English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable of the Unmerciful Servant: You wicked servant,’ he said, ‘I canceled all that debt of yours because you begged me to. Shouldn’t you have had mercy on your fellow servant just as I had on you
Matthew 18/23-35/ Then Peter came to Jesus and asked, “Lord, how many times shall I forgive my brother or sister who sins against me? Up to seven times?”Jesus answered, “I tell you, not seven times, but seventy-seven times. “Therefore, the kingdom of heaven is like a king who wanted to settle accounts with his servants. As he began the settlement, a man who owed him ten thousand bags of gold[h] was brought to him. Since he was not able to pay, the master ordered that he and his wife and his children and all that he had be sold to repay the debt. “At this the servant fell on his knees before him. ‘Be patient with me,’ he begged, ‘and I will pay back everything.’ The servant’s master took pity on him, canceled the debt and let him go.“But when that servant went out, he found one of his fellow servants who owed him a hundred silver coins. He grabbed him and began to choke him. ‘Pay back what you owe me!’ he demanded.“His fellow servant fell to his knees and begged him, ‘Be patient with me, and I will pay it back.’“But he refused. Instead, he went off and had the man thrown into prison until he could pay the debt. When the other servants saw what had happened, they were outraged and went and told their master everything that had happened. “Then the master called the servant in. ‘You wicked servant,’ he said, ‘I canceled all that debt of yours because you begged me to. Shouldn’t you have had mercy on your fellow servant just as I had on you?’ In anger his master handed him over to the jailers to be tortured, until he should pay back all he owed. “This is how my heavenly Father will treat each of you unless you forgive your brother or sister from your heart.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 01-02/2022
Arab League assures Lebanon of full support in hour of crisis
Lebanon seizes captagon pills inside construction material
Battling Cholera, Lebanon Gets First Vaccines, and Sharp Words, from France
Mikati rejects 11th-hour offer by Aoun for reinstating his cabinet
Mikati, two pro-Aoun ministers attend Arab summit in Algeria
Bukhari urges 'sovereign president' who can 'regain KSA confidence'
French ambassador urges MPs to elect president without delay
EU urges Lebanon to agree with IMF, implement reforms
Crisis-hit Lebanon faces power vacuum without president
Report: Hezbollah mad at Bassil for disclosing talks with Nasrallah
27 MPs reject 'sectarian' incitement over caretaker govt. powers
Russia donates wheat and fuel oil to Lebanon
Toxic Aoun era merely a symptom of Lebanon’s terminal disease/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November 01, 2022
Last nail in the coffin of Hezbollah’s pretexts for existence/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 01, 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 01-02/2022
Netanyahu poised for comeback in Israel election, exit polls show
Netanyahu ahead, nears majority, according to initial vote projections
Israelis Vote again, as Political Crisis Grinds On
Russia and Iran Start Oil-Product Swap as Ties Deepen Under Sanctions
US concerned about threats from Iran against Saudi Arabia
Iran protests rage on in defiance of crackdown
Iran's currency hits new low against the dollar amid unrest
US Iran envoy says he is focused on ‘where we can be useful’ and not going to ‘waste our time’ on nuclear deal right now
Canada Imposes Fresh Iran Sanctions over Human Rights Violations
Russia Announces Wider Evacuation of Occupied Southern Ukraine
Top Biden Envoy Pushes Back on Criticism of Iran Strategy
Russia begins drafting 120,000 more soldiers; Iran reportedly to supply Russia with missiles: Live updates
Putin confirms Russia’s readiness to strengthen ties with Arab League
Algeria readies for Arab League summit on divisive topics

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 01-02/2022
Russian journalists defy Putin to report on casualties in Ukraine/Markus Ziener/ Los Angeles Times/November 01, 2022
Biden has it backwards on Iran, Saudi Arabia/John Bolton/The Hill/November 01/2022
Biden must act on Iran’s drone and missile transfers/Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker/The Hill/November 01/2022
Turkey: 243 Sleepless Nights for Erdoğan/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2022
How Long-standing Iranian Disinformation Tactics Target Protests/Allan Hassaniyan/The Washington Institute/November 01/2022
The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic/Aaron Y. Zelin/The Washington Institute/November 01/2022
Houthis’ organic links with IRGC and Hezbollah revealed/Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 01, 2022
UK’s Conservative Party no longer a bastion of white privilege/Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/November 01, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 01-02/2022
Arab League assures Lebanon of full support in hour of crisis
Najia Houssari/Arab News/November 01, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon officially entered into a presidential vacuum on Tuesday. The Lebanese flag was lowered to half mast at the Baabda Presidential Palace and a memorandum was issued to take down the photo of former President Michel Aoun from offices and halls in official departments, following the protocols adopted at the end of the presidential term. Arab and international officials reiterated their calls to elect Aoun’s successor as soon as possible to prevent a prolonged power vacuum. The EU recalled sanctions that may be taken against individuals or entities that would prevent Lebanon from emerging from its crisis.
“The Arab League stands by the Lebanese government,” Secretary-General of the Arab League Ahmed Aboul Gheit said after meeting Lebanese caretaker Premier Najib Mikati in Algeria ahead of the 31st Arab Summit. Aboul Gheit further stressed the importance of doing everything necessary to hold the Lebanese presidential elections on time. Mikati met Sheikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa, special representative of the king of Bahrain, in the presence of Bahraini Foreign Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al-Zayani and Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib.
“Lebanon seeks the best relations with the Arab brothers,” Mikati said, calling on the Arabs to “understand the Lebanese situation and support Lebanon.”
The EU’s high representative, Josep Borrell, said in a statement: “After four inconclusive rounds of parliamentary votes, no candidate was elected and the presidency of Lebanon is now vacant. Since the last general elections in May, no government was formed. Such a political vacuum is occurring while Lebanon is facing a deteriorating socioeconomic situation. Institutional volatility compounded with economic instability would pose serious risks for Lebanon and its people. “The EU once again calls on the Lebanese leadership to organize presidential elections and form a government with the utmost urgency. In July 2022, the EU renewed a sanctions framework that allows imposing restrictive measures on individuals or entities blocking an exit from the Lebanese crisis. To facilitate the disbursement of the additional international funding and reverse the deteriorating trend of the Lebanese economy, a disbursing agreement with the International Monetary Fund must be reached, and key, long overdue reforms must be undertaken without any further delay.”
The EU stressed its commitment to continue to assist Lebanon and its people to move forward toward the recovery and stability they deserve, provided that Lebanese leaders assume their responsibilities and take the necessary measures. The French Embassy in Lebanon retweeted a post by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs saying: “The serious and unprecedented crisis in Lebanon requires the proper and full functioning of all its institutions. In this context, France calls on the Lebanese deputies to elect, without delay, a new president.”The Russian Embassy in Lebanon hoped that “the friendly people of Lebanon will succeed in overcoming the current difficult stage, which can only be achieved within the framework of a joint constructive action, in which everyone’s opinion is taken into account and without external interference.”Speaking from Algeria, Mikati reiterated: “The caretaker government should run the country normally without provocation, provided that the priority remains to elect a new president and form a new government, and that cooperation and harmony exist between them. “In the event of any emergency, I will consult the ministers before making any decision regarding holding a Cabinet session. If the quorum is secured, the session will be held and decisions are taken by a two-thirds majority. I hope that everyone will cooperate so we can overcome this difficult stage.”Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Al-Bukhari said that Saudi-Lebanese relations will improve further once a new government is formed and a sovereign president is elected to restore the confidence of Saudi Arabia and the countries concerned with the Lebanese issue. The UN’s special coordinator in Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, announced that she met with Hezbollah’s Arab and international relations officer, Ammar Al-Moussawi, and discussed ways to quickly end the presidential vacuum and form a new government. Top officials participated in a program on Tuesday, officially closing the presidential pavilion at the Baabda Palace as Aoun’s term ended without a replacement, lowering the Lebanese flag to half mast, and shutting off the water fountain.

Lebanon seizes captagon pills inside construction material
AFP/November 01, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanese security forces seized over five million captagon pills hidden inside construction material, the interior minister said Tuesday, in the latest bust of the amphetamine-type stimulant. Officers seized “a large quantity of captagon” during a raid on a warehouse in the southern Lebanese city of Ghazieh, Bassam Mawlawi said in a statement. The illegal shipment of pills was labelled as heading to Sudan via Ivory Coast, but it is unclear if that was the true destination. In January, authorities seized a large quantity of captagon hidden inside a tea shipment, bound for Saudi Arabia via Togo. Lebanese authorities have ramped up efforts to counter captagon production and trafficking after backlash from Gulf nations, where most shipments are headed. Most of global captagon production originates in Syria, spurring a multi-billion-dollar industry that has made the drug the country’s largest export by far.
Captagon was long labelled “the jihadist drug” and closely associated with the Daesh group and its atrocities. Captagon traffickers have in recent years found ever more imaginative places in which to conceal their drug, from fake oranges, to real hollowed-out pomegranates and pitted olives.

Battling Cholera, Lebanon Gets First Vaccines, and Sharp Words, from France
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 01/2022
Lebanon on Monday received a first batch of vaccines to combat a worsening cholera outbreak - together with sharply worded criticism of its crumbling public health infrastructure from France, which facilitated the donation of the doses. By Sunday, cases of cholera - a disease typically spread through contaminated water, food or sewage - stood at 1,447, with 17 deaths, since the first were recorded in the country a month ago, Lebanon's health ministry said. Lebanon had been cholera-free since 1993, but its public services are suffering under a brutal economic crisis now in its fourth year, while infighting among the country's faction-riven elite has paralyzed its political institutions. he outbreak has reached Beirut, but authorities say most cases remain concentrated where it started in the northern town of Bebnine, where health authorities have set up an emergency field hospital. he vaccines would play "an essential role" in limiting the disease's spread, Health Minister Firass Abiad told reporters in the capital as he announced the first batch. tanding next to Abiad, French ambassador Anne Grillo said the delivery comprised more than 13,000 doses. They had been donated by the philanthropic arm of French healthcare company Sanofi and the French government had facilitated their arrival to Lebanon. The origins of this epidemic, in which public health is at stake, must also be treated," Grillo told reporters. The outbreak was "a new and worrying illustration of the critical decline in public provision of access to water and sanitary services in Lebanon."In the Bebnine field hospital, two young boys sat next to each other on one hospital bed, while a mother waited anxiously to confirm if her son, lying limp on another bed and being treated by a doctor and a nurse, had also caught the disease. earby, Syrian children in a makeshift refugee camp played in dirty water chocked with rubbish and medical waste and fed by an outflow from an open pipe. he World Health Organization has linked cholera's comeback in Lebanon to an outbreak in neighboring Syria, to where it had spread from Afghanistan via Iran and Iraq.

Mikati rejects 11th-hour offer by Aoun for reinstating his cabinet
Naharnet/November 01/2022 
Caretaker PM and PM-designate Najib Mikati has rejected an eleventh-hour offer by outgoing President Michel Aoun for reinstating his caretaker cabinet without changing any of its ministers, TV networks said. “Presidency Secretary-General Antoine Choucair visited PM Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail on Monday morning, prior to the latter’s departure to Algeria for representing Lebanon at the Arab Summit,” al-Jadeed TV said. “Choucair proposed to Mikati issuing (formation) decrees for the same (caretaker) cabinet so that it overcomes the constitutional obstacles, which prompted Mikati to ask Choucair about confidence in the government and whether Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil had decided to grant it,” the TV network added. “Choucair said that it is up to parliament to decide, without giving Mikati a decisive answer on whether the FPM’s MPs would grant the government their confidence. Mikati then informed Choucair that the plane was waiting for him to take him to Algeria, thanking the visitor for his rejected offer,” al-Jadeed said. Aoun’s six-year term expired at midnight and parliament has failed four times to elect a successor. Aoun and the FPM have argued that the caretaker cabinet is not eligible to assume the president’s powers in the event of a presidential vacuum.

Mikati, two pro-Aoun ministers attend Arab summit in Algeria
Naharnet/November 01/2022 
Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati will attend today, Tuesday, the 31st Arab League summit in Algeria, as the region battles to find common ground over a series of divisive issues. Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib and caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad -- both from former President Michel Aoun and the Free Patriotic Movement's camp -- accompanied Mikati to Algeria. Bou Habib will attend the summit in a Lebanese delegation that also includes head of the Arab affairs department in the Foreign Ministry Ali al-Mawla, Lebanese Ambassador to Algeria Mohammed Hassan and Mikati's diplomatic advisor Boutros Asaker. As for Fayyad, the minister will hold talks with Algerian senior officials over energy cooperation between the two countries. Mikati met in Algeria with Arab League chief Ahmed Abul Gheit, who expressed the Arab League's support for Lebanon. "A prolonged presidential vacuum can have negative repercussions on Lebanon, amid the country's current challenges" Abul Gheit said, as he urged the Lebanese government for reforms and for a consensus that would break the presidential deadlock.

Bukhari urges 'sovereign president' who can 'regain KSA confidence'
Naharnet/November 01/2022
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari on Tuesday called for the election of a “sovereign” president in Lebanon. “The Saudi-Lebanese relations would improve after the formation of a new government and the election of a sovereign president who would regain the confidence of Saudi Arabia and the countries concerned with the Lebanese file,” Bukhari said during a visit to the Bekaa.

French ambassador urges MPs to elect president without delay
Naharnett/November 01/2022  
French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo has called on Lebanon’s lawmakers to “elect a new president without delay,” after the country was plunged into presidential vacuum with the end of President Michel Aoun’s term. “Lebanon is going through a dangerous and unprecedented economic, financial and social crisis, which requires the proper functioning of all its institutions, from the presidency to the government to parliament, in order to take the necessary measures for the country’s revival and for improving the situations of the Lebanese in an urgent manner,” Grillo tweeted.
“France calls on all Lebanese actors to shoulder their responsibilities for the sake of Lebanon and the Lebanese people,” the ambassador added.

EU urges Lebanon to agree with IMF, implement reforms
Naharnet/November 01/2022  
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell on Tuesday warned that political vacuum is occurring in Lebanon while the country is "facing a deteriorating socioeconomic situation.""Institutional volatility compounded with economic instability would pose serious risks for Lebanon and its people,” Borrell said in a statement. He added that the EU once again calls on the Lebanese leadership to “organize presidential elections and form a government with the utmost urgency.”Borrell reminded that in July 2022, the EU renewed a sanctions framework that allows to “impose restrictive measures on individuals or entities blocking an exit to the Lebanese crisis.” “In order to facilitate the disbursement of the additional international funding and reverse the deteriorating trend of the Lebanese economy, a disbursing agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) must be reached; and key, long overdue reforms must be undertaken without any further delay,” the top EU diplomat urged. “The EU remains committed to continue assisting Lebanon and its people to move towards the recovery and stability they deserve. At the same time, the EU urges the Lebanese leadership to face its responsibilities and take action,” Borrell went on to say.

Crisis-hit Lebanon faces power vacuum without president
Naharnet/November 01/2022   
Already mired in political and economic crises, Lebanon is now also without a president after Michel Aoun's mandate expired without a successor. Aoun's six-year term, that came to a close on Sunday, was marred by mass protests, a painful economic downturn and the August 2020 mega-explosion of ammonium nitrate that killed hundreds and laid waste to swathes of the capital Beirut. Today, headed by a caretaker government, Lebanon is unable to enact the reforms needed to access billions of dollars from international lenders to help save an economy in free-fall since late 2019. In Lebanon, power is divided among the country's main sects -- none of whom hold a clear majority.
Why is there no president?
Aoun left the presidential palace Sunday, a day before the end of his term, cheered on by a few thousand supporters.In Lebanon, lawmakers vote in parliament for president. Parliament has held four rounds of voting since last month, with no candidate garnering enough support to succeed Aoun.
Some lawmakers accuse Hezbollah and its allies of obstructing the vote to negotiate with other blocs.They adopted a similar tactic in the last election by boycotting the vote in parliament -- a move that left Lebanon without a president for more than two years, until Aoun's 2016 win.
Without a dominant party in parliament, decisions like electing a president, naming a prime minister or forming a government can take months or even years of political horse-trading, sometimes even leading to violence.
Who rules the country?
The president's powers fall to the Council of Ministers if he leaves office without a successor. Aoun signed on Sunday a decree formalizing the resignation of premier Najib Mikati's government, in a caretaker role since legislative elections in May. The move exacerbates a months-long power struggle that has paralyzed the government. Mikati retorted that his government will continue his work in caretaker capacity as usual, but that cabinet will only meet "for urgent matters". Experts said it was part of ongoing political arm-wrestling between Aoun and the premier. A cabinet in a caretaker role cannot take important decisions that might impact the country's fate. "This greatly affects the government's work, because it cannot issue decrees or take any decisions that require collective consensus," a source close to Mikati said. This includes decisions needed to kickstart offshore gas exploration and extraction, after Lebanon demarcated its sea border with Israel last week.
What happens next?
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri might invite political parties for a national dialogue, so they can agree on a new president, a lawmaker close to him said on the condition of anonymity. "No party can impose a candidate," he said. "Therefore the only solution is to reach a consensus, otherwise the presidential vacancy is likely to last." But such initiatives have failed in the past. So far, lawmaker Michel Mouawad, 50, has garnered the most support in parliament, mostly from those opposed to Hezbollah. But without Hezbollah's support, Mouawad's chances of becoming president are slim. Hezbollah has not officially endorsed a candidate, but Suleiman Franjieh, 57, a personal friend of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was always considered one of the group's preferred choices. But Hezbollah's Christian ally, Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), will not back Franjieh. Jebran Bassil, 52, the FPM's leader and Aoun's son-in-law, is also vying for the presidency. Others have also floated army chief Joseph Aoun, 58, as a potential candidate for the presidency, in a country where army commanders have snatched this post several times.

Report: Hezbollah mad at Bassil for disclosing talks with Nasrallah
Naharnet/November 01/2022   
Hezbollah is deeply dismayed by the bragging of Free Patriotic Movement Jebran Bassil about refusing to bow to Hezbollah's pressure regarding the presidential election, reports said. Bassil had met Wednesday with Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who reportedly asked him to support al-Marada leader Suleiman Franjiyeh for presidency, but media reports revealed that the latter refused. "Bassil bragged to the FPM political bureau about refusing to endorse the nomination of Franjieh," ad-Diyar quoted "credible" sources as saying. "And by doing so, Bassil has obstructed any dialogue regarding Franjieh's chances, burning bridges as to any presidential settlement" the sources said, wondering why he revealed the content of his bilateral meeting with Nasrallah. The sources slammed Bassil for dubbing the dialogue as "pressure", sarcastically considering his bragging about refusing Nasrallah's demand as a "bravado".

27 MPs reject 'sectarian' incitement over caretaker govt. powers
Naharnet/November 01/2022 
Twenty-seven MPs met overnight at the headquarters of the Kataeb Party in Saifi to discuss the stalled presidential election and Speaker Nabih Berri’s call for a session aimed at discussing the letter of ex-president Michel Aoun. “The conferees express their categorical rejection of the attempts at igniting sectarian polarization through fabricating a debate over the issue of the government’s powers during the presidential vacuum period, because this issue is settled in the Lebanese constitution,” the 27 MPs said in a joint statement. They added that the “priority” stipulated by the constitution is “the immediate election of a president.” “Accordingly, the conferees stress that parliament must convene as soon as possible to elect a president, because only this can restore the regularity of the work of institutions, and they call on the parliament speaker to intensify sessions in order to elect a president as soon as possible,” they said.
The statement was signed by the following MPs: Sami Gemayel, Salim al-Sayegh, Elias Hankash, Nadim Gemayel, Rami Fanj, Mark Daou, Najat Saliba, Waddah al-Sadek, Adib Abdel Massih, Ihab Matar, Walid al-Baarini, Ashraf Rifi, Mohammed Suleiman, Neemat Frem, Abdul Aziz al-Samad, Sajih Atiyeh, Ahmed al-Kheir, Nabil Bader, Michel Daher, Fouad Makhzoumi, Imad al-Hout, Bilal al-Hoshaimi, Ghassan Skaff, Jean Talouzian, Jamil Abboud, Ahmed Rustom and Michel Mouawad.

Russia donates wheat and fuel oil to Lebanon
Naharnet/November 01/2022 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has officially authorized a wheat and fuel grant to crisis-hit Lebanon, media reports said. The grant consists of 25,000 tons of wheat and ten tons of fuel oil. Caretaker Public Works and Transport Minister Ali Hamieh was informed of the approval overnight and the delivery date will be revealed within the next two days, the reports added.

أسامة الشريف/عرب نيوز: حقبة رئاسة عون السامة هي مجرد عارض من أعراض مرض لبنان العضال
Toxic Aoun era merely a symptom of Lebanon’s terminal disease
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/November 01, 2022
Michel Aoun this week left Lebanon’s presidential palace a day before his six-year term was due to end, but not before detonating a mine that will further suck the troubled country into a constitutional black hole. He signed a decree accepting the resignation of the government and demanded Najib Mikati be removed as prime minister-designate, thus deepening the legal vacuum the country finds itself in. By doing so, he has left Lebanon without a president and without a functioning government — at least in the eyes of his supporters.
Caretaker premier Mikati has been trying to form a government for the last six months without success. Likewise, parliament has been trying to elect a new president for more than a month, also without success. Mikati has rejected Aoun’s last decree, saying that the outgoing president had no authority to sack him. Aoun’s years in office have not been the most auspicious, to say the least. He leaves behind a fractured, bankrupt and deeply divided country that now finds itself entangled in a web of unclear and inconclusive legal wrangles.
Much can be said about Aoun, 89, the former general who switched allegiances during the civil war and spent years in exile. His political ambition to be president took a convoluted course that finally ended with him forming an unholy bond with an unexpected ally: Hezbollah. As head of the Christian-dominated Free Patriotic Movement, Aoun was able to stall the election of a president for two years, between 2014 and 2016. He finally got his way in 2016 and, for his apologists, his term was an unlucky one, marred by a financial meltdown that they blame on endemic mismanagement and corruption, public protests in 2019 that triggered a series of government collapses, the COVID-19 pandemic and a horrific explosion at Beirut port in 2020 that caused the deaths of more than 200 people and injured 7,000, in addition to billions of dollars of damage.
Critics say his reign has been a hellish one of his own making. Aoun and Hezbollah deliberately foiled the formation of a number of governments, the holding of elections and now the naming of a president in a bid to serve each others’ interests. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, wants to enjoy a veto power in any government while Aoun wants to secure his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, as next in line for the presidency. Opponents, both Sunnis and Christians, reject that.
Aoun’s alliance with Hezbollah has led to Lebanon’s regional and international isolation. The country has found itself embroiled in a proxy war involving Iran, Syria, the US and Israel. Long-time supporters of Lebanon, such as Saudi Arabia and other Arab Gulf countries, in addition to France, could do little to distance it from the regional power struggle.
Aoun may have left the presidential palace, but not before deepening his country’s constitutional crisis and the political vacuum it now finds itself in. His last decree will divide the bankrupt country even further. Under the constitution, in the case of a presidential vacuum, the president’s authorities revert automatically to the government. But Aoun sacked the government, which was not within his powers, and as a result cast a dark shadow over what happens next.
One of the problems with Lebanon, and there are many, is that almost all other political players in the sectarian-dominated political scene carry as much blame as Aoun and his allies for the way things have turned out. Lebanon’s descent into the abyss took decades to happen. The former warlords of the civil war became the ruling elite and, in a bid to maintain the sectarian structure of the state, they took part in the systemic plundering of the country’s resources. At the end of the day, all ordinary Lebanese, regardless of sect, ended up losing out.
Lebanon is a failed country, but more importantly it is also an occupied country that is the victim of a regional power struggle. This has been its sad reality since before the civil war of the 1970s.
Lebanon is a failed country, but more importantly it is also an occupied country that is the victim of a regional power struggle.
Electing a president and forming a government will not end Lebanon’s ordeal — although it does not seem that either will happen anytime soon. The future of Lebanon is but a minor issue in the larger, multifaceted US-Iran-Israel struggle that extends all the way to Iraq and Yemen.
Aoun’s ignominious time in power is but a symptom of the terminal disease that has been eating at the heart of Lebanon’s institutions for many years. A major part of the disease is Hezbollah’s hegemony and, by extension, that of Iran, but that is not all. The sectarian power-sharing formula is no longer viable and the country needs a new social contract that secures its territorial integrity and sovereignty while replacing sub-identities — what the Lebanese-born French thinker Amin Maalouf called “deadly identities” — with a unified national one.
**Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010

Last nail in the coffin of Hezbollah’s pretexts for existence
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/November 01, 2022
بارعة علم الدين/عرب نيوز: المسمار الأخير في نعش ذرائع حزب الله الوجودية
مقابلة لبارعة علم الدين تناول اتفاق ترسيم الحدود البحرية بين لبنان وإسرائيل، ونهاية عهد عون الذي باع لبنان لحزب الشيطان
لو كان بالإمكان تحويل كره اللبنانيين لجبران باسيل إلى طاقة لكانت انارت لبنان كله وانهت أزمة الكهرباء
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113111/113111/
Last week’s agreement establishing the maritime border between Lebanon and Israel was the fruit of 11 years of tortuous diplomacy, but never has a deal been greeted with such bashfulness by both sides. A signing ceremony on the White House lawn? Far from it — these two signatories, sworn enemies who are technically at war with each other, could not even bear to be in the same country. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the agreement would generate “critically needed foreign investment for the Lebanese people as they face a devastating economic crisis.” However, not a drop of gas has so far been discovered in the exclusively Lebanese Qana offshore field. Even if hydrocarbons are found in meaningful quantities, extraction will take years — and we only have to look at Iraq, Venezuela and Libya to realize that such wealth can be as much a curse as a blessing. There are also concerns that oil and gas legislation may have been designed to enable corrupt politicians to make vast fortunes, while preventing the revenues from reaching Lebanese citizens.
Welcoming the border agreement, Tehran’s propagandist-in-chief Hassan Nasrallah rambled on about the “strength of the resistance,” and fantasized about how Hezbollah and its rag-tag alliance of Iran-financed militias had somehow terrorized Israel into making compromises.
Even if there were a shred of truth in this nonsense, is this how Nasrallah advocates that diplomacy should be conducted in future? Perhaps threatening to bomb the World Bank might produce the loan offers that have so inconveniently eluded Lebanon thus far; or attacking European shipping could muster greater international assistance for the country in its hour of need.
Nasrallah understands only the language of force. It’s easy to threaten drone attacks on a neighbor’s oil infrastructure as a means to achieve short-term demands, but even the average five-year-old knows that such tactics are the fastest route to pariah statehood.
We have been treated to a masterclass in schizophrenic doublespeak from Hezbollah: Nasrallah invited his supporters to view the deal with “a patriotic spirit,” but hard-liners have reacted with anger and confusion to this “betrayal”: Aren’t we at war with Israel and committed to Israel’s destruction? Shouldn’t we be arguing that the entire Palestinian coast is Arab territory? What happened to “next year we’ll be in Jerusalem?”
In fact, as a senior Israeli official pointed out: “The deal weakens Hezbollah and weakens Iran’s grip on Lebanon. Hezbollah would rather the deal didn’t exist, but once it was on the table and the Lebanese public realized a deal was within reach, it became impossible for Hezbollah to justify preventing it.”
With the maritime border deal, Hezbollah and its “resistance” are rapidly running out of reasons to exist.
Some analysts have argued that with the prospects of a revived Iran nuclear deal disappearing over the horizon, Israel saw the maritime border agreement as a means of reducing the likelihood of a conflagration on its northern borders. But Hezbollah remains the plaything of Iran, and if Tehran choses the path of confrontation, or if Israel launches preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, nothing will keep Lebanon out of the resultant bloodletting. Nasrallah ignores the reality that in any such conflict the US and its allies would not idly sit by. One former UK minister told me that “of course” Britain and other states would intervene in support of Israel.
This maritime border agreement coincided with Michel Aoun’s departure from Lebanon’s presidential palace. Many of his allies hailed the deal as the “crowning achievement” of his six years in office. In reality, his presidency has been an unrelenting disaster, with the pinnacle of his achievements being Lebanon’s total economic and political collapse. The smattering of supporters bused in to camp outside his palace and bid the departing president farewell was a cheap gimmick that served only as a reminder of how little support Aoun enjoys.
His son-in-law Gebran Bassil still fantasizes that he can be president, but even Hezbollah no longer enthusiastically backs his candidacy. The best he can look forward to is his forthcoming electoral wipe-out, having sold his own soul and that of his Christian faction to “Hizb Al-Shaitan.” If ever an inventor discovered a way to convert hatred into electricity, the Lebanese people’s overwhelming loathing of Bassil could end the country's power shortages at a stroke.
In fact, with the maritime border deal, Hezbollah and its “resistance” are rapidly running out of reasons to exist. Now that Nasrallah has conquered the seas, the single remaining fig-leaf justifying Hezbollah’s retention of its weapons is the cause celebre of the Shebaa Farms border area, which is universally acknowledged to be Syrian territory — as if there existed a legitimate, sovereign Syrian government that could claim it.
Meanwhile Lebanon still needs a long-term path to prosperity. The prospect of exploiting hydrocarbon reserves in the Mediterranean is one step on that path, but more will be required. A second gamechanger would be fulfilment of UN mandates for the complete removal of armed entities from Lebanon’s political arena, in a manner that would allow international donors to turn the financial taps back on so that billions of dollars of funding and investment can be restored. A third priority must be radical action to address rampant corruption, before Lebanon’s elite of robber barons and warlords can drain the coffers dry of incoming gas wealth.Lebanon has two possible futures: One is conflict and disintegration, the other is prosperity and rebirth. Nasrallah calls for “patriotic spirit”— if only Hezbollah possessed sufficient patriotism to allow Lebanese citizens to grasp their own future for themselves.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 01-02/2022
Netanyahu poised for comeback in Israel election, exit polls show
Reuters/November 02/2022
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared well placed to return to power after exit polls following Tuesday’s election showed his right-wing bloc heading for a narrow majority lifted by a strong showing from his far-right allies. Israel’s longest-serving premier, on trial over corruption charges which he denies, was poised to take 61-62 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, according to Israeli television exit polls. The early exit polls may differ from the final result of the election, which is not expected until later in the week but the results pointed to a stronger-than-expected showing by the right. Israel’s fifth election in less than four years exasperated many Israeli voters. The campaign was shaken up by right-wing firebrand Itamar Ben-Gvir and his ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism bloc, now poised to be the third-largest party with 15 seats in parliament. Security on the streets and surging prices topped the list of voter concerns in a campaign triggered by defections from Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s unlikely ruling coalition of right-wing, liberal and Arab parties. But policy issues have been overshadowed by the outsized personality of Netanyahu, whose legal battles have fed the stalemate blocking Israel’s political system since he was indicted on bribery, fraud and breach of trust charges in 2019. Netanyahu, 73, has been counting on support from Ben-Gvir and fellow far-right leader Bezalel Smotrich. The prospect of Ben-Gvir, a former member of Kach, a group on Israeli and US terrorist watchlists, joining a coalition risks alarming allies including Washington. The campaign, which opened weeks after a brief conflict with the militant Islamic Jihad group in Gaza in August, has also unrolled against a backdrop of increasing violence in the occupied West Bank, with near-daily raids and clashes.

Netanyahu ahead, nears majority, according to initial vote projections
Agence France Presse/November 01, 2022
Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu was within reach of a governing majority and of making a political comeback, initial projections showed after Tuesday's election, but the tally could shift as official results come in. The margins appeared razor thin, as expected in the bitterly divided nation holding its fifth election in less than four years, but the early signs were positive for the veteran right-wing leader. Projections from three Israeli networks put Netanyahu's Likud on track for a first place finish, within 30 or 31 seats in the 120-member parliament, the Knesset. That number, combined with projected tallies for the extreme-right Religious Zionism alliance and the two ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties gave the bloc backing Netanyahu between 61 or 62 seats, the first projections showed. But those can change, and previous Israeli elections have shown that slight variations as the votes are officially counted can dramatically alter the outlook. Caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid's centrist Yesh Atid was on track for its expected second place finish, with projections giving it between 22 and 24 seats. But the anti-Netanyahu bloc as a whole was short of a win, according to the early forecasts from networks.

Israelis Vote again, as Political Crisis Grinds On
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 01/2022
Israelis began voting Tuesday in their fifth election in less than four years, with ex-premier Benjamin Netanyahu campaigning for a comeback alongside far-right allies. The latest ballot follows the collapse of the so-called "change" coalition, which united eight disparate parties who succeeded in ousting Netanyahu last year after a record run as prime minister, but ultimately failed to bring political stability, AFP said. Israelis have until 2000 GMT to cast their ballot, after which complex bargaining to build a coalition will get underway. Caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid is seeking to hold onto power, with his centrist Yesh Atid party lagging slightly behind Netanyahu's right-wing Likud in the polls. Lapid, a former TV anchor, on Monday vowed to "continue what we've begun" and predicted: "We'll win these elections the only way we know -- by working harder than everyone else." But in a political system where a shift in just one of the 120 Knesset seats up for grabs could cement a ruling coalition -- or lead to further deadlock and possible new elections -- the outcome remains uncertain once more. Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption and breach of trust, has addressed party faithful from a bulletproof campaign bus, seeking to convince them that only he can keep the country safe. "I ask you to go to all of your friends, all of your neighbors, all of your relatives, and tell them that nobody stays home," the 73-year-old known as Bibi urged supporters at a recent rally.
Tight race
Whoever is tapped to form a government will need the backing of multiple smaller parties to stand a chance of clinching the 61 seats necessary for a majority. The extreme-right leader Itamar Ben-Gvir may be key to helping Netanyahu return to the premiership, as his Religious Zionism bloc has gained momentum in recent weeks and could come third in the election. en-Gvir, who has faced dozens of charges of hate speech against Arabs, argues he is "here to save the country". uesday's vote will be held against a backdrop of soaring violence across Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem and the occupied West Bank. t least 29 Palestinians and three Israelis were killed across the two territories in October, according to an AFP tally. The Israeli military said it would shut checkpoints leading to the West Bank and close the crossing with the blockaded Gaza Strip throughout election day. hile many candidates have cited security as a concern, none have campaigned on a platform of reviving moribund peace talks with the Palestinians.
Divisions and despondency
The cost of living has been a hot issue this election as Israelis, having long endured high prices, are feeling the pinch even more amid global economic turmoil linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. ut in repeated rounds of elections since April 2019, few voters have significantly shifted their allegiances. he pacts agreed and broken by their political leaders have, however, changed over time and shaped short-lived governments. apid was the architect of the last coalition, which for the first time brought an independent Arab party into the fold and included others from the right and left. hat unlikely alliance was made possible after Mansour Abbas pulled his Raam party from a united slate with other Arab-led parties, paving the way for him to join the coalition. ecent months have seen further divisions within the Arab bloc, which is running on three separate lists in a move expected to weaken the minority's representation in parliament.
Such a scenario has led to despondency among many Arab-Israelis -- who make up around 20 percent of the population -- potentially denting their turnout. We need to work harder, first of all, to convince people to go out and vote," Aida Touma-Suleiman, from the Hadash-Taal alliance, told AFP. It's one frustration on top of another."

Russia and Iran Start Oil-Product Swap as Ties Deepen Under Sanctions
Patrick Sykes/Bloomberg/November 01/2022
Russia started swapping oil products with Iran, Interfax reported, the latest sign of deepening ties between the two sanctioned countries pushed closer by Russia’s war in Ukraine. he range of swapped products will be expanded, Interfax cited Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak as saying, without giving further details, after a meeting with Iranian Oil Minister Javad Owji in Grozny. he talks also covered potential Russian participation to increase Iranian oil production, the development of ports in the Mediterranean and Caspian Seas and an international north-south freight corridor connecting Russia to India via Iran, according to reports by Interfax and Tass. Increasingly isolated by US sanctions, Moscow and Tehran have sought to deepen their economic and military partnership significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. The Islamic Republic also faces more sanctions over its reported role in providing armaments to Russia for the conflict.Iran is also seeking a gas swap deal with Moscow, under which it would import Russian gas via an intermediary country to boost exports from the Islamic Republic, as well as investment in a stalled LNG project and pipeline to Pakistan. Gas swap issues “are still being worked out,” Novak said, without elaborating. Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC may sign deals on projects in Iran by the end of November, Novak added. Iran and Russia have signed $6.5 billion of oil and gas contracts as part of a memorandum of understanding that envisages up to $40 billion of deals, Iran’s semi-official Fars News cited Deputy Foreign Minister for Economic Affairs Mehdi Safari as saying on Monday. ussian-Iranian ties are “of a strategic nature,” Novak said. “We aim to make every effort to develop these relations.”
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

US concerned about threats from Iran against Saudi Arabia
Reuters/November 01, 2022
WASHINGTON D.C.: The US is concerned about threats from Iran against Saudi Arabia and will not hesitate to respond if necessary, a White House spokesperson said on Tuesday. “We are concerned about the threat picture, and we remain in constant contact through military and intelligence channels with the Saudis,” said the spokesperson from the National Security Council. “We will not hesitate to act in the defense of our interests and partners in the region.” The official spoke after the Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia has shared intelligence with the United States warning of an imminent attack from Iran on targets in the kingdom. The United States has said Iran has supplied Russia with drones for use in its war against Ukraine, prompting Washington to set aside efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal, which then-President Donald Trump abandoned in 2018.

Iran protests rage on in defiance of crackdown
AFP/November 01, 2022
PARIS: Iranians staged new protest actions to denounce the country’s theocratic regime in defiance of a crackdown that is now seeing those arrested put on trial and facing the death penalty. Iran has for the past six weeks been rocked by protests of a scale and nature unprecedented since the 1979 Islamic revolution, sparked by the death in September of Mahsa Amini who had been arrested by the Tehran morality police. The authorities have warned protesters it is time to leave the streets but the demonstrations have shown no sign of abating, taking place in residential areas, major avenues and universities nationwide. The challenge for the regime is compounded by the custom in Iran to mark 40 days since a person died, turning every “chehelom” 40-day mourning ceremony for the dozens killed in the crackdown into a potential protest flashpoint. Residents of the Tehran district of Ekbatan late Monday shouted protest movement slogans including “Death to the dictator” with security forces using stun grenades in a bid to stop the action, according to footage posted on the 1500tasvir monitoring site and other outlets. The Norway-based Hengaw rights organization said the funeral in the mainly Kurdish city of Sanandaj in northwestern Iran on Monday for Sarina Saedi, a 16-year-old girl it said was killed in the crackdown, turned into a protest with anti-regime slogans shouted and women removing headscarves. 1500tasvir also posted a widely shared video on social media showing medical students protesting in the northern city of Tabriz telling the authorities “You are the pervert!” in a message to the morality police. Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) group said that students were on Tuesday staging a sit-in protest at Isfahan University while social media footage indicated a similar action was in progress at the engineering faculty of Amir Kabir university in Tehran.Amini’s death was according to family members caused by a blow to the head while in custody. The Iranian authorities contest this explanation but have ordered an investigation. The protests were fueled by anger over the strict Islamic dress code for women in Iran — which the police who arrested Amini were enforcing — but have become a rallying point for popular anger against the regime that has ruled Iran since the fall of the shah in 1979.
While there have been outbursts of protests in Iran over the past two decades the current movement has regularly broken taboos.
Images shared on social media showed murals of revolutionary leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his predecessor Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini had been daubed with red paint in the holy city of Qom. The protests have also seen a myriad of different tactics, with observers noting a new trend of young people tipping off the turbans of clerics in the street. According to IHR, 160 people have been killed in the crackdown on the protests sparked by Amini’s death and another 93 in a distinct protest wave in Zahedan in the southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan province. IHR has warned that these figures are a minimum, with information slow to flow in due to disruptions of the Internet by the authorities. Hengaw said among those buried was Komar Daruftade, a 16-year-old from Piranshahr in northwestern Iran who it said had been shot by security forces at a distance of three meters (15 feet) and later died in hospital.
Thousands of people have been arrested nationwide in the crackdown on the protests, rights activists say, while Iran’s judiciary has said 1,000 people have already been charged in connection with what it describes as “riots.”The trial of five men charged with offenses that can carry capital punishment over the protests opened Saturday in Tehran. One of the men, Mohammad Ghobadlou, was sentenced to death at the first trial session, according to a video from his mother posted by the Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center. However this has not been confirmed by the judiciary. The popular Iranian rapper Toomaj Salehi has become the latest high profile figure to be arrested, according to the New York-based Center for Human Rights in Iran. At least 46 journalists have been arrested so far, according to the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists. Tehran journalist Marzieh Amiri is the latest to be detained, her sister Samira wrote on Instagram. Meanwhile the prominent freedom of expression campaigner and Wall Street Journal contributor Hossein Ronaghi, who was arrested shortly after the protests began, is on “hunger strike and not well,” his brother Hassan wrote on Twitter after the activist was granted a meeting with his parents. World powers have sought to tighten the pressure on Iran with Canada announcing Monday fresh sanctions, targeting Iranian police and judicial officials. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Monday that the European Union is considering further sanctions against Iran saying he was shocked “people who are peacefully demonstrating at protests in Iran are dying.”

Iran university students strike, piling pressure on rulers
DUBAI (Reuters/November 01/2022
Iranian university students pressed ahead with sit-down strikes on Tuesday in support of some of the biggest protests since the 1979 revolution, ignoring harsh warnings by elite security forces and a bloody crackdown.
The Islamic Republic has faced sustained anti-government demonstrations since Iranian-Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini died in the custody of the morality police seven weeks ago after she was arrested for wearing clothes deemed "inappropriate".
The activist HRANA news agency said the sit-down strikes were taking place in several cities including Tehran and Isfahan, part of a popular revolt calling for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. One of the boldest challenges to Iran's clerical leaders in decades, the protests have been gaining more and more steam, frustrating authorities who have tried to put the blame on Iran's foreign enemies and their agents for the unrest, a narrative that few Iranians believe. "People risk their lives to go to the streets but the hope that they are able to defeat the regime is much bigger than their fears," said Omid Memarian, senior Iran analyst at Democracy for the Arab World Now (DAWN). Asieh Bakeri, the daughter of a war hero from the country's conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, lashed out at Iran's rulers. "Yes, martyrs are looking over us but they are also watching over your theft of public treasury, embezzlement, discrimination, oppression, pouring of innocents' blood," she said, underscoring how discontent is spreading to families who have a special place in society. "You shoot at the people with war weapons [...] it's been years you have harassed journalists with accusations of spying." Protesters from all walks of life have taken part, with students and women playing a prominent role, waving and burning headscarves. Analysts doubt that the protests can bring down Iran's clerical rulers but they say the unrest is seen as a step that may eventually lead to dramatic political change.
"These protests are being seen as an opportunity to push for change ... this is a moment they hope to build upon," said Sanam Vakil, deputy director at the Royal Institute of International Affairs. At least four students from Bahonar Middle School in the city of Sanandaj were arrested by security forces, said HRANA. Iran's hardline judiciary will hold public trials of about 1,000 people indicted for unrest in Tehran, intensifying efforts to crush weeks of demonstrations.
(Reporting by Dubai newsroom: Writing by Michael Georgy, Editing by William Maclean)

Iran's currency hits new low against the dollar amid unrest
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/November 01/2022
Iran’s currency dropped to its lowest value against the dollar on Tuesday, after weeks of nationwide unrest roiling the country. A stalemate in negotiations to revive Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers has also weighed heavily on the rial. Traders in Tehran exchanged the rial at 338,000 to the dollar, up from 332,200 on Monday. Iran’s currency was trading at 32,000 rials to the dollar at the time of the 2015 nuclear accord that lifted international sanctions in exchange for tight curbs on Tehran's nuclear program. The rial’s new low comes amid protests first sparked by the Sept. 16 death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in the custody of the country's morality police. She was detained for allegedly violating the Islamic Republic's strict dress code for women. The demonstrations have swept the country, morphing into one of the boldest challenges to Iran's ruling clerics since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Security forces have sought to quash dissent, killing at least 270 people and arresting some 14,000, according to rights groups. Protesters have targeted Iran's state-mandated headscarf, or hijab, for women. But the sickly state of Iran's economy is also a main force driving Iranians into the streets. Soaring prices, high unemployment and corruption have fueled the unrest. The Iran nuclear deal has been teetering toward collapse since talks stalled months ago. After protests erupted, the United States and European Union imposed additional sanctions on Iran for its brutal treatment of demonstrators and its decision to send hundreds of drones to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine. The White House has faced growing pressure to scuttle the deal altogether. The U.S. special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, said on Monday that the administration “makes no apology” for its refusal to declare the deal dead. Iran's economy has deteriorated significantly since former President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the nuclear deal in 2018 and restored suffocating sanctions on Iran's crucial oil and banking sectors.

US Iran envoy says he is focused on ‘where we can be useful’ and not going to ‘waste our time’ on nuclear deal right now
Jennifer Hansler/CNN/November 01/2022
The US Special Envoy for Iran on Monday said the United States is focused on matters on Iran “where we can be useful,” and is not currently going to “waste our time” on the nuclear deal “if nothing’s going to happen.”Rob Malley said the US is still committed to diplomacy to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, but has turned its attention away from efforts on the nuclear deal amid sweeping protests in Iran and transfers of weapons from Tehran to Moscow for the war in Ukraine. The special envoy’s latest comments reflect how stagnant the talks to restore the nuclear agreement have become – talks that just months ago the US and allies believed had reached a breakthrough. Speaking at an event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Monday, Malley said “several times we came very close” to an agreement to rejoin the deal, which the US quit under the Trump administration. Iran has increasingly breached its commitments to the deal and has developed its nuclear program.“Each time we came close, Iran came up with one new extraneous demand that derailed the talks,” Malley said. “That’s where we were late August, early September and there has been no movement since then,” he said, adding, “nothing’s happening on the nuclear deal so we’re not going to spend our time, waste our time on it, if nothing’s going to happen.”“We’re going to spend our time where we can be useful,” he said, including supporting the protesters in Iran, and trying to stop the transfer of weapons from Tehran to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine. Despite the standstill on efforts over the nuclear deal, Malley defended the administration’s continued efforts to restore the agreement, arguing that the Trump administration tried the alternative and “it didn’t work.”“We make no apology for having tried and still trying to do everything we can to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Again, a preference for diplomacy if that can work, with tools of pressure, sanctions in particular. But also keeping very much all options on the table in case diplomacy were to fail,” Malley said. “We will use other tools, and in last resort, a military option if necessary, to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon,” he added. He also said that the administration has continued to pursue its policy priorities regardless of the negotiations on the deal. “There is nothing now that we are not doing because we are thinking of the potential of a potential nuclear deal in the future,” he said, adding “we’re not tying our hands because of this hope that someday there’ll be a deal.”

Canada Imposes Fresh Iran Sanctions over Human Rights Violations
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 01/2022
Canada on Monday imposed fresh sanctions on Iran, marking the fourth package of sanctions it has implemented for alleged human rights violations in that country, the foreign ministry said in a statement. he latest sanctions target four individuals and two entities, including senior officials and Iran's Law Enforcement Forces, which Canada accused of participating in the suppression and arrest of unarmed protesters, according to the statement. The Iranian people, including women and youths, are risking their lives because they have endured for far too long a regime that has repressed and violated their humanity," Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said in a statement. "Canada will continue to support the Iranian people as they courageously demand a better future," Joly said. anada has been carrying out a series of sanctions against Iran over alleged human rights abuses, including the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurdish woman who died while in custody of Iran's morality police.

Russia Announces Wider Evacuation of Occupied Southern Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 01/2022
Russia ordered civilians to leave a sliver of Ukraine along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, a major extension of an evacuation order that Kyiv says amounts to the forced depopulation of occupied territory. ussia had previously ordered civilians out of a pocket it controls on the west bank of the river, where Ukrainian forces have been advancing to capture the city of Kherson. ussian-installed officials said on Tuesday they were now extending that order to a 15-km (9-mile) buffer zone along the east bank as well, reported Reuters. kraine says the evacuations include forced deportations from occupied territory, a war crime. Russia, which claims to have annexed the area, says it is taking civilians to safety because of a threat Ukraine might use unconventional weapons. Due to the possibility of the use of prohibited methods of war by the Ukrainian regime, as well as information that Kyiv is preparing a massive missile strike on the Kakhovka hydroelectric station, there is an immediate danger of the Kherson region being flooded," Vladimir Saldo, Russian-installed head of occupied Kherson province, said in a video message. Given the situation, I have decided to expand the evacuation zone by 15 km from the Dnipro," he said. "The decision will make it possible to create a layered defense in order to repel Ukrainian attacks and protect civilians." oscow has accused Kyiv of planning to use a so-called "dirty bomb" to spread radiation, or to blow up a dam to flood towns and villages in Kherson province. Kyiv says accusations it would use such tactics on its own territory are absurd, but that Russia might be planning such actions itself to blame Ukraine.
The mouth of the wide Dnipro River has become one of the most consequential frontlines in the war in recent weeks, with Ukrainian forces advancing to expel Russian troops from their only pocket on the west bank. Russia has thousands of troops there and has been trying to reinforce the area. Ukraine's advance has slowed in recent days, with commanders citing weather and tougher terrain. aldo, the Russian-imposed occupation leader for the province, identified seven towns on the east bank that would now be evacuated, comprising the main populated settlements along that stretch of the river. he European Union accused Moscow on Tuesday of launching a new program to illegally conscript men in Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014, to fight in its forces. The EU statement said Moscow was disproportionately conscripting members of Crimea's indigenous Tatar minority to fight in its war. ussia, which launched its "special military operation" in Ukraine in February, has announced it has completed a mobilization drive ordered in September by President Vladimir Putin, saying it had called up 300,000 reservists and more were not needed. ut Putin has not issued a decree ending the mobilization, raising concern he could restart it without notice. A senior Russian ruling party senator said on Tuesday a decree formally ending the mobilization was not needed. housands of Russian men have fled abroad to escape conscription to a conflict which has killed thousands, displaced millions, shaken the global economy and reopened Cold War-era divisions.
'BARBARIAN HORDE'
Just north of Kherson, Russia fired four missiles into the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv overnight, demolishing half an apartment building. Reuters saw rescue workers recover the body of an elderly woman from the rubble. s rush hour was under way, passersby walked past a two-storey school, the front of which had been torn off by the force of the blast that left a massive crater. This is what the barbarian horde does," said Irena Siden, 48, the school’s deputy director, standing in front of the gutted building as workers began sweeping up the rubble. "They (the Russians) are the descendants of the barbarian horde. They stole our history and how they are trying to steal our culture." ussia fired a huge volley of missiles at Ukrainian cities on Monday in what Putin called retaliation for an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet at the weekend. Ukraine said it shot most of those missiles down, but some had hit power stations, knocking out electricity and water supplies. That's not all we could have done," Putin said at a televised news conference. Putin has also suspended cooperation with a UN-backed program to escort cargo ships carrying grain out of the war zone. The three-month-old program had lifted a de facto Russian blockade of Ukraine, one of the world's biggest grain producers, and averted a global food crisis. ussia's suspension of cooperation had raised international fears that a food crisis could return, but so far Moscow has not restored its blockade, with 12 ships able to depart Ukraine on Monday carrying grain, and three more sailing on Tuesday. hether those shipments can continue may depend on whether insurers are still willing to underwrite them.

Top Biden Envoy Pushes Back on Criticism of Iran Strategy
Asharq Al-Awsat/November 01/2022
A top Biden administration official on Monday pushed back against growing criticism from Iranian American activists who are calling on the White House to abandon its efforts to resurrect the Iran nuclear deal. The US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, said that the administration “makes no apology” for “trying to do everything we can to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” The White House has become increasingly pessimistic about reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement but has stopped short of declaring the deal dead. The White House has faced growing pressure to scuttle the deal altogether following the Tehran government’s brutal crackdown of a women-led protest movement and its decision to send hundreds of drones to Russia for use in its war in Ukraine. Malley said that lost in the debate is that as the administration has pursued an Iran nuclear deal, it has also continued to pile sanctions on Iranian officials. The administration announced sanctions against Iranian officials for the brutal treatment of demonstrators after last month's death of a young Iranian woman while in the custody of Iranian security forces. The administration has also hit Iran with sanctions for supplying drones and technical assistance to Russia and ordered US military strikes in August against Iranian-backed militias in Syria in response to attacks on US forces in the region.
“I think people have to understand that they were not tying our hands because of ... this hope that someday maybe there’ll be a deal,” Malley said during an appearance at a virtual event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank. “No, we are taking action. We’re not waiting. We’re taking the action that we think is consistent and necessary to promote our values and our national security interests.” The Biden administration this month levied new sanctions against Iran over the crackdown on antigovernment protests spurred by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Morality police had detained Amini last month for not properly covering her hair with the Islamic headscarf, known as the hijab, which is mandatory for Iranian women. Amini collapsed at a police station and died three days later. At least 270 people have been killed and 14,000 arrested, according to the group Human Rights Activists in Iran. Demonstrations have continued, even as the feared paramilitary Revolutionary Guard has warned young Iranians to stop.
The White House has also said that Iranian troops are “directly engaged on the ground” in Crimea supporting Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s power stations and other key infrastructure. The Iranians have provided the technical assistance after selling the Russians — desperate for precision guided weapons — hundreds of the drones. The Iranian government has denied selling Moscow drones or providing it with assistance. The Iran nuclear deal already has been teetering toward collapse despite President Joe Biden’s efforts to revive it since August, with his administration saying Tehran has sought to push extraneous issues into the indirect talks. Still, the administration has not given up all hope for a turnaround. The pact, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, would provide Tehran with billions of dollars in sanctions relief in exchange for the country agreeing to roll back its nuclear program to the limits set by the 2015 deal. The deal was brokered by the Obama administration before being abandoned by the Trump administration in 2018. It includes caps on enrichment and how much material Iran can stockpile and limits the operation of advanced centrifuges needed to enrich.

Russia begins drafting 120,000 more soldiers; Iran reportedly to supply Russia with missiles: Live updates
John Bacon/USA TODAY/November 01/2022
Russia kicked off its annual fall draft Tuesday with a dubious pledge that the 120,000 would-be conscripts won't be sent to fight in Ukraine.
Rear Admiral Vladimir Tsimlyansky said the draft has “nothing to do with the conduct of the special military operation in Ukraine.” Russian officials refer to the war as a "special operation."
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment that Russian officials, concerned about draft dodging, are "attempting to deceive the Russian population into believing that autumn conscripts will not be sent to fight in Ukraine." The assessment says Russia does not consider the regions it has annexed, where some of the most brutal fighting is underway, to be Ukraine.
"Conscripts will almost certainly be deployed to Ukraine after their training is complete around March or April 2023, and could be deployed sooner in response to changes on the battlefield," the assessment says.
The draft comes days after the end of Russia's "partial mobilization" draft that added 300,000 military reservists primarily with combat experience. They were told they would undergo training before being sent to the "special military operation" in Ukraine to serve as an occupying force in territories already seized.
The British Defense Ministry, however, reported that thousands of those recruits were sent to the front – many with weapons that "are likely in barely useable condition." Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu said Tuesday that "drawbacks" seen at the initial stage of that callup had been remedied.
Other developments:
►Iran is preparing to send approximately 1,000 additional weapons, including short range ballistic missiles and more attack drones, to Russia to use in its war against Ukraine, CNN reported, citing officials from a western country that closely monitors Iran’s weapons program. Iran already has been supplying Russia with explosive drones.
►Explosions rocked the city of Poltava in northeastern Ukraine early Tuesday, Gov. Dmytro Lunin said on Telegram. Four Russian drones crashed into buildings and ignited fires, three other drones were shot down, Lunin said.
Grain ships sail from Ukraine without Russian protection
Ships loaded with grain are departing Ukraine despite Russia suspending its participation in a U.N.-brokered deal that ensures safe wartime passage of critical food supplies. The U.N. said Tuesday that three ships carrying corn, wheat and sunflower meal left through a humanitarian sea corridor set up in July. A total of 14 ships also sailed Monday. Analysts say Russia still is bound by the terms of the grain deal it signed with Turkey and the U.N., including a commitment not to target civilian vessels carrying the grain that is desperately needed in Africa and elsewhere.
International probe of 'dirty bomb' claim nears completion
International experts have almost completed an investigation into unsubstantiated Russian claims that Ukraine is building a radioactive "dirty bomb" at two sites amid rising safety concerns at a war-battered nuclear power plant, the global nuclear energy chief said Tuesday.
Russia's state-run media outlet RIA Novosti said it had identified the Eastern Mineral Enrichment Plant in central Dnipropetrovsk region and the Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv as the locations where the bomb was being developed. Ukrainian authorities deny the claim and asked the International Atomic Energy Agency to investigate.
Rafael Mariano Grossi, the agency's general director, said he would provide his initial conclusions about the latest claims by week's end.
But Grossi also reiterated concerns over the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest, which has been occupied by Russian forces for months. Grossi expressed grave concern about the increasingly stressful working conditions for the plant’s Ukrainian operating personnel, now requested by Russia to sign new employment contracts to replace contracts with the Ukrainian national operator, Energoatom.
Power, water restored in Kyiv after Russian assault on infrastructure
Water and electricity have been fully restored in Kyiv, one day after an onslaught of Russian missiles targeted crucial infrastructure and paralyzed the city of 3 million people, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Kyiv will continue to implement rolling blackouts to stabilize the power system's operation, he said. Monday's attack during the morning rush hour sent commuters scrambling for cover, knocked out water to 80% of the city and cut power to hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses.
"I ask Kyiv residents to save electricity, especially during peak morning and evening hours," Klitschko said on Telegram. "It is very important because the (damage) in the energy system of Ukraine is significant."
*This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Live Ukraine war updates: Russia drafting 120,000 more soldiers

Putin confirms Russia’s readiness to strengthen ties with Arab League
Arab News/November 01, 2022
Moscow is ready to strengthen ties with the Arab League and all its members, President Vladimir Putin said in a message to the heads of state and heads of government of Arab League countries participating in the 31st summit. Putin’s message focused on strengthening regional and global security, state news agency TASS reported on Tuesday. “We believe that the military and political issues that the Middle East and North Africa are facing, including the Syrian and Libyan crises and the Yemeni and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts, should be resolved based on universally recognized international laws,” the message from the Russian president said. The statement called for respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states. Middle Eastern and North African countries are playing an increasing role in the process, Putin said. “Undoubtedly, the tasks of improving the international situation and opposing the threats and challenges of our time increase the demand for coordinated collective efforts and significantly raise the importance of representative organizations such as the Arab League,” Putin said. The partnership between Russia and Arab countries, Putin accreted, will ensure global peace and stability. The 31st summit of the Arab League is set to kick off in the Algerian capital of Algiers on Tuesday. The summit’s agenda includes regional issues, such as the situation in Yemen, Libya and Syria, the Palestine issue, as well as ways to ensure food security and strengthen relations between Arab nations.

Algeria readies for Arab League summit on divisive topics
Associated Press/Arab News/November 01, 2022
Algeria is hosting the 31st summit of the largest annual Arab conference on Tuesday and Wednesday as the region battles to find common ground over a series of divisive issues.
The 22-member Arab League last held its summit in 2019, before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In the years since, new challenges have drastically reshaped the region's agenda, with the establishment of diplomatic ties between Israel and four more Arab League countries, as well as the fallout of the war in Ukraine. All those issues are expected to take center stage during Algeria's debut hosting of the summit.
The event provides an opportunity for Africa's largest country — by territory — to showcase its leadership in the Arab world. Algeria is a major oil and gas producer and is perceived by European nations as a key supplier amid the global energy crisis.
Chief among the summit's discussion points will likely be the food and energy crises aggravated by the conflict in eastern Europe. The crisis has had devastating consequences for Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia, among other Arab countries, struggling to import enough wheat and fuel to satisfy their population.
Also, the past month has seen the worst drought in several decades ravage swaths of Somalia, one of the Arab League's newer members, bringing some areas of the country to the brink of famine.
Russia's reinforcement of its blockade on Ukraine's Black Sea ports on Sunday threatens to further escalate the crisis, with many Arab countries near solely dependent on eastern European wheat exports.
To the annoyance of Ukraine and its Western backers, the war has become a point of unity among Arab League members, with nearly all adopting a stance of neutrality. Experts say this is likely to continue. ''Political and economic involvement in this conflict would be costly for Arab countries,'' said Hasni Abidi, a political scientist who teaches at Switzerland's Global Studies Institute. ''That's why a new non-alignment (agreement) could be a realistic approach.''Other issues are likely to prove more divisive. The series of normalization agreements the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco signed with Israel over the past three years have divided the region into two camps. Sudan has also agreed to establish ties with Israel.
Algeria, among other league members, has remained fiercely opposed to the deals. Two weeks ago it hosted talks in a bid to end the Palestinian political divide and reconcile the Fatah party, whose Palestinian Authority rules parts of the occupied West Bank, and the militant Hamas group, which has control of the Gaza Strip. The Algerian government is likely to use the summit to try to reaffirm support for the Palestinians.
''The Arab League has lost its place of reference in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict,'' said Abidi.
Arab leaders will also be closely monitoring the results of Israel's parliamentary election, which coincides with the summit. The election comes at a time of heightened tensions in the West Bank, where the Israeli military conducts nightly arrest raids in searches for Palestinian militants. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed in recent months, including armed gunmen, stone-throwing teenagers and people uninvolved in violence.
The meeting also comes as tensions mount between Algeria and Morocco, with Algiers having severed diplomatic ties with its North African neighbor last year. The persisting feud between the two countries stems from a dispute over the Western Sahara, a territory annexed by Morocco in 1975. Sahrawis from the Polisario Front are backed by Algeria and have sought independence for the region for decades.
Morocco's growing ties with Israel, which include a military and security deal, have further soured relations over the past two years.
''Morocco cannot follow Algeria in terms of military spending, so a military alliance with Israel is a way to balance the power with Algeria,'' said Michael Ayari, an analyst with the International Crisis Group.
Under pressure from other Arab states, Algeria invited Morocco to the summit. However, several Algerian officials told The Associated Press that Morocco's foreign minister Nasser Bourita walked out of a preliminary meeting with his Algerian counterpart on Monday. The latter refused to speak about Iran's alleged role in supplying the Polisario Front with drones. The Algerian officials spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak with the media.
The Moroccan Foreign Ministry later denied this, attributing the fallout to an Algerian TV station's misrepresentation of a map of Morroco. The ministry said it has since received a presidential apology from the Algerian president. It remains unclear whether Morroco's King Mohammed VI will attend the summit.
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman formally announced earlier this month that he won't attend the summit due to "health reasons," following a phone call with Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune. Other Gulf Arab leaders are expected to attend the summit.
Syria is also absent from this year's summit, having been expelled from the league in 2011 as punishment for President Bashir Assad's brutal government crackdown on pro-democracy protests. However, his government has been seeking to improve its relations with some Arab countries, with Assad making a rare diplomatic trip to the UAE in March. Over the past year, Algeria has been openly campaigning for Syria's reintegration into the league, but several Gulf Arab states have opposed the move.
In preparation for the summit, Algerian authorities spent millions of dollars to embellish the city, repainting its notorious white facades and deploying the flags of the 22 members of the Arab League near the city's Great Mosque. The capital has been placed under high security for several days.
Several Algiers residents told the AP that food shortages had recently disappeared.
"It's because of — or thanks to — the summit," joked one shop owner known as Mokrane.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 01-02/2022
Russian journalists defy Putin to report on casualties in Ukraine
Markus Ziener/ Los Angeles Times/November 01, 2022
TOPSHOT - The body of a Russian serviceman lies near destroyed Russian military vehicles on the roadside on the outskirts of Kharkiv on February 26, 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. - Ukrainian forces repulsed a Russian attack on Kyiv but "sabotage groups" infiltrated the capital, officials said on February 26, as Ukraine reported 198 civilian deaths, including children, following Russia's invasion. A defiant Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky vowed his pro-Western country would never give in to the Kremlin even as Russia said it had fired cruise missiles at military targets. (Photo by Sergey BOBOK / AFP) (Photo by SERGEY BOBOK/AFP via Getty Images)
Soldiers from Buryatia, a small Republic in Siberian Russia, were among the first to be sent to the front lines in Ukraine. And they were among the first to die there.
When journalist Yelana Trifonova heard about a memorial service for the fallen, she immediately bought a ticket for the eight-hour trip from her home in Irkutsk to Ulan-Ude, the capital of Buryatia. “I wanted to know what was going on there,” said the 46-year-old who works for the online platform Lyudi Baykal. “I wanted to feel the atmosphere, and I wanted to look into the faces of the relatives.”
Trifonova and fellow reporter Olga Mutinova, 44, reported the story of the funeral; Trifonova wrote it, and it was published on April 28 on the landing page of Lyudi Baikala, with photos and video.
Trifonova said she had to do the story, no matter the consequences. But the consequences of defying the Russian government can be steep.
One third of the roughly 1 million people of Buryatia, which shares a border with Mongolia, are ethnic Buryats and mostly of the Buddhist faith. The average monthly salary in Buryatia is about one-third of what people earn in Moscow, and the Russian military is an attractive employer for young people.
Beginning in early March, mourning ceremonies for soldiers who died in Russia’s war on Ukraine were held in the large hall of the Lukodrome, a sports complex in the center of Ulan-Ude. When Trifonova arrived, traffic police had already blocked off the entrance for cars.
Inside, rather than the one coffin that was originally announced, there were four. The first held 24-year-old Naidal Zyrenow, a local student of the year in 2016, who served in the Russian army as a paramedic. Naidal’s hands were crossed on his gray uniform jacket. One hand was bandaged.
The second coffin held the remains of 35-year-old Bulat Odoev, who served in the 5th Armored Brigade and is survived by a pregnant wife and daughter. The body of Shargal Dashiev, 38, who left behind a pregnant wife and two daughters, was in the third. Vladislav Kokorin, 20, who grew up in a children’s home and then went into foster care, was to be buried in the fourth.
Three of the dead were Buddhists and were buried according to traditions associated with the religion. In her story, Trifonova wrote that three Buddhist lamas stood up and began to walk around the coffins — as did the relatives. Not one sound of weeping could be heard.
Buddhists, Trifonova wrote, are not supposed to mourn loudly. After death, the soul must make its way to heaven to then return — after 49 days — in a new body. Tears would block the journey of the deceased and prevent him from letting go.
The ceremony brought clarity for Trifonova. “It became so clear to me why Russia was sending the Buryats first,” she said. “They belong to a small people in Russia, they are poor, they are humble, they are not Slavs — and they do not complain.”
Many of the families, she added, did not want to blame the government, even at the moment of their greatest grief.
“But this isn’t fair,” Trifonova said. “They don’t dare to take people from Moscow or St. Petersburg, so they turn to the ones who are showing the least resistance like Buryats, Tuvans or Dagestans.”
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia started to enjoy a lively and pluralistic media landscape. New journals and dailies sprang up, and some of the more established ones were shedding their roles as mouthpieces for the government. Even a government newspaper like Izvestia became informative and readable in the ’90s.
But when Vladimir Putin came to power, expressing dissenting views became increasingly difficult. Pressure on the media to conform with government regulations was stepped up. A number of journalists were killed in Russia, the most prominent of whom was Anna Politkovskaya, who reported about the war in Chechnya for the Novaya Gazeta and died in 2006.
Eventually, the Russian government withdrew the licenses of the few remaining independent news organizations, and they had to shut down. A relatively new law forbids contradicting the Kremlin’s language rules, which prohibit the use of certain words (“war," “invasion”) to describe the fighting in Ukraine.
Before moving to Lyudi Baykal, Trifonova and Mutinova worked for more than 10 years at Vostochno-Sibirskaya Pravda, a newspaper that was founded shortly after Russia's October Revolution of 1917 and is based in Irkutsk. But in the last few years, it had been increasingly toeing the line of the local government.
“The censorship didn’t come overnight, it came gradually,” Mutinova recalled. “Ten years ago, it was still possible to criticize the governor. Five years ago, this was already a no-go.”
The limits on reporting became tighter every year as the newspaper became more dependent on state funding. “If we wanted to write about the conditions in the local prison or even mention the name of Alexei Navalny we crossed a red line,” Mutinova said, referring to Russia's best-known dissident. “The same was true if we simply wanted to report on protests taking place in the main square in Irkutsk.” What was left to write were innocuous stories about nature or the local hospital, she said. “This is not the journalism we stand for.”
Shortly after the Russian war in Ukraine started, Mutinova and Trifonova assumed editorial responsibility for Lyudi Baikala. The website used to belong to Vostochno-Sibirskaya Pravda but had become independent thanks to a private investor. There they reported and wrote stories — concentrating their reporting on the Irkutsk/ Baikal region — about the dead and the wounded, about the tragedies of war, about the mobilization of soldiers and about cases of corruption.
“Once reporters were there to control the people in power,” Mutinova said. “This is what we are supposed to do.”
Now, however, the journalists have to publish behind an invisible curtain.
On April 16, Roskomnadzor, Russia’s federal media regulator, declared, without giving any reason, that it would block access to the news outlet. The website can be accessed only through a virtual private network, or VPN, which connects users to a private server that encrypts internet traffic and allows them to bypass restrictions. According to Trifonova and Mutinova, Russians are increasingly turning to VPNs to get independent information.
After Lyudi Baikala was officially blocked, Mutinova and Trifonova said donations rose and messages of encouragement and gratitude poured in. “The story about the funeral in Ulan-Ude was read about 80,000 times,” Mutinova said. “Some of our videos have been viewed hundreds of thousands of times.”
Trifonova added: “People have been brainwashed for months by official propaganda and repeated their version of why we are at war with Ukraine” — that the operation was necessary to cleanse Ukraine of Nazis, to liberate the oppressed people of the Donbass and to show the West that Russians can’t be bullied around. “But now as the war is getting closer, and the victims and the sufferings can no longer be concealed, more and more are waking up.”
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, thousands of Russian journalists have paid a price for spreading “fake” news about the military. Sanctions have ranged from fines to sentences of five days in jail to years in prison.
Journalists who attended the funerals in Ulan-Ude were questioned by the police and told to stop reporting on them. On Sept. 23, Mutinova and Trifonova were handcuffed and arrested by local police in Irkutsk, and freed after three hours of interrogation. No charges were filed. A case is currently underway against them for allegedly distributing fliers that say, “No to war.”
Mutinova and Trifonova were arrested only two days after the partial mobilization of 300,000 Russian military reservists was announced. The measure led to many thousands of younger Russians fleeing the country to escape the draft.
A man in a coffin.
“The mobilization is the big game changer,” Olga says. “Now no one can claim that the war is none of their business. The war has arrived in every house, in every apartment.”
Lyudi Baikala is publishing a running list of the dead. So far, 336 Buryats and 78 soldiers from the Irkutsk Oblast have returned in wooden coffins. Russian authorities long ago stopped publishing any numbers.
Back in March, when the funeral ceremony at Ulan-Ude’s Lukodrome was drawing to a close, officials stepped up to the microphone. Bair Tsyrenov, deputy chairman of the government of the Republic of Buryatia, said of the fallen soldiers. “They died for the greatness of Russia, for the end of bloodshed in Ukraine.”
Ulan-Ude Mayor Igor Shutenkov announced: “They fell to defend the future of our country.”
Lt. Col. Vitaly Laskov, commander of the 11th Airborne Assault Brigade, added, “The paratroopers took their last leap into the sky.”
“There was no sobbing,” Trifonova recalls. “Only pain-filled silence.”
*Markus Ziener is a special correspondent.

جون بولن/جريدة الهل: بايدن يدير ظهره للسعودية الحليفة، ويساند نظام ملالي إيران العدو
Biden has it backwards on Iran, Saudi Arabia
John Bolton/The Hill/November 01/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113096/john-bolton-the-hill-biden-has-it-backwards-on-iran-saudi-arabia-%d8%ac%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%a8%d9%88%d9%84%d9%86-%d8%ac%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87%d9%84-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%8a%d8%af%d9%86/
تحليل سياسي مهم كتبه مستشار الأمن القومي السابق في أميركا جون بولن/ ونشرته اليوم صحيفة الهل، يشرح من خلاله غباء وخطورة ويسارية وحقد وعدم رؤيوية سياسات ادارة الرئيس بايدين، ويركز على انحيازه الأعمي والفاضح لملالي إيران ولنظامهم القمعي والإرهابي والتوسعي والمذهبي، وهم عملياً حلفاء بوتين ويشاركونه حربه الإجرامية في أوكرانيا بأسلحتهم من مسيرات وصواريخ واعتدة حربية، في حين هو بغباء وعن حقد وعمى بصر يعادي السعودية، حليف أميركا القوي منذ سنين طويلة، ويجهد لفرض قيود قاتلة على بيعها الأسلحة، وهو يعرف جيداً بأن الحوثيين في اليمن، كما حزب الله الإرهابي، هما مجرد ادوات إيرانية تخريبية، وكذلك يجهد بقوة لعودة أميركا إلى الإتفاق النووي معها، ويتنازل لها عن كل القيود التي تلجم مساعي وصولها إلى القنبلة النووية، ويتعامى عن دورها التوسعي والتخريبي في الشرق الأوسط.
Why does President Biden favor policies alienating Saudi Arabia, whose alignment with the U.S. dates from Franklin Roosevelt, while coddling Iran, our most dangerous Near East enemy?
Biden’s recent visit to Riyadh, pursuing his political priority to reduce gasoline prices before November’s elections, unmistakably failed. Criticizing Riyadh for meddling in domestic U.S. politics, the White House, despite its own obvious political motivations, threatened unspecified “consequences,” saying it will “reassess” U.S.-Saudi relations due to the Kingdom’s “decision to align their energy policy with Russia’s war.”
Congressional Democrats immediately revived proposals to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia because of Yemen’s civil war and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Today’s oil-pricing tensions did not arise in a vacuum, although the administration is trying to make it appear that way. In fact, Biden may simply have believed he had a deal when he didn’t, reminding us that international-affairs scholars Simon & Garfunkel once warned “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”
And it is more than obvious that Iran is Russia’s real Middle East ally, as its supply of “kamikaze” drones demonstrates. Reprisals against the Saudis now would cause lasting strategic damage to Washington, in fact enhancing Moscow’s influence in Riyadh. Biden’s badly misguided Middle East policies are reaping predictable results. In 2020, he was rhetorically brutal to the Saudis, saying “I would make it very clear we were not going to in fact sell more weapons to them. … We are going to in fact make them pay the price, and make them in fact the pariah that they are.”
He emphasized there was “very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia,” pledging to “end the sale of material to the Saudis where they’re going in and murdering children.”
That was strike one from the Saudi perspective, although later, as president, Biden did authorize some Saudi arms sales. Strike two was candidate Biden’s overall campaign against the oil-and-gas industry. He described climate change as “the existential threat of all time,” essentially advocating putting Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Arab states out of business. Biden wants to reduce reliance on carbon-based fuels through all possible means, notwithstanding the complex dependence of advanced industrial society on precisely those fuels. The merits of Biden’s views are debatable, and their likelihood of success dubious, but his hostility to the industry, foreign and domestic, is open and notorious.
Speaking of existential threats, strike three from Riyadh’s perspective was Biden’s obsession with rejoining the gravely flawed 2015 Iran nuclear deal. For a candidate who stressed the importance of repairing America’s international alliances, Biden paid little heed to the fears of Israel and the Gulf Arab states. They view Tehran’s continued pursuit of nuclear weapons, ballistic-missile delivery systems and support for terrorists, like Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, in just that light. They rightly fear that Biden’s blindness to Iran’s multiple threats, so reminiscent of President Obama, reflects an upside-down view of the Middle East that endangers not only them but the United States as well. For the Saudis, these three strikes alone easily justified rebuffing Biden’s recent supplications. Riyadh says its subsequent decision to restrict oil production rests on economic analyses unrelated to U.S. politics, a disagreement unlikely to be resolved soon. The real question is what Washington does next. Eliminating or restricting U.S. arms sales to Saudi Arabia, as Sens. Menendez (D-N.J.), Blumenthal (D-Conn.) and others urge, likely with White House support, is precisely the wrong approach.
Yemen’s tragic civil war continues because of Iran’s persistent efforts to meddle in the Gulf Arabs’ backyard. It is Iran’s surrogates in Yemen, using weapons supplied by Tehran, that have targeted Saudi and Emirati civilian sites like airports and oil installations. Tehran keeps the Houthis threat alive to obtain the incalculable strategic advantage of enveloping the Gulf monarchies through a continued Iranian military presence in Yemen. The arms shipments that should cease are from Iran to the Houthis, not U.S. sales to Saudi or the United Arab Emirates. The civil war would likely find at least partial resolution shortly.
Moreover, the region’s truly momentous strategic question now is whether Iran’s ongoing demonstrations, sparked by Tehran’s “morality police” murdering Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, will grow sufficiently to threaten the regime’s legitimacy and very existence. After years of widespread opposition to the ayatollahs’ economic mismanagement, these new country-wide demonstrations are being reinforced by increasing numbers of striking workers in the oil-and-gas and manufacturing sectors.
Western reporters outside of Tehran are rare, but reports in Farsi on social media, including cell-phone pictures and videos, show the resistance continuing and strengthening. There is word of security forces refusing orders to suppress the resistance or fleeing confrontations with emboldened demonstrators.
cling to power. Indeed, their savagery just in the six weeks since Amini’s murder has left over 200 civilian dead and thousands injured.
The White House is utterly tone deaf, at precisely the moment when domestic opposition to the ayatollahs has reached levels unseen since they seized power in 1979, to pressure not Iran but Saudi Arabia. Riyadh and other Arabs can quietly and effectively assist Iran’s resistance, especially the Arab and Sunni ethnic and religious minorities, and provide safe-havens outside Iran for the resistance to organize, plan and grow into a real counter-revolutionary force. If the ayatollahs fell, their successors would not likely sell drones to Russia.
Even former President Obama has admitted he was wrong not to have done more to aid the protesters against Iran’s thoroughly rigged 2009 presidential election. Biden likes to say, “don’t compare me to the Almighty; compare me to the alternative.” He should apply the same logic to the Middle East, which should make the choice easy for his administration.
High U.S. gasoline prices are due to Biden’s own inflationary fiscal policies (and the Federal Reserve’s sustained low-interest rates), as well as restrictions on domestic oil production. Post-election, Biden should stop blaming Saudi Arabia and look in the mirror.
*John Bolton was national security adviser to President Trump from 2018 to 2019, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006 and held senior State Department posts in 2001-2005 and 1985-1989. His most recent book is “The Room Where It Happened” (2020). He is the founder of John Bolton Super PAC, a political action committee supporting candidates who believe in a strong U.S. foreign policy.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3712379-biden-has-it-backwards-on-iran-saudi-arabia/

Biden must act on Iran’s drone and missile transfers
Behnam Ben Taleblu and Andrea Stricker/The Hill/November 01/2022
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3711698-biden-must-act-on-irans-drone-and-missile-transfers/
“The fact is this: Tehran is now directly engaged on the ground and through the provision of weapons that … are killing civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.” That’s how National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby framed Iran’s growing involvement in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Fast-emerging facts on the ground support his assertion.
Ukrainian forces reportedly have killed ten Iranian advisors in a strike against Russian positions. In recent weeks, the Russian military bombarded Ukraine with Iranian-made kamikaze drones like the Shahed-136 – more aptly called a loitering munition. Procured from Tehran this summer, Vladimir Putin’s forces began using the Shahed against key energy infrastructure in Ukraine in September, killing at least five civilians. Tehran’s transfer of these weapons violates UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution 2231, the resolution enshrining the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which also bans Tehran until 2023 from importing or exporting specific missile and military-related hardware. While the Biden administration has expressed interest in countering Iranian precision-strike capabilities, the pressure it has levied thus far has been inadequate to counter Tehran’s evolving unmanned aerial threats.
In fact, Iran is set to transfer more Shahed-136s to Russia, allowing Putin to conserve his long-range strike assets and also fight in a more cost-efficient manner. Case in point: The Shahed reportedly costs only around $20,000 apiece. Rebranded as the Geran-2, the propeller-powered Shahed can travel an estimated 1,000 kilometers carrying a small warhead weighing under 50 kilograms.
Tehran reportedly also will soon provide to Moscow precision-strike short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), known as the Fateh-110 and Zulfiqar. Both are single-stage solid-propellant projectiles, variants of which Iran has used in recent military operations. This missile transfer would be a historic first between the Islamic Republic and the Russian Federation, and also constitutes a violation of UNSC resolution 2231.
The United States, as well as Britain, France, and Germany (the “E3”), have decried the Iranian drone transfers as a violation of resolution 2231. The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office, as well as the EU Council, sanctioned three Iranian persons and one entity supporting Tehran’s drone efforts. Yet America and the E3 could penalize Iran’s violations and prevent them from becoming legal internationally by triggering the reimposition of UN sanctions that were lifted by the Iran nuclear deal — but they have failed to do so. This is in spite of the fact that Iran is in flagrant non-compliance with the atomic accord and, during 18 months of talks, has refused to revive it. Washington must do better.
The drone and missile transfers specifically violate key clauses in Annex B of resolution 2231, provisions that remain in effect only until October 2023. Paragraph 4 of the annex states that nations require permission from the UNSC to engage in “the supply, sale or transfer directly or indirectly from their territories, or by their nationals or using their flag vessels or aircraft to or from Iran, or for the use in or benefit of Iran, and whether or not originating in their territories, of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology set out in S/2015/546” — which contains the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), which was submitted to the Security Council when it passed resolution 2231 in July 2015. Its provisions lay out equipment and technologies that the UNSC agreed were prohibited for transfer to or from Iran: Category II, Item 19.A covers both the missiles and drones that Iran is transferring to Russia. Russia and Iran have not sought written permission from the UNSC for drone or prospective missile transfers.
The drone transfers also would have violated a past arms embargo on Iran contained in resolution 2231. The embargo, which expired in October 2020, had similar language regarding permission for states to import from or export to Iran weapons categorized under the UN Register of Conventional Arms. Category IV of the register includes combat aircraft and unmanned combat aerial vehicles, whereas Category VII includes missiles and missiles launchers “capable of delivering a warhead or weapon of destruction to a range of at least 25 kilometres.”
Iran’s expanding arms proliferation radius reflects the lack of constraint the Islamic Republic feels from the Biden administration’s overall Iran policy. Iranian drones are not just a Middle Eastern battlefield phenomenon as they can be found as far away as Venezuela, Ethiopia, and now among Russia’s forces in Ukraine.
To date, team Biden has only twice sanctioned elements of Tehran’s drone program. In October 2021, it designated key persons and entities leading and supporting the program, and acted again in September 2022 after Iran’s transfer of these systems to Russia. Washington should increase the pace, scale, and scope of these designations to expose and penalize the supply chains and financial entities that feed it.
America should also coordinate designations with European partners to multi-lateralize this blacklisting and expand the “no-go” zone for Iranian technology procurement agents and foreign suppliers. This offers policymakers an opportunity to share best practices on sanctions implementation and enforcement, as well as enhanced Iran and Russia export and financial controls. Washington and the E3 can move this cooperation further by enacting the snapback mechanism in resolution 2231 to restore all prior UN penalties on the Islamic Republic, including permanent arms transfer and ballistic missile testing prohibitions.
tration should seize the opportunity to reset the chessboard against the Islamic Republic. Step one requires recognizing that Iranian weapons proliferation will increase so long as Washington sits on the sidelines.
*Behnam Ben Taleblu is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where Andrea Stricker is a research fellow and deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program. They both contribute to FDD’s Iran program. Follow Andrea on Twitter @StrickerNonpro.

Turkey: 243 Sleepless Nights for Erdoğan
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/November 01/2022
Yöneylem's poll also found that 63% of respondents say Turkey is being "badly governed," and 58.7% say that they "would never vote for Erdoğan." Only 33.3% of the respondents said they would vote for Erdoğan while 55.6% said they would vote for the opposition candidate.
The numbers predict an easy win for the opposition and a historical defeat for Erdoğan. Clearly, 2023 will be the first election since 2022 in which Erdoğan is not the clear favorite. But a smooth, democratic transfer of power is unlikely.
Six opposition parties, CHP, IYI and four small groupings with different ideologies, have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate against Erdoğan. The most likely candidate will be CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a social democrat...
In this complex picture, Turkey's Kurdish minority, representing 11%-13% of the national electorate, will probably be the kingmaker. Erdoğan's ultra-nationalist (and anti-Kurdish) policies have distanced Kurdish voters from his AKP, although Islamist Kurds still have a tendency to vote for him.
A new spiral of terror attacks may make Turks feel they must unite behind their president. Billions of dollars flowing unofficially into the Turkish economy, from friendly countries like Qatar and Russia, may make starving Turks feel like they will soon be better off.
Alternatively, Erdoğan could be tempted to manipulate the election result.
What happens if Erdoğan loses the presidential election by a narrow margin, and the AKP and MHP lose their parliamentary majority -- a total end of the Erdoğan era, in other words? A near civil war.
Erdoğan's violent loyalists will blame the defeat on a foreign plot, accusing the CIA, the Mossad, you name it.
In every post-June 2023 scenario, Turkey just looks like a slow-sinking ship.
Since 2002, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has not lost a single parliamentary, municipal or presidential election. The dream story, however, may be over in June 2023 when Turks will vote in twin presidential and parliamentary elections. Pictured: Erdoğan casts his ballot at a polling station on November 1, 2015, in Istanbul. (Photo by Gokhan Tan/Getty Images)
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's Islamist president, has been invincible since he burst on the political scene three decades ago. In 1994, he was elected mayor of Istanbul, Turkey's biggest city. In 2002, he was elected prime minister and, in 2014, president of Turkey. Since 2002, he has not lost a single parliamentary, municipal or presidential election. The dream story, however, may be over in June 2023 when Turks will vote in twin presidential and parliamentary elections.
Turks are suffering. According to the findings of the pollster Optimar, 76.6% of Turks think their top problems are inflation and unemployment.
The country's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) fell from its peak in 2013 of $958 billion, to $815 billion in 2021, bringing down per capita GDP from $12,615 to $9,587.
Turkey's official annual inflation climbed to a fresh 24-year high of 80% in August – though ENAG, an independent research organization, estimates the true annual inflation rate at 181% for the same period.
Recent research by an independent pollster, Yöneylem Sosyal Araştırmalar Merkezi, revealed that the sharp economic downturn, a direct result of Erdoğan's mismanagement and foreign policy mistakes that have isolated Turkey, may do what his political opponents have failed to do until now.
The poll found that Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) would win 29.5% of the national vote if there were elections tomorrow, behind, for the first time, the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), which would win 29.7%. Erdoğan's political ally, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) would win a mere 6.4% of the vote, bringing the support for the ruling alliance up to 35.9%. CHP's main ally, The Good Party (IYI) would win 13.5%, lifting the opposition bloc to 43.2%.
Yöneylem's poll also found that 63% of respondents say Turkey is being "badly governed," and 58.7% say that they "would never vote for Erdoğan." Only 33.3% of the respondents said they would vote for Erdoğan while 55.6% said they would vote for the opposition candidate.
The numbers predict an easy win for the opposition and a historical defeat for Erdoğan. Clearly, 2023 will be the first election since 2022 in which Erdoğan is not the clear favorite. But a smooth, democratic transfer of power is unlikely.
Six opposition parties, CHP, IYI and four small groupings with different ideologies, have come together to pick a joint presidential candidate against Erdoğan. The most likely candidate will be CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a social democrat, although the opposition bloc has not yet announced a candidate. Various opinion polls put Kılıçdaroğlu's approval rating far below Erdoğan's. Although the opposition bloc seems to be more united than at any time under Erdoğan's rule, the alliance also shows signs of fragility. Two parties in the opposition are former close allies of Erdoğan, a former prime minister and deputy prime minister. One ally is ideologically Islamist.
In this complex picture, Turkey's Kurdish minority, representing 11%-13% of the national electorate, will probably be the kingmaker. Erdoğan's ultra-nationalist (and anti-Kurdish) policies have distanced Kurdish voters from his AKP, although Islamist Kurds still have a tendency to vote for him.
Erdoğan will not go down without a fight. And that "fight" may mean many unpleasant scenarios. Some small-scale hit-and-run operations against Kurdish targets in northern Syria can be portrayed by the Erdoğan-controlled media (90% of all) as heroic military stories. A lot of barking (but no real biting) over the Aegean Sea may hit Turkish headlines, making nationalistic Turks feel proud of their president. A new spiral of terror attacks may make Turks feel they must unite behind their president. Billions of dollars flowing unofficially into the Turkish economy, from friendly countries like Qatar and Russia, may make starving Turks feel like they will soon be better off.
Alternatively, Erdoğan could be tempted to manipulate the election results. He did so in critical local elections in 2019, when an opposition candidate won the Istanbul mayoral race by a margin of 13,000 votes. Erdoğan annulled the election results and ordered a rerun. In the renewed election, the opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoğlu, won by a margin of 800,000 votes.
What will happen in post-June 2023 Turkey? Too early to say. But a few safe, innocent assumptions will not do any harm.
Erdoğan, as a political brand, is much stronger than his party, the AKP. If there were elections tomorrow, the AKP and MHP would most probably lose their parliamentary majority to opposition parties. The critical question is: What happens if Erdoğan wins the presidential election but the AKP and its allies lose their majority in parliament? The answer is chaos. Erdoğan won't be able to pass laws in parliament. He can try to rule by issuing decrees. But that will not be sustainable. He would be forced into new elections.
A more critical question: What happens if Erdoğan loses the presidential election by a narrow margin, and the AKP and MHP lose their parliamentary majority -- a total end of the Erdoğan era, in other words? A near civil war.
Erdoğan's violent loyalists will blame the defeat on a foreign plot, accusing the CIA, the Mossad, you name it. They will take to the streets to attack the enemy: secular, anti-Erdoğan Turks. The AKP has millions of militant party members across the country, organized under institutional names like the Ottoman Hearths. It also has a strong bond with the military contractor company SADAT, established by retired Islamist officers. SADAT is often accused of training paramilitary groups in Syria and Libya.
Erdoğan has long been preparing for the doomsday scenario. In October 2016, Turkey's Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) issued a circular for the formation of "youth branches" to be associated with the country's tens of thousands of mosques. Initially, the youth branches would be formed in 1,500 mosques. Under the plan, by 2021, 20,000 mosques would have youth branches and finally 45,000 mosques would have them. Secular Turks feared the youth branches might turn into Erdoğan's "mosque militia," like the Hitler Youth in Nazi Germany.
In every post-June 2023 scenario, Turkey just looks like a slow-sinking ship.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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How Long-standing Iranian Disinformation Tactics Target Protests
Allan Hassaniyan/The Washington Institute/November 01/2022
After decades of global and domestic disinformation campaigns, the Iranian regime has only doubled down on media manipulation in response to recent protests.
This week, Tehran released its accusations against the two journalists-- Niloofar Hamedi and Elaheh Mohammadi—who are being detained in Evin prison. The Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and intelligence wing of the IRGC issued a joint release accusing the two journalists of allowing the CIA to organize their reporting and “laying the groundwork for the intensification of external pressures.” The accusations themselves are absurd, but help to highlight the narratives Tehran consistently turns to in order to delegitimize and downplay dissent within the country.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) frequently represents itself as a major target and victim of political conspiracy and anti-Iran disinformation campaigns. However, these repeated claims and the contexts in which they are made serve to prove that Iran itself is a hub for fake news and disinformation, especially those targeting other states and its own society. Since its establishment in 1979, the IRI has consistently subjected its own people to media manipulation, and Iranian state media—including the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) service, which essentially has a media monopoly—has functioned as a weapon of mass suppression of information.
Right now, both state media outlets in Iran and Persian diaspora platforms around the globe have been falsely representing the current mass protests in peripheral regions such as Kurdistan, Khuzestan, and Baluchistan as “separatist” in nature. This narrative has allowed the regime to discredit and divide the protestors and to justify its use of extreme violence in suppressing them.
As has been the case in the past, spreading such fake news about internal protests—and labeling them as “separatist activities”—represents an attempt by the regime to destroy any manifestations of nascent unity or solidarity among protestors and the Iranian public at large. Specifically in the central regions and provinces of Iran—populated mainly by the Persian Iranians—the regime hopes to sway public opinion with the argument that Iran’s territorial integrity is endangered.
In the absence of freedom of the press, critical assessments of the information distributed by state media are a difficult task. According to the 2022 World Press Freedom Index of Reporters Without Borders, Iran is among the world’s ten worst countries for press freedom and “one of the most repressive ones for journalists.” However, their most recent coverage of these mass protests against repression have made more obvious just how prevalent and insidious these narratives are.
A History of Disinformation
Iran’s disinformation strategy is as old as the regime itself. As an ideological apparatus of the regime, state media institutions like the IRIB have served to produce and impose the authority and values of the regime on the Iranian people. Decades of this propaganda has naturally raised the Iranian public’s antipathy toward the state’s all-encompassing strategy, with some Iranians viewing it as a “national shame.”
In the age of digital and social media, the creation of thousands of fake websites and fake Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter accounts is another tool with which the IRI has spread fake news and disinformation internationally—a tool which IRI officials openly admit and discuss using. For example, Ruhollah Momen Nasab—the former head of the Digital Media Centre within the IRI’s Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance, an outspoken opponent of free internet access and a staunch supporter of the restrictive “Law for the Protection of Cyberspace Users”—has proudly referred to Iran’s disinformation network as an element of psychological warfare. IRI officials have even boasted of the development of “cyber battalions” to manipulate the global narratives on Twitter and other platforms.
Regarding its domestic opponents, the IRI has conducted a similar campaign of psychological warfare. The IRIB, for example, takes advantage of a vast network of security, intelligence, military, and judicial organizations” to facilitate the “silencing, shaming, demonizing, vilifying, intimidating, punishing, and even torturing” of internal opponents, according to a report from the International Federation for Human Rights.
Indeed, the IRIB closely collaborates with the Ministry of Intelligence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, broadcasting the likely coerced confessions of at least 355 people. While targets of the IRI’s disinformation are diverse, the main goal is to control public opinion—pitting groups against each other and tarnishing the reputations of activists and protesters.
The regime’s hate and disinformation campaigns especially villainize minority communities, including Iran’s Arabs, Azeris, Baha’i, Baluchis, Kurds, and Turkmens. In a recent example, four suspected members or sympathizers of Komala—a leftist Kurdish political party—were labelled in the media as Israel-affiliated terrorists in August despite little evidencel.
Over time, the regime’s targeting strategy has institutionalized chronic racism in the public and a phobia towards the democratic demands of non-Persian, non-Shia religious and ethnic groups. This phobia for non-Persian groups runs so deep, even anti-regime media outlets in the Persian diaspora tend to employ it, too, targeting Kurdish commentators and activists, for example, with unfounded questions about separatist agendas and outside influencers. Unfortunately, such disinformation campaigns and racist rhetoric have only worsened during the recent wave of protests across Iran.
Disinformation and Today’s Protests
By the second week of protests, it became clear that the regime was employing disinformation strategies online to try to manipulate the uprising into an armed revolt, a shift which would justify further violence by the IRI and cement regime support. Across social media, fake accounts and state-run outlets disseminated fake news and videos apparently showing Kurdish armed groups—namely the Peshmerga—among protesters. Other videos explicitly showed Iranian security forces dressed as Peshmerga and harassing the locals in Kurdish cities. And despite the regime’s decades-long campaign to destroy traces of Kurdish resistance and militarize the Kurdistan province, the regime has now actually attempted to force the real Kurdish Peshmerga from their remote bases in Iraqi Kurdistan to urban areas in order to join the protests, giving the impression that protestors have turned to violence and that the regime must respond with full, brutal force.
While disinformation runs rampant, accurate reporting of the protests and the regime’s violent crackdown has been hard to come by, especially with the IRI widely disrupting internet access across the country only one week in and due to its systemic targeting of independent journalists reporting on the protests. These massive internet blackouts have prevented protestors from voicing their dissent, coordinating their activities, or sharing their experiences at the hands of the IRGC and other regime forces.
Although the death of Jina “Mahsa” Amini on September 16 initially sparked a sense of solidarity among the Iranian people against the regime, the IRI has only ramped up its disinformation and fake news strategies in response, directly challenging the public’s solidarity. If the regime continues to successfully label the uprisings as a separatist revolt, preying on the already-fragile tensions between Persian and non-Persian communities while suppressing any real information in public discourse, the unprecedented unity observed during this wave of protests will be put to the ultimate test. In the days and weeks ahead, the Iranian people must prove that their unity is enduring, not temporary.

The Islamic State Attacks the Islamic Republic
Aaron Y. Zelin/The Washington Institute/November 01/2022
On October 26, the Islamic State (IS) conducted an attack in Iran for the first time since September 2018. Unfolding at the Shah Cheragh shrine in Shiraz, the shooting reportedly killed fifteen people and injured at least forty. Afterward, an IS statement claiming responsibility for the incident declared that its purpose was to “let the rawafidh [rejectionists, a derogatory term for Shia Muslims] know that the companions [of the Prophet Muhammad] have descendants who inherit revenge generation after generation.” This message was reemphasized a day later in the Sunni jihadist group’s weekly al-Naba newsletter, which included threats to conduct further attacks inside Iran.
Not a False Flag
Afew days after the shooting, IS released a photo and video of the attacker, Abu Aisha al-Omari, taken before the incident. The image shows his face while the video shows him pledging baya (allegiance) to the leader of IS, undermining theories that the attack was a false flag operation conducted by the Iranian regime. And earlier today, authorities arrested an individual who aided him and was allegedly planning his own attack in the future.
The shooting also followed several months’ worth of concerted threats issued against Iran by Wilayat Khorasan, an IS branch based mainly in Afghanistan. Although IS has successfully attacked the Islamic Republic just three times in the past six years (including the latest shooting), this has not been for want of trying—since 2016, the Iranian regime has publicly announced that it has foiled eleven IS plots (see below).
As for the timing of the attack, IS statements suggest that it had nothing to do with the ongoing mass protest movement in Iran, despite falling on the fortieth day of mourning for Mahsa Amini, the young woman whose death sparked the uprising. Indeed, the group would hardly be inclined to support a movement born from staunch rejection of rules regarding women’s religious garb. Rather, its stated justifications for the attack have focused on pure sectarian hatred against Shia, whom IS adherents view as not real Muslims. In that sense, one cannot rule out the possibility that the attack’s timing had a tactical purpose, namely, to exploit the Shia theocratic regime’s potential instability amid the mass uprising.
Previous Claimed Attacks
The first claimed IS attack in Iran occurred on June 7, 2017, when two cells conducted simultaneous strikes in Tehran. One cell consisted of suicide bombers who detonated themselves near the mausoleum of regime founder Ruhollah Khomeini, with IS describing the target as a “pagan shrine.” According to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence, the two perpetrators had previously fought for IS in Iraq and Syria.
The second cell consisted of gunmen who opened fire inside the parliamentary building in Tehran. In total, the twin attacks reportedly killed twelve people and wounded forty-six.
The group’s only other previously claimed attack in Iran occurred in Ahvaz on September 22, 2018, when gunmen fired on a military parade held to honor the army, the Basij militia, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Twenty-five people were killed and another seventy injured.
Iran’s Domestic Fight Against IS
Iran has played a highly visible role in helping Shia militias and the Assad regime fight IS elements in Iraq and Syria, in parallel with the U.S.-led coalition’s much broader efforts to combat the group since 2014. Less well known are Tehran’s various efforts to thwart the group’s activities on Iranian soil:
June 2016: Authorities arrest ten IS members for plotting attacks in Tehran and other cities, seizing around 100 kilograms of explosives intended for use in car and suicide bombings. Two months prior, Iranian intelligence minister Mahmoud Alavi had noted that members of the group based in the IS “capital” of Raqqa, Syria, were planning to conduct attacks inside the Islamic Republic.
August 2016: Iranian security forces kill three IS cell members in Kermanshah. One of these operatives, Abu Aisha al-Kurdi, had allegedly served as the group’s “emir” in Iran. Authorities also confiscate a weapons cache and explosive belts.
February 2017: Eight IS cell members are arrested in Tehran for plotting to sabotage rallies marking the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Kalashnikov rifles and other equipment are seized.
June 2017: Forty-one individuals are arrested in various provinces following the aforementioned mausoleum and parliament attacks in Tehran. Authorities reportedly seize “lots of documents and weaponry.”
June 2017: At least fifty people are arrested in Kermanshah province for allegedly plotting attacks against Shia religious centers. According to the provincial prosecutor, security forces seized suicide belts, electronic detonators, and other weapons from the detainees.
August 2017: The Intelligence Ministry detains twenty-seven individuals linked to IS for allegedly planning terrorist operations in various religious cities.
September 2017: IRGC forces arrest an IS member in Andisheh who had planned to conduct a suicide attack during the Ashura holiday. According to an IRGC commander, the suspect had previously fought for IS in Syria.
January 2018: The IRGC claims to detain sixteen IS suspects in northwest Iran after clashing with a group of fighters who had crossed the border from Iraq. Three IS members are reportedly killed in the clash, while two others flee the area.
July 2018: Minister Alavi announces that security forces in southwest Iran have arrested four IS suspects who were planning attacks. He also notes that the cell’s head has a brother who was killed while fighting for IS in Syria.
October 2018: Authorities arrest a member of the Iranian military following the aforementioned parade attack in Ahvaz.
February 2019: The Intelligence Ministry announces that it has busted two IS cells comprising thirteen individuals for plotting to attack Sunni clergymen in Iran’s Kurdistan province.
The lack of further attacks or security interdictions after February 2019 is not particularly surprising, since IS lost its last sliver of territory in Baghuz, Syria, that March. Dedicating resources to external operations became less of a focus for IS central once the need arose to rebuild its insurgency in its core territories of Iraq and Syria.
Recent Threats from the Afghan Branch of IS
Since its founding, IS has been virulently anti-Shia and anti-Iran. For instance, one of the main factors that led it to split from al-Qaeda back in 2013 was the latter’s reticence to attack Iran (reportedly because some al-Qaeda leaders were based there). The IS franchise Wilayat Khorasan has carried on this tradition inside Afghanistan since its founding in 2015, repeatedly targeting the country’s Hazara Shia community. The group tends to view Hazaras as an extension of Iran, since many members of this community are refugees originally from Afghanistan who were recruited by Tehran to join Liwa Fatemiyoun, an Iranian-backed Shia brigade that fought against IS in Syria.
The Taliban has attempted to reassure the Hazara community since taking power in Afghanistan last year, spurring IS to accuse the new government of being “protectors of shirk [polytheism].” Likewise, Kabul’s efforts to reestablish relations with Iran and the broader international community have been a talking point for both IS core and Wilayat Khorasan, with al-Naba newsletter derisively calling the Taliban the “Emirate of Embassies” in September.
The Afghan branch has also been more active in threatening Iran and other countries in the region over the past few months since creating its own media outlet, al-Azaim. In June, for example, issue eight of its Voice of Khorasan magazine warned that “very soon the blood of Iranian majus [a derogatory term for Zoroastrians] will be shed on their streets.” Similarly, the October 17 issue emphasized the pervasiveness of Iran’s plans to back different actors in the region—Baathists in Syria, Hamas in Palestine, and the Taliban in Afghanistan—with “manifestations of blatant kufr [unbelief].”
Meanwhile, IS central media outlets have increasingly been translating Arabic content into Farsi and establishing auxiliary Farsi accounts online to spread the group’s ideology and views on current events. These accounts have gone into overdrive since the October 26 attack.
Limited Policy Options
Given that Iran is one of America’s biggest adversaries, Washington has few options for addressing the above matters beyond continuing to condemn all IS attacks no matter where they take place. At the same time, U.S. officials should warn Tehran not to use the Shiraz attack as a pretext for further tarnishing or cracking down on the country’s legitimate protest movement, which has nothing to do with IS activities or ideology. Of course, even this limited option would be largely symbolic—Tehran is unlikely to listen to anything Washington has to say about its internal unrest, and many in the streets will not be satisfied with any outcome short of toppling the regime. Either way, IS views both the protesters and the regime as apostates.
*Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at The Washington Institute and founder of the website Jihadology.net.

Houthis’ organic links with IRGC and Hezbollah revealed
Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg/Arab News/November 01, 2022
The Terrorism Combating Center at West Point military college in the US published an important study last month on Houthi links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. More countries are now mulling listing the IRGC and the Houthis as terrorist organizations, Hezbollah having been already designated as such by most nations. This study should help in making these decisions, as it documents how the three groups have worked closely to keep Yemen, the region and the world at bay by igniting wars and stoking violence throughout the Middle East.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday that Germany and the EU were examining “how we can list the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization,” reiterating what she said the previous week about launching another sanctions package. The IRGC is implicated in suppressing protests in Iran, where hundreds of civilians have died over the past eight weeks, and it is also active throughout the region, including in Yemen.
The meticulously documented 70-page study, titled “The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah,’” leaves no doubt about the organic ties between the three entities and warns of their growing cooperation. It demonstrates how the Houthis have moved toward becoming a “very close clone of the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah military and security systems, with the birth of a Basij-type mobilization and internal security system.” The risk that a “southern Hezbollah” might emerge is arguably now a fact on the ground, the authors conclude.
By refusing to renew the truce that expired on Oct. 2, the Houthis have managed to halt progress toward a negotiated settlement or a permanent ceasefire in Yemen. Last month, they threatened to attack oil companies operating in Yemen, followed by attacks on oil shipping facilities near the government-controlled port of Mukalla on the Arabian Sea. They have thus remained a threat to the stability of Yemen and to regional security. The stability of Red Sea shipping lanes and the security of international energy supplies are also in jeopardy due to Houthi threats.
The authors demonstrate in detail how the Houthis morphed from a heterogeneous, decentralized and non-cohesive group to a centralized and coercive organization with a “totalitarian mindset,” using violence and oppression to dominate the northern tribes and enlist them in the Houthi fight to control Yemen, bolstered by over a decade of support from the IRGC and Hezbollah.
The study draws parallels between Hezbollah’s takeover of Lebanese politics and the Houthi coup of 2014, including some documented exchanges between the two groups on military strategy.
The study also documents the growing role of the IRGC’s Quds Force and Hezbollah during the years in which the Houthi movement became an effective fighting force on the battlefield, from the fourth Sa’da war in 2007 to the present day. Houthi commanders drew heavily on the IRGC and Hezbollah’s politico-military models. For example, the Houthi Jihad Council is set up according to the Hezbollah template. Appointing “jihad assistants,” which has become an organic part of Houthi military strategy, follows the Quds Force modus operandi, adopting the same mentoring model as Iraqi terrorist group Kata’ib Hezbollah.
The Houthi military has adopted many features of its IRGC and Hezbollah counterparts, including their top-level command and control architecture, preventive security arrangements, information operations, training, covert procurement, military industrialization, drone and missile forces, and guerrilla naval operations, to name just a few.
The authors also study the political influence of the IRGC and Hezbollah over Houthi decision-making and conclude that the very close “alignment of ideology and goals” between the two external groups and the Houthi leaders makes it easy to influence Houthi decisions without the need for coercion or pressure. These relationships are not driven by mere necessity or taken to unintended levels by the war in Yemen, but rather were highly intentional relationships of choice from the outset, based on a commonality of goals and ideology.
The relationships are “exceedingly strong and stable,” according to the authors. Iran considers the Houthis as an important asset and a developing clone of Hezbollah, which serves as the main regional operational arm of the Quds Force. Tehran appears to hold them in higher regard than similar Iran-allied militias in Iraq because it considers them to be “more capable, cohesive and disciplined.” Similarly, Hezbollah favors the Houthis over those militias.
If the facts are so clear and reliably documented, why are the organic Houthi-IRGC and Houthi-Hezbollah relationships not widely known to Houthi supporters? The answer is that the group’s leaders are keen on hiding the extent of these connections and have kept their contacts strictly hidden. They are carried out exclusively through leader Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi and the Jihad Council of very close advisers. Houthi leaders are interested in keeping “plausible deniability” about these links for as long as they can for reputational reasons and to protect themselves against accusations of dual loyalty. That veneer of independence, however, is wearing thin.
The authors find it probable that Iran has built up “sufficient goodwill and credit with the Houthi leadership” that it can selectively call on the Houthis to serve Iranian interests in ways that may incur new costs or difficulties for the Houthis. Tight secrecy surrounding the Houthi-Iran relationship and the “centralized totalitarian” structure of the group have been used to hide direct, Iranian-dictated strategic or tactical decisions made by the Houthis.
Some have argued that the Houthis’ relationship with Iran is not that of a proxy, but regardless of the label the authors argue that theirs is “a strong, deep-rooted alliance that is underpinned by tight ideological affinity and geopolitical alignment.” Close enough, especially if you consider the direct links between the Houthis and Hezbollah, which does not deny its proxy links with Iran and the IRGC.
These relationships were highly intentional relationships of choice from the outset, based on a commonality of goals and ideology.
The authors also argue that even if a key Houthi supporter of close relations with Iran and Hezbollah, such as Abdul-Malik Al-Houthi, were to disappear from the scene, there is now a “broad-based set of leaders whose whole ideological and political upbringing will predispose them to continue this beneficial and warm relationship.”
This timely study should make it easy to make the necessary decisions to list the Houthis as a terrorist group. In January of this year, the UN Security Council condemned “in the strongest terms the heinous terrorist attacks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on 17 January 2022, as well as in other sites in Saudi Arabia, that were claimed and committed by the Houthis.” In February, UNSC Resolution 2624 described the Houthis as a “terrorist group.” This resolution was adopted under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, making it binding on all nations. It is thus surprising that some countries and international organizations still find it difficult or inconvenient to act on this information and the UNSC mandate to take proper action against the Houthis.
*Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the GCC assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation, and a columnist for Arab News. The views expressed in this piece are personal and do not necessarily represent GCC views. Twitter: @abuhamad1

UK’s Conservative Party no longer a bastion of white privilege
Zaid M. Belbagi/Arab News/November 01, 2022
As British Hindus decorated their homes with lights this Diwali, ushering in propensity and good tidings for the year to come, they also welcomed the UK’s first Hindu prime minister, Rishi Sunak. A previous chancellor and leadership contender, Sunak’s rise was not a stroke of good luck, but rather he was fast-tracked by a Conservative Party that has spent the last decade making itself more diverse and reflective of British society. Despite major crises and political upset, the party now lurches toward its 13th year in power, with the opposition Labour Party having consistently lost the opportunity to position itself as the party of ethnic minorities. Something has changed in what is arguably the world’s oldest political party. Once a bastion of white privilege, the party fielded its first Black secretary of state only last year. However, despite a perceived hesitance to reform itself, it now boasts an Asian prime minister and home secretary, foreign and trade secretaries from Black backgrounds and a party chairman who was born in Baghdad. This, all the while, as the Sunak Cabinet is not even as diverse as the previous two, which had greater numbers of Black, Asian and minority ethnic ministers. Nonetheless, the party has clearly made strides to become more representative, with the highest office of state now in the hands of a man whose family emigrated to the UK in the 1960s.
The Cabinet now leads the country in respect to diversity in a way that other institutions do not. The civil service is yet to be led by a woman and the armed forces by somebody from an ethnic minority background, while the Church of England remains an incredibly white institution. The Tories’ transformation is in part owing to the policies of former Prime Minister David Cameron, who began forcing infamously independent local party associations to embrace female and ethnic minority candidates.
Despite the Labour Party consistently doing much better among ethnic minority voters, the Conservative Party has employed a more long-term strategy. By fielding ethnic minority candidates in safe (mainly white) constituencies, it has shown a commitment to making the party more diverse.
Looking at leading ethnic minority Tories through a broader historical perspective, however, does make the current trend less surprising. Though Britain is a world away from its empire, its long and complicated imperial past does support the Conservative Party’s makeup. By virtue of empire, the UK has connections with diverse territories and peoples, many of whom make up an important part of modern British society.
Sunak’s grandparents were born in British India and his father was born and raised in the Colony and Protectorate of Kenya (present-day Kenya). Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s family also has roots in British India and Kenya. Trade Minister Kemi Badenoch’s parents are from Nigeria, which was a British possession, and Party Chairman Nadhim Zahawi’s parents were born during the British mandate of Iraq.
Today’s diverse Cabinet is not only reflective of British society, but also of the UK’s association with geographic regions whose people often saw themselves as part of a wider British project and in administrative terms quite literally as British overseas citizens. Where the Labour Party’s narrative of ethnic minorities focuses on them being the product of the worst excesses of empire, the Conservative Party has positioned itself as the party of strivers. In the same way that a grocer’s daughter, Margaret Thatcher, became one of the world’s first female heads of government, the son of Punjabi immigrants is now prime minister. However, the diversity of the Cabinet does not reflect a diversity of educational or class backgrounds. What Braverman, Sunak and a total of 45 percent of the Cabinet share is that they graduated from either Oxford or Cambridge. Ethnic minority Conservative ministers may not have much in common with ordinary voters, but they are better prepared for high office.
Though the party could not hope of surviving electorally had it remained the London pastime of country squires, it must also take into account that the demographics of London and the South East are by no means present throughout the country. Although 16 percent of the Cabinet is of an ethnic minority background, nationally such groups only make up 13 percent of the population. In Scotland and Wales, ethnic minority communities are even smaller, standing at below 5 percent.
In the same way that it led the way with female leadership, it is doing so once again by embracing multiculturalism.
Despite the clear questions around educational exclusivity, Britain’s new more diverse politics is something to be welcomed. In neighboring France, which is home to Europe’s largest Muslim population, a female president — let alone one from the Maghreb — is almost inconceivable. In the same way that the Conservative Party led the way with female leadership, it is doing so once again by embracing multiculturalism. Nevertheless, for a party that has seen three chairmen in two years, it would do well to focus on competence over background, given how incompetence has led to the collapse of its last two governments.
*Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC. Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid