English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For 31 July/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today

The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed me to bring good news to the poor.
Saint Luke 04/14-21/:”Then Jesus, filled with the power of the Spirit, returned to Galilee, and a report about him spread through all the surrounding country. He began to teach in their synagogues and was praised by everyone. When he came to Nazareth, where he had been brought up, he went to the synagogue on the sabbath day, as was his custom. He stood up to read, and the scroll of the prophet Isaiah was given to him. He unrolled the scroll and found the place where it was written: ‘The Spirit of the Lord is upon me, because he has anointed me to bring good news to the poor. He has sent me to proclaim release to the captives and recovery of sight to the blind, to let the oppressed go free, to proclaim the year of the Lord’s favour ’And he rolled up the scroll, gave it back to the attendant, and sat down. The eyes of all in the synagogue were fixed on him. Then he began to say to them, ‘Today this scripture has been fulfilled in your hearing.”

Titels For English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 30-31/2022
Lebanon parliament speaker says no presidential vote without IMF laws
Lebanon Optimistic on Reaching Maritime Border Deal with Israel
Lebanon more optimistic than ever over deal on Israel maritime border
Army contains clash between Hezbollah members, Rmeish residents
Lebanon judge orders seizure of cargo ship with flour ‘stolen from Ukraine’
Lebanon doubts Ukraine claim of stolen grain on Syrian ship
Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon issues statement on Tripoli-docked ship
Geagea sarcastically: Fayyad accepted Iran's fuel, let's prepare for electricity
UNHCR warns of rising tensions between Lebanese nationals and Syrian refugees
Hezbollah is no Resistance..Its Terrorist Record Speaks for Itself/Nadim Bustani / LCCC/July 30/ 2022

Titles For Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 30-31/2022
Pope Francis floats possibility of 'stepping aside'
Tehran Insists on Keeping Nuclear Talks, Washington Ready for All Scenarios
Iran Warns Taliban on its Water Rights from Helmand River
IHR: Iran Executes Three Women In Single Day
Iran Says it Arrested Swedish Citizen on Espionage Charges
Iraqi Tourists Killed by Floods in Northeast Iran
Sadr’s Supporters Breach Parliament Building in Baghdad's Green Zone Again
Media War Deepens Division Among Muslim Brotherhood’s Foreign Fronts
US Congress Takes Action Against Syria’s Captagon
Ukraine says scores of Russian troops were killed in Kherson
Ukraine’s Push to Take Back This City Could Make or Break the War
Sadr supporters occupy Iraq parliament, again
Russia suspends gas supplies to Latvia

Titles For LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 30-31/2022
Saudi Arabia, Israel take baby steps toward normalization by exposing cooperation/The Media Line/Ynetnews/July 30/2022
The EU's Shameful Total Appeasement of Iran's Mullahs/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./July 30, 2022
Europe Is Faking Solidarity, and Putin Knows It/Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/July 30/2022
Stability in Syria Remains a Long Distant Objective/Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 30/2022
Can the EU save the Iran nuclear deal?/Con Coughlin/The National/July 30/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 30-31/2022
Lebanon parliament speaker says no presidential vote without IMF laws
BEIRUT (Reuters)July 30, 2022
- Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri said on Saturday he would not call for a session to elect a new president until the legislature passes reforms that are preconditions for an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. An IMF deal is seen as the only way for Lebanon to recover from a financial meltdown that has plunged the country into its most destabilising crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. President Michel Aoun's six-year term ends on Oct. 31, and top politicians have voiced concern about no successor being found - warning of even greater institutional deadlock given that Lebanon has also been without a fully functioning government since May. "I will not call for a presidential election session until after the reform laws required by the IMF have been adopted," Berri said during a meeting with journalists at his Beirut residence, in comments confirmed to Reuters by his office. He said parliament should work to pass the reform laws in August, pointing to the urgent need for the measures. Berri, who has held his post for nearly three decades, said on Friday that a "miracle" would be needed for a government to be formed anytime soon. He did not elaborate. Under the constitution, the president issues the decree appointing a new prime minister based on binding consultations with MPs, and must co-sign on the formation of any new cabinet. In April, Lebanon reached a staff-level agreement with the IMF for a $3 billion bailout but a full deal is conditional on the passage of bills including capital controls, banking restructuring legislation and the 2022 budget. Lebanon's constitution says the speaker must convene parliament "one month at least and two months at most before the expiration of the term of office of the President of the Republic".Failing that, the chamber meets automatically on the 10th day preceding the term's expiration, the constitution says. Aoun came to power after a 29-month presidential vacuum in which parliament was unable to agree on electing a president. The stalemate ended with a series of deals that secured victory for Aoun and his powerful Iran-backed ally Hezbollah.Aoun is limited to one term, and major political parties have not announced any agreement on his successor.
(Reporting by Timour Azhari; Editing by Helen Popper)

Lebanon Optimistic on Reaching Maritime Border Deal with Israel
Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 30/2022
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said on Friday there is more optimism than ever on reaching a deal to delineate the country's maritime border with Israel via US mediation, according to a tweet from the ministry's account. "There has never been optimism to the extent that there is today," Bou Habib said, noting that the US official mediating the dispute, Amos Hochstein, would arrive in Beirut over the weekend for talks with Lebanese officials. Lebanon and Israel are locked in US-mediated negotiations to delineate a shared maritime border that would help determine which oil and gas resources belong to which country and pave the way for more exploration. Hochstein met Israeli negotiators in June and updated them on the results of a visit to Lebanon earlier that month, the Israeli energy ministry said at the time.

Lebanon more optimistic than ever over deal on Israel maritime border
The National/Jul 30/ 2022
Lebanon is highly optimistic about reaching a deal with Israel to delineate the two countries' shared maritime border under US mediation, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said on Friday. “There has never been optimism to the extent that there is today,” Mr Bou Habib said. US energy envoy Amos Hochstein, who has been mediating the indirect negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, will arrive in Beirut this weekend to continue talks with Lebanese officials. Mr Hochstein last visited Lebanon in June, after tension over the maritime boundary escalated when Israel moved a vessel, operated by London-listed drilling company Energean, into the disputed Karish gasfield. Israel says the gasfield in the Eastern Mediterranean, discovered a decade ago about 80 kilometres off the coast of Haifa, is part of its exclusive economic zone. Lebanon, however, says the field lies within disputed waters. In the negotiations, Lebanon had initially demanded 860 square kilometres of territory in the disputed area. But the talks entered a stalemate last year when Beirut expanded its claim in the zone by about 1,400 square km to include part of Karish. The negotiations had been on hold until Mr Hochstein returned last month. Lebanon is awaiting a response from Israel after relaying its position to the US official. Further complicating the situation is Hezbollah, the Iran-backed political party and armed group, which has threatened to attack Israel if it continues with its plan to extract gas from Karish. This month, Israel shot down three unarmed drones flown by Hezbollah that were heading towards Karish. Lebanon is in dire need of more energy. An economic crisis that began in 2019 has plunged much of the country into poverty, with widespread shortages of bread, electricity, water, medicines and other essentials.

Army contains clash between Hezbollah members, Rmeish residents
Naharnet/July 30/2022
Hezbollah members clashed overnight with residents of the southern border town of Rmeish, prompting the army to intervene to contain the situation. During the clash, residents of the town reportedly urged UNIFIL forces to protect them from “gunmen surrounding the town.”According to media reports, the incident started when a Rmeish resident was chopping wood in the Qatmoun area in the outskirts of his town. But “Hezbollah members intercepted him and prevented him from continuing his work, opening fire in the area,” the reports added. On social media, Hezbollah supporters accused the Rmeish man of “cutting trees to expose a resistance post, as Israeli bulldozers were also cutting trees on the occupied side of the border.” Other Hezbollah supporters meanwhile said that the incident will not affect Christian-Muslim coexistence in the area. Anti-Hezbollah activists meanwhile said that “after the tough response from Bkirki against Haret Hreik in the wake of the detention of Archbishop Moussa al-Hajj, Hezbollah has started provocations in the border areas, as if the Christians of the Lebanese south are an easy prey.”

Lebanon judge orders seizure of cargo ship with flour ‘stolen from Ukraine’
Najia Houssari/Arab News/July 30/2022
Loyal Agro, the grain importer, insist cargo is ‘legitimate’
The vessel, the Laodicea, is Syrian, and subject to US sanctions
BEIRUT: A judge on Friday ordered the seizure of a cargo ship docked at Tripoli in northern Lebanon carrying 5,000 tons of flour allegedly stolen from Ukraine.
The vessel, the Laodicea, is Syrian, and subject to US sanctions. The cargo is owned by Loyal Agro, a grains trading company in Turkey, which said it had provided Lebanese customs with documentation showing the source of the cargo was legitimate.
However, the Ukrainian Embassy in Beirut said the vessel was “carrying 5,000 tons of barley and 5,000 tons of flour that we suspect was taken from Ukrainian stores.” It said a judge in Ukraine had issued a ruling to seize the vessel and the cargo after an investigation.
A Loyal Agro spokesman said the cargo had initially been destined for Syria but the company decided to offload 5,000 tons of flour in Lebanon because of bread shortages there. He said flour could be sold for up to $650 a ton in Lebanon, compared with $600 in Syria. Bakeries in Lebanon were inundated this week by frustrated crowds in a country where about half the population is food insecure. Lebanon used to import most of its wheat from Ukraine, but shipments have been disrupted by Russia’s invasion and blockade of the main Black Sea ports.
Nasser Yassin, Lebanon’s caretaker environment minister, said: “Lebanon respects international laws. The ship said to be stolen from Ukraine and docked in Tripoli has not been offloaded.”He said the matter was being looked into by the Lebanese ministers of economy and public works. Some Lebanese observers fear certain parties may take advantage of the economic and political chaos in Lebanon to smuggle goods into Syria and circumvent US sanctions, especially following claims that the Laodicea belonged to the Syrian General Directorate of Ports.
A Lebanese Economy Ministry source told Arab News: “Importing wheat or flour from abroad doesn’t require the approval of the ministry unless it was subsidized by the central bank. “Other than that, private companies and mills have the right to freely import wheat or flour, provided that the Lebanese customs check the legitimacy of the importation.” Lebanon’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib said Lebanese authorities had not yet been able to “determine the source of the flour and barley cargo carried by the ship.”He said Lebanon had “received a number of complaints and warnings from a number of Western countries” following the docking of the ship. The new maritime row comes a week before Lebanon marks the second anniversary of the Beirut port blast on Aug. 4.

Lebanon doubts Ukraine claim of stolen grain on Syrian ship
Associated Pres/July 30/2022
Lebanon has appeared to reject claims by the Ukrainian Embassy in Beirut that a Syrian ship docked in a Lebanese port is carrying Ukrainian grain stolen by Russia, following an inspection by Lebanese customs officials. A senior Lebanese customs official told The Associated Press that there was "nothing wrong" with the cargo of the Laodicea, which docked in the Lebanese port of Tripoli on Thursday, and that its papers were in order. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media. The controversy surrounding the ship has underscored how Lebanon, a tiny Mediterranean country bordering Syria, has been in the crosshairs of Russia's months-long war in Ukraine. The Laodicea is carrying 5,000 tons of flour and 5,000 tons of barley that Ukraine's Embassy in Beirut says was illegally taken by Russia. After the embassy raised the alarm, Lebanese authorities initiated an investigation. The Russian Embassy, meanwhile, has told Lebanese media that the Ukrainian claim was "baseless."The U.S. Department of the Treasury had sanctioned the Laodicea in 2015 for its affiliation with the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad. According to the Ukrainian Embassy, the Laodicea is among scores of vessels that Kyiv alleges transported grain stolen by Russia. An embassy statement Friday said the ship had turned off its AIS tracking system in the Black Sea for 10 days, after docking earlier this month in Russia-controlled Crimea's port of Feodosia. There, the embassy said, it was "loaded with barley and wheat flour illegally exported from the territories of Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv and Kherson" in Ukraine -- areas taken by Russia in the war. Marine Traffic, which monitors vessel traffic and location of ships on seas, said the vessel was initially heading to Tartus Port in Syria, and had been expected to arrive there earlier this week. A Turkey-based firm that sent the ship, Loyal Agro Co LTD, said that the cargo had initially been destined for Syria but the company decided to offload 5,000 tons of flour in Lebanon amid bread shortages tied to a three-year economic crisis. The official added that the flour could be sold for between $620 to $650 per ton in Lebanon, whereas a ton would fetch $600 in Syria. On Friday, there were no signs that the ship's cargo was being unloaded and the customs official who spoke to the AP said the ship will remain docked until "the owner decides what to do with the cargo."Also Friday, caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said Lebanon had received "a number of protests and warnings from a number of Western countries following the arrival" of the Syrian-flagged ship in Tripoli. The British Embassy in Beirut told the AP that it had also raised concerns with Bou Habib about the ship. The Ukrainian Embassy said it was going to ask Lebanese authorities to implement a Ukrainian court order and take possession of the vessel. Lebanese government officials declined to publicly comment on the matter, pending the investigation. Lebanon is scrambling to improve ties with the West as the cash-strapped nation appeals for financial assistance to help with its economic recovery. Western countries and Gulf Arab states are irked by the political power and influence that heavily-armed Hezbollah -- a major ally of Iran and Syria -- wields in Lebanese politics. Ihor Ostash, Ukraine's ambassador, met with President Michel Aoun on Thursday, warning him that purchasing stolen goods from Russia would "harm bilateral ties," according to an embassy statement. Kyiv had previously praised Lebanon for condemning Russia for its war on Ukraine, which upset Hezbollah and allies who say they were not consulted on the matter -- as well as Russia. Ukraine had also recently promised to export flour to Lebanon, struggling with a wheat shortage and food security crisis. Russia's war on Ukraine, now in its sixth month, has prevented grain from leaving the "breadbasket of the world," making food more expensive across the globe and threatening to worsen shortages, hunger and political instability in developing countries. Together, Russia and Ukraine export nearly a third of the world's wheat and barley.

Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon issues statement on Tripoli-docked ship
Naharnet/July 30/2022
The Ukrainian Embassy in Lebanon on Friday issued a statement to clarify why it believes that flour and barley aboard a Syrian-flagged ship docked in Lebanon’s Tripoli had been “stolen” from Ukraine. “During the Russian occupation, more than 500,000 tons of grain were stolen from the occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv region,” it said. “There were attempts to transport most of these grains to Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Turkey and Syria, and attempts to transfer them to Lebanon were recorded,” the embassy added. It said that law enforcement agencies in Ukraine have “proven the involvement of 78 ships in the illegal transportation of stolen Ukrainian grain.”“At the same time, this list is incomplete and is constantly updated. The ship Laodicea appeared on this list,” the embassy added. It noted that the facts of illegal exportation of grain from Ukraine were confirmed not only by law enforcement agencies, but also within the framework of journalistic investigations, as well as by the Imagining Russian Hackers initiative. This report, https://www.russiatheftreport.com/russia-theft-report.html on page 18, refers to the Laodicea, which was registered in Feodisia on July 4, the embassy said. “Today, a Ukrainian court judge issued a decision on the seizure of the ship Laodicea with the cargo on board. Additionally, it should be noted that this vessel is sanctioned by the United States of America and subject to Caesar Act,” it added.

Geagea sarcastically: Fayyad accepted Iran's fuel, let's prepare for electricity
Naharnet/July 30/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has again commented sarcastically on the issue of the Iranian fuel grant. “Lebanese Energy Minister Walid Fayyad has agreed to accept the Iranian fuel grant. Let us await this grant and prepare for electricity in our homes,” Geagea tweeted. Geagea had on Wednesday called on the government to “agree to Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s offer to bring free Iranian fuel to operate the power plants in Lebanon.”“I’m not saying this because I believe that this will happen, but rather not to leave the Lebanese people subjected to totally baseless statements,” Geagea added. Separately, Geagea lamented Saturday that “the Higher Judicial Council has not acted, except through formalities, after more than two weeks passed since Archbishop Moussa al-Hajj’s incident happened and more than a year from the violations that were committed by Judge Fadi Akiki.”“The Higher Judicial Council is asked to shoulder its responsibilities as soon as possible to preserve what’s left of the judiciary’s image,” Geagea added.

UNHCR warns of rising tensions between Lebanese nationals and Syrian refugees
Najia Houssari/Arab News/July 30/2022
There are an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees residing in Lebanon, 900,000 of whom are registered by the UNHCR as refugees living in camps
BEIRUT: In recent weeks in Lebanon there has been a series of violent assaults and other crimes committed by Lebanese people against Syrian refugees and vice versa.
The attacks have resulted in an increase in discriminatory rhetoric targeting Syrian refugees in Lebanon, while popular support for their repatriation to Syria has also gained momentum as the situation in Syria is widely perceived to have improved sufficiently to allow the refugees to return home.
Indeed, the country’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, recently threatened to “adopt an undesirable stance toward the Western countries, by illegally repatriating the refugees (if) the international community doesn’t cooperate.”
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Lebanon has strongly defended the refugees.
In a statement, the UNHCR expressed its “grave concern over the restrictive practices and discriminatory measures activated on the basis of nationality, which affects the refugees and other marginalized groups.”
HIGHLIGHT
Lebanese officials have started to claim that Syrian refugees are partially responsible for the critical shortage of bread in the country, as they have been consuming large amounts of subsidized wheat
The UNHCR spoke of “increased tensions between different groups, especially violence against refugees, which leads to escalating violent acts on the ground in many districts and neighborhoods.”It said the economic crisis in Lebanon “is affecting everyone terribly, especially the most vulnerable,” and warned Lebanese authorities that “the ongoing support provided by the international community to Lebanon — which hosts the refugees — is a very important matter that ensures food security and other necessary needs.”
The UNHCR asked the Lebanese authorities to “ensure the rule of law and promptly stop violence and discrimination targeting those residing on Lebanese territory.”
There are an estimated 1.5 million Syrian refugees residing in Lebanon, 900,000 of whom are registered by the UNHCR as refugees living in camps. The vast majority of Syrian refugees in Lebanon are facing extremely difficult living conditions, whether they are in the camps or living and working in the country.
The situation appears to be worsening too: Lebanese officials have started to claim that Syrian refugees are partially responsible for the critical shortage of bread in the country, as they have been consuming large amounts of subsidized wheat.
Some bakeries in regions with Syrian refugees have resorted to segregation, forcing refugees to show their IDs and wait in long queues separated from other customers. When they do get served, they are only allowed a single packet of bread per family, as some Syrian refugees have been accused of sending their children to bakeries to purchase bread which they were then reselling on the black market.
Maher Al-Masri, a coordinator at the Arsal camps in Lebanon’s northern Bekaa region by the Syrian border, painted a brighter picture, saying: “We share the same food with the Lebanese in the region that is hosting us and if something bad happens to the refugees, the Lebanese residents of Arsal rush to diffuse the situation.”
But one of the camps’ officials said: “We are no longer going to bakeries to buy bread. We now buy flour and bake our bread in the camp to avoid coming into contact with the Lebanese anger.”The Lebanese Progressive Socialist Party warned that “the worrying escalation of such problems might lead to dangerous options that widen the social gaps and increase poverty and racism.”That already seems to be happening. On Friday, a Lebanese man was stabbed to death by Syrian refugees in Jnah, Beirut, after an argument. Another Lebanese man was killed on July 19 in Mirna Chalouhi. He was stabbed 19 times. They said the victim was killed by “Syrian refugees who accused him of having physical relations with one of the Syrian refugee women.”
Social-media platforms were flooded with inflammatory comments demanding the repatriation of Syrian refugees. But it later transpired that the killer was, in fact, Lebanese and a friend of the deceased, whom he reportedly murdered because of a family dispute.
On July 21, a 13-year-old Syrian boy, Khaled Hammoud Al-Saleh, was killed after being assaulted by a Lebanese man and his sons in the southern region of Sarafand.
On July 24, a camp in the northern Lebanese region of Akkar was set on fire by family members of 43-year-old Diab Khouweilid, a father of seven, whose body was discovered on the seashore in Qlayaat after he had been missing for two days. His family suspected that one or more of the camp’s residents had information about Khouweilid’s death. The fire affected 85 of the camp’s 90 tents and the camp’s inhabitants were forced to leave to prevent further violence. Most of them lost their belongings.
Lebanon’s caretaker minister of the displaced, Issam Charafeddine, is set to visit Damascus to discuss the plan to repatriate Syrian refugees. Charafeddine said the plan is to repatriate 15,000 refugees every month, despite warnings from international organizations against coercive repatriation after reports of crimes against a number of repatriated refugees. Syrian activists for refugees in Lebanon, said in a statement: “Refugees in host regions avoid tensions. Syrian refugees are suffering from the economic crisis in Lebanon, similar to the Lebanese. The issue of repatriation awaits practical solutions. We hear of calls and statements made by Lebanese officials, but we haven’t been notified of anything yet by the UNHCR.”

Hezbollah is no Resistance..Its Terrorist Record Speaks for Itself
Nadim Bustani / LCCC/July 30/ 2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/110830/nadim-bustani-hezbollah-is-no-resistance-its-terrorist-record-speaks-for-itself/
According to international law, the legitimacy of military resistance against foreign occupation is justified by the right to self-determination. Which means that if the people are in a position to implement their will within the constitutional authority of the state, the resistance posture is negated, and the conflict becomes a state of war between two states.
Hezbollah cannot claim to be a resistance while at the same time fully participating in the political process in Lebanon and being represented in the institutions of the state, let alone when it has seized control of most levers of power in the country. Furthermore, if a truce extends beyond a year, the right to resistance is greatly diminished despite the persistence of the occupation, whereby the cessation of military activities which has firmly taken hold between Lebanon and Israel from 2006 to date strips the resistance of its justifications.
Under international law, the organization must not undertake any military actions whose immediate goal is not to liberate occupied land from foreign forces, and it should be involved in internal fighting. Accordingly, Hezbollah’s fighting in Yemen and Syria, and earlier in the fighting in Beirut on May 7, 2008, or even its participation in the Yugoslavia War, deals a blunt blow to its character as a resistance.
Other critical international law principles for classifying a movement as a resistance stipulate that the policies of such a movement should not include the a priori threat of military action, so that the threat does not itself become the factor leading to an outbreak of war or causing the military occupation. The movement’s combat actions are also prohibited from being retaliatory actions for previous strikes because military reactions have nothing to do with resistance, yet these characteristics have become Hezbollah’s entrenched policy in the very words of its secretary general.
Among these fundamental principles is the obligation on the part of the organization not to exploit the guarantees provided by the laws of war. In particular, the organization is prohibited from using human shields such as taking advantage of hospitals, schools, and other civilian facilities as shelters for the protection of its soldiers and assets, which is what Hezbollah violates by continuing to concentrate its military activity in the heart of residential areas, building its depots in high-density populated areas, and seeking to camouflage itself in them.
Perhaps the most fundamental of these rules is banning the targeting of the hostile party’s civilians under any circumstance. This prohibition includes randomly firing shells and missiles onto cities, taking hostages, killing war prisoners, practicing torture, targeting diplomatic missions, peacekeeping, or truce enforcement troops. The organization must also permanently abide by all the provisions of the international laws of war, which in Hezbollah’s case is beyond discussion because since its inception it has never distinguished between civilian and military targets during combat, much as it has never spared diplomatic missions or peacekeeping forces, not to forget its public claim of responsibility for taking hostages and killing them.
In sum, an organization seeking to be classified as a resistance must adhere to international treaties and conventions, particularly those signed by the country to which the organization belongs, and here we refer to the 1949 Truce Agreement between Lebanon and Israel.
Hezbollah claims for itself the mantle of a national resistance against the Israeli occupation, while it does not fulfill the binding criteria cited above. The question is not connected to the Israeli withdrawal of 2000 as some people argue that Hezbollah ceased to be classified as a resistance movement after that withdrawal. The fact is, however, that Hezbollah has since its inception being systematically involved in military activities violating the tenets of this classification, and indeed making Hezbollah fitting the classification of a terrorist organization.
Of these military activities:
The bombing of the US Embassy in April 1983 in Beirut, killing 63 victims including 32 Lebanese nationals;
The bombing of the headquarters of the Multi-National Force (MNF) in October 1983 in which 346 people lost their lives, when these troops were tasked not with a combat mission but with the humanitarian peacekeeping mission to separate combatants, namely to secure the exit of the Palestinian fighters and protect the civilians in the camps, with the agreement of the Lebanese state. This bombing of the MNF troops is widely known as the bombing of the US Marines headquarters near Beirut Airport, and the bombing of the French paratroopers in their Drakkar compound;
The bombing of the US Embassy in September 1984, killing 23 people the majority of whom were Lebanese citizens following up on their visa applications;
The kidnappings, assassinations, and torture of civilians, diplomats, journalists, and Christian clergymen throughout the 1980s, reaching a total of 104 kidnapped individuals, of whom 8 were killed, including for example two presidents of American University of Beirut, David Dodge and Malcom Kerr;
The bombings in Kuwait City in December 1983 that targeted oil facilities, the embassies of the United States and France, the airport, and the workers’ residences of an American company. These attacks killed 5 victims;
The hijacking of a Kuwaiti Airlines flight in December 1984 with its 95 passengers or whom two were killed;
The attempted assassination of the Emir of Kuwait by a suicide operative who targeted his convoy in May 1985, in which three people were killed and Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabbah suffered injuries;
The hijacking to Beirut Airport of TWA Flight 847 a few minutes after its takeoff from Athens in June 1985. Among the 147 passengers on board, a retired US Navy diver, Dean Stethem, was killed and his body dumped on the Beirut airport tarmac, and the renowned singer Demis Roussos;
The hijacking of a Kuwaiti Airlines flight in April 1988 with 112 passengers on board, two of whom were killed; Backing the Palestinian organizations in the War of the Camps, and direct involvement in the Iqlim Al-Touffah war and the battles that followed it against the Amal organization, which resulted in the death of upwards of 2,500 people over three years between 1988 and 1990; Hezbollah is also responsible for liquidating many leaders of the National Movement in the late 1980s, including among others Mahdi Amel and Hussein Mroueh;
The bombing of the Israeli Embassy in Argentina in March 1992 in which 29 people, a majority of whom children, were killed when their school was hit by the explosion; then the bombing of the Jewish Cultural Center in Argentina in July 1994 in which 85 people lost their lives.
Participate in the bombings of the Al-Khobar Residential Compound in Saudi Arabia in June 1996, which killed 19 people.
Dispatching dozens of fighters, including the leader in Hezbollah, Ali Fayyad, to fight alongside the Bosnian militias in the civil war in Yugoslavia between 1992 and 1995.
Bombing of a tourist bus carrying Jewish passengers in the region of Bourgas in Bulgaria in July 2012. Six people were killed in the attack.
Preparing explosive devices, setting up munitions depots and security networks in countries like Thailand, Germany, Britain, France, Egypt, Kuwait, Cyprus, the US, and Brazil.
Storing munitions in populated areas, some of which has exploded causing civilian deaths in the regions of Shahabiya (2004), Khirbit Selem (2009), Tayr Harfa (2012), Nabi Sheet (2012), and Ayn Cana (2020).
A Hezbollah leader by the name of Saleem Ayyash has been convicted of participating in the assassination of Rafik Hariri. Ayyash is also accused in four other assassination cases and terrorist operations, cases which are pending investigations by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon at the Hague, and in the May 7, 2008, military occupation of the city Beirut and for launching attacks against civilians in Beirut, Shwayfat and other localities in which 71 people were killed, 23 of them civilians.
Organizing international smuggling and money laundering networks according to reports by the FATF organization, which the Lebanese Parliament has approved in Law 44/2015 pertaining to anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing;
Participating in the Syrian and Yemeni wars since 2012 and to date, with responsibility for the death of thousands of civilians and military personnel;
Governing Hezbollah’s fighting Israel or its truce-like appeasement of it, like all its other military activities, is a radical Islamic ideology which doesn’t really care for the existence of occupied territories or for transgressions against national sovereignty or for preserving the people’s freedom and interests. Rather, its priority is to secure the success of the Islamic revolution around the world. This ideology is under the orders of the Jurisprudent Ruler who alone has the power to interpret it and adapt it to the secular conditions, most notably declaring and conducting Holy War or Jihad. In other words, he holds the decision of war or peace according to the book published by Hezbollah’s deputy Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, “Hezbollah, the Method … the Experience… the Future”.
More ominous is the fact that Hezbollah defines itself as the “Islamic Resistance in Lebanon”, which means that its fight is governed by a defense of Islam (according to its ideology) and not a defense of Lebanon. Even its flag is copied in near complete identity from the flag of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, which negates that such an organization aims to achieve Lebanon’s national interest.
Hezbollah doesn’t deny its organic and ideological ties with the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the question is not merely one of religious liberties and subordination to a religious authority, as is the case with Catholics and their relationship with the Vatican. This is because the personal status (subject to religious laws in Lebanon) loses its sway in cultural matters and in the family status, and does not give the right to assemble armies and subordinate them to a non-constitutional authority. Hezbollah’s Secretary General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has admitted this much publicly when he literally said, “I am proud to be a soldier in the party of the Jurisprudent Ruler, and as such we declare that our leadership, our will, the rule of our affairs, the decision of our war and our peace is in the hands of the Jurisprudent Ruler”.
Accordingly, it is urgent to categorically stop qualifying Hezbollah as a “national resistance”, to cease granting its military organization that is operating outside the provisions of Lebanese laws any justifications, neither before nor after the Israeli Army’s withdrawal, since Hezbollah has never had the attributes of a legitimate resistance. Rather, its activities fit perfectly in the terrorism category.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 30-31/2022
Pope Francis floats possibility of 'stepping aside'
Agence France Presse/July 30/2022
Pope Francis said Saturday he needed to slow down, telling reporters after a six-day Canada trip he could no longer maintain his hectic international travel schedule -- while acknowledging he could also retire. "I don't think I can go at the same pace as I used to travel," the 85-year-old pope, who is suffering from knee pain and relied on a wheelchair during his Canada visit, told reporters on his papal plane. "I think that at my age and with this (knee) limitation, I have to save myself a little bit to be able to serve the Church. Or, alternatively, to think about the possibility of stepping aside."

Tehran Insists on Keeping Nuclear Talks, Washington Ready for All Scenarios
London - Adil al-Salmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian is insisting on Tehran’s demand to maintain the talks aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement, while the United States questioned the Iranian authorities’ will to accept a draft agreement recently amended by European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell, who has been leading the diplomatic process since April. Iranian media quoted Abdollahian as saying during an event that Iran’s diplomatic corps “will continue negotiations to achieve the lifting of sanctions, but we want to reach a good, strong and sustainable agreement.”
But the Iranian minister did not touch on Tehran’s position on the new European draft, although he called Borrell on Wednesday and welcomed efforts to continue diplomacy and negotiations. Borrell revealed on Tuesday that he had submitted a draft settlement, calling on Tehran and Washington to accept it to avoid a “serious crisis.”“I have now put on the table a text that addresses, in precise detail, the sanctions lifting as well as the nuclear steps needed to restore the JCPOA,” he wrote in an article in the Financial Times. “After 15 months of intense, constructive negotiations in Vienna and countless interactions with the JCPOA participants and the US, I have concluded that the space for additional significant compromises has been exhausted,” he added.The French presidency said on Thursday that there was still plenty of time to save the nuclear agreement, adding that the ball was in Tehran’s court.
In the same context, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said, in a press briefing, that Tehran has not shown the political will during the past months to overcome the impasse in the talks aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement. He stressed that the US administration was preparing for various scenarios in the negotiation process and was studying the draft proposed by the EU foreign policy chief. “We’ve been in touch with our European allies. We continue to remain in close contact with our P5+1 partners in this regard, including, of course, our European allies in this. We are reviewing the draft understanding. We plan to do so swiftly. We’ll share any reactions we have with the EU directly,” he stated. Price also noted that Washington was considering equally the various scenarios in the event of failure to reach an agreement to revive the agreement concluded in 2015. He told the reporters: “What we have not seen from Iran, whether in March or in the ensuing months, is an indication from them that they are prepared to make that political decision necessary to return to compliance with the JCPOA. That’s why we’ve continued to prepare equally for scenarios where we have a JCPOA, scenarios in which we don’t have a JCPOA.”

Iran Warns Taliban on its Water Rights from Helmand River
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian warned his counterpart in the Taliban that their relations would be affected if the group does not eliminate the hurdles to Tehran’s water rights from the Helmand River. Amir Abdollahian made the comments during a phone conversation on Thursday with Amir Khan Muttaqi, the acting Afghan foreign minister. He said a high-ranking delegation from Iran's Ministry of Energy will visit Afghanistan to work on removing obstacles that prevent Iran from drawing water directly from the Helmand River. Amir Abdollahian said that Kabul's decision to permit Tehran to use its water right would be an essential indicator of the Afghan government's adherence to its commitments to international law. He pointed to the southeastern Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan’s dependence on the river’s water, saying if the issue was not “expeditiously and seriously” resolved, it would have an adverse effect on the other areas of cooperation between the two countries. The development of many hydroelectric projects on the river, most notably the Kamal Khan dam in Nimrouz province and the Kajaki dam located 160 kilometers northwest of Kandahar province, has exacerbated the situation. On Wednesday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi urged serious action on Iran's water rights.

IHR: Iran Executes Three Women In Single Day
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Iran this week executed three women in the space of a single day, all on charges of murdering their husbands, an NGO said on Friday. There has been growing concern over the increasing number of women being hanged in Iran as the country sees a surge in executions. Many killed husbands who were abusive or they married as child brides or even relatives, AFP reported activists as saying, Norway-based Iran Human Rights (IHR) said that on July 27 three women were executed in different prisons for murdering their husbands in separate cases, meaning at least 10 women have now been executed by Iran in 2022. Senobar Jalali, an Afghan national, was executed in a prison outside Tehran, it said. Meanwhile Soheila Abedi, who had married her husband when aged just 15, was hanged in a prison in the city of Sanandaj in western Iran. She had committed the murder 10 years after their marriage and was convicted in 2015, IHR said. Faranak Beheshti, who had been convicted around five years ago for the murder of her husband, was executed in the prison in the northwestern city of Urmia, it said. Activists argue that Iran's laws are stacked against women, who do not have the right to unilaterally demand a divorce, even in cases of domestic violence and abuse. A report by IHR published in October last year said that at least 164 women were executed between 2010 and October 2021. But activists are alarmed by a surge in executions in Iran this year, coinciding with the rise of former judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi to the presidency in 2021 and protests over an economic crisis. At least 306 people have been executed so far in Iran in 2022, according to a count by IHR. Washington-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center for Human Rights in Iran and London-based Amnesty International said Wednesday that Iran is carrying out executions at a "horrifying pace" in an "abhorrent assault" on the right to life. Those arrested in recent weeks in a crackdown against critical voices include the director Mohammad Rasoulof, whose lacerating film "There is No Evil" about the effects of the use of the death penalty in Iran won the Golden Bear at the 2020 Berlin Film Festival.

Iran Says it Arrested Swedish Citizen on Espionage Charges
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Iran’s intelligence ministry said on Saturday that it had arrested a Swedish citizen on espionage charges, the official IRNA news agency reported without naming the person detained. It was not clear if the report was referring to the same individual the Swedish foreign ministry said in May had been detained in Iran. Iran did not report that arrest, Reuters said. The Swedish ministry said at the time that a Swedish man had been arrested. "The intelligence ministry announced that a citizen of the Kingdom of Sweden was arrested on espionage charges," IRNA quoted a ministry statement.

Iraqi Tourists Killed by Floods in Northeast Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Flash floods triggered by heavy rains killed seven Iraqi tourists in northeastern Iran on Saturday, Iranian state media reported, the latest in rising casualty tolls as the downpours continue to lash the country. The official IRNA news agency said the tourists were part of a 13-member group of Iraqis visiting Iran. They were traveling in a crammed station wagon on a road near the city of Mashhad, some 900 kilometers (560 miles), north of the capital Tehran, when a flash flood swept their car away. Among the fatalities were five women and the group's Iranian driver. Three Iraqis were missing while the other passengers managed to get to safety, The Associated Press reported. About 2 million Iraqis visit Iran every year. Also Saturday, Iranian authorities raised the death toll from landslides and flash floods that engulfed the country since Thursday to 61 as eight more bodied were retrieved. It said at least 32 people are still missing. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visited a rescue operation center in one of the stricken villages northeast of Tehran, promising more help for the area. There were fears the death toll could rise even further as more bodies are being uncovered as the rains abate. Thousands have been transferred from remote areas to safer places. Last Saturday, flash floods in Iran’s drought-stricken southern Fars province killed at least 22 people and affected about a dozen villages in the province. Authorities have warned about heavy rains and possible floods. This week's storm is the deadliest among Iran's rain-related incidents in the last decade. In 2019, a flashflood killed at least 21 people in the southern city of Shiraz, and two years earlier, a similar storm claimed 48 lives in northwestern Iran. However, mudslides in northern Iran in 2001 and in Tehran in 1987 killed 500 and 300 people, respectively. Authorities have blamed the high death tolls on a wide disregard of safety measures by people who venture out in the storms while critics cite mismanagement in construction projects as well as late warnings as other causes.

Sadr’s Supporters Breach Parliament Building in Baghdad's Green Zone Again
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Thousands of supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Saturday stormed Baghdad's fortified government zone and breached Iraq's parliament, the second time in a week, to protest the government formation efforts led by Iran-backed groups. Protesters rallied by Sadr and his social-political Sadrist Movement tore down concrete barriers and entered the Green Zone, which houses government buildings and foreign missions, heading for Iraq's parliament, a Reuters witness said. Iraqi security forces used tear gas and stun grenades to try to repel the demonstrators and caused several injuries witnessed by journalists for The Associated Press. An expected parliament session did not take place and there were no lawmakers in the hall. Iraq's Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi directed security forces to protect demonstrators and asked them to keep their protest peaceful, according to a statement. Saturday's scenes followed similar protests on Wednesday, although this time several protesters and police officers were hurt. Sadr's party came first in a general election in October but he withdrew his lawmakers from parliament when he failed to form a government which excluded his Shiite rivals, mostly groups backed by Iran. Sadr has since made good on threats to stir up popular unrest if parliament tries to approve a government he does not like, saying it must be free of foreign influence and the corruption that has plagued Iraq for decades. The Sadrists chanted against Sadr's political rivals who are now trying to form a government. Iraq has been without a president and prime minister for a record period because of the deadlock.

Media War Deepens Division Among Muslim Brotherhood’s Foreign Fronts
Cairo - Waleed Abdulrahman/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
Muslim Brotherhood of foreign fronts exchanged accusations after the conflict arose between the “Istanbul Front” led by former Sec-Gen Mahmoud Hussein and the “London Front” led by acting leader Ibrahim Munir. The crisis heightened after the London Front formed a new Shura Council, dismissing six members of the Istanbul Shura, including Hussein himself. The new council replaced the one in Istanbul. It was elected in the presence of officials residing in Turkey and affiliated with the Istanbul Front and several leaders living in European countries. In response, the Istanbul Front issued a statement claiming that “Munir’s front weakens and divides the Brotherhood,” accusing it of using social media to publish false allegations and information. The Brotherhood's Guidance Office in London recently ignited the dispute after it called upon the "Istanbul Front" to offer allegiance to Munir as the acting leader. The Istanbul Shura Council formed the "Acting Committee of the General Shura" led by Mustafa Tolba and dismissed Munir from his position. In response, the “London Front” dismissed Tolba, declaring in a statement that it “did not recognize the decisions of the Istanbul Front or the so-called General Shura Council.”
It asserted that “the organization’s legitimacy is represented by Munir only, and that any assignment to Tolba requires accountability,” adding that the committee in question is invalid. Istanbul Front responded in a statement confirming its adherence to the General Shura Council of the organization in Istanbul, calling on all its members to “abide by the decisions of the Shura.”It stressed that “Mustafa Tolba will remain in his position,” rejecting Munir’s decision to dismiss him. Notably, Munir previously dissolved the Administrative Office for Organization Affairs in Turkey and dismissed Hussein and others for creating the crisis by announcing the "Hussein Group" more than once to dismiss the current leader. Expert in the affairs of fundamentalist movements in Egypt, Ahmed Zaghloul said that the two fronts are in conflict now amid strong divisions, with each side claiming legitimacy.
Zaghloul told Asharq Al-Awsat that the only option for the Brotherhood abroad is to exchange accusations through statements to settle organizational issues and manage personal differences. Muslim Brotherhood no longer has any political project, especially with its issues with several countries and losing all power and influence, stated Zaghloul, adding that both groups have no choice but to mobilize the media. Zaghloul believes this would continue in the coming period, pointing out that “it has been going on for a while,” noting that the organization is now weak without any political project.

US Congress Takes Action Against Syria’s Captagon
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 30 July, 2022
The House Foreign Affairs Committee has approved a draft resolution that lays out a US strategy to disrupt and dismantle narcotics production and trafficking and affiliated networks linked to the Assad regime in Syria. The draft, submitted by bipartisan lawmakers, says the Captagon trade linked to the Assad regime is a “transnational security threat" and calls on the administration to develop and implement a strategy "to deny, degrade, and dismantle Assad-linked narcotics production and trafficking networks."The draft calls on the White House to submit the strategy to Congress for review within a period not exceeding 180 days from its approval, if it includes support to regional allies who receive large quantities of Captagon during their smuggling operations. The strategy includes a public campaign to highlight the Assad regime's relationship with illicit drug trafficking and a list of countries that receive large shipments of Captagon, in addition to evaluating the capabilities of these countries to stop smuggling operations. Congress is increasing pressure on the Biden administration to address the narcotics issue. The two top Republicans in the Congressional Foreign Relations Committees called on the White House to submit a detailed report highlighting the Syrian president's role in trafficking, noting the repercussions of the issue on regional stability. Lead Republican Mike McCaul and Senator Jim Risch sent a letter to Secretary Antony Blinken warning that Jordan is increasingly threatened by the flow of Captagon across its border and has had several dangerous skirmishes with drug traffickers on its border with Syria. The letter warned that Saudi Arabia is also “under assault from flows of Syrian Captagon” and “has been forced to increase security resources for interdiction efforts.”A group of Democratic and Republican lawmakers had called the US administration last week to include Syria as “major illicit drug producing countries” or “major drug-transit countries.”In a letter they wrote to Blinken, the legislators urged the ministry to assess the activities carried out by the Syrian regime in the field of drug manufacturing and trafficking to determine its category. “In addition to its gross human rights violations and regularly committing war crimes against his own people, the Assad regime in Syria has now become a narco-state. The production and trade of the drug, Captagon, is not only a critical financial lifeline to Assad but it cripples local populations, serves to undermine families and local communities, and finances Iran-backed groups in the region.” The lawmakers called on the US government to do all it could to disrupt the industrial level of drug production in Syria. “This includes getting my bill for an interagency strategy signed into law and the Department of State determining that Syria is a major drug manufacturing and transit country. If we do not act, then we risk permitting the narco-state of Assad to become a permanent fixture in the region,” they concluded.

Ukraine says scores of Russian troops were killed in Kherson
Reuters/Jul 30, 2022
Ukrainian military aims to isolate Russia's forces on the western bank of the Dnipro river in counter-offensive
Ukraine's military said on Saturday it had killed scores of Russian soldiers and destroyed two ammunition dumps in fighting in the Kherson region, the focus of Kyiv's counter-offensive in the south and a link in Russian supply lines.
Rail traffic to Kherson over the Dnipro River was cut, the military's southern command claimed, potentially further isolating Russia's forces west of the river from supplies in occupied Crimea and the east. Ukraine used western-supplied long-range missile systems to damage three bridges across the Dnipro in recent weeks, cutting off Kherson city and, according to an assessment by British defence officials, leaving Russia's 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the river vulnerable. “As a result of fire establishing control over the main transport links in occupied territory, it has been established that traffic over the rail bridge crossing the Dnipro is not possible,” Ukraine's Southern Command said. It said more than 100 Russian soldiers and seven tanks had been destroyed in fighting on Friday around Kherson, the first major town captured by the Russian forces following their February 24 invasion.
Yuri Sobolevsky, the first deputy head of the Kherson regional council, told residents to stay from away from Russian ammunition dumps. “The Ukrainian army is pouring it on against the Russians and this is only the beginning,” Mr Sobolevsky wrote on the Telegram app.
Dmytro Butriy, the pro-Ukrainian governor of Kherson region, said Berislav district was particularly hard hit. Berislav is across the river north-west of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. “In some villages, not a single home has been left intact, all infrastructure has been destroyed, people are living in cellars,” Mr Butriy wrote on Telegram. Officials from the Russian-appointed administration running the Kherson region this week rejected western and Ukrainian assessments of the situation.
Britain's Ministry of Defence said on Saturday that Russia was likely to have built two pontoon bridges and a ferry system to compensate for bridges damaged by Ukrainian strikes. Russian-installed authorities in occupied territories in southern Ukraine were possibly preparing to hold referendums on joining Russia later this year, and were “likely coercing the population into disclosing personal details in order to compose voting registers,” the MoD claimed. The two sides also traded accusations on Friday over a missile strike or explosion that appeared to have killed dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war in eastern Donetsk province. Forty prisoners were killed and 75 wounded at the prison in the frontline town of Olenivka held by Moscow-backed separatists, Russia's Ministry of Defence said. A representative for the separatists put the death toll at 53 and accused Kyiv of hitting the prison with US-made Himars rockets.
Ukraine's armed forces denied responsibility, saying Russian artillery had hit the prison to hide the mistreatment of those held there.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the shelling of a prison was a “deliberate Russian war crime”. “Today, I received information about the attack by the occupiers on Olenivka (the prison's location), in the Donetsk region. It is a deliberate Russian war crime, a deliberate mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war. More than 50 dead,” he said in his daily address. Reuters TV showed the remains of a cavernous burned-out building filled with metal beds, some with charred bodies lying on them while other bodies were lined up on military stretchers or on the ground outside.
Shell fragments had been laid out on a blue metal bench. It was not possible to detect any identifying markings and it was not clear where the fragments had been collected.
The International Committee of the Red Cross said it was seeking access to the site and had offered to help evacuate the wounded.
Ukraine has accused Russia of brutality against civilians since its invasion and said it has identified more than 10,000 possible war crimes. Russia denies attacking civilians.
Meanwhile, the US and Russian top diplomats discussed a United Nations-brokered deal to restart shipping grain from Ukraine and ease a worldwide food crisis in their first phone call since Russia attacked Ukraine in what it calls a “special military operation”.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Washington was not living up to promises regarding the exemption of food from sanctions, the Foreign Ministry said. A Russian account of the phone call quoted Mr Lavrov as telling Mr Blinken that Russia would achieve all the goals of its operation, and that western arms supplies to Ukraine would only drag out the conflict. Mr Blinken warned Mr Lavrov about any Russian territorial claims during its war in Ukraine. “The world will not recognise annexations. We will impose additional significant costs on Russia if it moves forward with its plans,” he said.

Ukraine’s Push to Take Back This City Could Make or Break the War
Shannon Vavra/The Daily Beast./ July 30/2022
The war in Ukraine could be breaking out into a new phase in the coming days, as Ukrainian forces gear up to launch a make-or-break counteroffensive against Kherson, a key city which Russian forces have occupied since the early days of the war.
Ukrainian forces have been preparing for weeks to to run an attack on Kherson, a key city in the south, close to Russia’s strongholds. The counteroffensive is “gathering momentum,” according to a British intelligence analysis issued Thursday.
But some American officials and lawmakers are hesitant to say the Ukrainian forces are guaranteed a victory if they go all in now.
Ukrainian forces have been preparing for a counteroffensive for some time now. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last week his forces have been advancing towards Kherson “step by step.” Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk urged civilians to evacuate the region to avoid the offensive earlier this month.
And an adviser to Kherson’s government, Serhiy Khlan, has suggested that Kherson will definitely be liberated by September. The strategically important city is just a couple of hours drive from the Crimean peninsula which was seized by Russia way back in 2014.
Creating a Russian stranglehold across the south of the country and wrecking Ukraine’s economy by cutting off access to the Black Sea as well as the Sea of Azov has been a key goal of Putin’s invasion. That twisted dream would be all but destroyed if Ukraine can re-take Kherson. But a Ukrainian success might hinge on western aid supplies, which Ukrainian officials say can’t come fast enough—and failing in Kherson would be a devastating loss for Ukraine. But getting ahead of our skis would not be appropriate in advance of the assault—so much remains to be seen on the battlefield, warned Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-MA). “There’s always a fog of war,” Auchincloss, who has previously commanded infantry in Afghanistan, told The Daily Beast. “You can never predict what happens after first contact.”Concerns abound about whether the Ukrainian forces are adequately prepared to take on the Russians in Kherson.
Ukrainian officials have said they are going through between 5,000 and 6,000 rounds of artillery ammunition each day. Keeping up with that burn rate will change once the counteroffensive begins, and Ukraine might need three or four times that, according to The New York Times. Russian Troops Executed One of Their Own for Helping Ukrainian Civilians—Then Covered It Up, Report Says
Ukraine’s offensive weapons supply and preparation will be key to their ability to take back Kherson, too. But current preparation might not be enough, by some lawmakers’ count. As Ukrainians eye a counteroffensive, the Biden Administration should step up its efforts to provide more High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and to provide air support, such as fighter jets, to Ukraine that could be pivotal in securing a win, warned Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA). “The United States and our NATO allies and other democracies have provided tremendous support to the Ukrainian people—and I believe we need to provide more,” Lieu, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told The Daily Beast. “If we can give Ukraine additional advanced weapons such as advanced aircraft, and try to increase Ukraine’s air power, I think that will be immensely helpful to Ukraine.”
Lieu said he continues to press the administration to follow through on promises to consider sending fighter jets to Ukraine.
“Hopefully they can do that sooner rather than later,” Lieu said, referring to the Biden Administration.
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA), a member of the House Intelligence Committee, indicated that he is tracking the morale of Ukrainian fighters, and suggested that morale is in good shape.
“Morale remains high,” Swalwell said. “That’s the most important factor.”
But Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksi Reznikov, has discussed the need to raise up a million man-strong army to take back southern territory Russian forces have seized.
And Ukrainian leadership openly admit they still need more help to properly back their assault plans. Ukrainian political leaders have been pushing the United States’ military outpost in Germany to provide more equipment in recent days more quickly, according to The New York Times. The U.S. Defense Department says it’s working to keep up with demand, as Ukrainians need more reinforcements to be able to attack Russians in Ukrainian territory. “We understand the urgency, and we’re pushing hard to maintain and intensify the momentum of donations,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week.
Even so, Russia appears to be bolstering its defenses, in what appears to be a shift in strategy. In recent hours, amid warnings that Ukraine is preparing an offensive, Russia has already been redeploying forces to defend the south, according to Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
There are, however, some indications Russia is down for the count, at least for now. Russia hasn’t made any major gains since taking Lysychansk earlier this month. Russian forces in Kherson are "virtually cut off" from other Russian-occupied territories, according to the British intelligence analysis. Just Wednesday, Ukrainian forces used American-supplied HIMARS to bomb Antonivskyi Bridge, a key bridge over the Dnipro river by Kherson which has been crucial to Russian supply routes, said Kirill Stremousov, the deputy chief of the Russian administration for the Kherson region.
And Russia, as in the early days of the war, is not doing well in terms of supplying the war in Ukraine, according to John Kirby, a White House National Security Council coordinator.
“His own defense-industrial base is having a hard time keeping up with his unprovoked war in Ukraine,” Kirby told reporters last week.
And although concerns remain that Russia is prepared to keep the fight grinding on, the Russian military doesn’t appear prepared to keep up training and equipment to levels necessary for decisive wins, according to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
“Russia can probably mobilize men but they cannot mobilize well-trained men and well-equipped men,” Gallego, a member of the House Armed Services Committee, told The Daily Beast. “That puts Ukraine in a better position. I think its military probably is now on par or even better when it comes [to] their training with Russia.”
Assessments from the U.S. intelligence community show that Russian forces have been significantly depleted since the war began. While estimates from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have pinned Russia’s troop losses at about 40,000, U.S. intelligence has pegged Putin’s troop losses at close to 75,000 since the war broke out in February, according to Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), a member of the House Armed Services Committee.
And MI6 chief Richard Moore said last week at the Aspen security conference that the U.K. intelligence agency believes Russia will tire out in the coming weeks due a manpower shortage. All of the hurdles the Russian military is facing now, coupled with key weapons aid and intelligence support from the United States—which so far has helped Ukrainian forces go after Russian ammunition depots and other targets precisely—could lay the groundwork for a difficult but successful fight ahead for the Ukrainians.
“I have confidence that we are providing them with the weapons… and intelligence support that they need to precisely target Russian command and control and ammunition nodes,” Auchincloss said.

Sadr supporters occupy Iraq parliament, again
Agence France Presse/July 30/2022
Supporters of powerful Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr penetrated Baghdad's heavily fortified "Green Zone" and occupied parliament on Saturday in a deepening political crisis. It is the second time in days that Sadr supporters have forced their way in to the legislative chamber, months after elections that failed to lead to formation of a government. Demonstrators waved Iraqi flags and pictures of the cleric inside the legislature, an AFP photographer said. They entered after thousands of protesters had massed at the end of a bridge leading to the Green Zone before dozens tore down concrete barriers protecting it and ran inside, the photographer reported. Security forces had fired tear gas near an entrance to the district, home to foreign embassies and other government buildings as well as parliament. Some protesters on the bridge were injured and carried off by their fellow demonstrators. "All the people are with you Sayyed Moqtada," the protesters chanted, using his title as a descendant of the Prophet Mohammed. Sadr's bloc emerged from elections in October as the biggest parliamentary faction, but was still far short of a majority and, 10 months on, deadlock persists over the establishment of a new government.
Supporters of the populist Shiite cleric oppose the recently announced candidacy of Mohammed al-Sudani, a former minister and ex-provincial governor, who is the pro-Iran Coordination Framework's pick for premier. The protests are the latest challenge for oil-rich Iraq, which remains mired in a political and a socio-economic crisis despite elevated global crude prices. Saturday's demonstration comes three days after crowds of Sadr supporters breached the Green Zone despite volleys of tear gas fire from the police. They occupied the parliament building, singing, dancing and taking selfies before leaving two hours later but only after Sadr told them to leave.
'Revolution' -
On Saturday, security forces shut off roads in the capital leading to the Green Zone with massive blocks of concrete. "We are here for a revolution," said protester Haydar al-Lami. "We don't want the corrupt; we don't want those who have been in power to return... since 2003, they have only brought us harm." By convention, the post of prime minister goes to a leader from Iraq's Shiite majority. Sadr, a former militia leader, had initially supported the idea of a majority government. That would have sent his Shiite adversaries from the pro-Iran Coordination Framework into opposition. The Coordination Framework draws lawmakers from former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki's party and the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, the political arm of the Shiite-led former paramilitary group Hashed al-Shaabi. But last month Sadr's 73 lawmakers quit in a move seen as seeking to pressure his rivals to fast-track the establishment of a government. Sixty-four new lawmakers were sworn in later in June, making the pro-Iran bloc the largest in parliament. That triggered the fury of Sadr's supporters, who according to a security source also ransacked the Baghdad office of Maliki's Daawa party on Friday night, as well as that of the Hikma movement of Ammar al-Hakim which is a part of the Coordination Framework. "We would have liked them to wait until the government was formed to evaluate its performance, to give it a chance and to challenge it if it is not," Hakim said in a recent interview with BBC Arabic. "The Sadrist movement has a problem with the idea that the Coordination Framework will form a government," he said. "If it doesn't turn out to be Sudani and a second or third candidate is nominated, they would still object," he said.

Russia suspends gas supplies to Latvia
Agence France Presse/July 30/2022
Russian energy giant Gazprom Saturday suspended gas supplies to Latvia following tensions between Moscow and the West over the conflict in Ukraine and sweeping European and US sanctions against Russia. The declaration came a day after Moscow and Kyiv accused each other of bombing a jail holding Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian-held territory, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying more than 50 were killed and calling the attack a war crime. "Today, Gazprom suspended its gas supplies to Latvia... due to violations of the conditions" of purchase, the company said on Telegram. Gazprom drastically cut gas deliveries to Europe via the Nord Stream pipeline on Wednesday to about 20 percent of its capacity. The Russian state-run company had earlier announced it would choke supply to 33 million cubic meters a day -- half the amount it has been delivering since service resumed last week after 10 days of maintenance work. EU states have accused Russia of squeezing supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions over Moscow's intervention in Ukraine. Gazprom cited the halted operation of one of the last two operating turbines for the pipeline due to the "technical condition of the engine".
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has blamed EU sanctions for the limited supply. "Technical pumping capacities are down, more restricted. Why? Because the process of maintaining technical devices is made extremely difficult by the sanctions adopted by Europe," Peskov said. "Gazprom was and remains a reliable guarantor of its obligations... but it can't guarantee the pumping of gas if the imported devices cannot be maintained because of European sanctions," he said.
- Russian 'blackmail' -
The European Union this week agreed a plan to reduce gas consumption in solidarity with Germany, where the Nord Stream pipeline runs to, warning of Russian "blackmail". Russia's defense ministry on Friday accused Ukraine of striking a prison in Russian-held territory with US-supplied long-range missiles, in an "egregious provocation" designed to stop captured soldiers from surrendering. It said the dead included Ukrainian forces who had surrendered after weeks of fighting off Russia's brutal bombardment of the sprawling Azovstal steelworks in the port city of Mariupol. Zelensky laid the blame squarely on Russia. "This was a deliberate Russian war crime, a deliberate mass murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war," Zelensky said in his daily address to the nation late Friday. "Over 50 are dead."Zelensky said an agreement for the Azovstal fighters to lay down their arms, brokered by the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross, included guarantees for their health and safety and called on those two organizations to intervene, as guarantors. Zelensky also urged the international community, especially the United States, to have Russia officially declared as a state sponsor of terrorism. "A decision is needed, needed right now," he said. In a sign of Washington's continued support of Kyiv, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov for the first time since the beginning of the conflict Friday, urging Moscow against annexing any more Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian forces.
- U.S. warning -
"It was very important that the Russians hear directly from us that that will not be accepted -- and not only will it not be accepted, it will result in additional significant costs being imposed upon Russia if it follows through," Blinken told reporters in Washington.
Zelensky on Friday visited a port in southern Ukraine to oversee a ship being loaded with grain for export under a UN-backed plan aimed at getting millions of tons of Ukrainian grain stranded by Russia's naval blockade to world markets. Ukraine's presidency released footage of Zelensky standing in front of Turkish ship Polarnet in the port of Chornomorsk on a visit to inspect grain being loaded. Ukraine's presidency said exports could start in the "coming days". In a separate development, S&P Global Ratings on Friday cut Ukraine's long-term debt grade by three notches, saying a recently announced plan to defer payments means a default is "a virtual certainty". A group of Western countries last week gave their green light to Kyiv's request to postpone interest payments on its debt and called on other creditors to do so as well.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 29-30/2022
Saudi Arabia, Israel take baby steps toward normalization by exposing cooperation/تقرير من صحيفة يداعوت احرنوت تلقي الأضواء على مسيرة العلاقات الإيجابية بين دولة إسرائيل والعربية السعودية
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/110817/saudi-arabia-israel-take-baby-steps-toward-normalization-by-exposing-cooperation-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%b5%d8%ad%d9%8a%d9%81%d8%a9-%d9%8a%d8%af%d8%a7%d8%b9%d9%88%d8%aa-%d8%a7/
The Media Line/Ynetnews/July 30/2022
Analysis: Expert says more Israeli companies are operating openly in the kingdom, but process towards strengthening relation will be very slow; adds there are elements within Saudi Arabia resistant to normalization with Jewish state
The announcement earlier this month that Saudi Arabia was lifting all restrictions on overflying its airspace came in the middle of the night.
The excitement in Israel was great, though the 2am announcement on Twitter showed less enthusiasm from Riyadh.
The decision was much anticipated in Jerusalem. It will allow Israeli airlines that until now had to detour around the Arabian Peninsula, to shorten their routes to Asia and Oceana, making their flights shorter, cheaper, and more competitive.
The announcement did not mention Israel by name. Rather Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said the decision came “to open the kingdom’s airspace for all air carriers that meet the requirements of the authority for overflying.”
Over recent years, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been growing increasingly closer, but under the radar, motivated by mutual concerns over Iran. The removal of the flight restrictions comes after U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent trip to the region, a trip that highlighted the growing changes in the Middle East.
For decades Saudi Arabia has said that normalization with Israel can only take place after the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is resolved. While the airspace decision signals a departure from that policy, the modest manner in which the step was taken indicates there is still a long way to go in normalization between the two countries.
But also in recent decades, often through back channels and third parties, Saudis and Israelis have established trade ties. Israeli tech companies, especially in the agriculture and water sectors, have found a thirsty market in the Arabian Peninsula.
Dr. Nirit Ofir, CEO and founder of National Projects & Investment in the Gulf and a researcher at Bar-Ilan University, said, “There are more Israeli companies operating openly in Saudi Arabia; we see entry permits for Israeli passport holders given more freely. There is more openness to Israel in the country.”
In 2020, when Israel signed the Abraham Accords with several Arab countries, Saudi Arabia was absent. Relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco were normalized. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, was not ready to take such a step. Still, normalization between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain could not have happened without the prince’s blessing, as Saudi Arabia is the strongest and most influential of the Gulf countries.
“The Saudis are operating with great caution,” said Ofir. “The lifting of airspace restrictions does not mean we will see full-fledged peace in the coming days or weeks.”
President Donald Trump speaks during the Abraham Accords signing ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House,
Mark Feldman, CEO and founder of Ziontours Jerusalem, said, “Don’t expect many packages to Riyadh or Jeddah in the near future. Whatever peace is achieved between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be akin to the peace with Egypt. Cool and correct will be the cornerstones of relations.”
The warm, peaceful relationships between Israel and the UAE, and between Israel and Morocco, differ greatly from the decades of cold but stable peace between Jerusalem and Cairo. The reasons for the difference are complex, but the root lies in ties that have not graduated from the government level to warm relations between peoples.
Last year, for the first time, an Israeli team participated in the Dakar Rally off-road endurance event in Saudi Arabia using their Israeli passports. Such open participation would have been unthinkable prior to the Abraham Accords.
The opening of the airspace could have major implications for Israel.
“This is a very important step as part of a slow but impressive process of strengthening relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Michael Harari, a policy fellow at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and a former senior Israeli diplomat.
“The significance is more political than economic,” he added.
Israeli media also reported that direct flights between the countries will soon be available for Muslim pilgrims, saving them a great deal of money. This has not been confirmed by either side. Muslim Israelis are waiting for direct flights to Mecca. Currently, people who want to participate in the Hajj pilgrimage have to travel through Jordan.
The Saudi announcement has yet to be translated into altered flight paths. There are still no practical agreements in place that pave the way for the change. This could change in the coming weeks.
“This will be a gradual process,” said Ofir. “The Saudis will want something in return, probably in the form of security arrangements.”
“Getting closer to Israel is meant to give the Gulf states more confidence in the region, in terms of security,” said Hariri. “Israel is perceived as having an open door to the White House, which could help countries such as Saudi Arabia.”
The Saudi government has to tread carefully as there are elements within the kingdom resistant to normalization with Israel.
“If the Saudis feel such a step will promote their interest vis-à-vis Israel and the U.S., while not angering certain parts of society, they will promote it,” said Harari.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded with enthusiasm to the Saudi decision but added that Jerusalem will work “with necessary caution” going forward. It was an acknowledgment of the complexities attached to the budding relations.
The two countries will likely continue their cooperation and trade ties, mostly behind the scenes. With time, more of these interactions may come to center stage.
“There is no need to go further at this point. It is better not to endanger the process that we are witnessing with steps that are too big,” Hariri said.
*The story is written by Keren Setton and reprinted with permission from The Media Line

The EU's Shameful Total Appeasement of Iran's Mullahs
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute./July 30, 2022
In 2015, the European powers -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- changed their Iran policy from imposing pressure to adopting diplomacy. The diplomatic route included lifting oil and gas sanctions on Iran as well as removing some Iranian individuals and entities from the list of countries to be sanctioned.
According to the preface of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: "The JCPOA will produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran's nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."
The EU immediately allowed transfers of funds between Iranian and EU persons and entities, banking relationships between Iran's banks and the EU financial institutions, financial support for trade with the Islamic Republic, financial assistance and concessional loans to the Iranian government, the import of Iranian oil, petroleum products, gas and petrochemical products, investment in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, as well as export of gold, precious metals and diamonds, among others.
The EU continued with this policy even though the Iranian regime was found to violate the JCPOA.
Just as Europe disregarded warnings that relying on gas from Russia would leave them open to Russian blackmail, they are again ignoring warnings that a nuclear Iran will leave them open to Iranian blackmail.
Iran will not even have to use any nuclear weapons to persuade the leaders of Europe to do whatever it likes; the threat alone should do the trick. The mullahs might even sell or give a few to their terrorist militias. The tea leaves are not that hard to imagine; one only need look at Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
Thanks to the EU's complete appeasement policy towards the Iranian regime, it is now capable of building a nuclear bomb. In 2015 France, Germany and the UK changed their Iran policy from imposing pressure to adopting diplomacy. The diplomatic route included lifting oil and gas sanctions on Iran. Pictured (L-R): Then French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, then German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier, then EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Federica Mogherini and then Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna, Austria on July 14, 2015. (Photo by Joe Klamar/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)
Thanks to the EU's complete appeasement policy towards the Islamist mullahs, the Iranian regime is now capable of building a nuclear bomb.
Kamal Kharrazi, a senior official and adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare statement, revealed to Al-Jazeera TV:
"In a few days we were able to enrich uranium up to 60 percent and we can easily produce 90 percent enriched uranium.... Iran has [now] the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb."
The current capability of the mullahs to manufacture a nuclear bomb is most likely a culmination of the EU's appeasement policy towards the Islamic Republic, particularly since 2015.
In 2015, the European powers -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- changed their Iran policy from imposing pressure to adopting diplomacy. The diplomatic route included lifting oil and gas sanctions on Iran as well as removing some Iranian individuals and entities from the list of countries to be sanctioned. According to the preface of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action:
"The JCPOA will produce the comprehensive lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran's nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."
The EU immediately allowed transfers of funds between Iranian and EU persons and entities, banking relationships between Iran's banks and the EU financial institutions, financial support for trade with the Islamic Republic, financial assistance and concessional loans to the Iranian government, the import of Iranian oil, petroleum products, gas and petrochemical products, investment in the oil, gas and petrochemical sectors, as well as export of gold, precious metals and diamonds, among others.
The EU continued with this policy even though the Iranian regime was found to violate the JCPOA. For instance, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), revealed in its annual report a year after the nuclear deal was reached, that Iran's government was pursuing a "clandestine" path to obtain illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies "at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level." Germany's BfV also stated:
"Against this backdrop it is safe to expect that Iran will continue its intensive procurement activities in Germany using clandestine methods to achieve its objectives."
Even during the life of the nuclear deal, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), warned that the Islamic Republic violated the nuclear agreement at least twice.
After the Trump administration pulled the US out of the nuclear deal, the EU did not change its course. Instead, Germany, France and the UK doubled down on their Iran policy. The three countries established a mechanism called the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) which was primarily created to skirt US sanctions. Heiko Maas, Germany's then foreign minister, pointed out:
"We're making clear that we didn't just talk about keeping the nuclear deal with Iran alive, but now we're creating a possibility to conduct business transactions."
Did the Iranian regime reciprocate the EU's favors? Instead, they gradually reduced their compliance to the nuclear deal to a point where, according to the IAEA, they violated all terms and restrictions of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Later, the Iranian government also switched off several surveillance cameras that had been installed by the IAEA in Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran has continued to enrich a substantial amount of uranium -- up to 60% purity, a short technical step away from the 90% purity level required to build a nuclear weapon.
The EU's soft-on-Iran policy remained undisturbed even after France, Germany and the UK warned that the Iranian government's latest action was "further reducing the time Iran would take to break out towards a first nuclear weapon and it is fueling distrust as to Iran's intentions."
In spite of all these developments, the EU is still trying to revive the failed nuclear deal while it continues to trade with the Islamic Republic. According to the Tehran Times:
"The value of trade between Iran and the European Union, reached €4.863 billion in 2021, registering a nine-percent growth compared to the previous year.... According to the data released by the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (TCCIMA), Iran exported €554 million worth of commodities to the union during the said nine months, while importing goods valued at €2.7 billion".
Just as Europe disregarded warnings that relying on gas from Russia would leave them open to Russian blackmail, they are again ignoring warnings that a nuclear Iran will leave them open to Iranian blackmail.
Iran will not even have to use any nuclear weapons to persuade the leaders of Europe to do whatever it likes; the threat alone should do the trick. The mullahs might even sell or give a few to their terrorist militias. The tea leaves are not that hard to imagine; one only need look at Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Europe Is Faking Solidarity, and Putin Knows It
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/July 30/2022
The 27 national leaders of the European Union love to extol the solidarity that binds their countries together. Even the words signal destiny. “Union” comes via French from the Latin unus for “one,” and solidarity from solidus for “firm, whole and undivided.” Like a good marriage, the bloc is meant to be a solidarity union. In reality, it is no such thing, and Europe’s enemies know it. That includes Russian President Vladimir Putin and autocrats in China and afield. The EU’s biggest problem is the inability to see threats, responsibilities and sacrifices as shared.
Right now, the nail-biting is about Putin — both his physical warfare against Ukraine and his hybrid warfare against the EU. His weapon of choice is energy. Putin spent two decades making the EU vulnerable — that is, dependent on Russian natural gas and other hydrocarbons — by building a network of pipelines to gullible nations such as Germany. This year, following his invasion of Ukraine in February, he’s cocked these weapons and put his finger on the trigger.
In early summer, he throttled the gas flowing through Nord Stream 1, a big pipeline from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, to 60% of its capacity. This week, he further reduced that to 20%. He could turn it down more, or off. As a result, Europe’s storage tanks will be emptier than they should be going into winter. Putin is threatening to make Europeans shiver in unheated homes, and to force swathes of Europe’s industry to shut down.
As in any of its crises, the question for the EU is what to do about this mess. So the countries most affected — led by Germany in this case — are invoking that famous sense of solidarity.
Last week, the European Commission proposed that the entire bloc voluntarily reduce its gas consumption by 15%, with mandatory cuts to follow if necessary. The reaction was inevitable, understandable — and hardly reassuring.
Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece and several other member states don’t rely on Russian gas, and therefore aren’t really at much risk. Moreover, any gas savings they foist on their own companies and consumers wouldn’t help Germans, because there are no pipelines to carry spare gas from Madrid or Malta, say, to Bavaria or Berlin. So why should they say “yes” to coerced rationing?
And besides, doesn’t Germany bear responsibility? Many Europeans spent years warning Berlin against building two Baltic pipelines to Russia, and against simultaneously exiting nuclear power. Smugly, Germany ignored its partners and pooh-poohed the threat emanating from the Kremlin. Germans asking Spaniards to take shorter showers now seems a bit rich.
And hypocritical. A decade ago, during the euro crisis, the roles were reversed. Financial turmoil that had started in the US caused selloffs in the debt securities of member states like Greece, Spain and Portugal — even threatening an involuntary Grexit. But when these countries asked for solidarity from Germany and other northern countries, they instead got lectures on the evils of their profligacy for having borrowed too much in the first place.
The EU was no more enthusiastic about showing solidarity in 2015-16, when more than a million refugees crossed from Turkey to Greece, itself still reeling from the euro crisis. Some member states — including Germany — offered help, but others — led by Poland and Hungary — balked.
Ditto in 2020, when SARS-CoV-2 showed up. The instinctive reflex of member states was to slam their borders shut — even for masks and medical gear — turning the EU’s vaunted “single market” into a travesty. Europeans then came perilously close to fighting over vaccines. Eventually, Brussels got its act together, but Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, admitted that “we caught a glimpse of the abyss” — that is, an unraveling of the EU.
And what if the invaders were Russian soldiers instead of viruses? Given the EU’s track record, member states on the front line will be forgiven for finding talk about a “European Army” risible. Would the Dutch, Italians and Germans send their sons and daughters to die defending Estonians, Latvians or Poles? Yes, is the answer. But that’s because they’re in NATO and backed by the US, not because they’re in the EU and high on solidarity.
The major powers of the world understand this weakness of the EU. Europe’s friends in Washington worry about it; its foes in Moscow and Beijing try to exploit it. To add to the EU’s internal strife, Turkey and Belarus, for example, have tried to concoct renewed refugee crises.
European leaders are just as aware, and therefore want to de-emphasize the vulnerability. Take German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. In praising Europe’s “unity,” he doth protest too much. Betraying how little he thinks there is of it, he immediately segues to demanding the end of national vetoes and “individual member states egotistically blocking European decisions.” He had Hungary in mind just then, but others feel that way about Germany.
As is their wont, the EU 27 this week settled their latest spat about gas savings in the usual way: They fudged and wangled a compromise. Gas will be saved — somewhere, somehow — but so many countries will have opt-outs, loopholes and exceptions that you’d need a magnifying glass to find the solidarity. Putin saw nothing in Brussels this week to make him nervous.

Stability in Syria Remains a Long Distant Objective
Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/July 30/2022
When the leaders of Russia, Turkey, and Iran convened in Tehran on July 19, they did so amid significant international attention and expectation. While the war in Ukraine may have set the backdrop to the Tehran Summit, one topic of acute focus was Syria but after a day of bilateral and multilateral meetings, the latest gathering of the so-called Astana Group ended with nothing particularly new.
Instead, the world was presented with a re-assertion of Turkey, Russia, and Iran’s years-old, standard talking points. Even on the contentious issue of a possible Turkish incursion into northern Aleppo, publicly-expressed Russian and Iranian opposition was nothing new – and neither has it stopped Turkey before.
Although the Astana Group has undoubtedly proven to be the primary driver responsible for the transformation of Syria’s crisis since 2015, its effectiveness now seems to be dwindling.
In fact, judging by the outcome of the Tehran Summit, the Astana Group nations are now perpetuating a policy of ‘kicking the can down the road’ in precisely the same way that Western nations have been accused of for many years. In favoring, or accepting a status quo, therefore, the international community is most content with a Syria weakened by constant, latent conflicts in which economic decline, corruption, competing models of governance, and a moribund political process represent a de facto – but not official – partition of the country. Though Syrians of all stripes remain opposed to partition, it is precisely the situation their country now faces.
While no government on any side of the crisis will acknowledge this controversial reality, most do so privately. With this mindset now seemingly in play, ‘conflict resolution’ in Syria has been demoted to virtual irrelevancy, while ‘conflict management’ or ‘conflict containment’ is now the approach that defines external policy on Syria. In plain language, this means that conflict – or conflicts – are now an accepted reality in Syria. More than that, latent conflict may even be a preferred reality, provided it does not escalate to a level that would seriously challenge the current status quo.
In the week since the Tehran Summit, Syria has witnessed a series of deadly conflict incidents involving a plethora of different actors in every corner of the country. On July 20, two makeshift kamikaze drones launched by unknown actors were shot down over Russia’s Hmeymim Airbase on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, for the first time in nearly a year. On July 22, at least five Syrian soldiers were killed in a series of heavy Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian weapons systems stored in the Shia stronghold Damascus suburb of Sayyida Zeinab; one of the most senior commanders in the Syrian Democratic Forces was killed alongside two other SDF commanders in a Turkish drone strike in Qamishli; and seven civilians, including four young children, were killed in several Russian airstrikes outside Jisr al-Shughour in Idlib. And on July 24, two people were killed in a mysterious strike – possibly by a loitering munition – that targeted a ceremony attended by Syrian and Russian forces to inaugurate a replica of the Hagia Sophia in al-Suqaylabiyah in Hama.
Those incidents merely represented the highlights – there were dozens of violent incidents across Syria throughout the same week. This violent instability is far from unusual; in fact, it is normal. Worse still, the current status quo also guarantees a continuous spillover of violence and drivers of violence throughout many of Syria’s neighbors. In the past week, over $150 million of Captagon produced by the Assad regime’s narco-state was seized in the Gulf; an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps front group known as Saraya Alwiya al-Dam launched loitering munitions at Turkish military positions in northern Iraq; and suspected Turkish artillery strikes hit a tourist hot-spot in northern Iraq, killing multiple civilians. In Lebanon, authorities are escalating pressure on Syrian refugees to return to Syria against their human rights; and Jordan thwarted several drug smuggling attempts linked back to Assad’s regime.
Despite the clear costs of such violence and regional spillover, there is no clear international will to force forward whatever kind of process may be necessary to secure the kind of change and justice necessary to reconcile Syrians and stabilize Syria. The country is therefore all but destined to remain a battleground for internal and external conflict. The United States has no discernible intention to disengage and neither does Russia, despite its struggles in Ukraine. It has often been popular to blame Turkey’s policies in Syria on President Erdogan, but little if anything would change were he to be replaced. And for Iran, Syria remains integral to its revolutionary regional agenda and in recent weeks, Iranian behavior has emerged as increasingly aggressive.
Resolving Syria’s crisis remains a long distant objective and welcoming Assad back to the world will only exacerbate every driver of conflict and instability. Therefore, at this juncture, the international community faces a choice: to sit back and accept this crippling instability and leave it entirely unchecked, or to work to gradually stabilize Syria’s various opposing regions and create a more sustainable status quo. Although it would be in everyone’s collective best interests, there is no visible prospect for a shift towards a stability approach.
*Exclusive to Asharq Al-Awsat

Can the EU save the Iran nuclear deal?
Con Coughlin/The National/July 30/2022
This week’s dramatic appeal by the EU’s leading diplomat for negotiators to make a last-ditch effort to save the Iran nuclear deal reflects the dangerous impasse that has developed over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Fifteen months after negotiations resumed in Vienna to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 deal agreed between Iran and the world's major powers, the prospects of a new agreement appear exceedingly remote. In the early stages of the negotiations, hopes were raised that a new agreement was indeed feasible, to the extent that, back in March, Josep Borrell, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, claimed at the Doha Forum that world powers were “very close” to sealing a deal. Looking back, that was undoubtedly the high point of expectations regarding the JCPOA. Since then, the talks have stalled over a number of issues unconnected with the central goal of the negotiations – to limit Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons, which numerous western intelligence agencies believe has been a long-standing goal of the Iranian regime.
Tehran’s insistence on introducing issues extraneous to the nuclear programme, such as the removal of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from Washington’s list of designated terrorist groups, meant valuable time was lost, to the extent that even the Biden administration, which has invested so much political capital in reviving the JCPOA, is openly questioning whether a new agreement is feasible. Arguably the most sobering remark regarding the talks came from Robert Malley, the lead US negotiator, when he said: “You can’t revive a dead corpse.”
Despite the deepening gloom among western negotiators, Mr Borrell still insists that a new agreement is possible, as long as all the sides accept that there is little prospect of further compromises being reached.
It is difficult to assess whether the negotiations will move forward, or this is yet another delaying exercise by Iran
In a letter published in London’s Financial Times this week that was jointly signed with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Mr Borrell said he was launching an initiative aimed at breaking the deadlock over a deal that, if passed, will ease economic sanctions against Iran, one of Tehran’s key requirements. Following a visit to Iran last month, where Mr Borrell had “long but positive” talks with Mr Amir-Abdollahian and other Iranian officials, the EU diplomat is keen to restore indirect talks between Tehran and Washington. To this end, he has drafted a text that he believes could lead to the resumption of negotiations.“This text represents the best possible deal that I, as facilitator of the negotiations, see as feasible. It is not a perfect agreement, but it addresses all essential elements and includes hard-won compromises by all sides,” he wrote. “Decisions need to be taken now,” he warned, adding that he sees “no other comprehensive or effective alternative within reach”.
Mr Borrell’s initiative prompted a cautious response from Tehran, where Iran’s chief negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani, posted in a tweet that his government has its own ideas to conclude the negotiations “both in substance and form".
As neither side has given precise details of the proposals on offer, it is difficult to assess whether there is a realistic chance of the negotiations moving forward, or whether this is yet another delaying exercise by Iran to prolong the negotiating process while it continues work on developing its nuclear technology.
Despite its involvement in the Vienna talks, Iran has intensified its nuclear activities in recent months, especially in the controversial area of uranium enrichment, where it is believed to be close to acquiring sufficient quantities of material for a bomb.
The extent of Iran's progress was revealed this month when Kamal Kharazi, a former foreign minister and key adviser to Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, made a startling claim about Tehran’s ability to enrich uranium to the 90 per cent level required for making nuclear warheads. "In a few days, we were able to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent and we can easily produce 90 per cent enriched uranium … Iran has the technical means to produce a nuclear bomb, but there has been no decision by Iran to build one," Mr Kharazi said.
Can the growing Russia-Iran alliance endure?
Is Biden's hardened Iran stance enough to assuage US allies' concerns?
I know all too well how inspiring and exasperating he can be This statement, together with warnings issued by UN inspectors, has led to heightened concerns.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has been particularly critical of Iran’s conduct after officials removed 27 cameras operated by the agency to monitor Iran's enrichment programme. Mr Grossi said this meant that the IAEA had “limited visibility” on a programme that was “galloping ahead”. He also warned that Iran’s recent actions made it a great deal more difficult to revive the JCPOA. “It is not impossible, but it is going to require a very complex task and perhaps some specific agreements,” Mr Grossi said.
Tehran's progress has certainly attracted the attention of Israel’s security establishment, which makes no secret of its desire to prevent the Iranian regime from ever acquiring nuclear weapons that could be used to threaten the existence of the Jewish state. Speaking at a conference in Jerusalem this week, Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz claimed that his country has the ability to "seriously harm and delay the nuclear [programme].”
Given the catastrophic consequences any military confrontation between Israel and Iran would have for the rest of the Middle East, any attempt to resolve the issue, such as the draft text Mr Borrell has proposed, needs to be treated with the utmost seriousness by all the parties involved.