English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 09/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Behold, the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world
John 01/29-34/29 The next day, he saw Jesus coming to him, and said, “Behold,† the Lamb of God, who takes away the sin of the world! 30 This is he of whom I said, ‘After me comes a man who is preferred before me, for he was before me.’ 31 I didn’t know him, but for this reason I came baptizing in water, that he would be revealed to Israel.” 32 John testified, saying, “I have seen the Spirit descending like a dove out of heaven, and it remained on him. 33 I didn’t recognize him, but he who sent me to baptize in water said to me, ‘On whomever you will see the Spirit descending and remaining on him is he who baptizes in the Holy Spirit.’ 34 I have seen and have testified that this is the Son of God.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 08-09/2022
Saudi ambassador in Beirut slams Hezbollah, defends relations with Lebanon
‘Learning race’ drives Israel-Hezbollah war of drones
Lebanon power company says protesters behind national blackout
Lebanon: Hariri Rejects to Attend National Dialogue Called by Aoun
Lebanon: Hundreds Protest Measures Targeting Unvaccinated
'Solution' Bid Reportedly Foiled despite Bassil-Hizbullah and Khalil-Miqati Talks
Bushkian arrives in Baghdad to hold talks with officials
Central Bank: Warnings before writing off the licenses of 188 money changers
Halabi: I will not allow the education file to be politicized
Geagea announces partisan mobilization for the elections: The battle is decisive for national salvation
Nasrallah thinks he is Lebanon/Farouk Youssef/The Arab Weekly/January 08/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 08-09/2022
UAE works on Friday for First Time
World Bank Approves $90 MN in Pandemic Aid for Iran
US Makes Reinforcements at East Syria Base
Sunni, Kurdish blocs back Sadrist Movement ahead of parliament session but
Turkish Forces Kill 8 YPG Members Trying to Infiltrate 'Operation Peace Spring' Area
EU Urges Sudan to Investigate Violence Targeting Protesters
UN Launches Sudanese Political Process
UN Security Council to Meet Wednesday on Sudan
Putin, Kazakh Leader Discuss Steps 'to Restore Order'
Russia Slams 'Boorish' U.S. Comments on Kazakhstan
Tunisian Politicians Accused of Electoral Crimes Face Financial Penalties, Imprisonment
Djokovic Held at Australian Airport for Eight Hours 'Mostly Incommunicado'

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 08-09/2022
Iran’s war machine pursues ballistic and nuclear supremacy/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 08/2022
Iran ups the nuclear ante in search of Vienna negotiations advantage/Nadia Al Faour/Arab News/January 09/2022
How Desmond Tutu’s wisdom can help us resolve conflicts/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/January 08/2022
Kazakh Protests Will Only Tighten Putin’s Grip/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/January, 08/2022
Unhappy Coup Day to All Who Celebrate/Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/January, 08/2022
Why Democrats Are So Bad at Defending Democracy/David Brooks/The New York Times/January, 08/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 08-09/2022
Saudi ambassador in Beirut slams Hezbollah, defends relations with Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/January 08/2022
Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Beirut said Thursday that Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah movement was a threat to Arab security but defended relations with Lebanon, describing them as “too deep to be affected.”The latest tensions follow a crisis between Lebanon and Gulf Arab states over the war in Yemen and Saudi accusations that Hezbollah was meddling in the conflict. “Riyadh hopes that the political parties will give priority to the supreme interest of Lebanon … and end Hezbollah’s terrorist hegemony over every aspect of the state,” Ambassador Waleed Bukhari said in a statement.
“Hezbollah’s terrorist activities and regional military behaviour threaten Arab national security,” he added. Despite Hezbollah tensions, Bukhari said that “the kingdom’s relations with Lebanon are too deep to be affected with irresponsible and absurd statements,” Saudi media reported, citing the ambassador.
Bukhari’s statement comes after Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shia movement, described King Salman as a “terrorist” and in a televised speech earlier this week, accused Saudi Arabia of exporting Islamic extremism. Accusations have flown between the two sides since a Saudi-led coalition intervened to prop up Yemen’s government against Iran-backed militias in 2015, in a conflict that has cost hundreds of thousands of lives according to the United Nations. Last month, Hezbollah dismissed Riyadh’s claims that it was aiding attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. In late October, Riyadh suspended diplomatic ties with Lebanon after the airing of statements by the then-Lebanese information minister criticising the military intervention in Yemen. Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister later said that Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanon and not simply the minister’s comments had prompted the Sunni kingdom to cut ties. Since the coalition’s intervention in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has regularly accused Iran of supplying the Houthis with weapons and Hezbollah of training the insurgents. Tehran denies the charges and Hezbollah has previously denied sending fighters or weapons to Yemen.

‘Learning race’ drives Israel-Hezbollah war of drones
The Arab Weekly/January 08/2022
Israeli security sources claimed Friday that drones captured after being flown across the border from neighbouring Lebanon have provided insight into the growing aerial surveillance capabilities of the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group. Lebanon and Israel are technically in a state of war and drones have become a regular feature of their heavily guarded border. Images extracted from one drone downed in August — shown to AFP — showed what the source said was Hezbollah drone operators and pictures of other drones, as well as an aerial shot of a northern Israeli settlement and military post.
The source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he believed the footage showed Hezbollah special forces training in how to use drones, which he said was the first such glimpse for Israel. A second source said that five drones seized last year — including a small observation drone downed on Tuesday — belonged to Hezbollah. “We are learning about the enemy and the enemy is learning about us,” said the second source, also speaking on condition of anonymity. “It is kind of a learning race between Hezbollah and us.”Israel is a leader in developing and using drones in warfare, but it is seeing its technological superiority challenged by arch-foe Iran, which is also developing unmanned aerial vehicles for military use. The drones used by Hezbollah were not always Iranian made, as they included commercially available devices, the second Israeli source said. “It is so easy to just take a drone from the store and gather intelligence and do whatever you imagine,” he said. In September, Hezbollah said it had shot down an Israeli drone over Lebanon. Hezbollah dominates Lebanese decision making in political, military and diplomatic issues, while country is struggling in the midst of a dire economic crisis. An Israeli source told AFP the economic woes did not appear to have lessened Hezbollah’s drone programme. The Lebanese militant party’s positions have so far prevented the cabinet from meeting and caused the country’s ties with Arab Gulf countries to sour. Critics say the party’s policies towards Israel are largely dictated by Tehran’s calculations.

Lebanon power company says protesters behind national blackout
AFP/Published: 08 January ,2022
Lebanon's state electricity company said Saturday that its power plants had stopped working after protesters stormed a key substation and tampered with the electrical equipment. The small Mediterranean country is already grappling with round-the-clock power cuts that last at least 20 hours a day due to a financial crisis that has hampered key imports, including fuel for power stations. Demonstrators angered by the blackouts stormed an Electricite du Liban substation in the Aramoun region north of Beirut on Saturday, EDL said in a statement. “Protesters disconnected a 150-220 kilovolt power transformer and opened circuit breakers connecting the Zahrani power plant to the Aramoun station,” it said. “This caused disturbances on the electrical grid... which led to a total blackout across Lebanese territory as of 17:27 (1527 GMT)”. The disruption will pile more pressure on private generators that are already struggling to keep up with the near-total absence of state power. Private generator owners have hiked prices and rationed supply in recent months, with costs surging after the government gradually lifted fuel subsidies. The average generator bill for a Lebanese family usually costs more than the monthly minimum wage of 675,000 Lebanese pounds -- now worth just $22 as the local currency hits record lows against the dollar on the black market. The international community has long demanded a complete overhaul of Lebanon's ruinous electricity sector, which has cost the government more than $40 billion since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. Lebanon has reached an agreement on bringing Jordanian electricity and Egyptian gas into the country via war-torn Syria, while Shia movement Hezbollah has separately started hydrocarbon deliveries from Iran.

Lebanese PM betting on 2022 budget to restore crippled Cabinet
Najia Houssari/Arab News/January 08/2022
BEIRUT: The dispute between Lebanese President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has disappointed those who hoped their row would subside and that Cabinet would convene, as sources close to the prime minister said that this year’s budget was ready and the government should take action. Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement have been refusing to allow the Cabinet to meet since Oct. 12, demanding the removal of a judge who is investigating 2020’s devastating explosion at Beirut Port. With Parliament expected to convene in an extraordinary session starting Monday, politicians appeared to mourn the Aoun-Berri settlement, which they felt was “stillborn.”MP Ali Darwish said that Prime Minister Najib Mikati was counting “on the sense of patriotism of those boycotting Cabinet sessions to attend.”Darwish is a member of the Independent Center bloc headed by Mikati.
“The discussion of the budget is a constitutional right that cannot be avoided,” Darwish told Arab News. When Mikati received the budget from the Ministry of Finance, he would call for a Cabinet session to study it and refer it to Parliament, the lawmaker said. “I think that attending the Cabinet session is necessary. Discussing the budget is a crucial constitutional duty to meet people’s needs and approve spending policy,” he added.
Sources close to Mikati said that the budget was ready and the government should take action, which necessitates a Cabinet session and opening an extraordinary session of Parliament since legislation is required to keep pace with the work of the government. The country’s election law has entered into force, and the Ministry of Interior has decided that elections will be held mid-May. The Lebanese people and the international community are counting on these elections to bring about change in the ruling authority.
That Aoun requested to include an item related to the election law on the agenda of parliament’s extraordinary session has raised questions about the possibility of disrupting these elections under the pretext of making new amendments. “The election law is now in effect and any amendment cannot be related to the date of holding the elections,” said Darwish.
Darwish said the fact that the Constitutional Council failed to accept Aoun’s appeal challenging the amendments to the election law meant it had approved the law as it was and Parliament would therefore not allow any amendment that would delay holding the elections. The head of the Lebanese Forces party Samir Geagea announced on Saturday “a comprehensive partisan mobilization in order to fight the next electoral battle.”In a partisan meeting, he called “to unleash campaigning efforts and to transform all party bodies into a mobilized electoral machine, since the electoral process is the only means to achieve national salvation.” The Lebanese Forces party is the first political party to openly launch its electoral battle in the country. “It is a battle that the Lebanese need to win to get rid of the dire reality that the alliance between Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement has brought upon the country,” Geagea said. “The chances of success are very great as public opinion has significantly shifted.”
He said the people had “sensed the danger” posed by an authority that only cared about its interests and “deliberately” led the country to collapse. Geagea ruled out the possibility of disrupting the elections. “We will confront any such attempt and the Lebanese army, along with other security forces, is able to guarantee elections are held in the best possible way.” While it remains unclear how to get people to even start thinking about voting in the absence of a social protection network for the poorest and needy families in light of Lebanon’s worsening economic collapse, the efforts of security services are focused on prosecuting illegal financial practices that manipulate the exchange rate and prosecuting gangs of robbers. The Higher Banking Commission announced that it would start issuing warnings prior to writing off the licenses granted by the central bank to 188 money changers for their lack of commitment to registering dollar-buying and selling transactions on the Sayrafa platform. The Lebanese Army Command announced: “A patrol from the Military Intelligence Directorate, supported by a force from the army, raided the homes of two Lebanese citizens in the Ghobeiry area in the southern suburbs of Beirut and arrested them for forming a gang that carried out armed robberies and sold weapons, in addition to participating in the Tayouneh incidents on Oct. 14, 2021, assaulting peaceful demonstrators, provoking riots and blocking roads."
It said ammunition, military equipment and drugs were seized from the house of one of the arrested individuals.

Lebanon: Hariri Rejects to Attend National Dialogue Called by Aoun
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
Lebanon’s former Prime Minister and head of Al-Mustaqbal Movement Saad Hariri rejected to participate in the national dialogue called for by President Michel Aoun, noting that such initiative should take place after the upcoming parliamentary elections. Aoun is expected to receive a similar response from the Lebanese Forces. In a statement, Hariri’s press office announced that the former premier had announced he would not partake in the all-party talks proposed by Aoun, because “any dialogue at this level must take place after the parliamentary elections.”Sources close to the Lebanese Presidency told Asharq Al-Awsat that Aoun contacted heads of parties and parliamentary blocs to invite them to bilateral meetings to discuss the possibility to hold all-party talks. In a speech earlier this month, the president called for an urgent dialogue to reach an understanding on three main issues, namely the expanded administrative and financial decentralization, the defense strategy and the financial recovery plan. While most political parties are yet to announce their official position on Aoun’s invitation, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri had previously asserted that he welcomed any national dialogue. The same stance was expressed by the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, Lebanese Forces Media and Communications Officer Charles Jabbour noted that the LF would not heed the president’s call. He stressed that the priority was to hold the parliamentary elections “to produce a new authority that enjoys popular credibility and that is qualified to hold a national dialogue leading to the establishment of an actual state.”

Lebanon: Hundreds Protest Measures Targeting Unvaccinated
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
Hundreds of people rallied in Beirut on Saturday to protest measures imposed against the unvaccinated, saying individuals should have the right to decide whether to be inoculated or not. Vaccination is not compulsory in Lebanon, but in recent days authorities have cracked down on people who are not inoculated or don’t carry a negative PCR test, The Associated Press reported. Saturday’s protest by nearly 300 people in downtown Beirut came a day after the daily number of new coronavirus cases hit a record 7,974. The protest came days after authorities imposed fresh restrictions — including the requirement of a vaccination certificate or negative PCR test for entry into restaurants, hotels and similar venues. As of Monday, civil servants must either be vaccinated or take regular PCR tests to be able to go to work. Many civil servants cannot afford to pay for regular PCR tests, given Lebanon’s severe economic crisis currency crash. “No to the dictatorship of vaccination,” read one banner carried by protesters. Lebanon, with has a population of six million including a million Syrian refugees, has registered more than 760,000 cases and 9,250 deaths since discovering its first COVID-19 case in February 2020.

'Solution' Bid Reportedly Foiled despite Bassil-Hizbullah and Khalil-Miqati Talks
Naharnet/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
Contacts are still ongoing between Free Patriotic Movement head Jebran Bassil and Hizbullah secretary-general’s aide Hussein Khalil as well as between ex-minister Ali Hassan Khalil and PM Najib Miqati in a bid to reach a solution for the government paralysis crisis, ad-Diyar newspaper reported on Saturday.
Ministerial sources told the daily that a consensual “format” is being mulled behind the scenes. The so-called format would not be depicted as a defeat for the Shiite Duo nor it would prevent the state budget’s approval, the sources added. This exit calls for holding a Cabinet session to pass the draft state budget with Finance Minister Youssef Khalil as the only representative of the Shiite Duo, the sources said, noting that the session would exclusively tackle the state budget. Al-Joumhouria newspaper meanwhile reported that the past few days witnessed intensive contacts aimed at reaching a so-called governmental-judicial solution for the crisis. “Top judicial officials promised senior governmental officials that the Court of Cassation’s general commission would approve separating the jurisdiction of the investigative judge (into the port blast case Tarek Bitar) from that of the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, based on a similar precedent in this regard related to the Bourj Hammoud waste incinerator,” the daily said. Optimism, however, “totally faded after the governmental officials noticed an evasion of the made promises and a deliberate attempt to block this exit,” al-Joumhouria said, noting that the top judicial officials started coming up with excuses related to Covid-19 infections. Sources close to Prime Minister Najib Miqati meanwhile stressed that that “the atmosphere is positive” as to holding a Cabinet session aimed at passing the state budget, revealing that the call for the session is expected to be made in the beginning of next week.

Bushkian arrives in Baghdad to hold talks with officials
NNA/Saturday, 8 January, 2022 
Minister of Industry, George Bushkian, arrived this afternoon in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, where he will hold talks with ministerial and government officials and in the private sector. The Minister will also inaugurate the second Iraqi-Lebanese Business Conference, which will be held on Monday at Babel Hotel.
Upon his arrival, a coordination meeting was held in the presence of the Lebanese Ambassador to Iraq Ali Al-Habhab, the Iraqi Ambassador to Lebanon Haider Al-Barrak, the FAO Ambassador to Iraq Dr. Salah Al-Hajj Hassan, the head of the Lebanese-Iraqi Business Forum Hassan Jaber, and the head of the Novelty Company, Bilal Mohieldin. He thanked the Iraqi government and its people for the warm welcome, praising the Iraqi support for Lebanon and commending "the depth of bilateral relations and the common determination to develop them." "We look forward to developing areas of work between Lebanon and Iraq, whether in industry or in other sectors, to push the Lebanese and Iraqi economy forward. We will also discuss during this visit the issue of transit, that is, allowing Lebanese trucks to reach their end destination in Iraq and facilitating administrative and routine transactions," Industry Minister explained.
"We will also agree to activate the industrial exchange agreement, knowing that the Lebanese industrial sector is very developed, such as the pharmaceutical and food chemical industries,” he went on. "We will work to activate the industrial exchange agreement, knowing that the Lebanese industrial sector is very developed, such as the pharmaceutical, chemical and food industries, and the import of raw materials from Iraq that the Lebanese industry needs," the minister concluded.

Central Bank: Warnings before writing off the licenses of 188 money changers
NNA/Saturday, 8 January, 2022 
The Lebanese Central Bank issued on Saturday the following statement:
"The Higher Banking Commission, headed by Central Bank Governor, Riad Salameh, convened on Tuesday, January 4, 2022, and took a decision to issue warnings prior to writing off the licenses granted by the Central Bank to 188 money changers for their failure to register the sale and purchase of US dollars on the Sayrafa platform." “According to the legal deadlines, these money changers will receive the decision of the Supreme Banking Authority within a period of 40 days, provided that the authority after the end of this period and in accordance with the law write off the licenses of money changers who continue not to comply with the circular that requires the registration of all transactions on the Sayrafa platform."

Halabi: I will not allow the education file to be politicized
NNA/Saturday, 8 January, 2022 
Minister of Education and Higher Learning Abbas Al-Halabi stressed that "the health and livelihood challenges are many, but we have studied the available options and we do not want schools to pay the price."Al-Halabi considered that the objections to opening schools on Monday are not all educational, but rather political. "I do not practice politics in the Ministry of Education. I separated the educational file from politics because I know that education is in danger and I do not allow this file to be politicized at all," Al-Halabi stressed. He added that the decision to return to schools, which he took in coordination with the Minister of Health, and which was approved by the President of the Republic, the Ministerial Committee and the Prime Minister, is purely educational.

Geagea announces partisan mobilization for the elections: The battle is decisive for national salvation
NNA/Saturday, 8 January, 2022 
Lebanese Forces Party leader, Samir Geagea, announced a comprehensive partisan mobilization to go into the electoral battle, as the only means that carries with it the path to national salvation. In a meeting with cadres in Maarab, Geagea indicated that this battle is the battle to save Lebanon from trying to change its identity and history, and it is the battle of the Lebanese to get rid of the terrible reality experienced by the alliance of "Hezbollah" and the "Free Patriotic Movement" and their allies. He also called on the people to bear the responsibility in this battle, because if they falter, this means that they will remain in Hell.
Finally, he indicated that the Lebanese army, along with other security forces, is able to ensure the electoral process in the best possible way.

Nasrallah thinks he is Lebanon
Farouk Youssef/The Arab Weekly/January 08/2022
If you want to know something about the fate of Lebanon, you should go to Tehran. This sick adage reflects the deteriorating reality and the collapse at all levels which the Lebanese face as their country has become dependent on a militia that has put its illegal weapons at the service of a foreign country. This did not happen all of a sudden. Rather, it occurred gradually and Lebanon, the state and the people played a major role in reaching this stage, or at least preparing the ground for it. It is a euphemism to say that Lebanon is a failed state as there is no state left in Lebanon.
When the Lebanese prime minister, who is unable to hold a cabinet meeting, says that Hassan Nasrallah does not represent Lebanon, he does not in reality put down Hezbollah's leader. Nasrallah would not take any pride in representing Lebanon. He, in fact, thinks and behaves as if his stature is larger than that of Lebanon, with a regional military force under his command that is beyond the country's borders. Its soldiers are fighting in Syria and Yemen and may be needed any moment in Iraq if the regime in Baghdad collapses.
Is there a possibility that the Lebanese state, through its government, can hold Nasrallah accountable, as he is one of its citizens? When Nasrallah lies, he realises that insulting the intelligence of those who listen to him has become a tedious exercise. Those people represent the political class in Lebanon, which is hopeless in terms of having normal human feelings. Money alone motivates members of that class. Since Nasrallah leads the militia that protects the interests of that class, it is not difficult for its members to sit down for hours with their heads bowed as they listen to Nasrallah talking on a screen. They do not claim to fathom what he says. They did not come to discuss anything, after all.
At an earlier stage, Nasrallah tried to humiliate them, but today, they are already, along with Lebanon, in a total state of humiliation. So, he looks for the shock value in the words he utters. From that perspective, he wanted the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to deny any connection to ISIS. Nasrallah's imagination is malicious, evil and despicable, but it is quite shallow. He always lied, not because he was immune from punishment, but because he held Lebanon in his arms and had already taken it to Tehran. The Lebanon of cedar trees, of the Phoenicians and that of the pillars of Baalbek, is not the Lebanon that Nasrallah placed in the hands of Velayat-e faqih (authority of the Shia clergy).
All that is being said today about the disarmament of Hezbollah is meaningless and is part of a past that has no future in Lebanon. Saying that Lebanon has become Iranian is not far from reality. The Lebanese are not required to learn Persian but the political decision-making in their country has become Iranian.
People are mistaken when they think that success in the Vienna talks could lead to a better situation in Lebanon. The opposite is true. Things will only get worse if those negotiations ease Iran out of its economic predicament. Lebanon will be part of the holdings of the Persian Empire, blessed by global capitalism and some socialist forces scattered across the globe. In this context, Lebanon will eventually not gain anything. It will just continue to slide into the abyss. This is because Iran wields nothing but a culture of death and the clamour of guns.
As for Nasrallah, in his lies, he does not cross the Iranian threshold. ISIS is a kind of Hezbollah, but with a different sectarian identity. Nasrallah wanted in fact to remind Saudi Arabia that he is the king of Lebanon. He wanted to say: "I am Lebanon"

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 08-09/2022
UAE works on Friday for First Time
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
Employees and schoolchildren juggled work and studies with weekly Muslim prayers on the first ever working Friday in the United Arab Emirates as the Gulf country formally switched to a Saturday-Sunday weekend. Some grumbled at the change and businesses were split, with many moving to the Western-style weekend but other private firms sticking with Fridays and Saturdays, as in other Gulf states. The weekly day of prayer has always been a free day in the UAE, which had previously observed a Thursday-Friday weekend until 2006. However, mosques appeared busy as worshippers carrying prayer mats arrived as usual, before many of them later headed back to the office. "I'd rather take (Friday) off," said 22-year-old Briton Rachel King, who works in the hospitality industry and has been living in Dubai for six months. "That is what we all know and love, having a Friday off and going to certain places that are open and we could do things. But now it is going to be Saturday." The UAE made the surprise announcement of the weekend switch for the public sector in December as it grapples with rising competition in international business from other Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia. Government bodies and schools will operate four-and-a-half-days per week, closing at 12 pm on Fridays for a fixed prayer time of 1:15 pm, whereas the Muslim prayer schedule usually depends on the position of the sun. Out of 195 businesses polled by human resources consultancy Mercer, only 23 percent were preparing to follow the four-and-a-half-day week, but more than half would switch to Saturday-Sunday weekends. "Luckily I have the same days off as my kids, but that's not the case for my husband," said Fati, who works in an international distribution company, asking not to give her full name. "He works for a multinational that hasn't changed its schedule for the moment. I hope they will do it quickly, otherwise our family life will be ruined."
'Feels a bit weird' -
Nearly a third of companies are worried about the impact of being out of sync with other countries in the region, the Mercer poll found. "We work a lot with Egypt and Saudi Arabia," said Rana, an employee of an events company who said some of her teams would have to work on Sundays.
Dubai's financial district was unusually quiet on Friday with large numbers working remotely, especially at a time of rising Covid levels when many children are also doing online schooling. "Today is the first working Friday, it feels a bit weird," said Ahmad Bilbisi, 34, a banking employee. "It makes sense to me, at least for the banking industry. We are now working on the same day as everyone else in the world." The new arrangement was a major talking point on social media, with one Twitter user complaining "it just feels so wrong".  "My body and mind have fully acclimatized to having Fridays off. I think today is going to a long hard struggle," the tweet reads. Sharjah, an emirate neighboring Dubai, has found a simple solution: mandating Friday, Saturday and Sunday as a three-day weekend.

World Bank Approves $90 MN in Pandemic Aid for Iran
Asharq Al-Awsat/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
The World Bank has approved $90 million in additional financing for Iran, to help fight against the Covid-19 pandemic, a spokesperson said Friday. The Washington-based development lender's board of directors approved the aid on December 21, a World Bank spokesperson said, which "will be utilized only for procuring additional lifesaving, essential medical equipment to strengthen Iran's pandemic response." "This funding will not go to the Iranian budget and all loan proceeds, as well as procurement and disbursements, are being managed by the World Health Organization," the spokesperson said. The World Bank had in May 2020 extended Tehran $50 million via the Iran Covid-19 Emergency Response Project, which the spokesperson said was carried out "on an exceptional basis" due to the pandemic, reported AFP. The spokesperson called Iran "the epicenter of Covid-19 infections in the region" and said quelling the virus there would benefit its neighbors, particularly as the Omicron variant threatens to cause a new wave of cases. "World Bank support for Iran's Covid-19 response will help mitigate the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the country as well as limit the spread of the disease beyond its borders," the spokesperson said. Iran has suffered nearly 132,000 deaths from Covid-19 and more than 6.2 million cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The World Bank spokesperson noted that "distribution and installation of equipment will take place at health facilities approved by the World Bank and will be subject to independent monitoring and verification."

US Makes Reinforcements at East Syria Base
London - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
International coalition forces led by the United States have taken measures to make “reinforcements” at their military base in northeastern Syria two days after coming under attack by Iran-backed militias in Deir Ezzor’s countryside, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Friday. “A convoy carrying logistic and military equipment has left the international coalition base in Koniko gas field heading to the coalition base in Al-Omar oilfield in east Deir Ezzor countryside,” reliable sources have informed the Observatory. “We can’t say definitively who caused them or why the attacks seem to have stepped up,” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said Thursday about the rocket attacks on the base. “It is certainly possible that it can be related to” the nuclear talks in Vienna or the two-year anniversary of the Killing of Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in a US strike at Baghdad airport. The Observatory said that “unidentified” drones renewed their airstrikes on Iranian proxy positions in the western Euphrates region, targeting military positions in Al-Tabni area and Al-Masrab desert in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor in the early hours of Thursday, causing material damage and casualties. According to Observatory sources, drone strikes were preceded by explosions, heard in several places in the eastern Euphrates area, near the coalition base in Koniko. eared to have reclaimed control of the streets of Kazakhstan's main city Almaty on Friday. Some businesses and petrol stations began to reopen on Saturday in the city of around 2 million people as security forces patrolled the streets. Occasional gunshots could still be heard around the city's main square.

Sunni, Kurdish blocs back Sadrist Movement ahead of parliament session but
The Arab Weekly/January 08/2022
The outline of a governing coalition has begun to emerge in Iraq with the success of Sunni forces, represented by Al-Taqaddom and Al-Azm blocs, in allying with each other, along with the two main Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which have bridged their own differences. The formations are about to form a unified delegation in government formation talks. Regarding the premiership, the Sadrist movement, which has avoided nominating any candidate for prime minister, is said to lean towards maintaining current Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi in his position, despite the objections of the Coordination Framework, which comprises Shia parties loyal to Iran. Sadr has warmly received Kadhimi, Thursday, in the Najaf governorate amid cabinet formation talks. Kadhimi said earlier that his visit to Najaf was “purely administrative and not of political in nature.” But Iraqi political sources said that the visit was not devoid of political significance especially considering its timing. They noted that Sadr sees Kadhimi as the most capable figure that could lead a “national majority government”, which he seeks to form. They attribute Sadr’s desire to hold on to Kadhimi to many considerations, including the current prime minister’s independence from political parties and his pragmatic management of crises during the past period. The soures add that Sadr and Kadhimi see eye to eye on many issues, especially security concerns, as the prime minister, much like the Sadrist movement’s leader, believes only the state should bear arms. Pro-Iran forces are said, however, to be opposed to Kadhimi’s nomination to a new term in office as they consider him to be hostile to their interests.
Cementing alliances
Iraqi political analysts say that the current arrangements by Sunni and Kurdish parties are a prelude to declaring the formation of a larger alliance between these forces and the Sadrist movement. The Sadrist Movement won the October legislative elections and want to form a “national majority” government that breaks with the consensus-based quota system, which has guided the country’s political process for years. Analysts indicate that the road seems clear for the Sadrist Movement to forge a comfortable parliamentary alliance with the Sunni and Kurdish forces, especially if it also succeeds in including independents. This may usher in a new political era where pro-Iran forces are confined to leading the opposition camp. They believe this emerging alliance is likely to break with the consensus-based system on which previous governments were built, which set the country on a slippery slope, where the political process was marred by ineptitude and the spread of nepotism and corruption. Analysts caution, however, that the change in the rules of political engagement is unlikely to lead to improved living conditions for Iraqis, especially since the forces that will lead the next stage had been part of the ruling system against which the Iraqi street rose up. The Sunni alliance of Al Takddom and Al Azm parties announced on Wednesday evening, will be represented by 64 MPs as the opening session of parliament takes place next Sunday. The creation of this alliance has been welcomed by the Sadrist movement and the KDP, which had been part of past efforts to bridge differences between the leaders of Takaddom and Al-Azm, former Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi and businessman Khamis al-Khanjar. This nascent Sunni coalition also enjoys wider Arab support. The announcement of the alliance between the two Sunni blocs had been preceded by a joint tour, which took Halbousi and Khanjar to countries of the region, including the United Arab Emirates, Jordan and Egypt. In a press statement, Halbousi called for joint action to ensure the stability and reconstruction of the country and for common positions to help achieve the unity of Iraq. Khanjar said in a similar statement that the alliance being formed is intended to serve Iraq and promote the rights of its people. It would remain impervious to the pressures aimed at dissuading the Sunni blocs from joining hands. Observers believe the success of Halbousi and Khanjar in overcoming the differences of the past is an important step that will allow their parties to play a pivotal role in Iraqi politics. They hope to restore a measure of balance within the political system and overcome the obstacles that have hindered their influence, including the dominance of pro-Iran factions as well as divisions within the Sunni camp itself.
Kurds united
New developments have also emerged within the Kurdish camp, specifically between the KDP and the PUK, which have reached a tentative agreement paving the way for the formation of a joint negotiating delegation. KDP spokesman Mahmoud Mohamed al-Khamis confirmed the plan to form a joint delegation which will participate in talks on forming a government. Khamis said the intention was to join an alliance with the Sadrist Movement and the Sunnis, as part of an effort aimed at putting together a majority government. The spokesman backed the Sadrist break with the old quota system, saying, “The Sadrists support the formation of a national majority government, which in their view will not include all parties, as used to be the case in the past following the consensus-based system. This means there will be government parties and an opposition.”This is the first clear and explicit statement on the KDP’s view of an alliance with the Sadrists. “We have already endeavoured and will continue our attempts in the remaining few days to enlarge the majority, but if this cannot be achieved, there cannot be an institutional vacuum. We need to form a government to resolve current problems and make a decision in this regard during the next few days, ” said the KDP spokesman. Observers believe that the road has been cleared for the launch of an alliance between the Sadrists, the Kurds and the Sunnis, noting that while the independents’ bloc may not join the alliance, it is likely to vote in favour of the new government in the parliament.
Last Thursday, Iraqi President Barham Salih signed a decree convening the new parliament in session for January 9. In it, Salih stressed the need to “meet national interests by forming a competent and effective government that protects the interests of the country and enhances its sovereignty, as well as protects and serves Iraqis,” adding that “this requires solidarity in order to implement the reforms needed for a stable and prosperous Iraq.”Early parliamentary elections were held in Iraq, October 10. The Sadrist movement took the lead with 73 seats out of 329, while the Progress Alliance won 37 seats, the Rule of Law coalition garnered 33 seats, while the Democratic Party took 31.

Turkish Forces Kill 8 YPG Members Trying to Infiltrate 'Operation Peace Spring' Area
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazek/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
Turkish commandos killed eight elements from the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the largest component of the US-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the defense ministry said in a statement on Friday. The elements were attempting to strike areas controlled by Turkish forces in the Operation Peace Spring area in northeastern Syria, the statement added. The 2019 Turkish offensive into northeastern Syria, code-named Operation Peace Spring by Ankara, was a cross-border military operation conducted by the Turkish military and the Syrian National Army against the SDF and later the Syrian army in northern Syria and to ensure the safe return of Syrian refugees. It was ended a few days after its launch by understandings between the US and Russia. Those understandings included withdrawing SDF units 30 kilometers away from the border with Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkish forces stationed in Azaz, in Aleppo’s northern countryside, launched a missile attack on Shawargha and Malikia towns in Sharan district in the countryside of Afrin. The forces brought in large cement blocks to Azaz, preparing to construct a wall of two kilometers long and four meters high from the national hospital on the outskirts of Azaz city to Al-Shatt checkpoint on Azaz-Afrin highway, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. They used large cranes and are conducting the construction work at night, fearing attacks by Kurdish forces that are deployed in Maranaz, Ain Daqnah and al-Malikiyyah villages in the northern countryside of Aleppo, nearly 500 meters away from the highway between Azaz and Afrin.

EU Urges Sudan to Investigate Violence Targeting Protesters
Khartoum - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
The European Union has urged Sudanese leaders to investigate the violence targeting protestors in the country, following the October 25 military takeover. “The EU reiterates the need for independent investigations into all deaths and associated violence, and calls for the perpetrators to be held accountable,” it tweeted on Friday. “Attacks on hospitals, detentions of activists and journalists and communication blackouts, must also stop,” it added. Sudanese security forces shot dead three protesters on Thursday during the latest mass demonstrations demanding a transition to civilian rule after a coup, medics said. The latest killings bring to 60 the death toll in a security clampdown since the October 25 military takeover, said the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors, which is part of the pro-democracy movement. Khartoum State’s health ministry said security forces raided Arbaeen Hospital in Omdurman, attacking medical staff and injuring protesters, and said the forces besieged Khartoum Teaching Hospital and fired tear gas inside it. In a statement, Sudanese police said the demonstrations “witnessed a deviation from peacefulness and cases of aggression and violence by some demonstrators towards the forces present,” citing a number of injuries among police and armed forces. The statement also said that three people had been arrested for the killing of two citizens in Omdurman and that 60 suspects were arrested overall. The Forces of Freedom and Change coalition, which had been sharing power with the military before the coup, called on the United Nations Security Council to carry out an investigation on what it described as intentional killings and raids of hospitals. In Khartoum, protesters tried to reach the presidential palace but security forces advanced toward them, firing frequent volleys of tear gas. Some protesters wore gas masks, while many wore medical masks and other face coverings and several brought hard hats and gloves in order to throw back tear gas canisters.

UN Launches Sudanese Political Process
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
The United Nations said on Saturday it would invite Sudanese military leaders, political parties and other groups to take part in a "political process" aimed at ending a crisis unleashed by a coup in October. UN mediation in the weeks after the coup succeeded in reinstating Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, but his resignation last week deepened uncertainty around Sudan's political future and a transition towards elections scheduled for 2023. Neighborhood-based resistance committees, political parties and other pro-democracy groups have carried out an ongoing campaign of protests under a "no negotiation" slogan, and crackdowns by security forces have left at least 60 dead. Unless a new course towards a transition and credible elections can be charted, more instability within and beyond Sudanese borders is likely, analysts and diplomats have said. "All measures taken to date have not succeeded in restoring the course of this transformation," UN Special Representative Volker Perthes said in a statement announcing the launch of the UN-facilitated process. "The ... repeated violence against largely peaceful protesters has only served to deepen the mistrust among all political parties in Sudan," Reuters quoted him as saying. Sudan's military, armed movements, political parties, civil society and resistance committees will be invited to participate, the UN statement said.

UN Security Council to Meet Wednesday on Sudan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
The UN Security Council will meet next Wednesday in an informal session to address the latest developments in Sudan as demonstrations against military rule in the African nation continue, diplomatic sources said. The session will be behind closed doors, the sources said Friday, adding that the meeting was requested by six of the council's 15 members: the United States, Britain, France, Norway, Ireland and Albania. A common position of the Security Council "is not expected, as China and Russia would oppose it," a diplomat said on condition of anonymity. Beijing and Moscow in the past have stressed that the situation in Sudan, which has been on the edge of chaos since an October 25 military takeover, was an internal matter for the country and did not threaten international security. The meeting will allow the UN special representative for Sudan, Volker Perthes, to brief Security Council members on conditions there since prime minister Abdallah Hamdok resigned Sunday amid protests against the junta. Hamdok had been the face of the transition to civilian rule launched after the ouster of General Omar al-Bashir, but concerns have swelled about a slide back to dictatorship. The United States and European Union warned Sudan's military against naming its own prime minister after Hamdok quit. On Thursday three demonstrators were shot dead in the capital Khartoum and its suburbs, according to doctors and witnesses, as people gathered there and elsewhere in the country to protest against military rule. Since the coup led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on October 25, the crackdown on anti-military protests has left 60 people dead and hundreds injured, according to the Central Committee of Sudan Doctors, an independent association.

Putin, Kazakh Leader Discuss Steps 'to Restore Order'
Agence France Presse/January, 08/2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held a "lengthy" phone conversation to discuss the situation in Kazakhstan following unprecedented unrest, the Kremlin said Saturday. It said that Tokayev informed Putin "in detail" about the situation in the country, "noting that it is developing towards stabilization," the Kremlin said in a statement. Tokayev also thanked the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance and "especially" Russia for its help in quelling the protests that broke out earlier this week. "The presidents exchanged views on the measures taken to restore order in Kazakhstan," the Kremlin said.The two leaders agreed to remain in "constant" contact and to hold a CSTO video conference meeting in the coming days, the Kremlin added. Long seen as one of the most stable of the five ex-Soviet republics of Central Asia, Kazakhstan plunged into chaos this week, prompting Tokayev to call in troops from the Moscow-led alliance.

Russia Slams 'Boorish' U.S. Comments on Kazakhstan
Agence France Presse/January, 08/2022
Russia on Saturday slammed U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as "boorish" for saying Kazakhstan will be saddled with Russian presence after asking Moscow to send in troops to quell unrest.
"U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tried to make a funny joke today about the tragic events in Kazakhstan," Russia's foreign ministry said in a statement on Facebook. "A boorish attempt, but then again not his first one," it said, adding that Blinken "ridiculed a totally legitimate response" of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. Kazakhstan appealed for help from the CSTO to quell unprecedented protests sparked by fuel prices that broke out across the Central Asian country earlier this week. It is not clear how many troops are being sent in the force -- which includes units from ex-Soviet states Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan -- but media in Moscow have said the Russian contingent is expected to number less than 5,000. "I think one lesson in recent history is that once Russians are in your house, it's sometimes very difficult to get them to leave," Blinken told reporters on Friday. "If Antony Blinken is so into history lessons, here's one that comes to mind: When Americans are in your house, it can be difficult to stay alive, not being robbed or raped," the foreign ministry said. It mentioned "unfortunate peoples who had the bad luck to see these uninvited guests at their doorstep" -- naming Native Americans, Koreans, Vietnamese and Syrians among others.

Tunisian Politicians Accused of Electoral Crimes Face Financial Penalties, Imprisonment
Tunis - Mongi Saidani/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 8 January, 2022
High-profile politicians in Tunisia, including former prime ministers, political party leaders and ex-ministers, who have been accused of “election crimes”, are facing financial penalties and prison sentences. If convicted, the politicians may also be barred from running in elections or holding public office in the future.
According to critics of President Kais Saied, opening the file of alleged electoral violations could eliminate competitors, who are expected to run against him in the 2024 electoral race, such as former President Moncef Marzouki and fex-PM Youssef Chahed. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, the vice president of the Independent High Election Commission (IHEC) said that the Tunisian electoral law calls for financial penalties against candidates who have committed electoral crimes, and prison sentences of up to five years for presidential candidates who received funds from abroad during the election campaign.
He added that the same law imposes a penalty of freezing membership for those who won the elections after receiving foreign funding, in addition to depriving them from running for elections for a period of five years starting from the date of the ruling. Saied had responded to accusations of receiving foreign funds during his election campaign, by saying that the only amount he paid during the 2019 elections was 50 Tunisian dinars (about $18). He also asserted that he refused to obtain the public funding, which is provided by the state for the presidential candidates. The Workers’ Party led by Hamma Hammami, who is accused of committing electoral crimes, said he was surprised that the Tunisian president’s name was not included in the list of beneficiaries of political advertising and illegal propaganda, despite the electoral irregularities attributed to his campaign in the report of the Court of Auditors. According to said report, Saied’s electoral campaign team had committed numerous electoral violations, in addition to creating 30 propaganda websites or accounts in Tunisia and abroad.

Djokovic Held at Australian Airport for Eight Hours 'Mostly Incommunicado'
Agence France Presse/January, 08/2022
Australian border agents held tennis superstar Novak Djokovic for eight hours at Melbourne airport, mostly incommunicado, before canceling his visa and sending him to a detention center, his lawyers said Saturday. Djokovic secured a Covid-19 vaccine exemption from Tennis Australia and the Australian government because he had tested positive for the virus in December, which should have qualified him for entry, the lawyers argued. "The date of the first positive Covid PCR test was recorded on 16 December 2021," his legal team said in a 32-page submission ahead of a federal court hearing Monday to appeal the visa decision. Djokovic, who touched down in Melbourne on Wednesday night after a 25-hour trip via Dubai, had asked for a time to rest and consult his lawyers the following morning, his lawyers said. But after a border official initially agreed, his superiors successfully pressured Djokovic to allow them to take an immediate decision on his visa, the lawyers said. Foreigners are still mostly banned from travel to Australia, and those granted entry must be fully vaccinated or have a medical exemption. The tennis star has been held since Thursday morning in a Melbourne detention center "notwithstanding his requests to be moved" to another facility to train for the Australian Open, they added. Although Djokovic has won a legal reprieve from deportation, it is unclear whether he will play in the January 17-30 tournament. If successful, he will be gunning for a 10th Australian Open crown and a record 21st Grand Slam title -- a milestone that Spanish great Rafael Nadal is also chasing. In an internal video leaked Saturday, Tennis Australia chief Craig Tiley said his organization had done "everything they possibly could."
- 'Unbelievable job' -
"There is a lot... of blaming going on but I can assure you our team has done an unbelievable job," he said in a video published by the Sunday Herald Sun newspaper. A second tennis player who was headed to the tournament -- Czech doubles specialist Renata Voracova -- had her visa canceled after initially being allowed into the country, her government has confirmed. She was also placed in the Melbourne center, and is widely believed to have left the facility on Saturday. AFP photo and video images showed a woman who appeared to be Voracova in a vehicle leaving the center. "They bring me food and there's a guard in the corridor... I feel a bit like in prison," 38-year-old Voracova told Czech media before her departure. Djokovic, an outspoken vaccine skeptic, thanked fans for their support on Instagram. "Thank you to people around the world for your continuous support. I can feel it and it is greatly appreciated," the 34-year-old nine-time Australian Open champion said. More than 100 fans and anti-vaccine protesters, who were banging drums and chanting "Novak", rallied outside the Melbourne immigration holding facility on Saturday.
- 'Making a stand' -
At an anti-vaccine rally attended by hundreds of people in another part of the city, some voiced support for Djokovic. "I don't want to see my grandchildren vaccinated," said Margaret Beacham, a 67-year-old former primary school teacher. "Novak is making a stand and it's a worldwide opportunity for him to say something about vaccination status and how ridiculous it is."
As much of the country tightened restrictions to battle an Omicron-fueled wave, the state of Victoria, where Melbourne is the capital, posted a daily record of 51,356 cases Saturday. The center holding Djokovic, previously the Park Hotel and officially known as an "alternative place of detention," houses about 32 migrants trapped in Australia's hardline immigration system -- some for years. Detainees cannot leave the hotel and nobody is allowed in or out except staff. The five-story center gained notoriety last year when a fire forced migrants to be evacuated, and maggots were allegedly found in the food. Djokovic's family have said the hotel is "dirty." Australian star Nick Kyrgios, who has feuded with Djokovic in the past, praised him in a news conference Saturday. "If he's allowed to play the Australian Open, I don't want any bar of him. I reckon he's going to be pissed off," Kyrgios said in Sydney ahead of a warm-up tournament before the Australian Open. "You don't become a great champion like that without being able to overcome some adversity like this."
- 'Rules are rules' -
Djokovic's detention has sparked international scrutiny, with the Serbian government demanding explanations. "Djokovic is not a criminal, terrorist or illegal migrant, but was treated that way by the Australian authorities which causes an understandable indignation of his fans and citizens of Serbia," a foreign ministry statement said. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has defended revoking Djokovic's visa. "Rules are rules and there are no special cases," he said. Judge Anthony Kelly warned the star's lawyers in a hearing Thursday that justice would move at its own pace through all necessary appeals. "The tail won't be wagging the dog here," he said.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 08-09/2022
Iran’s war machine pursues ballistic and nuclear supremacy
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/January 08/2022
The head of US military operations in the Middle East, Gen. Frank McKenzie, recognizes that Iran and its proxies have achieved “overmatch” — the ability to fire many more missiles than adversaries such as Israel and the US can shoot down or destroy. “Iran’s missiles have become a more immediate threat than its nuclear program,” he says. While its citizens starve, Iran has become a leading global missile producer, with the largest and most diverse arsenal in the Middle East, including thousands of ballistic missiles with a range of more than 2,000km. A disturbing report in The New Yorker argues that Tehran’s cruise missiles have fundamentally altered the balance of power in the Gulf region.
A series of Iranian tests in late December included the simultaneous deployment of missiles and drone attacks against the same target, similar to a previous Iranian attack on GCC oil infrastructure. Iran is meanwhile seeking to capitalize on Chinese technology to develop projectiles that can circumvent missile defense systems. Experts believe North Korea is now importing Iranian missile technology. “Everybody should know that all American bases and their vessels in a distance of up to 2,000km are within the range of our missiles,” bragged Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of Iran’s Aerospace Force. “We have constantly prepared ourselves for a fully fledged war,” he crowed, as if “fully fledged war” were an optimum outcome for the region. Meanwhile, the firing of rockets by Iranian proxies at GCC and Western targets in the region is now a near-daily phenomenon.
There are substantial increases in military spending — including more than doubling the allocation for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps —in Iran’s 2022 budget, despite its income estimates being based on the assumption of no new nuclear deal. A Washington Institute analysis concluded: “The Raisi government sees no economic urgency to making substantial nuclear concessions.”
Experts warn that Iran is a few short months, or weeks, away from nuclear breakout capacity, with increasingly advanced centrifuges enriching uranium to 60 percent purity. Former Mossad intelligence director Zohar Palti estimates that Iran would require just three weeks to produce sufficient fuel for a bomb.
Western officials are even less optimistic about extracting concessions from Iran on its ballistic missile program than they are about the nuclear program. Raisi declared: “Regional issues or the missile issue are non-negotiable.” Iran’s increasing reliance on drones, cyberattacks and unconventional warfare aspires to give Tehran a decisive military advantage over its neighbors. “Iran has proved that it is using its ballistic missile program as a means to coerce or intimidate its neighbors,” noted Biden’s nuclear negotiator, Robert Malley.
If diplomats and leaders in the Arab region and the wider world don’t rapidly get serious, Iran’s missile, nuclear and paramilitary programs soon won’t be an abstract matter of statistics and research data, but will be deployed in anger to rain death and destruction upon the region.
After the January 2020 US assassination of Qassem Soleimani, Iran fired a barrage of ballistic missiles with thousand-pound warheads at a US base in Iraq — the largest ballistic missile attack by any nation on American troops. Hours later, Iranian forces shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet just after it took off from Tehran airport, killing all 176 people on board. Coinciding with the anniversary of Soleimani’s death, there was a display in central Tehran last week of the rockets used by Iran in these retaliatory strikes. However, in the western city of Shahrekord, a newly erected statue of Soleimani was set on fire and destroyed by Iraniansclearly unimpressed by their leaders’ squandering the nation’s wealth on overseas warmaking.
Tehran’s military arsenals are shielded deep underground in massive complexes in its satellite states and in Iran itself. With these tunnelled “missile cities” stretching for many kilometers, Iran boasts the largest underground complexes in the region, housing both nuclear and missile programs. Albu-Kamal on the Syria-Iraq border is one of these sites. It is a major transit point for the transfer of missiles and munitions into Lebanon and Syria, and a site where rockets are upgraded to increase range and accuracy. In early 2021 Biden ordered the bombing of Albu-Kamal in retaliation for rocket attacks by Hashd militias in Iraq, but the strikes had negligible impact. “Without being able to crater the place, you’re not going to stop the flow,” one Biden intelligence official said.
Ironically, Israeli military strikes and sophisticated sabotage operations have simply made Iran’s proliferation programs more resilient, by necessitating the construction of massive defenses and the installation of increasingly advanced equipment. Israeli generals have expressed frustration at the Biden administration holding up the transfer of military equipment required for dealing decisively with these capabilities.
In an era when rogue states can menace global security with impunity, we require nothing short of an international compact regarding the balance and constraint of military power, and legally enforced respect for sovereignty. For decades China and Russia colluded to undermine international law, but with Russia sending thousands of troops into Kazakhstan and menacing Ukraine and other former Soviet states, suddenly Beijing finds itself encircled. All states benefit from a universally recognized system whereby no overmighty coalition of states or rogue entities can threaten the sovereignty of others. Even Vladimir Putin claims his aggressive actions simply seek to protect Russian territorial integrity.
When pariah states can build up immense military arsenals to menace their neighbors without consequences, the international system disintegrates. Whether with Khomeinist Iran or Nazi Germany, when we appease aggressor states, we ultimately find ourselves facing a monster 10 times its original size.
Only 15 years ago, the primitive Iran-manufactured rockets that could be deployed by Hezbollah and Tehran’s other proxies were the stuff of ridicule, but nobody is laughing now. In the 15 years since Iran was referred to the UN Security Council for its uranium enrichment activities — and years of negotiations with global powers,supposedly to halt Tehran’s proliferation activities — it has developed into a ballistic superpower. Vigorous ballistic weapons development and testing took place before, during and after Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal. The failure of global powers to recognize the long-term security consequences of what was happening under their noses has brought us to where we are today. This is not scaremongering, but recognizing reality and deciding how to act. If diplomats and leaders in the Arab region and the wider world don’t rapidly get serious, Iran’s missile, nuclear and paramilitary programs soon won’t be an abstract matter of statistics and research data, but will be deployed in anger to rain death and destruction upon the region. Do we seriously want to sit back and wait for this to happen?
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.

Iran ups the nuclear ante in search of Vienna negotiations advantage
Nadia Al Faour/Arab News/January 09/2022
DUBAI: Tehran’s proxies have been ramping up their activities on the battlefields of the Middle East in recent weeks. In Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, forces loyal to the Iranian regime have been busy, escalating attacks against US and Saudi targets.
One spark for this intensification may be the second anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who set in motion much of the chaos still ravaging the region. But some analysts believe the prime reason is the Iran-US nuclear talks that have resumed in Vienna.
As the talks progress, albeit painstakingly, Iran’s officials have been increasingly upbeat, believing it is on the verge of salvaging a deal that would ease crippling US sanctions on its financial institutions and political bodies.
An informed source has told Arab News that the nuts and bolts of a new arrangement between Washington and Tehran are now primarily in place.
One remaining obstacle is a demand by Iran that the next US president should not walk out of any new deal. Whether the US could honor such a pledge remains unclear. In 2018, US President Donald Trump scorned and abandoned the “one-sided deal.” Iran responded by ceasing its cooperation with international inspectors that kept tabs on its nuclear infrastructure and ramping up its enrichment efforts.
The current president, Joe Biden, has staked much of his first term foreign policy legacy on reinstating the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran. This has earned the opprobrium of regional allies as his officials persist with talks with Iranian hardliners.
Entifadh Qanbar, a former Iraqi spokesperson, said: “Iranians like to twist arms in negotiations. Robert Malley seems to be trying hard to appease the Iranians and, unfortunately, has the upper hand in the Biden administration when it comes to the negotiations. The Biden administration is coming off weak, especially in light of the chaos in Afghanistan after the US withdrawal.”
Dr. Ras Zimmt, an expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, said: “Looking at the recent attacks on Syria and Iraq, one of the main reasons it happened, I believe, is the second anniversary of the killing of Qassem Soleimani.” He said this hung a pall over the negotiations from the Iranian side. Washington’s response to the attacks on US forces has been a far cry from Trump’s reaction as Iran-backed rioters approached the US embassy in Baghdad two years ago, when he sanctioned the assassination of Soleimani.
Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi spoke on the anniversary of Soleimani’s death at a ceremony in a large prayer hall in Tehran. The president vowed revenge on Donald Trump, calling him the primary “aggressor and assassin.”
The Iranian general and his ally, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in the drone strike in January 2020, had been masters of the art of wielding powerful proxy forces in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen and also of bombing the US into concessions with low intensity – but high political impact – rocket fire. On Wednesday, an armed pro-Iranian militia called Gassem Al-Jabarayn claimed responsibility for Iraq’s drone and rocket attacks, which caused no casualties. The group posted online that they vow to maintain their attacks until there was a complete US withdrawal from Iraq. This group is believed to be a cover for one of the main Iranian proxies, whose influence in Iraq remains extensive as the central government continues to struggle to assert control.
Analysts in the region say the frequency of attacks in Iraq and Syria tends to increase whenever a weighty political decision draws near. Few such decisions have carried more consequences than whether to re-engage with Iran – an actor widely distrusted by the GCC and the rest of the Middle East.
To do so could be the biggest gamble of Biden’s presidency, potentially destabilizing bedrock security arrangements with core US allies, who remain averse to such a move without stringent restrictions to prevent even clandestine efforts to build nuclear weapons.
However, other commentators have played down the impact of the attacks on the Vienna talks.
Mohanad Hage Ali, director of communications and fellow of Carnegie Middle East Center, said: “These attacks are directed to serve an internal (Iranian) purpose and have little military significance given the absence of serious casualties. They are more useful in justifying the lack of reprisals for major attacks against Iranian forces and their militias.
“I see them as ineffective in pushing for a change in Vienna as compared to the actual progress in Iran’s nuclear program.”Rasha Al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi researcher on militancy and ideology, said: “The recent attacks are unlikely to achieve concessions given their marginal impact on US personnel and facilities.”
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby blamed the attacks combine on the hostility toward Washington’s continued presence in Iraq and the anniversary of Soleimani’s death. Whether the rocket fire improves Iran’s hand is open to contention. However, even the perception Iran aims to create of being able to bomb itself into a better bargaining position acts as a fillip to the country’s negotiators, who have long touted the virtues of “strategic patience” over the capriciousness of US policy. As the latest round of talks resumed, the US Special Envoy for Iran was in Saudi Arabia this week to talk with senior officials. Gulf countries retain a skeptical line on Iran, despite having embarked on a series of regional discussions at an intelligence level last year. Central to Saudi concerns is that Iran has refused to use the Vienna talks to discuss its ballistic missile program or its interventions across a region still reeling from decades of war and insurrection — much of it Iranian-led. “If the US does not maintain a tough hand, the region will sink further,” said a senior Iraqi official, “This is not a time for weak hearts.”

How Desmond Tutu’s wisdom can help us resolve conflicts
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/January 08/2022
Archbishop Desmond Tutu of South Africa, who died last month, has left a rich legacy in his struggle for freedom and human rights, but with an unusual toolkit — that of kindness and the power of forgiveness.
His immense sense of justice, spirituality and humanity was driven by a deep Christian belief and guided by the African philosophy of Ubuntu: “My humanity is bound up in yours, for we can only be human together.”
Tutu was one of the very few people who could be thoroughly immersed in politics without being tainted by it, and be able to fight against one of the ugliest forms of racist discrimination — the South African variant of apartheid — without being directly engaged in or ideologically supporting, even tacitly, violence against his white tormentors. To hold fast to such a moral stand takes a person of the innermost conviction and faith in humanity, even while living through the darkest of times.
Throughout the entire span of the anti-apartheid years Tutu shied away from the armed struggle out of idealism, not out of naivety, for the apartheid regime in South Africa was not defeated by being showered with kindness. He was full of praise and admiration for his close friend and comrade Nelson Mandela for leaving behind on his release from prison the anger that had led him to form the ANC’s military wing, and taking instead the route of reconciliation and forgiveness, rather than revenge after 27 years of incarceration in the most appalling of conditions. Indeed, Tutu never judged Mandela for taking the route of armed struggle in the first place.
Tutu’s most notable legacy must surely be his role in forming and chairing the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, with the aim of dealing in the most transparent and honest manner with the gross human rights violations and abuses committed during the apartheid era, and not only by South Africa’s whites. In doing so Tutu and those who supported the TRC opted for restorative justice over retribution and revenge, in the spirit of his conviction that there cannot be peace without justice.
Tutu was always convinced that apartheid, “because it was of itself fundamentally, intrinsically evil, was going to bite the dust eventually.” Nevertheless, he was forward looking and invested his boundless energy in search of ways for his country to emerge from the malevolence of apartheid unscarred by further violence and atrocities.
Retributive justice is tied to the notion that the perpetrators of crimes, especially those as heinous as those of the apartheid regime, should face criminal charges and, if found guilty, be duly punished with the full force of the law. Once that regime had toppled there was both a strong intellectual argument calling for retribution, and an understandable wish to see those who for decades had repressed millions of black South Africans face such consequences.
Tutu’s most notable legacy must surely be his role in forming and chairing the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, with the aim of dealing in the most transparent and honest manner with the gross human rights violations and abuses committed during the apartheid era, and not only by South Africa’s whites.
In contrast, restorative justice, as represented by Tutu and the TRC, did not focus only on establishing guilt, but equally on embarking on a journey of collective healing, for victims and victimisers alike. Healing in this sense creates a safe space for people to share with others their ordeals — and most significantly to do so in the presence of their erstwhile tormentors — and for the abusers to take responsibility for what they have done. Forgiveness in this context was not only an act of altruism by the newly victorious regime, but the best form of self-interest. For if, as Tutu said, we can only be human together, then forgiveness, even kindness toward South Africa’s whites, was also an act to help them “rediscover their humanity” for the sake of everyone’s common future. For many hundreds of hours, the TRC heard heart-wrenching testimonies that left not a dry eye in the room, whether of those directly affected by these crimes, those who committed them, or those watching the proceedings live on their TV screens at home. Tutu openly wept during these hearings, allowing himself and the rest of the nation to express their anguish as a result of the trauma caused by decades of despicable and violent racial discrimination and the scars it left, as a first step toward building a healthy society in which there is equality for all. By Tutu’s own admission, the TRC process fell short by not bringing to justice those perpetrators of human rights abuses who failed to take the opportunity to fully disclose their actions or were unable to prove that their crimes were politically motivated. Nor was any legal action taken against any of the generals and commanders who avoided the hearings altogether.
Truth and reconciliation commissions, in their various formats and with varying degrees of success, have been established in other countries that have endured conflicts and civil wars. However, the South African experience remains the most notable one, in its scope and its genuine efforts to reveal the complex truth of the apartheid era, and in creating a conducive environment for forgiveness as a major vehicle in the long-term project, as yet still unfinished, of healing South African society. None of its achievements to date could have taken place without the leadership, the charisma, and above all the humanity, of Desmond Tutu. The legacy of Tutu and the TRC cannot and should not be confined to his homeland, but should be applied to all conflicts, as all involve the demonisation and dehumanisation of “the other,” whoever that may be, as a license to dominate, abuse and kill them. All conflicts cry out desperately for a diplomatic solution, but equally if not even more so for a healing process between the warring parties. Just imagine, whether such a conflict be in Israel-Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, or Yemen, the immense contribution, as difficult as it may be to pursue, that a long-term project of truth and reconciliation would make toward the eventual peaceful coexistence of all concerned.
In the aftermath of South Africa’s seminal project, Tutu observed: “The raison d’être for this commission is opening wounds and cleansing them so that they do not fester. And saying, we have dealt with our past as effectively as we could, we have not denied it, we have looked the beast in the eye.” These words of wisdom should remain our guide and inspiration in dealing with conflicts, as there are many such menacing beasts who we too must look in the eye.
*Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. Twitter: @YMekelberg

Kazakh Protests Will Only Tighten Putin’s Grip
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/January, 08/2022
Protests that began in western Kazakhstan over a sharp rise in fuel costs have turned into days of upheaval, with demonstrators storming government buildings and the airport in Almaty, the country’s largest. That’s bad enough for President Vladimir Putin, who is wary of unrest on Russia’s fringes. But the crisis in what has been one of the region’s most stable countries is not about inflation alone. It’s a more volatile anger over rampant elite corruption, slow change and inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic — much of that directed at the 81-year-old former president and “father of the nation,” Nursultan Nazarbayev.
The parallels with Putin are imperfect but they are uncomfortable enough, and will only serve to tighten his grip over his own country.
Putin will be encouraged to bolster the state and his much-vaunted vertical of power further, eliminating all alternatives. The Kazakh government’s request for support from a Russian-led military alliance will also strengthen the Russian president’s hand in the wider region, leaving another neighbor beholden to Moscow, if not quite with the dependence of Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus.This is not good news for the West. Unfortunately, intervention from that quarter is unlikely to change the outcomes and could make them worse. Kazakhstan is strategically important, as a mineral-rich state sitting between Russia and China. But this is not a country torn by the geopolitical tensions seen in Ukraine or Belarus, both in the heart of Europe. Western criticism of obvious democratic shortcomings has long been limited. The US and Europe also have little leverage despite significant investments in the oil and gas industry. Clumsy intervention will simply feed claims that demonstrators are agitators, supported by outsiders.
The situation on the ground remains volatile. Protests have spread swiftly in a sparsely populated country roughly the size of Western Europe, spinning out of control into scenes of chaos. Brutal repression is underway. Despite early footage of police siding with demonstrators, the leaderless protesters do not appear to have the support of Kazakhstan’s security apparatus. Citing supposed acts of terrorism, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev took the rare step of requesting help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a loose post-Soviet alliance. He has promised to act “harshly”and he now has Russian “peacekeeping” troops to back him.
The crisis is also an unexpected headache for Putin and an unwelcome distraction. Ukraine and concerns on Russia’s western border remain a priority, and the focus of key talks next week with the US, NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. That said, Russia’s leader is likely to take away clear lessons from Kazakhstan’s turmoil.
First, it’s a demonstration of the perils of power sharing. Nazarbayev, who ran Kazakhstan as a fiefdom for nearly three decades ceded the presidency in 2019, but continued to set the political direction. It was supposedly an innovative gambit — a controlled exit in a region where autocrats don’t retire — and was posited as one of several potential paths for Putin. It’s proved a dramatic miscalculation.
Tatiana Stanovaya of R.Politik, a political analysis firm, points out Nazarbayev’s mistake in Putin’s eyes was to weaken the presidency. The subsequent debacle will encourage Putin to bolster the structures that support Russia’s own leadership, the security services and the state in general, allowing no alternative centers of power. Whoever runs Russia will control that machine — stability is paramount. After a year that saw the crushing of opposition in every sphere in Russia, it will mean only a more repressive and conservative system.
Then there’s the consequence of Moscow actually answering the Kazakh government’s distress call to the CSTO, testing a provision that allows intervention to assist with domestic unrest, under specific conditions. The Kremlin would no doubt prefer to avoid this situation, not least because it risks irking China at a delicate time. And Russia will limit the role played by its troops. Yet CSTO involvement creates a precedent and bolsters an alliance that has until now stayed out of other protests and border skirmishes; It allows Russia to play the role of regional protector — one that Putin relishes.
Kazakh tensions will only bolster Moscow’s interest in sealing a European security deal with the United States, Denis Cenusa at the Eastern Europe Studies Centre in Lithuania told me, a solution that in the Kremlin’s view would leave resources available for other geopolitical goals.
More twists will come in Kazakhstan. For one, there is the question of Kazakh leadership when the dust settles. Christopher Granville, a former diplomat and managing director at TS Lombard, argues that even with the immediate uprising dealt with, it isn't clear that Tokayev has the credentials, the elite support, to rule beyond the short term. Unlike Uzbekistan and others where handovers were abrupt but neat, Nazarbayev’s continued and uncharacteristic silence leaves a question mark. The presence of foreign troops becomes a key factor in this fraught political equation.
The West has scant hope of influencing developments. It may yet be pushed to do more to respond to brutality on the ground, but the desire and ability to impose any sanctions will be limited beyond a handful of individuals. One recourse available to the US and the European Union would be to tighten the money-laundering and other loopholes that enabled the wealth of Kazakhstan’s small political and economic elite in the first place.
Putin could certainly have read the protests of the past days as a prompt to deal with Russia’s own weak growth, stagnant incomes and inflation, exacerbated by efforts to create a fortress against Western sanctions. He might have seen the disturbances as a nudge towards domestic reform. Instead, Kazakhstan’s travails seem likely to encourage only the opposite, as he rectifies another autocrat’s mistakes.

Unhappy Coup Day to All Who Celebrate
Mark Gongloff/Bloomberg/January, 08/2022
A year ago today, a group of energetic tourists, decorated with bracelets and other festive garb and chanting amusing slogans, visited the Capitol to express their feelings about the prospect of Donald Trump no longer being president. In their zeal, they might have accidentally committed at least 174 crimes. Or actually it was antifa that did those. Would you believe it was the FBI?
Thanks to right-wing media, this is how an uncomfortably large number of Americans think about the events of Jan. 6, if they think about them at all. It may feel like shouting into the void, but it’s still worth recounting what really happened that day: The loser in the 2020 election urged supporters to disrupt the process of certifying his rival’s victory, as part of a broader scheme to overturn the results. It sounds like a coup when you put it that way.
And that effort is not over: Though Trump has decided to keep a low profile today, he’s still keeping the spirit of Jan. 6 alive, with help from almost every member of his political party not named Cheney, writes Tim O’Brien. His most fervent supporters are infiltrating local election machinery to lay the groundwork for a sequel. Trump basked in the mob’s adoration a year ago, and it’s just the sort of high he’s been known to keep chasing, Tim notes.
Reckoning with this truth is a task not just for Jan. 6 but for every day until the threat has passed. The same Congress that was attacked a year ago has been investigating the riot for several months, with plans to carry on for several months more. A better approach would be to get all the facts out as plainly and quickly as possible, Bloomberg’s editorial board writes, to give voters a chance to absorb and act on them. Law enforcement, including the Justice Department, will still be free to find more prison-y ways to hold coup plotters accountable. And the rest of us will be free to remember Jan. 6 was not overly rambunctious tourism but a possible dress rehearsal for the end of democracy.
Russian Undressing
Of the many weapons in Vladimir Putin’s arsenal — nuclear weapons, steely gaze, judo moves — cold weather is his most elemental and possibly potent tool. As new Bloomberg Opinion columnist Javier Blas notes, deadly Russian winters have done in Napoleon, Hitler and other invaders. And polar vortexes make Europe desperate for Russian natural gas, giving Putin political leverage. So far this winter, Javier notes, cold has been in short supply, a relief after weeks of panic about a European energy crisis.
But it’s far too soon to call Putin disarmed. Winter is still coming. Probably.
Putin and other autocrats in the former Soviet Union may never think in any terms other than conflict and competition. We’ll always have to worry about energy crises and border skirmishes as long as they’re around. But Leonid Bershidsky invites us to consider they won’t be around forever. He argues the West has an opportunity to improve relations with these countries, while appealing to their future leaders, by offering full membership in clubs such as Europe and NATO if they meet certain democratic standards. Maybe the ultimate weapon is kindness.

Why Democrats Are So Bad at Defending Democracy
David Brooks/The New York Times/January, 08/2022
When it comes to elections, the Republican Party operates within a carapace of lies. So we rely on the Democrats to preserve our system of government.
The problem is that Democrats live within their own insular echo chamber. Within that bubble convenient falsehoods spread, go unchallenged and make it harder to focus on the real crisis. So let’s clear away some of these myths that are distorting Democratic behavior:
The whole electoral system is in crisis. Elections have three phases: registering and casting votes, counting votes and certifying results. When it comes to the first two phases, the American system has its flaws but is not in crisis. As Yuval Levin noted in The Times a few days ago, it’s become much easier in most places to register and vote than it was years ago. We just had a 2020 election with remarkably high turnout. The votes were counted with essentially zero fraud. The emergency is in the third phase — Republican efforts to overturn votes that have been counted. But Democratic voting bills — the For the People Act and its update, the Freedom to Vote Act — were not overhauled to address the threats that have been blindingly obvious since Jan. 6 last year. They are sprawling measures covering everything from mail-in ballots to campaign finance. They basically include every idea that’s been on activist agendas for years. These bills are hard to explain and hard to pass. By catering to D.C. interest groups, Democrats have spent a year distracting themselves from the emergency right in front of us.
Voter suppression efforts are a major threat to democracy. Given the racial history of this country, efforts to limit voting, as some states have been implementing, are heinous. I get why Democrats want to repel them. But this, too, is not the major crisis facing us. That’s because tighter voting laws often don’t actually restrict voting all that much. Academics have studied this extensively. A recent well-researched study suggested that voter ID laws do not reduce turnout. States tighten or loosen their voting laws, often seemingly without a big effect on turnout. The general rule is that people who want to vote end up voting.
Just as many efforts to limit the electorate don’t have much of an effect, the Democratic bills to make it easier to vote might not have much impact on turnout or on which party wins. As my Times colleague Nate Cohn wrote last April, “Expanding voting options to make it more convenient hasn’t seemed to have a huge effect on turnout or electoral outcomes. That’s the finding of decades of political science research on advance, early and absentee voting.”
Higher turnout helps Democrats. This popular assumption is also false. Political scientists Daron R. Shaw and John R. Petrocik, authors of “The Turnout Myth,” looked at 70 years of election data and found “no evidence that turnout is correlated with partisan vote choice.”
The best way to address the crisis is top down. Democrats have focused their energies in Washington, trying to pass these big bills. The bills would override state laws and dictate a lot of election procedures from the national level.
Given how local Republicans are behaving, I understand why Democrats want to centralize things. But it’s a little weird to be arguing that in order to save democracy we have to take power away from local elected officials. Plus, if you tell local people they’re not fit to govern themselves, you’re going to further inflame the populist backlash.
But the real problem is that Democrats are not focusing on crucial state and local arenas. The Times’s Charles Homans had a fascinating report from Pennsylvania, where Trump backers were running for local office, including judge of elections, while Democrats struggled to even find candidates. “I’m not sure what the Democratic Party was worried about, but it didn’t feel like they were worried about school board and judge of elections races — all of these little positions,” a failed Democratic candidate said.
Democrats do not seem to be fighting hard in key local races. They do not seem to be rallying the masses so that state legislators pay a price if they support democracy-weakening legislation.
Maybe some of the energy that has been spent over the past year analyzing and berating Joe Manchin could have been better spent grooming and supporting good state and local candidates. Maybe the best way to repulse a populist uprising is not by firing up all your allies in the Northwest quadrant of Washington, D.C.
The crisis of democracy is right in front of us. We have a massive populist mob that thinks the country is now controlled by a coastal progressive oligarchy that looks down on them. We’re caught in cycles of polarization that threaten to turn America into Northern Ireland during the Troubles. We have Republican hacks taking power away from the brave state officials who stood up to Trumpian bullying after the 2020 election.
Democrats have spent too much time on measures that they mistakenly think would give them an advantage. The right response would be: Do the unsexy work at the local level, where things are in flux. Pass the parts of the Freedom to Vote Act that are germane, like the protections for elections officials against partisan removal, and measures to limit purging voter rolls. Reform the Electoral Count Act to prevent Congress from derailing election certifications.
When your house is on fire, drop what you were doing, and put it out. Maybe finally Democrats will do that.