English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For March 06/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Second Sunday of Great Lent: Sunday of the Man with Leprosy
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Mark 1,35-45./In the morning, while it was still very dark, Jesus got up and went out to a deserted place, and there he prayed. And Simon and his companions hunted for him. When they found him, they said to him, ‘Everyone is searching for you.’ He answered, ‘Let us go on to the neighbouring towns, so that I may proclaim the message there also; for that is what I came out to do.’ And he went throughout Galilee, proclaiming the message in their synagogues and casting out demons. A leper came to him begging him, and kneeling he said to him, ‘If you choose, you can make me clean.’ Moved with pity, Jesus stretched out his hand and touched him, and said to him, ‘I do choose. Be made clean!’ Immediately the leprosy left him, and he was made clean. After sternly warning him he sent him away at once, saying to him, ‘See that you say nothing to anyone; but go, show yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing what Moses commanded, as a testimony to them.’ But he went out and began to proclaim it freely, and to spread the word, so that Jesus could no longer go into a town openly, but stayed out in the country; and people came to him from every quarter.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 05-06/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him/Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
MoPH: 1,266 new coronavirus cases, 8 deaths
Ministry of Economy warns traders against any manipulation of food security
U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'Hizbullah Financiers' in Guinea
Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's Proposal
Lebanon's Cabinet Forms Ministerial Panel to Study Voting Megacenters Possibility
UN initiative brings Lebanese products to the US

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 05-06/2022
From 2015 Archive/The main problem for the U.S. to maintain its imperial supremacy is to prevent Russia-Germany connection.
Russian plane lands in US to remove diplomats expelled for alleged espionage
Russia’s demand for guarantees from US ‘not constructive’ for Vienna talks: Official
Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end
IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks Seen as Key to Nuclear Deal
Grossi: Nuclear Deal Not Possible Until Iran Resolves its Issues with Agency
Sept. 11 Victims Seek Seizure of Iran Oil from US-Owned Tanker
Israeli PM Bennett meets Putin in Moscow to discuss Ukraine crisis
Blinken hears harrowing tales from refugees fleeing Ukraine
'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves Russia, Ukraine in precarious positions
UN Security Council to Meet Monday on Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine
Russia's War in Ukraine: Latest Developments
Cease-fire attempt in Ukraine fails amid Russian shelling
Ukraine Says Mariupol Evacuation Delayed by Russian Ceasefire Violations
EU Suspends Russia, Belarus from Council of Baltic Sea States
Russian Defense Ministry: Ceasefire to Let Mariupol Residents Evacuate
G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Statement
The US envoy to Yemen and the Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy
Dozens of Soldiers Killed in Attack on Military Camp in Mali/N.Korea Conducts Ninth Missile Test in 2022

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 05-06/2022
Question: "What are the different types of fasting?"/GotQuestions.org?/March 06/2022
Putin Is Making a Mockery of the United Nations/The Biden administration must finally recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot do./Richard Goldberg and John Hardie/The Dispatch/March 05/2022 |
Iran Approaches the Nuclear Threshold /Washington’s Narrowing Policy Options/Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero/Memo/March 05/2022 |
Erdoğan, in Trouble at Home, Fishing for Trouble in the Aegean/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 05/2022
Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences/Amir Taheri/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
How and Why Will Putin Seize Ukraine/Camelia Entekhabifard/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming/Frank Bruni/The New York Times/March, 05/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on March 05-06/2022
The Leper’s Solid Faith Cured Him

Elias Bejjani/March 06/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/52983/elias-bejjani-the-lepers-solid-faith-cured-him/
Christ, the Son of God, is always ready and willing to help the sinners who seek forgiveness and repentance. When we are remorseful and ask Him for exoneration, He never gives up on us no matter what we did or said. As a loving Father, He always comes to our rescue when we get ourselves into trouble. He grants us all kinds of graces to safeguard us from falling into the treacherous traps of Satan’s sinful temptations.
Jesus the only Son Of God willingly endured all kinds of humiliation, pain, torture and accepted death on the cross for our sake and salvation. Through His crucifixion He absolved us from the original sin that our first parents Adam and Eve committed. He showed us the righteous ways through which we can return with Him on the Day Of Judgment to His Father’s Heavenly kingdom.
Jesus made his call to the needy, persecuted, sick and sinners loud and clear: “Come to me, all you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” (Matthew 11:28) The outcast leper believed in Jesus’ call and came to Him asking for cleansing. Jesus took his hand, touched him with love, and responded to his request.
The leper knew deep in his heart that Jesus could cure him from his devastating and shameful leprosy if He is willing to do so. Against all odds he took the hard and right decision to seek out at once Jesus’ mercy.
With solid faith, courage and perseverance the leper approached Jesus and begging him, kneeling down to him, and says to him, “If you want to, you can make me clean.” When he had said this, immediately the leprosy departed from him and he was made clean. Jesus extended His hand and touched him with great passion and strictly warned him, “See you say nothing to anybody, but go show yourself to the priest, and offer for your cleansing the things which Moses commanded, for a testimony to them.” But the leper went out, began to proclaim it much, and spread about the matter so that Jesus could no more openly enter into a city, but was outside in desert places: and they came to him from everywhere. (Mark 1/40-45)
We sinners, all of us, ought to learn from the leper’s great example of faith. Like him we need to endeavour for sincere repentance with heartfelt prayer, begging Almighty God for absolution from all our sins. Honest pursuit of salvation and repentance requires a great deal of humility, honesty, love, transparency and perseverance. Like the leper we must trust in God’s mercy and unwaveringly go after it.
The faithful leper sensed deep inside his conscience that Jesus could cleanse him, but was not sure if he is worth Jesus’ attention and mercy.
His faith and great trust in God made him break all the laws that prohibited a leper from getting close to or touching anybody. He tossed himself at Jesus’ feet scared and trembling. With great love, confidence, meekness and passion he spoke to Jesus saying “If you will, you can make me clean.” He did not mean if you are in a good mood at present. He meant, rather, if it is not out of line with the purpose of God, and if it is not violating some cosmic program God is working out then you can make me clean.
Lepers in the old days were outcasts forced to live in isolation far away from the public. They were not allowed to continue living in their own communities or families. They were looked upon as dead people and forbidden from even entering the synagogues to worship. They were harshly persecuted, deprived of all their basic rights and dealt with as sinners. But in God’s eyes these sick lepers were His children whom He dearly loves and cares for. “Blessed are you when people reproach you, persecute you, and say all kinds of evil against you falsely, for my sake. Rejoice, and be exceedingly glad, for great is your reward in heaven. For that is how they persecuted the prophets who were before you”. Matthew(5/11-12)
The leper trusted in God’s parenthood and did not have any doubts about Jesus’ divinity and power to cleanse and cure him. Without any hesitation, and with a pure heart, he put himself with full submission into Jesus’ hands and will knowing that God our Father cannot but have mercy on His children. “Blessed are the pure in heart, for they shall see God”. (Matthew5/8)
We need to take the leper as a role model in our lives. His strong and steadfast faith cured him and put him back into society. We are to know God can do whatever He wants and to trust Him. If He is willing, He will. We just have to trust in the goodness and mercy of God and keep on praying and asking, and He surely will respond in His own way even though many times our limited minds can not grasp His help.
Praying on regular basis as Jesus instructed us to is an extremely comforting ritual: “Therefore I tell you, all things whatever you pray and ask for, believe that you have received them, and you shall have them. Whenever you stand praying, forgive, if you have anything against anyone; so that your Father, who is in heaven, may also forgive you your transgressions. But if you do not forgive, neither will your Father in heaven forgive your transgressions” (Mark 11/24-26)
The leper’s faith teaches us that God always listens and always responds to our requests when we approach Him with pure hearts, trust, confidence and humbleness. Almighty God is a loving father who loves us all , we His children and all what we have to do to get His attention is to make our requests through praying. “Ask, and it will be given you. Seek, and you will find. Knock, and it will be opened for you. For everyone who asks receives. He who seeks finds. To him who knocks it will be opened”. (Matthew 7/8 -9)
N.B: The above piece was first published in year 2015/It is republished with Minor changes

MoPH: 1,266 new coronavirus cases, 8 deaths
NNA/March 05/2022
Lebanon has recorded 1,266 new coronavirus cases and 8 deaths in the last 24 hours, as reported by the Ministry of Public Health on Thursday

Ministry of Economy warns traders against any manipulation of food security
NNA/March 05/2022
Ministry of Trade and Economy warned merchants in a statement on Saturday "against any manipulation in sales operations or intending to monopolize foodstuffs in order to achieve illegal profits.”
The statement added that “the ministry will not hesitate to take deterrent and repressive measures against anyone who begged himself to tamper with the food security of the Lebanese."

U.S. Treasury Sanctions 'Hizbullah Financiers' in Guinea
Naharnet/March 05/2022
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has designated two “key Hizbullah financiers” operating in Guinea, a statement said. “This action is aimed at disrupting Hizbullah’s business network in West Africa, which relies on bribery and influence to circumvent the rule of law. In addition to other sources of funding, Hizbullah generates revenue from commercial activities across the world to sponsor acts of terrorism,” the U.S. statement added. It said the designation demonstrates Treasury’s ongoing efforts to target the group’s “international commercial activities and its global network of financiers, supporters, donors, and facilitators, which enable Hizbullah to persistently threaten the security, stability, and prosperity of Lebanon and other jurisdictions.” “With this action, Treasury continues to expose businessmen who support Hizbullah’s destabilizing activities through bribes and other corrupt activity,” said Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “The illicit financial activity of those designated today not only props up Hizbullah, but also undermines the legitimate commercial sector and rule of law in countries where such financial activity takes place,” he added. The statement designated the two individuals as Ali Saade and Ibrahim Taher, describing them as “prominent Lebanese businessmen with direct connections to Hizbullah.” “Saade initiates the money transfers from Guinea to Hizbullah, transferring funds through Hizbullah representatives in Guinea and Lebanon. Taher has been identified as one of the most prominent financial supporters of Hizbullah in Guinea. He is believed to employ a number of individuals affiliated with Hizbullah within the country,” the statement said. They are being designated for “having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Hizbullah.” The statement added that Saade has “a close relationship with designated Hizbullah supporter Kassem Tajideen whom OFAC designated in 2009 for being an important financial contributor to Hizbullah.”
At the time of his designation, Tajideen had “contributed tens of millions of dollars to Hizbullah and ran cover companies for Hizbullah in Africa with his brothers,” the Treasury said. “Saade was Tajideen’s primary political contact in Guinea. He made significant efforts to provide Tajideen with unrestricted access to corrupt members of the former Guinean administration at the highest levels and the rest of the Guinean government. Saade also advised Tajideen on methods for making financial transfers to evade detection by regulators,” the Treasury added. Taher and an associate meanwhile sent U.S. dollars collected at one of their commercial facilities to Conakry Airport and bribed Guinean customs officials to allow their currency to pass in luggage, the statement said. “Taher has used his status as an Honorary Consul of Lebanon to Cote d’Ivoire to travel in and out of Guinea with minimal scrutiny,” it added.

Hizbullah, Berri Shun Panel Formed to Study Hochstein's Proposal
Naharnet/March 05/2022
Speaker Nabih Berri and Hizbullah have distanced themselves from a panel formed by President Michel Aoun and Prime Minister Najib Miqati with the aim of studying the written proposal that has been sent to Lebanon by U.S. sea border demarcation envoy Amos Hochstein, media reports said on Saturday. “It had been initially decided to form a technical-administrative committee comprising representatives of the three presidencies (Aoun, Berri and Miqati) and the relevant ministries, but Berri distanced himself from this panel and refrained from dispatching any representative,” ministerial sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper. “It was later decided to limit the committee’s membership to representatives of the Presidency, the Premiership and the ministries of foreign affairs, defense, energy and public works,” the sources added. “Once it is formed, the committee will study the U.S. proposal and prepare a draft response for all its points before submitting it to the three presidencies for the final decision to taken,” the sources said, noting that the panel “does not comprise any member of the military-technical delegation that had been tasked with engaging in indirect negotiations (with Israel) in Naqoura,” the sources went on to say.
Al-Akhbar newspaper meanwhile said that the panel will include eight members – two for Aoun, two for Miqati, two for the Foreign Ministry and two for the Defense Ministry. It might also comprise envoys from the Lebanese Army and the ministries of environment, public works and energy, the daily added. High-level sources meanwhile told al-Akhbar that Public Works Minister Ali Hamiyeh told Hizbullah that the premier wants him to be part of the committee and that the party rejected his participation. “We will not take part in any meeting or negotiations related to the demarcation file, especially if the committee will meet with U.S. delegations,” Hizbulah told the minister according to the daily. “The Baabda Palace and the Grand Serail have not agreed on the names of the committee members until the moment,” al-Akhbar added.

Lebanon's Cabinet Forms Ministerial Panel to Study Voting Megacenters Possibility
Naharnet/March 05/2022
The Cabinet has formed a ministerial committee to study the possibility of setting up voting megacenters in the upcoming elections, after a study prepared by the Interior Ministry failed to convince President Michel Aoun. The committee comprises the ministers of justice, interior, finance, foreign affairs, educations, culture, tourism and telecommunications. It will be tasked with preparing a report on the possibility of setting up megacenters for the May 15 elections. According to local newspapers, Cabinet will discuss the report in a session that will be held Thursday in Baabda. The Interior Ministry had announced in a study presented to Prime Minister Najib Miqati earlier this way that it wil be impossible to use voting megacenters in the May 15 parliamentary elections, citing legal, logistic and financial difficulties. Miqati had requested the study following a letter from Aoun, who has described the megacenters plan as necessary. The study said that it would be impossible to set up the megacenters within the deadlines stipulated by the current electoral law. It also said that there is a need to introduce legal amendments amid the presence of logistic and organizational difficulties in terms of the needed manpower and financial resources. “The time needed to finalize the preparations is no less than five months,” the study said. It added that the project’s total cost would stand at around $5.8 million.

UN initiative brings Lebanese products to the US
Robert McKelvey, Al Arabiya English/March 05/,2022
As Lebanese struggle amid the country’s seemingly intractable economic crisis, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has announced a new initiative to assist embattled business owners by extending their reach overseas.
The Fast Track Export Support Program provides Lebanese companies in productive sectors the opportunity to enter new export markets in the US, bringing in much-needed fresh dollars. In turn, it will support sustainable business and growth.
“This initiative comes at a time when Lebanon is struggling with the consequences of the economic crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, including the loss in economic activities, revenues, and jobs, as well as a major disruption in global supply chains affecting the competitiveness of small businesses,” UNDP Project Manager Leila Sawaya told Al Arabiya English. “[This] is part of the UNDP’s ongoing efforts to support sustainable solutions that would unlock local companies’ export potential and provides a one-stop-shop solution to facilitate the entry of Lebanese goods into the US market,” she continued.
The Lebanese lira has lost over 90 percent of its value over the last two years, resulting in a massive economic downturn. Combined with rapidly rising prices, most local consumers have little to spare, putting increasing pressure on smaller businesses in particular.
Many Lebanese people have lost their jobs due to the economic crisis, with more than 80 percent now living below the poverty line. The UNDP hopes its program will help preserve the livelihoods of Lebanese workers and even lead to the creation of new jobs as these businesses expand.
“Providing Lebanese companies with the added boost needed to enter foreign markets is instrumental at this point,” Sawaya said. “Local purchasing power is shrinking, and companies are struggling to remain afloat.”Participants will receive three months of coaching from US-based consultants, helping them create and implement an effective market entry strategy. The UNDP will then provide in-kind assistance to help cover logistical costs, including shipping and warehousing in the US and clearance and customs procedures.
At the same time, marketing support working on branding, primarily focusing on packaging and labeling uplifts, and business development services provided by a US-based broker will help companies connect with potential buyers and distributors.
While most of the companies in the program sell processed food products, such as olive oil, non-alcoholic beverages, organic food preparations, or dried herbs like zaatar, others sell high-end, high-quality cosmetics products like artisanal soaps.
“We have diversity in the type of companies in our program and the type of products they sell,” Sawaya explained. “Some are selling products that fit the mainstream US market, and some are for the ethnic Middle Eastern market in the US. Both markets are growing and have strong growth potential.”“We have already tested the appetite for these products, and we have received very positive feedback,” she added. “It is a large and challenging market, but very rewarding if companies are provided with the support needed.”
Competition inside Lebanon’s domestic markets makes it difficult for companies to grow and expand their market share. At the same time, the troubled country’s lack of modern manufacturing infrastructure and dependency on imports – paid for in foreign currency – prevents companies from producing enough to meet the demand from export markets. It is then further compounded by global increases in logistical costs due to the COVID-19 pandemic and informal capital controls imposed by Lebanese commercial banks and the halting of financial services. For many, the initiatives like the UNDP’s are their only hope.
“[This] program will allow us to have access to US dollars, which is the currency we use to buy everything we need in Lebanon, including the raw material, the machinery, and the rent of our premises,” said Georgy Rahayel, Founder of Le Joyau d’Olive. “Sadly, even rent is now paid in US dollars.”
“We’re a small company,” he explained. “With Fast Track, we’re able to access distributors in the US [and] the program will bear the cost of shipping and warehousing in the US, which is something we would not have been able to do on our own.”
Even larger-scale operations face obstacles when stepping up to the international level. Even with sufficient resources and staff, not being able to successfully navigate international trade regulations or comply with the standards of the markets they are seeking to enter into makes the process confusing and frustrating. “[We are] one of the biggest non-conventional wheat mills in the Bekaa region,” said Isabelle Bou Khalife Saliba, Co-Owner and Marketing Manager of Rim Mills. “[We are] equipped with a modern factory capable of meeting the local and international demands [and we] have built a cluster of farmers in the region, focusing on producing burghul and recently moghrabieh, also known as the ‘Lebanese pearl.’”“For companies that are at an earlier stage of their export process,” she explained, “it’s hard to understand the US market requirements and consumer trends, [or find] advice on how to improve their marketing strategy and connect with potential buyers, distributors or importers.”“[This program] is offering [my company] the [opportunity] to penetrate the US market in a quick yet smooth way,” said Rose Bechara Perini, Founder of Darmmess. “I produce, market, and distribute a high-end, high antioxidant extra virgin olive oil. [With access to] scientific data, knowledgeable business consultations [and] support, I would expect the brand [to be] leading the category of high-end Lebanese olive oils on that market in a few years.”
Despite the perceived quality of Lebanese goods, it remains to be seen if enhancing foreign exports can turn the tide of the country’s economic woes. Without large-scale support from the Lebanese government, initiatives like the UNDP’s ‘Fast Track’ are only a temporary stopgap, but one that may point the way to a better – and more stable – economic future.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on March 05-06/2022
ديو مهم من المفيد مشاهدته/الكاتت والمحلل والخبير السياسي الأميركي جي فريدمان يحكي تاريخ أوروبا الدموي والعلاقات الدولية والحروب وما يراه للمستقبل في الحرب الأوكرانية-الروسية
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=emCEfEYom4A
From 2015 Archive/The main problem for the U.S. to maintain its imperial supremacy is to prevent Russia-Germany connection.

Russian plane lands in US to remove diplomats expelled for alleged espionage
AFP/March 05, 2022
WASHINGTON: A Russian plane landed at Washington’s international airport Saturday to pick up about a dozen diplomats from Moscow’s UN mission who are accused by Washington of espionage, authorities said. The United States closed its airspace to all Russian aircraft after Moscow invaded Ukraine. The Ilyushin Il-96 aircraft was allowed, however, to land at Dulles International Airport. The landing was confirmed by the FlightAware website, which tracks all air movement.“The US government approved a flight chartered by the Russian government to facilitate the departure of Russian UN Mission personnel who were expelled for abuse of their privileges of residence,” a State Department spokesman told AFP. “This special exception was done... to ensure Russian mission personnel and their families departed by the date we had instructed,” the spokesman added, speaking on background. The United States had called on Monday for the expulsion of 12 members of Russia’s UN mission by March 7. A day later, again citing alleged espionage, the US ordered the expulsion of a Russian national working for the UN secretariat. “This is a hostile move against our country,” Russian ambassador to the United States Anatoli Antonov said in a Facebook message, adding that Moscow “totally rejected” the US claims.The Russian mission employs about 100 people, according to a Russian diplomatic source.

Russia’s demand for guarantees from US ‘not constructive’ for Vienna talks: Official
Reuters/Published: 05 March ,2022
Russia’s demand for written guarantees from the United States that sanctions on Moscow would not damage its cooperation with Iran is “not constructive” for talks between Tehran and global powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Saturday.
“Russians had put this demand on table since two days ago. There is an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive for Vienna nuclear talks,” said the official in Tehran. Russia said on Saturday that Western sanctions imposed over the conflict in Ukraine had become a stumbling block for the Iran nuclear deal, warning the West that Russian national interests would have to be taken into account.

Iran to answer UN nuclear questions as deal talks near end
AP/March 05, 2022
VIENNA: Iran has agreed to supply answers long sought by the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, Tehran and the UN agency said Saturday, as talks in Vienna over its tattered atomic deal with world powers appear to be coming to an end.
A joint statement by Mohammad Eslami, the head of the civilian Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and Rafael Mariano Grossi of the International Atomic Energy, came hours after the two met in Tehran. It envisions the IAEA reaching conclusions on the discovery of uranium particles at former undeclared sites in Iran by June. The move is separate from the talks over the nuclear deal but could help push them to a conclusion. But meanwhile, Russia's foreign minister for the first time linked US sanctions on Moscow over its war on Ukraine to the ongoing Iran nuclear deal talks — adding a new wrinkle to the delicate diplomacy. Grossi said in Tehran that “it would be difficult to believe or to imagine that such an important return to such a comprehensive agreement ... would be possible if the agency and Iran would not be seeing eye to eye on how to resolve these important safeguards issues.” Safeguards refer to the IAEA's inspections and monitoring of a country's nuclear program. Grossi for years has sought for Iran to answer questions about man-made uranium particles found at former undeclared nuclear sites. US intelligence agencies, Western nations and the IAEA have said Iran ran an organized nuclear weapons program until 2003. Iran long has denied ever seeking nuclear weapons.
Eslami said the men had reached an “agreement” that would see Iran “presenting documents that would remove the ambiguities about our country.” He did not elaborate on what the documents would discuss.
The later joint statement said that Eslami's agency will by March 20 give the UN nuclear watchdog “written explanations including related supporting documents to the questions raised by the IAEA which have not been addressed by Iran on the issues related to three locations.”Within two weeks, the IAEA will review that information and submit any questions, and within a week of that the two agencies will meet in Tehran to address the questions.
Grossi will then aim to report his conclusions by the time the IAEA board of governors meets in June. Speaking on his return to Vienna, Grossi said that “may or may not happen,” depending on Iran’s cooperation. He said the conclusions could go in “different directions” and could be final or partial.
“The safeguards issues will not be resolved politically because I will not go for that,” Grossi said. “There is no artificial deadline, there is no predefined outcome, there is no predefined name for what I am going to do,” he told reporters.
The nuclear deal saw Iran agree to drastically limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of crushing economic sanctions. But a 2018 decision by then-President Donald Trump to unilaterally withdraw America from the agreement sparked years of tensions and attacks across the wider Mideast. Today, Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — its highest level ever and a short technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90% and far greater than the nuclear deal’s 3.67% cap. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to grow, worrying nuclear nonproliferation experts that Iran could be closer to the threshold of having enough material for an atomic weapon if it chose to pursue one.
Undeclared sites played into the initial 2015 deal as well. That year the IAEA’s then-director-general went to Tehran and visited one suspected weapons-program site at Parchin. Inspectors also took samples there for analysis.
Grossi's inspectors also face challenges in monitoring Iran's current advances in its civilian program. Iran has held IAEA surveillance camera recordings since February 2021, not letting inspectors view them amid the nuclear negotiations.
In Vienna, negotiators appear to be signaling a deal is near, even as Russia's war in Ukraine rages on. Russian ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov has been a key mediator in the talks and tweeted Thursday that negotiations were “almost over.” That was also acknowledged by French negotiator Philippe Errera. “We hope to come back quickly to conclude because we are very, very close to an agreement,” Errera wrote Friday on Twitter. “But nothing is agreed until EVERYTHING is agreed!”But comments Saturday by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for the first time offered the suggestion that the Ukraine war — and the stinging sanctions that Americans and others have put on Moscow — could interfere.
“We need guarantees these sanctions will in no way affect the trading, economic and investment relations contained in the (deal) for the Iranian nuclear program," Lavrov said, according to the Tass news agency

IAEA Chief in Iran for Talks Seen as Key to Nuclear Deal
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The U.N. nuclear watchdog's chief held high-level talks in Tehran on Saturday that are seen as crucial in efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. The visit by International Atomic Energy Agency head Rafael Grossi comes after Britain, one of the parties to parallel talks on the deal in Vienna, indicated that an agreement was close. The accord has been hanging by a thread since the United States' unilateral withdrawal in 2018 under then president Donald Trump."This is a critical time but a positive outcome for everyone is possible," the director general of the Vienna-based IAEA tweeted on Friday before flying to Iran. Grossi held talks on Saturday with Mohammed Eslami, president of the Atomic Engergy Organization of Iran, ahead of a meeting with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, states news agency IRNA said. The 2015 nuclear deal was aimed at guaranteeing that Tehran could not develop a nuclear weapon -- something it has always denied wanting to do. The next few days are widely seen as a crunch point for negotiations on reviving the accord formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. "We are close. E3 negotiators leaving Vienna briefly to update ministers on state of play" and were "ready to return soon", said British delegation head Stephanie Al-Qaq, referring to negotiators from Britain, France and Germany. Ongoing talks in the Austrian capital to restore the agreement involve Iran as well as Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly, and the United States indirectly.
'Roadmap'
Grossi vowed this week that the IAEA would "never abandon" its attempts to get Iran to clarify the presence in the past of nuclear material at several undeclared sites. Iran has said the closure of the probe is necessary to clinch a deal. Behrouz Kamalvandi, deputy head of the Iranian atomic agency, told television he was hopeful Iran would reach an agreement with the IAEA during Grossi's visit. Iranian newspapers Etemad and Iran echoed his comments, with the former saying "Tehran and the IAEA could reach a roadmap to resolve the problem within a limited time". Grossi is expected to hold a news conference on his return to Vienna. The JCPOA gave Iran relief from sanctions in return for strict curbs on its nuclear program.Trump's decision to withdraw from it in 2018 was followed by the imposition of crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran, prompting the Islamic republic to start disregarding the limits on its nuclear activity.
'Work ongoing'
The coming days are seen as pivotal by the West because of the rate Iran is making nuclear advances. Its stockpile of enriched uranium has now reached more than 15 times the limit set out in the 2015 accord, the IAEA said this week. Several observers believe the West could leave the negotiating table and chalk the deal up to a failure if a compromise is not reached this weekend. The EU has been chairing nuclear deal negotiations and the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday he "hopes to have results this weekend" to "resurrect the agreement." He stressed there was "still work ongoing." Iran's top diplomat, Amir-Abdollahian, said earlier he was prepared to travel to the Austrian capital if a deal was reached. "I am ready to go to Vienna when the Western sides accept our remaining red lines," he said in a phone call with Borrell. While Amir-Abdollahian did not define the "red lines", Iran has repeatedly demanded the right to verify the removal of sanctions and for guarantees the U.S. will not repeat its withdrawal from the agreement.On Thursday, U.S. State Department deputy spokeswoman Jalina Porter said negotiators were "close to a possible deal", but that "a number of difficult issues" remained unresolved. أowever, "if Iran shows seriousness, we can and should reach an understanding of mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA within days," she added.

Grossi: Nuclear Deal Not Possible Until Iran Resolves its Issues with Agency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi said on Saturday that reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers will not be possible without first settling Tehran's issues with the agency. Iran's nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami told a joint news conference in Tehran with Grossi that outstanding issues would be resolved toward the end of June. Tehran has agreed to "present documents to the IAEA to close remaining issues", he said. Tehran and Washington have held more than 11 months of indirect talks in Vienna on reviving the pact, which was abandoned in 2018 by former US President Donald Trump, who also reimposed far-reaching sanctions on Iran. The 2015 deal limited Iran's enrichment of uranium, to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of economic sanctions. All parties involved in the talks aimed at bringing Tehran and Washington back into compliance with the nuclear pact have said they were close to reaching an agreement in Vienna. One wildcard is an effort by the IAEA to resolve questions about nuclear material that the Vienna-based agency suspects Iran failed to declare Grossi said there are matters that still need to be addressed by Iran.


Sept. 11 Victims Seek Seizure of Iran Oil from US-Owned Tanker
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
Victims of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks asked a US judge to order the seizure of Iranian crude oil from a tanker owned by an American private equity firm, to help satisfy a $3.61 billion judgment against Iran over the attacks. The request came in filings on Thursday with the US District Court in Manhattan. Dozens of attack victims and their families said the Suez Rajan, owned by Los Angeles-based Oaktree Capital Management and idling in Southeast Asia, appeared to be carrying up to 1 million barrels of Iranian oil, violating US sanctions. They said the oil should be sold to help cover their February 2018 judgment against Iran over that country's providing material support to al-Qaeda related to the attacks. Iran has long denied such claims. Oaktree has about $166 billion of assets under management. Neither the firm nor its London-based Fleetscape unit, which finances the Suez Rajan, immediately responded on Friday to requests for comment. The request came after the nonprofit United Against Nuclear Iran, which uses satellite images to track tanker movement, wrote Oaktree on Feb. 15 that the Suez Rajan appeared to have taken on the oil from another tanker two days earlier.
Even if the oil were seized, sales proceeds at current prices would cover only about 3% of the $3.61 billion judgment. Victims said about $3.44 billion is outstanding, with the National Iranian Oil Co and National Iranian Tanker Corp, both under US sanctions, among the entities responsible to pay it. Judgments against accused state sponsors of terrorism are often impossible to enforce. On Feb. 18, Fleetscape said the Suez Rajan was operated by Empire Navigation, and that it had no role operating Empire's fleet. It also said it took accusations of US sanctions violations seriously. Empire, based in Athens, said on Feb. 21 it was also investigating the matter. Nearly 3,000 people died on Sept. 11, 2001, when planes were flown into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in northern Virginia, and a Pennsylvania field. The cases are Hoglan et al v Oaktree Capital Management LP et al, US District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 11-07550; and In re Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001 in the same court, No. 03-md-01570.

Israeli PM Bennett meets Putin in Moscow to discuss Ukraine crisis
REUTERS/March 05, 2022
JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin on Saturday to discuss the Ukraine crisis, his spokesperson said. Israel, home to a substantial population of Russian immigrants, has offered to mediate in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though officials have previously played down expectations of a breakthrough. While Israel, a close ally of the United States, has condemned the Russian invasion, voiced solidarity with Kyiv and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it has said it will maintain communications with Moscow in the hope of helping to ease the crisis. Israel is also mindful of Moscow’s military support for President Bashar Assad in next-door Syria, where Israel regularly attacks Iranian and Hezbollah military targets. Contacts with Moscow prevent Russian and Israeli forces trading fire by accident.Bennett, a religious Jew, took a flight in violation of Sabbath law because Judaism permits this when the aim is to preserve human life, his spokesperson said..Lavrov said he wanted “guarantees at least at the level of the secretary of state” that the US sanctions would not affect Moscow's relationship with Tehran. There was no immediate American response to Lavrov's comments. Meanwhile on Saturday, Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard unveiled what it described as two new underground missile and drone bases in the country. State TV said the bases contained surface-to-surface missiles and armed drones capable of “hiding themselves from enemy radar.”

Blinken hears harrowing tales from refugees fleeing Ukraine
AP/March 05, 2022
KORCZOWA, Poland: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Saturday visited a welcome center set up by Polish authorities in what once was a shopping mall in Korczowa, close to the border with Ukraine. At the center, there are roughly 3,000 refugees taking shelter after the Russian invasion of their homeland. While at the border later, Blinken stepped briefly onto Ukrainian soil to meet Foreign Minister Dymtro Kuleba, who predicted Russia would be defeated but appealed for more military assistance to lower the cost in lives that he said victory will require. At the refugee center, America’s top diplomat heard harrowing tales from mothers and their children who described long and perilous journeys — and the shock of the sudden disruption and the fear for their lives — after fleeing the devastation of the war. “Near our home we heard bombs,” said Venera Ahmadi, 12, who said she came with her brother and sister, six dogs and seven cats from Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, more than 600 kilometers (372 miles) away. “We walked to the border, I don’t know how many hours. We crossed the border on foot.”Her 16-year-old sister, Jasmine, said: “I was scared I would die.” Natalia Kadygrob, 48, reached the center with her four adopted children from Kropyvnytskyi, almost 800 kilometers (about 500 miles) by bus on their way to her brother’s home in Germany. Her husband stayed behind. “There they bombed planes at the airport,” she said. “Of course we were afraid.”Tatyana, 58, who wouldn’t give her last name, came with her daughter, Anna, 37, and her 6- and 1-year-old daughters, Katya and Kira, from Kharkiv, about 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away. “They were shooting on the street,” Tatyana said. Anna said her home had been destroyed by a shell or a rocket.
She was in the basement with her daughters when the explosion happened. “They should be in school,” Anna said. “They are children, they don’t understand.”
Blinken then met with Kuleba on a visit to the Korczowa border crossing where Polish authorities escorted small groups of refugees — about 20 at a time — across the frontier from the Ukrainian town of Krakovets as sporadic snow flakes fell from a gray sky. Groups mainly of women, children and elderly men — grimly rolling their possessions in luggage and carrying infants and the occasional family pet — made their way into makeshift processing centers set up in tents on Polish territory. The foreign minister said he wanted to convey a simple message: “Ukraine will win this war because this is the people’s war for their land and we defend the right course,.” He added, “The question is the price, the price of our victory.”Kubela said that if Ukraine’s allies “continue to take bold, systemic decisions to step up economic and political pressure on (Russia), if they continue to provide us with necessary weapons, the price will be lower” and “this will save many lives in Ukraine.”Blinken praised Kuleba, President Volodmyr Zelenskyy and other officials for their courage and “inspiring” leadership during the crisis. He said support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia to end the war would increase “until this war of choice is brought to an end.”
Kuleba thanked Blinken for the support so far but said Ukraine needed even more if his country’s predicted victory was not to come at too high a cost. He lamented that NATO on Friday had rejected appeals from nonmember Ukraine and others to set up a no-fly zone over the country. “We are now in the phase where maybe saying ‘No, we’re not going to do that’, but the time will come,” Kuleba said. “It’s again the issue of price. It is the people of Ukraine who will pay the price for the reluctance of NATO to act.” Blinken earlier was in the city of Rzeszow for talks with Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau a day after attending a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels. The alliance pledged to step up support for eastern flank members such as Poland to counter the Russian invasion. Poland is seeking more US forces on its territory, where there are currently more than 10,000 American troops. Rau said Poland had already taken in more than 700,000 refugees from Ukraine and that he expected hundreds of thousands more in the coming weeks unless Russia backs down. “Poland will never recognize territorial changes brought about by unprovoked, unlawful aggression,” he said, adding that his country will demand that alleged Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine will be prosecuted. Morawiecki and Blinken discussed stepping up sanctions and freezes of assets on Russia, which Morawiecki said should be “crushing” for Russia’s economy. No Russian banks should be exempted from the exclusions from the SWIFT system, he said. Currently, all but the largest Russian banks have been kicked off the financial messaging service.

'No good outcome': Putin's unraveling war plan leaves Russia, Ukraine in precarious positions
Tom Vanden Brook/USA Today/March 5, 2022
WASHINGTON – Russian President Vladimir Putin faces a critical juncture in the week-old war he started in Ukraine.
Bad choices, of his own making, are all he has left, experts say.
Unleash the full fury of firepower he's amassed on Ukrainian cities, and Putin risks killing thousands of civilians and destroying homes, buildings and roads. Surround the population centers, choke off water, food and electricity, and Putin assembles the ingredients for a humanitarian catastrophe. Send in ground forces to take control, and Putin will invites a blood bath that kills Ukrainians and sends troops in body bags back to Russia.
Putin's initial plan has unraveled, resting on the assumption that Ukrainian officials and troops would capitulate quickly. Instead, the spirited resistance from Ukrainians and poor performance by his own troops has left Putin and his military commanders frustrated and behind schedule, according to a senior Defense Department official. The Pentagon and military experts expect Putin's forces to regroup, encircle cities and lay siege to them, shelling and bombing them until they surrender. The Russians will likely seize control of the cities. Deep, hardened resistance awaits them.
It won't be an easy fight, said Colin Smith, an expert on the Russian military at the RAND Corp. If Russia allows citizens to flee along the corridors they've agreed to establish, they'll leave behind well-armed fighters in cities like Kyiv.
"Then it's kind of a giant Alamo," Smith said. "It's an Alamo they can sustain for quite a long time if they've got the ammunition. They have the deepest subways in the world. It's their backyard. They could fight for a very, very long time."
There are also indications of poor morale among Russian troops, according to the Defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence findings. Food and fuel shortages along with poor training have contributed to morale problems. The main Russian force arrayed against Kyiv remains stuck about 15 miles from the city's center. "There's enough evidence that there are Russian soldiers who do not want to fight and are not on board with killing Ukrainians," Smith said. "There's equipment that's been left behind, and they didn't just run out of gas. There's equipment that's been just left behind wholesale – perfectly working equipment – with no Russian soldiers in sight."Even if Russian forces overrun Ukraine's major cities, the invasion force invasion force of 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine is not large enough to control a largely hostile population of more than 40 million Ukrainians, said Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"It will likely be difficult for the Russian army to hold territory for long with such a small ratio of soldiers to local inhabitants," Jones said. "High numbers of troops are critical for establishing law and order."
Another problem for a Russian force spread too thin: Ukraine's open western border. U.S. and NATO allies have been funneling weapons, ammunition and supplies through western Ukraine. In the last week, as much as $240 million worth of arms, including anti-tank missiles, have crossed into western Ukraine, according to a second senior Defense Department official. "Russian forces are unable to interdict the growing flow of anti-tank missile systems, surface-to-air missile systems, fighters, artillery, small arms, ammunition, and other material flowing into Ukraine," Jones said. "There is virtually no case since World War II of an occupying army successfully pacifying a local population when the insurgency has support from a great power."Smith raised a darker possibility. Putin has no interest in occupying Ukraine. Instead, Smith said, he wants to crush its government and military, leaving behind a country incapable of aligning with or joining NATO, even though that is not an imminent possibility. "I don't think Russia could ever control Ukraine," Smith said. "That was never their intent. I think they just honestly want Ukraine to be a buffer. Regardless of what government goes back into Ukraine, Ukraine has been left so decapitated it can’t field a viable military. It's not going to join NATO, or NATO decides against even considering it. You've created a wasteland buffer."Putin will attempt to convince Russians that the war in Ukraine was waged to prevent NATO from threatening Russia. "Can he sustain the spin to stay in power? That will be determined on how long this conflict goes on," Smith said. "Time is on Ukraine’s side. Every day that you can stand in his way is in their favor. But it's also another day that another building and hundreds of civilians are at risk. There's no good outcome at this point."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ukraine: Putin's war on Kyiv turning into long slog of death, despair


UN Security Council to Meet Monday on Humanitarian Crisis in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting Monday on the humanitarian crisis triggered in Ukraine by the Russian invasion, diplomats said Friday. After this public session, the 15 members of the council will confer behind closed doors to discuss a possible draft resolution, a diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity told AFP. This latter meeting has been proposed by Mexico and France, who are pushing a draft that calls for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, unhindered flow of humanitarian aid and protection of civilians. But it has run into obstacles, namely a warning from the United States that it will not support such a draft unless it states explicitly that Russia has caused the humanitarian crisis, another diplomat told AFP. France originally wanted a vote last Tuesday but it did not happen. Now, diplomats say France has shifted and in light of US criticism is no longer pushing for a vote as quickly as before. Any draft resolution that criticizes Russia by name is doomed because Russia has veto power on the Security Council.

Russia's War in Ukraine: Latest Developments
Naharnet/March 5, 2022/
Here are the latest developments in Russia's war in Ukraine:
Ceasefire in two cities -
Russia's defense ministry announces a ceasefire to allow civilians in the besieged port city of Mariupol and the town of Volnovakha to evacuate. Mariupol's mayor Vadim Boychenko says evacuations will begin at 0900 GMT. The strategic city of 450,000 people on the Azov Sea, which has suffered intense shelling, has been without electricity, food, water and heating for days in the depth of winter.
Nuclear plant fire -
A fire at Europe's biggest nuclear power station at Zaporizhzhia is put out, with Ukraine accusing Russia of "nuclear terror" in shelling the plant.
Russian troops later take over the site of the reactors, which generate a fifth of Ukraine's electricity, after firefighters say they were prevented from reaching the blaze for hours.
West slams 'recklessness' -
At a United Nations Security Council meeting, the U.S. ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield says Russia's "reckless" overnight attack "represents a dire threat to all of Europe and the world."
Moscow's U.N. ambassador Vassily Nebenzia denies that Russian forces had shelled the plant, saying the statements "are simply untrue."
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), offers to travel to Ukraine to negotiate with Ukraine and Russia on ensuring the safety of nuclear sites.
More talks planned -
One of Ukraine's negotiators says a third round of talks with Russia on ending the fighting is planned this weekend. Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Moscow is ready for dialogue over Ukraine if all its demands are met
Jail threat to journalists -
Award-winning Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta says it will stop reporting on the war and the BBC says it is suspending the work of its journalists in Russia as President Vladimir Putin signs a law imposing harsh jail sentences for the publication of "fake news" about the invasion.
'Not over soon' -
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warns that the war in Ukraine "may not be over soon" and that the U.S. and European allies must sustain tough pressure on Russia until it ends.
G7 threatens further sanctions -
G7 foreign ministers warn that Russia will face further "severe sanctions" for its invasion, and call on Moscow to stop its attacks near nuclear power plants.
NATO rejects no-fly zone -
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg says the alliance will not impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine after Kyiv calls for one to help stop Russia's bombing of its cities.
Russia isolated -
Russia is more isolated than ever after a historic vote at the U.N. Human Rights Council for a probe into violations committed during the war on Ukraine, with only Eritrea siding with Moscow.
47 killed in northern city -
Forty-seven people have been killed following a Russian air strike in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, regional authorities say.
- 'Numerous rapes': Kyiv -
Ukraine's foreign minister claims there have been "numerous cases" of Russian troops raping Ukrainian women and calls for an international tribunal on war crimes.
More than 1.2 million flee -
More than 1.2 million people have fled Ukraine into neighboring countries since Russia invaded last week, the UN says.
Stocks sink, gas, oil soar -
Global stock markets fall, gas prices reach a record high, and oil prices soar as investors fear the risk of an escalation after Russia attacked the nuclear power plant.
Hunger threat -
The United Nations' World Food Program warns about a looming food crisis in Ukraine in conflict areas, while disruptions in production and exports could lead to food insecurity globally.

Cease-fire attempt in Ukraine fails amid Russian shelling
YURAS KARMANAU/Sat., March 5, 2022/ Ukraine (AP)
The first cease-fire attempted in Ukraine to evacuate desperate civilians collapsed Saturday amid ongoing shelling as Russian and Ukrainian officials traded blame and Moscow tightened its grip on the war-battered country's strategic seacoast.
The struggle to enforce the temporary cease-fire in the southeastern port of Mariupol and the eastern city of Volnovakha showed the fragility of efforts to stop the fighting across Ukraine as the number of people fleeing the country reached 1.4 million just 10 days after Russian forces invaded.
Ukrainian officials said Russian artillery fire and airstrikes had prevented residents from leaving before the agreed-to evacuations got underway. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of sabotaging the effort and claimed the actions of Ukraine's leadership called into question the future of the country's statehood. “If this happens, it will be entirely on their conscience,” Putin said. Earlier, the Russian defense ministry said it had agreed with Ukraine on evacuation routes out of the two cities. Before the announcement, Russia's days-long assault had caused growing misery in Mariupol, where AP journalists witnessed doctors make unsuccessful attempts to save the lives of wounded children, pharmacies ran bare and hundreds of thousands of people faced food and water shortages in freezing weather. In comments carried on Ukrainian television, Mariupol Mayor Vadym Boychenko said thousands of residents had gathered for safe passage out of the city when shelling began Saturday. “We value the life of every inhabitant of Mariupol and we cannot risk it, so we stopped the evacuation,” he said. In recent days, Ukraine had urged Moscow to create humanitarian corridors to allow children, women and the older adults to flee the fighting, calling them “question No. 1.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held out the possibility that talks with Russia could result in a sustained, if limited ceasefire Saturday. Elsewhere in the country, Ukrainian forces were holding key cities in central and southeastern Ukraine, while the Russians were trying to keep Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv and Sumy encircled, he said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Saturday said Russia was ready for a third round of talks on that and other issues, but he asserted that “the Ukrainian side, the most interested side here, it would seem, is constantly making up various pretexts to delay the beginning of another meeting.”
Diplomatic efforts continued as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Poland to meet with the prime minister and foreign minister, a day after attending a NATO meeting in Brussels in which the alliance pledged to step up support for eastern flank members.
In the wake of Western sanctions, Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship state-owned airline, announced that it plans to halt all international flights. except to Belarus, starting Tuesday. At least 351 civilians have been confirmed killed since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, but the true number is probably much higher, the U.N. human rights office has said. Zelenskyy said Saturday that that 10,000 Russian troops had died in the war, a claim that could not be independently verified. “We’re inflicting losses on the occupants they could not see in their worst nightmare,” the Ukrainian leader said.
The Russian military, which doesn't offer regular updates on casualties, said Wednesday that 498 of its troops had been killed.
Ukraine's military might is vastly outmatched by Russia's, but its military and volunteer forces have fought back with fierce tenacity since the invasion. Even in cities that have fallen to the Russians, there were signs of resistance. Onlookers in Chernihiv cheered as they watched a Russian military plane fall from the sky and crash, according to video released Saturday by the Ukrainian government. In Kherson, hundreds of people protested the invasion, shouting, “Go home.” A vast Russian armored column threatening Ukraine’s capital remained stalled outside Kyiv. Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said the military situation was more quiet overall Saturday and Russian forces “have not taken active actions since the morning.” While the shelling in Mariupol showed Russia’s determination to cut Ukraine off from access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, further damaging the country’s economy, it was Putin who was most on the offensive with his comments warning that a no fly zone would be considered a hostile act. NATO has said it has no plans to implement such a no fly zone, which would bar all unauthorized aircraft from flying over Ukraine. Western officials have said a main reason is a desire to not widen the war beyond Ukraine. Zelenskyy has pleaded for a no-fly zone over his country and lashed out at NATO for refusing to impose one, warning that “all the people who die from this day forward will also die because of you.”
But as the United States and other NATO members send weapons for Kyiv, the conflict is already drawing in countries far beyond Ukraine’s borders. As Russia cracks down on independent media reporting on the war, more major international news outlets said they were pausing their work there. Putin said nothing warrants imposing martial law at this point. And in a warning of a hunger crisis yet to come, the U.N. World Food Program has said millions of people inside Ukraine, a major global wheat supplier, will need food aid “immediately.”Ukraine’s president was set to brief U.S. senators Saturday by video conference as Congress considers a request for $10 billion in emergency funding for humanitarian aid and security needs. The U.N. Security Council scheduled an open meeting for Monday on the worsening humanitarian situation. The United Nations estimates that 12 million people in Ukraine and 4 million fleeing to neighboring countries in the coming months will need humanitarian aid. Kyiv’s central train station remained crowded with people desperate to flee. “People just want to live,” one woman, Ksenia, said. Elsewhere in the capital, in a sign of nerves near breaking point, two people on a sidewalk froze in their tracks at the sound of a sharp bang. It was a garbage truck upending a bin.

Ukraine Says Mariupol Evacuation Delayed by Russian Ceasefire Violations
Agence France Presse/March 5, 2022/
Officials in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, surrounded by Russian forces, said Saturday they were delaying an evacuation of the civilian population, accusing Moscow's troops of breaking a ceasefire. "Due to the fact that the Russian side does not adhere to the ceasefire and has continued shelling both of Mariupol itself and its environs and for security reasons, the evacuation of the civilian population has been postponed," city officials said in a statement on social media. Mariupol, a southern city of about 450,000 people on the Azov Sea, was scheduled to begin the evacuations at 0900 GMT, after Russian forces agreed a ceasefire to allow civilians to leave the fighting. "We ask all Mariupol residents to disperse and head to places where they can shelter. More information about the evacuation will be posted soon," municipal officials wrote. "At the moment, negotiations are underway with Russia to establish a ceasefire and ensure a safe humanitarian corridor," the statement added. Russia's defense ministry later accused Ukraine nationalists in Mariupol and Volnovakha -- a town of 20,000 people near the rebel center of Donetsk -- of blocking Ukrainians from leaving towards Russia. "The same is happening in Kharkiv and Sumy, as well as in a number of other settlements," the defense ministry said in a statement, referring to two other cities in eastern Ukraine at the center of fighting. It also said it had respected the ceasefire and accused Ukrainian forces of shoring up defenses during the halt in fighting.

EU Suspends Russia, Belarus from Council of Baltic Sea States
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
The European Union said it had joined members of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) in suspending Russia and Belarus from the Council's activities. "This decision is a part of the European Union’s and like-minded partners response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the involvement of Belarus in this unprovoked and unjustified aggression," it said on Saturday. "The EU agrees with the other members of the CBSS (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland and Sweden) that the suspension of Russia and Belarus will remain in force until it is possible to resume cooperation based on respect for fundamental principles of international law," it added. Since President Vladimir Putin's army invaded on February 24, Russia has pummeled Ukrainian cities, killed hundreds of civilians and assaulted Europe's largest atomic power plant. The invasion has drawn condemnation and severe sanctions from Western nations balancing punishment of the Kremlin with fears of a hazardous escalation.

Russian Defense Ministry: Ceasefire to Let Mariupol Residents Evacuate

Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
Russia's defense ministry announced a ceasefire Saturday to allow residents of two besieged cities, including the strategic port city of Mariupol, to evacuate. "Today, March 5, from 10 am Moscow time, the Russian side declares a regime of silence and opens humanitarian corridors for the exit of civilians from Mariupol and Volnovakha," it said.The announcement comes after Mariupol's mayor Vadim Boychenko said Saturday that the city was under "blockade" by Russian forces after days of "ruthless" attacks. While laying siege to Mariupol for days, Russian forces have cut its electricity, food, water, heating and transportation in the depths of winter, prompting comparisons to the Nazi blockade of Leningrad in World War II, AFP reported. "For now, we are looking for solutions to humanitarian problems and all possible ways to get Mariupol out of the blockade," said Boychenko, calling for a ceasefire and a humanitarian corridor for food and medicine. Since President Vladimir Putin's army invaded on February 24, Russia has pummeled Ukrainian cities, killed hundreds of civilians and assaulted Europe's largest atomic power plant. The invasion has drawn condemnation and severe sanctions from Western nations balancing punishment of the Kremlin with fears of a hazardous escalation.

G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting Statement
March 4, 2022 – Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Statement from the Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of the European Union:
We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America, and the High Representative of the European Union reiterate our profound condemnation of Russia’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war of choice against Ukraine, enabled by the Belarussian government.
Russia must immediately stop its ongoing assault against Ukraine, which has dramatically impacted the civilian population and destroyed civilian infrastructure, and immediately withdraw Russia’s military forces. With its further aggression, President Putin has isolated Russia in the world, as evidenced by the overwhelming vote at the United Nations General Assembly condemning Russia’s aggression and calling upon it to withdraw its forces immediately.
We express our heart-felt solidarity with the Ukrainian people and our sympathy with the victims of this war and their families. We underline our unwavering support for Ukraine, its freely-elected government and its brave people at this most difficult time, and express our readiness to assist them further.
We condemn the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure, including schools and hospitals. We call on Russia to uphold its obligation to fully respect international humanitarian law and human rights law. Ukrainian and UN humanitarian agencies, medical personnel, and non-governmental assistance providers must be given safe, rapid and unimpeded access to people in need immediately throughout the entire territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders. We acknowledge the announcement of an arrangement on humanitarian access as an important first step. This will need to be implemented reliably and swiftly. We commit to increasing humanitarian support, as the needs of the Ukrainian people grow due to Russia’s aggression. We urge Russia to stop its attacks especially in the direct vicinity of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants. Any armed attack on and threat against nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the principles of international law. We support the initiative of IAEA Director General Grossi announced today for an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to ensure the safety and security of nuclear facilities in Ukraine.
We are deeply concerned with the catastrophic humanitarian toll taken by Russia’s continuing strikes against the civilian population of Ukraine’s cities. We reemphasize that indiscriminate attacks are prohibited by international humanitarian law. We will hold accountable those responsible for war crimes, including indiscriminate use of weapons against civilians, and we welcome the ongoing work to investigate and gather evidence, including by the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
Russia’s blatant violation of the fundamental principles of international peace and security and the breach of international law have not gone unanswered. We have imposed several rounds of far-reaching economic and financial sanctions. We will continue to impose further severe sanctions in response to Russian aggression, enabled by the Lukashenka regime in Belarus. We wish to make clear to the Russian and Belarusian people that the severe sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus are a consequence of and clear reaction to President Putin’s unprovoked and unjustifiable war against Ukraine. President Putin, and his government and supporters, and the Lukashenka regime, bear full responsibility for the economic and social consequences of these sanctions. We condemn the widespread use of disinformation by the Russian Government and its affiliated media and proxies to support its military aggression against Ukraine. Their steady stream of fabricated claims is putting additional lives at risk. We commit to countering Russia’s disinformation campaign. We reaffirm our support and commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, extending to its territorial waters. We underline that any purported change of status achieved by Russia’s renewed aggression will not be recognized.

The US envoy to Yemen and the Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy
Riyadh - Abdulhadi Habtor/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
A US delegation discussed in Yemen the country’s security, economic and development needs, as well as efforts to combat terrorism and illegal smuggling. US Envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking and Chargé d’Affaires for the US Embassy in the country Cathy Westley conducted a visit to the governorates of Shabwa, Hadramaut and Mahra. On a rare visit to the southeastern Shabwa governorate on Thursday, Lenderking and Westley discussed with the governor, Awad Al-Awlaki, developments on the economic and security levels, in the presence of officials from the Arab Coalition for the Support of Legitimacy in Yemen. Local sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the US delegation “focused on the security aspect, achieving security and stability, and combating terrorism.”Speaking on condition of anonymity, the sources said: “The visit represented support for the governor’s efforts and followed a previous meeting with the chargé d’affaires of the embassy, which took place via video call.” Earlier this year, the Southern Giants Brigades liberated three districts northwest of Shabwa from the grip of the Houthi militia, and advanced towards southern Marib, liberating the Harib district, before stopping at that point. According to the same sources, the US side stressed the importance of “unifying military and security units, completing the implementation of the Riyadh Agreement, and enabling the security and military forces to achieve security and stability.”The US State Department released a statement, saying that Lenderking and Westley concluded their visit to Yemen, during which they met with the Governors of Hadhramaut, Mahra, and Shabwa. “The visit highlighted how Yemenis across the country – even those far from the frontlines – are suffering from years of political and economic instability. It provided an opportunity to discuss the needs in these governorates and efforts to strengthen basic services, economic opportunity, and security, which would allow peace to take root. This visit to Yemen also emphasized the continued challenges posed by terrorism and smuggling, which feed instability,” the statement read. It continued: “The US delegation stressed its support for an inclusive UN-led peace process that incorporates the views of diverse Yemeni groups, including those from Hadhramaut, Mahra, and Shabwa, as well as women, civil society leaders, and representatives of other traditionally marginalized groups.” The US State Department also noted that the visit to Yemen emphasized the importance of the international community continuing to support economic stability and humanitarian relief efforts.

Dozens of Soldiers Killed in Attack on Military Camp in Mali
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
A militant attack on a military camp in central Mali on Friday killed 27 soldiers and 47 "terrorists" were "neutralized", the country's army said, AFP reported. The fighting left 33 soldiers injured, 21 seriously, and seven are missing, the army added in a statement, while 23 other suspects were "neutralized" later in the day. The West African state has been battling militant movements affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group for almost a decade, with around two-thirds of its territory outside state control. A French military source speaking on condition of anonymity said hundreds of militants attacked the camp of around 150 soldiers close to 0600 GMT, putting the death toll between 40 and 50. Mali's army said the attack happened around 0530 GMT. The militants seized 21 vehicles, including tanks, and injured more than 20 soldiers, the source added.
The source said Mali's army did not request support from France's Barkhane military operation because the camp was "where Barkhane was asked not to operate, probably because of the presence of Wagner mercenaries", referring to the Russian paramilitary group.
A military official had told AFP the army and air force "reacted vigorously". The Mondoro base is near Mali's border with Burkina Faso and has previously been targeted by militants fighting the Malian state and foreign forces. Around 50 soldiers died after an attack on Mondoro and the nearby Boulkessi camp in September 2019. France's military said around 100 attackers were "routed" following a mission between Barkhane and Mali's army against militants attempting to take the base in January 2021. Militant and separatist fighters -- some affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the ISIS group -- began operations in Mali in 2012 and the conflict has since spread to neighboring Niger and Burkina Faso, killing and displacing thousands of civilians. Friday's attack comes as the military landscape in the Sahel shifts following France's decision to withdraw from Mali and the arrival of Russian instructors, which the West says are Wagner mercenaries. Diplomatic relations between Bamako's military junta and Paris have deteriorated in recent months as West Africa's regional bloc imposed harsh sanctions on the Malian government's delay to return to civilian rule.

N.Korea Conducts Ninth Missile Test in 2022
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 March, 2022
North Korea conducted its ninth weapons test of the year on Saturday, firing a suspected ballistic missile toward the sea to the east of the Korean peninsula just days before South Korea's presidential election. The launch drew condemnation from governments in the United States, South Korea, and Japan, which fear the North is preparing to conduct a major weapons test in coming months. With denuclearization talks stalled, North Korea conducted a record number of missile launches in January, and after a pause for most of February, resumed tests with a launch on Feb. 27. It appears to be preparing to launch a spy satellite in the near future, and has suggested it could resume testing of nuclear weapons or its longest range intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time since 2017. "The significant pace at which North Korea is developing its missile-launching technology is not something our country and the surrounding regions can overlook," Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said after the latest launch, Reuters reported.
In South Korea, where citizens are already casting early votes ahead of Wednesday's presidential election, the National Security Council (NSC) condemned North Korea's "unprecedented repeated firing of ballistic missiles" as going against peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.
South Korea will "even more closely monitor North Korea's nuclear and missile-related facilities" including its main nuclear reactor facility at Yongbyon and the Punggye-ri nuclear weapons test side, the NSC said, according to a statement from the presidential Blue House.
It was not immediately clear what prompted the increased monitoring of the nuclear sites. On Friday, the US-based 38 North project, which monitors North Korea, said operations at Yongbyon are in full swing, producing fuel for potential nuclear weapons and an expansion of its nuclear production facilities. Punggye-ri has been shuttered since North Korea declared a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons tests in 2018. Leader Kim Jong Un, however, has said he no longer feels bound by that moratorium as denuclearization talks are stalled.
South Korea has reported a series of small, natural earthquakes near Punggye-ri this year, highlighting what experts say is geological instability caused by the last and largest nuclear test in 2017. Experts have also said that instability would not necessarily prevent North Korea from resuming tests at the site.
The US State Department condemned the latest launch as a violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions, which have imposed sanctions on North Korea over its weapons programs. The launch demonstrates the threat that North Korea's illicit weapons of mass destruction and missile programs pose to the its neighbors and the region as a whole, a State Department spokesperson said. The South Korean military said Saturday's launch came from a location near Sunan, where Pyongyang's international airport is located. The region has been the site of previous tests, including the last launch on Feb. 27, when North Korea said it tested systems for a reconnaissance satellite. Kishi said the North Korean projectile reached a height of 550 km (340 miles) and flew 300 km (190 miles), similar to the South Korean military's estimate of 560 km height and 270 km distance.
The launch underscores the challenges facing whoever wins Wednesday's presidential election in South Korea. Both leading candidates have said they would unveil roadmaps to try to jumpstart stalled talks, but have also raised the prospect of a harder line ranging from more openly calling the North's missile tests "provocations" to developing more military capacity for preemptive strikes if necessary to counter an imminent threat. Analysts say North Korea could use the upcoming presidential transition in South Korea or a big national holiday on April 15 to launch a satellite or test fire a major new missile or other weapon. "The timing of North Korea's missile testing may seem odd to us, given the global focus on Ukraine," Jean Lee, a fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center, said on Twitter. "But it makes perfect sense in North Korea, where scientists are focused on perfect new weapons for Kim to show off at a big military parade in mid-April." The United States has said it is open to talks without preconditions, but Pyongyang says talks are only possible after Washington and its allies drop hostile policies.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on March 05-06/2022
Question: "What are the different types of fasting?"
GotQuestions.org?/March 06/2022
Answer: Usually, fasting is the abstaining from food for a certain period of time. There are different types of fasting in the Bible, however, and not all of them involve food. Many people in the Bible fasted, including Moses, David, and Daniel in the Old Testament and Anna, Paul, and Jesus Christ in the New Testament. Many important figures in Christian history attested to fasting’s value, as do many Christians today.
Biblical fasting is often closely linked to repentance, as in the examples of David, the nation of Israel, and the city of Nineveh. Fasting is also related to passionate prayer, as in the examples of King Jehoshaphat and Queen Esther. Biblical fasting comes from a humble heart seeking God (Isaiah 58:3–7). John MacArthur comments on Isaiah 58: “The people complained when God did not recognize their religious actions, but God responded that their fastings had been only half-hearted. Hypocritical fasting resulted in contention, quarreling, and pretense, excluding the possibility of genuine prayer to God. Fasting consisted of more than just an outward ritual and a mock repentance, it involved penitence over sin and consequent humility, disconnecting from sin and oppression of others, feeding the hungry, and acting humanely toward those in need.”
The regular fast is done by abstaining from all food, both solid and liquid, except for water. This is the type of fasting Judah’s King Jehoshaphat called for when his country was confronted with invasion (2 Chronicles 20:3). The Lord defeated their enemies, and the men of Judah blessed the Lord (2 Chronicles 20:24–27). After the Babylonian Captivity, the people returning to Jerusalem prayed and fasted, asking God for His protection on their journey (Ezra 8:21). The Lord Jesus fasted during His forty days in the wilderness being tempted by Satan (Luke 4:2). When Jesus was hungry, Satan tempted Him to turn the stones into bread, to which Jesus replied, “Man shall not live by bread alone” (Luke 4:4).
Another type of biblical fasting is the partial fast. The prophet Daniel spent three weeks fasting from certain foods. In Daniel 10, the prophet says, “I, Daniel, mourned for three weeks. I ate no choice food; no meat or wine touched my lips; and I used no lotions at all until the three weeks were over” (Daniel 10:2–3). Note that Daniel’s fast to express his grief on this occasion only omitted “choice” food, and it also involved relinquishing the use of oils and “lotions” for refreshment. Today, many Christians follow this example and abstain from certain foods or activities for a short time, looking to the Lord for their comfort and strength.
Also mentioned in the Bible is the absolute fast, or the full fast, where no food or water is consumed. When Esther discovered the plan for all the Jews to be killed in Persia, she and her fellow Jews fasted from food and water for three days before she entered the king’s courts to ask for his mercy (Esther 4:16). Another example of an absolute fast is found in the story of Saul’s conversion. The murderous Saul encountered Jesus in His glory on the road to Damascus. “For three days he was blind, and did not eat or drink anything” (Acts 9:9). Immediately following that time of blindness and fasting, Saul dedicated his life to preaching Jesus Christ.
In the cases of Esther and Saul, the absolute fast only lasted three days. However, Moses and Elijah took part in miraculous, forty-day absolute fasts. When Moses met God on the mountaintop to receive the tablets of stone, he ate no bread and drank no water (Deuteronomy 9:9). And, after Elijah defeated the prophets of Baal on Mt. Carmel, infuriating Queen Jezebel, Elijah fled for his life and spent forty days of fasting in the wilderness (1 Kings 19).
The Bible also mentions a sexual fast, although not by that name. In Exodus 19:15, the people of Israel were to prepare for their encounter with the Lord at Mt. Sinai, and part of their preparation was to abstain from sexual relations for three days. And in 1 Corinthians 7:5 Paul says that a married couple can mutually agree to abstain from sex for a short period of time in order to devote themselves to prayer. But then they are to “come together again so that Satan will not tempt you because of your lack of self-control.”
The purpose of fasting is not to get God to respond as a genie in a bottle to grant our every wish. Fasting, whether it is regular, partial, absolute, or sexual, is a seeking after God’s heart, all other blessings and benefits being secondary to God Himself. This is what sets apart biblical fasting from other religious and cultural practices around the world.

Putin Is Making a Mockery of the United Nations/The Biden administration must finally recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot do.
Richard Goldberg and John Hardie/The Dispatch/March 05/2022 |
Members of the U.N. Security Council sat around a table in New York last week, pleading with Moscow to call off its assault on Ukraine. Ambassador after ambassador took turns vowing Russia would be isolated on the world stage for such a blatant violation of international law. Some even warned the U.N. would suffer the fate of its failed predecessor, the League of Nations. One hour into debate, Vladimir Putin announced a full-scale invasion.
The meeting was surreal, and not just because the entire proceeding was chaired by Russia, which held the Security Council’s rotating presidency in February. The imbroglio exposed as hollow the mistaken belief—far too common in Western nations, including here in the United States—that public shaming in multilateral organizations can deter ruthless dictators bent on war. Indeed, Putin announced the beginning of Russia’s invasion just as the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Linda Thomas-Greenfield, delivered her speech urging Russia to de-escalate. Moments later, Russian missiles began raining down on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities.
Of course, this is hardly the first time Russia has made a mockery of an institution established to defend international peace and security. Russia also routinely wields its Security Council veto to shield itself and other rogue regimes from international accountability, for example by blocking U.N. sanctions against Syria’s Assad regime for its use of chemical weapons against its own people.
Indeed, last week’s meeting was just the latest reminder of how Russia, China, and other U.S. adversaries flout international law while simultaneously manipulating international organizations to serve their narrow ends. Unfortunately, despite having proclaimed engagement at the U.N. to be an important plank of its foreign policy agenda, the Biden administration’s international-organizations strategy is broken.
“Diplomacy is back at the center of our foreign policy,” President Biden declared shortly after taking office. Yet when it comes to the U.N. system, U.S. diplomacy needs to do a better job of defending American interests and values.
The U.N. Human Rights Council is case in point. In 2019, Secretary-General António Guterres appointed a former Russian government official to be the director-general of the U.N. office in Geneva. That mission is also home to the Human Rights Council — a deeply flawed body to which Russia was elected in 2020 despite an abysmal human rights record that has only worsened since.
This irony may soon become even grimmer. A recent U.S. letter to the U.N. high commissioner for human rights, whose office serves as the UNHRC’s secretariat, warned that Russian forces “are creating lists of identified Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps following a military occupation.” The Russians also “will likely use lethal measures to disperse peaceful protests or otherwise counter peaceful exercises of perceived resistance from civilian populations,” the letter said. The International Criminal Court’s top prosecutor says there’s already “a reasonable basis to believe that both alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity have been committed in Ukraine.”
Nevertheless, when Kyiv requested an emergency UNHRC debate on February 24, the council didn’t hold the meeting until March 3, in order to “be as non-disruptive as possible to [its] programme of work.” As human rights activist Hillel Neuer noted, the council has previously convened emergency debates on the same day—when the crisis in question involved criticizing Israel.
Yet instead of recognizing the UNHRC is broken, Biden rejoined the council earlier this year, pledging to reform it from within. Last month, a State Department spokesperson declared that the council “plays a crucial role in promoting respect for human rights as well as fundamental freedoms around the world.”
Although Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield has called for Russia to be isolated at the United Nations, the Biden administration last week issued a list of exemptions to Russia’s supposed diplomatic isolation. At the top of the list: U.S. diplomats are authorized to keep working with Russia at the U.N., other international organizations and in multilateral settings like the Iran nuclear talks.
The UNHRC isn’t the only organization where Moscow enjoys influence. For example, Russia serves on the executive board of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, which Biden wants to rejoin this year and subsidize with a taxpayer check for $500 million. Moscow also sits on the decision-making council of the International Civil Aviation Organization, while a former Russian nuclear utility official serves as deputy director general and head of the department of nuclear energy at the International Atomic Energy Agency. A longtime Russian diplomat currently serves as U.N. under-secretary-general for counterterrorism. These posts add to Russia’s international prestige and, in some cases, give its officials access to sensitive information.
Russia, meanwhile, is running Rashid Ismailov, a former Russian government official and executive at China’s Huawei, to become the next director general of the International Telecommunication Union, a key standard-setting body for the internet, 5G, and other digital technologies. If he wins, Ismailov would be well-positioned to support Moscow’s longstanding efforts to reduce U.S. influence in internet governance and shape international norms pertaining to cybersecurity.
As Russian forces march deeper into Ukraine, now is the time for Washington to fix its international-organizations strategy.
The U.S. and its allies need a comprehensive, coordinated strategy to advance the interests of free nations within these organizations while countering the corrosive influence of Russia and China. U.S. leadership will be critical, as many other countries will be reluctant to confront Moscow and Beijing. Indeed, while the U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution this week deploring Russian “aggression against Ukraine,” it amounted to little more than a strongly worded letter, recommending no consequences for Russia’s actions.
Congress, meanwhile, must better calculate the costs and benefits of providing billions of dollars to agencies manipulated by U.S. adversaries—and wield its power of the purse accordingly. And the Biden administration must finally recognize what engagement at the U.N. can and cannot do.
An international system that Putin and other dictators can flout or corrupt with impunity is doomed to fail. So is an American international-organizations strategy that mistakes “engagement” for results and relies on corrupted institutions to defend itself and its democratic allies. That reality was laid bare the minute Russia invaded Ukraine.
*Richard Goldberg, a former National Security Council official, is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where John Hardie is research manager and analyst. Follow Richard on Twitter @rich_goldberg. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iran Approaches the Nuclear Threshold /Washington’s Narrowing Policy Options
Andrea Stricker and Anthony Ruggiero/Memo/March 05/2022 |
The clerical regime in Iran is approaching the point at which no outside power could prevent it from building nuclear weapons. Iran would then be a nuclear threshold state. As Tehran approaches that threshold, the United States will face an increasingly difficult choice between allowing the regime to cross over it or taking assertive measures — including potential military strikes — to stop Iran from going nuclear.
In an effort to revive a watered-down version of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Biden administration has relaxed pressure on the Islamic Republic and fully committed itself to negotiations.1 Senior U.S. officials have criticized Iranian negotiators for obstructionism and delay, but the administration does not acknowledge that by drawing out the talks, Tehran can position itself to reach the nuclear threshold.2 At present, if the regime decides to make its first nuclear weapon, it may need as little as three weeks to produce enough fissile material.3
This memorandum documents the acceleration of Tehran’s nuclear program since Joe Biden’s election.4 The clerical regime understands that it can provoke the United States at minimal cost, since Biden is committed to a conciliatory policy that relies on goodwill, not leverage, to advance negotiations. To reverse this dynamic, the United States and its European partners will have to discard the JCPOA framework and implement a full-spectrum pressure campaign that confronts Tehran with the prospect of bankruptcy and isolation unless it relinquishes all pathways to a nuclear weapons capability.
Defining Threshold Status
To reach the nuclear threshold, a state requires fissile material and the ability to weaponize it. In addition, a threshold state must be able to dash to nuclear weapons quickly enough that foreign powers would not be able to disrupt its breakout efforts.5
The Islamic Republic has already enriched enough uranium that it could produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) for at least four bombs. The short dash to producing WGU shows that Tehran has overcome the most difficult challenge that faces an aspiring threshold state. If Iran decided to produce WGU, the clerical regime would likely need additional time to build a functional warhead, but the technical challenges are not prohibitive given the regime’s past and possibly ongoing weaponization work. Iran is also expanding its ballistic missile program, which it could adapt for use as delivery vehicles.
Behavior and intentions often distinguish aspiring threshold states from latent powers. Several states, like Germany, Brazil, and the Netherlands, produce fissile material and could launch a nuclear weapons program, but have chosen instead to adhere firmly to their non-proliferation commitments. Scholars refer to this group as latent nuclear states.6 Tehran, by contrast, has pursued clandestine enrichment and weaponization programs, indicating a lack of peaceful intent.7 The Iranian program is also the subject of an ongoing investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which Tehran persistently obstructs.
Iran is currently the only state actively advancing toward threshold status.8 The IAEA has investigated Tehran’s nuclear activities since 2002 but has never been able to assure the international community of the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran. The Islamic Republic had a nuclear weapons program known as the Amad Plan until 2003, after which the clerical regime planned to downsize and disperse parts of the program to better camouflage it.9 Tehran likely continued weaponization activities at both civilian and military institutions. The entity reportedly in charge of such efforts is the U.S.-sanctioned Organization of Defense Innovation and Research, whose Persian acronym is SPND.10 Given the regime’s obstruction of IAEA inspections, it is not known how close Iran has come to weaponization.
Determining the point at which a state reaches the threshold is not a purely technical exercise, since it also depends on the intent of a government — specifically, whether it has decided to pursue a weapons program or whether ambiguity offers the government better advantages. Another factor is the defensive measures in place to protect the program and the offensive capabilities of those who wish to disrupt it. U.S. military leaders have expressed readiness to destroy the clerical regime’s nuclear capabilities if the president directed them to do so, but the estimated time necessary to carry out such a mission remains classified.11
Additional uncertainty stems from the potential for incomplete intelligence reporting about a potential decision by Tehran to pursue a breakout. States may gather information indicating that Iran has begun producing WGU, yet the intelligence may be vague or unreliable overall, including key details about timing and the facilities that Tehran would use. In such a scenario, Iran may restrict IAEA monitoring or delay IAEA access to declared nuclear sites in order to divert fissile material for further enrichment at a clandestine plant. The regime could also pursue enrichment and weaponization at highly fortified military sites. For example, it could make WGU at its underground Fordow enrichment plant.
The JCPOA: Iran’s Patient Pathway to the Nuclear Threshold
The imperative of keeping Tehran away from the nuclear threshold drove the Obama administration’s negotiation of the JCPOA, even though the administration’s efforts were ultimately insufficient. U.S. negotiators sought to ensure that Iran would remain at least 12 months away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. Independent calculations put Iran’s breakout time under the JCPOA closer to seven months.12 Yet even this achievement would be temporary; the scheduled expiration (or “sunset”) of the JCPOA’s key restrictions would eventually bring Tehran’s breakout time close to zero.
Details aside, the JCPOA legitimized Iran’s advance toward the nuclear threshold despite the regime’s extensive record of illicit nuclear activities. Previously, there had been an international consensus enshrined in UN Security Council resolutions that Iran should stop enriching uranium completely.13 The JCPOA not only allowed the Islamic Republic to maintain an enrichment program with a breakout time of 12 months or less, but also paved the way toward a breakout time of zero, since restrictions on enrichment would gradually phase out from 2024 to 2031. Nor did the JCPOA prohibit Iran from carrying out research and development on advanced centrifuges, stockpiling materiel and equipment for advanced machine production, and, in 2027, enriching uranium in large numbers of advanced centrifuges.14
Under the terms of the JCPOA, Iran could also manufacture up to 2,400 of its fastest advanced centrifuges — the IR-6 and IR-8 — by 2029. In 2025, the “snapback” mechanism that permits JCPOA member states to reimpose prior UN Security Council sanctions on Iran is slated to terminate; Iran would be freed from international oversight of its nuclear-related imports. All told, the nuclear accord ensures that by 2031, when the last of its sunsets takes effect, Iran would have a massive enrichment capability and an unstoppable ability to break out of its nonproliferation commitments or even sneak out by using nuclear assets at covert facilities, undetected by international monitors.15
The JCPOA prohibited weaponization activities, but the deal’s weak monitoring and verification provisions made this irrelevant. The Islamic Republic insisted it would never allow inspections of its military facilities, regardless of what the deal stated. Neither the IAEA nor other parties to the deal challenged this assertion. The Obama administration and its JCPOA partners also quashed the IAEA’s ongoing investigation of Tehran’s previous nuclear weapons activities. The deal even left intact the fortified underground enrichment facility at Fordow, designed to protect Iran’s nuclear program during a potential dash toward the threshold and beyond. Under the JCPOA, Tehran’s economic and military power was set to grow in the absence of sanctions, further adding to the difficulty of keeping it away from the nuclear threshold.
Iran’s Muted Response to Trump, Escalation of Pressure on Biden
In May 2018, citing, among other objections, the JCPOA’s failure to stop Iran’s nuclear research and development, President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal. Tehran responded with graduated, incremental nuclear advances.16 In May 2019, the regime announced a plan to incrementally surpass JCPOA limits on a range of nuclear activities, with new advances every 90 days. The clerical regime began installing more and different types of centrifuges than permitted by the JCPOA, gradually increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, and increased uranium enrichment to 4.5 percent purity — exceeding the deal’s cap of 3.67 percent. These incremental steps continued through the U.S. presidential election in November 2020.17
The regime likely refrained from major advances to preserve the option of reviving the nuclear deal under a future administration. Tehran may also have wanted to avoid provoking a crisis during Trump’s tenure, given his unpredictability and his readiness to impose harsh economic sanctions.18 The value of patience also became clear when Biden pledged as a presidential candidate to reverse Trump’s Iran policy, which Biden characterized as a “dangerous failure.” Instead, Biden proposed that both Washington and Tehran return to the JCPOA, a move that would yield relief for Tehran from the most punishing U.S. sanctions.19
The clerical regime began testing Biden even before he formally took office. In January 2021, Iran began enriching uranium to 20 percent purity at the Fordow enrichment plant. Enrichment to 20 percent requires 90 percent of the effort to reach weapons-grade purity. In February, Tehran began producing uranium metal, a material used in the cores of nuclear weapons. That same month, the Islamic Republic stopped implementing the IAEA’s Additional Protocol (AP), a set of enhanced verification measures integral to the agency’s monitoring of nuclear programs. Tehran had agreed to implement the AP as part of the JCPOA. The regime also halted most JCPOA monitoring measures. In April, Iran started enriching uranium to the highest level ever achieved by the regime: 60 percent. This level constitutes 99 percent of the effort necessary to produce WGU.20
These unmistakable moves toward a nuclear weapons capability should have provoked a strong reaction from the Biden administration and the IAEA’s Board of Governors, which has responsibility for holding member states accountable to their nuclear nonproliferation obligations. The United States and its key allies hold seats on the board. Yet the Biden administration made sure the board would not punish or even censure Iran at any of its quarterly meetings in 2021.21 Tehran saw that it could advance with impunity toward threshold status.
In November 2021, the Institute for Science and International Security assessed that following a decision to produce enough WGU for one nuclear weapon, Iran could do so within three weeks by further enriching — using currently operating centrifuges — its stockpile of near-20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium. Within three-and-a-half months, the institute found, Iran could produce enough material for three weapons, and after six months, it would have enough WGU for a fourth.22 By prolonging negotiations in Vienna, the Islamic Republic brought its breakout time close to zero while earning billions of dollars from oil exports thanks to Biden’s relaxation of sanctions as a goodwill gesture.
The U.S. negotiating team now acknowledges that restoring the JCPOA’s breakout time of 7-12 months is no longer feasible, given Iran’s advances.23 Washington reportedly estimates a breakout time of six-to-nine months under a revived accord, while Israel’s estimate is reportedly four-to-six months.24 These lower estimates are likely based on Tehran’s production and operation of hundreds of advanced centrifuge machines in violation of the JCPOA.25
Tehran reportedly refuses to destroy these advanced centrifuges as part of a new agreement, instead proposing their retention in storage, from which the regime could remove them at any time. If the Biden administration accepts that demand as part of its bid to revive a watered-down JCPOA, the administration would solidify a shorter breakout time for Tehran. This timeline could shorten further as Iran, per the JCPOA’s terms, manufactures and operates additional advanced centrifuges.26
In fact, the administration’s reason for not demanding that Iran destroy advanced centrifuges likely stems from the fact that the JCPOA permits their redeployment in just a few years. Moreover, because of Iran’s reduction of the IAEA’s monitoring, the Biden administration cannot assert with confidence that Tehran does not have clandestine stockpiles of advanced centrifuges that it could deploy to a covert enrichment facility. With its deficient monitoring and verification protocols, the JCPOA or an even weaker version is unlikely to facilitate the IAEA’s detection of such activity.
Becoming a nuclear threshold state requires weaponization capabilities in addition to fissile material. Iran’s stonewalling of the IAEA has ensured there are no reliable estimates of its weaponization timeline. David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security calculates that Tehran could explode its first crude nuclear test device within six months.27 The Islamic Republic has also continued to develop potentially nuclear-capable missiles, since the JCPOA imposes no restrictions on its missile program. According to Israeli estimates, Iran may be able to field a missile-deliverable nuclear weapon in one to two years.28
Policy Recommendations
Policy options narrow considerably when responding to a state that is advancing rapidly toward the nuclear threshold. Only senior officials in the U.S. government know how much time the Pentagon needs to prepare and carry out sufficient military strikes to prevent Iran from successfully sprinting toward a nuclear weapon. If the Islamic Republic chooses to move closer to threshold status — or dash to nuclear weapons — there would likely be substantial uncertainty surrounding its precise intentions and activities. In such a scenario, Tehran may not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a move that could solidify Western resolve against the regime. Amid this uncertainty, President Biden might have to choose between carrying out military strikes based on incomplete or conflicting information or acquiescing to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons. It would be preferable to keep Tehran far away from the threshold so that an American president never reaches this wrenching decision point.
The Israeli response to the Vienna negotiations is revealing, given Tehran’s professed interest in destroying the Jewish state. Jerusalem has at least as strong an interest as Washington has in extending Iran’s nuclear breakout timeline. Yet even as Tehran approaches the nuclear threshold, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett reportedly told President Biden in February that Israel prefers a no-deal scenario and a campaign of multilateral pressure on Tehran.29 Bennett almost certainly wants to avoid a rift in U.S.-Israel relations like the one that emerged in 2015 when Israel opposed the JCPOA.30 Yet Bennett would still reject a deal that temporarily increased Iran’s breakout time, only to let it approach zero once again after a few years, which would be all but inevitable with the deal’s expiring provisions.31
The flawed premise of the JCPOA and of the Biden administration’s Iran policy is that Iran can both keep its uranium enrichment program — which the JCPOA allows to expand again starting in 2024 and to grow substantially from 2027 to 2031 — and be kept away from the nuclear weapons threshold.32 Instead of pursuing a defective and temporary accord, the United States should seek to restore the international consensus — embodied in successive UN Security Council resolutions from 2006 to 2010 — that the world cannot trust the Islamic Republic with an enrichment program.33 The regime’s relentless stonewalling of IAEA investigations demonstrates its bad faith. Furthermore, an energy-rich country like Iran has no economic need for an enrichment program. The purpose of Iran’s enrichment program has always been to build nuclear weapons.34
If and when the United States and the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) recognize the need for a fundamental rethinking of their Iran policy, they should relaunch the kind of comprehensive economic, financial, and political pressure campaign that forced Iran back to the negotiating table during Barack Obama’s tenure. This time, however, the campaign should persist until Tehran accepts the dismantling of its enrichment program and related measures to permanently cut off all pathways to a nuclear weapon. The Iranian economy has begun a tentative recovery thanks to Biden’s relaxation of sanctions, but it remains vulnerable after a deep multi-year recession.35 The United States and the E3 should invite Russia and China to support their efforts, but only if they accept the premise of a permanent end to the Iranian nuclear threat and do not act as spoilers.
Even without Russian and Chinese support, the United States and the E3 can restore prior UN sanctions by invoking the snapback clause of UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Doing so would also restore all prior UN resolutions against Iran, which codify the principle of zero enrichment. Restoring multilateral sanctions would present Russia and China with a fait accompli regarding sanctions enforcement and provide a basis for further action by the United States and E3 to penalize non-compliance.
Congress can play an important role in encouraging the Biden administration to support a renewed pressure campaign. From 2009 through 2012, a bipartisan coalition in Congress played an indispensable role in creating the statutory framework for the pressure campaign that forced Iran back to the negotiating table. If there is renewed bipartisanship, Congress can prove similarly effective once again.
The most potent tool currently at the disposal of Congress is the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015, or INARA, which gives Congress statutory review authority over any deal. Specifically, INARA requires the president to submit to Congress within five days any agreement with Iran and “all related materials and annexes.” There is then a 90-day review period during which the House and Senate hold hearings on the agreement and then debate it.36 Finally, INARA ensures a vote on whether to lift sanctions. Since the president can veto a resolution prohibiting him from lifting sanctions, a two-thirds majority in both chambers can block a deal. Thus, bipartisanship is essential. Even so, significant opposition sends a clear message to Tehran that a deal may last only as long as Biden remains in the White House.37 If the administration prefers an enduring agreement, it should stop relying on a partisan minority and submit a stronger accord to the Senate for ratification as a formal treaty. Ratification by the Senate would necessitate a bipartisan consensus on the merits of an accord and render it far less susceptible to cancellation by the next president.
Finally, the United States should continue — on its own and together with Israel — to increase the credible threat of military action should Iran move closer to the nuclear threshold or sprint to nuclear weapons. Specifically, Washington and Jerusalem should continue U.S.-Israeli military exercises practicing the destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities.38 The United States and Israel should also consider actions short of military strikes, such as cyber-attacks and sabotage of nuclear or nuclear-related sites, to delay the Islamic Republic’s progress and remind the regime that its malign activity will not come without cost.
Still, it would be far better to avoid the risk war of war by discarding the JCPOA framework and implementing a comprehensive pressure campaign that confronts Tehran with the prospect of bankruptcy and isolation unless it dismantles its enrichment program. The Biden administration should take all related measures necessary to ensure that the world’s most prolific state sponsor of terrorism can never reach the nuclear weapons threshold.

Erdoğan, in Trouble at Home, Fishing for Trouble in the Aegean
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/March 05/2022
At home, Turks are economically paralyzed: the official annual inflation rate is running at 48% (although independent researchers measure it at 114%); there are basic commodity shortages; gasoline, natural gas and electricity costs have doubled within a year; the national currency has lost half of its value against major Western currencies, and per capita GDP has been in freefall for the past seven years. The minimum wage, at barely $375 a month, is, after Albania, the second lowest in continental Europe. This gloomy picture has emerged just 16 months before Turkey's Islamist autocrat, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will go for an all-or-nothing election in June 2023.
Like any other third-world autocrat, Erdoğan blames the economic collapse on "foreign powers plotting against Turkey's graceful rise."
[Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail] Demir's office is running hundreds of armament programs. But observers have noticed a recent tendency to give prominence to naval programs targeting exclusively Greece, as Turkey does not have other littoral rivals.
Turkish military and defense procurement officials are working day and night to run scores of other, smaller naval programs, despite the country's severe economic constraints. This expansion reflects a political process of prioritizing guns over butter -- all as theater for Turkish voters before they go to the ballot box. Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail Demir, says that Turkey will keep working to have a stronger and more deterrent naval force in the "blue homeland," a term Turks use for the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas. Demir's office is running hundreds of armament programs. Pictured: The Turkish Navy minesweeper Akcay enters the Russian port of Novorossiysk, for military exercises in the Black Sea, on March 6, 2019.
To this day, the Turks are proud that their Ottoman ancestors had made the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas "a Turkish lake." To this day, they lament that the Aegean is now widely a Greek lake and the Mediterranean is anything but a Turkish lake.
A century after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and the birth of the modern Turkish Republic, Turkey's irredentist Islamists are flexing their muscles not exactly to make the Aegean a Turkish lake again, but to distract the Turkish masses who many well be economically disgruntled into embracing the illusion that a neo-Ottoman Armada is back on the blue waters.
At home, Turks are economically paralyzed: the official annual inflation rate is running at 48% (although independent researchers measure it at 114%); there are basic commodity shortages; gasoline, natural gas and electricity costs have doubled within a year; the national currency has lost half of its value against major Western currencies, and per capita GDP has been in freefall for the past seven years. The minimum wage, at barely $375 a month, is, after Albania, the second lowest in continental Europe. This gloomy picture has emerged just 16 months before Turkey's Islamist autocrat, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will go for an all-or-nothing election in June 2023.
Like any other third-world autocrat, Erdoğan blames the economic collapse on "foreign powers plotting against Turkey's graceful rise." He often describes his unorthodox economic policies as an "economic war of independence." He needs more than that, however, to make poverty-stricken Turks feel better. How about: "Our mighty navy is making the Aegean a Turkish lake again"? Not bad, especially if you think that the average Turk is a seventh-grade drop-out who would not bother to check the map and see that some Greek islands are swimming distance from the Turkish shore.
Feeling threatened, traditional Aegean rival Greece in January showcased its newly acquired defense capabilities by flying six Rafale fighter jets over the Acropolis hours after they arrived from France -- along with a bill for €11.5 billion.
"The six planes that Greece bought are too few to face Turkey," responded Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar.
Echoing the minister, Turkey's top defense procurement official, Ismail Demir, said that Turkey will keep working to have a stronger and more deterrent naval force in the "blue homeland," a term Turks use for the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas.
Demir's office is running hundreds of armament programs. But observers have noticed a recent tendency to give prominence to naval programs targeting exclusively Greece, as Turkey does not have other littoral rivals.
In December, the procurement agency SSB invited bids for the construction of three Turkish-designed Istanbul-class frigates to join five others under its national corvette (MILGEM) program. The frigates are designed for reconnaissance and surveillance, target identification, early warning, base and port defense, anti-submarine, anti-aircraft, surface warfare, amphibious operations and patrolling missions.
Turkey's decision to have three frigates built -- instead of one at a time of budgetary constraints -- has a geo-strategic message. "The political authority is telling Turkey's regional adversaries that it will not reconcile in geo-strategic disputes in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean seas," Özgür Ekşi, editor-in-chief of the defense news website TurDef, told this author.
There are other Turkish naval programs signaling a return to tensions on the Aegean Sea.
In August 2021, Turkish shipyard Ares said it designed and developed an unmanned anti-submarine warfare vessel. Ares said the ULAQ DSH/ASW successfully passed laser-guided firing tests. In October, Ares and defense technology company Meteksan Savunma launched a surface-warfare version of the ULAQ: Turkey's first armed unmanned surface vessel. The system reportedly has a 400-kilometer range and can travel at speeds up to 65 kph.
In January, Turkey also commissioned into service the country's first intelligence-gathering ship, TCG Ufuk, which will be jointly operated by the National Intelligence Organization and the Turkish Navy.
Also in January, the government announced that it would start the construction of a prototype ship that eventually will become part of a planned fleet of "Turkish-type assault boats." Military analysts say these boats will "destroy/inactivate enemy assets at seas."
Shortly after that, the Turkish Navy decided to replace its ageing inventory of about 350 U.S.-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles with the Atmaca, an indigenous anti-ship missile that reportedly has a range of over 220km, can cruise at an altitude as low as three meters and "navigate around islands and islets," a not-so-hidden reference to their use in the Aegean Sea. It will be fitted aboard the Ada-class corvettes, the Istanbul-class frigates and the TF2000-class destroyers. Then there is what will become the Turkish Navy's jewel, the TCG Anadolu, a $1.2 billion landing helicopter dock. Ankara recently decided to convert this ambitious vessel into a drone carrier, as a Turkish drone manufacturer, Baykar, has been building TB3 drones exclusively for the Anadolu. The Anadolu is expected to become operational within a year.Turkish military and defense procurement officials are working day and night to run scores of other, smaller naval programs, despite the country's severe economic constraints. This expansion reflects a political process of prioritizing guns over butter -- all as theater for Turkish voters before they go to the ballot box.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
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Putin and the Law of Unintended Consequences
Amir Taheri/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
As Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine enters its second week, the naughty little law of unintended consequences is lifting its head above the parapet.
The most striking illustration of this so far is the debunking of Putin’s brazen claim that there is and has never been a Ukrainian nation and that Ukraine is nothing but Russia misspelled. Putin insisted that Ukraine was nothing but a creation of Lenin, ignoring the fact that it was Lenin who signed away Ukraine to the Germans in the Brest-Litovsk Treaty.
Putin also claimed that Ukraine has “always been part of Russia”, although the principality of Kyiv appeared before any Russian identity took shape. Ukraine and Russia, along with numerous other ethnic groups and nations, had been parts of the Tsarist and then Soviet Empires but neither had been a part of the other. For a while, much of Ukraine was part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and, in fact, it was against Austrian rule that Ukrainian nationalism first took shape.
To be sure Russian and Ukrainian languages are as close to each other as are American English and UK English. But, although some of the greatest writers in Russian, notably Nikolai Gogol and Isaac Babel were Ukrainians, Ukraine has had its distinct literature since the 18th Century. Putin’s invasion has reminded many Ukrainians of their rich heritage. In the past few days people in many parts of Ukraine have been reading, reciting and signing some of the patriotic poems written by Taras Shevchenko, Levko Borovykovsky and Tomasz Padura. Rather than burying Ukrainian identity under his bombs, Putin may have given it new vigor. Putin wanted to nip Ukraine’s European aspirations in the bud. There, too, he may have achieved the opposite. Ukrainians have suddenly realized that looking east towards Russia means suffering invasion and colonization while looking west towards Europe could mean freedom and prosperity. There were no lines of Ukrainians seeking shelter in Russia or Belarus; the long queues were at Polish and Romanian borders. President Volodymyr Zelensky was reflecting his people’s wishes when he asked for an immediate membership of the European Union.
It was only year ago when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mocked the European Union as a “sinking ship” from which people were trying to jump off, starting with Brexit. Last week, however, even “Brexit Boris” was conscious of a collective European responsibility to defend the rule of law.
For years, Putin had worked to “de-couple” the United States and the European Union, hoping that, without the American behemoth, the European “midgets” would be easily cowed. The current crisis, however, showed that the Europeans can take the lead in being much tougher than the Americans under the risk-averse Joe Biden.
Putin also wanted to destroy NATO’s image as a protective shield for democratic nations. After all Donald Trump had declared NATO to be “irrelevant” while French President Emmanuel Macron had pronounced it “brain dead”. Inside Ukraine many did not see why joining NATO would be in their nation's interest. Now, all that has changed as the octogenarian alliance is experiencing a second youth.
Even Germany under a Social Democrat Chancellor, has suddenly decided to drop seven decades of anti-military posture with a whopping $100 billion rearmament project. Even non-NATO European nations such as Austria, Sweden and Finland have fallen into line to oppose the aggressor. In European countries not yet in NATO the accelerator is pressed for faster membership. Unwittingly, perhaps, Putin has become a salesman for NATO insurance policies.
European popular reaction to Putin’s invasion is in sharp contrast with how Europe reacted to Hitler’s annexation of Austria (Anschluss) in 1938. For 20 years the Putin wolf played grandmother in disguise.
That disguise enabled him to get away with invading Georgia, dominating Belarus, massacring Syrians, propelling the mullahs of Tehran, annexing Crimea, taking joyrides in various parts of Africa, poisoning people in Europe, and trying to disrupt elections in several countries through cyber-attacks. All that time almost a quarter of his income came from oil and gas sales to Western democracies-oil and gas produced thanks to Western capital, technology, management and marketing.
Now, however, even the most naïve in the West know where that grandmother got her teeth. Putin thought that wiping Ukraine off the map would put the whole world at his feet.
The opposite has happened. Even China has refused to endorse his adventure. At the time of this writing, he is in a lonely-hearts club that includes Ali Khamenei in Tehran, Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk, Burmese jackboots, Sudanese military rulers, and a couple of ageing Latino Marxists. In Western countries his long-time admirers on the right and left are trying to mumble a new narrative to obfuscate their past peccadillo. Even once big politicians like former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and former French Premier Francois Fillon feel uneasy about riding in Putin’s gravy train for oligarchs.
Putin’s new version of the long dead Warsaw Pact has attracted no more than a few fellow autocrats.
The Ukraine adventure was also designed to establish Putin as a successful empire-builder whose personal power ad charisma would forever guarantee the safety of the ill-gained fortunes amassed by a couple of hundred oligarchs. Putin would fight and win while the oligarchs and their trophy wives basked in the sun of the French Riviera or bought football clubs across Europe. That equation, too, has been upset. The Ukraine adventure is now threatening the very system of international corruption that allowed such amazing rag-to-riches stories to shape.
For years, the average Russian has tolerated a good dose of repression from Putin because he seemed to keep the country out of big trouble while the economy improved thanks to energy exports.
The invasion could change all that. Russia is heading for big trouble while the golden goose of energy exports may lay fewer eggs. Worse still, proud Russia may find itself hat in hand in Beijing, offering to mortgage the farm to Chinese overlord Xi Jinping.
Putin has always boasted that he wants to secure a seat at the top table for Russia and revive the global leadership ambitions of the Tsars and their Bolshevik successors. Right now, however, he has lost even the side-chairs that Russia had been granted here and there, becoming an international pariah. Putin may yet crush Ukraine with his far superior fire power. But he would do well to remember Sir Winston Churchill’s note: “There are no certainties in war.”

How and Why Will Putin Seize Ukraine
Camelia Entekhabifard/Alsharq Al Awsat/March, 05/2022
The Russia-Ukraine war has now gone to its second week. As the war is prolonged, many believe that Putin has miscalculated and that Russia’s war machine will now be stopped by the sanctions of the European Union and NATO.
Ranking 22nd out of a list of military capabilities of 140 countries, Ukraine was obviously not an easy force to reckon with. The largest country in Europe (if you don’t count Russia’s European section) with an area of more than 600,000 square kilometers and boasting a population of 43 million people, this isn’t a country that could be occupied and seized overnight.
But Putin knew all of this. He hasn’t invaded Ukraine out of naivety. The US President and NATO countries also know the fact that the war has been prolonged and Kiev hasn’t fallen is not due to Russia’s lack of military capability or miscalculations by Putin.
As usual, what we read in the mainstream media or what the regurgitating pundits claim is far from the real state of things. For a few years now, the political and military balance of power has shifted — as have the policies and strategies of the US, Russia, China and India. Priorities have shifted.
We no longer live in a unipolar world; US’s supremacy is now seriously challenged by Russia and China. What we see today, in the beginning of the second week of Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, was predictable for Putin. He will go all the way to seizure of Ukraine and will bring about changes that are desired by Russia.
Upon gaining independence in 1991, Ukraine inherited a military with 780,000 soldiers and the world’s third biggest nuclear arsenal, boasting 200 nuclear warheads. In May 1992, Kiev signed the Lisbon protocol which obligated it to give up all its nuclear weapons to Russia. It joined the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear country.
Ukraine’s large nuclear sites are an inheritance from the knowledge and investment by Russia in the Soviet period. The country now hosts Europe’s largest nuclear energy centers. As President Zelensky shows an inclination for closer ties to the EU and NATO, and given the possibility of Ukraine building a nuclear bomb, Russia is faced with the possibility of its biggest security crisis following the fall of the USSR.
Yes, Ukraine’s nuclear weapons were given up but the country still has the knowledge and capacity of building them. Putin’s concerns are rooted in national security and challenges he faces vis a vis the West and the United States -- and the question of balance of forces.
Ukraine is considered a gate to Russia. The country is not only a neighbor of Russia and former Soviet Union’s second largest country but its people bear much demographic and linguistic similarity to Russia’s. There are many close ties.
Ukraine’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO, and the possibility of it building a nuclear weapon, are amongst the red lines of Russia. Zelensky’s close ties to the West and his belief in support from the US and NATO, put him on a path with conflict Russia. This is what brought about the current situation. Now, Putin’s military actions have targeted not only Ukraine and Zelensky — but have brought a new challenge to West and the US. Even after the end of the Cold War, Russia has never had ordinary friendly relations with the West and the US. To watch the raising of nuclear weapon bases in Eastern Europe and in former countries of the USSR or the Warsaw Pact — plus the presence of US nuclear submarines near its borders (in Norway) — has meant a lot of worry for Russia. The sanctions will hurt Russia but they’ll have an equally negative effect on the global economy. Russia is a large and strong government with much trade with other countries including the US.
Leaders of NATO countries, including the US, speak of their concerns for Ukraine and its shelterless people. They are also fearful of bloodshed and a total war in the country’s biggest cities. On March 4, they rejected Zelensky’s request for a no-fly zone.
NATO has insisted that it will continue supporting Ukraine but it won’t enter a war with Russia in its defense.
The global price of oil is increasing. EU is worried about cutting of gas and oil imports from Russia. The US itself hasn’t been able to stop buying oil from Russia. Even now, it continues to import Russian oil.
But West’s crippling sanctions are now targeting luxury yachts of Russian billionaires or Russian footballers and athletes who have nothing to do with politics — there was also the earth-shattering banning of Russian carts from a cat beauty pageant!
The ‘isolation’ claimed by West is based on it sanctions policy which is not supported by all the world. China and India didn’t join in. The countries of our region, who have witnessed years of shifting polices and strategies by the US and the West are also adopting a neutral approach. This neutralism is meaningful — for example, they refuse to increase oil production in OPEC to help bring down the vital commodity’s price, despite requests by US and its Western partners.
Putin will indeed seize Ukraine but he won’t stop there. He will make sure that Ukraine’s nuclear sites will never have the capacity for building of nuclear weapons. Most importantly, during the negotiations, he’ll bring about other preconditions and demand for NATO to stop hosting nuclear weapons in Eastern European countries, so close to the borders of Russia. Russia can’t accept the West threatening its borders. Ukraine and Belarus are seen as gates to Russia; so are countries of Central Asia.
This has been Russian policy since Peter the Great. Russians will not accept opposing governments in these countries; they won’t accept any government that’s not close to them.
Now, a few words about the possibility of a nuclear war. In 2018, when Putin was asked about the possibility of a third world war, he gave a strange but meaningful response. Quoting Albert Einstein, the Russian president said: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”
In simpler words, if the world’s powers use nuclear weapons, everything will be destroyed and the next war will be fought in the way of primary humans — those of the pre-historic period.

Biden’s Biggest Nightmare Is One He Didn’t See Coming
Frank Bruni/The New York Times/March, 05/2022
As Joe Biden campaigned for the White House in 2020, he knew that the next president of the United States would govern under circumstances significantly more daunting than those that most faced.
As he took the oath of office in 2021, he could see very clearly — in the tally of Covid-related deaths, in the economic and social devastation of the pandemic, in the country’s vicious partisanship — the immense scope and immeasurable difficulty of the work ahead.
But he surely never expected this. Never expected war in Europe. Never expected a confrontation with Vladimir Putin of such urgency and unpredictable proportions. Never expected that his stack of challenges would grow this much taller, in this particularly terrifying way.
He delivered his first formal State of the Union address on Tuesday night as both a leader and a lesson: Few who have taken a seat at the Resolute Desk end up reading from anything like the script they had first imagined for themselves — or that others had imagined for them. Presidents plan. History laughs. Or weeps or screams — those seem the more appropriate verbs now. Whatever the language, I look at Biden and I not only examine someone in what the journalist John Dickerson, in the title of his 2020 book, calls “The Hardest Job in the World.” I also behold someone in history’s crucible, learning or relearning what every candidate should know and what every voter should factor into his or her calculations, which is how quickly events jag and how suddenly they judder. Biden is in many ways a propitious fit for current events. It’s useful, at this fearful juncture, to have a decidedly even-tempered president with his broad perspective, which has thus far prevented a potentially catastrophic overreaction to Putin’s saber-rattling.
It’s useful to have a president with his regard for institutions and NATO specifically. The Western alliance has been more united than Putin or just about anybody else wagered it would be, and Biden gets some credit for that. As John Avlon, the author of the new book “Lincoln and the Fight for Peace,” told me, “This is reflecting his experience and at least some of his intended strengths.”
But Avlon agreed that Biden belongs to a long line of presidents tugged far off script. Avlon reminded me that President Woodrow Wilson had once famously said, “It would be an irony of fate if my administration had to deal chiefly with foreign affairs.” Well, fate went full-throttle ironic in the form of the First World War. “It’s almost always foreign affairs,” Avlon, a senior political analyst and anchor for CNN, said, “because the process of campaigning is almost always about domestic affairs.”President George W. Bush, in his bid for the White House, questioned “nation building” in foreign lands, sounded somewhat isolationist at times and emphasized aspects of his persona that complemented a relatively prosperous, peaceful chapter of American life. Then came the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 and the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
President Jimmy Carter, whose appeal was largely as an ethical correction after President Richard Nixon, found himself dealing with stagflation at home and the Iranian hostage crisis abroad.
We elect presidents — or should — not just for the moment but for any moment, because the moment changes in the blink of an autocrat’s ego. It did for Biden. “No president had delivered his State of the Union address with such a large-scale and consequential land war underway in Europe since 1945,” Peter Baker wrote in The Times, describing just how unusual Biden’s situation suddenly is.
Also in The Times, David Sanger weighed in: “Eastern Europe was not the battlefield Mr. Biden had in mind when he raised the idea last year that the battle of ‘autocracy versus democracy’ would be the defining foreign policy principle of his administration.” No, the scheming of Donald Trump, not Putin, was undoubtedly front of mind.
Dickerson, the “Hardest Job” author and the chief political analyst for CBS News, told me that when Biden took office, Afghanistan and “trying to orient the West’s focus — his focus — toward China” were top priorities. “Land war in Europe was not on that agenda,” he noted.
“Having said that, all the planning that he’s done in his career, the building of alliances, the team he put together: Implicit in their approach to the world is that the presidency surprises you with things all the time,” he added. “This is a job of surprises.”