English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For January 07/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.january07.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 07/18-30: “John summoned two of his disciples and sent them to the Lord to ask, ‘Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?’ When the men had come to him, they said, ‘John the Baptist has sent us to you to ask, “Are you the one who is to come, or are we to wait for another?” ’ Jesus had just then cured many people of diseases, plagues, and evil spirits, and had given sight to many who were blind. And he answered them, ‘Go and tell John what you have seen and heard: the blind receive their sight, the lame walk, the lepers are cleansed, the deaf hear, the dead are raised, the poor have good news brought to them. And blessed is anyone who takes no offence at me.’ When John’s messengers had gone, Jesus began to speak to the crowds about John: ‘What did you go out into the wilderness to look at? A reed shaken by the wind? What then did you go out to see? Someone dressed in soft robes? Look, those who put on fine clothing and live in luxury are in royal palaces. What then did you go out to see? A prophet? Yes, I tell you, and more than a prophet. This is the one about whom it is written, “See, I am sending my messenger ahead of you, who will prepare your way before you.” I tell you, among those born of women no one is greater than John; yet the least in the kingdom of God is greater than he.’(And all the people who heard this, including the tax-collectors, acknowledged the justice of God, because they had been baptized with John’s baptism. But by refusing to be baptized by him, the Pharisees and the lawyers rejected God’s purpose for themselves.)

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 06-07/2022
Pope’s January prayer intention: For those who suffer religious persecution
President Aoun signs decree calling on Parliament to exceptionally convene starting January 10 & ending March 21, 2022
Health Ministry: 7,247 new Corona infections, 18 deaths
Corona - Health Ministry: Registration of Influenza, COVID cases is expected, calls for no worry
Rahi before a Kataeb delegation: I refuse to question the holding of parliamentary elections
Aram I presides over Christmas Mass in Antelias: How can others help us when we are not helping ourselves?
Will Cabinet Resume Meetings after Aoun-Berri Phone Call?
Lebanon UN peacekeepers attacked in Hezbollah stronghold
UN Condemns Attack against Its Lebanon Peacekeepers
Family of Former Lebanese-American Hostage, Amer Fakhoury Sues Lebanese Government and Intelligence Agency Over Illegal Arrest and Torture/January 06/2022
I will continue blaming my own people, & my own camp, until They wake up/Jean-Marie Kassab/January 06/2022
Lebanon’s 2022 Elections… An Exceptional Juncture/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 06-07/2022
Statue of slain commander Soleimani torched by assailants in Iran
Iran seeking to prosecute 127 for death of top general
Washington Calls on Tehran to Exercise 'Nuclear Restraint'
Iran's Qaani Vows Revenge for Soleimani's Killing
Pompeo Defends Decision to Kill Soleimani
Loud Explosion Exposes Iran Guards Maneuvers West of Tehran
Israeli Strikes in Southern Syria
Washington Committed to Constitutional Declaration to Resolve Sudan Crisis
Russia Sends Paratroopers to Kazakhstan to Quell Deadly Unrest
Japan, Australia Sign Defense Treaty with Eyes on China
North Korea Says It Tested Hypersonic Missile
Communications Disrupted in Sudan Ahead of Anti-military Protests
Sisi Stresses Egypt’s Support for Chad During its Transition
Algerian Envoy to Return to Paris After Months of Tensions
Israeli Forces Kill Palestinian Gunman in West Bank Clash
Biden condemns Trump as a threat to democracy in speech marking one year since January 6 attack
Gantz, King Abdullah discuss regional stability
N. Korea Claims Second Successful Test of Hypersonic Missile
Canada/Statement on protests in Kazakhstan
Canada/Statement from International Coordination and Response Group for the victims of Flight PS752 marking two years since the tragic downing of Flight PS752

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 06-07/2022
America Is Not Leaving the Middle East/Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
Abu Righal’s Anxiety/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
The Missile Against the Loaf/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
Russia's Putin to NATO: Commit Suicide or Face All-Out War/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 06/2022
Attacks on US in Iraq meant to send ‘harsh’ message — without spilling blood/Yasin Akgul/Al-Monitor/January 06/2022
Dual citizenship changes Germany’s approach to migration/Faisal Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/January 06/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on January 06-07/2022
Pope’s January prayer intention: For those who suffer religious persecution
NNA/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Pope Francis dedicates his first prayer message of 2022 to combating religious discrimination and persecution, reminding us that religious freedom is not limited to freedom of worship, but is tied to fraternity. “How can we allow that in this society, which is so civilized, there are people who are persecuted simply because they publicly profess their faith?” asks Pope Francis in the video for his monthly prayer intention for January 2022. In his message released on Tuesday, the Holy Father says that persecuting people simply because they publicly profess their faith is “inhuman” and “insane.”
Pope Francis emphasizes that “religious freedom is not limited to freedom of worship,” but “makes us appreciate others in their differences and recognize them as true brothers and sisters.” Even substantial differences, such as religious differences, should “not obscure the great unity of being brothers and sisters.”
During this first month of 2022, Pope Francis invites us to pray “that those who suffer discrimination and suffer religious persecution, may find in the societies in which they live the rights and dignity that comes from being brothers and sisters.” --- [Vatican News]

President Aoun signs decree calling on Parliament to exceptionally convene starting January 10 & ending March 21, 2022
NNA/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed today Decree No. 8662 dated 06/01/2022.  This decree calls on the Parliament to hold an exceptional session round, to be opened on 10/1//2022 and concluded on 21/3/2022 according to a specific work program.  
The decree was signed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
 Text: “The President of the Republic
 Based on the Constitution, specifically Article 33,
Upon the proposal of the Prime Minister,
Draws the following:
Article One: The House of Representatives is called to an extraordinary session that will open on 10/1/2022 and conclude on 21/3/2022.
Article Two: The program of work of this exceptional convening is determined by the following:
 -The ratified laws that the President of the Republic may request to be reconsidered.
 -Urgent bills or proposals related to parliamentary elections.
 −Bills that will be referred to Parliament.
 −Drafts or proposals of urgent and necessary laws related to necessary reforms, the financial recovery plan, or the urgent living conditions that the Council’s office decides to submit to the Parliament, especially the following laws:
 ➢ Proposing a law to extend the work of Law No. 200/2020.
 ➢ Proposing a law related to setting exceptional and temporary controls on bank transfers.
 ➢ Proposing a law to restore funds transferred abroad.
 - Two draft laws on the general budget for the years 2021 and 2022.
 - Holding a government accountability session and answering questions or interrogations directed to the government.
Article Three: This decree shall be published and notified as needed.
Issued by the President of the Republic, Baabda, on 01/06/2022
Signature: Michel Aoun
Prime Minister
Signed: Muhammad Najib Mikati. ---- [Presidency Information Office]

Health Ministry: 7,247 new Corona infections, 18 deaths
NNA /Thursday, 6 January, 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health recorded a new increase in the percentage of positive tests, reaching 7,247 cases on Thursday, thus raising the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 753,879.
The report added that 18 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Corona - Health Ministry: Registration of Influenza, COVID cases is expected, calls for no worry
NNA/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Ministry of Public Health’s media office issued a clarification statement on Thursday, explaining that "recording cases of double infection, i.e. influenza virus and SARS-CoV2 virus, is expected and not worrisome since double infections with respiratory viruses are normal and can occur."
The statement added that "in Lebanon, as in the rest of the world, cases of double infection have been detected, and according to the routine procedures adopted, samples of infected cases are examined at the National Influenza Center. Additionally, the Public Health Ministry sends samples of infected cases to a reference laboratory in the United Kingdom for examination, in accordance with the quality control and strain exchange program which has been in place since 2015.”

Rahi before a Kataeb delegation: I refuse to question the holding of parliamentary elections
NNA /Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, received today a Lebanese Kataeb Party delegation, including heads and branch officials in the regions of Keserwan al-Ftouh and Jbeil, led by the Party's Deputy Chief Salim al-Sayegh, who came to express their well-wishes to the Patriarch on the occasions of Christmas and New Year.  In his word before the delegation, the Patriarch stressed firm keenness on preserving Lebanon as a country of value and civilization, and on the active role it will continue to play despite everything. “Today we live in this fateful stage, and we are preparing for parliamentary and presidential elections, and here I refuse to question whether the parliamentary elections will occur, for they will surely take place in May, just as the presidential elections will take place in October…We must be ready to fight for our cause,” al-Rahi asserted.
The Patriarch thanked the Kataeb delegation for their cherished visit, praising their role and principles in serving Lebanon as a one nation.

Aram I presides over Christmas Mass in Antelias: How can others help us when we are not helping ourselves?
NNA/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Armenian Catholicos Aram I presided today over Christmas Mass at “St. Gregory the Illuminator Cathedral” in Antelias, with the participation of a large crowd of bishops, clerics, dignitaries and believers. In his religious homily, Aram I said: “Lebanon stands at fateful crossroads in its history. Are the people in power aware of the tragedy that the Lebanese suffer from? Do officials know that poverty and disease are getting deeper and deeper into people's lives and immigration is increasing at an alarming rate?”He added: “It is no longer possible to remain silent about these tragedies and miserable conditions, as the people in power bear responsibility and must be held accountable by the people.” “Lebanon, which was among the pioneers in progress and prosperity, has become one of the most backward, poor, politically lost and socially disastrous countries,” Aram I noted regrettably. “Tragedies and social problems haunt Lebanese families, so how can we expect others to help us when we are not helping ourselves?” he questioned. Aram I concluded by calling on "political officials and people of authority and sects to work together to find a way out of the current impasse and the danger that threatens of a total collapse."

Will Cabinet Resume Meetings after Aoun-Berri Phone Call?
Naharnet/Thursday, 6 January, 2022 
A new settlement might have been reached regarding the resumption of Cabinet sessions, media reports said on Thursday, although some sources denied the possibility. “The solution efforts are based on launching (an extraordinary legislative) session before holding a Cabinet session and a (national) dialogue table,” al-Liwaa newspaper reported. Quoting presidential sources, the daily said President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib Miqati agreed Wednesday in the Baabda meeting and the subsequent call with Berri that the Cabinet session would be exclusively dedicated to discussing the 2022 draft state budget. The PSP’s al-Anbaa news portal for its part said that the Shiite Duo’s participation in such a session might be limited to Finance Minister Youssef Khalil, whose presence would be necessary in a session discussing the state budget.“This means that the government will hold a single session and that the crisis will persist,” al-Anbaa added. An-Nahar newspaper had reported Wednesday that efforts to find a short-term settlement had started prior to Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s fiery speech. Speaking to Asharq al-Awsat newspaper, Shiite Duo sources said the phone call between Aoun and Berri took place at Miqati’s request and exclusively tackled the issue of launching an extraordinary legislative session. The sources also ruled out a “bargain” between the port probe and government files while describing the Aoun-Berri-Miqati talks as “important.”“We cannot speak of a major settlement involving all the pending topics and issues until the moment,” the sources added. MP Qassem Hashem of Berri’s bloc meanwhile denied “all the reports about a bargain or deal over the pending files.”“The discussions did not tackle any Cabinet session, but the issue might develop in the coming period,” Hashem added.

Lebanon UN peacekeepers attacked in Hezbollah stronghold
UNITED NATIONS, New York/Thursday, 6 January, 2022 
The United Nations slammed as "unacceptable" an overnight attack against peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Wednesday. The incident happened in Bint Jbeil a Hezbollah stronghold in South Lebanon. The peacekeepers, members of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), were attacked late Tuesday night by "unknown perpetrators," said the UN spokesman. "Their UN vehicles were vandalised and official items were stolen," Dujarric said, without specifying the nature of the damage or the state of the victims. He noted that the peacekeepers were not on private property or taking photos, "contrary to some subsequent media disinformation."Instead, they were en route to meet Lebanese Armed Forces members for a "routine patrol," he said. "The denial of UNIFIL's freedom of movement and any aggression against those serving the cause of peace is unacceptable," said Dujarric, before calling on the Lebanese government to "investigate quickly and thoroughly and prosecute all those responsible for these crimes."UNIFIL, comprised of about 13,000 UN peacekeepers, has operated in southern Lebanon since 1978 and is responsible for monitoring the ceasefire along the border with Israel. Scuffles with UN peacekeepers are not uncommon since the peacekeeping force was expanded following the 2006 war between Israel and the Lebanese militant Hezbollah group. Local media reported that residents of the southern town of Bint Jbeil scuffled with Irish peacekeepers who, they said, were taking photographs of residential homes. The reports added that the UN force was not accompanied by Lebanese troops. The UN calls on all parties to respect the freedom of movement of UN peacekeepers which is required under the status of forces agreement between the UN and the government of Lebanon and by a 2006 UN Security Council resolution, Dujarric said. Bint Jbeil is a Hezbollah stronghold and large parts of it were destroyed during the 2006 war. Ardiel said that contrary to the disinformation being spread, the peacekeepers were not taking photos and were not on private property. She added that the peacekeepers were on their way to meet members of the Lebanese army for a routine patrol. “UNIFIL condemns attacks on men and women serving the cause of peace, which are violations of both Lebanese and international law,” Kandice Ardiel, a UNIFIL press official said, adding that UNIFIL also condemns those who manipulate local residents to serve their purposes. A similar incident with peacekeepers in south Lebanon late last year was condemned by Lebanon’s foreign ministry.

UN Condemns Attack against Its Lebanon Peacekeepers
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
The United Nations slammed as "unacceptable" an overnight attack against peacekeepers in southern Lebanon, spokesman Stephane Dujarric said Wednesday. The peacekeepers -- members of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) -- were attacked late Tuesday night by "unknown perpetrators," he said. "Their UN vehicles were vandalized and official items were stolen," Dujarric said, without specifying the nature of the damage or the state of the victims. He noted that the peacekeepers were not on private property or taking photos, "contrary to some subsequent media disinformation," AFP reported. Instead, they were en route to meet Lebanese Armed Forces members for a "routine patrol," he said. "The denial of UNIFIL's freedom of movement and any aggression against those serving the cause of peace is unacceptable," said Dujarric, before calling on the Lebanese government to "investigate quickly and thoroughly, and prosecute all those responsible for these crimes." UNIFIL -- comprised of about 13,000 UN peacekeepers -- has operated in southern Lebanon since 1978, and is responsible for monitoring the ceasefire along the border with Israel.

Family of Former Lebanese-American Hostage, Amer Fakhoury Sues Lebanese Government and Intelligence Agency Over Illegal Arrest and Torture/January 06/2022
Legal Background Of The Case”.
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105359/%d8%b9%d8%a7%d8%a6%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%85%d8%b1-%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%a7%d8%b6%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%88%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%a8%d9%86%d8%a7/
Family of Late Amer Fakhoury, Detained and Brutalized in Beirut in 2019, Charge Lebanese Officials Were Ordered By Iran to Take American Hostage for Trade Over American Held Hezbollah Operative Kassim Tajideen.
(Washington DC) The family of a deceased Lebanese-American citizen has sued the Lebanese government along with its GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF GENERAL SECURITY in the United States District Court in Washington, D.C. alleging that high ranking Lebanese intelligence officials were involved in his illegal detention and torture two years ago.
The decedent, Amer Farkoury, a former resident of New Hampshire, was arrested and brutalized at a Lebanese intelligence prison in September 2019 when he returned to his birth country on a vacation visit to see his brothers and sisters. Fakhoury’s American based family had previously sued the government of Iran in federal court, charging that Iranian officials, through Tehran’s proxy the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which controls and dominates Lebanon’s political apparatus today, ordered the Lebanese intelligence agency to detain and torture Fakhoury in 2019. The Iranians were hoping to pressure the Trump Administration to trade the captive American for a Hezbollah operative, Kassim Tajideen, a Lebanese national who was imprisoned in the United States for his role in financing Hezbollah terrorist activities around the world.
The Fakhoury family filed a suit against the government of Iran last year. The family is represented in the proceedings by Robert J. Tolchin of the Berkman Law Office in New York.
Fakhoury had been a member of the Lebanese Christian faction’s South Lebanese Army (SLA) in the 1970s and 80s which opposed and fought against Islamic militias and the PLO. The SLA was supported at the time by Israel. When the Israeli army, which had occupied South Lebanon starting in 1982, decided to withdraw from the country, many SLA members feared for their lives. Fakhoury, like many other Christian service men, decided to flee Lebanon. Eventually he was able to secure visas to bring his wife and family to the US. Fakhoury had not returned to Lebanon for over twenty years.
In the intervening years since the Israeli withdrawal, Lebanon has lost its independence and fallen under the influence and control of the Shiite regime in Iran. Tehran utilizes the powerful Islamic terrorist organization, Hezbollah, based in South Lebanon to carry out its dictates and dominate Lebanese politics and government policy. Today, Hezbollah and Iran are considered the true rulers of Lebanon.
After his unlawful arrest and torture at the hands of the GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF GENERAL SECURITY in Beirut, Fakhoury developed Lymphoma which went untreated by his Lebanese captors. He was eventually freed in a dramatic American military rescue operation in Beirut and returned to the US. Tragically, after reuniting with his family, he died from cancer in August 2020.
Under normal circumstances, the family would not have been enabled to sue the Lebanese government, as it has sovereign immunity and cannot be named as a defendant in US courts. The government of Iran, contrarily, could be sued by the family as it’s activities fall under an exception in US law which permits American citizens to bring civil actions against regimes designated by the US as “state sponsors of terrorism.” Iran has been designated by the State Department as a terror state since 1979.
As such, the Lebanese government remained shielded from the litigation despite its central role in Fakhoury’s torture. Remarkably however, Lebanon and its GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF GENERAL SECURITY recently filed a motion…

سأستمر في إلقاء اللوم على شعبي وعلى من يدعون أنهم سياديون حتى يستفيقوا من غيبوتهم
I will continue blaming my own people, & my own camp, until They wake up
Jean-Marie Kassab/January 06/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105378/jean-marie-kassab-i-will-continue-blaming-my-own-people-my-own-camp-until-they-wake-up-%d8%b3%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%b3%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85/
I am often blamed for attacking and blaming my own people, my own camp, when the situation is getting worse while neglecting to unleash hell over the Iranian occupant.
Be assured: I will continue to do that until my own people wake up. I will unleash hell on the sovereigntists until they move and do something helpful instead of releasing stupid declarations and tweets. Tweets are for birds. We are humans, we fight or else we will become slaves to our own wellbeing and safety bubble. But mind you, even those are being threatened by the Iranians and their collaborators.
Enough talk. Enough bullshit. Enough me and my talks.
I have declared yesterday that my home is an Iranian free territory. The feeling was great. People liked the idea but did not reciprocate. Mostly from fear. Imagine thousands of such homes declared as such. Balconies with the Lebanese flag. Balconies with slogans like “this is a free Lebanon territory”. Building entrances with equivalent signs. Next to each other these flags will gather a lot of territory, of free Lebanon.
That could be a substantial step towards the real liberation.
Fear not: Get yourself a flag and do that. Print up such a slogan and do it. Take a picture of your balcony and saturate the social media with it.
Vive la Resistance
Vive le Liban
Jean-Marie Kassab
Task Force Lebanon.

Lebanon’s 2022 Elections… An Exceptional Juncture
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
Some friends, as they were commenting on the 2009 parliamentary election results, reminded me that Hezbollah “broke its promise… ‘whoever wins should rule’.” Instead, it imposed its blocking third on the first government formed after the elections, only to topple it the moment the head of that government, Saad Hariri, entered the White House. He was the country’s prime minister when he was received by President Obama and left the prime minister of a resigned government!
A friend drew my attention to Naim Qassem’s latest statements, in which he discussed the prospect of his party losing its parliamentary majority in the elections scheduled for May 15, that is, if they don’t conjure up excuses to postpone it. Qassem said that “the elections are not a race for the parliamentary majority. For the country’s balances are not built through the power balance in the parliament; rather, they are linked to domestic and foreign balances that will have a direct impact on who is chosen as the next president.”
Many of my friends talked about the Hezbollah using its arsenal to terrorize, the repeated threats of 100,000 armed men and 150,000 missiles, and the position this organization occupies within the Velayat-e Faqih regime… Hezbollah is the jewel in the six army crown Tehran built to receive the first blow in the event that the Islamic Republic is targeted by a military attack. Thus, it would be naive to think that this organization could back down and accept a different state of affairs. After all, Hezbollah had no qualms about tearing up the region’s map and traversing borders until it reached Yemen.
We can be sure that Nasrallah had been confident that he would win the parliamentary majority in 2009 and made his pledge for that reason. When his hopes were dashed, he was met halfway under the slogan “we are all under Lebanon’s skies.” Those who raised that slogan disregarded the will of the majority of the Lebanese. Thus, when Hezbollah and their allies toppled the majority government and Aoun announced, on their behalf, that they had booked its prime minister, Saad Hariri, a “one-way ticket,” the latter’s popular base did not protect him because he had abandoned it. As for the question of weapons, it is fundamental and requires contemplation, insistence on peace and that candidates be selected well. Qassem’s concern has prompted those who are keen on retrieving the hijacked state to leave the pavement of history and stop waiting “until all the corpses have passed.”
As far as the “Octoberist” forces, these elections have been the first juncture in which political forces of change associated with the October 17 revolution have been preparing for since the beginning. This revolution, which engrained a popular awareness of citizens’ rights and demonstrated the significance of the voices of each of the hundreds of thousands who distanced themselves from the primordial affiliations that had been imposed on them when they broke with intolerance and sectarianism. Today, these forces are facing a battle that has been forced on them against “political trash,” as former Prime Minister Tammam Salam put it. It is the fruit of a mafia alliance that brought money and the war’s militias together, tightening its grip on power since the civil war ended. It has been facilitating Hezbollah’s leadership of the country and that leadership’s consolidation for decades, going as far - since the 2016 deal to elect its only candidate as president of the republic - as unequivocally accepting its role as a fact of life.
As for the battle’s program, it is extremely clear. It is founded on the repudiation of the state being run like a farmhouse and the regime of sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing. Topping its list of goals is pushing back against the efforts to establish a police state that protects the tyrants, as is rejecting the scheme to keep Lebanon isolated from its surroundings and under the thumb of the “axis of resistance”. The program also demands compliance with the constitution, which has been suspended since the Syrian regime established its military control over Lebanon. The aim is to give rise to a state of laws and justice, one that will extend its sovereignty to encompass the entire country and open the door to a time of accountability, an independent judiciary retrieving citizens’ rights. Nonetheless, it is valid to ask: can the elections create this kind of shift in Lebanon… take it to the rosey situation described above?
In all likelihood, if the political and popular rejection of Hezbollah and its project that its parliamentary majority (currently 72 deputies out of 128) had kept under wraps is released through the ballot box, choosing figures from the October revolution unequivocal about the priority of restoring the state hijacked by weapons, corruption and sectarianism - i.e., rejecting the dangerous scheme to uproot Lebanon and turn it into a space for facilitating the realization of the schemes of Tehran’s rulers, which has required and requires the marginalization of the authorities starting from the very top, the fragmentation of institutions and hollowing them out to the point where laws are applied with discretion and the judiciary, whose independence is not respected, is targeted… In this event, if voters, as expected, punish those who had humiliated the country’s citizens and besieged them with destitution and the specter of death by epidemic or starvation, Hezbollah’s ability to maintain its dominance would face a hurdle that it has not known since its rise began and it first put its hands on the necks of the Lebanese, when it turned the 2006 July war into a platform from which to leap into the seats of power.
In this context, Hezbollah, through Nasrallah, has taken its plot to burn bridges with Saudi Arabia as far as it can go, targeting the Kingdom’s leadership with the most heinous of accusations and turning the facts on their head. In fact, he went as far as bringing the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese working in the Gulf into this, putting them at the heart of his campaign and calling them “hostages” held “to threaten Lebanon...” On the one hand, this reveals its domestic predicaments. The party seeks to heighten sectarian tension in order to evade responsibility for the snowballing collapse - this is the same party that has held the reins since its invasion of Beirut in May 2008. On the other hand, it speaks to obvious fears about developments on foreign soil springing from the shifts seen recently in the region, from Marib to Baghdad, and their implications, which took Hezbollah by surprise. Given all of that, it is possible, albeit with some difficulty, to open the doors to a real settlement that would launch the process of reconfiguring the composition of the authorities.
Once again, the elections could be an exceptional juncture in the battle against the approach of domination being imposed on Lebanon, officials controlling the judiciary, the constitution being tampered with, and the country being governed by the whims and the fatwas of fortune-tellers. Most importantly, there must be a relentless organizational effort that pushes for the establishment of a political opposition front that gives rise to the broadest alliance for change. The unitary state would thereby be victorious, forming a human dam composed of Lebanese citizens that creates a bulwark against parallel statelet, thus protecting the process of reshaping the composition of the authorities. The situation is fragile, difficult and complex. Neither Lebanon nor the region has ever known anything like it, and we should be very wary of allowing the peaceful civil battle to peter out or accepting the naive suggestions of those who once bet on Aoun and his movement’s “sovereignty.” They couldn’t handle the truth, so they leaped to making doomed propositions like federalism, pushing a simplified narrative in favor of it.
Once again, the elections are an opportunity that should not be missed, as they are the juncture the Lebanese have on their minds. What comes after October 17 will be different from what preceded it, in terms of the feasibility of retrieving the national balance that is hoped for, one that upholds freedoms and protects diversity to push for change and the transition from state run like a farmhouse to a normal one. Such a balance would reduce the risk of foreign meddling and have the upper hand in deciding on the new president after the presidency and the country are liberated from any subordination that undermines the interests of the Lebanese.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on January 06-07/2022
Statue of slain commander Soleimani torched by assailants in Iran
AFP/January 06/2022
A statue erected to honour slain Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani has been torched by unknown assailants hours after it was unveiled, Iranian media reported Thursday. Soleimani, who headed the Quds Force, the foreign operations arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, was killed on January 3, 2020, in Iraq in a US drone strike at Baghdad airport along with his Iraqi lieutenant and others. On Wednesday morning, a statue to honour him was unveiled in the southwestern Iranian city of Shahrekord. But in the evening it was set on fire, ISNA news agency said, calling it a “shameful act by unknown individuals”. “This treacherous crime was carried out in the darkness, just like the other crime committed at night at Baghdad airport,” when Soleimani was killed, senior Muslim cleric Mohammad Ali Nekounam said in a statement carried by ISNA. Iranian authorities have unveiled several sculptures dedicated to Soleimani since his assassination two years ago, and portraits of the late commander dot the landscape across Iran. State broadcaster IRIB condemned the latest attack as an “insulting” act, that comes as Iran marks the second anniversary of Soleimani’s killing, with several events in recent days. On Thursday, thousands of Iranians also paid tribute to 250 “unknown martyrs” killed in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war. Ceremonies were held across the country.

Iran seeking to prosecute 127 for death of top general
Elad Benari /Israel National News/January 06/2022
Iran says it has sent letters to 9 countries asking for measures against 127 culprits in elimination of Qassem Soleimani.
Iran announced on Wednesday that it seeks to prosecute 127 suspects for involvement and cooperation in the January 2020 elimination of senior commander Qassem Soleimani, the Fars news agency reported. Iranian Judiciary Spokesman Zabihollah Khodayian said the country has sent 11 letters of request to 9 countries asking for measures against the 127 culprits. He also said Iran and Iraq have signed a memorandum of understanding in this regard, adding that the two neighbors have formed working groups which will soon hold their third joint meeting. No details were provided on the identity of the suspects which Iran seeks to prosecute. Iran in 2020 issued an arrest warrant against then-US President Donald Trump and asked for Interpol's aid in detaining him in the killing of Soleimani. Interpol swiftly rejected the request, saying its guidelines for notices forbids it from "any intervention or activities of a political" nature. Iraq has similarly issued a warrant for Trump’s arrest as part of a Baghdad court's investigation into the killing of top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who died in the same US drone strike that killed Soleimani. Fars noted on Wednesday that, in addition to Trump, Iran’s chief civilian prosecutor has indicted the head of US Central Command General Kenneth McKenzie Jr., former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, over Soleimani’s elimination. The file remains open to the further addition of individuals that Tehran determines to have played a role in the killing, the Iranian news agency said. Speaking on the second anniversary of Soleimani’s death earlier this week, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi threatened to exact revenge against Trump. Raisi said on Monday that Iran would seek retribution unless the former US President, along with former Pompeo, agreed to a trial in a “fair court” in which they and other American officials would be sentenced for ordering the killing of the Iranian general. In a speech that was broadcast on Iranian television, the Iranian leader called Trump the “main criminal and killer” for his role in taking out Soleimani, and said Trump must face “qisas,” the Muslim term for retribution or an "eye for an eye.”

Washington Calls on Tehran to Exercise 'Nuclear Restraint'
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
US State Department spokesman Ned Price said the eighth round of talks in Vienna, which are aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, had made only “modest progress.”He called on Tehran to “exercise restraint” because its accelerated nuclear steps will diminish the benefits of the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In a daily press briefing on Tuesday evening, Price said: “There was some modest progress in the talks last week. We hope to build on that this week.”He also noted the return of the US special envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, to Vienna following a short break during the New Year holidays. He continued: “What is clear is that if we do not soon reach an understanding on a mutual return to compliance, Iran’s accelerating nuclear steps will increasingly diminish the nonproliferation benefits of the JCPOA.” Price linked the issue of sanctions relief to Iran’s nuclear steps, stating: “Even if there has been some progress, the fundamental situation really remains… Iran needs to exercise restraint in its nuclear program and pursue negotiations in Vienna seriously.”He added that the US will “be watching very closely,” to determine “whether the Iranians are as sincere and as steadfast as we have been in seeking a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA”. During a joint press conference with her US counterpart Antony Blinken in Washington, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that Germany and the United States were going in the same direction to return to mutual compliance with the nuclear deal. “We are pulling in the same direction when it comes to Iran and the discussions and negotiations are entering a crucial phase,” Baerbock said. “Iran has squandered a lot of trust and there is not much time,” she added.

Iran's Qaani Vows Revenge for Soleimani's Killing
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Commander of Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, has threatened the US of staging “fundamental” revenge in the cleric-led country’s own “style” to avenge the death of his predecessor, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike ordered by former President Donald Trump. Qaani’s remarks were made at an event organized by the Quds Force, the foreign arm of the Revolutionary Guard. Held on Tuesday, the event marked the anniversary of the deaths of Quds Force members in Syria and Iraq under the slogan “Soleimani’s Comrades.”The ceremony overlaps with Iran commemorating the second anniversary of Soleimani’s killing near Baghdad airport in January 2020. “There will be fundamental revenge. We are not criminals, but we have our own style,” said Qaani in his address to the attendees. “The enemy thinks the deed is done,” he added, revealing that Mike Pompeo, the former United States secretary of state, was the “most abhorred individual by Soleimani.” “They thought that their contempt would end... Do you think that you would strike and it’s over?... The nation and the free people of the world will take revenge on you in a way that you will never forget,” threatened Qaani. He referred to the decline of the US forces in Iraq from 150,000 to 2,500, and said: “Your departure from the region was one of the goals, but more than the American exit ... You were expelled.”Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi has said Trump must face justice for his role in Soleimani's killing, or else Iran will have revenge. Raisi called for the formation of a “fair court” in which Trump, Pompeo and other American officials are sentenced and punished.

Pompeo Defends Decision to Kill Soleimani
Washington - Hiba al-Qudsi/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the “unprecedented threats” by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in which he threatened to retaliate against the 2020 killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander, Qassem Soleimani. In an interview with Fox News on Monday evening, Pompeo said Iran, which he described as the largest state sponsor of terrorism, was threatening to kill him and former President Donald Trump. “There is a real security risk,” he warned. Pompeo threw more criticism at the administration of President Joe Biden, noting that it bears the responsibility to protect every American from the Iranian threats. He also defended the decision to kill Soleimani in an air strike near Baghdad airport in January 2020, stressing that if he went back in time, he would change nothing in Trump’s orders to launch the raid. “We were defending the United States and keeping the American people safe, and Soleimani actively participated in the conspiracy against America,” he told Fox News. “We took legitimate military action to make sure no Americans were killed and it was a good and right decision,” he underlined. Pompeo complained about the weak position of the United States in the ongoing Vienna negotiations over the Iranian nuclear file.He noted that the world “sees President Joe Biden as weak,” which benefits Iran, adding that the deal sought by Tehran would provide it with “large amounts of money and allow it to get nuclear and conventional weapons by 2025. This is the “worst deal in history,” he added. Iran would “take revenge for their killing of Soleimani” if Trump and Pompeo were not brought to justice, Raisi threatened on Monday.

Loud Explosion Exposes Iran Guards Maneuvers West of Tehran
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Iranian authorities on Wednesday denied reports about a missile explosion near a nuclear facility west of the capital, Tehran, saying the loud noise heard was caused by a controlled missile explosion launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) during military exercises.
Tehran Deputy Governor Mohsen Nayebi described "rumors" what was reported on social media networks about a missile explosion in the town of Shahr-e Qods (formerly known as Ghal‘eh Hasan Khan). A loud noise heard in the outskirts of the town of Karaj, to the west of Tehran, on Wednesday was caused by a rocket fired by the Revolutionary Guards during a training exercise, the official news agency IRNA reported. Karaj hosts several sensitive locations, such as the TESA centrifuge-parts workshop that was hit by apparent sabotage last June. Centrifuges can be used to enrich uranium. "The loud noise heard this afternoon in the suburbs of Karaj was caused by the firing of a rocket during a training exercise from one of the Guards' bases, which has caused some speculations and rumors online," a spokesperson for the IRGC told IRNA. "Such exercises are not uncommon, and we call upon our dear compatriots not to pay attention to the rumors made by the opponents and enemies of the Iranian nation." Tehran is currently negotiating with major powers to revive a 2015 nuclear deal in Vienna and conducted a war game in December to send a warning to Israel, its arch-foe in the region. Israel has long warned it will use military action if diplomacy fails to curb Iran's fast-advancing nuclear program by reviving the nuclear agreement. Iran says its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. Last September, the IRGC announced two of its members died from injuries they suffered in an unexplained fire the day before. The Guard said the fire erupted Sunday in a warehouse at what it described as a “research self-sufficiency center” west of the capital, Tehran. At least three Guard members were injured, two of whom later died. The statement did not provide any further details.

Israeli Strikes in Southern Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Israeli tanks fired Wednesday on suspects along the Syrian border in the Golan Heights after they were detected near its forces, the military said. "A short time ago during army activity in the Golan Heights, soldiers identified suspects close to a military position and fired in their direction from tanks," the army said in a brief statement. "The suspects then moved away into Syrian territory," it added. In the 1967 Six-Day War, Israel seized part of the strategic Golan Heights -- bordered by Lebanon, which patrols there -- from Syria, AFP reported. The official Syrian news agency SANA said Israeli forces had also "attacked with tank shells the forests of Al-Hurriyah village" in the Syrian province of Quneitra, which borders the Israeli-occupied section of Golan Heights. SANA added that Israeli helicopters and reconnaissance planes also flew over the area. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitor, said a fire broke out in the forest near the village and that there had been Israeli helicopters present, but did not mention casualties. Israel considers this part area of southern Syria to be a "second front" of Hezbollah, which is close to Israel's arch-foe Iran. Since 2011 and the outbreak of Syria's civil war, Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes on Syrian territory, targeting government positions as well as allied Iran-backed forces and Hezbollah fighters. Israel says it is trying to prevent Iran, one of Damascus' key allies in the decade-old civil conflict, from gaining a permanent military foothold on its doorstep. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Force said it had shot down a small Hezbollah observation drone flown over the heavily guarded Israel-Lebanon border.

Washington Committed to Constitutional Declaration to Resolve Sudan Crisis
Washington - Muath Alamri/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
The United States still supports the civilian demonstrations in Sudan and the people's right to determine their fate. The "2019 constitutional declaration is the best way forward because it espouses the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people," said State Department spokesman Ned Price during a press briefing. Reports have spoken of disputes within Joe Biden's administration over the position on Sudan that may lead US Horn of Africa envoy Jeffrey Feltman to resign. Price stressed that Washington rejects the use of violence against Sudanese protesters. "Sudanese stakeholders will need to set aside differences and agree on a consensual way forward to advance the country’s democratic transition under civilian leadership, consistent with the 2019 constitutional declaration and the aspirations of the Sudanese people," he urged.
"The Troika and the EU will continue to support the democratic transition in Sudan. But Sudanese stakeholders will need to work on the basis of the 2019 constitutional declaration on how to overcome the nation’s current political crisis, select new civilian leadership, and identify clear timelines and processes for the remaining transitional tasks. And that includes establishing the legislative and judicial branches of government, creating accountability mechanisms, and laying the groundwork for elections," Price continued. "The actions of the military in recent weeks and the past couple months have been deeply concerning and we have condemned them, but we continue to look to that document as a blueprint for the path forward," he remarked. "The next prime minister needs to enjoy credibility with the Sudanese people, and that can only occur if the individual is identified through a consultative civilian-led process consistent with that very 2019 constitutional declaration," he stressed. Observers said that internal differences may bubble to the surface within the American administration over the developments in Sudan. The differences center on how to describe the political crisis that erupted in October when the military seized power. One camp in the administration refuses to describe the events as a "military coup", but would rather call it military seizure.
The State Department is also divided between a camp that backs imposing sanctions on the military leaderships behind the coup and attacks against protesters. In November, Foreign Policy spoke of fundamental differences within the State Department over the "military coup". One camp, led by Feltman, firmly supports slapping sanctions on military officials and holding them accountable for obstructing the democratic process in the country. Moreover, he even accused them of lying to him shortly after meeting them when signs of a dispute between the military and civilian authorities began to emerge in October. The second camp, led by Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, urges patience and against rushing to slap sanctions on a country that has just started to embark on its democratic path after ousting the Bashir regime in 2019. The camp advocates having all sides overcoming their problems and working together to end the crisis. Phee had visited Khartoum in November 16 where she met with head of the military commander Abdul Fattah al-Burhan and Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who resigned from his post this week.
Confirming the differences within the State Department, Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that Feltman intends to step down from his post this month after more than nine months in the job. David Satterfield, the outgoing US ambassador to Turkey, will take up the role, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. Feltman, a veteran US diplomat, assumed the post in April and quickly found himself in the middle of two major crises - Ethiopia's deepening civil war between forces loyal to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the army of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, as well as a military coup in Sudan in October. The news of his departure, which was not previously reported, came before he heads to Ethiopia on Thursday to meet with senior government officials about the peace talks as part of Washington's latest push to bring an end to the conflict. Asharq Al-Awsat tried to contact the State Department for a comment, but received no reply. It then contacted diplomatic sources in Washington that confirmed the differences within the State Department. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the sources did not confirm reports of Feltman's resignation.

Russia Sends Paratroopers to Kazakhstan to Quell Deadly Unrest
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Russia has sent paratroopers into Kazakhstan as part of an international peacekeeping force to quell deadly unrest in the central Asian country, a military alliance of former Soviet states said on Thursday. Earlier, Kazakh police said forces had "eliminated" tens of rioters in the largest city of Almaty as the unrest sparked by rising fuel prices boiled over into the biggest protests since independence in 1991. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev had appealed for the intervention of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, blaming foreign-trained "terrorist" gangs for the violent protests. Several armored personnel carriers and scores of troops entered the main square of Almaty on Thursday morning where hundreds of people were protesting against the government for the third day, Reuters correspondents reported from the scene. Gunshots were heard as troops approached the crowd, according to Reuters witnesses, but the situation in the square had calmed down since then. Unverified video on social media showed troops patrolling Almaty's foggy streets overnight, firing weapons, as well as widespread looting in the city.
State television on Thursday showed video of a pile of weapons on the street, with people walking up and taking them. TASS news agency quoted the Kazakh health ministry as saying more than 1,000 people had been injured during the protests, and more than 400 of them were in hospital.
The unrest began as protests against the rising price of liquefied petroleum gas, a fuel used by the poor to power their cars, but has since turned into anti-government riots feeding off deep-seated resentment over three decades of rule by former president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his hand-picked successor.
Nazarbayev, 81, stepped down in 2019 but remains a political force and his family is believed to control much of the economy, the largest in Central Asia. He has not been seen or heard from since the protests began.
Nazarbayev's successor Tokayev said gangs were seizing buildings, infrastructure and weapons. "It is an undermining of the integrity of the state and most importantly it is an attack on our citizens who are asking me... to help them urgently," he said. He also ordered government protection for foreign embassies and businesses owned by foreign companies. The nation's reputation for stability had helped attract hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment in oil and metals industries. State TV also said the National Bank of Kazakhstan had decided to suspend work of banks in the country for the safety of their workers. The Internet in the country is mostly down. Eight police and national guard troops were killed in the unrest on Tuesday and Wednesday, Russia's state-owned Sputnik agency said on Wednesday, quoting the Kazakh interior ministry. Russian news agencies, quoting Kazakh media, later said two soldiers had also been killed in what they described as an anti-terrorist operation at Almaty airport.

Japan, Australia Sign Defense Treaty with Eyes on China
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Japan and Australia on Thursday signed a "landmark" treaty to strengthen defense ties, saying the accord would contribute to regional stability, as China expands its military and economic clout. While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison did not mention Beijing directly in a statement released ahead of the signing, the agreement is seen as another step by the regional allies to signal their concern over China's military expansion, AFP said. Ahead of Thursday's online summit with his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida, Morrison called the agreement "a statement of two nations' commitment to work together in meeting the shared strategic security challenges we face and to contribute to a secure and stable Indo-Pacific". "This landmark treaty will... for the first time provide a clear framework for enhanced inter-operability and cooperation between our two forces," Morrison said. The partnership reflects "our shared values, our commitment to democracy and human rights, and our common interests in a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific", he added. Japan and Australia, along with the United States and India, are part of the "Quad" grouping that has worked to build an alliance in the face of China's swelling presence across Asia, including its threats to vital international sea lanes. Ali Wyne, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said the treaty could enhance Tokyo and Canberra's ability to carry out joint military exercises in Japan with the United States. It "goes a considerable way towards concretizing the forms that security cooperation between Japan and Australia could take", he told AFP. "China will likely cast it as further evidence that advanced industrial democracies seek to stymie its resurgence, although Beijing's own conduct in recent years has contributed considerably to its growing diplomatic estrangement from those countries," Wyne added. When asked about the treaty at a regular briefing on Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said "the Pacific Ocean is vast enough for the common development of countries in the region".
"State-to-state exchanges and cooperation should be conducive to enhancing mutual understanding and trust among countries in the region and safeguarding regional peace and stability, rather than targeting or undermining the interests of any third party," he said. "We hope that the Pacific will be an ocean of peace, not a place to make waves." Japan's defense spending has been increasing steadily for a decade and the country's draft 2022-23 budget includes a record figure for the military. Tokyo's defense ministry says the regional security situation is becoming "increasingly severe at an unprecedented speed", noting challenges posed by China and North Korea. Wyne said Thursday's treaty also underscores the momentum of the Quad, which held its first in-person summit in Washington in September. Also in September, the United States, Britain and Australia announced they had formed a new alliance -- AUKUS -- under which Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines using US technology.

North Korea Says It Tested Hypersonic Missile
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
North Korea has successfully tested a hypersonic missile, state media reported Thursday, in the first major weapons test by the nuclear-armed nation this year. This was the second reported test of what Pyongyang claimed were hypersonic gliding missiles, as it pursues the sophisticated technology despite international sanctions and condemnation. Hypersonic missiles move far faster and are more agile than standard ones, making them much harder for missile defence systems -- on which the United States is spending billions -- to intercept. The missile fired on Wednesday carried a "hypersonic gliding warhead" that "precisely hit a target 700 km away", the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported, without identifying the launcher. The warhead also demonstrated a "new" capability, moving 120 km laterally after it detached from the launcher to strike the target, it added. "The successive successes in the test launches in the hypersonic missile sector have strategic significance," KCNA said. Hypersonic missiles were listed among the "top priority" tasks for strategic weapons in North Korea's current five-year plan, and it announced its first test -- of the Hwasong-8 -- in September last year. The Wednesday launch also tested the "fuel ampoule system under winter weather conditions", according to KCNA. An ampoule system involves a propellant canister attached to the missile when it is manufactured, and could eliminate the need for fueling it at the launch site. This offers an advantage over ordinary liquid-fueled missiles, which have to be loaded with propellant on-site just before launch -- a time-consuming process that gives an enemy ample opportunity to locate and destroy them.
Growing arsenal
Depending on their design, hypersonic missiles can carry conventional and nuclear warheads, and have the potential to alter the strategic balance. They are generally defined as travelling more than five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5. The KCNA report did not mention the speed at which the missile travelled on Wednesday, and assessments of its performance from other nations have yet to be released. "It looks like the North Koreans identified hypersonic gliders as a military requirement (probably because they perceive this to be effective at dealing with BMD)," tweeted Ankit Panda of the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to ballistic missile defense.
"We'd need independent, detailed data to assess how effective these missiles actually are, but taking the two North Korean statements about the Hwasong-8 and this missile at face value, this test appears to have gone better" than the one in September, Panda added. Some experts caution that hypersonic weapons may have only limited advantages, while others warn that if North Korea fully develops the technology, it would pose a serious threat. In the decade since Kim Jong Un took power, his country has made rapid progress in its military technology, at the cost of international sanctions. In 2021, in addition to the hypersonic Hwasong-8, Pyongyang said it successfully tested a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile, a long-range cruise missile, and a train-launched weapon.
Condemnation
The United States, Japan and Canada condemned Wednesday's test."This launch is in violation of multiple UN Security Council Resolutions and poses a threat to the DPRK's neighbors and the international community," a US State Department spokesperson said, using the official name of North Korea, prior to the KCNA report about a hypersonic test. Dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang remains stalled, following the collapse of talks between Kim and then US president Donald Trump in 2019. Under Trump's successor Joe Biden, the United States has repeatedly declared its willingness to meet North Korean representatives, while saying it will seek denuclearization. But Pyongyang has so far dismissed the offer, accusing Washington of pursuing "hostile" policies. North Korea says it needs its arsenal to defend against a US invasion.

Communications Disrupted in Sudan Ahead of Anti-military Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Internet and mobile services appeared to be disrupted in Sudan on Thursday ahead of the latest round of planned protests against a military takeover that upended a transition towards elections. Some bridges between the capital Khartoum and its sister cities of Bahri and Omdurman were also closed ahead of the demonstrations. Protesters said they would try to reach Khartoum's presidential palace as they try to keep up pressure on the military, which halted a power-sharing arrangement negotiated after the 2019 overthrow of Omar al-Bashir when it staged a coup last October. "We will occupy the streets once more, heading for the tyrant's palace, rejecting military rule, and adhering to peacefulness, our strongest weapon," said a statement from resistance committees organizing protests from Bahri. Crackdowns on protests since the coup have left at least 57 people dead and many more injured, according to medics aligned with the protest movement. Calls and mobile internet services were disrupted from late morning, Reuters journalists and internet blockage observatory NetBlocks said. The protests come four days after Abdalla Hamdok resigned as prime minister, throwing Sudan's future deeper into uncertainty. Hamdok became prime minister in 2019 and oversaw major economic reforms before being deposed in the coup and returning in a failed bid to salvage the power-sharing arrangement.

Sisi Stresses Egypt’s Support for Chad During its Transition
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi stressed Egypt’s keenness to provide full support to Chad during its transitional phase and to strengthen relations between their countries on various levels. This keenness reflects the strong historic relations between the two countries, he said during a meeting in Cairo with head of Chad's Transitional Military Council Mohamed Idriss Deby. Egypt's presidential spokesman Bassam Radi said Deby praised the close relations between their countries, expressing his deep appreciation for Egypt’s support during the current delicate stage that Chad is going through.
He emphasized the broad prospects for developing relations and advancing cooperation. The officials also discussed several regional issues of mutual concern, including developments in Libya where they stressed the need for the withdrawal of all foreign mercenaries. Sisi expressed his interest to continue cooperating with Chad in maximizing security, intelligence, and military cooperation to combat terrorism and extremist ideologies.

Algerian Envoy to Return to Paris After Months of Tensions
Algiers - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
The Algerian ambassador to France will return to Paris on Jan. 6, Algerian state TV reported on Wednesday, citing a presidency statement.Mohamed Antar Daoud was recalled for consultations in October following comments attributed to French President Emmanuel Macron in which he doubted the existence of the Algerian nation before the French colonization. President Abdelmadjid Tebboune met with Daoud on Wednesday before he resumes his post. Algeria also decided to reopen land borders with Tunisia following two years of closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. Algerian Interior Minister Kamel Beldjoud said the borders will be opened during the day only, and travelers are required to undergo a PCR test and respect health measures.

Israeli Forces Kill Palestinian Gunman in West Bank Clash
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 6 January, 2022
Israeli forces shot and killed a Palestinian gunman on Thursday during a clash in the occupied West Bank, the military said. The incident occurred in the Palestinian city of Nablus, which the military said soldiers had entered to detain a Palestinian, whom it did not identify. "Some Palestinian gunmen began firing at the soldiers, prompting them to respond and kill one of them," a military spokesman wrote on Twitter. "The wanted man was arrested. There were no casualties among our forces." The West Bank has seen sporadic violence since US-sponsored talks on founding a Palestinian state alongside Israel stalled in 2014.

Biden condemns Trump as a threat to democracy in speech marking one year since January 6 attack
CNN/January 06/2022
President Joe Biden on Thursday marked the first anniversary of the January 6 insurrection by forcefully calling out former President Donald Trump for attempting to undo American democracy, saying such an insurrection must never happen again. In a speech that lasted just under 30 minutes, Biden made a passionate case for defending the nation's founding ideals from the threats posed by Trump and the violent mob that stormed the Capitol one year ago. The speech saw an animated Biden make one of the most passionate addresses of his still-young presidency as he harkened back to critical moments from the nation's past and cast last year's insurrection as a living symbol of the inflection point in American history he so often speaks about. "For the first time in our history, a President had not just lost an election. He tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power as a violent mob reached the Capitol," Biden said in a speech from the US Capitol. "But they failed. They failed. And on this day of remembrance, we must make sure that such an attack never, never happens again."

Gantz, King Abdullah discuss regional stability
Rina Bassist/Al-Monitor/January 06/2022
Clearly it is no coincidence that Israel’s Defense Minister Benny Gantz met in Amman with Jordanian King Abdullah one week only after hosting in his Rosh Ha’ayin home Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. The Jan. 5 meeting between Defense Minister Benny Gantz and Jordanian King Abdullah was not their first meeting. They have known each other for many years and had met in Jordan as recently as last July. Other Israeli leaders have also met with the king in recent months, including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, President Isaac Herzog and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Still, this was the first time in seven years that the palace in Amman published a picture of the king meeting with an Israeli official. The last time was in 2014, when the king met with then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on the backdrop of Israeli-Palestinian talks that were mediated by then-US Secretary of State John Kerry. The Jan. 5 meeting was part of continues efforts by Bennett, Gantz and Lapid to revamp ties between Israel and Jordan, after sour relations during the Netanyahu era. A statement released by the office of Gantz shortly after the meeting said the two men discussed “the strategic importance of strong and enduring relations between Israel and Jordan, which contribute to the security and prosperity of both nations.” Gantz and Abdullah, it was noted, talked about a number of security and diplomatic issues. The statement continued, “Gantz thanked His Majesty for his leadership and for the Kingdom’s critical role in maintaining regional peace and stability. … Gantz also praised the improved ties between the two countries since Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's government came to power, and expressed his commitment to continuing to strengthen Israel and Jordan's security, economic and civil ties."
Other reports said Abdullah told Gantz he appreciated the Dec. 28 meeting between the minister and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and considers it an important step in stabilizing the region. As a reminder, the two leaders — Gantz and Abbas — met at the home of Gantz in Rosh Ha’ayin, in a rare encounter on Israeli soil. And while the Gantz-Abbas meeting was reportedly not the trigger for the Jan. 5 meeting in Amman, it certainly facilitated it and encouraged the Jordanians to go public about it, including the picture. Israeli reports said Jan. 5 that the Palestinian issue and maintaining calm in the West Bank were just one of several diplomatic and security issues discussed at the meeting, which lasted for an hour and a half. Another issue, for instance, was Syria, and the Israeli-Jordanian common interest in avoiding escalation in the region. Reportedly, the Defense Ministry's policy and political-military bureau director, Zohar Palti, told the Jordanians that the Biden administration had promised Jerusalem it will not withdraw its troops from Syria and from Iraq in the near future. Security cooperation is an important element in bilateral relations and rapprochement between Israel and Jordan, but not the only one. Shortly after taking office, Bennett promised the king that Israel would double the quantity of water it supplies to the Hashemite Kingdom. Then, last November, with the mediation of the United Arab Emirates and US Climate Change Envoy Kerry, the two countries signed an agreement that should help them both to face climate change challenges. The cooperation agreement will see the construction of a solar plant in the Jordanian desert, generating clean power for Israel, in exchange for a desalination plant in Israel that will provide Jordan with water.

N. Korea Claims Second Successful Test of Hypersonic Missile
Associated Press/January 06/2022
North Korea claimed Thursday to have conducted the second successful test flight of a hypersonic missile, days after leader Kim Jong Un vowed to bolster his military forces despite pandemic-related difficulties. Wednesday's launch, the North's first known weapons test in about two months, indicates the country will press ahead with plans to modernize its nuclear and missile arsenals rather than return to disarmament talks anytime soon. The official Korean Central News Agency said the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party expressed "great satisfaction" at the results of the missile test, which was observed by leading weapons officials. Hypersonic weapons, which fly at speeds in excess of Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, could pose crucial challenges to missile defense systems because of their speed and maneuverability. It's unclear whether and how soon North Korea could manufacture such a high-tech missile, but it was among a wish-list of sophisticated military assets that Kim disclosed early last year, along with a multi-warhead missile, spy satellites, solid-fueled long-range missiles and underwater-launched nuclear missiles.
Wednesday's test was the second of its kind since North Korea first launched a hypersonic missile last September.
"The successive successes in the test launches in the hypersonic missile sector have strategic significance in that they hasten a task for modernizing strategic armed force of the state," a KCNA dispatch said. The word "strategic" implies the missile is being developed to deliver nuclear weapons.
KCNA said the missile made a 120-kilometer-long (75 mile) lateral movement before hitting a target 700 kilometers (435 miles) away. It said the test reconfirmed the flight control and stability of the missile and verified its fuel capsule under the winter weather conditions.
While North Korea appears to have made progress in the development of a hypersonic missile, it still needs more test flights to determine whether it meets its tactical objectives or how advanced a hypersonic weapon it could develop, said Lee Choon Geun, an expert and honorary research fellow at South Korea's Science and Technology Policy Institute. A photo of the launch shows that the upper parts of the missiles launched in September and this week have different shapes. Lee said this suggests that North Korea is testing two versions of warheads for a missile still under development or it is actually developing two different types of hypersonic missiles. He said the missile's reported lateral movement would provide the weapon with a greater maneuverability to evade enemy missile defense systems. Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korea will likely go ahead with its arms build-up plans without being affected by external factors like the Beijing Olympics in February, the South Korean presidential election in March and a possible change in the Biden administration's North Korea policy.
"Given the U.S. has decided on a diplomatic boycott of the Beijing Olympics, North Korea doesn't have to worry about what China would think when it conducts" weapons tests, Kim said.
China is North Korea's last major ally and aid benefactor. Some experts earlier predicted that North Korea would not launch any provocations until the Beijing Olympics ended. Tae Yongho, a former North Korean diplomat who now serves as a lawmaker in South Korea, wrote on Facebook that Pyongyang is keeping its borders shut due to fears about the pandemic. But he said Pyongyang is still working to perfect its missile technology to boost its position in any future negotiations. The North's latest launch was first detected by its neighbors. The U.S. military called it a ballistic missile launch that "highlights the destabilizing impact of (North Korea's) illicit weapons program," while South Korea and Japan expressed concerns or regrets over the launch. China, for its part, called for dialogue and said that "all parties concerned should keep in mind the big picture (and) be cautious with their words and actions."
U.S.-led diplomacy on North Korea's nuclear program remains stalled since 2019 due to disputes over international sanctions on the North. The Biden administration has repeatedly called for resuming the nuclear diplomacy "anywhere and at any time" without preconditions, but North Korea has argued the U.S. must first withdraw its hostility against it before any talks can restart. During last week's plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party, Kim Jong Un repeated his vow to expand his country's military capabilities without publicly presenting any new positions on Washington and Seoul. The North's advancing nuclear arsenal is the core of Kim's rule, and he's called it "a powerful treasured sword" that thwarts potential U.S. aggressions. During his 10-year rule, he's conducted an unusually large number of weapons tests to acquire an ability to launch nuclear strikes on the American mainland. But his country's economy has faltered severely in the past two years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the sanctions and his government's own mismanagement.

Canada/Statement on protests in Kazakhstan
January 6, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada is closely monitoring the situation in Kazakhstan. We emphasize the importance of upholding democratic values, respecting human rights, and refraining from violence and destruction.
“We extend our condolences to those grieving the lives that have already been lost.
“Canada calls for restraint and de-escalation. We urge that the situation in Kazakhstan be resolved quickly and through peaceful dialogue.”

Canada/Statement from International Coordination and Response Group for the victims of Flight PS752 marking two years since the tragic downing of Flight PS752
The International Coordination and Response Group for the victims of Flight PS752 today issued the following joint statement:
“Almost two years ago, in the early morning of January 8, 2020, the Iranian military fired two surface-to-air missiles and destroyed Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 near Tehran.
“We, Ministers representing Canada, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom, honour the memory of the 176 innocent passengers and crew who lost their lives that day. We will never forget this senseless loss of life and stand in solidarity with the victims’ families. They deserve transparency, justice and accountability for this reprehensible tragedy.
“As a group of states that have been specially affected by Iran’s breaches of international law, we have united our efforts to ensure that the interests of the victims and their families are served, and that there is respect for the rule of law. With this common purpose, we have consistently called upon Iran to engage in good-faith negotiations to fulfill its international legal obligations to make full reparations for the downing of Flight PS752.
“Most recently, the Coordination Group asked Iran to commit to engaging in negotiations with the Group by January 5, 2022. Unfortunately, on December 27, 2021, we received an unequivocal response from Iran that it does not see a need to negotiate with the Group. After initially agreeing to engage with the Group during our first round of negotiations held on July 30, 2020, Iran is now categorically rejecting any further negotiations with the Group related to our collective demand for reparations. As reparations are owed to the affected states, this matter must be discussed collectively, so that all victims are treated fairly and equally.
“It is clear that Iran continues to avoid its international legal responsibilities, including by refusing to negotiate further with the Coordination Group and make full reparations for its actions. We will not stand for this affront to the memories of the 176 innocent victims.
“Despite our best efforts over the past two years and multiple attempts to resolve this matter through negotiations, the Coordination Group has determined that further attempts to negotiate with Iran on reparations for the destruction of Flight PS752 at this time are futile. The Coordination Group will now focus on subsequent actions to take to resolve this matter in accordance with international law.
“We remain united in our commitment to hold Iran accountable for the actions and omissions of its civil and military officials that led to the illegal downing of Flight PS752 by ensuring that Iran makes full reparations for its breaches of international law.”

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on January 06-07/2022
America Is Not Leaving the Middle East
Robert Ford/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
In 2021 I saw many people claim that the United States will abandon the Middle East. This is ridiculous. The United States is staying in the Middle East, as analyst Dalia Kaye from the University of California in Los Angeles wrote in Foreign Affairs magazine a month ago.
The Biden administration finished a big review of American military deployments around the world in November. As expected, the study concluded that China is the biggest strategic challenge. But as analyst Rebecca Wasser wrote in the strategy website War on the Rocks in December, the review did not call for any big changes in American military deployments in the Middle East. First, the Americans are keeping their bases in the Arab Gulf region in countries like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. They are expanding the Muwaffak Salti airbase in Jordan. At the same time, the American navy continues to operate in the Gulf and near the Arabian Peninsula. The exact number changes from day to day with rotation of military units but last June there were around 40,000 US forces in the Mashreq and Gulf regions. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reminded the Manama security conference in November that the United States “has very real combat power in the region and we can and will maintain it.”
The last three American presidents have looked at the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and are cautious about starting a new land war in western Asia. Caution about launching a new war is, of course, not the same thing as defending or withdrawing.
Second, neither Trump nor Biden withdrew all the American forces out of Syria or Iraq. In fact, the number of soldiers hasn’t changed for about two years and will not change much during the next few years. The Americans have promised not to undertake unilateral combat missions in Iraq and that is new. Their mission now is to improve the capability of Iraqi counter-terrorism forces. In Syria, the Americans remain to build the strength of the Syrian Democratic Forces against ISIS. Five years after the recapture of Mosul from ISIS and three years after the recapture of Baghouz in eastern Syria, ISIS remains a persistent problem. It is reasonable to ask if American soldiers can fix the ISIS problem definitively, but in any case, the American forces are not leaving Syria and Iraq in the near future.
Similarly, Washington’s decision to remove some American Patriot anti-missile systems from Saudi Arabia last summer is not evidence of an American preference to withdraw all its forces. First, the Patriots are not designed to block drone attacks. Second, the Saudi Arabian military is more capable at defending against drone and missile attack, as demonstrated against attacks last September and last month. Third, despite criticisms from political opponents in Washington, Austin and President Biden last month pressured the Congress to approve the sale of missiles able to intercept drones to the Saudi Air Force. Austin in his November speech in Bahrain had emphasized that the Americans wanted to share responsibility for the region’s defense with regional states. This was an example similar to American help to Iraqi counter-terrorism units and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
What about the future? The Biden administration last month brought Ilan Goldenberg as a senior policymaker to the Defense Department. Goldenberg before had been an analyst at a research center in Washington connected to the Democratic Party. Earlier in 2020 he helped write a set of recommendations that urged the Biden administration to (1) focus on the counter-terrorism mission in the region, not a new land war like 1991 or 2003; (2) reduce the size of the big American bases in the Gulf and move some American forces to other sites in the region farther from Iranian missiles; (3) negotiating with partners to ensure American access to ports and airports to send more American forces to the region if there was an urgent situation.
It is worth noting that Austin in November said that if needed the Americans can move more combat forces to the region “because that is what global powers do.”
Of course, events in Asia, in Europe and with Iran will affect the future American military position in the Middle East. Will China and Russia have more influence in the region? Of course. Who thought Russia would stay in chaos after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990? And China has the world’s largest population and a huge economy. Regardless of its many political problems, America is no longer the single superpower. But any foreign leader who expects the American political class will abandon the Middle East doesn’t understand American domestic politics or Biden’s policy that seeks to share responsibility for stability in the region with America’s partners.

Abu Righal’s Anxiety
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
I always recommend reading the speech of the leader of the terrorist Hezbollah - which the Saudi ambassador to Lebanon Walid Bukhari described as the “Abu Righal of our Age” - instead of watching it on television.
His speech, which came in commemoration of the second anniversary of the killing of terrorists Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, focused on several clear points.
First, the speech comprised around five thousand and seven hundred words. It began with Iraq, specifically reminding Iraqis of their enemies and friends, which highlighted Abu Righal’s outrage at the Saudi-Iraqi rapprochement.
In perplexity about the Iraqi popular rejection of Iran, Iraq and the Iraqis were mentioned 99 times in his speech. Most of his talk about Iraq was focused on the fact that Iran was the friend and Saudi Arabia was the enemy, in addition to linking the Kingdom to the United States. Iran was mentioned in his speech 15 times, while Saudi Arabia 20 times, and the enemy 23 times!
It is obvious that the leader of the terrorist party is worried about the success of the Saudi project in the region – a feeling which he fails to hide, as he asserts that the intra-Gulf reconciliation came by an American decision. But a good judge knows that this came as a result of the efforts of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz.
Terrorist Hassan said a dangerous sentence that reveals an old sectarian scheme, where he says that Saudi Arabia’s problem in Lebanon lied “with those who prevented the country from turning into a Saudi emirate and sheikhdom after 2005” that is, after the assassination of the martyr Rafik Hariri!
Therefore, the speech of the terrorist party leader reflected anxiety about the success of the Saudi project, Vision 2030, and the political leadership project, as well as trepidation at the recent and painful Saudi moves against the Houthis and Hezbollah in Yemen.
Abu Righal, for instance, mentioned Yemen in his speech 11 times, commenting ambiguously on the important Saudi intelligence infiltration of the Houthis. While he exposed Hezbollah’s involvement in Yemen in audio and video, he did not elaborate on the situation there, but only spoke with slogans and emotion.
He did not mention the Israeli targeting of Iran and the terrorist Hezbollah in Syria, although he repeated the name of Israel 23 times. Rather, he bragged about the deal of the century and Gulf-US relations, while disregarding the Vienna negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file and the parallel Iranian-American-Western talks. The leader of the terrorist party talked about the destructive US role on the anniversary of the assassination of terrorists Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis by an American raid, while overlooking that Tehran is currently negotiating with their killers and seeking to lift sanctions and to obtain money from Washington! Thus, whoever reads the speech, instead of watching it, finds that it is inconsistent, and reflects emotion and confusion, and a real concern about the success of the Saudi project, especially after the Saudi-French statement on Lebanon and the successive Gulf declarations.
The speech also reveals that terrorist Hassan is shaken by the Saudi-Iraqi rapprochement, and the painful Saudi strikes against the Houthis and Hezbollah in Yemen. As for Abu Righal’s talk about extremism, it is to distract attention from the reality that Hezbollah and ISIS are two sides of the same coin.

The Missile Against the Loaf
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/January, 06/2022
With 2021 coming to an end and 2022 beginning, Kim Jong-Un gave a speech that some understood to indicate that the priority in his country might shift from missiles to bread. Concluding his tenth year at the helm, the North Korean leader said that the mission of his state in the coming year is to unleash economic growth and improve the people’s livelihoods because North Korea faces a “great life-and-death struggle.”
This is what Kim Jong-Un actually said, and this quote was not attributed to him by South Korean media, which is often accused of “fabricating news” about its northern neighbor. Some have perhaps read too much into Kim’s speech. Nonetheless, atypically, the North Korean leader did not waive the threat of his missiles, nor did he send “fiery messages” to the United States and South Korea. It seems as if conditions in North Korea, under his leadership, no longer afford him this luxury. Matters were made worse by two years of isolation because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the closure of the borders with China, which supplies North Korea with almost everything. This situation is reminiscent of the 1990s in Korea in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse and the suspension of its assistance to Kim’s country. At the time, a famine ensued that killed hundreds of thousands –and some estimate three million, of the country’s population of 25 million.
The “Arduous March,” as it became known, forced Kim Jong-il to be frank with his people for the first time, admitting to “food shortages” and that the agricultural plan adopted by his government had let the people down and gone contrary to the expectations of North Korean leadership. However, in order to undercut the severity of his confession, news circulated from Pyongyang suggesting that the entire world had been on the verge of collapse. Of course, it was impossible for North Koreans to know what had been going on in the outside world. After the different experiences of Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and Lebanon over the past two years, we can now speak of a comprehensive formula that puts missiles, or warmongering in general, against bread: either this or that. As for attributing the choice of missiles over bread to a desire to safeguard dignity, this argument is only echoed by two sorts of people: The malicious lining their pockets through the manufacture of missiles (and a monopoly over bread); and those naive enough to numb their aching stomachs with bloated speeches about missiles and dignity.
Ultimately, those deprived of both freedom and bread have no claim to having dignity. It is absurd, after all is accounted for, to suggest that South Korea, which has saved its northern sibling from famine, lacks dignity while North Korea has dignity in abundance.
In this context, dignity is but a euphemism for life under a tyrannical junta that oppresses and impoverishes people in the name of fighting an external enemy– one whose enmity it is intended will remain indefinite and intractable. Even these juntas’ claims to the defense of principles and values seem flimsy: neither does Iran fight for god nor does the Syrian regime fight for Baathist principles. As for North Korea, since the last few days of Kim Jong-il’s reign in 2009, all references to Marxism-Leninism and Communism have been removed from its Constitution.
Of course, there are those who viewed missiles as paving the path towards bread, resistance to colonizers and their departure being necessary conditions to development and a better future. And, as our poetry suggests, only a “bloodied hand” can open the “door to freedom.” However, if this claim was sensible during the colonial era, what justifies it today after decades of independence?
The experience of Vietnam gives an eloquent answer to this question: when the war against the Americans and southern Vietnamese was raging, Vietnam was described as the epic of the century. Then suddenly, when Vietnam set missiles aside and became concerned with bread, those who had heaped praise on the country stopped mentioning it. It has had solid economic development and maintains good relations with the Americans and Europeans. It thus becomes better to forget Vietnam and pretend it does not exist. China would have met the same fate if it had not been continuing to lock horns with the United States.
For this reason, it would be tenable to argue that what is being sought, away from all these ideological frivolities, is the perpetuation of a state of war: “keep your weapon awake,” as our old song goes. In light of the failure of this consciousness that revolves around missiles to make any achievements outside of war-making, the missiles’ centrality increases and grows. So does rejection of circumventing war-making, whether through the economy, politics, or culture. All of that is normalization that threatens to prioritize bread over missiles and establish peace where conflicts and disputes had long prevailed.
However, despite all the misery in our contemporary world, missile-centric consciousness has become extremely outdated and continues to decline. True, it has ignited wars, and it does have the capacity to do so. Nonetheless, this lone talent cannot avert its slow decay through exposure to new ideas about authoritarianism, patriarchy, racial discrimination, the status of women in society, and of course, aversion to war and these principles’ correlation with economic prosperity and material comfort.
These ideas “leak” through televisions, cinemas, social media, and alternative media outlets, and their veracity is attested to by experiences of travel or tourism, familiarity with international affairs, and above all, the affairs of the countries in question. Those ideas don’t merely isolate the missile–centric people; they also rob them, every day, of their children, who now begin to detest their fathers’ nonsense.
As such, it has now become possible to wager that cracks are showing in the North Korean fortress and those that emulate and resemble it. If not tomorrow, then after tomorrow, as missiles cannot continue to prevail over bread forever.

Russia's Putin to NATO: Commit Suicide or Face All-Out War
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/January 06/2022
The Russian demands, which effectively require NATO to commit suicide, are so obviously outrageous and unmeetable that Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor.
Germany appears to be the West's weak link the face of Russian pressure. On January 3, the German newspaper Bild reported that Scholz is seeking "a new beginning" in relations with Moscow. This has alarmed smaller European countries which fear that Germany will reach an accommodation with Putin behind their backs.
"The Russian leader... believes he has a window of opportunity to act. He is worried that the risk of Kiev joining NATO will increase if a stronger U.S. leader... comes to power.... Regretfully, the Biden administration's 'experts,' like Obama's before them who fecklessly sought a 'reset' with Russia, are likely to fall into Putin's trap." — Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert.
"A second Russian attack on Ukraine, should it happen, ought to serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the West about Russia's intentions to establish an exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and assert Moscow's claims to exercising influence in Central Europe, within NATO's perimeter.... Europe's security would deteriorate dramatically. The zone of competition would shift from Eastern Europe to Central Europe and the Baltic states." — Andrew Michta, geopolitical analyst
"The West should immediately impose tough sanctions on Russia, provide serious defense assistance to Ukraine, demonstrate unambivalent support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and project moral and strategic resolve. Unfortunately, current trends and past behavior provide little cause for optimism that the 'free world' will rise to the challenge." — Anne Pierce, foreign policy expert
"Westerners do not seem to understand what is at stake. They think that only the fate of Ukraine is being decided, which is of less concern to them than that of Armenia.... They resemble those who in 1939 believed that Hitler's demands would be limited to Danzig. However, one only has to look at the texts proposed by Moscow to understand that the stakes are quite different." — Françoise Thom, French historian of Russia.
"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor, nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were destroying the city walls." — Françoise Thom.
Russia has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies fail to comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new security arrangement in Europe. Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor.
Russia has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies fail to comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new security arrangement in Europe.
The demands, issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, require the United States to remove its nuclear umbrella from Europe and allow Russia to reestablish its Soviet-era sphere of influence over Eastern Europe.
The Russian demands, which effectively require NATO to commit suicide, are so obviously outrageous and unmeetable that Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor.
Nearly all Western analysts agree: Putin is taking advantage of the weakness of U.S. President Joe Biden, divisions between the United States and Europe, disagreements within the European Union, and the fecklessness of the leaders of Europe's largest countries, particularly France and Germany.
On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry published two draft treaties: one between Russia and the United States, and the other between Russia and NATO.
Russia's draft "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees" listed more than a dozen demands, including:
NATO membership must be denied to all states of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have been members of the alliance since 2004.
NATO is prohibited from expanding further eastward, including to countries such as Sweden and Finland.
The United States is prohibited from flying bombers or deploying warships, including within the framework of NATO, in areas outside of its national airspace and national territorial waters, respectively.
The United States is prohibited from deploying its armed forces or armaments, including within the framework of NATO, in any area where such deployment could be perceived by Russia as a threat to its national security.
The United States must remove all its nuclear weapons from Europe.
The United States is prohibited from deploying ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside of its territory.
Russia's draft "Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization" put forward additional demands:
NATO member states are prohibited from deploying military forces to any country that became a member of the alliance after May 27, 1997, when NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations. This includes 14 countries that have become NATO members during the past 25 years: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
NATO is prohibited from deploying land-based intermediate- and short-range missiles to anywhere where such missiles can reach Russia.
NATO is prohibited from any further enlargement, including the accession of Ukraine as well as any other state.
NATO is prohibited from military cooperation with Ukraine as well as other states in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared that both texts are part of a whole and are not to be understood as being "a menu, where you can choose one or the other."
While Russia expects NATO and the United States to comply with its demands, Moscow, in return, has offered only a vague commitment to "not create conditions or situations that threaten the national security of the other parties." The draft treaty imposes no requirements for Moscow to redeploy Russian forces.
On December 20, Konstantin Gavrilov, a Russian diplomat in Vienna, said that relations between Moscow and NATO had reached a "moment of truth." He added:
"The conversation needs to be serious and everyone in NATO understands perfectly well despite their strength and power that concrete political action needs to be taken, otherwise the alternative is a military-technical and military response from Russia."
On December 23, Putin, during a four-hour press conference, repeated his stance that "any further NATO movement to the east is unacceptable." A few days later, the Kremlin described NATO expansion as "a matter of life and death" for Russia.
On December 26, Russia warned Finland and Sweden against joining NATO. "It is quite obvious that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate response from Russia," said Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
Russia hopes to obtain new security guarantees during a series of upcoming meetings with American and European officials. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman are scheduled to lead bilateral security talks in Geneva on January 10.
Russia is set to hold talks with NATO in Brussels on January 12, before a broader meeting in Vienna on January 13 involving the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet states.
Meanwhile, Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern border amid fears of an imminent invasion.
Evaluating Russian Demands
Françoise Thom, a renowned French historian of Russia, wrote that Putin is trying to "bind NATO through the United States, the United States through NATO." She added: "There is nothing to negotiate, you have to accept everything as a whole."
Thom, in a lengthy and incisive analysis of the Russian demands, described them as "an orchestrated blackmail":
"The Russian blackmail is explicit and is directed at both the Americans and the Europeans. If the West does not accept the Russian ultimatum, they will have to face 'a military and technical alternative,' according to Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko: 'The Europeans must also think about whether they want to avoid making their continent the scene of a military confrontation. They have a choice. Either they take seriously what is put on the table, or they face a military-technical alternative.'
"After the publication of the draft treaty, the possibility of a pre-emptive strike against NATO targets (similar to those that Israel inflicted on Iran), was confirmed by former Deputy Minister of Defense Andrei Kartapolov (Duma Defense Committee): 'Our partners must understand that the longer they drag out the examination of our proposals and the adoption of real measures to create these guarantees, the greater the likelihood that they will suffer a pre-emptive strike.'
"To make things clear Russia fired a 'salvo' of Zircon hypersonic missiles on December 24. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, commented on this event: 'Well, I hope that the notes [of December 17] will be more convincing.' Editorialist Vladimir Mozhegov added: 'What are our arguments? First and foremost, of course, our most reliable allies — the army and the navy. To be more precise, the hypersonic Zircon missile (the 'carrier killer,' as it is affectionately called in the West), which makes it absurd for the United States to have a fleet of aircraft carriers. The impact of the Zircon cracks a destroyer like a nut. Several Zircons will inevitably sink an aircraft carrier. The Zircon simply does its job: it methodically shoots huge, clumsy aircraft carriers like a gun at cans.'
"An article in the digital newspaper Svpressa eloquently titled 'Putin's ultimatum: Russia ... will bury all of Europe and two-thirds of the United States in 30 minutes' dots the i's: 'The Kremlin will have to prove its position with deeds. It is probably only possible to force the 'partners' to sit at the negotiating table by coercion. Economically, the Russian Federation cannot compete with the West. There remains war.' Military expert Konstantin Sivkov believes that 'to bring the United States and NATO to the negotiating table, some kind of super weapon is needed to... demonstrate our determination to strike if NATO expands. After that, I can assure you that they [the West] will be afraid.... It is naive to rely on diplomatic procedures. [...] Russia's move is a signal that already radical measures are going to be taken. You refused, so you will have yourselves to blame...'"
Official Responses
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the United States would consult with its allies.
Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lukasz Jasina added: "Russia is not a member of NATO and doesn't decide on matters related to NATO."
Ukraine's foreign ministry said Kyiv had an "exclusive sovereign right" to run its own foreign policy, and only it and NATO could determine the relationship between them, including the question of Ukrainian membership.
Finland, an officially neutral country which shares a border with Russia, underscored its right to seek NATO membership at any time. "Let it be stated once again," said Finland's president, Sauli Niinistö. "Finland's room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide."
Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde added:
"We must have a rules-based world order, where we have international law and each country has the right to make its own security policy choices. Rejecting any future expansion of NATO will reduce the opportunities to make independent political choices."
Germany appears to be the West's weak link the face of Russian pressure. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to reset relations with Moscow and is planning a face-to-face meeting with Putin sometime this January.
On January 3, the German newspaper Bild reported that Scholz is seeking "a new beginning" in relations with Moscow. This has alarmed smaller European countries which fear that Germany will reach an accommodation with Putin behind their backs. In an interview with Bild, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said:
"Everyone saw [German Foreign Minister] Annalena Baerbock and hoped that she could shift the German foreign policy focus to human rights and the observance of basic values. Europe basically hoped that the new government would mean an end to mercantilism, but then Mr. Scholz took over the helm. What we see now is unfortunately more of what we already know and not a good start to his term in office and not a good sign for European unity."
Select Commentary
Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in an opinion article published by Politico, warned that Putin is seeking Russian control over the security of Central and Eastern Europe:
"Under the new Russian proposals, NATO would have to seek consent from Moscow to deploy troops in Central and Eastern Europe, refrain from 'any military activity' across Eastern Europe, the southern Caucuses and Central Asia, and halt any NATO drills near Russia. The agreement also demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, and a draft treaty with the United States would ban it from sending warships and aircrafts to 'areas where they can strike targets on the territory of the other party,' like the Baltics and the Black Sea.
"This is not a serious proposal from a man who wants peace.
"Putin is skilled at creating crises only to later extinguish them, like a firefighter trying to douse his own arson attack, and by threatening to invade Ukraine, he has calculated that the U.S. and other Western powers might negotiate directly with the Kremlin — potentially over their Eastern European and Baltic allies — offering concessions and allowing him to maintain influence over former Soviet countries in exchange for peace.
"Putin plays a bad hand well — but his tactics will only work if we fold. And it's time for NATO to call Putin's bluff.
"Under no circumstances should the U.S. or NATO give commitments on future enlargement, real or de facto.... NATO cannot have an open-door policy on enlargement in which it continues to allow Putin to act as the doorman.
"NATO cannot negotiate down the barrel of a gun. And if we back down now, that signal will be heard loud and clear by both the democracies that rely on us, and the autocrats who lament and fear our freedom."
Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert, argued that the evidence is overwhelming that Russia is about to invade Ukraine, and that Putin was taking advantage of the weakness of the United States under President Joe Biden:
"The Russian leader... believes he has a window of opportunity to act. He is worried that the risk of Kiev joining NATO will increase if a stronger U.S. leader...comes to power. He also knows that the Pentagon is only beginning its transition from counter-terrorism operations onto a new footing focused on major states such as China and Russia.
"Russian troops are primed to fight in the cold, as they always have been, and Putin likely believes the West won't wade into the snow to help Ukraine. Emboldened by his ability to blindside the West, such as by previously invading Georgia and taking Crimea, and by extorting concessions from Joe Biden, Putin is positioning to outmaneuver Washington.
"Regretfully, the Biden administration's 'experts,' like Obama's before them who fecklessly sought a 'reset' with Russia, are likely to fall into Putin's trap."
Steven Pifer, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, wrote that the substance of the Russian demands, and the way they were publicized, suggest that Putin is not serious about negotiating with the West:
"The unacceptable provisions in the two draft agreements, their quick publication by the Russian government, and the peremptory terms used by Russian officials to describe Moscow's demands raise concern that the Kremlin may want rejection. With large forces near Ukraine, Moscow could then cite that as another pretext for military action against its neighbor."
Veteran geopolitical analyst Andrew Michta, writing for the inestimable blog 19fourtyfive, argued that Putin is trying to divide NATO, humiliate the West and eject the United States from Europe:
"Judging by the scope of the demands presented by Russia in the two so-called 'draft treaties' with NATO and the United States, respectively, Moscow must have no illusions that these would be accepted, for they would remake Euro-Atlantic security, creating conditions that would undermine NATO and America's ability to work with its allies. Putin may have already decided to move militarily, and calls for the West to negotiate could create a 'maskirovka' [Russian military deception] and in doing so provide a casus belli for Moscow, which would try to claim that Washington had refused to consider its terms.
"If the demands to negotiate have a larger aim it is to divide the alliance. Most importantly, the idea that Russia would need a written treaty guarantee to forestall Ukraine or Georgia's accession to NATO is absurd. Putin knows that so long as he occupies Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, the countries have no chance of making it into NATO, for a vote to enlarge the alliance would mean in effect a vote to go to war with Russia. Moscow's demand that the effective status quo be confirmed by treaty is thus nothing short of an attempt to humiliate the West.
"It is critical to consider what might happen should Russia invade Ukraine, and what might happen if we do not start thinking long-term about the impact of this crisis. A second Russian attack on Ukraine, should it happen, ought to serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the West about Russia's intentions to establish an exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and assert Moscow's claims to exercising influence in Central Europe, within NATO's perimeter....
"Should the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine be more of the same, Europe's security would deteriorate dramatically. The zone of competition would shift from Eastern Europe to Central Europe and the Baltic states, where the next round of Putin's demands could be a de facto 'Finlandization' of the Baltic States and pressure on the United States and NATO to remove military assets from the intermarium [Central and Eastern European countries] between the Baltic and the Black Seas, especially from Poland and Romania. In this scenario Putin would target Germany as his 'partner of preference,' with the expectation that by applying its energy weapon Moscow could eventually coax Berlin into a 'neo-Bismarckian' [German dominance of the European Union] accommodation that would in effect divide Europe into two spheres of influence, rendering the United States increasingly irrelevant to the overall strategic balance in Europe."
American foreign policy expert Anne Pierce warned that the United States and Europe are at a "tipping point":
"If they do not move decisively to stop Russia from taking over Ukraine, they will send a dangerous message to China vis-a-vis Taiwan, position Russia to coerce more former Soviet satellite states, and further ruin their international reputation, which is already in tatters after the betrayal of Afghanistan and failed diplomatic overtures to Iran. The window is closing to deter Russia from instigating major war or from conquering Ukraine by intensifying its current campaign of paramilitary assaults, disinformation, energy blackmail, and threats backed by escalation.
"It is nearly past time to alter Vladimir Putin's shrewd calculus and deny Russia crucial geopolitical territory and a defining anti-democratic victory. The West should immediately impose tough sanctions on Russia, provide serious defense assistance to Ukraine, demonstrate unambivalent support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and project moral and strategic resolve. Unfortunately, current trends and past behavior provide little cause for optimism that the 'free world' will rise to the challenge....
"In the face of Russia's alarming advances and brazen disregard for international norms, Western leaders have hesitated to impose serious costs. They've issued 'expressions of concern,' agreed to treaties that give Russia an advantage, failed to enforce those treaties, haltingly imposed weak sanctions, and generally exhibited inertia that contrasts with Putin's drive....
"Recent Western responses to Russian aggression resemble the Munich peace process. In hopes of satisfying Adolf Hitler from wanting more, the West buried its head in the sand about Hitler's vast ambitions and escalating atrocities and forced Czechoslovakia into concessions that facilitated German occupation. History, and the failure of generous compromise to stop Putin so far, tells us where all this is likely to lead."
Françoise Thom, the French historian, urged the West to wake up:
"Reading the Western press, one is under the impression that nothing is happening. Westerners do not seem to understand what is at stake. They think that only the fate of Ukraine is being decided, which is of less concern to them than that of Armenia.... They resemble those who in 1939 believed that Hitler's demands would be limited to Danzig. However, one only has to look at the texts proposed by Moscow to understand that the stakes are quite different....
"In a word, Russia is demanding that NATO commit suicide, and that the United States be reduced to the role of a regional power.... As a result, Russia will have the upper hand in Europe. The countries of Western Europe are already taken for granted, with Moscow counting on the pool of collaborators that it has cultivated for years within the European ruling elites: it has just sent them a strong signal by appointing François Fillon [former prime minister of France] as director of the petrochemical giant Sibur. Deprived of American support, the 'Russophobic' countries that crystallize the resistance to Moscow's hegemony will only have to bow to the inevitable....
"Westerners must first perceive the situation as it is, however unpleasant it may be for our democratic states more accustomed to futile undertakings than to ensuring their preservation. To do this, we must extricate ourselves from the Russian lie....
"When Moscow talks about 'security' one must understand 'Russian domination' and 'impunity,' because that is what it is all about. In the Kremlin's view, everything it does not control can jeopardize the regime.... What Moscow fears in Ukraine is not a few NATO instructors, but freedom. It wants a disarmed Ukraine so that it can intimidate the Kiev rebels and set up a regime hated by its people, thus totally dependent on the Kremlin....
"If Russia succeeds in driving the United States out of Europe, it will soon feel threatened by the freedoms of Western European countries, and under the pretext of ensuring its 'security,' it will display the same determination in our country [France] as in its own to enslave the media, to eradicate democratic institutions and independent parties....
"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor, nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were destroying the city walls."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
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Attacks on US in Iraq meant to send ‘harsh’ message — without spilling blood
Yasin Akgul/Al-Monitor/January 06/2022
An Arab diplomat who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity warned that for every day the talks aimed at reviving the Iran nuclear deal drag on, Tehran’s nuclear program advances.
“Iranians are buying valuable time so that they get to the point of no return,” the diplomat said.
Iran and world powers kicked off the latest round of talks on Jan. 3 in Vienna, yet many sticking points remain, including and especially for those in the region who have to live with Iran.
There are serious concerns in the Middle East that Iran is trying to impose a status quo via the nuclear talks whereby its interests can be preserved.
The Arab diplomat explained that Saudi Arabia and other Arab states accepted the idea of normalizing ties with Iran, “but it’s the Iranian regime that’s exploiting their goodwill to try to maintain its position in Vienna while destabilizing the region” at the same time.
The first week of 2022 saw several attacks on US interests in Iraq, albeit without a drop of blood.
A commander in Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) who spoke to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity explained that these attacks are “sending a harsh message to the Americans while making sure no drop of blood is spilled. It’s about setting the scene on the second anniversary of the assassination of [Quds Force commander] Gen. Qasem Suleimani and [PMU leader] Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, and also a show of power the Iraqis want Iran to use at the negotiating table in Vienna to solidify its posture.”
Whether it’s in Iraq or Vienna, it’s clear that the main two parties — the United States and Iran — even though they’re not meeting directly, are staring each other down to gain leverage.
Or at least that’s how the region sees it.
While Iran is insisting that all sanctions be lifted, along with a verification system, the United States and its EU partners are threatening to take Iran’s file back to the UN Security Council and apply a snapback mechanism that will see all UN sanctions reactivated as well as bring to action EU sanctions.
An Iranian source confirmed that this is something that came to their attention, though they don’t regard it as a threat.
According to Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at International Crisis Group, the United States can still enforce the measure more rigorously and can deepen Iran's economic troubles and isolate it diplomatically by working with the Europeans to snap back the UN's and EU's sanctions. He explained that this is possible despite the fact the “Trump administration almost exhausted America's sanctions leverage.”
As of May 8, 2018, the date former President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the United States has imposed and reimposed hundreds of sanctions against entities and individuals in Iran.
“Trump's unilateral imposition of secondary sanctions showed us that a sanctions campaign does not have to be multilateral to achieve maximum pressure,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations and CEO of Bourse and Bazar.
Batmanghelidj explained that the economic shock Iran experienced in 2018 was of a similar magnitude to the shock following the imposition of multilateral sanctions in 2012.
“The key question for Iran is whether China would support the snapback of UN sanctions if the nuclear talks were to fail.” Batmanghelidj elaborated on this: “If China does support those measures, winding down purchases of Iranian oil, it would have a significant impact on the Iranian economy. But China will be reluctant to endorse the US-led sanctions architecture and will want to keep importing discounted Iranian oil.”
Market intelligence firm Kpler reported earlier that China imported almost 18 million barrels from Iran in November for an average of about 600,000 per day, though official Chinese data indicate that Beijing hasn’t taken oil from Tehran since December 2020.
The snapback was what Trump’s administration was after back in August 2020 when Washington notified the UN Security Council that it was launching a 30-day process to snap back UN sanctions against Iran. But the UNSC blocked the bid on the basis that most of the 15 members of the council contested the move because the United States had withdrawn from the 2015 nuclear deal.
While the impact of such a move on the Iranian economy is questionable, Iran’s response to such a move might pave the way for another crisis.
“The Iranians would have an opportunity to expel IAEA inspectors, bring cooperation to a minimum and remove the cameras,” says Mohammad Marandi, a professor at Tehran University and an adviser to the Iranian negotiating team, warning that if that happens then it will take many years for Europeans and Americans to discover what's going on in Iran.
Marandi explains that there are many options on the table for Iran: “Iran can expand its nuclear program at multiple levels and in different parts of the country. Iran can also increase pressure on the United States beyond the borders at a time when the United States needs to cut costs desperately.”
But — from Vaez’s point of view — expanding the program is bound to push the United States and/or Israel to resort to military action in the coming months.
Israel has been warning that it’ll not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear bomb, and on several occasions, there have been reports that the United States and Israel were weighing options and are having their plan B prepared in case the talks reach a dead end.
But Vaez thinks there’s still a third option.
“If the parties fail to find a pathway to restore the nuclear deal, the only way to prevent a perilous military confrontation is through an interim agreement that could put more time on the diplomatic clock,” he said.
Yet a partial deal isn’t on the table, argues Marandi. “There's no discussion of a partial deal; Iran wants the full implementation of the JCPOA but not like in the past. In other words, in the past the Americans refrained from implementing the deal, but this time the Iranians are saying that that's simply not an option.”
On several occasions, Iranian officials clarified that they are not in a hurry to take any deal; rather, they prefer no deal to a deal that’s not going to meet their conditions. However, Batmanghelidj thinks that while Iran is seeking verification and guarantees around sanctions relief because of the lessons learned from the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2016 and the withdrawal of the United States from the deal in 2018, it also learned that a lot of the expected benefits of the deal didn't materialize while sanctions were in place and that all of the benefits of the deal could be eliminated if the United States unilaterally withdraws.
So, for Iran to strengthen its economic defenses it’ll need a technical approach to sanctions relief that will help ensure more trade and investment can be conducted more quickly and that the benefits of this economic engagement are more durable.
Though Batmanghelidj believes this won't be easy, he still thinks “the experience of sanctions relief in 2016 shows us that many economic benefits will materialize automatically after sanctions are lifted and do not need additional policy interventions by the JCPOA parties.” He concluded, “Iran can expect to sell more oil, conduct more trade and regain access to most of its financial assets, all of which will buoy the economy and buy time for the technical work of ensuring that the more challenging transactions, like the foreign investments in the oil and automotive sector that failed between 2016-2018, can actually be completed this time around.”

Dual citizenship changes Germany’s approach to migration
Faisal Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/January 06/2022
When Olaf Scholz made his first major speech as German chancellor in mid-December, it was closely watched for signs of how he would continue Angela Merkel’s successes and how he would fix her mistakes.
Scholz focused mainly on his priorities for the pandemic and climate change, as might be expected given the continued discovery of new variants and his centre-left coalition. But almost unremarked was a small but far-reaching change, designed to solve one of the most taxing of German problems; what to do about the large number of refugees inside the country. The issue is still a source of controversy among Germans over whether it counts as a success or a failure of the Merkel years. In outlining his new approach, Scholz said Germany would for the first time allow dual citizenship.
That may sound surprising. Germany’s citizenship policy is unusual among major Western countries. With some exceptions, the country does not allow dual citizenship, the major exception being for those from other European Union countries.
The issue of dual citizenship mostly affects the immigrant population, in particular the Turkish minority, now at least three million strong. Until 2014, Turks who immigrated to the country had to renounce their Turkish citizenship if they wanted to be naturalised. Even those born in Germany of Turkish descent had to face the choice, once they became adults, of discarding one of the two passports.
Many refused. In the early days of Turkish immigration, many thought they would return. Children did not want a different citizenship to their parents. And even today, with family and business links between the two countries, choosing one over the other is problematic and, say Turks, discriminatory, given that, for example, those of French descent do not face the same choice.
That one policy had enormous consequences. Last year marked 60 years since the “gastarbeiter,” or guest worker, programme that brought thousands of Turks to the country first began. Yet even today, around two thirds of those of Turkish descent do not have German citizenship, with concomitant impacts on their education and employment options.
Allowing multiple citizenships will primarily benefit Turks and Syrians, the two largest non-EU groups that applied for German nationality in 2020, the last year for which statistics are available. The new government’s plan will make the integration of Turks and the new wave of Syrian migrants much easier.
There is, however, another aspect to the rule change that sidesteps one of the hardest debates of the migration crisis: when can Syrian migrants go home?
Merkel made the momentous decision in 2015 to allow in hundreds of thousands of refugees, saying at the time, “We’ll manage this,” a phrase that has since become something of an epitaph. Ever since, German society has argued about the consequences of the large numbers of new arrivals, whether they would be integrated or whether Syria would ever be safe enough for them to return home. Last spring, Denmark became the first European country to begin revoking residency permits of Syrian refugees, claiming that parts of Syria were safe for refugees to return to. The policy shift was widely condemned and other European countries are watching closely to see what happens.
Any change will be watched particularly in Germany, which has the highest number of Syrian refugees on the European continent. And any change in Germany would be certain to trigger changes across Europe.
So far, Germany has avoided major decisions. A ban on deportations to Syria of those deemed a threat to security or convicted of serious crimes was allowed to lapse at the end of 2020. The ban had been in place since 2012 and the lapsing of the ban, even though the change would apply to only a few dozen people, was seen as the beginning of a process that could return refugees.
German courts, however, have so far declined to use the power. Thus far, it does not appear that Germany deported any migrants to Syria across 2021.
Scholz’s plan will buy the government more time. By allowing dual citizenship, the coalition can sidestep the issue of when to ask Syrians to return and give the government some breathing room.
As with those having Turkish links, Syrians seeking refuge in Germany may not want to give up their Syrian passports. That would be breaking a bond with the country and may mean renouncing their property and businesses inside Syria, a drastic move that many would be reluctant to make. It may also mean severing family ties.
If Syrians can take dual citizenship and are not forced to renounce their Syrian citizenship, more will be able to stay and build lives in Germany, whilst also maintaining the possibility that, if the situation in Syria improves, perhaps some can return. Instead of the German government forcing Turkish migrants to make a stark decision about their identity, as it did previously, Scholz is keeping the country’s options open, whilst hoping to disarm rising anti-migrant sentiment. He hopes that by opening the door for more integration of migrants today, Germany will not be closing the door on them ever returning to Syria tomorrow.
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