English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 06/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
No one can enter the kingdom of God without being born of water and Spirit.What is born of the flesh is flesh, and what is born of the Spirit is spirit.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 03/05-08:”Jesus answered, ‘Very truly, I tell you, no one can enter the kingdom of God without being born of water and Spirit. What is born of the flesh is flesh, and what is born of the Spirit is spirit. Do not be astonished that I said to you, “You must be born from above.” The wind blows where it chooses, and you hear the sound of it, but you do not know where it comes from or where it goes. So it is with everyone who is born of the Spirit.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 05-06/2022
The Greatest Fraud: “The Syrian Army entered Lebanon to protect the Christians”/Bachir Gemayel Academy/1st of June, 1976
Letter to Energean: As Lebanese and rightful owners of the natural resources, we demand from Energean to halt its production of Lebanese natural resources to Israel’s benefit./Elie Aoun/June 05/2022
Lebanon warns against drilling in offshore field as gas rig reaches Israeli waters
Aoun says any Israeli activity in disputed sea area is a 'hostile act'
Aoun to call for PM consultations next week as Miqati remains leading candidate
Berri urges govt. that has support of 'all parties'
Miqati warns of 'very dangerous' situation after Israeli ship enters disputed area
Can Miqati be re-appointed as PM?
Lebanon Warns Against Any Israeli 'Aggression' in Disputed Waters
Al-Rahi, presided over the Mass service in appreciation of the beatification of the Capuchin fathers, Leonard Owais Melki and Touma Saleh
Lebanon Cenbank Governor, Brother Sue State over ‘Mistakes’ in Embezzlement Probe
Lebanon: Change Should Not Remain a Purely Moral Stance/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 05/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 05-06/2022
Iranian scientist and a senior military officer found dead in mysterious circumstances amid a new wave of tension between Iran and Israel
Jordan Army: 2 Pilots Killed in Plane Crash
SDF: Syria Army Should Use Air Defenses Against Turkish Invasion
Death Toll in Iran Building Collapse Rises
Explosions rock Kyiv as battle for Severodonetsk rages
Putin: Russia Will Strike Harder if Longer-range Missiles Supplied
Moscow threatens to hit new targets if long-range missiles given to Kyiv
Bidens Safe after Private Plane Enters Airspace in Rehoboth Beach
Tunisia Judges to Suspend Work in Courts over Purge
North Korea Launches Multiple Ballistic Missiles
3 killed, 11 wounded in Philadelphia shooting

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 05-06/2022
Interim Proposals for a Nuclear and Oil Deal with Iran/Raghida Dergham/The International/June 05/2022
Did Biden’s Big Speech Change Anyone’s Mind?/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/June 05/2022
Sorry, We Are Not Essential to Confronting Extremism/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 05/2022
Iran: Towards a Summer of Discontent/Amir Taheri/ Asharq al-Awsat/June 05/ 2022
NATO Should NOT Pay Ransom to Turkey; Instead, Should Amend Rules to Expel It/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/June 05/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 05-06/2022
The Greatest Fraud: “The Syrian Army entered Lebanon to protect the Christians”
Bachir Gemayel Academy/1st of June, 1976
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109072/%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d8%b5%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-01-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-1976-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%af%d8%ae%d9%84-%d9%84/

Letter to Energean: As Lebanese and rightful owners of the natural resources, we demand from Energean to halt its production of Lebanese natural resources to Israel’s benefit.
Elie Aoun/June 05/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109162/%d8%a7%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d8%b9%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%84%d9%89-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%83%d8%a9-%d8%a5%d9%86%d8%b1%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%a8%d8%b5%d9%81%d8%aa%d9%86%d8%a7/
The following is a complaint letter sent to Energean:
Energean announced a commercial gas discovery in the Karish field off the coast of Lebanon. Vessel FPSO Energean Power intends to begin production for the benefit of Israel in an area disputed between Israel and Lebanon.
Energean’s conduct is an infringement on the principle of permanent sovereignty: the right of every people and every State over their natural wealth and resources.
By implementing a production plan to benefit Israel from Lebanese resources, Energean would be aiding and abetting Israel in the commission of a crime against Lebanon. Energean’s assistance constitutes a substantial effect on the perpetration of the crime by providing the means for its commission.
By its actions, Energean is endangering the fundamental economic well-being of Lebanon and depriving the Lebanese population from a major source of revenue to revive their economy.
Furthermore, Energean’s corporate policy, posted on the company’s website, considers modern slavery as a “heinous crime and a morally reprehensible act that deprives a person’s liberty and dignity for another person’s gain.” Although, the statement implies human trafficking, the term “modern slavery” could describe any form of serious exploitation. By siphoning Lebanese natural resources to Israel, Energean would be committing a serious exploitation of Lebanese resources to Israel’s benefit.
As a result, Energean could be held liable and can be asked to indemnify Lebanon for the damages caused to Lebanon by Energean’s conduct which undermines the Lebanese people’s inherent right to fully utilize their natural wealth and resources.
As Lebanese and rightful owners of the natural resources, we demand from Energean to halt its production of Lebanese natural resources to Israel’s benefit.

Lebanon warns against drilling in offshore field as gas rig reaches Israeli waters
Times Of Israel/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Lebanese President Michel Aoun on Sunday warned Israel against drilling in an offshore natural gas field claimed by Beirut as the drilling rig entered Israeli waters.
Aoun’s office said the president discussed the matter with Prime Minister Najib Mikati and asked army leadership to keep him updated on the rig, which is operated by Greek energy firm Energean. It also noted ongoing US-mediated talks aimed at settling the maritime border dispute between Lebanon and Israel.
“Any action or activity in the disputed area represents a provocation and a hostile act,” the presidency said. According to Reuters, Mikati accused Israel of “encroaching on Lebanon’s maritime wealth, and imposing a fait accompli in a disputed area.” He called the Israeli move “extremely dangerous.”
“The decision about a response [to the ship’s entry] is in the hands of the state and Hezbollah,” Bassam Yasin, the head of the Lebanese delegation to the negotiations, was quoted saying by the Kan public broadcaster. Longtime foes Israel and Lebanon have held talks over the past year aimed at demarcating offshore exclusive economic zones. The disputed area, hundreds of square miles wide, is thought to contain large deposits of natural gas, a potential game-changer for Lebanon, which is mired in a devastating economic crisis.The Hezbollah terror group has warned Israel against unilaterally searching for natural gas in the disputed maritime region before any agreement is reached. The negotiations are meant to focus on an 860-square-kilometer (330-square-mile) disputed sea area according to a map registered with the United Nations in 2011. But in 2020, Lebanon demanded an additional area of 1,430 square kilometers further south, Lebanese energy expert Laury Haytayan said, characterizing the new phase of talks as a “war of the maps.”
The additional area extends into part of the Karish gas field which Israel has assigned Energean, which was expected to begin pumping gas to the Israeli domestic market last year. Karish, Hebrew for shark, contains 1.4 trillion cubic feet of proved and probable gas. Lebanon’s foreign minister responded positively in February to proposals from US negotiator Amos Hochstein on settling a maritime border dispute with Israel, as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah reportedly gave a green light to continue negotiations. However, Nasrallah expressed fierce opposition to the US-mediated talks last month, appearing to contradict the earlier reports. The area around Karish also includes a prospect known as Block 72, which is thought to also contain large hydrocarbon deposits. In June 2019, the Israeli government gave US-based Noble Energy the go-ahead to carry out exploratory drilling there, though development of the field has reportedly been hampered by worries over its fate in the dispute with Lebanon. Israel and Lebanon have no diplomatic relations and are technically in a state of war.
*Agencies contributed to this report.

Aoun says any Israeli activity in disputed sea area is a 'hostile act'
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
President Michel Aoun on Sunday held phone talks with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati and a number of officials following the reports about the entry of the gas drilling ship Energean Power into a sea border area disputed by Lebanon, the Presidency said. “He asked the Army Command to provide him with accurate and official information in order to act accordingly, noting that the sea border demarcation negotiations are still ongoing, and consequently any action or activity in the disputed area represents a provocation and a hostile act,” the Presidency added. It also noted that Lebanon had several weeks ago submitted to the U.N. a letter stressing its “adherence to its rights and maritime resources” and that “the Karish field lies in the disputed area.”

Aoun to call for PM consultations next week as Miqati remains leading candidate
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
There are "clear indications" that caretaker PM Najib Miqati will be re-appointed as premier with more than 65 votes from a host of parliamentary blocs, political sources said. Miqati might garner "70 votes," even without receiving any vote from the Free Patriotic Movement, the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party and the so-called "change forces," the sources told ad-Diyar newspaper in remarks published Sunday. Until the moment, Miqati has the support of Hizbullah, the Amal Movement, the Democratic Gathering, the Independent National Gathering, the Tashnag Party and "a significant number of independent or formerly pro-Mustaqbal MPs," the sources added. "The LF and some allied MPs will name their own candidate, while the change forces are seeking to agree on one candidate. The FPM is also trying to choose someone other than Miqati, after the latter stressed his rejection of any preconditions," the daily quoted informed sources as saying.Miqati's rejection of "preconditions" has "dashed the hopes of FPM chief Jebran Bassil as to imposing conditions that would improve his position in the new government," the sources added. Informed sources meanwhile told the daily that President Michel Aoun will next week call for the binding parliamentary consultations to name a new premier and that the consultations will be held in the week that follows.

Berri urges govt. that has support of 'all parties'
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has called for the formation of a new government that would enjoy the support of "all parties.""We have a chance that we should seize and not waste. Let us form a government that would enjoy the support of all parties," Berri has told Arab, foreign and U.N. ambassadors who have visited him, according to al-Joumhouria newspaper."We can turn parliament with all its components into a work cell that would provide the government with every assistance to enable it to make quick achievements," Berri added. He also called on the Lebanese to "show solidarity and unite in this period" and to "turn the page on the elections-related differences."

Miqati warns of 'very dangerous' situation after Israeli ship enters disputed area
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati on Sunday urged the U.N. and other international parties to compel Israel to stop its “dangerous provocations,” after a gas drilling ship crossed the so-called Line 29 and entered a sea area disputed by Lebanon. “The Israeli enemy’s attempts to spark a new crisis -- by infringing on Lebanon’s maritime resources and imposing a de facto situation in a disputed area in which Lebanon is adhering to its rights -- is a very dangerous matter that can trigger tensions whose consequences cannot be speculated by anyone,” Miqati warned in a statement.“Based on this, we warn of the repercussions of any wrong step prior to the resumption of the mission of the U.S. mediator, whose recommencement has become more than urgent,” the caretaker PM added. “We also call on the U.N. and all those concerned to contain the situation and compel the Israeli enemy to stop its provocations,” Miqati went on to say.He also underscored that “the solution lies in resuming negotiations” in a manner that preserves “Lebanon’s full right to its resources and waters.”

Can Miqati be re-appointed as PM?
Naharnet/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
The Shiite Duo and the Progressive Socialist Party lean toward re-appointing Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati, media reports said Friday. On the other hand, the Lebanese Forces party has stressed the need to name a sovereign PM, who guarantees that only the state take the war and peace decisions. The LF might suggest former President of the U.N. Security Council Nawwaf Salam, while the reformist MPs reportedly prefer not to name an LF-backed candidate and might name MP Halima Qaaqour. The PSP MPs have said that the government must be led by the majority and its PM must be sovereign. They stressed that it should be a political not a technocrat government. Yet, media reports have said that the PSP also leans towards re-appointing Miqati, a choice backed by France and Washington, according to al-Akhbar newspaper. The Free Patriotic Movement is reportedly against re-appointing Miqati who according to the FPM has been protecting the Central Bank governor. It called for a government that represents all parties, suggesting the name of Jawad Adra. Miqati had expressed in an interview his unwillingness to be re-appointed, suggesting other names like MPs Abdel Rahman Bizri, Ashraf Rifi and economist Amer Bsat. The binding Parliamentary consultations are expected to start at the middle of next week following the election of the parliamentary committees' members.

Lebanon Warns Against Any Israeli 'Aggression' in Disputed Waters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Lebanon warned Israel on Sunday against any "aggressive action" in disputed waters where both states hope to develop offshore energy, after a ship arrived off the coast to produce gas for Israel. President Michel Aoun said any activity in the disputed area would amount to an act of aggression and a provocation, after the arrival of the natural gas storage and production ship operated by London-based Energean. Israel says the field in question is within its exclusive economic zone, not in disputed waters, Reuters reported. But in a statement, the Lebanese presidency said Aoun discussed with caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati the vessel's entry "into the disputed maritime area with Israel, and asked the Army Command to provide him with accurate and official data to build upon the matter". Aoun said negotiations to delineate the southern maritime border continued and "any action or activity in the disputed area represents a provocation and an aggressive action". Israeli Energy Minister Karine Elaharrar welcomed the vessel's arrival and said she hoped it would be brought online quickly. "We will continue to work to diversify the energy market and maintain stability and reliability," she said. Energean said its floating production storage and offloading vessel arrived on Sunday at the Karish field, about 80 km west of the city of Haifa, in Israel's exclusive economic zone. The company said it planned to bring it online in the third quarter. Mikati said Israel was "encroaching on Lebanon's maritime wealth, and imposing a fait accompli in a disputed area", calling this "extremely dangerous".

Al-Rahi, presided over the Mass service in appreciation of the beatification of the Capuchin fathers, Leonard Owais Melki and Touma Saleh
NNAJune 04/2022 
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, presidثي a Mass service in appreciation of the beatification of the Capuchin fathers, Leonard Owais Melki and Touma Saleh, at St. Anthony Al-Badawani Church in their town in Baabdat. In his homily, the Patriarch considered that “with the beatification of two Lebanese martyr monks, God addresses, once more, the Lebanese officials, politicians and people, during the difficult circumstances we are living at all levels, calling us to open up to the work of the Holy Spirit.”“Let us put aside the voices of our personal, factional, partisan and sectarian interests, so that we can hear what the Spirit is telling us. When we all come out of ourselves, the Spirit unites us again as one, under the law of love, truth, freedom, justice and peace, in a homeland that we can then truly consider as “a final homeland for all its children,” al-Rahi said, citing the prelude to the Lebanese Constitution.
“It is not acceptable for political parties to view each other with hostility when the country is in dire need of reconciliation on clear national foundations that stem from Lebanon's constants,” he stressed.Al-Rahi prayed to the Lord Almighty, on this blessed occasion, to enlighten the minds and consciences and to preserve Lebanon, a land of holiness and one that praises and glorifies the Lord.

Lebanon Cenbank Governor, Brother Sue State over ‘Mistakes’ in Embezzlement Probe
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Lebanon's central bank governor and his brother are suing the state over what they say were "grave mistakes" made by a public prosecutor in his investigation of whether they had embezzled public funds, according to a copy of the lawsuit. Their claim has led to concerns that the public probe into the two brothers could stall, after similar lawsuits paralyzed an investigation into the devastating 2020 explosion at Beirut's port. Public prosecutor Jean Tannous has been investigating allegations of embezzlement and other misconduct at the central bank involving $300 million in gains made by a company owned by Raja Salameh, brother of Lebanese Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh. The brothers have denied the accusations. This week, they filed a suit against the Lebanese state accusing Tannous of committing "grave mistakes" through the course of his probe, according to a copy of the lawsuit seen by Reuters on Friday.
Tannous declined a Reuters request for comment while Riad Salameh did not immediately respond to a similar request. The document alleges that Tannous is biased and lacks the legal authority to access bank information, arguing that only the central bank's special investigation commission has that prerogative. The commission is typically headed by the central bank governor. Salameh told Reuters earlier this year he stepped back from presiding over it as far as it pertains to his case, "so there is no conflict of interest". The lawsuit also claims that Tannous's attempt to obtain account information from commercial banks in January as part of the probe violated banking secrecy laws. It also accuses Tannous of circumventing official channels to coordinate directly with judiciaries abroad on the probe. Riad Salameh is facing judicial probes in at least five European nations over the same accusations of embezzlement and money-laundering. In May, French investigative judge Aude Buresi traveled to Beirut and met with Tannous, Lebanon's top prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat, and other judges. During her visit, the central bank's special investigation commission handed over account information on Raja Salameh from nine Lebanese banks to Oueidat, in the first known case of such information-sharing. Nizar Saghieh, the head of rights watchdog Legal Agenda, said the lawsuit could "freeze the case indefinitely" as it was filed to a public court whose members have yet to be named. Similar lawsuits filed to this body have managed to stall another state investigation into the causes behind the Beirut port blast, which killed more than 215 people.

Lebanon: Change Should Not Remain a Purely Moral Stance
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 05/2022
Since the Lebanese voted in 13 deputies that the media has dubbed “forces for change,” Aounists and the axis of resistance have been waging a campaign against them. In the press and on social media, they sharpened their tongues. The “critics” kept their eyes locked on these “change” deputies, watching out for gaffs and overblowing them in an attempt to turn them into scandals. Thus, Beirut was witness to toxic character assassinations by the same factions that had previously had physical assassinations pinned on them.
It was expected that the parties most attached to and protective of the existing regime would launch such campaigns against the men and women in Parliament who didn’t abide by the regime’s criteria for entering the legislature. They were not carried by their religious sects, nor were they advocates for those sects and their interests, nor did they conceal their inclination to a new set of values and alternative ways of speaking, behaving and presenting themselves. Nor did they hide their sharp opposition to the manner in which the country is being governed, whether it is the duplicity of the means of violence or rampant corruption, a system of governance whose “accomplishments” extend from looting peoples’ bank deposits to blowing up the Port of Beirut...
This slander spoke to the distant past’s apprehension about omens it would prefer to nip in the bud. It could have been said that, like all slander, it is repugnant, and the only thing it demonstrates is that those behind it are isolated and feel vulnerable. However, the election of the Speaker, his deputy, and leading posts in Parliament, revealed another fact: the political representatives of the slander are strong and capable, and the distant past which they represent continues to weigh heavily on the present, while its forces and symbols are ready to coalesce and cooperate at difficult junctures. Thus, despite everything, the Amal Movement and Free Patriotic Movement coordinated on the latest vote in Parliament. One cannot but notice that the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, who distinguishes between petty and grand interests, is the one who built this consensus, which is considered “strategic,” in contrast to small, “tactical” matters. We know that this consensus engineered “under the table” was preceded by one that had been built “above the table” and sponsored by this same Good Shepherd, when he reconciled Suleiman Franjieh and Gibran Bassil in his home.
Mister “primary contradiction” is well aware that what begins with a malleable Speaker could well end with a malleable President and that electing the former can serve as prelude for electing the latter.
So let’s move from those hurling the insults, who do not deserve too much time, to their politicians and political factions, who have proven that they are still a broad ship and that they still have the ability to reproduce the system that keeps reproducing them. That is because the defeat dealt to the October 17 revolution, which the latest election tried to contain, put those on top back in their positions for reasons that surpass daily politics to the country’s social and economic fabric and its robust sectarian structures. It is true that the sectarian forces’ representation has significantly changed, but sectarian forces, when combined together, still constitute an overwhelming majority.
Such a map ought to push us to reconsider some of the meanings of change, how we conceive of opportunities to attain it and its chances for success. The “change” deputies, despite all the suffering in the country, remain a marginal force compared to this mainstream. That is a bad enough sign about Lebanon as a reality and an image, and we already know the outcome that would emerge if the sectarian mainstream and the non-sectarian margin were to clash. On the other hand, it seems that the only path toward some form of success is agreeing a certain entente with those who are a “lesser evil” mainstream forces, that is, those least implicated in the horrible things done by this regime and most harmed by its dominant figures (Hezbollah and FMP). Only by doing so, could the non-sectarians on the margins avoid being singled out and a more even political playing field could be established. Turning the principled stance (“all of them means all of them”) into an argument for disregarding the real contradictions within this mainstream or giving up what is possible today in the hopes of something that might be possible tomorrow would be extremely unproductive. Indeed, although those slogans and aspirations which were raised on October 17, are reasonable moral stances and a respectable keenness on purity, they are certainly not reasonable political banners if the aim is to actually achieve change. In addition to all that, we should keep in mind that the term “harmonious bloc” in describing the “change” deputies might not be very accurate. This fact will, in turn, compound the imbalance in the existing balance of power.
This assessment does not imply being assimilated by the “lesser evil” factions or allowing them to call all the shots. However, nothing undermines natural immunity like a fear of rubbing shoulders with other bodies, which is usually accompanied by nothing else than politics phobia and a horror at the prospect of being “contaminated” by it. On the other hand, this is not to absolve the “lesser evil” forces in the mainstream of their responsibilities. They come from past experiences that must be reassessed, and a manner of speaking and behaving that absolutely must be recalibrated to account for the developments that the “change” deputies speak to. They come also from a tradition of stubbornly opposing the idea of collaborating with non-sectarian forces whom they had not accounted for and who did not exist in their vision of politics, or at least of seeing it as bizarre. In this regard, it is always crucial that the “lesser evil” factions adopt more radical social and economic positions, especially in terms of curbing corruption and nepotism. In the event that, in contrast, things remain as they are, then we are looking at a recipe for electing a President that would make the election of the Speaker a few days ago seem like a reason to rejoice.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 05-06/2022
Iranian scientist and a senior military officer found dead in mysterious circumstances amid a new wave of tension between Iran and Israel
Bethany Dawsons/InsiderBusiness/June 05/2022
A military officer and a weapons scientist have died under mysterious circumstances in Tehran. Israel has taken responsibility for assassinating another senior officer, saying it was a "warning" to Iran's secret Unit 840. The deaths are ratcheting-up tensions between Iran and Israel. A military officer and a weapons scientist have died under mysterious circumstances in Tehran, fuelling tension between Iran and Israel.
Military officer Colonel Ali Esmaelzadeh died under unverified circumstances on Friday. The New York Times reported that various sources said his death was either an assassination, a suicide, or an accident.
Esmaelzadeh died just one week after the drive-by-shooting and the subsequent death of Colonel Sayad Khodaei outside his home in Tehran, another high-ranking officer in the same unit as Esmaelzadeh. The New York Times reported that an official briefed on official intelligence has confirmed Israel informed US officials that they were responsible for the killing of Khodaei. However, the paper also reported that two Israeli officials denied that the state was involved in the death of Esmaelzadeh.Both Esmaelzadeh and Khodaei were officers in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Force, Unit 840, a group that President Donald Trump labeled as a terrorist organization. Israel alleges it runs missions to kill foreigners abroad, according to The New York Times. The paper also reports that the Israelis advised the US officials that the assassination of Khodaei was a warning sign to halt the operation of Unit 840, of which he was allegedly the deputy commander. In reaction to Khodaei's death, General Hossein Salami, the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said in a speech on Monday that "none of the enemy's evil actions will go unanswered."Iran's state Tasnim news agency released a statement from the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps regarding the death of Khodaei, in which IRGC spokesperson General Ramezan Sharif said that "the thugs and the remnants of terrorist groups affiliated with the global arrogance and Zionism will be given punishment for their criminal act."Amid the tensions, Israel warned citizens on Monday against traveling to Turkey, as they believe Tehran could be seeking revenge for the assassination, Reuters reported. Along with the deaths of these men, Ayoob Entezari, an Iranian aerospace engineer who worked on developing missiles and drones, according to the Times of Israel, died under mysterious circumstances in Tehran.
Israeli newspaper Haaretz writes that Entezari is thought to have died from food poisoning, per an Iranian website report on Saturday. It followed a report in The New York Times of a drone attack on a military base near Tehran that left an Iranian engineer dead and another person injured.
Israel-Iran tensions
The enmity between the Jewish state and the Islamic republic is fuelled by multiple geopolitical factors, including the Israel-Palestine conflict – in which Iran has previously advocated for a Palestinian intifada to remove the "cancerous tumor" of Israel – and Israel's belief that Iran is building nuclear weapons, although Iran disputes this. In November 2021, Israeli officials said they were preparing for a potential conflict with Iran to prevent It from developing nuclear weapons. Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid said that "if a terror regime is going to acquire a nuclear weapon, we must act." Oil is another point of contention between the two countries. Israel reportedly attacked at least a dozen Iranian oil tankers bound for Syria in 2021, a violation of US and international sanctions on the country.In 2021, Israel accused Iran of intentionally orchestrating an oil spill in an act of "environmental terrorism." The spill covered 90% of Israel's 120-mile Mediterranean coast with roughly 1000 tons of black tar.

Jordan Army: 2 Pilots Killed in Plane Crash
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Two Jordanian pilots were killed on Sunday in a plane crash in northern Jordan during training exercises, the Jordanian army said, citing a technical error. The training plane crashed in empty land in the Ramtha area near the border with Syria, the army added in a statement. It identified the dead pilots as Major Bilal Mashhour Ahmed Al-Shoufein and Captain Baha Muhammad Mustafa Abu Ghanmi.

SDF: Syria Army Should Use Air Defenses Against Turkish Invasion
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022e with Syrian government troops to fend off any Turkish invasion of the north, the SDF commander told Reuters on Sunday, saying Damascus should use its air defense systems against Turkish planes.
Ankara has vowed a new offensive on swathes of northern Syria controlled by the SDF, a Kurdish-led alliance that is spearheaded by the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG). The new threats have highlighted the complex web of ties in northern Syria: while Turkey considers the YPG a terrorist organization, Syrian Kurdish forces are backed by Washington and have also coordinated with Syria's government and its ally Russia. SDF head Mazloum Abdi said on Sunday that his forces were "open" to working with Syrian troops to fight off Turkey but said there was no need to send additional forces. "The essential thing that the Syrian army could do to defend Syrian territory would be use air defense systems against Turkish planes," he said in an interview by telephone from an undisclosed location in northern Syria. Syria sees Turkey as an occupying force in its north and the foreign ministry in Damascus said last month it would consider any new Turkish incursions as "war crimes and crimes against humanity". "Our priority is defending Syrian territory, and no one should think about taking advantage of that situation to make gains on the ground," said Abdi.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to capture the SDF-held towns of Tal Rifaat and Manbij in Syria's northern Aleppo province, most of which is otherwise held by Syrian government troops. Turkish-backed incursions in previous years have ousted the SDF from the northwestern enclave of Afrin and a series of border towns further east. Abdi said a new offensive would displace around one million people and lead to "wider" zones of fighting, but would not say whether the SDF would respond with attacks in Turkish territory itself. He warned it could also lead to a resurgence of ISIS.

Death Toll in Iran Building Collapse Rises
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
The death toll in a catastrophic tower collapse in southwestern Iran rose to at least 38 on Sunday, state TV reported, as emergency workers pulled another body from the rubble amid fears still more could be trapped in the destruction. It's unclear how many more people remain unaccounted for in the collapse of the still under-construction tower at the Metropol Building in Abadan nearly two weeks ago. Rescuers were still working and families still waiting for word of their loved ones despite promises the search operation would be finished by now. The structural building failure in Khuzestan province has focused public attention on shoddy construction practices and prompted mass allegations of government corruption and negligence. Authorities have arrested 13 people as part of a broad probe into the disaster, including Abadan's mayor, Hossein Hamidpour, who resigned last Friday. Protesters have gathered in mourning at the collapse site, denouncing top officials and demanding accountability, according to videos widely shared on social media and analyzed by The Associated Press. However, reporting on events in Abadan remains extremely difficult as the threat of arrest looms. Authorities have disrupted internet access, according to experts, restricting people’s ability to share videos and information.

Explosions rock Kyiv as battle for Severodonetsk rages
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Explosions rocked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Sunday as a regional governor said Ukrainian forces were pushing back against Russian troops in the strategic eastern city of Severodonetsk. The battle for Ukraine's eastern city of Severodonetsk was being waged street by street, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, while explosions rocked the capital early Sunday. "Several explosions in Darnytsky and Dniprovsky districts of the city. Services are extinguishing," Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram shortly after air raid warnings sounded in Kyiv and several other cities. "There are currently no dead from missile strikes on infrastructure. One wounded was hospitalised." Ukrainian officials said railway infrastructure was targeted in the first strikes on Kyiv since April 28 when a Russian missile killed a producer for the U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
Separately, at least 11 civilians were reported killed in the Lugansk region where Severodonetsk is located, the nearby Donetsk region and in the southern city of Mykolaiv. "The situation in Severodonetsk, where street fighting continues, remains extremely difficult," Zelensky said in his daily address Saturday evening. Cities in the eastern Donbas area at the heart of the Russian offensive were under "constant air strikes, artillery and missile fire" but Ukrainian forces were holding their ground, he said. Severodonetsk is the largest city still in Ukrainian hands in the Lugansk region of the Donbas, where Russian forces have been gradually advancing in recent weeks after retreating or being repelled from other areas, including around the capital Kyiv.
A city divided
Lugansk regional governor Sergiy Gaiday said Sunday that Russian forces had lost ground in the city. "The Russians were in control of about 70 percent of the city, but have been forced back over the past two days," he said on Telegram. "The city is divided in two. They are afraid to move freely around the city." Russia's army on Saturday claimed some Ukrainian military units were withdrawing from Severodonetsk but Mayor Oleksandr Striuk said Ukrainian forces were fighting to retake the city. "We are currently doing everything necessary to re-establish total control" of the city, he said in an interview broadcast on Telegram. For its part, Moscow claims to have destroyed two Ukrainian command centres and six ammunition depots in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. "Ukrainian forces are successfully slowing down Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian positions in Luhansk (region) as well as Russian frontal assaults in Severodonetsk through prudent and effective local counterattacks in Severodonetsk", the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said in an assessment late Saturday.
'Put Russia in its place'
Tens of thousands of people have been killed, millions forced to flee and towns turned into rubble since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an all-out assault on his pro-Western neighbor on February 24. Western powers have imposed increasingly stringent sanctions on Russia and supplied arms to Ukraine, but divisions have emerged on how to react. French President Emmanuel Macron said Friday Putin had committed a "fundamental error" but that Russia should not be "humiliated" so that a diplomatic solution could be found. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba reacted Saturday by saying such calls "only humiliate France" and any country taking a similar position. "It is Russia that humiliates itself. We all better focus on how to put Russia in its place," he said. Despite diplomatic efforts, the conflict has raged in the south and east of the country.Ukraine reported two victims from a Russian missile strike on Odessa in the southwest, without specifying if they were dead or wounded. Russia's defense ministry said it had struck a "deployment point for foreign mercenaries" in the village of Dachne in the Odessa region. It also claimed a missile strike in the northeastern Sumy region on an artillery training center with "foreign instructors."
Fears over food
Apart from the human toll, the conflict has caused widespread damage to Ukraine's cultural heritage. On Saturday, Ukrainian officials reported a large Orthodox wooden church, a popular pilgrim site, was on fire and blamed Russia. Moscow continues to prove "its inability to be part of the civilized world," Culture Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko said in a statement. Russia's defense ministry blamed "Ukrainian nationalists" for the blaze.Russian troops now occupy a fifth of Ukraine's territory, according to Kyiv, and Moscow has imposed a blockade on its Black Sea ports, sparking fears of a global food crisis. Ukraine and Russia are among the top wheat exporters in the world. The United Nations said it was leading intense negotiations with Russia to allow Ukraine's grain harvest to leave the country. Putin said Friday there was "no problem" to export grain from Ukraine, via Kyiv- or Moscow-controlled ports or even through Central Europe. The U.N. has warned that African countries, which normally import over half of their wheat consumption from Ukraine and Russia, face an "unprecedented" crisis. Food prices in Africa have already exceeded those in the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings and the 2008 food riots. The head of the African Union, Senegalese President Macky Sall, said Saturday he intended to visit Ukraine after meeting Putin the day before to discuss the wheat shortage.
'Game of survival'
Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov repeated the government's appeal for the swift delivery of heavy artillery Saturday. If Kyiv receives requested equipment, he said, "I cannot forecast definitely what month we will kick them out, but I hope -- and it's absolutely a realistic plan -- to do it this year." Away from the battlefield, Ukraine will be fighting for victory over Wales in Sunday's play-off final as they aim to reach their first football World Cup since 1958. "We all understand that the game with Wales will no longer be about physical condition or tactics, it will be a game of survival," said Ukraine player Oleksandr Zinchenko. "Everyone will fight to the end and give their all, because we will play for our country."

Putin: Russia Will Strike Harder if Longer-range Missiles Supplied
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
President Vladimir Putin warned the West that Russia would strike new targets if the United States started supplying Ukraine with longer-range missiles, the TASS news agency reported on Sunday. If such missiles are supplied, "we will strike at those targets which we have not yet been hitting," Putin was quoted as saying in an interview Rossiya-1 state television channel. Putin did not name the targets Russia planned to pursue if Western countries began supplying Ukraine with longer-range missiles. Ukraine has been seeking Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MLRS) such as the M270 and M142 HIMARS to strike troops and weapons stockpiles at the Russian forces' rear. US President Joe Biden announced plans this week to give Ukraine precision HIMARS rocket systems after receiving assurances from Kyiv that it would not use them to hit targets inside Russia. Although Russian officials have warned that the US decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems could exacerbate the conflict, Putin said it would not bring on any fundamental changes on the battlefield. "We understand that this supply (of advance rocket systems) from the United States and some other countries is meant to make up for the losses of this military equipment," Putin said. "This is nothing new," he said. "It doesn't change anything in essence."A barrage of Russian missiles struck Ukraine's capital early Sunday, hitting unspecified “infrastructure” targets, Kyiv's mayor said. No one was reported killed, with one person hospitalized with injuries. But the attack shattered a sense of calm in Kyiv, which hadn't seen similar strikes since the April 28 visit of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. And it showed that Russia still had the capability and willingness to target Ukraine's capital since abandoning its wider offensive across the country to instead focus its efforts in the east. Elsewhere, Russian forces continued their push to take ground in eastern Ukraine, with missile and airstrikes carried out on cities and villages of the Luhansk region, with the war now past the 100-day mark. On Sunday morning, Ukraine’s General Staff accused Russian forces of using phosphorus munitions in the Kharkiv region and said that Moscow continues to carry out missile and airstrikes on military and civilian infrastructure, including in Kyiv.

Moscow threatens to hit new targets if long-range missiles given to Kyiv
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned Sunday that Moscow will strike new targets if the West supplies long-range missiles to Ukraine and said new arms deliveries to Kyiv were aimed at "prolonging the conflict."If Kyiv is supplied with long-range missiles, "we will draw the appropriate conclusions and use our arms.... to strike targets we haven't hit before," Putin was quoted by Russian news agencies as saying, without specifying which targets he meant.

Bidens Safe after Private Plane Enters Airspace in Rehoboth Beach
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden were briefly evacuated from their vacation home on Saturday after a small private plane mistakenly entered the restricted airspace over Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, the White House said. The aircraft was immediately escorted out of the restricted airspace, US Secret Service spokesperson Anthony Guglielmi said. The pilot, who was not identified, would be interviewed, he said. "A preliminary investigation reveals the pilot was not on the proper radio channel, was not following the NOTAMS (Notice to Airmen) that had been filed and was not following published flight guidance," he said. The incident, which occurred shortly before 1 p.m. ET (1700 GMT), caused confusion in downtown Rehoboth Beach on a busy weekend, with the presidential motorcade racing through town before returning to the Bidens' residence. A Secret Service official said precautionary security measures were taken, but there was no significant threat to the president.

Tunisia Judges to Suspend Work in Courts over Purge
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Tunisia’s judges will suspend work in courts for a week and hold a sit-in to protest against a purge of their ranks. President Kais Saied this week dismissed 57 judges, accusing them of corruption and protecting terrorists in a crackdown on the judiciary - his latest step to tighten his grip on power in the North African country. Judge Hammadi Rahmani said a meeting of judges on Saturday voted unanimously to suspend work in all courts, and to start the sit-in, Reuters reported. On Saturday the Tunisian bar association announced a national strike in “all criminal, administrative and financial courts” for a renewable period of a week, starting Monday. In a session attended by hundreds of judges, some of the dismissed judges said the purge came after they rejected interventions from the justice minister and in some cases from people surrounding the president. Dozens of the judges present at the emergency meeting in Tunis strongly condemned the president’s continued interference in the judiciary, they said in a statement. They accused Saied of giving himself powers to lay off judges “without the slightest recourse to disciplinary procedures, violating the most basic right to defense as guaranteed in the constitution.”In February, Saied dissolved the Supreme Judicial Council, which deals with the independence of judges. He issued a decree to establishing a temporary council that is not recognized by the bar association.

North Korea Launches Multiple Ballistic Missiles
Asharq Al-Awsat/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast Sunday, South Korea's military said, a day after Seoul and Washington completed their first joint drills involving a US aircraft carrier in more than four years. Pyongyang has doubled down on upgrading its weapons program this year, despite facing crippling economic sanctions. "Our military detected eight short-range ballistic missiles fired from the Sunan area in Pyongyang, North Korea into the East Sea," Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, referring to the Sea of Japan. The launches took place over about 30 minutes on Sunday morning, it added. "While our military has strengthened surveillance and vigilance in preparation for additional launches, South Korea and the United States are closely cooperating and maintaining a full readiness posture."The launches took place at multiple locations, Tokyo said, adding that Pyongyang had tested missiles at "unprecedently high frequency" this year. "We can say the very large number of launches from at least three locations in a short period of time like this time is unusual," Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi said, confirming the North fired at least six missiles. "This is absolutely unacceptable," he added.
The launches came barely a day after South Korea and the United States wrapped up large-scale, three-day exercises involving the USS Ronald Reagan, a 100,000-tonne nuclear-powered aircraft carrier. They were the allies' first joint military drills since South Korea's hawkish new President Yoon Suk-yeol took office last month, and the first involving an aircraft carrier since November 2017. Pyongyang has long protested against the joint exercises, calling them rehearsals for invasion. "The exercise consolidated the two countries' determination to sternly respond to any North Korean provocations while demonstrating the US commitment to provide extended deterrence," the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement. Go Myong-hyun, a researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said Sunday's launch was likely a response to the US-South Korea maneuvers.
"It seems that they fired eight missiles because the scale of the joint drills has expanded in their view," he told AFP.

3 killed, 11 wounded in Philadelphia shooting
Agence France Presse/Sunday, 5 June, 2022
Three people were killed and 11 others wounded on Saturday after multiple shooters opened fire into a crowd on a popular Philadelphia street, police said.Police Inspector D. F. Pace told local media that two men and a woman had been killed, adding that officers responding to the incident "observed several active shooters shooting into the crowd.""You can imagine there were hundreds of individuals enjoying South Street, as they do every single weekend, when this shooting broke out," Pace said. He said that officers had fired at one of the shooters, though it was unclear whether the person was hit. Local media outlets reported that no arrests had been made. Pace said two handguns were recovered at the scene, and that police would have to wait until morning to review surveillance footage from nearby businesses that were closed on Saturday night. Pace described the investigation as "fluid," saying there were still "a lot of unanswered questions."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 04-05/2022
Interim Proposals for a Nuclear and Oil Deal with Iran
Raghida Dergham/The International/June 05/2022
Remarkable developments are shaping the relationship between energy and ideology in the economic and political calculations of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Equally remarkable are the efforts reported by official Russian circles to restore Russia's international status and position in an era of isolation resulting from the war in Ukraine.
The intersection between these two dynamics are the Vienna talks aiming to revive the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 countries, as a result of which sanctions on Iran would be lifted.
The negotiations, which the parties had hoped to conclude with an agreement by the end of May, have stalled, but they remain alive despite the impression that they have hit an impasse because of Tehran's insistence on the removal of the IRGC from the US terror list, a demand rejected by US President Joe Biden as he confirmed to Israeli PM Naftali Bennett.
Indeed, the need for Iran's oil to offset the fallout from the EU embargo on Russian oil has become a key consideration for all players in the Vienna talks, including Russia, after the war in Ukraine changed the rules of the game. The Biden administration needs fuel prices to be at a level that averts backlash from American voters prior to the mid-term elections in November, because many Americans judge their government at the fuel pumps. The European governments are in dire need for Iran's oil, and are pressuring Washington to make concessions, reminding the Americans that Europe has met their call to ban Russia's oil and soon, gas as well. China will fully benefit from a deal in Vienna, especially in terms of Iranian oil flow. Interestingly, Russia does not object. It believes that its endorsement of a Western-Iranian deal, despite its costs to Russia, will restore President Putin's status as an international player and break Russia's isolation. As for Iran itself, it appears ready for interim arrangements that remove the sanctions and allow it to sell its oil to save its economy and calm its raging street. It has thus hinted that it may be willing to postpone a decision about its demand to delist the IRGC as part of a staggered agreement that gives priority to oil exports and the economy, yet without fully abandoning the core of the regime's ideology and the central position of the IRGC in it.
Sources close to the thinking of the regime in Iran have reported proposals and ideas regarding interim and provisional arrangements to overcome the thorny issue of the IRGC, and the other thorny issue of Iran's insistence on US guarantees not to withdraw from any new agreement, to avert a repetition of Donald Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA after Barack Obama's term ended.
In the interim proposals, Iran is not giving up its two demands but it is showing understanding of President Biden's circumstances in Congress, in terms of providing permanent guarantees, and of the difficulty of Biden backing away from his pledge to the Israeli premier regarding the IRGC. For this reason, the interim proposals carry hints of Iranian consent to place contentious issues in a separate basket to discuss at a later stage, while a basket of priority agreements are agreed now. These include the commitment of the Biden administration to fully lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales, financial institutions, and the central bank, in return for Iran freezing uranium enrichment, and perhaps complying with US insistence on better IAEA-led monitoring mechanisms for the Iranian nuclear program.
Seyed Hossein Mousavian, security and nuclear policy expert at Princeton University who has promoted some of these ideas, wrote that after a year of negotiations, "there is an agreement on the choreography of how Iran and the US would rejoin" the nuclear deal, arguing that the circumstances arising from the US election in November necessitate understanding the existence of temporary hurdles. Therefore, "an interim deal could still salvage the accord and potentially provide the basis for full compliance by both sides after the US elections this November". In Mousavian's view, in the absence of the possibility of a full revival of the JCPOA, an interim deal would be a better option than war, citing the shadow war ongoing for years between Israel, the United States, and Iran on land, and in the sea,air, and cyberspace, as he said.
Perhaps the tone and substance of US envoy for Iran Robert Malley's testimony to the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee two weeks ago, was a wake up call for Iranian decision makers to come up with new ideas. Malley said there were big question marks surrounding the possibility of reviving the nuclear agreement, adding that the odds for success in Vienna were smaller than the odds for failure.
Robert Malley does not typically speak in a pessimistic language, and has persisted in his goal of achieving success at the Vienna talks. His remarks may have alerted the Iranians to the possibility of the collapse of the talks without an outcome, that is, without lifting the sanctions on Iran, bringing certain economic and political ruin to Tehran. Malley sounded the alarm, but was keen at the same time to say that the Biden administration still hoped a deal would be reached in the Austrian capital.
From an economic and financial perspective, any agreement in Vienna will benefit Iran. Oil revenues right now are more important than ideology, which the rulers of Iran may decide to put in suspended animation until Iran stands back on its feet economically, before reviving its ideology and regional instruments and commitments with a greater momentum later.
Iran could therefore agree to relax its demand for the delisting of the IRGC and even rein in the direct regional activities of the IRGC and its proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, this would be a temporary gesture of good faith, not the kind of permanent guarantees sought by the Biden administration and the European governments regarding Iran's regional behavior dominated by the creed and activities of the IRGC. Iran has refused to provide such guarantees. Today, it is thinking about improving its behavior in a de facto, temporary manner to reassure its counterparts, in return for permanently lifting the embargo on its oil sales and sanctions on its financial institutions.
Tehran is relying on European pressures to push the Biden administration to agree to such an interim deal, based on its potential for offsetting Russian oil supplies to Europe at a better price. The equation is simple: A quick and huge cash windfall for Iran through the sales of oil to Europe at a lower price, possibly $65 per barrel; immediate European access to an alternative to Russian oil; a boost for the Biden administration from the reduction in oil prices and increase in supply that would avoid US voter resentment in the fall; and a boost for China from the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil and financial institutions. But what about Russia?
Russia could lose financially and economically if sanctions are lifted on Iranian oil while Europe imposes a ban on Russian oil. Iran's return to the oil markets will be costly for Russia. However, according to Russian sources familiar with the thinking in the Kremlin, Russia and President Putin are in dire need for a "serious political victory that would enable Putin to appear as an important international player", which could be made possible through a deal in Vienna.
"Only the Vienna talks could secure a political victory for Putin," say these sources. If the talks succeed, Putin will be able to say that had he not facilitated the talks, their failure would have been inevitable. Putin could then use that breakthrough as a starting point not only for regaining his role as a serious international player, but also in a tripartite strategic framework with China and Iran, alongside a bilateral one with Iran that would have military and energy dimensions.
Putin needs Iran to be liberated from sanctions to fulfill his dreams of a troika that brings together Russia, China, and Iran. This thinking could be detached from reality, but Putin is still convinced of the possibility of victory in Ukraine, whereupon the West would backtrack from its measures against him and Russia. Even if the West does not backtrack, the troika in Putin's view could still be a strategic boon.
Bilaterally with Iran, the Russian president is convinced that freeing Iran from the sanctions followed by a windfall from oil sales will allow it to pay Russia for their massive arms deals. In addition, he remains confident in the military alliance with the Islamic Republic and mutual ways to avert sanctions imposed on both of them.
Iran could pursue a 'pocket it' approach to save the Vienna talks. That is, secure an economic victory by returning to the oil markets, then cross further bridges when it gets to it.An Iranian return to the oil markets carries immense benefits for Europe, led by the obvious oil ones. Europe no longer sees Iran as a threat, and is fully willing to cut a nuclear-oil deal.The Biden administration believes that Iran's return to the oil markets will lead the Gulf Arab countries to accept US oil, military, and security demands. While the Biden administration remains primarily occupied with the Ukraine war and the encirclement of Russia, it is moving at multiple levels in the Arabian Gulf as it readies itself for a nuclear-oil deal. All the while Tehran is smiling.

Did Biden’s Big Speech Change Anyone’s Mind?
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/June 05/2022
President Joe Biden gave a prime-time speech Thursday about gun violence. It was carried by all three broadcast networks, as well as the cable stations.
As presidential speeches go, it was fine; he mixed some aspirational policy goals with support for more modest objectives that may have a chance of passage, and added a little Republican-bashing to the mix. But why give such speeches?
We don’t know what the White House staff thought it could accomplish, but we do know that high expectations would have been unrealistic. Presidential speeches are highly unlikely to change anyone’s mind about public policy. That’s been true throughout the polling era. It’s been true when presidents are popular. It’s been true for presidents such as Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama who were generally thought to be strong public speakers. Given that Biden is not currently popular and the straight-into-the-camera policy speech isn’t his strength, there’s really no reason to think that he’ll change minds. At the same time, these speeches generally don’t improve a president’s polling numbers or spark voters to go contact their members of Congress with demands to do what the president wants.
One plausible goal is to inform party loyalists and supporters about a position they previously weren’t aware of. But gun safety isn’t that kind of issue; almost all solid Democrats already support the party’s position. Nor are such speeches going to have much effect on the other party’s adherents, who are much less likely to be watching. (In case anyone polls what speech-watchers thought, remember that there’s a strong selection effect at work, in which people from the president’s party are far more likely to watch, and therefore will make up the bulk of the respondents.)The one thing that presidents can potentially affect is agenda-setting; they can at times convince people that the topic of the speech is a very important issue. But that’s unlikely to happen here, given that gun violence is already dominating the headlines, news shows and social media.
Perhaps White House staffers didn’t know any of this, and thought they could accomplish the impossible. But there are a few more reasonable goals that they might have had in mind.The first would be simply as a matter of representation. When something important is happening, politicians often feel obliged to let their constituents know what they’re doing in response. There are also media expectations, and while Biden had already spoken multiple times on the subject, it’s possible that the White House wanted to avoid having the press criticize him for failing to do whatever he could to fight for his proposed measures. Or it could be that Biden’s allies — in Congress, within the party, among activists — were pushing for him to say more. For example, some Democratic senators might want cover to support a compromise bill that they think can pass but that might disappoint activists. In such cases, the president’s ability to convey the party position might make it easier to sell a deal to constituents.
One other possibility? Biden will be criticized if nothing passes regardless of what he does, but if something does pass he’ll want to take credit — and a high-profile speech before Congress votes probably deflects some critics who might question whether he had anything to do with it. That’s a pretty marginal reason for a speech, but it might seem important to those in the White House who have to deal with such things.
Which gets to one very good reason to do these speeches: There’s often little or no downside. While presidential time (and staff support) is not exactly an infinite resource, giving this speech likely involved only minor trade-offs. It’s true that high-profile presidential involvement on such issues can be polarizing, but Biden was going to be pushing for his proposed measures one way or another, and it’s unlikely that this speech would trigger polarization on the issue that wouldn’t have happened otherwise.
So even if the possible benefits are marginal at best, there’s no real reason not to go ahead with it.

Sorry, We Are Not Essential to Confronting Extremism
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/June 05/2022
Saudi-US relations are returning to their normal path. We are currently hearing a different American discourse, praising the Saudi role. We are also seeing confused US media coverage; but this is their story… It is another story that needs a separate article.
However, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made some interesting remarks few days ago, when he spoke about the vitality of Saudi-American relations, saying that the Kingdom “is an important partner for the United States, and has great roles in achieving stability and peace” in the region and the world.
He added: “Saudi Arabia is a critical partner for us in dealing with extremism in the region, and with the challenges posed by Iran,” relying on an effective Saudi role in activating the peace process. Here we must stop at the phrase that “Saudi Arabia is a crucial partner for us in dealing with extremism in the region,” which was translated either with extremism or with fanaticism, depending on the direction of some media outlets in the region.
Someone might say: What is wrong with that?
In fact, we must realize that words have meanings and connotations that should not be tolerated because they are easy to distort, and perpetuate a stereotype. Saudi Arabia is not only important for fighting extremism or fanaticism. The issue is more complex.
Saudi Arabia’s role is vital to the consolidation of tolerance throughout the world, not just the region, especially since the Kingdom, specifically under the reign of King Salman bin Abdulaziz, and the supervision of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has undertaken the largest reform in the region.
Saudi Arabia today is the Arab country that has embarked on social, religious, intellectual, and economic reforms. The country has seen the most prominent and largest fight against corruption. Its Crown Prince has said that he will crush terrorism and will not waste decades of time as before.
When we say that the story is more complicated, it is because the “expression” that Saudi Arabia is important for combating extremism emerged after the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, and was used as an argument to justify Washington’s relationship with Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia has fought extremism, but has now reached a more developed phase. Thus, we must no longer accept such apologetic statement because Saudi Arabia’s real role today is establishing and spreading tolerance. It is this expression that Saudi diplomacy and media must consolidate, repeat and explain, and never relinquish.
Saudi-American relations are important. It’s normal that they regain their regular course, not because Saudi Arabia has made a mistake, but because others realized their own fault and their political unrealism. These relationships are very important, and they should always be clear. While the United States is said to be a reliable security ally for Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom also constitutes a trustworthy partner for the United States for the stability of energy prices. Relations are also vital to the stability of the region, and to confronting Iranian harm, which would not have continued without Western American lenience. Moreover, the Kingdom today is a model of reform to be followed.
Therefore, we are not essential to confronting extremism, but rather to consolidating and spreading tolerance. We must constantly repeat this because the difference between the two sentences is huge.

Iran: Towards a Summer of Discontent
Amir Taheri/ Asharq al-Awsat/June 05/ 2022
The latest protests, however, appear to be different in a number of ways. First, the main theme, although not the immediately acknowledged one, is regime change.
So far such a move had been stalled because the regime's many opponents regarded it as their second choice, each being its own first choice. That meant that each group would rather see the present regime remain in place to prevent a rival opposition group from replacing it.
Whether the protests continue or where they will end up it is too early to tell. But one thing is clear: something has snapped between the Khomeinist regime and many Iranians, producing a gap that can no longer be bridged with the usual slogans.
For the past two weeks in Iran a large number of people, perhaps hundreds of thousands, have been protesting in more than 100 cities to vent their anger against a system that they consider to be corrupt, incompetent and oppressive. The movement was triggered by the collapse of a tall building in Abadan, which claimed dozens of lives. For the first time, some protesters there started chanting "Down with Khamenei", targeting Iran's "Supreme Guide". Pictured: The collapsed building in Abadan, on May 23, 2022.
For the past two weeks a large number of Iranians, perhaps hundreds of thousands, have been taking part in protest marches in more than 100 cities across Iran to vent their anger against a system that they consider to be corrupt, incompetent and oppressive.
At the same time, the government is facing the threat of massive bread shortages later this year amid reports that wheat stocks have fallen to a record low while talks to purchase from Russia 6.2 million tons of wheat, more than half of Iran's annual consumption, seem to have stalled.
There is other bad news for Iran's government as oil exports, which had been picking up thanks to the Biden administration's decision to ignore sanctions imposed by Trump, are showing a downturn partly because of competition from Russia, which is offering significant discounts to capture a larger part of Iran's market share in Asia. Also bad news is the deadlock at the Vienna talks to revive the so-called "nuclear deal" and let the Islamic Republic off the hook of some sanctions.
So, what should we expect from the Islamic Republic as it faced the perfect storm in what could become a summer of discontent?
This is not the first time that Iranians try to show their anger at the state of their country by protest marches. In fact, some, not to say many, Iranians have been doing so since he very first weeks of rule by Khomeinist clerics in 1979.
In the past decade, Iran has witnessed at least three major nationwide uprisings that shook the regime but led to no major change of direction. In every case, the regime succeeded in reasserting its control with a mixture of bribes and brutality, while taking advantage of the fact that the protests did not produce a coherent opposition leadership at the national level.
So, why should this time be different?
Although it is still too early to tell, some facts may point to that direction.
The first is that previous uprisings were limited in their overall political scope.
Some, like the March 1979 mass demonstration, were related to single issues, like protests against enforced hijab or a crackdown against particular political groups, as was the case in 1981 and 1982.
Other protests were related to sectional interests such as the losses suffered by small shareholders in Tehran's stock exchange and investments in bogus companies.
Other single issues that prompted protests included transport and sugar-cane workers fighting for better wages and working conditions, and teachers demanding greater academic freedom and a fairer salary scale.
Other protests were related to single political issues, such as the Green Movement against alleged election fraud that gave Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his second presidential term.
Despite their different motivations and themes, all those protests had one feature in common: none was aimed at regime change and all could be contained within the present system.
The latest protests, however, appear to be different in a number of ways.
First, the main theme, although not the immediately acknowledged one, is regime change.
The movement was triggered by the collapse of a tall building, Metropole Tower, in the southern oil city of Abadan, which claimed dozens of lives. Initially, the tragedy was blamed on an unscrupulous local cowboy builder looking for quick profit.
Within days, however, a leaflet circulated in Abadan posed a number of questions: "Who gave him the building permit? The local mayor? But who appointed the mayor? The Interior Minister? But who appointed the Interior Minister?" The leaflet ended with the Persian proverb: The fish rots from the head, not from the tail!
For the first time, some protesters there started chanting "Down with Khamenei", targeting Iran's "Supreme Guide". He fueled popular anger by refusing even to refer to the tragedy for several days before asking his office to issue an insipid note of solidarity with the victims. This prompted further anti-regime slogans such as "the Islamic Republic should be dissolved" and "Sayyed Ali [Khamenei], leave the country!"
Unlike previous times, Khamenei missed the opportunity to pretend to side with protesters in blaming unidentified officials for not being "Islamic" enough.
Another difference this time was that many protesters, perhaps even a majority, represented a wide spectrum of opinion.
In some cities, at least 10 or 12 we could check with some reliability, slogans such as "Reza Shah, Bless Your soul!" hinted at a surge of nostalgia about Iran's former monarchy. But, unlike some previous occasions, even those protesters who felt no nostalgia about the old monarchy did not challenge those slogans let alone part ways with demonstrators who chanted them.
This is important because it may indicate that the regime cannot work its way out of a tight corner by inviting Iranians to continue fighting the fallen monarchy rather than the incumbent despotism.
And that may signal an even more important development: a move towards national consensus on the need for a change of direction, if not straightforward regime change.
So far, such a move had been stalled because the regime's many opponents regarded it as their second choice, each being its own first choice. That meant that each group would rather see the present regime remain in place to prevent a rival opposition group from replacing it.
It is too early to say whether there has been a major change in that mindset. But from what one could gather based on incomplete information, Iran's disparate opposition groups seem to be moving towards some at least tactical cohesion.
A potentially more important new feature is the support shown by a part of the Shiite clerical establishment in the city of Qom, which had tried to hide behind the quietest tradition while maintaining courteous relations with the ruling clergy and its military-security support-base.
The protests have also opened what could become a breach within the Khomeinist establishment with some members of the Islamic Majlis (the ersatz parliament), a number of state-funded celebrities and "Islamic" intellectuals, masters of equivocation, mumbling expressions of support for protesters calling for regime change. Whether the protests continue or where they will end up it is too early to tell. But one thing is clear: something has snapped between the Khomeinist regime and many Iranians, producing a gap that can no longer be bridged with the usual slogans.
As we move towards a summer of discontent, the Islamic Republic is domestically in its weakest position in years. Is Iran moving towards a crossroads? We have to wait and see.
Amir Taheri was the executive editor-in-chief of the daily Kayhan in Iran from 1972 to 1979. He has worked at or written for innumerable publications, published eleven books, and has been a columnist for Asharq Al-Awsat since 1987.

NATO Should NOT Pay Ransom to Turkey; Instead, Should Amend Rules to Expel It
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/June 05/2022
"Turkey is a member of NATO, but under Mr. Erdoğan, it no longer subscribes to the values that underpin this great alliance. Article 13 of the NATO charter provides a mechanism for members to withdraw. Perhaps it is time to amend Article 13 to establish a procedure for the expulsion of a member nation." — Former US Senator Joe Lieberman and Mark D. Wallace, Wall Street Journal, May 18, 2022.
"[G]iving in to Ankara's demands amounts to letting an autocrat design the security architecture of Europe and shape the future of the Western system." — Cengiz Çandar, journalist, Al-Monitor, May 24, 2022.
With its $8,000 per capita GDP, Erdoğan's ailing Turkey is not more powerful than the other 29 NATO allies combined. NATO's political leaders must stop acting as if it is.
In a historic move, Sweden and Finland recently submitted their written applications to join NATO but Turkey's Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (pictured), is threatening to use his country's veto power to block the Nordic nations coming under the Western security umbrella. This is putting NATO's renewed credibility at stake, presumably to the delight of NATO's nemesis, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Just when, after years of idling around, NATO appears to be gaining some strategic prominence following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the only Muslim member of the alliance is holding 29 other members as hostage, blocking the most critical move in its history. Surrendering to an Islamist's well-known oriental bargaining tactics will mean the demise of the alliance.
In a historic move, Sweden and Finland recently submitted their written applications to join NATO but Turkey's Islamist strongman, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is threatening to use his country's veto power to block the Nordic nations coming under the Western security umbrella. This is putting NATO's renewed credibility at stake, presumably to the delight of NATO's nemesis, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
On May 25, senior Swedish and Finnish delegations arrived in Ankara to meet with Erdoğan's spokesman, Ibrahim Kalın, and deputy foreign minister Sedat Önal, with a mission to overcome Turkey's objections. Every single diplomat in the Turkish capital knew that the mission would fail before it even took off.
"We stated that this procedure [Sweden and Finland joining NATO] would not be possible until Turkey's security concerns were addressed," Kalın told the media after the meeting. But what are Turkey's security concerns, and why are they related to two small European Union nations, one with a 1,300 km (810 mile) border with Russia?
Officially speaking, Turkey demands "written agreement" from Finland and Sweden for steps to end their "support for terrorism" -- meaning their alleged logistical and political support for the PKK Kurdish insurgents and their YPG branch in Syria. It accuses the two countries of harboring members of the "Gülen movement," which Ankara alleges was behind a failed military coup attempt in 2016. Furthermore, Ankara demands that Sweden and Finland end the ban on exporting weapons to Turkey, which they imposed after Turkey's military incursion into northeast Syria in 2019.
Ankara said that it has requested the extradition of Kurdish fighters and other suspects since 2017 but has not received a positive response from Stockholm. The Turkish government claimed that Sweden has decided to provide $376 million to support Kurdish fighters in 2023 and that it has provided them with military equipment, including anti-tank weapons and drones. Sweden denies these accusations.
Erdoğan seems to think that he has found a golden opportunity to blackmail the entire Western alliance, and get the maximum out of a list of official and unofficial demands. Erdoğan also seems to be hoping to reset Turkey's badly strained ties with the West, most notably with the U.S. He appears to want a new, warm political welcome back into the Western world, along with a narrative to Turkey's anti-Western masses of how he brought the evil West to its knees -- always a sure vote-catcher in xenophobic Turkey. He badly needs that Western appeasement for his campaign for re-election in June 2023. Turkey's economy, with an annual inflation rate of 70%, is in doldrums to put it mildly.
What else does Erdoğan want? He will start negotiating a return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program, from which Turkey was expelled after it acquired the Russian-made S-400 surface-to-air defense system. If re-joining the multinational program to manufacture the world's most advanced fighter jet is not possible, Erdoğan will bargain for U.S. approval to buy a batch of 40 F-16 Block 70 aircraft and upgrade kits for 80 more jets.
Erdoğan's foreign policy team will make the process of entering NATO as hard as possible for Sweden and Finland. "It is not an easy process," a senior Turkish official told Reuters adding that Sweden and Finland must take "difficult" steps to win Ankara's support. "Further negotiations will continue. But a date doesn't seem very close."
All 29 other NATO allies want to seal Sweden and Finland's membership before the NATO Summit in Madrid on June 29-30. After a meeting in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said it was extremely important that results be achieved before the Madrid summit. Raising the stakes in this poker game, however, Turkish officials downplayed prospects of reaching an agreement before the summit.
Unlike independent observers, some Western leaders are downplaying the "Turkish problem." NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, for instance, wrote on Twitter that he and Erdoğan "agree that the security concerns of all Allies must be taken into account and talks need to continue to find a solution."
When asked if he could assuage Turkish concerns, U.S. President Joe Biden said, "I'm not going to Turkey, but I think we're going to be OK."
Echoing similar optimism, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:
"We're confident that, at the end of the day, Finland and Sweden will have an effective and efficient accession process, that Turkey's concerns can be addressed. We feel very good about where this will track to."
Erdoğan's blackmailing tactics risk fueling a debate within NATO about Turkey's fitness to remain an ally. "Does Erdoğan's Turkey Belong in NATO?" asked former US Senator Joe Lieberman and Mark D. Wallace, a U.S. Ambassador to the UN for Management and Reform, in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. They noted that unlike Finland and Sweden, Turkey would not meet NATO's democracy requirements if it were applying for membership today. According to Lieberman and Wallace:
"Turkey is a member of NATO, but under Mr. Erdoğan, it no longer subscribes to the values that underpin this great alliance. Article 13 of the NATO charter provides a mechanism for members to withdraw. Perhaps it is time to amend Article 13 to establish a procedure for the expulsion of a member nation."
Adding to that, Turkish journalist and analyst Cengiz Candar cautioned:
"Giving in to Ankara's demands amounts to letting an autocrat design the security architecture of Europe and shape the future of the Western system."
With its $8,000 per capita GDP, Erdoğan's ailing Turkey is not more powerful than the other 29 NATO allies combined. NATO's political leaders must stop acting as if it is.