English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 16/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
You are Simon son of John. You are to be called Cephas, the rock
John 01/35-42.: “The next day John again was standing
with two of his disciples, and as he watched Jesus walk by, he exclaimed, ‘Look,
here is the Lamb of God! ’ The two disciples heard him say this, and they
followed Jesus. When Jesus turned and saw them following, he said to them, ‘What
are you looking for?’ They said to him, ‘Rabbi’ (which translated means
Teacher), ‘where are you staying?’ He said to them, ‘Come and see.’ They came
and saw where he was staying, and they remained with him that day. It was about
four o’clock in the afternoon. One of the two who heard John speak and followed
him was Andrew, Simon Peter’s brother. He first found his brother Simon and said
to him, ‘We have found the Messiah’ (which is translated Anointed).He brought
Simon to Jesus, who looked at him and said, ‘You are Simon son of John. You are
to be called Cephas’ (which is translated Peter). the rock”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on January 15-16/2022
Hezbollah, Amal End Boycott of Lebanon’s Cabinet amid Economic Crisis
Investigations against Hezbollah Channel Reporter Resumed by Houthis
Some Relatives of Beirut Port Blast Victims Call for Judge Bitar’s Removal
Corona - MoPh: 6,019 new Corona cases, 14 deaths
Amal Movement, Hezbollah announce decision to attend cabinet sessions to approve
budget, discuss economic recovery plan
Mikati welcomes Amal-Hezbollah statement, says he will call on cabinet to
convene as soon as draft budget is received from...
UNIFIL launches a series of vital projects in Naqoura
Salameh: BDL to Continue Allowing Banks to Buy Dollars at Sayrafa Rate
Hamieh: The airport is not the right place to settle political scores
Ghada Aoun: The judiciary is for strong souls, and we will resist until the last
breath
"Depositor is the sole victim of the banking system," says Abdallah
Lebanon’s young women and men are the future, let's talk to them so they feel
that Lebanon belongs to them
“Ruling authority wastes remaining reserves of depositors' money, buys time,”
tweets Karami
Hbeish Says 'Almost Certain' Hariri Won't Run in Elections
Lebanese Shiite scholar attacks Hezbollah leaders, denounces party’s policies
Réjouissez-vous Libanais et Libanaises, vous êtes occupés./Jean-Marie Kassab/January
15/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
January 15-16/2022
Authorities In Texas are negotiating with man who has apparently taken
hostages at Texas synagogue
Yemen Govt Close to Liberating Marib's Harib District from Houthis
White House: Russia Prepping Pretext for Ukraine Invasion
U.N. Council Demands Houthis Release UAE Ship and Crew
Republicans Call on Biden to Withdraw from ‘Farcical’ Negotiations with Iran
US Veterans Urge Biden Against Releasing Frozen Funds to Iran
Borrell Says Reaching an Accord with Iran is Possible
China Slams US Sanctions on Iran
Jordanian FM: Arab Peace Treaties Not an Alternative to Peace with Palestinians
Syria’s Opposition Hails Ex-officer’s Conviction, Wants Justice to Go Higher
Syrian Regime Forces Launch Anti-ISIS campaign in Deir Ezzor Desert
Hashed intimidation attempt suspected in Baghdad blasts targeting offices of
Sadr allies
In sign of improving ties, UAE plans to ramp up trade with Turkey
Israel sees closer ties between Syria, Gulf states as helping curb Iran's
influence
Sudan’s National Umma Party: UN Mediation Efforts Didn’t Reach Initiative Stage
Canada/Minister Joly to travel to Ukraine, France and Belgium
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
January 15-16/2022
Biden Is Dividing the Country He Promised to Unite/Clive
Crook/Bloomberg/January, 15/2022
Kazakhstan: Echoes of the Autumn of Sorrows/Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat/January,
15/2022
US posture in Syria is risky/Haid Haid/The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022
The Arab world's drama revolution/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/January
15/2022'
Good governance the key to Arab world progress/Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January
15/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on January 15-16/2022
Hezbollah, Amal End Boycott of Lebanon’s Cabinet amid
Economic Crisis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Lebanese groups Hezbollah and Amal said on Saturday they would end a boycott of
cabinet sessions, opening the way for ministers to meet after a three-month gap
that has seen the economy and currency collapse further. The groups, which back
several ministers in a government made up of members from across the political
spectrum, said the decision was driven by a desire to approve the 2022 budget
and to discuss an economic recovery. The groups had been refusing to attend
cabinet sessions in a dispute over the handling of an investigation into the
huge Beirut port blast in 2020.
Investigations against Hezbollah Channel Reporter
Resumed by Houthis
Aden - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
The Houthi Criminal Prosecutor’s Office in Sanaa has restarted investigations
into the journalist and correspondent of the Al-Manar satellite channel, Khalil
Al-Omari, who was previously summoned on charges of communicating with a foreign
state. Al-Manar is a channel affiliated with the Lebanon-based Hezbollah group.
Investigations into Al-Omari were suspended six months ago after mediation from
some Houthi leaders. A Houthi wing spearheaded by Ahmed Hamed, the de facto head
of the coup group’s ruling council in Sanaa, had accused Al-Omari of working for
another party in the militia. Different sections of the Houthi militias have
been known to fight each other over influence and power. Al-Omari said that he
was summoned again by the Criminal Prosecutor’s Office, which specializes in
terrorism and state security cases, to give statements against the background of
his exposé on militia officials smuggling international calls. The reporter
clarified that he froze publishing material he found on the matter out of
respect for the militia leader’s decision to assign the leader Ali Al-Qahoum to
solve the problem and make reparation for the damage. He accused corrupt leaders
within the Houthi group of being behind the trafficking of international calls.
However, he did not mention any names. Last July, Al-Omari was summoned over
charges of communicating with an Arab state. The journalist had earlier
uncovered smuggling of international calls conducted by corrupt members of the
Houthi militia in the Sanaa government. In successive posts on his Facebook
page, Al-Omari said that he had “important and complete information about major
fiber-optic smuggling of international calls.”He uncovered facts about the
Houthi intelligence service’s involvement, which exposed the Ministry of
Communications to significant losses. According to Al-Omari, the illicit calls
were made from the Dar al-Bashair building at the heart of Sanaa. The facility
is operated by the Houthi intelligence service and is infamous for being a black
site for detaining and torturing political dissidents.
Some Relatives of Beirut Port Blast Victims Call for Judge Bitar’s Removal
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Several families of the victims of the Aug. 2020 Beirut port explosion have
requested the removal of the judicial investigator, Judge Tarek Bitar. Members
of the “Constituent Assembly of the Families of the Martyrs, Wounded and Victims
of the Beirut Port Explosion” said after meeting with the head of the Supreme
Judicial Council, Judge Suhail Abboud, that they were “going to request the
dismissal of Judge Bitar from the case in order to serve the cause and achieve
justice to the families of the port’s martyrs.”The gathering represents some
relatives of the victims, after their split from the main committee, as a result
of a dispute over the decisions taken by Bitar. The group’s spokesman, Ibrahim
Hoteit, said: “The policy adopted by the judicial investigator, Judge Tarek
Bitar, is no longer acceptable because it is discretionary and invalid.”He
wondered why Bitar “disregards politicians and military leaders who were aware
of the presence of the ammonium nitrate in the port and did not summon them for
questioning.” The massive explosion at Beirut’s port was caused by a stockpile
of improperly stored ammonium nitrates, which killed at least 216 people and
destroyed several residential areas. The Lebanese government has not convened
since October in wake of a dispute with Hezbollah and Berri’s Amal movement over
Bitar. The two allies have been demanding his removal from the case, accusing
him of bias.
Corona - MoPh: 6,019 new Corona cases, 14 deaths
NNA/January, 15/2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced today the registration of "6019 new infections with the Corona virus,
which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 814,631," adding that
"14 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours."
Amal Movement, Hezbollah announce decision to attend
cabinet sessions to approve budget, discuss economic recovery plan
NNA/January, 15/2022
“In a bid to rule out the false accusations of obstruction and confirm our
utmost keenness on preserving Lebanon, its people and its social security, we
announce our consent to attend the sessions of the Council of Ministers
dedicated to approving the state’s general budget and discussing the economic
recovery plan and everything related to improving the livelihood of the
Lebanese,” indicated a joint statement by Amal Movement and Hezbollah issued
this evening. The statement noted that this decision comes “in wake of the
accelerated events in the country and the internal political and economic crisis
that has developed to an unprecedented level with the huge collapse in the
exchange rate of the Lebanese pound, the decline of the public sector, the
collapse of incomes and the purchasing power of citizens,” and “in response to
the pressing needs of citizens and the call of the economic, professional and
trade union sectors.”
Mikati welcomes Amal-Hezbollah statement, says he will call
on cabinet to convene as soon as draft budget is received from...
NNA/January, 15/2022
In an issued statement by the Media Office of Prime Minister Najib Mikati this
evening, it indicated that, “His Excellency the Prime Minister welcomes the
statement issued by the Amal Movement and Hezbollah regarding the return to
partaking in the sessions of the Council of Ministers, which coincides with the
repeated calls made by the Prime Minister for the participation of all in
bearing national responsibility, especially during this delicate circumstance
that the country is going through, and in a manner that preserves the national
charter which the PM is keen on.”
“The Prime Minister, as previously announced, will call the Council of Ministers
to convene as soon as he receives the draft budget law from the Ministry of
Finance, and he appreciates the efforts made by all ministers to implement what
was stated in the ministerial statement and develop a recovery plan on which the
negotiation process with the International Monetary Fund will be based,” the
statement went on. It concluded by indicating that “the Prime Minister had
contacted His Excellency, President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, and consulted
with him on the prevailing situation.”
Prime Minister Najib Mikati contacted this evening House Speaker Nabih Berri,
with talks centering on the latest political developments.
UNIFIL launches a series of vital projects in Naqoura
NNA/January, 15/2022
The Italian contingent operating within the framework of the United Nations
Interim Force in Lebanon and the UNIFIL Civil Affairs Office, in partnership
with the Naqoura Municipality, launched several vital projects, including a pump
for the artesian well and a 100 KVA generator, in addition to a protection fence
for the well site in the town of Naqoura, in the presence of the Chief of Staff
at UNIFIL’s Western Sector Command, Colonel Rafael Oranno, representing General
Stefano Lagorio, and Mayor Abbas Awada representing the Al-Mansouri Site
Commander, and a number of Municipal Council members in Naqoura, Italian
officers and prominent dignitaries from the region. It is to note that these
projects are the fruit of joint cooperation between the Italian battalion, the
UNIFIL Civil Affairs Office, and the Municipality of Naqoura for the interest of
the local population, in benefitting from underground water resources and
improving the quality of life and services for citizens. Mayor Awada thanked
General Lagorio, the Chief of Staff, the Italian battalion and the UNIFIL Civil
Affairs Office for accomplishing this vital project, praising “the significant
role of the UNIFIL peacekeepers in general and the Italians in particular, which
confirms the extent of the rapprochement between UNIFIL and the local
authorities and the people, and contributes to the development and prosperity of
the region’s economy.”In turn, Colonel Oranno expressed his joy for the
project’s completion, funded by the Italian contingent and the UNIFIL Civil
Affairs Office, stressing "the importance of working as a team and having
concerted efforts to meet the needs of the people in the region.
Salameh: BDL to Continue Allowing Banks to Buy Dollars at
Sayrafa Rate
Naharnet/January, 15/2022
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh announced Friday in a statement that the
Central Bank will continue to allow commercial banks to purchase U.S. dollars
from it at the Sayrafa platform exchange rate. The decision which was taken
Tuesday has apparently led to a major recovery of the Lebanese lira value on the
black market. The dollar was trading for LBP 27,850 on the black market around
5pm Friday, down from around LBP 31,000 the previous day.
Hamieh: The airport is not the right place to settle political scores
NNA/January, 15/2022
Ali Hamieh’s press office responded to the recently circulated news on social
media that planes were exposed to bullets at Beirut airport, one of which led to
a hole under the cockpit of a Greek plane, stressing that the activation of
public facilities for the advancement of Lebanon cannot be achieved in this
manner.
“There is a lot of disregard for Lebanon's reputation, at a time when we are
desperately in need of advancing its facilities," the statement said. "For
transparency purposes and in order not to rush into any denial or confirmation,
we waited for the technical report from the concerned authorities at the
airport, which assured that the aforementioned plane was not exposed to any
bullets. To further confirm, we wrote to specialized agencies in America, who
asserted, as stated in their report sent today, that there was no bullet in said
plane,” the statement affirmed. “As for the news about the Qatari plane’s
accident, it was revealed that a piece of metal was stuck in one of its tires
without resulting in any significant risks, and this may occur at any airport in
the world,” the statement underlined. The Public Works Minister concluded his
statement by emphasizing that “Rafic Hariri International Airport is not the
right place to settle political scores, and this is not how we ensure Lebanon’s
rise, by targeting its facilities which we seek to activate, advance and
increase their revenues, in order to contribute to fortifying the sovereign
decision of Lebanon.”
Ghada Aoun: The judiciary is for strong souls, and we will resist until the last
breath
NNA/January, 15/2022
“Yes, the judiciary was found for the strong souls, not for the weak, nor for
those who fear this leader or that or this authority or that or this rooted
mafia, which has exhausted our poor people with its corruption,” Prosecutor
General Judge Ghada Aoun said via her Twitter account. "We promise you, you
corrupt people, that we will resist until our last breath because we are free
from all bondage to money or status, and because we are loyal to our oath,” she
added.
"Depositor is the sole victim of the banking system," says
Abdallah
NNA/January, 15/2022
Member of the "Democratic Gathering", MP Bilal Abdallah, tweeted today on the
issue of depositors' money, saying: "When it is required to withdraw the
Lebanese pound from the market to reduce inflation, many sides, including the
Central Bank of Lebanon, work to reduce the dollar peg, and this is what
happened yesterday...Thus, it can derived that the opposite is also true: when
we need the dollar, we raise its price in the market, meaning that the depositor
is the only victim of the banking and exchange system in both cases!"
Lebanon’s young women and men are the future, let's talk to them so they feel
that Lebanon belongs to them
NNA/January, 15/2022
Minister of Youth and Sports, George Kallas, said via Twitter today: “Young
women and men in Lebanon deserve that officials and authorities provide a
directed discourse that responds to their concerns and expectations…Lebanon’s
young women and men are waiting, they are the future. Let’s talk to them, be
honest with them and reconcile with them, so they would feel that Lebanon
belongs to them and that they are Lebanon!”
“Ruling authority wastes remaining reserves of depositors' money, buys time,”
tweets Karami
NNA/January, 15/2022
Head of the “Dignity Movement”, MP Faisal Karami, criticized via Twitter today
the Central Bank’s recent circular, saying: “The continuation of Circular #161
means that the Central Bank sells the dollar to banks for LBP 24,000 and
repurchases it from money exchangers for LBP 29,000, i.e. a loss of 5,000
Lebanese pounds for every US dollar…This is how the ruling authority decided to
pursue its disastrous policies and waste the remaining reserves of depositors'
money, in order to buy more time!”
Hbeish Says 'Almost Certain' Hariri Won't Run in Elections
Naharnet/January, 15/2022
It is "most likely" that al-Mustaqbal Movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri will not
personally run in the upcoming parliamentary elections, MP Hadi Hbeish said.
"This information has become almost certain, while the issue of running in
elections in the regions will be the subject of serious discussions with him,"
Hbeish added.
Lebanese Shiite scholar attacks Hezbollah leaders,
denounces party’s policies
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 15/2022
Shiites form 60 percent of Baalbek–Hermel region
‘You resist using deception and encroachment’: Sheikh Abdul Salam Dandach
BEIRUT: A Lebanese Shiite scholar has denounced Hezbollah, as well as its leader
Hassan Nasrallah and his deputy Sheikh Naim Qassem, in a sermon published on his
Facebook page and shared across social media.
Sheikh Abdul Salam Dandach, from the Baalbek–Hermel region, said in the video:
“Our resistance is different from theirs (Hezbollah’s). We are not the rulers of
this land and we are not new parties that came to Lebanon. Our parents and
ancestors are deeply rooted in this land.”
The party is referred to as the “resistance” in Lebanon.
He addressed Nasrallah, saying: “You resist using deception and encroachment.
You live off your resistance, based on the bliss of the US dollar, whereas our
resistance comes from hunger and poverty. You resist through surfeit and
ingratitude. We resist your lies. We resist the illness and ignorance that you
caused in the region. We resist the destruction and havoc that you created.”
FASTFACT
The Shiites in Baalbek–Hermel constitute 60 percent of the population.
Since the beginning of the economic and social crisis that has hit Lebanon, many
in the Shiite community of Baalbek–Hermel have complained about the rampant
insecurity that the region is witnessing due to the emergence of a de facto
power that controls people's lives with its weapons and allows the formation of
gangs involved in smuggling, kidnapping and extortion.
An activist from the region, who did not reveal his identity, told Arab News:
“Baalbek–Hermel doesn’t have any patron. The government has been neglecting it
for years and Hezbollah tries to avoid it, turning its back on the complicated
social and economic crises.”
The Shiites in Baalbek–Hermel constitute 60 percent of the population, whereas
the Sunnis and Christians represent 20 percent apiece.
Fewer than 30 percent of the Shiites belong to political parties, mostly the
Amal Movement and Hezbollah, whereas the rest belong to a clan.
On Oct. 17, 2019, massive protests swept across Lebanon in an unprecedented
movement against government failures, poor living standards, rampant corruption,
the lack of basic services, overwhelming sectarian rule, and the imploding
economy.
One of the Oct. 17 activists said: “Sheikh Dandach is not the first opposition
voice to rise in the region against Hezbollah. People were previously silent
because the economic situation was acceptable. But when everything collapsed,
there were no more reservations, the pain became bigger and the voice louder.
“The dominant mindset in the region is a clan mindset ruled by the logic of
dignity that refuses to be dictated as to what to do and what not to do.”
The activist said the people of Baalbek–Hermel drew comparisons between the
situation in their neglected areas and in the prosperous areas of southern
Lebanon.
“They feel that the south is receiving greater attention from Hezbollah and
enjoys many benefits and economic projects that aren’t provided to the Baalbek–Hermel
region. They refer to Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah and Parliament Speaker
Nabih Berri as the ‘Southern Duo.'”
According to a political activist in the region, Dandach derived his power from
his family in Hermel, the biggest city in the Baalbek–Hermel governorate. “This
family is linked to those involved in murders and smuggling. So, Hezbollah may
not pay attention to what Dandach says.”
But this did not mean that Dandach’s words would not harm Hezbollah and allow
other voices to be raised, including those of opponents active in the
revolution, he added, demanding that all those in power, including Hezbollah,
changed their primary decision-making partners in the country.
“Dandach’s words reflect a situation of great malaise within the Shiite
community in the region, which may be reflected in the upcoming parliamentary
elections, but the problem lies in the counter-fight against Hezbollah, which
may be in the interest of the party itself.
“Terming Hezbollah as an Iranian occupation force is an uncomfortable expression
in the region and may cause people to gravitate back toward Hezbollah.”
Réjouissez-vous Libanais et Libanaises, vous êtes occupés.
Jean-Marie Kassab/January 15/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105623/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%81%d8%b1%d8%ad%d9%88%d8%a7-%d8%a3%d9%8a%d9%87%d8%a7-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d9%86-%d9%88/
Les Iraniens ont enfin accepté de participer au conseil des ministres (uniquement
pour deux items) afin de sauver l’économie ( ?!) , se refaire une réputation en
rendant service à leur collaborateurs. Evidement après avoir empoché des sommes
énormes spéculatives entre temps.
Une preuve de plus que nous sommes occupés. Pour ceux qui en doutent,
collaborateurs ou imbéciles heureux.
En somme:
Ils daignent être gentils avec nous, on peut manger.
Ils ne veulent pas être gentils avec nous, on ne peut pas manger.
Bonne soirée les moutons.
Vive la Résistance
Vive le Liban
Jean-Marie Kassab
Task Force Lebanon
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on
January 15-16/2022
Authorities In Texas are negotiating
with man who has apparently taken hostages at Texas synagogue
Agencies/January 15, 2022
COLLEYVILLE, Texas: A SWAT police operation was underway Saturday at a Texas
synagogue where a man claiming to be the brother of a convicted terrorist has
reportedly taken several people hostage, police and media said. ABC News, citing
an unspecified source, said the suspect had taken a rabbi and three others
hostage at the Congregation Beth Israel in Colleyville, some 25 miles (40
kilometers) west of Dallas. The network reported that the hostage-taker was
armed, and had claimed to have bombs in unknown locations. Quoting a US official
briefed on the matter, ABC reported that the man was claiming to be the brother
of Aafia Siddiqui — who has been dubbed “Lady Qaeda” by US tabloids — and was
demanding to have his sister freed from prison. Siddiqui, a former Pakistani
scientist, was in 2010 sentenced by a New York court to 86 years in prison for
attempted murder of US officers in Afghanistan. The high-profile case sparked
outrage in Pakistan. A live stream of the congregation's Shabbat morning service
on Facebook appeared to capture audio of a man talking loudly — although it did
not show the scene inside the building. In it he could be heard saying, “You get
my sister on the phone,” and “I am gonna die.”He was also heard saying: “There's
something wrong with America.”The stream began at 10:00 am and stopped
broadcasting just before 2:00 pm. The Colleyville police department said in a
tweet at 11:30 am (1630 GMT) that it was "conducting SWAT operations" at the
address of the Congregation Beth Israel. In an update two hours later the
department said the situation “remains ongoing.”“We ask that you continue to
avoid the area. We will continue to provide updates via social media,” it said.
At 2:20 pm it said the situation was unchanged.
FBI agents were also on the scene, according to video footage carried by CNN.
The Dallas Morning News reported that police were negotiating with a hostage
taker. The paper said it was unclear how many people were inside the building,
citing Colleyville police sergeant Dara Nelson.
She added that no injuries had been reported inside the synagogue. Texas
congressman Colin Allred sent a message of support, saying he was “praying for
the congregants in Colleyville.”“No one should have to fear something like this
may happen in their place of worship,” he tweeted.
The police department and city government did not immediately respond to
requests for information from AFP.
Yemen Govt Close to Liberating Marib's Harib District from Houthis
Aden - Ali Rabih/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday,
15 January, 2022
The Giants Brigades are close to liberating the Harib district in the Yemeni
province of Marib from the Iran-backed Houthi militias, field sources told
Asharq Al-Awsat. The Giants Brigades have made advances on three major positions
as they worked closely with the national army, which is in turn advancing in
southern Marib towards Harib and al-Jawiya. The Brigades announced that three
Houthi leaders were killed in Harib, identifying them as Abdul Fattah al-Bahri,
Ahmed Salem al-Haddar and Taleb Mohsen al-Sharif. The battles are part of the
Saudi-led Arab coalition's recently launched operation to liberate the entire
country from the terrorist Houthis. Intense coalition raids on Friday left 330
Houthis dead and destroyed dozens of their military vehicles. In a tweet, the
coalition said it carried out 36 operations against the Houthis in Marib in the
past 24 hours. Twenty-two of their vehicles were destroyed and more than 250
militants were killed. Meanwhile, the Giants Brigades have reached the eastern
outskirts of the al-Bayda province, arriving from the Bayhan district in the
Shabwah province that liberated from the Houthis earlier this week. The
coalition said it had carried out 12 operations against the Houthis there in the
past 24 hours. The attacks destroyed seven Houthi vehicles and killed over 80
terrorist militants. On the political level, official sources said Foreign
Minister Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak held telephone talks with United Nations envoy
Hans Grundberg on the latest developments in Yemen. The discussed the dire
humanitarian situation in Marib, where over 2 million people are displaced and
are at the mercy of the ongoing barbaric Houthi offensive that the militias
launched over two years ago, reported the Saba news agency. They also tackled
the government's efforts to normalize the situation in Shabwah after its
liberation.
White House: Russia Prepping Pretext for Ukraine Invasion
Associated Press/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
U.S. intelligence officials have determined a Russian effort is underway to
create a pretext for its troops to further invade Ukraine, and Moscow has
already prepositioned operatives to conduct "a false-flag operation" in eastern
Ukraine, according to the White House.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the intelligence findings show Russia
is also laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign
that frames Ukraine as an aggressor that has been preparing an imminent attack
against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine. Psaki charged that Russia has
already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives
to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces — blaming the
acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move
forward with an invasion.
"We are concerned that the Russian government is preparing for an invasion in
Ukraine that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes
should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives," Psaki said.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described the intelligence as "very credible." A
U.S. official, who was not authorized to comment on the intelligence and spoke
on condition of anonymity, said much of it was gleaned from intercepted
communications and observations of the movements of people.
The U.S. intelligence findings, which were declassified and shared with U.S.
allies before being made public, estimate that a military invasion could begin
between mid-January and mid-February.
Ukraine is also monitoring the potential use of disinformation by Russia.
Separately, Ukrainian media on Friday reported that authorities believed Russian
special services were planning a possible false flag incident to provoke
additional conflict. The new U.S. intelligence was unveiled after a series of
talks between Russia and the U.S. and its Western allies this week in Europe
aimed at heading off the escalating crisis made little progress.
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Thursday said the U.S.
intelligence community has not made an assessment that the Russians, who have
massed some 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border, have definitively decided to
take a military course of action. But Sullivan said Russia is laying the
groundwork to invade under false pretenses should Putin decide to go that route.
He said the Russians have been planning "sabotage activities and information
operations" that accuse Ukraine of prepping for its own imminent attack against
Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
He said this is similar to what the Kremlin did in the lead-up to Russia's 2014
annexation of Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that had been under Ukraine's
jurisdiction since 1954.
The Crimea crisis came at moment when Ukraine was looking to strengthen ties
with the West. Russia had stepped up propaganda that Ukraine's ethnic Russians
were being oppressed in eastern Ukraine.
Russia has long been accused of using disinformation as a tactic against
adversaries in conjunction with military operations and cyberattacks. In 2014,
Russian state media tried to discredit pro-Western protests in Kyiv as "fomented
by the U.S. in cooperation with fascist Ukrainian nationalists" and promoted
narratives about Crimea's historical ties to Moscow, according to a report by
Stanford University's Internet Observatory. Efforts to directly influence
Ukrainians appear to have continued during the ongoing conflict in eastern
Ukraine, in which at least 14,000 people have died. The Associated Press
reported in 2017 that Ukrainian forces in the east were constantly receiving
text messages warning that they would be killed and their children would be made
orphans. Nina Jankowicz, a global fellow at the Washington-based Wilson Center,
said Russia's disinformation efforts have evolved between the lead-up to its
annexation of Crimea and now. This time, the Kremlin appears to be driving
anti-Ukraine narratives with top officials making bellicose public statements,
said Jankowicz, author of "How To Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News,
and the Future of Conflict."
"The officials are setting the tone for the state media and they're just running
with it," she said.
So-called "troll farms" that post fake comments are less influential in part
because social media companies have gotten better at stopping them, she said.
Russian efforts on social media often play on existing doubts in Ukrainian
society about whether the U.S. will support Ukraine in a conflict and whether
the West can be trusted, she said. The U.S. intelligence community has taken
note of a buildup on social media by Russian influencers justifying intervention
by emphasizing deteriorating human rights in Ukraine, suggesting an increased
militancy of Ukrainian leaders and blaming the West for escalating tensions.
"We saw this playbook in 2014," Sullivan told reporters on Thursday. "They are
preparing this playbook again."
The Russians, while maintaining they don't plan to invade Ukraine, are demanding
that the U.S. and NATO provide written guarantees that the alliance will not
expand eastward. The U.S. has called such demands nonstarters but said that it's
willing to negotiate with Moscow about possible future deployments of offensive
missiles in Ukraine and putting limits on U.S. and NATO military exercises in
Eastern Europe. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned on Friday that Moscow
wouldn't wait indefinitely for the Western response, saying he expects the U.S.
and NATO to provide a written answer next week.
Lavrov described Moscow's demands for binding guarantees that NATO will not
embrace Ukraine or any other former Soviet nations, or station its forces and
weapons there, as essential for the progress of diplomatic efforts to defuse
soaring tensions over Ukraine. He argued that NATO's deployments and drills near
Russia's borders pose a security challenge that must be addressed immediately.
"We have run out of patience," Lavrov said at a news conference. "The West has
been driven by hubris and has exacerbated tensions in violation of its
obligations and common sense."
U.N. Council Demands Houthis Release UAE Ship and Crew
Associated Press/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
The U.N. Security Council has condemned the seizure of a United Arab Emirates
ship and demanded that Yemen's Houthi rebels immediately release the vessel and
its crew. A press statement from the U.N.'s most powerful body called on all
sides "to resolve the issue quickly and underlined the importance of freedom of
navigation in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, in accordance with international
law."The seizure of the UAE-flagged Rwabee ship on Jan. 3 by the Iranian-backed
Houthis coincided with a massive memorial in Tehran on the second anniversary of
the U.S. drone stroke that killed a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, in
Baghdad. The Houthis said they seized the ship off the coast of Hodeida, Yemen's
main port, because it was carrying military equipment. The Security Council
"underscored the necessity of ensuring the crew's safety and well-being until
their release."
On Thursday, the U.N. mission monitoring implementation of a cease-fire and the
withdrawal of rival forces from Hodeida and the two smaller ports of Salif and
Ras Issa tweeted that as part of its routine weekly patrol it visited the port
of Salif and neighboring areas where its team "saw the Rwabee vessel from a
distance and spoke to its crew members." It gave no details. taking of the
Rwabee marked the latest assault in the Red Sea, a crucial route for
international trade and energy shipments. Yemen has been engulfed in civil war
since 2014 when the Houthis took the capital, Sanaa, and much of the northern
part of the country, forcing the government to flee to the south, then to Saudi
Arabia. A Saudi-led coalition that included the UAE and was backed at the time
by the United States, entered the war months later, in 2015, seeking to restore
the government to power. The conflict has since become a regional proxy war that
has killed tens of thousands of civilians and fighters. The war has also created
the world's worst humanitarian crisis, leaving millions suffering from food and
medical care shortages and pushing the country to the brink of famine. A
statement from the Saudi-led coalition accused the Houthis of committing an act
of "armed piracy" involving the Rwabee, and said the ship was carrying medical
equipment from a dismantled Saudi field hospital in Yemen's distant island of
Socotra, without offering evidence. After the Houthis showed video footage from
the Rwabee of military-style inflatable rafts, trucks and other vehicles on the
vessel and what appeared to be a collection of rifles inside a container, Saudi
state television alleged the Houthis had transferred the weapons onto the
ship.In Wednesday's statement, the Security Council reiterated its condemnation
of the increasing number of incidents off the coast of Yemen, including attacks
on civilian and commercial ships, "which pose a significant risk to the maritime
security of vessels in the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea."The British-drafted council
statement also urged all parties to de-escalate the situation in Yemen and to
"engage constructively" with U.N. special envoy Hans Grundberg who is trying to
restart political talks to end the seven-year conflict in the Arab world's
poorest nation.
Republicans Call on Biden to Withdraw from ‘Farcical’
Negotiations with Iran
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Those opposing the Iran nuke talks in Washington are pressing the US
administration to nix the negotiations as they have been moving at a languid
pace. Republicans raised the alarm in a letter they wrote to Secretary of State
Antony Blinken urging the Biden administration to pull out of unproductive talks
and adopt a harsher stance against the cleric-led regime in Iran. In the letter,
legislators warned that Iran is trying to buy time in negotiations to develop
its nuclear weapons, stressing that Tehran’s atomic provocations, while impeding
progress in talks, prove its evil intentions. “Iran’s growing nuclear
provocations, while stalling progress in negotiations are the epitome of bad
faith,” the lawmakers wrote. Roughly 110 lawmakers asked Blinken to enforce
existing sanctions against Tehran that were imposed after the US withdrew from
the nuclear deal in 2018. “The US and our partners must increase pressure on
Iran to stop its dangerous nuclear advancements,” they wrote. “The most
effective way to do so is to strongly enforce our existing sanctions and urge
our partners to take similar steps. If Iran is not prepared to negotiate as
things stand, we need to build our leverage to compel them to negotiate a
better, stricter deal with no sunsets.”Moreover, the legislators addressed the
threat of oil trade between Iran and China. “As a first, immediate step, the
Administration must enforce penalties against China’s flagrant violations of US
sanctions on Iran’s oil trade,” said the lawmakers. “Iran’s oil shipments are
now worth at least $1.3 billion per month, despite the fact that US sanctions
are still in effect,” they added. Reports in November showed that China
continued to import an average of over half a million barrels of Iranian oil per
day. “It is well past time for the Administration to end these farcical
negotiations and fully enforce our existing sanctions to slash this vital source
of revenue for the Iranian regime,” concluded the lawmakers.
US Veterans Urge Biden Against Releasing Frozen Funds to
Iran
Washington - Muath Alamri/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
US military veterans and their families called on the Biden administration
Thursday not to release frozen funds to Iran as part of nuclear negotiations
until US victims of terrorist attacks carried out by the Tehran regime or its
proxies are compensated. More than 1,000 veterans and family members of those
killed or wounded in bombings and other attacks in Iraq and elsewhere asked
President Joe Biden in a letter to meet with some of the families whose loved
ones were killed, reported NBC News. “We share your view that Iran must never be
allowed to develop or acquire nuclear weapons, but we do not believe that any
sanctions on Iran should be lifted or suspended that result in the release of
frozen funds until all outstanding judgments and pending claims against Iran and
the IRGC [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps] have been fully satisfied,” said
the letter, which was obtained by NBC News. “In our view, Iran’s frozen funds
should go first to the regime’s American victims before a single dollar goes to
the regime itself,” it added. The letter estimated that $60 billion in terrorism
lawsuit judgments and associated liens have gone unpaid because of US court
cases against Iran, with billions more tied up in pending claims. Iran has
denied playing any role in the attacks. American officials have accused
Iran-backed militias of killing hundreds of American troops in the Iraq war. The
Iranian regime owes around 53 billion dollars in nine unpaid court judgements to
American victims of its terrorism. Iran has refused to pay its dues, which is
weighing heavily on its ties with the United States and its opportunities to
expand trade with Europe and other countries that have frozen Iranian assets in
response to American court orders. Meanwhile, several observers said that if
Iran agrees or is forced to agree to settles these cases, as Libya did in the
Lockerbie case, then it could act as a significant deterrent in preventing
similar Tehran-sponsored atrocities in the future. Throughout the nuclear talks,
Iran has demanded that the US unblock billions of dollars around the world that
have been frozen by US sanctions. The US and European powers have reported
modest progress in talks with Iran in Vienna over reviving the 2015 nuclear
deal, which was designed to prevent Tehran from building nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department said this month that it would allow South
Korea to send at least $63 million in overdue damages to an Iranian company. US
sanctions had blocked the money, and Iran has been seeking access to billions of
dollars frozen in South Korea and other countries, reported NBC News. The move
followed talks between South Korea’s deputy foreign minister, Choi Jong-kun, and
the US special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley. Iran says the US has blocked about
$7 billion in South Korea related to oil shipments.
Borrell Says Reaching an Accord with Iran is Possible
Vienna - London/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Despite a painful start weeks ago, international talks to save the Iran nuclear
deal have entered the New Year with positive signals emerging, including the EU
saying Friday that a deal remained possible. There has been a marked shift in
tone since the current round began in November, even if the Western powers
complain how slow the process is at a time when Iran accelerates its nuclear
work. "There's a better atmosphere since Christmas -- before Christmas I was
very pessimistic," European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said
Friday. "Today I believe reaching an accord is possible," even within the coming
weeks, he said after an informal meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brest,
France. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said earlier this week that efforts by
"all parties" to revive the 2015 nuclear agreement had resulted in "good
progress" during the Vienna talks. And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei
Ryabkov said that the negotiations had "accelerated" and that "the chances of
reaching a solution have risen". But French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian,
speaking next to Borrell on Friday, reiterated his view that the talks were
progressing "much too slowly to be able to reach a result".
France currently chairs the EU's rotating presidency.
Continuous negotiations to salvage the nuclear deal resumed on 29 November after
they were suspended in June as Iran elected a new, ultraconservative president.
The 2015 deal -- agreed by Iran, the United States (under Democratic president
Barack Obama), China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany -- offered Tehran
sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program to ensure it would
not develop atomic weapons. But Republican president Donald Trump pulled the US
out in 2018 and reimposed biting sanctions, prompting Tehran to begin rolling
back on its commitments. Determined to revive the deal, Trump's successor Joseph
Biden, a Democrat who was Obama's vice president, sent an American delegation to
Vienna to participate indirectly in the talks. European diplomats have been
shuttling between the talks venue at a luxury hotel and where the US team is
based. US State Department Ned Price said on Wednesday that although there had
been "modest progress in recent weeks" this was "not sufficient" to secure a
return to the deal.
China Slams US Sanctions on Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
China reaffirmed its opposition to unilateral sanctions by the United States
against Iran as the Chinese and Iranian foreign ministers announced the launch
of a 25-year cooperation agreement aimed at strengthening economic and political
ties.In a meeting on Friday in the city of Wuxi, in Jiangsu province, Chinese
Foreign Minister Wang Yi also backed efforts to revive a 2015 nuclear deal
between major powers and Iran. A summary of the meeting between Wang and Iranian
Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian was posted on China's foreign ministry
website on Saturday, Reuters reported. Wang, who is also State Councillor, said
the US bore primary responsibility for the ongoing difficulties with Iran,
having unilaterally withdrawn from a 2015 nuclear deal between the major powers
and Iran. Under the terms of that deal, in return for the lifting of
international sanctions, Iran would limit uranium enrichment activity, making it
harder to develop nuclear arms – although Tehran denies having plans for nuclear
weapons. Wang said China would firmly support a resumption in negotiations on a
nuclear pact. But he said China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions against
Iran, political manipulation through topics including human rights, and
interference in the internal affairs of Iran and other regional countries. The
United States reimposed sanctions that badly damaged Iran's economy after
withdrawing from the nuclear pact in 2018, saying the terms did not do enough to
curb Iran's nuclear activities, ballistic missile program and regional
influence. A year later, Iran began to gradually breach the accord, rebuilding
stockpiles of enriched uranium, refining it to higher fissile purity and
installing advanced centrifuges to speed up output. China and Iran, both subject
to US sanctions, signed the 25-year cooperation agreement last March, bringing
Iran into China' Belt and Road Initiative, a multi-trillion-dollar
infrastructure scheme intended to stretch from East Asia to Europe. The project
aims to significantly expand China's economic and political influence, and has
raised concerns in the United States and elsewhere. The foreign ministry summary
said the agreement would deepen Sino-Iranian cooperation in areas including
energy, infrastructure, agriculture, health care and culture, as well as cyber
security and cooperation with other countries. Iran and the US remain locked in
talks over whether a compromise can be found to renew the deal and dispel fears
of a wider Middle East War. A source close to negotiations said on Friday that
many issues remain unresolved. Wang, who earlier in the week met with several
counterparts from Gulf Arab countries concerned about the potential threat from
Iran, also said China hopes to set up a dialogue mechanism with Gulf countries
to discuss regional security issues.
Jordanian FM: Arab Peace Treaties Not an Alternative to
Peace with Palestinians
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stressed on
Thursday that the peace treaties concluded between some Arab states and Israel
could not be an alternative to addressing the Palestinian-Israeli issue. During
a panel discussion at the Brookings Institution on the Jordanian-US strategic
partnership, the Minister rejected a one-state solution. “It will be the one
state's reality and it will be an ugly reality whereby apartheid will be
institutionalized and that's something that will not bring peace to all of us
and will not solve the conflict and then allow all of us in the region to move
forward to addressing our common concerns,” he said. Safadi later held talks in
Washington with his US counterpart Antony Blinken. State Department Spokesperson
Ned Price said the two officials emphasized the importance of the US-Jordan
strategic partnership in advancing shared regional goals of peace, stability,
and security. They discussed the importance of implementing reforms that expand
economic growth and opportunity, including securing access to water. Price said
the Secretary reaffirmed US commitment to stability in the region through the
support of a political solution in Syria and a two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Blinken also thanked the Foreign Minister for
Jordan’s leadership in the region, particularly in its hosting of refugees. The
Jordanian minister is in Washington for talks on the new memorandum of
understanding (MoU) for the strategic partnership between the two countries.
Safadi said the MoU will contribute to supporting economic reforms launched by
Jordan, in addition to its positive impact on facing economic challenges. His
meetings also touched on a number of the Middle East region's issues including
the Palestinian cause, the Syrian crisis, supporting Iraq and fighting
terrorism. During Thursday’s panel at the Brookings Institution, Safadi said,
“We cannot just rely solely on the US to come and do everything for us.” The FM
added, “We have to do the heavy lifting in the region ourselves, and we have to
engage in a two-way traffic whereby we do what we have to do, and the US is
there to support and come up with ideas.”Safadi uncovered that his country has
been able to conclude an agreement that would allow for the export of energy
through Syria into Lebanon. “Discussions are extremely advanced in terms of
providing Egyptian gas through Jordan, through Syria, and there, we're doing all
of that in coordination with the US, with other partners, with the World Bank to
make sure that we do get this support to the Lebanese because they simply need
it,” he stressed. Tackling the situation in Syria, he said the consequences of
11 years of war are devastating in every way possible.
Syria’s Opposition Hails Ex-officer’s Conviction, Wants
Justice to Go Higher
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
Syrian opposition groups said Germany's conviction of a former Syrian
intelligence officer for crimes against humanity this week was welcome but was
only a step towards holding to account President Bashar al-Assad and his top
aides. The conviction of Anwar Raslan, who defected to Syria's opposition in
2012 before securing asylum in Germany, marked a landmark ruling related to
state-backed torture committed during Syria's decade-long war. But opponents of
Syria's government said cases against lower ranking officers should not distract
from more senior targets. "We welcome the justice of the German court ... but we
also warn against the selective justice that pursues small killers and fugitive
criminals from the network of terror and authoritarianism," said Mustafa Sejari,
an opposition commander and former detainee. "Justice begins by holding and
pursuing Assad and his top henchmen, aides and supporters of his crimes," said
Sejari, head of the political bureau of the Syrian Front for Liberation, a
mainstream group operating in the last opposition enclave. Raslan, 58, was
convicted on 27 out of 58 counts of murder, rape and sexual assault carried out
at a Damascus prison run by a unit of the security services he led. He denied
the charges. Syria's Information Ministry did not immediately respond to an
emailed request for comment on the Raslan case that was sent during the Syrian
weekend, which starts on Friday. There was no immediate sign of any official
reaction in Syrian media. The Assad government routinely denies torturing
prisoners and says its forces have been waging a fight against opposition
factions and extremists, who it accuses of terrorizing the population.
'Victory' for accountability
Fadel Abdul Ghany, head of the Syrian Network for Human Rights, which helped
prosecutors and compiles casualty lists, said the conviction showed "these are
crimes of a systematic widespread nature that cannot be carried out by
individuals without being a central policy of the Syrian regime".
Mohamad Sabra, a former opposition negotiator, wrote on Twitter: "It's a victory
for the principle of accountability and a small step ... on the path of holding
to account all perpetrators of war crimes and violators of human rights in
Syria."Syria's conflict began with protests against Assad's regime in 2011. It
swiftly descended into all-out war. Assad has now regained control of much of
the territory initially lost to opposition and extremist fighters, helped by
Syria's ally Russia. Rebels still hold out in a small, northern area. Millions
of people have been displaced in the war, tens of thousands have died and cities
and towns have been devastated. Raslan's trial was held under Germany's
universal jurisdiction laws, which allow courts to prosecute crimes against
humanity committed anywhere in the world. "The verdict will not heal the wounds
in the heart of a mother who lost her son under torture or ease suffering
endured by a detainee but it's a chance to renew the hope the Syrian regime will
fall," said Omar al Shughri, an activist for detainees with the Syrian
Organization for Emergencies. Raed Al Saleh, head of the opposition-run Syrian
civil defense service known as the White Helmets, said the trial would have had
more impact if it could have been held in Syria. "The trial was under
international jurisdiction but what about the tens of thousands who disappeared
in Assad's prisons and who were tortured every day," he added.
Syrian Regime Forces Launch Anti-ISIS campaign in Deir
Ezzor Desert
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
The Syrian army backed by pro-government factions, including the National
Defense Forces (NDF), kicked off a new combing operation in the southern
countryside of Deir Ezzor. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
(SOHR), the operation is meant to secure the area of al-Duwair, which is located
between the towns of al-Mayadin and al-Bukamal. In a report, the London-based
monitoring group said that Syrian government forces are searching for “ISIS
members who stepped up their activities in al-Badia [the Syrian desert] since
the beginning of January.” The new operation is backed by the Russian Aerospace
Forces, who have been targeting ISIS hideouts in the deserts of Raqqa and Deir
Ezzor. A recent wave of Russian airstrikes, which targeted the outskirts of the
town of al-Resafa in the southern Raqqa countryside, killed 11 terrorists and
wounded at least 20 others. Recent attacks by ISIS cells on Syrian regime forces
in the southern countryside of Deir Ezzor were likely behind the decision to
launch the operation. The new operation will likely push ISIS cells out from the
Deir Ezzor desert for some time only.
A more comprehensive operation is needed to fully neutralize the terrorist
group’s presence in the central region. In another report, SOHR activists
documented ISIS cells having installed the organization’s flags in the villages
and towns of Swaydan Jazera, Darnaj, Al-Jerthi Al-Gharbi, Al-Jerthi Al-Sharqi,
Abu Hardoub and the market in Gharanij town in the eastern countryside of Deir
Ezzor. According to the Observatory data, the death toll of regime forces since
the beginning of 2022 at the hands of ISIS militants in the Syrian Badia has
reached 20. More than 1,636 pro-regime fighters have been killed since March
2019, compared to 1,128 ISIS militants, according to the Observatory. The
terrorist group’s self-declared “caliphate” once stretched across vast parts of
Syria and Iraq and administered millions of inhabitants. A long and deadly
military fightback led by Syrian and Iraqi forces with backing from the United
States and other powers eventually defeated the militant proto-state in March
2019. The remnants of ISIS mostly went back to their desert hideouts from which
they continued to harass the Syrian government and allied forces. The group is
thought to be attempting to secure sources of funding through trafficking and
racketeering, prompting observers to warn of a militant resurgence in the
region.
Hashed intimidation attempt suspected in Baghdad blasts
targeting offices of Sadr allies
The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022-
Only two injuries and some material damage were reported after blasts hit the
Baghdad headquarters of parties allied to the Sadrist Movement, Friday and
Thursday, in incidents where analysts saw clear warnings from pro-Iran Shia
parties to rival Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr that he will not be able to form a
government without their consent or rule at their expense. An explosion from a
hand grenade hit the headquarters of Iraqi parliament speaker Mohammed
Halbousi’s Taqaddum party in Baghdad, early on Friday, wounding two guards,
police sources said. There was no claim of responsibility but a source in the
Baghdad police told Anadolu Agency that “unidentified gunmen targeted the
building of Taqaddom Coalition”, headed by Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Halbousi,
in the Adhamiyah neighborhood, northern Baghdad.
Iraq’s parliament, newly elected after an October 10 general election in which
the powerful Shia populist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was the biggest winner, voted
to reinstate Halbousi for his second term as speaker on Sunday, against the
wishes of the pro-Iran Framework Alliance parties. Similar blasts targeted a
building of Azm Alliance, headed by Sunni leader Khamis Khanjar, in Baghdad.
Another explosion hit a buildng near the the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP),
another ally of the Sadrist Movement. Besides the reported injuries, the
targeted buildings sustained damages.During the last elections, the Sadrist
Movement won about a fifth of the seats, 73 out of the legislature’s total 329,
while the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political arm of the pro-Iranian Hashed
al-Shaabi, won only 17 seats, sharply down from the 48 seats the used to control
in the outgoing assembly. Taqaddom Coalition came second with 37 seats, while
the Azm Alliance garnered 14 seats. Iraqi affairs experts say the Alliance
Framework parties are wary of Sadr forming a new government excluding the
pro-Iran Shia forces and possibly attempting to fully integrate the Hashed
Shaabi militias into the regular army or cut its funding.
Iraq’s post-election period since the October 10 vote has been marred by high
tensions, violence and allegations of vote fraud, as pro-Iran political parties
refused to concede their loss in the ballot to the Sadrist Movement.
Iraq’s top court, Thursday, provisionally suspended the newly-appointed speaker
of parliament, while judges consider an appeal by two pro-Iranian party deputies
claiming his re-election by other lawmakers was unconstitutional. The move
impacts the workings of parliament, as lawmakers cannot meet without the
speaker. One of the parliament’s first tasks must be to elect the country’s
president, who will then name a prime minister tasked with forming a new
government. Despite Halbousi’s suspension, the clock has not stopped ticking on
the 30-day deadline to elect a new president that began at the parliament’s
inaugural session, the court said. In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq,
the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations ever since the
2003 US-led invasion toppled President Saddam Hussein. Moqtadar al-Sadr, the
head of the winning formation that bears his name, has vowed to form “a majority
government” instead of the traditional consensus-based cabinet. Parliament only
met Sunday for the first time in three months since the polls, where the new
members held a swearing-in ceremony and elected the speaker.
It opened to furious arguments between rival factions of Shia lawmakers as
members of the pro-Iran Framework Alliance claimed to have enough seats to be
the leading bloc in parliament. The Sadrists rejected their implausible claim.
In sign of improving ties, UAE plans to ramp up trade with
Turkey
The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022
The United Arab Emirates is “betting on Turkey” by seeking to boost bilateral
trade, the Gulf nation’s trade minister said, in the latest sign of improving
ties. The UAE hopes to double or triple trade volumes with Turkey, which it sees
as a route to new markets thanks to its logistical network, Minister of State
for Foreign Trade Thani al-Zeyoudi told Bloomberg in an interview published on
Thursday. The Emirates are “betting on Turkey as a country which is going to
open up for us new markets through their logistics and through their supply
chain”, Zeyoudi said. The comments come after Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed announced a $10 billion fund for investments in Turkey in
November, during the UAE’s first high-level visit there since 2012. Relations
between the two countries were heavily strained after a Saudi Arabia-led
blockade on Qatar by Arab nations including the UAE that lasted from mid-2017 to
early last year. Doha is one of Ankara’s closest allies. The UAE and Turkey
backed opposing sides in the Libyan conflict, where a fragile ceasefire has been
in place since October 2020. The UAE’s ties with Turkey had also been strained
over the role of Islamist groups in the tumult that followed the 2011 Arab
Spring uprisings. As part of a charm offensive launched last year, Turkey has
moved to repair ties with the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
The UAE has accelerated a push to step back from regional conflicts and refocus
on the economy.
Israel sees closer ties between Syria, Gulf states as
helping curb Iran's influence
The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022-
Israel sees benefits in terms of curtailing Iranian influence in Syria arising
from the Gulf states' progress towards normalisation with the Damascus regime,
said an Israeli media report quoting "a senior diplomatic official" in the
Jewish state. The unnamed source, cited by Israeli news website Ynet, said that
closer ties to Arab Sunni states might indicate a willingness on the part of the
Syrian regime to curb relations with Iran and Shia allies. “During the coming
year there will be opportunities to reduce the Iranian presence in Syria,”
predicted the Israeli official. The Israeli source highlighted the importance of
the economic factor as the rapprochement between Damascus and Gulf countries
could help Syria deal with its financial crunch and shore up the stability of
the regime. Syria faces a tough economic crisis due to war-related expenditures
and US and European restrictions. The Israeli official described Iran’s nuclear
programme as “a great threat to Israel, even an existential threat" and the
development of an atomic weapon by Iran would “exacerbate the terror activities
of its proxies in the area.”
The source did not rule out an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities if
the ongoing talks in Vienna do not manage to limit the threat of Israel building
a nuclear bomb. But the Israeli official noted that in case of a military attack
on Iran, Lebanon's pro-Iran party Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant faction
Hamas might enter the fray in support of Tehran. Hezbollah “has very significant
attack capabilities that pose a challenge to us,” the Israeli source added. “We
are conducting defensive preparations in the northern arena.”Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett was quoted as telling the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and
Defence Committee, Monday, that Israel was conducting "a multifaceted war"
against Iran and its regional proxies, especially Hezbollah and Hamas. He
expressed the view that financial constraints and pressures at home limit Iran's
ability to carry out its regional designs. Since last July, a number of Arab
countries has increasingly made moves to normalise relations with the Assad
regime, through meetings, agreements and economic understandings. The moves
involved Jordan, Egypt and the UAE, in particular. Last November, UAE Foreign
Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan was the first high-ranking Gulf
official to visit Syria since most GCC countries severed diplomatic relations
with Damascus, following the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011. Observers
described the visit, in which the UAE foreign minister met Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad, as a step which opened a new chapter with Syria and paved the
way for other initiatives to rehabilitate the Damascus regime.
Analysts believe that the war in Syria has been militarily resolved in favour of
the regime forces and their allies since 2018, with the departure of the armed
opposition fighters from their positions on the outskirts of the capital and the
nearby governorate of Deraa. Since then, the chances of the opposition
overthrowing the regime militarily have virtually amounted to "nil". Many Arab
countries have subsequently concluded that it was in their interests to
normalise links with the regime in Damascus. Encouraged by a number of Arab
governments, led by Jordan, Arab League member states are debating whether the
timing is right to restore the active membership of Damascus in the League and
normalise with its regime. The pan-Arab organisation had suspended Syria's
membership in October 2011 and called for the withdrawal of Arab ambassadors
from Damascus until the regime fulfilled its commitments to the protection of
civilians. At the beginning of the Syrian war, Arab countries provided support
to Syrian opposition factions after the Syrian protests turned into an armed
insurrection met by bloody repression on the part of the security forces. The
military operations carried direct repercussions on the security and stability
of Syria's neighbouring countries of Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.
The UAE and Bahrain reopened their embassies in Damascus at the end of 2018, at
the level of chargé d'affaires. In October 2020, the sultanate of Oman returned
its ambassador to Damascus, becoming the first Gulf country to restore its
diplomatic representation at the ambassadorial level. According to media
reports, Saudi Arabia reopened direct channels of communication with Syria last
May, with the visit of the head of the Saudi intelligence service,
Lieutenant-General Khaled al-Humaidan, to Damascus and his meeting with Assad
and the head of the National Security Office, Major General Ali Mamlouk.
The Syrian regime is also intensifying contacts through Lebanon. For the first
time, Damascus received an official Lebanese delegation prior to the formation
of the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who has maintained a close
relationship with Damascus for years. His ties to Syria were reinforced by huge
investments in the local economy. Arab countries neighbouring Syria see high
stakes in terms of geopolitical and economic interests, especially with regard
to ensuring the safe return home of Syrian refugees from Lebanon and Jordan.
Sudan’s National Umma Party: UN Mediation Efforts Didn’t
Reach Initiative Stage
Khartoum - Ahmed Younis/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 15 January, 2022
The political process sponsored by the United Nations and its Special
Representative for Sudan, Volker Perthes, is not an initiative because it is
still in its early phase, said National Umma Party Chairperson Fadlallah Baramah
Nasser. Nasser said that his party has agreed in principle to the political
process and leaving details for later stages. Perthes also heads the UN
Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS). Speaking to Asharq
Al-Awsat, Nasser clarified that the UN-backed political process is still in the
phase of exploring different views and has not yet matured into an initiative.
“We are the ones who want the initiative, and as a party we accept it in
principle and conduct the necessary consultations to reach it,” said Nasser. He
revealed that Perthes had contacted the military and met with head of the
Transitional Sovereignty Council Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. This could mean that
the UN diplomat had received an initial agreement from the military. On Friday,
the head of the UNITAMS launched a political dialogue to reach a complete
consensus between Sudanese parties in the hopes of it leading to a full
democratic transition under civilian leadership. Perthes’ move looks to end the
current political crisis in the country. On January 8, Perthes sent out an
invitation to all Sudanese parties urging them to arrive to a solution that
allows Sudan to escape political turmoil. The call for holding expanded talks
under Perthes’ sponsorship was made to all political parties, civil society
organizations, armed movements, women’s groups and popular resistance
committees. Perthes’ call for consultations received mixed responses from
Sudanese parties. One of the major organizers of Sudan’s anti-coup protests, the
Sudanese Professionals’ Association, refused an offer from the UN to mediate
talks with the military. The Association said in a statement that the “only way”
out of the crisis was through the removal of the generals from the seats of
power in the country. Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change, the
umbrella coalition for the groups behind the protests, said it had not received
any details of Perthes’ proposal.
Canada/Minister Joly to travel to Ukraine, France and
Belgium
January 15, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Throughout its history, Canada has played a significant role in the creation and
upholding of the rules-based international order, which is instrumental to the
preservation of global peace and security. When these rules are challenged,
Canada must stand up and work with its allies to prevent their deterioration.
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced that
she will be traveling to Europe to meet directly with several of her European
counterparts and reaffirm Canada’s steadfast support for Ukraine’s sovereignty
and territorial integrity. The Minister’s meetings will build on Canada’s
previous and ongoing engagement, including with NATO and the Organization for
Security and Co-operation in Europe, and focus on Russia’s aggression and
ongoing destabilizing activities in and around Ukraine. Minister Joly will
emphasize the importance of collective security and the role it plays in
upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence.
Minister Joly will build on Canada’s already strong relationships with its
European counterparts and work to strengthen international co-operation to
advance democracy and human rights internationally.
In Kyiv, Ukraine, the Minister will meet with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and
Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna. She will also meet with Canadian Armed
Forces troops deployed on Operation UNIFIER to thank them directly for their
important training mission in support of the Security Forces of Ukraine. In
Paris, France, she will have a bilateral meeting with Jean-Yves Le Drian,
France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs. In Brussels, Belgium, Minister
Joly will sit down with Sophie Wilmès, Belgium’s Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Affairs and Foreign Trade; and Jens
Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General. The Minister will also meet Josep Borrell,
High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
The Minister will depart on Sunday, January 16, and return on Saturday, January
22. All COVID-19 related public health rules and guidelines will be followed
before, during and after the Minister’s trip.
Quotes
“The amassing of Russian troops and equipment in and around Ukraine jeopardizes
security in the entire region. These aggressive actions must be deterred. Canada
will work with its international partners to uphold the rules-based
international order and preserve the human rights and dignity of Ukrainians.”
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Quick facts
Since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Canada has imposed
sanctions on more than 440 individuals and entities, many in coordination with
our allies.
Canada’s contributions to NATO demonstrate its unwavering commitment to the
Alliance, and strengthen Allied capacity to respond to the evolving security
environment.
The Latest The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on January 15-16/2022
Biden Is Dividing the Country He Promised to Unite
Clive Crook/Bloomberg/January, 15/2022
Over years of following American politics, I’d come to regard Joe Biden as
harmless — a back-slapper without strong conviction, given to exaggeration and
the occasional outright lie, but no worse than average for a career politician
and no threat to the republic. Lately I’ve been wondering if I overestimated
him.
His remarks on Tuesday settle the matter. His speech on election law was
Trump-level demagoguery, the opposite of what the country needs and should
expect of its president.
Biden is pressing for passage of two voting-reform laws. The first — the Freedom
to Vote Act — is a compendium of measures to make voting easier. The other — the
John Lewis Act — seeks among other things to restore requirements on some states
to get federal permission for changes in their voting rules.
Together, they constitute a strong exertion of federal authority over states’
ability to conduct elections. Set aside what the Constitution may or may not
require in that regard: Since the elections in question are federal, I see no
principled objection. Voting should be as easy as possible, and to the naïve
observer, it isn’t obvious why the rules should vary state by state.
Yet there’s a vast difference between advocating for these bills and equating
opposition to them as support for “Jim Crow 2.0” and “the end of democracy.”
That is exactly what Biden did. It was hyperbole verging on hysteria.
The fate of the republic does not rest on what form of ID is required of people
turning up at polling places. Nor does it depend on whether snacks can be served
to voters in line, registration is automatic, Election Day is a national
holiday, or states offer 15 consecutive days of early voting. These and
countless other minutiae vary widely across the democratic world.
In contrast, the fate of the republic might indeed depend on whether the losing
side accepts the election result as legitimate. In his response to the 2020
election, Trump overthrew that presumption, and was rightly slammed for it. Now
Biden, who promised to unite the nation and repair the damage Trump has wrought,
is doing just the same.
If the reform bills fail to pass — as seems all but certain, since the Democrats
lack a sufficient majority in the Senate and two of their senators are opposed
to suspending the filibuster — Biden’s rhetoric will have laid the groundwork
for a truly chilling scenario: When Democrats next lose an election, they will
view the result as illegitimate. In a country as closely and bitterly divided as
the US, it’s hard to think of a more toxic intervention.
Granted, many Republican states are at least partially rolling back the easing
of voting procedures demanded by the pandemic. Calculations, right or wrong, of
partisan advantage are presumably influencing these maneuvers. (Does anyone
believe Democrats would support more permissive rules if they thought the
resulting additional votes would tilt Republican?) The elections of 2020 have
been exhaustively investigated and were found to be well conducted, so on this
account too the rolling back looks wrong.
Even so, Biden’s account of the new laws was misleading. He singled out
Georgia’s new rules, for instance, though they’re more permissive than those of
some firmly Democratic states. And he ignored the most important fact of all: A
substantial share of the electorate doesn’t trust the 2020 results.
Yes, that last fact is due in large part to Trump’s lies. Still, the point
stands: Restoring trust in the electoral system should be an overriding goal of
every responsible politician, and above all the president. That means speaking
to Republicans as decent fellow citizens. And it means recognizing the trade-off
between making voting easier and making it more secure.
Biden is now calling for the filibuster to be set aside so the reform measures
can be passed. For any ordinary piece of legislation, this would be unwise, for
the reasons the president used to explain when he was a senator in the minority.
But a partisan vote to remake election rules would be especially reckless. It’s
crucial to lift election procedures above the political fray so they command
respect and confidence across the partisan divide.
Representative James Clyburn has reminded people that Congress passed the 15th
Amendment, which gave freed slaves the right to vote, over solid partisan
resistance. He makes a good point, except this is not 1870. It also isn’t 1965,
when the Voting Rights Act outlawed plainly discriminatory rules such as
literacy tests. And just to confirm, Joe Manchin isn’t Bull Connor.
In 2022, the principal threat to American democracy is not racist voter
suppression but the inability of two raging political tribes to come to terms
about anything, including whether the orderly transition of power is still
possible.
Biden campaigned as the return-to-normal candidate. He seemed suited to the
role, and it’s why he won: His most vital job was going to be to show that
elections can be trusted, that people with deep disagreements can still engage
constructively and that, once in a while, something can get done. Until this
week, he could have been fairly accused of making no great effort to do as he
promised. The new charge is that, for political advantage, he’s choosing to
deepen the country’s divisions.
Kazakhstan: Echoes of the Autumn of Sorrows
Amir Taheri/ Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 15/2022
Until earlier this month, Kazakhstan, the largest of Central Asian republics to
become independent after the dissolution of the Soviet Empire 30 years ago,
appeared the most stable entity in the region.
Under President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s iron-fist leadership it had avoided the
religious feuds, civil wars, coups and countercoups that had shaken kindred
former Soviet republics, such as neighboring Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan
and Turkmenistan.
However, Nazarbayev’s autocratic rule was not the sole reason for the new
republic’s stability. There were at least three other contributory factors.
The first was the boom created by the opening of Kazakhstan’s vast energy
resources, including more than 3 percent of global oil reserves, to foreign,
mostly Western capital. That, in turn, helped the newly independent republic to
offer its citizens the living standards they could not have imagined under
Soviet rule.
Next, Kazakhstan succeeded in maintaining a balance in its relations with the
three key powers that coveted its wealth and geopolitical value: China, Russia
and the United States. In an interview in Davos in 2014, Switzerland, President
Nazarbayev quipped that Kazakhstan had “three big neighbors: China, Russia and
the United States as a virtual neighbor.”
Finally, Kazakhstan succeeded in sustaining a level of inter-ethnic coexistence
unknown in other newly independent republics.
Under Bolshevik rule, Stalin, as Commissar for Nationalities, made sure that
every newly created ethnic republic contained a minority of other ethnic groups:
Tajiks in Uzbekistan, Uzbeks in Tajikistan, Kazakhs in Kyrgyzstan, Armenians in
Azerbaijan and so on. To every ethnic cocktail he also added a sprinkling of
Russian and Ukrainian settlers.
In the case of Kazakhstan that ethnic cocktail received a much bigger dose of
Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians because of the so-called “Virgin Lands”
campaign that Soviet leaders launched to end famine in their empire by
cultivating the vast steppes of Kazakhstan.
As a result, at independence, over 30 percent of Kazakhstan’s population were
non-Muslim, Europeans, mostly Russian while a further 20 percent were mixed,
mostly feeling closer to European groups than traditional Central Asian Muslims.
The fact that Russian was adopted as the official language tilted the balance
away from the Islamic-Asian identity that had led to so many rebellions in
neighboring republics.
The latest riots that may be the opening salvos in a long fight over
Kazakhstan’s future may mean that the factors that nurtured three decades of
stability are now all in question.
Part of Nazarbayev’s success in imposing his autocracy was due to the myths
woven around his name as the father of the nation and the architect of its
independence. As a member of top Soviet leadership before Kazakhstan became
independent, he already had special status in the eyes of the average Kazakh.
He reassured those nostalgic of the Soviet past while wooing those caressing
hopes for the future.
His successor as President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has none of his charisma.
Tokayev is a grey bureaucrat who has reached the top by simply being there,
something like Konstantin Chernenko, who rose to the top of the Soviet greasy
pole just by refusing to die before his contemporaries in the geriatric
Politburo.
Next, with the fall in energy prices, the economic boom fueled by oil and gas
exports has somewhat subsided while public expectations of rising living
standard have not moderated.
Despite massive investment in new energy projects by US and other Western oil
companies, annual Income per head that was nearly $27,000 in 2019 fell to just
over $25,000 last year.
Three decades of economic boom has also created a new middle class whose
political and cultural aspirations do not match its material living standards.
Millions of Kazakhs now enjoy material living standards comparable to those.
The next factor of stability challenged is Nazarbayev’s balanced foreign policy.
The United States gradual isolationism, starting with President Barack Obama and
the closure of US bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, whetted the appetites of
both China and Russia for greater influence in Central Asia as a whole.
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia has launched a long-term geostrategic
campaign to regain its zone of influence in Europe, the Middle East and Central
Asia where Kazakhstan is the biggest prize. It has imposed the new Caspian
Convention that, when finalized, would give Russia a virtual veto on key aspects
of the economic and defense policies of all littoral states, including
Kazakhstan, in the energy-rich Caspian Basin.
For the past few years Putin has stepped up propaganda to woo ethnic Russian and
Ukrainians in Kazakhstan as “kith and kin” whose future safety depends on
Moscow’s protector. In turn, the Russian campaign has caused unease among
Kazakhs who suddenly realize that their ethnic-Russian fellow citizens hold a
much higher percentage of plum positions in civil service and the military than
their actual numbers would warrant.
The fact that recent rioters attacked shops and other businesses owned or
managed by ethnic Russians and other Europeans may be a sign of that unease.
Often suspected of being a Russophile, President Tokayev may have further fanned
that flame by calling on Russia and Belarus to send in troops along with
mercenaries from the Kremlin-controlled private security firm Wagner to quell
the recent riots.
Many Kazakhs see his assertion that “invited troops” would remain in Kazakhstan
as long as needed as a pretext for a permanent Russian military presence.
To curry favor with Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic groups in a bid to divert
attention from his pro-Russian tilt, Tokayev has upset relations with China by
allowing Uighurs to organize protest against Beijing’s “crimes against humanity”
in East Turkestan (Xinjiang).
Tokayev says that in recent riots “only 20,000 bandits” were involved. But the
fact that that almost 200 protestors lost their lives and more than 8,000 were
sent to prison shows that a much larger popular uprising, triggered by the
sudden rise in domestic petrol prices, may have been involved.
In their early days, the Bolsheviks used a similar claim to justify genocide in
Kazakhstan, labelled “Autumn of Sorrows”, ordered by Lenin and orchestrated by
Frunze.
The current “Winter of Discontent” contains echoes of the “Autumn of Sorrows”
that, because Kazakhs know how to abide, did not wipe them off the map of
existence. As Kazakh poet Tumanbay Mazdagaliev wrote:
“We had enough flour to last until the summer.
Happiness for us was someone’s help.
My childhood passed by while I kept saying
I will wear my Daddy’s boots when he returns.”
US posture in Syria is risky
Haid Haid/The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022
Washington’s soft approach is primarily due to its fear of jeopardising the
nuclear deal talks with Tehran.
Last year saw a significant increase in the number of attacks against US forces
in Syria and that trend has already continued in 2022. Earlier this month, eight
missiles fell on a military base hosting American troops in northeast Syria,
suggesting that there will be no let-up in the targeting of US soldiers.
While no organisation has taken credit for the spike, an analysis of the
circumstances surrounding the attacks, and the tepid American response, suggests
two things. First, the absence of US casualties indicates that a goal of those
launching the strikes is to send messages rather than inflict damages. And
second, Washington’s conscious decision not to retaliate is emboldening these
actors to use missiles as their primary means of communication.
The US is believed to have around 900 soldiers deployed in Syria. These troops
are focusing on supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces to maintain
pressure on the remnants of ISIS and to prevent them from recapturing territory.
In addition to their advisory role, American soldiers conduct regular patrol
missions in northeast Syria and participate in security operations against the
extremist group’s affiliates.
However, not all American troops are stationed inside the Kurdish-controlled
region. Washington also has a relatively significant military presence in Al-Tanf,
which is located on a strategic road connecting Tehran to Lebanon via Iraq and
Syria. Hence, the base is widely seen as part of the larger US strategy to
contain Iran’s military reach in the region. This, among other reasons related
to the historical rivalry between the two countries, has prevented Tehran from
considering Washington a tactical friend against ISIS in Syria.
That is evidenced by the increased frequency of attacks against key US military
locations in Syria. American forces have been reportedly attacked once a month,
on average, since June 2021, an unprecedented rate in the history of US
operations in Syria. Most of these attacks were carried out against US locations
in Deir Ezzor, where operations against ISIS are centred. Despite its importance
for Iran, the Al-Tanf base came second. That is because targeting US positions
in the northeast is easier. Al-Tanf’s location in Syria’s Badia desert, which is
flat and unpopulated, allows the US to easily spot and eliminate any ground
attackers.
To overcome this operational obstacle, anti-American aggressors resorted to
using unmanned aerial systems. Unlike the short-range surface-to-surface
missiles that are used in other offensives, the use of drones requires more
technical expertise and hence reveals valuable information about the identity of
the attackers. The drones used in these attacks are more sophisticated than the
modified commercial devices used by groups like ISIS. More importantly, these
drones are like the ones used against US air bases in Iraq. The attacks in Syria
also mirror the tactics used by Iranian-backed militias in Yemen and Iraq. These
findings, among others, strongly indicate that Iran or Iranian-backed groups are
behind these incursions.
While expelling US forces from Syria seems to be the common goal of these
assaults, the triggers that initiate them appear to vary. For example, the
latest spate of assaults, which were coordinated in both Syria and Iraq, is
believed to have been motivated by the desire of Iranian-backed factions to
commemorate the second anniversary of the death of Qassem Soleimani, who was
killed by an American airstrike in January 2020.
Other attacks are suspected to be linked to the nuclear negotiations between the
US and Iran, which are taking place in Vienna. Some believe that the assaults
are being used strategically to influence negotiations, while others think that
these incidents are arranged by hardliners to spoil the talks altogether.
Meanwhile, US and Israeli officials have said that Iran-backed groups in Syria,
in addition to launching assaults in response to American airstrikes, are also
attacking American forces in retaliation for Israeli airstrikes. A report by The
New York Times in November identified an armed drone assault against Al-Tanf as
the first Iranian retaliation against the US in response to an attack by Israel.
Open data sources confirmed that the air base was targeted a few days after
unidentified drones hit Iranian-backed factions twice in a matter of days in the
eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor. Those airstrikes killed at least seven
militia members, destroyed several weapons depots and caused huge explosions in
the area.
But these triggers are not new and cannot alone explain the motivation for the
recent uptick in attacks against US forces. Hence, the answer might lie in
America’s foreign policy under the Biden administration. The White House’s
decisions to withdraw from Afghanistan and end the US combat mission in Iraq
have emboldened Iranian-backed militias to test Washington’s boundaries in both
Syria and Iraq.
More importantly, the US has refrained from aggressively retaliating against
those involved in the attacks against its bases. Instead of identifying and
punishing the groups responsible, through military or other means, America’s
reaction has been largely limited to targeting those doing the shooting.
Washington’s soft approach is primarily due to its fear of jeopardising the
nuclear deal talks with Tehran, as well as its desire to prevent military
escalations in the region.
It is not clear if the US’s lenient approach will allow the White House to avoid
these traps. But failing to make the price of attacking US forces intolerable
will almost certainly fail to mitigate the risks that American soldiers in Syria
are facing.
Copyright: Syndication Bureau
www.syndicationbureau.com
*Dr Haid Haid is a consulting associate fellow of Chatham House’s Middle East
and North Africa programme.
The Arab world's drama revolution
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab Weekly/January 15/2022
In the early nineties, a revolution in Syrian drama began. Within two years,
along with the launch of MBC and the proliferation of satellite channels, Syrian
drama evolved from limited productions intended for local television to a
full-fledged industry with remarkable quality.
The Syrian factor jolted Egypt's drama monopoly. The Egyptians resented the
unexpected competition. For a while, TV drama was synonymous with Egyptian
drama. Egyptians did not respond quickly to the challenge. They thought the
expansion of the drama market with the coming of age of satellite TV would allow
Egyptian drama to remain as undeveloped as it was.
Then, they noticed the diversification and widening appeal of Syrian productions
as these delved into the realms of fantasy, elaborate historical drama and
profound social issues. Egypt’s catch-up began and continued for a while, then
receded with the decline of Syrian drama after the outbreak of the civil war in
Syria. Since their competitor disappeared, why should Egyptian artists enhance
their production standards?
In the seventies, Lebanese drama emerged for a while. It showed impressive
elegance. There were a few works, such as "Azif Al-Layl" (The Night Player),
co-starring Hind Abi Al-Lama' and Abdel-Majid Majzoub, and "Bint Al-Bawab"
(Daughter of the Doorman) by Alassi Fernini. These were quality productions that
drew people’s attention. They, somehow, reminded us of the serenity and charisma
of the Lebanese diva Fayrouz and her songs. Then came the Lebanese civil war
forcing Lebanese drama to vanish from our screens.
There is no doubt that a significant number of Syrian actors were not happy with
the Syrian regime and the calamities that it brought upon the country, before
and after the outbreak of the civil war, there. But the choice that an actor or
actress in Damascus had to make was between the Assad regime and ISIS rule.
Siding with the regime was only a choice for survival and self-preservation.
The price that Syrian artists paid was quite high. Syrian drama was boycotted by
major Gulf television channels, which used to be among its leading clients.
Predictably, Syrian production declined.
Syrian artists took an individual approach to the problem. A few Syrian actors
were seen in Egyptian and Gulf drama. But this was not enough. Egyptians are not
known for making room for others on their TV screens. Eulogies for lost stardom
and the dangers inherent in Syrian artistic invasion characterised statements
from actors’ union chiefs.
Then, two significant breakthroughs occurred. The first was a systematic spread
of the Syrian drama industry into Lebanon. The second has been the political
signal received by the Gulf satellite channels encouraging them to be receptive
to the idea of joint Syrian-Lebanese productions and to stop worrying about who
supported the regime and who stood against it.
More than a decade of Syrian human presence in Lebanon, because of the war, has
changed a lot on the ground. Syrian actors no longer needed to forego their
accent in Lebanese drama productions. These are things that many Arab listeners
and viewers do not pick up easily, but the Syrians and the Lebanese clearly
distinguish between their respective accents.
At the end of the day, it became natural to produce a Lebanese drama with a
strong Syrian presence. The Lebanese actors themselves found room alongside the
great number of Syrian stars. The sophistication of Syrian production, writing
and creativity meshed in with Lebanese finesse. Story lines on the screen flowed
naturally. The Syrians were now walking side by side with the Lebanese, in life
and in drama. They used to be with the Lebanese before, but after ten years of
war, their presence was everywhere, especially in Lebanon.
The rest of the success came when the major satellite channels started again
purchasing Syrian-dominated, Lebanese-produced soap operas. Creative productions
whetted the appetite for more co-produced series. Furthermore, there was no
need, in fact, to call them joint productions, since they were produced in the
first place by Lebanese companies. There was no room for the anti-Syria
sanctions committees to rear their heads.
During the past two years, the Arab public has enjoyed the fruits of this
dramatic Syrian-Lebanese revolution. There was even more fun after the "Shahid"
TV viewing platform cast aside the "Ramadan Series" model, when all Arab drama
production is preserved for the Ramadan season. The fun increased even more as
the Egyptians accepted the challenge. Look at the great development in Egyptian
drama. It is a revolution of great dimensions that has tangibly changed the Arab
drama scene.
Good governance the key to Arab world progress
Hafed Al-Ghwell/Arab News/January 15/2022
A confluence of unprecedented challenges has added renewed urgency to finding
answers for a question that has long confounded politics in the Arab world.
Competing theories of power, fledgling hegemonies, and strange new diplomatic
arrangements are poised to deliver some kind of “new” Middle East in the coming
years. However, no amount of change has managed to substantially transform
governance in Middle East and North African countries. This lack of progress, or
even substantive discussion of such an important issue, is likely to imperil the
fresh surge of optimism in a region quickly embracing dialogue over force of
arms and ideological purity in order to resolve some of its most intractable
issues.
For the Arab world to successfully chart a path to enduring stability, leaders
and governments should not just lean on increased opportunities for dialogue
with each other, nor go all in on rapprochement at the expense of everything
else. Granted, most of the region’s ills are usually cross-border affairs, but
the key to ensuring that negotiated solutions can be implemented, and endure the
test of time, lies inward. Unfortunately, the internal dynamics of many Arab
states are dominated by intense rivalries and clashes between a new crop of
vocal, idealistic forward-thinkers with visions of a responsive state, and an
increasingly draconian cabal of ascetic hardliners tethered to antiquated
worldviews.
For decades, the latter have consistently failed to determine the exact form of
government that is better adapted to a fast-changing world, particularly in
terms of addressing the mounting demands of the former. The formula of
exchanging government services for public consent has become anachronistic and
ineffective, due to massive demographic changes and new societal behavior.
The past decade alone has dramatically transformed Arab people’s perceptions of
what their relationship is to the state, and what to expect from their
government. In the interim, the lunge toward illiberalism after the “Arab
Spring” turmoil appears to have nurtured an apathetic citizenry, resigned to
defeat and deference to paranoid regimes. However, as time goes on, the
continued failure to rewrite social contracts to deliver solutions instead of
woes will lead to another cataclysm that would dwarf the upheaval of just over a
decade ago.
Effective governance is important because if the Arab world is not keen on
becoming yet another backyard for some other great power, or a battleground for
competing interests, it must solve its own problems.
So far, however, there seems to be no awareness of the urgency of a rapidly
deteriorating situation. The new crop of leaders and the nascent political
movements in their wake keep failing to put together coherent and
self-sustaining visions of what most Arab publics have come to believe is the
role of the state, and what form of government can best deliver on their
evolving needs.
This was despite an overwhelming pro-democracy surge in 2011, followed by
prolonged internal conflicts, pandemic-induced crises, and endless political
malaise. In Libya, Lebanon, Iraq, Tunisia, Sudan, and even Algeria, these
internal developments were key turning points for the opposition to launch their
visions of the state, and properly center the need for governance reform in
their campaigns. Had they done so, not only would nascent political movements
have dominated national discourse, they would also have better managed the
transformation of popular mobilizations into serious legislative gains needed to
oversee the next phase of transition toward inclusive democracies.
Now, however, it is uncertain whether any organic momentum in the pursuit of
governance reform will ever emerge, let alone survive repression from the top
and apathy from the bottom. Unlike several years ago, thefew remaining
opposition movements no longer enjoy broad support from citizens still
overwhelmed by crises, and increasingly expectant of state intervention in the
consistent provision of social goods, services, access, mobility and security.
Instead, any plans to undo the status quo are met with either deaf ears or
derisive dismissals. As a result, an aging class of political elites and the
connected few simply continue perpetrating their vision, in which the state is
only a vehicle to uphold a limited definition of sovereignty, personified by
despots and accessible only to a minority.
The combination of COVID-19, economic disruption, political paralysis, and
social unrest, will again test the integrity of governance systems across the
Arab world. This is especially true in the civil war-torn states, where actors
are still unable to compromise on their visions of the state, and how best to
govern through a transition period. It is likely to be even worse for societies
that elected to defer their aspirations for hard-won inclusive governments in
favor of short-term stability and the comfort of the familiar.
For now, the region is limping along, despite successive pandemic waves, high
levels of unemployment particularly among women and youth, sluggish economies,
and growing pessimism about the future. Fears of climate change-induced mass
migration, food and water insecurities, renewed conflict, and more draconian
regimes cloud predictions of what the future has in store for a region that must
now fend for itself. Worse yet, the region's laundry list of challenges is even
less of a priority going forward as great power competition intensifies in the
Indo-Pacific and eastern Europe, while most of the rest of the world is far too
preoccupied with their own domestic woes to bother brokering fragile settlements
between squabbling rival actors.
Effective governance is important because if the Arab world is not keen on
becoming yet another backyard for some other great power, or a battleground for
competing interests, it must solve its own problems. However, effective
solutions are not going to come via an avalanche of high-level talks or
top-level settlements, while ignoring the glaring governance deficits at home.
Without reworking citizen-state relationships, establishing responsive state
structures, and restoring credibility to participatory mechanisms, any progress
toward regional peace and stability will only be fleeting.
*Hafed Al-Ghwell is a enior fellow with the Foreign Policy Institute at the John
Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Twitter: @HafedAlGhwell