English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 09/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.november09.22.htm
News Bulletin Achieves
Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
They do not belong to the world, just as I do not
belong to the world. Sanctify them in the truth; your word is truth
Saint John 17/14-19/:”I have given them your word, and the
world has hated them because they do not belong to the world, just as I do not
belong to the world. I am not asking you to take them out of the world, but I
ask you to protect them from the evil one. They do not belong to the world, just
as I do not belong to the world. Sanctify them in the truth; your word is truth.
As you have sent me into the world, so I have sent them into the world. And for
their sakes I sanctify myself, so that they also may be sanctified in truth.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November 08-09/2022
Macron meets Mikati, says president election a priority
Aoun slams MTV 'intimidation' as Bassil hits back at Berri
Berri says Aoun's 'strong president theory' has 'miserably failed'
Mikati denies 'any communication' with Israelis at Egypt climate meeting
USAID head in Lebanon to discuss support for population
Lawyer Ollaik rushed to ER, Judge Aoun orders his release
Lebanese pound surpasses 39,000 again
FPM asks members to boycott Sar el Waqt show
Britain, France raise hunger striker case with Sisi, as dozens in Beirut protest
Alaa's detention
Army chief receives United Nations Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace
Process
Mikati in his delivered word at UN climate conference (COP27): Lebanese
government made great strides in its response to combating climate change...
OHCHR, ESCWA hold regional seminar on “The Contribution of Development to the
Enjoyment of all Human Rights”
Mawlawi after meeting of Central Security Council affirms security apparatuses
“will do everything necessary to maintain order”
Significant rise in fuel prices in Lebanon
Lebanon: Berri Slams Slogan of ‘Strong President’
Lebanese security remains robust despite presidential vacuum, minister says
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
Biden Calls for a Free Iran
More than 1,000 Indicted as Iran's Judiciary Says it Will Deal Firmly with
Protesters
Iran Arrests 26 Foreigners over Deadly Shiraz Attack
Iran’s judiciary says it will deal firmly with protesters
Iran deploys mounted police in latest bid to supress Mahsa Amini protests
Tehran Toughens Stance against Protesters, Judiciary Threatens Capital
Punishment
Iranian Players Threatened, Praised after Refusing to Celebrate Victory at Int'l
Tournaments
Putin's Elite Tremble as Hardliners Call for ‘Stalinist’ Steps
Ukraine Could Soon Better Defend Itself in the Air. Here’s How
Israeli dies after West Bank stabbing, Palestinian held
Washington Discontent with Tentative System to Open 24-hour Crossings between
West Bank, Jordan
Jordan Warns Against Changing Status Quo of Al-Aqsa
Türkiye Announces ‘Voluntary’ Return of Over 500,000 Syrian Refugees
Biden agenda at stake -- and Trump in the wings -- as Americans vote
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November 08-09/2022
France Sliding toward Barbarity and Chaos/Guy Millière/Gatestone
Institute/November 08/2022
Biden’s Big Challenges After These Elections/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/November,
08/ 2022
Netanyahu's return to premiership/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November
08/2022
MENA Countries Stand to Lose the Most If the Ukraine Grain Initiative
Falters/Anna Borshchevskaya, Louis Dugit-Gros, Sabina Henneberg/ The Washington
Institute/November 08/2022
The Formation of Iraq’s New Government is a Major Victory for Iran and Its
Allies/Nawzad Shukri/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/November 08/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on November 08-09/2022
Macron meets Mikati, says president election a priority
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati held talks Tuesday in Sharm el-Sheikh with
French President Emmanuel Macron, on the sidelines of the U.N.'s COP27 climate
summit. “Discussions tackled the French efforts for addressing the Lebanese
situations,” Lebanon’s National News Agency said. Macron for his part stressed
“the priority of holding the Lebanese presidential election to regulate the work
of institutions.”Mikati also met Tuesday with U.N. chief Antonio Guterres and
discussed with him whether the U.N. "can make an endeavor to push forward the
process of electing a new president for Lebanon."He also met with British
Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly and
Tunisian Prime Minister Najla Bouden.
Aoun slams MTV 'intimidation' as Bassil hits back at
Berri
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
Former President Michel Aoun suggested Tuesday that some parties want to
“intimidate” the Free Patriotic Movement. “They want to intimidate us, so be
ready,” Aoun said during a surprise visit to OTV, referring to the clash that
recently took place at MTV. Aoun was accompanied by Free Patriotic Movement
chief Jebran Bassil. “They will launch a security and judicial campaign against
us,” Bassil warned. Responding to remarks by Speaker Nabih Berri about Aoun’s
“strong president theory,” Bassil said: “They did everything to make the strong
president theory fail.”
Berri says Aoun's 'strong president theory' has
'miserably failed'
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
The “strong president theory” that ex-President Michel Aoun used as a slogan for
his tenure “has miserably failed,” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has said. “A
strong president is one who can unite the Lebanese around him and around state
institutions, not one who practices the power of elimination and stokes up
disputes and sentiments,” Berri added, in a meeting with Press Syndicate chief
Awni al-Kaaki and the members of the syndicate. Asked about his health, Berri
said: “Health is good, but the country’s health is not.” As for the controversy
over the Taif Accord, the Speaker said: “The Taif Accord is not a composition
lesson, it is rather our constitution and the importance lies in implementing
it.” “The Accord made the Lebanese equal and pushed Muslims to be stricter than
Christians in preserving the current formula,” Berri added, noting that any of
the two religious communities’ leaders is not in favor of any formula that
contradicts with the current one. Berri also lamented that he has failed three
times to secure the creation of the National Commission for the Abolition of
Political Sectarianism, the approval of a non-sectarian electoral law and the
establishment of a senate.
Asked about accusations that he is “protecting” Central Bank Governor Riad
Salameh from prosecution, Berri said: “Ask those who extended his term … If he
is a wrongdoer I will not give him a cover.”
Mikati denies 'any communication' with Israelis at
Egypt climate meeting
Associated Press/November 8, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Tuesday denied “any communication with
any Israeli official,” after the website of Israeli newspaper Haaretz published
a photo showing him and Israel's environmental protection minister along with
several world leaders and officials at the U.N.’s COP27 climate summit in Egypt.
“A report is circulating in the media about the participation of an Israeli
minister in a specialized workshop at the climate conference in Sharm el-Sheikh
in the presence of (caretaker) PM Najib Mikati and the delegations of Iraq and
Palestine,” Mikati’s office said in a statement. “For clarification, the broad
meeting was held at an invitation from the presidents of Egypt and Cyprus and in
their presence, and with broad international and Arab participation, similarly
to the rest of the climate conference meetings, and it did not at all involve
any communication with any Israeli official,” the statement added. “The
objectives of the noise that the Israeli media fabricates at such conferences
have become known,” Mikati’s office said. Haaretz had earlier boasted that
“several countries that don't have official relations with Israel are
participating in the meeting in Sharm El-Sheikh, including Lebanon, Iraq and
Oman.”
“Israel's Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg took part in a
closed-door meeting at the United Nation's (sic) climate conference on Tuesday
with representatives of several countries that do not recognize Israel,
including Lebanon and Iraq,” Haaretz reported on its English-language website.
Haaretz claimed that Zandberg “met with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati,
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad
Shtayyeh, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Cypriot President Nicos
Anastasiades as well as officials from Iraq, Oman and Jordan.”
“The meeting between an official in the Israeli government and officials from
Lebanon and Palestine is considered extremely rare. The meeting was arranged by
Cypriot and Egyptian officials. According to sources, this is the first
high-level regional meeting on climate change that Israel is taking part in,”
Haaretz added. “Zandberg spoke during the meeting, though the Lebanese and
Palestinian did not join the applause following her speech,” the Israeli
newspaper noted. Zandberg’s office also said that the minister attended the
meeting alongside Iraqi and Lebanese leaders, where the conferees pledged to
work together to tackle climate change. Israel is still officially at war with
Lebanon and Israel and Iraq have no diplomatic relations and a history of
hostilities. While Lebanon and Israel recently signed a landmark, U.S.-brokered
maritime agreement, any hint that the two sides are open to cooperate even as
part of a regional setting would be controversial. Lebanon bans its citizens
from having any contact with Israelis and the sea deal was negotiated through
American shuttle diplomacy, with no Israeli or Lebanese officials ever publicly
meeting. The agreement by the member countries said the parties would work to
"strengthen regional cooperation" and "act in a coordinated way" on climate
change. "The countries of the region share the warming and drying climate and
just as they share the problems they can and must share the solutions. No
country can stand alone in the face of the climate crisis," Zandberg said in a
statement. In photos provided by her office, she is seen seated behind a small
Israeli flag. Two seats away from her is Iraqi President Abdul Latif Rashid and
across the room is Mikati, each behind their countries' flags.
USAID head in Lebanon to discuss support for
population
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
Samantha Power, the Administrator of the United States Agency for International
Development (USAID), arrived in Lebanon Tuesday for a three-day visit focused on
“providing support to the Lebanese people, particularly those impacted by the
country’s economic and humanitarian crisis,” the U.S. Embassy said. “More than
half of Lebanese households are in need of some form of food assistance -- a
situation that has been exacerbated by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s war
against Ukraine. This also has a negative impact on the millions of refugees
Lebanon graciously continues to host,” the Embassy added in a statement. During
her trip, the Administrator will engage with Lebanese government and business
leaders to press for urgent reforms and policies, and will also meet with those
working to combat corruption and strengthen the private sector. In addition,
Administrator Power will meet with Lebanese and Syrian students, and Syrian
refugees and residents from Lebanese host communities to convey “the United
States’ continued support.” Power will also visit USAID projects aimed at
building sustainable food systems and projects that harness renewable energy to
provide drinking water to communities in need, highlighting USAID’s efforts to
address the impacts of climate change in advance of her travel to Sharm
El-Sheikh, Egypt for the Conference of Parties (COP27).
Lawyer Ollaik rushed to ER, Judge Aoun orders his
release
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
Detained lawyer and activist was rushed Tuesday to the emergency room of al-Hayat
Hospital after his health deteriorated due to a hunger strike, the Mottahidoun
alliance of anti-corruption lawyers and activists said. “After he entered the
sixth day of hunger, water and medicine strike, the lawyer Ollaik was
transferred to the al-Hayat Hospital after his health condition deteriorated and
he started suffering severe low blood pressure,” the alliance said.Detained bank
depositors Ali al-Saheli and Catherine al-Ali are meanwhile continuing their
hunger strike for the fourth and second day, respectively, the alliance added.
The National News Agency later reported that Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge
Ghada Aoun had ordered the release of Ollaik and the depositor Ibrahim Baydoun
while referring Saheli and al-Ali to Mount Lebanon First Examining Magistrate
Nicolas Mansour. Ollaik, Saheli, al-Ali and Baydoun had been arrested for
storming Credit Libanais bank in Hazmieh after which Saheli, armed with a gun,
and wheelchair-bound Baydoun demanded that they be given their trapped savings.
Lebanese pound surpasses 39,000 again
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
The Lebanese pound's market value reached again 39,000 against the dollar
Tuesday after it had slightly recovered in the past few weeks. Last month, the
dollar exchange rate had dropped from LBP 40,600 to 36,000 on the black market,
shortly after Central Bank Governor Riad Salamah said in a statement that the
Central Bank would stop buying dollars on the Sayrafa platform. Few days after
Salameh's statement, the dollar started rising again until it exceeded 39,000 on
Tuesday. The country is now led by a caretaker government and a divided
parliament that has repeatedly failed to reach a consensus on a new president
amid an unprecedented financial and political turmoil. The Lebanese pound has
been officially pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, a rate that has not
reflected its true market value for years as the currency has been in free fall,
with multiple parallel exchange rates coexisting. After years of economic
mismanagement and endemic corruption, Lebanon sunk into an unprecedented
financial crisis in late 2019, dubbed by the World Bank as one of the world's
worst in recent history. The crisis has pushed most Lebanese into poverty, while
talks with the International Monetary Fund to unlock billions of dollars in
loans have stalled as Lebanese leaders have been unable to enact most reforms
demanded by the lender and donor countries.
FPM asks members to boycott Sar el Waqt show
Naharnet/November 8, 2022
The Free Patriotic Movement asked Tuesday its members and officials to boycott
the Sar el Waqt show, after a heated argument escalated into a large fistfight
last week in the studio of the popular political talk show hosted by journalist
Marcel Ghanem. “After the flagrant attack on the young men and women of the FPM
in the Sar el Waqt show, by the MTV security guards, all FPM officials and
activists are required to abide by the decision to boycott the program, whether
they are participating as guests or as audience members," the statement said.
The statement added that all FPM officials must obtain permission, report and
coordinate the content of any media appearance. Ghanem was forced to interrupt
the broadcast on Thursday night, while the fight continued outside the studio,
at the premises of the MTV building in Naccache. The MTV security guards
reportedly fired into the air and the army intervened and stopped the clash. MTV
said it will no longer receive FPM supporters in Sar el Waqt studio but that FPM
officials and MPs were welcome to participate in the show as guests.
Britain, France raise hunger striker case with Sisi,
as dozens in Beirut protest Alaa's detention
Associated Press/November 8, 2022
Britain and France have raised the case of a dissident hunger striker with
Egypt's President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, a day after the jailed activist started
refusing water. Alaa Abdel Fattah, a British-Egyptian, stopped drinking water on
Sunday to coincide with the opening of the COP27 climate summit in Egypt.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron both met
directly with Sisi and upped the pressure for his release, hours after three
Egyptian journalists said they had begun their own hunger strikes over his fate.
Egyptian journalist Mona Selim told AFP during a sit-in at the journalists'
union in Cairo that she and two colleagues had "stopped eating now because Alaa
Abdel Fattah is in danger of dying". She was speaking alongside Eman Ouf and
Racha Azab, the two colleagues who have gone on hunger strike with her.
Selim said that the three are also demanding the "liberation of all prisoners of
conscience" in Egypt. Such prisoners number more than 60,000 in Egypt, according
to rights groups -- jailed under the rule of Sisi, who deposed Islamist
president Mohamed Morsi in 2013, before being elected the following year. After
a seven-month hunger strike during which he consumed only "100 calories a day",
Abdel Fattah has refused food altogether since last Tuesday. On Sunday he
launched his "water strike", said his sister Sanaa Seif, who on Monday travelled
to Egypt's Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, where world leaders have gathered
for the COP27.
'Not a lot of time'
Sunak has said Abdel Fattah's plight is "a priority", and met with the Egyptian
president on Monday.
"The Prime Minister said he hoped to see this resolved as soon as possible and
would continue to press for progress," a spokesman for Sunak said, adding he had
stressed "the UK Government's deep concern on this issue".
Macron said he received an assurance from Sisi that the Egyptian president was
"committed to ensuring that (the) health of Alaa Abdel Fattah is preserved".
Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, the COP27 president, told CNBC
television that Abdel Fattah had "all the necessary care in prison". Activists
at COP27 have posted prolifically on Twitter under the hashtag #FreeAlaa and
several speakers have ended their speeches with the words "you have not yet been
defeated" -- the title of his book, prefaced by Canadian author Naomi Klein.
"There is not a lot of time -- 72 hours at best," Amnesty International chief
Agnes Callamard said in Cairo on Sunday, referring to Alaa Abdel Fattah's
possible remaining lifespan. She urged Egypt to release him and said that, "if
they don't, that death will be in every single discussion in this COP".
Abdel Fattah has since late last year been serving a five-year sentence for
"broadcasting false news", having already spent much of the past decade behind
bars.
In Lebanon's capital Beirut, around 100 people protested against his detention
near the British embassy, an AFP photographer reported. Abdel Fattah "embodies
the Arab world's fight against repressive authorities in the past 12-13 years,"
said journalist Diana Moukalled. "We are gathering today to raise our voice and
demand the release of Alaa and thousands of other political detainees in Egypt
and other Arab countries," she said.
Abdel Fattah's continued detention comes despite Egypt having granted
presidential pardons to a total of 766 political prisoners since the
reactivation of a pardon policy in April this year, according to data compiled
by Amnesty.
But over this period 1,540 political dissidents have also been put behind bars,
Amnesty says. The group Reporters Without Borders, in its 2022 World Press
Freedom Index, ranked Egypt 168 out of 180 countries.
Army chief receives United Nations Special
Coordinator for Middle East Peace Process
NNA/November 8, 2022
Lebanese Army Chief, General Joseph Aoun, on Tuesday welcomed at his Yarze
office, the United Nations Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace
Process, Tor Wennesland. Discussions reportedly touched on the current general
situation in Lebanon and the broad region.
Mikati in his delivered word at UN climate
conference (COP27): Lebanese government made great strides in its response to
combating climate change...
NNA/November 8, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, stressed that “Lebanon is one of the
countries highly affected by the impact of climate change, and studies prepared
by the Lebanese Ministry of Environment have estimated that climate change will
cause a decrease in Lebanon's gross domestic product and will exacerbate the
current predicaments and crises, which requires resolute action by everyone in
the short and long term."Caretaker Premier Mikati’s words on Tuesday came in his
word delivered at the UN climate conference (COP27), currently being held in
Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt.
"Today, I am here with a message of hope that we were and will remain active
partners in all the meetings that bring together the countries of the world to
discuss common concerns and seek to resolve the accumulated crises. At the
beginning, I must salute His Excellency President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who
opened the doors of Egypt to hold this forum and provide all the requirements
for its success. We thank Egypt for its continuous care and support to Lebanon,
under the guidance of President al-Sisi. I also salute His Excellency the
Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, for all the efforts
he is making to resolve international issues in all their directions. We also
thank him for the United Nations’ support to Lebanon," Caretaker Premier Mikati
said in his delivered word. “Lebanon is one of the countries highly vulnerable
to the effects of climate change, and studies by the Lebanese Ministry of
Environment have estimated that climate change will cause a 14% drop in
Lebanon’s GDP by 2040, and a further decline to 32% by 2080. I must point out
herein that, despite all the challenges facing us, the Lebanese government has
taken great strides in its response to combating climate change, as part of our
national commitments to cooperate with other countries.” Caretaker Premier said.
OHCHR, ESCWA hold regional seminar on “The
Contribution of Development to the Enjoyment of all Human Rights”
NNA/November 8, 2022
The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) and the United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) today kicked off
a two-day seminar on the contribution of development to the enjoyment of all
human rights in Arabic-speaking countries.
The seminar, held at the UN House in Beirut, is part of a series of regional
seminars - one for each of the five world regions - conducted before the
fifty-fourth session of the Human Rights Council. In his speech, Mr. Saadeh Al
Shami, Deputy Prime Minister of Lebanon, highlighted the dire socioeconomic
crisis in the country and its ramifications. “The more we delay reforms, the
higher the cost will be, and the more intractable our problems will become,” he
warned, adding that “when political and sectarian immunity prohibits
accountability, human rights are severely impaired”. Representatives from UN
agencies, regional and international organizations, national human rights
institutions and civil society organizations discussed the challenges and gaps
that impede the contribution of development to the enjoyment of human rights,
and shared best practice and experiences to tackle impediments. In a recorded
message, Mr. Federico Villegas, President of the Human Rights Council, said that
the international community had adopted a social contract affirming that human
rights, peace and security, and development were interrelated and
interdependent. For her part, UN Deputy High Commissioner for Human Rights Nada
Al-Nashif stressed that collective commitment, political will and concerted
action were required to face global challenges such as the climate emergency,
the fuel and food crises and armed conflicts. Participants also highlighted the
importance of international cooperation for sustainable development as it
promotes and protects human rights, contributes to ending poverty and creates
opportunities for youth. Mr. Tarik Alami, Lead of the Governance and Conflict
Prevention Cluster at ESCWA, affirmed that the right to development was an
inalienable right of every human being that increased the capabilities of
individuals through freedom of opinion and expression, and expanded their
choices. “We need to integrate the right to development with other rights, such
as the right to a clean, healthy and sustainable environment, to food, and to
water and sanitation, especially in our region, which is increasingly struggling
to achieve water and food security with the increasing effects of climate
change,” he added. A report of the five regional seminars will be presented at
the fifty-fourth session of the Human Rights Council.
Mawlawi after meeting of Central Security Council
affirms security apparatuses “will do everything necessary to maintain order”
NNA/November 8, 2022
Caretaker Minister of Interior, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, on Tuesday affirmed after
a meeting by the Central Security Council that it was the duty of all the
country’s security apparatuses to maintain order through all the available
means. “During the period of [presidential and governmental] vacuum, our
ministry and all the country’s security apparatuses will exert all the necessary
efforts to maintain security and order because it is the request of all the
Lebanese citizens alike."Mawlawi then declared that the number of crimes in
Lebanon was not not increasing in comparison to the same period last year,
adding that the security situation in Tripoli “is much better." Mawlawi further
stressed "the freedom of the media and the protection of its property,"
explaining that what had happened during a political talk show aired live on MTV
“is now in the custody of the judiciary." He then affirmed that the medical and
health conditions in Lebanon’s prisons were improving and that the cholera
vaccine was being provided to prisoners on all Lebanese territories. Mawlawi
finally stressed that the situation in Syrian refugee camps was “very well
controlled”, adding that “the Information Division has managed to arrest 8
terrorist cells during the year 2022.”
Significant rise in fuel prices in Lebanon
NNA/November 8, 2022
Fuel prices have significantly increased in Lebanon on Tuesday, with the price
of the canister of gasoline rising by LBP 34,000, that of diesel by LBP 22,000,
and that of LP gas by LBP 10,000.
Consequently, prices are as follows:
95-octane gasoline: LBP 777,000
98-octane gasoline: LBP 794,000
Diesel: LBP 879,000
LP gas: LBP 437,000
Lebanon: Berri Slams Slogan of ‘Strong President’
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Lebanon’s Speaker Nabih Berri has stressed that the idea of the “strong
president” that former President Michel Aoun had carried as a slogan for his
tenure has “failed miserably.” During a meeting on Monday with the Press
Syndicate, headed by Awni Kaaki, Berri said that a strong president “is the one,
who brings the Lebanese people together and around state institutions, not the
one who exercises the power of exclusion and fuels differences.” He told his
visitors that rising poverty, severe power cuts and a series of other crises
should prompt lawmakers to immediately elect a new president. Berri added that
he was hinging on the factor of time for the concerned parties reach consensus
on a candidate amid lack of quorum at the parliament. “Lebanon and the Lebanese
cannot tolerate a further deterioration” in the economic and political
situation, he warned. The speaker affirmed that he will continue to call for a
weekly session to elect a president. On the other hand, he emphasized that
security was under control. Asked about his alleged support for the central bank
governor, Berri said: “Ask those who extended his term.” He added: “If he’s
implicated (in corruption), then I do not cover him.”
Lebanese security remains robust despite presidential
vacuum, minister says
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 08, 2022
BEIRUT: As the Lebanese state continues to operate without a new president in
place, the security services will take all necessary steps to maintain order,
the country’s acting interior minister said on Tuesday. Following a meeting with
the Central Internal Security Council, caretaker minister Bassam Mawlawi said
security is something all Lebanese require and “it is the duty of security
bodies to maintain it using all available means.”He said the number of crimes is
“low compared to the same period last year” and “the situation in the Syrian
refugee camps is highly under control.” Members of eight terrorist cells have
been arrested this year, he added. Meanwhile, the Lebanese army command
announced that some units “have conducted exercises that simulate dealing with
protesters, conducting raids and arresting wanted persons in Amchit, Tripoli,
Jbeil, Beirut and Saida.”
The exercises “are part of the training following the concept of
counterterrorism operations SOFEX 2022, implemented with the participation of
American and British training teams,” the command said. An exercise in the
coastal city of Jounieh simulated the handling of a security incident inside a
bank and the arrest of the perpetrators. In recent weeks, amid growing
frustration among bank customers over not being allowed to withdraw their
savings, a number of customers, some armed, have stormed banks demanding their
cash.
Army chief Joseph Aoun said: “This presidential vacuum period that the country
is witnessing amid political tensions between parties might be accompanied by
attempts to exploit the situation in order to compromise security.”
The presidential vacuum, following the conclusion of President Michel Aoun’s
term at the end of October without any agreement among parties on a replacement,
entered its second week on Tuesday and there appeared little hope that a new
president would be chosen on Thursday during a fifth parliamentary session
called by speaker Nabih Berri.
Meanwhile, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati is attending the UN Climate
Change Conference, COP27, in Sharm El-Sheikh. On the sidelines of the event he
met on Tuesday with French President Emmanuel Macron, who emphasized the need as
a matter of “priority to carry out the Lebanese presidential elections, in order
to achieve the regular functioning of institutions,” according to Mikati’s media
office. Hezbollah and its allies have yet to announce their preferred
presidential candidate. Parliamentary blocs that oppose Hezbollah have nominated
MP Michel Mouawad, while independent MPs have nominated academician Issam
Khalifeh. Army chief Aoun said that his troops are not involved in the political
conflicts and will not take sides. “What matters to the army, first and
foremost, is maintaining stability and civil peace,” he said. “We will not let
anyone take advantage of the situation and turn our country into an arena
susceptible to security incidents and suspicious movements. Security disruption
is not allowed. It has always been one of the army’s fundamental constants and
will remain so.”
Rami Rayyes, an adviser to the head of the Progressive Socialist Party, told
Arab News: “The greater the political exposure in Lebanon, the higher the risk
of economic and security deterioration, especially in the absence of effective
constitutional authorities.”
He said the makeup of parliament does not allow any one party to unilaterally
exercise power, “therefore consulting each other is inevitable.”
Meanwhile, Barbara A. Leaf, the US assistant secretary of state for near eastern
affairs, warned that “Lebanon is open to all scenarios, including a complete
disintegration of the state. The Internal Security Forces and the Lebanese Armed
Forces might lose control and mass immigration might take place.”
She was speaking at an event devoted to US policy in Lebanon, which was hosted
by the Wilson Center and moderated by David Hale, a former American ambassador
to Lebanon. “I believe that the diplomats themselves will pack up their
belongings and move to Europe,” said Leaf. “It is not the duty of foreign
diplomats to go to parliament and put pressure on the cabinet to elect a
president. “We are putting pressure on political leaders to carry out their
work; however, nothing will have the same impact as public pressure and, sooner
or later, it will mount again.”
Leaf stressed that Lebanon urgently needs to elect a president and appoint a
prime minister, then form a government that has full authority to make important
decisions, including fundamental reforms and approval of loans of the
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for funding energy deals.
She said the US is ready to work with the government to help ensure Lebanon has
an administration with the full authority to take official action to implement
the required economic reforms.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on November 08-09/2022
Biden Calls for a Free Iran
FDD/November 08/2022
Latest Developments
“We’re gonna free Iran,” said President Joe Biden on Thursday. “They’re gonna
free themselves pretty soon.” A White House spokesperson appeared to back-pedal
the statement the next day, saying that Biden was merely “expressing, again, our
solidarity” with Iranian protestors rather than articulating a new U.S. policy.
Still, the president’s declaration constitutes an apparent endorsement of regime
change in Iran, implicitly repudiating his current policy, which centers on
engaging the regime in hopes of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal.
Expert Analysis
“President Biden has belatedly yet rightly affirmed the imperative of regime
change in Iran, but he must go further. The White House should explicitly revoke
its offer of sanctions relief to Iran. Washington must not provide an economic
lifeline to a regime that continues to massacre its own people. – Tzvi Kahn, FDD
Research Fellow and Senior Editor
Protests Continue
Protests continue to consume Iran as casualties mount, with more than 300
reported deaths, including 41 children and 24 women, since the unrest began in
September. Tehran has arrested as many as 14,000 people, according to Javaid
Rehman, the UN’s special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the
Islamic Republic of Iran, and indicted approximately 1,000 of them. Many face
the death penalty.
Growing International Solidarity with the Iranian People
America and its allies have issued increasingly robust statements criticizing
Iran’s human rights abuses while downplaying their previous emphasis on reviving
the 2015 nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA). On Friday, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United
Kingdom, and the United States issued a joint statement expressing “support for
the fundamental aspiration of the people of Iran for a future where human
security and their universal human rights are respected and protected.” On
October 17, the European Union sanctioned 11 individuals and four entities for
human rights abuses, noting that Iran’s violent crackdown on peaceful protesters
is “unjustifiable and unacceptable.”
Canada has passed four rounds of sanctions targeting dozens of Iranian officials
and entities complicit in human rights abuses. In an October 29 speech, Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau alluded to the desirability of regime change, saying,
“Even years from now, when perhaps there will be a change of regime and things
will be better in Iran, those people responsible now will never be forgotten.”
A Dying Nuclear Deal
The White House increasingly appears to recognize that Tehran lacks any interest
in reaching a nuclear deal consistent with Western interests. U.S. envoy for
Iran Robert Malley said on October 31 that the Biden administration would not
“waste time” trying to resuscitate the JCPOA. However, it remains unclear
whether the White House would advocate pursuing the deal if protests faded. To
eliminate such ambiguity, President Biden should reject further talks and adopt
a policy of maximum pressure on Iran.
More than 1,000 Indicted as Iran's Judiciary Says it
Will Deal Firmly with Protesters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Iran's courts will deal firmly with anyone who causes disruptions or commits
crimes during the ongoing wave of anti-government protests, the judiciary said
on Tuesday. More than 1,000 people have been indicted in connection with what
the government calls "riots". "Now, the public, even protesters who are not
supportive of riots, demand from the judiciary and security institutions to deal
with the few people who have caused disturbances in a firm, deterrent and legal
manner," judiciary spokesman Masoud Setayeshi said. Anti-government
demonstrations erupted in September after the death of a Kurdish woman Mahsa
Amini, who had been detained by morality police for allegedly flouting the
strict dress code imposed on women. The activist HRANA news agency said that 318
protesters had been killed in the unrest as of Saturday, including 49 minors.
Thirty-eight members of the security forces had also been killed, it said. State
media said last month that more than 46 members of the security forces,
including police officers, had been killed.
Iran Arrests 26 Foreigners over Deadly Shiraz Attack
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Iran has arrested 26 foreign nationals over their alleged involvement in a
deadly attack claimed by ISIS on a shrine, the intelligence ministry said
Monday. At least 13 people were killed on October 26 in an armed attack on the
Shah Cheragh mausoleum in Shiraz, according to an official toll.
"The intelligence ministry has identified and arrested all agents involved in
the terrorist operation in Shiraz," said a statement published on the ministry's
website. According to the statement, the 26 are from Azerbaijan, Tajikistan and
Afghanistan. They were arrested in the provinces of Fars, Tehran, Alborz,
Kerman, Qom and Razavi Khorasan, as well as along Iran's "eastern border", AFP
quoted the ministry as saying. The perpetrator of the attack in Shiraz,
identified by the intelligence ministry as Sobhan Komrouni, died of wounds
sustained while he was being arrested. The ministry said he was "a Tajik
national" known as Abu Aisha. It added that the main coordinator of attacks in
Iran, an Azeri national, was also arrested, having entered the country through
Tehran's international airport from Baku. He had been in contact with an ISIS
network abroad after arriving in Tehran, it added.On October 31, the ministry
announced that several others had been arrested, including an "operational
support element" identified Monday as Mohammed Ramez Rashidi, an Afghan
national.
Iran’s judiciary says it will deal firmly with
protesters
Reuters/November 08, 2022
DUBAI: Iran’s courts will deal firmly with anyone who causes disruption or
commits crimes during a wave of anti-government protests, the judiciary said on
Tuesday, signalling the authorities intend to hand down harsh sentences to
convicted demonstrators. One of the biggest challenges to Iran’s clerical
leaders since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the demonstrations have already
persisted for eight weeks despite tough security measures and severe warnings
from security forces. In a rare move, authorities have deployed a posse of
police on horseback in Tehran's streets to stifle the demonstrations, according
to a video posted on social media. More than 1,000 people have been indicted in
Tehran Province alone in connection with what the government calls “riots.”“Now,
the public, even protesters who are not supportive of riots, demand from the
judiciary and security institutions to deal with the few people who have caused
disturbances in a firm, deterrent and legal manner,” judiciary spokesman Masoud
Setayeshi said. The anti-government demonstrations erupted in September after
the death of a Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, who had been detained by morality
police for allegedly flouting the Islamic Republic’s strict dress code imposed
on women. The activist HRANA news agency said that 318 protesters had been
killed in the unrest as of Saturday, including 49 minors. Thirty-eight members
of the security forces had also been killed, it said. State media said last
month that more than 46 members of the security forces, including police
officers, had been killed. Government officials have not provided an estimate of
any wider death count. Iranian leaders have accused enemies including the United
States of fomenting the unrest. Hard-line Iranian lawmakers have urged the
judiciary to “deal decisively” with the perpetrators.
“For how long can we tolerate this?” Setayeshi said. People from all walks of
life have taken part in the nationwide protests, with students and women playing
a prominent role, waving and burning headscarves. Two Iranian journalists are
facing charges of collusion against national security and propaganda against the
state, Setayeshi said, adding that the two were in prison under a temporary
arrest warrant and that their case was about to be finalized. One of those
facing charges is Niloofar Hamedi, who worked for the pro-reform Sharq daily and
was the first to signal to the world that all was not well with Amini with a
photo of her parents hugging each other in a Tehran hospital. The second
journalist is Elaheh Mohammadi, who covered Amini’s funeral in her Kurdish
hometown of Saqez, where the protests began. Some 300 Iranian journalists last
month demanded their release.
Iran deploys mounted police in latest bid to supress
Mahsa Amini protests
AFP/November 8, 2022
Iran has deployed mounted police in the capital Tehran, in a bid to put an end
to more than seven weeks of protests sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa
Amini. The theocratic state has been rocked by a protest movement that erupted
when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died after her arrest for allegedly breaking Iran's
strict hijab dress rules for women. Young women have led the demonstrations,
removing and burning their head coverings, chanting anti-regime slogans and
confronting security forces on the street despite a crackdown that has killed
dozens. In a rare move, the authorities have deployed police on horseback in
Tehran's streets to stifle the demonstrations, according to verified posts on
social media.The special unit has been seen on patrol in front of a row of
Iranian national flags on a major road in the northwestern neighbourhood of
Sadeghiyeh.
Protests met with lethal force. Created in 2013, the mounted division of Iran's
police force has been seen on the streets of the Iranian capital in the past –
mainly during parades – but it is uncommon to see it deployed during protests.
The Iranian authorities have adopted a range of tactics in a bid to suppress the
protests, which officials refer to as "riots".
Tehran Toughens Stance against Protesters, Judiciary
Threatens Capital Punishment
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Iranian officials have sharpened their threats against anti-regime protesters
with the country's hardliner Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Ejei announcing on
Monday his support for delivering the death penalty against demonstrators. “The
deputy head of the judiciary and the public prosecutor are following up on a
daily basis the files of key figures in the recent unrest,” Ejei said on the
third day of the eighth week of civil disobedience following the death of
22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini in police custody. Ejei also vowed to
intensify the punishment of those arrested during the protests following a call
by the parliament members who have urged the judiciary to issue death sentences
for the protesters. “Whoever carries a firearm or a cold weapon and uses it as
an agent of the enemy, threatens the security of the country and raises terror
in any region, and at the same time kills a person, retribution (execution) may
be carried out against them, and other charges may apply,” said Ejei. Despite
backing calls for serving capital punishment to some protesters, Ejei said that
the judiciary will differentiate between demonstrators those who were moved
emotionally to participate in the unrest and those who committed crimes and
acted on foreign orders. “The enemies have received a resounding defeat and are
trying to carry out harmful actions,” state-run ISNA news agency quoted Ejei as
saying. Later, a court in Tehran convicted three protesters of “war against
god.”The official IRNA news agency stated that the three detainees were brought
before the judiciary on charges of sabotaging public funds by setting fire,
disrupting public order, assembling, collusion, and carrying out attacks against
the regime. A lawyer for one of the defendants said that his client had burned
tires on a highway, which are not considered public money. Hassan Hassanzadeh,
commander of Revolutionary Guards forces in Tehran, threatened to deal with
protesters “strictly” on Monday. He said that the Revolutionary Guards and the
police had arrested 14 people they believe are involved in the killing of a
prominent member of the Basij forces, west of Tehran. “The judiciary will deal
seriously with those who committed crimes and caused the death of security
personnel,” said Hassanzadeh. “Our security ability to identify and arrest those
who stir unrest remains high,” the commander added in an interview with the
Revolutionary Guard's affiliated Fars News Agency.
Iranian Players Threatened, Praised after Refusing to
Celebrate Victory at Int'l Tournaments
Paris - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Players of the Iranian beach soccer and wrestling teams were on Monday hailed as
heroes on social media but risked sanctions at home after an apparent gesture in
solidarity with the anti-regime protest movement at an international tournament.
The Iranian team on Sunday won the Emirates Intercontinental Beach Soccer Cup in
Dubai 2-1 against Brazil thanks to a goal from Saeed Piramoun. The team did not
celebrate when awarded the cup for winning the title, instead standing sternly
with their arms crossed. Rather than celebrating his strike, Piramoun stopped
and made a clear scissor-like gesture above his head with his fingers to mimic
cutting his hair, according to several videos posted on social media. Hair
cutting, in and outside Iran, has become a symbol of solidarity with the
protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality
police for allegedly flouting Iran’s dress rules.
The beach soccer team had already been under scrutiny after apparently not
singing the Iranian national anthem before their semifinal, images showed. That
gesture prompted state television to cut the livestream, AFP reported.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Greco-Roman wrestlers won the 2022 Greco-Roman wrestling
world cup after beating hosts Azerbaijan in Baku on Sunday. However, they also
chose not to celebrate their victory, Asriran news website reported. Both teams’
decision not to celebrate their victory, as well as Piramoun’s haircut gesture
immediately prompted a cascade of memes on social media, where the player was
applauded for his courage. The legend of Iran’s national football team, Ali Daei,
posted on his Instagram account pictures of the Iranian beach soccer and
Greco-Roman wrestling teams and wrote: “Thank you and greetings to the national
heroes in my country.”
Many Iranian websites circulated a photo of Daei's account on their Telegram
channels. “An Iranian national team with honor,” tweeted former Iranian
footballer and ex-Bayern Munich star Ali Karimi who has been an impassioned
supporter of the protests, posting a video of Piramoun’s gesture. Making no
reference to the controversy, President Ebrahim Raisi on Sunday congratulated
the beach soccer team for showing “an example of a brilliant and strong Iran on
the international arena. “This game and this win may be forgotten, but this
gesture cannot be forgotten. More important than the championship was the honor
you showed,” tweeted former Iranian international player Mehrdad Pooladi.
Without naming Piramoun, Iran’s football federation said it would discipline all
those deemed to have failed to keep politics out of the field of play. “Based on
FIFA and Iran’s regulations regarding avoiding political behavior in sport,
those who have not followed professional and sporting ethics must be treated in
accordance with the rules,” it said in a statement. Government newspaper Iran
criticized the Emirati police who it said had taken “no measure” against
spectators who, it said, had chanted “anti-Islamic Republic” slogans after the
match. Dubai is home to a major community of Iranian exiles, and in September
Iran welcomed back the UAE ambassador after a six-year downgrading of ties. But
the paper said: “If this country (UAE) does not react appropriately, it will
have to accept the consequences of this action that is hostile to Iran.”Sports
has become a hugely sensitive arena in the protests, especially ahead of Iran’s
participation in this year’s football World Cup in Qatar. Sports climber Elnaz
Rekabi caused a sensation last month when she climbed without a headscarf —
obligatory for all Iranian women even while competing abroad — at a competition
in South Korea. Upon her return to Iran, she apologized and said the hijab had
fallen off by accident. But activists argued her gesture was deliberate and she
had been pressured by the authorities into expressing regret. Earlier this
month, top Tehran football side Esteghlal also refused to celebrate after
winning the Iranian Super Cup with its footballer Siavash Yazdani in a post
match interview dedicating the victory to “women and those who lost loved ones.”
Putin's Elite Tremble as Hardliners Call for ‘Stalinist’
Steps
Bloomberg/November 8, 2022
The rise of outspoken hardliners in the Kremlin is alarming insiders fearful the
Russian president will heed their calls for even more confrontation abroad and
sweeping repression at home.
Senior business executives and government officials have watched with growing
worry as players they once considered marginal like Yevgeny Prigozhin, known for
his Wagner mercenary company and recruiting of prison inmates to fight in
Ukraine, have become the public forces behind Vladimir Putin’s push to step up
his increasingly all-encompassing war effort.
Prigozhin’s public calls for “urgent Stalinist repressions” against business
tycoons who aren’t sufficiently enthusiastic about supporting the war effort
have led some rich Russians to fear for their own safety and that of their
families, they said. Prigozhin’s open attacks on top military commanders - some
of whom have been subsequently removed - and the prominent Putin ally who is
governor of St. Petersburg, have added to worry within the bureaucracy about the
Kremlin’s unwillingness or inability to defend its own.
With Kremlin officials now describing the invasion of Ukraine as a “people’s
war,” hearkening back to the World War II rhetoric of Josef Stalin, a few
insiders even say they fear the purges and arbitrary arrests of the the Soviet
dictator’s rule may not be far behind. Amid the call-up of 300,000 reservists,
officials furtively asked each other if family members were safe, worried about
too openly admitting that they’d sent their military-age children abroad.
One senior official likened the current situation to a military dictatorship but
without the military coup that usually precedes it. The dominant emotion now is
fear, insiders said. All those interviewed for this article spoke on condition
of anonymity, citing the risk of reprisal.
The deepening alarm about the outlook so far hasn’t coalesced into anything like
internal resistance to Putin’s continuing escalation, according to insiders.
Many in the leadership support what they see as an existential fight for
Russia’s future and see no alternative but to keep boosting the pressure until
Ukraine and its allies in the US and Europe back down. A few officials once
thought of as relative liberals, such as Sergei Kiriyenko, Kremlin deputy chief
of staff, have emerged as enthusiastic public advocates of the war.
While Putin has said the mobilization is over, at least for the moment, many in
the business and bureaucratic elite worry the militarization of the economy and
society is only accelerating. The special commission of top government and
security official Putin set up to coordinate economic policy to support the
defense industry and the army has been compared to Stalin’s war cabinet.
“The state has lost the monopoly on legalized violence and new operators of this
former monopoly have appeared,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a political scientist
who left Russia in the early weeks of the war. “It’s strange that Putin is
encouraging this.”
Nearly nine months of fighting has only hardened the view among many in the
business and economic elite that Putin’s invasion was a catastrophic mistake
that will doom the country to isolation and weakness. Even within the
government, many quietly oppose the fight but are too terrified to speak out,
according to people close to the leadership. Tycoons have sought to stay out of
politics, hoping to remain on the Kremlin’s good side and keep factories
running. Only a few have left the country and publicly criticized the war.
Putin has no alternative but to rely on aggressive players like Prigozhin and
Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman head of Russia’s Chechnya region who has sent
thousands of troops to fight, given the poor performance so far of Russia’s
regular military and tepid support for the war in his own government, according
to one senior official. Both men have heavily armed forces loyal to them.
“Prigozhin is behaving like a parallel government,” said Andrei Kolesnikov of
the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He may be able to compete for
power, if not under Putin then after him.”
Known as ‘Putin’s chef’ for his background in the restaurant business in the
president’s hometown of St. Petersburg and Kremlin catering contracts, Prigozhin,
61, has been sanctioned by the US and its allies for a range of alleged
transgressions, including meddling in US elections and sending mercenaries to
Africa and the Middle East. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation put him on
its wanted list in 2021 for vote interference.
After years of playing down his links to the Wagner private military contracting
company, Prigozhin in late September publicly confirmed he’d founded the group
in 2014. On Nov. 4, he opened a glass-and-steel skyscraper in St. Petersburg
called the Wagner Center. This week, he sarcastically admitted his role in
meddling in US elections, saying it would continue.
He’s shown up in leaked videos from prisons around Russia where he promised
inmates the chance of early release if they sign up to fight in Ukraine and last
six months at the front. At the same time, he warns they’ll be summarily shot
for desertion or attempting to surrender. Prigozhin’s press office declined to
confirm he was in the videos, but said the person in them “looked frightfully
like” him. Over the weekend, Prigozhin announced Wagner plans to set up training
centers for “militias” in border regions near the war zone. Fighters would come
from “local businesses,” which would send a quarter of its male workforce to
“the trenches,” he said in a commentary posted on Telegram, promising to fund
the preparations himself.
Prigozhin earlier this month, filed a rare complaint with prosecutors against
the governor of St. Petersburg, a Putin ally and longtime rival of the tycoon.
The Kremlin’s public silence in the case has shocked insiders.
Prigozhin has appeared wearing the Hero of Russia medal, the country’s highest
honor, but how frequently he and Putin meet remains unclear. Some Kremlin
insiders said Prigozhin now meets with the president more often than before,
while others said he’s not a member of the small group of hardliners closest to
Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “There are lots of rumors about
Prigozhin. We don’t have any intention to comment on them."
Prigozhin said he hasn’t spoken to Putin. He is seen as an ally of the new
commander Putin installed to run the Ukraine operation in October, Sergei
Surovikin, who was known for his harsh tactics in Syria, where they fought
together with Wagner troops.
US intelligence has told President Joe Biden that Prigozhin spoke directly to
Putin about the war, countering upbeat reports from the military, according to
the Washington Post.
Prigozhin has made common cause with Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, with both at
times questioning the skills of the military leadership, especially when
Ukraine’s forces were actively retaking territory in September.
Insiders describe the Russian president as increasingly isolated, surrounded by
a small group of hardliners and impervious to critical views. With its forces
struggling to contain a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Kremlin has dropped
months of trying to insulate the country from the reality of the conflict.
Putin has steadily stepped up the fight since Ukrainian forces began pushing
back his troops in large areas over the late summer. So far, his mobilization of
reservists, sweeping expansion of missile strikes against civilian
infrastructure like power plants behind the lines in Ukraine and hints of
possible use of nuclear weapons haven’t succeeded in turning the tide. Ukraine’s
advance is continuing, with Russia losing territory Putin claimed to annex in
September. Last month, he ordered versions of martial law across large areas of
Russia. Government technocrats, meanwhile, have been tasked with revising budget
and economic plans to reflect the steadily increasing shift of resources to fund
the war. They’ve also been assigned to computerize the mobilization process to
avoid a repeat of the disorganization and mistakes that plagued the first round.
Many officials expect another round to be announced early next year.
“The mood of doom that everything has turned out this way is very strong,” said
Tatyana Stanovaya, founder of R Politik, a political consultancy.
Ukraine Could Soon Better Defend Itself in the Air.
Here’s How
Armani Syed/Time/November 8, 2022
As Russian missiles and airstrikes rain down on Ukraine—damaging up to 40% of
the its infrastructure in the past month—the country may soon be able to better
defend against the growing barrage of attacks thanks to new weapons deliveries
from Western allies.
On Monday, Ukraine received its first NASAMS air defense systems from the U.S.
and Aspide units from Spain. As the military assistance packages arrived,
Oleksiy Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, tweeted: “Look who’s here! NASAMS
and Aspide air defence systems arrived in Ukraine! These weapons will
significantly strengthen #UAarmy and will make our skies safer. We will continue
to shoot down the enemy targets attacking us.”Monday’s deliveries come weeks
after Ukraine received its first of four Iris-T air defense systems from
Germany, the first such advanced weaponry Kyiv received since the war began.
NASAMS, or National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, are medium-range
air defense systems that can identify, engage, and destroy aircraft,
helicopters, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles. They also protect
valuable military assets or mass population centers.
“They detect the threat, identify that it is a threat-as opposed to an aircraft
or something like that-then it would launch the missile,” says Tom Karako,
director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank’s
Missile Defense Project.
NASAMS were developed in the 1990s by Raytheon, a U.S defense conglomerate, in
tandem with Kongsberg, a Norwegian defense and aerospace firm. The systems have
been deployed to protect Washington, D.C. from aerial threats since 2005.
Meanwhile, Aspide is a medium-range air-to-air and surface-to-air missile
system. It was produced by Italian company Selenia in the 1970s, primarily for
the Italian Armed Forces. In September, Spain trained 20 Ukrainian military
personnel on how to use Aspide. In November, a further 400 Ukrainian soldiers
will arrive in Spain to be trained at the Infantry Academy in Toledo. “It’s not
just about the very specific characteristics of a particular missile or a
particular system. But this is about adding to the overall Ukrainian capacity
for defense,” Karako says of the military assistance Ukraine is receiving.
How can these defense systems protect Ukrainian infrastructure?
While these systems are effective and reliable, Karako says the defended area
covered by NASAMS and Aspides will be “rather modest” and a handful of launchers
can’t defend the whole of Ukraine. This means the systems are best placed to
defend specific targets of elevated personal and financial value.
“What I would say is that every bit helps and air defense is one of Ukraine’s
highest priorities for defense, and they need not merely more launchers but lots
more rounds for them. This is what has held Russian air superiority at bay,”
says Karako.
According to a report published on Monday by RUSI, a British security and
defense think tank, Ukrainian air defenses are currently shooting down the
majority of Iranian-made Shahed-136 “kamikaze drones” and around half of
Russia’s cruise missiles by using surface-to-air missiles, fighter aircrafts
with air-to-air missiles, portable rocket launchers known as MANPADS, and
anti-aircraft guns. But enough drones and missiles have made it past Ukraine’s
defenses to wreak havoc on the country’s infrastructure, leaving millions in
blackouts without running water or electricity.
If NATO member states continue to provide military assistance in the form of
ammunition and launchers, Ukraine will be able to protect remaining electricity
infrastructure and repair work, the report added. “With rolling blackouts
already affecting much of the country and the weather already getting cold, the
urgency of these requirements is hard to overstate.”But some Western nations
have been cautious about providing Ukraine with such powerful weapons due to a
fear of provoking President Vladimir Putin into drastic action.
What could happen if Ukraine loses control of its skies? The RUSI report
concludes that Ukraine’s defenses have so far prevented Russia from razing
cities to the level of destruction seen in Syria, after Putin formally
intervened in the country’s civil war in 2015 to prop up the regime of Bashar
al-Assad.
Sergei Surovikin—nicknamed “General Armageddon”—commands the war in Ukraine. He
also oversaw Russia’s intense aerial bombardment of Syrian cities like Aleppo.
But the RUSI report warned that Ukraine could run out of air defense weapons,
and that continued supplies will be needed. “The West must avoid complacency
about the need to urgently bolster Ukrainian air-defence capacity,” RUSI’s
report said.
Israeli dies after West Bank stabbing, Palestinian held
Reuters/November 08, 2022
JERUSALEM: An Israeli store-owner has died after being stabbed in the occupied
West Bank two weeks ago, his family said on Tuesday, bringing Israel’s death
toll from Palestinian attacks this year to 26. More than 100 Palestinians have
been killed by Israeli forces in the same period in what the United Nations said
is set to be the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since the
organization began tracking fatalities in 2005. The latest Israeli to die owned
a store in the Jewish settlement of Kdumim. He received hospital treatment after
the Oct. 25 stabbing but his condition deteriorated, his family said.
The Israeli military said it had arrested the suspected assailant in a nearby
Palestinian village. Violence in territories where Palestinians seek statehood
has surged since Israel launched a crackdown in March in response to a spate of
lethal street attacks in its cities. Among the dead in Israel were two foreign
workers, police said.
Washington Discontent with Tentative System to Open
24-hour Crossings between West Bank, Jordan
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Israel has launched a pilot program to open the crossings between the West Bank
and Jordan around the clock, after months of pressure from the US
administration, which viewed the matter as a positive initiative towards the
Palestinians in the absence of a political horizon. However, Washington voiced
discontent with the Israeli plan, as it had expected the pilot program to extend
for weeks or months. Spokespersons for the Ministry of Transport and the
Airports Authority told The Times of Israel that a trial period has been
launched to test the ability of the Allenby Bridge crossing between the West
Bank and Jordan to operate around the clock. The launch of the program was
postponed several times, which had angered the US administration. The United
States announced during the summer that the Allenby Bridge (King Hussein)
crossing would be open 24 hours a day throughout September, so that West Bank
Palestinians could travel abroad through Jordan. But that did not happen, as the
Israeli authorities informed the Americans that they did not have enough staff
to meet the schedule. The idea of a trial program was proposed instead, and the
Ministry of Transportation announced that it would be launched on October 24.
However, the head of the Airports Authority objected to presenting the plan in
the middle of an election campaign. Thus, the Directorate of the Airports
Authority met at a later time and decided to go ahead with the plan for one
week. The Director-General of the General Administration of Palestinian Borders
and Crossings, Nazmi Muhanna, confirmed on Monday the change of working hours at
Al-Karamah border point, which is the first crossing that leads to the Allenby
Bridge. In a statement, Muhanna said that Al-Karamah crossing would operate 24
hours a day for one week, from Sunday morning until Friday at 12:30 pm. The
Americans expressed their dissatisfaction with the plan. A senior US official
said that the United States expected the trial program to extend over several
weeks or months at least. The US initiative came in light of a stifling crisis
that Palestinians usually encounter during the summer period, as they have to
pass through three crossings to exit the Palestinian territories. The
Palestinians are forced to pass through the Palestinian Karama Crossing and
stamp their passports, then pay a tax before they move in buses to the Israeli
Allenby Crossing, to be subjected to a second inspection and then via buses to
King Hussein Bridge, for a third inspection before entering Jordan. As for those
who will travel outside Jordan, they will also have to head to Queen Alia
Airport. The journey takes several hours, with long queues and high costs for
departure and entry taxes, travel allowance and baggage transfer.
Jordan Warns Against Changing Status Quo of Al-Aqsa
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Jordan warned the incoming Israeli government against changing the status quo of
Al-Aqsa Mosque, stressing that any such attempt would harm relations between the
two states and with other countries in the region. Israeli public broadcaster
Kan quoted Jordanian officials as specifically mentioning far-right lawmaker
Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish power) party, who has been
visiting the holy site, which led to clashes with Muslim worshippers. They
accused Ben-Gvir of “making provocations” that would damage the ties between the
neighboring countries if he continues to undermine the status quo as a future
minister. A coalition led by the right-wing former Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu has won a majority of seats in the 120-seat Knesset, allowing
gun to return to power. Reports have previously speculated that Netanyahu
promised Ben-Gvir the position of Public Security Minister.
Ben Gvir visiting the site and “making provocations” would be a whole different
story if he does so as a government minister, the channel quoted the Jordanian
sources as saying. “If, in his capacity as minister, Ben Gvir were to commit
other acts of provocation,” the sources warned, “the consequences would be
alarming.” The sources said that they hoped that Netanyahu is aware of the
importance of relations with Jordan, which - they noted – “is the country with
the longest border with Israel.”Ben Gvir and others in the Religious Zionism-Otzma
Yehudit alliance have long pushed for changes to the status quo, under which
only Muslims are allowed to worship within the compound while Jews are allowed
to visit the site but not pray there. In recent years, they have visited in
ever-increasing numbers with police escorts and many have discreetly prayed,
angering the Palestinians as well as Jordan. The Palestinians have long feared
that Israel plans to eventually take over the site or partition it. These
warnings came in light of Israeli reports that indicate Ben Gvir’s willingness
to push the army and police against the Palestinians, tighten measures against
prisoners, and allow Jews to storm Al-Aqsa Mosque without any restrictions.
Jordan is custodian of the Temple Mount, Al-Aqsa Mosque, and other holy sites in
Jerusalem under a previous Jordanian-Israel agreement and a Palestinian mandate
for the Jordanian king as the guardian of the holy sites.
Türkiye Announces ‘Voluntary’ Return of Over 500,000 Syrian
Refugees
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 8 November, 2022
Türkiye’s deputy Interior Minister Ismail Catakli refuted on Monday reports
about the compulsory deportation of Syrian refugees after being forced to sign
voluntary return forms. He affirmed that his country seeks to provide a safe
environment for their return in the areas it is clearing in northern Syria.
Catakli announced that a total of 531,326 Syrians have so far returned to the
safe zones established by Ankara in northern Syria, adding that there are
currently 3,611,143 Syrians in Türkiye. He affirmed that as is the situation in
other countries, Türkiye is also affected by migrants, noting that Turkish
security services are making strenuous efforts to prevent illegal migration. The
number of complaints from Syrians residing in Türkiye and human rights
organizations has recently increased, citing “an escalation of forced
deportations of young people, some of whom are studying in Turkish universities
and others who hold temporary protection cards,” after they were forced to sign
voluntary return forms. Many Syrians said their situation worsened in Türkiye
after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced in early May a plan to encourage
one million Syrian refugees to return to their country by building them housing
and local infrastructure there. Some said that the pressure of the Turkish
opposition, in light of preparation for the upcoming presidential and
parliamentary elections, prompted Erdogan's government to expedite the
deportation of Syrians. Türkiye has rejected allegations of arbitrary detention
and deportation of dozens of Syrians to their country during the past months.
The Presidency of Migration Management described a recent report by Human Rights
Watch, in which it accused Turkish authorities of arresting and deporting Syrian
refugees arbitrarily, as “scandalous and far from reality.”It affirmed that
Syrians are signing the voluntary return form in the presence of a witness, and
that they are directed to the way out towards their country. It also indicated
in a statement that over 500,000 Syrian refugees have returned “voluntarily” to
areas in northern Syria since 2017 and accused the human rights organization of
ignoring international praise for Türkiye’s “exemplary” policy adopted regarding
refugees.
Biden agenda at stake -- and Trump in the wings -- as
Americans vote
Agence France Presse/November 08/2022
Americans headed to the polls on Tuesday in midterm elections in which
Republicans are chasing a congressional majority that would paralyze President
Joe Biden's agenda and serve as a springboard for another White House run by
Donald Trump. Biden's Democrats are facing a
gargantuan struggle to hang on to Congress, after a race the president has cast
as a "defining" moment for U.S. democracy -- while Trump's Republicans
campaigned hard on kitchen-table issues like inflation and crime.
"It's Election Day, America," the 79-year-old Biden tweeted as polling
stations opened on the East Coast. "Make your voice heard today. Vote."
At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, one-third of
the Senate and a slew of state and local positions. Five states are holding
referendums on abortion -- California, Vermont, Kentucky, Montana and Michigan.
First results will begin trickling in after 7:00 pm (0000 GMT) but with
razor-thin margins in some key congressional races a full picture may not be
available for days or even weeks, setting the stage for likely acrimonious
challenges. The bitter political divide in the country
was on the minds of many voters as they cast their ballots."I hope that we'll
get a better mix of candidates and that both sides can actually work together to
solve our issues instead of fighting against one another," said Sarah Hunt, a
41-year-old teacher as she cast her ballot in New York.
"There's so much polarization and misinformation that I'd like to make
sure that my voice is heard," said Robin Girdhar, a 61-year-old doctor at a
polling station in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Trump --
who has all but announced he will seek the White House again in 2024 -- grabbed
the election eve spotlight to flag "a big announcement" on November 15, while
Biden made a final appeal to Democrats to turn out en masse.
"The power's in your hands," Biden told a rally near the capital. "We know in
our bones that our democracy is at risk and we know that this is your moment to
defend it."Polls show Republicans in line to seize the House, which would allow
them to snarl the rest of Biden's first term in aggressive investigations and
opposition to spending plans.
'Giant red wave'
Returning to the White House Monday night, Biden told reporters he believed
Democrats would hold on to the Senate but it would be "tough" to retain the
House and his life in Washington may become "more difficult."
If both the House and Senate flip, Biden would be left as little more
than a lame duck and his legislative agenda would be frozen. That would raise
questions over everything from climate crisis policies, which the president will
be laying out at the COP27 conference in Egypt this week, to Ukraine, where
Republicans are reluctant to maintain the current rate of U.S. financial and
military support. An influx of far-right Trump backers in Congress would also
accelerate the shift that has been taking place inside the Republican Party
since the former real estate tycoon stunned the world by defeating Hillary
Clinton for the presidency in 2016. Despite facing criminal probes over taking
top secret documents from the White House and trying to overturn the 2020
election, Trump has been using the midterms to cement his status as the de facto
Republican leader and presumptive presidential nominee.
In a typically dark, rambling speech to supporters in Dayton, Ohio, the
76-year-old Trump said, "if you support the decline and fall of America, then
you must, you absolutely must vote for the radical left, crazy people.""If you
want to stop the destruction of our country, then tomorrow you must vote
Republican in a giant red wave," he said -- before teasing his 2024
announcement. Across the country voters called on
their fellow citizens to cast their ballot in the midterms, which historically
have low turnout. "Vote, vote, vote," Luke Osuagwu, a
24-year-old student, told AFP in Atlanta, Georgia.
"Abortion is probably the biggest issue for me," said Alexandra Ashley, a
30-year-old lawyer as she cast her vote in Pittsburgh. "I want to make sure it's
available for everybody and safe."
- 44 million early votes -
More than 44 million ballots were cast through early voting options, meaning the
outcome had already begun to take shape before election day. Senate races in
Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Ohio are
expected to be close and any one of them could swing the balance of power in the
chamber. Trump has already claimed -- baselessly -- that swing state
Pennsylvania "rigged" the midterms -- reprising his playbook from the 2020
election which he falsely asserted was stolen by Biden. Citing growing support
for voter conspiracy theories among Trump and his Republicans, as well as their
push to curb abortion access, Biden has warned that democracy and basic rights
are at stake on Tuesday. Republicans have countered that a vote for Democrats
means more soaring inflation and rising violent crime, seeking to make the
midterms a referendum on the president.
The outcome will likely determine whether Biden, who turns 80 this month and is
the oldest president ever, will seek a second term in 2024 -- or step aside.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on November 08-09/2022
France Sliding toward Barbarity and Chaos
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/November 08/2022
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants enter Europe illegally each year. Many head
for France and stay there. They have been benefiting, since 2000, from financial
aid and free medical care to which even poor French citizens do not have access.
If they are arrested, like Lola's murderer, they are ordered to leave the
country, but are not placed in a detention center so the order, never enforced,
is not an order at all. In 2020, 107,500 orders to leave France were issued;
fewer than 7% took place.
Approximately 48% of all crimes committed in Paris in 2021, he notes, were
committed by illegal immigrants. Murders almost as gruesome as Lola's -- most of
which are committed by illegal immigrants -- are committed nearly every day. No
one even mentions them. The victims often have their throats slit.
Maurice Berger, a psychiatrist, speaks of "gratuitous violence": violence for no
other reason than the pleasure of committing it. He reports that in France,
gratuitous violence resulting in injury or death happens, on average, every two
minutes. France reports more than two hundred rapes a day.
In L'archipel français ("The French Archipelago")... sociologist Jérome Fourquet
writes of a French "collective nervous breakdown" and the "crumbling" of French
society. He notes that the religious and historical moorings of the French
people are disappearing: churches are empty, important moments in the country's
history are no longer taught in schools... France's Muslim population, on the
other hand, maintains its culture, customs and traditions, assimilates into
French society less and less, and appears more and more filled with contempt and
hatred for France...
Speaking about a "great replacement" of the population in France is taboo.
Anyone who does it is immediately demonized and described as a follower of
conspiracy theories. But the numbers are clear... In addition to hundreds of
thousands of illegal immigrants already in France, approximately 400,000 more
immigrants from Africa and the Arab world enter France each year. At the same
time, hundreds of thousands of French people emigrate from France annually. In
2018, the most recent year for which figures are available, 270,000 French
people left. Over the past 20 years, the number of French people living abroad
has increased by 52%.
Whenever someone is arrested, injured or killed by the police in or near a no-go
zone, riots break out. When an arrest turns violent, the police are asked to let
criminals seeking refuge in a no-go zone escape. The government evidently fears
that a larger conflagration might occur.
Inside classrooms, in high schools and primary schools, the French educational
system is subject to Islamic intimidation.... Those who might have thought that
the beheading of Samuel Paty would lead the authorities to make drastic
decisions were proven wrong. Today, teachers throughout France report the
relentless threats they receive. In the complaints they file, many say that
Muslim students threaten "doing a Samuel Paty" to them.
Economically, France is in decline. French GDP has gone from fifth in the world
in 1980 to tenth today.... France is among the European countries which impose
the heaviest tax burden on its population (45.2% of GDP in 2022). France also
has the highest level of public expenditure in the developed world (57.9% of GDP
in 2022) -- and an increasing share of public expenditure goes toward financial
aid to immigrants, legal and illegal.... Taxes, however, are insufficient to pay
for these public expenses....
"Worse than the rise of barbarity is the feeling that our leaders are in denial
and unable to take the strong and effective decisions that would be necessary to
ensure the protection of the population. Barbarity spreads when the authorities
no longer know how to be the guarantors of law and order." — Céline Pina,
author, Le Figaro, October 19, 2022.
Lola, a 12-year-old French girl, was recently raped and murdered in Paris by an
Algerian illegal immigrant. Illegal immigrants in France are the perpetrators of
nearly half of crimes committed. Murders almost as gruesome as Lola's are
committed nearly daily. The psychiatrist Maurice Berger reports that in France,
crimes of gratuitous violence resulting in injury or death happen, on average,
every two minutes. France reports more than two hundred rapes a day. Pictured:
Protesters hold portraits of Lola reading "Lola could have been our little
sister," in Paris on October 20, 2022. (Photo by Emmanuel Dunand/AFP via Getty
Images)
October 15. The corpse of a 12-year-old girl hidden in a big plastic box is
discovered on a sidewalk in the eastern part of Paris. The victim's name was
Lola. She was the daughter of the caretakers of the building where the murder
took place.
Witnesses, fingerprints and images from surveillance cameras quickly lead police
to arrest a woman. She confessed but said she had absolutely no remorse. The
details she gave, confirmed by the autopsy, are that she gagged Lola with tape,
undressed her, tied her to a chair, raped her with objects, partially cut her
throat, put the blood in a bottle and drank it, smoked a cigarette, then
finished slitting Lola's throat and beheaded her. The woman stabbed the corpse
multiple times before placing it in a plastic box, and took it down to the
street.
The woman, a 24-year-old Algerian named Dahbia B., came to France on a student
visa but did not leave after it expired in 2018. She had already been arrested
by the police this August, ordered to leave France -- and then released. She
should not have been in France in the first place. Had she been deported, and if
the French police and department of justice had done their job, Lola would still
be with us.
"The suspect in this barbaric act should not have been on our territory," said
Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally Party. "Too many crimes and offenses
are committed by illegal immigrants whom we have not been willing or able to
send back home."
"When will we defend our children against attacks committed by the same people,
always at the expense of the same people," asked former journalist Éric Zemmour,
president of the Reconquest Party.
"This criminal immigration laxity revolts me," said Eric Ciotti, one of the
leaders of the Republicans Party.
Instead of acknowledging flaws in police procedures and promising to improve
security, the French government offered Lola's parents condolences.
President Emmanuel Macron waited two days to receive the victim's parents
briefly. He did not say a word in public. No political decisions regarding
illegal immigration and its links to increased crime in France were announced,
no political decisions will be taken.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne told the political leaders that they had shown no
respect for the pain of the victim's family. She accused them of "indecency" and
asked them to be quiet.
"Using a 12-year-old kid's coffin like a stepping stool to indulge in diatribes
is shameful," Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti added.
A lawyer, Gilles-William Goldnadel, suggested that the government preferred
silence so that no one would talk about how extremely lax its immigration policy
is, as well as the consequences. It was indispensable to face the situation
urgently without looking away, he said.
The borders between France and other European countries are open and, like all
the borders of Europe, porous. Hundreds of thousands of immigrants enter Europe
illegally each year. Many head for France and stay there. They have been
benefiting, since 2000, from financial aid and free medical care to which even
poor French citizens do not have access. If they are arrested, like Lola's
murderer, they are ordered to leave the country, but are not placed in a
detention center so the order, never enforced, is not an order at all. In 2020,
107,500 orders to leave France were issued; fewer than 7% took place.
Illegal immigrants in France are the perpetrators of nearly half of crimes
committed in the country, according to the recently published L'ordre nécessaire
("The Necessary Order"), by Didier Lallement, former chief of the Paris Police.
Approximately 48% of all crimes committed in Paris in 2021, he notes, were
committed by illegal immigrants. Murders almost as gruesome as Lola's -- most of
which are committed by illegal immigrants -- are committed nearly every day. No
one even mentions them. The victims often have their throats slit. When the
mainstream media report on the murders, they do not talk about slit throats.
They say the victim was "stabbed in the neck."
The French now live in a climate of generalized violence. Maurice Berger, a
psychiatrist, speaks of "gratuitous violence": violence for no other reason than
the pleasure of committing it. He reports that in France, gratuitous violence
resulting in injury or death happens, on average, every two minutes. France
reports more than two hundred rapes a day. Berger, in Sur la violence gratuite
en France ("On Gratuitous Violence in France"), notes that usually the assaults
have a racist dimension: the victims are always white people, the aggressors are
almost always Arabs or Africans -- details omitted by the commentators. Polls
show that the French population are seeing violence rising sharply: 68% of
French people say they feel their lives are increasingly insecure, and 75% say
that the record of Macron and the government fighting crime is poor. 70% believe
that illegal immigration is a serious problem. Nevertheless, in May 2022, a
majority of voters re-elected Macron and rejected candidates who promised to
fight crime and illegal immigration.
In an apparent attempt to explain this odd outcome, many commentators say that
the French population now expects the downfall of their country. They quote
surveys, carried out year after year, which show that the French population is
the world's most pessimistic. An overwhelming majority of French people
evidently think the future will be worse than the present. A poll published in
April 2022 states that 77% of French people are certain that the country will
not overcome the present economic and social crisis; a poll published in
September 2022 show that 67% of French people think that the global situation
will worsen due to climate change and that the planet has no future. In
L'archipel français ("The French Archipelago"), published in 2019, sociologist
Jérome Fourquet writes of a French "collective nervous breakdown" and the
"crumbling" of French society. He notes that the religious and historical
moorings of the French people are disappearing: churches are empty, important
moments in the country's history are no longer taught in schools. He adds that
France's Muslim population, on the contrary, maintains its culture, customs and
traditions, assimilates into French society less and less, and appears more and
more filled with contempt and hatred for France, which many of them accuse of
colonizing the Muslim world and exploiting Muslim workers.
Speaking about a "great replacement" of the population in France is taboo.
Anyone who does it is immediately demonized and described as a follower of
conspiracy theories. But the numbers are clear. Former Secretary of State for
Foreign Trade Pierre Lellouche recently said that "40% of children aged 0 to 4
are immigrants or of immigrant origin as of the last census". In addition to
hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants already in France, approximately
400,000 more immigrants from Africa and the Arab world enter France each year.
At the same time, hundreds of thousands of French people emigrate from France
annually. In 2018, the most recent year for which figures are available, 270,000
French people left. Over the past 20 years, the number of French people living
abroad has increased by 52%.
Speaking about the 750 no-go zones ("zones urbaines sensibles") growing on the
outskirts of all France's big cities, and ruled by Islamic gangs and radical
imams, is also taboo. Many books describe the seriousness of the situation. In
his book Les territoires conquis de l'islamisme ("The Conquered Territories of
Islamism"), published in 2020, the sociologist Bernard Rougier wrote:
"Islamist networks managed to establish enclaves in the heart of working-class
neighborhoods.... ideological and institutional centers located in the Arab
Middle East and the Maghreb can successfully disseminate their concept of Islam
there".
The meticulous data in the book did not elicit any response from the French
government. Whenever someone is arrested, injured or killed by the police in or
near a no-go zone, riots break out. When an arrest turns violent, the police are
asked to let criminals seeking refuge in a no-go zone escape. The government
evidently fears that a larger conflagration might occur.
Since the beginning of September, scenes of violence have been taking place in
front of high schools in the Paris suburbs: French law prohibits religious
symbols at school, and groups of Muslim high school girls claim a right to wear
the Islamic hijab in class. High school principals, obligated to obey the law,
prohibit it. Groups of young Muslims (mostly boys) respond with acts of looting.
Inside classrooms, in high schools and primary schools, the French educational
system is subject to Islamic intimidation. In 2002, historian George Bensoussan
published Les territoires perdus de la république ("The Lost Territories of the
Republic"), in which he disclosed that it was now impossible to talk about the
Holocaust in high schools in France. In 2017, he published Une France soumise
("A Submissive France"), which shows that the situation had become even worse.
It was no longer possible, in French high schools and primary schools, to speak
of secularism and tolerance. One teacher, Samuel Paty spoke of secularism, and
on October 16, 2020, paid with his life.
Those who might have thought that the beheading of Samuel Paty would lead the
authorities to make drastic decisions were proven wrong. Today, teachers
throughout France report the relentless threats they receive. In the complaints
they file, many say that Muslim students threaten "doing a Samuel Paty" to them.
Jewish teachers face anti-Semitic threats and insults. The principal of a high
school in the suburbs of Paris recently received an anonymous letter threatening
a teacher who happened to be Jewish. "We are going to do a Samuel Paty to him
and his father, the old Zionist rabbi," the letter said. "We don't want Jews in
high schools. Stay in your synagogues! We will take care of the teacher when he
exits the high school". The principal filed a complaint. It will probably come
to nothing. Year after year, 80% of such complaints filed in France do not lead
to further action.
Economically, France is in decline. French GDP has gone from fifth in the world
in 1980 to tenth today, and GDP per capita has gone from fifth in the world to
twenty-third during the same period. France's weight in the global economy has
fallen from 4.4% in 1980 to 2.3% today. France is among the European countries
which impose the heaviest tax burden on its population (45.2% of GDP in 2022).
France also has the highest level of public expenditure in the developed world
(57.9% of GDP in 2022) -- and an increasing share of public expenditure goes
toward financial aid to immigrants, legal and illegal. "We have one of the most
generous social models in the world," Macron said, "it is a strength".
Taxes, however, are insufficient to pay for these public expenses, so France's
national debt is rapidly increasing. The revolt of the "yellow vests,"
originally over the rising cost of fuel, started in November 2018, and lasted
until the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. At the time, France had 9.3
million people living under the poverty line (on an income not more than 1,063
euros per month), and surveys showed that hundreds of thousands of families were
suffering from malnutrition. Since the "yellow vests" were not Muslim rioters,
the security services under Macron reacted to their protests with violent
repression: dozens of demonstrators lost an eye, a hand, a foot, or part of
their brain function after a skull fracture. The decision by the French
government to lock all French people in their homes for months in the name of
the pandemic extinguished the revolt (France has had one of the strictest
lockdown policies in Europe). These controls lasted until a few days before the
first round of the presidential election in April 2022. The French economy
suffered as a result of the lockdown. The number of poor people increased
sharply and now stands at 12 million (18.46% of the population). During the
third quarter of 2022, 9,000 French companies closed down; and 160,000 French
companies declared themselves insolvent between January and June 2022.
In Èric Zemmour's Le suicide français ("The French Suicide"), published in 2014
when he was still a journalist, he wrote that France was dying, and that if
courageous, essential decisions were not taken urgently, would not survive.
Saying that these decisions were now a matter of life or death for the country,
he ran for president in 2022, and received just 7.3 % of the vote.
Essayist Céline Pina writes that the murder of little Lola, the reactions of the
murderer after the crime and the government's attempt to impose silence about
the event, mark another step in France's slide towards collapse, barbarity and
chaos:
"The horror of the ordeal that this child had to live through, the fact that the
atrocities took place during the day, in Paris, the fact that the presumed
author of the act is once again a foreign person in irregular situation and
under an obligation to leave French territory, all these elements mean that
behind the particularly horrific nature of this murder, we find recurring
elements that relate to other cases and to a larger situation.... The murder of
Lola reveals the disappearance of all civilizational achievements...
"Worse than the rise of barbarity is the feeling that our leaders are in denial
and unable to take the strong and effective decisions that would be necessary to
ensure the protection of the population. Barbarity spreads when the authorities
no longer know how to be the guarantors of law and order."
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27
books on France and Europe.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Biden’s Big Challenges After These Elections
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 08/ 2022
President Biden will be one of the losers in the November 8 elections. He and
his Democratic party had hoped that the issue of legal abortion would attract
most voters, but the Republican Party found that inflation in the economy is the
stronger political issue. Most political analysts here agree that the Republican
Party will win control of the House of Representatives and it might win control
also of the Senate. We probably will not know which party controls the Senate
for days and weeks after the November 8 polling. As the elections in states like
Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada will be very close, there will be
re-counts of votes and cases brought to courts as in 2020. The possibility of
violence against election workers will slow the recounting and final
confirmations.
Control of the Senate is especially important for the Biden. The Senate has the
constitutional authority to confirm senior officials to jobs in the Biden
administration, and there are still important jobs waiting in many departments,
including at the State Department and the Department of Defense. (For example,
the ambassadors in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.) In addition, if the Republican Party
controls the House of Representatives, it will investigate Biden
administration’s actions with immigration, the withdrawal from Afghanistan in
2021 and the Justice Department’s treatment of Donald Trump. Many Republican
representatives will demand the Senate conduct impeachment trials for Biden
officials like the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security and
perhaps even President Biden. Even if Biden escapes an impeachment trial, his
domestic agenda with Congress will be totally blocked. Therefore, like
presidents before him, he will focus more on foreign policy in the last two
years of his term. Biden will spend more time on the war in Ukraine where
already many Republican Party figures are warning that Washington should reduce
its aid to Kiev. Biden will surely want to visit Europe to encourage more
European solidarity with Ukraine and to show that he is still a world leader. In
addition, Biden will work to build stronger alliances in Asia with countries
like India, Japan, Australia, the Philippines and South Korea to deter China
from attacking Taiwan. Biden likely will want to visit Asia again.
In contrast to Europe and Asia, don’t expect Biden action in the Middle East.
After the OPEC-plus decision to reduce oil production in October, Biden received
sharp criticism for his July visit to Riyadh. The victory of Netanyahu in Israel
will not give the Biden administration room for cooperation on the peace
process. Biden will not want to engage in a big fight with Israel before the
difficult American election in 2024. Because the left wing of the Democratic
Party criticizes many Israeli actions, Biden also will not want to show
unlimited support that a visit to Israel would signal. Therefore, Biden’s visit
to Egypt this week for the climate change conference is likely his last visit to
the region during his first term. Iran could be a friction point between Biden
and Netanyahu. It it is hard to imagine Biden will reach a deal with Iran about
its nuclear program now, and the politics in Washington are strongly against it.
But with the Ukraine war ongoing and the big China threat, the Biden
administration will be reluctant to strike Iran militarily if there is no clear,
fast way to end a war with Iran. As Obama found in Syria, the Republican Party
won’t help him.
Finally, if the Democrats lose badly on November 8, there will be more pressure
on Biden inside his party for him not to run for re-election. Biden does not
generate enthusiasm with voters. According to a Reuters-Ipsos poll last week, 55
percent of American voters disapprove of his performance since 2021, and the
most shocking result in the survey is that 54 percent of young Democratic voters
disapprove of his performance. Young voters are a key base of the party. Many
people at the election rally with Biden at Florida University last week left
early in the middle of the President’s speech. Barak Obama, by contrast,
attracts large, enthusiastic crowds. Obama is 17 years younger than Biden, and
many Democratic voters want a new generation of leaders to replace traditional
leaders like Biden. Already some Democratic party figures are urging the left
wing and its younger supporters not to encourage a competitor to Biden in the
2024 presidential primary elections. If the November 8 results are bad for the
Democratic Party, candidates from the left wing will tempted to run against
Biden in the primary elections. Biden could win the nomination of the party, but
he would be weaker facing the Republican candidate in 2024. Carter had this
problem in 1980 when Ronald Reagan crushed him.
Netanyahu's return to premiership
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November 08/2022
The government that Bibi will form is nothing but a natural result of the rise
of the extreme right in Israel with the complicity of extremist Palestinian
groups such as Hamas or Islamic Jihad.
Whenever an Israeli government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu is formed, it is
said his government is the most right-wing since the establishment of the state
of Israel.
Every time Bibi is able to outdo himself, in order to return to the position of
prime minister. We see him this time in an alliance with the far-right Itamar
Ben Gvir, one of the most prominent political figures in Israel today. Ben Gvir
has become the head of "Religious Zionism", the third largest party in the
Israel parliament. The Likud leader also allied himself with the extremist MK
Bezalel Smotrich.
Ben Gvir, 45, who wants Netanyahu to appoint him as minister of internal
security, represents the worst in Israeli society, which is becoming more and
more extremist. At the age of 14, he joined the very extreme Kach movement.
Now-banned in Israel and the United States, the movement was founded by
American-born Rabbi Meir Kahane, known for its fanatical and racist views
towards anything that is not Jewish, as well as his enmity towards Palestinians
and Arabs and his constant incitement to kill them.
The government that Bibi will form is nothing but a natural result of the rise
of the extreme right in Israel with the complicity of extremist Palestinian
groups such as Hamas or Islamic Jihad. These factions have placed themselves at
the disposal of foreign forces. They did everything in their power to serve the
Israeli extremist right, which opposed the Oslo Accord claiming “there is no
Palestinian party with which to negotiate.” Certainly, some of the blame falls
on the shoulders of the Palestinian Authority, which emerged from the Oslo
process. The PA has never realised the importance of the time factor, even
though one might ask if Israel ever actually wanted peace with the Palestinians.
Hamas and all those behind it, especially the Iranian regime, have not missed an
opportunity to strike at a peace project, no matter how modest it was. The
Israeli far-right and the Muslim Brotherhood are reaping the fruits of what they
sowed.
“Bibi” Netanyahu's return to the office of prime minister can only reflect this
alliance between extremists, which boasts among its dubious achievements the
Hebron massacre of 1994, on the one hand and the suicide operations of Hamas on
the other. Hamas operations were instrumental in making Israeli society wary of
anything related to peace or peace-making. Above all, it remains it be seen
whether a new Israeli administration which includes Itamar Ben Gvir-type
ministers can be acceptable to the United States, Europe and the region. The
answer is that such a government cannot coexist with others in this world. It
cannot deal with the Arab world, where many countries have established normal
relations with Israel.
Such a government will not be able to work with the countries of the region, nor
function within Israel itself. It will be a government without a political
horizon unless it is to bring the roof down upon everybody.
Bibi can change hues to suit the occasion. This time internal, regional and
international realities require far reaching change. That would mean the
formation of a government that includes the extreme right, in the short term and
later building alliances with acceptable personalities. Among these figures is
Benny Gantz, defence minister in the government of Yair Lapid and a former army
chief of staff. Gantz's importance is that he knows the region and has good
relations with the United States.
Israel cannot, if it really wants to confront the Iranian threat, seclude itself
from and abandon American support.
Above all, no matter how loud Ben Gvir and others shout and no matter how much
Netanyahu resorts to political manoeuvring, sooner or later Israel will have to
face the fact that there are between seven and eight million Palestinians
between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River. There are some two million
Palestinians in Israel itself, two million Palestinians in Gaza and three
million Palestinians in the West Bank. There is a need for a political solution,
simply because there is no way for the Palestinians to go away, especially since
the bonds that unite the Palestinians rise above the bidding of Hamas and
Islamic Jihad.
The Likud faction won the Israeli elections. When we look at Bibi's record, we
see a first grade opportunistic politician. He has a natural tendency to
undermine or block any process under the pretext of making settlements a reality
on the ground, especially in the West Bank. But at the same time he knows that
the stage is not one of confrontation with the current US administration, in the
way he did with Barack Obama's White House. The world has changed after the war
in Ukraine and in light of the Iranian threat to the countries of the region.
Israel cannot adjust to global changes with governments that include the likes
of a terrorist such as Itamar Ben Gvir.
MENA Countries Stand to Lose the Most If the Ukraine
Grain Initiative Falters
Anna Borshchevskaya, Louis Dugit-Gros, Sabina Henneberg/ The Washington
Institute/November 08/2022
Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western
countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other
assistance as counter-leverage.
On October 29, Moscow briefly suspended its participation in the implementation
of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) after Russian warships were attacked in
the Crimean port of Sevastopol. In practice, this meant pausing its involvement
in key aspects of the deal such as conducting multinational inspections of grain
vessels and scheduling new ships to arrive at Ukrainian ports—factors that could
grind the initiative to a halt if Russia suspends its participation indefinitely
and resumes its naval blockade. When announcing the decision, Moscow claimed
that the attack was a “terrorist act carried out by the Kyiv regime with the
participation of British experts against ships of the Black Sea fleet and
civilian vessels involved in the security of grain corridors”—though the
incident actually took place far from any of the humanitarian corridors brokered
by the UN and Turkey this summer.
Fortunately, transport ships largely ignored Russia’s decision and continued
delivering grain, and the Kremlin soon reversed its suspension. Yet the incident
was just one in a series of Russian efforts to weaponize the grain agreement,
and more such efforts can be expected when the BSGI comes up for renewal on
November 19, despite the fact that the G7 foreign ministers have called to
extend it. If Moscow succeeds in undermining the deal, the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) will be especially affected.
The MENA Food Crisis Is Acute
When Russia invaded Ukraine and blockaded the country’s Black Sea ports, it
stood to prevent the delivery of around 25 million metric tonnes of grain and
other food staples to international markets, spurring a global food crisis. Left
unchecked, the situation portended social unrest and other pressures in areas
such as the MENA region, which is particularly vulnerable to the resultant nexus
of rising prices for fuel, food, and other essentials.
President Vladimir Putin is well aware of this vulnerability and has repeatedly
tried to use it as leverage against the West. Russia and Ukraine are responsible
for a third of the world’s wheat and barley exports, one-fifth of its corn
exports, half of its sunflower oil exports, and much of its fertilizer. MENA
countries are especially dependent on these supplies and were already suffering
from a spike in cereal prices before the war, mainly due to a combination of
drought and global economic shocks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The
Ukraine invasion sent food prices soaring even higher, raising fears that some
MENA countries could eventually run out of staples such as wheat. Of particular
concern were nations struggling with preexisting political and economic
instability, namely, Afghanistan, Egypt, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Syria,
Tunisia, and Yemen.
The BSGI and Russian Obstruction
On July 22, Russia and Ukraine signed the BSGI in Istanbul, with the UN and
allied Western states viewing it as part of a wider effort to curb the
invasion’s effects on global food markets. The parties established a Joint
Coordination Centre in Istanbul to implement the deal and inspect grain
transport vessels, with Moscow promising to unblock three Black Sea ports and
allow passage of grain ships along agreed sea corridors. In exchange, the UN
signed a separate memorandum of understanding with Moscow on grain and
fertilizer exports, stating that members would work to exempt these goods from
sanctions. The fertilizer provisions were especially important to Russia because
it is the world’s largest exporter of that agricultural necessity.
Less than twenty-four hours after signing the deal, however, Russia undermined
it by launching four long-range missiles at the key grain port of Odessa.
Although the strikes did not damage the city’s grain silos or shut down its
shipments, the message was clear: the Kremlin was able and willing to obstruct
the BSGI anytime it pleased. Indeed, it continued to threaten withdrawal from
the deal in subsequent months.
In September, Moscow put the agreement under review, claiming that grain was
being shipped to Europe but not the MENA region. Importantly, this gambit took
place in the context of Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv.
In October, Moscow claimed without any proof that the West was not upholding its
pledges regarding fertilizer exemptions. Russian officials then warned that the
deal’s November extension would depend on the West “ensuring full implementation
of all previously reached agreements.”
Who Benefited?
Even amid Russian obstructionism, the BSGI was successfully implemented and
helped bring food prices down. Since early August, approximately 10.1 million
metric tonnes of food have left the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhnyi/Pivdennyi.
Of this amount, 70 percent benefited non-Western countries, with approximately
one-third going to MENA countries. Turkey, Egypt, Libya, Israel, Tunisia,
Algeria, and Iran received the most significant quantities in the region, in
that order. Afghanistan and Yemen, two countries suffering from acute
humanitarian crises, were also among the recipients, as were Iraq, Lebanon,
Morocco, Oman, and Sudan.
Additional food deliveries have been made to MENA states via the European
Union’s “solidarity lanes,” a set of humanitarian ground corridors launched in
May. This breakdown offers only a partial view as it does not take into account
grain first sent to third-country ports and then reexported to the region. As of
October, the total amount of cereals moved by land and sea had reached 22
million metric tonnes—roughly 12.5 million via the EU solidarity lanes and 10
million through the BSGI. According to figures issued by the UN Conference on
Trade and Development, these efforts effectively closed the gap between post-
and pre-war weekly grain cargo, helped drop the Food and Agriculture
Organization’s food price index for six consecutive months, and decreased price
volatility as well.
MENA Remains Vulnerable
Although the BSGI accounts for only 40 percent of Ukrainian grain moved,
suspending it again would have ripple effects throughout global markets, likely
exacerbating various food crises. For example, the most widely traded cereal
future, Chicago wheat, increased by 6 percent the day after Russia briefly
withdrew from the initiative. MENA countries could be shaken by such turbulence
even more so than other regions, partly due to their aforementioned internal
vulnerabilities, and also because they depend so much on Ukrainian grain
harvests that are projected to decrease in 2023-2024 due to the war.
Maintaining the BSGI is also crucial to offsetting factors such as climate
change, poor governance, rising global demand, and food export bans, all of
which will continue to put upward pressure on food commodity prices regardless
of what happens in Ukraine. In addition to exacerbating the humanitarian crises
in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, any further price increases would hurt MENA
countries that are currently struggling with drought (e.g., Morocco, Tunisia) or
preexisting price spikes (e.g., Iran, Somalia, Sudan). The group statement
issued after the recent Arab League summit in Algiers reflected the gravity of
the situation, calling for collective action to counter food and energy crises.
Policy Recommendations
Russia is almost certain to use the BSGI’s November 19 renewal deadline to
increase pressure on the West, the UN, and Turkey, especially regarding the
separate agreement on fertilizer exports. Moscow found itself outmaneuvered when
it tried to leverage a temporary suspension in October, but that gambit should
be viewed as just the latest tactic in a larger game. Going forward, the United
States, the EU, and other partners should focus on raising the political cost
for Moscow if it withdraws from the BSGI again.
First, they should escalate their information warfare efforts by highlighting
the BSGI’s benefits—especially the fact that it disproportionately benefits
non-Western countries. Data should be retrieved and published on how much Turkey
and the EU (among other governments) reexport food staples to low- and
middle-income countries. Recalling that the BSGI is a market stabilization
initiative would also help outline its global benefits.
Second, the West should not assume that Russia will automatically agree to renew
the deal. The Kremlin is always eager to use multilateral agreements to improve
its negotiating position in other domains. To put itself in a position of
strength, the West should immediately begin bolstering alternative avenues for
grain deliveries, including the Danube Grain route. Although this alternative is
less efficient, it offers a viable Plan B if Russia tries to leverage another
BSGI suspension. Efforts should also continue to increase the volume of grain
transiting through ground corridors such as the EU solidarity lanes.
More broadly, the West should look for other ways to improve food security and
address the growing risk of global recession. The Russian invasion caught the
world unprepared, but almost a year later, it is clear that the war’s effects
will be global and long-lasting. Accordingly, plans must be made to address
these effects sooner rather than later.
*Anna Borshchevskaya is a senior fellow in The Washington Institute’s Diane and
Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle
East. Louis Dugit-Gros is a visiting fellow with the Institute and a diplomat
with the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs; the views expressed
herein are strictly personal. Sabina Henneberg is a Soref Fellow at the
Institute.
The Formation of Iraq’s New Government is a Major
Victory for Iran and Its Allies
Nawzad Shukri/Fikra Forum/The Washington Institute/November 08/2022
Although framed as a government of solidarity between Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish
factions, the Sudani government in Iraq gives Iran a significant arena in which
to wield its influence.
In the aftermath of the failure by the tripartite alliance—which included the
Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Masoud Barzani, the Sadr Movement led by
Muqtada al-Sadr, and the Sunni Sovereignty lead by Khamis al-Khanjar and
Mohammed al-Halbousi—to form a majoritarian national government over the last
year, sudden policy changes in September finally instigated a breakthrough in
Iraq’s deadlocked political scene.
More specifically, Barzani and Halbousi joined a new coalition, called the
“Running the State Coalition,” with the Iran-backed Shia Coordination Framework
following Sadr’s withdrawal from politics to finally form a new government. Soon
after, the new coalition gave confidence to Mohammed al-Halbousi as Iraq’s
Parliament Speaker and elected Abdul Latif Rashid as the country’s new president
on October 13. Rashid then named Mohammed Shia al-Sudani—a candidate nominated
by the Framework and with the particular support of Nouri al-Maliki—as prime
minister-designate, and the new cabinet of Sudani was approved by the Iraqi
parliament on October 27.
The New Coalition and a New Road Map
The agreements that led up to this new coalition between the Kurds, Sunnis, and
the Coordination Framework have not all been disclosed, however, some details
regarding stated coalition priorities have been released. In general, the
coalition set forward goals such as fighting corruption, instituting reforms,
rebalancing Iraq’s regional relations, amending or changing the electoral
commission system, and emphasizing consensus among Iraqi factions. These points
were again highlighted by Sudani during the presentation of his ministerial
program in parliament.
Regarding the participation of the Kurds in this coalition, the first six months
of the government will be crucial in ensuring Kurdish cooperation, especially
when it comes to the federal law on Oil and Gas based on the constitutional
understandings with the Kurdistan Region. Also important will be the 2022 Iraqi
budgetary issues, the Shingal Agreement signed between the Kurdistan Regional
Government and Kadhimi government in 2020 regarding the governance and security
of the Shingal region, and the implementation of Article 140 of the constitution
regarding Kirkuk and other disputed areas.
For their part, the participation of the Arab Sunnis in the coalition is
seemingly hinged on demands that include the withdrawal of Shia militias from
Sunni cities, the reconstruction of liberated provinces, changes in the
counter-terrorism laws, investigations into the fate of abducted individuals,
and a return of displaced peoples and refugees to their homes.
Of course, there is significant doubt that the Framework-led government will
actually follow through on these promises for the Sunnis and Kurds. In fact,
with a long track record of violating agreements, there is little faith in the
ability or willingness of the Coordination Framework to function as one, unified
entity with its “allies.”
Instead, it seems that the Coordination Framework made these promises simply as
a tool for getting what they want. Having been unable to secure a two-thirds
quorum in the past without the cooperation of Barzani and Halbousi, the
Framework realized—with the help and influence of Iran—that new alliances would
be necessary, even if superficial. When the Sadrists withdrew from politics in
late August, the Framework seized the opportunity to turn tripartite allies into
Framework allies for the purpose of a quorum only.
Despite the intentions and inconsistency of the Coordination Framework, the
Kurds and Sunnis were essentially left with no choice but to cooperate. In the
face of the Sadrists’ extreme unpredictability and a lack of consultation
between the Sadrists and their tripartite allies about developments and
political process in Iraq, Barzani and Halbousi saw the Coordination Framework
as their only chance for stability and meaningful contribution.
Moreover, Iran and its allies expertly wielded pressure campaigns against the
KDP and the Sunni Sovereignty parties to achieve agreement. While the United
States remained indifferent, Iranian entities in Iraq politically, economically,
and militarily pressured the Kurds and Sunnis to join with the Coordination
Framework and form a government. Although framed as benefiting the interests of
all, such an alliance only strengthened the position of Iran in Iraq.
What does the New Government Mean for Iraq?
Despite stating priorities, making agreements, and electing ministers, it is
unlikely that the new government will institute real reform in Iraq, and there
are still huge challenges that await Sudani and the parliament. Dealing with
Sadr and his movement will be at the top of these challenges. Although Sadr has
refused to participate in this government, he still publicly berates Sudani as
“Maliki’s man” and fears that Sudani will target the Sadrist Movement. Indeed,
on November 2, al-Sudani abolished all decisions that had been made by Kadhimi
during his caretaker government since October 2021. Some of these radical
changes to the security, political, and administrative sectors have directly
targeted Sadrist Movement figures.
Consequently, it is foolish to assume that Sadr won’t continue to be a major
player in the Iraqi political scene. Inevitably, the new Coordination Framework
government will likely provoke Sadr and his followers, and in turn, Sadr’s
anti-government demonstrations will likely start back up again. It remains to be
seen whether Sudani will pursue a policy of appeasement towards Sadr to prevent
this possibility early on, or if intra-Shia divisions will prevent him from
doing so.
Even beyond the Sadrist Movement, Sudani’s government faces the possibility of
an uprising at the hands of other actors, including the October Movement, which
was responsible for the public protests that toppled former Prime Minister Adil
Abdul-Mahdi’s government in 2019.
October Movement figures are still unhappy that their demands have not been met
by the Iraqi government, including demands for an end to the sectarian quota
system, the removal of the political elite from Iraqi politics, the
accountability of Iranian-backed militias under state authority, an end to
Iran’s blatant meddling in Iraqi politics, serious reforms targeting corruption
and providing better basic services, and increased employment for Iraqis. With
the formation of a government being led by Iran-backed allies, the October
Movement could accelerate public demonstrations or create new coalitions with
the Sadrist Movement to topple Sudani.
Losers and Winners in the New Government
Although a political breakthrough was long overdue in Iraq, the formation of a
new government by Sudani can only be regarded as a major victory for Iran. Since
the elections last year, Iran has directly engaged in the Iraqi political
process and has pressured its rivals in order to undermine democratic processes,
shifting the political equation in their favor despite the fact that Iran’s
allies were defeated in the last elections. As it stands, the new government is
a fresh start for Iran to continue strengthening its regional agenda in Iraq and
beyond.
On the losing side of this equation, of course, are the Iraqi people. The new
Framework-led government represents a setback for democratic processes and
reforms in Iraq, and it severely lacks legitimacy. Not only is the bloc that a
majority of Iraqis voted for—the Sadrist bloc—not represented in this
government, but the clear influence and interference of Iran in the new
government gives the Iraqi people even less confidence.
Another loser in the formation of the new government is the United States. A
Sudani-led government grants Iran the ability to wield significant influence
while disregarding the needs of the Iraqi people, and this speaks to the
increasing indifference of the United States toward its own allies and the
institution of democracy in Iraq. Indeed, the United States has remained silent
about Iranian meddling in Iraqi politics, and has largely pursued a policy of
disengagement in the Iraqi theater that has allowed Iran to expand its sphere of
influence.
*Nawzad Shukri holds a PhD in politics and international relations from
Leicester University. He currently works as an Assistant Professor at the
University of Salahaddin in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. Shukri is a
contributor to Fikra Forum.