English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 18/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
“You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?”So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not rich towards God.’”.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/16-21: “Then he told them a parable: ‘The land of a rich man produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, “What should I do, for I have no place to store my crops?” Then he said, “I will do this: I will pull down my barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain and my goods. And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years; relax, eat, drink, be merry.” But God said to him, “You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?”So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not rich towards God.’”.

Titles For The Latest English on March 17-18/2022
UN Special Coordinator briefs Security Council on implementation of Resolution 1701
President Aoun meets new UNIFIL commander, tackles developments with Baabda itinerants
Aoun Meets UNIFIL Chief, Says Israeli Violations Threatening Stability, Sovereignty
Miqati Considers 'Show-Off' Moves against Banks 'Incorrect'
Two Stun Grenades Blow up in Ain al-Remmaneh Causing Material Damage
Judge Aoun Orders Arrest of Raja Salameh after Questioning Him
Banks Threaten to Close as Judiciary Says Fransabank Ruling Won't Affect Wages
Fransabank remains open but unable to perform cash transactions
Makari meets AFP Beirut Bureau chief, discusses array of media issues
Health Minister meets with Egyptian counterpart, WHO regional Director in Cairo
Geagea Says Voting for the FPM is Voting for Hizbullah
Makari meets Tele Liban delegation, pledges support
Mawlawi meets Berri, says Lebanon ready to hold elections
The Forces of Change Face the Challenge of Uniting and Restoring the State/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 17/ 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 16-17/2022
Israeli Army on High Alert in Anticipation of Iranian Drone Attack
Report: 10,000 Iranian Militants Killed in Syria
US, Iran 'Close to Deal' on Reviving Nuclear Pact
Iran defies Western powers with work on near weapons-grade uranium
Scoop: U.S. weighs deal to remove Iran's IRGC from terror blacklist
US Weighs Dropping Iran's IRGC from Terrorism List
U.S. House backs removal of 'most-favored' trade status for Russia, Belarus
The 8 House Republicans who voted against suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus
Britain to Deploy Missile Defense System in Poland
Ukraine Warns of New 'Wall' in Europe as Theater Hit
Cheap but Lethal Turkish Drones Bolster Ukraine’s Defenses
Israel to Start Direct Flights to Egypt's Sharm In April
Canada imposes additional sanctions on Belarusian leadership
Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on Ministerial Conference of La Francophonie
Muslim Brotherhood Scholar Dr. Yasser Al-Naggar: Muslims Are Allowed To Join Either Side Of The Russia-Ukraine War, In Order To Pit Them Against One Another; They Will Be Rewarded For Killing Infidels, Or Be Killed And Become Martyrs

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2022
The fall of the Golden Arch Theory/Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/March 17/2022
How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?/Katherine Bauer and Patrick Clawson/The Washington Insitute/March 17/2022
No Deal with Iran is Better Than A Bad Deal/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2022
Team Biden Runs the Syria Playbook on Ukraine/Tony Badra/The Tablet/March 18/2022
Russia Can Be Made to Pay for Ukraine Damage Now/Robert Litan/Bloomberg/March 17/2022

on March 17-18/2022
UN Special Coordinator briefs Security Council on implementation of Resolution 1701
NNA/March 17/2022
Today, the UN Security Council held closed consultations on the report of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) and the situation in Lebanon. The Council was briefed by UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix.
The Special Coordinator welcomed the continued strong support of the Security Council for Lebanon as it wrestles with crisis and towards a path of reforms, and on the need to preserve the stability between Lebanon and Israel.
The Special Coordinator briefed on the ongoing preparations for parliamentary elections in Lebanon that are due on 15 May, while stressing the need for reliability and predictability, particularly with regards to finalizing the elections budget, the legislative framework and the functionality of the Supervisory Commission for Elections. “The Lebanese voters need and deserve certainty and the ability to make their voices heard”, the Special Coordinator said, hoping that women in particular would participate actively in the elections both as voters and candidates.
Noting with concern the continued socio-economic decline, the suffering of the Lebanese people, and the steady erosion of the public sector, the Special Coordinator reiterated the urgency of implementing tangible reforms. She emphasized the importance of “an equitable and credible economic and financial vision, sound fiscal management, tangible electricity sector reforms, an IMF agreement, an independent judiciary, as well as good governance and anti-corruption measures.”
Urging full adherence to Security Council Resolution 1701 in all its provisions, the Special Coordinator underlined the fragility of the relative calm between Lebanon and Israel.
The Special Coordinator encouraged the Council’s Member States to continue extending their support to the Lebanese Armed Forces and all state security institutions, noting in particular the impact of the crisis and their role in providing security and stability during the upcoming electoral period. The Special Coordinator reiterated the UN’s calls for an impartial, thorough, and transparent investigation into the 4 August 2020 Beirut port explosion to achieve truth and justice for the victims.
The Special Coordinator reaffirmed that the United Nations stands by Lebanon and its people. -- Office of the UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon

President Aoun meets new UNIFIL commander, tackles developments with Baabda itinerants
NNA/March 17/ 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met the new UNIFIL Commander, Major General Aroldo Lazaro, and an accompanying delegation, today at Baabda Palace.
President Aoun asserted the importance of continuing coordination and cooperation between the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL forces, “To maintain calm and stability in the region”.
The President also wished Major General Lazaro success in his new duties, affirming Lebanon’s commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701.
Moreover, President Aoun pointed out that continued Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty threaten the stability of south Lebanon.
For his part, General Lazaro had thanked President Aoun for receiving him for the first time as a new UNIFIL Commander.
General Lazaro also pointed out that Lebanon and its people own a special place in his heart, and expressed his commitment to continue and enhance cooperation between UNIFIL and the Lebanese authorities.
In addition, Major General Lazaro emphasized that he will seek to consolidate the strategic partnership with the Lebanese Armed Forces, “Which constitute our primary partner in performing our tasks”.
General Lazaro also reiterated UNIFIL’s commitment to work to secure stability and promote peace in Lebanon and the region.
“One of my priorities is to consolidate channels of communication and coordination with the concerned parties, complete the demarcation of the Blue Line, and enhance the use of the tripartite mechanism, including the resumption of special talks on this line and finding solutions to disputed matters along it” General Lazaro said.
Moreover, Lazaro considered that this would reduce tension, build confidence and secure space in negotiating to a cease-fire and a lasting peace between Israel and Lebanon.
Regarding the consultations held by the Security Council today to discuss the report on the implementation of Resolution 1701, in addition to providing the usual updates on the situation in the UNIFIL area of operations, General Lazaro expressed his gratitude for the position of President Aoun in support of UNIFIL and condemning the attacks on it.
President Aoun:
For his part, the President welcomed General Lazaro, and wished him success in his new duties. President Aoun stressed that dealing with incidents that sometimes occur between citizens and UNIFIL takes place quickly, describing these incidents as simple and accidental.
The President asserted the importance of continued cooperation and coordination between the Lebanese army and UNIFIL to maintain calm and Finally, President Aoun reiterated Lebanon’s commitment to implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, pointing out that the continued Israeli violations of Lebanese sovereignty on land, sea and air threaten the stability of the southern region.
Word in Honor Record:
Upon leaving Baabda Palace, General Lazaro wrote the following word in the Record of Honor:
“It is a great honor to pay my first visit to the President of the Republic. I am pleased to thank the Lebanese authorities and the President for their constant expression of support for UNIFIL, especially in the recent period, wishing the continuation and strengthening of relations during my term”.
MP Hussein:
The President met MP, Mustafa Hussein, and discussed with him political affairs, and parliamentary elections.
Akkar development needs were also addressed.
Former Minister Wahhab:
President Aoun received the Chairman of the “Arab Unitarian Party”, former minister, Wiam Wahhab.
The needs of the Shouf region and a number of life topics related to the needs of people in various fields, in addition to the upcoming elections were discussed in the meeting.
Former Deputy Premier Zeina Akar:
President Aoun met former Deputy Prime Minister, Mrs. Zeina Akar.
Political developments and the upcoming elections were deliberated.—Presidency Press Office

Aoun Meets UNIFIL Chief, Says Israeli Violations Threatening Stability, Sovereignty
Naharnet/March 17/ 2022
President Michel Aoun told UNIFIL chief Major General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz, Thursday in a meeting, that the Israeli violations are threatening Lebanon's stability and sovereignty. Aoun underlined Lebanon's commitment to the U.N. resolution 1701, condemning the Israeli violations. He mentioned the attacks on peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, describing them as "simple and minor." "They are being resolved in a quick manner," Aoun added. He also stressed the importance of maintaining the cooperation between UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army in order to keep the calm and the stability in the region.'

Miqati Considers 'Show-Off' Moves against Banks 'Incorrect'
Associated Press/March 17/ 2022
The assets of Fransabank were seized and all monetary operations were suspended and safes and registers were sealed with red wax, after a depositor filed a lawsuit against the bank. Earlier this week, Judge Ghada Aoun had also frozen the assets of five of Lebanon’s largest banks and those of their board of directors as she investigates possible transfers of billions of dollars aboard during the country’s economic meltdown. "This is not right," Prime Minister Najib Miqati said Wednesday, describing what is happening as a "show-off." "This boastful method is dangerous," Miqati said. He added that it would affect what remains of trust in the Lebanese banking system. "I fear that matters might develop into dire consequences," Miqati said. Lebanese banks have imposed informal capital controls since the economic crisis began in October 2019 after decades of corruption and mismanagement by the country’s political class. Since then, people do not have full access to their savings and those who withdraw cash from their U.S. dollar accounts get an exchange rate far lower than that of the black market. Judge Aoun's move this week came days after she imposed travel bans on the directors of the five banks. Local TV stations said the travel bans were precautionary as auditors look into transfers by the banks worth $5 billion. In January, Aoun also imposed a travel ban on Lebanon’s central bank governor after a corruption lawsuit accused him of embezzlement and dereliction of duty during the crisis.

Two Stun Grenades Blow up in Ain al-Remmaneh Causing Material Damage
Naharnet/March 17/ 2022
Two explosions were heard in Ain al-Remmaneh at dawn Thursday, as two percussion bombs were thrown in the area, damaging shops and cars.The persons who threw the bombs remain unknown. Security forces came to the place, and investigations were launched.
Meanwhile, al-Jadeed TV said that a quarrel had occurred at night in Ain al-Remmaneh, where the two hand grenades were later thrown. Lebanese Forces MP Pierre Bou Assi said he will inspect the site, which lies near an LF office. "WE CAN throw (real) grenades, not percussion bombs, but we don't want to," Bou Assi said. "Stop provoking Ain al-Remmaneh," he added.

Judge Aoun Orders Arrest of Raja Salameh after Questioning Him
Naharnet/March 17/ 2022
Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun on Thursday ordered the detention of the businessman Raja Salameh, the brother of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, after questioning him for several hours.
"Raja Salameh was detained during his interrogation at the Justice Palace and Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh will be summoned," the lawyers of the People Want to Reform the Regime group told al-Jadeed TV. "The lawsuit against Raja Salameh under which he has been detained is based on an investigative report carried out by the Reuters agency," the lawyers added. Al-Jadeed had earlier reported that the questioning was related to a lawsuit filed by an activist group. The lawsuit accuses Raja Salameh of suspicious contracts and money transfers to accounts outside Lebanon, it said.

Banks Threaten to Close as Judiciary Says Fransabank Ruling Won't Affect Wages
Naharnet/March 17/ 2022
A senior banking official has warned that Lebanon will likely plunge into a dire LBP liquidity crisis, amid the current unusual escalation between banks and some judges that has involved the freezing and seizure of assets belonging to some banks. This might push banks’ administrations to “hold emergency meetings amid calls for escalating the confrontation, all the way to taking a decision to shut down collectively as a warning move, and demanding that the government and the central bank intervene in an urgent manner to address the growing crises in a fair way,” the official told Ashraq al-Awsat newspaper in remarks published Thursday. The decision to seize Fransabank’s assets has meanwhile alarmed citizens, especially amid reports that the salaries of the public and private sectors would be affected. A judicial source, however, has played down the impact of the move on wages, noting that the judiciary will seek to balance between “protecting the rights of citizens and depositors” and “preserving the banking sector.”The judiciary will make sure that these measures “won’t be exploited in political conflicts,” the source added. The source also reassured that “the court of enforcement has kept cash registers and ATMs open, so that people can withdraw their money and salaries,” noting that only Fransabank’s “main safes have been sealed with red wax to prevent the bank from disposing of what’s in them.”A Fransabank source meanwhile told Asharq al-Awsat that the ruling “will have very negative repercussions,” warning that it will “deprive depositors from the ability to withdraw portions of their money” and will also “prevent state employees from getting paid their salaries.”Citizens’ “problem is not with Fransabank anymore, but rather with the court that issued this ruling and rushed to implement it without caring for its disastrous consequences,” the source added.

Fransabank remains open but unable to perform cash transactions
NNA/March 17/ 2022
Following the judicial order issued on Wednesday 16.03.2022 against Fransabank SAL to freeze the Bank’s shares, properties and assets in relation with a lawsuit initiated by a former client, claiming non-receipt of his deposit, Fransabank SAL would like to clarify the following:
1- Mr. Ayad IBRAHIM had an account at Fransabank SAL with a deposit of USD 34,139 (thirty four thousand and one hundred thirty nine US dollars).
2- Mr. Ibrahim requested all his deposit to be withdrawn in full in cash US $ currency. However, due to current prevailing restriction, and as per The Association of Banks in Lebanon’s decision, Fransabank SAL returned the deposit, in full, to the client by bankers check drawn on BDL and consigned with a Public Notary on December 8, 2021. Two days later, the claimant duly received and signed on the check receipt along with account closing documents. At this stage, the bank considered this matter legally closed.
3- At a later stage, Mr. Ibrahim raised a court case against Fransabank SAL, asking for the reopening of his account with the bank and the receipt of his deposit in full cash US $ currency. This could not be done since the account at Fransabank SAL was already closed.
4- The judicial order issued on Wednesday 16 March 2022 by Judge Mariana Anani concerning this claim includes the closing of Fransabank’s vaults in all its branches and to be sealed with red wax, which was done by noon of the same day, making the bank unable to operate normally in relation to all cash transactions including ATMs.
5- Fransabank, while considering this judgement abusive as per above-mentioned case, abides by the judicial order and an appeal of such order is under way.
6- In the afternoon of that same day, Judge Anani verbally instructed the designated judicial officers to remove some - but not all - of the red wax sealing of Fransabank SAL vaults in one of its branches. However, central vaults remained sealed, limiting the bank’s ability to resume its normal cash operations.
7- As such, and while awaiting the appeal of such order, Fransabank branches will remain open but unable to execute any cash transactions including those done through its ATMs.
Fransabank SAL confirms that it fully abides by all laws and regulations, by judicial orders and by the Central Bank of Lebanon’s directives. -- Fransabank press release

Makari meets AFP Beirut Bureau chief, discusses array of media issues
NNA/March 17/ 2022
Information Minister, Ziad al-Makari, on Thursday welcomed in his office at the Ministry, Agence France-Presse (AFP) Beirut Bureau chief, Jean-Marc Mojon, in the presence of the Head of the Ministry’s Foreign Correspondents Press Room, Marwan Shoukri, and Francophone Affairs Advisor, Elissar Naddaf. Discussions reportedly touched on media issues, especially foreign media professionals’ affairs.Minister Makari expressed readiness to facilitate matters of foreign media offices and agencies present in Lebanon. Discussions also touched on the possibility of training journalists of the National News Agency, whereby Minister Makari suggested conducting training workshops on ways to combat false news, in addition to the issue of covering parliamentary elections. Mojon pointed out the cooperation between the Information Ministry and the AFP, highlighted the necessity of fighting fake news to restore citizens' trust in the media. Mojon also spoke about the problems faced by the foreign media in Lebanon, especially the Internet crisis.

Health Minister meets with Egyptian counterpart, WHO regional Director in Cairo
NNA/March 17/ 2022
Minister of Public Health, Dr. Firas Al-Abiad, on Thursday held bilateral talks with Egyptian Minister of Higher Education and Acting Minister of Health, Dr. Khaled Abdel Ghaffar. The meeting discussed the means to boost health cooperation between the two countries in a bid to mitigate the medicine crisis in Lebanon, especially that Egypt currently witnesses an advanced pharmaceutical industry at competitive prices. Both two sides also discussed "the modernization and development of health systems and the means to benefit from the Egyptian experience after suffering a massive crisis a few years ago. The Egyptian minister affirmed his country's commitment to provide all the required support to Lebanon, “whether through direct aid or by facilitating communication with brotherly and friendly countries to support the health system and help Lebanon amid its crisis." For his part, Abiad thanked his Egyptian counterpart, especially for the aid shipment that Lebanon received back in February, 2022, which is the largest among other relief shipments. “This kind of solidarity gives Lebanon full confidence that it will be able to overcome its difficult ordeal,” Abiad added. The Health Minister also met in the Egyptian capital, World Health Organization’s Regional Director, Dr. Ahmed Al-Mandhari. Talks mainly followed up on Lebanon’s medicine crisis and the means to strengthen the health system by supporting primary health care services. Emphasis was also placed on "the necessity of providing basic vaccines in light of the decline in the vaccination rate, which poses a threat, not only to Lebanon, but also to the region."For his part, Abiad pointed out that "the efforts being exerted with the World Health Organization, and other organizations, are now advanced, especially with regard to securing a number of cancer medicines in cooperation with the World Health Organization.”

Geagea Says Voting for the FPM is Voting for Hizbullah
Naharnet/March 17/ 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Thursday that voting for the Free Patriotic Movement is exactly like voting for Hizbullah. Geagea slammed, in a statement, the relation between Hizbullah and the FPM, after Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said that Hizbullah's battle is to make its allies succeed in the parliamentary elections."We can say objectively that any Lebanese who votes for the FPM would be actually voting for Hizbullah," Geagea said. He accused the FPM of pretending it had disagreements with Hizbullah, although both parties agree "on everything that prevents building a state," and "on constantly exposing Lebanon to grave dangers in the name of resistance.""Both agree on undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty and on preventing the disarmament of all groups other than the Lebanese Army," Geagea added.

Makari meets Tele Liban delegation, pledges support
NNA/March 17/ 2022
Information Minister, Ziad al-Makari, on Thursday welcomed a Tele Liban delegation headed by Hanna Bawari. The meeting mainly discussed Tele Liban’s affairs and concerns, especially the conditions of its employees. For his part, Minister Makari promised to follow up on the matter and endeavor to meet the needs of Tele Liban employees. “Tele Liban is the symbol and facade of Lebanon's media sector,” he added.

Mawlawi meets Berri, says Lebanon ready to hold elections
NNA/March 17/ 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday welcomed at his Ain al-Tineh residence Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, with whom he reviewed the general conditions and preparations underway for holding parliamentary elections. The pair also took stock of the country’s security situation."We are determined to hold the elections, and we insist on overcoming all the obstacles that may obstruct them. We ask of all the Lebanese to trust us; we are ready for elections. The Lebanese have the right to hold legislative elections, and they will be held,” Mawlawi added

The Forces of Change Face the Challenge of Uniting and Restoring the State!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/March 17/ 2022
The 2022 parliamentary elections are not a repeat of the 2018 elections or any other election. When discussing the collapse, destitution, starvation, and people being left to die at hospital gates, the cause of these tragedies- the parties to the alliance between the mafia and the militia that looted, impoverished and hijacked the state after plundering the country’s resources- are always part of the conversation.
The value of the lira collapsed, and its purchasing power was decimated, with the exchange rate against the dollar rising from 1,500 to 33,000 Liras, the price of a bundle of bread rising from 1,500 to 11,000 Liras, the price of a tank of gasoline from about 20 thousand to 500 thousand Liras, and the same is true for diesel and gas. Cancer patients are being killed in their homes because of medicine shortage, and recently, prisoners were killed after they weren’t given treatment. $80 billion worth of bank deposits have been robbed, and two million citizens went from living comfortably to becoming impoverished. After $48 billion were squandered on electricity, the country sank into complete darkness. With 82 percent of the Lebanese having been impoverished, Lebanon has become a hub for skilled labor migration, and the country’s coastline has become a dock hosting “death boats” carrying those hoping to escape hell. Former Prime Minister Fouad Siniora has said that corruption has been enshrined into law. Every budget passed by Lebanese governments was loaded with crony dealings and wasteful spending on projects that provided the country’s people with nothing, like dams that do not collect water and deals for ships delivering electricity that hindered the construction of power plants. Parliaments gave their stamp of approval. Moreover, as we all know, Lebanon’s balance of payments has been negative for 12 years, and so the authorities went about financing their crony dealings through the people’s bank deposits through the schemes Central Bank Governor cooked up with a banking cartel that turned out to be a gang of loan sharks who destroyed a more than 100-year-old banking industry.
A mere glance at the names of the majority candidates fielded by the regime led by Hezbollah that is running the country, which sees the party in alliance with the President of the Republic and the Amal Movement, as well as the minors parties tied to the Syrian regime, leaves citizens feeling the depth of the hatred that this regime’s figures harbor for the majority of the Lebanese people . The others, albeit to divergent degrees, are also “beyond the pale.”
Hezbollah nominated the deputies that had been elected to Parliament in 2018 “because they have been productive,” according to Nasrallah. Meanwhile, the electoral program of Speaker Berri, who has been the Speaker of Parliament for 30 years, is based on three axes; the first is “not infringing on the rights of depositors,” which was translated into impeding the ratification of a “capital control” law that would have prevented smuggling. And so, he is now nominating the notorious Marwan Khair El-Din, a banker accused of seizing billions of dollars from citizens and pushed for “Lirafication-” that is, forcibly converting deposits in foreign currency into Lebanese Pounds, thereby leaving depositors to bear the costs of the authorities’ corruption! The second axis is “following through on the investigation of the port blast.” Thus, he re-nominated two deputies, Zuaiter and Khalil, who are evading justice after having been charged with the felony of “possible intent” to murder as part of the investigation into the port crime. Berri leads the ranks of those clinging to immunity and defending the “regime of impunity”! The third axis is “not squandering a cubic meter of the oil wealth Lebanon has in its waters.” He was the one who concluded the “framework agreement” with the US in which Lebanon gave up on Line 29, the maritime border as agreed in the armistice agreement of 1949 and the Blue Line of 2000. In addition, along with his partners in the regime, he agreed to the exclusive economic zone that is bigger than the country’s South Governorate and is worth an estimated $100 billion, including the lion’s share of the Karish gas field, which Israel has already laid its hands on.
Nonetheless, surrealism peaks with Basil’s announcement of the presidential team’s candidates. He painted them as part of the opposition. “We want to bring electricity, build dams, extract oil and gas, and build the state,” he said, overlooking the fact that the Ministry of Energy has been under part of his faction’s share for 15 years and that the alliance he is part of has held a third of government seats for the same period. On top of that, Aoun has been President for over 5 years. Their “achievements,” covering for the statelet’s arms and Hezbollah’s hijacking of the state, as well as perpetuating the policy of isolating Lebanon from its Arab neighbors. So when and how will he achieve these demands? In any case, his list of candidates included, in addition to a man convicted of having collaborated with Israel, 3 former energy ministers who left the country in total darkness.
They continue to offend and show their contempt for the people by nominating criminals, corrupt officials, fugitives who have been sanctioned, and people accused of collaborating with the enemy and subordination to the Syrian regime or being held hostage by the Velayat-e-Faqih regime. With the help of sectarian electoral law, which is neither constitutional nor aligned with the people’s will, Hezbollah seeks to obtain a two-third majority in Parliament, impose a candidate for the Presidency, and ratify constitutional amendments that up the balance of power upon which the constitution was founded, thereby changing the Taif regime and potentially legitimizing the statelet’s arsenal.
Hezbollah’s plan is aided by Hariri’s decision to suspend political activity and his efforts to sow despair and encourage a boycott, impeding attempts in the Sunni street to stand up to the “axis of resistance.” He wasn’t satisfied with paving the way for Aoun’s presidency and providing the stamp of approval to the settlement that put the country’s decision-making in the hand of the Iran axis; indeed, it seems that since reaching this ruinous settlement, he continues to give Nasrallah gifts and shows no reluctance to take down anyone who tries to stand up to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Mikati’s decision not to run is an attempt to “sit on the fence” in managing these elections, with the confidence that he will remain in the prime minister’s office, and a party to the normalization of the 2016 settlement, without bearing the costs that Hariri had paid.
The hope is that- based on the sectarian preferential voice law and the capabilities of the authority and the intimidation of arms- the challenge posed by nominating such candidates, which as has already been stated, have the Karish alliance behind them, the elections will be a referendum on the current developments in the region. The elections will turn into more than an attempt to leave the Mafia militia alliance above water, serving as a road to amnesty for the crimes committed, from the looting to the crime of the port blast and the resulting genocide... and perhaps also amnesty for subsequent crimes.
The October 17 “revolution” brought about a profound change, as it exposed the naked criminality of the authoritarian structure. It is an obsession of these authoritarians to consolidate their domination through complex elections based on a law that is a fabrication aimed at electoral fraud, as well as through financial obstacles that, in light of the great financial collapse, prevent people from engaging in these elections. It is imperative that the forces of change rise to the double challenge of running in these elections: Lists that are unified along political alliances bring together the highest common denominator of shared views, disregarding obsessions with vote sorting and shows of force, under a platform of rescuing the country and restoring a state that was hijacked with arms, corruption and sectarianism. The challenge, in its entirety, is to formulate unified lists before April 4th –the date for registering electoral lists, to reflect the strength of these forces of change and expose the crimes of the “Karish Alliance.” As such, the ballot box will be able to realize what the people seek. Without this, a parliamentary majority will not be able to manifest itself, and these elections will not serve the hopes envisaged by people of initiating the process of rescuing Lebanon and placing it on the right track in order to emerge out of crises and mitigate the state of perturbation in which the Lebanese find themselves.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 17-18/2022
Israeli Army on High Alert in Anticipation of Iranian Drone Attack
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magali/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
The Israeli army increased its alert level on the Syrian and Lebanese borders in anticipation of Iranian attacks, according to security sources in Tel Aviv. The sources said that Tehran took a clear escalatory step when it announced its responsibility for the bombing of an "Israeli" site in Erbil with 12 ballistic missiles. The sources stressed that the recent Israeli strikes were very harsh on Iran, especially the recent attack when Israel destroyed about 600 drones on Iranian territory and the attack on Syrian territory earlier this week, which killed two senior fighters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria. Israel announced its alert status in the Israeli diplomatic headquarters in Azerbaijan, Iran's northern neighbor. US sources revealed that the Israeli airstrike on an Iranian drone factory last month took off from an Israeli site in Azerbaijan. Israeli sources condemned the United States' disclosure that the Iranian bombing in April targeted Israeli training sites, warning that it only brings harm. The drone war between Israel and Iran escalated in recent years. In February 2018, the first significant event occurred when Iran launched a drone into the occupied territories in response to the airstrikes in Syria.
The drone was shot down, and the Israeli army responded by attacking targets in Syria, including the car that launched the drone. The Iranian drone was carrying many explosives and was on a mission above military sites in the Syrian Golan Heights. In August 2019, Israel thwarted two explosive drones sent to Israeli positions on Jabal al-Sheikh in the northern Golan. The army killed the cell members who launched the drone, who were Lebanese of the IRGC's Special Task Force. It led to security tension and the exchange of strikes on the border with Lebanon that lasted for several months. In recent years, Israel has been accused of launching various explosive drone operations against nuclear facilities in Iran. During the last war on the Gaza Strip, in May 2021, Iran launched a drone that penetrated the Jordan Valley and was shot down. Last week, the Israeli army revealed that two drones sent from Iran had been intercepted and shot down over the skies of other countries in the Middle East using F-35 stealth aircraft. Israel is running an international campaign against Iranian activity, stressing that Tehran's stockpile of lethal drones and ballistic missiles threatens all regional and Western countries, not only Israel. The commander of the US Central Command, General Kenneth McKenzie, said before the Senate Armed Forces Services Committee that Iran has over 3000 ballistic missiles of various types, some of which can reach Tel Aviv. "None of them can reach Europe yet, but over the last five to seven years … they have invested heavily in their ballistic missile program," McKenzie said. "Their missiles have significantly greater range and significantly enhanced accuracy," he added, saying it is a "remarkable" advancement.

Report: 10,000 Iranian Militants Killed in Syria
Damascus, London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022 -
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) documented the death of 499,657 people since the outbreak of the Syrian uprising. The Observatory also announced that the death toll included 1,712 Lebanese Hezbollah members and 8,628 others from non-Syrian militiamen backed by Iran and Russia.
Last year, the United Nations Human Rights Office announced that it compiled a list of 350,209 identified individuals killed in the conflict in Syria between March 2011 to March 2021. In March 2011, the Observatory announced that 494,438 people had been killed since the start of the conflict in Syria when protests turned into an armed conflict. The Observatory said that the civilian deaths are 160,681, including 120,158 men, 15,237 women, and 25,286 children in its new report.
It detailed the deaths as follows: 49,359 civilians died under torture in regime prisons, 52,508 were killed in shelling and gunfire by regime forces, and 26,403 in airstrikes by the regime’s air force. In addition, 8,683 civilians were killed by Russian bombardments, and 2,504 others were killed in airstrikes, the source of which was not confirmed. SOHR also reported that factions killed 2,320 civilians, militants killed 900 civilians, while 1,692 civilians died in various attacks. Up to 919 civilians died of poor living conditions, and the International Coalitions killed 2,676 civilians.
The non-civilian deaths amounted to 338,976 and were distributed as follows: 91,267 from the regime forces, 67,242 from militias loyal to the regime, Iran and Russia, 1,712 from the Lebanese Hezbollah, and 8,628 from non-Syrian militiamen backed by Iran and Russia.
The list also included 8,017 dead during the fighting and militant factions, 3,588 dissidents from the regime forces, 10,886 of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), 3,228 Kurdish fighters, and 41,101 ISIS terrorists. The Observatory added that the figures do not include more than 55,000 citizens killed under torture in the regime’s prisons.The report also does not account for over 3,200 Kurdistan Workers’ Party fighters who were killed during their fight alongside the SDF.
Furthermore, the Observatory could not verify the status of over 3,200 civilians and fighters abducted in ISIS prisons and more than 4,100 prisoners and missing members of the regime forces and loyal militiamen. The Observatory said that over 1,800 persons were kidnapped by militant factions, ISIS, and Fateh al-Sham Front (former Jabhat Al-Nusra) on charges of “loyalty to the regime.” The ongoing military operations, shelling, bombardment, and various explosions have injured more than 2.1 million civilians and displaced about 13,000,000 other civilians, including hundreds of thousands of children and women. Meanwhile, the US State Department said that Washington does not support efforts to normalize relations with the Assad regime and will not normalize relations until there is irreversible progress towards a political solution. “We will not normalize relations with Assad until and unless there is irreversible progress towards that political solution. The Syrian people deserve nothing less after more than a decade of war,” said spokesman Ned Price.”

US, Iran 'Close to Deal' on Reviving Nuclear Pact
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
The United States and Iran are near to reaching an agreement over reviving the 2015 deal on limiting Tehran's nuclear program, the State Department said Wednesday. "We are close to a possible deal, but we're not there yet," said State Department spokesman Ned Price. "We do think the remaining issues can be bridged." Speaking to reporters, Price declined to confirm Tehran's claim that there were just two final issues to be sorted out before agreeing to restore the six-party Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which aimed to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. The outstanding issues, according to sources close to the talks, are Iran's demands for "economic guarantees" in case a future US administration changes its stance and abrogates the agreement, as president Donald Trump did in 2018; and that Washington remove its official terror group designation on Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards.Price said the issues are surmountable but that the 11-month-old talks "are at a very delicate stage.""There is little time remaining given the nuclear advancements that Tehran has made" toward developing nuclear weapons that would undermine any agreement, he said. "This is an issue that needs to be worked urgently," he added. Even if a deal is near, the State Department's top negotiator in the Vienna talks, Rob Malley, remains in Washington, suggesting that nothing would be signed in the coming days, AFP reported. Also possibly delaying a deal is the Iranian Nowruz New Year celebration which takes place on Sunday.

Iran defies Western powers with work on near weapons-grade uranium
Reuters/March 17/2022
Iran has defied Western powers by converting some of its uranium enriched to near weapons-grade into a form less easily recovered, diluted and shipped out of the country, a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog on Wednesday showed. The move is unlikely to wreck indirect talks between Iran and the United States to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal but it will make it harder to implement any resulting agreement to return to the limits on Iran's stock of enriched uranium. U.S. allies France, Britain and Germany, which are involved in the talks, said as much in a joint statement issued last Tuesday in which they demanded that Iran not carry out the work. "We strongly urge Iran to avoid undertaking any new escalations and in particular, call upon Iran to immediately cease all activity related to conversion of highly enriched uranium, which will have practical implications for returning to JCPoA limits," they said in the statement, calling the deal by its full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The agreement, which diplomats say is nearing completion, would require Iran to get rid of its stock of uranium enriched above the deal's limit of 3.67% purity. Its most highly enriched uranium is roughly 60%, close to the 90% of weapons grade, of which it has about 33 kg (73 lb). Until its latest move outlined in last Thursday's International Atomic Energy Agency report to member states, Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% was all in the form of uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for uranium-enriching centrifuges. Uranium hexafluoride can easily be diluted and transported, a process delegates at the talks have been discussing for months.The confidential report, seen by Reuters and summarized in a short statement by the IAEA, said that between March 6 and March 9 the IAEA verified that Iran had converted 2.1 kg (4.6 lb) of its up to 60% uranium into 1.7 kg (3.8 lb) in a different form enriched to the same level suitable for making small "targets" for irradiation. Irradiating such targets produces molybdenum-99, a medical isotope that produces another one widely used in medical diagnostic imaging. What remains of the target includes highly enriched uranium in a form that must be processed to recover it. On March 11 and 13 the IAEA verified Iran had produced 32 targets containing a total of 186.7 grams (6.6 ounces) of uranium enriched up to 60%, the report said, adding that Iran later declared they had all been irradiated. The agency then verified on March 15 that Iran had produced another batch of 56 targets containing a total of 329 grams (11.6 ounces) of uranium enriched to the same level, the report said.
*Reporting by Francois Murphy; editing by Jonathan Oatis

Scoop: U.S. weighs deal to remove Iran's IRGC from terror blacklist
Barak Ravid/Axios/March 17/2022
The Biden administration is considering removing Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from a terror blacklist in return for a public commitment from Iran to de-escalation in the region, three Israeli officials and two U.S. sources tell me. Why it matters: An agreement to restore the 2015 nuclear deal is nearly complete, but Iran's demand that President Biden reverse Donald Trump's decision to designate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organization is a key remaining sticking point. The IRGC is not only Iran's most feared military branch, it's also a powerful political and economic player. The terror designation means that even if Biden lifts nuclear sanctions to return to compliance with the deal, criminal penalties could still be imposed on anyone doing business with individuals or businesses connected to the IRGC. But removing the designation is a political hot potato for Biden. It would create an uproar from Republicans and likely several Democrats in the Senate. Between the lines: The IRGC designation is not directly related to the nuclear deal, and any decision would take the form of a separate bilateral understanding between the U.S. and Iran, according to the U.S. and Israeli sources.
One idea being discussed by the Biden administration would be a public announcement that the U.S. reserves the right to redesignate the IRGC if it determines that Iran did not follow through on its pledge to de-escalate in the region. The Israeli officials say the Biden administration briefed the Israeli government that such possibilities are being considered but stressed that no decisions have been made. The Israeli government is concerned about the idea, and in particular, the fact that the U.S. didn't demand specific commitments from Iran not to target the U.S. and its allies in the region, two senior Israeli officials tell me.
Behind the scenes: When former Vice President Mike Pence visited Israel last week, he claimed in meetings with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid that Biden planned to delist the IRGC in return for a more narrow commitment not to target Americans, two Israeli officials said.
When the Israelis checked this in Washington, they were told the Biden administration had discussed this possibility but ruled it out. Asked about Pence's description, a senior State Department official told Axios: “It should not be a surprise to anyone that descriptions of our talks from critics not involved in the process are inaccurate." Pence’s team declined to comment. State of play: The State Department official said no decision has been made on the IRGC designation and “any speculation to the contrary is simply uninformed." Nevertheless, the official stressed that regardless, the IRGC will remain on a separate terror list and subject to numerous sanctions, and the U.S. will still have a "panoply of tools to counter Iran’s destabilizing activities." Another senior U.S. official claimed that it would be "pure speculation" to talk about details of a deal that isn't complete yet, but added, "It’s clear that President Trump and Vice President Pence’s withdrawal and maximum pressure campaign have been a clear failure" because Iran has only increased its nuclear activity and regional aggression. Worth noting: Trump's 2019 designation of the IRGC as an FTO was the first time a state entity was added to the list.

US Weighs Dropping Iran's IRGC from Terrorism List
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
The United States is considering removing Iran's Revolutionary Guards from its foreign terrorist organization blacklist in return for Iranian assurances about reining in the elite force, a source familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. The source said Washington had not decided what might be an acceptable commitment from Tehran in exchange for such a step, which would reverse former US President Donald Trump's 2019 blacklisting of the group and draw sharp Republican criticism, Reuters reported. The move was the first time Washington had formally labeled part of another sovereign government as a terrorist group. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is a powerful faction in Iran that controls a business empire as well as elite armed and intelligence forces that Washington accuses of carrying out a global terrorist campaign. The source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Biden administration was weighing whether to drop the terrorist designation "in return for some kind of commitment and/or steps by Iran, with respect to regional or other IRGC activities."The Biden administration's consideration of such a tradeoff was first reported by Axios, citing Israeli and US sources.
Multiple sources have said dropping the designation is one of the last, and most vexing, issues in wider indirect talks on reviving the 2015 deal under which Iran limited its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions. Asked about the possibility of removing the IRGC from the US terrorism list, US State Department spokesman Ned Price declined to comment beyond saying that sanctions relief is at the heart of negotiations to revive the nuclear deal.

U.S. House backs removal of 'most-favored' trade status for Russia, Belarus
Reuters/March 17, 2022
The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly backed legislation on Thursday to remove "most favored nation" trade status for Russia and Belarus over the invasion of Ukraine, paving the way for higher tariffs on imports from the countries. The Democratic-controlled House voted 424-8 in favor of removing Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, the latest congressional effort to put economic pressure on Moscow.To become law, the measure must also pass the Senate. Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said it would move through the Senate quickly, after approval by the House.
The move to revoke Russia's status at the World Trade Organization is being coordinated with similar efforts by other G7 democracies. It would automatically raise U.S. tariffs to non-WTO rates for imports from Russia and it authorizes U.S. President Joe Biden to proclaim higher tariff rates on products from both Russia and Belarus.But after a ban on U.S. imports of Russian energy products last week, the impact from the tariff status change may be largely symbolic, said Chad Bown, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "Looking at the data, we just don't import a lot of stuff from Russia," Bown said. According to World Bank data, the biggest non-petroleum imports from Russia in 2020 were palladium, raw "pig" iron, rhodium, unwrought aluminum alloys, plywood and fertilizers. Palladium and rhodium are used in automotive catalytic converters.
The House vote took place a day after Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy made an emotional speech to Congress - via videolink - appealing for more support. Many lawmakers wore Ukrainian flag pins as they voted. The measure also would expand the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act, easing the imposition of sanctions on Russian officials for human rights violations. All eight "no" votes came from Republicans, some of whom said the Magnitsky provision gave too much power to the president. "If we do not speak out for human rights because of commercial interests, we lose all moral authority to speak out for human rights," Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, urging support for the bill.Republican Representative Victoria Spartz, the only Ukrainian-born member of Congress, said it was important that close Russian ally Belarus was included. "We cannot create a loophole where Putin is going to use Belarus to funnel money through them," she said.The measure also directs U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai to use "the voice and influence of the United States at the WTO" to encourage other countries to suspend trade concessions to Russia and to halt Belarus' accession to the trade body. (Reporting by Patricia Zengerle; additional reporting by David Lawder; Editing by Franklin Paul, Alexandra Hudson and David Gregorio)

The 8 House Republicans who voted against suspending normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus
Bryan Metzger/Business Insider/Thu, March 17, 2022
From left: Republican Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Thomas Massie of Kentucky. All voted against the Russia trade bill.
From left: Republican Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Thomas Massie of Kentucky. All voted against the Russia trade bill.Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images The House of Representatives passed a bill to suspend normal trade relations with Russia and Belarus. Eight House Republicans voted against the bill on Thursday. Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Lauren Boebert, and Thomas Massie were among them.
The House of Representatives passed a bill on Thursday to suspend normal trade relations with both Russia and Belarus amid the war in Ukraine. The Suspending Normal Trade Relations with Russia and Belarus Act, which passed by a 424-8 margin, allows President Joe Biden to increase tariffs on products coming from the two countries and requires the US Trade Representative to seek suspension of Russia's participation in the World Trade Organization.The legislation must now pass the Senate and be signed by Biden to be enacted into law.
This move comes one day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's address to Congress, and a week after the House also voted to enact tougher sanctions on Russia and ban the importation of oil from the country. Seventeen members of Congress, overwhelmingly Republicans, voted against that measure. Belarus, though not the primary aggressor in the current conflict, is a close ally of Moscow and has allowed its territory to be used by Russian troops for staging invasions.
While Congress has been relatively unified in calling for Russia to be punished and for the US to support Ukraine, some on the right flank of the party have adopted a different tactic. Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina faced criticism from members of the GOP after he called Zelenskyy a "thug" at an event with constituents.
Here are the eight Republicans who voted against the bill on Thursday:
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia
Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida
Rep. Lauren Boebert of Colorado
Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky
Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona
Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina
Rep. Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin
Rep. Chip Roy of Texas
Most are on the right flank of the Republican Party, and are among the most loyal supporters of former President Donald Trump.
Greene, for her part, bemoaned in a Thursday floor speech that "all we're hearing on the news is Ukraine" and claimed that "Washington seems to care more about sending our sons and daughters to a potential war" than more pressing domestic issues.
Biden has repeatedly pledged not to send Americans troops to Ukraine.
Massie told Insider in an email that "this bill allows Biden and future Presidents to sanction virtually anyone they choose anywhere on the globe without Congressional approval," which he later tweeted about as well.
Boebert told Insider in an email that Congress "keeps focusing on distractions abroad and not our own challenges brought on by Joe Biden at home," adding that she believed the bill had "bad language" that could empower Biden to sanction people who "simply hold traditional views of life and family and restrict access to abortion."Roy told Insider via email that he would've supported the bill if targeting Russia and Belarus were the sole focus, but he took issue with the legislation because it would "permanently empower the President with the unilateral authority to issue sanctions against anyone who he deems responsible for an undefined 'serious human rights abuse.'"

Britain to Deploy Missile Defense System in Poland
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
Britain will deploy its latest medium-range missile defense system in Poland, Defense Secretary Ben Wallace announced Thursday in Warsaw. Poland, which borders Ukraine, risks becoming a future target of Russian attacks after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24.
The Sky Sabre system will help Poland defend its airspace from Russian weapons. "As a NATO ally and a very old ally, Britain stands by Poland as Poland carries much of the burden of the consequences of this war," Wallace said after a meeting with Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak.
"We stand alongside Poland and protecting their air base from any further aggression by Russia", Wallace added. Under the new agreement, Britain will help Poland develop the same missile defense system. Britain has not revealed when the system will be deployed or for how long. Sky Sabre has "the ability to hit a tennis ball at the speed of sound", Wallace said.

Ukraine Warns of New 'Wall' in Europe as Theater Hit
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
Ukraine's leader on Thursday said Russia was building a new Cold War wall across Europe "between freedom and bondage", after his government accused invading forces of bombing a theatre sheltering many civilians and marked with the word "children."Kyiv emerged from a 35-hour curfew to new destruction, as Russian troops try to encircle the Ukrainian capital as part of their slow-moving offensive. Beneath a Kyiv apartment block damaged by a downed rocket, AFP journalists saw a distraught man crouched over a body draped in a bloodstained cloth, after the latest in a series of early-morning attacks.
President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the German parliament a day after a speech to the U.S. Congress, when he secured $1 billion in new U.S. military aid, including Stinger anti-aircraft missiles used against Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Zelensky reached back to that Cold War era as he drew on a 1987 speech in Berlin by U.S. president Ronald Reagan: "Dear Mr Scholz, tear down this Wall," he implored German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "It's not a Berlin Wall -- it is a Wall in central Europe between freedom and bondage and this Wall is growing bigger with every bomb."
In an overnight video message, Zelensky also urged Russians to lay down their arms, three weeks into an invasion that has drawn swinging Western sanctions against President Vladimir Putin's regime. "If your war, the war against the Ukrainian people, continues, Russia's mothers will lose more children than in the Afghan and Chechen wars combined," he said, referencing the thousands lost in those conflicts.
Putin lashes 'traitors'
U.S. President Joe Biden called Putin a "war criminal", triggering fury in the Kremlin, as the Russian leader also lashed out at "scum and traitors" at home who he said were undermining the war effort. Russia's defense ministry denied it had targeted the Drama Theatre in the besieged port city of Mariupol, where local officials say more than 2,000 people have died so far in indiscriminate Chechnya-style shelling. The ministry said the building had been mined and blown up by members of Ukraine's far-right Azov Battalion, a claim dismissed in the West as Russian disinformation.
Ukrainian officials said more than 1,000 civilians had been sheltering in the theatre. Human Rights Watch said it was at least 500. Zelensky said the "number of dead is not yet known" but the airborne attack showed "Russia has become a terrorist state."Ukrainian lawmaker Sergyi Taruta said rubble was being cleared and some survivors emerging from a bomb shelter beneath the theatre, without giving more detail, and officials said Russian shelling had continued. Satellite images of the theatre on March 14 shared by private satellite company Maxar showed the words "children" clearly etched out in the ground in Russian on either side of the building. Officials posted a photo of the building, its middle part completely destroyed and thick white smoke rising from the rubble."The only word to describe what has happened today is genocide, genocide of our nation, our Ukrainian people," Mariupol mayor Vadim Boychenko said.
'War crimes'
Addressing the Bundestag by video, Zelensky issued a strong rebuke of Germany's years-long reluctance to sever energy and business ties with Russia. "We turned to you," he said. "We told you that Nord Stream (gas pipelines) was a kind of preparation for the war. "And the answer we got was purely economic -- it is economy, economy, economy but that was the mortar for the new Wall."The broader economic consequences from the war could cut global growth by "over one percentage point" and drive up inflation in the next 12 months, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said. However, NATO members have resisted Zelensky's pleas for direct involvement through a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning it could lead to World War III against nuclear-armed Russia. Britain's diplomatic mission to the U.N. tweeted that Russia was committing "war crimes and targeting civilians" in Ukraine, after the UK and allies requested an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting. But the Kremlin rejected an order by the top U.N. court to halt its offensive. Putin, at a televised government meeting Wednesday, insisted the invasion was "developing successfully", adding, "We will not allow Ukraine to serve as a springboard for aggressive actions against Russia."He also condemned the Western sanctions as "economic blitzkrieg", after Russia was frozen out of much of the Western financial system.However, the Russian finance ministry said Thursday it had carried out interest payments worth $117.2 million on two foreign bonds, avoiding a default for now.
From rackets to rifles
The World Health Organization said healthcare facilities and personnel were being attacked in Ukraine at an unprecedented rate, and its health system was "teetering on the brink". More than three million Ukrainians have fled across the border, mostly women and children, according to the UN. Ukraine's prosecution service said 108 children had been killed in the war. With stop-start peace talks ongoing, officials in Kyiv said Russia had agreed to nine humanitarian corridors Thursday for fleeing refugees, including one out of Mariupol. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said a "compromise" outcome in the talks would center on Ukraine becoming a neutral state comparable to Sweden and Austria -- an idea roundly rejected by Kyiv. Ukraine wants an immediate ceasefire, Russia to withdraw and the West to guarantee its security -- proposals that are equally anathema to Moscow. "Our delegation is ready to work day and night," Peskov said Thursday. "Unfortunately we do not see the same zeal on the Ukrainian side."Many Ukrainians are zealous about defending their homeland. Retired tennis player Sergiy Stakhovsky, who knocked Roger Federer out of Wimbledon in 2013, has traded his racquet for a rifle and returned to Kyiv. His wife was distraught at the decision, Stakhovsky told AFP as he patrolled the city in khaki camouflage, toting a Kalashnikov. But, he said, "I knew I had to go there."

Cheap but Lethal Turkish Drones Bolster Ukraine’s Defenses
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
Despite three weeks of Russian bombardment, Ukraine has kept up a stiff defense of its cities by using Turkish-made drones to carry out pop-up attacks on the invaders with a lethal effectiveness that has surprised Western military experts. The Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles, which carry lightweight, laser-guided bombs, normally excel in low-tech conflicts, and Turkey has sold them to more than a dozen countries, including Azerbaijan, Libya, Morocco and Ethiopia. The drones have carried out unexpectedly successful attacks in the early stages of Ukraine’s conflict with Moscow, before the Russians were able to set up their air defenses in the battlefield, said Jack Watling of the London-based Royal United Services Institute, The Associated Press reported. “The (TB2s) shouldn’t be making a meaningful impact because they are medium altitude, slow-flying aircraft with a large electromagnetic signature and a large radar cross-section. And the Russians have very capable air defense systems, so they should be being shot down. The terrain is very open and gives good radar coverage,” Watling added. He said Ukrainian forces “have been essentially flying in at a low-level and then coming up and raiding with them. So striking targets of opportunity.” Over time, as the Russians get more organized and push out their air defenses, Watling said “the freedom to employ those drones is diminishing. And so what we are now seeing is that the Ukrainians are having to be careful as to when they commit them.”
In a briefing to Parliament on March 9, British Defense Minister Ben Wallace praised the drones, along with other weapons donated to Ukraine by the West. “One of the ways they are delivering close air support or actual fire in depth is through the Turkish TB2 UAVs, which are delivering munitions onto their artillery and indeed their supply lines, which are incredibly important in order to slow down or block the Russian advance,” Wallace said. The drones also have scored success on social media. Their aerial video of the destruction of Russian armored vehicles has become a key tool for Ukraine’s information war.
Vasyl Bodnar, Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey, shared videos of drone attacks on Twitter, including one that appeared to show a convoy of destroyed Russian military vehicles.
“Masallah” or “Praise be” he wrote in a caption on one of the videos.
A video using a song titled “Bayraktar” ‒ with sounds of explosions timed to coincide with the beats ‒ has been uploaded on YouTube and played on Ukrainian radio. “So as long as they still fly in, as long as they’re still armed, they will be useful. They will mostly be useful for the propaganda side,” said Aaron Stein, director of research at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute. “The videos have enraptured people because you can see an airstrike in high definition.” Turkey began selling the TB2 drones to Ukraine in 2019, and Kyiv used them in fighting Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region — a move that Moscow called “destabilizing.” Turkish officials have refused to disclose details of the drone sales to Ukraine, including how many were involved and whether Kyiv is being resupplied. Independent estimates put the number of TB2s in Ukraine at between 20 and 50. “I think Turkey’s actually in the front, but not at the center, at least not publicly, of this conflict,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington D.C. “Its official policy regarding the war is what I would call ‘pro-Ukraine neutrality.’ It acts neutral. It wants the war to end, but it is militarily helping Ukraine. ... It has been selling these killer drones to Ukraine that are apparently doing an amazing job.” The drones ‒ priced under $2 million each according to estimates ‒ are produced by the Baykar defense company, which belongs to the family of Selcuk Bayraktar, the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Bayraktar is Baykar’s chief technical officer. Such less-expensive drones are likely to have a lasting impact on warfare as a useful tool of attrition, as well as being able to draw in the attention of more expensive enemy jets, Stein said. “I’d call it the Toyota Corolla of drones. ... It doesn’t do everything that your high-end sports car does, but it does 80% of that, right?” he said. “So even for a high-end military, like the US, the basic concept of using in an attritable, cheap platform to strike a superior force has inherent value.”
An unspecified number of US-made drones will be among the additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine announced Wednesday by President Joe Biden. It also includes 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 100 grenade launchers, 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition, and grenade launchers and mortar rounds. The White House has been weighing giving Ukraine access to US-made Switchblade drones that can fly and strike Russian targets, according to a person familiar with the matter who was not authorized to speak publicly. It was not immediately clear if the new drones that Biden said would be delivered to Ukraine include those or others.

Israel to Start Direct Flights to Egypt's Sharm In April
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 March, 2022
Israel is to launch direct flights to Sharm el-Sheikh on Egypt's Red Sea coast next month, in an expansion of air links between the two countries, officials said Wednesday. "The route from Ben Gurion International Airport to Sharm el-Sheikh will open soon. Flights are expected to begin during the intermediate days of Passover next month," a statement from the Israeli prime minister’s office said, AFP reported. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said: "This agreement will bring Israel and Egypt closer together." The statement said the new air link had been discussed in September talks between Bennett and President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on the first visit to Egypt by an Israeli premier in a decade. It was finalized during a visit by a delegation from Israel's Shin Bet domestic security agency over the past few days. Bennett said Israel was "opening up to the countries of the region and the basis for this longstanding recognition is the peace between Israel and Egypt". Direct flights already link Cairo with Ben Gurion airport, near Tel Aviv. Until 2020, Egypt and Jordan were the only Arab governments to have normalized relations with Israel. That year, they were joined by Bahrain, Morocco and the United Arab Emirates, which all now operate direct flights to the Jewish state.

Canada imposes additional sanctions on Belarusian leadership
March 17, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that Canada is imposing new sanctions under the Special Economic Measures (Belarus) Regulations in response to the Lukashenko regime’s involvement in Vladimir Putin’s illegal and unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine.
These new measures impose restrictions on 22 senior officials of Belarus’s Department of Defence who supported the attack, notably by allowing their country to serve as a launch pad for the Russian invasion.
Today’s announcement sends a clear message to President Putin’s accomplices: those who support violations of Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence will be held accountable.
These new measures demonstrate Canada’s steadfast commitment to maintain pressure on Belarusian leadership to end its support for Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine. Canada will continue monitor the situation and will work in close collaboration with its international partners.
Quotes
“The world is horrified to witness the senseless violence occurring in Ukraine. Just as Canada is imposing severe sanctions on the Russian regime, Belarusian leadership must also be held accountable for enabling and supporting Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked attacks. Canada implores Alexander Lukashenko to end his support for the Russian invasion. We will not hesitate to take further action. The world is watching.”
Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
Since Russia’s illegal occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea in 2014, Canada has sanctioned more than 900 individuals and entities, with many of those sanctions undertaken in coordination with our allies and partners. Canada’s sanctions will impose asset freezes and prohibitions on listed persons.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Canada has sanctioned more than 500 individuals and entities from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.

Statement by Minister of Foreign Affairs on Ministerial Conference of La Francophonie
March 17, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement at the conclusion of the 40th extraordinary session of the Ministerial Conference of La Francophonie, which took place in Paris on March 16, 2022:
“Canada, represented by Isabelle Hudon, personal representative of the Prime Minister of Canada for La Francophonie, actively participated in the conference to promote the Canadian vision of a diverse and inclusive Francophonie, centred on the protection and promotion of the French language as well as the defence of peace, democracy and human rights.
“This extraordinary session was particularly important as the world is experiencing a crisis. The invasion of Ukraine, an observer member of La Francophonie, by the armed forces of President Putin, goes against the values of peace and solidarity that are the foundation of La Francophonie. These values, to which its members adhere, are enshrined in the Charter La Francophonie and are at the heart of its actions.
“Canada commends the members of the Organisation internationale de la Francophonie for speaking out against the military aggression ordered by President Putin against Ukraine. The resolution adopted yesterday by consensus condemns in the strongest terms the invasion, which constitutes an attack on international law and on the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, and which also affects other member countries of La Francophonie.
“This resolution signals that President Putin’s attack on Ukraine is also a direct violation of the Charter of the United Nations, according to which all of its members must refrain ‘from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state’. Members of La Francophonie are also calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, the withdrawal by Russia of its military forces, and call for a peaceful and speedy settlement of the ongoing conflict.
“In recent weeks, Canada has advocated for a resolution that unequivocally condemns President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and its devastating impact on civilian populations, including women and children.
“As the second-largest international organization, La Francophonie has a strong voice on the world stage and can contribute to ongoing diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the current crisis.
“Together with its allies and partners, Canada will continue to act decisively in support of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine and, by extension, promoting the principles of peace, democracy and human rights that are cherished by La Francophonie.”

Muslim Brotherhood Scholar Dr. Yasser Al-Naggar: Muslims Are Allowed To Join Either Side Of The Russia-Ukraine War, In Order To Pit Them Against One Another; They Will Be Rewarded For Killing Infidels, Or Be Killed And Become Martyrs
MEMRI 17/2022
Source: Mekameleen TV (Egypt Muslim Brotherhood from Turkey)
Turkey-based Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood scholar Dr. Yasser Al-Naggar discussed in a March 11, 2022 show that aired on Mekameleen TV (Turkey-based Egyptian MB) the perspective of Islamic law on Muslims joining the war between Ukraine and Russia in order to pit both sides against one another and kill infidels on both sides. He said that according to the opinion of Imam Ibn Hazm, it is a "good thing" for Muslims to join a war between infidels in order to make them fight against one another, because it brings destruction upon them. Dr. Al-Naggar also said that another scholar, Imam Ibn Hajar Al-Haytami, said that it is permitted for Muslims to join such a war in order to be rewarded for killing infidels or for dying as a martyr. He explained that Muslims can join one of the sides on the condition that they "elevate the word of Allah and inflict losses upon the infidels."
Yasser Al-Naggar: "Now in Russia and Ukraine, they are receiving help from Muslims in their fight against non-Muslims. Is this allow or not in the Islamic shari'a? A group of Islamic scholars say that if a Muslim joins non-Muslims in fighting other non-Muslims, and he can pit them against one another during the war more forcefully, to bring destruction upon them or whatever - this is allowed.
"This was the approach of Imam Ibn Hazm. He said: Both sides are combatant infidels. There are different types of infidels. We are talking about infidels who fight the Muslims. Now they are busy fighting one another. So if a Muslim can join the fray, and make them fight one another - is that allowed? A group of Islamic scholars, like Imam Ibn Hazm, say that if a Muslim can do this, then it is a good thing.
"[Imam Ibn Hajar Al-Haytami] was asked: Two groups of infidels are fighting one another. The first question is: Are we allowed to sit and watch them fight one another?
"The [second question] is whether we are allowed to join one of the two sides and fight the other side, or is this not allowed? This is the question that we are facing now.
"It should be taken into account that I am joining the fight with the intention of killing an infidel and being rewarded for that, or to be killed by an infidel and become a martyr. I have two options: To kill or to be killed. Is this intention of mine acceptable or not?"
Interviewer: "What did the imam say?"
Al-Naggar: "Imam Ibn Hajar said that there is no problem with just watching from the sidelines."
Interviewer: "So there is no problem with watching them fight one another."
Al-Naggar: "Right. Right. As for joining one of the two sides, he said that Muslims are allowed to fight against either side. And that they are allowed to support one side in its fight against the other, on the condition that you elevate the word of Allah, and inflict losses upon the infidels."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 17-18/2022
The fall of the Golden Arch Theory
Clifford D. May/The Washington Times/March 17/2022
Enriching tyrants doesn’t prevent wars after all
McDonald’s is closing its restaurants in Russia. Which means no more Happy Meals in Gorky Park. But there’s also a McNugget of geostrategic significance in this development.
Toward the end of the 20th century, Thomas Friedman, Pulitzer Prize-winning New York Times columnist, observed: “No two countries that both have a McDonald’s have ever fought a war against each other.”
He considered that a revelation, the basis for his “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention.” Boiled down: Economic integration and globalization pave the path to peace.
He may have been correct in asserting that “when a country reaches a certain level of economic development” most of its people “don’t like to fight wars.” What he failed to appreciate is that if those countries are unfree, undemocratic, and ruled by tyrants, most of its people don’t matter.
Vladimir Putin could have said to Ukrainians: “We’re one people! Let’s reunite! Think of all we can achieve together!” Instead, starting on Feb. 24, he has been raping Ukraine.
“Like it or not, it’s your duty, my beauty,” he recently – and crudely – instructed Ukrainians. Their duty being to submit to him. President Volodymyr Zelensky acidly responded: “We are not his.”
Of course, Ukrainians have been rebuffing Mr. Putin’s advances for years. I was an election observer in Ukraine for the International Republican Institute in 2019. Despite Russian meddling, the pro-Russian party received just 13.5 percent of the ballots.
Many Russians are disgusted and outraged by Mr. Putin’s slaughter of their neighbors. They can and do protest. He can and does arrest or kill them. The same is true of the despotic rulers of China and Iran with whom Mr. Putin is aligned.
Returning to the Golden Arches Theory: It was not entirely original. In 1910, Norman Angell, a journalist, member of the British Parliament, and winner of a Nobel Peace Prize (in 1933) published “The Great Illusion,” a highly popular book making the case that in an economically interdependent world, wars will become counterproductive, rendering militarism obsolete.
Among the flaws in this theory: Strongmen may be Material Girls when it comes to their personal finances but not when it comes to those of their subjects. Mr. Putin, who became a multi-billionaire through means not much different from those employed by John Gotti, does not regard putting a chicken in every pot – or a Big Mac on every table – as a worthy goal.
The same can be said for Tehran’s obscenely rich theocrats. They follow the line of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who said that the Islamic Revolution “is not about the price of watermelons.”
Not understanding that, President Obama cut a dollars-for-promises deal with them. Not understanding that, President Biden continues to attempt to conclude a weaker version of that deal, ignoring Iranian death threats against Americans and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps missiles exploding near the American consulate in Kurdistan.
As for China’s Communist rulers, there was a time when it did appear that they were prioritizing national economic advancement and therefore might be willing to become good stakeholders in a global economic system benefitting all participants. It was on that basis that, in 2001, President Clinton pushed Congress to approve the U.S.-China trade agreement and China’s accession to the World Trade Organization.
But the experiment failed – spectacularly. Beijing has for years been stealing American intellectual property, building its nuclear and conventional forces for offensive purposes, and subverting international institutions, the World Trade Organization, the World Health Organization, and the U.N. Human Rights Council among them.
Millions of American workers have lost their jobs as too many American corporations have found it convenient to take advantage of Beijing’s forced laborers, including in Xinjiang where, according to the U.S. government, a Turkic Muslim people faces genocide.
We don’t know whether Mr. Putin, using siege and scorched-earth tactics, will succeed in subjugating Ukrainians, depriving them of the right to cast ballots to decide who leads them, and preventing them from choosing their foreign affiliations.
What is certain is that the imperialist war he is waging will leave Ukrainians impoverished. Russians will suffer, too. That should not suggest there isn’t a constituency for Mr. Putin’s grander goals which, as Georgetown University’s Angela Stent noted, include “reversing the consequences of the Soviet collapse, splitting the transatlantic alliance, and renegotiating the geographic settlement that ended the Cold War.”
The West’s first order of business – for reasons both moral and strategic – is to do all we can to help Ukrainians exercise their right to self-defense. But it’s not too soon to start thinking about the mistakes we have made, the lessons we should learn, and the policies we need to change. Three examples:
Europeans need to break their addiction to Russian energy, and Americans can and should be an energy superpower. That will require a cease-fire in the war on oil and gas, especially if the alternative is begging thugs such as Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro to take our money in exchange for their fossil fuels.
The U.S. and its allies need to upgrade military capabilities. “Peace through strength” requires convincing adversaries they’d be fools to provoke us. But achieving deterrence – as opposed to talking about it – is neither easy nor cheap.
We need to secure strategic supply chains, pursue freer trade with friends, and begin to disentangle economically from regimes that are hostile to us, our values, and our interests.
McDonald’s and other corporations entered Russia knowing Mr. Putin was a tyrant. They thought their presence there would be salutary. They were wrong. Shouldn’t this recognition have implications for our relations with the tyrannical regimes that rule China and Iran?
*Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a columnist for the Washington Times. Follow him on Twitter @CliffordDMay. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

كاثرين باور وباتريك كلاوسون/معهد واشنطن : كم ستكسب إيران مالياً من العودة إلى الإتفاق النووي؟
How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?
Katherine Bauer and Patrick Clawson/The Washington Insitute/March 17/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/107105/katherine-bauer-and-patrick-clawson-the-washington-insitute-how-much-would-iran-gain-financially-from-returning-to-the-jcpoa-%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%ab%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%86-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%88%d8%b1-%d9%88/
A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.
With negotiations to reactivate the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) wavering between collapse and fruition in recent days, it is worth assessing what the outcome could mean for Iran financially. For the purposes of this analysis, the assumption is that a renewed deal will allow for full resumption of sanctions relief similar to what was implemented in early 2016, with Trump-era counterterrorism sanctions on key economic actors either lifted, suspended, or waived under licenses. Under these circumstances, Iran would gain some ability to tap “frozen” assets, access the international financial system, sell oil, and use the resultant revenue. The key question is how much?
“Frozen” Assets
Regarding the large sums of Iranian reserves that are currently inaccessible for various reasons, the regime would not necessarily be able to use them in their entirety. The amounts involved are staggering. In its latest regional economic outlook, the IMF noted that Iran’s usable reserves are $12.2 billion compared to reported reserves of $115.4 billion. A footnote explained that the IMF defines reserves as assets that are “readily available and controlled by monetary authorities” for balance of payment purposes.
A revived nuclear deal would unlock only some of those funds. First, some of Iran’s foreign exchange reserves are apparently illiquid on their own terms, not “frozen” by sanctions. Before the JCPOA, when these foreign reserves were estimated to be over $100 billion, Iranian Central Bank officials stated that a nuclear deal would make only $29 billion accessible. According to them, most of the remainder was either (1) money held in Chinese banks as project finance collateral for Chinese trade and investment activities in Iran ($22 billion), (2) illiquid Central Bank investment in the National Iranian Oil Company’s Swiss subsidiary Naftiran Intertrade Company ($25 billion), or (3) Central Bank assets held in Iranian banks ($10 billion). When the Trump administration left the JCPOA and reapplied various U.S. sanctions in 2018, Iranian media reported that roughly $40 billion in assets were blocked, close to the sum total of funds reportedly held up in China ($20 billion), South Korea ($7 billion), India ($7 billion), Iraq ($6 billion), Japan ($3 billion), and Europe ($3-5 billion). Current balances may even be lower—for example, Iran reportedly drew down funds in India against imports of rice, sugar, and tea, invoking a sanctions exemption for trade in agricultural commodities.
Second is the issue of convertibility. Most of the assets blocked due to sanctions are likely denominated in local currencies. When the United States permitted certain countries to buy Iranian oil, it required them to deposit Tehran’s revenue from the sales into escrow accounts in local currency that could only be used to finance bilateral trade. In subsequent years, the oil that Iran exported was worth more than its imports from these countries, so significant balances accrued in the escrow accounts. Yet during the period of JCPOA-related sanctions relief, when countries were free to release those balances, Iran struggled to move the funds. Most international markets for converting funds use U.S. dollars at least as an intermediary step, which U.S. regulations prohibited in this case. Avoiding the dollar required difficult workarounds, typically by making only small transactions.
Access to the International Financial System
To fully access unfrozen assets or oil revenue, Iran would need to reestablish the banking ties and other financial plumbing that enable countries to readily move such funds. Yet Tehran struggled to do so after the JCPOA was first implemented, despite U.S. efforts to provide clarity on sanctions and facilitate the reestablishment of banking relationships. Many banks were wary of the remaining non-nuclear sanctions, and the environment may be similar under a renewed deal—even if Washington lifts the Trump administration’s non-nuclear sanctions (e.g., designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization), banks may be unwilling to navigate ongoing sanctions related to terrorism, human rights, and missile issues. Similarly, the IRGC could remain designated under other sanctions authorities even if the FTO label is removed.
Financial institutions and other commercial partners have also been wary of many Iranian risks beyond sanctions, such as the government’s lack of transparency, its failure to bring the financial sector in line with international regulatory standards, and its longstanding reliance on deceptive practices to conduct licit and illicit financial activity. Such problems have spurred numerous stern warnings from the Financial Action Task Force over the years. Iran has also been lax with regard to the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act and similar laws from other countries, which make foreign banks liable if Iran’s hundreds of thousands of dual nationals do not pay their foreign tax bills. Moreover, international banks face increasing restrictions on dealings with financial institutions that are as undercapitalized and opaque as nearly all Iranian banks—an approach that aligns with the wider de-risking trend embraced by many Western firms in recent years.
Any company deciding whether to incur the substantial costs of figuring out how to do business with Iran will also have to weigh the possibility of a Republican president returning to the White House in 2025, which could result in the reimposition of far-reaching financial sanctions. And in the unlikely event that Iran is granted access to the U.S. financial system, one must keep in mind that victims have won billions of dollars in judgments against Tehran for its material support of terrorism, so their lawyers would no doubt go after any money that moves through U.S. banks.
Selling Oil and Using the Revenue
Iran has already experienced considerable growth in its oil exports over the past year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated its 2020 exports (including condensates) at 0.4 million barrels per day, while a February 22 Reuters report cited estimates of 1.0-1.2 million b/d for December 2021. Most of these exports are reportedly going to China.
At least as important for Iran, its traders appear to have figured out more ways to access the revenue from these sales, including oil-for-goods transactions facilitated by the Central Bank’s single-window system—essentially a bartering arrangement. Thanks to tight conditions in world oil markets, access to this revenue seems likely to improve further this year no matter what happens with the JCPOA. Traders eager to acquire oil are more likely to pay a good price and work around Iran’s problems with accessing funds.
In the event the JCPOA talks succeed, Iran would be well positioned to nearly double its oil export volume, and quickly. As of February, Kpler estimated that it had 87 million barrels stored at sea, while FGE gauged its land storage at 85 million barrels, including 25 million in China (though other estimates were lower). These stocks would enable Iran to increase exports within weeks of a deal. And in the ensuing months, it would likely be able to expand even faster than in 2016, when output rose by 300,000 b/d within about three months and a further 700,000 b/d within a year or less. S&P Global predicts that exports would rise by 1.5 million b/d within nine months of a deal, though that is at the high end of estimates. Given this combination of higher volumes and much higher effective prices (due to lower discounts and higher world market prices), Iran would be set to triple its daily oil income compared to 2021 levels, which were already well above 2020 levels.
Conclusion
Despite Tehran’s disappointment about the limited economic gains it reaped directly from the JCPOA, it stuck to the deal until after the 2018 U.S. withdrawal (though it has since violated many JCPOA provisions). This precedent suggests that even limited economic benefits may be sufficient to keep a renewed deal together—or, alternatively, that Iran perceives benefits beyond the economic impact.
No matter what happens with the JCPOA, Iran’s economy is poised for solid, if not spectacular, growth in the coming months. Before the recent changes in world oil conditions, the IMF forecasted its GDP growth for 2022 at 2%. Combined with an average of 3% growth over the previous two years, this would put Tehran at 95% of where it was before the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” induced a recession in 2018-19, shrinking the Iranian economy 12.4%. This year’s growth estimate would presumably increase with higher oil income—though any sustained growth beyond 3% would likely be constrained without access to global markets. Either way, President Ebrahim Raisi looks well poised to preside over faster real GDP growth during his current term (2021-24) than the annual average of 1.2% seen under his predecessor. Former president Hassan Rouhani’s tenure (2013-21) started and ended with sharp sanctions-induced recessions, largely offsetting the 13.8% growth spurt that occurred in the Iranian year 2016/17 after the JCPOA came into effect.
In light of this data, it seems unlikely that Iran’s hardliners will attribute the coming growth to a renewed nuclear deal—and it may be difficult to persuade Iranian citizens that the hardliners are wrong. Moreover, the difficulties the public has experienced with making purchases from abroad and paying higher prices for limited foreign goods are unlikely to change much as long as the country’s access to the international financial system remains restricted. Rouhani gained domestic political traction in 2015 by arguing that Iran’s central problem was the hardliners’ nuclear stance, which brought sanctions that left the country poor. Iranians who want better relations with the West can still be heard today, but they will now find it more difficult to present the JCPOA as evidence that cooperation reaps more economic benefits than confrontation.
*Katherine Bauer is the Blumenstein-Katz Family Fellow at The Washington Institute and a former Treasury Department official.
*Patrick Clawson is the Institute’s Morningstar Senior Fellow and director of research.

كون كوكلان/معهد كايتستون: لا اتفاق نووي مع إيراني افضل من اتفاق سيء معها
No Deal with Iran is Better Than A Bad Deal
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/March 17/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/107101/107101/
Having conspicuously failed in its efforts to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration looks set to add to its global reputation for weakness by agreeing yet another flawed nuclear deal with Iran.
Russia has been fully involved in the latest talks to revive the deal, as the negotiator for the US. Western negotiators have claimed that Moscow was effectively supporting Iran to withstand pressure from the US to make concessions.
If true, the fact that Russia has assurances from Washington that sanctions will not affect its dealings with Iran is further evidence of the Biden administration’s desperation to reach a new agreement with Tehran….
[I]ntelligence experts believe Iran’s space programme [Iran just launched its second satellite into space] is being used to develop missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
“Iran’s nuclear programme has never before been this advanced, and is exposing the international community to unprecedented levels of risk.” — Corinne Kitsell, UK Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, March 8, 2022.
The problem for Mr Biden is that, by failing to address the very real threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he will simply be presiding over a further erosion in America’s standing as a global power.
Having conspicuously failed in its efforts to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration looks set to add to its global reputation for weakness by agreeing yet another flawed nuclear deal with Iran. Pictured: Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, speaks to the media at the Palais Coburg, venue of the nuclear negotiations, in Vienna on December 27, 2021. (Photo by Alex Halada/AFP via Getty Images)
Having conspicuously failed in its efforts to prevent Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration looks set to add to its global reputation for weakness by agreeing yet another flawed nuclear deal with Iran.
Negotiations in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal to limit Iran’s attempts to acquire nuclear weapons, are said to be reaching a conclusion, with the possibility that a new agreement could be announced in the coming weeks.
Indeed, with both Iranian and Western officials indicating that a deal is close to being agreed, the only remaining stumbling block appears to be last-minute demands by Russia for Moscow to be granted sanctions relief on its future trade dealings with Tehran.
As one of the signatories to the original JCPOA agreement negotiated by the Obama administration, Russia has been fully involved in the latest talks to revive the deal, as the negotiator for the US. Western negotiators have claimed that Moscow was effectively supporting Iran to withstand pressure from the US to make concessions.
Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, however, has complicated matters: the West has responded by imposing hard-hitting sanctions against Moscow — sanctions, moreover, that would apply to any future trading arrangements Russia might have with Tehran in the event a new nuclear deal was agreed, and sanctions against Iran lifted.
Initially, Washington said it had no intention of offering Russia sanctions relief. But Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking during a visit to Tehran this week, insisted that Moscow had received written guarantees from Washington that Western sanctions on Russia over Ukraine. The remark suggests Russia can continue trading with Iran in spite of US sanctions.
“We received written guarantees,” said Mr Lavrov. “They are included in the text of the agreement itself on the resumption of the JCPOA on the Iranian nuclear programme.”
If true, the fact that Russia has assurances from Washington that sanctions will not affect its dealings with Iran is further evidence of the Biden administration’s desperation to reach a new agreement with Tehran, even if it means making unpalatable concessions on Iran’s nuclear activities.
The latest assessments regarding the progress Iran has made on its uranium enrichment programme — a vital process in the development of nuclear weapons — certainly makes for grim reading. After Iran abandoned its JCPOA commitments to limit uranium enrichment in late 2020, the regime is now estimated to have sufficient quantities of enriched uranium for four nuclear warheads.
In addition, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps demonstrated the increasing sophistication of its ballistic missile capabilities by launching its second satellite into space earlier this month. The US insists the satellite launches are in breach of a UN Security Council resolution, while intelligence experts believe Iran’s space programme is being used to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Iran’s mounting stockpile of enriched uranium, together with the enhanced sophistication of its missile development, are certainly becoming causes of deep concern for Western officials taking part in the Vienna talks; they just seem not to know what to do about them.
As Corinne Kitsell, the UK’s Permanent Representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, remarked earlier this month:
“Iran has continued to advance its nuclear programme by developing its stockpile of enriched uranium and conducting activities that provide permanent and irreversible knowledge gains. Iran’s nuclear programme has never before been this advanced, and is exposing the international community to unprecedented levels of risk.”
Even so, all the indications suggest that the Biden administration is unlikely to hold Tehran to account for its flagrant disregard for the JCPOA, and will instead press ahead with securing a new deal regardless.
This is because, with global energy prices rocketing as a result of the Ukraine crisis, Washington’s main priority now is to lift sanctions against Iran so that the regime can start producing oil, to increase global production and bring down the price of gasoline and heating oil in the US before upcoming mid-term elections on November 8.
The problem for Mr Biden is that, by failing to address the very real threat posed by Iran’s nuclear ambitions, he will simply be presiding over a further erosion in America’s standing as a global power.
Mr Biden’s unwillingness to face the reality of Iran’s nuclear ambitions has already created tensions with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two oil-producing Gulf states that previously enjoyed close ties with Washington. Their unhappiness at the Biden administration’s conduct was reflected in the recent refusal of the leaders of both countries to take calls from Mr Biden to discuss the global energy crunch.
The White House should understand that the refusal of these two former American allies even to talk to Mr Biden on such a vital issue as global energy supplies is a direct consequence of its flawed approach to the Iran deal, one that, if it goes ahead in its current form, will be just another nail in the coffin of Mr Biden’s presidency.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Team Biden Runs the Syria Playbook on Ukraine
Tony Badra/The Tablet/March 18/2022
The administration’s horror over Putin’s war is not merely performative, but functional—in the service of realigning with Iran
he Biden administration has spent the last two weeks publicly censuring and sanctioning Russia over its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Yet even as it engaged in evermore shrill public denunciations of the undoubted evils of Vladimir Putin, it was simultaneously working hand-in-glove with the Russian dictator to finalize a new agreement with Iran over its nuclear program. So how do we make sense of the administration’s public campaign to isolate Putin at the same time as it partners with the vilest man on the planet to cut a deal with a Russian client state? The key to understanding this seemingly erratic set of zigs and zags is the recognition that Team Biden is following the template that former President Barack Obama created in Syria a decade ago. Let’s call it the “Syria playbook.”
To understand the Syria playbook, and its connection to Ukraine, we need to look back to Obama’s second term, and its all-consuming policy priority, the Iran deal—which remains no less urgent in 2022 than it was in 2013. Back then, Syria itself did not matter much to Obama, who mused about how one might weigh deaths in that country against deaths in the Congo—implying that if the latter was not a pressing U.S. national interest, neither was the former. Rather, Syria’s significance for Obama lay only in the risk that images of hundreds of thousands of people being tortured and murdered might interfere with his defining foreign policy initiative: reaching a deal that would realign the United States away from Israel and Saudi Arabia and toward Iran, his new choice for regional hegemon.
Meanwhile, Syria did matter greatly to Iran, Obama’s sought-after ally. Along with Ukraine, Syria also mattered very much to Russia, then as now a key partner in the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Syria mattered to Russia because it mattered to Iran; because the Russians saw the Assad family as a historical ally; and because Putin looked forward to restoring, enlarging, and entrenching the Soviet-era naval presence that would allow Russia to project power in the eastern Mediterranean.
It was in Syria that the Obama-Biden team honed the cynical duplicity we’re witnessing today. At the heart of Obama’s maneuvering in and around Syria was the practice of strategic messaging, which allowed Obama to hold both ends of the stick while speaking out of both sides of his mouth—or rather, letting cynical or clueless members of his administration strike seemingly contradictory poses, each of which allowed him to advance toward his goal. He could be simultaneously moralizing and a cold realist—whatever it took not to be distracted from his main objective of a deal with Iran. Achieving that goal in turn meant cooperation with Russia, a principal backer of the Assad regime.
The Obama administration alumni now in charge of the Biden administration currently pose as staunch defenders of NATO and the trans-Atlantic alliance against Russia’s barbaric aggression in Ukraine. But in 2012 and 2013, it was NATO’s other members who pressed Obama to join, and lead, the European and regional states opposed to Assad’s butchery in Syria. Instead, Obama fended them off by turning to Russia, and using its veto power-by-proxy at the United Nations and other international forums in which the administration claimed to place stock. Anyone who wants something in Syria, the Obama administration told U.S. allies, should go talk to Putin.
The Realignment
In the Middle East, Biden is finishing what Obama started. And his top advisers are all on board.
In August 2012, Obama made the blunder that he has since repeatedly said he regrets most of all out of every decision he made as president, when he boxed himself in by laying down a red line against Assad’s use of chemical weapons—a line Assad would cross repeatedly, all the way to a major chemical attack in August of 2013. Again, Obama turned to Russia to bail him out of a commitment he had no intention of keeping, as the rest of his presidency demonstrated quite clearly. At the time, Obama was on the verge of clinching the interim agreement with Iran, known as the Joint Plan of Action, which was signed in November 2013. There was no chance he would jeopardize that breakthrough by targeting Iran’s client in Damascus. He had now signaled that, for all the moralizing rhetorical barrages against Russia’s support for the brutal Assad, Putin remained his principal partner in the Syrian arena.
That Putin fully understood Russia’s importance in Obama’s Iran calculus could be seen by the fact that the Russian dictator immediately pressed his advantage by seeking compensation in Ukraine. In early 2014, he took the first small bite of the sovereign nation, invading and annexing Crimea. The United States’ reaction was rich in rhetorical condemnation and otherwise pointedly feeble. Aside from a profound historical critique from then-Secretary of State John Kerry about how “You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion,” which must have sounded like a compliment in Moscow, the administration leveled some sanctions against individual Russians, froze the assets of a handful of Russian government officials in the United States, and canceled their visas—in other words, the kind of response that makes for palatable headlines, but has precisely zero effect on the calculations of Vladimir Putin.
Putin would continue ingesting additional amuse-bouches extracted from eastern Ukraine in return for his services in Syria well into 2015. But the main dish would be served to him later that year. As Obama drew closer to finalizing his deal with Iran, he was faced with a problem: His prospective Iranian ally and future candidate for Middle Eastern hegemony simply couldn’t get things under control in Syria. Assad and the Iranians were being bled badly, and were in danger of actually losing the war.
But first things first: In June 2015, Obama officially got his deal with Iran. Now it was time to protect what Obama called Iran’s “equity” in Syria. The following month, the commander of the Iranian forces, the late Qassem Soleimani, went to Moscow for help. At some point in 2015, an Assad go-between and Obama’s regional point man, Robert Malley (who is currently in charge of the Biden administration’s talks with Iran in Vienna), informed the White House that the Russians were preparing to intervene directly in Syria. And in September 2015, shortly after the Iran deal was done, the Russian military went into Syria.
Putin was now the protector of the equity Obama promised the Iranians. Moreover, in addition to safeguarding its base on the Black Sea, Russia was gifted with a long-sought strategic asset: a base on the Mediterranean, directly on NATO’s southern flank, and on the border with Israel.
Team Obama sought to cover its acquiescence to—indeed, its satisfaction with—Russia’s intervention by initially presenting it as a stupid decision on Putin’s part, which Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted would result in a quagmire for Russia. But that was just more “strategic messaging.” In no time, the Obama administration was coordinating with the Russians as they bombed opposition-held areas to dust in order to help Assad crush his enemies and win his war. Simultaneously, in one of the more grotesque examples of the Syria playbook, Samantha Power performed arabesques of moral outrage at the U.N., “shaming” the Russians for doing exactly what Obama had contracted with them to do, in support of the Iran deal.
Obama’s realignment policy took a hit in the Trump years, during which the United States withdrew from the Iran deal and facilitated the transition of the much-admired Soleimani back to the spirit world. But once Team Obama was back in power in the form of the Biden administration, Iran was back at the front of the line. Not coincidentally, so was Ukraine—the currency in which Iran’s Russian protector liked to be paid.
The Biden administration came into office with immediate gifts to both Iran and Russia. It removed sanctions on Iranian clients and stopped enforcing sanctions on Iranian oil exports. It also waived sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany. Putin’s dependence on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was Kyiv’s insurance policy against a further invasion. Russia needed that infrastructure to move gas to Europe, and Moscow couldn’t risk it being damaged or sabotaged. The purpose of Nord Stream 2 was to give Russia an alternative route, one that kept the same amount of gas flowing to Europe but eliminated its dependence on Ukraine. Once the pipeline was physically completed, Putin concluded that it was a fait accompli that the Europeans would eventually activate it, now that Biden had given it the green light.
As the talks with Iran entered their final stage, Putin began his preparations to move on Ukraine. No more amuse-bouches. Now it was time to Syrianize Ukraine—to consume it whole, as Russia’s main course at the Iran deal banquet.
Underneath all the anti-Putin rhetoric, and even the slew of sanctions that followed the Russian dictator’s invasion (which have increased only somewhat in severity as the fighting has dragged on), the posture of the Biden administration toward the Russian military operation has remained more or less the same—sanctions, sure, but nothing that puts friendly countries in an awkward spot, let alone starts World War III by giving the Ukrainians too many weapons, a policy that recalls Obama’s posture toward Moscow in Syria.
Putin is a thug, yes. But it takes a thug to ruthlessly pound ISIS and keep the Israeli Air Force grounded.
Looking back at the Syria playbook tells us that the denunciations of and half-measures to combat Putin’s aggression, combined with the solicitation of Russian aid and guarantees for Iran, is par for the course for the Obama-Biden realignment dance. And once the cynical two-step of this dance is seen for what it is, the moves are easy to spot. Even as the administration was slapping sanctions on Russia, it was simultaneously setting up a sanctions evasion haven for Putin in Iran, as it prepared to lift sanctions on Russia’s Iranian client.
How does that work? The Russians are the guarantors of the Iran deal. Moscow would receive Iran’s excess enriched uranium and exchange it for natural uranium. Per the deal, it would also be involved in nuclear and scientific cooperation projects with the Iranians. Naturally, the administration said it was “weighing” sanctions on Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear power supplier and uranium producer. Only it knows it won’t sanction Rosatom, because the Iran deal is more important. “We would of course not sanction Russian participation in nuclear projects that are part of resuming full implementation of the JCPOA,” a State Department official soon clarified. Rosatom reportedly has a $10 billion contract to expand Tehran’s Bushehr nuclear plant.
This is to say nothing about the prospects of selling arms to the Iranians once the Biden administration decides to revoke, or just not enforce, a Trump-era executive order that blocked arms sales to Tehran. Obama’s 2015 deal allowed arms sales after October 2020, and locked it into a Security Council resolution. The Trump administration invoked a snapback mechanism to reverse the U.N. resolution, and locked that in with the executive order. As part of what it calls a “rapid return to mutual compliance” with the deal, the Biden administration will want to permit such sales as quickly as possible. As Iran’s main arms supplier, the Russians will be allowed—even required—to sell arms to Iran, in order to fulfill the terms of the deal. And so it goes.
Moscow, already familiar with the Syria playbook and no doubt fed up with having to play the administration’s sanctions games while its soldiers are dying in Ukraine, decided to make a point of exposing the administration’s double-game publicly for all to see. At the 11th hour, as the Biden team got ready to announce the conclusion of the deal with Iran, the Russians threw a wrench in the works. They demanded the United States announce written guarantees that its sanctions on Russia will not impede “our right to free and full trade, economic and investment cooperation and military-technical cooperation with the Islamic Republic.” In a line that deserves a place in the annals of Soviet humor, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov added, “We need guarantees that these sanctions won’t affect the regime of trade-economic and investment ties embedded in the [nuclear deal].”
Ridiculous, right? But it only took a few days before the Russians declared they were satisfied with the written guarantees they received from the Biden administration. That is to say, they’ve made their point, and everyone understood it.
As was the case in Syria, all the moral outrage about the horrors of Russia bombing civilian neighborhoods is just the lead in to the Iran deal. The American horror at Putin’s aggression, in other words, is not merely performative, but functional—all the more so after the instrumentalization of Vladimir Putin in domestic American politics since 2016.
For the Biden administration, unlike for Obama, there are necessarily two Putins. There’s Vladimir Putin, the realist head of state. He’s a stone-cold killer, to be sure, but he gets the job done in rough spots like Syria, where he helped keep America out of another Middle Eastern war while holding in check the U.S. allies and their domestic neocon lobbyists who wanted to drag us into that conflict and spoil the Iran deal. He’s a thug, yes. But it takes a thug to ruthlessly pound Islamist terrorists like ISIS and keep the Israeli Air Force grounded.
Then there’s “Putin,” the devious monster who hacked our elections to install a puppet in the White House in an all-out assault on American democracy that even some Republicans deplore. Clearly, no compromise is possible with that kind of hell spawn. But if Putin was instrumental in neutralizing pesky U.S. allies of old with his entry into Syria while Obama conducted the real business with Iran, “Putin” is equally useful toward the same end: browbeating U.S. allies put in danger by the Iran realignment into keeping their mouths shut while the 2.0 deal is sealed.
Sure enough, the administration has weaponized moral outrage over “Putin” in a messaging campaign against the Gulf Arab states and Israel. How can these countries be real U.S. allies when they don’t denounce “Putin”? While it’s perhaps unsurprising that the Gulf Arab states side with the authoritarian “Putin,” underscoring their incompatibility with American values, how can Israel call itself a democracy while it enables “Putin”? Like “the Palestinians” and “settlements,” “Putin” is a cudgel masquerading as a principled American stand on values that is meant to keep a downgraded Israel preoccupied and on the defensive as the administration gives nuclear weapons capacity to its enemy. If, with its faux outrage over “Putin,” the Obama-Biden crew manages to trip the Israelis into crossing a line with the actual Vladimir Putin, whom Obama helped install on Israel’s northern border, thereby complicating Israel’s ability to operate against Iran, then all the better.
That is to say, the administration’s moral outrage really isn’t about Ukraine at all. It’s another tool in the service of its deal with Iran. Which is the common thread between the timing of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, and the U.S. reaction to it. It’s all pegged to the realignment. That’s the lesson of the Syria playbook.
*Tony Badran is Tablet magazine’s Levant analyst and a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He tweets @AcrossTheBay.

Russia Can Be Made to Pay for Ukraine Damage Now
Robert Litan/Bloomberg/March 17/2022
Billions of people around the world are watching helplessly as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerates into its third week, continuing to kill more innocent people every day, while destroying infrastructure throughout the country and forcing millions of refugees into neighboring European countries.
There is one positive step that the US and like-minded countries should begin developing immediately to ensure that Russia at least is held responsible for the cost of humanitarian assistance, reparations and eventual reconstruction: Tap Russian foreign exchange reserves that are held in central banks outside the country and that have been frozen by their governments.
According to the most recent data supplied by Russia’s central bank, as of June 30, 2021, Russia's foreign currency reserves totaled $585 billion, though not all of this would be accessible to pay for damages. That’s because Russia holds a good portion of the total in gold at home (22%), a substantial amount of renminbi in China (14%), and some in international institutions (5%). Subtracting these amounts leaves about $350 billion in “available reserves” for distribution — mostly held by France (12%), Germany (10%), Japan (10%) and the US (7%), with the rest scattered among many other countries.
In the past, reparations have been paid after hostilities ended by the aggressor country — that was Germany in the first two world wars. Now, the fact that many countries already have control over Russia’s holdings of foreign currency means that, in effect, reparations for the Ukrainian invasion have been pre-funded by Russia itself. This is an admittedly unique circumstance, but there is a basis in international law for enabling nations that hold these reserves to commit them to pay for damages.
Russia has committed on a massive scale what under US law is considered an “intentional tort”: unprovoked violence, which requires at a minimum that the aggressor pay damages for human suffering, deaths and property losses. In December 2005 the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution affirming a variation of intentional tort doctrine by providing a right to reparations to victims of human rights abuses under international law.
The UN resolution is not self-enforcing, however. Instead, it charges member states to establish “national programs for reparation and other assistance to victims in the event that the parties liable for the harm suffered are unable or unwilling to meet their obligations.” It’s a safe bet that Russia won’t be willing to meet these obligations, so other countries now holding Russian reserves can best enforce the reparations principle by agreeing on a common plan.
In theory, reparations and other assistance for Ukraine would have the most international legitimacy if it were administered by the UN, though there’s no precedent for the UN doing so. Moreover, even if the UN General Assembly — which already has censured Russia for its invasion of Ukraine — were to establish such a program, Russia, and perhaps China, would veto it at the Security Council.
Nonetheless, a coalition of willing states could establish their own special reparations task force to rectify the massive human rights wrongs committed by Russia in Ukraine. Ideally, the task force would be a relatively small, nimble new body led by internationally recognized names with a reputation for integrity on par with the late Kofi Annan, the former UN Secretary General who won a Nobel Peace Prize. It should be staffed by experts provided by countries whose central banks hold Russian foreign currency reserves, along with others from nonprofit and private sectors, preferably with government expertise. Representatives of the Ukrainian government should be involved.
The types of damage outlined above call for a three-part process:
First, the task force must develop a process to reimburse costs for humanitarian relief borne by the European countries that are taking in Ukrainian refugees. A rough accounting for just the first year could allocate $5,000 a person, which for an eventual five million refugees would amount to $25 billion. Plans should be made for a longer period in case refugees are prevented from returning home after a year. The price tag for humanitarian aid and relocation could easily soar above $50 billion.
Second, a substantial portion of the Russian reserves should be used to compensate Ukrainians for loss of property. (This could be hugely complicated if property records, in paper archives or stored on computer hard disks, are destroyed in the war.) If reparations for 11 million Ukrainian family units (the population of 44 million divided by 4) averaged out to be $20,000 a family, the total would reach $220 billion. Add to this potentially tens of billions to compensate surviving family members for the wrongful deaths of their loved ones, both military and civilian, caused by the Russian invasion.
Third, some portion of the reserves should fund reconstruction. This would be implemented only if Ukraine prevails in the war (say, by being able to hold onto some western portions of the country), or if and when Russia returns sovereignty to the whole country. Until then, reconstruction funds would be held in trust and invested in income-producing assets. Russian-inflicted damages already likely exceed $100 billion, and will mount much higher as the war continues.
Once a plan is agreed upon, the nations holding the Russian reserves could fund it in one of two ways: they could agree to have their central banks transfer the money to a single entity, such as the Bank for International Settlements (a central bank for all central banks) ; or each nation could make pro rata distributions according to an agreed schedule.
It’s possible, if not likely, that the available $350 billion would be quickly exhausted by funding all three components of this plan — especially if the countries involved decide to hold back some portion of the reserves to be returned to Russia on the condition that it restores full sovereignty to Ukraine. A holdback might provide an incentive for possible new leadership in Russia to do the right thing in the future, though there would be plenty of justification for not returning a dime.
If there’s not enough money to cover everything, then reparations would need to be prioritized and limited. It would be important to move cautiously on spending beyond funding immediate humanitarian aid. Events are fluid and the reparations task force would need to adapt to unexpected developments. It also needs to decide when to begin making payments. Ideally, money could begin flowing as soon as families are reunited, but there’s no way of anticipating when that will happen. Another option is to spread out payments over time.
In my view, China would not be part of the proposed task force unless it contributes its own holdings of Russia’s foreign currency reserves and succeeds in persuading Russia to assure Ukraine’s sovereignty. If it does that, it would be worth dealing with the potential complications of having China participate in overseeing the distributions.
To establish the task force and its broad authority, each participating nation would probably need to get the approval of its key legislative bodies — such as Congress, in the US This could be expedited if those legislators immediately authorized their heads of state to dispatch officials to develop the outlines of the plan that would be submitted for legislative approval.
The world may not be able to prevent the humanitarian disaster unfolding in Ukraine for fear of provoking World War III, but a coalition of the willing has the means to alleviate some of the suffering, and to make Russia responsible for funding a substantial portion of the massive reparations that will be required.