English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 19/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
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Bible Quotations For today
See, I am sending you out like sheep into
the midst of wolves; so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves.
Matthew 10/16-22: “”See, I am sending you out like sheep into
the midst of wolves; so be wise as serpents and innocent as doves. Beware of
them, for they will hand you over to councils and flog you in their synagogues;
and you will be dragged before governors and kings because of me, as a testimony
to them and the Gentiles. When they hand you over, do not worry about how you
are to speak or what you are to say; for what you are to say will be given to
you at that time; for it is not you who speak, but the Spirit of your Father
speaking through you. Brother will betray brother to death, and a father his
child, and children will rise against parents and have them put to death; and
you will be hated by all because of my name. But the one who endures to the end
will be saved.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on February 18-19/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 4090 new Corona cases, 20 deaths
Israeli Jets Overfly Beirut at Very Low Altitude after Hizbullah Sends Drone
over Israel
Islamic Resistance launches reconnaissance drone into skies of occupied
Palestine: statement
Aoun Stresses Elections to be Held on Time, Dismisses 'Rumors'
Israel Fires Missile, Scrambles Aircraft after Drone Crosses from Lebanon
Radio-Controlled Aircraft from Lebanon Sets off Israeli Defenses, Israeli Army
Says
Israel Fires at Alleged Hezbollah Drone, Scrambles Jets
Israel Says it Shot Down Hezbollah Drone
Lebanon Awards CMA CGM Contract for Beirut Port Container Terminal
President Aoun signs two decrees to open and transfer funds from general budget
to cover parliamentary elections’ expenses, meets Abbot Al-Hashem
Berri expresses Lebanon’s reservations regarding report of Political Committee
of Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union Conference
Mikati partakes in Munich Security Conference opening session, meets UN’s
Guterres and Qatari Foreign Minister
Secretary-General appoints Mr. Ted Chaiban of Lebanon as Global Lead Coordinator
for COVID-19 Vaccine Country-Readiness and Delivery
Report: Banks Threaten to Shut Down if Salameh Arrested
Bou Habib Warns of Civil War if Lebanon Disarms Hizbullah
Haaretz Says Nasrallah Gave Approval on Demarcation Deal Negotiations
Lebanon Seizes Captagon Pills Hidden in Hookas
Life in Lebanon is certainly on a precipice. But it is not a failed state/Faisal
Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 18-19/2022
Republicans Warn Biden against Providing Guarantees to Tehran
Russia Says Withdrawing Military Forces from Near Ukraine
Shellfire as Putin Turns Up Heat on Ukraine and West
Russian Invasion Fears Rise as Rebels Accuse Ukraine of Preparing Attack
US Says Nuclear Deal Possible Within Days If Iran 'Shows Seriousness'
SDF Units Arrest ISIS Leader, Kill Another in Syria's Deir Ezzor
Jordan Detects 160 Drug Smuggling Groups Operating behind its Border with Syria
Sisi Stresses Egypt’s Interest in Developing Partnership with Europe
OPEC+ Would Seek to Bring Iran into Oil Supply Deal
Hamas Calls on Australia to Reverse Decision Listing It as Terror Group
Pelosi Opens Conference to Support Palestinian Companies with $250 Mln
Egyptian, Spanish Naval Forces Conduct Joint Drill in Mediterranean
Canadian Parliament cancels as Police vow to end protest
Israel, Citing 'Bias,' Won't Cooperate with U.N. Rights Team
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 18-19/2022
Biden’s Weakness Puts Strong Iran Deal Out of Reach/Mark Dubowitz &
Bradley Bowman/Real Clear Defense/February 18/2022
Bipartisan Support Builds for Re-Designation of Iranian-Backed Houthis as a
Terrorist Organization/Matthew Zweig/ Policy Brief/February 18/2022
New Evidence Reveals Extent of Iranian Support for Houthi Terrorists/Con
Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/February 18, 2022
For Putin, Disquiet Is the New Quiet/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/February,
18/2022
France and its Specter/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 18/2022
Question: "How can a loving God send someone to hell?"/GotQuestions.org/February,
18/2022
on February 18-19/2022
Corona - Health Ministry: 4090 new
Corona cases, 20 deaths
NNA/Friday, 18 February, 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Friday the registration of 4090 new infections with the Coronavirus,
which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1039299. The
report added that 20 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
Israeli Jets Overfly Beirut at Very Low Altitude
after Hizbullah Sends Drone over Israel
Associated Press/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Two Israeli warplanes overflew Beirut and its suburbs at a very low altitude in
a mock raid on Friday, minutes after Hizbullah claimed responsibility for a
drone that overflew northern Israel for 40 minutes. The buzzing of the fighter
jets jolted residents, rattled windows and set off some car alarms. Hizbullah
meanwhile issued a statement saying it had sent the "Hassan" drone inside
Israel. It claimed the drone toured the targeted area for 40 minutes on a
"reconnaissance mission that extended along seventy kilometers" inside the
occupied territories. "Despite the enemy's multiple and successive attempts to
shoot it down, the 'Hassan' plane returned from the occupied territories safely
after it successfully carried out the required mission," it said. Earlier in the
day, the Israeli military said it fired interceptor missiles and protectively
scrambled warplanes after the drone crossed its tense northern border. Hours
later, investigations concluded the drone managed to return to Lebanon, the
Israeli military said in a statement. The incidents come just a day after Israel
shot down what it said was another drone, allegedly from Hizbullah. The Israeli
military said in its statement that the incursion set off air raid sirens in
northern Israel, and that Iron Dome interceptors were deployed and fighter jets
were patrolling the skies. Israel and Hizbullah are bitter enemies that fought a
monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate. Israel considers the
Iranian-backed Hizbullah to be its greatest immediate threat, possessing an
estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking anywhere in Israel.
Israel has long expressed concerns that Hizbullah would obtain or develop guided
missiles and attack drones. Earlier this week, Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing military drones in Lebanon, and
has the technology to turn thousands of missiles in its possession into
precision-guided munitions.
Islamic Resistance launches reconnaissance drone
into skies of occupied Palestine: statement
NNA/Friday, 18 February, 2022
The Islamic Resistance announced, in a statement, that its military units
launched on Friday a reconnaissance drone into the skies of occupied Palestine
where it flew for 40 minutes. The statement added that “Hassan” drone
accomplished its mission which covered a distance of 70 kilometers in the north
of occupied Palestine. According to the statement, the drone returned safely
despite all the Israeli measures and attempts to shoot it down after
accomplishing the mission successfully.
Aoun Stresses Elections to be Held on Time,
Dismisses 'Rumors'
Naharnet/Friday, 18 February, 2022
President Michel Aoun reiterated Friday that the parliamentary elections will be
held on time on May 15 as he signed a decree referring to parliament a draft law
for earmarking a budget for the polls in the 2022 state budget.
Aoun hoped parliament will approve the draft law as soon as possible to enable
the Interior Ministry to continue the necessary preparations for the elections.
The President also emphasized that the polls will be held in a timely manner,
calling for “dismissing the rumors about the presence of an intention to
postpone them.”
Israel Fires Missile, Scrambles Aircraft after Drone
Crosses from Lebanon
Naharnet/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Israel said Friday that it fired an anti-aircraft missile and scrambled
warplanes and military helicopters after a small drone crossed from Lebanon into
Israeli territory. In an English-language tweet, the Israeli army described the
drone as a “radio-controlled aircraft.”“Sirens were sounded & aerial defense
systems were activated. After a few minutes, radar contact was lost with the
aircraft,” the Israeli army added. “The event is under investigation & civilian
life has returned to routine,” it said. It later announced that the drone
managed to return to Lebanon “after a few minutes.” Al-Jazeera TV quoted the
Israeli army as saying that the drone was not armed and that "it seems that
Hizbullah sent it to gather information," as other reports said that the drone
might have returned unscathed to Lebanon. The incident comes hours after
Israel's army said Thursday it had shot down a drone sent by Lebanon's Hizbullah
that entered Israeli airspace. Israel has long expressed concerns that Hizbullah
would obtain or develop guided missiles and attack drones. Earlier this week,
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing
military drones in Lebanon, and has the technology to turn thousands of missiles
in its possession into precision-guided munitions.
Radio-Controlled Aircraft from Lebanon Sets off Israeli
Defenses, Israeli Army Says
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Israeli aerial defenses were triggered and fighter jets scrambled after a
radio-controlled aircraft crossed into Israel from Lebanon on Friday, Israel's
military said. Moments earlier air raid sirens sounded in the Galilee region of
northern Israel, warning residents to take cover. There were no reports of
injuries or damage. "Iron Dome interceptors were launched according to protocol
and fighter jets were scrambled to patrol the area. No special instructions for
civilians in the area have been issued," the military said.It later said that
after a few minutes, radar contact was lost with the aircraft and the event was
being investigated. On Thursday the military said it had downed a drone that
belonged to the Lebanese group Hezbollah after it crossed into Israeli air
space. Neither Lebanon nor Hezbollah gave immediate comment. Israel and
Hezbollah are bitter enemies that fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a
stalemate. Israel considers the Iranian-backed Hezbollah to be its greatest
immediate threat, possessing an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable
of striking anywhere in Israel. Israel has long expressed concerns that
Hezbollah would obtain or develop guided missiles and attack drones. Earlier
this week, Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been
manufacturing military drones in Lebanon, and has the technology to turn
thousands of missiles in its possession into precision-guided munitions.
Israel Fires at Alleged Hezbollah Drone, Scrambles Jets
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
The Israeli military on Friday said it fired interceptor missiles and
protectively scrambled warplanes after what it described as a drone launched by
Lebanon’s Hezbollah group crossed its tense northern border. The move comes just
a day after Israel shot down what it said was another Hezbollah drone. Neither
Lebanon nor Hezbollah gave immediate comment. The military said the incursion
set off air raid sirens in northern Israel, and that Iron Dome interceptors were
deployed and fighter jets were patrolling the skies. Israel and Hezbollah are
bitter enemies that fought a monthlong war in 2006 that ended in a stalemate.
Israel considers the Iranian-backed Hezbollah to be its greatest immediate
threat, possessing an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles capable of striking
anywhere in Israel. Israel has long expressed concerns that Hezbollah would
obtain or develop guided missiles and attack drones. Earlier this week,
Hezbollah’s chief Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing
military drones in Lebanon, and has the technology to turn thousands of missiles
in its possession into precision-guided munitions.
Israel Says it Shot Down Hezbollah Drone
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 February, 2022
The Israeli military on Thursday said it shot down an unmanned aircraft launched
by Lebanon's Hezbollah into Israeli airspace. The incident occurred just a day
after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said his group has been manufacturing
military drones in Lebanon and has the technology to turn thousands of missiles
in its possession into precision-guided munitions. In a statement, the Israeli
military said it had monitored the drone “throughout the incident” before
shooting it down. It gave no further details but said it will “continue to
operate in order to prevent any attempt to violate Israeli sovereignty.”
Lebanon Awards CMA CGM Contract for Beirut Port
Container Terminal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 17 February, 2022
Lebanon has awarded France's CMA CGM (CMACG.UL) a contract for the management,
operation and maintenance of the container terminal in the port of Beirut for 10
years, Public Works and Transport minister Ali Hamie told Reuters on Thursday. A
huge explosion at the port in 2020 killed more than 200 people and damaged
entire neighborhoods, deepening Lebanon's worst political and economic crisis
since the 1975-1990 civil war. "The contract includes $33 mln that will be paid
by CMA CGM to develop the work inside the port," the minister said, without
revealing more details about the contract terms. CMA CGM is controlled by the
French-Lebanese Saade family and the group joined French President Emmanuel
Macron in relief efforts in Beirut following the explosion.
President Aoun signs two decrees to open and transfer funds
from general budget to cover parliamentary elections’ expenses, meets Abbot Al-Hashem
NNA/Friday, 18
February, 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed Decree No. 8813 of
February 18, 2022, to refer a draft law to the Parliament.
This law aims to open an exceptional additional appropriation in the 2022
general budget in the Interior and Foreign Affairs Ministries, to cover the
expenses of the scheduled parliamentary elections next May 15.
The value of the appropriation is 320 billion LBP, 260 billion LBP for the
Ministry of Interior, and 60 billion LBP for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The Cabinet had agreed in its session last Tuesday to open this appropriation to
provide the expenses of the parliamentary elections.
In addition, the President signed Decree No. 8814 on February 18, 2022, which
stipulates transferring funds from the general budget reserve to the budget of
the Ministry of Interior at a value of 35 billion LBP to provide the expenses of
holding the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Moreover, President Aoun expressed his hope that the bill to open the
exceptional additional appropriation of 320 billion Lebanese pounds will be
approved as soon as possible in the Parliament so that the Ministry of Interior
can complete the necessary procedures to secure the holding of the parliamentary
elections on time, knowing that the Parliament is called to hold a legislative
session beginning of next week.
President Aoun reiterated that the parliamentary elections will take place on
time on May 15th, and stressed not to take into account rumors of a tendency to
postpone elections.
Abbot Hashem:
The President met the General President of the Lebanese Maronite Congregation,
Abbot Neematallah Al-Hashem, today at Baabda Palace.
Abbot Hashem was accompanied by the Secretary-General of the Order, Father
Michel Abu Taqa.
General affairs were deliberated, especially the social, humanitarian and
educational conditions and the role of the monastery in helping to alleviate the
suffering of citizens.
The meeting also tackled a number of projects that the monastery is working to
implement in various Lebanese regions, especially in the field of social and
educational care.
Abbot Al-Hashem had thanked President Aoun for his sympathy on the death of the
monastry’s former president, Abbot Athanasius Al-Jalakh, and awarding him a
medal in appreciation of his contributions in the spiritual, national and social
fields. -- Presidency Press Office
Berri expresses Lebanon’s reservations regarding report of
Political Committee of Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union Conference
NNA/Friday, 18
February, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday expressed Lebanon’s reservations regarding
the report of the Political Committee of the Arab Inter-Parliamentary Union
Conference held in Cairo in its 32nd session under the title of “Arab
Solidarity.” The House Speaker said in an intervention, “I think we’re meeting
in this conference under the title of Arab Solidarity. Where is the solidarity
in this report? Where is the Arab Common Market?”He went on to wonder, “Where is
our solidarity confronting terrorism?” suggesting Arab coordination over this
matter, with Cairo being the headquarters for coordination. Berri then pushed
for an Arab Parliamentary Union conference to start a Lebanese dialogue with
Arab Gulf states under the auspices of Kuwait. He also reminded the Arab League
of “the necessity of Syria's return to the League without hesitation.”The House
speaker also appealed to the Palestinians to take the initiative to achieve
Palestinian-Palestinian reconciliation under Egyptian auspices. "Last but not
least, fighting in Yemen should end and dialogue between all its components
should begin,” he added.
Mikati partakes in Munich Security Conference opening
session, meets UN’s Guterres and Qatari Foreign Minister
NNA/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Friday participated in the opening of the 58th
work session of the “Munich Security Conference” at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in
the city of Munich - southern Germany, with wide international and Arab
participation. Prior to the inaugural session of the Conference, Premier Mikati
held a series of meetings, in the presence of Lebanon's Ambassador to Germany,
Mustafa Adib. In this framework, Mikati met with United Nations
Secretary-General António Guterres and discussed with him the Lebanese situation
and the work of "UNIFIL" forces in southern Lebanon. Mikati also met with Qatari
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman,
and they discussed the bilateral relations between the two countries and the
situation in the region. Moreover, Mikati met with German Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs, Tobias Lindner. During the meeting, the pair discussed the
Lebanese-German relations and the possibilities of German cooperation in several
service sectors. Mikati also met respectively with the President of Kurdistan
Region, Nechirvan Barzani, and the President of the Republic of Kosovo Vjosa
Osmani.
Secretary-General appoints Mr. Ted Chaiban of Lebanon as
Global Lead Coordinator for COVID-19 Vaccine Country-Readiness and Delivery
NNA/Friday, 18
February, 2022
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres today announced the
appointment of Ted Chaiban of Lebanon as Global Lead Coordinator for COVID-19
Vaccine Country-Readiness and Delivery, at the level of Assistant
Secretary-General, in UNICEF. Mr. Chaiban will lead a senior inter-agency team
to ensure an effective global response to the pandemic, supporting COVID vaccine
country-readiness and delivery. He will coordinate inter-agency efforts to
forecast vaccine needs, as well as provide financial and technical assistance to
overcome bottlenecks in country-level implementation. Working for UNICEF since
1997, Mr, Chaiban has served as Regional Director for the Middle East and North
Africa; Director of Programmes; Director of Emergency Programmes; Country
Representative in Ethiopia, Sri Lanka, and Sudan; Regional Emergency Adviser for
Eastern and Southern Africa; and Deputy Chief of Operations for the Operation
Lifeline Sudan consortium based in Nairobi. Prior to joining UNICEF, Mr. Chaiban
was Country Representative for Catholic Relief Services in Haiti, Kenya, Sudan
and Uganda. Mr. Chaiban holds a Bachelor of Science Degree in Biology and
Political Science from Tufts University and a Master of Arts Degree in
Development and Arab Studies from Georgetown University. He speaks English,
French and Arabic.
Report: Banks Threaten to Shut Down if Salameh Arrested
Naharnet/Friday, 18
February, 2022
The main commercial banks in Lebanon have warned the relevant officials that
they would shut down their operations and that their CEOs would leave Lebanon
should Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh be arrested, informed sources said.
The sources added, in remarks to Kuwait’s al-Anbaa newspaper published Friday,
that the banks’ move would be “in protest at the arbitrary and Don Quixotic
approach toward the banking sector.”Reminding of “what happened after banks were
closed after October 17, 2019,” the sources said the banks “would not object if
Cabinet decides to remove Salameh from his post and appoint a successor in a
legal and sound manner.”
Bou Habib Warns of Civil War if Lebanon Disarms
Hizbullah
Naharnet/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib said "we do not want another civil war,"
commenting on the Gulf demanding Lebanon to implement the U.N. resolution 1559.
The minister told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Friday, that
“all U.N. resolutions need a mechanism beyond Lebanon's capability." "If they
ask us to give more than what we are capable of giving, that would be a call for
civil war, which we reject," Bou Habib said. "We need international and regional
support to implement the U.N. resolutions," he added. Bou Habib said the Gulf
Cooperation Council will hold a meeting at the end of the month. He expected
that the Lebanese issue will be raised at the meeting. “The Kuwaitis were very
satisfied with the Lebanese response," Bou Habib stated, adding that he found
his Kuwaiti counterpart "understanding and cooperative."Lebanon is awaiting a
Saudi and Emirati feedback on Lebanon's response to a list of policy suggestions
made by Gulf nations in an attempt to end an impasse between Lebanon and the
Gulf. Bou Habib headed to Kuwait last month to deliver Lebanon's answers. He had
made it clear, ahead of his departure, that Lebanon will not disarm Hizbullah.
Haaretz Says Nasrallah Gave Approval on Demarcation Deal
Negotiations
Naharnet/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gave his approval to the Lebanese
government to proceed with the demarcation negotiations, Israeli newspaper
Haaretz said. According to the Israeli daily, international representatives have
met with Lebanese counterparts close to Hizbullah in the recent weeks to reach
an agreement. The Israeli newspaper reported that Hizbullah was "the main
obstacle" and was refusing any deal because it considered it "an attempt at
normalization with Israel or recognition of its ownership of the area."Yet,
Israeli security sources told Haaretz that "Hizbullah is interested in
concluding the talks with an agreement."The sources believe "the road is paved
to an agreement" that will end the conflict over the marine boundary between the
two countries. "The agreement is expected to appoint an international mediating
actor acceptable to all sides, who will determine the royalties due to each
side, and will be in charge of overseeing the transfer of funds and gas due to
each country from the extracting companies," the daily said. On another note,
Hizbullah refused to accept an agreement "precluding them from acting against
Israel in the future," Haaretz added. U.S. Special Envoy and Coordinator for
International Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein had arrived in Lebanon this month to
revive talks between Lebanon and Israel over a maritime border dispute that is
holding up oil and gas explorations. Lebanese politicians hope that commercially
viable hydrocarbon resources off Lebanon's coast could help lift the debt-ridden
country out of its financial crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the
planet's worst in modern times, while Israelis are pushing for speeding up the
negotiations to start drilling for gas in the disputed Karish field.
Lebanon Seizes Captagon Pills Hidden in Hookas
Naharnet/Friday, 18
February, 2022
The Lebanese authorities have seized more than five tons of Captagon bound for
Africa, the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces announced Friday.
More than 30,000 pills of Captagon have been seized, last week, hidden in boxes
containing five hookahs, the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces
said in a statement. The statement added that two Syrian nationals were arrested
and that investigations are being carried out. In recent years, neighboring
Syria has emerged as a hotspot for making and selling captagon, an illegal
amphetamine. Both Syria and Lebanon have become gateways for the drug to the
Middle East, particularly the Gulf. Saudi Arabia slapped devastating trade
restrictions last year on Beirut after a huge shipment originating from Lebanon
was seized, containing Captagon concealed in pomegranates. More than 25 million
pills of Captagon have been seized across the region since the start of the year
alone. Last month, Kuwait’s foreign minister gave Lebanese authorities a list of
suggested measures to be taken to ease a diplomatic rift with Gulf Arab
countries. Amid other demands, the paper urged Lebanon to ensure the exports to
the Gulf are free of drugs.
Life in Lebanon is certainly on a precipice. But it is
not a failed state
Faisal Al Yafai/The Arab Weekly/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Designating the country a failed state is really a rhetorical act; it does
nothing to change the facts on the ground, nor the way the international
community responds. For the past two decades, February 14 has marked a moment of
reflection for many in Lebanon, the anniversary of the 2005 car bomb attack that
killed the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and finally led to the end of
Syrian occupation. This year the date was more poignant because his son Saad,
who subsequently took on his father’s leadership of parts of the Sunni
community, announced his withdrawal from politics.
In his resignation address, Hariri sounded a pessimistic note. “I am convinced
that there is no room for any positive opportunity for Lebanon in light of
Iranian influence, national division and the withering of the state,” he said.
He told members of parliament he expected the situation to get worse, and
advised the Future Movement, of which he was leader, not to contest elections
this year. All in all, a pessimistic political outlook. The economic outlook is
similarly grave. Despite last week’s approval of a government budget, the
economy is in full meltdown, with the Lebanese pound having lost more than 90
percent of its value. Poverty is widespread and many Lebanese have seen their
savings wiped out; others are frozen out of bank accounts. With so much on a
downward trajectory in the country, it is little wonder that the descriptor
“failed state” has once again made the rounds, sometimes even by those within
the country. But while catchy, it is lazy and platitudinous, nor even very
helpful. There are usually four ways analysts decide if a state has failed,
summed up as: borders, utilities, guns and government. Can a state protect its
borders; can it provide basic utilities and services; can it govern people
across its territory and does it have a monopoly on the use of force?
The last is often seen as the most important. States that cannot police
themselves, where there are groups within their territory that can arrest,
imprison and even kill citizens who are not part of the state are usually
candidates for failed states.
Judged like that, Lebanon could certainly qualify as a failed state: there is no
monopoly on the use of violence, as Hezbollah's vast military resources sit
outside of state control. But the same is true in many other countries. Ukraine
has part of its territory in Crimea occupied. Many countries across the Sahel do
not control their borders.In truth, many of the countries called failed states
over the past few years, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, had not disintegrated to the
point where the state could no longer function. Indeed, in Syria, even though
parts of the country were beyond the regime’s control, there was never a point
in the past ten years when the authorities in Damascus could not control parts
of their territory and population and tragically, still order the military to
carry out attacks. If Syria was a failed state, many Syrians might mutter darkly
that it was not failed enough.
The archetypal failed state, the one for which the designation was created and
the only one to which it could reasonably be applied, was Somalia in the 1990s.
After a coup toppled the dictator Siad Barre in 1991, rival militias turned on
each other, then on humanitarian workers, then on the United States. Two decades
would pass before a centralised government resumed.
Apart from the obvious criticism that the designation “failed state” is
inherently political, it is also not especially helpful. Is Lebanon on a
precipice, socially, politically and economically? Undoubtedly. But designating
the country a failed state is really a rhetorical act; it does nothing to change
the facts on the ground, nor the way the international community responds. It
may, I suppose, provoke urgency, although it has not so far. If it is not
accurate to describe Lebanon as a failed state, it may still be right to say it
has failed as a state. That is to say that while the idea of Lebanon as a
multi-confessional society remains accurate, the political construction of that
state is problematic. It is this wrapper of a political structure, a sectarian
structure put in place in 1990 after the civil war, that has caused many of
today’s problems. It is not unreasonable to say that that particular method of
organising the state has failed. The reason is apparent to anyone who has looked
at Lebanon’s history since the Taif agreement that ended the conflict. For
decades, the sectarian system has ensured that no national identity could
emerge. Instead, Lebanon’s political development was frozen along religious
lines and anyone who questioned that system was bullied by threats of a return
to civil war.
That certainly was the conclusion of the mass protests that started in 2019, led
by a new generation eager to sweep away the sectarian system. It is a shame
that, three years on, that movement is still spluttering and has not been given
the support, within and without Lebanon’s borders, that it deserves.
It is not obvious what the consequences of Hariri’s withdrawal from public life
and his public declaration that he has no faith in the elections, may be, but
they are unlikely to be as far reaching as he would like, at least on the
evidence of the past two years.
Life in Lebanon is certainly on a precipice. These are dark days for the
country. But if Lebanon is failing, it is because the state has failed
it.*Faisal Al Yafai is currently writing a book on the Middle East and is a
frequent commentator on international TV news networks. He has worked for news
outlets such as The Guardian and the BBC, and reported on the Middle East,
Eastern Europe, Asia and Africa.
Syndication Bureau
www.syndicationbureau.com.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
February 18-19/2022
Republicans Warn Biden against Providing Guarantees
to Tehran
Washington – Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Republican lawmakers reiterated their total refusal of any nuclear deal with
Iran without Congress’ approval, following Iran’s proposal that the United
States makes a “political statement” of its commitment to a nuclear accord with
Tehran. About 200 Republican lawmakers wrote a letter to US President Joe Biden,
warning that any agreement with Iran without congressional approval would face
the same fate as the deal concluded by the administration of former President
Barack Obama. “We will view any agreement reached in Vienna which is not
submitted to the US Senate for ratification as a treaty—including any and all
secret agreements made with Iran directly or on the sidelines of official
talks—as non-binding,” the lawmakers wrote in a letter dated Feb. 16, 2022. They
added: “As duly elected representatives of American citizens across the United
States, sent to Washington to check and balance the executive branch as
established by the separation of powers in our Constitution, we feel compelled
to remind you that you do not have the power to provide any such ‘guarantee.’”
In an exclusive interview with the Financial Times, Iranian Foreign Minister
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that Washington had failed to address Iran’s
demand for guarantees that it would not abandon the deal, calling for a
“political statement” that would stress its commitment in this regard. The
lawmakers warned Biden against ignoring the Congress and repeating the Obama
administration’s mistakes in this file. “Indeed, if you forge an agreement with
the Supreme Leader of Iran without formal Congressional approval, it will be
temporary and non-binding and will meet the same fate as the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA),” they underlined. The US lawmakers also pointed to the
possibility of removing the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from the terrorist
lists, and pledged to oppose any efforts in this direction. “We will oppose any
attempt to rescind the designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as a
foreign terrorist organization and will work to expand US sanctions on all
government entities, banks, companies and individuals connected to the IRGC,”
they stressed. The Republican lawmakers linked the file of negotiations with
Iran and the Ukraine crisis, expressing concern that the United States’
dependence on Russia as a main mediator in the Vienna negotiations had weakened
the US position with regards to Moscow’s plans to invade Ukraine. “If your
dependency on the Russians to revive the JCPOA [nuclear deal] is weakening our
deterrent posture with the Russians in other areas of the world, the American
people deserve to know,” they said, addressing Biden.
Russia Says Withdrawing Military Forces from Near
Ukraine
Agence France Presse/Friday, 18
February, 2022
Russia said Friday it was withdrawing more tanks and other armored vehicles from
areas near Ukraine's border after running war games that had raised concerns in
the West. "Another military train carrying personnel and military equipment
belonging to tank army units of the western military district returned to their
permanent bases in the Nizhny Novgorod region after completing scheduled
exercises," the Russian defense ministry said in a statement. Separately, it
said 10 Su-24 war planes were redeploying from the Moscow-annexed Crimean
peninsula to airfields in other regions as part of drills. In a later
announcement carried by news agencies, the defense ministry said further tank
contingents of the western military district were loading onto trains to return
to bases after drills. News agencies did not say where the units had been
running drills or where they were being redeployed. Russia has not said how many
personnel are participating in large-scale drills near Ukraine's border. The
drawdowns announced Friday are the latest in a series this week that initially
spurred hope for a reduction in tensions between Russia and the West over
Ukraine. The West has accused Moscow of massing tens of thousands of troops both
on Crimea and near Ukraine's borders and warned of an imminent Russian attack.
In response to the first announcements of the pullbacks however, Washington said
there was no meaningful reduction in troop numbers and said Russia was actually
increasing forces around the border. Tensions have been exacerbated by Russian
war games in Belarus, whose strongman leader, Alexander Lukashenko, was in
Moscow Friday for talks with President Vladimir Putin.
Shellfire as Putin Turns Up Heat on Ukraine and West
Agence France Presse/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Shellfire rang out in eastern Ukraine on Friday as the army and Moscow-backed
separatists accused each other of provocations and U.S. warnings of an imminent
Russian invasion stoked international tension. An AFP reporter near the
frontline between government forces and rebel-held territory in the Lugansk
region heard the thud of explosions and saw damaged civilian buildings. All eyes
were on Russian President Vladimir Putin's next move as Moscow announced he will
oversee a weekend drill of "strategic forces" -- ballistic and cruise missiles.
Russia has demanded that the United States withdraw all forces from NATO members
in central and eastern Europe and is turning up the pressure on Ukraine. US
President Joe Biden is to hold video talks with Western allies, including the
leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany and NATO, later on Friday to discuss
the crisis. On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told the United
Nations that Washington has intelligence showing that Moscow could order an
invasion in the "coming days."Russia has denied it has any such plan and claims
to have begun withdrawing some of the 149,000 troops that Ukraine now says are
on its borders. But Putin has done nothing to dial down tensions, ordering the
missile drills even as there are reports of an increase in shelling from
Russian-backed rebels in eastern Ukraine. Visiting Poland, U.S. Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin said Washington was seeing "more" Russian forces moving
into the Ukraine border region despite Moscow's announcements. On Thursday, a
shell punched a hole in the wall of a kindergarten in government-held territory
near the frontline in the Ukrainian village of Stanytsia Luganska.
Invasion pretext
The 20 children and 18 adults inside escaped serious injury but the attack
sparked international howls of protest. "The children were eating breakfast when
it hit," school laundry worker Natalia Slesareva told AFP at the scene. "It hit
the gym. After breakfast, the children had gym class. So, another 15 minutes,
and everything could have been much, much worse." On Friday, part of the village
remained without electricity. Konstantin Reutsky, director of the Vostok SOS aid
agency, told AFP that houses and a shop had been damaged. The Ukrainian joint
command center said the rebels had violated the ceasefire 20 times between
midnight and 9:00 am Friday, while the Donetsk and Lugansk separatist groups
said the army had fired 27 times. The conflict in Ukraine's east has rumbled on
for eight years, claiming the lives of more than 14,000 people and forcing more
than 1.5 million from their homes. But now, after Russia surrounded its neighbor
with armored battle groups, missile batteries and warships, there are fears that
Ukraine will be drawn into a clash that Russia could use as a pretext for
invasion. Speaking in parliament, Ukraine's defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov
insisted government forces would keep their cool.
"Ukraine is stepping up its defenses. But we have no intention of conducting
military operations" against the separatists of Russian-annexed Crimea, he said.
Serious steps
"Our mission is not to do any of the things the Russians are trying to provoke
us into doing," Reznikov added. "We have to push back but keep a cool head."From
the opposing camp, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "What is happening in
the Donbas is very concerning news and potentially very dangerous." Meanwhile,
Putin was to host his ally Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenko, who this week
said his country cold host Russian nuclear weapons aimed at the West. And the
Russian defense ministry further upped the ante by announcing that Putin would
on Saturday oversee an "exercise of strategic deterrence forces... during which
ballistic and cruise missiles will be launched." The air force, units of the
southern military district, as well as the Northern and Black Sea fleets would
be involved. Russia's aggressive stance has sent diplomatic shockwaves through
the West, scrambling to counter an unpredictable foe during what has been
described as the worst threat to European security since the Cold War. Leaders
of the Group of Seven wealthy nations will hold a virtual conference next
Thursday with the Ukraine crisis high on the agenda, Germany, which holds the
group's rotating presidency, said Friday.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Moscow needed to show "serious
steps towards de-escalation." "With an unprecedented deployment of troops on the
border with Ukraine and Cold War demands, Russia is challenging fundamental
principles of the European peace order," Baerbock said.
Russian Invasion Fears Rise as Rebels Accuse Ukraine of
Preparing Attack
Agence France Presse/Friday, 18 February, 2022
The United States on Friday accused Russia of seeking a pretext to invade
Ukraine, as shellfire rang out in the east of the country and Moscow-backed
rebels ordered a civilian evacuation of their breakaway enclaves. An AFP
reporter near the tense front between government forces and rebel-held territory
in the Lugansk region heard the thud of explosions and saw damaged civilian
buildings on Kyiv's side of the line. But in the rebel-held areas of Donetsk and
Lugansk, separatist leaders accused Kyiv of planning an offensive and government
forces of carrying out sabotage, in what U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken
dubbed a strategy of "creating false provocations". Amid concern that Moscow
would take the purported Ukrainian offensive as a pretext to launch its own
intervention, Ukraine's foreign minister furiously denied the allegations. "We
categorically refute Russian disinformation reports on Ukraine's alleged
offensive operations or acts of sabotage in chemical production facilities,"
Dmytro Kuleba declared on Twitter. "Ukraine does not conduct or plan any such
actions in the Donbas. We are fully committed to diplomatic conflict resolution
only."
Women and children first
Videos circulating on Russian-language social media showed sirens sounding in
separatist held Donetsk as Moscow-backed militia leaders ordered a civilian
evacuation to Russia. Denis Pushilin, head of the so-called Donetsk People's
Republic (DPR), declared: "Women, children and the elderly are subject to be
evacuated first. "The president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in the near future
will give the order for soldiers to go on the offensive."
The leader of the neighboring Lugansk separatist region in eastern Ukraine
Leonid Pasechnik also urged residents to evacuate to Russia "to prevent civilian
casualties." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Russian President Vladimir Putin's next
move as Moscow announced he will oversee a weekend drill of "strategic forces"
-- ballistic and cruise missiles. "We are seeing a deterioration of the
situation," Putin said at a press conference with his Belarus counterpart
Alexander Lukashenko in Moscow. Russia has demanded that the United States
withdraw all forces from NATO members in central and eastern Europe and is
turning up the pressure on Ukraine.
Blinken told the Munich Security Conference that what has happened "in the last
24 to 48 hours is part of a scenario that is already in place of creating false
provocations, of then having to respond to those provocations and then
ultimately committing new aggression against Ukraine." Russia has denied it has
any such plan and claims to have begun withdrawing some of the troops massed on
Ukraine's borders. But Ukraine's defense ministry said 149,000 were still there,
and U.S. officials allege that the number is still increasing, amounting to as
many as 190,000 if pro-Russian rebels are included.
U.S. President Joe Biden is to hold video talks with Western allies, including
the leaders of Britain, Canada, France, Germany and NATO, later on Friday to
discuss the crisis. On Thursday, a shell punched a hole in the wall of a
kindergarten in government-held territory near the frontline in the Ukrainian
village of Stanytsia Luganska.
'Could have been much worse'
The 20 children and 18 adults inside escaped serious injury but the attack
sparked international howls of protest. "It hit the gym. After breakfast, the
children had gym class. So, another 15 minutes, and everything could have been
much, much worse," school laundry worker Natalia Slesareva told AFP at the
scene. On Friday, part of the village remained without electricity. The
Ukrainian joint command center said the rebels had violated the ceasefire 53
times between midnight and 5:00 pm Friday, while the Donetsk and Lugansk
separatist groups said the army had fired 27 times in the morning.
"There are no losses among the military personnel of the joint forces as a
result of enemy actions," the Ukrainian command center said, accusing the rebels
of firing artillery from civilian population areas."Ukrainian defenders returned
fire to stop enemy activity only in case of a threat to the lives of
servicemen."The conflict in Ukraine's east has rumbled on for eight years,
claiming the lives of more than 14,000 people and forcing more than 1.5 million
from their homes.
'Keep a cool head' -
Speaking in parliament, Ukraine's defense minister Oleksiy Reznikov insisted
Kyiv had "no intention of conducting military operations" against the
separatists or Russian-annexed Crimea. "Our mission is not to do any of the
things the Russians are trying to provoke us into doing," Reznikov added.
"We have to push back but keep a cool head." The Russian defense ministry
further upped the ante by announcing that Putin would on Saturday oversee an
"exercise of strategic deterrence forces... during which ballistic and cruise
missiles will be launched." The air force, units of the southern military
district, as well as the Northern and Black Sea fleets would be involved.
Russia's aggressive stance has sent diplomatic shockwaves through the West,
scrambling to counter an unpredictable foe during what has been described as the
worst threat to European security since the Cold War.
US Says Nuclear Deal Possible Within Days If Iran
'Shows Seriousness'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
The United States said Thursday that "substantial progress" during negotiations
in Vienna to save the Iran nuclear deal had been made, deeming an agreement
possible within days if Iran "shows seriousness" on the matter. The Vienna
talks, which involve Iran as well as Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia
directly, and the United States indirectly, resumed in late November with the
aim of restoring the 2015 deal, AFP said. That accord had offered Tehran
sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program, but the United
States unilaterally withdrew in 2018 under former president Donald Trump and
reimposed heavy economic sanctions, prompting Iran to begin rolling back on its
commitments. Stating that "substantial progress has been made in the last week,"
a State Department spokesperson told AFP that "if Iran shows seriousness, we can
and should reach an understanding on mutual return to full implementation of the
JCPOA within days," using an acronym for the 2015 deal. But "anything much
beyond that would put the possibility of return to the deal at grave risk," the
spokesperson added. Experts believe Iran is only a few weeks away from having
enough fissile material to build a nuclear weapon -- even if it would take
several more complicated steps to create an actual bomb. President Joe Biden
said he is willing to return to the deal and ease some of the US sanctions,
provided Tehran resumes its commitments under the agreement. France had warned
Iran Wednesday that time was running out to accept a new deal. Foreign Minister
Jean-Yves Le Drian said it was "a question of days," adding that a major crisis
would be unleashed if there is no agreement. But earlier in the day, Iran's top
negotiator Ali Bagheri said they "are closer than ever to an agreement." He
called on the other parties to be "realistic" and make "serious decisions."
Tehran also called on the US Congress to say Washington would commit if an
agreement is reached in Vienna. Iranian authorities had said in 2018 they wanted
a "guarantee" that an agreement would be implemented, as the potential of US
political turnover had once more brought that into question.
SDF Units Arrest ISIS Leader, Kill Another in Syria's Deir
Ezzor
Qamishli – Kamal Sheikho/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday,
18 February, 2022
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced the killing of a
prominent ISIS leader responsible for terror plots and operations in the eastern
countryside of Syria’s east governorate of Deir Ezzor. Another significant
terror leader was arrested. They were responsible for transferring explosives
and ammunition to active members of the terror organization in Deir Ezzor. This
comes at a time the US-led International Coalition carried out an airdrop
operation west of Deir Ezzor in search of wanted persons, with the participation
of three US helicopters and SDF forces. “SDF units killed Abu Hamza Shamiyah,
the chief leader responsible for plotting attacks in the area,” Farhad Shami,
the director of the SDF media center, told Asharq Al-Awsat. Abu Hamza Shamiyah
was the architect of multiple assaults against SDF positions, local tribes, and
civilians. He was one of the most wanted fugitives in Deir Ezzor after staging a
terror assault that targeted SDF units on February 10. The terror hit resulted
in the death of five SDF fighters, according to Shami. “We arrested Shukri Kamal
Khalil, in the village of Zghair in the western countryside of Deir Ezzor,”
Shami added, noting that the detained terrorist was a leader of multiple sleeper
cells. SDF units seized large quantities of weapons, ammunition, and narcotics
in Khalil’s possession. On February 13, SDF units arrested an ISIS officer
behind a terror funding ring that was supporting the group’s activity in Syria.
Jordan Detects 160 Drug Smuggling Groups Operating
behind its Border with Syria
Amman, London - Mohammed Khair al-Rawashdeh/Asharq
Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Jordan’s army announced that 160 groups of traffickers are operating in southern
Syrian, near the border with Jordan. It also confirmed that security channels
for communication are up and running with the Syrian regime regarding the
matter. Drug trafficking from Syria into Jordan is becoming “organized” with
smugglers stepping up operations and using sophisticated equipment including
drones, Jordan’s army said Thursday, warning of a shoot-to-kill policy. Since
the beginning of this year, Jordan’s army has killed 30 smugglers and foiled
attempts to smuggle into the kingdom from Syria 16 million Captagon pills --
more than they seized in the whole of 2021 -- the military said. Speaking to
reporters, senior officer, Colonel Mustafa Al-Hiyari, said Jordan is “fighting
an undeclared war” and that drug smuggling from Syria has forced stricter rules
of engagement. Hiyari noted that communications with the Syrian side have not
been fruitful for a long time, which prompted Jordan to change its engagement
policy. “We got a very positive response from the Syrian government... but on
the ground that does not last for long,” he added. “We have confirmed
information that some Syrian checkpoints cooperated with some smugglers in some
cases... some checkpoints affiliated with the Syrian army helped smugglers and
provided protection,” he revealed. “But we cannot be certain that this was done
on instructions from the Syrian army -- perhaps these are cases of corruption in
these checkpoints,” Hiyari said. On January 27 the army said it killed 27
traffickers in a clash as they tried to enter the kingdom from Syria. It was the
deadliest confrontation yet in the army’s fight against smugglers. Three other
alleged traffickers have been killed in separate operations this year. Hiyari
told reporters that large amounts of illegal drugs have been seized since the
beginning of the year. This included 17,348 packs of hashish and more than 16
million Captagon pills -- compared to 15.5 million pills for all of 2021 and 1.4
million pills in 2020. “Jordan is waging an undeclared war along the border
against drug traffickers and those who back them,” Hiyari said.
Sisi Stresses Egypt’s Interest in Developing Partnership
with Europe
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi held talks on Thursday with President of
the European Commission Ursula Gertrud von der Leyen, on the sidelines of his
visit to Brussels. Sisi headed to Brussels to participate in the sixth European
Union-African Union Summit, held on Feb. 17 and 18, under the theme "Africa and
Europe: Two Continents with a Shared Vision until 2030." He underscored the
importance of developing and deepening the traditional partnership between Cairo
and the European Union. Egypt and the EU share the Mediterranean region, which
had a major impact in extending bridges of civilizational, cultural, commercial
and political communication between Egypt and the European continent throughout
the history, Sisi said. Presidential spokesman Ambassador Bassam Rady said Von
der Leyen welcomed Sisi’s visit to the EU headquarters. She stressed keenness to
communicate regularly with the Egyptian president, describing Egypt as an EU key
strategic partner. She said the EU looks forward to bolstering cooperation with
Cairo at various levels, in light of in light of its regional and international
political influence. According to Rady, the meeting focused on following up on
the developments of bilateral ties, especially in the fields of new and
renewable energy, infrastructure and green transformation. Both sides agreed to
cooperate in the fight against illegal migration, extremist ideology and
terrorism. Rady said they discussed the most important political issues of
common interest in the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa regions. Von
der Leyen underlined the great importance the EU attaches to Egypt’s pivotal
role in achieving balance in all regional issues. Sisi also held extended summit
talks with Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo in Brussels, in the presence
of the delegations of the two countries. Rady said the meeting touched on
various issues of common interests, especially the development and management of
ports and logistics, as well as clean and renewable energy and the green
transformation. De Croo lauded Egypt’s remarkable efforts, led by Sisi, in
combating extremist ideology and consolidating the principles of freedom of
belief, tolerance and acceptance of others, as well as efforts to empower women
and launch the National Human Rights Strategy.
OPEC+ Would Seek to Bring Iran into Oil Supply Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
OPEC+ will work to integrate Iran into its oil supply-limiting accord should
agreement be reached on reviving its nuclear deal with world powers, sources
close to the group said, seeking to avoid market share competition that could
hit prices. A successful outcome to the talks could lift US sanctions on Iran's
exports, according to the International Energy Agency, potentially bringing 1.3
million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil back into the market. That could
ease tight global supply and take some heat out of a rally that has taken
benchmark prices to just a few dollars short of $100 a barrel, Reuters reported.
Due to the impact of sanctions on its exports, Iran is exempt from the existing
deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies,
known as OPEC+, to limit oil supply. While that exemption allows Iran to boost
output, OPEC+ would eventually seek to bring Iran into the accord, sources said.
"It is very likely OPEC will adjust Iran into the deal, as there is no other
option," said an OPEC+ source, who added that an agreement on reviving the
nuclear accord looked close. A source familiar with Iranian thinking said Iran
would first seek to restore its lost output, but would likely, after talks with
OPEC+, agree to a quota. Iran is one of the five founding members of OPEC. Iran
is pumping about 2.5 million bpd, some 1.3 million bpd less than in 2018 when
former US President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the nuclear
accord and re-imposed sanctions, drastically cutting Tehran's oil income. "With
the lifting of sanctions, Iran will increase its oil production according to its
facilities, capabilities and interests, to compensate for its lost oil
revenues," the source familiar with Iranian thinking said. "In my opinion, OPEC+
will set a quota for Iran's oil production but will apply it gradually, and Iran
will accept the quota with some bargaining to show its support for OPEC."
'OPTIMISTIC' ON IRAN ISSUE
OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo, asked if OPEC+ would work out a new
supply agreement that included Iran, said the group's track record gave grounds
for confidence. "Having survived the last five years since the establishment of
the historic partnership between OPEC and non-OPEC that helped us to navigate
through two oil cycles, we have every reason to remain reasonably optimistic
going forward," he told Reuters. OPEC+ is gradually boosting oil output after
making record cuts in 2020 when demand collapsed due to the pandemic. But it has
failed to hit its target because some producers did not make the investment or
do the maintenance needed on oilfields during the pandemic to keep those
facilities ready to increase output quickly. For the United States, it would
make sense to lift the sanctions on Iran to help lower prices given the domestic
pressure the administration of President Joe Biden is facing due to rising
inflation. The United States may also be considering that any output from Iran
would ease the impact on global oil markets of any conflict between Russia and
the Ukraine, a source familiar with Russian oil thinking said. "The US will
surely lift the sanction from Iran as soon as they decide to put more pressure
on Russia given the current tensions over Ukraine," the source said. "Iranian
oil will cool oil prices."
PLUG QUOTA GAP
OPEC+ sources have also made the point that extra Iranian supply could also help
plug the hole in OPEC's output target misses. OPEC+ has not dealt with this
issue by, for example, having larger producers step in to boost output to
compensate for those who cannot. These talks can be difficult as they encroach
on sensitive topics such as national prestige and market share. But any nuclear
deal will most likely force OPEC+ to rearrange its quotas to make room for
Iranian barrels, as in previous years. When Tehran last returned to the fold
from US sanctions in 2015-2016, it negotiated strongly among oil producers for
its own interests by first refusing to take part in a proposed output "freeze"
to address oversupply as it recovered output. Later, during talks to form OPEC+
in 2016 while the other producers were agreeing on production cuts, Iran
eventually secured a quota that allowed it to increase output, citing the impact
of sanctions that had squeezed its market share. Still, a third OPEC+ source
said the group would not shy away from talks on a return of more Iranian oil to
the market, and has a track record of tackling similarly thorny issues. "We will
deal with it very well," this source said. "OPEC has been around for 60 years
and we can deal with all issues."
Hamas Calls on Australia to Reverse Decision Listing It as Terror Group
Ramallah-Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
The Palestinian Hamas movement rejected Australia’s intention to list both its
military and political wings as terrorist. Senior Hamas official Ismail Radwan
condemned the Australian decision as biased in favor of Israel, which hailed the
decision as a further step in the fight against terrorism. Hamas stressed that
the Australian government’s designation contradicts international law, which
guarantees the right of peoples to resist the occupier, and ignores the
oppressive practices of the occupation against the Palestinian people as
documented by international human rights reports. It referred to the latest
report by the Amnesty International, which called for accountability for the
crime of apartheid against Palestinians. It called on the Australian government
to reverse the decision, which “harms its reputation of respecting human rights
and recognizing international laws and norms.” The Australian government
announced its intention to list the entirety of Palestinian Hamas group as a
terrorist organization under the country’s criminal code, Home Affairs Minister
Karen Andrews said on Thursday. A listing by Australia of the whole group,
rather than just its military wing as at present, would bring Canberra’s stance
in line with the United States, the European Union and Britain. Canberra had
previously listed Hamas' al-Qassam Brigades as a terror group, but the new
designation will list the organization in its entirety. “The views of Hamas and
the seven other violent extremist groups listed today(Thursday) are deeply
disturbing and there is no place in Australia for their hateful ideologies,”
Andrews said in a statement. She pointed out that Australia also added the
US-based far-right extremist group National Socialist Order, formerly known as
Atomwaffen Division, joins Islamist groups Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and Hurras
al-Din to the list.
Another four Islamist militant groups - the Abu Sayyaf Group, al Qaeda, al Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb, and Jemaah Islamiyah - have been relisted under the
code, she added. The designation will place restrictions on financing or
providing other support to Hamas -- with certain offenses carrying a 25-year
prison sentence. “It is vital that our laws target not only terrorist acts and
terrorists, but also the organizations that plan, finance and carry out these
acts.” Israel has maintained a blockade on the Gaza Strip since 2007, when Hamas
took power in the impoverished enclave. “I welcome the news that Australia will
list Hamas as a terrorist organization in its entirety,” Israeli Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett said in a statement, thanking Australian Prime Minister Scott
Morrison for the move.
Pelosi Opens Conference to Support Palestinian Companies
with $250 Mln
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Palestinians underscored the two-state solution and demanded US House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi take practical steps to recognize Palestine as a country. Pelosi
had kicked off a visit to Israel and the Palestinian territories on Wednesday.
Israeli leaders tried to limit her visit to emphasizing bilateral ties and
ignoring her statements about a two-state solution. Pelosi participated on
Thursday in Ramallah at the US Agency for International Development (USAID)
conference for supporting Palestinian commercial and industrial projects worth
$250 million. She said the US is committed to promoting peace and security to
Palestinians and Israelis and to supporting a two-state solution. The conference
launched the USAID Small and Medium Enterprise Assistance for Recovery and
Transition (SMART) to help Palestinian businesses recover and grow after the
coronavirus pandemic. The funds for the program were allocated through the Nita
M. Lowey Middle East Partnership for Peace Act (MEPPA) that was passed by
Congress in December 2020. It includes US funding for Israeli-Palestinian
dialogue programs and Palestinian business development. While visiting the
Knesset earlier this week, she reiterated the unwavering US support for Israel.
Pelosi said the United States is proud to have Israel as an ally and will
continue supporting its security and stability, amid the threat from Iran. “We
are together in the fight against terror posed by Iran and its nuclear
development,” Pelosi stressed. “It’s a threat to the world. Israel’s proximity
to Iran is a concern to all of us and the responsibility of all of us.”
Egyptian, Spanish Naval Forces Conduct Joint Drill in
Mediterranean
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Naval forces from Egypt and Spain conducted joint military exercises as part of
the Northern Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea with the participation of frigates
from both countries, Egypt’s armed forces said on Thursday. “The drill is part
of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ plan to upgrade the level of its training and
exchange military experience with various countries,” they stated. The
participating units carried out several training exercises to address threats to
the flow of global trade and the freedom of international navigation, with the
aim to maintain maritime security. They also trained on joint protection for a
vital target at sea and carried out tactical sailing formations and
transportation exercises. Egypt’s maritime forces has recently conducted
exercises in the Red Sea during the International Maritime Exercise/Cutlass
Express (IMX/CE) 2022. The largest multinational training exercise in the Middle
East, IMX/CE 2022, involved more than 60 nations and international
organizations. A military statement at the time said forces implemented several
theoretical and practical training activities to unify maritime concepts among
the participating countries. They also trained to counter atypical maritime
threats, implement maritime security measures and secure cargo ships.
Canadian Parliament cancels as Police vow to end protest
NNA/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Canada's House of Commons canceled its work on Friday amid rapidly increasingly
signs police were about to begin breaking up the three-week protest by hundreds
of truckers angry over the country's COVID-19 restrictions. Ottawa police made
it clear on Thursday they were preparing to end the siege near Parliament Hill
and remove the more than 300 trucks. The city's interim police chief warned that
"action is imminent."House of Commons Speaker Anthony Rota warned lawmakers on
Friday to "stay away from the downtown core until further notice" because of an
expected police operation. Lawmakers had been able to work uninterrupted for the
last three weeks despite the protests outside by the self-styled Freedom Convoy.
--Associated Press
Israel, Citing 'Bias,' Won't Cooperate with U.N. Rights
Team
Associated Press/Friday, 18 February, 2022
Israel has formally announced it would not cooperate with a special commission
formed by the United Nations' top human rights body to investigate alleged
abuses against Palestinians, saying the probe and its chairwoman were unfairly
biased against Israel. The decision, delivered in a scathing letter to the
commission's head, Navi Pillay, further strained what already is a tense
relationship between Israel and the U.N.-backed Human Rights Council in Geneva.
"It is obvious to my country, as it should be to any fair-minded observer, that
there is simply no reason to believe that Israel will receive reasonable,
equitable and non-discriminatory treatment from the Council, or from this
Commission of Inquiry," said the letter, signed by Meirav Eilon Shahar, Israel's
ambassador to the U.N. and international organizations in Geneva. The council
established the three-person investigative commission last May, days after an
11-day war between Israel and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. Over 260
Palestinians, including scores of women and children, were killed in the
fighting. Fourteen people died in Israel. At the time, the U.N. High
Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Bachelet, said that Israeli actions,
including airstrikes in civilian areas, might have constituted war crimes. Since
then, a number of international rights groups, including Human Rights Watch,
have said Israeli attacks appear to have constituted war crimes. Both Bachelet
and HRW have also said that indiscriminate Hamas rocket fire at Israeli cities
also violated the international laws of war. Israel blames Hamas for civilian
casualties, saying the group uses residential areas for cover while carrying out
military activities. Many rockets were fired from neighborhoods.
But the commission's responsibilities go well beyond the Gaza war. A "Commission
of Inquiry" is the most potent tool of scrutiny of rights violations and abuse
at the council's disposal. The assigned mandate of this one is to monitor
alleged rights violations in Israel, Gaza and the occupied West Bank. It is the
first such commission to have an "ongoing" mandate. Israel has long accused the
United Nations, and particularly the Human Rights Council, of bias. Israel is
the only country in the world whose rights record comes up for discussion at
every council session. Israel has also raised concerns about the council's
makeup, saying it includes countries with poor rights records or open hostility
toward Israel. China, Cuba, Eritrea, Pakistan, Venezuela and a number of Arab
countries sit on the 47-member council. Israel also has repeatedly rejected
international calls for investigations into its wartime conduct and treatment of
the Palestinians. The International Criminal Court in the Hague has opened an
investigation into possible Israeli war crimes -- a probe that Israel says is
motivated by anti-Semitism and part of an international campaign to
"delegitimize" it.
"This COI is sure to be yet another sorry chapter in the efforts to demonize the
State of Israel," Eilon Shahar said. Her letter took personal aim at Pillay, who
is a predecessor of Bachelet as U.N. human rights chief. It said Pillay, a
former South African judge, has endorsed "the shameful libel" branding Israel an
apartheid nation and backed the international Palestinian-led boycott movement
against Israel. The ambassador was responding to a Dec. 29 letter from Pillay to
Israel's government, obtained by The Associated Press, asking Israel to
"reconsider its position of non-cooperation" expressed after the commission was
created. Pillay wrote that the commission would "need" to visit Israel and
occupied Palestinian areas and requested a visit in the last week of March. She
said the commission sought to travel along with six to eight staffers. The
ambassador's letter all but ensures the commission will not obtain such access
or Israeli government cooperation. Opponents of Pillay have highlighted what
they allege is an anti-Israel bias shown by her. That included, for example,
comments she made in 2017 to an interviewer about the definition of "apartheid"
as a crime against humanity under the International Criminal Court's Rome
Statute. She said that "it means the enforced segregation of people on racial
lines, and that is happening in Israel." Pillay also had said: "The government
of Israel really resents a comparison between apartheid South Africa and
Israel." She has not responded publicly to allegations of anti-Israel bias that
emerged since her appointment. The commission said in an e-mail to the AP on
Thursday that its members "do not intend to make public statements nor publicize
their communications between the concerned parties so as to preserve the
integrity of the work they are carrying out."The council president, Ambassador
Federico Villegas of Argentina, defended the selection of the commission members
— which also include Chris Sidoti of Australia and Miloon Kothari of India —
saying the president "places the utmost importance on examining the independence
and impartiality of each member in order to ensure the objectivity of the body"
and considers their skills and experience in appointing its members. A growing
number of rights groups, including Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and
local Israeli groups, have said that Israeli treatment of Palestinians,
including its own Arab minority, amounts to apartheid. Israel vociferously
rejects the label as anti-Semitic.
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February 18-19/2022
Biden’s Weakness Puts Strong Iran Deal Out of Reach
Mark Dubowitz & Bradley Bowman/Real Clear Defense/February 18/2022
Talks on Iran’s nuclear program in Vienna are entering a pivotal stage.
President Joe Biden, viewed increasingly by Americans as a weak leader, is eager
for a policy win. Sensing Biden’s weakness, Tehran hopes to foist a bad deal on
Washington that no strong occupant of the oval office would or should accept.
When Americans believe a president is weak, it can result in hand wringing or
jubilation among the respective partisans focused on the next election. But when
foreign adversaries believe the president of the United States is weak, the
consequences can be dire. Unfortunately, that dynamic is on full display in the
administration’s nuclear negotiations in Vienna. It takes strength to reject a
bad deal or negotiate one worthy of bipartisan support. Sadly, Biden seems to
lack the fortitude to do either.
In fact, the Biden administration may be on the verge of accepting an agreement
with the Islamic Republic of Iran that abandons American victims of Iran’s
terrorism, enriches a regime led by mass murderers, and provides it with a
patient pathway to a nuclear weapons capability.
The White House, of course, rejects any suggestion regarding Biden’s weakness.
But polling numbers reveal the reality. A Gallup Poll released on January 25
found that only 37% of Americans viewed President Joe Biden as “a strong and
decisive leader.” That number is only slightly worse than the 38 percent of
respondents who said Biden can manage the government effectively.
And the Gallup Poll is hardly an anomaly. YouGovAmerica interviewed a
nationally-representative sample of 1,500 U.S. adult citizens between January 29
- February 1 and found that only 30 percent of adult U.S. citizens view Biden as
a strong leader.
In the context of domestic politics, it is easy to see why most Americans don’t
view Biden as a strong and effective leader. Biden, for example, frequently
boasts about his decades of experience in the U.S. Senate, his relationships in
that body, and his congressional know-how. Yet he has been unable to even
persuade two hesitant senators in his own party to support his top legislative
priority.
Unfortunately, Biden’s difficulties have not stopped at the water’s edge.
In Afghanistan, President Biden ignored the warnings of military commanders and
the U.S. intelligence community and abandoned a beleaguered democracy to the
depredations of the misogynist and murderous Taliban, conducting a withdrawal
based on self-delusions that disregarded conditions on the ground and brushed
aside calls for a course correction.
The chaos of the August withdrawal put U.S. service members in horrible
situations and featured heart-wrenching images of Afghans clinging to the bottom
of departing American aircraft. As a direct result of Biden’s decision, the
al-Qaeda-linked Taliban once again governs Afghanistan, enjoying a safe haven
there as it did on September 11, 2001.
Biden's poor decision on Afghanistan, exacerbated by disastrous implementation,
clearly made an impression in adversary capitals. The Islamic Revolutionary
Guard Corps (IRGC) top commander, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami proclaimed a month
after the Afghanistan withdrawal that, “The America of today is not the America
of the past 10, 20, or 30 years.”
Maj. Gen. Salami and his peers may have also noted with satisfaction Biden’s
approach toward Tehran’s terror proxy in Yemen, the Houthis. Less than a month
after assuming office, ignoring the Houthis' continued terrorist activities, the
Biden administration revoked the U.S. government’s designation of the group as a
foreign terrorist organization. The Houthis, of course, simply continued their
atrocities and redoubled their bombardment of civilians in Saudi Arabia.
The Houthis widened the Yemeni civil war last month by launching ballistic
missiles at a base in the United Arab Emirates that the Houthis knew houses U.S.
service members. If defenses had not intercepted the incoming missiles, many
Americans might have died, not to mention Emiratis.
What tangible steps did Biden take to retaliate against the Houthis or their
Iranian patrons? You guessed it: We saw little more than strongly worded
statements from Washington.
This pattern of White House weakness may explain why the radical regime in
Tehran sees an opportunity in Vienna.
A strong agreement worthy of bipartisan support in Washington would impose a
permanent ban on Iran’s nuclear program and enforce that prohibition with an
intrusive inspections regime that ensures compliance. Such an agreement would
address the ballistic missiles Iran would likely use to deliver a nuclear weapon
and would also not lift terrorism related sanctions until Tehran actually stops
supporting terrorism.
In stark contrast, under Biden’s deeply flawed proposal, Tehran does not need to
cheat to reach threshold nuclear-weapons capabilities. Merely by waiting for key
constraints to expire, the regime can emerge over the next decade with an
industrial-size enrichment program, a near-zero breakout time, an easier
clandestine path to a nuclear warhead, long-range ballistic missiles, access to
advanced conventional weaponry, greater regional dominance, and a more powerful
economy, increasingly immunized against Western sanctions.
At that point, the clerical regime will be more dangerous than it is today.
Accordingly, Biden's Iran deal would likely force a future U.S. President to
resort to military force as the only option to stop Iran's development of
nuclear weapons; the consequences of such a war against a more powerful enemy
will be even more devastating.
So, where do we go from here?
Over 1,000 United States veterans and Gold Star families targeted by
Iranian-supported terrorists wrote a letter to Biden on January 13, 2022,
pleading with the president to not lift or suspend any sanctions “until all
outstanding judgments and pending claims against Iran and the IRGC have been
fully satisfied.” It’s unclear whether Biden will listen to those Americans who
have suffered most due to Tehran’s terrorism.
The ultra-radical regime ruled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and
President Ebrahim Raisi hope they can bamboozle Biden into granting a
multi-billion-dollar bonanza in return for concessions that can be quickly
reversed. If past is prologue, Tehran would use that financial windfall to inch
toward a nuclear weapon, increase support for terrorist groups, and build an
intercontinental ballistic missile to eventually target the American homeland.
Meanwhile, Tehran will use its new 25-year comprehensive strategic partnership
with Beijing to build economic strength, making the regime less susceptible to
future U.S.-led sanctions.
Perhaps that is why nearly 200 House Republicans sent a letter to President
Biden on February 16 warning that any agreement with Iran not approved by
Congress “will be temporary and non-binding and will meet the same fate as the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).” Indeed, if a deal with Iran is
worthy of support, the administration should be willing to submit it to the U.S.
Senate for scrutiny and ratification as a treaty. A refusal by Biden to do so
repeats the mistake of the Obama administration and tells Americans everything
they need to know about the weakness of the potential agreement.
On April 14, 1984, then-Secretary of State George P. Shultz told an audience at
Kansas State University that “Negotiations are a euphemism for capitulation if
the shadow of power is not cast across the bargaining table.” Unfortunately, in
the nuclear talks in Vienna with the Islamic Republic of Iran, President Biden
is casting the shadow of weakness over the bargaining table and the primary
victim will be American national security.
It is better to have no deal than a bad deal. Biden sadly doesn’t seem to
recognize a bad deal when he sees one. The next president (or the Israeli prime
minister) may be forced to respond to Iran’s march to the bomb with military
force because of Biden’s mistakes.
*Mark Dubowitz is chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
where Bradley Bowman is senior director of the Center on Military and Political
Power.
Bipartisan Support Builds for Re-Designation of
Iranian-Backed Houthis as a Terrorist Organization
Matthew Zweig/ Policy Brief/February 18/2022
Seventeen members of Congress from both sides of the aisle sent a letter last
week to President Joe Biden requesting that he re-designate Yemen’s
Iranian-supported Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah, as a terrorist
organization. Renewed sanctions on the Houthis could have a significant effect
on their operational capabilities if aggressively implemented and enforced by
the Biden administration.
In January 2021, the outgoing Trump administration designated Ansar Allah as
both a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) and a Specially Designated Global
Terrorist (SDGT). Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo stated that if Ansar Allah
“did not behave like a terrorist organization, we would not designate it as an
FTO and SDGT.”
An FTO designation institutes a visa ban, requires U.S. banks to block the
assets of the designated organization, and establishes a broad, extraterritorial
application of criminal prohibitions on any U.S. person who provides the FTO
with material support.
The SDGT authority enables the United States to target terrorist financiers who
access the U.S. financial system. In 2019, the Trump administration strengthened
and expanded the effect of an SDGT designation to include secondary sanctions on
individuals or entities, including businesses, that allow an SDGT to use their
services. Taken together, FTO and SDGT designations are two very potent tools of
economic statecraft.
Upon taking office, Biden almost immediately reversed his predecessor’s decision
to designate the Houthis, yet did not dispute that Ansar Allah’s conduct merited
designation. Rather, Biden lifted the designations because of the putative risk
that sanctions pose to the provision of humanitarian aid to Yemen. However,
Ansar Allah has continued to engage in conduct that fits the respective
statutory and administrative criteria for its re-designation as both an FTO and
an SDGT.
In particular, Ansar Allah has repeatedly and deliberately targeted civilians,
recently killing three in the United Arab Emirates. The group has threatened
international shipping and attacked civil aviation facilities, including ones
frequently utilized by U.S. citizens. Ansar Allah also continues to rely heavily
on military and financial support from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
and has reportedly used the international financial system to facilitate the
group’s malign behavior. These activities would qualify the Houthis for
designation as an SDGT and FTO.
Thus, in addition to last week’s congressional letter, other lawmakers,
including Democrats such as House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Gregory
Meeks and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, have
expressed concern about Ansar Allah’s actions. In the face of this feedback, the
administration now appears to be debating internally whether to reverse its
delisting of the Houthis.
The United Nations and humanitarian groups have claimed that re-designating the
Houthis would further aggravate Yemen’s humanitarian plight by making it less
likely that aid organizations will be able to reach those in need. But there are
ample administrative and statutory mechanisms to manage those risks and
encourage the flow of humanitarian assistance to Yemen. For example, the
Treasury Department and State Department could issue exemptions allowing
humanitarian assistance to continue unobstructed, and both departments could
streamline interagency processes to handle requests from aid groups.
The rescission of Ansar Allah’s FTO and SDGT designations — based not on a
change in the group’s conduct but on a misapplication of U.S. humanitarian
policy — was a mistake. The Biden administration should correct that mistake. If
it refuses to do so, Congress should force the issue through appropriate
legislation mandating the application of sanctions on the Houthis while
promoting the free flow of humanitarian aid.
*Matthew Zweig is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD),
where he contributes to FDD’s Iran Program and Center on Economic and Financial
Power (CEFP). For more analysis from Matthew, the Iran Program, and CEFP, please
subscribe HERE. Follow Matthew on Twitter @MatthewZweig1. Follow FDD on Twitter
@FDD and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CEFP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan
research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
New Evidence Reveals Extent of Iranian Support for
Houthi Terrorists
Con Coughlin/ Gatestone Institute/February 18, 2022
According to Western security officials, the high level meetings between senior
members of the Houthi terrorist organisation and Iran illustrate the close
coordination that is taking place between Iran and the Houthis over the rebel
group's terrorist operations.
"There has been mounting evidence of deepening cooperation between Iran and the
Houthis, especially in terms of Iran supplying the Houthis with sophisticated
weapons, such as missiles and drones," a senior Western security official told
the author. "The meetings that took place in January prior to the attacks on the
UAE suggest the cooperation between Iran and the Houthis has increased
dramatically."
At the very least, the Biden administration needs to concentrate its energies on
both confronting the Houthis' terrorist network, as well as providing its Gulf
allies with the protection they need to defend themselves against further
attacks by the Iranian-backed rebels.
Following last month's attacks, senior UAE officials renewed calls for the Biden
administration to reimpose Washington's terrorist designation against the
Houthis, which was lifted soon after US President Joe Biden took office last
year as a goodwill gesture to Iran.
Since then there has been a marked increase in Houthi-inspired terrorist
activity.....
According to Western security officials, the high level meetings between senior
members of the Houthi terrorist organisation and Iran illustrate the close
coordination that is taking place between Iran and the Houthis over the rebel
group's terrorist operations. Pictured: Iranian Type 358 surface-to-air missiles
that were seized by the US Navy in the Arabian Sea on February 9, 2020, as they
were en route from Iran to the Houthis in Yemen. (Image source: US Navy via US
Department of Justice)
New evidence revealing how Houthi rebels in Yemen cooperate with their main
backers in Iran has shed fresh light on how Tehran is actively directing their
terrorist activities.
Iran's links with the Yemeni-based terrorist group have been under renewed
scrutiny in recent weeks after the Houthis launched a series of unprovoked
attacks against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) last month, killing three
civilians and injuring six more.
Security experts in the region have claimed that the Houthis used Iranian-made
missiles to carry out last month's attacks, which targeted Abu Dhabi
International Airport, as well as a major oil facility.
Now fresh evidence has emerged detailing how senior Houthi officials visited
Iran shortly before the attacks took place, suggesting that Iran had a key role
in helping to plan and carry out the attacks.
According to new intelligence acquired by Western security officials, and shared
with the author, a senior Houthi official visited Tehran shortly before the
attacks on the UAE took place.
The Houthi official, who has close links with the leaders of the organisation's
terrorist operations, met with a number of senior Iranian regime officials,
including Iran's recently appointed President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as the
secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani. The Houthi
official also had meetings with senior IRGC and Qods Force officials.
Earlier in the same month. the same Houthi officials met with Iran's foreign
minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, in the Gulf state of Oman, where they are
understood to have discussed the possibility of carrying out attacks against UAE
targets.
According to Western security officials, the high level meetings between senior
members of the Houthi terrorist organisation and Iran illustrate the close
coordination that is taking place between Iran and the Houthis over the rebel
group's terrorist operations.
"There has been mounting evidence of deepening cooperation between Iran and the
Houthis, especially in terms of Iran supplying the Houthis with sophisticated
weapons, such as missiles and drones," a senior Western security official told
the author. "The meetings that took place in January prior to the attacks on the
UAE suggest the cooperation between Iran and the Houthis has increased
dramatically."
Evidence that Iran is training and arming the Houthis, which have been
designated a terrorist organisation by many countries, has been growing after
Gulf security forces, backed by the US, intercepted a number of Iranian boats
attempting to smuggle Iranian-made weapons to the Houthis.
Now details have emerged indicating that the weapons used in the UAE attacks
were Iranian-made. They include the Iranian-made 351 cruise missile, which has
an estimated range of 1,000 km (600 miles), and was previously used in the
Houthis' large-scale attack on the Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019.
In November 2019, the U.S. seized a ship attempting to smuggle weapons from Iran
to Yemen, including missiles produced in Iran meant for the Houthi rebels.
The mounting evidence of Iran's role in directing the Houthis terrorist
operations against key US allies like the UAE raises fresh questions about the
Biden administration's apparent obsession with reviving the flawed 2015 nuclear
deal with Tehran. Many key Gulf allies, such as the UAE, are questioning why
Washington is so intent on cosying up to the ayatollahs in Tehran instead of
focusing on protecting the interests of their long-term allies in the Middle
East, and would like to see Washington adopt a far more rigorous approach to its
dealings with Tehran.
The new material highlighting Tehran's intricate involvement with the Houthis
will also add renewed pressure on Washington to increase its military support
for its key allies in the Gulf region to protect them from the increasing threat
from Tehran and its allies. At the very least, the Biden administration needs to
concentrate its energies on both confronting the Houthis' terrorist network, as
well as providing its Gulf allies with the protection they need to defend
themselves against further attacks by the Iranian-backed rebels.
Following last month's attacks, senior UAE officials renewed calls for the Biden
administration to reimpose Washington's terrorist designation against the
Houthis, which was lifted soon after US President Joe Biden took office last
year as a goodwill gesture to Iran.
Since then there has been a marked increase in Houthi-inspired terrorist
activity, with Gulf security officials reporting a significant uplift in Houthi
attacks.
So far the Biden administration has resisted calls to redesignate the Houthis as
terrorists. But with concerns mounting over Gulf security, the Pentagon
announced it had deployed F-22 Raptor fighter jets to the UAE last weekend as
part of an American defense response to recent missile attacks by Yemen's Houthi
rebels targeting the country.
The Raptors landed at Al-Dhafra Air Base in Abu Dhabi, which hosts some 2,000
U.S. troops. American soldiers there launched Patriot interceptor missiles in
response to the Houthi attacks last month, the first time U.S. troops have fired
the system in combat since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq.
The increased tensions caused by the recent upsurge in Houthi terrorist activity
also raise questions about the future prospects of a nuclear deal being
concluded between Iran and the world's major powers over Tehran's controversial
nuclear programme.
Western diplomats involved in the talks currently taking place in Vienna to
revive the controversial nuclear deal former US President Barack Obama helped to
broker with Tehran have expressed dismay at the slow pace of progress, and have
accused Tehran of playing for time.
But with fresh evidence of Iran's malign involvement in supporting terrorist
activity in the Middle East mounting by the day, the prospects of a new nuclear
deal being concluded become ever more remote.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a
Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
For Putin, Disquiet Is the New Quiet
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/February, 18/2022
Just days ago, Vladimir Putin seemed on the verge of the unthinkable in Ukraine,
having massed 130,000 troops on the border. Embassies withdrew staff from Kyiv,
and Washington warned of an immediate threat. Now, the Russian leader is sagely
supporting diplomatic engagement. Official footage shows tanks apparently
returning to their bases, and Russian television pundits are ridiculing Western
reports of imminent attack as hysteria. Ukrainians, the Kremlin spokesman
mocked, should set alarm clocks to ensure they don’t miss the action.
The crisis is hardly passed. Yet whatever comes next, Putin has already given a
masterclass in equivocation and confusion. He has created a state of tension
that he has every interest in sustaining. Turns out the answer to the ubiquitous
question of what Putin really wants may be deceptively simple: disquiet.
This strategic ambiguity was on display when Putin stood next to German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz earlier this week. The Russian leader declared he wanted
to resolve the current crisis “right now, immediately, through negotiations and
by peaceful means.” But he also decried Ukraine’s actions in Russian-backed
breakaway regions as “genocide,” and that same day the lower house of parliament
voted to bring to Putin an appeal to recognize the self-declared Donetsk and
Luhansk People’s Republics as independent, a “popular” demand that would amount
to an open provocation and undermine the Minsk peace accords. For now, the idea
has been set aside.
Whiplash has become a feature of late-stage Putinism. It’s a system that, at
home and abroad, requires permanent uncertainty, whether that’s about Putin’s
anointed successor or military invasion. It feeds on gaslighting and
disinformation.
Plenty of risks come with the unorthodox coercive diplomacy of the past weeks
and months, but the benefits that come with sowing anxiety — and fueling
confusion even on basic issues, like Putin’s real goals — are already clear. It
keeps the United States from directing its attention elsewhere. It forces
international focus to remain on addressing Putin’s grievances. And it enables
Russia to punch above its geopolitical weight.
That’s a win Kremlin propagandists are already claiming, in a tone set by
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. “It’s clear that our initiative on European
security… shook our Western colleagues,” he told Putin, “and means they are no
longer in a position to ignore our many previous appeals.” This matters to the
Russian leader, for whom grievances over Ukraine and the post-Cold War
settlement are deeply personal.
Russian action abroad has domestic motivations and consequences too, of course.
It would be simplistic to claim that Russia’s destabilizing gambits are a
distraction from plentiful domestic troubles — though there are many, from
inflation to squeezed household incomes and the dramatic toll that Covid-19 is
exacting on the country, with less than half of the population fully vaccinated
despite a heavily promoted home-grown jab. Such gambits are helpful, perhaps,
but Putin has long put himself above the fray of daily domestic headaches.
Rather, this uncertainty helps to maintain, without actual conflict, the state
of siege that the regime needs. Russian state television talk shows, even as
concerns built over recent days and weeks, have broadcast a stream of
us-versus-them vitriol, mockery and fury over purported Western war-mongering.
This sense of being under assault, of course, leaves Putin as the only man to
save the nation, and casts opponents, by extension, as being in cahoots with
outsiders. The only certain consequence from this crisis is the Kremlin’s even
tighter grip on any remaining form of opposition — either because an emboldened
Kremlin can silence more supposedly foreign-backed adversaries, or because it
needs to.
War is not a given. Putin no doubt recognizes that an incursion today, or even
action in Donbass, is unlikely to trigger the same sustained popularity boost he
saw after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Plenty of Russians have ties to
Ukraine and see it as an independent nation, not a historically Russian
territory. One December survey put support for sending military forces to fight
Ukrainian government troops in eastern Ukraine at just 8%.
Risks remain. Ben Noble, associate professor of Russian politics at University
College London, has argued that Putin is often wrongly perceived as a “one-man
show,” when many constituencies are involved. But he pointed out to me that in
foreign policy, the president does play an outsized role, with far fewer
individuals consulted or involved. It’s an idea underlined by the political
theater around the Donbass recognition proposals, an option structured as a
popular appeal to Putin himself.
Personalist leaders face few checks on their power and few consequences for
missteps, and so are more inclined to take gambles. They fail to assess their
limitations dispassionately and to see long-term risks clearly. They
overestimate themselves and underestimate enemies. Putin, isolated and
over-confident in his overhauled military, is no exception.
But having backed himself into an uncomfortable corner, Putin surely considers
this equilibrium a good outcome, so there’s every reason for the Kremlin to
sustain a drawn-out war of nerves. The West, armed with sanctions and cool
heads, must learn to cope.
France and its Specter
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 18/2022
"A specter is haunting France, the specter of Islam!"
This is the message that, with variations of intonation and nuance, comes from
almost all of the dozen or so declared candidates in France’s forthcoming
presidential election. This reminds those of us who witnessed the 20-yearlong
Brexit saga, of the ordeal that Britain went through to end up more divided than
ever and less able to deal with the problems that the anti-immigration discourse
occulted under a fog of pseudo-nationalism. In Britain the anti-immigration
slogan targeted citizens of European Union states but, in fact, was aimed at all
immigrants and those with foreign descent especially from Africa and Southeast
Asia. More importantly, it tried to hide Britain’s deeper problems such as
growing inequality, industrial decline, an education system in crisis, a fragile
demography, de-sacralization of political and moral authority, and fissiparous
tendencies in parts of the kingdom.
The leading candidate of the left Jean-Luc Melanchon puts the blame on
successive French administrations that have failed to continue with France’s
traditional “assimilation” policy. The Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo claims
that Muslims in France are angered at the West’s intervention in such places as
Afghanistan, Iraq and West Africa.
The Communist candidate Fabien Roussel whose party is now part-finance by
Beijing sees Muslims as victims of French imperialism and the bulk of modern day
proletariat.
The soft-right candidate Valerie Pecresse puts the blame on "uncontrolled
immigration" while the hardline hopefuls such as Marianne Le Penn and Eric
Zemmour speak of a conspiracy to overwhelm France with Muslim immigrants who
will try to turn it into a Shariah-based Islamic emirate. Zemmour calls the
alleged conspiracy "The Great Replacement" through which, step by step and chunk
of territory after chunk of territory, Muslims will evict and replace non-Muslim
Frenchies.
Almost all the candidates say they want to restore the "original" France they
claim was a model for all mankind. None, however, defines that original France
or the "source" to which they wish to return.
Always colorful in his oratory Zemmour says he is fed up with kebab and hummus
and doesn’t want France to become "a larger Lebanon". (Incidentally, I think
Lebanon wasn’t such a bad experience until Khomeinists came to wreck it!)
Pecresse says Marianne , the female bust that symbolizes the French Republic,
doesn’t wear the hijab. But she forgets that if Marianne doesn’t wear it Madonna
does. Ms. Le Penn idealizes the France of her childhood, with village churches
and fountains in little squares surrounded by flower beds.
Roussel is nostalgic about the "France of solidarity", which supposed existed in
the 1930s.
None of the candidates seem to realize that the source of the Nile can never be
the Nile, a river that is made of thousands of streams, rivulets and rivers that
form a state of becoming that manifests itself as a being. France, too, is made
of countless ethnic and religious streaks blended together for more than 2,000
years. Today’s candidates represent echoes of that diversity. Ms. Le Pen is of
Celtic origin and Ms. Hidalgo is Spanish by descent. Zemmour is of Sephardi
origin from Ottoman-ruled North Africa. Melenchon was born in Tangiers, Morocco.
Melenchon and Roussel talk of French racism. They forget that France was the
first democracy to have non-Europeans, including Arabs, in its parliament and
even the Cabinet. They also forget that France was the second nation, after the
United States, to invent the concept of citizenship that cuts across religious
and racial divides.
Pecresse questions that concept by saying that she wants "Frenchmen of the heart
, not of paper", thus ignoring French Cartesianism in favor of down-market
mysticism.
Zemmour wants to abolish the right of acquiring citizenship by birth on French
soil, basing it solely to blood, a concept that Alfred Rosenberg advocated in
the1930s Germany.
Ms. Le Pen’s spokesman Jordan Bardella speaks of "clash of civilizations"
echoing Zemmour’s assert that the American polemist Samuel Huntington said
decades ago. However, none says which civilization is at war against which.
In any case, Islam, though it has contributed to numerous civilizations, isn’t
itself a civilization but a religion. It is the French who, in their
universities and such places as the Louvre Museum bring dozens of different
civilizations, cultures and arts under the "Islamic" label. That, in turn,
legitimizes those, like the Muslim Brotherhood, the Khomeinsits, Boko Haram,
Al-Qaeda and ISIS among others, who reduce Islam to a political ideology or even
a slogan under which they pursue their quest for power.
For decades, that pursuit, has also benefited from French state financial,
political and prestige support. It was the French Interior Ministry under
Nicholas Sarkozy that created the French "Church" of Islam, granting its
leadership to the Muslim Brotherhood. Hassan al-Banna’s grandson Tareq Ramadan
was "Islamic affairs adviser" to several French governments.
Over the past three decades the French state has granted official recognition to
over 3,000 mosques and Islamic associations, enabling to benefit from tax
exemption and other pecuniary advantages worth billions of euros.
The state-sanctioned "halal" label alone produces something like $80 million a
year for state-endorsed "Islamic" groups that, according to the Interior
Ministry represent less than one percent of France’s estimated seven million
citizens of Muslim background.
In the current cultural mood in the West posing as victim could be profitable.
This has been dexterously exploited by a whole industry of "social work", not to
say social engineering with the never defined "Muslim community" as an excuse.
Jean-louis Borlot who served as Minister for Cities estimates that, since the
1990S, the French state has invested over $22 billion in suburbs inhabited by
"Muslims", with no positive impact on living standards or inter-community
relations.
The real issue, perhaps, isn’t immigration from Muslim countries - now at its
lowest since the 1980s. Of the world’s estimated 1.3 billion Muslims over a
billion live in eight countries: India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan,
Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey and Iran. With the exception of a few thousand ethnic
Kurds fleeing Turkey and a few hundred Iranians seeking political asylum none of
those countries are sending any significant number of immigrants to France.
A generation ago, for the well-heeled patrician part of the French
intelligentsia, converting to Islam was a conceit in the name of mysticism and
Sufism. Writers, publishers, choreographers, university dons and even a
Communist party philosopher, converted to different versions of the faith. In
recent years, converting to Islam has become a plebian attempt at
self-elevation. A majority of the estimated 5,000 French citizens who joined
ISIS, known as "Internet Jihadis", came from non-Muslim backgrounds or if born
in Muslim families knew little about their parental faith. In any case less that
one percent of French Muslims are regarded as practicing.
France does have an "Islamic problem". But it is of its own making and not due
to any mass Muslim immigration, which is not taking place. Philosopher Michel
Foucault legitimized Khomenist terror by describing the seizure of power by
mullahs in Tehran as "an explosion of spirituality in public life."
"Islamologist" Jacques Berque recommended Europeans to "re-read the Quran to
find answers to their political problem," demanding from a religious text
something that it cannot offer. Gilles Kepel, once a fashionable "Islam expert"
and adviser to President Jacques Chirac, saw the future of Europe in a "return
to Andalusia", where he supposes that people of all faiths lived in peace and
harmony under the Muslim Caliph.
The current presidential campaign might have provided an opportunity to
recognize that problem in its here-and-now dimensions, not in an imaginary mass
"replacement" hell or Andalusian paradise.
Question: "How can a loving God send someone to hell?"
GotQuestions.org/February, 18/2022
Answer: In order to address the question of a loving God sending someone to
hell, we need to define a few terms and correct a few wrong assumptions. Our
definitions must be biblical, and our assumptions must be correct.
We must first define the term loving God. This phrase assumes some things about
God, and answering the question at hand according to flawed assumptions leads to
wrong conclusions. Our culture defines a “loving God” as a completely
non-confrontational being who tolerates anything we want to do. But that is not
a biblical definition. First John 4:16 says that God is love. That means that He
does not possess love as we do; He is the very definition of love and therefore
cannot do anything that is unloving. The law of non-contradiction states that
something cannot be both true and untrue at the same time. So, if God IS love,
then He cannot be at the same time unloving.
So the first fallacy present in the question “how can a loving God send someone
to hell?” is the idea that allowing people to go to hell is an unloving act on
God’s part. If we humans decide that God is somehow wrong to allow unrepentant
sinners to pay their deserved penalty, then we have declared that we are more
loving than God is. We have set ourselves up as God’s judge and jury and in
doing so have closed the door to deeper understanding. Therefore, the first step
in answering this question is to agree with Scripture that God IS love;
therefore, everything He does is an expression of that perfect love.
The second fallacy presented by the question “how can a loving God send someone
to hell?” concerns the word send, which denotes an action only on the part of
the sender. If a man sends a letter, sends a request, or sends a gift, all
action was done by that man. No action was taken on the part of the letter,
request, or gift. However, this understanding of the word send cannot be applied
to the question at hand because God has given human beings freedom to
participate in their life choices and eternal destinations (John 3:16–18). The
way this question is worded implies that, if anyone goes to hell, it is the
result of God’s unilateral action, and the person being sent to hell is a
passive victim. Such an idea completely disregards the personal responsibility
God has entrusted to each of us.
“How can a loving God send someone to hell?” The entire question is wrong. A
better wording is “If God is love, then why do some people go to hell?” Romans
1:18–20 lays the foundation for the answer: “The wrath of God is being revealed
from heaven against all the godlessness and wickedness of people, who suppress
the truth by their wickedness, since what may be known about God is plain to
them, because God has made it plain to them. For since the creation of the world
God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly
seen, being understood from what has been made, so that people are without
excuse” (emphasis added).
There are several key points in this passage that give us glimpses into the
heart of God. First is the fact that people actively “suppress the truth.”
People have been given enough truth to know and surrender to God, but they
refuse it. Self-will wants to deny God’s right to tell us what to do. So, with
the truth in front of them, many people turn away and refuse to see it. Atheist
Thomas Nagel has said, “It isn’t just that I don’t believe in God and,
naturally, hope that I’m right in my belief. It’s that I hope there is no God! I
don’t want there to be a God; I don’t want the universe to be like that.”
Second, Romans 1 states that God has “made [God’s nature] plain to them.” In
other words, God has taken the initiative to make His truth known to everyone.
History has proved this since time began, as every people group has sought some
understanding of a Creator to whom they owe allegiance. Such knowledge is an
integral part of what it means to be created in the image of God (Genesis 1:27).
Romans 1:20 then says that “people are without excuse.” And to whom would they
give such an excuse? The very One who says He has made Himself known to them, if
they would only humble themselves and accept such revelations. God judges each
of us according to the truth He has given us, and Romans 1 states that we each
have enough truth to turn toward rather than away from Him.
When answering the question “how can a loving God send someone to hell?” another
facet of God’s nature comes into play. God is not only love, but He is perfect
justice as well. Justice requires adequate payment for crimes committed. The
only just punishment for high treason against our perfect Creator is eternal
separation from Him. That separation means the absence of goodness, light,
relationship, and joy, which are all facets of God’s nature. To excuse our sin
would require God to be less than just, and to allow sin-tainted humans into His
perfect heaven would render that place less than perfect. That’s why only the
perfect Son of God could go to the cross in our place. Only His perfect blood
was an acceptable payment for the debt we each owe God (Colossians 2:14). When
we refuse Jesus as our substitute, we must pay the price ourselves (Romans
6:23).
God gave us the freedom to choose how we respond to Him. If He forced us to love
Him, we would be robots. To give us no option but obedience would be a violation
of our free will. Love is only love when it is voluntary. We cannot love God
unless we have the option of not loving Him. Because God honors our autonomy, He
will never force surrender or loyalty. However, there are consequences for
either choice. C. S. Lewis summarizes this truth in his classic work, The Great
Divorce: “There are only two kinds of people in the end: those who say to God,
‘Thy will be done,’ and those to whom God says, in the end, ‘Thy will be done.’
All that are in Hell, choose it.”