English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 20/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.february20.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Parable Of Lazarus The Poor Man, & The Rich Man Who Was dressed In Purple & Fine Linen
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 16/19-31/:”‘There was a rich man who was dressed in purple and fine linen and who feasted sumptuously every day. And at his gate lay a poor man named Lazarus, covered with sores, who longed to satisfy his hunger with what fell from the rich man’s table; even the dogs would come and lick his sores. The poor man died and was carried away by the angels to be with Abraham. The rich man also died and was buried. In Hades, where he was being tormented, he looked up and saw Abraham far away with Lazarus by his side. He called out, “Father Abraham, have mercy on me, and send Lazarus to dip the tip of his finger in water and cool my tongue; for I am in agony in these flames.” But Abraham said, “Child, remember that during your lifetime you received your good things, and Lazarus in like manner evil things; but now he is comforted here, and you are in agony. Besides all this, between you and us a great chasm has been fixed, so that those who might want to pass from here to you cannot do so, and no one can cross from there to us.” He said, “Then, father, I beg you to send him to my father’s house for I have five brothers that he may warn them, so that they will not also come into this place of torment.” Abraham replied, “They have Moses and the prophets; they should listen to them.” He said, “No, father Abraham; but if someone goes to them from the dead, they will repent.” He said to him, “If they do not listen to Moses and the prophets, neither will they be convinced even if someone rises from the dead.” ’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 19-20/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 3729 new Corona cases, 21 deaths
Mikati, Le Drian convene during Munich Conference
Pope Francis meets Al-Absi, Heads of Eastern Catholic Churches
Geagea re-nominates Bou Assi for Baabda's Maronite Seat: Mar Mikhael agreement ruined Lebanon, dragged it hell
Makhzoumi launches electoral campaign: Beirut needs a heart
ISF Director General meets US Assistant State Secretary for Diplomatic Security at Martyr Al-Hassan Barracks
Jumblatt: I suggest investing depositors' money in the drone sector
Geagea on Hizbullah Drone: Shameful to Put Lebanon in Danger
Berri Calls on Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union to Adopt Lebanese-Gulf Dialogue
Tensions tail off in Lebanon after Hezbollah-Israel drone stand-off
Horrors of the Beirut port explosion described in new book/Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/February 19/2022
L'occupation elle-même est une tragédie. Mais le fait que cette occupation mette en danger le Liban est un double drame/Jean-Marie Kassab

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 19-20/2022
Ukraine leader proposes meeting with Putin
Putin launches nuclear drills as US says Russia poised to invade Ukraine
Ukraine Rebels Mobilize Troops amid Russia Invasion Fears
Biden is 'Convinced' Putin Has Decided to Invade Ukraine
Saudi Foreign Minister: We are looking forward to a fifth round of talks with Iran
'Moment of Truth' for Iran Nuclear Talks, Germany Says
Advocacy Group: US Firm's Tanker Illicitly Traded Iran Oil
US Proposes Strategy Based on ‘Pressuring' Houthis to End Yemen Crisis
Israeli Police Scatter Palestinian Protesters in Sheikh Jarrah Neighborhood
Tunisian President Extends State of Emergency
Canada/Statement the by G7 Foreign Ministers on Russia and Ukraine
Canadian police use pepper spray, stun grenades in push to clear capital

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 19-20/2022
To The Biden Admin: To Eradicate Iran's Terrorism, Confront the Ruling Mullahs/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute
Why do Iran, 'progressives,' fear Israel, the Abraham Accords/David M. Weinberg/Jerusalem Post
There’s More Than Ukraine. How About a China Pivot/John Authers/Bloomberg
La nouvelle guerre froide ou l’ “ensauvagement” en marche/Charles Elias Chartouni
Kurdistan’s warning shot/Mohammed Wani/The Arab Weekly
Road rage: Why are authorities struggling to tame the truckers/Ngaire Woods/ Arab News
Assad flogs off stolen Syrian lands to the Ayatollahs/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 19-20/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 3729 new Corona cases, 21 deaths
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
The Ministry of Public Health announced Saturday, in its daily report on COVID-19 developments, the registration of 3,729 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1,043,028.The report added that 21 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Mikati, Le Drian convene during Munich Conference
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Prime Minister Najib Mikati held a meeting today with French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, on the sidelines of their participation in the Security Conference in Munich, Germany. During the meeting, the Lebanese-French relations and the efforts undertaken by Paris to support Lebanon in all sectors were discussed. It was also agreed to continue talks during Le Drian's expected visit to Lebanon very soon.

Pope Francis meets Al-Absi, Heads of Eastern Catholic Churches
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Greek Catholic Melkite Patriarch of Antioch and All the East, Youssef Al-Absi, participated in the works of the general assembly devoted to discussing liturgical issues during the Synod of Eastern Churches, with the heads of the Eastern Catholic Churches in the world.
Al-Absi also met His Holiness Pope Francis, alongside all the participants, where he raised with the Pope the current situation in the region and the Papal initiative. They discussed the moral support that the Vatican City can provide to get the region and Lebanon out of its vicious circle, a matter that was highlighted during the visit of the Vatican official and his meetings with Lebanese leaders, which Al-Absi had missed due to being outside Lebanon.

Geagea re-nominates Bou Assi for Baabda's Maronite Seat: Mar Mikhael agreement ruined Lebanon, dragged it hell
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Lebanese Forces Party Chief, Samir Geagea, announced from Maarab today that the Party’s candidate for the Maronite seat in Baabda shall be MP Pierre Bou Assi, stressing on the significance of Baabda in determining Lebanon’s wellbeing. “Baabda today is not fine, and therefore all of Lebanon, with its state, institutions, economy and people, is not well…It is as simple as that, and history is witness to this," Geagea said. “There is a huge hegemony project that can be stopped by a small piece of paper in the ballot box on May 15,” he emphasized, deeming that that the “Mar Mikhael” agreement has wreaked havoc in Lebanon, dragging it to hell. “The Lebanon we want is the real Lebanon that will return through the votes of its people in the parliamentary elections…and from Baabda in particular, for this responsibility rests with the people of Baabda before all others, since it is from this region that the militias reached an understanding with the corrupt and carried out the largest fraud operation against the people throughout history, which brought Lebanon to hell…and from Baabda in particular begins the process of accountability and change," the LF Chief maintained. He therefore urged the Lebanese to vote for a ‘Strong Republic’ because “Lebanon needs each one of you, and because together we are able to save our country, achieve the dream and make the desired change,” adding that the voice of each and every citizen will help restore the decision to the state and its institutions.
In turn, Bou Assi hoped that everyone would participate in the electoral process, "based on a clear political choice that will have a direct impact on the fate of the country." "Despair and frustration are the gifts that the enemies of our country await, while Lebanon's sovereignty, pluralism, democracy, impartiality, stability and prosperity are the gifts that our children and grandchildren aspire for...,” he said. “We are on a date together towards a return to identity and roots, and towards aspiration to a brighter future…our date together is on May 15,” Bou Assi underscored.

Makhzoumi launches electoral campaign: Beirut needs a heart
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
National Dialogue Party Head, MP Fouad Makhzoumi, launched his electoral campaign today under the headline: "Beirut needs a Heart". Makhzoumi declared that his campaign comes in light of his "keenness on Beirut" and his ability to "overturn the equation," in addition to "the capital's need for a brave, authentic and courageous heart that shares a mutual devotion for the city and its people, and a representative who can work to stop waste and corruption."

ISF Director General meets US Assistant State Secretary for Diplomatic Security at Martyr Al-Hassan Barracks
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
The Internal Security Forces General Directorate - Public Relations Department issued a statement on Saturday, in which it indicated that "on the occasion of the visit of the US Assistant Secretary of State for Diplomatic Security, Gentry Smith, to Lebanon, the ISF Director-General received him and the accompanying delegation at noon today, 19/2/ 2022, at the barracks of Martyr Major General Wissam Al-Hassan in Dbayeh, in presence of the Commander of the Vehicle Forces Unit, Brigadier General Jihad Al-Hoayek, and a number of security forces officers."
The statement added that after welcoming the delegation, a number of officers from different sectors gave presentations on the impact of aid, donations, and training provided within the Anti-Terrorism Program (ATA).
"The delegation also had a look at some of the vehicles, equipment, and weapons provided by the United States of America, which are used by the Internal Security Forces during the execution of the tasks assigned to them," the statement added.

Jumblatt: I suggest investing depositors' money in the drone sector
NNA/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Progressive Socialist Party Chief, Walid Jumblatt, tweeted today saying: "The plan for advancement with the International Monetary Fund is becoming clear, and senior advisors from the Lebanese team have recommended adopting the Lebanese Lira and investing it in national companies such as Electricité du Liban, the role model of success…I suggest investing the depositors' money in the locally-manufactured drones or missiles or explosives’ sector, for its has a better return!"

Geagea on Hizbullah Drone: Shameful to Put Lebanon in Danger
Naharnet/Saturday, 19 February, 2022 
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Saturday criticized Hizbullah for sending the ‘Hassan’ drone deep into Israel, saying such a move pushes Lebanon into “impending dangers.”“The Lebanon we want is not the Lebanon of drones and it shameful to push Lebanon into impending dangers as is happening today,” Geagea said at a ceremony to announce the re-nomination of MP Pierre Bou Assi for one of the Maronite seats in Baabda. “The Lebanon we want is the Lebanon of dignity, freedom, culture, prosperity, peace, openness and art,” the LF leader added. He also lashed out at President Michel Aoun without naming him. “If Baabda is fine Lebanon is fine, and today because Baabda is not fine, entire Lebanon and its economy and security are not fine,” Geagea said. “The more Baabda cedes Lebanon’s decision to hegemony, the more Lebanon will deteriorate, and this is what is happening today,” he added.
“You have turned Lebanon into hell due to your agreements, failure and deals… The Mar Mikhail Agreement destroyed Lebanon and took it to hell and Lebanon’s people shall not kneel and will stand in the face of this black project,” Geagea stressed.

Berri Calls on Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union to Adopt Lebanese-Gulf Dialogue
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has called on the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union conference, which is holding its 32nd session in Cairo, to help start a Lebanese dialogue with the Arab Gulf states under the auspices of the State of Kuwait. Moreover, Berri announced “Lebanon’s reservations about the report of the Political Committee of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union Conference, entitled “Arab Solidarity.” He said in an intervention: “We meet in this conference under the title “Arab Solidarity”, but where is the solidarity in this report? Where is the Arab common market? This market was established by the Arabs before the European Common Market. Where is Europe today, and where are the Arabs now?”Berri asked: Where is the solidarity in confronting terrorism? I suggest more Arab coordination in this field, with Cairo being the place for coordination. He called for “the necessity of the Arab Parliamentary Union conference to start a Lebanese dialogue with the Arab Gulf states under the auspices of the State of Kuwait.”Berri asked the Arab League for Syria’s return to the League without hesitation, calling on “the Palestinians to take the initiative to achieve the Palestinian-Palestinian reconciliation under Egyptian auspices.”The Arab Parliament Union had concluded its work in a session interspersed with the recitation of the report of the Political Committee for the decisions and included a number of recommendations, including one that approached the Lebanese issue and stated: “The Arab Parliamentary Union declares solidarity with the brotherly Lebanese people in light of the financial and economic crisis they are currently experiencing in order to restoring its health and stability and restoring normal life to its institutions in order to preserve its sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Tensions tail off in Lebanon after Hezbollah-Israel drone stand-off
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 20, 2022
BEIRUT: Tensions between Hezbollah and Israel tailed off on Saturday after a drone was launched on a 40-minute, 70-kilometer reconnaissance mission into Israeli airspace on Friday. It returned to Lebanon as the Israeli Iron Dome failed to down it. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching the “Hassan” drone on Friday and said it carried out its reconnaissance mission over the targeted area despite all attempts to intercept it. In retaliation, two Israeli warplanes violated Beirut airspace, flying at a low altitude. Israeli news outlets quoted an Israeli army official as saying: “The Israeli response to the Hezbollah drone was exaggerated,” noting that the response achieved the object Hezbollah was aiming for when it boasted about manufacturing drones. Israel had downed a Hezbollah drone that infiltrated its airspace on Thursday. The Lebanese authorities took no official stance in response to the Israeli violation of Beirut’s airspace, which caused panic among residents since the planes flew very low.
Retired Lebanese Armed Forces Brig. Gen. Hisham Jaber told Arab News: “What happened over the past couple of days can be summarized according to military science as ‘show off your strength so you would not have to use it’.”Jaber said Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Wednesday about manufacturing drones did not reveal any new information. “The Israeli enemy knew about this but was not sure it was true. The drone that escaped the Iron Dome was not a combat drone, but rather a recon drone; that’s not enough to start a war,” he said.
“I do not believe the recent escalation would lead to Hezbollah carrying out any military action on the southern border, because it has no interest in striking the first blow; whoever does so must bear full responsibility for the repercussions.”
Jaber said: “Hezbollah will not violate the status quo unless Israel does so first. Meanwhile, Israel will not carry out any aggression now, because the US has previously prevented it from attacking Iran since all Iranian wings in Syria and Lebanon would respond. In addition, Israel’s friend Russia, which is present in Syria, will not allow such an escalation.”
Lebanese newspapers criticized “the absence of an official Lebanese position regarding recent developments and Nasrallah’s Wednesday speech.” Some opposition newspapers wrote that Hezbollah has stripped the state of all strategic powers in deciding the country’s fate.
Nasrallah had boasted on Wednesday about “the resistance having the capability to convert its missiles into precision missiles. He said: “In Lebanon, for a long time, we have started to manufacture drones. Whoever wants to buy them can place an order.”
Hezbollah MP Ali Fayyad said on Saturday: “The resistance’s strength and deterrence power, be it by land, sea or air, will force the Israelis to retreat. "The balance of power is tilting day after day in favor of the resistance because the enemy is unable to adapt to its rules and logic.”
Walid Jumblatt, head of the Progressive Socialist Party, tweeted on Saturday: “I suggest investing the depositors’ money in locally made drones, missiles or explosives, as they have better returns for Lebanon.”
Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces Party, spoke of the recent developments during the announcement of his party’s candidates for the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Geagea said: “The Lebanon we want is not the Lebanon of illegitimate drones. It is not the Lebanon of mines and assassinations. The Lebanon that we want is the Lebanon of development, progress, science and success.”He believed that the alliance forged between President Michel Aoun’s team and Hezbollah “has destroyed Lebanon, brought hell upon it, and yet they are still shamelessly carrying on with their agreement as if nothing had happened.”Geagea mocked those who defend such an agreement and claim it has spared Lebanon civil war.“I never understood this. Are they saying either we proceed according to Hezbollah’s wishes, or it wages a civil war against us? This logic is unacceptable, and no one can subdue anyone in Lebanon,” he said.

Horrors of the Beirut port explosion described in new book
Benjamin Weinthal/Jerusalem Post/February 19/2022
The book dissects the horrors after Hezbollah explosives destroyed much of the city.
The Lebanese literature professor Charif Majdalani has penned an elegant and intensely personal account of the economic and political meltdown of his country. The contrast between the rich, even opulent language he employs (translated from the French into English by Ruth Diver) and the onerous struggles of his family and of ordinary Lebanese is a stark one. Majdalani’s entry about the August 4, 2020 blast at the Beirut port, which killed 218 people and wounded more than 7,000 others, is breathtaking. “Suddenly the floor begins to move with incredible violence, accompanied by a sort of hideous roar. I’m petrified as I feel the terrace come and go beneath me like an old swing and I think it’s obviously an earthquake.”The massive explosion caused by the storage of ammonium nitrate, allegedly by the Lebanese terrorist movement Hezbollah, left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and caused more than $15 billion in property damage. The book is a no-holds-barred reckoning with a fundamentally corrupt political system, which is now controlled by Hezbollah, in a country where the “unreliable electricity supply” is a recurring theme, weaving its way through the diary against the background of Lebanon’s mountains and the cedar trees that blanket the country.
He engages in a ruthless criticism of the Lebanese politician Gen. Michael Aoun from a Maronite Christian family, Walid Kamal Jumblatta, Lebanese Druze politician and the Lebanese Shi’ite parliament speaker Nabih Berri for their creation of a mafia state that benefits a ruling class at the expense of ordinary Lebanese. Majdalani has a keen literary eye for details. He reports on graffiti that reads: “The government is trying to overthrow the people.” The dire protests of the Lebanese against rotating new governments remind the reader of the German playwright Bertolt Brecht’s poem “The Solution,” about the uprising of 1953 against the East German communist government, where he writes of workers’ protests against Stalinist repression:
“Would it not in that case be easier for the government To dissolve the people And elect another?”
Just as East Germany had the totalitarian Socialist Unity Party, aka the East German Communist Party, Lebanon has its own version – and it is called the Party of God, or Hezbollah. “And among those parties is the most dangerous one of all, Hezbollah, the only party that is still armed, on the pretext of fighting the Israeli occupation of the southern provinces where there have been no Israeli troops for 15 years but in fact so that the party can be used as an instrument of pressure and destabilization in Syrian and Iranians hands,” writes Majdalani.
He adds in a July 24, 2020, entry: “Yesterday, Hezbollah claimed an attack against Israel soldiers. Everyone tends to think that the Shi’ite party might provoke a war and complete the devastation of what is left of the country in order to save its own stake and that of Syrian-Iranian axis.”
One small quibble I have with Majdalani’s fine book is that his Francophilia does not allow for any criticism of Paris’s long-standing support for Hezbollah. French President Emmanuel Macron has met with a Hezbollah politician in Lebanon – thereby helping to mainstream the party that has been designated a terrorist entity by the US, Canada, the Gulf Cooperation Council, Israel, Germany, Japan, Austria, the Arab League, and many additional European and Latin American countries.
France has blocked a full designation of the entirety of Hezbollah’s structure as a terrorist organization by the EU. As a result, the organization can continue to garner financing on French soil and in other parts of Europe, under the fiction of having separate civilian and military wings.
One ingenious part of Majdalani’s diary is to include a kind of diary within his diary. He includes pages on his wife Nayla’s self-directed therapy sessions with herself. Titled “My therapy with my myself,” he uses extracts from her work as a therapist with herself as a form of a talking cure.
After the Beirut explosion, Nayla stopped her self-therapy. Majdalani expresses a kind of awe for the Lebanese volunteers who sought to clean up and rebuild Beirut after the mass explosion. The combination of the explosion, the COVID-19 pandemic and the bottomless pit of economic and political corruption from the Hezbollah-controlled political system helps to explain why Majdalani’s 2020 Diary of the Collapse has continued into 2022. The future remains desperately bleak for Lebanon. Sadly.
Beirut 2020: Diary of the Collapse/By Charif Majdalani/Other Press/192 pages; $14.99

L'occupation elle-même est une tragédie. Mais le fait que cette occupation mette en danger le Liban est un double drame
Jean-Marie Kassab/19 février 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106439/%d8%ac%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%83%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a7%d8%ad%d8%aa%d9%84%d8%a7%d9%84-%d8%a8%d8%ad%d8%af-%d8%b0%d8%a7%d8%aa%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%a3%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%a9/
Un grand merci à l’aviation israélienne pour son show bruyant hier vendredi matin. Un immense merci d’avoir rappelé à la mémoire de ceux qui avaient oublié que nous sommes occupés par l’Iran. Eh oui, employés qu’ils sont aux élections et les dividendes personnels qui s’ensuivraient, ces dames et messieurs avaient simplement négligé ce glaive qui plane sur nos têtes à cause de l’occupation iranienne. Et quel glaive !!! Ce danger sans pareil qui nous menace quand l’Iran, à travers ses brigades locales dénommées Hezbollah, s’amuse à défier une des plus grandes et les plus meurtrières armées du monde.
Ouï bien sûr, un siège de plus à Beyrouth, une liste bien fignolée au nord écartera d’un coup l’occupation Iranienne. Bravo les ahuris des élections. Triste gens.
Les hommes et femmes qui vaquaient à leurs occupations et gagnent déjà très difficilement leur vie, les enfants terrorisés par le boucan des avions, s’en foutent royalement des théories complotistes qui sortent par-ci par-là . Ils veulent oublier le tonnerre de l’explosion du port brutalement ramené à leur esprit : Ils veulent simplement vivre en paix. La PAIX, ça vous dit quelque chose ??
Etre occupés est en lui-même un drame. Mais que cette occupation mette en plus en danger le Liban est une double tragédie insoutenable. Unique au monde entier.
Le Liban est occupé par l’Iran et est en danger de mort brutale de ce fait puisque les Iraniens veulent rendre notre pays un théâtre de guerre.
Task Force Lebanon ne se laissera pas faire. Patience…
Vive le Liban
Vive la Résistance
Jean-Marie Kassab
Task Force Lebanon

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 19-20/2022
Ukraine leader proposes meeting with Putin
The Associated Press, Moscow/Published: 19 February ,2022
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, facing a sharp spike in violence in and around territory held by Russia-backed rebels and increasingly dire warnings that Russia plans to invade, on Saturday called for Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him and seek resolution to the crisis. “I don't know what the president of the Russian Federation wants, so I am proposing a meeting,” Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference, where he also met with US Vice President Kamala Harris. Zelensky said Russia could pick the location for the talks. “Ukraine will continue to follow only the diplomatic path for the sake of a peaceful settlement.”There was no immediate response from the Kremlin. Zelensky spoke hours after separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine ordered a full military mobilization on Saturday while Western leaders made increasingly dire warnings that a Russian invasion of its neighbor appeared imminent. In new signs of fears that a war could start within days, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine. Violence in eastern Ukraine has spiked in recent days as Ukraine and the two regions held by the rebels each accused the other of escalation. Russia on Saturday said at least two shells fired from a government-held part of eastern Ukraine landed across the border, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba dismissed that claim as “a fake statement.”

Putin launches nuclear drills as US says Russia poised to invade Ukraine
Reuters/19 February ,2022
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched exercises by strategic nuclear missile forces on Saturday and Washington said Russian troops massed near Ukraine’s border were “poised to strike.”As Western nations fear the start of one the worst conflicts since the Cold War, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said Russian forces were beginning to “uncoil and move closer” to the border with its former Soviet neighbour. “We hope he steps back from the brink of conflict,” he told a news conference on a visit to Lithuania, saying an invasion of Ukraine was not inevitable. Russia ordered the military build-up while demanding NATO stop Ukraine ever joining the alliance but says predictions it is planning to invade Ukraine are wrong and dangerous. It says it is now pulling back while Washington and allies insist the build-up is mounting. Russian-backed separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine earlier declared a full military mobilization, a day after ordering women and children to evacuate to Russia, citing the threat of an imminent attack by Ukrainian forces. Kyiv flatly denied the accusation and Washington said it was part of Russia’s plan to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine. Multiple explosions could be heard on Saturday morning in the north of the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a Reuters witness said. The origin was not immediately clear. Ukraine said earlier that one of its soldiers had been killed. US President Joe Biden, who has given regular warnings of an impending invasion, said on Friday he now believes the capital Kyiv would be targeted by Russia but that he does not think Putin is even remotely contemplating using nuclear weapons. “We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days,” Biden told reporters at the White House. “As of this moment, I am convinced that he has made the decision.”The exercises by Russia’s nuclear forces on Saturday involve the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles, the defense ministry said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the exercises were part of a regular training process and Putin was likely to take part from a “situation center.”Russia’s Ria news agency quoted the Kremlin on Saturday as saying the exercises had started.

Ukraine Rebels Mobilize Troops amid Russia Invasion Fears
Associated Press/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine ordered a full military mobilization Saturday amid a spike of violence in the war-torn region and fears in the West that Russia might use the strife as a pretext for an invasion.
Denis Pushilin, the head of the pro-Russia separatist government in Ukraine's Donetsk region, released a statement announcing a full troop mobilization and urging reservists to show up at military enlistment offices. A similar announcement quickly followed from Leonid Pasechnik, separatist leader in the Luhansk region. Pushilin cited "immediate threat of aggression" from Ukrainian forces, accusations that Ukrainian officials vehemently denied earlier. The separatists and Ukrainian forces have been fighting for almost eight years. But the violence along the line of contact separating the two sides, including a car bombing in the eastern city of Donetsk and a humanitarian convoy hit by shelling, has risen in recent days. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops now posted around Ukraine's borders, the long-simmering separatist conflict could provide the spark for a broader attack. On Friday, the rebels began evacuating civilians from the conflict zone with an announcement that appeared to be part of their and Moscow's efforts to paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead. In an ominous assessment, U.S. President Joe Biden said he was now "convinced" Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and assault the capital, Kyiv.
Biden, who for weeks had said the U.S. was not sure if Putin had made the final decision, said his judgment had changed, citing American intelligence. "As of this moment, I'm convinced he's made the decision," Biden said. "We have reason to believe that." He reiterated that the assault could occur in the "coming days." Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced that it would conduct massive nuclear drills Saturday, and Putin pledged to protect Russia's national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats. Biden reiterated his threat of crushing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade, and pressed Putin to reconsider. He said the U.S. and its Western allies were more united than ever to ensure Russia pays a steep price for any invasion. As further indication that the Russians were preparing for a major military push, a U.S. defense official said an estimated 40% to 50% of the ground forces deployed in the vicinity of the Ukrainian border have moved into attack positions closer to the border.
The shift has been underway for about a week, other officials have said, and does not necessarily mean Putin has decided to begin an invasion. The defense official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal U.S. military assessments.
The official also said the number of Russian ground units known as battalion tactical groups in the border area had grown to as many as 125, up from 83 two weeks ago. Each group has 750 to 1,000 soldiers. Lines of communication remain open: the U.S. and Russian defense chiefs spoke Friday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week. Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting the pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.
Fears of such escalation intensified amid Friday's violence. A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the rebel-held city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there. The head of the separatist forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported. There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast. Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities. Adding to the tensions, two explosions shook the rebel-controlled city of Luhansk early Saturday. The Luhansk Information Center said one of the blasts was in a natural gas main and cited witnesses as saying the other was at a vehicle service station. There was no immediate word on injuries or a cause. Luhansk officials blamed a gas main explosion earlier in the week on sabotage. Overall, monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe reported more than 600 explosions in the war-torn east of Ukraine on Friday. Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine's industrial heartland known as the Donbas announced they were evacuating civilians to Russia.
Pushilin, the head of the Donetsk rebel government, said women, children and the elderly would go first, and that Russia has prepared facilities for them. Pushilin alleged in a video statement that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was going to order an imminent offensive in the area. Metadata from two videos posted by the separatists announcing the evacuation show that the files were created two days ago, The Associated Press confirmed. U.S. authorities have alleged that the Kremlin's disinformation campaign could include staged, prerecorded videos. Authorities began moving children from an orphanage in Donetsk, and other residents boarded buses for Russia. Long lines formed at gas stations as more people prepared to leave on their own. Putin ordered the government to offer a payment of 10,000 rubles (about $130) to each evacuee, equivalent to about half of an average monthly salary in the war-ravaged Donbas region. By Saturday morning, more than 6,600 residents of the rebel-controlled areas were evacuated to Russia, according to separatist officials, who have announced plans to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people. The explosions and the announced evacuations were in line with U.S. warnings of so-called false-flag attacks that Russia could use to justify an invasion. Around the volatile line of contact, a United Nations humanitarian convoy came under rebel shelling in the Luhansk region, Ukraine's military chief said. No casualties were reported. Rebels denied involvement and accused Ukraine of staging a provocation.
Ukraine denied planning any offensive.
"We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the threat to global security is "more complex and probably higher" than during the Cold War. He told a security conference in Munich that a small mistake or miscommunication between major powers could have catastrophic consequences. Russia announced this week that it was pulling back forces from vast military exercises, but U.S. officials said they saw no sign of a pullback and instead observed more troops moving toward the border with Ukraine. In other developments, the White House and the U.K. formally blamed Russia for recent cyberattacks targeting Ukraine's defense ministry and major banks. The announcement was the most pointed attribution of responsibility for the intrusions, which barraged websites with junk data to make them unreachable. Russia rejected the accusations. The Kremlin sent a reminder to the world of its nuclear might, announcing drills of its nuclear forces for the weekend. Putin will monitor the exercise Saturday that will involve multiple practice missile launches. Asked about Western warnings of a possible Russian invasion on Wednesday that did not materialize, Putin said: "There are so many false claims, and constantly reacting to them is more trouble than it's worth.""We are doing what we consider necessary and will keep doing so," he said. "We have clear and precise goals conforming to national interests."

Biden is 'Convinced' Putin Has Decided to Invade Ukraine
Associated Press/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
U.S. President Joe Biden has said that he is "convinced" Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, including an assault on the capital, as tensions spiked along the country's militarized line with attacks that the West said could be "false-flag" operations meant to establish a pretext for invasion. A humanitarian convoy was hit by shelling, and pro-Russian rebels evacuated civilians from the conflict zone. A car bombing hit the eastern city of Donetsk, but no casualties were reported. After weeks of saying the U.S. wasn't sure if Putin had made the final decision to invade, Biden said that assessment had changed, citing American intelligence. "As of this moment I'm convinced he's made the decision," Biden said. "We have reason to believe that." He reiterated that the assault could occur in the "coming days."Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced massive nuclear drills to flex its military muscle, and Putin pledged to protect Russia's national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats. Biden reiterated his threat of massive economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade, and pressed Putin to rethink his course of action. He said the U.S. and its Western allies were more united than ever to ensure Russia pays a price for the invasion. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops posted around Ukraine's borders, U.S. and European officials warn that the long-simmering separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine could provide the spark for a broader attack. As further indication that the Russians are preparing for a potential invasion, a U.S. defense official said an estimated 40% to 50% of the ground forces deployed in the vicinity of the Ukrainian border have moved into attack positions nearer the border. That shift has been under way for about a week, other officials have said, and does not necessarily mean Putin has decided to begin an invasion. The defense official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal U.S. military assessments.
The official also said the number of Russian ground units known as battalion tactical groups deployed in the border area had grown to as many as 125, up from 83 two weeks ago. Each battalion tactical group has 750 to 1,000 soldiers. Lines of communication remain open: The U.S. and Russian defense chiefs spoke Friday, and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called for de-escalation, the return of Russian forces surrounding Ukraine to their home bases and a diplomatic resolution, according to the Pentagon. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week. Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people. A bombing struck a car outside the main government building in the major eastern city of Donetsk, according to an Associated Press journalist there. The head of the separatist forces, Denis Sinenkov, said the car was his, the Interfax news agency reported. There were no reports of casualties and no independent confirmation of the circumstances of the blast. Uniformed men inspected the burned-out car. Shelling and shooting are common along the line that separates Ukrainian forces and the rebels, but targeted violence is unusual in rebel-held cities like Donetsk. However, the explosion and the announced evacuations were in line with U.S. warnings of so-called false-flag attacks that Russia would use to justify an invasion. Adding to the tensions, two explosions shook the rebel-controlled city of Luhansk early Saturday. The Luhansk Information Center said one of the blasts was in a natural gas main and cited witnesses as saying the other was at a vehicle service station. There was no immediate word on injuries or a cause. Luhansk officials blamed a gas main explosion earlier in the week on sabotage.
Separatists in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions that form Ukraine's industrial heartland known as the Donbas said they are evacuating civilians to Russia. The announcement appeared to be part of Moscow's efforts to counter Western warnings of a Russian invasion and to paint Ukraine as the aggressor instead. Denis Pushilin, head of the Donetsk rebel government, said women, children and the elderly would go first, and that Russia has prepared facilities for them. Pushilin alleged in a video statement that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was going to order an imminent offensive in the area.
Metadata from two videos posted by the separatists announcing the evacuation show that the files were created two days ago, The Associated Press confirmed. U.S. authorities have alleged that the Kremlin's disinformation campaign could include prerecorded videos.
Authorities began moving children from an orphanage in Donetsk, and other residents boarded buses for Russia. Long lines formed at gas stations as more people prepared to leave on their own. Putin ordered his emergencies minister to fly to the Rostov region bordering Ukraine to help organize the exodus and ordered the government to offer a payment of 10,000 rubles (about $130) to each evacuee, equivalent to about half of an average monthly salary in the war-ravaged Donbas.
Ukraine denied planning any offensive.
"We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution only," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted. Around the volatile line of contact, a United Nations humanitarian convoy came under rebel shelling in the Luhansk region, Ukraine's military chief said. No casualties were reported. Rebels denied involvement and accused Ukraine of staging a provocation. Separatist authorities reported more shelling by Ukrainian forces along the line. A surge of shelling Thursday tore through the walls of a kindergarten, injuring two, and basic communications were disrupted. Both sides accused each other of opening fire. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the threat to global security is "more complex and probably higher" than during the Cold War. He told the Munich conference that a small mistake or miscommunication between major powers could have catastrophic consequences. Russia announced this week that it was pulling back forces from vast military exercises, but U.S. officials said they saw no sign of a pullback — and instead saw more troops moving toward the border with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the White House and the U.K. formally accused Russia of being responsible for recent cyberattacks targeting Ukraine's defense ministry and major banks. The announcement was the most pointed attribution of responsibility for the cyber intrusions. Also Friday, the U.S. government released new estimates of how many military personnel Russia has in and around Ukraine. It said there are between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel, up from about about 100,000 on Jan. 30, according to Michael Carpenter, the permanent U.S. representative to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The new estimate includes military troops along the border, in Belarus and in occupied Crimea, as well as Russian National Guard and other internal security units, and Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine. The separatists inside Ukraine, the National Guard and troops in Crimea were not included in the previous U.S. estimate of 150,000. The Kremlin sent a reminder to the world of its nuclear might, announcing drills of its nuclear forces for the weekend. Putin will monitor the sweeping exercise Saturday that will involve multiple practice missile launches. Asked about Western warnings of a possible Russian invasion on Wednesday that didn't materialize, Putin said: "There are so many false claims, and constantly reacting to them is more trouble than it's worth.""We are doing what we consider necessary and will keep doing so," he said. "We have clear and precise goals conforming to national interests."

Saudi Foreign Minister: We are looking forward to a fifth round of talks with Iran
"Reuters/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
During his speech at the Munich Security Conference, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said: "We are looking forward to a fifth round of talks with Iran despite the lack of substantial progress in previous rounds." He expressed his hope that there would be a serious desire by Iran to find a new way to work in the region, noting that "the Iran nuclear agreement should be a starting point, not an end point," stressing that Saudi Arabia "is committed to working with its partners to ensure market stability," according to "Reuters" agency.

'Moment of Truth' for Iran Nuclear Talks, Germany Says
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
The chances of reviving the Iran nuclear accord are dwindling and the "moment of truth" has arrived for Tehran's leadership, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Saturday. "We now have the chance to reach an agreement that will allow sanctions to be lifted. But if we do not succeed very quickly, the negotiations risk failing," Scholz told the Munich Security Conference. "The Iranian leadership has a choice. Now is the moment of truth."

Advocacy Group: US Firm's Tanker Illicitly Traded Iran Oil
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
A tanker owned by a Los Angeles-based private equity firm likely took part in the illicit trade of Iranian crude oil at sea despite American sanctions targeting Iran, an advocacy group alleges. The firm said Thursday it is cooperating with US government investigators.
The group United Against Nuclear Iran raised its allegations in a letter dated Tuesday to Oaktree Capital Management, which holds assets worth over $160 billion. Satellite images and maritime tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press correspond to the group's identification of the vessels allegedly involved and showed them side-by-side off the coast of Singapore on Saturday. The alleged oil transfer comes as world powers and Iran negotiate in Vienna over restoring the nuclear deal. That accord saw Tehran drastically limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions — including those targeting its crucial oil sales. But Iran even under American sanctions claims to be selling billions of dollars more of crude than before, likely buoyed by energy prices rising to their highest point in years amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis. That makes the sales even more lucrative and increases the challenge of enforcing sanctions if the Vienna talks collapse. In a statement to the AP, Oaktree subsidiary Fleetscape — which owns the oil tanker Suez Rajan — said it is “committed to using best practices in its operations and complying with US sanctions laws.”“We take any allegation of non-compliance very seriously and are cooperating fully with the US authorities to conduct a thorough investigation into this matter,” Fleetscape said. The company did not elaborate. The US State Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The US Treasury, which investigates and enforces sanctions, declined to comment. Satellite-tracking data from MarineTraffic.com analyzed by the AP showed the Marshall Island-flagged Suez Rajan in the South China Sea off the northeast of Singapore on Saturday. That data also shows the Panamanian-flagged oil tanker Virgo in the same area. Satellite photos from Planet Labs PBC of that area obtained by the AP appear to show the ships alongside each other. At sea, oil tankers can funnel crude between each other in a ship-to-ship transfer that typically sees boats in a similar position.
In separate Planet Labs satellite images from Jan. 16, the Virgo appears to be loading crude oil from Iran's Khargh Island, its main oil distribution terminal in the Arabian Gulf. Tracking data separately shows the vessel near Khargh around that time before heading to Singapore. United Nations records show the Virgo's owners as a company out of Suriname, which could not be immediately reached for comment. Iran's mission to the United Nations also did not respond to a request for comment. Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers saw it regain the ability to sell oil openly on the international market. But in 2018, then-President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the accord and re-imposed American sanctions. That slammed the door on much of Iran's lucrative crude oil trade, a major engine for its economy and its government. But in recent months, Iranian officials have been suggesting they've been able to sell crude oil anyway around American sanctions. The Central Bank of Iran issued statistics at the start of February suggesting it made $18.6 billion in oil sales in the first half of this Persian year, as opposed to $8.5 billion the same period last year, according to the state-run IRAN newspaper. Much of that oil is believed to be heading to China, some through similar ship-to-ship transfers that United Against Nuclear Iran believes took place with the Suez Raja this week. Venezuela also has received Iranian tankers to its ports. Iran is “dependent on the international shipping industry for imports of sensitive technology and industrial goods as well as oil and petrochemical exports needed to fund” its nuclear program, the New York-based United Against Nuclear Iran said in its letter to Oaktree Capital. The US government also has said Iranian oil sales revenue funds the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard's Quds Force, an expeditionary unit believed to be working abroad in countries like Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen to back Iranian-allied militias.

US Proposes Strategy Based on ‘Pressuring' Houthis to End Yemen Crisis
Washington - Muath Alamri/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
The United States has reiterated its strategy in dealing with the Yemeni crisis by suggesting two ways to end the conflict. Washington wants to "pressure" the Houthi group and support "international efforts," including UN Resolution 2216, while it continues to call for ending the conflict and delivering aid.
The US efforts and diplomatic moves to resolve the conflict in Yemen come amid several "indications" that Washington and Tehran are close to reaching an agreement in the ongoing discussions on the "nuclear negotiations" in Vienna to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
This has prompted several politicians and observers in the US to demand punishing the Iran-backed Houthis and putting it back on the list of terrorist organizations. National Security Council spokeswoman Emily Horne said in a White House statement that the Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, discussed during his visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE the need to combine pressure on the Houthis in Yemen with a concerted UN-led effort to end the war there. Horne said that McGurk stressed during his visit to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that Washington is doing everything possible to support both countries' "territorial defense" against Iranian-enabled missile and UAV attacks. McGurk reaffirmed President Joe Biden's commitment to "supporting the defense of US partners" and reviewed ongoing efforts with diplomatic and military teams in both capitals. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed deep concern with the uptick in civilian casualties in Yemen and the region and condemned attacks by all parties that led to an escalation in the country and extended the conflict. According to a State Department statement, Blinken stressed the "urgent need" for de-escalation and all parties to abide by their obligations under international humanitarian law. He communicated his support for the UN Special Envoy's ongoing efforts to develop an "inclusive political framework" and reiterated that "justice and accountability will be key to securing an enduring peace in Yemen." Blinken welcomed collaboration with the UN to advance a "durable resolution that ends the conflict in Yemen, improves Yemeni lives, and creates the space for Yemenis to collectively determine their own future."He reiterated that "resolving the conflict in Yemen remains a top US foreign policy priority." Furthermore, Washington-based Wilson Center called for activating the US role in resolving the Yemeni conflict, urging an end to the state of "military violence" that tore the country apart.
The Center recommended supporting US partners and allies such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE against the Houthi aggression. The former US special envoy to Iran, Brian Hook, said that removing the Houthis from the list of foreign terrorist organizations was a "strategic mistake" made by Biden's administration.
He also sees it is impossible to discuss a solution in Yemen without "dramatically reducing Iranian interference.”“If we're going to get to some sort of negotiated end-state between the Saudis and the Houthis... I don't think we're going to get there for as long as Iran benefits from an endless war." During the event, Hook reiterated that "Saudis want to end the war, but Iran would like to see an endless war," noting that it benefits Tehran enormously and now "they are testing their strength by firing... they've rained rockets and missiles and drones on Saudi [Arabia]." Hook suggested that the US "should do a better job" of minimizing Iran's interference in Yemen through the use of various policy tools. "The Houthis have no incentive to engage in talks."
The official noted that the challenge facing US policymakers is to find a way to change the dynamic through the necessary diplomatic measures, which include re-listing the Houthis, implementing the UN arms embargo on Iran, and strengthening the hand of the US special envoy to Yemen to pressure the militias to enter into serious negotiations. Hook also suggested that the Saudis appreciated the Biden administration's position on linking the Houthis to Iran and added that given the strategic interest of the US in Saudi Arabia, "it is important that we move from treating Saudi [Arabia] as a pariah state."
He cautioned against "defeatism and fatalism about the current conflict," calling for a "fresh kind of rethink" about the US policy decisions. For her part, Fatima Abu al-Asrar, a Yemeni non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, called on the international community to listen to the will of the Yemeni people, describing them as "diverse" groups who would like to return to the transition period after the Arab Spring, when there was a manifestation of trying to build a state and society together. Abu al-Asrar explained that since the outbreak of the conflict in 2014, Yemen has not been able to stop the military incursion by non-state and non-armed actors, stressing that the priority is to "push the military violence out of the lives of people on the ground" and rebuild the Yemeni state. The United Nations' attempt to gather the "Yemeni parties" again at one table is a complex matter, said the expert, noting that this may cause more tensions between them and the concerned parties. However, she suggested a comprehensive military solution against the Houthis, noting that progress in Yemen can only be achieved by "pushing the Houthis militarily."

Israeli Police Scatter Palestinian Protesters in Sheikh Jarrah Neighborhood
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
Israeli police on horseback scattered protesters Friday in the flashpoint east Jerusalem neighborhood of Sheikh Jarrah, where demonstrators poured in to support Palestinians facing eviction by Jewish settlers. The scuffles there came alongside protests elsewhere in the occupied West Bank, according to AFP. Tensions that erupted in Sheikh Jarrah last year -- as several Palestinian families faced eviction by settler groups -- in part sparked the May war between Israel and armed groups in the Gaza Strip. In Jerusalem, Palestinian men had lain prayer rugs on the asphalt of a local street and carried out Islamic prayers. Later, activists who ended up numbering in the hundreds joined them to protest the looming evictions. AFP reporters observed Israeli border police charging the protesters with horses after the activists refused to clear a road. Police described the incident as a "riot" and said "demonstrators did not listen to instructions of police".An AFP photographer observed two people being detained. However, police said no arrests were reported. Sheikh Jarrah has emerged as a symbol of Palestinian resistance against Israeli control of east Jerusalem. Israel captured east Jerusalem from Jordan in the 1967 Six-Day War and later annexed it, in a move not recognized by most of the international community. More than 200,000 Jewish Israelis live in east Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim as the capital of their future state. Abdallah Grifat, 30, said he travelled from Nazareth in northern Israel to show his support. "It's my duty as a Palestinian to stand here, with every other Palestinian who's struggling for their land," he told AFP. "We're standing for justice."Palestinians also confronted Israeli forces in Hebron -- in the southern West Bank -- and in the northern West Bank's Beita. In Beita, residents opposed to an Israeli outpost erected on village land used slingshots to hurl rocks at security forces who responded with what the army called "riot dispersal means."The army said no troops were injured. Palestinians' official news agency Wafa said 23 Palestinians were hurt. An AFP photographer was wounded by a rubber bullet fired by Israeli forces. Hamas warned on Thursday that "violation of the red lines in Sheikh Jarrah" could "prepare the atmosphere for the next explosion."

Tunisian President Extends State of Emergency
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 19 February, 2022
President Kais Saied on Friday extended Tunisia's state of emergency until Dec. 31 of this year, the official gazette said. The country has been under a state of emergency since 2015 after an attack in which several presidential guards were killed.

Canada/Statement the by G7 Foreign Ministers on Russia and Ukraine
February 19, 2022 – Munich, Germany - Global Affairs Canada
We, the G7 Foreign Ministers of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States of America and the High Representative of the European Union, remain gravely concerned about Russia’s threatening military build-up around Ukraine, in illegally annexed Crimea and in Belarus. Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified massing of military forces, the largest deployment on the European continent since the end of the Cold War is a challenge to global security and the international order.
We call on Russia to choose the path of diplomacy, to de-escalate tensions, to substantively withdraw military forces from the proximity of Ukraine’s borders and to fully abide by international commitments including on risk reduction and transparency of military activities. As a first step, we expect Russia to implement the announced reduction of its military activities along Ukraine’s borders. We have seen no evidence of this reduction. We will judge Russia by its deeds.
We took note of Russia’s latest announcements that it is willing to engage diplomatically. We underline our commitment vis-à-vis Russia to pursue dialogue on issues of mutual concern, such as European security, risk reduction, transparency, confidence building and arms control. We also reiterate our commitment to find a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the current crisis, and we urge Russia to take up the offer of dialogue through the US-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue, the NATO-Russia Council and the OSCE. We commend the Renewed OSCE European Security Dialogue launched by the Polish OSCE Chairmanship-in-Office and express our strong hope that Russia will engage in a constructive way.
Any threat or use of force to against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states goes against the fundamental principles that underpin the rules-based international order as well as the European peace and security order enshrined in the Helsinki Final Act, the Paris Charter and other subsequent OSCE declarations. While we are ready to explore diplomatic solutions to address legitimate security concerns, Russia should be in no doubt that any further military aggression against Ukraine will have massive consequences, including financial and economic sanctions on a wide array of sectoral and individual targets that would impose severe and unprecedented costs on the Russian economy. We will take coordinated restrictive measures in case of such an event.
We reaffirm our solidarity with the people of Ukraine and our support to Ukraine’s efforts to strengthen its democracy and institutions, encouraging further progress on reform. We consider it of utmost importance to help preserve the economic and financial stability of Ukraine and the well-being of its people. Building on our assistance since 2014, we are committed to contribute in close coordination with Ukraine’s authorities to support the strengthening of Ukraine’s resilience.
We reiterate our unwavering commitment to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders and territorial waters. We reaffirm the right of any sovereign state to determine its own future and security arrangements. We commend Ukraine’s posture of restraint in the face of continued provocations and efforts at destabilization.
We underline our strong appreciation and continued support for Germany’s and France’s efforts through the Normandy Process to secure the full implementation of the Minsk Agreements, which is the only way forward for a lasting political solution to the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. We acknowledge public statements by President Zelensky underlining Ukraine’s firm commitment to the Minsk agreements and his readiness to contribute constructively to the process. Ukrainian overtures merit serious consideration by Russian negotiators and by the Government of the Russian Federation. We call on Russia to seize the opportunity which Ukraine’s proposals represent for the diplomatic path.
Russia must de-escalate, and fulfil its commitments in implementing the Minsk Agreement. The increase in ceasefire violations along the line of contact in recent days is highly concerning. We condemn the use of heavy weaponry and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas, which constitute a clear violation of the Minsk agreements. We also condemn that the Russian Federation continues to hand out Russian passports to the inhabitants of the inhabitants of the non-government controlled areas of Ukraine. This clearly runs counter to the spirit of the Minsk agreements.
We are particularly worried by measures taken by the self-proclaimed “People’s Republics” which must be seen as laying the ground for military escalation. We are concerned that staged incidents could be misused as a pretext for possible military escalation. We urge Russia to use its influence over the self-proclaimed republics to encourage restraint and de-escalate.
In this context, we firmly express our support of the OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission, whose observers play a key role in de-escalation efforts. This mission must be allowed to carry out its full mandate without restrictions to its activities and freedom of movement to the benefit and security of the people in eastern Ukraine.

Canadian police use pepper spray, stun grenades in push to clear capital
Reuters, Ottawa/19 February ,2022
Canadian police on Saturday used pepper spray and stun grenades in a final push to clear the capital of trucks and demonstrators who have occupied the downtown core of Ottawa for more than three weeks to protest against pandemic restrictions. After clearing a portion of the blockade and making more than 100 arrests on Friday, 47 more arrests were made on Saturday morning as police moved quickly to disperse the main portion of the blockade in front of parliament and the prime minister’s office. “We told you to leave. We gave you time to leave. We were slow and methodical, yet you were assaultive and aggressive with officers,” police said in a statement to the truckers posted on Twitter. Police used loudspeakers to warn the crowd to disperse or face arrest. Protest organizers for the so-called Freedom Convoy said they had asked trucks to withdraw because of heavy-handed police tactics, and many trucks did exit the downtown core on Saturday. Thirty-eight vehicles have been towed, police said. Officers smashed vehicle windows to arrest people locked inside, but the overall number of protesters has dwindled dramatically compared with previous days, with a couple hundred remaining near the advancing police cordon. Some of those arrested on Saturday wore body armor and had smoke grenades and other fireworks in their bags and vehicles, police said. Some loud bangs of stun grenades were heard. People were sprayed with “a chemical irritant in an effort to stop the assaultive behavior and for officer safety,” police said. Protesters threw smoke canisters, police said. Several large trucks that have been parked in front of parliament for weeks drove away as the police approached their position. No tear gas has been used, police said. Many of the main organizers have been taken into custody, and some have reportedly left. On Saturday, organizers said on Twitter they were “hocked at the abuses of power by the law enforcement in Ottawa” and so had “asked our truckers to move from Parliament Hill to avoid further brutality.” The protest organizers said protesters had been “horse-trampled” on Friday, which police deny. “We hear your concern for people on the ground after the horses dispersed a crowd. Anyone who fell got up and walked away. We’re unaware of any injuries,” police said on Twitter. The protesters initially wanted an end to cross-border COVID-19 vaccine mandates for truck drivers, but the blockade has gradually turned into a demonstration against the government and against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. “This is our final stand... When it ends, it ends and it’s in God’s hands,” said Jeremy Glass, a protester from Shelburne, Ontario. “At the end of this, we all need to get back to unity and get rid of this division.”
The federal government said on Saturday it would provide up to C$20 million to Ottawa businesses that have suffered losses due to the blockades. After the protest crowds swelled on the three previous weekends, police set up 100 roadblocks around the downtown core on Friday to deny people access and prevent food and fuel from getting in.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 19-20/2022
د.ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون / إلى إدارة بايدن: للقضاء على الإرهاب الإيراني يجب مواجهة الملالي الحاكمين
To The Biden Admin: To Eradicate Iran's Terrorism, Confront the Ruling Mullahs
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/February 19/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106441/majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-to-the-biden-admin-to-eradicate-irans-terrorism-confront-the-ruling-mullahs-%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85/
The administration, however, then made an astonishing announcement: that it is unfreezing $29 billion to the Iranian regime, despite that Iran is still, according to the State Department, an officially designated state sponsor of terrorism.
The move is apparently part of a US effort to appease the mullahs into redoing the 2015 nuclear deal that gives Iran a glide path to having nuclear weapons. Three American negotiators have already resigned and the US is not even welcome in the room.
A recent report by the United Nations, based on the last six months of 2021, acknowledged that in Iran, "terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom there than at any time in recent history."
Even Iran's leaders have pointed to their ties with terror groups. A former general of the IRGC, Saeed Ghasemi, shared a surprising revelation in 2019 when he pointed out that the Iranian government sent agents to Bosnia to train Al Qaeda members, and that those operatives hid their identity by posing as humanitarian workers for Iran's Red Crescent Society.
One only need look into the Iranian regime's relationship with Al Qaeda to understand what a catastrophe it is to give billions of dollars to Iran's regime. Iran has reportedly had ties to Al Qaeda for nearly three decades.
Appeasing the ruling of mullahs of Iran and unfreezing billions of dollars to give them will only further empower them, increase their terrorist activities and accelerate their destabilization of the Middle East – another legacy of failure for which the Biden administration will be able to claim credit, along with the worst inflation in 40 years; the skyrocketing price of gasoline and heating oil from shutting down America's historic energy independence; more than 100,000 U.S. deaths in 2021 from fentanyl and other drugs; enriching and empowering Russia as well as Mexico's drug cartels; failing to give Ukraine adequate materiel to deter a Russian offensive or to protect itself from one, and the crowning $83 billion surrender to the Taliban terrorists of Afghanistan.
Even Iran's leaders have pointed to their ties with terror groups. A former general of the IRGC, Saeed Ghasemi, shared a surprising revelation in 2019 when he pointed out that the Iranian government sent agents to Bosnia to train Al Qaeda members, and that those operatives hid their identity by posing as humanitarian workers for Iran's Red Crescent Society. Pictured: Ghasemi in 2018.
As long as the Biden administration is surrendering to the Iranian regime and pursuing appeasement policies with the ruling mullahs, the administration's counterterrorism strategy will be ineffective and counterproductive.
The Biden administration, to its credit, recently reported the death of Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi as a national security win and a sign of success of its counterterrorism strategy.
The administration, however, then made an astonishing announcement: that it is unfreezing $29 billion to the Iranian regime, despite that Iran is still, according to the State Department, an officially designated state sponsor of terrorism.
The move is apparently part of a US effort to appease the mullahs into redoing the 2015 nuclear deal that gives Iran a glide path to having nuclear weapons. Three American negotiators have already resigned and the US is not even welcome in the room.
So long as the Iranian regime is not strongly confronted, its many terror groups will likely continue to be major threats to global peace and security. A recent report by the United Nations, based on the last six months of 2021, acknowledged that in Iran, "terrorist groups enjoy greater freedom there than at any time in recent history."
The Iranian regime supports, both militarily and financially, militias and terrorist groups around the globe. They have made "legitimate" political parties of Lebanese and Iraqi militia groups, such as Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF), respectively, in those countries' parliaments. These forces also seemingly control their countries' security and political establishments.
One only need look into the Iranian regime's relationship with Al Qaeda to understand what a catastrophe it is to give billions of dollars to Iran's regime. Iran has reportedly had ties to Al Qaeda for nearly three decades. Iran's regime, evidently viewing Al Qaeda as it does other terrorist groups -- through the prism of ideological and political opportunism – has reportedly been grooming it. From the perspective of Iran's leaders, Al Qaeda may well have seemed an invaluable non-state terrorist group that could help Iran accomplish four of its main revolutionary aims: Anti-Americanism, anti-Semitism, undermining Gulf states' interests in the region, and destabilizing the Middle East so that the ruling mullahs could exploit the chaos and instability.
The Sunni-Shia division appears never to have never been an issue for the Iranian regime so long as terrorist groups, such as the Sunni Hamas, could assist the Islamic Republic in accomplishing its revolutionary aims and advancing its influence.
A convergence of interests between the Iranian regime and terrorist groups appears to have been leading to a blossoming of ties between two sides. Iran, in 2006, had already struck a deal with Al Qaeda, and used Hezbollah to provide funds, arms and explosives. Osama Bin Laden not only advised his followers to revere the Iranian regime, he also wrote that Iran was Al Qaeda's "main artery for funds, personnel and communication."
Two of Iran's institutions seem to be key in supporting terrorism and the militia groups: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its elite Quds Force.
Even Iran's leaders have pointed to their ties with terror groups. A former general of the IRGC, Saeed Ghasemi, shared a surprising revelation in 2019 when he pointed out that the Iranian government sent agents to Bosnia to train Al Qaeda members, and that those operatives hid their identity by posing as humanitarian workers for Iran's Red Crescent Society. Another Iranian official, Hossein Allahkaram, stated in addition:
"There used to be an Al-Qaeda branch in Bosnia and Herzegovina ... They were connected to us in a number of ways. Even though they were training within their own base, when they engaged in weapons training they joined us in various activities.
"Al-Qaeda members traveled to Lebanon. According to the documents, Iran provided them with "money and arms and everything they need, and offered them training in Hezbollah camps in Lebanon, in return for striking American interests in Saudi Arabia." [Emphases in article]
The first federal indictments of Al Qaeda, under the Clinton administration, also pointed to the Iranian regime's significant role in global terrorism, including participation in the 9/11 attacks on the US that killed nearly 3,000 Americans; bombing the USS Cole, an attack in which 17 were killed and 39 wounded; bombing the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), and attempting to murder a Saudi ambassador in Washington DC:
"Osama bin Laden, the defendant, and Al-Qaeda also forged alliances with the National Islamic Front in Sudan and with representatives of the government of Iran, and its associated terrorist group Hezbollah, for the purpose of working together against their perceived common enemies in the West, particularly the United States."
Ahead of the 9/11 attacks, the Iranian regime allowed Al Qaeda operatives to cross through its territory without visas or passports. Robust evidence, including a federal court ruling, found that "Iran furnished material and direct support for the 9/11 terrorists." Iran also provided funds, logistical support and ammunition to Al Qaeda leaders and sheltered several of them in exchange for the terrorist group attacking US interests.
Appeasing the ruling of mullahs of Iran and unfreezing billions of dollars to give them will only further empower them, increase their terrorist activities and accelerate their destabilization of the Middle East – another legacy of failure for which the Biden administration will be able to claim credit, along with the worst inflation in 40 years; the skyrocketing price of gasoline and heating oil from shutting down America's historic energy independence; more than 100,000 U.S. deaths in 2021 from fentanyl and other drugs; enriching and empowering Russia as well as Mexico's drug cartels; failing to give Ukraine adequate materiel to deter a Russian offensive or to protect itself from one, and the crowning $83 billion surrender to the Taliban terrorists of Afghanistan.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US foreign policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Why do Iran, 'progressives,' fear Israel, the Abraham Accords? - opinion
David M. Weinberg/Jerusalem Post/February 19/2022
Israel is becoming the lynchpin of a new regional alliance that advances peace and security.
Two weeks ago, a smorgasbord of so-called “progressive” advocacy organizations in the US called upon Congress “to reject the dangerous Abraham Accords”; those accords being the umbrella framework that thus far has wrought peace treaties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco.
The US Presbyterian Church, Progressive Democrats of America, CAIR, Jewish Voice for Peace, IfNotNow, Jews for Racial and Economic Justice, and other fringe groups kvetched that “lasting peace comes from justice, not weapons deals.”
“America must embrace a foreign policy toward Palestine/Israel that is rooted in human rights, justice and equality, and to resoundingly reject any attempts to further the Trump administration’s ‘Abraham Accords,’ including through legislation like H.R. 2748/S. 1061, the Israel Relations Normalization Act of 2021.”
“While masquerading as ‘peace’ and ‘diplomacy’, the Abraham Accords and this legislation are in fact an endorsement of arms sales and political favors between the US and authoritarian regimes – including weapons sales to the UAE and the recognition of Morocco’s illegal annexation of Western Sahara – in exchange for the sidelining of Palestinian rights,” the statement said. “We must end support for Israel’s violations of Palestinian rights and its apartheid rule.”
Prominent Muslim advocacy groups also signed the statement, including Linda Sarsour’s MPower Change, Arab Resource & Organizing Center (AROC) and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR).
The opposition to peace in the Middle East of these purportedly progressive groups, their opposition to dialogue and cooperation with Israel and their support for continued boycotts against Israel – because the recalcitrant and violent Palestinians have been left lagging behind – tells you all you need to know about the nefariousness of these “woke” American groups.
It also is instructive as to new strategic architecture that is blessedly taking root in the Middle East.
This week, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was received with royal honors in Manama by the King of Bahrain, and last week Israel signed an historic defense cooperation agreement with the kingdom that will see Israeli defense officials and naval personnel permanently stationed in Bahrain; something that literally gives Israel a forward base on Iran’s borders.
President Isaac Herzog, Bennett, and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid also have made grand visits to the United Arab Emirates. In short, the Abraham Accords have transformed the strategic architecture of the region, with Israel moving from a defensive stance against Iran and its proxies to an offensive posture that is buttressed by a network of alliances with key Arab countries.
You might even say (as The Jerusalem Post’s Seth Frantzman has argued) that Israel is at the center of a new international security order, an emerging alliance structure that spans from the US through Europe to India, aimed at combating belligerent actors in the Middle East.
THE ABRAHAM ACCORD alliances are warm friendships too, backed a discourse of genuine tolerance and ideological moderation, and decorated with symbols of true acceptance – such as the playing of Israel’s national anthem, “Hatikvah,” in the palaces and on the official airwaves of Sunni states.
Indeed, the Institute for Monitoring Peace and Tolerance in School Education (IMPACT-se) has found that much of the old anti-Israel material in Emirati textbooks has been moderated. Passages that previously demonized Israel, presented antisemitic conspiracies, and blamed “the Zionist enemy” for seeking to “exterminate the Palestinian people” have been removed. Passages focusing on tolerance towards Jews have been inserted instead. Especially noteworthy is the removal of passages that presented the Palestinian issue as “the basis of conflicts in the Middle East.”
“Emirati textbooks are reflective of the assessment made by Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed over a decade ago that the West is a potential ally and not a colonial threat, that radicalism is categorically wrong and self-defeating, and that Emirati prosperity in a competitive global marketplace will be built on a tolerant and peace-loving workforce,” says IMPACT-se CEO Marcus Sheff. “The curriculum also teaches students to value the principle of respect for other cultures, and encourages curiosity and dialogue, including with Israel.”
Let’s not forget the manifest people-to-people ties that are developing between Israeli and Gulf societal groups, and the exploding trade ties.
The UAE-Israel Business Council has developed into a community of over 5,000 entrepreneurs, professionals, investors, companies and government officials who regularly meet through an ever-expanding range of conferences, mixers, webinars, delegations, and in-person events. The Gulf-Israel Women’s Forum is the first association bringing together female leaders from across the Middle East. The Gulf-Israel Policy Forum brings together academics, policymakers, and cultural leaders from across the region.
In 2022, bilateral UAE-Israel trade in goods and services is expected to reach $2 billion, an increase of 50% over 2021, with significant growth in tourism, agriculture, investment, cleantech and professional services. Close to 500 Israeli companies have business dealings in the UAE, including 250 with a permanent presence or collaboration with a UAE partner.
Trade between Israel and the other Abraham Accords countries should jump this year to as much as $1 billion, with a strong uptick in trade with Egypt and Jordan, where the stigma of trading with Israel is gradually fading away – thanks to the Abraham Accords.
IN CONTRADICTION to the sour and rejectionist remarks of the American “progressive” groups mentioned above, the Abraham Accords are not a Trump-tainted gimmick or a Netanyahu-stained end-run around the Palestinians. Rather, they are an authentic breakthrough for both peace and security in the Middle East; a transformation that evinces staying power and deepens by the day.
To assert that only Trumpian razzle-dazzle and arms deals were the basis for the Abraham Accords, as do the partisan grouches mentioned above, is a complete misread of Emirati, Bahraini and Moroccan purposes in pursuit of peace with Israel. The leaders of the countries want to redefine the self-identity and global image of Arab Muslims by blending tradition with enlightenment, anchored in an admirable discourse of religious moderation and broad-mindedness.
Affiliating with Israel fits perfectly into this agenda because this is exactly how they view Israel too – as a nation that successfully synthesizes strong ethnic and religious identity with modernity. Therefore, the Abraham Accords are deeply rooted in genuine ideological intentions (as well as urgent security realties) and are locked-in for the long term.
Alas, for the hard-left and anti-Israel mob it is hard to exult in the Abraham Accords. It means swallowing the fact Israel is demonstrably a force for good, knowledge, prosperity, and stability in the Middle East. After all, that is the reason the Gulf states and Morocco are jumping on the bandwagon with Israel!
It is even harder for these extremists to accept that, de facto, the Abraham Accords are a blunt refutation of the ongoing Palestinian campaign to deny and criminalize the Jewish People’s historic rights in Israel.
By referencing the Abrahamic common heritage of Muslims and Jews in the foundational document of the Abraham Accords, and repeatedly playing “Hatikvah” in their royal palaces, Arab countries implicitly are acknowledging that Jews are a Biblical people indigenous to the Land of Israel. This is a joyous revolution that overturns generations of Arab and Islamic ideological delegitimization of Israel.
It is truly tragic that the intransigent Palestinians and their backward backers in America are unable to appreciate the gargantuan opportunities made possible by the Abraham Accords.
*The writer is a senior fellow at The Kohelet Forum and in the research department of Habithonistim: Israel’s Defense and Security Forum. His diplomatic, defense, political, and Jewish world columns over the past 25 years are archived at davidmweinberg.com.

There’s More Than Ukraine. How About a China Pivot?
John Authers/Bloomberg/February, 19/2022
I have a problem. Nothing matters to the short-term future of markets more than the situation in Ukraine. Another “risk-off” exodus from stocks to bonds as the news bleakened in Thursday’s trading makes that clear. My problem is that I don’t know what’s going to happen next there. Neither does anyone else (with the possible exception of Vladimir Putin.) Beyond suggesting that this isn’t a great time to take any big new positions in investments that are exposed to the situation, I don’t have much to say.
So here are some observations on issues that are likely to persist whatever transpires on the Ukrainian border. The last few months have seen a dramatic pivot toward a more aggressive and hawkish monetary policy by a range of western central banks. Is it possible that the People’s Bank of China is in the course of turning in the opposite direction?
That is the contention of Iain Cunningham, a portfolio manager with asset management group Ninety One, who says that Chinese policy makers “pivoted” in late 2021, and scarcely anyone noticed. To be specific:
In November last year the People’s Bank of China’s third quarter monetary policy deleted three key phrases that were in prior reports:
the valve of money supply will be properly controlled
refraining from adopting indiscriminate credit stimulus measures
maintaining implementing normal monetary policy. The removal of these hawkish statements opened the door for easing in 2022.
This week Yi Gang, the PBoC’s governor, appeared to back this argument in comments to a central banking conference. The case for a more lenient policy is bolstered, in the mind of many investors, by the ongoing problems for real estate finance. The difficulties of China Evergrande Group have left the headlines of late, for good reason. But real estate-backed high yield bonds are falling again. Their collapse, following a decade of liquidity-fueled expansion, has been spectacular.
However, there are arguments against this. China has been anxious for years to find a way to deflate its credit bubble without causing a Lehman-style disaster. It’s possible they actually mean it when they say that their policy is biased toward stability. And actions to date don’t suggest an actual pivot. Mike Howell of CrossBorder Capital in London, who I cited earlier this week, points out that there is no sign as yet of any new liquidity, once you look through the usual distortions in Chinese data caused by the Lunar New Year celebrations.
Judged by deeds rather than words, then, China seems to be still preoccupied by the task of getting its credit in order and avoiding a crisis. That at least is Howell’s contention. He said:
We have argued persistently for many months against the hope that China is about to undertake a massive policy stimulus. It is simply not going to happen, as it did in the past. “Stability” is the new watchword. The PBoC operated a relatively tight monetary stance last year and so far shows no signs of changing that in 2022. The PBoC might ease a little, on this analysis, but it won’t throw caution to the wind and deliberately inflate a new bubble, as it did in response to Lehman in 2008.
Even if this is right, and China continues to be relatively conservative, there’s still a case for Chinese investments. Simply put, the country’s equities have crashed out of favor in the last year. This is how MSCI’s China index has performed relative to the rest of the emerging markets over the last five years, in common currency terms.
We all know why China is out of favor. The clampdown on the private sector, the worsening relationship with the West, suspicions that the “zero-Covid” policy is turning into a lead weight, and the situation in Hong Kong add up to a powerful list of bear points. Even bulls on China like Cunningham accept that the picture for growth is cloudy. He said:
Yes, Chinese growth is likely to weaken further in the coming quarters but increasing action by policy makers adds to the likelihood that risk markets can look through any such domestic weakness, all else being equal. Obvious external risks to Asian markets remain in the form of extended developed market asset valuations and our expectation for faster than expected Federal Reserve tightening.
But these risks are arguably in the price. Risk premia is elevated in China and the broader Asian market, sentiment is depressed, and policy change will likely lead to a more constructive future macro and market backdrop.
Ukraine understandably monopolizes attention for now. But the chances are that everyone’s eyes will be glued to China again before long. Particularly if the PBoC does decide to get dovish, it could change the calculus for the rest of global markets, and also provide a buying opportunity in Chinese stocks for those who can stomach the governance issues.
Another trend that appears to be Ukraine-proof is the sudden ascendancy of cheap stocks. Generally when times are tough, investors look for shelter in value stocks, but they’re most concerned to find quality — companies with resilient balance sheets and reliable profitability. This time around, cheapness seems to be all that investors want. Meanwhile, there’s a revolt against expensiveness.
Patrick Palfrey of Credit Suisse Group AG illustrates this nicely. This is how the S&P 500 and the MSCI EAFE have performed so far this year, along with the performance of the most and least expensive stocks by trailing price/earnings ratio.
Moreover, value still seems to offer value. The gap between the P/Es of the most and least expensive stocks has narrowed, but remains considerably wider than the historical norm.
Meanwhile, the historical evidence is that growth stocks are a bad place to hide in a major crash. For those who are jittery, growth must seem particularly unappealing. The following numbers are from James Monroe of Investment Metrics, and show the relative performance of a range of growth factors during the Black Monday crash of 1987, the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, the Great Financial Crisis, and the Covid selloff two years ago — which is revealed to be an extreme outlier.
It’s hard to see growth stocks recover while anxiety about Ukraine, and about the Federal Reserve, remain high. And to give an idea of the market vengeance wreaked on growth stocks that aren’t cheap, this is what has happened to the market values of Meta Platforms Inc. and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF since the market hit bottom during the first Covid shutdown. There is ample chance for growth companies to recover, of course. But their market value is unlikely to do so until calm returns.

شارل الياس شرتوني: الحرب الباردة الجديدة أو التوحش السائر
La nouvelle guerre froide ou l’ “ensauvagement” en marche
Charles Elias Chartouni/19 février 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106448/106448/
“…Le ventre est encore fécond, d’où a surgi la bête immonde”, Bertold Brecht
Les contours du conflit en ukraine se précisent et sa portée va bien au delà de ses frontières et remettent en question la géopolitique de l’après guerre froide, au profit de la configuration eurasiatique qui se définit en concurrence par rapport à l‘Union Européenne. L’Ukraine est au croisement de deux mondes que la Russie n’a jamais pu réconcilier dans son histoire, celui de l’Europe et de l’Asie. On est bien loin de la fin de l’Union Soviétique en 1990, de l’effondrement de son domaine impérial, de l’envoûtement du modèle européen et de cette “maison commune” de l’Europe qui devait réunir la Russie et l’Europe, comme le souhaitait ardemment Mikhaïl Gorbatchev, le fossoyeur du communisme et de ses aires impériales. Les difficultés du projet européen dans leurs déclinaisons normative, institutionnelle, géopolitique et économique servent désormais de plateformes de contestation et de sabotage, non seulement pour régler des contentieux territoriaux mais également pour remettre en question les paradigmes de la démocratie libérale, de l’État de droit et du régime des libertés qui lui est afférent.
Il s’agit non seulement de renégocier des tracés de frontières et de créer de nouveaux États moyennant des interventions militaires relativement peu coûteuses dans le pourtour immédiat de la Russie (Géorgie, Biélorussie, Ukraine, Arménie….), mais de casser le modèle normatif de la communauté de droit qu’est l’Union Européenne, entretenir des dissidences (Hongrie, Pologne), éroder les consensus politique et normatif des démocraties libérales, et réintroduire la menace militaire au cœur du paysage stratégique en mettant au défi l’OTAN, le pacte sécuritaire transatlantique et en dévalorisant l’autonomie sécuritaire de la communauté européenne.
Le fait de projeter des scénarios d’engagement militaire à géométrie variable, allant de la guerre conventionnelle à la guerre nucléaire, nous renvoie à des schémas totalitaires et de guerre totale qu’il faut prendre au sérieux, indépendamment des dérives psychotique et paranoïaque de Poutine.
La destruction délibérée de l’Ukraine sous prétexte de sanctuarisation stratégique et militaire, relève uniquement de l’imposture et de l’esquive de mauvais aloi, en vue d’éviter les engagements diplomatiques. Poutine, ne fait en somme, que rééditer des schémas de vassalité (Biélorussie, Ukraine, Géorgie, Arménie, Serbie…) de souveraineté limitée (Finlande, États Baltes, États Scandinaves), et de conquête impériale (Pologne).
Ce qu’il qualifie d’incursion stratégique dans son soi-disant périmètre sécuritaire, n’est que le revers d’une volonté de domination qui se refuse de reconnaître à tous ces États une autonomie morale et statutaire qui leur permet de se positionner en égaux et négocier des contentieux géopolitiques. En fait, ils n’ont aucune qualité pour pouvoir négocier leur devenir géopolitique, et toute velléité en la matière se fait classifier sous la rubrique de l’interventionnisme américain, comme si cet espace géopolitique n’avait d’autres marqueurs que les emboîtements des politiques impériales russe et soviétique, et le mépris à leur endroit.
Les effets destructeurs de cet impérialisme brutal, qui n’a d’autre fin que d‘entériner des vassalités de fait, sont loin d’être restreints aux États visés de manière conjoncturelle, mais ils relèvent d’un schéma de déstabilisation qui rend compte de l’”ensauvagement”généralisé qui s’empare du monde, des clashs de civilisation et de culture et de leurs modulations géopolitiques.
La Russie, la Chine, l’Iran, la Turquie, les mouvances islamistes et leurs acolytes, essayent respectivement de remettre en question ou instrumentaliser l’ordre multilatéral de droit que les États Unis ont créé après la fin de la deuxième guerre mondiale, de promouvoir les friches politiques, et de briser les cadres réglementaires de l’économie et du commerce à l’ère globale.
Il est impératif de remettre les pendules à l’heure en matière de sécurité en se mettant en posture de guerre, de sanctions financières et économiques, et de réaffirmation des crédos libéral et démocratique dans des sociétés mises au défi dans leur raison d’être. La restructuration de l’OTAN et de l’OSCE en termes de complémentarité, la densification des réseaux d’échanges énergétique et économique au sein de l’alliance transatlantique et ses partenaires stratégiques, l’application stricte et la récapitulation des clauses protectionnistes et de conditionnalité dans les traités commerciaux, et la révision des alliances de circonstance, doivent marquer le passage d’une ère multilatérale pacifiée, à celle d’un monde multipolaire où les totalitarismes renaissants essayent d’imposer leur loi. Le conflit ukrainien n’est que la métonymie de l’”ensauvagement” en marche, et les démocraties libérales ne peuvent plus se cantonner dans l’attentisme ou le pacifisme suspect, alors que l’hydre totalitaire re-émerge sans vergogne.

Kurdistan’s warning shot
Mohammed Wani/The Arab Weekly/February 19/2022
Two weeks after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Nechirvan Barzani in Turkey to discuss supplying Turkey with Kurdish natural gas, the Iraqi Supreme Court issued an immediate ruling declaring unconstitutional the KRG oil and gas law of which had been issued by the regional parliament in 2007. But why now? Why did the judges wait no less than 15 years before raising the issue? Were they slumbering or just waiting for instructions?
These and other questions were raised by opponents of the court decision in the region. They were entitled to object to and denounce the decision and describe it as unfair and politicised. The court should have acted as soon as the law was adopted by the Kurdish parliament. At that time, it could have declared it unconstitutional. It was not supposed to stand by, then monitor Barzani’s visit to Turkey and the results of his meeting with Erdogan, before analysing and interpreting the developments according to the interests at play.
This is not the mandate of the court, but rather that of press analysts and political opponents on the alert.
Yet, this is exactly what the court did by issuing its ruling against the KRG oil and gas law. It seems that Moqtada al-Sadr realised what was going on, since he warned his supporters in a Tweet of the need to “firmly activate the oversight role of parliament so as to prevent politicised partisan or judicial interference.”There is no doubt that such politicised decisions are part of a fierce campaign waged by influential Shia political groups and militia forces within the Coordination Framework, which lost the early elections of October 10, 2021. They had realised that the tripartite alliance composed of the Kurdistan Democratic Party, led by Massoud Barzani, the Sadrist movement and the Progress Party headed by the Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi, has come close to taking control of the situation in Iraq and forming a reformist government that will restore matters to their rightful place.
The Coordination Framework did not stand idly by. Even today, it is still trying to obstruct the trilateral alliance from taking power, even if it means turning to the judicial system to seek retroactive decisions, as it has done with the KRG gas law. It may now resort to large scale force and pull down the temple on everyone’s head if necessary, as more than one member in the Framework has already threatened.
The conflict between the two sides is not over an problem of governance. It is not related to a passing political issue nor the violation of a specific agreement. It is not over compliance with the constitution or not. The showdown is existential. It is either you or us.
The Coordination Framework members know perfectly well that the process of political reform, led by Sadr, will sweep them away one by one, expose their corruption and crime and hold them accountable for old and new transgressions. Who killed the innocent protesting activists? What happened to the billions of oil revenues, that were supposed to go to the state treasury? And how come Haider al-Abadi received from Nuri al-Maliki empty state coffers, which used to contain $145 billion? And where did the treasury funds go that Mustafa al-Kadhimi received from Adel Abdul-Mahdi after having repeated Abadi’s words, “I received an empty treasury?”
Why do 40 percent of the Iraqi people live below the poverty line in a country, that is considered one of the richest in the region?
Maliki used to provoke a crisis each time he faced a crisis. And he always found in the Kurds the weakest link to stir up public opinion. When his army pulled out from Mosul to shamefully run away from ISIS, as we saw in 2014, he ignited a crisis with the Kurds during the same year and then imposed a total siege on them to make them taste bitter humiliation. Now, he is leading the Coordination Framework in the same hostile spirit by pushing the courts against the Kurds. He does not dare confront Sadr openly because Sadr will turn his world upside down. Instead, he sends him a message through the Kurds, the gist of which is, “Do not defy us or stand against us. Just as we re-opened the case of the 15-year old Kurdish oil and gas law, so we can re-open the file of the murder of Abdul Majeed Al-Khoei in 2003 and push the court to act against you. So beware of playing with fire!”

Road rage: Why are authorities struggling to tame the truckers?
Ngaire Woods/ Arab News/February 20, 2022
Truculent truckers have driven several governments to distraction in recent weeks. In Canada, they blocked bridges to the US and laid siege to the capital, Ottawa. In New Zealand’s capital, Wellington, truckers and other demonstrators, inspired by the Canadian protesters, blocked the square in front of the country’s parliament as well as several city streets.
This new wave of “freedom convoy” protests, fueled initially by opposition to coronavirus restrictions, has since spread to France, Australia and the US. Governments and law-enforcement agencies have responded with a range of tactics but ending the protests is proving difficult. In Ottawa, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at first described the truckers as a fringe minority. But one survey reported that one-third of Canadians support the protesters, even as they were creating havoc for Ottawa residents and for factories on both sides of the US-Canada border.
The Ottawa police tried a “surge and contain” strategy by arresting a few people, issuing tickets and traffic notices, and seizing fuel being brought to the truckers. This approach, the city’s police chief said, significantly reduced the number of trucks and protesters. But it has not been successful enough.
On Feb. 6, the mayor of Ottawa declared a state of emergency and police subsequently used a court injunction to begin clearing the Ambassador Bridge connecting Ontario with the US. But the protests have continued and on Feb. 15 the police chief resigned.
In Wellington, as in Ottawa, the protesters were initially permitted to have their say but after a week of escalating disorder the authorities adopted various measures in an effort to disperse them. The speaker of the House of Representatives turned on water sprinklers on the lawn where protesters were assembled, and then played Barry Manilow songs and the Macarena on a 15-minute loop. Still, many of the protesters remained.
French authorities took a more robust approach, banning the “convoi de la liberte” from Paris. On Feb. 11, the police deployed more than 7,000 officers to tollbooths and other key sites around the city, along with bulldozers and water cannon to break up potential blockades. By the following day, 337 people had been fined and several dozen arrested. But the cat-and-mouse game between protesters and the police continues.
The protests have three features that make them particularly difficult to manage. Firstly, there are myriad grievances among the protesters. Clearly, repeated government-imposed COVID-19 restrictions have led to widespread exhaustion and exasperation. This was evident in Europe in late 2021 when the introduction of new lockdown phases and restrictions because of the spread of the Omicron variant triggered immediate, large-scale demonstrations in Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Croatia and Italy. But the current trucker-inspired protests have snowballed quickly to include groups with a multitude of complaints and demands.
The protests in Canada were sparked by a new government mandate requiring unvaccinated truckers to quarantine after returning from the US. Within days, the truckers were joined by an assortment of political groups and were being egged on by some opposition parties.
Similarly, in New Zealand what started as a protest against vaccine mandates rapidly expanded to include truckers, fundamentalist Christian leader Brian Tamaki’s Freedoms and Rights Coalition, and an online conspiracy-theory channel. Banners carries by protesters highlighted a range of issues, including COVID-19, censorship and indigenous rights.
A second feature of the protests is the inspiration and support they receive from abroad. Paradoxically, nationalist anti-globalizers are encouraging movements in other countries. In 2021, for example, right-wing US groups were fueling anti-vaccine protests in Australia. And US politicians, including former President Donald Trump, US Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, show little restraint in urging-on protesters elsewhere in the world.
Funding for the protests is global, too. The crowdfunding platform GoFundMe transferred an initial 1 million Canadian dollars ($785,000) to the protesters in Canada before it suspended payments and refunded donations following police reports of violence. GiveSendGo, a US Christian crowdfunding site, has reportedly raised more than $8 million for the protesters and insists it will distribute the money despite a Canadian court order prohibiting it from doing so.
Trudeau has also raised concerns about callers in the US flooding emergency phone lines in Ottawa, and the presence of US citizens in the blockades.
In New Zealand, where some protesters are flying Canadian and Trump flags outside the parliament, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern described the anti-vaccine-mandate demonstrations as an unprecedented “imported” phenomenon.
A final complicating factor is that the protests lack any clear leadership or organization, which leaves governments and police with no negotiating partners. The Teamsters union, which represents 15,000 long-haul truck drivers in Canada, has denounced the Ottawa blockade. Amid chaotic scenes in Wellington, meanwhile, Tamaki’s coalition reportedly left the protests when they saw white supremacists joining the ranks but subsequently returned.
Despite these obstacles, some conflict-management lessons are worth applying. For starters, civic leaders would do well to avoid defining the issues at stake in a maximalist way. Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, arguably was guilty of this when he wrote in a recent heartfelt commentary that “the goals of the leadership of the so-called freedom convoy were clear from the start: to remove from power the government that Canadians elected less than six months ago.”
The authorities should instead focus on the narrower common goals among protesters, such as those concerning specific aspects of COVID-19 mandates. With this in mind, they should seek out the protesters who are championing those issues and pursue dialogue with them.
Amid calls to deploy the military, governments need to think both tactically and strategically about how best to uphold the rule of law. Troops should not be used. Instead, officials should consult the playbook used by the UK to address violent protests in 2011: Courts were kept open 24 hours a day so that the police could enforce every infraction in real time. Tactically, opportunistic protesters were dissuaded. Strategically, public support for the rule of law was strengthened.
*Ngaire Woods is dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at the University of Oxford. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.

بارعة علم الدين/الأسد ينقل ملكية أراضي السوريين المسروقة إلى ملالي إيران
Assad flogs off stolen Syrian lands to the Ayatollahs
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 20, 2022
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A ground-breaking initiative has been launched to expose Syrian crimes against humanity before the International Criminal Court. For the first time, a primary focus is the culpability of Iran and its proxies.
Lawyers have said that Tehran’s support for Assad had come “at the cost of hundreds of thousands of killed, injured and displaced Syrian civilians.” Evidence will show how Iran-backed militias deliberately targeted non-combatants, forcing thousands to flee and significantly contributing to the more than 13 million Syrians who have been displaced. Meanwhile, observers have documented Russian forces in 2022 systematically displacing citizens through indiscriminate airstrikes against residential areas and civilian infrastructures.
New research published by the Harmoon Centre illustrates how Assad’s forces and Iran-aligned militias, with Russian backing, embarked on campaigns of industrial-scale forced displacement: “Tehran has no interest in the return of refugees” at any point in the future. In Hezbollah-dominated areas near the Lebanon borders, and in eastern regions controlled by Iraqi militias, these paramilitaries have blocked the return of Syrians.
Assad’s obstruction of the return of millions of Syrians includes laws that allow the regime to seize properties and lands of those who fled. Vast urban areas have been handed over to extended families of foreign militias and imported loyalist populations. By returning Sunni refugees to areas under Turkish influence in the north and east Syria, Erdogan is doing Assad’s work for him while also engaging in his own demographic engineering at the expense of Kurdish populations.
Auctions are being held to sell-off huge areas of land. The Syrian Association for Citizen’s Dignity reports how the so-called “Shiite Endowment in Deir Al-Zour” confiscated agricultural lands to “invest in tourism projects for the Iranians and Iraqis”, with mass confiscations occurring under the supervision of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Corrupt Iraqi militia factions have pursued land deals “under the cover of reconstruction and rehabilitation.” Landowners who fail to provide documentation or don’t pay the unaffordable fees are summarily dispossessed.
Iran has been purchasing lands and properties at knock-down prices, with large acquisitions throughout strategic areas of Damascus, such as around the airport. Hezbollah has been laundering billions of dollars through real-estate acquisitions, focusing on Damascus and southern regions – a state of affairs which Israel sooner-or-later will militarily address.
Hezbollah already controls vast regions adjacent to Lebanon, some of which have become core areas for manufacturing the amphetamine-based drug Captagon. Hundreds of millions of tablets are being exported, reaping billions of dollars in revenues for Hezbollah and the Assads. Hezbollah dominates south Lebanon, south Beirut and the Beqaa region, and is also investing in property throughout impoverished parts of northern Lebanon, exploiting the dire economic situation to its benefit.
Iran flexes its soft power muscles by converting confiscated Syrian properties into Shia community centres, educational establishments, religious centres and shrines. Unemployed young men are coerced to join Iran-funded militias. Farsi-language departments have been opened in higher-educational institutions. Heavily subsidized courses, with a weighty ideological component, come with additional incentives such as trips to Iran, which are of course exploited for indoctrination purposes.
A new report has set out how Iran is buying up huge tracts of land in the Middle East while its own population suffers in poverty.
These initiatives illustrate the gross distortions of Iran’s state budget, which fails to offer the flimsiest of safety-nets for its emaciated populace while funnelling billions through opaque foundations for the purpose of investments in its satellite states and associated paramilitary forces.
The indefinite presence of millions of Syrians has an unsustainable impact on Lebanon, Jordan and Turkey. Lebanon’s vast Palestinian refugee population was a major destabilizing factor in triggering the 1970s civil war. Hassan Nasrallah plays up the Daesh bogeyman, as if all Sunnis are terrorists-in-waiting; but a traumatised and destitute generation that has gone without schooling is the perfect recruiting-ground for extremist groups. These states are sitting on time-bombs created by perpetuating the Syria conflict and massive-scale demographic engineering.
Through mass-displacements, mass-acquisitions and mass-murder, Tehran is making it inevitable that Israel will eventually act in Syria to neutralize this Iranian satellite state – while the world studiously looks away.
Post-1979 Iran has tenaciously pursued the ejection of the US from the region, the eradication of Israel and the establishment of proxies to overrun Arab nations. A few years ago I wrote an article which argued that Iran had stolen more than 20 times the area of Arab land stolen by Israel; and was responsible for more than 100 times the Arab loss of life. Syrian land grabs and demographic engineering are a textbook case of Tehran remodelling the region according to this aggressive expansionist vision; converting Arab nations into failed states. Yet the biggest failed state in the region is Iran itself.
If the Americans do indeed succeed in cobbling together a nuclear deal with Iran, then Tehran will have billions of dollars of additional unfrozen funds at its disposal to purchase Syrian sovereignty on-the cheap and further enlarge its paramilitary armies.
For the financially and morally bankrupt Assad regime, selling stolen Syrian lands to Iran has immediate benefits. Yet what does Assad think he will be left ruling? He may believe he owes Tehran everything, but he has rendered himself a puppet whom the Russians and Iranians can flick aside at will.
Assad desires to return to the Arab fold, but how is this supposed to happen when his own actions divest Syria of its Arab identity?
Arabs once believed it was impossible for Palestine to lose its essential Arab character, yet here we are today facing the reality of Israel. If Syrian leaders, Syrians themselves and the Arab world do not seize this moment, Syria risks becoming every bit as lost as Palestine.
*Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.