English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 06/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required; and from one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/42-48: “The Lord said, ‘Who then is the faithful and prudent manager whom his master will put in charge of his slaves, to give them their allowance of food at the proper time? Blessed is that slave whom his master will find at work when he arrives. Truly I tell you, he will put that one in charge of all his possessions. But if that slave says to himself, “My master is delayed in coming”, and if he begins to beat the other slaves, men and women, and to eat and drink and get drunk, the master of that slave will come on a day when he does not expect him and at an hour that he does not know, and will cut him in pieces, and put him with the unfaithful. That slave who knew what his master wanted, but did not prepare himself or do what was wanted, will receive a severe beating. But one who did not know and did what deserved a beating will receive a light beating. From everyone to whom much has been given, much will be required; and from one to whom much has been entrusted, even more will be demanded.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 05-06/2022
Claude A Hillar Hajjar's Letter To His Beatitude, Patriarch Raei
Corona - Health Ministry: 8,472 new Corona cases, 19 deaths
Security Council Slams Attacks on UNIFIL, Urges Fast IMF Deal
Defense Minister, Del Col meet
Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz of Spain Named UNIFIL Chief
Bou Habib briefs Al-Rahi over Kuwaiti Initiative
Mawlawi: To thwart any attempt to export evil & harm to our brethrens in the Arab Gulf states
"For how long the decline in daily-living conditions?" tweets Pakradounian
Lebanon Hezbollah bloc says committed to National Accord Document
Lebanese letter to UN raises pressure on Israel to demarcate maritime borders

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 05-06/2022
Morocco Announces Death of Boy Trapped in Deep Well
Congress Wants Biden to Increase Pressure on Iran
Iran Welcomes US Sanctions Relief but Says it's Too Little
US Waives Sanctions for Iran Civil Nuclear Program
US Officials: Iran’s Nuclear Program Advanced Too Far to Re-create 'Breakout Period'
Iran’s Shamkhani Says It Has a Right to Continue Nuclear Research
China's Xi Hosts World Leader Banquet after Two Years of Isolation
Israel Dispute Erupts at African Union Summit

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 05-06/2022
ISIS After the Death of its Leader/Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2022
Putin Isn’t the Only Autocrat Rewriting History/Hal Brands/Bloomberg/February, 05/2022
A Missing Senator Shows Congress Isn’t as Divided as It Seems/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/February, 05/2022
Eurosceptic Alliance to Fight Creation of European Superstate/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 05/2022
On tolerance beyond rumours: The Abrahamic Religion/Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab News/February 05/2022
Daesh’s ‘caliph’ is dead, but a new generation is wreaking mayhem/Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 05, 2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on February 05-06/2022
Claude A Hillar Hajjar's Letter To His Beatitude, Patriarch Raei
February 05/2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106118/claude-a-hillar-hajjars-letter-to-his-beatitude-patriarch-raei/
Your Beatitude, Patriarch Raii of Bkerke-Lebanon,
Thank you for your statement and call.
But when Lebanon is under TOTAL IRANIAN OCCUPATION & PERMANENT THREAT from
Hezbollah, the Iranian Terrorist Org. & Drug Cartel in Lebanon, BKERKE should send an SOS call, a DAILY SOS, to the International Community, the UN General Assembly & Secutity Council to take immediate action and save Lebanon from sinking!
An SOS call to FULLY implement all UN resolutions, 1559/1680/1701 under Chapter 7, Art. 43...48 of the UN Charter!
An SOS call to Proclaim & Adopt Lebanon’s Permanent Neutrality!!!
BKERKE should demand NOTHING ELSE, NOTHING LESS!!!
Lebanon is sinking…
Long live a Free, Neutral & Sovereign Lebanon

Corona - Health Ministry: 8,472 new Corona cases, 19 deaths
NNA/February 05/2022
In its daily report on the latest COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced Saturday the registration of 8,472 new Corona infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 965,627. The report added that 19 deaths were also recorded during the past 24 hours.

Security Council Slams Attacks on UNIFIL, Urges Fast IMF Deal
Naharnet/February 05/2022
The members of the U.N. Security Council "took note positively of the meeting of the Council of Ministers of Lebanon on 24 January," the U.N. said in a statement. "As the Lebanese population is facing dire needs and has expressed legitimate aspirations for reforms, elections and justice, the members of the Security Council urged expeditious and effective decisions by the government to initiate measures, including the swift adoption of an appropriate budget for 2022 that would enable the quick conclusion of an agreement with the IMF," the U.N. added. Moreover, they reiterated with urgency the need to "implement previously outlined, tangible reforms which are necessary to help the Lebanese population." They also underlined the importance of delivering those reforms in order to ensure effective international support. The members of the Security Council also underlined the importance of holding "free, fair, transparent and inclusive elections as scheduled on 15 May 2022, ensuring the full, equal and meaningful participation of women as candidates and voters in the election," calling on the government to enable the Supervisory Commission for Elections to carry out its mandate, notably by providing it with adequate resources and initiating the process of nominating candidates. They also deplored recent attacks on UNIFIL by residents of south Lebanon, stressing the necessity for all parties to ensure that UNIFIL personnel are "safe and secure and their freedom of movement is fully respected and unimpeded."
Accordingly, the members of the Security Council called on the Lebanese authorities to investigate all attacks against UNIFIL and its personnel and "bring to justice the perpetrators of those incidents in accordance with the Lebanese law and consistent with Security Council resolution 2589."
They also stressed once again the need for "a swift, independent, impartial, thorough, and transparent investigation into the explosions which struck Beirut on 4 August 2020."Moreover, the members of the Security Council reaffirmed their "strong support for the stability, security, territorial integrity, sovereignty and political independence of Lebanon, consistent with Security Council resolutions 1701 (2006), 1680 (2006), 1559 (2004), and 2591 (2021), as well as other relevant Security Council resolutions and statements of the President of the Security Council on the situation in Lebanon."
Lastly, the members of the Security Council called upon all Lebanese parties to implement "a tangible policy of disassociation from any external conflicts, as an important priority, as spelled out in previous declarations, in particular the 2012 Baabda Declaration."

Defense Minister, Del Col meet
NNA/February 05/2022
Minister of Defense Maurice Selim received today the Chief of the United Nations Mission in Lebanon (UNIFIL), General Stefano Del Col, at the head of a UNIFIL delegation. General Del Col informed Minister Salim of the recent appointment by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres of Major General Aroldo Lazaro Sainz as his successor, to take up his duties at the end of February. The meeting touched on the stability that prevails in the area of ​​operations of the international forces, thanks to cooperation with the army in the southern Litani sector. In this context, Salim stressed "the importance of respecting the role of UNIFIL and facilitating its freedom to work, in cooperation with the Lebanese army, in accordance with the tasks stipulated in the relevant international resolutions, and that no problems arise between the international force and the citizens." For his part, Del Col spoke about "the importance of continuing to hold periodic tripartite meetings in Naqoura," stressing the excellent relationship prevailing between the international force and the citizens in the various towns and the constructive cooperation between UNIFIL and local administrations. He pointed out that "the events that the UNIFIL patrols were subjected to do not reflect any hostile feelings on part of citizens in that area towards the international forces."

Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz of Spain Named UNIFIL Chief
Naharnet/February 05/2022
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres on Saturday announced the appointment of Major General Aroldo Lázaro Sáenz of Spain as Head of Mission and Force Commander of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Sáenz succeeds Major General Stefano Del Col of Italy, who will shortly complete his assignment. "The Secretary-General is grateful to Major General Del Col for his exemplary service and leadership," the U.N. said in a statement. Sáenz has had "a long and distinguished career in the Spanish Army, currently serving as Adviser to the Ministry of Defense for Defense and Security cross-cutting affairs," the U.N. added. He has since 2000 served in EUROFORCE Headquarters (Florence), NATO Rapid Deployable Corps Spain (Valencia), Spanish Brigade “Guzmán el Bueno” (Cordoba) in three assignments, Brigade Commander, Regiment Commander and Chief of Staff. Sáenz has a vast international experience and has been deployed to Peacekeeping Operations: three tours in Bosnia & Herzegovina under the command of the United Nations (UNPROFOR), NATO (SFOR) and the European Union (EUFOR) respectively; and three additional tours in UNIFIL as a Liaison Officer in Naqoura, Chief of Staff and Sector East Commander. He is a graduate of the General Military Academy and Spanish Army General Staff College in Spain and has academic training in the field of diplomacy, peace and security.

Bou Habib briefs Al-Rahi over Kuwaiti Initiative
NNA/February 05/2022
Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, received at noon today in Bkirki, Foreign Affairs Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, accompanied by the director of political affairs in the ministry, Ambassador Ghadi Khoury. Following their meeting, Minister Bou Habib said: "The purpose of my visit today to this edifice is to brief His Beatitude on the Kuwaiti initiative towards Lebanon...Additionally, I updated the Patriarch on the outcome of my recent visit to the United States and other visits, because it is very important that His Beatitude knows precisely what the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is doing to reform matters, so as to receive his blessings and directives in this regard."

Mawlawi: To thwart any attempt to export evil & harm to our brethrens in the Arab Gulf states
NNA/February 05/2022
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, said via Twitter today: "A new thwart of an attempt to smuggle Captagon pills, hidden and camouflaged inside a postal parcel containing pieces of chocolate, to the sisterly State of Kuwait…We, at the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities and the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces, are on the lookout for each and every attempt to export evil and harm to our brothers in the Arab Gulf states!”

"For how long the decline in daily-living conditions?" tweets Pakradounian
NNA/February 05/2022
Tashnaq Party Secretary-General, MP Hagop Pakradounian, said via Twitter today: "The dollar exchange rate is dropping, while prices remain the same...The country is sinking into darkness and promises of electricity are disappearing within it...until when? Stagnation, lack of productivity, and the decline in daily-living conditions...for how long?"

Lebanon Hezbollah bloc says committed to National Accord Document
AP/The Arab News/February 05/2022
Lebanon’s Shia Hezbollah parliamentary bloc said on Thursday that they were committed to the National Accord Document “no more and no less,” according to spokesman Ehab Hamada. The National Accord Document is based on the 1989 Taif Agreement – officially known as the National Reconciliation Accord – that that ended the decades-long Lebanese civil war and reasserted Lebanese authority in Southern Lebanon. The agreement was negotiated in Taif, Saudi Arabia, signed in October 1989 and ratified by the Lebanese parliament in November that year. Separately, Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri said that he would not accept the postponement of the 2022 general election, scheduled to be held on May 15, “even for a minute.”Berri, whose Shia Amal Movement is a close ally to Iran-backed Hezbollah, added that what brings Saudi Arabia and Iran together is “much bigger” than what separates them. Last month, Berri’s Amal Movement and its close ally, Hezbollah, ended their three-month boycott of the country’s cabinet sessions. The two Shia movements initiated the boycott as a form of protest against the handling of an investigation into the colossal Beirut port blast in 2020. The groups have sought the removal of Judge Tarek Bitar, who has been overseeing the investigation, denouncing his “politicisation” of the probe.Lebanon has been mired since late 2019 in a deep financial crisis that has caused the Lebanese pound to lose around 90 percent of its value to the dollar and led its banking system to collapse. The crisis has led to a fuel shortage and power cuts as well as growing petrol prices and skyrocketing inflation.

Lebanese letter to UN raises pressure on Israel to demarcate maritime borders
Najia Houssari/Arab News/February 05, 2022
Lebanon’s letter stresses that “the Israeli action in that disputed area endangers international peace and security”
BEIRUT: In anticipation of US Envoy for Energy Affairs Amos Hochstein’s expected visit to Lebanon next week to discuss maritime border demarcation, Lebanon sent a letter to the UN “to shift negotiations on the southern maritime border from Line 23 to Line 29, while retaining the right to amend Decree No. 6433 in the event of reluctance and failure to reach a fair solution.”
The letter explicitly states that “the area between lines 1 and 23 to the area between lines 23 and 29, with an increase of 1,430 square km in addition to the previous 860 square km, is the disputed area, including the Karish gas field.”
In this letter, Lebanon does not abide by the “oil field in exchange for an oil field” negotiation principle, i.e. the Qana field in favor of Lebanon versus the Karish field for Israel. Rather, it includes a clear indication that the Karish field “is a disputed area, and Israel cannot continue its exploration operations nor begin extraction operations.”
Lebanon’s letter stresses that “the Israeli action in that disputed area endangers international peace and security.”
This development is considered an escalation by Lebanon to speed up indirect negotiations with Israel, which are being handled by the US under UN auspices.
The letter, addressed under the guidance of President Michel Aoun to the president of the Security Council on Jan. 28 and whose contents were just made public, stipulates that Lebanon adheres to its right to an area of 2,290 square km and not 860 square km only.
A political observer told Arab News that Aoun had sent the letter to the government but did not receive a response approving or objecting to it.
“The letter included a veiled threat aimed at accelerating negotiations and making achievements before Aoun’s mandate ends, and perhaps opening closed political doors for his son-in-law, MP Gebran Bassil, to recommend him as his successor,” the observer said.
The letter read: “Out of respect for the principle of the ‘negotiating path’ that was not reached after the indirect negotiations, one cannot claim that there is a proven Israeli exclusive economic zone, contrary to what the Israeli side claimed regarding the so-called Karish field.”
Maroun Al-Khawli, national coordinator of the Lebanese Coalition for Good Governance in Extractive Industries, said: “The letter…will constitute an impetus for negotiations between Lebanon and Israel and will speed up the process of reaching a final agreement.
“Shifting the negotiation from Line 23 to Line 29 aims to obstruct Israel’s ambition to seize the disputed area, including the Karish field, and start drilling operations, taking advantage of the absence of a Lebanese sovereign decision on this area because its oil interests and exploration contracts are ready in the disputed area.” Al-Khawli added: “There is a general consensus among the various parties inside and outside the ruling authority on the necessity of keeping internal conflicts away from the negotiations with Israel and placing this issue above all political, partisan or personal considerations.”
In late December 2021, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan submitted an objection to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres regarding “Lebanon opening the second licensing round for oil and gas exploration in offshore waters, which was announced by Energy Minister Walid Fayad in November 2021 and extends to 860 square km of a disputed area.”The Lebanese letter further underlined that Lebanon “still relies on the success of the mediation efforts carried out by the US mediator, and stresses its commitment to reaching a negotiated solution to the maritime borders, under UN auspices, which means resuming negotiations from where they were left off, regardless of any preconditions except compliance with laws. In this context, we reiterate that Lebanon has not taken any additional steps out of respect to the mediation principle.”
Hochstein’s visit to Lebanon was postponed on several occasions until the Lebanese parties agreed “to proceed with the cards they were dealt.”
Lebanon and Israel are officially still at war, and there is no demarcation of land or sea borders between the two countries. The UN had drawn what is known as the Blue Line to replace the land border, which includes several disputed areas.
Lebanon has shown some inconsistency in demarcating its maritime borders, as it drew a border from Ras Al-Naqoura to Line 23 and brought it to the notice of the UN in 2011. However, Lebanon later said this was based on wrong estimates, and the correct one was Line 29.
Lebanon demanded during the negotiation sessions an additional area of 1,430 square km that includes part of the Israeli Karish gas field in which the Greek Energean PLC operates.
However, the Lebanese request to amend the maritime border has not yet been sent to the UN because Decree No. 6433, which extends the border to Line 29, was not amended, as the Cabinet is yet to approve the amendment before referring it to Parliament.
Israel had accused Lebanon of changing its stance on the demarcation of the maritime borders during the previous round of negotiations.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on February 05-06/2022
Morocco Announces Death of Boy Trapped in Deep Well
Associated Press/February 05/2022
The Moroccan royal palace announced Saturday night the death of a 5-year-old boy who had been trapped in a deep well for four days. Moroccan King Mohammed VI expressed his condolences to the boy's parents in a statement released by the palace. The boy, Rayan, was pulled out Saturday night by rescuers after a lengthy operation that captivated global attention.

Congress Wants Biden to Increase Pressure on Iran
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
The US Senate warned President Joe Biden about the increasing Houthi attacks on US allies, and lawmakers intensified their pressure on the administration to re-designate the militias on the list of terrorism.
In a rare move, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell dedicated his daily inaugural statement to address Iran's proxies in the region, referring to the recent Houthi attacks on the UAE. McConnell said that for a third straight week, "the UAE was targeted by a Houthi missile attack, made possible by Tehran," adding that the terrorists targeted an airbase that hosts 2,000 US personnel last week. The Republican leader indicated that the US faces Iranian-backed threats alongside partners like Israel and the UAE. "But you wouldn't know it by looking at President Biden's foreign policy."
He indicated that a year ago, the State Department removed Yemen's Houthi terrorists from its list of foreign terrorist organizations, and since then, "the Iranian proxy terrorists have only increased their attacks, underwritten by Iranian money and technology." Last month the Biden Administration was reportedly considering reversing its decision. McConnell warned that if the administration chooses to "shrug or look the other way when Iran targets our friends and our interests," and if they continue to withhold military capabilities from partners threatened by Iran, then they should not pretend to be surprised when traditional US partners in the Middle East start looking to Moscow and Beijing to fill the vacuum. McConnell's statements reflect the growing concern of lawmakers about the threat of Iran's proxies to the interests of the United States in the region. Republicans accuse the White House of reluctance to redesignate Houthis on the terrorist list for fear of angering Tehran. It was reflected in McConnell's statements, who stated that the most significant distraction keeping this administration's attention from protecting its interests in the Middle East "has been its ongoing obsession with returning to the Obama Administration's failed 2015 nuclear agreement."The Republican Senator made severe accusations against Biden, saying that "by blaming their predecessor's 'maximum pressure' approach and demonstrating an unwillingness to respond forcefully to Iranian-backed terrorist attacks, the administration effectively took the threat of sanctions or military action off the table, neutering their diplomacy at the outset." Meanwhile, bipartisan representatives are increasing pressure on the US administration in this regard. Representatives Seth Moulton and Mike Waltz will soon send a letter to Biden urging him to redesignate the Houthis in Yemen as a foreign terrorist organization, a move the president said is under consideration. In the letter shared by Politico, the two officials said they understand that "removing the designation was meant to help the dire humanitarian situation in Yemen, but it has done little outside of emboldening the Houthis to escalate their attacks and block reconciliation efforts in the country."The letter discussed the importance of the partnership between the United States and the UAE, saying it is a "critical time to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with an important ally while they are under assault, reiterating our commitment to the US-UAE strategic partnership."In the face of these efforts, the liberals from the Democratic Party are resisting taking a step of this kind, saying it obstructs humanitarian aid to Yemen. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy mocked the calls for designating Houthi a terrorist organization. The Senator said in a tweet: "Designating the Houthis as a terrorist organization" sounds better than "an American blockade of food imports to Yemen to intentionally cause mass civilian starvation." But FYI, under US law, they are the same thing."

Iran Welcomes US Sanctions Relief but Says it's Too Little
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
Iran’s foreign minister on Saturday welcomed US sanctions relief intended to entice Iran back to the 2015 nuclear deal, but called it insufficient. On Friday, the Biden administration restored some sanctions relief to Iran’s atomic program as world powers and Tehran continue talks aimed at salvaging the languishing agreement. “Lifting some sanctions in a real and objective manner could be interpreted as the good will that Americans talk about,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian told reporters.However, he said the move “is not sufficient.”Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed several sanctions waivers related to Iran’s civilian nuclear activities. The move reverses the Trump administration’s decision to rescind them. It comes as US negotiators return to Vienna for what could be a make-or-break session. The waivers are ultimately intended to attract Iran back to the 2015 deal that it has been violating since former President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 and re-imposed US sanctions. In the short term, the waivers will exempt foreign countries and companies that work in Iran’s civilian nuclear sector from American penalties. The Trump administration rescinded them in May 2020. Iran has gradually distanced itself from the terms of the nuclear deal with world powers after the US pulled out of it. Iran has demanded the restoration of all sanctions relief it was promised under the deal before it returns to compliance. “Good will, in our viewpoint, means that something tangible happens on the ground,” Amirabdollahian said.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh on Saturday also called the US sanctions relief insufficient, saying Tehran expects the lifting of sanctions outlined under nuclear deal. “Everyone knows that is not sufficient,” Khatibzadeh was quoted as saying by the Iranian Jamaran news website. “Indeed, the Islamic Republic of Iran is waiting for the US to implement its duties and commitments according to the nuclear deal dimensions.”

US Waives Sanctions for Iran Civil Nuclear Program
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
The US State Department is waiving sanctions on Iran's civilian nuclear program in a technical step necessary to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement, a senior official said Friday. The resumption of the waiver, ended by the Donald Trump administration in 2020, "would be essential to ensuring Iran's swift compliance" if a new deal on controlling Tehran's nuclear program can be reached in talks in Vienna, the State Department official said. The waiver allows other countries and companies to participate in Iran's civilian nuclear program without triggering US sanctions on them, in the name of promoting safety and non-proliferation. The civilian program includes Iran's increasing stockpiles of enriched uranium. "Absent this sanctions waiver, detailed technical discussions with third parties regarding disposition of stockpiles and other activities of nonproliferation value cannot take place," the official said, insisting on anonymity. The step came as talks to restore the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, which then president Trump unilaterally withdrew from in 2018, were at an advanced stage. Joe Biden moved quickly to return to the agreement after he became president a year ago, but Iran in the meantime has moved increasingly closer to producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon.
The Vienna talks, which include Iran, the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia, are at a key stage where the parties have to make "critical political decisions," a senior US official said last week. "The technical discussions facilitated by the waiver are necessary in the final weeks of JCPOA talks," the State Department official said Friday. The US official insisted that the move was not "part of a quid pro quo," as the partners in the JCPOA talks await Iran's response on key issues. State Department spokesman Ned Price insisted this US step is a sanctions waiver for the civilian nuclear program and not broader sanctions relief. Price wrote on Twitter: "We did NOT provide sanctions relief for Iran and WILL NOT until/unless Tehran returns to its commitments under the JCPOA. We did precisely what the last Administration did: permit our international partners to address growing nuclear nonproliferation and safety risks in Iran."But even if a final deal is not reached, the department official said, the waiver is important to holding discussions on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, of interest to the entire world.
But the senior administration official who briefed reporters on the talks last week said that time was running out, and urged Tehran to make important decisions. "I think we're at the point where some of the most critical political decisions have to be made by all sides," the official said.
The official proposed direct talks between Washington and Tehran to focus on the most difficult issues separating the sides. "If our goal is to reach an understanding quickly... the optimal way to do that, in any negotiation, is for the parties that have the most at stake to meet directly," the official said.
In late January, Iran said for the first time it was open to the idea of direct negotiations with the United States, but since then has not said where it stands. Experts say the JCPOA talks could resume next week, after halting a week ago. Barbara Slavin, an Iran expert at the Atlantic Council, said the resumption of the waiver was a positive step. "It's a necessary prerequisite to restoring the JCPOA and thus a good sign that this can be accomplished," she told AFP. "These sanctions were among the dumbest and most counterproductive imposed by the former administration," she added.

US Officials: Iran’s Nuclear Program Advanced Too Far to Re-create 'Breakout Period'
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
Iran's nuclear program had advanced too far to re-create the roughly 12-month so-called "breakout period" of the 2015 pact, US officials warned. US officials said Iran is capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed officials, that Iran's "breakout period," which is the time needed to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon, had advanced significantly after the Trump administration withdrew from the deal in 2018. "The breakout time is different from how long it would take Iran to attain a nuclear weapon because, according to Western officials, Iran is believed not to have mastered all the skills to build the core of a bomb and attach a warhead to a missile."
Time is running out
The newspaper report said that the Biden administration expects a restored nuclear deal would leave Iran capable of amassing enough nuclear fuel for a bomb in significantly less than a year, a shorter time frame than the one that underpinned the 2015 agreement. Administration officials concluded in 2021 that Iran's "nuclear program had advanced too far to re-create the roughly 12-month so-called breakout period of the 2015 pact."
A revised deal
The officials told the newspaper that a revised deal needs to be reached soon to give the US and its allies enough time to respond to an Iranian nuclear buildup. It added that the "breakout period" will depend on the precise steps Iran agrees to take to dismantle, ship abroad, destroy or place under seal its stockpile of enriched uranium, machines for producing nuclear fuel, and centrifuge manufacturing capacity. Reducing the breakout time raises doubts about the Biden administration's ability to negotiate what US officials have called a "longer, stronger deal that would further restrain Iran's pathway to nuclear weapons."The officials said Washington would lift the bulk of the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration if Iran rejoins the deal. "There are ongoing negotiations in Vienna about what assurances Washington will provide to help Iran enjoy the economic benefits of a restored deal."
A State Department spokesperson declined to comment on the details of Washington's breakout assessments, saying the administration is confident a deal "would address our urgent nonproliferation concerns."Senior VP for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), Jonathan Schanzer, said that Israel remains very keen to maintain a professional relationship with the United States, despite the dispute over Iran. In an e-mail to Asharq Al-Awsat, Schanzer said that the two sides continue to explore "alternative options" if negotiations fail, despite the insistence of the US administration to reach such an agreement with Tehran. The expert believes that alternative options remain part of the US-Israeli long-term engagement strategy. Schanzer believes that the US team's exit from the negotiations was an indication to Israel that Washington's strategy in the negotiations may collapse, which would provide an opportunity to discuss "alternatives."
Direct talks
AFP quoted a senior US official, who declined to be identified, as saying that time was running out for nuclear negotiations with Iran and urged Tehran to agree to direct talks to help forge a deal. The official said that Iran's nuclear program was nearing "breakout" toward nuclear weapons capability, leaving just "weeks" to reach a deal that would put the program on hold and ease sanctions on the country. "I think we're at the point where some of the most critical political decisions have to be made by all sides" in the talks to revive the 2015 deal, the official said.
McKenzie accusations
Meanwhile, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, Frank McKenzie, said that the Iranian regime "relies on proxies to do its dirty work" in the region. McKenzie's statements come amid attempts of the Biden administration to maintain a space for different assessments about the relationship with Iran and its attempt to please its allies by raising warnings about Tehran's regional behavior. Tehran's destabilizing regional policies and its ballistic missile were excluded from the ongoing negotiations in Vienna to return to the nuclear agreement. It is now evident that the Biden administration seeks to placate its allies and partners by repeating criticism of Tehran's policies, while negotiations continue in Vienna despite warnings that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb. Israel, for its part, is urging Washington to seriously prepare for "other options" in the event of the failure of negotiations with Tehran. In a virtual seminar with the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington, McKenzie said that these operations endanger human lives by "funneling arms and other resources" to the militias, especially since the new commander of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Ismail Qaani, does not exercise the same degree of control over Iranian-aligned groups that Solemani enjoyed. "Tehran is well aware of our red lines, yet the evidence is also clear that many of these militia groups are trying in earnest to kill Americans with these attacks."
Red lines
McKenzie stressed that the continuation of the war in Yemen for more than seven years is mainly due to Iran's support for the Houthi militia. Referring to the recent Houthi attacks on the UAE, McKenzie said that the "Houthis are less interested than Iran in waging a limited war. Rather, they will recklessly use whatever capabilities the Iranians put in their hands in the pursuit of victory, regardless of the risk to human lives."He also accused them of using the population of the southern Arabian Peninsula as human lab rats in the Yemeni civil war, describing it as "an inhuman experiment in the modern war."

Iran’s Shamkhani Says It Has a Right to Continue Nuclear Research
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
Iran's top security official Ali Shamkhani said on Saturday that it has a right to continue nuclear research and development that cannot be curbed by any agreement. "Iran's legal right to continue research and development and maintain its peaceful nuclear capabilities and achievements, side by side with its security ... cannot be curbed by any agreement," Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said in a post on Twitter, Reuters reported. Earlier on Friday, the United States restored sanctions waivers to Iran to allow international nuclear cooperation projects. This came as indirect US-Iranian talks on reviving the 2015 international nuclear deal with Tehran enter the final stretch.

China's Xi Hosts World Leader Banquet after Two Years of Isolation
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted a banquet on Saturday for heads of state and international organizations attending the Winter Olympics, part of a diplomatic blitz following nearly two years without face-to-face meetings due to the pandemic. Xi has launched a diplomatic marathon in the leadup to the Games, meeting with Russian president and "old friend" Vladimir Putin on Friday and attending the Olympics opening ceremony later in the day with dozens of foreign guests. Beijing is keen to shore up international support and pull off a Games that will burnish its reputation, despite multiple countries including the United States, Australia, Britain and Canada announcing diplomatic boycotts over China's rights record. Dozens of dignitaries -- many from autocratic nations friendly to Beijing -- were treated to musical performances and a traditional handicrafts display alongside the meal at the Great Hall of the People, state media reported. This week's meetings are a striking change for Xi, who has avoided traveling abroad or meeting foreign visitors face-to-face since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. China has largely closed its borders for the last two years in a zero-Covid strategy that has seen daily infections dwindle.
Besides Putin, the banquet guestlist included Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as a handful of leaders from Europe and Asia Pacific, according to Chinese state media. Heads of international bodies including the World Health Organization's Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, whom state media said was among the Olympic torchbearers, were also invited. Xi gave a toast at the banquet calling for all present to "work together for a world of durable peace," according to an official transcript. State broadcaster CCTV said International Olympic Committee President Thomas Bach and U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres also gave speeches praising China's management of the Olympics and handling of the pandemic. CCTV showed a massive banquet table featuring a miniature winter landscape dotted with replicas of the Olympic venues as its centerpiece, lit from above by crystal chandeliers. Chefs also recreated scenes from nature using food, including a group of frolicking panda figurines. The Chinese president had individual meetings on the sidelines of the banquet on Saturday, including reaffirming his support for the Kazakh president, state broadcaster CCTV reported. Beijing in January praised Tokayev's "strong measures" against protesters after the Kazakh leader took a hardline approach to quell demonstrations -- including authorizing his forces to shoot to kill.
On Saturday, Xi told his Kazakh counterpart that China "is ready to help Kazakhstan maintain stability," according to a readout after the meeting. Xi was photographed greeting Putin on Friday with both men going maskless, even though the Russian leader had skipped the lengthy quarantine normally required in China for people arriving from overseas. The two signed a joint statement criticizing the United States' global influence and opposing the further expansion of NATO, amid a diplomatic standoff between Moscow and Washington over Ukraine.

Israel Dispute Erupts at African Union Summit
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 5 February, 2022
Palestinian prime minister Mohammed Shtayyeh on Saturday urged the African Union to withdraw Israel's accreditation, bringing simmering tensions to a head as the 55-member bloc opened a two-day summit in Addis Ababa. Even as the continent reels from a spate of military coups and the coronavirus pandemic, the relationship with Israel is expected to figure prominently during the summit this weekend. The dispute was set in motion last July when Moussa Faki Mahamat, chair of the African Union Commission, accepted Israel's accreditation to the bloc, triggering a rare dispute within a body that values consensus. As heads of state gathered in Ethiopia's capital on Saturday, Shtayyeh called on the body to reject Faki's move. "Israel should never be rewarded for its violation and for the apartheid regime it does impose on the Palestinian people," he said. "Your excellencies, I'm sorry to report to you that the situation of the Palestinian people has only grown more precarious."The summit may see a vote on whether to back or reject Faki's decision, which could yield an unprecedented split in the bloc. Israel's accreditation last year drew quick protest from powerful members, including South Africa and Algeria which argued that it flew in the face of AU statements supporting the Palestinian Territories. Earlier Saturday Faki said the AU's commitment to the Palestinian push for independence was "unchanging and can only continue to go stronger."He defended Israel's accreditation, however, saying it could be "an instrument in the service of peace" while calling for "a serene debate" on the issue.
'Resurgence of military coups'
This year's summit comes as the continent grapples with a string of military coups and the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Four member states have been suspended by the AU's Peace and Security Council since mid-2021 because of unconstitutional changes of government -- most recently Burkina Faso, where soldiers ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kabore last month. Addressing African foreign ministers this week, AU Commission chair Moussa Faki Mahamat denounced a "worrying resurgence of military coups". But the AU has been accused of an inconsistent response to the putsches, notably by not suspending Chad after a military council took over following the death of longtime President Idriss Deby Itno on the battlefield last April. The summit should discuss how to be more proactive in addressing factors that spark coups, including terrorism-related instability and frustration over constitutional revisions that extend leaders' time in power, said Solomon Dersso, founder of the AU-focused Amani Africa think tank. "It is only when crisis hits that we say, 'Gosh, how come this country is falling apart like this so quickly?'" Solomon said.
Disease and diplomacy -
On Saturday, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who is attending the summit virtually, is expected to provide an update on Africa's response to the coronavirus pandemic, nearly two years after the continent's first case was detected in Egypt. As of January 26, only 11 percent of Africa's more than one billion people had been fully vaccinated, according to the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The African Union is also facing pressure to push for a ceasefire in Ethiopia, where a 15-month war has killed thousands of people and, the UN says, driven hundreds of thousands to the brink of starvation. It is unclear whether and how leaders will address the conflict, which pits Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government against fighters from the northern Tigray region. The fact that Ethiopia hosts the AU makes any intervention by the bloc especially delicate, and Faki waited until last August -- nine months after fighting began -- to appoint Nigeria's former president Olusegun Obasanjo as a special envoy tasked with trying to broker a ceasefire. Ethiopia has also held a seat on the Peace and Security Council, though it failed in a bid to stay on the 15-member body this week, diplomats said. "AU member states should not ignore the serious crimes committed by all warring parties, including federal government forces, in Ethiopia's conflict," Carine Kaneza Nantulya, Africa advocacy director at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement Friday.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on February 05-06/2022
ISIS After the Death of its Leader
Charles Lister/Asharq Al-Awsat/February, 05/2022
Two weeks ago, ISIS launched its biggest attack in Syria and Iraq since its territorial defeat nearly three years ago, in March 2019. According to the Syrian Democratic Forces, as many as 300 ISIS militants launched an assault on al-Sina Prison in Hasakeh city late on January 20. Two suicide bombers detonated truck bombs outside the prison’s northern walls, preparing the ground for a ground assault that entered the facility, armed prisoners, took control of the northern wing, and released hundreds of battle-hardened extremists onto the streets.
After the dramatic attack, it took a week for the SDF to re-assert control of the prison, thanks in part to the intervention of British and American special forces and a series of helicopter and fighter jet strikes. By that point, nearly 120 SDF personnel and 375 ISIS fighters were dead, but sporadic fighting continued in Hasakeh’s streets throughout the second week. According to multiple well-placed sources, it would appear that at least 300 more ISIS prisoners successfully escaped and evaded recapture – a number that threatens to significantly enhance ISIS’s capabilities, whether in Syria or next-door in Iraq.
Two weeks after ISIS’s prison attack in northeastern Syria, an elite team of US Delta Force operatives landed by helicopter outside a house in Syria’s northwest and killed ISIS leader Haji Abdullah. The operation, based on months of planning and intelligence intercepts, took more than two hours and saw the ISIS leader detonate wired explosives on the buildings’ third level, killing him along with his whole family. The death of Haji Abdullah – who US officials said remained in constant contact with ISIS operatives in Syria and Iraq, as well as around the world – is likely to deal a sizeable blow to ISIS’s morale, particularly coming so soon after the prison attack, but it is unlikely to have much of an impact on ISIS’s every-day operational capabilities. ISIS has a long track record of prison attacks and this will not have been its last. A decade ago, its “Breaking the Walls” campaign in Iraq broke hundreds of prisoners out of detention and catalyzed its dramatic resurgence. These operations carry a practical purpose, in freeing members from detention, but they are also a powerful propaganda tool – demonstrating to members and supporters that ISIS stands by those who swore it allegiance. There can be no doubting that the al-Sina attack served as an enormous morale boost for ISIS’s support base, both in the Middle East and further afield.
When analyzing the attack, Haji Abdullah’s death and all the various consequences, we should first abide by a word of caution: ISIS is not dramatically resurging and it remains an exceedingly long way from replicating anything close to its gains in 2014. However, the attack must serve as a wake-up call. ISIS was not defeated when it lost its territory three years ago, it merely evolved into a different form. In fact, ISIS and its predecessors have existed since 2003 and thrived for far longer without territory than with it. ISIS is well-versed in operating as a covert guerrilla insurgency and it knows that time is on its side – particularly in Syria.
An attack of this scale on such a target raises serious questions about the sustainability of the US-led coalition’s willingness to hold 12,000 ISIS militants in a network of makeshift and poorly resourced detention facilities. Holding between 4,000 and 5,000 inmates, Al-Sina Prison was the world’s largest facility holding captured ISIS members – and yet it was merely a series of former school buildings surrounded by a large wall. Security was provided by minimally trained civilian guards, most unarmed, and security outside by the SDF, some of whose personnel were almost certainly bribed or coerced into stepping aside prior to ISIS’s attack. Beyond periodic training and provision of riot gear, US or coalition personnel have assumed no role in prison security. Once the dust settles from this attack, a serious and substantial coalition investigation should look squarely into whether ISIS did indeed infiltrate al-Sina’s security – as it has done in almost every prison break in its history. Judging by ISIS video footage from inside the prison, detainees appear likely to have known about the attack in advance, and it is well known that through bribery, ISIS prisoners in al-Sina had regular access to cell phones. The coalition should also investigate why the SDF was holding as many as 800 boys alongside experienced ISIS militants in al-Sina Prison.
In the coming weeks, the international community has some serious soul-searching ahead of it. The detention of thousands of ISIS militants without trial, in poorly resourced makeshift facilities, guarded by a non-state actor lacking any experience in mass, secure detention was always going to be a ticking time bomb. Having intervened in 2014 to reverse ISIS’s territorial gains, the international coalition holds a serious responsibility for what comes next. Little or nothing has been done since to resolve the detainee issue, let alone the crisis posed by the more than 70,000 associated women and children in internment camps like al-Hol and al-Roj. The world can no longer ‘kick the can down the road.’ The time has come to more determinedly deal with these challenges head-on, before it is too late. Ultimately however, ISIS’s attack on al-Sina Prison also underlines a very concerning trend that has been clear for some time: ISIS has slowly, quietly and methodically been rebuilding itself in Syria and Iraq since its territorial defeat in 2019. Comments from US officials following Haji Abdullah’s killing appeared to describe an ISIS leader that had maintained communication and some coordination with operatives in Syria, Iraq and further afield. In and of itself, that is a reality more in line with a confident, well-structured organization – not the weak, decentralized insurgent network previously described to us in public. If these more recent descriptions are accurate, then ISIS has recovered to a greater extent than previously thought.
Rolling back ISIS’s territorial entity was a strategically large, but relatively simple task when compared to the challenge we currently face: a complex, resource-heavy and intelligence-dependent counterinsurgency and counterterrorism campaign against an enemy hiding in the shadows. Instead of adapting to that challenge in 2019, the coalition reduced its footprint and resources, placing even more pressure on our local partners, like the SDF. The coalition must seriously consider increasing its investment in the counter-ISIS mission, to better match the challenges ahead – or otherwise risk granting ISIS the space and opportunities to continue its recovery.Finally, the international community must also acknowledge that ISIS remains what it has always been: a symptom of far bigger and deeper-rooted crises. In Syria, those crises may look different than they did in 2014, but the drivers fueling ISIS activity and providing vacuums into which to step and fissures to exploit are all still in existence. The greatest of those root causes remains the Assad regime and its reputation for brutality, corruption and incompetence, but poverty as well as ethnic, sectarian and geopolitical hostilities all play into ISIS’s hands too. In fact, re-engaging with Assad’s regime and failing to push for and to achieve meaningful and positive change for Syria and its people virtually guarantees that ISIS will benefit.

Putin Isn’t the Only Autocrat Rewriting History
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/February, 05/2022
History is a powerful weapon: Just ask Vladimir Putin, who is using it as part of his escalating campaign to undermine an independent Ukraine. And Putin isn’t the only leader who is invoking — and abusing — the past as a means of asserting global influence. Geopolitical authority often begins with historical revisionism, a pattern that is playing out across an unsettled international landscape today. The past shapes our understanding of what is and, more importantly, what should be. So the links between a country’s history and its foreign policy — or, rather, its preferred understanding of that history — have always been profound. All leaders seek to justify their statecraft through some narrative about the past. All empires use historical mythmaking to legitimize their expansion.
Americans like to believe that they live in a habitually isolationist country that only reluctantly became a global superpower. That self-perception is hard to square with the material acquisitiveness and ideological assertiveness that drove America to compile one of history’s most awesome records of geopolitical aggrandizement, from the conquest of much of North America to the creation of an informal empire spanning much of the world. Now American rivals are invoking the past to challenge the US-led international order.
Putin is an avid amateur historian. And the Russian president’s efforts to restore a Russian empire have involved rehabilitating a fallen one — the Soviet Union. As early as 2005, Putin declared that the collapse of the Soviet Union, a state responsible for murder and repression on a horrifying scale, was the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.” He has since tried to rewrite the history of World War II, arguing that the conflict resulted from Nazi aggression and Western timidity — conveniently eliding the fact that Stalin’s Soviet Union contributed mightily to that catastrophe by partnering with Hitler to carve up Europe between 1939 and 1941.
In mid-2021, Putin authored an essay arguing that Ukraine has historically been inseparable from Russia and can flourish only if it submits to Moscow’s authority. Neglected is the role of brute force and state-sanctioned famine in pulling together the Soviet Union, from which Ukraine’s leaders bolted as soon as they had the chance in 1991. Most recently, Putin’s government shuttered Memorial International, a foundation that had documented the crimes of Stalin’s regime.
Putin understands the power of the past all too well. Rehabilitating a mighty, totalitarian Soviet Union is a way of defending his own repressive governance while sanctifying the extension of Russia’s influence throughout its “near abroad.”China’s president, Xi Jinping, is also wielding history as a cudgel. Xi has revived much of the political centralization of the Mao Zedong era, by making himself “chairman of everything,” eliminating term limits, enshrining “Xi Jinping Thought” in the constitution and creating his own cult of personality. The predicable counterpart to that agenda has been a campaign against “historical nihilism,” which apparently includes dwelling excessively on the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution and other tragedies of Mao’s rule. At the same time, Xi has articulated a historical rationale for Chinese expansion. In July, he said that bringing Taiwan into the mainland’s grasp is a “historic mission” and a matter of “realizing China’s complete reunification.” The implication is that Taiwan belongs to the People’s Republic by historical right. Chinese officials have argued that Beijing has a similar claim to nearly all of the South China Sea.
Yet as the journalist Bill Hayton points out, it’s not so simple: Taiwan was never really part of the modern Chinese nation that Mao overthrew in the civil war that created the state Xi rules today, and China’s claim to the South China Sea was invented by Chiang Kai-Shek’s Nationalist government in the late 1940s. Rewriting Chinese history is thus part and parcel of Xi’s effort to create a “rejuvenated” nation with vast global power.
Other rulers are engaged in this same type of revisionism. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has minimized Hungary’s complicity in the Holocaust and its decision to ally with Nazi Germany during World War II. To rally nationalist sentiment, he has hinted at the restoration of a “Greater Hungary” based on its pre-World War I kingdom, including large parts of modern Croatia, Serbia, Romania and Slovakia. Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan is cloaking his drive for autocratic power and regional primacy in nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire; his government has talked of a “post-Ottoman space” as Ankara’s privileged domain. Iran’s clerical regime has used the legacy of the Persian Empire as justification for its efforts at hegemony in the Middle East. The outcomes of these various projects will be determined by clashes of power and influence. Yet what happens in the realm of ideas affects what happens in the realm of politics. Leaders who want a new global equilibrium are seeking authority and legitimacy from their own preferred versions of history. Grasping what Putin, Xi and other challengers want the world to believe about the past can help us understand how they envision the future.

A Missing Senator Shows Congress Isn’t as Divided as It Seems
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/February, 05/2022
Senator Ben Ray Lujan, a New Mexico Democrat, suffered a stroke last week. He’s expected to make a full recovery and to return to Washington in a few weeks. Until then, the Democrats won’t be at full strength, which is causing a fair amount of panic among some observers. After all, the party balance in the Senate is dead even, a 50-50 tie, with Democrats only holding their slim majority thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote.
As Grover once said, however, this kind of situation does not call for freaking out. In fact, assuming the timeline is correct and that no other disruptions happen, it’s really not that big a deal for the Democrats’ floor majority.
The math is simple. So far this year, Harris has only broken ties 15 times, and four of those were nominations that required two votes. That’s a lot, historically speaking; the last vice president to have voted more times was Schuyler Colfax, and he had four years to do it (1869-1873). But even if there were another handful of cases where Republicans might’ve forced a tie with full attendance, it’s not really that many compared to all the measures that Democrats have brought to the Senate floor. They’ve already taken 32 votes this year, after taking 528 last year. Some of those were due to the filibuster — on normal legislation, it takes 60 votes, rather than a simple majority, to defeat a filibuster, and Senate practice since 2009 has been to filibuster everything that can be filibustered. Missing Lujan is unlikely to matter much in those situations, although it’s possible that some bill will arise that can get exactly 10 Republicans along with all the Democrats and will therefore have to be postponed until he’s back.
Then there are those bills that are exempt from normal filibuster rules and need only a simple majority. Harris provided the winning vote at one point for the big relief bill last February, which passed using “reconciliation” rules. The same rules would also apply to the large climate-health-care-and-more spending bill that is currently stalled in the Senate. But that bill has only 49 votes, not 50, and it doesn’t seem likely that any new version that can attract the support of West Virginia’s Joe Manchin will turn up in the next few weeks.
Lujan’s absence is more likely to matter on nominations, where a simple majority is all it takes. Yet there have been exact ties on only eight of the more than 300 executive-branch and judicial nominations that have been confirmed during this Congress. It’s true that there has been significant Republican opposition to nominations that once would’ve been routine. But that opposition is rarely unanimous, meaning that 49 Democratic votes is almost always enough.
Sure, Republicans could’ve suddenly rallied together to disrupt things anyway, using Lujan’s illness as an opportunity. The first test, however, showed no sign of that — the Senate has moved forward on several nominations this week, before and after the news broke from New Mexico, with lopsided votes. Certainly, any nominations on which Republicans are united in opposition will have to be delayed. But given the huge backlog of nominees ready for Senate votes, that’s unlikely to be a significant problem.
Concern isn’t coming out of nowhere, of course. Quite a few senators in recent years have had extended absences for health-related reasons. There’s always a chance a senator will die in office or resign, and if it’s a Democrat replaced by a Republican, the Senate majority would in fact flip. And during the pandemic, the risk of another senator suddenly being unavailable for a few weeks is higher than usual (the Senate, unlike the House, does not allow remote or proxy voting in the full chamber).
Still, the record so far is a good reminder that even in this era of what seems like extreme polarization, straight party-line votes in the Senate only occur on a limited number of measures. Again, the filibuster has a lot to do with that; if 50 votes plus the vice president was all it took, Democrats would’ve advanced quite a few more bills and some of them would pass with the smallest possible majority. Yet even though the most conservative Democrats are more liberal than the most liberal Republicans, lots of measures either are moderate enough that they’ll draw the votes of a few Republicans, or liberal enough that Manchin opposes them and therefore Democrats won’t bring them up for a vote. And as contentious as nominations have become, only a fraction of them end up passing on party-line votes.
None of this is to say that polarization isn’t important. It’s probably the most important thing to know about Congress right now. But it’s not the only thing to know. And remember that both parties, especially Republicans in the minority, have strong incentives to emphasize and even exaggerate how large the gulf between them really is.

Eurosceptic Alliance to Fight Creation of European Superstate
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/February 05/2022
"There is a growing threat that seeks to transform the European Union into an ideologically charged federalist super-state; a corporation which disregards national identity and sovereignty, and therefore democracy, plurality and the interests of the citizens of the nations that form the Union. This drift endangers the Union itself by moving away from the Christian European ideals on which it was founded.... We should cooperate and join forces to protect Europe from enforced ideologies and anti-democratic drift that are leading to its downfall." — Joint Statement, Madrid Summit, January 29, 2022.
"European institutions cannot become a tool of social engineering aiming at creating a new 'European nation.' Examples of such social engineering could be, among other things, the attempts to ideologically alter our languages in a way which will detach a human being from their culture and heritage, like the recent decision of the European Commission to remove the word 'Christmas' from the public sphere." — Joint Statement, Warsaw Summit, December 4, 2021.
The signatories said that the EU has become a tool of "radical forces" that are determined to carry out a civilizational transformation of Europe. They accused conservative establishment parties in Europe of having abandoned traditional Judeo-Christian values ​​and of aligning themselves with leftist positions for political gain.
"The slightest national decision that does not correspond to the wishes of the European institutions is now the subject of blackmail: that is not what the Europe of freedoms is! We love Europe because we love our nations. And we will defend Europe because we defend our nations!" — Marine Le Pen, President, France's National Rally party.
"What brings us together is stronger than what separates us: the fight for our civilization!" — Nicolas Bay, MEP for France's National Rally party.
"With regard to major European issues such as more effective external border protection, greater economic independence for Europe and a common, more restrictive migration policy that is completely diametrically opposed to the current one. We all agreed." — Marlene Svazek, Chairwoman, Freedom Party of Austria.
Leaders of European conservative and populist parties met in Madrid on January 28-29 to build a unified political front aimed at defending traditional Judeo-Christian values and the sovereignty of European nation states. The so-called Madrid Summit marked an important milestone in efforts to create a continent-wide alliance to fight the federalist, globalist and anti-democratic drift of the European Union. Pictured: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán speaks to the media during the summit, on January 29, 2022.
The leaders of European conservative and populist parties met in the Spanish capital of Madrid on January 28-29 to build a unified political front aimed at defending traditional Judeo-Christian values and the sovereignty of European nation states.
The so-called Madrid Summit — held under the motto "Defending Europe" — marked an important milestone in efforts to create a continent-wide alliance to fight the federalist, globalist and anti-democratic drift of the European Union.
The two-day closed-door summit, hosted by Spain's conservative party Vox, was attended by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, as well as by the leaders and representatives of conservative parties from Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Romania.
The conservative eurosceptic leaders, who vowed to work together more closely in the European Parliament, issued a joint statement that outlined the challenge as well as a path forward:
"The European Community was forged as an area of free cooperation between sovereign states. However, there is a growing threat that seeks to transform the Union into an ideologically charged federalist super-state; a corporation which disregards national identity and sovereignty, and therefore democracy, plurality and the interests of the citizens of the nations that form the Union.
"This drift endangers the Union itself by moving away from the Christian European ideals on which it was founded. Today, some bureaucrats and some parties mistakenly believe that they can promote agendas without democratic legitimacy which go against the needs of Europeans and the survival of Western civilization itself.
"Faced with this situation, we, the participants of the Summit, commit ourselves to defend Europe from external and internal threats. We will confront the currents that advocate a European Union which is alien to its history and which, detached from reality, lead to demographic suicide and societal transformation. Europe is in demographic decline. We have to support pro-family policies.
"We love Europe because we love our nations. And we will defend Europe because we defend our nations. That is why we will not cease to demand a Union focused on common European values, on people, on their families, on the protection of their borders and on the freedom to have energy, industry, and a strong primary sector. We have to regain the culture of mutual respect among Member States and with the EU institutions, where constitutional identities are safeguarded and not criticized. We denounce the politically motivated attacks from Brussels against Poland and Hungary which demonstrate a complete disregard of basic EU principles and violate the spirit of the Treaties.
"In short, we should cooperate and join forces to protect Europe from enforced ideologies and anti-democratic drift that are leading to its downfall."
The joint declaration included nine action points at the EU level, including commitments to: improve border protection; crack down on illegal immigration; ensure that asylum seekers can enter the EU only after asylum has been granted; work toward greater European energy independence; and defend the primacy of national constitutions over EU law.
In a surprising display of unity, Orbán and Le Pen — who are friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin — agreed to insert a paragraph in the joint declaration that condemns Russia's threats against Ukraine. The leaders vowed to:
"Work to ensure that the nations of Europe act in solidarity in the face of the threat of external aggression. Russian aggressive actions on Europe's eastern border have led us to the brink of war. Solidarity, decisiveness and defense cooperation between the nations of Europe are needed in the face of such threats."
The joint declaration also pledged to establish a "coordination office" in Brussels to "join forces and speak with one voice as often as possible at the European level vote in the European Parliament on the aforementioned issues."
Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki said that Europe's future rests on sovereign states:
"We have shown that there is a different future for Europe, which is based on sovereign countries, not on any centralized structure that takes away powers from states.
"We showed each other that we think almost alike about such important issues as the Russian threats towards Ukraine, migratory pressures, energy issues, with very high gas prices being the result of manipulations on the part of Russia.
"The most important thing is to be united in our values ... and create a document presenting an alternative to the future of Europe. I hope that we are the alternative to the future of Europe."
Eurosceptic Alliance
The Madrid Summit is the second official meeting of eurosceptic leaders. It builds on the first such summit held in Warsaw, Poland, in December 2021. The Warsaw Summit declaration stated:
"The participants of the conference share a common and deep conviction that the EU is made up of free and equal nation states, bound by numerous areas of close cooperation. We share this conviction with many millions of citizens across EU member states.
"Only through such a European cooperation can we save the EU from further crises and tensions, and put a stop to the disturbing idea of creating a Europe governed by a self-appointed elite. We reject the arbitrary application of Union Law, bending or even violating the Treaties. Only the sovereign institutions of the states have full democratic legitimacy. European institutions do not enjoy the same legitimacy, and therefore should play a subservient role in the political architecture to the nation state.
"Equally, for this reason they cannot become a tool of social engineering aiming at creating a new 'European nation.' Examples of such social engineering could be, among other things, the attempts to ideologically alter our languages in a way which will detach a human being from their culture and heritage, like the recent decision of the European Commission to remove the word 'Christmas' from the public sphere. Such a concept of the nation has never existed, does not exist today nor can it exist in the future. The participants declare their will to cooperate in the spirit of solidarity, at various levels and forums with all the parties and organizations that hold Europe's unique heritage and the idea of a Europe of Nations dear."
The two summits are the result of the July 2021 "Joint Declaration on the Future of the European Union," an agreement by 16 eurosceptic parties to jointly oppose efforts by European federalists to transform the European Union into a godless multicultural superstate.
The signatories said that the EU has become a tool of "radical forces" that are determined to carry out a civilizational transformation of Europe. They accused conservative establishment parties in Europe of having abandoned traditional Judeo-Christian values ​​and of aligning themselves with leftist positions for political gain.
The author of the July 2021 document, former Polish President Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said that the EU is "preparing to carry out a cultural revolution that will destroy social structures, starting with the family and traditions, and create a new man." He added: "We don't want this revolution, which we believe will bring unhappiness and a drastic decline in the freedoms of individuals and countries."
An obstacle to building an effective alliance to fight European federalism in Brussels lies in the fact that the conservative eurosceptic parties belong to different political groups in the supranational European Parliament. Members of the European Parliament are organized into ideological groups — currently there are eight different political groups — and may only belong to one group.
Some conservative parties — the Bulgarian National Movement (IMRO), the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania–Christian Families Alliance (LLRA–KSS), Poland's Law and Justice (PiS), Romania's Christian Democratic National Peasants' Party (PNT-CD) and Spain's Vox — belong to the center-right European Conservatives and Reformists Group, which advocates for long-term reform of the European Union, but does not want to exit the bloc.
Still others — the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), Belgium's Flemish Interest (VB), the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), France's National Rally (RN) and Italy's Lega — belong to the more hardline eurosceptic Identity and Democracy group, some of whose members have advocated for the abolition of the euro, Europe's single currency.
Meanwhile, Hungary's ruling party, the Hungarian Civic Alliance (Fidesz), recently left the European People's Party (EPP) and currently does not belong to any political group in the European Parliament.
The long-term goal of uniting all the eurosceptic parties into a single "supergroup" is easier said than done. They hold different positions on a wide range of domestic and foreign policy issues. Those differences — including economic policy and relations with Russia — will be difficult to paper over.
For instance, although Orbán and Le Pen agreed to include criticism of Russia in the Madrid Summit's joint statement, Orbán subsequently met with Putin at the Kremlin and pledged to cooperate with Moscow. At the same time, Le Pen omitted the paragraph about Russia from the French translation of the joint declaration.
Moreover, neither the leader of Italy's Lega party, Matteo Salvini, nor the three co-leaders of Germany's Alternative for Germany party, attended the Madrid Summit.
Salvini, once at the vanguard of Europe's anti-EU movement, has seen his eurosceptic reputation tarnished by his decision to join the pro-EU government of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi. "I can be in a pro-Europe government while dreaming of a different Europe," Salvini said recently. In any event, Lega was represented in Madrid by Italian MEP Paolo Borchia.
Comments by Signatories
In opening remarks at the Madrid Summit, the leader of Spain's Vox party, Santiago Abascal, said:
"We are all allies. We are all united by our values. If we want to ensure the well-being of our compatriots in Europe, we must change the current course. We must work together to free our citizens from this crisis. There is a lot at stake — our survival as nation states. It is our duty to pass on traditional values ​​to the younger generations."
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki added:
"Today we face many threats. Together we must find the answer to them. We must win the dispute over the sovereignty of nation states, which is threatened by European institutions that usurp rights that go beyond Community law. We must fight together to ensure that freedom means freedom, democracy means democracy and that sovereignty is guaranteed."
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán emphasized:
"We need to strengthen and consolidate common values ​​that are based on Christian values. We need to create a new platform for cooperation to make our positions and views more heard and visible in Europe. Let us not forget that the essence of democracy is elections, so let us support each other."
Vox vice president Jorge Buxadé said:
"National constitutions are the product of many years of historical evolution. Europe has 2,500 years of history. The European Union is just 70 years old. The EU must be at the service of the Europe of nation states."
The leader of France's National Rally party, Marine Le Pen, tweeted: "The slightest national decision that does not correspond to the wishes of the European institutions is now the subject of blackmail: that is not what the Europe of freedoms is!" She added: "We love Europe because we love our nations. And we will defend Europe because we defend our nations!"
French MEP Nicolas Bay for France's National Rally party tweeted:
"Italians, Belgians, Hungarians, Poles, French; members of different groups in the European Parliament; in Madrid we have made progress in friendship, because what brings us together is stronger than what separates us: the fight for our civilization!"
Italian MEP Paolo Borchia of the Lega party said:
"The goal is to build a European center-right alternative to a European Popular Party (EPP) that is excessively biased to the left. It will inevitably be a long process, but the party leaders will focus on what unites us, rather than the differences. From this point of view, I reiterated Lega's willingness to proceed in the direction of a clear and concrete path, respectful of the sensibilities of each individual party."
The chairwoman of the Freedom Party of Austria, Marlene Svazek, in an interview with Austrian public broadcaster ORF, said that the main purpose of the Madrid Summit was to strengthen mutual trust:
"We have decided to set up a coordination office in Brussels at parliamentary level, which will in future more closely dovetail the votes and the structural and organizational aspects of the two parliamentary groups.
"With regard to major European issues such as more effective external border protection, greater economic independence for Europe and a common, more restrictive migration policy that is completely diametrically opposed to the current one. We all agreed."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
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On tolerance beyond rumours: The Abrahamic Religion
Haitham El-Zobaidi/The Arab News/February 05/2022
In 1996, the BBC prepared a programme on a controversial archaeological discovery. At a building site in Jerusalem, workers found three stone caskets in a stone tomb. They summoned experts from the Israel Antiquities Authority. What distinguished this archaeological find are the names engraved on the coffins: Joseph, Mary and Jesus. The Israelis kept the discovery under wraps for years, then a BBC producer picked up on the issue while making a programme about Jesus. The gist of his programme was that this was the coffin of Jesus, who died and was buried in a tomb in which his father and mother were also buried. The story defied the main tenets of the Christian faith: torment, salvation, crucifixion, death and then resurrection.
A newspaper reporter took the matter to the Archbishop of Canterbury, George Carey. The reporter asked him: “This discovery contradicts all religious beliefs.” Carrey’s reply was robust and self-confident: “If you mean the human Jesus Christ, then I have no comment on the matter, because Christ today is an idea that has nothing to do with a body and a coffin. And if you mean the church that was founded on those ideas, then it is now a well-established institution well beyond the early days.”
It was a quiet English response to a problematic issue. More importantly, it reflected the calm of the faith. The Western Churches have learned their lessons from the mistakes of the past, those of exaggerations, indulgences, the Crusades and the Inquisition. Faith comes first, now.
In November 2021, the Sheikh of Al-Azhar Ahmed al-Tayeb delivered a speech at the “Egyptian Family House” celebration. For some reason, Tayeb voiced the belief there was a global conspiracy to establish something called the Abrahamic Religion. Sheikh Tayeb is one of the founders of the Abrahamic House, a cultural project that aims to enshrine tolerance between religions in a world suffering from religious and sectarian wars. From the first day when the project was established in Abu Dhabi, the architectural plan of the Abrahamic House was clear: three separate buildings symbolising the three Abrahamic religions. For some reason, the Sheikh of Al-Azhar confused the idea of the project with the peace agreements known as the “Abraham Accords” that brought together Gulf states with Israel in a peace process in which both Egypt preceded them decades beforein the Camp David agreement, and in Jordan’s Wadi Araba agreement. It was all based on a rumour, whose source in the media one cannot trace as hard as one tries, before Tayeb mentioned it.
No one knows who invented the idea of what is called the “Abrahamic religion”. But the Sheikh of Al-Azhar’s comment describing it as “a pipe dream,” made it seem as if it were real. Tayeb’s concern soon reached Pope Tawadros II, the Pope of the Copts of Egypt. He described the rumour of the “Abrahamic religion” as a completely unacceptable idea. These were two tense responses from the two top religious authorities in Egypt to an untraceable rumour. It was a rumour that defied any logic and could not be compared, for example, to the archaeological finds in the tomb. In a country like Egypt, where on more than one occasion Islamic extremists killed Copts in attacks on churches and residential neighbourhoods in villages, the best response, even if this rumour had any truth, would have been to ignore it. Anchoring tolerance requires calm responses that reflect faith, the building block of all religions.
Whoever started this malicious rumour or sedition project, did not ask himself some basic questions. Can a sane person think of creating a religion that combines Islam, Christianity and Judaism? I have no knowledge of the schisms of the Jewish religion, but a quick look at the internal schisms of Islam and Christianity is sufficient to damn the logic of the creation of a universal religion.
In Islam, the schism began very early on, in the first century at the start of the mission to spread the faith. The schism still exists, having given birth to doctrines and sects. Within every doctrine and sect, there was even more splintering. No one dares talk of the convergence of Islamic sects in an Arab world that is driven by religious populism and is gripped by wars where no one even goes to the trouble of hiding behind non-sectarian labels. Unifying the doctrines of the Islamic religion would be more warranted than talking about a new religion.
In Christianity, the schism began early as well, and in stages that spanned ten centuries, from the Marcionismschism in 144, to the “Great Schism” of the Church between Eastern Orthodox and Western Catholics in 1054. Then came the other great schism from within the Western Catholic Church in the sixteenth century when Protestantism was established, then spin-off churches emerged in which were tangled religious, the political, and the geographic dimensions. Is it possible today to talk about the unification of the various Christian churches, much less talk about a new religion?
Major religious institutions need a dose of calm and serenity in dealing with interfaith issues. They need to act as cultural as much as they are religious institutions. The disasters afflicting the Middle East are enough by themselves. They do not need the additional curse of illogical thought or provoked sedition. The words of tolerance that we hear on the lips of the men of religion need to be real and based on a solid foundation of faith that is not swayed by every passing rumour. May we learn from the story of the three caskets.

Daesh’s ‘caliph’ is dead, but a new generation is wreaking mayhem
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/February 05, 2022
The killing of Daesh’s “caliph,” Abu Ibrahim Al-Quraishi, is a rare foreign policy achievement for US President Joe Biden. However, Quraishi was an unknowable ghost, even to thousands of Daesh recruits who declared personal loyalty to him, so his replacement by another obscure phantom may make little practical difference to the far-flung franchises of this globe-straddling movement. Quraishi appears to have long planned to blast himself, his wife and their children to bloody fragments when he was inevitably discovered, offering us a grizzly reminder of the abominable excesses of this sick cult.
When Donald Trump announced the killing of Quraishi’s predecessor Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and claimed that Daesh had been “totally defeated,” terrorism experts ridiculed the self-evident shortsightedness of such an assertion. And so here we are today, with the conditions being replicated for Daesh to stage a spectacularly brutal comeback in numerous vulnerable states. The scope and ambition of Daesh’s attack last month on Ghwayran prison in northeast Syria should have come as no surprise. Terrorist propaganda has long focused on “breaking the walls” of these vast, lightly defended jails, particularly as Daesh’s leadership was facing criticism and ridicule for abandoning its fighters and their family members in detention. Given how many fighters were killed and how few escaped, the prison attack clearly wasn’t the success Daesh had hoped for — but even attempting such a bold operation was a propaganda coup. Jihadist chatrooms were full of praise for fighters besieged inside the prison, who fought to the end, perpetrating horrific atrocities in the process.
While Quraishi’s death will certainly have a crushing short-term impact on terrorist morale, jihadist voices are asserting that he was not in fact their leader, or that it was a privilege to die in the path of jihad, while stressing that Daesh’s war would continue regardless. Others ridiculed Quraishi for hiding out in the Idlib stronghold of the “infidel” Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which was previously aligned with Al-Qaeda. Some even accused HTS of collaborating with the US in targeting Quraishi, noting that Al-Baghdadi was killed in almost exactly the same location. That Quraishi was living in an area under Turkish overlordship, next to a Turkish checkpoint, raises difficult questions as to whether Ankara was incompetent — or complicit.
Some elements within Daesh have always been resistant to Quraishi’s leadership, fueled by claims that he was an Iraqi Turkmen who faked his family’s lineage to the Prophet — and, more , that he “sang like a canary” while in US detention, leading directly to the liquidation of numerous jihadists.
The next wave of a new generation of region-wide terrorism and paramilitarism will probably engulf us equally rapidly, amid a forest of disintegrating states and chronic diplomatic negligence.
There is an upsurge in attacks in central provinces of Iraq, including Daesh breaking into a barracks near Baqubah and shooting 11 soldiers dead while they slept. Experts fear that Daesh’s capabilities are greater than previously thought, and that the group has been lying low, rebuilding its forces. Many of these attacks calculatedly target Iraqi Shiites, aiming to provoke an exaggerated and indiscriminate response by paramilitaries against Sunnis. Daesh knows that its surest route back to power is by triggering sectarian war, and Shiite paramilitaries have their own motivations for obligingly stirring up such tensions.
The youth of fighters involved in recent Daesh operations indicates that a new generation has been recruited in readiness for expansion. Jihadist websites were recently abuzz over a Daesh video depicting the indoctrination and military training of “cubs of the caliphate” in West Africa. The killing of several Lebanese youths fighting for Daesh in Iraq indicates that sophisticated recruitment efforts are underway. Several of these youths came from shockingly impoverished areas of Tripoli. We can never even begin to control the plague of terrorism without definitively addressing grinding poverty and shocking disparities in wealth, while millions languish in hellhole refugee camps with zero life-prospects other than the opportunity to pick up a gun and impose suffering upon others. We must not forget the terrible atrocities wreaked by terrorism upon the region’s complex patchwork of sects and ethnicities — Yazidis, Christians, Shiites, Jews, Sunnis and Kurds — shattering the region’s social fabric.
Effective counterterrorism strategies require decades of patient effort to render communities more resilient and address radical narratives, but diplomats ruefully acknowledge that current efforts are defined by extreme short-termism and failures of professionalism. Trump’s State Department was gutted of staff, and outflanked by sudden policy flip-flops, to the point of complete paralysis. Biden’s Afghanistan debacle was a gift for Daesh and Al-Qaeda and caused further plunges in diplomatic morale.
In a few short days in June 2014, Daesh engulfed half of Iraq. The next wave of a new generation of region-wide terrorism and paramilitarism will probably engulf us equally rapidly, amid a forest of disintegrating states and chronic diplomatic negligence. Terrorism experts mostly concur with this gloomy assessment, yet the institutions and state forces mandated to combat terrorism have never been weaker or more distracted. Meanwhile, Iran’s proxies in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere will continue fanning the flames of the Daesh menace in service of their own destructive agendas.
With Quraishi’s death, the opportunity presents itself for a consolidated crackdown upon terrorism and the causes of terrorism. Yet with all indications signaling that this opportunity is already being missed, the risk is that his death simply marks the passing-on of the terrorist baton to a new and ever-more radical and brutal generation.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has interviewed numerous heads of state.