English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For November 01/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
My child, do not regard lightly the
discipline of the Lord, or lose heart when you are punished by him
Letter to the Hebrews 12/01-13/:”Since we are
surrounded by so great a cloud of witnesses, let us also lay aside every weight
and the sin that clings so closely, and let us run with perseverance the race
that is set before us, looking to Jesus the pioneer and perfecter of our faith,
who for the sake of the joy that was set before him endured the cross,
disregarding its shame, and has taken his seat at the right hand of the throne
of God. Consider him who endured such hostility against himself from sinners, so
that you may not grow weary or lose heart. In your struggle against sin you have
not yet resisted to the point of shedding your blood. And you have forgotten the
exhortation that addresses you as children ‘My child, do not regard lightly the
discipline of the Lord, or lose heart when you are punished by him; for the Lord
disciplines those whom he loves, and chastises every child whom he accepts.’
Endure trials for the sake of discipline. God is treating you as children; for
what child is there whom a parent does not discipline? If you do not have that
discipline in which all children share, then you are illegitimate and not his
children. Moreover, we had human parents to discipline us, and we respected
them. Should we not be even more willing to be subject to the Father of spirits
and live?For they disciplined us for a short time as seemed best to them, but he
disciplines us for our good, in order that we may share his holiness. Now,
discipline always seems painful rather than pleasant at the time, but later it
yields the peaceful fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it.
Therefore lift your drooping hands and strengthen your weak knees, and make
straight paths for your feet, so that what is lame may not be put out of joint,
but rather be healed.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on
October 31-November 01/2021
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman discusses Lebanese diplomatic rift with GCC
leaders
UAE instructs citizens in Lebanon to return home amid ongoing crisis
KSA Slams Iran 'Dominance' as Qatar, Oman Urge Calm with Lebanon
Saudi FM calls for Lebanese system to be freed from ‘Hezbollah’s domination’
Saudi FM: No crisis with Lebanon, but rather crisis in Lebanon due to Iran's
proxies
Saudi-Iran 'Proxy Wars' Play Out in Embattled Lebanon
Al-Rahi Urges Aoun, Miqati to 'Take Decisive Step' to Defuse Gulf Row
Kordahi Says His Resignation is 'Out of the Question'
Israel’s army launches week-long simulation of full-scale war with Hezbollah
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
October 31-November 01/2021
We Must Attack Iran Now,’ Insists Israeli Lawmaker
US will respond to Iran’s actions, ‘price’ to pay for nuclear talks failure:
Biden
American B-1B bomber flies over Mideast amid Iran tensions
U.S. says it is in talks with allies on getting Iran to agree to nuclear deal
Saudi FM says Palestinian state before Israel normalization
Three Rockets Hit near Baghdad Green Zone
Iran Suspects Israel and U.S. behind Fuel Cyber Attack
Saudi-Iran 'Proxy Wars' Play Out in Embattled Lebanon
Sudanese Anti-Coup Protesters Barricade Streets
Thousands march in Sudan against coup, UN works to facilitate civilian-military
dialogue
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
October 31-November 01/2021
The EU's Dangerous Policy Towards Iran's Mullahs/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone
Institute/October 30/2021
France: Can this Journalist Become President and Save France?/Guy Millière/Gatestone
Institute/October 31, 2021
Visions of Destruction and Construction in the Iranian and Gulf Strategies/Raghida
Dergham/October 31, 2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on October 31-November 01/2021
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman discusses
Lebanese diplomatic rift with GCC leaders
Reem Krimly, Al Arabiya English/31 October ,2021
Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz on Sunday thanked Bahrain’s King Hamad
bin Isa Al Khalifa and Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad Al Sabah for the
measures their countries took in the diplomatic rift with Lebanon, the official
Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported. This came in a phone call the Saudi king held
with Bahrain’s King and Kuwait’s Emir, according to SPA. During the call, King
Salman “expressed his appreciation for the measures taken by Kuwait towards the
statement made by the Lebanese Minister of Information, which reflects the
solidarity of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries,” SPA reported.
Bahrain’s King Hamad “reiterated the depth of relations” between Bahrain and
Saudi Arabia and the cohesion of the GCC states. For his part, the Emir of
Kuwait Sheikh Nawaf said: “The measures taken by Kuwait affirm the unity of the
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.”Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries
expelled Lebanese envoys in a diplomatic spat, following critical comments about
the Arab Coalition military intervention in Yemen by Lebanon’s Information
Minister George Kordahi.
UAE instructs citizens in Lebanon to return home amid
ongoing crisis
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/31 October ,2021
The UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs instructed its citizens in Lebanon to
return home amid the ongoing Gulf-Lebanese crisis. “In light of current events
and based on the decision to ban UAE citizens from traveling to Lebanon and the
decision to recall UAE diplomats from Lebanon, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
calls on all citizens present in Lebanon to return to the UAE as soon as
possible,” the ministry said in a statement. Lebanon’s Information Minister
George Kordahi sparked a diplomatic crisis with Gulf countries because of his
comments on Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s involvement in the Yemen war. Kordahi
said on Sunday resigning was “out of the question”, insisting that his comments
were his personal views made before he became a cabinet member.Saudi Arabia
expelled Lebanon’s envoy from the country and banned all Lebanese imports.
Bahrain and Kuwait followed suit, and the UAE withdrew its diplomats from
Beirut.
KSA Slams Iran 'Dominance' as Qatar, Oman Urge Calm with Lebanon
Agence France Presse/October 31, 2021
Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has blamed his country’s row
with Lebanon on Hizbullah and Iran's "dominance" over Lebanese politics. "There
is no crisis with Lebanon but a crisis in Lebanon because of Iranian dominance,"
he told Al-Arabiya television, adding: "Hizbullah's dominance of the political
system in Lebanon worries us." The kingdom, which wields strong influence over
many of the smaller Gulf states, has stepped back from its former ally Lebanon
in recent years, angered by the influence of Hizbullah. Qatar -- which in
January this year repaired a rift of its own with Saudi Arabia -- and fellow GCC
member Oman meanwhile urged restraint and dialogue between Lebanon and the Gulf
countries. "The (Qatari) foreign ministry calls on the Lebanese government to
take the necessary measures... urgently and decisively, to calm the situation
and to mend the rift," it said.
Oman said all parties should strive "to work to avoid an escalation, and address
differences through dialogue."The row has been sparked by a Lebanese minister's
criticism of the Riyadh-led military intervention in Yemen. It has seen Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain expel Lebanese envoys and recall their own
ambassadors. The UAE has meanwhile withdrawn its diplomats from Beirut while
Riyadh has also banned all Lebanese imports. In his remarks -- recorded in
August before becoming minister but aired on Monday -- Information Minister
George Kordahi called Yemen's seven-year war "futile" and said it was "time for
it to end."He said Yemen's Huthi rebels were "defending themselves... against an
external aggression," adding that "homes, villages, funerals and weddings were
being bombed" by the Saudi-led coalition. The Huthis are backed by Saudi
arch-rival Iran, which has significant influence in Lebanon, where it backs the
powerful Hizbullah.
Saudi FM calls for Lebanese system to be freed from ‘Hezbollah’s domination’
The Arab Weekly/October 31/2021
DUBAI--Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Saturday the latest crisis with
Lebanon has its origins in a Lebanese political setup that reinforces the
dominance of the Iran-backed Hezbollah armed group and continues to allow
endemic instability. Saudi Arabia and three other Gulf countries expelled
Lebanese envoys in a diplomatic spat that risks adding to Lebanon’s economic
crisis, following critical comments about the Saudi-led military intervention in
Yemen by Lebanon’s Information Minister George Kordahi. “I think the issue is
far broader than the current situation,” Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told
Reuters. “I think it’s important that the government in Lebanon or the Lebanese
establishment forges a path forward that frees Lebanon from the current
political construct, which reinforces the dominance of Hezbollah.”He said this
setup “is weakening state institutions within Lebanon, in a way that makes
Lebanon continue to process in a direction against the interests of the people
of Lebanon.” The row has triggered calls by some Lebanese politicians for the
resignation of Kordahi, who has refused to resign or apologise for comments
where he described the Saudi-led campaign against Iran-backed Houthis as an
“aggression”. “We have no opinion about the government in Lebanon. We have no
opinion as to whether it stays or goes, this is up to the Lebanese people,” the
minister, speaking from Rome where he was attending the G20 summit, said.
Kordahi has been publicly backed by Hezbollah.
“Exploratory vein”
Saudi Arabia has shunned Lebanon for years because of the strong influence in
state affairs of Shia militant group Hezbollah, which it accuses of sending
fighters to Yemen and Syria and of promoting Iran’s regional agenda. Iran and
Saudi Arabia, the leading Shia and Sunni Muslim powers in the Middle East, have
been rivals for years but they launched a series of talks this year hoping to
defuse tensions. “We’ve had four rounds of talks so far. The talks are cordial
but remain in an exploratory vein. We continue to hope that they will produce
tangible progress … but so far, we have not made sufficient progress to be
optimistic,” Prince Faisal said. Asked if there will be another round of talks,
the minister said nothing had been scheduled, “but we are open to continue”. As
part of efforts to ease tensions, Teheran and Riyadh have engaged on how to end
the seven-year conflict in Yemen, where tens of thousands have been killed and
millions are at risk of starvation. The war has also strained relations between
Riyadh and its traditional ally Washington, as US President Joe Biden has said
that ending the war his top foreign policy priority but has yet to find ways to
pressure the Houthis to accept a peace settlement. The Biden administration
decision after its inauguration last January to halt “offensive” arms shipments
to Riyadh ha sent the “wrong signal” to the Houthis and disappointed the Saudis,
Gulf analysts say. “So I would disagree with that characterisation (of strained
relations). I think when it comes to Yemen, we with the US are on the same page,
we both support a comprehensive ceasefire, we both support a political process
to resolve the conflict,” Prince Faisal said. “I think it’s clear that the
kingdom is committed to a ceasefire and it’s up to the Houthis to decide to sign
on for that and we would not tie any discussions about our defensive
capabilities to a ceasefire.”
Saudi FM: No crisis with Lebanon, but rather crisis in
Lebanon due to Iran's proxies
Ismaeel Naar, Hussein Kneiber and Omar Elkatouri, Al Arabiya English/31 October
,2021
Prince Faisal bin Farhan said there is no crisis with Lebanon but rather a
crisis in the country due to the hegemony of Iran’s proxies, the Kingdom’s
foreign minister told Al Arabiya on the sidelines of the G20 summit. “The
problem is even bigger. The problem in Lebanon is the continued Hezbollah
dominance of the political system, and the continued inability of governments,
political officials and political leaders in Lebanon to take a way out of this
crisis and from this tunneled crisis,” he told Al Arabiya. “The crisis there is
not a crisis between us and Lebanon to some extent. There is a crisis in Lebanon
with the dominance of Iran's proxies over the scene, and this is what concerns
us, and this is what makes it useless to deal with Lebanon, and I do not think
for the Gulf states and the task now is that the leaders in Lebanon wake up and
seek a way out to bring Lebanon back to its place in the Arab world and this is
available and they are able if God wills it,” Prince Faisal added. Saudi Arabia
and other Gulf countries expelled Lebanese envoys in a diplomatic spat that
risks adding to Lebanon’s economic crisis, following critical comments about the
Arab Coalition military intervention in Yemen by Lebanon’s Information Minister
George Kordahi. On Yemen, Prince Faisal said the Kingdom is committed to its
initiative on bringing a comprehensive ceasefire and then a political dialogue,
but said the Iran-backed Houthi militia posed a roadblock toward achieving a
lasting peace deal. “The Kingdom is committed to what it has put forward. We
want to reach a comprehensive cease-fire immediately and then move on to
political dialogue. Unfortunately, the Houthis are still relying on a military
solution. The Houthis are still showing or presenting their narrow interests and
those of regional parties' over Yemen's interest,” he said.
The foreign minister also spoke during his interview with Al Arabiya’s Hussein
Kneiber on the Kingdom’s policies regarding the Palestinian conflict. “It has
never changed. What is important now is the return of talks between the
Palestinians and Israel to see a realistic and real path to the achievement of
comprehensive peace, including a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its
capital. Without this, we will not have real stability in the region. This is
our priority now,” he said.
Saudi-Iran 'Proxy Wars' Play Out in Embattled Lebanon
Agence France Presse/October 31/2021
Financially crippled Lebanon finds itself in a new tug-of-war between regional
kingpins Saudi Arabia and Iran after Riyadh and other wealthy Gulf states
expelled the Lebanese envoy, analysts say. The crisis erupted Friday when Saudi
Arabia gave Lebanon's ambassador 48 hours to leave the country, recalled its
envoy from Beirut and suspended all imports from Lebanon. The Saudi foreign
ministry said the measures were taken after "insulting" remarks made by a
Lebanese minister on the Yemen war, but also due to the influence of Lebanon's
Iran-backed Hizbullah. The group, it said, controls Lebanese ports and "hijacks"
the government's decision-making in Beirut. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain
and Kuwait were quick to follow suit. The crisis is a fresh blow to Lebanon, a
country in financial and political turmoil where a fragile government is
struggling to secure international aid, namely from wealthy Arab neighbors. But
remarks by Information Minister George Kordahi, in an interview recorded back in
August aired on Monday, slamming the Saudi-led military intervention against
Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen, undermined these efforts. Kordahi said the
Huthis were "defending themselves... against an external aggression," sparking
angry rebukes from Saudi Arabia and its allies and calls in Lebanon for his
resignation. Analyst Karim Bitar said Kordahi's remarks were just a trigger for
a looming geopolitical showdown. The escalation "has very little to do with what
this mediocre minister of information said... (and) everything to do with the
Saudi-Iranian tug-of-war that has been ongoing for the past few years."
'Battlefields' -
"Kordahi was only a pretext for something that was long in the making," he said.
Lebanon is "one of the battlefields between Iran and Saudi Arabia" along with
Syria, Yemen and Iraq, where the two regional rivals support opposing sides,
Bitar added. Riyadh's move also reflects the kingdom's determination to push
Lebanon "to take a harsher line on Hizbullah," he said. Hizbullah wields
considerable influence in Lebanon, where it holds seats in parliament, and has
been designated as a "terrorist" group by Saudi Arabia and much of the West.
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has said he "regrets" the Saudi decision, and urged
Riyadh to reconsider its move. He did not explicitly call for Kordahi's
resignation, but said he did not speak in the name of the government. He urged
the minister to "take into consideration Lebanon's national interest... in order
to appease ties with Gulf countries." Kordahi was nominated by the Marada
Movement, a party allied to Hizbullah and led by Maronite leader Suleiman
Franjieh. The minister has refused to apologize -- as both Hizbullah and
Franjieh rejected calls for his dismissal. With Lebanon in the grip of an
economic and financial crisis -- seen by the World Bank as one of the world's
worst since the 1850s -- the diplomatic row becomes all the more damaging.
'Paying the price' -
It comes as Sunni kingpin Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran have been
holding talks for months to ease tensions after a five-year rift. The
arch-rivals broke diplomatic ties in 2016 after protesters attacked Saudi
diplomatic missions in the Islamic republic following the kingdom's execution of
a revered Shiite cleric. Bitar said the latest crisis is also linked to these
negotiations between Riyadh and Tehran, with Lebanon "paying the price.""When
two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers and Lebanon for the umpteenth
time in its history is the grass that is suffering when these proxy wars become
more intense," he said. Lebanon's diplomatic fallout with Saudi Arabia, the UAE,
Bahrain and Kuwait also comes at a critical time for the small country. Miqati's
fragile government has not met for three weeks amid a campaign spearheaded by
Hizbullah to remove a judge investigating last year's devastating blast at
Beirut port, accusing him of political bias. "Lebanon needs a cabinet and gains
nothing by shooting itself in the foot as it finds itself in the midst of a
regional clash," said Michael Young, an analyst with the Malcolm H. Kerr
Carnegie Middle East Center. "Since the Saudis regard Lebanon as an Iranian
card, they feel it makes sense to behave toward the country" in its current
manner, he added on Twitter. But he warned that "by isolating Lebanon, they will
only ensure that Iran and its local proxies tighten their control" over the
country.
Al-Rahi Urges Aoun, Miqati to 'Take Decisive Step' to
Defuse Gulf Row
Naharnet/October 31, 2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday noted that “the crisis with the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in particular and the Arab Gulf nations in general has
multiple and accumulating reasons.”“It can harm the interest of Lebanon and the
interests of the Lebanese,” al-Rahi warned in his Sunday Mass sermon.“That’s why
we are looking forward for the President (Michel Aoun), Premier (Najib Miqati)
and everyone concerned with the issue to take a decisive step to defuse the
crisis that might blow up the Lebanese-Gulf relations,” the patriarch urged. He
noted that he is calling for this “decisive stance in defense of Lebanon and the
Lebanese who live inside the country and abroad.”Separately, al-Rahi said the
judiciary must continue its investigations into the port blast case and the Ain
al-Remmaneh incidents “without any bargaining between the two cases and without
any bartering, settlement, politicization or sectarianization.”
Kordahi Says His Resignation is 'Out of the Question'
Naharnet/October 31, 2021
Information Minister George Kordahi on Sunday stressed that he will not resign
despite the growing diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries.
In remarks to al-Jadeed television, Kordahi emphasized that such a move is "out
of the question." The crisis erupted Friday when Saudi Arabia gave Lebanon's
ambassador 48 hours to leave the country, recalled its envoy from Beirut and
suspended all imports from Lebanon. The Saudi foreign ministry said the measures
were taken after "insulting" remarks made by Kordahi on the Yemen war, but also
due to the influence of Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbullah. The group, it said,
controls Lebanese ports and "hijacks" the government's decision-making in
Beirut. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were quick to follow suit.
In an interview recorded back in August and aired on Monday, Kordahi slammed the
Saudi-led military intervention against Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen. The
interview was recorded around a month before he became minister. Kordahi said
the Huthis were "defending themselves... against an external aggression,"
sparking angry rebukes from Saudi Arabia and its allies and calls in Lebanon for
his resignation.
The minister met with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Saturday and media
reports said the patriarch “advised him to resign.
Israel’s army launches week-long simulation of
full-scale war with Hezbollah
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/31 October ,2021
Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) and the defense ministry’s National Emergency
Management Authority launched on Sunday a week-long exercise simulating a
full-scale war with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Israeli media
reported. The military drill will simulate a conflict in which Hezbollah may
utilize “100,000 rockets and missiles of different ranges, as well as a smaller
but still significant quantity of precision-guided missiles, which have emerged
as a potentially major issue for Israel,” the Times of Israel reported. Israeli
military officials assessed that Hezbollah’s military capabilities are the
“second most serious threat” facing Israel, after an Iranian nuclear weapon.
Israel has long viewed the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon as an enemy. Lebanon
and Israel are still in a formal state of war and have long contested their land
and maritime borders. Israel has also carried out hundreds of air strikes in
neighboring Syria in recent years against suspected Iranian military deployments
or arms transfers to Hezbollah. “What concerns me as the chief of staff of the
Home Front Command: One is the issue of precision-guided munitions and the
effect that they will have on our ability to function and on things in the world
of incoming fire alerts,” said Brig. Gen. Itzik Bar, chief of staff of the IDF
Home Front Command. “The second is the rate of fire and Hezbollah’s ability to
conduct truly massive rocket barrages at specific geographic areas — I’ll use
the phrase ‘demolishing the front line’ — directed fire at the communities near
the border,” he added. The IDF’s atomic-biological-chemical unit will simulate
responses to both “intentional chemical weapons attacks along the border, as
well as toxic chemical spills from missiles striking Israeli factories.”
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
October 31-November 01/2021
We Must Attack Iran Now,’ Insists Israeli Lawmaker
Israeli jets spotted escorting heavy American bombers across the Middle East in
clear message to the Islamic Republic
Ryan Jones/Israel Today/October 31, 2021
Tzachi Hanegbi says that Israel needs to attack Iran, and it needs to do so by
the end of this year.
Hanegbi is a former cabinet minister and prominent lawmaker with the opposition
Likud party. And he insists that Israel’s words need to translate to action in
regards to stopping Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Should the US, Europe
and other world powers fail in a last ditch effort to convince Iran to return to
the negotiating table, Hanegbi said that the current Israeli government would
have the backing of the Likud-led opposition to launch a preemptive military
strike on the Islamic Republic. “Iran is an existential threat. We give full
backing to this government if the decision is made to strike. We are approaching
the crossroads of a decision on the Iranian issue,” said Hanegbi at a cultural
event over the weekend. “If there is no agreement between Iran and the world
powers, we should attack Iran by the end of 2021.”When Israel Foreign Minister
Yair Lapid met with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken earlier this month, he
noted that Iran would soon become a nuclear threshold state. Israel, he
stressed, could not tolerate that outcome. Blinken and other top US officials
since then have moved closer to the Israeli position, though without explicitly
threatening military action. Israel, on the other hand, has been open about its
plans to attack Iran should the Islamic Republic’s defiant nuclear program move
forward. A week after Lapid’s return to Israel, his government approved a
special budget of 5 billion shekels for a potential attack on Iran. See: War
Alert? Israel Approves Budget for Iran Airstrikes. In closely related news, the
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Saturday tweeted photos and footage of Israeli
fighter jets escorting an American heavy bomber across the Middle East. Israel
called the flight a demonstration of continued close cooperation between the
allies, and it was seen as a clear message to Iran that Israel and the US are
ramping up preparation for a joint military operation.
US will respond to Iran’s actions, ‘price’ to pay for
nuclear talks failure: Biden
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/31 October ,2021
US President Joe Biden said on Sunday the US will “respond” to actions Iran has
taken against American interests, including drone strikes. “With regards to the
issue of how we’re going to respond to their [Iran’s] actions against interest
of the US, whether they are drone strikes or anything else, is we’re going to
respond. We will continue to respond,” Biden told reporters in a press
conference after the G20 summit in Rome. American forces and contractors in Iraq
and Syria have been regularly targeted by missile and drone attacks which have
been claimed by groups that the US have described as smokescreens for well-known
Iran-backed armed militias in the region. Biden’s statements comes the US-Iran
talks over reviving the nuclear deal have stalled for months since the election
of President Ebrahim Raisi in June. Washington has repeatedly expressed that its
patience was wearing thin and that should diplomacy with Tehran fail, it was
prepared to pursue other options. Bide stressed that should Iran fail to return
to the nuclear deal, Tehran would face a “price to pay economically”, signaling
Washington’s preparedness to impose further sanctions on the Iranian regime.
Talks over reviving the abandoned 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which former US
President Donlad Trump withdrew from in 2018, are scheduled to resume late
November. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said on Sunday that
if the US was serious about returning to the nuclear accord, Biden should issue
an “executive order” to rejoin the pact and that there was no need for
negotiations in the first place.
American B-1B bomber flies over Mideast amid Iran
tensions
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/ October 31, 2021
The U.S. Air Force said Sunday it flew a B-1B strategic bomber over key maritime
chokepoints in the Mideast with allies including Israel amid ongoing tensions
with Iran as its nuclear deal with world powers remains in tatters.
The B-1B Lancer bomber flew Saturday over the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth
of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all oil traded passes. It also flew
over the Red Sea, its narrow Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Egypt's Suez Canal.
The Strait of Hormuz has been the scene of attacks on shipping blamed on Iran in
recent years, while the Red Sea has seen similar assaults amid an ongoing shadow
war between Tehran and Israel. The Islamic Republic has denied being involved in
the attacks, though it has promised to take revenge on Israel for a series of
attacks targeting its nuclear program. Fighter jets from Bahrain, Egypt, Israel
and Saudi Arabia flew alongside the bomber. Iranian state media did not
immediately acknowledge the flyover. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New
York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The flyover comes
after a pattern of such flights by nuclear-capable B-52 bombers since the Trump
administration as a show of force to Iran. Trump in 2018 unilaterally withdrew
America from Iran's 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Tehran agree to drastically
limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic
sanctions. In the time since, Iran has abandoned all the limits of the deal and
drastically reduced the ability of international inspectors to keep watch over
their program. While Iran insists its program is peaceful, the U.S. intelligence
agencies, Western inspectors and others say Tehran had a structured military
nuclear weapons program through the end of 2003. President Joe Biden has said
he's willing to re-enter the nuclear deal, but talks in Vienna have stalled as a
hard-line protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took over as
president. Biden sending a B1-B bomber into the region allows him to send “a
clear message of reassurance” to regional allies, as the U.S. Air Force's
Central Command put it on Twitter. But it doesn't involved a nuclear-capable
bomber. The B-1B came from the 37th Bomb Squadron based at Ellsworth Air Force
Base in South Dakota.
U.S. says it is in talks with allies on getting Iran to agree to nuclear deal
Reuters/October 31, 2021
The United States was "absolutely in lock step" with Britain, Germany and France
on getting Iran back into a nuclear deal, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said
on Sunday, but he added it was unclear if Tehran was willing to rejoin the talks
in a "meaningful way."Blinken's remarks in an interview with CNN on Sunday come
a day after the United States, Germany, France and Britain urged Iran to resume
compliance with a 2015 nuclear deal in order to "avoid a dangerous
escalation."The accord, under which Iran curtailed nuclear work seen as a risk
of developing nuclear weapons in exchange for a lifting of global sanctions,
unraveled in 2018 after then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States,
prompting Tehran to breach limits on uranium enrichment set by the pact. "It
really depends on whether Iran is serious about doing that," Blinken said on
Iran rejoining the nuclear talks. "All of our countries, working by the way with
Russia and China, believe strongly that that would be the best path forward," he
added. The nuclear deal is not the only point of contention between Iran and the
United States. On Friday, the United States issued a fresh round of Iran-related
sanctions tied to an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps drone program that it
said threatened regional stability. President Joe Biden said on Sunday that the
United States will "respond" to actions Iran has taken against Washington's
interests, including drone strikes. Leaders of the United States, Britain,
France and Germany, hoping to persuade Tehran to stop enriching uranium to
near-weapons-grade levels, said on Saturday they wanted a negotiated solution.
"But we do not yet know whether Iran is willing to come back to engage in a
meaningful way," Blinken said on Sunday. "But if it isn't, if it won't, then we
are looking together at all of the options necessary to deal with this problem."
Iran's foreign minister said separately on Sunday that if the United States was
serious about rejoining Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, Biden
could just issue an "executive order," the state-owned Iran newspaper reported.
"It is enough for Biden to issue an executive order tomorrow and they (U.S.)
announce they are rejoining the pact from the point where his predecessor left
the deal," Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said. "If there is a
serious will in Washington to return to the deal, there is no need for all these
negotiations at all." Talks between Iran and world powers aimed at salvaging the
deal, which started in April, are slated to resume at the end of November, the
Islamic Republic's top nuclear negotiator said on Wednesday.
Saudi FM says Palestinian state before Israel
normalization
Ynetnews/ i24NEWS/October 31/2021
Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud says no change in Riyadh's position toward
establishing diplomatic ties with Jewish state despite Biden administration's
efforts to advance the process
A Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is a prerequisite for
Saudi Arabia normalizing ties with Israel, the Gulf country's foreign minister
Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said in an interview with Saudi news channel
Al-Hadath. Although supportive of the Abraham Accords that established
diplomatic ties between Israel and four Arab countries, the kingdom has
maintained that a resolution to the Palestinian issue must happen before joining
the pact. Saudi Arabia has recently made positive moves toward the Jewish state,
including allowing the use of its airspace for commercial flights from Tel Aviv
to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, significantly shortening travel time between the two
countries. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with
Israel at a White House ceremony in September 2020. Morocco and Sudan later
followed suit. In an interview last year with the Washington Institute for Near
East Policy, Faisal said that normalization with Israel would take place
eventually, "but we also need to have a Palestinian state and we need to have a
Palestinian and Israeli peace plan."Despite the comments by Saudi Arabia's top
diplomat, it was reported that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is
discussing Israel normalization with the Saudis. White House National Security
Adviser Jake Sullivan reportedly raised the issue last month in Riyadh during a
meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). The report stated
that MBS did not immediately reject the proposal to establish diplomatic ties
with Israel, listing the steps needed to make the move, including improving the
relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Other countries mentioned
as possible candidates to next join the Abraham Accords include Comoros,
Tunisia, Oman, Qatar and Malaysia, although Qatar's foreign minister earlier
this month ruled out establishing diplomatic ties with Israel as long as the
"occupation of Arab lands" continues.
Three Rockets Hit near Baghdad Green Zone
Agence France Presse/October 31, 2021
Three rockets on Sunday hit a Baghdad neighborhood near the high-security Green
Zone where the U.S. embassy is located without causing any casualties, an Iraqi
security official said. "Three Katyusha rockets fell in the Mansur district of
Baghdad," the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP. The rockets
struck near a Red Crescent hospital, a bank and the district's water management
department, the source added. The so far unclaimed attack, the first to target
the Green Zone since two rockets fired on July 29, comes as authorities conduct
a recount of votes cast in an October 10 parliamentary election. Preliminary
results show the Conquest Alliance, the political arm of the Hashed al-Shaabi
network of pro-Iranian militias, lost ground in the election. Hashed leaders
have vehemently contested the results and several hundred of their supporters
staged a sit-in on an avenue leading to the Green Zone this month in protest.
The powerful network is fiercely opposed to the U.S. presence in Iraq. Its
leaders have repeatedly praised the rocket and drone attacks in recent months
that have targeted Iraqi military bases housing U.S. troops, without claiming
responsibility. Some 2,500 U.S. troops are still deployed in Iraq. They will
officially limit themselves to an "advisory" role to the Iraqi security forces
from 2022. The Green Zone also houses Iraqi government buildings.
Iran Suspects Israel and U.S. behind Fuel Cyber Attack
Agence France Presse/October 31, 2021
An Iranian general has said Israel and the United States were likely to have
been behind a cyber attack that interrupted the distribution of fuel at service
stations. Tuesday's attack "technically" resembles two previous incidents whose
perpetrators "were unquestionably our enemies, namely the United States and the
Zionist regime," the Revolutionary Guards' Gholamreza Jalali said. "We have
analyzed two incidents, the railway accident and the Shahid Rajaei port
accident, and we found that they were similar," Jalali, who heads a civil
defense unit responsible for cyber activity, told state television late
Saturday. In July, Iran's transportation ministry said a "cyber disruption" had
affected its computer systems and website, according to Fars news agency. And in
May last year, the Washington Post reported that Israel carried out a cyber
attack on the Iranian port of Shahid Rajaei in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic
route for global oil shipments. Tuesday's cyber attack caused traffic jams on
major arteries in Tehran, where long queues at petrol stations disrupted the
flow of traffic. The oil ministry later took service stations offline so that
petrol could be distributed manually, according to the authorities. President
Ebrahim Raisi on Wednesday accused the perpetrators of trying to turn Iran's
people against the leadership of the Islamic republic. Around 3,200 of the
country's 4,300 service stations have since been reconnected to the central
distribution system, the National Oil Products Distribution Company said, quoted
Saturday by state news agency IRNA. Other stations also provide fuel for
motorists, but at unsubsidized rates that make it twice as expensive at around
five Euro cents (5-6 US cents) per liter, the news agency reported. In a country
where petrol flows freely at what are some of the lowest prices in the world,
motorists need digital cards issued by the authorities. The cards entitle
holders to a monthly amount of petrol at a subsidized rate and, once the quota
has been used up, to buy more expensive at the market rate. Since 2010, when
Iran's nuclear program was hit by the Stuxnet computer virus, Iran and its
arch-foes Israel and the United States have regularly accused each other of
cyber attacks.
Saudi-Iran 'Proxy Wars' Play Out in Embattled Lebanon
Agence France Presse/October 31, 2021
Financially crippled Lebanon finds itself in a new tug-of-war between regional
kingpins Saudi Arabia and Iran after Riyadh and other wealthy Gulf states
expelled the Lebanese envoy, analysts say. The crisis erupted Friday when Saudi
Arabia gave Lebanon's ambassador 48 hours to leave the country, recalled its
envoy from Beirut and suspended all imports from Lebanon. The Saudi foreign
ministry said the measures were taken after "insulting" remarks made by a
Lebanese minister on the Yemen war, but also due to the influence of Lebanon's
Iran-backed Hizbullah.
The group, it said, controls Lebanese ports and "hijacks" the overnment's
decision-making in Beirut. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait were
quick to follow suit. The crisis is a fresh blow to Lebanon, a country in
financial and political turmoil where a fragile government is struggling to
secure international aid, namely from wealthy Arab neighbors. But remarks by
Information Minister George Kordahi, in an interview recorded back in August
aired on Monday, slamming the Saudi-led military intervention against
Iran-backed Huthi rebels in Yemen, undermined these efforts. Kordahi said the
Huthis were "defending themselves... against an external aggression," sparking
angry rebukes from Saudi Arabia and its allies and calls in Lebanon for his
resignation. Analyst Karim Bitar said Kordahi's remarks were just a trigger for
a looming geopolitical showdown. The escalation "has very little to do with what
this mediocre minister of information said... (and) everything to do with the
Saudi-Iranian tug-of-war that has been ongoing for the past few years."
'Battlefields'
"Kordahi was only a pretext for something that was long in the making," he said.
Lebanon is "one of the battlefields between Iran and Saudi Arabia" along with
Syria, Yemen and Iraq, where the two regional rivals support opposing sides,
Bitar added. Riyadh's move also reflects the kingdom's determination to push
Lebanon "to take a harsher line on Hizbullah," he said. Hizbullah wields
considerable influence in Lebanon, where it holds seats in parliament, and has
been designated as a "terrorist" group by Saudi Arabia and much of the West.
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has said he "regrets" the Saudi decision, and urged
Riyadh to reconsider its move. He did not explicitly call for Kordahi's
resignation, but said he did not speak in the name of the government. He urged
the minister to "take into consideration Lebanon's national interest... in order
to appease ties with Gulf countries."Kordahi was nominated by the Marada
Movement, a party allied to Hizbullah and led by Maronite leader Suleiman
Franjieh. The minister has refused to apologize -- as both Hizbullah and
Franjieh rejected calls for his dismissal. With Lebanon in the grip of an
economic and financial crisis -- seen by the World Bank as one of the world's
worst since the 1850s -- the diplomatic row becomes all the more damaging.
'Paying the price'
It comes as Sunni kingpin Saudi Arabia and Shiite-majority Iran have been
holding talks for months to ease tensions after a five-year rift. The
arch-rivals broke diplomatic ties in 2016 after protesters attacked Saudi
diplomatic missions in the Islamic republic following the kingdom's execution of
a revered Shiite cleric. Bitar said the latest crisis is also linked to these
negotiations between Riyadh and Tehran, with Lebanon "paying the price." "When
two elephants fight, it's the grass that suffers and Lebanon for the umpteenth
time in its history is the grass that is suffering when these proxy wars become
more intense," he said.
Lebanon's diplomatic fallout with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait also
comes at a critical time for the small country. Miqati's fragile government has
not met for three weeks amid a campaign spearheaded by Hizbullah to remove a
judge investigating last year's devastating blast at Beirut port, accusing him
of political bias. "Lebanon needs a cabinet and gains nothing by shooting itself
in the foot as it finds itself in the midst of a regional clash," said Michael
Young, an analyst with the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. "Since
the Saudis regard Lebanon as an Iranian card, they feel it makes sense to behave
toward the country" in its current manner, he added on Twitter. But he warned
that "by isolating Lebanon, they will only ensure that Iran and its local
proxies tighten their control" over the country.
Sudanese Anti-Coup Protesters Barricade Streets
Agence France Presse/October 31, 2021
Sudanese anti-coup protesters on Sunday manned barricades in Khartoum a day
after a deadly crackdown on mass rallies, as a defiant civil disobedience
campaign against the military takeover entered its seventh day. Tens of
thousands turned out across the country for Saturday's demonstrations, marching
against the army's October 25 power grab, when top General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
dissolved the government, declared a state of emergency and detained Sudan's
civilian leadership. The move sparked a chorus of international condemnation,
with world powers demanding a swift return to civilian rule and calls for the
military to show "restraint" against protesters. At least three people were shot
dead and more than 100 people wounded during Saturday's demonstrations,
according to medics, who reported those killed had bullet wounds in their head,
chest or stomach. It takes the death toll since protests began to at least 11.
Police forces denied the killings, or using live bullets. "No, no, to military
rule," protesters carrying Sudanese flags chanted as they marched around the
capital and other cities, as forces fired tear gas to break them up. More than
100 people were also wounded on Saturday, some suffering breathing difficulties
from tear gas, the independent Central Committee of Sudan's Doctors said. Sudan
had been ruled since August 2019 by a joint civilian-military council, alongside
Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok's government, as part of the now derailed
transition to full civilian rule.
Soldiers on the streets
Hamdok and other top leaders have been under military guard since then, either
in detention or effective house arrest.
US President Joe Biden has called the coup a "grave setback", while the African
Union has suspended Sudan's membership for the "unconstitutional" takeover. The
World Bank and the United States froze aid, a move that will hit hard in a
country already mired in a dire economic crisis. But Burhan -- who became de
facto leader after hardline ex-president Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019
following huge youth-led protests -- has insisted the military takeover was "not
a coup." Instead, Burhan says he wants to "rectify the course of the Sudanese
transition."Demonstrations on Saturday rocked many cities across Sudan,
including in the eastern states of Gedaref and Kassala, as well as in North
Kordofan and White Nile, witnesses and AFP correspondents said. As night fell
Saturday, many protests in Khartoum and the capital's twin city of Omdurman
thinned out. But on Sunday morning protesters were back on the streets, again
using rocks and tires to block roads. Shops remain largely shut in Khartoum,
where many government employees are refusing to work as part of a nationwide
protest campaign. Soldiers from the army and the much-feared paramilitary Rapid
Support Forces were seen on many streets in Khartoum and Omdurman.
Security forces have set up random checkpoints on the streets, frisking
passers-by and randomly searching cars. Phone lines, which were largely down on
Saturday, were back apart from intermittent disruptions. But internet access has
remained cut off since the army's takeover.
Sudan has enjoyed only rare democratic interludes since independence in 1956 and
spent decades riven by civil war. Burhan was a general under Bashir's three
decades of iron-fisted rule, and analysts said the coup aimed to maintain the
army's traditional control over the northeast African country.
Thousands march in Sudan against coup, UN works to
facilitate civilian-military dialogue
The Arab Weekly/October 31/2021
KHARTOUM--The UN secretary general urged Sudan’s generals on Sunday to reverse
their takeover of the country, a day after tens of thousands of people took to
the streets in the largest pro-democracy protest since last week’s coup. Tens of
thousands of Sudaneses marched across the country calling for civilian rule,
from Khartoum to the eastern regions of Gedaref and Kassala and the Red Sea city
of Port Sudan, as well as central North Kordofan state and southern White Nile
state. Antonio Guterres said the generals should “take heed” of Saturday’s
protests. “Time to go back to the legitimate constitutional arrangements,” he
said in a tweet. He was referring to a power-sharing deal that established joint
military-civilian rule following the ouster of longtime autocrat Omar al-Bashir
and his Islamist government in April 2019. Meanwhile, the UN mission for Sudan
is working to facilitate dialogue between the military and civilian leaders. A
Sudanese military official said that a UN-supported national committee began
separate meetings last week with Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Burhan to
find common ground. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan also called
for “a Sudanese dialogue that brings together all parties”, and said Saturday
that Sudan’s security was “of paramount importance” to the Gulf kingdom.
Guterres expressed concern about violence against protesters on Saturday,
calling for perpetrators to be held accountable. At least three people were shot
dead when security forces opened fire on protesters in Omdurman, a city adjacent
to the capital of Khartoum. A doctors’ union also said more than 110 people were
injured by live rounds, tear gas and beatings in Omdurman and elsewhere in the
country. With Saturday’s deaths, the overall number of people killed since
Monday’s coup rose to 12, according to the Sudan Doctors’ Committee and
activists. More than 280 others were injured over the past week. The coup came
after weeks of growing tensions between the military and civilians, and the
generals had repeatedly called for dissolving the transitional government. Gen.
Abdel-Fattah Buhran, who led the coup, has said the takeover was necessary to
prevent a civil war, citing what he said were growing divisions among political
groups. However, the takeover came less than a month before he was to have
handed some power to a civilian. He also claimed that the transition to
democracy would continue, saying he would install a new technocrat government
soon, with the aim of holding elections in July 2023. But the pro-democracy
movement in Sudan fears the military has no intention of easing its grip, and
will appoint politicians it can control.
The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on October 31-November 01/2021
The EU's Dangerous Policy Towards Iran's Mullahs
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/October 30/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/103782/103782/
The EU also made many concessions to Iran, such as agreeing to include in the
nuclear deal sunset clauses enabling the mullahs soon to have as many nuclear
weapons as they like.
Meanwhile, the EU, which never stops moralizing to other countries about how
they should be conducting themselves, has turned a blind eye to credible reports
regarding Iran's continually violating the nuclear deal as well as pursuing
clandestine nuclear activities. By February 2016, Iran had already exceeded its
threshold for heavy water for the second time.
At the same time, when it comes to terrorism, members of the EU have been among
the main targets of Iran's terrorist plots. The Iranian regime has been
implicated in a series of assassinations, seizing European hostages and other
hostile acts across Europe....
The EU might also do well to see how Iran's military adventurism in the region
has escalated -- and will continue to escalate unless it is stopped.
If Iran acquires nuclear capability, it will no longer even have to use
terrorism or hostage-taking -- or even its new bombs -- to blackmail Europe: the
mere threat of using one should be sufficient.
Will the EU please wake up in time and alter its dangerous policy towards Iran?
The EU also made many concessions to Iran, such as agreeing to include in the
nuclear deal sunset clauses enabling the mullahs soon to have as many nuclear
weapons as they like. (Image source: iStock)
For almost six years since the 2015 "nuclear deal," the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action, was reached, the European Union has been appeasing Iran's ruling
mullahs. What the EU fails to see is that that its soft policy towards the
mullahs has been a total disaster and dangerous.
Right after the "nuclear deal" was reached -- which by the way the Iranian
regime never signed -- the EU, alongside the Obama administration, lifted nearly
all its economic sanctions. It was a gift that helped the Iranian regime to
reintegrate into the global financial system. The EU also made many concessions
to Iran, such as agreeing to include in the nuclear deal sunset clauses enabling
the mullahs soon to have as many nuclear weapons as they like.
Germany and France appeared to be among the first in a hurry to rekindle
business with the ruling mullahs of Iran. Right after the half-signed nuclear
deal, the Western half, Germany's former Economic Minister and Vice Chancellor
Sigmar Gabriel, together with a business delegation from Siemens, Linde,
Mercedes and Volkswagen, visited Iran, and many large European companies such as
Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Eni began their plans to do business with Iran. Since
then, as nearly 30 Iranian banks reconnected to SWIFT, trade between the EU and
Iran has increased almost 43%.
Meanwhile, the EU, which never stops moralizing to other countries about how
they should be conducting themselves, has turned a blind eye to credible reports
regarding Iran's continually violating the nuclear deal as well as pursuing
clandestine nuclear activities. By February 2016, Iran had already exceeded its
threshold for heavy water for the second time. A year after the nuclear deal,
Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of
the Constitution, revealed in its annual report that the Iranian government has
pursued a "clandestine" path during the nuclear agreement to obtain illicit
nuclear technology and equipment from German companies "at what is, even by
international standards, a quantitatively high level." The intelligence report
also stated that "it is safe to expect that Iran will continue its intensive
procurement activities in Germany using clandestine methods to achieve its
objectives."
After that, the US, one of the key players in the nuclear deal, withdrew from
it under the Trump administration and re-imposed sanctions. The EU, however,
Washington's old transatlantic ally, parted ways with its Western partner in
favor of the mullahs. The EU declined to re-impose sanctions on Iran, then set
about keeping business with it alive. Three European governments -- Germany,
France and the UK -- created a mechanism, the Instrument in Support of Trade
Exchanges (INSTEX), based in Paris and designed primarily to circumvent US
sanctions. "We're making clear," Germany's former Foreign Minister Heiko Maas
admitted, "that we didn't just talk about keeping the nuclear deal with Iran
alive, but now we're creating a possibility to conduct business transactions."
What has been the outcome of the EU's appeasement of the mullahs of Iran?
Business for Europe. Iran's leaders, in the meantime, are now closer than ever
to obtaining nuclear weapons. The theocratic establishment is presently close to
having enough enriched uranium to refine and build at least one nuclear bomb,
requiring only about 1000 kg of uranium enriched at just 5%.
At the same time, when it comes to terrorism, members of the EU have been among
the main targets of Iran's terrorist plots. The Iranian regime has been
implicated in a series of assassinations, seizing European hostages and other
hostile acts across Europe, some successful, others not, that have been traced
back to Tehran. European officials were able to foil a terrorist attack
targeting a large "Free Iran" convention in Paris, that was attended in June
2018 by many high-level speakers, including former US House of Representatives
Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird. In 2020,
in Belgium, one of Iran's active diplomats, the Iranian Assadollah Assadi, was
sentenced to 20 years in prison for trying to plant a bomb.
The EU might also do well to see how Iran's military adventurism in the Middle
East has escalated -- and will continue to escalate unless it is stopped. Since
the EU began appeasing the Iranian regime, the region has witnessed more Houthi
rocket attacks at civilian targets in Saudi Arabia, the deployment of thousands
of Hezbollah foot soldiers in Syria, and the bombardment of Israel by
Iranian-funded Hamas rockets.
Are profit and business really more important to the EU than stopping what the
US Department of State refers to as the "world's worst state sponsor of
terrorism" from having nuclear weapons? Does the EU continue to appease the
mullahs because it believes that an emboldened and nuclear-armed Iran is not
going to be a threat to the EU, but only to other countries in the region such
as Israel and Saudi Arabia? Since 2015, the EU has met the ruling mullahs of
Iran with appeasement, kindness and flexibility every step of the way. This has
only empowered the Iranian regime and brought it closer to becoming a nuclear
state. The EU might recall what Winston Churchill famously warned against: "Each
one hopes that if he feeds the crocodile enough, the crocodile will eat him
last. All of them hope that the storm will pass before their turn comes to be
devoured. But I fear -- I fear greatly -- the storm will not pass."
If Iran acquires nuclear capability, it will no longer even have to use
terrorism or hostage-taking -- or even its new bombs -- to blackmail Europe: the
mere threat of using one should be sufficient.
Will the EU please wake up in time and alter its dangerous policy towards Iran?
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
France: Can this Journalist Become President and Save
France?
Guy Millière/Gatestone Institute/October 31, 2021
Zemmour... tells the leaders of The Republicans that his proposals are exactly
those included in their party's program from 1990... close the borders, suspend
immigration, provide social benefits only for the French, and fight the
increasing Islamization of the country. He tells Macron that "opening up to
diversity" leads to the dissolution of France. Zemmour notes that he does not
want to shrink the country, but save it from destruction and will not refuse to
see what Islam is and what it can do. He frequently quotes the Algerian author
Boualem Sansal, that Islamic neighborhoods in France are "budding Islamic
republics". He tells those who say he is a far-right Jew that he is just a
conservative attached to the French republic and to all the values that made
France great. He states that he is a French Jew, proud of his name, and that
those who murdered Jews in France in recent years were not Jews. He rejects the
charge of being an apologist for the anti-Semitic Vichy regime by pointing out
that what he says about French Jews during WWII was laid out in a book, Vichy
and The Holocaust: An Inquiry on a French Paradox, by Rabbi, Alain Michel, who
works for the Yad Vashem Holocaust Museum in Israel. Zemmour stresses that he
does not defend the Vichy regime at all, does not say that the Vichy regime
"protected" French Jews, but only cites historical facts -- and asks those who
criticize him on this point if they think Rabbi Alain Michel is an anti-Semite.
When asked about the Jews murdered by an Islamic terrorist at a Jewish school in
Toulouse, Zemmour says that he does not blame their families for having them
buried in Israel, that he does not think their families behaved like
"foreigners." He simply notes a fact: that they think that above all they are
Jews, which is the right of every Jew. He says that the concept of a "great
replacement" of Western Christendom by Islam is not a conspiracy theory but a
reality: that demographic data show that in many places throughout history,
there is documentation of people who have replaced other people after they have
imported a civilization that does not have the same values as theirs. He adds
that this is not an idea shared only by white nationalists, but by all those who
read history and live in areas that are changing rapidly.
France is in an extremely serious situation today. There are more than 700
"no-go zones" (Zones Urbaines Sensibles) ruled by ethnic gangs and radical
imams. The police can only intervene in these zones through commando operations.
A new kind of disturbance, defined by sociologists as "gratuitous violence" --
violence practiced for the pleasure of injuring and killing -- has been
spreading. Hundreds of assaults take place every day; police reports show that
the majority of them are committed by "suburban youths"....
A recent survey showed that 14% of young people in France aged 18-30 approved of
the motives of the motives of [schoolteacher Samuel] Paty's murderer. A poll
conducted in November 2020 showed that 57% of Muslims in France aged 18-25
consider Sharia law to be superior to the laws of the republic.... Entire French
towns are now predominantly Muslim: Roubaix, Trappes, Sevran, Aubervilliers....
Each year, 400,000 immigrants legally arrive in France, mostly from the Muslim
world. In addition, each year, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants, also
mostly from the Muslim world, are added to that number.... the newcomers are
young, and their birthrate is far higher than that of non-Muslims. A population
change is taking place.... If the change continues at the present rate, France
could be a predominantly Muslim country around 2050.
Zemmour is also the only presidential candidate who has dared to say that the
Palestinian people were invented -- a statement long ago affirmed by former
Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat -- and that Israel is a nation
state that, like all states, has the right to defend itself and fight for its
survival.
When Zemmour's supporters are questioned at a public meeting, they unanimously
say that he is the only one telling the truth: that a "great replacement" is
clearly taking place and could cause France as they know it -- proud of its
secularism, Judeo-Christian values and individual liberty -- to "die".
When Éric Zemmour's supporters are questioned at a public meeting, they
unanimously say that he is the only one telling the truth: that a "great
replacement" is clearly taking place and could cause France as they know it --
proud of its secularism, Judeo-Christian values and individual liberty -- to
"die". Pictured: Zemmour in Budapest, Hungary on September 24, 2021.
September 16. Éric Zemmour's new book, France Has Not Yet Said Her Last Word,
immediately book becomes a bestseller. Two of his previous books, The French
Suicide and A Five-Year Term for Nothing: Chronicles of the War of
Civilizations, sold more than 500,000 copies, a high number for non-fiction in
France. He is an exception. All authors who write of immigration and Islam
without political correctness have been ostracized by the media for years. Not
Zemmour. Each time he was fired by radio and television stations, another one
hired him. As the last politically incorrect talk show host, his audience
consists of people weary of political correctness. He has been dragged into
court countless times and ordered to pay high fines, presumably to force him to
be quiet. He has paid the fines but would not be quiet.
His earlier books, extremely pessimistic about the future of France, concluded
that the country was dying, and unnervingly fast. The cause of death would be
the population change resulting from uncontrolled immigration and the ensuing
Islamization of the country. Islam, at war with Western civilization for
thirteen centuries, he wrote, is incompatible with it. The Muslim population
living in France, he went on, does not assimilate, but instead creates extremist
enclaves in French territory from which non-Muslims are driven out; and now
France finds itself colonized by Islam. French political leaders, he added,
practice willful blindness, refusing to see what happens, and slip into
submission. The situation, he concluded, is irreversible.
His new book breaks with his former pessimism and shows a willingness to fight.
His publisher would not publish the book, so Zemmour published it himself. The
book's release was accompanied by a poster campaign from a group, "Friends of
Éric Zemmour," created a few weeks earlier. The posters show his face along with
the words, "Zemmour President". Zemmour is not even officially a candidate for
president of the French Republic - yet. Nonetheless, he acts as if he were on
the campaign trail. He has been holding public meetings in large cities and
attracting thousands of supporters who seem happy to pay 20 euros ($23) to
attend.
On September 13, his television program on CNews was canceled after an
institution responsible for regulating audiovisual media in France, the CSA
(Superior Audiovisual Council), said that it was "impossible for a presumed
presidential candidate to have a television show". Immediately, Zemmour was
invited on virtually every radio and television station. In early September,
polls credited him with 5%-7% of the 2022 election vote. Recent polls show that,
in the first round, he could get 16%-18% of the vote, thereby placing him, in
the second round, head-to-head with France's current president, Emmanuel Macron.
Never in the history of the Fifth Republic has a presumed presidential candidate
had such a dramatic rise to power.
The leaders of The Republicans, France's leading moderate right-wing political
party, can see that many of their voters are considering voting for Zemmour, so
they still have not chosen a presidential candidate. When they saw that Zemmour
had every chance of receiving more votes than anyone else in the party, without
even participating in the primary election, they announced that votes for
Zemmour would not be counted. The president of the National Rally Party, Marine
Le Pen, also can see that many of her voters are turning toward Zemmour.
President Macron, for his part, until recently probably assumed that in the
second round he would be facing Marine Le Pen, and could again use the fear of
"fascism" and the "defense of the republic" by reminding the public that she is
the daughter of an unreconstructed anti-Semite, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and therefore
get easily re-elected.
Macron now seems visibly anxious and has begun to attack Zemmour's positions by
saying that France must be "open to diversity" and that "the identity of France
was never built on shrinking the country ". His advisers know it is not possible
to accuse Zemmour of anti-Semitism: he is a Jew. French Jews supporting Macron
now describe Zemmour as a far-right Jew betraying the values of Judaism. Zemmour
has said that the Vichy regime saved French Jews during World War II by
preventing them from being sent to the death camps, so some have accused him of
defending the Vichy regime and its collaboration with the Nazis. Supporters of
Macron and others say that Zemmour is a "racist" and a "fascist". Articles
steeped in hatred are published daily in the mainstream media, and journalists
who interview him on radio and television always say, before asking him
questions , that he is a dangerous man. Some commentators have described him as
an "infectious agent" and as a "virus more harmful than the Wuhan coronavirus".
The defamation poured out against him has even appeared in the international
press. An article on October 24 in the Wall Street Journal states that Zemmour
"has drawn inspiration from former President Donald Trump, is harnessing his
celebrity to explore a run for president". It adds that Zemmour "defended the
leaders of Vichy France, the regime that collaborated with Nazi Germany during
World War II", and that
"Mr. Zemmour said that they protected French Jews while handing over
foreign-born Jews to the Germans in a necessary compromise to occupation... Mr.
Zemmour wrote that families of the children killed in 2012 at a Jewish school
near Toulouse were behaving like foreigners for burying their children in
Israel".
The newspaper added that Zemmour "has embraced a view held by white nationalists
called the 'Great Replacement,' which contends that global elites are conspiring
to bring non-European immigrants".
Never has a presumptive French presidential candidate been attacked so
unanimously, so viciously and with so much savagery. To find similar attacks, it
would be necessary to go back to the 1930s, and at the time the attacks came
only from an anti-Semitic far-right press.
Zemmour responds to all criticisms and defamatory remarks. He tells the leaders
of The Republicans that his proposals are exactly those included in their
party's program from 1990, when, as the Rally for the Republic (RPR), it
proposed to close the borders, suspend immigration, provide social benefits only
for the French, and to fight the increasing Islamization of the country. He adds
that The Republicans betrayed their own party by renouncing its old program.
Zemmour tells Marine Le Pen that she cannot win and she knows it, and Macron
that "opening up to diversity" leads to the dissolution of France. He notes that
he does not want to shrink the country, but to save it from destruction and that
he will not refuse to see what Islam is or can do. He frequently quotes the
Algerian author Boualem Sansal, who writes that Islamic neighborhoods in France
are "budding Islamic republics". Zemmour tells those who say he is a far-right
Jew that he is just a conservative attached to the French republic and all the
values that made France great. He states that he is a French Jew, proud of his
name, and that those who murdered Jews in France in recent years were not Jews.
He says he rejects the charge of being an apologist for the anti-Semitic Vichy
regime, and points out that what he says about French Jews during WWII was laid
out in a book, Vichy and The Holocaust: An Inquiry on a French Paradox, by Rabbi
Alain Michel, who works for the Yad Vashem Holocaust Museum in Israel. Zemmour
stresses that he does not defend the Vichy regime at all, does not say that the
Vichy regime "protected" French Jews, but only cites historical facts -- and
asks those who criticize him on this point if they think Rabbi Alain Michel is
an anti-Semite.
Zemmour reminds those who call him a racist and a fascist that Islam is not a
race, and that fascists are the enemies of democracies, while he is trying to
save democracy. He adds that those who call him a "virus" remind him of those
who called Jews "vermin" in the 1930s; that anti-Semites already decades ago
called Jews "vermin," and that calling Jews "vermin" led to horrific
consequences.
Zemmour says that he thinks that Donald Trump did great things for the United
States -- he is one of the rare French journalists not to spit on Trump -- and
that he, Zemmour, would have preferred not to think about running for president,
but saw no one else likely to defeat Macron, and therefore has no choice.
When asked about the Jews murdered by an Islamic terrorist at a Jewish school in
Toulouse, Zemmour says that he does not blame their families for having them
buried in Israel, that he does not think their families behaved like
"foreigners." He simply notes a fact: that they think that above all they are
Jews, which is the right of every Jew. He says that the concept of a "great
replacement" of Western Christendom by Islam is not a conspiracy theory but a
reality: that demographic data show that in many places throughout history,
there is documentation of people who have replaced other people after they have
imported a civilization that does not have the same values as theirs. He adds
that this is not an idea shared only by white nationalists, but by all those who
read history and live in areas that are changing rapidly.
So far, only one French politician has agreed to debate with Zemmour: Jean-Luc
Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise ("France Unsubmitted"), a far-left
party that includes former members of the French Communist Party. The other
political leaders treat Zemmour with contempt. If he becomes a presidential
candidate, and if he continues to attract a large number of voters, they will
not be able to avoid debating him. They know him well, for thirty years, as a
journalist and political commentator. He also knows them well -- and is a
formidable debater.
Zemmour's presumed candidacy, his success, and the fury it provokes among
politicians and journalists seem symptoms of the state of the country today.
France is in an extremely serious situation. There are now more than 700 "no-go
zones" (Zones Urbaines Sensibles), ruled by ethnic gangs and radical imams. The
police can only intervene in these zones through commando operations. A new kind
of disturbance, defined by sociologists as "gratuitous violence" -- violence
practiced for the pleasure of injuring and killing -- has been spreading.
Hundreds of assaults take place every day; police reports show that the majority
of them are committed by "suburban youths" and that their victims are
Caucasians. In many high schools and colleges, teachers have long since given up
even mentioning the Holocaust. Since the beheading of high-school teacher Samuel
Paty, who was advocating free speech, they have also given up talking about
secularism. When, on October 17, 2021, a year after Paty was murdered, the
French government organized a commemoration in all French schools, many violent
incidents, unfortunately initiated by Muslim students, took place. A recent
survey showed that 14% of young people in France aged 18-30 approved of the
motives of Paty's murderer. A poll conducted in November 2020 showed that 57% of
Muslims in France aged 18-25 consider Sharia law to be superior to the laws of
the republic (in 2016, the figure was 47%).
Entire French towns are now predominantly Muslim: Roubaix, Trappes, Sevran,
Aubervilliers. The department of Seine-Saint-Denis will very soon be
predominantly Muslim. Marseille, the second-largest city in France, is 40%
Muslim and will likely be a majority Muslim city in less than a decade. The
population of Lyon, the third-largest city in France, is one-third Muslim.
Each year, 400,000 immigrants legally arrive in France, mostly from the Muslim
world. Also each year, tens of thousands of illegal immigrants, also mostly from
the Muslim world, are added to that number. Hardly any of them are deported. The
French population is aging; the newcomers are young, and their birthrate is far
higher than that of non-Muslims. A population change is taking place. The
September issue of the French monthly magazine Causeur published a detailed
investigation of the subject, titled "Smile, You Are Replaced!" It disclosed
that while native French women have a fertility rate of 1.9 children, women
coming from Algeria have a fertility rate of 3.6 children; from Tunisia, 3.5
children, and from Morocco, 3.4 children. If the change continues at the present
rate, France could be a predominantly Muslim country around 2050.
President Macron has not done anything to stop or lessen the flow of Muslim
immigration into France or to act against the change in population. He has often
said that he wants to fight Islamism -- and always adding that Islamism is an
ideology unrelated to Islam. He only once said that "Islam is a religion that is
in crisis today, all over the world", without giving a clear explanation of what
he meant. Most French Muslim organizations immediately reacted by saying that he
had insulted Islam. Demonstrations were launched in several Muslim countries:
Turkey, Lebanon, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia. French Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian flew to Cairo to apologize to Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayeb, the
Grand Imam of the al-Azhar Mosque, and emphatically to underscore France's deep
respect for Islam.
Macron said in November 2020 that a law to fight "Islamic separatism" would
quickly be passed. A law was indeed passed in August 2021, but it does not
include the words Islam or Islamism. It is called a "law confirming respect for
the principles of the Republic". It speaks of a "separatist dynamic which aims
at division" and says that public services should respect secularism, that civil
servants should be protected from threats, and that Islamic organizations should
disclose their sources of funding. It prohibits polygamy and home schooling.
However, the public services were already supposed to respect secularism; civil
servants were already supposed to be protected by the French state, and Islamic
organizations were already supposed to reveal their sources of funding. Polygamy
was already banned in France, but it exists nevertheless; several thousand
French Muslims today are polygamous. Home schooling is practiced by many
non-Muslims. The law offers no way to counter the Islamization of France and
radical Islam. Two or three radical mosques were closed for a few months, but
each year, dozens more mosques open up. Imams calling for jihad continue to
preach. Most are French citizens and cannot be expelled. Islamic bookstores
continue to sell anti-Semitic books banned in other bookshops. The expression
"Islamic separatism" is now used by all political leaders -- including Marine Le
Pen -- and by all French journalists when they speak of "no-go zones."
"The Islamists do not want to separate," Middle East scholar Bernard Rougier
states in his book The Conquered Territories of Islamism, "they want to submit
and conquer". Zemmour is the only journalist not excluded from the mainstream
media for speaking like Rougier, and the only presumptive presidential candidate
who reminds everyone that all the Jews murdered in France over more than a
decade have been killed by Islamic anti-Semites. Zemmour is also the only
presidential candidate who has dared to say that the Palestinian people were
invented -- a statement long ago affirmed by former Palestinian Authority
President Yasser Arafat -- and that Israel is a nation state that, like all
states, has the right to defend itself and fight for its survival.
Polls show that the French population is extremely pessimistic about the future
of France, and extremely dissatisfied with the current political parties. When
French regional elections were held in June, they saw an unprecedented
abstention rate for France of 66.7%.
When Zemmour's supporters are questioned at a public meeting, they unanimously
say that he is the only one telling the truth: that a "great replacement" is
clearly taking place and could cause France as they know it -- proud of its
secularism, Judeo-Christian values and individual liberty -- to "die". They
almost all add that they think the France of the Enlightenment actually could
"die" and that the 2022 presidential election is probably the last chance to
save the republic.
The Muslim electorate, increasing in importance in France, is -- no surprise
there -- hostile to him. Zemmour says Muslims need to accept criticism of Islam.
However, Muslims do not, and Islamic intolerance of free speech is rapidly
gaining ground in France. When a teenage girl named Mila made negative comments
about Islam on social media, she received so many death threats that she had to
go into hiding and still fears for her life.
In spite of articles saying that "Zemmour causes discomfort among French Jews,"
a large number of them seem set on voting for him: they apparently view the
possibility of continuing to live in an increasingly Islamized France as
compromised. They have already fled from the Islamized neighborhoods and cities
en masse. Nevertheless, the main French Jewish institutions seem to be blind to
the danger to French Jews represented by Islamic anti-Semitism. They continue
unconditionally to support Macron. "No Jewish vote should go to potential
candidate Éric Zemmour", said the president of the Representative Council of the
Jewish Institutions of France (CRIF), Francis Kalifat. "The ideas of Zemmour can
only inspire disgust," he added. He had never used such harsh words for French
politicians who supported Palestinian terrorist organizations. Ten years ago,
the then-president of CRIF, Richard Prasquier, also warmly received the
Palestinians' current leader, Mahmoud Abbas, not exactly known to be pro-Jewish,
in Paris.
If Zemmour decides to become a presidential candidate, he will need to do so
soon, and undoubtedly knows that being elected will be difficult. He has no
support from any political party or any political leader. Attacks against him by
the mainstream media will not just continue but intensify.
The French, Zemmour often says, do not want France to "die". The coming weeks
will show if he is right.
*Dr. Guy Millière, a professor at the University of Paris, is the author of 27
books on France and Europe.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Visions of Destruction and Construction in the Iranian and
Gulf Strategies
Raghida Dergham/October 31, 2021
Strategic visions are intersecting with negotiations, threats, and diktats
adopted by the Iranian leadership as it seeks to consolidate its regional
position and international relations. At the same time, the Iranian regime is
exhibiting a combination of anxiety, tension, and triumphalism. While Iran’s
neighbors are racing against the future, drawing strategies for economic growth,
tourism, investment, and coherent domestic change as they seek to exit the wars
they have been implicated in, and launch regional dialogue such as Saudi-Iranian
talks, Iran’s proud priority is its nuclear program and expansionist vision, an
ideological, strategic, and tactical priority that forms the raison d’etre of
the regime in Tehran. This explains why Iran’s rulers are left furious when
elections in a country like Iraq produce results undesirable to the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards – given Iraq’s crucial status in Iran’s regional
expansionist project. Likewise, Iran’s leaders will never allow Lebanon to fall
outside the control of its executive partner Hezbollah, because Lebanon is an
indispensable instrument in Iran’s strategy vis-à-vis Israel, whether to
escalate (even if just verbally) or de-escalate. After all, Syria has been taken
off Iran’s hands and can no longer serve as a front with Israel, thanks to a
Russian and American decision. This has been a source of great chagrin to Iran,
not because Iran is serious about launching a military battle with Israel –
which would be by proxy anyway – but because Iran and Hezbollah’s huge military
investments in Syria cannot be leveraged to use the latter as a front in the
Iranian strategy. Rather, Syria has been leveraged primarily to further Russia’s
strategy. As a result, Lebanon’s importance to the Iranian project has risen
dramatically, and domesticating this country and confiscating its sovereignty
has become a strategic objective of Iran. Yet the US, Europe, Russia, China, and
the Arab nations have chosen not to comprehend the implications of this, for
different reasons, amid full collusion or ignorance shown by Lebanon’s corrupt
ruling cabal. The fate of Lebanon in the equation of nuclear negotiations and
regional dialogues has thus become far more complicated than the fate of Yemen,
for example, given the priority of the latter in the Saudi-Iranian accords
should they come to fruition. But what then are the features of the emerging
grand strategy of the major regional powers, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran? And
what are the prospects for destruction and construction in the capitals of these
powers and the capitals of their satellite nations, like Beirut, Baghdad, and
Damascus?
First, it is crucial to understand the emerging strategic vision of the Islamic
Republic, as conveyed by informed sources familiar with the outlines set out by
the ruling establishment in Iran following the elections and years of sanctions
and isolation.
Here, “Iran for Iran” is the broad title of a revival project sought after by
Iran’s rulers, whereby a new Iran is envisaged as a major military power backed
by multilayered instruments of influence. The basis of this vision is enhancing
Iranian identity domestically and developing it abroad so that Iran becomes a
respected power wielding influence far beyond the reverberations of regional and
international crises. This vision however clashes with the domestic policies
that the Iranian regime often deploys against the Iranian people, who are
divided into two parts: One that is angry because of their living conditions as
compared against those of other peoples, especially in the Gulf neighborhood
where Saudis, Emiratis, and Qataris have come to reap the fruits of their
countries’ resources to develop and invest in a free, high-tech future; and
another that feels proud of their nation’s nuclear capabilities and ideological
defiance of the West. It is the latter’s aspirations for Persian revivalism that
the rulers of Iran want to capitalize on, if only to contain it and divert it
away from challenging the ruling theocratical doctrine.
At the level of foreign policy, the ruling establishment in Iran perceives its
interests as crucially dependent on Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq – in this order –
remaining part of a pro-Iranian ecosystem. The rulers of Iran want to mobilize
these countries’ political parties, movements, and groups, legal systems, force
units, and mass media, and to ensure a presence inside their governments to
guarantee loyalty in their ranks to Iran’s national and security interests. From
the Iranian strategic point of view, this ecosystem must ensure stability, by
having the pro-Iranian ecosystem ready to withstand foreign pressures, overcome
local obstacles, and sustain a long-term national pro-Iranian domestication to
serve stability in the Iranian sense.
According to the Iranian strategic vision, constructing this ecosystem is Iran’s
responsibility and must use all channels and instruments, patiently and
persistently, with inducements here and threats there, and by empowering local
loyalist forces. Iran is determined to never relinquish under any circumstances
the trinity of its regional project: Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. Whether there is
a setback here, or a victory there, the strategic decision is to ‘stabilize’
Lebanon in the framework of Iranian dominance as a priority, followed by Iraq
and Syria, all three of which countries are assigned a tailored strategy set
forth by the IRGC.
Israel also has its own strategy. In the view of the Iranian leadership, Israel
must remain an enemy to mobilize Arab emotional support and justify Iran’s
presence in the anti-Israel camp. Iran wants to also work with European
countries to partially isolate Israel leveraging their positions vis-à-vis the
Palestinian issue. As Iran’s relations with Europe become warmer and deeper,
Tehran believes it may be able to influence European policies on Israel, through
nuclear inducements – the magic wand to enchant Europe.
The cyber war being waged by Israel on Iran may not come out to the public, in
the sense that either Iran or Israel would admit it, as this would mean
escalating to direct military confrontation. Neither Iran nor Israel wants that,
and both prefer proxy wars using Arab territories.
The second priority in the Iranian foreign policy strategy, after Lebanon,
Syria, and Iraq, is the Gulf region. The first mission for Iran is to protect
its presence there and control strategically the Gulf’s vital routes. Iran’s
vision for the region is based on seeking mutual dependence with the Gulf
countries instead of open confrontations, by creating facts on the ground that
preclude any measures being taken against Iran. Iran is also still seeking a new
security structure in the Gulf but understands the difficulty of establishing it
especially in light of Iran’s own conditions. Therefore, Iran’s rulers are
currently considering a strategy to launch a process that would make their
positions stronger.
Iran’s rulers understand well that their country is not yet a global player, but
they want Iran to be a global influencer. In the meantime, Iran’s rulers believe
regional infiltration is more important. Therefore, they believe it will be
crucial to produce a positive impression of a new Iran that adopts a quiet
strategy of ‘soft control’, while building a comprehensive mechanism for
influence. In their view, this requires expanding the circle of friends to
include moderates, and not just hardline friends like Russia and China, to
propel Iran’s strategy forward.
The good news is that Iran’s new vision and strategy is not full of explicit
threats, yet the Iranian policy vis-à-vis countries like Lebanon and Iraq are
anything but ‘soft’. Rather, it is a policy of full subjugation of these two
countries to use them in the Iranian security belt.
Perhaps opening a new chapter with Saudi Arabia will lead to new accords on
Yemen, where the war is being fueled by the IRGC and Hezbollah, the Lebanese
party that sees itself as Iranian ammunition. The Saudi-Iranian talks are
dominated by military and security priorities. Yet the talks are crucial for the
Gulf as well as Yemen, and perhaps later Lebanon, if only the likes of its
Information Minister George Kordahi stop publicizing naïve politics, show a
sense of patriotism, and resign – at least out of respect for Lebanese expats
eking out a living in the Gulf. His remarks in defense of the Houthis in Yemen,
who threaten Saudi national security, expose his ignorance not just about the
war in Yemen but also of the writing on the wall when it comes to regional and
international negotiations. Perhaps the best thing he can do is resign, so that
his career does not end up a disposable commodity of unpatriotic consumption.
Regional and international bargaining is at a peak these days, from the Vienna
talks seeking to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, to regional negotiations,
amid a tug of war between lenience and intransigence. For now, the fate of the
polarization and the outcome remain unknown.
But what is happening in the Arab Gulf states suggest their leaders are resolved
not to be stuck in yesterday’s politics and confrontations. The major
development projects for the Saudi capital Riyadh, unveiled during the Future
Investment Initiative conference, and those of Abu Dhabi, capital of the UAE,
are but two examples of the strategic priorities of these powerhouse nations,
who have achieved something worthy of pause by adopting a policy of economic and
technological growth seeking to spread confidence and wellbeing among their
citizens.
By contrast, the misery felt in Beirut, Baghdad, and Damascus is but proof of
the failure of the Iranian doctrine, which has left Iran stuck in time if not
taken it back four decades in the past. But Tehran’s rulers do not care about
the happiness of the Iranian people in Iran’s magnificent cities, or the
happiness of people in Baghdad, Beirut, and Damascus. Still, one can only hope
that the new strategy being developed in Iran will prompt them to peek at the
breathtaking development of their neighbors. After all, nuclear weapons will not
restore Iran’s magnificence, and destruction can never be a sustainable policy.