English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For May 08/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
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Bible Quotations For today
The Third Time That Jesus Appeared To The
Disciples After His Resurrection
John/21/01-14/ Afterward Jesus appeared again to his
disciples, by the Sea of Galilee. It happened this way: 2 Simon Peter, Thomas
(also known as Didymus, Nathanael from Cana in Galilee, the sons of Zebedee, and
two other disciples were together. “I’m going out to fish,” Simon Peter told
them, and they said, “We’ll go with you.” So they went out and got into the
boat, but that night they caught nothing. Early in the morning, Jesus stood on
the shore, but the disciples did not realize that it was Jesus. He called out to
them, “Friends, haven’t you any fish?”“No,” they answered. He said, “Throw your
net on the right side of the boat and you will find some.” When they did, they
were unable to haul the net in because of the large number of fish. Then the
disciple whom Jesus loved said to Peter, “It is the Lord!” As soon as Simon
Peter heard him say, “It is the Lord,” he wrapped his outer garment around him
(for he had taken it off) and jumped into the water. 8 The other disciples
followed in the boat, towing the net full of fish, for they were not far from
shore, about a hundred yards. When they landed, they saw a fire of burning coals
there with fish on it, and some bread. Jesus said to them, “Bring some of the
fish you have just caught.” So Simon Peter climbed back into the boat and
dragged the net ashore. It was full of large fish, 153, but even with so many
the net was not torn. Jesus said to them, “Come and have breakfast.” None of the
disciples dared ask him, “Who are you?” They knew it was the Lord. Jesus came,
took the bread and gave it to them, and did the same with the fish. This was now
the third time Jesus appeared to his disciples after he was raised from the
dead.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 07-08/2022
Lebanese parliamentary elections: Second phase of expat voting scheduled
for Sunday
Lebanon election: 36 per cent turnout recorded in first stage of overseas voting
Miqati pleased with expat voting process, hopes new MPs will achieve change
Expat vote ballots start arriving in Lebanon
Corona - Health Ministry: 102 new Corona cases, two deaths
Mawlawi encourages Lebanese expatriates to partake in voting process
Parliamentary Elections - Foreign Affairs, Interior Ministries' representatives
receive ballot boxes from Qatar
Elections are crucial, for they determine Lebanon's policy for the next four
years," Bayram underlines
Al-Makari announces launch of "Telethon for Tele-Liban": We will stay with the
state even though it is escaping us; our presence today is an act of...
A Lebanese online archive chronicles Arab immigration to Latin America/Eduardo
Campos Lima/Arab News/May 07/2022
Russia-Backed ‘Eighth Brigade’ Arrests Hezbollah Agent in Southern Syria
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on May 07-08/2022
Egypt says 11 troops killed in militant attack in Sinai
Israeli troops demolish home of Palestinian assailant
Israelis Openly Call for Assassination of Hamas Leaders after Latest Stabbing
Amnesty International Warns of Health Crisis in Northwest Syria
EU Attempts to Save Iran Nuclear Deal with Last-ditch Effort
Iranian MP: Nine Mln Families Living Below Poverty Line
UN Rapporteur Visits Iran To Gather Information On Human Rights
Ukraine braces for escalated attacks ahead of Russia's V-Day
ICRC Official Sees Hope for More Evacuations from Besieged Mariupol
Taliban Announce Women Must Cover Faces in Public, Say Burqa Is Best
Mystery Mega Yacht Impounded by Italian Authorities
North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile
France’s Macron Sworn in for Second Term as President
France's Macron inaugurated for second five-year term
US Sending Ukraine More Weapons, Dozens Evacuated from Steelworks
Canada/Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant to travel to Egypt and Morocco
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 07-08/2022
Iran Mullahs Escalate Threats Against Jews, Biden Administration Appeases
Mullahs Even More/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/May 07/2022
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden Knows It/Thomas L.
Friedman/The New York Times/May 07/2022
The Next Front in the Ukraine War Will Be on the Black Sea/James
Stavridis/Bloomberg/May 07/2022
Unemployment Is Low. That Doesn’t Mean the Economy Is Fine./Peter Coy/The New
York Times/May 07/2022
Why Russia risks losing Syria to Iran/Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/May 07/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on May 07-08/2022
Lebanese parliamentary elections: Second
phase of expat voting scheduled for Sunday
Njia Houssari/Arab News/May 07, 2022
About 60 percent of registered expats in Arab countries voted Friday
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s embassies in countries with a Sunday weekend have completed
their arrangements for Lebanese expats to cast their votes in parliamentary
elections. There are over 190,000 Lebanese expats
living in the UAE, the US, Australia, and across Europe and Africa who
registered their names with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs months ago, out of
the millions of Lebanese expats around the world. The
first phase of the Lebanese expat voting process in 10 Arab and Muslim countries
ended on Friday night, with a final turnout of nearly 60 percent of registered
voters. Three opposition parties topped the general
electoral scene, the Lebanese Phalange Party (Kataeb), the Progressive Socialist
Party, and the Lebanese Forces party. Hezbollah and the Amal movement dominated
the electoral scene in Iran and Syria, which had the highest turnout.
The turnout of the Sunni voter was remarkable in the Gulf states, specifically
voting in the boxes designated for Beirut's second constituency.
It was impossible to trace the votes for the forces of change or what is known
as the candidates of the revolutionary movements that took to the streets in
2019, as they had several lists which dispersed the expat vote.
Candidates are committed to an electoral silence that lasts until Monday,
according to electoral law. Arab News contacted
sources close to them. One of them said on condition of anonymity: “According to
our sources in the Gulf countries, especially in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar,
and Bahrain, a good percentage of expats voted for the forces of change. Voters
who voted for the revolution's lists posted pictures of their fingers dipped in
blue ink. “Votes in Beirut's second constituency,
specifically by the Sunni voter, were remarkable, although some Sunnis boycotted
the elections in line with the Future Movement's decision not to participate.
Other voters boycotted because they did not find in the traditional parties’
lists anyone who would convince them to re-elect them, specifically the Shiite
voter preferred to boycott the electoral process.”According to the final results
of the voter turnout, Syria had the highest, amounting to 83.79 percent, 73.83
percent in Iran, 66.45 percent in Oman, 65.59 percent in Kuwait, 49.26 percent
in Saudi Arabia, 66.46 percent in Bahrain, 59.63 percent in Jordan, 48.72 in
Qatar, 48 percent in Iraq, and 44 percent in Egypt.
About 18,000 expats voted in these countries, from around 31,000 registered
voters. The general percentage was 58.89 percent. In
2018, the turnout in Arab countries was about 65 percent.
The ballot boxes arrived in Lebanon on Saturday, sealed with red wax and
equipped with a tracking device via DHL, with the exception of the two ballot
boxes from Iran, which Lebanese ambassador Abbas Hassan brought personally by
air as DHL does not deal with Iranian authorities. He said that the two boxes
held 474 votes. At the Masnaa crossing, on Lebanon's
border with Syria, the Ministry of Interior received three ballot boxes
containing 853 votes. The boxes were transferred to
the Banque du Liban for safekeeping until the evening of May 15, after the end
of the electoral process in Lebanon, to be sorted with the rest of the ballot
boxes.
Lebanon election: 36 per cent turnout recorded in first
stage of overseas voting
The National/May 07, 2022
The second and final stage of voting for Lebanese citizens living abroad will be
held on Sunday
More than 11,000 Lebanese expatriates have turned out for the first stage of
overseas voting in the country's May 15 general election.
Out of the 30,929 registered voters in 10 countries where the vote was
held on Friday, 11,268 cast their ballots, a turnout of 36.43 per cent,
Lebanon's National News Agency reported. Lebanese living in Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Oman, Egypt, Qatar and Syria were able to
cast votes at 13 polling stations, mostly set up at their country’s diplomatic
missions. According to figures released by the NNA, the highest voter turnout
was in Iran — 65.73 per cent. Ballot boxes containing votes from the country
arrived at Beirut’s international airport on Saturday and were taken to the
central bank by the security forces, the agency said. The second and final stage
of overseas voting will be held in 49 countries, including the UAE, on Sunday.
More than 240,000 Lebanese have registered to vote abroad, three times the
number for the 2018 election in which the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah group
and its allies won the majority of seats. The vote
this year for the 128-member legislature is the first since the economic
meltdown that began in October 2019 sparked widespread anger at Lebanon's
entrenched political class. The crisis has pushed three quarters of the
population into poverty and forced many Lebanese to emigrate. Overseas voters
make up only 6 per cent of the eligible electorate but could still play an
important role in this election as opposition groups seek to challenge
established parties, according to a report by researchers from The Policy
Initiatives Institute in collaboration with the Arab Reform Initiative. “The
diaspora can also be a key 'influencer' on the voting behaviour of many who are
in Lebanon," the report said."Given the spiralling economic crisis, diaspora
members are increasingly a key lifeline for their families in Lebanon — in some
cases, the only lifeline. "These diaspora members can mobilise and convince
family members to go out and vote."
Miqati pleased with expat voting process,
hopes new MPs will achieve change
Naharnet/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati visited the Foreign Ministry Friday afternoon to
inspect its administration of the expat voting process in the Arab countries and
Iran which had kicked off in the morning. “I was pleased with this tour in which
I examined the electoral process and looked into all statistics,” Miqati said
after the tour. “I congratulate the Foreign Ministry and the diplomatic corps
and I thank the volunteers and I hope the process will be completed
successfully,” the premier added. “We hope the new parliament will carry change
to the Lebanese,” Miqati went on to say.
Expat vote ballots start arriving in Lebanon
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
On Saturday morning, two boxes carrying expat votes arrived at the Beirut
airport from Tehran, escorted by Lebanon's envoy to the Islamic Republic, the
official National News Agency reported. All other ballots will be delivered to
Lebanon by logistics giant DHL, with the exception of those from neighboring
Syria which will be handed over across the border, Foreign Affairs Minister
Abdallah Bou Habib said. Lebanese expatriates had cast their votes for
parliamentary elections in nine Arab countries and in Iran on Friday, with Syria
and Tehran seeing the highest turnout rates, according to Bou Habib. Bou Habib
said nearly 60 percent of the 30,930 voters registered overseas had cast a
ballot, a jump from 56 percent in 2018. The foreign minister had expressed hope
for 70 percent participation earlier Friday but the final count announced after
ballots closed was estimated at 18,225 votes.
About 31,000 Lebanese citizens in 10 countries have registered to vote in
Friday's first phase. On Sunday, nearly 195,000 Lebanese citizens are scheduled
to vote in 48 other countries around the world including the United States,
Canada, Australia, Russia, European Union members states, as well as several
African nations.
Corona - Health Ministry: 102 new Corona cases, two
deaths
NNA/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Saturday the registration of 102 new Coronavirus infections, thus
raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,097,492.
The report added that two deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
Mawlawi encourages Lebanese expatriates to partake
in voting process
NNA/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, sent a message to
the Lebanese expatriates, on the eve of the start of the voting process in
Western and foreign countries, the UAE and Morocco, saying via Twitter:
"Vote...and be poud of Lebanon!"
- Expatriates_Elections_2022#Ministry of Interior
Parliamentary Elections - Foreign Affairs, Interior
Ministries' representatives receive ballot boxes from Qatar
NNA/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Airport - The ballot boxes that arrived on the Qatari plane are now being
handed-over to the representatives of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and the
Interior at Beirut airport, NNA correspondent reported this evening.
Elections are crucial, for they determine Lebanon's
policy for the next four years," Bayram underlines
NNA/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram stressed that the "parliamentary elections are
crucial and decisive since they determine Lebanon’s policy for at least four
years ahead."He, therefore, urged the Lebanese to "head massively to the polls
on May 15 to send a message to the world that Lebanon is capable of managing
itself.”Bayram's words came during a political forum organized today by
Hezbollah Party in the town of Yohmor al-Shaqif, in presence of the town's
dignitaries. The Minister hailed the town's streadfastness and resistance in the
face of the Israeli enemy, asserting that Israel is still placing Lebanon and
its south within its security targetting range. "This calls us to be wary and
alert to the Israeli dangers facing Lebanon and the need to strengthen the bonds
of internal national unity and to rally around the resistance, the army, and the
state and its institutions," he said.Bayram stressed the need to "solidify the
national position and preserve the elements of power" in confrontation of the
Israeli enemy through the "army, people and resistance equation" and "avoiding
differences and rivalries."
Al-Makari announces launch of "Telethon for
Tele-Liban": We will stay with the state even though it is escaping us; our
presence today is an act of...
NNA/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Minister of Information, Ziad Al-Makari, held a press conference on Friday
evening at the "Beirut House - Sodeco" to launch the telethon for Lebanon's TV,
scheduled for June 2022 following Pope Francis's visit to Lebanon. After the
national anthem, Al-Makari gave a speech welcoming the attendees, saying: "You
are here to lay the first cornerstone in the process of rebuilding the image of
the state that resembles us, by rebuilding the image of Tele-Liban..." "It is
not by chance that we chose 'Beirut House' to launch the largest television
project from...We chose it for its symbolism, and we are here to say that we
will stay with the state even though it is escaping from us...Everybody wonders
how we will develop the television station while the state is broke...We simply
reiterate that the human ressources are more important than the capital,” he
added. “The telethon, the date of which we are here today to announce, is not
only to collect funds to rehabilitate the screen in form, but it is also to
collect energies to reconstruct it in terms of content...and the telethon date
will be in June 2022,” Al-Makari concluded.
دراسة باللغة الإنكليزية تلقي الأضواء على تاريخ وحاضر
الهجرة اللبنانية إلى أميركا اللاتينية
A Lebanese online archive chronicles Arab immigration to Latin America
Eduardo Campos Lima/Arab News/May 07/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108533/a-lebanese-online-archive-chronicles-arab-immigration-to-latin-america-%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%ba%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d9%86%d9%83%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%a9/
Most of the migration occurred in the final decades of the 19th century and the
first half of the 20th
Project of Holy Spirit University of Kaslik in Jounieh highlights individual
journeys of the Arab pioneers
SAO PAULO, Brazil: Although an estimated 18 million Latin Americans can trace
their ancestry to the Arab region, little effort has been made to chronicle and
conserve the writings, photographs and news clippings that document the history
of their migration and settlement — until now.
Most of the Arabs who moved to Latin America did so in the final decades of the
19th century and the first half of the 20th, with the majority of them traveling
from Syria and Lebanon in search of fortune and a fresh start far from the
Ottoman Empire.
To collect and highlight the individual journeys of these Arab pioneers and
their contribution to the New World, an archive dedicated to telling their
stories has been created by the Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, also known as
USEK, a private, not-for-profit Catholic university in Jounieh, Lebanon.
Inaugurated at the end of March this year, the collection currently includes
about 200,000 pages from Arab newspapers and magazines, stacks of photographs,
and other illuminating documents that help shed light on the diaspora’s presence
in Latin America.
Brazilian-born Roberto Khatlab, director of USEK’s Latin American Studies and
Cultures Center, or CECAL for short, conceived the project after spending
several years working in the cultural department of the Brazilian embassy in
Beirut and conducting independent research on Lebanese migration to Brazil.
Some of the documents that have been digitized and now are part of USEK’s
archive, including magazines Oriente and A Vinha. (Arab Brazilian Chamber of
Commerce (CCAB) / USEK / Supplied)
“Over the years, I gathered lots of documents concerning that history,” he told
Arab News.
During a trip to Latin America a few years ago, Khatlab realized a wealth of
important historical material was at risk of being lost unless it could be
properly collected and collated.
“Over time, such documents end up in the hands of grandchildren or
great-grandchildren who do not speak Arabic and do not know what to do with
them,” he said.
As a result, many people end up throwing away family collections or donating
them to local libraries, which are not always equipped or qualified to
adequately catalog them.
In addition, newspapers produced by early Arab immigrants were often printed on
cheap, poor-quality paper that does not always stand the test of time, and so
surviving copies can be extremely fragile.
“I have received 100-year-old newspapers which literally disintegrated as we
tried to take them out of the envelope,” said Khatlab.
Syrian-Lebanese immigrants created the first Arabic-language Latin American
newspaper, called Al-Fayha, in 1893 in the Brazilian city of Campinas.
In the local Portuguese language, its name was Mundo Largo, which translates as
Wide World. As the author of several books about Brazil’s historical
relationships with Lebanon and the wider Arab world, Khatlab recognizes the
value of such historical documents for academic study and posterity.
Latin America has close to 18 million people of Arab origin, most of them in
Brazil. (AFP)
“Under the Ottoman Empire, many intellectuals were not able to publish their
ideas in the Arab world at the end of the 19th century,” said Khatlab. “In the
nascent Arab press in countries like Brazil and Argentina, they found the space
they needed.
“Many times, the articles published in the Arab press in Latin America by such
thinkers were sent back to the Arab world and disseminated there in intellectual
and political circles.”
Most of the early Arabic newspapers in Latin America were produced by Syrian or
Lebanese migrants but there were also a number of Egyptian publications. Over
the years, the Arab community launched newspapers that reflected a variety of
viewpoints based around political ideologies, religious creeds, social clubs and
the arts.
“Many poets and writers published works in the Latin American Arab press,” said
Khatlab. “Some of them were renowned in the Arab world, while others
disappeared. But their production and the ideas conveyed in their texts have
great importance to Arabs, even now.”
The archive has attracted the support of institutions across Latin America that
have connections to the Arab community and they have provided small teams who
are helping to collect and digitize materials, using equipment donated by USEK.
INNUMBERS
Estimated Arab population by country
Brazil: 7-12 million
Argentina: 4.5 million
Venezuela: 1.6 million
Mexico: 1.5 million
Colombia: 1.5 million
Chile: 800,000
Source: Atlantic Council
One such institution is the Arab Brazilian Chamber of Commerce, or CCAB for
short, which helped to collate full collections of magazines, including Revista
Oriente (Orient Magazine), one of the most prominent publications produced by
the Arab diaspora in Brazil during the 20th century.
“Different libraries and institutions had partial collections of Oriente,”
Silvia Antibas, the director of CCAB’s cultural department, told Arab News.
“Now, we managed to gather and digitize all of them for the first time.”
The Brazilian team also managed to assemble a collection of the magazine Al-Carmat,
known in Portuguese as A Vinha (The Vineyard). It was edited for many years by a
female Syrian-Brazilian author called Salwa Atlas.
The CCAB has also contributed to the archive an illuminating collection of
photographs that provide a window on the social and domestic lives of the
diaspora through the years.
“The pictures we collected show not only the community’s social events but also
the architecture of houses, the fashion trends of those years, and how
immigrants financially progressed and integrated into Brazilian society over
time,” said Antibas.
The cover of one edition of A Vinha, published for years by Syrian-Brazilian
intellectual Salwa Atlas, who was a pioneer among female intellectuals of the
Syrian-Lebanese community in Brazil. (Clube Homs / USEK / Supplied)
The Jafet family — who ranked among the most illustrious families in Sao Paulo
in the early 20th century — contributed a superb collection of photographs
depicting the palatial homes built around that time by the city’s industrial
bourgeoisie.
“Benjamin Jafet, my great-grandfather, came to Brazil in 1890 and worked as a
‘mascate’ (a word used in Brazil for an Arab door-to-door salesmen) for a few
years in the countryside until he founded his first shop in downtown Sao Paulo,”
Arthur Jafet, a 38-year-old lawyer and businessman, told Arab News.
Over the years, Benjamin and his brothers built one of Brazil’s greatest textile
manufacturers and became wealthy leaders of the Lebanese community in the
country.
As important philanthropists in Sao Paulo, the Jafets helped to fund not only
Arab institutions such as the local Orthodox cathedral, the Syrian-Lebanese
Hospital, and the Mount Lebanon Club, but also publications such as Revista
Oriente.
“Their small palaces pointed to a rather European taste, with visible influences
of the French neoclassical style but also oriental aspects,” said Jafet.
One of the photos in the collection shows Camille Chamoun, Lebanon’s president
between 1952 and 1958, staying at one of the Jafet family’s opulent homes during
a trip to Brazil.
As director of the Institute of Arab Culture in Sao Paulo and an adviser to the
CCAB, Jafet is part of a new generation of Arab Latin Americans taking a renewed
interest in their cultural origins.
Paulo Kehdi is the executive director of Chuf magazine, the in-house publication
of the Mount Lebanon Club. He is among a number of Lebanese community leaders
who launched Lebanity, a movement dedicated to encouraging Lebanese-Brazilians
to rediscover their cultural roots.
“There has been a deliberate effort to reconnect Lebanese-Brazilians to their
motherland, incentivizing them to obtain Lebanese citizenship, to visit the
country and to help it during donation campaigns,” he told Arab News.
The situation is similar in Argentina, which is home to an estimated 3 million
people with Syrian or Lebanese roots.
For several years, Ninawa Daher, a journalist of Lebanese descent, hosted a TV
show in the country devoted to reviving the interest among younger generations
in their Lebanese origins. After her death in a car accident at the age of only
31 in 2011, her mother, Alicia, created the Ninawa Daher Foundation to continue
her legacy, and it has partnered with USEK for the archive project.
“With Ninawa’s contacts, within a very short time we had already been able to
obtain access to several wonderful collections of the community in Argentina,”
Alicia Daher told Arab News.
The team has gathered stacks of newspapers, photographs and other rare
materials, including two books written and autographed by renowned
Lebanese-American writer, poet and visual artist Khalil Gibran.
“The Syrian and Lebanese people had a tremendous cultural impact in Argentina,”
said Daher. “Now, more and more people and institutions are approaching us in
order to offer materials about the immigration.”
In Beirut, meanwhile, Khatlab is hopeful the archive will continue to grow as
the work on it expands to other Latin American countries and to include other
types of documents, such as letters, film footage and even passenger manifests
of the vessels that brought Arabs to the region.
Access to the archive is free and it is open to the general public.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2076336/middle-east
Russia-Backed ‘Eighth Brigade’ Arrests Hezbollah Agent in Southern Syria
Daraa (South Syria) – Riad al-Zain/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7
May, 2022
The Eighth Brigade of the Russian-backed Corps, in the eastern countryside of
Daraa, southern Syria, released the confessions of a Hezbollah operative
admitting to his group plotting and carrying out assassinations in Daraa. Based
in the village of Saida in the eastern countryside of Daraa, Badr al-Shaabin was
videotaped acknowledging that he was coordinating with an officer from the
Syrian air force intelligence to target leaders and officers of the Eighth
Brigade. Al-Shaabin revealed that for each operation he plotted and implemented
was receiving financial rewards that reach up to SYP 3 million.
Abu Mahmoud al-Horani, the official spokesman of the opposition’s Horan Free
group, told Asharq Al-Awsat that a local group affiliated with the Eighth
Brigade had raided al-Shaabin’s residence with the goal of arresting him after
confirming his involvement in assassinations. The Eighth Brigades had planted
two moles in al-Shaabin’s cell to uncover its operations. The cover of one of
the moles was compromised and they were detained by al-Shaabin’s group. Eighth
Brigade leaders then tried to mediate for the release of their spy with al-Shaabin’s
father, but al-Shaabin was still answering the orders of his air force
intelligence employers. Al-Shaabin was ordered to kill the mole. During
mediation efforts, al-Shaabin fired shots injuring both his father and brother.
After hearing rounds of fire, Eighth Brigade units stationed around al-Shaabin’s
residence stormed in and arrested al-Shaabin. Before the arrest was made,
clashes erupted for over two hours. Nidal al-Shaabin, one of al-Shaabin’s
associates, was killed. Al-Shaabin then surrendered, released the Eighth
Brigade’s undercover agent, and taped his confessions. Al-Hourani added that
WhatsApp conversations between al-Shaabin and an assistant in the air force
intelligence services nicknamed “Abu Wael,” showed his involvement in
assassinations for the air force intelligence branch and the Iranian-backed
Lebanese Hezbollah militia, in exchange for money, weapons and ammunition.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on May 07-08/2022
Egypt says 11 troops killed in
militant attack in Sinai
Associated Press/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Egypt's military says at least 11 troops, including an officer, have been killed
in a militant attack in the restive northern part of the Sinai Peninsula. The
military said in a statement that the militants attacked a water pumping station
Saturday east of the Suez Canal. It did not give further details on the
location. The statement said security forces clashes with the attacking
militants. It says at least five other troops were wounded in the attack. Troops
were pursuing the the militants in an isolated area in Sinai, it added. No group
claimed responsibility for Saturday's ambush, one of the deadliest attacks
against Egyptian security forces in recent years. Last week, suspected militants
blew up a natural gas pipeline in Northern Sinai's town of Bir al-Abd, causing a
fire but no casualties. Egypt is battling an Islamic State-led insurgency in the
Sinai that intensified after the military overthrew an elected but divisive
Islamist president in 2013. The militants have carried out scores of attacks,
mainly targeting security forces and Christians. The pace of militant attacks in
Sinai's main theater of operations and elsewhere has slowed to a trickle since
February 2018, when the military launched a massive operation in Sinai as well
as parts of the Nile Delta and deserts along the country's western border with
Libya. The fight against militants in Sinai has largely taken place hidden from
the public eye, with journalists, non-residents and outside observers barred
from the area. The conflict has also been kept at a distance from tourist
resorts at the southern end of the peninsula.
Israeli troops demolish home of Palestinian assailant
Associated Press/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Israeli troops on Saturday demolished the home of a Palestinian man who killed a
Jewish seminary student in a shooting ambush in the occupied West Bank five
months ago, the military said. The demolition took place around dawn in the
village of Silat al-Khartiyeh, with troops swinging sledgehammers to break walls
and setting off explosives. Residents threw stones and firebombs at soldiers who
fired live rounds, the army said. Palestinian medics said three Palestinians
were injured by live fire and others by tear gas inhalation.
Such demolitions have been denounced by rights groups as collective punishment,
and the military suspended the practice for several years, starting in 2005,
after concluding it did not serve as an effective deterrent. The army resumed
demolitions several years ago and now carries them out routinely in response to
attacks in which Palestinians kill Israelis. In the most recent attack, two
Palestinians from the West Bank killed three Israelis and wounded four in a mass
stabbing in the ultra-Orthodox Jewish town of Elad in central Israel on
Thursday. As of Saturday, the suspected assailants, two young men from the town
of Jenin, remained at large. Officials familiar with the investigation said the
attackers arrived in Elad in a vehicle driven by one of the victims and then
killed him. At least one attacker also used an axe, according to officials who
spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss
details with the media. A gag order has been placed on much of the
investigation. At least 18 Israelis have been killed in five attacks since
March, including another stabbing rampage in southern Israel, two shootings in
the Tel Aviv area, and a shooting last weekend in a West Bank settlement. Nearly
30 Palestinians have died in violence — most of whom had carried out attacks or
were involved in confrontations with Israeli forces in the West Bank. But an
unarmed woman and two apparent bystanders were also among those killed, and
rights groups say Israel often uses excessive force. The ongoing conflict plays
out against the backdrop of Israel's occupation, now in its 55th year, of the
West Bank and other lands Palestinians seek for a state. Serious peace talks
collapsed more than a decade ago, while Israel's settlement expansion on
occupied lands has continued unabated. On Friday, Israel said it is set to
advance plans for the construction of 4,000 settler homes in the West Bank. If
approved, it would be the biggest advancement of settlement plans since the
Biden administration took office. The White House is opposed to settlement
growth because it further erodes the possibility of an eventual two-state
solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Earlier this week, Israel's
Supreme Court upheld an expulsion order that would force at least 1,000
Palestinians out of an arid region in the southern West Bank where they say they
have been living for decades. The military declared the area a firing zone in
the early 1980s.
Israelis Openly Call for Assassination of
Hamas Leaders after Latest Stabbing
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Israelis openly called for the assassination of Hamas officials on Friday in
wake of the stabbing attack in the Israeli town of Elad on Thursday. Former
generals, experts and journalists called for the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri,
who is in charge of Hamas' military operations in the occupied West Bank, and
Yehya al-Sinwar, Hamas' top official in the Gaza Strip. They cited their recent
calls to carry out attacks against Israel. Three people were killed in the
stabbing attack, the latest in a series of deadly assaults deep inside Israel in
recent weeks. It came as Israeli-Palestinian tensions were already heightened by
violence at a major holy site in Jerusalem sacred to Jews and Muslims. Israeli
security forces took part in a massive manhunt Friday for two Palestinians
suspected of carrying out the Elad attack. Israeli media released footage of
Sinwar earlier this week as he called on Palestinians in all occupied
territories to carry knives and launch attacks in Jewish towns. Journalist Ron
Ben-Yishai wrote in Israel's Ynet on Friday that there was a clear connection
between Sinwar's latest comments and the Elad attack. He added that "Sinwar and
his men must pay the price" that he said was worth launching a "battle in Gaza"
for. He stressed that Sinwar and Hamas leaders in Gaza must pay a "painful
price" for their incitement, warning that the current wave of operations will
continue. Sinwar must be removed from the scene, and not just punished, so that
others will be deterred, he suggested. Retired general Israel Ziv called for
Sinwar's elimination, even if it led to a new military confrontation. He said
Friday that Sinwar had incited the recent waves of attacks in Israel. Hamas must
be taken by surprise at the right time, he added. MP Itamar Ben Gvir called for
Israel to launch air raids on Sinwar's Gaza home.
"This is how terrorism is eliminated," he said.
Amnesty International Warns of Health Crisis in Northwest Syria
Qamishli, Damascus, Idlib - Kamal Sheikho and
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Amnesty International warned on Thursday of a looming health crisis in northwest
Syria due to a drop in international assistance to hospitals and other medical
facilities, where doctors and medical teams are struggling to operate with low
resources. “This past year’s massive funding drop has immediately translated
into the closure of hospitals and vital services, and has left millions of
Syrians struggling to access medication and other essential health care,” said
Lynn Maalouf, Amnesty International's Deputy Regional Director for the Middle
East and North Africa. Maalouf called on international donors meeting in
Brussels next week to prioritize ensuring adequate funding for health and other
essential services as millions of people face the appalling prospect of being
denied access to health care amid a worsening crisis. Amnesty International
interviewed eight doctors and health workers, four people who recently sought
medical care and four humanitarian aid workers, each of whom described how the
funding cuts have led to a shortage of resources and medication, leading to a
scaling-down of operations and vital services. “Before the funding cuts in
December 2021, we used to receive about 500 outpatients and inpatients a day.
Today, we can receive 10 percent of that number, because we suspended all
services except for basic treatment in the emergency room,” the manager of an
obstetrics and pediatrics hospital said. “Donors have the power to rectify this
devastating situation. Their decisions have a direct impact on people’s access
to healthcare at a time when they are suffering more than ever. What is
happening in north-west Syria right now is a terrible humanitarian crisis,”
Maalouf added. Amnesty’s warning came as the Union of Doctors in the Raqqa
governorate in northern Syria warned that the current health situation poses a
major challenge to the fragile medical sector. Farhad Jumaan, head of the Union
in Raqqa, said the city suffered from a shortage of doctors in some specialties
and lack of them altogether in others. The city has only three ophthalmologists,
three neurosurgeons, one anesthesiologist, and one pathologist, “a very small
number compared to the population density in Raqqa and its countryside,”
according to Jumaan. He also said that the city of Raqqa lacks an oncologist,
forcing patients to go to other Syrian cities for treatment. “Over 600 doctors
are present in Raqqa city and its countryside, which is enough relevant to the
population, but the absence of some specialties impedes the treatment of
specific diseases,” he added.
EU Attempts to Save Iran Nuclear Deal with Last-ditch Effort
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
The European Union is making a last-ditch attempt to save the Iran nuclear deal
and break a deadlock, the Financial Times reported on Saturday. EU foreign
policy chief Josep Borrell told the Financial Times that he was seeking a
“middle way” to end the impasse, which threatens to scupper more than a year of
European diplomatic efforts, Reuters reported. Talks have been on hold since
March, chiefly over Iran's insistence that Washington remove the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Tehran's elite security force, from the US
Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. Borrell is considering a scenario
whereby the designation on the IRGC is lifted, but kept in place on other parts
of the organization, which has several arms and a sprawling business empire, the
FT reported. The foreign policy chief also said he wanted EU negotiator Enrique
Mora to visit Tehran to discuss the issue, but added that Iran “was very much
reluctant” and described the diplomatic push as “the last bullet”, according to
FT. The report also cited Borrell as saying that negotiators would not give Iran
an ultimatum. Reuters reported last week that Iran's clerical rulers, emboldened
by an oil price surge since Russia invaded Ukraine, are in no rush to revive the
2015 nuclear pact with world powers to ease sanctions on its energy-reliant
economy. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran agreed
to limit its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions.
Iranian MP: Nine Mln Families Living Below Poverty Line
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May,
2022
Around nine million Iranian families are living below the poverty line, revealed
an Iranian lawmaker at a time President Ebrahim Raisi is facing multiple
warnings from conservative allies that a hike in prices could lead to possible
popular protests in the country. Mohammad Hassan Asfari, a member of parliament,
blamed all Iranian parties for the current situation facing the country,
criticizing the lifting of government support for the import of food
commodities. “When we want to solve economic woes from people's pockets, poverty
would spike in severity every day,” he said in a press interview. The lawmaker
noted that economic struggles “cannot be solved with promises and words.” He
also downplayed the reported increase of up to 57% in workers’ salaries,
doubting its ability to help resolve the problem of poverty. He revealed that 9
million Iranian families are now living below the poverty line, adding that “the
majority of families are waiting to receive aid from the Imam Committee and the
Welfare Organization.” Meanwhile, the Student Basij, a subgrouping of the Basij
militia that is itself a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC),
issued a stark warning to hardline President Raisi. “We strongly inform you that
society is not prepared for such a sudden increase in prices at this level,” the
group said in a statement on Thursday. “The turmoil in the markets in recent
weeks, and especially the shocking decision by the Agriculture Ministry to
increase the price of flour for industrial producers, could have social
consequences and lead to unrest.”Earlier this week, well-informed Iranian
sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the country's top authorities issued “secret
directives” to the security services and the judiciary to be on alert for the
next three months. The orders come in anticipation of public protests with the
rise in food prices and fears of the collapse of the Vienna nuclear deal
negotiations.
UN Rapporteur Visits Iran To Gather Information On
Human Rights
Nicosia - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Human rights groups on Friday warned Tehran will try to use an upcoming visit to
Iran by a UN expert in order to avoid accountability for its human rights
violations. Alena Douhan, the special rapporteur focused on the impact of
unilateral sanctions, is scheduled to visit to Iran from May 7 to 18 to discuss
human rights issues. It will be the first such visit to the country by a special
rapporteur since 2005. The UN Human Rights Council established the Special
Rapporteur’s mandate in September 2014 following concerns by the UN human rights
system and the international community about the negative impact of unilateral
sanctions on the human rights of the civilian populations around the world. “I
am looking forward to engaging with the Government and non-governmental
counterparts, national and international, in a spirit of dialogue, cooperation
and impartiality, with the view to gather first-hand information on the impact
of unilateral coercive measures on the full realization of all human rights in
the country,” Douhan said according to a UN press release. She added that her
visit will aim at covering all walks of life and sectors affected by such
measures, including secondary sanctions and sanctions over-compliance. Douhan’s
mission comes during a stalemate in talks between Iran and world powers to
revive a 2015 agreement which gave Iran sanctions relief in return for curbs on
its nuclear program. In 2018 then-US president Donald Trump withdrew from the
deal and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran, which then began rolling back its
own commitments. But a group of 11 human rights groups warned in a statement
Friday that Iran’s government will try to “instrumentalize” the visit “in a
cynical attempt to deflect attention from its well-documented record of human
rights violations.” The statement was signed by groups including United for
Iran, Article 19 and Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. “The visit comes
after 17 years of denial of access to any of the 14 UN human rights monitors
that have requested to visit the country,” it said. The statement added that by
inviting the only expert whose mandate is to look at external actors’ liability
for rights violations in the country, Iranian authorities exploit this visit in
an inconspicuous attempt to blunt scrutiny of its record of non-cooperation with
the UN human rights system. Douhan said she will pay particular attention to the
adverse effects on the most vulnerable segments of society, including in the
current context of the COVID-19 pandemic. For their part, the rights groups said
Iran has a history of blatant rights violations, and that legitimate concern
over the impact of sanctions cannot and must not overshadow the Iranian
authorities’ responsibility for failing to ensure access to health, work,
education, internet and adequate living standards for all in Iran. “The
international community must not be fooled, and Iran should not be rewarded for
its attempt to avoid accountability,” they added.
Ukraine braces for escalated attacks ahead of Russia's
V-Day
Associated Press/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
The war in Ukraine wracked the country's southern coast Saturday as Russian
forces fired cruise missiles at the city of Odesa and bombarded a steel mill
housing Ukrainian civilians and fighters, hoping to complete their conquest of
the port of Mariupol in time for Victory Day celebrations.
However, in a sign of the unexpectedly effective defense that has sustained the
fighting into its 11th week, Ukraine's military flattened Russian positions on a
Black Sea island that was captured in the war's first days and has become a
symbol of Ukrainian resistance.
Western military analysts said a Ukrainian counter-offensive also was advancing
around the nation's second-largest city, Kharkiv, even as it remained a key
target of Russian shelling. The Ukrainian army said it retook control of five
villages and part of a sixth near hotly contested Kharkiv.
As Russia's Monday holiday commemorating Nazi Germany's defeat in World War II
approached, cities across Ukraine prepared for an expected increase in Russian
attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged residents numbed by more
than 10 weeks of war to heed air raid warnings.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Saturday that Zelenskyy and his
people "embody the spirit of those who prevalied during the Second World War."
He accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of trying "to twist history to
attempt to justify his unprovoked and brutal war against Ukraine."
"As war again rages in Europe, we must increase our resolve to resist those who
now seek to manipulate historical memory in order to advance their own
ambitions," Blinken said in a statement issued as the United States and United
Kingdom marked the Allied victory in Europe 77 years ago.
The most intense battles in recent days have befallen eastern Ukraine, where the
two sides are entrenched in a fierce race to capture or reclaim territory.
Moscow's offensive in eastern Ukraine has focused on claiming the industrial
Donbas region, where Russia-backed separatists have been fighting since 2014 and
occupy some areas. Moscow's also has sought to sweep across southern Ukraine to
both cut off the country from the sea and to connect its territory to the
breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova, long home to Russian troops. But it
has struggled to achieve those objectives.
On Saturday, six Russian cruise missiles fired from aircraft hit the region of
Odesa, where authorities have a curfew in place until Tuesday morning. Videos
posted on social media showed thick black smoke rising over Odesa with sirens
wailing in the background.
Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press showed Ukraine targeting
Russian-held Snake Island in a bid to impede Russia's efforts to control the
Black Sea. A satellite image taken early Saturday by Planet Labs PBC showed what
appeared to be a Serna-class landing craft against the island's northern beach.
The image corresponds with a Ukrainian military video showing a drone striking
the Russian vessel, engulfing it in flames. Snake Island, located some 35
kilometers (20 miles) off the coast, figured in a memorable incident early in
the war when Ukrainian border guards stationed there defied Russian orders to
surrender, purportedly using colorful language.
Against that backdrop, Ukrainian fighters made a final stand to prevent a
complete takeover of Mariupol. Securing the strategically important Sea of Azov
port would give Moscow a land bridge to the Crimea Peninsula, which Russia
annexed from Ukraine during a 2014 invasion.
New satellite photos analyzed by the AP showed vast devastation at a sprawling
seaside steel mill that is the last corner of Ukrainian resistance in the city.
Buildings at the Azovstal plant, including one under which hundreds of fighters
and civilians are likely hiding, had large, gaping holes in the roof, according
to the images shot Friday by Planet Labs PBC.
The bombardment of the steel mill intensified in recent days despite a Russian
pledge for a temporary cease-fire to allow civilians inside to escape. Russia
has used mortars, artillery, truck-mounted rocket systems, aerial bombardment
and shelling from sea to target the facility. Rescuers sought to evacuate more
civilians on Saturday after a week of on-and-off convoys to get people out of
Mariupol. Dozens of civilians were delivered Friday to the care of United
Nations and International Committee of the Red Cross representatives, Russian
and Ukrainian officials confirmed.
The latest evacuees followed roughly 500 others who were allowed to leave the
plant and other parts of the city in recent days.
Ukrainian fighters at the Azovstal mill have repeatedly refused to surrender but
acknowledged Saturday using white flags to help evacuate civilians from the
site. The fighters issued a statement via social media saying both they and the
Russians have used a white flag system to halt fighting in order to get
civilians out.
They said the Saturday incident marked the fourth time they raised the flags for
that purpose. The statement followed comments attributed to a commander on the
Russian side there suggesting the Ukrainians were using the white flag for
negotiations with their attackers. The Ukrainian government has called on
international organizations to also help evacuate the fighters defending the
plant. By Russia's most recent estimate, roughly 2,000 Ukrainian fighters
remained at the Azovstal steelworks. They have repeatedly refused to surrender.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said "influential states" were involved
in efforts to rescue the soldiers, although he did not mention any by name.
"We are also working on diplomatic options to save our troops who are still at
Azovstal," he said in his nightly video address early Saturday.
The relief of those who have been evacuated was tempered by the memory of those
still left behind. "They need our help badly," said Serhii Kuzmenko, 31, who
fled with his wife, 8-yer-old daughter and four others from their bunker,
leaving behind another 30. "We need to get them out." While they pounded away at
the plant, Russian forces struggled to make significant gains elsewhere nearly 2
1/2 months into a ruinous war that has killed thousands of people, forced
millions to flee Ukraine and flattened large swaths of some cities. Kharkiv,
which was the first Soviet capital in Ukraine and had a pre-war population of
about 1.4 million, remained a key target of Russian shelling in the northeast.
But Western military analysts said Ukrainian forces were making progress in
securing positions around the city. A Washington-based think tank, the Institute
for the Study of War, said in its most recent assessment that Ukraine's military
may be able to push Russian forces "out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the
coming days," providing a respite for the city and an opportunity to build the
defenders' momentum "into a successful, broader counteroffensive."
In other developments, a Russian missile on Saturday destroyed a Ukrainian
national museum dedicated to the life and work of an 18th-century philosopher,
the local council said. It posted photographs on Facebook showing the Gregory
Skovoroda museum engulfed in flames. As an indication of his importance to
Ukraine's cultural heritage, Skovoroda's likeness adorns a Ukrainian banknote.
The museum in Skovorodynivka lies near the Russian border in the Kharkiv region
where fighting has been fierce.
Zelenskyy said in his nightly address that the "extraordinary strength of the
Ukrainian position" lies in all the countries of the free world understanding
what is at stake in the ruinous war. "We are defending ourselves against an
onslaught of tyranny that wants to destroy everything that freedom gives to
people and states," the Ukrainian leader said. "And such a struggle, for freedom
and against tyranny, is fully comprehensible for any society, in any corner of
the globe." At the United Nations in New York, the U.N. Security Council on
Friday unanimously adopted its first statement on Ukraine, expressing "strong
support" for the secretary general's efforts to find a peaceful solution to the
10-week old "dispute." Talks to end the war have stalled. Zelenskyy said Friday
that he would be open to negotiations with Russia, but only if Moscow withdraws
its forces to pre-invasion positions. "In that situation, we will be able to
start discussing things normally," Zelenskyy told a meeting at London's Chatham
House think tank. Ukraine could then use "diplomatic channels" to regain its
territory, he said.
ICRC Official Sees Hope for More Evacuations from Besieged Mariupol
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) hopes the successful
evacuation of civilians from a besieged steel plant in the Ukrainian city of
Mariupol will pave the way for more people to get out of the complex, a senior
ICRC official said. "Experience shows that a successful action helps further
evacuations because now both sides have seen that it works. We hope that we can
now build on this minimum of trust," Dominik Stillhart, the ICRC's director of
operations, told Swiss newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung in an interview published
on Saturday. The ICRC and the United Nations have been working to get civilians
out from the Azovstal steel plant, which is also the last holdout for remaining
Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol, a southern port city that has been reduced to
ruins by weeks of Russian bombardment. Stillhart said that it was "extremely
frustrating" that it took weeks of painstaking work to get Russian and Ukrainian
authorities on board and to work out logistic details so that combatants at
every checkpoint knew when buses would drive by. Ukraine said 50 civilians were
evacuated on Friday, although it accused Russia of violating a truce intended to
allow dozens more still trapped underground to depart. Stillhart painted a dark
picture of what lay ahead in Ukraine given the destruction wrought by the
shelling of cities. "You know the pictures from Mariupol: such apocalyptic
scenarios could also threaten other cities, such as Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk or
Odesa. In talks with the parties to the conflict, we express our concern about
this kind of warfare. Unfortunately, I see no reason to hope that this conflict
will soon be over." Russia has denied targeting civilians in what it calls a
"special operation" launched on Feb. 24 to disarm Ukraine and protect it from
fascists. Ukraine and the West say the fascist allegation is baseless and that
the war is an unprovoked act of aggression. Stillhart said the ICRC had little
information about people being moved from eastern Ukraine to Russia. "We can
assume that Russia - like almost every warring party - is carrying out so-called
screenings: fighters are being arrested, probably also civilians who have worked
for the Ukrainian authorities. Both groups are protected under international
law, so they may not be tortured or killed, for example. But is this being
respected, where do these people end up afterwards? We do not know."
Taliban Announce Women Must Cover Faces in Public, Say Burqa Is Best
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
The Taliban on Saturday ruled Afghan women must cover their faces, according to
a decree from the group's supreme leader, an escalation of growing restrictions
on women in public that is drawing a backlash from the international community
and many Afghans. A spokesman for the Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and
the Prevention of Vice read the decree from the group's supreme leader
Hibatullah Akhundzada at a press conference in Kabul, saying that a woman's
father or closest male relative would be visited and eventually imprisoned or
fired from government jobs if she did not cover her face outside the home. They
added the ideal face covering was the all-encompassing blue burqa, which became
a global symbol of the Taliban's previous hardline regime from 1996 until 2001.
Most women in Afghanistan wear a headscarf for religious reasons, but many in
urban areas such as Kabul do not cover their faces. The group has faced intense
pushback, led by Western governments but joined by some religious scholars and
Islamic countries for their growing limits on women's rights. A surprise U-turn
in March in which the group shuttered girls' high schools on the morning they
were due to open drew the ire of the international community and prompted the
United States to cancel planned meetings on easing country's financial crisis.
Washington and other nations have cut development aid and enforced strict
sanctions on the banking system, since the Taliban took over in August, pushing
the country towards economic ruin. The Taliban has said it has changed since it
last ruled when it banned girls' education or women leaving the house without a
male relative and women were required to wear cover their faces. However, in
recent months the administration has increased its restrictions on women
including rules limiting their travel without a male chaperone and banning men
and women from visiting parks at the same time.
Mystery Mega Yacht Impounded by Italian Authorities
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
The Italian authorities on Friday impounded a mega yacht at the center of a
mystery over its ownership as speculation swirled it might even belong to the
Russian president. "Scheherazade", worth an estimated $700 million, has been the
subject of a probe into its ownership by Italy's financial police, AFP said. The
Italian probe has helped "establish significant economic and business links
between the person who officially possesses the Scheherazade and eminent people
in the Russian government," as well as Russian figures sanctioned by the West
following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Italian ministry of economy and
finance said in a statement. Following the probe, "the minister of Economy and
Finance, Daniele Franco, has signed a decree impounding" the yacht, the
statement added. It had been berthed for several months for maintenance work at
a shipyard at the Marina di Carrara, within the western seaside town of Massa.
But the yacht was back on the water and seemed about to set sail on Friday, an
AFP photographer said before the Italian government statement was issued. But
the mystery remains unresolved: who does "Scheherazade" belong to? A Russian
oligarch? Vladimir Putin? Built by Germany's Luerssen in 2020, the 140-meter
yacht features two helipads, a swimming pool and a movie theatre, according to
the SuperYachtFan website, which researches yachts and their owners. Italian
police had said they were doing their best to identify the owner. "It's not
always easy to attribute ownership" of a yacht, a source close to the Italian
probe told AFP in late March. The same source said earlier Friday there was
"nothing new" in the investigation. Researchers at the anti-corruption
foundation of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny link the yacht to Putin. They
cited a crew list in their possession that included several members of Russia's
federal protective service, charged with Putin's security. But the Italian Sea
Group said in a statement the yacht was "not attributable to the property of
Russian President Vladimir Putin". The shipyard's owner said its assessment was
based on "the documentation in its possession and following the findings of the
checks carried out by the relevant authorities".
North Korea Fires Unidentified Projectile
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
North Korea fired an unidentified projectile into waters off its east coast
Saturday, the South Korean military's Joint Chiefs of Staff said. The latest
launch comes just three days after Pyongyang last fired a missile, as warnings
grow that it may conduct a nuclear test, AFP said. "North Korea fires at least
one projectile into East Sea," Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, referring to
the Sea of Japan. Japan's coast guard, citing information from its Defense
Ministry, said that North Korea had launched an object "likely to be a ballistic
missile," and warned its vessels to be aware. The launch is likely the
nuclear-armed country's 15th weapons test so far this year. On Wednesday, North
Korea test-fired what Seoul and Tokyo said was a ballistic missile, although
Pyongyang's state media -- which typically report on weapons tests -- did not
comment on the event. Despite biting international sanctions over its weapons
programs, North Korea has dramatically ramped up testing this year while
ignoring the United States' offers of talks. The Saturday test comes just a few
days before South Korea's new hawkish President Yoon Suk-yeol is inaugurated on
Tuesday.
France’s Macron Sworn in for Second Term as President
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
Emmanuel Macron was sworn in for his second term as France's president on
Saturday at a ceremony at the Elysee Palace, followed by the firing of canons at
the Invalides gardens. In a country where presidents rarely get re-elected,
Macron won 58.5% of the votes in the second round against the far-right's Marine
Le Pen, despite strong opposition to his pro-business policies and a proposal to
raise the retirement age. In a short speech, he spoke of the need to innovate at
a time of unprecedented challenges for the world and for France, and said his
second term would be "new" and not merely a continuation of the first. "We need
to invent a new method together, far from tired traditions and routines, with
which we can build a new productive, social and ecological contract," he said,
promising to act with "respect" and "consideration". He highlighted the threat
posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and global environmental concerns. Among
the 500 guests present were former presidents Francois Hollande and Nicolas
Sarkozy, former prime ministers Edouard Philippe, Manuel Valls, Alain Juppe and
Jean-Pierre Raffarin, as well as religious leaders and other state figures.
Macron's inauguration marks the end of one electoral campaign and the opening of
another - for legislative elections in June. A newly united political left - a
coalition formed between hard-left La France Insoumise, the Parti Socialiste,
the Greens and the Communist Party - is hoping to deprive Macron of a majority
in parliament. The right-wing Les Republicains was also due to hold a national
council meeting on Saturday. Macron will visit the European Parliament in
Strasbourg on for "Europe Day" on Monday. Later in the week, for the first trip
abroad since his inauguration, he heads to Berlin to meet German Chancellor Olaf
Scholz. Macron, 44, is the first president who does not belong to a coalition
government to be re-elected since the formation of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
Macron's new term formally begins on the evening of May 13 and his prime
minister, Jean Castex, is still in office.
France's Macron inaugurated for second five-year term
Associated Press/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
President Emmanuel Macron was inaugurated for a second term on Saturday, vowing
to first take action to avoid any further escalation of Russia's war in Ukraine
before going on to focus on promoting France and Europe on the world stage.
Macron was reelected for five years on April 24 in a runoff that saw him beat
out far-right rival Marine Le Pen. "The time ahead will be that of resolute
action for France and for Europe," Macron said. He promised to "first take
action to avoid any escalation following Russia's aggression in Ukraine."Macron
vowed to "take action relentlessly with a goal, which is to be a more
independent nation, to live better and to build our own French and European
responses to the century's challenges."Macron also promised to find a "fair
method" to govern the country and ease social tensions by making the government
and parliament work together with unions, associations and other people from the
political, economic, social and cultural world. "I will have only one compass:
serving," Macron said, concluding his speech. "Serving our country ... serving
our fellow citizens ... serving our children and our youth ... to whom I pledge
to hand down a more liveable planet and a more living and stronger France."For a
president at ease speaking for hours on end, Macron's speech was surprisingly
short — and handwritten. But afterwards, he took his time to shake hands,
exchange cheek kisses and chat individually with scores of guests. While he
presided over strict lockdowns and coronavirus vaccine mandates as the pandemic
swept through France, most restrictions have now been lifted and there was no
sign of masks or social distancing at the inauguration. The event seemed
unusually child-friendly for French presidential ceremonies, with several
dignitaries bringing their children — and at least two in baby strollers.
Macron, 44, has no children of his own but has step-children and grandchildren,
some of whom were there. At his arrival in the reception hall of the Elysee,
Macron winked at his wife, Brigitte Macron. About 500 guests were invited to the
ceremony. They came primarily from the world of politics, though also included
actors, health care workers, military officers and former Presidents Francois
Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy. Most of those who received a coveted invite to the
event were white men in suits, despite a growing push for diversity in French
politics. Hollande, a Socialist who ran France from 2012 to 2017, said "I think
there will be considerable hardship," listing the war in Ukraine, rising prices,
the decreasing purchasing power and climate-related issues.
"It means the responses will need to be up to the challenges," he said. Hollande
noted Macron's message that he will seek new methods to govern as a good point,
"not only because it will be a very difficult period, but also because France is
very divided."The president of the Constitutional Council read out the results
of the election and Macron was given the necklace of Grand Master of the Legion
of Honor, France's highest distinction, before making his speech. He then went
to the gardens of the Elysee palace and listened to 21 cannon shots being fired
from the Invalides plaza to mark the event, in line with tradition. Macron also
reviewed the military. Troops present at the ceremony included part of the crew
of the Monge, the French navy's second-biggest ship that is key to France's
nuclear deterrent. It was notably used for the tests of France's nuclear-capable
submarine-launched M51 missiles. The symbol can be seen as a show of force at
times when France is deeply involved in efforts to stop Russia's war against
Ukraine, including via sending truck-mounted cannons and other heavy weapons.
Macron's second term will formally start on May 14. Macron is expected to
appoint soon a new government, ahead of the key parliamentary election to be
held in June. The vote will decide who controls a majority of the 577 seats at
the National Assembly.
Macron hopes his party and centrist allies will be able to win big in the wake
of the presidential election. They currently hold over 300 seats at the
Assembly. This week, long-divided left-wing parties agreed to join forces in a
new coalition in efforts to counter Macron's strategy and seek victory in the
parliamentary election. The Socialist Party joined the Greens and the Communist
Party in hooking their wagon to the France Unbowed party of hard-left leader
Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
US Sending Ukraine More Weapons, Dozens Evacuated from Steelworks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 7 May, 2022
US President Joe Biden announced another package of military assistance for
Ukraine, as dozens of civilians were evacuated from Mariupol's besieged
steelworks, the last pocket of resistance against Russian troops in the port
city. Worth $150 million, the latest security assistance would include artillery
munitions and radars, Biden said, as the country braces for fresh bombardment by
Moscow's forces ahead of May 9, the day Russia celebrates the Soviet victory
over the Nazis in World War II. A senior US official said the aid included
counter-artillery radars used for detecting the source of enemy fire as well as
electronic jamming equipment, AFP said. Friday's new batch brings the total
value of US weaponry sent to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began to $3.8
billion. The president urged Congress to further approve a huge $33 billion
package, including $20 billion in military aid, "to strengthen Ukraine on the
battlefield and at the negotiating table." The Pentagon meanwhile denied reports
it helped Ukrainian forces sink the Russian warship Moskva in the Black Sea last
month. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the US had "no prior knowledge" of the
plan to strike the ship, which sank leaving a still-unclear number of Russian
sailors dead or missing. While providing Ukraine with military aid, the United
States has sought to limit knowledge of the full extent of its assistance to
avoid provoking Russia into a broader conflict beyond Ukraine. Biden, other G7
leaders, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky are to meet virtually on
Sunday to discuss Western support for Kyiv.
Azovstal evacuation
On Friday Zelensky said "diplomatic options" were also under way to rescue
Ukrainian soldiers from the Mariupol steelworks, as civilian evacuations
continued. The Russian defense ministry said 50 people were evacuated from the
site, including 11 children. It added they were handed over to the UN and Red
Cross, which are assisting in the operation, and that the "humanitarian
operation" would continue on Saturday.About 200 civilians, including children,
are estimated to still be trapped in the Soviet-era tunnels and bunkers beneath
the sprawling Azovstal factory, along with a group of Ukrainian soldiers making
their last stand. Russia announced a daytime ceasefire at the plant for three
days starting Thursday but the Ukrainian army said Russian "assault operations"
had continued by ground and by air. Ukraine's Azov battalion, leading the
defense at Azovstal, said one Ukrainian fighter had been killed and six wounded
when Russian forces opened fire during an attempt to evacuate people by car.
Azov battalion leader Andriy Biletsky wrote on Telegram that the situation at
the plant was critical.
"The shelling does not stop. Every minute of waiting is costing the lives of
civilians, soldiers, and the wounded."
May 9 fears
Ten weeks into a war that has killed thousands, destroyed cities and uprooted
more than 13 million people, defeating the resistance at Azovstal and taking
full control of strategically located Mariupol would be a major win for Moscow.
It would also be a symbolic success ahead of May 9, when Russia marks the
anniversary of its 1945 defeat of Nazi Germany. Ukrainian officials believe
Moscow is planning a May 9 military parade in Mariupol, though the Kremlin has
denied any such plans. Officials have also said they expect the anniversary will
coincide with an escalation of the war throughout the country. "In the coming
days, there is a high probability of rocket fire in all regions of Ukraine,"
mayor of Kyiv Vitali Klitschko said in a statement on social media. "Be careful
and follow the rules of security in wartime."The eastern city of Odessa will
also impose a longer curfew on May 8-9, its mayor said, as will Poltava in the
country's center. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki noted that the G7
meeting will come a day before "Victory Day" and the leaders will demonstrate
"unity in our collective response". "While (Russian President Vladimir Putin)
expected to be marching through the streets of Kyiv, that's obviously not what's
going to happen," Psaki said.
Russia to remain 'forever'
Since failing to take Kyiv early on in the war, Russia has refocused its
offensive on the south and east of Ukraine. Taking full control of Mariupol
would allow Moscow to create a land bridge between the Crimean peninsula, which
it annexed in 2014, and separatist, pro-Russian regions in the east. In those
regions, separatists said they had removed Ukrainian and English language
traffic signs for Mariupol and replaced them with Russian ones. Locals want to
see proof that "Russia has come back here forever," said Denis Pushilin, head of
the breakaway region of Donetsk. In neighboring Lugansk, Ukrainian officials
said on Friday that Russian forces had almost encircled Severodonetsk -- the
easternmost city still held by Kyiv -- and are trying to storm it. Kherson in
the south remains the only significant city Russia has managed to capture since
the war began. A senior official from the Russian parliament visiting the city
on Friday also emphasized that Russia would remain in southern Ukraine
"forever.""There should be no doubt about this. There will be no return to the
past," Andrey Turchak said.
'Peaceful solution'
On Friday, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted its first declaration on
Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24. It backed Secretary General Antonio
Guterres's efforts to find a "peaceful solution" to the war but stopped short of
supporting a mediation effort led by him. Russia then vetoed a resolution
condemning the invasion and asking Moscow to move its army back to Russian soil.
Ukraine's Western allies have supported Kyiv with financial and military
assistance, and have slapped unprecedented sanctions on Russia. As European
countries have sought to clamp down on Russian assets overseas, Italian
authorities impounded a mega yacht as speculation swirled it might even belong
to the Russian president. "Scheherazade", worth an estimated $700 million, has
been the subject of a probe into its ownership by Italy's financial police,
which has helped "establish significant economic and business links" between the
ship's owner and "eminent people in the Russian government". Researchers at the
anti-corruption foundation of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny have linked the
yacht to Putin. But the European Commission's proposal that all 27 EU members
gradually ban Russian oil imports -- a move that would have been its toughest
yet -- was dealt a blow on Friday when Hungary said it crossed a red line and
should be sent back.
Canada/Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant to travel to Egypt
and Morocco
May 7, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that
the Honourable Robert Oliphant, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of
Foreign Affairs, will visit Egypt and Morocco from May 8 to 12, 2022.
In Cairo, Egypt, Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant will meet with government
officials, as well as local and regional partners, to discuss climate change,
food security, regional peace and security and human rights.
In Marrakesh and Rabat, Morocco, Parliamentary Secretary Oliphant will engage
with government officials on trade, climate change and peace and security, as
well as commemorate 60 years of strong bilateral relations between Canada and
Morocco. He will also attend a ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition
against Daesh, where members will review the Coalition’s progress and discuss
the threat posed by Daesh in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, as well as in Africa.
Quotes
“Egypt and Morocco are important partners and friends of Canada. I look forward
to discussing our shared priorities and to further strengthening our bilateral
collaboration for the benefit of our citizens and countries.”
- Robert Oliphant, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
Egypt is one of Canada’s largest trading partners in the Middle East and Africa.
The bilateral commercial relations between the countries are broad in scope: in
2021, two-way merchandise trade was valued at $1.9 billion.
In 2021, Morocco was Canada’s fourth-largest bilateral merchandise trading
partner in Africa, with bilateral merchandise trade reaching a value of over
$1.14 billion.
Canada is a committed member of the Global Coalition against Daesh. Since 2016,
Canada has contributed over $4 billion in military, security, stabilization,
humanitarian and development assistance through the Middle East Strategy in
response to the crises in Syria and Iraq.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on May 07-08/2022
د. ماجد رفي زاده: ملالي إيران يصعدون التهديدات ضد اليهود
في حين أن ادارة بايدن مستمرة بالتملق لملالي إيران واسترضائهم
Iran Mullahs Escalate Threats Against Jews, Biden Administration Appeases
Mullahs Even More
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/May 07/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/108530/dr-majid-rafizadeh-iran-mullahs-escalate-threats-against-jews-biden-administration-appeases-mullahs-even-more-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85/
These US rewards to Iran for terrorism, destabilizing the region, treating its
own people with brutality and cheating on 2015 nuclear deal would significantly
increase Iran's revenues; these, in turn, will doubtless be funneled into the
pockets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Quds Force and
their militia and terror groups including Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah for
still more expansionism and terror.
Additionally, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi openly called for the destruction
of Israel as he addressed anti-Israeli rallies: "This great movement that we are
witnessing today in the form of protests is a symbol of the solidarity of the
Muslim people that will lead to the destruction of the Zionist regime."
Since the Biden administration assumed office, it has pursued the maximum
appeasement policy with the ruling mullahs of Iran.
Instead of standing with its staunch allies in the Middle East, the Biden
administration appears determined to stand with the Iranian regime. The ruling
mullahs nonetheless appear intent on taking over their oil-rich neighbors, and
eliminating Israel and the United States -- all as America seems to imagine,
falsely, that it can bribe its way into being spared.
These US rewards to Iran for terrorism, destabilizing the region, treating its
own people with brutality and cheating on 2015 nuclear deal would significantly
increase Iran's revenues; these, in turn, will doubtless be funneled into the
pockets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Quds Force and their
militia and terror groups including Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah for still
more expansionism and terror. Pictured: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi delivers
a speech in Tehran, on January 3, 2022.
When it to comes to the Iranian regime, all the Biden administration seems to
care about is appeasing the ruling mullahs, reaching a weak nuclear deal with
the Islamic Republic, and enhancing the global legitimacy of a country that the
US itself called "the world's worst state sponsor of terrorism."
These US rewards to Iran for terrorism, destabilizing the region, treating its
own people with brutality and cheating on 2015 nuclear deal would significantly
increase Iran's revenues; these, in turn, will doubtless be funneled into the
pockets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Quds Force and
their militia and terror groups including Hamas, the Houthis and Hezbollah for
still more expansionism and terror.
Since the Biden administration assumed office, it has pursued the maximum
appeasement policy with the ruling mullahs of Iran. These acts have included
removing one of Tehran's terrorist proxy groups, the Houthis, from the List of
Foreign Terrorist Organizations, as well as lifting sanctions on Iranian
entities involved in missile production, the Mammut Industrial Group and its
subsidiary Mammut Diesel, which had been sanctioned by the Trump administration.
Appeasement also included turning a blind eye to the theocratic establishment's
military adventurism in the region, such as launching barrages of missiles in
Iraq where US troops were stationed; sending precision guided missiles to Syria,
and smuggling weapons to the Houthis in Yemen.
How has the Iranian regime responded to America's attempts at propitiation? By
launching more missiles near US bases in Iraq and by ratcheting up its threats
against US allies in the Middle East, primarily Israel. Only last week, at the
end of April, reports surfaced that Israel's Mossad has recently foiled
terrorist attempts by the Iranian regime to assassinate an Israeli diplomat who
works at the Israeli consulate in Istanbul, as well as an American General
stationed in Germany and a journalist in France. The names of the individuals
targeted were not revealed.
Also late last month, Mansour Rasouli, a member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC), was arrested in a European country in relation to the
planned terrorist attack. He was reportedly a member of Unit 840 of the Quds
Force, an elite branch of one of the five militias of the IRGC, and the one that
conducts foreign operations to export the mullahs' Islamic revolution abroad.
Rasouli reportedly received $150,000 to prepare the assassinations, and was
promised an additional $1 million after he killed the three targets. It is at
the moment unclear if the Biden administration is considering removing the IRGC,
designated as a terrorist organization by the Trump administration, from the
List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The Biden administration might be
retaining just the Quds Force on the list, an act that that would create a
grievously fictitious loophole that the ruling Iranian regime will be sure to
exploit to the fullest.
Recently, Israel's intelligence services foiled an assassination attempt against
an Israeli businessman, Yair Geller, in Turkey. The Iranian cell, consisting of
nine individuals, was reportedly run by Yassin Tahermkandi, age 53, an
Iranian-based intelligence officer, and Saleh Mushtag Bhighus, his Turkish
counterpart. Iran's regime also targets foreign political leaders and diplomats
whom the regime opposes, and recently has called for the assassination of
high-level American officials . The Iranian regime apparently also has "target
packages," which presumably include foreign citizens, residents who are human
rights defenders, critics of the Iranian leaders, political activists, and
dissidents.
On April 29, 2022, the ruling mullahs of Iran and Hezbollah also held "al-Quds
Day," or Jerusalem Day, where demonstrators chant "Death to Israel" and "Death
to America" while the Iranian regime shows support for Palestinians and promotes
the destruction of the Jewish state. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah,
one of Iran's proxy militias, praised recent deadly rocket attacks against
Israel coming from Gaza and Lebanon. He also threatened other Arab nations that
they will be attacked by Iran if they allow Israel to use their territory as a
military base.
Additionally, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi openly called for the destruction
of Israel as he addressed anti-Israeli rallies:
"This great movement that we are witnessing today in the form of protests is a
symbol of the solidarity of the Muslim people that will lead to the destruction
of the Zionist regime."
Other high level officials joined him, including General Esmail Ghaani, the head
of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps's expeditionary force, as well as the
Quds Force, who announced his support for any group that will attack Israel. "We
support any front that is formed against this criminal regime," he announced,
"and we will support any community that is ready to fight this criminal regime".
IRGC commander General Hossein Salami stated that his government will not give
up until it reaches its goal of destroying Israel:
"You know we are people of action and reaction. Our answers are painful and we
set the stage for our goals. We will not give up on you, wait; You have seen our
answers."
And on occasion of the recent Holocaust Remembrance Day, the Iranian regime's
state-controlled daily newspaper Kayhan published a front-page article praising
Hitler and bashing the Jews, which stated:
"[T]he logic that Hitler showed by expelling them [the Jews] from Germany is
that he is smarter and more courageous than all current European leaders".
The editor-in-chief of Kayhan, Hossein Shariatmadari, is considered to be close
advisor and representative of the Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
European nations, it adds, have "endorsed the myth of the Holocaust" because
they are looking for an "excuse for [their] cowardice and humiliation." The
Iranian regime also sponsors Holocaust denial cartoon contests.
Instead of standing with its staunch allies in the Middle East, the Biden
administration appears determined to stand with the Iranian regime. The ruling
mullahs nonetheless appear intent on taking over their oil-rich neighbors (such
as here and here), and eliminating Israel and the United States -- all as
America seems to imagine, falsely, that it can bribe its way into being spared.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated
scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and
president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has
authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at
Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The War Is Getting More Dangerous for America, and Biden
Knows It
Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/May 07/2022
If you just followed news reports on Ukraine, you might think that the war has
settled into a long, grinding and somewhat boring slog. You would be wrong.
Things are actually getting more dangerous by the day.
For starters, the longer this war goes on, the more opportunity for catastrophic
miscalculations — and the raw material for that is piling up fast and furious.
Take the two high-profile leaks from American officials this past week about US
involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war:
First, The Times disclosed that “the United States has provided intelligence
about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the
Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior
American officials.” Second, The Times, following a report by NBC News and
citing US officials, reported that America has “provided intelligence that
helped Ukrainian forces locate and strike” the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s
Black Sea fleet. This targeting assistance “contributed to the eventual sinking”
of the Moskva by two Ukrainian cruise missiles.
As a journalist, I love a good leak story, and the reporters who broke those
stories did powerful digging. At the same time, from everything I have been able
to glean from senior US officials, who spoke to me on condition of anonymity,
the leaks were not part of any thought-out strategy, and President Biden was
livid about them. I’m told that he called the director of national intelligence,
the director of the C.I.A. and the secretary of defense to make clear in the
strongest and most colorful language that this kind of loose talk is reckless
and has got to stop immediately — before we end up in an unintended war with
Russia.
The staggering takeaway from these leaks is that they suggest we are no longer
in an indirect war with Russia but rather edging toward a direct war — and no
one has prepared the American people or Congress for that.
Vladimir Putin surely has no illusions about how much the US and NATO are arming
Ukraine with material and intelligence, but when American officials start to
brag in public about playing a role in killing Russian generals and sinking the
Russian flagship, killing many sailors, we could be creating an opening for
Putin to respond in ways that could dangerously widen this conflict — and drag
the US in deeper than it wants to be.
It is doubly dangerous, senior US officials say, because it is increasingly
obvious to them that Putin’s behavior is not as predictable as it has been in
the past. And Putin is running out of options for some kind of face-saving
success on the ground — or even a face-saving off ramp.
It is hard to exaggerate what a catastrophe this war has been for Putin so far.
Indeed, Biden pointed out to his team that Putin was trying to push back on NATO
expansion, and he’s ended up laying the groundwork for the expansion of NATO.
Both Finland and Sweden are now taking steps toward joining an alliance they’ve
stayed out of for seven decades. But that is why US officials are quite
concerned what Putin might do or announce at the Victory Day celebration in
Moscow on Monday, which marks the anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of
Nazi Germany. It is traditionally a day of military parades and celebration of
the prowess of the Russian Army. Putin could mobilize even more soldiers, make
some other provocation or do nothing at all. But no one knows.
Alas, we have to be alive to the fact that it’s not only the Russians who would
like to involve us more deeply. Have no illusions, President Volodymyr Zelensky
of Ukraine has been trying to do the same thing from the start — to make Ukraine
an immediate member of NATO or get Washington to forge a bilateral security pact
with Kyiv. I am in awe of Zelensky’s heroism and leadership. If I were him, I’d
be trying to get the US as enmeshed on my side as he is.
But I’m an American citizen, and I want us to be careful. Ukraine was, and still
is, a country marbled with corruption. That doesn’t mean we should not be
helping it. I am glad we are. I insist we do. But my sense is that the Biden
team is walking much more of a tightrope with Zelensky than it would appear to
the eye — wanting to do everything possible to make sure he wins this war but
doing so in a way that still keeps some distance between us and Ukraine’s
leadership. That’s so Kyiv is not calling the shots and so we’ll not be
embarrassed by messy Ukrainian politics in the war’s aftermath.
The view of Biden and his team, according to my reporting, is that America needs
to help Ukraine restore its sovereignty and beat the Russians back — but not let
Ukraine turn itself into an American protectorate on the border of Russia. We
need to stay laser-focused on what is our national interest and not stray in
ways that lead to exposures and risks we don’t want.
One thing I know about Biden — with whom I traveled to Afghanistan in 2002 when
he was a senator heading the Foreign Relations Committee — is that he is not
easily romanced by world leaders. He has dealt with too many of them over his
career. He’s got a pretty good sense of where US interests stop and start. Ask
the Afghans.
So where are we now? Putin’s Plan A — taking Kyiv and installing his own leader
— has failed. And his Plan B — trying just to take full control of Ukraine’s old
industrial heartland, known as the Donbas, which is largely Russian speaking —
is still in doubt. Putin’s freshly reinforced ground forces have made some
progress, but it’s still limited. It is springtime in the Donbas, meaning the
ground is still sometimes muddy and wet, so Russian armor still has to stay on
roads and highways in many areas, making them vulnerable.
As America navigates Ukraine and Russia and tries to avoid being ensnared, one
bright spot in the effort to avoid a wider war is the administration’s success
at keeping China from providing military aid to Russia. This has been huge.
After all, it was just Feb. 4 when China’s president, Xi Jinping, hosted Putin
at the opening of the 2022 Winter Olympic Games, where they unveiled all sorts
of trade and energy agreements, and then issued a joint declaration asserting
that the friendship between Russia and China “has no limits.”
That was then. After the war started, Biden personally explained to Xi in a
lengthy phone call that China’s economic future rests on access to the American
and European markets — its two largest trading partners — and should China
provide military aid to Putin, it would have very negative consequences for
China’s trade with both markets. Xi did the math and has been deterred from
helping Russia in any military way, which has also made Putin weaker. The
Western restrictions on shipping microchips to Russia have begun to really
hobble some of his factories — and China has not stepped in, so far.
My bottom line echoes my top line — and I can’t underscore it enough: We need to
stick as tightly as possible to our original limited and clearly defined aim of
helping Ukraine expel Russian forces as much as possible or negotiate for their
withdrawal whenever Ukraine’s leaders feel the time is right.
But we are dealing with some incredibly unstable elements, particularly a
politically wounded Putin. Boasting about killing his generals and sinking his
ships, or falling in love with Ukraine in ways that will get us enmeshed there
forever, is the height of folly.
The Next Front in the Ukraine War Will Be on the Black Sea
James Stavridis/Bloomberg/May 07/2022
On the surface, the tiny Ukrainian navy, just 5,000 active-duty sailors and a
handful of small coastal boats, appears to be significantly overmatched by
Russian maritime forces.
The Kremlin’s Black Sea fleet consists of over 40 frontline warships. The
Russians seem poised to cut off the Ukrainian economy from access to the sea —
essentially re-creating the Anaconda strategy US President Abraham Lincoln used
in the 19th century to choke off the Confederacy.
But Russian success is hardly guaranteed, as the Ukrainians are proving as
surprisingly stalwart at sea as they have been on land, already pulling off a
handful of successful engagements against Russia’s naval forces.
What does the maritime component of the Ukrainian war look like in the months
ahead?
Just over a decade ago, I visited the Crimean port of Sevastopol and had lunch
with the Ukrainian chief of naval operations, Viktor Maksimov. We were able to
walk out onto the bridge wing of his flagship and surveil the Russian navy just
up the waterway.
This was before the 2014 invasion of Crimea by the Russians, but even then, the
Ukrainian admiral correctly said: “Sooner or later, they will come for this
port. And their fleet is much stronger than ours.”
At the time, I discounted the idea of a full-fledged invasion, but Russian
President Vladimir Putin has now proved me wrong twice. Sevastopol is very much
in Russian hands, and it affords them a distinct advantage in potential combat
at sea.
The Russians have over three dozen capable combatant ships with immediate access
to the crucial waterways of the northern Black Sea, and at least partial control
over 60% of Ukraine’s coastline from Crimea through the Sea of Azov to the
Russian mainland. Ukraine has lost its major warships, which were seized or
destroyed in 2014, and has to take a guerrilla approach. So far, it is playing a
weak hand very well.
The shocking sinking last month of Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the cruiser
Moskva, was a good example of how the Ukrainians are going to approach war on
their coast. They used an indigenously produced short-range cruise missile, the
Neptune, and caught the Russians off guard. A failure of the Russian air-defense
system, coupled with poor damage control, led to the loss of the ship, its heavy
cruise-missile battery and (according to the Ukrainians) hundreds of its crew of
around 500.
Last week, the Ukrainians announced they used Turkish-manufactured drones (which
are appearing more and more frequently on battlefields globally) to sink two
Russian patrol boats.
The upshot of both the strike on the Moskva and the sinking of the two gunboats
is that the Ukrainians intend to contest control near the coast. Western
hardware will be essential of course — the UK.has pledged to deliver hundreds of
antiship Brimstone missiles this month — but so will real-time intelligence and
targeting. In war at sea — where ships cannot hide behind terrain features,
obviously — this is crucial. The battle of Midway in World War II, for example,
turned in America’s favor almost entirely on the ability of US intelligence to
direct the outmanned naval force.
The Russians will have to come up with new strategies. This might include using
the sea as a “flanking zone” to come around the lines of the Ukrainian defenders
on land, similar to the bold move by General Douglas MacArthur in landing at
Inchon on the Korean peninsula in 1950.
Another possibility would be blockading Ukraine’s most vital port, Odesa, to try
to sever the Ukrainian economy from global markets. Third, the Russians will
likely try to provide intense supporting fire from the sea against Ukrainian
targets ashore — they recently demonstrated the ability to launch a land-attack
cruise missile from a submarine, for example.
To counter, the Ukrainians can take a page from their land forces, which have
been destroying Russian tanks and armored vehicles by the hundreds using
relatively inexpensive weapons provided by Western allies. The US Navy’s SEALs
have a good range of capabilities to disable shipping, and some of these systems
should be made available to the Ukrainians.
President Joe Biden’s proposed $33 billion assistance package for Ukraine
includes coastal-defense hardware. And other North Atlantic Treaty Organization
members, such as Norway, have very good coastal systems they could provide.
It’s worth considering an escort system for Ukrainian (and other national)
merchant ships that want to go in and out of Odesa. This would be similar to the
Operation Ernest Will escorts provided to merchants during the Iran-Iraq War in
the 1980s. (I participated in those as operations officer on a US cruiser).
The West could also give training in anti-ship warfare to the Ukrainian navy
outside the country, perhaps in nearby Constanta, Romania. (The Romanians
recently began providing an outlet for Ukrainian goods from that port.)
At the high end of the confrontation/risk spectrum, the allies might consider a
humanitarian maritime mission to evacuate civilians (or even Ukrainian military
forces) from the doomed city of Mariupol. Designating this a humanitarian effort
would make it difficult for Moscow to attack the ships taking part, but they
should be appropriately armed combatants prepared to defend the mission. The
vast Black Sea is mostly international waters. NATO warships are free to travel
nearly wherever they want, including into Ukraine’s territorial waters and its
200-mile exclusive economic zone. Conceding those waters to Russia makes no
sense. Instead, look for them to become the next major front in the Ukraine war.
Unemployment Is Low. That Doesn’t Mean the Economy Is Fine.
Peter Coy/The New York Times/May 07/2022
The Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, was correct on Wednesday when he said
in a news conference that the unemployment rate is “just about as low as it’s
been in 50 years.”But that does not necessarily mean, as Powell also said, that
“the American economy is very strong and well positioned to handle tighter
monetary policy.” While the low unemployment rate is great for workers, it
doesn’t shield the US economy from the risk of a recession triggered by, say,
the war in Ukraine or China’s Covid-19 lockdowns. Powell and other Fed officials
need to keep those risks in mind as they raise interest rates to stamp out
inflation. The US economy added 428,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in April and the
unemployment rate stayed at 3.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on
Friday. “Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, in
manufacturing and in transportation and warehousing,” the bureau reported.
Trouble is, that’s a rearview mirror look at the economy. If you wait until the
jobless rate starts rising to try to rescue growth, you’re already too late.
Typically the number of people on payrolls in the United States falters when the
overall economy falters, not before. The payroll figure is categorized as a
“coincident” rather than a “leading” indicator by the Conference Board, a
business-supported research group.
What’s more, the current low unemployment rate overstates the strength of the
labor market. One reason there are so many job openings — 1.9 vacancies for
every unemployed person in March — is that many of the people who dropped out of
the labor market when Covid-19 hit still haven’t come back. “The current level
of employment is roughly 4.5 million jobs short of projections based on
prepandemic dynamics,” Mauricio Ulate, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve
Bank of San Francisco, wrote last month.
Amy Crews Cutts, who has an economic consulting firm in Reston, Va., that bears
her name, told me she puts the chance of a recession in the coming 12 months at
70 percent. She said she understands that the Fed has to take inflation
seriously. But she added, “I don’t see how jacking up interest rates is going to
solve the fundamental problem,” which she said is mostly tightness of supply of
critical materials, such as oil and computer chips. “The idea that the Fed can
micromanage inflation is a tough one,” said Cutts, who also serves as the chief
economist of the National Association of Credit Management. “How do you stop a
global supply problem?”
Rajeev Dhawan, the director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State
University, said he worries that if Europe stops buying Russian oil to cut off
funding for its war in Ukraine, global oil prices will shoot up and a recession
in Europe will occur and spill over to the United States. He puts the
probability of a US recession at 30 percent in the next six months and more than
60 percent in 12 months. “The way it’s going,” he said, “it’s not looking good.”
The economist David Rosenberg is even more pessimistic, arguing that a recession
has already begun. (I featured him in this newsletter in March.) He points to,
among other things, the government’s announcement that the US gross domestic
product declined at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first three months of
2022.
Many economists, along with President Biden, dismissed the first-quarter G.D.P.
decline as a brief anomaly. But Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research in
Toronto, argues that the factors others dismissed as one-time events — the
weakening of exports and a slowing of inventory accumulation — are here to stay.
“For those economists saying we should ignore the trade sector, try selling the
story to a company with a high export orientation and tell me how your black eye
feels in the morning,” Rosenberg wrote on Monday. Rosenberg has a litany of
other reasons to worry about growth: The stock market has fallen; the strength
of the dollar will hurt exports; inflation is eroding workers’ incomes, which
will cause them to spend less; manufacturing and housing are under pressure; and
consumer sentiment has weakened.
To be fair, Cutts, Dhawan and Rosenberg are more pessimistic than most
economists. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics,
argues that recessions begin either with balance sheet problems (too much debt)
or cash-flow problems (people spending more than they’re earning). Neither is
the case now, he said. He’s optimistic that this episode of Fed interest-rate
tightening will be more like that of the mid-1990s, when the Fed raised interest
rates to choke off inflation without causing a recession.
Higher interest rates will squeeze housing and manufacturing, but those sectors
aren’t big enough to bring down the overall economy, Shepherdson argued. He said
the preconditions for a recession aren’t present. “Things go to hell when
something substantial happens,” he said. “They don’t randomly go to hell.”
Shepherdson could be right, but there are a lot of ways that the Fed’s
inflation-fighting campaign could go wrong. Powell acknowledged as much in the
news conference on Wednesday, when he said “there’s a path” to success — hardly
a guarantee. He also put it this way: “I think we have a good chance to have a
soft or softish landing or outcome, if you will.” Softish would be goodish. In
fact, it may be the best we can hope for.
Why Russia risks losing Syria to Iran
Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/May 07/2022
In the event of intensified fighting in Syria, Assad will likely turn to Iran
rather than Russia for support.
Russia’s military debacle in Ukraine will have serious consequences for Moscow’s
geopolitical position. Unable to defeat one of the poorest countries in Europe,
the Kremlin will now have a hard time preserving its traditional allies in the
Russian sphere of influence.
This is especially true in Syria, which has been under Moscow’s strategic
umbrella since the Soviet era. For instance, Turkey’s recent decision to close
its airspace to Russian aircraft transiting to Syria,viewed as applying pressure
on Moscow over its war in Ukraine, will affect Russian military capabilities in
Syria, where more than 63,000 Russian troops have deployed.
Turkey’s own military adventures in Syria will further complicate Russia’s role
there. Ankara recently launched a spate of strikes on Kurdish-run parts of the
country’s northeast and although they do not pose an immediate threat to Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad, the attacks could alter Russia’s support for the
Syrian leader. As Russia expert Alexey Malashenko explains, if Syria’s civil war
reignites, Moscow would have no choice but to withdraw Russian troops from the
Middle Eastern country, as the Kremlin cannot wage two large-scale conflicts at
the same time.
The Kremlin’s weak reaction to Turkey’s decision to close its airspace to
Russian planes is another sign that Russian policymakers are aware that when it
comes to Syria, Ankara has the upper hand. Perhaps this explains why Yevgeny
Prigozhin, the founder of the paramilitary Wagner Group who is closely linked to
Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently praised Turkish actions against the
Kurds in Iraq and Syria by saying that Ankara, engaged in its own “holy war,”
has “every moral right to fight Kurdish militants.”
Such rhetoric will not help the Kremlin appease Ankara, but Putin may recognise
the futility of trying. Even though Turkey has not formally joined anti-Russian
sanctions over Ukraine, it continues to supply weapons to the Ukrainian
government and its recent actions suggest that Ankara could soon launch a
large-scale military campaign of its own in Syria.
Russian officials are aware of such a possibility. Semyon Bagdasarov, a Middle
East expert and a member of the Russian parliament, said on April 24 that
Turkey’s ban on Russian flights to Syria could be part of Ankara’s efforts to
resolve the situation in northern Syria in its favour, at Russia’s expense. “We
should never forget that Turkey is a member of NATO,” said Bagdasarov,
explaining why Turkish leaders had yet again stabbed Russia in the back (a
sentiment that dates back years).
Hypothetically, Russia could respond to Ankara’s actions in Syria by banning the
imports of Turkish tomatoes, or by temporarily closing the TurkStream pipeline
for “maintenance.” But given Moscow’s weak geopolitical position and the fact
that its economy already suffers from Western sanctions, it is unlikely that the
Kremlin will do anything further to jeopardise relations with Ankara.
For Russia, the flight ban means that it will have difficulty supplying troops
in Khmeimim and Tartus. It is entirely possible that Turkey, pressured by the
United States, made such a decision to prevent Russia from relocating parts of
its air force from Khmeimim to Ukraine. Previously, on February 28, Ankara
restricted passage of Russian warships through the Bosporus and Dardanelles
Straits unless they were returning to their bases in the Black Sea. In other
words, unless Turkish-backed rebels launch a large-scale offensive in Syria,
Russia’s assistance to Assad’s Syrian Arab Army will be limited. Even then, the
Ukraine war has significantly diminished Russia’s response capacity.
That is why, in the event of intensified fighting in Syria, Assad will likely
turn to Iran rather than Russia for support. According to some reports, Iranian
forces have already deployed to parts of Syria previously controlled by Russian
troops.
Iran is also stepping up to address fuel shortages in Syria, which are impacting
basic services and leading to an increase in food prices. Before Russia invaded
Ukraine, Moscow was actively supplying petrol to Syria. But Putin’s Ukrainian
adventure has disrupted supply chains and now, according to Russian sources,
Iran has become the main supplier of petrol and other fuels to the Assad regime.
None of this has changed Syria’s political allegiance and for now at least,
Damascus remains loyal to Moscow. As Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad put it
recently: Syria “supports the Russian Federation in its opposition to the West’s
policy based on lies and double standards.” Syria also praised Russia’s decision
to recognise the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic in
Ukraine’s Donbas region (although Damascus has not officially recognised the
self-proclaimed entities).
Assad seems to be pursuing a foreign policy that has been used for years by
another Russian ally, Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko. But while
Lukashenko has been balancing between Russia and the West, Assad will, for the
foreseeable future, balance Syria’s ties between Moscow and Tehran. Yet in the
long-term, the war in Ukraine will diminish Russia’s influence in Syria and in
the process, open the door for Iran to replace Russia as Assad’s main backer.