English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 29/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Burying Jesus in the Garden's Tomb after
Pilate allowed Joseph of Arimathaea, to take the body down from the cross
John 19/38-42: After these things, Joseph of
Arimathaea, being a disciple of Jesus, but secretly for fear of the Jews, asked
of Pilate that he might take away Jesus’ body. Pilate gave him permission. He
came therefore and took away his body. Nicodemus, who at first came to Jesus by
night, also came bringing a mixture of myrrh and aloes, about a hundred Roman
pounds. So they took Jesus’ body, and bound it in linen cloths with the spices,
as the custom of the Jews is to bury. Now in the place where he was crucified
there was a garden. In the garden was a new tomb in which no man had ever yet
been laid. Then, because of the Jews’ Preparation Day (for the tomb was near at
hand), they laid Jesus there.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on January 28-29/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 8116 new Corona cases, 17 deaths
Vatican’s Secretary to visit Lebanon next week
President addresses ministerial affairs, financing ration card
Council of Ministers convenes over draft budget law
Cabinet Holds New Budget Session, to Meet Again Saturday
Lebanon govt says ‘will not be launchpad for activities that violate countries’
Derian meets with Mikati at Grand Serail
Miqati Meets Mufti, Says They Won't Call for Elections Boycott
Mikati meets UN’s Wronecka, EU Ambassador
Lebanese crisis forcing youth out of learning, robbing them of their futures:
UNICEF survey
Rahi welcomes UN’s Wronecka, reiterates condemnation against assault on UNIFIL
UN’s Wronecka visits Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch for the Archdiocese of
Beirut in Lebanon, Elias Audi
Jumblat: No One Can Replace Hariri, 1559 Can't be Implemented
Jumblatt says Iran gains as Arabs abandon Lebanon
USAID Launches Initiative to Increase Lebanese Wine Exports to U.S.
Lebanon’s Bahaa Rafik Al-Hariri says he will continue his father’s journey
Lebanon highlights drug seizures as PM ‘smooths rough edges’ of response to
Kuwaiti initiative/Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 28, 2022
How A New JCPOA Will Turbocharge Lebanon's Destruction
Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI/January 28/2022
Hezbollah’s return to the government is a political trap/ Hanin Ghaddar/Al
Arabiya/Janauary 27/2022
Should the Beirut port blast site be turned into a place of remembrance?
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 28-29/2022
Pope says fake news, disinformation on COVID, is human rights violation
Iran nuclear talks paused, ‘political decisions’ needed
Sullivan Reassures Israel as US Seeks to Conclude Nuclear Deal with Iran
Last week, Blinken warned there was only a brief window to bring talks to save
the nuclear deal to a successful conclusion.
Qatar, Iran Discuss Bilateral Ties, Regional Developments
At Least 3 Rockets Hit Near Baghdad Airport
Israel Says 'Almost Killed' Soleimani in Syria
Russia Says it Won't Start a War as Ukraine Tensions Mount
Putin Tells Macron that West 'Ignored' Russia's Security Concerns
US to Respond 'Decisively' if Russia Invades Ukraine, Biden Tells Zelenskiy
US Refers Ukraine Crisis to UN Security Council
In a major narrative shift, Erdogan marks Holocaust, welcomes 'new chapter' with
Israel
UN Says Syria Prison Attack Shows Need to Deal with IS Detainees
North Korea Confirms Missile Tests as Kim Inspects 'Important' Munitions Factory
Canada condemns North Korea’s ballistic missiles launches
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 28-29/2022
Erdoğan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Turning Eastward/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/January 28, 2022
Russia and Ukraine: The Sword and the Shield/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/January
28/2022
Taxi Driver Valdimir Putin’s Revenge!/Mamdouh al-Muhainy/Asharq Al-Awsat/January
28/2022
Iran is putting down roots in eastern Syria, outcompeting Assad’s regime in
signing up fighters/Sarah Dadouch/The Washington Post/January 28/2022
Erdogan's war on the SDF/Ali Sarraf/The Arab Weekly/January 28/2022
If we want peace, we should prepare for war/Sir John Jenkins/ Arab News/January
28, 2022
on January 28-29/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 8116 new Corona cases, 17 deaths
NNA/January 28/2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Friday the registration of 8116 new infections with the Coronavirus,
which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 900098.
The report added that 17 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
Vatican’s Secretary to visit Lebanon next week
NNA/January 28/2022
The Vatican’s Secretary for Relations with States, Archbishop Paul Richard
Gallagher, will visit Lebanon between January 31 and February 4, to meet with
political and religious leaders, and to express the concerns of Pope Francis and
his standing by the Lebanese people and the Church during this difficult social,
economic and political stage. This visit coincides with the 75th anniversary of
the establishment of diplomatic relations between Lebanon and the Holy See.
During his stay, Archbishop Gallagher will meet with Catholic and Orthodox
officials, patriarchs and bishops, as well as Sunni, Shiite and Druze religious
leaders, and dignitaries from the world of culture and politics. He will also
visit a few places and communities, and will take part in the opening of the
symposium on "John Paul II and Lebanon" organized by the Holy Spirit University
of Kaslik.
President addresses ministerial affairs, financing
ration card
NNA/January 28/2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, followed up on ministerial and
union affairs, and tackled the issue of the financing card that supports a large
segment of needy families. Minister of Social Affairs: The President received
Minister of Social Affairs, Hector Al-Hajjar, who briefed him on the work of the
ministry, especially with regard to the stages that the financing card where
500,000 families had been registered on the “Support” platform, which includes
the financing card and the “Aman” program. Minister Al-Hajjar pointed out
that the registration deadline ends at midnight on January 31, when the
registration stops and the evaluation begins, which lasts for a month, provided
that payment begins on the first of next March for 150,000 families from the
poorest families, in US dollars and for one year. The delegation of the
Syndicate of Optical Professions;
President Aoun met a delegation from the Syndicate of Optical Professions headed
by Nisreen Al-Ashkar. The delegation thanked the President for issuing a law
regulating the visual professions.
In addition, Mrs. Al-Ashkar made the following speech:
“Your Excellency, today, we would like to commend the efforts that you are
making, and the wisdom that you have shown in this delicate stage that the
country is going through.
As the Syndicate of Optical Professions, we are pleased to express our thanks to
your Excellency for all the efforts you have made to approve the law regulating
the visual professions that was issued.
We would also like to ask your Excellency to give your instructions to expedite
the implementation of the decrees implementing the law that was published in the
Official Gazette. We also hope that Your Excellency will also give your
instructions to speed up the issuance of the financial stamp and therefore the
permission to practice the profession, which will remove the harm from a large
number of specialists and graduates and help them find job opportunities in
these difficult circumstances that the country is going through.
Finally, the Syndicate, with all its members, would like to provide all support
to our homeland, Lebanon, and we pray to God to give you patience and
longsuffering to manage the country's affairs to overcome this difficult stage.
May God prolong your life and protect you for your people.”
For his part, President Aoun wished the union success in its work to secure the
rights of workers in the optical professions, promising to work to achieve the
demands mentioned by the Mrs. Achkar in her intervention.—Presidency Press
Office
Council of Ministers convenes over draft budget law
NNA/January 28/2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday chaired a cabinet session at the Grand
Serail to resume discussions over the 2022 state budget draft law. More
discussions will be held on Saturday at 9:00 am. Prior to the session, the Prime
Minister welcomed French Ambassador to Lebanon, Anne Grillo, who left without
making a statement.
Cabinet Holds New Budget Session, to Meet Again Saturday
Naharnet/January 28/2022
Cabinet held a session Friday morning that was dedicated to continuing the
discussion of the draft state budget. The deliberations will be continued in a
session that will be held tomorrow, Saturday, at 9am. MTV reported that the
session will last till 1pm in a bid to approve the state budget. The acting
information minister had announced Thursday that the budget would be approved
today, Friday. “Today’s Cabinet session focused on discussing the numbers,
especially regarding the customs dollar, without managing to reach an
agreement,” al-Jadeed TV reported.
The issue of a treasury loan for power generation was not discussed in the
session, according to MTV. “I don’t want a loan for electricity and hiking the
tariff would be enough to purchase fuel and impose a financial balance,” Energy
Minister Walid Fayyad told the TV network.
Lebanon govt says ‘will not be launchpad for activities
that violate countries’
Reuters/28 January ,2022
The Lebanese government, in a letter to Gulf states, would say that the Lebanon
“will not be a launchpad for activities that violates Arab countries,” sources
familiar with the letter told Reuters on Friday. The Lebanese foreign minister
will deliver the letter in response to a Kuwaiti proposal of confidence-building
measures to end a diplomatic rift with Gulf states on Saturday in an Arab
ministerial meeting in Kuwait. The letter would say that Lebanon respects UN
resolutions to ensure civil peace and national stability of Lebanon and that the
government commits verbally and actually to the disassociation policy, the
sources added.
Derian meets with Mikati at Grand Serail
NNA/January 28/2022
Grand Mufti of the Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, has arrived at the Grand
Serail, where he will be meeting with Prime Minister, Najib Mikati. Derian was
received by the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, Judge Mahmoud
Makkieh, and a group of government guards saluted him.
Miqati Meets Mufti, Says They Won't Call for Elections
Boycott
Naharnet/January 28/2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati held talks Friday at the Grand Serail with Grand
Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan. “Everyone is free as to participation and
nomination for the elections, but we will certainly not call for a boycott,”
Miqati told reporters after the meeting.
“Whoever likes to nominate themselves can do so and the elections will be held
normally. As a premier I have called for holding the elections and I’m
continuing with this call,” the PM added. The remarks come after al-Mustaqbal
Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri announced that neither him nor his movement
would take part in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Mikati meets UN’s Wronecka, EU Ambassador
NNA/January 28/2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday afternoon received at the Grand Serail,
the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka. Premier
Mikati also welcomed at the Serail the European Union's Ambassador to Lebanon,
Ralph Tarraf.
Lebanese crisis forcing youth out of learning,
robbing them of their futures: UNICEF survey
NNA/January 28/2022
Lebanon’s crisis is increasingly forcing young people to drop out of learning
and engage in ill-paid, irregular and informal work just to survive and help
feed their families, UNICEF said in a report released today. The report –
Searching for Hope – says that more than 4 in 10 youth in Lebanon reduced
spending on education to buy basic food, medicine and other essential items, and
3 in 10 stopped their education altogether. Citing a UNICEF Youth-Focused Rapid
Assessment[1], the report also indicates that: 31% of young people are not in
education, employment, or training (NEET).
Enrolment in educational institutions dropped from 60 per cent in 2020-2021 to
43 per cent in the current academic year. Dropping out of education and learning
can severely affect young people’s life-long learning and employment prospects.
Unless action is taken to reverse current trends, this will worsen and have
serious implications for future growth and social cohesion in Lebanon. While
more and more young people are forced to drop out of education, they often find
themselves ill-equipped to compete for increasingly scarce jobs and frequently
end up taking up low-paying work in the informal sector.
Working youth have an average monthly income of about 1,600,000 Lebanese pounds
(LBP) – equivalent to about US$64 at the black-market rate. For Syrian youth in
Lebanon, this number is about half, equivalent to a daily income of around a
US$1 a day.
Seven in ten were considered unemployed and without any source of income, not
having generated any money to live over the week prior to the survey. Lebanon’s
crisis has also led to an increase in other negative coping mechanisms besides
reducing education costs.
Thirteen per cent of families sent children under 18 to work as a coping
strategy. This number could rise if the situation worsens further. Almost one in
two young people reduced expenses on health, and only 6 of 10 received primary
health care when they needed it.
Haneen, 17, said: “The money we receive now is no longer enough. Inflation is so
high, and incomes haven’t matched this. Every month we have to choose a priority
– rent, medicines, food. But we can never have them all.”
Hind[2], 22, said: “My outlook for the future here is bleak. For the first time
in my life, I want to leave my country, I want to leave Lebanon.”“Young people
in Lebanon urgently need support. Investments are needed to ensure financial
concerns do not prevent them from getting the education and skills they need to
eventually find decent work and contribute to the stability and prosperity of
Lebanon,” Ettie Higgins, Representative a.i., UNICEF Lebanon.—UNICEF
Rahi welcomes UN’s Wronecka, reiterates condemnation
against assault on UNIFIL
NNA/January 28/2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Mar Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi, on Friday reiterated
his utter condemnation against the assault on UNIFIL last week. “The role of
these forces is highly appreciated in maintaining peace and security in the
region,” he stressed. Rahi's words came during his meeting with United Nations
Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, on her second visit to the
patriarchal edifice in Bkerki in a week. The meeting between the pair reportedly
touched on the general situation in Lebanon and the region.
UN’s Wronecka visits Greek Orthodox Church of
Antioch for the Archdiocese of Beirut in Lebanon, Elias Audi
NNA/January 28/2022
Metropolitan bishop of the Greek Orthodox Church of Antioch for the Archdiocese
of Beirut in Lebanon, Elias Audi, on Friday welcomed United Nations Special
Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka.
The visit was an occasion to "discuss the current situation in Lebanon, the
difficulties facing the Lebanese, as well as the pressing need to hold
parliamentary elections on time so that the Lebanese get to express their
opinion and exercise their right to choose their representatives," according to
a statement issued by Audi’s office.
Jumblat: No One Can Replace Hariri, 1559 Can't be
Implemented
Naharnet/January 28/2022
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat has noted that “very special
circumstances” have pushed ex-PM Saad Hariri to announce the suspension of his
political activity, noting that the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1559
“cannot be implemented.”Reminiscing the era that followed ex-PM Rafik Hariri’s
assassination, Jumblat told MTV: “We continued back then with Saad Hariri and
March 14 and then we scattered.”“Today the situation has become worse, because
the Arab and international situation is worse, but we will continue the
confrontation with the allied forces in the least level of peaceful protest,”
the PSP leader added, in a live interview. “Hariri has very special
circumstances that I will not talk about,” he said. Warning that Hariri’s
absence will “leave a vacuum in the Arab Sunni arena that no one can fill,”
Jumblat said “we will see fragmentation in Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon.” Hariri
“had prevented any descent into polarization or civil war,” the PSP leader
added. Asked about the Kuwaiti paper presented to Lebanon, which contained Gulf,
Arab and international demands, Jumblat noted that “it includes Resolution 1559
which cannot be implemented and will not be implemented.”He also lamented “the
Arab abandonment of Lebanon due to Hizbullah’s attack on the Arabs.”
Jumblatt says Iran gains as Arabs abandon Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/January 28/2022
In an interview with MTV, Jumblatt said Hariri’s decision left a vacuum in Sunni
politics that nobody could fill. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt said on Thursday
that Iran had gained influence in Lebanon because Arab states had abandoned the
country, stepping up criticism of the Iran-backed Hezbollah and suggesting
Tehran wants to erase the Lebanese state. One of Lebanon’s leading political
actors, Jumblatt was speaking days after leading Sunni Muslim politician Saad
al-Hariri withdrew from political life, citing Iranian influence as one of the
reasons he saw no hope of positive change. The move by Hariri, three times prime
minister, has opened a new phase in Lebanon’s sectarian politics, adding to
uncertainties four months ahead of a parliamentary election and as Lebanon faces
a crippling financial crisis. Jumblatt and Hariri were both part of the
Western-backed March 14 alliance that confronted the heavily-armed Hezbollah and
its allies in Lebanon after the 2005 assassination of Hariri’s father, Rafik
al-Hariri. In an interview with broadcaster MTV, Jumblatt said Hariri’s decision
left a vacuum in Sunni politics that nobody could fill. “There is an Arab
abandonment of Lebanon … with the excuse of personal and political attack by
Hezbollah on the Arabs, we are the victims of this struggle,” said Jumblatt, the
leading politician in Lebanon’s minority Druze community. Ties with US-allied
Gulf Arab states that once spent billions in Lebanon have been strained for
years by Hezbollah’s influence.
Established by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982, the heavily-armed Hezbollah
has long been Lebanon’s strongest group with a militia more powerful than the
national army.
Jumblatt compared Lebanon today under Iranian influence with the 1990s when the
country was dominated by neighbouring Syria, led at the time by the late
President Hafez al-Assad. “The difference today between Iran and the Syrian rule
… (is that) President Hafez al-Assad did not annul the Lebanese entity … he did
not cancel the entity … he did not cancel the state,” Jumblatt said. He said
that during a recent visit to Moscow he had asked Russian officials to deliver a
message to Iran to respect the importance of Lebanon, including its diversity.
Referring to Hezbollah’s arsenal, he said: “We are saying we aren’t a missile
arena, we aren’t a platform for rockets.”He vowed to continue “peaceful,
political confrontation.”Jumblatt also accused Hezbollah of playing a main role
in smuggling drugs to the Gulf. Hezbollah denies this. Jumblatt also said
Lebanon simply could not meet a Gulf Arab demand for the implementation of a UN
Security Council resolution that would require the disarmament of Hezbollah, one
of several conditions for thawing ties with Beirut. “We cannot implement. It is
impossible to implement,” he said.
USAID Launches Initiative to Increase Lebanese Wine
Exports to U.S.
Naharnet/January 28/2022
The Trade and Investment Facilitation (TIF) activity, funded by The United
States Agency for International Development (USAID), has launched an export
promotion initiative to assist 15 Lebanese wineries to conform with regulatory
and market requirements to export wines to the state of Texas in the United
States. The launch event, entitled “Wine from Lebanon: Exporting Lebanese Wine
to the United States”, was held in the presence of USAID Lebanon Mission
Director Eileen Devitt, the Minister of Economy and Trade Amin Salam,
representatives of the 15 wineries, and other stakeholders in the wine industry.
Under this initiative, USAID will assist these wineries meet U.S. product
requirements, obtain legal permits, and build brand awareness to position and
place Lebanese wine in leading retail outlets. In his opening remarks, Minister
Salam stressed the importance of USAID’s financial and technical assistance to
sustain and grow the country’s productive economic sectors. He stated: “The
Ministry is committed to lead the recovery process of Lebanon’s economy and
we’re currently focusing our efforts on increasing the export value of Lebanese
goods and services by supporting the formation of local economic clusters in key
industries and subsectors.” He closed by emphasizing that the Ministry applauds
activities, such as those from USAID, that align with the Ministry’s economic
recovery plan. “We fully support cooperation between Lebanese ministries and bi-
and multilateral donors that benefit our country and citizens struggling through
these challenging economic times.” In her remarks, USAID Lebanon Mission
Director Eileen Devitt stated, “Through our joint efforts, we expect to generate
$5.5 million of new sales in foreign currency to sustain operations over the
next three years and create at least 100 new jobs, which is much needed during
the current economic conditions.”“Most importantly, this effort will result in a
positive effect for the entire wine sub-sector, as well as the agro-food sector,
since it will open the door for other Lebanese wineries, and agro-food
processors to expand into export markets,” Devitt added.
TIF and its U.S.-based partner, Maden Lebanon S.A.R.L., plan to include more
Lebanese wineries in this initiative after establishing market linkages to the
annual $2.6 billion Texan wine market.
USAID’s TIF project is designed to enhance economic opportunities in Lebanon by
facilitating trade and investment in targeted business sectors, resulting in job
creation and increased incomes for Lebanese citizens, with a strong emphasis on
exports and enhancing women’s workforce participation.
TIF works towards increasing the exports of Lebanese goods and services,
facilitating investment opportunities, and improving the business and investment
enabling environment (BIEE) in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s Bahaa Rafik Al-Hariri says he will continue
his father’s journey
Arab News/January 28, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Bahaa Al-Hariri said on Friday that he would continue the
journey of his father, the late Prime Minister Rafik Al-Hariri, and would “enter
the battle to take back” the country.
Bahaa’s younger brother, Saad, a three times prime minister, announced earlier
this week that he was not running in a forthcoming parliamentary election and
was stepping back from his role in political life, calling on his political
party to do the same.
Bahaa, 55, who has not held public office before and largely kept away from
politics, said in a recorded speech sent to news outlets, including Sawt Beirut,
that he “will fight the battle to restore the country and restore the
sovereignty of the country from its occupiers.”
He added that “any misinformation or intimidation” alluding to a power vacuum
among Lebanon’s Sunni Muslims “serves only the enemies of the country.”
Saad cited Iran’s influence as one of the reasons he saw little hope of positive
change for Lebanon, an influence it wields through Shiite group Hezbollah.
Bahaa has been an open, fierce critic of his brother’s policy toward the
Iran-backed group.
“The son of the martyr Rafik Hariri will not leave Lebanon, I am with you and
very soon I will be among you,” Bahaa said in his speech.
Full address, as reported by Sawt Beirut:
“My Lebanese brothers and sisters…
Greetings from the heart…
The absence was prolonged, but you were always present in my heart and mind. I
will not talk about the seriousness of the stage because you know its
dangerousness and the accuracy of the upcoming stage.
First of all, it must be emphasized that neither our religion, nor our morals,
nor our upbringing, we, the sons of Martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, allow us
to abandon our responsibility and we put all our capabilities for the sake of
Lebanon’s renaissance, Lebanon the message, Lebanon the symbol, Lebanon the
homeland.
The family of the martyr Rafik Hariri, the small as his big family, did not,
does not, and will not disintegrate. In partnership and solidarity, we will
fight the battle to restore the homeland and restore the sovereignty of the
homeland from its occupiers.
I will continue the path of Martyr Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.
We are continuing what we learned from the parents of the late Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri.
We learned that:
We are the people of moderation, not extremism;
We are the people of reconstruction, not collapse;
We are people of citizenship, not discrimination;
We are the people of sovereignty, not dependence;
We are the people of the Arab depth;
The son of the martyr Rafik Hariri will not leave Lebanon, we are with you and
very soon we will show you.
Long live free and independent Lebanon.
Lebanon highlights drug seizures as PM ‘smooths rough
edges’ of response to Kuwaiti initiative
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 28, 2022
Initiative calls for serious steps to rebuild confidence with Gulf states amid
concern over Hezbollah weapons
BEIRUT: Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi pledged that the Lebanese state “will
spare no effort in thwarting all smuggling operations and preventing harm to our
Arab brothers.”
He also announced on Thursday evening that the Anti-Narcotics Office of the
Judicial Police, in cooperation with the Anti-Narcotics Division of the Customs,
had seized about 12 tons of drugs hidden in boxes of powdered juice bound
initially for Sudan. Two days earlier, the minister revealed that authorities
had seized a large quantity of captagon hidden in a tea shipment being sent by
sea to an African country and then on to the Gulf.
The seizures come as Lebanon strives to show that it takes the smuggling of
drugs to Gulf nations seriously, and highlight the effectiveness of its security
and intelligence measures to combat the illicit trade.
BACKGROUND
Kuwait’s foreign minister said recently that he has given Lebanese authorities a
list of suggested measures to be taken to ease a diplomatic rift with Gulf
countries. As part of efforts to repair strained relations between Lebanon and
Gulf states, Kuwaiti Foreign Minister Ahmed Nasser Al-Mohammed Al-Sabah
presented a new initiative during talks in Lebanon last week. It includes 10
items that “represent Arab, Gulf and international conditions for rebuilding
confidence with Lebanon,” he said during his visit.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib will deliver an official response
to the Kuwaiti initiative on Saturday.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati is trying to smooth the rough edges of the response,
according to a source close to the PM, which will include a call for dialogue on
the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons on the grounds that Shebaa Farms and Kafr Shuba
are still occupied by the Israelis.
The source also said that Mikati reiterates Lebanon’s continuing adherence to
the Taif Agreement that ended the civil war in the country, international
resolutions and efforts to ensure the best possible relations with the region
and the world.
The Kuwaiti initiative has been extensively discussed among members of the
ruling Lebanese authority and it is understood the response has undergone
several revisions.
Leaked information suggests that the initiative includes “harsh conditions, some
of which are impossible to implement, such as Security Council Resolution 1559,
which calls for the disbanding and disarming of all Lebanese militias.”
It also is said to call for Lebanon to adhere to political, economic and
financial reforms, rehabilitate state institutions, adopt neutrality, respect
the sovereignty of Arab and Gulf countries, halt any political, media or
military interference in these countries, respect the decisions of the Arab
League, and commit to international resolutions.
Other conditions include disarming all militias and extending government control
over all Lebanese territory; serious measures to control Lebanese border
crossings and prevent drug smuggling, including the adoption of a clear and
decisive security policy that prevents the targeting of Gulf countries by
drug-smuggling operations; measures to prevent interference by Hezbollah in the
Yemen war; and taking firm steps to prevent any meetings or gatherings that
might affect the internal affairs of Gulf states.
Gebran Bassil, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, said that the Kuwaiti
initiative includes conditions that would require time to be implemented, and
some that are contentious to the Lebanese.
“Discussing the issue of arms is dangerous,” Bassil, whose bloc constitutes
President Michel Aoun’s team in the parliament, told Russia Today.
“There is Israeli aggression and Palestinian invasion happening on Lebanese
territories, and external pressure on Lebanon leads to an internal implosion as
the conflict becomes a conflict between those who support Hezbollah’s weapons
and those who are against them.”
Nabih Berri, the parliament’s speaker, said his position on Hezbollah’s weapons
has not changed.
“Some Lebanese lands are still occupied by Israel, which gives these weapons a
reason to exist and gives Hezbollah and Lebanon the right to resist the
occupation,” he said.
Although Hezbollah has not responded directly to the Kuwaiti initiative, the
party announced that Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah will deliver a speech on
Monday. It is not known whether he will be supportive of the initiative or renew
his criticism of Gulf states.
Lebanon’s Al-Markazia news agency quoted a source close to the party as saying:
“Nasrallah will focus on the reasons and motives that dictate Hezbollah’s
adherence to the resistance as long as there is an inch of Lebanese territory
occupied.”
In his Friday sermon, Sheikh Ahmed Qabalan, a Shiite cleric affiliated with
Hezbollah and the Amal movement, addressed “brothers in the Gulf Cooperation
Council” and said: “The enemy is Israel, not the Arabs, and the danger lies in
Tel Aviv, not in Beirut’s southern suburb.
“The solution does not start with (UN Security Council resolutions). The weapons
of the resistance are a guarantee for the Arabs and not against them.
“Today, the resistance’s weapons are a guarantee for Lebanon and the greatest
national need to prevent any civil war, sectarian strife or an Israeli or
takfiri invasion.”
مقالة البرتو فرنندس في موقع ممري: أي
اتفاق نووي إيراني جديد سوف يؤدي إلى تدمير لبنان
How A New JCPOA Will Turbocharge Lebanon's
Destruction
Alberto M. Fernandez/ MEMRI Daily Brief No. 356/January 28/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105922/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a8%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88-%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%86%d9%86%d8%af%d8%b3-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d9%85%d9%85%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%81/
One of the cruelest aspects of the Syrian Civil War was the ethnic cleansing.
Every side did it, purging populations of the wrong ethnic or religious group
from regions they controlled (Turkey did it over Kurdish majority areas like
Afrin, populating it with Sunni Arabs who had themselves been pushed out by the
Assad regime elsewhere). The Assad regime was the biggest driver of demographic
change on the ground, pushing people out of some areas, millions of them fleeing
the country. Assad was aided in this by his allies Russia, Iran, and the
Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah. This demographic change continues in
conquered areas of Syria as Iran and Hezbollah seek to promote Shia Islam among
the Sunni population while also settling foreign militiamen in key areas.
The same demographic push happened in Iraq and was done also through both
violence and coercion. The strategic Jurf al-Sakhar (now renamed Jurf al-Nasr by
the conquerors) region south of Baghdad was cleansed of its Sunni Arab
population (now languishing in IDP camps elsewhere)[1] by Iranian-controlled
Iraqi militias who keep it as a closed military zone. These militias also seek
to take over towns in the historically Christian and Yazidi Nineveh Plain area
in Northern Iraq. And absentee owners from the wrong religion or ethnic group
regularly risk losing their property in Mosul or Baghdad to politically
connected criminal networks.
In Syria and Iraq, the ethnic cleansing happened under cover of war. But in
Lebanon there is a silent, slow-motion ethnic cleansing happening before our
eyes, driven by the economic crisis and benefitting Hezbollah, the best funded
(with hard currency from Iran) faction in Lebanon while its local rivals are
beggared. Such an operation will only accelerate should a new JCPOA nuclear deal
be agreed to in Vienna between the United States and Iran. Ahead of any such
deal, Iran and its proxies are already benefiting financially by decreased
American pressure on the regime by the Biden Administration.[2] And Hezbollah is
not merely just another Iranian-supported militia, like those deadly local
groups in Iraq and Syria. It is a strategic tool of Iran incorporated deeply
into the IRGC's long reach, an equal partner in Iran's ambitious regional
project.[3]
Fresh dollars from the nuclear deal will line Hezbollah's coffers and will not
only go for salaries and weapons and political influence, but also for real
estate, as the group seeks to expand Shia-dominated areas of Lebanon, ideally
geographically connecting the mostly Shia South to the group's South Beirut
stronghold and to Shia populations in current Christian majority areas like
Batroun. Hezbollah's state within a state will become a literal, physical
project on the ground, displacing Christian, Druze, and Sunni Muslims getting in
the way.[4]
Lebanon's economic crisis has, not surprisingly, led to a migration crisis that
looks to get even worse in Spring and Summer of 2022. As Lebanon's best and
brightest flee, they leave behind property, land, houses, and real estate.
Lebanese are traditionally deeply attached to their land but desperate people
who have had their savings wiped out find out that the only thing they can sell
to finance their flight is their physical property. Lebanese tell me of families
selling their property to other Christians or other Sunnis only to find out that
these were middlemen acting for Shia, Hezbollah-connected interests. Still other
times the buyers are supposedly from Gulf states but in the end also turn out to
be Hezbollah-connected owners.[5] JCPOA cash will arrive for unscrupulous buyers
in the midst of an unprecedented fire sale.[6]
This twilight conflict over real estate and demographics is not new. It has been
an issue of public concern for Lebanese Christians for some time, sometimes
expressed in crude terms as local Christian municipalities try to stop sales to
Muslims.[7] But the economic crisis that has reduced the once middle-class
Lebanese to penury has led to a flood of departures as the country literally
sits in the darkness and the cold, without electricity. Reportedly 40% of the
country's doctors have already left as of late 2021.[8] Seventy percent of those
leaving Lebanon are young people, often the most educated or those with
technical skills that transfer the most easily to opportunities elsewhere. A
quarter of million Lebanese fled the country during a four-month period in
2021.[9]
Reducing the country's Christian population is particularly significant for
Hezbollah. It is that population that traditionally has the most Western ties,
and a part of that population once allied with Israel 40 years ago. There is
also, while that population remains, the contours of a tiny contiguous Christian
majority statelet that could be formed, ranging from East Beirut towards the
North, the old Lebanese Forces "canton" of Lebanese Civil War days. Hezbollah
rejects the idea of a neutral "federal" Lebanon of locally ruled regions (where
Christians, Sunnis and Druze would have their own) where its direct influence
could be lessened. Obviously, in Lebanon, as done by Iranian-controlled militias
in Iraq, Hezbollah would have its own Christian or Sunni proxies to help it
rule.
The new Lebanon that Hezbollah is building with its cash, corruption, and its
use of violence will be more homogenous and conformist than the country ever
was. It will have less Christians, Sunnis, and Druze but also fewer Lebanese
Shia that are willing to stand up to the Nasrallah regime. It was almost a year
ago this week that Lokman Slim, a fierce opponent of Hezbollah and a member of
the Shia community, was assassinated with complete impunity.[10] "Hezboland"
will resemble in a way the "Fatahland" the Palestinian Liberation Organization
controlled in South Lebanon in the 1970s but on a broader and deeper scale. And
just like the PLO used Lebanon to host like-minded revolutionaries from
throughout the world, so Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon – a reality that is almost
complete – will serve as safe haven, training ground, and university for the
terror and insurgent groups of tomorrow, especially ones targeting countries
with a local Shia population like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Hamas, of course, is
already present on the ground.[11] The alliance of Assad's Syria and Hezbollah's
Lebanon are already criminal partners in a burgeoning regional drug cartel that
looks both to the Middle East and Europe.[12]
Financial relief for Tehran will translate to cash for Hezbollah but also for
other activities, for ballistic missile and drone development, for the Houthis
and the Iraqi death squads. It will also translate into support for Iranian
intelligence operations worldwide, including in the Western hemisphere.[13]
Official Washington and Paris seem to hope that parliamentary elections, help on
electricity and money for the Lebanese Army will somehow staunch the bleeding in
Lebanon. Or that new assistance by the IMF and others channeled through the
country's ruling kleptocrats can make a difference. The effort to help a
prostrate Lebanon is commendable. But the hope that elections – should they
actually be held – will produce an outcome that will seriously challenge
Hezbollah's stranglehold on the country seem far-fetched. By all means, let
critics of the status quo flourish and be supported in their quest but
policymakers need to be far more realistic in their expectations about a country
where, for the last 17-plus years, opponents of Iran and Syria have had a way of
winding up dead.
A more nuanced strategy could focus on the upcoming migration crisis and what
steps can be made to keep Lebanon's remaining human capital tied to their
homeland. Direct support for the country's private schools (traditionally used
by most Lebanese), enhanced job creation, and better overall security are
obvious ways to try to help but it is both extremely late in the day in the
Lebanese catastrophe and extremely difficult given Hezbollah's stranglehold on
power, to see how such efforts could be launched, fully-fledged, to be able to
help enough in time. Last-ditch efforts to save old Lebanon before it is
definitively lost are worth a try. Helping Lebanon's victims is worthwhile, but
not while simultaneously empowering their victimizers and lining their pockets.
*Alberto M. Fernandez is Vice President of MEMRI.
[1] Youtube.com/watch?v=WVFXQtsG0Ec, June 21, 2020.
[2] Wsj.com/articles/iran-nuclear-deal-jcpoa-biden-trump-diplomacy-11642192678,
January 16, 2022.
[3] Brookings.edu/opinions/hezbollah-revolutionary-irans-most-successful-export,
January 17, 2019.
[4] Mtv.com.lb, January 20, 2022.
[5] Alquds.co.uk, January 14, 2022.
[6] Aawsat.com/home/article/3403396, January 9, 2022.
[7] Raseef22.net/article/1086142, January 22, 2022.
[8] Youtube.com/watch?v=xqmU3ONjrbA, December 19, 2021.
[9] Aljazeera.net/news/politics/2021/10/18, October 18, 2021.
[10] Cpj.org/data/people/lokman-slim, accessed January 28, 2022.
[11] Reuters.com/world/middle-east/explosion-rocks-south-lebanon-palestinian-camp-2021-12-10,
December 11, 2021.
[12] Dayan.org/content/no-boundaries-syrian-lebanese-drug-economy, accessed
January 28, 2022.
[13] Dw.com/es/oea-condena-visita-a-nicaragua-de-iran%C3%AD-acusado-por-atentado/a-60489322,
January 20, 2022.
حنين غدار/عودة حزب الله إلى الحكومة هي فخ سياسي
Hezbollah’s return to the government is a political trap
Hanin Ghaddar/Al Arabiya/Janauary 27/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105914/105914/
After three months of boycotting cabinet sessions, Hezbollah finally announced
that it would return – with its ally, the Amal Movement - to the political
table, but with the caveat of several demands.
The issues the groups are ready to discuss are the annual budget, the IMF
negotiations, the economic rescue plan, and “all that concerns improving the
living conditions of the Lebanese,” their joint statement said. They will not
discuss and decide on the upcoming appointments, mainly the judiciary ones. That
is, of course, related to their efforts to jeopardize the investigation of the
Beirut Port Blast, headed by Judge Tarek Bitar.
Bitar is the reason why both organizations boycotted the government in the
beginning. Their return considers three main issues, none of which is a reason
to celebrate.
First, efforts by Bitar to interrogate ex-ministers have been challenged with
lawsuits, while Hezbollah and Amal have accused him of politicizing the probe.
Today, there are claims of a behind-the-scene deal that jeopardizes the
investigation.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati denies this, saying that no cabinet decisions will
hinder Bitar’s investigation. If there is an agreement, the victims are
transparency and finding justice for the victims’ families.
Although Hezbollah is blaming its allies, everybody knows that the country’s
paralysis sits entirely at its own doorstep.
The fear is the realization that its support is turning on it. Hezbollah cannot
afford this kind of disillusionment with the elections on the horizon.
Hezbollah also understands the need to revive its political standing to control
the election process. The decision to return to cabinet discussions has little
to do with the economic crisis or any desire to resolve it.
Hezbollah realizes that any risk to its majority in parliament means the
possibility of losing leverage when choosing the next president of the republic.
President Michel Aoun’s mandate expires later this year. Suppose Hezbollah’s
calculations indicate that the new parliament will not grant it the power of the
majority. In that case, it will probably try to postpone May’s election or push
to have the presidential elections sooner. The group certainly needs to
influence the cabinet to make these decisions.
Another danger linked to the election preparations is implementing policies
protecting and preserving the political elite. Reversing the plummeting
valuation of the Lebanese Lira has seen the Central Bank’s reserves plundered.
Last week, the bank’s governor Riad Salameh injected US dollars into Lebanon’s
market. However, with only $13 billion left, Salameh is spending depositors’
money lodged by members of the public that they themselves cannot access.
All of this points to Hezbollah’s willingness to drive Lebanon and the people
into the abyss economically, politically, and socially. There will be no
accountability and justice, which will result in more crime and chaos. There
will be fewer reserves in the central bank, which means the Lebanese Lira will
fall more and become increasingly worthless. In addition to the risk of
postponement, there are other significant risks to the elections, including
violations and intimidation.
There is no reason to celebrate Hezbollah’s return to the government or the
ever-diminishing value of the lira. These are strategies employed by the group
and the political and financial leadership to jeopardize justice and democracy.
The coming months are vital for this fake political party both internally and
internationally. While elections will determine the parliament and the
president, the talks taking place in Vienna between Iran and the United States
will also bear how the political environment will develop in the coming months.
Iran needs Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon as bargaining chips for leverage in
the negotiations. Hezbollah’s active role in government might safeguard the
group’s influence and power, but it will prevent justice from prevailing.
The Lebanese opposition needs to unite to build a transparent political
platform that issues a clear message to Hezbollah that it cannot interfere with
the proper governance of the country.
The international community has to use every tool to protect Bitar’s
investigation, proper oversight of fair elections, and ensure these elections do
not occur before May.
Should the Beirut port blast site be turned into a place
of remembrance?
Arab News/January 28/2022
DUBAI: For Sultan El-Halabi, Aug. 4, 2020, began like any other day in Beirut.
He was driving with his mother from their hometown of Chouf to the Lebanese
capital, where they checked into a sea-facing hotel to rest.
But shortly after 6 p.m., El-Halabi’s mother said she felt a strange rumbling
sensation. El-Halabi crossed the room to the balcony to investigate the cause
when all of a sudden, the entire window frame flew off, collapsing right in
front of him. They were both lucky to escape uninjured.
“No one could have expected that to happen,” El-Halabi, a 23-year-old
architecture graduate, told Arab News from his base in Dubai, more than a year
on from the Beirut port blast — a disaster that killed over 200 people and left
some 300,000 homeless.
“I remember the view of the city afterward. They were warning people at the
hotel to stay indoors because acid or chemicals could be in the air. The sky
started changing color. It was more reddish. It was like a war zone. Everything,
in just one second, was completely gone.”More than a year later, the scars
remain visible on the city skyline. What is less visible are mental scars the
blast has left on those who survived and who lost homes, businesses and loved
ones. “In Lebanon now, you should just live your day as if it’s your last,” El-Halabi
said. “Always stay connected with your loved ones because you never know what
could happen.”
The tragedy motivated El-Halabi to base his senior graduation project at the
American University in Dubai on restoring the devastated port, transforming it
into an accessible, multi-functional and job-creating site that can be “given
back to the people.” His project, named “Repurpose 607,” envisages replacing the
five damaged warehouse plots with a memorial museum, a sound-healing therapy
space, an amphitheater and an underground parking area. “Everything, in just one
second, was completely gone,” said Sultan El-Halabi, referring to the port
tragedy. (Supplied)
The site would also feature a library, offices and a cafe, while a raised,
circular footpath would offer visitors an overview of the port. Flooded with
natural light, the sound-healing therapy building would offer meditation and
cognitive behavioral sessions to help those suffering with post-traumatic stress
disorder as a result of the blast.
“For many people, until this day, if they hear a slight bang or any weird noise,
they would always refer to the explosion or take cover,” El-Halabi said. Sound
therapy could help many traumatized Beirut residents find calm and closure.
The proposed memorial museum would include a timeline of Beirut’s history up
until the day of the blast and the names of its victims engraved on a large
triangulated stone. The tragedy motivated Sultan El-Halabi to base his senior
graduation project on restoring the devastated port. (Supplied)
El-Halabi likens this tribute to how Americans honored the dead in New York
following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
“They did not rebuild where the Twin Towers were located,” El-Halabi said. “They
dedicated that plot of land to the people and they transformed it into a
beautiful memorial place to make sure that people’s memories would live on
forever. It kind of inspired me to do something similar, but for Lebanon.”
The proposed site would have pedestrian paths as well as greenery and seating
areas to offer space for quiet reflection away from the city traffic. A basement
area would also be built to include a gallery for Lebanese artists to showcase
their work.
The proposed site would have pedestrian paths as well as greenery and seating
areas to offer space for quiet reflection. (Supplied)
Aesthetically geometric and bold, it is a place designed to benefit the people,
to help them “to overcome the trauma and for them to see the beauty in the site
rather than always fearing it,” El-Halabi said.
In his design, only one crucial element of the site remains untouched and
preserved — the massive grain silos, which experts claim shielded the city from
further damage. “It symbolizes strength and empowerment,” El-Halabi said. “It’s
proof to the world that we could overcome any obstacle that we face.”
The young architect acknowledges it could take time for traumatized residents of
the Lebanese capital to feel emotionally ready to visit a renovated site. “Of
course it could be controversial,” El-Halabi said.
Aesthetically geometric and bold, it is a place designed to benefit the people.
(Supplied)
“Many people have different opinions and you can’t change them so easily.
Everyone has their own freedom to view things the way they’re supposed to. But,
I am able to at least enlighten them with the advantages behind this proposal.”
As a student embracing cutting-edge digital technology, El-Halabi admired the
ideas of pioneering architects like Antoni Gaudí and Frank Gehry, and especially
Santiago Calatrava, who designed the falcon wing-shaped UAE pavilion at Expo
2020 Dubai.
The idea has been called “clever and thoughtful.” (Supplied)
Having lived almost all of his life in Dubai, El-Halabi says he has also been
heavily influenced by his ever-evolving urban surroundings — considered one of
the world’s most dramatic and experimental cityscapes.
“It all started with dunes,” he said, reflecting on Dubai’s astronomical growth
over recent decades. “They were able to convert the UAE into a heavenly place.
It inspires me a lot. It shows that, in such a short time, nothing is
impossible.”
He also subscribes to the notion that architecture is more than its stylistic
elements, and should ultimately work to enhance people’s lives.
Sultan El-Halabi likens this tribute to how Americans honored the 9/11 terrorist
attacks victims. (Supplied)
“It’s about finding the missing satisfaction of what people need and trying to
provide it to them,” he said. “Architecture is more than just designing or
placing a building. You need to take into consideration the people and provide
facilities for them. It also needs to fit in perfectly with its surroundings.”
In October last year, as part of Dubai Design Week, “Repurpose 607” was among 60
submissions that made it to the MENA Grad Show, where graduates from across the
region present their “design meets purpose” projects that address social, health
and environmental issues.
“It’s an architectural solution that goes well beyond architecture,” said Carlo
Rizzo. (Supplied)
Carlo Rizzo, the show’s 2021 edition editor, praised El-Halabi’s project,
describing it as one of the “top entries.”
“Repurpose 607 struck me first of all for its empathy,” Rizzo told Arab News.
“It’s an architectural solution that goes well beyond architecture. It looks at
the built environment as a platform for building resilience in our communities
and takes mental health and wellbeing as a starting point.
“Repurpose 607” was among 60 submissions that made it to the MENA Grad Show.
(Supplied)
“To remember the victims and transform the site into a place of healing is not
just a clever and thoughtful idea, but an urgent solution addressing a very real
need.”
El-Halabi, who currently works for a Dubai-based architectural firm, still hopes
to see his Beirut port project brought to life some day.
“I’ve been to Lebanon two times since the explosion,” he said. “Every time I
pass by the port, I always picture how it would look in real life, trying to see
my project being built there. It could have potential.”
Twitter: @artprojectdxb
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 28-29/2022
Pope says fake news, disinformation
on COVID, is human rights violation
Reuters/January 28/2022
Pope Francis said on Friday that spreading fake news and disinformation on
COVID-19 and vaccines, including by Catholic media, is a violation of human
rights. It was the second time in less than month that the 85-year-old pope has
spoken out on the subject. Three weeks ago, he condemned “baseless” ideological
misinformation about vaccines, backing national immunisation campaigns and
calling health care a moral obligation. Francis made his comments in an address
to members of catholicfactchecking.com, a consortium of Catholic media whose
website says its aim is to “clarify fake news and misleading information” about
vaccines against COVID. “To be properly informed, to be helped to understand
situations based on scientific data and not fake news, is a human right,” the
pope told the group. “Correct information must be ensured above all to those who
are less equipped, to the weakest and to those who are most vulnerable.”
Iran nuclear talks paused, ‘political decisions’ needed
Agencies/ 28 January ,2022
The latest round of talks to salvage the Iran nuclear deal in Vienna have been
put on pause, the European Union coordinator Enrique Mora said Friday, calling
for “political decisions” to break the deadlock. “Participants will go back to
capital(s) for consultations and instructions to come back next week. Political
decisions are needed now,” Mora tweeted. The deal -- sealed in 2015 by Iran, the
United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia -- gave Tehran
sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. However, after
the US pulled out of the accord and reimposed sanctions in 2018 under
then-president Donald Trump, Iran began dramatically stepping up its nuclear
activities. Nuclear talks between Iran and Western powers are reaching their
final stage and now require political input, E3 negotiators said the talks were
reaching their final state. “January has been the most intensive period of these
talks to date,” said the statement from the so-called E3: France, Britain and
Germany. “Everyone knows we are reaching the final stage, which requires
political decisions. Negotiators are therefore returning to capitals for
consultation.”Talks aiming to rescue the faltering accord began in the Austrian
capital in April and -- after a five-month suspension -- resumed in November.
The EU has played the role of mediator, while Washington has been taking part
only indirectly in the negotiations. But on Monday Iran for the first time said
it was open to direct negotiations with the US, which quickly declared itself
ready to hold talks “urgently.”The potential turning point came after US
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in mid-January that it was a “decisive
moment” in the negotiations, warning there were only “a few weeks left” to save
a deal.
Sullivan Reassures Israel as US Seeks to Conclude
Nuclear Deal with Iran
Washington – Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28
January, 2022
The United States’ stressed that while it remains committed to diplomacy as the
best means for preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, it is preparing
alternative options, in coordination with its partners, should diplomacy fail, a
top US diplomat assured Israel. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and his Israeli counterpart Dr. Eyal
Hulata met on Wednesday as part of the US-Israel Strategic Consultative Group (SCG),
said a White House statement. “They were joined by senior representatives from their respective foreign
policy, defense, and intelligence agencies,” it added. The two sides discussed upcoming military training exercises, without revealing
whether these exercises simulate the scenario of an attack against Iranian
facilities. According to US officials, the meeting came in light of news on a proposal by
Russia to sign an interim agreement with Iran, raising concerns in Israel.
The interim deal would be part of JCPOA framework rather than an independent
agreement, as efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal between world powers and
Tehran are at a standstill. The officials linked the proposal to the resignation of Richard Nephew, the US
Deputy Special Envoy for Iran, and the boycott of two other members of the US
delegation to the Vienna talks. The members have refused to make “substantial”
concessions that may lead to giving Tehran the opportunity to obtain better
terms and release millions of its dollars in assets that have been so far frozen
due to sanctions, putting US national security at risk.
Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken are said to be playing a role in
mitigating the “concessions” offered by Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, to
reassure the Israelis that reaching an agreement with Iran “will not be at their
expense.”
Last week, Blinken warned there was only a brief window to bring talks to save
the nuclear deal to a successful conclusion.
Qatar, Iran Discuss Bilateral Ties, Regional Developments
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28
January, 2022
Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani held talks on
Thursday with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amirabdollahian in Tehran, ahead
of talks with President Ebrahim Raisi. Discussions tackled bilateral ties and
political developments in the region. Amirabdollahian met with Qatar’s ruling
emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and Sheikh Mohammed during his visit to
Doha on Jan. 11. On Tuesday, Al Thani held talks with Iran’s FM over the phone,
Iranian Ambassador to Qatar Hamid Reza Dehghani announced on Twitter. According
to a Foreign Ministry statement, the ministers discussed bilateral and regional
issues, including Afghanistan and Yemen, without referring to the nuclear talks.
Al Thani said in a tweet that he he met with his Iranian counterpart and held
fruitful discussions on the latest regional developments. “I emphasize the
constants of Qatar’s foreign policy, based on good neighborliness and
constructive dialogue, to foster political dialogue aimed at achieving
sustainable regional stability,” he added. Raisi underscored the importance of
“deepening ties between regional countries” in a meeting with Sheikh Mohammed,
who invited the president to attend Gas Exporting Countries Forum summit in
February in Doha. Al Thani’s visit comes after Amirabdollahian on Monday said
Tehran is ready to consider direct talks with Washington if it feels it can get
a “good nuclear deal.” However, Iran’s state news agency IRNA said the visit was
not intended to help set up direct talks with Washington. “Although Doha and
Tehran are experiencing good and close relations, this visit ... has fueled some
misconceptions. Some are fabricating it to facilitate direct talks with the
United States,” IRNA said, Reuters reported. The US and Iran have held eight
rounds of indirect talks in Vienna since April aimed at reinstating the 2015
pact that lifted sanctions against Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its
nuclear program. After then-US President Donald Trump quit the nuclear deal in
2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions, Iran gradually started violating the pact’s
nuclear curbs. Significant gaps remain about the speed and scope of returning to
the deal, including Iran’s demand for a US guarantee of no further punitive
steps, and how and when to restore curbs on Iran’s atomic work. Sheikh Tamim
will hold talks with US President Joe Biden on Jan. 31 including on efforts to
salvage the pact.
At Least 3 Rockets Hit Near Baghdad Airport
Associated Press/Friday, 28 January, 2022
At least three rockets struck near Baghdad's international airport and an
adjacent military base that hosts U.S. and other coalition advisors on Friday,
damaging an abandoned commercial plane but causing no casualties, Iraqi
officials said. The rockets struck in the early morning hours, and landed
between the civilian and military areas of the airport, two security officials
said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the
press. Iraqi Airways, the country's main carrier, said in a statement that the
attack damaged one of its out of service planes parked near the airport but that
operations were running normally and no delays were expected. The attack is the
latest in a series of rocket and drone strikes that have targeted the American
presence in Iraq since the start of the year, following the second anniversary
of the U.S. strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassim Soleimani and Iraqi militia
commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Pro-Iran Shiite factions in Iraq have vowed
revenge for Soleimani's killing and have conditioned the end of the attacks on
the full exit of American troops from the country. The U.S.-led coalition
formally ended its combat mission supporting Iraqi forces in the ongoing fight
against the Islamic State group last month. Some 2,500 troops will remain as the
coalition shifts to an advisory mission to continue supporting Iraqi forces.
Israel Says 'Almost Killed' Soleimani in Syria
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 January, 2022
Former Israeli Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot revealed that his army had "almost
killed" commander of Iran's Quds Force Qassem Soleimani in Syria years before
his was assassinated by the United States. In an interview with Israel's Maariv
newspaper, he said his forces have carried out several operations against the
ISIS terrorist group, killing almost hundreds of its members. The Israeli army
carried out direct air strikes and land operations against ISIS members wherever
they were found in the Middle East, he revealed. "We decided to take part in the
fight against ISIS. In cooperation with several other armies, we carried out
countless operations," he added. "We targeted members of the organization on a
very wide scale. I estimate that our operations killed hundreds of operatives,
wounded over 1,000 members and destroyed positions and infrastructure," he
continued. One of these operations took place in Syria and "almost killed
Soleimani two years before he was assassinated by an American strike," revealed
Eizenkot. He managed to survive by sheer luck, he added without elaborating.
Soleimani was ultimately killed by a US drone strike near Baghdad airport in
January 2020.
Russia Says it Won't Start a War as Ukraine Tensions
Mount
Associated Press/Friday, 28 January, 2022 - 06:15
Russia's top diplomat said Friday that Moscow will not start a war but warned
that it wouldn't allow the West to trample on its security interests amid fears
it is planning to invade Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden warned Ukraine's
leader a day earlier that there is a "distinct possibility" that Russia could
take military action against its neighbor in February. "There won't be a war as
far as it depends on the Russian Federation, we don't want a war," Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a live interview with Russian radio stations.
"But we won't let our interests be rudely trampled on and ignored."Tensions have
soared in recent weeks, and the United States and its NATO allies worry that a
buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops near Ukraine signals that Moscow
intends to attack the ex-Soviet state. Russia has repeatedly denied having any
such plans, but has demanded that NATO promise Ukraine will never be allowed to
join and that the alliance roll back deployments of troops and military
equipment in Eastern Europe. The U.S. and NATO formally rejected those demands
this week, though Washington outlined areas where discussions are possible,
offering hope that there could be a way to avoid war.
Russia's official response to those proposals will come from President Vladimir
Putin, but the Kremlin has sounded a grim note thus far, saying there is "little
ground for optimism."Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Putin could
discuss his reaction to the U.S. rejection with French President Emmanuel Macron
during their video call Friday. The Russian leader is also scheduled to chair a
meeting of his Security Council later in the day. Lavrov noted Friday that the
U.S. suggested the two sides could talk about limits on the deployment of
intermediate-range missiles, restrictions on military drills and rules to
prevent accidents between warships and aircraft. He said that Russia proposed
discussing those issues years ago — but Washington and its allies never took
them up on it until now.
While he described the U.S. offers for dialogue on confidence-building measures
as reasonable, he emphasized that Russia's main concerns are to stop NATO's
expansion and the deployment of the alliance weapons near Russia's borders. He
noted that international agreements say that the security of one nation must not
come at the expense of others' — and that he would send letters to ask his
Western counterparts to address that obligation. "It will be hard for them to
wiggle out from answering why they aren't fulfilling the obligations sealed by
their leaders not to strengthen their security at the expense of others," he
said.
As tensions build, Washington warned Moscow of devastating sanctions if it
invades Ukraine, including penalties targeting top Russian officials and key
economic sectors. Several senior U.S. officials also said Thursday that Germany
would not allow a newly constructed pipeline — which is meant to bring gas
directly from Russia — to begin operations if Russia invades Ukraine. Asked
about possible sanctions, Lavrov said that Moscow had warned Washington that
their introduction would amount to a complete severing of ties. While Moscow and
the West are mulling their next steps, NATO said it was bolstering its
deterrence in the Baltic Sea region, and the U.S. ordered 8,500 troops on higher
alert for potential deployment to Europe. Russia has launched a series of
military drills involving motorized infantry and artillery units in southwestern
Russia, warplanes in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea, and dozens of warships in
the Black Sea and the Arctic. Russian troops have also headed to Belarus for
sweeping joint drills, raising Western fears that Moscow could stage an attack
on Ukraine from the north. The Ukrainian capital is just 75 kilometers (50
miles) from the border with Belarus.
Despite the alarming rhetoric, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly tried to
project calm. Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told parliament Friday
that the total number of Russian troops near Ukraine — about 130,000 — is
comparable to Moscow's military buildup in the spring of 2021, when Moscow
eventually pulled its forces back after massive military exercises. "We haven't
observed any events or actions of military character that significantly differ
from what was going on last spring," with the exception of the deployment to
Belarus, Reznikov said.
But that has so far not reassured many in the West. Biden warned Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Thursday's call that the U.S. believed there
was a high degree of likelihood that Russia could invade when the ground freezes
and Russian forces could attack Ukrainian territory from north of Kyiv,
according to two people familiar with the conversation who were not authorized
to comment publicly. While concerns rise about an invasion, Ukraine is already
beset by conflict. Following the 2014 ouster of a Kremlin-friendly president in
Kyiv, Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and backed an insurgency in the
country's eastern industrial heartland. Fighting between Ukrainian forces and
Russia-backed rebels has killed over 14,000 people, and efforts to reach a
settlement have stalled.
Putin Tells Macron that West 'Ignored' Russia's Security
Concerns
Agence France Presse/Friday, 28 January, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron
Friday that the West had ignored Moscow's security concerns over NATO expansion,
the Kremlin said. "The US and NATO responses did not take into account Russia's
fundamental concerns including preventing NATO's expansion and refusing to
deploy strike weapons systems near Russia's borders," Putin told Macron,
according to a readout of their call published by the Kremlin.
US to Respond 'Decisively' if Russia Invades Ukraine,
Biden Tells Zelenskiy
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 January, 2022
US President Joe Biden pledged support for Ukraine in its confrontation with
Russia during a phone call Thursday with his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr
Zelensky, the White House said. Biden has been leading attempts to build a
united Western front against Russian military pressure on Ukraine, which has
angered Moscow by seeking to integrate with the West. More than 100,000 Russian
troops are massed on Ukraine's borders, AFP reported. In the call with Zelensky,
Biden "reaffirmed the readiness of the United States along with its allies and
partners to respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine," a readout
from the White House said. Biden "underscored the commitment of the United
States to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity."In the call, Biden
said Washington is "exploring additional macroeconomic support to help Ukraine's
economy amidst pressure resulting from Russia's military build-up," the
statement said, without going into detail. Addressing Ukrainian criticism over
the decision to call on US citizens to leave Ukraine, Biden told Zelensky that
the embassy "remains open and fully operational." While expressing support for
talks this week where Ukraine and Russia recommitted to a tense ceasefire in the
disputed east of the country, Biden promised that diplomatic deals would not be
cut behind Ukraine's back, saying "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."In a
tweet, Zelensky said he and the US president had "a long phone conversation" and
that they "discussed recent diplomatic efforts on de-escalation and agreed on
joint actions for the future."Zelensky said he thanked Biden for US weapons
deliveries and that "possibilities for financial support to Ukraine were also
discussed."Meanwhile, Russia’s top diplomat said Friday that Moscow will not
start a war but warned that it wouldn’t allow the West to trample on its
security interests amid fears it is planning to invade Ukraine. “There won’t be
a war as far as it depends on the Russian Federation, we don’t want a war,”
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a live interview with Russian radio
stations. “But we won’t let our interests be rudely trampled on and
ignored.”Tensions have soared in recent weeks, and the United States and its
NATO allies worry that a buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops near
Ukraine signals that Moscow intends to attack the ex-Soviet state. Russia has
repeatedly denied having any such plans, but has demanded that NATO promise
Ukraine will never be allowed to join and that the alliance roll back
deployments of troops and military equipment in Eastern Europe.The US and NATO
formally rejected those demands this week, though Washington outlined areas
where discussions are possible, offering hope that there could be a war to avoid
war.
US Refers Ukraine Crisis to UN Security Council
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 January, 2022
The United States said it has called for an open meeting of the UN Security
Council next Monday to address the crisis around Ukraine due to what it called
"threatening behavior" by Russia. "More than 100,000 Russian troops are deployed
on the Ukrainian border and Russia is engaging in other destabilizing acts aimed
at Ukraine, posing a clear threat to international peace and security and the UN
Charter," Washington's United Nations envoy Linda Thomas-Greenfield said
Thursday in a statement. "As we continue our relentless pursuit of diplomacy to
de-escalate tensions," she added, the 15-member Security Council "must squarely
examine the facts and consider what is at stake for Ukraine, for Russia, for
Europe, and for the core obligations and principles of the international order
should Russia further invade Ukraine."With fears rising that Russia could invade
its neighbor, a former Soviet state, Thomas-Greenfield said the council faced a
"crucial" matter for international peace and security: "Russia's threatening
behavior against Ukraine and the build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders
and in Belarus."She added: "This is not a moment to wait and see. The Council's
full attention is needed now, and we look forward to direct and purposeful
discussion on Monday." As one of the five permanent members of the Security
Council, Russia has veto power over any United Nations resolution brought to the
council, AFP reported. But Thomas-Greenfield said the meeting will be more of an
opportunity to "expose Russia" for its actions and isolate the Kremlin for its
aggressive posture regarding Ukraine. "And while they do have the veto power,
their isolation will be felt if the Security Council brings this, and we present
a united front against the Russians," the American envoy said in an interview on
Romanian Public Television. "I don't think any country in the Security Council
will sit back and say it's OK for Russia to invade the borders of another
country." Originally the United States had hoped to hold the Security Council
meeting on Friday, according to diplomats. But they said they agreed to push it
to Monday so as not to interfere with a scheduled Friday phone call between
French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
In a major narrative shift, Erdogan marks Holocaust,
welcomes 'new chapter' with Israel
AFP/The Arab Weekly/January 28/2022
In a conspicuous shift from previous anti-Israeli narratives, Turkey
commemorated, Thursday, the International Holocaust Remembrance Day, while
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan anticipated a "new chapter" in relations with the
Jewish state with Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s visit to Turkey next month.
Turkish Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun Tweeted, "On
International Holocaust Remembrance Day, I respectfully remember all victims of
that genocide."During an event organised by the Turkish presidency to mark the
anniversary, the 125-metre Atakule, an iconic tower in the Turkish capital
Ankara was illuminated. #WeRemember and #Hatirliyoruz messages were displayed on
screens at the tower’s main entrance. “On the occasion of the International
Holocaust Remembrance Day, we commemorate with respect millions of Jews, Roma
people, disabled persons as well as targeted minorities and groups who were
systematically murdered by the Nazi regime and its collaborators,” said the
Turkish foreign ministry in a statement it issued Thursday, emphasising the role
of Turkey as a "safe haven" to Jews during the Holocaust. “A considerable number
of Jews were saved from being sent to concentration camps thanks to the
determination of the Turkish Government and the remarkable efforts of Turkish
diplomats,” said the ministry. Turkey watchers said the Turkish high level
commemoration of the Holocaust is intended to soothe relations with Israel a few
weeks before an official visit by Israeli President Isaac Herzog, especially
since Erdogan sees high economic stakes in the trip. "This visit could open a
new chapter in relations between Turkey and Israel," Erdogan said in an
interview with Turkey's NTV channel, adding that he was "ready to take steps in
Israel's direction in all areas, including natural gas"
In recent months, the two countries have been working on a rapprochement, with
Erdogan holding telephone talks with Herzog and other Israeli leaders.
The Turkish strongman had already said last week he was prepared to work with
Israel on reviving an old project to pipe Mediterranean gas to European clients
via Turkey. His remarks came after the United States reportedly dropped support
for a rival pipeline project involving Israel and Turkey's historic rival
Greece. Turkey had strongly opposed the project, which was supported by the
former administration of US president Donald Trump. Erdogan told Herzog during a
phone call last November that the continuation of contact and dialogue between
Turkey and Israel was in their "mutual interest", according to the Turkish
presidency. Erdogan also said Turkish-Israeli relations were "important for
security and stability in the Middle East." Although diplomatic and economic
relations have been maintained by the two countries throughout the years, events
in the Hamas-ruled Gaza strip have occasionally sparked tensions between Ankara
and the Jewish state. Erdogan’s posturing at times spilled over to the already
frayed relations with the United States and other parts of the world. Talking
about US President Joe Biden, last May, during the Israeli attacks on Gaza, he
said: “You are writing history with your bloody hands,”. He also condemned
Austria for "hanging the Israeli terror state’s flag". The Turkish government,
experts say, hopes to build better relations with influential quarters in
Washington, including major Jewish organisations and the powerful pro-Israel
lobby, in order to contain hostile lobbies, such as those linked to Armenian and
Greek pressure groups in the US. Analysts say Erdogan's special commemoration of
the Holocaust also aims to improve his international image amid criticism of his
intolerant moves at home against critics and his aggressive policies in the
region. The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution in 2005 establishing
International Holocaust Remembrance Day as an annual commemoration. About 6
million European Jews and millions of other people were killed by the Nazis and
their collaborators. Some 1.5 million were children.
UN Says Syria Prison Attack Shows Need to Deal with IS
Detainees
Associated Press/Friday, 28 January, 2022
The attack by Islamic State militants on a Syrian prison holding around 3,000 of
its fighters and about 700 children is a predictable tragedy spotlighting the
need for urgent international action to deal with those allegedly linked to the
extremist group in prisons and camps in the country's northeast, the U.N.
counter-terrorism chief said. Undersecretary-General Vladimir Voronkov told the
U.N. Security Council that the Islamic State group "has been highlighting and
calling for jail breaks," and "there have been previous instances in Syria and
elsewhere in the world."Most of the men, women and children with alleged links
to IS who are held in Syrian prisons and camps "have never been charged with a
crime, yet remain in prolonged detention, uncertain of their fate," the head of
the U.N. Office of Counter-Terrorism said. Using the Arabic acronym for the IS
extremist group, he said, "It is a reminder also of why Da'esh continues to
embed itself in Syria.".Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has warned that the
threat from Da'esh is growing, including in Syria where Voronkov said it is
organized in small cells "hiding in desert and rural areas, while they move
across the border between Iraq and Syria to avoid capture." The latest incident
at the Gweiran Prison, also known as al-Sinaa, located in the northeastern city
of Hassakeh, is the biggest by IS militants since the fall of the group's
"caliphate" that once spanned significant parts of Syria and neighboring Iraq in
2019. Voronkov said the fighting also affected the civilian population and
resulted in the escape of an unknown number of fighters for the Islamic State,
also known as ISIL.
U.S.-backed Kurdish forces said Wednesday they had taken control of the last
section of the prison controlled by IS militants and freed a number of child
detainees they said had been used as human shields, but Voronkov said the
fighting was "ongoing."The counter-terrorism chief said he was "appalled" by
reports that children, who should never have been held in military detention,
were used as human shields. "Although the group's barbarism should come as no
surprise, these children have been left prey to be used and abused in this way,"
he said. Voronkov reiterated his call for countries to repatriate alleged IS
fighters and their families in prisons and camps in northeastern Syria. "The
repatriation of third country nationals from Syria and Iraq remains a major
priority for the United Nations and we stand ready as a reliable partner to
member states in responding to these challenges," he said. "Da'esh's attempts to
break its fighters freed from prison underlines the need to bring them to
justice as soon as possible, and ensure accountability to break the cycle of
violence."U.N. special envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen told the Security Council
on Wednesday that the IS prison attack "brings back terrible memories of the
prison breaks that fueled the original rise of ISIL in 2014 and 2015."
"I see this as a clear message to use all of the importance of uniting to combat
the threat of internationally-proscribed terrorist groups -- and to resolve the
broader conflict in which terrorism inevitably thrives," Pedersen said. Russia
called for the briefing on the prison attack and its deputy ambassador, Dmitry
Polyansky, accused the United States of saying it abides by international
humanitarian law which calls for protection of civilians in armed conflicts but
using its air force and armored vehicles to clear the prison of IS fighters. He
said the United States ignored "measures to protect civilians" at the prison and
elsewhere, including U.S. airstrikes in Baghouz, Syria in March 2019 that he
said killed at least 80 civilians. Polyansky also accused the U.S. of illegally
occupying Syria's northeast and "looting oil." U.S. deputy ambassador Richard
Mills countered, accusing Russia of turning the council meeting "into a
rhetoric-driven mass of disinformation and -- frankly -- lies about the U.S.
role in Syria." He said American forces are in the northeast as part of a
coalition "for the sole purpose of continuing the fight" against IS extremists.
He said the Baghouz attacks are under investigation by the U.S. Defense
Department in response to media reporting, stressing that if there were a
similar Russian airstrike that tragically killed civilians "there would be no
independent press to report on it, since there is very little Russian opposition
available to raise the issue."Mills said the prison attack in Hassakeh
underscores the threat IS continues to pose in Syria as well as the risk of
holding IS detainees "in makeshift facilities in the region indefinitely."He
called on member states to support efforts by the coalition to ensure that
detainees "are safely and humanely housed in accordance with international
standards."
North Korea Confirms Missile Tests as Kim Inspects
'Important' Munitions Factory
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 28 January, 2022
North Korea test-fired two different weapons systems this week, state media said
Friday, while highlighting Kim Jong Un's inspection of an "important" munitions
factory. Pyongyang has conducted six weapons tests in January, including firing
hypersonic missiles, doubling down on Kim's call to build "military muscle" with
one of the most intense single-month barrages on record while ignoring US offers
of talks, AFP said. The official Korean Central News Agency said the Tuesday
test involved long-range cruise missiles that hit a "target island 1,800 km
away" in the Sea of Japan. Thursday's launch of "tactical guided missiles",
meanwhile, was to test "the explosive power of the conventional warhead," KCNA
said. The flurry of tests follows Kim re-avowing his commitment to military
modernization at a key party speech in December. Washington imposed new
sanctions in response, prompting anger in Pyongyang, which last week hinted it
could abandon a years-long, self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range
tests. On Friday, KCNA ran photographs showing Kim, wearing his usual long black
leather jacket, surrounded by uniformed officials -- their faces pixellated --
inspecting a munitions factory that produces "a major weapon system". Kim said
"the factory holds a very important position and duty in modernizing the
country's armed forces," KCNA added. "Pyongyang seems to have the evasion of
sanctions in mind -- blurring their faces to keep them from the sanctions list
down the road," said Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the private
Sejong Institute. The reports did not mention if Kim attended this week's
weapons tests, but a separate news item noted his inspection of a vegetable farm
close to the site of the Thursday missile launch.
Signs of progress -
The January launches are all part of North Korea's five-year plan to "upgrade
its strategic arsenal," Hong Min, of the Korea Institute for National
Unification in Seoul, told AFP. "The cruise missiles fired Tuesday are an
extension of the same type of missiles fired [in tests] last September, with
improvements in distance and speed." The string of tests is also a response to
South Korea's efforts to upgrade its own weapons systems, with successful
launches in 2021 of supersonic and new submarine-launched ballistic missiles, he
added. "The North is showing it's also developing missiles to counter what the
South has on hand," Hong said. The sanctions-busting tests come at a delicate
time in the region, with Kim's sole major ally, China, set to host the Winter
Olympics next month and South Korea gearing up for a presidential election in
March. Domestically, North Korea is preparing to celebrate the 80th anniversary
of the birth of late leader Kim Jong Il in February, and the 110th birthday of
founder Kim Il Sung in April. The need to celebrate such "prominent
anniversaries" helps explain the recent string of tests, said US-based security
analyst Ankit Panda. "We should expect a bumpy first half of the year," he told
AFP. Panda said it was also possible that coronavirus concerns had forced North
Korea to modify its usual winter training schedule, prompting a shift to missile
tests to ensure "positive propaganda" domestically. "This could be all the more
important at a time when the national economy is doing poorly and agricultural
output may threaten famine-like conditions," he added. The impoverished North,
reeling economically from a self-imposed coronavirus blockade, recently
restarted cross-border trade with China. The fact that state media covered Kim's
visit to a vegetable farm on page one, and the munitions factory inspection on
page two, is significant, Rachel Minyoung Lee of the Stimson Center told AFP.
"The message here is that the focus remains on the economy, despite the
increased rhetoric on the US and weapons tests," she said.
Canada condemns North Korea’s ballistic missiles
launches
January 28, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Global Affairs Canada today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns North Korea’s launches of ballistic missiles on
January 27, which poses a direct threat to international and regional peace and
security.
“North Korea has now tested 10 missiles since the beginning of the year, most of
which violate United Nations Security Council resolutions. These repeated
actions clearly demonstrate North Korea’s blatant disregard of its international
obligations. We call on North Korea to respond to repeated offers to return to
negotiations. Dialogue and diplomacy represent the only path to security,
stability and prosperity for all people in the region.
“Canada urges North Korea to take concrete steps toward the complete, verifiable
and irreversible dismantlement of its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic
missile programs. To that end, Canada supports international and regional
efforts to constrain North Korea’s provocative actions and reinforce security in
the Indo-Pacific region.”
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 28-29/2022
Erdoğan's Neo-Ottoman Ambitions Turning Eastward
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/January 28, 2022
Obsessed with reviving Turks' imperial days of glory, Erdoğan is turning to
Turkey's east to create a pan-Turkic/Islamist strategic alliance consisting of
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with part-time, tactical alliances with Iran,
Qatar and Bangladesh.
The idea is to bring together three Muslim nations: NATO member Turkey;
Azerbaijan with its rich hydrocarbon resources and growing military
capabilities; and Pakistan with its nuclear weapons.
It is not a coincidence that Erdoğan has visited Azerbaijan more than 20 times
during his presidency.
Ankara appears to hope that the U.S. exit from Afghanistan has created space for
the leadership role of Turkey and Pakistan.
It all looks promising. Except it is not.
The Turkey-led move to upgrade Turkic-speaking states' cooperation into a
political unit that could weaken Beijing's and Moscow's influence in Central
Asia will no doubt come under close Chinese and Russian scrutiny.
In theory, Iran is Turkey's "Muslim brother." In reality, it is (Sunni) Turkey's
(Shia) sectarian adversary, historical rival and cross-border contender in Shia-majority
Iraq and Shia-ruled Syria.
And, finally, Russia. Azerbaijan is still more of a Russian turf, than a Turkish
one. More Azeris speak Russian than those who love to roar the Turkic slogan
"one nation, two states." Pakistan remains China's strongest ally and appears
happy to consider itself Chinese territory.
Obsessed with reviving Turks' imperial days of glory, Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan is turning the east to create a pan-Turkic/Islamist strategic
alliance consisting of NATO member Turkey; Azerbaijan with its rich hydrocarbon
resources and growing military capabilities; and Pakistan with its nuclear
weapons. Pictured: Erdogan (right) and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan meet
in Ankara, Turkey on January 4, 2019. (Photo by Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images)
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's ambitious neo-Ottoman policy calculus
has earned Turkey unprecedented international isolation. Turkey won the title of
being the world's only country that was sanctioned by all of the United States,
Russia and the European Union in the past five years. Turkey's negotiations for
full membership in the EU have come to a halt and the European Council has
started infringement procedures against NATO's only Muslim member state.
Obsessed with reviving Turks' imperial days of glory, Erdoğan is turning to
Turkey's east to create a pan-Turkic/Islamist strategic alliance consisting of
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, with part-time, tactical alliances with Iran,
Qatar and Bangladesh.
The idea is to bring together three Muslim nations: NATO member Turkey;
Azerbaijan with its rich hydrocarbon resources and growing military
capabilities; and Pakistan with its nuclear weapons.
The slogan "one nation, two states" has gained momentum particularly after
Turkey's military and logistical support to Azerbaijan during the
Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020, which ended up with major Azeri gains over
Armenia. Azerbaijan has become an increasingly demanding customer of
Turkish-made weapons systems. Turkey has invited Azerbaijan and Pakistan to its
TF-X program, an ambitious plan to build a new generation of an indigenous
fighter aircraft.
Turkey's arms sales to Azerbaijan have surged in recent years. In 2020,
Turkish-made defense and aerospace exports to Azerbaijan increased six-fold.
Similarly, between 2016 and 2019, Turkey became Pakistan's fourth-largest arms
supplier, surpassing the U.S., while Pakistan became Turkey's third-biggest arms
market.
In 1988, Turkey and Pakistan established a Military Consultative Group aiming to
strengthen military and defense procurement relations. As cooperation deepened,
the group expanded and evolved into the High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council
(HLSCC). In early 2020, Erdoğan and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan
co-chaired the sixth session of HLSCC and signed 13 memorandums of understanding
(MOUs), five of them related to the defense industry.
Under one contract, Turkey would build and sell four multi-purpose corvettes to
the Pakistani Navy. Earlier, in 2018, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) signed
a $1.5 billion contract to sell a batch of 30 T129 attack helicopters to
Pakistan.
It is not a coincidence that Erdoğan has visited Azerbaijan more than 20 times
during his presidency. In September 2021, the Azerbaijani, Turkish, and
Pakistani militaries carried out an eight-day-long joint military drill in Baku,
dubbed "Three Brothers - 2021." Throughout 2021, Ankara, Baku, and Islamabad
have discussed ways to bolster trade, investment, transport, banking and tourism
after signing the Islamabad Declaration that aims to deepen economic interaction
between the three Muslim nations.
To have political clout in Afghanistan's future, Turkey is working closely with
its staunch Gulf ally, Qatar. In early December, Erdoğan and Qatar's Emir Sheikh
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani signed 12 MOUs across various fields, including the
military, healthcare, tourism, and education sectors, among others. Qatar's
foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, explained, "Qatar
will work with ally Turkey and Taliban officials to ensure that Kabul's
international airport, the site of chaotic scenes after the Taliban takeover,
continues to function."
Ankara appears to hope that the U.S. exit from Afghanistan has created space for
the leadership role of Turkey and Pakistan. Some scholars agree.
"For 20 years, we've had the U.S. in the region as an extra-regional force, but
with the boots on the ground. And now that they have left there is a political
vacuum ... There are geopolitical dynamics," said Rabia Akhtar, who leads the
Centre for Security Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) at the University of
Lahore. "Pakistan is right at the heart of it. And it is not only Pakistan, but
it is also Iran, it is Turkey."
On December 23, after a 10-year hiatus, the first freight train from Pakistan to
Turkey through Iran, named the Islamabad-Istanbul rail service, departed. It was
a major boost to the trading capabilities of the three founders of the Economic
Cooperation Organization. The move came after several years in which the U.S.
followed a policy of "maximum pressure" against Iran to isolate the country by
severing all modes of international trade with the Islamic Republic.
Earlier in December, Iran, Azerbaijan and Georgia reached an agreement on
establishing a transit route connecting the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea. This
transit route can potentially link with the Islamabad-Istanbul rail service and
further boost connectivity in the region, given that Pakistan and Turkey are
both close allies of Azerbaijan in addition to having strong trade relations
with Iran.
It all looks promising. Except it is not.
Take, for example, the Turkish-Pakistani deal for T129 attack helicopters deal.
This sale has not moved forward because TAI has failed to secure U.S. export
licenses for the contract. The T129 is produced under license from the
Italian-British company AgustaWestland. It is powered by engines made by LHTEC,
which is a joint venture between the U.S. firm Honeywell and the British company
Rolls-Royce.
In short, the Turkish-Pakistani military deal became a casualty of a Turkish-U.S.
dispute over Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile
system.
Then there is China. Following the Taliban takeover, China was the first foreign
country to pledge emergency humanitarian aid to Afghanistan. Security on China's
western frontiers, and for its Belt and Road projects in Central Asia and
Pakistan, is essential for Beijing. It also needs a favorable security system in
the region to protect its economic interests. The traditional China-Pakistan
alliance is evolving into a Chinese-Pakistani alliance in Afghanistan where
there may be only a too-limited role for Turkey. "There is likely to be deeper
strategic cooperation between China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran, on
counterterrorism efforts and crackdown on illegal drug trade," said Mercy A. Kuo,
executive vice president at Pamir Consulting.
China has also been traditionally suspicious of covert Turkish governmental
support for its Turkic-Muslim minority, the Uyghurs, whom the Chinese Communist
Party views as a fundamental security threat. Earlier this year, the Cooperation
Council of Turkic Speaking States, also known as the Turkic Council, changed its
name to the Organisation of Turkic States, adding to Chinese (and Russian)
suspicions over potential pan-Turkic separatism. The Turkey-led move to upgrade
Turkic-speaking states' cooperation into a political unit that could weaken
Beijing's and Moscow's influence in Central Asia will no doubt come under close
Chinese and Russian scrutiny.
Then there is the Iranian ambiguity. The "Three Brothers - 2021" military
exercises in September sparked heightened tensions between Azerbaijan and Iran
as the Islamic Republic perceived it as a security threat, particularly due to
Pakistan's involvement. In response, on October 1, the Iranian military kicked
off its own military exercise, code-named "Fatehan Khaybar," near Iran's border
with Azerbaijan. Shortly after these military drills, Azerbaijan closed down in
Baku a mosque and an office operated by the representative of Iran's Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tehran is also faced with the threat of ethno-nationalistic separatist
tendencies among its own Azeri Turkic population. The Turkic minority in Iran,
the largest, is estimated at 14-20 million people in a country of 84 million
people total.
Another Azeri-Iranian friction is about reconstruction contracts after the most
recent Nagorno-Karabakh war. Tehran has been disappointed by Baku's generous
awards of construction projects to Turkish or Pakistani companies instead of
Iranian bidders.
In theory, Iran is Turkey's "Muslim brother." In reality, it is (Sunni) Turkey's
(Shia) sectarian adversary, historical rival and cross-border contender in Shia-majority
Iraq and Shia-ruled Syria.
Finally, Azerbaijan is still more of a Russian turf than a Turkish one. More
Azeris speak Russian than those who love to roar the Turkic slogan "one nation,
two states." Pakistan remains China's strongest ally and appears happy to
consider itself Chinese territory.
Erdoğan's pan-Turkic/Islamist ambition will be good for both Russian and Chinese
interests: it will mean further Turkish engagement eastward and further
weakening its already-strained ties with Western institutions, most notably with
NATO. Moscow and Beijing will no doubt be able to control any foul play by the
infant Turkic/Muslim bloc.
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Russia and Ukraine: The Sword and the Shield
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 28/2022
By the time you read this article, Russian troops may have entered Ukraine or
even captured its capital Kiev in a Blitzkrieg that would have made Field
Marshal von Paulus green with envy. Or, maybe you would witness nothing but more
sabre rattling by Vladimir Putin.
The two contrasting possibilities, even if one is closer to a probability,
illustrate the fact that no one knows what Putin, the consummate poker player
keeping his cards close to his chest, has in mind.
At the risk of ending up with egg on my face, I belong to the group who think
there would be no full-scale invasion. To back that assertion one could cite
three reasons.
The first is that Ukraine isn’t such a pushover that some Western analysts
believe. It has a ready fighting force of around 250,000 with around 900,000
reservists. In addition tens of thousands of Ukrainians who are citizens of
European and North American countries and who have some military experience have
been organized in a second-tier reserve for their original homeland. To be sure,
Russia has twice as many troops ready to fight and double the number of
reservists that Ukraine boasts. It also enjoys superiority in the number of war
planes, tanks and armored vehicles. However, Russian forces have numerous
commitments. They have to guard Crimea, annexed in 2014, keep a high profile in
Chechnya and Dagestan, show the flag close to Belarus, guard the endless
frontiers with China, keep friendly despots in power in Turkmenistan,
Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, project power in Iran and, in a different
context in Syria, stroll in Transcaucasia and maintain special units for a
possible, if mythical, clash with NATO. Even then, conquering Ukraine wouldn’t
be a cake-walk, if any war ever is.
Next, Ukraine does not have any natural resources that Russia might covet.
Between the 18th and 20th centuries, Ukraine, with its wheat-rich prairies, was
the bread basket of the Tsarist Empire and, thanks to the Cossack element in its
population, a fertile recruiting grant for elite mercenary fighters.
Those two factors, along with the fact that Kiev was the historic birthplace of
what was to become the Russian “ race”, if such a term has any meaning now,
gives Ukraine a special status in the average Russian’s imagination.
All that, however, has faded into historic memory. Ukraine (Frontier) or the
Ukraine (The Frontier as Russians insist on calling it) is little more than a
chunk of territory. And that is something that Russia, at least since shaking
off the Mongol yoke, has not lacked. Solzhenitsyn liked to say that, having
bitten more land that it could chew, Russia is “choking on territory.”On the eve
of the fall of the Soviet Empire, he advised Russians to get rid of their
imperial possessions. In that he was echoing Khomiakov, the poet and prophet of
pan-Slavism who saw Russia as the new standard-bearer of Christianity (The Third
Rome), seeking conquest of human souls rather than chinks of territory. The
third element in our belief that invading Ukraine today may have little
justification for Russia is the loss of its historic role as “the shield of the
empire.” Kutuzov, the Russian general who defeated Napoleon, liked to say that
Russia was his sword and Ukraine the shield. But even if that was not always
true. The Ukrainian “shield” didn’t prevent Bonaparte from reaching Moscow and
burning it. Nor did Operation Barbarossa, launched by Hitler, stop at “The
Frontier.” Even worse, when needed, Russia was ready to drop “the shield” and
run to the steppes. The Treaty of Tilsit in 1815 offered a foretaste of that and
the Brest-Litovsk deal signed by Trotsky with Imperial Germany in the First
World War made Ukraine looks more like a sacrificial lamb than shield.
But who is going to invade Russia today?
Putin’s propaganda tries to portray the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) as the putative invader. At the same time he makes much of Russia’s money
out of selling oil and gas to NATO members in Europe who, in turn, allow his
money to be nested in their banks. As there has never been a war without at
least some outline of an objective to be achieved it would be wise to ask what
NATO could gain from invading Russia via Ukraine.
For decades NATO’s raison d’etre was to counter the Warsaw Pact led by the
Soviet Union. But the Warsaw Pact has long ceased to exist and NATO members have
massively scaled down resources and intellectual energies allocated to the
alliance. In fact, under President Barack Obama, the US treated NATO as an
encumbrement while under President Joe Biden the US has started concocting a
parallel alliance with a few nations in the Anglo-sphere.
Moreover Russia, as the USSR, was closely associated in building a new world
order after the Second World War and invited to join the Marshall Plan and NATO
offers that Stalin refused. The Helsinki Accord towards the end of the Cold War,
signaled Russia’s change of view on NATO from an existential threat to an
instrument of diplomatic and cultural pressure. After the Cold War, Russia
reached a number of cooperation accords with NATO and endorsed US-led military
intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Putin tries to pose as a potential victim of a non-existent aggression. By doing
so, he hopes to garner some sympathy at home and in other places where
anti-American shibboleths provide the last refuge of assorted scoundrels.
It is with the same narrative victimhood that he tries to peddle his shenanigans
as “action to protect kith and kin”. Although not specifically recognized
international law or the Vienna and Geneva Conventions dealing with armed
conflict, that principle could enjoy a certain degree of moral legitimacy. But
even then, it won’t apply to Ukraine as the Kiev-based state isn’t persecuting
any ethnic Russians or adepts of the Orthodox Church. By all accounts a majority
of Ukrainians wish to distance themselves from Russia to get closer to Western
European democracies. They may be wrong in that but they certainly have as much
right to exercise their national sovereignty as any other member of the United
Nations.
Putin seems to be dreaming of a cordon sanitaire for Russia, one that is more of
a cultural-political shield rather than a glacis in military terms. He wants
Russia surrounded by Finlandized countries from China to the Caspian Basin, the
Middle East and east and Central Europe.
Rather than threatening invasion, Putin should try to make his Russia so
attractive that Ukrainians and others wish to choose it as a model rather than
looking to old Western democracies. That, however, means that Russia must change
and deal with its centuries-long identity crisis between European aspirations
and Asiatic fears.
Taxi Driver Valdimir Putin’s Revenge!
Mamdouh al-Muhainy/Asharq Al-Awsat/January 28/2022
Ninety-year-old Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissenger was asked what
keeps him up at night. He didn’t hesitate: “I worry about China. I worry that we
won’t manage to integrate it into the international order.” The bad news is that
it is not just China that wants out of the global liberal world order but Russia
as well.
To be more precise, these two powers have been excluded from the very beginning,
and they were not consulted on the foundations of this global regime that was
designed to suit the US- European alliance. They are taking a somewhat justified
revenge for a historical injustice, and President Putin has spoken about this,
announcing the death of the liberal order on several occasions. It made a taxi
driver out of him, as he recently said, discussing the bitter memories offensive
to Russia and his prestige.
This massive clash takes its clearest form in Ukraine. A Financial Times
extended essay, Russia and China’s Plans for a New World Order, explains Russia
and China’s desire to end the US hegemony that has been suffocating them once
and for all. For the first time, we see Putin and Xi Jinping form this kind of
alliance, putting all their differences aside to confront the only liberal
enemy.
The rulers of Moscow and Beijing agree that the West’s ultimate goal is forcing
regime change in their two countries by exploiting principles like human rights
and democracy. It is, the way they see it, a dagger that will kill their regimes
by a thousand cuts. And although their two countries were supportive of
revolutionary movements around the world in the past, they are now putting down
the color revolutions, as they did in Ukraine, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and elsewhere.
The two men’s theory: These are revolutions secretly orchestrated by the
Americans and Europeans; thus, they must be put down swiftly and denied the
chance to reemerge. What happened in Kazakhstan is the latest example of this
defensive strategy, as Russia intervened decisively. They also agree that
allowing Ukraine to shift westward easily would mean Taiwan is next. The latter
two countries are not significant themselves, but losing them would be a
disaster. It would mean the expansion of the Western system at their expense,
reducing their influence and weakening them. And so, it is not bizarre that
Putin decided to deploy 100,000 troops on the border with his neighbor Ukraine,
threatening to invade if it joins NATO; the same applies to China’s angry
response to Western statements in support of Taiwan.
Now, the conflict resembles walking next to a cliff, but it will shape the world
for decades to come. The US rise after the Second World War coincided with the
establishment of international institutions, from the World Bank to the World
Trade Organization, which aligned with its vision for a new world. President
Putin believes the United States’ hegemony was strengthened substantially after
the Soviet Union’s collapse. The first glimpses of the US running away with it
were seen in the war to liberate Kuwait when the US brought a diverse group of
countries together, and no countries opposed it. After that, we saw the US go at
it alone in Kosovo, Belgrade, Iraq, and others until it decided to invade
Afghanistan and Iraq, which most clearly illustrated the uni-polar world. One
power alone shapes the world in its image, using- according to the Russians and
Chinese- human rights and freedom as a pretext for intervening militarily when
it suits them.
In Washington’s humiliating withdrawals from Afghanistan and Iraq, its enemies
saw the US world order begin to erode. Thus, a new order must be imposed, and
the old poles of the world order should be reinstated. They will use sheer force
to put down any suspicious movements and build their military capacities, as
China is doing in the South China Sea, where it has set up several military
bases.
The new system favored by Moscow and Beijing would see the world divided into
independent spheres of influence left to each power. Thus, it is important to
remove the United States from its single seat at the top, leaving it only in
control of its sphere of influence, i.e., rendering it a purely Pacific power.
In all this, one sees not only resorting to political power but ideology as
well. Global systems are based on political and cultural ideas that can be
promoted and spread. While the West discusses human rights, the discourse of the
Russians and Chinese suggests that cultures and civilizations are developing on
their own with a variety of frameworks and that foreign agendas must not be
imposed, as this would undermine their stability. The question here is: Can the
Russians challenge today’s world order and engineer its own? It is questionable
whether Russia, which has an economy the size of Italy’s, could establish such a
global system, safeguard it and sustain it. However, this project could succeed
through an alliance with China, with whom Russia converges on one issue
theoretically, politically, and militarily, undermining US influence and making
the unipolar global order a thing of the past.
The population of China exceeds 1.4 billion, soon, it will become the world’s
biggest economy, and its military power is constantly developing. By contrast,
Russia has been responding to harassment from the West and strives to appear
like a superpower despite its limited capacities. The opposite is true for
China, whose grand strategic plan is to grow slowly and steadily, without
sudden, spontaneous military adventurism, as it understands that the march of
history will eventually go in its favor. All of these indications suggest that,
in the coming years and decades, the world will be thrust into major conflicts
between these powers hoping to expand their influence all over the world. As for
Kissinger’s wish that one day, China would be integrated into the Western global
order, that ship has sailed long ago.
Iran is putting down roots in eastern Syria, outcompeting
Assad’s regime in signing up fighters
Sarah Dadouch/The Washington Post/January 28/2022
Growing Iranian influence in strategic Deir al-Zour province aims at projecting
Tehran’s power across the region
BEIRUT — When the Syrian military opened offices in the eastern province of Deir
al-Zour last month to enlist former rebels and repentant army defectors, almost
no one showed up. So few in fact that, according to a local news site, Syrian
security officers had to pull able-bodied passersby inside in hopes of
registering them.
While Syria had promised forgiveness and a fresh start to many young men as part
of broader reconciliation efforts, the initiative has faced a major obstacle:
Iranian-linked militias active in the province have been offering a more
attractive alternative, according to local experts and a former militia member.
Iran has been playing the long game in Deir al-Zour, successfully recruiting
local Syrians to allied militias, providing services the deeply distrusted
government cannot deliver and putting down roots in a strategic province that
could further Tehran’s regional interests even after the Syrian civil war
eventually ends and Iran’s support for President Bashar al-Assad is no longer as
vital.
Iran has been building schools, opening schools and distributing food baskets,
local experts said. It has tried to convert mosques in the Sunni Muslim province
to Shiite Islam, the official religion of Iran, and while few Syrians have
actually converted, the Shiite call to prayer is now heard for the first time.
When a young man named Abu Khadija joined an Iranian-backed militia three years
ago, he wasn’t motivated by religion or ideology, he recalled. He wanted the pay
and benefits. And like many of the young Syrians who join the militias, he saw
them as “the only solution to escape the army,” said Abu Khadija, who spoke on
the condition that his full name not be used, for fear of retaliation.
While the Syrian army in Deir al-Zour pays a monthly salary of 27,000 Syrian
pounds, about $7.50, the Iranian-backed militias offer more than double that,
with even higher pay in places like Bukamal city on the Iraqi border, he said.
Abu Khadija, now 26, said he joined a brigade made up of 100 Syrians who largely
guard Iranian warehouses in Deir al-Zour. They were assigned rotations of 15
days on duty and 15 days off. By contrast, the Syrian army often sends soldiers
far from home for at least two months at a time, with home leaves of only five
days, he said.
The militia ID card entitles the fighters to a monthly food basket, which
includes sugar, cooking oil, rice, canned tuna and beans, he said. The cartons
are emblazoned with a picture of the slain Iranian military leader Qasem
Soleimani, who was assassinated in Iraq by U.S. forces two years ago, and a
label in Arabic and Farsi that says “a gift from the Islamic resistance.”
Cardholders are also offered free flights to Damascus every Monday and Thursday
on Iranian aircraft, and those wanting to visit, for any reason, can register
for the flight a day before.
The ID card not only allowed him to carry a weapon but more importantly, he
said, protects him from being detained or interrogated by the Syrian army, which
is detested and feared by much of the local population.
For much of Syria’s war, Iranian-backed militias have been crucial supporters of
the Syrian government. But in some places, particularly in the east of the
country, they are also competitors for local influence.
Iran has put a priority on consolidating its position in Deir al-Zour province,
with various allied militias essentially taking control over key cities. Most
important, perhaps, is Bukamal, also known as Albu Kamal, situated along the
Euphrates River at the Iraqi border. This city represents a strategic crossing
for Iran, which has sought to establish a “land bridge” — from Iran, across Iraq
and Syria and into Lebanon — allowing for the transfer of military equipment to
Tehran’s allies, most notably the militant Hezbollah movement in Lebanon. The
movement of materiel and fighters along this land bridge gives Iran several
strategic advantages, including a greater ability to confront its nemesis
Israel.
To ensure that this corridor remains in friendly hands, Iran has been conducting
its multipronged campaign to win residents’ support. “The Iranians want to
create a popular base loyal to them in case they have to leave someday,” said
Ammar al-Hamad, a Syria-based analyst specializing in tribal affairs in the east
and northeast of the country.
Myriad militias operate in Deir al-Zour, some aligned with the Syrian government
and its ally Russia in addition to those aligned with Iran. Several of the
Iranian-linked groups are staffed and led locally by Syrians, who receive orders
from more senior Iranian commanders, according to a local activist who goes by
the name Abu Maria. He spoke on the condition that his full name not be
published because of fear for his safety. Abu Maria estimated there are also
about a dozen significant Iranian-aligned militias in the province composed of
foreign fighters, including Iranians as well as Afghans and Pakistanis.
Abu Khadija said residents in his area have largely accepted Iranian hegemony,
mostly because the Iranian-backed militias clearly have more power on the ground
than the Syrian army. Residents even file complaints with Iranian officials when
government soldiers cause problems. “They have more influence than the army,” he
said.
Much of Deir al-Zour’s population is wary of the Syrian army, which is infamous
for committing atrocities during the 10-year civil war. There is no such fear of
the Iranians. “They are trying to win people over, unlike the army,” he said.
“If the army wants something from someone, they break down the front door. The
Iranians don’t do such things.”
Assad and his regime have raided and seized dozens of businesses, even targeting
those that stuck by him
Omar Abu Layla, a native of the area who heads a monitoring network called Deir
Ezzor 24, said, “There is no real power on the ground that is as strong as Iran
in residents’ eyes." Iran is aware of the strong local anti-Shiite sentiments,
he said, but added, “Iran is not stupid: It makes sure it doesn’t gain people’s
enmity.”
Still, sporadic protests against the Iranian presence have broken out on the
opposite side of the Euphrates River, where territory remains outside Syrian
government control and the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces are
in control. The modest protests, usually held by Syrians displaced from other
areas, demand the right to return home and ouster of the Iranians, said Abu
Layla.
As part of the effort to win over the local population, the Iranians have worked
to help improve living conditions. The Jihad al-Binaa organization has been
reconstructing schools, setting up field hospitals and opening preschools in
Deir al-Zour as well as in the cities of Aleppo and Hama elsewhere in
government-controlled parts of Syria, according to local reports.
Meanwhile, the Iranian Cultural Center has been rehabilitating mosques in an
effort to spread Shiite Islam and, during the holy month of Ramadan, held Farsi
language and Iranian history classes, offering financial incentives to families
who finished the course, said Abu Layla. The center has also set up Shiite
shrines to attract pilgrims and paid for repairs to a park destroyed during
hostilities.
*Sarah Dadouch is a Beirut-based Middle East correspondent for The Washington
Post. She was previously a Reuters correspondent in Beirut, Riyadh and Istanbul.
Twitter
Erdogan's war on the SDF
Ali Sarraf/The Arab Weekly/January 28/2022
Those who think that Erdogan's expansionist ambitions are idiotic, considering
US influence in the Middle East or that of the French in Africa, will soon
discover that it is they who are the idiots.
The battles fought by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against the waves of
“jihadists” unleashed by ISIS to free its detainees from Ghweran prison, are
only a first rehearsal for what can happen, both for this prison, which includes
3,500 jihadists, or for other prisons which hold about 12,000 members of
ISIS.These battles were fought while Recep Tayyip Erdogan's army and militias
were attacking SDF positions intending to weaken them and so degrade their
ability to protect these jails. One should not be so naive as to think that the
attacks by ISIS and Erdogan's militias were carried out without prior
coordination.
The SDF, whose main component are Kurds, performs a task akin to protecting the
world from a massive army of terrorists, in a totally hostile environment.
Erdogan wants, basically, to impose his control over the region east of the
Euphrates. From one front line to another, his forces and militias kept pushing
the SDF back until they were left with only the area that falls under the
control of the international coalition forces and US military bases.
While Erdogan's militias claim that they want to overthrow the regime of
President Bashar al-Assad, both Ankara and Damascus consider the Kurds an enemy
which they seek to defeat in order to seize control of the areas ruled by the
Kurdish Autonomous Administration.
Turkish hostility to the Kurds is nothing new. Erdogan is fighting his battle
against the Kurds of Turkey with the same level of ferocity to deprive them of
their political and cultural rights, to say nothing of their national rights. He
prosecutes their representatives in parliament and throws them in jail, not in
retaliation for their electoral performance, which earned them about 12 percent
of the vote, but rather as a push-back against their national aspirations and
their very existence. President Assad's regime has other considerations, because
it fears for its own survival.
On the ground, there is a frantic race between the Assad army and Erdogan's army
to seize the territories which the SDF controls. Assad’s army appears paralysed
due to its weakness and the Russian-imposed restrictions on the participation of
Iranian militias in attacks against areas east of the Euphrates. However,
Erdogan’s army is in a better position, because of its links to the United
States, which it uses for manoeuvring but not for coordination.
When the ISIS assault on Ghweran prison began, the planes and militias of
Erdogan’s army were continuing their attacks against the SDF forces, indicating
that ISIS planned its operations against the prison while the SDF was defending
its positions in “Tal Tamer” and elsewhere.
The links between Erdogan's army and ISIS are not a secret, anyway. Throughout
the years of the caliphate, cross-border trade exchanges provided the terrorists
with all the material they needed. It was also no secret that Turkey continued
to admit ISIS wounded into its hospitals. And when the Kurds managed to liberate
Kobani, the first town on the border between Turkey and the caliphate, Erdogan's
army took their revenge with a series of bombing operations, until that town
fell to the Assad army, accompanied by Russian forces. The Kurds withdrew even
though Kobani ought to have remained an icon for the Kurdish men and women who
liberated it and then set out from it to defeat the caliphate.
Pushing the Kurdish fighters to evacuate Kobani was intended to erase the
symbolic value of the liberation of this town. Symbols are a common enemy of the
Assad army and Erdogan's troops alike. But why would Erdogan's army want to help
ISIS free its prisoners? It is not only the national hatred of the Kurds that is
the cause. It is not only the position of the Kurdish fighters in the Pentagon's
calculations that is the reason. The oil wealth in the east of the Euphrates is
not the sole motive, either.
There is a more important reason than all of these. And it is that the Erdogan
project still needs a fighting force like ISIS to open its path in Syria and
Iraq and with the United States. The liberation of 12,000 jihadists from the
prisons of Hassakeh will provide Erdogan with an army of new Janissaries which
he can push again to the outskirts of Damascus and Baghdad, as was the case in
the years following the announced creation of the caliphate “state”.
American bases will be withdrawn in order to make room for Erdogan's army as an
Atlantic ally. Erdogan will be able to seize the initiative in leading the
"international coalition against ISIS" after the United States has withdrawn
from its military role and limits itself to supporting Erdogan's army.
From this point on, Erdogan, isolated and hated in Washington, Paris, Berlin and
Brussels, will turn into a world champion, simply because he is at the fore in
the pursuit of the ISIS remnants. And he, because of his ideological links with
the organisation, will be able to turn a large part of ISIS jihadists into
mercenaries, sending them not just to Libya but also to other countries on the
African continent, where he is already trying to expand.
Those who think that Erdogan's expansionist ambitions are idiotic, considering
US influence in the Middle East or that of the French in Africa, will soon
discover that it is they who are the idiots.
If we want peace, we should prepare for war
Sir John Jenkins/ Arab News/January 28, 2022
Well, so much for the Biden presidency. Wasn’t it supposed to mark a shift from
the narcissistic disorder of Donald Trump and restore a sensible political
balance both domestically and internationally? Wasn’t the US supposed to be the
adult in the room again, supported by its sober and capable European lieutenants
in Berlin and Paris? How’s that going, Alexa?
Actually, not so well. Joe Biden’s Build Back Better bill is stalled in the
Senate. He has failed to weaken the filibuster. His approval ratings are
collapsing. And, globally, entropy rules. To understand why this has happened
and why it matters, it might be helpful to start by considering the events of
the past fortnight in the Gulf. It is not always the size of the attack that
matters — it is the context and the intent. The Houthis have been firing
missiles at targets in Saudi Arabia for years. However, on Jan. 17, probably for
the first time, they successfully attacked a number of targets in the UAE —
including a petroleum storage facility and Abu Dhabi airport — with a mix of
so-called suicide drones and missiles, all probably Iranian-built and therefore
cheap as chips. A week later, they launched a further salvo at the UAE and Saudi
Arabia. This time, the air defenses seemed to work.
The immediate context for these attacks is the UAE’s involvement in the struggle
against the Houthis. The Emiratis have been pretty effective on the ground. From
the beginning, they operationalized a good human intelligence network. They have
conducted sophisticated combined operations and shown impressive tactical
adaptability. Most recently, it was a UAE-backed Yemeni force, the so-called
Giants Brigade, which was summoned to take the fight to the Houthis in Shabwa, a
key battleground in the protracted fight to dominate terrain and control the
country’s energy resources.
And it is this that seems to represent the immediate cause for the Houthi
attack, which followed their seizure of a UAE-flagged ship in the Red Sea at the
beginning of January — an act of piracy with which we have become all too
familiar. After all, the Houthis probably believe that it was their obduracy
that forced the UAE to withdraw most of its forces from Yemen in 2019. So why
shouldn’t a strike showcasing their ability to attack the UAE’s heartland now
persuade them to stop backing their domestic enemies remotely? This has
certainly been the tenor of Houthi statements, backed by the usual bellicose
noises from Tehran and some of the Shiite militias of Iraq.
It has not worked so far. The Saudis retaliated to the first missile attacks
with airstrikes, which they say killed a senior Houthi general. The Emiratis
attacked and destroyed Houthi launch sites and doubled down on their support for
the Giants Brigade.
War is undoubtedly hell. Sometimes, when serious interests are at stake, it is
hard to see any obvious alternative. But the aim must always be to achieve a
decisive victory with the minimum casualties and in the shortest time possible.
In the case of Yemen, this has not happened. And the strategic balance remains
strikingly skewed. All the years of aerial bombardment — plus constant UN
activism and steady international condemnation — have signally failed to bring
the Houthis to the negotiating table. They, in return, can inflict damage at
relatively little cost. Withdrawal is unthinkable. But victory remains elusive.
So we are collectively faced with an increasingly serious dilemma. This is not
simply about Yemen or indeed Saudi Arabia, the Gulf or the Middle East as a
whole. It is global. The Houthis’ attacks on the UAE are part of a pattern,
whose common factor is Iran. The first combined use of drones and cruise
missiles to strike a regional target was probably in 2018, when Iran hit a
Kurdish Iranian opposition party’s offices in Koya, inside Kurdistan Regional
Government territory in Iraq. Iran had shelled targets inside the KRG before,
whenever they thought the Kurds were doing things they didn’t like. But this was
something different: It flagged up a new capability to combine drones and
missiles — a keystone of Iranian defense doctrine — with unprecedented accuracy.
The same message was evident when Iran and/or its proxies hit Shaybah in 2019
and Abqaiq and Khurais in 2020. In neither case did Iran claim direct
responsibility. Indeed, the Houthis implausibly claimed it was them.
The Houthis’ attacks on the UAE are part of a pattern, whose common factor is
Iran.
Israel, too, has recently been plagued with Iranian-built drones, this time sent
by Hezbollah in Lebanon to reconnoiter targets, mainly along the shared border
but perhaps aiming as far south as Dimona, Israel’s own nuclear site, which
Tehran has specifically threatened to destroy in any future war. Hezbollah was
badly hit in the 2006 conflict with Israel but has been more than reequipped
since then by Iran, which has used its strategic control of territory in Iraq
and Syria to send not just missiles and drones, but also new and more advanced
guidance systems. Hamas has also benefited.
Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, regularly threatens that any new conflict
would be qualitatively different from previous ones, with Israel’s home front
becoming a theater of destruction. Iranian military officials do the same. So do
the Houthis. So indeed do Iraqi militia leaders, who also possess Iranian
missiles and drones and who threatened the UAE a week before the Houthi strike.
The apparent range of the attack on Koya suggested that a similar strike from
the Iraq-Syria border could reach Tel Aviv. The Houthi attack on Abu Dhabi was —
at a range of 1,500 km — not enough to reach Tel Aviv, but was much further than
anything they had attempted before and nearly enough to reach Eilat. It was
certainly enough to reach any target in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and most of
the other Gulf states, including those involved in the Abraham Accords.
Demonstrating a rapidly developing and semi-deniable ability to hit targets at
will in the territories of the West’s friends in the region — and get away with
it — sends a message that Iran and its pals think they are winning. And the more
it happens, the more confident Tehran becomes. It used the financial windfall
the 2015 nuclear deal brought in its train not to relieve domestic economic
pressures, as some had claimed would happen, but to invest in more military
capability. And in the last five years, the Iranians have drawn closer to
Russia, with which it works closely in Syria, and China. Tehran signed a
long-term strategic agreement with Beijing last year and President Ebrahim Raisi
has just been in Moscow to advance a similar pact with Russia. And the three
countries conducted joint naval exercises this month. That makes a mockery of
the Khomeinist slogan: “Neither east nor west.” But it also reflects the
irredeemable hostility toward the West that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has made
the basis of his regime and which only fools think will be lessened if we make
nice.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have made clear their deep unhappiness with
Washington’s coolness toward them, which predates Biden but has been exacerbated
by his administration’s wider behavior on Middle Eastern issues and on
Afghanistan. Although they remain deeply suspicious of Tehran’s intentions, they
have understandably sought to reinsure with overtures to Iran because they think
the US no longer has their back.
In itself, that is highly unlikely to lead to a stable new security order in the
Gulf. Why, after all, would Iran offer serious concessions if it feels no
pressure? There is no prospect of the Chinese or Russians stepping in to replace
the US. Indeed, a degree of localized disorder may be in their interests.
And just as Vladimir Putin noticed and acted upon Barack Obama’s reluctance to
use military force in Syria, so he, Xi Jinping, Khamenei and any number of the
West’s enemies in the Middle East and elsewhere will have noticed the confusion
of the Biden administration, the hypocritical mercantilism of Germany, Macron’s
Napoleonic bluster and the impotence of the EU when faced with real and imminent
danger in Ukraine and elsewhere. As we have repeatedly seen, such as with
Turkey’s (and indeed Israel’s) testing of drone swarms in the recent
Azeri-Armenian conflict, military action is becoming both cheaper and easier to
disguise. That makes it harder to respond. But every failure to do so is just
another small nail in the coffin of the post-1945 global order. Acting as if
that order is divisible helps our enemies and dismays our friends. That is why
little things matter.
This brings us to the negotiations in Vienna. The Iranians probably think they
are on to a winner here too. They have been able to develop their technical
capacity and enrich uranium well beyond the nuclear deal’s limits in the last
three years, making it difficult for the International Atomic Energy Agency to
monitor their activities, while the Biden administration and its European allies
dither. Every week, some representative of the parties claims variously that
time is running out, that serious difficulties remain or that an agreement is
possible if only everyone shows good faith. This doubtless reflects attempts to
control the narrative and gloss over the real tensions that must exist.
Only this week, the State Department’s deputy to Robert Malley, the US special
representative to Iran, resigned, reportedly over a fundamental disagreement on
negotiating tactics. Malley himself suggested to Reuters that an agreement
depended on the release of Americans held hostage by Iran. This has now been
walked back. There is a suggestion that the US will renew its designation of the
Houthis as a terrorist organization, which was unwisely lifted a year ago. Who
knows? Fog reigns.
The Iranians, Russians and Chinese probably think the US is a busted flush
anyway. After all, the Obama administration failed to effectively challenge the
Russian seizure of Crimea in early 2014 and then backed down over Syria.
Individual states — notably including the UK and excluding Germany — are
providing significant material support on Ukraine. But the most the US and EU
seem able to muster as a collective is a blizzard of meaningless (and, in the
case of Biden, confusing) statements, the occasional Zoom consultation — and
perhaps the threat of permanently stationing Bernard-Henri Levy at the
battlefront. At some point, as Iran continues to enrich uranium and rebuild its
centrifuges, a revived nuclear deal will simply become unviable, if it hasn’t
already. We should already be preparing for a different course: The determined
erosion of Iranian capacity to cause mischief and the pushing back of its
influence by proportionate responses to adventurism, the development of
effective defenses against its aggression, sustained support for its opponents,
occasional military force, and robust economic constraints. As the old adage has
it: If you want peace, prepare for war. If we don’t, then war will come anyway.
Then we really are looking at a new world disorder. And it won’t be pretty.
*Sir John Jenkins is a senior fellow at Policy Exchange. Until December 2017, he
was corresponding director (Middle East) at the International Institute for
Strategic Studies, based in Manama, Bahrain, and was a senior fellow at Yale
University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs. He was the British ambassador
to Saudi Arabia until January 2015.