English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 24/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.may24.22.htm
News Bulletin Achieves
Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
The Miracle Of Reviving Lazarus From the Grave/I am
the resurrection and the life. Those who believe in me, even though they die,
will live, and everyone who lives and believes in me will never die.
John 11/17-27: “When Jesus arrived, he found that Lazarus had already been in
the tomb for four days. Now Bethany was near Jerusalem, some two miles away, and
many of the Jews had come to Martha and Mary to console them about their
brother. When Martha heard that Jesus was coming, she went and met him, while
Mary stayed at home. Martha said to Jesus, ‘Lord, if you had been here, my
brother would not have died. But even now I know that God will give you whatever
you ask of him.’ Jesus said to her, ‘Your brother will rise again.’Martha said
to him, ‘I know that he will rise again in the resurrection on the last day.’
Jesus said to her, ‘I am the resurrection and the life. Those who believe in me,
even though they die, will live, and everyone who lives and believes in me will
never die. Do you believe this?’ She said to him, ‘Yes, Lord, I believe that you
are the Messiah, the Son of God, the one coming into the world.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May
23-24/2022
Lebanese should know the Truth and Nothing but the TRUTH ِall About The
Israeli Withdrwal From South Lebanon In Year 2000/Claude Hajjar/May 23/2022
Authorities remove 'wall of shame' around Parliament
Calls intensify before Speaker election session as many blocs refuse Berri
Rifi: We won't agree to unity govt., Raad shouldn't try to intimidate us
Qassem says 77 MPs are pro-resistance as Fadlallah warns over new govt.
Atiyeh says ready to assume deputy speaker post, voices support for Berri
Has monkeypox arrived in Lebanon?
Lebanon’s victorious MPs must resist Hezbollah’s divide-and-conquer playbook/Baria
Alamuddin/Arab News/May 23/2022
A Reading into Lebanon's Elections Results: Minority Rule, Majority
Opposition/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/May 23/2022
The Decaying Republic and the Chances of its Revival /Charles Elias Chartouni/May
23/2022
Who Poisoned the President’s Meal?Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/May 23/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on May
23-24/2022
Coptic Pope Condemns Attacks on ‘Religious Groups’/Raymond Ibrahim
/Coptic Solidarity/May 23/2022
Iran warns it will 'avenge' killing of Guards colonel
Quds Force Colonel Assassinated in Tehran
Freed UK woman says Iran forced her to sign false confession
Zelenskyy Urges 'Maximum' Sanctions on Russia in Davos Talk
2nd Senior Aide to Israeli PM Quits
Security Guard Killed in Qatar Embassy in Paris
Intra-Kurdish Rapprochement Paves Way for Resolving Political Impasse in Iraq
Qatar's ruler evokes Abou Akleh in Davos, calls out West on double standards
WHO says monkeypox transmission can be stopped outside endemic countries
Israeli Arab lawmaker rejoins coalition days after quitting
UN-Sponsored Yemeni Talks in Amman to Complete Truce Terms
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May
23-24/2022
Audio/Deal or No Deal: Confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran the
Reagan Way/FDD/May 23/2022
Assassination of IRGC officer reveals Iran’s hollow system - analysis/Seth J.
Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 23/2022
Russia’s Withdrawal From Syria Is an Opportunity for Israel/Jacob Nagel and
Jonathan Schanzer/Newsweek/May 23/2022
War in Ukraine: The World Adapts to New Realities/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/May
23/2022
Davos Meetings Are Full of Potential But Rarely Full of Solutions/Mohamed El-Erian/Bloomberg/May
23/2022
China's Latest Power Grab Threatens Entire Pacific/Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone
Institute./May 23/2022
Another Way the US Government Is Threatening National Security/Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone
Institute/May 23/2022
The effect of the Iranian turbulence on the region/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab
News/May 23/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May
23-24/2022
كلود حجار: هذه هي حقيقة وقائع انسحاب إسرائيل
من الجنوب عام ألفين
Lebanese should know the Truth and Nothing but the TRUTH ِall About The Israeli
Withdrwal From South Lebanon In Year 2000
Claude Hajjar, Founder of the Committee of Support for the Southerners in
Enforced Exile in Israel./May 23/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108857/%d9%83%d9%84%d9%88%d8%af-%d8%ad%d8%ac%d8%a7%d8%b1-%d9%87%d8%b0%d9%87-%d9%87%d9%8a-%d8%ad%d9%82%d9%8a%d9%82%d8%a9-%d9%88%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%a6%d8%b9-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b3%d8%ad%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a5%d8%b3%d8%b1/
!!Lebanese should know how Our Heroes were left
behind…And this National Resistance-Liberation Fake Day should STOP!!!
In brief, this is how it happened:
On May 23rd, Israeli Defense Forces started withdrawing from the Security Zone
in Southern Lebanon which they occupied since 1982.
On May 25th, Under Death Threats, South Lebanese National Army with thousands of
Civilians were Forced to Exile and Flee to Israel.
On May 26th, Hezbollah, the Iranian Terrorist Organization and Drug Cartel,
Invaded “almost” an Empty South but then,… the rest of Lebanon until this day.
The Southerners in Enforced Exile are entitled, like any other citizen, to file
a Defamation Complaint against the Government who FALSELY accused them of
Treason when in fact they were officially assigned in the South by the Ministry
of Defense. This accusation was fabricated on Syrian-Palestinian coalition &
then Hezbollah-Iran’s demand to legally attack them, kill them and invade the
South. The car side bombs were Hezbollah’s favorites.
When the Israeli Government announced their withdrawal, Hezbollah-Iran
threatened the Southerners with Death, on live TV and later on, Invaded their
lands in the South.
These Southerners should be largely compensated, including the late Amer
Fakhoury.
But first, they should be awarded the Presidential Medal of Honor for all the
services they Heroically fulfilled at the risk of their Lives, above and beyond
the call of duty, specially when in real they were left behind by their own
coward / traitor government, from 1976 to May 2000
For now, and as a founder of the Committee, I would advise them to return to
their homeland only when Lebanon will be totally liberated, otherwise they will
face the same destiny, Missing or Torture/Death as Amer Fakhoury, Ramez Boulos
or Abu Samira,… and many others.
Justice should and will Prevail!!
GOD Bless them, GOD BLESS LEBANON
Authorities remove 'wall of shame' around Parliament
Naharnet/May 23/2022
Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said Monday "this is Beirut's voice and the
voice of the Lebanese" as workers removed cement blocks surrounding Parliament's
building in Nejmeh Square. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had ordered earlier on
Monday the removal of the security barricades, in response to Mawlawi's demand
as newly elected reformist MPs had suggested the removal of the blocs before the
upcoming Parliament session. Mawlawi added that Beirut's Central District is
open to everyone, affirming that "Beirut will come back to life."People gathered
to watch the removal of the cement wall that stood for more than three years
between the people and the Parliament. Behind the cement blocs, there are
metallic barricades that will also be removed. "This is a victory for Oct. 17,"
an activist said as he celebrated the event. "Now the rebels are MPS in the
Parliament." The barricades had been used to prevent protestors from entering
Parliament during the revolution. After more than a dozen of Oct. 17 candidates
won in the parliamentary elections, a post circulated on social media saying
that the rebels have entered Parliament as MPs.
Calls intensify before Speaker election session as many
blocs refuse Berri
Naharnet/May 23/2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri hasn't yet called for a session for electing a
new Speaker, but new MPs will have to pick a speaker within 14 days. Calls and
consultations will intensify in the upcoming week, al-Akhbar newspaper said
Monday, in an attempt to ease the tension as many blocs announced they wouldn't
vote for Berri. The daily also said it had learned that Berri will meet with
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat to discuss the latest
developments and possible future coordinations. Berri, the only candidate for
the post, has held the Speaker position since 1992. He is expected to hold on to
the post with the backing of Hizbullah and his Amal party which, together,
account for all Shiite lawmakers. The PSP MPs will also likely vote for Berri.
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea had said Sunday that his bloc will not
nominate Berri and Free patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil had earlier
hinted that his bloc wouldn't, negating a Speaker - Deputy Speaker bargain. The
FPM will nominate MP Elias Bou Saab as a Deputy Speaker and the LF will nominate
MP Ghassan Hasbani, while the opposition forces will likely nominate former
President of the Beirut Bar Association Melhem Khalaf, the daily said, but
Hasbani said in a televised interview that he has not been nominated by the LF.
As for the reformist MPs, they will likely not vote for Berri. Newly elected MP
Ibrahim Mneimneh said "I didn't hear a reformist MP saying he will vote for
Berri." He added that he wouldn't vote for any Deputy Speaker candidate who
belongs to the traditional parties, including the LF.George Boujikian of the
Tashnag party said he will vote for Berri, although he added that the Tashnag
MPs might join the FPM bloc in Parliament. According to the newspaper's sources,
there is a possibility for the MPs who wouldn't vote for Berri to boycott the
session. Meanwhile, Berri ordered the removal of the security barricades
surrounding Parliament's building in Nejmeh Square, a step that reformist MPs
like Ibrahim Mneimneh and Elias Jrade had asked for.The barricades had been used
to prevent protestors from entering Parliament. After more than a dozen of Oct.
17 candidates won in the parliamentary elections, a post circulated on social
media saying that the rebels have entered Parliament as MPs.
Rifi: We won't agree to unity govt., Raad shouldn't try to
intimidate us
Naharnet/May 23/2022
Tripoli MP and ex-minister Ashraf Rifi stressed Monday that he “will not agree
to a national unity government.”Hizbullah top lawmaker “Mohammed Raad should
stop trying to intimidate us and we will impose the government that we want,”
Rifi said in an interview on MTV. Rifi has two other MPs in his bloc but he is
allied with the Lebanese Forces bloc. “We will not accept a national unity
government, because it will be booby-trapped and impotent, especially like the
governments that Hizbullah used to call for,” the MP added. “Vacuum would be
better than Hizbullah’s people being in charge of the government,” Rifi went on
to say. Rifi also noted that he has not nominated himself for the premier post
and is “not seeking any post.” As for the deputy speaker post, Rifi said he will
support the LF’s nomination of Ghassan Hasbani should he be nominated for the
post. “I’m with choosing new and sovereign figures for the premiership and I do
not see Najib Miqati as a change figure,” Rifi added. Asked whether he will vote
for Speaker Nabih Berri for the speaker post, Rifi said: “We are against all
political forces, and we will cast blank votes because we are a change
bloc.”Rifi also said that the parliamentary elections “were remarkable in the
Sunni community.”“Those who bet on boycott do not know the Sunnis, who voted
heavily for the camp of sovereignty and change, and we have returned to the
multiplicity of Sunni leaders,” Rifi added.
Qassem says 77 MPs are pro-resistance as Fadlallah warns
over new govt.
Naharnet/May 23/2022
Hizbullah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem has noted that of the 128 new MPs, 77
are with “resisting” Israel, as MP Hassan Fadlallah of Hizbullah stressed there
should be “partnership” in the new government. “March 14’s remnants were 47 MPs
in the previous elections and now they have become 36, which is a clear
deterioration,” Qassem said in a TV interview.“If we classify parliamentarians
based on who supports resisting Israel and who doesn’t, 77 MPs are in favor of
resisting the enemy,” Qassem added. “We have relations with the moderate MPs
from the independent lawmakers and popular groups and organizations that are not
linked to embassies,” Qassem went on to say, noting that his party “did not
launch treason accusations against anyone in the October 17 protest movement,
except for those who are directly linked to embassies.”Adding that Hizbullah
“does not want the parliamentary majority and is not working on securing this
majority,” Hizbullah number two stressed that “if someone thinks that they can
flip the table on Hizbullah in parliament, they would be mistaken.” He added
that Hizbullah supports the nomination of Nabih Berri for a new term as
parliament speaker. MP Fadlallah of Hizbullah meanwhile said the “hot heads” who
are launching “tense speeches and broad slogans” should “calm down a bit.”“When
they sit in their seats in parliament, they will find that there is a
constitution and specific laws, powers and roles, and that all their tense
speeches will not lead to the places that they are being delusional about,”
Fadlallah added. Turning to the issue of the new government, the MP said: “We
have started hearing conditions and far-fetched demands related to the
government’s formation, and this means that some have the intention to obstruct
and undermine the principle of partnership.”“They believe that they can rule the
country if they get an extra parliament seat, and such people are delusional,”
Fadlallah added. He noted that when Hizbullah calls for “national partnership,”
it does so from “a position of strength and from a position of hundreds of
thousands of votes” that went to its lists. “We in Lebanon are the country of
diversity and a country in which there can be no ruling majorities, because the
sectarian structure does not allow for any one-sided majority to rule,”
Fadlallah went on to say.
Atiyeh says ready to assume deputy speaker post, voices
support for Berri
Naharnet/May 23/2022
MP Sajih Atiyeh of Akkar, who is backed by ex-deputy PM Issam Fares, announced
Monday that he is willing to assume the deputy parliament speaker post if
nominated, as he voiced support for the re-election of Speaker Nabih Berri to
his post. “I know that he resembles us. He is the father of the deprived and we
hail from a deprived region. Therefore this visit was to discuss the region’s
affairs in particular,” Atiyeh said after meeting Berri in Ain el-Tineh, adding
that he prides himself in a “patriotic figure” like Berri. “This crisis requires
people who have standing, a long experience and ability to resolve problems, and
I believe that the coming period requires us and all MPs to stand by him,”
Atiyeh added. Asked whether he is nominated for the deputy speaker post, Atiyeh
said: “I have not nominated myself, but if the situation requires me to be in
this post, I’m ready with all my capabilities… I will not hesitate to assume any
post in order to help my people and country.”Asked whether his bloc will vote
for Berri for the speaker post, Atiyeh said: “In principle, yes.”
Has monkeypox arrived in Lebanon?
Naharnet /May 23/2022
A Lebanese doctor claimed Monday that there are at least two cases of monkeypox
in Lebanon, as the Health Ministry confirmed that a sample from a suspected
monkeypox patient has been sent to France for testing. The doctor, Mohammed
Fahmi Kharroub, a specialist in family medicine and chronic illnesses, told al-Jadeed
TV in a live interview that he has diagnosed a patient in Lebanon with monkeypox
and that he has been told about “another case in south Lebanon.”
Noting that the patient whom he diagnosed “has symptoms,” Kharroub said the
south Lebanon person suspected of having the virus had arrived in Lebanon from
Africa.
“The problem lies in (caretaker) Health Minister Firass Abiad and his medical
team, who lack the method of dealing with crises,” Kharroub charged.
“If only he answers us,” the doctor lamented.
Noting that monkeypox’s PCR tests are not available in Lebanon, Kharroub added
that “it has no vaccine nor treatment and precaution is very necessary.”
The head of the Department of Preventive Medicine at the Health Ministry
meanwhile confirmed to MTV that “a sample from a suspected monkeypox patient has
been sent to France.”
“We are awaiting the result, which will come out in five days,” she added.
“The Health Ministry team is capable of confronting monkeypox should it arrive
in Lebanon,” the head of the department reassured, revealing that “a machine for
monkeypox testing will arrive in Lebanon in two weeks.”The Department later
announced in an official statement that "there are no confirmed or suspected
cases of this disease in Lebanon," adding that "any case will be officially
announced by the Health Ministry upon confirmation."
To date, the World Health Organization has recorded more than 90 cases of
monkeypox in a dozen countries including Britain, Spain, Israel, France,
Switzerland, the U.S. and Australia.
Monkeypox typically causes fever, chills, rash, and lesions on the face or
genitals. It can be spread through close contact with an infected person or
their clothing or bedsheets, but sexual transmission has not yet been
documented. Most people recover from the disease within several weeks without
requiring hospitalization. Vaccines against smallpox, a related disease, are
also effective in preventing monkeypox and some antiviral drugs are being
developed.
In recent years, the disease has been fatal in up to 6% of infections, but no
deaths have been reported among the current cases. WHO said confirmed cases have
so far been the less severe West African group of monkeypox viruses and appeared
to be linked to a virus that was first detected in exported cases from Nigeria
to Britain, Israel and Singapore in 2018-2019.
The U.N. agency said the outbreak is “a highly unusual event” and said the fact
that cases are being seen in so many different countries suggests the disease
may have been silently spreading for some time. The agency’s Europe director
warned that as summer begins across the continent, mass gatherings, festivals
and parties could accelerate the spread of monkeypox.
A leading adviser to the World Health Organization described the unprecedented
outbreak of monkeypox in developed countries as “a random event” that might be
explained by risky sexual behavior at two recent mass events in Europe.
In an interview with The Associated Press, Dr. David Heymann, who formerly
headed WHO’s emergencies department, said the leading theory to explain the
spread of the disease was sexual transmission among gay and bisexual men at two
raves held in Spain and Belgium. Monkeypox has not previously triggered
widespread outbreaks beyond Africa, where it is endemic in animals.
“We know monkeypox can spread when there is close contact with the lesions of
someone who is infected, and it looks like sexual contact has now amplified that
transmission,” said Heymann.
That marks a significant departure from the disease’s typical pattern of spread
in central and western Africa, where people are mainly infected by animals like
wild rodents and primates and outbreaks have not spilled across borders.
Madrid’s senior health official said on Monday that the Spanish capital has
recorded 30 confirmed cases so far. Enrique Ruiz Escudero said authorities are
investigating possible links between a recent Gay Pride event in the Canary
Islands, which drew some 80,000 people, and cases at a Madrid sauna. Heymann
chaired an urgent meeting of WHO’s advisory group on infectious disease threats
on Friday to assess the ongoing epidemic and said there was no evidence to
suggest that monkeypox might have mutated into a more infectious form.
The U.N. agency said the outbreak is “a highly unusual event” and said the fact
that cases are being seen in so many different countries suggests the disease
may have been silently spreading for some time. The agency’s Europe director
warned that as summer begins across the continent, mass gatherings, festivals
and parties could accelerate the spread of monkeypox.
Other scientists have pointed out that it will be difficult to disentangle
whether it is sex itself or the close contact related to sex that has driven the
recent spread of monkeypox across Europe.
“By nature, sexual activity involves intimate contact, which one would expect to
increase the likelihood of transmission, whatever a person’s sexual orientation
and irrespective of the mode of transmission," said Mike Skinner, a virologist
at Imperial College London.
On Sunday, the chief medical adviser of Britain’s Health Security Agency, Dr.
Susan Hopkins, said she expected more monkeypox cases to be identified in the
country “on a daily basis.”
U.K. officials have said “a notable proportion” of the cases in Britain and
Europe have been in young men with no history of travel to Africa and who are
gay, bisexual or have sex with men. Authorities in Portugal and Spain also said
their cases were in men who mostly had sex with other men and whose infections
were picked up when they sought help for lesions at sexual health clinics.
Heymann, who is also a professor of infectious diseases at the London School of
Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the monkeypox outbreak was likely a random
event that might be traceable to a single infection.
“It’s very possible there was somebody who got infected, developed lesions on
the genitals, hands or somewhere else, and then spread it to others when there
was sexual or close, physical contact,” Heymann hypothesized. “And then there
were these international events that seeded the outbreak around the world, into
the U.S. and other European countries.”
He emphasized that the disease was unlikely to trigger widespread transmission.
“This is not COVID,” he said. “We need to slow it down, but it does not spread
in the air and we have vaccines to protect against it.” Heymann said studies
should be conducted rapidly to determine if monkeypox could be spread by people
without symptoms and that populations at risk of the disease should take
precautions to protect themselves.
Lebanon’s victorious MPs must resist Hezbollah’s
divide-and-conquer playbook
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/May 23/2022
Last week’s Lebanese elections represented an elusive promise of change, but for
change to prevail we have immense work ahead of us.
In this historic shake-up of traditional political fiefdoms, several figures who
were regarded as irreplaceable pillars of the old system — such as Hezbollah and
Syria allies Talal Arslan, Elie Ferzli and Faisal Karami — lost their seats.
Despite massive efforts by the old guard to co-opt and steal the vote, over 50
percent of the coming parliament is likely to be composed of new faces.
A new crop of 17 “change” candidates, many of whom were personally active in the
2019 uprising, have transformed the political fabric beyond all recognition.
They look and talk like ordinary Lebanese, unlike the kleptocratic class we are
accustomed to seeing in government. The new female entrants represent a
refreshing change from the wives and sisters of prominent politicians — normally
the only women who get a look-in.
The parliamentary representation of Hezbollah and its allies fell from 73 seats
to 60, and would have fallen even farther without flagrant intimidation and vote
buying. Many traditional Hezbollah supporters abstained from voting altogether.
Hezbollah was further discomfited by a sharp drop in funding and votes from the
immense Lebanese Shiite diaspora, many of whom took the momentous step of
backing reformist candidates. Hezbollah’s efforts to exploit the post-Hariri
vacuum to pick off Sunni candidates failed miserably.
The group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah grudgingly acknowledged that he no longer
had an absolute majority, while nevertheless declaring a “huge victory.” One of
the biggest losers, Gebran Bassil of the Free Patriotic Movement, gave a
demagogic, reality-denying speech reminiscent of Nasrallah himself in which he
hotly denied that the FPM were no longer the largest faction, and insisted that
they would win even more seats after recounts and appeals.
Hezbollah is banking on being the best-organized party to dictate the progress
of post-election negotiations. Newly elected MPs with negligible frontline
political experience will have the gates of hell thunderously opened upon them;
a blizzard of bribes and threats will seek to compel them to either change
sides, or passively acquiesce in gambits to paralyze the formation of a
government until other factions cave in and bestow upon Hezbollah its
traditional “blocking third.”
In a striking parallel, Tehran’s widely detested paramilitary proxies in Iraq
won just 17 seats, about 5 percent of the parliament, in elections last October.
This spectacular collapse hasn’t prevented them from blocking any semblance of
political progress for months on end, and demanding key seats in government. The
game that Hezbollah will play in Lebanon will be no less violent, dirty or
maximalist.
MPs must unite and stand their ground against this divide-and-rule blitzkrieg.
In this they require support from the enlightened political establishment,
citizens and the international community. Differences, egos and ideologies must
be put aside for the sake of Lebanon’s very existence.
These elections represented a breakthrough for voter awareness, with many
diverging from sectarian preferences. ... But these modest beginnings are not
yet cause for jubilation: The default likelihood is that, by using every
unscrupulous trick in its playbook, Hezbollah will ultimately succeed in
stealing the outcome of the elections.
Lebanon cannot afford months of brinkmanship. The currency continues to plunge
in value, the Deir Ammar power station in Tripoli has ceased operations
entirely, flour reserves are rapidly dwindling, and taxi drivers have been
protesting against new increases in fuel prices.
As Nasrallah himself acknowledged, it will be necessary to “work together” to
supply food, medicines and fuel to a populace mired in extreme poverty. Given
such challenges, Nasrallah called for “postponing” the issue of Hezbollah’s
weapons for a further two years — an interesting change of tone from the group’s
usual threats to engulf the region in flames before relinquishing its arms.
Nasrallah’s references to Lebanon’s Arab identity reflect discomfort at how his
servitude to Tehran has weakened Hezbollah in the eyes of the electorate.
The all-important IMF bailout can finally make progress under a leadership that
isn’t a transparent Hezbollah plaything. There are issues of maritime and land
borders, and the question of the presidency, for which citizens would happily
embrace almost any candidate whose name isn’t Gebran Bassil. Finally, there is
the equally problematic issue of selecting a parliamentary speaker. Will the
“resistance” factions insist on Nabih Berri again at all costs, or will there be
flexibility over a younger and less divisive Shiite candidate?
Meanwhile, following comments by former US State Department official David
Schenker about Trump-era financial sanctions against Hezbollah, the group
proclaimed that they had uncovered a massive Western plot to wreck the Lebanese
economy and sabotage the elections. Ludicrously, Hezbollah MP Mohammed Raad
warned opponents that they would not be allowed to become traitorous “shields”
for Israel, or “fuel” for a civil war.
Instead of issuing threats and promoting conspiracy theories, Hezbollah should
internalize this electoral rebuke, and realize that in most people’s minds Iran
and Israel are equally existential enemies of Lebanon’s national interests.
Anybody serving the agenda of either will inevitably — and rightfully — be
regarded as a traitor.
These elections represented a breakthrough for voter awareness, with many
diverging from sectarian preferences. Particularly among the diaspora there were
huge efforts to assist voters in making intelligent choices of the best
candidates.
But these modest beginnings are not yet cause for jubilation: The default
likelihood is that, by using every unscrupulous trick in its playbook, Hezbollah
will ultimately succeed in stealing the outcome of the elections. This
formidable foe is armed to the teeth and won’t relinquish its weapons without a
fight.
Nevertheless, the elections give us hope that a rejuvenated Lebanon is possible;
that the political system can be restored; that this regional hub for culture,
trade and tourism can return to flourishing prosperity; that life can once again
be worth living; and that the Lebanese people can obtain what they deserve — a
sovereign parliament that truly represents them.
The Lebanese state has been held hostage for too long. These elections offer the
hope of liberation and the key with which the chains can be unlocked — provided
we have the courage and determination to follow through by flinging open the
prison doors and allowing Lebanon to regain its rightful place in the Arab
world.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
A Reading into Lebanon's Elections Results: Minority
Rule, Majority Opposition
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al Awsat/May 23/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108859/%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%85-%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b3%d9%89-%d9%82%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%a1%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%aa%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%aa-%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%82%d9%84/
I have an experienced Lebanese politician’s comment about the elections in mind.
The ‘excess’ of comments and analyses since the date of the elections was
announced has overcome Hezbollah’s ‘excess’ of force. In truth, much has been
written about these elections, in terms of predictions and comments, was
far-fetched. It obscured many facts and spread either a sense of relief or
hopelessness and in both cases, wishful thinking prevailed. Indeed, many were
left scratching their heads even after the elections ended, as all parties,
whether they won or lost, claimed victory.
The results, though, speak for themselves, and they are unequivocal. The axis of
resistance lost several seats in what is widely seen to be the result of the
following developments. The fall of the last remnants of Syrian tutelage
reflects the collapse of the Syrian regime’s ability to play a regional role,
becoming a mere Iran subordinate whose loyalists in Lebanon are no longer useful
to Hezbollah. The latter saw support for it and its ally, the Amal Movement,
drop slightly among its supporters, who came out in lower numbers than they had
in 2018 despite its massive campaign. As for the Sunni and Christian
communities, they showed a kind of aversion to traditional parties and a
keenness for cross-sectarian politics that mirrors the October 17 revolution.
Finally, we have to mention the confusion among Sunni amid the lack of a strong
bloc united by a single lead to represent its interests like those of other
sects.
In the opposite corner, the opposition, both traditional and reformist, made
real progress. The Lebanese Forces did particularly well in their
intra-Christian battle with the Free Patriotic Movement. With that, no side
managed to win a majority that would allow it to make the decisions, especially
under the so-called consociational democracy, which does not operate based on
“majority rule and the minority opposition.”However, if we assume, for the sake
of argument, that Lebanon’s system is parliamentary, the opposition composed of
“sovereigns” and “reformists” can only form a majority by uniting and
establishing a single front capable of bringing about real change and protecting
this change. Many obstacles stand in the way, the most prominent of which are
divergences on several issues and a lack of vision. They hinder the translation
of the breakthroughs made during the elections into political outcomes and these
victories nullify the coups carried out by Hezbollah and its tools- in an effort
to change Lebanon’s identity, ways of living, and its role in the region-.
This cultural, civilizational, and political confrontation will not be attained
without a clear vision regarding the country’s identity, national security,
foreign policy, fiscal and monetary policies, reform process, steps to curb
corruption, and decentralization. The most important issue remains the country’s
political system, which is difficult to categorize. Indeed, one would not be
exaggerating if one said that the state in Lebanon, in the legal and
constitutional sense of the word, has not been built yet.
The emergence of a new majority will not be consequential unless it
presents convincing and realistic alternatives that appeal to the various
Lebanese sectarian communities, especially the Shiite community. The axis of
resistance, headed by Hezbollah, has a vision for Lebanon. It knows what it
wants politically, security-wise, economically, and even culturally. Its vision
has been shown to be dangerous, as it left the country in a state of chaos,
paralysis, economic and financial collapse, and regional and international
isolation it finds itself today.
Therefore, this new majority needs to give us many answers. It must first
clearly define the political system it wants, and this is a thorny issue.
Prominent political scientists have offered divergent definitions, as Michael
Hudson described it as an oligarchic democracy and Jean Salmon sees it as chaos.
On the second, it regards the so-called defense strategy. I say so-called
because merely putting it forward is an acknowledgment that the state does not
have a monopoly on violence. Does the new majority want to continue to face off
with Israel and perpetuate the militarization of the country’s social and
economic systems? If it does, how does it plan to solve the problem of an armed
non-state actor? Will it incorporate Hezbollah forces into the army, along what
framework? If it does not, the question becomes: how does the opposition intend
to confront not only the party’s arms but also the local and regional power that
it now wields?
Moreover, four threats endanger the results that have been achieved and
described as decisive: Politically, enthusiasm for the Taif Agreement among the
majority of Christian blocs and Hezbollah has subsided. Economically, it seems
that financial and social implosion is at the doorstep as national institutions
falter, especially since it seems that forming a new government and electing a
president by October is not at all a foregone conclusion.
Security-wise, there are fears that Hezbollah will flex its muscles in
response to attempts to isolate it, and the specter of tensions on the border
with Israel- mirroring the July 2006 war that was instigated in response- to the
victory of the March 14 forces in the 2005 elections looms. Its potential
repercussions are difficult to predict. The intention,
here, is not to shed doubt on the merits of members of the new majority but to
emphasize their duty to build on past experiences to make the most of the
results of these elections and build on them. Otherwise, we would be back at
ground zero and the country would enter a new phase. As well as humility,
sacrifice, realism, and keeping a lookout for the rabbits Hezbollah has in its
hat. After the 2009 elections, it called for popular legitimacy rather than the
constitutional legitimacy that emerged from the election. Now, we see its
Secretary-General Hassan Nassrallah telling us that what concerns them is
whether it opposes their policies, and they will accept or reject it on that
basis!
As all of this goes on, international and regional players have always been
there. Indeed, they are still major players. We hope that they have heard what
the majority of Lebanese of all sects had to say. Nonetheless, hearing and
“acquiescing and complying” is not the same thing.
The Decaying Republic and the Chances of its Revival
Charles Elias Chartouni/May
23/2022
Now that parliamentary elections are over, the question is whether the
constitutional course is likely to arrive to its destination with the election
of a parliament speaker, the formation of a new cabinet and a presidential
election. These questions raise another dilemma, to whichever extent political
institutions in this country frame political events and define their
coordinates? The answer is obviously no, since the extraneous relationships
between the two have created a chasm that political events, both internally and
externally, have widened and made almost impossible the reconciliation between
realpolitik and their purported constitutional embedding. The weakening of the
very notion of Statehood is undermining the chances of rebuilding institutions
and resuscitating their underlying normative and political consensuses. State
institutions are not free-floating entities surfing the contradictions of a
flawed polity, and the unraveling of its national narrative and civil concord.
How can someone account for the ongoing institutional ruptures, if it were not
the breakdown of the basic consensuses between the Lebanese, at large, and
Hezbollah and its retainers. The Hezbollah’s coalition self defeating electoral
projections rather than inspiring a conciliatory political demeanor, brought it
back to square zero, whereby political obstructionism, endemic instability, and
compounded financial and socio-economic cataclysms have created the congenial
environment for systemic entropies, and disruptive political and social
dynamics. The Shiite coalition doesn’t seem to relent on its subversive course,
abide by the National Pact ethical stipulations, in terms of principled
moderation, voluntary renunciations on disruptive politics, and amicable
arrangement of conflicts. The constitutional provisos are literally overturned
for the sake of open-ended and unregulated conflicts, and their deleterious
incidence on a tattered political entity and its systemic dislocations. The
outcome of elections was presumably a denouement, and the onset of a new era of
reconstruction that is urgently requested, if we were to overcome the breaking
point of deferred crises and their disarraying effects on fraying political and
social orders.
The likelihood of a long hauled political stalemate caused by succession
wrangling among Shiite factions and their retinues all across the board, and the
challenge of their political contenders, seem to prevail with the looming crises
of the parliament presidency, cabinet formation and presidential election, while
the grand unraveling pursues its unhindered course. It doesn’t seem that the
reigning oligarchs are worried about the destructive consequences of a
deliberately created political stalemate, or ready to engage international
mediations which aim at putting an end to the unending suffering of the Lebanese
people, coping with two and a half years of intentional sabotaging of internal
reforms, negotiations with the IMF, international institutions and multilateral
aid proposals. The actual course is arguably the prevalent one over the next few
months, let alone years, unless the opposition forces decide to upend this
vicious dynamic, engage the international community on the very basis of their
electoral mandates, and urge the internationalization of the Lebanese crisis
under the UN Chapter 7, as the unique suitable framework to deal with the
protracted political, economic and social crises, and put an end to their
hazardous fallouts on a “depleted society”.
Who Poisoned the President’s Meal?
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/May 23/2022
One of my Lebanese friends and a reader of Asharq Al-Awsat has blamed me. He
said: “You go to Berlin to write about the situation of Ukrainian and Syrian
refugees. Do you think our conditions are better than theirs? Haven’t you been
told that cancer medicines are lacking? That the number of those searching the
bins to fill their empty stomach is increasing daily… That the Lebanese jumped
into the death boats and lost their bodies off their homeland… That homes are
almost void of young people… And that humiliation is every day’s meal, as the
loaf of bread has become beyond reach?”
He added: “The zaatar man’oucheh is sold for LBP20,000, and the falafel sandwich
for LBP40,000. A kilo of tomatoes costs LBP40,000. The minimum wage is
equivalent to the price of four gasoline tanks and four kilograms of meat.”
He continued: “They plundered the citizens’ deposits. They plunged the country
into darkness. They destroyed the university, the bank and the hospital.
Ukrainians have a Western embrace that will rebuild their country. They have
Zelensky, who raises his voice and scolds the conscience of the world. We have
no one to defend us. Our institutions are vacant, even if men and consultants
move in. I advise you to visit the country. The visit may be a farewell, because
Lebanon can end before the expiration of Michel Aoun’s era.”
In the fall of 2016, the Lebanese Parliament elected General Aoun as President
of the Republic. The election was a kind of endorsement of a coup represented in
imposing a long vacuum in the presidential palace and stipulating that only Aoun
be elected to fill this vacuum.
Back then, my Lebanese friend was somehow optimistic. He believed that
Hezbollah, which brought Aoun to the presidency, would not let his major
Christian ally fail. He expected that the first year of the new era would
witness the birth of a “defense strategy” that would restore the image of the
state, its security and constitutional institutions. He also hoped that the
party would offer a precious gift to Aoun by refraining from using Beirut as a
platform to support the open Iranian coup in the region. My friend was confident
that Aoun deserved such gifts, in light of the stance he took over the series of
assassinations, the siege of the Grand Serail, and the events of May 7.
But Aoun’s tenure has almost elapsed without receiving the gifts that could have
saved the country from the “great collapse.” I was not as optimistic as my
friend, but I wished for the general’s success in the palace.
The truth is that Aoun’s story is long, thorny and painful. His popularity
cannot be denied, and his ability to be harsh and offending cannot be
overlooked. He was an officer who despised weak legitimacy, and concealed a coup
under his olive green uniform. He trained in the barracks on the illusion of the
savior and the disrespect of the civilians and the “pie eaters”. Like all
Maronite politicians and generals, he was afflicted with the “curse of the
palace.”
The long stay in exile deepened Aoun’s feeling that the palace was being stolen
from him. He felt it was taken from him when President Elias Hrawi’s was elected
and his residency was further extended. It was also stolen when it was given to
General Emile Lahoud. When Rafik Hariri’s remains were scattered, the general
returned from exile, and the symptoms of the savior and “the curse of the
palace” augmented.
He moved from the side of Bashir Gemayel to that of Hassan Nasrallah, awaiting
his presidential dream to be fulfilled. His bitterness doubled. He saw the
palace being stolen again for the benefit of a general named Michel Suleiman. He
ran out of patience.
About six years ago, after he played the role of dismantling the March 14
environment, he finally got the opportunity, as the vast emptiness of the palace
alarmed his opponents. Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea agreed to
take the bitter drug so that we would not call it the cup of poison. Only Nabih
Berri refused to swallow the medicine. There were those who whispered that day
that Hezbollah’s commitment does not entail paying the price for his success.
To ensure the realization of the dream, the general agreed to enter the palace
after obtaining the consent of Beit Al-Wasat, the Clemenceau crossing, and the
Maarab checkpoint, despite the chronic lack of conviviality with the chiefs of
the three crossings.
At the beginning of the tenure, some people believed that Aoun would seize the
historical moment to reinstate balance to the Lebanese structure and restore the
state’s image, regardless of the limits of his powers.
Some people thought that with Aoun, the palace would be a meeting point and
would contribute to alleviating Shiite-Sunni tension… That it would be a bridge
of dialogue between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Forces, while keeping the
president’s Free Patriotic Movement away from the greed of ministerial seats and
administrative appointments.
The Lebanese did not find in the president the former Aoun, who was calling for
the state of institutions and threatening to “turn the tables” to fight the
corrupt. During his reign, the citizens’ funds evaporated, and Lebanon lost the
relationships on which it had relied during difficult hours.
Aoun has coexisted so far with Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, whom the
Lebanese have the right to see before a fair court to explain the strange
schemes he designed, with the approval of successive governments and
parliaments, and contributed to the terrible collapse.
It’s a sad story for the general. It’s painful for his country. He accepted that
his “strong” tenure emerge with two heads, with the ambitious son-in-law
overstepping the man who brought him in.
Poverty prevailed, and the young men and women carried their bags in search of a
decent living. Lebanon lost its stability, prosperity and meaning.
I know that many forces would have liked to see Aoun fail. But what is certain
is that the general’s major blow came from within the ranks that are addicted to
applause and praise. The deadly poison meal was prepared in the palace itself,
and in the circle that seemed unfamiliar with the realities and balances of
Lebanon and the importance of restoring the state to prevent complete collapse.
In the parliamentary elections, quite a few of Lebanese sent a message of
protest against the great collapse and the president’s approach. The results
showed a certain decline in his popularity within his sect and at the national
level.
Will Aoun read the message and punish those who poisoned his days at the palace,
or will he just raise the slogan of the “forensic audit” while his tenure is
about to end?
Holding Aoun solely responsible for the Lebanese catastrophe is unfair, but to
absolve him of responsibility is also a great injustice. Aoun was elected
president of an exhausted palace in a tired republic.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published
on May
23-24/2022
Coptic Pope Condemns Attacks on ‘Religious
Groups’
Raymond Ibrahim /Coptic Solidarity/May
23/2022
You know the situation of Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority is unenviable when
their otherwise notoriously diplomatic pope starts to speak up.
From the start of his papacy in 2012, Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria made clear
that he was not his predecessor, Pope Shenouda III, a man who always seemed to
call it as he saw it—so much so as to be placed under house arrest for years by
former President Sadat.
Far from having a strained relationship with the president of Egypt, Tawadros is
seen as a close ally of President al-Sisi. The two often appear standing beside
one another, shaking hands, and/or embracing. And like his president, the pope
holds the position that all Egyptians—Christians and Muslims—are brothers who
live in peace, barring the unforeseen outbursts of some elements that “do not
represent Egyptian society.” While many understand the delicate nature of the
pope’s position and his need to be diplomatic, not a few Copts think he goes too
far, behaving not unlike a cowed dhimmi who dares never object lest worse
follow. Even so, and as a representation of the
apparently worsening plight of Egypt’s Christians, the normally passive pope
uncharacteristically spoke out recently. According to an April 14, 2022 report,
Following multiple incidents targeting Coptic Orthodox Christians in Egypt
during Ramadan, Pope Tawadros II, Pope of Alexandria and the Head of the Coptic
Orthodox Church, released a statement urging the strengthening of co-existence.
In a statement released on the official Facebook page for the Coptic
Church’s spokesperson, Pope Tawadros II condemned attacks on religious groups in
Egypt. Meanwhile, during a sermon at Anba Bishoy Monastery in Wadi El-Natrun,
the Pope mourned the killing of the Priest of the Church of the Virgin Mary and
Mar Boulos, Arsanios Wadid, on 7 April 2022, in a tragic crime where a
60-year-old man stabbed the Priest to death in Alexandria.…
The Pope also requested the authorities “responsible for maintaining peace” to
carefully investigate the reports of disappearances and kidnappings of Coptic
Christians that have been circulating across social media and television
programs. This came in response to a viral story about a woman named Mariam
Waheeb, a Coptic Orthodox woman from Beni Swef, who was reported by social media
users to have been kidnapped on 5 April 2022. Mariam later appeared publicly in
a live video, on 12 April 2022, announcing that she had converted to Islam.
The Pope also seemingly condemned recent media coverage surrounding a Christian
woman whose daughter was prevented from eating food at a restaurant before the
breaking of the fast for Muslims…Two days later, Egypt’s leading independent
Arabic newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm, published an article in print and online
asking whether “infidels” (non-Muslims) should be served food before iftar. …It
is, of course, good that the spiritual leader of the Coptic people is speaking
up—even if in circuitous and ambiguous language, for instance, by condemning
“attacks on religious groups in Egypt,” when the only “religious group” that
ever gets attacked is his own flock, namely, “Christians.” Similarly, he called
on Egypt’s Muslims to observe common decency and exercise a sense of justice,
though only through a distinctly Islamic paradigm: “We are currently living [in]
a blessed month of fasting and worship,” Tawadros said in his statement
regarding Ramadan. “So it is inappropriate to publish articles or broadcast
videos that harm or offend any religious group in Egypt, to preserve the safety
and stability of our country, and prevent the distortion of its image in front
of ourselves and abroad.”
He also closed his statement in language that captures the talking points of
Sisi’s government: We live together in a new republic,
whose renaissance is led by His Excellency President Abdelfattah Al Sisi with
all the officials in all sectors. But this new republic is not only projects and
achievements, which we are all happy with and proud of, it is also the renewing
of minds and thoughts through education, correcting concepts, strengthening
values of coexistence and true citizenship, and preserving the bonds of national
unity. The take away from all this? The situation for Egypt’s Coptic Christian
minority is getting worse, not better. Meanwhile, the head of the Coptic nation
apparently needs to continue walking that ultra-fine line, lest it gets even
worse.
Iran warns it will 'avenge' killing of Guards colonel
Agence France Presse/Monday, 23 May, 2022
Iran will avenge the killing of a Revolutionary Guard colonel who was shot dead
in Tehran, President Ebrahim Raisi warned on Monday. Assailants on motorcycles
on Sunday hit Colonel Sayyad Khodai with five bullets as he sat in his car
outside his Tehran home. Iran blamed "elements linked to the global arrogance",
its term for its arch enemy the United States and Washington's allies including
Israel. It was the most high-profile killing inside Iran since the November 2020
murder of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh. Raisi said: "I insist on the
serious pursuit (of the killers) by security officials, and I have no doubt that
the blood of this great martyr will be avenged."There is no doubt that the hand
of global arrogance can be seen in this crime," he added, echoing the Guards'
assertion the previous day. He was speaking just ahead of visiting Oman, where
he was to meet Sultan Haitham bin Tariq. A memorial service for Khodai was
scheduled in Tehran at 5:00 pm local time (1230 GMT), though it was not yet
clear where or when he would be buried. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps --
the ideological arm of Iran's military -- described Khodai as a "defender of the
sanctuary", a term used for those who work on behalf of the Islamic republic in
Syria or Iraq. Iran maintains significant political influence in both countries
and has backed President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria's grinding civil war.
State television noted that Khodai was "known" in Syria, where Iran has
acknowledged deploying "military advisers".
- 'Criminal act' -
The official news agency IRNA said Khodai was killed by five bullets as he
returned home at around 4:00 pm on Sunday (1130 GMT).
The agency published pictures showing a man slumped over in the driver's seat of
a white car, with blood around the collar of his blue shirt and on his right
arm. He was strapped in with his seat belt, and the front window on the
passenger side had been shot out.
The Fars news agency reported that the state prosecutor had visited the scene of
the killing and ordered the "quick identification and arrest of the authors of
this criminal act".
The Guards said they had arrested several "thugs linked to the intelligence
agency of the Zionist regime," as Iran calls its enemy Israel.
A statement said the suspects had been involved in a series of crimes, including
"robberies, kidnappings and vandalism".
"The dimensions of this assassination are being investigated," said the
spokesman for the joint chiefs of staff of the Iranian armed forces, General
Abolfazl Shakarji.
Khodai's killing came as negotiations between Iran and world powers to restore a
frayed 2015 nuclear deal have stalled since March.
One of the main sticking points is Tehran's demand to remove the Guards from a
US terrorism list -- a request rejected by Washington.
The 2015 agreement gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its
nuclear program to prevent Tehran from developing an atomic bomb -- something it
has always denied wanting to do.
But the nuclear agreement was left hanging by a thread after then US president
Donald Trump pulled out of it unilaterally in 2018 and re-imposed biting
economic sanctions on Tehran, prompting Iran to begin rolling back on its own
commitments.
Quds Force Colonel Assassinated in Tehran
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 May, 2022
In a rare assassination, a colonel in the Quds Force, the foreign arm of Iran’s
Revolutionary Guard, was killed by unknown gunmen who attacked his car outside
his home in the east of the capital, Tehran, according to Iranian official
media.According to Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard,
the slain officer was identified as Hassan Sayyad-Khodayari. “He was
assassinated in his car outside his personal residence,” said the agency, adding
that Sayyad-Khodayari’s wife was the first to find his body. The Guard -- the
ideological arm of Iran's military -- described the man as a “defender of the
sanctuary,” a term used for anyone who works on behalf of Iran in Syria or Iraq.
One of the witnesses told the Revolutionary Guards' Fars News Agency that they
heard a loud sound of a motorbike moving away from the scene, adding that he
reached Sayyad-Khodayari car, who was breathing his last, and called the
ambulance teams immediately. In contrast to the Tasnim Agency, the Revolutionary
Guard said in an official statement that the killed officer was Colonel Sayyad
Khodai. The Guard described the targeting of Khodai as a “terrorist operation,”
accusing what it called “elements linked to global arrogance” of being behind
it.The Guard said they launched an investigation to identify the “aggressor or
aggressors.”The Fars news agency reported that the state prosecutor visited the
scene of the killing and ordered the “quick identification and arrest of the
authors of this criminal act.”
The assassination came within a short time after the Guard’s intelligence
service announced the discovery and arrest of members of an Israeli spy network,
according to the government's ISNA news agency. A statement said the suspects
were involved in a series of crimes, including “robberies, kidnappings and
vandalism.”The killing of Khodai is the most high-profile murder inside Iran
since the November 2020 killing of top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Freed UK woman says Iran forced her to sign false
confession
Associated Press/Monday, 23 May, 2022
A British-Iranian charity worker who was detained in Tehran for almost six years
says she was forced by Iranian officials to sign a false confession to spying
before she was freed two months ago. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe said British
government officials were present at Tehran airport when "under duress" she
signed the false admission to spying. She said she was told by Iranian officials
that "you won't be able to get on the plane" unless she signed. "The whole thing
of me signing the forced confession was filmed," Zaghari-Ratcliffe told the BBC
in an interview broadcast Monday. "It's a tool. So I'm sure they will show that
some day." Opposition Labour Party lawmaker Tulip Siddiq, who represents
Zaghari-Ratcliffe's home district in London, said the revelation raised "serious
questions" for the British government. She said Foreign Secretary Liz Truss
"must set out in Parliament what she knew about this shocking revelation and
what consequences it could have for my constituent." Zaghari-Ratcliffe was
detained at Tehran's airport in April 2016 as she was returning home to Britain
after visiting family in Iran. She was employed by the Thomson Reuters
Foundation, the charitable arm of the news agency, but she was on vacation at
the time of her arrest. Zaghari-Ratcliffe was sentenced to five years in prison
after she was convicted of plotting the overthrow of Iran's government, a charge
that she, her supporters and rights groups denied. She had been under house
arrest at her parents' home in Tehran for the last two years. She and another
dual citizen, Anoosheh Ashoori, were released and flown back to the U.K. in
March. Their release came after Britain paid a 400 million pound ($503 million)
debt to Iran stemming from a dispute over tanks that were ordered in the 1970s
but were never delivered.
Zelenskyy Urges 'Maximum' Sanctions on Russia in Davos Talk
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 May, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for “maximum” sanctions against
Russia during a virtual speech on the first day of the World Economic Forum
gathering of corporate executives, government officials and other VIPs in Davos,
Switzerland. He said sanctions need to go further to stop Russia’s aggression,
including an oil embargo, blocking all of its banks and cutting off trade with
Russia completely, The Associated Press said. “This is what sanctions should be:
They should be maximum, so that Russia and every other potential aggressor that
wants to wage a brutal war against its neighbor would clearly know the immediate
consequences of their actions," Zelenskyy said. He said that should be a
precedent that will work for decades to come. He also pushed for the complete
withdrawal of foreign companies from Russia to prevent supporting its war and
said Ukraine needs funding — at least $5 billion per month. The Group of Seven
leading economies agreed Friday to provide $19.8 billion in economic aid to
Ukraine to help keep tight finances from hindering its ability to defend itself.
Zelenskyy says his people’s courage has stirred unseen unity of the democratic
world. His speech was a key focus at Davos, the village in the Swiss Alps that
has been transformed into a glitzy venue for the four-day confab ostensibly
dedicated to making the world a better place. The event is resuming in person
after a two-year hiatus because of the COVID-19 pandemic, which also delayed
this year’s meeting from its usual winter slot because of uncertainty over the
omicron variant. For the attendees, there's much to tackle amid soaring food and
fuel prices, Russia’s war in Ukraine, climate change, inequality and persistent
health crises. But it’s hard to predict if the high-minded discussions will
yield substantial announcements that make headway on the world’s most pressing
challenges. “This war is really a turning point of history and it will reshape
our political and our economic landscape in the coming years,” the event's
founder, Klaus Schwab, said. The elite attendees have filled the conference
venue, to both schmooze and listen to panel discussions on topics like the
Russia-Ukraine war, climate change and the global economic outlook. Attendees
also are visiting nearby pavilions on Davos’ main drag set up by companies like
Intel, Accenture and Facebook owner Meta. There’s also a sizable Ukrainian
government delegation attending in person, making their case for more Western
support in the country’s fight against Russia. Russian officials have not been
invited to Davos this year, with what was dubbed the “Russia House" having been
transformed by critics — including Ukrainian tycoon Victor Pinchuk and the
country’s Foreign Ministry — into what they call the “Russia War Crimes
House."The venue features photos of crimes and cruelties that Russian forces are
accused of perpetuating. Some victims will speak out — including Anatoliy
Fedoruk, the mayor of Bucha, a town near Kyiv where killings of civilians drew
outrage. While Ukraine will capture attention on the meeting’s first day,
climate and environmental issues will be a constant theme as the forum looks to
future challenges as much as the current ones. One-third of the roughly 270
panel discussions through Thursday’s finale will focus on climate change or its
effects, with extreme weather, efforts to reach “net zero” emissions and finding
new, cleaner sources of energy on the agenda.
2nd Senior Aide to Israeli PM Quits
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 May, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's chief of staff resigned on Monday, less
than two weeks after another senior aide did the same. A statement from the
prime minister's office gave no reason for the departure of Tal Gan Zvi after a
decade at Bennett's side. Shimrit Meir, the premier's senior adviser, resigned
on May 13 citing "considerable sacrifices in (her) personal life". Israeli media
have reported feuding among Bennett's inner circle. Bennett cobbled together a
cross-partisan coalition to end Benjamin Netanyahu's record 12-year run as prime
minister in June. A walkout by a lawmaker from his own party has since cost
Bennett his one-seat majority in parliament. But a lawmaker from Israel's Arab
minority said on Sunday she was returning to Bennett's coalition, restoring its
tenuous hold over half of the seats in parliament after she briefly bolted in
solidarity with the Palestinians. Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi of the liberal Meretz
party said in a statement that she reversed course in order to "make gains
addressing the needs of the Arab community" and after several of its local
leaders placed her "under immense pressure" to do so. The White House said on
April 24 that Biden would visit Israel "over the coming months" at Bennett's
invitation. No date has been published, but an official briefed on the
discussions said the visit could take place in late June or early July.
Security Guard Killed in Qatar Embassy in Paris
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 May, 2022
A security guard was killed in the early hours of Monday inside the Qatar
Embassy in Paris, a source close to the investigation said. The incident took
place at around 0630 (0430 GMT), the source said, adding that the suspect had
entered the embassy and had a row with the security guard, who died after being
punched. The Paris prosecutor's office confirmed the death and said one person
had been arrested on the spot."I can confirm that an investigation was opened
today on the count of murder," the prosecutor's office said.
Intra-Kurdish Rapprochement Paves Way for Resolving
Political Impasse in Iraq
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 23 May, 2022
Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani revealed that common ground has
been outlined for resolving the political impasse in the region and all of Iraq,
announcing at the same time the suspension of media campaigns between the two
main parties in the region, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Barzani attended the graduation ceremony of
503 Peshmerga officers in Sulaimani’s Qalachwalan Military Academy, during which
he delivered a speech, calling on political parties to resolve issues.Bafel
Talabani, PUK co-chair, attended the ceremony. “We are still in contact with the
parties in Iraq and the Kurdistan region to address the political impasse,” said
Barzani. “We succeeded at stopping the media war between the KDP and PUK, as we
reached a ground for resolving the political blockage,” he added, explaining
that “there are no unsolvable problems, but there are a lot of obstacles that
pop up now and then.”Barzani stressed that “protecting Iraq is an important
matter, and that the region should be part of the protection of the Iraqi
state.”He said that “the federal system in Iraq will be a factor in
strengthening Iraq’s sovereignty.”
He stressed the need to “protect the borders and sovereignty of Iraq, and that
the internal decision be purely Iraqi.”Barzani recalled the role played by the
Kurdish Peshmerga forces during the first period of the occupation of Iraq in
2003. “After the overthrow of the previous regime, security and stability in
many Iraqi regions, including the capital, Baghdad, were maintained by the
Peshmerga,” he stated. “In the war against (ISIS) the Peshmerga was supportive
of the Iraqi forces and the protection of the provinces of Kirkuk and Diyala and
contributed to defeating the terrorist organization on the side of the federal
forces,” added the president.
Qatar's ruler evokes Abou Akleh in Davos, calls out West
on double standards
Associated Press/Monday, 23 May, 2022
The ruler of Qatar called out Monday double standards in the West while evoking
the killing of a Palestinian-American journalist during an Israeli raid this
month. Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani said during a speech at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that “we should not accept a world where
governments have double standards about the value of people based on their
region, race or religion."He added: “We consider the value of each European life
to be just as precious as someone from our region.”Al Jazeera, which is
headquartered in Qatar and was started by Sheikh Tamim’s father in the 1990s,
says Israeli gunfire killed its longtime correspondent Shireen Abu Akleh on May
11. Israel says she may have been shot by its forces but maintains it cannot be
certain without further forensic evidence. Sheikh Tamim called on the world’s
political and business elites gathered in Davos to give as much attention as
they are to Ukraine to resolving all forgotten or ignored conflicts. He said
“the most glaring example is in Palestine" praying that “the world wakes up to
the injustice and violence and finally acts.”
WHO says monkeypox transmission can be stopped outside
endemic countries
Agence France Presse/Monday, 23 May, 2022
The monkeypox outbreaks in non-endemic countries can be contained and
human-to-human transmission of the virus stopped, the World Health Organization
said Monday. "We want to stop human-to-human transmission. We can do this in the
non-endemic countries... This is a containable situation," the WHO's emerging
diseases lead Maria Van Kerkhove told a live interaction on the U.N. health
agency's social media channels.
Israeli Arab lawmaker rejoins coalition days after
quitting
Associated Press/Monday, 23 May, 2022
An Arab Israeli lawmaker who quit the ruling coalition said Sunday that she was
returning to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's 60-member alliance, ending a
crisis that lasted just a few days. Ghaida Rinawie Zoabi said Thursday that she
was quitting Bennett's coalition, leaving it with with just 59 members in
Israel's 120-seat parliament. She cited the government's hardline policies in
Jerusalem and West Bank settlement construction that she said have alienated her
constituents, fellow Palestinian citizens of Israel. Two other legislators from
Bennett's own party have already broken ranks and joined the opposition, headed
by former leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Rinawie Zoabi's departure had raised the
possibility of new parliamentary elections less than a year after Bennett's
broad coalition government took office. But even with a 60-member coalition
that's deadlocked with the opposition, passing legislation will remain
difficult. Recent Israeli-Palestinian tensions, set off by several deadly
Palestinian attacks against Israel and Israeli arrest raids in the occupied West
Bank, and fueled by repeated clashes between Israeli police and Palestinian
protesters at a flashpoint Jerusalem holy site, have shaken the coalition's
stability. But on Sunday Rinawie Zoabi reversed course, saying that her main
concern was securing "achievements for the needs of Arab society" in Israel, and
preventing an ultranationalist extremist in the opposition from becoming the
next minister in charge of police. She made the announcement of her return to
the coalition's ranks after meeting with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who wrote
on Twitter that the two had "an open and reasonable conversation about the real
needs of Arab society" and put aside their disagreements. As leader of a small
nationalist party Bennett heads an unwieldy coalition of eight diverse parties —
from dovish factions supporting Palestinian statehood to ultranationalists and,
for the first time in Israel's history, an Islamist Arab party. They joined
forces in June after four consecutive deadlocked elections with the aim of
ousting longtime prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is on trial for
corruption. As part of their union, the parties agreed to set aside divisive
issues, like Palestinian statehood, and focus instead on topics such as the
coronavirus pandemic and the economy. Despite its internal divisions, it has
managed to pass a budget, navigate the pandemic and strengthen relations with
both the Biden administration and Israel's Arab allies.
UN-Sponsored Yemeni Talks in Amman to Complete Truce Terms
Aden – Ali Rabih/Monday, 23 May, 2022
Yemeni delegates are expected to start a new round of talks this week in the
Jordanian capital, Amman. Consultations are a part of the efforts exerted to
reach consensus for implementing the rest of the items of the Yemeni
humanitarian truce in place. Lifting the siege on the city of Taiz and opening
vital roads to contact areas are examples of the items Yemeni representatives
will be discussing. Houthis militias officially announced that their
representatives would go Sunday to Amman to attend the consultations. For its
part, the Yemeni government had identified its delegates after the truce entered
into force. The truce expires on July 2, but the UN hopes to extend it and build
on it to launch multiple tracks of consultations aimed at finding lasting peace.
Meanwhile, Yemeni and human rights activists launched a wide campaign on social
media on Sunday to demand the lifting of the siege on Taiz. At least 26 human
rights organizations have signed a statement calling for international pressure
to compel the Houthis to end the siege on the Yemeni city. The statement called
on the international community to pay adequate attention to the siege on Taiz
and the humanitarian crisis it generated there. The human rights groups called
on the international community to prioritize Taiz to end the war in Yemen, given
the central importance of this file in the Yemen crisis. “Taiz has been
subjected to a suffocating siege since 2015, in light of an international
engagement that makes lifting this siege and alleviating the suffering of its
civilians a sub-issue that receives little attention, with promises that are
soon repudiated,” said the statement.“The Taiz file is not considered except in
some of the margins of international efforts and discussions to end the war in
Yemen, despite the city living in the harshest conditions of war,” it added.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May
23-24/2022
Audio/Deal
or No Deal: Confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran the Reagan Way
FDD/May 23/2022
https://www.fdd.org/podcasts/2022/05/20/deal-or-no-deal-confronting-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-the-reagan-way/
Clifford D. May/Mark Dubowitz/Toby
Dershowitz/Richard Goldberg
Listen
FDD · Deal or No Deal: Confronting the Islamic Republic of Iran the Reagan Way
About
FDD experts have worked for more than a decade on the threat posed by the
Islamic Republic of Iran.
As part of a multi-pronged strategy, FDD has shared nonpartisan research and
analyses with policymakers, lawmakers, and the business community.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is slated to hold its first public
hearing on the theocratic regime in more than two years with administration
officials and top experts, and they have invited FDD’s Mark Dubowitz – who
founded our Iran program – to testify as an expert witness.
He joins Foreign Podicy host Cliff May — along with FDD’s Rich Goldberg, who
recently served on the National Security Council as the Director for Countering
Iranian Weapons of Mass Destruction; and FDD’s Toby Dershowitz who has played a
significant role in shaping and messaging policies to counter the threats from
Tehran — to discuss the impending Iran nuclear deal.”
Assassination of IRGC officer reveals Iran’s hollow system
- analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/May 23/2022
Col. Hassan Sayyad Khodayari was involved in planning attacks on Jews and
Israelis around the world.
Iranians attend a rally marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, on the
last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan in Tehran
The assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Col. Hassan Sayyad
Khodayari is the latest humiliation for the Iranian regime and comes in the
context of Tehran’s increasing drone threats against Israel.
The officer, who reportedly served in Syria and was involved in planning attacks
on Jews and Israelis worldwide, was killed outside his home. Graphic photos in
Iranian media show his body slumped over in the front seat of his car. Within
hours of the announcement, Iranian media claimed to have arrested “thugs related
to the Zionist regime’s intelligence service.”
The killing comes eight months after details about the assassination of nuclear
scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh were published last September. In February, the BBC
reported, “Israel’s Mossad is suspected of high-level Iran penetration.”
In late April, foreign reports emerged that an IRGC official named Mansour
Rasouli was nabbed and interrogated by the Mossad in the Islamic Republic. Also
in late April, it was reported that the Mossad had prevented an Iranian plot to
target Israelis in Turkey. There was also a plot revealed last October that
showed Iran trying to target an Israeli businessman in Cyprus.
There have also been numerous Iranian threats to Israel in the last several
years involving drones. Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned about Iranian drone
bases last November. Tehran has tried to send drones to Venezuela. It opened a
drone factory in Tajikistan, and in February, two Iranian drones were
intercepted over Iraq by the US-led coalition. Those drones were headed for
Israel. This comes after Iran used a drone in May 2021 to target the Jewish
state, after Israel used F-35s to shoot down Iranian drones the previous March.
Meanwhile, there are increased tensions with Hezbollah after it used a drone to
try to penetrate Israeli airspace this month, and after Hezbollah claimed it
flew a drone into Israeli airspace in February. Furthermore, Israel’s recent
Chariots of Fire drill was the largest in decades and appears to be part of
preparations for potential conflict with Iran and its proxies.
Iran has also been busy, threatening the US and Israel from bases in Syria and
Iraq, as well as targeting the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. The attack on
Erbil in mid-March was reportedly a message aimed at Jerusalem, with Tehran
claiming it had zeroed in on Israeli targets.
This means the larger picture is that Iran continues to try to strike at Israel.
But it is Iran that appears to be suffering humiliation at home, since it cannot
even defend key members of the IRGC in its own capital.
THE RECENT assassination struck Khodayari in front of his home, according to
reports and photographic evidence. Iran’s own IRNA media has admitted this,
meaning the regime is openly admitting failure after failure. All Iran can do is
posture and claim that its enemies – those working with “global arrogance” – are
targeting the Islamic Republic in broad daylight in secure areas of Tehran near
parliament.
The picture that emerges is that Iran is more vulnerable than in the past. While
the regime’s proxies have grown in power in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, the
regime itself appears hollow. It is suffering economic challenges and, besides
its drone, missile and satellite programs, has few achievements to show.
Although Tehran is adding centrifuges and enriching uranium, it still faces
hurdles in its nuclear program. In some ways, Iran’s problem mirrors that of
Pakistan several decades ago: a country on the brink of a nuclear weapon that
has severe problems at home.
Iran’s problem is that its proxies have grown too powerful and they face angry
backlashes in elections in Lebanon and Iraq. It is forced to backfill the weak
Syrian regime, and its conflict in Yemen drags on and on. The only card Tehran
can play is to threaten to destabilize the region through drone attacks on
places such as the United Arab Emirates.
Iran also knows its adversaries are working more closely together lately,
including on naval drills; it can see US Central Command delegations visiting
Israel. It knows Hamas has been outfoxed by the Jewish state, stuck in Gaza and
unable to break out into the West Bank. And its proxies like Palestinian Islamic
Jihad operate only as a way to harass Israel.
The latest assassination illustrates Iran’s hollow threats, and the regime has
so far shown it has few ways to directly respond. Reports of Israel’s
penetration have also grown, giving Israel more of a spotlight than in the past.
That can humiliate Tehran – which can cause it to be more chaotic and risky in
its response.
Russia’s Withdrawal From Syria Is an Opportunity for Israel
Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer/Newsweek/May 23/2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz revealed details about the largest Israel
Defense Force (IDF) drill in recent years last week. The drill included
simulated airstrikes on Iran and a simulated multi-front war against Iran-backed
proxies in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. The message was unmistakable: The Israeli
government is weighing its military options, and the military is readying for
whatever the government decides. Iran should be worried.
Right now, however, all eyes are on Syria. The war in Ukraine has prompted
Russia to redeploy some forces and hardware out of Syria, where it has been
buttressing the embattled regime of Bashar al-Assad. As the Russians depart, the
Iranians want to fill the void.
The Israelis are determined not to let that happen. The Syrian-Israeli border,
as well as key bases and facilities in Syria, have witnessed significant clashes
in recent years. The Iranian regime continues to build its capabilities to
target Israel from this war-torn territory. And Israel continues to erode those
capabilities.
One of the most dramatic incidents occurred in 2018, when an armed Iranian drone
crossed into Israel. The drone was dispatched from T4 Air Base in Syria. The IDF
shot it down, then launched one of the largest military operations in Syria in
decades.
Such clashes, along with other incidents across the Middle East and even in
Iranian territory, are part of the new reality in the region. Israel calls it
the “war between wars.” It’s a campaign to damage Iran’s capabilities in
Lebanon, Syria, and anywhere the Islamic Republic is preparing to wage war
against Israel.
Once upon a time, Israel only targeted Tehran’s proxies when they attacked
first. But Israel’s leaders understand this is no longer viable, particularly in
Syria, where Iran appears determined to establish offensive capabilities on
Israel’s doorstep.
Israel is also operating against Iranian smuggling of what they call
“game-changing weapons,” a euphemism for precision guided munitions (PGMs).
Israel is tracking PGM parts, production machines, and anything else that might
contribute to independent PGM production.
With Iran’s guidance, Hezbollah has been manufacturing PGMs or converting older
rockets into PGMs. Reports suggest that Hezbollah is assembling PGMs in
underground facilities in Lebanon, producing a few PGMs per day.
The Russian departure from Syria is now a danger and an opportunity for Israel.
The Iranians clearly seek to fill the void in key territory that Russia vacates.
But such plans are predictable and transparent. Israeli military operations can
potentially force the Iranians out. Indeed, without the Russians and their
advanced air defense systems, the Israeli Air Force should have significantly
more freedom to maneuver.
After years of careful deconfliction with the Kremlin driven by the fear of
accidentally targeting Russian jets in the skies over Syria or Russian troops on
the ground, the IDF can now press its advantage. With the Russians focused on
Ukraine, the number of Israeli operations in Syria has reportedly already
increased and will likely only intensify.
Even the Assad regime, which would have lost power without Iranian and Russian
intervention, may welcome an intensifying Israeli campaign; the Iranian regime
has overstayed its welcome in Syria, violating the country’s sovereignty and
encumbering its diplomatic ties to the Arab world. Indeed, several pragmatic
Arab states are in favor of jettisoning Iranian forces from Syria in an effort
to stabilize the region after years of tumult.
But even if Israel drives Iran out of Syria, Hezbollah’s PGM production in
Lebanon remains a threat Israel cannot ignore. The rules of engagement until now
have been such that Israel has mostly avoided striking inside Lebanon. That may
need to change, particularly as the estimated stockpile of these
weapons—estimated in the hundreds presently—continues to grow.
A war against Hezbollah is one that Israel has long avoided to prevent
widespread damage, but it would be far worse for Lebanon, which is currently
writhing in political and economic crises. Hezbollah understands that a
destructive war in Lebanon will hurt its own image, not to mention its
capabilities.
Israel’s message now should be tailored not only to Hezbollah but to the regime
in Teheran. In 2009, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei directed his military to invest
heavily in PGMs, knowing they would enable the regime or its proxies to strike
Israeli targets within 10 feet of their intended mark. The IDF has declared
PGM’s to be Israel’s second most dire threat, subordinate only to Iran’s nuclear
program. Through the “war between wars,” Israel’s message has been one of
action, not words.
Successive U.S. administrations have looked the other way while Israel has
targeted Iranian smuggling and military activity in Syria. But if the United
States signs the deeply-flawed looming nuclear deal with Iran, the massive
sanctions relief that Iran receives would be a boon to Iran’s military efforts.
War in Ukraine: The World Adapts to New Realities
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/May 23/2022
Russia could not have foreseen such strong military resistance on the ground.
The resolve and solidarity in the West and sanctions have also been well beyond
Russia’s expectations.
Russia has finally broken the defenses in Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks.
Ukrainian soldiers have left the grounds. But the war is not at an end. Far from
it. Putin is the global culprit. As the leader who ordered the invasion of
Ukraine, he bears full responsibility for the sufferings and destruction.
Visuals which keep coming out indicate that Russia has committed war crimes.
Russian aggression against Ukraine is having implications well beyond Ukraine’s
borders and life has been affected in many ways. Global food and energy security
are at risk. Prices everywhere are rising and many governments are concerned
with possible social impact. The war has disrupted agricultural exports from
Russia and Ukraine. More vulnerable geographies such as the Middle East and
Africa have been more affected. Egypt and Lebanon for example, are among those
countries who already have problems and have been hit extra by increasing wheat
prices. As if war alone was not enough, negative weather conditions and poor
harvests have brought about extra difficulties. India’s stopping of wheat
exports due to these reasons has been another blow.
Russia has world’s largest natural gas reserves and it produces around 17
percent of global natural gas. Russia provides to the EU 40% of its natural gas
and 27% of its oil. Russia has recently weaponized its gas exports. The last
country which Russia is going to stop sending gas is Finland, as announced by
Finnish state owned energy company. Not long ago, there was a rush to sign on to
Russian gas, now there is a rush to minimize dependency on it. This is not
mission impossible. There are alternatives, but time is needed and there will be
a cost. Most existing pipelines to Europe originate from Russia. Non-Russian
pipelines are needed. This is either by building new lines or connecting to non
Russia pipelines. Shifting to LNG is another option. But it is more expensive.
Also, shipping LNG in sufficient amounts requires enough number of ships and
relevant infrastructure such as LNG terminals are needed to turn LNG into usable
form.
On the security side, cooperative security of 1990s has turned into
confrontational security. NATO’s definition of what Russia represents is that
“Russia’s aggressive actions constitute a threat to Euro-Atlantic security.”
NATO has pointed out that for more than twenty-five years, it has worked to
build a partnership with Russia but has failed “because Russia has breached the
values, principles, trust, and commitments outlined in agreed documents that
underpin the NATO-Russia relationship.”
The tone and reference regarding Russia in the upcoming NATO Summit in Madrid in
June and in the new strategic concept is expected to be more direct.
As a result of Russia’s actions, many countries in Europe have changed their
military postures and security concepts. For example, Germany has increased its
military budget and defense spending to unprecedented levels. It is also sending
weapons to Ukraine to fight against Russians. Finland and Sweden have decided to
leave behind their decades old non-aligned status and join NATO.
During the cold war, Turkey and Norway were at the flanks sharing land borders
with the USSR. After the demise of the USSR, NATO’s new members Estonia and
Latvia are sharing land borders with Russia (and Lithuania and Poland with
Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast). Now, Finland comes in with 1,340
kilometers of common borders with Russia.
President Putin has said that Moscow would respond if NATO would deploy military
infrastructure on the territories of Finland or Sweden. So Russia has voiced its
warning against NATO deployment but not against their membership. Under the
pretext of threat to its security, Russia is of the opinion that it has the
right to approve or reject a sovereign nation’s decision. However, when it comes
to deploying and building bases of its own on foreign territory, in Syria for
example, or when it invades another country with no apparent provocation, Russia
seems to adopt the opposite standard.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg reminded in Berlin last week, once again,
that all sovereign nations have the right to choose their own path.
Article 10 of the Washington Treaty, the founding agreement of NATO, allows for
enlargement for any European State which is in a position to further the
principles of the Treaty and to contribute to the security of the North Atlantic
area. NATO started with 12 countries in 1949. After eight consecutive rounds of
expansion, the last one being North Macedonia in 2020, the number of members is
30.
The most important aspect of the accession process is that all member states
have to approve. But there has been occasional problems. For example, Greece
blocked Macedonia’s accession because of the name problem. It took Greece to 10
years to drop its objection when Macedonia took the name, North Macedonia.
This time, President Erdogan of Turkey stated his country’s misgivings. His
reason was Sweden’s and also Finland’s support to terrorist organizations.
Turkey says that YPG is the Syrian extension of PKK, which is on the list of
terror organizations of all EU countries. Swedish Ministers have received YPG
representatives. Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde has announced recently that
Sweden’s assistance to YPG up to date has amounted to 210 million dollars and by
2023, this amount is planned to reach 376 million.
Sweden and Finland forwarded to NATO their applications for membership and as
part of the standard procedure, the issue was first brought to NATO Council at
the level of Ambassadors. At that meeting, the Turkish representative said he
did not have instructions to give the green light to start accession
negotiations.
The situation may seem as a new friction among the ranks of the “western world”
but it should be noted that there are no inflammatory statements and relevant
countries and officials are talking to each other.
In conclusion;
-Ukrainians are determined to fight on and the west is determined to provide
them with the means to do that.
- The war in Ukraine is bringing about many changes on a global scale and a new
security architecture in Europe is in the making.
-The most likely outcome, at least in the medium run, looks like a frozen
conflict with continued global implications.
Davos Meetings Are Full of Potential But Rarely Full of Solutions
Mohamed El-Erian/Bloomberg/May 23/2022
I have never taken up the opportunity to attend the Davos meeting and I will
pass again this year. That, however, does not mean that I do not follow its
evolution and outcomes. I am certainly interested in what could emerge from a
meeting that brings together so many leaders of governments, civil society and
business.In an ideal world, this year’s meeting would prove catalytic in two
important ways. First, it would trigger greater awareness of ongoing watershed
developments in the global economy and draw attention to how different these are
viewed around the world. And second, it would point to ways in which an
increasingly “zero-sum” view of international coordination can be reshaped to
contribute to collective resilience and inclusive prosperity.
The list of ongoing watershed developments in the global economy is long,
extending well beyond the horrific war in Ukraine and the associated human
tragedies. Here is an example of what is on such a list:
Due to the convergence of food, energy, debt and growth crises, a growing number
of poorer countries face a rising threat of famine — and this is but one part of
the “little fires everywhere” phenomenon undermining lives and livelihoods
around the world.
Inflation at 40-year highs in wealthier countries is undermining standards of
living and growth engines, hitting the poor particularly hard, fueling political
anger, eroding institutional credibility, and undermining the effectiveness of
economic and financial policy.
The inability to deal with critical secular challenges, including climate
change, is seeing short-term distractions compound what already are meaningful
long-term challenges.
Private- and public-sector efforts to strike a better balance between highly
interconnected supply chains and national/corporate resilience are complicated
by a global economy that lacks sufficient momentum for this to be done in an
orderly fashion.
The western weaponization of international finance, while effective in bringing
the eleventh largest economy in the world to its knees, has been pursued without
a global framework of standards, guidelines and safeguards.
I suspect that, while the vast majority of Davos participants will agree on this
list (and, indeed, add a few more items), there will be quite a bit of
disagreement on the causes and longer-term consequences. Such disagreement is
problematic in two ways. First, it undermines the shared responsibility needed
to address challenges with important international dimensions; and second, it
erodes even more trust in the existing international order. Unless the
disagreements can be resolved, the damaging effects will deepen and spread.
On paper, the upcoming Davos meeting would be perfectly suited for resolving
these conflicts. History, however, does not provide much encouragement or
optimism.
Time and time again, Davos has fallen victim to a lack of focus and actionable
unifying vision. Individual and collective interests have remained unreconciled.
Distractions abound. As a result, the output has been, at best,
backward-leaning.
Given the multiple crossroads facing the global economy, this would be a
particularly good time for Davos to fulfill its considerable potential — to look
ahead, not back. To identify solutions instead of just problems. Otherwise, the
forum will evolve even more into a network and social club that is, and is
widely perceived to be, even more decoupled from the realities of many and the
challenges of most.
China's Latest Power Grab Threatens Entire Pacific
Lawrence A. Franklin/Gatestone Institute./May 23/2022
All the Pacific Island nations invited to the foreign ministerial conference had
already embraced Beijing's "One China Policy." Some of these states once had
diplomatic links with Taiwan but were wooed away by Beijing's offer of financial
loans, investment and corrupt practices, such as direct interference in the
domestic political affairs that threaten the sovereignty of governmental
institutions in these island countries.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is accelerating its campaign to isolate Taiwan
from the existing international order by offering bribes to leadership figures
in some of these poor islands, in exchange for breaking with Taipei.
A Council on Foreign Relations report from May 4, 2022, "What the China-Solomon
Islands Pact Means for the US," states: "Beijing promised about $730 million in
financial aid."
[D]omination of the Pacific seems to mean to the CCP potential military control
over, or vassalage of, not only to Taiwan, but also Japan, Australia, Korea, the
Philippines, Indonesia, India and the US -- in Guam, American Samoa, Micronesia,
Northern Mariana, Palau, the Marshall Islands, and Hawai'i.
Chinese Communist Party strategists would doubtless welcome agreements with any
Pacific island to permit a Chinese military base or offers of a dual-use port
facility for China's growing navy. If Chinese warships could gain greater access
to island state port facilities, China's naval assets would be able to interrupt
free passage in international waters of US naval vessels and others, both in
major commercial sea lanes as well as military supply routes throughout the
region.
The Marshall Islands provides the US with an opportunity to shut down an ongoing
example of China's accelerating effort to project power and influence and into
the South Pacific.
The Communist Chinese government has offered to create artificial islands for
Tuvalu.... Despite the appeal of this offer, Tuvalu rejected the proposal.
Tuvalu's Prime Minister Kausea Natano instead proposed a cooperative compact
with all those Pacific island states that still maintain ties to Taiwan.
China's diplomatic offensive in the South Pacific reveals yet another effort to
replace the US as the primary superpower in the region. Pictured: Chinese
Premier Li Keqiang (R) leads Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare on
a visit to the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, on October 9, 2019.
(Photo by Wang Zhao/AFP via Getty Images)
Last October, China convened, via video link, the first foreign ministerial
conference with nine Pacific Island states: Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue,
Papua New Guinea, Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu.
The Chinese quickly followed up this initiative on December 3, 2021, by
establishing "The China-Pacific Island Countries Reserve of Emergency Supplies"
-- an arrangement that the Chinese Provincial Government of Guangdong has with
the Pacific Island countries that in the event of a public health emergency or
natural disaster, China will provide needed medical supplies.
China's diplomatic offensive in the South Pacific reveals yet another effort to
replace the US as the primary superpower in the region. All the Pacific Island
nations invited to the foreign ministerial conference had already embraced
Beijing's "One China Policy." Some of these states once had diplomatic links
with Taiwan but were wooed away by Beijing's offer of financial loans,
investment and corrupt practices, such as direct interference in the domestic
political affairs that threaten the sovereignty of governmental institutions --
such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Commerce, and the
Solomon Islands' election process -- in these island countries.
While the People's Republic of China has not yet established a formal pro-China
organization to rival the pro-Western Pacific Island Forum initiated in 1971,
the challenge to the US is clear. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
accelerating its campaign to isolate Taiwan from the existing international
order by offering bribes to leadership figures in some of these poor islands, in
exchange for breaking with Taipei.
In the case of the Solomon Islands, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare's
pro-Beijing sentiments led to an influx of Chinese nationals who were accused by
the islanders of taking jobs from the natives. Following riots in in late 2021,
regional countries, such as Australia, New Zealand, Papa New Guinea, and Fiji,
dispatched soldiers and police there, and helped restore order. As Gatestone
reported in January 2022:
"World attention was drawn to this region in early November when several days of
riotous burning which consumed sections of the capital city of Honiara on the
island of Guadalcanal in the Solomon Islands. There are several causes of the
unrest, including decades-old ethnic tensions among the Melanesian, Polynesian,
Micronesian and Chinese citizenry. Another is the existence of bitter political
partisanship within the archipelago state. This internal rivalry is personified
by the government of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare from the island of
Guadalcanal and his chief opponent Daniel Suidan, from the Island of Malaita.
Sogavare survived a no-confidence vote, earlier this month following the riots.
"The immediate cause of the recent disturbances is the perception among many
Solomon Islands natives of the corrupt influence of huge sums of money dispensed
by Communist China, which has accounted for massive interference in the domestic
politics of the Solomons. Suidan claims that PRC agents in 2019 offered PM
Sogavare a $100 million loan to switch allegiance from Taiwan, with which the
Solomons had diplomatic ties for 36 years, to Communist China. Suidan also
alleges that Mainland operatives have provided computers and cars to other
lesser politicians. The anger of the protesters focused on Honiara's Chinatown,
where many buildings were gutted by incendiaries"
A Council on Foreign Relations report from May 4, 2022, "What the China-Solomon
Islands Pact Means for the US," states:
"Beijing promised about $730 million in financial aid. The move triggered
violent anti-government unrest in the Solomon Islands that killed four people
and prompted China to offer anti-riot gear and send a team of six police liaison
officers to equip and train Solomon Islands police."
Presently, only 15 nations have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, and
four of them are in the South Pacific: the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, and
Tuvalu.
While the Pacific island states are small and the combined population of these
states approximates a mere 2.3 million, these island states are "scattered
across an area equivalent to 15% of the globe's surface." China's incentives to
increase its influence in the Pacific region, are both strategic and economic.
The South Pacific contains some of the world's best endowed fishing regions. The
Chinese fishing fleet, with nearly 17,000 boats, is the world's largest. China
captures about 20% of the world's catch and consumes about 40% of its seafood.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations:
"China's direct investment in Pacific Island countries rose from $900 million in
2013 to $4.5 billion in 2018, a 400 percent increase. Chinese companies invested
more than $2 billion in Pacific mining over the past two decades. Additionally,
China has expressed strong interests in the regions' fisheries, aquaculture,
harbor construction, and other related areas. From 2010 to 2020, total trade in
fishery products between China and the Pacific Islands increased from $35
million to $112 million. By the end of that period, eleven Chinese enterprises
had invested in the fisheries industry across six Pacific Island countries."
More than that, domination of the Pacific seems to mean to the China potential
military control over, or vassalage of, not only to Taiwan, but also Japan,
Australia, Korea, the Philippines, Indonesia, India and the US -- in Guam,
American Samoa, Micronesia, Northern Mariana, Palau, the Marshall Islands, and
Hawai'i.
Chinese Communist Party strategists would doubtless welcome agreements with any
Pacific island to permit a Chinese military base or offers of a dual-use port
facility for China's growing navy. If Chinese warships could gain greater access
to island state port facilities, China's naval assets would be able to interrupt
free passage in international waters of US naval vessels and others, both in
major commercial sea lanes as well as military supply routes throughout the
region.
Militarily, China's People's Liberation (PLA) Air and Naval forces could
leapfrog over the first and second so-called "string of pearls," coastal island
chains in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, thereby challenging any
effort by the Free World to restrict the Chinese from setting out its warships
into the open ocean.
Chinese expansionism in the Pacific, left unchecked, would certainly doom any US
effort to establish a QUAD nation (India, Japan, Australia, and the United
States) defense perimeter against China in the Pacific Ocean.
According to a report from the IISS:
"China's involvement in money politics in the Solomon Islands has mushroomed
since Honiara switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, in 2019.
Local media have alleged that payments were made from a Chinese development fund
to Solomon Islander politicians who voted down a recent no-confidence motion
against the prime minister."
Meanwhile, in April, the Solomon Islands agreed to a security pact with China,
which is now expected to establish a naval base there which could potential
threaten all the islands in the region, including Hawai'i.
Kirabati is another Pacific Island state that severed relations with Taiwan in
2019. Current President Taneti Maamau was elected in the 2018 national elections
on a pro-PRC platform. The Chinese have promised to refurbish the Canton Island
Airstrip which served as an allied heavy bomber base against Japan in WWII. If
China rebuilds the air strip, the Chinese could spy on US Pacific fleet
exercises, mobilization, and operations. The enhanced Chinese presence could
also render US Missile and Space Tracking operations on the island to closer
scrutiny.
Fiji witnessed an aggressive example of Chinese "Wolf Diplomacy" when Red
Chinese diplomats showed up unannounced at a celebration honoring Taiwan's 109th
National Day on October 8. 2020. The ensuing melée resulted in the
hospitalization of an injured Taiwanese trade representative. Although Fiji
recognizes Beijing's "One China Policy" and has formal diplomatic ties with
China, it has not protected the island state from being humiliated by Chinese
warrior diplomats, who physically assaulted Taiwan's officials at an event
hosted by Fiji's government.
Aggressive comportment by PRC diplomats, demonstrating its contempt for Pacific
Island State sovereignty, also was in evidence in Papua New Guinea's (PNG)
hosting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November 2018.
The Chinese delegation demanded a private audience with PNG's Foreign Minister.
When the delegation was instructed that this would violate APEC regulations on
transparency, the diplomats attempted to break into the PNG Foreign Minister's
office.
China's bullying tactics against Pacific Island countries' sovereignty extends
to the maritime dimension as well.
Palau, which is an archipelago state of about 340 coral islands and atolls, and
the last member of "US Trusteeship Territories" in the Pacific Ocean, became
independent in 1994. Palau entered into a "Compact of Free Association" with the
US, which stipulates that America is responsible for the island's defense until
2044. Despite this proviso, last December, Chinese fishing vessels entered
illegally into Palau's maritime economic zone prompting Palau's Coast Guard to
seize two boats. Palau, which still maintains links with Taiwan, rejected
China's offer to finance a giant fish processing plant on its territory.
Vanuatu, which has had relations with China since 1982, was also beset Chinese
fishing violations of its maritime economic zone. Two Chinese boats, the Dong
Gong 13 and Dong Gong 16, were seized close to Australian sovereign waters. The
Chinese fishermen were then temporarily detained in the country's capital, Port
Vila. Rumors persist in Vanuatu that the Chinese plan to transform a remote
wharf in Luganville on the island of "Espiritu Sancto" into a military base.
China is also exploiting "Climate Change" fears in the South Pacific where many
islands have low-lying topography. The Communist Chinese government has offered
to create artificial islands for Tuvalu. The highest point on the country's nine
islands is only 4.5 meters above sea level. Despite the appeal of this offer,
Tuvalu rejected the proposal. Tuvalu's Prime Minister Kausea Natano instead
proposed a cooperative compact with all those Pacific island states that still
maintain ties to Taiwan.
Nauru, a Pacific Island state with a population of only about 12, 000, also had
the prudence to reject a Chinese proposal. China, under the rubric of CCP
General Secretary Xi Jinping's "One Belt and Road" initiative, offered to
improve the country's poor communications infrastructure by laying undersea
communications cables. Instead, Nauru kept its ties to Taiwan and asked the
Asian Development Bank and Australia to assist it in developing of the project.
The Marshall Islands provides the US with an opportunity to shut down an ongoing
example of China's accelerating effort to project power and influence into the
South Pacific. The US "Compact of Free Association" with the Marshall Islands is
soon up for renewal. Marshall Island leaders are lobbying for an upgrade of the
agreement. They are hoping to elicit from a resistant State Department a few
billion dollars from "Uncle Sam" to compensate islanders for health and
environmental depredations as a result of nuclear waste storage on one of its
islands, as well as for the ill effects of years of atomic testing in the
region. The US also has aerospace facilities and intelligence collection nodes
there. Several Congressmen in November of 2021 dispatched a letter of concern to
US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan regarding the dispute: it appears
that hundreds of Marshallese still have adverse health conditions attributable
to the atomic blasts. Some Congressional representatives have proffered a "Blue
Pacific Act," which has bipartisan support from the House of Representatives'
(first ever) Pacific Islands Caucus. The Act would protect US military,
economic, and strategic interests in the entire South Pacific region and expand
diplomatic and non-defense related humanitarian aid programs between the US and
all of the Pacific island states.
*Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense
Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in
the Air Force Reserve.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Another Way the US Government Is Threatening National Security
Pete Hoekstra/Gatestone Institute/May 23/2022
Once again, the power brokers in DC are signaling that in American politics,
there is no room for debate on big issues, there is only one right answer.
Too often our legislative leaders forget that they are spending taxpayer money,
and that with government spending even for benefits, there is no such thing as
"free" anything. When there is no accountability, it is easy to spend someone
else's money.
Even though for their own well-being [NATO countries] should spend more for
European security, these are legitimate, internal debates for their governments
to have. It should be the same in America.
[I]n the U.S., it is frowned upon by some even to discuss why we are investing
in European security and stability.
We all would do well to remember the costly lesson from the 1930s: how quickly
Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland spread to most of Europe.
During my days in Congress, as many of us wanted to invest in defense spending,
we were faced with an ultimatum from the Democrats. For every $1 increase in
defense spending, there had to be a matching $1 increase in social spending. No
discussion about the need for that spending, just this as an expected process.
[Y]ou would think they could find some programs to cut to fund Ukrainian aid.
Not in Washington. They only increase spending, not make tough decisions about
shifting priorities as the world changes. This is unfortunate -- and ultimately
devastating to the national security funding we must have if we are successfully
to deter the potential threats to the US and the Free World by China.
Yet it seems as if the power brokers in Washington would prefer to start
name-calling their opponents and avoid having to defend their positions. This
does not make our country stronger.... We still have time -- but not much -- to
engage in a serious debate on this issue. If we do not, we shall miss a real
opportunity to prioritize what is crucial for the survival of our republic and
what is not.
Once again, the power brokers in Washington, DC are signaling that in American
politics, there is no room for debate on big issues, there is only one right
answer. (Image source: Capitol via Wikimedia Commons; man via iStock)
Within hours of 11 Republican Senators voting to delay proceeding with the
roughly $40 billion Ukraine aid package, and days after 57 Republicans voted
against the package in the House, the name calling has begun. "Isolationists!"
Others characterized those who opposed the measure as "politicizing" the issue.
Once again, the power brokers in DC are signaling that in American politics
there is no room for debate on big issues, there is only one right answer.
You would think that after crushing debate on theories about the origin of the
COVID virus; the national security hazards of our open border that permits
suspected terrorists, human trafficking and lethal drugs that last year alone
killed more than 107,000 in America to pour in, or shutting down discussion of
the Hunter Biden laptop, leaders would realize that open debate, and even
dissent, is actually a strength of our system, not a weakness.
Consider that Senator Rand Paul made a simple argument against rapid approval of
the $40 billion package -- that there should be an inspector general to oversee
and monitor how the $40 billion is spent. This is not an unreasonable request
considering the reports of massive amounts of fraud and waste of taxpayer
dollars with COVID relief funds. In many instances, where the money went -- or
whether it was effective -- cannot be identified. Too often our legislative
leaders forget that they are spending taxpayer money, and that with government
spending even for benefits, there is no such thing as "free" anything. When
there is no accountability, it is easy to spend someone else's money.
A second major argument against a rush into spending comes in the form of a
simple question: where are our European allies? It seems that there is a lot of
discussion about the strength and unity of NATO in the face of Russian
aggression in Ukraine. But beyond rhetoric, is NATO more than the hollowed-out
shell that former President Donald J. Trump alleged? The alliance was built on
the backs of the American taxpayer, who footed the bill for European security
and stability. After many of our NATO allies refused to meet their defense
spending commitments and built the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, increasing their
reliance on Russian energy supplies, are they once again counting on Americans
to bail them out?
Currently, it is the Europeans that led the charge to help Ukraine after Russia
attacked it. We all would do well to remember the costly lesson from the 1930s:
how quickly Hitler's invasion of the Sudetenland spread to most of Europe.
The U.S. already has committed or spent roughly $16 billion on Ukrainian
assistance. Europe collectively has spent roughly $7 billion. Debating whether
the U.S. taxpayer should once again foot the bill to bailout Europe is a
legitimate question that is worthy of congressional debate. Even today, sadly,
Germany, the largest economy in Europe, and the Netherlands are once again
debating whether they can and will meet their NATO spending commitments. Even
though for their own well-being they should spend more for European security,
these are legitimate, internal debates for their governments to have. It should
be the same in America.
While serving as the Ambassador to the Netherlands, I frequently was asked why
President Trump did not support NATO. The response was easy. Trump and American
taxpayers wanted to know why so many European countries did not support NATO.
Even as the war in Ukraine threatens Europe, and the Russians threaten European
energy supplies, there are those in Europe who are still debating whether they
should meet their NATO-treaty-obligated defense commitments. But in the U.S., it
is frowned upon by some even to discuss why we are investing in European
security and stability.
Finally, there is the issue of American needs. During my days in Congress, as
many of us wanted to invest in defense spending, we were faced with an ultimatum
from the Democrats. For every $1 increase in defense spending, there had to be a
matching $1 increase in social spending. No discussion about the need for that
spending, just this as an expected process.
What are we getting in return for going along with defending Ukraine's borders?
Will there be an increase in U.S. border security as more than 200,000 people
swarm across our borders every month? It is a fair question for American
taxpayers to ask why we are funding Ukrainian border security but not our own.
Finally, why does this need to be new borrowing and new expenditures? In our
massive federal spending plans, can't we find $40 billion to cut somewhere to
fund this aid? The federal government is on pace to spend over $6 trillion in
2022, so you would think they could find some programs to cut to fund Ukrainian
aid. Not in Washington. They only increase spending, not make tough decisions
about shifting priorities as the world changes. This is unfortunate -- and
ultimately devastating to the national security funding we must have if we are
successfully to deter the potential threats to the US and the Free World by
China.
Borrowing $40 billion is a debate worth having. These are all reasonable policy
questions that our Congress should consider. Putting in place a watchdog to
monitor this spending seems a reasonable request. Asking our European allies to
honor their pledges of 2% of their GDP in defense spending also seems not an
unreasonable request. Funding some of our own priorities at home further seems a
matter that should be discussed.
Yet it seems as if the power brokers in Washington would prefer to start
name-calling their opponents and avoid having to defend their positions. This
does not make our country stronger. It makes it weaker. We still have time --
but not much -- to engage in a serious debate on this issue. If we do not, we
shall miss a real opportunity to prioritize what is crucial for the literal
survival of our republic and what is not.
Peter Hoekstra was US Ambassador to the Netherlands during the Trump
administration. He served 18 years in the U.S. House of Representatives
representing the second district of Michigan and served as Chairman and Ranking
member of the House Intelligence Committee. He is currently Chairman of the
Center for Security Policy Board of Advisors.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The effect of the Iranian turbulence on the region
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 23/2022
The nuclear deal is facing a deadlock. Iran has raised the bar and made a return
to the nuclear deal impossible, so there is little chance that money will flow
into Iran anytime soon. At the same time, the economic crunch has reached its
peak and people are protesting in the cities of Iran due to a sharp increase in
food prices. How will Iran behave facing domestic popular discontent and
increasing regional failure? Financially, Iran is exhausted and needs to
consolidate its efforts internally. Not that the regime has reached breaking
point, but the system is exhausted. The financial system, similar to the
Lebanese system where people used to put their money in the bank in return for a
high interest rate, is no longer working. People are no longer putting their
money in the bank, an Iranian source of mine told me, and Iran is technically
still under maximum pressure.
Regionally, the Iranian project has reached its peak. There is not much that can
be invested anymore. What happened in Lebanon is a continuation of what happened
in Iraq and what will happen in Lebanon will be similar to what is happening in
Iraq. Iran lost the majority and, since it cannot have a government it can
control, it will push toward a deadlock. Through Hezbollah and its Shiite ally,
the Amal movement, the pro-Iran camp has claimed the 27 Shiite seats. However,
Iran and the Assad regime lost allies in other denominations. Hence, Iran is
more isolated inside Lebanon. The US dollar exchange rate to the Lebanese pound
increased immediately after the election, as everyone expected the country was
heading toward a caretaker government that would not be able to conduct any
reforms or enter into a deal with the International Monetary Fund.
However, this policy is not sustainable. Iran, now facing financial strain and
political exhaustion of proxies, is in a time-buying mode. The nuclear deal can
save the regime. It needs the money although the nuclear deal is not
sustainable. There is no way a nuclear deal can get ratified by the US Congress
even if the Joe Biden administration enters the nuclear deal, which is becoming
more and more unlikely. There are no guarantees that it will not be reneged on
by the next administration, and the chances are that the next administration
will be Republican.
The best scenario for Iran is to sign the nuclear deal and try to get as much
money as possible.
The best scenario for Iran is to sign the nuclear deal and try to get as much
money as possible in the next two years and prepare for a possible reversal. But
the condition that Iran has put, which is to remove the Revolutionary Guard
Corps from the terrorist list, makes the negotiations impossible. Face-saving is
very important for both parties.The US cannot look like it has bowed to Iran,
and Iran cannot look like it has traded its “principles” for some perks. So it
is difficult for Iran to back down on the conditions it has put forward. Since
it cannot invest any more in its proxies, it will try to consolidate political
gains. Given that it has lost majorities in Lebanon and Iraq, it will block the
formation of governments there over which it has no control.
On the other hand, it has more space to operate in Syria due to Russian
retrenchment. However, this will make it more prone to strikes from Israel.
Israel had an agreement with Russia in which Israel could hit Iranian targets
and keep Iran contained inside Syria.
With their guarantor now almost absent, the Israelis will need to get more
aggressive with Iran in Syria. With Russia gone, the Bashar Assad regime is in
jeopardy, and so is the Iranian presence, especially since Turkey is gaining
more leverage. The war in Ukraine gave Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
the role of the mediator that NATO and the US needed as well as Russia. If
Turkey pressures Russian President Vladimir Putin to give up on Assad, what will
that make of the Iranian presence in the Levant? What will that make of
Hezbollah?
Hezbollah is the flagship proxy of Iran. Hence, Iran is in a precarious
situation at home and abroad and needs to make careful calculations. It is not
the time to pick a fight with anyone. It will most likely try to consolidate
political gains by using the veto power to block any political process unless
the pro-Iran groups have some level of control. However, the deadlock is a
dangerous game as it can lead to chaos. Iran is cornered. It has diminishing
leverage and hence needs to act skillfully.
Is it the end of the regime? Not really, but the Iranian project has reached its
peak and is starting its downfall. The influence is slowly diminishing and Iran
is unlikely, if all factors are the same, to be able to supplement its proxies
with more funds. Assad visited Iran recently to ask for more support. It is
unlikely that Iran will be able to commit to more funds if the nuclear deal is
not signed.
If signed, the nuclear deal can help the regime in Iran. But, as mentioned
previously, Iran has shot itself in the foot by setting conditions it cannot
retract. Hence, in the coming period, we will see more political deadlock and a
deteriorating economic situation, namely in Lebanon. The Arab-Turkish
reconciliation is also not in Tehran’s interest. Facing this pressure and the
economic crunch, Iran will most likely try to maintain the status quo. In the
countries where it has influence, like in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, we
will see stagnation. Unless there is some sort of disruption, it is unlikely to
see a government formation in Lebanon and Iraq, and unlikely we will reach a
solution in Syria and Yemen anytime soon.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II.