English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For June 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.june02.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Go into all the world and proclaim the good news to the whole creation. The one who believes and is baptized will be saved; but the one who does not believe will be condemned.
Mark 16/15-20: “‘Go into all the world and proclaim the good news to the whole creation. The one who believes and is baptized will be saved; but the one who does not believe will be condemned. And these signs will accompany those who believe: by using my name they will cast out demons; they will speak in new tongues; they will pick up snakes in their hands, and if they drink any deadly thing, it will not hurt them; they will lay their hands on the sick, and they will recover.’ So then the Lord Jesus, after he had spoken to them, was taken up into heaven and sat down at the right hand of God. And they went out and proclaimed the good news everywhere, while the Lord worked with them and confirmed the message by the signs that accompanied it.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 01-02/2022
The Greatest Fraud: “The Syrian entered to protect the Christians”/Bachir Gemayel Academy/1st of June, 1976
World Bank extends CPF period, says Lebanon has lost precious time
Parliament to elect joint committees members next week
Bou Saab denies Speaker-Deputy Speaker deal with Amal
Jumblat calls for joint 'anti-March 8 plan' after Skaff's defeat
FPM MP says Jumblat switched from 'defiant' to 'non-defiant' in Speaker, Deputy Speaker vote
Report: LF urges for unifying 'sovereign forces' on new PM name
Army halts fight between FPM, LF supportes at LU Faculty of Law
Al-Sayyed to Berri: You will fall 'even if you were a prophet'
‘Major Confrontation’ with Hezbollah Ahead in Lebanon, Says Geagea
Lebanon Has an Opposition Movement Again/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Foreign Policy/June 01/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 01-02/2022
Joint Israeli-Cypriot Drills Simulate Attack on Hezbollah
Iran Accuses Israel of Interfering in IAEA Report
Israel’s Bennett Releases Documents Iran Stole from UN Watchdog to Evade Nuclear Probes
Israel Simulates Long-Range Air Strikes over Mediterranean
Palestinian woman with knife killed after approaching Israel soldier
Kremlin Says It Can Re-route Oil Exports to Minimize Losses from EU Embargo
Italy Imports More Russian Oil despite Impending Embargo
Kadhimi: Scourge of Drugs Destroying Iraq’s Social Fabric
Rocket Attack in Opposition-Held Syrian Town Kills at Least 3
Palestinian Woman with Knife Killed after Approaching Israeli Soldier
Grundberg in Muscat to Pressure Houthis to End Taiz Siege, Open Roads
HRW: Russia’s Wagner Group Set Landmines in Libya
EU Urges All Sudanese Parties to Engage Actively, Constructively in Dialogue Efforts

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 01-02/2022
Iran Not Waiting for Nuclear Weapons to Destabilize the Middle East/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./June 01/2022
Don’t Let Iran Humiliate the IAEA Again/Jacob Nagel and Richard Goldberg/ The Dispatch/June 01/2022
Why Is Israeli-Palestinian Violence Returning to Jenin?/Shany Mor and Joe Truzman/The National Interest/June 01/2022
On the Iranian Understanding of National Borders and their Stability: The Worst Form of Conservatism/Hazem Saghieh/ Asharq Al-Awsat/June 01/2022
'With Us or Against Us?'/Tariq Al-Homayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat/June 01/2022
I Thought Putin Invaded Only Ukraine. I Was Wrong./Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/June 01/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on June 01-02/2022
The Greatest Fraud: “The Syrian entered to protect the Christians”
Bachir Gemayel Academy/1st of June, 1976
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/109072/%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b0%d8%a7-%d8%ad%d8%b5%d9%84-%d9%81%d9%8a-01-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-1976-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d9%8a%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%af%d8%ae%d9%84-%d9%84/
To better understand the Syrian intervention in 1976, we need to keep in mind the old Syrian dream, known as “Greater Syria”, the obsession of the Syrian presidency. It was taught in Syrian schools that Lebanon belongs to the Syrian Republic, even after Lebanon’s independence. The Syrian involvement was not only limited to military interventions but also included political pressure, individual threats, and political assassinations.
The declared reasons behind the intervention were stated by Hafeez el Assad himself in his famous speech about the necessity of protecting the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and the National Movement, from the Kataeb militants who were winning on all fronts. It is worth noting that the Syrians were already present in Lebanon under الصاعقة and جيش التحرير الفلسطيني . Additionally, thousands of weapons and ammunitions were delivered from Syria to the PLO and National Movement.  Furthermore, fearing the independent policies from Syria that the PLO and National Movement were taking and the developing Christian-Israeli relationship, Syria needed to take swift control over Lebanon. Thus, controlling both the Christians and the PLO, to be able to use them as a negotiating card with US and Israel at the right time. The 1976 Syrian intrusion was well orchestrated. A secret deal was made between Hafeez Al-Assad and the Israeli Deputy Prime minister Yigal Allon, via a letter sent by Allon to Al-Assad, through the United States-Secretary of State Joseph Sisco (equivalent to Minister of Foreign Affairs). The deal stated that the Syrian Army cannot occupy the heartland of Christians and should not use any military air force, only artillery. This was well expressed by the US Envoy Dean Brown in a meeting with the Lebanese Front, who said: “Syrians of 1976 are like the Marines of 1958”.  For the record, following this intrusion, Bachir Gemayel called for a general strike. He knew the true intentions behind Syria’s invasion, since it was led by a ruthless dictator willing to drain Lebanon’s resources and take control over its territory. In other words, Bachir clearly understood the old Syrian dream of occupying Lebanon. His fears were also met by Kamal Jumblatt who was also aware of this incoming threat. As a result, he requested a secret meeting with Bachir on the following day. During this meeting, Jumblatt said: “The Syrians are here to occupy Lebanon and kill anyone who opposes them”.

World Bank extends CPF period, says Lebanon has lost precious time
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The World Bank has extended its Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with Lebanon by one additional year "to advance urgently needed socioeconomic recovery programs targeting the poor and most vulnerable and support urgently needed macroeconomic and structural reforms." In a statement, the world Bank said it has restructured and reprogramed its portfolio by cancelling underperforming projects and proactively allocating resources to newly identified priorities through a response focused on relief, recovery, and resilience.
“Despite early warnings, Lebanon has lost precious time and numerous opportunities to adopt a path to reform its economic and financial system. The cost of inaction is colossal not only on daily lives of citizens, but also on the future of the Lebanese people,” said Saroj Kumar Jha, World Bank Mashreq Regional Director. “Two years and a half into the crisis, Lebanon has yet to embark on a comprehensive reform and recovery program to stop the country from further sinking. Continued deliberate delay in addressing drivers of the crisis represents a threat not only at the socio-economic level but also a risk of a systemic failing of state institutions and pressure on an already fragile social peace,” Kumar Jha added.

Parliament to elect joint committees members next week
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called Wednesday for a Parliament session on Tuesday to elect the joint committees' members. Berri had been re-elected as parliament speaker Tuesday for a seventh consecutive term, cementing his reputation as an immovable centerpiece of the country's political landscape. The election of MP Elias Bou Saab as a Deputy Speaker and the election of the parliament’s two secretaries followed the election of Berri. Intense political horse-trading is expected in the coming months, as observers have warned of protracted deadlocks during consultations to name a new prime minister and in the run-up to an election later this year to replace President Michel Aoun.

Bou Saab denies Speaker-Deputy Speaker deal with Amal
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Newly elected Deputy Speaker MP Elias Bou Saab denied Wednesday any deal between the Free Patriotic Movement and Amal. Bou Saab said that the equal number of votes for him and for Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri does not mean there is a deal. "The deal is a figment of the imagination of the instigators," Bou Saab added. Media reports had said that Bassil's bloc would vote for Berri in return for Amal's votes for Bou Saab. Other reports said that at least four members of Bassil's bloc would vote for Berri. "I was expecting 64 votes," Bou Saab said, adding that his new post is very important as the Deputy Speaker will head the joint committees where laws are made. Bou Saab had won with 65 votes in a second round against PSP-backed MP Ghassan Skaff. Meanwhile al-Akhbar newspaper said that Bou Saab should have won from the first round, in which he had garnered 64 votes. It claimed, based on detailed historical parliamentary events and legal documents, that blank votes and spoiled votes should not be counted in the majority count, thus the majority should have been 57 out of 113 votes.

Jumblat calls for joint 'anti-March 8 plan' after Skaff's defeat
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat said Wednesday that it might be better to frame a joint plan to confront the March 8 Alliance, after the PSP-backed MP failed to win the deputy parliament speaker post. MP Ghassan Skaff lost to MP Elias Bou Saab of the Free Patriotic Movement on Tuesday. Bou Saab won with 65 votes in a second round of voting and Skaff garnered 60 votes, in what Jumblat called "a defeat of the new majority." "After yesterday's defeat in electing a deputy speaker as a result of poor coordination, it would be better to frame a joint program that transcends minor disagreements in order to confront the Syrian-Iranian alliance," Jumblat said. He added that the March 8 Alliance will "avenge its defeat in the parliamentary elections by all means" and "will not have mercy on anyone."

FPM MP says Jumblat switched from 'defiant' to 'non-defiant' in Speaker, Deputy Speaker vote
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement MP Cesar Abi Khalil slammed Wednesday Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat for switching in ten minutes from "defiant" to "non-defiant." Abi Khalil questioned how Jumblat voted for Amal's Speaker, then against FPM MP Elias Bou Saab as Deputy Speaker. "Can he explain to us how did he take the side of Amal and Hizbullah during the Speaker's election, then the side of the other blocs during the election of the Deputy Speaker," he asked. Jumblat had suggested earlier today to frame a joint plan "to confront the March 8 Alliance," after the PSP-backed MP Ghassan Skaff failed to win the Deputy Parliament Speaker post.

Report: LF urges for unifying 'sovereign forces' on new PM name
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
There will be no delay in setting a date for the binding parliamentary consultations, al-Liwaa newspaper reported Wednesday. The daily said it has learned from sources that the consultations will follow the smooth juncture of the Parliament's Speaker and Deputy Speaker election on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Lebanese Forces sources told Asharq al-Awsat newspaper that more efforts should be made to unify the "sovereign and reformist forces" on a new Prime Minister name according to the new balances. The sources ruled out the idea of activating the current government. For his part, former-Minister and constitutional expert Ziad Baroud said that legally the current government can not be activated. "It is automatically dismissed and is only a caretaker government," Baroud explained. "In order to keep it, it must be re-appointed and it must re-win the Parliament confidence," the ex-minister added. Intense political horse-trading is expected in the coming months, as observers have warned of protracted deadlocks during consultations to name a new prime minister and in the run-up to an election later this year to replace President Michel Aoun.

Army halts fight between FPM, LF supportes at LU Faculty of Law
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
A fight broke out Wednesday between supporters of the Free Patriotic Movement and supporters of the Lebanese forces at the Lebanese University. The Lebanese army intervened to stop the fight that had started yesterday between the students over displaying portraits of certain politicians. The fight took place on the campus of the second branch of the Faculty of Law and Political Sciences. Three students were arrested, while others managed to run away.

Al-Sayyed to Berri: You will fall 'even if you were a prophet'
Naharnet/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
MP Jamil al-Sayyed lashed out Wednesday at Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, saying that Berri's "thug" supporters reflect an image of Berri's morals. "I have survived wars, detention and assassination attempts, yet I have not changed, I stayed loyal to myself," al-Sayyed said. "If your supporters fall, you will fall with them even if you were a prophet," al-Sayyed added. Berri's supporters are known for a slogan that says that Berri would have almost been a Nabi (prophet in Arabic) if it weren't for the h in his first name Nabih. On Tuesday, al-Sayyed, who was elected MP after running on an Amal and Hizbullah list but who also is an old critic of Berri, asked the Speaker to remove his "thug" supporters from the streets outside his home. "If you think you are frightening us, we have seen many people like you and like your thugs," he added.

‘Major Confrontation’ with Hezbollah Ahead in Lebanon, Says Geagea
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The Lebanese Forces party will veto as prime minister anyone aligned with the armed Shiite Hezbollah party and stick to its boycott of government if a new consensus cabinet is formed, the party's leader said on Wednesday. Lebanon is in the throes of one of the world's worst economic meltdowns, according to the World Bank, with the local lira losing 90% of its value since 2019. Analysts have warned that the divisions in parliament will likely delay consensus on reform laws needed to drag Lebanon out of crisis. They could also create a vacuum in top leadership positions. While the LF and independent newcomers gained more seats in last month's elections, they still failed to prevent Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri from securing a seventh term as speaker in parliament's first session on Tuesday. "If it's a government that includes everyone as usual, of course we won't approve and we won't take part," LF party chief Samir Geagea told Reuters. "...They (Hezbollah) shouldn't celebrate too much," he said, adding that the splits in parliament would lead to a "major confrontation" between Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies on one side and the LF on the other. Tuesday's session was the first since the new parliament was elected on May 15, in the first vote since Lebanon's economic collapse and the Beirut port explosion of 2020 that killed more than 215 people. The LF was founded as an armed movement during Lebanon's 1975-1990 civil war but officially laid down its arms after the conflict. It has taken part in both parliament and cabinet but has opted out of the latter since 2019, when widespread anti-government protests broke out in Beirut. Independent lawmakers have balked at the LF's roles in the war and in the political establishment more recently, but Geagea said newcomer MPs would have little influence if they did not align with his party. "We all need one another to be able to go through the process of change and recovery that is required," he said. Lebanon's system of government now requires President Michel Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah and rival of the LF, to consult with lawmakers on their choice for prime minister. Geagea declined to say whether the LF would support a fresh term for current premier and frontrunner Najib Mikati or if his party would back a different name. The new cabinet will only last a few months, as parliament is set to elect a successor to Aoun, whose presidential term ends on Oct. 31. The next president would then name a new premier. Aoun came to power as president in 2016 with the LF's backing after decades of intense rivalry between the two. But Geagea said his party would also veto any presidential nominee backed by Hezbollah this time.

Lebanon Has an Opposition Movement Again
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Foreign Policy/June 01/2022
A new coalition could check—or even dislodge—Hezbollah and its iron grip.
Lebanon has become a failed state and a global source of narcotics, terrorism, and, once again, a growing number of refugees. Washington, stung by its failure to spread democracy in the Middle East and tiptoeing around everything connected to Iran, has limited its Lebanon policy to crisis management. But Lebanon’s parliamentary elections on May 15 saw the first stirrings of a potential coalition capable of checking—and perhaps eventually dislodging—Hezbollah and its iron grip over the country. Hezbollah and its allies lost their parliamentary majority and now face the biggest opposition since 2009—a loose coalition of the Lebanese Forces party and various independents with as many as 60 out of a total 128 seats.
Although the reconstituted legislature reelected a Hezbollah ally, Amal party leader Nabih Berri, as speaker of parliament on Tuesday, it did so with only the slimmest of majorities—65 out 128 votes, compared to 98 in 2018. Berri’s tally would not have been possible without votes controlled by Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, who played kingmaker. Free Patriotic Movement leader Elias Bou Saab, a Christian ally of Hezbollah, also won 65 votes for deputy speaker. But his contender, independent Ghassan Skaf, picked up 60 votes, showing the size of a potential opposition coalition. At the core of this bloc is the Lebanese Forces, a former Christian militia-turned-political party whose 20 seats put it ahead of Hezbollah’s 13.
While Jumblatt has been loosely aligned with Hezbollah in recent years, the right kind of pressure and incentives could still throw a wrench into Hezbollah’s plans to control the Lebanese government. That’s because Lebanon’s economic collapse is giving Hezbollah’s opponents a new sense of urgency—even after losing the election. The anti-Hezbollah bloc has called on the Shiite party’s extraconstitutional militia, roughly 30,000 fighters closely allied with Iran, to disband—just as the Lebanese Forces did when it surrendered its arms at the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1991. Since disbanding its military wing, the Lebanese Forces have remained a highly organized and potent political movement, demonstrating that a political party without a militia attached can succeed in Lebanese politics.
Opposition is galvanizing outside politics as well. Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, the leader of the Maronite Church, blames Hezbollah’s militia for undermining stability, repelling foreign investments, and killing economic growth. The way out of Lebanon’s crisis, Rahi argues, is Hezbollah’s disarmament and “regional neutrality,” which entails cutting loose from the influence of Syria and Iran, as well as reviving the 1949 United Nations truce between Lebanon and Israel.
After 1949, the Lebanese economy expanded at astounding rates, with GDP growth averaging 6 percent a year with minimal inflation for much of the late 1960s and early 1970s. Lebanon’s long descent into failed-state status began in 1969, when it invited Palestinian militants to relocate there from Jordan, allowed them to start attacking Israel, and invited reprisals. After Israel finally invaded Lebanon to eject the Palestinians in 1982, Hezbollah inherited the resistance mantle and has kept Lebanon on a war footing ever since, inhibiting economic growth and forcing the state to incur ever higher debts. When Lebanese investors and citizens ran out of money to lend to their state, Beirut defaulted, sending the economy and national currency into free fall.
International organizations conditioned financial help on reform, but Hezbollah’s political allies—protected by its militia—have blocked reform, fearing it will dry out the corrupt money flows to which they’ve grown accustomed. In return, those allies approve keeping Hezbollah in arms. Rahi was one of the first to call public attention to this symbiosis: Reform and economic growth won’t happen without disarming Hezbollah first. With his status as an untouchable religious leader, Rahi has become the voice of the movement demanding Hezbollah’s disarmament.
The right kind of pressure and incentives could still throw a wrench into Hezbollah’s plans to control the Lebanese government.
In his post-election speech, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged that no party or coalition won a majority. But with its ability to intimidate rivals, Hezbollah has the advantage. At the very least, the party (and its militia) can throw a tantrum and paralyze the state until it gets what it wants. Even an outright anti-Hezbollah parliamentary majority in 2005 and 2009 did not manage to oust the party from power.
Forcefully disarming Hezbollah is a bloody endeavor no one is willing to undertake. But the group has an Achilles’ heel: It pretends that its extralegal armed forces have the approval of the elected cabinet. Yet the cabinet is dominated by Hezbollah loyalists.
Hezbollah mimics the tactics of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, whose troops once occupied Lebanon. Whenever the world asked Assad to withdraw, he responded that his army was there at the request from Lebanon’s elected government—a puppet authority that answered to Damascus. During the Syrian occupation, then-Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir demanded a Syrian withdrawal, a call that snowballed into an unprecedented anti-Syrian demonstration on March 14, 2005. The result was the Cedar Revolution, spearheaded by a coalition of anti-Syrian parties. Assad lost his alibi, and, that April, his troops completed their withdrawal.
Realizing that the anti-Syria coalition could eventually turn against Hezbollah as well, the party peeled away the leader of one of the coalition parties, Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun, by promising him the presidency of Lebanon, which Aoun eventually claimed in 2016.
The key to disarming Hezbollah is to rebuild the broad coalition that ejected Syrian forces 17 years ago but failed to force the pro-Iranian militia to surrender its arsenal to the national army as the Christian militia did.
The May 15 elections showed that Lebanese voters have soured on Aoun, whose Free Patriotic Movement-led Christian bloc has stood as the main obstacle to a united anti-Hezbollah front. Aoun’s son-in-law and aspiring successor Gebran Bassil saw his faction in parliament shrink from 23 to 18 seats. Even in Hezbollah’s electoral stronghold, the South III district bordering Israel, the militia’s opponents won two seats, despite harassment and intimidation.
This year’s elections also showed that Lebanon’s Christians, Druze, Sunni, and a considerable number of Shiite voters are fed up with the dual afflictions of corruption and Hezbollah. Iran birthed the Shiite militant group in the 1980s and has provided it with weapons and extensive financial support ever since. The problem for Lebanon is that Tehran and its Lebanese proxies prioritize militancy over what the country needs most: reform, civil liberties, and recovery from today’s deep economic crisis.
Hezbollah might well deploy violence against those who threaten its dominant position—in the same way Iranian-backed militias in Iraq have attacked opponents since taking a beating in elections last October. The people of Lebanon will have to decide if they are prepared to face that risk.
Washington, for its part, should endorse Rahi’s vision for national sovereignty and comprehensive reform and consider inviting him to the White House, just as then-U.S. President George W. Bush received Rahi’s predecessor Sfeir. The United States is already pouring hundreds of millions of dollars of humanitarian aid into Lebanon. But the need will only grow unless Washington sides firmly with the advocates of sovereignty and reform.
*Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former managing editor at the Daily Star. Twitter: @hahussain. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/31/lebanon-election-hezbollah-opposition/

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on June 01-02/2022
Joint Israeli-Cypriot Drills Simulate Attack on Hezbollah
Tel Aviv Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The Israeli army announced on Monday that it had kicked off in Cyprus the third and final part of its massive exercises, dubbed “Beyond the Horizon.”Military sources in Tel Aviv said that the latest training simulates a scenario of war operations against the Hezbollah party in Lebanon, including a ground invasion. An official statement by the Israeli army spokesman said the training was conducted in cooperation with the Cypriot army, to maintain and boost the capabilities of the army in simulating a variety of emergency scenarios. It added that cooperation between the two armies would contribute to “increasing regional stability and the ability to face common challenges.”The military said both conscript and reserve troops from the 98th Paratroopers Division, along with air force units and other special forces — such as the Shayetet 13 navy unit — would participate in the drills in Cyprus. The Israeli army added that the exercise, which is managed by the National Center for Field Training, “is unique and the first of its kind and an opportunity to adapt and simulate the scenario of combat in an unfamiliar area, and to implement military missions and activities at great distances, during emergency and sudden situations…”
Political sources reported that Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz contacted on Monday his Cypriot counterpart, Charalambos Petrides, to discuss the importance of the two armies’ combat readiness within the framework of bilateral strategic cooperation and for the sake of regional stability. The Beyond the Horizon maneuver is one of the largest military exercises conducted by Israel since its establishment. It simulates a multi-front war in the north and south, with a focus on the northern front that includes Lebanon, Syria and Iran. The exercise, which will end on Friday, is expected to witness the bombing of long-range targets, about 2,000 km from the borders of Israel, and takes into consideration the possibility of partnering with the US military.

Iran Accuses Israel of Interfering in IAEA Report
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Iran has accused its regional rival Israel of interfering in the International Atomic Energy Agency's report detailing its continued failure to provide satisfactory answers on the origin of uranium particles found at three undeclared sites. Iran has not credibly answered the UN nuclear watchdog's long-standing questions on the origin of uranium particles found at Marivan, Varamin and Turquzabad nuclear sites despite a fresh push for a breakthrough, the agency said in a report on Monday. It said its long-running efforts to get Iranian officials to explain the presence of nuclear material had failed to provide answers to its questions.
Iran and the IAEA agreed in March on an approach for resolving the issue of the sites, one of the remaining obstacles to reviving the 2015 deal. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi is due to “report his conclusions” to the watchdog's 35-nation Board of Governors meeting scheduled for next week. Iran said the report is “not fair.”“Unfortunately, this report does not reflect the reality of the negotiations between Iran and the IAEA,” Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s not a fair and balanced report,” he said, expecting this path to be corrected. “It is feared that the pressure exerted by the Zionist regime [Israel] and some other actors has caused the normal path of agency reports to change from technical to political,” Khatibzadeh warned. The comments came with talks deadlocked since March on reviving a 2015 nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers.
A separate quarterly IAEA report on Monday estimated Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium had grown to more than 18 times the limit laid down in Tehran's 2015 deal with world powers. The UN nuclear watchdog said in its latest report on Iran's nuclear program that it “estimated that, as of May 15, 2022, Iran’s total enriched stockpile was 3,809.3 kilograms.”The limit in the 2015 deal was set at 300 kg of a specific compound, the equivalent of 202.8 kg of uranium. The report also said that Tehran is continuing its enrichment of uranium to levels higher than the 3.67% limit in the deal. The stockpile of uranium enriched up to 20% is now estimated to be 238.4 kg, up 56.3 kg since the last report in March, while the amount enriched to 60% stands at 43.1 kg, an increase of 9.9 kg. Enrichment levels of around 90% are required for use in a nuclear weapon.

Israel’s Bennett Releases Documents Iran Stole from UN Watchdog to Evade Nuclear Probes
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett accused Iran on Tuesday of stealing internal UN nuclear watchdog reports under a plan to prepare ways of staving off scrutiny of its nuclear program. “Iran stole classified International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents ... and used that information to systematically evade nuclear probes,” Bennett said in a social media post that included a selection of the alleged stolen files, some of them translated into English. “How do we know? Because we got our hands on Iran’s deception plan.”A Bennett aide said the assertion referred to Israeli allegations in 2018 of what they said was a secret trove of documents seized in Iran and related to its nuclear projects. Tehran called that so-called “Atomic Archive” a fabrication. Bennett quoted an Iranian defense official as writing in the alleged documents that “sooner or later they (IAEA) will ask us, and we'll need to have a comprehensive cover story for them.” Neither Tehran nor the IAEA immediately responded to requests for comment about the allegations, which Reuters said appeared to be part of an Israeli campaign to dissuade big powers from renewing a 2015 Iranian nuclear deal in now-stalled Vienna negotiations. Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful. Israel, Washington and the IAEA have long made clear that they believe Iran had a coordinated nuclear weapons program until 2003. The IAEA spent more than a decade investigating Iran's past activities, and it is now again seeking answers from Iran on the origin of uranium particles found at three undeclared sites. Last week, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran secured access to secret IAEA reports almost two decades ago and circulated the documents among top officials who prepared cover stories and falsified a record to conceal suspected past work on nuclear weapons, it quoted Middle East intelligence officials and documents. One of these officials was then-defense minister Ali Shamkhani, who is currently the Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC). Separately, the United States and five other powers have pursued talks with Iran on renewing the 2015 deal that former US President Donald Trump abandoned, deeming it insufficient. Israel is not a party to those negotiations but has some sway over foreign powers. “We are saying: This is not a good deal, and there won't be a disaster if it's not signed,” Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid told Tel Aviv radio station 103 FM.

Israel Simulates Long-Range Air Strikes over Mediterranean
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The Israeli military said Wednesday that dozens of its aircraft conducted a drill simulating airstrikes on long-range targets, a thinly veiled reference to a possible attack on regional rival Iran. The army said the exercise took place a day earlier over the Mediterranean and “involved long-range flight, aerial refueling and striking distant targets.” It provided no additional information. The announcement came as negotiators representing world powers and Iran have held months of talks in a bid to hash out a new agreement to rein in Tehran's nuclear program, four years after a deal struck in 2015 collapsed after the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew, The Associated Press said. Israel considers Iran its greatest threat and was staunchly opposed to the 2015 JCPOA accords signed by Iran and world powers, saying it didn't have enough safeguards to keep Iran from developing a weapons capability or address other Iranian military threats in the region. It has said it opposes a return to a new nuclear agreement. Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed state in the Middle East, but has never publicly acknowledged having such weapons. Tuesday's air force drill took place as part of a larger, month-long military exercise, which included combat simulations in Cyprus earlier this week.

Palestinian woman with knife killed after approaching Israel soldier
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian woman after she approached a soldier with a knife in the southern West Bank, the army said Wednesday, with Palestinian officials pronouncing her dead. A statement from the army said the "attempted stabbing" took place near Al Aroub camp, north of the city of Hebron. "An assailant armed with a knife advanced toward an IDF soldier who was conducting routine security activity on Route 60. The soldiers responded with live fire," the army said. "No IDF injuries were reported."The Palestinian health ministry said the woman died from a bullet to her torso, identifying her as Ghofran Warasnah. The Palestinians' official news agency Wafa said she was 31. The Palestinian Prisoners Club said she was a journalist who had been imprisoned by Israel in the past. Nineteen people, mostly Israeli civilians -- including 18 inside Israel and a West Bank Jewish settler -- have been killed in attacks by Palestinians and Israeli Arabs since late March. Israeli security forces have responded with raids inside Israel and the West Bank, particularly in the flashpoint northern district of Jenin. Three Israeli Arab attackers and a police commando have died. Thirty-six Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank -- suspected militants but also non-combatants, including a journalist who was covering a raid in Jenin and bystanders.

Kremlin Says It Can Re-route Oil Exports to Minimize Losses from EU Embargo
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The Kremlin warned on Wednesday that the European Union's sanctions on Russian oil would hit the global energy market, but said Moscow could re-route exports to limit its own losses. EU leaders this week agreed an embargo on Russian crude oil imports that aims to halt 90% of Russia's oil sales into the 27-member bloc by year-end, Reuters reported. "These sanctions will have a negative impact on the entire continent - for Europeans, for us, and for the entire global energy market," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. More than a quarter of Europe's oil came from Russia in 2021, with the EU accounting for almost half of Russia's overall crude and petroleum product exports in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Energy prices have surged to multi-year highs since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, pushing inflation to its highest levels in a generation and sparking fears of a cost of living crisis in Europe and the United States. Moscow has already started re-routing supplies away from Europe following the imposition of sanctions, the Kremlin said. "This is a targeted, systemic action that will allow us the minimize the negative consequences," Peskov told reporters on Wednesday. India is among those who have cashed in on the disruption to Russian supplies, purchasing record amounts of Russian oil at a steep discount to market rates for benchmark crude.

Italy Imports More Russian Oil despite Impending Embargo
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Even as the European Union decided to reduce Russian crude oil imports by 90% by the end of the year, Italy has become the only country in Europe to increase them, an unintended consequence of EU sanctions against Russia. Meant to punish Russia for invading Ukraine, the EU oil embargo is now putting at risk one of Italy’s largest refineries, located in Sicily, which would deal an economic blow to the depressed region’s economy, The Associated Press said. Italy agreed with its EU partners to cut Russian crude imports by 2023, a move that Premier Mario Draghi called “a complete success,'' that ”just a couple of days ago wouldn't have been believable."But Rome also has to deal with the fate of the refinery in Sicily owned by Russia’s Lukoil. As a result of previous sanctions against Russia, ISAB Srl has paradoxically gone from processing 15% of Russian crude to 100%. That’s because banks have refused to take the risk of extending credit to Russia-controlled ISAB that would allow it to buy oil from non-Russian sources, even if not specifically barred from doing so, said Matteo Villa, an energy analyst at the ISPI think tank in Milan. Ships continue to arrive at the port-side refinery with crude oil from the Russian parent company. Italy in May received about 400,000 barrels of Russian oil a day in May, four times the pre-invasion levels, according to the Kpler commodity data company. Of that total, ISAB received 220,000 barrels a day from Russia. “Italy is the only country in Europe increasing oil imports,’’ Villa said, going from the sixth-largest importer of Russian oil to the the largest in the three months since the invasion.
The plant employs 3,500 people at three production sites, including a refinery, gasification and electricity cogeneration plant, in Sicily's Syracuse province, and risks closure if a solution isn’t found before the embargo kicks in. The plant and related activities generate half of the provincial gross domestic product and 8% of the region’s economic activity, processing one-fifth of Italy’s crude oil imports. The refinery’s future was already at risk in the longer term, due to Italy’s energy transition to more sustainable sources. The embargo has only increased the sense of urgency to find a solution. “The mood today is even worse than yesterday,’’ said Fiorenzo Amato, the secretary general of the Filctem Cgil union in Syracuse. “The industrial hub ... employs many people, giving families the chance to live.” Since learning of the embargo, refinery workers are growing more concerned about their future.
“It will be a disaster,” said Marco Candelargiu. “We hope they find a solution. You cannot destroy a province. The choice was made a long time ago to base the economy prevalently on the refinery.”Villa said one solution would be for Italy to temporarily nationalize the refinery, a move permitted for energy emergencies under Italy’s Constitution, but a week of discussions has yielded no agreement. As an Italian-owned refinery, ISAB would be able to get the necessary financing to purchase crude from other sources and keep operating while longer-term solutions are sought. “This is important for employment in Sicily, for the provisioning of gasoline and diesel to Italy and for our own political face-saving in Europe,’’ Villa said.

Kadhimi: Scourge of Drugs Destroying Iraq’s Social Fabric
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi slammed on Monday the scourge of drugs in Iraq. During a meeting with senior security leaders in Iraq on Monday, he said the phenomenon has for years raised deep popular and official concerns given its rapid spread in the country, especially in southern governorates. Addressing an expanded meeting of security chiefs, held at the headquarters of the Joint Operations Command in Baghdad, Kadhimi said: “The security services and armed forces have a shared responsibility to protect our country and society from drugs and uncontrolled weapons, which are major challenges that require more efforts.”He called on the Border Guard Command in the Ministry of Interior to strengthen measures in order to prevent drug smuggling, underlining the need to “eradicate this scourge that is destroying the social fabric.”Iraq’s southern border with Iran is a preferred route for drug trafficking to the rest of the provinces. The Iraqi authorities are still unable to deter drug smuggling gangs due to border chaos and the lack of adequately trained and equipped forces, according to some security sources. The Iraqi authorities have reiterated their intention to establish a “narcotics control agency” similar to the anti-terrorist agency that operates within the Iraqi security forces. Two weeks ago, Hakem al-Zamili, the first deputy speaker of Parliament, said that drugs “are no less dangerous than ISIS, and the community has begun to sense their threat.”On Sunday, the Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency announced the detention of six persons suspected of drug trafficking in the Najaf province. In a statement, the agency said that the confessions of a drug trafficker have led to the arrest of six other persons, “who are among the most prominent drug dealers in Najaf.”

Rocket Attack in Opposition-Held Syrian Town Kills at Least 3
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
A rocket struck a residential area in a northern Syrian town controlled by Turkey-backed opposition fighters on Wednesday, killing at least three people and wounding others, opposition activist said. Some activists said that the rocket was fired on Tal Abyad by the US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a claim that the group denied. The attack came hours after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the Turkish army will soon "clear" the northern Syrian towns of Manbij and Tal Rifaat of "terrorists,” referring to Syria’s Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or YPG. Erdogan has been speaking about a new incursion for weeks without saying when such an offensive would start. Turkey has launched four major operations in Syria since 2016, mainly targeting the YPG. Ankara claims its own outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, inside Turkey and the YPG in Syria are one and the same. The PKK is considered a terrorist organization in Turkey, Europe and the United States. It has led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984, and the conflict has killed tens of thousands of people. Baladi news, an activist collective, reported that three people were killed and 10 were wounded in Tal Abyad, while the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor, said four were killed and several others were wounded in the attack. The SDF issued a statement denying its fighters had fired any rocket toward Tal Abyad, which has been under control of Turkey-backed fighters since 2019, and said that an unknown drone fired the rocket.

Palestinian Woman with Knife Killed after Approaching Israeli Soldier
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
Israeli troops shot dead a Palestinian woman after she approached a soldier with a knife in the southern West Bank, the army said Wednesday, with Palestinian officials pronouncing her dead. A statement from the army said the "attempted stabbing" took place near Al Aroub camp, north of the city of Hebron, AFP reported. "A woman armed with a knife advanced toward an Israeli soldier who was conducting routine security activity on Route 60. The soldiers responded with live fire," the army said. "No Israeli army injuries were reported."The Palestinian health ministry said the woman died from a bullet to her torso, identifying her as Ghofran Warasnah. The Palestinians' official news agency Wafa said she was 31. Nineteen people, mostly Israeli civilians -- including 18 inside Israel and a West Bank Jewish settler -- have been killed in attacks by Palestinians and Israeli Arabs since late March. Israeli security forces have responded with raids inside Israel and the West Bank, particularly in the flashpoint northern district of Jenin. Three Israeli Arab attackers and a police commando have died. Thirty-six Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, including a journalist who was covering a raid in Jenin and bystanders.

Grundberg in Muscat to Pressure Houthis to End Taiz Siege, Open Roads
Aden - Ali Rabih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
UN Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg is racing to garner approval for extending the humanitarian truce between the Yemeni government and the Houthi militias. However, the government is insisting on Houthis lifting the siege of Taiz and complying with their obligations under the truce. On Tuesday, Grundberg met with the spokesman of the Houthi group and its chief negotiator, Muhammad Abdul Salam Fleitah. The two met in the presence of Omani officials in the Sultanate’s capital, Muscat. According to his office, Grundberg stressed “the need to reopen roads in Taiz and other areas of Yemen, to renew the armistice, and to take serious steps towards ending the conflict in a comprehensive manner.”While the Yemeni government confirms that it has fulfilled all its obligations regarding the implementation of the two-month truce that began on April 2, Houthis are still blockading Taiz. The Yemeni government has complied with the terms of the armistice, reopened Sanaa airport to commercial flights, as well as having permitted the flow of fuel to the port of Hodeidah. Grundberg on Monday held meetings with the country's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) in the southern port city of Aden. This is the third visit within a month for the UN envoy to the Yemeni interim capital. “Rashad Muhammad Al-Alimi, Chairman of the PLC, along with the two Vice-Presidents of the PLC, Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, and Dr. Abdullah Al-Alimi, met today, Monday, the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General of the United Nations, Hans Grundberg, on his third visit this month to the temporary capital Aden,” reported state news agency, Saba. Al-Alimi and his two deputies were briefed by the UN envoy on the developments of the ongoing efforts to implement the truce, and the opportunities to extend it and build on it to push the militias towards a comprehensive and just peace in accordance with the agreed local, regional and international references. Grundberg presented the results of the first phase of negotiations, regarding the opening of the crossings of Taiz and other provinces, in which the Houthis continued their intransigence and their failure to implement the terms of the truce related to opening roads in Taiz and other provinces in order to alleviate the suffering of the Yemeni people. During the meeting, the PLC chairman stressed the importance of pushing the militia to fulfill its obligations under the truce agreement, including opening all crossings, and paying employees’ salaries from the revenues of oil derivatives ships arriving at the ports of Hodeidah. Al-Alimi affirmed the continued support of the leadership and the legitimate government for the UN efforts to implement the terms of the truce, and to provide more initiatives to alleviate the human suffering of the Yemeni people, and not to compromise on any of their rights guaranteed under the constitution and relevant international laws.

HRW: Russia’s Wagner Group Set Landmines in Libya
Cairo - Jamal Jawhar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 1 June, 2022
The Wagner Group, a private Russian military security contractor, has used banned landmines and booby traps near Tripoli, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Tuesday. “New information from Libyan agencies and demining groups links the Wagner Group to the use of banned landmines and booby traps in Libya in 2019-2020,” it said in a report. HRW therefore called on the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, to examine the role of Libyan and foreign armed groups in laying antipersonnel mines during the conflict. “These mines killed at least three Libyan de-miners before the mines’ locations were identified,” HRW stressed. Lama Fakih, HRW Middle East and North Africa director, said the Wagner Group added to the deadly legacy of mines and booby traps scattered across Tripoli’s suburbs that has made it dangerous for people to return to their homes.“A credible and transparent international inquiry is needed to ensure justice for the many civilians and deminers unlawfully killed and maimed by these weapons,” she said. Fakih added that antipersonnel landmines, which are designed to be exploded by the presence, proximity, or contact of a person, violate international humanitarian law because they cannot discriminate between civilians and combatants. HRW’s report said the mines and booby traps found at the 35 coordinates were hidden inside homes and other structures, in some cases inside furniture and were often activated with a tripwire that was not visible.
Mine experts also told the NGO that the mines and booby traps apparently constructed by Wagner operatives were more sophisticated and lethal than those laid by Libyan, Sudanese, or Syrian groups. According to the Libyan Mine Action Center, LibMAC, of the 130 people killed and 196 injured in Libya between May 2020 and March 2022 by mines and other explosive ordnance, most were civilians in Tripoli’s southern suburbs.In this regard, Fakih said, “Independent of an international inquiry, Libyan courts need to impartially investigate and appropriately prosecute commanders and fighters – including foreigners – for war crimes in Libya.”Meanwhile, the Libyan Oil and Gas Ministry warned on Tuesday from the outcomes of closing the country’s major oil fields and ports on Libya’s economy and the infrastructure of the oil sector.A committee formed by the ministry to investigate the closure of oil ports and fields confirmed that civilian groups are not connected to the closure process. “A military entity is behind the shutting down of oil fields. This entity is represented by the Petroleum Facilities Guard, which took instructions from certain political parties,” it said.

EU Urges All Sudanese Parties to Engage Actively, Constructively in Dialogue Efforts
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis and Mohammed Amin Yassin
The European Union on Tuesday welcomed the decision of Gen. Abdel-Fattah Burhan, head of Sudan’s ruling sovereign council, to lift a state of emergency that was imposed in the country following the October coup he led. “The EU welcomes the announced lifting of the State of Emergency throughout the country and the release of detainees as commendable first steps in creating the much needed conducive environment for dialogue,” it said in a statement. Last Sunday, Burhan announced lifting the state of emergency and the release of the detained activists to set the stage for meaningful intra-Sudanese talks facilitated by the trilateral mechanism of the UN, the African Union (AU) and regional bloc IGAD, to resolve the political crisis. “Time is of the essence for Sudan’s efforts to find an inclusive and sustainable way out of the current crisis, which is severely affecting the population,” the EU statement said.
It called upon the authorities to continue their efforts to create a truly conducive environment for dialogue, by completing the release of those who were detained since last October 25, ensuring due process to those detainees who face criminal charges against them. The EU also stressed the need to effectively end the violence against peaceful demonstrators, allowing them to enjoy their basic human rights of assembly and expression. “It is crucial for alleged violations of human rights to be investigated and for perpetrators to be held to account,” it said. The 27-member European bloc also noted that all parties must engage actively and constructively in the dialogue efforts, revealing their full support for Sudanese-led talks. Meanwhile in Sudan, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) considered that Burhan’s steps must be followed by a decision to end all the repressive measures that resulted from the “coup” and that empowered the isolated system. “We urge an end of all the repressive measures the security forces used under the emergency law to disperse the peaceful protesters,” the Forces said. Also, they demanded the release of all political detainees and to stop using the criminal charges against them for political purposes. The FFC also affirmed its “continued positive interaction” with the UN-AU-IGAD process to end the coup and its consequences as well as to establish a new constitutional path of transition based on a full civilian authority. On Monday, troika countries, Norway, the UK and the US, in addition to the tripartite mechanism of the UN, the AU and the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development welcomed the release of detainees and lifting of the state of emergency and considered them as important steps to create the right environment for dialogue. Mass demonstrations have rocked Sudan since Burhan led a military coup on October 25 that drew wide international condemnation. Meanwhile, the UN Expert on Human Rights in Sudan, Adama Dieng, is set to begin on Wednesday his official visit to the country, the UN announced Tuesday. During his four-day visit, Dieng will meet with senior Sudanese government officials, representatives of civil society organizations, human rights defenders, heads of UN entities, and diplomats. The UN official will also discuss the recommendations he made during his February visit to Khartoum and the issue of providing technical support and capacity building to enhance the human rights situation in Sudan. This is Dieng’s second trip to Sudan.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on June 01-02/2022
Iran Not Waiting for Nuclear Weapons to Destabilize the Middle East
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute./June 01/2022
The goal of Iran's mullahs is to spread their control to as many countries as possible by using their terrorist proxies, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
Iran's rulers are also seeking to increase their political influence in these countries. They aim to turn Iran into a superpower and major player in the Middle East at a time when US influence in the region appears to be dwindling.
Needless to say, Iran's mullahs are not only opposed to peace with Israel. They and their proxies have repeatedly stated that their real goal is to eliminate Israel.
Some even warned that Iran's real intention is to destroy and isolate Iraq....
"Iran, not Israel, is the greatest affliction for Iraq." — Farouk Yusef, Iraqi author, Al Arab, May 29, 2022.
The Iraqis, Yusef added, would have preferred to see a law criminalizing working for Iran because they do not want to end up like Lebanon, which has been destroyed by Hezbollah.
"The forces affiliated with Iran accuse everyone who refuses to be subordinate to Iran of seeking normalization with Israel." — Hamid Al-Kifaey, Iraqi journalist, Sky News Arabia, May 15, 2022.
This is how Arab dictatorships regularly seek to discredit the opposition or anyone who speaks out against corruption and bad government: by accusing them of being Israeli or American spies and traitors.
[T]he law may be used to target political opponents who have been protesting against the corruption of the ruling elite in Baghdad. The anti-corruption activists have often been accused by the government of being "agents of Israel." — Akeel Abbas, Iraqi academic and author, Al Hurra, May 28, 2022.
The law "radically and explicitly violates two of the basic principles stipulated in the Iraqi constitution, which prohibits enacting a law that contradicts the principles of democracy and basic rights and freedoms." — Akeel Abbas, Sky News Arabia, May 29, 2022.
Additionally, while Russia has been losing thousands of soldiers trying to take over Ukraine, Iran, without so much as swatting a fly, has been quietly filling the void left by Russians abandoning Syria.
Iran is not waiting until it possesses nuclear weapons to proceed with its schemes. Instead, it is spreading its aggression like a deadly virus to other Muslim nations.
Or do the Biden administration and the international community secretly want the destruction of Israel and the Gulf States?
Iran's mullahs continue to meddle in the internal affairs of Arab countries, especially Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Iraq's new law criminalizing "normalization" with Israel is yet another example of how Iran and its allies feel confident enough to continue with their malicious and expansionist schemes in the Middle East. Pictured: Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, receives Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in Tehran, on July 21, 2020.
Iran's mullahs are continuing to meddle in the internal affairs of Arab countries, especially Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
This is happening while the US administration and other Western powers continue to delude themselves into thinking that appeasing Iran's rulers and signing a new nuclear deal with them will bring security and stability to the Middle East and the rest of the world.
The goal of Iran's mullahs is to spread their control to as many countries as possible by using their terrorist proxies, including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthi militia in Yemen.
The mullahs' efforts, however, are not limited to the use of military force and terrorism in the four Arab countries.
Iran's rulers are also seeking to increase their political influence in these countries. They aim to turn Iran into a superpower and major player in the Middle East at a time when US influence in the region appears to be dwindling.
Iran's mullahs and their allies also want to make sure that no more Arabs or Muslims will make peace with Israel.
Needless to say, Iran's mullahs are not only opposed to peace with Israel. They and their proxies have repeatedly stated that their real goal is to eliminate Israel.
Now the mullahs have every reason to be satisfied. Their effort to stop Arabs from signing peace agreements with Israel scored an achievement when Iraq's parliament voted in favor of a law to criminalize normalization with the "Zionist entity," punishable with a death sentence.
The law is a huge gift to Iran and its allies in Iraq. On the other hand, it is a severe blow to those Iraqis and Arabs who want to make peace with Israel but are now afraid of Iran and its puppets.
"The [Iraqi] House of Representatives voted, during its session today, on a proposed law criminalizing normalization with the Zionist entity," the parliament's media department said in a statement.
The new law stipulates penalties, including life or temporary imprisonment, and aims, according to its first article, to "prevent the establishment of diplomatic, political, military, economic, cultural, or any other form of relations with the Zionist entity."
Iraq, in other words, is saying: "We will kill any Iraqi who dares to engage in any form of normalization with Israeli Jews." This warning, of course, has brought joy to the leaders of Iran.
Unsurprisingly, Palestinians were quick to welcome the Iraqi parliament's approval of the bill criminalizing normalization with Israel. The Palestinians have always been among the first to condemn any Arab who talks to Israel or seeks to make peace with it.
Rouhi Fattouh, head of the Palestinian National Council, the PLO's legislative body, said in a statement that the "honorable position is not strange to Iraq, which is historically known for its political and economic support for the Palestinian people."
Fattouh called on Arab and Islamic parliaments to follow the example of the Iraq's decision to criminalize normalization with Israel, which, he professed, practices the "most heinous crimes" against the Palestinian people and their Islamic and Christian lands and sanctities.
It is worth noting that Fattouh is a senior official of the PLO, the organization that signed the Oslo Accords with Israel in 1993-1995. Then, the former leader of the PLO, Yasser Arafat, sent a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin claiming that the organization recognizes Israel's right to exist.
Fattouh is a hypocrite: his opposition to normalization with Israel stands in sharp contrast to the Oslo Accords between the PLO and Israel.
Since signing the Oslo Accords, the PLO leaders, including Mahmoud Abbas, have been talking to and doing business with Israelis almost on a daily basis.
Iran has also praised the law, saying it was a source for pride and a sign of the "brave" positions of the Iraqi people.
Yet, while Iran and the Palestinians, including Hamas, were celebrating the new law, some Iraqi writers and journalists said that the law was counterproductive and served only Iran's interests.
Some even warned that Iran's real intention is to destroy and isolate Iraq.
"There is an Iranian desire to isolate Iraq from the world behind this law, which the Iraqis do not need," wrote Iraqi author Farouk Yusef.
"Iran, not Israel, is the greatest affliction for Iraq. Iran, which did not leave a place in Iraq without interfering in it, is seeking through a scandalous law to destroy Iraq's relations with foreign companies that will fear cooperation with a country that may at any moment put it on the list of countries that cooperate with Israel. And Iran is the only beneficiary of Iraq's isolation from the world while it is working to develop its global relations."
Yusef said that a majority of Iraqis have realized that Iran is more dangerous to their existence than Israel. The Iraqis, he added, would have preferred to see a law criminalizing working for Iran because they do not want to end up like Lebanon, which has been destroyed by Hezbollah.
According to Yusef, Iraq is losing its sovereignty, while its politicians threaten to boycott Israel, which does not interfere in Iraq's internal affairs. "This game is part of the Iraqi disaster," he lamented.
Iraqi journalist Hamid Al-Kifaey also warned that the new law criminalizing normalization with Israel would isolate Iraq from the rest of the world and make it subordinate to only one country -- Iran. Al-Kifaey pointed out that even Iran had in the past cooperated with Israel, bought weapons from it, and exchanged military intelligence with it throughout the period of the Iran-Iraq War:
"Iranian-Israeli cooperation was well-known, although it was not public... Anyone who reviews the records of the 1980s will learn about direct transactions between Iran and Israel, the most important of which are US arms sales, which amounted to $2 billion dollars a year."
Al-Kifaey wrote that the time has come for the Iraqi people to take a clear position on the Iranian-affiliated political forces "that seek to mislead them, play on their feelings and tamper with their interests in the name of principles, honor, patriotism and religion."
He noted that the issue of normalization between Iraq and Israel was anyway not on the table, which raises questions about the timing of the law:
"The issue was not raised in the first place... The forces affiliated with Iran accuse everyone who refuses to be subordinate to Iran of seeking normalization with Israel. These forces try to exploit the Iraqis' strong feelings towards Palestine and its people."
Iraqi writer and political analyst Akeel Abbas noted that violation of the new law "can lead to the death penalty or life imprisonment without any commutation of the penalty."
Abbas pointed out that the current version of the law could even criminalize "anyone who may read a book by an Israeli author that talks about the conflict."
He expressed fear that the law may be used to target political opponents who have been protesting against the corruption of the ruling elite in Baghdad. The anti-corruption activists have often been accused by the government of being "agents of Israel."
This is how Arab dictatorships regularly seek to discredit the opposition or anyone who speaks out against corruption and bad government: by accusing them of being Israeli or American spies and traitors.
Abbas complained that the law represents "an infringement on the right of the Iraqi citizen to think, read and speak ideas."
In another article, Abbas wrote that the law "opens a wide door to tyranny in Iraq... [and] radically and explicitly violates two of the basic principles stipulated in the Iraqi constitution, which prohibits enacting a law that contradicts the principles of democracy and basic rights and freedoms."
Abbas also warned that the law "will do more injustice to innocent Iraqis and lead to more ethnic tension in the country."
Legal expert Maitham Handal also expressed fear that the new law would be exploited to "muzzle freedoms" and used as a weapon against political opponents.
Iraq's new law is yet another example of how Iran and its allies feel confident enough to continue with their malicious and expansionist schemes in the Middle East, even as the US and other Western powers continue to search for ways to resume the stalled negotiations with Iran's mullahs over reaching a new nuclear deal.
Additionally, while Russia has been losing thousands of soldiers trying to take over Ukraine, Iran, without so much as swatting a fly, has been quietly filling the void left by Russians abandoning Syria.
Iran is not waiting until it possesses nuclear weapons to proceed with its schemes. Instead, it is spreading its aggression like a deadly virus to other Muslim nations.
Or do the Biden administration and the international community secretly want the destruction of Israel and the Gulf States?
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Don’t Let Iran Humiliate the IAEA Again
Jacob Nagel and Richard Goldberg/ The Dispatch/June 01/2022
New reporting and an IAEA assessment reveal that Iran is in violation of both the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and the JCPOA.
The International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet next week in Vienna to consider a new assessment from the U.N. agency’s chief nuclear watchdog that suggests Iran is concealing undeclared nuclear sites and material in violation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The United States and the rest of the 35-nation board should respond forcefully—rejecting any sanctions relief for the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism until Tehran submits to a complete and verifiable accounting of all its nuclear activities.
In addition to the latest stunning report from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, the agency’s upcoming board meeting takes place against the backdrop of last week’s shocking revelation by the Wall Street Journal that Iran obtained confidential files outlining what the U.N. agency knew about Tehran’s clandestine nuclear weapons program. Iran then used that information to develop false but plausible narratives to deceive inspectors. This mendacity mirrors revelations in Iran’s secret nuclear archive, part of which Israel’s Mossad seized from a Tehran warehouse in early 2018, that document Tehran’s orders to falsify records and conceal the regime’s work on nuclear weapons.
The Journal’s newly discovered documents, like the archive, underscore two basic truths. First, Iran was violating the 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from the very start by hiding its nuclear weapons-related activities and sites from what was supposed to be the most intrusive verification regime in history. Second, while the JCPOA had many fatal flaws, including allowing Iran to retain a domestic enrichment program alongside expiration dates on clauses banning key nuclear activities, its most fundamental failing was allowing any deal to proceed without first obtaining a complete and verifiable accounting of all the Islamic Republic’s past and present nuclear activities—especially the program’s possible military dimensions.
The archive led the IAEA to discover at least four previously unknown sites, including three where inspectors found traces of man-altered uranium—likely sourced to Iran’s work to develop and test its military nuclear program. Parties to the NPT are required to declare nuclear material and activities to the IAEA, and the agency’s findings could lead its Board of Governors to declare Iran in non-compliance with its treaty obligations. The board’s pronouncement would mark the first political step in forwarding the file to the U.N. Security Council, which could then reimpose international sanctions.
When Israel first exposed Iran’s nuclear archive, supporters of the nuclear deal downplayed its significance, arguing it merely contained details of a nuclear weapons program that no longer exists—that it was nothing but a historical record of a program abandoned in 2003. But the discovery of uranium particles at the undeclared sites, where commercial satellite imagery also showed recent efforts to destroy buildings and dig out contaminated dirt, suggests an ongoing concealment campaign—one that has led the IAEA’s top watchdog to repeatedly sound an alarm. And as the Journal’s recent report demonstrates, Iran’s sophisticated cheating machine is years in the making.
In March, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi announced he would give Iran one last chance to explain how seemingly undeclared nuclear material showed up at undeclared nuclear sites—with an eye toward presenting his conclusions at the agency’s June board meeting. Grossi on Monday reportedly circulated his findings to the board, stating that despite “numerous opportunities” to do so, “Iran has not provided explanations that are technically credible. Nor has Iran informed the Agency of the current location(s) of the nuclear material and/or equipment contaminated with nuclear material.”
Barring an unexpected outpouring of transparency and forthrightness by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Grossi’s report next week should give the IAEA board a choice. It can either defend the integrity of the NPT or sacrifice the backbone of the international nonproliferation regime for the sake of a political agreement that tacitly accepts the concealment of nuclear work, ignores Iran’s ongoing deception, and otherwise provides little nonproliferation value.
In 2015, Grossi’s predecessor, the late Yukiya Amano, left a permanent stain on the IAEA when he allowed Iran to stonewall the agency’s requests, pursuant to the JCPOA, for access to key nuclear personnel and records. Weeks later, under American and European pressure, Amano issued a report whitewashing questions about the past military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program—the JCPOA’s key predicate for lifting sanctions on the Islamic Republic.
Now, seven years later, with President Joe Biden eyeing a revival of the JCPOA, Grossi has refused to buckle under similar pressure. He has all but declared Iran in violation of its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and the NPT. The onus to demand transparency and accountability now shifts to Grossi’s board. The ball is in Biden’s court.
If Iran conducted undeclared nuclear weapons work at several sites, the IAEA board would be wise to ask where the associated materials and equipment are stored today. The board should also ask whether Iran has concealed other sites from the agency. How, after all, can any nuclear deal fully verify that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful without a full accounting of all past and present activities?
Grossi has undoubtedly asked these questions of Iran since he replaced Amano in 2019. But without any pressure from his board of governors, the U.N. Security Council, or individual member states, Iran has no incentive to cooperate with the IAEA’s safeguards investigation. Last week, U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that prospects for reaching a deal with Tehran were now “tenuous at best,” following President Biden’s decision to reject Iran’s request to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organization list.
That’s welcome news. After all, Grossi had already warned there could be no genuine return to the 2015 accord due to Iran’s irreversible gain of technical knowledge on advanced centrifuges. “You cannot put the genie back into the bottle,” Grossi said last year.
President Biden avoided making a massive strategic mistake by keeping the IRGC on America’s terror list. He can avoid another by defending the IAEA and the NPT—by delivering consequences to a rogue regime that breaches its international treaty obligations.
*Jacob Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Technion Aerospace faculty. He previously served as acting national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as head of the National Security Council. Richard Goldberg is a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He previously served as the White House National Security Council’s director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction, and as the lead Senate Republican negotiator for several rounds of congressionally enacted sanctions against Iran. Follow Richard on Twitter @rich_goldberg. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/05/31/dont-let-iran-humiliate-iaea-again/

Why Is Israeli-Palestinian Violence Returning to Jenin?
Shany Mor and Joe Truzman/The National Interest/June 01/2022
Two months into a renewed wave of violence centered around Jenin, the city's experiment in “managing the conflict” might be nearing its end.
The tragic death in Jenin of Al Jazeera correspondent Shireen Abu Aqleh has made that city synonymous once again with Israeli-Palestinian violence. Little known outside the northern West Bank city of Jenin is that it had been relatively peaceful for almost fifteen years before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and that the city benefited greatly from Israeli Arab tourism and investment. It is not yet known whether the bullet that killed Aqleh was fired from an Israeli or a Palestinian weapon. Yet even if that mystery were solved, it would not reverse the transition of a once peaceful city to a focal point for militant organizations competing for status as they await the inevitable demise of ill and aged Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.
In the world of Palestinian militancy, Jenin is regarded as the bastion of Palestinian “resistance” in the West Bank, both past and present. It serves as a hub for several U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs), including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), and Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, along with other Islamist organizations.
During the second intifada, from 2000 to 2005, terrorists used Jenin as a launch point to carry out numerous suicide bombings inside Israeli cities and communities. Due to repeated terrorist attacks originating from the West Bank in 2002, the Israeli government authorized the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to enter Jenin as a part of a broad military operation to remove the threat. That battle left its scars on all sides. For the Israelis, it was mostly remembered for the high number of combat losses, including an ambush that killed thirteen reservists, by far the IDF’s biggest setback during the entire 2002 offensive. Indignation and frustration with foreign media and human rights organizations reporting on a “massacre” that hadn’t actually happened permanently cemented a skepticism about global public opinion that had until then been a province of parts of the Right alone.
For Palestinians, the battle left memories of effective resistance. Jenin was the one locus of combat where militants put up enough of a fight to do real damage to the Israeli army. But the images of the destruction at the site of the ambush also had a long-term impact, as did the loss of so many militant fighters and leaders. This trauma defined Jenin’s reputation, but less memorable events steered the city back toward a more peaceful existence. In 2005, the Israelis withdrew from four West Bank settlements in the Jenin region, the same week as the more dramatic Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. It rendered Jenin the only major West Bank town without a real settler presence in its immediate environs.
The absence of settlements changed completely the character of the IDF’s presence. Its troops were, on the one hand, much freer to enter the city and carry out arrests. And at the same time, they were not there protecting settlements or manning checkpoints around roads to settlements. This, combined with extensive U.S. and European involvement in training the local Palestinian police force, brought Jenin a surprising measure of quiet for a period of about fifteen years, buttressed by a quiet stream of Arab Israelis from across the Green Line coming to Jenin to shop, invest, and do business.
All this started coming apart with the pandemic lockdowns in 2020 and the burgeoning internal rivalries of various Palestinian armed factions gearing up for an inevitable succession battle in the Palestinian Authority, as Abbas rounds out his ninth decade and begins the eighteenth year of a four-year term in office.
The Gaza conflict in May last year accelerated the return to violence. The escape of six militants (most of whom are members of PIJ) from a prison in northern Israel, just across the line from Jenin, also rallied fighters across the Palestinian territories. Lastly, IDF operations in the West Bank throughout 2021 resulted in an unusually high number of militant deaths.
These deaths prompted terrorist organizations in Jenin to reorganize and establish a joint operations room to respond to IDF incursions more effectively. The result was a marked increase in clashes with IDF troops.
Exacerbating the problem in Jenin was a wave of high-profile terrorist attacks deep inside Israeli territory beginning in late March this year. In some cases, the attackers were identified as residents of Jenin, which intensified both the almost daily IDF operations in the city and the militant’s response to the added incursions. Though investigations are ongoing, the daytime raids by the IDF were a possible contributing factor in casualties, as the IDF usually operates at night, when fewer pedestrians are around. On several occasions, including when Aqleh and an Israeli counter-terrorism officer, Noam Raz were killed, the IDF operated in Jenin during the day.
At the extremes of violence and of (relative) quiet, Jenin, a city with little religious or symbolic importance to either Jews or Arabs, told its own story of conflict. Once the nest of suicide bombers and Israel’s most aggressive military action in the West Bank, it became an island of calm. The combination of foreign training for Palestinian police, the evacuation of nearby Israeli settlements, and the continued presence of the IDF was something of an experiment in “managing the conflict.” Two months into a renewed wave of violence centered around Jenin again, that experiment might be nearing its end.
*Shany Mor is an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Follow Shany on Twitter @ShMMor.
*Joe Truzman is a research analyst at the Long War Journal, a project of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonpartisan research institute. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeTruzman.

On the Iranian Understanding of National Borders and their Stability: The Worst Form of Conservatism
Hazem Saghieh/ Asharq Al-Awsat/June 01/2022
A few days ago, Iran behaved like a power that safeguards national borders and guarantees their stability. According to the German Press Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh affirmed that “the Islamic Republic of Iran opposes any military action and use of force on the territory of other countries with the aim of resolving disputes, because this violates the territorial integrity and national sovereignty of those countries and will only further complicate the situation and intensify tensions.”He delivered this statement in response to a question about the prospect of Turkey launching a military operation in Iraq or Syria, a step that Turkish President Erdogan had been threatening to take. Conferring additional diplomatic poise to his statement, as diplomats representing major powers do, Khatibzadeh added that Iran appreciates “Turkey’s security concerns;” but that “the only way to resolve them is to engage in dialogue and respect the bilateral agreements that have been signed with neighbors, as well as agreements that were reached as part of the Astana peace process, which include respecting Syria’s national sovereignty and committing to the principle of avoiding the use force.”“The past few years have demonstrated that the use of military force against other countries has not helped to solve problems but rather leads to worrisome humanitarian ramifications and further complicates matters in the region,” he went, adding historical wisdom to the diplomatic wisdom he had already shared.
He is entirely correct. Turkey once again crossing its southern borders, which it shares with Syria and Iraq, targeting the Kurds in both, as well as the sovereignty of these two countries, could only be a dangerous and worrying step.
The fact is that despite the collapse of the Sultanate a century ago, Ankara has not abandoned its sultanic mentality. It continues to see its neighbors as dominions that had been seized from it, dominions it can “legitimately” “keep in line” when that is required to preserve its “interests” or “national security.” We know that almost all the actions taken by Russia, with its imperial consciousness, draw on this tradition, as its ongoing war in Ukraine conclusively demonstrates.
Khomeinist Iran, on the other hand, is different. With the exception of Iraq, it does not share borders with any Arab country, and no Arab country was part of its empire in modern history. True, Tehran will not give back the territory it had annexed in previous eras, whether it is the three Emirati islands in the Gulf that were occupied by the Shah in 1971, or Khuzestan (Arabistan), which was seized by Reza Khan from Khazal Jaber al-Kaabi, the last of the Kaabi rulers. However, it is also true that in spreading its influence, Iran draws inspiration more from partisan and missionary tools than it does from an imperial imaginary. In this sense, if Turkey’s consciousness is similar to Tsarist-Putinist Russia, then Iran’s consciousness is similar to that of the Soviets. This strategy is timely and useful because Iran possesses powerful local tools, just as the Soviet Union had had communist parties in distant countries. By extension, it has an ideological message to preach, like the Soviet Union and unlike Turkey.
After four decades in Lebanon, two decades in Iraq, and a decade in Syria and Yemen, Iran and its local tools have succeeded in establishing a stability that institutionalizes instability, which takes the form of real or potential civil and regional wars. Generally, preserving states and borders has become beneficial to Tehran- so long as these states were hollowed out from within them while borders define countries’ shapes only insofar as lines in a body of water give it shape. States and borders being undermined, on the other hand, threatens the status quo that Iran has become familiar with and accustomed to controlling and dealing with. Undermining them threatens to introduce new powers that had not been accounted for or to pull away other powers that had been well known and well accounted for.
In Syria, for example, Iran has become accustomed to living next to Russia, with whom it shares support for Assad, cohabitation from afar with the United States, with whom it shares the “war on terror,” and a relatively contained war with Israel. But if Turkey were to get involved further and Russia left, many cards would be shuffled, and Iran would be forced to adapt: In addition to Ankara’s new role, the atrophy of Bashar al-Assad’s regime would exacerbate, and the Israeli-Iranian war could get out of hand after the Russian mediation is disrupted. Something similar could be said of Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, all countries where Iran would prefer to avoid seeing any new factors coming in or any old ones getting out: neither revolutions nor elections are welcomed, nor is the development of relations with political powers or sources of economic support, nor is the emergence of new ideas and visions for the future… Everything, then, ought to maintain the shape it has currently taken, with the dominance of the Iranian regime as its backbone. Thus, the stability that is desired, after everything Iran achieved for itself, is one that sees countries continue to walk along their path toward atrophy. And this, despite all the revolutionary rhetoric, is an extremely conservative project defending conditions so poor that the most hardcore conservatives would shy away from standing up for.

'With Us or Against Us?'
Tariq Al-Homayed/ Asharq Al-Awsat/June 01/2022
The Arab Gulf States, in particular Saudi Arabia, are witnessing a remarkable diplomatic movement, with both publicized and undeclared contacts and visits by US officials, as well as a trip of the Russian Foreign Minister to the region. This movement comes in light of the repercussions of the Ukrainian crisis, the stagnation of the Iranian nuclear negotiations in Vienna, and with the increasing talk about an upcoming visit of US President Joe Biden to the region. Meanwhile, in an official statement, Oman’s Minister of Foreign Affairs said that the Ukrainian crisis required a European solution, adding that the “with us or against us” approach would not work. I believe that this is an accurate and correct statement. The issue today is not “with us or against us,” as mentioned by the Omani foreign minister, but about our interests, and yours. This is not blackmail or recklessness, but the reality.
The simplest example is the difficulties faced by the European countries themselves to reach an agreement on boycotting the Russian oil that they receive by sea by the end of this year, with the exception of the oil that passes through the Russian Druzhba pipeline, which reaches Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
If this is the case of the European Union, which, along with the United States, imposes unprecedented sanctions on Russia, what will be the situation of other countries that are affected by the Ukrainian crisis, which are not a party to the conflict, nor part of European territory?
Here, someone might ask: Is neutrality the solution? Of course not. Rather, what is required, for the Gulf States, or others, is to take into account their security, political and economic interests, all of which are intertwined and interrelated, especially with Iranian threats and the possibility of war in the region. Accordingly, we are not facing simple options, nor a black and white issue, but rather a complex crisis that has changed the rules of the game, and imposed a global equation that is similar to the Cold War, as well as the formation of two camps. Thus, simple stances cannot be taken without bearing in mind the interests. The Gulf States cannot take sides without calculating losses and profits. Such calculations are not easy, and are not based on the reality of oil prices today. They actually depend on the present, tomorrow and the day after. The battle is long, and the consequences are far-reaching.
Consequently, any Saudi or Gulf agreement made with the United States, for example, will be of a strategic nature and will have a lot of implications at the security, economic and political levels.
The same applies to the relationship with Russia, as no one can predict the Russian plan or its final goal in the Ukrainian crisis, especially amid unprecedented international sanctions on Moscow, which are tantamount to an ongoing war, even if the war in Ukraine ends.
Therefore, we are not facing a situation of “with us or against us”, or neutrality or not, but rather we are in front of a bigger story: Where is our interest in all what’s happening? How can we deal with a global crisis, where neutrality is an impossible choice?
My conviction is that our primary goal must be our interests, and how to achieve them, with cold rational calculations.

I Thought Putin Invaded Only Ukraine. I Was Wrong.
Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/June 01/2022
I’ve been writing nonstop about the Ukraine war ever since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, but I confess that it took coming to Europe and meeting with politicians, diplomats and entrepreneurs here for me to fully grasp what happened. You see, I thought Vladimir Putin had invaded Ukraine. I was wrong. Putin had invaded Europe. He shouldn’t have done that. This could be the biggest act of folly in a European war since Hitler invaded Russia in 1941. I only fully understood this when I got to this side of the Atlantic. It was easy from afar to assume — and probably easy for Putin to assume — that eventually Europe would reconcile itself to the full-scale invasion Putin launched against Ukraine on Feb. 24, the way Europe reconciled with his 2014 devouring of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula, a remote slice of land where he met little resistance and set off limited shock waves.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
This invasion — with Russian soldiers indiscriminately shelling Ukrainian apartment buildings and hospitals, killing civilians, looting homes, raping women and creating the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II — is increasingly seen as a 21st-century rerun of Hitler’s onslaught against the rest of Europe, which started in September 1939 with the German attack on Poland. Add on top of that Putin’s seeming threat to use nuclear weapons, warning that any country that interfered with his unprovoked war would face “consequences you have never seen,” and it explains everything. It explains why, practically overnight, Germany’s government dispensed with nearly 80 years of aversion to conflict and maintaining the smallest defense budget possible, and announced instead a huge increase in military spending and plans to send arms to Ukraine.
It explains why, practically overnight, Sweden and Finland abandoned more than 70 years of neutrality and applied for membership in NATO.
It explains why, practically overnight, Poland gave up playing around with pro-Putin, anti-immigrant populist Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, and opened its borders to more than two million Ukrainian refugees while also making itself into a crucial land bridge to funnel NATO arms into Ukraine.
It explains why, practically overnight, the European Union threw off years of baby-step economic sanctions on Russia and fired a precision economic-sanctions missile right into the center of Putin’s economy.
In sum, what I thought was just a Russian invasion of Ukraine has become a European earthquake — “an awakening — boom! — and then everything changed,” as Joschka Fischer, the former German foreign minister, put it to me. “The status quo ante will not come back. You are seeing a huge change in Europe in response to Russia — not based on American pressure, but because the threat perception of Russia today is completely different: We understand that Putin is not talking about Ukraine alone, but about all of us and our way of freedom.”
Whether we like it or not, added Fischer, modern Europe is now in a “confrontational mode with Russia. Russia is no longer part of any European peace order.” There’s been “a complete loss of trust with Putin.”Is there any wonder why? Putin’s army is systematically destroying Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with the seeming intent not to impose Russian rule on these towns, communities and farms but rather to erase them and their residents from the map and make true by force Putin’s crackpot claim that Ukraine is not a real country.
At the Davos World Economic Forum last week, I interviewed Anatoliy Fedoruk, the mayor of Bucha, Ukraine, the town where Russia stands accused of murdering scores of civilians and leaving their bodies on the streets to rot, or piled into a mass grave in a churchyard, before the Russian troops were driven out.“We had 419 peaceful citizens murdered in multiple ways,” Fedoruk told me.
“We had no military infrastructure in our town. People were defenseless. The Russian soldiers stole, they raped and they drank. … I am really surprised that this is happening in the 21st century.”
If that was the “shock” phase of this war — and it is still going on — the “awe” phase is something I detected among European officials in Davos and Berlin. To put it bluntly, while the United States of America seems to be coming apart, the United States of Europe — the 27 members of the European Union — have stunned everyone, and most of all themselves, by coming together to make a fist, along with a number of other European nations and NATO, to stymie Putin’s invasion.You could almost feel E.U. officials saying: “Wow, did we make that fist? Is that our fist?” Since February, the E.U. has imposed five packages of sanctions against Russia — sanctions that not only badly hurt Russia but are also costly for the E.U. countries in terms of lost business or higher raw material costs. A sixth package, agreed to on Monday, will cut some 90 percent of E.U. oil imports from Russia by the end of this year while also ejecting Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, from SWIFT, the vital global banking messaging system. Maybe the most impressive thing is how many Ukrainian refugees E.U. nations have been willing to house without much complaint. There is an awareness that Ukrainian menfolk are fighting to defend them, too, so the E.U. nations can at least house their women, children and elderly.“
They are being given the same health care, childhood allowances and education that Poles are,” Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland’s prime minister, told me. “Why not? They are working and paying taxes. The only thing they don’t have is the right to vote.”Putin thought the E.U. would quickly splinter under his pressure, added Morawiecki, “but Putin was wrong. Europe is now much more united than before the Ukraine war.”Putin, observing all of this, must be asking himself: “Is that a fist I see coming at me from the E.U.? Can’t be! No, wait … it is! What’s going on here! I thought I had Germany in my pocket — bought and paid for with my cheap gas. I never dreamed they’d rally to Ukraine this way and see my invasion of Ukraine as an attack on all of them.”But that’s exactly what happened. Still, many in the E.U. are asking how long they will be able to maintain this painful fist. It is a legitimate question. “Putin is counting on the fatigue of the West,” Morawiecki said. “He knows that he has much more time because democracies are less patient than autocracies.”It’s true. Some E.U. leaders are already encouraging President Biden to call Putin and explore terms of a cease-fire. Putin’s forces in eastern and southern Ukraine are now out-pummeling the Ukrainian Army at various strategic junctions, volleying round after round of rockets and heavy artillery. They don’t need to be accurate; they just need to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces with their sheer volume. I hope the Ukrainians can hold their ground long enough for more advanced Western arms to arrive to even the fight and for the E.U. sanctions on Russia to really hurt, so that Ukrainians have real leverage with Putin in any negotiated settlement. That said, though, I could not help but notice another theme that has run through my conversations here. It is a conviction that because this is so much Putin’s war, and because the barbarism of his forces in this war has been so criminal, as long as Putin remains in power in Moscow it will be very difficult to trust Russia on anything regarding Ukraine. I heard no one advocate regime change, but I also heard no one say the West could return to any normalcy with Russia without it. All of which is to say something very big with Putin got broken here, and that is going to be a problem when we do move to the negotiating table — as long as Putin leads Russia. But Putin is a problem for the Russian people to deal with, not us.