English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 22/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Beware of the yeast of the Pharisees, that is, their hypocrisy. Nothing is covered up that will not be uncovered, and nothing secret that will not become known.
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/01-05/:”Meanwhile, when the crowd gathered in thousands, so that they trampled on one another, he began to speak first to his disciples, ‘Beware of the yeast of the Pharisees, that is, their hypocrisy. Nothing is covered up that will not be uncovered, and nothing secret that will not become known. Therefore whatever you have said in the dark will be heard in the light, and what you have whispered behind closed doors will be proclaimed from the housetops.‘I tell you, my friends, do not fear those who kill the body, and after that can do nothing more. But I will warn you whom to fear: fear him who, after he has killed, has authority to cast into hell. Yes, I tell you, fear him!”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 21-22/2022
Israel's Gantz Issues Direct Threat against Hizbullah after Drone Incursion
Parliament OKs Audit, Competition Laws, Returns Judiciary Bill to Committee
French FM to Visit Lebanon in Early March
Presidency Press Office: Allegations that President opposes implementation of “Student Dollar Law” are false”
President Aoun tackles security situation, political developments with Defense Minister
Parliament endorses Druze courts organization law
Families of students abroad rally outside UNESCO Palace
Derian tackles developments with UN’s Wronecka
Miqati Reportedly Asks Oueidat Not to Sue Salameh
Two years after pandemic, Lebanon succeeds in coping with COVID-19
Bahaa Hariri Slams Brother's 'Failed Policies', Blasts Hizbullah as 'Terrorist'
New Lawsuit Filed against Judge Looking into Bitar Recusal Request
Hassan Nasrallah Turns to Marketing/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 21-22/2022
Iran: 'Significant Progress' Seen in Vienna Nuclear Talks
Israeli Minister Sees Bilateral Talks with US to ‘Complement’ an Iran Nuclear Deal
Israel Presses US on Iran Nuclear Deal Terms
Warplane Crashes in Iran's Tabriz, 3 Dead
Israeli Authority Backs Down from Mount of Olives Park Plan
Israel Successfully Tests Naval Air Defense System
Morocco, Israel Sign Trade Deal
Iran President Makes Maiden Gulf Trip for Gas, Nuclear Talks
Expansion Project in East Jerusalem Sparks Tension between Israeli Authorities, Church Leaders
Drones evolving into terrorists' 'weapon of choice' in the region, experts warn
Putin Accuses West of Threatening Russia through Ukraine
Putin Recognizes Ukraine Rebel Regions, Angers West
Erdogan starts African tour with Congo visit
Egypt, Sudan draw sobering lessons from Ethiopia's Nile dam power
Libya’s Presidential Council rushes to support UN adviser
Canada strongly condemns Russia’s move to recognize independence of two regions within Ukraine

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 21-22/2022
Iran-US, the Self Defeating Nuclear Treaty/Charles Elias Chartouni
The Colonel and Dancing on the Edge of the Abyss/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/
Tragedy of the Syrians Continues, While the World is Focused Elsewhere/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat
Turkey’s women journalists are under attack from the state/Alexandra de Cramer/The Arab Weekly

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 21-22/2022
Israel's Gantz Issues Direct Threat against Hizbullah after Drone Incursion
Naharnet/Monday, 21 February, 2022  
Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz has accused Iran of "undermining" Lebanon’s "governance" through Hizbullah, as he issued a direct threat against the Tehran-backed group. “Just this week, in Israel we saw a number of Hizbullah attempts to violate Israel’s sovereignty. In this context, I have a clear message for Hizbullah: Their operatives are familiar with the noise made by our aircraft engines, and with their capabilities. If we are required to respond and to attack in order to defend ourselves, we will do so and we will cause great damage to the terror organization and its surroundings,” Gantz said in remarks at the Munich Security Conference. “The state of Lebanon will, unfortunately, have to be held responsible,” he added. “We will not hesitate to act anytime and anywhere necessary for the security of the State of Israel,” Gantz stressed. His remarks come a few days after the Israeli military said it fired interceptor missiles and protectively scrambled warplanes after Hizbullah sent a drone deep into Israel and managed to return it unscathed to Lebanon, drawing Israeli mock raids over the country including its capital Beirut. Hizbullah said its drone toured the targeted area for 40 minutes on a "reconnaissance mission that extended along seventy kilometers" inside the occupied territories. Minutes after the Hizbullah announcement, Israeli fighter jet flying at very low altitude buzzed the Lebanese capital Beirut and its suburbs, jolting residents, rattling windows and setting off some car alarms. The incident came just a day after Israel shot down what it said was another drone, allegedly from Hizbullah. The Israeli military said in its statement that the incursion set off air raid sirens in northern Israel, and that Iron Dome interceptors were deployed and fighter jets were patrolling the skies. Israel and Hizbullah are bitter enemies that fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israel considers the Iranian-backed Hizbullah to be its greatest immediate threat, possessing an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel. Israel has long expressed concerns that Hizbullah would obtain or develop guided missiles and attack drones. Last week, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing military drones in Lebanon, and has the technology to turn thousands of missiles in its possession into precision-guided munitions.

Parliament OKs Audit, Competition Laws, Returns Judiciary Bill to Committee
Naharnet/Monday, 21 February, 2022 
Parliament on Monday approved a host of draft laws during a legislative session at its temporary venue at the UNESCO Palace in Beirut. Among the passed bills, lawmakers adopted a draft law for extending the lifting of banking secrecy related to the forensic audit into the central bank’s accounts. Parliament also approved a draft law on commercial competition that puts an end to exclusive agencies. Legislators also passed a draft law for extrabudgetary spending pending the approval of the state budget as it returned to the Administration and Justice Committee a draft law for the judiciary’s independence so that the Higher Judicial Council can look into it. Speaker Nabih Berri meanwhile hit at Justice Minister Henri Khoury, saying: "I wish you were this defiant in the face of the Higher Judicial Council."Speaking at the beginning of the session, Speaker Nabih Berri noted that “Lebanon is the only country in the world that allows for exclusive agencies.”“Article 36 of the partnership treaty with the EU stipulates that the abolishment of exclusive agencies is obligatory,” Berri added, noting that the proposal is “not targeted against certain people without others.” “The number of registered exclusive agencies is 3,030, only 313 of which are valid and the rest are illegal. They do not renew their contracts and they do not pay fees. These agencies are still working, importing goods from abroad and preventing others from importing. The entire world has abolished exclusive agencies, except for two countries, Lebanon and the UAE, which abolished exclusive agencies 10 days ago,” the Speaker went on to say. Berri later adjourned the session after quorum was lost as al-Jadeed TV reported that parliament will not convene on Tuesday.

French FM to Visit Lebanon in Early March
Naharnet/Monday, 21 February, 2022
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian has stressed to Prime Minister Najib Miqati in their meeting in Munich that he would visit Lebanon in early March, a French diplomatic source said. “The visit’s aim is to press the government to move forward in reforms and also to seek tangible results in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund,” the source told An-Nahar newspaper in remarks published Monday. Le Drian will also inquire about the preparations for the upcoming parliamentary elections and will emphasize that the vote should be “free and transparent,” the source added.

Presidency Press Office: Allegations that President opposes implementation of “Student Dollar Law” are false”
NNA/Monday, 21 February, 2022
The Presidency Press Office clarified that the allegations claiming that the President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, opposes the implementation of the law aimed at obligating banks operating in Lebanon to disburse an amount of 10 thousand US dollars according to the official exchange rate of the dollar for Lebanese university students studying abroad for year 2020-2021 are false. The truth is that President Aoun returned the law to Parliament for reconsideration after finding constitutional and legal loopholes that must be corrected in order to fortify this law to fulfil the desired goal of its approval of enabling Lebanese university students to complete their studies abroad, which must be initially available to Lebanese university students who are pursuing their studies, whether in Lebanon or abroad, in order to preserve equality in rights and duties among all citizens without discrimination or preference. The Press Office also indicated that among the loopholes in the law is the adoption of 1515 LBPas the official exchange rate for the US dollar, at a time when the exchange rate of the US dollar is still subject to change with the presence of decisions, circulars and platforms that have led to the dispersal of the reference price of the US dollar relative to the Lebanese Lira. The law also imposed penalties on banks in casethey refrain from implementing even those that do not have deposits from students covered by the law or their guardians. How can any bank pay money to those who do not have deposits in it?
The Press Office confirmed that the meeting, which was held in Baabda Palace with the Association of Banks, was at the request of the Association and not prepared by the Director General of the Presidency of the Republic, Dr. Antoine Choucair. This meeting was devoted to reviewing the Association’s view of a law that directly concerns it. It is noteworthy that the decree calling the Parliament to hold an exceptional contract No. 8662 of January 6, 2020 included in the agenda the ratified laws that the President may request to reconsider, including the law known as the “Student Dollar Law”. -- Presidency Press Office

President Aoun tackles security situation, political developments with Defense Minister
NNA/Monday, 21 February, 2022  
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met National Defense Minister Maurice Sleem, today at the Presidential Palace. The security situation, political developments and the needs of institutions affiliated with the Ministry of Defense were deliberated in the meeting. -- Presidency Press Office

Parliament endorses Druze courts organization law
NNA/Monday, 21 February, 2022  
The Parliament has endorsed a draft law on the organization of the Druze courts, our correspondent reported on Monday.

Families of students abroad rally outside UNESCO Palace
NNA/Monday, 21 February, 2022  
Families of Lebanese students studying abroad rallied on Monday outside the UNESCO Palace where the Parliament is convening in a legislative session, and blocked the road at Tallet al-Khayat-Corniche al-Mazraa intersection.

Derian tackles developments with UN’s Wronecka
NNA/Monday, 21 February, 2022  
Grand Mufti of the Lebanese Republic, Sheikh Abdul Latif Derian, on Monday welcomed at Dar Al-Fatwa, the United Nations Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Joanna Wronecka, with whom he discussed the latest developments on the Lebanese scene.

Miqati Reportedly Asks Oueidat Not to Sue Salameh
Naharnet/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Prime Minister Najib Miqati has called State Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat and asked him not to file a lawsuit against Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, after reports said that Oueidat intends to sue him on Tuesday or Wednesday, media reports said. “Miqati has carried out a series of domestic and international contacts to rein in the Aounist onslaught against the central bank governor, warning of its dangerous repercussions on the government in particular and the country in general,” informed sources told the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper in remarks published Monday. “Ousting Salameh without a prior agreement on a successor who would be accepted domestically and internationally would hike the dollar exchange rate (on the black market) to very high levels and would torpedo all negotiation plans with the IMF. It might also delay the parliamentary elections due to the chaos of economic and social situations on the ground,” the sources quoted Miqati as saying.

Two years after pandemic, Lebanon succeeds in coping with COVID-19
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 21, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon has been able to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic well despite its “critical and difficult circumstances,” a top health official told Arab News on Monday. Lebanon “has overcome the waves of the pandemic with an acceptable rate of losses despite the collapse of official institutions,” said Dr. Abdul Rahman Bizri, an infectious disease specialist and head of the National Committee for the Administration of coronavirus vaccine. “The real partnership between the public and private sectors, especially in the voluntary field, coordination in a scientific manner, and matching the measures taken globally with the Lebanese reality led to this success,” Bizri said. Like the rest of the world, Lebanon learning to live with the virus, although the gradual abolition of precautionary measures has not yet been approved. Restaurants and cafes are crowded on weekends, especially those that allocate outdoor seating areas.
Two years have passed since the first coronavirus infection was reported in Lebanon, and the total to date is 1,043,028 cases. The total number of deaths reached 9,970 on Sunday. The daily number of new cases has fallen during the past two months from a peak of 10,000 to less than 4,000. “I believe that we will coexist with the virus and it will become like any common cold,” said Aida Nouri, nursing supervisor of the hospital department at Al-Makassed Charitable Hospital in Beirut. Nouri said that 95 percent of the deaths from the coronavirus variants registered in the hospital are among the unvaccinated. The vaccinated suffer from simple symptoms, which have recently become very mild and do not require hospitalization, said Nouri. In a report a week ago, the Lebanese Ministry of Health noted “the decrease in the percentage of positive tests and local incidence.”The report indicated the beginning of the countdown phase to the end of the wave of the omicron variant in the next two months. According to the ministry’s daily medical reports, the largest percentage of those who are currently infected with the virus are unvaccinated — 77 percent. The number of people registered to receive the vaccine has risen to more than 3,700,000 people. This means that the number of people who will receive or have received the vaccine through registration on the platform of the Ministry of Health has exceeded 68.3 percent of the population. According to Bizri, “Lebanon relies on RNA-based vaccines for its vaccination campaign because they are more desirable around the world. Lebanon receives European and American donations of these vaccines.”Bizri said they were preparing “a new phase for vaccinating children between the ages of 6 and 12 years, subject to the arrival of a batch of vaccines soon.”He said the coronavirus “has begun to turn from a pandemic to an endemic, which means that the virus that transmitted from animals to humans is adapting to live among humans, but in new forms.“It is behaving like a human virus to continue life, and this is logical in virology, as it enhances its ability to spread and evade the immune system, causing the least disease symptoms so as not to eliminate its carrier, and this is what we witnessed with omicron.”Bizri also talked about the chaos, violations and corruption that marred the vaccination process. Some fraud cases were reported in the results of PCR tests and vaccination certificates. He said: “It is related to the deterioration of the security situation in a country where there is no social security number for every citizen. “Moreover, the electronic firewalls are not robust, and the most dangerous thing is that perpetrators are not held accountable or punished. “However, despite the limited capabilities, Lebanon has realized a healthy and notable achievement.”

Bahaa Hariri Slams Brother's 'Failed Policies', Blasts Hizbullah as 'Terrorist'
Associated Press/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri's estranged older brother, Bahaa, says he hopes upcoming elections in crisis-hit Lebanon will bring about a new generation of leaders, adding that he'll do whatever he can to bring about positive change and accountability for past corruption. Bahaa Hariri also describes Lebanon's Iran-backed Hizbullah as a "terrorist" organization, calling it part of the country's "failed past." His statements to The Associated Press this week came a month after his brother Saad announced he was bowing out of politics and would not run in parliament elections scheduled for May. Hariri's bombshell decision marked the first time in three decades the powerful Sunni family is out of politics, adding uncertainty in a country grappling with a financial meltdown. Bahaa Hariri has not said whether he will step in and run for office himself. The two brothers have been at odds since Saad Hariri took over the mantle of his slain father, Rafik Hariri, after he was assassinated in a massive truck bombing in 2005. Afterward, the family chose Saad to lead, skipping over his brother, Bahaa, who is several years his senior. Bahaa, who is seen as confrontational compared to the more moderate Saad, has in recent years criticized his brother for being too soft and compromising on Hizbullah, coexisting with the Iran-backed group in successive coalition governments he led. That also cost him support from Sunni powerhouse Saudi Arabia, the rival of Iran, who came to perceive him as too lenient with Hizbullah. Mired in financial troubles and having lost Saudi Arabia's political support, the former premier announced he was leaving politics and would not run in the elections, calling on his political movement, the al-Mustaqbal Movement, to take the same step. Bahaa Hariri has not said whether he will be running himself or will only support candidates in the elections. It is also not entirely clear whether Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman sees him as the kingdom's new man in Lebanon.
The 56-year-old businessman has lived outside Lebanon for most of his life. He has been widely criticized for staying away, only parachuting in when his brother hit trouble. Many among those who revolted against the political class in 2019 are unlikely to support Bahaa Hariri, whose family was blamed for corruption in the post-civil war era. Bahaa Hariri's name was first mentioned in Lebanese media reports as a possible Saudi-backed candidate to replace his brother when Saad Hariri announced his resignation from the Saudi capital in November 2017, citing Hizbullah's dominance of Lebanon. Top Lebanese officials believe Saudi Arabia forced the resignation on Hariri at the time. The dramatic move backfired: Hariri returned home and restored his alliance with Hizbullah, losing Saudi backing. He resigned as prime minister in 2019 in response to nationwide mass protests against the country's ruling class.
"The difference between me and family members who have practiced politics in the last 15 years is very wide and I cannot accept the failed policies practiced by some, which led the country to this collapse," said Bahaa Hariri, in an indirect reference to his brother. "The people are demanding a new generation of leadership that is completely divorced from those who for the last 15 years led us to where we are today -- a failed state." Hariri, who replied Sunday to written questions sent to him by the AP from his base in London, suggested he would not work with Hizbullah. "I see Hizbullah as the failed past not the future of Lebanon. Terrorist organizations destroy countries they don't build nations," he said. "The people don't need more bullets, they need bread, jobs, electricity, and a government that serves all the people."Bahaa Hariri worked in his family's construction and development company, Saudi Oger, in Saudi Arabia. He later left the company and now runs his own real estate and investment businesses.Bahaa Hariri has recently been spending significant money in Lebanon, funding an online media platform called Sawt Beirut International and a political movement called Sawa Li Lubnan, or Together for Lebanon, casting it as a vehicle for change. Among his priorities, he said, is to have an open and transparent financial audit of the entire government and banking sector. "Where has the money gone?" he asked. "All those responsible for corruption should be brought before the courts and held accountable for their actions."

New Lawsuit Filed against Judge Looking into Bitar Recusal Request
Naharnet/Monday, 21 February, 2022
The lawyers of MPs Ali Hassan Khalil and Ghazi Zoaiter on Monday filed a new lawsuit before the Court of Cassation against the head of the court’s First Chamber, Judge Naji Eid, the National News Agency said. Eid is looking into a recusal request against Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar. NNA noted that the new lawsuit against Eid, the fourth of its kind, will force the suspension of Eid’s task. Seventeen months since the monster port blast ripped through Beirut, Bitar has been beset by numerous lawsuits, mostly filed against him by officials demanding his removal. The August 4, 2020 explosion of a shipment of ammonium nitrate fertilizer stored haphazardly in a port warehouse for years killed at least 215 people and disfigured the capital. Top political and security officials were aware of the threat posed by the stored chemicals but failed to take action. In February 2021, Fadi Sawwan, the judge initially appointed to lead the probe, was removed from the case after chasing some of the country's top brass. Bitar succeeded him, and has since faced similar hurdles amid a concerted political campaign to force his removal. Officials he had summoned on charges of negligence have filed more than a dozen lawsuits against him, forcing him to suspend his probe several times. They include several ex-ministers, two of whom were hit with arrest warrants in recent months after they failed to show up for questioning. Attempts by officials to dodge accountability have been aided by the state. Parliament has refused to lift immunity granted to lawmakers and top officials have turned down requests to interrogate top security officials. The interior ministry has also failed to implement arrest warrants issued by Bitar, further undermining his investigation. Attempts to obstruct Bitar's work have also spilled onto the streets, with the powerful Hizbullah movement staging a rally in Beirut in October demanding his removal. The protest turned Beirut’s edges into a war zone, with live fire exchanges between rival parties leaving seven dead. Hizbullah and its Amal Movement allies are spearheading efforts to replace Bitar. A judicial source said the number of lawsuits filed against Bitar now stands at around 20. Some of the judges who turned down requests to replace Bitar have since been hit with lawsuits themselves by the same officials. The lawsuits against Bitar will inevitably delay the presentation of his findings which were previously expected by 2021’s end. In a country where even high-profile assassinations and bombings go unpunished, many fear a Lebanon-led blast probe will fail to hold anyone to account. In a joint letter sent to the United Nations Human Rights Council in September, rights groups and relatives of blast victims said "flagrant political interference, immunity for high-level political officials, and lack of respect for fair trial" have rendered the Beirut blast probe incapable of delivering justice.

Hassan Nasrallah Turns to Marketing!
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Regardless of the occasion, the leader of the terrorist Hezbollah has been making frequent television appearances – even more than most Lebanese politicians - to talk about everything and nothing.
In his latest appearance, he said that "we have the ability to convert our thousands of missiles into precision missiles," adding, "a long time ago we started manufacturing drones in Lebanon, and those who want to buy should apply…"Well, the leader of the terrorist party has now shifted from the lie of the "resistance" to marketing. This is what he does best, of course, as he has been marketing lies and empty slogans since his emergence on the scene, in addition to promoting the Iranian project in Lebanon and the region. Who will buy his "drones," one of which fell into the hands of the Israelis and contained pictures of Hezbollah terrorists carrying out a silly operation? Who will buy his paper kites while Israel is hunting down his men one by one in Syria, and elsewhere?
Will Hezbollah’s clients" include ISIS and al-Qaeda? Will he offer them special discounts since some leaders of al-Qaeda are based in Iran? These questions may sound sarcastic, but the whole scene is ridiculous.
In fact, the chief of the terrorist party is publicizing the destruction of what is left of Lebanon. It is a reminder of the danger that these terrorist groups pose to our countries, and also evidence of the complete Lebanese inability to confront Hezbollah.
A diplomat tells me that Lebanon is a "complex crisis," while there are those who think otherwise. "Lebanon was important to maintain balance with Syria and its destructive roles in the region," a clever observer tells me. "Syria, as we knew it, has ended, with the destructive roles it played after the invasion of Iraq, its support for terrorism, the assassination of Rafik Hariri, and beyond." He continues: "Now, we are confronted with the Syrian card, not the Lebanese card."
It seems that the leader of the terrorist party has understood this fait accompli and is now behaving as the only decision-maker in Lebanon. His illusions have led him to sell "weapons" after smuggling and selling drugs.
Therefore, Nasrallah’s pathetic announcement of arms sales is nothing but a declaration of the total bankruptcy of Lebanon and its politicians. This is sadly the reality of the situation. It is painful, but it’s a fact.
Nasrallah’s declaration is a clear and explicit response to the Kuwaiti initiative, and evidence of the impotence of Lebanese politicians. The only hope for the country, which is now outside the circle of Arab popular interest, is for the Lebanese to revolt against the party and their failed politicians.
Any opinion poll on the Arabs’ backing for helping Lebanon, specifically in Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf, will have shocking results. Chaos in the country has reached a point where the leader of the terrorist party came out to market his paper weapons.
Nasrallah’s promotion of weapons does not differ much from ISIS’ announcement of selling oil on the day it pretended to be an Islamic emirate. We have seen many similar hallucinations in our region and their promoters have all met the same fate, from Osama bin Laden to Al-Zarqawi, Al-Baghdadi… Nasrallah is like them without any doubt.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 21-22/2022
Iran: 'Significant Progress' Seen in Vienna Nuclear Talks
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Talks in Vienna on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers have made "significant progress", Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said on Monday at a weekly press briefing. Separately, Iran's top security official Ali Shamkhani said talks with European negotiators were ongoing and would continue while negotiations with the United States were not on the agenda because they would not be the source of "any breakthroughs". Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington have been held in Vienna since April amid fears about Tehran’s nuclear advances, seen by Western powers as irreversible unless agreement is struck soon. Reuters quoted Khatibzadeh as saying that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" in the Vienna talks. Reuters reported last week that a US-Iranian deal is taking shape in Vienna after months of indirect talks to revive the nuclear pact, which Washington abandoned in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump. The draft text of the agreement also alluded to other issues, including unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian funds in South Korean banks, and the release of Western prisoners held in Iran.
Iran is ready to swap prisoners with the United States, Iran's foreign minister said on Saturday, adding that talks to revive the nuclear deal could succeed "at the earliest possible time" if the United States made the necessary political decisions. The 2015 deal between Iran and major powers limited Iran’s enrichment of uranium to make it harder for Tehran to develop material for nuclear weapons, in return for a lifting of international sanctions against Tehran. Iran has violated some of the deal's nuclear limits since the United States withdrew and reimposed sanctions under Trump.

Israeli Minister Sees Bilateral Talks with US to ‘Complement’ an Iran Nuclear Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Israel will address its misgivings about an emerging new Iran nuclear deal in future bilateral arrangements with the United States, an Israeli official said on Monday. Israel, which is not a party to nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers in Vienna, has voiced concern that they could produce a revived deal that "create(s) a more violent, more volatile Middle East". Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli, a member of Israel's decision-making security cabinet, said that as a center-left opposition lawmaker in 2015 she had supported the then-nuclear deal with Iran - which the Trump administration later withdrew from. But, she said, "this (emerging) deal is much shorter, with many more sunsets, with many, many more - I would say - bad opportunities, cracks. And yes, it's very, very problematic". "So we are doing whatever we can to make it as best as possible," Michaeli, speaking in English, told the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations in Jerusalem. "We will have to work on a complementary agreement between Israel and the US" She did not elaborate. Israeli leaders have previously asserted that their country would not be bound by any nuclear deal and could take unilateral military action against their arch-foe if they believed it was required to deny it nuclear weapons. Iran denies seeking such weapons.

Israel Presses US on Iran Nuclear Deal Terms
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Israel is pressing the United States about the terms of an emerging Iranian nuclear deal, Israeli officials said on Monday, raising the prospect of a bilateral day-after agreement with Washington to address their worries. While not a party to the nuclear negotiations between Iran and world powers in Vienna, Israel has conferred with the US administration in hope of wielding more clout over any revival of a 2015 deal with Tehran that was reached over its objections. The United States under then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the original deal in 2018, with Israel's encouragement. Diplomats told Reuters last week that a new deal was taking shape. "We were unhappy with the deal to begin with...and of course we are more unhappy with (the emerging) deal," Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid told US-Jewish leaders. "But there is a dialogue with the American administration about several issues that are surrounding this agreement." Among these, he said, was a demand by Tehran for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps to be removed from the US terrorism watchlist. Israel's message, Lapid said, was: "This is just wrong. Don't do that." Iran and US President Joe Biden's administration have not confirmed such a demand. Lapid said Israel and the United States were also discussing "other ways" - which he did not detail - of preventing Iran from making enough progress in projects like uranium enrichment to reach the threshold of capability to develop a nuclear bomb. Addressing the Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations separately, Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli - like Lapid a member of Israel's decision-making security cabinet - looked to post-deal talks with Washington. "We will have to work on a complementary agreement between Israel and the US," she said, without elaborating. Israel says it will not be bound by any deal and could eventually take unilateral action against Iranian nuclear sites. "There is a point at which we are going to tell the Americans (that) we have the freedom to act on Israel's security the way we understand," she said. "And it might have some consequences and it might have some price tags attached to it."

Warplane Crashes in Iran's Tabriz, 3 Dead
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
A fighter jet has crashed in northwest Iran and killed two pilots and a civilian, the country's state-run news agency reported Monday. IRNA said the F-5 fighter crashed into a stadium in a residential area of Tabriz and two pilots and a citizen were killed. Authorities are investigating the disaster, the report said. Iran’s air force has an assortment of US-made military aircraft purchased before the 1979 revolution. It also has Russian-made MiG and Sukhoi planes. Decades of Western sanctions have made it hard to maintain the aging fleet.

Israeli Authority Backs Down from Mount of Olives Park Plan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Israel’s Nature and Parks Authority on Monday said it was backing down from a contentious plan to encompass Christian holy sites on Jerusalem’s Mount of Olives in a national park following vociferous outcry from major churches. The Mount of Olives in east Jerusalem rises above Jerusalem’s Old City and its sites are holy to three monotheistic faiths. Its slopes to the east of the Old City are studded with churches of various sects that mark the traditional places of events in the life of Jesus. The Armenian, Catholic and Greek Orthodox churches petitioned Israel’s environmental protection minister, whose department is in charge of the Parks Authority, in a letter last week. The churches expressed the “gravest concern and unequivocal objection” to the plan, saying it would disrupt the longstanding state of affairs and aims to “confiscate and nationalize one of the holiest sites for Christianity and alter its nature.”Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg did not respond to interview requests. But shortly after the churches' outcry, the Nature and Parks Authority said it was freezing the plan, which was to be approved on March 2 by Jerusalem's planning committee. The authority said it has “no intention of advancing the plan in the planning committee and it is not ready for discussion without coordination and communication with all relevant officials, including the churches, in the area.”Israeli rights groups and peace activists had denounced the plan as an attempt by Israeli authorities to marginalize Palestinian residents and increase the Jewish religious and national significance of the Mount of Olives. In a joint statement, rights groups Bimkom, Emek Shaveh, Ir Amim and Peace Now said the plan to extend the Jerusalem Walls National Park to include sections of the Mount of Olives was part of “various mechanisms used by Israel in east Jerusalem to entrench its sovereignty, to marginalize non-Jewish presence and to prevent much needed development of Palestinian neighborhoods hereby increasing the pressure to push them out of the Old City basin.” Israel captured east Jerusalem and its Jewish, Christian and Muslim holy sites in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in a move unrecognized by most of the international community. The holy city is the emotional epicenter of the more than century-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and even minor changes to the fragile status quo in Jerusalem has the potential to erupt into violence. The Palestinians seek east Jerusalem as capital of a future independent state, while Israel considers the city its united capital.

Israel Successfully Tests Naval Air Defense System
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Israel on Monday said it successfully tested a new naval air defense system, intercepting a series of threats in what officials called a key layer of protection against Iran and its proxies in the region. The “C-Dome” system is a naval version of the Iron Dome, which has been used to shoot down rockets fired from the Gaza Strip for the past decade. The C-Dome is being installed on Israel's latest-generation corvette warships, which protect Israel's coastline and offshore natural gas assets in the Mediterranean. Monday's test simulated a number of incoming threats, including rockets, cruise missiles and drones, the Defense Ministry said. “The systems that we are developing as part of Israel’s multi-tier missile defense array enable us to operate against Iranian proxies in the region and defend against their weapon systems, which are constantly being upgraded,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said. “We continue to be two steps ahead of them and we will continue developing and upgrading our capabilities in order to maintain security superiority in the region.”The C-Dome is to become part of Israel's multi-layer missile defense system — which includes weapons capable of intercepting everything from long-range missiles to short-range rockets.
The test comes at a time of heightened tensions. The Iranian-backed Hezbollah party in Lebanon launched a pair of drones into Israeli airspace last week, and Iran is believed to be close to signing a new international nuclear deal with global powers that will give it relief from crippling sanctions. Israel opposes the deal, and fears that Iran will divert newly released funds to proxies like Hezbollah. Hezbollah has made no secret that it would target Israel's gas platforms if fighting were to break out. Israel and Hezbollah fought a monthlong war in 2006. During that fighting, Hezbollah fired a missile that struck an Israeli warship, killing four Israeli soldiers.

Morocco, Israel Sign Trade Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Morocco and Israel on Monday signed a trade agreement to facilitate investments as the two countries look to broaden cooperation since they normalized relations in 2020. The deal was signed in Rabat by Israeli Economy Minister Orna Barbivai and Moroccan Trade Minister Ryad Mezzour, Reuters said. Barbivai told a news conference Israel aspires to increase trade with Morocco from $131 million currently to $500 million "soon." Morocco was one of four Arab countries - along with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan - to move towards normalizing ties with Israel last year under US- engineered accords.

Iran President Makes Maiden Gulf Trip for Gas, Nuclear Talks
Agence France Presse/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi arrived in Qatar on his first visit to a Gulf Arab state Monday for a major gas summit that will be dominated by tensions over Ukraine. Raisi and Qatar's emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, a close U.S. ally, are also expected to discuss growing efforts to revive a stalled international deal to regulate Iran's nuclear program. Tuesday's Gas Exporting Countries Forum will be overshadowed by growing tensions around Ukraine which have boosted demand for gas as well as the price paid by consumers. Producing nations say they will not be able to provide substantial amounts of gas to Europe if Russia, which has been accused of preparing an attack on Ukraine, cuts supplies in any sanctions showdown. Raisi has not travelled in the Gulf region since taking office in June, and it is only his fourth trip abroad. Qatar authorities imposed stringent security for his arrival at Doha airport, where he was met by the emir. Qatar has added the Iran nuclear dispute to its list of diplomatic hotspots where it has taken a behind-the-scenes mediation role. Earlier this month Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani went on an unannounced visit to Tehran after the emir met U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington.
 'Common concern' -
The Qatar government said that the emir and Raisi would discuss issues of "common concern" without giving details. Diplomats said, however, that the nuclear talks would be on the agenda. In 2015, Iran and six world powers including the United States reached a landmark nuclear agreement that offered Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its atomic programme. The United States unilaterally withdrew from the deal in 2018 under then president Donald Trump and reimposed heavy economic sanctions. Talks on reviving the deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), have been held in the Austrian capital Vienna since late November, involving Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia directly and the United States indirectly. Raisi and the Qatari emir will be joined at Tuesday's summit by Algeria's President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister Keith Rowley. Energy ministers from the other seven forum members who include Russia will also take part. Ministers from the 11-member group were to meet later Monday to approve a summit statement that industry analysts predicted would touch on the lack of spare supplies that could help Europe, where consumers are already paying record prices for gas. Qatar and other countries have insisted that massive investment is needed in gas, and that they need the certainty of long-term contracts to be able to guarantee supplies to Europe.  The European Union has long resisted the 10, 15 and 20-year contracts signed by other major customers for Qatar's gas, who include China, Japan and South Korea. The United States has asked Qatar to help Europe by preparing emergency supplies if the Ukraine crisis erupts.

Expansion Project in East Jerusalem Sparks Tension between Israeli Authorities, Church Leaders
Ramallah - Kifah Zboun/Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 21 February, 2022
Israeli officials are preparing to advance an unprecedented project to expand a national park onto church-owned lands and Christian holy sites in East Jerusalem, sparking fierce opposition from local Christian leaders. The move would not strip the landholders of their ownership, but it would give the government some authority over Palestinian and church properties and religious sites, the Times of Israel reported. This step led church officials and rights groups to characterize the measure as a power grab and a threat to Christian presence in the Holy Land, the site added. Opponents of the project also underlined the ties between the state body advancing the plan and the nationalist groups that are working to anchor Jewish presence in contested East Jerusalem areas, including the turbulent Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. Rights groups believe the planned park expansion is part of a larger nationalist strategy to “encircle” Jerusalem’s Old City by taking control of adjacent areas of East Jerusalem. The plan would see the borders of the Jerusalem Walls National Park extended to include a large section of the Mount of Olives along with additional parts of the Kidron and Ben Hinnom Valleys. It is scheduled to come before the Jerusalem municipality’s Local Planning and Construction Committee for preliminary approval on March 2. The Israel Nature and Parks Authority (INPA), which is promoting the project, said the expansion is designed to restore long-neglected lands and better preserve historical landscapes, and that it will not harm the church properties incorporated into the national park.
However, church leaders stressed that their communities are under threat by radical Israeli groups. Last week, a visiting delegation of Democrats from the US House of Representatives was briefed on the matter and subsequently raised their concern regarding the project with Prime Minister Naftali Bennett during a meeting on Thursday. Bennett did not appear familiar with the previously unpublicized plan, but he told the US lawmakers that he was doing everything he could to reduce tensions in Jerusalem and prevent steps that might trigger new violence, according to two congress sources.
On Friday, Greek Orthodox Patriarch of Jerusalem Theopolis III, Catholic Church Custos of the Holy Land Francesco Patton and Armenian Patriarch of Jerusalem Nourhan Manougian penned a letter to Environmental Protection Minister Tamar Zandberg, whose office oversees the INPA, urging her to take steps to get the planned expansion canceled. “Although the plan is officially presented by the INPA, it seems that it was put forward and is being orchestrated, advanced and promoted by entities whose apparent sole purpose is to confiscate and nationalize one of the holiest sites for Christianity and alter its nature,” the church leaders wrote. They were referring in their remarks to the Mount of Olives, where Christians believe several key events in Jesus’s life took place. “This is a brutal measure that constitutes a direct and premeditated attack on the Christians in the Holy Land, on the churches and their ancient, internationally guaranteed rights in the Holy City,” the letter read. “Under the guise of protecting green spaces, the plan appears to serve an ideological agenda that denies the status and rights of Christians in Jerusalem.”The church leaders also sent the letter to the Jerusalem consuls general of France, Turkey, Italy, Greece, Spain, the UK, Belgium and Sweden, in an apparent effort to mobilize international support for their opposition. A spokeswoman for the INPA said that while the churches may not support the project, the INPA hopes to reach out to all of them before the planning committee discussion next month to discuss the matter. She further insisted that the project would not harm the churches and is designed to preserve the historic terrain, as national parks are meant to do.But church leaders aren’t convinced and the move appears poised to intensify the already heated debate they have been having with Israeli authorities.

Drones evolving into terrorists' 'weapon of choice' in the region, experts warn
Reuters/The Arab Weekly/February 21/2022
Recent events have shown the growing risk of drone attacks by terrorist groups in the region, such as those launched against the UAE by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels, experts at an Abu Dhabi conference have warned. The Unmanned Systems Exhibition (UMEX), running until Wednesday, began in the UAE capital with regional and Western military and industry representatives, including from the United States, Britain and France. Speakers addressed the importance of developing Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) for civil and military uses but also acknowledged their dangers when used by groups deemed a threat to the region. While the event will showcase the latest in high-tech drone technology, the host country warned that such weapons are becoming cheaper and more widespread. They are now part of the arsenals of "terrorist groups that use the systems to terrorise civilians or to impact the global system in a negative way," said the UAE's Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence, Omar bin Sultan al-Olama. "That is a challenge that requires us to ... work together to ensure that we can create a shield against the use of these systems."
The explosive-laden drones provide cheap weapons for Iran and its proxy militias in the region, in particular. Since they can be assembled and modified from inexpensive and widely available parts, radical groups and terrorist organisations can consider the drones their “weapon of choice” in carrying out subversion and destabilisation activities. This explains the wide use of drones by groups such as Yemen's Houthis, Iraq's Popular Mobilisation Forces and Iran's Hezbollah. The UAE is part of a Saudi-led military coalition that has been fighting in Yemen since 2015 to support the internationally-recognised government against Iran-backed Houthi rebels. While the Emirates announced it withdrew its troops from the country in 2019, it remains an influential player, backing fighters who have inflicted severe defeats on the Houthis in recent weeks.
The UAE has been on heightened alert since a Houthi drone and missile attack killed three oil workers in Abu Dhabi on January 17. The authorities have since thwarted three similar attacks, including one claimed by a little-known militant group believed to have ties with pro-Iran armed factions in Iraq. Regional experts saw Iran's hands behind the acts regardless of the proxy cover used. The UAE's ally the United States has deployed a warship and fighter planes to help protect the Middle East financial and leisure hub, which despite the drone attacks is still perceived as a safe haven in the volatile region.
France also said it would bolster its defence cooperation with the UAE, mostly in securing its air space. In December, the Saudi-led coalition said the Houthis had fired more than 850 attack drones and 400 ballistic missiles at the kingdom in the past seven years, killing a total of 59 civilians.
That figure compares with the 401 coalition air raids carried out in January alone over Yemen, according to the Yemen Data Project, an independent tracker which reported around 9,000 civilian fatalities from the strikes in that country since 2015.
Difficult to counter
While many countries call for a collective effort to protect airspaces against the small and often hard-to-detect targets, one question remained: how to easily stop a drone attack? So far, options to counter drones have seemed limited. This is due to several considerations, most notably the drone's great ability to infiltrate the skies of targeted countries. Also, Patriot and THAAD missile defence systems used in the region were designed to shoot down ballistic missiles flying at high altitudes, not low flying drones. By working to send drones in swarm formations, Iran tries to further complicate the task of thwarting its instigated attacks. "We have to unite to prevent the use of drones from threatening civilian safety and destroying economic institutions," said Mohammed bin Ahmed al-Bowardi, United Arab Emirates' Minister of State for Defence Affairs. EDGE, a UAE manufacturer tasked with supplying advanced weapons to the UAE armed forces, is focused on developing drones, unmanned vehicles, smart weapons and electronic warfare equipment rather than conventional weaponry. It is developing a directed energy system, to be unveiled next year, that can be used against aerial and land threats
Last year the United States and Israel said an Iranian drone attacked a ship managed by an Israeli billionaire as it sailed off Oman. Two crew members were killed. More recently, Israel's military said its air defences fired at a drone that had crossed into its airspace from Lebanon on Friday, the second UAS intrusion in as many days. Such incidents have again raised concerns about the dangers of bomb-laden drones. Some are difficult for radar to detect and require a complex process to shoot down without causing casualties from falling shrapnel.These are concerns and challenges that "our adversaries" do not have, said Major General Sean A Gainey, US Army director of the Joint Counter-Small Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office. "They're rapidly purchasing this stuff off the shelf, redesign it, taking the great technology that's being developed for good, and then employing it" for other purposes, he said. One way of countering a drone attack is to integrate artificial intelligence in air defence systems."They can detect a target through some form of AI, track that target and ultimately defeat that target," Gainey said, adding: "AI is going to be a key component to the counter-UAS fight."

Putin Accuses West of Threatening Russia through Ukraine
Agence France Presse/February 21/2022
President Vladimir Putin warned Monday that Western powers were using Moscow's feud with Ukraine to threaten Russia's own security and said he was considering recognizing the independence of two breakaway Russian-backed regions. Openly backing the separatist regions of Donetsk and Lugansk in eastern Ukraine would effectively put to an end an already shaky peace plan and dramatically increase the likelihood of an all-out Russian invasion. Moscow appeared to be already laying the groundwork for such an operation by claiming -- to furious Kyiv denials -- that its forces had intercepted and killed five Ukrainian saboteurs who infiltrated Russian territory, and accusing Ukraine of shelling a border post. The claim and counterclaim undermined efforts by European leaders to broker a diplomatic resolution, by urging Putin to hold a summit with his U.S. counterpart Joe Biden, although Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did say he would meet his U.S. counterpart on Thursday. Putin made his declaration as he opened a carefully stage-managed meeting of Russia's national security council with made-for-television opening remarks.
Security or confrontation?
"Our goal is to listen to our colleagues and determine our next steps in this direction, bearing in mind both the appeals of the leaders of the DNR (Donetsk People's Republic) and LNR (Lugansk People's Republic) to recognize their independence," Putin said. "The use of Ukraine as an instrument of confrontation with our country poses a serious, very big threat to us," Putin said, adding that Moscow's priority was "not confrontation, but security". Ukraine and Washington, however, now expect confrontation. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told NBC news that a Russian invasion of its neighbor would be an "extremely violent" operation followed by a brutal occupation. It will be a war waged by Russia on the Ukrainian people to repress them, to crush them, to harm them," the White House official said. Reflecting the gravity of the situation, which Western leaders have dubbed the worst threat to peace in Europe since the Cold War, stocks listed on the Moscow Stock Exchange fell steeply by around 10 percent. Western powers have threatened a crippling sanctions package if Russia invades.
'Crush them, harm them'
The Kremlin has dispatched a huge force to Ukraine's border -- U.S. intelligence says it is more than 150,000-strong and poised to attack -- and on Monday the military said it had killed five infiltrators in the Rostov region, near Russia's border with rebel-held Ukraine. "As a result of clashes, five people who violated the Russian border from a group of saboteurs were killed," the military said in a statement. This followed an earlier claim that a shell fired from Ukraine had destroyed a shed at a Russian border post, and repeated claims that Kyiv's forces are shelling the pro-Russian enclave or plotting to attack it. Kyiv, concerned that Russia is building a narrative to justify an invasion, immediately denied all the allegations, which are being widely broadcast on Russian state media, and Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba took to Twitter. "No, Ukraine did NOT: attack Donetsk or Lugansk, send saboteurs or APCs (armored personnel carriers) over the Russian border, shell Russian territory, shell Russian border crossing, conduct acts of sabotage," he said. "Ukraine also does NOT plan any such actions. Russia, stop your fake-producing factory now," he wrote. Mounting concern over an invasion quickly overshadowed a French diplomatic initiative, backed by Germany, to push for a summit between Putin and Biden. Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "It's premature to talk about any specific plans for organizing any kind of summits" adding that no "concrete plans" had been put in place. A French presidential official later called on Putin to make a quick decision on the meeting, calling the situation "very dangerous.""It is today possible to move towards a summit... it is up to President Putin to make his choice," the source said. Visiting Brussels, Kuleba gave a cautious welcome to the French effort. "We believe that every effort aimed at a diplomatic solution is worth trying," he said. But Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said there was no sign of Russian forces withdrawing from the border and that Moscow-backed rebels continue to shell Ukrainian positions. Russia annexed the Ukrainian region of Crimea in 2014 and Moscow-backed separatists hold an enclave in the eastern distracts of Lugansk and Donetsk. In recent weeks, according to U.S. intelligence, Moscow has massed an invasion force of troops, tanks, missile batteries and warships around Ukraine's borders in Belarus, Russia, Crimea and the Black Sea. Biden has said that U.S. intelligence believes that Putin has made a decision to invade Ukraine and that commanders are readying units to attack within days.

Putin Recognizes Ukraine Rebel Regions, Angers West
Associated Press/February 21/2022
Russian President President Vladimir Putin on Monda recognized the independence of separatist regions in eastern Ukraine — a move that will severely ratchet up tensions with the West amid fears that his country could invade Ukraine at any moment and use skirmishes as a pretext for an attack. Putin's announcement comes after a meeting of the presidential Security Council and paves the way for Russia to openly send troops and weapons to the long-running conflict pitting Ukrainian forces against Moscow-backed rebels. A 2015 peace deal ended large-scale fighting, but violence has simmered and has seen a spike in recent weeks amid the wider crisis. European leaders had urged Putin to resist recognition, and the EU foreign policy chief threatened possible sanctions if he does. Ukraine's president convened an emergency meeting of top security officials.
According to the Kremlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron voiced "disappointment with such a development" but also "readiness to continue contacts." At a carefully orchestrated, pre-recorded meeting of Putin's Security Council, a stream of top Russian officials argued for recognizing the separatist regions' independence, though some suggested Putin didn't have to do it immediately. It came amid a spike in skirmishes in those regions that Western powers believe Russia could use as a pretext for an attack on the western-looking democracy that has defied Moscow's attempts to pull it back into its orbit. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the U.S. has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, the American and Russian presidents tentatively agreed to a possible meeting in a last-ditch effort to avoid war. If Russia moves in, the meeting will be off, but the prospect of a face-to-face summit resuscitated hopes that diplomacy could prevent a devastating conflict, which would result in massive casualties and huge economic damage across Europe, which is heavily dependent on Russian energy. European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at an EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels that, "If there is a recognition, I will put sanctions on the table and the (EU) ministers will decide" whether to agree to impose the restrictive measures on Russia. Even as the diplomatic efforts inched forward, potential flashpoints multiplied. Sustained shelling continued Monday in Ukraine's east. Unusually, Russia said it had fended off an "incursion" from Ukraine — which Ukrainian officials denied. And Russia decided to prolong military drills in Belarus, which could offer a staging ground for an attack on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv. Until now, Ukraine and the West have accused Russia of supporting the separatists, but Moscow has denied that, saying that Russians who fought there were volunteers.
At Monday's meeting, Putin's top defense and security officials paraded before him one by one to outline arguments for recognizing the regions as independent to protect civilians there. At one point, one slipped up and said he favored including them as part of Russian territory — but Putin quickly corrected him. Some suggested, however, that Russia give the West a few more days to press Ukraine to fulfill a peace agreement that halted major fighting in 2015. Earlier Monday, leaders of the regions released televised statements pleading with Putin to recognize them and sign treaties that would allow for military aid to protect them from what they described as an ongoing Ukrainian military offensive. Russia's lower house of parliament made the same plea last week. Ukrainian authorities deny launching an offensive and accuse Russia of provocation.
But the Kremlin initially signaled its reluctance to recognize the regions in eastern Ukraine, arguing that would effectively shatter the peace deal, which marked a major diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukrainian authorities to offer a broad self-rule to the rebel regions. The deal was resented by many in Ukraine who saw it as a capitulation, a blow to the country's integrity and a betrayal of national interests. Putin and other officials argued Monday that Ukrainian authorities have shown no appetite for implementing it. With the prospect of war looming, French President Emmanuel Macron scrambled to broker a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Putin, who denies he has any plans to attack Ukraine. Russia says it wants Western guarantees that NATO won't allow Ukraine and other former Soviet countries to join as members — and Putin said Monday a simple moratorium on Ukraine's accession wouldn't be enough. Moscow has also demanded the alliance halt weapons deployments to Ukraine and roll back its forces from Eastern Europe — demands flatly rejected by the West.
Macron's office said both leaders had "accepted the principle of such a summit," to be followed by a broader meeting that would include other "relevant stakeholders to discuss security and strategic stability in Europe."
The language from Moscow and Washington was more cautious, but neither side denied a meeting is under discussion. During the Kremlin meeting, several top officials spoke skeptically about a possible summit, saying it was unlikely to yield any results. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan, meanwhile, said the administration has always been ready to talk to avert a war — but was also prepared to respond to any attack. "So when President Macron asked President Biden yesterday if he was prepared in principle to meet with President Putin, if Russia did not invade, of course President Biden said yes," he told NBC's "Today" show on Monday. "But every indication we see on the ground right now in terms of the disposition of Russian forces is that they are, in fact, getting prepared for a major attack on Ukraine." Macron's office said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would lay the groundwork for the potential summit when they meet Thursday. Lavrov was set to meet France's foreign minister Friday.
Amid the hopeful signs, there were also worrying ones. Since Thursday, shelling has spiked along the tense line of contact that separates Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine's eastern industrial heartland of Donbas. Over 14,000 people have been killed since conflict erupted there in 2014, shortly after Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula. Ukraine and the separatist rebels have traded blame for massive cease-fire violations with hundreds of explosions recorded daily. While Russia-backed separatists have charged that Ukrainian forces were firing on residential areas, Associated Press journalists reporting from several towns and villages in Ukrainian-held territory along the line of contact have not witnessed any notable escalation from the Ukrainian side and have documented signs of intensified shelling by the separatists that destroyed homes and ripped up roads. Some residents of the main rebel-held city of Donetsk described sporadic shelling by Ukrainian forces, but they added that it wasn't on the same scale as earlier in the conflict. The separatist authorities said Monday that at least four civilians were killed by Ukrainian shelling over the past 24 hours and several others were wounded. Ukraine's military said two Ukrainian soldiers were killed over the weekend, and another serviceman was wounded Monday. Ukrainian military spokesman Pavlo Kovalchyuk said the separatists were "cynically firing from residential areas using civilians as shields." He insisted that Ukrainian forces weren't returning fire.
In the village of Novognativka on the Ukraine government-controlled side, 60-year-old Ekaterina Evseeva, said the shelling was worse than at the height of fighting early in the conflict. "We are on the edge of nervous breakdowns. And there is nowhere to run," she said, her voice trembling.
In another worrying sign, the Russian military said it killed five suspected "saboteurs" who crossed from Ukraine into Russia's Rostov region and also destroyed two armored vehicles and took a Ukrainian serviceman prisoner. Ukrainian Border Guard spokesman Andriy Demchenko dismissed the claim as "disinformation." Amid the heightened invasion fears, the U.S. administration sent a letter to the United Nations human rights chief claiming that Moscow has compiled a list of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to detention camps after the invasion. The letter, first reported by the New York Times, was obtained by the AP. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the claim was a lie and no such list exists.

Erdogan starts African tour with Congo visit
AFP/The Arab Weekly/February 21/2022
"Win-win" security and economic deals were reached during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's "historic" official visit to the Democratic Republic of Congo, the African country's leader said on Sunday. President Felix Tshisekedi met his counterpart, who was backed by a delegation of Turkish government members and businessmen, in the capital Kinshasa for a two-day visit. He said the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Turkey reached "win-win" cooperation agreements on security, infrastructure, health and transport, hailing a "historic day" for relations between the nations after speaking with Erdogan.
Tshisekedi added that the DRC requested Turkish assistance in the long-running fight against militias in the conflict-torn east of the country. Erdogan's African tour, from February 20 to 23, will move on to Senegal and Guinea-Bissau after his stay in Kinshasa. It follows bilateral meetings held between the two heads of state last year. In September, Tshisekedi paid an official visit to Ankara on the theme of economic cooperation and travelled to Istanbul in December where he took part in a Turkey-Africa summit. Relations between Ankara and Kinshasa have been good for several years and the volume of Turkish investments in the DRC continues to grow. Bilateral trade between the two amounts to about $40 million, but Turkey is seeking to strengthen its presence in Africa. Since 2003, the volume of its trade with the continent has increased from $2 billion to at least $25 billion. Erdogan has visited Africa nearly 40 times since 2005, as prime minister and president, during which time Turkey has opened some 40 embassies on the continent. Turkish Airlines has expanded its African route network rapidly in recent years and now flies to 50 destinations on the continent, to which this summer it will add Juba, the capital of South Sudan. Turkey's influence covers the realm of defence with Ankara inaugurating its first African military base in 2017 in Somalia. The DRC faces insecurity in its eastern region due to the presence of dozens of armed groups that regularly threaten civilians. Military operations are under way against these groups, which include the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the Islamic State's branch in Central Africa which is blamed for thousands of killings in the eastern DRC.

Egypt, Sudan draw sobering lessons from Ethiopia's Nile dam power
AFP/The Arab Weekly/February 21/2022
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed inaugurated electricity production from the country's mega-dam on the Blue Nile on Sunday, a milestone in the controversial multi-billion dollar project. Abiy, accompanied by high-ranking officials, toured the power generation station and pressed a series of buttons on a touch screen, a move that officials said initiated production. The announcement that power generation had begun at Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam showed that major crises are not resolved by populist propaganda and aimless diplomatic manoeuvres, analysts said.
Such an expedient approach was no substitute for the lack of more appropriate Egyptian-Sudanese efforts to effectively press Addis Ababa to sign a binding agreement that would have guaranteed water rights for all parties, the analysts added. The Egyptian foreign ministry issued a brief statement on the start of electricity production, considering the move an illustration of the “persistence by the Ethiopian side in violating its obligations under the 2015 Declaration of Principles Agreement.”The new phase, which is part of a dam development plan begun some two decades ago, confirms that the Ethiopian vision for the Renaissance Dam is working. Ultimately it is planned that the dam will provide electricity for the 60 percent of the Ethiopian population that currently lacks it while exporting surplus power to neighbouring countries. Abiy Ahmed, in an effort to reassure Egypt and Sudan, said, "I congratulate the downstream countries on the start of power generation and I emphasise that the benefit will be mutual. The Nile waters will continue to flow to Egypt and Sudan and no harm will befall them."Egyptian experts have tried to play down the importance of the dam’s power generation, in its second phase. They had previously stressed the difficulties faced by Ethiopian engineers in producing electricity. The news that the turbines were generating power, therefore, came to them as a surprise. Professor of Water Resources at Cairo University, Abbas Sharaki, said that the Ethiopian move was "expected, but the timing was not known."
Ethiopia’s running up of the generators indicates that in fact Egypt and Sudan had lacked sufficient information about the progress of the Renaissance Dam project. Their emphasis on Ethiopia's power generation difficulties is now seen as having been pure propaganda.
Starting the turbines, regardless of how much electricity is actually generated, is described by analysts as a moral victory for Addis Ababa, over both Cairo and Khartoum and an illustration of the failure of the two countries' approach to the dispute for over ten years.
The generation of electricity without achieving a tripartite agreement turns the dam into a fait accompli. The third phase, that of completely filling the dam’s reservoir, in next July and August, is not expected to face major obstacles from Egypt and Sudan. Observers say the only option left for Egypt and Sudan now is to accept minimum understandings with Ethiopia.
Ripple effects
Nevertheless, announcement of the generation of electricity is expected to carry unavoidable repercussions on Egypt, where the official narrative has always stressed that no country will be allowed to transgress the red lines of Egypt's national security. Egypt has no choice at this stage but to ask the African Union to quickly resume the stalled negotiations as the only way out of the protracted crisis. The process of generating electricity may put Cairo in a very difficult position at home and in the region. Describing the Ethiopian move as having no negative effects on Egypt's interests will show that Cairo has until now, espoused an unrealistic and populist discourse. Now, it must deal with the fact that it is too late to reject Addis Ababa's actions or hint at using hard power to resolve the row. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is set to be the largest hydroelectric scheme in Africa but has been at the centre of a regional dispute ever since work first began in 2011. Ethiopia's downstream neighbours Egypt and Sudan view it as a threat because of their dependence on Nile waters, while Addis Ababa deems it essential for its electrification and development. The $4.2-billion project is ultimately expected to produce more than 5,000 megawatts of electricity, more than doubling Ethiopia's electricity output. State media reported that the dam had started generating 375 megawatts of electricity from one of its turbines on Sunday. The 145-metre high barrage lies on Blue Nile River in the Benishangul-Gumuz region of western Ethiopia, not far from the border with Sudan. Egypt, which depends on the Nile for about 97 percent of its irrigation and drinking water, sees the dam as an existential threat. Sudan hopes the project will regulate annual flooding, but fears its own dams could be harmed without agreement on the GERD's operation. Both countries have been pushing Ethiopia for a binding deal over the filling and operation of the massive dam, but talks under the auspices of the African Union (AU) have failed to reach a breakthrough. Those in attendance at Sunday's ceremony included First Lady Zinash Tayachew, the heads of the lower house of parliament and the Supreme Court, regional presidents and government ministers. The process of filling the GERD's vast reservoir began in 2020, with Ethiopia announcing in July of that year it had hit its target of 4.9 billion cubic metres. The reservoir's total capacity is 74 billion cubic metres, and the target for 2021 was to add 13.5 billion. Last July Ethiopia said it had hit that target, meaning there was enough water to begin producing energy, although some experts had cast doubt on the claims.

Libya’s Presidential Council rushes to support UN adviser
Reuters/The Arab Weekly/February 21/2022
Abdullah al-Lafi, deputy chairman of Libya’s Presidential Council, has voiced his support for the UN adviser Stephanie Williams after the latter was accused of bias by the Libyan government. Lafi spoke on the phone with Williams on Saturday to reiterate the council’s support for the UN diplomat’s “impartial position.” The two also discussed the challenges facing the political process and ways to overcome them. This comes after Mohamed Hamouda, the government’s spokesman, claimed that Williams is fuelling the political crisis in Libya by siding with Prime Minister-designate Fathi Bashagha over the incumbent Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. According to observers, Lafi’s move seeks to fix the muddled situation created by the government of Dbeibeh over the past year, which resulted into a failure to organise elections and establish stability in the country. Over the last few days, Williams has received messages of support from the US embassy in Libya, the European Union ambassador to Libya, as well as the Russian deputy foreign minister, Vladimir Putin's envoy to the Middle East and African countries, Mikhail Bogdanov. These followed accusations of "bias", made by Hamouda who was commenting on Williams’ meeting with Aguila Saleh, the speaker of the House of Representatives (Libya's parliament). In a series of Tweets, Williams said that the two sides “discussed the guarantees for the joint committee to deliver the amendments to the Draft Constitution on time; and ways to ensure that the two chambers reach a consensual formula within the shortest timeframe possible, to enable the holding of elections to respect the will of the 2.8 million Libyan citizens who have registered to vote.”“I took note of the speaker’s explanation on the parliament’s mechanism to grant confidence to the new government in keeping with the procedures implemented in the March 2021 confidence vote,” she added.
Hamouda, however, criticised Williams' position, saying that her support for the arguments of certain parties, which wished to postpone elections and extend their mandates, contradicted her statements in support of holding elections as soon as possible in Libya. Hammouda added that the recent statements by Williams showed a kind of bias that should not be practised by the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), adding that such a behaviour would affect the stability of the country. Williams has recently met various Libyan politicians, including Dbeibeh last week. She renewed her call to all Libyan actors and institutions to work “within the political framework” and maintain Libya’s stability. She also met in the capital, Tripoli, Prime Minister-designate Fathi Bashagha and stressed “the need to move forward in a transparent and consensual manner without any exclusion.”On Monday, she had a meeting with the head of Libyan Presidential Council Mohammed Menfi and council member Lafi in the capital, Tripoli and discussed the latest political developments, before moving on Wednesday to the city of Al-Qubba where she met Saleh. Over recent weeks, Dbeibah has been seeking to strengthen his position against a push by the eastern-based parliament to replace him. However, his position and that of the internationally-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU) which he leads hangs in the balance with the parliament tasking former interior minister Fathi Bashagha to form a new administration. Dbeibah says he does not recognise the validity of Bashagha’s appointment. Bashagha has been holding consultations with political and regional factions and is due to propose a new cabinet next week, a point that may determine the success or failure of the parliament’s push to replace Dbeibah. It comes at a key moment in the fragile attempt to wrest Libya from more than a decade of chaos and violence after the collapse in December of a planned national election, as many Libyans fear the new political crisis could trigger fresh strife. The parliament, which mostly sided with eastern forces in the civil war that started in 2014, moved to seize control of the political process after the elections collapsed. Its speaker Aguila Saleh said the GNU was no longer valid and the chamber set a roadmap that involved redrafting the temporary constitution, appointing a new interim government and pushing back elections.Critics of Saleh accuse him of seeking to postpone votes that would replace the parliament and of abusing parliamentary processes to push through Bashagha’s designation as prime minister, both of which he denies. Dbeibah has said that eight years after the parliament was elected, its legitimacy has expired and he has promised to issue his own roadmap in the coming days for national elections in June.

Canada strongly condemns Russia’s move to recognize independence of two regions within Ukraine
February 21, 2022 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today issued the following statement:
“Canada strongly condemns President Putin’s recognition of the non-government controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories. This constitutes a clear violation of the Minsk agreements, the UN Charter, and a serious threat to the security and stability of the region.
“Canada, with its partners and allies, will react firmly to this blatant disregard for international law. We are preparing to impose economic sanctions for these actions, separate from those prepared to respond to any further military invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
“Canada remains steadfast in its support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 21-22/2022
شارل الياس شرتوني/معاهدة التدمير الذاتي بين إيران والولايات المتحدة...
Iran-US, the Self Defeating Nuclear Treaty
Charles Elias Chartouni/February 21
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106493/charles-elias-chartouni-iran-us-the-self-defeating-nuclear-treaty-%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%84-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%b4%d8%b1%d8%aa%d9%88%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b9%d8%a7%d9%87/
The equivocations which prevail over the Nuclear Treaty are self defeating since the same ambiguities that undermined the 2015 treaty are still shrouding the ongoing negotiation course: the dissociation between nuclear militarization and Iran’s subversion politics throughout the Middle East. The secretive character of the current negotiations is forestalled by an open principled opposition stated by Republican and Democratic Congress members (letter circulated by a 100 co-signatories), who warned the administration against any unilateral move on this thorny issue that discredited the early treaty, removed conditional financial and economic sanctions, and allowed Iran to pursue its frontal assaults all along the regional arc of conflicts.
The bipartisan stonewalling cannot be overlooked by the Biden administration, especially at a time, when Russia and its authoritarian ilk are challenging the post Cold War limes and questioning the strategic thresholds set by a legacy of Strategic Arm Control agreements (SALT I-II, 1972, 1979, START I,II,III, 1991, 1993, 1997, SORT, 2003, NEW START, 2010). Negotiators cannot dismiss the interlocking issues and their incidence on international security and stability of the Larger Middle East strategic configuration. The looming disagreements are inevitably enhancing the strident internal polarization, at a pre-election stage and ahead of the more distant Presidential election in 2024. The administration cannot dismiss a consensual approach in regards to the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) lest it triggers backlashing effects, that may question its ability to finalize the treaty, steer course in the three incoming years, and secure alternation. The dissipation of ambiguities is quite essential insofar as the viability of the process, the redhibitory conditionalities set by the Iranian negotiator regarding the sunset clauses, the termination of the subversion politics episode, the normalization of the Iranian regime international status, and its steady attempt to join neo-totalitarian attempts at creating an international counter-system. Any sequential and compartmentalized approach to the negotiation process is self damning, and has no chance to survive its contradictory and ineffective postulates. Methodological flaws can never build or sustain a viable political dynamic, caveat emptor.

The Colonel and Dancing on the Edge of the Abyss
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al Awsat/February,21/2022
It is possible for the fate of a nation and people to hinge on a decision taken by the president. We, the children of the terrible Middle East know this story all too well. We know that the time of the state of institutions will not come any time soon. We know that the fate of peoples sometimes lies in the hands of the strong man, who believes that the parliament, constitution and army are there to do his bidding. We know that the man who holds the decision-making power can take a country in any direction he pleases. We know that the real job of advisors is to promote this decision that is taken without consulting them. The strong have a habit of dancing on the edge of the abyss. It is also possible for the fate of the entire world to hinge on the decision taken by one man. A man who leads a country that is armed to the teeth and wants to avenge the injustice brought against it by history. The past century is rife with men who took decisions that drowned the world or parts of it or their countries in swamps of blood. Experts have spent years delving into the biographies of these kinds of men. Some have described such men as sick. This was said of Hitler, Stalin, Pol Pot and several others. I grow fearful when I read such studies. I fear that they may have gone too far in explanations and making judgements. I most of all fear that they may be right.
I write this because the fate of the next stage hinges on the will of one man called Vladimir Putin. A man who managed to turn back the hands of time in Europe. Some say the man is an expert in exploiting the fears others harbor of him. That he is good at reaping the rewards of the portrait of the villain that has been painted of him and of the image of the sly player that he may have sought to forge. Some would say that the colonel who was tasked with following spies and subjugating others near the Berlin Wall before its collapse never got over his grudge against the West, which tore up the Soviet Union and Russia's great halo.
The experts dig up Mr. President's history and reassess his movements and gestures. Some, including the New York Times, have said that his keenness on keeping a distance between himself and his guests with a long table reflects his disconnection from reality, his isolation and belief that he is different than the leaders who have clamored to appease him.
Some have started to claim that this behavior can be blamed on the isolation prompted by the coronavirus. Others said he was trying to write the golden chapter of his history before he is beset by his 70s or surprises. Experts do not deny that a long stay at the palace and the president's sense that he is on a holy mission have played a major and dangerous part in affecting his personality.
The world was clearly taken off-guard by the Ukrainian crisis. It did not expect the master of the Kremlin to push Europe, within weeks, on the brink of the abyss. It did not expect to wake up one day and see the Old Continent once again grapple with threats of invasion and for military maneuvers to force NATO generals to update their old plans and again turn Russia into the number one enemy. Not since World War II has Europe seen such intimidation and misinformation. Western countries did not expect to be forced to review their arsenals and return to scenarios of invasions and streams of refugees.
The neutral observer of Putin's career rules out the possibility that he would command the Red Army to seize Ukraine, no matter the price. Such an adventure would revive the western alliance against Russia. It will return it to living under the snow, with an economy that is cut off from the West. Heavily shedding Ukrainian blood may not sit well within Russia itself because of ethnic, religious and historic ties. Such isolation will weaken Russia's position and turn it into the captive of the Chinese giant, which may be a greater danger to the land of Lenin than the West itself.
Did Mr. President land his country in a crisis? Did he gamble his entire winnings on the Ukrainian crisis that he caused? Can he go back from the brink of war without paying a price? Should the West take a hard line, will he resort to plunge the world in a long crisis by continuing to mobilize forces and oversee drills? Can Putin go back from the edge of the abyss without victory? What will his advisors and generals say? Who will take seriously any maneuvers or amassing of troops he may organize in the future?
I have read about Putin's "recklessness", "isolation" and "impact of the coronavirus" with unbelieving eyes. There can be no denying that the long stay at the palace may heighten the president's sense of grandeur that may lead him to speak with history instead of his advisors. It is hard to believe that a man as clever as Putin could be pushed by the coronavirus isolation into becoming detached from reality and regional and international facts.
We, the children of the terrible Middle East, sometimes fear the changes that the palace introduces to the dreams and delusions of the president. One day, Saddam Hussein ordered the republican guard to invade Kuwait without informing the defense minister or army commander. One day, Tariq Aziz attended a meeting of leaderships that decided that Kuwait should be viewed as a new Iraqi province. The wise and experienced Aziz realized the danger of the catastrophic decision but he did not attempt to change it. One day, the Iraqi military leaders realized that all the defenses had been destroyed, but no one dared ask Mr. President to withdraw from Kuwait.
One day, Moammar al-Gaddafi ordered the abduction of the OPEC ministers and the killing of the Saudi and Iranian ministers. The mission was given to Venezuela's notorious Carlos and so it was.
I know very well that Putin was a smart, careful and sly player. That he is a master in the art of deception and of hiding his intentions. Within the KGB, he studied deception, living under an alias, and writing in invisible ink. He learned the art of striking at the right moment without delay or preamble.
But the Ukrainian crisis is fraught with dangers and it will reveal that the feeling of might after restoring Crimea and intervening in Syria allowed the coronavirus isolation to push Mr. President to a position that is difficult to pull back from and where victory will be difficult to achieve. All that's left is to wait as the West may opt to bow to the colonel, who has grown adept at dancing at the edge of the abyss.

Tragedy of the Syrians Continues, While the World is Focused Elsewhere
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al Awsat/February,21/2022
There are many tragic outcomes of the Syrian civil war, but the most tragic one should be the case of Syrian refugees.
The events in Syria created the world’s largest refugee crisis since the Second World War. According to UNHCR, as of 31 January 2022, total number of registered Syrian refugees who have fled since 2011 and are living abroad is 5,689,538. Together with the unregistered, the number is estimated at around 7 million.
Majority of Syrians who fled Syria live in neighboring countries. (Turkey: 3.7 million; Lebanon: 839.788; Jordan: 673.188; Iraq: 256.006).
Additionally, in Syria there are 6.2 million internally displaced people. Thus, out of a pre-war population of 23 million Syrians, only 9-10 million have been able to remain in their place of origin.
Situation in Turkey, where most Syrians live:
The first group of Syrians who fled the crisis (252 of them) came into Turkey on 29 April. Then, as the crisis escalated, numbers began to rise and Turkish officials declared red lines. But the crisis developed in such a pace that red lines became meaningless.
In 2012 number of Syrians who entered Turkey was 14,000 and in 2013 the number went up to 224,000. Syrians fleeing their country swelled during the period 2014-2016. As a direct consequence of ISIS insurgence, Russian aerial bombardments and regime taking back Aleppo, the number of Syrians in Turkey went up to 2.8 million by the end of 2016 and then to its present number, exceeding 3.6 million.
Syrians in Turkey who are under the status of temporary protection, have become a fact of life. In the last 10 years, 735,000 Syrian babies were born in Turkey. According to information released by the Minister of Interior, as of 31 December 2021, 193,293 Syrians have become Turkish citizens, 84,152 of whom are children. Syrians in Turkey are now a part of Turkish domestic policy. Surveys indicate that for at least half of the electorate, Syrian refugees will be one of the issues in consideration in deciding which party to vote for.
Are Syrians returning back to Syria?
According to UNHCR, as of 31 January 2022, within the last 10 years, the total numbers of Syrians returning to their country from the neighboring countries are as follows: 125,047 from Turkey; 66,803 from Lebanon; 61,731 from Jordan; 50,106 from Iraq.
But, numbers may differ depending on the source. For example, spokesperson of the Ministry of Interior of Turkey recently stated that as of 4 February 2022, a total of 484,400 Syrians had returned to Syria.
Returns from Jordan and Lebanon are also minimal. On 3 January 2022, the UNHCR in Jordan announced at a press conference that 5,500 Syrian refugees had returned from Jordan to Syria in 2021.
According to “Lebanon Refugee Protection Watch”, despite the difficulties of living conditions in Lebanon, just 0.8 percent of Syrian refugees are considering to return. On the other hand, the report reveals that more than half of the returnees came back to Lebanon because of economic hardship, evasion of military service and harassment by security officials in Syria. In Turkey, Syrians were asked whether they consider returning back to Syria. According to this survey, in 2017, 16 percent; in 2019, 36 percent; in 2020, 58 percent; in 2021, 80 percent of Syrians said they would not return to Syria.
In any event, no matter which data is considered, it is obvious that the actual returns make up a very insignificant percentage and the intent to return in the future, at least in near future, is very low.
Why are Syrians reluctant to return:
United Nations Security Council Resolution 2449 stipulates a “safe, voluntary and dignified return”. But the present situation is very far away from these. On several occasions the Assad regime has called upon Syrians to return. The response was negative.
I think the main reasons for the negative response are as follows:
-Syria is full of uncertainties and is unsafe. There is no political settlement. Fighting has not come to an end. Crime has surged. It is too risky to move back.
-The regime is not ready to forget and forgive. Reports from various sources reveal that quite a number of returnees have faced arrest, detention, maltreatment, torture and at times death.
-Economic conditions are very bad. Infrastructure, housing, schooling, health services etc are not sufficient to provide an acceptable standard of life.
-Many Syrians have lost their houses and properties.
-Syrians who have fled, have established a life whichever country they are living now. In fact, the process is working the other way round. Whereas the international community is talking about how to facilitate a return to Syria, there seems to be a reverse process. Many people are leaving Syria or looking forward to leave at the first chance they get.
Role of the international community:
Syrians may be the largest group of refugees but they are not the only ones. Afghans are in the waiting, not only in Afghanistan but also in Iran. Then, there is the case of people fleeing violence, instability and poverty in Africa and seeking a fresh start elsewhere, mostly in Europe.
The refugee issue is the problem for the entire international community. It is too big for individual countries to deal with. No matter how rich in resources and capabilities, every individual country has its limits and would be overwhelmed at some point.
International solidarity and burden sharing are required. Countries are making their contributions, but to an extent. They are much more focused on the political, social and other implications of refugees and how to protect themselves against their effects.
We have been watching heartbreaking tragedies. For instance, in February this year, Greek border units captured a group of people who had crossed the border into Greece illegally, stripped them of their clothing and pushed them back to Turkey. Under below zero weather conditions, in the middle of nowhere, 19 of these people froze to death.
Harsh winter conditions claiming lives of Syrian babies in make shift camps in Syria, people drowning in the Mediterranean, sufferings and exploitation at the hands of human smugglers are no less tragedies.
The real and permanent solution for Syrian refugees is at the source, that is in Syria. Only if a political solution can be found, a safe and voluntary return could be realized. Many believe that Assad does not see any merit in return and is happy to keep out Syrians who would be an extra burden on an already shattered economy and who are mostly his opponents.It is on the international community to push for a political solution in Syria and to put pressure on Assad in order to create the right conditions for return.

Turkey’s women journalists are under attack from the state
Alexandra de Cramer/The Arab Weekly/February 21/2022
Journalism is in peril in Turkey, a country that is becoming known more for its jailed journalists than the quality of their reporting. Increasingly, though, it is Turkey’s female journalists, once the frontline defenders of Turkish media freedom, who are in the crosshairs. From institutional bias to the government’s repressive gender policies, being a woman in the Turkish news business is a thankless and often costly, endeavour.
Two years ago, the story read differently. In December 2020, the Turkish edition of Madame Figaro featured “The Jedi Women of The Fourth Estate”, five successful female journalists who were fighting the industry’s dark forces. Not only had these women established themselves in Turkey’s male chauvinistic media ecosystem, but they were still airing critical views despite an expanding bubble of censorship that was granted a legislative boost after a failed coup attempt in 2016.
Fast forward to 2022, and at least three of the five “Jedis of journalism” have appeared to become casualties of Turkey’s war on the press.
Last month, journalist and television presenter Sedef Kabas, the first Turk ever hired by CNN International, was detained for allegedly insulting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Her crime: reciting a proverb about a bull, a palace and a barn on television. With a disproportionate show of force, Kabas’s home was raided at 2am and she was taken into custody. Prosecutors have demanded an 11-year jail term. After the sudden arrest, fellow Madame Figaro “Jedi” Ozlem Gurses, reported the arrest on social media, lamenting the fate of her colleague.
Since the cover shoot, each of the other three women featured by Madame Figaro have left their positions. Ahu Ozyurt, a Columbia Journalism School graduate with more than 30 years of experience in news, lost her job at TV100 in a round of lay-offs. Tuluhan Tekelioglu left her job as a television anchorwoman to pursue documentary filmmaking. Even Esra Aysan, the editor-in-chief of Madame Figaro who brought the women together, has left the magazine.
“My heart is breaking,” Gurses wrote on Instagram. “All of us are educated, smart, conscientious, hardworking, strong women. The outcome should have somehow been different.”
Even in more emancipated countries, women are underrepresented and underpaid in the media landscape, especially in executive positions. In the United States, 73 percent of the top management jobs in the media sector are held by men. The gender gap seems hardest to bridge at the top echelons of liberal journalism. At The New York Times, for instance, two out of every three bylines are by men.
It was only after the #MeToo movement that Western media warmed up to the idea of female executives. In 2019, the Financial Times appointed its first female editor-in-chief, Roula Khalaf, in its 131-year history. In 2015, Katharine Viner broke the glass ceiling at the 194-year-old The Guardian and Zanny Minton Beddoes became the first female editor at the Economist in its 170 years. If it took this long for women in the West to ascend to the highest rungs of the media ladder, how can one expect Turkey’s female journalists to get there sooner?
Still, the gendered headwinds that Turkish journalists must navigate are particularly fierce. Turkey ranks 133 out of 156 countries for gender equality, according to the World Economic Forum and women make up less than one-third of Turkey’s labour force. Meanwhile, President Erdogan has pursued policies that have infuriated women’s rights activists, lawyers and opposition politicians. He has gone on record saying that women are not equal to men and has accused feminists of rejecting motherhood. Last year, he annulled Turkey's ratification of the Istanbul Convention on violence against women, bending to hardliners. All of this translates to a dismal showing for women in Turkey’s media industry. In 2014, the Bianet news agency found that 90 percent of newspaper editors-in-chief were men and just 16 percent of newsroom executives were women. Further analysis conducted in 2020 by Yunus Erduran and Dilek Icten, for the Media Research Association (MEDAR), found that 20 percent of employees in print media and 16 percent in television, are women. Moreover, a February 2018 survey of the Journalists’ Union of Turkey’s Women and LGBTI Commission, found that six in ten female journalists have been discriminated against due to their gender and more than 55 percent believe they are victims of unequal pay.
It is hard not to conclude that Turkey’s leaders have no interest in reversing these trends. Months before withdrawing from the Istanbul Convention, a report prepared by the Coalition for Women in Journalism (CFWIJ) ranked Turkey first in the world for violence against female journalists. Even more troubling, CFWIJ found a 158 percent spike in police violence against women in the news, a horrific uptick that can only be read as the state deliberately targeting female journalists.
Legal harassment and intimidation by the state have become daily hazards for journalists in Turkey and in 2021, 18 journalists were behind bars (down from 84 in 2016). Sedef Kabaş is one of the state’s most recent victims. The government’s position is clear: journalists who speak their minds have no place in today’s Turkey and that goes double for women.