English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 30/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the
lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december30.21.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
When Herod died, an angel
of the Lord suddenly appeared in a dream to Joseph in Egypt and said, ‘Get up,
take the child and his mother, and go to the land of Israel, for those who were
seeking the child’s life are dead
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint
02/19-23/:”When Herod died, an angel of the Lord suddenly appeared in a dream to
Joseph in Egypt and said, ‘Get up, take the child and his mother, and go to the
land of Israel, for those who were seeking the child’s life are dead.’Then
Joseph got up, took the child and his mother, and went to the land of Israel.
But when he heard that Archelaus was ruling over Judea in place of his father
Herod, he was afraid to go there. And after being warned in a dream, he went
away to the district of Galilee. There he made his home in a town called
Nazareth, so that what had been spoken through the prophets might be fulfilled,
‘He will be called a Nazorean.’”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on December 29-30/2021
Amazing Sara El-Yafi and the Christmas Narrative/Charles Elias Chartouni/December
29/2021
Corona - MoPH: 3153 new Covid-19 cases, 15 deaths
President Aoun signs elections decree: May 15 for residents, May 12 for staff,
and May 8 and 6 for diaspora
President signs officer promotion decrees
President Aoun receives Minister Fayad, former minister Azou
Slow progress as Lebanon awaits IMF economic deal
Political ‘Wrestle’ Intensifies as ‘Berri Excludes Aoun’s Officers’ from
Promotion
Jumblat: Dialogue ‘Essential’ but What's More Important is Cabinet Convening
Political Silence after Aoun’s Speech: Will There be a National Dialogue?
FPM Bloc Hits Back at Miqati, Calls for Removing Salameh
Lebanon to Start Pipeline Renovation to Import Egyptian Gas
Customs Directorate seizes Captagon pills en route to Gulf
Slow Progress as Lebanon Awaits IMF Economic Deal
In Exodus From Lebanon, the Well-off Find New Home in Cyprus
Hezbollah deploys air defense systems in Syria’s Qalamoun mountains/Anna
Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Iran grapples with Hume’s paradox in Iraq and Lebanon/Elie Abouaoun/The Arab
Weekly/December 29/2021
Lebanese cling to slender hopes of a better 2022/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/ Arab
News/December 29, 2021
Lebanon: Do Not Let the Palestinians Destroy Our Country/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/December 29/2021
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 29-30/2021
Iran President Set to Visit Russia Early in New Year
Sadr meets pro-Iran rivals to negotiate government formation
Iraq Vote Victor Sadr Meets Pro-Iran Rivals
Israel Strikes Gaza after Gunfire Wounds Civilian
Israel Approves Measures for Palestinians after Leaders Meet
French-Syrian arrested for alleged delivery of chemical weapon parts to
Syria/Benjamin Weithal/Jerusalem Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Syria: Three ‘Microstates,’ Destruction, Circles of Hell
U.S. sounds caution against optimism by Iran, Russia over nuclear talks
Italian Minister Talks Migration with Tunisian President
Kuwait Swears in Fourth Govt. in Two Years
WHO: Omicron Risk Remains 'Very High'
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
December 29-30/2021
Iran’s ‘Dragging Its Feet’ on Return to
Nuclear Deal, U.S. Says/Jarrell Dillard, Jonathan Tirone, and Arsalan Shahla/Politics/Wednesday,
29 December, 2021
Iran prepares commemoration for Qasem Soleimani - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem
Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Azerbaijan looms over Turkey-Armenia normalisation push/Neil Hauer/The Arab
Weekly/December 29/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December 29-30/2021
شارل الياس الشارتوني: سارة اليافي
الرائعة وعيد الميلاد... مع فيديو تمنيات سارة الميلاد
Amazing Sara El-Yafi and the Christmas Narrative
Charles Elias Chartouni/December 29/2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/105146/charles-elias-chartouni-amazing-sara-el-yafi-and-the-christmas-narrative-with-saras-audio-christmas-wishes/
Sara El-Yafi is an interesting and fascinating public actor who departs from
conventional representations in our country, defies subsumptions and captures
the essence of what a liberal society stands for. She is the epitome of what the
Lebanese National experience has yielded in spite of all the miseries and
pitfalls of the centennial, its liberal inspiration.
She is a typical liberal public actor who invites others to discursive
engagement, a Lebanese patriot who fully embraces the historical entitlements of
a highly contested land, and a political figure who stands firm on issues while
professing "principled moderation". While listening to her last video, I
discovered the spiritual side of her personality, personal quest and overall
worldview which underpin her public career and account for her pathway.
Philosophically, her itinerary is experiential whereby the sense of truth,
justice, compassion and love connotes with basic attitudes conveyed by a
narrative, namely the one of Christmas: "a rare human memory …, that invites
everyone in with joy, and [where] everyone has a place to be seen, even the
animals are given a positive role and regarded with esteem…. It is the [story]
of insignificant people achieving big things through faith, a forlorn, modest
pregnant lady with no place to stay who gives birth to a person who will grow up
to embody love and modesty for all his life". It is a story where "there is no
money, no power, no competition, no ego, no harm, no control, no scorn, no spite
and no victimization, just human modesty and love…,”. Christmas remains “ the
most powerful story over the last 2000 years and nothing comes close to what
Christmas is in terms of a story. It’s not the story of superheroes with
unattainable powers, it is the story of the super modest humans who tapped the
most attainable superpower, which is the power of faith or the power of God,
which once again is to me "ego-less love".That’s God. She concludes her
Christmas greetings “ in spiritual remembrance of this ego-less love,…may love
unwaveringly find its way through our hearts and become our state of mind today
and always”. Merry Christmas Sara …
Corona - MoPH: 3153 new Covid-19 cases, 15 deaths
NNA/December 29, 2021
Lebanon has recorded 3153 new Covid-19 cases and 15 deaths within the last 24
hours, as announced by the Ministry of Public Health on Wednesday.
President Aoun signs elections decree: May 15 for
residents, May 12 for staff, and May 8 and 6 for diaspora
NNA/December 29, 2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed Decree No. 8590 of
December 29, 2021.
The decree calls on the electoral bodies to elect members of the Parliament.
Following is the decree text:
“The President of the Republic,
Pursuant to the Constitution, in particular Article 42 thereof,
Based on Law No. 44 issued on June 17, 2017 (electing members of the House of
Representatives) and its amendments, particularly Articles 41, 42, 88, 111 and
118 thereof,
On the proposal of the Minister of Interior and Municipalities,
Draws the following:
Article 1: The electoral bodies in all the electoral districts specified by Law
No. 44 dated June 17, 2017 and its amendments are called to elect members of the
House of Representatives, according to the following dates:
1- Voting of the Lebanese residing on the Lebanese territories on Sunday
15/5/2022.
2- Voting of the employees who will participate in the electoral process on
Thursday 12/5/2022.
3- Voting of the Lebanese who are not residing on the Lebanese territory on
Sunday 8/5/2022 in the following countries:
French Republic - United States of America - Canada - United Arab Emirates -
Australia - Federal Republic of Germany - United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland - Republic of Côte d'Ivoire - Kingdom of Sweden - Kingdom of
Belgium - Federal Republic of Brazil - Swiss Confederation - Federal Republic of
Nigeria - Italian Republic Mexico - Kingdom of Spain - Republic of Ghana -
Republic of Turkey - Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela - Kingdom of the
Netherlands - Gabonese Republic - Republic of Cyprus - Congo - Republic of
Sierra Leone - Denmark - Republic of Senegal - Romania - Democratic Republic of
Congo - Islamic Republic of Iran - Hellenic Republic - Benin Togo - Zambia -
Republic of South Africa - Republic of Liberia - Republic of Guinea - Ukraine -
Angola - Federal Republic of Russia - Mali - Burkina Faso - Austria - Republic
of Colombia - Ireland - Cameroon - Republic of Hungary - Ecuador - Republic of
Poland - Luxembourg.
4- The voting of the Lebanese who are not residing on Lebanese territory on
Friday 6/5/2022 in the following countries:
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - State of Qatar - State of Kuwait - Syrian Arab
Republic - Sultanate of Oman - Arab Republic of Egypt - Kingdom of Bahrain -
Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan - Republic of Iraq - Kingdom of Morocco.
Article 2: This Decree shall be published in the Official Gazette, notified as
needed, and implemented immediately upon its publication.
Issued by the President of the Republic in Baabda on December 29, 2021
Signature: Michel Aoun
Prime Minister
Signature: Mohamed Najib Mikati
Minister of Interior and Municipalities
Signature: Bassam Mawlawi. -----Presidency Press Office
President signs officer promotion decrees
NNA/December 29, 2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, signed officer promotion decrees
in the military corps as they were received by the government’s presidency, with
the exception of the promotion from the rank of colonel to the rank of brigadier
general, due to not sending these decrees for the two years prior to signing.
----Presidency Press Office
President Aoun receives Minister Fayad, former
minister Azou
NNA/December 29, 2021
Minister of Energy and Water Walid Fayyad asserted President Aoun’s support for
the projects launched by the ministry, in addition to the strategic project to
advance the electricity sector by increasing nutrition and improving the
performance of the Electricité du Liban, including “The approval of the gas
pipeline reform project that we launched yesterday in the oil installations, in
Tripoli.
The President had received Minister Fayyad, today at Baabda Palace and was
briefed l on the stages made by the issue of gas extraction from Egypt through
Jordan and from there to Syria and Lebanon, “Which will secure us about 4 hours
of additional feeding, with what the Jordan Electricity Company will provide us
with which are two extra hours”.
Minister Fayyad also briefed the President on the latest developments in the oil
and gas exploration file.
Minister Fayyad's Statement:
After the meeting, Minister Fayyad made the following statement:
"I had a meeting with His Excellency the President of the Republic, at my
request, first in order to greet him with a glorious Christmas, and in order to
put him next in the context of the developments we reached in the past few
weeks, especially in the outcome of the visit I made to France, and the projects
that we launched yesterday. The meeting was positive, and the most important
thing is his support for the strategic project to advance the electricity sector
by increasing nutrition and improving the performance of the Electricité du
Liban, including the approval we obtained with the support of the Prime
Minister, regarding the project to repair the gas pipeline that we launched
yesterday in the oil installations in Tripoli.
At the same time, I briefed His Excellency the President about the project to
rehabilitate our oil depots, in addition to establishing new depots that would
allow us to have a strategic stockpile of oil fuels, which would boost oil
investments in Lebanon. This is something that the North region benefits from in
light of this difficult situation.
As for the issue of electricity, the advancement of this sector and the
improvement of nutrition, the projects are going on the track set for them,
specifically with regard to the gas that will reach us from Egypt through Jordan
and from there to Syria and Lebanon, and which will provide about 4 hours of
additional feeding, pending the groveling. All the obstacles and the
implementation stages have been completed, in addition to what the Jordan
Electricit
What must happen now is the repair of the line, which will take about a month
and a half, so that by the end of February, the repair of the line should have
been completed in the first stage, allowing gas to reach Deir Ammar, and on the
other hand, the Egyptian side must have completed the work it is doing in order
to ensure that the contract will not have negative repercussions resulting from
“Caesar’s Law.”
We, for our part, will have obtained all the conditions of the World Bank
regarding financing. It is assumed that the bank's board of directors met with
the aim of finalizing the required approval in order to reach the additional
feeding.
The conversation with His Excellency the President also tackled the file of oil
and gas exploration, and the need to activate the matter with the French side,
as soon as possible to excavate in Block No. 9”.
Questions & Answers:
In response to a question about whether the French side links the return to oil
exploration to the demarcation of the southern maritime border, Fayyad replied:
"Yes, the French side links the matter to demarcation, and it considers that as
long as there is no security stability on the borders and there are risks from
the Israeli side, the French are not ready to start drilling the well, so there
is talk that must take place in this direction to obtain some kind of security
in order to start drilling”.
Asked about the reason for not issuing a report on the results of drilling in
Block No. 4, he replied: “The company issued a report that reached the Lebanese
oil authorities, and its summary is that the amount of gas in the well in which
it was drilled is not considered commercial. And what proves this is that the
type of gas reserve is in this well, which was being searched for, it was not
found according to expectations. In the current circumstances of investments in
the gas sector, in terms of the mechanism of supply and demand and its
implications for investments, the company confirmed that it doesn’t have a quick
desire to drill a second well in the next few coming months”.
Former Minister Azour:
President Aoun met the Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department
at the International Monetary Fund, former Minister Dr. Jihad Azour, and
discussed with him the economic situation, the stages of preparing an economic
recovery plan and the need to expedite its completion in preparation for
submitting it to the Fund.
Abbot Nimatullah Hashem
The President received the General President of the Lebanese Maronite
Congregation, Abbot Neamat Allah Al-Hashem, and the Secretary of the Lebanese
Maronite Congregation, Father Michel Abu Taqa, who congratulated him on the
holidays.
The delegation discussed with President Aoun the activities carried out by
monastic institutions to alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese in these
difficult circumstances.
Al-Hashem hoped that President Aoun's invitation to dialogue on important
national issues would receive the necessary response from the parties concerned
with this dialogue.
Congratulation Cables:
President Aoun received Christmas and New Year cables from Italian President,
Sergio Mattarella, Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio, Hungary President
Janus Ader, and Korean President Moon Jae-in. ----Presidency Press Office
Slow progress as Lebanon awaits IMF economic deal
AFP/December 29, 2021
Financial audit of central bank important to securing rescue package
Lebanon is mired in an economic crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the
worst in modern times, but officials are yet to strike an international bailout
deal. The financial meltdown began in 2019, and Lebanon defaulted on its debt
last year. Politicians have failed to enact significant reforms to rescue the
Mediterranean country, and many blame the ruling class and central bank policies
for the crash.What is delaying progress on talks with the International Monetary
Fund (IMF) to strike a deal and unlock crucial donor funds?
How bad is the crisis? -
Lebanon's GDP has plummeted from about $55 billion in 2018 to a projected $20.5
billion in 2021, a "brutal contraction" that the World Bank says "is usually
associated with conflicts or wars." Negotiations with the IMF opened in May
2020, but after two months they stalled amid arguments over the size of
financial losses. Talks resumed in September this year after the formation of a
new government headed by Prime Minister Najib Mikati. Lebanese officials have
yet to submit a plan for negotiation. But they have since agreed that financial
sector losses amount to around $69 billion, according to Deputy Prime Minister
Saade Chami, who is leading Lebanon's IMF negotiation team. The Lebanese pound
has lost more than 90 percent of its value in two years, and four out five
Lebanese are living under the UN's poverty threshold. Even though the official
value of the pound still stands at 1,507 to the dollar, the central bank has
adopted multiple exchange rates to try to combat its devaluation on the black
market. A unification of the different rates "would not be possible" without an
IMF deal and political consensus, central bank governor Riad Salameh said this
month, adding that $12-15 billion was needed to kickstart recovery.
- What's on the table? -
Lebanese officials met IMF delegates in early December to discuss "economic
policies that will be an integral part of the funding program that Lebanon could
receive," Chami told AFP. Restructuring Lebanon's banking sector — a
longstanding demand of donors — was among the topics discussed, he added.
"We need to prepare, in cooperation with the IMF, a comprehensive economic
recovery plan that will be sent to the (IMF's) funding board for approval,"
Chami said. The Lebanese government — which has not met since October due to a
political dispute over the fate of investigations into the August 2020 Beirut
port blast — must also sign off on a deal, Chami added. He said Lebanon could
see "concrete results" as soon as January, but warned that the government must
"show it is committed to reforms" before any agreement is reached. Lebanon's
prime minister said Tuesday that the first official meeting with the IMF would
take place on January 15. The visiting IMF delegation will review the progress
the government has made, and may return in early February to finalize a deal,
Mikati added.
To audit or not? -
A financial audit of the central bank is among the top demands of international
donors, and is widely viewed as a precondition for an IMF agreement. The Alvarez
& Marsal (A&M) firm launched an audit in September 2020, but was forced to pull
out two months later because the central bank failed to hand over necessary
data. In October this year, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said the company
would resume its work, and it is due to submit its report to the government next
month. Former vice governor of the central bank, Nasser Saidi, suggested the IMF
would want to examine the audit, but Chami said no demands had yet been made.
"We don't know if a forensic audit, or any audit, will be part of a potential
IMF program," Chami said. But according to Saidi, a potential IMF agreement will
ultimately bring in other donors, such as the World Bank and Gulf Arab states,
who may demand it as a precondition for support. "We need to understand what is
going on inside the central bank," Saidi said. "There is a total lack of
transparency."For Saidi, a key question is the actual value of central bank
reserves and the real value of financial sector losses.
"There seems to be no willingness to undertake a forensic audit," he said, but
added that the "bottom line is the IMF will be looking — before anything — for
promises of good governance."
Political ‘Wrestle’ Intensifies as ‘Berri Excludes Aoun’s
Officers’ from Promotion
Naharnet/December 29, 2021
Finance Minister Youssef Khalil, as per Speaker Nabih Berri’s directives, did
not sign the promotions of officers of the 1994 batch in the army, known as the
“Aoun session,” sources said. Official sources confirmed Wednesday to al-Liwaa
newspaper what MTV had reported on Tuesday about the minister signing all
promotions of the year 1994 in all other security agencies except those of the
army officers. The promotions were referred to the Premiership then to the
Presidency for approval. This shows “an intense political tug-of-war” between
President Michel Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Najib
Miqati that “has led to a complete collapse on all levels,” al-Liwaa newspaper
said, expecting “a prolonged governmental crisis.”Aoun will not sign the decrees
promoting colonels to brigadier generals, the sources said, in response to the
exclusion of the 1994 batch army officers “who are eligible based on seniority.”
Jumblat: Dialogue ‘Essential’ but What's More Important
is Cabinet Convening
Naharnet/December 29, 2021
Progressive Socialist Party chief Walid Jumblat lauded President Michel Aoun for
calling for a dialogue, in a statement he posted on social media. “I think that
President Aoun's call for dialogue is essential but the more important thing is
for Cabinet to convene,” Jumblat said. He added that the Cabinet must convene
“to start negotiations with the international institutions, before the
parliamentary elections.”
Political Silence after Aoun’s Speech: Will There be a
National Dialogue?
Naharnet/December 29, 2021
President Michel Aoun is waiting to receive feedback from political leaders on
his Monday speech before moving to the next step, ad-Diyar newpaper said
Wednesday. According to the newspaper, Aoun wanted to see the political forces’
reactions to take action accordingly and set a date for dialogue.
Aoun had called on Monday for an urgent national dialogue to agree on three
issues -- broad administrative and financial decentralization, a defense
strategy to protect Lebanon, and a financial and economic recovery plan that
would include the necessary reforms and a fair distribution of losses. Political
leaders avoided to directly respond to Aoun, ad-Diyar said. Meanwhile, informed
political sources told al-Joumhouria that “there will be no dialogue nor a
calling for Cabinet to convene soon,” unless a change occurs to the "inflexible"
positions towards many of the issues raised by Aoun.
FPM Bloc Hits Back at Miqati, Calls for Removing Salameh
Naharnet/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
The Free Patriotic Movement-led Strong Lebanon bloc has snapped back at Prime
Minister Najib Miqati over his defense of Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh,
stressing that the governor must be “immediately removed.”
In a statement issued after its weekly meeting under FPM chief MP Jebran Bassil,
the bloc called on the government to “convene and immediately remove the central
bank governor and name a replacement to him, after he became weighed down by
lawsuits against him in Lebanon and abroad.”
“No one goes to battle with an officer who is incompetent and accused with
treachery, seeing as the war cannot be won when the one leading the army is the
person who caused its collapse in the first place,” the bloc added, responding
to a proverb that Miqati has used.
The premier had said Tuesday that “during war you don’t change your generals,”
in response to a reporter’s question about the possibility of replacing Salameh.
Lebanon to Start Pipeline Renovation to Import Egyptian
Gas
Associated Press/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Energy minister Walid Fayad has launched two projects in the country's north to
facilitate the flow of natural gas from Egypt. The move aims to improve
electricity production and expand the country's tanks to increase oil reserves.
The revival of the Arab Gas Pipeline to deliver Egyptian gas to Lebanon comes as
the small country is reeling from a crippling electricity crisis. The pipeline
has been out of service in Lebanon since before Syria's 10-year conflict began
in 2011. Fayad said Egypt's Technical Gas Services will begin renovation work on
the pipeline inside Lebanon within days and work should be done in a little more
than two months. Egypt has agreed to supply Lebanon with natural gas to its
power plants through Jordan and Syria. Syrian experts have finished work inside
the war-torn country. The Syrian government is under U.S. and Western sanctions
for its role in the war, which has left nearly half a million killed and
disappeared and nearly half of the population displaced. Despite the sanctions,
the U.S. has supported the resumption of natural gas flow from Egypt to Lebanon
via Syria. Fayad told The Associated Press during a tour of an oil facility that
U.S. officials who have visited Lebanon said the contract to bring gas from
Egypt will not be targeted by sanctions because "no cash is going from any side
to Syria."He added that Egyptian officials are in contact with the Americans to
make sure that the contract does not violate the sanctions. Fayad said about 650
million cubic meters (22.95 billion cubic feet) of gas will be brought to
Lebanon through the pipeline annually to the Deir Ammar power station in the
north. He said the amount will lead to the production of 450 megawatts of
electricity adding three to four hours of electricity supplies a day. He said
the cost will be about 7.5 to 8 cents per kilowatt hour, "which is cheaper than
any production costs we have." Fayad launched the project to upgrade and build
new tanks to store oil products in the oil facility in this port city. In 2019,
Lebanon signed a deal with Russia's largest oil company, Rosneft, to upgrade and
operate storage installations in Tripoli. The deal made Rosneft manage storage
operations. Fayad said Roseneft will rehabilitate and build tanks that can fit
150,000 cubic meters (5.29 million cubic feet) of strategic storage and at a
later stage it can reach 250,000 cubic meters (8.82 million cubic feet).
Eventually it will fit 400,000 cubic meters (14.1 million cubic feet). He said
the works will begin with the renovation of three tanks and building three new
ones as well adding that the project is expected to take about 18 months.
Customs Directorate seizes Captagon pills en route to
Gulf
NNA/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
The Customs' General Directorate's anti-drugs branch announced Wednesday the
seizure of millions of Captagon pills set to be shipped from Beirut port to the
Gulf. The narcotics were hidden inside plastic fruits.
In its statement, the Customs' Directorate indicated that several individuals
were arrested and that a probe into the smuggling operation was launched.
Minister of Interior and Municipalities, Bassam Mawlawi, headed to the port and
inspected the drug-filled shipment.
Slow Progress as Lebanon Awaits IMF Economic Deal
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Lebanon is mired in an economic crisis branded by the World Bank as one of the
worst in modern times, but officials are yet to strike an international bailout
deal. The financial meltdown began in 2019, and Lebanon defaulted on its debt
last year. Politicians have failed to enact significant reforms to rescue the
Mediterranean country, and many blame the ruling class and central bank policies
for the crash. What is delaying progress on talks with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) to strike a deal and unlock crucial donor funds?
How bad is the crisis?
Lebanon's GDP has plummeted from about $55 billion in 2018 to a projected $20.5
billion in 2021, a "brutal contraction" that the World Bank says "is usually
associated with conflicts or wars". Negotiations with the IMF opened in May
2020, but after two months they stalled amid arguments over the size of
financial losses. Talks resumed in September this year after the formation of a
new government headed by Prime Minister Najib Miqati. Lebanese officials have
yet to submit a plan for negotiation. But they have since agreed that financial
sector losses amount to around $69 billion, according to Deputy Prime Minister
Saade Chami, who is leading Lebanon's IMF negotiation team. The Lebanese pound
has lost more than 90 percent of its value in two years, and four out five
Lebanese are living under the U.N.'s poverty threshold. Even though the official
value of the pound still stands at 1,507 to the dollar, the central bank has
adopted multiple exchange rates to try to combat its devaluation on the black
market. A unification of the different rates "would not be possible"
without an IMF deal and political consensus, central bank governor Riad Salameh
said this month, adding that $12-15 billion was needed to kick start recovery.
What's on the table? -
Lebanese officials met IMF delegates in early December to discuss "economic
policies that will be an integral part of the funding program that Lebanon could
receive," Chami told AFP. Restructuring Lebanon's banking sector -- a
longstanding demand of donors -- was among the topics discussed, he added.
"We need to prepare, in cooperation with the IMF, a comprehensive economic
recovery plan that will be sent to the (IMF's) funding board for approval,"
Chami said. The Lebanese government -- which has not met since October due to a
political dispute over the fate of investigations into the August 2020 Beirut
port blast -- must also sign off on a deal, Chami added. He said Lebanon could
see "concrete results" as soon as January, but warned that the government must
"show it is committed to reforms" before any agreement is reached. Miqati said
Tuesday that the first official meeting with the IMF would take place on January
15. The visiting IMF delegation will review the progress the government has
made, and may return in early February to finalize a deal, Miqati added.
To audit or not? -
A financial audit of the central bank is among the top demands of international
donors, and is widely viewed as a precondition for an IMF agreement.
The Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) firm launched an audit in September 2020, but was
forced to pull out two months later because the central bank failed to hand over
necessary data. In October this year, Lebanese President Michel Aoun said the
company would resume its work, and it is due to submit its report to the
government next month. Former vice governor of the central bank, Nasser Saidi,
suggested the IMF would want to examine the audit, but Chami said no demands had
yet been made. "We don't know if a forensic audit, or any audit, will be part of
a potential IMF program," Chami said.
A potential IMF agreement will ultimately bring in other donors, such as the
World Bank and Gulf Arab states, who may demand it as a precondition for
support. "We need to understand what is going on inside the central bank," Saidi
said. "There is a total lack of transparency."For Saidi, a key question is the
actual value of central bank reserves and the real value of financial sector
losses. "There seems to be no willingness to undertake a forensic audit," he
said, but added that the "bottom line is the IMF will be looking –- before
anything -- for promises of good governance."
In Exodus From Lebanon, the Well-off Find New Home in
Cyprus
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Many well-off Lebanese who escaped their country´s economic tailspin for a new
life in the nearby island nation of Cyprus say the transition has been a
whirlwind of emotions. They are grateful they did not have to turn to human
smugglers and embark on risky Mediterranean crossings to reach European shores.
But they also feel guilty for leaving family and friends behind to struggle with
Lebanon´s unprecedented crises - a failing economy, political uncertainty and
social upheaval. The feelings are intense for Celine Elbacha, an architect who
moved with her family of four to the Mediterranean island nation in August 2020,
and Nadine Kalache Maalouf, who arrived with her husband and two children four
months ago. They are among more than 12,000 Lebanese who have left their
homeland in the past two years for Cyprus - less than a 50-minute flight from
Beirut - enrolling their kids in schools, setting up businesses and snapping up
apartments on the island.
"We were fortunate to be able to come," Maalouf said, The Associated Press
reported. "We´re doing our best here as a Lebanese community to help ... our
families, our friends back home. So it´s not like we just moved and we turned
our backs and we´re not looking back."
Thousands of Lebanese, including teachers, doctors and nurses have left the
country amid a devastating economic crisis that has thrown two thirds of the
country´s population into poverty since October 2019. That brain drain
accelerated after the massive explosion at Beirut´s port last year, when a
stockpile of improperly stored ammonium nitrates detonated, killing at least 216
people and destroying several residential areas.)
The exodus is telling about the state of Lebanon, where not only the poor are
seeking a way out, but also a relatively well-off middle class that has lost
faith in the country turning itself around. For those who can afford it, Cyprus,
a member of the European Union, is an attractive option for its proximity and
the facilities it offers - including residency for a certain level of investment
in real estate and businesses. As Lebanese banks clamped down on deposits, many
sought to open bank accounts in Cyprus or buy apartments as a way to free up
their money.
The island has a history of taking in Lebanese, who first came in the 1980s, at
the height of Lebanon's 15-year-civil war, and again in 2006, when Cyprus served
as a base for evacuating civilians during the month-long war between Israel and
Lebanon´s militant Hezbollah group.
Maalouf, 43, who made the move to Cyprus with her husband and two kids, said she
was pleasantly surprised by how "easy" the relocation process was. She hasn´t
found work yet but has connected with Cyprus´ close-knit Lebanese community. "We
were scared about this step," she said, but Cypriot immigration authorities
"made that very smooth and very easy."
Cyprus' Interior Ministry spokesman Loizos Michael confirmed to The AP that the
government has "simplified procedures" for Lebanese nationals who wish to
immigrate lawfully, "as part of humanitarian assistance" to Lebanon.
Additionally, incentives are offered to Lebanese businessmen who wish to
transfer their businesses to Cyprus, Michael said, without elaborating. Maalouf
said her primary motivation was to shield her children from Lebanon´s dire
economic situation - runaway inflation has seen the Lebanese pound lose more
than 90% of its value in less than two years - and provide them with a chance
for a better future. "It´s scary when you´re a parent, you´re scared and you
say, OK, I need to save my kids," said Maalouf. The transition was easier for
47-year-old Elbacha and her family. They had bought a vacation home in Cyprus
years ago in the town of Paralimni on the island's east coast and felt they
already had a footing here. Her elder daughter, Stephanie, has been studying at
a university in Paris for two years now. Her younger daughter, 17-year-old
Morgane, was fortunate to get into Cyprus´ only French-speaking school in
Nicosia, the capital. Elbacha and her husband, also an architect, have set up a
company in Cyprus and are both working. They have a sense of obligation to the
country that has welcomed them, she said. "We want to be feeling like we are not
illegal in the country," she said. Cyprus has helped them "in every sense, and
it´s like we have to return this." Elbacha is lucky, she says, especially when
she remembers how powerless many Lebanese feel in the face of constant feuds and
bickering among the political elite. Her home in Beirut sustained minor damage
in the Aug. 4, 2020 port explosion, mostly broken glass. None of the four of
them were hurt but some of her friends and relatives fared much worse.
Later that month, the family moved to Cyprus. The first five months here, she
remembers feelings of guilt, like she was "betraying my country," she said.
Maalouf, who also ended up with her family in Paralimni, has little faith things
will turn around in Lebanon anytime soon, despite upcoming general elections.
"I've been hearing this since I was a teenager. Things will get better. We´ll
see and things never get better," she said. For its proximity to Lebanon, Cyprus
is in many ways ideal for both Maalouf and Elbacha. They can easily visit family
and friends back in Beirut. "The people of Cyprus are very warm and welcoming,"
said Maalouf. "We don´t feel like strangers here."
Hezbollah deploys air defense systems in Syria’s
Qalamoun mountains
Anna Ahronheim/Jerusalem Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
While the IDF’s aerial superiority has worsened, the military believes that it
still has the ability to carry out operations over Lebanon and Syria. Hezbollah
is reportedly deploying air defense systems in Syria, where it would be able to
defend against Israeli airstrikes there as well as in Lebanon.
According to the Alma Research Center, the group is deploying the systems to the
Qalmoun Mountains region northwest of Damascus, which borders Lebanon’s Bekaa
Valley, home to Hezbollah’s logistical and operational rear base. The group is
believed to have the SA8 low-altitude, short-range tactical surface-to-air
missile system, SA17, and SA22 man-portable air defense missile systems in its
arsenal in order to defend against Israeli airstrikes. Hezbollah has fired on
Israeli platforms using its air defenses, most recently in February of last
year, when an Israeli drone was fired on by antiaircraft fire during routine
operations over Lebanese territory. It was not hit and continued on its mission.
In October 2019 an SA8 surface-to-air missile was fired at an Israeli drone but
also missed its mark. The report comes as military officials warned that the
Israel Air Force’s freedom of operation in Lebanese skies has been compromised
over the past year after air defense systems were deployed in the area. In
addition to deploying the batteries to Syria, Maj. (ret.) Tal Beeri, head of the
research department at the Alma Center, told The Jerusalem Post that Hezbollah
has also deployed SA8 batteries in south Lebanon.
According to Beeri, these systems can “theoretically” pose a threat to Israeli
jets operating over Lebanon.
In addition to its independent air-defense system, Beeri said, it is possible
that Hezbollah operatives have trained on Iran’s Bavar-373. The Iranian system
is based on Russia’s SA-300 air-defense system that can supposedly
simultaneously engage up to six targets up to 250 km. away with 12 missiles.
Iran says the system can target jet bombers and fighters, stealth aircraft and
drones, as well as cruise and ballistic missiles. “It is possible that Hezbollah
has trained on it, and, in all probability, we estimate that there have been
attempts to transfer it to the group,” Beeri said.In October, Israel’s defense
establishment said that it had identified growing Iranian efforts to improve its
air defenses in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and other locations, in an attempt to
disrupt Israel’s “war between the wars” campaign and bring down an Israeli
aircraft. The Iranian systems have helped Syria improve its capabilities,
shorten its response time to attacks and destroy more munitions fired by the
Jewish state. While the IDF’s aerial superiority has worsened, the military
believes that it still has the ability to carry out operations over Lebanon and
Syria despite the threat posed by Iranian and Hezbollah air-defense systems.
Tensions with both Lebanon and Syria remain high, with 31 rockets being fired
from Lebanon (by both Palestinian operatives and Hezbollah) and two long-range
rockets fired from Syria over the past year. In response, the IDF fired
munitions from fighter planes and some 200 artillery shells. Hezbollah has also
violated Israeli airspace, sending 74 drones into Israel over the past year,
down from 94 drones in 2020.
Iran grapples with Hume’s paradox in Iraq and Lebanon
Elie Abouaoun/The Arab Weekly/December 29/2021
Two of Iran’s vassal countries, Lebanon and Iraq, are witnessing acute political
crises that could undermine Iran’s political gains of the last two decades. The
hardship confronting Tehran in these two countries could be an opportunity to
contain its expansion.
David Hume distinguishes in his 1740 essay “A Treatise of Human Nature” between
impressions and ideas. Impressions embrace, according to Hume, "all our more
lively perceptions, when we hear, or see, or feel, or love, or hate, or desire,
or will." Thus, both the colour red and the feeling of anger are considered
impressions. Ideas are what arise when we reflect upon our impressions, so the
memory of seeing the colour red or a thought about anger are considered ideas.
So far, Iran has excelled at playing around with impressions to generate ideas
that suit its political project in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)
region. However, recent months have shown that Iran and its assets, in both
Lebanon and Iraq, are having to deal with a different reality. In a way, they
have become victims of their own success.
In 2016, Hezbollah consolidated its grip on Lebanon’s executive power by
imposing its ally Michel Aoun as the president of the republic and Saad Hariri
as a prime minister. In 2017, the improvised arrest of Hariri in Riyadh was used
by Hezbollah to present itself as the premier’s saviour. Abandoned by his
regional and local allies, Hariri was ultimately released from custody thanks to
a French initiative with the blessing of Aoun and Hezbollah. With an overt ally
as president of the republic, a covert sympathiser as a prime minister, along
with considerable military might and a parliamentary majority, it was hard for
Hezbollah to shield itself from responsibility for the financial calamity that
was in the making after 2016. That calamity arrived in 2019 with the collapse of
the banking system and the general deterioration of the already poor basic
services. The Beirut port explosion in August 2020 solidified the public
perception that Hezbollah was in large measure responsible for what Lebanon was
going through, including the endemic corruption that was partly behind one of
the most powerful artificial non-nuclear explosions in history. It was and still
is very hard to convince any Lebanese, including those within the party’s own
constituency, that Hezbollah's robust intelligence network did not know of the
presence and associated threats of such a large quantity of explosives in a
strategic site such as the main port of Lebanon.
So despite all Hezbollah’s efforts to create a false perception that it did not
control the executive power, for instance by simply appointing a couple of
party-affiliated ministers in governments of 30 ministers, its rise to become
the main power broker in Lebanon made it a major part of the problem in the eyes
of the majority of the Lebanese. Obviously, its persistent attempts to obstruct
the investigation into the port blast, which have included threatening the
investigating judge and paralysing the government at a time when Lebanon needs
every minute to negotiate a bailout plan with the IMF, has further damaged its
public image. One can argue that Iraq has witnessed a similar path overall, with
significantly different nuances. First and foremost, Iran had to deal with a
multitude of proxies in Iraq, unlike in Lebanon where they were able to silence,
by fair means or foul, all Shia rivals for Hezbollah’s leadership.
Lebanese protesters hold a placard and a portrait of Hezbollah leader Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah with Arabic words read: "He knew" (about the thousand tons of
ammonium nitrates that exploded last year at Beirut seaport), during a protest
against Hezbollah in Beirut, Lebanon, October 6, 2021. (AP)
Lebanese protesters hold a placard and a portrait of Hezbollah leader Sayyed
Hassan Nasrallah with Arabic words read: "He knew" (about the thousand tons of
ammonium nitrates that exploded last year at Beirut seaport), during a protest
against Hezbollah in
As Iran’s proxies emerged victorious from the battle against ISIS in 2017, they
were given enough room to infiltrate most of the government’s institutions
including the Iraqi armed forces and to establish themselves as one of the main
economic actors at the provincial level.
Most of these groups resorted to assassinations, extortion and criminal
activities to boost their power and income. As in Lebanon, Iran’s assets in Iraq
were also able to block and change any governmental decision with which they
disagreed, even to the point of besieging the residence of the prime minister
when some of their members were arrested by the security forces. In just a few
years, these groups became the go-to brokers for getting a public works
contract, being hired as a civil servant, challenging a judicial decision,
getting a promotion or just evading accountability when accused of incompetence
or corruption.
The 2021 elections showed growing resentment, especially among Shias in Iraq, at
the behaviour of these groups, which led to a decrease in their popular support
compared to their 2018 electoral performance. This translated into a significant
drop in the number of parliamentary seats they won.
In both countries, Iran is far from being strategically threatened. It still
withholds too many cards. However, the resentment against Iran’s proxies in
Lebanon and Iraq is now unprecedented. Tehran’s level of support within the
Lebanese and Iraqi Shia constituencies is at its lowest during the last two
decades. By taking Iraq and Lebanon through a path of para-state military
groups, of hollow and ineffective institutions as well as indirect but firm
control through its allies, the “ideas” (referred in Hume’s theory) generated by
the perception they wanted to create are placing them in a predicament, which
they have created themselves.
As is commonly understood, Iran’s support in both Iraq and Lebanon is organic,
not external, especially among Shias. Therefore, most of the theories about
containing Iran in both countries were, quite rightly, built around the idea of
reversing those factors and the processes by which Iran was able to suborn Shias
in each country. There is no better timing to start this endeavour than now,
given the growing negative public perception of Iran in Iraq and Lebanon. Such
an endeavour would start by rebuilding a pool of local political groups that has
the legitimacy to challenge, without violence, Iran’s regional behaviour and
that of its proxies. Coupled with a heavy investment in soft power tools by the
West along with maintaining deterrence and sanctions, the time is now ripe to
start pushing back on what Iran has been doing in both countries for decades.
Lebanese cling to slender hopes of a better 2022
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/ Arab News/December 29, 2021
Another year is ending in Lebanon with little sign of a breakthrough. The
council of ministers cannot meet because of a block by Hezbollah and its ally
the Amal Movement.
All the indications are that the situation will go downhill from here. Elections
due in May are unlikely to bring any drastic change. The only hope comes from
presidential elections due later in 2022, but in the meantime the Lebanese will
have to endure a difficult year.
During the holiday season the US dollar exchange stabilized at 26,000 to 27,000
Lebanese pounds. However, the rate was steady because many expatriates returned
during the Christmas break to spend time with their families, bringing hard
currency with them.
This small bout of economic activity is likely to dissipate in the new year, and
the exchange rate against the dollar is likely to continue to increase.
No one really knows how much Lebanon has in its central bank reserves. The
governor has been evasive on the issue, and with no hard currency reserves, the
pound is likely to continue to fall.
According to economist and financial expert Samir Nasr: “Without a comprehensive
plan that includes fiscal reforms, bank restructuring, administrative measures,
social support mechanisms and a boost for the private sector along with public
investments, there are no positive prospects. Partial measures and incomplete
reforms don’t work and do not build confidence. If the government agrees to an
IMF program, this will be a good sign.”
However, there is no agreement among the political class in order to start
negotiations with the IMF.
During his visit to Lebanon, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said
politicians had no right to remain divided and paralyze the country. The
Hezbollah alliance with President Michel Aoun, making it the de facto force
ruling the country, is in a precarious state. Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri,
an ally of Hezbollah, has a toxic relationship with Aoun.
While the political class holds on to power, they cannot even agree among
themselves, resulting in a stalemate that is likely to continue. Since they
control the “state,” they control any services that can be provided to the
Lebanese people. This means each sectarian leader can control those of their own
denomination — even more so now, with people in dire need.
The international community could always introduce sanctions, but the political
class is unlikely to flinch. Gebran Bassil, the president’s son-in-law, seems
unperturbed by the curbs and is still hopeful of becoming president in 2022.
The US administration and the international community are keen to provide
humanitarian aid and prevent a total collapse, but this is not a solution.
Elections due in May are unlikely to uproot the current political class, which
has decades of experience and a strong electoral machine.
However, the vote may change the parliamentary arithmetic and take power from
Hezbollah, as the Christian electorate moves toward Aoun’s rival, the Lebanese
Forces party led by Samir Geagea. This will weaken Hezbollah, which will lose
its Christian “cover” and parliamentary majority.
Aoun’s speech on Monday in which he promised to “turn the table” brought nothing
new. It was a hopeless and failed attempt to recover some of the popularity he
lost because of his alliance with Hezbollah. Although the president criticized
those “blocking “the government, he did not dare mention Hezbollah.
Despite the grim outlook for Lebanon, activists have a glimmer of hope. Hayat
Arslan, a seasoned political activist, told me there were three pillars on which
the Lebanese could base their optimism: High voter registration by expatriates
(who are not subject to the same pressures as Lebanese at home), the resilience
of the judiciary, and the reliability of the army.
On voter registration, the constitutional council has so far refused the request
by the Free Patriotic Movement to restrict voting by expats, which could be
significant in six seats. A total of 225,000 expats are registered, of whom
27,000 are in the district represented by Gebran Bassil — Hezbollah’s main ally.
Those votes will make a difference, and definitely have the power to change the
parliamentary majority.
Also, the head of the judiciary has resisted pressure to fire judge Tarek Bitar
from his role in charge of the investigation into the 2020 Beirut port
explosion.
Meanwhile the armed forces have proved to be a coherent, cohesive, professional
and patriotic institution. This was seen in the violent clashes in the Tayouneh
neighborhood of Beirut in October when the army stepped in against Hezbollah
militants.
Despite the breakthrough that civil society may score in May, there is little
hope of a change in the system. However, there is a chance for change toward the
end of 2022. If enough pressure is exerted on the political class, coupled with
a change in the parliament, the next presidential elections may bring in a
personality committed to reforms, and with enough courage to confront the
political class and deny them their privileges. This might be the start of a
long process leading to a reformed Lebanon.
With the Lebanese facing worsening poverty, there is little hope for change in
the near future. However, it is increasingly clear to the Lebanese and the
international community that the current political system is the source of all
the country’s ailments and that unless this changes there will be no
resurrection for the country.
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on
lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace
Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II. She is
also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and
International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
Lebanon: Do Not Let the Palestinians Destroy Our Country
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 29/2021
A growing number of people in Lebanon fear that... Hamas could drag Lebanon into
another war with Israel -- as Lebanon's Hezbollah terrorist militia, backed by
Iran, has done for the past three decades.
The fears of the Lebanese are well-grounded in reality.
Since 2007, Hamas has fired thousands of rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip,
triggering military confrontations that have wreaked havoc on the lives of
Palestinians living there.
The Lebanese are making it clear that they do not want Hamas -- or any other
Palestinian group -- to drag them into another war with Israel. They are saying
that they are done with decades-long Palestinian efforts to transform Lebanon
into a war zone.
With all this clarity on the part of the Lebanese, it remains to be seen whether
international bodies will themselves speak out to prevent another catastrophe in
Lebanon carried out by a Palestinian terrorist group.
A growing number of people in Lebanon are concerned that Hamas could drag
Lebanon into another war with Israel. The fears of the Lebanese are
well-grounded in reality. On December 10, a Hamas warehouse filled with
munitions exploded in the Burj Shemali Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon.
Pictured: The shattered windows and blackened walls of a mosque damaged by the
explosion in the Burj Shemali camp.
It appears that the Palestinians are determined to continue their fight against
Israel until the last Arab. For decades, the Palestinians have used Israel's
neighboring countries, especially Jordan and Lebanon, as launching pads for
various types of attacks against Israel.
In the 1960s, '70s and '80s several Palestinian groups, including Fatah and the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), set up military training
bases in Jordan and Lebanon to launch attacks on Israel.
The Jordanians and Lebanese ended up paying a heavy price for hosting these
groups and allowing them to use their territory to plan and carry out attacks
against Israel.
In 1970, the Jordanians, after severe clashes, expelled the Palestine Liberation
Organization (PLO) from the kingdom. The violent confrontations, referred to as
Black September, came after the PLO set up military bases and actually created a
state within state in the kingdom.
When the PFLP then hijacked three civilian aircraft in September of 1970, and
forced them to land in the Jordanian town of Zarqa, where they took foreign
nationals as hostages and later blew up the planes in front of the international
press, the late King Hussein of Jordan ordered his army to expel the PLO from
the kingdom.
They then moved to Beirut, where the PLO leaders and their armed forces also
brought disaster to the Lebanese people, especially during the Lebanon Civil
War.
In 1982, when the Israeli army invaded southern Lebanon to destroy the PLO's
military infrastructure and stop terrorist attacks against Israel, the PLO was
also forced out of Lebanon.
"Large areas of the once beautiful and prosperous city [Beirut] have been
reduced to rubble by seven years of unrest and civil war sparked by Mr. Arafat's
presence," a BBC dispatch reported.
A growing number of people in Lebanon fear that history is about to repeat
itself. They are concerned that Hamas could drag Lebanon into another war with
Israel -- as the Hezbollah terrorist militia, backed by Iran, has done for the
past three decades.
Their fear comes against a backdrop of reports that the Iranian-backed
Palestinian Hamas group has set up a new military unit in Lebanon for launching
attacks against Israel. According to the reports, the unit launched its first
rocket attack on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war in May 2021.
Hamas's secret build-up of forces in Lebanon has grown over the years to have
hundreds of operatives working for its "Construction Bureau," responsible for
building and developing military capabilities on Israel's northern border,
according to a report by the ALMA Research Center, dedicated to researching the
security challenges on Israel's northern border.
The "Construction Bureau," the report reveals, operates several departments: the
manufacturing department, military intelligence, instruction and training,
communications, finance, planning, logistics, security, and foreign relations.
The "Construction Bureau" also has two units with hundreds of operatives in
Lebanon. The units engage in recruiting operatives, conducting training, and
special courses (snipers, anti-tanks, attack drones, etc.). The units also
develop and manufacture weapons (rockets, attack drones, miniature submarines),
establish operation squads, and prepare operational programs.
On December 10, the fears of the Lebanese proved justified when a Hamas
warehouse filled with munitions exploded in the Burj Shemali Palestinian refugee
camp in Lebanon.
The state-run National News Agency reported an unspecified number of deaths. The
explosion was reportedly caused by a fire that broke out near a mosque and later
spread to an arms depot belonging to Hamas. The explosion, according to some
reports, injured dozens of people and killed a senior member of Hamas, Hamza
Chahine, responsible for recruitment for the local branch of the group.
Several Lebanese expressed deep concern over the explosion and warned that the
presence of armed Palestinian groups in Lebanon would have devastating
repercussions on the country. Prominent Lebanese journalist Rafik Khoury wrote:
"Palestinian weapons no longer have a role in Lebanon in the sense that they did
in the 1960s of the last century: the practice of armed struggle to liberate
Palestine from southern Lebanon. It was a role that led to the devastating
Lebanon [civil war] and the bragging of Yasser Arafat that he 'ruled' Lebanon.
It also led to the Israeli invasion and the expulsion of the PLO and its leaders
to Tunisia and other capitals under American and French supervision."
Khoury pointed out that the Palestinians used to say that "the road to Palestine
passes through all Arab capitals and overthrowing their regimes."
It is no secret, he said, that Hamas is working to inherit the role of the PLO
in Lebanon as a dominant armed group. "After more than half a century, Hamas is
repeating the experience of Fatah [the largest PLO faction] and the mistakes and
the disasters in Jordan and Lebanon," Khoury added.
Lebanese international relations expert Khaled El-Ezzi said that Hamas has a
powerful presence in Palestinian refugee camps in southern Lebanon, which is
under the control of Hezbollah.
El-Ezzi noted that Hamas is "directly affiliated" with Iran and that its leaders
have strong relations with Hezbollah.
Senior Hamas officials, he revealed, have offices and residences in the southern
suburb of Beirut, known to be a Hezbollah stronghold. According to El-Ezzi:
"The explosion [at the Hamas warehouse] constituted a flagrant violation of
Resolution 1701 issued by the United Nations after the 2006 war because the
refugee camp is located under the authority of UNIFIL [United Nations Interim
Force in Lebanon], and the storage of weapons in the camp means that there is a
Lebanese party that helped Hamas to do so."
The head of the Lebanese Change Movement party, Elie Mahfoud, said that Hamas
has gunmen in several refugee camps in Lebanon and they "receive orders from
Hezbollah to carry out acts of sabotage outside the camps."
Lebanese writer Khairallah Khairallah said that the explosion at the weapons
depot shows that Hamas has taken it upon itself "to distort the image of the
Palestinian people."
The explosion, Khairallah pointed out, occurred hours after the visit of Israeli
Foreign Minister Yair Lapid to Cairo, where he discussed with senior Egyptian
officials the issue of the reconstruction of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
"Egypt is playing a positive and commendable role of a humanitarian nature in
sparing the people of Gaza more suffering, misery, and destruction," Khairallah
wrote.
"Wherever Hamas is found, there is devastation. Why does it store weapons and
explosives in Lebanon?... It is surprising that Hamas insists on storing weapons
and ammunition in southern Lebanon, taking advantage of the absence of the
Lebanese state in the Palestinian camps.... But what can one do with a movement
belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood that does not care about what happened to
the Palestinians in Gaza... Hamas eliminated the Palestinian national project.
It practically eliminated the independent Palestinian decision and turned Gaza
into an Iranian missile base... Hamas wants to rewrite the history of Palestine
and link it to the Iranian interest. It does this through its practices in
Lebanon. It even ignores the fact that Lebanon is in a state of a bankruptcy and
suffering from the chaos of weapons."
Lebanese newspaper editor Bechara Charbel said that the Palestinians have lost a
moral argument by insisting on their own armed presence in the camps and not
entrusting their security to the Lebanese army.
According to Bechara, Hamas's military presence in Lebanon does not serve to
support Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram's recent decision to allow Palestinians to
work in professions that were prohibited to them. The decision relaxes
restrictions on Palestinians, enabling them to work in trade union-regulated
professions including law, engineering, and medicine. These professions were
limited to Lebanese nationals only.
"Those sympathetic to the cause of the Palestinians and their humanitarian
situation will not be convinced of the necessity of facilitating their lives in
Lebanon," he emphasized.
"It is unfortunate that Hamas is repeating the mistakes of the PLO in using
Lebanon as a platform. It is not acceptable for Hamas to be active militarily in
Lebanon, training elements and storing ammunition, considering itself above any
consideration of the Lebanese state, just because it is an ally of Hezbollah and
part of the Iranian axis. The Palestinian organizations did not learn from the
bitter lessons they received, whether during their disastrous involvement in the
Lebanon wars, or while the refugee camps endured the hardship of the siege
imposed on them by the Syrian regime."
The fears of the Lebanese are well-grounded in reality.
Since 2007, Hamas has fired thousands of rockets at Israel from the Gaza Strip,
triggering military confrontations that have wreaked havoc on the lives of
Palestinians living there.
The Lebanese are making it clear that they do not want Hamas -- or any other
Palestinian group -- to drag them into another war with Israel. They are saying
that they are done with decades-long Palestinian efforts to transform Lebanon
into a war zone.
With all this clarity on the part of the Lebanese, it remains to be seen whether
international bodies will themselves speak out to prevent another catastrophe in
Lebanon carried out by a Palestinian terrorist group.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
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part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 29-30/2021
Iran President Set to Visit Russia Early in New Year
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi is preparing to visit Russia following an
invitation from his counterpart Vladimir Putin, an Iranian government spokesman
said Tuesday, a first since 2017. Putin has invited Raisi to Moscow early next
year "in the framework of strategic interaction between Iran and Russia", AFP
reported Ali Bahadori Jahromi as saying. "I hope that the president of Iran will
accept my invitation and visit Russia early next year," Putin had told a joint
news conference with the Greek premier earlier this month, according to the
Kremlin's official website. Moscow and Tehran have strong political, economic
and military ties, shared interests in Afghanistan, and are key allies of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad in his country's decade-long civil war. Russia is also
one of the parties to the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers that
gave Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program.
Bahadori Jahromi said the visit would address "bilateral, regional and national
cooperation" and in particular "economic and commercial" cooperation. Moscow and
has been taking part in negotiations to revive the nuclear deal after then
president Donald Trump withdrew the US in 2018 and began reimposing sanctions,
prompting Iran to wind back some of its commitments. In September, Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said sanctions reimposed on Iran "should be
lifted as part of the restoration of the nuclear deal", adding that Iran "should
not suffer from unilateral US measures".
Sadr meets pro-Iran rivals to negotiate government
formation
The Arab Weekly/December 29/2021
The winner of Iraq's October parliamentary election, Shia Muslim cleric Moqtada
al-Sadr, met Wednesday with rivals from the pro-Iran Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular
Mobilisation Forces- PMF) paramilitary alliance ahead of the opening of
parliament. The October 10 vote was rejected by the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance,
the political arm of the pro-Tehran PMF, but Iraq's top court on Monday
dismissed their allegations of voter fraud and ratified the results. The court's
decision paves the way for parliament to meet and elect a president, who will
then name a prime minister tasked with forming a new government. In
multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has
involved complex negotiations ever since the 2003 US-led invasion toppled long
time ruler Saddam Hussein. On Wednesday, leaders including Fatah Alliance chief
Hadi al-Ameri, senior Hashed official Faleh al-Fayyad and Qais al-Khazali, head
of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq force, a key component of the Hashed, were hosted by
Sadr at his home in the Iraqi shrine city of Najaf, according to state news
agency INA. The leaders discussed "the political situation" and the "formation
of the next government", INA reported. Sadr, a political populist and former
anti-US militia leader who opposes all foreign interference, had already met
leaders from pro-Iran parties earlier this month. Iraq is trying to recover from
years of war and extremist violence but remains hobbled by political divisions,
corruption and poverty. Parties from Iraq's Shia majority have previously struck
compromise deals to work together, but Sadr is insistent he wants to forge a
coalition capable of forming a parliamentary majority outside the quota system.
Sadr's movement won more than a fifth of the seats, 73 out of the assembly's
total of 329. The Fatah Alliance took 17 seats, sharply down from its 48 seats
in the past assembly and PMF leaders rejected the result. Sadr, a self-styled
advocate against all forms of corruption, has repeatedly said that the next
prime minister will be chosen by his movement. The scion of an influential
clerical family who led a militia against the US-led occupation of Iraq, Sadr
has distinguished himself from other Shia factions by seeking to distance
himself from both Iranian and US influences.
Iraq Vote Victor Sadr Meets Pro-Iran Rivals
Agence France Presse/December 29/2021
The winner of Iraq's October parliamentary election, Shiite Muslim cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, met Wednesday with rivals from the pro-Iran Hashed al-Shaabi
former paramilitary alliance ahead of the opening of parliament. The October 10
vote was rejected by the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political arm of the
pro-Tehran Hashed, but Iraq's top court on Monday dismissed their allegations of
voter fraud and ratified the results. It paves the way for parliament to meet
and elect a president -- who will then name a prime minister tasked with forming
a new government. In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of
governments has involved complex negotiations ever since the 2003 U.S.-led
invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein. On Wednesday, leaders including Fatah
Alliance chief Hadi al-Ameri, senior Hashed official Faleh al-Fayyad and Qais
al-Khazali, head of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq force -- a key component of the Hashed
-- were hosted by Sadr at his home in the Iraqi shrine city of Najaf, according
to state news agency INA. The leaders discussed "the political situation" and
the "formation of the next government", INA reported. Sadr, a political maverick
and former anti-U.S. militia leader who opposes all foreign interference, had
already met leaders from pro-Iran parties earlier this month. Iraq is trying to
recover from years of war and jihadist violence but remains hobbled by political
divisions, corruption and poverty. Parties from Iraq's Shiite majority have
previously struck compromise deals to work together, but Sadr is insistent he
wants to forge a coalition capable of forming a parliamentary majority. Sadr's
movement won more than a fifth of the seats, 73 out of the assembly's total of
329. The Fatah Alliance took 17 seats, sharply down from its 48 seats in the
past assembly, and Hashed leaders rejected the result. Sadr, a self-styled
defender against all forms of corruption, has repeatedly said that the next
prime minister will be chosen by his movement. The scion of an influential
clerical family who led a militia against the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq, Sadr
has distinguished himself from other Shiite factions by seeking to distance
himself from both Iranian and U.S. influences.
Israel Strikes Gaza after Gunfire Wounds Civilian
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Israel shelled suspected Hamas military sites in Gaza Wednesday after gunfire
from the Palestinian enclave wounded an Israeli civilian, security sources in
Gaza said. Two Palestinian farmers were wounded by the Israeli artillery fire
which targeted four suspected sites used by Hamas military wing the al-Qassam
Brigades, the sources told AFP. The incident coincides with the final day of
military drills by armed factions in Gaza. According to a statement from the
Israeli military, tanks targeted a number of Hamas military posts in northern
Gaza, after an Israeli civilian was wounded by gunfire near the barrier
separating the enclave from Israel. Conflict erupted between Israel and Hamas
for 11 days in May, marking the fourth time major hostilities had broken out
since the Islamist group seized power in Gaza in 2007. Since a fragile ceasefire
came into force in late May, only five rockets or mortar rounds have been fired
from Gaza towards Israeli territory, the military said in its annual report.
Israel Approves Measures for Palestinians after Leaders
Meet
Associated Press/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Israel's defense minister approved a raft of measures aimed at improving
relations with the Palestinians on Wednesday following a rare meeting with
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Israel. Defense Minister Benny Gantz met
with Abbas at his private residence in a Tel Aviv suburb late Tuesday night. It
was the first time Abbas met an Israeli official inside Israel since 2010. The
two discussed security coordination between Israel and Abbas' Palestinian
Authority, which administers pockets of the occupied West Bank. Gantz's office
said he approved "confidence-building measures" including the transfer of tax
payments to the Palestinian Authority, the authorization of hundreds of permits
for Palestinian merchants and VIPs, and approving residency status for thousands
of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Israel collects hundreds of
millions of dollars worth of taxes on behalf of the PA as part of the interim
peace agreements signed in the 1990s. The tax transfers are a key source of
funding for the cash-strapped Palestinians, but Israel has withheld funds over
the PA's payment of stipends to thousands of families that have had relatives
killed, wounded or imprisoned in the conflict. Israel says the payments
incentivize terrorism, while the Palestinians say they provide crucial support
to needy families. Israel approved residency for some 9,500 Palestinians. Israel
controls the Palestinian population registry, and over the years its policies
have left an estimated tens of thousands of Palestinians without legal status,
severely limiting their freedom of movement, even within the occupied
territories. Israel granted legal status to some 4,000 Palestinians in October.
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett is opposed to Palestinian statehood. His
government has shown no interest in reviving peace talks, which broke down more
than a decade ago, but has said it wants to reduce tensions by improving living
conditions in the West Bank. Recent months have seen a surge in violence by
Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank and Palestinian attacks
on Israelis in east Jerusalem and the West Bank. Gantz's meeting with Abbas —
the second in the six months since Bennett's coalition government took office —
drew vocal criticism from Israeli opposition lawmakers, including former prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party, the largest in parliament. The
Palestinians seek an independent state that includes all of the West Bank, east
Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip, areas Israel captured in the 1967 Mideast war.
Hamas seized Gaza from Abbas' forces in 2007, a year after the Islamic militant
group won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections. Gaza has been under an
Israeli-Egyptian blockade since then.
French-Syrian arrested for alleged delivery
of chemical weapon parts to Syria
Benjamin Weithal/Jerusalem Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
The AFP said the suspect, who was arrested on Saturday in southern France, was
born in 1962 and lives outside of France. French authorities arrested a dual
Syrian-French national on charges that he supplied military technology to the
Syrian regime for use in chemical weapons. The French wire service AFP reported
on the chemical weapons delivery allegation on Sunday based on sources familiar
with the case. The unidentified suspect used his shipping company to deliver the
components to Syria. "He returned to France with his family for the holidays,"
said a source. He has been detained on suspicion of "conspiracy to commit crimes
against humanity, accessory to crimes against humanity and accessory to war
crimes, “ according to a judicial source. The AFP said the suspect, who was
arrested on Saturday in southern France, was born in 1962 and lives outside of
France. AFP reported that the alleged crimes stem from March, 2011 and lasted
until at least January 2018 and possibly later. The French authorities did not
release the name of the man who is the first suspect facing an inquiry for
aiding the Syrian army.
"This man is accused of having, through a company based in different places, in
France and in the United Arab Emirates, participated in supplying the means to
various state structures of the Syrian regime in charge of the production of
non-conventional weapons,” a source told AFP "
According to one legal source, it is the first time someone has been placed
under formal investigation in France on suspicion of supporting the Syrian army.
The Jerusalem Post has previously reported in 2019 that the giant German
chemical companies Brenntag AG and BASF allegedly sold chemical agents to the
Syrian regime that can be used for poison gas warfare against civilians.
In 2018, the Post reported that a Syrian photographer found parts made by the
German company the Krempel Group in the remains of Iranian-produced chemical
rockets that gassed Syrian civilians in January and February of 2018. Since the
war has unfolded in Syria in 2011, the regime of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad has killed over half a million people, according to estimates.
According to chemical weapons watchdog organizations, Syria’s regime has imposed
chemical warfare multiple times on its populations. In December, the UN wrote on
its website that “On 1 February 2018, Syria dropped chemical barrel bombs on its
own people ‘as part of barbaric siege,’ followed by a chemical attack, which
burned the skin of its victims, he said, pointing out that these facts
underscored the ‘audacity of the Assad regime,’ which steadfastly denies the
truth and portrays itself as a victim. He said that the Assad regime and its
enablers, notably the Russian Federation, should know that the United States
will use all available tools to promote accountability. Syria has used chemical
weapons an estimated 50 times since the start of the conflict.” Syria’s regime
claims it has not used chemical weapons to target civilians. Western powers
charged Syria’s regime with conducting a sarin gas attack that killed 1,400
people in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta in 2013.
Syria: Three ‘Microstates,’ Destruction, Circles of Hell
London - Ibrahim Hamidi/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
In 2021, five key factors have cast their shadows on Syria and its people.
Though they are not equal, the intertwining of these factors will substantially
impact the future of the country and people during the coming years. They will
also leave their effects on the decisions of foreign “players” and the five
armies (Russia, Iran, Turkey, US, and Israel) in the Levantine country.
For the second year in a row, contact lines in Syria have remained very much the
same, distributed among three “microstates” or spheres of influence. With the
help of Russia and Iran, the Syrian regime controls two-thirds of Syria’s
territory. Despite having the upper hand in the country’s center, west and
south, Damascus lost what’s sitting on the other side of the Euphrates, where
the US-led International Coalition and Kurdish-Arab allies, like the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF), control abundant national wealth that is locked in no
more than a quarter of Syria’s total geographical area. Other enclaves in the
countryside of Aleppo in the north and at Al-Tanf in the southeast of the
country, near the borders of Jordan and Iraq, are also controlled by the US and
its allies. The third sphere of influence is controlled by Syrian factions
backed by Turkey and includes three enclaves, one of which is located east of
the Euphrates and another two in the north and northwest of Syria. Collectively,
the land held by Turkish-backed forces sums up to twice the size of Lebanon.
What is noteworthy is that this area is home to around 3.5 million Syrians. Just
as many Syrians are also living in neighboring Turkey, which is now the host of
the largest number of Syrian voters, their ballots can swing elections if they
are ever held someday. Since the agreement between Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Moscow on March 5, 2020,
contact lines between these “microstates” have not changed significantly.
Moreover, lines of contact were strengthened when President Joe Biden took
office. After a catastrophic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington decided to
remain in northeastern Syria, informing Russians and its allies that US presence
will stay the same, at least until Biden’s term ends.
Israel’s Raids
Putin had offered the cover needed for Israel to engage with Iranian military
targets in Syria. A genuinely remarkable matter is for him to allow Tel Aviv to
intensively bomb the Iranians when they are Russia’s allies in Syria and
elsewhere. A military coordination mechanism between the Russian-operated
Hmeimim air base and Tel Aviv was activated. Israel escalated its raids in
Syria, using surface-to-surface missiles to bombard the Damascus countryside in
October, and bombed the port of Latakia on the Mediterranean for the first time.
In the final days of 2021, Israeli sources revealed that dozens of Hezbollah
targets in southern Syria had been hit during the past three years without any
retaliation. The most recent attack took place on Tuesday, when Israel targeted
Latakia Airport, 20 kilometers away from Hmeimim, for the second time in less
than a month.
Humanitarian Aid
Since Biden took office, the priority of the Syrian issue in his agenda has
declined. The US administration was satisfied with setting three goals:
providing humanitarian aid to all Syrians, preventing the return of ISIS, and
maintaining the ceasefire and the stability of the lines of contact.
Humanitarian aid remained a mainstay on the agenda of Syria talks without going
into more profound and more significant political issues, to the extent that the
UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen barely succeeded in holding simple
meetings of the Constitutional Committee. Disregard for the political part by
the Biden administration left more room for Russia’s insistence to get Arab
countries to normalize ties with the regime in Damascus. Moscow pressed Arab
nations to recognize the regime as a fait accompli in Syria and urged them to
start pumping funds for the reconstruction of the war-torn nation.
Arab Nations Normalizing Ties with Damascus
Since the end of 2011, the Arab League has suspended Syria’s membership.
Nevertheless, the Syrian government remained represented in United Nations
institutions because the UN Security Council did not take the decision to freeze
Damascus’ membership. Changes that took place over the past decade saw some
countries gradually reopening doors with Damascus. The embassies of UAE and
Bahrain in Syria partially returned to work at the end of 2018. Moreover, Arab
officials started taking visits to Damascus and held security and political
contacts with Syrian government. But there was no consensus on the country’s
return to the Arab League. Stagnation took over the track of normalizing ties
with Damascus, with almost no chance of it attending the Arab League summit
scheduled for the end of March 2022. Many observers say that the reason behind
this is that Damascus had failed to provide any concessions to Arab states on
the topics of its internal political process, abandoning the Iranian agenda,
fighting drug smuggling networks and combatting terrorism.
Crisis and Migration
The sight of Syrians riding “death boats” to escape the war across seas to
Europe was shocking in 2015, and it was believed that it had ended. But recent
events paint a different picture, as Syrians arrived at the Belarus-Poland
border to “escape hell” in Syria and reach the “European dream.” Social media
reported thousands of Syrians in front of immigration institutions to obtain
passports. Most of these Syrians are looking to escape poverty, poor living
conditions and hunger as their country’s economy continues to deteriorate.
Prospects and Questions
The stability of the lines of contact did not end the suffering for Syrians
wherever they are. Many questions on what the year 2022 will bring remain
unanswered. Will lines of contact remain constant? And for how long? Is the fate
of Syria partition, decentralization, or a return to “full sovereignty”? Will
any tension in Ukraine affect the US-Russian understandings east of the
Euphrates on the one hand, or the Russian-Turkish arrangements in Idlib on the
other, and change the size and borders of the “microstates”?
U.S. sounds caution against optimism by Iran, Russia
over nuclear talks
Reuters/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
The United States on Tuesday expressed caution over upbeat comments by Iran and
Russia about talks in Vienna to salvage the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, saying it
was still too soon to say if Tehran had returned to the negotiations with a
constructive approach.
Iran and Russia both gave upbeat views on Tuesday about talks that kicked off
this week to salvage Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with global powers, although
Western nations have said the negotiations are going too slowly. Iranian Foreign
Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said a deal was possible in the near future if
other parties showed "good faith" while Russian envoy Mikhail Ulyanov said a
working group was making "indisputable progress" in the eighth round of talks.
Speaking at a telephonic press briefing, State Department spokesperson Ned Price
said there was some progress in the last round of talks but it was too soon to
tell whether Tehran, in the current round, returned to the table to build on
those gains. "It's really too soon to tell whether Iran has returned with a more
constructive approach to this round," Price said. "We are now assessing, in the
course of these talks, whether the Iranians came back with an agenda of new
issues or preliminary solutions to the ones already presented," Price said. The
original agreement lifted sanctions against Tehran in exchange for restrictions
on its atomic activities but Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the deal in
2018, a year after he became U.S president. Iran later breached many of the
deal's nuclear restrictions and kept pushing well beyond them. The latest round
of indirect talks between Iran and the United States resumed on Monday in
Vienna, with Tehran focused on getting U.S. sanctions lifted again, as they were
under the original bargain, despite scant progress on reining in its atomic
activities. Iran refuses to meet U.S. officials directly, meaning other parties
to the deal besides the United States and Iran --- Russia, China, France,
Britain, Germany and the European Union -- must shuttle between the two sides.
The seventh round of talks, the first under Iran's new hardline President
Ebrahim Raisi, ended 11 days ago after some new Iranian demands were added to a
working text. "The Vienna talks are headed in a good direction," Iranian
Minister Amirabdollahian said in comments to reporters broadcast by state media.
"We believe that if other parties continue the round of talks which just started
with good faith, reaching a good agreement for all parties is possible."The U.S.
delegation, led by Special Envoy Rob Malley, will be in a better position in the
coming days to determine whether Iran has to come to the latest round of talks
with a 'fundamentally different position," Price said. Iran insists all U.S.
sanctions must be lifted before steps are taken on the nuclear side, while
Western negotiators say nuclear and sanctions steps must be balanced in the
agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA).
URGENT NEGOTIATIONS
European negotiators also said some technical progress had been made in the last
round of talks to accommodate Iranian requests, but warned that the parties only
had weeks, not months, to salvage the deal. France, Germany and the United
Kingdom said in a statement on Tuesday that technical progress had been made in
the last round and the parties now needed to fully focus on the key outstanding
issues, particularly nuclear and sanctions. They said while they were not
setting an artificial deadline, there were weeks not months left to strike a
deal. "The negotiation is urgent - and our teams are here to work swiftly and in
good faith towards getting a deal." Ulyanov, the Russian envoy, said on Tuesday
that a working group was making progress. "Sanctions lifting is being actively
discussed in informal settings," he wrote on Twitter. The 2015 deal extended the
time Iran would need to obtain enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb - if
it chose to - to at least a year from about two to three months. Most experts
say that time is now less than before the deal, although Iran says it only wants
to master nuclear technology for civil uses. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali
Bennett said Israel would not automatically oppose a nuclear deal but world
powers must take a firmer position. Israel says it will never allow Iran to get
nuclear weapons and that all options are on the table. Israeli leaders have said
that a nuclear Iran would pose an existential threat to Israel.
(This story refiles to fix spelling of word 'too' in first paragraph)
Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Daphne Psaledakis in Washington, Miranda Murray
in Berlin, Jeffrey Heller, Dan Williams and Ari Rabinovitch in Jerusalem, and
Dubai newsroom; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by David Clarke and Alistair Bell
Italian Minister Talks Migration with Tunisian President
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Italy's top diplomat Luigi Di Maio has discussed clandestine migration with
Tunisian President Kais Saied, in his first visit to the North African country
since the president's July 25 power grab. The foreign minister praised Tunisian
efforts to stem the flow of irregular migrants, according to a statement on the
presidency's website.Saied pointed out "the limits of traditional policies in
managing the phenomenon of clandestine migration". He called for new strategies
to encourage "regular migration according to mechanisms that respect the rights
of migrants". Italy is a key entry point to the European Union for migrants from
across Africa, with tens of thousands boarding rickety boats each year from
Libyan or Tunisian shores in search of better lives in Europe. In May, Italy's
Interior Minister Luciana Lamorgese visited Tunisia and announced a deal
offering the country economic aid in exchange for extra efforts to stop migrants
reaching Italy. Several Tunisian civil society groups marked Di Maio's visit
with a press conference to demand answers over the death of a Tunisian migrant
who had arrived in Sicily in October. Wissem Ben Abdellatif, 26, died after
being detained in a centre for migrants to be repatriated. "The living
conditions in these centres respect neither human dignity nor basic hygiene
standards, especially during the pandemic," said Romdhane Ben Amor of the
Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES). He said Tunisia had
"turned into the coastguard", stopping some 26,000 migrants reaching Italy in
2021. Ahmed Mssedi, a member of Avocats Sans Frontieres (Lawyers without
Borders), accused Italian authorities of "forcing migrants to sign documents
they don't understand". Italian authorities have said some 55,000 irregular
migrants reached Italy between January and the start of November, compared to
fewer than 30,000 last year, with Tunisian nationals making up the majority of
those who set out from Tunisia.
Kuwait Swears in Fourth Govt. in Two Years
Associated Press/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
A new Kuwaiti government was sworn in on Wednesday, the oil-rich Gulf emirate's
fourth in two years, after the last one resigned in November amid political
deadlock. Kuwait has been shaken by disputes between elected lawmakers and
successive governments dominated by the ruling Al-Sabah family for more than a
decade, with parliaments and cabinets dissolved several times. The last
government called it quits in November in the face of a standoff with parliament
over reforms. The cabinet was sworn in before the crown prince, the official
KUNA news agency reported.
It is the fourth government that Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Sabah has formed since his
appointment as prime minister in December 2019. Kuwait is the only Gulf Arab
state with a fully elected parliament, which enjoys wide legislative powers and
can vote ministers out of office.
Oil Minister Mohammed al-Fares and Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmed Nasser
al-Mohammed Al-Sabah retain their posts in the reshuffle. However, the new
lineup includes a critical voice in Finance Minister Abdulwahab Al-Rushaid, who
earlier this month called on government to "focus on a sustainable economy
rather than on the fluctuations of oil prices". Like most Gulf countries,
Kuwait's economy and public finances have been hit by the coronavirus pandemic
and the slumping price of oil. In last year's elections, the opposition and its
allies won nearly half of parliament's 50 seats. The polls were the first since
the new emir, Sheikh Nawaf, took power on the death of his half-brother, Sheikh
Sabah, at the age of 91. In recent years there have been mounting calls for
reform in Kuwait, where expatriate residents make up 70 percent of the 4.8
million population.
WHO: Omicron Risk Remains 'Very High'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
The risk posed by the Omicron variant is still "very high", the World Health
Organization said Wednesday, after Covid-19 case numbers shot up by 11 percent
globally last week. Omicron is behind rapid virus spikes in several countries,
including those where it has already overtaken the previously-dominant Delta
variant, the WHO said in its Covid-19 weekly epidemiological update. "The
overall risk related to the new variant of concern Omicron remains very high,"
the UN health agency said. "Consistent evidence shows that the Omicron variant
has a growth advantage over the Delta variant with a doubling time of two to
three days and rapid increases in the incidence of cases is seen in a number of
countries," including Britain and the United States, where it has become the
dominant variant.
"The rapid growth rate is likely to be a combination of both immune evasion and
intrinsic increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant."
However, the WHO highlighted the 29 percent decrease in the incidence of cases
observed in South Africa -- the country which first reported the variant to the
WHO on November 24, AFP reported.
It said early data from Britain, South Africa and Denmark -- which currently has
the world's highest rate of infection per person -- suggested there was a
reduced risk of hospitalization for Omicron compared to Delta.
However, further data was needed to understand Omicron's severity in terms of
clinical markers, including the use of oxygen, mechanical ventilation and death.
More data was also required on how the severity might be being impacted by
previous Covid infection, or vaccination. "It is also expected that
corticosteroids and interleukin 6 receptor blockers will remain effective in the
management of patients with severe disease," the WHO said. "However, preliminary
data suggest that monoclonal antibodies may be less able to neutralise the
Omicron variant."
The Latest The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 29-30/2021
Iran’s ‘Dragging Its Feet’ on Return to Nuclear
Deal, U.S. Says
Jarrell Dillard, Jonathan Tirone, and Arsalan Shahla/Politics/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
Talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal that have resumed in Vienna show some
progress but it’s “far too slow,” a U.S. official said Tuesday.
“Iran has at best been dragging its feet in the talks while accelerating its
nuclear escalation,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a press
briefing. “We have been very clear that that won’t work.” If Iran continues at
that pace, it will be too late to restore the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran
and world powers known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, he said.
Diplomats reconvened Monday in the Austrian capital for an eighth round of
negotiations meant to limit the Persian Gulf country’s nuclear activities in
exchange for relief from U.S. sanctions. Deep divisions continue to plague the
European Union-brokered talks, forcing diplomats to contemplate outcomes that
fall short of fully reviving the landmark 2015 accord, according to officials
with knowledge of the discussions. The new round of talks in Vienna could leave
the accord neither quite alive nor categorically dead. While there’s no formal
discussion of an interim deal, even leaving the accord in a state of limbo would
require an implicit understanding among all sides not to escalate further. Iran
took a big step in that direction when it said on Dec. 25 that it wouldn’t
exceed 60% enrichment of uranium. “The most important issue for us is to reach a
point where Iran can sell its oil comfortably and without any restrictions and
receive its money in foreign currency in its own bank accounts,” Iran’s Foreign
Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said Monday, according to the semi-official
ISNA news agency. “We should be able to fully reap the nuclear deal’s economic
benefits.”
Without Nuclear Deal, How Close Is Ran to a Bomb: Quicktake
But European and U.S. diplomats are increasingly skeptical they can offer the
kind of sanctions relief Iran demands. The Islamic Republic has continued to
dramatically increase its nuclear activities in the wake of the U.S. decision to
unilaterally exit the accord almost four years ago.
That’s resulted in a dwindling time horizon for diplomacy to prevent Iran from
marshaling the resources necessary to build a nuclear weapon. Following the last
diplomatic round that adjourned Dec. 17, one European official, who asked not to
be identified in return for discussing the talks, said the window of opportunity
had shrunk to a matter of weeks. Even some of Iran’s primary advocates in
the talks, which include China and Russia, suggest the newest round might have
just a month to succeed. Iran says it has no intention of building warheads but
concerns that it might covertly try to do so drove the international diplomatic
effort that culminated in the 2015 accord. Energy markets have been closely
watching the talks for signs of whether Iran, the holder of the world’s No. 2
gas and No. 4 oil reserves, might return to global markets. Two Iranian envoys
familiar with the talks, who also asked not to be identified in line with
diplomatic rules, rejected European and U.S. ultimatums limiting the time for
diplomacy. While one official said Iran’s ready to negotiate as long as
necessary to strike a deal, the other suggested the country is looking at
fall-back options in case the Vienna talks collapse. Former U.S.
intelligence officials wrote this month that the Biden administration should
threaten to attack Iran’s nuclear infrastructure unless it acquiesces. Israel
has similarly suggested it could bomb Iranian positions to prevent the country
from manufacturing a nuclear weapon.
Iran prepares commemoration for Qasem Soleimani -
analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/Wednesday, 29 December, 2021
As we approach 2022, the Iranian media is once again heralding Soleimani as a
transformative figure who played a key role in the region.
Almost two years since the death of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in
a US drone strike while leaving Baghdad international airport with Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis,
a Shi’ite militia leader in Iraq, the Iranian media is once again heralding
Soleimani as a transformative figure who played a key role in the region.
Together they were coordinating efforts against the US there. Since May 2019
they had been planning and executing rocket attacks on American forces in Iraq,
as well as attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Days before they were killed, tensions had risen dramatically and pro-Iranian
forces in the country had tried to storm the US embassy.
The accounts of his life generally try to show how Soleimani played such a role
in the battle against ISIS. If one of the narratives of his life is that he
helped establish Iranian influence and militia roots across the region,
empowering Iranian allies and proxies like Hezbollah, Iran has a slightly
different story to tell.
A recent article in Iranian media praised Soleimani for his key role in 2014
helping to defend Samarra, a city north of Baghdad, from ISIS. He helped protect
an important shrine even as areas around Samarra, such as Camp Speicher, had
been overrun.
The article portrays Soleimani’s bravery and willingness to go by himself into
the most dangerous places and in the thick of battle to inspire fighters to
stand fast against ISIS.
Other articles have depicted his life in a similar manner. They emphasize that
Soleimani, also known as Haj Qasim, was not merely a regional strategic asset
for Iran, but was also a commander in the field since the 1980s. An article at
Fars News notes how he played an increasing regional and global war in the last
decades. “He enters Afghanistan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon,
etc.” Fars wrote. “In every field, he creates an epic. Haj Qasim made a
statement about Bahrain. See how much people paid attention to this statement at
that time. It is not common in the world for a military force [leader] to make a
statement. But what did Haj Qasim do that friends and enemies in the world paid
attention to this statement?
“From this point on, the further we went, the more Haj Qasim grew,” the report
said. “It seems that Haj Qasim’s foundation has reached a stage where he will be
martyred at the height of his honor.”
Iran has sought to emphasize that Soleimani helped save Iraq from ISIS and that
he played a key role in Syria, as well as helping Kurds fight ISIS in 2014. The
conclusion of the articles about him is that his death has not damaged the Quds
Force, but rather inspired it to new heights. Whether that is true or not Iran
has suffered a number of setbacks in losses of key personnel recently. Iran’s
ambassador to the Houthis in Yemen, apparently a high-level IRGC officer as
well, recently died.
The Islamic Republic’s remaining key figure in the region is Hassan Nasrallah.
He also has problems trying both to control Lebanon and project Hezbollah
influence. The terrorist group has been accused of greater involvement in Yemen,
for instance. The question remains whether Iran’s role in the region has
suffered a setback with the loss of Soleimani. Clearly in terms of assets on the
ground, Iran plays a huge role from Lebanon via Syria to Iraq and in Yemen. It
also plays a role in Gaza with Hamas.
But Iran may be suffering from a bit of imperial overstretch, its economy is
hungry for a reduction in sanctions and Iran has to decide if it wants to reduce
its destabilizing activities and pivot to work with China, or if the Quds Force
model is the only one it knows how to promote.
Azerbaijan looms over Turkey-Armenia normalisation push
Neil Hauer/The Arab Weekly/December 29/2021
In recent weeks, pronouncements that Turkey and Armenia are seeking to normalise
ties for the first time in a generation has prompted at least some hope of
reconciliation between the two. There is ample scepticism, for obvious reasons,
over the possibilities of success, but the appointment of special envoys in each
country devoted to the task seems to constitute some tangible progress.
But there is another external factor that is more likely to derail the process
than even the century-long mutual recrimination between the two: the Baku-sized
roadblock standing squarely between Yerevan and Ankara.
The long-standing enmity between Turkey and Armenia needs little introduction: a
country is not likely to have good relations with the successor state of those
who perpetrated a genocide against its people, especially when they continue to
deny it (Turkey denies the Ottoman-era Armenian genocide). The two sides did
enjoy a brief rapprochement after the Soviet Union’s collapse, as Armenia
reemerged as an independent nation in 1991. This would be short-lived. Turkey
promptly severed the nascent relations and sealed its border with Armenia just
two years later in support of its Turkic ally Azerbaijan in the First
Nagorno-Karabakh War, a situation that persists to this day.
Two momentous events occurred last year that shook that state of affairs. First
and most obviously, Ankara stepped in with the full military and political
support of Azerbaijan as it reconquered most of the disputed territories held by
Armenian forces following the war in the early 1990s. More interesting, however,
is one of the externalities of that outcome: Armenia no longer controlled any of
the seven regions of Azerbaijan around the former Karabakh province that it held
until 2020. Turkey’s official rationale for severing relations (and keeping them
that way) had always been Armenia’s occupation of those seven regions, not the
Karabakh conflict itself. Suddenly, this precondition for restoring ties had
become obsolete.
Feelers were put out earlier this year. A number of Turkish officials close to
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made statements that Turkey was ready to
normalise ties with Armenia, while in Yerevan, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
and others reiterated Armenia’s long-standing position of willingness to
normalise without preconditions.
The question seemed to be ready to move forward, but with one unspoken caveat on
which all hopes of progress would rest: how much, if at all, would Turkey care
to placate Azerbaijan?
For Baku, its strategy since the end of last year’s war has been one of
unbridled pressure toward its defeated neighbour. In an effort to force Armenia
to both abandon the Russian-guarded rump of Karabakh entirely and to allow
unfettered access between Azerbaijan proper and its Nakhchivan exclave,
Azerbaijan has closed Armenia’s main north-south road, occupied parts of its
territory and launched offensives into Armenia proper.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly stressed that “the Karabakh
conflict is over” and that “the Zangezur corridor will be opened,” two goals he
clearly hopes Turkey will help him with. For a time, it seemed unclear whether
Ankara was on board with this provocative strategy, as many months passed
without official Turkish comment on Baku’s actions along the Armenian border.
That question, however, appears to have been decided. In the last two months,
Turkish diplomats have started to reference Azerbaijan repeatedly when
describing potential rapprochement with Armenia. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut
Cavusoglu provides the prime example of this, with statements that Ankara will
“act together with Azerbaijan at every step” in its Armenia negotiations and
referencing the final settlement of the Karabakh conflict (something that is not
remotely on the horizon) as coming alongside Turkey-Armenia progress. Whatever
happened behind the scenes, Erdogan’s administration apparently decided it would
rather keep Aliyev fully onside rather than risk any serious progress with
Armenia.
Baku has torpedoed this process before. In 2008, Yerevan and Ankara began a
series of negotiations on reopening the border, with a few high-profile football
matches between the sides, before Azerbaijani pressure on Turkey led to its
collapse. This time, however, Turkey is even openly signalling that it will not
engage Armenia beyond the limits Baku sets for it, however, oppressive those may
be. In the current case, Aliyev’s conditions for Armenia are both a clear
non-starter for serious negotiations and something the Azerbaijani leader
appears unwilling to back down from. If Turkey is truly hitching its own process
with Armenia to this wagon, it too will remain at the station.
At the moment of writing, there were still more seemingly hopeful, yet
ultimately noncommittal, signs of progress on the horizon: Pashinyan and Aliyev
agreed at a summit in Brussels to reopen the Soviet-era rail link connecting the
two countries, another tenet of last year’s cease-fire agreement. Russia remains
a wild card: it continues to publicly push for the reopening of transit links
between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as for Turkish-Armenian normalisation,
but its sincerity is in question as the status quo of the region suits Moscow
just fine. But until the railway ties are physically being laid across the
Armenia-Turkey or Armenia-Azerbaijan border, all this remains empty talk and
merely more verbal agreements for their own sake rather than anything tangible.