English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 29/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.’
John 13/31-35: “When he had gone out, Jesus said, ‘Now the Son of Man has been glorified, and God has been glorified in him. If God has been glorified in him, God will also glorify him in himself and will glorify him at once. Little children, I am with you only a little longer. You will look for me; and as I said to the Jews so now I say to you, “Where I am going, you cannot come.”I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 28-29/2022
Lebanon markets keep an eye on serious measures to rein in dollar
In Lebanon, political instability could hamper economic reforms
Lebanese hospitals go on strike protesting economic crash
Lebanon: Politicians Warn against Total Collapse, Call for Swift Cabinet Formation
Berri Rejects to Engage in ‘Bargains’ in Exchange for His Re-election as Lebanon’s Speaker
Prominent Journalist Rajeh Khoury Passes Away
Fitch Ratings warns of elections' impact on Lebanese economy
Corona - MoPH: 94 new coronavirus cases, 1 new death in Lebanon
Ibrahim: We have no other choice but the state to build a new Lebanon
Minister of Energy signs an exceptional schedule for oil prices
Minister of Economy calls on traders to abide by updated pricing of exchange rate
Bou Saab, Berri meet
Judge Aoun: Until when will people's fate be left to the control of the corrupt & wicked?
UNDP Regional Goodwill Ambassador Haddad to head to Norway on "Arctic Walk for Climate Resilience & Food Security"
National Media Council: The right to peaceful protest is protected by constitutions and international laws
Labor Minister partakes in International Labor Conference in Geneva
The Confusing Results of Lebanon’s Elections/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 28/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 28-29/2022
Drone Targets Iran's Parchin Military Base
Gunmen kill policeman in Iran's southeast
Russian army confirms capture of Ukraine's Lyman town
Ukraine says 'everything' being done to defend Donbas from Russian onslaught
Russia Shows Off Zircon Hypersonic Cruise Missile in Test-launch
New Israeli Poll Brings Back Hope to Netanyahu
UN Experts: Libya's Security Threatened by Foreign Fighters
US Issues Sanctions Targeting North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction Program
Devil is in the Details of Iraq's New Law Criminalizing Normalization with Israel
Iran, Saudi talks yield ‘minimal progress’, no meeting in near future
Massive support ship to expand Iran’s reach to new waters
As Russia stumbles in war, Turkey and Kazakhstan sense opportunity
Biden Nominates Michael Singh for U.S. Institute of Peace Board

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 28-29/2022
Russia: Lone Wolf of the Steppes/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 28/2022
Biden’s Approval Slump Hits a Dreary New Milestone/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/May 28/2022
Queen Elizabeth’s platinum jubilee could be a turning point/Andrew Hammond/Arab News/May 28/2022
Arab Maghreb Union needs a whole new foundation/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/May 28/2022
Is the Syrian front about to witness new disruption?/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 28, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 28-29/2022
Lebanon markets keep an eye on serious measures to rein in dollar
Najia Houssari/Arab News/May 28/2022
BEIRUT: The dollar exchange rate continued its fall on the black market in Lebanon on Saturday, recording 27,650 pounds against the dollar, a drop of 11,000 pounds in less than 18 hours. The drop was a way of easing people’s anger and calming the markets a few days before the newly elected parliament convenes on Tuesday to elect a speaker, a deputy speaker and the parliamentary committees. The Lebanese National Bloc said that Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was focused on renewing his term, while the country was racing against what it termed as “a big collapse” and the health sector was warning of the imminent collapse of hospitals. Berri is expected to win reelection for the sixth time, despite opposition from Christian parties and opposition parliamentary blocs. Berri should receive around 60 votes from members of his bloc, Hezbollah’s deputies and his allies’ deputies, far less than the 98 votes out of 128 he obtained in the previous parliament. One political observer said that the position of deputy speaker, which is reserved for an Orthodox deputy, had almost been secured for MP Elias Bou Saab from the Free Patriotic Movement bloc, although the bloc refuses to vote for Berri as speaker. On Friday, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 38,000 pounds, creating unprecedented chaos in all sectors and leading to popular anger.
The dollar rate started to decrease rapidly after central bank governor Riad Salameh announced on Friday that individuals and institutions are able buy dollars from banks at the Sayrafa rate on a daily basis. Commercial markets witnessed a state of shock on Saturday. Some shops stopped selling goods as they waited to see if the dollar rate would stabilize at the beginning of next week. An employee in a private company said that she converted her LBP salary when the dollar rate was at its peak on Friday, fearing that it might lose more of its value if she kept the sum in Lebanese pounds. However, the significant drop of the exchange rate by 10,000 Lebanese pounds on Friday night shocked her, as the value of her salary significantly depreciated.
Finance Minister Youssef Khalil estimated the black market exchange volume at $5 million per day. The trading volume on the Sayrafa platform exceeds tens of millions of dollars per day, he said. “This means that the incontrollable increase of the dollar rate is not normal, which supports the hypothesis that some people would create this exchange rate gap and are responsible for the high black-market exchange rate for political and commercial reasons or to create panic in markets.” Economic expert Walid Abou Sleiman said that the central bank was intervening in the market to absorb the money supply in Lebanese pounds to prevent speculation and to reduce the margin in the financial market — namely the Sayrafa platform — where the rate exceeded 12,000 Lebanese pounds.
This procedure might be temporary, and contributes to the decrease of the dollar rate, he said, but added: “What matters is sustainability.”Abou Sleiman said that “combating speculation does not happen through these procedures, but through a central platform that limits the trading for purchases and sales.” The central bank governor has asked banks to keep their branches and funds open until 6 p.m. for three consecutive days from Monday to meet citizens’ requests to buy dollars at the Sayrafa price. The governor’s circulars are postponing the “explosion for a few days,” the Lebanese National Bloc pointed out. The bloc believes that the “collapse scenario could have been avoided if the needed reforms to restructure debt and the banking sector had been applied, in addition to taking the necessary decisions to unify the exchange rate and strengthen the administrative and judicial surveillance.”
The bloc also believed it could have also been avoided if Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet had not waited until its last session to propose its financial rescue plan in an attempt to circumvent the people and the international community, when throughout its mandate, it was busy protecting cartels and bankers. “The solution is to elect the parliament bodies and committees within the next week and start the electoral consultations to form a rescue government that does not adopt sectarian allocation,” it said. It called for implementing the financial reforms requested by the IMF and the formulation of an integrated plan to strengthen the economy.

In Lebanon, political instability could hamper economic reforms
The Arab Weekly/May 28/2022
A leading international credit ratings agency warned Friday that the results of this month’s parliamentary elections in Lebanon make it difficult for any coalition to have a governing majority, potentially complicating implementation of reforms. Shortly after the warning from Fitch Ratings, the Lebanese pound briefly hit new lows against the dollar, causing chaos in markets around the country. Lebanon is in the grips of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history. By late afternoon Friday, the pound made gains of nearly 20% after the central bank governor said those who have pounds and need dollars will be able to buy US currency through local banks as of next week at a rate lower than that of the black market. Governor Riad Salameh’s announcement appears to be another attempt to temporarily ease markets amid chaos related to the sharp drop of the pound, which has hit new lows on almost daily basis since the May 15 parliamentary elections brought a deeply-divided legislature. The new lows — reaching 37,900 pounds to the dollar — came after Fitch’s warning said that efforts by any camp to form a stable governing majority in parliament will face challenges, further complicating “the country’s ability to implement financial and economic reforms.” These reforms are preconditions for support from the International Monetary Fund and other international partners, which in turn could pave the way for Lebanon’s exit from default on its sovereign obligations. Despite easing markets, Salameh’s move likely means that the central bank will be using its dwindling foreign currency reserves, which have been dropping at a dramatic rate since Lebanon’s economic meltdown began in October 2019. After Salameh’s statement the dollar was selling for about 31,000 pounds. Lebanon’s economic crisis is rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the political elites that have dominated the country. Since the meltdown began, they have done almost nothing to implement reforms demanded by the international community to release billions of dollars in investments and loans.

Lebanese hospitals go on strike protesting economic crash
The Arab Weekly/May 28/2022
Dozens of doctors, nurses and medical personnel rallied Thursday outside the Central Bank in the Lebanese capital of Beirut after declaring a two-day general strike to protest rapidly-deteriorating economic conditions. The strike was called by two medical professionals' unions, the Syndicates of Doctors in Beirut and the North and the Syndicate of Private Hospital Owners, which say they can no longer put up with Central Bank policies which have allowed banks to impose random capital controls and other restrictions. During the strike, which ends Friday, only emergency cases and dialysis patients would be admitted to hospitals, the unions said. Lebanon’s medical sector, which up until a few years ago was among the best in the Middle East, is on the brink of collapse, barely surviving the country’s unprecedented economic and financial meltdown. The crisis, which started in October 2019, has seen the local currency lose more than 95% of its value against the dollar, wiping out salaries and savings. The hardship has led to the emigration of thousands of doctors and nurses and the closure of a large number of pharmacies, as well as severe shortages in medicines and medical equipment. A number of hospitals has been warning they will have to close because they can no longer meet their expenses or pay their employees’ salaries. “Hospitals will close because there is no way they can continue. We have to pay cash when we have no access to cash,” said Suleiman Haroun, head of the private hospitals’ union, who joined the protest in Beirut along with a few hundred other colleagues. He blamed Central Bank policies for destroying the sector. Meanwhile, the Lebanese pound continued to hit new lows against the dollar, which was selling at around 35,600 pounds on the black market Wednesday. The Lebanese currency was pegged at 1,500 pounds to the dollar for 22 years until the crisis erupted in late 2019.

Lebanon: Politicians Warn against Total Collapse, Call for Swift Cabinet Formation
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Lebanese politicians are calling for the adoption of immediate measures to stop the deterioration of the country’s economic and social conditions. The head of the Kataeb Party, MP Sami Gemayel, called for the formation of a government with exceptional features. “We are heading towards collapse because they spent most of the reserves to protect themselves in the elections. If an exceptional government is not formed at an exceptional speed that enjoys exceptional confidence and takes exceptional steps, Lebanon will go into great chaos,” Gemayel wrote on Twitter, calling on everyone to assume their responsibilities. For his part, elected deputy Ashraf Rifi, said on his Twitter account: “The living conditions are no longer bearable... There is an urgent and primary need to support 550,000 Lebanese families, as well as the millions of Lebanese” who are threatened with poverty. He continued: “The rest of the money was spent on futile adventures. Immediate support for the people must be approved, and we will introduce a bill in this regard.” In turn, the elected deputy of the Lebanese Forces party, Ziad Hawat, called for the formation of a productive and effective government. “Have mercy on the people, after poverty and hunger are killing the Lebanese in every sense of the word. Change the approach and speed up the formation of a government, which would translate the results of the elections that expressed the desire for change and sovereignty.” These warnings come with the worsening conditions in various the sectors. The Ministry of Economy announced on Friday an increase in the price of bread, due to “the rapid rise in the exchange rate of the dollar, as well as the significant increase in the price of fuel, which directly affects the price of flour production and the costs of bread and transportation, in addition to the rise in the price of wheat in global markets as a result of the Ukrainian crisis.”

Berri Rejects to Engage in ‘Bargains’ in Exchange for His Re-election as Lebanon’s Speaker
Beirut - Mohamed Choucair/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Outgoing Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the eldest MP in the new parliament, has called for a parliamentary session on Tuesday to elect the speaker, the deputy speaker and the members of the speaker’s office, to pave the way for the formation of a new government. According to well-informed sources, Berri has called for the session, regardless of the number of deputies who will vote in his favor, in order to reject claims that his non-election would hinder the formation of a new government. According to the sources, Berri was keen to call for holding the session within the constitutional deadlines, because he would not allow suspending the parliamentary process until he secures his re-election by a majority of 65 deputies, i.e. half the number of Parliament members plus one. If the parliamentary majority is not secured in the first two rounds, Berri may be re-elected in a third voting round, provided that the quorum required for its convening is complete. In the absence of any form of compromise, Tuesday’s parliamentary session will inevitably see multiple candidates for the position of deputy speaker, including new faces in the parliament. In this regard, sources close to the deputies representing the change movement told Asharq Al-Awsat that discussions were underway to draw up a unified road map and decide on a stance regarding the election of the parliament speaker. On the other hand, the Democratic Parliamentary Gathering, headed by MP Taymour Walid Jumblatt, said that it would deal “realistically” with the election of the speaker of parliament, as long as there is no candidate running against Berri. Sources close to the Gathering noted that its position on the election of the deputy speaker was currently subject to coordination with the other “sovereign forces.” The Free Patriotic Movement’s Change and Reform bloc decided to nominate MP Elias Bou Saab for the position of deputy speaker. The head of the FPM, MP Gebran Bassil, who rebelled against the will of his ally Hezbollah, stated that he would not support the re-election of Berri unconditionally. Berri, for his part, was quoted as saying that he would not engage in “bargains” in exchange for his election.

Prominent Journalist Rajeh Khoury Passes Away
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Prominent Lebanese journalist Rajeh Khoury passed away on Friday after a battle with illness, leaving behind a long professional career that has enriched the Lebanese and regional media, including Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. An-Nahar newspaper mourned on Friday the death of Khoury, saying that it has lost one of its “pillars and senior writers in the dark nights of Lebanon.” It added that his painful departure was a great loss for the Lebanese and Arab press. The late journalist was “one of the distinguished, authentic writers from a generation of great men… who dedicated life and sacrifices for the sake of free speech, truth, and courage that knows no retreat or fear,” An-Nahar said. Khoury, who is originally from South Lebanon, worked with a number of press institutions, including Al-Aamal newspaper, Al-Hawadeth magazine, and Al-Hayat, Nidaa Al-Watan, An-Nahar and Asharq Al-Awsat newspapers. He wrote articles and political analyses and worked in the editorial department, local and world news departments, and investigative reporting. He was also a professor at the Faculty of Communication at the Lebanese University, devoting his life tirelessly to the journalism career until his last breath.

Fitch Ratings warns of elections' impact on Lebanese economy
Associated Press/May 28/2022
Leading international credit ratings agency Fitch has warned that the results of this month's parliamentary elections in Lebanon make it difficult for any coalition to have a governing majority, potentially complicating implementation of reforms. Lebanon is in the grips of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history. Carrying out reforms is a precondition for support from the International Monetary Fund and other international partners, which in turn could pave the way for Lebanon's exit from default on its sovereign obligations. Lebanon's economic crisis is rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the political elites that have dominated the country. Since the meltdown began, they have done almost nothing to implement reforms demanded by the international community to release billions of dollars in investments and loans.

Corona - MoPH: 94 new coronavirus cases, 1 new death in Lebanon
NNA/May 28/2022
Lebanon has recorded 94 new coronavirus cases and 1 new death in the past 24 hours, as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health on Saturday.

Ibrahim: We have no other choice but the state to build a new Lebanon
NNA/May 28/2022
Director General of Public Security, Major General Abbas Ibrahim affirmed that "we have no choice but the state and its institutions to build a new Lebanon as desired by the rising generations." Ibrahim spoke during a luncheon hosted in Zahle in his honor by Dr. Youssef Chaanin, in appreciation of his efforts in releasing Dr. Richard Kharrat. "Based on our humanitarian duty first and our professional duty second, we are in the General Directorate of Public Security and based on the tasks entrusted to us by law, we have never hesitated to pursue any Lebanese file that has problems abroad, and here we must thank the Emirates, which cooperated from the first moment with the General Directorate Public Security in the case of Dr. Richard Kharrat," Ibrahim added. He concluded by saying: "I take this opportunity to announce the continuation of coordination regarding the file of other Lebanese detainees, and for each case according to its circumstances."

Minister of Energy signs an exceptional schedule for oil prices
NNA/May 28/2022
Caretaker Minister of Energy and Water, Walid Fayyad, signed an exceptional schedule for the prices of oil derivatives, which includes gas and diesel, after the significant drop in the dollar exchange rate during the past few hours.
It is worth noting that the table does not include the price of gasoline, as the price of this substance is directly linked to the "Sayrafa" platform.
The prices became as follows:
Gasoline 95 octane 597000 liters
Gasoline 98 octane 608000 liters
Diesel 640 thousand
Gas 398000

Minister of Economy calls on traders to abide by updated pricing of exchange rate
NNA/May 28/2022
Minister of Trade and Economy, Amin Salam, called on all food traders and supermarket owners, to "commit fully to selling foodstuffs and all commodities according to the updated pricing of the exchange rate," warning against not committing or manipulating with the intent of monopolizing foodstuffs and commodities in order to achieve illegal profits. He concluded his statement by emphasizing that the Consumer Protection Directorate and all the supervisory authorities in the ministry, in coordination and accompaniment from the security services, will launch their patrols for inspection and take strict deterrent and punitive measures against anyone who tampers with the food security of the Lebanese.

Bou Saab, Berri meet
NNA/May 28/2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri met this afternoon in his Ain Teeneh residence with MP Elias Bou Saab. The MP left Ain Teeneh without making any statement.

Judge Aoun: Until when will people's fate be left to the control of the corrupt & wicked?
NNA/May 28/2022
Public Prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Judge Ghada Aoun, published a letter sent by Senator Nathalie Goulet to the French Premiership, explaining the harassment Aoun is being subjected to in an attempt to stop her work in the fight against corruption.
Aoun said on Twitter: "I publish Goulet's letter in which she asked the French government to explain the measures it will take to support Judge Aoun and her work for the benefit of an oppressed people. A very stark fact: the US dollar was at 38,000 Lebanese pounds. It fell within 24 hours to LBP 28,000 after I was referred to Discipline..a shame! But just as a reassurance, the one playing this vile game of the dollar peg is only giving an anesthetic and will work towards another rise in the dollar exchange rate once personal interests so dictate....Until when will the fate of the people be controlled by the corrupt and the wicked?

UNDP Regional Goodwill Ambassador Haddad to head to Norway on "Arctic Walk for Climate Resilience & Food Security"
NNA/May 28/2022
"UNDP Regional Goodwill Ambassador Michael Haddad kicks-off his journey to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault to deliver seeds from the Arab region," a press release indicated on Saturday. "Come join a distinguished group of well-wishers from the private sector, academia, civil society, and international partners bidding farewell to United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Regional Goodwill Ambassador, Michael Haddad as he starts his journey to Svalbard, Norway on his Arctic Walk for Climate Resilience & Food Security," the statement said.
"On 7 June 2022, Haddad intends to complete a symbolic walk of 5 Km. in Svalbard towards the Global Seed Vault. His walk aims to spotlight risks that climate change poses to global food security and the importance of preserving agricultural biodiversity, including the critical role that the Global Vault and associated network of regional and country seedbanks play in that vein," the statement added. "On the walk Haddad will carry with him a set of seed packets that are part of the official seed stocks intended by thirteen Arab countries for deposit in the Svalbard Global Seed Vault. The packets are provided by the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) in coordination with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)," the statement said.
"Paralyzed from the chest down at the age of six, and told that he could never walk again, Haddad will perform his odds-defying symbolic walk with the aid of a specially designed exoskeleton to keep him upright as he uses a pair of crutches to walk in the unique “step-to-gait” mechanism that he devised. A distinguished scientific team from the American University of Beirut (AUB) and the Lebanese American University (LAU) closely supports and follows Michael’s walking endeavours," the press release concluded.

National Media Council: The right to peaceful protest is protected by constitutions and international laws
NNA/May 28/2022
The Lebanese National Audiovisual Media affirmed in a statement today "the right to peaceful demonstration is protected by constitutions and international laws," wishing the security forces to respect the immunity enjoyed by media professionals. The council pointed out that "the right to peaceful demonstration is protected by constitutions and international laws, and the citizen has the natural right to access information through the journalists' performance of their mission to reveal the truth," hoping that the security forces would respect the immunity enjoyed by media professionals and distinguish between the peaceful movement, the absurd and riotous movement. Finally, the statement appealed to Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, to spare the military establishment and security forces any wrong practices that would harm its image and prestige, especially since all the Lebanese support this military institution and the security forces.

Labor Minister partakes in International Labor Conference in Geneva
NNA/May 28/2022
Caretaker Minister of Labor, Mustafa Bayram, participated today in the works of the International Labor Conference in its 110th session, which started yesterday at the United Nations headquarters in Geneva, remotely through the “Zoom” application, in his office in the ministry. The conference program was reviewed and opening speeches were given. Minister Bayram will deliver Lebanon's speech at the conference on the ninth of next month.

The Confusing Results of Lebanon’s Elections
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 28/2022
Looking at the figures, it is difficult to see how any Lebanese faction could form a parliamentary majority; even if it succeeded, its majority would be temporary. They have all lost seats and seen their grip over parliament loosen. Meanwhile, those trying to go at it alone and disregard the results, barricading themselves behind their source of power, have forgotten that the foundations of that power have become shaky, leaving its hegemony greatly undermined. This state of affairs was brought about on May 15. The confounding results of the elections held that day have left domestic forces and international players dumbfounded. They were bewildered because they could not explain the political ramifications of these results in the near or medium term- how these results will shape every major decision parliament takes and whether it will be paralyzed and delegitimize the country’s authorities and political system.
Indeed, the results of the latest election have forced Lebanese political and cultural elites to read the situation with caution and avert the threats presented by the dominant powers’ refusal to acknowledge the political implications of the results. This gridlock brings the schism that defined Lebanese political life on the eve of the civil war, between those who believed that they obtained their rights through arms and those who believed they could maintain their privileges through arms. After the results of the 2022 elections, Lebanon has become split in a similar fashion today, albeit with some crucial differences. One side denies the figures; calculating instead based on balances of power, it sees its arsenal as a privilege it is entitled to. On the other side, we have a new political class that considers reforming the system, both politically and economically, to be its prerogative.
The former, after the elections, linked its political standing, as well as that of its allies, to its arsenal. As for the latter, it is a group of factions who have come together without forming an alliance, and this group refuses to recognize the privilege of the former and is keen on confronting it. Of course, it does not intend to face the former’s arms with arms, as Lebanese writer Hazem Saghieh pointed out in his latest article for Asharq al-Awsat. “That, however, obviously does not imply support for suicidal idiotic decisions like facing weapons with weapons.” “Nonetheless,” he adds, “pacifist naivety should not be the only alternative to suicidal idiocy.”
Hezbollah rejects linking the loss of its majority to the roles it plays as an armed force, which brings the collapse of the Soviet Union to mind. The Soviet Union’s immense arsenal could not provide its citizens with bread in 1989 or prevent its collapse in 1991. The difference in scale, here, is immense. Nonetheless, it is a simple example of the sort of threats Lebanon will face in the near term, especially as the party arrogantly tries to disregard the results and conceals its uneasiness with the results and confusion about how to address them by emphasizing the need to discuss day to day needs.
While such calls continue to come with warnings that it is prepared to disrupt political life and clash with rivals if need be, the party has resorted to violence and the use of military force at several junctures- especially given the crisis and the state of the economy- will likely carefully assess the state of play before endeavoring to start this kind of misadventure. In practice, the results have created confusion on all levels and reinforced fears of a clash between the traditional parties and the reformists, who reject the logic of wheeling and dealing but have a limited capacity to obstruct it. That means Lebanon is likely to see a legislative vacuum (because it is difficult to predict whether a parliamentary session will be held and Nabih Berri will be elected parliamentary speaker), a vacuum in the executive (since rival blocs agreeing to a consensus prime minister seem unlikely) and this will inevitably impact parliament’s election of a new President in October. And so, the confusing election results have created political confusion. While it opens the door to establishing a movement for change, it has also created an impasse that needs untraditional solutions of the sort that the Lebanese have become accustomed to seeing whenever faced with a similar crisis. May God protect what remains of Lebanon.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 28-29/2022
Drone Targets Iran's Parchin Military Base
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108981/%d8%af%d8%b1%d9%88%d9%86%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d8%b1%d8%ac%d8%ad-%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%82%d8%b5%d9%81%d8%aa-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%a3%d8%a9-%d8%a8/
A drone targeted a highly sensitive military site outside Tehran where Iran develops missile, nuclear, and drone technology, according to media reports. The New York Times quoted three Iranian sources and a US official saying that the drone exploded into a building used by the Ministry of Defense for research on drone development, killing a young engineer who worked at the ministry and injuring another person. Informed Iranian sources said that a quadcopter drone had taken off from close to the Parchin military base. There was no immediate claim of responsibility, but the attack is similar to the one that targeted the Iran Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA) in Karaj last June, Iran attributed to Israel.The New York Times reported that the attack fits a pattern of past Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon in a covert campaign of hostility that has been going on for years. Tasnim News referred to an "industrial accident," but the Iranian Ministry of Defense statement said a person died in an incident without providing details. Israeli officials declined to comment. A US official confirmed that suicide drones had attacked Parchin but did not say who was behind it or offer further details. If confirmed, the attack would be the second of its kind targeting a center for Iranian drones, after an attack in early February, which targeted a facility near Kermanshah used for manufacturing and storage facility for military drones. The incident came days after a colonel in the al-Quds Force was killed in front of his house in Tehran. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) identified the man as Col. Sayad Khodayee and said he had fought for years in Syria as part of Iran's military deployment. According to one intelligence official, Israel told Washington that it was behind his killing. The Israelis intended it as a warning to Iran to stop targeting Israeli citizens abroad.
Meanwhile, National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata will travel to Washington next week to talk about a regional security project that Israel wishes to involve several regional countries to confront Iran. Hulata will meet with his White House counterpart Jake Sullivan and other US officials to discuss President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Israel and the stalled nuclear talks with Iran.
Hulata will travel to Washington with a delegation of national security, foreign policy, and intelligence officials who will hold another round of talks at the US-Israel strategic forum on Iran. Media reports based on some Israeli government officials stated that Hulata and his team want to continue discussing a possible "Plan B" for a scenario where the US does not return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran soon. Israeli officials say they want the US and its European allies to push for a censure resolution against Iran at the upcoming International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors meeting in June. The advisor has led a tough line on Iran but at the same time encouraged Prime Minister Naftali Bennett to avoid public clashes and maintain good relations with the Biden administration. Israeli officials said Hulata stressed in a security cabinet meeting that Israel would have to continue working closely with the Biden administration on Iran with or without a return to a deal. An Israeli official told Channel 12 that the Israeli security services feared aboard operations in retaliation for the assassination of Khodayee. The channel indicated that senior Israeli officials had held a series of consultations on this issue. Officials may soon decide to increase travel warnings concerning visiting countries near Iran, adding that it is not about raising the travel warning level but rather about setting guidelines. The channel quoted an Israeli source saying that Hulata will raise in Washington the issue of leaking news that the Israeli government informed White House officials that Khodayee was leading a secret unit in the al-Quds Force and that Israel had assassinated him.

Gunmen kill policeman in Iran's southeast
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Gunmen shot dead a policeman and wounded his wife in Iran's restive southeastern province of Sistan-Baluchistan, state media reported Saturday. "Last night... police captain Abbas Rahanjam was martyred and his wife was wounded," after they were shot by armed assailants, Khodabakhsh Pakirshahi, a deputy governor of the province's Delgan county was quoted as saying by state news agency IRNA. The shooting took place on the road from Delgan to Iranshahr city, the official said, adding that the captain's wife was transferred to hospital for treatment. Assailants "using Kalashnikov rifles", fired at the police officer's car, and "ran away from the scene," said provincial police chief Ahmad Taheri, according to the ISNA news agency. "Police investigations have been launched to identify and arrest the on-the-run perpetrators" he added. The province, bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan, is often hit by attacks or clashes between security forces and armed groups, generally involving smuggling gangs as well as separatists or extremist groups. Three members of the police, including a colonel, were killed in clashes with an armed group in the province in November, state media reported at the time.

Russian army confirms capture of Ukraine's Lyman town
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Russia's army Saturday confirmed it had seized the strategic town of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, on the road to two key cities still under Kyiv's control. "Following the joint actions of the units of the militia of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Russian armed forces, the town of Lyman has been entirely liberated from Ukrainian nationalists," the defense ministry said in a statement, confirming an announcement a day earlier by pro-Moscow separatists.

Ukraine says 'everything' being done to defend Donbas from Russian onslaught
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Ukraine has said it is doing "everything" to defend Donbas, where an intensifying Russian offensive is prompting Kyiv's forces to consider a strategic retreat from some key areas to avoid being surrounded. Russia is waging all-out war for the eastern Donetsk and Lugansk regions that make up Donbas -- Ukraine's industrial heartland where President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Moscow of carrying out a "genocide."In his daily address to Ukrainians, Zelensky said the Russians had "concentrated maximum artillery, maximum reserves in Donbas.""There are missile strikes and aircraft attacks -- everything," he said. "We are protecting our land in the way that our current defense resources allow," he added. "We are doing everything to increase them." Pro-Russian separatists said Friday they had captured the town of Lyman between Severodonetsk and Kramatorsk, on the road to the key cities still under Kyiv's control. Russian forces are also closing in on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Lugansk province, with conflicting reports about the extent of their advance. Regional governor Sergiy Gaiday insisted Ukrainian forces would be able to resist for at least another two or three days -- but said troops may have to withdraw from some areas to avoid being surrounded. "Most probably they (Russian troops) will not seize (Lugansk), because there's enough strength and means to hold the defense," he said on Telegram. "Maybe even to avoid encircling there might be a command to our troops to retreat."
'Escalation'
A Lugansk police official, cited by Russia's state news agency RIA Novosti, said Severodonetsk was "now surrounded" and Ukrainian troops could no longer leave the city. That was denied by senior city official Oleksandr Stryuk, though he acknowledged the situation was "very difficult" with incessant bombing.
"People are willing to risk everything to get food and water," said the head of the main aid distribution center in Lysychansk, Oleksandr Kozyr. "They are so psychologically depressed that they are no longer scared. All they care about is finding food." As the country faces an increasingly desperate humanitarian situation, an Australian man was on Saturday reported to have been killed this week while supplying aid. A death notice appeared in Tasmania's Mercury newspaper identifying the man as Michael Charles O'Neill, 47, with a tribute on Facebook saying he had been "driving the wounded and injured from the front line".An Australian foreign affairs department spokesperson confirmed the death in a statement but said they could not provide further details due to privacy concerns. Three months after Russia launched its invasion on February 24, leaving thousands dead on both sides and forcing 6.6 million people out of the country, Moscow has gained control over swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine, including port cities Kherson and Mariupol. "Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall," said the US-based Institute for the Study of War. To further help Ukraine fight back against the invasion, Washington was preparing to send advanced long-range rocket systems, according to US media reports. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby did not confirm the plans to deliver the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System, a highly mobile system capable of firing up to 300 kilometers (186 miles) that Kyiv has said it badly needs. "We are still committed to helping them succeed on the battlefield," Kirby said. Mykhaylo Podolyak, an adviser to President Zelensky, said on Twitter that some of Ukraine's partners "avoid giving the necessary weapons because of fear of the escalation. Escalation, really?"
'Suffering' -
In a historic move against Russia's spiritual authorities, the Moscow branch of Kyiv's Orthodox Church said Friday it was cutting ties with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, declaring "full independence". A church council condemned the pro-war stance of Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church. "Not only did he fail to condemn Russia's military aggression but he also failed to find words for the suffering Ukrainian people," church spokesman Archbishop Kliment told AFP. Ukraine has been under Moscow's spiritual leadership since at least the 17th century, but part of its Orthodox Church broke with Moscow in 2019 over Russia's annexation of Crimea and support for separatists in Donbas. Seeking to build on the international pressure on Russia, Zelensky will speak with EU leaders at an emergency summit Monday as they try to agree on an embargo on Russian oil, which is being held up by Hungary, whose Prime Minister Viktor Orban has close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Rather than continue trading with (Russia), we need to act until they stop their policy of aggression," Zelensky told a think tank in Indonesia. But in Moscow, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said Russia expects to receive one trillion rubles ($15 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues this year, a windfall from the sharp rise in oil prices caused in part by its invasion of Ukraine. As his navy blockades Ukrainian ports, Putin also rejected accusations that he was using food shortages as a weapon. Russia and Ukraine supply about 30 percent of the wheat traded on global markets. Russia has tightened its own exports and Ukraine has vast amounts stuck in storage, driving up prices and cutting availability for importers across the globe. In a call Friday with Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer, Putin put the blame on "anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the European Union, among other things," according to the Kremlin. He also accused Kyiv of "sabotaging" negotiations and urged Ukraine to de-mine ports "as soon as possible" to allow the passage of grain-carrying vessels, the Kremlin said.

Russia Shows Off Zircon Hypersonic Cruise Missile in Test-launch
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Russia successfully test-fired a hypersonic Zircon cruise missile over a distance of about 1,000 km (625 miles), the defense ministry said on Saturday. The missile was fired from the Barents Sea and hit a target in the White Sea, it said. Video released by the ministry showed the missile being fired from a ship and blazing into the sky on a steep trajectory, Reuters reported. President Vladimir Putin has described the Zircon as part of a new generation of unrivalled arms systems. Hypersonic weapons can travel at nine times the speed of sound, and Russia has conducted previous test-launches of the Zircon from warships and submarines in the past year. Russia's military has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment during its three-month invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a "special operation", but it has continued to stage high-profile weapons tests to remind the world of its prowess in missile technology. Last month it test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental missile, the Sarmat, capable of carrying 10 or more warheads and striking the United States.

New Israeli Poll Brings Back Hope to Netanyahu
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
A new poll, published on Friday, has shown that Israel’s opposition led by Benjamin Netanyahu is close to getting the majority of seats while the government would probably lose eight seats (13 percent) of its power. Lawmaker David Bitan spoke with Radio 103FM Friday, following the release of the poll which projects the Netanyahu bloc – the Likud, United Torah Judaism, Shas, and Religious Zionist Party – receiving just 59 seats. Bitan predicted: “Only Netanyahu can get 61 seats. You can put me on record saying it: We will get more than 61 seats in the next election.”The poll was published in The Jerusalem Post and Maariv to increase conviction that PM Naftali Bennet’s government would collapse soon. The poll found that 65 percent of Israelis are not satisfied with the performance of the Prime Minister, and only 30 percent said he is performing well. Experts agree that this government can’t last until the end of its term. Although the opposition is also facing a crisis and is incapable of garnering the majority, the recent polls' results restore hope in achieving a progress that would bring the opposition back to power. According to the poll, 69 percent of respondents don’t want an Arab party in the next government, only 22 percent want one, and nine percent don’t know. The survey shows that the Arab MPs' influence at the Knesset is increasing and the government is forced to abstain from ignoring them. The United Arab List alone can be decisive and guarantee the battle in favor of Netanyahu. In return, there is the Joint List that consists of three Arab parties led by Ayman Odeh. The list becomes a decisive power according to the poll, and it is endorsing an objective policy towards the Arabs’ rights but refuses to be part of the coalition.

UN Experts: Libya's Security Threatened by Foreign Fighters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
Libya faces a serious security threat from foreign fighters and private military companies, especially Russia’s Wagner Group which has violated international law, UN experts said in a report obtained by The Associated Press. The experts also accused seven Libyan armed groups of systematically using unlawful detention to punish perceived opponents, ignoring international and domestic civil rights laws, including laws prohibiting torture. In particular, "migrants have been extremely vulnerable to human rights abuses and regularly subjected to acts of slavery, rape and torture,” the panel said in the report to the UN Security Council obtained late Friday by the AP. An October 2020 cease-fire deal led to an agreement on a transitional government in early February 2021 and elections were scheduled for last Dec. 24 aimed at unifying the country. But they were canceled and the country now has rival governments with two Libyans claiming to be prime minister. The cease-fire agreement called for the speedy withdrawal of all foreign fighters and mercenaries but the panel said “there has been little verifiable evidence of any large-scale withdrawals taking place to date.”

US Issues Sanctions Targeting North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction Program
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
The United States on Friday imposed sanctions on two Russian banks, a North Korean company and a person it accused of supporting North Korea's weapons of mass destruction program, increasing pressure on Pyongyang over its renewed ballistic missile launches.
The latest American move came a day after China and Russia vetoed a US-led push to impose more United Nations sanctions on North Korea over its ballistic missile launches, publicly splitting the UN Security Council for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.
The vetoes came despite what the United States says was a sixth test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by North Korea this year and signs that Pyongyang is preparing to conduct its first nuclear test since 2017. The US Treasury Department in a statement said it targeted Air Koryo Trading Corp as well as Russian financial institutions the Far Eastern Bank and Bank Sputnik for contributing to procurement and revenue generation for North Korean organizations. Washington also designated Jong Yong Nam, a Belarus-based representative of an organization subordinate to the North Korea Second Academy of Natural Sciences (SANS), who Washington said has supported North Korean organizations linked to the development of ballistic missiles. North Korea's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. "The United States will continue to implement and enforce existing sanctions while urging the DPRK (North Korea) to return to a diplomatic path and abandon its pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles," the Treasury's Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, Brian Nelson, said in the statement.

Devil is in the Details of Iraq's New Law Criminalizing Normalization with Israel
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 28 May, 2022
No sooner had Iraq's parliament approved the law against normalizing ties with Israel than issues arose amid fears of "conflicts" with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil. On Thursday, 275 Iraqi lawmakers voted in favor of a bill criminalizing the normalization of ties and any relations, including business ties, with Israel. The legislation says that violation of the law is punishable with the death sentence or life imprisonment. Experts fear the Iraqi parliament's decision would put the country on the list of countries that the US could target. Some even indicated that Iraq had determined its position by joining the so-called "resistance front" against Israel, while others worry it might harm the country's relations with Arab and Islamic nations that have normalized relations with Israel. However, several observers believe that the law will be counterproductive as it paves the way for normalization through special approvals from the Ministry of Interior for Jews who want to visit some Jewish monuments in Iraq. According to several experts, the issue of normalization between Iraq and Israel was not up for discussion to have a law issued, especially since Iraq is going through serious problems and crises that should be addressed, notably the issue of forming a new cabinet. Iraq is almost the only Arab country that participated in the war against Israel in 1948, despite not having shared borders. Regardless of its political systems, Baghdad remains at war with Tel Aviv because it did not sign the armistice agreement.
Iraq launched about 49 missiles at Israel during the war to liberate Kuwait in 1991. The leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, who proposed the law, asserted in a tweet that he is not hostile to religions but to extremism, terrorism, and injustice.
"We protect Christian and Jewish minorities, and you are expelling Arabs and Muslims. We condemn ISIS, and you support Western extremism," he added.
Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah hailed the law, while the UK announced it was barbaric, and the US said it was deeply disturbed by it. "In addition to jeopardizing freedom of expression and promoting an environment of antisemitism, this legislation stands in stark contrast to the progress Iraq's neighbors have made by building bridges and normalizing relations with Israel, creating new opportunities for people throughout the region," read the State Department statement. It asserted that the US would continue to be a strong and unwavering partner in supporting Israel, including as it expands ties with its neighbors to pursue greater peace and prosperity for all. The new law will widen the rift between Iraq and Kurdistan, especially since the latter is accused of selling oil to Israel. Advisor of Masoud Barzani Arafat Karam confirmed that the Kurdish vote in the Federal Parliament on a law criminalizing normalization with Israel does not mean Erbil has joined the resistance front. Member of the State of Law Coalition Haider al-Lami told Rudaw that various parties tried to pressure Shiite figures into normalizing relations with Israel, which prompted those leaders to approve the new legislation. Lami said there are no peace treaties between Baghdad and Tel Aviv, adding that Iraq is in a state of war with Israel. The official explained that many reports claimed that several Kurdish figures had relations with Israeli politicians, but Kurdish President Nechirvan Barzani denied it repeatedly. Law expert Majid Majbas described the law as necessary, adding that Iraqi legislators have not recognized Israel and support the right of the Palestinian people to establish a state. Majbas explained to Iraqi News Agency (INA) that the Iraqi Penal Code in Article 201 explicitly refers to the criminalization of all forms of cooperation with the Israeli entity, whether a "person who promotes or acclaims Zionist principles including freemasonry or who associates himself with, Zionist organizations or assists them by giving material or moral support or works in any way towards the realization of Zionist objectives."

Iran, Saudi talks yield ‘minimal progress’, no meeting in near future
The Arab Weekly/May 28/2022
An official from the Saudi foreign ministry said on Thursday that no meeting between Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers has been scheduled in the foreseeable future, adding that some progress had been made in talks with Teheran but “it’s not enough.”“Iran must build confidence for future cooperation and there are several issues that can be discussed with Tehran if it has the desire to de-escalate tensions in the region,” the official said. Shia-majority Iran and the Sunni kingdom of Saudi Arabia support rival sides in several conflicts, including in Yemen, where Tehran backs the Houthi militias and Riyadh leads a military coalition supporting the government. In 2016, Iranian protesters attacked Saudi diplomatic missions in the Islamic republic after the kingdom executed revered Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr. Riyadh responded by cutting ties with Tehran. Tensions between the two countries spiked in 2019 after an assault on Saudi oil plants that Riyadh blamed on Iran and its Houthi proxies in Yemen. Amir-Abdollahian had said on Thursday that Iran has made “minimal but good progress” in relations with Saudi Arabia, adding that he may meet his Saudi counterpart soon in a third country. He also told the World Economic Forum in Davos that Iran still saw the removal of Western economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic as a key stumbling block in nuclear talks. He said Tehran believed US President Joe Biden’s administration was continuing his predecessor Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy and needed to take quick decisions on removing sanctions in order to see progress at the talks.

Massive support ship to expand Iran’s reach to new waters
The Arab Weekly/May 28/2022
Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is building a massive new support ship near the strategic Strait of Hormuz as it tries to expand its naval presence in waters vital to international energy supplies and beyond, satellite photos show. The construction of the Shahid Mahdavi provides the Guard a large, floating base from which to run the small fast boats that largely make up its fleet designed to counter the US Navy and other allied forces in the region. Its arrival, however, comes after a series of setbacks for both the Guard and Iran’s regular navy, including the loss of its largest warship less than a year earlier. As negotiations over Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers also founder, further confrontations at sea between Tehran and the West also remain a risk. “They are looking beyond the Persian Gulf and into the blue waters of the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea and the northern Indian Ocean,” said Farzin Nadimi, an associate fellow at the Washington Institute for Near-East Policy who studies the Iranian military. The Shahid Mahdavi appears to be a retrofit of an Iranian cargo ship known as the Sarvin, based off of previous pictures of the vessel which also has a similar curve to its hull.
The Sarvin arrived off Bandar Abbas in late July last year and then switched off its trackers. By January 29, satellite photos from Planet Labs PBC showed the vessel at drydock at Shahid Darvishi Marine Industries, a company associated with Iran’s Defense Ministry just west of Bandar Abbas. An image of the Shahid Mahdavi circulated first on social media. The ship appears to have crewed anti-aircraft weapons on its bow and stern, according to H.I. Sutton, a military ship expert who first identified the ship as being near Bandar Abbas. A flag for the Revolutionary Guard, showing its logo of a fist gripping an assault rifle with a Quran underneath and a globe behind it, hangs from the ship’s bridge. A high-resolution Planet image taken of the drydock Saturday showed the gun-metal gray Shahid Mahdavi still at the shipyard. Just next to it, one of Iran’s Kilo-class, diesel-powered attack submarines appears to be undergoing a major overhaul. Iran is believed to have one Kilo-class sub that’s operational while another is also nonfunctional, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. As the image of the Shahid Mahdavi circulated online, the semiofficial Fars news agency ran a story about the ship. Fars, believed to be close to the Guard, described the vessel as a “mobile naval city” capable of “ensuring the security of Iran’s trade lines, as well as the rights of Iranian sailors and fishermen in the high seas.”“This range of new defense and combat innovations for the construction of heavy vessels, in line with the mass development of light vessels, and equipping them with various arrays can maintain Iran’s authority over the Persian Gulf and the (Gulf) of Oman always in the face of transregional enemies,” Fars said. Such floating bases have been used before in the region, particularly by the US Navy during the 1980s so-called “Tanker War” after Iraq invaded Iran. As Iranian mines detonated against crude oil shippers amid that war, the Navy began escorting ships out of the Arabian Gulf through its narrow mouth, the Strait of Hormuz. The strait to this day sees a fifth of all oil traded pass through it.
During the conflict, US Special Forces operated from commercial barges that served as forward operating bases. The Navy still works with the idea today — the Mideast-based 5th Fleet has been home to the USS Lewis B. Puller, a massive ship designed off an oil tanker that can host troops and attack helicopters. “The Shahid Mahdavi looks like it will be configured to be an afloat forward staging base, to use the US Navy term,” said Michael Connell, an expert on Iran at the Virginia-based Centre for Naval Analyses. “The Puller was parked for many years in the Persian Gulf and the Iranian military witnessed its utility as a platform for expeditionary warfare and power projection.”
For years, the Guard patrolled the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf, while Iran’s regular navy patrolled the seas and oceans beyond. Building the Shahid Mahdavi likely gives the Guard the ability to expand its presence into those waters once patrolled by the navy.
History also isn’t something that has escaped Iran. The choice of the name for the Guard’s newest ship — Shahid Mahdavi, or Martyr Mahdavi — comes from Nader Mahdavi, an Iranian Guardsman killed by the US Navy in 1987 during the “Tanker War.”
America’s killing of Mahdavi, which came after his forces opened fire on US Special Forces helicopters, still resonates in Iran today. Tehran has alleged without evidence that America captured him alive and tortured him due to the condition of his body after it was returned. The American helicopters had strafed the Iranian vessels Mahdavi oversaw with machine guns, rockets and “fléchette” rounds — small metal darts. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself once gave a speech with a portrait of Mahdavi near him in 2019. That was around the time of a series of mine attacks on Mideast shipping that the US Navy blamed on Iran amid the collapse of Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. Using Mahdavi’s name suggests the Guard views this as a means by which to challenge the US Navy in the Middle East, particularly with the new ship likely able to support the so-called “swarm attacks” Iran can launch against larger American warships. Commander Timothy Hawkins, a 5th Fleet spokesman, declined to comment specifically about the Shahid Mahdavi as “we’re careful not to discuss intelligence-related matters.”“But generally speaking, we pay very close attention to the maritime environment with our international partners in the interest of regional security and stability,” Hawkins said.
The arrival of the Shahid Mahdavi, which would be the biggest ship in the Guard’s fleet, comes amid a series of naval disasters for Iran. The Kharg, the regular navy’s largest warship, sunk last June. In 2020, a missile mistakenly struck a naval vessel during an exercise, killing 19 sailors and wounding 15. An Iranian navy destroyer sank in the Caspian Sea in 2018. Meanwhile, a cargo ship in the Red Sea believed to be a Guard intelligence base suffered an explosion suspected to be caused by Israel last year. The Shahid Mahdavi could serve a similar role in espionage and sabotage missions by special forces, said Nadimi, the analyst at the Washington Institute. It also could be potentially outfitted with long-range missiles as well. “Nasty things can happen around this ship,” Nadimi warned.

As Russia stumbles in war, Turkey and Kazakhstan sense opportunity
Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/May 28/2022
As the war in Ukraine exposes Russia’s political and military weaknesses, countries once firmly in the Kremlin’s orbit are engaged in a frantic reshuffling of geopolitical alliances. The burgeoning relationship between Kazakhstan and Turkey is among the most active examples.
Kazakhstan, long a Russian ally in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and a member of the Moscow-led Eurasian Union, is being wooed by Turkish investment and military hardware. Although Kazakhstan’s economy is and will likely remain heavily-linked to Russia, at least in the short term, Ankara is gradually developing close ties with Nur-Sultan in a bid to strengthen its own position in the region. Not long ago, Russia’s hold on Kazakhstan looked secure. Following mass violent protests that paralysed Kazakhstan in early January, Russia and other CSTO countries deployed some 2,000 troops to the former Soviet republic, allegedly to stabilise the situation in the energy-rich nation. As a result, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev consolidated his power while Russia played the role of saviour. But Russia’s gains were temporary and the invasion of Ukraine has strained relations between leaders in Moscow and Nur-Sultan. Kazakhstan has not endorsed the Kremlin’s military activities and has even begun sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine. President Tokayev also decided not to hold a traditional Victory Day parade in the capital on May 9, sending a symbolic message to the Kremlin that Kazakhstan is looking to leave Russia’s sphere of influence. More importantly, Kazakhstan has refused to recognise the Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic, as well as the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea. And because Moscow has not pushed Nur-Sultan for support, Kazakhstan has continued to pursue its own “multi-vector” foreign policy
Closer military ties with Turkey are one element of this multi-vector approach. Two days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Olzhas Kusainov, head of the Kazakhstan defence ministry’s International Cooperation Department, met Fatih Pala, the Turkish military attaché in Nur-Sultan. Then in early May, President Tokayev visited his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Ankara, where the two nations agreed to co-produce Turkey’s Anka drone and to hold joint drills near Turkey’s coastal city of Izmir this spring.
Kazakhstan is also planning significant increases to its military budget and some experts point to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the impetus. For instance, there are fears that Moscow may have territorial claims to northern Kazakhstan, where ethnic Russians make up the majority of the population. While any attempt to annex parts of Kazakhstan seem unrealistic at the moment, given Russia’s poor showing in Ukraine, Kazakhstan will continue strengthening military ties with regional allies such as Turkey as a hedge against further Russian expansionism. Besides defence, Turkey and Kazakhstan are strengthening economic cooperation. Presidents Erdogan and Tokayev signed more than a dozen agreements during their meeting this month, deals in areas such as information technology, culture, agriculture and education. Ankara and Nur-Sultan are even said to be developing transport ties to bypass Russia via the Trans-Caspian international transport route, which travels through China, Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey and onward to Europe. Meanwhile, total trade volume between Turkey and Kazakhstan now exceeds $5.3 billion annually and Erdogan has pledged to push that to $10 billion. While this is still less than half of the $25.5 billion in trade that Kazakhstan does with Russia, the potential for trade with Turkey feels exponential. Many believe that Turkey’s interests in Kazakhstan and in Central Asia in general, are part of Erdogan’s ambitions to establish a neo-Ottoman Empire, a so-called Turkic World. But even if there is an element of truth in that assumption, it is also true that Turkey’s goals are driven by economic interests that are heavily-linked with energy. Kazakhstan is a petroleum powerhouse, with some three percent of the world’s proven oil reserves. It is also one of the world’s largest producers of uranium and among the top ten producers of coal, iron and gold. Thus, in order to reduce its energy dependence on Moscow, Ankara may have little choice but to increase its influence in Kazakhstan. Although Russia still has significant leverage in Kazakhstan, due to territorial proximity, cultural ties and Kazakhstan’s economic integration in the Eurasian Union, Turkey can offer something that Russia cannot: a clean slate. Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine could significantly impact the Kremlin’s position in Central Asia and in Kazakhstan in particular. If Russia were to suffer an humiliating defeat, Nur-Sultan would seek security assurances elsewhere. And Turkey, eager to make its own mark on regional politics, is already preparing the ground for such an outcome.

Biden Nominates Michael Singh for U.S. Institute of Peace Board
Michael Singh/The Washington Institute/May 28/2022
Washington, D.C. - President Joe Biden has nominated two Institute-affiliated professionals for membership on the board of directors of the prestigious U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP): Lane-Swig Senior Fellow Michael Singh and former Rosenblatt Visiting Fellow Kathryn Wheelbarger. “We could not be more delighted that the President has named these two eminent foreign policy practitioners for the USIP Board,” stated Institute Executive Director Robert Satloff. “Through their service at the highest levels of government and contributions to our public debates over strategy and policy, Mike and Katie have embodied the attributes of professionalism, expertise, and commitment to advance the national interest." Mike is the Institute’s managing director and interim director of its Diane and Guilford Glazer Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East. In the George W. Bush administration, he served as senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council as well as special assistant to secretaries of state Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice. He later served as co-chair of the Congressionally-mandated Syria Study Group and served on the Congressional Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States. In addition, he co-chaired Mitt Romney’s State Department transition team in 2012 and served as Middle East advisor to the Romney campaign. Mike also serves on the “Welcome Council” of Welcome.US, a bipartisan initiative to empower Americans to welcome refugees.
Katie, the Rosenblatt Visiting Fellow in 2021, is currently vice president for future concepts at Lockheed Martin Government Affairs, where she leads a team focused on encouraging advanced technological solutions to global security challenges. She held a number of important positions in government agencies and on Capitol Hill, including acting assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs in the Trump administration; policy director and counsel for the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Services; deputy staff director and senior counsel on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence; counsel to Vice President Richard Cheney; and counselor to Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff. The nominations must be approved by the Senate. The United States Institute of Peace is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical and essential for U.S. and global security.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 28-29/2022
Russia: Lone Wolf of the Steppes
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/May 28/2022
Whatever its outcome, the Russian war against Ukraine, now in its fourth month, is already studied by many analysts with emphasis on two issues. First, will it put an end to Vladimir Putin’s ambition to surround his Russia with autocratic regimes or “illiberal democracies”?
Of the 15 nations that emerged as independent entities after the fall of the Soviet Union, only three, the Baltic republics, have managed to build Western-style capitalist democracies, becoming full members of the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). However, all three, annexed by Stalin, were never fully Sovietized.
I remember that during a visit to Latvia in August 1974 our “minder” from Moscow observed that Riga, the Latvian capital, was “almost like Europe.”
Putin has no problem with Belarus, which has remained a Soviet-style state closely linked to Moscow.
Despite occasional anti-Moscow musings by the ruling elites, the Soviet system also remains the model in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
In the Caucasus, only Georgia tried to “Westernize” but had to backpedal in 2008 after Putin invaded and snatched away South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Azerbaijan, gripped by an identity crisis, has tried to keep the Soviet system while forging an alliance with Turkey and Israel with “special relations” with the US as a varnish.
Armenia tried to distance itself from the Soviet model but had to backpedal when forced to call in Russian troops to protect it against the Turkish-Azerbaijani threat.
Against that background, the future course of Ukrainian destiny assumed special importance. Ukraine is the second most populated nation, after Russia, to emerge from the debris of the Soviet Empire. Moreover, ethnic Ukrainian and/or mixed Russo-Ukrainians number almost 2.5 million in the Russian federation. Ukraine is the only post-Soviet republic that has the wherewithal to compete with if not actually challenge Russia in cultural, scientific, literary and religious fields by offering an alternative model to that shaped by Putin and his neo-Slavophils.
Even if we assume that Putin is a prisoner in his own fantasy world there is no doubt that he is capable of seeing Ukraine as an existential threat to regain his terms of politics, culture and, in time, economic power, tempting Russians to consider a different way of life.
The second issue of interest with regard to the current war in Ukraine is that its outcome could determine the balance of power in the whole of the Eurasian landmass for at least another generation.
Some Western analysts warn that even a semi-defeat in Ukraine could drive Russia into the arms of Communist China.
I doubt that such a thing would happen. In the Russian historic-cultural mindset China remains the number one threat. The fact that Russian economy is in no position to seek more or less balanced relations with China must also be considered.
As things stand now a Russo-Chinese relationship could only assume a neo-colonial identity with Russia as an exporter of raw material, including oil and gas and minerals and importer of capital, manufactured goods and even settlers. Right now an estimated 3.3 million Chinese settlers are developing a new farming and light industrial projects mostly in Siberia and the Sino-Russian border lands.
At the same time, Russia is too small in terms of economic power for China to risk relations with the United States, the European Union, Australia and Japan in order to save Putin from the consequences of his miscalculations.
Even then, left as a lone wolf, Russia could still play the role of troublemaker not only in Europe but also in the Middle East and, through mercenaries, in Black Africa.
Two examples of the latter possibility has already taken shape in the Central African Republic and Mali where Putin has succeeded in having the French and other European military evicted while his Wagner mercenaries take over.
Although beginning to reduce its footprint in Syria, Russia is likely to remain a significant player in that ungoverned territory through local surrogates and mercenaries recruited and controlled by the Islamic Republic in Tehran. Russia also has a $4 billion contract to sell arms to Iraq and train the Iraqis in using them.
Sitting on top of the world’s fourth largest oil and gas reserves Russia could also use a mixture of threats and bribes to influence other oil exporting nations. We are currently witnessing one example of this in Russia snatching away Iran’s share of the oil market in China by offering a discount of $1.5 per barrel to Beijing against the $1 that Tehran offers.
Despite formal sanctions, the negative role that Russia can play in the so-called “grey” oil and gas market cannot be underestimated.
Cast as “perturbateur”, as French President Emmanuel Macron suggests, Russia could further encourage the current trend in Western democracies towards strengthening the military, increasing defense budgets and shelving urgently needed reforms in both the European Union and NATO.
If even Finland and Sweden rush to join NATO, how can anyone call for the reform of an organization that Donald Trump called “irrelevant” and Macron described as “brain dead”? And would it be long before other traditional “neutrals”, such as Austria and Ireland, also apply for NATO membership?
Putin is certainly unable to trigger a larger hot war while he knows that he has no chance of winning a new version of the Cold War. But, pushed into corner, he may opt for “lukewarm” war by fomenting tensions in Europe, raising fires in Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
US President Joe Biden and Congress Chairwoman Nancy Pelosi say the Ukraine war will continue “until victory is achieved”, but neither of them has said what might constitute victory? Other US and some British officials have said the aim is to so weaken Russia that it won’t be able to launch another warn like the one Putin wages against Ukraine. But even if that happens, Russia’s capacity for low intensity “lukewarm” war will not disappear.
All that brings us back to the real question: Who is the foe, Putin or Russia?
The answer to that question could determine the strategy needed to achieve real and lasting victory which could only mean ending all possibility of Russia becoming a lone wolf or “perturbateur”.
Which brings us to what the Florentine clerk advised 500 years ago: “Never wound a deadly foe and let him live. Either kill him or turn him into a friend.”

Biden’s Approval Slump Hits a Dreary New Milestone
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/May 28/2022
The bad news for President Joe Biden is that his popularity has fallen, this past week, into dead last place. Of the 13 presidents during the polling era, none has been in worse shape at this point in his first term, almost 500 days into a presidency, than Biden’s 40.5% approval rating. That’s according to FiveThirty Eight’s estimate of his average standing in all the public opinion polls. It’s not quite Biden’s own low point — he briefly dipped a bit lower in late February — but it’s close.
Is there any good news for the president? Sort of. His 40.5% is not a historic low for first-term presidents. Donald Trump, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman all had lower lows. Clinton, Reagan and Truman hit bottom before being re-elected, with the latter two dipping well below 40% closer to their elections than Biden is to his. Indeed, there’s no relationship between approval ratings at the 500-day mark and re-election.
The news is worse for Democrats with respect to this November’s midterm elections, however. It’s not clear when voters make up their minds before heading to the polls for general elections, but political scientists do know that presidential approval ratings are usually strong factors affecting midterm results.
Democrats hope, at this point, that the issue context of the election will be focused on policy areas that tend to help them. And that is possible. But it seems unlikely that even if that happens, it will enough to overcome the president’s unpopularity.
It’s impossible to be certain about the reasons for Biden’s miserable ratings, but I believe that the big factors have been the pandemic and the economy, with the latter pretty much about inflation. If that’s true, then moderating prices and waning Covid-19 surges would be the factors most likely to turn things around.
That is, of course, easier said than done. Especially since what seems to matter are results, not policies, even concerning circumstances over which presidents have little short-term control. The other potential bit of good news for Biden is that what usually matters is the direction of change, not the level. So if gasoline prices trend down over the next several months from the current national average of $4.60 a gallon to $4 or so, Biden may well be better off than if prices had been at $4 the whole time, and may even be better off than if prices at the pump were slowly rising to, say, $3.75 a gallon. The same should be true of inflation overall.
But the flip side is that the same goes for economic growth and jobs. If the labor market cools but remains at a historically healthy level, voters may be more likely to punish Biden for a recent falloff than they would be to reward him for the still-low rates of unemployment.
Remember that approval ratings tend to drive pundits’ (and often politicians’) views of the president and everything he does. When a president is unpopular, then pundits ascribe that trouble to practically everything the president is doing. That’s a fallacy. If it’s true that inflation and the pandemic account for the bulk of Biden’s unpopularity, then other things he’s doing may actually be helping him, not hurting him. But much of what presidents do, even what they do publicly, just doesn’t change the way people think about his success or failure.

Queen Elizabeth’s platinum jubilee could be a turning point
Andrew Hammond/Arab News/May 28/2022
Queen Elizabeth celebrates 70 years on the British throne in the coming week, with her platinum jubilee shining a spotlight on the uncertain future of not only the monarchy, but also the UK and the Commonwealth.
The queen is now 96 and, sadly, her health has visibly declined in the past year since the death of her husband, Prince Philip, the Duke of Edinburgh. In this context, celebrations this week will remind audiences both in the UK and abroad of the unifying role she has played in recent decades. The queen is widely admired with her popularity fueled by visits to more than 130 countries during her long reign.
Part of the reason this is so is that she represents a figure of significant continuity during a seven-decade period when the world has been transformed. In 1952, when Elizabeth succeeded her father, King George VI, and assumed the throne, Winston Churchill was UK prime minister, Joseph Stalin was leader of the Soviet Union, Harry Truman was US president, and Mao Zedong was the Chinese Communist leader. Then the Korean War was still underway, the People’s Republic of China was only two years old, and the UK was just about to join the US and Soviet Union as a nuclear power.
The stability she has provided has been important for many institutions, including the monarchy and Commonwealth, but also the UK itself — for the continued union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland could suffer from a potentially less popular UK head of state in the future.
The queen is widely admired with her popularity fueled by visits to more than 130 countries during her long reign.
Starting with the Commonwealth, whose 54 nations account for around one-third of today’s global population, question marks hang over the body’s continued relevance. To be sure, the queen attaches high importance to the organization’s future, but uncertainty will only grow in times to come.
Early “straws in the wind” are the fact that current Commonwealth nation Barbados last year became the latest state to remove the queen as its head of state. Similar sentiments are stirring in some other nations, too, including Australia, whose new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is a long-standing republican who favors replacing his nation’s current constitutional monarchy.
The winds of change are also blowing in the UK. While the queen remains a stabilizing force for many, the nation appears to be increasingly divided on geographic lines, especially given growing pressure post-Brexit for independence in Scotland. There are also signs of political change in Northern Ireland, with the nationalist Sinn Fein, which favors unification of the island of Ireland, becoming the largest single party in May’s elections.
Beyond the debates about the Commonwealth and UK, there is also significant uncertainty over the future of the monarchy itself. Amid the high esteem in which the queen and some other royals are currently held, what is sometimes forgotten is that she has enjoyed bouts of significantly lower popularity.
The 1990s were particularly troubled, with 1992 becoming her self-described “annus horribilis” when the marriages of three of her children, including her heir Charles, the prince of Wales, disintegrated, and Windsor Castle was almost destroyed by fire. Her response to the 1997 death of Charles’ first wife, Diana, was widely criticized at the time by the UK public.
Nonetheless, the queen and her immediate family appear to have largely recovered from this period, and the media focus on the platinum jubilee is highlighting the continuing fascination much of the population has with the monarchy. This is a key driver of the fact that less than a quarter of British people today wants a republic, and many believe that it is better to have a nondivisive, nonpolitical head of state.
That said, the personal popularity of Charles is neither as high as his mother’s nor that of his own son, William. Moreover, at 73, he is already at an age when many people are retired, and is the longest-waiting and oldest heir to the throne in UK history.
Indeed, some polls show that a significant body of the UK public would prefer the monarchy to skip a generation from Elizabeth to William. This leaves open the significant possibility that the royal family could become less popular under Charles’ rule.
In this uncertain landscape, the skill Charles eventually shows as Elizabeth’s successor could have implications not only for the monarchy, but also for the wider union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as the Commonwealth.
He will do well to learn the trick his mother has shown of being a reformer, while widely being seen as a force for stability, as the royal family continues to evolve to meet the changing contours of the 21st century.
• Andrew Hammond is an Associate at LSE IDEAS at the London School of Economics.

Arab Maghreb Union needs a whole new foundation
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/May 28/2022
This year marks the 33rd anniversary of the establishment of the Arab Maghreb Union. At one time, the union was an ambitious undertaking, curiously timed and influenced by the changing tides of peak globalization giving way to rapid regionalization, amid a rising tide of knee-jerk protectionism. The plan was simple. Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania were going to form an economic and political union, integrating a geographically contiguous and culturally cohesive part of the world into a formidable pan-Arab bloc for interdependence, free trade and mutual cooperation.
In hindsight, however, such a project was perhaps too far ahead of its time, given the glaring contraindicatory realities on the ground, not excluding the permanent lack of political will to realize such a vision, resulting in the union’s disappointing state today.
Nonetheless, the rationale for this strange union remains solid even to this day, despite its dormant status. The Maghreb is strategically located between the Americas across the Atlantic, with Europe to the north, the Sahel and sub-Saharan Africa to the south, the Middle East and wider Eurasian continent to the east — in addition to a contiguous coastline straddling the Mediterranean’s busy maritime routes.
A fully integrated union could have, and can still, become a major global hub rivaling the growth of a now mostly fully consolidated Gulf Cooperation Council founded earlier in 1981.
In the late 1980s, at the time of the union’s founding, roughly four decades of record growth in global gross domestic product had begun tapering as the West’s advanced economies moved to undercut an emergent China, as well as stall the rise of Japan and the four Asian Tigers, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea. Singular economies could no longer attain or maintain high levels of global competitiveness unless they formed or joined regional blocs to further develop their competitive advantages, in turn boosting waning growth rates and reducing the numbers of jobless.
Over the years, increased regionalization — not protectionism or unilateralism — that allowed integrated economies to specialize has proven key to achieving sustainable development principles and long-term resilient growth, particularly across the developing world. Given the present high levels of global interdependence and sophistication, the union’s overall strategic location, particularly its proximity to a now $17 trillion European common market, would have fueled periods of unprecedented growth, potentially lifting millions out of poverty and transforming Maghrebi rentier economies.
After all, foreign trade practices and policies have historically influenced domestic resource allocation, economic growth and development that are essential to maintaining competitiveness and external equilibrium. Additionally, with greater integration and cooperation, rentier states would theoretically be able to undergo less costly or painful transitions as they move to diversify their economies away from a massive dependence on, for example, the extraction and export of hydrocarbons. A series of external economic shocks since the 1980s has consistently demonstrated why vulnerable rentier states ought to prioritize transitions and embrace interdependence to boost resilience.
A fully integrated Arab Maghreb Union could have, and can still, become a major global hub.
Unfortunately, the Maghreb remains among the most fragmented regions in the world today, despite its more than 100 million-strong population and a combined economic output of $325 billion. In comparison, other regional organizations and associations on the African continent, for instance, have expanded in scope and sophistication in recent years to the point of attracting North Africa to join the ranks of, say, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, and the Economic Community of Western African States.
It is a stinging indictment of years of stagnation, intransigence, critical failures in and outright hostility toward Maghrebi cooperation that is now bleeding the region’s untapped potential to the tune of roughly $7 billion a year. In other words, had the Arab Maghreb Union succeeded in establishing a formal trading bloc by eliminating barriers, adhering to a joint trade policy and creating a common market, the region could have realized a nearly $225 billion growth in GDP over the three decades since its founding.
However, the painful reality today is that intra-regional trade remains at a dismal half a percent of the region’s total imports and exports, despite obvious, well-documented upsides to relinquishing harmful protectionist and isolationist policies that continue to shrink opportunities for growth. Worse yet, the profound implications of a confluence of global challenges such as a pandemic-induced economic downturn and supply chain disruptions, plus climate change and the looming post-oil world, have yet to raise serious questions about renewed prospects to re-examine Maghrebi integration.
Currently, the region trails all six major trading blocs on the African continent. The extremely low levels of intra-regional trade are mostly due to long-standing rivalries and unresolved tensions between the Maghreb’s two biggest economies, Algeria and Morocco, as well as logistical constraints and trade protections, that make it difficult for companies to seamlessly operate within the region.
Maghrebi countries already possess the required economic structures and resources to boost trade, cooperation and integration within the region. They also do not lack the capacity to reform current investment and trade policies in order to liberalize the movement of goods, capital, people and services.
Deeper and more comprehensive integration would make a renewed Maghreb Union a more attractive and stable partner for trade and other forms of cooperation. It would also enable Maghrebi countries to enter into mutually beneficial tripartite agreements with other regional blocs spanning the globe, opening the door to enhanced cooperation in other arenas, such as counterterrorism, counterinsurgency and irregular migration.
The key to accelerating intra-Maghreb cooperation, however, should not be limited to patchwork interventions designed to overcome notable socioeconomic deficiencies or disparities. Sustainable integration will require a consistent, coherent and convergent set of economic policies and systems that cater to the Maghreb’s idiosyncrasies, as well as long-term coordination on trade volumes and investment allocations in shared projects.
This is not unique to the Maghreb alone — boosting intra-Arab trade is only possible via similar prioritizations in production growth, distribution and division of labor as well. Should any attempts at rekindling cooperation emerge, Maghrebi leaders must dispense with the propensity to maintain the status quo in favor of launching a much more radical effort that can overcome high levels of protectionism, wide policy disparities and the lack of coordination, especially at the legislative level.
In other words, the Arab Maghreb Union may need a whole new foundation that is more sensitive to the need for a comprehensive framework for cooperation suited to addressing today’s and the future’s urgencies instead of becoming just another avenue for airing grievances.
More importantly, however, time is quickly running out and the window of opportunity is considerably narrower than it was 33 years ago.
• Hafed Al-Ghwell is a non-resident senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. He is also senior adviser at the international economic consultancy Maxwell Stamp and at the geopolitical risk advisory firm Oxford Analytica, a member of the Strategic Advisory Solutions International Group in Washington DC and a former adviser to the board of the World Bank Group. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell

Is the Syrian front about to witness new disruption?
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 28, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened a new incursion into the northeast of Syria. He said last Thursday that a decision would be taken on the matter. Turkey today can benefit from the position it acquired due to the Ukraine war to impose its conditions on the different players. On the other hand, Daraa in the southwest borders with Jordan and Israel seems increasingly unstable with the smuggling of arms and drugs.
The incursion has been a goal for Turkey for a while. Last year it had plans for an incursion, however, those hopes were strongly pushed back by the US. Now that Turkey is playing a key role in mediation with Russia and in preventing Russia’s navy from crossing the Bosporus and Dardanelles Strait, the US does not have the luxury to show Turkey a strong stand. Hence, Erdogan can put forward demands that he could not before.
To start with, Erdogan is facing a tough election battle next year. There are two main issues in Turkey regarding Syria: The refugees and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party — the PKK — and its Syrian wing, the People’s Protection Units — the YPG. Erdogan opponents’ main criticism has been the issue of the Syrian refugees. Discontent with the refugees is growing by the day. The Turkish opposition is framing the presence of Syrian refugees as Erdogan’s fault. Turkey, on the other hand, does not see day and night between the YPG and the PKK, and this perception extends beyond Erdogan; there is general consensus around it. The YPG empowerment is perceived as a threat for Turkey. Ankara sees that the US is supporting a terrorist organization that has been targeting the Turkish mainland for three decades. Hence the Turkish project of creating the buffer zone through relocating the Syrian refugees who come from all over Syria in the northeast.
However, the project is more of a negotiating card and a publicity stunt than a plausible plan in the pipeline. Internally, this project will diffuse the public anger against refugees and it is a pressure point Turkey can use with the US and the West. Turkey knows that the buffer zone is not viable. To start with, even if Turkey built compounds in the northeast, refugees would not voluntarily leave Turkey and move into them. Also, sending refugees back to other people’s homes is opening a can of worms. It will generate resistance and instability on Turkey’s borders. To add to that, it is a very big task to relocate 1 million people.
Today the US needs Turkey and Russia is too weak to oppose. While everyone was expecting to wake up on Friday to news of a large-scale invasion, this did not happen. It seems Turkey is negotiating for better terms with the Americans. The leverage Turkey has accumulated during the Ukraine crisis is going to be cashed in Syria. Every time Ankara conducted an incursion in Syria, it had before that brokered a deal with the US or Russia.
In the Syrian arena, the main concern is reining in Iran and protecting the borders of Jordan and Israel.
Turkey cannot conduct a cross-border operation and threaten the current rapprochement with the US or risk being the target of a new set of sanctions. Chances are Turkey is preparing the ground for a cross-border operation in which it pushes the YPG 30 km away from the Turkish borders. Today, pushing the YPG away from the borders seems to be the prime target of Turkey. Such an operation will create disruption on the Syrian scene.
In addition to the northern front, the southwest is another unstable front.The tactical strikes to keep Iran in line are no longer enough. Israel and Jordan are now on edge. Jordan has tried to strike a deal with Bashar Assad to keep its borders stable.
When King Abdullah met with US President Joe Biden, one main element on the agenda was the rehabilitation of Assad. The logic that Jordan followed was that Assad won and it is better to patch things up with him in order to minimize the damage that could come from his regime.
However, the gesture toward Assad did not make him adopt good behavior with his neighbor. On the contrary, drug and arms smuggling has been on the rise. Jordan recently said that pro-Iran Syrian army units were trying to smuggle drugs worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the Gulf via Jordan.
Jordan and Israel are worried that the void left by Russia in the southwest will be quickly filled by Iran. There is also another concern for the Israelis which are the “smart” weapons coming from Iran to Lebanon via Syria’s borders. This makes the Hezbollah arsenal lethal to Israel, which cannot afford to have any of its critical infrastructure hit. The US refusal to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the terrorist list will probably spur Iran to increase its aggressiveness as an act of retaliation. Hence, today, in the Syrian arena the main concern is reining in Iran and protecting the borders of Jordan and Israel, and the US is not in the mood to confront Turkey.
Turkey can use this to get better terms with the US. The Biden administration’s aim was a frozen conflict in Syria. The conflict seemed too complicated to be solved. The US aim was for the Turks to stay where they are in the northwest, to continue supporting the YPG while making sure the Al-Hol camp is under control, and add to that maintaining the security of the borders of Jordan and Israel. In short, the US policy was keeping the lid on the conflict. However, this policy seems unsustainable as we are heading to a new disruption. The disruption could be another large-scale operation in the northeast or it could be an operation in the southwest. It is difficult to predict how exactly events will play out, but chances are we are heading to new events that will push the US to make some serious decisions on Syria. One thing is for sure: The status quo in Syria is about to be disrupted.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II.