English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For February 05/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.february05.22.htm
News
Bulletin Achieves Since 2006
Click Here to enter the LCCC Arabic/English news bulletins Achieves since 2006
Bible Quotations For today
Let anyone who is thirsty come to me, and
let the one who believes in me drink. As the scripture has said, “Out of the
believer’s heart shall flow rivers of living water
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John
07/37-39:”On the last day of the festival, the great day, while Jesus was
standing there, he cried out, ‘Let anyone who is thirsty come to me, and let the
one who believes in me drink. As the scripture has said, “Out of the believer’s
heart shall flow rivers of living water.” ’Now he said this about the Spirit,
which believers in him were to receive; for as yet there was no Spirit, because
Jesus was not yet glorified.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on February 04-05/2022
UN Security Council issues veiled criticism of Lebanon’s Hezbollah/Joseph
Haboush, Al Arabiya English/05 February ,2022
IMF Will Only Support a 'Comprehensive Program' for Lebanon, Says Georgieva
Shea Urges 'Justice and Accountability' on Lokman Slim's Murder Anniversary
U.N. Representatives in Lebanon Call for Justice for Lokman Slim
Corona - Health Ministry: 8427 new Corona cases, 18 deaths
President discusses budget, electricity with Mikati
President Aoun on International Day of Human Fraternity: Human fraternity at
heart of Lebanon's establishment as homeland for coexistence
Sunni Leaders Yet to Agree on Post-Hariri Roadmap
Salameh: My Conscience is Clear, Campaign against Me is Political
As Economy Collapses, Some Young Lebanese Turn to Militancy
Berri commemorates February 6 Intifada: Defeat of a project and victory of a
homeland with Arab identity
UNDP, EU partner on waste management support in Lebanon
Japan Extends Emergency Grant Aid in response to humanitarian crisis in Lebanon
Lebanese Forces Chief announcers candidacy of Geagea, Isaac
Hezbollah Leaders Are Dreading the Election—But They Have a Plan/Hanin Ghaddar/The
Washington Institute/February 04/ 2022
“Makram, are you awake? Lokman disappeared!”/Makram Rabah/Now Lebanon/February
04/ 2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on February 04-05/2022
Iran's use of regional proxies against UAE lays bare intent on escalation
US grants sanctions relief to Iran as nuke talks in balance
Iran: At Least 46 Executed in January 2022
Iran regime’s ‘Death to America’ wrestling head cancels match with US team after
visa denial
Danish Court Convicts Iranian Separatist Group of Spying for KSA
Inside US Raid on ISIS Leader: Months of Preparation, Then a Deadly Blast
Watchdog Says 100s of Boys Missing from Kurdish Syria Prison
Biden Joins Sheikh Al-Azhar, Pope Francis in Calling for ‘Human Fraternity'
US Says Window for Talks with Iran is ‘Very, Very Short’
Macron to Visit Russia, Ukraine in Mediation Trip
US Claims Evidence of Moscow Plan for 'False Flag' Ukrainian Attack
US Warns Chinese Firms against Helping Russia against Potential Ukraine
Sanctions
Erdogan Says Turkey, Israel Can Jointly Bring Gas to Europe
Russia and China Tell NATO to Stop Expansion, Moscow Backs Beijing on Taiwan
Russia, China Hit Out at U.S. Influence in Europe and Asia
UN Demands Taliban Provide Info on Two More Missing Women Activists
Sudan's Burhan Says Army Will Only Hand Over Power to Elected Gov’t
Washington: Houthi Attacks Main Obstacle to Peace Efforts
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on February 04-05/2022
Why Does Biden Play Favorites Among the Arab Gulf States?/Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Townhall
/February 04/2022
The New Worst Deal in History/Richard Goldberg/The Dispach/February 04/2022
Foreign Disinformation: What the US Government Can Start Doing Now/Robert Morgus
and Mark Montgomery/Just Security/February 04/2022
The US is negotiating a shorter, weaker Iran Deal - analysis/Lahav Harkov/The
Jerusalem Post/February 04/2022
Islamic Fatwa Condemns Muslim Engagements for Being ‘Too Western’/Raymond
Ibrahim/February 04/2022
Could an Iran Deal Sway the Next Election?/Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/February
04/2022
US Double Standard on Terrorism/Camelia Entekhabifard/Editor-in-chief of the
Independent Persian./February, 04/2022
Mischief on Life Support Machine/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 04/2022
Question: "Can a Christian lose salvation?"/GotQuestions.org?/February 04/2022
Limited options if Russian gas supplies interrupted/John Kemp/The Arab
Weekly/February 04/ 2022
Second Islamic State Leader Killed in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Territory/Aaron Y.
Zelin/The Washington Institute/February 04/ 2022
on February 04-05/2022
مجلس الأمن بخجل ودون تسمية الإرهابي والمحتل حزب الله يدعو
لبنان إلى النأي بالنفس
UN Security Council issues veiled criticism of Lebanon’s
Hezbollah
Joseph Haboush, Al Arabiya English/05 February
,2022
UN Security Council issues veiled criticism of Lebanon’s Hezbollah
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106079/%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%86-%d8%a8%d8%ae%d8%ac%d9%84-%d9%88%d8%af%d9%88%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%b3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a5%d8%b1%d9%87%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%8a-%d9%88%d8%a7/
Members of the Security Council called upon “all Lebanese parties to implement a
tangible policy of disassociation from any external conflicts.”
The UN Security Council issued a veiled criticism of Hezbollah on Friday without
naming the Iran-backed group, calling on all “Lebanese parties” to disassociate
themselves from external conflicts.“The members of the Security Council called
upon all Lebanese parties to implement a tangible policy of disassociation from
any external conflicts, as an important priority, as spelled out in previous
declarations, in particular the 2012 Baabda Declaration,” a statement from the
Security Council said. The Baabda Declaration was adopted by the Lebanese
government under former President Michel Sleiman and called for abstaining from
intervening in any conflicts outside of Lebanon’s borders.Hezbollah has publicly
admitted and boasted about its participation in the Syrian war, propping up the
Assad regime for years since the fighting broke out. The group, which dubs
itself as a resistance to Israel and to so-called American projects in the
region, is also believed to be aiding Yemen’s Houthis and Iran-backed militias
in Iraq.
The Security Council also condemned the repeated attacks against UN peacekeepers
in the Hezbollah strongholds of south Lebanon. Members of the Security Council
said justice was needed against the “perpetrators of those incidents in
accordance with the Lebanese law and consistent with Security Council resolution
2589 (2021).”Separately, the members of the Council called for “a swift,
independent, impartial, thorough, and transparent investigation” into the Beirut
blast in August 2020. Hezbollah and its Shia allies, Amal Movement, have been
blocking all efforts by the lead judge tasked with investigating the explosion.
Meanwhile, Lebanon continues to suffer from one of the worst economic and
financial collapses in history, according to World Bank officials. Hezbollah and
Amal blocked cabinet meetings for nearly three months over their opposition to
the Beirut Port blast investigations.
“As the Lebanese population is facing dire needs and has expressed legitimate
aspirations for reforms, elections and justice, the members of the Security
Council urged expeditious and effective decisions by the Government to initiate
measures, including the swift adoption of an appropriate budget for 2022 that
would enable the quick conclusion of an agreement with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF),” the Security Council said. “Moreover, they reiterated with
urgency the need to implement previously outlined, tangible reforms which are
necessary to help the Lebanese population.”Billions of dollars of aid have been
pledged to Lebanon for years but are contingent upon reforms to combat
corruption and mismanagement. Lebanese officials have not implemented promised
reforms. Parliamentary elections are slated for May, with presidential elections
to take place after.
“The members of the Security Council underlined the importance of holding free,
fair, transparent and inclusive elections as scheduled on May 15, 2022, ensuring
the full, equal and meaningful participation of women as candidates and voters
in the election.”They also called on the government to enable the Supervisory
Commission for Elections to carry out its mandate, “notably by providing it with
adequate resources and initiating the process of nominating candidates.”
IMF Will Only Support a 'Comprehensive Program' for
Lebanon, Says Georgieva
Agence France Presse/Friday, 4 February, 2022
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday the fund would only
support a "comprehensive program" for Lebanon that would tackle all the
country's ills, including corruption. "Our team is working very closely with
their Lebanese counterparts," Georgieva told reporters. "We are stressing that
it has to be a comprehensive program." Lebanese officials began talks with the
IMF last month to pull the Middle Eastern country out of the worst economic
crisis in its history, reported AFP. Georgieva called Lebanon's circumstances
"very, very dire," and said "it has been so for a long time, and short of a
strong government commitment to change the course of the country, the suffering
of the Lebanese people would continue." She said the Washington-based crisis
lender was negotiating over a budget proposal that would address Lebanon's
banking sector and "reforms that the country needs including more transparency
for what the government does." Lebanon defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020,
a first in its history. Its currency has lost about 90 percent of its value on
the black market and four out of five Lebanese now live below the poverty line,
according to the United Nations, a situation made worse by triple-digit
inflation. Despite the economic collapse, the country's ruling class has blocked
reforms that foreign donors say must happen before aid is dispensed.
Shea Urges 'Justice and Accountability' on Lokman Slim's
Murder Anniversary
Naharnet/Friday, 4 February, 2022
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea has delivered a speech marking the
one-year anniversary of the assassination of prominent Lebanese activist and
researcher Lokman Slim. Below is the full text of the ambassador's speech as
delivered during a ceremony commemorating the slain activist: "Let me begin by
renewing my sincere condolences to the family of Lokman Slim as well as to all
of those gathered here and beyond, who loved him, who worked with him. All of us
here were affected by his work. Lokman stood for the rule of law. He was a
champion of free speech, democracy, and civic participation. He was never
intimidated by the repeated threats made against him. In his life, he fought
for justice and accountability. In his death, he deserves those things. It is
an extremely sad occasion for us all to mark the one-year anniversary of his
assassination and it is even more troubling to see that there has yet to be
justice. There has yet to be accountability. His assassination was not just an
attack on one person, but also an attack on Lebanon itself. The use of threats
and intimidation to subvert the rule of law and silence political discourse and
dissent remains unacceptable. In the wake of Lokman’s assassination, malign
actors in Lebanon have tried to weaken, discredit, and delegitimize Lebanese
civil society organizations, and institutions and NGOs. But their intimidation
cannot keep the bold from speaking truth to power. To those of you who carry on
the legacy of Lokman Slim, your freedom of expression, and your participation in
democratic society, those represent the most powerful answer to those who resort
to cowardly political violence.
Now, more than ever, as we approach elections and as the Lebanese people endure
compounding crises, we must all work to uphold the very principles of justice
and accountability for which Lokman was working. Today, I join the many friends
of Lebanon in renewing our calls for justice, to honor Lokman’s life and his
work. Today we share in the tears and the resolve that I heard expressed here.
Thank you."
U.N. Representatives in Lebanon Call for Justice for
Lokman Slim
Naharnet/February 04/ 2022
U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka and U.N. Resident and
Humanitarian Coordinator Najat Rochdi have posted tweets commemorating slain
Lebanese activist and researcher Lokman Slim, on the first anniversary of his
assassination. Wronecka, who attended a tribute to Slim at his Haret Hreik
residence, said “his voice is missed – but the call for freedom, truth and
reform cannot be silenced.”“As United Nations, we will continue to push for
justice and accountability,” she added. Rochdi for her part said that Slim was
killed but his voice “has never been silenced!”
“I salute his wife Monika, family & friends for continuing the fight in search
of truth & justice. Perpetrators must be brought to justice & impunity must end
in Lebanon,” she added.
Corona - Health Ministry: 8427 new Corona cases, 18
deaths
NNA/February 04/ 2022
In its daily report on the COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health
announced on Friday the registration of 8427 new infections with the Coronavirus,
which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 957155. The
report added that 18 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.
President discusses budget, electricity with Mikati
NNA/February 04/ 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Prime Minister, Najib Mikati,
today at Baabda Palace, and discussed with him general conditions and the
atmosphere of the Cabinet’s discussions of the draft budget law for the year
2022, in addition to the electricity file and the necessity of taking steps that
determine its course definitively and clearly.
After the meeting, PM Mikati made the following statement: “I met His Excellency
the President and briefed him on the atmosphere that prevailed in recent days,
in terms of discussing the draft budget within the Council of Ministers and
finalizing it in the next session, God willing, in preparation for submitting it
to the Parliament in its final form. We agreed to hold a Cabinet session next
Thursday in Baabda Palace at 2:00 pm, provided that the Cabinet will finish
studying the budget on the same day, even if the session took hours.
I conveyed to President Aoun, greetings from the Turkish President and his
keenness on the best relations with Lebanon, and in view of the accumulated
issues that must be studied in the Council of Ministers, I informed the
President of my invitation to the Council to convene next Tuesday in the Grand
Serail to take the appropriate decisions.
Questions & Answers:
Question: Will there be an electricity advance?
Answer: "His Excellency the President has put this issue into consideration as
well, and in principle, the electricity advance will be outside the budget sent
to the Parliament. We must adopt either the presence of electricity permanently
or not, so it is a partial solution and giving an advance every time, similar to
what happened during the past thirty years is something that the ministers
oppose, as we need a complete and clear plan for electricity through which we
know when it will be available 24 hours a day, and what our situation is at the
moment. The Council of Ministers will send the electricity issue through a
separate bill to the Parliament”.—Presidency Press Office
President Aoun on International Day of Human Fraternity:
Human fraternity at heart of Lebanon's establishment as homeland for coexistence
NNA/February 04/ 2022
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, affirmed that “Human brotherhood
is a value that was at the core of the establishment of Lebanon as a homeland
for coexistence, and it must be preserved because it has become a global value
today, on the basis of which many societies rise from their setbacks, without
canceling or excluding any of its components”. President Aoun’s positions came
on the occasion of the United Nations’ commemoration of the “Second
International Day of Human Fraternity,” which is today, on the occasion of the
signing of the “Document on Human Fraternity for Global Peace and Coexistence”
between Pope Francis and the Sheikh of Al-Azhar, Imam Ahmed Al-Tayeb, three
years ago, in Abu Dhabi. The President said: "Lebanon, which contributed to the
establishment of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and included
commitment to it in the introduction of its constitution, has always believed
that what unites people, regardless of their religious, ethnic and cultural
affiliations, is mutual respect that opens the door wide to the establishment of
a culture of peace, which is in turn, strengthened through tolerance, solidarity
and mutual understanding”.
President Aoun also considered that “Lebanon, despite all the difficulties,
still constitutes a model of human brotherhood, and what it laid is an anchor of
salvation that we must all adhere to in order to restore our homeland,
especially in the face of the logic of conflict, to assure our children and the
world that we are able together to complete our path shared by mutual respect
for our idiosyncrasies that enrich our unity with its diversity”.
Baalbeck -Hermel Governor:
The President received Baalbek-Hermel Governor, Bashir Khoder, today at Baabda
Palace. The needs of the region and the social, security and health conditions
it is going through were tackled in addition to electricity.
Tourism Minister:
President Aoun met Minister of Tourism, Engineer Walid Nassar, with his family
members to thank him for his sympathy in the death of Minister Nassar's father,
late Raphael Naoum Nassar. -- Presidency Press Office
Sunni Leaders Yet to Agree on Post-Hariri Roadmap
Naharnet/February 04/ 2022
A meeting held at the request of Prime Minister Najib Miqati and attended by
Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdul Latif Daryan and ex-PMs Fouad Saniora and Tammam Salam
has failed to devise a “roadmap for filling the vacuum” created by ex-PM Saad
Hariri’s withdrawal from politics, a media report said on Friday. The conferees
have not agreed on a plan, “especially that there is clear confusion as to how
al-Mustaqbal Movement itself will approach the issue of the nominations of those
who are loyal to it without being members of the Movement,” ad-Diyar newspaper
said. There is also uncertainty regarding the issue of voting, seeing as
Mustaqbal has not asked its supporters to boycott the parliamentary elections
nor to cast their votes, the daily added, noting that there is nothing clear as
to “how these votes will be granted.”The Sunni leaders and Mustaqbal, however,
have “three red lines”: “no to backing Hizbullah’s candidates, no to backing the
Free Patriotic Movement’s candidates and no to backing any of the Lebanese
Forces’ candidates,” the newspaper said.
Salameh: My Conscience is Clear, Campaign against Me
is Political
Naharnet/February 04/ 2022
Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh has said that his conscience is clear despite
the flurry of accusations against him. In an interview with Asharq al-Awsat
newspaper published Friday, Salameh said the circulars he has been issuing are
aimed at "easing the severity of the crisis and averting the major collapse."
Salameh explained that he is seeking to rein in the currency exchange black
market, noting that the central bank’s measures have helped restore 35% of the
value of the Lebanese lira. He charged that the criticism leveled against him is
“politically motivated” and “rooted in interests in the black market.”"Some
sides were particularly bothered that the recent measure has eliminated the
black market and allowed Sayrafa to be the main platform whereby everyone would
have to abide by the rate it sets," Salameh said. Asked whether the measure will
help maintain the Lebanese pound at 20,000 to the dollar, he replied: "The
market will do the talking. We will not intervene to introduce a fixed exchange
rate. We will let developments take their course in the market." "We will be
around to prevent the recurrence of severe fluctuations," he added. "The Sayrafa
platform now has the monetary ability to intervene in dollars" to thwart any
major drop in the pound’s value, he said. Salameh also revealed that should an
IMF program be reached and should Lebanon commit to it, then other countries may
join the bailout "and we may secure 12-15 billion dollars, which is enough for
Lebanon to recover."
Asked how long Lebanon will need to overcome its crisis, Salameh said: "The
sooner reforms are implemented, the sooner the crisis will end." "Trust is the
key factor that will restore funds and lead to the economic recovery," he
stressed to Asharq al-Awsat. He also denied claims that the easing of the
currency fluctuation is tied to the parliamentary elections. "The government's
main concern at the moment is combating inflation that is impoverishing the
people," he stated. "It is not thinking about the elections and political gains.
It is focusing on approving a state budget that would attract confidence and,
most importantly, lead to negotiations with the IMF." Furthermore, Salameh
rejected accusations that the central bank has spent the savings of depositors.
"We do not own the savings in the first place," he stated. "The major loss in
the banking sector is blamed on the halt in payments. The banks had a huge
eurobond wallet that they lost. These were depositor funds that they directly
employed in service of the state." Asked if the state could resort to gold
reserves to end the crisis, Salameh stressed that a law is in place that bars
such a move. "We are committed to this law," he said. "Even if a serious reform
program is not approved, the gold reserves must not be touched at any cost."
Salameh declared: "No one envies my position, but I am here and my conscience is
clear." He said “political interests” have led to the campaign that has firmly
held him responsible for the crisis. He also noted that all other factors have
been taken out of the equation and only the central bank has been blamed. "This
does not make sense," he said. "They want to turn me into a scapegoat."
As Economy Collapses, Some Young Lebanese Turn to
Militancy
Associated Press/February 04/ 2022
Two weeks before he was supposed to get married, Bakr Seif told his mother he
was going out to see his fiancee and would be back for lunch. When he did not
show up by nighttime, his mother called the fiancee, who said he had not been to
visit her.
That day, Dec. 8, was the last time Seif's mother saw him. Last week, he was
among nine people killed in an Iraqi army airstrike targeting suspected
militants in eastern Iraq. At least four of them were Lebanese, all from this
small, impoverished village near the northern city of Tripoli.
As Lebanon slid deeper into economic misery over recent months, dozens of young
men have disappeared from the country's marginalized north and later surfaced in
Iraq, where they are believed to have joined the Islamic State group. The
migration has stoked fears of a new wave of radical recruitment, taking
advantage of frustration and despair fueled by the economic meltdown and
sectarian tensions. Many Lebanese have plummeted into poverty as the local
currency has collapsed, the value of salaries and bank accounts has evaporated,
and prices have soared. Even before the crisis, Tripoli was Lebanon's poorest
city -- and things have only gotten worse with scores of young, seemingly
unemployed men in the streets.
But it's not just poverty driving some young men to join IS. Tripoli and its
surrounding areas are also a center for many of Lebanon's Sunni Muslim
community, who resent what they say is neglect from the government in Beirut.
Security forces have targeted Sunni youth in crackdowns over militancy, and
activists have said for years that thousands have been detained without trial
because of suspicions of militant links. Seif's mother believed her son was
being detained by the Lebanese intelligence. But five or six days before he was
killed, he called, the first she'd heard from him since his disappearance. He
wouldn't say where he was, telling her only, "I have been wronged, I have been
wronged," without explanation, she said. Seif had spent seven years in jail on
suspicion of "acts of terrorism" and was released in June without trial. The
family maintains his innocence and opened a grocery for him to work in, since no
one else would employ him after his release.
"He was living in constant fear. He used to tell me, 'I trust no one but my
family,'" his mother said.
IS' top leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, was killed in a U.S. raid on
his safehouse in northwest Syria on Thursday. Experts believe that while his
elimination may cause some short-term disruption, the group can replace him and
continue its campaign of violence in Iraq and Syria.
The numbers of Lebanese apparently joining IS is nowhere near the hundreds who
went to neighboring Syria to join rebels there, including ones linked to
al-Qaida, at the height of that country's civil war. Since that war waned
several years ago, the flow of Lebanese to join dried up.
The migration to join IS in Iraq appears to be new. Lawyer Mohammed Sablouh, who
heads the Center for Prisoners Rights, said it is believed that between 70 to
100 young men disappeared from the Tripoli area in past months, though the exact
number is not known.
They were from the poorest districts in and around Tripoli, and some may have
been lured by the promise of jobs, not realizing they were joining IS, he said.
Others were afraid of being swept up in crackdowns.
"These men are being manipulated by dark forces led by those who benefit from
the revival of Daesh and want to harm the image of Tripoli," Sablouh said, using
the Arabic acronym for IS.
Besides the deaths in Sunday's strike, at least two other Lebanese have been
killed in Iraq since December. Tripoli has been the scene of militant violence
in the past -- the most serious in 2014, when militants inspired by the Islamic
State group carried out attacks against the Lebanese Army.
Disappearances of young men began to rise in late August, not long after a
former military intelligence member, Ahmad Murad, was shot and killed in
Tripoli. In the subsequent search, the military said it arrested an IS cell that
included six militants involved in Murad's killing. It appears the capture of
the cell led other IS cells in the north to go on the run. Remnants of IS have
been waging a campaign of frequent hit-and-run attacks in Syria and Iraq ever
since the group lost its last shred of territory in Syria in March 2019.
They recently launched two of their boldest operations yet. On Jan. 20, about
200 IS militants attacked a prison in Syria's northeastern city of Hassakeh and
were joined by rioting inmates. It took more than a week for Kurdish-led
U.S.-backed fighters to fully regain control over the prison in fighting that
killed nearly 500, including several hundred militants, according to Kurdish
officials. On Jan. 21, IS gunmen in Iraq broke into a barracks in a mountainous
area in Diyala province, killed a guard and shot dead 11 soldiers as they slept.
On Sunday, Iraq's military carried out airstrikes on an IS cell it said was
behind the barracks attack, killing nine militants, including the Lebanese.
Iraqi officials said four Lebanese were killed. Families and the mayor of Wadi
Nahleh, Fadel Seif, said they were five -- Bakr Seif, his cousin Omar Seif and
three friends, Youssef Shkheidem, Omar Shkheidem and Anas Jazzar. The extended
Seif family is the largest in the village. "There are several factors making the
youth flee, and the main one is lack of jobs," the mayor said.
Omar Seif's mother said he disappeared on the last day of 2021 and called her
days later from a number she didn't recognize. She informed Lebanese
authorities, who told her Omar was in Iraq, using an Azeri telephone number. "I
said, he is dead (to me). I did not raise him in order to send him to Iraq or
... Syria or any other place," she said. On Sunday, she received a call from
another unknown number, telling her her son had been killed. Omar's mother said
he had long been harassed by Lebanese security officials. He spent years in
prison, even while still a juvenile, also on terrorism suspicions, she said.
After his release, he was repeatedly detained for short periods, when police
would beat him up and give him electrical shocks, she said.
"Prison destroyed us. It burned our children, our reputation and dignity. It
burned our money. Even his father died while he was in jail," she said, speaking
in the sitting room of her small, ground floor apartment with peeling walls, as
friends and relatives dropped in to offer condolences.
She said Omar could not live a normal life or work because authorities
officially revoked his civil rights, meaning he could not vote or get a
government job. "When a young man who is between 15 and 30 cannot get married or
buy anything or enter a restaurant to have a meal like all people, of course he
will choose death and will be an easy target."
Berri commemorates February 6 Intifada: Defeat of a
project and victory of a homeland with Arab identity
NNA/February 04/ 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Friday said on the occasion of the 38th
commemoration of the February 6 Intifada and the martyrdom of Hassan Kassir,
that February 6 uprising illustrates a defeat of a project and the victory of a
nation, Lebanon, with an Arab identity and belonging, far from Hebrew
choices.Speaker Berri added, “February 6 (intifada) is not a mere memory or a
day in history, but rather history in itself, the present, clarity of visions
and a vision towards the future.”On the other hand, Speaker Berri received
respectively at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, former Deputy Prime
Minister Zeina Akar, and former MP Jamal al-Jarrah. Speaker Berri also met with
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Judge Bassam Mawlawi, with whom he
discussed the current general situation, especially the security ones, and the
preparations for the upcoming parliamentary elections. This afternoon, Berri
discussed the latest developments and Lebanese-Iraqi relations during his
meeting with Iraqi Ambassador to Lebanon, Haidar Al-Barrak. Berri also met with
Minister of Education and Higher Education, Acting Minister of Information, Dr.
Abbas Al-Halabi, with discussions touching on the course of the school year in
all its aspects, and the problems that hinder this scholastic year. Minister
Halabi said that the Speaker emphasized the need to complete the school year in
public and private schools, despite the difficult circumstances which require
sacrifices from all. Halabi also indicated that discussions also touched on the
Lebanese University’s affairs and its concerns, and that of Tele Liban (TL) and
ideas put forward to raise the level of its performance to play its national and
media role.
UNDP, EU partner on waste management support in Lebanon
NNA/February 04/ 2022
The United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) and the European Union (EU) in
Lebanon are partnering to improve the environmental and financial sustainability
of the waste management sector in Lebanon. The “Towards a Decentralised Waste
Management Integrated Response (TaDWIR) in Lebanon” initiative is funded by the
EU and will be implemented by UNDP, in partnership with the Ministry of
Environment and other relevant national stakeholders including non-governmental
organisations, local communities and the private sector. Waste management is a
critical development challenge in Lebanon, a serious source of environmental
degradation, as well as a potential threat to public health . TaDWIR
specifically targets some of the most dangerous types of waste in the country,
such as medical waste. In addition, green waste, cardboard and paper waste, as
well as potentially other types of residual waste that result from material
recovery facility, will be targeted within the framework of this parnership. The
2020 “State of the Environment in Lebanon” report concluded that Lebanon’s waste
management cannot become resilient nor sustainable unless it is underpinned by a
firm system of governance and cost recovery. In this respect, this new programme
of work will also focus on reducing the amount of waste disposed, improving the
quality of waste and introducing national systems for cost-recovery.
“Environmental protection and the elimination of pollution are at the heart of
the European Green Deal, and key pillars of the EU’s efforts in Lebanon. Through
TaDWIR, the EU will contribute to improving both the governance and the
operational sides of waste management, so to reduce the negative impact of waste
on the health and wellbeing of Lebanon’s population, and to foster the sector’s
long term sustainability, all the while involving and empowering key public and
private stakeholders.” Alessia Squarcella, EU Delegation in Lebanon - Deputy
Head of Cooperation.
“Addressing issues related to environmental management and reform needs to
remain a priority in Lebanon, and an integral part of building the country
forward. Particularly, waste management is a critical pillar of environmental
management, given its impact on the wellbeing and health of the communities
residing in Lebanon, and the country’s natural resources. The new partnership
with the European Union is therefore timely to continue our efforts in
strengthening Lebanon’s environmental governance and in providing concrete
solutions to some of waste streams in the country” added Celine Moyroud, UNDP
Resident Representative. UNDP’s strategy in Lebanon focuses on several aspects
of environmental governance including the effective management of waste and
wastewater, the improvement and protection of water resources, and the provision
of access to clean energy sources at the central and decentralized levels. UNDP
continues to advocate for the integration of environmental and climate
considerations into Lebanon’s response to the crisis, with a focus on supporting
green recovery that benefit people and planet. -- UNDP Lebanon
Japan Extends Emergency Grant Aid in response to
humanitarian crisis in Lebanon
NNA/February 04/ 2022
The Government of Japan has extended 8.45 million US dollars as an emergency
grant assistance to vulnerable people including refugees and children in crisis
at a time when approaching harsh winter in Lebanon amplifies their sufferings.
This humanitarian assistance will include provision of winter clothes, house
repairing kit, food, safe water as well as improvement of health and hygienic
conditions. These will be implemented through the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the World Food Programme (WFP), the United
Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the United Nations Relief and Works Agency
for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA).The expected benefit of this
assistance will be as follows:
-Approx. 18,000 people will get food.
-Approx. 297,800 people, including internally displaced persons and refugees,
will get shelter and protection assistance.
-Approx. 35,000 children and families will get healthcare services, clean water,
blankets and winter clothes as well as repair of drainage networks.
-Approx. 25,000 people will get fuel for heating.
“We are fully aware of the gravity of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Lebanon
where true victims are always vulnerable children and families. As they face the
harsh winter conditions, Japan has decided to strengthen its interventions to
alleviate their sufferings. We hope they receive our message through the
assistance that the international community will be there with you at all times.
Japan remains committed to supporting the most vulnerable segment of the society
under the deteriorating humanitarian situation in cooperation with the
international community as a friend in need,” a statement by the Embassy of
Japan said.
Lebanese Forces Chief announcers candidacy of Geagea,
Isaac
NNA/February 04/ 2022
"Lebanese Forces" party chief, Samir Geagea, on Friday announced the
re-nomination of MPs Strida Geagea and Joseph Isaac for the two Maronite seats
in Bcharri District for the 2022 elections. This announcement came during a
meeting held at the party's headquarters in Maarab, in the presence of MPs
Geagea and Isaac, as well as heads of the party's centers and electoral offices
in the district.
Hezbollah Leaders Are Dreading the Election—But They
Have a Plan
Hanin Ghaddar/The Washington Institute/February 04/ 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106082/106082/
Opposition parties may win enough votes to strip Hezbollah’s parliamentary
majority, but the group is already preparing to employ its usual tactics of
postponement, paralysis, and street violence if necessary.
As the Lebanese political scene gears up for the May 15 general election, one
question has become paramount: will civil society and opposition groups win
enough seats to change the status quo in parliament, or will Hezbollah maintain
control over the body? Although internal challenges and the financial crisis
will likely preclude the opposition from achieving an overall victory, they
might secure as many as ten or more new seats—a tally that could end Hezbollah’s
current majority and prevent the militia and its allies from once again holding
political sway over the country’s security, judicial, and financial decisions.
The new parliament will also select the next president—assuming the election is
held on time. Given the high stakes and the growing challenge to its political
dominance, Hezbollah has devised strategies for every contingency.
Hezbollah’s Challenges
The militia’s main challenge is the public downfall of its main Christian ally,
Gebran Bassil of the Free Patriotic Movement. According to Lebanese polls,
Christian support for the FPM has plummeted below 13 percent, down from 70
percent in 2005. This is due to Bassil’s obstruction of the government formation
process after the August 2020 Beirut port explosion, as well as his various acts
of corruption highlighted by the October 2019 mass protests and the U.S.
Magnitsky Act sanctions levied against him a year later. Many former supporters
will either abstain from voting this May or choose other candidates (e.g.,
Kataeb Party leader Samy Gemayel).
Indeed, while the 2019 protests failed to produce real political change,
sentiments against the political elite are still strong, and opposition groups
are hoping to channel them into gains at the ballot box. In particular, mistrust
and discontent toward Hezbollah have become more collective and widespread given
the group’s habit of paralyzing state institutions and threatening Judge Tarek
Bitar, who is leading the investigation into the port blast. Last October, these
threats escalated to street clashes in the Beirut neighborhood of Tayouneh,
raising serious fears of another civil war.
Even within Hezbollah’s main Shia constituency, voices of discontent are growing
louder and more numerous. Despite the group’s many efforts to silence these
voices, the economy has collapsed to the point where more people are struggling
to meet their basic needs, including in Shia communities. Hezbollah can no
longer provide an alternative source of goods and services to many of these
communities, apart from a very small circle of elite members and military
personnel.
Hezbollah’s other main ally, parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, has become a
problem as well. Alongside Bassil and Central Bank governor Riad Salameh, Berri
was one of the three main figures targeted with accusations of corruption and
calls for accountability during the 2019 protests. To deflate this blame and
anger, Hezbollah has allowed and even encouraged Shia participation in protests
against Berri and Salameh. Yet this tactic may backfire in May, when the group
will either have to convince Shia to vote for Berri or run without him and risk
losing votes from his Amal faction.
Hezbollah and Bassil are also concerned about the unprecedented number of
expatriates who have registered to vote—244,442 as of this writing, compared to
92,180 in 2018. This major increase is a serious threat to Hezbollah because
expatriate voting is more difficult to influence or control. The vast majority
of these expatriates are Christians living in the West, and they are likely more
inclined to vote for independent Christian candidates, the Lebanese Forces
faction, or Kataeb.
Given these complications, Hezbollah cannot guarantee another majority win. Yet
the group cannot afford to lose its unrestricted political power at a time when
national and regional developments are coming to a head—from choosing the next
president to demarcating the country’s maritime border, negotiating with the
IMF, and securing gas and electricity deals. Therefore, Hezbollah leaders have
come up with various options for navigating the next few months.
Scenarios and Strategies
Last year’s parliamentary election in Iraq was a cautionary tale for Hezbollah.
Iran’s militia allies lost that vote in dramatic fashion, and neither Tehran nor
Hezbollah wants to replicate that setback in Lebanon.
One scenario is to postpone the May election, whether until the current
Hezbollah-controlled parliament can select a new president or until economic
hardship and public discontent fade. There is precedent for such a move: in
2013, parliament extended its mandate for two years, citing domestic security
concerns and the war next door in Syria. Another two-year extension was
announced in 2014. Hezbollah may try to use this same excuse to delay the May
vote—security concerns will loom over Lebanon indefinitely, and in this
environment, any spark can ignite internal clashes.
In the meantime, the group is hoping that the Iran nuclear talks in Vienna will
soon lead to an agreement that lifts U.S. sanctions and reopens the flow of
Iranian cash into its coffers. This might not fix Lebanon’s financial crisis,
but it could facilitate Hezbollah’s election logistics and expenditures while
enabling the militia to provide more largesse to its constituents.
The United States, several European governments, and many other international
actors strongly support holding the election on time, and this pressure might
make it difficult to postpone the vote. Yet if Hezbollah believes the
repercussions will be limited, it might engineer street clashes or other
security incidents that either provide an excuse for postponement or create
public fears that diminish voter turnout.
Another option is paralysis, a game that Hezbollah and its allies have mastered
since 2005. Even if they lose the election, they could still obstruct the
government formation process for months or even years.
Of course, given its status as Lebanon’s most powerful armed faction, Hezbollah
may simply resort to threatening or using force if the votes do not go its way.
Strong-arm tactics could compel a new government to compromise on the choice of
president, on key security appointments, and on negotiations related to the IMF,
World Bank, and border demarcation.
Hezbollah has used its weapons for political purposes before. After losing the
2005 election to the March 14 coalition, the group resorted to violence on
multiple occasions to bring down the resultant government. In addition to
assassinating members of the coalition leadership who did not bend to its will,
the group deadlocked the government for months and eventually ordered its troops
to launch street battles in Beirut in May 2008. This escalation forced opponents
to accept the Doha agreement, which stripped March 14 of its majority and
produced a national unity government in its place.
Similarly, in the months after losing the 2009 election, Hezbollah used displays
of force to eventually undo the outcome. In a February 2011 incident known as
“the black shirts threat,” armed fighters in distinctive uniforms marched in the
streets of Beirut and various Druze communities. Soon thereafter, the group
forced the March 14 government to resign and installed Najib Mikati as the head
of a new national unity government.
Unfortunately, there is nothing to stop Hezbollah from using its weapons again
if it loses in May. Such a scenario is even more plausible following last
October’s clashes in Tayouneh. Government probes of that incident have resulted
in zero accountability so far, and Hezbollah officials continue to issue veiled
threats. In December, for example, parliamentarian Mohammad Raad warned
opposition groups that they need to reconsider their plans for changing
Lebanon’s political scene: “Those who want to govern us tomorrow with a new
alleged majority need to understand that no majority in Lebanon has ever been
able to govern as a majority.”
The Election Is Still Significant
Despite the unlikelihood of groundbreaking results, the May election could still
constitute a symbolic win for the protest movement if Hezbollah is stripped of
its parliamentary majority. To be sure, the group will do what is needed to keep
hold of the twenty-seven seats allotted to the Shia community under Lebanon’s
confessional system—it has been using violence and intimidation to keep Shia
opposition candidates from contesting these seats since 2019 and shows no sign
of stopping. Hezbollah will also employ all of its tools to help Bassil’s
Christian faction maintain a considerable presence in parliament, and to exploit
Saad Hariri’s withdrawal from political life by infiltrating the fractured Sunni
street. If the public believes that the opposition is divided or incapable of
providing them with a viable political alternative, voter turnout might be very
low, further bolstering the chances of Hezbollah and its allies.
Even so, holding the election on time and with international observers could
still give a boost to opposition figures and the Lebanese people, who have few
sources of hope these days besides the democratic process. Any attempt to
postpone or tamper with the election should therefore be met with sanctions
against all those responsible. In addition to maintaining current pressures, the
United States and other parties should insist on long-term international
observers to ensure a free and fair process between now and May.
*Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Program on
Arab Politics.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hezbollah-leaders-are-dreading-election-they-have-plan
“Makram, are you awake? Lokman disappeared!”
Makram Rabah/Now Lebanon/February 04/ 2022
Historian Makram Rabah brings homage to intellectual and publicist Lokman Slim a
year after he was murdered in South Lebanon.
With this short text from my dear Monika, I awoke on February 4, 2021, to the
news of the abduction of Lokman Slim, my brave friend and companion on the
journey to preserve the realms of Lebanese memory, and in the battle against
fascism and racism, and in our common struggle to build a democratic and secular
state worthy of all of us.
My shock turned to rage when I saw Lokman swimming in his own blood after the
cowards killed him for fear of his wisdom and his sharp tongue which he adeptly
utilized to champion truth and justice.
From the first moment I met Lokman and Monika in the “Hangar” in Haret Hreik in
February 2006 until the moment Lokman departed physically, years of
conversations, discussions, and intellectual and historical projects mixed with
food and wine, have born. We were all obsessed with preserving the memory of the
many civil wars and documenting the crimes and massacres committed by the ruling
class and their international allies on the land of Lebanon and the people that
inhabit it.
My most recent book Conflict on Mount Lebanon, which was adapted to Arabic and
edited by Lokman, is the result of years of research and oral interviews that I
conducted with personalities who were part of the events of the conflict known
as the Mountain War in 1983, and is the first cooperation that began between me
and the UMAM Association for Documentation and Research.
It developed into a deep friendship that allowed me to become a member of the
Lokman intellectual entourage and enabled me to make extensive use of his
circles in a series of intellectual activities related to the history of Lebanon
and other reformist political projects.
When the “The Hub” tent – of which I was one of the custodians – was attacked in
downtown Beirut, during the October 17 revolution by the supporters of the Iran
axis, I turned to find Lokman and a handful of courageous people standing next
to me.
Lokman Slim was not just a first-class intellectual, writer, translator,
publisher, and activist, but rather also an image of Lebanon and the Levant we
aspire to, a country that does not fear reason, pluralism and freedom, and does
not sanctify idols and war criminals.
In my last meeting with Lokman in his office a week before his assassination, he
asked me with a smile to forget my book and the application that we were
preparing with the United Nations Development Program because those projects
were completed, adding, “We have many other future projects and “conspiracies”
we should focus on”.
Lokman Slim was not just a first-class intellectual, writer, translator,
publisher, and activist, but rather also an image of Lebanon and the Levant we
aspire to, a country that does not fear reason, pluralism and freedom, and does
not sanctify idols and war criminals.
My book was translated into sound Arabic, as Lokman loved a language in which he
and his imaginary friend Saeed al-Jin distinguished themselves, a language that
adorned the many articles and emails he sent me over the years.
Dear Monica, Lokman did not disappear, but only his body is absent. He will
remain in every letter and page we publish through UMAM and many other liberal
and free platforms.
The criminal and his “master”, or Sayed, who assassinated Lokman naively
believed that they could erase the “zero fear” slogan that Lokman launched in
the face of the violent perpetrators who attacked the walls of his house in
Haret Hreik. They also believed that their crime would go unpunished, as is the
case with dozens of political assassinations over the years.
Justice for Lokman will come sooner or later, and Lokman will remain the
palpable voice in defense of the temple of freedom and reason in a forest ruled
by tyrants and criminals.
Justice even if the heavens fall…
My friend Lokman… I miss you.
The article is the introduction to Conflict on Mount Lebanon: the Druze, the
Maronites and Collective memory set to be released by Dar al Jadeed.
Makram Rabah is a lecturer at the American University of Beirut, Department of
History. His book Conflict on Mount Lebanon: The Druze, the Maronites and
Collective Memory (Edinburgh University Press) cover collective identities and
the Lebanese Civil War.
The opinions expressed are those of the author only and do not necessarily
reflect the views of NOW.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
February 04-05/2022
Iran's use of regional proxies
against UAE lays bare intent on escalation
The Arab Weekly//February 04/ 2022
Tehran's read-out of Wednesday’s phone conversation between its Foreign Minister
Hossein Amirabdollahian and his UAE counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, is
only the latest indication of the Islamic Republic's intent on dangerous
escalation in the region, analysts said.
According to the Iranian state news agency IRNA Amirabdollahian stressed during
the conversation that “the Zionist regime’s presence is a threat to the regional
security”, in a reference to the normalisation of ties between Israel and some
Gulf countries including the UAE.
The same day a little-known extremist group claimed a drone attack on the United
Arab Emirates, raising the possibility that Iran has decided to mobilise its
proxy militias from other countries in the region beyond Yemen. Alwiyat al-Waad
al-Haq (True Promise Brigades), which is believed to be simply a cover name used
by pro-Iranian factions operating in Iraq, said it launched four drones at dawn
on Wednesday targeting the Gulf state. The UAE announced the interception and
destruction on Wednesday of three "hostile drones", which follows three previous
drone and missile attacks claimed by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels since
January 17. The Houthis military spokesman Yahya Saree "congratulated" Alwiyat
al-Waad al-Haq on the operation. "We thank them for this honourable, responsible
stance of solidarity with our dear people against the Emirati enemy," Saree
said. In claiming responsibility for the drone attack, Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq
vowed: "to continue to deliver painful strikes until the UAE stops interfering
in the affairs of the countries of the region, primarily Yemen and Iraq".
"The coming strikes will be more severe and painful," their statement
threatened. Experts saw Tehran's fingerprints in the attack. "If Alwiyat al-Waad
al-Haq came out of hibernation and did launch drones at the UAE ... then this
was likely an Iran-directed or at very least Iran-tolerated operation," Michael
Knights at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said in a Twitter post.
Gulf affairs experts said that Iran is actually demonstrating that its
expressions of readiness for dialogue with Gulf countries and regional economic
cooperation are mere diversionary tactics to relieve pressure on Tehran while it
pursues its previous hostile agenda towards its Arab Gulf neighbours. They
believe that Tehran, by directing its proxy militias to target the UAE, is
planning to expand the area of confrontation and open a northern front in the
showdown, after Abu Dhabi succeeded in thwarting the Houthi attacks and blunting
Iran's attempts to unsettle UAE security and damage its image as a regional and
international economic hub. They add that Iran may be preparing for its
worst-case scenario, where the Houthis suffer severe new setbacks at the hands
of forces allied to the UAE, after previous defeats in Shabwa and Marib.
However, in doing so, Tehran runs the risk of facing added pressure as it uses
Iraq as a front to serve its regional designs. The announcement of the attacks
by the "True Promise Brigades" provoked the wrath of the leader of the Sadrist
movement, Moqtada al-Sadr, the soon-to-be de facto ruler of Iraq. He denounced
the attacks not only as they targeted a neighbouring Arab state but also because
they undermined his own image as a leader who can control the security situation
in his country.
According to experts, Sadr's strong reaction was directed obliquely at top
leaders in the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) who have lost the elections and
now want to influence the political situation at home through domestic and
regional violence.
In a statement on Thursday Sadr was keen to lift the political cover from the
attackers, as well as to reassure the Gulf states that Iraq will not be part of
any agenda that threatens their security. Sadr said that "some outlaw terrorists
have rushed to drag Iraq into a dangerous regional war by targeting a Gulf
country, under the pretext of normalisation or that of the Yemen war." He
stressed that "Iraq needs peace, state authority and non-subordination to
foreign orders in being a launch pad for attacks on neighbouring states and
regional countries. The Iraqi government must deal with the perpetrators
seriously and firmly."The UAE defence ministry said it was "ready to deal with
any threats" and was taking "all necessary measures" to protect the country
which prizes its reputation as a safe business haven. On Tuesday, the United
States said it was deploying fighter jets to assist the UAE after the attacks on
Abu Dhabi
Observers believe that the repeated attacks on Gulf countries and targeting the
interests of the United States and its allies in the region will push the United
States and Israel to take off their gloves in dealing with Iran's new attempts
at undermining the region's peace and security.
US grants sanctions relief to Iran as nuke talks in
balance
The Associated Press/05 February ,2022
The Biden administration on Friday restored some sanctions relief to Iran’s
atomic program as talks aimed at salvaging the languishing 2015 nuclear deal
enter a critical phase.
As US negotiators head back to Vienna for what could be a make-or-break session,
Secretary of State Antony Blinken signed several sanctions waivers related to
Iran’s civilian nuclear activities. The move reverses the Trump administration’s
decision to rescind them.
The waivers are intended to entice Iran to return to compliance with the 2015
deal that it has been violating since former President Donald Trump withdrew
from the agreement in 2018 and re-imposed US sanctions. Iran says it is not
respecting the terms of the deal because the US pulled out of it first.
Iran has demanded the restoration of all sanctions relief it was promised under
the deal to return to compliance.
Friday’s move lifts the sanctions threat against foreign countries and companies
from Russia, China and Europe that had been cooperating with non-military parts
of Iran’s nuclear program under the terms of the 2015 deal, known as the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA.
The Trump administration had ended the so-called “civ-nuke” waivers in May 2020
as part of its “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran that began when Trump
withdrew the US from the deal in 2018, complaining that it was the worst
diplomatic agreement ever negotiated and gave Iran a pathway to developing the
bomb. As a presidential candidate, Joe Biden made a US return to the nuclear
deal a priority, and his administration has pursued that goal but there has been
little progress toward that end since he took office a year ago. Administration
officials said the waivers were being restored to help push the Vienna
negotiations forward. “The waiver with respect to these activities is designed
to facilitate discussions that would help to close a deal on a mutual return to
full implementation of the JCPOA and lay the groundwork for Iran’s return to
performance of its JCPOA commitments,” the State Department said in a notice to
Congress that announced the move. “It is also designed to serve US
nonproliferation and nuclear safety interests and constrain Iran’s nuclear
activities,” the department said. “It is being issued as a matter of policy
discretion with these objectives in mind, and not pursuant to a commitment or as
part of a quid pro quo. We are focused on working with partners and allies to
counter the full range of threats that Iran poses.”A copy of the State
Department notice and the actual waivers signed by Blinken were obtained by The
Associated Press. The waivers permit foreign countries and companies to work on
civilian projects at Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power station, its Arak heavy water
plant and the Tehran Research Reactor. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had
revoked the waivers in May, 2020, accusing Iran of “nuclear extortion” for
continuing and expanding work at the sites. Critics of the nuclear deal who
lobbied Trump to withdraw from it protested, arguing that even if the Biden
administration wants to return to the 2015 deal it should at least demand some
concessions from Iran before up front granting it sanctions relief.
“From a negotiating perspective, they look desperate: we’ll waive sanctions
before we even have a deal, just say yes to anything!” said Rich Goldberg, a
vocal deal opponent who is a senior adviser to the hawkish Foundation for
Defense of Democracies.
One senior State Department official familiar with the waivers maintained that
the move is not a “concession” to Iran and was being taken “in our vital
national interest as well as the interest of the region and the world.” The
official was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly and spoke on
condition of anonymity.
Iran: At Least 46 Executed in January 2022
Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO)/February 04/ 2022
At least 46 people were executed in Iran in January alone, with 17 executed on
drug-related charges. 15 men were Baluch minorities. This is significantly
higher than the same period in the last four years. Condemning the executions by
the Islamic Republic and recalling the rise in the number of the executions in
the shadow of the last round of nuclear talks, Iran Human Rights calls upon the
international community to pay closer attention to the deteriorating human
rights situation and rise in executions in Iran. Iran Human Rights Director,
Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam said: “Given the sharp rise in the number of executions
during the previous nuclear talks, the international community must not turn a
blind eye to the current wave of executions as the nuclear talks continue. We
reiterate that the international community must prioritise human rights,
especially the death penalty, in any negotiations with the Islamic Republic;
sustainable peace and stability are impossible without upholding human rights.”
According to information obtained by Iran Human Rights, at least 46 people were
executed in Iranian prisons in January 2022. Of those, only six were reported by
domestic media and officials in Iran and the other 40 were independently
verified by Iran Human Rights. The number is significantly higher than those of
the same period in previous years; 27 in 2021, 33 in 2020 and 36 in 2019. Of the
46 executions, 17 were for drug-related offences and 21 were sentenced to qisas
(retribution-in-kind) for murder.
One of the executions was based on a qassameh testimony. Qassameh is based on
swearing an oath on the Quran by 50 people in “premeditated murder” cases and 25
people in “quasi-premeditated murder” cases and is performed when the judge
decides that there is not enough evidence proving guilt of a crime, but still
thinks that the defendant is most probably guilty. It should be noted that the
people who swear in qassameh ceremonies are not usually direct witnesses to the
crime. The execution of Baluch minorities has also continued, with 15 of the 46
people executed being Baluch minorities from Sistan and Baluchistan province.
During a wave that began over a year ago, there has been a dramatic rise in the
number of Baluch executions.
Iran regime’s ‘Death to America’ wrestling head cancels
match with US team after visa denial
Benjamin Weinthal/ Fox News/February 04/2022
Iranian wrestler Alireza Dabir won a gold medal in freestyle wrestling at the
2000 Sydney Olympics
In a letter sent to the president of USA Wrestling, Bruce Baumgartner, Iranian
wrestler Alireza Dabir wrote, “I am very sorry to announce that the national
wrestling team of the Islamic Republic of Iran, due to not granting visas to 6
members of this team, is not able to participate in a friendly match with the
U.S. national team.”Fox News Digital broke the story in January that Dabir, who
obtained a U.S. residency green card, urged the violent destruction of America
during an event celebrating the life and work of the U.S.-designated terrorist
Qassem Soleimani.
Soleimani led the Quds Force, a division of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps, a U.S.-designated terrorist entity that has been responsible for killing
more than 600 American military personnel. He died in a targeted killing in
January 2020, slain by an American drone strike in Baghdad.
Dabir won a gold medal in freestyle wrestling at the 2000 Sydney Olympics.
Sardar Pashaei, the Iranian American former head coach of Iran’s national
Greco-Roman wrestling team, told Fox News Digital, “I am glad that the U.S.
State Department did not issue visas to those who said ‘Death to America’ and
at the same time wanted to enter the United States. This policy must be
implemented by the U.S. government against all Iranian officials who hate the
United States. Why should people like [former Iranian Vice President] Masoumeh
Ebtekar, who took the U.S. embassy hostage in Iran and humiliated Americans,
have her family in the U.S.?”Pashaei, himself a former world champion in
Greco-Roman wrestling, added, “The reaction of the USA Wrestling on this issue
was very unfortunate. During this time, they remained completely silent and
continued to try to bring in Iranian officials who threatened the American
people. We urge USA Wrestling sponsors, including the Marine Corps, to
reconsider their support for the U.S. wrestling federation.”Rich Bender, the
executive director of USA Wrestling, previously declined to answer Fox News
Digital queries about Dabir’s loathing of America and his call for the violent
destruction of the United States. Pashaei manages the United for Navid
organization, which campaigns to secure justice for the murdered Iranian
Greco-Roman wrestler Navid Afkari. Iran’s theocratic regime executed Afkari in
September 2020 for his role in a 2018 protest against its political and economic
corruption. The clerical state’s opaque judiciary in Shiraz, where Afkari was
hanged, claimed he killed a security guard tracking the demonstrators, but the
prosecution provided no proof that Afkari committed murder. The Trump
administration sanctioned prison and judicial officials for the murder of Afkari.
Masih Alinejad, an Iranian American journalist and women’s rights campaigner and
the founder of United for Navid, tweeted: “‘Death to America’ getting [i.e.,
preventing] Alireza Dabir, Iran’s wrestling chief from coming to America. He
also defends war criminal Gassem Soleimani in this video. @UnitedForNavid is the
voice of Iranian people who never support a terrorist & refusing to say dealt h
to America.@sardar_pashaei.”The Iranian regime-controlled Fars News Agency,
which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, pinned the blame
on Fox News Digital’s exposure of Dabir’s anti-American tirade and Pashaei for
the cancellation of the wrestling competition in Texas. In January, a U.S. State
Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital on “The U.S. and Iranian Wrestling
teams are scheduled to compete against one another in an event planned for
February 12, 2022, called ‘The Bout at the Ballpark.’“Matters involving visa
issuance for any individual members of the Iranian team are subject to Privacy
Act concerns and will be adjudicated strictly in accordance with U.S. law,” the
spokesperson continued.
“As National Security Advisor [Jake] Sullivan said earlier this week, ‘We are
united in our resolve against threats and provocations. We are united in the
defense of our people. We will work with our allies and partners to deter and
respond to any attacks carried out by Iran. Should Iran attack any of our
nationals… it will face severe consequences.’”
*Benjamin Weinthal is a Jerusalem-based journalist and a fellow for the
Foundation for Defense of Democracies. You can follow Benjamin on Twitter, @BenWeinthal.
FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Danish Court Convicts Iranian Separatist Group of Spying
for KSA
Agence France Presse/Friday, 4 February, 2022
A Danish court on Friday convicted three leaders of an Iranian Arab separatist
group based in the Scandinavian country of spying for Saudi intelligence between
2012 and 2020. The three, aged 40 to 51 and one of whom is a Danish citizen, are
members of the separatist organization ASMLA (Arab Struggle Movement for the
Liberation of Ahvaz), which Iran considers a terrorist group. Their sentencing
will be announced in March. They face up to 12 years in prison. Following a
lengthy trial held behind closed doors, the Roskilde court found the trio guilty
of "gathering information on individuals and organizations, in Denmark and
abroad, as well as on Iranian military affairs, and transmitting this
information to a Saudi intelligence service".The trio was also found guilty of
"promoting terrorism" for supporting the activities of ASMLA's armed branch. The
jury found that "the actions and attacks of these movements are terrorist
attacks which exceed the limits of legitimate freedom fighting".They were also
convicted of "financing and attempted financing of terrorism", for having
received 15 million kroner (two million euros) from a Saudi intelligence agency
as well as having tried to obtain another 15 million from the same source.
The money was aimed at financing ASMLA's activities, the court found. The three
have been held in custody in Denmark since February 2020, under special
protection due to the nature of their case. The case dates back to 2018 when one
of the three was the target of a foiled attack on Danish soil believed to be
sponsored by the Iranian regime in retaliation for the killing of 24 people in
Ahvaz, southwestern Iran, in September 2018. Tehran formally denied the attack
plan in Denmark, but in 2020 a Danish court jailed a Norwegian-Iranian for seven
years for his role in the plot. That attack put Danish authorities on the trail
of the trio's ASMLA activities.
Inside US Raid on ISIS Leader: Months of Preparation, Then a Deadly Blast
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
US forces rehearsed the helicopter raid over and over, hoping to capture ISIS's
leader on the third floor of a residential building in a Syrian town on the
Turkish border, where he was holed up with his family. But before they could
reach him, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Quraishi detonated a suicide bomb,
triggering a large explosion that blew mangled bodies -- including his own --
out of the building into the streets outside. President Joe Biden, who monitored
the raid from the White House's Situation Room, called Quraishi's suicide a
"final act of desperate cowardice." It echoed of the self-detonation of a bomb
by his predecessor, ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, during a US raid in 2019
in Syria. For residents in the town of Atmeh, the events were terrifying, as US
forces swept in aboard helicopters before trying to evacuate civilians from the
cinder-block building, using loudspeakers to tell them to leave.
"Men, women, and children raise your hands. You are in safety of the American
coalition that is surrounding the area. You will die if you don't get out," said
one woman recounting the US warnings. Marine General Frank McKenzie, who
oversees US forces in the region and was providing updates to Biden, said US
troops got six civilians, including four children, to leave the first floor of
the building before the blast ripped apart the top floor. "The explosion, which
was more massive than would be expected from a suicide vest, killed everyone on
the third floor and in fact ejected multiple people from the building," McKenzie
said, adding that Quraishi, his wife and two children died. A second US official
later said two of Quraishi's wives and one child were killed. As US troops
advanced to the second floor, one of Quraishi's lieutenants and his wife started
firing on the Americans and were killed. One child was found dead there,
McKenzie said, and three other children and an infant were brought to safety
from the second floor. Syrian rescue workers said at least 13 people died, most
of them women and children. The Pentagon said at least two armed members of a
local al-Qaeda affiliate were killed by gunfire from a U.S. helicopter after
they approached the scene of the raid while U.S. troops were still at the site.
Target on third floor
US officials said Quraishi's death was another setback for a group that seized
territory across Syria and Iraq. It is now waging insurgent attacks. Planning
for the operation began in early December, when officials became convinced the
ISIS leader was living in the building, the officials said. Biden received a
detailed briefing on options for capturing Quraishi alive on Dec. 20, a senior
White House official said. One official said the operation was complicated by
the fact Quraishi rarely left his residence on the building's third floor and
relied on couriers to interact with the outside world. The number of children
seen in the area and families believed to be living on the first floor led US
officials to try to craft a mission aiming to safeguard civilians, they said.
That ultimately required putting US forces at risk in a raid, instead of
launching a remote strike, the officials said. US military procedures to guard
against civilian casualties are under scrutiny following a high-profile mistaken
drone strike in Kabul during the US evacuation of civilians from Afghanistan
that the Pentagon initially hailed a success. The Pentagon said it would review
all the information from the Atmeh raid to ensure no civilians were harmed by US
forces, but stressed all indications so far were that civilian deaths were
caused by ISIS fighters themselves. Biden gave final approvals for the mission
on Tuesday during an Oval Office meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and
General Mark Milley, who as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is the top
American military officer, US officials said. Biden, Vice President Kamala
Harris and other administration officials received real-time updates from
Austin, Milley and McKenzie as they watched the operation unfold on several
screens from the Situation Room, the officials said. Biden joined the group in
the Situation Room around 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday after finishing a call with
French President Emmanuel Macron on an unrelated topic, the White House official
said. At one point, a helicopter involved in the raid suffered a mechanical
failure and had to be destroyed rather than left behind, the Pentagon said.
Biden said "God bless our troops" once US forces were wheels up after the
operation, and kept tabs on them during the night as they flew to safety,
officials said. Once US forces were in safety, Biden reflected on an airstrike
carried out in 2015 - when he was serving as vice president - that killed
another ISIS leader and injured Quraishi, costing him a leg, the White House
official said. Milley told Biden that US forces hit "a visual ID jackpot" when
they viewed Quraishi's body and confirmed his identity using biometric data
taken from a fingerprint during the flight back, the official said. They waited
to announce his death until after a DNA test was completed, the official added.
"He was on our target list from the earliest days of the campaign. He was
Baghdadi's right-hand man, and ... was personally responsible for some of the
most vicious ISIS atrocities," the official.
Watchdog Says 100s of Boys Missing from Kurdish Syria
Prison
Associated Press/Friday, 4 February, 2022
Hundreds of boys are missing from a Syrian Kurdish prison that held members of
the Islamic State group and their families, after the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces
fought IS militants for 10 days to retake the facility, an international human
rights group said Friday. The report by Human Rights Watch came a day after IS's
top leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, was killed in a U.S. raid on his
safehouse in northwest Syria. President Joe Biden said al-Qurayshi had been
responsible for the Syria prison assault, as well as genocide against the Yazidi
people in Iraq in 2014. The children are from a mix of backgrounds and
nationalities. Some were brought from their own countries by their jihadi
parents who joined the so-called "caliphate" declared in 2014 over parts of
Syria and Iraq, while others were born there. They were incarcerated because
many governments have refused to repatriate them, while Kurdish authorities have
expressed concern they may have extremist tendencies. It is unclear how many of
the boys in the prison were trained by IS, or whether any had committed crimes.
The prison in Syria's northeastern city of Hassakeh, known as Gweiran or al-Sinaa,
held over 3,000 inmates, of which some 600 were children. "The Syrian Democratic
Forces began evacuating men and boys from the besieged prison days ago, yet the
world still has no idea how many are alive or dead," said Letta Tayler of Human
Rights Watch, speaking of the Kurdish-led force. While boys were held separately
from adults, the groups mixed when IS militants stormed the prison in a
jailbreak on Jan. 20. Some inmates escaped, while others including child
detainees were taken hostage in the ensuing battle.
At a press conference on Monday, SDF commander Nowruz Ahmad stated that her
forces had gained total control of the prison and confirmed that 77 prison
employees, 40 Kurdish fighters, and 4 civilians were killed, alongside 374 IS
detainees and attackers. She provided no breakdown of the dead detainees, or how
many of them were children. A Canadian detainee interviewed by the New
York-based rights group said he believed "tens of children" were killed. The
US-led coalition against IS said the escaped detainees were being held at a more
secure facility. The HRW report urged the SDF to allow international
humanitarian groups to visit detainees it has evacuated or recaptured from the
prison, and to provide basic care. "The al-Sinaa prison crisis was the
predictable result of governments turning a blind eye to the fate of their
nationals and all others held in horrific conditions in northeast Syria," Tayler
said. "This assault should be a wakeup call to countries that outsourcing
responsibility for their nationals won't make this problem go away," she said.
"It will only increase the suffering of these detainees, most of them young
children."
Biden Joins Sheikh Al-Azhar, Pope Francis in Calling for
‘Human Fraternity'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
US President Joe Biden joined Pope Francis and a leading Sunni imam on Friday in
calling for greater global cooperation to fight the coronavirus pandemic,
climate change and other world crises on the second anniversary of a landmark
Christian-Muslim peace initiative.
The Vatican released a statement from Biden marking the International Day of
Human Fraternity, a UN-designated celebration of interfaith and multicultural
understanding inspired by a landmark document signed on Feb. 4, 2019, in Abu
Dhabi by Francis and Sheikh Ahmad al-Tayyeb, the imam of the Al-Azhar center for
Sunni learning in Cairo. The document called for greater mutual understanding
and solidarity to confront the problems facing the world. With the backing of
the United Arab Emirates, the initiative has gone on to create a high-level
commission to spread the message, and Friday's anniversary celebration included
a video message from Francis that was also translated into Hebrew. In his
statement, Biden said “for too long, the narrowed view that our shared
prosperity is a zero-sum game has festered — the view that for one person to
succeed, another has to fail..." Such a view, he said, had led to conflicts and
crises that are today too big for one nation or people to solve. “They require
us to speak with one another in open dialogue to promote tolerance, inclusion
and understanding," he said. Biden, a Catholic, met with Francis in October in a
lengthy audience that touched on climate change, poverty and the pandemic.
US Says Window for Talks with Iran is ‘Very, Very Short’
Washington – Muath Alamri/Friday, 4 February, 2022
The Biden administration is blaming the former Trump administration for
triggering Iran’s decision to enrich more uranium to a higher degree of purity
by pulling out from the Iran nuclear deal in 2017. Ned Price, a US State
Department spokesman, made the justification after a “barrage of criticism”
launched by Senator Bob Menendez, a Democrat from New Jersey, and the Chairman
of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee. Menendez had criticized the Biden
administration’s approach in handling Iran and its policy at negotiations in
Vienna. In a press briefing at the US State Department, Price told Asharq Al-Awsat
that concerns regarding Iran expanding its nuclear program could be traced back
to the Trump administration’s decision to pull out from the 2015 deal. “These
are advancements that Iran has been in a position to make ever since the last
administration decided to leave the Iran deal, a deal that was verifiably and
permanently preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,” said Price.
“When the Iran deal was fully implemented, the so-called breakout time to which
you refer was one year, meaning that it would take Iran one year to accumulate
the fissile material necessary for a nuclear weapon if it chose to do so,” he
added. Nevertheless, Senator Menendez had warned that the breakout time could
take place in three to four weeks. “Now, that is separate and apart from the
weaponization process. We’re very concerned with both of these processes. But
purely from an enrichment standpoint, that breakout time was a year,” stated
Price. “Now – my colleague alluded to this a couple days ago – that breakout
time is significantly less. And that is precisely because of the decision to
leave the JCPOA that was working to elongate that breakout time,” he explained.
Price moves on to note that the Biden administration finds itself facing an
unfortunate set of circumstances, which means that the window to reach a nuclear
deal with Iran is closing fast. That window is very, very short precisely
because once Iran reaches the point where its nuclear advances have obviated the
nonproliferation benefits that the nuclear deal conveyed, that’s a point at
which it will no longer make sense to pursue a mutual return to compliance with
the agreement. Price warned that if a joint return to compliance fails, the US
national security interest and the national security interest of allies and
partners around the world would mean that the US needs to “pursue another
course.”“The reason the breakout time is – can be measured in weeks instead of
months is precisely because Iran did not feel encumbered by the deal that the
previous administration chose to abandon,” noted the spokesman. Moreover, an
official source at the US State Department confirmed to Asharq Al-Awsat that
Robert Malley, the US special envoy to Iran, will return to Vienna on Friday to
discuss mutual return to compliance with the deal with the participating parties
(P5+1) and Iran.
The source stated that the proposal that Malley and the negotiating team will
carry to Vienna has not changed, which stipulates the complete return to
compliance with the deal. Iran must “take many steps to show serious commitment
to reach the agreement and make negotiations succeed.”
Next Wednesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to hold a
closed-door hearing, in the presence of Malley, who will brief the body on the
negotiations in Vienna. It is noteworthy that the US administration faces many
criticisms in Congress due to its handling of the Iranian nuclear file, the
negotiations in Vienna, and the resignations in the ranks of the US negotiating
team. Many observers believe that the resignations were a result of the
divisions between Malley and his team members beginning to surface. In a Senate
speech earlier this week, Menendez openly criticized the Biden administration
for its insistence to stick to nuclear negotiations in Vienna, despite Tehran’s
grave proximity to owning a nuclear weapon. He stressed that the breakout time
is three to four weeks, according to experts. The prominent senator called on
the Biden administration and international partners to pressure Iran to confront
its nuclear and missile program and its dangerous behavior in the Middle East,
including attacks against US and US interests in the region.
Macron to Visit Russia, Ukraine in Mediation Trip
Associated Press/Friday, 4 February, 2022
French President Emmanuel Macron will head to Moscow and Kyiv next week as part
of his push to try to deter Russian President Vladimir Putin from launching an
invasion of Ukraine and find a diplomatic way out of the growing tensions. The
visit Monday and Tuesday comes after the U.S. accused the Kremlin on Thursday of
an elaborate plot to fabricate an attack by Ukrainian forces that Russia could
use as a pretext to take military action. The U.S. has not provided detailed
information backing up the claims. While France is a major player in NATO and is
moving troops to Romania as part of the alliance's preparation for possible
Russian action, Macron has also been actively pushing for dialogue with Putin
and has spoken to him several times in recent weeks. The two will hold a
one-on-one meeting Monday, Macron's office said Friday. Macron is following a
French tradition of striking a separate path from the United States in
geopolitics, as well as trying to make his own mark on this crisis and defend
Europe's interests. But after weeks of talks in various diplomatic formats have
led to no major concessions by Russia and the U.S., it's unclear how much impact
his trip will have. In a call Wednesday with U.S. President Joe Biden, Macron
filled him in on his diplomatic efforts. In talks with the Russian and Ukrainian
leaders Thursday night, Macron's office said they discussed ways to "identify
elements that could lead to de-escalation," and "conditions for strategic
balance in Europe, which should allow for the reduction of risks on the ground
and guarantee security on the continent."Russia has amassed more than 100,000
troops near Ukraine's northern and eastern borders, raising concern that Moscow
might invade again, as it did in 2014. The troop presence and uncertainty have
unnerved Ukrainians and hurt the country's economy. Russian officials deny that
an invasion is planned. Putin, who is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jingping
in Beijing on Friday as the Winter Olympics open, has been signaling an apparent
readiness for more talks with Washington and NATO in recent days. Some experts
say that as long as Russia and the West keep talking, that's a reason for
cautious optimism. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also offered to
mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile in Washington, U.S.
officials said a plan for a fake attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking
people was described in declassified intelligence shared with Ukrainian
officials and European allies in recent days. It was the latest example of the
Biden administration divulging intelligence findings as a tactic to stop Russian
disinformation efforts and foil what it says is Putin's attempt to lay the
groundwork for military action. In recent weeks, the White House has said that
U.S. intelligence shows Russia has launched a malign social media disinformation
campaign against Ukraine and has dispatched operatives trained in explosives to
carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces. Britain has
divulged intelligence findings that it says show Russia plotting to install a
pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine.
US Claims Evidence of Moscow Plan for 'False Flag'
Ukrainian Attack
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
The Pentagon said Thursday it had evidence of a plan by Moscow to film a fake
Ukrainian attack on Russians to justify a real assault on its pro-West neighbor.
"We do have information that the Russians are likely to want to fabricate a
pretext for an invasion," said Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby.
He told reporters that Washington believed the Russian government plans to stage
an attack by the Ukraine military or intelligence forces "against Russian
sovereign territory, or against Russian speaking people."The latter could refer
to the sizeable Russian-speaking population inside Ukraine, AFP said.
"As part of this fake attack, we believe that Russia would produce a very
graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be
depicting mourners and images of destroyed locations," he said. That could allow
Moscow, which has amassed more than 100,000 troops and heavy offensive arms on
Ukraine's border, with an excuse for invading.
Question of evidence
Neither Kirby nor State Department Spokesperson Ned Price, who also commented on
the alleged plan, offered evidence to back the claim. Kirby said part of the
plan would be to make the Ukrainian military equipment used in it appear to be
supplied by the West, he said, further justifying Russian reprisals against
Ukraine. "We've seen these kinds of activity by the Russians in the past and we
believe it's important when we see it like this that we can call it out," Kirby
said. "I would just say that our experience is that very little of this nature
is not approved at the highest levels of the Russian government," Kirby said
about the purported plan. Price said the alleged plan is "one of a number of
options that the Russian government is developing as a fake pretext to initiate
and potentially justify military aggression against Ukraine." He said the United
States did not know if Moscow has decided to go through with the plan. "Russia
has signaled it's willing to continue diplomatic talks as a means to
de-escalate, but actions such as these suggest otherwise," Price said. Pressed
on whether there was evidence of such a plan, Price said it came from US
intelligence, but offered no more details. "I'm not going to spell out what is
in our possession but I will leave that to your judgement," he told reporters.
Asked later Thursday if the United States might be adding fuel to the fire by
sending troops and aid, Kirby said Washington was trying to reassure NATO
allies. "One, we continue to flow security assistance to Ukraine, so that they
can better defend themselves against this threat," Kirby said during an
interview on Fox News. "And, number two, and this is really important: to make
sure we are reassuring our allies, allies to whom we have significant security
commitments."British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss called the US claim of Moscow's
false flag operations "clear and shocking evidence of Russia's unprovoked
aggression and underhand activity to destabilize Ukraine.""The only way forward
is for Russia to de-escalate, desist and commit to a diplomatic pathway," she
said in a tweeted statement.
US Warns Chinese Firms against Helping Russia against
Potential Ukraine Sanctions
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
The United States warned Chinese firms on Thursday they would face consequences
if they sought to evade any export controls imposed on Moscow in the event of
Russia invading Ukraine. US State Department spokesman Ned Price made the remark
after China's Foreign Ministry said China and Russia had coordinated their
positions on Ukraine during a meeting between their foreign ministers in Beijing
on Thursday. "We have an array of tools that we can deploy if we see foreign
companies, including those in China, doing their best to backfill US export
control actions, to evade them, to get around them," Price told a regular news
briefing. Western countries say any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would bring
sanctions on Moscow and Washington has said it is prepared to impose financial
sanctions as well as export-control measures. White House national security
official Peter Harrell said on Wednesday that Washington was working on the
export-control measures with allies in Asia, including Japan and South Korea.
Price said Russia should know that a closer relationship with Beijing would not
make up for the consequences imposed in response to an invasion. "If Russia
thinks that it will be in a position ... to mitigate some of those consequences,
by a closer relationship with (China), that is not the case. It will actually
make the Russian economy, in many ways, more brittle," he said. "If you deny
yourself the ability to transact with the West, to import with the West, from
Europe, from the United States, you are going to significantly degrade your
productive capacity and your innovative potential." Price said US Secretary of
State Antony Blinken and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi had an extended
discussion on potential implications of Russian action against Ukraine in a
phone call last week.
Asked to comment on Price's remarks, Liu Pengyu, the spokesman for China's
Washington embassy, replied: "We have noted relevant reports. Creating tensions
does no good to easing the Ukraine crisis, but only adds more uncertainties to
the region and the whole world. China is firmly opposed to this."China's foreign
ministry earlier said Wang met with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and
expressed "understanding and support" for Russia's position on security
regarding Russia's relationship with the United States and NATO. It said both
sides coordinated their positions on regional issues of common concern, such as
Ukraine, Afghanistan and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. The UN Security
Council is due to meet on Friday at the request of the United States and Britain
after North Korea's launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile last
weekend. The United States has been pushing for more international sanctions on
North Korea over a recent spate of missile tests, but last month China and
Russia delayed a US bid to impose UN sanctions on five North Koreans linked to
their country's weapons programs. Lavrov is in Beijing with President Vladimir
Putin, who will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday before attending the
opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
Erdogan Says Turkey, Israel Can Jointly Bring Gas to Europe
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
Turkey and Israel can work together to carry Israeli natural gas to Europe and
the two countries will discuss energy cooperation during talks next month,
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was quoted as saying on Friday. The two
countries expelled their ambassadors in 2018 after a bitter falling-out. Ties
have remained tense since with Ankara condemning Israel's occupation of the West
Bank and its policy toward Palestinians, while Israel has called on Turkey to
drop support for the Palestinian group Hamas which rules Gaza. However, Turkey
has been working to repair its strained ties with regional powers as part of a
charm offensive launched in 2020. In an apparent easing after years of
animosity, Erdogan said on Thursday that Israeli President Isaac Herzog would
visit Turkey in mid-March. "We can use Israeli natural gas in our country, and
beyond using it, we can also engage in a joint effort on its passage to Europe,"
Erdogan told reporters on a return flight from Ukraine. "Now, God willing, these
issues will be on our agenda with Mr. Herzog during their visit to Turkey," he
was quoted by Turkish TV media as saying. Erdogan had visited Ukraine to discuss
the crisis there. While Erdogan has spoken to Herzog amid tensions before, the
Israeli presidency is a largely ceremonial role. In November, he spoke to
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the first such call in years. Erdogan on
Wednesday met Nachirvan Barzani, the president of Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish
region. Asked what was discussed, Erdogan said Ankara wants to sign a natural
gas supply deal with Iraq and is holding talks on this. "We have now taken the
Iraq issue on our agenda. We are now thinking about it. There may be a supply on
the natural gas side from Iraq to Turkey," Erdogan said, adding Barzani had
promised to facilitate talks.
Russia and China Tell NATO to Stop Expansion, Moscow Backs
Beijing on Taiwan
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
Russia and China called in a joint statement on Friday for NATO to halt its
expansion while Moscow said it fully supported Beijing's stance on Taiwan and
opposed Taiwanese independence in any form. The joint statement, including harsh
criticism of the United States, was issued during Russian President Vladimir
Putin's visit to China for the Winter Olympics. The Kremlin said Putin and
Chinese President Xi Jinping held warm and substantive talks in Beijing and
described the relationship as an advanced partnership with a special character.
Putin also unveiled a major new gas deal with China, a further sign of the
deepening of the relationship between the two neighbors at a time of high
tension in their relations with the West. "The Russian side reaffirms its
support for the One-China principle, confirms that Taiwan is an inalienable part
of China, and opposes any forms of independence of Taiwan," the joint statement
said. The two countries expressed concern about "the advancement of US plans to
develop global missile defense and deploy its elements in various regions of the
world, combined with capacity building of high-precision non-nuclear weapons for
disarming strikes and other strategic objectives." They said they opposed
further enlargement of US-led NATO and called on the alliance to abandon its "ideologized
Cold War approaches". A halt to NATO's eastwards addition of new member states
is a key demand of the Kremlin in its standoff with the West over Ukraine. The
United States has rejected some of Moscow's key proposals but said it is willing
to discuss other topics such as arms control. China supports Russia's proposals
to create legally binding security guarantees in Europe, the joint statement
said. The Kremlin said the presidents also discussed the need to broaden trade
in national currencies because of unpredictability surrounding the use of the
dollar. US President Joe Biden has said Russian companies could be cut off from
the ability to trade in dollars as part of sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine.
Russia, China Hit Out at U.S. Influence in Europe and
Asia
Agence France Presse/Friday, 4 February, 2022
Moscow and Beijing criticized what they said was negative US influence both in
Europe and the Asia-Pacific region after a Friday meeting between Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Putin and Xi met in
Beijing ahead of the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games, as both their
countries face increasing criticism from Washington. A document agreed by Russia
and China and released by the Kremlin said they "oppose the further expansion of
NATO" and call on the U.S.-led defense bloc to abandon "Cold War era"
approaches. Talks between the Russian and Chinese leaders come as Moscow is in a
diplomatic stand-off with the United States over Ukraine, demanding that NATO
curb its eastwards expansion. Russia said it wants NATO to guarantee that it
will not admit new members, especially Ukraine, and that Washington will not
establish new military bases in ex-Soviet countries. In the document, Moscow and
Beijing also criticized Washington's "negative impact on peace and stability" in
the Asia-Pacific region. It said they were "seriously concerned" by the AUKUS
defense alliance including Australia, Britain and the United States, especially
their cooperation on nuclear submarines. "Russia and China believe that such
actions are contrary to the tasks of ensuring the security and sustainable
development" of the Asia-Pacific region and "increase the danger of the start of
an arms race." The AUKUS partnership announced last September will see Canberra
acquire nuclear-powered submarines using US technology, and sparked sharp
criticism from Beijing. Also on Friday, the two countries signed strategic
agreements, including energy deals. Russian energy giant Rosneft and Chinese oil
group CNPC signed a contract for the supply of 100 million tons of oil to China
via Central Asian Kazakhstan over 10 years. Rosneft says it is Beijing's leading
oil supplier, accounting for 7 percent of China's total demand annually. CNPC
also signed a contract with Russia's Gazprom for the supply of natural gas. Once
at full capacity, the supply volume "will increase by 10 billion cubic meters
and will reach 48 billion metres per year in total", Gazprom said.
UN Demands Taliban Provide Info on Two More Missing Women
Activists
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
The United Nations has demanded the Taliban provide information on two more
women activists allegedly detained by the group this week -- bringing to four
the number missing this year. Since returning to power in August the Taliban
have cracked down on dissent by forcefully dispersing women's rallies, detaining
critics and beating local journalists covering protests, AFP said. The United
Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said late on Thursday it had
sought "urgent information" on the reported detentions of two more women
activists by the Taliban in Kabul this week.
"UN repeats its call for all 'disappeared' women activists & relatives to be
released," it said on Twitter. US special envoy to Afghanistan Rina Amiri also
called on the Taliban to respect women's rights. "If the Taliban seek legitimacy
from the Afghan people & the world, they must respect Afghans' human rights --
especially for women," she said on Twitter. UNAMA did not reveal the names of
the two women activists missing this week, but another rights advocate told AFP
that Zahra Mohammadi and Mursal Ayar had been arrested by the Taliban. "Zahra, a
dentist, used to work in a clinic. She has been arrested along with her father,"
the activist said, asking AFP not to reveal her name. Ayar was arrested on
Wednesday after a male colleague asked her for her address so he could come to
hand over her salary, the activist said. "That's how she was trapped. The
Taliban found her and arrested her."
The latest detentions come less than a month after a pair of women activists --
Tamana Zaryabi Paryani and Parwana Ibrahimkhel -- went missing after
participating in a Kabul protest. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has
expressed concern for them and four of their relatives, who all remain missing.
The Taliban have denied any knowledge of their whereabouts and say they are
investigating the matter. The Taliban have promised a softer version of the
harsh rule that characterized their first stint in power from 1996 until 2001.
But the new regime has been swift to bar women from most government jobs and
close the majority of girls' secondary schools.
Sudan's Burhan Says Army Will Only Hand Over Power to
Elected Gov’t
Khartoum - Mohammed Amin Yassin/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
Head of Sudan’s Sovereign Transitional Council General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan
said in controversial statements from Darfur that the army will only hand over
power to an elected civilian government or if a national consensus is reached.
His remarks were made on Wednesday while presiding over a meeting of the
Permanent Ceasefire Committee of the Juba Peace Agreement in El Fasher, the
capital of North Darfur state. Burhan considered completing the security
arrangements necessary to avoid destabilizing acts and called on the joint force
to protect citizens in Darfur and deter outlaws. Burhan underscored the
importance of directing arms to protect the borders and ensure the safe return
of refugees and displaced people to their villages, in light of the regional
turmoil. Upon his arrival in Khartoum, Burhan met with the Special
Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General (SRSG) for Sudan and head
of the UN Integrated Transitional Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) Volker
Perthes. The meeting touched on the current political situation in Sudan, as
well as the security situation in the Darfur region, Volcker said in a press
statement.
Discussions also tackled the UN-facilitated ongoing political consultation
process to reach consensus and end the crisis. The UN envoy stressed the need to
provide a suitable environment to make the ongoing political consultations
process successful by ending the violence that accompanies the demonstrations.
Washington: Houthi Attacks Main Obstacle to Peace Efforts
Washington - Muath Alamri/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 4 February, 2022
The United States underscored its support to its partners in the Arab Gulf,
especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, in confronting attacks by
the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen. Washington pledged to stand by Riyadh
and Abu Dhabi and provide them with the necessary supplies.
Moreover, it stressed the importance of reaching a diplomatic solution to the
Yemen crisis, while noting, however that the Houthi escalation in 2021 was a
main obstacle in peace efforts. The US had announced earlier this week it was
sending a guided missile destroyer and state-of-the-art fighter jets to help
defend the UAE against Houthi attacks. Responding to a question by Asharq Al-Awsat
during a press briefing, State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday
Washington had "spoken in recent days to our partnership with our Gulf partners,
two of whom, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who have recently come under attack from
these Houthi terrorist attacks.""These are operations that we have condemned in
the strongest terms," he stressed. Price added that the US wanted to help Saudi
Arabia and the UAE raise the rate of preventing incoming projectiles from 90 to
100 percent.
"We’re committed to working with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to help them bolster
their defenses. We’re doing that through security cooperation, through arms
transfers, defense trade, exercises, training, and exchanges. And those
exchanges are in terms of security and defense, but also in terms of human
rights and the protection of civilians, including civilian harm mitigation," he
added. Addressing criticism over the targeting of civilians and violation of
international laws, he said one must distinguish between attacks. "One is an
intentional effort to target civilians and civilian infrastructure in a third
country. Another is an effort to take on a threat that our Emirati and Saudi
partners face from the Houthis." "So I think you have to distinguish these on an
analytic level, but in our engagement with our partners, we continue to stress
the need to prevent civilian harm, the need to protect civilian life in these
operations (...) but we continue to engage our partners on this," continued
Price. "We believe that there must be a diplomatic approach to Yemen. We believe
that diplomacy is the only durable and sustainable means by which to resolve the
conflict in Yemen that has allowed the Houthis to leverage the power vacuum that
has worsened what is, by many accounts, the world’s worst humanitarian
emergency, where more than 16 million Yemenis are suffering from food
insecurity," stated the spokesperson. "This is a diplomatic challenge that we
have prioritized from essentially day one of this administration," he went on to
say. "We are committed to this mission; we believe a diplomatic solution is the
only way to resolve the conflict. We’ve always known that a diplomatic solution
is not going to be easy." "The Houthis’ Marib offensive, including repeated
attacks on civilians in Marib over the past year, has been the primary obstacle
to these peace efforts," Price remarked. He reiterated President Joe Biden's
pledge to hold the Houthis to account and review the terrorist designation of
the militias. "We will not relent in designating Houthi leaders and entities
involved in military offensives that are threatening civilians and regional
stability, perpetuating the conflict, committing human rights abuses or
violating international humanitarian law, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis,
or seeking to profit from the suffering of the Yemeni people," he stressed.
"We’ve taken a number of such actions, including in recent weeks and months
alone, and I suspect we will be in a position to take additional action given
the reprehensible attacks that we’ve seen emanate from Yemen from the Houthis in
recent days and weeks."
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
February 04-05/2022
Why Does Biden Play Favorites Among the Arab
Gulf States?
Hussain Abdul-Hussain/Townhall /February 04/2022
If you think the Biden administration is disengaging from the Middle East and
the Gulf region, think again. This week, the White House asked Congress to
designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, which “opens up a full range of
opportunities,” including exercises, operations and Qatar’s “acquisition of
capabilities,” according to the Defense Department. Qatar’s status as the
world’s top gas exporter makes it a valuable ally. The harder thing to explain
is why Biden picks favorites among the energy-rich Gulf monarchies, all of them
firmly autocratic. The president has embraced Qatar while keeping Saudi Arabia
and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at arm’s distance. In strategic terms,
Biden’s summit with the Qatari emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, entailed a
renewal of the U.S. commitment to the Carter doctrine, which extended American
military protection to energy-rich Gulf states to guarantee that their exports
keeps flowing, so the world economy keeps growing. As the emir noted in remarks
at the Pentagon, the military base at Al-Udeid in Qatar is home to more than
10,000 U.S. military personnel.
The Russian threat to invade Ukraine provides an apt reminder of why Gulf energy
is vital to Western prosperity and security. As part of a contingency plan to
deal with Moscow’s potential aggression against Kiev, which would provoke a
boycott of Russian gas, Qatar would raise its gas production to make up for the
shortfall. This would not be a stretch for Doha, which pumps five times as much
gas as Russia, the No. 6 exporter. Academic exercises may project a future built
on clean energy, but oil and gas from the Gulf states will remain vital for the
foreseeable future.
This still does not explain Biden’s preference for Doha over Riyadh and Abu
Dhabi, however. Saudi Arabia is the world’s leading oil exporter. The United
Arab Emirates (UAE) ranks fifth. Energy politics cannot explain the difference.
Adding to the puzzle is Qatar’s state-backed, industrial-scale production of
anti-American, anti-Israeli, and even crudely anti-Semitic propaganda. Doha
funds a host of media outlets, the best known of which is the Al-Jazeera
network. Some Americans imagine it is an independent and critical media outlet.
They should spend more time watching it.
One of the network’s mainstays is Yusuf Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood cleric
who once called for “the abduction and killing of Americans in Iraq” and praised
Hitler since he “managed to put [the Jews] in their place.”
More broadly, Qatari media play up an imagined portrait of the United States as
the embodiment of White European colonialism, defined by its racism and
aggressive imperialism.
While freedom of expression is an inalienable right in the United States, it
does not exist in Qatar. Al-Jazeera and its sister outlets are state-owned
enterprises, which broadcast the messages the Qatari government wants them to
broadcast.
Qatar is also a proponent of Islamism, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood
variety. The leaders of Hamas, an offshoot of the Brotherhood, have often taken
refuge in Doha. One of Qatar’s state-backed charities sponsors Islamist
organizations across the region. One grantee, who received $2.7 million in
total, was a Hamas front the Obama administration designated as a terrorist
group. Doha is also exceptionally close to Turkey’s Islamist strongman, Recep
Tayyip Erdogan.
These relationships are why, whenever Washington wants to talk to terrorists, it
calls Doha. It’s no accident that Qatar hosted negotiations with the Taliban.
Qatar also has a problematic friendship with the Islamist regime in Iran. While
Doha tries to depict its envoys’ outreach as an effort to bridge the gap between
Washington and Tehran, one might better interpret such visits as requests for
permission for the emir to visit the White House. Arguably, Qatar’s deferral to
the Iranian regime raises questions about designating Doha as a major non-NATO
ally, a minor non-NATO ally, or an ally of any kind.
Meanwhile, Saudi and Emirati leaders have pursued a very different course. The
UAE joined America’s war on terror on day one, had its F-16s fly sorties over
Afghanistan, and later over Islamic State positions in Iraq. Both the UAE and
Saudi Arabia played an instrumental role in penetrating and collecting human
intelligence on terrorist groups. The two monarchies’ government-funded media
often express pride in their alliance with America. In 2020, the UAE and
Bahrain—the latter a Saudi protégé—became the first Arab governments to
normalize relations with Israel.
The Biden administration presents its distaste for Riyadh and Abu Dhabi as a
matter of concern for human rights. If so, embracing Qatar makes no sense.
Regardless, picking Doha over other Gulf capitals sends a message that Qatar’s
role is the model that America is seeking for its allies. At countries that
fight Islamism, make peace with Israel, and stand up to the Iranian regime, the
Biden administration wags its finger. For rulers who undermine America’s
national interests at every corner, who court Tehran, and promote Islamism,
Biden rolls out the red carpet.
A renewal of the Carter doctrine makes sense yet replacing good allies with fake
ones is not the way to defend American interests.
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD). Follow him on Twitter @hahussain. FDD is a Washington,
DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and
foreign policy.
The New Worst Deal in History
Richard Goldberg/The Dispach/February 04/2022
Iran was under extreme pressure a year ago. Now it’s on the verge of a deal with
better terms than the original JCPOA.
Just a few short months since his botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, President
Biden is barreling toward another foreign policy disaster of his own making: a
stunning yet predictable “agreement” to let Iran, the world’s leading state
sponsor of terrorism, remain just steps away from the nuclear threshold while
lifting U.S. terrorism sanctions without any cessation of the regime’s support
for terrorists.
Calling this an agreement, of course, would be kind. What is likely to emerge
from Vienna, where Biden’s special envoy for Iran is making indirect overtures
to Tehran through a Russian intermediary, can best be described as a surrender.
Biden inherited the most economic leverage over another country in the history
of financial warfare. He also commands the largest and most powerful military in
the world. You’d never know either to be true from the way his administration
approached the Islamic Republic during its first year: loosening sanctions,
shredding military deterrence, and holding back political accountability for
nuclear and regional misconduct.
The 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan
of Action (JCPOA), had fatal flaws, including weak verification measures and a
raft of “sunset clauses” that gradually lifted the most important restrictions
on Tehran’s nuclear program. JCPOA proponents liked to claim the deal put Iran’s
nuclear program in a box—though it was more of a jack-in-the-box with Iran
capable of shooting out at any time of its choosing. If there’s a box involved
in Biden’s deal, it will effectively have no sides or top.
Under the impending arrangement, details of which are slowly emerging, Iran may
be allowed to produce high-enriched uranium, stockpile more of that enriched
uranium, advance its centrifuge program to hasten a future nuclear breakout,
accelerate its development of longer-range nuclear-capable missiles, and
stonewall the International Atomic Energy Agency’s investigation into undeclared
nuclear sites and materials discovered over the last three years. In exchange,
the United States would suspend terrorism and missile sanctions on Iran, not
just nuclear sanctions—providing an economic bailout to Tehran while flooding
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps with cash.
What’s more, the new arrangement would preserve the sunset provisions from the
JCPOA, which are now six years closer to taking effect than they were
originally. The date for the expiration of the international arms embargo on
Iran has already passed, the missile embargo expires next year, and the end of
all enrichment restrictions is coming in the next few years. Those sunsets were
established on condition that Iran complied with the terms of the JCPOA, yet the
new deal apparently requires no such thing. That Iran could remain non-compliant
with the JCPOA and keep the sunsets will be a significant policy question not
just for Biden, but for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who holds the power
to trigger a “snapback” of U.N. sanctions on Iran.
The travesty of this agreement is painfully compounded by one of its prime
beneficiaries: Ebrahim Raisi, the newly installed Iranian president described by
experts as a gruesome and unapologetic killer. Gone is the illusion of coming to
terms with a so-called moderate or reformer. This will be a blood pact delivered
to mass murderers and terrorists. And it will be a poke in the eye to the 1,200
Gold Star family members who asked the Biden administration not to release funds
to the regime until all federal judgments were paid to American victims of
Iran-sponsored terrorism.
The turnabout for Iran is breathtaking. A regime that was under more pressure
one year ago than it was before the JCPOA is being handed better terms than it
received under the prior deal. Despite being warned time and again to abandon
its carrot-filled, stickless negotiating strategy, the Biden administration is
poised to conclude an agreement precisely as bad as Biden’s critics predicted.
That’s apparently why Richard Nephew, the second-ranking U.S. negotiator in
Vienna —and a key player in negotiating the JCPOA in 2015—abandoned the talks
late last year. It’s also likely what prompted Bob Menendez of New Jersey, the
Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to take to the
Senate floor this week to warn the administration against this kind of
agreement. The president, keep in mind, came into office vowing to return to the
JCPOA as a springboard to negotiations over a longer and stronger deal that
would address the prior agreement’s many deficiencies. But once Tehran realized
it could race forward with its nuclear program and still receive sanctions
relaxation in return, the notion of a longer and stronger deal faded quickly.
The administration claimed it was preparing a Plan B if Iran refused to return
to the JCPOA. Plan B apparently did not include the obvious option of restoring
economic pressure and threatening the use of military force. Instead, it
consists of giving Tehran whatever it wants.
Reportedly, the White House wants to lay the blame for its bad deal at the feet
of Donald Trump, who withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in 2018. But it is a
direct result of Joe Biden’s policy choices. He decided to relax sanctions on
Iran. He decided not to respond militarily to attacks on U.S. forces, including
the death of a U.S. contractor. He decided not to hold Iran accountable before
the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He decided to rescind America’s
attempted snapback of U.N. sanctions.
Rather than reciprocate these goodwill gestures, Tehran recognized that Biden
was desperate. It began taking bold steps it never dared to risk before the 2020
presidential election, like manufacturing uranium metal, a key component of
nuclear weapons, or enriching uranium to 20 and then 60 percent purity, which is
dangerously close to weapons grade. The White House knows it cannot win a debate
on the merits of this prospective agreement. If it were submitted to the U.S.
Senate as a treaty, which it ought to be, the Senate would reject it
overwhelmingly. So it’s preparing instead for a different fight: a congressional
attempt to use the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act—a law passed by Congress in
2015 ahead of the JCPOA debate—that allows the House and Senate to consider a
joint resolution of disapproval before the president can lift sanctions.
To wage that political fight, the administration will resort to a blame game,
invoking Trump’s name whenever possible to give congressional Democrats a
political talking point. And it may falsely claim it’s this deal or war: the
same false choice that Barack Obama employed to keep just enough Democrats in
line to keep the JCPOA alive.
But the pushback from Congress should be swift and furious. Just as the
Afghanistan withdrawal will forever be Biden’s responsibility, the new worst
deal in history is a result of Biden’s policy failure alone. And since this
deal, if it runs its course, would leave Iran on the threshold of nuclear
weapons—potentially adjacent to an Israeli red line for military action—Congress
could retort, it’s not “this deal or war,” but more likely this deal and war.
Congress should also decry the illegitimacy of an agreement that suspends
terrorism sanctions without any change in the underlying conduct of Iranian
banks and companies that support the Quds Force, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other
terrorists. Congress can also rightly say that any deal that ignores an active
investigation into undeclared nuclear material and sites inside Iran would
eviscerate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—triggering a cascade of crises
in other countries in the years ahead. Members of the House and Senate need not
tie themselves to another foreign policy debacle from a White House in political
freefall. Now is the time to reject a foolhardy proposal. True “Plan Bs” do
exist. Tell the president to choose another path.
*Richard Goldberg is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. He served on Capitol Hill, on the U.S. National Security Council,
as the governor of Illinois’s chief of staff and as a Navy Reserve intelligence
officer.
Foreign Disinformation: What the US Government Can Start
Doing Now
Robert Morgus and Mark Montgomery/Just Security/February 04/2022
The Kremlin is engaged in a “global influence campaign to destabilize sovereign
countries,” including the United States, the U.S. Treasury Department
reaffirmed, as it slapped sanctions on four Ukrainians working for the Russian
Federal Security Service (FSB). America’s adversaries have leveraged
disinformation since the dawn of the nation. In the early years of the American
Revolution, the British monarchy circulated pamphlets in the colonies featuring
forged excerpts from ostensible letters written by George Washington suggesting
he sympathized with the Monarchy and that the new nation was not ready for
democracy. Chinese disinformation campaigns blaming the United States for the
origin of COVID-19 recall the Cold War’s Operation DENVER, the KGB’s
disinformation campaign promoting the conspiracy theory that HIV and AIDS were
bioweapons developed by the U.S. government. Pro-Kremlin social media
disinformation efforts during European Union elections in 2019 that implied the
EU has Nazi origins are not dissimilar from the Soviet and Czechoslovak
intelligence services’ Operation NEPTUNE to discredit West German politicians by
tying them to Nazis. In fact, Russia is wielding the same cudgel now against
Ukraine, casually and repeatedly accusing its leaders or citizens without
evidence of being “Nazis,” even in forums such as the U.N. Security Council.
While the Cold War was riddled with spectacular stories of disinformation, in
today’s technological and media environment, Russia and China can now scale
their disinformation operations and accelerate its spread in the information
ecosystems of adversaries. Disinformation also is now a much more visible topic
in U.S. political discourse, as policymakers on both sides of the aisle struggle
to define the appropriate role of the federal government in preventing and
combating foreign disinformation, other than steps that have become increasingly
common, such as sanctions against perpetrators.
This is the question taken on recently by two commissions that, while diagnosing
the challenge differently, reached a number of similar conclusions about the
steps the federal government needs to take. In December, the nonpartisan
Cyberspace Solarium Commission (CSC) issued a white paper drafted while we were
on staff. (One of us, Robert, was a lead co-author). The CSC diagnoses
disinformation as a problem facing free societies everywhere and describes
disinformation as a tool used by those with ill intent to manufacture division
and inflame tension. In November, the Aspen Institute Commission on Information
Disorder released its own report on the topic. It described structural
inequality in the United States as the disease and disinformation as a symptom.
But both commissions offered similar recommendations in several realms for how
the federal government can begin to tackle this scourge.
Social Media
On the issue of social media, for example, the CSC and Aspen agree that the
federal government should push for greater transparency on how social media
platforms sort, moderate, and remove content on their platforms. The unique
position of platforms in the information ecosystem allots them an outsized
opportunity to exert positive influence over the media and information
environment. But rather than trying to regulate content on these social media
platforms, lawmakers and regulators should endeavor to establish clearer
transparency expectations and guidelines for social media companies related to
labeling advertisements and paid content, bots, and content created by foreign
registered agents. In addition, the two commissions argue that the federal
government should work with social media companies so that the American public
better understands the various platforms’ policies on content moderation and
takedowns. In addition, both the CSC and the Aspen Commission agree that
Congress should take action to ensure that third-party researchers can access
data to better understand, identify, and – most importantly – explain foreign
disinformation campaigns to the American public. The federal government could
support these research efforts through grants to nonprofit centers, such as the
Alliance for Securing Democracy’s Hamilton 2.0 dashboard and the Atlantic
Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab. Finally, both the CSC and the Aspen
Commission identify the importance of civic empowerment and education. In
keeping with this conviction, the CSC recommends the creation of a bipartisan
Civic Education Task Force to enable greater access to civic education
resources, and raise public awareness about foreign disinformation. The task
force should be tasked with providing civic education resources, including
courses and course materials, for the military and civil servants, all while
making these materials available to the broader population.
Beyond these shared recommendations, the CSC advocates for some additional
approaches to counter foreign disinformation.
Beware of Overreach
In setting out to address the issue, the federal government must recognize its
own limitations and ensure it does not overreach. For example, with few
exceptions, the ability of the U.S. government to directly intervene in the
information ecosystem is rightly constrained by the First Amendment. Meanwhile,
since the Tenth Amendment reserves the right of states to make policy in areas
not explicitly delegated to the federal government by the Constitution, states
and local governments drive education policy and possess greater control over
the content taught in schools. Federal action also is constrained by the
appearance of inappropriate government influence over parts of society that are
better served by other stakeholders. For example, it would be inappropriate for
the government to exercise influence over journalism, which plays a key role in
holding authorities accountable. Rather than federal action to bolster
journalism, other stakeholders from civil society or private industry are better
positioned to lead this aspect of countering disinformation. With that caveat,
the CSC white paper identifies additional steps the U.S. government could take
to improve the health of America’s information ecosystem. Where foreign-owned
and operated media outlets are concerned, the federal government could do more
to improve transparency on ownership without overstepping its bounds and
censoring content. Greater transparency would help ensure that Americans are
aware of the foreign actors attempting to influence public opinion.
Updating and Expanding FARA
The Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), a law passed in 1938 in response to
Nazi propaganda, provides a framework to promote transparency regarding the
sources of information available to the American public. However, many of the
rules created by the law are antiquated, and FARA must be reformed to ensure
that all agents of foreign adversaries, including such media organizations,
register. In the last Congress, Representative (and CSC Co-Chair) Mike Gallagher
(R-Wisc) proposed the Chinese Communist Party Influence Transparency Act, which
would require all Chinese corporations to register under FARA. Congress should
look at expanding this effort to include corporations domiciled in other
adversaries like Russia and Iran. In addition, Congress should amend the
definition of “informational materials,” which registered foreign agents are
required to both label as such and report to the Department of Justice, in FARA
to make clear that social media and email communications are included. In
addition, Congress should provide greater specificity regarding the types of
social media and email communications that need to be included in FARA filings
to ensure that the Department of Justice adopts a records system that better
captures the dynamism and interactiveness of digital media and communications,
allowing, for example, for social media posts filed to be maintained along with,
for example, comments on or replies to a post, while preserving appropriate
privacy protections.
Combatting disinformation also requires imposing costs on adversaries
responsible for influence operations – what the CSC refers to as a strategy of
layered cyber deterrence in the information landscape. For example, the U.S.
government should continue to engage in robust “defend forward” operations to
dismantle adversary disinformation infrastructure and cause friction in
adversary disinformation campaigns, as it did, for example, with the Internet
Research Agency around the 2018 midterm election.
Countering adversary disinformation is a challenging policy issue. It gets to
the core of individual freedom and liberty and undermines national security and
the foundations of America’s democracy. Disinformation weaves adroitly through
modern society and networks — only sometimes visible but always threatening. No
system of government is perfect. Adversaries of the United States seek to
leverage some citizens’ frustration with democratic outcomes and the sometimes
slow and messy process by which policies are decided. This does not make
autocracy preferable to democracy: The features that make democracies uniquely
vulnerable to disinformation perpetrated by adversary nations are precisely the
elements worth protecting.
The US is negotiating a shorter, weaker Iran Deal - analysis
Lahav Harkov/The Jerusalem Post/February 04/2022
The American rhetoric surrounding the Iran Deal has gotten progressively less
assertive since talks resumed in Vienna.
When the incipient Biden administration originally spoke about negotiating with
Iran, the key words were “longer and stronger,” implying that Secretary of State
Antony Blinken sought a tougher Iran deal that would last past the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action’s 2030 expiration date.
The goal was then quietly downgraded to putting Iran “back in the box,” meaning
a return to compliance with the JCPOA. That agreement kept Iran a year from
nuclear breakout by limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity and
almost eliminating its stockpile of the fuel for a nuclear weapon, while
gradually lifting sanctions on the regime.
Now, the US is aiming even lower than that.
Iran is currently enriching uranium to 60%, with some experts saying they are
weeks away from weapons-grade 90%-enriched uranium. Weaponization – meaning,
turning the fuel into a nuclear bomb – would take more time. But the JCPOA is
focused on uranium, and any deal would, in theory, extend the time it takes Iran
to reach 90% enrichment. US officials concluded late last year that Iran had
advanced its nuclear program too far to be kept a year away from breakout, The
Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday. That means that negotiations have been
going on for over a month with the West knowing that Iran cannot be put back in
the proverbial box, and a real return to the JCPOA – with its many shortcomings
– is not possible. When Blinken said earlier this month that “it’s really now a
matter of weeks where we determine whether or not we can return to mutual
compliance with the agreement,” the American assessment already was that they
cannot, in fact, fully return to mutual compliance with the agreement. When a
senior State Department official briefed reporters this week saying, “We only
have a handful of weeks left to get a deal, after which point it will,
unfortunately, be no longer possible to return to the JCPOA and to recapture the
nonproliferation benefits that the deal provided for us,” the official knew that
they already would not be able “to recapture the nonproliferation benefits” in
full.Instead, the Journal says, the Biden administration is deliberating how
short an Iranian breakout time they’re willing to tolerate, based on how much
enriched uranium and related machinery Iran agrees to eliminate or seal in
exchange for lifting most Trump-era sanctions.
IF BREAKOUT time is less than six months, it could enable Iran to quickly
accelerate its nuclear program while impeding Washington’s response.
Plus, Iran’s expertise with advanced centrifuges – the deployment of which the
JCPOA prohibited until 2026 – is something that cannot be rolled back. Iran has
said over the last year’s negotiations that it will not agree to the destruction
of its advanced centrifuges, which allow it to enrich uranium faster than with
earlier-generation centrifuges.The timing of the assessment that the flagship
aim of the JCPOA cannot be attained appears to coincide with the departure of US
Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley’s deputy, Richard Nephew.
Nephew, a sanctions expert, departed over differences in approach with Malley,
seeking a firmer American stance.
According to a report in the Journal earlier this month, one of the areas on
which Nephew and Malley disagreed was the point at which Iran’s nuclear
advancements render the JCPOA no longer relevant. In fact, Nephew thought the
American team should have walked away from the talks in December, when Iran
launched IR-6 advanced centrifuges at its underground facility in Fordow while
refusing to negotiate from the point at which talks had left off in May. The
senior State Department official seemed to confirm the differences in opinion
when asked about Nephew in his briefing this week, saying, “The team presents a
wide range of policy options and arguments to the senior-most leadership of our
government, but at the end of the day... the Iran team implements the policies
that the president, secretary of state, the national security advisers and
others in the cabinet have decided on. This is not a matter of person; it’s a
matter of what the policy of the administration is.”Senate Foreign Relations
Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez (D-New Jersey) expressed similar
concerns this week, calling on the Biden administration to enforce existing US
sanctions and encourage the EU to reimpose JCPOA sanctions, and come up with
creative diplomatic initiatives and new strategies “for rolling back Iran’s
nuclear program and addressing its dangerous and nefarious activities.”“We are
not dealing with a good-faith actor here,” Menendez said. “Iran’s consistent
obfuscation, continual stalling and outlandish demands have left us flying
blind, especially when it comes to verifying that Iran is not engaged in
activities related to the weaponization process. I have yet to hear any
parameters of ‘longer’ or ‘stronger’ terms or whether that is even a feasible
prospect.”
Not only is Menendez right that a longer and stronger deal does not seem to be
on the way, but every indication is that at this point, the US is negotiating a
deal that is going to be shorter and weaker.
Islamic Fatwa Condemns Muslim Engagements for Being ‘Too
Western’
Raymond Ibrahim/February 04/2022
Yet another example of how the average Muslim’s lifestyle contradicts the
draconian dictates of sharia was on recent display.
During a talk show that aired on January 16, 2022, a Muslim cleric, Dr. Salem
Abdul Jalil, Secretary of Fatwa at the Egyptian House of Ifta, which specializes
in issuing fatwas, complained that most modern day Muslim engagements contradict
Islamic law, not least because they resemble Western style celebrations rather
than authentically Muslim ones, which should be more like a simple business
transaction.
He offered much sharia minutiae and legalese on this topic—including who gets
and doesn’t get gifts and how many—but his main point was that engagements
between a Muslim man and woman should be very simple and limited only to those
people directly involved (the groom, bride, and their parents.)
His austere views are hardly aberrant; many Muslim clerics agree, pointing out
that too many Muslim engagements are influenced by Western ones. Discussing, for
example, the exchange of engagement rings, Islam Q&A says,
This custom involves imitating the non-Muslims such as Christians and others. It
is not a Muslim custom at all. The Messenger (peace and blessings of Allah be
upon him) warned us against that when he said, “You will inevitably follow the
paths of those who came before you, handspan by handspan, cubit by cubit, until
even if they entered the hole of a lizard, you will follow them.” We said, “O
Messenger of Allah, (do you mean) the Jews and Christians?” He said, “Who else?”
Similarly, on Islam Web, the following question is posed:
I would like to ask about having an engagement party before concluding the
marriage contract. It will not include any intermixing between the sexes or
music. It will be a party between the two extended families in order to know
each other. Men and women will be in separate places, while the latter will not
let men hear their voices; rather, some Islamic songs will be played for
entertainment. There will be food and drink served, without extravagance. Is it
permissible, recommended or unlawful to announce the engagement? What is the
ruling on this party?
Then, after the usual Islamic benediction, the answer is given:
It is permissible to have an engagement party on the occasion of proposing to
marry a girl as long as there is no breaching of the Sharee‘ah (Islamic law)
regulations. Some scholars, mainly the Maaliki scholars, are of the opinion that
it is recommended to conceal the engagement. There is a Dha‘eef Hadeeth (weak
narration) that is given as evidence for this opinion; it states: “Announce
marriage and conceal engagement.”
Hence, the party, in the way that you mentioned, is permissible.
Allah Knows best.
This tension between the draconian dictates of sharia and mere human living has
a long paper trail among Muslims, especially when they come under the influence
of and seek to emulate Western traditions.
Consider the words of Ibn Jubayr, an Andalusian Muslim who went on pilgrimage to
Mecca in the 1180s. During his travels, he passed through Jerusalem, which was
then still under Crusader rule. Although he, as might be expected, denounced the
penchant for the “base and lower orders” of Franks to “revile” Muhammad, “the
absence of cleanliness, the mixing with the pigs, and all the other prohibited
matters too numerous to be related or enumerated,” he could not but help praise
Muslim life under Christian rule:
They [Muslim subjects] surrender half their crops to the Franks at harvest time,
and pay as well a poll-tax of one dinar and five qirat for each person. Other
than that they are not interfered with, save for a light tax on the fruit of
their trees. The houses and all their effects are left to their full possession.
All the coastal cities occupied by the Franks are managed in this fashion, their
rural districts, the villages and farms, belong to the Muslims. But their [the
Muslims’] hearts have been seduced, for they observe how unlike them in ease and
comfort are their brethren in the Muslim regions under their [Muslim] governors.
This is one of the misfortunes afflicting the Muslims. The Muslim community
bewails the injustice of the [Muslim] landlord of its own faith, and applauds
the conduct of its [Christian] opponent and enemy, the Frankish landlord, and is
accustomed to justice from him.
But, and returning to the main point of this article, it was the “seduction” of
life without the draconian dictates of sharia that most obsessed Ibn Jubayr.
After describing a Christian marriage celebration in minute detail—“an alluring
worldly spectacle” with pomp, fanfare, and musical instruments, and a “proud”
bride walking “like a dove, or in the manner of a wisp of cloud”—the amazed
Muslim implored Allah to “protect us from the seduction of such a sight.”
In short: “Beware,” he concluded in his writings to his coreligionists, “beware
of entering their lands.”
Could an Iran Deal Sway the Next Election?
Jonathan Bernstein/Bloomberg/February 04/2022
International-relations scholar Dalia Dassa Kaye has a question after reading a
New York Times story about the possibility of the US rejoining and reviving the
nuclear-weapons agreement with Iran:
This piece says the restoration of the JCPOA would “almost certainly become a
campaign issue in the midterm elections.” What do American political analysts
think? Will Americans base their votes on this issue?
The short answer is easy: No. Almost certainly not. Hardly anyone will change
their vote regardless of what happens with the Iran deal.
The long answer is a little more complicated. As far as voting is concerned,
there’s very little evidence that anyone changes their mind based on foreign
affairs. In fact, there’s little evidence that international political events,
even fairly dramatic ones, have much of an influence on presidential popularity,
with the exception of short-lived rally effects. Even the most dramatic spike in
the history of presidential polling, after the Sept. 11 attacks, gave George W.
Bush a surge that took only about 15 months to dissipate. Normal rallies are
gone in weeks, sometimes days.
The one big exception is that wars producing US casualties do usually hurt a
president’s popularity, typically after an initial positive rally. The major
examples are Harry Truman with Korea, Lyndon Johnson (and to some extent Richard
Nixon) with Vietnam, and George W. Bush with Iraq. But winning a war doesn’t
really do much for a president. George H.W. Bush was president during a brief
successful conflict with Panama, a decisive war with Iraq, and a very successful
end to the Cold War. None of that saved him from a defeat when he sought
re-election in 1992. (The most famous example of such a loss was from abroad:
Winston Churchill lost soon after World War II. For that matter, Truman’s
Democrats lost majorities in both chambers of Congress in the first midterm
after World War II.)
So my guess is that as long as war doesn’t break out with Iran, President Joe
Biden will be neither helped nor hurt by whatever happens.
That said, candidates do talk about foreign affairs during campaigns, whether or
not voters pay attention. If the US does re-enter the nuclear deal, Republicans
will criticize Biden for that. If it doesn’t, they’ll blame him as Iran grows
closer to testing a nuclear weapon. And campaign promises can be very important,
whether they change election outcomes or not. Indeed, we’ve seen that twice now
on this specific policy question: Donald Trump campaigned against the nuclear
deal in 2016 and then withdrew from it, while Biden campaigned on re-entering
and has worked toward doing so.
In part, these promises come about simply because candidates for federal office,
especially governors and others who have only minimal foreign-policy experience,
want to demonstrate competence in these areas. But another reason is because
both Democrats and Republicans have groups within their parties that care a lot
about foreign policy, in general or over specific policy areas. Winning support
from those groups may be important for winning nominations. So candidates will
try to align their policy preferences and priorities with them. And because
foreign-policy experts within the Republican Party do tend to care a lot about
Iran, we can expect Republican candidates to talk about it in 2022 and 2024.
Regardless of what voters think.
US Double Standard on Terrorism
Camelia Entekhabifard/Editor-in-chief of the Independent Persian./February,
04/2022
In a press conference on Thursday, following the killing of ISIS’s leader in
Idlib, Syria, US President Joe Biden said that the operation “sent a strong
message to terrorists around the world: we will come after you.”
After announcing the killing of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi in a
counter-terror operation, Biden added: “This operation is testament to America’s
reach and capability to take out terrorist threats no matter where they try to
hide anywhere in the world.”
Following the shocking events of 9/11, a terror attack on the twin towers of the
World Trade Center in New York that killed more than 3,000 people, what then-US
President Bush called "War on Terror" began in earnest.
With the approval of the United Nations and together with a broad coalition, the
US attacked the positions of al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan. It was almost
exactly 21 years ago when the interim government of Hamid Karzai came to be
following the fall of Taliban. To the people of Afghanistan, a world led by the
United States promised freedom, support and security.
While the international terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan had still not
been dealt with, President Bush attacked Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003; merely a
year later after he had started a war with al-Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan.
With the US attention now focused on Iraq and the war against Saddam,
Afghanistan became forgotten and neglected. The attack on Iraq led to rise of
new terrorist groups. The Iraq War thus helped inflame ethnic and religious
rivalries in the ever crisis-ridden and turbulent Middle East. In the midst of
all these conflicts, competitions and domestic clashes, al-Qaeda was
strengthened and more dangerous groups came from within its ranks: ISIS, al-Nusra
Front and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Recurrent wars and troops sent to Iraq and Syria, emergence of the "Arab
Spring", the war in Yemen and Israel-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon meant that the
focus on Afghanistan was lost. Terrorist groups grew there and militias were
able to regain their strength on Afghan soil.
Taliban and groups close to it, from the Haqqani network to the Quetta council,
some of whom allied with ISIS, brought new challenges to the people of
Afghanistan: insecurity and suicide operations of Taliban-allied terrorist
groups. The War on Terror never ceased in these 20 years. Biden decided to use
the 20th anniversary of 9/11 to end US involvement in Afghanistan. We all know
what went on to the Afghan people last summer. No need to repeat it here. But on
the early hours of Thursday, February, following the killing of ISIS’s leader,
Biden said: “We remain vigilant. We remain prepared. Last night’s operation took
a major terrorist leader off the battlefield. And it sent a strong message to
terrorists around the world: We will come after you and find you. Once again,
today, we continue our increasing efforts to keep the American people safe and
to strengthen the security of our allies and partners around the world.”
But the same Biden employs a double standard when it comes to Afghanistan. He
appeases Taliban and deals with them despite them including a large terrorist
group, i.e. the Haqqani network. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the leader of the terrorist
Haqqani network, is wanted by the FBI. The State Department promises a 10
million dollar reward for information leading to his arrest. Haqqani is also the
interior minister of Taliban’s Islamic Emirate and has repeatedly shown face in
a variety of official ceremonies.
Haqqani has accepted responsibility for planning of the 2008 terrorist attack on
Kabul’s Hotel Serena. Six people, including an American citizen, Thor Hesla,
were killed in this attack. He has also admitted that he had planned the
assassination of then-Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, in April 2008. He has
organized many more suicide attacks against the citizens of Afghanistan and
forces of the coalition.
Does the US president not know where Sirajjudin Haqaani is? Or which terror
actions he has led? Biden noted al-Qurashi’s role in the recent lethal ISIS
attack on the prison in Hasakeh in northeastern Syria, the genocide of Yazidis
in northwestern Iraq in 2014 and enslavement and sexual exploitation of Yazidi
girls and women.
But President Biden ignores the current crimes of Taliban and Haqqani in
Afghanistan. Many days have passed since the disappearance of Afghan women,
girls and civil activists. In the last six months, Biden has ignored genocidal
campaigns of Taliban against Hazara and Tajiks. Has someone not told Mr.
President that the same terrorist who was on US’s own Top Wanted lists is now
committing crimes against humanity as Taliban’s interior minister? According to
the UN, Taliban have killed hundreds of security forces of the former regime.
The eyewitnesses believe the number is much higher.
Biden’s goal from this operation (attacking al-Qurashi’s refuge) seems to not be
about countering terrorists and fighting them “anywhere in the world” but an
attempt to prevent the likely Democratic defeat in the coming midterms.
With the Idlib operation, Biden attempted to cover up the defeat in Afghanistan
and leaving of 30 million people to slaughter by Taliban, hunger, suffering,
torture and death. He wants to divert the attention of world public opinion and
the American people with an important and major operation that killed the ISIS
leader. But the US seems to have a variable definition of terrorist groups.
During the Donald Trump administration, the Yemeni Houthis had been designated
as a terrorist organization. The Biden administration de-listed them. It
seemingly fits the American interest to decide whether a group is or is not
terrorist based on a given situation. The current conditions of the Afghan
people and the rule of Taliban and the Haqqani network is an obvious example of
this double standard and varying definitions. But for the American people, even
the death of a major terrorist like al-Qurashi in Syria’s Idlib is of less
importance compared to inflation and high prices of petrol and fuel which has
led to more anger. Less than a year remains to the midterm congressional
elections, which will be held on November 8, 2022. Biden’s falling popularity in
all polls, people’s disapproval of him and the passive role of Vice President
Kamal Harris has made victory difficult for Biden and the Democrats. The
Democrats have lost credibility due to their passive international policies,
whether in Ukraine or Taiwan or in the Iranian nuclear talks, which have led
nowhere so far; and of course the hasty and the badly planned withdrawal from
Afghanistan that led to the killing of more than 10 American soldiers and
thousands of Afghans. What’s sure is that such foreign operations won’t help buy
domestic credibility for Democrats or fix the passive face of US in the
international community.
Mischief on Life Support Machine
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/February 04/2022
Ever since the roadshow known as “nuke talks with Iran” started almost 15 years
ago we have witnessed an event unique in diplomatic annals. On the surface the
whole process is designed to deal with something simple: Iran should comply with
the terms of Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) of which it was one of the
founders. In exchange the “international community” would recognize Iran’s right
to enrich uranium, a right that is already granted under NPT and does not need
further endorsement by “the international community”.And, yet, the rigmarole has
produced seven unanimously passed resolutions by the United Nations’ Security
Council and over 1,500 sanctions imposed on Iran.
Why is that?
One answer is that certain elements in Iran and in the so-called “international
community” needs to keep this pot boiling for ideological reasons. Seen from the
West, Iran is a black sheep in the region. Seen from China and Russia the
nuclear issue is an effective means of preventing Iran from returning to its
historic pro-West path. An isolated Iran has helped Russia to capture a good
chunk of its oil market while preventing it from using its immense resources of
natural gas, probably the largest in the world, to help Europe shake its
dependence on Russia. For its part China has benefited from the Iran’s isolation
by dominating the Iranian market and securing oil supplies at juicy discounts.
Both Russia and China have been careful to show Iran its place, as low as
possible by normal standards. China has excluded Iran from its grandiose “One
Belt-One World” project while Russia, as seen in the recent humiliation that
Vladimir Putin inflicted on President Dr. Ibrahim Raisi in Moscow has shown that
it treats the regime in Tehran as a vassal and not an equal partner. Thus both
the Western powers and China and Russia have been using the “nuclear talks” as a
diversion from the real issues that the world has had with the Islamic Republic
since its inception 43 years ago.
All this does not mean that China or Russia is happy about the mullahs’ systemic
mischief-making. But both act on the assumption that if Iran does beyond certain
limits they would be dealt with by the US or, more remotely, by Israel.
The current set of talks, being held in Vienna, seem set to lead to yet another
shadow solution that avoids the core issues with Iran. Latest leaks and
speculations suggest that the 5+1 powers that pretend to represent “the
international community” intend to throw a life-buoy to the mullahs who are in
sinking mode. This comes in the form of a gradual de-freezing of Iran’s assets
abroad. The figure suggested is $700 million a month for a year, the same as
negotiated by the Obama administration with President Hojat al-Islam Dr. Hassan
Rouhani but cancelled by US President Donald Trump. That would help President
Raisi cover Iran’s budget deficit for the next Iranian new year starting on
March 21. If the scheme is renewed for a further year, Tehran may be able to
spend a chunk of it buying the much-coveted fighter-bombers from Moscow. As
things stand it is unlikely that Britain, Germany and France will reap any
immediate economic benefits from the deal. They might, however, get some of
their hostages released from jails in Tehran. And that could offer Prime
Minister Boris Johnson, in difficulty for other reasons, some respite from
charges of incompetence and lack of compassion. French President Emmanuel
Macron, facing re-election in a few weeks’ time would also benefit from
appearing on TV hugging long-suffering hostages coming home.
President Joe Biden, heir to Obama’s “greatest diplomatic legacy” will also get
something. First he would undo what Trump, a hate figure for Obamaists, did.
Next, he would claim that his slogans “diplomacy is back” and “multilateralism
is back”. More importantly, from an image angle, he would get more American
hostages by Iran that Trump did with his “maximum pressure” policy while
claiming that the cash released to the mullahs was not a ransom but a
humanitarian investment.
Déjà vu again? Yes, in the past four decades, we have been there many times.
President Jimmy Carter tried it with the Algiers Accord he signed with the
mullahs. President Ronald Reagan continued the same policy by smuggling arms to
Iran. President George W. H. Bush offered his “goodwill breeds goodwill “olive
branch, lifting many sanctions and helping the mullahs live another day.
President Bill Clinton apologized to the mullahs for “the wrong that my
civilization has made” to Islam. He lifted many of the sanctions imposed by his
predecessors and even claimed that he found the political system imposed on Iran
by the mullahs to be “closer to my democratic conventions”.
President George W. Bush listed Iran as part of the” Axis of Evil” with Iraq and
North Korea. But then he invited them as equal partners in shaping the future of
Afghanistan, which meant, inter alia, accepting the mullahs' demand that
monarchy not be restored and that the new Afghan regime be designated an Islamic
Republic. His Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke of “our working
relationship” with Iran in reshaping “liberated” Iraq which meant installing of
Tehran’s lackeys, Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Nuri al-Maliki as prime minister. Obama
went further than any of his predecessors to help the mullahs live another day.
He invented a “ fatwa”, presumably by “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei to declare
building and using a nuclear arsenal is “forbidden” (haram) in Islamic shariah,
forgetting that Pakistan, an Islamic republic with a population twice that of
Iran has been a nuclear armed nation for decades. Unable to pass his scheme
through the US Congress, Obama also invented the 5+1 scheme that keeps issues
related to Iran out of the normal framework of international law. To emphasize
his keenness on helping the mullahs at a crucial time he even arranged for $1.7
billion to be smuggled to Tehran in cash via Cyprus, straight into the hands of
Gen. Qassem Soleimani’s Quds Force. Yes, we have been there, seen that and
bought the T-shirt. Iran has managed to survive on the life-support Lachine
granted it by the big powers for different reasons. But, even under
life-support, its has continued to do the mischief it deems as its raison d’etre.
Question: "Can a Christian lose salvation?"
GotQuestions.org?/February 04/2022
Answer: First, the term Christian must be defined. A “Christian” is not a person
who has said a prayer or walked down an aisle or been raised in a Christian
family. While each of these things can be a part of the Christian experience,
they are not what makes a Christian. A Christian is a person who has fully
trusted in Jesus Christ as the only Savior and therefore possesses the Holy
Spirit (John 3:16; Acts 16:31; Ephesians 2:8–9).
So, with this definition in mind, can a Christian lose salvation? It’s a
crucially important question. Perhaps the best way to answer it is to examine
what the Bible says occurs at salvation and to study what losing salvation would
entail:
A Christian is a new creation. “Therefore, if anyone is in Christ, he is a new
creation; the old has gone, the new has come!” (2 Corinthians 5:17). A Christian
is not simply an “improved” version of a person; a Christian is an entirely new
creature. He is “in Christ.” For a Christian to lose salvation, the new creation
would have to be destroyed.
A Christian is redeemed. “For you know that it was not with perishable things
such as silver or gold that you were redeemed from the empty way of life handed
down to you from your forefathers, but with the precious blood of Christ, a lamb
without blemish or defect” (1 Peter 1:18–19). The word redeemed refers to a
purchase being made, a price being paid. We were purchased at the cost of
Christ’s death. For a Christian to lose salvation, God Himself would have to
revoke His purchase of the individual for whom He paid with the precious blood
of Christ.
A Christian is justified. “Therefore, since we have been justified through
faith, we have peace with God through our Lord Jesus Christ” (Romans 5:1). To
justify is to declare righteous. All those who receive Jesus as Savior are
“declared righteous” by God. For a Christian to lose salvation, God would have
to go back on His Word and “un-declare” what He had previously declared. Those
absolved of guilt would have to be tried again and found guilty. God would have
to reverse the sentence handed down from the divine bench.
A Christian is promised eternal life. “For God so loved the world that he gave
his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have
eternal life” (John 3:16). Eternal life is the promise of spending forever in
heaven with God. God promises, “Believe and you will have eternal life.” For a
Christian to lose salvation, eternal life would have to be redefined. The
Christian is promised to live forever. Does eternal not mean “eternal”?
A Christian is marked by God and sealed by the Spirit. “You also were included
in Christ when you heard the message of truth, the gospel of your salvation.
When you believed, you were marked in him with a seal, the promised Holy Spirit,
who is a deposit guaranteeing our inheritance until the redemption of those who
are God’s possession—to the praise of his glory” (Ephesians 1:13–14). At the
moment of faith, the new Christian is marked and sealed with the Spirit, who was
promised to act as a deposit to guarantee the heavenly inheritance. The end
result is that God’s glory is praised. For a Christian to lose salvation, God
would have to erase the mark, withdraw the Spirit, cancel the deposit, break His
promise, revoke the guarantee, keep the inheritance, forego the praise, and
lessen His glory.
A Christian is guaranteed glorification. “Those he predestined, he also called;
those he called, he also justified; those he justified, he also glorified”
(Romans 8:30). According to Romans 5:1, justification is ours at the moment of
faith. According to Romans 8:30, glorification comes with justification. All
those whom God justifies are promised to be glorified. This promise will be
fulfilled when Christians receive their perfect resurrection bodies in heaven.
If a Christian can lose salvation, then Romans 8:30 is in error, because God
could not guarantee glorification for all those whom He predestines, calls, and
justifies.
A Christian cannot lose salvation. Most, if not all, of what the Bible says
happens to us when we receive Christ would be invalidated if salvation could be
lost. Salvation is the gift of God, and God’s gifts are “irrevocable” (Romans
11:29). A Christian cannot be un-newly created. The redeemed cannot be
unpurchased. Eternal life cannot be temporary. God cannot renege on His Word.
Scripture says that God cannot lie (Titus 1:2).
Two common objections to the belief that a Christian cannot lose salvation
concern these experiential issues: 1) What about Christians who live in a
sinful, unrepentant lifestyle? 2) What about Christians who reject the faith and
deny Christ? The problem with these objections is the assumption that everyone
who calls himself a “Christian” has actually been born again. The Bible declares
that a true Christian will not live a state of continual, unrepentant sin (1
John 3:6). The Bible also says that anyone who departs the faith is
demonstrating that he was never truly a Christian (1 John 2:19). He may have
been religious, he may have put on a good show, but he was never born again by
the power of God. “By their fruit you will recognize them” (Matthew 7:16). The
redeemed of God belong “to him who was raised from the dead, in order that we
might bear fruit for God” (Romans 7:4).
Nothing can separate a child of God from the Father’s love (Romans 8:38–39).
Nothing can remove a Christian from God’s hand (John 10:28–29). God guarantees
eternal life and maintains the salvation He has given us. The Good Shepherd
searches for the lost sheep, and, “when he finds it, he joyfully puts it on his
shoulders and goes home” (Luke 15:5–6). The lamb is found, and the Shepherd
gladly bears the burden; our Lord takes full responsibility for bringing the
lost one safely home.
Jude 24–25 further emphasizes the goodness and faithfulness of our Savior: “To
Him who is able to keep you from falling and to present you before his glorious
presence without fault and with great joy—to the only God our Savior be glory,
majesty, power and authority, through Jesus Christ our Lord, before all ages,
now and forevermore! Amen.”
Limited options if Russian gas supplies interrupted
John Kemp/The Arab Weekly/February 04/ 2022
US policymakers are reportedly hunting around the world for alternative
sources of gas in the event that conflict between Russia and NATO over Ukraine
interrupts pipeline supplies to Europe. Top officials have approached rival
producer Qatar as well as consuming countries in Asia, including Japan, South
Korea and even China, about diverting liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to
Europe. The diplomatic effort is likely intended to reassure European
policymakers about security of supply and stiffen their resolve to threaten
tough economic sanctions. It is also probably meant to signal NATO's resolve to
Russia as part of an escalate-to-negotiate strategy intended to demonstrate the
strongest hand and convince the Russian government to back down.Qatar has
already been rewarded with a summit at the White House and formal designation
under US law as a major non-NATO ally, which could unlock a variety of economic,
diplomatic and military benefits.
But while the highly-publicised hunt for alternative supplies has value as
diplomatic theatre, it is unlikely to improve Europe's energy security very
much. This depends on prices as much as physical availability and any sustained
interruption of Russian supplies would cause a damaging price spike in Europe
and the rest of the world. Globally, there is little spare capacity at any stage
in the LNG supply chain, as recent record prices have shown, so increased
supplies to Europe could only come at the expense of reduced supplies in other
regions. Unlike oil, where the consuming countries hold strategic stocks to
offset the risk of an embargo, gas stocks are low and designed to deal with
seasonal consumption swings rather than politically-motivated supply
interruptions. There is no gas equivalent of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve
and the network of other strategic petroleum stocks held by the 30 member
countries in the International Energy Agency. Gas is more difficult and
expensive to store than crude oil and liquid fuels and until now has been
treated as less of a national security issue.
In the event that a NATO/Russia conflict reduced or halted pipeline supplies to
Europe for more than a few days, the global production-consumption balance would
worsen and prices would surge higher for all consumers outside the United
States. Gas prices in Northwest Europe and Northeast Asia are already closely
correlated because they both draw on the same suppliers of LNG. Moreover,
consumers in Asia could only agree to re-route LNG cargoes to Europe at the cost
of reducing their own supply security next winter. Short-term swaps in which
consumers in Asia agreed to divert LNG to Europe on the understanding they will
receive the cargoes back before next winter would only postpone Europe's supply
crunch until later in the year. Longer term swaps that saw consumers in Asia
repaid after next winter would leave them facing unacceptably high risks to
their own supply security between November 2022 and March 2023. These strategies
all emphasise the essentially zero-sum nature of limited gas supplies, which in
the short term would leave all consuming countries as a group with lower gas
inventories over the next twelve months. In every scenario, a sustained
interruption of Russian pipeline supplies would result in a significant increase
in gas and electricity prices for consumers in Europe and Asia. While
governments in Western Europe, Eastern Asia and the Middle East have played
along with the gas diplomacy for the sake of their alliances with the United
States, practical commitments have been limited. Europe and Asia's policymakers
are understandably fearful of the economic and political fallout from sharply
higher gas prices, even if supplies could somehow be reallocated among them to
avoid immediate shortages. In the event of an interruption of pipeline supplies,
US and allied officials might make a rapid and high-profile announcement about
LNG diversions to blunt the immediate spike in European prices. But unless the
interruption was likely to last for only a short duration, prices would quickly
climb as traders adjusted to the prospect of a worldwide shortage by the end of
2022.
Second Islamic State Leader Killed in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Territory
Aaron Y. Zelin/The Washington Institute/February 04/ 2022
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/106087/106087/
To shed light on the intentions and capabilities of the jihadist group that runs
Idlib province, the Biden administration should clarify its relations with HTS,
including any counterterrorism cooperation.
On February 2, U.S. Special Forces conducted an operation targeting Islamic
State (IS) leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Quraishi in Atimah, an area of Idlib
province near the border with Turkey. The organization’s previous leader, Abu
Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed by a similar operation in the nearby town of
Barisha in October 2019. Both of these areas are controlled by rival jihadist
group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which split from IS in April 2013 and later
broke ties with al-Qaeda in July 2016.
Over the past few years, HTS has been attempting to establish a polity in
northwest Syria via its technocratic Syrian Salvation Government. Part of this
governance project has involved building up the group’s General Security Service
(GSS), which was formally announced in 2020 but had been operating in proto-form
for years.
Many of the announcements issued by GSS have focused on arrests of IS, al-Qaeda,
and Assad regime cells, though its operatives are also suspected of targeting
activists who oppose their parent group’s authoritarian rule. Since HTS adopted
its current name in 2017, GSS elements have publicly announced twenty-one raids
against IS cells in Idlib city, Sarmin, eastern Hama province, Salqin, Harem,
Jisr al-Shughour, Khan Sheikhoun, Tahtaya, Sarmada, Abu Dali, Mseibin, Zardana,
Kafr Naseh, and Majdaliya. The most recent raid was announced on October 7,
2021, though other operations may have been conducted but not publicized.
Apparently, however, these intensive security efforts were not enough to deter
the past two leaders of IS from using HTS territory as a base, though IS has
long refrained from publicizing any information about its activities in Idlib.
Meanwhile, some reports indicate that HTS blocked off the roads leading to the
site of yesterday’s U.S. raid, raising questions about whether the group knew of
the operation in advance or even provided intelligence that enabled it. In 2019,
HTS did not interfere with the U.S. raid against Baghdadi, though no evidence
has emerged that the group had any knowledge of his whereabouts.
Separately, U.S. drone strikes have killed a number of al-Qaeda figures in the
Idlib area since 2015. Many of the organization’s supporters believe these
strikes were enabled by HTS providing intelligence to Turkey and the United
States. Although no public proof of this accusation has come to light,
circumstantial evidence suggests there may be some truth to it.
As context for these issues, consider that HTS and its leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani,
have sought to garner support from the United States and other Western
governments over the past year or two in a bid to get themselves removed from
terrorist lists. Although that has yet to occur, their overtures did not fall on
deaf ears, at least during the Trump administration. In a spring 2021 interview
with Frontline, former U.S. special representative James Jeffrey noted that he
had engaged with the group via backchannels while serving in President Trump’s
State Department. He also noted that Washington had stopped targeting Jawlani in
August 2018. In his view, HTS was “the least bad option of the various options
on Idlib, and Idlib is one of the most important places in Syria, which is one
of the most important places right now in the Middle East.” In contrast, Biden
administration officials have been relatively quiet about their policy toward
HTS.
Going forward, it would be useful for the U.S. government to clarify its
relations (or lack thereof) with HTS and state whether it views the group as a
counterterrorism partner—however tarnished HTS might be as a former IS and AQ
affiliate that is known to have committed human rights abuses during the Syria
war. And if the group had nothing to do with the raid against Quraishi, then
major questions will arise about how competent its security services really are
given that two successive IS leaders have been based in its territory.
*Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at The Washington Institute and a
visiting research scholar at Brandeis University.