English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 13/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
For God did not call us to impurity but in
holiness. Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God,
who also gives his Holy Spirit to you.
First Letter to the Thessalonians 04/01-12:”Finally,
brothers and sisters, we ask and urge you in the Lord Jesus that, as you learned
from us how you ought to live and to please God (as, in fact, you are doing),
you should do so more and more. For you know what instructions we gave you
through the Lord Jesus. For this is the will of God, your sanctification: that
you abstain from fornication; that each one of you knows how to control your own
body in holiness and honour, not with lustful passion, like the Gentiles who do
not know God; that no one wrongs or exploits a brother or sister in this matter,
because the Lord is an avenger in all these things, just as we have already told
you beforehand and solemnly warned you. For God did not call us to impurity but
in holiness. Therefore whoever rejects this rejects not human authority but God,
who also gives his Holy Spirit to you. Now concerning love of the brothers and
sisters, you do not need to have anyone write to you, for you yourselves have
been taught by God to love one another; and indeed you do love all the brothers
and sisters throughout Macedonia. But we urge you, beloved, to do so more and
more, to aspire to live quietly, to mind your own affairs, and to work with your
hands, as we directed you, so that you may behave properly towards outsiders and
be dependent on no one.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 12-13/2022
US court says man accused of scouting received military training from Hizbullah
Little progress in torture prevention in Lebanon, UN experts find
Lebanon jobless rate almost triples since crisis
Bukhari meets Daryan, hails Dar al-Fatwa's religious tolerance efforts
Daryan to GCC envoys: We won’t surrender Lebanon to enemies of Arabism
Cabinet approves 1-day passport renewal for voting on May 15
May 15 civil servants cast their early votes across Lebanon
Raja Salameh released on LBP 100 billion bail
Aoun urges for resuming port blast probe quickly, says stalemate is 'unjust'
How will Lebanon vote impact the crisis-hit economy?
Mawlawi urges Sunnis to pull Lebanon out of 'new type of war'
Despite fires, floods and power cuts, Lebanon polls shun climate issues
Sunni vote will determine the outcome of Lebanese election/Dr. Dania Koleilat
Khatib/Arab News/May 12/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 12-13/2022
Muslim Mobs Burns Female Christian Student Alive in Nigeria/Raymond
Ibrahim/May 12/2022
IRGC-Controlled Iranian Airline Makes Unexplained Flights to Russia Amidst
Invasion of Ukraine/Emanuele Ottolenghi/Policy Brief./May 12/2022
Qatari emir in Iran for talks amid tensions over nuke deal
Another Russian naval ship is on fire in the Black Sea: Ukraine
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he’s ready to talk with Putin with no ultimatum
Finland poised for NATO membership as Ukraine war crimps Russian gas
Russia warns of response to Finland NATO entry
US lifts sanctions on foreign investments in northern Syria, not Assad regime
Palestinians. Most of the international community views the settlements as
illegal.
Rights group says Israel approves 4,427 new settler homes
After over a month, Kuwaiti government’s resignation accepted
Iraq strikes deal with Iran to secure summer gas imports
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the situation of women and girls in
Afghanistan
Canada/Joint Statement by Ministers of the Global Coalition against Daesh
Canada/Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant concludes trip to North Africa
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 12-13/2022
Iran gaining the upper hand in
nuclear deal talks/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 12/2022
Iranian Americans fear for safety from possible Iran-deal concession fallout/Karmel
Melamed/JNS/May 12/2022
The Badly Needed EastMed Pipeline Awaits Approval/Judith Bergman/Gatestone
Institute./May 12/2022
Canada’s Future Prime Minister Needs to Come Clean About Her Nazi
Collaborationist Grandfather/Jeremy Appel/Tablet/May 12/2022
Iraq's political comedy errors/Samir Adel/The Arab Weekly/May 12/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 12-13/2022
US court says man accused of scouting
received military training from Hizbullah
Associated Press/May 12/2022
A Manhattan federal court jury returned a mixed verdict Wednesday in the trial
of a New Jersey software developer who authorities say researched and
photographed U.S. landmarks for possible attacks. The jury was unable to reach a
verdict on one terrorism charge — providing material support for a terrorist
group — but found Alexei Saab, 44, had received military-type training from
Hizbullah. Saab was also found guilty of conspiring to commit marriage fraud and
making false statements. The Morristown, New Jersey, resident was exonerated on
three other charges after a two-week trial. Saab's lawyer, Marlon Kirton, said
much of the evidence came from what Saab himself told FBI investigators that was
"un-credible, crazy, unsubstantiated information," and which can't be considered
reliable. Saab spoke with the FBI in 11 sessions over several weeks prior to his
2019 arrest, but was never read his rights, Kirton said in an email after the
verdict. U.S. Attorney Damian Williams highlighted the jury's unanimous verdict
that "Saab was trained by a terrorist organization." "The evidence at trial
showed that Saab surveilled some of New York's most iconic and highly trafficked
locations," Williams said in a statement, "in order to provide critical
intelligence on how they could be most effectively attacked." Judge Paul G.
Gardephe questioned whether the terrorism count conviction will stand based on
rules about how the statute of limitations pertains to terrorism charges. He
asked lawyers on both sides to submit written arguments within weeks about the
charge, which has a potential maximum penalty of 10 years in prison. Gardephe
said he wanted to know if it was the intent of Congress that there would be no
limit to how long the government could wait to bring charges "against someone
who received military-type training from a terrorist organization."Prosecutors
were also given a week to decide whether to seek a retrial on the material
support charge, which carries a potential penalty of up to 20 years in prison.
The other two convictions for conspiring to commit marriage fraud and making
false statements each carry a potential penalty of up to five years in prison.
Prosecutors say that, according to Saab, he joined Hizbullah in 1996 and once
tried to kill a man he later understood to be a suspected Israeli spy by
pointing a weapon at the individual at close range, but the firearm jammed. They
said he surveilled potential targets for terrorism attacks from 2000 to 2005
while working by day as a technology software engineer.
Little progress in torture prevention in Lebanon, UN experts find
Naharnet/May 12/2022
The U.N. Subcommittee on Prevention of Torture (SPT) is concerned about the
prolonged pre-trial detention, overcrowding and “deplorable living conditions in
places of deprivation of liberty” that it observed during its second visit to
Lebanon, a U.N. statement said.
"Twelve years have passed but most of the recommendations from our first visit
remain to be implemented, and the efforts made by the Government had no major
impact on the situation of people deprived of their liberty,” said Nika
Kvaratskhelia, Head of the SPT Delegation to Lebanon.
The Delegation visited Lebanon from 4 to 10 May to assess the country’s
implementation of the recommendations it had made following an initial visit in
2010. Other objectives of the visit were to establish direct contact with the
recently established national monitoring body, and to examine the “treatment of
people deprived of their liberty and their safeguards against torture and
ill-treatment.”During the weeklong visit, the Delegation carried out unannounced
visits to places of detention and met government officials, members of the
national preventive mechanism, civil society representatives and U.N. agencies.
The experts expressed “serious concern” about the “persistent problems in the
administration of justice, prolonged pre-trial detention, overcrowding and
deplorable living conditions in many places of deprivation of liberty.” “The
establishment of an independent, well-resourced and properly functioning
national preventive mechanism is key to preventing torture and ill-treatment.
Lebanon still has to take strong and urgent action in this regard to comply with
the Optional Protocol,” Kvaratskhelia added. The SPT will share its report with
Lebanon, including observations and recommendations arising from this visit. The
report will remain confidential unless the State party decides to make it
public, which “the Subcommittee encourages the authorities to do,” the statement
said. The SPT Delegation comprised Nika Kvaratskhelia, Head of Delegation
(Georgia), Vasiliki Artinopoulou (Greece), Marija Definis (Croatia),
Satyabhooshun Gupt Domah (Mauritius) and Hamida Dridi (Tunisia).
Lebanon jobless rate almost triples since crisis
Agence France Presse/May 12/2022
The official unemployment rate in crisis-hit Lebanon jumped almost three-fold to
reach 29.6 percent at the start of the year, a joint survey by the U.N. and the
government said Thursday."Lebanon's unemployment rate increased from 11.4% in
2018-2019 to 29.6% in January 2022, indicating that almost one third of the
active labor force was unemployed in January 2022," it said. After years of
corrupt practices and financial mismanagement, Lebanon's economy collapsed two
years ago, stripping the national currency of 95% of its value and sending
poverty rates soaring. The rare survey released by Lebanon's Central
Administration of Statistics and the International Labor Organization, a U.N.
agency, said the informal economy accounted for around 60% of employment. It
said one of the most alarming findings was the huge growth in "underutilized
labor" from 16.2% in 2018-2019 to 50.1% in January 2022, referring to people
available to work more hours than they do. The issue of unemployment has not
featured prominently in the campaigns led by the main parties fielding
candidates in Sunday's parliamentary election.In its initial rescue deal reached
with the government last month, the International Monetary Fund urged Lebanon to
reform its bloated public sector, which employs around a quarter of the working
population.
Bukhari meets Daryan, hails Dar al-Fatwa's religious
tolerance efforts
Naharnet/May 12/2022
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari met Thursday at Dar al-Fatwa in Beirut
with Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan, the country’s top Sunni Muslim
cleric.During the meeting, Bukhari expressed “the firm solidarity of the Gulf
Cooperation Council countries with the Lebanese people, and our permanent
keenness on Lebanon’s security, stability, territorial integrity, Arab belonging
and independent political decision.”He added: “We highly laud Dar al-Fatwa’s
exerted efforts for spreading the culture of moderation and centrism, and its
clerics who are deep-rooting these principles across the country, especially in
their coexistence.”
Daryan to GCC envoys: We won’t surrender Lebanon to enemies of Arabism
Naharnet/May 12/2022
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan on Thursday warned that boycotting
elections would be “surrender,” while stressing that Lebanon should not be
“surrendered” to the “enemies of Arabism.”
“The upcoming parliamentary elections are an important juncture in Lebanon’s
history and we have given our directions and instructions to our Lebanese sons
and brothers to take part and not to boycott,” Daryan said in a meeting at Dar
al-Fatwa with the Saudi, Kuwaiti and Qatari ambassadors.
“No official has called for a boycott and voting is a religious and national
decision and duty,” the Mufti added, noting that the identity of the victors
would “define Lebanon’s course and its ties with its Arab brothers and
friends.”“We will take part in the electoral juncture along with our sons,
boycott is surrender and we don’t want to surrender Lebanon to the enemies of
Arabism,” Daryan went on to say.
Cabinet approves 1-day passport renewal for voting on May
15
Naharnet/May 12/2022
Cabinet has approved in a session Thursday to renew the expired passports for
voters in the parliamentary elections. The passports will be renewed for one
day, only to be used for voting on May 15. The renewal cost will be LBP 200,000
for each passport. During the session, President Michel Aoun asked the ministers
of justice, defense and interior to control electoral bribery during the polls
period in coordination with the military and security forces, as reports had
emerged about illegal electoral money spending. He also asked the ministers of
defense and interior "to control the security and to prevent any possible
riots.""The safety of the polling stations is crucial to facilitate the
elections process," Aoun said. On another note, Cabinet approved an inflation
aid to be added to the workers' salaries, while Prime Minister Najib Miqati
denied that there will be a further currency collapse after the Parliamentary
elections. Energy Minister Walid Fayyad said that 11 companies will be assigned
to build 11 solar plants to produce electricity. He added that he will visit
Syria on Sunday to participate in a conference on renewable energy. Fayyad said
he will discuss with his Syrian counterpart the energy transfer from Jordan to
Lebanon through Syria. Cabinet also condemned the killing of Palestinian Al
Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh who was shot dead as she covered an Israeli
army raid in the occupied West Bank.
May 15 civil servants cast their early votes across Lebanon
Naharnet /May 12/2022
The third phase of parliamentary elections, dedicated to the public employees
who will oversee Sunday's polls, kicked off Thursday across Lebanon. The
Lebanese had voted abroad in 58 countries on Friday and Sunday, with a 60
percent turnout. The vote is the first since the onset of the economic crisis in
2019 and the devastating Beirut port explosion a year later, with many accusing
the political elite of rampant corruption and mismanagement. Although many
Lebanese hope they can vote traditional parties out, experts have said this is
unlikely as opposition candidates lack unity, funds and experience.
Raja Salameh released on LBP 100 billion bail
Naharnet/May 12/2022
The brother of Lebanon's central bank governor posted bail of 100 billion
Lebanese pounds ($3.7 million) and was freed on Thursday after two months
detention, a judicial source said. The bail figure is a record in Lebanon, a
country grappling with a financial crisis seen as one of the world's worst in
modern history and widely attributed to corruption and woeful governance by the
ruling elite. Brother of central bank chief Riad Salameh, Raja Salameh was
arrested on March 17 by order of judge Ghada Aoun on charges of "money
laundering, embezzlement, illicit enrichment and smuggling large amounts of
money" out of Lebanon. A court official told AFP Thursday that "Judge Nicolas
Mansour approved Raja Salameh's release on bail set at 100 billion Lebanese
pounds and has decided to seize his 40 properties in Lebanon until the end of
proceedings. "His passport was also confiscated and he is banned from travelling,"
the court official said on condition of anonymity. Raja Salameh denies the
charges he faces. His brother Riad is widely blamed for policies that led to the
collapse of Lebanon's currency, which has lost more than 90 percent of its value
against the dollar since 2019. Ghada Aoun also issued an arrest warrant earlier
this year against Riad Salameh following a complaint by an activist group over
financial misconduct. Lebanon opened a probe into the central bank chief after a
Swiss investigation identified an alleged payment by Lebanon's central bank of
more than $330 million in brokerage fees to a company whose beneficiary was
purportedly Raja Salameh. In March, the EU's justice agency announced that
France, Germany and Luxembourg had seized properties and frozen assets worth 120
million euros ($125 million) in a major operation linked to money laundering in
Lebanon. The seizures were linked to a probe launched by French investigators
last year into the personal wealth of Riad Salameh. Central bank governor since
1993, Riad Salameh denies wrongdoing and has consistently accused Aoun of
overseeing a politically-motivated probe.
Aoun urges for resuming port blast probe quickly, says
stalemate is 'unjust'
Naharnet/May 12/2022
President Michel Aoun said Thursday, at the beginning of a regular Cabinet
session, that the port blast probe must resume quickly. "The stalemate has been
unjust to some detainees who might be innocent," he added, as he pointed out
that many issues must be addressed quickly before the government becomes a
caretaker government. Prime Minister Najib Miqati also urged for a quick
government formation, after the Parliament is elected. He wished for transparent
and free elections, urging the Lebanese to fulfil their national duty. "If we
fail to do our part by voting in the elections, then we can not go back to
criticizing (the system)," Miqati said. The Lebanese will cast their votes for a
new Parliament on May 15, after having voted abroad in 58 countries on Friday
and Sunday.
How will Lebanon vote impact the crisis-hit economy?
Agence France Presse/May 12/2022
The Lebanese parliament voted in on Sunday will have to tackle overdue reforms
required for international assistance the cash-strapped country desperately
needs. After Lebanon struck a conditional deal with the International Monetary
Fund for a $3 billion aid package, AFP looks at the challenges that await
incoming lawmakers in a country where there is little consensus on a roadmap for
financial recovery.
How bad is the crisis? -
Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered an unprecedented economic decline caused by
decades of mismanagement and corruption. The World Bank last year said Lebanon
was likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th
century. The state's bankruptcy has hampered imports of basic items including
food, medicine and fuel. Starved of hydrocarbons, the country's power stations
have scaled down their operations to a near minimum. Power cuts can last up to
23 hours a day, forcing residents to rely on expensive private generators to
keep the lights on.
The Lebanese pound, pegged at 1,507 to the dollar since 1997, has lost more than
90 percent of its value on the black market. More than 80 percent of people have
fallen into poverty, according to the United Nations. The monthly minimum wage,
once worth $450, is now roughly equal to $25, and inflation has reached triple
digits. The situation is made worse by informal banking controls that have
gradually tightened since they were first put in place in 2019. Depositors are
denied access to foreign currency savings and forced to withdraw their money in
Lebanese pounds at an exchange rate set by the central bank that is far below
the market price.
- Why is the IMF deal crucial? -
The IMF last month announced the conditional agreement for aid to help Lebanon
emerge from financial ruin. However, final IMF approval for the 46-month
financing program is contingent on timely implementation of critical reforms
long demanded by Lebanon's international donors, the global lender said. The
overdue reforms have been stymied by political divisions leading to deadlock in
both parliament and government while the country sinks deeper into poverty.
"Lebanon has to show commitment and establish credibility in regards to reforms
before the international community can commit to any financial support," Deputy
Prime Minister Saade Chami told AFP. "The ball is in our court."Billionaire
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has said there is "no choice" for Lebanon other than
an IMF deal. "Carrying out the required actions will bring solutions faster" for
Lebanon, Miqati said, relaying a message from IMF representatives.
What must happen next?
Chami, who heads Lebanon's delegation in IMF talks, said that the new parliament
will have to tackle four urgent tasks. It will have to set a draft 2022 annual
budget, which is already overdue, and pass a capital control law that formalizes
restrictions imposed by banks on deposits, Chami said.
The legislature will also have to approve two amendments to meet IMF demands, he
said. One would affect banking secrecy laws that have hampered attempts to
conduct financial audits of the central bank and other institutions.
Parliament will also have to amend its bank restructuring law, according to
Chami, to reorganize a bloated financial sector that has lost the confidence of
depositors and investors. "Failure to do that will have negative implications on
the IMF deal and the economic situation," Chami said. Lebanon, which defaulted
on its debt in March 2020, estimates the total financial losses for the state,
central bank and commercial banks at $69 billion. This number was the basis for
the IMF negotiations. Setting up a legal framework to reform and restructure the
banking sector will be among the new parliament's major tests, given the shared
interests between Lebanon's political and financial elite, said Sami Nader,
director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs.
Mawlawi urges Sunnis to pull Lebanon out of 'new type of
war'
Naharnet/May 12/2022
Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi has called on Lebanon’s Sunni community to turn
out heavily in the May 15 parliamentary elections, warning that “reluctance from
practicing the right of voting would deepen the country’s crises.” “You actively
took part in founding the country and enshrining its National Pact. You did not
take part in civil war and you did not take up arms. Today you are invited to
participate heavily in pulling Lebanon out of a war that is of another nature –
the war of poverty, deprivation and employment, which has entered into the homes
of all Lebanese,” Mawlawi said in an interview with the Saudi al-Bilad
newspaper. “You are asked to be loyal to your Arabism and keen on the legitimacy
of your state,” the minister added. Ex-PM Saad Hariri, the leader of the biggest
Sunni party in the country, had recently announced that his al-Mustaqbal
Movement would not take part in the elections.
Despite fires, floods and power cuts, Lebanon polls shun
climate issues
The Arab Weekly/May 12/2022
Lebanon has seen raging forest fires, damaging floods, and repeated power cuts
that are bringing business to its knees. Yet climate change issues are largely
absent from the political agenda ahead of parliamentary elections this weekend.
With the economy in free fall and rampant corruption enraging the public,
prospective MPs said the climate is not seen as a key concern by voters facing
crises on all sides. “Climate change is an important and crucial topic, but
given the overwhelming issues in Lebanon, this issue can wait,” Najat Saliba, a
candidate for the Taqaddom opposition party, said in a telephone interview. None
of the major political parties have outlined a climate policy agenda ahead of
the May 15 poll. The heavily armed, Iran-backed Shia Islamist group Hezbollah
and its allies collectively won 71 of 128 seats when Lebanon last voted in 2018.
The upcoming election is the first since the start of the economic crisis in
October 2019, which sparked widespread protests across the country. Almost
three-quarters of the population has been forced into poverty, medicine and fuel
are in short supply, and electricity is only available for a few hours a day, in
what the World Bank said was one of the world’s worst financial crises in 150
years. Environmental activists said expanding renewable energy such as solar
power, and other green policies could help provide long-term solutions to some
of the nation’s key woes, and future-proof against further political and
economic shocks. “Renewable energy deployment has a number of advantages,
including the creation of jobs, the decrease of local air pollution, and the
lessening of our reliance on fossil fuels,” said Carol Ayat, an energy finance
expert at the American University of Beirut (AUB). “This would help protect our
economy from external energy shocks while also reducing our (export trade)
deficit by lowering our fossil fuel imports, which are a major contributor to
our current plight.”
Surgery cancelled
Lebanon’s descent into financial ruin began in 2019, the result of a poorly
managed spending binge that pushed up debt, political paralysis as rival
factions squabbled and foreign lenders’ reluctance to bail the country out
unless it reformed. The country has not had a 24-hour power supply for decades.
But the latest economic crisis has made the situation much worse, with some
areas now having access to grid electricity for just two hours a day, or not at
all. Much of Lebanon is powered by private diesel generators, many of which are
run by companies, while foreign currency shortages have hampered imports of fuel
oil.
According to Lebanon-based policy and research organisation Triangle Research,
renewable energy production accounted for less than 3% of total electricity
generation in 2018. Ayat, a senior fellow at the AUB’s Issam Fares Institute for
Public Policy and International Affairs, said the government – whoever leads it
– should optimise renewable energy generation. “Any energy reform strategy
should seek to provide all Lebanese with the cheapest, cleanest and most
long-lasting electrical supply feasible,” she said. The patchy power supply has
sent ripple effects across society, from hospitals forced to put off life-saving
surgery and schools having to close their doors, to bakeries unable to produce
bread, a cheap staple food for struggling families. At one Beirut hospital,
Karim Mdallal said he had shattered both his arms and legs after falling down
the stairs in an accident, but had yet to be operated on. “My surgery was set
for today, but it was cancelled due to power outages. I’ll have to wait a few
more days,” he said. While energy supply may be among Lebanon’s most pressing
environmental issues, it is far from the only one. Lebanon has for years
struggled with waste disposal: “garbage mountains” dotted around the country
have become a symbol of the government’s inability to provide basic services.
The country is also facing climate-linked disasters, from heavy coastal floods
that destroyed crops last year to forest fires that razed homes, which Ayat said
required policies to reduce the risks and keep people safe.
Politician ‘unmoved’
Even as environmental campaigners point to the need for action to promote clean
energy and climate resilience, they hold out little hope. “Climate change has
become more urgent in recent years, but politicians in Lebanon have, by and
large, remained unmoved,” said Julien Jreissati, Middle East and North Africa
programme director for environmental organisation Greenpeace. Voters are also
largely apathetic, said Jreissati. National politics have been dominated by a
handful of parties for the past 30 years. Some political experts have suggested
Sunni figurehead Saad al-Hariri’s recent withdrawal from politics is likely to
cement Hezbollah’s hold on power. But this weekend’s elections will include
voices pushing for change, from a raft of independent candidates. Ziad Abi
Chaker, an environmental and industrial engineer who is running as an
independent in Beirut, is one of the few candidates to have mentioned the
climate crisis. Abi Chaker, whose key policies include pushing for the
introduction of a zero-waste recycling plant in Beirut’s suburbs, acknowledged
gradual reforms would not be enough – but said any step forward would be
progress. “Incremental change is better than no change or going backwards,
especially in Lebanon,” he said.“(That is) what I aim to push for if I get
elected.”
Sunni vote will determine the outcome of Lebanese
election
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/May 12/2022
The Lebanese will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament. This
election will decide the fate of Lebanon. Though it is unlikely we will see an
uprooting of the current corrupt political elite, the vote will decide on
Hezbollah’s control over the country.
The general mood is different to the aftermath of the Doha Agreement in 2008,
when the trend was to compromise. Today, people are keen to confront Hezbollah.
Following the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the
pro-Hariri, anti-Syria and anti-Hezbollah camp won the majority. The head of
this group, Saad Hariri, Rafik’s son, compromised and reinstated Nabih Berri,
the head of the Amal Movement and a close ally of Hezbollah, as the speaker of
the parliament. He basically gave Hezbollah control over parliament despite the
fact it did not have the majority. This will not be the case today.
If the majority changes today, the person leading it will be the head of the
Lebanese Forces, Samir Geagea. He has a more radical attitude toward Hezbollah
than Hariri and the regional attitude has also changed. The Gulf countries are
categorically opposed to the group.
The elections are crucial for Hezbollah. If it loses its majority, then its
weapons — which are one of Iran’s main regional tools — will be endangered.
Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech this week that, whatever
happens, the group will not relinquish its arms. Despite this show of
confidence, Hezbollah is in a precarious situation. Its Christian ally, the Free
Patriotic Movement, is losing popularity among its base. The average Christian
is appalled by what they see as Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil’s complete
subordination to Hezbollah.
The Lebanese Forces are benefiting from this shift. Geagea is perceived by the
Christian street as the Christian leader who stands firm against Hezbollah’s
schemes to undermine the country’s sovereignty. A shift in the Christian
majority is important as it would remove the group’s cover for Hezbollah. The
latter would no longer be able to present itself as a “national” movement
endorsed by the majority of Christians, meaning its legitimacy would be
undermined.
What would be even more disastrous for Hezbollah would be for it to lose its
majority. And it would not take much for that to happen. Currently, all it would
take is for the opposition to flip seven seats, as the difference between the
pro-Hezbollah alliance and its rivals is 12 members of parliament.
While there might be some exceptions, Hezbollah and Amal have a grip on the
Shiite community. It is unlikely that the average Shiite will vote for new
representation. And Hezbollah can make up for the loss of the Christian vote if
the Sunnis do not vote or if their vote is diluted. If the Sunnis do not vote,
such as in Beirut’s second district, which is the stronghold of the Sunni
community, Hezbollah’s list will get more seats. It is simple mathematics that,
if the Sunnis do not vote, then the total vote will diminish and the
pro-Hezbollah list will win more seats.
But Hariri, who has left politics at least for the moment, has been encouraging
people not to vote. His argument is that the vote will give Hezbollah
legitimacy. Though he did not issue an official statement calling for a boycott,
his associates are spreading the message. His deputy, Rola Al-Tabash, posted on
Twitter: “Tarik Al-Jadida (a neighborhood in Beirut) is boycotting elections.”
Hariri is looking for a role, even if it is a negative one. According to his
logic, if Hezbollah wins, then he can go back to his one-time allies and
convince them that he is the one and only Sunni leader. But the issue is not as
simple as that and people are not that naive. The Sunnis are generally in favor
of voting and we saw this trend in the expatriate votes. The Saudi ambassador
has intensified his activities in Lebanon recently in order to encourage people
to vote, while the Sunni mufti made a speech where he emphasized the importance
of voting to ensure the changes the country deserves. In the Friday sermons
prior to the election, imams will encourage people to vote.
Hariri has been criticized for his selfish behavior, with his attitude described
as being that of “me or nobody.” However, he is playing with fire because a high
turnout of Sunni voters on Sunday would demonstrate his irrelevance.
If the president, prime minister and speaker are not on Hezbollah’s side, that
would be disastrous for the group’s future.
Hezbollah is banking on the fact that the Sunnis are leaderless and demoralized.
A shattered Sunni vote would certainly mean a pro-Hezbollah majority, giving it
renewed legitimacy in the eyes of the international community and more leverage
for Iran, which it definitely needs as the nuclear deal negotiations have
stalled.
A new majority that is anti-Hezbollah would mean a new president who is
anti-Hezbollah, a new prime minister who is anti-Hezbollah and perhaps, contrary
to the trend seen for the past 30 years, a new speaker who is not Berri and who
is anti-Hezbollah. If the Shiite seat in Jubail, a Christian area, is won by the
Lebanese Forces, there could be an anti-Hezbollah Shiite deputy who could serve
as speaker of the parliament. If the president, prime minister and speaker are
not on Hezbollah’s side, that would be disastrous for the group’s future. This
is why Sunday is crucial for the future of Lebanon.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on May 12-13/2022
Muslim Mobs Burns Female Christian
Student Alive in Nigeria
Raymond Ibrahim/May 12/2022
Earlier today, a Muslim mob beat and burned to death a female Christian student
in Nigeria. She was apparently accused of “blasphemy.” A brief video clip shows
a massive fire against a wall, where the hapless woman was likely driven to and
cornered in, and Muslims jumping around it and crying “Allahu Akbar.” One man,
dressed in traditional Muslim attire, triumphantly jabbers while waving around a
box of matches—perhaps the same used to ignite the “blasphemer.”The Christian
girl had apparently challenged a group of Muslim students spreading Islamic
propaganda, thereby rousing their ire in a nation where Christians are being
purged in a genocide (and where just two days ago 29 other Christians were
hacked to death by Muslims). The incident occurred on the grounds of the Shehu
Shagari College of Education. It published a statement today saying that,
“Following today’s early morning Students rampage in the College,” the college
would be closed “indefinitely” and called on students to “vacate” the premises
“immediately.”This is certainly not the first time a Muslim mob burns Christians
alive on the charge that they had someone “blasphemed” against Islam. Most
notably, in 2015, a Muslim “mob accused of burning alive a Christian couple in
an industrial kiln in Pakistan allegedly wrapped a pregnant mother in cotton so
she would catch fire more easily, according to family members who witnessed the
attack,” reported NBC News. As it is still too early to get any details on
today’s burning, for an idea of the rage that can animate easily offended
Muslims, here are the details of the burning of that Christian couple in
Pakistan:
Sajjad Maseeh, 27, and his wife Shama Bibi, 24, were set upon by at least 1,200
people after rumors circulated that they had burned verses from the Quran,
family spokesman Javed Maseeh told NBC News via telephone late Thursday. Their
legs were also broken so they couldn’t run away. “They picked them up by their
arms and legs and held them over the brick furnace until their clothes caught
fire,” he said. “And then they threw them inside the furnace.”Bibi, a mother of
four who was four months pregnant, was wearing an outfit that initially didn’t
burn, according to Javed Maseeh. The mob removed her from over the kiln and
wrapped her up in cotton to make sure the garments would be set alight.
Meanwhile, in Joe Biden’s world, it’s Muslims who are being persecuted, due to
“Islamophobia” and what not.
https://www.raymondibrahim.com/2022/05/12/muslim-mobs-burns-female-christian-student-alive-in-nigeria/
IRGC-Controlled Iranian Airline Makes Unexplained
Flights to Russia Amidst Invasion of Ukraine
Emanuele Ottolenghi/Policy Brief./May 12/2022
The U.S.-sanctioned Iranian airline Qeshm Fars Air has flown to Moscow at least
seven times since mid-April after having made that trip only twice last year,
according to the flight tracking service FlightRadar24. The airline’s sudden
uptick in cargo flights to Moscow may reflect Iranian efforts to support
Russia’s war in Ukraine. The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Qeshm Fars Air
in 2019 for being operated by the already sanctioned Iranian carrier Mahan Air
and for carrying weapons and fighters to Syria on behalf of Iran’s Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is also under U.S. sanctions. Qeshm Fars
Air continues to fly the Tehran-Damascus route on behalf of the IRGC, helping
the Guard sustain its military presence in Syria and supply advanced weaponry to
Iran’s proxy terrorist group in Lebanon, Hezbollah. Qeshm Fars Air’s illicit
activity likely goes beyond Syria. It has also regularly traveled to Venezuela
in the past two years, likely ferrying Iranian weapons and helping Tehran and
Caracas evade U.S. sanctions. During the conflict between Ethiopia’s central
government and Tigray rebels, Qeshm Fars Air aircraft flew to Addis Ababa at
least seven times from June to December 2021, alongside Pouya Air, another
U.S.-sanctioned Iranian airline. In the past two months, Qeshm Fars Air cargo
has also regularly landed in New Delhi, Macau, Myanmar, and Tajikistan. Reports
suggest that in at least some of these instances, Iran is using the airline
either to transport military equipment or to help partners evade sanctions.
Qeshm Fars Air’s flights to Moscow may fit into this pattern. The first recorded
flight occurred on April 15, three days after The Guardian reported that Iran
had transferred rocket-propelled grenades, anti-tank missiles, multiple-launch
rocket systems, and surface-to-air missile systems to Russia by ship through the
Caspian Sea. The Qeshm Fars Air cargo aircraft in question (registration:
EP-FAA), can carry up to 250 tons of cargo, depending on the flight’s distance.
Supplies of weapon systems and parts could help Russia replace some of its
extensive battlefield losses as Western sanctions hamper Russia’s ability to
produce weapons domestically. Qeshm Fars Air could also be helping transport
Syrian mercenaries to Russia, especially considering that the airline’s flights
to and from Damascus are ongoing. The Pentagon confirmed in early March that
Moscow has sought to recruit fighters from Syria to help compensate for Russia’s
shortage of manpower in Ukraine. Alternatively, Iran could be assisting Russia
in its reported transfer of forces and equipment currently deployed in Syria for
use in Ukraine. While it remains unclear what exactly Qeshm Fars Air is ferrying
to Russia, the uptick in flights raises concerns that the IRGC may be assisting
Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, where the Russian military has committed mass
atrocities. If proven, this would offer an additional reason not to remove the
IRGC from the U.S. list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The U.S intelligence
community should closely watch the increased freighter air traffic between
Tehran and Moscow to determine the exact nature of the cargo transported.
*Emanuele Ottolenghi is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on
Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Emanuele, the Iran
Program, and CEFP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Emanuele on Twitter @eottolenghi.
Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research organization focused on national security and
foreign policy.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/05/11/irgc-controlled-iranian-airline-flights-russia/
Qatari emir in Iran for talks amid tensions over nuke
deal
Associated Press/May 12/2022
Qatar's emir arrived in Iran on Thursday for talks with the Iranian president,
state media reported, as efforts to save Tehran's tattered nuclear deal with
world powers hit a deadlock. State TV showed the arrival of Emir Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad Al Thani at Tehran's Mehrabad Airport, where he was received by Iran's
senior vice president Mohammad Mokhber. The report said said bilateral, regional
and international issues are on agenda during the visit. The emir will meet
President Ebrahim Raisi later in the day. The official visit comes as the
European Union's coordinator trying to revive the nuclear deal is still in Iran.
Talks in Vienna have been stalled for months, apparently over an Iranian demand
that Washington lift a terrorism designation on Iran's powerful paramilitary
Revolutionary Guard. Enrique Mora met with the Iranian nuclear negotiator on
Wednesday to make a diplomatic push, just after Iranian intelligence services
announced they had detained two unidentified European citizens. Talks continued
on Thursday, Iranian media reported without giving details. Qatar hosted Iran's
President Ebrahim Raisi in February. Despite its small size, the tiny Gulf Arab
sheikdom plays a strategic role as a quiet mediator and negotiator in a region
rife with sectarian and political conflict. Qatar's ties with both Washington
and Tehran allow Doha to relay viewpoints between the two.
Another Russian naval ship is on fire in the Black Sea:
Ukraine
Tuqa Khalid, Al Arabiya English/12 May ,2022
A Russian naval support ship, the “Vsevolod Bobrov”, is being towed from the
area of Snake Island after it caught fire, spokesperson for the Odessa regional
military administration said on Thursday. “As a result of the actions of our
military sailors, the logistics ship Vsevolod Bobrov, one of the newest in the
Russian fleet, [caught fire]. They say that it is [being towed] to Sevastopol,”
the Ukrinform news agency quoted spokesperson Serhii Bratchuk as saying. The
Ukrainian statement comes almost a month after Russia’s Moskva warship was hit
by two Ukrainian missiles before it sank in the Black Sea. It was a huge victory
for Kyiv when Moscow confirmed the Ukrainian account that the Moskva was struck
by two Neptune missiles which led to the fire onboard the ship and it eventually
sinking. The sinking of the Russian warship in mid-April marked a milestone for
the Ukrainian’s resistance ever since Russia invaded in February 24.
Ukraine’s Zelenskyy says he’s ready to talk with Putin
with no ultimatum
The Associated Press/12 May ,2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that he’s ready to talk with
Russian President Vladimir Putin and that “we must find an agreement,’’ but with
no ultimatum as a condition. Zelenskyy also told Italian RAI state TV in an
interview scheduled to be broadcast on Thursday night that Ukraine will never
recognize Crimea as part of Russia, which annexed that part of southern Ukraine
in 2014.“Crimea has always had its autonomy, it has its parliament, but on the
inside of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said, in excerpts of the interview that RAI
released earlier on Thursday. The interviewer asked the Ukrainian leader about a
comment by French President Emmanuel Macron cautioning against any humiliation
of Putin. “We want the Russian army to leave our land, we aren’t on Russian
soil,’’ Zelenskyy replied. “We won’t save Putin’s face by paying with our
territory. That would be unjust.”In another comment, Zelenskyy sounded a
forward-looking note. “We have to think of the future of Russia. I, as president
of Ukraine, say these are our neighbors. There will be other presidents, other
presidents and other generations” of Russia, Zelenskyy said.
Finland poised for NATO membership as Ukraine war crimps
Russian gas
Associated Press/May 12/2022
Finland on Thursday took a step towards fast-track membership of NATO,
triggering a warning from the Kremlin, as the war in Ukraine throttled supplies
of Russian gas to Europe. "Finland must apply for NATO membership without
delay," President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced in a
statement in Helsinki. "NATO membership would strengthen Finland's security,"
they said. "As a member of NATO, Finland would strengthen the entire defense
alliance."But Russia warned Finnish membership of NATO would "definitely" be
seen as a threat. "The expansion of NATO and the approach of the alliance to our
borders does not make the world and our continent more stable and secure,"
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. In launching the invasion of Ukraine, Russian
President Vladimir Putin cited in part what he called the threat to Russia from
NATO, which expanded eastwards after the Cold War. Finland's embrace of the
alliance was ruled out as recently as January, for the country has been a
declared neutral in East-West crises for decades. But the February 24 invasion
shocked the Nordic country. It shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile) border with
Russia and its past is studded with conflict with its giant neighbor. The
Atlantic alliance has already declared it will warmly embrace two countries with
rich pockets and advanced militaries. Finland's entry will be "smooth and
swift," NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg promised on Thursday. A special committee
will announce Finland's formal decision on a membership bid on Sunday. Sweden,
another neutral state, is widely expected to follow its neighbor.
- Russian gas -
Fears grew meanwhile of the broader economic impact from the crisis. Russian
energy giant Gazprom said that gas transiting to Ukraine to Europe dropped by a
third after Kyiv suspended supplies through a key route. Germany said Wednesday
that it saw a 25 percent drop in supplies of Russian gas flowing through
Ukraine. Ukraine is a major supply route for Russian gas to Europe and the two
sides have kept flows going despite the conflict. The European Union's heavy
reliance on Russian gas has made it reluctant to add these imports to a list of
economic sanctions that have started to take a toll on Moscow's foreign exchange
reserves. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in a rhetorical
blast from Tokyo, said Russia "is today the most direct threat to the world
order with the barbaric war against Ukraine".
- Shelling in east -
Moscow has focused on eastern and southern Ukraine since it failed to take Kyiv
in the first weeks of its campaign. Ukraine's presidency said shelling continued
throughout the Lugansk region -- part of the eastern Donbas where Ukrainian
forces are mounting a fierce defense against Russian forces and Kremlin-backed
separatists. Russian troops are trying to take complete control of Rubizhne,
block a key highway between Lysychansk and Bakhmut highway and seize
Severodonetsk, the office said. In the northeastern region of Chernigiv three
people were killed and 12 others wounded on Thursday in a strike on the town of
Novgorod-Siversky, an emergency services spokesman said. Across Ukraine, lives
have been turned upside down, forcing millions to make anguished choices of how
to respond. Zhanna Protsenko, a social worker in the frontline town of Orikhiv,
spoke to AFP as she was about to head off on her bicycle to visit people who
refused -- or were unable -- to evacuate. "How can I leave them here?" the
56-year-old asked, standing near a hospital that was hit by a strike in the past
week. "We work. We have no time to hide," she said as contractors repaired rows
of the hospital's blown-out windows and an oil drum-sized hole blasted in its
brick façade.
War crimes trial
The Russian invasion has sparked an exodus of nearly six million civilians, many
of whom bear accounts of torture, sexual violence and indiscriminate
destruction. The Ukrainian prosecutor general on Wednesday said it would launch
the first trial for war crimes. Vadim Shishimarin, a 21-year-old Russian
soldier, is accused of killing an unarmed 62-year-old civilian as he fled with
four other soldiers in a stolen car. He faces possible life imprisonment if
found guilty.The prosecutor's office says it has said it has received reports of
more than 10,000 alleged war crimes, with 622 suspects identified.The UN Human
Rights Council is due to hold a special session on Ukraine on Thursday.
Appeal to Musk
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has framed his nation's resistance to the
Russian invasion as a "war against tyranny", but the fierce fightback has
carried a heavy cost. In a rare release of battle casualty figures, Ukraine's
National Guard said Wednesday that 561 of its members have been killed and
nearly 1,700 wounded since the invasion began. Neither the defense ministry in
Kyiv nor its counterpart in Moscow has provided official death counts, but in
mid-April, Zelensky said between 2,500 and 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been
killed. A Ukrainian commander in the port city of Mariupol, where besieged
troops are holding out at steelworks, appealed directly to Elon Musk for help.
Serhiy Volyna, commander of the 36th Separate Marine Brigade, said he created a
Twitter account for the sole purpose of reaching out to Musk. "People say you
come from another planet to teach people to believe in the impossible," Volyna
tweeted at Musk. "Our planets are next to each other, as I live where it is
nearly impossible to survive. Help us get out of Azovstal to a mediating
country. If not you, then who?"
Russia warns of response to Finland NATO entry
Agence France Presse/May 12/2022
Russia warned Thursday it would have to take "military-technical" steps in
response to neighboring Finland joining NATO, after leaders in Helsinki backed
entering the US-led alliance. "The expansion of NATO and the approach of
the alliance to our borders does not make the world and our continent more
stable and secure," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. When
asked whether Finland's membership would be a threat, Peskov answered:
"definitely". "Everything will depend on how this process takes place, how far
the military infrastructure will move towards our borders," he said. Russia's
foreign ministry said Moscow would be "forced to take reciprocal steps,
military-technical and other, to address the resulting threats to its national
security". It accused NATO of seeking to create "another flank for the military
threat to our country". "Helsinki should be aware of its responsibility and the
consequences of such a move," the foreign ministry said. Earlier on Thursday,
Finland's president and prime minister said they were in favor of joining NATO
and a formal decision would be taken this weekend. Finland's political and
public opinion swung dramatically in favor of membership after Russia sent
troops into Ukraine on February 24. Finland shares a 1,300-kilometre (800-mile)
border with Russia and has been militarily non-aligned for decades.
US lifts sanctions on foreign investments in northern
Syria, not Assad regime
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/12 May ,2022
The US officially lifted sanctions on foreign investments in northern Syria on
Thursday, but American officials said there were no plans to remove sanctions on
the Assad regime’s government. The Treasury Department issued an authorization
on its website, which now allows “activities” in 12 different economic sectors
in parts of northeast and northwest Syria without the fear of US sanctions.
Thursday’s announcement came after Under Secretary for Political Affairs
Victoria Nuland said that the move was made in an effort to help the economic
situation in areas liberated by US-backed forces from ISIS. Activities will now
be permitted in the following fields: agriculture, information and
telecommunications, power grid infrastructure, construction, finance, clean
energy, transportation and warehousing, water and waste management, health
services, education, manufacturing and trade.But business with the Syrian
government will still be illegal and subject to US sanctions, the Treasury
Department said. “The importation into the United States of petroleum or
petroleum products of Syrian origin” will still be prohibited. Washington has
issued crushing economic sanctions against the Syrian government as a result of
its war crimes and mass atrocities carried out against civilians and protesters
since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. And despite several Arab countries
looking to normalize ties with the Assad regime, the US has warned against doing
so and has said sanctions could hit any business deals with the Syrian
government.
Palestinians. Most of the international community views
the settlements as illegal.
Associated Press/May 12/2022
Hagit Ofran, an expert on the settlements at the anti-settlement watchdog Peace
Now, says a military planning body approved 4,427 housing units at a meeting
that she attended. Israeli officials did not immediately respond to requests for
comment. The approval came a day after Israel's military demolished at least 18
buildings and structures in the occupied West Bank following a Supreme Court
decision that would force around 1,000 Palestinians out of an area Israel had
designated a firing zone. B'Tselem, another Israeli rights group, said in a
statement that Border Police and soldiers leveled a total of 18 structures,
including 12 residential buildings, in villages in the hills south of the West
Bank city of Hebron on Wednesday.Last week, Israel's Supreme Court upheld an
expulsion order that would force out residents of a cluster of Bedouin
communities in Masafer Yatta, where they say they have been living for decades.
The military declared the area a firing zone in the early 1980s. Neither COGAT,
the Israeli military body in charge of civilian affairs in the occupied
territory, nor the army responded to requests for comment about the demolitions.
Israel captured the West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war and has built more than
130 settlements across the territory that are home to nearly 500,000 settlers.
Nearly 3 million Palestinians live in the West Bank under Israeli military rule.
The Palestinians seek the West Bank to form the main part of a future state.
They view the expansion of settlements as a major obstacle to any future peace
deal because they reduce and divide up the land on which such a state would be
established. Most of the international community views the settlements as
illegal.
Rights group says Israel approves 4,427 new settler homes
Associated Press/May 12/2022
Israel on Thursday approved the construction of more than 4,000 settler homes in
the occupied West Bank, an Israeli rights group said. It's the biggest
advancement of settlement projects since the Biden administration took office.
The U.S. opposes settlement construction and views it as an obstacle to any
eventual peace deal with the Palestinians. Most of the international community
views the settlements as illegal. Hagit Ofran, an expert on the settlements at
the anti-settlement watchdog Peace Now, says a military planning body approved
4,427 housing units at a meeting that she attended.
Israeli officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The
approval came a day after Israel's military demolished at least 18 buildings and
structures in the occupied West Bank following a Supreme Court decision that
would force around 1,000 Palestinians out of an area Israel had designated a
firing zone. B'Tselem, another Israeli rights group, said in a statement that
Border Police and soldiers leveled a total of 18 structures, including 12
residential buildings, in villages in the hills south of the West Bank city of
Hebron on Wednesday. Last week, Israel's Supreme Court upheld an expulsion order
that would force out residents of a cluster of Bedouin communities in Masafer
Yatta, where they say they have been living for decades. The military declared
the area a firing zone in the early 1980s. Neither COGAT, the Israeli military
body in charge of civilian affairs in the occupied territory, nor the army
responded to requests for comment about the demolitions. Israel captured the
West Bank in the 1967 Mideast war and has built more than 130 settlements across
the territory that are home to nearly 500,000 settlers. Nearly 3 million
Palestinians live in the West Bank under Israeli military rule. The Palestinians
seek the West Bank to form the main part of a future state. They view the
expansion of settlements as a major obstacle to any future peace deal because
they reduce and divide up the land on which such a state would be established.
Most of the international community views the settlements as illegal.
After over a month, Kuwaiti government’s resignation
accepted
The Arab Weekly/May 12/2022
Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Meshal al-Ahmad al-Sabah finally accepted the
resignation submitted by the government more than a month ago, issuing a decree
on Tuesday asking it to stay on in a caretaker role, state news agency KUNA
reported. A lengthy political feud had hindered fiscal reform in the OPEC oil
producer and led to the government tendering its resignation on April 5 ahead of
a parliamentary non-cooperation motion against the prime minister. The
government’s quitting later put parliament on hold, with Speaker Marzouq al-Ghanim
saying that the resignation had thrown the legislature into abeyance. He also
said the government had refused to attend parliament until the matter is
resolved. KUNA said the Emiri decree was issued by Sheikh Meshal, who took over
most of the octogenarian emir’s duties late last year. It gave no timeline for
when a new government would be formed. Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid, a
member of the ruling al-Sabah family and premier since 2019, has faced a
combative legislature as the head of successive cabinets, with opposition MPs
bent on questioning him over issues including perceived corruption. Kuwait has
given its elected assembly more influence than similar bodies in the region,
including the power to pass and block laws, question ministers and submit
no-confidence motions against senior government officials. Following the news of
the crown prince’s decision to accept the government’s resignation, state news
agency KUNA reported Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah travelled to
Italy on Thursday on a “private visit.” The news agency did not provide further
details.
Iraq strikes deal with Iran to secure summer gas imports
Agence France Presse/May 12/2022
Iraq has agreed to pay $1.6 billion in debt to Iran by June 1 to secure a steady
gas supply for power generation through the summer, its electricity minister
said. Chronic underinvestment through decades of war and sanctions has left Iraq
dependent on imports from its eastern neighbor for a third of its gas needs. But
U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and gas have complicated Iraq's payments for the
imports, leaving it in heavy arrears and prompting Iran to respond by
periodically switching off the taps. The result has been extended power cuts
across much of the country, particularly during the summer, when temperatures
routinely reach 52 degrees Celsius (126 degrees Fahrenheit) sending demand for
refrigeration and air conditioning soaring. "We have reached agreement on supply
in sufficient quantities. We have agreed on 50 million cubic meters (per day)
during the four summer months," acting electricity minister Adel Karim told
state television late Wednesday. During winter, Iraq will import between 10
million and 20 million cubic meters per day of Iranian gas, he added. "They
agreed to supply us with the gas but they had conditions. They are demanding...
$1.6 billion," Karim said, adding the payment will have to be made "by the start
of June". The figure represents Iraq's arrears for 2020, which have yet to be
settled because of the arcane payment method Iraq is obliged to use to comply
with an exemption from US sanctions on Iran. Iraq is not allowed to simply hand
over cash to Iran. Payments must be used to fund imports of food and medicines.
Karim said gas imports from Iran are currently flowing at 38 million cubic
meters per day. Alternatives under consideration include a connection to the
Turkish national grid to supply electricity to Iraq's second city Mosul and a
link to Kuwait and Saudi Arabia to help power the south. Karim said imports of
liquefied natural gas were also expected to begin from Qatar in the "next few
months" but underlined that no alternative source was likely to replace Iranian
gas soon. "In my humble opinion we will depend on Iranian gas for five or 10
years to come," he said.
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the situation of
women and girls in Afghanistan
May 12, 2022 – Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs
Canada
The G7 Foreign Ministers today issued the following statement on the rights of
Afghan women and girls:
“We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of
the European Union, express our strongest opposition and deplore the increasing
restrictions imposed on the rights and freedoms of women and girls in
Afghanistan by the Taliban.
“We stand with the Afghan people in their demand for equal rights in line with
the Taliban’s commitments to all Afghans and Afghanistan’s obligations under
international law. We condemn the imposition of increasingly restrictive
measures that severely limit half the population’s ability to fully, equally and
meaningfully participate in society, including the recent announcement on
women’s appearance in public along with new punishments for family members to
enforce compliance with these restrictions.
“With these moves, the Taliban are further isolating themselves from the
international community. Echoing our joint statement, together with Norway, from
March 24, we call on the Taliban to urgently take steps to lift restrictions on
women and girls, respect their human rights, and meet the expectations of
Afghans and the world to permit their full, equal and meaningful participation
in work, education and public life, as well as freedom of movement and freedom
of speech, which is crucial for long-term peace, stability and development of
the country.”
Canada/Joint Statement by Ministers of the Global Coalition against Daesh
May 12 2022 – Marrakesh, Morocco - Global Affairs Canada
The Ministers of the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS reconvened in
Marrakesh, Morocco, at the invitation of Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser
Bourita and U.S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken.
The Ministers welcomed the first Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS meeting
to be convened in Africa and reaffirmed their shared determination to continue
the fight against Daesh/ISIS through both military and civilian-led efforts
contributing to the enduring defeat of the terrorist group. Together the
Ministers emphasized the protection of civilians as a priority and affirmed that
international law, including international humanitarian law and international
human rights law, as well as relevant UN Security Council resolutions, must be
upheld under all circumstances.
The Ministers affirmed that ensuring the enduring defeat of Daesh/ISIS in Iraq
and Syria remains the number one priority for the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition.
They stressed that despite significant setbacks suffered by Daesh/ISIS’
leadership over the recent past, the terrorist group continues to conduct
attacks in Iraq and Syria and represents an ongoing threat, as shown by the
large-scale attack against the Al-Sinaa detention facility in northeast Syria in
January 2022.
The Ministers reiterated the importance of allocating adequate resources to
sustain Coalition and legitimate partner forces’ efforts. The Coalition will
continue to provide support to the Iraqi Security Forces, including the
Peshmerga, and local partners in Syria. Civilian-led efforts, including
prevention, stabilization, countering terrorist financing, counter narratives
and foreign terrorist fighter prosecution, rehabilitation and reintegration are
increasingly necessary to achieve the lasting defeat of Daesh/ISIS. The
Ministers emphasized the need to enhance civilian-led counterterrorism
capabilities in Iraq. They also stressed the need to ensure sustainable
long-term solutions for Daesh/ISIS fighters and family members in northeast
Syria, including appropriate legal procedures to ensure those guilty of crimes
are held accountable.
In Syria, the Coalition stands with the Syrian people in support of a lasting
political settlement in line with UN Security Council Resolution 2254. The
Coalition continues to support inclusive local recovery and stabilization in
areas liberated from Daesh/ISIS and reconciliation and reintegration efforts to
foster conditions conducive to a Syria-wide political resolution to the conflict
under the parameters of UN Security Council Resolution 2254.
The Ministers also recognized the need to meet the evolving threat of Daesh/ISIS
in Africa and welcomed the first three Africa Focus Group meetings, which took
place in Brussels, Rome, and Marrakesh. Under the auspices of the Global
Coalition to Defeat Daesh/ISIS, the Africa Focus Group will bolster the
civilian-led counterterrorism capabilities of African members of the Defeat
Daesh/ISIS Coalition by drawing upon the Coalition’s experiences in Iraq and
Syria, and leveraging lessons learned, as appropriate, from the Defeat Daesh/ISIS
campaign there to the African continent. This effort includes sharing
assessments on the threat of Daesh/ISIS and other terrorist organizations on the
African continent and coordinating and collaborating on the most effective and
efficient methods to address these issues, including through proactive
information sharing and border management, as well as stabilization, prevention
and deradicalization projects. The Ministers stressed the need for the Africa
Focus Group to foster synergies with other existing international, sub-regional
and regional counterterrorism efforts and initiatives on the African continent.
The Ministers stressed the importance of addressing underlying causes to
insecurity in Africa, while reiterating that any lasting solution to halting the
spread of Daesh/ISIS on the continent will rely primarily on national
authorities, as well as sub-regional and regional efforts and initiatives that
acknowledge and address the political and economic drivers of conflict. The
Ministers noted with concern the proliferation of non-State actors, including
separatist movements, and the deployment in Africa of private military companies
that generate destabilization and further vulnerability of African states and
that ultimately favors Daesh/ISIS and other terrorist and violent extremist
organizations. The Ministers also recalled that the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition
will continue to be a civilian-driven effort by, with, and through our African
members, in line with the principles of national ownership, and in accord with
the specific needs of African member states. The Ministers saluted the entry of
Benin into the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition, bringing the total number of members
up to eighty-five. The Coalition’s efforts constitute an integral part of the
global counterterrorism structure.
The Ministers confirmed the common view that ISIS-Khorasan is a growing threat
to the South and Central Asian region. They strongly condemned the horrific
ISIS-Khorasan attacks during Ramadan and the Eid holiday in Afghanistan aimed at
civilians, especially minority groups. The Ministers are mindful of the need to
remain resolute in countering the ISIS-Khorasan threat in Afghanistan, through
Coalition working groups and individual member initiatives, in order to ensure
the lasting defeat of Daesh/ISIS in South and Central Asia, and elsewhere in the
globe.
The Ministers emphasized the need to address the global Daesh/ISIS threat
through holistic and comprehensive coordination of efforts, which are a hallmark
of the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition. Such efforts include the initiatives
forwarded by the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition Working Groups, including
Communications, Counter ISIS Finance, Foreign Terrorist Fighters, and
Stabilization.
The Ministers also recognized the importance of finding sustainable solutions to
the root causes of terrorism and violent extremism conducive to terrorism and
underlined the importance of ensuring the meaningful inclusion and participation
of women, youth and other marginalized populations in these efforts – noting the
important role of civil society, including women’s organizations and youth-led
organizations in preventing and combating terrorism and violent extremism
conducive to terrorism.
The Ministers also reiterated their global commitment to the survivors and
families of victims of Daesh/ISIS crimes, including by holding the Daesh/ISIS
leaders and perpetrators accountable. Recognizing that the atrocities carried
out by Daesh/ISIS, including sexual and gender-based violence, constitute some
of the most serious international crimes. The Ministers remain united in the
determination to prevent future generations from enduring the suffering
perpetrated by Daesh/ISIS. They therefore express their resolve to remain
absolutely vigilant, in the framework of the Defeat Daesh/ISIS Coalition and
beyond against the threat of terrorism, in all its forms and manifestations.
Canada/Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant concludes trip
to North Africa
May 12, 2022 – Rabat, Morocco - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Rob Oliphant, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign
Affairs, today concluded a productive trip to Egypt and Morocco aimed at
cultivating Canada’s bilateral relationships and advancing shared priorities,
including human rights.
In Cairo, Egypt, Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant met with regional partners and
senior Egyptian officials to reiterate Canada’s commitment to supporting peace
and stability in the region. He congratulated Egypt for hosting the 27th United
Nations Climate Change Conference in November 2022 and highlighted Canada’s
efforts towards addressing the impacts of climate change in Africa. He also
discussed opportunities to strengthen bilateral ties with Egypt, including
through increased collaboration on trade, as well as on women and youth
empowerment.
At the ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition against Daesh held in
Marrakesh, Morocco, Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant announced, on behalf of the
Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, $46.5 million in funding
for 15 projects to enhance security and stabilization in the Middle East, Africa
and Central Asia. This support will build on Canada’s and the Global Coalition’s
ongoing efforts to bolster peace and security in those regions.
While in Marrakesh and Rabat, Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant held a number of
bilateral meetings with senior Moroccan officials, parliamentarians, as well as
with senior officials from multiple partner countries, to discuss shared
priorities including trade, feminist foreign policy and security challenges in
Africa. He also visited a CARE project supported by Canada to hear directly from
the women working to alleviate poverty in their communities through better
access to training, financial capital and markets.
The Parliamentary Secretary concluded his visit to Morocco by commemorating the
60th anniversary of Canada-Morocco bilateral relations, noting the strong
collaboration and people-to-people ties between our two countries.
Quotes
“As we continue to work on Canada’s strategy for Africa, Egypt and Morocco are
key partners to advance our shared priorities, including for sustainable peace
and security and prosperity. It was important for the Coalition Against Daesh to
hold its ministerial meeting on African soil because we know threats to our
security continue to evolve and so must Canada's efforts. We remain committed in
supporting African partners and comprehensively addressing the root causes of
terrorism.”
- Robert Oliphant, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
During the past 10 years (2011–2021), Canada has provided over $123.7 million in
international assistance to Morocco and over $115.5 million to Egypt. Canada's
bilateral development programming in Morocco and Egypt largely focuses on gender
equality, the social and economic empowerment of women and girls, the
strengthening of education and vocational training programs, and the promotion
of inclusive growth and entrepreneurship.
Canada and Morocco co-chair the Global Counter-Terrorism Forum for 2019–2022.
Canada contributes to Morocco’s counterterrorism efforts through the
Counter-Terrorism Capacity Building Program (CTCBP). Since 2017, the CTCBP has
disbursed over $9.1 million to fund bilateral and regional programming in
Morocco.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 12-13/2022
Iran gaining the upper hand in
nuclear deal talks
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/May 12/2022
The leverage and political dynamics in the Iran nuclear deal talks appear to be
shifting in favor of the Islamic Republic. This could have severe repercussions
for peace and security in the region.
At the beginning of the nuclear talks, the US and the E3 (the UK, France and
Germany) had substantial leverage over the Iranian regime. This was due to the
fact that the theocratic establishment was more desperate than any other party
to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which is also known as the
Iran nuclear deal. The regime was on its knees economically and needed to revive
the nuclear deal. Its oil exports were down to about 200,000 barrels per day and
it faced a huge budget deficit. It even demanded that the US unblock $10 billion
in frozen assets to restart the nuclear talks. And it was facing extreme
difficulty in funding and sponsoring its widespread network of militia and
terror groups across the Middle East.But China has been steadily ramping up its
oil imports from Iran, reaching nearly 1 million bpd, and global oil prices have
increased. The Iranian regime is now reportedly exporting more than 1.5 million
bpd. This means it is exporting about 80 percent of the total it did before the
US imposed sanctions in 2018. Iran heavily relies on the revenue from its oil
exports, as the sale of oil accounts for more than 50 percent of the regime’s
export revenues. Furthermore, the EU has yet to join the US in imposing
sanctions on the Iranian regime. In fact, European countries are still trading
with Tehran in spite of the American sanctions.
When it comes to the EU’s position and its leverage in the nuclear talks, it
seems that the political calculations of its leaders have changed. European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week announced that EU countries
do not plan to buy Russian oil after the end of 2022. The UK is also planning to
phase out Russian oil imports by the end of the year. Now, the EU seems to be
looking to Iran as a replacement supplier. The bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep
Borrell told The Financial Times last week: “We Europeans will be very much
beneficiaries from this (nuclear) deal, the situation has changed now. For us it
was something… ‘well, we don’t need it (Iranian crude).’ Now it would be very
much interesting for us to have another supplier.”
By revealing its strategy, the EU is unfortunately empowering the ruling clerics
of Iran and giving them the upper hand in the nuclear talks, which they will use
to obtain more concessions. Europe’s desperation equals weakness to the Iranian
regime. In addition, the EU is suggesting that it is viewing the nuclear deal
mainly from an economic perspective. But this should not be the objective of the
nuclear talks. Instead, the EU ought to be seeking a strong deal that will
prevent the Iranian regime from ever acquiring nuclear weapons. Furthermore,
Borrell’s statement made the Iranian regime more determined to cling to its top
demand, which is the removal of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its
Quds Force from the US’ terrorist list. The designation of the IRGC as a Foreign
Terrorist Organization had nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear program, but was
rather linked to its terror activities across the world. The Biden
administration and the EU must not give in to the demands of the Iranian
leaders.
Now, the EU appears to have given in to the Iranian leaders’ demand, as it
revealed last week that it was suggesting a compromise that would see the IRGC
removed from the US’ terror list. Borell said: “At a certain moment, I will have
to say, as coordinator (of the nuclear deal talks) I make this proposal on the
table, formally… the only equilibrium point possible would be this one.”On the
other hand, the Biden administration seems to be looking for a foreign policy
achievement and diplomatic win amid the crisis. The nuclear deal talks have been
dragging on for a long time and the White House has been facing criticism over
its handling of foreign affairs. According to a January Quinnipiac poll, a
majority of the American people disapproved of the Biden administration’s
foreign policy approach. The latest developments seem to have given the Iranian
regime the upper hand in the nuclear talks. But the Biden administration and the
EU must not give in to the demands of the Iranian leaders and stand firm against
Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Iranian Americans fear for safety from
possible Iran-deal concession fallout
Karmel Melamed/JNS/May 12 /2022
“We have lived with Islamists in Iran and know their psychology, their politics
and the way they operate. Appeasing them will haunt you, and they consider these
moves as temporary and a sign of weakness,” says George Haroonian, a Los
Angeles-based Iranian Jewish activist.
(May 11, 2022 / JNS) With reports that Iran has demanded that the Biden
administration drop the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—a
regime-controlled terrorist entity—from the U.S. State Department’s list of
Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) as a final condition to re-entering the
2015 nuclear deal, Iranian American activists of various faiths have expressed
concern for their community’s safety if U.S. negotiators give in to the regime’s
demands.
While the majority of leaders in the Iranian Jewish communities in Southern
California and New York have long remained refrained from publicly commenting on
the Islamic Republic for fear that what they say may be used as an excuse by the
regime to retaliate against the estimated 5,000 to 8,000 Jews still living
there, individual Jewish activists are instead speaking up.
“The (Iranian) regime has in the past been sending trained agents whose mission
has included surveillance of Jewish community institutions and cooperation with
Islamic organizations in the United States,” said George Haroonian, a L.A.-based
Iranian Jewish activist. “Taking out the IRGC from the terror list will give an
open hand for the regime to implement its intentions.”
Haroonian and other Iranian Jewish activists said they were trying to raise
public awareness of the dangers that the IRGC possess not only to American Jews
but to all Americans by sharing firsthand experiences of dealing with the
regime’s reign of terror.
“We have lived with Islamists in Iran, and we know their psychology, their
politics and the way they operate,” said Haroonian. “They are different from
Westerners, who will make a compromise and stand by it. Appeasing them will
haunt you, and they consider these moves as temporary and a sign of weakness.”
Some American Jewish leaders have said they were shocked that the current U.S.
administration has been willing to discuss the delisting of the IRGC from the
U.S. terror list during the current nuclear-deal negotiations taking place in
Austria.
“That the Biden team would even consider such a move is a travesty,” said Rabbi
Abraham Cooper, associate dean for global social action of the Simon Wiesenthal
Center in Los Angeles. “If they actually cave and delist the IRCG, it would make
the entire world—starting with the U.S. and Israel—more vulnerable to
catastrophic terrorism.”
The IRGC was first designated by the Treasury Department in October 2007 under
the counterproliferation authorities of Executive Order 13382. That action also
designated the IRGC’s Quds Force branch—though not the IRGC overall—as a
terrorist group. In June 2011, the State Department designated the IRGC for its
human-rights abuses and in October 2017, the IRGC in its entirety was designated
as a terrorist group. Finally, in 2019, the State Department added the IRGC to
the FTO list.
Non-Jewish Iranian activists living in the United States who have been very
vocal in publicly opposing the Iranian regime said they fear for their lives if
IRGC members would be permitted into the country following their delisting from
the FTO.
“We fled Iran to get away from the IRGC and the regime’s brutal killers who want
to spread their radical Islamic ideology by extreme violence worldwide,” said
Roozbeh Farahinpour, a L.A.-based Iranian American activist opposed to the
Iranian regime. “It is outrageous that the Biden administration would not only
put all of our security at risk by allowing these IRGC killers here, but also
the lives of millions of our friends and neighbors who are not Iranian here in
the U.S.”
Farahinpour, who had a fatwa (religious edict) issued against him by an Iranian
regime cleric calling for his killing eight years ago, said that U.S. officials
should avoid permitting the IRGC entry because their members have unleashed
their reign of terror for more than four decades against Iranian opposition
activists living in Europe.
“Just look at the IRGC’s criminal track record in places like France, Germany
and elsewhere in Europe, where they have murdered countless opposition activists
in cold blood after the European governments failed to bar their e
More recently, Iranian American activists opposed to the regime have indeed had
cause to worry for their safety due to a recent event that unfolded in Southern
California.
Late last month, Sam Rajabi, an Iranian American activist from the L.A.-based
“Normal Life Council” nonprofit group, posted a brief video on social media
showing Parviz Parastui, an Iranian actor and IRGC sympathizer, assaulting him
during a brief encounter. Parastui, who had come to Southern California from
Iran to promote his new film, was approached by Rajabi in the video and asked
repeatedly about his ties to the U.S.-assassinated Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani,
head of the IRGC Quds Force.
“All I did was to ask him [Parastui] politely about his past relationship with
Soleimani, and instead of giving me a straight answer, he violently knocked my
phone out of my hands and insulted me,” said Rajabi. “This is the best example
of the type of truly violent people from the Islamic regime we cannot allow into
America.”
Rajabi said he filed a criminal complaint for assault against Parastui with the
Orange County Sheriff’s Department in Southern California. Calls made to the
Orange County district attorney’s office as to whether they would arrest and
charge Parastui for assault before his return to Iran were not returned.
A number of Iranian American activists said they have increasingly received
direct death threats from the Iranian regime’s thugs online and offline for
actively opposing the regime. A possible delisting of the IRGC from the FTO
would have a “chilling effect” on their protesting activities in the United
States, they said.
“In my case, I was told that they knew where I lived and said they would send ‘a
bunch of people’ to hurt me and would make it look like an accident or a random
event,” said Navid Mohebbi, a former political prisoner in Iran and a policy
fellow at the “National Union for Democracy in Iran” an opposition group to the
Iranian regime based in Washington, D.C.
Mohsen Sazegara, a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy think tank in Washington, D.C., and now an opponent of the Iranian
regime, was one of the founders of the IRGC. He said it was originally
established in 1979 to serve as a type of national guard to protect Iran
alongside the military but has since morphed into a global criminal terrorist
entity.
“From Kabul to Caracas, the IRGC has become this massive mafia consortium with
its own political and economic power, which is involved with everything from
terrorism, narcotics trafficking, prostitution and exclusively running various
industries within Iran,” said Sazegara. “They are a direct threat to U.S.
national security and to the entire world. U.S. officials who don’t recognize
their threat are gravely mistaken.”
Other Iranian American activists opposed to the Iranian regime said they were
frustrated that during the past decade, scores of regime supporters possessing
as “intellectuals” have increasingly penetrated different facets of American
society and tried to sugarcoat the IRGC’s terrorist track record. “We came here
to be safe but now precariously find ourselves surrounded by pro-regime
individuals who have infiltrated U.S. think tanks, media and institutions of
higher education,” said Dr. Reza Behrouz, an Iranian American activist and
neurologist based in San Antonio.
*Bryan E. Leib, executive director of the “Iranian Americans for Liberty,” a
nonprofit advocacy group opposed to the Iranian regime and based in Washington,
D.C., said many Iranian Americans have been especially angered that Sen. Chris
Murphy (D-Conn.) in an April interview on MSNBC argued that the IRGC should be
taken off the FTO.
“As we all know,” said Leib, “the IRGC has the blood of Americans on their hands
through their actions and the action of their terrorist proxies around the
world.”
https://www.jns.org/iranian-americans-fear-for-safety-from-possible-iran-deal-concession-fallout/
The Badly Needed EastMed Pipeline Awaits Approval
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute./May 12, 2022
"Germany must be prepared that it could be the next country to which Gazprom
cuts gas deliveries. Europe, therefore, needs a multitude of alternatives to the
Russian energy supply." — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, The New York Times,
April 28, 2022.
The pre-feasibility studies [of the EastMed pipeline that would transport gas to
Europe from Israel and Cyprus through Greece], conducted from 2015-18 and paid
for by the European Union, found that the project is "technically feasible,
economically viable and commercially competitive."
"The analysis conducted for the activity related to the economic, financial and
competitiveness studies, evidenced that the [EastMed] Project contributes to the
improvement of market integration of currently isolated countries such as Cyprus
and some Greek regions, to the enhancement of energy security diversifying the
supply sources for Europe and to the reduction of the EU-wide consumers' gas
bill." — Conclusion of pre-feasibility studies published by European Commission,
July 2019.
"Moreover, taking into account the need of additional net imports to satisfy EU
gas demand by 2030 and the risk associated to the current production
availability, procurement and transport of gas supply, the Project provides
strategic contribution to the EU security of supply." — Conclusion of
pre-feasibility studies published by European Commission, July 2019.
The significant rise in natural gas prices in Europe favors the economic
viability of the pipeline, according to energy expert Michalis Mathioulakis, of
the ELIAMEP think tank.
[US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria] Nuland's comments
appeared especially odd as, after meeting with her counterparts in Turkey on
April 4, she told the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet that more pipelines were needed
in the Eastern Mediterranean. The US, it appears, prefers to steer the business
to Turkey's strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, rather than to America's
democratic allies, Cyprus, Israel and Greece.
According to the Biden administration, therefore, pipelines that go via Turkey
are apparently acceptable, Algerian gas pipelines are also acceptable, but the
long-planned Israeli-Greek-Cypriot EastMed pipeline is not acceptable.
"What we are waiting for is the final report which is financed by the EU. And I
repeat, the position was from the start – and that is why the study is being
carried out – if it is viable, if there are investors, if the seabed permits,
then it will be carried out. The US government does not decide about a European
project. What everyone can see, and this is very important, is the need for the
EU to cease being dependent on specific markets and the alternative channels for
natural gas to Europe and the closest is none other than the basin of the
eastern Mediterranean." — Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades, Cyprus Mail,
April 8, 2022.
"[I]t must not be up to one of the parties, the United States, to impose its own
energy policy upon the parties, but rather, it should be up to the parties to
arrive at an energy policy that best serves their collective interest. Under
Secretary Nuland's contradictory messaging on Eastern Mediterranean pipeline
projects.... gives the appearance of appeasement of Turkey." — Nick Larigakis,
American Hellenic Institute, Ekathimerini, April 12, 2022.
Turkey has been opposed to the EastMed pipeline project all along... [W]hen the
Biden administration first announced its unofficial opposition to the project,
the reasons given by the US were primarily environmental and financial. Then,
suddenly, Nuland claimed that the timeline for the project is too long because
Europe needs gas "now." Whatever the reasons given, they come across as an
ill-disguised attempt at placating Turkey at the expense of Europe's energy
security, and attempts to free itself of Russian energy dependency. The Biden
administration is once again demonstrating how, unfortunately, it prefers to do
business.
The European Union is finding it more than difficult to beat its dependence on
Russian oil and gas, thereby, sadly, financing Russia's war effort. One
alternative is the proposed EastMed pipeline, which would carry natural gas
extracted from fields under the waters of Israel's and Cyprus's Exclusive
Economic Zones, to Greece and from there to other European countries. Pictured:
Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiadis (left), Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos
Mitsotakis (center) and then Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake
hands in Athens on January 2, 2020, ahead of signing the pipeline agreement.
(Photo by Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images)
Russia is expected to make almost $321 billion from its energy exports this year
-- over a third more, according to Bloomberg, than last year.
Twenty-seven European Union member states, despite adopting five packages of
sanctions since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, have nevertheless spent
at least around 35 billion euros -- around $38 billion -- in payments to Russia
for its oil and gas since the invasion, according to the EU's foreign-policy
chief, Josep Borrell.
The EU is finding it more than difficult to beat its dependence on Russian oil
and gas, thereby, sadly, financing Russia's war effort. Thirty-six percent of
Russia's revenues last year came from the sale of oil and gas. "Oil revenue
makes up a large share of Moscow's budget. It is a key funding source for
Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Slashing Russia's oil revenue could hasten an end
to the conflict," American Enterprise Institute resident scholar Michael R.
Strain recently wrote.
The EU as a whole, thus far, has only managed to agree on banning imports of
Russian coal, which last year amounted to a mere €4 billion annually, a much
smaller number than for oil and gas. Facing increasing pressure to stop
importing Russian oil and gas as Russian war crimes continue to mount, Europe is
frantically looking for energy alternatives, both short- and long-term.
There are, however, European countries that have already decided to stop
importing Russian oil and gas. Lithuania recently did so; its president, Gitanas
Nauseda, tweeted, "If we can do it, the rest of Europe can do it too." Poland
also announced that it will end imports of Russian oil and gas by the end of
this year.
On April 27, Russia declared that it was cutting gas to Poland and Bulgaria.
Both countries had refused to pay for gas imports in Russian rubles, as Russia's
President Vladimir Putin had demanded. Other countries may now also soon face a
sudden cut-off of Russian gas deliveries. According to Edward Gardner of Capital
Economics:
"President Putin's decree that gas payments made by 'unfriendly' countries must
be denominated in rubles raises the risk that supply could be cut off to other
European countries when payments are due in the next few weeks."
Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that a disruption of Russian gas
supplies could cause Germany to enter a recession. Germany, he said, must be
prepared that it could be the next country to which Gazprom cuts gas deliveries.
Europe, therefore, needs a multitude of alternatives to the Russian energy
supply.
One of those alternatives is the proposed 1,900-kilometer EastMed pipeline,
which would carry natural gas extracted from offshore gas fields under the
waters of Israel's and Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zones, to Greece and from
there to Italy and other European countries. The pipeline was originally
scheduled for completion by 2025, at an estimated cost of 6 billion euros, and
is projected to have the initial capacity to transfer 10 billion cubic meters of
natural gas a year. The pre-feasibility studies, conducted from 2015-18 and paid
for by the European Union, found that the project was "technically feasible,
economically viable and commercially competitive."
"The analysis conducted for the activity related to the economic, financial and
competitiveness studies, evidenced that the [EastMed] Project contributes to the
improvement of market integration of currently isolated countries such as Cyprus
and some Greek regions, to the enhancement of energy security diversifying the
supply sources for Europe and to the reduction of the EU-wide consumers' gas
bill. Moreover, taking into account the need of additional net imports to
satisfy EU gas demand by 2030 and the risk associated to the current production
availability, procurement and transport of gas supply, the Project provides
strategic contribution to the EU security of supply."
The EastMed pipeline project, therefore, went on to the next phase of the
feasibility studies, which are still ongoing.
"Financial and political support by the EU can facilitate the final investment
decision-making process by the private entities that are considering their
participation in the project," Michalis Mathioulakis, an energy expert at the
ELIAMEP think tank, said recently, adding that the significant rise in natural
gas prices in Europe favors the economic viability of the pipeline.
It was all the more surprising, therefore, when in January, the United States,
in a complete policy reversal, unofficially communicated to Israel, Greece and
Cyprus that it no longer supported the pipeline. Then, on April 6, US
Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland made it even
clearer that the US was officially killing off the EastMed project. As the final
feasibility report on the project is still underway, the US decision seemed to
come out of the blue.
During a visit to Greece, Nuland said in an interview with the newspaper
Kathimerini:
"We don't need to wait for 10 years and spend billions of dollars on this stuff.
We need to move the gas now, And we need to use gas today as a transition to a
greener future. Ten years from now we don't want a pipeline. Ten years from now
we want to be green. So we've got to use LNG [liquefied natural gas] and we've
got to use electricity connections that we can do more quickly."
Nuland's comments came across as remarkably tone-deaf at a time when the US has
actively been seeking to lower oil prices worldwide by appealing to
dictatorships such as Saudi Arabia to increase oil production and even courting
Venezuela. If anything, oil is even less "green" than natural gas, and the
projected time during which the EastMed pipeline can be built is probably not
ten years, but significantly less. Furthermore, natural gas is likely to be
relevant for decades to come. It is, to say the least, highly unlikely that
there will be enough renewable energy to cover European energy needs within the
next decade. Fossil fuels will most likely still be needed for the foreseeable
future to manufacture those electric cars and fly those airplanes. The greatest
beneficiaries of the US and the West closing down their energy industries will
be Russia, Iran and other countries set to make a windfall selling their fossil
fuels.
Nuland's comments appeared especially odd as, after meeting with her
counterparts in Turkey on April 4, she told the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet that
more pipelines were needed in the Eastern Mediterranean:
"There are lots of different kinds of opportunities in the eastern Meditteranean
some involving Turkey's nearer neighbors, some involving new exploration and new
pipelines, Nuland suggested."
"'So, we want to work with you on all of that, and we particularly want to help
Turkey and its goal of diversifying away from Russian dependence,' she said."
The US, it appears, prefers to steer the business to Turkey's strongman,
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, rather than to America's democratic allies,
Cyprus, Israel and Greece.
What makes Nuland's comments appear even more hypocritical is that Secretary of
State Antony Blinken, during his recent visit to Algeria, is thought to have
urged Algeria to reopen a pipeline that used to carry Algerian natural gas
through Moroccan territory to Spain, to help European countries reduce their
energy dependence on Russia.
According to the Biden administration, therefore, pipelines that go via Turkey
are apparently acceptable, Algerian gas pipelines are also acceptable, but the
long-planned Israeli-Greek-Cypriot EastMed pipeline is not acceptable.
Members of the EastMed project, however, did not sit back and accept Nuland's
remarks, which is perhaps also an indication of the Biden administration's
reduced standing in parts of Europe.
"The EastMed [pipeline] is alive and kicking." Greek Foreign Minister Nikos
Dendias said in response.
President of Cyprus Nicos Anastasiades said in response to Nuland's remarks:
"What we are waiting for is the final report which is financed by the EU. And I
repeat, the position was from the start – and that is why the study is being
carried out – if it is viable, if there are investors, if the seabed permits,
then it will be carried out. The US government does not decide about a European
project..."
"What everyone can see, and this is very important, is the need for the EU to
cease being dependent on specific markets and the alternatives channels for
natural gas to Europe and the closest is none other than the basin of the
eastern Mediterranean."
Nick Larigakis, president of the American Hellenic Institute, a US-based
lobbying organization that works to strengthen US-Greek and US-Cypriot
relations, also found Nuland's remarks concerning:
"Energy cooperation is a critical component of the '3+1' mechanism between
Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and the United States. However, it must not be up to one
of the parties, the United States, to impose its own energy policy upon the
parties, but rather, it should be up to the parties to arrive at an energy
policy that best serves their collective interest. Under Secretary Nuland's
contradictory messaging on Eastern Mediterranean pipeline projects, indicating
her support and subsequent skepticism of such projects within the same week, is
confusing and unhelpful. It gives the appearance of appeasement of Turkey."
Turkey has been opposed to the EastMed pipeline project all along. Back in
January, when the Biden administration first announced its unofficial opposition
to the project, the reasons given by the US were primarily environmental and
financial. Then, suddenly, Nuland claimed that the timeline for the project is
too long because Europe needs gas "now." Whatever the reasons given, they come
across as an ill-disguised attempt at placating Turkey at the expense of
Europe's energy security, and attempts to free itself of Russian energy
dependency. The Biden administration is once again demonstrating how,
unfortunately, it prefers to do business.
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Canada’s Future Prime Minister Needs to Come Clean About
Her Nazi Collaborationist Grandfather
Jeremy Appel/Tablet/May 12/2022
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland’s electoral base is in Canada’s
Ukrainian diaspora community, which has rebranded Nazi collaborators as
nationalist war heroes
On Jan. 26, 2022, in the midst of Russia’s preparations to invade Ukraine,
Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland issued a statement outlining
why Canada—home to the largest Ukrainian diaspora outside Russia—would support
Ukraine unconditionally, outlining a Manichean view of a “struggle between
democracy and authoritarianism.” “Canadians—our own parents and
grandparents—fought and died,” she continued, “to establish a rules-based
international order during and after the Second World War.”
Freeland’s Ukrainian grandfather on her mother’s side, Michael Chomiak, did
nothing of the sort. During the War, he edited Krakivski Visti, a Nazi
propaganda rag in occupied Krakow that was printed on a press confiscated from a
Jewish newspaper. Freeland, of course, is not her grandfather, nor is she
responsible for his actions. But she is responsible for bringing him up at every
opportunity to portray him as a liberal democrat who profoundly influenced her
politics.
“My maternal grandparents fled western Ukraine after Hitler and Stalin signed
their non-aggression pact in 1939. They never dared to go back, but they stayed
in close touch with their brothers and sisters and their families, who remained
behind,” she wrote in a 2015 essay for the Brookings Institution titled “My
Ukraine.” “For the rest of my grandparents’ lives, they saw themselves as
political exiles with a responsibility to keep alive the idea of an independent
Ukraine, which had last existed, briefly, during and after the chaos of the 1917
Russian Revolution. That dream persisted into the next generation, and in some
cases the generation after that.”
A Toronto Star puff piece from 2015 described Freeland’s grandfather as a
“lawyer and journalist” who fled western Ukraine after the Soviets invaded,
while conveniently ignoring the nature of his journalism. “All my grandparents
loved Canada but my Ukrainian grandfather was the most passionate,” Freeland
said. In 2016, she used the occasion of Black Ribbon Day, which perpetuates a
false equivalence between Nazism and communism, to tweet a loving tribute to her
maternal grandparents. “They were forever grateful to Canada for giving them
refuge and they worked hard to bring freedom and democracy to Ukraine,” Freeland
tweeted.
The deputy prime minister and finance minister’s revisionist family history is
part of a broader project of myth-making in parts of the Ukrainian diaspora, in
which certain anti-Soviet Nazi collaborators are often rebranded as nationalist
war heroes. In Edmonton, where Freeland was raised, there are two monuments
commemorating Ukrainian Nazi collaborators. A bust of Roman Shukhevych, who
massacred thousands of Jews and Poles, has stood outside the Ukrainian Youth
Unity Complex since the 1970s, in addition to a monument to the 14th Waffen SS
Division—which was celebrated in the pages of Krakivski Visti—at a local
cemetery.
Many Ukrainian diaspora community leaders in Canada maintain that these
Ukrainians were in fact anti-Nazi, in addition to being vehemently
anti-communist, and that claims to the contrary are Russian propaganda. When
reports of Michael Chomiak’s wartime activities first began to circulate in the
Russian and Polish press in 2017, Freeland, who was then minister of foreign
affairs, claimed the story was a piece of Russian disinformation designed to
undermine Canadian democracy.
“American officials have publicly said, and even Angela Merkel has publicly
said, that there were efforts on the Russian side to destabilize Western
democracies, and I think it shouldn’t come as a surprise if these same efforts
were used against Canada,” Freeland told reporters who inquired about her
grandfather. The opposition Conservative foreign affairs critic of the day,
Peter Kent, accused the Russian government of “trying to smear a minister with
historical detail that has probably been misrepresented.” The Canadian
government retaliated the following year by expelling four Russian diplomats,
which Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said was a result of their “sharing
scurrilous stories” about Freeland.
Although the story about Chomiak’s past was amplified in pro-Russian media, it
didn’t start there, and Freeland knew it. In 1996, Freeland’s uncle and
Chomiak’s son-in-law, University of Alberta Holocaust historian John-Paul Himka,
wrote a paper in the Journal of Ukrainian Studies on Krakivski Visti in the
context of Ukrainian-Jewish relations. In the first footnote of the piece, Himka
thanks none other than Chrystia Freeland—who prior to her political career
worked as a journalist at the Globe and Mail, the Financial Times, and
Reuters—for her editorial assistance. Asked about her role in editing her
uncle’s paper, Freeland’s office finally acknowledged—without elaboration, or
any explanation of her previous obfuscation—“her uncle’s efforts to study and
publish on this difficult chapter in her late grandfather’s past.”
Krakivski Visti was created in 1940 for Ukrainian nationalists who had fled Lviv,
the capital of Ukrainian Galicia, after the Soviets invaded the year before and
settled in Krakow, Himka explains. He notes that the paper did include valuable
articles on Ukrainian history and culture that are worth reading for those
interested in those subjects. It also published antisemitic propaganda in line
with Nazi war aims.
Out of disdain for the Soviets, many Ukrainian nationalists regarded the Nazis
as temporary allies of convenience for their broader aim of securing national
independence from Moscow. At the time, Ukrainians were stateless, with
modern-day Ukraine divided between the Soviet Union, Poland, Romania, and
Czechoslovakia. “They were very interested in helping the Germans with those
issues they had a common interest in and one of those was removing the Jews from
the territory,” Himka explained to the Progress Report. “A very important group
of Ukrainian nationalists wanted a Ukraine for Ukrainians, so they wanted to
remove, one way or another, all nationalist minorities.”
While most nationalist papers in Nazi-occupied Europe were run directly by the
Germans, Chomiak’s paper was not, suggesting a degree of trust and collegiality
between the paper’s editorial staff and Nazi authorities. Indeed, Ukrainian
Canadian researcher Alex Boykowich unearthed a photo from the province of
Alberta archives of Chomiak at a social gathering with Emil Gassner, who was in
charge of the Nazis’ press department and answered directly to Joseph Goebbels,
in addition to other documents revealing the extent of Chomiak’s collaboration.
As Himka notes, Gassner directly instructed the paper’s editors to print a
series of antisemitic articles in the spring of 1943, just as the Warsaw Ghetto
uprising was underway, which the Krakivski Visti’s editorial staff surmised as
an opportunity to demonstrate their fealty to the Germans. Headlines from that
time include “At the Sources of the Universal Conspiracy,” “A Nation of
Desperados,” “The Jews Are Depraving Europe,” and “How They Helped the
Bolsheviks.” One article said the Jews “always take the side of our enemies.”
Freeland could have simply and honestly acknowledged this disturbing aspect of
her grandfather’s legacy and moved on—plenty of contemporary German officials
with troubled family histories are perfectly capable of doing so—but instead she
has used it as an opportunity to sow fear and mistrust about foreign threats to
Canadian democracy.
Freeland, who speaks Ukrainian and Russian fluently, has close ties to Canada’s
Ukrainian community, which is influential in electoral districts in Toronto,
Winnipeg, and Edmonton that swing between Liberal and Conservative
representation. Paul Grod, the president of the Ukrainian World Congress, former
president of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress (UCC), and a close friend of
Freeland’s, said her ties to the Ukrainian diaspora community extend to her
relationship with Ukrainian parliamentarians of all stripes, including figures
like the stridently nationalist Andriy Parubiy, the founder of the Ukraine
Social National Party, or Svoboda, who eventually served as the more pragmatic
chairman of the Ukrainian parliament from 2016-19.
“She’s been a superstar with every Ukrainian president and prime minister that
she’s interacted with,” Grod told The Ukrainian Weekly. “She walks on
water—that’s the way she’s perceived.” Freeland has “always been prepared to
provide both unsolicited and solicited advice to me and the leadership of the
Ukrainian Canadian and global Ukrainian communities,” added Grod.
As president of the UCC, Grod pushed for the Canadian government to recognize
the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and its armed wing, the
Ukrainian Insurgent Army, as anti-Nazi resistance fighters, despite the fact
that they fought alongside the Nazis, murdering thousands of Jews and Poles in
the name of establishing an ethnically pure independent Ukraine. Recognizing
them as resistance fighters would have provided surviving members with access to
publicly funded veterans’ pension funds, but Grod’s push was unsuccessful.
At a 2016 keynote address to the UCC in Regina, Saskatchewan, Freeland ended her
speech with a call-and-response chant that is popular at official Ukrainian
community events—Slava Ukraini! Heroiam slava!—which translates to, “Glory to
Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!” Readers might have become familiar with the first
half of the chant in the last few months, ever since Ukraine started fighting
for its national survival against the armies of Vladimir Putin. But people with
deep ties to the diaspora community, like Freeland, understand that the full
chant—including Heroiam slava!—began as the official slogan of the OUN in 1941.
On Feb. 17, 2022, Freeland defended the Liberal government’s decision to freeze
the bank accounts of those who participated in and supported the so-called
Freedom Convoy to Ottawa, a group of truckers and associated demonstrators
ostensibly protesting vaccine mandates. Freeland said the government felt “great
sorrow,” but that its debanking actions—part of a broader invocation of the
never-before-used Emergencies Act—were necessary to “defend our democracy” and
to “restore peace and order.” The Emergencies Act allowed the government to
prohibit certain forms of protest and seize property related to it without a
warrant or trial.
The act was revoked a week later, just days after receiving parliamentary
approval. But it was hard not to notice Freeland’s enthusiasm for citing
“disinformation” to justify the use of extraordinary state powers against
domestic political opponents while simultaneously leveraging the specter of
“disinformation” to whitewash her own family history—all in the name of
democracy.
When Canada announced it was offering $7.8 million in military assistance to
Ukraine on Feb. 14, alongside a $500 million loan, there were few safeguards to
ensure it wouldn’t fall into the hands of the country’s Azov Battalion, whose
founder, Andriy Biletsky, said in 2010 that Ukraine must “lead the white races
of the world in a final crusade … against Semite-led Untermenschen [subhumans].”
Reporting from the Ottawa Citizen revealed that Canadian military officials met
with Azov leaders in June 2018, and rather than distance themselves from the
unit, merely expressed concern that it could get leaked to the media. In
response to questions from the Citizen, Canadian Forces spokesperson Lt.-Cmdr.
Julie McDonald said it is Ukraine’s responsibility to vet its own forces for
far-right extremism.
Azov, of course, is not representative of Ukraine, whose Jewish president won a
landslide electoral victory in 2019. That same year, a coalition of far-right
parties affiliated with Azov received just 2% of the vote, well below the
threshold required to sit in parliament. But after the Russian invasion, Azov
was incorporated as part of the Ukrainian National Guard to assist in fighting
Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine.
War makes for some unsavory allies, and many would say that holding our noses
while we partially rely on groups like Azov to provide some measure of
resistance to Russian aggression is the least bad option available to a
pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia policy. But in a country like Canada, where the
historical suppression of Nazi collaborationism has not only been tolerated but
insisted upon at the highest levels of office, voters have every right to wonder
about the person who many believe will be our next prime minister.
Iraq's political comedy errors
Samir Adel/The Arab Weekly/May 12/2022
Sadr's latest initiative is the most farcical of all his failed initiatives.
The Iraqi political scene is not just a political impasse as analysts and
pundits say. It should also be seen as a mediocre comedy, regardless of all its
banners, political parties and various protagonists.
The first comedic actors are the intellectuals and writers, who have
relentlessly marketed themselves as liberals and democrats, as they tried to
restore the lustre of the political process after the October 10 elections. They
pin the blame on those who boycotted the ballot, which was shunned by more than
82 percent of Iraqis. They claim that a radical change would have been possible
if the so-called independents had obtained a large number of seats. They bury
their heads in the sand by forgetting that the ballot boxes did not and will
never resolve the issue of political power in the Middle East, whether under
authoritarian political regimes linked to imperialist powers or under Iraq’s
rule of the militias.
In the Iraqi experience, elections are but a slapstick comedy where actors
occasionally try to recalibrate the political process to keep pace with regional
and international changes. The young liberals’ intellectual approach does not
allow them to see beyond their noses, as they cannot accept that change is
possible outside the political process, even if all political crises that have
occurred since the US invasion and occupation of Iraq were part of that same
political process. The second source of comedic levity are the initiatives
announced from time to time by the parties of the “Shia family” as a way to gain
time and blot out the nature of the competition over benefits and spoils.
Moqtada al-Sadr’s 40-day deadline, was and is still an expression of the
dead-end reached by the process of government formation and the monopoly of
power under the banner of the majority government.
The deadline was an opportunity to hold negotiations behind the scenes and to
allow the intervention of regional and international powers in Iraq’s political
power crisis.
As for the Coordination Framework’s initiative, announced on the first day of
Eid al-Fitr, there was nothing new. Despite all the spin, its nine points did
not contain anything original. A new election law, a new commission, the
enactment of the oil and gas law to regulate the relationship between Baghdad
and Erbil and the inclusion of the Peshmerga forces in the armed forces ... are
only tools that each bloc brings up when the political crisis escalates. The
initiative was nothing more than media fanfare aimed at obscuring the fact that
the ultimate aim was to save the share of the largest Shia component in the
practical and political sense, after it was legally saved by the Federal Court,
which issued a ruling requiring the presence of two-thirds of parliament members
to elect the president of the republic.
Sadr's latest initiative is on the other hand the most farcical of all his
failed stratagems. It called for tasking independents with forming the
government, provided that the Coordination Framework does not participate in it.
This is another unsuccessful attempt to buy off the so-called independents and
bring them back to the fold, or cut off the road before any attempts by the
Coordination Framework. No less farcical is the visit of Parliament Speaker
Muhammad al-Halbousi to Iran a few days ago, in a strange attempt to defuse the
political crisis. Halbousi, who with Sadr and Kadhimi likes to play the tune of
the sovereignty and independence of Iraq, travelled to Teheran to beg Iranian
mullahs to pressure the crumbling “Shia house” to cede some gains and spoils of
power to Sadr and his bloc. Halbousi did not make that visit without the consent
of the parties to the Triple Alliance, Sadr, Barzani and Khanjar along with
Halbousi himself.
Iraq is going through a transitional phase. The failure of all political
initiatives, the formation of the government and the holding of elections
reflects the escalation of the conflict between two projects, neither of which
could gain the upper hand.
They are the projects aimed at aligning Iraq with the Iranian camp, which calls
itself the resistance and rejection camp. It is worth noting in this regard that
the bombing of the Green Zone, almost simultaneously with the bombing of the
region near Erbil, was as much a message to Kadhimi to stop the
Turkish-requested Iraqi army’s attack aimed at removing Turkish Kurdistan
Workers Party (PKK) from the city of Sinjar, where they are sheltered by the
Popular Mobilisation militias, as it was an attempt to stir up the stagnant
water of the domestic political scene.
The second project is Kadhimi’s project. The Iraqi prime minister nearly paid
for it with his life, as Rafik Hariri once did. This project is backed by
Tripartite Alliance and advocates a return of Iraq to the Arab fold. Finally,
all this screaming and yelling about the Iraqi political impasse can be summed
up in a question: was the political situation in Iraq any different before the
current impasse and since the formation of the Paul Bremer’s civilian
administration in 2003 until the October 2021 elections? The answer is obvious.
One easily comes to the conclusion that what is happening in the political scene
is a low-level comedy in the absolute sense of the word. It is a sorry scene on
which the curtains should fall.