English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 06/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Second Sunday of Great Lent: Sunday of the Man with Leprosy
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark
1,35-45./In the morning, while it was still very dark, Jesus got up and went out
to a deserted place, and there he prayed. And Simon and his companions hunted
for him. When they found him, they said to him, ‘Everyone is searching for you.’
He answered, ‘Let us go on to the neighbouring towns, so that I may proclaim the
message there also; for that is what I came out to do.’ And he went throughout
Galilee, proclaiming the message in their synagogues and casting out demons. A
leper came to him begging him, and kneeling he said to him, ‘If you choose, you
can make me clean.’ Moved with pity, Jesus stretched out his hand and touched
him, and said to him, ‘I do choose. Be made clean!’ Immediately the leprosy left
him, and he was made clean. After sternly warning him he sent him away at once,
saying to him, ‘See that you say nothing to anyone; but go, show yourself to the
priest, and offer for your cleansing what Moses commanded, as a testimony to
them.’ But he went out and began to proclaim it freely, and to spread the word,
so that Jesus could no longer go into a town openly, but stayed out in the
country; and people came to him from every quarter.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on March 05-06/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him/Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
MoPH: 1,266 new coronavirus cases, 8 deaths
Ministry of Economy warns traders against any manipulation of food security
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'Hizbullah Financiers' in Guinea
Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's Proposal
Lebanon's Cabinet Forms Ministerial Panel to Study Voting Megacenters
Possibility
UN initiative brings Lebanese products to the US
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on March 05-06/2022
From 2015 Archive/The main problem for the U.S. to maintain its imperial
supremacy is to prevent Russia-Germany connection.
Russian plane lands in US to remove diplomats expelled for alleged espionage
Russia’s demand for guarantees from US ‘not constructive’ for Vienna talks:
Official
Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end
IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks Seen as Key to Nuclear Deal
Grossi: Nuclear Deal Not Possible Until Iran Resolves its Issues with Agency
Sept. 11 Victims Seek Seizure of Iran Oil from US-Owned Tanker
Israeli PM Bennett meets Putin in Moscow to discuss Ukraine crisis
Blinken hears harrowing tales from refugees fleeing Ukraine
'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves Russia, Ukraine in
precarious positions
UN Security Council to Meet Monday on Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine
Russia's War in Ukraine: Latest Developments
Cease-fire attempt in Ukraine fails amid Russian shelling
Ukraine Says Mariupol Evacuation Delayed by Russian Ceasefire Violations
EU Suspends Russia, Belarus from Council of Baltic Sea States
Russian Defense Ministry: Ceasefire to Let Mariupol Residents Evacuate
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Statement
The US envoy to Yemen and the Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy
Dozens of Soldiers Killed in Attack on Military Camp in Mali/N.Korea Conducts
Ninth Missile Test in 2022
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on March 05-06/2022
Question: "What are the different types of fasting?"/GotQuestions.org?/March
06/2022
Putin Is Making a Mockery of the United Nations/The Biden administration must
finally recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot do./Richard
Goldberg and John Hardie/The Dispatch/March 05/2022 |
Iran Approaches the Nuclear Threshold /Washington’s Narrowing Policy
Options/Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero/Memo/March 05/2022 |
Erdoğan, in Trouble at Home, Fishing for Trouble in the Aegean/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/March 05/2022
Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences/Amir Taheri/Alsharq Al Awsat/March,
05/2022
How and Why Will Putin Seize Ukraine/Camelia Entekhabifard/Alsharq Al Awsat/March,
05/2022
Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming/Frank Bruni/The New York
Times/March, 05/2022
on March 05-06/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him
Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/52983/elias-bejjani-the-lepers-solid-faith-cured-him/
Christ, the Son of God, is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek
forgiveness and repentance. When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration,
He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said. As a loving Father, He
always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all
kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of
Satan’s sinful temptations.
Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain,
torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His
crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and
Eve committed. He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with
Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father’s Heavenly kingdom.
Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear:
“Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.”
(Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus’ call and came to Him asking
for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his
request.
The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating
and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the
hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus’ mercy.
With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and
begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, “If you want to, you can
make me clean.” When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him
and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great
passion and strictly warned him, “See you say nothing to anybody, but go show
yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses
commanded, for a testimony to them.” But the leper went out, began to proclaim
it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter
into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from
everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper’s great example of faith.
Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer,
begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of
salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love,
transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God’s mercy and
unwaveringly go after it.
The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse
him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus’ attention and mercy.
His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a
leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus’
feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he
spoke to Jesus saying “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if
you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line
with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is
working out then you can make me clean.
Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from
the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or
families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering
the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their
basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God’s eyes these sick lepers were
His children whom He dearly loves and cares for. “Blessed are you when people
reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for
my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven.
For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you”.
Matthew(5/11-12)
The leper trusted in God’s parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus’
divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a
pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus’ hands and will
knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. “Blessed are
the pure in heart, for they shall see God”. (Matthew5/8)
We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast
faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do
whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to
trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He
surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can
not grasp His help.
Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting
ritual: “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe
that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand
praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who
is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not
forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions” (Mark
11/24-26)
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our
requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and
humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children
and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through
praying. “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it
will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To
him who knocks it will be opened”. (Matthew 7/8 -9)
N.B: The above piece was first published in year 2015/It is republished with
Minor changes
MoPH: 1,266 new coronavirus cases, 8 deaths
NNA/March 05/2022
Lebanon has recorded 1,266 new coronavirus cases and 8 deaths in the last 24
hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Thursday
Ministry of Economy warns traders against any manipulation
of food security
NNA/March 05/2022
Ministry of Trade and Economy warned merchants in a statement on Saturday
"against any manipulation in sales operations or intending to monopolize
foodstuffs in order to achieve illegal profits.”
The statement added that “the ministry will not hesitate to take deterrent and
repressive measures against anyone who begged himself to tamper with the food
security of the Lebanese."
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'Hizbullah Financiers' in Guinea
Naharnet/March 05/2022
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)
has designated two “key Hizbullah financiers” operating in Guinea, a statement
said. “This action is aimed at disrupting Hizbullah’s business network in West
Africa, which relies on bribery and influence to circumvent the rule of law. In
addition to other sources of funding, Hizbullah generates revenue from
commercial activities across the world to sponsor acts of terrorism,” the U.S.
statement added. It said the designation demonstrates Treasury’s ongoing efforts
to target the group’s “international commercial activities and its global
network of financiers, supporters, donors, and facilitators, which enable
Hizbullah to persistently threaten the security, stability, and prosperity of
Lebanon and other jurisdictions.” “With this action, Treasury continues to
expose businessmen who support Hizbullah’s destabilizing activities through
bribes and other corrupt activity,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for
Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “The illicit financial
activity of those designated today not only props up Hizbullah, but also
undermines the legitimate commercial sector and rule of law in countries where
such financial activity takes place,” he added. The statement designated the two
individuals as Ali Saade and Ibrahim Taher, describing them as “prominent
Lebanese businessmen with direct connections to Hizbullah.” “Saade initiates the
money transfers from Guinea to Hizbullah, transferring funds through Hizbullah
representatives in Guinea and Lebanon. Taher has been identified as one of the
most prominent financial supporters of Hizbullah in Guinea. He is believed to
employ a number of individuals affiliated with Hizbullah within the country,”
the statement said. They are being designated for “having materially assisted,
sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or
goods or services to or in support of, Hizbullah.” The statement added that
Saade has “a close relationship with designated Hizbullah supporter Kassem
Tajideen whom OFAC designated in 2009 for being an important financial
contributor to Hizbullah.”
At the time of his designation, Tajideen had “contributed tens of millions of
dollars to Hizbullah and ran cover companies for Hizbullah in Africa with his
brothers,” the Treasury said. “Saade was Tajideen’s primary political contact in
Guinea. He made significant efforts to provide Tajideen with unrestricted access
to corrupt members of the former Guinean administration at the highest levels
and the rest of the Guinean government. Saade also advised Tajideen on methods
for making financial transfers to evade detection by regulators,” the Treasury
added. Taher and an associate meanwhile sent U.S. dollars collected at one of
their commercial facilities to Conakry Airport and bribed Guinean customs
officials to allow their currency to pass in luggage, the statement said. “Taher
has used his status as an Honorary Consul of Lebanon to Cote d’Ivoire to travel
in and out of Guinea with minimal scrutiny,” it added.
Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's
Proposal
Naharnet/March 05/2022
Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah have distanced themselves from a panel formed
by President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Miqati with the aim of
studying the written proposal that has been sent to Lebanon by U.S. sea border
demarcation envoy Amos Hochstein, media reports said on Saturday. “It had been
initially decided to form a technical-administrative committee comprising
representatives of the three presidencies (Aoun, Berri and Miqati) and the
relevant ministries, but Berri distanced himself from this panel and refrained
from dispatching any representative,” ministerial sources told the Nidaa al-Watan
newspaper. “It was later decided to limit the committee’s membership to
representatives of the Presidency, the Premiership and the ministries of foreign
affairs, defense, energy and public works,” the sources added. “Once it is
formed, the committee will study the U.S. proposal and prepare a draft response
for all its points before submitting it to the three presidencies for the final
decision to taken,” the sources said, noting that the panel “does not comprise
any member of the military-technical delegation that had been tasked with
engaging in indirect negotiations (with Israel) in Naqoura,” the sources went on
to say.
Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile said that the panel will include eight members –
two for Aoun, two for Miqati, two for the Foreign Ministry and two for the
Defense Ministry. It might also comprise envoys from the Lebanese Army and the
ministries of environment, public works and energy, the daily added. High-level
sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar that Public Works Minister Ali Hamiyeh told
Hizbullah that the premier wants him to be part of the committee and that the
party rejected his participation. “We will not take part in any meeting or
negotiations related to the demarcation file, especially if the committee will
meet with U.S. delegations,” Hizbulah told the minister according to the daily.
“The Baabda Palace and the Grand Serail have not agreed on the names of the
committee members until the moment,” al-Akhbar added.
Lebanon's Cabinet Forms Ministerial Panel to Study Voting Megacenters
Possibility
Naharnet/March 05/2022
The Cabinet has formed a ministerial committee to study the possibility of
setting up voting megacenters in the upcoming elections, after a study prepared
by the Interior Ministry failed to convince President Michel Aoun. The committee
comprises the ministers of justice, interior, finance, foreign affairs,
educations, culture, tourism and telecommunications. It will be tasked with
preparing a report on the possibility of setting up megacenters for the May 15
elections. According to local newspapers, Cabinet will discuss the report in a
session that will be held Thursday in Baabda. The Interior Ministry had
announced in a study presented to Prime Minister Najib Miqati earlier this way
that it wil be impossible to use voting megacenters in the May 15 parliamentary
elections, citing legal, logistic and financial difficulties. Miqati had
requested the study following a letter from Aoun, who has described the
megacenters plan as necessary. The study said that it would be impossible to set
up the megacenters within the deadlines stipulated by the current electoral law.
It also said that there is a need to introduce legal amendments amid the
presence of logistic and organizational difficulties in terms of the needed
manpower and financial resources. “The time needed to finalize the preparations
is no less than five months,” the study said. It added that the project’s total
cost would stand at around $5.8 million.
UN initiative brings Lebanese products to the US
Robert McKelvey, Al Arabiya English/March 05/,2022
As Lebanese struggle amid the country’s seemingly intractable economic crisis,
the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has announced a new initiative to
assist embattled business owners by extending their reach overseas.
The Fast Track Export Support Program provides Lebanese companies in productive
sectors the opportunity to enter new export markets in the US, bringing in
much-needed fresh dollars. In turn, it will support sustainable business and
growth.
“This initiative comes at a time when Lebanon is struggling with the
consequences of the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, including the
loss in economic activities, revenues, and jobs, as well as a major disruption
in global supply chains affecting the competitiveness of small businesses,” UNDP
Project Manager Leila Sawaya told Al Arabiya English. “[This] is part of the
UNDP’s ongoing efforts to support sustainable solutions that would unlock local
companies’ export potential and provides a one-stop-shop solution to facilitate
the entry of Lebanese goods into the US market,” she continued.
The Lebanese lira has lost over 90 percent of its value over the last two years,
resulting in a massive economic downturn. Combined with rapidly rising prices,
most local consumers have little to spare, putting increasing pressure on
smaller businesses in particular.
Many Lebanese people have lost their jobs due to the economic crisis, with more
than 80 percent now living below the poverty line. The UNDP hopes its program
will help preserve the livelihoods of Lebanese workers and even lead to the
creation of new jobs as these businesses expand.
“Providing Lebanese companies with the added boost needed to enter foreign
markets is instrumental at this point,” Sawaya said. “Local purchasing power is
shrinking, and companies are struggling to remain afloat.”Participants will
receive three months of coaching from US-based consultants, helping them create
and implement an effective market entry strategy. The UNDP will then provide
in-kind assistance to help cover logistical costs, including shipping and
warehousing in the US and clearance and customs procedures.
At the same time, marketing support working on branding, primarily focusing on
packaging and labeling uplifts, and business development services provided by a
US-based broker will help companies connect with potential buyers and
distributors.
While most of the companies in the program sell processed food products, such as
olive oil, non-alcoholic beverages, organic food preparations, or dried herbs
like zaatar, others sell high-end, high-quality cosmetics products like
artisanal soaps.
“We have diversity in the type of companies in our program and the type of
products they sell,” Sawaya explained. “Some are selling products that fit the
mainstream US market, and some are for the ethnic Middle Eastern market in the
US. Both markets are growing and have strong growth potential.”“We have already
tested the appetite for these products, and we have received very positive
feedback,” she added. “It is a large and challenging market, but very rewarding
if companies are provided with the support needed.”
Competition inside Lebanon’s domestic markets makes it difficult for companies
to grow and expand their market share. At the same time, the troubled country’s
lack of modern manufacturing infrastructure and dependency on imports – paid for
in foreign currency – prevents companies from producing enough to meet the
demand from export markets. It is then further compounded by global increases in
logistical costs due to the COVID-19 pandemic and informal capital controls
imposed by Lebanese commercial banks and the halting of financial services. For
many, the initiatives like the UNDP’s are their only hope.
“[This] program will allow us to have access to US dollars, which is the
currency we use to buy everything we need in Lebanon, including the raw
material, the machinery, and the rent of our premises,” said Georgy Rahayel,
Founder of Le Joyau d’Olive. “Sadly, even rent is now paid in US dollars.”
“We’re a small company,” he explained. “With Fast Track, we’re able to access
distributors in the US [and] the program will bear the cost of shipping and
warehousing in the US, which is something we would not have been able to do on
our own.”
Even larger-scale operations face obstacles when stepping up to the
international level. Even with sufficient resources and staff, not being able to
successfully navigate international trade regulations or comply with the
standards of the markets they are seeking to enter into makes the process
confusing and frustrating. “[We are] one of the biggest non-conventional wheat
mills in the Bekaa region,” said Isabelle Bou Khalife Saliba, Co-Owner and
Marketing Manager of Rim Mills. “[We are] equipped with a modern factory capable
of meeting the local and international demands [and we] have built a cluster of
farmers in the region, focusing on producing burghul and recently moghrabieh,
also known as the ‘Lebanese pearl.’”“For companies that are at an earlier stage
of their export process,” she explained, “it’s hard to understand the US market
requirements and consumer trends, [or find] advice on how to improve their
marketing strategy and connect with potential buyers, distributors or
importers.”“[This program] is offering [my company] the [opportunity] to
penetrate the US market in a quick yet smooth way,” said Rose Bechara Perini,
Founder of Darmmess. “I produce, market, and distribute a high-end, high
antioxidant extra virgin olive oil. [With access to] scientific data,
knowledgeable business consultations [and] support, I would expect the brand [to
be] leading the category of high-end Lebanese olive oils on that market in a few
years.”
Despite the perceived quality of Lebanese goods, it remains to be seen if
enhancing foreign exports can turn the tide of the country’s economic woes.
Without large-scale support from the Lebanese government, initiatives like the
UNDP’s ‘Fast Track’ are only a temporary stopgap, but one that may point the way
to a better – and more stable – economic future.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News
published on March 05-06/2022
ديو مهم من المفيد مشاهدته/الكاتت والمحلل والخبير السياسي الأميركي جي فريدمان
يحكي تاريخ أوروبا الدموي والعلاقات الدولية والحروب وما يراه للمستقبل في الحرب
الأوكرانية-الروسية
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emCEfEYom4A
From 2015 Archive/The main problem for the U.S. to maintain its imperial supremacy is to prevent
Russia-Germany connection.
Russian plane lands in US to remove diplomats expelled for
alleged espionage
AFP/March 05, 2022
WASHINGTON: A Russian plane landed at Washington’s international airport
Saturday to pick up about a dozen diplomats from Moscow’s UN mission who are
accused by Washington of espionage, authorities said. The United States closed
its airspace to all Russian aircraft after Moscow invaded Ukraine. The Ilyushin
Il-96 aircraft was allowed, however, to land at Dulles International Airport.
The landing was confirmed by the FlightAware website, which tracks all air
movement.“The US government approved a flight chartered by the Russian
government to facilitate the departure of Russian UN Mission personnel who were
expelled for abuse of their privileges of residence,” a State Department
spokesman told AFP. “This special exception was done... to ensure Russian
mission personnel and their families departed by the date we had instructed,”
the spokesman added, speaking on background. The United States had called on
Monday for the expulsion of 12 members of Russia’s UN mission by March 7. A day
later, again citing alleged espionage, the US ordered the expulsion of a Russian
national working for the UN secretariat. “This is a hostile move against our
country,” Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoli Antonov said in a
Facebook message, adding that Moscow “totally rejected” the US claims.The
Russian mission employs about 100 people, according to a Russian diplomatic
source.
Russia’s demand for guarantees from US ‘not constructive’
for Vienna talks: Official
Reuters/Published: 05 March ,2022
Russia’s demand for written guarantees from the United States that sanctions on
Moscow would not damage its cooperation with Iran is “not constructive” for
talks between Tehran and global powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, a senior
Iranian official told Reuters on Saturday.
“Russians had put this demand on table since two days ago. There is an
understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to
secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive for Vienna
nuclear talks,” said the official in Tehran. Russia said on Saturday that
Western sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine had become a stumbling
block for the Iran nuclear deal, warning the West that Russian national
interests would have to be taken into account.
Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end
AP/March 05, 2022
VIENNA: Iran has agreed to supply answers long sought by the United Nations'
nuclear watchdog, Tehran and the UN agency said Saturday, as talks in Vienna
over its tattered atomic deal with world powers appear to be coming to an end.
A joint statement by Mohammad Eslami, the head of the civilian Atomic Energy
Organization of Iran, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic
Energy, came hours after the two met in Tehran. It envisions the IAEA reaching
conclusions on the discovery of uranium particles at former undeclared sites in
Iran by June. The move is separate from the talks over the nuclear deal but
could help push them to a conclusion. But meanwhile, Russia's foreign minister
for the first time linked US sanctions on Moscow over its war on Ukraine to the
ongoing Iran nuclear deal talks — adding a new wrinkle to the delicate
diplomacy. Grossi said in Tehran that “it would be difficult to believe or to
imagine that such an important return to such a comprehensive agreement ...
would be possible if the agency and Iran would not be seeing eye to eye on how
to resolve these important safeguards issues.” Safeguards refer to the IAEA's
inspections and monitoring of a country's nuclear program. Grossi for years has
sought for Iran to answer questions about man-made uranium particles found at
former undeclared nuclear sites. US intelligence agencies, Western nations and
the IAEA have said Iran ran an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003.
Iran long has denied ever seeking nuclear weapons.
Eslami said the men had reached an “agreement” that would see Iran “presenting
documents that would remove the ambiguities about our country.” He did not
elaborate on what the documents would discuss.
The later joint statement said that Eslami's agency will by March 20 give the UN
nuclear watchdog “written explanations including related supporting documents to
the questions raised by the IAEA which have not been addressed by Iran on the
issues related to three locations.”Within two weeks, the IAEA will review that
information and submit any questions, and within a week of that the two agencies
will meet in Tehran to address the questions.
Grossi will then aim to report his conclusions by the time the IAEA board of
governors meets in June. Speaking on his return to Vienna, Grossi said that “may
or may not happen,” depending on Iran’s cooperation. He said the conclusions
could go in “different directions” and could be final or partial.
“The safeguards issues will not be resolved politically because I will not go
for that,” Grossi said. “There is no artificial deadline, there is no predefined
outcome, there is no predefined name for what I am going to do,” he told
reporters.
The nuclear deal saw Iran agree to drastically limit its enrichment of uranium
in exchange for the lifting of crushing economic sanctions. But a 2018 decision
by then-President Donald Trump to unilaterally withdraw America from the
agreement sparked years of tensions and attacks across the wider Mideast. Today,
Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — its highest level ever and a short
technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% and far greater than the nuclear
deal’s 3.67% cap. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to grow,
worrying nuclear nonproliferation experts that Iran could be closer to the
threshold of having enough material for an atomic weapon if it chose to pursue
one.
Undeclared sites played into the initial 2015 deal as well. That year the IAEA’s
then-director-general went to Tehran and visited one suspected weapons-program
site at Parchin. Inspectors also took samples there for analysis.
Grossi's inspectors also face challenges in monitoring Iran's current advances
in its civilian program. Iran has held IAEA surveillance camera recordings since
February 2021, not letting inspectors view them amid the nuclear negotiations.
In Vienna, negotiators appear to be signaling a deal is near, even as Russia's
war in Ukraine rages on. Russian ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov has been a key
mediator in the talks and tweeted Thursday that negotiations were “almost over.”
That was also acknowledged by French negotiator Philippe Errera. “We hope to
come back quickly to conclude because we are very, very close to an agreement,”
Errera wrote Friday on Twitter. “But nothing is agreed until EVERYTHING is
agreed!”But comments Saturday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the
first time offered the suggestion that the Ukraine war — and the stinging
sanctions that Americans and others have put on Moscow — could interfere.
“We need guarantees these sanctions will in no way affect the trading, economic
and investment relations contained in the (deal) for the Iranian nuclear
program," Lavrov said, according to the Tass news agency
IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks Seen as Key to Nuclear Deal
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The U.N. nuclear watchdog's chief held high-level talks in Tehran on Saturday
that are seen as crucial in efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran
and world powers. The visit by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael
Grossi comes after Britain, one of the parties to parallel talks on the deal in
Vienna, indicated that an agreement was close. The accord has been hanging by a
thread since the United States' unilateral withdrawal in 2018 under then
president Donald Trump."This is a critical time but a positive outcome for
everyone is possible," the director general of the Vienna-based IAEA tweeted on
Friday before flying to Iran. Grossi held talks on Saturday with Mohammed Eslami,
president of the Atomic Engergy Organization of Iran, ahead of a meeting with
Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, states news agency IRNA said. The
2015 nuclear deal was aimed at guaranteeing that Tehran could not develop a
nuclear weapon -- something it has always denied wanting to do. The next few
days are widely seen as a crunch point for negotiations on reviving the accord
formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. "We are
close. E3 negotiators leaving Vienna briefly to update ministers on state of
play" and were "ready to return soon", said British delegation head Stephanie
Al-Qaq, referring to negotiators from Britain, France and Germany. Ongoing talks
in the Austrian capital to restore the agreement involve Iran as well as
Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly, and the United States
indirectly.
'Roadmap'
Grossi vowed this week that the IAEA would "never abandon" its attempts to get
Iran to clarify the presence in the past of nuclear material at several
undeclared sites. Iran has said the closure of the probe is necessary to clinch
a deal. Behrouz Kamalvandi, deputy head of the Iranian atomic agency, told
television he was hopeful Iran would reach an agreement with the IAEA during
Grossi's visit. Iranian newspapers Etemad and Iran echoed his comments, with the
former saying "Tehran and the IAEA could reach a roadmap to resolve the problem
within a limited time". Grossi is expected to hold a news conference on his
return to Vienna. The JCPOA gave Iran relief from sanctions in return for strict
curbs on its nuclear program.Trump's decision to withdraw from it in 2018 was
followed by the imposition of crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran, prompting the
Islamic republic to start disregarding the limits on its nuclear activity.
'Work ongoing'
The coming days are seen as pivotal by the West because of the rate Iran is
making nuclear advances. Its stockpile of enriched uranium has now reached more
than 15 times the limit set out in the 2015 accord, the IAEA said this week.
Several observers believe the West could leave the negotiating table and chalk
the deal up to a failure if a compromise is not reached this weekend. The EU has
been chairing nuclear deal negotiations and the bloc's foreign policy chief
Josep Borrell said on Friday he "hopes to have results this weekend" to
"resurrect the agreement." He stressed there was "still work ongoing." Iran's
top diplomat, Amir-Abdollahian, said earlier he was prepared to travel to the
Austrian capital if a deal was reached. "I am ready to go to Vienna when the
Western sides accept our remaining red lines," he said in a phone call with
Borrell. While Amir-Abdollahian did not define the "red lines", Iran has
repeatedly demanded the right to verify the removal of sanctions and for
guarantees the U.S. will not repeat its withdrawal from the agreement.On
Thursday, U.S. State Department deputy spokeswoman Jalina Porter said
negotiators were "close to a possible deal", but that "a number of difficult
issues" remained unresolved. أowever, "if Iran shows seriousness, we can and
should reach an understanding of mutual return to full implementation of the
JCPOA within days," she added.
Grossi: Nuclear Deal Not Possible Until Iran Resolves its
Issues with Agency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said on Saturday
that reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers will not be
possible without first settling Tehran's issues with the agency. Iran's nuclear
chief Mohammad Eslami told a joint news conference in Tehran with Grossi that
outstanding issues would be resolved toward the end of June. Tehran has agreed
to "present documents to the IAEA to close remaining issues", he said. Tehran
and Washington have held more than 11 months of indirect talks in Vienna on
reviving the pact, which was abandoned in 2018 by former US President Donald
Trump, who also reimposed far-reaching sanctions on Iran. The 2015 deal limited
Iran's enrichment of uranium, to make it harder for Tehran to develop material
for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of economic sanctions. All parties
involved in the talks aimed at bringing Tehran and Washington back into
compliance with the nuclear pact have said they were close to reaching an
agreement in Vienna. One wildcard is an effort by the IAEA to resolve questions
about nuclear material that the Vienna-based agency suspects Iran failed to
declare Grossi said there are matters that still need to be addressed by Iran.
Sept. 11 Victims Seek Seizure of Iran Oil from US-Owned Tanker
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
Victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks asked a US judge to order the seizure of
Iranian crude oil from a tanker owned by an American private equity firm, to
help satisfy a $3.61 billion judgment against Iran over the attacks. The request
came in filings on Thursday with the US District Court in Manhattan. Dozens of
attack victims and their families said the Suez Rajan, owned by Los
Angeles-based Oaktree Capital Management and idling in Southeast Asia, appeared
to be carrying up to 1 million barrels of Iranian oil, violating US sanctions.
They said the oil should be sold to help cover their February 2018 judgment
against Iran over that country's providing material support to al-Qaeda related
to the attacks. Iran has long denied such claims. Oaktree has about $166 billion
of assets under management. Neither the firm nor its London-based Fleetscape
unit, which finances the Suez Rajan, immediately responded on Friday to requests
for comment. The request came after the nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran,
which uses satellite images to track tanker movement, wrote Oaktree on Feb. 15
that the Suez Rajan appeared to have taken on the oil from another tanker two
days earlier.
Even if the oil were seized, sales proceeds at current prices would cover only
about 3% of the $3.61 billion judgment. Victims said about $3.44 billion is
outstanding, with the National Iranian Oil Co and National Iranian Tanker Corp,
both under US sanctions, among the entities responsible to pay it. Judgments
against accused state sponsors of terrorism are often impossible to enforce. On
Feb. 18, Fleetscape said the Suez Rajan was operated by Empire Navigation, and
that it had no role operating Empire's fleet. It also said it took accusations
of US sanctions violations seriously. Empire, based in Athens, said on Feb. 21
it was also investigating the matter. Nearly 3,000 people died on Sept. 11,
2001, when planes were flown into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in
northern Virginia, and a Pennsylvania field. The cases are Hoglan et al v
Oaktree Capital Management LP et al, US District Court, Southern District of New
York, No. 11-07550; and In re Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001 in the
same court, No. 03-md-01570.
Israeli PM Bennett meets Putin in Moscow to discuss Ukraine
crisis
REUTERS/March 05, 2022
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with Russian President
Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Saturday to discuss the Ukraine crisis, his
spokesperson said. Israel, home to a substantial population of Russian
immigrants, has offered to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,
though officials have previously played down expectations of a breakthrough.
While Israel, a close ally of the United States, has condemned the Russian
invasion, voiced solidarity with Kyiv and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it
has said it will maintain communications with Moscow in the hope of helping to
ease the crisis. Israel is also mindful of Moscow’s military support for
President Bashar Assad in next-door Syria, where Israel regularly attacks
Iranian and Hezbollah military targets. Contacts with Moscow prevent Russian and
Israeli forces trading fire by accident.Bennett, a religious Jew, took a flight
in violation of Sabbath law because Judaism permits this when the aim is to
preserve human life, his spokesperson said..Lavrov said he wanted “guarantees at
least at the level of the secretary of state” that the US sanctions would not
affect Moscow's relationship with Tehran. There was no immediate American
response to Lavrov's comments. Meanwhile on Saturday, Iran's paramilitary
Revolutionary Guard unveiled what it described as two new underground missile
and drone bases in the country. State TV said the bases contained
surface-to-surface missiles and armed drones capable of “hiding themselves from
enemy radar.”
Blinken hears harrowing tales from refugees fleeing Ukraine
AP/March 05, 2022
KORCZOWA, Poland: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday visited a
welcome center set up by Polish authorities in what once was a shopping mall in
Korczowa, close to the border with Ukraine. At the center, there are roughly
3,000 refugees taking shelter after the Russian invasion of their homeland.
While at the border later, Blinken stepped briefly onto Ukrainian soil to meet
Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba, who predicted Russia would be defeated but
appealed for more military assistance to lower the cost in lives that he said
victory will require. At the refugee center, America’s top diplomat heard
harrowing tales from mothers and their children who described long and perilous
journeys — and the shock of the sudden disruption and the fear for their lives —
after fleeing the devastation of the war. “Near our home we heard bombs,” said
Venera Ahmadi, 12, who said she came with her brother and sister, six dogs and
seven cats from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, more than 600 kilometers (372
miles) away. “We walked to the border, I don’t know how many hours. We crossed
the border on foot.”Her 16-year-old sister, Jasmine, said: “I was scared I would
die.” Natalia Kadygrob, 48, reached the center with her four adopted children
from Kropyvnytskyi, almost 800 kilometers (about 500 miles) by bus on their way
to her brother’s home in Germany. Her husband stayed behind. “There they bombed
planes at the airport,” she said. “Of course we were afraid.”Tatyana, 58, who
wouldn’t give her last name, came with her daughter, Anna, 37, and her 6- and
1-year-old daughters, Katya and Kira, from Kharkiv, about 1,000 kilometers (621
miles) away. “They were shooting on the street,” Tatyana said. Anna said her
home had been destroyed by a shell or a rocket.
She was in the basement with her daughters when the explosion happened. “They
should be in school,” Anna said. “They are children, they don’t understand.”
Blinken then met with Kuleba on a visit to the Korczowa border crossing where
Polish authorities escorted small groups of refugees — about 20 at a time —
across the frontier from the Ukrainian town of Krakovets as sporadic snow flakes
fell from a gray sky. Groups mainly of women, children and elderly men — grimly
rolling their possessions in luggage and carrying infants and the occasional
family pet — made their way into makeshift processing centers set up in tents on
Polish territory. The foreign minister said he wanted to convey a simple
message: “Ukraine will win this war because this is the people’s war for their
land and we defend the right course,.” He added, “The question is the price, the
price of our victory.”Kubela said that if Ukraine’s allies “continue to take
bold, systemic decisions to step up economic and political pressure on (Russia),
if they continue to provide us with necessary weapons, the price will be lower”
and “this will save many lives in Ukraine.”Blinken praised Kuleba, President
Volodmyr Zelenskyy and other officials for their courage and “inspiring”
leadership during the crisis. He said support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia
to end the war would increase “until this war of choice is brought to an end.”
Kuleba thanked Blinken for the support so far but said Ukraine needed even more
if his country’s predicted victory was not to come at too high a cost. He
lamented that NATO on Friday had rejected appeals from nonmember Ukraine and
others to set up a no-fly zone over the country. “We are now in the phase where
maybe saying ‘No, we’re not going to do that’, but the time will come,” Kuleba
said. “It’s again the issue of price. It is the people of Ukraine who will pay
the price for the reluctance of NATO to act.” Blinken earlier was in the city of
Rzeszow for talks with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Foreign
Minister Zbigniew Rau a day after attending a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in
Brussels. The alliance pledged to step up support for eastern flank members such
as Poland to counter the Russian invasion. Poland is seeking more US forces on
its territory, where there are currently more than 10,000 American troops. Rau
said Poland had already taken in more than 700,000 refugees from Ukraine and
that he expected hundreds of thousands more in the coming weeks unless Russia
backs down. “Poland will never recognize territorial changes brought about by
unprovoked, unlawful aggression,” he said, adding that his country will demand
that alleged Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine will be prosecuted.
Morawiecki and Blinken discussed stepping up sanctions and freezes of assets on
Russia, which Morawiecki said should be “crushing” for Russia’s economy. No
Russian banks should be exempted from the exclusions from the SWIFT system, he
said. Currently, all but the largest Russian banks have been kicked off the
financial messaging service.
'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves
Russia, Ukraine in precarious positions
Tom Vanden Brook/USA Today/March 5, 2022
WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a critical juncture in the
week-old war he started in Ukraine.
Bad choices, of his own making, are all he has left, experts say.
Unleash the full fury of firepower he's amassed on Ukrainian cities, and Putin
risks killing thousands of civilians and destroying homes, buildings and roads.
Surround the population centers, choke off water, food and electricity, and
Putin assembles the ingredients for a humanitarian catastrophe. Send in ground
forces to take control, and Putin will invites a blood bath that kills
Ukrainians and sends troops in body bags back to Russia.
Putin's initial plan has unraveled, resting on the assumption that Ukrainian
officials and troops would capitulate quickly. Instead, the spirited resistance
from Ukrainians and poor performance by his own troops has left Putin and his
military commanders frustrated and behind schedule, according to a senior
Defense Department official. The Pentagon and military experts expect Putin's
forces to regroup, encircle cities and lay siege to them, shelling and bombing
them until they surrender. The Russians will likely seize control of the cities.
Deep, hardened resistance awaits them.
It won't be an easy fight, said Colin Smith, an expert on the Russian military
at the RAND Corp. If Russia allows citizens to flee along the corridors they've
agreed to establish, they'll leave behind well-armed fighters in cities like
Kyiv.
"Then it's kind of a giant Alamo," Smith said. "It's an Alamo they can sustain
for quite a long time if they've got the ammunition. They have the deepest
subways in the world. It's their backyard. They could fight for a very, very
long time."
There are also indications of poor morale among Russian troops, according to the
Defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence
findings. Food and fuel shortages along with poor training have contributed to
morale problems. The main Russian force arrayed against Kyiv remains stuck about
15 miles from the city's center. "There's enough evidence that there are Russian
soldiers who do not want to fight and are not on board with killing Ukrainians,"
Smith said. "There's equipment that's been left behind, and they didn't just run
out of gas. There's equipment that's been just left behind wholesale – perfectly
working equipment – with no Russian soldiers in sight."Even if Russian forces
overrun Ukraine's major cities, the invasion force invasion force of 190,000
troops in and around Ukraine is not large enough to control a largely hostile
population of more than 40 million Ukrainians, said Seth Jones, senior vice
president and director of the international security program at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies.
"It will likely be difficult for the Russian army to hold territory for long
with such a small ratio of soldiers to local inhabitants," Jones said. "High
numbers of troops are critical for establishing law and order."
Another problem for a Russian force spread too thin: Ukraine's open western
border. U.S. and NATO allies have been funneling weapons, ammunition and
supplies through western Ukraine. In the last week, as much as $240 million
worth of arms, including anti-tank missiles, have crossed into western Ukraine,
according to a second senior Defense Department official. "Russian forces are
unable to interdict the growing flow of anti-tank missile systems,
surface-to-air missile systems, fighters, artillery, small arms, ammunition, and
other material flowing into Ukraine," Jones said. "There is virtually no case
since World War II of an occupying army successfully pacifying a local
population when the insurgency has support from a great power."Smith raised a
darker possibility. Putin has no interest in occupying Ukraine. Instead, Smith
said, he wants to crush its government and military, leaving behind a country
incapable of aligning with or joining NATO, even though that is not an imminent
possibility. "I don't think Russia could ever control Ukraine," Smith said.
"That was never their intent. I think they just honestly want Ukraine to be a
buffer. Regardless of what government goes back into Ukraine, Ukraine has been
left so decapitated it can’t field a viable military. It's not going to join
NATO, or NATO decides against even considering it. You've created a wasteland
buffer."Putin will attempt to convince Russians that the war in Ukraine was
waged to prevent NATO from threatening Russia. "Can he sustain the spin to stay
in power? That will be determined on how long this conflict goes on," Smith
said. "Time is on Ukraine’s side. Every day that you can stand in his way is in
their favor. But it's also another day that another building and hundreds of
civilians are at risk. There's no good outcome at this point."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ukraine: Putin's war on Kyiv
turning into long slog of death, despair
UN Security Council to Meet Monday on Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Monday on the
humanitarian crisis triggered in Ukraine by the Russian invasion, diplomats said
Friday. After this public session, the 15 members of the council will confer
behind closed doors to discuss a possible draft resolution, a diplomat speaking
on condition of anonymity told AFP. This latter meeting has been proposed by
Mexico and France, who are pushing a draft that calls for an end to hostilities
in Ukraine, unhindered flow of humanitarian aid and protection of civilians. But
it has run into obstacles, namely a warning from the United States that it will
not support such a draft unless it states explicitly that Russia has caused the
humanitarian crisis, another diplomat told AFP. France originally wanted a vote
last Tuesday but it did not happen. Now, diplomats say France has shifted and in
light of US criticism is no longer pushing for a vote as quickly as before. Any
draft resolution that criticizes Russia by name is doomed because Russia has
veto power on the Security Council.
Russia's War in Ukraine: Latest Developments
Naharnet/March 5, 2022/
Here are the latest developments in Russia's war in Ukraine:
Ceasefire in two cities -
Russia's defense ministry announces a ceasefire to allow civilians in the
besieged port city of Mariupol and the town of Volnovakha to evacuate.
Mariupol's mayor Vadim Boychenko says evacuations will begin at 0900 GMT. The
strategic city of 450,000 people on the Azov Sea, which has suffered intense
shelling, has been without electricity, food, water and heating for days in the
depth of winter.
Nuclear plant fire -
A fire at Europe's biggest nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia is put out,
with Ukraine accusing Russia of "nuclear terror" in shelling the plant.
Russian troops later take over the site of the reactors, which generate a fifth
of Ukraine's electricity, after firefighters say they were prevented from
reaching the blaze for hours.
West slams 'recklessness' -
At a United Nations Security Council meeting, the U.S. ambassador Linda
Thomas-Greenfield says Russia's "reckless" overnight attack "represents a dire
threat to all of Europe and the world."
Moscow's U.N. ambassador Vassily Nebenzia denies that Russian forces had shelled
the plant, saying the statements "are simply untrue."
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),
offers to travel to Ukraine to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia on ensuring the
safety of nuclear sites.
More talks planned -
One of Ukraine's negotiators says a third round of talks with Russia on ending
the fighting is planned this weekend. Russian President Vladimir Putin in a
phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Moscow is ready for dialogue
over Ukraine if all its demands are met
Jail threat to journalists -
Award-winning Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta says it will stop reporting on the
war and the BBC says it is suspending the work of its journalists in Russia as
President Vladimir Putin signs a law imposing harsh jail sentences for the
publication of "fake news" about the invasion.
'Not over soon' -
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns that the war in Ukraine "may not be
over soon" and that the U.S. and European allies must sustain tough pressure on
Russia until it ends.
G7 threatens further sanctions -
G7 foreign ministers warn that Russia will face further "severe sanctions" for
its invasion, and call on Moscow to stop its attacks near nuclear power plants.
NATO rejects no-fly zone -
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance will not impose a no-fly zone over
Ukraine after Kyiv calls for one to help stop Russia's bombing of its cities.
Russia isolated -
Russia is more isolated than ever after a historic vote at the U.N. Human Rights
Council for a probe into violations committed during the war on Ukraine, with
only Eritrea siding with Moscow.
47 killed in northern city -
Forty-seven people have been killed following a Russian air strike in the
northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, regional authorities say.
- 'Numerous rapes': Kyiv -
Ukraine's foreign minister claims there have been "numerous cases" of Russian
troops raping Ukrainian women and calls for an international tribunal on war
crimes.
More than 1.2 million flee -
More than 1.2 million people have fled Ukraine into neighboring countries since
Russia invaded last week, the UN says.
Stocks sink, gas, oil soar -
Global stock markets fall, gas prices reach a record high, and oil prices soar
as investors fear the risk of an escalation after Russia attacked the nuclear
power plant.
Hunger threat -
The United Nations' World Food Program warns about a looming food crisis in
Ukraine in conflict areas, while disruptions in production and exports could
lead to food insecurity globally.
Cease-fire attempt in Ukraine fails amid Russian
shelling
YURAS KARMANAU/Sat., March 5, 2022/ Ukraine (AP)
The first cease-fire attempted in Ukraine to evacuate desperate civilians
collapsed Saturday amid ongoing shelling as Russian and Ukrainian officials
traded blame and Moscow tightened its grip on the war-battered country's
strategic seacoast.
The struggle to enforce the temporary cease-fire in the southeastern port of
Mariupol and the eastern city of Volnovakha showed the fragility of efforts to
stop the fighting across Ukraine as the number of people fleeing the country
reached 1.4 million just 10 days after Russian forces invaded.
Ukrainian officials said Russian artillery fire and airstrikes had prevented
residents from leaving before the agreed-to evacuations got underway. Russian
President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of sabotaging the effort and claimed
the actions of Ukraine's leadership called into question the future of the
country's statehood. “If this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience,”
Putin said. Earlier, the Russian defense ministry said it had agreed with
Ukraine on evacuation routes out of the two cities. Before the announcement,
Russia's days-long assault had caused growing misery in Mariupol, where AP
journalists witnessed doctors make unsuccessful attempts to save the lives of
wounded children, pharmacies ran bare and hundreds of thousands of people faced
food and water shortages in freezing weather. In comments carried on Ukrainian
television, Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said thousands of residents had
gathered for safe passage out of the city when shelling began Saturday. “We
value the life of every inhabitant of Mariupol and we cannot risk it, so we
stopped the evacuation,” he said. In recent days, Ukraine had urged Moscow to
create humanitarian corridors to allow children, women and the older adults to
flee the fighting, calling them “question No. 1.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy held out the possibility that talks with Russia could result in a
sustained, if limited ceasefire Saturday. Elsewhere in the country, Ukrainian
forces were holding key cities in central and southeastern Ukraine, while the
Russians were trying to keep Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Sumy encircled, he
said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday said Russia was ready for a
third round of talks on that and other issues, but he asserted that “the
Ukrainian side, the most interested side here, it would seem, is constantly
making up various pretexts to delay the beginning of another meeting.”
Diplomatic efforts continued as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived
in Poland to meet with the prime minister and foreign minister, a day after
attending a NATO meeting in Brussels in which the alliance pledged to step up
support for eastern flank members.
In the wake of Western sanctions, Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship state-owned
airline, announced that it plans to halt all international flights. except to
Belarus, starting Tuesday. At least 351 civilians have been confirmed killed
since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, but the true number is probably
much higher, the U.N. human rights office has said. Zelenskyy said Saturday that
that 10,000 Russian troops had died in the war, a claim that could not be
independently verified. “We’re inflicting losses on the occupants they could not
see in their worst nightmare,” the Ukrainian leader said.
The Russian military, which doesn't offer regular updates on casualties, said
Wednesday that 498 of its troops had been killed.
Ukraine's military might is vastly outmatched by Russia's, but its military and
volunteer forces have fought back with fierce tenacity since the invasion. Even
in cities that have fallen to the Russians, there were signs of resistance.
Onlookers in Chernihiv cheered as they watched a Russian military plane fall
from the sky and crash, according to video released Saturday by the Ukrainian
government. In Kherson, hundreds of people protested the invasion, shouting, “Go
home.” A vast Russian armored column threatening Ukraine’s capital remained
stalled outside Kyiv. Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said the
military situation was more quiet overall Saturday and Russian forces “have not
taken active actions since the morning.” While the shelling in Mariupol showed
Russia’s determination to cut Ukraine off from access to the Black Sea and the
Sea of Azov, further damaging the country’s economy, it was Putin who was most
on the offensive with his comments warning that a no fly zone would be
considered a hostile act. NATO has said it has no plans to implement such a no
fly zone, which would bar all unauthorized aircraft from flying over Ukraine.
Western officials have said a main reason is a desire to not widen the war
beyond Ukraine. Zelenskyy has pleaded for a no-fly zone over his country and
lashed out at NATO for refusing to impose one, warning that “all the people who
die from this day forward will also die because of you.”
But as the United States and other NATO members send weapons for Kyiv, the
conflict is already drawing in countries far beyond Ukraine’s borders. As Russia
cracks down on independent media reporting on the war, more major international
news outlets said they were pausing their work there. Putin said nothing
warrants imposing martial law at this point. And in a warning of a hunger crisis
yet to come, the U.N. World Food Program has said millions of people inside
Ukraine, a major global wheat supplier, will need food aid
“immediately.”Ukraine’s president was set to brief U.S. senators Saturday by
video conference as Congress considers a request for $10 billion in emergency
funding for humanitarian aid and security needs. The U.N. Security Council
scheduled an open meeting for Monday on the worsening humanitarian situation.
The United Nations estimates that 12 million people in Ukraine and 4 million
fleeing to neighboring countries in the coming months will need humanitarian
aid. Kyiv’s central train station remained crowded with people desperate to
flee. “People just want to live,” one woman, Ksenia, said. Elsewhere in the
capital, in a sign of nerves near breaking point, two people on a sidewalk froze
in their tracks at the sound of a sharp bang. It was a garbage truck upending a
bin.
Ukraine Says Mariupol Evacuation Delayed by Russian
Ceasefire Violations
Agence France Presse/March 5, 2022/
Officials in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, surrounded by Russian forces,
said Saturday they were delaying an evacuation of the civilian population,
accusing Moscow's troops of breaking a ceasefire. "Due to the fact that the
Russian side does not adhere to the ceasefire and has continued shelling both of
Mariupol itself and its environs and for security reasons, the evacuation of the
civilian population has been postponed," city officials said in a statement on
social media. Mariupol, a southern city of about 450,000 people on the Azov Sea,
was scheduled to begin the evacuations at 0900 GMT, after Russian forces agreed
a ceasefire to allow civilians to leave the fighting. "We ask all Mariupol
residents to disperse and head to places where they can shelter. More
information about the evacuation will be posted soon," municipal officials
wrote. "At the moment, negotiations are underway with Russia to establish a
ceasefire and ensure a safe humanitarian corridor," the statement added.
Russia's defense ministry later accused Ukraine nationalists in Mariupol and
Volnovakha -- a town of 20,000 people near the rebel center of Donetsk -- of
blocking Ukrainians from leaving towards Russia. "The same is happening in
Kharkiv and Sumy, as well as in a number of other settlements," the defense
ministry said in a statement, referring to two other cities in eastern Ukraine
at the center of fighting. It also said it had respected the ceasefire and
accused Ukrainian forces of shoring up defenses during the halt in fighting.
EU Suspends Russia, Belarus from Council of Baltic Sea
States
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The European Union said it had joined members of the Council of the Baltic Sea
States (CBSS) in suspending Russia and Belarus from the Council's activities.
"This decision is a part of the European Union’s and like-minded partners
response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the involvement of Belarus in this
unprovoked and unjustified aggression," it said on Saturday. "The EU agrees with
the other members of the CBSS (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland,
Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Sweden) that the suspension of Russia and
Belarus will remain in force until it is possible to resume cooperation based on
respect for fundamental principles of international law," it added. Since
President Vladimir Putin's army invaded on February 24, Russia has pummeled
Ukrainian cities, killed hundreds of civilians and assaulted Europe's largest
atomic power plant. The invasion has drawn condemnation and severe sanctions
from Western nations balancing punishment of the Kremlin with fears of a
hazardous escalation.
Russian Defense Ministry: Ceasefire to Let Mariupol Residents Evacuate
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
Russia's defense ministry announced a ceasefire Saturday to allow residents of
two besieged cities, including the strategic port city of Mariupol, to evacuate.
"Today, March 5, from 10 am Moscow time, the Russian side declares a regime of
silence and opens humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilians from Mariupol
and Volnovakha," it said.The announcement comes after Mariupol's mayor Vadim
Boychenko said Saturday that the city was under "blockade" by Russian forces
after days of "ruthless" attacks. While laying siege to Mariupol for days,
Russian forces have cut its electricity, food, water, heating and transportation
in the depths of winter, prompting comparisons to the Nazi blockade of Leningrad
in World War II, AFP reported. "For now, we are looking for solutions to
humanitarian problems and all possible ways to get Mariupol out of the
blockade," said Boychenko, calling for a ceasefire and a humanitarian corridor
for food and medicine. Since President Vladimir Putin's army invaded on February
24, Russia has pummeled Ukrainian cities, killed hundreds of civilians and
assaulted Europe's largest atomic power plant. The invasion has drawn
condemnation and severe sanctions from Western nations balancing punishment of
the Kremlin with fears of a hazardous escalation.
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Statement
March 4, 2022 – Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Statement from the Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan,
the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High
Representative of the European Union:
We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of
the European Union reiterate our profound condemnation of Russia’s unprovoked
and unjustifiable war of choice against Ukraine, enabled by the Belarussian
government.
Russia must immediately stop its ongoing assault against Ukraine, which has
dramatically impacted the civilian population and destroyed civilian
infrastructure, and immediately withdraw Russia’s military forces. With its
further aggression, President Putin has isolated Russia in the world, as
evidenced by the overwhelming vote at the United Nations General Assembly
condemning Russia’s aggression and calling upon it to withdraw its forces
immediately.
We express our heart-felt solidarity with the Ukrainian people and our sympathy
with the victims of this war and their families. We underline our unwavering
support for Ukraine, its freely-elected government and its brave people at this
most difficult time, and express our readiness to assist them further.
We condemn the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian
infrastructure, including schools and hospitals. We call on Russia to uphold its
obligation to fully respect international humanitarian law and human rights law.
Ukrainian and UN humanitarian agencies, medical personnel, and non-governmental
assistance providers must be given safe, rapid and unimpeded access to people in
need immediately throughout the entire territory of Ukraine within its
internationally recognized borders. We acknowledge the announcement of an
arrangement on humanitarian access as an important first step. This will need to
be implemented reliably and swiftly. We commit to increasing humanitarian
support, as the needs of the Ukrainian people grow due to Russia’s aggression.
We urge Russia to stop its attacks especially in the direct vicinity of
Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Any armed attack on and threat against nuclear
facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the
principles of international law. We support the initiative of IAEA Director
General Grossi announced today for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to
ensure the safety and security of nuclear facilities in Ukraine.
We are deeply concerned with the catastrophic humanitarian toll taken by
Russia’s continuing strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine’s cities.
We reemphasize that indiscriminate attacks are prohibited by international
humanitarian law. We will hold accountable those responsible for war crimes,
including indiscriminate use of weapons against civilians, and we welcome the
ongoing work to investigate and gather evidence, including by the Prosecutor of
the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Russia’s blatant violation of the fundamental principles of international peace
and security and the breach of international law have not gone unanswered. We
have imposed several rounds of far-reaching economic and financial sanctions. We
will continue to impose further severe sanctions in response to Russian
aggression, enabled by the Lukashenka regime in Belarus. We wish to make clear
to the Russian and Belarusian people that the severe sanctions imposed on Russia
and Belarus are a consequence of and clear reaction to President Putin’s
unprovoked and unjustifiable war against Ukraine. President Putin, and his
government and supporters, and the Lukashenka regime, bear full responsibility
for the economic and social consequences of these sanctions. We condemn the
widespread use of disinformation by the Russian Government and its affiliated
media and proxies to support its military aggression against Ukraine. Their
steady stream of fabricated claims is putting additional lives at risk. We
commit to countering Russia’s disinformation campaign. We reaffirm our support
and commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity
of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its
territorial waters. We underline that any purported change of status achieved by
Russia’s renewed aggression will not be recognized.
The US envoy to Yemen and the Chargé d’Affaires of the
US Embassy
Riyadh - Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
A US delegation discussed in Yemen the country’s security, economic and
development needs, as well as efforts to combat terrorism and illegal smuggling.
US Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking and Chargé d’Affaires for the US Embassy in the
country Cathy Westley conducted a visit to the governorates of Shabwa, Hadramaut
and Mahra. On a rare visit to the southeastern Shabwa governorate on Thursday,
Lenderking and Westley discussed with the governor, Awad Al-Awlaki, developments
on the economic and security levels, in the presence of officials from the Arab
Coalition for the Support of Legitimacy in Yemen. Local sources told Asharq Al-Awsat
that the US delegation “focused on the security aspect, achieving security and
stability, and combating terrorism.”Speaking on condition of anonymity, the
sources said: “The visit represented support for the governor’s efforts and
followed a previous meeting with the chargé d’affaires of the embassy, which
took place via video call.” Earlier this year, the Southern Giants Brigades
liberated three districts northwest of Shabwa from the grip of the Houthi
militia, and advanced towards southern Marib, liberating the Harib district,
before stopping at that point. According to the same sources, the US side
stressed the importance of “unifying military and security units, completing the
implementation of the Riyadh Agreement, and enabling the security and military
forces to achieve security and stability.”The US State Department released a
statement, saying that Lenderking and Westley concluded their visit to Yemen,
during which they met with the Governors of Hadhramaut, Mahra, and Shabwa. “The
visit highlighted how Yemenis across the country – even those far from the
frontlines – are suffering from years of political and economic instability. It
provided an opportunity to discuss the needs in these governorates and efforts
to strengthen basic services, economic opportunity, and security, which would
allow peace to take root. This visit to Yemen also emphasized the continued
challenges posed by terrorism and smuggling, which feed instability,” the
statement read. It continued: “The US delegation stressed its support for an
inclusive UN-led peace process that incorporates the views of diverse Yemeni
groups, including those from Hadhramaut, Mahra, and Shabwa, as well as women,
civil society leaders, and representatives of other traditionally marginalized
groups.” The US State Department also noted that the visit to Yemen emphasized
the importance of the international community continuing to support economic
stability and humanitarian relief efforts.
Dozens of Soldiers Killed in Attack on Military Camp in
Mali
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
A militant attack on a military camp in central Mali on Friday killed 27
soldiers and 47 "terrorists" were "neutralized", the country's army said, AFP
reported. The fighting left 33 soldiers injured, 21 seriously, and seven are
missing, the army added in a statement, while 23 other suspects were
"neutralized" later in the day. The West African state has been battling
militant movements affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group for almost a
decade, with around two-thirds of its territory outside state control. A French
military source speaking on condition of anonymity said hundreds of militants
attacked the camp of around 150 soldiers close to 0600 GMT, putting the death
toll between 40 and 50. Mali's army said the attack happened around 0530 GMT.
The militants seized 21 vehicles, including tanks, and injured more than 20
soldiers, the source added.
The source said Mali's army did not request support from France's Barkhane
military operation because the camp was "where Barkhane was asked not to
operate, probably because of the presence of Wagner mercenaries", referring to
the Russian paramilitary group.
A military official had told AFP the army and air force "reacted vigorously".
The Mondoro base is near Mali's border with Burkina Faso and has previously been
targeted by militants fighting the Malian state and foreign forces. Around 50
soldiers died after an attack on Mondoro and the nearby Boulkessi camp in
September 2019. France's military said around 100 attackers were "routed"
following a mission between Barkhane and Mali's army against militants
attempting to take the base in January 2021. Militant and separatist fighters --
some affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group -- began operations in Mali in
2012 and the conflict has since spread to neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso,
killing and displacing thousands of civilians. Friday's attack comes as the
military landscape in the Sahel shifts following France's decision to withdraw
from Mali and the arrival of Russian instructors, which the West says are Wagner
mercenaries. Diplomatic relations between Bamako's military junta and Paris have
deteriorated in recent months as West Africa's regional bloc imposed harsh
sanctions on the Malian government's delay to return to civilian rule.
N.Korea Conducts Ninth Missile Test in 2022
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
North Korea conducted its ninth weapons test of the year on Saturday, firing a
suspected ballistic missile toward the sea to the east of the Korean peninsula
just days before South Korea's presidential election. The launch drew
condemnation from governments in the United States, South Korea, and Japan,
which fear the North is preparing to conduct a major weapons test in coming
months. With denuclearization talks stalled, North Korea conducted a record
number of missile launches in January, and after a pause for most of February,
resumed tests with a launch on Feb. 27. It appears to be preparing to launch a
spy satellite in the near future, and has suggested it could resume testing of
nuclear weapons or its longest range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
for the first time since 2017. "The significant pace at which North Korea is
developing its missile-launching technology is not something our country and the
surrounding regions can overlook," Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said
after the latest launch, Reuters reported.
In South Korea, where citizens are already casting early votes ahead of
Wednesday's presidential election, the National Security Council (NSC) condemned
North Korea's "unprecedented repeated firing of ballistic missiles" as going
against peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea will "even more closely monitor North Korea's nuclear and
missile-related facilities" including its main nuclear reactor facility at
Yongbyon and the Punggye-ri nuclear weapons test side, the NSC said, according
to a statement from the presidential Blue House.
It was not immediately clear what prompted the increased monitoring of the
nuclear sites. On Friday, the US-based 38 North project, which monitors North
Korea, said operations at Yongbyon are in full swing, producing fuel for
potential nuclear weapons and an expansion of its nuclear production facilities.
Punggye-ri has been shuttered since North Korea declared a self-imposed
moratorium on nuclear weapons tests in 2018. Leader Kim Jong Un, however, has
said he no longer feels bound by that moratorium as denuclearization talks are
stalled.
South Korea has reported a series of small, natural earthquakes near Punggye-ri
this year, highlighting what experts say is geological instability caused by the
last and largest nuclear test in 2017. Experts have also said that instability
would not necessarily prevent North Korea from resuming tests at the site.
The US State Department condemned the latest launch as a violation of United
Nations Security Council resolutions, which have imposed sanctions on North
Korea over its weapons programs. The launch demonstrates the threat that North
Korea's illicit weapons of mass destruction and missile programs pose to the its
neighbors and the region as a whole, a State Department spokesperson said. The
South Korean military said Saturday's launch came from a location near Sunan,
where Pyongyang's international airport is located. The region has been the site
of previous tests, including the last launch on Feb. 27, when North Korea said
it tested systems for a reconnaissance satellite. Kishi said the North Korean
projectile reached a height of 550 km (340 miles) and flew 300 km (190 miles),
similar to the South Korean military's estimate of 560 km height and 270 km
distance.
The launch underscores the challenges facing whoever wins Wednesday's
presidential election in South Korea. Both leading candidates have said they
would unveil roadmaps to try to jumpstart stalled talks, but have also raised
the prospect of a harder line ranging from more openly calling the North's
missile tests "provocations" to developing more military capacity for preemptive
strikes if necessary to counter an imminent threat. Analysts say North Korea
could use the upcoming presidential transition in South Korea or a big national
holiday on April 15 to launch a satellite or test fire a major new missile or
other weapon. "The timing of North Korea's missile testing may seem odd to us,
given the global focus on Ukraine," Jean Lee, a fellow at the Washington-based
Wilson Center, said on Twitter. "But it makes perfect sense in North Korea,
where scientists are focused on perfect new weapons for Kim to show off at a big
military parade in mid-April." The United States has said it is open to talks
without preconditions, but Pyongyang says talks are only possible after
Washington and its allies drop hostile policies.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
March 05-06/2022
Question: "What are the different types of fasting?"
GotQuestions.org?/March 06/2022
Answer: Usually, fasting is the abstaining from food for a certain period of
time. There are different types of fasting in the Bible, however, and not all of
them involve food. Many people in the Bible fasted, including Moses, David, and
Daniel in the Old Testament and Anna, Paul, and Jesus Christ in the New
Testament. Many important figures in Christian history attested to fasting’s
value, as do many Christians today.
Biblical fasting is often closely linked to repentance, as in the examples of
David, the nation of Israel, and the city of Nineveh. Fasting is also related to
passionate prayer, as in the examples of King Jehoshaphat and Queen Esther.
Biblical fasting comes from a humble heart seeking God (Isaiah 58:3–7). John
MacArthur comments on Isaiah 58: “The people complained when God did not
recognize their religious actions, but God responded that their fastings had
been only half-hearted. Hypocritical fasting resulted in contention, quarreling,
and pretense, excluding the possibility of genuine prayer to God. Fasting
consisted of more than just an outward ritual and a mock repentance, it involved
penitence over sin and consequent humility, disconnecting from sin and
oppression of others, feeding the hungry, and acting humanely toward those in
need.”
The regular fast is done by abstaining from all food, both solid and liquid,
except for water. This is the type of fasting Judah’s King Jehoshaphat called
for when his country was confronted with invasion (2 Chronicles 20:3). The Lord
defeated their enemies, and the men of Judah blessed the Lord (2 Chronicles
20:24–27). After the Babylonian Captivity, the people returning to Jerusalem
prayed and fasted, asking God for His protection on their journey (Ezra 8:21).
The Lord Jesus fasted during His forty days in the wilderness being tempted by
Satan (Luke 4:2). When Jesus was hungry, Satan tempted Him to turn the stones
into bread, to which Jesus replied, “Man shall not live by bread alone” (Luke
4:4).
Another type of biblical fasting is the partial fast. The prophet Daniel spent
three weeks fasting from certain foods. In Daniel 10, the prophet says, “I,
Daniel, mourned for three weeks. I ate no choice food; no meat or wine touched
my lips; and I used no lotions at all until the three weeks were over” (Daniel
10:2–3). Note that Daniel’s fast to express his grief on this occasion only
omitted “choice” food, and it also involved relinquishing the use of oils and
“lotions” for refreshment. Today, many Christians follow this example and
abstain from certain foods or activities for a short time, looking to the Lord
for their comfort and strength.
Also mentioned in the Bible is the absolute fast, or the full fast, where no
food or water is consumed. When Esther discovered the plan for all the Jews to
be killed in Persia, she and her fellow Jews fasted from food and water for
three days before she entered the king’s courts to ask for his mercy (Esther
4:16). Another example of an absolute fast is found in the story of Saul’s
conversion. The murderous Saul encountered Jesus in His glory on the road to
Damascus. “For three days he was blind, and did not eat or drink anything” (Acts
9:9). Immediately following that time of blindness and fasting, Saul dedicated
his life to preaching Jesus Christ.
In the cases of Esther and Saul, the absolute fast only lasted three days.
However, Moses and Elijah took part in miraculous, forty-day absolute fasts.
When Moses met God on the mountaintop to receive the tablets of stone, he ate no
bread and drank no water (Deuteronomy 9:9). And, after Elijah defeated the
prophets of Baal on Mt. Carmel, infuriating Queen Jezebel, Elijah fled for his
life and spent forty days of fasting in the wilderness (1 Kings 19).
The Bible also mentions a sexual fast, although not by that name. In Exodus
19:15, the people of Israel were to prepare for their encounter with the Lord at
Mt. Sinai, and part of their preparation was to abstain from sexual relations
for three days. And in 1 Corinthians 7:5 Paul says that a married couple can
mutually agree to abstain from sex for a short period of time in order to devote
themselves to prayer. But then they are to “come together again so that Satan
will not tempt you because of your lack of self-control.”
The purpose of fasting is not to get God to respond as a genie in a bottle to
grant our every wish. Fasting, whether it is regular, partial, absolute, or
sexual, is a seeking after God’s heart, all other blessings and benefits being
secondary to God Himself. This is what sets apart biblical fasting from other
religious and cultural practices around the world.
Putin Is Making a Mockery of the United Nations/The Biden
administration must finally recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot
do.
Richard Goldberg and John Hardie/The Dispatch/March 05/2022 |
Members of the U.N. Security Council sat around a table in New York last week,
pleading with Moscow to call off its assault on Ukraine. Ambassador after
ambassador took turns vowing Russia would be isolated on the world stage for
such a blatant violation of international law. Some even warned the U.N. would
suffer the fate of its failed predecessor, the League of Nations. One hour into
debate, Vladimir Putin announced a full-scale invasion.
The meeting was surreal, and not just because the entire proceeding was chaired
by Russia, which held the Security Council’s rotating presidency in February.
The imbroglio exposed as hollow the mistaken belief—far too common in Western
nations, including here in the United States—that public shaming in multilateral
organizations can deter ruthless dictators bent on war. Indeed, Putin announced
the beginning of Russia’s invasion just as the U.S. ambassador to the U.N.,
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, delivered her speech urging Russia to de-escalate.
Moments later, Russian missiles began raining down on Kyiv and other Ukrainian
cities.
Of course, this is hardly the first time Russia has made a mockery of an
institution established to defend international peace and security. Russia also
routinely wields its Security Council veto to shield itself and other rogue
regimes from international accountability, for example by blocking U.N.
sanctions against Syria’s Assad regime for its use of chemical weapons against
its own people.
Indeed, last week’s meeting was just the latest reminder of how Russia, China,
and other U.S. adversaries flout international law while simultaneously
manipulating international organizations to serve their narrow ends.
Unfortunately, despite having proclaimed engagement at the U.N. to be an
important plank of its foreign policy agenda, the Biden administration’s
international-organizations strategy is broken.
“Diplomacy is back at the center of our foreign policy,” President Biden
declared shortly after taking office. Yet when it comes to the U.N. system, U.S.
diplomacy needs to do a better job of defending American interests and values.
The U.N. Human Rights Council is case in point. In 2019, Secretary-General
António Guterres appointed a former Russian government official to be the
director-general of the U.N. office in Geneva. That mission is also home to the
Human Rights Council — a deeply flawed body to which Russia was elected in 2020
despite an abysmal human rights record that has only worsened since.
This irony may soon become even grimmer. A recent U.S. letter to the U.N. high
commissioner for human rights, whose office serves as the UNHRC’s secretariat,
warned that Russian forces “are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be
killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.” The Russians also
“will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise
counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,”
the letter said. The International Criminal Court’s top prosecutor says there’s
already “a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes
against humanity have been committed in Ukraine.”
Nevertheless, when Kyiv requested an emergency UNHRC debate on February 24, the
council didn’t hold the meeting until March 3, in order to “be as non-disruptive
as possible to [its] programme of work.” As human rights activist Hillel Neuer
noted, the council has previously convened emergency debates on the same
day—when the crisis in question involved criticizing Israel.
Yet instead of recognizing the UNHRC is broken, Biden rejoined the council
earlier this year, pledging to reform it from within. Last month, a State
Department spokesperson declared that the council “plays a crucial role in
promoting respect for human rights as well as fundamental freedoms around the
world.”
Although Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield has called for Russia to be isolated at
the United Nations, the Biden administration last week issued a list of
exemptions to Russia’s supposed diplomatic isolation. At the top of the list:
U.S. diplomats are authorized to keep working with Russia at the U.N., other
international organizations and in multilateral settings like the Iran nuclear
talks.
The UNHRC isn’t the only organization where Moscow enjoys influence. For
example, Russia serves on the executive board of the United Nations Educational,
Scientific and Cultural Organization, which Biden wants to rejoin this year and
subsidize with a taxpayer check for $500 million. Moscow also sits on the
decision-making council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, while
a former Russian nuclear utility official serves as deputy director general and
head of the department of nuclear energy at the International Atomic Energy
Agency. A longtime Russian diplomat currently serves as U.N.
under-secretary-general for counterterrorism. These posts add to Russia’s
international prestige and, in some cases, give its officials access to
sensitive information.
Russia, meanwhile, is running Rashid Ismailov, a former Russian government
official and executive at China’s Huawei, to become the next director general of
the International Telecommunication Union, a key standard-setting body for the
internet, 5G, and other digital technologies. If he wins, Ismailov would be
well-positioned to support Moscow’s longstanding efforts to reduce U.S.
influence in internet governance and shape international norms pertaining to
cybersecurity.
As Russian forces march deeper into Ukraine, now is the time for Washington to
fix its international-organizations strategy.
The U.S. and its allies need a comprehensive, coordinated strategy to advance
the interests of free nations within these organizations while countering the
corrosive influence of Russia and China. U.S. leadership will be critical, as
many other countries will be reluctant to confront Moscow and Beijing. Indeed,
while the U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution this week deploring Russian
“aggression against Ukraine,” it amounted to little more than a strongly worded
letter, recommending no consequences for Russia’s actions.
Congress, meanwhile, must better calculate the costs and benefits of providing
billions of dollars to agencies manipulated by U.S. adversaries—and wield its
power of the purse accordingly. And the Biden administration must finally
recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot do.
An international system that Putin and other dictators can flout or corrupt with
impunity is doomed to fail. So is an American international-organizations
strategy that mistakes “engagement” for results and relies on corrupted
institutions to defend itself and its democratic allies. That reality was laid
bare the minute Russia invaded Ukraine.
*Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council official, is a senior
adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where John Hardie is
research manager and analyst. Follow Richard on Twitter @rich_goldberg. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
Iran Approaches the Nuclear Threshold /Washington’s
Narrowing Policy Options
Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero/Memo/March 05/2022 |
The clerical regime in Iran is approaching the point at which no outside power
could prevent it from building nuclear weapons. Iran would then be a nuclear
threshold state. As Tehran approaches that threshold, the United States will
face an increasingly difficult choice between allowing the regime to cross over
it or taking assertive measures — including potential military strikes — to stop
Iran from going nuclear.
In an effort to revive a watered-down version of the 2015 nuclear deal with
Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the
Biden administration has relaxed pressure on the Islamic Republic and fully
committed itself to negotiations.1 Senior U.S. officials have criticized Iranian
negotiators for obstructionism and delay, but the administration does not
acknowledge that by drawing out the talks, Tehran can position itself to reach
the nuclear threshold.2 At present, if the regime decides to make its first
nuclear weapon, it may need as little as three weeks to produce enough fissile
material.3
This memorandum documents the acceleration of Tehran’s nuclear program since Joe
Biden’s election.4 The clerical regime understands that it can provoke the
United States at minimal cost, since Biden is committed to a conciliatory policy
that relies on goodwill, not leverage, to advance negotiations. To reverse this
dynamic, the United States and its European partners will have to discard the
JCPOA framework and implement a full-spectrum pressure campaign that confronts
Tehran with the prospect of bankruptcy and isolation unless it relinquishes all
pathways to a nuclear weapons capability.
Defining Threshold Status
To reach the nuclear threshold, a state requires fissile material and the
ability to weaponize it. In addition, a threshold state must be able to dash to
nuclear weapons quickly enough that foreign powers would not be able to disrupt
its breakout efforts.5
The Islamic Republic has already enriched enough uranium that it could produce
weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for at least four bombs. The short dash to producing
WGU shows that Tehran has overcome the most difficult challenge that faces an
aspiring threshold state. If Iran decided to produce WGU, the clerical regime
would likely need additional time to build a functional warhead, but the
technical challenges are not prohibitive given the regime’s past and possibly
ongoing weaponization work. Iran is also expanding its ballistic missile
program, which it could adapt for use as delivery vehicles.
Behavior and intentions often distinguish aspiring threshold states from latent
powers. Several states, like Germany, Brazil, and the Netherlands, produce
fissile material and could launch a nuclear weapons program, but have chosen
instead to adhere firmly to their non-proliferation commitments. Scholars refer
to this group as latent nuclear states.6 Tehran, by contrast, has pursued
clandestine enrichment and weaponization programs, indicating a lack of peaceful
intent.7 The Iranian program is also the subject of an ongoing investigation by
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which Tehran persistently
obstructs.
Iran is currently the only state actively advancing toward threshold status.8
The IAEA has investigated Tehran’s nuclear activities since 2002 but has never
been able to assure the international community of the absence of undeclared
nuclear material and activities in Iran. The Islamic Republic had a nuclear
weapons program known as the Amad Plan until 2003, after which the clerical
regime planned to downsize and disperse parts of the program to better
camouflage it.9 Tehran likely continued weaponization activities at both
civilian and military institutions. The entity reportedly in charge of such
efforts is the U.S.-sanctioned Organization of Defense Innovation and Research,
whose Persian acronym is SPND.10 Given the regime’s obstruction of IAEA
inspections, it is not known how close Iran has come to weaponization.
Determining the point at which a state reaches the threshold is not a purely
technical exercise, since it also depends on the intent of a government —
specifically, whether it has decided to pursue a weapons program or whether
ambiguity offers the government better advantages. Another factor is the
defensive measures in place to protect the program and the offensive
capabilities of those who wish to disrupt it. U.S. military leaders have
expressed readiness to destroy the clerical regime’s nuclear capabilities if the
president directed them to do so, but the estimated time necessary to carry out
such a mission remains classified.11
Additional uncertainty stems from the potential for incomplete intelligence
reporting about a potential decision by Tehran to pursue a breakout. States may
gather information indicating that Iran has begun producing WGU, yet the
intelligence may be vague or unreliable overall, including key details about
timing and the facilities that Tehran would use. In such a scenario, Iran may
restrict IAEA monitoring or delay IAEA access to declared nuclear sites in order
to divert fissile material for further enrichment at a clandestine plant. The
regime could also pursue enrichment and weaponization at highly fortified
military sites. For example, it could make WGU at its underground Fordow
enrichment plant.
The JCPOA: Iran’s Patient Pathway to the Nuclear Threshold
The imperative of keeping Tehran away from the nuclear threshold drove the Obama
administration’s negotiation of the JCPOA, even though the administration’s
efforts were ultimately insufficient. U.S. negotiators sought to ensure that
Iran would remain at least 12 months away from producing enough fissile material
for a nuclear weapon. Independent calculations put Iran’s breakout time under
the JCPOA closer to seven months.12 Yet even this achievement would be
temporary; the scheduled expiration (or “sunset”) of the JCPOA’s key
restrictions would eventually bring Tehran’s breakout time close to zero.
Details aside, the JCPOA legitimized Iran’s advance toward the nuclear threshold
despite the regime’s extensive record of illicit nuclear activities. Previously,
there had been an international consensus enshrined in UN Security Council
resolutions that Iran should stop enriching uranium completely.13 The JCPOA not
only allowed the Islamic Republic to maintain an enrichment program with a
breakout time of 12 months or less, but also paved the way toward a breakout
time of zero, since restrictions on enrichment would gradually phase out from
2024 to 2031. Nor did the JCPOA prohibit Iran from carrying out research and
development on advanced centrifuges, stockpiling materiel and equipment for
advanced machine production, and, in 2027, enriching uranium in large numbers of
advanced centrifuges.14
Under the terms of the JCPOA, Iran could also manufacture up to 2,400 of its
fastest advanced centrifuges — the IR-6 and IR-8 — by 2029. In 2025, the
“snapback” mechanism that permits JCPOA member states to reimpose prior UN
Security Council sanctions on Iran is slated to terminate; Iran would be freed
from international oversight of its nuclear-related imports. All told, the
nuclear accord ensures that by 2031, when the last of its sunsets takes effect,
Iran would have a massive enrichment capability and an unstoppable ability to
break out of its nonproliferation commitments or even sneak out by using nuclear
assets at covert facilities, undetected by international monitors.15
The JCPOA prohibited weaponization activities, but the deal’s weak monitoring
and verification provisions made this irrelevant. The Islamic Republic insisted
it would never allow inspections of its military facilities, regardless of what
the deal stated. Neither the IAEA nor other parties to the deal challenged this
assertion. The Obama administration and its JCPOA partners also quashed the
IAEA’s ongoing investigation of Tehran’s previous nuclear weapons activities.
The deal even left intact the fortified underground enrichment facility at
Fordow, designed to protect Iran’s nuclear program during a potential dash
toward the threshold and beyond. Under the JCPOA, Tehran’s economic and military
power was set to grow in the absence of sanctions, further adding to the
difficulty of keeping it away from the nuclear threshold.
Iran’s Muted Response to Trump, Escalation of Pressure on Biden
In May 2018, citing, among other objections, the JCPOA’s failure to stop Iran’s
nuclear research and development, President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal.
Tehran responded with graduated, incremental nuclear advances.16 In May 2019,
the regime announced a plan to incrementally surpass JCPOA limits on a range of
nuclear activities, with new advances every 90 days. The clerical regime began
installing more and different types of centrifuges than permitted by the JCPOA,
gradually increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, and increased uranium
enrichment to 4.5 percent purity — exceeding the deal’s cap of 3.67 percent.
These incremental steps continued through the U.S. presidential election in
November 2020.17
The regime likely refrained from major advances to preserve the option of
reviving the nuclear deal under a future administration. Tehran may also have
wanted to avoid provoking a crisis during Trump’s tenure, given his
unpredictability and his readiness to impose harsh economic sanctions.18 The
value of patience also became clear when Biden pledged as a presidential
candidate to reverse Trump’s Iran policy, which Biden characterized as a
“dangerous failure.” Instead, Biden proposed that both Washington and Tehran
return to the JCPOA, a move that would yield relief for Tehran from the most
punishing U.S. sanctions.19
The clerical regime began testing Biden even before he formally took office. In
January 2021, Iran began enriching uranium to 20 percent purity at the Fordow
enrichment plant. Enrichment to 20 percent requires 90 percent of the effort to
reach weapons-grade purity. In February, Tehran began producing uranium metal, a
material used in the cores of nuclear weapons. That same month, the Islamic
Republic stopped implementing the IAEA’s Additional Protocol (AP), a set of
enhanced verification measures integral to the agency’s monitoring of nuclear
programs. Tehran had agreed to implement the AP as part of the JCPOA. The regime
also halted most JCPOA monitoring measures. In April, Iran started enriching
uranium to the highest level ever achieved by the regime: 60 percent. This level
constitutes 99 percent of the effort necessary to produce WGU.20
These unmistakable moves toward a nuclear weapons capability should have
provoked a strong reaction from the Biden administration and the IAEA’s Board of
Governors, which has responsibility for holding member states accountable to
their nuclear nonproliferation obligations. The United States and its key allies
hold seats on the board. Yet the Biden administration made sure the board would
not punish or even censure Iran at any of its quarterly meetings in 2021.21
Tehran saw that it could advance with impunity toward threshold status.
In November 2021, the Institute for Science and International Security assessed
that following a decision to produce enough WGU for one nuclear weapon, Iran
could do so within three weeks by further enriching — using currently operating
centrifuges — its stockpile of near-20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium.
Within three-and-a-half months, the institute found, Iran could produce enough
material for three weapons, and after six months, it would have enough WGU for a
fourth.22 By prolonging negotiations in Vienna, the Islamic Republic brought its
breakout time close to zero while earning billions of dollars from oil exports
thanks to Biden’s relaxation of sanctions as a goodwill gesture.
The U.S. negotiating team now acknowledges that restoring the JCPOA’s breakout
time of 7-12 months is no longer feasible, given Iran’s advances.23 Washington
reportedly estimates a breakout time of six-to-nine months under a revived
accord, while Israel’s estimate is reportedly four-to-six months.24 These lower
estimates are likely based on Tehran’s production and operation of hundreds of
advanced centrifuge machines in violation of the JCPOA.25
Tehran reportedly refuses to destroy these advanced centrifuges as part of a new
agreement, instead proposing their retention in storage, from which the regime
could remove them at any time. If the Biden administration accepts that demand
as part of its bid to revive a watered-down JCPOA, the administration would
solidify a shorter breakout time for Tehran. This timeline could shorten further
as Iran, per the JCPOA’s terms, manufactures and operates additional advanced
centrifuges.26
In fact, the administration’s reason for not demanding that Iran destroy
advanced centrifuges likely stems from the fact that the JCPOA permits their
redeployment in just a few years. Moreover, because of Iran’s reduction of the
IAEA’s monitoring, the Biden administration cannot assert with confidence that
Tehran does not have clandestine stockpiles of advanced centrifuges that it
could deploy to a covert enrichment facility. With its deficient monitoring and
verification protocols, the JCPOA or an even weaker version is unlikely to
facilitate the IAEA’s detection of such activity.
Becoming a nuclear threshold state requires weaponization capabilities in
addition to fissile material. Iran’s stonewalling of the IAEA has ensured there
are no reliable estimates of its weaponization timeline. David Albright of the
Institute for Science and International Security calculates that Tehran could
explode its first crude nuclear test device within six months.27 The Islamic
Republic has also continued to develop potentially nuclear-capable missiles,
since the JCPOA imposes no restrictions on its missile program. According to
Israeli estimates, Iran may be able to field a missile-deliverable nuclear
weapon in one to two years.28
Policy Recommendations
Policy options narrow considerably when responding to a state that is advancing
rapidly toward the nuclear threshold. Only senior officials in the U.S.
government know how much time the Pentagon needs to prepare and carry out
sufficient military strikes to prevent Iran from successfully sprinting toward a
nuclear weapon. If the Islamic Republic chooses to move closer to threshold
status — or dash to nuclear weapons — there would likely be substantial
uncertainty surrounding its precise intentions and activities. In such a
scenario, Tehran may not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a
move that could solidify Western resolve against the regime. Amid this
uncertainty, President Biden might have to choose between carrying out military
strikes based on incomplete or conflicting information or acquiescing to Iran’s
development of nuclear weapons. It would be preferable to keep Tehran far away
from the threshold so that an American president never reaches this wrenching
decision point.
The Israeli response to the Vienna negotiations is revealing, given Tehran’s
professed interest in destroying the Jewish state. Jerusalem has at least as
strong an interest as Washington has in extending Iran’s nuclear breakout
timeline. Yet even as Tehran approaches the nuclear threshold, Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly told President Biden in February that Israel
prefers a no-deal scenario and a campaign of multilateral pressure on Tehran.29
Bennett almost certainly wants to avoid a rift in U.S.-Israel relations like the
one that emerged in 2015 when Israel opposed the JCPOA.30 Yet Bennett would
still reject a deal that temporarily increased Iran’s breakout time, only to let
it approach zero once again after a few years, which would be all but inevitable
with the deal’s expiring provisions.31
The flawed premise of the JCPOA and of the Biden administration’s Iran policy is
that Iran can both keep its uranium enrichment program — which the JCPOA allows
to expand again starting in 2024 and to grow substantially from 2027 to 2031 —
and be kept away from the nuclear weapons threshold.32 Instead of pursuing a
defective and temporary accord, the United States should seek to restore the
international consensus — embodied in successive UN Security Council resolutions
from 2006 to 2010 — that the world cannot trust the Islamic Republic with an
enrichment program.33 The regime’s relentless stonewalling of IAEA
investigations demonstrates its bad faith. Furthermore, an energy-rich country
like Iran has no economic need for an enrichment program. The purpose of Iran’s
enrichment program has always been to build nuclear weapons.34
If and when the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany)
recognize the need for a fundamental rethinking of their Iran policy, they
should relaunch the kind of comprehensive economic, financial, and political
pressure campaign that forced Iran back to the negotiating table during Barack
Obama’s tenure. This time, however, the campaign should persist until Tehran
accepts the dismantling of its enrichment program and related measures to
permanently cut off all pathways to a nuclear weapon. The Iranian economy has
begun a tentative recovery thanks to Biden’s relaxation of sanctions, but it
remains vulnerable after a deep multi-year recession.35 The United States and
the E3 should invite Russia and China to support their efforts, but only if they
accept the premise of a permanent end to the Iranian nuclear threat and do not
act as spoilers.
Even without Russian and Chinese support, the United States and the E3 can
restore prior UN sanctions by invoking the snapback clause of UN Security
Council Resolution 2231. Doing so would also restore all prior UN resolutions
against Iran, which codify the principle of zero enrichment. Restoring
multilateral sanctions would present Russia and China with a fait accompli
regarding sanctions enforcement and provide a basis for further action by the
United States and E3 to penalize non-compliance.
Congress can play an important role in encouraging the Biden administration to
support a renewed pressure campaign. From 2009 through 2012, a bipartisan
coalition in Congress played an indispensable role in creating the statutory
framework for the pressure campaign that forced Iran back to the negotiating
table. If there is renewed bipartisanship, Congress can prove similarly
effective once again.
The most potent tool currently at the disposal of Congress is the Iran Nuclear
Agreement Review Act of 2015, or INARA, which gives Congress statutory review
authority over any deal. Specifically, INARA requires the president to submit to
Congress within five days any agreement with Iran and “all related materials and
annexes.” There is then a 90-day review period during which the House and Senate
hold hearings on the agreement and then debate it.36 Finally, INARA ensures a
vote on whether to lift sanctions. Since the president can veto a resolution
prohibiting him from lifting sanctions, a two-thirds majority in both chambers
can block a deal. Thus, bipartisanship is essential. Even so, significant
opposition sends a clear message to Tehran that a deal may last only as long as
Biden remains in the White House.37 If the administration prefers an enduring
agreement, it should stop relying on a partisan minority and submit a stronger
accord to the Senate for ratification as a formal treaty. Ratification by the
Senate would necessitate a bipartisan consensus on the merits of an accord and
render it far less susceptible to cancellation by the next president.
Finally, the United States should continue — on its own and together with Israel
— to increase the credible threat of military action should Iran move closer to
the nuclear threshold or sprint to nuclear weapons. Specifically, Washington and
Jerusalem should continue U.S.-Israeli military exercises practicing the
destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.38 The United States and Israel should
also consider actions short of military strikes, such as cyber-attacks and
sabotage of nuclear or nuclear-related sites, to delay the Islamic Republic’s
progress and remind the regime that its malign activity will not come without
cost.
Still, it would be far better to avoid the risk war of war by discarding the
JCPOA framework and implementing a comprehensive pressure campaign that
confronts Tehran with the prospect of bankruptcy and isolation unless it
dismantles its enrichment program. The Biden administration should take all
related measures necessary to ensure that the world’s most prolific state
sponsor of terrorism can never reach the nuclear weapons threshold.
Erdoğan, in Trouble at Home, Fishing for Trouble in the
Aegean
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 05/2022
At home, Turks are economically paralyzed: the official annual inflation rate is
running at 48% (although independent researchers measure it at 114%); there are
basic commodity shortages; gasoline, natural gas and electricity costs have
doubled within a year; the national currency has lost half of its value against
major Western currencies, and per capita GDP has been in freefall for the past
seven years. The minimum wage, at barely $375 a month, is, after Albania, the
second lowest in continental Europe. This gloomy picture has emerged just 16
months before Turkey's Islamist autocrat, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will
go for an all-or-nothing election in June 2023.
Like any other third-world autocrat, Erdoğan blames the economic collapse on
"foreign powers plotting against Turkey's graceful rise."
[Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail] Demir's office is running
hundreds of armament programs. But observers have noticed a recent tendency to
give prominence to naval programs targeting exclusively Greece, as Turkey does
not have other littoral rivals.
Turkish military and defense procurement officials are working day and night to
run scores of other, smaller naval programs, despite the country's severe
economic constraints. This expansion reflects a political process of
prioritizing guns over butter -- all as theater for Turkish voters before they
go to the ballot box. Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail Demir,
says that Turkey will keep working to have a stronger and more deterrent naval
force in the "blue homeland," a term Turks use for the Aegean and Mediterranean
Seas. Demir's office is running hundreds of armament programs. Pictured: The
Turkish Navy minesweeper Akcay enters the Russian port of Novorossiysk, for
military exercises in the Black Sea, on March 6, 2019.
To this day, the Turks are proud that their Ottoman ancestors had made the
Aegean and Mediterranean Seas "a Turkish lake." To this day, they lament that
the Aegean is now widely a Greek lake and the Mediterranean is anything but a
Turkish lake.
A century after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the birth of the modern
Turkish Republic, Turkey's irredentist Islamists are flexing their muscles not
exactly to make the Aegean a Turkish lake again, but to distract the Turkish
masses who many well be economically disgruntled into embracing the illusion
that a neo-Ottoman Armada is back on the blue waters.
At home, Turks are economically paralyzed: the official annual inflation rate is
running at 48% (although independent researchers measure it at 114%); there are
basic commodity shortages; gasoline, natural gas and electricity costs have
doubled within a year; the national currency has lost half of its value against
major Western currencies, and per capita GDP has been in freefall for the past
seven years. The minimum wage, at barely $375 a month, is, after Albania, the
second lowest in continental Europe. This gloomy picture has emerged just 16
months before Turkey's Islamist autocrat, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will
go for an all-or-nothing election in June 2023.
Like any other third-world autocrat, Erdoğan blames the economic collapse on
"foreign powers plotting against Turkey's graceful rise." He often describes his
unorthodox economic policies as an "economic war of independence." He needs more
than that, however, to make poverty-stricken Turks feel better. How about: "Our
mighty navy is making the Aegean a Turkish lake again"? Not bad, especially if
you think that the average Turk is a seventh-grade drop-out who would not bother
to check the map and see that some Greek islands are swimming distance from the
Turkish shore.
Feeling threatened, traditional Aegean rival Greece in January showcased its
newly acquired defense capabilities by flying six Rafale fighter jets over the
Acropolis hours after they arrived from France -- along with a bill for €11.5
billion.
"The six planes that Greece bought are too few to face Turkey," responded
Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.
Echoing the minister, Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail Demir,
said that Turkey will keep working to have a stronger and more deterrent naval
force in the "blue homeland," a term Turks use for the Aegean and Mediterranean
Seas.
Demir's office is running hundreds of armament programs. But observers have
noticed a recent tendency to give prominence to naval programs targeting
exclusively Greece, as Turkey does not have other littoral rivals.
In December, the procurement agency SSB invited bids for the construction of
three Turkish-designed Istanbul-class frigates to join five others under its
national corvette (MILGEM) program. The frigates are designed for reconnaissance
and surveillance, target identification, early warning, base and port defense,
anti-submarine, anti-aircraft, surface warfare, amphibious operations and
patrolling missions.
Turkey's decision to have three frigates built -- instead of one at a time of
budgetary constraints -- has a geo-strategic message. "The political authority
is telling Turkey's regional adversaries that it will not reconcile in
geo-strategic disputes in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas," Özgür Ekşi,
editor-in-chief of the defense news website TurDef, told this author.
There are other Turkish naval programs signaling a return to tensions on the
Aegean Sea.
In August 2021, Turkish shipyard Ares said it designed and developed an unmanned
anti-submarine warfare vessel. Ares said the ULAQ DSH/ASW successfully passed
laser-guided firing tests. In October, Ares and defense technology company
Meteksan Savunma launched a surface-warfare version of the ULAQ: Turkey's first
armed unmanned surface vessel. The system reportedly has a 400-kilometer range
and can travel at speeds up to 65 kph.
In January, Turkey also commissioned into service the country's first
intelligence-gathering ship, TCG Ufuk, which will be jointly operated by the
National Intelligence Organization and the Turkish Navy.
Also in January, the government announced that it would start the construction
of a prototype ship that eventually will become part of a planned fleet of
"Turkish-type assault boats." Military analysts say these boats will
"destroy/inactivate enemy assets at seas."
Shortly after that, the Turkish Navy decided to replace its ageing inventory of
about 350 U.S.-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles with the Atmaca, an indigenous
anti-ship missile that reportedly has a range of over 220km, can cruise at an
altitude as low as three meters and "navigate around islands and islets," a
not-so-hidden reference to their use in the Aegean Sea. It will be fitted aboard
the Ada-class corvettes, the Istanbul-class frigates and the TF2000-class
destroyers. Then there is what will become the Turkish Navy's jewel, the TCG
Anadolu, a $1.2 billion landing helicopter dock. Ankara recently decided to
convert this ambitious vessel into a drone carrier, as a Turkish drone
manufacturer, Baykar, has been building TB3 drones exclusively for the Anadolu.
The Anadolu is expected to become operational within a year.Turkish military and
defense procurement officials are working day and night to run scores of other,
smaller naval programs, despite the country's severe economic constraints. This
expansion reflects a political process of prioritizing guns over butter -- all
as theater for Turkish voters before they go to the ballot box.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences
Amir Taheri/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
As Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine enters its second week, the naughty little
law of unintended consequences is lifting its head above the parapet.
The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin’s brazen
claim that there is and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is
nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a
creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine
to the Germans in the Brest-Litovsk Treaty.
Putin also claimed that Ukraine has “always been part of Russia”, although the
principality of Kyiv appeared before any Russian identity took shape. Ukraine
and Russia, along with numerous other ethnic groups and nations, had been parts
of the Tsarist and then Soviet Empires but neither had been a part of the other.
For a while, much of Ukraine was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and, in
fact, it was against Austrian rule that Ukrainian nationalism first took shape.
To be sure Russian and Ukrainian languages are as close to each other as are
American English and UK English. But, although some of the greatest writers in
Russian, notably Nikolai Gogol and Isaac Babel were Ukrainians, Ukraine has had
its distinct literature since the 18th Century. Putin’s invasion has reminded
many Ukrainians of their rich heritage. In the past few days people in many
parts of Ukraine have been reading, reciting and signing some of the patriotic
poems written by Taras Shevchenko, Levko Borovykovsky and Tomasz Padura. Rather
than burying Ukrainian identity under his bombs, Putin may have given it new
vigor. Putin wanted to nip Ukraine’s European aspirations in the bud. There,
too, he may have achieved the opposite. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that
looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization while
looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity. There were no
lines of Ukrainians seeking shelter in Russia or Belarus; the long queues were
at Polish and Romanian borders. President Volodymyr Zelensky was reflecting his
people’s wishes when he asked for an immediate membership of the European Union.
It was only year ago when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mocked the
European Union as a “sinking ship” from which people were trying to jump off,
starting with Brexit. Last week, however, even “Brexit Boris” was conscious of a
collective European responsibility to defend the rule of law.
For years, Putin had worked to “de-couple” the United States and the European
Union, hoping that, without the American behemoth, the European “midgets” would
be easily cowed. The current crisis, however, showed that the Europeans can take
the lead in being much tougher than the Americans under the risk-averse Joe
Biden.
Putin also wanted to destroy NATO’s image as a protective shield for democratic
nations. After all Donald Trump had declared NATO to be “irrelevant” while
French President Emmanuel Macron had pronounced it “brain dead”. Inside Ukraine
many did not see why joining NATO would be in their nation's interest. Now, all
that has changed as the octogenarian alliance is experiencing a second youth.
Even Germany under a Social Democrat Chancellor, has suddenly decided to drop
seven decades of anti-military posture with a whopping $100 billion rearmament
project. Even non-NATO European nations such as Austria, Sweden and Finland have
fallen into line to oppose the aggressor. In European countries not yet in NATO
the accelerator is pressed for faster membership. Unwittingly, perhaps, Putin
has become a salesman for NATO insurance policies.
European popular reaction to Putin’s invasion is in sharp contrast with how
Europe reacted to Hitler’s annexation of Austria (Anschluss) in 1938. For 20
years the Putin wolf played grandmother in disguise.
That disguise enabled him to get away with invading Georgia, dominating Belarus,
massacring Syrians, propelling the mullahs of Tehran, annexing Crimea, taking
joyrides in various parts of Africa, poisoning people in Europe, and trying to
disrupt elections in several countries through cyber-attacks. All that time
almost a quarter of his income came from oil and gas sales to Western
democracies-oil and gas produced thanks to Western capital, technology,
management and marketing.
Now, however, even the most naïve in the West know where that grandmother got
her teeth. Putin thought that wiping Ukraine off the map would put the whole
world at his feet.
The opposite has happened. Even China has refused to endorse his adventure. At
the time of this writing, he is in a lonely-hearts club that includes Ali
Khamenei in Tehran, Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Burmese jackboots, Sudanese
military rulers, and a couple of ageing Latino Marxists. In Western countries
his long-time admirers on the right and left are trying to mumble a new
narrative to obfuscate their past peccadillo. Even once big politicians like
former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and former French Premier Francois
Fillon feel uneasy about riding in Putin’s gravy train for oligarchs.
Putin’s new version of the long dead Warsaw Pact has attracted no more than a
few fellow autocrats.
The Ukraine adventure was also designed to establish Putin as a successful
empire-builder whose personal power ad charisma would forever guarantee the
safety of the ill-gained fortunes amassed by a couple of hundred oligarchs.
Putin would fight and win while the oligarchs and their trophy wives basked in
the sun of the French Riviera or bought football clubs across Europe. That
equation, too, has been upset. The Ukraine adventure is now threatening the very
system of international corruption that allowed such amazing rag-to-riches
stories to shape.
For years, the average Russian has tolerated a good dose of repression from
Putin because he seemed to keep the country out of big trouble while the economy
improved thanks to energy exports.
The invasion could change all that. Russia is heading for big trouble while the
golden goose of energy exports may lay fewer eggs. Worse still, proud Russia may
find itself hat in hand in Beijing, offering to mortgage the farm to Chinese
overlord Xi Jinping.
Putin has always boasted that he wants to secure a seat at the top table for
Russia and revive the global leadership ambitions of the Tsars and their
Bolshevik successors. Right now, however, he has lost even the side-chairs that
Russia had been granted here and there, becoming an international pariah. Putin
may yet crush Ukraine with his far superior fire power. But he would do well to
remember Sir Winston Churchill’s note: “There are no certainties in war.”
How and Why Will Putin Seize Ukraine
Camelia Entekhabifard/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
The Russia-Ukraine war has now gone to its second week. As the war is prolonged,
many believe that Putin has miscalculated and that Russia’s war machine will now
be stopped by the sanctions of the European Union and NATO.
Ranking 22nd out of a list of military capabilities of 140 countries, Ukraine
was obviously not an easy force to reckon with. The largest country in Europe
(if you don’t count Russia’s European section) with an area of more than 600,000
square kilometers and boasting a population of 43 million people, this isn’t a
country that could be occupied and seized overnight.
But Putin knew all of this. He hasn’t invaded Ukraine out of naivety. The US
President and NATO countries also know the fact that the war has been prolonged
and Kiev hasn’t fallen is not due to Russia’s lack of military capability or
miscalculations by Putin.
As usual, what we read in the mainstream media or what the regurgitating pundits
claim is far from the real state of things. For a few years now, the political
and military balance of power has shifted — as have the policies and strategies
of the US, Russia, China and India. Priorities have shifted.
We no longer live in a unipolar world; US’s supremacy is now seriously
challenged by Russia and China. What we see today, in the beginning of the
second week of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, was predictable for Putin. He will
go all the way to seizure of Ukraine and will bring about changes that are
desired by Russia.
Upon gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine inherited a military with 780,000
soldiers and the world’s third biggest nuclear arsenal, boasting 200 nuclear
warheads. In May 1992, Kiev signed the Lisbon protocol which obligated it to
give up all its nuclear weapons to Russia. It joined the Non-Proliferation
Treaty as a non-nuclear country.
Ukraine’s large nuclear sites are an inheritance from the knowledge and
investment by Russia in the Soviet period. The country now hosts Europe’s
largest nuclear energy centers. As President Zelensky shows an inclination for
closer ties to the EU and NATO, and given the possibility of Ukraine building a
nuclear bomb, Russia is faced with the possibility of its biggest security
crisis following the fall of the USSR.
Yes, Ukraine’s nuclear weapons were given up but the country still has the
knowledge and capacity of building them. Putin’s concerns are rooted in national
security and challenges he faces vis a vis the West and the United States -- and
the question of balance of forces.
Ukraine is considered a gate to Russia. The country is not only a neighbor of
Russia and former Soviet Union’s second largest country but its people bear much
demographic and linguistic similarity to Russia’s. There are many close ties.
Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO, and the possibility of it
building a nuclear weapon, are amongst the red lines of Russia. Zelensky’s close
ties to the West and his belief in support from the US and NATO, put him on a
path with conflict Russia. This is what brought about the current situation.
Now, Putin’s military actions have targeted not only Ukraine and Zelensky — but
have brought a new challenge to West and the US. Even after the end of the Cold
War, Russia has never had ordinary friendly relations with the West and the US.
To watch the raising of nuclear weapon bases in Eastern Europe and in former
countries of the USSR or the Warsaw Pact — plus the presence of US nuclear
submarines near its borders (in Norway) — has meant a lot of worry for Russia.
The sanctions will hurt Russia but they’ll have an equally negative effect on
the global economy. Russia is a large and strong government with much trade with
other countries including the US.
Leaders of NATO countries, including the US, speak of their concerns for Ukraine
and its shelterless people. They are also fearful of bloodshed and a total war
in the country’s biggest cities. On March 4, they rejected Zelensky’s request
for a no-fly zone.
NATO has insisted that it will continue supporting Ukraine but it won’t enter a
war with Russia in its defense.
The global price of oil is increasing. EU is worried about cutting of gas and
oil imports from Russia. The US itself hasn’t been able to stop buying oil from
Russia. Even now, it continues to import Russian oil.
But West’s crippling sanctions are now targeting luxury yachts of Russian
billionaires or Russian footballers and athletes who have nothing to do with
politics — there was also the earth-shattering banning of Russian carts from a
cat beauty pageant!
The ‘isolation’ claimed by West is based on it sanctions policy which is not
supported by all the world. China and India didn’t join in. The countries of our
region, who have witnessed years of shifting polices and strategies by the US
and the West are also adopting a neutral approach. This neutralism is meaningful
— for example, they refuse to increase oil production in OPEC to help bring down
the vital commodity’s price, despite requests by US and its Western partners.
Putin will indeed seize Ukraine but he won’t stop there. He will make sure that
Ukraine’s nuclear sites will never have the capacity for building of nuclear
weapons. Most importantly, during the negotiations, he’ll bring about other
preconditions and demand for NATO to stop hosting nuclear weapons in Eastern
European countries, so close to the borders of Russia. Russia can’t accept the
West threatening its borders. Ukraine and Belarus are seen as gates to Russia;
so are countries of Central Asia.
This has been Russian policy since Peter the Great. Russians will not accept
opposing governments in these countries; they won’t accept any government that’s
not close to them.
Now, a few words about the possibility of a nuclear war. In 2018, when Putin was
asked about the possibility of a third world war, he gave a strange but
meaningful response. Quoting Albert Einstein, the Russian president said: “I
know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will
be fought with sticks and stones.”
In simpler words, if the world’s powers use nuclear weapons, everything will be
destroyed and the next war will be fought in the way of primary humans — those
of the pre-historic period.
Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming
Frank Bruni/The New York Times/March, 05/2022
As Joe Biden campaigned for the White House in 2020, he knew that the next
president of the United States would govern under circumstances significantly
more daunting than those that most faced.
As he took the oath of office in 2021, he could see very clearly — in the tally
of Covid-related deaths, in the economic and social devastation of the pandemic,
in the country’s vicious partisanship — the immense scope and immeasurable
difficulty of the work ahead.
But he surely never expected this. Never expected war in Europe. Never expected
a confrontation with Vladimir Putin of such urgency and unpredictable
proportions. Never expected that his stack of challenges would grow this much
taller, in this particularly terrifying way.
He delivered his first formal State of the Union address on Tuesday night as
both a leader and a lesson: Few who have taken a seat at the Resolute Desk end
up reading from anything like the script they had first imagined for themselves
— or that others had imagined for them. Presidents plan. History laughs. Or
weeps or screams — those seem the more appropriate verbs now. Whatever the
language, I look at Biden and I not only examine someone in what the journalist
John Dickerson, in the title of his 2020 book, calls “The Hardest Job in the
World.” I also behold someone in history’s crucible, learning or relearning what
every candidate should know and what every voter should factor into his or her
calculations, which is how quickly events jag and how suddenly they judder.
Biden is in many ways a propitious fit for current events. It’s useful, at this
fearful juncture, to have a decidedly even-tempered president with his broad
perspective, which has thus far prevented a potentially catastrophic
overreaction to Putin’s saber-rattling.
It’s useful to have a president with his regard for institutions and NATO
specifically. The Western alliance has been more united than Putin or just about
anybody else wagered it would be, and Biden gets some credit for that. As John
Avlon, the author of the new book “Lincoln and the Fight for Peace,” told me,
“This is reflecting his experience and at least some of his intended strengths.”
But Avlon agreed that Biden belongs to a long line of presidents tugged far off
script. Avlon reminded me that President Woodrow Wilson had once famously said,
“It would be an irony of fate if my administration had to deal chiefly with
foreign affairs.” Well, fate went full-throttle ironic in the form of the First
World War. “It’s almost always foreign affairs,” Avlon, a senior political
analyst and anchor for CNN, said, “because the process of campaigning is almost
always about domestic affairs.”President George W. Bush, in his bid for the
White House, questioned “nation building” in foreign lands, sounded somewhat
isolationist at times and emphasized aspects of his persona that complemented a
relatively prosperous, peaceful chapter of American life. Then came the
terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
President Jimmy Carter, whose appeal was largely as an ethical correction after
President Richard Nixon, found himself dealing with stagflation at home and the
Iranian hostage crisis abroad.
We elect presidents — or should — not just for the moment but for any moment,
because the moment changes in the blink of an autocrat’s ego. It did for Biden.
“No president had delivered his State of the Union address with such a
large-scale and consequential land war underway in Europe since 1945,” Peter
Baker wrote in The Times, describing just how unusual Biden’s situation suddenly
is.
Also in The Times, David Sanger weighed in: “Eastern Europe was not the
battlefield Mr. Biden had in mind when he raised the idea last year that the
battle of ‘autocracy versus democracy’ would be the defining foreign policy
principle of his administration.” No, the scheming of Donald Trump, not Putin,
was undoubtedly front of mind.
Dickerson, the “Hardest Job” author and the chief political analyst for CBS
News, told me that when Biden took office, Afghanistan and “trying to orient the
West’s focus — his focus — toward China” were top priorities. “Land war in
Europe was not on that agenda,” he noted.
“Having said that, all the planning that he’s done in his career, the building
of alliances, the team he put together: Implicit in their approach to the world
is that the presidency surprises you with things all the time,” he added. “This
is a job of surprises.”