English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 04/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Give therefore to the emperor the things that are the emperor’s, and to God the things that are God’s
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 22/15-22/:”The Pharisees went and plotted to entrap him in what he said.So they sent their disciples to him, along with the Herodians, saying, ‘Teacher, we know that you are sincere, and teach the way of God in accordance with truth, and show deference to no one; for you do not regard people with partiality. Tell us, then, what you think. Is it lawful to pay taxes to the emperor, or not?’ But Jesus, aware of their malice, said, ‘Why are you putting me to the test, you hypocrites? Show me the coin used for the tax.’ And they brought him a denarius. Then he said to them, ‘Whose head is this, and whose title?’They answered, ‘The emperor’s.’ Then he said to them, ‘Give therefore to the emperor the things that are the emperor’s, and to God the things that are God’s.’When they heard this, they were amazed; and they left him and went away.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 03-04/2021
US says it understands Saudi Arabia’s concerns after Lebanon rift, calls for dialogue
Blinken Urges Lebanon to Carry out Urgent Reforms, Hold Fair Elections
Lebanon says Saudi Arabia dictating impossible terms
Bahrain urges its citizens to leave Lebanon, Yemen recalls envoy
Lebanese FM Acknowledges Govt’s Inability to Confront Hezbollah
Bou Habib Meets Aoun on Arab Ties, Urges against 'Pouring Oil on Fire'
Bou Habib Says Saudi Daily Took His Remarks Out of Context
Reports: U.S., France, Germany Urge Miqati to Start Dialogue with KSA
Lebanon's Cabinet 'Won't Convene' before Resolving Row with KSA
Report: Govt. to Make 'Major Official Apology' to KSA, UAE
Row between KSA and Lebanon Hits Delivery Services
Kordahism, Not Kordahi/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 03/2021
How Hezbollah’s hold destroyed Lebanon’s relationship with Saudi Arabia/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
Why Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati never stood a chance/Najia Al Houssari and Tarek Ali Ahmad/The Arab News/November 03/2021
The unintended consequences/Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/November 03/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 03-04/2021
Syria Reports Israel Air Raid on Military Post Near Damascus
Iran nuclear talks with world powers to resume Nov. 29
Iran says stopped US navy seizing tanker in Sea of Oman
Iran seized Vietnamese oil tanker: US officials
Israel government’s fate hangs on key budget vote
Sudanese army in talks with Hamdok over return as premier
Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, UK Urge Restoration of Sudan Civilian-Led Rule
Sudan’s Hamdok Wants Coup Reversed as Condition for Dialogue
Palestinians Demand British Recognition of Their State As an Apology for 'Balfour Declaration’
Sadr Warns against Sectarian Strife in Iraq’s Diyala
Turkey Says Military Operation in N.Syria Will Take Place ‘at Right Time
Syria to End Subsidies for Richest Citizens
Russian, Turkish Officers Hold ‘Operational Meeting’ in North Syria
US Holds onto ‘Deconfliction Channel’ with Russia in Northeastern Syria
Egypt Govt to Begin Move to New Administrative Capital in December
Tunisia Says Tunnel Found near French Ambassador's Residence
Moroccan parliament seeks greater role to consolidate diplomatic gains
Family Rift Rocks Kurdish PUK Party in Iraq

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 03-04/2021
Biden Warns Erdogan in a ‘Positive’ Way/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 03/2021
Why Turkey is keen to project power in the Gulf of Guinea/Dr. Theodore Karasik/ Arab News//November 03/2021
Why OPEC+ should stick to its strategy, despite COP26/Frank Kane/Arab News//November 03/2021
Governments have a responsibility to tackle housing crisis/Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News//November 03/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 03-04/2021
US says it understands Saudi Arabia’s concerns after Lebanon rift, calls for dialogue
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/04 November ,2021
“The notion that the Houthis have been anything but a destabilizing force and a force that has inflicted additional hardship on the people of Yemen, that is not an idea that we recognize,” the US official said.
The US said Wednesday that it understood Saudi Arabia’s concerns after Lebanon’s information minister voiced support for the Iran-backed Houthis in the yearslong Yemen war. Nevertheless, Washington called on Riyadh and the Gulf to restore ties with Beirut, citing its unprecedented struggles. “Our position is that diplomatic channels should remain open if we are to seek to improve the humanitarian conditions of the Lebanese people,”State Department Spokesman Ned Price said during a briefing with reporters. Price said the US would continue to support Lebanon in the midst of its economic crisis. He refused to comment on whether Information Minister George Kordahi should step down after his pro-Houthi comments were aired last week. But Price criticized the Houthis for refusing to play a positive role in reaching a ceasefire in Yemen. “The notion that the Houthis have been anything but a destabilizing force and a force that has inflicted additional hardship on the people of Yemen, that is not an idea that we recognize,” the US official said. On Tuesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati as well as Saudi Arabia’s and the UAE’s foreign ministers. The row over critical comments made by Kordahi about the Arab Coalition’s military intervention in Yemen threw the country into a new crisis. Saudi Arabia gave Lebanon’s ambassador 48 hours to leave the country and recalled its envoy to Beirut last week after Kordahi’s comments were aired. Riyadh also ordered the immediate halt to all Lebanese imports. Bahrain, Kuwait followed suit by asking the top Lebanese diplomats in their countries to leave, while the UAE pulled its diplomats from Beirut.

Blinken Urges Lebanon to Carry out Urgent Reforms, Hold Fair Elections
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati held on Tuesday a number of meetings, on the sidelines of his participation in the COP26 Climate Change Summit in Glasgow, where he discussed with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson the latest developments in Lebanon. A statement by the US Department of State said that Blinken underlined “continuing US support for the Lebanese people as the country suffers the effects of a historic economic crisis.”The statement added: “[Blinken] encouraged the Prime Minister to implement reforms to rescue the country and restore international confidence. The Secretary also emphasized the importance of holding free and fair elections in the spring of 2022.”He “reiterated that the United States would continue to work with Lebanon for peace and prosperity in the region.”According to a statement from Mikati’s office, Blinken stressed “support for the government’s continued efforts to restore stability and achieve economic recovery and the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, leading to the holding of parliamentary elections.”The US official emphasized continued “support for the army and the educational, health and environmental sectors.” He also conveyed “the special importance and affection that US President Joe Biden attaches to Lebanon, its stability and recovery, in preparation for its revival.”Blinken described his meeting with the PM as “fruitful,” tweeting: “Productive meeting with Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati at COP26. We discussed the need to implement urgent reforms to address Lebanon’s economic crisis and to hold free and fair elections next year.”Mikati met separately on Monday with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, with whom he discussed the situation in South Lebanon and the existing cooperation between the army and UN peacekeeping forces (UNIFIL). Guterres promised to visit Lebanon before the end of this year.

Lebanon says Saudi Arabia dictating impossible terms
The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
BEIRUT--Lebanon’s foreign minister said Saudi Arabia was dictating impossible terms by asking the government to reduce the role of Iran-backed Hezbollah, adding Beirut’s row with Riyadh could be resolved if the kingdom agreed to a dialogue with the new Lebanese cabinet.
“If they just want Hezbollah’s head on a plate, we can’t give them that,” the minister, Abdallah Bou Habib, told Reuters in an interview on Tuesday. “Hezbollah is a component of politics in Lebanon. It has a regional armed dimension, yes, but this is beyond what we can resolve,” he said. Lebanon is facing its worst rift yet with Gulf Arab states, spurred by a minister’s critical comments about the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen that described the war there as futile.
Punitive measures
Saudi Arabia and some Gulf Arab allies have reacted angrily to the remarks made by the information minister in an interview last week, which he had filmed before taking up his cabinet position. Riyadh expelled Lebanon’s ambassador, banned all imports from Lebanon and recalled its envoy for consultations. Kuwait and Bahrain followed suit by expelling the top envoys in their own capitals, while the United Arab Emirates withdrew all its diplomats from Beirut. Saudi Arabia has said its actions were driven not just by George Kordahi’s comments but rather were rooted in its objection to the increasing dominance of the Hezbollah armed group over Lebanese politics. The row is part of a long-standing feud between Saudi Arabia and Iran that has played out in proxy conflicts across the region, from Yemen to Syria to Iraq. Gulf states are traditional aid donors to Lebanon but for several years have been increasingly dismayed by Hezbollah’s expanding power and have so far been loath to help rescue Lebanon from a devastating economic crisis.
A call for dialogue
On Tuesday, Bou Habib said he believed mutual dialogue between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia was the only way to solve the dispute. But he added that there had been no meetings on any level between both parties since Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s cabinet was formed on September 10. “There has been no dialogue (with Saudi Arabia) even before the problem with minister Kordahi … the Saudi ambassador here never communicated with us,” Bou Habib said. “He (the Saudi ambassador) was here and was communicating with a lot of Lebanese politicians, but he wasn’t communicating with us,” he said. “We need to know what they want … we prefer dialogue to dictates.”Kordahi has refused to resign over the incident, but Bou Habib said it was unclear whether his resignation would solve the rift with Saudi at this point, although it could be enough for others in the Gulf.
Qatari mediation
The only offer on the table towards a resolution so far has come from Qatar, whose Emir met Mikati in Glasgow on the sidelines of the COP26 meeting on Monday, Bou Habib said.“There is the possibility of a Qatari mediation,” Bou Habib said, but added that it was in the initial stages and that the Qataris had not spoken with the Saudis yet over the matter. “There is no other initiative.”Qatar has denounced the Kordahi comments but has not announced any diplomatic initiative over the incident. Bou Habib said any Qatari effort to mediate could be helped by the resolution earlier this year of a separate row pitting Qatar against Saudi Arabia and three other Arab states which had resulted in an improved rapport between Doha and Riyadh. Mikati’s government, formed after over a year of political deadlock that has added to Lebanon’s financial decline, is trying to revive talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to unlock much-needed foreign funds. But aside from political paralysis over an internal row to do with the Beirut port blast investigation, this latest diplomatic crisis has hampered the cabinet, Bou Habib said. “Of course we have been affected, we have been affected a great deal, not a little,” he said.

Bahrain urges its citizens to leave Lebanon, Yemen recalls envoy
The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
MANAMA--Bahrain on Tuesday urged its citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately, after the UAE made a similar call in an escalating row over a minister’s Yemen war remarks. Also on Tuesday, Yemen’s internationally-recognised government said it had summoned its ambassador from Lebanon to address statements by Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi, according to the official Saba news agency. Kordahi triggered the dispute with an interview recorded in August and aired last week. In it, he said that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militias were “defending themselves … against an external aggression.”
The dispute, now deepening, could further isolate Lebanon and increase pressure on a newly-formed cabinet, led by Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Bahrain’s foreign ministry “urged all citizens in Lebanon to leave immediately, following the tense situation there, which calls for extra caution,” it said in a statement carried by the official Bahrain News Agency. On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates urged its citizens to get out of Lebanon. A Saudi-led military coalition which has included the UAE and Bahrain intervened to prop up the Yemeni government in 2015, after Houthi militias seized the capital Sana’a in 2014, with Iranian support. Saudi Arabia on Friday gave Lebanon’s ambassador 48 hours to leave the country, recalled its envoy from Beirut and suspended all imports from Lebanon. Bahrain and Kuwait quickly followed with similar measures and the UAE on Saturday recalled its diplomats from Beirut in “solidarity” with Riyadh. The Saudi foreign ministry said its moves came after the “insulting” remarks on the Yemen war, but were also because of the influence of Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shia Muslim movement Hezbollah. Riyadh has said dealing with Beirut was “pointless” due to Hezbollah’s dominance. Lebanon on Monday called for talks with Saudi Arabia to ease the dispute which is another blow to a country in financial and political turmoil and struggling to secure aid, including from wealthy Arab countries.

Lebanese FM Acknowledges Govt’s Inability to Confront Hezbollah
Beirut - Caroline Akoum/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib acknowledged that the government is incapable of confronting Hezbollah, describing the Iran-backed party as a “regional problem.”Lebanon’s ties with the Gulf have been strained in wake of Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi’s offensive comments against Saudi Arabia and the war in Yemen. The Kingdom has since recalled its ambassador in Beirut, expelled the Lebanese ambassador in Riyadh and banned all imports from Lebanon. Bahrain and Kuwait have since followed suit in recalling their envoys. In an attempt to justify why the government has failed to take steps to resolve the crisis, Bou Habib said: “Saudi Arabia is demanding that the government restrict the role of Hezbollah.”“We are confronted with a big problem because if they just want Hezbollah's head on a plate, we can't give them that,” he told Reuters.
“Hezbollah is a component of politics in Lebanon. It has a regional armed dimension, yes, but this is beyond what we can resolve,” he added. “We all want one army and one country, but we have a reality to contend with,” he continued. Moreover, Bou Habib said the government’s resignation was “out of the question because it did not commit any mistake.”Kordahi had made his statements over the summer before he assumed office. So far, only Qatar has offered to mediate to resolve the crisis, revealed Bou Habib. Warnings have mounted in Lebanon over the impact Saudi Arabia and the Gulf’s measures will have against the country. More and more officials are demanding that wrong policies be amended and that Hezbollah and its control over the state be confronted, reflecting a realization that the problem this time is a product of the accumulation of a series of issues that cannot be resolved through regular means. Now is the time to take measures that would restrict the party’s reach in Lebanon and beyond its borders. Former minister Ashraf Rifi said the current crisis with the Gulf is a result of “the occupation of Iran, the enemy of Arabs.”“Kordahi’s remarks were the final straw amid Hezbollah’s harm towards the Gulf and deliberate offense to it, the last of which was the smuggling of capatagon narcotic pills,” he added. “It is only normal for any state that enjoys the bare minimum of sovereignty to take stances to protect itself and its people,” he continued. “In order to mend the situation, Lebanon must condemn Hezbollah’s terrorism, but the current government cannot do so,” Rifi remarked. He noted that Kordahi’s resignation could usher in some hope, but it will not resolve the problem. “The solution lies in the ouster of the entire political authority, which has become, starting from the presidency, a puppet in Hezbollah’s hands,” he stated. Former minister Ahmed Fatfat echoed Rifi’s remarks, adding that Kordahi’s comments were not made in a moment of folly, as some may believe. “They were part of a comprehensive project led by Hezbollah with the aim of cutting Lebanon off from its Arab surroundings and placing it under Iranian occupation,” he told Asharq Al-Awsat. Kordahi’s resignation is not enough to end the crisis, he opined. Rather, the entire government must step down, as should the president. A clear stance must be taken against Hezbollah and its weapons and the political cover it has been offered should be removed so that it can shoulder the consequences of its actions, he stressed.

Bou Habib Meets Aoun on Arab Ties, Urges against 'Pouring Oil on Fire'
Associated Press/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib met Wednesday with President Michel Aoun in Baabda, hours after Saudi newspaper Okaz published controversial statements attributed to the minister about the already tense relation with Saudi Arabia.
“What happened over the past days must stop at the extent of putting the common Arab interest first and refraining from pouring oil on fire, especially that Lebanon has always been a supporter of all brotherly Arab countries and will not be a pathway for harming any state,” Bou Habib said in a statement issued after the talks. “Lebanon, which has always worked to achieve solidarity among the Arab states and paid dearly for this choice over the past years, is today looking forward for its brothers in the Arab countries and the Gulf states to stand by it in the current difficult circumstances that it is going through,” the minister added. He also noted that President Aoun “has reiterated that Lebanon’s stance is unified over the need for establishing the best relations between Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states and Arab nations.”“These relations should not be affected by any stances issues by a side or parties that do not reflect the Lebanese state’s viewpoint,” Bou Habib quoted Aoun as saying.
Lebanon’s spat with KSA and other Gulf nations unfolded over statements by Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi aired last week about the war in Yemen, which Lebanese officials have said do not represent official government views. Riyadh angrily recalled its ambassador and asked the Lebanese envoy to leave. It also banned Lebanese imports, depriving the small country of millions of dollars while it is deep in an economic crisis. Gulf countries have joined Saudi Arabia in pulling out their diplomats, sharpening the diplomatic slap.
Despite the calls for mediation and dialogue, there is no sign of the crisis letting up. Instead, Bou Habib’s apparently off-the-cuff remarks threaten to further aggravate the crisis. In the leaks published by the Saudi newspaper, the minister reportedly said that drug smuggling out of Lebanon would not have happened if there was no “market” in Saudi Arabia. The comments, apparently made at the outset of the crisis, were interpreted by Saudi media as an endorsement of the smuggling, which had been another reason for the tension with Lebanon. Since the crisis, Bou Habib in comments to the press had said Riyadh was being too harsh on Lebanon. He did not deny the leaked comments Wednesday in a statement, but said he had wished the Saudi paper would have helped in resolving the crisis "instead of publishing partial and wrong narratives" that only complicate matters.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese minister at the center of the crisis, George Kordahi, has refused to apologize or step down, saying his remarks about the Yemen war, which were recorded before he took the post in September, were not meant to offend. At the heart of the crisis is Saudi Arabia's frustration with the growing role of Iran-backed Hizbullah in Lebanon. Riyadh is locked into a regional power rivalry with Tehran, which it accuses of backing the Houthi rebels in Yemen along its borders. Over the years, Saudi Arabia, once a close ally, has lost its influence and clout in Lebanon.

Bou Habib Says Saudi Daily Took His Remarks Out of Context
Naharnet/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has described as inaccurate remarks attributed to him by Saudi newspaper Okaz, amid concerns that the leaks could worsen the current diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia. Okaz meanwhile said it obtained Bou Habib’s remarks through its “private sources” and that the statements were made by Bou Habib during a meeting with a number of journalists. “He tried to back down from them by demanding that they be concealed and not published, after his aides advised him to immediately retract them in order not to stir further anger among Lebanese citizens who are infuriated by his government, its policies and the confusion of its ministers,” the daily said. “The office of the Lebanese foreign minister has tried to prevent the spread of the statements, pleading strongly with the journalists who attended the session with the tense minister so that they don’t publish the statements,” Okaz added.
In the remarks published by the daily, Bou Habib notes that “even when” Lebanon sacked ex-foreign minister Charbel Wehbe, “Saudi Arabia did not appreciate” the move. “If we cannot disagree, I don’t want such brotherhood. Today if they sack Kordahi what will we get from the kingdom? Nothing! They will demand more things,” the minister added, according to Okaz. Moreover, he reportedly alleged that Saudi Arabia’s “drugs market is the main motive behind the smuggling” of narcotics from Lebanon, “not drug dealers in Beirut and its suburbs.”Downplaying the Gulf’s financial support for Lebanon, Bou Habib allegedly said that “the important aid used to come from the European Union.”“As for the Saudi assistance, it wasn’t for the state. It was rather distributed in the elections and granted as aid to the High Relief Council after the 2006 (war). We don’t know how it was spent, but the state received nothing from it,” the minister added. Apparently referring to Hizbullah’s presence in Lebanon, Bou Habib said: “The problem with Saudi Arabia is that if your brother is sick, you can’t tell him ‘talk to me when you are healed.’ I cannot heal and I cannot treat the disease.”In a statement, the minister noted that the meeting with the journalists had been scheduled prior to the latest crisis that was sparked by Information Minister George Kordahi’s remarks. “The aim of this interview was to seek the opening of the doors of dialogue and the elimination of flaws, in order to repair the relation with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” Bou Habib added. “I wish the dear newspaper helped us in seeking a solution for this crisis instead of publishing narratives that are taken out context, inaccurate and would contribute to pouring oil on fire,” the minister went on to say, urging all media outlets to “be a means for mending rifts” and for “rapprochement between us and the Arab brothers.”

Reports: U.S., France, Germany Urge Miqati to Start Dialogue with KSA
Naharnet/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
The U.S., France and Germany urged Prime Minister Najib Miqati in Glasgow not to resign and to find a way to restart dialogue with Saudi Arabia, al-Akhbar newspaper said Wednesday. The three countries’ position on the Lebanon-Gulf diplomatic crisis was conveyed to Miqati during meetings he held with world leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. climate summit in Glasgow. They proposed the “resignation or sacking” of Information Minister George Kordahi, al-Akhbar said. The U.S. and France informed Miqati that they can’t convince Saudi Arabia to change its position, the newspaper said, adding that Washington is not ready to hold high-level talks with Riyadh. The newspaper added that Miqati has contacted President Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi and received different feedbacks from the three leaders. One opinion was to resume Cabinet sessions to discuss Kordahi’s issue, while the other was that KSA doesn’t really want Kordahi’s resignation but is rather making crippling demands.

Lebanon's Cabinet 'Won't Convene' before Resolving Row with KSA
Naharnet/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Contacts and consultations among the Lebanese parties and with some Arab and foreign capitals are expected to intensify today with the return of Prime Minister Najib Miqati from the climate summit in Glasgow, media reports said. The contacts aim to find a solution for the diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia and Cabinet will not convene before such an exit is found, al-Joumhouria newspaper quoted sources as saying. “The premier and some concerned parties are insisting on Information Minister George Kordahi’s resignation to avoid an aggravation of the crisis with KSA in particular and most Gulf countries in general, whereas other parties are insisting that the man should not resign because they believe that he did not err as a minister and that his stance on Yemen’s war had been taken prior to his appointment as a minister,” the sources added.

Report: Govt. to Make 'Major Official Apology' to KSA, UAE
Naharnet /Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
There will be a new attempt to convene a Cabinet session once Prime Minister Najib Miqati returns from Scotland, in which a “major official apology” will be made to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, informed political sources said. In remarks to Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper published Wednesday, the sources said the diplomatic crisis sparked by Information Minister George Kordahi’s remarks has “surpassed Kordahi to affect the entire Lebanese situation.”“President Michel Aoun and Speaker Nabih Berri have agreed to this exit, but the approval of Hizbullah and Marada chief Suleiman Franjieh remains pending,” the sources added. The sources also said that “should this attempt also fail, Miqati will be asked to resign by the ex-PMs who nominated him for the premiership.

Row between KSA and Lebanon Hits Delivery Services
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Two major delivery companies have canceled or drastically scaled back their services between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon, employees said on Wednesday, following a major diplomatic row between the two countries. DHL has stopped inbound and outbound shipments between the two countries, a company employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP. An email seen by AFP told staff the decision was made "with immediate effect" on Tuesday. Meanwhile, an employee at FedEx's call center in Saudi Arabia said all shipments between the two countries apart from documents had been stopped, calling it "a new order from the company." On Friday, Saudi Arabia gave Lebanon's ambassador 48 hours to leave, recalled its envoy from Beirut and suspended all imports from Lebanon. Bahrain and Kuwait quickly followed with similar measures, and the United Arab Emirates on Saturday recalled its diplomats from Beirut in "solidarity" with Riyadh. Saudi authorities said the measures were taken after "insulting" remarks made by Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi and due to the influence of Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbullah. In an interview recorded in August and aired last week, Kordahi said Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen were "defending themselves... against an external aggression" by a Saudi-led military coalition. A Saudi-led military coalition that has included the UAE and Bahrain intervened to prop up the Yemeni government in 2015 after Huthis seized the capital Sanaa in 2014. Kordahi's comments sparked angry rebukes from Saudi Arabia and its allies, further worsening diplomatic ties that have weakened significantly in recent years over the growing influence in Lebanon of Hizbullah, which is viewed by the kingdom as a "terrorist" group. On Sunday, Saudi Arabia said dealing with Beirut was "pointless" due to Hizbullah's "dominance."The row is a fresh blow to Lebanon, a country in financial and political turmoil where a fragile government is struggling to secure international aid, particularly from wealthy Arab powers.

Kordahism, Not Kordahi
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 03/2021
Within axis of resistance circles in Lebanon, an argument has been circulating: to defend Information Minister Kordahi is to defend freedom of speech, while to attack him is to attack freedom of speech.
That is not true. Freedom of opinion and speech is the right of Kordahi and anyone else, whomever they may be and whatever their opinion is. However, those with opinions like that of Kordahi should not be handed ministerial positions in countries like Lebanon. That is true for every country in the world, whether it is democratic or not: no country appoints someone known for an opinion that undermines their country’s supreme national interests. This principle applies particularly strongly given today’s circumstances, with international and regional polarization at its height, rendering the appointment of ministers with opinions like those of Kordahi akin to taking sides in a war. Indeed, appointing Kordahi minister is a valid decision under one circumstance, if his state was hostile, or perhaps at war, with the state the minister in question hates. Once we factor in what former minister Charbel Wehbe had said - while he (unlike Kordahi) was a minister - it becomes fair to raise the question: is Lebanon hostile, even at war, with the Gulf states?
By extension, we can add another question based on the successive Western sanctions imposed on prominent Lebanese figures, including the President of the Republic’s son-in-law Gebran Bassil: have we decided we are on unfriendly terms, and perhaps war, with the United States and Western European countries? Kordahi, who is no freedom of speech advocate, by the way, is a trivial detail. The reasons for why he should not be appointed are not limited to the reason in question. What matters, at the end of the day, is Kordahism. What is Kordahism? It is the latest version of the policy of ensuring Christian cover for the strategy of undermining Lebanon’s interests and its relations. Bassilism is one version. Lahoudism is another. Hobiekism is a version. Syrian Nationalism is a version. Frangiesm is a version… With Kordahi, this vulgarity peaks.
Hezbollah stands behind that destructive project today; as for those who grant it Christian cover, they make up for their limited support within their sect by competing to present those services. However, their going so far stems from the extent of the difficulty of the task at hand. Turning Kordahi into a hero speaks to this eloquently.
Once, after a long period of “Christian marginalization,” the task seemed simple because insanity seemed to be in demand. A deep sense of frustration called for it. Thus, Aounism managed to flip traditional Christian positions on Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria and Iran, as well as Arabs and the West on their head. It left two-thirds of the country’s Christians embracing a program that goes against what Lebanon stands for and the function it traditionally fulfilled.
Now, things are different: the increasingly popular conviction that Hezbollah’s weapons are linked to the ongoing economic collapse, then the explosion at the Port of Beirut, and most recently, the bloody events in Tayyouneh and Ain al-Rummaneh… All of that is starting to put things back in order. The dramatic decline in support for the Aounists, on the eve of a likely general election, confirms this. The expansion of Hezbollah’s influence and the escalation of its demands, which have become extremely coarse, are amplifying their helplessness and mortification. The dissolution of Aoun’s “strong reign” and its evident weakness are dispelling all illusions.
We are thus witnessing, today, Aounism’s transformation from its moment of Bashirst popularity to that of Lahoudist popularity. However, what are the pillars of this approach, the latest wretched manifestation of which is Kordahism?
- Affirming that Lebanon is a country of resistance and that its resistance movement, Hezbollah, is that country’s real decision-maker and army. Turning positions of power into facades: the presidency is left to some Kordahist and the army and other security forces are only nominally responsible for security. If furthering the resistance’s interests requires applying pressure on the judiciary, then so be it. - Good relations with Arab countries can be summed up in good ties with Syria and, by extension, Iran! Stand with Assad against Saudi Arabia, the rest of the Gulf, Egypt, Morocco, and the others… and you are a good Arab. Stand with the others, and you are an isolationist hostile to Arabs.
- Relations with the outside world can bypass the United States and Western Europe. Russia is a strong possibility. China is another. The axis’ conventional wisdom is that the world’s paths lead to Israel, so it is best to avoid them and bask in our isolation.
- A cultural supplement could be added to those principles: political success and failure are not evaluated according to quantifiable achievements (economy, health, education…). They are measured according to how much “pride” they imbue, for “life is but a stand for dignity,” as the morbid rhetorical phrase popular these days goes. Glorifying poverty, illness, war and illiteracy is part of this “dignity.”This nonsense requires heroes and symbols, and Mr. Kordahi could thus be nominated to become more than a minister. Kordahism has come to symbolize a new Lebanon with a military helmet atop its head and its bare feet stuck in thorns.

How Hezbollah’s hold destroyed Lebanon’s relationship with Saudi Arabia
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
Saudi Arabia may have dealt Lebanon’s rulers, Hezbollah and the oligarchs, a fatal economic blow by scaling down its diplomatic ties and closing off Saudi markets to Lebanese exports. While it is tempting to think of the Saudi move as a welcome wake-up call for the Lebanese, judging by past behavior, the oligarchs are unlikely to change course and will most likely persist in their tried-and-failed policies that have only bred economic collapse and misery.
Riyadh’s escalation might seem to have been the result of comments made by Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi in which he blamed Gulf countries for the war in Yemen, saying that the Houthis, whose occupation of Sana’a started the war, were only defending themselves against Saudi aggression.
Before serving in the cabinet, Kordahi was best known for hosting televised game shows on Saudi networks. His knowledge of politics is minimal and his awareness of policy-making is even less.
Kordahi’s comments alone, which were made several months ago before he became a minister, could not have flipped Saudi Arabia. They proved to be, however, the last nail in the coffin of a once-thriving relationship that has been deteriorating over the past few years, mainly due to Hezbollah’s expanding influence in Lebanon and its complete domination of its policies.
The Saudi move cost the Lebanese exports their fourth biggest market, more than a quarter of billion dollars a year. Lebanon will also lose Riyadh’s foreign direct investments, which in 2015 reached near $1 billion. Moreover, by prohibiting its nationals from visiting Lebanon, perhaps for fear of harm or harassment by Hezbollah, Riyadh will deprive Beirut of the desperately needed stream of foreign currency that Saudi tourists usually carry with them.
Stopping Lebanese imports into Saudi Arabia has been long in the making after Saudi authorities intercepted shipments of narcotics from Lebanon, usually hidden in produce. The drug trade is one of Hezbollah’s top revenue makers. Saudi Arabia demanded that the Lebanese state enforce better controls on its border crossings to make sure that exports are free of illicit material. In Lebanon, however, state authority proved too weak to intercept any Hezbollah shipments moving in or out of the country. Given such failure, Riyadh decided to stop its imports from Lebanon.
Riyadh, however, proved to be considerate enough by differentiating between Beirut’s rulers and the Lebanese who live and work in Saudi Arabia. Estimates have it that 300,000 Lebanese live in the kingdom, making them the largest expat community. Remittances from these expats help keep hundreds of thousands of people in Lebanon from falling into poverty.
The Saudi government has tolerated Lebanon’s ungrateful and belligerent policies toward the kingdom for a longtime.
When Lebanese diplomacy broke with Arab consensus at the Arab League by abstaining on a resolution that denounced the Iran regime for burning down the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the consulate in Mashhad in 2016, Riyadh still gave Lebanon the benefit of the doubt.
When, in 2018, France led a donor’s conference to lift up a diving Lebanese economy, Saudi Arabia stood out as the largest single donor when it pledged $1 billion out of a total of $11 billion. America threw in a billion of its own and the rest of the world raised the balance. At the time, despite its reservations over Hezbollah’s antagonism toward the kingdom and the complicity of the Lebanese state with the pro-Iran militia, Riyadh still looked the other way and extended Lebanon a lifeline that was designed to help the country reform and reboot its economy. But the Lebanese state proved too weak to implement any of the reforms required before Beirut could receive any aid money. The country’s economy plunged deeper into recession and now suffers runaway inflation and increasing poverty.
Since the 1950s, Saudi Arabia has been one of the biggest supporters and sponsors of Lebanon and its stability. In 1989, Saudi Arabia hosted and engineered the Taif Agreement that led to the end of the 15-year civil war. After the conflict, as after every round of war with Israel, Saudi Arabia was always the first to offer Lebanon donations for reconstruction and to deposit foreign currency at the Lebanese central bank to keep the economy and more importantly the national currency, afloat.
For more than a decade now, many Lebanese have taken Saudi Arabia for granted, reciprocating support with insults, contraband and taking the side of Riyadh’s enemies, first and foremost Iran, which invests nothing in the Lebanese economy.
Lebanese rulers are known for pursuing personal interests at the expense of national ones. As long as Hezbollah decides who rules Lebanon, the Lebanese government will go with Iran against their national interests, which are better served by sticking with Saudi Arabia instead. Too bad the Lebanese do not see this, or see it but do nothing about it.
Copyright: Syndication Bureau

Why Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati never stood a chance
Najia Al Houssari and Tarek Ali Ahmad/The Arab News/November 03/2021
LONDON/BEIRUT: When Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati formed a government in September, ending a 13-month-long political stalemate, a collective sigh of relief was heard across the land. But the writing was already on the wall.
It did not take long for the moment of truth to arrive. But it was not the economic meltdown, or the electricity crisis, or the Beirut blast inquiry deadlock or the unfolding humanitarian disaster in the country that laid bare the Mikati government’s impotence. It was something entirely different.A TV star-turned-information minister was found to harbor outrageous views on an issue only peripherally related to Lebanon’s problems, but which had the potential to precipitate a serious diplomatic crisis for the country. The people of Lebanon know only too well that the government merry-go-round hides the reality of Hezbollah’s role as the puppet master.
In an interview that came to light recently, George Kordahi claimed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen was defending itself and that the war in Yemen should stop.
Although the interview was recorded before he assumed his cabinet post, Kordahi’s views came as a rude shock to Lebanon’s Gulf Arab friends, who have been on the receiving end of two kinds of lethal exports originating in Lebanon.
For the past six years, there have been continual attempts to smuggle weapons from Lebanon to the Houthis, and narcotic pills, mainly Captagon, from Lebanon to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
As Waleed Bukhari, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Lebanon, said in a tweet earlier this year: “The quantity of drugs and psychotropics smuggled from Lebanon is enough to drown not only Saudi Arabia but also the entire Arab world.”Against this backdrop, Lebanese leaders are naturally facing pressure to remove Kordahi from his post as a first step toward mending relations with the Gulf countries.
Lebanese officials also have been urging their American and French counterparts to mediate in the dispute sparked by Kordahi’s comments. The Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that Lebanon’s “great concern (is) to have the best relations with its Gulf and Arab brothers.”
Many Lebanese people think any other leader would have sent Kordahi packing, and accuse Mikati of failing to show strong leadership given that the minister’s views contradict Lebanon’s official position on the Yemen conflict. (AFP)
But all indications are that the situation will get worse before it gets better.Kordahi has said that he does not intend to quit his post. In a televised speech on Sunday he stated bluntly: “Resigning from the government is not an option.”
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain have recalled their ambassadors from Beirut and ordered their respective Lebanese ambassadors to leave. The UAE has also banned its citizens from traveling to Lebanon.
Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi foreign minister, has made it clear that Kordahi’s statements are but a symptom of the problem affecting Lebanon: The influence of Hezbollah, which has been the de-facto ruler of Lebanon for a very long time.
Seasoned observers of Lebanese politics view Kordahi as an irrelevance at best. They point out that he has a track record of reading someone else’s script: First from a teleprompter as the host of the Arabic version of the quiz show “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?;” now, from scripts handed to him by Hezbollah, as described by Arab News Editor in Chief Faisal J. Abbas in a recent column.
What has come as a rude awakening for Lebanon’s friends and well-wishers is not so much Kordahi’s ill-informed views about the war in Yemen, as the feeble response to them from Mikati’s government.
“Compared with the average Lebanese prime minister, Mikati is less confrontational and more consensus-driven,” Chris Abi-Nassif, the Lebanon program director at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News. “Last week’s diplomatic escalation caught him by surprise, especially given that he was banking on his relatively good ties with the Gulf to start reversing Lebanon’s downward trajectory.
“The escalation, however, shows that he clearly has very little maneuvering space and political capital today to stand up against Hezbollah or appease (let alone engage) the Gulf states, which explains the indecision in Beirut over the past few days.”
Kordahi has said that he does not intend to quit his post. (AFP)
Mikati, who is currently in Glasgow, Scotland, for COP26, the UN Climate Change Conference, was due to hold “several international and Arab meetings on Monday and Tuesday to discuss the current crisis between Lebanon and Gulf countries” on the sidelines of the event.
Precisely what conciliatory steps he is contemplating are far from clear, even though Fawzi Kabbara, Lebanon’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said upon his return to Beirut that “restoring Lebanese-Saudi ties would be possible if Lebanon agrees to the conditions.”
Many Lebanese people think any other leader would have sent Kordahi packing, and accuse Mikati of failing to show strong leadership given that the minister’s views contradict Lebanon’s official position on the Yemen conflict.
They add that it is obvious from the controversy that Kordahi’s protectors are Hezbollah and its ally, the Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh, who have pointedly praised him and are ensuring that he remains in his job.
“Whether it’s Najib Mikati or anybody that comes to the premiership, the individual is not going to be able to turn the ship around,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News.
If Lebanon has any hope of healing the rift with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, he said, the best course would be promising not to get involved in Yemen, taking action on illicit smuggling, and reining in the rhetoric.
“Its pledge not to be involved in foreign wars, including Yemen, and support for the Houthis would be a good place to start,” Maksad said.
George Kordahi claimed that the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen was defending itself and that the war in Yemen should stop. (AFP)
“Serious, structured efforts to contain and stop the flow of drugs to the Gulf via land and other means of transport would be a gesture that would go down well, and begin to alleviate serious Saudi concerns.
“And then trying to carefully calibrate public pronouncements directed against the Kingdom and its interests from Lebanese officials would be a third, but it would be a distant third.
“I don’t think that the problem begins, and certainly does not end, with folks that make these statements. The statement is a symptom of the illness, not the illness itself. But again, I think the prospects of any of those are limited.”
Hezbollah has not officially been accused of being behind “the flow of drugs to the Gulf” but most fingers point in its direction. According to a report by The Euro-Gulf Information Center: “The sale of drugs represents an important source of revenue for Hezbollah, made more important due to US sanctions on key party members and its main financial sponsor, Iran. The collapse of the Lebanese state has also pushed Hezbollah deeper into the illicit drug trade — there is less to steal from the national economy.”
The accusations are hardly surprising given that Lebanon has long been under Hezbollah’s thumb. The people know only too well that the government merry-go-round hides the reality of Hezbollah’s role as the puppet master. The prime minister enjoys the visible trappings of power but it is ultimately Hezbollah which calls the shots.
Hezbollah has not officially been accused of being behind the surge in drug-smuggling operations but most fingers point in its direction. (SPA)
“Mikati is not the perfect candidate for any heavy lifting in Beirut, neither when it comes to the required reforms, nor when it comes to the major political crises Lebanon is facing,” Bachar Halabi, a Lebanese political analyst, told Arab News.
“At best, Mikati is a compromise candidate who fills a gap when (former Prime Minister Saad) Hariri is out of power. He does not enjoy the wide popularity or the guts for confrontations. Hence, he is a ‘filler’ in a way. And with all those dossiers blowing up in his face, Mikati is clueless and helpless as well.”
Halabi added: “Today, Hezbollah controls the country. It controls the executive, it controls the legislature, it controls the presidency and it holds a sway over the judiciary and the media.
“With Lebanon falling almost entirely under Iran’s influence, as in the country becoming a satellite state for the regime in Tehran and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the particularity of Lebanon and what it represented for the Gulf countries has diminished, whether as a geopolitical asset, banking sector, the health sector or a space with plenty of margin for the press.”

The unintended consequences
Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/November 03/2021
As several Gulf countries break off relations with Lebanon, analysts say that if the diplomatic crisis continues this will only serve to hurt the country and empower Hezbollah. Despite the seeming randomness in the unproportionate response to an old interview and the speed in which other Gulf nations followed in Saudi Arabia's footsteps, analysts say that this was clearly a coordinated, pre-planned effort that was only looking for a trigger to justify it.  “I don’t think I would call it a crisis.”Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble in an interview on the side of the COP26 in Glasgow on Saturday that dealing with Lebanon’s government was pointless.“I think we have come to the conclusion that dealing with Lebanon and its current government is not productive and not helpful with Hezbollah’s continuing dominance of the political scene, and with what we perceive as a continuing reluctance by this government and Lebanese political leaders in general to enact the necessary reforms, the necessary actions to push Lebanon in the direction of real change,” he explained. The interview came hours after Saudi Arabia announced that Lebanon’s ambassador in Riyadh had just 48 hours to leave the country and that they were going to recall their ambassador from Beirut over an interview that Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi gave in August, one month before he was chosen to be part of Najib Mikati’s government, where he condemned Saudi “aggression” in the war in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia’s allies in the Gulf, Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, were soon to follow suit. Despite the seeming randomness in the unproportionate response to an old interview and the speed in which other Gulf nations followed in Saudi Arabia’s footsteps, analysts say that this was clearly a coordinated, pre-planned effort that was only looking for a trigger to justify it. “This wasn’t something unplanned,” Michael Young, a senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, told NOW. “I think that the Saudis were waiting for an opportunity to raise the heat on Lebanon. And they saw a golden opportunity with the statement by Kordahi.”
The last straw
The break of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon is the result of an accumulation of issues between the two countries, one of which also reached a breaking point earlier this year. Over the last six years, Saudi Arabia had uncovered over 600 million Captagon pills hidden in fruits and vegetables that were being imported from Lebanon. This ultimately led to the Saudis banning the import of Lebanese produce in April, dealing a blow to the Lebanese economy as these fruit and vegetable exports brought in around $24m annually. On another level, the expansion of Iran throughout the region, and its strengthening of Hezbollah, its proxy group in Lebanon, has also irked the Saudis for years. Iran and Hezbollah have been steadily expanding their role and grip on power in Lebanon despite the best efforts of Saudi Arabia, which has invested billions of dollars in the Mediterranean country. Riyadh has also planned a 3 billion dollar program to equip the Lebanese state army, as well as supporting political allies such as Saad Hariri’s Future Movement. In 2016, Michel Aoun ascended to the presidency through the help of Hezbollah. Even though it brought Lebanon out of a political crisis, this came as much to the chagrin of the Saudis as Aoun’s party is a staunch ally of Hezbollah.
Still, Saudi Arabia continued pumping money into Lebanon in the hopes of countering Hezbollah and, by extension, Iran.
Despite these efforts, Hezbollah has only grown in strength with analysts saying that this was a major factor in the Saudi’s decision to break off diplomatic ties with Lebanon. This was a response by the Saudis as a way of saying ‘Okay, you want to raise the heat in Marib? Well, we’re going to raise the heat in Lebanon which we consider basically an Iranian proxy. “The Saudi influence has certainly decreased over the last years starting even before 2016 but, of course, that alliance back then was forged to include Hezbollah [in the government] also led to the capture of Hariri [by the Saudis], led to the increasing frustration of the Saudis,” Kristof Kleemann, director of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom’s Beirut office, told NOW.
“There is a general feeling in Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states that Lebanon is shifting too much towards the East and towards Iran and, now, they want to send a strong message that they will not accept such a strong influence of Hezbollah in Lebanon especially under the current government.”Young also believes that the Saudi-Iranian cold war could be another factor in their decision-making. Currently, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels are advancing on the Yemeni city of Marib, putting more pressure on the Saudis and Emiratis who are supporting the current government. “This is in the context of an ongoing regional tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states,” Young explained. “There is an Iranian-Saudi dialogue taking place, but, at the same time, what you had is this offensive in Marib, in Yemen, which showed, in a way, that this dialogue remains quite fragile and that the Iranian logic is not one of dialogue but one of really trying to impose its will on the Saudis. This was a response by the Saudis as a way of saying ‘Okay, you want to raise the heat in Marib? Well, we’re going to raise the heat in Lebanon which we consider basically an Iranian proxy.'”For Young, this is part of the Saudis and Iranians continued pressure on one another while the two sides fight a proxy war for regional influence. In addition to this, Hezbollah is also under increased pressure at home with dissatisfaction amongst the Christian population rising, especially following the October 14 shootout in Tayyouneh. The armed group has also faced backlash over its steep opposition to Judge Tarek Bitar, the lead investigator of the August 4 Beirut port explosion investigation, prompting the party to take more forceful measures to try to end the investigation. “[The Saudis] want to raise the heat and heighten the contradictions,” Young said. “It’s just a question of making life more difficult for Hezbollah.”However, these attempts by Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries to weaken Iran and Hezbollah could have the opposite effect, leading to the duo being further empowered and the Lebanese people suffering because of this strategy. Supporters of Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri wave the Lebanese flag alongside the Saudi and Future Movement flags as they gather at his home in Beirut on November 22, 2017. Hariri, back in Beirut after a mysterious odyssey that saw him announce his resignation in Saudi Arabia, told cheering supporters that he was staying. Photo: Marwan Tahtah, AFP
A void to fill
But the Saudis’ attempt to knock Hezbollah down, according to Young, could lead to the situation in Lebanon worsening, especially as the hundreds of millions of dollars that are brought to Lebanon through their exports to the Gulf nations dry up. “The problem here, and I think it is a key issue, is that this is a strategy that could possibly lead to further breakdown in Lebanon,” Young stated. “And I don’t think that anyone in the international community wants to go down such a risky path. Not the Americans, not the French for a variety of reasons. And I don’t even think in the Arab world there is a consensus on this.”Egypt and Jordan are still standing with Lebanon. Egypt is preparing to provide natural gas to Lebanon in order to alleviate the country’s energy crisis. Even in the Gulf nations, not everyone is taking part in the ostracizing of Lebanon with Qatar not recalling their ambassador. The situation, however, could worsen if prolonged and if Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE and Kuwait decide to not allow remittances to be sent back to Lebanon, one of the few things holding the country afloat. “I would say that probably the next escalation stage would be that those expats that live abroad would not be allowed to send remittances home and I think that would be to some extent the final blow to the Lebanese economy,” Kleemann said. “Now, it’s basically a diplomatic front and, of course, the ban on imports from Lebanon which is worth around $200m per year of exports to Saudi [Arabia]. That is another blow for the Lebanese economy and it creates more pressure on the Lebanese government to get on with the IMF program because, now, more funds are drying up and the country needs money from somewhere.”
Even the Saudi efforts to dethrone Hezbollah could serve to empower the group as the Gulf absence in Lebanon leaves a large vacuum for Iran and its proxy to fill, something not lost on their supporters who cheered on as one country after the other announced their break in relations with Lebanon. “The move now would rather help Hezbollah and Iran in grabbing more influence over the state and disengaging, as the last five years have shown, actually has the opposite effect to what maybe the Saudis want to achieve,” Kleemann said. Young agreed, adding that any break in relations with outside powers, besides Iran, only help to empower the group.
“Hezbollah has been very unhappy in recent months to see that some Arab countries are trying to make a return to Lebanon,” he explained. “They don’t want to see any Arab influence that can water down Iran’s influence. This is doing exactly what they want if there were a breakdown in relations.”This strategy also puts Lebanon’s new prime minister, Najib Mikati, in a tough position. Currently, Mikati is in Glasgow, Scotland, in order to try and shore up support from the international community to help mediate the diplomatic crisis that his country is facing. When he returns home, he is going to face a major battle over what direction the country goes. A picture taken on November 10, 2017 shows a banner bearing the images of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz (R) and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (L) hanging on a pedestrian crossing bridge in the northern Lebanese port city of Tripoli, between them a caption reading in Arabic "firm and moderating leadership", days after Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation during a televised speech airing from the Saudi capital Riyadh. Hariri's announced resignation sparked concerns of a political crisis in Lebanon as tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalated. Photo: Joseph Eid, AFP.
Fight night: Lebanon
When Kordahi went to Bkirki to meet with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai, there was a lot of speculation that he was going to announce his resignation following the meeting. However, much to everyone’s surprise, Kordahi later told the press that his resignation was “out of the question.”Hezbollah has also made it abundantly clear that should Kordahi be forced out of the government, their bloc would also resign, toppling the government. This puts Mikati in a tricky situation as, according to Kleemann, he needs Kordahi to resign in order to give a concession to the Saudis. “There needs to be a concession and that would be that that minister [Kordahi] needs to resign,” the analyst explained. “Without some kind of symbolic concession, the Saudis would not backtrack on this because that would mean that they would lose face.” Prior to his Europe trip, Mikati had wanted Kordahi to resign in the hopes that it would mitigate some of the tensions. Now, when he returns to Lebanon, Mikati will have to stare down Hezbollah in the hopes that the group would blink first and concede this time. “Clearly Mikati wants [Kordahi] to resign,” Young stated. “Mikati is in a dilemma. He wants Kordahi out. And I think that it is increasingly likely that he’ll come back from his trip and say that either Kordahi goes or I go. In other words, he’s willing to tell Hezbollah ‘I will not continue to head a government with Kordahi in it. So, if you want him, keep him, but I’m resigning.”
The move now would rather help Hezbollah and Iran in grabbing more influence over the state and disengaging, as the last five years have shown, actually has the opposite effect to what maybe the Saudis want to achieve. Mikati is likely to refuse to be the leader of a government that is isolated by the rest of the Arab world. Also, Hezbollah does not want there to be another vacuum in Lebanon that would be formed by a third government resigning in three years, much less in the middle of one of the worst economic crises that the world has ever seen according to the World Bank. “It becomes a question of who wins that round,” Young said. “If Hezbollah does say ‘Okay resign,’ then suddenly Lebanon is back in another terrible vacuum and with all of the disastrous consequences for the country.”Kleemann argues that resigning is not realistically in the cards for Mikati since it would be the final nail in the coffin for Lebanon. “If he resigns, then Lebanon would be left with no government again and there would be no government until the next election if there is an election. I think Mikati knows that if Lebanon wants to somehow stabilize, a government is certainly needed,” he stated.
Because of this, both Kleemann and Young believe that Mikati, Hezbollah and Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement to which Kordahi is linked, will hammer out a compromise in an attempt to make all sides happy. With presidential elections scheduled to take place next year, Frangieh is also not going to risk a shot at the presidency over one ministerial position. “At the end of the day, to create a ministerial crisis over Kordahi is not, to my mind, worth it,” Young argued. “It’s not worth alienating Najib Mikati when the country is going through this serious situation simply for the sake of a minister who is not that important. We’re not talking about a major bloc here. We’re talking about Suleiman Frangieh. You can find a solution to Frangieh.” While Kordahi’s resignation, if it comes, would work to ease tensions with the Gulf, there would still be a long road ahead with the two sides having to negotiate in order to truly end the crisis.
“[Kordahi’s resignation] would now lead to extensive negotiations between the Lebanese government and the Gulf states,” Kleemann said. “For the moment at least, this would send a message that Lebanon has kind of gotten the [Saudi’s] message.”
*Nicholas Frakes is a multimedia journalist with @NOW_leb. He tweets @nicfrakesjourno.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 03-04/2021
Syria Reports Israel Air Raid on Military Post Near Damascus
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/November 03, 2021
Israeli air strikes hit positions held by the Syrian government and its pro-Iranian allies near Damascus overnight, a war monitor said on Wednesday. It was the second Israeli attack to target areas near the capital in four days. Syrian state news agency SANA confirmed the raids and said they caused only material damage. "The Israeli enemy launched an aerial aggression with a number of missiles," the news agency quoted a military source as saying, naming the targeted area as Zakia. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the targets were army positions and arms depots belonging to Iran-backed militias. Israel carries out raids on Syria mostly during nighttime. Wednesday's raid occurred shortly after midnight, Syria's military said. There has been an increase in reported Israel attacks in recent weeks. Similar strikes last week killed at least five militiamen, the Observatory said. Israel has staged hundreds of strikes on Iran-linked military targets in Syria over the years but rarely acknowledges or discusses such operations. Israel has acknowledged, however, that it is targeting bases of Iran-allied groups, such as Hizbullah. It is going after arms shipments believed to be bound for the group. Hizbullah is fighting on the side of Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces in the civil war. Israel says Iranian presence on its northern frontier is a red line, and it has repeatedly struck what it has described as Iran-linked facilities and weapons convoys destined for Hizbullah.

Iran nuclear talks with world powers to resume Nov. 29
AFP/November 03, 2021
DUBAI: Nuclear talks between world powers and Tehran on reviving the Iran nuclear deal will resume in Vienna on November 29, the EU said in a statement Wednesday. "The Joint Commission of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will convene in a physical format on 29 November in Vienna," said the EU's European External Action Service in a statement. The meeting would be chaired by Enrique Mora on behalf of EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, the statement added. The United States - which is willing to rejoin the deal if Iran rolls back nuclear advances it has made in retaliation for US sanctions - said an agreement was possible if Iran was "serious".In Tehran, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri, Iran's lead negotiator, confirmed the November 29 resumption of talks in Vienna. He tweeted that the date had been set in a phone call with Mora. The EU statement said that the remaining parties to the deal - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and Iran - would be represented. "Participants will continue the discussions on the prospect of a possible return of the United States to the JCPOA and how to ensure the full and effective implementation of the agreement by all sides," it said. Bagheri tweeted: "We agreed to start the negotiations aiming at removal of unlawful and inhumane sanctions on 29 November in Vienna."The United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 on orders from then president Donald Trump.

Iran says stopped US navy seizing tanker in Sea of Oman
AFP/November 03, 2021
TEHRAN: Iran said Wednesday it had thwarted an attempt by the US navy to seize a tanker in the Sea of Oman carrying its oil, state television reported. It gave no details of the date of the incident or the country where the vessel is registered. The report comes amid faltering efforts to revive Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers that would see a lifting of US sanctions on its oil exports. The sequence of events reported by the television report left key questions unanswered. “The United States stopped a tanker exporting Iranian oil and transferred its cargo to another tanker which it directed toward an unknown destination,” it said. “The naval arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards then captured the tanker with air support,” it said, without specifying which vessel it was referring to. “US forces again tried to block the passage of the tanker using a warship and several helicopters but again failed.
“The tanker is now in Iranian territorial waters.”Under the 2015 nuclear deal, Washington had lifted its sanctions on Iran’s oil exports in return for strict limits on its nuclear activities. But in 2018, then president Donald Trump abandoned the agreement and reimposed the sweeping sanctions. President Joe Biden has expressed willingness to rejoin the deal in exchange for Iran returning to the limits on its nuclear activities, but talks on the practicalities have been suspended since June.

Iran seized Vietnamese oil tanker: US officials
AP/November 03, 2021
DUBAI: Iran seized a Vietnamese-flagged oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman last month and still holds the vessel, two US officials told The Associated Press on Wednesday, revealing the latest provocation in Mideast waters as tensions escalate between Iran and the United States over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard troops took control of the MV Southys, a vessel that analysts suspect of trying to transfer sanctioned Iranian crude oil to Asia, on Oct. 24 at gunpoint. US forces had monitored the seizure, but ultimately didn’t take action as the vessel sailed into Iranian waters.
Iran celebrated their capture of the vessel in dramatic footage aired on state television, the day before the 42nd anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran. Officials at the Vietnamese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ship-tracking data analyzed by the AP from MarineTraffic.com showed the vessel still off Iran’s southern port of Bandar Abbas on Tuesday. A satellite photo from Planet Labs Inc. also showed the vessel off Bandar Abbas in recent days.
The two US officials spoke on condition of anonymity as the information had yet to be made public amid ongoing attempts to restart talks over Iran’s tattered 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Negotiations have stalled in Vienna since the election of hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in June, allowing Iran to press ahead with its nuclear program and raising alarm in Western capitals. Iran’s top nuclear negotiator said last week that talks would resume in November, but didn’t provide a specific date.
The officials spoke to AP after Iranian state TV offered a series of contradictory reports about a confrontation between the Guard and the US Navy’s Mideast-based 5th Fleet. State TV sought to cast the incident as an act of American aggression against Iran in the Gulf of Oman, with the US Navy detaining a tanker carrying Iranian oil and the Guard freeing it and bringing it back to the Islamic Republic.
The US officials dismissed Iran’s version of events. Tehran also did not provide details of the ship’s name, nor any explanation of why the Navy might target it. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Iranian officials heralded the ship’s impoundment as a heroic act, with Raisi lauding the Revolutionary Guard on Twitter. The country’s oil minister, Javad Owji, thanked the Guard for “rescuing the Iranian oil tanker from American pirates.”
State TV released footage showing an Iranian surveillance drone monitoring a hulking red tanker in the Gulf of Oman. Heavily armed Iranian commandos then rappelled onto the boat from a helicopter as small speedboats surrounded the vessel and an Iranian catamaran ship patrolled the waters.
The video appeared to show Iranian Guard troops pointing uncovered deck-mounted machine guns at the USS The Sullivans, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer. Photos released by the US military show The Sullivans recently in the Arabian Sea near the Gulf of Oman.
The status and makeup of the Sothys’ crew wasn’t immediately known. A shipping database showed the vessel’s last registered owner as OPEC Petrol Transportation Co., a firm with a Hanoi address. A telephone number for the company could not immediately be found.
However, the Southys had been on the radar of United Against a Nuclear Iran, a New York-based advocacy group long suspicious of the Islamic Republic. In a letter dated Oct. 11 addressed to the Vietnam Maritime Administration, the group said its analysis of satellite photos showed the Southy received a ship-to-ship transfer of oil in June from an oil tanker called the Oman Pride.
The US Treasury identified the Oman Pride in August as being used to transport Iranian oil as part of a smuggling scheme to enrich the Guard’s expeditionary Quds Force. That Iranian oil ends up being sold into East Asia, the Treasury alleged, without identifying a specific country.
Iran’s seizure of the Southys would be the latest in a string of hijackings and explosions to roil the Gulf of Oman, which sits near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Arabian Gulf through which a fifth of all traded oil passes. The US Navy blamed Iran for a series of limpet mine attacks on vessels that damaged tankers in 2019, as well as for a fatal drone attack on an Israeli-linked oil tanker that killed two European crew members earlier this year. Just a few months ago, Iranian hijackers stormed and briefly captured a Panama-flagged asphalt tanker off the United Arab Emirates. Tehran denies carrying out the attacks, but a wider shadow war between Iran and the West has played out in the region’s volatile waters since then-President Donald Trump withdrew the US from Iran’s nuclear deal in 2018 and imposed crushing sanctions on the country.

Israel government’s fate hangs on key budget vote
AFP/November 03, 2021
JERUSALEM: The Israeli government’s budget headed for parliamentary approval Wednesday, a key test that will largely determine whether Prime Minister Nafatali Bennett’s ideologically disparate eight-party coalition remains in power. Israel has not passed a state budget in three years, a symptom of the unprecedented political gridlock that plagued the country from December 2018 until June when the Bennett government was sworn in. His coalition has until November 14 to get the budget approved or Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, will be dissolved, forcing new elections. “We are at the finish line and before us are exhausting days and long nights in the Knesset, but the budget will pass,” Bennett said ahead of a cabinet meeting Thursday. The government has proposed a 609-billion shekel ($194-billion) spending plan for 2021 and 573 billion shekels for next year. Bennett’s government secured preliminary approval for a spending package in September, a technical step that allowed Knesset committees to scrutinize the proposals. The committees were due to wrap up their reviews on Wednesday evening, when a general parliamentary debate on the package could commence. The formal voting process may not begin until Thursday or later and the approval process could take several days. Bennett told lawmakers that “passing the budget should be treated as the biggest, only challenge in the next few days. “This is the mission, and we need to meet it.” Bennett’s government — which includes right-wingers, centrists, doves and Islamists — controls just 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. It was a budget deadlock that sank the last, short-lived coalition led by former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his alternate premier Benny Gantz. Gantz accused Netanyahu of deliberately blocking the budget’s passage to force an election, which the premier hoped would secure him and his right-wing allies an outright Knesset majority. But Netanyahu came up short in the March vote for the fourth time in two years, paving the way for Bennett and Yair Lapid, now the foreign minister, to forge a coalition. There have been widespread reports that Netanyahu, now the opposition leader, has been encouraging hawks within the government to vote against the budget, in hopes of triggering its collapse. “We are pulling the country toward stability and there are those who are pulling it toward chaos, to more elections,” Bennett said Thursday. On Tuesday night, hundreds of right-wing protesters gathered in Tel Aviv to denounce the “corrupt” budget, charging that it harms ultra-Orthodox Jews and lavishes spending on the Arab community. But a lawmaker in Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party, David Bitan, told army radio he expected the budget to be approved. The government has approved nearly $10 billion in funding over five years to improve socio-economic conditions for Israel’s Arab minority, while hiking some taxes that the ultra-Orthodox argue will affect them the most.

Sudanese army in talks with Hamdok over return as premier
The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
KHARTOUM--The Sudanese army is negotiating with the prime minister it ousted in a coup last week over an agreement that could see him return as premier, sources close to the politician said on Wednesday. The sources denied a report that Abdalla Hamdok had yet agreed to return to lead a government. Hamdok has been under house arrest since his government was toppled by military chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the coup which derailed a transition towards civilian rule and led Western donors to freeze aid. Mediation efforts have been under way for several days in search of a negotiated way out of the crisis. The source close to Hamdok said on Wednesday no agreement had been reached between him and military leaders and talks were still going on. Earlier, the Saudi-owned al Arabiya TV, quoting other unnamed sources, said Hamdok had agreed to return to lead a government. In a separate report, a media outlet affiliated with al Arabiya, al Hadath TV, said Hamdok wanted political detainees released as a condition for agreeing to lead a government. Sources who met Hamdok last week said he was seeking the reversal of the coup and the release of detainees before the possibility of further talks.

Saudi Arabia, UAE, US, UK Urge Restoration of Sudan Civilian-Led Rule
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, United States, and United Kingdom called for the “full and immediate restoration” of Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government and institutions in a joint statement on Wednesday.They also urged the lifting of Sudan’s state of emergency and the release of those recently detained, according to the statement released by the US State Department. They affirmed “their countries’ stance with the people of Sudan and emphasize the importance of supporting their aspirations for a democratic and peaceful nation.”“The protests of October 30 demonstrated the depth of the Sudanese people’s commitment to advancing their country’s transition, and we remain committed to helping them achieve these aspirations.” “We endorse the international community’s serious concern with the situation in Sudan,” they continued. “We call for the full and immediate restoration of its civilian-led transitional government and institutions. We call upon all parties to strive for cooperation and unity in reaching this critical objective.”“In that vein we encourage the release of all those detained in connection with recent events and the lifting of the state of emergency. Violence has no place in the new Sudan, on this point we encourage an effective dialogue between all parties, and we urge all to ensure that the peace and security for the people of Sudan is a top priority.”Saudi Arabia, the UAE, US and UK also stressed “the importance of the commitment to the Constitutional Document and the Juba Peace Agreement as the foundation for further dialogue about how to restore and uphold a genuine civil-military partnership for the remainder of the transitional period, pending elections.”“This will help ensure Sudan reaches political stability and economic recovery so that it is able to continue the transitional period with the support of Sudan’s friends and international partners.”

Sudan’s Hamdok Wants Coup Reversed as Condition for Dialogue
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Sudan’s ousted Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok is maintaining his condition that all detainees be released and the situation returns to the status quo before the military coup of Oct. 25 before he will engage in a dialogue to find a settlement to the crisis, his spokesman said on Facebook on Wednesday. The Sudanese army is still negotiating with the prime minister over an agreement that could see him return as premier, sources close to him said on Wednesday. The sources denied a report that Hamdok had agreed to return to lead a government.
Hamdok has been under house arrest since his government was toppled by military chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the coup which derailed a transition towards civilian rule and led Western donors to freeze aid. Mediation efforts have been underway for several days in search of a negotiated way out of the crisis. Earlier, Al Arabiya TV, quoting unnamed sources, said Hamdok had agreed to return to lead a government. In a separate report, a media outlet affiliated with Al Arabiya, Al Hadath TV, said Hamdok wanted political detainees released as a condition for agreeing to lead a government.

Palestinians Demand British Recognition of Their State As an Apology for 'Balfour Declaration’
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Palestinian officials demanded Britain to recognize the Palestinian state and apologize for the Balfour Declaration, on the 104th anniversary of the promise made by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour in 1917, in which he granted the Jews a homeland in Palestine. Commissioner General of Fatah International Relations Rawhi Fattouh said that Britain should correct the historical error and recognize the Palestinian state, as well as “put pressure on the occupying state to stop its crimes and continuous violations against our people, and end its occupation of Palestinian land.”“The invalid Balfour Declaration issued by British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour in 1917… will remain a wound in the human conscience, because of the catastrophe that it caused, the effects of which are still casting dark shadows on Palestine and the region,” Fattouh said. On Tuesday, Palestinians in Gaza marked 104 years since the Balfour Declaration. Ahmed Abu Houli, member of the PLO Executive Committee, said that Britain should “apologize to our Palestinian people for the promise that marked the beginning of the most heinous historical injustice against a people, their land, and their right to their homeland.” The Palestinian official said that the best way to apologize for this promise was for Britain to recognize the state of Palestine. The General Secretariat of the League of Arab States called on Britain on Tuesday to correct the “historical mistake and assume its historical, legal and moral responsibility by offering an apology to the Palestinian people and recognizing the Palestinian state based on the borders prevailing before June 4, 1967, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in support of achieving a just and lasting peace, according to the vision of the two-state solution.”The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) also renewed its commitment to support the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, on the occasion of the 104th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration.

Sadr Warns against Sectarian Strife in Iraq’s Diyala
Baghdad – Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Political and popular reactions continued to pour in in wake of the terrorist attack in Iraq’s Diyala last week that killed and injured 30 people, the majority of whom were from the Shiite Bani Tamim tribe. Meanwhile, militias have been forcibly displacing locals from the area in wake of the attack. The Ministry of Migration and Displaced said some 227 families have fled the Muqdadiya city, while a rights group said on Tuesday that some 480 have fled to safety out of fear of reprisals by militias believed to be linked to some Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) factions. Sadrist movement leader, cleric Moqtada al-Sadr warned of impending “sectarian strife” in Diyala. In a tweet, he urged security forces to work hard to protect the borders and deploy rapidly to curb the dangers. Commenting on the Diyala unrest, former MP Dhafer al-Ani said: “The state has transformed into nothing more than a humanitarian organization. Instead of preventing killings and displacement among the people of Muqdadiya, we see it offering free burial shrouds to the martyrs and shelter and a million dinars to the displaced.”The Ministry of Migration and Displaced has said on Sunday it was allocating a million dinars, or 650 dollars, to each displaced family.
Security forces have notably not commented on the developments in Diyala. The Emtidad movement, which is affiliated with the October 2019 anti-government protests, condemned the unrest. The movement, which won nine seats in the recent parliamentary elections, addressed the Iraqi people and residents of Diyala, saying it rejects the exploitation of innocent civilians “in settling political scores and forcing demographic changes that only serve sectarian powers and militias that thrive on chaos.”It urged the security agencies to address the situation and prevent displacement in all its forms. The Afada rights monitor painted a bleak and tragic picture in Diyala.
In a report, it said: “Armed forces are once against using sectarian violence against the local population in several villages in the northeastern regions of the province.”“All this is taking place before the eyes of the government authorities in Baghdad and regular security forces, in one of the latest chapters of systematic violence in the province,” it added. It said militants associated with the Badr organization, led by Hadi al-Ameri, and another operating under the PMF have carried out field executions against unarmed civilians. They have also burned down and destroyed homes in the Nahr al-Imam village.
It reported that as of Tuesday, 12 Iraqis, including two children, were directly killed in Nahr al-Imam. All testimonies point to more victims that have also been executed by the militias that stormed the village late on October 26. Witnesses, security forces and families of the victims told the monitor that the developments are part of a sectarian campaign carried out by factions, which are protected by the government and state, with the purpose of creating demographic change. Journalist Ahmed Abdulsada, who is affiliated with the militias and armed factions, had openly called on Friday for the “sectarian purification” of some Sunni regions of Diyala, such as Shawk al-Rim, Nahr al-Imam and al-Harounia “after they have become ISIS colonies and a base for it to launch attacks against Shiites in Muqdadiya and other regions.”Abdulsada’s comments were vehemently condemned by Iraqis.

Turkey Says Military Operation in N.Syria Will Take Place ‘at Right Time
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Turkey said it would not step back from its military operation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northern Syria. On Monday night, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that the military operation against the People's Protection Units (YPG), a major component of the Kurdish SDF, will take place when the time is right. Speaking on the possible operation, he said: “Of course, the operation will be carried out when necessary. There will be no going back and we cannot possibly give up on our fight against terrorist organizations.”Erdogan also called on the US to stop its support to the YPG. Ankara, however, did not comment on Russian reports on Monday that said the Turkish army intended to kick off the attack this week. Turkey intends to launch a military operation against the SDF on Tuesday, and it ordered its allied opposition groups to prepare for the operation, a source told the RIA Novosti new agency. A spokesman for the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army denied the reports, saying they were Russian attempts to pressure the SDF in wake of stumbling negotiations between Moscow and Damascus with the Kurdish force. Meanwhile, Ankara has been sending military reinforcements to Syria, deploying them in areas stretching from the Idlib province to east of the Euphrates River in the northeast. In the past two weeks, senior Turkish officials have signaled that a new operation could take place against SDF near the Turkish border in northern Syria. Newspapers close to the Turkish government said the attack will be launched against two out of five positions: Ain Issa in the countryside of Raqqa, Manbij in the countryside of Aleppo, Tal Rifaat also in the countryside of Aleppo, Ain Arab or Tal Tamer in the countryside of Hasakeh.

Syria to End Subsidies for Richest Citizens
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Syria will lift subsidies on basic goods such as bread and gasoline for around 800,000 of its richest citizens by the end of the year to help ease the burden on state finances, officials said on Wednesday. The move will affect high-earners working in the private sector who can buy essentials with ration cards at a reduced cost. “There are segments of society that do not need subsidies... I mean those who have money,” Internal Trade Minister Amro Salem told a press conference. Amro said removing the subsidies would help the poorest in a country of over 18 million people whose economy has been devastated by a decade-old war, and where salaries and subsidies account for the bulk of state spending. Syria introduced ration cards to ease chronic shortages. The government has increased public sector pay sharply as inflation spirals. The economy has shrunk by around 60% since the start of the conflict, according to the World Bank and independent economists.

Russian, Turkish Officers Hold ‘Operational Meeting’ in North Syria
Qamishli – Idlib – Kamal Sheikhou – Firas Karam/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Russian and Turkish military officers, on Tuesday, held an operational meeting in north Syria, reported a UK-based war monitor. “Russian officers have arrived at the Turkish base in the Jabal Aqil area of the city of Al-Bab east of Aleppo,” said the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights, revealing that the officials had arrived on board a helicopter to meet with Turkish officers. Russian helicopters flew over the city of Al-Bab at a low altitude until the meeting was over. This comes at a time military movement is taking place in northern and eastern Syria. Ankara threatens to launch a military operation against areas controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This coincided with the regime and SDF military buildup in the area. Military and local sources said that Russian military helicopters carried out intensive military training maneuvers in the airspace of Al-Bab city in the eastern countryside of Aleppo. The helicopters flew at a low altitude over the front lines separating regime forces deployed in the southern and eastern countryside of Al-Bab from SDF forces stationed in its eastern countryside and the town of al-Arima and nearby villages. It is noteworthy that Syrian National Army factions loyal to Turkey control Al-Bab’s center and its northern and western countryside. At the same time, the Observatory, citing local sources, reported that the Russian forces held drills in Abu Soura and Sareen regions. The sources said a fighter jet, as well as two attack helicopters, took part in the maneuvers. They added that live munitions were used during the military exercise, as the Russian military aircraft carried out bombing operations against designated targets. The development came a day after Russian helicopters overflew Tal al-Abyad town in northern Syria, as they were on a reconnaissance mission in the area. Syrian government forces conducted military maneuvers on the outskirts of Tell Tamr town in the western part of the country’s northeastern al-Hasakah Province on Sunday. Russian jets flew at low altitudes during the drills and launched anti-missile flares.

US Holds onto ‘Deconfliction Channel’ with Russia in Northeastern Syria
Washington, London - Elie Youssef and Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby reaffirmed that Washington wants to maintain the “deconfliction channel” with Moscow in Syria. In a press briefing, Kirby declined on Monday to comment on Moscow’s deployment of aircraft in eastern Syria near US forces. He moved on to clarify that the US has a deconfliction channel with the Russians to “make sure that there isn’t miscalculation and unintended consequences.”Kirby’s comments came in response to reports about Moscow deploying Su-35 fighter jets in the city of Qamishli, eastern Syria, near US forces. Russian warplanes had staged maneuvers near the bases of the US army and Turkish forces deployed in northeastern Syria. They flew over the southern countryside of Tal Abyad district in the city of Raqqa and conducted military maneuvers with live ammunition near points of contact with Turkish forces and Syrian opposition factions.
Military exercises over Tal Abyad came only a day after Russian and Syrian regime forces had staged drills over the countryside of the northern al-Hasakeh governorate. Moscow has deployed eight Russian Su-35 aircraft at Tabqa airport, located in the western countryside of the Raqqa governorate, with the aim of carrying out military training and maneuvers for Syrian regime pilots. This is the first time that the Russian Air Force has deployed Sukhoi combat aircraft in this region. Before, Russian forces in the area were limited to a few Mi-17 and Mi-25 helicopters and the air defense system at Qamishli airport. The airspace of the abovementioned region has become overly crowded with air forces from three international parties that are the US-led International Coalition, Russia, and Turkey. US warplanes are deployed at bases in al-Hasakeh, while Russian fighter jets are deployed at a large airbase situated near Qamishli’s airport and another one located in al-Tabaqa town.

Egypt Govt to Begin Move to New Administrative Capital in December
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
The Egyptian government will start the process in December of moving offices to a new administrative capital located east of Cairo, a spokesman for the presidency said on Wednesday in a statement. President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi “directed the government to start the actual transfer to the government district in the New Administrative Capital starting in December for a trial period of 6 months,” he said. The new capital is designed as a high-tech “smart city” to accommodate 6.5 million residents and ease congestion in Cairo. The city will include a government district, a business district, vast parks and a diplomatic district.

Tunisia Says Tunnel Found near French Ambassador's Residence
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
An anti-terrorism raid in Tunisia uncovered a tunnel being dug in the vicinity of the French ambassador's residence from a house frequented by a known extremist, the Interior Ministry said Wednesday. The ministry's statement did not indicate the tunnel's purpose or whether the ambassador's residence was a target. It said anti-terrorism officials and prosecutors were investigating, The Associated Press said. A tip-off alerted security services to suspicious activity at the house in La Marsa, a coastal suburb of the Tunisian capital, Tunis, where the French ambassador also lives, the Interior Ministry said. A subsequent raid uncovered the tunneling. The ministry statement didn't say how close the house is to the French ambassador's residence. A known extremist is among people who frequented the house that was raided, the ministry said. It did not say if there were any arrests.
The French Embassy said it had no comment. The street outside the ambassador's residence was calm Wednesday morning.

Moroccan parliament seeks greater role to consolidate diplomatic gains
The Arab Weekly/November 03/2021
RABAT--The office of the House of Councillors (the second chamber of parliament in Morocco) reiterated its readiness to permanently mobilise its bodies in order to defend the higher interests of the kingdom within the framework of effective diplomacy and in line with the directions of Moroccan King Mohammed VI. According to a statement from the office of the House of Councillors following a meeting held late on Monday on the Council’s agenda for the current week, the president and members of the office discussed the Security Council’s recent decision to extend the mandate of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) for another year. The president and members of the office stressed the importance of this decision, which reinforced the gains achieved by the kingdom, foremost of which is securing the Guerguerat crossing and reopening it to commercial traffic, the American recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara and the opening of consular representations in the southern provinces of the kingdom. The House of Councillors also said that the Security Council’s decision was an important reaction to all manoeuvres and tactics adopted by the opponents of the kingdom’s territorial integrity and reaffirmed the significance of the autonomy proposal submitted by Morocco in 2007. “The president and members of the office expressed their deep pride and satisfaction with the gains that Morocco has achieved in this regard, thanks to the personal involvement and permanent follow-up of King Mohammed VI,” the office’s statement said. The office also discussed the diplomatic work plan for the Council of Advisers for the period 2021-2024, with the aim of improving the diplomatic performance of the Council, in a way that serves the higher interests of the country, in line with the efforts made by the kingdom’s official diplomacy under the king’s leadership. The House of Councillors also decided to join the 143rd Assembly of the Inter-Parliamentary Union, to be held in the Spanish capital, Madrid, from November 26 to November 30. This comes at a time when Morocco has succeeded in mobilising broad international support for its proposal for autonomy for Western Sahara, a proposal rejected by the Algerian-backed separatist Polisario Front. Morocco’s latest diplomatic gain came when the UN Security Council issued a decision last Friday to extend the mandate of the MINURSO mission and called for the resumption of negotiations on Western Sahara, in a move that angered Algeria.

Family Rift Rocks Kurdish PUK Party in Iraq
Erbil – Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 3 November, 2021
Lahur Talabany, co-chair of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), was expelled from the party on Tuesday alongside three other leadership members because of an internal rift. As a result of the power struggle, assassination attempts were carried out against several PUK leaders, including Mala Bakhtiyar.
Four other PUK members, some of whom did poorly in the recent parliamentary elections, were also ejected from the party. A source within the party identified them as Shadman Mala Hassan, Ala Talabani, Zhino Mohammed, and Aras Sheikh Jangi. The source, who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat on condition of anonymity, confirmed that “the decision came following the results of the elections and the developments of the internal conflict between the wings of the PUK.” Disputes have been on the rise between Bafel Talabani, co-chair of the PUK, and his cousin, Lahur Talabany. The Evaluation and Follow-up Committee, formed by the PUK’s political bureau, works to assess internal conditions, and its decisions are supposed to be ratified by the party’s Supreme Political Council. LahurTalabany, in a Facebook post, announced that “the party’s Leadership Council, as the highest authority, is working to meet as soon as possible to play its role in finding solutions to the crisis that the PUK is going through.”After Lahur Talabany was forced out, Bafel Talabani claimed he had been poisoned by people close to his rival. Bakhtiyar, a senior official PUK and father-in-law to Bafel Talabani, also claimed this week that he had been poisoned and is receiving treatment in Germany. On Monday, he blamed “comrades” for the poisoning without naming anyone. Lahur Talabany said the party must “avoid these accusations” and called on the Leadership Council to convene soon to resolve the rift, saying: “If there is an issue within the party, then that must be resolved through the party’s official organs.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 03-04/2021
Biden Warns Erdogan in a ‘Positive’ Way
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/November 03/2021
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan finally got his meeting with Joe Biden last Sunday after the Americans had postponed it for several days. Erdogan said in September that he did not have good relations with Biden and the bilateral relationship between their countries was not healthy. Biden has not made talking to Erdogan a priority in the past, but a White House official said the October 31 talks were “constructive.” The Turkish Presidency stated that the meeting had a “very positive atmosphere.”
Perhaps Erdogan believes that just as with Donald Trump, his speaking with Biden personally will improve the bilateral relationship. That would be a mistake, however. Trump didn’t like the national security bureaucracy in Washington and in the last two years of his presidency he didn’t consult often with his foreign policy advisors. He refused to nominate a Defense Secretary after James Mattis resigned in 2019 to protest Trump’s policy in Syria.
Biden, by contrast, works very closely with his foreign policy team. If the Biden team has a weakness, it is that they have long experience working together and so they don’t find big new ideas outside their circle. But compared to Trump, President Biden consults with his advisors a lot.
Therefore, when Erdogan raised the issue of Turkey buying more F-16 warplanes, Biden’s answer was careful. There is a process step-by-step to follow, and American officials were careful not to promise a deal. The Departments of State and Defense must approve the sale of the warplanes and then the Congress also must approve it. And the two presidents’ meeting last Sunday didn’t dispel the clouds over the bilateral relationship.
From Washington’s viewpoint, the biggest cloud is the Turkish purchase of the S-400 air defense missiles from Russia. Washington has imposed serious sanctions against the Turkish Defense Industries Directorate and the company’s top officials. There is real anger in Washington that Turkey would risk the security of the huge, expensive F-35 fighter plane project. There is also shock that Turkey ignored many warnings from Washington.
There is little discussion or understanding in Washington about the reasons behind Erdogan’s decision. In the absence of understanding, many leaders in Washington presume that Erdogan is trying to use Russia as a tool to extract concessions from Washington and there is resentment towards Ankara which is supposed to be a military ally. In addition to this, repeated rhetorical threats from Turkey against Greece, as well as naval and aerial confrontations between Turkey and Greece in the Eastern Mediterranean have added to the perception that Erdogan is no longer a genuine NATO ally. Remember that there is a lobby in Washington that supports Greece.
Erdogan’s actions against domestic opponents hurt his government’s credibility in Washington where the predominant perception is that all NATO members should be democracies. Of course, historically NATO was not a club of democracies. The Turkish military several times overthrew civilian governments, most recently in 1980, and there was never a crisis with the Americans. The Greek military overthrew the elected government there in 1967 and ruled until 1974 without big American criticism. Hungary and Poland are becoming less democratic in recent years. But unlike Greece 50 years ago or Poland and Hungary now, Turkey has threatened other members of the North Atlantic alliance with military force, and thus, Erdogan’s style of governing is more open to criticism from other NATO members.
It was no surprise, therefore, that my old colleague Ambassador David Satterfield, now the American ambassador in Ankara, signed a draft letter written by Scandinavian officials urging Ankara to resolve the case of a jailed Turkish political opponent. Biden and Secretary of State Blinken emphasize human rights are an important element in their foreign policy. And if Satterfield hadn’t signed the letter, Biden’s critics in Washington, and the many critics of Turkey in the American capital would have politically exploited Satterfield’s refusal.
Satterfield’s signature on the letter almost caused a major crisis between Washington and Ankara. I cannot imagine Biden would have met Erdogan last Sunday if Erdogan had actually implemented his threat and expelled the American ambassador. Satterfield, a very experienced diplomat, found a compromise solution and so the crisis passed, allowing the meeting last week to proceed. But you could see Biden’s warning to Erdogan in the October 31 meeting: bilateral relations will suffer if Erdogan surprises the Americans again with Russian weapons or acts against American interests (for example, intervening in northeast Syria against the Syrian Democratic Forces) or on human rights.
The implicit Biden message was that if Erdogan undertakes hasty actions that provoke resentment in Washington again, Biden will not risk his political standing in Washington to defend Turkey’s F-16 request against opponents. And, of course, if that fighter sale collapses, we will see an even bigger crisis in the relations between Washington and Ankara.

Why Turkey is keen to project power in the Gulf of Guinea
Dr. Theodore Karasik/ Arab News//November 03/2021
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to three Gulf of Guinea countries last month brings attention to the importance not only of this body of water, but also the competition for influence there. The Gulf of Guinea is hotter than ever.
Erdogan visited Angola, Togo and Nigeria on his latest visit to Africa. The trip’s plotting emphasizes the role these three states play in the immediate future of Ankara’s interests in this part of the continent.
In 2005, Turkey began its new policy approach to Africa. The “Africa opening” doctrine is key to Ankara’s approach to political and economic relations on the continent. With the appropriate mix of soft power tactics, Turkey has made important inroads into the Gulf of Guinea area. Following the successful development of Somalian security solutions for tackling piracy off the coast of that country, Turkey quickly turned its attention to this part of Africa, along with other actors such as Russia and China.
Nigeria is the key state on the Gulf of Guinea and is Turkey’s largest trading partner in this region. It is the origin of much of the crime that takes place on the waterways draining into the Gulf of Guinea. Erdogan first visited Nigeria in 2016. In April 2018, the two countries signed a defense agreement for training and equipping Nigeria’s armed forces. The Turkish president has developed a close friendship with Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, which is important in the new energy environment.
A Turkish ambassador pointed out the historical connections that Turkey has with this part of Africa, especially Nigeria. Relations between the Ottoman Empire and the Kanem-Bornu Empire that existed in the 16th century translate today into Ankara’s soft power by emphasizing its ties with Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Such concepts make up part of Ankara’s outlook, which is attractive to many audiences.
Erdogan showed another side to Ankara’s soft power capabilities in the visit to Angola. Angola is just as key for Turkey as Nigeria because of the historical role former President Jose Eduardo dos Santos played in anti-colonial movements and sentiment. Angola was a Soviet client state with a strong Cuban presence during the Cold War. That memory is still strong and how Ankara and Moscow see Angola is important in terms of geostrategic outlook. Ankara is building on ideology, while Moscow is looking at logistics — an almost complete flip in terms of policy outlook.
Importantly, Erdogan spoke to the Angolan parliament. He warned that the fate of humanity cannot and should not be left at the mercy of a handful of countries that won the Second World War, in reference to the West, but also to Russia. “There are still those who cannot accept the independence, freedom and equality gains of the African peoples. We have been witnessing the recurrence of this indigestion recently,” he said in reference to the influence of other external powers.
Moreover, from Erdogan’s point of view, it is important to embrace the peoples of the African continent without discrimination. The Turkish president rejects “Western-centered orientalist” approaches to the African continent, as he pointedly told the Angola parliament. This type of approach also helps to play against Francophone interests.
On the security front, Angola is in a prime position to receive Turkish-made combat drones and armored carriers to add to the country’s growing arsenal. Ankara sold its first piece of equipment to Angola 19 years ago, so there is a long tradition of bilateral defense cooperation.
All of the above fits into the maritime sector and Turkey’s access, just like any of the other extra-regional actors in the Gulf of Guinea. Many different countries have deployed counterpiracy missions in these waters. Turkey’s involvement is not new, as its navy commandos have dealt with freeing hijacked boats.
With the appropriate mix of soft power tactics, Ankara has made important inroads into the region.
Thus, maritime security and the maintenance of free transit is a key factor. Key ports — including Abidjan and Sassandra in Ivory Coast, the Port of Pennington in Nigeria, Kome Kribi 1 Marine Terminal and the Port of Kribi in Cameroon, and Puerto Macias in Equatorial Guinea — are the outlet for hundreds of millions of people along this Atlantic arc of West Africa. Turkey has built up a steady portfolio of interests over the past two decades that are part of its trade ecosystem. The fact that Erdogan visited Nigeria and Angola shows Turkey is targeting the transport of oil from two of Africa’s largest producers. The transit of these goods is important for international commerce.
Russia’s place on this maritime map is of high interest. Moscow’s deployment of the destroyer Vice-Admiral Kulakov to the Gulf of Guinea on a counterpiracy mission at the moment of Erdogan’s visit was reminiscent of the power games the two countries are playing in various other theaters. The Russian ship dispatched a helicopter to allow marines to board the MSC Lucia, which had been hijacked 86 nautical miles southwest of the Agbami Oil Terminal, part of Nigeria’s offshore Agbami Field. But upon arrival and inspection by the Russian marines, the pirates had already left. A distress call had gone out, but the timing and lack of evidence suggests geopolitical and “optic” games.
Erdogan’s Gulf of Guinea visit is yet another stage in the development of Turkey’s foreign policy doctrine, which is in a very active stage of projection, where sea access is important to achieving its national strategic goals.
*Dr. Theodore Karasik is a senior adviser to Gulf State Analytics in Washington, D.C. Twitter: @tkarasik

Why OPEC+ should stick to its strategy, despite COP26
Frank Kane/Arab News//November 03/2021
While the arch-environmentalists call for the abolition of all fossil fuels at the 2021 UN Climate Change Conference, or COP26, in Glasgow, over in Vienna the sharp end of the oil industry is getting down to business.
The regular monthly meeting of the OPEC+ partnership — the alliance of producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — is due on Nov. 4, and, while the broad outline of the strategy is clear, one issue is likely to dominate this and future meetings: The calls by some non-OPEC+ countries for the organization to increase output.
US President Joe Biden has led these calls. He sees the price of a barrel of crude rising to around $85 and — for a variety of reasons domestic, geopolitical and environmental — would like to see more crude being pumped to blunt that price spike.
Forget for a moment the fact that the solution lies in his own hands if he were to lift regulatory restrictions and investment pressure on his own industry so that shale producers could get the rigs loaded up again.
That would go a good way to increasing the global total. In October, US oil output stood at 11 million barrels per day, some 2 million down from its pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ on the other hand was pumping 27.8 million, just 500,000 short of its production before the pandemic struck. But even apart from that, there are very good reasons why OPEC+ should not deviate from the strategy painstakingly agreed upon in the summer to increase output by 400,000 barrels per month until the end of 2022.For one thing, the global energy market is in such a state of volatility at the moment, with gas and coal prices soaring, that OPEC+ policy can be regarded as a benchmark of stability. If things get even more volatile in the event of a sudden cold snap in the US and Europe, oil stability and accessibility will be much appreciated.
There are very good reasons why OPEC+ should not deviate from the strategy painstakingly agreed upon in the summer
True, there has been some evidence of switching from gas and coal to oil as prices rose and crude became comparatively competitive, but it is not clear how much this has added to global demand. Some experts put it at just 500,000, which is minimal in the broader scheme of things.
OPEC+ must also have an eye firmly on the future. Investment in the oil industry was so badly impacted by the price collapses of 2020 that it has still not recovered, and a period of sustained higher prices is required to encourage investment for the future (regardless of what the Glasgow activists think.)
On top of this, many experts are predicting a deficit between supply and demand next year as the OPEC+ policy of gradual monthly increases is rolled out. If Biden waits just a few months, he is likely to have all the oil he wants in 2022. To add to that with an extra supply increase now would lead to further imbalance in the global market, which took so long to get back in order after 2020.
In fact, some OPEC+ members have already significantly increased output since the summer. Gulf Cooperation Council producers have been pumping more, and the biggest producer — Saudi Arabia — is back around pre-pandemic levels.
Other OPEC+ members are constrained to meet even the levels agreed upon by the organization last summer. Several African countries are struggling to meet their new, increased targets. Recovery from the hit of 2020 has taken those countries longer than anticipated.
So, all these are good, logical reasons why OPEC+ should stick to its plan at the upcoming Vienna meeting. Despite the febrile atmosphere in the midst of the COP26 event, with geopolitical pressures rising, logic should still be the deciding factor.
• Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai.

Governments have a responsibility to tackle housing crisis
Ranvir S. Nayar/Arab News//November 03/2021
In Sweden, the government fell in June this year when it introduced legislation that would have led to a rise in house rents. And in the recent elections in Germany and Canada, political parties promised new policies to keep house prices and rents in check, as cities across the world are registering an unprecedented spike in real estate prices, even as the rest of the economy struggles to keep pace.
The issue is not limited to the developed economies in the West. In China, for instance, one of the motivations for a recent crackdown on real estate companies like Evergrande was the spiraling rise in house prices that has led the average price of a house in Shenzhen, the hub of the Chinese tech industry, to rise to 43.5 times the average annual salary.
Prices in Seoul have risen by more than 90 percent in less than four years, while price rises in European cities like London, Berlin, Frankfurt and Paris are beating previous records. In the US, rises in 2021 have left the 2008 housing bubble, which eventually led to the worldwide financial crisis, seem like a recession.
What has been the biggest surprise is that, even as the pandemic raged across the world, house prices kept on rising as if powered by some miracle, especially as economic uncertainty led to every other sector collapsing.
The situation is now so serious that most governments, whether on the right or left, are being forced to introduce policies aimed at curbing the inflation afflicting the sector. In Berlin, for instance, the municipality has bought almost 15,000 apartments from corporate owners for €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) in order to lease them to the weaker sections of society. Similarly, some other governments are bringing in or tightening rent control laws. In Canada’s recent election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party promised to bar foreigners from buying up homes in order to keep prices in check.
The situation has turned so serious across the world that it is threatening the futures of hundreds of millions of young people, who are seeing their dream of owning a home evaporate into thin air. Many of them are not even able to afford to rent a house on their own and are being forced to move back in with their parents.
But even harder hit than the young are the underprivileged sections of society, notably single parents, who are facing the prospect of being rendered homeless in the face of the rise in both rents and house prices.
There are two main reasons behind the price rises. One is, of course, the issue of supply and demand. In most countries, homes are in extremely short supply, especially in places where an abundance of jobs are available or where jobs are much sought-after, such as in technology or financial services. This short supply is partly to be blamed on governments, as they keep a strict check on building rules within cities and most urban development programs fail to adequately account for demand, meaning cities tend to run out of homes.
Another reason is that, with low interest rates, housing offers one of the best places for investors to park their funds. This speculative buying leads to the disappearance of the few homes that come on to the market.
With a severe shortage of homes, even those looking to buy a house on their own are forced to rent, and this has led to rents rising even faster than house prices. This puts the poor, especially single parents, in a difficult position. Even without the recent rise in rents, finding a suitable house close to their place of work and with the necessary social services, such as a good school and shops in the vicinity, was a nightmare for most people, leading to a spike in homelessness.
The housing situation has become so critical in California that it has led to a number of large firms moving their bases to another state, where their employees can find affordable housing. One recent example is the electric car manufacturer Tesla, which is moving its headquarters to Texas.
If the situation is so challenging for tech workers, who are among the best paid in the world, it is difficult to imagine the situation for those in poorly paid jobs like in retail or the informal sector.
The housing crisis brings with it a number of challenges. The world has seen unprecedented low interest rates that have led to a sharp rise in mortgages being taken out by people seeking to own their own homes. But as interest rates begin to rise, which they will do by next year at the latest, one can imagine a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, which also began when the housing bubble burst. That crisis also hit the poorest sections of society the hardest, while investors and speculators managed to get out of it with barely any damage.
The situation has turned so serious across the world that it is threatening the futures of hundreds of millions of young people.
We are now only eight years away from the deadline that all governments of the world set for themselves to provide housing for all as part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. But the world remains perhaps further away from achieving this goal than it has ever been.
It is time for governments to take the matter into their own hands and change some rules. First, they need to rapidly increase housing supply, both by building more homes themselves and incentivizing private builders. This would also mean changing zoning and housing rules to facilitate construction, which is currently heavily constrained. Another measure to be taken by governments is to keep a check on rents to ensure that any rises are linked to inflation rather than the greed of landlords, which are often immensely profitable financial services companies like banks and insurance firms.
*Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group.