English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 21/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable Of The Lost son
Luke15/11-32: He (Jesus) said, “A certain man had two sons.
The younger of them said to his father, ‘Father, give me my share of your
property.’ He divided his livelihood between them. Not many days after, the
younger son gathered all of this together and traveled into a far country. There
he wasted his property with riotous living. When he had spent all of it, there
arose a severe famine in that country, and he began to be in need. He went and
joined himself to one of the citizens of that country, and he sent him into his
fields to feed pigs. He wanted to fill his belly with the husks that the pigs
ate, but no one gave him any. 15:17 But when he came to himself he said, ‘How
many hired servants of my father’s have bread enough to spare, and I’m dying
with hunger! I will get up and go to my father, and will tell him, “Father, I
have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no more worthy to be called
your son. Make me as one of your hired servants .”’ “He arose, and came to his
father. But while he was still far off, his father saw him, and was moved with
compassion, and ran, and fell on his neck, and kissed him. The son said to him,
‘Father, I have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no longer worthy
to be called your son.’ “But the father said to his servants, ‘Bring out the
best robe, and put it on him. Put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet.
Bring the fattened calf, kill it, and let us eat, and celebrate; for this, my
son, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and is found.’ They began to
celebrate. “Now his elder son was in the field. As he came near to the house, he
heard music and dancing. He called one of the servants to him, and asked what
was going on. He said to him, ‘Your brother has come, and your father has killed
the fattened calf, because he has received him back safe and healthy.’ But he
was angry, and would not go in. Therefore his father came out, and begged him.
But he answered his father, ‘Behold, these many years I have served you, and I
never disobeyed a commandment of yours, but you never gave me a goat, that I
might celebrate with my friends. But w
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on March 20-21/2022
Values That We Can We Learn From "The Lost Son" Parable/Elias Bejjani/Saturday,
19 March, 2022
Al-Rahi Discusses Lebanon, Hizbullah with al-Sisi
President Aoun from Rome: I bring to His Holiness a message of love on behalf of
the Lebanese, and I renew my invitation to the...
President Aoun: “Christianity in Lebanon is not in danger”.
President Aoun congratulates Lebanese mothers on their day: No matter the
difficulties, a Lebanon that is recovering in your...
President Aoun on La Francophonie day: Lebanon is attached to its values, which
are currently being subjected to the most severe blows in more than...
Corona - Health Ministry: 361 new Corona cases, 5 deaths
"No gasoline crisis tomorrow, stations will be open," reassures Fayyad
Lebanese Cabinet urges judiciary not to fall for populism as banks plan strike
Raad Says Electoral Battle against 'Hostile Project' Will be 'Very Difficult'
Geagea: May 15th elections a step to choose between hell, saving the country
Energy Minister reviews with his Qatari counterpart Lebanon's needs, ways of
receiving Qatari support in energy field
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 20-21/2022
Signs of an Imminent Iran Nuclear Deal
Russia demands Ukrainian forces lay down arms in Mariupol
Ukraine’s Zelensky condemns ‘terror’ in besieged Mariupol as fighting rages
Zelenskyy says ‘time for Israel to make its choice’ and back Ukraine
Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could
mean 'a third World War'
Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over
Ukraine Invasion
Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, destroys fuel storage site
Iran, Israel missile strikes put American troops at risk, top US general for
Middle East says
Gargash: Assad Visit Stems from UAE Position to Perpetuate Arab Role in Syria
How to Use Syrian Oil as an 'Entry Point' to Breaking the Deadlock
6 Dead in Belgium as Car Hits Early Morning Carnival Crowd
Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on the International Day of La
Francophonie
Yemen Rebels Launch Wide Strikes on Saudi Sites; No One Hurt
Houthis under fire for ruining peace efforts to end war
Deadly attacks on women rise sharply in Iraqi Kurdistan
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 20-21/2022
The shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab
News/March 20, 2022
Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March 20,
2022
The changing security scenario in Europe/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 20, 2022
Iran's Long Arm in Turkey, Turkey's Fake "Peace"/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/March 20/2022
Is the War in Ukraine Nearing its End or Will it Get More Destructive?/Omer
Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 20/2022
on March 20-21/2022
Values That We Can We Learn From "The Lost
Son" Parable
Elias Bejjani/Saturday, 19 March, 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73276/elias-bejjani-values-that-we-can-we-learn-from-the-lost-son-parable/
In our Maronite Catholic Church’s rite, on the Fourth Lent Sunday we recall and
cite the biblical Lost Son’s parable that is known also as The Prodigal Son.
(Lost Son) This impulsive, selfish and thoughtless son, as the parable tells us,
fell prey to evil’s temptation and decided to take his share of his father’s
inheritance and leave the parental dwelling.
He travelled to a far-away city where he indulged badly in all evil conducts of
pleasure and corruption until he lost all his money and became penniless. He
experienced severe poverty, starvation, humiliation and loneliness.
In the midst of his dire hardships he felt nostalgic, came back to his senses
and decided with great self confidence to return back to his father’s house,
kneel on his feet and ask him for forgiveness.
On his return his loving and kind father received him with rejoice, open arms,
accepted his repentance, and happily forgave him all his misdeeds. Because of
his sincere repentance his Father gave him back all his privileges as a son.
This parable is a road map for repentance and forgiveness. It shows us how much
Almighty God our Father loves us, we His children and how He is always ready
with open arms and willing to forgive our sins and trespasses when we come back
to our senses, recognize right from wrong, admit our weaknesses and wrongdoings,
eagerly and freely return to Him and with faith and repentance ask for His
forgiveness.
Asking Almighty God for what ever we need is exactly what the Holy Bible
instructs us to do when encountering all kinds of doubt, weaknesses, stumbling,
hard times, sickness, loneliness, persecution, injustice etc.
Matthew 07/07&08: “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find.
Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who
seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”
All what we have to do is to pray and to ask Him with faith, self confidence and
humility and He will respond.
Matthew 21/22: “All things, whatever you ask in prayer, believing, you will
receive.”
We are not left alone at any time, especially when in trouble, no matter how far
we distance ourselves from God and disobey His Holy bible. He is a Father, a
loving, caring and forgiving Father.
What is definite is that in spite of our foolishness, stupidity, ignorance,
defiance and ingratitude He never ever abandons us or gives up on our salvation.
He loves us because we His are children.
He happily sent His only begotten son to be tortured, humiliated and crucified
in a bid to absolve our original sin.'
God carries our burdens and helps us to fight all kinds of Evil temptations.
Matthew11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I
will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle
and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy,
and my burden is light.”
God is waiting for our repentance, let us run to Him and ask for forgiveness
before it is too late
The Parable Of The Lost son
Luke15/11-32: He (Jesus) said, “A certain man had two sons. The younger of them
said to his father, ‘Father, give me my share of your property.’ He divided his
livelihood between them. Not many days after, the younger son gathered all of
this together and traveled into a far country. There he wasted his property with
riotous living. When he had spent all of it, there arose a severe famine in that
country, and he began to be in need. He went and joined himself to one of the
citizens of that country, and he sent him into his fields to feed pigs. He
wanted to fill his belly with the husks that the pigs ate, but no one gave him
any. 15:17 But when he came to himself he said, ‘How many hired servants of my
father’s have bread enough to spare, and I’m dying with hunger! I will get up
and go to my father, and will tell him, “Father, I have sinned against heaven,
and in your sight. I am no more worthy to be called your son. Make me as one of
your hired servants .”’ “He arose, and came to his father. But while he was
still far off, his father saw him, and was moved with compassion, and ran, and
fell on his neck, and kissed him. The son said to him, ‘Father, I have sinned
against heaven, and in your sight. I am no longer worthy to be called your son.’
“But the father said to his servants, ‘Bring out the best robe, and put it on
him. Put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet. Bring the fattened calf,
kill it, and let us eat, and celebrate; for this, my son, was dead, and is alive
again. He was lost, and is found.’ They began to celebrate. “Now his elder son
was in the field. As he came near to the house, he heard music and dancing. He
called one of the servants to him, and asked what was going on. He said to him,
‘Your brother has come, and your father has killed the fattened calf, because he
has received him back safe and healthy.’ But he was angry, and would not go in.
Therefore his father came out, and begged him. But he answered his father,
‘Behold, these many years I have served you, and I never disobeyed a commandment
of yours, but you never gave me a goat, that I might celebrate with my friends.
But when this, your son, came, who has devoured your living with prostitutes,
you killed the fattened calf for him.’ “He said to him, ‘Son, you are always
with me, and all that is mine is yours. But it was appropriate to celebrate and
be glad, for this, your brother, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and
is found.
Al-Rahi Discusses Lebanon, Hizbullah with al-Sisi
Naharnet/20 March 2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday said he discussed the thorny issue
of Hizbullah’s weapons in a meeting in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel
Fattah al-Sisi. “We talked about the issue of Hizbullah’s arms, which is not in
the hands of the Lebanese anymore, and had there been a defense strategy, a part
of the problem would have been solved,” al-Rahi said in an interview with
Lebanon’s MTV. “We tackled Lebanon’s domestic issues and al-Sisi expressed his
regret over the state that Lebanon has reached,” the patriarch added. “I told
him that Lebanon is ill and that we need to treat its illness, which is the
failure to implement the Taef Accord,” al-Rahi went on to say. “The solution is
to declare neutrality,” the patriarch noted. He added: “We regret that Lebanon
has become isolated from the world and the Egyptian president is ready to
support the Lebanese cause and he emphasized this to me.”“We told him that the
solutions are not in the hands of the Lebanese alone to implement and that there
is a role for Arabs and the international community,” al-Rahi said.
President Aoun from Rome: I bring to His Holiness a
message of love on behalf of the Lebanese, and I renew my invitation to the...
President Aoun: “Christianity in Lebanon is not in danger”.
NNA/20 March 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, and the accompanying delegation
arrived at Fiumicino Airport in Rome on an official visit to the Vatican to meet
Pope Francis.
The President will also visit his Italian counterpart, Sergio Mattarella, at the
Presidential Quirinale Palace.
President Aoun was received at the airport by Head of Ceremonies in the Holy
See, Monsignor Joseph Murphy, Papal Ambassador, Francesco Canalini,
representatives of the Supreme Pontiff, and Counselor, Carmelo Ficarra from the
diplomatic ceremonies at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as
Lebanon's Ambassador to the Vatican, Dr. Farid Elias El-Khazen, and Lebanon's
Ambassador in Italy, Mira Al-Daher, Maronite Patriarchal delegate to the Holy
See, Bishop Youhanna Rafiq Al-Warsha, Vice-Dean of the Pontifical Institute in
Rome, Father Joseph Sfeir, and Father Anthony Choueifati of the Rota Court in
the Vatican.
President Aoun's Statement:
The President expressed his pleasure for being in Rome, and stressed the
importance he attaches to his meeting, for the second time during his tenure,
with the Supreme Pontiff, Pope Francis, in view of the depth of the relations
that bind Lebanon and its sons of all denominations with the Church and the
Supreme Pontiffs. President Aoun also asserted that “Lebanon has been going
through a severe period of economic and social difficulties that erupted as a
result of accumulations dating back to years of wrong management of public
affairs, which exacerbated with the spread of the Corona pandemic and the great
explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut causing a major humanitarian
disaster and damage to lives and property”. “At the same time, the Holy See has
a special place in the heart of every Lebanese, as its officials have always
stood by Lebanon, in the various difficult circumstances it has gone through,
throughout its history. The Lebanese of different sects have always been
reassured that the eye of the Master of the Holy See surrounds them” President
Aoun said. “Pope Francis has previously sent his Eminence Secretary of State
Cardinal Pietro Parolin to Lebanon following the Beirut explosion, and nearly a
year later, the Secretary of Relations with Countries, Monsignor Paul-Richard
Gallagher. In addition to dedicating a day of prayer and meditation for Lebanon
in the heart of the Holy See on the first of last July” the President continued.
Moreover, President Aoun affirmed that he is bringing to His Holiness Pope
Francis a message of love on behalf of all the Lebanese, and renewing the
official invitation that he had previously addressed to him, to visit Lebanon in
order to restore hope for the launch of the recovery process, at a time when we
need his prayers and words. The President also considered that Christianity in
Lebanon is not in danger, as some insist on portraying. “I am looking forward to
this visit as a glimmer of hope to confirm that Lebanon is not transient, and it
will remain, despite all the difficulties. Lebanon is a model for living
together, according to what all the Lebanese insist on. No one in Lebanon fought
the other with the aim of changing his doctrine. From here we still consider
Lebanon today as a center of convergence in the world between Christianity and
Islam with all their sects, as well as a meeting place for various
civilizations” President Aoun said. "My visit, in this particular circumstance,
to the capital of Catholicism comes not only in the context of strengthening
relations with the Vatican, as this is a foregone conclusion as it is one of the
constants of Lebanon's relations with the outside. But we consider His Holiness
the Pope, as the largest spiritual and moral force in the world, and the one who
helps us the most, especially in difficult circumstances, with his influence. He
never failed to consider Lebanon a priority, despite the multiplication of his
frameworks of interests in a world suffering from many intertwined crises, the
latest of which is the war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine which casts a
shadow over international relations as a whole” President Aoun concluded.
Meeting:
After a short break in the Salon of Honor, the President moved to his residence
at the Parco dei Principi Hotel in Rome, where he immediately held a meeting
with Ambassador Al-Khazen and then with Ambassador Al-Daher to see the final
arrangements for his meeting program. ---- Presidency Information Office
President Aoun congratulates Lebanese mothers on their day:
No matter the difficulties, a Lebanon that is recovering in your...
NNA/20 March 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, congratulated the mothers in
Lebanon on their day via his "Twitter" account, saying: “From the heart to the
mothers of Lebanon, a sincerest greeting...You are the model of firmness in
love, and steadfastness in giving without limits…Whatever the difficulties, a
recovering Lebanon, in your image and likeness, will remain worthy of life!”
President Aoun on La Francophonie day: Lebanon is
attached to its values, which are currently being subjected to the most severe
blows in more than...
NNA/20 March 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted “Lebanon's commitment
and attachment to the French language and the values embodied in la
Francophonie: respect for human rights, cultural and linguistic pluralism,
freedom of expression, and the consolidation of democracy”. The President also
emphasized that these values are being subjected to the most severe blows, in
more than one region of the world, and that Lebanon retains the hope of
returning to these values, because it remains the only way to dialogue that
guarantees peace and directs humanity to a better world, and the unprecedented
crises that are currently shaking it will not deter it from fulfilling its role
in preserving the French language. President Aoun’s stances came in a word on
the occasion of the International Day of the Francophonie, which is on March 20,
when the organization celebrates its establishment on this date in 1970.
Text:
“On this day, which is the feast of Francophonie, I convey my best wishes to the
French-speakers in Lebanon and the world. On this occasion, I would like to
recall Lebanon’s attachment to the French language and the values it bears:
respect for human rights, cultural and linguistic pluralism, freedom of
expression, and the consolidation of democracy. Currently, these values are
being subjected to the most severe blows, in more than one region of the world.
As for Lebanon, it retains the hope of returning to these values, because it
remains the only way to dialogue that guarantees peace and directs humanity to a
better world. Lebanon renews its commitment to work within the Francophone
institutions, and to continue to play its historical role in preserving the
French language, which is an essential component of its cultural identity, and
in developing it, at the national, regional and international levels. The
unprecedented crises currently shaking Lebanon will not deter it from fulfilling
this role. The imminent opening in Beirut of the representation of the
International Francophone Organization for the Middle East in the offices placed
by the Lebanese authorities at the disposal of the organization, is evidence of
this continued commitment to the various projects that are implemented
throughout the Francophone world”.
Corona - Health Ministry: 361 new Corona cases, 5 deaths
NNA/20 March 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced Sunday the registration of 361 new Coronavirus infections, which
raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,088,196. It added
that 5 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
"No gasoline crisis tomorrow, stations will be open,"
reassures Fayyad
NNA/20 March 2022
Minister of Energy and Water, Dr. Walid Fayyad, issued a statement this evening,
in which he indicated that he continued to follow-up on the gasoline issue while
participating in the Doha conference in Qatar on Sunday. In this context, Fayyad
made a series of contacts with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the oil importing
companies and the union of gas stations, whereby oil companies confirmed their
commitment to continue supplying gas stations so they can be open to citizens
tomorrow.
Lebanese Cabinet urges judiciary not to fall for
populism as banks plan strike
Najia Houssari/Arab News/20 March 2022
BEIRUT: A Cabinet meeting was convened on Saturday to address judicial actions
against seven banks in Lebanon. The meeting conducted a review of the conflict
between banks and the judiciary. The extraordinary session was held under the
title “The higher interest of the state.”The Cabinet concluded with Mikati
affirming that the council of ministers had agreed that the law would take its
course based on the principle of cooperation between the authorities without any
discrimination or discretion. It also agreed that judicial matters would be
resolved according to laws by the staff of the judicial authority.
A ministerial source who took part in the session told Arab News that the
ministers saw that it was not allowed for judges to use depositors’ money to
achieve a certain populism.The judge should not be a populist and tweet on
Twitter, some ministers reportedly felt.
BACKGROUND
The banking association said the strike was a warning against what it called
‘the arbitrariness of some judicial decisions’ - a reference to orders that have
frozen the assets of seven banks since March 14 and banned six of their
executives from travel.“The banks are indeed mistaken and there is indeed a
major crisis, but it should be addressed in a balanced and non-random manner,”
they suggested. In response to what it described as a “judicial attack on
banks,” the Association of Banks has called for the issuance of the capital
control law as soon as possible. In addition to the strike, the association
warned that it might “take other steps that may be necessary to preserve the
national economy and the supreme Lebanese interest.”The decision on a set of
lawsuits filed by activist groups against some major banks in Lebanon to recover
depositors’ money coincided with investigations on charges against the central
bank governor on suspicion of illegal enrichment and money laundering. The
judicial procedures resulted in the execution of the seizure of Fransabank’s
assets, shares, and real estate and of the Creditbank and the branches of Blom
Bank in Tripoli. The Association of Depositors indicated its intention “to file
more executive lawsuits against banks in the coming days.”In a related
development, the brother of Central Bak Gov. Raja Salameh, was arrested by the
appeal public prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Ghada Aoun, after he appeared before
her as a witness.
Salameh’s attorney, Marwan Issa El-Khoury, said the allegations of “illicit
enrichment and money laundering” were unfounded and the case was “media
speculation without any evidence.”
The governor of the central bank had refrained from coming to Judge Aoun’s
office more than a week ago as a witness, as he had filed a lawsuit to respond
to Judge Aoun about the case in which he was investigated.
Aoun has also issued a travel ban against Salameh. She said that the possibility
of the political authority putting pressure on the judiciary was an
“unacceptable attack on judges who perform their professional duty, if some
people did not like this or that prosecution.”
Judge Aoun, who is affiliated with the president, in a tweet called on Lebanon’s
judges to arm themselves with “the truth and the legal text. The hope is in you
to save the country from injustice, bullying the weak and diverting
influence.”One of the ways out of the current crisis is to refer the
confrontation between depositors and banks to the Court of Appeal. The court may
decide on Monday to implement the decision to break the seizure of safes and
maintain the seizure of the value of the claimant’s deposit. Also on Saturday,
the leader of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, said that “some bank
owners and their administrators bear part of the responsibility for what
happened to depositors’ deposits, and therefore they should be prosecuted
legally.” But he added: “What is happening now with regard to the issue of banks
is a kind of farce and misleading public opinion.” Geagea expressed his fear
that “these authoritarian measures that use part of the judiciary as a tool for
them, and are covered by law, will destroy the banking sector instead of
reforming it.”Geagea said that “the president, the current government, and the
parliamentary majority are responsible for the harm that befalls Lebanese
citizens as a result of all their personal maliciousness, continuous blackmail
attempts or attempts to change some officials to appoint the most evil crooks in
their place.”
Raad Says Electoral Battle against 'Hostile Project'
Will be 'Very Difficult'
Naharnet/20 March 2022
The head of Hizbullah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, on Sunday admitted
that the upcoming parliamentary elections will be a “very difficult” challenge
to his party. “We’re not running in the elections to reserve parliamentary
seats, but rather to confront a side that wants to impoverish and starve our
people, to create chaos in our country and to threaten our security and
sovereignty,” Raad noted. “Unfortunately, this international side is finding
compliance from some regional and local parties,” Raad added. “Our battle is
very difficult and it is necessary to win it in order to defeat this hostile
project that is targeting our existence, dignity and our country’s sovereignty,”
the lawmaker said. Raad, however, pointed out that the country “cannot be run by
a single camp.”“We’re saying this and we’re confident that we will return to
parliament with the same strength or maybe more. We cannot run the country on
our own and we want cooperation with others, but with true patriotism and
without being stabbed in the back,” the lawmaker added. “America and its cronies
and tools want to take us to the wrong choice and the objective is to remove the
weapons of the resistance, the weapons that protected Lebanon, regained the
dignity of Lebanese and all Arabs in the region, safeguarded national
sovereignty and terrorized the enemy,” Raad went on to say.
Geagea: May 15th elections a step to choose between
hell, saving the country
NNA/20 March 2022
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, stressed that "the 2022 elections are
not just ordinary elections, but a decisive battle, and the goal is not just to
win one or two representatives in parliament because our country is in its worst
conditions and sinking more and more daily…while its officials have not taken
any step for the past two years, since the start of the crisis, in the required
direction even to mitigate its repercussions…Rather, all the steps taken came
against the required rescue and drowned the country more and more and more….”
Geagea’s words came during a dinner banquet he hosted with his spouse, MP Strida
Geagea, in Maarab in honor of the Lebanese Forces branch in the area of Bkaa
Kafra, attended by partisans, electoral candidates and prominent officials from
the region. The LF Chief reiterated that “the entitlement of May 15th is not
just an electoral process for the region’s representatives, but rather a step
for us to vote for ourselves and to choose between staying in Hell, which has no
end through voting for the ruling clique, or resorting to those who can save the
country.”Geagea hoped for victory on May 15, so that serious work can begin with
the appropriate constitutional tools to initiate the real rescue process, “which
is not easy but truly possible with the combined efforts of everyone,” he said.
Energy Minister reviews with his Qatari counterpart
Lebanon's needs, ways of receiving Qatari support in energy field
NNA/20 March 2022
Minister of Energy and Water, Walid Fayyad, met Sunday with the Qatari Minister
of Energy on the sidelines of the seventh general conference of the Arab
Electricity Union held in Doha, during which discussions touched on energy
affairs in general, and Lebanon's needs in particular and ways to help it in
this field. Talks also tackled the significant changes that are taking place in
the fuel market, in light of the recent emerging crisis and the increasing
demand for Qatari gas.In view of these volatile circumstances, the Qatari side
encouraged Lebanon to launch a new tender given its need for gas and in wake of
the global changes taking place, particularly since its station located in Al-Zahrani
requires gas as a first stage. Lebanon was also advised to launch its new gas
tender with appealing terms for participants, given that the market is subject
today to strong and wide competition, as the demand is huge and the supply is
little, which confirms the need for having stimulating, appropriate and
executable tender conditions.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
March 20-21/2022
Signs of an Imminent Iran Nuclear Deal
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 March, 2022
An agreement over Iran's nuclear program could be reached within 48 hours, said
a senior participant in the Vienna talks. Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney,
who acts as United Nations Security Council facilitator at the talks, stressed
“the signals are good” for agreement over the weekend. There was “no question”
that the agreement would lead to renewed oil exports from Iran, reducing upward
pressure on energy prices in the West, he added. Coveney told BBC Radio 4’s
Today: “We are getting much closer to signing a deal. “In fact, some would say
that there’s prospects potentially for a deal this weekend. “Iran has a national
holiday that starts on Monday that lasts nearly two weeks and so it may well be
the case that the political leaders want to get this issue done in the next 48
hours or so, and that’s certainly our hope.”Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
caused “tension and delay” in the Vienna talks because of Moscow’s concern that
international sanctions will prevent it from gaining any benefit from the
opening up of Iran, said Coveney. But he added: “That seems to have been
resolved in the last few days. We look as if we’re almost there. That’s a good
news story when the world needs one and it’s also a reminder that
multilateralism can work if there’s patience and determination to get a deal
across the line.”Coveney cautioned that there was “no certainty” of the deal
being revived this weekend. “There certainly is a possibility now. This deal
really was almost done two or three weeks ago, and certainly on the EU side,
we’ve been happy with the text of the deal for the last two to three weeks,” he
said. “It’s really been about trying to get the remaining parties to the JCPOA
across the line,” remarked Coveney.
Russia demands Ukrainian forces lay down arms in
Mariupol
Reuters/Published: 21 March ,2022
Russia on Sunday called on Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms in the
eastern port city of Mariupol where Moscow said a “terrible humanitarian
catastrophe” was unfolding. “Lay down your arms,” Colonel-General Mikhail
Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management,
said in a briefing distributed by the defence ministry. “A terrible humanitarian
catastrophe has developed,” Mizintsev said. “All who lay down their arms are
guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.” Mariupol has suffered some of the
heaviest bombardment since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Many of its
400,000 residents remain trapped in the city with little if any food, water and
power.Mizintsev said humanitarian corridors for civilians would be opened
eastwards and westwards out of Mariupol at 10 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) on
Monday. Ukraine has until 5 a.m. Moscow time to respond to the offer on
humanitarian corridors and laying down arms, he said. Russia and Ukraine have
traded blame for the failure to open such corridors in recent weeks. Mizintsev,
without providing evidence, said that Ukrainian “bandits”, “neo-Nazis” and
nationalists had engaged in “mass terror” and gone on a killing spree in the
city. Ukraine says it is fighting for its existence and President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy said on Saturday that the siege of Mariupol was “a terror that will be
remembered for centuries to come”. The West has imposed sweeping sanctions on
Russia that the Kremlin says amount to a declaration of economic war by the US
and its allies.Mizintsev said Russia was not using heavy weapons in Mariupol. He
said Russia had evacuated 59,304 people out of the city but that 130,000
civilians remained as effective hostages there. He said 330,686 people had been
evacuated from Ukraine by Russia since the start of the “operation”.The Mariupol
city council said on its Telegram channel late on Saturday that several thousand
residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week. Russia's invasion of
Ukraine has killed thousands of people, displaced more than 3 million and raised
fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the US. Russian President
Vladimir Putin says the “special military operation” in Ukraine was necessary to
disarm and “denazify” its neighbour.
Ukraine’s Zelensky condemns ‘terror’ in besieged Mariupol as fighting rages
Reuters/Match 20/2022
Mariupol has suffered some of the heaviest bombardment since Russia launched its
invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, and many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped
in the city with little if any food, water and power. The UN refugee agency said
10 million people had now been displaced across Ukraine, including some 3.4
million who have fled to neighbouring countries such as Poland. Officials in the
region said they were reaching capacity to comfortably house refugees. Capturing
Mariupol would help Russian forces secure a land corridor to the Crimea
peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Fighting continued inside
the city on Sunday, regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said, without
elaborating.The city council said on its Telegram channel late on Saturday that
several thousand residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week.
Russian news agencies said buses had carried hundreds of people Moscow calls
refugees from Mariupol to Russia in recent days. President Vladimir Putin says
Russia's “special operation” is aimed at disarming Ukraine and rooting out
people he terms dangerous nationalists. Western nations call it an aggressive
war of choice and have imposed punishing sanctions aimed at crippling Russia's
economy. Ukraine and its Western backers say Russian ground forces have made few
advances in the last week, concentrating their efforts instead on artillery and
missile strikes.Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said on Sunday
there had been a relative lull over the past day, with “practically no rocket
strikes on (Ukrainian) cities.” He said front lines were “practically frozen.”
Mariupol's city council said Russian forces had bombed an art school on Saturday
in which 400 residents were sheltering, but the number of casualties was not yet
known. Reuters could not independently verify the claims. Russia denies
targeting civilians.Zelensky said the siege of Mariupol was a war crime. “To do
this to a peaceful city... is a terror that will be remembered for centuries to
come,” he said in a broadcast late on Saturday. Still, he said, peace talks with
Russia were needed although they were “not easy and pleasant.” The UN human
rights office said at least 902 civilians had been killed in the war as of
midnight Saturday, though it says the real toll is probably much higher.
Ukrainian prosecutors said 112 children had been killed. “I want the war to be
over, I want them (Russian forces) to leave Ukraine in peace,” said Margarita
Morozova, 87, who survived Nazi Germany's siege of Leningrad in World War Two
and has lived in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine, for the past 60 years. “Ukraine is an
independent country. What are they doing here?”
Zelenskyy says ‘time for Israel to make its choice’ and
back Ukraine
AFP/20 March ,2022
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday urged Israel to abandon its
effort to maintain neutrality following Russia's invasion, saying the time had
come for Israel to firmly back his country. Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, made the
appeal during an address to Israeli lawmakers, the latest in a series of
speeches by videoconference to foreign legislatures. In remarks that at several
points compared Russian aggression to the Holocaust, Zelenskyy said that
“Ukraine made the choice to save Jews 80 years ago.”“Now it's time for Israel to
make its choice.”Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has walked a careful
diplomatic line since Russia launched its invasion on February 24. Stressing
Israel's strong ties to Moscow and Kyiv, Bennett has sought to preserve delicate
security cooperation with Russia, which has troops in Syria, across Israel's
northern border. Bennett has held regular phone calls with Zelenskyy and Russian
President Vladimir Putin, including a three-hour meeting with Putin at the
Kremlin on March 5. While Ukrainian officials have voiced appreciation for
Bennett's mediation efforts, Zelenskyy on Sunday implied that this too had
proven to be a misstep. “We can mediate between states but not between good and
evil,” the Ukrainian leader said.
Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could
mean 'a third World War'
CNN/March 20, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that he's "ready for
negotiations" with Russian President Vladimir Putin but warned that if they fail
"that would mean that this is a third World War.""I'm ready for negotiations
with him. I was ready for the last two years. And I think that without
negotiations we cannot end this war," he told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "I think
that we have to use any format, any chance in order to have a possibility of
negotiating, possibility of talking to Putin. But if these attempts fail, that
would mean that this is a third World War," he added.
Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss
Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion
Mary Papenfuss/HuffPost/Sun, March 20, 2022
A top commander of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) intelligence agency
has been placed under house arrest amid upheaval and infighting among officials
as President Vladimir Putin fumes over the botched Ukraine invasion, The Wall
Street Journal reported Saturday.
Russian commander Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda was in charge of the FSB’s Ukraine
operation, according to the Journal, citing a U.S. official. The unidentified
American official also told the newspaper that “bickering had broken out”
between the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense, which were the key
government agencies planning the invasion. Citing Russian news sources, The New
York Times reported that a second FSB official was also under house arrest.
Russia’s military operation has not gone nearly as well as planned. CIA Director
William Burns told Congress earlier this month that Putin had planned to seize
the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv within two days. Yet the city continues to fend
off Russian forces nearly a month after the invasion began. As many as five
Russian generals have been killed in the fighting, according to Ukraine. That’s
bad news for officials surrounding Putin, observers warn. “When it comes to this
guy, it’s clear that the culture of ‘someone is at fault and is going to pay’ is
clearly still operative,” former CIA and National Security Council official
Jeffrey Edmonds told the Journal. But the finger-pointing and rising fear and
discontent in the Kremlin could also be bad news for Putin. Russian history
scholar Stephen Kotkin said in a recent New Yorker interview that Putin is only
getting the information that “he wants to hear. In any case, he believes that
he’s superior and smarter. This is the problem of despotism,” he added. “It’s
why despotism, or even just authoritarianism, is all-powerful and brittle at the
same time.”
Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, destroys fuel storage site
AFP, Moscow/20 March ,2022
Russia said Sunday it has again fired its newest Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in
Ukraine, destroying a fuel storage site in the country's south. The Russian
defense ministry also said it killed more than 100 members of Ukrainian special
forces and “foreign mercenaries” when it targeted a training center in the town
of Ovruch in northern Ukraine with sea-based missiles. “Kinzhal aviation missile
systems with hypersonic ballistic missiles destroyed a large storage site for
fuels and lubricants of the Ukrainian armed forces near the settlement of
Kostyantynivka in the Mykolaiv region,” the defense ministry said. The ministry
said the base had been used for the main supplies of fuel for Ukrainian armored
vehicles in the country's south. The Kinzhal (Dagger) hypersonic missiles were
fired from airspace over Russian-controlled Crimea, the ministry said, adding
that Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea had also targeted the
depot. On Saturday, Russia said it had used the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to
destroy an underground missile and ammunition storage site in western Ukraine
close to the border with NATO member Romania. The Ukrainian armed forces
confirmed to AFP on Saturday that the depot had been targeted but said they had
“no information of the type of missile.”Russian analysts said the use Friday of
the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Deliatyn, a village in the foothills of the
Carpathian mountains, was the first combat use of such weapons in the world. The
Russian defense ministry said that it also used long-range precision weapons
against other facilities in Ukraine on Saturday evening and early Sunday.
Russian forces fired the Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea to target a plant in
the northern city of Nizhyn used to repair armored vehicles, the ministry said.
Iran, Israel missile strikes put American troops at risk, top US general for
Middle East says
AP/March 20, 2022
‘… many times our forces are at risk, whether in Iraq or in Syria. So that, in
fact, does concern me’
WASHINGTON: The exchange of missile strikes by Iran and Israel in Iraq and Syria
puts US forces at risk, the top US commander for the Middle East said, just days
after an Iranian missile barrage struck near the US Consulate complex in
northern Iraq.
Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie told Pentagon reporters that over the past six months
Iran has attacked US forces and facilities a number of times, but “very good
action on the part of commanders on the ground” had thwarted any US casualties.
“Had US casualties occurred, I think we might be in a very different place right
now,” said McKenzie. McKenzie and other US officials said this week the missile
strikes on Sunday that hit close to the consulate were not aimed at the US And
Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard said on its website that it had attacked
what it described as an Israeli spy center in Irbil. The attack came several
days after Iran said it would retaliate for an Israeli strike near Damascus that
killed two members of its Revolutionary Guard.
“I think it’s obvious that Israel is going to take steps to defend itself when
it’s confronted with with Iranian actions. And of course, Iran is dedicated to
the destruction of Israel,” McKenzie said.
I think it’s obvious that Israel is going to take steps to defend itself when
it’s confronted with with Iranian actions. “I do worry about these exchanges
between Iran and Israel, because many times our forces are at risk, whether in
Iraq or in Syria. So that, in fact, does concern me.”
McKenzie, who is retiring after about three years as head of US Central Command,
was speaking at what was expected to be his final press briefing. He said that
as he prepares to turn over the job to incoming Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, his
message to his successor is that Iran continues to be his biggest challenge.
“My central problem in my three years of command was Iran,” said McKenzie, who
also oversaw the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and commando raids to kill
Daesh leaders. “There were other problems, other huge problems, but the
headquarters as a whole ... focused on the Iranian problem and everything
attendant to that.”The US presence in Iraq has long been a flash point for
Tehran, but tensions spiked after a January 2020 US drone strike near the
Baghdad airport killed a top Iranian general. In retaliation, Iran launched a
barrage of missiles at Al-Asad air base, where US troops were stationed. More
than 100 service members suffered traumatic brain injuries in the blasts. More
recently, Iranian proxies are believed responsible for an assassination attempt
late last year on Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. And officials have
said they believe Iran was behind the October drone attack at the military
outpost in southern Syria where American troops are based. No US personnel were
killed or injured in the attack. Last year, US forces in Iraq shifted to a
non-combat role, but Iran and its proxies still want all American troops to
leave the country.
McKenzie said the Iranian leaders believe that they can launch a certain level
of attacks against the US without affecting the ongoing negotiations over
Tehran’s nuclear program. Diplomats trying to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
appear to be near the cusp of an agreement that would bring the US back into the
accord and bring Iran back into compliance with limits on its nuclear program.
Congressional opponents of the deal peppered McKenzie with questions this week
about the impact of an agreement on Iranian aggression and whether sanctions
relief will only provide Iran funding for other malign behavior.
McKenzie said the US has gotten better at countering potential strikes by
Iranian drones and other defensive measures, which contributed to the lack of
American casualties. But he and others have noted that the Iranian ballistic
missile strikes have gotten more precise. “We don’t want Iran to have a nuclear
weapon, and the best way to get to that is probably through a negotiated
solution,” he said, adding that such a deal won’t likely solve other problems,
such as Iranian conventional attacks in the region. “I don’t think anybody in
the United States government is blind to that fact, but ... if you can take
nuclear weapons off the table, that’s a powerful capability that you don’t have
to worry about.” Once that is done, he said, then the US could move on and deal
with other problems, including Iran’s increasing ballistic missile and drone
threats. “What you’d like to do is negotiate that, but if you can negotiate
that, that’s where US Central Command comes in. It’s our job to demonstrate to
Iran the concept of deterrence — that the things they want to pursue are too
painful for them to achieve. We work at that every day.”
Gargash: Assad Visit Stems from UAE Position to
Perpetuate Arab Role in Syria
Washington, Ankara, London - Elie Youssef and Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20
March, 2022
Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE, said on
Saturday that the visit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the country
“reflects the UAE’s realistic policy towards reducing tensions and enhancing the
Arab role in a practical approach to finding solutions to the region’s crises.”
“The complex regional situations require the adoption of a practical and logical
approach that does not accept the marginalization of Arab efforts seeking to
confront challenges and avoid the evils of crises and strife,” tweeted the
adviser. “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s visit stems from the UAE’s tendency
to perpetuate the Arab role in the Syrian file, and it also comes from an
Emirati conviction of the need for political communication, openness and
dialogue at the regional level,” he explained. “This stage requires courageous
steps to consolidate stability and prosperity and ensure the future of the
region and the well-being of its people,” added Gargash. On Friday, Assad paid
his first visit to an Arab country, the UAE, after 11 years of estrangement, the
suspension of Syria's membership in the Arab League, and most Arab countries
severing diplomatic relations with Damascus. The UAE had restored diplomatic
relations with Damascus in 2018 and reopened its embassy there. Foreign Minister
Abdullah bin Zayed visited Damascus last November. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al
Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister, and Ruler of Dubai, received Assad, at
Al Marmoom Rest House, Dubai. During the meeting, Sheikh Mohammed welcomed Assad
and his accompanying delegation, saying their visit is part of the framework of
the brotherly relations between the two countries. Sheikh Mohammed expressed his
sincere wishes for peace, security, stability, and prosperity to prevail in
Syria and the entire region. The meeting focused with the overall relations
between the two countries and the prospects of expanding cooperation to fulfil
the aspirations of the two brotherly peoples, achieve their comprehensive
development goals, and enhance the chances of peace and stability in Syria and
the region in general.
How to Use Syrian Oil as an 'Entry Point' to Breaking
the Deadlock
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20
March, 2022
In the face of the stability of the “borderlines” between the three Syrian zones
of influence for two years, the continuation of the political stalemate and the
emergence of a global energy crisis, a set of ideas is being circulated aimed at
turning Syrian oil into a point of consensus between the players and an “entry
point to break the deadlock”. This can be achieved through understandings that
lead to an increase in oil production to about 500,000 barrels per day within
three years to provide about 20 billion US dollars annually, distribute the
revenues for the benefit of all Syrians, and support “early recovery” projects
in accordance with the international resolution on humanitarian aid.
'War lords'
After the eruption of the conflict in 2011, Western countries imposed sanctions
on the Syrian oil sector, and foreign companies, which were producing about
400,000 barrels per day, left the country.
Currently, the Syrian Democratic Forces, with the support of the US-led
coalition, control a quarter of Syria's area, but significantly 90 percent of
the oil and more than half of the gas. Syrian Oil Minister Bassam Tohme said a
few days ago that the oil sector's losses since the beginning of the crisis
amounted to $91.5 billion. He revealed that the direct losses to equipment in
the oil sector amounted to 19.3 billion dollars, "of which 3 billion are the
value of damages inflicted by the international coalition's strikes." The
indirect losses amounted to 72 billion dollars. The minister said the daily
production of oil last year amounted to 89,000 barrels, the majority of which
took place in Kurdish-controlled areas and is described by Tohme as “stolen”.
Since early 2017, the SDF has taken over oil fields east of the Euphrates River
and their infrastructure owned by contracts with the government by foreign
companies, including Gulfsands, Total, and Shell. Oil wells and facilities were
also cordoned off. The Autonomous Administration of the SDF uses some of the
production locally. Mediators and parties that have profited from and enriched
themselves during the war transfer some of the oil to government areas to refine
an amount and keep the other. Oil is also smuggled into Iraqi Kurdistan, for
local consumption or for smuggling to Turkey. Oil is sold at very low prices,
and wells are damaged
'Oil Protection'
On October 6, 2019, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham played a role in
persuading President Donald Trump to keep 900 members of the US military in
eastern Syria, after his decision to withdraw from the border with Turkey. Trump
later said that "a small number of soldiers will remain in the areas that
contain oil," stressing that "we have ensured the security and protection of
oil." In July 2020, Graham, who is close to Trump, announced before Congress
that SDF commander Mazloum Abdi informed him of the signing of an agreement with
the American company Delta Crescent Energy to invest in oil after obtaining an
exception from the Treasury Department (which was not extended by the
administration of Joe Biden). He added: "The American company will work to
improve the feasibility of the oil fields to make them more productive. It makes
sense that, rather than just writing checks, we should help people help
themselves." Meanwhile, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that "the
agreement took more time than ex ected" and aims to "modernize oil." The
situation embarrassed the Syrian Ministry of Defense, which said that "Syrian
oil belongs to the Syrian people, and we remain committed to the unity and
territorial integrity of Syria." It added that "the United States government
does not own, control, or manage the oil resources in Syria, and the population
in areas liberated from ISIS make their own decisions regarding local
governance."
After that, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced: "We are taking measures
to strengthen our position in Deir Ezzor to prevent ISIS access to the oil
fields." The Pentagon confirmed sending reinforcements and mechanisms to protect
the oil fields, so that about 500 soldiers remained east of the Euphrates, with
an increase in the number and quality of military equipment to provide
protection for the oil wells.
'Quadruple Rage'
The oil agreement, brokered by the US, was widely criticized by Damascus,
Moscow, Tehran and Ankara as "political recognition of the Kurdish
administration". They said it "contradicts the understanding of the guarantors
of Astana, Russia, Iran and Turkey, to oppose any separatist agenda in Syria."
Moscow considered it "a theft of Syrian wealth." It also angered foreign
companies that hold sovereign rights in the oil fields. Among those companies is
Gulfsands, which had signed a contract with the Syrian government in 2003 to
invest and develop Block 26 east of the Euphrates. According to its 2019 Annual
Report, unauthorized production since early 2017 has been around 20,000 barrels
a day, meaning that around 35 million barrels have been produced since then.
Gulfsands expressed "concern" about this unlawful activity, and particularly the
involvement of Delta Crescent Energy.
Profits...and ideas
According to experts' estimates, the Autonomous Administration receives 16
dollars per barrel, and 15 dollars goes to the Syrian government. The rest,
which could amount to up to 50 dollars per barrel, is "lost" and ends up in the
hands of war profiteers. It is again reported in the Gulfsands Annual Report
that Block 26 could, with appropriate investment, be increased in production
from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. If this could be replicated across the
region, it could mean an industry that produces 500,000 barrels per day which at
todays' high oil prices could raise round 18 billion dollars of gross revenue
per year.
Challenges
Rebuilding the Syrian oil industry this way faces many obstacles. It would need
agreement between the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and
Damascus and also require international support. In particular, this project
requires political understandings between the US, which imposes sanctions on the
oil sector, and Russia, which accuses Washington of "stealing oil." Some experts
suggest the establishment of a structure that falls within the context of UN
envoy Geir Pedersen's proposal for "step-for-step" measures, to include aspects
of financing "early recovery" projects under the new Security Council resolution
for humanitarian aid drafted by Washington and Moscow, and providing new sources
of relief funding from Syria. Significantly, the European Union had in the past
11 years allocated 25 billion euros to Syrians, 14 billion dollars from America,
and 3.7 billion pounds from Britain. A fully functioning and revitalized oil
industry could exceed these contributions. The proposal suggests a formal
structure of specially selected and audited service providers, such as.
returning foreign oil companies, preferred oil traders, and financiers who, in
exchange for sanctions exemptions and approvals, would ensure full transparency
and accountability for the exploration, development, production, marketing and
sale of oil and gas through established international channels. There is no
doubt that such an initiative is ambitious and would need to navigate
international sanctions, as well as provide transparency and benefits for all
participants to them to have confidence in its implementation and provide their
support. However, the prize is huge, particularly for the Syrian people, and
surely is worth attention and consideration from all sides.
6 Dead in Belgium as Car Hits Early Morning Carnival
Crowd
Agence France Presse/March 20, 2022
A car ploughed into a crowd of early morning carnival-goers in Belgium on
Sunday, killing six people and injuring dozens of others, authorities said. The
tragedy took place just after 5:00 am (0400 GMT) at the carnival of
Strepy-Bracquegnies, a district of the former industrial town of La Louviere.
"At this stage of the investigation, we know that a vehicle slammed into a group
(of carnival goers) and that there are six dead and 26 injured, including 10
people whose life is in danger," prosecutor Damien Verheyen told reporters in La
Louviere The main suspects, who were arrested, were born in 1988 and 1990, he
said, adding that terrorism was not at this stage considered a motive. The
suspects came from La Louviere and are not known to authorities for similar
acts, Verheyen said. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo deplored the
"horrible news" on Twitter, saying "a community gathering to celebrate has been
hit in the heart." De Croo was expected to visit the scene later on Sunday
accompanied by Belgium's King Philippe, the prime minister's office said.
Belgian towns and villages host many street carnivals around the season of Lent,
with the parades in Binche and Alost the most known internationally.
'High speed'
Like Binche, the carnival of Strepy-Bracquegnies involves participants dressed
up as "Gilles", comical figures who are "called out" to the parade in the early
hours. "I was walking by," one witness, Theo, told RTBF news. "I turned around
and saw a car running into the troop. It came very fast and didn't brake. It
continued and it took a girl 100 meters further," he said. La Louviere mayor
Jacques Gobert said there were 150 to 200 people participating in the pre-dawn
prologue to two days of festivities. The car came "at high speed" and the driver
of the vehicle ploughed into the group and "pulverized a significant number of
people," he said. Gobert said he asked organizers that the remainder of the
carnival events -- the first to take place after two years of coronavirus-related
cancellations -- should not take place. Recently, a similar tragedy took place
in neighboring Germany, when a man in February 2020 rammed his car through a
carnival procession, injuring dozens of bystanders including children. Germany
and other countries at the time had been on high alert for car ramming attacks
since December 2016, when an Islamic State group sympathizer plowed a truck
through a Christmas market leaving 12 dead. German towns had seen several such
attacks since, with most carried out by people who were found to have
psychological issues.
Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on the International Day of La
Francophonie
March 20, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the
following statement to mark the International Day of La Francophonie:
“Today, Canada joins Francophones in Canada and around the world to celebrate
the French language as well as the richness and diversity of francophone
cultures. Throughout our history, Francophones and Francophiles have helped
shape our country and make it dynamic, inclusive, united and open to the world.
“The French language is not only a central element of our national identity, but
it also plays a leading role in international relations. Its influence has made
it possible to create diplomatic, interpersonal and cultural ties and to promote
the values of peace and solidarity, which are the foundation of La
Francophonie.“As the world is experiencing a period marked by profound upheaval,
it is essential that we unite through our common values . We pay tribute to
the courage of the people of Ukraine, an observer member of the International
Organization of La Francophonie [OIF], who are showing extraordinary resilience
and determination in the face of the unjustified and unprovoked invasion of
their territory by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “This day gives us the
opportunity to reiterate our deep attachment to the international Francophonie
and to the OIF, as an important multilateral institution that that must play its
role in finding solutions to today's global challenges. Together with all state
and government members of La Francophonie, we can work to build a better world,
guided by the values of peaceful pluralism, respect for democracy and human
rights, diversity, inclusion and solidarity.”
Yemen Rebels Launch Wide Strikes on Saudi Sites; No One
Hurt
Associated Press/March 20, 2022
Yemen's Houthi rebels unleashed a barrage of drone and missile strikes on Saudi
Arabia that targeted key facilities including natural gas and desalination
plants early Sunday, Saudi state-run media reported, temporarily reducing oil
production at one site in the latest escalation as peace talks stall and the war
in Yemen rages into its eighth year. The attacks did not cause casualties, the
Saudi-led military coalition fighting in Yemen said, but damaged civilian
vehicles and homes in the area. A Saudi energy official later acknowledged that
a drone strike targeting the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company on the Red
Sea coast caused "a temporary reduction in the refinery's production."The
disruption, coming as oil prices spike in an already-tight energy market, "will
be compensated for," the ministry said in a statement.
The salvo also came as Saudi Arabia's state-backed oil giant Aramco announced
that its profits surged 124% in 2021 to $110 billion, a jump fueled by renewed
anxieties about global supply shortages and soaring oil prices.
Aramco, also known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., released its earnings report
after weeks of intense volatility in energy markets triggered by Russia's
invasion of Ukraine. Punitive sanctions on Russia, among the world's largest
exporters of crude and petroleum products, have added turmoil to the market.
The international oil benchmark Brent crude hovered over $107 on Sunday after
nearly touching a peak of $140 earlier this month. Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates have so far resisted Western appeals to increase oil production to
offset the loss of Russian oil as gasoline prices skyrocket.
Brig. Yehia Sarie, a spokesman for Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, said the rebels
had launched "a wide and large military operation into the depth of Saudi
Arabia" on Sunday, firing ballistic missiles and bomb-laden drones toward Saudi
Aramco facilities and other "sensitive targets" in the country.
He described the assault as retaliation for the Saudi-led "aggression and
blockade" that has turned much of Yemen into a wasteland.
The Saudi-led military coalition said Houthi aerial strikes targeted a range of
facilities: an Aramco liquified gas plant in the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a power
station in the country's southwest, a desalination facility in Al-Shaqeeq on the
Red Sea coast, an Aramco oil facility in the southern border town of Jizan and a
gas station in the southern city of Khamis Mushait. The extent of damage on
Saudi infrastructure and energy facilities remained unclear. The official Saudi
Press Agency posted photos of firetrucks dousing leaping flames with water and a
trail of rubble wrought by shrapnel that crashed through ceilings and pocked
apartment walls. Other images showed wrecked cars and giant craters in the
ground. "There were no injuries or fatalities and there was no impact on the
company's supplies to customers," Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser told
reporters in remarks carried by Saudi state media.
The barrage comes days after the Saudi-based Gulf Cooperation Council said it
invited Yemen's warring sides for talks in Riyadh aimed at ending the war — an
offer dismissed out of hand by the Houthis, who demanded that negotiations take
place in a "neutral" country.
Peace talks have floundered since the Houthis have tried to capture oil-rich
Marib, one of the last remaining strongholds of the Saudi-backed Yemeni
government in the country's north. Yemen's brutal war erupted in 2015, after the
Iran-backed Houthis seized the country's capital, Sanaa, and swept across much
of the north. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states launched a devastating air
campaign to dislodge the Houthis and restore the internationally recognized
government. But years later, the war has settled into a bloody stalemate, with
Saudi Arabia and its allies struggling to turn the tide. It has created one of
the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with a recent U.N. report estimating
that hundreds of thousands of people have died as a result of the war. Coalition
airstrikes have decimated infrastructure and struck civilian targets in Yemen
like hospitals, telecommunications centers and wedding parties, drawing
widespread international criticism. Repeated cross-border Houthi attacks
meanwhile have targeted the kingdom's key oil refineries and export terminals.
Although rarely causing substantial damage, the strikes on Aramco sites have
rattled world energy markets and raised the risk of disruptions to Saudi output.
As part of its 2021 report, Aramco said it stuck to its promise of paying
quarterly dividends of $18.75 billion — $75 billion last year — due to
commitments the company made to shareholders in the run-up to its initial public
offering. Nearly all of the dividend money goes to the Saudi government, which
owns more than 98% of the company. Despite Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman's increasing efforts to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, the
kingdom remains heavily dependent on oil exports to fuel government spending.
The low oil prices of recent years have stung Aramco, forcing the kingdom to
scale back its spending on projects and subsidies. But riding on its 2021 income
surge, Aramco said on Sunday it expects to raise its capital expenditure to
between $40 and $50 billion this year, a sizable increase from last year's
spending of $31.9 billion. "Although economic conditions have improved
considerably, the outlook remains uncertain due to various macro-economic and
geopolitical factors," said Nasser, Aramco's CEO.Aramco shares were up over 3%
on Sunday to trade around 43.20 riyals ($11.50) a share on Riyadh's Tadawul
stock exchange.
Houthis under fire for ruining peace efforts to end war
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/March 20, 2022
AL-MUKALLA: The Iran-backed Houthis have been strongly criticized for striking
civilian facilities in Saudi Arabia and intensifying military operations in
Yemen as the UN special envoy for Yemen proposed a humanitarian truce during the
holy month of Ramadan.Yemen’s government officials, human rights activists,
journalists and the public have slammed the Houthis for torpedoing the current
peace efforts by the UN and Gulf Cooperation Council to reach a peaceful
settlement to end the war. Last week, the Gulf bloc invited warring factions in
Yemen, including the Houthis, for peace talks under its aegis in Riyadh, a step
that revived hopes of finding an end to the country’s aggravating humanitarian
crisis. The Houthis quickly turned down the offer, launching deadly cross-border
strikes on Saudi Arabia and escalating attacks on government-controlled areas in
Yemen.
Yemen’s Foreign Ministry criticized the Houthis’ “aggressive and terrorist
behavior” and their continuing resistance to all efforts to stop hostilities in
Yemen, calling the latest attacks as the militia’s “response” to the GCC offer.
“[The ministry] renews the firm and supportive position of the Republic of Yemen
for the sisterly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its solidarity in all measures it
takes to confront these cowardly terrorist acts, preserve the safety of its
citizens and residents and protect its vital facilities,” the Foreign Ministry
said in a statement carried by the official news agency SABA.
Other Yemenis argued that the escalating military operations and the
cross-border attacks show that the militia is not serious about peace and is
determined to thwart initiatives to end the war. Hamdan Al-Alaly said that the
Houthis refused to take part in the coming conference since they would have to
face the Yemeni forces that opposed their project. “They will find themselves
small and despicable in front of all the Yemeni components that reject them,”
Al-Alaly said, adding that the Houthis demanded direct talks with Saudi Arabia
so as to legitimize their military takeover of power. “They are looking for
regional countries’ recognition of their rule by asking for talks with the
coalition, not with the Yemenis.”Yemen’s Minister of State Gen. Abdul Ghani
Jamil said that the Houthis would do everything at their disposal to foil the
peace talks in Riyadh since those talks would bring together Yemenis against
their oppressive rule. “I think the message of the Houthis tonight is crystal
clear. They do not want an invitation that seeks to unify the ranks [of their
opponents] under the umbrella of the older sister, Saudi Arabia,” Jamil said.
Meanwhile, on the ground, fighting between the Houthis and the government flared
in flashpoint sites outside the central city of Marib as the Houthis push to
break months of military stalemate. A local military official told Arab News on
Sunday that the Houthis amassed huge military forces and intensified their drone
and missile strikes on government-controlled areas outside the city.
“We shot down two explosives-rigged drones. They also fired a ballistic missile
at a camp for displaced people in Marib city. The Houthis are preparing for a
major assault,” said the official, who requested anonymity, adding that army
troops and allied tribal fighters pushed back the latest Houthi attacks as the
coalition’s warplanes hit the militia’s locations and military equipment.
Fighting outside Marib and in the city of Taiz has escalated since the beginning
of the year as the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg engaged in
extensive direct talks with Yemeni parties aimed at finding a breakthrough that
could end the war. On Sunday, Grundberg said that he discussed with the
Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam and Omani officials in Muscat
arranging for a humanitarian truce during the holy month of Ramadan, which
begins early next month.
Deadly attacks on women rise sharply in Iraqi Kurdistan
AFP/March 20, 2022
SULAIMANIYAH: A woman burned alive by her husband, others shot dead by a father
or a teenage brother — bloody violence against women has spiked in northern
Iraq’s Kurdish region. The autonomous area, keen on projecting an image of a
relative haven of stability and tolerance in war-battered Iraq, has seen a sharp
rise in femicide, killings motivated by gender. “In the past two months, there
has been an increase in femicide compared to the previous year,” said Hiwa Karim
Jwamir of the Kurdish General Directorate for Combating Violence Against Women.
In the first two months of 2022, 11 women were killed in autonomous Iraqi
Kurdistan, most of them shot, said the official based in Sulaimaniyah.
Forty-five women were killed in 2021, up from 25 the previous year, said Jwamir.
On a Friday before dawn, a 15-year-old teenager was fatally wounded by six
bullets fired by her father in the village of Soran. The man told police his
daughter “went out with two boys late at night,” according to a domestic
violence unit which also records so-called “honor killings.” Across Iraq,
gender-based violence rose 125 percent to over 22,000 cases between 2020 and
2021, says the UN children’s agency UNICEF, which has also pointed to “a
worrisome increase in depression and suicide among women and girls.”Last
December, a 16-year-old girl was disfigured with acid in Baghdad by an adult who
wanted to marry her but had been rejected. For years, activists have denounced
violence against women and forced marriages in Iraq, which remains a
conservative and patriarchal society. “Cases of violence against women are on
the rise,” said long-time Kurdistan activist Bahar Munzir, director of local
group the People’s Development Organization. “Most of the women who are killed
are victims of a family member.”
A few days before International Women’s Day on March 8, the body of a
20-year-old woman was found on the side of the road in Irbil, the capital of
Kurdistan. Maria Sami, the victim, was known on social networks for her feminist
speeches. The following day, on March 9, Kirkuk police announced the arrest of
the killer, her 18-year-old brother. While he was still on the run, he spoke by
phone to a Kurdish television channel and tried to justify the killing by
charging his sister had failed to obey the family. In February, mother-of-two
Shinyar Huner Rafiq died in hospital, five days after being admitted with
serious burns. “Her husband had come home one evening in a state of
intoxication,” Shinyar’s father, Huner Rafiq, told AFP. “He doused her body in
gasoline and set it on fire.”After the father reported the killing, police
arrested the husband. “Before dying, Shinyar told us the facts,” said the
bereaved father. “We recorded it, and we submitted the video to the
investigators.” Kurdistan’s prime minister Masrour Barzani denounced the
“horrific case,” saying he was “deeply troubled” by the spate of violent attacks
against women. The government must impose “the heaviest possible penalty on
perpetrators,” he said in a statement. “There is no honor in honor killings.
“I’m determined to protect every woman, girl and child from abuse ... This
scourge must end.” In early February, Dohuk police said they had found the
corpse of Doski Azad, a 23-year-old transgender woman who had been ostracized by
family members. An arrest warrant was issued to find the suspected murderer: the
victim’s brother, who had in recent years been living in Europe. He had called
his family to inform them of his crime and of where the body was, according to
police. The murder was condemned by the UN mission in Iraq, and the consulates
of Western countries in Irbil. The news provoked a torrent of hatred online —
against the victim, even though some voices defended minorities’ rights. In June
2011, Kurdistan passed a law criminalizing domestic violence and female genital
mutilation. The law, which threatens life in prison for “honor” crimes, was
hailed by non-governmental groups as a major step forward. But the law’s
enforcement is hampered by a climate of impunity and a common fear of speaking
out. “When a woman is killed, the procedures of the security services are not
the same as when it’s a man, the trial is not the same,” said Munzir, the
activist. “Some cases don’t even make it to court. They are subject to tribal
resolution between the man’s family and that of his wife, the victim.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
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March 20-21/2022
The shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 20, 2022
While the Russia-Ukraine war has attracted the attention of the international
community, the shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel is escalating
and increasing tensions in the region. The danger of the expanding shadow war
between Iran and Israel is that it can spiral out of control, leading to a
full-fledged war between the two countries.
In an unprecedented move, Israel reportedly destroyed hundreds of Iranian drones
with an attack on an airbase near Kermanshah, in western Iran. The Iranian
regime did not disclose the attack, most likely not to lose face or show
weakness. The Nour news agency reported: “On Monday morning, a fire broke out in
a stockroom where motor oil and other flammable materials were stored in one of
the support bases of the Revolutionary Guards in the Mahidasht region of
Kermanshah province, causing damage to an industrial shed.”
To project power and appease its hardline base, the regime always attempts to
take immediate revenge; Tehran responded by launching a dozen missiles into
Iraq’s Kurdish region, arguing that it was aimed at Israeli centers. A
“strategic center for conspiracy and mischief of the Zionists was targeted by
powerful precision missiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,”
the IRGC said in a statement.
Irbil Gov. Omed Khoshnaw stated that there are no Israeli sites in the area.
Instead, a new building housing the US Consulate was targeted. “We’ve been
hearing for some time that Israeli sites are present. These are baseless
allegations. There are no Israeli sites in the region,” Khoshnaw said.
To retaliate against Israel, the Iranian regime does not have to directly attack
Israeli sites. Instead, Tehran can aim at the US, a robust ally of Israel, to
force Washington to pressure Israel and to send a strong message to the US and
Israel that both can be targets of Iran’s retaliation.
The Iranian regime possesses thousands of missiles that can strike Israeli or
American sites. The commander of the US Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie
told the Senate Armed Services Committee: “At a military level, my concern is —
first of all — that they do not have a nuclear weapon, but I am also very
concerned about the remarkable growth and efficiency of their ballistic missile
program. They have over 3,000 missiles of various types, some of which can reach
Tel Aviv.”
The Iran-Israel shadow war has also been escalating in another country: Syria.
Recently, Israel carried out an airstrike in Syria that killed four people,
including two IRGC officers. Iran’s state-controlled Sepah News, which is
connected to the IRGC, warned that Israel would “pay for this crime” and
identified the two Iranians killed as Gen. Ehsan Karbalaipour and Gen. Morteza
Saeidnejad.
There exist several underlying issues behind the expanding shadow war between
the Iranian regime and Israel. The most important issue is related to Iran’s
nuclear program and the revival of the nuclear deal. Despite the Iranian
leaders’ claim that their nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes,
from the Israeli government’s perspective, the Iranian regime is pursuing a
covert agenda to obtain nuclear weapons.
The Israeli leaders’ concern is warranted due to the Iranian government’s
history of clandestine nuclear activities. Tehran, from the beginning, decided
to conceal its nuclear activities. For instance, its clandestine nuclear
activities at two major sites, Natanz and Arak, were first revealed in 2000 by
an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
Israel is concerned about the severe consequences of the Iranian nuclear deal
and Tehran’s increasing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
In 2017, the council also released critical information showing that Iran’s
nuclear activities had continued at the highly protected Parchin military base.
The group stated that a location at Parchin was being secretly used to continue
the country’s nuclear weapons project. It said: “The unit responsible for
conducting research and building a trigger for a nuclear weapon is called the
Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies for Explosion and Impact,
known by its Farsi acronym as METFAZ.”
In addition, Israel’s seizure of documents from a nuclear archive in Tehran in
2018 directly pointed to the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program. The
Institute for Science and International Security subsequently warned: “Iran
intended to build five nuclear warheads, each with an explosive yield of 10
kilotons and able to be delivered by ballistic missile.”Israel is also concerned
that the nuclear deal will not only relieve the Iranian regime financially but
will fail to prevent the regime from advancing its nuclear program. Secondly,
the nuclear deal will provide Tehran with the money it desperately needs to
empower and embolden its proxy group in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. In a
nutshell, Israel is concerned about the severe consequences of the Iranian
nuclear deal and Tehran’s increasing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. This
has led to the expanding shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel, which
risks spiraling out of control and leading to full-fledged war.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh
Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March 20, 2022
Wars are among the most heinous and cruel events that we follow on a daily
basis, affected by and then forming our opinion of the parties involved. Here
emerges the important role of war correspondents who convey to the world the
details of what is happening on the battlefield. These brave professionals tell
us the brutal stories they have witnessed and paint a clear picture of the
destruction and bloodshed on the ground. Indeed, journalism is one of the most
dangerous professions to practice, especially during coverage of armed
conflicts. War reporters have become unarmed soldiers who participate in fights
with their pens and cameras, risking their lives to obtain information to convey
the facts from the heart of the battle through various global media outlets,
including social media platforms.
During the Second World War and Vietnam, American reporters were embedded with
US troops, wearing military uniforms and enjoying instant access to medical care
if needed. This process carried over into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and
will continue in future conflicts in well-defined battle zones.
It is noteworthy that the Geneva Conventions of 1949 state that journalists
captured while accompanying an army were entitled to the same protections as
soldiers and were effectively prisoners of war.
However, this practice is much safer than covering unconventional conflicts and
urban warfare, where reporters usually do their work independently or with small
teams led by local producers or fixers.
Today with the development of technology and the possibility of using
smartphones for direct communication, and the significant reduction in the size
of cameras and photographic equipment, curious journalists can reach the closest
possible point to the location of an important event and sometimes be part of
it. I still remember small details of several warzone incidents I have witnessed
in the past 32 years.
I have learned from my experience covering the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and
going to several cities attacked by radical Islamist groups that war
correspondents get attached to the victims of the enemy’s atrocities, regardless
of who the enemy was. The more reporters stay in conflict zones, the more
humanitarian events become very personal. It has not been a month yet since the
start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and we have lost several journalists
who were trying to communicate the facts and shed light on the humanitarian
situation of millions of Ukrainians. Families fled the brutal Russian offensive
to protect their children and loved ones and took refuge in neighboring
countries or in somewhat safer Ukrainian regions. On March 13, Brent Renaud, an
award-winning American filmmaker and journalist was killed in a suburb of the
Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, while his colleague Juan Arredondo was shot and rushed
to the hospital. Arredondo said that he and Renaud were shot in a car after
leaving a checkpoint on their way to film civilians fleeing the targeted
neighborhoods and cities.
Days later, Ukrainian producer and fixer Oleksandra “Sasha” Kuvshynova, 24, and
Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski, 55, were killed in the village of Gorenka,
outside Kyiv. They were working alongside US Fox News State Department
correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was rushed to the nearest hospital to treat his
wounds. According to a statement issued by the network, the three-person team
was hit by artillery shelling fired by Russian troops in the village.
The French anti-terrorism court, specializing in crimes against humanity cases,
stated that an investigation had been opened in France into a possible war crime
after the death of Zakrzewski, a French-Irish journalist. The investigation
could be carried out given the journalist’s French citizenship, into a
“deliberate attack on the life of a person protected under international law,”
and a “deliberate attack on a civilian who was not taking a direct part in
hostilities,” according to a statement issued by the court.
Last week, UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay highlighted the vital role of
the war correspondent in reflecting the reality. “Journalists have a critical
role in providing information during a conflict and should never be targeted,”
she said, calling for the respect of international humanitarian standards to
ensure that journalists and media workers are protected.
Sometimes a camera accompanied by bravery, determination and passion is more
powerful. One might ask, why do these reporters expose themselves to unsafe and
sometimes deadly circumstances? Well, here is the deal: The majority of war
correspondents feel responsible for witnessing human suffering and giving
civilians a voice by reporting what is happening in real-time, hoping to make a
difference. The world is not getting safer for journalists trying to report on
these dangerous conflicts. The ultimate sacrifices to reveal the truth remind us
of the risks that war journalists are never afraid to take.
Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns; sometimes a camera accompanied by
bravery, determination and passion is more powerful. To all journalists out
there, chapeau bas (hats off).
*Dalia Al-Aqidi is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter: @DaliaAlAqidi
The changing security scenario in Europe
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 20, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine has changed several paradigms in Europe, with
the most important being the security architecture of the continent, with a
possible return to the Cold War era. After the terrible experience that we are
going through at present in Ukraine, a new balance will probably emerge in
Eastern Europe.
The British theorist of geopolitics, Harold Mackinder, used to say that whoever
rules East Europe commands the heartland — meaning the present Russian
Federation. His theory is still being tested. Many parameters of geopolitics may
have changed since 1904, when he published his article “The Geographical Pivot
of History,” but geography continues to be regarded as destiny in international
relations. The dominance of Eastern Europe is still a bone of contention between
Russia on the one hand and US, NATO and the EU on the other.
The atmosphere of moderation that prevailed after the dismemberment of the
Soviet Union has been short-lived and has been transformed into growing mutual
mistrust.
The most likely scenario for the security architecture of Europe in the
foreseeable future is that Russia will insist on preventing Ukraine from joining
NATO. There may be tough bargaining for keeping Ukraine out of the EU as well.
To what extent a sovereign country can be banned from becoming a member of an
international organization — or a political gathering — is a valid question, but
there is no easy answer to it. Ukraine would thus become a state with restricted
sovereignty. In the longer term, Ukraine’s status would depend on the outcome of
Russia-EU bargaining.
The US, on behalf of NATO, has refrained from all sorts of direct military
confrontation with Russia. It also refrained from declaring a no-fly zone over
Ukrainian airspace, while it did so easily in Iraq to protect the Kurds from
Saddam Hussein’s attacks. Washington may have feared that such an attempt could
lead to a nuclear confrontation. The US may be using this crisis to weaken
Russia in a protracted war at the expense of Ukraine’s security. It approved
sending Polish fighter jets to Ukraine, without considering the risks that it
involves.
The new security structure of Europe is likely to be debated in NATO forums.
Germany has already taken a bold step by increasing its military budget to 2
percent of its economic output, a step encouraged by the US and rejected by
successive German governments for decades.
The US has allocated $13.6 billion for Ukraine in this year’s budget. Other big
European economies may do the same in the future, but the destruction of the
physical infrastructure of Ukraine will go far beyond these figures.
After successive debacles suffered by the US on various fronts such as in
Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, European members of NATO may open a debate on the
merits of the US leadership. The emergence of China in the international power
balance may further complicate this debate.
Another important component of the military confrontation is the increasing role
of mercenaries in modern warfare. Mercenaries have been used since ancient
times, but there has been a recent tendency to leave the bulk of the job to
them. The US made massive use of Blackwater mercenaries in Iraq. Russian Wagner
mercenaries helped Khalifa Haftar in Libya and they are now involved in Ukraine.
Turkey has followed suit by establishing its own corps of mercenaries called
International Defense Consultancy company — SADAT.
A Turkish newspaper last week reported that a label found on the body of a dead
soldier — probably a mercenary — killed in Ukraine reads in English, French and
Arabic: “Please help and contact us.” There was a telephone number with a Syrian
international dial code and an email address. I called the telephone number. The
answering machine said that the number was out of use.
Germany, which dragged Europe into two world wars, may now become an important
actor in the defense of Europe.
Ukrainians are doing their best to defend their country, but it seems that an
important part of the war will be fought by foreign mercenaries of all kinds.
Ukrainian authorities have invited mercenaries from all over the world. This is
natural for a country squeezed between a rock and a hard place. However, once
the crisis is over, the presence of mercenaries in Ukraine may lead to
insurmountable difficulties.
It is not realistic to expect that President Vladimir Putin will lead the
Russian society toward a more liberal democracy. Therefore, East-West relations
will probably be shaped according to whether post-Putin Russia will evolve
toward a more liberal society or the deep-rooted imperialistic impulses of the
Russian state tradition. When I was at the NATO Defense College more than
half-a-century ago, one of the lecturers used to tell us that NATO was created
to protect Europe by “keeping the US in, Russia out and Germany down.” Germany,
which dragged Europe into two world wars, may now become an important actor in
the defense of Europe.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the
ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar
Iran's Long Arm in Turkey, Turkey's Fake "Peace"
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 20/2022
What, then, revived Iran's covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the "good
Turkey" was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The "bad"
one is claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states and Egypt.
Iran's mullahs are notoriously good at poisoning peace and stability, at home
and in their own neighborhood as well as in distant lands, such as Cuba and
Venezuela. After a short pause, the long arm of the mullahs is back to Turkey.
Twelve (foiled) plots in such a short time is a "message."
Iran is trying to sabotage the Abraham Accords and their positive
transformations in the region by means of subversion in Turkey against Israeli
nationals. The Iranians are also vehemently trying to discourage Turkey from
reconciling with the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt....
When the UAE moved to normalize relations with Israel, Turkey threatened to
downgrade diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi; and Turkey has been at odds with Egypt
since 2013. These frictions have placed Turkey on the side of Hamas and the
Muslim Brotherhood, while on the other side are the Gulf states, Israel and
Egypt. Totally isolated and facing a punishing economic crisis, Erdoğan
apparently decided to look as if he were changing course and reconcile with
Israel and the Gulf states. The effort shows that Erdoğan was on the wrong
course to begin with: He apparently thought Turkey's enemies were Israel and
Sunni Arabs while now he should see that the real enemy is Shia Islam, in the
form of Iran's theocracy.
Finally, there is a lesson to Westerners who seem blind to Turkey and Iran.
These rogue states are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil. What more do
they have to do for the international community to hold them to account?
The lesson for governments is: Ignore Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep
overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep isolating him to keep him from doing
further harm. Isolate him to soften his rigidity on refusing the EastMed
pipeline. In other words, if you want to avoid more Turkish damage in the
neighborhood, do more to isolate Turkey than you have done in the past decade.
And one more thing: The Mediterranean alliance should remain monolithic and,
above all, ignore Erdoğan's threats.
Turkey and Iran, rogue states, are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil.
What more do they have to do for the international community to hold them to
account? The lesson for governments is: Ignore Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep
isolating him to keep him from doing further harm. Pictured: Erdoğan meets with
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on January 29, 2014.
(Image source: Iranian Supreme Leader's website/AFP via Getty Images)
Yair Geller, 75, an Israeli businessman who owns an advanced technologies and
engineering company in Turkey, CNC İleri Teknoloji, did not know that his
residence in Istanbul was long under surveillance by a cell of assassins
operated by the Iranian regime. The assassins did not know that they were long
under surveillance by MIT, Turkey's national intelligence agency.
This double cat-and-mouse game went on until the assassins decided that the time
was ripe to act and murder Geller. Turkish intelligence, however, decided that
the time was ripe to share this information with Israel's Mossad intelligence
agency. At a meeting in Ankara, MIT and Mossad concluded that the planned
assassination of Geller was supposed to be Iran's retaliation for the November
2020 killing, allegedly by Israel, of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's leading nuclear
scientist. Before they could act, nine suspects were detained.
According to Israel's Channel 12 News, the Mossad has helped foil to 12 plots to
carry out terror attacks on Israelis in Turkey over the past two years.
Iran's covert operations on Turkish soil are not just sorties of the present.
Even before the Geller case, the mullahs in Tehran sent were hunting down
Iranians in Turkey who opposed the mullahs' regime in Tehran [see appendix
below].
Iran has been continuously accused of supporting radical Islamist organizations
and terrorist groups to destabilize and weaken Turkey's then-secular regime.
Turkey's official establishment has often accused Iran of trying to "export its
theocratic regime to Turkey." Ironically, the Iranians did not need to worry too
much about Islamizing Turkey. The Turks could do it themselves.
In 2002, Turks, by popular vote, brought to power Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an
avowed Islamist, and Iranian subversive activity in Turkey gradually faded away,
Erdoğan has since proven invincible at the ballot box, and has successfully
implemented a stealth plan to advance political Islam in the only Muslim member
of NATO.
Turkey's Islamist rulers quietly supported Iranian expansionism for several
years based on dictum of "the enemy (Iran) of my enemy (Israel) is my friend."
What, then, revived Iran's covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the "good
Turkey" was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The "bad"
one is the one now claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states
and Egypt. The "bad Turkey" is even proposing to buy Israeli natural gas for its
own consumption and transport it to Europe.
It was not a coincidence that Turkey had to order gas-fuelled power plants this
year to slash gas use by 40% after Iran cut gas exports flows to Turkey for 10
days due to a "technical failure" in the middle of an exceptionally cold
January.
Since then, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has taken
responsibility for this month's ballistic missile attacks on Iraq's Kurdish
regional capital of Erbil. Iran said on March 13 that it was targeting an
Israeli "strategic center" in Iraq. "Any repetition of attacks by Israel will be
met with a harsh, decisive and destructive response," an IRGC statement said,
referring to the alleged recent killing of two of its members in Syria.
Iran's mullahs are notoriously good at poisoning peace and stability, at home
and in their own neighborhood as well as in distant lands, such as Cuba and
Venezuela. After a short pause, the long arm of the mullahs is back in Turkey.
Twelve (foiled) plots in such a short time is a "message." Iran is trying to
sabotage the Abraham Accords and their positive transformations in the region by
means of subversion in Turkey against Israeli nationals. The Iranians are also
vehemently trying to discourage Turkey from reconciling with the Gulf states,
Egypt and Israel; they have used even their natural gas card by cutting flows to
Turkey.
Turkey in recent years has been in a cold war with the Gulf states, except for
Qatar. When the UAE moved to normalize relations with Israel, Turkey threatened
to downgrade diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi, and Turkey has been at odds with
Egypt since 2013. These frictions have placed Turkey on the side of Hamas and
the Muslim Brotherhood, while on the other side are the Gulf states, Israel and
Egypt.
Totally isolated and facing a punishing economic crisis, Erdoğan apparently
decided to look as if he were changing course and reconcile with Israel and the
Gulf states. The effort shows that Erdoğan was on the wrong course to begin
with: He apparently thought Turkey's enemies were Israel and Sunni Arabs while
now he should see that the real enemy is Shia Islam, in the form of Iran's
theocracy.
Erdoğan, despite all his fake peace efforts, is now lost and alone, even among
his Sunni (Arab) and Shia (Iranian) fellow Muslims. He thought the Iranians,
just because they are Muslim, were his friends. He was wrong. Those "friends"
targeted Turkey 12 times in two years and cut the gas supply in the middle of
winter.Fortunately, all the other state actors know very well that Erdoğan
cannot be trusted. They can see that he feels squeezed and is faking peace. This
view is not about changing him or his intentions. It is about telling him that
hostilities in the Mediterranean region are too big for him to bite; that he
should stay chained to his fake peace and not create new frictions; that there
is a stick hanging over his head; that even his "Muslim friends" hate him, and
that he is the bête noire in the neighborhood.
Finally, there is a lesson to Westerners who seem blind to Turkey and Iran.
These rogue states are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil. What more do
they have to do for the international community to hold them to account?
The lesson for governments is: Ignore Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep
overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep isolating him to keep him from doing
further harm. Isolate him to soften his rigidity on refusing the EastMed
pipeline. In other words, if you want to avoid more Turkish damage in the
neighborhood, do more to isolate Turkey than you have done in the past decade.
And one more thing: The Mediterranean alliance should remain monolithic and,
above all, ignore Erdoğan's threats.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Appendix
In the 1990s, after a series of assassinations against well-known secular
Turkish intellectuals, including Bahriye Üçok, Çetin Emeç, Turan Dursun and Uğur
Mumcu, the Turkish security elite hinted at Iranian involvement in these
attacks. Confessions of the perpetrators of some terror attacks arguably
revealed political and logistical connections between Iran and the militants.
Recently, the Iranians sent Ali Ghahramanihajtabad to hunt down opponents of
Iran's regime who resided in Turkey. The Ghahramanihajtabad cell successfully
kidnapped an Iranian national in western Anatolia and delivered him to Iranian
agents, who took promptly carted back to Iran.
A second target was Shahnam Golshani, an Iranian opponent of Iran's regime who
lived in Zonguldak, a port on the Black Sea. The kidnapping had been tasked to a
team of Turkish police and non-commissioned military officers.
During the drive there, the Iranian agent was tipped off by an unknown caller; a
last-minute abort order failed, and Turkish security forces detained 11 people
including the Turkish prosecutor.
In addition, on September 24, 2021, Turkish intelligence and security forces
also detained two Iranian agents and their six Turkish operators while the team
was about to kidnap a former Iranian military officer, referred to as M.A.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
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or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Is the War in Ukraine Nearing its End or Will it Get
More Destructive?
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 20/2022
The war in Ukraine is into its fourth week. Destruction continues. Civilian
infrastructure and buildings are targeted. Civilian casualties are increasing.
Around three million Ukrainians have fled their country. Russia insists that
civilians are not being targeted and everything is going according to plan. That
is hardly the case. The Russian military has been able to advance on several
fronts, but is facing fierce resistance. Russia is suffering losses and taking
heavy casualties on the field. It is said that it has lost around 30 percent of
its military capacity (human and machine) that it is engaged in Ukraine. It is
also said that Russian casualties for each day are somewhere between 300 to 500.
The increasing number of coffins carrying bodies of Russian conscripts back home
will make internal opposition even stronger. In case of a prolonged war and
especially in case of urban warfare, costs will be even higher. Kadirov’s
Chechens, Wagner mercenaries and Syrians are in Ukraine not without reason.
Russia has miscalculated and is isolated.
- It underestimated the determination and fighting spirit of Ukrainians.
- It underestimated Zelensky, whose wartime leadership performance has inspired
Ukrainians.
- It underestimated the West, which is united in standing up against Russia’s
aggression, unlike in the cases of Georgia and Crimea and also Syria.
Russia has very few friends left. The vote in the United Nations General
Assembly on March 2 was very clear about the feeling against Russia.
I would emphasize at this point the saddening incapacity of the United Nations,
whose main purpose, as enshrined in Article 1, is “to maintain international
peace and security, to take effective collective measures for the prevention and
removal of threats to the peace…”.
The structure of the Security Council has become the main obstacle to the
Organization in its efforts to do its job. The war in Ukraine is yet another
clear case for the need to reform the United Nations and in particular its
Security Council.
In the economic field, even though Russia is among the very top natural gas and
oil producers and has central bank reserves amounting to $643 billion dollars,
sanctions are hurting and this is only the beginning. Putin lashed out on his
own oligarchs which shows that sanctions imposed on them have been serving their
purpose.
Putin has taken a very serious risk. His reputation, leadership and political
future could be at stake. A clear failure of the campaign in Ukraine would
strengthen opposition and could eventually lead to his downfall. Thus, Putin
cannot go back empty handed.
NATO’s position: The Russian invasion of Ukraine had a uniting effect on NATO.
Allies are now mush closer to each other and with a renewed and strengthened
spirit of comradeship.
NATO (and its leading country, the United States) has made its position clear
from the outset that it will not send troops to Ukraine, nor will it close the
airspace as the Ukrainian president has asked for, because such steps would lead
to direct confrontation with Russia and war.
NATO also made it very clear that any harm to any of the Allies will activate
Article 5 (collective defense) and it will not hesitate to act.
On the other hand, individual NATO member states have a free hand in supplying
weapons for self-defense to Ukraine. The US has allocated millions of dollars
for this purpose and a couple of days ago, President Biden signed a bill for an
additional 200 million dollars for military equipment.
That same day, NATO defense ministers held an extraordinary meeting at the NATO
Headquarters in Brussels. Finland, Sweden, Georgia and the European Union were
also present. The Ukrainian minister of defense briefed them on the latest
developments.
Finland, Sweden and NATO, which already had an active and advanced cooperation
partnership, are now even closer. In Finland, a survey found that 62 percent of
respondents were in favor of Finland applying for NATO membership. NATO and the
European Union, under these extraordinary times, are also institutionally
closer.
NATO leaders will meet at an extraordinary session next week in Brussels. We may
expect clear messages of resolve and in case of a potential ceasefire agreement,
maybe even more.
There have been a number of diplomatic efforts including those of France,
Israel, Turkey and some others.
The Russian and Ukranian foreign ministers met for the first time since the war
began, actually for the first time in some years, at the margins of the Antalya
Security Forum on March 10. Later, the Turkish foreign minister went to Moscow,
then onto Lviv in Ukraina, and met with his counterparts.
As far as what is revealed to the public, the results of these meetings can be
summarized as messages rather than concrete advances.
In the meantime, Russian and Ukranian delegations met for the fourth time. They
have a draft paper and are discussing on a concrete basis. There is talk about a
15-point plan. Russia has confirmed it, Ukraine says it is only Russian demands
at this stage. In any case, there is something and it should not be long before
we know more.
Yesterday evening President Putin talked to Turkey’s President Erdoğan on the
phone. According to what the Turkish president’s top advisor shared with the
press after their conversation, Putin spelled out the following:
- Ukraine should be neutral and NATO membership should be dropped.
- Ukraine should undergo a disarmament process.
- There should be de-nazification in Ukraine and the Russian language must be
protected.
- Issues regarding (the status of) Donbas and Crimea are to be decided.
There are no surprises in what Putin has put forward. These are obvious issues
which any ceasefire or peace deal should include.
I have the following comments:
- The withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territories is
imperative, but which territories could be a matter of debate.
- The independent republics of Luhansk and Donetsk joining Russia at a later
stage is a possibility, but unlikely. A more likely scenario should be the
Donbas region as a whole remaining part of Ukraine, but with a status of
advanced autonomy, coupled with guaranteed rights for the Russian minority there
and elsewhere.
- In the case of Crimea, a reversal of Russia’s annexation seems to be quite
remote, if not impossible.
- Russian demands for a Russia friendly government and demilitarization of
Ukraine are not even remotely serious, I think.
- Russia’s demand for security guarantees (no NATO membership for Ukraine, no
deployment of NATO troops and weapons on its territory,
neutrality/non-alignment) are probably easier issues to agree on.
Moving beyond bilateral:
- An updated European security structure should be there to alleviate alleged
security concerns. The Vienna Document on confidence and security building
measures, disarmament and arms control measures and Open Skies like mechanisms
may be the answer.
To conclude, the international community has shown this time that aggression
will not go unanswered. Clearly, Ukraine is the victim and Russia the aggressor.
Putin’s aim may be to make Russia great again, but in reality, he is making
Russia and himself weaker and vulnerable.
There are some hope raising moves to bring the war to an end. For the sake of
success, both sides should be able to have something that can be presented as a
victory or achievement. That is where political leadership, tough decisions and
creative diplomacy are most needed.