English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 10/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Very truly, I tell you, the one who believes in me will also do the works that I do and, in fact, will do greater works than these. I will do whatever you ask in my name, so that the Father may be glorified in the Son
John 14/08-14: "Philip said to him, ‘Lord, show us the Father, and we will be satisfied.’Jesus said to him, ‘Have I been with you all this time, Philip, and you still do not know me? Whoever has seen me has seen the Father. How can you say, "Show us the Father"? Do you not believe that I am in the Father and the Father is in me? The words that I say to you I do not speak on my own; but the Father who dwells in me does his works. Believe me that I am in the Father and the Father is in me; but if you do not, then believe me because of the works themselves. Very truly, I tell you, the one who believes in me will also do the works that I do and, in fact, will do greater works than these, because I am going to the Father. I will do whatever you ask in my name, so that the Father may be glorified in the Son. If in my name you ask me for anything, I will do it."

Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 09-10/2022
Amnesty International: Authorities should lift immunity and allow interrogation of MPs into the Beirut port explosion
Reports: Aoun, Miqati, Berri 'about to' unify position before Hochstein visit
President meets Ambassadors of Nordic countries, says demarcating southern maritime borders one of main constitutional responsibilities
Aoun says to seek 'positive results' in sea border file
Mikati visits Jordanian counterpart in Amman
IMF says expects to revise downward its forecast for global growth
Israel urges Lebanon to speed up talks on maritime border
US ambassador meets with Franjieh in Bnashii
Electricity deal: Will Lebanon see the light?
Lebanese minister blames 'politics' for delay in electricity plan
Bassil urges 'no gas from Karish without gas from Qana' equation
Lebanon marks ISF 161st anniversary
Geagea urges 'sovereign' PM, blames 'change MPs' for parliament losses
Study reveals 'huge scale and impact' of Israeli incursions over Lebanon
Lebanon pins hopes of revival on tourist influx
S. Nasrallah: Hezbollah Committed to Defend Lebanon’s Maritime Wealth, All Options Al-Manar English Website/Marwa Haidar/June 9, 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 09-10/2022
IAEA Board Passes Resolution Chiding Iran on Uranium Trace
Blinken warns Iran’s actions risks deepening nuclear crisis, further isolation
UN Watchdog: Iran Plans to Ramp Up Uranium Enrichment
Iraq Approves $17 Bn to Pay Iran Gas Debt, Buy Grain
Rights Groups Ask British Govt to Stop Deportation of Iranian Dissident To Rwanda
Israeli PM visits UAE, meets President
Israeli PM Bennett in snap UAE visit amid standoff with Iran
Abbas on 1st Appearance Since Death Rumors: Jerusalem is not for Sale
No Way Out as Iraq's Dangerous Post-election Impasse Deepens

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 09-10/2022
Why Biden Needs to Fight, Not Appease, the Enemies of Peace/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/June 09/2022
The Ukraine War Still Holds Surprises. The Biggest May Be for Putin./Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/June 09/2022
Who Will Be the Next President? And How?/Nabil Amr/Asharq Al Awsat/June 09/2022
Turkey barters with US, Russia ahead of Syria incursion/Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/June 09/2022
How US diplomacy can provide a solution in northeast Syria/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 08, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 08-09/2022
Amnesty International: Authorities should lift immunity and allow interrogation of MPs into the Beirut port explosion
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109276/%d9%85%d9%86%d8%b8%d9%85%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%81%d9%88-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a8%d8%ba%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%84%d8%b7%d8%a7%d8%aa/
Responding to the news that two members of parliament, Ghazi Zeaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil, who had both refused to cooperate with the investigation into the Beirut blast, have been elected to the parliamentary committee for administration and justice, Diana Semaan, Amnesty International’s Acting Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa, said: “The current investigative judge is still unable to question or prosecute Ghazi Zeaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil as they both enjoy parliamentary immunity. We reiterate our calls to the Lebanese authorities to immediately lift all immunities granted to officials, regardless of their role or position, in order to comply with its obligation to ensure redress for violations of the right to life.
“Lebanon continues to fail to uphold its human rights obligations in holding perpetrators of the Beirut port blast, which killed more than 200 people, to account. Given the months of stalling, inaction and lack of political will, it remains obvious that an international, independent, and impartial investigative mission, such as a UN fact-finding mission, is essential in upholding justice to families of victims and survivors.”
Lebanon continues to fail to uphold its human rights obligations in holding perpetrators of the Beirut port blast, which killed more than 200 people, to account.
Diana Semaan, Amnesty International
Background
Members of parliament and former ministers Ghazi Zeaiter and Ali Hassan Khalil have continuously blocked and refused to cooperate with the investigation into the case of the 2020 Beirut port explosion. They were charged with criminal “negligence” but decried the decision as unjust and said it defied the Constitution. To this day, and after several complaints that led to the dismissal of former judge Fadi Sawwan and further delays to the work of the current judge Tarek Bitar, neither of them has attended any sessions in the investigation. On 7 June, the two were elected parliamentary committee for administration and justice.
Lebanon is a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, Article 6 of which protects the right to life. The Human Rights Committee, which interprets the ICCPR, has stated: “The duty to protect by law the right to life also requires .. investigating and prosecuting potential cases of unlawful deprivation of life, meting out punishment and providing full reparation.” The investigations into violations of the right to life must be “independent, impartial, prompt, thorough, effective, credible, and transparent,” and they should explore “the legal responsibility of superior officials with regard to violations of the right to life committed by their subordinates.”
Amnesty International and a coalition of more than 50 Lebanese and international organizations wrote to the UN Human Rights Council in June 2021 calling for an international investigation into the Beirut port blast.

Reports: Aoun, Miqati, Berri 'about to' unify position before Hochstein visit
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022  
President Michel Aoun, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati and Speaker Nabib Berri are leaning toward holding a meeting over the maritime border demarcation next week, al-Manar TV reported.The outlet said Thursday it had learned that the meeting might take place at the end of next week to discuss the latest developments regarding the maritime border dispute with Israel, as Israel had moved a gas production vessel into a disputed offshore field, sparking Lebanese condemnation.Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab had said Wednesday that the Lebanese position is "strong and unified." So did al-Akhbar newspaper as it said that Lebanon will not accept U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein's proposal -- which includes Line 23, possible amendments, and a part of Qana field. "Lebanon will give Hochstein a unified answer. It will give its remarks in a clear agreed upon vision," the daily claimed. It added that Lebanon will not amend Decree 6433 to adopt Line 29 "in order to keep the negotiations open," as Hochstein had clearly stated that insisting on Line 29 and amending the Decree will end the negotiations. The LBCI, for its part, had said that the negotiations will be between Line 1 and Line 23, and that Washington is not interested in discussing Line 29. It added that Aoun, Miqati and Berri are close to agreeing on a unified position, which will be negotiating Line 23 without fighting for Line 29. "Lebanon may ask for Line 23 with an additional 80 Kilometers and a part of the Qana field," al-Akhbar sources said.
Hochstein had months ago advised the Lebanese, grappling with an unprecedented financial crisis, to focus on "what you gain" not "what you may lose."While some media considered that the situation does not bode well for Lebanon, other have reported a reassurance message from Israel.
A media report said that U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, had conveyed to a number of officials and politicians, that Israel had no intention to escalate the dispute by moving the vessel into the disputed field. Israel on Wednesday had urged Lebanon to speed up negotiations on its disputed maritime border ahead of an expected visit to Beirut by Hochstein.

President meets Ambassadors of Nordic countries, says demarcating southern maritime borders one of main constitutional responsibilities
NNA/Thursday, 9 June, 2022 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, affirmed that dealing with demarcation of the southern maritime borders stems from preserving Lebanon’s interest and its rights in its waters and land.
The President asserted that this issue, which falls within the framework of international negotiations, is among the main responsibilities of the President of the Republic based on Article 52 of the Constitution. The President’s positions came while meeting a delegation of ambassadors from the North, including Denmark’s Ambassador to Lebanon, Merete Juhl, Norwegian Ambassador, Martin Yttervik, Finnish Ambassador, Tarja Fernandez, and Swedish Ambassador, Ann Dismorr.
President Aoun emphasized that he will continue his efforts to reach positive results in demarcating the southern land borders, especially with the arrival of the American mediator in the indirect negotiations with Israel, Ambassador Amos Hochstein to Beirut at the beginning of next week. “We will ask Hochstein to resume his efforts to restart indirect negotiations, especially since Lebanon wants, through these negotiations, to be able to invest its oil and gas wealth in Lebanese waters, and to maintain stability and security in the border region” the President said. In response to the Ambassadors’ questions, President Aoun clarified that the democratic process will continue in the coming days through parliamentary consultations to assign a personality to form the new government, which is supposed to gain the confidence of Parliament and begin work on addressing urgent issues, especially the economic situation, the recovery plan, and negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which is supposed to provide Lebanon with loans to help it overcome the difficult circumstances it is going through. In response to another question, President Aoun pointed out that the money factor played a role in the course of the recent parliamentary elections, and if appeals are received, the Constitutional Council decides on them according to the approved constitutional rules. President Aoun also stressed the importance of the relations linking Lebanon with the northern countries, expressing Lebanon’s position on the Russian-Ukrainian war and its impact on the world’s economies.
For their part, the ambassadors of the four countries affirmed their support for Lebanon in various fields and the continuation of providing aid in the areas it needs, looking forward to strengthening relations between their countries and Lebanon.
MP Pakradounian:
The President met Tashnaq Party Secretary-General, MP Hagop Pakradounian, and discussed with him general affairs and constitutional entitlements after the end of the parliamentary elections. The formation of a new government after the parliamentary consultations and indirect negotiations to demarcate the southern maritime borders, were deliberated in addition to and the mission of Ambassador Amos Hochstein.
Congratulations to the ISF:
President Aoun, congratulated the Internal Security Forces, leadership, officers and individuals, on the passing of 161 years since its founding, praising all the efforts and sacrifices they are making in order to maintain security and stability in Lebanon, and to implement laws that protect all aspects of life and society. The President addressed ISF members, expressing his appreciation for their commitment to their mission and dedication to their work despite the harsh conditions they are experiencing as a result of the economic crisis afflicting their homeland. President Aoun also stressed that he spares no effort to improve their situation, and that of their comrades in the rest of the security and military institutions. In addition, the President stressed the extent of the responsibility placed on the shoulders of the Internal Security Forces, and the role they play towards the Lebanese without discrimination or prejudice, calling on its members to remain a role model in discipline, impartiality, and national giving.—Presidency Press Office

Aoun says to seek 'positive results' in sea border file
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
President Michel Aoun on Thursday stressed that he will seek “positive results” in the file of demarcating the maritime border with Israel, amid tensions sparked by the arrival of a gas production vessel in the Karish offshore field. “The approach towards the file of the demarcation of the southern maritime border is based on preserving Lebanon’s interest as well as its rights to its water and land,” Aoun said in a Baabda meeting with the ambassadors of Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden. “This file, which is part of international negotiations, is at the heart of the responsibilities of the president of the republic, according to Article 52 of the constitution,” Aoun added. Stressing that he will seek “positive results” in the file, the President told the ambassadors that Lebanon will ask U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein to “resume his efforts to reactivate the indirect negotiations” between Lebanon and Israel. “Lebanon wants through these negotiations to be able to utilize its oil and gas resources in the Lebanese waters and to preserve stability and security in the border area,” Aoun went on to say. Responding to questions from the ambassadors, the President said “the democratic course will be continued in the coming days through parliamentary consultations to name a figure to form the new government.”He added that the new government should “address the pressing issues, especially the economic situation, the recovery plan and the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which are expected to provide loans for Lebanon to help it overcome the difficult circumstances that it is going through.”

Mikati visits Jordanian counterpart in Amman
NNA/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Thursday visited his Jordanian counterpart, Bisher Khasawneh, at the premiership headquarters in Amman. The two premiers stressed the distinguished Jordanian-Lebanese relations and commitment to bolstering cooperation in various fields to benefit both countries.
Khasawneh reaffirmed Jordan's support, led by His Majesty King Abdullah II, to address current challenges and boost Lebanon’s stability. Mikati expressed pride and gratitude for His Majesty's supportive stances on several occasions, underscoring his commitment to enhancing bilateral ties in various fields.

IMF says expects to revise downward its forecast for global growth
Reuters/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
The International Monetary Fund expects to further cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 next month, IMF spokesperson Gerry Rice said on Thursday, following moves by the World Bank and OECD to cut their own forecasts.
That would be its third downgrade this year. In April, the IMF had already slashed its forecast for global economic growth by nearly a full percentage point to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023.Rice told a regular IMF briefing that the overall outlook still called for growth across the globe, albeit at a slower level, but a number of countries may be facing a recession. -- Reuters

Israel urges Lebanon to speed up talks on maritime border
Agence France Presse/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Israel on Wednesday urged Lebanon to speed up negotiations on its disputed maritime border ahead of an expected visit to Beirut by the U.S. mediator in the contentious talks. The call came days after Israel moved a gas production vessel into an offshore field, a part of which is claimed by Lebanon. Lebanon cried foul after the ship operated by London-listed Energean Plc arrived in the Karish gas field on Sunday, urging U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein to visit Beirut to mediate. In a joint statement Wednesday, the Israeli ministers for defense, energy and foreign affairs restated Israel's view that Karish "is a strategic asset of the State of Israel.""The rig is located in Israeli territory, several kilometers south of the area over which negotiations are being conducted between the State of Israel and the state of Lebanon," the statement said. "The rig will not pump gas from the disputed territory," it added, stressing that Israel is "prepared to defend" the site."We call on the state of Lebanon to accelerate negotiations on the maritime border," the statement said, adding that "locating gas-based energy sources" would help both Lebanon and Israel. The speaker of Lebanon's parliament, Nabih Berri, has said thay Hochstein is expected in Beirut on "Sunday or Monday."Lebanon and Israel last fought a war in 2006, have no diplomatic relations and are separated by a U.N.-patrolled border.They had resumed negotiations over their maritime border in 2020 but the process was stalled after Lebanese officials said that the map used by the United Nations in the talks needed modifying. Lebanon initially demanded 860 square kilometers of territory in the disputed maritime area but then asked for an additional 1,430 square kilometers, including part of Karish.

US ambassador meets with Franjieh in Bnashii
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea held talks Thursday in the northern town of Bnashii with Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh. According to Franjieh’s press office, the talks tackled “the upcoming constitutional junctures and a number of important issues at the political, economic, financial and social levels.”According to media reports, Shea had on Wednesday relayed Israeli reassurance messages to Lebanese officials regarding the arrival of a gas production rig in the Karish offshore field.

Electricity deal: Will Lebanon see the light?
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022  
Caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad has stressed on the sidelines of an energy conference in Jordan that Lebanon needs "before Summer" the approval on a deal that will supply Lebanon with electricity from Jordan through Syria. "We need to get the approval before Summer," Fayyad said, as he asked Arab and foreign countries for help in gas and fuel supplies. Lebanon prepares to receive, in the coming months, between 10,000 and 12,000 passengers a day, or about 1 million passengers over the next three months, according to caretaker Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar. Prime Minister Najib Miqati had blamed Fayyad during a visit to the airport on Wednesday when a reporter asked him about the power crisis that might persist through the hot tourist season. Fayyad for his part said that the electricity deal hasn't been approved by the U.S. yet and that the World Bank, which will fund the project, was "adding more conditions". He added that the U.S. had demanded reassurances from the World Bank that the deal will not violate U.S. sanctions that forbid financial dealings with the government in Damascus. If approved, the deal will provide Lebanon with up to 250 megawatts of electricity during the day and 150 megawatts at night, equivalent to a total of two additional hours of power, according to Fayyad.

Lebanese minister blames 'politics' for delay in electricity plan
Reuters/Thursday, 9 June, 2022  
Lebanon's caretaker energy minister said on Wednesday that "politics" was behind the delay in a US-backed deal to supply his country with electricity from Jordan via Syrian territory to ease crippling power shortages. Walid Fayad said that the World Bank, which had pledged to finance the project, was "tying it to some kind of political diligence," alluding to external considerations without getting into specifics. Speaking on the sidelines of an energy conference in the Jordanian capital, Fayad said the World Bank was also "adding more conditions although they were clear at the start".
Fayad said the United States had demanded to "see the financing terms from the World Bank" to ensure that the electricity deal "is not sanctionable," even though Washington had told Beirut in January not to fear sanctions over its regional energy supply plans.
A US State Department source said that the US was requesting details of transactions, including final financing as contracts, to review for sanctions compliance as part of Washington's OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) process, which administers a number of different sanctions programmes. The source said this was part of standard government procedures. The United States passed the Caesar Act in 2019 allowing it to freeze assets of anyone dealing with Syria, with the aim of forcing President Bashar al-Assad to stop his war with opposition forces and agree a political solution.
A senior Western diplomatic source said Washington had since the Russian invasion of Ukraine toughened its stance against any attempt by regional countries to normalise ties with Damascus, a strong ally of Moscow. Syria earlier said Washington's readiness to allow energy supplies across Syria showed that tough sanctions the regime imposed on it was beginning to show cracks. Lebanon and Jordan signed a deal in Beirut last January to ease chronic Lebanese power outages by transmitting about 400 megawatts of electricity across Syrian territory. Fayad said the delay would worsen shortages as Lebanon enters its summer season, with higher energy demand and an influx of tourists. The Lebanese-Jordanian agreement is part of a wider plan that also aims to pump Egyptian gas to a power station in northern Lebanon via a pipeline that runs through Jordan and Syria. The agreement with Egypt has yet to be signed.
"There is no delay but an important milestone that we need to get through is the American approval plus the financing from the World Bank," Egyptian Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla said at the conference. Lebanon has suffered power outages dating from its 1975-90 civil war, which ravaged the electricity infrastructure and left many families relying on private generators. A World Bank spokesperson was not immediately available for comment.

Bassil urges 'no gas from Karish without gas from Qana' equation
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Thursday reiterated his call for imposing the equation “no gas from Karish without gas from Qana,” amid controversy over Israel’s positioning of a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel in the Karish offshore field. “It is not enough that the ship is positioned south of Line 29 as long as it is above Karish. And it is not enough for Israel to say that it will extract gas from the undisputed side as long as it will be from the same field,” Bassil tweeted. “There is a solution chance now, before Lebanon officially lodges Line 29 (with the U.N.), turning it from a negotiations line into a legal line,” Bassil added.“Now is the time to impose the equation ‘no gas from Karish without gas from Qana,’” the FPM chief urged.

Lebanon marks ISF 161st anniversary
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022  
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi and ISF chief Maj. Gen. Imad Othman laid Thursday floral wreaths on the Internal Security Forces Martyrs' monument on the occasion of the 161st anniversary of the ISF. Mawlawi had asked the ISF members earlier on Wednesday in a social media statement to hold on to their institution and homeland "in order to build together a more safe and secure country.""Our security is in your hands," Mawlawi said. "We will never leave your side," he added.

Geagea urges 'sovereign' PM, blames 'change MPs' for parliament losses
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has called for naming a new premier who is “non-corrupt” and who has a “sovereign identity.”In an interview with the privately-owned al-Markazia news agency, Geagea also said that the new premier “should pledge not to reserve any portfolio for any party or sect, most importantly the energy portfolio.”Asked about the latest two parliamentary sessions and “the reasons why Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement won the speaker and deputy speaker posts,” Geagea blamed “some of the independent and pro-change MPs who are rejecting coordination with any party based on the ‘all of them means all of them’ rule.”As for the maritime border demarcation, Geagea considered what is happening as "chaotic," since Lebanon had previously sent an official document in which Lebanon's maritime border ended at Line 23. "All Lebanese have turned into experts in geography and cartography," Geagea said sarcastically.He added that the file must be addressed through official channels. "The state will accordingly take a position that preserves Lebanon’s rights, based on in-depth studies and documents to be lodged with the United Nations," Geagea concluded.

Study reveals 'huge scale and impact' of Israeli incursions over Lebanon
Naharnet/Thursday, 9 June, 2022 
A study documenting at least 22,000 Israeli overflights in Lebanon’s skies over the past 15 years has revealed the “huge scale and impact of Israeli incursions over Lebanon” as well as the “psychological effect on the country,” British newspaper The Guardian reported on Thursday. “For decades, the roar of Israeli jets, and the hum of surveillance drones have been regular features in the skies above Lebanon, buzzing towns and cities at will – and acting as constant reminders that war is never far away,” The Guardian said. The study, which was published on Thursday by a new organization, AirPressure.info, demonstrates “just how pervasive that presence has been, with at least 22,000 overflights being documented in the past 15 years alone,” the newspaper added. “Those numbers have made warplanes an abiding soundtrack to Lebanese life and the ever present threat of violence a part of the country’s collective psychology,” it said.The research shows Israeli planes have occupied the skies of Lebanon for a total of eight and a half of the past 15 years. “Few of the incursions are brief, with many lasting an average of four hours and 35 minutes. And most involve the most technically advanced fighter planes or surveillance aircraft in the world that basic Lebanese ground defenses offer no match for,” The Guardian added, citing the study. “Maps of the flight routes taken by the jets and drones reveal a spaghetti bowl of loops over most areas of Lebanon. The flights are concentrated in the south, where they appear to follow set routes. But Beirut is also a frequent destination, as are areas north of the capital and closer to the Syrian border,” the newspaper said. Lawrence Abu Hamdan, who assembled the research, which is the most comprehensive of its kind, said studies had shown regular exposure to overflights by warplanes had taken a toll on those living below. AirPressure.info has compiled 11 peer-reviewed papers from scientific journals that detail the acute physiological effects of aircraft noise, with symptoms ranging from hypertension to diminished blood circulation and psychosomatic pains. Perhaps less understood is the psychological effect of foreign warplanes dominating the skies above a civilian population. They often fly at low altitudes that cause alarm and panic.“While in Lebanon, each one of these acts is felt as a briefly passing moment and no two residents may hear jets in the same way or at the same time,” said Abu Hamdan. “What I aim to present is an accumulated event, one extended crime that has taken place over the past 15 years. “But really this should be seen as an atmosphere of violence. It takes its toll over time, and that’s why it has the potential to be ignored, but it shouldn’t be ignored any longer. Why should a population live under mass indiscriminate surveillance and live under a hostile sky … to the extent that it’s embodied into everyday life,” Abu Hamdan added. The numbers have been compiled from 243 letters addressed by Lebanon to the U.N. Security Council, which were often informed by data supplied by the U.N. interim force in Lebanon, a peacekeeping mission, and by the Lebanese Army. Israel has long maintained that its intrusions over Lebanon are necessary to gain intelligence of Hizbullah and its weapons. It has also used Lebanese skies to bomb targets in Syria linked to Iran and Hizbullah.

Lebanon pins hopes of revival on tourist influx
Najia Houssari/Arab News/June 09, 2022
Baalbeck festival ‘comeback’ leads the way as 1m arrivals tipped
BEIRUT: Lebanon is hoping a summer influx of tourists and visitors will help revive its flagging economy, with the return of live performances at the Baalbeck International Festival expected to be a major drawcard. The festival, a global cultural highlight for more than six decades, was held virtually in 2020 and 2021 because of pandemic restrictions, but previews of its Baalbeck Castle line-up between July 8-17 have attracted more than 17 million views on social media. Minister of Tourism Walid Nassar said that up to 12,000 people are expected to arrive in Beirut each day during the next three months, with over 1 million arrivals over the summer. “Given its location and all its tourism components, Lebanon does not need marketing,” he said. Speaking during an inspection tour of Rafic Hariri International Airport in Beirut, Nassar said that flights, hotels and even guest houses were fully booked for the summer.
Travel agencies and airlines say that many Lebanese expatriates planning to spend their summer vacation in Lebanon with their families have booked tickets. “We have a 100 percent reservation rate between July 1 and mid-September,” Jean Abboud, head of the Syndicate of Tourism and Travel Agencies, told Arab News.“A total of 110 planes will be landing in Beirut during this period, carrying 15,000 passengers, the vast majority of whom are Lebanese, in addition to Jordanians, Iraqis and Egyptians.”He said that the number of flights to and from Lebanon may have to be increased to cope with the rising demand. According to Abboud, holidaying expats will help revive Lebanon’s economy by pumping US dollars into the economy.
However, the surge in tourist numbers is putting pressure on the capital’s accommodation, with some five-star hotels on the Beirut waterfront destroyed in the 2020 Beirut port explosion yet to be rebuilt. “The remaining options are four-star hotels in the capital, and there are a few five-star hotels outside the capital, in addition to the guest houses that have recently proliferated in various regions. A total of 17,000 hotel rooms have been set to receive the Lebanese in their homeland,” Abboud said. He pointed to a decline in Gulf tourism to Lebanon, saying: “For decades, Gulf tourists used to spend long weeks in Lebanon. In 2011, their contribution to our economy amounted to $11 billion, while now it barely exceeds $4 billion.”In Baalbeck, the city’s major festivals are regaining their appeal after organizers were unable to attract foreign performers in recent years amid the economic collapse and the local currency’s depreciation.
Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi said that “the security situation in Lebanon is stable and under control.”Four concerts are scheduled to be held at Baalbek Castle between July 8-17, featuring Lebanese, Spanish and French artists. The festival opens with a performance of traditional songs by Somaya Baalbaki, who will be backed by an orchestra of more than 35 musicians led by Lebnan Baalbaki. Nayla de Freij, head of the Baalbeck festival committee, told Arab News that Lebanon’s festivals are struggling in the face of difficult economic conditions, but were determined to “emphasize cultural exchange between East and West.”Without state funding for the Baalbeck festival this year, organizers were relying on contributions from a limited number of sponsors, she said. However, de Freij said that “austerity measures and the limited budget do not mean we will be cutting corners when it comes to the technical level that we want to maintain in the Baalbeck festivals. This is why we will only be holding four concerts this year, and we will not build the huge amphitheater.”Performers at the festival “have accepted relatively small payments because they want to help Lebanon as well,” she added.
“Our role in these circumstances is to encourage the dying Lebanese art. There are creative artists who must continue their artistic careers. And we wanted to present art that resembles people and preserves their heritage.”Both Abboud and de Freij said that security is the key to reviving summer activities in Lebanon.“The committee contacted army and security services officials, and they confirmed that security will be under control to and from Baalbeck,” de Freij said.

S. Nasrallah: Hezbollah Committed to Defend Lebanon’s Maritime Wealth, All Options Al-Manar English Website/Marwa Haidar/June 9, 2022
Sayyed NasrallahHezbollah S.G. Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah in a televised speech via Al-Manar (Thursday, June 9 2022).
Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasallah on Thursday stressed that the Lebanese Resistance party is committed to defend the country’s maritime wealth, warning that Israeli enemy that “all options are on table” in this regard.
In a televised speech via Al-Manar, Sayyed Nasrallah said that the Resistance is capable on several levels (militarily, logistically, security and individually) to prevent the Israeli enemy to extract gas and oil from the disputed zone. His eminence said that the Greek firm operating the vessel which reached the disputed area in Karish is partner in the Israeli aggression on Lebanon’s maritime wealth, warning this firm that it is “fully responsible” for the fate of the vessel. Sayyed Nasrallah called for a united Lebanese stance regarding dealing with the issue of maritime wealth, stressing that investing in this wealth is the “only remaining hope” to cope with the economic collapse endangering Lebanon’s social security. The Resistance leader, meanwhile, reiterated a previous stance that Hezbollah is not party to the US-brokered indirect maritime border talks between Lebanon and the Zionist entity, assuring that the only responsible Lebanese side is the Lebanese State. Sayyed Nasrallah also hit back at Israeli threats, saying that the losses inflicted upon Lebanon in case of any future confrontation are nothing compared to losses inflicted on the Zionist entity.
“Aggressive, Provocative Act”
Starting his speech, Sayyed Nasrallah said the Energean Power FPSO (Floating Production Storage Offloading) operated by the Greek firm- which had reached the disputed maritime zone- was not in the stage of drilling for gas and oil, noting that the activity now is the extraction of gas and oil. “The vessel arrived in the disputed maritime zone to extract gas and not to drill for gas as reported by some media outlets,” Sayyed Nasrallah said. His eminence described the Israeli move, represented by the ship activity in the disputed zone, is considered as an “aggressive and provocative act”.
Sayyed Nasrallah repeatedly said during his speech that Hezbollah is not a party to the indirect talks on maritime borders between Lebanon and the Zionist entity, stressing that the Lebanese State is the only side responsible for the US-brokered negotiations.
“Today we are before a very important and national issue which is how to react to this Israeli aggression,” the Resistance leader said. “Maritime Wealth Lebanon’s Only Remaining Hope” Sayyed Nasrallah noted that the Lebanese maritime wealth is the “only remaining hope to cope with the economic collapse which has been endangering the country’s social security.” His eminence then talked about threats that could prevent Lebanon to invest in its maritime wealth. “The first threat endangering this wealth is the potential seizure by the Zionist entity to a great area of our maritime border.”
“The second threat is preventing Lebanon from extracting gas and oil in its maritime border, while the third one is emptying the field from gas and oil by the enemy and other states in the region.” Sayyed Nasrallah then assured that Lebanon’s maritime wealth “is no less important than liberating the country’s occupied south in 2000,” noting that all powers in Lebanon “have to act with high responsibility in order to defend this wealth.”
In this context he warned against more delay in this issue, stating: “We don’t have much time. The more days we are late the much wealth we are losing.”“Hezbollah has been since 2000 laying responsibility of maritime border demarcation on the Lebanese State.”
“The Powerful Resistance”
Sayyed Nasrallah then hit back at Israeli threats and provocations, affirming that Lebanon “has the ultimate right to invest in its maritime wealth.”“The Resistance is capable on all levels- militarily, logistically, security and individually- to prevent the Israeli enemy from extracting gas and oil in Karish field. The Resistance is committed to defend Lebanon’s maritime wealth.” “All enemy’s measures can’t defend the vessel planning to extract oil and gas in disputed zone,” his eminence added. “Lebanon’s losses in case of any war with ‘Israel’ are nothing compared to the Zionist entity’s losses,”, adding:
“The enemy’s decision to go for war has existential repercussions on the Zionist entity rather than strategic ones,” Sayyed Nasrallah said, warning the Israeli regime that “Lebanon’s losses in case of any war with ‘Israel’ are nothing compared to the Zionist entity’s losses.”Addressing both political powers and people in Lebanon, Sayyed Nasrallah called for a united stance regarding the issue of maritime wealth, reminding some parties that “the Israeli enemy acts arrogantly and neither recognizes nor respects international laws.” “The powerful Resistance can’t and won’t keep mum regarding Israeli aggression on Lebanon’s maritime wealth,” Sayyed Nasrallah warned as he delivered a clear message to the Zionist entity which says: “All options are on the table.”
“Greece Fully Responsible for Vessel”
Sayyed Nasralah then called on the Greek firm to withdraw the vessel from the disputed maritime zone, warning that company that it is “fully responsible” for any material or human losses that could be inflicted upon the ship. “The Greek firm operating the vessel near Karish has to know that it’s a partner in the Israeli aggression on Lebanon and must withdraw the ship from the disputed zone immediately.”Sayyed Nasrallah then assured that Hezbollah “is loosely monitoring the issue of maritime wealth,” revealing that the Resistance party has tasked former MP Nawwaf Al-Mousawi to follow up the issue. “With regard to balance of power Lebanon today is stronger than ever,” the Lebanese Resistance leader concluded.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 09-10/2022
IAEA Board Passes Resolution Chiding Iran on Uranium Trace
Vienna - London - Tehran - Raghida Bahnam and Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
The Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency that includes 35 members has made an overwhelming majority vote to criticize Iran for a lack of cooperation with the UN nuclear inspectorate. The resolution on Wednesday criticized Iran for failing to explain uranium traces found at three undeclared sites. Only two countries, Russia and China, opposed the text while 30 voted in favor and three – Libya, Pakistan and India - abstained. The text says the board "expresses profound concern" the traces remain unexplained due to insufficient cooperation by Iran and calls on Iran to engage with the watchdog "without delay". “We are not taking this action to escalate a confrontation for political purposes. We seek no such escalation,” said US Ambassador Laura S.H. Holgate in a statement delivered at the board meeting in Vienna. “The Board of Governors has a responsibility to take appropriate action in support of the Director General, the Secretariat, and the international safeguards regime to hold Iran accountable to its safeguards obligations. Iran must cooperate with the IAEA to allow it to fulfill its verification and monitoring mandate without further delay.”Asked whether the IAEA decision would affect the talks held in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, a Western diplomat told Asharq Al-Awsat that the negotiations have been deadlocked since March despite the efforts exerted by the European Union, which is acting as a mediator between Tehran and the US. Iran turned off two surveillance devices Wednesday used by UN inspectors to monitor its uranium enrichment. The move appeared to be a new pressure technique just before the IAEA’s Board of Governors meeting. After the vote, a joint statement from France, Germany, and the UK and the US said the censure “sends an unambiguous message to Iran that it must meet its safeguards obligations and provide technically credible clarifications on outstanding safeguards issues.”Iran's Foreign Ministry criticized the censure as a “political, incorrect and unconstructive action.”An Iranian official earlier warned IAEA officials that Tehran was now considering taking “other measures” as well. “We hope that they come to their senses and respond to Iran’s cooperation with cooperation,” said Behrouz Kamalvandi, a spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. “It is not acceptable that they show inappropriate behavior while Iran continues to cooperate.” Meanwhile, Iran's state TV reported on Wednesday that Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that Tehran has presented a new proposal to Washington to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.

Blinken warns Iran’s actions risks deepening nuclear crisis, further isolation
Arab News/June 09/2022
LONDON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that Iran is risking greater isolation and heightened tensions after the country removed cameras meant to monitor its nuclear program. Iran’s actions threatened the possible restoration of the 2015 six-party nuclear deal, Blinken said in a statement.
“The only outcome of such a path will be a deepening nuclear crisis and further economic and political isolation for Iran,” he said. Earlier Thursday the International Atomic Energy Agency said the removal of 27 surveillance cameras used by the UN nuclear watchdog to monitor Tehran’s activities could deal a “fatal blow” to negotiations to revive a landmark deal. The statement comes a day after the IAEA’s board of governors overwhelming expressed support for an essential mission of safeguarding nuclear material to prevent nuclear proliferation, and censured Tehran over its lack of cooperation with the watchdog.
Blinken said Iran’s initial response was to threaten further nuclear provocations and reductions of transparency, insteading of addressing these issues. “Iran must cooperate with the IAEA and provide technically credible information in response to the IAEA’s questions, which is the only way to remove these safeguards issues from the board’s agenda,” Blinken said. He added that the US remains committed to a mutual return to full implementation of the nuclear deal and are “prepared to conclude a deal on the basis of the understandings we negotiated with our European Allies in Vienna over many months.”
Meanwhile, US envoy to Iran Rob Malley said the board’s message to Iran was clear regarding the need meet its safeguards obligations, which are separate to the nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “This is not political; as soon as the IAEA has the technically credible information it needs, the board would see no need for further action on these issues,” Malley said. He also reiterated that they are ready for a mutual return to full compliance immediately, but Iran “needs to decide to drop its extraneous demands” and agree to the Vienna deal that has been available since March.
“Iran has a way out of the nuclear crisis it has created; cooperate with the IAEA to resolve outstanding safeguards issues and agree to return to the JCPOA, thereby addressing urgent international non-proliferation concerns and achieving US sanctions lifting. The choice is theirs,” he added.(With AFP)

UN Watchdog: Iran Plans to Ramp Up Uranium Enrichment
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Iran plans to install two new cascades of advanced centrifuges that will allow Tehran to rapidly enrich more uranium, the UN's nuclear watchdog said Thursday. The decision to add the two IR-6 centrifuges cascades at its underground Natanz nuclear facility comes as countries at an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna voted Wednesday night to censure Iran. The rebuke deals with what the watchdog refers to as Iran’s failure to provide “credible information” over man-made nuclear material found at three undeclared sites in the country. But even before the vote, Iran shut off two devices the IAEA uses to monitor enrichment at Natanz. Iranian officials also threatened to take more steps amid a yearslong crisis that threatens to widen into further attacks. The IAEA said Thursday that its Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi told members that Iran informed the agency that it planned to install two new cascades of the IR-6 at Natanz. A cascade is a series of centrifuges hooked together to rapidly spin uranium gas to enrich it. An IR-6 centrifuge spins uranium 10 times as fast as the first-generation centrifuges that Iran was once limited to under its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. As of February, Iran already had been spinning a cascade of IR-6s at its underground facility at Fordo, according to the IAEA. At Natanz, located some 200 kilometers south of the capital, Tehran, Iran earlier said it planned to install one cascade of IR-6s. The IAEA said it “verified” the ongoing installation of that cascade Monday, while the newly promised two new cascades had yet to begin. Grossi also told the IAEA board on Thursday that Iran has informed the agency by letter that it plans to disconnect 20 IAEA surveillance cameras and other monitoring equipment. Iran's move is apparent further retaliation for the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors' resolution criticizing Iran for failing to explain uranium particles at undeclared sites.

Iraq Approves $17 Bn to Pay Iran Gas Debt, Buy Grain
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Iraq passed Wednesday an emergency finance bill to pay debts to Iran to ensure gas supplies and forestall worsening power cuts, as well as to buy grain for "food security,” AFP reported. Parliament, which has still not adopted its budget for 2022, approved the law relating to "food security and development" totaling 25 trillion Iraqi dinars, or just over $17 billion. Of that, $2.6 billion will be allocated to settling Iraq's gas and electricity debts, as well as for buying further energy supplies from abroad. About $3.4 billion will be used to buy cereals, including large volumes of wheat supplies from both the domestic market and abroad. Iraq's agricultural sector contracted by 17.5 percent last year "following severe droughts, energy outages, and the rising global price of inputs", according to the World Bank. Despite its immense oil and gas reserves, Iraq remains dependent on imports to meet energy needs. Iran currently provides a third of Iraq's gas and electricity needs, but supplies are regularly cut or reduced, aggravating shortages caused by daily load shedding. Iran had demanded Iraq pay $1.6 billion it owes for gas imports by the start of June to guarantee further supplies. Payment of the debt is a key requirement to ensure energy supplies for power plants as Iraq enters the intense heat of the summer, when temperatures soar to over 50 degrees Celsius, AFP reported. Electricity demand surges as people seek to keep cool. But in recent days, Iran has sharply reduced its gas exports. The debt dates back to 2020, but payment was stalled amid sanctions against Iran by the United States, which mean that Baghdad cannot pay directly for energy imports in cash. Iran has "promised to restore the needed supply of gas in the coming days", Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi said on Tuesday. Iraq's parliament has been in deadlock since elections in October.

Rights Groups Ask British Govt to Stop Deportation of Iranian Dissident To Rwanda
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Human rights activists called Wednesday on the British Home Secretary to halt next week’s planned deportation to Rwanda of an Iranian former police commander, saying they fear for his life following his testimony to the International People’s Tribunal on Iran’s atrocities during the November 2019 protests.
Justice for Iran, an NGO tracking human rights violations, campaigned for signing a petition calling on British authorities to halt the deportation of the former police commander to Rwanda next June 14. The petition warned that the witness could be kidnapped by Iranian authorities after arriving in the African country. “This is an unfair and dangerous decision that must be reversed immediately,” it said. The former Iranian police commander, also known as “Witness 195” or Bahram, had testified against Iranian authorities to the Aban Tribunal that kicked off in mid-November. Bahram arrived in Britain in May 2021.
He said he formerly led a 60-strong police unit during nationwide anti-government protests in November 2019. Speaking to the Tribunal via videolink, the witness said he had refused to allow those under his command to shoot at peaceful demonstrators in Iran. He told the panel about his subsequent arrest and 5-year prison sentence for cooperating and sympathizing with the protestors. When the Iranian Supreme Court upheld the prison sentence on appeal, the witness said he escaped to Turkey leaving behind his family. He then left Turkey in spring 2021 and made the dangerous crossing to the UK from France in mid-May in a small boat across the English Channel. During his arrest, Witness 195 said he was subjected to severe psychological torture at a detention center. He currently suffers from heart problems. The former police commander also said that the orders to suppress the protests came from the National Security Council, including Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Late last year, Amnesty International said 324 men, women and children were killed by Iran’s security forces during their crackdown on mass protests that erupted across Iran between 15 and 19 November 2019. On Dec. 23, 2019, Reuters quoted three sources close to the supreme leader’s inner circle and a fourth official as saying that Khamenei gathered his top security and government officials together and issued an order to crackdown on protesters. It said what began as scattered protests over a surprise increase in gasoline prices quickly spread into one of the biggest challenges to Iran’s clerical rulers since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Last April, the UK and Rwanda governments announced an agreement to send asylum seekers to Rwanda on the grounds of their irregular entry to the UK through the English Channel.

Israeli PM visits UAE, meets President
Arab News/June 09, 2022
ABU DHABI: Israel’s Prime Minister met with the UAE’s President during an official visit to Abu Dhabi on Thursday, UAE’s state news agency WAM reported. Naftali Bennett and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed explored ways to boost cooperation between both countries in economic, developmental, investment, health and food security sectors to serve the aspirations of both peoples. Bennett offered his condolences to the UAE over the death of the former President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who died on May 13, commending his role in cementing cooperation and peace with the rest of the world. He also congratulated Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed on his presidency and reaffirmed that Israel looked forward to expanding cooperation with the UAE over the coming phase “for the benefit and prosperity of both peoples”, according to WAM. Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed expressed his appreciation over the prime minister’s wishes of prosperity and development for the UAE. The UAE and Israel signed a normalization agreement in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords. Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco also normalized ties with Israel in the framework of the accords.Bennett's Abu Dhabi visit, his third in recent months, had not previously been announced.

Israeli PM Bennett in snap UAE visit amid standoff with Iran
Associated Press/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett made a surprise visit to the United Arab Emirates on Thursday, with the snap trip coming as efforts to salvage a deal over Iran's nuclear program are stalled in a deepening standoff with Tehran. The visit was Bennett's second public trip to Abu Dhabi since Israel and the UAE agreed to normalize ties in 2020 after years of quiet cooperation, mainly over their shared concerns over Iran's nuclear capabilities.Bennett's office said the Israeli leader will meet the UAE's president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and that the two will discuss "various regional issues." Iran is likely to top the agenda. In a video statement before departing, Bennett commended countries at an International Atomic Energy Agency meeting in Vienna on Wednesday that voted to censure Iran over its lack of transparency about nuclear activities at three undeclared sites in the country. "We see here a firm stance by the countries of the world regarding the distinction between good and evil, as they clearly state that Iran is concealing things. We will not let up on this issue," he said. The IAEA said Thursday Iran plans to ramp up its uranium enrichment, with the installation of advanced centrifuges. Advanced uranium enrichment is a key component in the manufacture of a nuclear bomb. Israel considers Iran to be its greatest enemy and it strongly opposed the 2015 deal between Iran and world powers, which eased economic sanctions in exchange for curbs on Iran's nuclear activities. Israel says it wants an improved deal that places tighter restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and addresses Iran's long-range missile program and its support for hostile proxies along Israel's borders. Israel also says the negotiations must be accompanied by a "credible" military threat to ensure that Iran does not delay indefinitely.
In 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord, raising tensions across the wider Middle East and sparking a series of attacks and incidents. The withdrawal caused the deal to quickly unravel. Talks in Vienna over Iran's tattered nuclear deal have been stalled since April. Since the deal's collapse, Iran has been running advanced centrifuges, and has a rapidly growing stockpile of enriched uranium. Israeli leaders have claimed Iran is just weeks away from accumulating enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon, though other components of a bomb are believed to be months or years away. Iran insists its program is for peaceful purposes, though U.N. experts and Western intelligence agencies say Iran had an organized military nuclear program through 2003. Israel and the UAE agreed to thaw ties under the U.S. brokered agreements known as the "Abraham Accords," which saw similar deals struck with Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. Since then, Israel and the UAE have deepened ties in tourism and trade, to the dismay of the Palestinians who long relied on an Arab wall of support to serve as leverage against Israel. Bennett's trip comes as Israel is on the cusp of another political crisis, with members of his fragile coalition threatening to bolt unless the government can pass a law over the legal status of its West Bank settlers.

Abbas on 1st Appearance Since Death Rumors: Jerusalem is not for Sale
Ramallah- Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas dispelled rumors about his death with an audio intervention on Wednesday at a conference on Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa. “Jerusalem is not for sale, and all evidence and historical documents confirm the identity of Jerusalem, the Al-Aqsa Mosque and all the Islamic and Christian holy sites in our holy capital,” Abbas said, in a speech delivered over the phone to a conference entitled, Property Documents and the Historical Status of the Blessed Al-Aqsa Mosque.
“We will not allow and will not accept a change in the legal and historical status quo at Al-Aqsa, whatever the circumstances,” he told the conference that was held at the headquarters of the Red Crescent in Al-Bireh. The Palestinian president stressed that the conflict with the Israeli occupation was essentially political, “not a conflict with a particular religion.”He continued: “Jerusalem and Palestine are not for sale, and we have foiled all suspicious projects to liquidate the Palestinian cause, in particular the deal of the century.”
His comments came following rumors that spread earlier on Wednesday about his death. The Palestinian presidency published photos of Abbas delivering his speech over the phone. In the background the screen of the Palestine TV broadcast the live intervention of the president. News websites and activists on social media platforms talked of Abbas’ death, days after reports emerged about the deterioration of his health. The Fatah Movement spokesman, Osama al-Qawasmi, denied the rumors, stressing that the president was in good health. Speculations over the health of Abbas, 86, started earlier this week with brief news reported by some media outlets, including BBC Arabic, that Abbas had asked the Secretary of the PLO Executive Committee, Hussein Al-Sheikh, to perform some of his essential tasks as he was suffering from some health problems.

No Way Out as Iraq's Dangerous Post-election Impasse Deepens
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 June, 2022
Eight months after national elections, Iraq still doesn’t have a government and there seems to be no clear way out of the dangerous deadlock.
Political elites are embroiled in cutthroat competition for power, even as the country faces growing challenges, including an impending food crisis resulting from severe drought and the war in Ukraine, The Associated Press said.
For ordinary Iraqis, everything is delayed. The caretaker government is unable to make crucial electricity payments or draft plans for badly needed investment ahead of the critical summer months. Investments to upgrade water infrastructure have been paused while unemployment, water shortages and concerns over food security are drawing public anger. The election was held several months earlier than expected, in response to mass protests that broke out in late 2019 and saw tens of thousands rally against endemic corruption, poor services and unemployment.
The vote brought victory for powerful Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and was a blow for his Iran-backed Shiite rivals, who lost about two-thirds of their seats and have rejected the results. Personal vendettas spanning decades underpin the Shiite rivalry, pitting al-Sadr and his Kurdish and Sunni allies on one side against the Coordination Framework, a coalition led by Iran-backed Shiite parties, and their allies on the other. In the middle are the independents, themselves divided amid attempts by rival factions to lure them to either side. “It’s not about power; it’s about survival,” said Sajad Jiyad, an Iraq-based fellow with The Century Foundation.
Meanwhile, anger among the Iraqi public is growing as food prices soar and electricity cuts worsen. Last month, caretaker Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was forced to leave the Baghdad funeral of a celebrated poet after some mourners began chanting anti-government slogans and pelting the convoys of other government officials. “Political obstruction impacts the work of the government and the state, and lowers the morale of citizens,” al-Kadhimi told reporters on Tuesday, blaming the impasse for obstructing his reform plans. The UN envoy for Iraq, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, warned Iraqi political leaders last month that “the streets are about to boil over” and said national interests were “taking a backseat to short-sighted considerations of control over resources.”Al-Sadr, whose party garnered the most seats in the election, has not been able to corral enough lawmakers to parliament to get the two-thirds majority needed to elect Iraq's next president — a necessary step ahead of naming the next prime minister and selecting a Cabinet. Al-Sadr's tripartite alliance includes Taqadum, a Sunni party led by Mohammed Halbousi who was elected parliament speaker in January, and the Kurdish Democratic Party lead by Masoud Barzani. The bloc is intent on forming a majority government, which would be a first since a consensus-based power-sharing system was introduced following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein.
The government would exclude Iran-backed Shiite rivals of the Coordination Framework, which includes former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law and the Kurdish Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party.
Both al-Sadr and al-Maliki, longtime bitter political adversaries, have built up loyalists throughout ministries to advance their political agendas and fear that if in power, the other will use state resources — including the judiciary, anti-corruption committees — to purge institutions of rivals.
Also, al-Sadr and Qais al-Khazali, whose powerful Iranian-backed militia is part of the Framework alliance, are engaged in a deadly feud, with assassination campaigns targeting members of their militias across Iraq’s Shiite southern heartland.
Paradoxically, the current stalemate is in part a consequence of parties moving away from sectarian-oriented groups. In the past, Shiite alliances would form a united front to negotiate with Sunni and Kurdish blocs. But this time, alliances have crossed sectarian lines, inflaming tensions within each sect.
In the absence of an agreement, many fear violent protests by al-Sadr’s large grassroots following and potential clashes with Iran-backed militias.
In a May 16 speech, a visibly frustrated al-Sadr pledged never to strike a deal with his rivals. He also alluded to the capabilities of his own militia, Saraya Salam, which recently opened the doors for recruits in Babylon and Diyala provinces.
Al-Sadr was also angered by a recent Iraqi Supreme Court decision prohibiting the caretaker government from drafting and passing laws. This effectively struck down an emergency food bill needed for the caretaker government to use public funds to pay for food items and buy energy from Iran in the absence of a budget. Al-Sadr, who had pushed the bill, saw the court's decision as a move leaning toward the Framework. However, in a small win for al-Sadr, Parliament convened late Wednesday and passed the food security bill. Iraqi militia leaders speak privately of concerns that the stalemate could ignite street protests by supporters of al-Sadr and dissolve into violence between them and rival armed Shiite militias, The Associated Press said.
Iraq has in the past seen protracted political wrangling among rival groups on choosing a new president and prime minister, though the current stalemate in electing a president is the longest yet.
This time, Iran has not been able to mend rifts between Shiite rivals — a role that used to fall to the top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in January 2020. At least three trips to Iraq by Soleimani's successor to mediate among Shiites failed to produce a breakthrough.
Recently, Tehran cut 5 million cubic meters of gas exports to Baghdad, citing non-payment issues. Iraq's Electricity Minister Adel Karim told The Associated Press last month he had no idea how Iraq would pay the nearly $1.7 billion in arrears before the scorching summer months. Meanwhile, the independents — parties drawn from the 2019 protest movement who ran under the so-called Imtidad list and won nine seats in the 329-seat legislature — seem to have lost their way. They had sworn to become a formidable opposition force to represent the protesters' demands in parliament. The head of the movement, Alaa Rikabi, recently froze his position after members resigned over his vote in favor of electing Halbousi as parliament speaker. The protesters see Halbousi as complicit in the killings of activists during the protests. A spokesman for Imtidad, Rasoul Al-Saray, said the two Shiite blocs want to use the independents “to cover their failure to form a government.” Some independents have said they faced threats and fear for their lives; one said he was offered tens of thousands of dollars in way of bribes to side with the anti-Sadrist group. The independents spoke anonymously, fearing for their safety. With prospects for a consensus government dwindling, some have floated the option of new elections. But Jiyad, the Century fellow, disagrees. “It’s starting from zero and a risk to everyone,” he said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 09-10/2022
Why Biden Needs to Fight, Not Appease, the Enemies of Peace
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/June 09/2022
While Hamas and the Houthis target Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership, in addition to that, continues to act against the interests of its own people. PA President Mahmoud Abbas appears to be encouraged by the unconditional support he is receiving from the Biden administration, to the point where he feels free to continue denying his people good governance and judicial due process.
All signs now indicate that most people in the region are fed up with the anti-peace camp in the Arab and Muslim world, especially with Iran's proxies Hamas, the Houthis and Hizbollah, all of which have offered the region, including the Palestinians, nothing but violence and bloodshed.
Whenever Abbas feels encouraged by the US, he sees that support as a green light, this time from the Biden administration, to impose more suppression on his people and to whip up violence in the region.
Does the Biden administration really want as its legacy that it backed, encouraged and funded unscrupulous, violent regimes – the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Chinese Communist Party, the state sponsor of terrorism Iran, the illegitimate rule of Venezuela's Maduro – and the corrupt government of Mahmoud Abbas?
Meanwhile, Iran's proxy, Hamas -- whose charter calls not only for the elimination of peace but also of all Jews -- continues to urge Arabs and Muslims not to normalize their ties with Israel.
Iran, among other atrocities, imprisons attorneys for defending human rights, executes minors, and criminalizes human rights activism. If that is how Iran's regime treats its own people, what makes anyone think it will treat other countries -- in the region or in Europe -- any better?
And in a rare occurrence, according to the veteran Iranian journalist Amir Taheri, demonstrators in Iran have recently been publicly calling for regime change.
The Pakistani minister, however, is mistaken if she thinks that firing a journalist will support the rights of the Palestinians. Such myopic measures only support and embolden the enemies of peace, stability and human rights in the Middle East: Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey and Iran.
People who say they care about the Palestinians can genuinely support them by defending journalists and human rights activists who are being persecuted, harassed and even killed by the Palestinian Authority. People who claim they are "pro-Palestinian" can truly help the Palestinians by coming to the West Bank and defending freedom of speech and the press, and teaching Palestinians about democracy and respect for human rights. Spreading hate against Jews does not make one "pro-Palestinian."
The Pakistani government's decision is a big prize to despots and tyrants in the region, such as Iran and its many proxies, and a severe blow to attempts to build bridges between Arabs and Muslims and Christians and Jews.
A sure-fire way for Biden to get immediate and full cooperation from the Saudis would be, on his planned visit, to commit to entirely eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons program. The US has the capability, apparently just not the will. To begin with, any country that is officially on the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, period. It is what all serious discussions in the region are about. For everyone in the region except fundamentalist Qatar -- and including the Iranian people, the mullahs' regime is a mortal threat.
If Biden, as the leader of the Free World, would totally remove this threat, it would not only go a long way to preventing a nuclear war and regional arms race, and persuade the Saudis to export more oil, but after the threat is eliminated, it would send a message of deterrence to Russia, China, North Korea and other adversaries about what they could expect, and turn Biden's poll numbers around overnight.
These increased efforts to foil peace are the main reason that the Biden administration needs to work toward strengthening and expanding the entities in the Middle East who want peace. President Joe Biden's planned visit to Saudi Arabia is a praiseworthy first step. Saudi Arabia may not be perfect -- no country is -- but at least it not aggressively trying to take over its neighbors.
It is crucial that the Biden administration throw its full weight behind encouraging Saudi Arabia to be a leader for peace, stability and, as it has been doing, if slowly, advancing human rights.
Any efforts to cozy up to Iran will only be seen as hugging and empowering ruthless despots. It is more important to seek allies, wherever they can be found, that are eager to discard aggression and violence. Failing to do so will just plunge the region into a massive war -- which Iran, its terrorist groups and the US administration unfortunately seem to be working toward day and night.
Whenever Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (pictured) feels encouraged by the US, he sees that support as a green light, this time from the Biden administration, to impose more suppression on his people and to whip up violence in the region.
The enemies of peace in the Middle East are continuing their efforts to destroy any effort to normalize relations between Israel and the Arab and Muslim countries.
The enemies of peace want Arabs and Muslims to remain in a continual state of war with Israel. They want more violence and bloodshed, not Arabs and Muslims and Jews working together in various fields, including technology or anything that might bring economic prosperity.
Does the Biden administration really want as its legacy that it was the first in American history to be for oppressors and against human rights, freedom and prosperity for the downtrodden?
There are no human rights to speak of in entities such as Iran, Pakistan or the Palestinian Authority.
Iran, on the US list of State Sponsors of Terrorism since 1984, has been called by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken a "leading sponsor of state terrorism" -- as detailed just weeks ago by America's own State Department. On April 13, the United States Institute of Peace reported:
"Iran's human rights record was extremely poor in 2021, the State Department reported. Security, judicial and political officials carried out extrajudicial killings, conducted torture and arbitrary detention, restricted free expression and religious freedom, recruited child soldiers and discriminated against women and minority groups, among other offenses. 'The government took few steps to identify, investigate, prosecute, and punish officials who committed human rights abuses or corruption,' the 2021 Country Report on Human Rights Practices report said.
"'Governments are growing more brazen in reaching across borders to threaten and attack critics,' Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted. 'Iranian intelligence agents plotted to kidnap an Iranian American journalist from her home in Brooklyn.'"
Iran, among other atrocities, imprisons attorneys for defending human rights, executes minors, and criminalizes human rights activism. If that is how Iran's regime treats its own people, what makes anyone think it will treat other countries -- in the region or in Europe -- any better?
And in a rare occurrence, according to the veteran Iranian journalist Amir Taheri, demonstrators in Iran have recently been publicly calling for regime change.
The Lebanese, last month, voted that they have had enough of Iran's proxy, Hizbollah. The only question now remains what to do with Hizbollah's masses of "peaceful" weapons.
Another Iranian proxy, Yemen's Houthis, showed their gratitude to the US for removing them from the US List of Foreign Terror Organizations, by attacking Abu Dhabi with drones and missiles and striking a Saudi oil depot.
All signs now indicate that most people in the region (for instance, here, here , here, and here) are fed up with the anti-peace camp in the Arab and Muslim world, especially with Iran's proxies Hamas, the Houthis and Hizbollah, all of which have offered the region, including the Palestinians, nothing but violence and bloodshed.
The enemies of peace sense that the Biden administration is weak, so apparently they are now feeling confident to increase their campaigns of terrorism and intimidation against those Arabs and Muslims who would like their countries to enjoy "a new era of peace, stability, and prosperity across the region," as the Emirati trade minister, Thani al-Zeyoudi, said on Twitter.
Iran continues to encourage its proxies to launch terrorist attacks against neighbors in the Middle East such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Iran, too, seems to view the Biden administration as being weak and obsequious.
While Hamas and the Houthis target Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) leadership, in addition to that, continues to act against the interests of its own people. PA President Mahmoud Abbas appears to be encouraged by the unconditional support he is receiving from the Biden administration, to the point where he feels free to continue denying his people good governance and judicial due process.
Last year, Abbas called off the PA general election after realizing that Hamas's chances of winning the vote were higher than those of his Fatah faction. Shortly after, Abbas's security officers beat to death an anti-corruption activist, Nizar Banat, in the city of Hebron. The murder was followed by protests from Palestinians "calling for the resignation of the Palestinian president." Fourteen officers involved in the murder have gone on trial, but the family of the slain activist and legal experts say that the trial is moving too slowly, is "incomplete," and that the PA security forces are harassing and intimidating some of the witnesses.
Whenever Abbas feels encouraged by the US, he sees that support as a green light, this time from the Biden administration, to impose more suppression on his people and to whip up violence in the region.
Does the Biden administration really want as its legacy that it backed, encouraged and funded unscrupulous, violent regimes – the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Chinese Communist Party, the state sponsor of terrorism Iran, the illegitimate rule of Venezuela's Maduro – and the corrupt government of Mahmoud Abbas?
Meanwhile, Iran's proxy, Hamas -- whose charter calls not only for the elimination of peace but also of all Jews -- continues to urge Arabs and Muslims not to normalize their ties with Israel.
Here is what Hamas's charter says: "Israel will exist and will continue to exit until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before."
Its charter also warns against any attempt by Arabs and Muslims to make peace with Israel:
"Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic Resistance Movement [Hamas]. Abusing any part of Palestine is abuse directed against any part of the religion." (Article 13, Hamas charter)
A few months ago, Hamas praised Mauritania for refusing to establish relations with Israel. Last month, Hamas praised the Iraqi parliament for passing a law that criminalizes normalization with Israel.
Alarmed by the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab countries, a number of Palestinian and Arab researchers earlier this month recommended the establishment of an "Arab and Islamic Front" to boycott Israel and oppose normalization with it.
This came during a virtual conference held in the Gaza Strip by the Council of International Relations in partnership with the Palestine-Malaysia Center for the Strategic Initiative and the Anti-Normalization Campaign.
The participants of the conference , held under the banner of "The New Wave of Normalization, Repercussions and Confrontation Strategies," stressed the need to:
"... reject, criminalize and prohibit normalization with the [Israeli] entity in all fields, and work to activate popular resistance in all regions of Palestine and the diaspora along with armed resistance, in addition to activating Palestinian diplomacy in defending the interests of the Palestinian people."
They also called on the Arab League to prevent Arab countries from concluding normalization agreements with Israel, support Islamic countries that reject normalization, work to cancel peace agreements signed with Israel, and issue decisions and legislation that prevent governments from normalizing with it.
Senior Hamas official Ahmed Bahr said at the conference that Israel was seeking to "penetrate the Arab cultural heritage through cultural and economic normalization."
The head of the Council of International Relations and head of the boycott and anti-normalization campaign, Basem Naim, called for devising new strategies to counter Israel's alleged effort to "penetrate" the Arab and Muslim countries.
Sadly, some countries such as Pakistan have also begun to heed the calls to prevent peace. The Pakistani government announced that a journalist and broadcaster, Ahmed Quarishi, working for its official television outlet, had been dismissed from his job after visiting Israel, despite subsequent calls to rehire him.
The announcement was made by Pakistani Minister for Information and Broadcasting Marriyum Aurangzeb, who said that Pakistan's policy is clear and that it will not accept any kind of normalization.
According to Aurangzeb, "the reported visit in question was organized by a foreign NGO which is not based in Pakistan."
The Palestinian Media Forum, a group affiliated with Hamas, expressed its "great appreciation" for the decision to expel a journalist for visiting Israel., stating:
"This step reflects the authenticity of the Pakistani position in support of the Palestinian people and their just rights, and a rejection of the media normalization policy with the Israeli occupation."
The Pakistani minister, however, is mistaken if she thinks that firing a journalist will support the rights of the Palestinians. Such myopic measures only support and embolden the enemies of peace, stability and human rights in the Middle East: Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey and Iran.
Contrary to her belief, boycotting Israel and combating normalization with it do not contribute to "lasting peace" or the "two-state solution." On the contrary, such moves harm any prospect of achieving peace and security in the Middle East and play right into the hands of those seeking aggression, instability and destruction.
People who say they care about the Palestinians can genuinely support them by defending journalists and human rights activists who are being persecuted, harassed and even killed by the Palestinian Authority. People who claim they are "pro-Palestinian" can truly help the Palestinians by coming to the West Bank and defending freedom of speech and the press, and teaching Palestinians about democracy and respect for human rights. Spreading hate against Jews does not make one "pro-Palestinian."
The Pakistani government's decision is a big prize to despots and tyrants in the region, such as Iran and its many proxies, and a severe blow to attempts to build bridges between Arabs and Muslims and Christians and Jews.
These increased efforts to foil peace are the main reason that the Biden administration needs to work toward strengthening and expanding the entities in the Middle East who want peace. President Joe Biden's planned visit to Saudi Arabia is a praiseworthy first step. Saudi Arabia may not be perfect -- no country is -- but at least it not aggressively trying to take over its neighbors.
It is crucial that the Biden administration throw its full weight behind encouraging Saudi Arabia to be a leader for peace, stability and, as it has been doing, if slowly, advancing human rights.
A sure-fire way for Biden to get immediate and full cooperation from the Saudis would be, on his planned visit, to commit to entirely eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons program. The US has the capability, apparently just not the will. To begin with, any country that is officially on the US list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, period. It is what all serious discussions in the region are about. For everyone in the region except fundamentalist Qatar -- and including the Iranian people, the mullahs' regime is a mortal threat.
If Biden, as the leader of the Free World, would totally remove this threat, it would not only go a long way to preventing a nuclear war and regional arms race, and persuade the Saudis to export more oil, but after the threat is eliminated, it would send a message of deterrence to Russia, China, North Korea and other adversaries about what they could expect, and turn Biden's poll numbers around overnight.
Any efforts to cozy up to Iran will only be seen as hugging and empowering ruthless despots. It is more important to seek allies, wherever they can be found, that are eager to discard aggression and violence. Failing to do so will just plunge the region into a massive war -- which Iran, its terrorist groups and the US administration unfortunately seem to be working toward day and night.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based on the Middle East
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The Ukraine War Still Holds Surprises. The Biggest May Be for Putin.
Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/June 09/2022
Here’s a surprising fact: At a time when Americans can’t agree on virtually anything, there’s been a consistent majority in favor of giving generous economic and military aid to Ukraine in its fight against Vladimir Putin’s effort to wipe it off the map. It’s doubly surprising when you consider that most Americans couldn’t find Ukraine on a map just a few months ago, as it’s a country with which we’ve never had a special relationship.
Sustaining that support through this summer, though, will be doubly important as the Ukraine war settles into a kind of “sumo” phase — two giant wrestlers, each trying to throw the other out of the ring, but neither willing to quit or able to win.
While I expect some erosion as people grasp how much this war is driving up global energy and food prices, I’m still hopeful that a majority of Americans will hang in there until Ukraine can recover its sovereignty militarily or strike a decent peace deal with Putin. My near-term optimism doesn’t derive from reading polls, but reading history — in particular, Michael Mandelbaum’s new book, “The Four Ages of American Foreign Policy: Weak Power, Great Power, Superpower, Hyperpower.”
Mandelbaum, professor emeritus of US foreign policy at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (we co-wrote a book in 2011), argues that while US attitudes toward Ukraine may seem utterly unexpected and novel, they are not. Looked at through the sweep of US foreign policy — which his book compellingly chronicles through the lens of the four different power relationships America has had with the world — they’re actually quite familiar and foreseeable. Indeed, so much so that both Putin and China’s president, Xi Jinping, would benefit from reading this book.
Throughout US history, our nation has oscillated between two broad approaches to foreign policy, Mandelbaum explained in an interview, echoing a key theme in his book: “One emphasizes power, national interest and security and is associated with Theodore Roosevelt. The other stresses the promotion of American values and is identified with Woodrow Wilson.”
While these two world views were often in competition, that was not always the case. And when a foreign policy challenge came along that was in harmony with both our interests and our values, it hit the sweet spot and could command broad, deep and lasting public support.
“This happened in World War II and the Cold War,” Mandelbaum noted, “and it appears to be happening again with Ukraine.”
But the big, big question is: For how long? Nobody knows, because wars follow both predictable and unpredictable paths.
The predictable one regarding Ukraine is that as the costs rise there will be rising dissent — either in America or among our European allies — arguing that our interests and values have gotten out of balance in Ukraine. They will argue that we can neither economically afford to support Ukraine to the point of total victory — i.e., evicting Putin’s army from every inch of Ukraine — nor strategically afford to go for total victory, because, faced with total defeat, Putin could unleash a nuclear weapon.
One can already see signs of this in the statement by President Emmanuel Macron of France on Saturday that the Western alliance must “not humiliate Russia” — a statement that elicited howls of protest from Ukraine.
“Every war in American history has provoked dissent, including the Revolutionary War, when those who were opposed moved to Canada,” explained Mandelbaum. “What our three greatest commanders in chief — Washington, Lincoln and F.D.R. — all had in common as wartime presidents was their ability to keep the country committed to winning the war, despite the dissent.”
That will be President Biden’s challenge, too, especially when there is no consensus among the allies or with Ukraine on what “winning” there looks like: Is it the achievement of Kyiv’s currently stated goal of recovering every inch of its territory occupied by Russia? Is it enabling Ukraine, with the help of NATO, to deliver such a blow to the Russian Army that Putin is forced into a compromise deal that still leaves him holding some territory? And what if Putin decides he never wants any compromise — and instead wants Ukraine to endure a slow and painful death?
In two of the most important wars in our history, the Civil War and World War II, Mandelbaum said, “our goal was total victory over the enemy. The problem for Biden and our allies is that we cannot aim for total victory over Putin’s Russia, because that could trigger a nuclear war — yet something like total victory may be the only way to stop Putin from just bleeding Ukraine forever.”
Which brings us to the unpredictable: After more than 100 days of fighting, no one can tell you how this war ends. It was started in Putin’s head, and it will likely end only when Putin says he wants it to end. Putin probably feels that he’s calling all the shots and that time is on his side, because he can take more pain than Western democracies. But big wars are strange things. However they start, they can end in totally unpredicted ways.
Let me offer an example via one of Mandelbaum’s favorite quotes. It is from Winston Churchill’s biography of his great ancestor the Duke of Marlborough, published in the 1930s: “Great battles, won or lost, change the entire course of events, create new standards of values, new moods, new atmospheres, in armies and in nations, to which all must conform.”
Churchill’s point, Mandelbaum has argued, was that “wars can change the course of history and great battles often decide wars. The battle between Russia and Ukraine for control of the area in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas has the potential to be such a battle.”
In more ways than one. The 27 nations of the European Union, our key ally, are actually the world’s largest trading bloc. They have already moved decisively to slash trade with and investments in Russia. On May 31, the E.U. agreed to cut off 90 percent of Russia’s crude imports by the end of 2022. This will not only hurt Russia but also cause real pain for E.U. consumers and manufacturers, already paying astronomical prices for gasoline and natural gas.
All of this is happening, though, at a time when renewable energy, such as solar and wind, have become competitive in price with fossil fuels, and when the auto industry worldwide is significantly scaling up production of electric vehicles and new batteries.
In the short run, none of these can make up for the drop in Russian supplies. But if we have a year or two of astronomical gasoline and heating oil prices because of the Ukraine war, “you are going to see a massive shift in investment by mutual funds and industry into electric vehicles, grid enhancements, transmission lines and long-duration storage that could tip the whole market away from reliance on fossil fuels toward renewables,” said Tom Burke, director of E3G, Third Generation Environmentalism, the climate research group. “The Ukraine war is already forcing every country and company to dramatically advance their plans for decarbonization.”
Indeed, a report published last week by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, and Ember, a global energy think tank based in Britain, found that 19 out of the 27 E.U. states “have significantly stepped up their ambition in terms of renewable energy deployment since 2019, while decreasing planned 2030 fossil fuel generation to shield themselves from geopolitical threats.”
A recent article in McKinsey Quarterly noted: “The 19th century’s naval wars accelerated a shift from wind- to coal-powered vessels. World War I brought about a shift from coal to oil. World War II introduced nuclear energy as a major power source. In each of these cases, wartime innovations flowed directly to the civilian economy and ushered in a new era. The war in Ukraine is different in that it is not prompting the energy innovation itself but making the need for it clearer. Still, the potential impact could be equally transformative.”
Go figure: If this war doesn’t inadvertently blow up the planet, it might inadvertently help sustain it. And, over time, shrink Putin’s primary source of money and power.

Who Will Be the Next President? And How?
Nabil Amr/Asharq Al Awsat/June 09/2022
One man announced that he seeks the Palestinian presidency whether Abbas is around or not, the leader captive, Marwan Barghouti.
Those whose names are being circulated without their approval, on the other hand, are many. They are all competing in what aficionados of the press like to call "the strugglers over the caliphate," and all of them are members of Fatah.
The assumption that the President must be from Fatah, more specifically, from its central committee, was logical and even inevitable when Fatah had been in better straits. As for today, after those who had been expelled or had walked away became more numerous than those who remained, things have changed drastically. Two divergences that compel those interested to reflect and draw lessons from them have emerged. The first is somewhat old. When Fatah was united, before any of its members had openly defected, it lost the legislative elections to Hamas by a wide margin in 2006. This outcome was not the result of Hamas enjoying greater popularity in the Palestinian street but of Fatah's internal struggles, which left the party winning many votes without managing to turn them into seats.
As for the second, it is an incident that took place a year ago, when the President of the PA, who also leads Fatah, took the decision to hold legislative, presidential and national elections within a tight time frame that had been unanimously agreed upon by the various Palestinian factions.
Fatah entered the phase of preparing for these elections with three rival lists led by three different members of the central committee. Two of them had been expelled. As for the third, official Fatah could not expel him due to ethical, moral and public opinion considerations. However, these considerations left it losing a large segment of Fatah's base and the Palestinian people, whom opinion polls show favor Barghouti above anyone else.
The elections were postponed, and those who do not see this postponement as another word for cancellation are in denial, those who cannot see that fear of the results is the direct reason for the cancellation are ignorant. As for the official reason, Jerusalem, are the Palestinians still arguing about whether it is the real reason or is it an excuse?!
The political class, both geographical and ideological, does not favor elections even if it constantly pays them lip service. Everything that has happened since they were postponed confirms that the people have gone to alternatives, whether in terms of reformulating the divisions of the Palestinian Liberation Organization, as the pyramid has become inverted. The largest and most legitimate body has assigned the smallest body to take on its responsibilities. Since then, and perhaps indefinitely, the PA has been hiding behind the central committee, turning it into a substitute for everything.
The Palestinian political system that emerged through the Oslo Accords was accompanied by promises of a final settlement with Israel. It was hoped that with good intentions, this political system would complement the PLO's system established for exile and revolution, but what came to be is a schizophrenic political system in its personality, structure and tasks. It is no longer a question of separating the old from the new. Rather it developed in isolation, with no efficiency. The new state of affairs that had been built on elections was destroyed. In destroying it, two political movements emerged on the ground; one calls itself and is being dealt with as a resistance group, and the other wraps itself in legitimacy, which it had previously enjoyed per the old standards and international arrangements with it. This second movement is still trying to go through the needle that is a fair solution through the Oslo accords, which is getting narrower and closed every day.
In this case, what are the limits of the President's authority, whether he is from Fatah, Hamas, or parachutes down with an umbrella from anywhere else? How would Israel deal with this President who is named by consensus, election, or any other means? Before any Palestinian thinks about the presidency, he must first contemplate its limits and the effectiveness of his presidency and answer this question: Do the Palestinian people, the state they are in, need the head of an authority or a state whose land has dissolved and vanished, or does it need leadership and a system that unites the people, homeland, program, goal, management, resources, and everything that matters for the people and nation? President Abbas very recently warned that the Palestinian people's patience has limits, admitting that nothing is on the horizon and nothing above the very low bar that has been imposed can be achieved. President Abbas is too old to transform from PA president to revolutionary leader… so who will succeed him??The answer depends on how he gets there. The state of PLO, Fatah, the Palestinian Authority, and Palestinian politics more generally makes a consensus around a president impossible. Thus, there is no alternative to a single path for a president and legitimacy, the ballot box. Those concerned with improving the Palestinians' situation and avoiding sudden outbursts of violence should help with that.

Turkey barters with US, Russia ahead of Syria incursion
Nikola Mikovic/The Arab Weekly/June 09/2022
With the world’s attention focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, Turkey is preparing to launch its own “special military operation” in northern Syria. Ankara appears to be taking advantage of the conflict in Eastern Europe to achieve strategic goals in the Middle East.
It is not a secret that Turkey aims to create a 30-kilometre deep buffer zone across its border with Syria. But to do that, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would have to get the green light from Turkey’s NATO ally the United States, as well as at least a tacit approval from its frenemy Russia.
Turkish troops plan to seize the towns of Tel Rifaat, Kobani, Ain Issa and Manbij in northern Syria. Presently, the region is under the control of the Kurdish-dominated People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Turkey considers to be a terrorist organisation and an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The problem for Erdogan is that Washington sees the YPG as an allied force against ISIS militants. Could the US be about to “betray” the Kurds again?
Recent comments from State Department spokesman Ned Price indicate that the US and Turkey still have not reached a final deal on northern Syria. “We recognise Turkey’s legitimate security concerns on its border,” Price said. “But again, we are concerned that any new offensive would further undermine regional stability.”
Given that Washington needs Erdogan not to sabotage NATO membership requests from Finland and Sweden, it is entirely possible the US will soon indirectly approve the Turkish military incursion in northern Syria.
Without external support, Kurdish forces are unlikely to be able to withstand the combined power of the Turkish armed forces and its proxies from the remaining Syrian rebel stronghold in Idlib. If the US does not prevent Turkey from launching a military operation in the region, the Kurds will almost certainly lose control over a significant portion of strategically-important territory.
Still, it is questionable if the Turkish military will seize Manbij, a town that sits on a major intersection of roads on Syria’s west-east highway known as the M4. Given that it is the Russian army that patrols along this route, Turkey is unlikely to attack Manbij unless it first attempts to make a deal with the Kremlin.
From the Russian perspective, some sort of a “land swap”, Manbij for Jabal Al-Zawiya in Idlib, would be the best option. But given Russia’s weak position in the international arena, and its preoccupation with the ongoing military fiasco in Ukraine, it is unlikely that Turkey would agree to make such an arrangement. Instead, in order not to seize Manbij, Ankara could demand certain economic concessions from Moscow, such as a discount on Russian energy and grain.
Russia’s isolation does not allow the Kremlin to set any conditions on Turkey, which means that a potential deal with Erdogan would come at a very high price for Moscow.
Reports suggest that Russia has recently redeployed some of its troops from Syria to Ukraine. More importantly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s claim that “Russian forces in Syria have almost no military missions left” clearly indicates that, at least for the time being, what is happening in Syria is not Moscow’s top priority. For the Kremlin, at this point, it is very important to avoid a new escalation in the region and to preserve relatively good relations with Turkey.
It is not improbable, therefore, for Russia to simply turn a blind eye to a new Turkish incursion into Syria, even though such a move would represent another humiliation for the Kremlin on the global stage. Although Russia acts as a major ally of Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad, in reality Moscow cannot guarantee Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. A passive approach regarding Turkish operations in the north of the country would be yet another demonstration of Ankara’s leverage over Russia.
Theoretically, Russia could provide a “symmetrical response” to Turkish actions by pushing Assad’s Syrian Arab Army to launch a military offensive in Idlib. The problem, however, is that Assad’s forces are unlikely to make any significant gains in the province where Turkey increased its military presence, and continues backing its proxy forces, namely the Syrian National Army.
In response to Erdogan’s announcement of an operation in northern Syria, Russia has reportedly sent fighter jets and helicopter gunships to a base close to the border with Turkey. The move could be interpreted as a message from the Kremlin to Ankara. But Turkey is quite aware of Russia’s extremely poor military performance in Ukraine, as well as Russia’s unfavourable geopolitical position and therefore Moscow’s gesture will be seen as an empty threat that will not affect its military plans.
The fate of the Syrian Kurds will largely depend on the US, rather than on Russia. If the US approves Turkish actions, Ankara will establish control over significant portions of northern Syria. In the future, Turkey, through its Syrian rebel proxies, would be able to use the territory as an instrument against Assad in Damascus and his ally Russia.

How US diplomacy can provide a solution in northeast Syria
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/June 08, 2022
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again raised the issue of an incursion into Syria. Such operations are a periodic assignment for the Turkish military. Every time they feel the heat of the Kurdish militants and every time they feel they can exert pressure, they conduct an incursion to set the People’s Protection Units, known as the YPG, back. However, this policy is not sustainable and the idea of a safe zone to house relocated refugees is not feasible. There needs to be a more sustainable arrangement that can contribute to a permanent and comprehensive solution to the Syrian conflict.
The Kurdish issue did not arise with the YPG and the fight against Daesh. It goes back to long before that. To understand the YPG in Syria, you need to understand the Kurdish issue in the region. The Kurds as an ethnic group are spread over four countries: Iraq, Syria, Iran and Turkey. Each of those countries has been suspicious of the Kurdish national movement.
In Syria, under the fake Arabization policy of the Baath regime, the Kurds were displaced in order to separate them from their kinsmen in neighboring countries. They were displaced from their villages and towns and replaced by Arabs. Kept under the thumb for decades under the rule of the brutal Assad regime, the Kurds did not have much to say. However, the opportunity for emancipation came with the eruption of Daesh.
The Obama administration found them to be a safe bet to fight the terrorist group. The US had question marks about other Arab Sunni fighters, fearing that they might have affinity with fundamentalist groups. So, the US relied on the Kurds to fight Daesh and started arming them, as well as giving them political support, with minimal supervision.
This goes back to the “by-with-through” approach that the US pursued following the Iraq war. The Iraq war, in which the Americans themselves were heavily invested, proved to be very costly in terms of both money and blood. Hence, the policy the US now follows is to have a light footprint and to rely on local partners to achieve its goals. This is why the Kurds were empowered.
Even though the fight against Daesh is now over, the US still needs the Kurds to prevent the reemergence of the group, as well as to guard the Al-Hol camp, which has an estimated 56,000 inmates with affiliations to terrorist groups.
The Kurds today find themselves in a position where they can reclaim what was theirs. However, this would be like opening Pandora’s box. If some government employee was transferred to the north and given a house in the 1960s, his grandchild who now lives in the house is not at fault. However, the attempt by the Kurds to regain their land and their empowerment has created tensions with the local Arab population.
On the other hand, Turkey believes that the YPG is the Syrian branch of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK. They both follow the cult of Abdullah Ocalan and his ideology. There is a general consensus in Turkey, which extends beyond Erdogan, on the need to push the YPG away from the border areas, hence the successive incursions. However, this policy of going into Syria every now and then and giving the Kurds a slap does not work. It also inflames the tensions between the Arabs and the Kurds, as the Turks are supported by local Arab groups.
Here, the US can play the role of mediator and put pressure on the YPG, which is now negotiating with the Assad regime. Washington has to acknowledge the security concern of Turkey, its NATO ally, especially as the US needs Ankara more than ever in order to rein in Russia.
The YPG has been controlling local councils and dominating their decision-making. Though the councils have legislative and executive councils, it is usually the YPG’s informal network of “kadros” that call the shots. In this respect, the US can pressure the YPG to make the local councils more representative. The White House can empower the councils and make them directly elected by the local people, which would ensure greater Arab representation and ethnic diversity.
The most important issue is for the US to render the YPG accountable to the local councils and not the other way round. Also, when the local councils are more representative of the different factions and not dominated by the YPG, Turkey would be encouraged to engage with them. So far, for example, water restrictions have been used as a punitive measure against groups Turkey considers as hostile. But if the local councils were acceptable to Turkey, then there could be coordination on the water issue. This would be a big advantage the local councils could bring to the population.
If Turkey used water as an incentive instead of a weapon, it would empower the local councils and, in turn, create a balance in the northeast of Syria that could diffuse the tensions between the Arabs and the Kurds and decrease the control of the YPG.
The most important issue is for the US to render the YPG accountable to the local councils and not the other way round.
At the same time, this arrangement would allow the northeast to prosper economically. Turkey would be enticed to promote cross-border trade if its security concerns were answered. As water from Turkey would be flowing across the northeast, life and agriculture would improve. This could be important for Turkey as, sooner or later, it needs to nurture good relations with its neighbors.
This is the time for the US to put its diplomacy to work. It needs to condition its aid to the autonomous region in the northeast on power-sharing and government reform. To do that, it needs to send a large number of diplomats to monitor the reform process and ensure transparency and compliance. This would prevent the periodic Turkish incursions, while guaranteeing the rights and security of both the Kurds and Turkey.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese NGO focused on Track II.