English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 30/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.january30.22.htm

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006

Bible Quotations For today
Burying Jesus in the Garden's Tomb after Pilate allowed Joseph of Arimathaea, to take the body down from the cross
John 19/38-42: After these things, Joseph of Arimathaea, being a disciple of Jesus, but secretly for fear of the Jews, asked of Pilate that he might take away Jesus’ body. Pilate gave him permission. He came therefore and took away his body. Nicodemus, who at first came to Jesus by night, also came bringing a mixture of myrrh and aloes, about a hundred Roman pounds. So they took Jesus’ body, and bound it in linen cloths with the spices, as the custom of the Jews is to bury. Now in the place where he was crucified there was a garden. In the garden was a new tomb in which no man had ever yet been laid. Then, because of the Jews’ Preparation Day (for the tomb was near at hand), they laid Jesus there.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 29-30/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 7,726 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
Aoun Visits Dar al-Fatwa, Stresses Importance of Sunni Community's Role
President Aoun visits The Sunni Dar El-Fatwa
Lebanon's FM Goes to Kuwait with Answers to Gulf Suggestions
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi Meets with Del Col
Minister Abiad pays solidarity visit to Al-Makassed Hospital: It is our duty to help hospitals that serve citizens
Mikati chairs cabinet session on draft budget law, discussions to resume on Monday
“Bahaa Hariri has made his decision to preserve Martyr Rafic Hariri’s national heritage,” tweets al-Sayegh
Lebanon condemns attack on Baghdad Airport
Bahaa Hariri enters Lebanese politics, tries to reassure Sunnis, Saudis
Beirut’s shattered art being rebuilt in multinational effort
Hezbollah Is Using UNIFIL to Deliver Political Messages

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 29-30/2022
Iran Condemns 'Destabilizing' Attack on Baghdad Airport
Iran nuclear talks paused as delegations await final ‘political decisions’
Diplomats have been meeting in the Austrian capital for several weeks straight in the search for a breakthrough to revive the 2015 deal.
Biden to Send Troops to Eastern Europe amid Ukraine Diplomacy Push
France and Germany send envoys to help ease Ukraine-Russia border tensions
Foreign ministers hope four-way talks with Moscow and Kiev will lead to solution
Clashes near Syria prison hit by ISIS: Monitor
UK's Johnson to Urge Putin to 'Step Back' to Avoid Bloodshed
Russia’s Risky Options beyond Full Ukraine Attack
Erdogan threatens Turkish media with new censorship measures
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed receives Ethiopia's prime minister in Abu Dhabi
Abiy Ahmed was accorded an official reception on his arrival

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 29-30/2022
Question: "What happens after death?"
Istanbul's Mayor: Erdoğan's Worst Nightmare/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 29/2022
What role for political parties in Jordan?/Shakir Rafayah/The Arab Weekly/January 29/2022
How the world is failing the Afghan test/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 30/2022
In the game of political chess Russia positions itself well against the West/Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/January 29/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 29-30/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 7,726 new Corona cases, 15 deaths
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced on Saturday the registration of 7,726 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 907,824. The report added that 15 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Aoun Visits Dar al-Fatwa, Stresses Importance of Sunni Community's Role
Naharnet/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
President Michel Aoun on Saturday visited Dar al-Fatwa in Beirut and met with Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan. “I stressed to His Eminence the importance of the role that the dear Sunni community is playing in preserving Lebanon’s unity and its political diversity, as well as the importance of participation with the rest of Lebanon’s components in national and political life and in the junctures that draw Lebanon’s future,” Aoun told reporters after the meeting. Asked about ex-PM Saad Hariri’s suspension of his role in politics, the President said: “Certainly we don’t want the Sunni community to withdraw from political action in Lebanon… We don’t want to witness a boycott (of elections), because Lebanon would lose one of its major components and this would threaten the society that we’re used to.”As for the parliamentary elections, Aoun said all the necessary preparations have been made so that the polls be held on time. “I don’t see a reason for postponement,” he added. Aoun also said that his talks with the Mufti tackled “Lebanon’s relations with the brotherly Arab countries.”“We had identical viewpoints on the need to establish the best and firmest relations with them, and that the priority must remain for preserving civil peace and stability in the country,” the President added. “There is a current endeavor that we will seek to give the necessary importance so that the ties return like they were and even better,” he said, apparently referring to Lebanon’s response to the Kuwaiti paper.

President Aoun visits The Sunni Dar El-Fatwa
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, stressed "The importance of the role played by the honorable Sunni community in preserving Lebanon's unity and political diversity, and on participation of all components of Lebanon in the national and political life and the entitlements that shape the future of Lebanon,” noting that "Dar Al-Fatwa is a safety guarantee.”
The president said: “We do not want the Sunni sect to leave the political life in Lebanon, because we have heard that a boycott may occur, and we do not want this boycott to happen, because when Lebanon loses one of its major components, it threatens the society that we are accustomed to and brought with.”
The President also stressed that “Lebanon today, more than ever, needs the solidarity of its people and their solidarity around their state,” noting that there is no reason to postpone the elections.”
On Lebanon's relations with the Arab countries, President Aoun stressed the "necessity to establish the best and strongest relations, while the priority remains to preserve civil peace and stability.
The President disclosed that “efforts are currently directed to the importance of agreement and the return of relations to the way they were before and even better.”
President Aoun’s statement came after his visit, at 10:00 am this morning to the Dar Al-Fatwa, where he met with the Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Dr. Abdulatif Darian, in a meeting that lasted until 10:30 am.
President Aoun and the Mufti made the following statement:
“I met with His Eminence the Mufti of the Republic and discussed with him the current situation and recent developments. I stressed to His Eminence the role that the honorable Sunni community plays in preserving Lebanon's unity and political diversity, and the importance of participating of all components of Lebanon in the national and political life and the entitlements that draw the future of Lebanon and its people .
I stressed that Lebanon today needs more than ever the solidarity of its people and their support for their state and all constitutional institutions. We also discussed the difficult social and economic conditions that the country is going through, and the importance of cooperation between all parties and components to get out of the current crisis in a way that preserves the dignity of the Lebanese citizen and their right to a decent life.
We discussed Lebanon's relations with the brotherly Arab countries, where we agreed on the need to establish the best and strongest relations, while the priority remains to maintain civil peace and stability in the country.”
Q & A:
Q: Is Dar Al-Fatwa a safety guarantee for all Lebanese?
A: Certainly, and His Eminence the Mufti is the head of the honorable Sunni community, and we are committed to it spiritually, morally and in faith.
Q: Do you reassure the Lebanese about the parliamentary elections? is there a delay, or will they take place on time?
A: We have completed all the preparations for the elections to take place on time, what drives people to be suspicious are some foreign visitors who come to Lebanon and ask us if the elections are taking place , which has sowed doubts among the people who have been repeating them. But I see no reason to delay.
Q: What do you say to the Arab countries, especially the Arab Gulf countries?
A: There is a current endeavor that we will work on giving it the necessary importance until an agreement is reached and relations return to the way they were before and better.
Q: What is your position on Prime Minister Hariri's apology from participating in the parliamentary elections, and is this visit related to Prime Minister Hariri's position?
A: Certainly, we do not want the Sunni sect to leave political life in Lebanon, because we have heard that a boycott may take place, and we do not want the boycott to happen, because when Lebanon loses one of its major components, this threatens the society that we are accustomed to and that we have been brought up with. .
Mufti Derian bid farewell to President Aoun at the main entrance of Dar Al-Fatwa, thanking him for his visit. --- Presidency Information Office

Lebanon's FM Goes to Kuwait with Answers to Gulf Suggestions
Associated Press/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Lebanon's foreign minister headed to Kuwait Saturday to deliver answers to a list of policy suggestions made to the country by Arab Gulf nations in an attempt to end an impasse between both sides. Ahead of his departure, Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib made it clear that Lebanon will not disarm Hizbullah group, one of 10 confidence-building measures requested from Beirut. Relations between impoverished Lebanon and the wealthy Gulf states are at their lowest levels in decades, a crisis triggered late last year when a Lebanese politician spoke critically of the Saudi-led war against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.
Following Information Minister George Kordahi's comments, Saudi Arabia recalled its ambassador from Beirut and banned all Lebanese imports, affecting hundreds of businesses and cutting off hundreds of millions in foreign currency flows to Lebanon. Several Arab countries followed Saudi Arabia's step.
Bou Habib will attend an Arab foreign ministers meeting in Kuwait on Sunday during which he will hand his Kuwaiti counterpart Sheikh Ahmed Nasser al-Mohammed Al-Sabah official responses to the Gulf nations' suggestions. Al-Sabah had delivered them personally to Beirut earlier this month.
"I am not going to hand over Hizbullah's weapons nor end Hizbullah's existence. This is out of the question in Lebanon," Bou Habib told satellite broadcaster Al-Jazeera, calling the group a "Lebanese party par excellence" that is active in the government but does not dominate politics in Lebanon.
"We hope to have excellent relations as in the past" with Gulf nations, Bou Habib said, adding that Lebanon had suggestions for solving problems between the two sides, but without elaborating. The list handed over by Kuwait's foreign minister and circulated in Lebanese media included implementing U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of all militias in Lebanon. Major anti-corruption reforms should be implemented as well, all verbal or real attacks on Gulf nations should cease. Bou Habib said Lebanon respects international resolutions, but added that time was needed for some. Kordahi, who made his comments before taking his post, resigned in December, but the move did not lead to improved relations between the two sides. The crisis goes deeper than Kordahi's comments aired in late October, however. It is rooted in Saudi Arabia's uneasiness over the rising influence of Iran in the region, including in Lebanon, once a traditional Saudi ally and recipient of financial assistance from the oil-rich kingdom. In the weeks that followed Kordahi's resignation, tensions between the Iran-backed Hizbullah and Saudi Arabia continued to rise.

Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi Meets with Del Col
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, received at the patriarchal edifice in Bkirki, UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander, General Stefano Del Col, with discussions reportedly touching on the current situation.

Minister Abiad pays solidarity visit to Al-Makassed Hospital: It is our duty to help hospitals that serve citizens
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022 
Minister of Public Health, Dr. Firass al-Abiad, paid a solidarity visit to Al-Makassed Hospital in Beirut this afternoon, after repeated attacks on its medical staff which prompted the hospital to announce the closure of its emergency section. Following a tour of the hospital’s various departments, Minister Abiad held a meeting with the President of the Makassed Society, Dr. Faisal Sinno, members of the Board of Trustees, the Executive Director of the Hospital, Dr. Mohammad Badr, and the medical body, including the two doctors who were on duty in the emergency unit and were subjected to an attack two days ago. Al-Makassed Hospital administration welcomed the Health Minister’s thoughtful gesture, stressing that his visit gives support to the hospital which needs protection by the state especially in its ER section. In turn, Minister Abiad pointed out that "Al-Maksassed has a special place in the hearts of the Lebanese, given its distinguished social role as a charitable association, hospital and educational institutions.""It is our duty to help institutions that serve citizens, particularly Al-Makassed which is a non-profit association that aims solely to cover its deficit," Abiad asserted. In a statement to the attending press, Abiad said that his visit "is a message to the community confirming that the state is present and exercises all its duties towards the health and security of citizens and the security of the medical body. It is also a message of support by the government and PM Najib Mikati to the hospitals that are part of the civil organizations, which are carrying out their duties towards the citizens and helping the state in this respect."“Therefore, it is important for the emergency section at Al-Makassed Hospital to resume its operations as soon as possible and provide the required services to the community,” Abiad underlined.
The Health Minister disclosed herein that he has obtained reassurances from the Minister of Interior to follow-up on the issue of hospital security, hoping that there would be a quick solution "to ensure the wellbeing and personal safety of health practitioners."
Abiad also revealed that the Lebanese Parliament has recently adopted a decision to tighten penalties on anyone who assaults a health practitioner, adding that it is very essential to implement this decision. In response to a question regarding the huge financial amounts requested by hospitals in order to receive patients, the Minister of Health pointed out that “hospitals and emergencies have duties that go beyond the financial situation towards patients, especially those who are in a critical condition, where aid and assistance must be provided in the first place while the financial issue can be dealt with later on…”
In this connection, Abiad commented on the "unfortunate death" of a young girl in a hospital emergency unit, stating that the Ministry of Public Health has opened an investigation into the case, and is in the process of organizing a mechanism to receive citizens' complaints and solve them immediately.
"The Public Health Ministry understands the huge pressures that hospitals are exposed to, and will support hospitals that carry out their duties; however, it will also be on the lookout for every hospital that takes advantage of the patient for financial matters," Minister Abiad underscored.

Mikati chairs cabinet session on draft budget law, discussions to resume on Monday
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022 
Prime Minister Najib Mikati chaired Saturday morning a cabinet session at the Government Serail devoted to continuing the study of the draft budget law for the year 2022, whereby discussions will be completed in a session to be held at 9:00 a.m. upcoming Monday.
Following the session, Acting Minister of Information, Education Minister Abbas al-Halabi, said the cabinet resumed its open session this morning to discuss the draft budget law, chaired by Prime Minister Najib Mikati and in presence of various cabinet ministers, the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, the Director-General of the Republican Palace, the Director-General of the Ministry of Finance and the Director of Revenues. Al-Halabi indicated that after thorough deliberation, “Article 13” of the draft budget bearing on a monetary advance to the “Electricité du Liban” Company was suspended for further study, whereby the cabinet asked the Energy Minister to provide justifications for the loan request within the electricity plan, after distributing this plan to the ministers for discussion. He added that the discussion of “Article 15” of the draft budget law was also suspended at the request of the Social Affairs Minister, pending a proposal he is to submit later on, while other articles were finalized. “The cabinet added some articles that would increase the state's financial resources without constituting, if approved, a burden on citizens,” al-Halabi noted, stating that the Council of Ministers will resume its meetings on Monday, starting 9:00 a.m. until the afternoon, as well as upcoming Wednesday morning.

“Bahaa Hariri has made his decision to preserve Martyr Rafic Hariri’s national heritage,” tweets al-Sayegh
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022 
Member of the Democratic Gathering, MP Faisal al-Sayegh, said Saturday via Twitter: "Politics does not know stagnation and vacuum…It is clear that Sheikh Bahaa Hariri has made his decision to preserve the national heritage of Martyr Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, and work to strengthen it and re-correct its course…and he expects the loyalists, led by his brother, to keep pace with his efforts and support the process of saving Lebanon and returning it to the Arab incubator and the international system.

Lebanon condemns attack on Baghdad Airport
NNA/Saturday, 29 January, 2022 
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates condemned, in a statement, "the targeting of Baghdad International Airport with missile strikes that caused material damage."The ministry also expressed "Lebanon's solidarity with the brotherly government and people of Iraq in the face of the repeated attacks that have affected it in recent times."

Bahaa Hariri enters Lebanese politics, tries to reassure Sunnis, Saudis
Reuters/The Arab Weekly/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Lebanon’s Bahaa Hariri declared on Friday he was entering Lebanese politics, saying he would join a battle “to take back the country” and follow in the footsteps of his slain father just days after his brother, Saad, stepped away from public life. In a recorded message, Bahaa, 55, said he would “continue the journey” of his father, Rafik al-Hariri, who had established the Hariri family as the dominant player in Lebanon’s Sunni community before his assassination in 2005. Bahaa said, “I will continue the path of martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri,” adding that he will be in Lebanon soon. Baha tried to present himself as the natural candidate to fill the void left by his brother’s withdrawal from politics and sought to show his ability not only to lead the Sunnis but also to contain Hezbollah’s domination. “Through partnership and solidarity, we will enter the battle to take back the country and reclaim its sovereignty from its occupiers,” said Bahaa, an apparent reference to the Iran-backed Shia group Hezbollah. Bahaa is a Saudi-Lebanese national whose business interests include real estate developments in Jordan and Lebanon, according to his website.
The first message from Bahaa was to the Sunni community.
He said that “any misinformation or intimidation” alluding to a power vacuum among Lebanon’s Sunni Muslims “serves only the enemies of the country.”“It’s a signal that he will not allow a void in Sunni politics, that he is stepping in to carry the mantle,” said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center. “At the same time it is very difficult to see him filling the void, unless there is regional backing and solid financing behind him. If he is willing to spend money on the Sunni scene, perhaps he might have a chance.”Saad’s decision opened a new phase in Lebanon’s sectarian politics and will accelerate the fragmentation of the Sunni community which his family dominated for 30 years with Saudi support. But the community if expected to field candidates to the election even after Saad Hariri’s exit. The other message from Bahaa was to Saudi Arabia. Its essence was that he will not follow his brother’s accommodationist policies towards Hezbollah. Saad was chosen to take on his father’s political mantle in 2005 and served as prime minister three times. The early years of his career were marked by confrontation with Hezbollah that sparked a brief conflict in 2008. Then he chose the path of compromises with the militant Shia party.
In his announcement on Monday, Saad said his decision to accommodate Hezbollah aimed to spare Lebanon civil war but had cost him his fortune and “even brothers”, a reference to tension with Bahaa. His brother Bahaa has always taken a different stand in this regard offering fierce criticism of Saad’s compromises with Hezbollah and its allies. According to Lebanese sources, the Saudis have been sceptical in the past about Bahaa’s leadership abilities seeing him as “impulsive” and lacking experience after he sidelined himself for many years from Lebanese politics. Bahaa will not be a candidate in the elections and will instead back electoral lists across Lebanon under the banner of Sawa Li Lubnan, a movement he founded and financed with the aim of reform, Jerry Maher, his media adviser, said.

Beirut’s shattered art being rebuilt in multinational effort
The Arab Weekly/January 29/2022
The return of art works damaged in the catastrophic August 2020 Beirut port explosion has taken a further step with the display of 17 restored canvases at the capital’s Museum of Art (BeMA). The pictures in the museum’s “Lift” exhibition have undergone painstaking restoration by seven experts, four from BeMA itself and three German graduates from the Conservation Institute of Cologne’s University of Applied Sciences. Their work involved cleaning the canvases and mending tears using microscopes and special light, then retouching the scratches. For six weeks last autumn BeMA also brought in six graduate interns to help them. The pictures involved are by celebrated Lebanese artists such as Jamil Molaeb, Hussein Madi, Amine El Basha, Shawki Chamoun, Paul Guiraguossian, Rafik Majzoub, Edgar Mazigi, Nizar Daher, Hassan Jouni and Bibi Zoghbe. They include pieces from the BeMA and Ministry of Culture collections exhibited at the Grand Serail, as well as others from local galleries and private collectors. The restoration has been funded by the Icelandic government as part of UNESCO’s flagship initiative Li Beirut.
At the opening of the Lift exhibition, Costanza Farina, Director of the UNESCO Office in Beirut, pointed out that “historic buildings, cultural heritage and artworks, represent the soul of a people and in turn the soul of Beirut. These are so much more than mere objects, they tell a story of an individual, of a society and its people.”Farina added “UNESCO Heritage preservation and the revival of cultural life is at the centre of UNESCO’s engagement in Lebanon within the Li Beirut initiative. Culture fuels innovation fosters creativity and is an asset for economic development. It is a critically important investment that we must collectively support.”Just over a year ago, curators took a different slant on the cultural carnage caused by the 2020 blast. They staged the “Wounded Art” exhibition at Beirut’s Villa Audi in which some 60 damaged canvases and sculptures were displayed, most of them just as they were found after the explosion. A few had been repaired, but in such a way as to still show their wounds, with one canvas actually stitched as it were with surgical sutures. After the devastating Beirut explosion, UNESCO, along with museums including the Louvre in Paris, pledged “cultural first aid” to the Lebanese capital to help save damaged heritage. The Arab Fund for Arts and Culture also launched a fundraising campaign known as the Lebanon Solidarity Fund aimed at supporting the city’s art and culture community.

Hezbollah Is Using UNIFIL to Deliver Political Messages
Asharq Al Awsat/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105934/%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%88%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d9%88%d9%91%d9%84-%d9%82%d9%88%d8%a7/
The repeated attacks against the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are political messages from Hezbollah and Iran to the UN and international community. Three attacks against the peacekeeping force were reported in one month alone. Never have there been this many attacks against the international troops in the space of one month. The attacks took place amid international calls that the Iran-backed Hezbollah party lay down its arms and for Lebanon to implement UN Security Council resolution 1701 and 1559.
UNIFIL has, meanwhile, taken a firmer stance against these assaults, more so than it has ever done before. In a sharp tone, it demanded that the perpetrator be held to account, calling on the Lebanese authorities to carry out a probe. This marked a shift in its tone as UNIFIL usually used to announce an investigation in such attacks and that it was coordinating with the Lebanese military. Resolution 1701 was issued in August 2006 to end the Israeli war on Lebanon. It gave UNIFIL the jurisdiction to carry out the necessary security measures in areas where it is deployed in southern Lebanon. Among other points, the resolution demands that areas of UNIFIL's deployment are not used for hostile attacks of any kind. The resolution provides protection for UN facilities and employees, guarantees their freedom of movement in humanitarian work and protects civilians, while respecting the role of the Lebanese government.
The resolution effectively expanded the role of UNIFIL, which was first formed and deployed in Lebanon in 1978. Since then, the UN troops have been deploying at least 400 patrols a day. The troops have rarely come under attack and when they do, they usually happen before their mandate is extended in August of every year.
Political and field changes must have happened for three attacks to take place against UNIFIL in one month. In November alone, three assaults were reported against the troops. One attack was reported in the town of Shakra on December 24, another in the town of Ramia on December 25 and the third in Bint Jbeil on January 3. Often, "locals" are blamed for attacking UNIFIL.
'Locals' and Hezbollah
Lebanese academic and political researcher Dr. Mona Fayad rejects accusations that "locals" are behind these attacks. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, she said that such excuses are "not fooling anyone." Rather, she said Hezbollah, which is "hiding behind the people", should be held responsible.
She said the party has managed over time to establish an authority that is independent of the Lebanese state. One of the ways it managed to reach this position is its assuming of the role of "speaking on behalf of the resistance community and labeling as 'locals' people, especially Shiites, whom it mobilizes whenever the party needs them to exert pressure on a certain side. That way the party avoids direct confrontation."
Political motives
The frequency of the recent attacks has raised questions over their motives and political messages to the international mission. UNIFIL was firm in demanding a probe into the attacks, rejecting attempts aimed at restricting its freedom of movement in the South. Fayad noted the latest attack when a routine UNIFIL patrol was assaulted even though it did not veer off its main route. Past attacks have been blamed on patrols changing their routes without coordinating with the Lebanese army or on troops taking photos in specific locations.
Fayad said the latest attacks are taking place at a time when the residents of the South feel that they need UN troops given the security and peace they have established in the area since the implementation of resolution 1701. Prior to that, they had never experienced such peace and calm, she added. At a time of upheaval in the rest of the country in recent years, the South has enjoyed relative calm, with the assassination of Shiite dissident Loqman Slim last year as the only major incident. He was killed in the South, in an area that is filled with surveillance cameras and where Hezbollah must be very familiar with.
Hezbollah, continued Fayad, has exploited the "army, resistance and people" slogan to exert pressure on various sides, while still avoiding turning attention to it. Indeed, Hezbollah is not mentioned when attacks on UNIFIL are reported, but rather the "locals" are the ones being blamed. The party uses such tactics to give the impression that it is implementing resolution 1701.
Change in UNIFIL's tone
After the latest attack on January 25, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said the peacekeepers were not trespassing on private property, but were passing through a routine route. They were carrying out their duties according to resolution 1701 to preserve stability in the South.
He stressed that the resolution grants the troops complete freedom of movement and the right to deploy patrols in their area of operations. The attacks against the men and women who are serving peace are deemed as crimes by Lebanese and international laws. The Lebanese authorities must probe these crimes and put the perpetrators on trial, he demanded.
Tenenti's statements mark a shift in tone. Fayad said the peacekeepers will no longer accept the excuse that the attacks were sparked by them changing their patrol route or that they were taking photos. The change in the spokesperson's tone is a sign that the confrontation is growing because the UN mission senses a shift in the equation and an opportunity for it to play a better role, she explained. Furthermore, Fayad said these changes "are not restricted to Lebanon alone," but they are tied to the Vienna nuclear talks with Iran.
International messages
Political researcher and retired Gen. of Staff Khaled Hamade said the timing of the attacks are more significant than the assaults themselves.There is no doubt that Hezbollah is behind the attacks, which are tied to regional developments, Hamade told Asharq Al-Awsat. The developments point to significant changes on the ground in the region. Iran is seeking to use its regional cards in response to its setbacks in the region, he explained. Iran, not Hezbollah, should be blamed for the attacks on UNIFIL because the party is an extension of Tehran in Lebanon.
Iran is seeking to "shuffle all regional cards," said Hamade. He cited the developments in Iraq that is stumbling in forming a new government. He also noted the attempt on the life of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi. He pointed to the repeated rocket attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia by the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen. These are all signs of Iran's reactions in regions where it wields influence, stressed Hamade. Moreover, the attack carried out by ISIS against Gweiran prison in northeastern Syria is "one of the cards Iran is using to exert pressure in the region." Lebanon is another one of Iran's cards and it is using UNIFIL to deliver messages. Hamade said Tehran is using all the cards at its disposal in reaction to the setbacks it has suffered. In Lebanon, Hezbollah does Iran's bidding by attacking UNIFIL. By attacking UNIFIL, Iran is saying that it can obstruct the implementation of resolution 1701, explained Hamade. Lebanon is helpless in responding to or thwarting such a violation, so the government often takes a very vague stance that does nothing in affecting the situation on the ground.
UN cover
Meanwhile, fears have been growing in the South that the attacks would force UNIFIL to pull out of Lebanon, which would cost the country one of its last remaining international covers as it grapples with an unprecedented economic crisis. Hamade eased these concerns, saying the peacekeeping force will remain. The attacks will not force UNIFIL to withdraw, but the repeated incidents will prompt international reactions, perhaps even a Security Council meeting. "The Council will not be extorted and will not allow the obstruction of an international resolution," he stated. "Furthermore, Hezbollah itself does not want the UN troops to withdraw because it will lose a precious card in its extortion."Another factor is Israel, said Hamade. It wants an international force deployed in the South because it ensures its security. Iran itself also wants UNIFIL to stay so that it can continue on delivering its messages.
Hezbollah wants the troops to remain so that it can keep its attention focused on internal Lebanese affairs, added Hamade. It will continue to abide by resolution 1701, implementing it "with an Iranian twist and a way that serves its interests."

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 29-30/2022
Iran Condemns 'Destabilizing' Attack on Baghdad Airport
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Iran's foreign ministry on Saturday condemned a rocket attack against Baghdad airport that took place the previous day as an act that seeks to "destabilize" Iraq. Six rockets were fired Friday at the Iraqi capital's airport, causing damage to one runway and two civilian planes but no casualties. It was the latest in a string of attacks that the US blames on Iran-linked armed groups. The attack was not immediately claimed. Iran condemns "the targeting of Baghdad airport" in an attack that aims to "destabilize" Iraq, foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said in a statement. "Such suspicious actions have created insecurity and unrest in Iraq, paving the way for the ill-wishers and the insurgents, and affecting the government's services to the Iraqi citizens," he added. The rockets fell around civil installations at the airport, damaging an out of service Boeing 767 belonging to state-owned Iraqi Airways.
The attack prompted Kuwait Airways to suspend its flights to Iraq, the airline said on Twitter. Recent months have seen rocket and drone attacks target the United States embassy in Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, a US diplomatic facility at the airport and troops belonging to a US-led coalition stationed at Iraqi bases. Such attacks mounted after the US assassinated the commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Major General Qassem Soleimani, and his Iraqi lieutenant Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, in a January 2020 drone strike near Baghdad airport. The attacks are rarely claimed but they are routinely pinned on pro-Iran factions, who demand that US troops deployed to help Iraqi forces fight the Islamic State jihadist group leave the country. The U.S.-led coalition ended its combat mission in Iraq in December, but has kept roughly 3,500 of its soldiers in the country to offer training, advice and assistance to national forces. Recent rocket attacks in Iraq have also come amid a tense domestic political situation there. Violence has lately targeted Iraqi politicians and parties, mainly consisting of grenade attacks, but also extending to one rocket assault near the home of a key politician, amid tensions surrounding the formation of a new government. An election in October saw the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political wing of pro-Iran ex-paramilitary coalition Hashed al-Shaabi, lose most of its seats. It alleged the polls were rigged. "The Islamic republic of Iran has always supported the establishment and maintenance of security in Iraq... and supports the actions of the Iraqi government in ensuring stability," Khatibzadeh added.

Iran nuclear talks paused as delegations await final ‘political decisions’
Diplomats have been meeting in the Austrian capital for several weeks straight in the search for a breakthrough to revive the 2015 deal.
Reuters/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
The latest round of talks to salvage the Iran nuclear deal have been put on pause, the European Union’s coordinator said on Friday, calling for “political decisions” to break the deadlock. Diplomats have been meeting in the Austrian capital for several weeks straight in the search for a breakthrough to revive the 2015 deal involving Iran, the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. The EU has played the role of mediator and the bloc’s Enrique Mora tweeted, “Participants will go back to capital(s) for consultations and instructions to come back next week. “Political decisions are needed now.”
Chief negotiators for Britain, France and Germany put out a statement saying, “Everyone knows we are reaching the final stage, which requires political decisions. “Negotiators are therefore returning to capitals for consultation.”Russia’s representative Mikhail Ulyanov made similar comments on Twitter noting “negotiations have reached advanced stage when political decisions are needed.“The 8th round is expected to resume next week.”A US State Department spokesperson described January as “the most intensive period of talks on a mutual return to full implementation of the JCPOA to-date,” referring to the nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
“Final stage”
“Everyone knows we are reaching the final stage, which requires political decisions. Negotiators, including (US) Special Envoy (Robert) Malley, are therefore returning to capitals for consultations this weekend.”Talks to rescue the faltering accord began in the Austrian capital in April and, after a five-month suspension, resumed in November. The deal had given Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme. But after the US pulled out and reimposed sanctions in 2018 under Donald Trump, Iran began dramatically stepping up nuclear activities. Joe Biden’s presidency helped relaunch the negotiations but Washington has been taking part only indirectly, leaving the Europeans to meet the Iranians. Then on Monday, Iran for the first time said it was open to direct negotiations with the US, which quickly declared itself ready to hold talks “urgently”. “Our understanding is Iran has not yet agreed to direct talks,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said Thursday. “We remain prepared to meet directly,” Price told reporters. France on Friday saw signs the talks could now succeed. “The negotiations remain difficult as we need to clarify the question of guarantees (on lifting sanctions) and the framework of control over the Iranian nuclear programme,” said a French presidential official who asked not to be named. “Nevertheless there are some indications that the negotiations could succeed,” added the official, saying President Emmanuel Macron may hold telephone talks with his Iranian counterpart Ebrahim Raisi in the coming days.
Deal, no deal
Iran also spoke early this week of progress at the talks, adding Washington needed to take political decisions to move forward. Washington has remained cautious with Brett McGurk, the top White House official on the Middle East, warning Thursday the negotiations could still “collapse very soon”.“We’re in the ballpark of a possible deal but, again, I’m not going to put odds on this,” McGurk said. “There’s a chance for a deal and there’s also a pretty good chance there’s not going to be a deal — and I will tell you we are prepared for either scenario.”

Biden to Send Troops to Eastern Europe amid Ukraine Diplomacy Push
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
U.S. President Joe Biden is seeking to maintain pressure on Russian leader Vladimir Putin over Ukraine, announcing a small troop deployment to eastern Europe even as top Pentagon officials backed a renewed push for diplomacy. As President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Western leaders to avoid stirring "panic" over the massive Russian troop buildup on his country's borders, Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed on the need for de-escalation. Neither Putin nor his European and American counterparts had until now appeared ready to give ground in the weeks-long crisis, the worst in decades between Russia and the West. But according to a Macron aide, Putin told the French leader in a call lasting more than an hour that he had "no offensive plans."In Washington, Biden nevertheless said he would soon send a small number of US troops to bolster the NATO presence in eastern Europe as tensions remain heightened. The United States already has tens of thousands of troops stationed across mostly Western Europe. At the Pentagon, top officials urged a focus on diplomacy while saying that Russia now had enough troops and equipment in place to threaten the whole of Ukraine. Any such conflict, warned the top US general, Joint Chiefs Chairman Mark Milley, would be "horrific" for both sides. "If that was unleashed on Ukraine, it would be significant, very significant, and it would result in a significant amount of casualties," Milley said. But speaking alongside Milley, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said war could still be avoided. "Conflict is not inevitable. There is still time and space for diplomacy," said Austin. "Mr Putin can do the right thing as well," said Austin. "There is no reason that this situation has to devolve into conflict."During his talks with Macron, Putin "expressed no offensive plans and said he wanted to continue the talks with France and our allies," the aide to the French president said. Their conversation "enabled us to agree on the need for a de-escalation," the aide told journalists. Putin "said very clearly that he did not want confrontation."
Complex threat
Since October, Russia has amassed more than 100,000 combat troops and equipment, as well as support forces, along its frontier with Ukraine and more recently in Belarus, which borders Ukraine on the north. Western officials say Russia has also mustered more air and sea assets in the region, creating a complex threat like none seen since the Cold War. Moscow has demanded wide-ranging security guarantees, including that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO. Those demands have been the subject of intensive negotiations, with the West warning of far-reaching consequences if diplomacy fails and Russia attacks. "We don't need this panic," Zelensky told a news conference with foreign media, insisting he wanted to avoid hurting his country's already battered economy. "There are signals even from respected leaders of states, they just say that tomorrow there will be war. This is panic -- how much does it cost for our state?" he asked. Later this week, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to speak with Putin and add to the chorus of Western leaders urging him to back down. Johnson "will reiterate the need for Russia to step back and engage diplomatically," a Downing Street spokeswoman said, without specifying which day this will take place.
Russia's concerns not addressed
To Macron, Putin made clear that the written responses from the West to his demands this week had fallen short of Russia's expectations, the Kremlin said. "The U.S. and NATO responses did not take into account Russia's fundamental concerns including preventing NATO's expansion," Putin said, according to the Kremlin's readout of the call. He added that the West had ignored the "key question," that no country should strengthen its security at the expense of others, adding Russia would "carefully study" the responses, "after which it will decide on further actions."Russia has also demanded a pullback of NATO forces deployed to eastern European and ex-Soviet countries that joined the alliance after the Cold War. In a sign of continued tensions, Russia announced Friday evening it had added several EU officials to a list of people banned from entering the country, saying they were responsible for "anti-Russian policies."
Threat to key pipeline
The Putin-Macron phone call followed talks in Paris this week between Russia and Ukraine, with France and Germany alongside, which produced a joint statement committing to preserving a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Moscow separatists. They also agreed to hold new talks in Berlin in February.  "Taking into account the results of the meeting" in Paris, the Kremlin said, "the mood for further work of Russia and France in this format was confirmed." In tandem with the diplomacy, the West has upped its threats of a tough response to an invasion. Washington and Berlin have warned that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, designed to double supplies of Russian natural gas to Germany, was at stake. Milley said Russia itself would be hurt by war. "If Russia chooses to invade Ukraine, it will not be cost-free, in terms of casualties or other significant effects," he said.

France and Germany send envoys to help ease Ukraine-Russia border tensions
Foreign ministers hope four-way talks with Moscow and Kiev will lead to solution
Tim Stickings/The National/29 January ,2022
France and Germany will send their foreign ministers to Ukraine next month for four-way talks with Russia and Ukraine to calm tensions in Eastern Europe. Jean-Yves Le Drian and Annalena Baerbock will make the trip on February 7 and 8, with Paris and Berlin seeking a diplomatic solution as military forces build up on the Ukraine-Russia border. Mr Le Drian said on Saturday that France was continuing its “mobilisation to de-escalate tension” after he spoke to Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba. Mr Le Drian said this would include talks in the Normandy format, a term for four-power mediation between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany. Representatives of those four countries met in Paris last week for the first time since 2019, raising hopes in Paris that dialogue was making progress. France, where a presidential election is looming, and Germany have both spoken of the need for dialogue to ease tensions. “We are obviously convinced that it's through dialogue, through political and diplomatic solutions, that we must solve this conflict,” French Defence Minister Florence Parly said.Russia indicated a preference for talks with the US on Friday after describing America’s written security proposals as preferable to those submitted by Nato. But European diplomats have been keen to pull their weight and prevent the former Cold War superpowers, the US and Russia, from deciding their fate alone. Tensions were raised further when Russia imposed travel bans on EU officials, in a move condemned by Brussels as lacking legal justification. “With it, Russia continues to fuel a climate of tensions in Europe instead of contributing to de-escalation,” European Commission spokesman Peter Stano said. The French and German ministers will travel in the week after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to go to Eastern Europe to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
European powers have threatened Russia with sanctions if it attacks Ukraine, but rejected Moscow’s demands to stop Nato expansion on its borders. Russia expressed frustration on this point on Friday, with Mr Putin telling French President Emmanuel Macron that the Kremlin’s concerns were being ignored. Nato said that if Russia wanted fewer troops on its borders, its military manoeuvres were achieving the opposite. Mr Kuleba said he was looking to European neighbours for ways to mitigate security risks to Ukraine, as fears that Russia will invade its ex-Soviet neighbour continue. Moscow denies intending to do this, but has stationed more than 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine and was accused of a cyber attack on Ukrainian government ministries this month. France and Ukraine agreed that it was “important to stay vigilant and firm” and work on diplomatic solutions, Mr Kuleba said. Nato said it did not expect to send troops to Ukraine in the event of war, but is ready to bolster the defences of other Eastern European countries. F-16 fighter jets from Belgium and Poland, two members of the alliance, flew over the Baltic nations as part of what Nato calls an air policing mission. Denmark is sending F-16s to Lithuania, in what the latter country’s President Gitanas Nauseda said was a “splendid example of allied unity and solidarity”.The Kremlin, in turn, is positioning military vehicles on the territory of its ally, Belarus, which like Russia is under EU sanctions. Some Russian units and vehicles have mobilised to areas near Belarus's southern border with Ukraine, which is about 75 kilometres from Kiev. Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian president, said joint drills would take place next month but that Minsk had no interest in provoking a war. He said on Friday that the only reasons Belarus would go to war is if the country itself, or Russia, were directly attacked. "We will stand up to defend our land,” he said, but added that “there will be no winners in this war”.

Clashes near Syria prison hit by ISIS: Monitor
AFP, Hasakeh/29 January ,2022
Clashes broke out Saturday between Kurdish forces and ISIS fighters near a Syrian prison where dozens of extremists are still holed up, a war monitor said. An ISIS assault on the sprawling Ghwayran prison complex near the northeastern Syrian city of Hasakeh on January 20 sparked days of heavy fighting that has left some 260 people dead. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced they had recaptured the prison on Wednesday, but that mop-up operations continued. On Saturday, there were “clashes in the vicinity of the prison between the Syrian Democratic Forces and Kurdish security forces on the one hand, and members of ISIS who are hiding in the area,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The war monitor, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria, said that four ISIS fighters are holding a local official and three civilians hostage in a residential building near the prison. The SDF said Wednesday some 3,500 ISIS members had surrendered, but that holdout ISIS fighters had barricaded themselves inside the prison facility. The ISIS gunmen are in “cellars that are difficult to target with air strikes or infiltrate” the Observatory said. SDF officials estimate that between 60 and 90 IS fighters were still in the basement and the ground floor above it. An AFP correspondent reported that US troops and Kurdish-led forces have surrounded the building and deployed snipers on nearby rooftops, reporting there was intermittent shooting. Kurdish forces have repeatedly called for ISIS gunmen to surrender. “Our forces have not used force with them so far,” Farhad Shami, who heads the SDF’s media office, said Saturday.
Kurdish-led forces have banned journalists from accessing the Ghwayran neighborhood or approaching the prison since the start of the attack. The fighting has killed more than 260 people, including around 180 extremists, 73 Kurdish-led fighters and seven civilians, the Observatory said, adding that the death toll is likely to increase. The violence forced 45,000 people to flee Hasakeh, the United Nations said. Many took refuge in their relatives’ homes, while hundreds others have been sleeping in the city’s mosques and wedding halls.

UK's Johnson to Urge Putin to 'Step Back' to Avoid Bloodshed
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, urging him to step back from escalating tensions over Ukraine, Downing Street said Friday. Johnson "will reiterate the need for Russia to step back and engage diplomatically when he speaks to President Putin this week," a Downing Street spokeswoman said, without specifying which day this will take place. The British prime minister is "determined to accelerate diplomatic efforts and ramp up deterrence to avoid bloodshed in Europe", Downing Street said. Johnson is to visit the region in the coming days. Relations between Russia and the West are at their lowest point since the Cold War after Moscow deployed tens of thousands of troops on the border of Ukraine. The UK's foreign ministry is expected to announce toughening its sanctions regime on Russia in parliament on Monday, to target strategic and financial interests. This comes as a senior Conservative lawmaker warned Friday that dirty Russian money flooding into London threatens national security. "The money hidden in accounts and properties is used to undermine the security of the UK and the British people," Tom Tugendhat, who chairs parliament's influential Foreign Affairs Select Committee, wrote in a newspaper. Johnson warned this week that Russia faces Western sanctions "heavier than anything" seen before if it invades Ukraine. The prime minister said that Moscow risked sparking a prolonged conflict that would be a "new Chechnya". Johnson took part in crisis talks with US President Joe Biden and other European leaders on Monday. The United Nations Security Council, which includes the UK, will hold a public meeting on the Ukraine crisis on Monday.

Russia’s Risky Options beyond Full Ukraine Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be preparing to launch an invasion of Ukraine, with more than 100,000 troops positioned around the country. Certainly, the US believes that's the case and President Joe Biden has warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that an attack could come in February. But Russia denies it's preparing to invade and Putin's intentions remain a mystery. Russia, which is seeking a pledge that NATO won't expand to include Ukraine, has options it could pursue short of a full-blown invasion, and other ways to lash out at the US and its allies. All of them carry varying degrees of risk, to Russia and the world.
A look at some of them: Something short of a full-scale invasion
In 2014, Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. That year it also started arming rebels in the eastern region known as the Donbas, starting a low-boiling conflict that has killed more than 14,000 people. Many Russia watchers speculate that the recent buildup of Russian troops and naval forces is the next chapter in a larger effort to chip away at Ukraine, perhaps taking advantage as the US and its allies in Europe are distracted by COVID-19 and other issues. Possible scenarios include providing additional support to the Russia-backed rebels or launching a limited invasion, just enough to destabilize Zelenskyy and usher in a pro-Kremlin leader.
Stopping short of a full-scale invasion would give Russia more time to get more forces in place and test the commitment of the US and its allies to the punishing sanctions promised by Biden, says retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army forces in Europe. “He’s going to continue doing what he’s doing right now, continuing to apply maximum pressure on Ukraine and to try to destabilize the government to alarm people,” Hodges said. “There’s a lot of capability in place to do more, should the opportunity present itself.”That might still end up triggering sanctions that could damage the Russian economy and hurt Putin at home. There’s also the risk that a limited action isn’t enough to achieve the Russian president’s goal of undermining European security by rolling back, or at least halting, NATO expansion, says Dmitry Gorenburg, an analyst with CNA, a research organization in Arlington, Virginia. “I don’t think it gets him what he wants,” he said. “It didn’t get them that before. So why now?”
Economic warfare
Russia is a major player in global energy, the third-largest oil producer after the US and Saudi Arabia, and the source of about 40% of the natural gas used in Europe. It is also a major exporter of wheat, particularly to developing nations. Any move to cut the flow of energy could be painful to Europe in winter with gas and oil prices already high. Similarly, rising food prices are a problem around the world. Putin has some economic leverage, but there's no indication he would use it and it could end up hurting Russia in the long run, says Edward Fishman, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. Any move by Russia to cut off gas shipments would push European nations to find alternative sources for the future. “It’s a weapon you can only use once,” he said. “You do that once and you lose that leverage forever.” The Biden administration is already working with Qatar and other suppliers to replace Russian gas if needed.
Cyberattacks
There's no doubt Russia has the capability to conduct significant cyberattacks in Ukraine and around the world, and would almost certainly do so again as part of any operation against its neighbor. The Department of Homeland Security warned law enforcement agencies on Jan. 23 that Russia would consider initiating a cyberattack on the US, including possible actions against critical infrastructure, if it perceived the response to an invasion of Ukraine "threatened its long-term national security.”Russia is the suspected culprit in a 2015 hack against the Ukraine power grid. Hackers this month temporarily shut down government websites in Ukraine, underscoring how cybersecurity remains a pivotal concern in the standoff with Russia. “Whatever the size and scale and nature of their ground and air attacks, cyber will be a big part of anything they do,” warns Hodges. The risk to the world is that hostile activity against Ukraine could spread, as the cyberattack known as notPetya did to devastating effect in 2017. The downside to Russia is the US and other nations have the power to retaliate, as Biden warned Putin in June. "He knows there are consequences,” Biden said.
The China factor
China isn’t a direct player in the standoff over Ukraine, but it plays a role. Observers have warned that Moscow could respond to Washington’s rejection of its security demands by bolstering military ties with China. Russia and China have held a series of joint war games, including naval drills and patrols by long-range bombers over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. US officials have said they don’t think Russia would launch an invasion as President Xi Jinping presides over the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing. “The Chinese are not going to be pleased if their Olympics are disrupted by war,” Gorenburg said. Putin plans to travel to Beijing to attend the opening of the games, as US and European leaders sit it out to protest human rights abuses. One theory among Russia watchers is that China is intently following the US and European response over Ukraine to gauge what might happen if it were to move against Taiwan. Hodges sees that as a risk. “If we, with our combined diplomatic and economic power plus military power, cannot stop the president of the Russian Federation from doing something that is so obviously illegal and wrong and aggressive then I don’t think President Xi is going to be too impressed with anything that we say about Taiwan or the South China Sea.”
A Russian buildup in Latin America
Senior Russian officials have warned that Moscow could deploy troops or military assets to Cuba and Venezuela. The threats are vague, though Russia does have close ties to both countries as well as Nicaragua. US national security adviser Jake Sullivan dismissed the idea, and experts in the region and around the world view it as a strategy that probably wouldn't accomplish much, other than to divert Russian forces needed elsewhere, and thus is unlikely to happen. A more likely scenario is that Russia steps up its already extensive propaganda and misinformation efforts to sharpen divisions in Latin America and elsewhere, including the United States.
A diplomatic solution
It's not a foregone conclusion that the standoff ends in an invasion. While the Biden administration said it would not concede to Russia’s security demands, there still seems to be some room for diplomacy. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Thursday that the US response “gives hope for the start of a serious conversation on secondary questions.”France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia have agreed to sit down for talks in two weeks, an effort aimed at reviving a 2015 agreement to ease the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Some fear this complicates efforts by the US and NATO to show a united front against Russia.
A stand-down may be good for the world but could come at a cost for Putin, Russian journalist Yulia Latynina warned in a New York Times essay on Friday. She said the Russian president may have used his troop buildup as a bluff, hoping to compel the US and Europe to relinquish any intention of closer ties to Ukraine. “Instead of trapping the United States, Mr. Putin has trapped himself,” she wrote. “Caught between armed conflict and a humiliating retreat, he is now seeing his room for maneuver dwindling to nothing.”

Erdogan threatens Turkish media with new censorship measures
AP/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
President Tayyip Erdogan on Saturday threatened Turkish media with reprisals if they disseminated content that in his view damaged the country’s core values, in a move that might be a prelude to further censorship in the sector. In a notice published in the Official Gazette, he said measures were needed to protect Turkey’s “national culture” and prevent its children’s development “from being adversely affected as a result of exposure to harmful content on all written, verbal and visual media.” Erdogan did not specify what such content was, but said legal action would be taken against “overt or covert activities through the media aimed at undermining our national and moral values, and disrupting our family and social structure.”Erdogan has been in power for nearly 20 years and has often criticised media content that he sees as out of step with the Islamist values espoused by his AK Party. Turkey has in recent years also moved to increase media restrictions, with around 90% of major media now owned by the state or close to the government. Its western allies and critics have said Erdogan has been using a 2016 failed coup attempt to muzzle dissent and erode social rights and tolerance. The government has denied this, claiming the measures are necessary due to the gravity of the threats Turkey faces and that freedom of religious expression has been restored in a once strongly secular republic. The RTUK radio and television watchdog has sweeping oversight over all online content, which it also has the power to remove. It has fined TV stations over footage it says violates “Turkish values,” such as music videos it has labelled “erotic”, LGBTQ references or content it deems to “have insulted” the president. Tens of thousands have been prosecuted under the latter law including Sedef Kabas, a well-known journalist jailed last week pending trial after posting a proverb about Erdogan’s palace on her Twitter account and repeating it on opposition television channel.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed receives Ethiopia's prime minister in Abu Dhabi
Abiy Ahmed was accorded an official reception on his arrival
The National/Saturday, 29 January, 2022
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, welcomed Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia, to Abu Dhabi on an official visit to the UAE on Saturday. Mr Abiy was accorded an official reception on his arrival, where the national anthems of the UAE and Ethiopia were played, followed by a 21-gun salute, state news agency Wam reported. Sheikh Saif bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Presidential Affairs, and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Co-operation, were also among the welcoming party. Mr Abiy was accompanied by several members of Ethiopia's Cabinet, including the ministers for foreign affairs and defence.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 29-30/2022
Question: "What happens after death?"
GotQuestions.org?/January 29/2022
Answer: Within the Christian faith, there is a significant amount of confusion regarding what happens after death. Some hold that after death, everyone “sleeps” until the final judgment, after which everyone will be sent to heaven or hell. Others believe that at the moment of death, people are instantly judged and sent to their eternal destinations. Still others claim that when people die, their souls/spirits are sent to a “temporary” heaven or hell, to await the final resurrection, the final judgment, and then the finality of their eternal destination. So, what exactly does the Bible say happens after death?
First, for the believer in Jesus Christ, the Bible tells us that after death believers’ souls/spirits are taken to heaven, because their sins are forgiven by having received Christ as Savior (John 3:16, 18, 36). For believers, death is to be “away from the body and at home with the Lord” (2 Corinthians 5:6-8; Philippians 1:23). However, passages such as 1 Corinthians 15:50-54 and 1 Thessalonians 4:13-17 describe believers being resurrected and given glorified bodies. If believers go to be with Christ immediately after death, what is the purpose of this resurrection? It seems that while the souls/spirits of believers go to be with Christ immediately after death, the physical body remains in the grave “sleeping.” At the resurrection of believers, the physical body is resurrected, glorified, and then reunited with the soul/spirit. This reunited and glorified body-soul-spirit will be the possession of believers for eternity in the new heavens and new earth (Revelation 21-22).
Second, for those who do not receive Jesus Christ as Savior, death means everlasting punishment. However, similar to the destiny of believers, unbelievers also seem to be sent immediately to a temporary holding place, to await their final resurrection, judgment, and eternal destiny. Luke 16:22-23 describes a rich man being tormented immediately after death. Revelation 20:11-15 describes all the unbelieving dead being resurrected, judged at the great white throne, and then being cast into the lake of fire. Unbelievers, then, are not sent to hell (the lake of fire) immediately after death, but rather are in a temporary realm of judgment and condemnation. However, even though unbelievers are not instantly sent to the lake of fire, their immediate fate after death is not a pleasant one. The rich man cried out, “I am in agony in this fire” (Luke 16:24).
Therefore, after death, a person resides in a “temporary” heaven or hell. After this temporary realm, at the final resurrection, a person’s eternal destiny will not change. The precise “location” of that eternal destiny is what changes. Believers will ultimately be granted entrance into the new heavens and new earth (Revelation 21:1). Unbelievers will ultimately be sent to the lake of fire (Revelation 20:11-15). These are the final, eternal destinations of all people—based entirely on whether or not they had trusted Jesus Christ alone for salvation (Matthew 25:46; John 3:36).

Istanbul's Mayor: Erdoğan's Worst Nightmare
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 29/2022
"If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey." — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
It appears that [Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu's] "terrorists" are actually people who are being probed for links with illegal organizations but who have not been prosecuted -- let alone being found guilty by courts.
This kind of intimidation, further victimizing Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu in the eyes of the voters, will simply boost his popularity -- and at a time when Erdoğan's ratings are plummeting.
Erdoğan, it seems, did not want opposition mayors to gain further popularity by helping the poor.
It would be premature to conclude that there will be a historic shift in Turkish politics in 2023. All the same, the reports are real, and so are Erdoğan's fears, panic and increasingly reckless governance.
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been running a campaign of intimidation and hatred against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu (pictured), which has paradoxically boosted him as a perfect contender against President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for the next presidential elections in 2023. According to polls, if the two go head to head, İmamoğlu would beat Erdoğan by 48.7% to 36.6%. (Photo by Ozan Kose/AFP via Getty Images)
Turkey's secular state establishment was shocked when a young militant Islamist won the mayoral elections in Turkey's biggest city, Istanbul, in 1994. "Who wins Istanbul wins Turkey," Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, at that time Istanbul's mayor, would often say. History would prove him right.
Erdoğan's tenure as Istanbul's mayor ended when in 1997 when he recited a pro-Islamist poem. "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets, and the faithful our soldiers" earned him a 10-month prison term for "inciting religious hatred," four of which he served. In 2002, Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) swept to victory in national elections.
Erdoğan has since remained unchallenged, first as Turkey's prime minister and, since 2014, as president. Observers agree that Erdoğan's skilfully-crafted image-making as the "victim of an authoritarian, secular regime" helped him to win one election after another. "People saw him as the guy from the other side of the tracks who the system had unjustly punished," Soner Çağaptay, author of Erdoğan's Empire, wrote.
Ironically, the man who has become Erdoğan's worst nightmare is following a similar path. In March 2019, as the race for municipal elections was barrelling ahead, Islamist parties had controlled Istanbul -- along with Turkey's capital, Ankara -- since 1994. Erdoğan's candidate for Istanbul was a big shot: former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım. The opposition, however -- including social democrats, liberals, some nationalists and Kurds -- united behind Ekrem İmamoğlu, then a little-known district mayor in Istanbul.
During the run-up to the election, Erdoğan's party officials and trolls launched a smear campaign against İmamoğlu. One AKP deputy chair spoke of "many question marks" surrounding İmamoğlu's ethno-religious identity, demanding İmamoğlu prove "that your spirit, heart and mind is with the Turkish nation." A propaganda machinery started to allege that İmamoğlu was a crypto-Greek, and that his supporters were Greeks disguised as Muslims. He was also accused for having links to Kurdish terrorists.
The vote count, on March 31, 2019, proved to be a political fiasco for Erdoğan and his seemingly invincible AKP: İmamoğlu won by a narrow margin of 13,000 votes (in a city of 18 million people). The AKP-controlled Supreme Election Board ruled for an election rerun on June 23. This time, İmamoğlu won by a margin of 800,000 votes, shocking Erdoğan and his gigantic party establishment.
Just two years earlier, Erdoğan had said, "If we lose Istanbul, we lose Turkey."
Since the restoration of Turkish democracy in 1983, which followed a military coup in 1980, no candidate in Istanbul's mayoral elections had a managed to win with such a majority: İmamoğlu won 54% of the votes, compared to 45% for the AKP candidate -- and compared to 25% for Erdoğan in the 1994 election.The election result triggered a campaign of intimidation and hatred against İmamoğlu which, paradoxically, has boosted him as a perfect contender against Erdoğan for the next presidential elections in 2023.
During the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, Erdoğan launched a national donation campaign, through which wealthier Turks, individuals or businesses, could help poorer Turks. In other words, the Ankara government would collect money from the people to help the people. Unsurprisingly, the campaign collected an embarrassing $245 million in a country of 83 million people -- and most of that came from government-controlled companies.
Parallel to Erdoğan's campaign, İmamoğlu and Ankara's Mayor Mansur Yavaş launched local campaigns to collect donations to help the poorest in Turkey's two biggest cities. But there was a problem. The government said city councils, according to law, must first obtain permission from the Interior Ministry to launch fundraising initiatives. İmamoğlu and Yavaş argued that other government-controlled municipalities were also raising donations to help workers and small business owners who had lost their incomes due to the coronavirus. Yes, the government said, but they had obtained permission whereas Istanbul and Ankara had not. Erdoğan, it seems, did not want opposition mayors to gain further popularity by helping the poor.
In 2020, Vakıfbank, a state-owned lender, froze the Istanbul municipality's account after coronavirus donations had reached $130 million. The Interior Ministry launched criminal investigations against the two mayors on charges of illegal fundraising. "Pathetic," was all İmamoğlu said. In further shows of ire, the central government in Ankara would also suspend Istanbul municipality's campaign to sell the poorest Turks cheap bread. In one bizarre episode last year, the Interior Ministry launched an investigation into İmamoğlu for "disrespecting Sultan Mehmet II's tomb" -- referring to the Ottoman sultan who conquered Istanbul in 1453. A probe was opened and the mayor of Istanbul was summoned to make a statement. What was the offense? It seems İmamoğlu, in a 2020 visit, had walked in the tomb of Sultan Mehmet II with his hands folded behind his own back! Evidence? A photo showing İmamoğlu in front of the tomb with his hands folded behind himself. "In my opinion," Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu said, "This [behavior] is an offense.""I feel so much shame," İmamoğlu replied, "on the minister's behalf."
Nevertheless, the Interior Minister is once again on the run to sideline İmamoğlu. On December 27, the ministry launched an investigation into hundreds of staff at the Istanbul municipality, accused of links to terrorist groups.
The probe covers 455 people working at the municipality and municipality-owned companies with alleged connections to Kurdish militants, along with more than 100 allegedly linked to banned leftist and other illegal groups.
The municipality protests that none of its employees has a criminal record, based on data provided by the Justice Ministry. Yes, the Interior Ministry admits, that is true. But, it maintains, the "terrorists" are individuals who are being investigated. Turkey has become more ridiculous than a caricature: the Interior Minister does not know that every suspect is innocent until proven guilty? It appears that the minister's "terrorists" are actually people who are being probed for links with illegal organizations but who have not been prosecuted -- let alone being found guilty by courts.
This kind of intimidation, further victimizing İmamoğlu in the eyes of the voters, will simply boost his popularity -- and a time when Erdoğan's ratings are plummeting.
Surveys by Metropoll Research show Erdoğan's approval rating, at 38.6%, is its lowest since 2015. His popularity, they show, trails that of three potential presidential election rivals. A poll by Sosyo Politik Field Research Center put support for Erdoğan's AKP at 27%, against 37% who said they voted for the party in the last parliamentary election in 2018. The AKP's nationalist ally in parliament, the MHP, was at 6.3%, down from 7.3% who said they voted for the party in 2018.
Metropoll's most recent research found that the mayors of İstanbul and Ankara have a comfortable lead over Erdoğan for the presidential election. If two candidates were to go head to head in the election, the survey showed, İmamoğlu would beat Erdoğan by 48.7% to 36.6%.
It would be premature to conclude that there will be a historic shift in Turkish politics in 2023. All the same, the reports are real, and so are Erdoğan's fears, panic and increasingly reckless governance.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

What role for political parties in Jordan?
Shakir Rafayah/The Arab Weekly/January 29/2022
As soon as the House of Representatives began discussing the parties’ law, there were attempts to set up new parties in Jordan, as if this were a small mirror of the country’s future political life, even though recent constitutional amendments actually did away with any real reform.
It seems as if Jordan is new to political parties and is still groping for the path of partisan activity, which will represent, in theory the core of the promised political participation, although the credibility and ability of the plans to make a difference are debatable.
In the middle of the last century, there was an active party political life in Jordan, as a reflection of the ideological tide that was sweeping the region at the time. Pan-Arabist and socialist parties, including Baathists, Nasserites and Communists, were established. Along with them there was also the Muslim Brotherhood. However, over the past decades, the parties’ influence on the political scene has diminished due to security restrictions, martial law and arrests, until party affiliation became a charge that could unsettle one’ professional career and academic pursuits.
The party political life regained some of its vitality in the late eighties. But it all soon retreated under security pressure, poor financing and modest party representation in parliament. The rhetoric of the parties became so unconvincing that large segments of Jordanians abandoned them.
In 2022, there are now less than 40,000 members of 50 different parties and negligible party representation in parliament. This scattered and weak picture is in fact a mirror of the situation of the political parties, as they prepare to go through the experience of forming governments as the main pillar of political reform. The ruling establishment decided to revive political party activity. It also decided that the formation of governments from the parliamentary parties would begin after at least ten years. It said programme-based parties are preferable to ideological parties. Moreover, it imposed more restrictions on the creation of parties and set quotas for youth and women.
This recipe does not make sense as a basis for effective party political life. Rather, it is a recipe that is more akin to the activity of cooperative societies and tribal and regional leagues, which Jordanians prefer to political parties.
Party politics cannot be renewed by decisions or legislative amendments that are isolated from the general political context and the prevailing culture, unless the goal is to reduce the entire reform project to the creation of political parties that convince no one and have nothing to add to the governance and management of the country. Do people believe the ruling establishment, when it encourages them to seek membership of political parties while imposing strict restrictions on freedom of expression and conducts “electronic patrols” to prosecute them for what they say and write on the internet and social media?
How can we have a partisan life while we do not enjoy public liberties at the individual and social level which are suitable for practicing politics, while security institutions chase activists and protesters?
The government that will be led by parties in the coming years will have fewer powers than the current governments formed by the king, according to the constitutional amendments approved by parliament and the expected amendments to the parties and election laws.
The constitutional amendments took away from the government the original powers that were linked to its general mandate over the country. The prime minister has become a member of the National Security Council, who is invited by the king to the council’s meetings which he attends like other members.
The ruling establishment does not find it embarrassing to say that the council’s role will ensure that political parties have no influence on security affairs and foreign policy issues, even though governments would be based on parties in the first place!
The government will not have a role in selecting a group of senior official positions such as the Director of Public Security, the Grand Mufti and the Chief Justice. And all of these are added to the king’s sole prerogatives without the government making any recommendation.
Access to power lies at the heart of the creed and goal of any political party on the face of the earth, whether it is formed in an arbitrary manner or as a natural result of exercising political action in an adequate public atmosphere and an appropriate legislative environment.
But the power that will be available to party-based governments in the future according to the constitution will be nothing more than marginal competance that will not allow any real changes and will not make an impact on political participation.

How the world is failing the Afghan test
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 30, 2022
If 2021 was marked by the return of the US to global institutions and the restoration of confidence in international action, developments this year are shaping up to be the first real test for multilateralism.
Before tensions ratcheted up to their current levels in eastern Europe, delivering a much-needed justification for the continued existence of an aging NATO, Afghanistan was the major challenge for an international community trying to reset itself after four years of American absenteeism and outright antagonism to established global norms. It still is.
So far, collective failures on how to manage interests, and satisfy the growing humanitarian needs of millions of Afghans, have morphed into a puzzling deadlock.
Despite the quixotic mix of actors from the US, Europe, Iran, Pakistan, India, Russia and China, the Afghanistan issue has maintained unprecedented levels of cohesion and receptive diplomacy. All those involved have, in their own distinct ways, outlined specific requirements such as the establishment of an inclusive government, cutting ties with Al-Qaeda, and curbing illicit flows before the subject of the Taliban’s recognition can be broached.
So all core elements of managing the unfolding crises in Afghanistan are already present, but the global community’s responses have so far been costly and rudderless, which could be harmful over the long term.
The most prevalent driving factor for crisis responses in Afghanistan has not been to reduce human suffering, or build on a rare consensus between disparate actors or interests. What is driving inaction in Afghanistan is a reluctance to be seen as engaging with the Taliban and thus tacitly endorsing their state capture, escalating human rights abuses, and coddling of foreign fighters.
Besides, opening back channels and failing to pressure the isolated group has, in the past, encouraged the Taliban’s rejection of demands from the other side of the table in the Doha dialogues. As a result, a pervasive wariness now clouds any potential for sustained engagement, since no one wants to be saddled with the onerous task of managing a perennially fragile relationship with a temperamental Taliban.
If the Afghanistan situation is a test, then the world is seriously failing at rising to the challenge, despite the intersection of interests and readily available crisis response tools.
Failing to make inroads with the group is not without its costs. On paper, asset freezes, sanctions, and cutting off aid appear sufficient inducements to incentivize any rogue actor’s compliance in some core areas of interest. In reality, however, the burden of dried-up funding, isolation, and general intransigence among the most influential actors is borne by average Afghans, most of whom are not subscribers to the Taliban's worldview.
At present, more than 20 million Afghans need aid, and without substantial humanitarian interventions by summer this year it is estimated Afghanistan will reach universal poverty — when over 98 percent of households are at or below the poverty line. Rising poverty and worsening human security are already major drivers of forced migration across the planet, especially in Afghanistan, where critical safety nets and support systems are either non-existent or severely limited.
Factoring in the impact of COVID-19, a harsh winter, and the still unresolved fallout from the estimated 3 million displaced by conflict inside Afghanistan, a tragic paradox emerges. In the concerted efforts to shift the Taliban’s thinking on a number of areas, the international community is now fueling the very same woes it is seeking to prevent by withholding aid. In addition, the spillover effects are exponentially worsened the longer it takes to fashion some form of interim arrangement to at least get aid to where it is needed most, while still bypassing the politically radioactive notion of acknowledging the Taliban’s rule.
This is not unique to Afghanistan. Other trouble spots in the Middle East and North Africa have also devolved into similar stalemates. In Lebanon, for instance, a self-made crisis has resulted in political malaise, currency collapse, hyperinflation, record poverty levels, and a seemingly endless list of woes that the ruling elites have consistently failed to acknowledge, let alone attempted to resolve.
Nonetheless, in the wake of the Beirut port blast in August 2020, the international community stepped up, raising as much as $2.58 billion for recovery and reconstruction. To date, however, less than $35 million of those funds has been disbursed, falling far short of a $426 million spending goal on Lebanon’s recovery needs one year after the blast. The World Bank blames the delays on a beleaguered interim government that only just managed to hold its first budget meeting in several months. However, strict conditions designed to precipitate much-needed reforms mean that even if the economic situation in Lebanon remains perilous, most foreign aid and donations will not be released — ultimately worsening the plight of many Lebanese.
Libya and Syria also share aspects of this bizarre phenomenon, in which intervention has proved effective at producing desired outcomes, but aid comes with conditions and restrictions that unfairly burden average citizens or vulnerable migrants.
If the Afghanistan situation is a test, then the world is seriously failing at rising to the challenge, despite the intersection of interests and readily available crisis response tools. It does not bode well for the future if the international community cannot capitalize on rare alignments when all actors agree on a core set of outcomes to safeguard their interests. At such a critical juncture in global geopolitics, rudderless diplomacy disguised as “smart” engagement risks renewed conflict and prolonged instability, and only exacerbates humanitarian challenges.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell

In the game of political chess Russia positions itself well against the West
Rami Rayess/Al Arabiya/January 29/2022
In the face-off between Russia and the West over rising tensions that a potential invasion of Ukraine is imminent, the former appears more relaxed about the unfolding situation.
The US has told Putin that severe repercussions await him if Russia’s forces start a war. NATO members are united in their ire of Moscow, witnessing the country amass a substantial military presence on the Ukrainian border.
Only, the western countries aren’t clear about what these repercussions are entirely, and once tied down how to implement them.
Closing the Nord Stream pipeline that pumps Russian gas to Germany is one proposal, and Berlin has said it will happen if Moscow’s forces invade Ukraine. In terms of helping militarily, Germany has limited itself to offering Ukraine helmets.
Biden is adamant that sanctions will be enforced on Putin, limiting Russia’s access to financial markets. Only, there is a growing realization of the complications this involves considering the amount of Russian money from the country’s oligarchs embedded in London.
The British government isn’t really in a position to clamp down on this, introduce sanctions, or force Russian nationals to divest assets and leave the country. Given the billions of dollars at stake, London is unlikely to want to anyway.
Russia has always been considered an aggressor by the West and is ready to invade countries willingly expand its frontiers.
Indeed, it has controlled much of Eastern Europe since the end of the Second World War, but the argument stands that Moscow’s strategy was and remains to maintain a buffer zone with the West.
History is littered with countries invading Russia, and it believes there to be an existential threat from others. With the longest border in the World extending to almost 78,000 kilometers, Moscow might have a point.
Napoleon invaded Russia, and it was a disastrous campaign leading to defeat and a humiliating retreat, with almost 300,000 of his soldiers killed.
Hitler tried, too, ordering close to three million troops to invade, which became the most significant military invasion in history, and possibly one of the greatest defeats with the Germans ground down trying to take hold of vast swathes of the Russian land.
Russia’s stance towards Ukraine is problematic for the West. Kiev is the home of an independent nation and has the right to practice self-defense policies as it sees fit, but so does Russia.
NATO has been steadily pushing eastwards since the collapse of the Soviet Union, leaving Moscow exposed and frustrated. Putin’s nervousness is growing, while watching the installation of missiles in former Soviet Republics and his Western front.
Forget the rhetoric from the Western side for a moment: As Russia’s historical enemies gain ground, is it unreasonable to expect Russia to flex its political and military muscles?
The argument that Ukraine is a sovereign state and can join NATO if it wants is, of course, correct. Kiev can approach the European Union and profit from its economic development. It has the full right to choose its paths of foreign policies and its allies.
But, putting the shoe on the other foot, if Cuba invites Russia to base troops on its territory with the argument that it is fearful of the US, this too is valid.
When this happened during the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s, the United States reaction was not dissimilar to Russia’s today.
For Washington to chastise Russia for its threatening stance with Ukraine is hypocritical.
Another consideration in the mix is international law. If Moscow pushes into Ukraine, the West can legitimately claim that’s Russia’s actions are illegal and enter the fray themselves. But, again, there’s a level of hypocrisy sitting on the West’s side.
Taking into account the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the US and UK, which the United Nations Security Council did not approve, it was thus illegal. It was disastrous and left the country paralyzed.
Then, Israel’s ongoing occupation of Palestinian territories has existed for almost eight decades. Supported by the US, it continues.
Many claims that the last classical occupation remains unresolved, and the bulk of the Security Council resolutions enacted that support Palestine are not.
Jerusalem disapproves of the two-state solution, and illegitimate settlements are spread all over the territories, including areas beyond the 1948 lands, confirmed under international law as part of the potential Palestinian state in any future peace treaty.
This is not to justify Russian policies that are indeed aggressive, but we cannot dispute the double standards.
If Ukraine withdraws from NATO in return for Russia stepping back and removing its troops from the borders, it’s difficult to say whether this is the solution. It might have been several weeks ago, but the posturing on both sides makes it less likely.
Considering all factors, including the West’s unclear military strategy to address the scale of Russia’s invasion, the gas pipeline, oligarchs in London, and Russia’s strong bond with Cuba, it isn’t clear cut what the West can achieve. Moscow isn’t in as weak a position as many are saying.
But then, what do you expect from the World’s chess grandmaster? It’s perhaps not checkmate yet, but Russia appears to have its pieces well positioned.