English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 23/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.february23.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Take care! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not consist in the abundance of possessions
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/13-21/: ”Someone in the crowd said to him, ‘Teacher, tell my brother to divide the family inheritance with me.’But he said to him, ‘Friend, who set me to be a judge or arbitrator over you?’ And he said to them, ‘Take care! Be on your guard against all kinds of greed; for one’s life does not consist in the abundance of possessions.’Then he told them a parable: ‘The land of a rich man produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, “What should I do, for I have no place to store my crops?” Then he said, “I will do this: I will pull down my barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain and my goods. And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years; relax, eat, drink, be merry.”But God said to him, “You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?”So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not rich towards God.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 22-23/2022
Sheikh Sobhi Al-Tufaili: Hezbollah's Drone Is a mere Media Fanfare
Aoun Denies Giving Up Lebanon's Rights in Sea Border Talks
Aoun meets Boustany, affirms to Jaafari Cultural Council “waiver claims over Lebanon’s maritime border demarcation negotiations untrue”
President signs decree granting temporary social assistance to all public sector workers
General Directorate of Lebanon’s Presidency: Information about negotiating demarcation of Lebanon's southern maritime borders national defense...
Lebanon president rejects claims about concessions in talks on maritime border dispute with Israel
Mikati meets Fayyad, special ministerial committee over electricity dossier
Berri receives Minister of Defense, National Anti-Corruption Authority, UNIFIL’s Del Col
Israeli Jets Overfly Southern Cities and Towns at Low, Medium Altitudes
UNIFIL Head Notes 'Unique Momentum' to Build on 'Existing Stability' in South
Bahaa Hariri joins political fray ahead of upcoming Lebanon elections
Late artist Sami Clark's burial ceremony kicks off at St. George's Church in Shweir
Derian, Ibrahim broach latest local developments
Geagea Says Elections Will be a 'Political War of Liberation'
”To protect and to build”/Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/February 22/2022
From Aoun's 2002 Archives/: There are about 11 organizations of terrorism in Damascus. Among them, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front and the General Command Front of the Palestinians [Liberation Army], all of them are listed in the United States as classified as terrorist organizations.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 22-23/2022
Biden cuts Western financing for Russian sovereign debt in first tranche of sanctions
Russia moves to secure its hold on Ukraine’s rebel regions
Putin Lays Out Three Conditions to End Ukraine Crisis
European Union Nations Unanimously Approve Sanctions on Russia
Iran Returns Donated Vaccines Because They Were Made in US
Biden Ignoring Budapest Memorandum Commitments to Ukraine
Russia Flexes Military for Ukraine Move; West to Respond
Qatar Opens ‘Communication Channel’ between US, Iran
Pakistani PM to Visit with Russia's Putin as War Fears Loom
Ukraine-Russia: Germany Suspends Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline
Britain Sanctions 5 Banks and Gennady Timchenko, Johnson Says
Us Navy Plans Launch of Mideast Drone Force Alongside Partners
Jordan's Royal Court Rejects 'Inaccurate' Claims About King Abdullah's Accounts
Arab Support for Egypt, Sudan Following Ethiopia’s Unilateral GERD Operation
Queen Elizabeth Still Has Mild COVID Symptoms, Cancels Online Meetings
Tunisia's Free Destourian Nominates Moussi for Presidential Elections
Policy of 'diversification' allows Egypt not to be hostage to US pressures, preserve initiative
Saudi Arabia wants fair Palestinian settlement before overture to Israel
Dbeibah seeks power at any cost

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 22-23/2022
Has Iran Bagged a Victory?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat
What Is the IRGC If Not a Terror Organization?/Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat
This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders/Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times
West is on verge of signing 'surrender pact' with Iran/Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom
A New, Weaker Iran Deal Would Pave a Path to the Nuclear Threshold...Even a new deal might give us a ‘breakout time’ of only a few months./Andrea Stricker/The Dispatch
Iran is squeezing Christians and other minorities out of the Middle East, researcher says/Jonah McKeownCNA-Denver Newsroom
Drug smuggling from Syria poses national security challenge for Jordan/Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News

on February 22-23/2022
Sheikh Sobhi Al-Tufaili: Hezbollah's Drone Is a mere Media Fanfare
Aseyassi/February 22/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106513/%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b4%d9%8a%d8%ae-%d8%b5%d8%a8%d8%ad%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b7%d9%81%d9%8a%d9%84%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%b3%d9%8a%d9%91%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%ad%d8%b2%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%ac%d8%b9%d8%ac/
The former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Sheikh Sobhi Al-Tufaili, considered that “in general, if the Lebanese elections take place next spring, their results may change in significant proportions in the Christian and Sunni sectors, due to the economic and living conditions and the reluctance of the Future Movement to participate, but these facts will be reflected in the interest of both parties. Shiites in the south and in Baalbek-Hermel. Al-Tufaili stressed that “Hezbollah’s Drone has no effect on the balance of military power with the enemy, as experts know in this regard. Yes, it is media fanfare aimed at influencing the outcry of oppression, hunger and injustice that is rising in the Shiite community in the face of the sinful, traitorous duo.

Aoun Denies Giving Up Lebanon's Rights in Sea Border Talks
Naharnet/February 22/2022
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday denied accusations that he has given up Lebanon’s rights in the maritime border talks with Israel. “Everything that is being said about giving up Lebanon’s sea border rights is baseless, because those talking do not know what was said in the negotiations,” Aoun said. The talks “will preserve Lebanon’s rights and natural resources and this is what’s important,” he added. The President also lamented that some parties are “attacking” him personally for “combatting corruption.”“Some are trying to depict things as being a personal or sectarian issue, although the truth is totally the opposite,” Aoun went on to say.

Aoun meets Boustany, affirms to Jaafari Cultural Council “waiver claims over Lebanon’s maritime border demarcation negotiations untrue”
NNA/February 22/2022
President of the Republic, Michel Aoun, on Tuesday received former Minister, Naji Boustany, and addressed with him general affairs and recent developments. The meeting also tackled Shouf needs, especially the stages of construction of Deir El Kamar governmental hospital, in light of the Kuwaiti donation to this purpose and the studies and maps which were prepared by the Council for Development and Reconstruction, which costs are linked to the given value of 2 million USD.
Jaafari Cultural Council:
President Aoun met a delegation from the “Jaafari Cultural Academy for Research, Islamic Studies and Interfaith Dialogue” headed by its President, Sheikh Mohamed Hussein Al-Hajj.
The delegation also included Messrs’ Hassan Kotb, Omar Al-Masry, Qassem Kassir, Elie Sirghani, Abdel Latif Sinno and Fawzi Bitar.
At the beginning, Sheikh Al-Hajj thanked President Aoun for receiving the delegation, and praised the efforts made by the current presidential term to spare the country any security setback despite the difficult conditions it is experiencing, considering that maintaining security stability can only be put in the category of major achievements that count, although there are some incidents that can occur in every country.
In addition, Sheikh Al-Hajj presented the work of the Council, which is considered one of the most important dialogue institutions in the country. In reference to the President’s call for the establishment of the Human Academy for Convergence and Dialogue, Al-Hajj affirmed that the Council looks forward to this academy, considering that Lebanon desperately needs it and for dialogue institutions that seek to support Islamic-Christian and Islamic-Islamic dialogue, especially since Lebanon is a country of coexistence.
“We have finally noticed that there must be a call for dialogue at the political level, so we called for a civil state and adopted the project of this state, which is the state of law, and which we hope will be adopted away from quotas, politics, and sectarianism. Let the competent people be in the right place and position. Because if we adopt this state, all problems can be solved regardless of the implementation of what was agreed upon, whether in Doha or Taif” Sheikh Al-Hajj stated.
Finally, the head of the delegation wished the President that there would be attention and acknowledgment of the institutions that work to promote dialogue, especially since President Aoun always calls for and adopts dialogue and desires its establishment at various levels, and he has always shown interest in the efforts made by the Council.
President Aoun:
For his part, the President welcomed the delegation and praised the work done by the Council, especially in terms of guiding society towards peace and love, “Which we desperately need in order for a man to know his fellow man, especially since we all believe in God and we must call for peace among us”.
“The establishment of the Dialogue Academy would bring people closer together and introduce them to each other, so that the world would be able to spread peace and love among people of different civilizations” President Aoun said.
“In our call for the establishment of this academy, we give Lebanon a model for a shared life, despite the political differences between the Lebanese, which shouldn’t reflect human and national differences since politics differ from values” the President continued.
“Here we have to exert efforts, each from his position, so that the political dispute remains within the limits of politics and doesn’t turn into a dispute between people, and the homeland remains a homeland” President Aoun added. Concerning the crisis which Lebanon is witnessing, especially in terms of economic and financial terms, which has led numerous Lebanese to a state of extreme poverty, the President pointed out that some have personally attacked him for fighting corruption, and some attempt to portray matters as a personal or sectarian issue even though matters are the opposite. “Banks have placed deposits in the Central Ban worth 86 Billion USD, of which the government was given 5 Billion, and the value of the remaining reserves is estimated at 13 Billion. The most important question is where the 68 Billion disappeared. This matter shouldn’t happen and whoever wants to rule cannot turn citizens into poor people instead of helping them, creating job opportunities and preserving national wealth. Today, we need the Lebanese to unite to fight corruption and not launch media campaigns” the President said.
Then, President Aoun referred to what is being said about the process of indirect negotiations with Israel, and asserted that everything that is said about waiving Lebanon’s rights in the maritime borders is not true because those who launch these rumours are not aware of what took place during the discussions, which will preserve Lebanon’s rights and its natural wealth, and this is what is important.
Finally, the President emphasized the importance of dialogue being accompanied by the dissemination of a culture of national solidarity to fight corruption and preserve the various human values and good virtues in order to be able to continue.
President Aoun asserted that the dialogue is the starting point for reaching fruitful results.
University College of Violence and Human Rights:
The President met a delegation from the University College of Nonviolence and Human Rights AUNOHR, which included its founder, Dr. Ugarit Younan, its president, Dr. Elham Kalab, and Vice President, Dr. Abdel-Hussein Shaaban. The delegation briefed President Aoun on the role of the university, which obtained its license in 2014 and began teaching in 2015, and will soon celebrate the graduation of the first batch of its students holding a master’s degree in non-violence in the world, and these students are from Lebanon and five other countries.
The delegation also explained that the college includes specializations at the master’s level, most notably in the philosophy and skills of nonviolent education, social training and active methods, conflict management and nonviolent mediation, nonviolent educational theatre, civic education, citizenship education, human rights education culture and skills, philosophy and methodologies of nonviolence, nonviolent communication, and media skills etc…Moreover, delegation members indicated that the college is based on thirty years of life experience and intellectual and field work, and is independent of any local or foreign party and is considered the first of its kind in Lebanon and the region. The college receives students from Lebanon and other Arab countries, and their files are accepted for registration from all academic fields according to a flexible scientific mechanism, since there are no similar previous majors in higher education.
For his side, the President praised the role played by the college in the field of disseminating the culture of non-violence and human rights, and pointed out the importance of this culture, especially in the circumstances experienced by the countries of the world, where violence prevails and expands.—Presidency Press Office

President signs decree granting temporary social assistance to all public sector workers
NNA/February 22/2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed Decree No. 8838 on February 22, 2022.
The Decree aims to grant temporary social assistance as a settlement to all workers in the public sector, regardless of their job titles, and retirees who benefit from a retirement pension starting from 1/1/ 2022 until the approval of the 2022 general budget.
Text:
Article 1: As a method of settlement, employees in the public sector who, as of its date, are obligated to attend in the regular official working hours are given: public administrations, public institutions (including government hospitals and the Lebanese University), municipalities and the Municipal Union, and anyone who receives a salary or wage or allocations from public funds, employees, service execution and projects emanating from the Ministry of Social Affairs, temporary social assistance.
The assistance also includes retirees who benefit from a retirement pension, while excluding them, employees of the diplomatic corps appointed in Lebanese missions abroad, and all workers in public administrations who receive their salaries, wages, or allowances for their monthly fees in other than the Lebanese pound, as well as anyone who receives compensation in other than the Lebanese pound by virtue of his job.
In the event that the employee benefited from more than one party from social assistance, the beneficiary must inform the concerned department about the duplication, and then he is entitled to the higher assistance.
Article 2: The value of the assistance is set at half a salary, and is calculated on the basis of the salary, wage or retirement pension without any increase of any kind or designation, provided that the payment is not less than 1,500,000 Lebanese pounds and not more than 3,000,000 Lebanese pounds.
The value of the temporary social assistance for day laborers, invoice workers and technical service providers is determined by a decision issued by the Minister of Finance.
In the event that any of the above-mentioned people benefited from more than one social assistance, the beneficiary must inform the concerned department about the duplication, and only then is entitled to the higher assistance.
The treasury has the right to recover the money paid unlawfully at all times with legal interest up to the date of payment.
Article 3: This decree shall be effective immediately upon its publication in the Official Gazette.—Presidency Press Office

General Directorate of Lebanon’s Presidency: Information about negotiating demarcation of Lebanon's southern maritime borders national defense...
NNA/February 22/2022
The Presidency Press Office issued the following statement:
“In response to the request of the Legal Department of the “People Want to Reform the System” to obtain information “Related to the negotiations to demarcate Lebanon’s southern maritime borders,” which was received by the Presidency of the Republic on February 18, the General Directorate of the Presidency of the Republic responded today to the aforementioned request in an official letter:
The lawyer of the legal department of the “People want to reform the system.”
Subject: Request for information
Reference: book dated 18/2/2022
“Since you are requesting, in accordance with your letter mentioned in the above reference, to obtain information related to the negotiations aimed at demarcating Lebanon's southern maritime borders,
Since Article 52 of the Lebanese Constitution states the following:
“The President of the Republic negotiates and concludes international treaties in agreement with the Prime Minister which do not become concluded except after the approval of the Council of Ministers.
The government informs the House of Representatives of them when the country's interest and state safety enable it to do so.
As for treaties that contain conditions related to state finance, commercial treaties and others that may not be rescinded year by year, can only be concluded after the approval of the House of Representatives.
Since negotiations on the issue of demarcating Lebanon’s southern maritime borders took place in Naqoura, before it stopped, indirectly with the Israeli enemy, mediated by the US facilitator, hosting and under the banner of the United Nations,
Since Article 5 of Law No. 28 of 10/2/2017 (the right to access information) stipulates the following:
Information that is not disclosed:
A- The administration shall refrain from disclosing the required information if it deals with the following topics:
1- Secrets of national defense, national security and public security.
2- Department of foreign relations of a secret nature.
B- It is forbidden to view the following documents:
4- Preparatory documents and unfinished administrative documents.
And since the present indirect negotiations, even if taken place under the governance of the United Nations and mediated by the United States, are being fought against the Israeli enemy in a way that preserves the national security of Lebanon, which requires that all work related to them be kept in complete secrecy so that the enemy does not run out of it and use it to strengthen its position against Lebanon,
Since, based on the provisions of Article 5 of the Right to Access Information Law, the text of which is presented above, the public administration does not have the right to disclose the information you request, but rather the literalism of the legal text obliges it to refrain from such disclosure.
And since the General Directorate of the Presidency of the Republic is committed to implementing the Lebanese laws and regulations, especially the law on the right to access information, whether that is by giving information according to the law or refraining from that, where the law requires such abstinence.
Since concern for Lebanon's supreme interest is not overridden by any consideration that would compromise it, knowing that the General Directorate of the Presidency of the Republic will adhere to any constitutional path when necessary, Therefore, it is not possible to answer your request according to the foregoing.
General Director of the Presidency of the Republic Antoine Choucair”.— Presidency Press Office

Lebanon's president rejects claims about concessions in talks on maritime border dispute with Israel
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 22, 2022
Lebanon president rejects claims about concessions in talks on maritime border dispute with Israel
BEIRUT: Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Tuesday that “all the statements made about the indirect negotiation process with Israel on the concession in the maritime border dispute with Israel are not true. Those launching these claims are not aware of what happened during the discussions, which will preserve Lebanon’s rights and natural wealth, and that is what is important.”His office refused to disclose any information relating to the talks, saying that “it must be strictly confidential because it relates to national security.”
The People Want Movement, an activist group, had requested information regarding the negotiation on the grounds that “when the ruling authority agrees to start negotiations with Israel accepting Line 23 as the new starting point for maritime border negotiations, it gives up 1,430 square kilometers of Lebanon’s right.”The presidency dismissed the movement’s request for information, stressing that “the required information should not be disclosed as it deals with secrets of national defense, national security and public security.”Dr. Issam Khalifa, a professor of history at the Lebanese University who has been researching for more than two decades the demarcation of Lebanon’s borders stressed that it is “important that the Lebanese delegation, negotiating indirectly Israel through a US mediation, adhere to Line 29 as the starting point for maritime border negotiations. This line represents the border between the two areas for Lebanon and Israel with the approval of the president,” he said. “Line 23 is illegal. It means that Lebanon has abandoned 1,430 square kilometers, which is contrary to the interests of the Lebanese people,” Khalifa said. Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib said on Monday: “Lebanon received from the US mediator Amos Hochstein when he visited Lebanon on Feb. 8 an oral offer that I cannot disclose, but nothing is written or official yet.”Ali Hamdan, adviser to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, said: “The result of the demarcation determines the line. It may be Line 23 or Line 29 or an area before or after these two lines. It is up to the demarcation process to determine that. “In 2010-2011, the Lebanese government sent a letter to the UN spelling out Lebanon’s claim to the demarcation area based on Line 23,” Hamdan said. Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s government sent in 2011 Decree No. 6433 to the UN, which adopts Line 23 for demarcating the maritime border with Israel.The indirect negotiations, which took place in October 2020, were frozen by the Israeli side after the Lebanese delegation changed and increased its demands as negotiations began. Hamdan expects the issue to be resolved within two months. He also expects the return of US mediator Hochstein to Lebanon within a month and a half. “Hezbollah will accept the results, whatever they may be, if accepted by the Lebanese government, even on the basis of Line 23,” Hamdan noted. The leaked information about Hochstein’s ideas indicates that “Lebanon could accept a zigzag line that would eliminate any partnership in the disputed fields between Lebanon and Israel. According to this information, “the Qana field will belong to Lebanon in full, while the Karish field will belong to Israel in full, with proposals of the possibility of joint investment, whereas a giant company will invest in the disputed fields and agree to distribute the proceeds. However, the Lebanese side rejects any attempt that aims to normalize relations with Israel, which according to the Lebanese constitution, is an enemy.”During his stay in Lebanon, the US mediator said that this opportunity will help Lebanon come out of its economic crises by extracting gas and oil, once the problem is resolved.

Mikati meets Fayyad, special ministerial committee over electricity dossier
NNA/February 22/2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Tuesday met with Minister of Energy and Water, Dr. Walid Fayyad, at the Grand Serail, followed by a meeting of the special Ministerial Committee tasked to study the electricity dossier, to continue discussions over the electricity sector plan developed by the Minister of Energy.
The Committee includes, in addition to Fayyad, Ministers of Education and Higher Education, Justice, Finance, Social Affairs, Industry, Telecommunications, Culture, Environment, Agriculture, and Public Works and Transportation, as well as the Director General of the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Antoine Choucair, the Secretary-General of the Council of Ministers, Judge Mahmoud Makieh, President of the Council for Development and Reconstruction Nabil El-Jisr, Director General of Electricite Du Liban (EDL), Kamal Hayek, and Premier Mikati’s Bureau Chief Jamal Karim.

Berri receives Minister of Defense, National Anti-Corruption Authority, UNIFIL’s Del Col
NNA/February 22/2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Tuesday welcomed at his Ain El-Tineh residence head of the National Anti-Corruption Authority, Judge Claude Karam, and members of the commission, who paid him an acquaintance visit. Berri then received “UNIFIL" Commander, General Stefano Del Col, who paid him a farewell visit marking the end of his mission in Lebanon. The House Speaker also had an audience with Minister of National Defense, Maurice Sleem, with whom he discussed the country’s general situation, especially on the security level.

Israeli Jets Overfly Southern Cities and Towns at Low, Medium Altitudes
Naharnet/February 22/2022
Israeli warplanes on Tuesday overflew the southern cities of Sidon and Tyre and the western and central sectors of the South at low altitude, the National News Agency said. The jets broke the sound barrier over southern towns and villages, NNA added. Israeli warplanes also staged intensive overflights at medium altitude in the skies of the southern regions of Nabatiyeh and Iqlim al-Tuffah. An Israeli drone of the Hermes type meanwhile hovered over Israel’s Metulla at low altitude without crossing into Lebanon. Two Israeli warplanes had overflown Beirut and its suburbs at a very low altitude in a mock raid on Friday, minutes after Hizbullah claimed responsibility for a drone that overflew northern Israel for 40 minutes. The buzzing of the fighter jets jolted residents, rattled windows and set off some car alarms on Friday. Israel and Hizbullah are bitter enemies that fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israel considers the Iranian-backed Hizbullah to be its greatest immediate threat, possessing an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel. Earlier this week, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing military drones in Lebanon, and has the technology to turn thousands of missiles in its possession into precision-guided munitions.

UNIFIL Head Notes 'Unique Momentum' to Build on 'Existing Stability' in South
Naharnet/February 22/2022
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col on Tuesday inaugurated a photographic exhibition in the Lebanese capital, highlighting a "unique momentum" to "collectively build on the existing stability in south Lebanon and move forward," UNIFIL said.
Opening the exhibition of more than 60 photographs, including some historic maps, Major General Del Col said these photographs tell the story of the long journey UNIFIL and Lebanese populations have made together in the last 44 years. “The images capture the painful past experienced by the people of south Lebanon. They also tell their story of strength and the pursuit of a more promising future,” he said, before an audience of government officials, diplomats and representatives of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), among others. Recalling the words of U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres that UNIFIL is the “symbol of stability in an unstable region,” Del Col said: “We operate in such a delicate context that even a minor miscalculation or misunderstanding can have profound and grave consequences.”He also paid tributes to those UNIFIL peacekeepers who have lost their lives while serving far away from their families and loved ones. “Their sacrifices for the security and stability of south Lebanon will not be forgotten,” he added. The venue of the exhibition, the Beit Beirut cultural center, is itself an architectural testament to overcoming conflict. Constructed from rubble from Lebanon’s civil war, now contrasted with modern steel and glass, this arts center shows the scars of conflict as well as a light-filled vision for the present. “The images of destruction and chaos can be confined to history books and to the war-wounded-walls of this house,” the UNIFIL head said. “It should remind the next generations of the cost of conflict and serve as further inspiration for us all to work together for the benefit of peace.” In his remarks, the Governor of Beirut, Judge Marwan Abboud, applauded UNIFIL’s role, together with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF), in maintaining calm along the Blue Line and in south Lebanon. “This place is called the House of Beirut; we wanted to keep it as it is to remind people about the difficulties of war and the importance of peace,” he said. “Lebanon suffered a lot because wars have ripped it apart since 1975… you (UNIFIL) have played an important role in maintaining peace and supporting locals in the south… the State and the people of Lebanon are thankful for your efforts and contributions.”At the ceremony, the LAF Commander General Joseph Aoun was represented by Brigadier General Ali Kanso. The images on display capture UNIFIL’s work in south Lebanon and along the Blue Line since 1978, in the areas of core peacekeeping, demining, community support, COVID-19 prevention, and assistance in the rehabilitation of the Beirut Port after the 2020 explosions and surrounding areas. The exhibition will keep its doors open to the public from Tuesday, February 22 till Thursday, February 24, from 3pm to 7pm.'

Bahaa Hariri joins political fray ahead of upcoming Lebanon elections
Reuters/The Arab Weekly/February 22/2022
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s estranged older brother says he hopes upcoming elections in crisis-hit Lebanon will bring about a new generation of leaders, adding that he will do whatever he can to bring about positive change and accountability for past corruption.
Bahaa Hariri also described the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah as a terrorist organisation, calling it part of the country’s “failed past.”His statements this week came a month after his brother, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, announced he was bowing out of politics and would not run in parliament elections scheduled for May. Hariri’s bombshell decision marked the first time in three decades the powerful Sunni family was out of politics, adding uncertainty in a country grappling with a financial meltdown. Bahaa Hariri has not said whether he will step in and run for office himself. The two brothers have been at odds since Saad Hariri took over the mantle of his slain father, Rafik Hariri, after he was assassinated in a massive truck bombing in 2005. Afterward, the family chose Saad Hariri to lead, skipping over his brother, Bahaa, who is several years his senior.
Confrontational figure
Bahaa, who is seen as confrontational compared to the more moderate Saad, has in recent years criticised his brother for being too soft and compromising on Hezbollah, coexisting with the Iran-backed group in successive coalition governments he led. That also cost him support from Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia, the rival of Iran, who came to perceive him as too lenient with Hezbollah. Mired in financial troubles and having lost Saudi Arabia’s political support, the former premier announced he was leaving politics and would not run in the elections, calling on his political movement, the Future Movement, to take the same step. Bahaa Hariri has not said whether he will be running himself or will only support candidates in the elections. It is also not entirely clear whether Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman sees him as the kingdom’s new man in Lebanon. The 56-year-old businessman has lived outside Lebanon for most of his life. He has been widely criticised for staying away, only parachuting in when his brother hit trouble. Many among those who revolted against the political class in 2019 are unlikely to support Bahaa Hariri, whose family was blamed for corruption in the post-civil war era.
Bahaa Hariri’s name was first mentioned in Lebanese media reports as a possible Saudi-backed candidate to replace his brother when Saad Hariri announced his resignation from the Saudi capital in November 2017, citing Hezbollah’s dominance of Lebanon. Top Lebanese officials believe Saudi Arabia forced the resignation on Hariri at the time. The dramatic move backfired: Hariri returned home and restored his alliance with Hezbollah, losing Saudi backing.He resigned as prime minister in 2019 in response to nationwide mass protests against the country’s ruling class.
Up against his brother and Hezbollah
“The difference between me and family members who have practiced politics in the last 15 years is very wide and I cannot accept the failed policies practiced by some, which led the country to this collapse,” said Bahaa Hariri, in an indirect reference to his brother. “The people are demanding a new generation of leadership that is completely divorced from those who for the last 15 years led us to where we are today, a failed state.”Hariri, who replied Sunday to written questions sent to him by the Associated Press from his base in London, suggested he would not work with Hezbollah. “I see Hezbollah as the failed past not the future of Lebanon. Terrorist organisations destroy countries they don’t build nations,” he said. “The people don’t need more bullets, they need bread, jobs, electricity and a government that serves all the people.”Bahaa Hariri worked in his family’s construction and development company, Saudi Oger, in Saudi Arabia. He later left the company and now runs his own real estate and investment businesses. Bahaa Hariri has recently been spending significant money in Lebanon, funding an online media platform called Sawt Beirut International and a political movement called Sawa Li Lubnan, or Together for Lebanon, casting it as a vehicle for change. Among his priorities, he said, is to have an open and transparent financial audit of the entire government and banking sector. “Where has the money gone?” he asked. “All those responsible for corruption should be brought before the courts and held accountable for their actions.”

Late artist Sami Clark's burial ceremony kicks off at St. George's Church in Shweir
NNA/February 22/2022
The funeral ceremony of late renowned Lebanese artist, Sami Clark, has kicked off at St. George Church in Shweir.
Greek Orthodox Metropolitan of Mount Lebanon, Archbishop Silwan Moussa, is presiding over prayers for the comfort of the soul of the deceased, representing the Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Antioch and all the East, John X. MP Elias Bou Saab is attending the funeral representing President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, Speaker of the House, Nabih Berri, and Prime Minister, Najib Mikati.

Derian, Ibrahim broach latest local developments
NNA/February 22/2022
Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, on Tuesday welcomed at Dar Al-Fatwa General Security Chief, Major General Abbas Ibrahim, with whom he discussed the general situation, and the latest developments on the Lebanese scene.

Geagea Says Elections Will be a 'Political War of Liberation'
Naharnet/February 22/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Tuesday said that the upcoming parliamentary elections will be a “political war of liberation,” after a top Hizbullah official suggested that the vote will be a “political July War” against Hizbullah. Commenting on Sayyed Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyed’s claim that rivals and foes “want (to end) our arms and resistance so that the upper hand in our country goes to Israel and America,” Geagea said the Lebanese “want legitimate arms and a state, so that the upper hand in our country be for the Lebanese.”Al-Sayyed had earlier warned that “the Americans, Israelis and Europeans want to seize the arms, resistance and society to bring a parliament that can elect a president and form a government that would do what they want.”“Electoral money has started flowing, and according to the price of each person, 50 to 100 dollars will be dispensed,” the Hizbullah official added.

”To protect and to build”
Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanon/February 22/2022
With parliamentary elections fast approaching, Hezbollah is looking to build on the gains that it made in the 2018 election, with analysts saying that their influence could potentially spread outside of Shiite-dominated areas, in communities where there is a representation vacuum.
People cheer as they attend in a hall in a school in the southern suburb of Lebanon's capital Beirut on January 3, 2022 a televised speech by the head of the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah during a memorial service marking the second anniversary of a US drone strike that killed the top commander of the Iranian revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) Qasem Soleimani alongside Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Photo: Anwar Amro, AFP. We stay, we protect and we build.
According to Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, this will be the group’s electoral slogan for the upcoming May 15 elections, which he announced during his February 16 speech commemorating the members of the party that had been killed since its inception in 1982.
“Yes, we build, serve, and work in the service of our people, and in all the places where we worked, we used to do that,” the Hezbollah leader stated during the televised address. But there are many differences between what Nasrallah says on television for the benefit of the entire Lebanese population and what other Hezbollah officials say to the electorate at meetings held in Hussainiyah.
Head of Hezbollah’s Political Council, Ibrahim Amin al-Sayed, for instance, held a speech on Tuesday in Al Ain, Northern Bekaa.
“The upcoming parliamentary elections are tantamount to a July political war, because they want our weapons, our resistance, and our society so that the word in our country is for Israel and America,” he told the audience, as quoted by the National News Agency. “The Americans, the Israelis, and the Europeans want our arms, resistance and society, to come to a parliament that can elect a president of the republic who forms a government that can do whatever they want.”
He also said voters get paid $50-100 to cast their vote for pro-Western forces. Mohanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, says that so far, Hezbollah has shown little interest in focusing its efforts on adding to the nearly dozen seats it holds in the current parliament. The party faces no real opposition in the territories that the group itself is running in. Rather, Hage Ali says that what matters to the group is making sure that its allies do well in the elections, and potentially expanding its role in the Sunni community now that Saad Hariri and his Future Movement are no longer running. “Hezbollah’s focus in these elections seems mostly on deploying the Shiite vote to increase the chances of their ailing allies, rather than winning against their weak and disorganized Shiite adversaries,” Hage Ali told NOW.
Building on the past
Hezbollah’s 2022 election slogan is nothing new to supporters of the group.
During the 2018 elections, Hezbollah ran under the slogan “We protect and we build,” making its current slogan “We stay, we protect and we build,” only a slight variation of their previous one. “The party added today ‘We will stay.’ That is, the party will continue and will continue its path of construction and resistance,” Beirut-based Hezbollah analyst Kassem Kassir told NOW. When it comes to protection, Nasrallah expressed support for the Lebanese Armed Forces and insisted “on the role of the Lebanese army and protect it, insist on the need to support it, and open the door to the rest of the world that wants to help it” all the while arguing that the role that the armed wing of Hezbollah plays is just a significant when it comes to protecting Lebanon. “It is sufficient for this environment to protect the resistance and not to abandon it and embrace it to be a partner in all the victories that have happened to date,” Nasrallah said. However, Nasrallah did not elaborate much on what was meant by building. During the 15-year Israeli occupation of Lebanon, which ended in 2000, and the July 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel, the Jihad al-Bina foundation, Arabic for Jihad of Construction, was set up by Hezbollah helped to rebuild homes damaged or destroyed in the fighting.
Since these conflicts, though, there has been little need for the group to utilize this foundation as there have been few if any reconstruction needs.According to Kassir, Nasrallah’s idea of building is more of a metaphorical and ideological concept rather than literal, physical construction.
“The Party is preparing to launch its electoral program, and it wants to focus on internal issues and how to confront the economic, social and living crises,” Kassir stated. Hage Ali disagrees with this notion, arguing that Hezbollah has ambitions to physically grow and build on its already dominating influence in Lebanon. Hezbollah’s attempt to supply diesel and gasoline during the energy crisis will be replicated in other contexts, basically through development projects in Shiite areas and beyond perhaps, depending on financial capacity.
“I think this is quite literal,” the analyst said. “Given how the Vienna talks are moving forward, one should expect a major Hezbollah initiative in case Iran’s financial capability is restored. A development plan as such can go a long way in Lebanon. So the word “build” here could mean a post-war reconstruction or an actual non-state development plan in the next phase.”
Hage Ali looked specifically at Hezbollah’s importing of Iranian fuel in September 2021 when Lebanon was in the midst of a crippling fuel crisis amid the worsening economic crisis, and explained that if a deal is struck between Iran and the United States, then Hezbollah would likely receive more funding from Iran. This would allow them to not only replicate the fuel importing, but potentially expand it into other infrastructural programs in and outside of the Shiite community. With Lebanon continuing to face a devastating economic crisis, which the World Bank called “one of the top 10, possibly top three most severe economic collapses worldwide since the 1850s,” the possibility of having programs that ease the strain of the economic crisis could be welcomed throughout Lebanon, even in areas that have usually been opposed to the Shiite group such as Tripoli. “Hezbollah’s attempt to supply diesel and gasoline during the energy crisis will be replicated in other contexts, basically through development projects in Shiite areas and beyond perhaps, depending on financial capacity,” Hage Ali stated. “The organization could try to expand beyond the current relief support it’s providing for the communities in Shiite areas. They have created a great deal of propaganda around their co-ops and diesel shipments and could replicate this around let’s say a couple of factories and some development and support for local production efforts. This could happen, and would go a long way in political branding.”While these might be Hezbollah’s long-term goals, their immediate focus is on the elections and making sure that their allies in the Christian and Sunni communities not only regain their seats, but win more.
A powerful ally
Since Hezbollah first entered the Lebanese political sphere in the 1992 elections, the party has steadily gained more seats and power. But what propelled Hezbollah into a serious political force was after the Shiite party and the Maronite Christian Free Patriotic Movement signed the Mar Mikhael Agreement in 2006, just before the July war with Israel. This agreement gave Hezbollah a powerful ally in a large Christian party in Lebanon and formed a long-lasting coalition that has served to empower the group and which helped propel the FPM’s founder, Michel Aoun, into the presidency.
Sixteen years later, the agreement still stands, although the FPM has started to express concern over the alliance. Both Aoun and the leader of the FPM, Gebran Bassil, who is also Aoun’s son-in-law, stated that the agreement might need to be renegotiated. On February 5, Hezbollah, the FPM and Amal Movement, Lebanon’s other Shiite party headed by Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, announced that they would form an alliance for the 2022 elections. With Hezbollah and Amal facing little serious opposition in their electoral districts, Hezbollah is now focusing on making sure that the FPM and its other allies do well in the election in order to maintain the alliance’s majority in Parliament.
“The strategy is ensuring Gebran Bassil’s survival,” Hage Ali said. “Ensuring Gebran’s survival and trying to carve out a share of Sunni representation.”“The Party seeks to support its allies first,” Kassir agreed. “It is ready for dialogue with the new groups that may enter Parliament in order to present a reform project.”The FPM has continued to be the dominant Christian party in Lebanon, but following the clashes in Tayyouneh, an area on the border of the Christian-dominated Ain el-Remmaneh and Shiite-dominated Chiyeh neighborhoods in Beirut, on October 14, the FPM’s alliance with Hezbollah, whose supporters took part in the deadly shootout, reflected badly on the Christian party. In addition to this, it helped bolster Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces, a Christian party that is in staunch opposition to Hezbollah, image as the defenders of Lebanon’s Christians.
Because of this and the growing discontent among Lebanese Christians with Hezbollah, it opens up the potential for the FPM to lose seats to the LF which poses a serious concern for the Shiite group.
In Batroun, Bassil’s electoral district, Geagea announced that the LF would be running former MTV editor Ghaith Yazbeck for one of the two parliamentary seats in the district. The gap left by Hariri and his Future Movement also poses a lucrative opportunity for Hezbollah, which has reportedly already made moves to send aid to impoverished communities in Akkar. Without the Future Movement running in areas like Tripoli, it allows for other allies, such as Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Azm Movement, to make gains. “The worst case would be a crushing defeat to the Bassil bloc, basically getting a smaller bloc than LF, while failing to grab some of the Hariri vacuum,” Hage Ali said. “This would lead to a reset to the 2005 to 2018 era when anti-Hezbollah majorities dominated the parliamentary vote.”On the opposite end of the spectrum, if Bassil and the FPM are able to hold its Christian majority in Parliament and Hezbollah’s Sunni allies are able to win more seats now that Hariri is no longer the dominating Sunni force, then that would go a long way for Hezbollah to continue its dominance in Lebanon. “The best-case scenario would be increasing or maybe doubling their Sunni allies’ bloc, currently at six, with Bassil surviving this with the least possible damage, by maintaining a Christian bloc which is larger than the LF, or at least equal,” Hage Ali explained. “If this happens, and they can maintain with their allies a majority in parliament, losing some on the Christian front, and gaining some on the Sunni one, this would be a success for the organization.”
*Nicholas Frakes is a multimedia journalist with @NOW_leb. He tweets @nicfrakesjourno.

Aoun: : There are about 11 organizations of terrorism in Damascus. Among them, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front and the General Command Front of the Palestinians [Liberation Army], all of them are listed in the United States as classified as terrorist organizations.
From Aoun's 2002 Archives/INTERVIEW
Lebanon’s Former Prime Minister Seeks Freedom from Syria
September 12, 2002
CBN.com Syria is a nation which is known to support terrorism, but for years its agenda of subversion in Lebanon, Israel, and elsewhere has gone unchecked. Now Congress may vote on the Syria Accountability Act. To learn more about the persecution of Christians, and the threats posed by Syria, Pat Robertson spoke with General Michel Aoun, the elected Prime Minister of Lebanon who was forced from power when Syrian forces seized control of Lebanon.
PAT ROBERTSON: Just think, Lebanon was a model country, a beautiful country, and the Christians elected the president. The Christians have roughly half of the population of Lebanon, it’s a little less than 50 percent now. But they are second class citizens, they’re being trampled underfoot by the Syrians, and nobody seems to be doing anything about it.
With me is General Michel Aoun who is the former prime minister of Lebanon and the former commander-in-chief of the armed forces. General Aoun, delighted to have you with us on The 700 Club, welcome. Tell me about Hezbollah. We hear about the terrorist group Hezbollah. What relation do they have to Syria?
GENERAL AOUN: Hezbollah is not a separate entity from Syria. It is under the Syrian operational control.
ROBERTSON: The so-called terrorist group is under the operational control of Syria?
AOUN: Yes, 100 percent, no question about that.
ROBERTSON: I understand that Damascus is the headquarters of a number of other terrorist organizations that have received aid and assistance from the Syrians. Can you tell us what they are, those other terrorist organizations?
AOUN: There are about 11 organizations of terrorism in Damascus. Among them, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Democratic Front and the General Command Front of the Palestinians [Liberation Army], all of them are listed in the United States as classified as terrorist organizations.
ROBERTSON: I understand that there were estimated as many as 10,000 Katyusha rockets that were moved from Syria into Lebanon to reinforce Hezbollah against Israel. Is something like that the case?
AOUN: Yes, since Lebanon was occupied by Syria, they extended the base of their terror operations to Lebanon, and they are stationed in Syria, but they act from the Lebanese territory.
ROBERTSON: Bashar Assad [leader of Syria] made a shocking statement that you called into account. He said that all Israelis are combatants and therefore there’s no such thing as an innocent civilian in Israel. Could you comment on that?
AOUN: Yes, during the Arab Summit in Beirut last March, I think, he made this declaration that there is no civilian in Israel, all of them are military.
ROBERTSON: So you can shoot any one of them you want to as a combatant?
AOUN: He did not say it like that directly, but it means that.
ROBERTSON: All right. What happened and how did Syria get control of Lebanon? Lebanon was essentially a Christian country. How did they gain this dominance in the country?
AOUN: They first destabilized the country by opening the Syrian borders to the Palestinians and they came from Syria with the refugees who were stationed in Lebanon. Together they destabilized Lebanon and called it a civil war, but it was not a civil war.
ROBERTSON: Then they came in to stop the so-called civil war that they engendered?
AOUN: They created it. That’s what we call in military terminology “indirect strategy.” You make a problem and then you come to solve it.
ROBERTSON: What is the danger to world peace? We are engaged in a war on terror and yet the Syrians are in the United Nations Security Council how can that be?
AOUN: It's a big contradiction that we have to solve in the world. Because people, the terrorist regimes, they are still, you know, having good stature in the world. And there are terrorist regimes like Syria that are generating terrorist organizations. Therefore, I propose a plan that first, to disarm the organizations; second, to democratize the regimes; and then to help them to develop their country.
ROBERTSON: What do you think of President Bush’s initiative to go against Saddam Hussein to help democratize Iraq? Is that a wise course or not?
AOUN: I would like personally to see that all of the United Nations resolutions be implemented. And if Iraq complies with these resolutions, maybe it would be a happy end for everybody.
ROBERTSON: Okay. What is happening to the Christians? When I was there in 1972, Beirut was the Paris of the Middle East, a beautiful city, and then little by little it’s been torn asunder. What is the role of a lot of the Christians now? What is being done to them in Lebanon?
AOUN: They are rejected as second class citizens and they don’t enjoy liberty and freedom. And they are threatened.
ROBERTSON: We have pictures of Lebanese Christians being beaten by Lebanese soldiers who were apparently in the employ of Syria. How does that happen?
AOUN: There are some collaborators in Lebanon, especially among the politicians. We have a puppet government, and they represent the Syrians instead of representing the Lebanese people. They do everything that they are asked to do. Between those, they have some military units especially organized for that. And between these military units, we have many intelligence agents and they participate all the time to torture and arrest and beat people.
ROBERTSON: Arrest, torturing, and beating, and no more freedom of speech now.
AOUN: No, no more.
ROBERTSON: This resolution is before the Congress, the Syria Accountability Act. What would you like to see done and see America do?
AOUN: First we would like America to support this bill, to vote for it in the Congress and the Senate. And also to pray for the Lebanese, you know, to liberate Lebanon. Because Lebanon is a pluralist society that may help spread the human values all around.
ROBERTSON: You are a man of great courage, and I thank you for being here. Many times your life has been in danger and you have been extremely brave, so thank you very much for being with us. God bless you.
Ladies and gentlemen, what the General was speaking about, there is an initiative now before the United States Congress called the Syria Accountability Act. It is supported by 150 Democrat and Republican sponsors in the House of Representatives and a remarkable 35 sponsors in the Senate. The principal sponsor in the Senate is Senator Barbara Boxer, a Democrat of California and Senator Rick Santorum, a Republican from Pennsylvania. So it is a bipartisan initiative.
This picture on your screen that you see shows, on the one hand, there is a rally of the Christians to pray and celebrate and mourn with America for its attack on September 11th. And on the right hand side are the Syrians and those opposed to the Christians, burning the American flag. So that’s the choice we have.
Folks, this bill is kind of like a no-brainer. But we understand there’s a gentleman named Dave Satterfield [U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs] in the State Department, who is opposed to the Christians in Lebanon. And he wants Lebanon to stay under the Syrian domination. But I don’t think one holdover from the Clinton administration should stop a bill that has this kind of broad sponsorship in the Congress. And I understand the White House is asking Henry Hyde not to bring it forth in the House.
But it needs to come out in the House of Representatives, and the President needs to get behind it. He’s a Christian and he’s against terror and to think that there are 11 terrorist regimes being given sanctuary in Syria, which in turn is tied in with Iran, which in turn is tied in with, I’m sure, Al Qaeda and the other terrorists that have been coming against America.
This is the bill. I think you ought to call not just your congressman, but the White House. This has overwhelming sponsorship. It is called the Syria Accountability Act. I would like you to call the White House and say the President should to stand on the side of the Christians in Lebanon, and get Syria out of Lebanon, and be free as it should be, and have its own government and its own authority as it had for many years. And the Syrians are invaders and they ought to come out of there. The White House phone number is 1-202-456-1414, fax number is 1-202-456-2461.
Or you can write to the White House, and address it President Bush who I know would be on the side of freedom and liberty, and this would be a blow against terror. We want to shut down 10 or 11 terrorist organizations currently headquartered in Syria, if you can believe it, a nation on the United Nation’s Security Council. Write or call the White House, also let your congressman or senator know. This needs to get passed. If the State Department doesn’t like it, that’s tough luck. I think its time we stand up for freedom around the world, and not just kowtow to terrorist regimes who we think might help us somewhere along the way. No way! Syria is bad news and we need to hold them accountable and get them out of Lebanon.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 21-22/2022
Biden cuts Western financing for Russian sovereign debt in first tranche of sanctions
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/Published: 22 February ,2022
US President Joe Biden announced what he called the “first tranche” of sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, beginning by cutting off Western financing for the country’s sovereign debt. “Who in the Lord’s name does Putin think gives him the right to declare new so-called countries on territory that belonged to its neighbors?” Biden said in his first televised remarks since Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the independence of two Moscow-backed regions in Ukraine. “This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said. “He’s setting up a rationale to take more territory by force.”Two Russian banks and Russia’s sovereign debt will be hit first, Biden said. Russian oligarchs and their families will be sanctioned in the coming days, he added. “That means we’ve cut off Russia’s government from Western financing. They can no longer raise money from the West and cannot trade in its new debt on our markets or European markets either,” the US president said. As for Russia’s elites and their family members, Biden said: “They share in the corrupt… of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well.”
Nord Stream 2 will go to waste
Speaking to reporters after Biden’s remarks, a senior administration official said that Nord Stream 2 would not become operational. “That’s an $11 billion investment and gas pipeline controlled by Russia that will now go to waste. This decision will relieve Russia’s geostrategic chokehold over Europe through supply of natural gas,” the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said. “It’s a major turning point in the world’s energy independence from Russia,” he said. Germany had announced a temporary halt to the underwater pipeline that would see gas sent from Russia to Germany, bypassing Ukraine. A US official told Al Arabiya English earlier that the pipeline was “killed for good” in a development that had not been previously reported. Still time for diplomacy, Biden says. Despite warning that Putin planned to further invade Ukraine, Biden said the door for diplomacy was still open. “There is still time to avert the worst-case scenario that will bring untold suffering to millions of people if they move as suggested,” he said. Former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea played down Biden’s moves.“Not much bark today, and very little bite. This will not deter Putin,” he tweeted, adding that VEB had already been under select restrictions since 2014.

Russia moves to secure its hold on Ukraine’s rebel regions
The Associated Press, Moscow/22 February ,2022
Russia moved quickly Tuesday to secure its hold on Ukraine’s rebel regions following the recognition of their independence with legislation allowing the deployment of troops there in a challenge to Western governments, which are preparing to announce sanctions against Moscow. The new Russian bills, which are set to be quickly rubber-stamped by the Kremlin-controlled parliament, may set the stage for Russian troops to move deeper into Ukraine as the US and its allies have feared. Quickly after he signed the decree, convoys of armored vehicles were seen rolling across the separatist-controlled territories. It wasn’t immediately clear if they were Russian.President Vladimir Putin’s decision Monday to recognize the rebel regions as independent states follows a nearly eight-year old separatist conflict that has killed more than 14,000 and devastated Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland called Donbas. The latest developments and move by Putin were met with reprehension by many countries around the world. Ever since the conflict erupted weeks after Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Moscow of backing the separatists with troops and weapons, the charges it has denied, saying that Russians who fought in the east were volunteers. Putin’s move on Monday formalizes Russia’s hold on the regions and gives it a free hand to deploy its forces there.
Several senior lawmakers suggested on Tuesday that Russia could recognize the rebel-held territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine in their original administrative borders, including the chunks of land currently under the Ukrainian control. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought to project calm, telling the country in an address overnight: “We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don’t owe anyone anything. And we won’t give anything to anyone.” His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, would be in Washington on Tuesday to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the State Department said. The White House responded quickly, issuing an executive order to prohibit US investment and trade in the separatist regions, and additional measures — likely sanctions — were to be announced Tuesday. Those sanctions are independent of what Washington has prepared in the event of a Russian invasion, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity.
Britain and European Union countries have separately indicated that they also are planning to announce sanctions. While Ukraine and the West said the Russian recognition of the rebel regions shatters a 2015 peace deal, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, challenged that, noting that Moscow isn’t a party to the Minsk agreement and arguing that it could still be implemented if Ukraine chooses so. The 2015 deal that was brokered by France and Germany and signed in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, required Ukraine to offer a sweeping self-rule to the rebel regions in a diplomatic coup for Russia after a series of Ukrainian military defeats. Many in Ukraine resented the deal as a betrayal of national interests and a blow to the country’s integrity, and its implementation has stalled. Putin announced the move in an hourlong televised speech, blaming the US and its allies for the current crisis and describing Ukraine’s bid to join NATO as an existential challenge to Russia.
“Ukraine’s membership in NATO poses a direct threat to Russia’s security,” he said. Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said on Monday that a simple moratorium on Ukraine’s accession wouldn’t be enough. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.
Putin warned on Monday that the Western rejection of Moscow’s demands gives Russia the right to take other steps to protect its security.
Sweeping through more than a century of history, Putin painted today’s Ukraine as a modern construct used by the West to contain Russia despite the neighbors inextricable links.
In a stark warning to Ukraine, the Russian leader charged that it has unfairly inherited Russia’s historic land granted to it by the Communist rulers of the Soviet Union and mocked its effort to shed the Communist past in a so-called “decommunization” campaign. “We are ready to show you what the real decommunization would mean for Ukraine,” Putin added ominously in an apparent signal of his readiness to raise new land claims.
With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the US has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, President Joe Biden and Putin tentatively agreed to a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron in a last-ditch effort to avoid war.
Macron’s office said Biden and Putin had “accepted the principle of such a summit,” to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other “relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe.”
If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes in diplomacy to prevent a conflict that could devastate Ukraine and cause huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy. Tensions have continued to fly high in eastern Ukraine, with more shelling reported along the tense line of contact between the rebels and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine’s military have rejected the rebel claims of shelling residential areas and insisted that Ukrainian forces weren’t returning fire.

Putin Lays Out Three Conditions to End Ukraine Crisis
Associated Press/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Russian lawmakers on Tuesday authorized President Vladimir Putin to use military force outside the country -- a move that could presage a broader attack on Ukraine after the U.S. said an invasion was already underway there. Several European leaders said Russian troops rolled into rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine after Putin recognized their independence. But it was unclear how large the deployment was, and Ukraine and its Western allies have long said Russian troops were fighting in the region, allegations that Moscow always denied. Members of Russia's upper house, the Federation Council, voted unanimously to allow Putin to use military force outside the country -- effectively formalizing a Russian military deployment to the rebel regions, where an eight-year conflict has killed nearly 14,000 people. Shortly after, Putin laid out three conditions to end the crisis that has threatened to plunge Europe back into war, raising the specter of massive casualties, energy shortages across the continent and economic chaos around the globe. Putin said the crisis could be resolved if Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, renounces its bid to join NATO and partially demilitarizes. The West has decried the annexation of Crimea as a violation of international law and has previously flatly rejected permanently barring Ukraine from NATO.
Asked whether he has sent any Russian troops into Ukraine and how far they could go, Putin responded: "I haven't said that the troops will go there right now." He added coyly that "it's impossible to forecast a specific pattern of action –- it will depend on a concrete situation as it takes shape on the ground."
With tensions rising and a broader conflict looking ever more likely, the White House began referring to the Russian deployments in the region known as the Donbas as an "invasion" after initially hesitating to use the term — a red line that President Joe Biden has said would result in the U.S. levying severe sanctions against Moscow. He scheduled an address for later Tuesday. "We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia's latest invasion into Ukraine," Jon Finer, principal deputy national security adviser, said on CNN. "An invasion is an invasion, and that is what is underway."
The Biden administration's rhetoric hardened considerably in less than 24 hours. The White House announced limited sanctions targeting the rebel-region Monday evening soon after Putin said he was sending troops to eastern Ukraine. A senior Biden administration official, who briefed reporters about the sanctions targeting the breakaway region, noted "that Russia has occupied these regions since 2014" and that "Russian troops moving into Donbas would not itself be a new step."
The administration initially resisted calling the deployment an invasion because the White House wanted to see what Russia was actually going to do. After assessing Russian troop movements, it became clear it was a new invasion, according to a U.S. official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. For weeks, Western powers have been bracing for this as Russia massed an estimated 150,000 troops on three sides of neighboring Ukraine — and promised swift and severe sanctions if it materialized. The European Union and Britain announced Tuesday that some of those measures were coming — and more were expected from the U.S., too. Western leaders have long warned Moscow would look for cover to invade — and just such a pretext appeared to come Monday, when Putin recognized as independent two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, where government troops have fought Russia-backed rebels. The Kremlin then raised the stakes further Tuesday, by saying that recognition extends even to the large parts now held by Ukrainian forces. Putin said Russia has recognized the rebel regions' independence in the borders that existed when they declared their independence in 2014 — broad territories that extend far beyond the areas now under separatist control and that include the major Azov Sea port of Mariupol. He added, however, that the rebels should eventually negotiate with Ukraine. Condemnation from around the world was quick. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would consider breaking diplomatic ties with Russia and Kyiv recalled its ambassador in Moscow.
But confusion over what exactly was happening in eastern Ukraine threatened to hobble a Western response. While Washington clearly called it an invasion, some other allies hedged. "Russian troops have entered in Donbas," EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in Paris. "We consider Donbas part of Ukraine." But he added: "I wouldn't say that (it is) a fully fledged invasion, but Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil." Poland's Defense Ministry and British Health Secretary Sajid Javid also said Russian forces had entered eastern Ukraine, with Javid telling Sky News that "the invasion of Ukraine has begun."
Not all in Europe saw it that way. Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares noted "if Russia uses force against Ukraine, sanctions will be massive." The Kremlin hasn't confirmed any troop deployments to the rebel east, saying it will depend on the security situation. Vladislav Brig, a member of the separatist local council in Donetsk, told reporters that the Russian troops already had moved in, but more senior rebel leaders didn't confirm that. Late Monday, convoys of armored vehicles were seen rolling across the separatist-controlled territories. It wasn't immediately clear if they were Russian. In response to the moves thus far, top EU officials said the bloc was prepared to impose sanctions on several Russian officials and banks financing the Russian armed forces and move to limit Moscow's access to EU capital and financial markets. They gave few details.
EU foreign ministers met Tuesday to discuss the measures — but they did not appear to include the massive punishment repeatedly promised in case of a full-fledged invasion.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said the U.K. would slap sanctions on five Russian banks and three wealthy individuals. While he said that Russian tanks have already rolled into eastern Ukraine, he warned a full-scale offensive would bring "further powerful sanctions."
The White House has also moved to respond, issuing an executive order to prohibit U.S. investment and trade in the separatist regions, and additional measures — likely sanctions — were to be announced Tuesday. Those sanctions are independent of what Washington has prepared in the event of a Russian invasion, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity. The Russian moves also pushed Germany to suspend the certification process for Nord Stream 2 pipeline that was to bring natural gas from Russia. The pipeline was built to help Germany meet its energy needs, particularly as it switches off its last three nuclear power plants and phases out the use of coal, and it has resisted calls by the U.S. and others to halt the project. Even as alarm spread across the globe, Zelenskyy sought to project calm, saying in an address overnight: "We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don't owe anyone anything. And we won't give anything to anyone." His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, is in Washington to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the State Department said. Russia has long denied it has any plans to invade Ukraine, instead blaming the U.S. and its allies for the crisis and describing Ukraine's bid to join NATO as an existential challenge to Russia. Putin reiterated those accusations in an hourlong televised speech on Monday, when he announced that Russia would recognize the rebels. "Ukraine's membership in NATO poses a direct threat to Russia's security," he said. The Western rejection of Moscow's demands gives Russia the right to take other steps to protect its security, Putin said. The Russian Foreign Ministry said Tuesday it will evacuate its diplomatic personnel from Ukraine "in the nearest time," pointing to attacks on diplomatic buildings, cars and physical threats against diplomats in the Ukrainian cities of Kyiv, Odesa, Lviv and Kharkiv.

European Union Nations Unanimously Approve Sanctions on Russia
Associated Press/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
The 27 European Union members nations have unanimously agreed on an initial set of sanctions targeting Russian officials over their actions in Ukraine, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drianance's foreign minister said. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said the package approved Tuesday "will hurt Russia, and it will hurt a lot."Borrell said the sanctions would affect members of Russia's lower house of parliament and other individuals involved in approving the deployment of Russian troops to separatist-held regions of eastern Ukraine. He says the package will also affect Russia's financing of policies linked to Ukraine by limiting access to EU financial markets. "This story is not finished," said Borrell of Russian actions in Ukraine.

Iran Returns Donated Vaccines Because They Were Made in US
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Iran has returned 820,000 doses of coronavirus vaccines donated by Poland because they were manufactured in the United States, state TV reported Monday. TV quoted Mohammad Hashemi, an official in the country’s Health Ministry, as saying that Poland donated about a million doses of the British-Swedish AstraZeneca vaccine to Iran. “But when the vaccines arrived in Iran, we found out that 820,000 doses of them which were imported from Poland were from the United States,” he said, The Associated Press reported. Hashemi said “after coordination with the Polish ambassador to Iran, it was decided that the vaccines would be returned.”Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, in 2020 rejected any possibility of American or British vaccines entering the country, calling them “forbidden."Iran now only imports Western vaccines that are not produced in the US or Britain. Hard-liners swept the parliament and railed against American-made vaccines even as daily deaths shattered records. Iran is struggling with its sixth wave of coronavirus infections and authorities say the aggressive omicron variant is now dominant in the country.With more than 135,000 total deaths from COVID-19, according to official numbers, Iran has the highest national death toll in the Middle East. It says it has vaccinated some 90% of its population above age 18 with two shots, although only 37% of that group has had a third shot. Iran has relied on Sinopharm, the state-backed Chinese vaccine, but offers citizens a smorgasbord of other shots to choose from — Oxford-AstraZeneca, Russia’s Sputnik V, Indian firm Bharat’s Covaxin and its homegrown COVIran Barekat shot. British-Swedish AstraZeneca makes up a substantial amount of Iran’s inoculations.

Biden Ignoring Budapest Memorandum Commitments to Ukraine
Gordon G. Chang/Gatestone Institute/February 22, 2022
To induce Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons inherited on the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the U.S., Great Britain and Russia agreed to provide assurances. If Washington were to allow Russia to gobble up the rest of Ukraine, it would tell non-nuclear states they must have nuclear arsenals because they cannot rely on the nuclear weapons powers for security. Biden's threats have been unpersuasive and so far Putin has not been persuaded. Biden immediately sanctioned the two regions but did not impose costs on the bad actor, Russia. He has promised further measures, but only after an invasion. Moreover, his sanctions are unlikely to be so severe as to force Putin to leave Ukraine. In fact, on the 15th of this month, Biden made it clear that sanctions would be less than regime-threatening. It is now time for the United States to remember the promises made—those in writing and those made informally.
Putin, after all, will not stop at Ukraine. If the U.S. were to allow Russia to gobble up the rest of Ukraine, it would tell non-nuclear states they must have nuclear arsenals because they cannot rely on the nuclear weapons powers for security. Biden's threats have been unpersuasive and so far Putin has not been persuaded. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers on the front-line with Russia-backed separatists near Novognativka village, Donetsk region, on February 21, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an emotional speech on the 21st of this month, made it clear that he believes Ukraine is a part of Russia. U.S. President Joe Biden must now demand that Moscow withdraw its forces from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbas. The Kremlin has, among other things, violated the assurances it gave Kyiv in the Budapest Memorandum. Biden, however, has so far shown little inclination to hold Russia to its promises.
In December 1994, the United States, Great Britain, Russia and Ukraine signed the Memorandum on Security Assurances in Connection with Ukraine's Accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, more commonly known as the Budapest Memorandum.
In that document, the three parties made six commitments to Ukraine. In the most important of the pledges, they stated that they "reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine."
"Some have argued that, since the United States did not invade Ukraine, it abided by its Budapest Memorandum commitments," wrote Steven Pifer of the Brookings Institution in 2019. "True, in a narrow sense. However, when negotiating the security assurances, U.S. officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that, were Russia to violate them, the United States would take a strong interest and respond."
To be clear, as Pifer notes, Washington did not extend a NATO-like guarantee, but the U.S. should nonetheless act vigorously, he argued, "because it said it would act if Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum.""That was part of the price it paid in return for a drastic reduction in the nuclear threat to America," Pifer wrote. "The United States should keep its word." Yes, the U.S. should. To induce Ukraine to give up the nuclear weapons inherited on the dissolution of the Soviet Union—Ukraine ended up with some 6,000 warheads, the world's third-largest arsenal at the time—the U.S., Great Britain, and Russia agreed to provide assurances. If Washington were to allow Russia to gobble up the rest of Ukraine, it would tell non-nuclear states they must have nuclear arsenals because they cannot rely on the nuclear weapons powers for security. So far, the situation is not looking good for Ukraine. In 2014, Vladimir Putin annexed Crimea and effectively sawed off the Donbas region. Neither the U.S. nor Britain imposed crippling costs on Russia for naked aggression. "Boy, after this, nobody is going to give up nuclear weapons," Arthur Waldron of the University of Pennsylvania told Gatestone. As Waldron suggests, American policy toward Ukraine provides a horrible example. This time, the situation is even worse for the former Soviet republic. Russia on February 21 recognized two breakaway regions—the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics—in Donbas and now looks set to take the rest of the country in one giant gulp.
Biden immediately sanctioned the two regions but did not impose costs on the bad actor, Russia. He has promised further measures, but only after an invasion. Moreover, his sanctions are unlikely to be so severe as to force Putin to leave Ukraine. In fact, on the 15th of this month, Biden made it clear that sanctions would be less than regime-threatening. "We do not seek to destabilize Russia," he said. Biden's threats have been unpersuasive and so far Putin has not been persuaded.
"The Biden administration has only belatedly—and half-heartedly—undertaken measures to stop Russian aggression against Ukraine," says Waldron. "Long ago, the President should have given heavy weapons to Kyiv. And he has not substantially reinforced Europe."
Since the Cold War, American policy toward Russia has been premised on the notion that a weak Russia was more of a threat to the U.S. than a strong one. As a result of that assessment, Putin has not had to face an America willing to use power to enforce norms.
Whatever the merits of Washington's tolerant and indulgent approach may have been—I think it was horribly misguided—Putin used this latitude to break apart neighbors and redraw the map of Europe and the Caucasus region with force. It is now time for the United States, to remember the promises made—those in writing and those made informally. Putin, after all, will not stop at Ukraine. *Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China, a Gatestone Institute distinguished senior fellow, and a member of its Advisory Board.
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Russia Flexes Military for Ukraine Move; West to Respond
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Russia set the stage for a quick move to secure its hold on Ukraine's rebel regions on Tuesday with new legislation that would allow the deployment of troops there as the West prepares to announce sanctions against Moscow amid fears of a full-scale invasion. The new Russia bills, which are likely to be quickly rubber-stamped by the Kremlin-controlled parliament, came a day after President Vladimir Putin recognized the independence of the regions in eastern Ukraine. The legislation could be a pretext for a deeper move into Ukrainian territory as the US and its allies have feared.
Quickly after Putin signed the decree late Monday, convoys of armored vehicles were seen rolling across the separatist-controlled territories. It wasn’t immediately clear if they were Russian. Russian officials haven't yet acknowledged any troop deployments to the rebel east, but Vladislav Brig, a member of the separatist local council in Donetsk, told reporters that the Russian troops already had moved in, taking up positions in the region's north and west. Putin’s decision to recognize the rebel regions as independent states follows a nearly eight-year old separatist conflict that has killed more than 14,000 and devastated Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland called Donbas. The latest developments and move by Putin were met with reprehension by many countries around the world.
Ever since the conflict erupted weeks after Russia’s 2014 annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine and its Western allies have accused Moscow of backing the separatists with troops and weapons, the charges it has denied, saying that Russians who fought in the east were volunteers. Putin’s move Monday formalizes Russia’s hold on the regions and gives it a free hand to deploy its forces there. Draft bills that are set quickly sail through both houses of Russian parliament Tuesday, envisage military ties, including possible deployment of Russian military bases in the separatist regions.
Several senior lawmakers suggested Tuesday that Russia could recognize the rebel-held territories in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine in their original administrative borders, including the chunks of land currently under the Ukrainian control.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sought to project calm, telling the country in an address overnight: “We are not afraid of anyone or anything. We don’t owe anyone anything. And we won’t give anything to anyone.” His foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, would be in Washington on Tuesday to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the State Department said.
“The Kremlin recognized its own aggression against Ukraine,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Twitter, describing Moscow’s move as a “New Berlin Wall” and urging the West to quickly slap Russia with sanctions.
The White House responded quickly, issuing an executive order to prohibit US investment and trade in the separatist regions, and additional measures — likely sanctions — were to be announced Tuesday. Those sanctions are independent of what Washington has prepared in the event of a Russian invasion, according to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the condition of anonymity. Other Western allies also said they were planning to announce sanctions.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Tuesday the UK will also introduce “immediate” economic sanctions against Russia, and warned that Putin is bent on “a full-scale invasion of Ukraine ... that would be absolutely catastrophic."Johnson said Putin had “completely torn up international law” and British sanctions would target not just the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk but “Russian economic interests as hard as we can.”
EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said that “Russian troops have entered in Donbas,” adding that “I wouldn’t say that (it is) a fully-fledged invasion, but Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil” and the EU would decide on sanctions later on Tuesday.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak also said in a radio interview Tuesday he could confirm that Russian forces entered the territories, describing it as a violation of Ukraine’s borders and international law.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin on Tuesday said China would “continue to stay in engagement with all parties,” continuing to steer clear from committing to back Russia despite the close ties between Moscow and Beijing. While Ukraine and the West said the Russian recognition of the rebel regions shatters a 2015 peace deal, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, challenged that, noting that Moscow isn't a party to the Minsk agreement and arguing that it could still be implemented if Ukraine chooses so. The 2015 deal that was brokered by France and Germany and signed in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, required Ukraine to offer a sweeping self-rule to the rebel regions in a diplomatic coup for Russia after a series of Ukrainian military defeats. Many in Ukraine resented the deal as a betrayal of national interests and a blow to the country's integrity, and its implementation has stalled.
Putin announced the move in an hourlong televised speech, blaming the US and its allies for the current crisis and describing Ukraine's bid to join NATO as an existential challenge to Russia.
“Ukraine’s membership in NATO poses a direct threat to Russia’s security,” he said. Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won’t allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said Monday that a simple moratorium on Ukraine’s accession wouldn’t be enough. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West. Putin warned Monday that the Western rejection of Moscow's demands gives Russia the right to take other steps to protect its security.
Sweeping through more than a century of history, Putin painted today’s Ukraine as a modern construct used by the West to contain Russia despite the neighbors inextricable links.
In a stark warning to Ukraine, the Russian leader charged that it has unfairly inherited Russia's historic land granted to it by the Communist rulers of the Soviet Union and mocked its effort to shed the Communist past in a so-called “decommunization” campaign.
“We are ready to show you what the real decommunization would mean for Ukraine,” Putin added ominously in an apparent signal of his readiness to raise new land claims. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the US has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, President Joe Biden and Putin tentatively agreed to a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron in a last-ditch effort to avoid war. Macron’s office said Biden and Putin had “accepted the principle of such a summit,” to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other “relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe.” If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes in diplomacy to prevent a conflict that could devastate Ukraine and cause huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy. Tensions have continued to fly high in eastern Ukraine, with more shelling reported along the tense line of contact between the rebels and Ukrainian forces. Ukraine's military said two Ukrainian soldiers were killed and another 12 were wounded by shelling over the last 24 hours. It has rejected the rebel claims of shelling residential areas and insisted that Ukrainian forces weren’t returning fire.

Qatar Opens ‘Communication Channel’ between US, Iran
Doha - Merza al-Khuwaldi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani announced on Monday's his country's readiness to provide assistance to reach an "acceptable solution for all parties" to revive the nuclear agreement between Iran and major powers. Sheikh Tamim held a meeting at the Emiri Diwan in Doha with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who is on an official visit to Doha to participate in the sixth summit of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF). The Emir spoke of the "strong relations" between Doha and Tehran, wishing further development and growth in various fields.
Sheikh Tamim held a press conference with Raisi afterward, announcing that they discussed several regional and international issues of joint interest, namely the security and stability of the region. In this regard, Sheikh Tamim reiterated that dialogue is the best way to resolve all differences and face the various challenges that the region is going through. Raisi briefed Sheikh Tamim on the outcome of the Vienna negotiations regarding the nuclear agreement between Iran and the West and its impact on the security and stability of the region. He said that the US must prove that it will lift sanctions imposed on Tehran during the ongoing indirect talks to salvage the nuclear agreement. He stressed that his country is looking forward to qualitative development and opening new horizons with Qatar, neighboring Gulf countries, and the region, and to boosting cooperation.
Raisi expressed his aspiration to develop Qatari-Iranian relations to benefit the two countries and their peoples. Qatar added the Iran nuclear dispute to its list of diplomatic hotspots where it has taken a mediation role between Washington and Tehran. Earlier this month, Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani went on an unannounced visit to Tehran shortly after Sheikh Tamim met US President Joe Biden in Washington. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that Qatar's unannounced visit to Iran included talks with Raisi and Iran's foreign minister. On Monday, Sheikh Tamim and Raisi signed several bilateral agreements, including two energy deals, Further details were not immediately available. Raisi is the first Iranian President to visit Doha in 11 years. It is his third overseas trip since becoming president in 2021.
Iran is among the world's three largest gas exporters, along with Russia and Qatar, Raisi highlighted. He is accompanied during his visit by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Oil and Cultural Heritage, and the Chief of the Presidential Office.

Pakistani PM to Visit with Russia's Putin as War Fears Loom
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Pakistan’s prime minister will meet with President Vladimir Putin this week, authorities said Tuesday, as Russia loomed over Ukraine and an invasion seemed imminent. A statement from Pakistan's foreign ministry said Prime Minister Imran Khan and a high-level delegation will arrive in Russia Wednesday for a two-day official visit, reported The Associated Press. “Pakistan and Russia enjoy friendly relations marked by mutual respect, trust and convergence of views on a range of international and regional issues," the statement said. It added that Putin and Khan “will review the entire array of bilateral relations including energy cooperation," as well as unnamed regional and international issues. The summit comes as much of the West aligns against Putin amid increasing fears of a war that could cause massive casualties, energy shortages on the continent and chaos around the world. On Monday, Putin ordered forces into separatist regions of eastern Ukraine. His vaguely-worded decree did not say if troops were on the move and it cast the order as an effort to “maintain peace.”The Foreign Ministry statement said Pakistan and Russia will exchange views on major regional and international issues, including Islamophobia and the situation in Afghanistan. The statement made no mention of the Ukraine crisis. But Khan has opposed any military intervention, saying all issues can be resolved through talks and negotiations. Pakistan has good relations with Ukraine, which is an exporter of wheat to Islamabad.

Ukraine-Russia: Germany Suspends Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday, as the West started taking punitive measures against Moscow over the Ukraine crisis. Scholz said his government made the decision in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognition of the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that he said marked a “serious break of international law.”“Now it's up to the international community to react to this one-sided, incomprehensible and unjustified action by the Russian president,” he told reporters in Berlin, adding that it was necessary to “send a clear signal to Moscow that such actions won't remain without consequences.” The decision is a significant move for the German government, which had long resisted pulling the plug on the project despite pressure from the United States and some European countries to do so. Washington has for years argued that building another pipeline bringing natural gas from Russia to Germany increases Europe’s reliance on Russian energy supplies, The Associated Press said. “The situation now is fundamentally different," Scholz said, explaining that the government had decided to withdraw a report on the impact that the pipeline — which hasn’t begun operating yet — would have on the security of Germany's gas supplies. “That may sound technical, but it's a necessary administrative step without which the certification of the pipeline cannot happen now,” he said. Scholz added that Germany's Economy Ministry would reassess the situation in light of the latest developments. “That will certainly take time, if I may say so,” he added. Germany meets about a quarter of its energy needs with natural gas, a share that will increase in the coming years as the country switches off its last three nuclear power plants and phases out the use of coal. About half of the natural gas used in Germany comes from Russia. The government aims to end the use of all fossil fuels in Germany by 2045.

Britain Sanctions 5 Banks and Gennady Timchenko, Johnson Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Britain on Tuesday slapped sanctions on five Russian banks and three men, including Gennady Timchenko, who have close links to Vladimir Putin after the Kremlin chief ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Russia was heading towards "pariah status" and that the world must now brace for the next stage of Putin's plan, saying that the Kremlin was laying the ground for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Britain has threatened to cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds, blocking them from raising capital in London and to expose what Johnson calls the "Russian doll" of property and company ownership. Johnson told parliament that five banks - Rossiya, IS Bank, GenBank, Promsvyazbank and the Black Sea Bank - were being sanctioned, along with three people - Timchenko, Igor Rotenberg and Boris Rotenberg. "This is the first tranche, the first barrage of what we are prepared to do," Johnson said. "Any assets they hold in the UK will be frozen and the individuals concerned will be banned from traveling here," Johnson said of the individuals being sanctioned. Some British lawmakers asked Johnson to be tougher on Russian money, even demanding that Russian oligarchs be ejected from Britain and Russian money be dug out of the City of London. Hundreds of billions of dollars have flowed into London and Britain's overseas territories from Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and London has become the Western city of choice for the super-wealthy of Russia and other former Soviet republics.
Timchenko
Britain said that Timchenko, one of the founders of Gunvor trading company, was a major shareholder in Bank Rossiya, itself a stakeholder in National Media Group which supported the destabilization of Ukraine after Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea. "Bank Rossiya has supported the consolidation of Crimea into the Russian Federation by integrating the financial system following the annexation of Crimea," Britain said. Timchenko, who Forbes says is worth 23.5 billion pounds, is a close ally of Russian President Putin, as are the Rotenbergs, Johnson said. "Boris Rotenberg... is a prominent Russian businessman with close personal ties to (the) Russian President," Britain said. "Igor Rotenberg is a prominent Russian businessmen with close familial ties to President Putin." The US Treasury has also sanctioned the Rotenbergs as being billionaires who have made fortunes under Putin. Britain has threatened to cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds, blocking them from raising capital in London and to expose what Johnson calls the "Russian doll" of property and company ownership. "We must now brace ourselves for the next possible stages of Putin's plan," Johnson said. "Putin is establishing the pretext for a full scale offensive."Russia's once mighty superpower economy is now smaller than Italy's based on IMF data, with a nominal GDP of around $1.7 trillion.

Us Navy Plans Launch of Mideast Drone Force Alongside Partners
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
The United States Navy and security partners will patrol Middle East waters with 100 unmanned vessels next year to improve deterrence against attacks, like those presented by Iran, the US Fifth Fleet commander said on Monday. The region is vital for global trade, especially oil supplies that flow out of the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. There have been high-seas confrontations between US and Iranian forces with attacks on oil tankers in Gulf waters in 2019. Sanctions-hit Iran denied accusations of responsibility. Last year the US Navy established a new task force to integrate drone systems and artificial intelligence into the maritime operations of its Bahrain-stationed Fifth Fleet. "We are at the cusp of an unmanned technological revolution," Vice Admiral Brad Cooper told a defense exhibition in Abu Dhabi, where he unveiled plans for the joint fleet. "By the summer of next year, 100 advanced unmanned surface vessels would be patrolling the waters around this region." Cooper said the United States would join with Middle East allies whose forces have unmanned vessel capabilities to operate much of the new fleet to boost deterrence and threat detection and better secure critical waterways. Israel and the United Arab Emirates, which established diplomatic ties in 2020 and work closely with Washington on regional security, have developed indigenous unmanned assets. "No navy acting alone can protect against all the threats here in this region. The region is simply too big. We must address this in a coordinated multinational way," Cooper said. Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militias, which recently carried out mostly failed drone and missile strikes on the UAE, have also targeted vessels off the Yemeni coast. "It's well established that Iran is the principal security threat in the region," Cooper said. The Fifth Fleet has used unmanned vessels in exercises since November, he said, racking up thousands of operating hours.

Jordan's Royal Court Rejects 'Inaccurate' Claims About King Abdullah's Accounts
Amman - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Jordan's Royal Hashemite Court said the recent media reports on the bank account of King Abdullah II include inaccuracies used to defame Jordan and the King. A press statement by the Jordanian Royal Court, which Asharq Al-Awsat received a copy of, said the reports contained inaccurate, outdated and misleading information with the intent of defaming the King and Jordan. The Royal Court revealed that the total balance mentioned in several reports is inaccurate and exaggerated. The statement explained that most of the sums listed in the accounts relate to the sale of a large Airbus 340 airplane for $212 million and replacing it with a smaller, less costly Gulfstream aircraft. King Abdullah had inherited two planes from the late King Hussein, which were sold, with the resulting sum used to replace them more than once over the past 20 years, including the sale of the Airbus 340 and the purchase of the Gulfstream aircraft currently used by the monarch. "The surplus sum that resulted from replacing the large aircraft with a smaller one was used with His Majesty's private assets and personal wealth to cover the private expenses of the Hashemite family and fund various Royal initiatives over the past years."
The Royal Court revealed that the closed accounts mentioned in the reports include an account with deposits inherited from his father, the late King Hussein. As for the account established as a trust fund for the King's children, which is registered under the name of Queen Rania Al Abdullah, the funds came from the King's private wealth, and the account was entrusted to their mother, as they were minors at the time. The statement stressed that the King's private assets and wealth have always been independent of the treasury and public funds, and they are managed by the Privy Purse, a directorate at the Royal Hashemite Court for over 70 years. The Royal Court stressed that all international assistance is subject to professional audits, and their allocations are fully accounted for by the government and donors, under cooperation agreements subject to the highest standards of governance and oversight.
The Court warned that any allegations that link the funds in these accounts to public funds or foreign assistance are defamatory, baseless, and deliberate attempts to distort facts and systematically target Jordan's reputation, as well as King Abdullah's credibility, especially coming after similar reports published last year that were based on leaks from previous years.

Arab Support for Egypt, Sudan Following Ethiopia’s Unilateral GERD Operation
Cairo - Mohammed Ado Hassanein/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
The Arab Parliament expressed support for Egypt and Sudan after Ethiopia announced its unilateral operation of the mega-dam it is building on the Blue Nile. The Parliament slammed Addis Ababa’s “rejected” move, noting that it represents a “serious violation of the water rights” of the two downstream countries. Ethiopia started on Sunday its “limited” operation of 13 turbines of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, as a first stage for electricity production. But Cairo denounced the start-up, saying Addis Ababa was “persisting in its violations” of a 2015 Declaration of Principles, which prohibits any of the parties from taking unilateral actions in the use of the river’s water. According to official media, only one of 13 turbines is currently operational, with a capacity of 375 megawatts. Arab Parliament Speaker Adel al-Asoumi denounced in a statement on Monday Ethiopia’s announcement.
He said Addis Ababa’s step is a clear violation of international and bilateral agreements regulating the use of the Nile River's waters as an international river. “These include Ethiopia’s pledges signed by its Prime Minister in the 2015 declaration of principles agreement,” he said.
He urged Addis Ababa to refrain from unilateral actions that would harm the water interests of the downstream countries. “These actions will not change the legal and historical nature of the internationally recognized water quotas for Egypt and Sudan,” added Asoumi. He reiterated the Parliament’s firm stance on reaching a legally binding agreement to fill and operate the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without harming Egypt and Sudan’s water interests. He underscored the Parliament’s support to the measures both countries would take to preserve their water rights as an “integral part of Arab national security.”GERD is set to be the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa but has been a center of dispute with downstream nations Egypt and Sudan ever since work first began in 2011. The last round of talks between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in Kinshasa ended in early April 2021 with no progress made. Ethiopia refused then to involve the quartet in GERD talks and renewed its commitment to the AU-led talks. In mid-September, the UN Security Council called on the three countries to resume negotiations under the auspices of the AU, stressing the need to reach a “binding agreement on the filling and operation of the dam within a reasonable timetable. The $4.2-billion project is ultimately expected to produce more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, more than doubling Ethiopia's electricity output.

Queen Elizabeth Still Has Mild COVID Symptoms, Cancels Online Meetings
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
Queen Elizabeth II canceled scheduled online engagements on Tuesday because she is still experiencing mild cold-like symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19, Buckingham Palace said. The 95-year-old monarch “has decided not to undertake her planned virtual engagements today, but will continue with light duties," a palace spokesman said. Officials confirmed Sunday that the queen tested positive for COVID-19. The diagnosis prompted concern and get-well wishes from across Britain’s political spectrum for the queen, the country's longest-reigning monarch, The Associated Press said. The palace said Sunday that Elizabeth, who has been fully vaccinated and had a booster shot, would continue with “light” duties at Windsor Castle over the coming week. The queen reached the milestone of 70 years on the throne on Feb. 6, the anniversary of the 1952 death of her father, King George VI. She will turn 96 on April 21. Both the queen’s eldest son, Prince Charles, 73, and her 74-year-old daughter-in-law, Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall, contracted COVID-19 earlier this month. Charles has since returned to work. There are also thought to have been several recent virus cases among the staff at Windsor Castle, where the queen is staying. Elizabeth spent a night in a London hospital for unspecified tests in October and until recently had been under doctors' orders to rest and only undertake light duties. She canceled various major engagements late last year but returned this month to public duties, and has held audiences both virtually and in person with diplomats, politicians and senior military officers.

Tunisia's Free Destourian Nominates Moussi for Presidential Elections
Tunis - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 22 February, 2022
The party announced a "general list" that included its stance on the current national affairs, criticizing the policies of President Kais Saied after imposing exceptional measures since July 25. Moussi chaired the party's legislative bloc before Saied's froze the parliament. She is one of the most vocal opponents of the Islamic Ennahda Movement, the conservative Dignity Coalition, and Islamic organizations. She was a member of the dissolved Democratic Constitutional Rally, which ruled Tunisia before the 2011 revolution. Her opponents accuse Moussi of being a front for the former regime.
Saeid, who was elected by a vast majority in 2019, presented a political roadmap, including a national electronic consultation, a popular referendum on political reforms, and the organization of parliamentary elections at the end of this year. The Free Destourian condemned the President for dismantling institutions claiming exceptional measures to facilitate the implementation of his political project. Moussi announced that the party would hold a sit-in on March 13, declaring their support for the state and aiming to save the people from the dangers of social tension, financial collapse, and poverty. During a press conference held to announce the results of the expanded central committee of the party, Moussi said that the latter would force the President to respect the will of the Tunisian people through protests. Moussa declared that her party would not recognize the consultation results that were executed over the electronic platform. The party will sue the platform's supervisors for squandering public funds, violating regulations, harming the administration, and deceiving the will of citizens, according to Moussi. The Free Destourian refuses to change the rules of the democratic process. She stressed that any texts issued by the President are illegal, based on the requirements of Presidential order 117 concerning the political system.

Policy of 'diversification' allows Egypt not to be hostage to US pressures, preserve initiative
AP/The Arab Weekly/February 22/2022
Egypt has kicked off, Monday, joint Mediterranean air and naval drills with France, one of its biggest arms suppliers. The two countries have already held several naval exercises in the Red Sea and the Mediterranean involving Egyptian and French frigates. Last year, Egypt signed a deal with France’s Dassault Aviation to purchase 30 Rafale fighter jets. The exercise points to the deepening ties with France among many other European nations which carry far-reaching implications. Maged Mandour a political analyst and columnist for Open Democracy, says that the "growing alliance between Cairo and Paris is resulting in significant foreign policy coordination and in political and economic repercussions in both Egypt and France." In its regional and international deals, the Egyptian government of Abdul Fattah al-Sisi keeps its eyes on the crucial but wavering relationship with Washington. The Joe Biden administration announced at the end of January a cut of $130 million in military aid to Egypt over human rights concerns. When General Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, visited Cairo earlier this month, he stressed that the cut did not represent a large part of the $1.3 billion allocated by the United States for Egypt.
“Compared to the amount of other money that’s in play, it’s a very small amount. But I think it’s intended to be a signal,” McKenzie said. There was an element of truth in that. Washington’s military assistance to Cairo remains one of its largest programmes in the world. This is despite all the flack that Sisi's Egypt has been getting from members of Congress and human rights NGOs in Washington under a Democratic administration that had vowed to put human rights and democracy among its top considerations when determining the course of its relations in the Middle East. A cautious Egypt has been wary however of putting all its eggs in the same basket. It is diversifying its ties by turning to Europe and Russia as well as its Arab Gulf allies while remaining careful not to alienate the United States. Egypt’s arms imports from Russia, France, Germany and Italy have surged, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, even though any major arms purchase from Russia could trigger US sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, known as CAATSA.
Egypt's agile moves in the region, as illustrated by its mediation in Gaza between Hamas and Israel, have convinced the US administration of the strategic role that Cairo could still play in support of Washington's policies in the Middle East. But Sisi's pursuit of stronger political, economic and military ties with Arab allies has nonetheless weakened US influence in Egypt's decision-making. The diversification of alliances has not been limited to the Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular, but has extended to many other countries. Cairo has used a great deal of diplomacy to make sure arms deals and financial aid packages have not come with too many strings attached nor sparked additional US pressures.
Cautious policy
All along, Egypt has followed a cautious policy in pursuit of its interests. Member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, Ambassador Rakha Ahmed Hassan, said that "the diplomatic experience has shown Cairo that taking sides does not guarantee positive results." He added that there is a political awareness that crises between major powers sooner or later come to an end and their effects strain relations only with those who had taken sides in the crises. He further told The Arab Weekly, that "the nature of international relations is based on economic interests, technology transfer, joint investments and arms deals. These considerations override political ideologies, which is in tune with the Egyptian approach. Cairo seeks to promote the country's interests based on the common ground with others."
Rakha pointed out that Cairo's avoidance of contentious issues that could strain its relations with the United States, China, Russia or European countries, gives its greater ability to balance those ties. This has allowed it to keep human rights concerns at bay in dealing with the West, even if occasionally, such concerns are timidly raised at meetings and press conferences. Cairo has used arms deals to build closer relations with European nations, especially with France, Germany and Italy, exerting indirect pressure on the United States to keep "solid" military cooperation ties with Egypt that include huge lucrative contracts. The Egyptian regime has also used its big spending on infrastructure projects to build closer alliances with Europe. It signed with German company Siemens a memorandum of understanding to build a high-speed train worth $23 billion. In the oil and gas sector, the Italian company Eni invested in Egypt a total of $13 billion between 2015 and 2019, and new deals recently announced included the participation of American companies. International affairs experts in Cairo believe Egypt is likely to continue facing criticism from both the US and Europe for its human rights record. But Egyptian decision-makers believe the country's policy of diversification will allow it to keep rights-related pressures at a manageable level. With the diversification of partners comes also a diversification of the cooperation agendas based on common interests with nations of the region and the world, add the experts.

Saudi Arabia wants fair Palestinian settlement before overture to Israel
AP/The Arab Weekly/February 22/2022
Saudi Foreign Minister said on Monday that any rapprochement with Israel will come after reaching a just solution to the Palestinian claims. “The priority now is to find an arrangement so that Israelis and Palestinians can sit together and have a peace process that can be worked on,” Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said in an interview with Israeli newspaper Maariv, on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. “The integration of Israel in the region will be a huge benefit, not only for Israel itself but for the entire region,” he added. The top Saudi diplomat said the lack of a political horizon for peace between the Palestinians and the Israelis would “strengthen the most extreme voices” in the region. There was no confirmation from the Saudi authorities of the interview with the Israeli daily. Israel signed the Abraham Accords in September 2020 with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, later adding Morocco and Sudan to the agreement. The administration of US President Joe Biden and the US Congress are reportedly working on expanding the circle of the Abraham Accords to include other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly stressed its commitment to the Arab parameters for peace with Israel, expressed in the 2002 Saudi-proposed Arab Initiative, which calls for normalising relations with Tel Aviv in return for withdrawal from territories occupied in 1967. But mutual concern over Iran has gradually brought Israel and Gulf countries closer in terms of their assessment of regional threats.
Israel occupied East Jerusalem during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and annexed the entire city in 1980, in a move that has never been recognised by the international community. Observers indicated that Saudi Arabia does not wish to find itself, isolated in light of international pressure and signs of Biden administration’s openness on Iran. The kingdom also fears that anti-Saudi lobbies in the US and elsewhere will take advantage of the tense political climate to start rattling chains related to human rights and the war in Yemen, with the aim of escalating pressure on Riyadh.
Openness to Israel would relieve these pressures within the United States, as well as cool down the media campaigns and the dispute with Israel itself. Such a tactical move has been prefigured by the kingdom's moves to heal its rifts with Turkey and so halt Ankara's anti-Riyadh campaign.
Saudi Arabia insists that settling the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a precondition for formal normalisation of relations with Israel. This position is of great importance regionally and internationally, given that the kingdom presents itself as the leader of the Islamic world. Riyadh has always been very sensitive to any announcement of rapprochement with Israel, for fear of reactions and criticism, including at home in Saudi Arabia, from some members of the ruling family and from within its conservative society. Earlier in 2021, Saudi Arabia had announced its understanding of the steps taken by the UAE and Bahrain over normalisation with Israel and maintained that it considered them an internal matter. However, Gulf experts said that the Emirati and Bahraini moves would not have been possible without a green light from Riyadh. Riyadh, itself, has been very cautious about its own steps in this area because of the sensitivity and complexity of the Saudi position and its connection with the kingdom’s status in the Islamic and Arab worlds. In an interview with the Riyadh-based Arab News daily, Abdallah al-Mouallimi, Saudi Arabia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nation, said last December that Riyadh is committed to the Arab Initiative for peace. This calls for the end of the Israeli occupation of all Arab territories occupied in 1967 and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, in return for normalising ties with Israel. “The official and latest Saudi position is that we are prepared to normalise relations with Israel as soon as Israel implements the elements of the Saudi peace initiative that was presented in 2002,” Mouallimi said. He added that, once it had acted on the initiative, Israel would have recognition “not only from Saudi Arabia but the entire Muslim world, all 57 countries of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.”“Time does not change right or wrong. The Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories is wrong, no matter how long it lasts,” the diplomat said.

Dbeibah seeks power at any cost
AP/The Arab Weekly/February 22/2022
Interim Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah seeks to drive a wedge between Libyans on more than one front. He is seeking to pit the people of the city of Misrata against armed groups in the Libyan West. In his struggle to stay in power, he is trying to divide all Libyans in all parts of the country between those who back him and those who stand with Prime Minister-designate Fathi Bashagha. Suddenly, Dbeibah has made himself “the leader of the February 17 Revolution,” the defender of the principles, goals and slogans of that revolution in the face of its enemies, those conspirators and icons of the counter-revolution. He has become the patron of the revolutionaries, including the armed groups, the so-called thuwar, referred to by the international community as militias and terrorist groups.
His clear goal is to win the loyalties of the militias and to ensure their armed entrenchment against Bashagha, who is now fully engaged in consultations to form a new government. Dbeibah has the power of money, which he uses to serve his interests, either to gain access to power or to keep it. He has the authority to dispose of the state’s budget and spend billions to achieve a level of popularity in a wretched society suffering from extreme poverty even if the country swims in a lake of oil and gas.
Through promises and deal-making, he and those standing behind him are betting on his ability to stay in office for many more years. He had pledged to the Libyan Political Forum and to the House of Representatives that he would not run for president in the last December ballot. At the time, he only wanted to secure the premiership, as indeed happened. Then, he reneged on that pledge and diverted all the state's resources to finance his early presidential election campaign. He hoped to achieve an overwhelming popularity that would lift him up to the highest executive office.
Today, Dbeibah punctuates promises with threats. He is promising to guarantee the organisation of the elections this June. He again pledges not to run. However, based on his past record, no one takes that pledge seriously. At the same time, he vows not to give up his position as premier. That means he is ready to use all means to attain his goal, including to shield himself behind militias as he transitions from Dbeibah, the civil engineer, businessman and head of the Government of National Unity to Dbeibah, the wealthy man who provides cover to armed militias and seeks to divide the country in his struggle to hold on to power.
Today, Dbeibah is waging an open war against the House of Representatives, as he has openly waged war against Libyan National Army (LNA) leadership and encouraged hostility towards the symbols of the Gadhafi regime, especially after Seif al-Islam Gadhafi’s declared his presidential candidacy. Against the pro-Bashagha segments of society, which call on him to listen to the voice of reason, Dbeibah seems to have edged closer to the extremist groups which see the arrival of Bashagha to the premiership as a painful blow to their interests. The extremists fret over the prospect of an agreement between the next government and the LNA leadership and between the parliament and the State Council, as a first step towards national reconciliation and the unification of the armed forces.
Libya could witness damaging developments while Dbeibah clings to power. Certainly, were he to quit, the interim premier will first insist on guarantees. During his rule, he has squandered billions of dinars. His links to money and business moguls have sparked much controversy. He has exploited the means of the state and its institutions for the benefit of family members, friends and partners. There are now ministers and members of his staff who are in pre-trial detention on suspicion of corruption involving decisions-makers. There are also disputes about who should bear criminal responsibility for their misdeeds.
When Dbeibah originally announced his intent to run for prime minister in the Political Dialogue Forum there were strong suspicions of bribery, the buying of votes and a local UN enquiry, the result of which has never been released. He aspires to an indefinite stay in power through deals with financial, economic, regional and regional stakeholders as well as international powers. He might almost have achieved what he wanted in the presidential elections had it not been for the tremor caused by the emergence of Seif al-Islam as a candidate and the divided views this prompted among the international community.
Dbeibah will use all available means to cling to office. The most serious concern this raises is that in pursuit of that goal, he may depend on social strife and conflicts between militias to serve his purposes.
Squandering public money, on the other hand, has become the new normal, especially when presented as emergency spending. It hardly raises an eyebrow anymore.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 21-22/2022
Has Iran Bagged a Victory?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 22/2022
After a year of negotiations and five years of sanctions, Iran and the West are on the cusp of announcing the revival of their comprehensive nuclear deal. I imagine the announcement will be accompanied by a large-scale Iranian “propaganda” portraying Tehran as the victor.
Surely, Iran is a victor in some narrow sense, since the US has conceded its additional terms. However, many of Tehran’s demands have not been met, including compensation for years’ worth of economic sanctions when the deal was frozen. Let us recall that Tehran’s intransigence and obsession with maintaining its image cost the country three quarters of its income from exports during those years. “Our income has fallen from $100 billion to $8 billion,” says Iran’s former Vice-President Eshaq Jahangiri.
Iran would have been an oil and gas superpower if not for the world’s apprehension to strike dealings with it on the long term. The country has enough proven reserves of gas –twice as much as Qatar and thrice as much as the US– to make it rank second in the world. It also ranks third worldwide in oil reserves, preceded only by Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Yet only a fraction of this tremendous wealth has been exploited since the current regime took power four decades ago.
This shows that the problem has always lain in Tehran’s political system, which has turned Iran into a shunned country in the international sphere; not to mention that most of Iran’s income is spent on military, expansionist projects. While most states around the world exert their best efforts to improve their economic capabilities, Iran sleeps on an enormous wealth that merely requires respect for the rules of international relations and increased domestic development efforts to be fully unlocked.
Once we understand the drivers and motives of decisionmaking in Iran, we can predict what path Tehran will take once the sanctions are lifted. Since maintaining its global image, especially among its followers, is more important to the regime than resolving its crises, we are sure to see extensive post-deal propaganda by Tehran in a bid to persuade its supporters that it has won the war.
It may also go for a regional show of force after the deal is signed, probably taking Iraq as its first victim, aided by its security agencies and proxy armed militias in the country. In fact, it has already taken several steps in the direction of imposing its authority in the neighboring country, suspending Hoshyar Zebari’s presidential bid via the Supreme Federal Court; using its devised “blocking third” veto system, which it had previously installed in Lebanon, to control the parliament following its loss in the latest election; and stoking the fire of the oil income conflict with the Kurdish component. Without deploying a single soldier, Iran is working to hold Baghdad in a tight grip, and its efforts may succeed once the anticipated deal is signed. However, despite it seeming like a piece of cake to Tehran today, controlling Iraq will likely be flavored with a secret toxic ingredient.
The revival of the nuclear deal will reopen many closed doors to Iran’s regime. Its ships will sail without having to hide, bribe intermediaries, or make tariff cuts. As such, Tehran will have a surplus of resources and consequently more room to fund regional conflicts, which did not abate even when Iran was hit with harsh economic sanctions and restrictions. The exaggerating and dishonest Iranian propaganda machine will surely try to embellish the regime’s image after the deal is signed. However, despite possibly winning this round, Iran is no longer the power it once was, with a wide support base across the Arab world and beyond. This will be the topic of my next article.

What Is the IRGC If Not a Terror Organization?
Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 22/2022
Based on the statements by Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi and Qatar’s Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on Monday, it seems that a deal is imminent between Iran and the United States.
The issues pointed out by Raisi as necessary for the deal won’t be easy for US President Joe Biden to deal with. But with Qatar mediating and the need that both sides have for this deal, one can somewhat understand why the temporary two-year deal that has been talked about is now possible.
A two-year agreement means a deal that will last until the end of Biden’s first term. In other words, Iran will have to abide by more serious commitments while it awaits the fate of the US presidential elections in 2024 and see if the next president will abide by the deal. At the same time, this temporary or short-term deal will mean that, at least for now, Iran’s nuclear program will be restricted as desired by Biden.
Raisi took with himself a high-level delegation, including ministers of foreign affairs, oil, roads and urban planning, industry, mines and trade, and, with all the talk about important multilateral meetings, tried to show that Iran has regular relations with countries of the region and doesn’t need a nuclear deal. By adopting this approach, Iran wants to show that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries back the nuclear deal and thereby increasing the pressure on the US to accept Iran’s demands.
But Qatar doesn’t represent the GCC. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have a different opinion about the deal and about the Iranian approach in the region.
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Monday, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan expressed hope that Iran could seriously try to adopt a new approach in the region.
The planning for a new round of direct Iran-Saudi talks is happening while on Monday night, 16 civilians were injured when a Houthi drone that was attacking King Abdullah’s airport in Jazan was shot down.
Houthi militias are linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and the IRGC’s behavior is terroristic and so is the behavior of Iran: It supports a militia that openly disrupts security and calm of the regional countries and threatens their national security. The Iranian regime shows no responsibility or commitment toward its own citizens; how could it be committed to other pledges and deals?
The Raisi administration has now asked for the removal of the IRGC from the Foreign Terrorist Organization list of the State Department. Logically, this isn’t possible. But Biden already de-listed the Houthis in February 2021 and refuses to accept the demand of Republican Senators, such as Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton, to designate Taliban as a terrorist organization following the fall of Kabul. But it’s unlikely that Biden could politically stand up to the US Congress in delisting the IRGC.
The coming deal with Iran is a way for leftist Democrats of the US to save face and for the Iranian regime to find an escape from the dead-end of its economic and financial crisis. What can bring down the regime ruling over Iran is not a military confrontation but a rebellion by a hungry people, 60 percent of whom are dealing with poverty, and protests by a nation. A half-formed agreement with the West will give the regime a breathing space to regroup its forces and plan to counter and suppress the protests of the Iranian people. I don’t support the sanctions that have brought hunger on the Iranian people but the Biden administration had an opportunity to work with US’s regional partners to bring about a deal that would provide for the rights of the Iranian people while also restrict the regime’s nuclear program.
Towards Iran and its people, Biden would do what he did with the terrorists of Taliban when he accommodated them and swiftly gave up Afghanistan to them, destroying the lives and hopes of millions of people who believed in democracy and human rights.
With the deal, the US can limit the regime’s nuclear program but it won’t be able to restrict the IRGC and the oppressive regime, in either Iran or the region. Eighty million Iranians are hostages of the Iranian regime but when a rescue plane will go to Tehran, it will only take four Iranians with dual citizenship in return for cash that will only reduce the economic pressure for a short while. What will come next? What will follow will probably be similar to the policy of Biden administration that rescued 200,000 from Afghanistan, only to shamelessly leave 30 million to the cave-dwelling terrorists of Taliban.
US troubles won’t be solved with a half-baked deal that Biden and the Democrats cook up with the Iranian regime or with their hasty exit from Afghanistan. The livelihood problems of the Iranian people won’t be solved with this half-baked and shaky agreement either.
Speaking on Iran’s big demand in the Vienna talks, Israel’s foreign minister Yair Lapid had a good point: “If the IRGC isn’t a terrorist organization, what are they – a folk-dancing troupe? The world cannot agree to these audacious conditions. It cannot allow tens of billions of dollars to flow to Iran nor allow it to continue to spread terror around the world.”

This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders.
Thomas L. Friedman/The New York Times/February 22/2022
When a major conflict like Ukraine breaks out, journalists always ask themselves: “Where should I station myself?” Kyiv? Moscow? Munich? Washington? In this case, my answer is none of these. The only place to be for understanding this war is inside Russian President Vladimir Putin’s head. Putin is the most powerful, unchecked Russian leader since Stalin, and the timing of this war is a product of his ambitions, strategies and grievances. But, with all of that said, America is not entirely innocent of fueling his fires.
How so? Putin views Ukraine’s ambition to leave his sphere of influence as both a strategic loss and a personal and national humiliation. In his speech on Monday, Putin literally said Ukraine has no claim to independence, but is instead an integral part of Russia — its people are “connected with us by blood, family ties.” Which is why Putin’s onslaught against Ukraine’s freely elected government feels like the geopolitical equivalent of an honor killing.
Putin is basically saying to Ukrainians (more of whom want to join the European Union than NATO): “You fell in love with the wrong guy. You will not run off with either NATO or the E.U. And if I have to club your government to death and drag you back home, I will.”
This is ugly, visceral stuff. Nevertheless, there is a back story here that is relevant. Putin’s attachment to Ukraine is not just mystical nationalism.
In my view, there are two huge logs fueling this fire. The first log was the ill-considered decision by the US in the 1990s to expand NATO after — indeed, despite — the collapse of the Soviet Union.
And the second and far bigger log is how Putin cynically exploited NATO’s expansion closer to Russia’s borders to rally Russians to his side to cover for his huge failure of leadership. Putin has utterly failed to build Russia into an economic model that would actually attract its neighbors, not repel them, and inspire its most talented people to want to stay, not get in line for visas to the West.
We need to look at both of these logs. Most Americans paid scant attention to the expansion of NATO in the late 1990s and early 2000s to countries in Eastern and Central Europe like Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, all of which had been part of the former Soviet Union or its sphere of influence. It was no mystery why these nations would want to be part of an alliance that obligated the US to come to their defense in the event of an attack by Russia, the rump successor to the Soviet Union.
The mystery was why the US — which throughout the Cold War dreamed that Russia might one day have a democratic revolution and a leader who, however haltingly, would try to make Russia into a democracy and join the West — would choose to quickly push NATO into Russia’s face when it was weak.
A very small group of officials and policy wonks at that time, myself included, asked that same question, but we were drowned out.
The most important, and sole, voice at the top of the Clinton administration asking that question was none other than the defense secretary, Bill Perry. Recalling that moment years later, Perry in 2016 told a conference of The Guardian newspaper:
“In the last few years, most of the blame can be pointed at the actions that Putin has taken. But in the early years I have to say that the United States deserves much of the blame. Our first action that really set us off in a bad direction was when NATO started to expand, bringing in Eastern European nations, some of them bordering Russia.
“At that time, we were working closely with Russia and they were beginning to get used to the idea that NATO could be a friend rather than an enemy … but they were very uncomfortable about having NATO right up on their border and they made a strong appeal for us not to go ahead with that.”
On May 2, 1998, immediately after the Senate ratified NATO expansion, I called George Kennan, the architect of America’s successful containment of the Soviet Union. Having joined the State Department in 1926 and served as US ambassador to Moscow in 1952, Kennan was arguably America’s greatest expert on Russia. Though 94 at the time and frail of voice, he was sharp of mind when I asked for his opinion of NATO expansion.
I am going to share Kennan’s whole answer:
“I think it is the beginning of a new cold war. I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else. This expansion would make the founding fathers of this country turn over in their graves.
“We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way. [NATO expansion] was simply a lighthearted action by a Senate that has no real interest in foreign affairs. What bothers me is how superficial and ill informed the whole Senate debate was. I was particularly bothered by the references to Russia as a country dying to attack Western Europe.
“Don’t people understand? Our differences in the Cold War were with the Soviet Communist regime. And now we are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime. And Russia’s democracy is as far advanced, if not farther, as any of these countries we’ve just signed up to defend from Russia. Of course there is going to be a bad reaction from Russia, and then [the NATO expanders] will say that we always told you that is how the Russians are — but this is just wrong.”
It’s EXACTLY what has happened.
To be sure, post-Cold War Russia evolving into a liberal system — the way post-World War II Germany and Japan did — was hardly a sure thing. Indeed, given Russia’s scant experience with democracy, it was a long shot. But some of us then thought it was a long shot worth trying, because even a less-than-democratic Russia — if it had been included rather than excluded from a new European security order — might have had much less interest or incentive in menacing its neighbors.
Of course, none of this justifies Putin’s dismemberment of Ukraine. During Putin’s first two terms as president — from 2000 to 2008 — he occasionally grumbled about NATO expansion but did little more. Oil prices were high then, as was Putin’s domestic popularity, because he was presiding over the soaring growth of Russian personal incomes after a decade of painful restructuring and impoverishment following the collapse of communism.
But across the last decade, as Russia’s economy stagnated, Putin either had to go for deeper economic reforms, which might have weakened his top-down control, or double down on his corrupt crony capitalist kleptocracy. He chose the latter, explained Leon Aron, a Russia expert at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of “Yeltsin: A Revolutionary Life,” who is now writing a book about the future of Putin’s Russia. And to both cover and distract from that choice, Putin shifted the basis of his popularity from “being the distributor of Russia’s newfound wealth and an economic reformer to the defender of the motherland,” Aron said.
And right when Putin opted for domestic political reasons to become a nationalist avenger and a permanent “wartime president,” as Aron put it, what was waiting there for him to grasp onto was the most emotive threat to rally the Russian people behind him: “The low-hanging fruit of NATO expansion.”
And he has dined out on it ever since, even though he knows that NATO has no plans to expand to include Ukraine.
Countries and leaders usually react to humiliation in one of two ways — aggression or introspection. After China experienced what it called a “century of humiliation” from the West, it responded under Deng Xiaoping by essentially saying: “We’ll show you. We’ll beat you at your own game.”
When Putin felt humiliated by the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the expansion of NATO, he responded: “I’ll show you. I’ll beat up Ukraine.”
Yes, it’s all more complicated than that, but my point is this: This is Putin’s war. He’s a bad leader for Russia and its neighbors. But America and NATO are not just innocent bystanders in his evolution.

West is on verge of signing 'surrender pact' with Iran
Jacob Nagel/Israel Hayom/February 22/2022
The Europeans are again kowtowing to American pressure while the Russians and Chinese are wringing their hands gleefully.
Everyone involved in the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna is "releasing promos" ahead of an impending formal declaration, which will apparently entail a return to a watered-down, worse version of the original 2015 agreement despite it being clear to all that turning back the clock to the old deal isn't even possible
Despite all the warnings, it appears the American delegation headed by Robert Malley – following the resignation of three of his senior colleagues, chief among them Richard Nephew, over the extent of US concessions to the Iranians' demands – has swayed global powers to consent to an exceedingly problematic deal that will pave a certain path for Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb in the coming years.
Within the framework of the emerging deal, which will partially be based on the 2015 agreement, several fundamental problems, which Israel has highlighted on multiple occasions, have not been resolved. It lacks any mechanisms that will force the Iranians to engage in additional negotiations over a "longer-term, stronger" deal before the new deal expires, as US President Joe Biden promised would be inserted. A short-term deal in which all restrictions imposed on Iran's nuclear program will soon expire as per the original deal's outline, which was solely predicated on reciprocity, and without any clear stipulation agreed upon by all sides about what will happen if a new deal isn't reached, isn't worth the paper on which it is written.
The deal does not block all the avenues that can lead to a nuclear weapon, doesn't address the holes that were identified in the previous agreement, and doesn't even give global powers any actual ability to activate the snapback mechanism that allowed them at the time to reimpose sanctions (according to the original deal, this mechanism is set to expire in 2025).
The last point of contention that seemingly may or may not be addressed in the new deal is the future of the International Atomic Agency's ongoing investigations. Some of these investigations were made possible by the original deal's invasive oversight mechanisms, and some pertain to the open questions from the investigation into the possible military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program, which was mistakenly closed in the past and exposed by Israel's revelation of Iran's nuclear archives. Deficient attention to this important issue will diminish the IAEA's already lowly status even further and put into question the very need for its existence. It appears the sides are on the verge of closing the uranium investigation and perhaps will also formulate a clever conclusion to the other matters, or simply just concede altogether on those as well.
It's important to recall how the late former director-general of the IAEA, Yukiya Amano, responded when asked about his agency's enforcement of "Section T," the part of the original deal that pertained to monitoring activities related to the development of weapons systems. It was clear by his statements that behind the scenes the Russians and Americans had agreed in advance that there was no intention or ability to enforce this section and that the IAEA was also incapable. It's certainly possible that secret deals of this sort are in the works this time, too.
A foolish attempt to predicate the stability of the new deal on the re-imposition of full oversight, without promising to pursue and exhaust the findings of the previous oversight regime, would simply be ridiculous.
It's also clear that despite the Iranian regime's efforts during the current negotiations to intensify attacks on US forces in Iraq and its allies in the Persian Gulf region, nothing was done to confront this aggression, including against the launch of long-range ballistic missiles with warheads weighing upward of 500 kilograms (some 1,100 pounds) for the first time in decades and in contravention of all international oversight mechanisms.
It seems that American lawmakers are unwilling to let Biden and his envoys sign this deal without warning them and mainly the Iranians of its future consequences. Two hundred Republican members of Congress published a scathing letter saying that in 2024, after the next presidential election, a Republican administration will not honor the deal and re-impose all the sanctions currently being lifted. This letter is supposed to send a message to the world that returning to business-as-usual with Iran is a precarious prospect.
What transpires in the short term, however, remains the problem. Reinstating the original deal will "whitewash" all of Iran's violations and the progress it has made with its nuclear program, and at the same time grant it hundreds of billions of dollars, allow it to rehabilitate its economy, and continue funding its terrorist proxies. A book that was published this week, co-authored by this writer and Dr. Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies about Israel's conflict in Gaza in 2021, details why the nuclear deal is dangerous and how the Iranians are behind almost every terrorist event in the Middle East and around the world. It appears the voices and pressures that were applied this week, including from the important Israeli delegation that flew to Vienna to explain how the emerging deal is problematic for all sides involved in the talks, failed to stop the Americans' mad dash to reach a deal at all costs. The "weak" Europeans are again kowtowing to American pressure and the Russians and Chinese are wringing their hands gleefully.
Instead of re-imposing maximum economic pressure and building a credible military threat, the Americans are about to sign a "deal of surrender." In any case, it's important not to take the foot off the gas even after the deal is signed, and urge that a plan be formulated for the "day after" that will exact a clear and painful price from Iran if it doesn't swiftly move toward a "stronger, longer-term" deal, which will maybe block its path to a nuclear weapon that will change the world around us.
*Brig. Gen. (Res.) Professor Jacob Nagel is a former national security adviser to the prime minister and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

A New, Weaker Iran Deal Would Pave a Path to the Nuclear Threshold...Even a new deal might give us a ‘breakout time’ of only a few months.
Andrea Stricker/The Dispatch/February 22/2022
One of the top selling points of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran was that it was supposed to keep the Tehran regime at least 12 months away from having enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. That interval is known as Iran’s “breakout time.”
The Biden administration has spent months trying to coax Tehran back into the 2015 deal—formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—but senior U.S. officials now acknowledge that they cannot secure an agreement that pushes Iran’s breakout time back up to 12 months. In talks now underway in Vienna, the Biden administration reportedly expects to negotiate a breakout time of only six to nine months. The Israeli government estimates an even shorter interval—four to six months.
What this means is that Biden cannot bring back the JCPOA. He can bring back only a weaker deal—a JCPOA-minus—with all the flaws and loopholes of the original, but with even fewer and more transient restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program. And while the United States and its partners get less, the Islamic Republic is likely to get even more sanctions relief than the first time around.
Delaying Iran’s breakout time is so important because, in the event of a crisis, the United States and its allies will need as much time as possible to persuade Iran that making a dash for nuclear weapons is too risky. While diplomacy is underway, Washington and its partners will also have to gather intelligence and—potentially—prepare for military strikes, so Tehran understands the price of defiance.
Why can’t a revised JCPOA push Iran’s breakout time back up to 12 months? The answer revolves around gas centrifuges, the machines integral to the process of enriching uranium. Iran’s centrifuges have continually grown in number and capability. The JCPOA did not stop this advance, and the Iranian regime has ruled out additional restrictions.
Prior to the JCPOA, the breakout time was a matter of weeks. The JCPOA temporarily increased Iran’s breakout time by limiting the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium and constraining the purity level of uranium the regime could produce. The deal also put temporary restrictions on the regime’s use of faster centrifuges—initially, Tehran could only use its slowest model, the IR-1. Since the clerical regime began openly violating the accord in mid-2019, its breakout time has dropped back to a similar range.
Iran was able to reduce its breakout time so quickly because the JCPOA did not force it to discard or destroy its more advanced centrifuges, it required only that they be put in storage. The machines were kept under international monitoring but remained available for rapid deployment at a time of the regime’s choosing. Moreover, Iran could likely have redeployed these machines in only a few months. As part of any new deal, the Biden administration and its European allies will reportedly permit Tehran to retain in storage—not destroy—hundreds of new advanced centrifuges it produced in violation of the JCPOA.
In 2015, the Obama administration met its goal of extending Iran’s breakout time to 12 months only by ignoring its ability to bring its advanced centrifuges out of storage. One former Obama official, Jon B. Wolfsthal, now admits that achieving a 12-month breakout time was merely a “political” goal. That point is not only clear in hindsight. In 2015, a paper I wrote with nuclear experts David Albright and Houston Wood estimated Iran’s actual breakout time under the JCPOA was closer to seven months.
Among the advanced machines Tehran stored away in 2015 and now uses for enrichment—per the latest data reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the U.N. nuclear watchdog—are 1,044 advanced IR-2m model centrifuges at the main Natanz enrichment facility and 32 IR-2m machines at the Natanz pilot plant. Iran also reactivated and is enriching uranium in about 500 IR-4 models—many more than the up to 164 stored IR-4 centrifuges that it possessed in 2015. (Higher model numbers indicate newer, faster versions.)
The JCPOA also allowed mechanical testing and computer modeling of advanced centrifuges, which negated most of the utility provided by temporary JCPOA restrictions on the manufacture and operation of advanced machines. According to the latest IAEA data, the regime is now enriching uranium in more than 200 IR-6 model centrifuges—its fastest and most reliable model—at the Natanz pilot enrichment plant. At the underground Fordow enrichment plant, the regime is enriching in nearly 200 IR-6 machines. Iran is also experimenting with enrichment in dozens of other advanced machines.
Returning to the original JCPOA would not do much to fix this problem, since many of the accord’s advanced centrifuge restrictions are poised to expire. In 2024, the deal permits Iran to begin manufacturing 200 IR-6 and 200 IR-8 centrifuges per year, and in 2027, it may install in the machines a key component called rotors, rendering them fully operational. In 2025, the JCPOA’s procurement channel, which provides international oversight over Iran’s nuclear-related imports, will end.
From 2027 to 2029, Iran may redeploy 2,500-3,500 IR-2m and/or IR-4 centrifuges. By the end of 2029, Tehran could have amassed a combined 2,400 IR-6 and IR-8 machines; a few hundred are enough to facilitate an overt or clandestine breakout. These machines will be in storage at Natanz and easily accessible if needed.
For all these reasons, it should come as no surprise that Biden’s team does not believe it can push Iran’s breakout time any higher than six or nine months. And that is likely an optimistic estimate.
Moreover, due to Iran’s efforts to restrict IAEA monitoring of its nuclear activities, the agency has not been able to monitor Iran’s manufacture of advanced centrifuges since February 2021. Absent an intensive investigation, the agency may not be able to detect whether Tehran has hidden away untold stockpiles.
By 2031, when all JCPOA restrictions on uranium enrichment terminate, the deal itself will have paved Iran’s pathway to the nuclear threshold. Thus, any “JCPOA-minus” that the Biden administration finalizes ultimately does little to address the Islamic Republic’s nuclear threat.
Under a JCPOA-minus, Tehran is likely to have already positioned itself only weeks away from making nuclear weapons material, fortified its economy with billions of dollars in sanctions relief, enhanced its missile program, and armed and funded its proxy militias. With limited time to act and likely facing uncertain information about a breakout, an American president may be forced to choose between carrying out major military strikes or letting the regime go nuclear.
Congress should not stand by as the Biden administration moves closer to lifting Iran sanctions in return for such poor terms. Instead, pursuant to the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, lawmakers should vote to prevent the administration from lifting sanctions. Even if the vote falls largely along party lines and thus fails, it will send a message that a JCPOA-minus will end, and Iran sanctions will return, under the next Republican president. Washington is about to concede, once again, a massive uranium enrichment program to the Islamic Republic, when it should be negotiating the program’s closure and removal while holistically addressing all other regime threats.
A weaker JCPOA does not offer enough nonproliferation value to sacrifice the significant amount of leverage the United States retains over Iran’s economy. Biden should resurrect this leverage and cast aside the flawed accord in favor of pressuring Tehran into more comprehensive nuclear rollback.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow focused on nonproliferation at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Follow Andrea on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. FDD is a Washington, D.C.-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

تقرير نشرته وكالة الأنباء الكاثوليكية يحكي اضطهاد النظام الإيراني للأقليات وتحديداً المسيحيين ودفهم للهجرة ومصادرة أراضيهم ونعتهم بالوباء
Iran is squeezing Christians and other minorities out of the Middle East, researcher says
Jonah McKeownCNA-Denver Newsroom/February 22/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106509/iran-is-squeezing-christians-and-other-minorities-out-of-the-middle-east-researcher-says-%d8%aa%d9%82%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d9%86%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%87-%d9%88%d9%83%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84/
A researcher with the Philos Project told journalists Tuesday that Iran is using incremental strategies to squeeze non-Muslims out of the country and in nearby states such as Iraq and Syria, and that the plight of Christians in the Middle East is “truly misunderstood” by most in the West.
Senior Research Fellow Dr. Farhad Rezaei, an Iranian Kurd, is a Christian convert who fled Iran and now teaches at York University in Canada. The Philos Project is a nonprofit group that educates about and advocates for Christians in the Near East.
Rezaei said during a Feb. 22 briefing that the narrative that only jihadists have contributed to the persecution of Christians in the Middle East is “too simplistic,” and ignores the influence of Iran-backed militias in countries like Iraq.
A native Iranian, Rezaei noted that since the country’s 1979 revolution, Islamic leaders in Iran have described adherents to minority religions such as Christianity and Judaism as “pollution,” and have taken steps to shrink the size of the Christian and Jewish communities by pushing them out of the country.
In Iraq, Rezaei noted, Iran-backed Shiite militias have carried out numerous abductions, killings, and sexual assaults in recent years. They have also seized large areas of land belonging to Christians, especially in the Nineveh Plain. In total, at least 20,000 acres of farmland have been burned, and the militias have carried out at least 75 attacks on places of worship, with at least nine instances of using a church as a military base.
However, many of these crimes have been attributed to Sunni jihadist groups such as the Islamic State, rather than to Iran, Rezaei asserted. In Northern Iraq, it’s not widely known that Iranian forces are occupying large areas, he said, with Shiite forces squeezing the native Christians out by seizing property.
A recently declassified report from the U.S. Department of Defense highlighted the continued threat of Iran-aligned militias in Iraq, and noted that officers sympathetic to Iranian or militia interests are scattered throughout the country’s security services.
When asked what the global Christian community can do in the face of this persecution, Rezaei said resources have to be poured in to rebuild Christian communities in areas where Shiite militias have tried to drive them out. In addition, he asserted, the Iranian regime has to be condemned for their actions, and leaders must be sanctioned.
*Jonah McKeown is a staff writer and assistant podcast producer for Catholic News Agency. He holds a Master’s Degree from the University of Missouri School of Journalism and in the past has worked as a writer, as a producer for public radio, and as a videographer.
https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/250451/iran-is-squeezing-christians-and-other-minorities-out-of-the-middle-east-researcher-says

Drug smuggling from Syria poses national security challenge for Jordan
Osama Al-Sharif/Arab News/February 22, 2022
Jordan is facing a unique kind of national security challenge. It finds itself embroiled in an open-ended war with a highly sophisticated network of drug traffickers on its border with Syria. The threat is not limited to Jordan, which has been described as a drug transit country, with most narcotics finding their way to the Gulf countries, but this multibillion-dollar network is now posing a political and social threat to the Hashemite kingdom.
Drug smuggling from Syria is not new. But things have begun to get out of control in recent years, especially since the eruption of the Syrian civil war in 2011. At the beginning, Jordan was apprehensive about the loss of control by the Syrian regular army of the 360-km border with the kingdom. The fear, which was later realized, was that terrorist groups would fill the vacuum left by the Syrian army. Daesh and other radical groups did move close to the Jordanian border and Amman’s forces clashed with armed infiltrators.
When Syrian government forces regained control of Deraa in 2018, Jordan responded by reopening its side of the border with Syria. That move was followed by a decision to normalize ties with the Syrian regime for political and economic reasons. Syrian ministers were received in Amman and trade delegations visited Damascus in a bid to end the regime’s isolation. King Abdullah received a call from President Bashar Assad last October and it appeared the two countries were taking confidence-building measures to normalize ties. However, late last year, the smuggling of drugs intensified from the Syrian side. So much so that the Jordanian army had to change the rules of engagement on the border, issuing a warning that a shoot-to-kill order had been issued in an attempt to stem the rising tide of infiltrations, which had become almost daily.
What is worrying for Jordan is that the traffickers have become “organized,” as the Jordanian army put it, using drones and armed personnel to accompany smugglers. While the identity of these armed personnel has not been revealed officially, it is believed that members of the Syrian army have been involved, particularly the notorious 4th Armored Division under the command of Assad’s brother Maher.
The Jordanian army has hinted that members of the Syrian army deployed on the border may be involved in facilitating the passage of smugglers originating from Syria. It talked about tens of drug manufacturing locations close to the border, which are mainly involved in the making of narcotic pills. Hashish, most probably coming from Lebanon, is also being smuggled from Syria. Since the beginning of the year, Jordan’s army has killed more than 30 smugglers and thwarted the smuggling of millions of narcotic pills.
The fact that the smugglers are either armed or being protected by armed personnel has put Jordanian soldiers in danger. That prompted the army to change the rules of engagement. The situation has become so serious that King Abdullah last week visited the Eastern Military Zone to support the troops and call on them to deal firmly with infiltration and smuggling attempts.
According to a report by the Center for Operational Analysis and Research, “Captagon exports from Syria reached a market value of at least $3.46 billion” in 2020. Moreover, Syria is now among the top drug-producing countries in the region, along with Lebanon. Saudi Arabia has warned Lebanon about repeated attempts to smuggle narcotics into the Kingdom.
The fact that the Syrian government has not responded to Jordan’s complaints about the increase in drug-smuggling activities along its border is puzzling. And the idea that the Syrian government is somehow involved in this organized network raises many questions. It is now documented that Hezbollah uses the hashish trade to raise money for its operations. It is also documented that the Lebanese militia is establishing bases in southern Syria, not far from the Jordanian border. Amman had asked Russia, whose troops are present in Deraa, for guarantees that Hezbollah would stay far away from the border.
The fact that the smugglers are either armed or being protected by armed personnel has put Jordanian soldiers in danger.
The threat to Jordan’s national security is indeed unique. It is now facing a network that is supported by some elements in the Syrian army and is using sophisticated methods to avoid interception. This war is a costly one for Jordan and it involves the entire region, including the Gulf. The task for Jordan is to locate and dismantle the local network that receives the narcotics and dispatches them to the Gulf states. But defending a long border with Syria means that Jordan needs external help. This is a war of attrition that is both costly and long.
Meanwhile, the Syrian regime has to come forward and explain why, after having taken control of the border with Jordan, that smuggling continues — and at an alarming rate. The issue has become so urgent that Jordan is left with difficult options to protect its security.
*Osama Al-Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman. Twitter: @plato010