English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For 30 July/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.july30.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 11/27-32/:”A woman in the crowd raised her voice and said to him, ‘Blessed is the womb that bore you and the breasts that nursed you!’But he said, ‘Blessed rather are those who hear the word of God and obey it!’ When the crowds were increasing, he began to say, ‘This generation is an evil generation; it asks for a sign, but no sign will be given to it except the sign of Jonah. For just as Jonah became a sign to the people of Nineveh, so the Son of Man will be to this generation. The queen of the South will rise at the judgement with the people of this generation and condemn them, because she came from the ends of the earth to listen to the wisdom of Solomon, and see, something greater than Solomon is here! The people of Nineveh will rise up at the judgement with this generation and condemn it, because they repented at the proclamation of Jonah, and see, something greater than Jonah is here!”.

Question: “How should a Christian deal with feelings of guilt regarding past sins?”
GotQuestions.org/July 29/2022
Answer: Everyone has sinned, and one of the results of sin is guilt. We can be thankful for guilty feelings because they drive us to seek forgiveness. The moment a person turns from sin to Jesus Christ in faith, his sin is forgiven. Repentance is part of the faith that leads to salvation (Matthew 3:2; 4:17; Acts 3:19).
In Christ, even the most heinous sins are blotted out (see 1 Corinthians 6:9-11 for a list of some unrighteous acts that can be forgiven). Salvation is by grace, and grace forgives. After a person is saved, he will still sin, and when he does, God still promises forgiveness. “But if anybody does sin, we have one who speaks to the Father in our defense—Jesus Christ, the Righteous One” (1 John 2:1).
Freedom from sin, however, does not always mean freedom from guilty feelings. Even when our sins are forgiven, we still remember them. Also, we have a spiritual enemy, called “the accuser of our brothers” (Revelation 12:10) who relentlessly reminds us of our failures, faults, and sins. When a Christian experiences feelings of guilt, he or she should do the following things:
1) Confess all known, previously unconfessed sin. In some cases, feelings of guilt are appropriate because confession is needed. Many times, we feel guilty because we are guilty! (See David’s description of guilt and its solution in Psalm 32:3-5.)
2) Ask the Lord to reveal any other sin that may need confessing. Have the courage to be completely open and honest before the Lord. “Search me, O God, and know my heart; test me and know my anxious thoughts. See if there is any offensive way in me, and lead me in the way everlasting” (Psalm 139:23-24).
3) Seek to make restitution, where possible, of the sins committed against others. Zacchaeus, in repenting of his sin, promised the Lord, “If I have cheated anybody out of anything, I will pay back four times the amount” (Luke 19:8). This is part of the “fruit in keeping with repentance” that John preached (Luke 3:9).
4) Trust the promise of God that He will forgive sin and remove guilt, based on the blood of Christ (1 John 1:9; Psalm 85:2; 86:5; Romans 8:1).
5) On occasions when guilty feelings arise over sins already confessed and forsaken, reject such feelings as false guilt. The Lord has been true to His promise to forgive. Read and meditate on Psalm 103:8-12.
6) Ask the Lord to rebuke Satan, your accuser, and ask the Lord to restore the joy that comes with freedom from guilt (Psalm 51:12).
Psalm 32 is a very profitable study. Although David had sinned terribly, he found freedom from both sin and guilty feelings. He dealt with the cause of guilt and the reality of forgiveness. Psalm 51 is another good passage to investigate. The emphasis here is confession of sin, as David pleads with God from a heart full of guilt and sorrow. Restoration and joy are the results.
Finally, if sin has been confessed, repented of, and forgiven, it is time to move on. Remember that we who have come to Christ have been made new creatures in Him. “Therefore, if anyone is in Christ, he is a new creation; the old has gone, the new has come!” (2 Corinthians 5:17). Part of the “old” which has gone is the remembrance of past sins and the guilt they produced. Sadly, some Christians are prone to wallowing in memories of their former sinful lives, memories which should have been dead and buried long ago. This is pointless and runs counter to the victorious Christian life God wants for us. A wise saying is “If God has saved you out of a sewer, don’t dive back in and swim around.”

Titels For English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 29-30/2022
Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Lebanon
Biden extends National Emergency with respect to Lebanon
Saudi Crown Prince, Macron Discuss Energy, Iran Nuclear Deal, Lebanon
France, KSA say they support Lebanese sovereignty, stability
Report: Israeli Cabinet to meet over border demarcation, Hezbollah's threats
Report: Lebanese bishops may be asked to enter Israel via Jordan
Report: Berri upset with Mikati over laws obstruction
Mikati: We are seeking to halt the collapse
Bou Habib: We received Western warnings over Syrian ship and I'm optimistic on border deal
Russian Embassy denies any knowledge of grain ship docked in Lebanon
Turkey-based firm says grains on Tripoli-docked ship not stolen
Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon issues statement on Tripoli-docked ship
Bassil says MPs 'populist, unproductive, impolite'
Geagea urges authorities to end smuggling, have mercy on Lebanese
UN Body Says Violence Against Syrians in Lebanon on the Rise
Lebanon’s Army Chief Vows to Safeguard Security

Titles For Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 29-30/2022
Gantz Accuses Netanyahu of Involving Army in Politics
Russia, Ukraine trade blame over strike on POW jail
Macron counts on Saudi prince to 'ease' Ukraine war effects
Macron Seeks Solutions to 4 Files with Saudi Crown Prince
US Says It is Now Up to Iran to Take the Deal or Reject It
Saudi Arabia, Israel take baby steps toward normalization by exposing cooperation/The Media Line/Ynetnews/July 29, 2022
Blinken and Russia’s Lavrov have ‘frank’ discussion about prisoners
Fourth phase of Ukraine war with Russia could be decisive — if US sends more weapons | Opinion
Palestinian teen shot dead by Israeli army
New constitution gives some Tunisians hope, others concern
What's behind the storming of Iraq's parliament?

Titles For LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 29-30/2022
Iran's Deepening Military Expansion Into Europe/Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/July 29, 2022
The Final Frontier Soon May No Longer Belong to All of Us/Jessica F. Green/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 29/2022
Biden and the Masochistic Nail/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 29/2022
The US and Russia Need to Start Talking Before It’s Too Late/Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro/The New York Times
Russia Created a Refugee Crisis, and Now Putin Is Weaponizing It/Ivana Stradner and Iulia Sabina-Joja/The Dispatch/July 29/2022
Security issues are latest test of Turkish-Iraqi relations/Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 30/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 29-30/2022
Notice on the Continuation of the National Emergency with Respect to Lebanon
THE WHITE HOUSE,/JULY 20, 2021
STATEMENTS AND RELEASES
On August 1, 2007, by Executive Order 13441, the President declared a national emergency with respect to Lebanon pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701-1706) to deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States constituted by the actions of certain persons to undermine Lebanon’s legitimate and democratically elected government or democratic institutions; to contribute to the deliberate breakdown in the rule of law in Lebanon, including through politically motivated violence and intimidation; to reassert Syrian control or contribute to Syrian interference in Lebanon; or to infringe upon or undermine Lebanese sovereignty. Such actions contribute to political and economic instability in that country and the region.
Certain ongoing activities, such as Iran’s continuing arms transfers to Hizballah — which include increasingly sophisticated weapons systems — serve to undermine Lebanese sovereignty, contribute to political and economic instability in the region, and continue to constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. For this reason, the national emergency declared on August 1, 2007, must continue in effect beyond August 1, 2021. Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency with respect to Lebanon declared in Executive Order 13441.
This notice shall be published in the Federal Register and transmitted to the Congress.
JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.
THE WHITE HOUSE,July 20, 2021.

Biden extends National Emergency with respect to Lebanon
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
U.S. President Joe Biden has extended the so-called U.S. National Emergency with respect to Lebanon. “Certain ongoing activities, such as Iran’s continuing arms transfers to Hezbollah -- which include increasingly sophisticated weapons systems -- serve to undermine Lebanese sovereignty, contribute to political and economic instability in the region, and continue to constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States,” Biden said in a statement, explaining what prompted the extension.“For this reason, the national emergency declared on August 1, 2007, must continue… for 1 year,” he added. On August 1, 2007, then-U.S. president George W. Bush declared a national emergency with respect to Lebanon to “deal with the unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States constituted by the actions of certain persons to undermine Lebanon’s legitimate and democratically elected government or democratic institutions.”

Saudi Crown Prince, Macron Discuss Energy, Iran Nuclear Deal, Lebanon
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al-Awsat//Friday, 29 July, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held a working dinner at the Elysée Palace on Thursday, during which they discussed bilateral relations and areas of existing partnership. They also touched on opportunities for developing cooperation and reviewed the latest developments in the Middle East and efforts to achieve stability and peace. French presidential sources stated that Macron and Prince Mohammed bin Salman have also focused on the supply of energy to European countries, in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war and its consequences on global food and energy security. The Iranian nuclear issue, the situation in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, as well as terrorism were also on the table of the two leaders. The sources added that Macron, who had returned from his African tour, which included Cameroon, Benin and Guinea-Bissau, to host the Saudi crown prince, would emphasize the need to exploit the available means to reduce regional escalation. French sources said that Macron wanted to put his country on the diplomatic map of the Middle East through his recent movement. The sources added that the French president was seeking to reproduce the experience of the Baghdad conference held in August last year, which brought together all parties in the region, including the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran. According to the French vision, a conference or summit of this kind would alleviate tension and provide a platform for dialogue between all parties.
Iran’s nuclear project, in addition to the ballistic missile program and Tehran’s threatening regional behavior were also among the issues of discussions between Macron and the Saudi crown prince. The French president had spoken last week with his Iranian counterpart, Ibrahim Raisi, and conveyed his disappointment over Tehran’s refusal to sign the semi-final agreement reached by the Vienna negotiations. However, Macron believes that returning to the 2015 agreement is still possible, provided that the main actors refrain from wasting time and opportunities. In parallel, the French sources pointed to Macron’s visit to Jeddah at the end of 2021, during which an agreement to establish a financial mechanism to support Lebanon in the sectors of hospitalization and education. They noted that the Elysée underlined the necessity for the Lebanese authorities to carry out the required reforms demanded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and restore the state’s control over the country’s decision-making, amid concerns over a lurking institutional vacuum if the political parties failed to elect a successor to President Michel Aoun. On the Syrian situation, the French sources pointed to a Saudi-French converging stance, adding that the two sides would discuss recent developments, especially in northern Syria.

France, KSA say they support Lebanese sovereignty, stability
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
France and Saudi Arabia stressed Friday, in a joint statement, the two countries' support for the sovereignty, security and stability of Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had talked over dinner Thursday about regional crises including the war in Yemen and Iran's nuclear program. While U.S. President Joe Biden fist-bumped bin Salman in a gesture that was seized on by critics, Macron shook hands on the steps of the Elysee Palace as he welcomed the prince on Thursday.

Report: Israeli Cabinet to meet over border demarcation, Hezbollah's threats
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
The Israeli cabinet is holding a meeting on Sunday to discuss the maritime border demarcating with Lebanon and Hezbollah's threats, an Israeli media report said. On Sunday, U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein is scheduled to arrive in Lebanon with a response to Lebanon's demands. Lebanese and Israeli media reports have said that the solution to the border dispute is near and that Hochstein will present a framework for an agreement. The response would be a compromise between Israel and Lebanon's demands, the reports said, yet Israeli General Amos Gilad has warned that Hezbollah's threats must be "taken seriously". Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah had repeatedly warned Israel, after it had moved a gas production vessel into the Karish field, that it would not be able to extract gas from Karish without a sea border agreement with Lebanon.
Earlier this month, Hezbollah had sent unarmed drones over the Karish gas field "as a message" to Israel. Lebanon says Karish is disputed territory under ongoing maritime border negotiations, whereas Israel claims it lies within its internationally recognized economic waters. Negotiations between Lebanon and Israel to determine their maritime borders commenced in October 2020, when the two sides held indirect U.S.-mediated talks in southern Lebanon. Since taking over the mediation from late 2021, Hochstein has resorted to shuttle diplomacy with visits to both Beirut and Jerusalem.

Report: Lebanese bishops may be asked to enter Israel via Jordan
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Contacts are underway behind the scenes in a bid to reach a “settlement” related to the case of Archbishop Moussa al-Hajj, a media report said on Friday. “Under the expected settlement, Hajj would not be legally prosecuted for violating boycott laws and for communicating with Lebanese and non-Lebanese sides carrying the citizenship of an enemy country, and the money and medicines he was carrying would be confiscated,” informed sources told al-Akhbar newspaper. “The Naqoua border crossing would meanwhile be closed and the church would be asked to use Jordan as a gateway to the Palestinian territories. The archbishop and others would also stop carrying any kind of financial or material aid from occupied Palestine,” the sources added. “Certain sides have put Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in this picture and he has received assurances that Hezbollah has nothing to do with the issue, while President Michel Aoun has urged the patriarch not to allow rabble-rousers to exploit this file for political motives,” the sources went on to say.

Report: Berri upset with Mikati over laws obstruction
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri is upset with Prime minister-designate Najib Mikati, al-Akhbar newspaper reported. The daily said that Berri has expressed to his visitors his discontent over Mikati's obstruction to a number of files and laws, including the state budget and over his evasion from fixing an exchange rate for it. The report quoted informed sources as saying that Mikati is avoiding some decisions that he thinks would provoke street protests against him.

Mikati: We are seeking to halt the collapse
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Prime Minister-designate and caretaker PM Najib Mikati on Friday said that he is seeking to “halt the collapse” of the country. “We need to address a lot of social issues and to organize the living matters and salaries so that we launch the rescue process and revive Lebanon,” Mikati said during his sponsorship of the launch of a touristic campaign in Tripoli. “The problems that we are facing are the result of long accumulations and we have grabbed the burning cinder with our hand for the sake of salvation,” the PM added. “We assumed responsibility while the country was in a state of total bankruptcy, and what we’re doing today is transforming the country from bankruptcy into insolvency,” Mikati went on to say. “We understand the current crises and we know what the current inflation has done at all levels, in addition to the political conflicts that are blocking a lot of solutions,” he said.

Bou Habib: We received Western warnings over Syrian ship and I'm optimistic on border deal
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Caretaker Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib revealed Friday that Lebanon has received “a number of protests and warnings from a number of Western countries” after a Syrian-flagged ship carrying wheat and barley arrived at Tripoli’s port on Thursday. “The relevant authorities in Lebanon are currently examining the ship and Lebanon has not yet managed to identify the source of the material it is carrying,” Bou Habib added, noting that the appropriate decision would be taken later. Separately, Bou Habib said he is optimistic that an agreement will be reached between Lebanon and Israel through the U.S. mediation in order to demarcate the maritime border between them. “There has never been as much optimism as there is today,” the minister added.

Russian Embassy denies any knowledge of grain ship docked in Lebanon
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
The Russian Embassy in Lebanon denied Friday any knowledge of a Syrian cargo ship that has docked in the port of Tripoli with "stolen grain from Ukraine."Ukraine said the ship, sanctioned by the United States, carried 5,000 tons of flour and 5,000 tons of barley stolen by Russian from the war-torn country. The ship, Laodicea, was initially heading to Tartus Port in Syria, and was expected to arrive there earlier this week.On Thursday, Ukrainian Ambassador Ihor Ostash had met with Lebanese President Michel Aoun and warned the Lebanese leader that purchasing stolen goods from Russia would "harm bilateral ties," according to the embassy statement. The Russian Embassy dubbed the Ukrainian accusations of stealing grain from Ukraine as "false and baseless."Ukraine has accused Russia of plundering grain and steeling from its territory since Moscow invaded the country in late February.

Turkey-based firm says grains on Tripoli-docked ship not stolen
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
A Turkey-based grains trading company denied Friday that barley and flour aboard a ship docked in the Port of Tripoli in Lebanon had been stolen from Ukraine, saying the source of the flour is Russia. An official at Loyal Agro Co LTD said that the firm had sought to sell 5,000 tons of the flour on the ship to private buyers in Lebanon and not to the Lebanese government. The Ukrainian Embassy in Lebanon on Thursday told Reuters that a U.S.-sanctioned Syrian ship had docked in Tripoli "carrying 5,000 tons of barley and 5,000 tons of flour that we suspect was taken from Ukrainian stores."
The company official said that the cargo, some 8,000 tons of flour and 1,700 tons of barley in total, had initially been destined for Syria but the company decided to offload 5,000 tons of flour in Lebanon amid bread shortages tied to a three-year economic crisis. The official added that the flour could be sold for between $620 to $650 per ton in Lebanon, whereas a ton would fetch $600 in Syria.

Ukrainian embassy in Lebanon issues statement on Tripoli-docked ship
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
The Ukrainian Embassy in Lebanon on Friday issued a statement to clarify why it believes that flour and barley aboard a Syrian-flagged ship docked in Lebanon’s Tripoli had been “stolen” from Ukraine. “During the Russian occupation, more than 500,000 tons of grain were stolen from the occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia and Mykolaiv region,” it said. “There were attempts to transport most of these grains to Middle Eastern countries, including Egypt, Turkey and Syria, and attempts to transfer them to Lebanon were recorded,” the embassy added. It said that law enforcement agencies in Ukraine have “proven the involvement of 78 ships in the illegal transportation of stolen Ukrainian grain.”“At the same time, this list is incomplete and is constantly updated. The ship Laodicea appeared on this list,” the embassy added. It noted that the facts of illegal exportation of grain from Ukraine were confirmed not only by law enforcement agencies, but also within the framework of journalistic investigations, as well as by the Imagining Russian Hackers initiative. This report, https://www.russiatheftreport.com/russia-theft-report.html on page 18, refers to the Laodicea, which was registered in Feodisia on July 4, the embassy said.
“Today, a Ukrainian court judge issued a decision on the seizure of the ship Laodicea with the cargo on board. Additionally, it should be noted that this vessel is sanctioned by the United States of America and subject to Caesar Act,” it added.

Bassil says MPs 'populist, unproductive, impolite'
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement said Friday, in a video post on social video, that what is happening in Parliament is sad. "First, there is disrespect and impoliteness between the MPs," Bassil said, adding that the Parliament is not "productive.""The first Parliament session took place after two months of the parliamentary elections with a weak agenda that included only one of the four IMF-prerequisite laws," Bassil said. The FPM chief also accused the Parliament of populism, saying that "legislation and populism do not go together, otherwise the legislation will not be sound."

Geagea urges authorities to end smuggling, have mercy on Lebanese
Naharnet/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea said Friday that smuggling is the common factor between the multiple crises in Lebanon. Geagea mentioned, in a post on social media, the economic collapse, the fuel crisis, the Akkar tragic explosion and the bread crisis.
He slammed President Michel Aoun for not being able to manage the smuggling problem during his term. He also accused the successive past governments of not taking any measures in this regard. "Have mercy on the Lebanese people," Geagea said to the President, the government and the decision makers, as he urged them to take the necessary measures to stop the smuggling.

UN Body Says Violence Against Syrians in Lebanon on the Rise
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Discrimination and violence against Syrian refugees in Lebanon has soared in recent weeks as the country grapples with high food prices and shortages, the UN refugee agency told the Associated Press on Friday.
“We have seen tensions between Lebanese and Syrians at bakeries across the country,” United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees spokesperson Paula Barrachina told the AP. “In some cases even involving shooting and using sticks against refugees.” The UN's World Food Program said Lebanon is facing a food security crisis, with about half the population food insecure. People are also grappling with high food inflation and a currency that's tanked over the past three years. Barranchina said some parts of Lebanon have issued curfews for refugees or asked bakeries to prioritize Lebanese citizens.
According to a notice obtained by the AP, bakeries in Baalbek were ordered to prioritize Lebanese citizens for subsidized Arabic flatbread. One Syrian refugee told the AP earlier this month that he was forced to wait several hours at a bakery as they prioritized giving bread bundles to Lebanese first. In one video shared on social media, a group of men in Lebanon's Bourj Hammoud neighborhood near the capital beat a Syrian adolescent boy with sticks and kicked him the face near a bakery. Sounds of gunshots ring out in the background. Lebanese authorities last week announced the formation of a security committee to stifle fights and scuffles at bakeries. The UNHCR called on Lebanese authorities to “ensure the rule of law and the protection of all persons in the country”, while urging the international community to shore up aid to the country. Lebanese lawmakers voted to spend a $150 million World Bank loan on importing more wheat in the hopes of bringing down the price domestically. About 1 million Syrian refugees who fled their country's civil war reside in neighboring Lebanon. Most live in extreme poverty. Since 2019, poverty has deepened for across the country for all its residents. A growing number of Lebanese, Syrians, and Palestinians living in the country are embarking almost weekly on a dangerous voyage across the Mediterranean to seek refuge in Europe. Lebanese officials have increasingly called for the forcible return of Syrian refugees to areas in their country they deem safe from the conflict, and have accused them overwhelming the country’s already crumbling infrastructure. While armed conflict has subsided in much of Syria, human rights organizations and the UNHCR said conditions are not safe for many people to return. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International said they have documented cases of arbitrary detention, torture, and a host of human rights abuses to returnees. The Lebanese government has dismissed these concerns. They are coordinating with the Syrian government in Damascus on a plan that could see up to 15,000 refugees sent back to the country each month.

Lebanon’s Army Chief Vows to Safeguard Security
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Lebanon’s Army Chief vowed on Friday to safeguard the country’s security saying the military will never let “sedition and chaos infiltrate the internal arena.” “We will never allow security to be shaken, we will never let sedition and chaos find a way into our internal arena, in the hope that political solutions capable of saving the country and preventing its collapse are reached,” said General Joseph Aoun in his Order of the Day marking the 77th Army Day. The Army Chief said that Lebanese youth should regain their trust in their homeland which is in dire need of their capabilities and potential to rise again. “Let the dream of rebuilding Lebanon be stronger than the dream of immigration,” he said. Aoun’s name is being circulated as a presidential candidate to succeed President Michel Aoun whose term ends on October 31. Addressing the military, Aoun added: “You live in exceptional circumstances, and you, like our people, suffer from the economic crisis that began about three years ago. This crisis, which worsened recently, led to paralysis in most of the state's sectors and institutions. This produced negative repercussions in various fields. Only the military institution is still cohesive and ready to assume its full responsibilities towards its homeland and its people with determination, will, and conviction.”“Sacrifice is at the core of our motto,” stressed Aoun, adding that “no matter how harsh the circumstances and intense the challenges, the army will remain a pillar of Lebanon's structure.”Citing Israeli threats against Lebanon and other challenges facing the country, Aoun urged the military to “remain ready to face all dangers: the Israeli enemy and its constant threats and ambitions in our natural resources on the one hand, and terrorism that is waiting for the chance to regain its activity on the other hand.
“We should not forget the danger that threatens our society and the future of our youth, which is drugs. The pursuit of its dealers and promoters will remain a priority,” emphasized Aoun. "Our commitment to formal positions is imperative, especially the maritime border demarcation issue. Our commitment to international resolutions and strengthening cooperation with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon is an absolute necessity...What concerns us, is the cohesion of the institution and its continuity in performing its tasks, as well as the security and stability of Lebanon," he concluded.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 29-30/2022
Gantz Accuses Netanyahu of Involving Army in Politics
Tel Aviv- Asharq Al-Awsat//Friday, 29 July, 2022
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz announced that the opposition chief is engaging the army in political affairs at the expense of security interests. Earlier, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu announced the appointment of a new chief of staff of the Israeli army and demanded the extension of the term of the current chief of staff, Aviv Kohavi. Gantz said the Israeli government conducts itself with responsibility and determination to protect its interests, adding that the "last person who can talk about unnecessary squabbling on security issues is Netanyahu." Prime Minister Yair Lapid voiced Gantz's stance, adding that "if Netanyahu had bothered to come to Prime Minister Lapid for security and diplomacy updates, Netanyahu would have known the facts."The term of Kohavi ends on January 15, and Gantz began the procedures for appointing a successor. He revealed that he had spoken with the most prominent candidates for the position, namely the former deputy chief of staff who served as the military secretary of the government under Netanyahu Eyal Zamir, the current deputy chief of staff Herzi Halevi, and a member of the Chief of Staff Yoel Strick. Gantz was inclined to appoint Halevi to the post, but the opposition was outraged, saying it was "illegal." However, Gantz conducted consultations with the political, legal, and security parties involved in this procedure, including Lapid, and the former prime minister, Naftali Bennett. Israel's Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, announced that there was "no absolute ban" on the appointment of a new Chief of Staff during the election season, which gave Gantz the green light to continue the procedures. Gantz said this is Israel's fifth election in over three years and that he requested a meeting with Netanyahu to try to convince him that the matter could not be postponed. But Netanyahu declared his rejection of the idea by saying that the chief of staff should be appointed in a respectable official government manner, away from any electoral context. He justified his call for postponing the appointment and extending Kohavi's term by saying that the selection of the chief of staff is one of the sensitive and vital appointments for Israel's security. Netanyahu argued that the crucial appointment should be made in a "stately manner" and away from "political context." "The appointment of senior officials should be determined by a permanent government, and not by a transitional government in the midst of elections," Netanyahu said.

Russia, Ukraine trade blame over strike on POW jail
Agence France Presse/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Moscow and Kyiv on Friday accused each other of bombing a jail holding Ukrainian prisoners of war in Russian-held territory, with Russia saying 40 prisoners and eight prison staff were killed. Russia's defense ministry said the Ukrainian strikes were carried out with US-supplied long-range missiles, in an "egregious provocation" designed to stop soldiers surrendering. It said that among the dead were Ukrainian forces that had laid down their arms after repelling Moscow's assault on the sprawling Azovstal steel works in Mariupol. The claims came as President Volodymyr Zelensky visited a port in southern Ukraine to oversee a ship being loaded with grain for export under a UN-backed plan aimed at ending a food crisis. Ukraine's presidency said exports could start in the "coming days" under the plan aimed at getting millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain stranded by Russia's naval blockade to world markets.
'Petrifying war crime'
Following the strike on the prison, Russian state-television showed what appeared to be destroyed barracks and tangled metal beds but no casualties could be seen. Ukraine's military denied carrying out the attack saying its forces "did not launch missile and artillery strikes in the area of Olenivka settlement." It instead blamed Russia's invading forces for "a targeted artillery shelling" on the detention facility, saying it was being used to "accuse Ukraine of committing 'war crimes', as well as to hide the torture of prisoners and executions". "Russia has committed another petrifying war crime by shelling a correctional facility in occupied" Olenivka where it held Ukrainian POWs, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote on Twitter. Ukraine's forces in May ended a weeks-long siege of Azovstal, with around 2,500 combatants surrendering after calling a halt to their first resistance. Moscow's state media has reported that some officers -- including those from the controversial Azov regiment -- have been taken into Russia. Kyiv says it has captured thousands of Russian troops during the invasion and has begun putting some on trial for alleged war crimes. A Ukrainian court on Friday reduced the life sentence handed to a Russian soldier in May for pre-meditated murder in the country's first war crimes trial, instead jailing the serviceman for 15 years.
Mykolaiv strikes
Russian strikes elsewhere in Ukraine killed five people and wounded seven more on Friday on the heavily bombed city of Mykolaiv near the country's southern frontline, the regional governor said. "They shot at another area near a public transport stop," governor Vitaliy Kim said in a statement on social media. Mykolaiv, near the Black Sea, has seen roughly half of its estimated pre-war population of nearly 500,000 people leave and the city has been shelled daily for weeks. It is the largest Ukrainian-controlled urban hub near the frontlines in the Kherson region, where Kyiv's army has launched a counter-offensive to regain control of the economically and strategically important coastal territory. The Ukrainian presidency said Friday that Russian strikes on the city a day earlier had struck a humanitarian aid distribution point and injured three people. In the eastern Donetsk region, governor Pavlo Kyrylenko also said Friday that Moscow's forces had killed eight people and wounded 19 more in attacks over the previous day.
Grain ship loading
The ceaseless violence on the ground comes as Ukraine looks to push ahead with restarting crucial grain exports under a plan brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to lift Russia's Black Sea naval blockade. Ukraine's presidency released footage of Zelensky standing in front of Turkish ship Polarnet in the port of Chornomorsk on a visit to inspect grain being loaded. "The first vessel, the first ship is being loaded since the beginning of the war," Zelensky said in a statement. Zelensky said Kyiv was "waiting for a signal" from Ankara and UN to start exports that it is hoped will help mitigate a global food crisis that has seen prices soar. The hike in food costs is just one of the shock waves that Moscow's war in Ukraine has sent reverberating around the world. Energy prices have also risen dramatically as Moscow has cut gas supplies to Europe and the turbulence has wracked the oil markets. The French presidency said that leader Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had agreed to work together to limit the impact of the war at talks in Paris. Macron took the meeting despite fierce criticism from rights groups in a bid to get major crude producer Saudia Arabia to up its production.

Macron counts on Saudi prince to 'ease' Ukraine war effects
Agence France Presse/Friday, 29 July, 2022
French leader Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman agreed to work "to ease the effects" of the Ukraine war, Macron's office said Friday, after talks in Paris that marked the full diplomatic rehabilitation of the Saudi leader.
Like U.S. President Joe Biden who visited Riyadh earlier this month, Macron had been keen to secure extra oil production from the de facto Saudi leader who was a pariah in the West under recently. A French statement made no reference to any agreement but said the two men had agreed to "intensify their cooperation to ease the effects (of the war) in Europe, the Middle East and the world". The dinner between the two men on Thursday evening outraged rights groups because of bin Salman's suspected role in the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. Western leaders snubbed the 36-year-old prince after Saudi agents killed Khashoggi inside Saudi Arabia's consulate in Istanbul in 2018. But the prince is being courted again as Europe and its allies urgently seek fresh sources of fossil fuels to replace lost Russian production. As he left on Friday, bin Salman expressed his "deepest gratitude and appreciation for the warm reception and hospitality accorded to me and the accompanying delegation" in a statement posted online by the Saudi foreign ministry. Macron's decision to host the controversial royal sparked fierce criticism at home from human rights groups and left-wing opponents.
- 'French values' -
While Biden fist-bumped bin Salman as he arrived in Riyadh, Macron shook hands on the steps of the Elysee Palace as he welcomed the prince. "He's shaking the hand for a long time of man whose hands are covered in blood," senior left-wing MP Alexis Corbiere told BFM television on Friday. As defense minister, bin Salman oversaw Saudi Arabia's military intervention in Yemen in 2015 against Iran-backed Huthi rebels who took control of the capital Sanaa. Allies of the French president defended a meeting that has been widely portrayed as a case study in "Realpolitik" -- putting practical considerations above principles in foreign policy. Analysts say Saudi Arabia is one of few countries worldwide with the capacity to increase its oil production, though its margin for manoeuvre is seen as limited. "There are partners, countries that do not all share the same democratic values as France," Public Services Minister Stanislas Guerini, a close ally of the president, told Europe 1 radio. "But I believe it would be a mistake to not speak, to not try to make things happen," he added. The role of the president was "to protect the French people," he said.
"French values, the voice of France, human rights, were carried last night, as always, by the president," he added.
- 'Scandalized' -
The head of Amnesty International Agnes Callamard told AFP she felt "profoundly troubled by the visit".The killing of Khashoggi was described by a UN probe as an "extrajudicial killing for which Saudi Arabia is responsible". U.S. intelligence agencies determined that the crown prince had "approved" the operation that led to Khashoggi's death. Riyadh denies this, blaming rogue operatives. "I am scandalized and outraged that Emmanuel Macron is receiving with all the honors the executioner of my fiance, Jamal Khashoggi," his fiancée Hatice Cengiz told AFP on Thursday. The French president first hosted bin Salman in 2018, when Macron took him to an art exhibition at the Louvre Museum, and travelled to the kingdom in December 2021 for further talks. The Saudi strongman stayed overnight at his Louis XIV chateau in Louveciennes west of Paris which he acquired in 2015, according to a source who asked not to be named. Despite its name, the castle was only built in 2009, by a company headed by Khashoggi's cousin Emad, and was described as "the world's most expensive home" at the time of purchase.

Macron Seeks Solutions to 4 Files with Saudi Crown Prince
Paris - Michel Abou Najem/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 29 July, 2022
The visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Paris, comes at the official invitation of French President Emmanuel Macron, and carries a common will to push partnership to broader horizons. Since Emmanuel Macron’s accession to the presidency in the spring of 2017, he has shown great interest in foreign policy. During the five years of his first term, the French president made great efforts on issues of the European Union, calling for more integration and “strategic independence” of the union, and seeking distinguished relations with former US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Macron was also active in the Middle East, but success was not often his ally, as we have seen in the Lebanese situation. His efforts also focused on Libya, Sudan and Iraq, as well as the fight against terrorism, the African Sahel region and the Mediterranean basin, and the large number of international conferences that he called for. After the shock he received in the last legislative elections, in which his coalition failed to obtain an absolute majority in Parliament, Macron undoubtedly wants to show that he is still effective on the international stage.
But what are the current goals and expectations of Paris from its endeavor to strengthen its relations with Saudi Arabia? There is a great French interest in reaching an understanding with Riyadh, in light of the energy crisis and its repercussions on the French consumer, a rise in the prices of petroleum products and electricity, in addition to the wave of inflation and the deterioration of the purchasing power. Macron is seeking a dialogue with Prince Mohammed bin Salman on energy, clean energy and nuclear energy issues. The French president wants, as his sources said on Thursday, to be the spokesperson of the European Union in his talks with the Saudi Crown Prince. Middle East and Arab world Researcher Agnes Levallois, said that Paris had a tripartite interest in strengthening its partnership with Riyadh, within the framework of “France’s desire to have a role in a region that is going through a very complex stage.” Several French sources revealed that Macron - who refers in all his interventions on the Gulf region to the need to maintain security and stability - was concerned about the phase that would follow the possible failure of efforts to return to the nuclear agreement with Iran.
The Vienna negotiations have not yet led to a result, and the exchange of accusations between Washington and Tehran do not point to a desire to reach a final agreement. Therefore, Macron is considering the possibility of calling for a regional-international meeting similar to the Baghdad conference, under French-international auspices, before the end of this year. Undoubtedly, such a meeting would have no meaning and impetus without Riyadh’s participation. On Thursday, sources in the Elysée said that discussions were underway over the conference that could be hosted by Jordan, adding that nothing was final yet. Other analysts noted that French diplomacy could play a role with the presence of an “opportunity” to re-launch the Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations that have been stalled since 2014, knowing that Macron was absent from this matter during his first term.
Agnes Levallois added that the French president needed the cooperation of Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Lebanese file, because of his fear of an institutional vacuum if the presidential elections do not take place on their scheduled date, and in the absence of an effective government. Francois Touazi, vice chairman of the MEDEF International France-Saudi Arabia Business Council, said that Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit “reflects the depth and solidity of the relationship between the two countries.”The two sides have always been able to rely on one another, “which enabled them to consolidate this multi-dimensional partnership in security, defense, economics, education and culture,” he underlined.
In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Touazi noted that the Russian-Ukraine war “makes the deepening of dialogue and cooperation between the two parties necessary in order to confront the consequences of this conflict and work together to develop solutions to get out of the crisis.”He added that Saudi Arabia’s ambitious Vision 2030, which will allow diversifying sources of income by boosting new development sectors, was an opportunity to strengthen the economic partnership with France, which ranks third among foreign investors in the Kingdom. French companies, which are present in various sectors in Saudi Arabia, including defense industries, renewable energy, health, transportation, tourism and entertainment, benefit from the great openness and the ambitious reforms adopted by the Kingdom.

US Says It is Now Up to Iran to Take the Deal or Reject It
London - Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsatt/Friday, 29 July, 2022
Negotiations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement have been completed, and it is now up to Iran to decide whether they're going to take that deal or not, announced a US official.
NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby stressed that the US administration remains committed to seeing Iran never achieve a nuclear weapons capability, reiterating the White House's position that diplomacy is the best path forward to see that outcome. Speaking at a press briefing, Kirby said that President Joe Biden has an obligation to "make sure if he can look after our national security interests in the region, make sure that we have the capability and the capacity to do that — to defend ourselves and to help defend our allies and partners against the range of other Iranian threatening behavior: their burgeoning ballistic missile capability, which continues to improve; their support for terrorist groups; their threats in the maritime environment."
Reuters quoted a French presidency official saying there is still time to save the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, but the ball remains in Tehran's court. EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, announced Tuesday that he proposed a new draft text to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying there is no room left for further significant compromises. Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian told Borrell over the phone that Iran "welcomes the continuation of diplomacy and negotiations." Abdollahian reiterated that if the US moves realistically toward finding a solution and reaching a deal, a good agreement will be at hand for all parties, Revival of the agreement seemed imminent last March, but the talks stalled due to last-minute Russian and Iranian demands to remove the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) from a US list of foreign terrorist organizations. Washington says Tehran added demands unrelated to the discussions about its nuclear program and has made worrying progress in its uranium enrichment program. The US administration made clear that it has no plans to remove the IRGC from the list, a move that will likely have limited impact, but it will anger a lot of US lawmakers. Western officials say that the longer Iran delays reviving the deal and continues to produce enriched uranium, the more difficult it will be to restore the deal to curb nuclear proliferation. EU's attempt at "proximity talks" failed last month in Doha, Qatar.Axios news website reported that the White House Middle East coordinator, Brett McGurk, believes it is "highly unlikely" to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement soon.nThe website quoted three sources as saying that McGurk told a group of think tank experts "that the reason there is no nuclear deal is that the Iranians are unable to make a decision." According to Axios, McGurk said his theory is that Iran wants the US "to add something to the pot" to help those who want a deal in the internal debate with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but "we are not going to do that." McGurk said the Biden administration intends to use sanctions and diplomatic isolation against Iran, "but not needlessly escalate the situation," and use force only as a last resort, according to the three sources. He said the divergence of views with Israel isn't about the issue of a possible military strike but about whether the US should still try to revive the 2015 nuclear deal or shift to pushing for a "longer and stronger" deal. Meanwhile, the US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, discussed with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi, diplomatic efforts to revive the nuclear agreement, according to the Omani Foreign Ministry. The Ministry said in a tweet that the two officials discussed various issues in common and the efforts to resume the nuclear agreement.

Saudi Arabia, Israel take baby steps toward normalization by exposing cooperation
The Media Line/Ynetnews/July 29, 2022
Analysis: Expert says more Israeli companies are operating openly in the kingdom, but process towards strengthening relation will be very slow; adds there are elements within Saudi Arabia resistant to normalization with Jewish state
The Media Line|
The announcement earlier this month that Saudi Arabia was lifting all restrictions on overflying its airspace came in the middle of the night.
The excitement in Israel was great, though the 2am announcement on Twitter showed less enthusiasm from Riyadh.
The decision was much anticipated in Jerusalem. It will allow Israeli airlines that until now had to detour around the Arabian Peninsula, to shorten their routes to Asia and Oceana, making their flights shorter, cheaper, and more competitive.
The announcement did not mention Israel by name. Rather Saudi Arabia’s civil aviation authority said the decision came “to open the kingdom’s airspace for all air carriers that meet the requirements of the authority for overflying.”
Over recent years, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been growing increasingly closer, but under the radar, motivated by mutual concerns over Iran. The removal of the flight restrictions comes after U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent trip to the region, a trip that highlighted the growing changes in the Middle East.
For decades Saudi Arabia has said that normalization with Israel can only take place after the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is resolved. While the airspace decision signals a departure from that policy, the modest manner in which the step was taken indicates there is still a long way to go in normalization between the two countries. But also in recent decades, often through back channels and third parties, Saudis and Israelis have established trade ties. Israeli tech companies, especially in the agriculture and water sectors, have found a thirsty market in the Arabian Peninsula.
Dr. Nirit Ofir, CEO and founder of National Projects & Investment in the Gulf and a researcher at Bar-Ilan University, said, “There are more Israeli companies operating openly in Saudi Arabia; we see entry permits for Israeli passport holders given more freely. There is more openness to Israel in the country.”
In 2020, when Israel signed the Abraham Accords with several Arab countries, Saudi Arabia was absent. Relations with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco were normalized. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, was not ready to take such a step. Still, normalization between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain could not have happened without the prince’s blessing, as Saudi Arabia is the strongest and most influential of the Gulf countries.
“The Saudis are operating with great caution,” said Ofir. “The lifting of airspace restrictions does not mean we will see full-fledged peace in the coming days or weeks.”
President Donald Trump speaks during the Abraham Accords signing ceremony on the South Lawn of the White House,
Mark Feldman, CEO and founder of Ziontours Jerusalem, said, “Don’t expect many packages to Riyadh or Jeddah in the near future. Whatever peace is achieved between Saudi Arabia and Israel will be akin to the peace with Egypt. Cool and correct will be the cornerstones of relations.”
The warm, peaceful relationships between Israel and the UAE, and between Israel and Morocco, differ greatly from the decades of cold but stable peace between Jerusalem and Cairo. The reasons for the difference are complex, but the root lies in ties that have not graduated from the government level to warm relations between peoples.
Last year, for the first time, an Israeli team participated in the Dakar Rally off-road endurance event in Saudi Arabia using their Israeli passports. Such open participation would have been unthinkable prior to the Abraham Accords.
The opening of the airspace could have major implications for Israel.n “This is a very important step as part of a slow but impressive process of strengthening relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” said Michael Harari, a policy fellow at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and a former senior Israeli diplomat.
“The significance is more political than economic,” he added.Israeli media also reported that direct flights between the countries will soon be available for Muslim pilgrims, saving them a great deal of money. This has not been confirmed by either side.
Muslim Israelis are waiting for direct flights to Mecca. Currently, people who want to participate in the Hajj pilgrimage have to travel through Jordan. The Saudi announcement has yet to be translated into altered flight paths. There are still no practical agreements in place that pave the way for the change. This could change in the coming weeks.“This will be a gradual process,” said Ofir. “The Saudis will want something in return, probably in the form of security arrangements.” “Getting closer to Israel is meant to give the Gulf states more confidence in the region, in terms of security,” said Hariri. “Israel is perceived as having an open door to the White House, which could help countries such as Saudi Arabia.”The Saudi government has to tread carefully as there are elements within the kingdom resistant to normalization with Israel. “If the Saudis feel such a step will promote their interest vis-à-vis Israel and the U.S., while not angering certain parts of society, they will promote it,” said Harari. Prime Minister Yair Lapid responded with enthusiasm to the Saudi decision but added that Jerusalem will work “with necessary caution” going forward. It was an acknowledgment of the complexities attached to the budding relations.
The two countries will likely continue their cooperation and trade ties, mostly behind the scenes. With time, more of these interactions may come to center stage. “There is no need to go further at this point. It is better not to endanger the process that we are witnessing with steps that are too big,” Hariri said.
*The story is written by Keren Setton and reprinted with permission from The Media Line

Blinken and Russia’s Lavrov have ‘frank’ discussion about prisoners
News Agencies/Arab News/July 29, 2022
WASHINGTON: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Friday said he has held a telephone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He pressed the Kremlin to accept the ‘substantial proposal’ that Washington has put forward to secure the release of two Americans detained in Russia.
In their first such conversation since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, the two top diplomats looked to stick to their existing positions, according to the readout of the call from Blinken and the Russian foreign ministry. “We had a frank and direct conversation,” Blinken told a news conference at the State Department. “I pressed the Kremlin to accept the substantial proposal that we put forth on the release of Paul Whelan and Brittney Griner,” he said.A US official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the call lasted about 25 minutes and it was “without polemics and was businesslike.”
Lavrov suggested to Blinken that the two sides return to quiet diplomacy on the issue of prisoner swaps. “Regarding the possible exchange of imprisoned Russian and US citizens, the Russian side strongly suggested a return to the practice of handling this in a professional way and using ‘quiet diplomacy’ rather than throwing out speculative information,” a Russian foreign ministry statement said. The United States this week announced that it made an offer to Russia, weeks ago, to secure the release of WNBA star Brittney Griner and former US Marine Paul Whelan but did not reveal what it was offering.
A source familiar with the situation said Washington was willing to exchange Russian arms trafficker Viktor Bout, who is serving a 25 year-prison sentence in the United States, as part of a deal.Families of Americans detained abroad, many of them by some of the top US adversaries, have been increasing pressure on US President Joe Biden, most recently in the case of two-time Olympic gold medallist Griner, who was arrested on drugs charges at a Moscow airport on Feb. 17 and could face up to 10 years in prison.Earlier at a news conference in Uzbekistan, Lavrov said talks on prisoner exchanges had been taking place since a summit in Geneva last year where President Vladimir Putin and Biden had agreed to nominate officials to look into the issue.
IMPOSE ADDITIONAL COSTS
Blinken said he also emphasized to Lavrov that the world expected Russia to fulfill its commitments under a deal with Ukraine struck in Turkey to reopen grain and fertilizer exports that have been blocked by war, which is deepening a worldwide food crisis. “Ambassador Brink, our ambassador to Ukraine, was in Odesa this morning. She confirmed the ships are loaded and ready to go...As I made clear, we’re looking to see that move forward as soon as possible,” he said. Lavrov told Blinken that it was the US sanctions that complicated the global food situation. The top US diplomat also warned Lavrov against going ahead with plans to further annex parts of Ukraine. “The world will not recognize annexations. We will impose additional significant costs on Russia if it moves forward with its plans,” he said. Lavrov said Russia will meet targets of its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine — the term Moscow uses to define its invasion of Ukraine, which it says is conducted in self-defense. Ukraine and its allies say the Russian assault is entirely unprovoked. Lavrov also told Blinken that ‘the continuous pumping of US and NATO weapons into the armed forces of Ukraine...only prolongs the agony of the regime in Kyiv prolonging the conflict and multiplying the casualties,” according to the Russian foreign ministry.

Fourth phase of Ukraine war with Russia could be decisive — if US sends more weapons | Opinion
Max Boot/Miami Herald/ July 29, 2022
The war in Ukraine has now entered its third phase.
Phase 1, beginning on Feb. 24, was Russia’s pell-mell attempt to take Kyiv. That resulted in failure thanks to terrible Russian logistics (remember the 40-mile convoy?) and a skillful Ukrainian defense making use of handheld weapons such as Stingers and Javelins supplied by the West.Phase 2 began in mid-April, when Russian dictator Vladimir Putin concentrated his forces on Luhansk province in the eastern Donbas region. That phase, characterized by relentless Russian artillery bombardment, ended in early July with the retreat of Ukrainian forces from Luhansk. In the third phase of the war, Ukrainian troops are holding a strong defensive position in neighboring Donetsk province (also part of Donbas) and effectively hitting back with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems and other longer-range weapons supplied by the West. The HIMARS, in particular, have been a game changer by allowing the Ukrainians to destroy more than 100 high-value targets such as Russian ammunition depots and command posts. A Ukrainian battalion commander told The Post that since the HIMARS strikes began, Russian shelling has been “10 times less.” Another Ukrainian officer told the Wall Street Journal: “It was hell over here. Now, it’s like paradise. Super quiet. Everything changed when we got the HIMARS.” President Volodymyr Zelensky says Ukrainian fatalities are down from between 100 and 200 a day to 30 a day. If Ukraine is able to fight back so effectively with only 12 HIMARS (soon to be 16), imagine what it could do with dozens more and, better still, Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which use the same platform but have nearly quadruple the range. These rocket systems should be supplemented by Western tanks and fighter aircraft. If the West were to supply all these weapons, Ukraine could mount a counteroffensive to take back lost land in the south and east and help end the war.
No third world war
The Biden administration is slowly supplying more HIMARS and, for the first time, is even discussing the provision of Western fighter aircraft (after nixing a Polish plan to send MiG-29s in March). But ATACMS appear to be off the table because, as national security adviser Jake Sullivan explained last week, the administration does not want to head “down the road towards a third world war.” Ukraine isn’t even allowed to use its HIMARS to end the shelling of its second-largest city, Kharkiv, because the Russian artillery batteries are located on Russian soil. This strategic calculus makes no sense. Does Sullivan really believe that Putin will launch World War III if the United States supplies rockets with a range of about 180 miles but will hold off as long as we’re supplying only rockets with a range of about 50 miles? Or that the provision of HIMARS, NASAMS air-defense systems, 155mm howitzers, Phoenix Ghost drones, Javelins and Stingers isn’t too provocative — but fighter aircraft and tanks would be? President Biden is right not to send U.S. forces into direct combat with the Russians, but everything else should be fair game, from ATACMS to F-16s to Abrams tanks. The Soviets didn’t hesitate to supply North Korea and North Vietnam with fighter aircraft to shoot down U.S. warplanes. (Soviet pilots even flew for North Korea.) Why shouldn’t we return the favor? At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, some feared that Putin was acting so irrationally that he might resort to nuclear weapons. But if the past five months have taught us anything, it is that, while the Butcher of Bucha is evil, he is not suicidal or irrational. Putin pulled back from Kyiv when it was revealed to be a losing cause and made sensible, if brutal, use of Russian artillery in Luhansk. Putin has basically ignored rumored Ukrainian strikes on military targets inside Russia. He hasn’t attacked Poland, which has become the main staging ground for weapons to Ukraine. He hasn’t lashed out since Finland and Sweden set about joining NATO, thereby putting more NATO troops on Russia’s border.
This is of a piece with Putin’s history. He is a classic bully who picks on the weak (Georgia, Ukraine, the Syrian rebels) while shying away from direct confrontations with the strong (the United States, NATO). Putin is rational enough to realize that if his military is having trouble handling Ukraine, it would have no chance in a war with the Atlantic alliance. The United States matches Russia in nuclear forces and far exceeds it in conventional capabilities. Biden is in a far stronger position than Putin, but he is acting as if he were weaker. Stop letting Putin deter us from doing everything we can to aid Ukraine. Putin should be more afraid of us than we are of him. The war has already proved costly to Russia: It has lost about 1,000 tanks, and roughly 60,000 soldiers have been killed or wounded. There won’t be much left of the Russian military if the Ukrainians are armed with lots more HIMARS and ATACMS, along with tanks and fighter aircraft. The fourth phase of the war could prove decisive — but only if the United States finally makes a commitment to help Ukraine win.
*Max Boot is a Washington Post columnist, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of “The Road Not Taken: Edward Lansdale and the American Tragedy in Vietnam.”
(c) 2022 The Washington Post

Palestinian teen shot dead by Israeli army
Agence France Presse/July 29, 2022
A Palestinian teenager was killed on Friday in clashes with the Israeli army in the occupied West Bank, the Palestinian health ministry said. Amjad Nashaat Abu Alia, 16, "died of critical wounds sustained by live bullets in the chest", during clashes near the village of Al-Mughayer, close to Ramallah, the ministry said in a statement. An AFP photographer at the scene reported 300 to 400 Palestinians had gathered for a protest march against Israeli settlement expansion in the area. Clashes erupted when Israeli settlers and Palestinians began throwing rocks at each other. The Israeli army said it had intervened after "hundreds of Palestinians instigated a violent riot". The army and border police responded with "riot dispersal means and live fire," the military statement to AFP added. It came after two Palestinians were killed during an overnight raid by the Israeli military in Nablus early on Sunday, in what the army described as a shootout with gunmen. At least 53 Palestinians have been killed since late March, mostly in the West Bank, among them suspected militants and also non-combatants, including Al Jazeera journalist Shireen Abu Akleh, a Palestinian-American dual national, who was covering an Israeli raid in Jenin. Over the same period, 19 people -- the majority Israeli civilians inside Israel -- have been killed, mainly in attacks by Palestinians. Three Israeli Arab attackers have also been killed.

New constitution gives some Tunisians hope, others concern
Associated Press/July 29, 2022
Tunisian voters have approved a referendum on a new constitution that gives more powers to the country's president. It's a step that brings hope to many in the struggling North African nation, but critics warn it could return Tunisia to autocracy and say low turnout marred the vote's legitimacy. Some people interviewed by The Associated Press this week celebrated the result of Monday's referendum and expressed support for President Kais Saied, who spearheaded the project and proposed the text himself. Others said they worry about what the changes could mean for the future of democracy in the country. The overhauled constitution gives sweeping executive powers to the president and weakens the influence of the legislative and judicial branches of the government. Adel, a 51-year-old plumber who refused to give his last name due to fear of political reprisals, said that while he supported Saied, he did not participate in Monday's referendum because he thought the proposed changes gave the executive branch too much power. "This constitution he made was not for the long-term. Those who will come after Saied will do whatever they want without being held accountable," he said.
In 2011, Tunisians rose up against Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the country's strongman president, and kicked off the Arab Spring protests in North Africa and the Middle East. Tunisia was the only nation to emerge from the protests with a democratic government.
Saied won the presidency in 2019 with over 70% of the vote. He continues to enjoy widespread popular support; recent polls put his approval rating at well over 50%. The referendum took place a year to the day after Saied froze Tunisia's parliament and dismissed his government. Opponents derided the moves as "a coup," but many Tunisians supported the president's actions due to exasperation with political elites and years of economic stagnation. In the same way, many citizens think the new constitution will end years of political deadlock and reduce the influence of the country's largest political party, Ennahdha. Others saw a "yes" vote as a vote for Saied and a chance to change their fortunes. Saida Masoudi, 49, a fast-food seller in a Tunis suburb who voted for the revised constitution, said she hoped the changes would pave the way to economic reforms and lower living costs.
"We just want the country to improve and reform. That's why I participated in this referendum, so that the country will return to how it was before" she said, adding that she thinks Tunisians lived better under Ben Ali than they do today.
However, Heba Morayef, Amnesty International's regional director, called the constitution's adoption "deeply worrying." She said in a statement that the revisions were drafted behind closed doors in a process controlled by Saied.
"The new constitution dismantles many of the guarantees to the independence of the judiciary, removes protection for civilians from military trials and grants the authorities the power to restrict human rights or renege on international human rights commitments in the name of religion" Morayef said. Official preliminary results showed about one-third of registered voters cast ballots, with 94.6% giving their approval.
Opposition leaders had called for a boycott of the referendum, saying the process was flawed, and they argue the turnout reflected discomfort with the changes to Tunisia's system of government. "The referendum was rigged from the start, with no participation threshold provided for," International Commission of Jurists regional director Said Benarbia said. "The low turnout and the opaque, illegal process by which the adoption of the constitution was made possible do not give the president any mandate or legitimacy to change Tunisia's constitutional order."
Several people the Associated Press spoke with said they did not vote in the referendum. Some said they were uninterested in politics, while others said a new constitution would do little to change their quality of life. Several did not understand the changes it would introduce. "I didn't vote because none of this interests me," Khalil Riahi, a 26-year-old DJ, said. "Whether it's Kais Saied doing this or someone else, it's all the same to me. Nothing will change."Monica Marks, Professor of Middle East politics at NYU Abu Dhabi, says that many Tunisians have grown tired, disillusioned and cynical in recent years but that they "never called for a complete up-ending of their political system"."What they've been calling for, for years, is for effective leadership from government that makes a real tangible difference in their everyday lives and solves the economic challenges that they're desperately grappling with" says Marks, explaining that many are attached to the idea that "one man alone can take the system, break it and maybe fix it." "There are still a lot of Tunisians who believe that Saied is Mr. Fix It... They believe he is the man who will clean up everything, even though he's ruled by powers of personal decree for an entire year, and their situation tangibly hasn't changed."

What's behind the storming of Iraq's parliament?
Associated Press/July 29, 2022
The followers of the influential populist Shiite cleric came by the thousands to storm Iraq's parliament. Just as quickly, the protesters dispersed at his command.
Mass mobilization and control is a well-worn strategy of Muqtada al-Sadr, a mercurial figure who has emerged as a powerful force in Iraq's cutthroat political scene with a nationalist, anti-Iran agenda. Wednesday's storming of parliament came after al-Sadr's Tehran-backed political rival, former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, nominated a pro-Iran politician to be Iraq's new leader. A look at how Iraq got to this point:
WHAT LED TO THE POLITICAL PARALYSIS?
Nearly 10 months after national elections were held, Iraq has been unable to form a new government. That's the longest period since the 2003 U.S. invasion that reset the political order. The lingering impasse has immobilized the already-fragile state, with no clear path out. Iran, meanwhile, is working behind the scenes to stitch together a fragmented Shiite Muslim elite, with the potential to disturb the delicate political balance with the U.S. and usher in a new era of inter-sectarian violence. That paralysis — driven largely by the personal vendettas of elites — has converted Iraq's political system into a high-stakes chess game with destabilizing consequences. Ordinary Iraqis have no choice but to watch. Wednesday's protest was meant as a cautionary message to al-Sadr's adversaries that he cannot be ignored while they try to form a government without him.
WHAT MOVES HAVE THESE POWERFUL PLAYERS MADE?
Both al-Sadr and al-Maliki are powerful in their own right. Although al-Sadr's alliance won the most seats in October's parliamentary election, squabbling political parties failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to pick a president -- an important step before the prime minister can be selected. After the negotiations bogged down, al-Sadr withdrew his bloc from parliament and announced he was exiting talks on forming a government. Able to summon his followers seemingly at the flick of a finger, al-Sadr can bring the country to a standstill. Expectations of street protests swirled in the capital of Baghdad since he quit the talks. Al-Maliki heads the Coordination Framework alliance, a group led by Shiite Iran-backed parties. With their chief impediment gone, the Framework replaced al-Sadr's resigned MPs. Although the move was legal, it was also provocative, giving the Framework the majority needed in parliament. On Monday, the alliance announced Mohammed al-Sudani, Iraq's former labor and social affairs minister, as its candidate for prime minister. He is seen by al-Sadr loyalists as a figure through whom al-Maliki can exert control. Al-Maliki had wanted the premier post himself, but audio recordings were leaked in which he purportedly cursed and criticized al-Sadr and even his own Shiite allies. That effectively sank his candidacy.
WHAT ROLE DOES RELIGIOUS FERVOR PLAY?
In galvanizing his followers, al-Sadr harnessed the anger over al-Sudani's nomination as well as rising religious fervor ahead of the important Muslim holiday of Ashura. It marks the killing of the Prophet Muhammed's grandson, Imam Hussein, and Shiites typically march by the thousands to commemorate the holiday, with emotions running high in the days leading up to it. Wednesday's protest in parliament was unique for another reason: Riot police did not intervene, and there was little violence. Toby Dodge, an associate fellow at Chatham House, saw this as a sign that neither side wants any escalating bloodshed. "There were three big messages: This is theater, there was no violence yesterday and that is deliberate on both sides," Dodge said. "This is a fight within the elite; it has nothing to do with the rest of society. This elite lost its legitimacy across society." Even if the al-Maliki and al-Sadr camps are able to sort out their differences, there's a third big player in Iraqi politics: the Kurds. The two main Kurdish parties — the KDP and the PUK — also are deeply divided. They would first need to agree on a candidate for Iraq's presidency. The KDP had previously allied with al-Sadr, while the PUK belongs to al-Maliki's Framework faction.
HOW MIGHT THE BATTLES CONTINUE OUTSIDE PARLIAMENT?
Neither the al-Sadr nor the al-Maliki factions can afford to be excluded from the political process, because both have much to lose. Both sides have civil servants entrenched in Iraq's state institutions, deployed to do their bidding when circumstances require by halting decision-making and creating bureaucratic obstructions. By the time his eight-year tenure as prime minister ended in 2014, al-Maliki built an omnipresent deep state by installing civil servants in key institutions, including the judiciary. Meanwhile, al-Sadr planted a parallel deep state with key appointments that peaked in 2018. Because of this. the Framework knows that even without a presence in parliament, al-Sadr will wield significant power within the state, as well as on the street, if al-Maliki's supporters choose to move forward without the cleric's agreement. Both sides have also lost some popular support following massive protests in 2019 against the government that were put down by security forces that left 600 dead and thousands wounded. That impact was clear in the October 2021 election. Despite winning the largest share of seats, al-Sadr's vote totals were several thousand fewer than previous balloting. Turnout was only 43%.
WHAT IS THE IRANIAN ROLE?
Despite the consequences, the Framework has signaled its readiness to move ahead with the formation of a government. Lawmaker Mohammed Sadoun, a member of the Framework, described Wednesday's protest as an attempted coup but said it wouldn't deter the alliance's efforts. "We will not allow it. We are involved in the process of forming a government and we have sufficient numbers to elect the president and vote for the next government," he said. Communication and messaging from the alliance shows it is preparing for instability. "They don't expect the streets to be quiet, and they are preparing for that," said Hamdi al-Malik, an Associate Fellow with the Washington Institute. The fairly quick nomination of al-Sudani is a testament to Iran's efforts to bring together the Shiite parties in the alliance. It marked a dramatic turnaround since the election, when Iranian-backed parties lost two-thirds of their seats. Esmail Ghaani, commander of Iran's paramilitary Quds Force, which is part of the Revolutionary Guard and answerable only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has made numerous trips to Baghdad in recent months. His mission has been to help the parties stay united and agree on a premier candidate, according to officials close to the negotiations who spoke on condition of anonymity to talk about the discussions. Ghaani was in the capital during Wednesday's protests and urged faction leaders not to provoke al-Sadr, according to one of the officials.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 29-30/2022
Iran's Deepening Military Expansion Into Europe
Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/July 29, 2022
The Iranian regime's decision to give its backing to Russia's military offensive against Ukraine... represents an alarming expansion in Iran's military ambitions beyond the Middle East.
Arguably Khamenei's most revealing comment during the visit was his call for Iran and Russia to increase what he termed "reciprocal cooperation" between the two countries to counter the threat of Western sanctions.
The concern now, say Western security officials, is that the commercial ties between the two countries will lead to closer military cooperation.
Iran's very public displays of support for Russia certainly undermine the long-standing assumption of American and European policymakers that the Iranian threat, allowing Iran unlimited nuclear weapons, relates only to the Middle East -- and specifically against Israel.
US President Joe Biden's confused position on the Iran issue has been further exposed by the head of Britain's MI6 intelligence agency, who told this month's Aspen Security Forum that, in his view, Iran had shown little interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal.
The truth of the matter is that Mr Biden's policy on Iran has become completely untenable, and the sooner he and his officials recognise their courtship of Tehran is doomed to end in failure, the better it will be for all concerned.
The Iranian regime's decision to give its backing to Russia's military offensive against Ukraine represents an alarming expansion in Iran's military ambitions beyond the Middle East. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi hold a meeting in Tehran on July 19, 2022.
Iran's deepening involvement in supporting the Russian war effort against Ukraine should serve as a wake up call to Western leaders that Iran's military threat is no longer solely confined to the Middle East.
Ever since the ayatollahs seized control of the country more than 40 years ago, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's standard bearers, have mostly confined their military activities to the Middle East region, whether it is waging war against neighbouring countries like Iraq or threatening Israel through its proxies in Lebanon and Syria.
The only occasions when the IRGC has ventured beyond the Middle East has been to carry out terrorist operations, such as the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Argentina that killed 85 people and wounded more than 300, or the recent wave of terrorist attacks it has carried out in Europe.
The Iranian regime's decision to give its backing to Russia's military offensive against Ukraine therefore represents an alarming expansion in Iran's military ambitions beyond the Middle East.
According to Western security sources, there has been a marked escalation in Tehran's involvement in the conflict since Russian President Vladimir Putin's summit in Tehran this month, where he met with key figures in the Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the country's hardline president, Ebrahim Raisi.
The summit ended with Khamenei praising Putin for launching his invasion of Ukraine, and claiming that Russia would have been the victim of Nato aggression if he had not made the first move.
While describing war as "brutal and hard," Iran's leader suggested that had Russia not "taken the initiative, the other side, with its own initiative would have created a war anyway.... If the road is open to Nato, it knows no boundaries, and if it was not stopped in Ukraine, it would start the same war some time later under the pretext of Crimea."
Arguably Khamenei's most revealing comment during the visit was his call for Iran and Russia to increase what he termed "reciprocal cooperation" between the two countries to counter the threat of Western sanctions.
One of the first tangible signs of the deepening cooperation between Moscow and Tehran has been the signing of a $40 billion energy memorandum of understanding between the Russian energy giant Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company.
Russia and Iran have already been cooperating on energy issues, with Tehran offering to help Russia avoid Western sanctions imposed following the Ukraine invasion by making available its global oil-smuggling network.
The concern now, say Western security officials, is that the commercial ties between the two countries will lead to closer military cooperation.
US officials have reported that a team of Russian military experts have twice visited an airbase in central Iran to make a detailed assessment of Iranian-made drones.
This follows a report by the US National Security Council that Iran has offered to provide hundreds of drones to aid Russia's war effort in Iran.
There have even been unconfirmed reports by Iranian opposition groups that the IRGC is planning to send troops to fight along Russian forces, which would be the first time that Iranian forces have been deployed on European soil since the 1979 revolution.
Iran's very public displays of support for Russia certainly undermine the long-standing assumption of American and European policymakers that the Iranian threat, allowing Iran unlimited nuclear weapons, relates only to the Middle East -- and specifically against Israel.
This belief is one of the reasons that Britain, France and Germany, the three European signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal, have given their backing to the Biden administration's efforts to revive the agreement.
Iran's active support for Russia in its war against Ukraine, which is receiving military backing from the Nato alliance, completely refutes that argument, and should force both American and European negotiators, as a matter of their own national security, to seriously revise their approach to the negotiations.
The expanding military partnership between Russia and Iran is certainly bad news for the Biden administration, which has invested a great deal of political capital in reviving the nuclear talks, but now finds itself trying to negotiate with a country that is actively supporting its adversary in the Ukraine conflict.
US President Joe Biden's confused position on the Iran issue has been further exposed by the head of Britain's MI6 intelligence agency, who told this month's Aspen Security Forum that, in his view, Iran had shown little interest in negotiating a new nuclear deal.
"I don't think the Supreme Leader of Iran wants to cut a deal," he stated. "I don't think the Iranians want it."
Such a blunt assessment by the head of one of Europe's key intelligence services, one that has close ties with the American security establishment, certainly makes embarrassing reading for the Biden administration which, despite all the evidence to the contrary, still believes that the Iranian regime is willing to make a deal.The truth of the matter is that Mr Biden's policy on Iran has become completely untenable, and the sooner he and his officials recognise their courtship of Tehran is doomed to end in failure, the better it will be for all concerned.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

The Final Frontier Soon May No Longer Belong to All of Us
Jessica F. Green/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 29/2022
The Russian government has said that it will‌ withdraw from the International Space Station‌ “after 2024.” Instead of choosing multilateral cooperation, it plans to build its own station and send cosmonauts there to continue space research and exploration.
Russia’s announcement sounds ominous — particularly given its invasion of Ukraine — but ‌this move, part of a broader trend away from multilateralism in international space law, is but one recent signal of the fraying of international space cooperation. Another was the Artemis Accords, a legal framework designed to potentially regulate future commercial activities in outer space, which was created under the Trump‌ administration and upheld by the Biden ‌‌administration. Such actions threaten multilateralism beyond Earth and portend a future where space may no longer belong, equally, to all people.
A number of UN treaties‌‌ regulate outer space, and ‌strong legal norms ‌bolster those global rules. The foundational agreement is the Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which lays out ‌‌the principles that govern outer space, the moon and other celestial bodies. Signed in the middle of the Cold War, the treaty was a symbol of the triumph of science over politics: States could cooperate in space, even as the prospect of mutual destruction loomed on Earth.
Currently, more than 100 countries — including the United States and Russia — are parties to the ‌treaty, which establishes outer space as a peaceful zone, ‌‌prohibits the use or installation of weapons of mass destruction‌‌ and ‌designates space as “the province of all mankind.” ‌ ‌States cannot make claims of sovereignty or ‌‌appropriate territory. ‌The treaty also calls for scientific cooperation among states, with the belief that such cooperation will promote “friendly relations” among countries and their peoples. In short, the treaty intends that all nations benefit‌ from any activities conducted in space.
The symbolic value of the treaty is obvious: Nationality recedes into the background when astronauts are floating in space. But beyond that, it has created standards and practices to prevent environmental contamination of the moon and other celestial bodies. It promotes data sharing, including about the many objects, like satellites and spacecraft, launched into space, which helps to avoid collisions. And its codified norms of the common heritage of mankind, peaceful use and scientific cooperation help preserve multilateralism in the face of states’ derogations.
But the looming prospect of the commercialization of space has begun to test the limits of international space law. In 2020, NASA, alone, created the Artemis Accords, which challenge the foundational multilateral principles of ‌prior space agreements. These are rules primarily drafted by the United States that other countries are now adopting. This is not collaborative multilateral rule making but rather the export of US laws abroad to a coalition of the willing.
Moreover, the accords open up the possibility of mining the moon or other celestial bodies for resources. They create “safety zones” where states may extract resources, though the document states that these activities must be undertaken in accordance with the ‌Outer Space Treaty. Legal experts point out that these provisions could violate the principle of nonappropriation, which prohibits countries from declaring parts of space as their sovereign territory. Others suggest that it is important to get in front of the changing technological landscap‌e, arguing that when mining the moon becomes possible, there should already be rules in place to regulate such activities‌. Failure to do so could result in a ‌‌crisis similar to that around seabed mining‌‌, which is poised to begin even though UN rules have yet to be finalized.
Though well codified in international law, norms of cooperation are only as strong as the state policies and activities that reinforce them. When countries, especially powerful ones, create rules that run counter to these norms, multilateral institutions can unravel or, worse, become irrelevant. Such unraveling can create opportunities for updated rules that better reflect changes in world politics and technology. But it can also result in a less equitable institution that favors powerful nations and provides an unfair opportunity to reap economic benefits. For this reason, developing countries have long been staunch proponents of “the province of all mankind” as a way to counterbalance the power of wealthier nations and ensure their right to benefit financially from extraction of global resources.
In the end, Russia’s withdrawal from the International Space Station‌ is but one piece of a larger set of fluid issues in space governance. ‌Russia and the United States — powerful, spacefaring states — have taken steps that challenge existing rules and norms. Russia alone cannot dismantle the collective efforts to maintain space as a peaceful zone of scientific research and exploration, but the current system is in trouble and is likely to be replaced with US-made regulations that allow for the future commercialization of space. That future is the real threat to multilateralism and to humanity’s rights to the final frontier.

Biden and the Masochistic Nail
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/July, 29/2022
«How can one help the Iranian people restore their normal life?”
This was the question that a Japanese friend put to me in 2019 in what at the time seemed to be a casual chat in a Persian restaurant in London. Three years later I have just learned that the question had been something more than a dinner-table note to prolong the conversation. The friend in question had been sounding out a few people about the tactics that then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should pursue during a visit to Tehran to persuade the ruling mullahs to lead Iran back into “normal life.”
Following my old habit of writing down an account of such meetings for possible use in the future, I jotted the main segments of my response the same evening.
The notes start like this: There is no way that you or anyone else could help the Iranian people return to normalcy as long as the present regime is in place in Tehran. A people that finds itself in the hands of a brutal authoritarian regime that claims a divine mandate and is ready to do whatever it takes to remain in power, no holds bar, is beyond help by any outsider with the best of intentions.
If you help the Islamic Republic improve its economy, the bulk of the proceeds will go to strengthening the apparatus of repression, with the people receiving mere crumbs to keep their mouths shut.
At the same time, regime propaganda will spread the tale that it was thanks to its “revolutionary ardor” that the evil foreigners had to offer a few concessions. The “arrogant powers” were retreating under the blows of the new rising power of Islam destined to conquer the whole world and convert the Japanese to duodecimain Shiism.
Worse still, regime propaganda would claim that what the “evil foreigner” was offering presented only a fraction of what he had stolen from the Islamic Republic and that greater struggle against the enemy would force him to offer even more concessions.
If you make a deal with the supposedly “reasonable” faction within the regime, its rivals will do whatever they can to sabotage the deal. Haven’t you noticed that each time that the faction you consider as reasonable comes close to normalization, other factions start seizing hostages, putting bombs in your cities, or raiding your embassies to derail the process?
Over the past four decades, more than two dozen countries have tried to sweeten the Tehran mullahs with all manner of carrots. Germany gave the Islamic Republic a most-favored-nation status. France offered exceptional trade guarantees. The US apologized for unknown and non-existent “wrongs” it was supposed to have done to Islam.
President George WH Bush held secret meetings with Tehran emissaries, asserting that “goodwill begets goodwill.” President Barack Obama even smuggled $1.7 billion in cash to “help the Iranian people” but the money went to the regime’s repressive machine. Each time, however, that cursed “goodwill” led to the seizing of new hostages and a more virulent campaign of vilification against “the evil foreign powers.”
Whatever helps a foreign power with the best intentions could offer will go to the regime, not to the Iranian people.
Remember how Prince Charles of Great Britain, Queen Rania of Jordan and US President George W Bush helped collect vast sums to help the earthquake-stricken people of Bam in southeast Iran? Well, not a single farthing reached those people while Khomeinist propaganda claimed that “the evil foreigner” was using humanitarian aid as a cover for espionage and the conversion of Iranians to “canceled (manuskh) religions such as Christianity.
Well, if offering help is useless what about doing harm as a means of changing the situation?
That, too, wouldn’t work.
Pinprick attacks are easily ducked and any damage they might do is directed away from the regime toward the people. After all, the 8-year war with Iraq didn’t shake the regime but claimed over a million lives, wrecked four Iranian provinces, and produced 3.5 million displaced persons. In April 1988, the US Navy sank the Islamic Revolutionary Guard’s navy after an 18-hour sea battle in which the latter played sitting duck. But that didn’t prevent the regime from claiming it had won the greatest naval victory in Iran’s history and driven the Americans out of “sacred Islamic waters.”
Even the accidental downing of an Iranian passenger ‘plane was used by regime propaganda as a prop for inciting popular anger and xenophobic sentiments disguised as nationalism in favor of a regime opposed to anything resembling patriotism.
The Islamic Republic’s “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei makes no bones about the nature of his regime; “We shall never become normal,” he says, licking his lips in mock defiance. In one of his numerous authorized biographies he says that his favorite poem is a couplet by his fellow- Mash’hadi poet Bahar:
“The steadfastness and resistance of the nail-
“deserves to be a model for mankind.
“The more they hit the nail on the head,
“The firmer it becomes in its place!”
It would be useless to tell Khamenei that human beings are different from nails and that, even then, the masochistic nail is a mere object in a man’s hand that hits it on the head to fasten it in a place he has chosen.
So, if the carrots are eaten only to sharpen the teeth and the sticks are diverted to beat the ordinary folk and not regime “deciders”, what is to be done? One answer is to let them stew in their juice until they rot in their contradictions. This is what happened to the Soviet Union which was fed endless juicy carrots and hit by many prickly sticks but could not alter course until it collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions.
Truth to tell, however, that is a way of dodging the question that Abe might have posed. A better answer might have been “no one knows!” Only the French, being Cartesians, think that if there is a question there must also be at least one answer. And sometimes there may even be answers to non-existent questions.
Anyway, the late Abe went to Tehran to play peacemaker, he was insulted and told to return home empty-handed. It is interesting that President Joe Biden or whoever is his ventriloquist still thinks they can normalize the quintessentially abnormal.

The US and Russia Need to Start Talking Before It’s Too Late
Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro/The New York Times
In the five months since Russia launched its war in Ukraine, the United States has pledged about $24 billion in military aid to Ukraine. That’s more than four times Ukraine’s 2021 defense budget. America’s partners in Europe and beyond have pledged an additional $12 billion, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
And yet these tens of billions still fall short of the Ukrainian government’s wish list for weapons, which President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government announced last month. This divergence between what Ukraine wants and what its Western partners are prepared to give reflects the reality that Western leaders are pulled in two directions. They are committed to helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia’s aggression, but they are also trying to prevent the conflict from escalating into a major power war.
But escalation, though incremental and thus far contained in Ukraine, is already underway. The West is providing more and more powerful weapons, and Russia is unleashing more and more death and destruction. For as long as both Russia and the West are determined to prevail over the other in Ukraine and prepared to devote their deep reserves of weapons to achieve that goal, further escalation seems almost preordained.
The United States and its allies should certainly continue providing Ukraine with the matériel it needs, but they should also — in close consultation with Kyiv — begin opening channels of communication with Russia. An eventual cease-fire should be the goal, even as the path to it remains uncertain.
Starting talks while the fighting rages would be politically risky and would require significant diplomatic efforts, particularly with Ukraine — and success is anything but guaranteed. But talking can reveal the possible space for compromise and identify a way out of the spiral. Otherwise, this war could eventually bring Russia and NATO into direct conflict.
The current US approach assumes that would happen only if the Ukrainians are given particular systems or capabilities that cross a Russian red line. So when President Biden recently announced his decision to provide Ukraine with the multiple-launch rocket system that Kyiv says it desperately needs, he deliberately withheld the longest-range munitions that could strike Russia. The premise of the decision was that Moscow will escalate — i.e., launch an attack against NATO — only if certain types of weapons are provided or if they are used to target Russian territory. The goal is to be careful to stop short of that line while giving the Ukrainians what they need to “defend their territory from Russian advances,” as Mr. Biden said in a statement in June.
The logic is dubious. The Kremlin’s focus is precisely on making advances on Ukrainian territory. The problem is not that providing Ukraine with some specific weapon could cause escalation but rather that if the West’s support of Ukraine succeeded in stemming Russia’s advance, that would constitute an unacceptable defeat for the Kremlin. And a Russian battlefield victory is equally unacceptable to the West.
If Russia continues to push farther into Ukraine, Western partners would likely provide yet more and better weapons. If those weapons allow Ukraine to reverse Russia’s gains, Moscow may feel compelled to double down — and if it is really losing, it might well consider direct attacks against NATO. In other words, there’s no mutually acceptable outcome right now. But talks could help identify the compromises needed to find one.
The determination of both the West and Russia to do whatever it takes to prevail in Ukraine is the main driver of escalation. Western leaders should understand that the risk of escalation stems from the complete incompatibility of their goals with the Kremlin’s; carefully calibrating Western military support to Ukraine might be sensible, but it is probably beside the point. The impact of those weapons on the war, which is nearly impossible to know in advance, is what matters.
The lack of precise Russian red lines might mean that supplying the longer-range munitions Biden is withholding would not be as problematic as feared. But even if no specific weapon system will itself cause a major escalation, simply throwing more and better weapons into the mix is unlikely to solve the problem. Western weapons have clearly sustained the Ukrainian military on the battlefield, but the Russians have been willing to counter with whatever level of resources and destruction will be necessary to win or at least not to lose.
We are witnessing a classic spiral in which both sides feel compelled to do more as soon as the other side begins to make some progress. The best way to prevent that dynamic from getting out of control is to start talking before it’s too late.

Russia Created a Refugee Crisis, and Now Putin Is Weaponizing It
Ivana Stradner and Iulia Sabina-Joja/The Dispatch/July 29/2022
With Russia causing two migration crises—one by bloodshed in the east and the other by famine in the south—the United States must act now.
Vladimir Putin’s hybrid war in Ukraine has created a multifaceted humanitarian crisis that the Kremlin plans to weaponize against the West to further provoke instability and chaos. Refugees have poured out of Ukraine since his February 24 invasion, and Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s agricultural sector—from grain-export blockades to theft to strikes on agricultural facilities—are creating disruptions to the global food supply that are likely to create even more refugees worldwide. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is touring Africa this week, blaming the West for the food crisis. Western leaders must realize the full destabilizing potential of Russia’s weaponization of the refugee crisis. In response, the United States should combine conventional military support with multilateral information operations to counter Russia’s plans.
We know Putin’s playbook well. After Putin’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine, 1 million Ukrainians took refuge in Poland. Putin’s 2015 intervention in Syria pushed 1.4 million refugees into the European Union. While the effects of refugee crises are not as apparent as other wartime security threats, these refugee surges exacerbated and caused other social crises, which then contributed to the rise of the far right across Europe.
As Western leaders have delayed a response to the refugee crisis, the Kremlin has built on its successes. While refugee rates from Putin’s conflicts in 2014 and 2015 were 1 million per year, Putin’s current war in Ukraine has already displaced 13 million Ukrainians. The Kremlin has engaged in tactics like missile terrorism, where troops launch missiles at Ukrainian towns to sow terror and push more refugees west. While the West continues to debate whether Putin would consider fighter jets for Ukrainian defense an escalation, Ukraine is running out of fighter jets and its missile defense system is insufficient to protect civilians. Ratcheting up its missile terrorism is only one way that the Kremlin could intensify the refugee flow to the West. The Kremlin could also open a second front in Ukraine’s western regions by invading Lviv from Belarus, which would push up to 10 million Ukrainians toward the European Union. This crisis would be especially acute because millions from Ukraine’s east have sought safe haven in the country’s west, and Poland and Slovakia next door have already taken in all the refugees they can handle.
Putin’s war has also increased the potential for influxes of refugees into Europe from Africa. Putin has implemented grain blockades, stolen grain, and targeted agricultural facilities to attack the global food supply. Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket” of Europe, with Russia and Ukraine exporting a third of global wheat supplies. While rising food prices have impacted the whole world, countries in Africa are being hit the hardest. With countries like Tunisia, Somalia, Libya, and Eritrea importing almost half of their wheat from Ukraine, many of the Food and Agriculture Organization’s projected 47 million people who will experience “acute food insecurity” from the war will be in Africa. Nothing suggests that the Kremlin will stop. A deal to lift Russia’s Black Sea blockade took months to negotiate. The morning after agreeing to the deal Moscow struck Odesa’s port, the very place from which Ukrainian grain is transported to Africa and the Middle East. As of Wednesday, 80 ships are ready to leave Ukrainian ports but have been unable. Further, finding workers willing to serve on the crews of these ships is proving a challenge.
As Russia provokes this food crisis, it has been spreading disinformation in Africa to redirect resentment toward the West. In May, Russian U.N. Ambassador Vasiliy Nebenzya asserted that Europe was “hoarding” grain to use in “grain for weapons” exchanges with Ukraine. Within Africa, Russia’s embassies in Egypt and Zimbabwe reported that “illegal unilateral sanctions” and “Western interference” were to blame.
Many Africans will likely attempt to migrate to Europe and “generate instability in the EU,” according to Yale history professor Timothy Snyder. Placing the blame on the West in this way creates the potential for extreme resentment towards the West and adds to the already existing risk of instability and conflict in Western Europe. With Russia causing two migration crises—one by bloodshed in the east and the other by famine in the south—the United States must act now. In Ukraine, Washington must deliver the military capabilities needed to stop the Kremlin’s missile terrorism, such as fighter jets and air defense systems. In Africa, the U.S. must counter Russian disinformation campaigns. While a recent State Department report on “the Global Food Crisis” is a good starting point to spread awareness, the U.S. should also, with the help of likeminded democracies, wage an information campaign on social media platforms. Content should include short social media videos, “myth vs. fact” analyses, and other information related to the food crisis to debunk Russian disinformation campaigns. The U.S. and others should also conduct preemptive information campaigns in Europe to warn audiences about Moscow’s plans.
The refugee crises caused by Putin’s war in Ukraine pose a serious threat to the domestic stability of countries in the EU. The U.S. must rally its European partners and respond as a united front with military aid and information campaigns before it is too late.
*Ivana Stradner is an adviser to the Barish Center for Media Integrity at the Foundation of Defense of Democracies, where her research focuses on Russia and information operations. Iulia Sabina-Joja teaches at Georgetown and George Washington University, runs the Middle East Institute’s Black Sea program in Washington, D.C., and is co-host of the AEI podcast “Eastern Front.” Follow Ivana on Twitter @ivanastradner. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Security issues are latest test of Turkish-Iraqi relations
Sinem Cengiz/Arab News/July 30/2022
Geography is the first principle that cannot be changed in international relations, and Turkey, Iraq and Iran remain central to each other’s strategic calculations in the region they share, with the nature of their relationship continuing to affect regional balances.
The triangular relationship between three neighbors has been dominated for decades by intertwined issues related to security, water, and the policies of global and regional forces. While economic and political factors should not be disregarded, the security domain is the most powerful variable informing the link between Ankara, Baghdad and Tehran.
Turkish-Iraqi relations are once again in crisis after a recent artillery attack on a resort near the city of Zakho in Iraq’s northern, semi-autonomous Kurdish region that killed nine Iraqis and wounded more than 20 people. Iraq blamed Turkey for the strike, recalled its charge d’affaires from Ankara and held an emergency parliamentary session, with MPs deciding to form a committee to investigate the incident.
Following the attack, some Iraqis took to the streets in anger, while Baghdad summoned the Turkish ambassador and handed over a “strongly worded” protest note.
Ankara has denied accusations that it was behind the artillery strike and blamed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which for decades has carried out attacks against Turkey from its hideouts in Iraq’s mountainous north. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Kurdistan Regional Government, which enjoys close ties with Ankara, has been cautious in its remarks, blaming neither Turkey nor the PKK and saying the strike was the result of a “conflictual environment.”
Amid this crisis between two neighbors, Turkey’s consulate-general in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul was attacked, but there were no reported casualties. While Baghdad has demanded the withdrawal of all Turkish troops from Iraq, Ankara has said that it will keep pursuing terrorists who take refuge in the country. It is not the first time that Baghdad has objected to Turkey’s military presence on its territory. Turkish-Iraqi relations went through their most turbulent period due to the presence of Turkish troops at a military base in Bashiqa, which Ankara established in 2015.
Turkey’s military presence and its operations in Iraq against the PKK are worrying not only the Iraqi government, but also Iran, which is uneasy over Ankara’s growing influence in Iraq. So, it is not hard to guess that the renewed strain on Turkish-Iraqi relations will play into the hands of Tehran, which seeks to have a bigger say in Iraqi politics. While the PKK issue is the fundamental reason for Ankara’s close interest in its neighbor, Iran’s growing and threatening influence in both Syria and Iraq could be seen as another driving force behind Turkey’s militarized foreign policy.
The escalation in Turkish-Iraqi tensions comes as Ankara is considering a military operation against Syria — an issue that alarms Iran — and at a time when Iraq relies heavily on Turkish trade, and talks are underway on water-sharing of the Tigris and Euphrates river basin. The escalation in Turkish-Iraqi tensions comes as Ankara is considering a military operation against Syria — an issue that alarms Iran — and at a time when Iraq relies heavily on Turkish trade.
Iran, Iraq and Turkey share major transboundary river basins, which brings both huge potential risks and benefits. As climate change, population growth and economic difficulties pose critical challenges to providing water, energy and food security on a national and global scale, the water issue between these countries becomes a subject of concern. However, it also acts as a tool of diplomacy at times of crisis and could even ease the recent tension between the two countries. Turkey has highlighted the problems with water management in Iraq, and for years has promised to honor its commitment to maintain the water flow, repeatedly acknowledging its readiness to extend support to Iraq on the issue.
As previously mentioned, the timing of the attack is also noteworthy because it came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi and Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Tehran for the Astana talks. The main topic of the meeting was, indeed, Syria. However, these crucial discussions did not result in Tehran offering support for a Turkish military operation on Syrian territory, a position that was made clear by the Iranian side. In summary, Turkey has been pursuing a military campaign in Iraq and Syria to eliminate the PKK threat against its security and stability. But the situation in Iraq is quite different to that in Syria. In the former, Turkey was able to secure both central government and KRG support for its anti-PKK operations within the framework of counter-terrorism coordination, while in the latter, Ankara faces Iranian opposition to its operations. Now Baghdad has filed a complaint to the UN Security Council, which has not blamed any party for the attack, asking for the issue to be clarified through joint cooperation. Many believe that the council will not approve a resolution in favor of Iraq, especially given the key role Turkey is playing in the Ukrainian-Russian war. Despite this, the latest incident may reveal the challenges and limits to Ankara’s militarized policy in both Iraq and Syria.
• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkey’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz