English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For 13 July/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.july13.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus cures the Caaanite Woman’s Daughter/Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her daughter was healed instantly.”
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 15/21-28/:”Jesus left that place and went away to the district of Tyre and Sidon. Just then a Canaanite woman from that region came out and started shouting, ‘Have mercy on me, Lord, Son of David; my daughter is tormented by a demon.’But he did not answer her at all. And his disciples came and urged him, saying, ‘Send her away, for she keeps shouting after us.’He answered, ‘I was sent only to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.’But she came and knelt before him, saying, ‘Lord, help me.’He answered, ‘It is not fair to take the children’s food and throw it to the dogs.’She said, ‘Yes, Lord, yet even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters’ table.’Then Jesus answered her, ‘Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her daughter was healed instantly..

Titels For English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 12-13/2022
Lebanon telecoms mark-up threatens migrants’ link to jobs and safety
Corona - MoPH: 785 new Corona cases, 1 death
Berri on the 16th anniversary of the July 2006 aggression: We will fully defend our marine & land resources
MP Khalil denies news of assigning a law firm in America to lift sanctions against him
Edde: I expect a long presidential vacuum, leading to confrontation
Ulusoy: We must help Lebanon return the displaced Syrians to their country
Edde, Ulosoy convene in Edde, Jbeil
Finance Ministry heads of units declare open strike: We apologize to citizens, employees of public administrations for not...
Diab's press office issues response statement to Choukair’s recent stances, affirms that “if time goes back, PM Diab will...
Army Chief confers with US military delegation on ways of cooperation
Hamieh: Duty Free bidding at Beirut Airport takes place this week
Numbers Highlight Lebanon’s Collapse During Aoun’s Tenure

Titles For Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 12-13/2022
White House: Biden wants to deepen Israel's integration in region
Biden’s controversial trip to Saudi Arabia/Andrew Feinberg/The Independent/July 12/2022
Saudi Arabia's powerful prince unbowed by Western uproar
U.S. may resume offensive arms sales to Saudis - sources
As Iran sides with Russia in Ukraine, Biden must put his foot down/Ron Ben-Yishai|/Ynetnews/12 July/2022
Israel seeks common Mideast market, US cautious about Saudi normalisation
Lack of enthusiasm for ‘Arab NATO’ proposal pushes Jordan to about-turn on Iran
US reveals Iranian plan to deliver ‘hundreds’ of armed drones to Russia
Iran-Israel war of words heats up over regional air defence plan, Biden trip
US drone strike kills ISIS Syria chief
Russian President Vladimir Putin to Visit Iran Next Week
Ukrainian Rocket Strike Targets Russian Ammunition Depot
Turkey: New Details Revealed on Iranian Cell that Targeted Israelis
Shinzo Abe Invented the ‘Indo-Pacific’
The euro and the US dollar are at parity for the first time in 20 years

Titles For LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 12-13/2022
To Save Ukraine, Slow Down on the Autobahn/Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/July 12/2022
Europe Has an America Problem/Emma Ashfrod/Asharq Al Awsat/July 12/2022
Why Arabs Are Fed up With the Palestinians/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 12/2022
Why Biden's 'Gestures' to the Palestinians Will Not Bring Peace or Stability/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/July 12/ 2022
Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip/Michael Eisenstadt/Washington Institute/July 12/2022
Does Iran take Israel-Gulf air defense cooperation seriously? - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/July 12/2022
Iran’s Economy is Growing, But So Is Iranian Discontent/Saeed Ghasseminejad/The National Interest/July 12/2022
‘Statesman Abe’s strategic vision was impressive’/Cleo Paskal/The Sunday Guardian/July 12/2020
Actions, not words, to reset the US-Arab strategic alliance/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/July 12/ 2022
Failed Arab states/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on July 12-13/2022
Lebanon telecoms mark-up threatens migrants’ link to jobs and safety
Reuters/July 12, 2022
BEIRUT: Kenyan cleaner Noel Musanga survived Lebanon’s economic meltdown, waves of COVID-19 and Beirut’s port blast. But when her internet provider announced rates would double, she feared her last lifeline to family and work would snap. The freelance migrant worker already barely earned enough to survive. Now, the higher telecoms bill means she will have to ration her calls to relatives and potential employers. “It will be like (being) in a deep hole,” Musanga said in her ground-floor apartment in the densely populated Burj Hammoud neighborhood on the edge of Beirut. Lebanon hosts an estimated 250,000 migrant workers primarily from sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, according to the UN.
HIGHLIGHT
Lebanon’s three-year financial downturn has only added to their woes, with employers abandoning domestic migrant workers in the streets as their monthly wages — between $150 and $400 — became too expensive
Their residence is usually subject to “kafala,” a sponsorship system that rights groups say gives employers excessive control over workers’ lives. Lebanon’s three-year financial downturn has only added to their woes, with employers abandoning domestic migrant workers in the streets as their monthly wages — between $150 and $400 — became too expensive.Some went freelance, living on their own and taking on cleaning or nannying work to pay the bills. But that has become harder by the day. Lebanon’s currency has lost 95 percent of its value while food and public transportation costs have risen roughly elevenfold. The internet is the next big challenge. Until this month, Lebanon’s telecoms sector had continued to use the government’s old peg of 1,500 Lebanese pounds to the dollar to charge for phone calls, broadband and mobile internet. With slim revenues, the state struggled to import enough fuel to run telecoms transmitter stations, leading to cuts in coverage throughout 2021. To reverse that trend, Lebanon’s Cabinet said telecoms tariffs would be calculated based on the much weaker flexible currency rate set by the government’s Sayrafa platform. Using the government’s formula, that would cause up to fourfold increases in customers’ bills. Musanga, who also volunteers as a migrant rights advocate, said that mark-up will be life-changing for vulnerable workers. They would have to choose between paying for a home connection or a mobile one, which they would likely use less to conserve data packages.
It could also present a higher risk for workers seeking to escape abusive employers. “All the time, I’m on the phone receiving complaints from the girls on contract who are in trouble ... So, I have to have the internet to reach them and solve all these problems,” Musanga said. The higher cost of living all around also meant migrant workers had almost nothing left to send in remittances to their relatives back home. “Now in Lebanon if you are here, you are wasting your time, wasting your energy ... Because everything is expensive, and you’ll have nothing to save for yourself or send to your family. So it’s better to go home,” she said.

Corona - MoPH: 785 new Corona cases, 1 death
NNA/July,12/2022
In its daily report on COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced on Tuesday the registration of 785 new Coronavirus infections, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,127196.
One death case was also recorded during the past 24 hours, the report indicated.

Berri on the 16th anniversary of the July 2006 aggression: We will fully defend our marine & land resources
NNA /July,12/2022
Marking the 16th commemoration of the Israeli aggression that targeted Lebanon on the 12th of July 2006, House Speaker Nabih Berri paid tribute to the fallen martyrs, resistance fighters, and all the Lebanese “who demonstrated on this day the inability of the Israeli force, with all its arrogance and terror, to break the will of the Lebanese in resistance, steadfastness and unity in defense of Lebanon, its rights and sovereignty.”
In his issued statement on the occasion, Berri said: “July 12, 2006 was a victory point for Lebanon, and a new defeat for the Zionist aggression, aborting its new-old project aimed at keeping Lebanon a war-distortion on the sidewalk of the region's crises.”“Today, after 16 years of that persistent Zionist crime against Lebanon, in violation of its sovereignty by land, by continuing its occupation of the northern part of the village of Ghajar, and by air by violating Lebanese sovereignty with more than 22,000 air violations of Resolution #1701, and by sea through its open and hidden aggressive intentions to plunder Lebanon’s wealth of oil and gas, we call upon the international community to assume its responsibilities by putting pressure at the political and security levels on the Israeli entity, curbing its aggression and ensuring that it complies with the relevant international resolutions,” the Speaker stated. He added: “In parallel, we affirm, in the name of Lebanon, in which the army, people and resistance formula was victorious, that we will totally defend our marine and land resources.”Berri considered that the Lebanese are, once again, faced with a new test of their authentic national affiliation in confronting the dangers and challenges that beset their homeland, whereby they are called upon to “focus on their unity, dialogue and abandonment of any attempt to cause a collapse of their country from within with blows of obstruction and plunging its institutions into a vacuum.”The Speaker also stressed the need to “refrain from political and constitutional tampering and sacrificing the homeland on the altar of personal and selfish hatred,” deeming these actions a “tantamount to a crime, and even treason against Lebanon and the Lebanese.”

MP Khalil denies news of assigning a law firm in America to lift sanctions against him
NNA /July,12/2022
MP Ali Hassan Khalil categorically denied today what was published in an article by Professor Nicolas Nassif in Al-Akhbar newspaper regarding the assignment of a law firm in America to work on lifting the sanctions imposed on him, deeming such news as "fabricated and baseless."
He said, "I am not even convinced by the lawsuit before the American authorities, because the sanctions they imposed are political par excellence, as per their content, and they target my position and political role within the Movement."
"Therefore, I did not and will not pay any amount, and I am surprised that such suspicious information was reported, which meets the context of the sanctions,” Khalil underlined, reserving the right to file a lawsuit against Professor Nassif before the concerned authorities in the event of his failure to issue a correction and publish this statement.

Edde: I expect a long presidential vacuum, leading to confrontation
Ulusoy: We must help Lebanon return the displaced Syrians to their country
Edde, Ulosoy convene in Edde, Jbeil
NNA/July,12/2022
Head of the "Lebanese Peace Party", Attorney Roger Edde, and his spouse, Alice, received Tuesday at their residence in Edde, Jbeil, Turkish Ambassador to Lebanon Ali Baris Ulusoy, with talks touching on the general situation in the region and its repercussions on Lebanon, in addition to bilateral relations between the two countries. Following the meeting, Edde stressed "Turkey's role towards Lebanon's future and stability, and the importance of preserving Lebanese lands," noting that "Turkey is an economic, food and tourist factor, a country that started a long time ago with privatization of airports, electricity and transportation..."He highlighted "the importance of cooperation between Lebanon and Turkey at the economic, food and strategic levels, especially being a neighboring country to Lebanon and essential and influential in the region, and has good relations with the West through the Atlantic Alliance, in addition to its restored relations with the Arab world, and deals with crises that concern Lebanon."Responding to a question, Edde ruled out a “speedy formation of a new cabinet and the election of a new president at the constitutional deadlines," noting that "PM Najib Mikati has no interest in accepting the conditions set by President Michel Aoun," expecting "a long-term presidential vacuum, leading to confrontation."For his part, the Turkish ambassador stated that "the priority for Turkey is stability in Lebanon and the start of the required reforms, in order to rebuild the Lebanese economy." He emphasized his country's “insistence on the need for respecting constitutional deadlines in a democratic manner, especially in terms of speeding up the formation of the government and electing a new president on time, similar to what occurred with the parliamentary elections.”The Turkish diplomat also stressed “the need to work on reforming the political and economic system in Lebanon.” In response to a question, Ulusoy affirmed that "it is in Turkey's interest that the displaced Syrians in Lebanon return to their country," noting that "there is joint cooperation to pressure and work in this direction, and the priority is to help Lebanon in this regard, particularly since its problem with Syria in this issue is similar to that of Turkey, so we must work to help Lebanon return the displaced Syrians to their country."

Finance Ministry heads of units declare open strike: We apologize to citizens, employees of public administrations for not...
NNA/July,12/2022
Heads of units at the Public Finance Directorate announced today their open strike until their salaries are adjusted according to the exchange rate of LBP 8,000 per USD. This came following their meeting this afternoon, which was devoted to agreeing on suitable “escalatory steps after successive and continuous meetings and discussions and strikes carried out by the employees of the Public Finance Directorate, demanding a minimum standard of living in light of the inability to secure the needs of their families due to the significant deterioration in their income.”Participants regretted that, despite the gracious attempt by the Finance Minister to support, “no solution has been reached that secures the employees' minimum rights.”They pointed out that this decision is the result of a long suffering endured by employees on a daily basis which threatens the livelihood of their families, and is in no way directed against the privileges of their colleagues in other departments and institutions. Consequently, they underlined their demand for "an immediate adjustment of salaries of employees at the Ministry of Finance, by adopting the exchange rate of the platform and securing fuel for employees to reach their work premises.”

Diab's press office issues response statement to Choukair’s recent stances, affirms that “if time goes back, PM Diab will...
NNA/July,12/2022
The media office of former Prime Minister Hassan Diab issued a statement this afternoon, in which it commented on a recent statement by former Minister Mohamed Choucair, where he considered that the government of Prime Minister Saad Hariri ceased because PM Hariri “refused to refrain from paying the Eurobonds,” while the government of PM Hassan Diab came into rule “with a prior decision and agreement to announce the failure to pay these bonds,” adding that “the Central Bank had $34 billion in assets while only $500 million was needed to pay the bonds!"
The statement criticized former Minister Choucair’s words in this regards, and his lack of awareness of the financial and economic reality, his lightness in approaching such a matter of significant importance and his underestimation of the magnitude of the economic crisis in the country.
As for the issue of subsidy-lifting, the statement indicated that “subsidy” is a policy adopted in Lebanon for a long time, taking different forms from subsidizing medicine, to flour, to supporting “some” bank and “some” politicians and businessmen, to supporting the dollar, etc...
The statement stressed herein that former PM Hassan Diab “refused to lift the subsidies without an alternative presented to the Lebanese citizen, such as the financing card,” adding that “if time goes back, PM Diab will again refuse to lift subsidies on gasoline, diesel, flour and medicine...because what occurred in the event of lifting the subsidies later on was a disaster for which the Lebanese paid a heavy price and queues continued in front of gas stations and bakeries at huge costs.”The statement expressed certainty that former PM Saad Hariri “had no knowledge” of former Minister Choucair’s words, adding that “it remains up to him [Hariri] to take the appropriate stance in this regards, for he knows sufficiently Mr. Choucair's capabilities in assessing the financial situation of Lebanon.”
Finally, the statement by former PM Diab’s media office considered that “Minister Choucair ought to have completed a critical review of the past stage, and to have approached matters far from superficial, narrow and revengeful considerations.”

Army Chief confers with US military delegation on ways of cooperation
NNA/July,12/2022
Armed Forces Commander, General Joseph Aoun, received today in his Yarzeh Office the Commander of the United States Naval Forces in the Central Command, General Charles Cooper, in the presence of US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, accompanied by a delegation.
Discussions touched on bilateral cooperation between the armies of both countries, especially regarding the development of the capabilities of the Lebanese army naval forces.

Hamieh: Duty Free bidding at Beirut Airport takes place this week
NNA/July,12/2022
Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport, Ali Hamieh, confirmed that "the duty free bidding at Beirut Airport through the Tenders Department will be this week," noting that "the opening of bids will be on Thursday, July 14, 2022."He pointed out that "the opening price is 850 billion LBP for each passenger," adding that "viewing and obtaining the book of conditions is done through the office of the General Directorate of Civil Aviation."He concluded that any inquiries have to be addressed in writing according to the norms.

Numbers Highlight Lebanon’s Collapse During Aoun’s Tenure
Beirut - Paula Astih/Asharq Al Awsat/July,12/2022
Less than two months before the constitutional date that allows for the election of a new president for Lebanon, the severe economic and financial crisis that the country has been witnessing since the fall of 2019 continues to worsen.
The devaluation of the Lebanese currency, which has lost more than 90 percent of its value, is reflected in all aspects of life and is leading to soaring prices and increasing poverty among the Lebanese, the vast majority of whom are still receiving their salaries in Lebanese pounds.
When Aoun was elected president in 2016, one US dollar was equivalent to 1,500 LBP. Today, the rate is ranging between LBP 28,000-30,000 for one dollar. Experts are unanimously in agreement that a set of economic and political factors have caused the collapse, including the corrupt system of power that is based on sectarian quotas, in addition to incorrect financial policies that enjoyed political cover.
Former member of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Lawyer Antoine Nasrallah, believes that the president “bears part of the responsibility for the collapse by not having any plan to manage and overcome the crisis.”
According to Nasrallah, Aoun did not have a vision to deal with the new reality after the decision to default on the Eurobonds. He also covered the random government subsidy policy that led to the depletion of the reserves of the Central Bank. The president has also failed to adopt a clear foreign policy even though the foreign ministers under his tenure were all affiliated with his political camp, according to the former FPM official.
He pointed that a recent decree, which was issued to earmark financial aid to charitable organizations, was also based on evident political quotas.
Furthermore, Aoun and his political team have failed to accomplish significant reforms, “despite having the largest parliamentary and ministerial blocs,” added Nasrallah. They have “obstructed the formation of the government more than once, not because of a dispute over a political project, but because of a struggle over shares,” he underlined.
Although the crisis erupted in 2019 after the October 17 popular uprising, experts confirm that its features had started to appear much earlier.
“All economic and financial analysts were aware that Lebanon was on the verge of a major economic crisis,” says Dr. Layal Mansour, a researcher in economic and financial affairs and a university professor.
She told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Several indicators confirmed that Lebanon was heading towards collapse, mainly due to the high interest on bank deposits in Lebanese pounds… The dollar’s reserve relative to foreign deposits was also suggesting that the situation is abnormal.”
Mansour noted that the financial engineering that took place in 2016 was the first indicator of the crisis. “Those concerned with the financial situation were giving artificial doses of oxygen to the country at a very high cost,” she emphasized.
The actual collapse has not yet begun, warned Mansour.
“It will start with the announcement of the fate of bank deposits... The crisis is severe and strong, and the exchange rate crisis is unlike any other; it cannot be treated separately.”She added: “Unfortunately, we are expecting the worst… Lebanon will remain for years dependent on foreign funds and loans, and the middle class will subsequently disappear.”
Lebanon is witnessing an unprecedented economic collapse that the World Bank has ranked among the worst in the world since the mid-19th century, accompanied by the disintegration of the main pillars of the prevailing political-economic model in the country since the end of the civil war (1975-90). It’s mainly reflected in the collapse of basic public services.
About 80 percent of the Lebanese people fell below the poverty line with the intensification of the crisis.
The unemployment rate has risen nearly three times as a result of the economic collapse, according to a recent survey by the Lebanese government and United Nations. The Central Administration of Statistics in Lebanon and the International Labor Organization noted in a press release that the unemployment rate in Lebanon increased from 11.4 percent in the period between 2018 and 2019 to 29.6 percent in January 2022. All of the above has led to a rise in the number of emigrants. According to Beirut-based Information International, the number of those who left the country in 2021 reached 79,134 people, compared to 17,721 in 2020, which is an increase of 346 percent. In addition, the scarcity of fuel leads to continuous power outages. The electrical supply is often limited to one hour per day, affecting all other services, such as water and communications. “There is no way out of the current crisis except through the implementation of the recovery plan and the restructuring of public administrations, starting with Electricité du Liban [state-owned power company],” Financial and Economic Expert Walid Abu Sleiman told Asharq Al-Awsat. “Without any radical reform measures, the situation will worsen as the poverty rate topped 85 percent. This may lead to a social explosion,” he warned.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on July 12-13/2022
White House: Biden wants to deepen Israel's integration in region
Reuters/July 12/2022
U.S. President Joe Biden wants to use his Middle East trip this week to deepen Israel's integration in the region and will work to make progress on more normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the White House said on Monday. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said any normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is likely to take a long time, but that Biden will be looking to make progress during his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Biden’s controversial trip to Saudi Arabia
Andrew Feinberg/The Independent/July 12/2022
Is anyone in Washington happy about President Joe Biden’s upcoming trip to Saudi Arabia?
In the weeks since it became known that Mr Biden would travel to Jeddah to attend a meeting of the Gulf Corporation Council and meet with Saudi leaders, the White House has been on the defensive.
In a Sunday op-ed in The Washington Post, the president said his aim has been “to reorient — but not rupture” the relationship between Washington and Riyadh after a period of heightened tensions marked by anger among Democrats regarding the kingdom’s war in Yemen (and the Trump administration’s insistence on selling the Saudis weapons to prosecute it) as well as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s role in the murder of Post columnist Jamal Kashoggi.
Under Mr Biden’s predecessor, the Saudis — and MBS in particular — largely had carte blanche to do as they wished. Trump administration officials suppressed a US intelligence community report crediting MBS with ordering Khashoggi, a prominent critic, to be strangled and dismembered by Saudi security forces in the kingdom’s Turkish consulate.
As a candidate for president, Mr Biden had vowed to reverse the kid-glove treatment Riyadh had received under Mr Trump. At one 2019 Democratic primary debate, he said he would depart from past administrations’ policies by making it “very clear” that US weapons sales to the Saudis would cease.
“We were going to in fact make them pay the price and make them in fact the pariah that they are,” he said.
Mr Biden appeared to make a yeoman’s effort to keep his promise in the early days of his presidency. While Mr Trump and his aides — most notably his son-in-law turned adviser Jared Kushner — exhibited no qualms about dealing with MBS as if he, not his father Salman, were the Kingdom’s actual head of state, Mr Biden made a point of dealing only with the king, when he dealt with him at all.
It took more than a month after he’d been sworn in to office before he even spoke with the Saudi leader, and when the two leaders did speak, a White House readout of the conversation was particularly anodyne. It noted that they addressed “the longstanding partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia”, discussed “regional security, including the renewed diplomatic efforts led by the United Nations and the United States to end the war in Yemen, and the U.S. commitment to help Saudi Arabia defend its territory as it faces attacks from Iranian-aligned groups”.
The White House also noted that Mr Biden “affirmed the importance the United States places on universal human rights and the rule of law” and told the Saudi leader he would “work to make the bilateral relationship as strong and transparent as possible”.
But despite pressure from Democrats in Congress and various civil society experts, human rights got dropped from the agenda when the two leaders spoke again in February.
Following that 9 February call, the White House said Mr Biden “underscored the U.S. commitment to support Saudi Arabia in the defence of its people and territory” from attacks by Iranian-backed militants. The White House also said Mr Biden and the Saudi king “discussed matters pertaining to the Middle East region and Europe and agreed that their teams would remain closely coordinated over the coming weeks and months” and “further reiterated the United States’ and Saudi Arabia’s commitment to ensuring the stability of global energy supplies”.
It's that last matter — “the stability of global energy supplies” — that appears to be a major driver behind Mr Biden’s about-face on the would-be pariah kingdom. On Monday, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the Biden administration believes “there is a capacity” for Saudi Arabia and the other Opec nations to boost oil production enough to lower the high fuel prices that have been a major driver of inflation world-wide.
Mr Sullivan took pains to stress that the president’s trip to the region is about more than oil. He noted that the Middle East “remains full of challenges and threats,” including from “terrorist groups that still operate in a number of countries,” as well as challenges “to human rights and human freedom”.
Although most Republicans have in recent days been claiming that Mr Biden’s visit to Jeddah amounts to bending the knee to Salman for a few drops of oil — and characterising the need for the trip as a result of what they describe as policy decisions meant to harm the US fossil fuel industry — Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Steven Cook said the need to visit the kingdom stems from the region returning to what passes for normal.
“It really is gravity,” he said, calling Mr Biden’s previous insistence that human rights concerns would dictate the relationship between Washington and Riyadh “unsustainable”.“This really hasn't been a thing. But they've maintained the rhetoric about it. And so now, the President is really eating crow,” he said.
Mr Cook said the president could have possibly avoided the need for the trip with a simple phone call to MBS — the kingdom’s de facto ruler — in March, and suggested his visit to Israel is also ill-timed considering the “poisonous atmosphere” stemming from the recent killing of Al Jazeera reporter Shireen Abu Akleh by Israeli Defense Forces soldiers.
Timothy Kaldas, a policy fellow at the Tahir Institute for Middle East Policy, also poured cold water on the GOP claim that Mr Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia amounts to begging for help to lower gas prices.
“I think that the reality is that there's a limit to the extent to which increased production is going to address the price problem that the US and the globe is dealing with. There are other bottlenecks contributing to that. And, frankly, they've been trying to downplay the oil issue for a while now, because I think they realize that there's a good chance this trip isn't going to deliver a significant amount of relief in terms of oil prices,” he said.
Mr Kaldas told The Independent he believes there are “a lot of people” in the Biden administration “who see the relationship with Saudi Arabia as important and would like to improve it” but cautioned that the push to improve the relationship could cost Mr Biden credibility on the matter of American leadership.
“What I think is most disappointing in this trip is that they're giving up all these pledges for centering values in exchange for nothing really substantive or clear,” said Mr Kaldas, who said the meetings with Saudi leadership could have been hosted by “a more neutral party” such as Oman or Jordan.
“The decision to do it in Saudi Arabia is really kind of a humiliating climbdown for the president after his pledge to hold MBS accountable and his failure to do so. And I don't really see anyone reading it any other way,” he said. “I think the whole world will look at it that way.”
Mr Kaldas said a bright spot in Mr Biden’s Middle East swing could be any announcement of normalisation between Riyadh and Jerusalem, but said such a step is unlikely to happen so long as Salman remains alive.
While Mr Biden’s trip attracted criticism from most corners, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs Joel Rubin, who managed the State Department’s relations with Congress during the last two years of the Obama administration, posited there is a method to what so many are describing as madness in sending Mr Biden to Saudi Arabia.
“It's not a good thing, but it's not a horrible thing, either,” he said. “We've got a global crisis on energy, the Iran nuclear program is a major crisis, Israeli political turmoil is a major crisis,, the Palestinians are looking to get out from under this nightmare they live in, and the Gulf Cooperation Council meetings happen to be in Saudi [Arabia] because that's where they are,” he said.
Mr Rubin said Mr Biden’s latest travel plans appear to fit into what has been a larger strategy of holding a “forever tour to diplomacy” with his foreign travel.
“He did Asia, then he came back and did Summit of the Americas, then went back out to the G7 and Nato,” he said. “This is re-establishing American diplomatic power, so I think it’s crucial to get to the Middle East even there will not be a lot of shiny objects.”
The former Obama administration official suggested that the press is “obsessed” with comparing Mr Biden’s upcoming trip to his predecessor’s inaugural trip abroad to Riyadh in 2017.
“There’s not going to be an orb this time, but that doesn’t mean it’s a waste of time, either,” he said.

Saudi Arabia's powerful prince unbowed by Western uproar
Reuters/12 July/2022
Saudi Arabia's powerful crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has emerged unbowed from the international outrage over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi four years ago, as Western leaders who once tried to isolate him now seek his support.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who has accused the prince of ordering Khashoggi's murder and said Saudi Arabia should be made a pariah, will visit the oil-producing kingdom on Friday hoping for a respite from soaring global petroleum prices.
He follows in the footsteps of European leaders who condemned the 2018 killing of Khashoggi by a Saudi hit squad in Istanbul but accept they cannot ignore the global energy giant and its de facto ruler.
Only 36 years old and nominally still waiting to inherit power from his elderly father King Salman, the prince has already stamped his mark on the kingdom and the Middle East. He has crushed dissent and sidelined rivals in an unrelenting push for control at home while pursuing a more forceful foreign policy in the region, taking steps which have delighted admirers, unsettled Riyadh's traditional allies and shocked human rights advocates.
The killing of Khashoggi, an insider-turned-critic, was a particularly heavy blow to the prestige of the prince, known by his initials MbS. He has denied ordering the operation although he accepted ultimate responsibility "as a leader".
The murder deterred some investors and dramatically undercut MbS's promotion of himself as a reformer pursuing new freedoms in the conservative kingdom and home of Islam's holiest sites.
But faced with the reality of an assertive leader who could be running the Middle East's largest economy for several decades to come, his critics abroad appear to have backed down.
"The whole attempt by the West post-Khashoggi to try to limit interaction with MbS was incrementally eroded, and Biden's visit will really put a bullet into that idea," said Ayham Kamel of consultancy Eurasia Group.
"He is there to revive the Saudi-U.S. relationship which in the current geopolitical environment - because of the Ukraine war, because of China competition, because of energy issues and Saudi Arabia's regional influence - needs to be fixed."Under the Crown Prince's watch far-reaching reforms, including the listing of state oil giant Saudi Aramco, have been accompanied by a crackdown on dissent and activism, detention of women's rights activists and a secretive purge of top royals and businessmen on corruption charges.
At the same time, he pledged a tougher stance against the regional influence of sworn foe Iran and took the kingdom into a costly and unpopular war in Yemen.
He won vocal support from former U.S. President Donald Trump, but after Biden pledged to take a harder line on Saudi Arabia the prince made overtures seen by diplomats as showing he was a valuable partner for regional stability.
The moves included a deal to end a bitter row with Qatar that saw Riyadh and its allies boycott Doha, launching direct talks with Iran to contain tensions, and a truce in Yemen.
But U.S. ties remain strained by Washington's restrictions on arms sales to the kingdom and indirect U.S.-Iran talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, without Gulf participation. Biden has also refused to deal directly with MbS as de facto ruler.
"Simply, I do not care,” the crown prince said in a March 2022 interview with The Atlantic, when asked whether Biden misunderstood things about him.
RESENTMENT WITHIN FAMILY
MbS rose from near obscurity after his father ascended the throne in 2015. He marginalized senior members of the royal family after ousting an older cousin as crown prince in a 2017 palace coup, and consolidated control over Saudi security and intelligence agencies, stirring resentment within the family.
Later that year, he arrested several royals and other prominent Saudis, holding them for months at Riyadh's Ritz-Carlton hotel in an anti-corruption campaign that caused shockwaves at home and abroad. On the economy, MbS announced sweeping changes aimed at developing new industries to create jobs for Saudis and introducing fiscal reforms. High profile social reforms included allowing cinemas and public entertainment and ending a ban on women driving. While he is popular among young Saudis and has supporters among many royals, some ruling family members resent Mohammed's grip on power and questioned his leadership after unprecedented attacks on Saudi oil plants in 2019, according to sources with ties to the royals and business elite. In March 2020, authorities detained his cousin, former crown prince Mohammed bin Nayef and the king's brother Prince Ahmed in a move sources with royal connections said aimed at ensuring a smooth succession. MbS has admirers in the region, with one Gulf source saying his "bulldozer" approach was needed to change Saudi Arabia. The cornerstone of the economic transformation was selling shares in Aramco. A listing on the domestic bourse went ahead in 2019 after several false starts, briefly hitting a $2 trillion valuation, but there was not enough investor appetite for a foreign offering. The prince has also reshaped Saudi foreign policy. The kingdom's assertiveness under MbS followed what some hawkish Saudi officials regarded as a decade of growing Iranian influence across the region and concerns that Washington under former President Barack Obama turned a blind eye to what they saw as pernicious expansion of Iranian activity in Arab nations. However, while Riyadh and Tehran cut diplomatic ties in 2016, they launched direct talks in 2021 aimed at reducing tensions at a time Gulf states voice doubt about the U.S. commitment to the region.
(Editing by William Maclean)

U.S. may resume offensive arms sales to Saudis - sources
Reuters/12 July/2022
STORY: The White House is weighing lifting a ban on U.S. sales of offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia ahead of a visit to the region by President Joe Biden.
According to sources, Senior Saudi officials have pressed their U.S. counterparts to scrap a policy of selling only defensive arms to its top Gulf partner in recent months. Washington and Riyadh have long been close military allies in confronting Iran. But the scenes of devastation in Yemen, where Saudi Arabia has pressed a campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis, often inflicting heavy civilian casualties, prompted a human-rights outcry that strained the alliance.
"At the height of this war in Yemen, the Saudi-led campaign was considered to be quite brutal and very much behind some of the worst civilian casualties that were caused. This led U.S. critics, especially in the U.S. Congress and human rights groups, to call for an end to the sale of U.S. offensive weapons to the Saudis. That would include precision-guided bombs, and other items that could be used on mass attacks. What's happened now, is that the Saudis have been praised for helping to bring about a truce in Yemen since March. They actually extended it in June for two months until early August. What the U.S. would like now is for that to become a permanent cease-fire."Sources told Reuters the internal U.S. deliberations are informal and at an early stage, with no decision imminent. But as Biden prepares for a diplomatically sensitive trip, he has signaled that he is looking to reset strained relations with Saudi Arabia at a time when he wants increased Gulf oil supplies along with closer Arab security ties with Israel to counter Iran. Among the most delicate matters facing Biden is how to greet Saudi Arabia's crown prince: Mohammed bin Salman, or MbS. Once praised as a reformer in the deeply-conservative kingdom, MbS has seen been accused of a widespread crackdown on domestic political opponents. U.S. intelligence believes MbS ordered the kidnapping and murder of a U.S.-based Washington Post journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, who disappeared after entering a Saudi consulate in Istanbul. But it's unclear whether Biden can visit Saudi Arabia without meeting MbS. "This is the most awkward part of his trip, without a doubt. He has been so critical of MbS, who is the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, over the Khashoggi killing. He has insisted as a presidential candidate in 2020, that Saudi Arabia should be treated as a pariah. He's now backing away from that to some extent. He will be having a bilateral meeting with King Salman, with MbS as part of the king's leadership team. There is the question of whether there will be some sort of handshake or greeting, and there's no knowledge yet of exactly how that will transpire or take place."
Biden departs later this week for Israel and the Palestinian West Bank, and then flies to Saudi Arabia.

As Iran sides with Russia in Ukraine, Biden must put his foot down
Ron Ben-Yishai|/Ynetnews/12 July/2022
Analysis: Moscow accepting Tehran's offer to use its drone in Eastern Europe conflict puts the latter diametrically opposed to NATO countries that have so far considered it an ally, and this could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. and Israel. The Iranian UAVs bound to be shipped to Russia are, according to U.S. assessments, almost a declaration of war on NATO, and Iran could end up regretting it. I doubt U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan would have talked about the assessment that Tehran was preparing to supply drones, including combat drones, for the conflict in Ukraine had he not been sure the information he provided to journalists was reliable. Just four years ago, when former U.S. president Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, the Iranians sought help from the Europeans. Now, they have turned against them completely.
Even if the UAV deal between Iran and Russia doesn't go through, this marks a dramatic shift in Iran's stance as it turns into a direct threat to NATO countries and the EU. Moreover, the announcement of the military drone package and the scheduled three-headed meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian and Turkish counterparts marks the first time Iran is taking Russia's side in the battle between the superpowers. Ergo, Tehran has taken an active part in the global confrontation in favor of the Russia-China bloc. From here on out, Iran is no longer just a potential threat to peace and stability in the Middle East owing to its nuclear program and proxies throughout the region, but also an important supporting actor in the confrontation against the liberal world order led by the United States in Europe and elsewhere.
This isn't the first time Iran has sided with the anti-Western bloc. Iran has already signed a long-term, multi-billion agreement that grants China a foothold in the Middle East, but this is the first time that Iran gets off the fence and actively helps Russia in the bloody conflict against Ukraine and NATO allies (including Turkey and Canada).
This confirms what Israel has been claiming for years: Iran is not only aspiring for regional hegemony but also to become a significant actor on the world stage. This is why it develops long-range missiles and drones that can reach Israel, Europe and maybe even North America. In supplying Russia with drones, Iran declares on which side it belongs and begins to pursue its goals on the international stage. This move entails many consequences. It may harden the United States' stance on the prospect of Iran developing and producing nuclear weapons, since from now on this weapon is not only a threat to its Middle Eastern neighbors but to Europe and the U.S. too.  Biden would have to reconsider whether to sign a new nuclear deal or take Israel's advice and turn the screw on Iran, including presenting a credible military option if the Islamic Republic continues nuclear arms or conventional weapon systems that threaten the West.
The use of Iranian drones by the Russians in Ukraine would allow the Iranians to gain experience and perfect their already robust drone apparatus that can function effectively for thousands of miles. It is safe to assume that Iranian advisers would stay on Russian soil, but will be stationed close to the front line with Ukraine to help their Russian trainees operate the systems they will provide them. This will oblige the United States, and possibly Israel as well, to develop methods and means to help the Ukrainian army neutralize the Iranian drones. Israel may also have to abandon its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict because any improvements to Iran's drones would directly endanger us.Additionally, Israel would have to reassess whether Russia's willingness to use Iranian drones for reconnaissance missions and attacking Ukrainian targets poses a direct threat to us and the U.S.
The Russians accepting Iranian aid may also affect their approach toward Israeli activities in Syria against Iranian entrenchment. This may be even a Russian declaration they are taking Iran's side, which could restrict Israel's freedom of action in Syrian and Lebanese airspace.
Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Defense Minister Benny Gants now have a very good reason to ask Biden for offensive weapon systems that could help Israel and its allies in the Middle East protect themselves against a nuclear Iran as well as against drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles the Islamic Republic is churning out at breakneck speed.

Israel seeks common Mideast market, US cautious about Saudi normalisation
The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022
Lieberman said: "It is time to create a new, common market in the Middle East: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries and Jordan. That's the big challenge."
Middle East analysts are intrigued by Israeli leaders already speculating about the economic dividends they think they could reap as a result of an hypothetical normalisation with Saudi Arabia that could result from US President Joe Biden’s Friday trip to Jeddah. Israeli Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Monday he hoped the visit by the US president this week to the region will lead to the Jewish state being part of a common Middle East market that also includes Saudi Arabia. Biden arrives in Israel on Wednesday and continues to Saudi Arabia on Friday. The White House has said the visit's aims include expanding regional economic and security cooperation. Asked at an economic conference hosted by the Calcalist newspaper what he expects to arise from Biden's visit, Lieberman said: "It is time to create a new, common market in the Middle East: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Gulf countries and Jordan. That's the big challenge." He continued: "It will change the reality here from end to end, in both the fields of security and of economics. Therefore, I hope the emphasis during Biden's visit will be on creating this new market in the Middle East." Although supportive of the Israeli ambition to integrate a common Middle East market, the US has adopted a cautious tone regarding Saudi normalisation prospects. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that President Joe Biden wants to use his Middle East trip this week to deepen Israel’s integration in the region and will work to make progress on more normal relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, he said any normalisation between Israel and Saudi Arabia is likely to take a long time but Biden will be looking to make progress during his trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel normalised relations with four Arab countries under a 2020 US diplomatic drive that received Riyadh's blessing. However, Saudi Arabia has stopped short of itself formally recognising Israel in the absence of a resolution to Palestinian national aspirations. In separate remarks to the conference, Israeli National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata said that within the framework of Biden's visit "it is certainly possible to begin talking about the potential expansion of our markets in the region. "It's no coincidence that Biden is coming here on Wednesday and continuing on Friday from here to Saudi Arabia by direct flight," Haluta added. "The ability to attend to these things carefully, step by step, can bring about breakthroughs." Lieberman said his regional vision would include "a kind of trans-Middle East highway" and rail network linking up partner countries such as Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Deputy Foreign Minister Idan Roll said cultivating potential ties with the Saudis was a slow and gradual process. "We are witnessing that we have a lot in common and that there are many benefits," Roll told reporters. "We have been working ... towards expanding the circle of peace and normalisation and I think that the past year and a half have demonstrated in a very convincing way that there are new opportunities and that moderate forces have new opportunities to work together", he said. Asked whether Biden would be announcing direct flights from Israel to Saudi Arabia, Roll said: "As far as flights, you know, President Biden will visit Saudi after he visits here and we sure hope he will bring some news regarding normalisation with the Saudis. But ... I anticipate it will happen in steps. We will have to wait, all of us, until President Biden’s visit to Saudi."

Lack of enthusiasm for ‘Arab NATO’ proposal pushes Jordan to about-turn on Iran
The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022
Jordanian Prime Minister Bishr al-Khasawneh said on Sunday that his country seeks good relations with Iran. A few weeks ago, the Jordanian king had accused Iran, in an interview with CNBC, of “destabilising its northern borders”. In a stark contrast with King Abdullah’s call for the creation of an Arab NATO to thwart the Iranian threat, Jordanian Prime Minister Bishr al-Khasawneh said on Sunday that his country seeks good relations with Iran and has not, for one day, dealt with it as a source of threat to the kingdom’s national security. Experts said Amman does not hesitate to change course on regional issues when it sees its interests at stake or when it feels it is being sidelined, as was the case after the signing of the Abraham Accords or the more recent Negev summit last March, even if this means sending conflicting signals about where it actually stands. Analysts point out that the Jordanian monarch's call for an Arab NATO, presented as a defence umbrella against Iran with US and Israeli cooperation, has not met with much enthusiasm in the region or beyond. The lukewarm reception given to the idea in Israel as well as in the Arab Gulf states may have disappointed the Jordanians and pushed them to look for other cards to play.
From trying to mobilise the region against Tehran, Amman has thus shifted to wooing the Iranians hoping that its about-turn would help it gain a foothold in the neighbouring Iraqi market in a way that helps alleviate Jordan’s economic pressures. Jordanians complain about the marginalisation of their regional role in recent years and the coldness in Jordanian-Gulf relations, especially with Saudi Arabia. Their hoped-for thaw in relations as a result of the recent visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Amman, did not materialise. Amman was counting on the crown prince’s visit to obtain the strong support it needs to grapple with economic difficulties made worse by the fallout from the war in Ukraine.The final statement of the visit by the Saudi crown prince dealt mostly with regional issues such as Syria, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinians and did not mention any tangible agreements on the bilateral level, keeping the wording vague about “joint action to increase the level of economic and investment cooperation”. Some experts say it is not unlikely Khasawneh's Iran-friendly statements were meant to draw the attention of Saudi Arabia, which has not comment on Jordan’s NATO initiative. Khasawneh said in an interview with BBC Arabic, broadcast on its YouTube site, that "Jordan is seeking to reach a formula for dialogue with Iran based on good-neighbourly relations." A few weeks ago, the Jordanian king had accused Iran, in an interview with CNBC, of “destabilising its northern borders,” while Jordanian army officials linked the smuggling networks operating across Jordan’s borders to Iranian and Hezbollah militias. He said during the same interview that he would support a military alliance in the Middle East similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and that "the vision of this military alliance that can be established in cooperation with like-minded countries must be very clear and its role must be well defined." The Jordanian monarch’s initiative regarding the creation of an Arab NATO may have been an attempt by the Jordanians to keep their country in position to play an active role in regional developments and not be treated like a marginal player. Unenthusiastic reactions and the impractical aspects over the implementation of the proposal make the Jordanian initiative basically a non-starter, especially since it did not seem to have been vetted in advance with regional stakeholders. Observers believe that the Jordanian king, whose statements came after a visit to Washington during which he met US President Joe Biden, was seeking to appear as one of the key actors in the Middle East within the framework of the new American drive aimed at strengthening relations between Israel and its Arab neighbours. There was also speculation that Amman may have been interested in serving as the headquarters of the hypothetical new regional NATO.

US reveals Iranian plan to deliver ‘hundreds’ of armed drones to Russia
The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022
Sullivan’s revelation comes on the eve of President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The White House on Monday said it believes Russia is turning to Iran to provide it with “hundreds” of unmanned aerial vehicles, including weapons-capable drones, for use in its ongoing war in Ukraine. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said it was unclear if Iran had already provided any of the unmanned systems to Russia, but said the US has “information” that indicates Iran is preparing to train Russian forces to use them as early as this month. “Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred UAVs, including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” he told reporters Monday. Sullivan said it was proof the Russia’s overwhelming bombardments in Ukraine, which have led it to consolidate gains in the country’s east in recent weeks, was “coming at a cost to the sustainment of its own weapons.”Sullivan’s revelation comes on the eve of President Joe Biden’s trip to Israel and Saudi Arabia, where Iran’s nuclear programme and malign activities in the region will be a key subject of discussion. The US decision to publicly reveal that the two countries’ chief regional rival was helping to rearm Russia comes as both Israel and Saudi Arabia have resisted joining global efforts to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine due to their domestic interests. Sullivan also noted that Iran has provided similar unmanned aerial vehicles to Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia before a ceasefire was reached earlier this year. Military analyst Samuel Bendett of the CNA think tank said Russia’s choice of Iran as a source for drones is logical because “for the last 20 years or more Iran has been refining its drone combat force. Their drones have been in more combat than the Russians’.”They are pioneers of so-called loitering munitions, the “kamikaze” drones like the Switchblade that the US has provided Ukraine. Iran has “a proven track record of flying drones for hundreds of miles and hitting their targets,” Bendett added, including penetrating American-supplied air defences and striking Saudi oil refineries. He said the Iranian drones could be very effective at hitting Ukrainian power stations, refineries and other critical infrastructure. Bendett noted that before the Ukraine war, Russia had licensed drone technology for its Forpost UAV from a proven supplier: Israel. The Jewish state has remained neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, so that source is no longer available to Moscow.

Iran-Israel war of words heats up over regional air defence plan, Biden trip
The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022
"The international response needs to be decisive: to return to the UN Security Council and activate the sanctions mechanism at full force," said Israel’s Yair Lapid.
Iran has described as a "threat" the United States' plans for enhancing air defence cooperation with its Middle East allies, due to be discussed during President Joe Biden's upcoming regional trip. The White House's National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Thursday said "greater collaboration" on issues such as air defence, particularly with regards to countering Tehran, would be on Biden's agenda as he visits Israel and Saudi Arabia next week. "The proposal of this issue is provocative and the Islamic republic of Iran views these remarks as a threat to national and regional security," foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said late Saturday. "Trying to create new security concerns in the region will have no result other than weakening common regional security and serving the security interests of the Zionist regime," he continued, in reference to Israel. Biden is set to hold meetings this week with the leaders of Iran's arch-foe Israel and its regional rival Saudi Arabia, as well as those of other countries including Egypt, Iraq and Jordan.
The US and its Gulf Arab allies accuse Iran of destabilising the region with its ballistic missile programme and support for armed militias. "We're continuing to work on integrated air defence capabilities and frameworks across the region," Kirby said on Thursday. "The whole region is concerned about Iran and their burgeoning and growing ballistic missile capabilities," he added. Washington raises such issues "with the sole purpose of Iranophobia and creating discord between the countries of the region", Kanani said. "Any groundwork for increasing the presence and role of the US in regional security mechanisms will only lead to insecurity, instability and the spread of terrorism," he added. His remarks came amid heightened tensions between Iran and Western powers as talks in Vienna to revive a 2015 nuclear deal have been stalled since March. Expanding joint action to counter Iran will top the agenda during US President Joe Biden's upcoming visit to Israel, Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Sunday, demanding sanctions against Tehran.
The visit "will focus first and foremost on the issue of Iran," said Lapid, addressing his second cabinet meeting since taking office on July 1. According to an International Atomic Energy Agency report that emerged over the weekend, Iran has informed the Vienna-based watchdog about enhancements in its uranium enrichment capacity. "Yesterday, it was revealed that Iran is enriching uranium in advanced centrifuges in complete contravention of the agreements it has signed," Lapid said Sunday. "The international response needs to be decisive: to return to the UN Security Council and activate the sanctions mechanism at full force," he added. Beyond Iran's nuclear programme, Israel has sounded growing alarm about Tehran's support for the Lebanese group Hezbollah, which this month sent drones towards an Israeli oil rig that Beirut claims is in disputed Mediterranean waters.The Jewish state has also accused Iranian agents of plotting to kidnap or kill Israelis in the Turkish city of Istanbul. "Israel will not stand idly by while Iran tries to attack us," Lapid said. "We will discuss with the president and his team expanding security cooperation against all threats." Lapid also expressed hope Sunday that his country would establish formal diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. “Israel extends its hand to all the countries of the region and calls on them to build ties with us, establish relations with us and change history for our children,” Prime Minister Yair Lapid said during a weekly cabinet meeting. He said Biden will carry “a message of peace and hope from us” when he embarks for Saudi Arabia. Israel's ties with Arab states have grown since normalising relations with four Arab states in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords. Defence cooperation has tightened since the Pentagon switched coordination with Israel from US European Command to Central Command, or CENTCOM, last year. The move lumped Israel’s military with those of former enemy states, including Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations that have yet to recognise Israel. Biden is set to arrive in Israel Wednesday for three-day trip that will also include meetings with Palestinian officials in the occupied West Bank. From there, he will fly directly to Saudi Arabia.

US drone strike kills ISIS Syria chief
Reuters, Washington/12 July ,2022
The leader of ISIS in Syria, who is one of the top five leaders of the terrorist group, has been killed in a US air strike, the US military said on Tuesday. In a statement, US Central Command said Maher al-Agal had been killed in the drone strike in northwest Syria and a close associate of his was seriously injured. “Extensive planning went into this operation to ensure its successful execution. An initial review indicates there were no civilian casualties,” the statement added. It said al-Agal was responsible for developing ISIS networks outside of Iraq and Syria. The killing would be another blow to the group’s efforts to reorganize after losing large swaths of territory.
In February, the top leader of ISIS blew himself up during a US military raid in Syria.

Russian President Vladimir Putin to Visit Iran Next Week
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 12 July, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to discuss Syria during a visit to Tehran next Tuesday, the Kremlin said. It will be only Putin's second foreign trip since the start of Moscow's armed intervention in Ukraine on Feb. 24, following a trip to Central Asia at the end of June. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said three leaders - from the three guarantor states of the Astana process, designed to find a peace settlement in Syria - would hold a trilateral meeting.
Russia and Iran are the key military and political backers of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Turkey has provided military assistance to the Free Syrian Army and other opposition groups still fighting against Assad's forces in northwest Syria. The Kremlin had said on Monday that Putin and Erdogan, who has been mediating between Moscow and Kyiv since Russia sent its armed forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24, would hold in-person talks soon after a phone conversation in which they discussed efforts to facilitate grain exports from Ukraine.
Peskov made no mention on Tuesday of any bilateral meeting between Putin and Raisi in Tehran.

Ukrainian Rocket Strike Targets Russian Ammunition Depot
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 12 July, 2022
A Russian ammunition depot was apparently targeted by Ukrainian forces overnight, resulting in a massive blast captured on social media. The Ukrainian military’s southern command said the rocket strike targeted the depot in Russian-held Nova Kakhovka, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) east of the important Black Sea port city of Kherson, which is also occupied by Russian forces. Video on social media showed a massive explosion. The nature of the strike suggested that Ukrainian forces used US-supplied multiple-launch High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, to strike the area, The Associated Press reported. Russia’s Tass news agency offered a different account, saying that the target was a mineral fertilizer storage facility that exploded, and that a market, hospital and houses were damaged. Some of the ingredients in fertilizer can be used for ammunition. Ukrainian authorities also said that Russian fire struck the southern city of Mykolaiv on Tuesday morning, hitting two medical facilities and residential buildings. Four people were wounded in the shelling attack, Mykolaiv regional governor Vitaliy Kim said on Telegram. Air raid sirens sounded early Tuesday morning in the western city of Lviv and other areas of Ukraine as Russian forces continued to make advances. According to a Tuesday intelligence briefing from the British military, Russia is continuing to make “small, incremental gains” in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, where heavy fighting led the province's governor last week to urge its 350,000 remaining residents to move to safer places in western Ukraine. Yet many in the Donbas, a fertile industrial region in eastern Ukraine made of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, refuse — or are unable — to flee, despite scores of civilians being killed and wounded each week. The death toll in a Russian rocket attack that struck an apartment building in eastern Ukraine on Saturday has risen to 34. The head of the Donetsk regional military administration, Pavlo Kyrylenko, made the announcement on social media, saying nine wounded people had been recovered from the building in Chasiv Yar. The British intelligence briefing said Russia had seized the Ukrainian town of Hryhorivka and continued to push toward the Donetsk province cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. “Russian forces are likely maintaining military pressure on Ukrainian forces whilst regrouping and reconstituting for further offensives in the near future,” the intelligence briefing said. However, Russia may be relying more heavily on private forces, like the Wagner mercenary group, to avoid a general mobilization, the British said.

Turkey: New Details Revealed on Iranian Cell that Targeted Israelis
Ankara - Saeed Abdul Razzak//Asharq Al Awsat/July,12/2022
Turkish sources revealed new details about an Iranian cell that plotted to kidnap and assassinate Israeli citizens in Istanbul and whose members were arrested in June ahead of then-Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid’s visit to the country. A report by the Daily Sabah quoted Turkish sources on Sunday as affirming that the cell, comprised of eight Iranians, had been uncovered by the intelligence and Istanbul police. It published new pictures and details about its plot, noting that its members were staying at the very same hotel as their intended victims in the Taksim Square area on the European side of Istanbul. Their scheme included kidnapping former Consul General of Israel in Istanbul, Yosef Levi-Sfari, and his wife to kill them later. They also planned to attack Israeli tourists in Istanbul. The plot comes in retaliation to an Israeli operation in Tehran, in which Colonel Hassan Sayad Khodai was shot dead in May. Israeli media said Khodai was the deputy head of Unit 840 of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, which is responsible for carrying out operations outside Iran. The sources said security forces found three pistols and silencers with the detained Iranian cell members. The newspaper published a picture of the weapons and ammunition. They pointed out that the cell members arrived in Istanbul on different dates and met secretly, noting that the Turkish intelligence relocated the Israelis without drawing the attention of the Iranian agents. In late May, Israel warned its citizens against traveling to Turkey, citing Iranian threats of revenge for Khodai’s assassination. It renewed its warnings in the first two weeks of June. Turkey is a popular tourist destination for Israelis and the two countries have been mending their ties after more than a decade of strained relations. On July 23, Hurriyet newspaper reported that Turkish authorities detained five Iranian nationals suspected of involvement in an alleged plot to assassinate Israeli citizens in Istanbul. Lapid thanked Turkish authorities for their cooperation in allegedly foiling attacks against Israeli citizens in Turkey and warned that Israel would not “sit idly by” in the face of threats to its citizens from Iran. He made the comments after a meeting with his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, as the two countries press ahead with efforts to repair ties that have been strained over Turkey’s strong support for the Palestinians.

Shinzo Abe Invented the ‘Indo-Pacific’
Matthew Pottinger/The Wall Street Journal/July 12/2022
He broadened the world’s view of Asia, much to the consternation of the Chinese Communist Party.
Excerpt
President Trump visited Asia in November 2017. In Vietnam, he delivered a speech declaring a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” It signified a shift in the language leaders use to describe the world’s most populous region.
Mr. Trump actually borrowed the phrase from Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving postwar leader. Abe, who was killed by an assassin Friday, died knowing that his signature geopolitical vision—and the vocabulary used to describe it—has been thoroughly embraced across much of the region and beyond.
Of all the allied leaders who visited the Trump White House, none were more welcome than Abe. Leveraging their mutual love of golf, the two leaders built a friendship that provided crucial ballast to the U.S.’s Pacific alliances at a time when they were increasingly threatened by China’s militarism and America’s perennial temptation toward isolationism. By my reckoning, Mr. Trump had more conversations with Abe than with any other leader. Language was never a barrier; Abe’s favored interpreter, Takao Sunao, rendered the Japanese leader’s upbeat staccato into resonant English, even while clinging to the back of a racing golf cart.
*Mr. Pottinger, a former deputy national security adviser, coordinated Asia policy at the White House, 2017-21. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

The euro and the US dollar are at parity for the first time in 20 years
CNN/July 12/2022
For the first time in 20 years, the exchange rate between the euro (EUU) and the US dollar has reached parity -- meaning the two currencies are worth the same.
The euro hit $1 on Tuesday, down about 12% since the start of the year. Fears of recession on the continent abound, stoked by high inflation and energy supply uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on July 12-13/2022
To Save Ukraine, Slow Down on the Autobahn
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/July 12/2022
Rather as the US is an outlier among developed countries in equating freedom with gun ownership, Germany is almost unique in defining liberty as the absence of speed limits on the autobahn. That mentality, however, is now slamming into the imperative to save energy, which is in turn part of the West’s common effort to resist the warmongering of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In Europe, only the Isle of Man keeps Germany company in eschewing categorical highway limits. But driving on the curvy roads of a windswept island is hardly the same as surviving in the fast lanes of the world’s most obsessive car culture.
The other day, I was coasting in the right lane but briefly had to venture into the middle and left lanes — in Germany you never, ever, pass on the right.
I checked my rearview mirror, which showed only tiny dots in the distance — basically empty highway. Seconds later, I was in the left lane, going 130 kilometers per hour (about 80 mph), and looked in the mirror again. Three Porsches were suddenly on my tail, each a car’s length apart, all signaling left and flashing high beams to bully me out of the way and back into the slow lanes.
In an otherwise bureaucratized, over-regulated and rules-obsessed society, limit-less autobahns have come to symbolize the last remnants of freedom. At least they play that role for about half of Germans. That demographic skews male and conservative-libertarian. Politically, it’s represented by the center-right, including the Free Democrats, one of the junior partners in Germany’s current government. They made autobahn freedom a condition for joining the coalition.
The other half of the country mostly considers autobahn racing self-indulgent, dangerous and crazy. And yet it’s surprisingly hard to argue that the absence of speed limits kills more people. Germany has relatively few traffic deaths compared to other countries, and the fatalities that do happen occur mostly on rural roads that have speed limits.
But there’s also that other line of argumentation, having to do with wasted energy. Owing to the laws of physics, driving faster requires a lot more fuel. In an era of climate change, that counts against speeding. In a time of war, it does so twice over. Putin’s war machine requires Russia to be a petro-state. He uses his country’s coal, oil and natural gas in two ways. One is to earn money to pay his army. The other is to make other European countries, including Germany, dependent on his pipelines, and thus vulnerable to blackmail.
He’s already turned off the gas to Bulgaria, Poland, Finland, the Netherlands and Denmark, and throttled it to Germany and other countries. Germany’s energy minister, Robert Habeck, warns that Putin may shut off the pipelines completely, and has declared the second of three stages in an emergency plan that could end in rationing.
Salvation, if it exists, will come from all of society conserving energy, Habeck suggests. He’s asked people to take shorter, cooler showers, which makes sense. So does turning down the air conditioning in summer and the thermostat in winter, to take the train instead of flying, and to cancel unnecessary trips altogether. And why not dry your laundry in the sun when it shines? The list of other tricks is long.
But lowering speed limits is at the top. It’s the first of ten suggestions by the International Energy Agency, based in Paris, to reduce oil consumption. In Germany, of course, that means rekindling the old controversy about introducing a limit in the first place.
The average speed on German autobahns in 2019 was 125 kph (as I said, I’m average). The German Environmental Agency reckons that introducing a limit of 100 kph (about 62 mph) on autobahns, as well as lowering the limit from 100 to 80 kph on rural highways, would save 6.4 million tons of carbon dioxide — and many lives, especially on those rural roads. Greenpeace, an environmental lobby, estimates that this would reduce German oil imports by about 2.5%.
Is that a lot or a little? Here politics take over again. About 57% of Germans now favor a — temporary — speed limit. The Free Democrats would certainly put up a fight, and have to be seen to do so by their supporters. But they should remember that they’re also asking their coalition partners, the Greens and the Social Democrats, to reconsider their ideological aversion to nuclear power. In a time of war, everybody has to keep an open mind.
My own instincts happen to be liberal (in the classical sense, not the American). I’ve always taken short showers and recently made them even shorter — and I didn’t need Habeck or a law to convince me. By the same token, I’m now driving more slowly, too, and would be happy if other people voluntarily did the same. But if it takes a statute, so be it. We must hope that at some point in the future we’ll get all the energy we need from the sun, wind and oceans, so we can stop polluting our atmosphere and funding petro-dictators. Until then, the best we can do is to change our lifestyles — sometimes a little, other times a lot. The Ukrainians are fighting for freedom with their very lives. We’re being asked to decelerate. It’s not too much to ask.

Europe Has an America Problem
Emma Ashfrod/Asharq Al Awsat/July 12/2022
President Biden is in Europe, and talk of unity fills the air. At the Group of 7 meeting in Bavaria, Germany, leaders congratulated themselves for their decisions over the past few months and restated their support for Ukraine. They even took time for a “family picture,” the often awkward group shot of world leaders. At the NATO summit in Madrid, which begins on Tuesday, we can expect more of the same.
The self-congratulatory atmosphere is quite new. Just three years ago, NATO — frayed by failed interventions in Libya and Iraq, internally divided over its future and buffeted by Donald Trump’s derision — was declared “brain-dead” by President Emmanuel Macron of France. Now the picture is completely different. Four months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO stands as a re-energized bulwark against Russian aggression. European leaders across the continent, determined to come together, speak confidently of common purpose.
Yet for all the talk of European resolve, the past few months have in fact underlined something else: the continent’s dependence on the United States to resolve its security problems. That’s nothing new, of course. In many ways it’s the role America has played since the end of World War II, ensuring — even after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 — that Europe operated under America’s military umbrella.
But while this approach might save leaders from politically difficult choices in the short term, it’s ultimately a losing proposition. America, embroiled in domestic problems and ever more focused on the challenge from China, can’t oversee Europe forever. And Europe, facing a hostile and revisionist Russia, needs to look after itself.
These criticisms might sound counterintuitive. After all, Europe has made some major strides on defense in recent months. This is most visible in Germany, where the government has pledged to spend 100 billion euros, or $106 billion, more on defense over the next few years — a change so profound that the German press has adopted Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s description of it as a “Zeitenwende,” or turning point. Other countries, including Italy, Romania and Norway, have also pledged to substantially increase spending. These shifts strike at the common complaint that European states, pusillanimous and miserly, are “free riders” relying on America’s military largess for protection.
Yet if European states are reducing their free-rider problem, they have something perhaps more intractable: a collective-action problem. Simply put, the individual interests and inclinations of the European Union’s 27 members, whose countries encompass several thousand miles of territory, make it difficult to forge a common course of action. That’s true for many issues, among them economic reform and the role of the judiciary, but it’s perhaps especially acute for military and defense policy.
That applies both to NATO, of which all but six EU countries are members, and the European Union’s own Common Security and Defense Policy. Indeed, one core disagreement revolves around whether a buildup in the EU’s defense capabilities will actually undermine, rather than strengthen, NATO. To head off such concerns, many favor a division of labor — either by geography or based on specific military capabilities. Yet the precise relationship between the two remains an open question.
More profoundly, there are major differences in the perception and prioritization of threats. Central and Eastern European states closest to Russia logically view it as the biggest threat. From farther away, other problems loom larger. Germany and Northern European countries worry about terrorism, France focuses on extremism and unrest in former African colonies like Mali, while Greece and Italy are preoccupied by refugee policy and maritime security in the Mediterranean.
One might think that a major geopolitical shock like the war in Ukraine would have allowed for a Europe-wide “Zeitenwende”: a moment to reckon with these difficult questions and hammer out concessions that would allow progress to be made. And in the early weeks of the war in Ukraine, many of these divisions were indeed blotted out by shock and horror, with states largely united in their response to the war.
In the months since, however, these divisions have re-emerged, making themselves felt in new ways. Some countries — particularly France, Italy and Germany — are talking about ways to find a peace settlement in Ukraine, even as they continue to send weapons and funds. Yet polling in Poland suggests that it will not countenance peace until Russia is properly punished. The European Union, slowed by the need to reach a consensus, has struggled to keep up. Its much-anticipated Strategic Compass, a strategy paper released after the war started, is a buzzword-filled document that promises a “quantum leap forward” in defense — but does little to address these divisions in practice.
In the absence of continental consensus, the glue that continues to hold together European security is the United States. Since February, the trans-Atlantic relationship has slid back into a comfortable groove: The United States provides significant personnel and high-tech weaponry, forestalling the need for other NATO members to commit substantial resources or make tough choices about joint defense.
Politically, America’s presence reassures NATO members in Eastern Europe — who have become painfully aware since February that Western European states aren’t as willing to take a hard line on Russia — while allowing Germany to lead Europe without bearing too great a financial and military cost. The underlying disagreements haven’t gone away. But for as long as American troops and hardware are on the continent, European states can have their cake and eat it, too. It’s understandable that European leaders don’t want to engage in punishing political fights at a difficult time. And it is perhaps easy to assume, with 100,000 American troops in Europe, that the US commitment to European security is inviolable. Yet the Trump years should not be so easily forgotten. America’s commitment to Europe’s defense, overseen by Biden, may seem secure today. But with growing threats in Asia and turmoil in America’s domestic politics, it is most likely a matter of time before that changes.
Should he return to the presidency, Trump may well follow through on his threats to withdraw the United States from NATO. Even some of his less extreme compatriots are questioning America’s role in European defense; in May, 11 Republican senators voted against sending further military aid to Ukraine. There is also a growing consensus in Washington that the United States is urgently needed in the Indo-Pacific to handle the threat from China. Even the best-case scenario — an administration in Washington that remains committed to Europe — carries the risk that a crisis elsewhere could result in a hurried retreat, leaving European states high and dry.
American and European leaders may well spend the next days lauding the miraculous recovery of the trans-Atlantic alliance. Yet far from a panacea, America’s support amounts to a Band-Aid covering Europe’s biggest disagreements on defense. To be truly united, European leaders should start the hard work of resolving these differences and rip off the Band-Aid.

Why Arabs Are Fed up With the Palestinians
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/July 12/2022
The Palestinians can only blame themselves for antagonizing their Arab brothers and consequently losing the Arab money. The Palestinians have been spitting in the face of the Arab countries, while at the same time expecting these countries to continue funding them.
The Arabs are clearly not as naïve as the Americans and Europeans, who are continuing to pour millions of dollars annually on the Palestinians without conditions and without demanding accountability.
Had the Palestinians welcomed the many peace accords between Israel and the Arab states instead of condemning them and bad-mouthing the Arab leaders, they would have been in a much better situation today. They would have continued to receive financial aid from the Arabs and been able to use this money to build a better future for their children
The Arab countries have more urgent issues to deal with than the corrupt, thankless Palestinian leaders do. You can start with the welfare of their own people. The Palestinian leadership, by contrast, is happy to fail its people by indoctrinating generation after generation with bloodlust for Jews. When Palestinian society finds itself left in the global dust of progress, it can thank its leaders for bringing them to that sorry pass.
The Arabs are clearly not as naïve as the Americans and Europeans, who are continuing to pour millions of dollars annually on the Palestinians without conditions and without demanding accountability. Pictured: Palestinians burn a US flag in Bethlehem, on January 29, 2020.
The Palestinians are disappointed: their Arab brothers have stopped providing them with financial aid. The truth is that most of the Arab countries long ago turned their backs on the Palestinians. They can only blame themselves for ruining their relations with the rest of the Arab world.
It is ironic that while the European Union recently announced its decision to resume unconditional financial aid to the Palestinians, the Arab countries continue to completely ignore the Palestinians. It is also ironic that while the Biden administration continues to talk about providing financial aid to the Palestinians, the Arab countries do not seem to care at all about their Palestinian brothers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
The Palestinians receive a lot of lip service from the Arabs, but see hardly any money being channeled to their coffers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Consequently, for the past few decades the Palestinians have become almost entirely dependent on American and European taxpayer money.
Palestinian Authority (PA) Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh recently revealed that, with the exception of Algeria, the Arab countries have stopped sending financial aid to the treasury of the PA.
Shtayyeh refrained from offering any reason as to why the Arabs had decided to cut off the funding to the Palestinians.
Shtayyeh and the PA have condemned the Arab countries that signed normalization agreements with Israel during the Trump administration era. Some of these countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, used to help the Palestinians in many fields, including financial aid and providing jobs to tens of thousands of laborers.
The Palestinian leadership has accused the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan of "betraying" the Palestinian people, Jerusalem and Al-Aqsa Mosque (in Jerusalem) by agreeing to make peace with Israel.
It is these serious allegations that have alienated these countries and other Arabs, who are accusing the Palestinians of being ungrateful and biting the hand that feeds them.
Earlier this year, prominent Kuwaiti journalist Ahmed Al-Jarallah explained why he and many others are fed up with the Palestinians. Reminding the Palestinians of what the Gulf states have done for them over the years, Al-Jarallah wrote:
"We are the only ones who rescued them [Palestinians] in the year 1970 when they launched their war on Jordan. The late Sheikh Saad Al-Abdullah evacuated their leader Yasser Arafat from Amman. The Arabian gulf states, led by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, boycotted oil export to the western countries during the 1973 [Israel-Arab] war. Furthermore, Riyadh presented two initiatives to solve the conflict. Despite their [Palestinians'] support of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait and their participation in acts of intimidation, abuse and killing against Kuwaiti citizens, the Gulf states continue to support the Palestinians. All of this is just the tip of the iceberg of what the Gulf states and their people offered to the Palestinians, who were and still are ungrateful."
The Arabs are apparently not only fed up with the Palestinian leadership, but also with international organizations and agencies that help the Palestinians. Arab financial aid to the United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) has dropped by 90% in the past few years, according to the agency's spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasna.
In another sign of Arab disregard for the Palestinians, the Palestinian Islamic-Christian Committee for the Support of Jerusalem and the Holy Sites warned of the repercussions of drying up the Arab financial support provided to the city.
The committee said that this year witnessed a "dangerous and unprecedented decline" in the level of financial support provided by a number of Arab countries to Palestinian institutions in Jerusalem.
The committee added that a number of governmental and civil bodies that were formed in some Arab countries to provide direct support to dozens of Palestinian institutions were suspended for reasons that were not disclosed.
"Cutting off this Arab aid caused the disruption of vital services that were provided to Jerusalemites, especially in the health and educational fields," the committee added. "Dozens of cultural, social and sports institutions are suffering from a stifling financial situation that threatens to close them and lay off their employees."
The Palestinians can only blame themselves for antagonizing their Arab brothers and consequently losing the Arab money. The Palestinians have been spitting in the face of the Arab countries, while at the same time expecting these countries to continue funding them.
The Arabs are clearly not as naïve as the Americans and Europeans, who are continuing to pour millions of dollars annually on the Palestinians without conditions and without demanding accountability.
Had the Palestinians welcomed the many peace accords between Israel and the Arab states instead of condemning them and bad-mouthing the Arab leaders, they would have been in a much better situation today. They would have continued to receive financial aid from the Arabs and been able to use this money to build a better future for their children.
The Palestinian leadership, however, chose to spit in the well it has drawn from for many years, and now it is drinking the bitter waters of its decisions.
The Arab countries have more urgent issues to deal with than the corrupt, thankless Palestinian leaders do. You can start with the welfare of their own people. The Palestinian leadership, by contrast, is happy to fail its people by indoctrinating generation after generation with bloodlust for Jews. When Palestinian society finds itself left in the global dust of progress, it can thank its leaders for bringing them to that sorry pass.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Why Biden's 'Gestures' to the Palestinians Will Not Bring Peace or Stability
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/July 12/ 2022
The Biden administration might do itself a favor if it understood that previous "gestures" made by Israel did not contribute to peace and stability in the region, and did not advance any peace process between the Israel and the Palestinians.
There is much that the Palestinian Authority can do to ease tensions and help create a suitable atmosphere for the resumption of the peace process with Israel. The PA could, for example, stop the incitement against Israel, halt payments to families of terrorists, condemn terrorism and crack down on terror groups operating under its control.
It is this unresponsive governance by the Palestinian Authority to everything except killing Jews -- not the absence of "gestures" -- that strengthens the support for Hamas.
The Palestinians correctly spot these fig-leaf public relations "gestures" as just political plumage for Abbas that does not require him to change how he mistreats them. So why not try Hamas?
It was hard, in fact, to find anyone in the Gaza Strip who saw Israel's withdrawal as a positive development or as a sign that Israel wanted peace and calm. Instead, it was seen as a validation of terrorism: We shoot, they run. Great! It's working! So, let's keep on doing that!
Until today, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group controlling the Gaza Strip, continues to portray the withdrawal as a "defeat" for Israel and "victory" for the terror groups. In addition, Hamas continues to describe the "expulsion" of Israel from the Gaza Strip as a first step towards achieving its goal of eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Iranian-backed Islamist state.
Here is what the official Fatah Facebook page published as late as May 25, 2022: "No statute of limitations will apply to our historical right to take back all the Palestinian land from the [Jordan] River to the [Mediterranean] Sea, including the [Jordan] River and the [Mediterranean] Sea" -- thereby making an alliance with Hamas all the more tempting in order to accelerate the process.
The "gestures" and "concessions" will, in fact, be seen by the Palestinians, like Israel's retreat from the Gaza Strip, as a reward for their ongoing incitement and terrorism against Israel.
The "gestures" the Biden administration is demanding are, according to the Israeli group Regavim, illegal...
In addition, talk about increasing the Palestinian Authority presence at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Israel and Jordan -- to signal joint sovereignty and authority over Israel's border and the secession of its control and sovereignty over the Jordan Valley -- will only create an immensely destabilizing situation, for which the Biden administration will justly be blamed.
If the PA is unable or unwilling to fight against the Palestinian terror groups, how can it be trusted to assume control over a border crossing between Israel and Jordan? Does the Biden administration seriously believe that Abbas's representatives at the border crossing would thwart attempts by terrorists to smuggle weapons into Israel?
The US delegation, however, does not seem to care about the Palestinian incitement and terror, or even how the Palestinian people are misgoverned.
The Biden administration is making a big mistake by forcing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority. Rewarding it for bad behavior will only aggravate tensions between the Palestinians and their government, embolden the extremists among them and drive the Palestinian people even further into the waiting arms of Hamas.
The Biden administration might do itself a favor if it understood that previous "gestures" made by Israel did not contribute to peace and stability in the region, and did not advance any peace process between the Israel and the Palestinians. Pictured: Then US Vice President Joe Biden meets with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah on March 9, 2016.
On the eve of President Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East, Israel is once again being asked by the US administration to make "gestures" to the Palestinian Authority. The purpose of these measures, according to the Americans, is to strengthen the Palestinian Authority (PA) and its president, Mahmoud Abbas.
The PA, of course, is not being required by the Americans or other international parties to make any "gestures" or "concessions" to rein in terrorism (here, here, and here), support for it, murder as a jobs program, or to treat its own people with increased regard for either a more prosperous future or human rights.
There is much that the Palestinian Authority can do to ease tensions and help create a suitable atmosphere for the resumption of the peace process with Israel. The PA could, for example, stop the incitement against Israel, halt payments to families of terrorists, condemn terrorism and crack down on terror groups operating under its control.
Yet there is no reason why the Palestinian leadership should do anything so long as no one is asking it to.
Instead of halting the incitement, the Palestinian Authority is continuing to encourage hostility and even violence.
As the Biden administration is talking about the need for "gestures," PA Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh, just this month, falsely accused Israel of using the bodies of slain terrorists in Israeli medical laboratories. This is the type of whipping people up that prompts Palestinians to carry out more terrorist attacks.
The Biden administration might do itself a favor if it understood that previous "gestures" made by Israel did not contribute to peace and stability in the region, and did not advance any peace process between the Israel and the Palestinians.
On the contrary, Israeli "gestures" and "concessions," such as the release of terrorists from prison, the increase in the number of Palestinians permitted to work in Israel, and the removal of checkpoints have been interpreted by the Palestinians as signs of weakness, capitulation and, by the leadership, as permission to continue mistreating their people. It is this unresponsive governance by the Palestinian Authority to everything except killing Jews -- not the absence of "gestures" -- that strengthens the support for Hamas.
The Palestinians correctly spot these fig-leaf public relations "gestures" as merely political plumage for Abbas that does not require him to change how he mistreats them. So why not try Hamas?
Similarly, the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005 was also seen by the Palestinians not as a kind or generous "gesture," but as a "retreat" in the face of terrorism -- especially as it took place after a wave of suicide bombings and rocket attacks against Israel. It was hard, in fact, to find anyone in the Gaza Strip who saw Israel's withdrawal as a positive development or as a sign that Israel wanted peace and calm. Instead, it was seen as a validation of terrorism: We shoot, they run. Great! It's working! So, let's keep on doing that!
Until today, Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group controlling the Gaza Strip, continues to portray the withdrawal as a "defeat" for Israel and "victory" for the terror groups. In addition, Hamas continues to describe the "expulsion" of Israel from the Gaza Strip as a first step towards achieving its goal of eliminating Israel and replacing it with an Iranian-backed Islamist state.
In 2008, the Israeli government thought that a series of "gestures" and "concessions" would strengthen then Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. The Israeli measures were announced on the eve of a visit to the region by then US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
The Israeli measures did not help Fayyad; he was eventually forced to resign because of tensions with the veteran Palestinian leadership, including Abbas, who saw him as a threat to their authoritarian rule.
Fayyad was never popular among the Palestinians: he had never spent a day in Israeli prison and had not been involved in terrorism.
In Palestinian culture, it is more important if one graduates from an Israeli prison than from the University in Texas at Austin, where Fayyad studied before going on to work at the World Bank between 1987 and 1995. When he ran in the 2006 Palestinian parliamentary elections at the head of an independent list called Third Way, he won only two seats.
The "gestures" that Israel is now being asked to make are not going to bolster the standing of Abbas and his senior officials in the Palestinian Authority. These moves are also not going to change the PA's and Palestinians' perceptions about Israel or the US, as past experiences clearly show.
A recent public opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 59% of Palestinians view armed attacks against Israelis as serving the national interest of the Palestinian people. Another 55% support a return to an armed intifada (uprising) and clashes with Israel. In addition, the poll found that a majority of Palestinians (65%) are opposed to dialogue with the Biden administration.
The "gestures" and "concessions" will, in fact, be seen by Palestinians, like Israel's retreat from the Gaza Strip, as a reward for their ongoing incitement and terrorism against Israel.
The "gestures" the Biden administration is demanding are, according to the Israeli group Regavim, illegal:
"A first-of-its kind visit by a US President to east Jerusalem without any Israeli presence of accompaniment, signaling that our capital is divided between two sovereigns, constitutes a substantive violation of US law, Israeli law and diplomatic protocol."
According to some reports, one of the "gestures" includes a visit by Biden to a Palestinian hospital in east Jerusalem. There is, of course, nothing wrong with visiting a hospital, but if you insist on going to east Jerusalem without being accompanied by Israeli officials, then you are seeking to advance what is, in reality, a frustrating improbability: that Jerusalem is not the capital of Israel.
Here is what the official Fatah Facebook page published as late as May 25, 2022: "No statute of limitations will apply to our historical right to take back all the Palestinian land from the [Jordan] River to the [Mediterranean] Sea, including the [Jordan] River and the [Mediterranean] Sea" -- thereby making an alliance with Hamas all the more tempting in order to accelerate the process.
In addition, talk about increasing the Palestinian Authority presence at the Allenby Bridge border crossing between Israel and Jordan -- to signal joint sovereignty and authority over Israel's border and the secession of its control and sovereignty over the Jordan Valley -- will only create an immensely destabilizing situation, for which the Biden administration will justly be blamed.
The Palestinian Authority has done almost nothing to disarm the terror groups operating under its control in several parts of the West Bank, especially Jenin and Nablus. If the PA is unable or unwilling to fight against the Palestinian terror groups, how can it be trusted to assume control over a border crossing between Israel and Jordan? Does the Biden administration seriously believe that Abbas's representatives at the border crossing would thwart attempts by terrorists to smuggle weapons into Israel?
The opening of a US consulate/embassy to the Palestinians would, as the Biden administration seems to want, only increase the Palestinian Authority's appetite to engage in more incitement and violence against both the Jews and their own people.
It would have been more helpful had the Biden administration demanded that the Palestinians stop the incitement and disarm all the terror groups operating in its areas. The terror groups treat Palestinians even worse than they treat Jews.
The US delegation, however, does not seem to care about the Palestinian incitement and terror, or even how the Palestinian people are misgoverned.
The Biden administration is making a big mistake by forcing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority. Rewarding it for bad behavior will only aggravate tensions between the Palestinians and their government, embolden the extremists among them and drive the Palestinian people even further into the waiting arms of Hamas.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip
Michael Eisenstadt/Washington Institute/July 12/2022
Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.
For a number of reasons, Iran may attempt to disrupt and upstage Joe Biden’s imminent trip to the Middle East, his first as president. When President Trump conducted his first foreign trip in May 2017—to Saudi Arabia for a joint summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation—the Iran-backed Houthi rebel group in Yemen launched a missile strike on Riyadh just hours before his arrival. In response, Trump proposed killing Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF)—an idea he eventually acted on three years later. (Tellingly, the United States also tried to kill Abdul Reza Shahlai—the QF commander in Yemen—on the same day Soleimani was targeted.) On July 15-16, President Biden will be attending a similar event in Jeddah: a summit of the GCC+3, a collective that includes Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan along with the council’s six member states. Might Iran or one of its proxies try to disrupt this event, and if so, how?
Conflicting Trends and Considerations
Over the past six months, Iran appears to have gradually, though unevenly, reined in proxy activity against U.S. targets in Iraq and Syria. As Tehran continues to advance its nuclear program, entrench itself militarily in Syria, and support Lebanese Hezbollah’s precision missile project—and while its Iraqi proxies pummel Turkish forces and Kurdish oil infrastructure—overall proxy attacks against U.S. interests in Iraq and Syria are down by about 80 percent from peak levels in December 2021-January 2022, when pro-Iran militias intensified attacks after threatening to expel U.S. forces from Iraq if they did not leave by the end of 2021. With the exception of an April-May spike in rocket and drone incidents, most claimed attacks in Iraq over the past six months have involved the use of improvised explosive devices against coalition logistical convoys manned by local contractors—acts of performative resistance that pose little risk to American personnel. Rocket attacks against U.S. personnel in Syria have continued at low levels (about once a month) through most of this period.
Open imageiconChart showing Iranian proxy attacks against U.S. and coalition targets in Iraq and Syria.
Iranian and proxy activities ebb and flow regularly due to varied and often obscure factors, and there are several possible reasons for the current downward trend:
To reduce friction with Washington while stringing out the nuclear talks and pushing ahead with its nuclear program. This could help it gain further leverage over the United States while obtaining more expertise and experience, whether prior to returning to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or as a prelude to a slow-motion nuclear breakout.
To repair its image in Iraq, where an anti-Iran backlash emerged after its militia partners played a central role in repressing the Tishrin protest movement in October 2019. This backlash found its fullest expression when pro-Iran parties performed poorly in the October 2021 parliamentary election.
To avoid overextending itself militarily as it intensifies efforts to retaliate against Israel’s escalating covert action campaign, which has targeted the nuclear program, the Qods Force, and industrial infrastructure inside Iran. Most recently, these efforts have included a series of strikes against Israeli shipping in the Gulf region (which succeeded) and a plot to kill Israelis in Turkey (which failed).
To (temporarily) heed U.S. warnings that have followed each spike in attacks—warnings that may have been reinforced by various unacknowledged activities—pending renewed attempts by Tehran to test U.S. risk and response thresholds.
Indeed, a return to higher levels of activity against U.S. interests is certainly possible. In the present case, Iran will likely see the GCC+3 summit as both a provocation on its doorstep and a tempting opportunity to scuttle a possible U.S.-Gulf reset. An attack during the summit could hold several benefits for Tehran: humiliating U.S. officials and their Saudi hosts; demonstrating that Washington cannot protect its friends even while the president is visiting, thus undermining efforts to create a new regional security architecture; causing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to think twice about acceding to U.S. requests for increased oil production, while underscoring that Iran is the ultimate arbiter of Gulf (and thus global) energy security; and providing Tehran with a much-needed win after its numerous recent setbacks in countering Israel’s humiliating and damaging covert campaign.
If Iran takes direct action, this would not be the first time it has done so while a foreign leader is visiting the region. In June 2019, IRGC naval forces conducted a limpet mine attack on a Japanese tanker in the Gulf of Oman, just as the late Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe was visiting Tehran in an unsuccessful bid to ease U.S.-Iran tensions.
What Might Tehran Do?
Iran has a large, diversified military toolkit and a target-rich environment from which to choose—and while Saudi defenses have been beefed up since the September 2019 Aramco attack, significant gaps remain. Iran’s leadership tends to work from a well-worn playbook, relying on a limited repertoire of actions and repeating what has worked well in the past (or even what has not worked so well). Thus, a symbolic missile launch into an unpopulated area on the eve of the summit is certainly possible. Alternatively, Tehran might see a destructive cyberattack against Gulf oil infrastructure as a less provocative but still effective way of accomplishing its goals.
But Tehran also generally prefers to make a connection between perceived challenges and how it responds to them. Hence, given recent U.S. efforts to support the creation of regional air and missile defense and maritime security architectures to counter Iran, and to increase the supply of Gulf oil in the hope of lowering prices at home, Tehran might opt to attack oil transport or infrastructure at sea or on land—its targets of choice in recent years. Diverting oil tankers, conducting limpet mine attacks on such vessels, or launching nonlethal but destructive drone and missile strikes on oil infrastructure would enable Iran to demonstrate the weakness of regional defenses and the vulnerability of the world’s oil supply.
Who Might Do It?
The UN-mediated ceasefire in Yemen would seem to prevent the Houthis from playing a role in any summit drama. Houthi forces have not launched a cross-border attack into Saudi Arabia since the start of the ceasefire on April 2.
But Iran retains a stable of Iraqi proxies it could use, and some have conducted attacks against Saudi oil targets in the past, such as the Kataib Hezbollah drone strike on the East-West Pipeline in May 2019. Iran could also conduct drone and/or cruise missile strikes on its own as it did in September 2019, operating from launch sites in Iraq (as it has in the past) or at sea while using convoluted flight paths to create ambiguity about the strikes’ point of origin. Indeed, Iran has conducted a growing number of unilateral cross-border attacks using drones and missiles; the rise of IRGC Aerospace Force commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh in the years since Soleimani’s death might reinforce this trend.
Policy Implications
Washington should be prepared for the possibility that Iran or one of its proxies will try to upstage the president’s visit, as happened in 2017. To this end, the United States should:
Quietly warn Tehran that there will be assured, costly consequences for Iran should it engage in military action before, during, or after the summit
Increase surveillance of Iranian assets in and around the Gulf, since the knowledge that it is being watched has sometimes deterred Iran
Respond swiftly and decisively to any Iranian action, lest inaction undermine U.S. credibility and claims to leadership. This is also the best way to ensure that Iran’s move backfires.
Finally, Washington should quietly remind Tehran that its last attempt to disrupt a U.S.-GCC summit set in motion a series of events that ultimately did not end well for the Islamic Republic, and had long-term consequences that it still has not recovered from.
*Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/prospects-iranian-july-surprise-during-bidens-gulf-trip

Does Iran take Israel-Gulf air defense cooperation seriously? - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/July 12/2022
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east-news/article-711761
Iran has already been striking the US in the region in dozens of rocket and drone attacks over the past year.
Reports over the weekend said that Iran was upping its rhetoric against any sort of US-backed air defense pact that might link Israel and several Arab countries together. Ostensibly, such cooperation would be defensive, but Iran and its proxies are currently the only real threat to the region.
Iran uses proxies to launch drones and missiles across the region, which includes terrorizing the Kurdish region of Iraq, using drones in Syria to threaten Israel and US forces, basing drones in Yemen and Iraq to threaten the Gulf, and also threatening shipping.
Iran has been privy to reports in Western media about this potential cooperation. However, its recent statements offer the same boilerplate attacks on “Zionists” as in the past. The Islamic Republic appears to have upped the rhetoric on the eve of US President Joe Biden’s visit. The latest threats imply that if a pact does come into being and if it “threatens” Iran then Tehran might strike the US or other targets.
However, Iran has already been striking the US in the region in dozens of rocket and drone attacks over the past year.
Iran would prefer to put hurdles in the way of any cooperation by using its contacts in Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait and other states. It also knows that any real cooperation, in the form of a “pact” or something that is public and official, requires a lot of work. It’s one thing for countries to share information or even conduct defense deals; it is another to have a real working agreement.
Will the concept of a “Middle East Air Defense Alliance” group come into being? This is the terminology that has been reported in Reuters and other media since June. Defense Minister Benny Gantz has backed this concept. US lawmakers also want to push the “DEFEND” act which is supposed to build on the Abraham Accords. Washington also wants to counter Iranian drones.
Israel and its new friends in the Gulf have indeed had many more meetings in recent years. Gantz recently said there had been 150 of those meetings and some $3 billion in arms sales. That’s a large amount. But arms sales and meetings don’t necessarily make a strong pact and it remains to be seen what exactly the Biden visit will lead to.
Iran's court
So the ball returns to Iran’s court. Tehran has been outspoken here and there about opposition to any kind of defensive grouping. The regime is hostile to the Abraham Accords in general, so it’s unclear how its existing threats, actions and opposition will increase. Iran must tread carefully because, while it enjoys some impunity to carry out attacks in Syria and Iraq, too many actions aimed at destabilizing the Gulf could result in uniting countries against it.
A hint of how Iran has to tread carefully can be seen in reports over the weekend that Britain’s Royal Navy seized weapons that Iran was smuggling via speedboat in January and February.
The navy says one of its warships seized Iranian weapons, including surface-to-air missiles and engines for cruise missiles, from smugglers in international waters south of Iran early this year. Tehran thus acts outside the norms of international law, but it is being closely tracked in its behavior.
Iran must consider, before acting, how it will cause the US, UK, France and others to be united against its actions. In addition, with the Iran deal talks continuing, Tehran must weigh whether it wants to upend the potential deal or use its threats to achieve one. Pushing countries in the region together into forming a defensive alliance by provoking and escalating against them could harm Iran’s interests.
Iran therefore must consider this Catch-22: The more it acts to oppose a defensive pact, the more it gives reason for that pact’s formation. But if the Islamic Republic does nothing, then the countries seeking to form the pact may feel they face no opposition and so may move forward anyway.

Iran’s Economy is Growing, But So Is Iranian Discontent
Saeed Ghasseminejad/The National Interest/July 12/2022
Why is Iran’s economic growth not translating into a better quality of life for Iranians?
The Iranian economy is growing at an impressive rate, but daily strikes and protests have become the norm. The benefits of growth do not appear to be trickling down to the Iranian people, although rampant inflation keeps pushing down the value of their wages. Rather than the people, the likely beneficiaries of growth are corrupt officials and the security apparatus responsible for keeping the people down while waging proxy wars abroad.
Real GDP increased 4.3 percent in the Persian year of 1400, according to Iran’s Statistics Center. The oil and gas sector experienced the fastest rate of growth, as it did the previous year. But the service sector, the economy’s largest, also grew 4.5 percent, whereas previously it shrank.
The country’s foreign trade also continued growing. In the first quarter of the Persian year of 1401 (spring 2022 on Western calendars), non-oil foreign trade grew by 19 percent, quarter to quarter, reaching $25.5 billion. That figure consisted of $13 billion in exports and $12.5 billion in imports, generating a trade surplus of half a billion dollars. The good news from the first quarter follows the export of $48 billion of non-oil goods last year, the highest amount in the country’s history.
The country’s export of oil has also increased. An informed source at the oil ministry told pro-regime media that Tehran exported more than one million barrels of oil per day in the spring of 2022, bringing in 60 percent more revenue than in the spring of 2021.
Despite these trends, Iranians remain angry. Retirees marched across the country last month. In Isfahan they chanted, “Sedition of ‘57’ is the cause of nation’s poverty”, ‘57 referring to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, or 1357 on the Persian calendar. The media also reported several labor strikes and teachers protests across the country, while the regime arrested tens of teachers.
Regime officials accuse “foreign hands” of being behind the strikes and protests and warn of conspiracies to create a gap between the “system” and the people. A recent poll shows only 28 percent of Iranians are satisfied with the performance of President Ebrahim Raisi. His administration brags about growth, but the only growth Iranians see is growing prices.
The country’s twelve-month point-to-point inflation in June 2022 jumped to 52.5 percent, 13.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Prices rose 12.2 percent in June alone, 8.7 points more than in May. Making matters worse, Raisi’s subsidies reform increased the inflationary pressure on essential goods such as bread, which comprises a large share of the basket of goods used by low-income Iranians.
Official and unofficial reports show that 30 percent of the Iranian population is living below the absolute poverty line. Experts and regime insiders estimate that the share of the population below the relative poverty line is 60 to 70 percent.
Why is Iran’s economic growth not translating into a better quality of life for Iranians? Inflation is part of the answer, but the problem runs much deeper. First, the regime is corrupt, even by its own admission, and the fruit of any growth goes first into the pockets of officials and their families. Second, while a minority of Iranians support the regime, that minority is concentrated in the massive machinery of oppression that includes the Basij paramilitary, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Law Enforcement Force, and the clergy. All of these groups receive preferential treatment in the distribution of financial resources and economic benefits. Third, the regime prioritizes foreign adventures over domestic prosperity, spending heavily on proxies like Lebanese Hezbollah and clients like Bashar al-Assad.
Despite the growth of the past two years, Iran’s real GDP is still smaller than what it was in March 2018, just before the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal and began re-imposing sanctions. Thus, what is left after regime insiders, supporters, and foreign proxies take their share is very limited and is further depreciated by the inflation that the Raisi administration’s subsidies reform is making so much worse.
Hence, protests and strikes are likely to continue and intensify over the next few months. The regime’s response is likely to be greater repression.
*Saeed Ghasseminejad is a senior advisor on Iran and financial economics at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and Financial Power (CEFP). Follow Saeed on Twitter @SGhasseminejad. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

‘Statesman Abe’s strategic vision was impressive’
Cleo Paskal/The Sunday Guardian/July 12/2020
Abe recognised the usefulness of India in the Indo-Pacific. The Japanese, and Abe, really pushed for India, including with the Quad: Grant Newsham
In this edition of Indo-Pacific: Behind the Headlines, we speak with Grant Newsham, a retired United States Marine Corps Colonel, about the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Newsham was the Marine Attaché in Tokyo and the first Marine Liaison Officer to the Japan Self-Defense Forces. In the latter role he helped create Japan’s “Marine Corps”.
Q: How did Shinzo Abe change Japan, and the world?
A: There have been around twenty Japanese Prime Ministers since Yasuhiro Nakasone was Prime Minister from 1982 to 1987. Nakasone was the last one you would call a statesman. Since then the only one who deserved that title was Shinzo Abe.
Abe managed to do the almost impossible. He shifted Japan’s basic approach to foreign affairs and defense. Before him, the widespread approach was one of mindless pacifism—pretending the country faced no threats and didn’t have to defend itself, and Japan had little influence regionally or globally—other than what its money could buy temporarily.
Abe turned that around to where today the common wisdom is that Japan is in a dangerous neighborhood, needs to beef up alliances with the US and others, and is an important power. That was unthinkable before Abe. Anyone trying and saying what he did would have been called a warmonger looking to redo World War II.
Q: What were some of the changes he made?
A: In the decade before he took office took office in 2012, the defense budget was cut year after year. After, it was increased year after year.
He got the Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) taken more seriously. He was convinced the JSDF had a role to play in defending the nation. And a military was for fighting, if needed.
He had the JSDF go out in the region and do exercises, including with other countries. That would have been unthinkable a few years before.
He got laws reinterpreted for collective self-defense, which meant Japan could support the Americans and potentially were able to support other friendly countries.
He also had the defense guidelines with the US redone to make Japan a more useful ally to the Americans.
He also really wanted to get the Constitution changed to get JSDF recognized as a normal military. He didn’t achieve that, but the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida might try to get it done after the next election.
Internationally, he saw Japan’s role in the region and the world differently than all others, and he travelled around the world and spoke well about Japan and what its interests are at home and abroad. He also knew enough to keep his mouth shut about some of his views.
He patiently tried to make friends with South Korea, and saw Taiwan as a nation essential to Japan’s defense. And he also almost sold submarines to the Australians, and that would have been a strategic earthquake in a good sense, but the Australian administration of Malcolm Turnbull went insane. Abe saw Japan’s interest in a global sense.
During his administration, there was a clear recognition that Japan’s economic strength was something to capitalize on. You saw it when Abe kept the idea of the Trans-Pacific Partnership alive even when the United States backed off. That showed leadership.
At the same time, he also did a very good job of engaging with Obama and Trump—and those weren’t only ones he did well with.
In terms of diplomacy he made a lot of progress for Japan. He kept the US alliance and made it even stronger. He built other alliances and spoke up for Taiwan. He increased defense spending—as much as he could (which wasn’t so much), and also increased defense capabilities—he was very strong on those points. And his comments about China were similarly strong.
It took political courage and a lot of effort to get it done. Turning all that around was hard and slow—like turning around a cruise ship. But Abe did it—now even a lot of academia and media like Asashi Shimbun don’t complain much anymore.
His strategic vision was impressive. He was a force—you take him out and where is that voice? I can imagine they are launching some toasts in Beijing today. That’s how important he was.
Q: Did he face opposition?
A: I’ve seen some gleeful commentators talking about his killing. Abe was often called a right-winger, an extreme nationalist, he was none of those. At best you might call him a conservative. In the US many of his policies would be considered on the left, like national health care. He is pigeonholed by the foreign commentariat and media. It shows a real lack of understanding of Japan.
He always faced plenty of opposition. What he accomplished is even more impressive given that opposition. But in accomplishing all this he was really viciously hated by people within and outside his party, academia, media, some in the international community. The shooting is almost a predictable outcome from that real vitriolic hatred.
And, while he had plenty of enemies, he was also very influential among a large number of the body politic. He was much more popular than any Prime Minister I can remember.
Q: How did India fit into Shinzo Abe’s worldview?
A: If you visit Yasukuni shrine you’ll see the memorial to Justice Pal who wrote in favor of the Japanese defendants at the War Crimes trial after World War Two. Abe’s grandfather, Kishi, had been arrested by the Americans. Abe’s views of that era are very different than mine, and they did shape him.
Abe had real feelings for India and Indians. He saw India (other than the colonial administration) as having been aligned with Japan during World War II and tried to build on that. He saw the Japan and India relationship as historic and he worked to support it.
In modern times, Abe recognized the usefulness of India in the Indo-Pacific. The Japanese, and Abe, really pushed for India, including with the Quad. Bringing India into that dynamic is essential, and he worked hard on it.
The idea of the Quad really originated with him. Also the “security diamond” and the Free and Open Indo-Pacific concept. I think he had those ideas a long time before and, when he finally got the chance, he moved with it. Of course, he had people around him, but he deserves credit for all of these things.
Q: What happened after Mr. Abe stepped down?
A: One thing did surprise me—I thought once he stepped down, Japan would lose momentum. In Japan politicians always just moved money around and didn’t really have much interest in foreign affairs. I thought Japan would lose focus again.
To my surprise that momentum and direction continued. And, even after leaving office, Mr. Abe had been very clear spoken about the need for Japan to really improve its defense. And to help defend Taiwan. There’s that expression, Taiwan’s defense is Japan’s defense.
He’s also talked about Japan having access to nuclear weapons. American nuclear weapons ideally, but implicit in that is Japanese as well. Not everyone in Japan listened to him, but he was influential. And having him say those things is sort of like firing for effect. It was adding to the momentum that Japan has now.I think the Kishida administration is going to keep it going. The advisors at a number of levels think a lot like Abe.
The real threat to Japan—i.e. from China—is one that is so widely accepted now it is almost common wisdom, from the general population to the military and political class and even the media—though there is still opposition, not least from the business community and hold-outs in the bureaucracy.
Q: How can Japan’s friends help now?
A: What would help now is if the Americans say what they need, clearly, to be able to work effectively with Japan against their common threat.
And for others, such as India, to be more with the Japanese, to make the military, economic, political relationship more concrete. Indians, if they have initiative and desire, could play a bigger role with the Japanese regardless of the Americans.
Q: How will Japan, and the Kishida administration, respond?
A: This really is unusual. A shock to all Japanese. I think they will respond to Abe’s killing in a pretty good way, after they catch their breath. It will be a reminder of what is already known—that Japan is in a dangerous neighborhood and does have enemies. And it may result in even more support for the sort of policies represented by Abe. That’s how it will be interpreted—it can have a bracing effect, to not lose focus. I’m optimistic Kishida’s administration could keep it going, that Abe’s ideas are going to continue via the Kishida administration.
He was a rare figure that doesn’t come along very often. He was immensely important. He will be missed.
Cleo Paskal is non-resident senior fellow for the Indo-Pacific at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Follow her on Twitter @CleoPaskal. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Actions, not words, to reset the US-Arab strategic alliance
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/July 12/ 2022
The healthiest diplomatic relationships are essentially transactional in nature. Just as NATO requires intimate coordination between America and the Europeans, there are deep-seated reasons why, since the foundation of the modern Gulf states, they and the US have been the closest of allies.
Friendship arose from hard-nosed mutual interests: Gulf states were essential partners for advancing policies throughout the broader Middle East region, crucial for global energy security and economic stability, and vital components of the war against terrorism. The world has changed profoundly, but the factors underpinning this mutual reliance are no less significant in 2022 than they were in 1973, 1991 or 2001.
However, Arab states are confused as to what US partner they are engaging with, amid dizzying about-turns in policy and the repudiation of agreements and long-standing alliances — Washington at times going out on a limb to placate Tehran, or failing to satisfactorily act when missiles rain down on a strategic ally, despite longstanding security commitments.
During recent visits to GCC states I have been struck by the strength of discontent toward recent US policies, particularly the lack of a coherent Middle East strategy, and State Department indifference to deep-seated security concerns. There is a perception of double standards in how Western states have vigorously intervened in the Ukraine conflict.
This frustration sometimes manifests itself as a desire to retaliate by embracing Russia and China. However, the utter failure of these two countries to lift a finger in support of containing Tehran makes it clear that for the foreseeable future GCC states are right to continue prioritizing their alliance with the West, even if this frustrating relationship frequently fails to deliver on its promises.
Recent US presidents have tended to stage a major set-piece Gulf visit, and then consider they’ve done everything required to manage the relationship. Instead, in fulfilling his pledge to “strengthen a strategic partnership going forward that’s based on mutual interests and responsibilities,” Joe Biden should view his visit this week as just the initial foundation stone for resetting this alliance, which will require considerable further effort, investment, mutual respect and goodwill.
Biden will be sitting down with leaders from some of the best educated and most rapidly advancing economies in the world, who are deeply proud of their cultural heritage and all-too-well apprised of the challenges facing the region.
GCC states already have a mutual defense agreement. The Arab League has a long history of vacuous pronouncements about joint Arab action, though Arab states have often ended up as bystanders in regional conflicts. Participants in this week’s discussions must therefore avoid lofty concluding statements that have zero practical impact. This requires Arab states to be well organized among themselves, with realistic objectives.
If Biden is serious about winning Gulf support on the global stage, then this week’s summit must be about action, not eloquent platitudes; it must provoke the realization in Tehran that the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged in recent days that talks with Iran on reviving the 2015 deal to curb its nuclear program were moving in the wrong direction. There was never any prospect of these negotiations delivering the necessary guarantees to prevent Tehran from acquiring atom bombs and continuing to flood the region with missiles and militias.
The Arab summit should therefore be a first step toward implementing the necessary security regimen, based on the likelihood of no deal with Iran. There needs to be an absolute commitment — from Western states, Arab nations, and Israel — that there are no circumstances in which Iran would be allowed to acquire military nuclear capabilities, along with serious discussions about the measures needed to underpin such a commitment.
There can be no meaningful regional security without measures to push back Tehran’s influence in states such as Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, which risk wholly falling into the Iranian camp; particularly as these countries have been used to launch missiles and drones against peaceful nations.
There has been discussion about a NATO-style alliance between regional states. In practice, this would be a somewhat more complex arrangement. Nations that have technically been in a state of war with Israel would be unlikely to suddenly commit themselves to going to war in its defense.
Saudi Arabia is the architect of the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which requires Israel to accede to the borders of the Palestinian territories in exchange for full normalization of relations. The Arab world may be deeply preoccupied with other strategic challenges, but the Palestinian issue remains a matter of intense Arab and global concern. If Israel desires a transformed relationship with the entire region, this first requires a fundamental transformation in its treatment of the Palestinian nation.
Because of the sensitivities about coordination between Arab states and Israel, there will probably be no detailed announcement about what regionwide measures are to be put in place — including missile defense coordination, where there has already been some progress.
The advantage to such strategic ambiguity is that Iran will be left in the dark about precisely what forces may be ranged against it. As I wrote here last week, the regime has suffered a succession of disastrous intelligence failures in recent months. Greater regional coordination, intelligence sharing, and mutual military support could significantly ratchet up the prospects for interrupting Tehran’s hostile nuclear and military ambitions.
Biden’s face-off with Russia and efforts against Tehran are part of the same broader confrontation: aspiring to rein in states that reject the rules-based international system and seek to achieve their goals through military force, paramilitary adventures, arms proliferation and terrorism.
If Biden is serious about winning Gulf support on the global stage, then this week’s summit must be about action, not eloquent platitudes; it must provoke the realization in Tehran that the rules of the game have fundamentally changed.
In 2003 a deeply misguided American invasion flung open the gates for creeping Iranian pre-eminence throughout the region. Is it not too much to ask Washington to play a central role in once again slamming these gates shut and containing the beasts within?
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Failed Arab states
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/July 12/.2022
At least four Arab countries, namely Libya, Sudan, Iraq and Syria, are looking for a new formula for survival.
Putting Egypt aside, which remains an exception due to its ancient history and the presence of a deep state there, it is unlikely that there will be a future for countries in the region which are experiencing growing turmoil today. Among those that have become failed states are Libya, Sudan, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
There are two countries that are close to failure and are still going through a transitional phase: Lebanon and Tunisia. In Lebanon, whose rationale for existence has vanished, it is not known what will happen at the end of Michel Aoun's term in office on October 31. The hegemony of Hezbollah, which represents Iranian control of the state and its institutions, muddies Lebanon’s prospects.
In Tunisia, it remains to be seen whether the popular referendum on the new constitution scheduled for July 25 will be a turning point towards the re-emergence of a strong centralised state. The referendum will show whether it is possible to put an end to current tensions. The conflicting pressures at play are the shortest way to the disintegration of the Tunisian state and its institutions and the transformation of the country into another Arab state living in the shadow of the chaos, which the Muslim Brotherhood worked to spread through the Ennahda movement.
In Libya, the tragedy was that the fall of the Gadhafi regime finished off what remained of the state. Libyan cities are witnessing today manifestations of real popular revolt against those who have held power since the fall of the “Jamhiriyah”. Gadhafi’s was a scandalous regime, which was nothing but an expression of a dictatorship practiced by a man obsessed with power with billions of dollars at his disposal, but which he used to destroy the country and fulfil his personal fantasies.
There is despair among the Libyans who still long to restore their state. This will be difficult in the absence of an influential force that knows what it wants and dares to stand up to various militias that have parcelled out control of Libya. Meanwhile officials only share common features: opportunism, short-sightedness and the absence of any political maturity. It may be that the only hope for Libya is that it possesses oil at a time when the world, especially Europe, needs energy.
Sudan is no better than Libya after the military and the Muslim Brotherhood worked together to fragment state institutions and prevent the establishment of a civil democratic system. Jaafar al-Numeiri, who ruled from the late 1960s to the mid-1980s, failed to develop Sudan and his successor, another officer, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who himself remained in power for thirty years, took the country to no better a place.
Well, the Sudanese people were able to defeat the Bashir regime, with all its backwardness, but the question is, do those who finally rose up and took to the street have anything other demand beside the permanent departure of the military? The answer is that the Sudanese people need political awareness, simply because since independence in 1956, their rulers have failed to establish a viable regime.
Sudan, which needs a transitional phase leading to elections that establish civilian rule, finds itself in a vicious circle which is difficult to break, in the absence of any clear-sighted leadership of its protest movement.
The Iraqi situation is unlike any other in the region. There is a complete blockage on all internal fronts in light of America's failure to establish an alternative regime to Saddam Hussein's rule after it demolished it in 2003. Saddam's regime was very bad, but the US administration did not understand in 2003 that sectarian quotas would not so much build a democracy in Iraq as hand the country over to Iran. The Iraqi regime is no longer viable. Iraq itself is no longer a viable country after it tied its fate to that of the Iranian regime.
Iraq is an example of a failed state like Syria. As with Baghdad, the Syrian regime does not have any solutions to any internal problems. The regime in Damascus remains at the mercy of the Iranians, who come and go whenever they please. They take whatever they wish from Bashar al-Assad, while Israel strikes the country whenever and wherever it wants!
Considering what they have experienced, least four Arab states, namely Libya, Sudan, Iraq and Syria, are looking for a new formula for survival. It will take societies there many more years to find that formula in order to reassemble their systems.
The bottom line is that the entire region is in labour after all the tremors it has experienced since the Iraqi earthquake in 2003 and the events of the “Arab spring” starting 2010. But the big question that will arise sooner or later is what should be done to restore the minimum level of stability in the Middle East. This has become a global necessity after Russian President Vladimir Putin provoked war inside Europe, causing Europeans to now wonder if they face a challenge akin to that posed by Adolf Hitler.
It is becoming clear that the world is changing rapidly and the war in Ukraine will be a long one. The internal Arab wars will also be long. The striking observation is that there is no US leadership at this moment. But is US disengagement a blessing in disguise at the beginning of the third decade of the twenty-first century?