English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 21/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
The Parable Of The Lost son
Luke15/11-32: He (Jesus) said, “A certain man had two sons. The younger of them said to his father, ‘Father, give me my share of your property.’ He divided his livelihood between them. Not many days after, the younger son gathered all of this together and traveled into a far country. There he wasted his property with riotous living. When he had spent all of it, there arose a severe famine in that country, and he began to be in need. He went and joined himself to one of the citizens of that country, and he sent him into his fields to feed pigs. He wanted to fill his belly with the husks that the pigs ate, but no one gave him any. 15:17 But when he came to himself he said, ‘How many hired servants of my father’s have bread enough to spare, and I’m dying with hunger! I will get up and go to my father, and will tell him, “Father, I have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no more worthy to be called your son. Make me as one of your hired servants .”’ “He arose, and came to his father. But while he was still far off, his father saw him, and was moved with compassion, and ran, and fell on his neck, and kissed him. The son said to him, ‘Father, I have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no longer worthy to be called your son.’ “But the father said to his servants, ‘Bring out the best robe, and put it on him. Put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet. Bring the fattened calf, kill it, and let us eat, and celebrate; for this, my son, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and is found.’ They began to celebrate. “Now his elder son was in the field. As he came near to the house, he heard music and dancing. He called one of the servants to him, and asked what was going on. He said to him, ‘Your brother has come, and your father has killed the fattened calf, because he has received him back safe and healthy.’ But he was angry, and would not go in. Therefore his father came out, and begged him. But he answered his father, ‘Behold, these many years I have served you, and I never disobeyed a commandment of yours, but you never gave me a goat, that I might celebrate with my friends. But w

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 20-21/2022
Values That We Can We Learn From "The Lost Son" Parable/Elias Bejjani/Saturday, 19 March, 2022
Al-Rahi Discusses Lebanon, Hizbullah with al-Sisi
President Aoun from Rome: I bring to His Holiness a message of love on behalf of the Lebanese, and I renew my invitation to the...
President Aoun: “Christianity in Lebanon is not in danger”.
President Aoun congratulates Lebanese mothers on their day: No matter the difficulties, a Lebanon that is recovering in your...
President Aoun on La Francophonie day: Lebanon is attached to its values, which are currently being subjected to the most severe blows in more than...
Corona - Health Ministry: 361 new Corona cases, 5 deaths
"No gasoline crisis tomorrow, stations will be open," reassures Fayyad
Lebanese Cabinet urges judiciary not to fall for populism as banks plan strike
Raad Says Electoral Battle against 'Hostile Project' Will be 'Very Difficult'
Geagea: May 15th elections a step to choose between hell, saving the country
Energy Minister reviews with his Qatari counterpart Lebanon's needs, ways of receiving Qatari support in energy field

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 20-21/2022
Signs of an Imminent Iran Nuclear Deal
Russia demands Ukrainian forces lay down arms in Mariupol
Ukraine’s Zelensky condemns ‘terror’ in besieged Mariupol as fighting rages
Zelenskyy says ‘time for Israel to make its choice’ and back Ukraine
Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could mean 'a third World War'
Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion
Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, destroys fuel storage site
Iran, Israel missile strikes put American troops at risk, top US general for Middle East says
Gargash: Assad Visit Stems from UAE Position to Perpetuate Arab Role in Syria
How to Use Syrian Oil as an 'Entry Point' to Breaking the Deadlock
6 Dead in Belgium as Car Hits Early Morning Carnival Crowd
Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on the International Day of La Francophonie
Yemen Rebels Launch Wide Strikes on Saudi Sites; No One Hurt
Houthis under fire for ruining peace efforts to end war
Deadly attacks on women rise sharply in Iraqi Kurdistan

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 20-21/2022
The shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 20, 2022
Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March 20, 2022
The changing security scenario in Europe/Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 20, 2022
Iran's Long Arm in Turkey, Turkey's Fake "Peace"/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 20/2022
Is the War in Ukraine Nearing its End or Will it Get More Destructive?/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 20/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 20-21/2022
Values That We Can We Learn From "The Lost Son" Parable
Elias Bejjani/Saturday, 19 March, 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/73276/elias-bejjani-values-that-we-can-we-learn-from-the-lost-son-parable/
In our Maronite Catholic Church’s rite, on the Fourth Lent Sunday we recall and cite the biblical Lost Son’s parable that is known also as The Prodigal Son. (Lost Son) This impulsive, selfish and thoughtless son, as the parable tells us, fell prey to evil’s temptation and decided to take his share of his father’s inheritance and leave the parental dwelling.
He travelled to a far-away city where he indulged badly in all evil conducts of pleasure and corruption until he lost all his money and became penniless. He experienced severe poverty, starvation, humiliation and loneliness.
In the midst of his dire hardships he felt nostalgic, came back to his senses and decided with great self confidence to return back to his father’s house, kneel on his feet and ask him for forgiveness.
On his return his loving and kind father received him with rejoice, open arms, accepted his repentance, and happily forgave him all his misdeeds. Because of his sincere repentance his Father gave him back all his privileges as a son.
This parable is a road map for repentance and forgiveness. It shows us how much Almighty God our Father loves us, we His children and how He is always ready with open arms and willing to forgive our sins and trespasses when we come back to our senses, recognize right from wrong, admit our weaknesses and wrongdoings, eagerly and freely return to Him and with faith and repentance ask for His forgiveness.
Asking Almighty God for what ever we need is exactly what the Holy Bible instructs us to do when encountering all kinds of doubt, weaknesses, stumbling, hard times, sickness, loneliness, persecution, injustice etc.
Matthew 07/07&08: “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”
All what we have to do is to pray and to ask Him with faith, self confidence and humility and He will respond.
Matthew 21/22: “All things, whatever you ask in prayer, believing, you will receive.”
We are not left alone at any time, especially when in trouble, no matter how far we distance ourselves from God and disobey His Holy bible. He is a Father, a loving, caring and forgiving Father.
What is definite is that in spite of our foolishness, stupidity, ignorance, defiance and ingratitude He never ever abandons us or gives up on our salvation. He loves us because we His are children.
He happily sent His only begotten son to be tortured, humiliated and crucified in a bid to absolve our original sin.'
God carries our burdens and helps us to fight all kinds of Evil temptations.
Matthew11/28-30: “Come to me, all you who labor and are heavily burdened, and I will give you rest. Take my yoke upon you, and learn from me, for I am gentle and lowly in heart; and you will find rest for your souls. For my yoke is easy, and my burden is light.”
God is waiting for our repentance, let us run to Him and ask for forgiveness before it is too late
The Parable Of The Lost son
Luke15/11-32: He (Jesus) said, “A certain man had two sons. The younger of them said to his father, ‘Father, give me my share of your property.’ He divided his livelihood between them. Not many days after, the younger son gathered all of this together and traveled into a far country. There he wasted his property with riotous living. When he had spent all of it, there arose a severe famine in that country, and he began to be in need. He went and joined himself to one of the citizens of that country, and he sent him into his fields to feed pigs. He wanted to fill his belly with the husks that the pigs ate, but no one gave him any. 15:17 But when he came to himself he said, ‘How many hired servants of my father’s have bread enough to spare, and I’m dying with hunger! I will get up and go to my father, and will tell him, “Father, I have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no more worthy to be called your son. Make me as one of your hired servants .”’ “He arose, and came to his father. But while he was still far off, his father saw him, and was moved with compassion, and ran, and fell on his neck, and kissed him. The son said to him, ‘Father, I have sinned against heaven, and in your sight. I am no longer worthy to be called your son.’ “But the father said to his servants, ‘Bring out the best robe, and put it on him. Put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet. Bring the fattened calf, kill it, and let us eat, and celebrate; for this, my son, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and is found.’ They began to celebrate. “Now his elder son was in the field. As he came near to the house, he heard music and dancing. He called one of the servants to him, and asked what was going on. He said to him, ‘Your brother has come, and your father has killed the fattened calf, because he has received him back safe and healthy.’ But he was angry, and would not go in. Therefore his father came out, and begged him. But he answered his father, ‘Behold, these many years I have served you, and I never disobeyed a commandment of yours, but you never gave me a goat, that I might celebrate with my friends. But when this, your son, came, who has devoured your living with prostitutes, you killed the fattened calf for him.’ “He said to him, ‘Son, you are always with me, and all that is mine is yours. But it was appropriate to celebrate and be glad, for this, your brother, was dead, and is alive again. He was lost, and is found.

Al-Rahi Discusses Lebanon, Hizbullah with al-Sisi
Naharnet/20 March 2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi on Sunday said he discussed the thorny issue of Hizbullah’s weapons in a meeting in Cairo with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. “We talked about the issue of Hizbullah’s arms, which is not in the hands of the Lebanese anymore, and had there been a defense strategy, a part of the problem would have been solved,” al-Rahi said in an interview with Lebanon’s MTV. “We tackled Lebanon’s domestic issues and al-Sisi expressed his regret over the state that Lebanon has reached,” the patriarch added. “I told him that Lebanon is ill and that we need to treat its illness, which is the failure to implement the Taef Accord,” al-Rahi went on to say. “The solution is to declare neutrality,” the patriarch noted. He added: “We regret that Lebanon has become isolated from the world and the Egyptian president is ready to support the Lebanese cause and he emphasized this to me.”“We told him that the solutions are not in the hands of the Lebanese alone to implement and that there is a role for Arabs and the international community,” al-Rahi said.

President Aoun from Rome: I bring to His Holiness a message of love on behalf of the Lebanese, and I renew my invitation to the...
President Aoun: “Christianity in Lebanon is not in danger”.
NNA/20 March 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, and the accompanying delegation arrived at Fiumicino Airport in Rome on an official visit to the Vatican to meet Pope Francis.
The President will also visit his Italian counterpart, Sergio Mattarella, at the Presidential Quirinale Palace.
President Aoun was received at the airport by Head of Ceremonies in the Holy See, Monsignor Joseph Murphy, Papal Ambassador, Francesco Canalini, representatives of the Supreme Pontiff, and Counselor, Carmelo Ficarra from the diplomatic ceremonies at the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as Lebanon's Ambassador to the Vatican, Dr. Farid Elias El-Khazen, and Lebanon's Ambassador in Italy, Mira Al-Daher, Maronite Patriarchal delegate to the Holy See, Bishop Youhanna Rafiq Al-Warsha, Vice-Dean of the Pontifical Institute in Rome, Father Joseph Sfeir, and Father Anthony Choueifati of the Rota Court in the Vatican.
President Aoun's Statement:
The President expressed his pleasure for being in Rome, and stressed the importance he attaches to his meeting, for the second time during his tenure, with the Supreme Pontiff, Pope Francis, in view of the depth of the relations that bind Lebanon and its sons of all denominations with the Church and the Supreme Pontiffs. President Aoun also asserted that “Lebanon has been going through a severe period of economic and social difficulties that erupted as a result of accumulations dating back to years of wrong management of public affairs, which exacerbated with the spread of the Corona pandemic and the great explosion that occurred in the port of Beirut causing a major humanitarian disaster and damage to lives and property”. “At the same time, the Holy See has a special place in the heart of every Lebanese, as its officials have always stood by Lebanon, in the various difficult circumstances it has gone through, throughout its history. The Lebanese of different sects have always been reassured that the eye of the Master of the Holy See surrounds them” President Aoun said. “Pope Francis has previously sent his Eminence Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin to Lebanon following the Beirut explosion, and nearly a year later, the Secretary of Relations with Countries, Monsignor Paul-Richard Gallagher. In addition to dedicating a day of prayer and meditation for Lebanon in the heart of the Holy See on the first of last July” the President continued.
Moreover, President Aoun affirmed that he is bringing to His Holiness Pope Francis a message of love on behalf of all the Lebanese, and renewing the official invitation that he had previously addressed to him, to visit Lebanon in order to restore hope for the launch of the recovery process, at a time when we need his prayers and words. The President also considered that Christianity in Lebanon is not in danger, as some insist on portraying. “I am looking forward to this visit as a glimmer of hope to confirm that Lebanon is not transient, and it will remain, despite all the difficulties. Lebanon is a model for living together, according to what all the Lebanese insist on. No one in Lebanon fought the other with the aim of changing his doctrine. From here we still consider Lebanon today as a center of convergence in the world between Christianity and Islam with all their sects, as well as a meeting place for various civilizations” President Aoun said. "My visit, in this particular circumstance, to the capital of Catholicism comes not only in the context of strengthening relations with the Vatican, as this is a foregone conclusion as it is one of the constants of Lebanon's relations with the outside. But we consider His Holiness the Pope, as the largest spiritual and moral force in the world, and the one who helps us the most, especially in difficult circumstances, with his influence. He never failed to consider Lebanon a priority, despite the multiplication of his frameworks of interests in a world suffering from many intertwined crises, the latest of which is the war in Europe between Russia and Ukraine which casts a shadow over international relations as a whole” President Aoun concluded.
Meeting:
After a short break in the Salon of Honor, the President moved to his residence at the Parco dei Principi Hotel in Rome, where he immediately held a meeting with Ambassador Al-Khazen and then with Ambassador Al-Daher to see the final arrangements for his meeting program. ---- Presidency Information Office

President Aoun congratulates Lebanese mothers on their day: No matter the difficulties, a Lebanon that is recovering in your...
NNA/20 March 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, congratulated the mothers in Lebanon on their day via his "Twitter" account, saying: “From the heart to the mothers of Lebanon, a sincerest greeting...You are the model of firmness in love, and steadfastness in giving without limits…Whatever the difficulties, a recovering Lebanon, in your image and likeness, will remain worthy of life!”

President Aoun on La Francophonie day: Lebanon is attached to its values, which are currently being subjected to the most severe blows in more than...
NNA/20 March 2022 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted “Lebanon's commitment and attachment to the French language and the values ​​embodied in la Francophonie: respect for human rights, cultural and linguistic pluralism, freedom of expression, and the consolidation of democracy”. The President also emphasized that these values ​​are being subjected to the most severe blows, in more than one region of the world, and that Lebanon retains the hope of returning to these values, because it remains the only way to dialogue that guarantees peace and directs humanity to a better world, and the unprecedented crises that are currently shaking it will not deter it from fulfilling its role in preserving the French language. President Aoun’s stances came in a word on the occasion of the International Day of the Francophonie, which is on March 20, when the organization celebrates its establishment on this date in 1970.
Text:
“On this day, which is the feast of Francophonie, I convey my best wishes to the French-speakers in Lebanon and the world. On this occasion, I would like to recall Lebanon’s attachment to the French language and the values ​​it bears: respect for human rights, cultural and linguistic pluralism, freedom of expression, and the consolidation of democracy. Currently, these values ​​are being subjected to the most severe blows, in more than one region of the world. As for Lebanon, it retains the hope of returning to these values, because it remains the only way to dialogue that guarantees peace and directs humanity to a better world. Lebanon renews its commitment to work within the Francophone institutions, and to continue to play its historical role in preserving the French language, which is an essential component of its cultural identity, and in developing it, at the national, regional and international levels. The unprecedented crises currently shaking Lebanon will not deter it from fulfilling this role. The imminent opening in Beirut of the representation of the International Francophone Organization for the Middle East in the offices placed by the Lebanese authorities at the disposal of the organization, is evidence of this continued commitment to the various projects that are implemented throughout the Francophone world”.

Corona - Health Ministry: 361 new Corona cases, 5 deaths
NNA/20 March 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced Sunday the registration of 361 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,088,196. It added that 5 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

"No gasoline crisis tomorrow, stations will be open," reassures Fayyad
NNA/20 March 2022
Minister of Energy and Water, Dr. Walid Fayyad, issued a statement this evening, in which he indicated that he continued to follow-up on the gasoline issue while participating in the Doha conference in Qatar on Sunday. In this context, Fayyad made a series of contacts with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the oil importing companies and the union of gas stations, whereby oil companies confirmed their commitment to continue supplying gas stations so they can be open to citizens tomorrow.

Lebanese Cabinet urges judiciary not to fall for populism as banks plan strike
Najia Houssari/Arab News/20 March 2022
BEIRUT: A Cabinet meeting was convened on Saturday to address judicial actions against seven banks in Lebanon. The meeting conducted a review of the conflict between banks and the judiciary. The extraordinary session was held under the title “The higher interest of the state.”The Cabinet concluded with Mikati affirming that the council of ministers had agreed that the law would take its course based on the principle of cooperation between the authorities without any discrimination or discretion. It also agreed that judicial matters would be resolved according to laws by the staff of the judicial authority.
A ministerial source who took part in the session told Arab News that the ministers saw that it was not allowed for judges to use depositors’ money to achieve a certain populism.The judge should not be a populist and tweet on Twitter, some ministers reportedly felt.
BACKGROUND
The banking association said the strike was a warning against what it called ‘the arbitrariness of some judicial decisions’ - a reference to orders that have frozen the assets of seven banks since March 14 and banned six of their executives from travel.“The banks are indeed mistaken and there is indeed a major crisis, but it should be addressed in a balanced and non-random manner,” they suggested. In response to what it described as a “judicial attack on banks,” the Association of Banks has called for the issuance of the capital control law as soon as possible. In addition to the strike, the association warned that it might “take other steps that may be necessary to preserve the national economy and the supreme Lebanese interest.”The decision on a set of lawsuits filed by activist groups against some major banks in Lebanon to recover depositors’ money coincided with investigations on charges against the central bank governor on suspicion of illegal enrichment and money laundering. The judicial procedures resulted in the execution of the seizure of Fransabank’s assets, shares, and real estate and of the Creditbank and the branches of Blom Bank in Tripoli. The Association of Depositors indicated its intention “to file more executive lawsuits against banks in the coming days.”In a related development, the brother of Central Bak Gov. Raja Salameh, was arrested by the appeal public prosecutor in Mount Lebanon, Ghada Aoun, after he appeared before her as a witness.
Salameh’s attorney, Marwan Issa El-Khoury, said the allegations of “illicit enrichment and money laundering” were unfounded and the case was “media speculation without any evidence.”
The governor of the central bank had refrained from coming to Judge Aoun’s office more than a week ago as a witness, as he had filed a lawsuit to respond to Judge Aoun about the case in which he was investigated.
Aoun has also issued a travel ban against Salameh. She said that the possibility of the political authority putting pressure on the judiciary was an “unacceptable attack on judges who perform their professional duty, if some people did not like this or that prosecution.”
Judge Aoun, who is affiliated with the president, in a tweet called on Lebanon’s judges to arm themselves with “the truth and the legal text. The hope is in you to save the country from injustice, bullying the weak and diverting influence.”One of the ways out of the current crisis is to refer the confrontation between depositors and banks to the Court of Appeal. The court may decide on Monday to implement the decision to break the seizure of safes and maintain the seizure of the value of the claimant’s deposit. Also on Saturday, the leader of the Lebanese Forces party, Samir Geagea, said that “some bank owners and their administrators bear part of the responsibility for what happened to depositors’ deposits, and therefore they should be prosecuted legally.” But he added: “What is happening now with regard to the issue of banks is a kind of farce and misleading public opinion.” Geagea expressed his fear that “these authoritarian measures that use part of the judiciary as a tool for them, and are covered by law, will destroy the banking sector instead of reforming it.”Geagea said that “the president, the current government, and the parliamentary majority are responsible for the harm that befalls Lebanese citizens as a result of all their personal maliciousness, continuous blackmail attempts or attempts to change some officials to appoint the most evil crooks in their place.”

Raad Says Electoral Battle against 'Hostile Project' Will be 'Very Difficult'
Naharnet/20 March 2022
The head of Hizbullah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, on Sunday admitted that the upcoming parliamentary elections will be a “very difficult” challenge to his party. “We’re not running in the elections to reserve parliamentary seats, but rather to confront a side that wants to impoverish and starve our people, to create chaos in our country and to threaten our security and sovereignty,” Raad noted. “Unfortunately, this international side is finding compliance from some regional and local parties,” Raad added. “Our battle is very difficult and it is necessary to win it in order to defeat this hostile project that is targeting our existence, dignity and our country’s sovereignty,” the lawmaker said. Raad, however, pointed out that the country “cannot be run by a single camp.”“We’re saying this and we’re confident that we will return to parliament with the same strength or maybe more. We cannot run the country on our own and we want cooperation with others, but with true patriotism and without being stabbed in the back,” the lawmaker added. “America and its cronies and tools want to take us to the wrong choice and the objective is to remove the weapons of the resistance, the weapons that protected Lebanon, regained the dignity of Lebanese and all Arabs in the region, safeguarded national sovereignty and terrorized the enemy,” Raad went on to say.

Geagea: May 15th elections a step to choose between hell, saving the country
NNA/20 March 2022 
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, stressed that "the 2022 elections are not just ordinary elections, but a decisive battle, and the goal is not just to win one or two representatives in parliament because our country is in its worst conditions and sinking more and more daily…while its officials have not taken any step for the past two years, since the start of the crisis, in the required direction even to mitigate its repercussions…Rather, all the steps taken came against the required rescue and drowned the country more and more and more….” Geagea’s words came during a dinner banquet he hosted with his spouse, MP Strida Geagea, in Maarab in honor of the Lebanese Forces branch in the area of Bkaa Kafra, attended by partisans, electoral candidates and prominent officials from the region. The LF Chief reiterated that “the entitlement of May 15th is not just an electoral process for the region’s representatives, but rather a step for us to vote for ourselves and to choose between staying in Hell, which has no end through voting for the ruling clique, or resorting to those who can save the country.”Geagea hoped for victory on May 15, so that serious work can begin with the appropriate constitutional tools to initiate the real rescue process, “which is not easy but truly possible with the combined efforts of everyone,” he said.

Energy Minister reviews with his Qatari counterpart Lebanon's needs, ways of receiving Qatari support in energy field
NNA/20 March 2022 
Minister of Energy and Water, Walid Fayyad, met Sunday with the Qatari Minister of Energy on the sidelines of the seventh general conference of the Arab Electricity Union held in Doha, during which discussions touched on energy affairs in general, and Lebanon's needs in particular and ways to help it in this field. Talks also tackled the significant changes that are taking place in the fuel market, in light of the recent emerging crisis and the increasing demand for Qatari gas.In view of these volatile circumstances, the Qatari side encouraged Lebanon to launch a new tender given its need for gas and in wake of the global changes taking place, particularly since its station located in Al-Zahrani requires gas as a first stage. Lebanon was also advised to launch its new gas tender with appealing terms for participants, given that the market is subject today to strong and wide competition, as the demand is huge and the supply is little, which confirms the need for having stimulating, appropriate and executable tender conditions.


The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 20-21/2022
Signs of an Imminent Iran Nuclear Deal
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 March, 2022
An agreement over Iran's nuclear program could be reached within 48 hours, said a senior participant in the Vienna talks. Irish foreign minister Simon Coveney, who acts as United Nations Security Council facilitator at the talks, stressed “the signals are good” for agreement over the weekend. There was “no question” that the agreement would lead to renewed oil exports from Iran, reducing upward pressure on energy prices in the West, he added. Coveney told BBC Radio 4’s Today: “We are getting much closer to signing a deal. “In fact, some would say that there’s prospects potentially for a deal this weekend. “Iran has a national holiday that starts on Monday that lasts nearly two weeks and so it may well be the case that the political leaders want to get this issue done in the next 48 hours or so, and that’s certainly our hope.”Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused “tension and delay” in the Vienna talks because of Moscow’s concern that international sanctions will prevent it from gaining any benefit from the opening up of Iran, said Coveney. But he added: “That seems to have been resolved in the last few days. We look as if we’re almost there. That’s a good news story when the world needs one and it’s also a reminder that multilateralism can work if there’s patience and determination to get a deal across the line.”Coveney cautioned that there was “no certainty” of the deal being revived this weekend. “There certainly is a possibility now. This deal really was almost done two or three weeks ago, and certainly on the EU side, we’ve been happy with the text of the deal for the last two to three weeks,” he said. “It’s really been about trying to get the remaining parties to the JCPOA across the line,” remarked Coveney.

Russia demands Ukrainian forces lay down arms in Mariupol
Reuters/Published: 21 March ,2022
Russia on Sunday called on Ukrainian forces to lay down their arms in the eastern port city of Mariupol where Moscow said a “terrible humanitarian catastrophe” was unfolding. “Lay down your arms,” Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, the director of the Russian National Center for Defense Management, said in a briefing distributed by the defence ministry. “A terrible humanitarian catastrophe has developed,” Mizintsev said. “All who lay down their arms are guaranteed safe passage out of Mariupol.” Mariupol has suffered some of the heaviest bombardment since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. Many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped in the city with little if any food, water and power.Mizintsev said humanitarian corridors for civilians would be opened eastwards and westwards out of Mariupol at 10 a.m. Moscow time (0700 GMT) on Monday. Ukraine has until 5 a.m. Moscow time to respond to the offer on humanitarian corridors and laying down arms, he said. Russia and Ukraine have traded blame for the failure to open such corridors in recent weeks. Mizintsev, without providing evidence, said that Ukrainian “bandits”, “neo-Nazis” and nationalists had engaged in “mass terror” and gone on a killing spree in the city. Ukraine says it is fighting for its existence and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday that the siege of Mariupol was “a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come”. The West has imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia that the Kremlin says amount to a declaration of economic war by the US and its allies.Mizintsev said Russia was not using heavy weapons in Mariupol. He said Russia had evacuated 59,304 people out of the city but that 130,000 civilians remained as effective hostages there. He said 330,686 people had been evacuated from Ukraine by Russia since the start of the “operation”.The Mariupol city council said on its Telegram channel late on Saturday that several thousand residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands of people, displaced more than 3 million and raised fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the US. Russian President Vladimir Putin says the “special military operation” in Ukraine was necessary to disarm and “denazify” its neighbour.

Ukraine’s Zelensky condemns ‘terror’ in besieged Mariupol as fighting rages
Reuters/Match 20/2022
Mariupol has suffered some of the heaviest bombardment since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, and many of its 400,000 residents remain trapped in the city with little if any food, water and power. The UN refugee agency said 10 million people had now been displaced across Ukraine, including some 3.4 million who have fled to neighbouring countries such as Poland. Officials in the region said they were reaching capacity to comfortably house refugees. Capturing Mariupol would help Russian forces secure a land corridor to the Crimea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Fighting continued inside the city on Sunday, regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said, without elaborating.The city council said on its Telegram channel late on Saturday that several thousand residents had been “deported” to Russia over the past week. Russian news agencies said buses had carried hundreds of people Moscow calls refugees from Mariupol to Russia in recent days. President Vladimir Putin says Russia's “special operation” is aimed at disarming Ukraine and rooting out people he terms dangerous nationalists. Western nations call it an aggressive war of choice and have imposed punishing sanctions aimed at crippling Russia's economy. Ukraine and its Western backers say Russian ground forces have made few advances in the last week, concentrating their efforts instead on artillery and missile strikes.Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said on Sunday there had been a relative lull over the past day, with “practically no rocket strikes on (Ukrainian) cities.” He said front lines were “practically frozen.” Mariupol's city council said Russian forces had bombed an art school on Saturday in which 400 residents were sheltering, but the number of casualties was not yet known. Reuters could not independently verify the claims. Russia denies targeting civilians.Zelensky said the siege of Mariupol was a war crime. “To do this to a peaceful city... is a terror that will be remembered for centuries to come,” he said in a broadcast late on Saturday. Still, he said, peace talks with Russia were needed although they were “not easy and pleasant.” The UN human rights office said at least 902 civilians had been killed in the war as of midnight Saturday, though it says the real toll is probably much higher. Ukrainian prosecutors said 112 children had been killed. “I want the war to be over, I want them (Russian forces) to leave Ukraine in peace,” said Margarita Morozova, 87, who survived Nazi Germany's siege of Leningrad in World War Two and has lived in Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine, for the past 60 years. “Ukraine is an independent country. What are they doing here?”

Zelenskyy says ‘time for Israel to make its choice’ and back Ukraine
AFP/20 March ,2022
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday urged Israel to abandon its effort to maintain neutrality following Russia's invasion, saying the time had come for Israel to firmly back his country. Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, made the appeal during an address to Israeli lawmakers, the latest in a series of speeches by videoconference to foreign legislatures. In remarks that at several points compared Russian aggression to the Holocaust, Zelenskyy said that “Ukraine made the choice to save Jews 80 years ago.”“Now it's time for Israel to make its choice.”Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has walked a careful diplomatic line since Russia launched its invasion on February 24. Stressing Israel's strong ties to Moscow and Kyiv, Bennett has sought to preserve delicate security cooperation with Russia, which has troops in Syria, across Israel's northern border. Bennett has held regular phone calls with Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, including a three-hour meeting with Putin at the Kremlin on March 5. While Ukrainian officials have voiced appreciation for Bennett's mediation efforts, Zelenskyy on Sunday implied that this too had proven to be a misstep. “We can mediate between states but not between good and evil,” the Ukrainian leader said.

Zelensky: 'I'm ready for negotiations' with Putin, but if they fail, it could mean 'a third World War'
CNN/March 20, 2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday that he's "ready for negotiations" with Russian President Vladimir Putin but warned that if they fail "that would mean that this is a third World War.""I'm ready for negotiations with him. I was ready for the last two years. And I think that without negotiations we cannot end this war," he told CNN's Fareed Zakaria. "I think that we have to use any format, any chance in order to have a possibility of negotiating, possibility of talking to Putin. But if these attempts fail, that would mean that this is a third World War," he added.


Trouble In Kremlin Gulag: Spy Boss Reportedly Arrested As Putin Fumes Over Ukraine Invasion
Mary Papenfuss/HuffPost/Sun, March 20, 2022
A top commander of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) intelligence agency has been placed under house arrest amid upheaval and infighting among officials as President Vladimir Putin fumes over the botched Ukraine invasion, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.
Russian commander Col. Gen. Sergei Beseda was in charge of the FSB’s Ukraine operation, according to the Journal, citing a U.S. official. The unidentified American official also told the newspaper that “bickering had broken out” between the FSB and the Russian Ministry of Defense, which were the key government agencies planning the invasion. Citing Russian news sources, The New York Times reported that a second FSB official was also under house arrest. Russia’s military operation has not gone nearly as well as planned. CIA Director William Burns told Congress earlier this month that Putin had planned to seize the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv within two days. Yet the city continues to fend off Russian forces nearly a month after the invasion began. As many as five Russian generals have been killed in the fighting, according to Ukraine. That’s bad news for officials surrounding Putin, observers warn. “When it comes to this guy, it’s clear that the culture of ‘someone is at fault and is going to pay’ is clearly still operative,” former CIA and National Security Council official Jeffrey Edmonds told the Journal. But the finger-pointing and rising fear and discontent in the Kremlin could also be bad news for Putin. Russian history scholar Stephen Kotkin said in a recent New Yorker interview that Putin is only getting the information that “he wants to hear. In any case, he believes that he’s superior and smarter. This is the problem of despotism,” he added. “It’s why despotism, or even just authoritarianism, is all-powerful and brittle at the same time.”

Russia fires hypersonic missiles in Ukraine again, destroys fuel storage site
AFP, Moscow/20 March ,2022
Russia said Sunday it has again fired its newest Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, destroying a fuel storage site in the country's south. The Russian defense ministry also said it killed more than 100 members of Ukrainian special forces and “foreign mercenaries” when it targeted a training center in the town of Ovruch in northern Ukraine with sea-based missiles. “Kinzhal aviation missile systems with hypersonic ballistic missiles destroyed a large storage site for fuels and lubricants of the Ukrainian armed forces near the settlement of Kostyantynivka in the Mykolaiv region,” the defense ministry said. The ministry said the base had been used for the main supplies of fuel for Ukrainian armored vehicles in the country's south. The Kinzhal (Dagger) hypersonic missiles were fired from airspace over Russian-controlled Crimea, the ministry said, adding that Kalibr cruise missiles launched from the Caspian Sea had also targeted the depot. On Saturday, Russia said it had used the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy an underground missile and ammunition storage site in western Ukraine close to the border with NATO member Romania. The Ukrainian armed forces confirmed to AFP on Saturday that the depot had been targeted but said they had “no information of the type of missile.”Russian analysts said the use Friday of the Kinzhal hypersonic missiles in Deliatyn, a village in the foothills of the Carpathian mountains, was the first combat use of such weapons in the world. The Russian defense ministry said that it also used long-range precision weapons against other facilities in Ukraine on Saturday evening and early Sunday. Russian forces fired the Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea to target a plant in the northern city of Nizhyn used to repair armored vehicles, the ministry said.

Iran, Israel missile strikes put American troops at risk, top US general for Middle East says
AP/March 20, 2022
‘… many times our forces are at risk, whether in Iraq or in Syria. So that, in fact, does concern me’
WASHINGTON: The exchange of missile strikes by Iran and Israel in Iraq and Syria puts US forces at risk, the top US commander for the Middle East said, just days after an Iranian missile barrage struck near the US Consulate complex in northern Iraq.
Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie told Pentagon reporters that over the past six months Iran has attacked US forces and facilities a number of times, but “very good action on the part of commanders on the ground” had thwarted any US casualties.
“Had US casualties occurred, I think we might be in a very different place right now,” said McKenzie. McKenzie and other US officials said this week the missile strikes on Sunday that hit close to the consulate were not aimed at the US And Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guard said on its website that it had attacked what it described as an Israeli spy center in Irbil. The attack came several days after Iran said it would retaliate for an Israeli strike near Damascus that killed two members of its Revolutionary Guard.
“I think it’s obvious that Israel is going to take steps to defend itself when it’s confronted with with Iranian actions. And of course, Iran is dedicated to the destruction of Israel,” McKenzie said.
I think it’s obvious that Israel is going to take steps to defend itself when it’s confronted with with Iranian actions. “I do worry about these exchanges between Iran and Israel, because many times our forces are at risk, whether in Iraq or in Syria. So that, in fact, does concern me.”
McKenzie, who is retiring after about three years as head of US Central Command, was speaking at what was expected to be his final press briefing. He said that as he prepares to turn over the job to incoming Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, his message to his successor is that Iran continues to be his biggest challenge.
“My central problem in my three years of command was Iran,” said McKenzie, who also oversaw the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and commando raids to kill Daesh leaders. “There were other problems, other huge problems, but the headquarters as a whole ... focused on the Iranian problem and everything attendant to that.”The US presence in Iraq has long been a flash point for Tehran, but tensions spiked after a January 2020 US drone strike near the Baghdad airport killed a top Iranian general. In retaliation, Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Al-Asad air base, where US troops were stationed. More than 100 service members suffered traumatic brain injuries in the blasts. More recently, Iranian proxies are believed responsible for an assassination attempt late last year on Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. And officials have said they believe Iran was behind the October drone attack at the military outpost in southern Syria where American troops are based. No US personnel were killed or injured in the attack. Last year, US forces in Iraq shifted to a non-combat role, but Iran and its proxies still want all American troops to leave the country.
McKenzie said the Iranian leaders believe that they can launch a certain level of attacks against the US without affecting the ongoing negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. Diplomats trying to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal appear to be near the cusp of an agreement that would bring the US back into the accord and bring Iran back into compliance with limits on its nuclear program. Congressional opponents of the deal peppered McKenzie with questions this week about the impact of an agreement on Iranian aggression and whether sanctions relief will only provide Iran funding for other malign behavior.
McKenzie said the US has gotten better at countering potential strikes by Iranian drones and other defensive measures, which contributed to the lack of American casualties. But he and others have noted that the Iranian ballistic missile strikes have gotten more precise. “We don’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and the best way to get to that is probably through a negotiated solution,” he said, adding that such a deal won’t likely solve other problems, such as Iranian conventional attacks in the region. “I don’t think anybody in the United States government is blind to that fact, but ... if you can take nuclear weapons off the table, that’s a powerful capability that you don’t have to worry about.” Once that is done, he said, then the US could move on and deal with other problems, including Iran’s increasing ballistic missile and drone threats. “What you’d like to do is negotiate that, but if you can negotiate that, that’s where US Central Command comes in. It’s our job to demonstrate to Iran the concept of deterrence — that the things they want to pursue are too painful for them to achieve. We work at that every day.”

Gargash: Assad Visit Stems from UAE Position to Perpetuate Arab Role in Syria
Washington, Ankara, London - Elie Youssef and Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 March, 2022
Anwar Gargash, the diplomatic advisor to the President of the UAE, said on Saturday that the visit of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to the country “reflects the UAE’s realistic policy towards reducing tensions and enhancing the Arab role in a practical approach to finding solutions to the region’s crises.” “The complex regional situations require the adoption of a practical and logical approach that does not accept the marginalization of Arab efforts seeking to confront challenges and avoid the evils of crises and strife,” tweeted the adviser. “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s visit stems from the UAE’s tendency to perpetuate the Arab role in the Syrian file, and it also comes from an Emirati conviction of the need for political communication, openness and dialogue at the regional level,” he explained. “This stage requires courageous steps to consolidate stability and prosperity and ensure the future of the region and the well-being of its people,” added Gargash. On Friday, Assad paid his first visit to an Arab country, the UAE, after 11 years of estrangement, the suspension of Syria's membership in the Arab League, and most Arab countries severing diplomatic relations with Damascus. The UAE had restored diplomatic relations with Damascus in 2018 and reopened its embassy there. Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed visited Damascus last November. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister, and Ruler of Dubai, received Assad, at Al Marmoom Rest House, Dubai. During the meeting, Sheikh Mohammed welcomed Assad and his accompanying delegation, saying their visit is part of the framework of the brotherly relations between the two countries. Sheikh Mohammed expressed his sincere wishes for peace, security, stability, and prosperity to prevail in Syria and the entire region. The meeting focused with the overall relations between the two countries and the prospects of expanding cooperation to fulfil the aspirations of the two brotherly peoples, achieve their comprehensive development goals, and enhance the chances of peace and stability in Syria and the region in general.

How to Use Syrian Oil as an 'Entry Point' to Breaking the Deadlock
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 20 March, 2022
In the face of the stability of the “borderlines” between the three Syrian zones of influence for two years, the continuation of the political stalemate and the emergence of a global energy crisis, a set of ideas is being circulated aimed at turning Syrian oil into a point of consensus between the players and an “entry point to break the deadlock”. This can be achieved through understandings that lead to an increase in oil production to about 500,000 barrels per day within three years to provide about 20 billion US dollars annually, distribute the revenues for the benefit of all Syrians, and support “early recovery” projects in accordance with the international resolution on humanitarian aid.
'War lords'
After the eruption of the conflict in 2011, Western countries imposed sanctions on the Syrian oil sector, and foreign companies, which were producing about 400,000 barrels per day, left the country.
Currently, the Syrian Democratic Forces, with the support of the US-led coalition, control a quarter of Syria's area, but significantly 90 percent of the oil and more than half of the gas. Syrian Oil Minister Bassam Tohme said a few days ago that the oil sector's losses since the beginning of the crisis amounted to $91.5 billion. He revealed that the direct losses to equipment in the oil sector amounted to 19.3 billion dollars, "of which 3 billion are the value of damages inflicted by the international coalition's strikes." The indirect losses amounted to 72 billion dollars. The minister said the daily production of oil last year amounted to 89,000 barrels, the majority of which took place in Kurdish-controlled areas and is described by Tohme as “stolen”. Since early 2017, the SDF has taken over oil fields east of the Euphrates River and their infrastructure owned by contracts with the government by foreign companies, including Gulfsands, Total, and Shell. Oil wells and facilities were also cordoned off. The Autonomous Administration of the SDF uses some of the production locally. Mediators and parties that have profited from and enriched themselves during the war transfer some of the oil to government areas to refine an amount and keep the other. Oil is also smuggled into Iraqi Kurdistan, for local consumption or for smuggling to Turkey. Oil is sold at very low prices, and wells are damaged
'Oil Protection'
On October 6, 2019, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham played a role in persuading President Donald Trump to keep 900 members of the US military in eastern Syria, after his decision to withdraw from the border with Turkey. Trump later said that "a small number of soldiers will remain in the areas that contain oil," stressing that "we have ensured the security and protection of oil." In July 2020, Graham, who is close to Trump, announced before Congress that SDF commander Mazloum Abdi informed him of the signing of an agreement with the American company Delta Crescent Energy to invest in oil after obtaining an exception from the Treasury Department (which was not extended by the administration of Joe Biden). He added: "The American company will work to improve the feasibility of the oil fields to make them more productive. It makes sense that, rather than just writing checks, we should help people help themselves." Meanwhile, then Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that "the agreement took more time than ex ected" and aims to "modernize oil." The situation embarrassed the Syrian Ministry of Defense, which said that "Syrian oil belongs to the Syrian people, and we remain committed to the unity and territorial integrity of Syria." It added that "the United States government does not own, control, or manage the oil resources in Syria, and the population in areas liberated from ISIS make their own decisions regarding local governance."
After that, US Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced: "We are taking measures to strengthen our position in Deir Ezzor to prevent ISIS access to the oil fields." The Pentagon confirmed sending reinforcements and mechanisms to protect the oil fields, so that about 500 soldiers remained east of the Euphrates, with an increase in the number and quality of military equipment to provide protection for the oil wells.
'Quadruple Rage'
The oil agreement, brokered by the US, was widely criticized by Damascus, Moscow, Tehran and Ankara as "political recognition of the Kurdish administration". They said it "contradicts the understanding of the guarantors of Astana, Russia, Iran and Turkey, to oppose any separatist agenda in Syria." Moscow considered it "a theft of Syrian wealth." It also angered foreign companies that hold sovereign rights in the oil fields. Among those companies is Gulfsands, which had signed a contract with the Syrian government in 2003 to invest and develop Block 26 east of the Euphrates. According to its 2019 Annual Report, unauthorized production since early 2017 has been around 20,000 barrels a day, meaning that around 35 million barrels have been produced since then. Gulfsands expressed "concern" about this unlawful activity, and particularly the involvement of Delta Crescent Energy.
Profits...and ideas
According to experts' estimates, the Autonomous Administration receives 16 dollars per barrel, and 15 dollars goes to the Syrian government. The rest, which could amount to up to 50 dollars per barrel, is "lost" and ends up in the hands of war profiteers. It is again reported in the Gulfsands Annual Report that Block 26 could, with appropriate investment, be increased in production from 20,000 to 100,000 barrels per day. If this could be replicated across the region, it could mean an industry that produces 500,000 barrels per day which at todays' high oil prices could raise round 18 billion dollars of gross revenue per year.
Challenges
Rebuilding the Syrian oil industry this way faces many obstacles. It would need agreement between the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria and Damascus and also require international support. In particular, this project requires political understandings between the US, which imposes sanctions on the oil sector, and Russia, which accuses Washington of "stealing oil." Some experts suggest the establishment of a structure that falls within the context of UN envoy Geir Pedersen's proposal for "step-for-step" measures, to include aspects of financing "early recovery" projects under the new Security Council resolution for humanitarian aid drafted by Washington and Moscow, and providing new sources of relief funding from Syria. Significantly, the European Union had in the past 11 years allocated 25 billion euros to Syrians, 14 billion dollars from America, and 3.7 billion pounds from Britain. A fully functioning and revitalized oil industry could exceed these contributions. The proposal suggests a formal structure of specially selected and audited service providers, such as. returning foreign oil companies, preferred oil traders, and financiers who, in exchange for sanctions exemptions and approvals, would ensure full transparency and accountability for the exploration, development, production, marketing and sale of oil and gas through established international channels. There is no doubt that such an initiative is ambitious and would need to navigate international sanctions, as well as provide transparency and benefits for all participants to them to have confidence in its implementation and provide their support. However, the prize is huge, particularly for the Syrian people, and surely is worth attention and consideration from all sides.

6 Dead in Belgium as Car Hits Early Morning Carnival Crowd
Agence France Presse/March 20, 2022
A car ploughed into a crowd of early morning carnival-goers in Belgium on Sunday, killing six people and injuring dozens of others, authorities said. The tragedy took place just after 5:00 am (0400 GMT) at the carnival of Strepy-Bracquegnies, a district of the former industrial town of La Louviere. "At this stage of the investigation, we know that a vehicle slammed into a group (of carnival goers) and that there are six dead and 26 injured, including 10 people whose life is in danger," prosecutor Damien Verheyen told reporters in La Louviere The main suspects, who were arrested, were born in 1988 and 1990, he said, adding that terrorism was not at this stage considered a motive. The suspects came from La Louviere and are not known to authorities for similar acts, Verheyen said. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo deplored the "horrible news" on Twitter, saying "a community gathering to celebrate has been hit in the heart." De Croo was expected to visit the scene later on Sunday accompanied by Belgium's King Philippe, the prime minister's office said. Belgian towns and villages host many street carnivals around the season of Lent, with the parades in Binche and Alost the most known internationally.
'High speed'
Like Binche, the carnival of Strepy-Bracquegnies involves participants dressed up as "Gilles", comical figures who are "called out" to the parade in the early hours. "I was walking by," one witness, Theo, told RTBF news. "I turned around and saw a car running into the troop. It came very fast and didn't brake. It continued and it took a girl 100 meters further," he said. La Louviere mayor Jacques Gobert said there were 150 to 200 people participating in the pre-dawn prologue to two days of festivities. The car came "at high speed" and the driver of the vehicle ploughed into the group and "pulverized a significant number of people," he said. Gobert said he asked organizers that the remainder of the carnival events -- the first to take place after two years of coronavirus-related cancellations -- should not take place. Recently, a similar tragedy took place in neighboring Germany, when a man in February 2020 rammed his car through a carnival procession, injuring dozens of bystanders including children. Germany and other countries at the time had been on high alert for car ramming attacks since December 2016, when an Islamic State group sympathizer plowed a truck through a Christmas market leaving 12 dead. German towns had seen several such attacks since, with most carried out by people who were found to have psychological issues.

Canada/Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on the International Day of La Francophonie

March 20, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement to mark the International Day of La Francophonie:
“Today, Canada joins Francophones in Canada and around the world to celebrate the French language as well as the richness and diversity of francophone cultures. Throughout our history, Francophones and Francophiles have helped shape our country and make it dynamic, inclusive, united and open to the world. “The French language is not only a central element of our national identity, but it also plays a leading role in international relations. Its influence has made it possible to create diplomatic, interpersonal and cultural ties and to promote the values ​​of peace and solidarity, which are the foundation of La Francophonie.“As the world is experiencing a period marked by profound upheaval, it is essential that we unite through our common values ​​. We pay tribute to the courage of the people of Ukraine, an observer member of the International Organization of La Francophonie [OIF], who are showing extraordinary resilience and determination in the face of the unjustified and unprovoked invasion of their territory by Russian President Vladimir Putin. “This day gives us the opportunity to reiterate our deep attachment to the international Francophonie and to the OIF, as an important multilateral institution that that must play its role in finding solutions to today's global challenges. Together with all state and government members of La Francophonie, we can work to build a better world, guided by the values ​​of peaceful pluralism, respect for democracy and human rights, diversity, inclusion and solidarity.”

Yemen Rebels Launch Wide Strikes on Saudi Sites; No One Hurt
Associated Press/March 20, 2022
Yemen's Houthi rebels unleashed a barrage of drone and missile strikes on Saudi Arabia that targeted key facilities including natural gas and desalination plants early Sunday, Saudi state-run media reported, temporarily reducing oil production at one site in the latest escalation as peace talks stall and the war in Yemen rages into its eighth year. The attacks did not cause casualties, the Saudi-led military coalition fighting in Yemen said, but damaged civilian vehicles and homes in the area. A Saudi energy official later acknowledged that a drone strike targeting the Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Company on the Red Sea coast caused "a temporary reduction in the refinery's production."The disruption, coming as oil prices spike in an already-tight energy market, "will be compensated for," the ministry said in a statement.
The salvo also came as Saudi Arabia's state-backed oil giant Aramco announced that its profits surged 124% in 2021 to $110 billion, a jump fueled by renewed anxieties about global supply shortages and soaring oil prices.
Aramco, also known as the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., released its earnings report after weeks of intense volatility in energy markets triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Punitive sanctions on Russia, among the world's largest exporters of crude and petroleum products, have added turmoil to the market.
The international oil benchmark Brent crude hovered over $107 on Sunday after nearly touching a peak of $140 earlier this month. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have so far resisted Western appeals to increase oil production to offset the loss of Russian oil as gasoline prices skyrocket.
Brig. Yehia Sarie, a spokesman for Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, said the rebels had launched "a wide and large military operation into the depth of Saudi Arabia" on Sunday, firing ballistic missiles and bomb-laden drones toward Saudi Aramco facilities and other "sensitive targets" in the country.
He described the assault as retaliation for the Saudi-led "aggression and blockade" that has turned much of Yemen into a wasteland.
The Saudi-led military coalition said Houthi aerial strikes targeted a range of facilities: an Aramco liquified gas plant in the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a power station in the country's southwest, a desalination facility in Al-Shaqeeq on the Red Sea coast, an Aramco oil facility in the southern border town of Jizan and a gas station in the southern city of Khamis Mushait. The extent of damage on Saudi infrastructure and energy facilities remained unclear. The official Saudi Press Agency posted photos of firetrucks dousing leaping flames with water and a trail of rubble wrought by shrapnel that crashed through ceilings and pocked apartment walls. Other images showed wrecked cars and giant craters in the ground. "There were no injuries or fatalities and there was no impact on the company's supplies to customers," Aramco President and CEO Amin H. Nasser told reporters in remarks carried by Saudi state media.
The barrage comes days after the Saudi-based Gulf Cooperation Council said it invited Yemen's warring sides for talks in Riyadh aimed at ending the war — an offer dismissed out of hand by the Houthis, who demanded that negotiations take place in a "neutral" country.
Peace talks have floundered since the Houthis have tried to capture oil-rich Marib, one of the last remaining strongholds of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government in the country's north. Yemen's brutal war erupted in 2015, after the Iran-backed Houthis seized the country's capital, Sanaa, and swept across much of the north. Saudi Arabia and other Arab states launched a devastating air campaign to dislodge the Houthis and restore the internationally recognized government. But years later, the war has settled into a bloody stalemate, with Saudi Arabia and its allies struggling to turn the tide. It has created one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, with a recent U.N. report estimating that hundreds of thousands of people have died as a result of the war. Coalition airstrikes have decimated infrastructure and struck civilian targets in Yemen like hospitals, telecommunications centers and wedding parties, drawing widespread international criticism. Repeated cross-border Houthi attacks meanwhile have targeted the kingdom's key oil refineries and export terminals. Although rarely causing substantial damage, the strikes on Aramco sites have rattled world energy markets and raised the risk of disruptions to Saudi output.
As part of its 2021 report, Aramco said it stuck to its promise of paying quarterly dividends of $18.75 billion — $75 billion last year — due to commitments the company made to shareholders in the run-up to its initial public offering. Nearly all of the dividend money goes to the Saudi government, which owns more than 98% of the company. Despite Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's increasing efforts to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, the kingdom remains heavily dependent on oil exports to fuel government spending. The low oil prices of recent years have stung Aramco, forcing the kingdom to scale back its spending on projects and subsidies. But riding on its 2021 income surge, Aramco said on Sunday it expects to raise its capital expenditure to between $40 and $50 billion this year, a sizable increase from last year's spending of $31.9 billion. "Although economic conditions have improved considerably, the outlook remains uncertain due to various macro-economic and geopolitical factors," said Nasser, Aramco's CEO.Aramco shares were up over 3% on Sunday to trade around 43.20 riyals ($11.50) a share on Riyadh's Tadawul stock exchange.

Houthis under fire for ruining peace efforts to end war
SAEED AL-BATATI/Arab News/March 20, 2022
AL-MUKALLA: The Iran-backed Houthis have been strongly criticized for striking civilian facilities in Saudi Arabia and intensifying military operations in Yemen as the UN special envoy for Yemen proposed a humanitarian truce during the holy month of Ramadan.Yemen’s government officials, human rights activists, journalists and the public have slammed the Houthis for torpedoing the current peace efforts by the UN and Gulf Cooperation Council to reach a peaceful settlement to end the war. Last week, the Gulf bloc invited warring factions in Yemen, including the Houthis, for peace talks under its aegis in Riyadh, a step that revived hopes of finding an end to the country’s aggravating humanitarian crisis. The Houthis quickly turned down the offer, launching deadly cross-border strikes on Saudi Arabia and escalating attacks on government-controlled areas in Yemen.
Yemen’s Foreign Ministry criticized the Houthis’ “aggressive and terrorist behavior” and their continuing resistance to all efforts to stop hostilities in Yemen, calling the latest attacks as the militia’s “response” to the GCC offer. “[The ministry] renews the firm and supportive position of the Republic of Yemen for the sisterly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its solidarity in all measures it takes to confront these cowardly terrorist acts, preserve the safety of its citizens and residents and protect its vital facilities,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by the official news agency SABA.
Other Yemenis argued that the escalating military operations and the cross-border attacks show that the militia is not serious about peace and is determined to thwart initiatives to end the war. Hamdan Al-Alaly said that the Houthis refused to take part in the coming conference since they would have to face the Yemeni forces that opposed their project. “They will find themselves small and despicable in front of all the Yemeni components that reject them,” Al-Alaly said, adding that the Houthis demanded direct talks with Saudi Arabia so as to legitimize their military takeover of power. “They are looking for regional countries’ recognition of their rule by asking for talks with the coalition, not with the Yemenis.”Yemen’s Minister of State Gen. Abdul Ghani Jamil said that the Houthis would do everything at their disposal to foil the peace talks in Riyadh since those talks would bring together Yemenis against their oppressive rule. “I think the message of the Houthis tonight is crystal clear. They do not want an invitation that seeks to unify the ranks [of their opponents] under the umbrella of the older sister, Saudi Arabia,” Jamil said. Meanwhile, on the ground, fighting between the Houthis and the government flared in flashpoint sites outside the central city of Marib as the Houthis push to break months of military stalemate. A local military official told Arab News on Sunday that the Houthis amassed huge military forces and intensified their drone and missile strikes on government-controlled areas outside the city.
“We shot down two explosives-rigged drones. They also fired a ballistic missile at a camp for displaced people in Marib city. The Houthis are preparing for a major assault,” said the official, who requested anonymity, adding that army troops and allied tribal fighters pushed back the latest Houthi attacks as the coalition’s warplanes hit the militia’s locations and military equipment. Fighting outside Marib and in the city of Taiz has escalated since the beginning of the year as the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg engaged in extensive direct talks with Yemeni parties aimed at finding a breakthrough that could end the war.  On Sunday, Grundberg said that he discussed with the Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam and Omani officials in Muscat arranging for a humanitarian truce during the holy month of Ramadan, which begins early next month.

Deadly attacks on women rise sharply in Iraqi Kurdistan
AFP/March 20, 2022
SULAIMANIYAH: A woman burned alive by her husband, others shot dead by a father or a teenage brother — bloody violence against women has spiked in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region. The autonomous area, keen on projecting an image of a relative haven of stability and tolerance in war-battered Iraq, has seen a sharp rise in femicide, killings motivated by gender. “In the past two months, there has been an increase in femicide compared to the previous year,” said Hiwa Karim Jwamir of the Kurdish General Directorate for Combating Violence Against Women. In the first two months of 2022, 11 women were killed in autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, most of them shot, said the official based in Sulaimaniyah. Forty-five women were killed in 2021, up from 25 the previous year, said Jwamir. On a Friday before dawn, a 15-year-old teenager was fatally wounded by six bullets fired by her father in the village of Soran. The man told police his daughter “went out with two boys late at night,” according to a domestic violence unit which also records so-called “honor killings.” Across Iraq, gender-based violence rose 125 percent to over 22,000 cases between 2020 and 2021, says the UN children’s agency UNICEF, which has also pointed to “a worrisome increase in depression and suicide among women and girls.”Last December, a 16-year-old girl was disfigured with acid in Baghdad by an adult who wanted to marry her but had been rejected. For years, activists have denounced violence against women and forced marriages in Iraq, which remains a conservative and patriarchal society. “Cases of violence against women are on the rise,” said long-time Kurdistan activist Bahar Munzir, director of local group the People’s Development Organization. “Most of the women who are killed are victims of a family member.”
A few days before International Women’s Day on March 8, the body of a 20-year-old woman was found on the side of the road in Irbil, the capital of Kurdistan. Maria Sami, the victim, was known on social networks for her feminist speeches. The following day, on March 9, Kirkuk police announced the arrest of the killer, her 18-year-old brother. While he was still on the run, he spoke by phone to a Kurdish television channel and tried to justify the killing by charging his sister had failed to obey the family. In February, mother-of-two Shinyar Huner Rafiq died in hospital, five days after being admitted with serious burns. “Her husband had come home one evening in a state of intoxication,” Shinyar’s father, Huner Rafiq, told AFP. “He doused her body in gasoline and set it on fire.”After the father reported the killing, police arrested the husband. “Before dying, Shinyar told us the facts,” said the bereaved father. “We recorded it, and we submitted the video to the investigators.” Kurdistan’s prime minister Masrour Barzani denounced the “horrific case,” saying he was “deeply troubled” by the spate of violent attacks against women. The government must impose “the heaviest possible penalty on perpetrators,” he said in a statement. “There is no honor in honor killings. “I’m determined to protect every woman, girl and child from abuse ... This scourge must end.” In early February, Dohuk police said they had found the corpse of Doski Azad, a 23-year-old transgender woman who had been ostracized by family members. An arrest warrant was issued to find the suspected murderer: the victim’s brother, who had in recent years been living in Europe. He had called his family to inform them of his crime and of where the body was, according to police. The murder was condemned by the UN mission in Iraq, and the consulates of Western countries in Irbil. The news provoked a torrent of hatred online — against the victim, even though some voices defended minorities’ rights. In June 2011, Kurdistan passed a law criminalizing domestic violence and female genital mutilation. The law, which threatens life in prison for “honor” crimes, was hailed by non-governmental groups as a major step forward. But the law’s enforcement is hampered by a climate of impunity and a common fear of speaking out. “When a woman is killed, the procedures of the security services are not the same as when it’s a man, the trial is not the same,” said Munzir, the activist. “Some cases don’t even make it to court. They are subject to tribal resolution between the man’s family and that of his wife, the victim.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 20-21/2022
The shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/March 20, 2022
While the Russia-Ukraine war has attracted the attention of the international community, the shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel is escalating and increasing tensions in the region. The danger of the expanding shadow war between Iran and Israel is that it can spiral out of control, leading to a full-fledged war between the two countries.
In an unprecedented move, Israel reportedly destroyed hundreds of Iranian drones with an attack on an airbase near Kermanshah, in western Iran. The Iranian regime did not disclose the attack, most likely not to lose face or show weakness. The Nour news agency reported: “On Monday morning, a fire broke out in a stockroom where motor oil and other flammable materials were stored in one of the support bases of the Revolutionary Guards in the Mahidasht region of Kermanshah province, causing damage to an industrial shed.”
To project power and appease its hardline base, the regime always attempts to take immediate revenge; Tehran responded by launching a dozen missiles into Iraq’s Kurdish region, arguing that it was aimed at Israeli centers. A “strategic center for conspiracy and mischief of the Zionists was targeted by powerful precision missiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps,” the IRGC said in a statement.
Irbil Gov. Omed Khoshnaw stated that there are no Israeli sites in the area. Instead, a new building housing the US Consulate was targeted. “We’ve been hearing for some time that Israeli sites are present. These are baseless allegations. There are no Israeli sites in the region,” Khoshnaw said.
To retaliate against Israel, the Iranian regime does not have to directly attack Israeli sites. Instead, Tehran can aim at the US, a robust ally of Israel, to force Washington to pressure Israel and to send a strong message to the US and Israel that both can be targets of Iran’s retaliation.
The Iranian regime possesses thousands of missiles that can strike Israeli or American sites. The commander of the US Central Command Gen. Kenneth McKenzie told the Senate Armed Services Committee: “At a military level, my concern is — first of all — that they do not have a nuclear weapon, but I am also very concerned about the remarkable growth and efficiency of their ballistic missile program. They have over 3,000 missiles of various types, some of which can reach Tel Aviv.”
The Iran-Israel shadow war has also been escalating in another country: Syria. Recently, Israel carried out an airstrike in Syria that killed four people, including two IRGC officers. Iran’s state-controlled Sepah News, which is connected to the IRGC, warned that Israel would “pay for this crime” and identified the two Iranians killed as Gen. Ehsan Karbalaipour and Gen. Morteza Saeidnejad.
There exist several underlying issues behind the expanding shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel. The most important issue is related to Iran’s nuclear program and the revival of the nuclear deal. Despite the Iranian leaders’ claim that their nuclear program is designed for peaceful purposes, from the Israeli government’s perspective, the Iranian regime is pursuing a covert agenda to obtain nuclear weapons.
The Israeli leaders’ concern is warranted due to the Iranian government’s history of clandestine nuclear activities. Tehran, from the beginning, decided to conceal its nuclear activities. For instance, its clandestine nuclear activities at two major sites, Natanz and Arak, were first revealed in 2000 by an Iranian opposition group, the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
Israel is concerned about the severe consequences of the Iranian nuclear deal and Tehran’s increasing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq.
In 2017, the council also released critical information showing that Iran’s nuclear activities had continued at the highly protected Parchin military base. The group stated that a location at Parchin was being secretly used to continue the country’s nuclear weapons project. It said: “The unit responsible for conducting research and building a trigger for a nuclear weapon is called the Center for Research and Expansion of Technologies for Explosion and Impact, known by its Farsi acronym as METFAZ.”
In addition, Israel’s seizure of documents from a nuclear archive in Tehran in 2018 directly pointed to the military dimension of Iran’s nuclear program. The Institute for Science and International Security subsequently warned: “Iran intended to build five nuclear warheads, each with an explosive yield of 10 kilotons and able to be delivered by ballistic missile.”Israel is also concerned that the nuclear deal will not only relieve the Iranian regime financially but will fail to prevent the regime from advancing its nuclear program. Secondly, the nuclear deal will provide Tehran with the money it desperately needs to empower and embolden its proxy group in Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. In a nutshell, Israel is concerned about the severe consequences of the Iranian nuclear deal and Tehran’s increasing influence in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. This has led to the expanding shadow war between the Iranian regime and Israel, which risks spiraling out of control and leading to full-fledged war.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh

Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns

Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/March 20, 2022
Wars are among the most heinous and cruel events that we follow on a daily basis, affected by and then forming our opinion of the parties involved. Here emerges the important role of war correspondents who convey to the world the details of what is happening on the battlefield. These brave professionals tell us the brutal stories they have witnessed and paint a clear picture of the destruction and bloodshed on the ground. Indeed, journalism is one of the most dangerous professions to practice, especially during coverage of armed conflicts. War reporters have become unarmed soldiers who participate in fights with their pens and cameras, risking their lives to obtain information to convey the facts from the heart of the battle through various global media outlets, including social media platforms.
During the Second World War and Vietnam, American reporters were embedded with US troops, wearing military uniforms and enjoying instant access to medical care if needed. This process carried over into the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and will continue in future conflicts in well-defined battle zones.
It is noteworthy that the Geneva Conventions of 1949 state that journalists captured while accompanying an army were entitled to the same protections as soldiers and were effectively prisoners of war.
However, this practice is much safer than covering unconventional conflicts and urban warfare, where reporters usually do their work independently or with small teams led by local producers or fixers.
Today with the development of technology and the possibility of using smartphones for direct communication, and the significant reduction in the size of cameras and photographic equipment, curious journalists can reach the closest possible point to the location of an important event and sometimes be part of it. I still remember small details of several warzone incidents I have witnessed in the past 32 years.
I have learned from my experience covering the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and going to several cities attacked by radical Islamist groups that war correspondents get attached to the victims of the enemy’s atrocities, regardless of who the enemy was. The more reporters stay in conflict zones, the more humanitarian events become very personal. It has not been a month yet since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and we have lost several journalists who were trying to communicate the facts and shed light on the humanitarian situation of millions of Ukrainians. Families fled the brutal Russian offensive to protect their children and loved ones and took refuge in neighboring countries or in somewhat safer Ukrainian regions. On March 13, Brent Renaud, an award-winning American filmmaker and journalist was killed in a suburb of the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, while his colleague Juan Arredondo was shot and rushed to the hospital. Arredondo said that he and Renaud were shot in a car after leaving a checkpoint on their way to film civilians fleeing the targeted neighborhoods and cities.
Days later, Ukrainian producer and fixer Oleksandra “Sasha” Kuvshynova, 24, and Fox News cameraman Pierre Zakrzewski, 55, were killed in the village of Gorenka, outside Kyiv. They were working alongside US Fox News State Department correspondent Benjamin Hall, who was rushed to the nearest hospital to treat his wounds. According to a statement issued by the network, the three-person team was hit by artillery shelling fired by Russian troops in the village.
The French anti-terrorism court, specializing in crimes against humanity cases, stated that an investigation had been opened in France into a possible war crime after the death of Zakrzewski, a French-Irish journalist. The investigation could be carried out given the journalist’s French citizenship, into a “deliberate attack on the life of a person protected under international law,” and a “deliberate attack on a civilian who was not taking a direct part in hostilities,” according to a statement issued by the court.
Last week, UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay highlighted the vital role of the war correspondent in reflecting the reality. “Journalists have a critical role in providing information during a conflict and should never be targeted,” she said, calling for the respect of international humanitarian standards to ensure that journalists and media workers are protected.
Sometimes a camera accompanied by bravery, determination and passion is more powerful. One might ask, why do these reporters expose themselves to unsafe and sometimes deadly circumstances? Well, here is the deal: The majority of war correspondents feel responsible for witnessing human suffering and giving civilians a voice by reporting what is happening in real-time, hoping to make a difference. The world is not getting safer for journalists trying to report on these dangerous conflicts. The ultimate sacrifices to reveal the truth remind us of the risks that war journalists are never afraid to take.
Not all heroes wear capes or carry big guns; sometimes a camera accompanied by bravery, determination and passion is more powerful. To all journalists out there, chapeau bas (hats off).
*Dalia Al-Aqidi is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter: @DaliaAlAqidi

The changing security scenario in Europe
Yasar Yakis/Arab News/March 20, 2022
The war between Russia and Ukraine has changed several paradigms in Europe, with the most important being the security architecture of the continent, with a possible return to the Cold War era. After the terrible experience that we are going through at present in Ukraine, a new balance will probably emerge in Eastern Europe.
The British theorist of geopolitics, Harold Mackinder, used to say that whoever rules East Europe commands the heartland — meaning the present Russian Federation. His theory is still being tested. Many parameters of geopolitics may have changed since 1904, when he published his article “The Geographical Pivot of History,” but geography continues to be regarded as destiny in international relations. The dominance of Eastern Europe is still a bone of contention between Russia on the one hand and US, NATO and the EU on the other.
The atmosphere of moderation that prevailed after the dismemberment of the Soviet Union has been short-lived and has been transformed into growing mutual mistrust.
The most likely scenario for the security architecture of Europe in the foreseeable future is that Russia will insist on preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. There may be tough bargaining for keeping Ukraine out of the EU as well. To what extent a sovereign country can be banned from becoming a member of an international organization — or a political gathering — is a valid question, but there is no easy answer to it. Ukraine would thus become a state with restricted sovereignty. In the longer term, Ukraine’s status would depend on the outcome of Russia-EU bargaining.
The US, on behalf of NATO, has refrained from all sorts of direct military confrontation with Russia. It also refrained from declaring a no-fly zone over Ukrainian airspace, while it did so easily in Iraq to protect the Kurds from Saddam Hussein’s attacks. Washington may have feared that such an attempt could lead to a nuclear confrontation. The US may be using this crisis to weaken Russia in a protracted war at the expense of Ukraine’s security. It approved sending Polish fighter jets to Ukraine, without considering the risks that it involves.
The new security structure of Europe is likely to be debated in NATO forums. Germany has already taken a bold step by increasing its military budget to 2 percent of its economic output, a step encouraged by the US and rejected by successive German governments for decades.
The US has allocated $13.6 billion for Ukraine in this year’s budget. Other big European economies may do the same in the future, but the destruction of the physical infrastructure of Ukraine will go far beyond these figures.
After successive debacles suffered by the US on various fronts such as in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan, European members of NATO may open a debate on the merits of the US leadership. The emergence of China in the international power balance may further complicate this debate.
Another important component of the military confrontation is the increasing role of mercenaries in modern warfare. Mercenaries have been used since ancient times, but there has been a recent tendency to leave the bulk of the job to them. The US made massive use of Blackwater mercenaries in Iraq. Russian Wagner mercenaries helped Khalifa Haftar in Libya and they are now involved in Ukraine. Turkey has followed suit by establishing its own corps of mercenaries called International Defense Consultancy company — SADAT.
A Turkish newspaper last week reported that a label found on the body of a dead soldier — probably a mercenary — killed in Ukraine reads in English, French and Arabic: “Please help and contact us.” There was a telephone number with a Syrian international dial code and an email address. I called the telephone number. The answering machine said that the number was out of use.
Germany, which dragged Europe into two world wars, may now become an important actor in the defense of Europe.
Ukrainians are doing their best to defend their country, but it seems that an important part of the war will be fought by foreign mercenaries of all kinds. Ukrainian authorities have invited mercenaries from all over the world. This is natural for a country squeezed between a rock and a hard place. However, once the crisis is over, the presence of mercenaries in Ukraine may lead to insurmountable difficulties.
It is not realistic to expect that President Vladimir Putin will lead the Russian society toward a more liberal democracy. Therefore, East-West relations will probably be shaped according to whether post-Putin Russia will evolve toward a more liberal society or the deep-rooted imperialistic impulses of the Russian state tradition. When I was at the NATO Defense College more than half-a-century ago, one of the lecturers used to tell us that NATO was created to protect Europe by “keeping the US in, Russia out and Germany down.” Germany, which dragged Europe into two world wars, may now become an important actor in the defense of Europe.
*Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkey and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar

Iran's Long Arm in Turkey, Turkey's Fake "Peace"
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 20/2022
What, then, revived Iran's covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the "good Turkey" was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The "bad" one is claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states and Egypt.
Iran's mullahs are notoriously good at poisoning peace and stability, at home and in their own neighborhood as well as in distant lands, such as Cuba and Venezuela. After a short pause, the long arm of the mullahs is back to Turkey. Twelve (foiled) plots in such a short time is a "message."
Iran is trying to sabotage the Abraham Accords and their positive transformations in the region by means of subversion in Turkey against Israeli nationals. The Iranians are also vehemently trying to discourage Turkey from reconciling with the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt....
When the UAE moved to normalize relations with Israel, Turkey threatened to downgrade diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi; and Turkey has been at odds with Egypt since 2013. These frictions have placed Turkey on the side of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, while on the other side are the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt. Totally isolated and facing a punishing economic crisis, Erdoğan apparently decided to look as if he were changing course and reconcile with Israel and the Gulf states. The effort shows that Erdoğan was on the wrong course to begin with: He apparently thought Turkey's enemies were Israel and Sunni Arabs while now he should see that the real enemy is Shia Islam, in the form of Iran's theocracy.
Finally, there is a lesson to Westerners who seem blind to Turkey and Iran. These rogue states are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil. What more do they have to do for the international community to hold them to account?
The lesson for governments is: Ignore Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep isolating him to keep him from doing further harm. Isolate him to soften his rigidity on refusing the EastMed pipeline. In other words, if you want to avoid more Turkish damage in the neighborhood, do more to isolate Turkey than you have done in the past decade. And one more thing: The Mediterranean alliance should remain monolithic and, above all, ignore Erdoğan's threats.
Turkey and Iran, rogue states, are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil. What more do they have to do for the international community to hold them to account? The lesson for governments is: Ignore Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep isolating him to keep him from doing further harm. Pictured: Erdoğan meets with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on January 29, 2014. (Image source: Iranian Supreme Leader's website/AFP via Getty Images)
Yair Geller, 75, an Israeli businessman who owns an advanced technologies and engineering company in Turkey, CNC İleri Teknoloji, did not know that his residence in Istanbul was long under surveillance by a cell of assassins operated by the Iranian regime. The assassins did not know that they were long under surveillance by MIT, Turkey's national intelligence agency.
This double cat-and-mouse game went on until the assassins decided that the time was ripe to act and murder Geller. Turkish intelligence, however, decided that the time was ripe to share this information with Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. At a meeting in Ankara, MIT and Mossad concluded that the planned assassination of Geller was supposed to be Iran's retaliation for the November 2020 killing, allegedly by Israel, of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's leading nuclear scientist. Before they could act, nine suspects were detained.
According to Israel's Channel 12 News, the Mossad has helped foil to 12 plots to carry out terror attacks on Israelis in Turkey over the past two years.
Iran's covert operations on Turkish soil are not just sorties of the present. Even before the Geller case, the mullahs in Tehran sent were hunting down Iranians in Turkey who opposed the mullahs' regime in Tehran [see appendix below].
Iran has been continuously accused of supporting radical Islamist organizations and terrorist groups to destabilize and weaken Turkey's then-secular regime. Turkey's official establishment has often accused Iran of trying to "export its theocratic regime to Turkey." Ironically, the Iranians did not need to worry too much about Islamizing Turkey. The Turks could do it themselves.
In 2002, Turks, by popular vote, brought to power Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, an avowed Islamist, and Iranian subversive activity in Turkey gradually faded away, Erdoğan has since proven invincible at the ballot box, and has successfully implemented a stealth plan to advance political Islam in the only Muslim member of NATO.
Turkey's Islamist rulers quietly supported Iranian expansionism for several years based on dictum of "the enemy (Iran) of my enemy (Israel) is my friend."
What, then, revived Iran's covert operations in Turkey? For Iran, the "good Turkey" was the one in constant bickering with the West and Israel. The "bad" one is the one now claiming to seek reconciliation with Israel, the Gulf states and Egypt. The "bad Turkey" is even proposing to buy Israeli natural gas for its own consumption and transport it to Europe.
It was not a coincidence that Turkey had to order gas-fuelled power plants this year to slash gas use by 40% after Iran cut gas exports flows to Turkey for 10 days due to a "technical failure" in the middle of an exceptionally cold January.
Since then, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has taken responsibility for this month's ballistic missile attacks on Iraq's Kurdish regional capital of Erbil. Iran said on March 13 that it was targeting an Israeli "strategic center" in Iraq. "Any repetition of attacks by Israel will be met with a harsh, decisive and destructive response," an IRGC statement said, referring to the alleged recent killing of two of its members in Syria.
Iran's mullahs are notoriously good at poisoning peace and stability, at home and in their own neighborhood as well as in distant lands, such as Cuba and Venezuela. After a short pause, the long arm of the mullahs is back in Turkey. Twelve (foiled) plots in such a short time is a "message." Iran is trying to sabotage the Abraham Accords and their positive transformations in the region by means of subversion in Turkey against Israeli nationals. The Iranians are also vehemently trying to discourage Turkey from reconciling with the Gulf states, Egypt and Israel; they have used even their natural gas card by cutting flows to Turkey.
Turkey in recent years has been in a cold war with the Gulf states, except for Qatar. When the UAE moved to normalize relations with Israel, Turkey threatened to downgrade diplomatic ties with Abu Dhabi, and Turkey has been at odds with Egypt since 2013. These frictions have placed Turkey on the side of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, while on the other side are the Gulf states, Israel and Egypt.
Totally isolated and facing a punishing economic crisis, Erdoğan apparently decided to look as if he were changing course and reconcile with Israel and the Gulf states. The effort shows that Erdoğan was on the wrong course to begin with: He apparently thought Turkey's enemies were Israel and Sunni Arabs while now he should see that the real enemy is Shia Islam, in the form of Iran's theocracy.
Erdoğan, despite all his fake peace efforts, is now lost and alone, even among his Sunni (Arab) and Shia (Iranian) fellow Muslims. He thought the Iranians, just because they are Muslim, were his friends. He was wrong. Those "friends" targeted Turkey 12 times in two years and cut the gas supply in the middle of winter.Fortunately, all the other state actors know very well that Erdoğan cannot be trusted. They can see that he feels squeezed and is faking peace. This view is not about changing him or his intentions. It is about telling him that hostilities in the Mediterranean region are too big for him to bite; that he should stay chained to his fake peace and not create new frictions; that there is a stick hanging over his head; that even his "Muslim friends" hate him, and that he is the bête noire in the neighborhood.
Finally, there is a lesson to Westerners who seem blind to Turkey and Iran. These rogue states are still plotting acts of terror on NATO soil. What more do they have to do for the international community to hold them to account?
The lesson for governments is: Ignore Erdoğan's threats. Do not keep overestimating him or Turkey's clout. Keep isolating him to keep him from doing further harm. Isolate him to soften his rigidity on refusing the EastMed pipeline. In other words, if you want to avoid more Turkish damage in the neighborhood, do more to isolate Turkey than you have done in the past decade. And one more thing: The Mediterranean alliance should remain monolithic and, above all, ignore Erdoğan's threats.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
Appendix
In the 1990s, after a series of assassinations against well-known secular Turkish intellectuals, including Bahriye Üçok, Çetin Emeç, Turan Dursun and Uğur Mumcu, the Turkish security elite hinted at Iranian involvement in these attacks. Confessions of the perpetrators of some terror attacks arguably revealed political and logistical connections between Iran and the militants.
Recently, the Iranians sent Ali Ghahramanihajtabad to hunt down opponents of Iran's regime who resided in Turkey. The Ghahramanihajtabad cell successfully kidnapped an Iranian national in western Anatolia and delivered him to Iranian agents, who took promptly carted back to Iran.
A second target was Shahnam Golshani, an Iranian opponent of Iran's regime who lived in Zonguldak, a port on the Black Sea. The kidnapping had been tasked to a team of Turkish police and non-commissioned military officers.
During the drive there, the Iranian agent was tipped off by an unknown caller; a last-minute abort order failed, and Turkish security forces detained 11 people including the Turkish prosecutor.
In addition, on September 24, 2021, Turkish intelligence and security forces also detained two Iranian agents and their six Turkish operators while the team was about to kidnap a former Iranian military officer, referred to as M.A.
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Is the War in Ukraine Nearing its End or Will it Get More Destructive?
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/March, 20/2022
The war in Ukraine is into its fourth week. Destruction continues. Civilian infrastructure and buildings are targeted. Civilian casualties are increasing. Around three million Ukrainians have fled their country. Russia insists that civilians are not being targeted and everything is going according to plan. That is hardly the case. The Russian military has been able to advance on several fronts, but is facing fierce resistance. Russia is suffering losses and taking heavy casualties on the field. It is said that it has lost around 30 percent of its military capacity (human and machine) that it is engaged in Ukraine. It is also said that Russian casualties for each day are somewhere between 300 to 500. The increasing number of coffins carrying bodies of Russian conscripts back home will make internal opposition even stronger. In case of a prolonged war and especially in case of urban warfare, costs will be even higher. Kadirov’s Chechens, Wagner mercenaries and Syrians are in Ukraine not without reason.
Russia has miscalculated and is isolated.
- It underestimated the determination and fighting spirit of Ukrainians.
- It underestimated Zelensky, whose wartime leadership performance has inspired Ukrainians.
- It underestimated the West, which is united in standing up against Russia’s aggression, unlike in the cases of Georgia and Crimea and also Syria.
Russia has very few friends left. The vote in the United Nations General Assembly on March 2 was very clear about the feeling against Russia.
I would emphasize at this point the saddening incapacity of the United Nations, whose main purpose, as enshrined in Article 1, is “to maintain international peace and security, to take effective collective measures for the prevention and removal of threats to the peace…”.
The structure of the Security Council has become the main obstacle to the Organization in its efforts to do its job. The war in Ukraine is yet another clear case for the need to reform the United Nations and in particular its Security Council.
In the economic field, even though Russia is among the very top natural gas and oil producers and has central bank reserves amounting to $643 billion dollars, sanctions are hurting and this is only the beginning. Putin lashed out on his own oligarchs which shows that sanctions imposed on them have been serving their purpose.
Putin has taken a very serious risk. His reputation, leadership and political future could be at stake. A clear failure of the campaign in Ukraine would strengthen opposition and could eventually lead to his downfall. Thus, Putin cannot go back empty handed.
NATO’s position: The Russian invasion of Ukraine had a uniting effect on NATO. Allies are now mush closer to each other and with a renewed and strengthened spirit of comradeship.
NATO (and its leading country, the United States) has made its position clear from the outset that it will not send troops to Ukraine, nor will it close the airspace as the Ukrainian president has asked for, because such steps would lead to direct confrontation with Russia and war.
NATO also made it very clear that any harm to any of the Allies will activate Article 5 (collective defense) and it will not hesitate to act.
On the other hand, individual NATO member states have a free hand in supplying weapons for self-defense to Ukraine. The US has allocated millions of dollars for this purpose and a couple of days ago, President Biden signed a bill for an additional 200 million dollars for military equipment.
That same day, NATO defense ministers held an extraordinary meeting at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels. Finland, Sweden, Georgia and the European Union were also present. The Ukrainian minister of defense briefed them on the latest developments.
Finland, Sweden and NATO, which already had an active and advanced cooperation partnership, are now even closer. In Finland, a survey found that 62 percent of respondents were in favor of Finland applying for NATO membership. NATO and the European Union, under these extraordinary times, are also institutionally closer.
NATO leaders will meet at an extraordinary session next week in Brussels. We may expect clear messages of resolve and in case of a potential ceasefire agreement, maybe even more.
There have been a number of diplomatic efforts including those of France, Israel, Turkey and some others.
The Russian and Ukranian foreign ministers met for the first time since the war began, actually for the first time in some years, at the margins of the Antalya Security Forum on March 10. Later, the Turkish foreign minister went to Moscow, then onto Lviv in Ukraina, and met with his counterparts.
As far as what is revealed to the public, the results of these meetings can be summarized as messages rather than concrete advances.
In the meantime, Russian and Ukranian delegations met for the fourth time. They have a draft paper and are discussing on a concrete basis. There is talk about a 15-point plan. Russia has confirmed it, Ukraine says it is only Russian demands at this stage. In any case, there is something and it should not be long before we know more.
Yesterday evening President Putin talked to Turkey’s President Erdoğan on the phone. According to what the Turkish president’s top advisor shared with the press after their conversation, Putin spelled out the following:
- Ukraine should be neutral and NATO membership should be dropped.
- Ukraine should undergo a disarmament process.
- There should be de-nazification in Ukraine and the Russian language must be protected.
- Issues regarding (the status of) Donbas and Crimea are to be decided.
There are no surprises in what Putin has put forward. These are obvious issues which any ceasefire or peace deal should include.
I have the following comments:
- The withdrawal of Russian forces from occupied Ukrainian territories is imperative, but which territories could be a matter of debate.
- The independent republics of Luhansk and Donetsk joining Russia at a later stage is a possibility, but unlikely. A more likely scenario should be the Donbas region as a whole remaining part of Ukraine, but with a status of advanced autonomy, coupled with guaranteed rights for the Russian minority there and elsewhere.
- In the case of Crimea, a reversal of Russia’s annexation seems to be quite remote, if not impossible.
- Russian demands for a Russia friendly government and demilitarization of Ukraine are not even remotely serious, I think.
- Russia’s demand for security guarantees (no NATO membership for Ukraine, no deployment of NATO troops and weapons on its territory, neutrality/non-alignment) are probably easier issues to agree on.
Moving beyond bilateral:
- An updated European security structure should be there to alleviate alleged security concerns. The Vienna Document on confidence and security building measures, disarmament and arms control measures and Open Skies like mechanisms may be the answer.
To conclude, the international community has shown this time that aggression will not go unanswered. Clearly, Ukraine is the victim and Russia the aggressor. Putin’s aim may be to make Russia great again, but in reality, he is making Russia and himself weaker and vulnerable.
There are some hope raising moves to bring the war to an end. For the sake of success, both sides should be able to have something that can be presented as a victory or achievement. That is where political leadership, tough decisions and creative diplomacy are most needed.