English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 20/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit
Saint John 12/20-28/:”Among those who went up to worship at the festival were some Greeks. They came to Philip, who was from Bethsaida in Galilee, and said to him, ‘Sir, we wish to see Jesus.’Philip went and told Andrew; then Andrew and Philip went and told Jesus. Jesus answered them, ‘The hour has come for the Son of Man to be glorified. Very truly, I tell you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains just a single grain; but if it dies, it bears much fruit. Those who love their life lose it, and those who hate their life in this world will keep it for eternal life.Whoever serves me must follow me, and where I am, there will my servant be also. Whoever serves me, the Father will honour. ‘Now my soul is troubled. And what should I say “Father, save me from this hour”? No, it is for this reason that I have come to this hour. Father, glorify your name.’ Then a voice came from heaven, ‘I have glorified it, and I will glorify it again.’

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 19-20/2022/
Body of Irish peacekeeper killed in Lebanon arrives home
UNIFIL and Lebanon hold memorial for killed Irish peacekeeper
Report: UNIFIL accuses Hezbollah of inciting residents against it
Mikati says presidency solution being prepared abroad
Reports: Paris to push for Aoun election, Tamim to discuss Lebanon in US
26 inmates escape from Jeb Jannine prison
Tariff hike on imported goods squeezes struggling consumers in Lebanon
Women lack basics in crisis-hit Lebanon's crowded prisons
Lebanon PM’s justice vow on UN convoy attack

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 19-20/2022/
Saudi-Iran talks said to have stalled over protests in Iran/Qassim Abdul Zahra/AP/December 19/2022
Analysis: US leaves door open for Iran nuclear diplomacy
Iranian taxi driver tortured before death, examination after exhumation reveals
Four Iranian security personnel killed in southeast Iran, IRNA says
Iran says Jordan summit 'good opportunity' for nuclear talks
Three Jordanian policemen killed during raid: Statement
Russia's Wagner Group officers hide in cover and watch with drones as 'expendable' troops are sent to die in Ukraine, UK intel says
Kremlin: Russia still considering response to oil price cap - TASS
Kyiv says Russian 'kamikaze' drone flies over South Ukraine nuclear plant
Putin lands in Belarus for talks amid fears of new assault on Ukraine
Russian military releases propaganda pop song fantasizing about its nukes wiping out NATO and the US
Russian President Vladimir Putin joins President Biden in sounding the alarm on the risk of nuclear war — here's what Warren Buffett says about the ‘greatest danger’ facing the world
Exclusive-Russian-annexed Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul
'Offside': Macron stirs critics with World Cup final role

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 19-20/2022/
The Iranian theocracy’s downfall is a goal worth working toward/Reuel Marc Gerecht/ Washington Examiner/December 19/2022
Iranian regime left feeling perplexed by China/Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/December 19, 2022
How US political scene has shifted/Aziz Huq and Tom Ginsburg/Arab News/December 19, 2022
Biden Administration and the Two-State Delusion/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/December 19, 2022
Berlin steps in to help Athens, Ankara mend ties/Menekse Tokyay/Arab News/December 19, 2022
When Christendom Learned to Fight Fire with Fire/Raymond Ibrahim/December 19, 2022

on December 19-20/2022/
Body of Irish peacekeeper killed in Lebanon arrives home
Agence France Presse/December 19, 2022
The body of an Irish United Nations peacekeeper killed in Lebanon was on Monday returned to Ireland with full military honors. Private Sean Rooney, 23, was killed and three others were wounded on Wednesday after a U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) convoy came under fire near the village of al-Aqbiyeh in the south of the country. One of the wounded, Private Shane Kearney, remains in a serious condition in hospital. UNIFIL has demanded a "speedy" investigation into the attack, which reportedly followed an altercation over with locals. UNIFIL acts as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel, which remain technically at war. The force operates in the south near the border, a stronghold of Iran-backed Hezbollah. Hezbollah security chief Wafic Safa has said the killing was "unintentional."It is the first death of a UNIFIL member in a violent incident in Lebanon since January 2015, when a Spanish peacekeeper was killed by Israeli fire. UNIFIL was set up in 1978 to monitor the withdrawal of Israeli forces after they invaded Lebanon under the excuse of an Palestinian attack. Israel withdrew from south Lebanon in 2000 but fought a devastating 2006 war with Hezbollah.

UNIFIL and Lebanon hold memorial for killed Irish peacekeeper
Associated Press/December 18, 2022
The Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeepers held a memorial at the Beirut airport on Sunday for an Irish soldier killed by a mob that opened fire last week at two vehicles belonging to the U.N. peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. The attack that killed 24 year-old Pvt. Seán Rooney of Newtowncunningham took place near the southern town of al-Aqbiyeh on Wednesday night, as he and seven other Irish peacekeepers from a U.N. peacekeeping mission, known as UNIFIL, were on their way to the Beirut airport. A person familiar with the investigation said local residents were angered and became aggressive when two UNIFIL armored vehicles took a detour through al-Aqbiyeh, which the residents said is not part of the area under UNIFIL's mandate. Hezbollah, which has bases and traditional strongholds in southern Lebanon, has not officially commented on the attack, but its security chief has offered condolences to UNIFIL while calling for distancing Hezbollah from the attack. One of the unidentified attackers shot Rooney in the head, a security official said. Three other Irish peacekeepers in another UNIFIL vehicle were injured when their car crashed into the aluminum shutters of a building and rolled over as it tried to flee the scene. At the airport memorial, U.N. peacekeepers stood by Rooney's coffin after it arrived from a hospital the southern city of Sidon. His body was then transferred to a military carrier to be taken back to Ireland. "We shall always keep in mind our fallen comrades in arms, as they represent an example of an unwavering commitment to UNIFIL and this country," the UNIFIL chief, Maj. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro, said at the memorial. Representatives of Lebanese caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Slim and Army chief General Joseph Aoun also attended. The Lebanese authorities have not yet commented on the ongoing investigation, though the security official added that seven bullets were retrieved from the vehicle. The Irish military declined to comment on the incident to the AP. Confrontations between residents in southern Lebanon and UNIFIL troops are not uncommon. In January, unknown perpetrators attacked Irish peacekeepers in the southern town of Bint Jbeil, vandalizing their vehicles and stealing items. The residents accused them of taking photographs of residential homes, though the U.N. mission denied this. UNIFIL was created to oversee the withdrawal of Israeli troops from southern Lebanon after a 1978 invasion. The U.N. expanded its mission following the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, allowing peacekeepers to deploy along the Lebanon-Israel border to help the Lebanese military extend its authority into the country's south for the first time in decades.That resolution also called for a full cessation of Israeli-Hezbollah hostilities, which has largely happened.

Report: UNIFIL accuses Hezbollah of inciting residents against it
Naharnet/December 19, 2022
A Lebanese security report revealed that the UNIFIL vehicle targeted in the deadly al-Aqbiyeh incident was hit by “27 gunshots from several sides,” the Nidaa al-Watan newspaper quoted “credible sources” as saying. “Security experts determined that the incident was not spontaneous and that the relevant parties in the area did not take a decision to contain the situation immediately after the incident,” the sources added. “Based on the information and evidence contained in this report, Lebanese officials communicated with Hezbollah’s leadership to stress that the issue had become embarrassing toward the U.N. and the international community and that an appropriate exit should quickly be found,” Nidaa al-Watan said. Accordingly, a senior Hezbollah security official “sought to hold a direct meeting with UNIFIL’s commander in a bid to reach the best formula to wrap up the case, but the meeting was held remotely via the Zoom application,” the sources added. “During the Zoom meeting, the Hezbollah security official reiterated that the party is keen on the relation with UNIFIL and that it had nothing to do with what happened in the town of al-Aqbiyeh,” the sources said. “If you are not directly responsible for the incident, you are responsible for inciting the popular environment in the South against us,” the sources quoted UNIFIL’s commander as telling Hezbollah’s official.

Mikati says presidency solution being prepared abroad
Naharnet/December 19, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati revealed Monday that foreign countries are “preparing” a solution for the Lebanese presidential crisis. “Yes, according to foreign information, there is something that is being prepared to resolve the crisis, but things need time,” Mikati said in response to a question, during a meeting with a delegation from the Press Editors Syndicate. As for the possibility of holding new caretaker cabinet sessions following the controversy over the December 5 meeting, Mikati said: “When necessary and urgent, I will call on Cabinet to convene, according to the constitutional powers vested in me, but at the moment there is nothing urgent that requires holding a session.”Mikati also rejected the so-called “roaming decrees” formula that has been proposed by the Free Patriotic Movement, noting that it would be unconstitutional. Asked about the deadly attack on UNIFIL in the South, Mikati warned against exaggerating the incident as well as against taking it lightly. It was not “an ordinary or an occasional incident. It must be taken seriously and full investigations and accountability must take place. I’m following up on this file with the Army Command, which is conducting the necessary investigations, and we hope to reach an outcome soon,” the caretaker PM added. Responding to a question, Mikati said: “Seeing as the incident took place outside UNIFIL’s area of operations, it is likely that it was not premeditated.”As for the incidents in the southern border town of Rmeish between residents and elements affiliated with Hezbollah, Mikati revealed that he has requested a “full report” on the issue from the Army Command. “Cooperation is ongoing between the army and UNIFIL in this file and the posts belonging to the Green Without Borders NGO are being inspected and surveilled,” Mikati added. Commenting on the reports that alleged that Iranian arms are being brought into the country through Beirut’s airport, Mikati said: “I met last week with the army chief and the security chiefs, and they all emphasized that the investigations that took place had confirmed that the reports were baseless and that no arms were entering through the airport.” “When the reports on the airport file surfaced and after the UNIFIL incident I intended to call on the Higher Defense Council to convene in my capacity as its deputy head, but I refrained from the move so that I don’t get accused of provoking anyone,” the caretaker PM added. Mikati also said that his latest meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was “excellent.” “We talked about matters related to the country and he expressed his love for Lebanon, especially for the Lebanese who live in KSA,” Mikati added.

Reports: Paris to push for Aoun election, Tamim to discuss Lebanon in US
Naharnet/December 19, 2022
Some parties are betting that France will launch an initiative related to the Lebanese presidential file in “the beginning of next year,” informed political sources said. “It will likely try to reach a domestic-foreign agreement over the nomination of Army Commander General Joseph Aoun,” the sources told ad-Diyar newspaper in remarks published Monday. Al-Liwaa newspaper for its part noted that French President Emmanuel Macron will take part Tuesday in the Baghdad 2nd Summit for Cooperation and Partnership in Jordan, amid reports that “the situation in Lebanon will be discussed from the angle of restoring regularity in the country.”Quoting prominent diplomatic sources, the daily said there are contacts aimed at including an “important” clause about Lebanon in the summit’s closing statement. The clause will disclose “the outcome of the consultations that were held in Doha between the French president and the Qatari officials, and with the countries that can influence the Lebanese situation, topped by the U.S., KSA and Iran,” al-Liwaa said. It will also reflect the stances of “a number of Lebanese politicians who visited Doha lately,” the newspaper added. Moreover, al-Liwaa reported that Qatar’s ruler Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad will visit Washington in the coming days carrying a number of files, including the Lebanese file, and will push for “filling the vacuum in the country’s top post.”

26 inmates escape from Jeb Jannine prison
Naharnet/December 19, 2022
Twenty-six inmates escaped at dawn Monday from the Jeb Jannine prison in West Bekaa, the state-run National News Agency reported. The agency added that most of the escapees were jailed over drug trading and arms-related offenses.

Tariff hike on imported goods squeezes struggling consumers in Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/December 19/2022
Hiking the rate at which the customs fee is calculated, officials say, will boost state revenues. Every time a part of his old grey Mercedes breaks, 62-year-old Beirut cab driver Abed Omayraat faces a tough choice: go into debt to import an expensive car part, or raise fares for customers whose wallets are already drained by a severe economic crisis. It is a dilemma he says has become more acute in recent months as Lebanon’s government moved to increase tariffs on imported goods about ten-fold in a country that ships in more than 80% of what it consumes, including spare parts he needs. “My tyres are finished now, you can see they’re worn out. When it rains, I’m worried the car will slide,” Omayraat said. Changing them is necessary, “but I can’t afford it. “Lebanon’s economic meltdown, now in its fourth year, has seen the currency lose more than 95% of its value and left eight in ten Lebanese poor, according to the United Nations. With foreign currency coffers dwindling, the state has already lifted subsidies on fuel and most medication. Hiking the rate at which the customs fee is calculated, officials say, will boost state revenues and is a step towards unifying various exchange rates. They are among pre-conditions set by the International Monetary Fund in April for Lebanon to get a $3 billion bailout, but the lender of last resort says reforms have been too slow.
The tariff jump came into effect on December 1. Import taxes began being calculated at an exchange rate of 15,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar instead of the old 1,507, meaning traders suddenly had to pay much more to bring in products such as home appliances, telephones or car parts. That is set to pile even more financial pressure on people struggling to make ends meet. Omayraat says many passengers already ask for discounts on the standard 40,000 Lebanese pound ride fee. “Do you tell a person that you want a 100,000 pound fare? I’m basically telling them: don’t ride with me. Neither can he (afford it), nor can I take him. He’s not able to eat and I won’t be able to eat,” Omayraat said. Rabih Fares, an architect from northern Lebanon who began importing used cars when business slowed down, said the new rate was forcing car dealerships to boost prices or go out of business. “You need to work four to five years just to be able to afford the customs rate on a car now,” said Fares, who estimated fees to import one used car could average 94 million Lebanese pounds, or about 156 times the minimum monthly wage. The finance ministry said revenues gathered in the 15 days since the decision came into effect showed a “huge difference” but said figures would be ready by the end of the month. Parliament agreed on the rate in September but it was not rolled out until December, a delay that caretaker Economy Minister Amin Salam said allowed traders to load up on imports before the tariff hike, while increasing selling prices. “When you announced it three months ago, it’s as if you are going and telling those who don’t want to work right in the market: go find a way to benefit. And this is what happened,” he said. It has left him sceptical that Lebanon will implement the reforms necessary to score a final IMF bailout in the coming months. “As we are now, I in my personal opinion do not see it happening soon, which worries me because, as I said, each day of delay is costing the country millions and millions and costs the people pain and misery,” Salam said.

Women lack basics in crisis-hit Lebanon's crowded prisons
Agence France Presse/December 19, 2022
Nour is raising her four-month-old daughter in Lebanon's most overpopulated women's prison, struggling to get formula and nappies for her baby as the country's economy lies in tatters. "I don't have enough milk to breastfeed, and baby formula isn't readily available," said the 25-year-old, who was detained eight months ago on drug-related accusations. "Sometimes my daughter doesn't have formula for three days," she added, as green-eyed Amar wriggled on her lap. Lebanese authorities have long struggled to care for the more than 8,000 people stuck in the country's jails. But three years of an unprecedented economic crisis mean even basics like medicines are lacking, while cash-strapped families struggle to support their jailed relatives. Essentials like baby formula have become luxuries for many Lebanese, as the financial collapse -- dubbed by the World Bank as one of the worst in recent world history -- has pushed most of the population into poverty. A months-long judges' strike has exacerbated the situation in prisons, contributing to overcrowding. Nour said she and her daughter shared a cell at the Baabda women's prison with another 23 people, including two other babies. She said she sometimes kept Amar in the same nappy overnight while waiting for her parents to bring fresh supplies, but said even they can "barely help with one percent of my baby's needs." In a hushed voice, she said the shower water gave her and her daughter rashes, but that Amar had never been examined by a prison doctor. "We all make mistakes, but the punishment we get here is double," Nour said.
'We need basics'
Inmates at the prison, located outside the capital Beirut, spoke to AFP in the presence of the prison director and declined to provide their surnames. Around them, in the facility's breakroom, paint peeled off the walls and water dripped from the ceiling. Rampant inflation and higher fuel prices have also prevented families from visiting their jailed relatives regularly. Bushra, another inmate, said she had not seen her teenage daughter for nine months because her family could not afford transportation. She was detained earlier this year on slander allegations and has been in jail ever since. "I miss my daughter," said the tattooed 28-year-old, as her eyes welled up with tears. "So many mothers here cannot even see their children," she added. Caretaker Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi said in September that Lebanon's economic crisis had "multiplied the suffering of inmates." His ministry has appealed for more international support for the prison system, citing overcrowding, poor maintenance and shortages of food and medications. Inmate Tatiana, 32, expressed helplessness at her and her family's situation. She said her mother had slipped into poverty and was living on just $1 a day. Prisoners "need basics: shampoo, deodorant, clothes," said Tatiana, who has been waiting for a court hearing for nearly three years. "But our parents cannot afford them for themselves, how can they buy those things for us?" she added, dark circles lining her eyes.
'Absent state'
Tatiana is among the nearly 80 percent of Lebanon's prison population languishing in pre-trial detention, according to interior ministry figures. Prison occupancy stands at 323 percent nationwide. The country's already slow judiciary has been paralyzed since August, when judges started an open-ended strike to demand better wages. Inmates told AFP they slept on dirty mattresses strewn on the floor in a one-toilet cell shared between more than 20 people. Baabda women's prison director Nancy Ibrahim said more than 105 detainees were crammed into the jail's five cells, compared to around 80 before the economic collapse. Non-governmental organizations help with everything from food to "medications, vaccinations for the children" and maintenance, she told AFP from her office at the facility. Rana Younes, 25, a social worker at Dar Al Amal, said her organization helps women prisoners get the basics including sanitary pads, and also provides legal assistance and even funding for cancer treatments. She said prisoners sometimes missed court hearings because authorities failed to secure fuel or transportation for them. Dar Al Amal has spent thousands of dollars on repairs for worn-out pipes and trucked-in water supplies at the Baabda prison, said organization director Hoda Kara. "Parents can no longer help, the state is absent, so we try to fill the gap," she said.

Lebanon PM’s justice vow on UN convoy attack
Najia Houssari/Arabic News/December 19, 2022
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has promised a full investigation into the attack on a UN peacekeeping convoy that left one soldier dead, saying: “Accountability must be taken.”Mikati said on Monday that is “unacceptable to undermine the gravity of the incident,” which took place near the village of Al-Aqabiya in southern Lebanon. “The incident must be taken seriously. Full investigations must be conducted and accountability must be taken,” he said in a meeting with journalists. The Lebanese Army Intelligence Directorate is investigating the incident.
Pvt. Sean Rooney, 23, an Irish soldier serving with the peacekeeping force, was killed and three others were wounded last Wednesday when their UN Interim Force in Lebanon convoy came under fire in Al-Aqabiya. UNIFIL acts as a buffer between Lebanon and Israel, and operates in the south near the border, a stronghold of Iran-backed Hezbollah. One of the wounded, Pvt. Shane Kearney, remains in a serious condition in hospital.
Mikati said: “We hope that investigations soon yield an answer.”
He said that it was unlikely the attack was planned since it took place outside the UNIFIL area of operations. The prime minister visited UNIFIL headquarters last week and condemned the incident. On Monday, caretaker Defense Minister Maurice Slim checked on the wounded from the Irish battalion, and confirmed that investigations were underway. The security services are playing a role, and all involved will be held accountable, he said. Mikati also said that his government is committed to fulfilling its tasks during the presidential vacancy. “The main priority is to elect a new president and form a new government, noting that electing the president does not mean the end of the crisis, but rather opening the door to a grace period in the country to reach a solution.”Lebanon’s crippling economic crisis has resulted in the national currency losing more than 90 percent of its value, with an unprecedented increase in the dollar exchange rate on the parallel market. The exchange rate reached LBP43,000 to the dollar on Monday. Parliament so far has failed to elect a president due to the deep division among MPs.
Mikati said that “according to external data, some preparations are taking place to resolve the Lebanese crisis. However, things need time.”Christian blocs oppose the holding of Cabinet sessions, claiming the caretaker government has no right to exercise the powers of a president. Mikati said: “When necessary, I will call on the Cabinet to convene, in accordance with the constitutional powers entrusted to me. However, for the time being, there is nothing urgent that requires holding a session. “Setting the Cabinet’s agenda is entrusted exclusively to the prime minister,” he said. Mikati also said the Cabinet decisions “are taken by the majority of those present in ordinary matters, and by the majority of the members of the government in exceptional decisions.”He called on his opponents, including the Free Patriotic Movement, to stop “disrupting and speaking out about the disruption. It is more productive not to disrupt the remainder of institutions.” He added: “The solution lies in the Lebanese agreeing on their vision for the future, away from fruitless populism. “We are in a state of emergency and must, as a government and a parliament, agree on the fundamental solutions.” Referring to his talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh a week earlier, Mikati said: “It was an excellent meeting.” He added: “We spoke about the country’s matters and he expressed his love for Lebanon, and particularly for the Lebanese nationals residing in Saudi Arabia.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 19-20/2022/
Saudi-Iran talks said to have stalled over protests in Iran
Qassim Abdul Zahra/AP/December 19/2022
Baghdad-mediated diplomatic talks between regional rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia have come to a halt, largely because of Tehran claims the Sunni kingdom has played a role in alleged foreign incitement of the mass anti-government protests underway in Iran, multiple Iraqi officials said.
The talks had been lauded as a breakthrough that would ease regional tensions. Iraq’s new Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said last month after taking office that Iraq had been asked to continue facilitating the dialogue. However, an anticipated sixth round of talks, to be hosted by Baghdad, has not been scheduled because Tehran refuses to meet with Saudi officials as protests in Iran enter a fourth month, according to the Iraqi officials. “The Iranian-Saudi negotiations have stalled, and this will have a negative impact on the region,” said Amer al-Fayez, an Iraqi lawmaker and member of the parliamentary Foreign Relations Committee. On his first official visit to Tehran in November, al-Sudani inquired about resuming the talks and mentioned he would be traveling to the Saudi capital of Riyadh soon.
But the Iranians told him they would not meet with Saudi counterparts and accused the kingdom of supporting country-wide protests in Iran through Saudi-funded media channels, according to an official who is a member of Iraq’s ruling Coordination Framework coalition, an alliance of mostly Iran-backed groups.
The details were confirmed by five Iraqi officials, including government officials, Iran-backed militia groups and Shiite Muslim political party figures. All spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the subject with the media.
Iran’s U.N. mission confirmed the talks had halted but did not provide an explanation. “The talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia ceased before the recent developments in Iran, for a variety of reasons. It might be worth asking Saudi Arabia about them,” the mission said in a statement.
The kingdom did not respond to requests for comment.
Iran’s apparent refusal to continue with the talks is a setback for al-Sudani, who had hoped an ongoing Saudi-Iran dialogue would enable Iraq to buttress its role as a regional mediator. Halting the talks could have regional repercussions as well, with the two nations supporting opposing forces in several conflicts across the Middle East, including in Syria and Yemen, where Iran backs Houthi rebels fighting against the kingdom. Iran accuses Saudi Arabia of funding the London-based Iran International, a news channel which has been reporting extensively on the protests that erupted in Iran in mid-September. Iran International is a Farsi-language satellite news channel that was once majority-owned by a Saudi national.
Tehran was also irked by a joint statement issued after an Arab-China summit in Riyadh last week, according to an Iraqi official in the Foreign Ministry. In the statement, Saudi Arabia and China said they agreed to “strengthen joint cooperation to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program,” while also calling on Iran to respect “principles of good neighborliness and non-interference in internal affairs of states.”China has been a longtime economic partner to Iran, with bilateral relations centered on Beijing’s energy needs but also including arm sales. The deepening ties between the countries are also seen as strategic regional counterweight to the United States and its allies. Tehran is worried that improved economic ties between Beijing and Riyadh could unravel this status quo, Iraqi officials said. Saudi Arabia, with a majority Sunni population, and Iran, which is majority Shiite, have been at odds since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, but relations worsened after the 2016 execution of Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr by Riyadh. The incident set off protests in Saudi Arabia and Iran, where demonstrators set fire to the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic relations soured after that.
Direct talks were launched in April 2021, brokered by Iraq, in a bid to improve relations. The mere existence of a dialogue was seen as important, even if the only notable result so far has been Iran reopening the country’s representative office to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in the Saudi city of Jeddah.
Iran has been mired in anti-government protests since Sept. 16, following the death of 22-year old Mahsa Amini in police custody, after she was arrested for allegedly violating the country’s strict Islamic dress code. From demonstrations calling for greater freedoms for women, the protests have become one of the greatest challenges to Iran’s theocracy since the chaotic years after the Islamic Revolution. At least 495 people have been killed since the demonstrations started, according to Iran rights monitor HRANA, with reported incidents of Iranian security forces using live ammunition, pellets and rubber bullets to disperse crowds. Over 18,000 people have been detained across dozens of cities. Iran claims the protests are orchestrated by foreign agents, including the U.S. and its regional allies. At the start of the protests, Tehran blamed Kurdish opposition groups exiled in Iraq for fueling the demonstrations and funneling weapons into Iran, without providing evidence for the claims. Iran unleashed a barrage of missile attacks into northern Iraq targeting the party bases, killing at least a dozen people.
Kurdish opposition groups have denied Tehran’s allegations that they smuggled weapons into Iran, and said their involvement was limited to standing in solidarity with protesters, especially in the Kurdish-speaking regions of Iran, and raising awareness globally. Iran has continued to pressure Iraq to enforce stricter border controls. The topic was broached again during al-Sudani’s visit to Tehran, officials said. Iraq has deployed specialized border forces to the area near its border with Iran. The forces are made up mainly of Kurdish soldiers to avoid tensions with the government of Iraq’s northern, semi-autonomous Kurdish region. “Iran is now facing a real crisis,” said Ihsan al-Shammari, an Iraqi political analyst. Iran, he said, is attempting to scapegoat other countries and groups, “in order to convince the Iranian people that the crisis is the result of foreign interference.”

Analysis: US leaves door open for Iran nuclear diplomacy
Reuters/December 19/2022
For nearly two years the United States has tried and failed to negotiate a revival of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal yet Washington and its European allies refuse to close the door to diplomacy. Their reasons reflect the danger of alternative approaches, the unpredictable consequences of a military strike on Iran, and the belief that there is still time to alter Tehran’s course: even if it is inching toward making fissile material it is not there yet, nor has it mastered the technology to build a bomb, according to officials. “I think that we do not have a better option than the JCPOA to ensure that Iran does not develop nuclear weapons,” Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said last week in Brussels after a meeting of EU officials, referring to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action under which Tehran reined in its nuclear program in return for relief from economic sanctions. “We have to continue engaging as much as possible in trying to revive this deal.”The uphill climb to revive the pact has grown steeper this year. Iran has brutally cracked down on popular protests, Iranian drones have allegedly made their way to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine and Tehran has accelerated its nuclear program, all of which raise the political price to giving Iran sanctions relief. “Every day you see more and more pundits saying this is the worst time for reviving the deal and we should just be putting pressure on the wretched regime there,” said Robert Einhorn, a nonproliferation expert at the Brookings Institution think tank. “There is a kind of resignation, even among the strong proponents of revival. Their hearts would be for paying the political price for a revival, but their heads tell them it would be really tough,” he added.
90 percent enrichment a red line?
In 2018 former US President Donald Trump reneged on the 2015 deal that, in a key provision, limited Tehran’s enrichment of uranium to a purity of 3.67 percent, far below the 90 percent considered bomb grade. Trump reimposed US sanctions on Iran, leading Tehran to resume previously banned nuclear work and reviving US, European and Israeli fears that Iran may seek an atomic bomb. Iran denies any such ambition. Iran is now enriching uranium to 60 percent, including at Fordow, a site buried under a mountain, making it harder to destroy through bombardment. Obtaining fissile material is considered the greatest obstacle to making a nuclear weapon but there are others, notably the technical challenge of designing a bomb. A US intelligence estimate disclosed in late 2007 assessed with high confidence that Iran was working to develop nuclear weapons until the fall of 2003, when it halted the weapons work.
Diplomats said they believed Iran had not begun enriching to 90 percent, which they said they viewed as a red line. “If Iran were to clearly restart its military program and enrich at 90 percent then the entire debate changes in the United States, Europe and Israel,” said a Western diplomat, saying the diplomatic path would remain open unless that happened. US politicians have grown more hostile to cutting a deal because of Iran’s ruthless crackdown on protests that began after a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, died in September in the custody of Iran’s morality police.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has intensified sanctions against Iran in recent months, targeting Chinese entities facilitating sales of Iranian crude and penalizing Iranian officials for human rights abuses. Still, even though negotiations are stalled Enrique Mora, the European diplomat who coordinates the nuclear talks, “keeps talking to all sides,” said a senior Biden administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity. “We will continue with the pressure while keeping the door open for a return to diplomacy,” US special envoy for Iran Robert Malley told reporters in Paris last month, adding that if Iran crossed “a new threshold in its nuclear program, obviously the response will be different.” He did not elaborate. Iran has linked a revival of the deal to the closure of investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) into uranium traces at three sites. The United States and its allies have not agreed to that condition.
Diplomacy may live even if JCPOA dies
Several Western diplomats said they did not believe there was any imminent consideration of military action against Iran and suggested a strike could simply reinforce any Iranian desire to obtain nuclear weapons and risk Iranian retaliation. “I do not think ... anybody is envisaging a military option in the near-term,” said the Western diplomat. “The solution isn’t going to be military and I don’t hear a lot of people calling for one.”A third diplomat said he thought it practically impossible for Israel to bomb Iran without Western support. Even if the 2015 nuclear deal cannot be resurrected, the senior Biden administration official said other diplomatic solutions might be possible. “Whether, when and how the JCPOA can be revived is a difficult question,” he said. “But even if, at some point, the JCPOA were to die, that would not mean that diplomacy would be buried at the same time.”

Iranian taxi driver tortured before death, examination after exhumation reveals
Arab News/December 20, 2022
LONDON: The family of an Iranian man who died in police custody said an examination carried out after his body was exhumed found signs of severe torture.
Hamed Salahshoor, 23, was declared dead on Nov. 26, four days after he was detained by authorities for allegedly taking part in protests. His family was told he had suffered a heart attack. They said his body showed signs of severe head trauma and that he might have undergone surgery. Salahshoor, who worked as a taxi driver, had reportedly received “good news” shortly before his death about a successful job application. A source close to the family told BBC Persian: “A few hours before his arrest, Hamed received the good news that he had got a job at the Ministry of Oil.”He called his mother to tell her but later that day his taxi was stopped by authorities between the cities of Izeh and Isfahan, and he was detained. On Nov. 30, his father was forced to sign a document saying his son had died of a heart attack, Salahshoor’s cousins told the BBC. They added that security forces had threatened other members of the family and they were forbidden from holding a public funeral.The cousins said that the funeral took place at night, 18 miles from Izeh, with only Salahshoor’s parents present. The family had the body exhumed the following day. The source told the BBC: “His face was smashed. His nose, jaw and chin were broken. His torso, from his neck to his navel and over his kidneys, was stitched up. “They buried Hamed with his clothes and shoes on. His body was not straight. And they claim they are Muslims.” Salahshoor is just one of at least 502 people believed to have died at the hands of the regime since widespread public protests began in September, following the death of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini. She died in police custody three days after she was detained by the country’s morality police for improperly wearing her hijab. As many as 18,450 people have been arrested. A small number have already been executed and many more face the death penalty for their parts in the protests. Torture and other forms of ill-treatment of the detained reportedly are commonplace. “I’d never been beaten this much in the 19 years of my life but to the last minute I did not express remorse and I did not cry,” said 19-year-old Yalda Aghafazli, who was detained in October, following her release the following month. She was found dead at her home on Nov. 18. The cause of death has yet to be confirmed. Another young protester, 16-year-old Arshia Emamgholizadeh, committed suicide six days after being released in November. A source told the BBC he was tortured and given pills by authorities while in detention. Seyed Mohammed Hosseini, a prisoner on death row, has also been severely tortured, according to his lawyer. “He was beaten while tied up and blindfolded, he was tasered and beaten on the soles of his feet with a metal rod,” Ali Sharifzadeh Ardakani said on Monday.

Four Iranian security personnel killed in southeast Iran, IRNA says
DUBAI/Reuters/December 19, 2022
Four members of Iran's Revolutionary Guards were killed in the country's southeast and the killers fled to neighbouring Pakistan after coming under fire, the official IRNA news agency reported on Monday. IRNA gave no further details about the incident in the Saravan area of Sistan-Baluchistan province, scene of some of the deadliest unrest during Iran's nationwide protests, and a region where security forces clash often with drug smugglers. Citing a Revolutionary Guards statement, IRNA said three of the dead were members of the Basij, a militia affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards that has been widely deployed during a state crackdown against protesters. "The perpetrators of attack ... fled to Pakistan after receiving heavy fire," IRNA reported, citing a statement issued by the Guards. The impoverished Sistan-Baluchistan province is home to the Baluchi minority, an ethnic group which follows Sunni Islam rather than the Shi'ite Islam of Iran's clerical leaders and has long complained of discrimination by the authorities. The provincial capital, Zahedan, was scene of some of the deadliest unrest during the wave of nationwide protests ignited by Mahsa Amini's death in morality police custody, when security forces killed at least 66 people in a crackdown on Sept. 30, according to Amnesty International. The unrest, in which demonstrators from all walks of life have called for the fall of Iran's ruling theocracy, has posed one of the biggest challenges to the Shi'ite-ruled Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution. A Baluchi militant group, Jaish al Adl, has previously mounted attacks on Iranian security forces in the area. Iranian authorities say the group operates from safe havens in Pakistan. According to activist HRANA news agency, 502 protesters and 62 members of security forces had been killed as of Dec. 18 during the unrest ignited by Amini's death.

Iran says Jordan summit 'good opportunity' for nuclear talks
Agence France Presse/December 19, 2022
Iran's foreign minister said Monday that a summit to take place this week in Jordan is a "good opportunity" for negotiations aimed at restoring the 2015 nuclear accord. On-off talks to revive the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), started in April last year between Iran and France, Germany, Britain, Russia and China directly, and the United States indirectly. But the indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran, mediated by the European Union, have stalled for several months with the Islamic republic facing protests over the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin. "Jordan (visit) is a good opportunity for us to complete these discussions," Iran's top diplomat Hossein Amir-Abdollahian told reporters in Tehran. His comment came a day before Jordan on Tuesday hosts the "Baghdad II" conference, bringing together Iraq, France and the main players in the Middle East including rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to defuse regional tensions through dialogue. Amir-Abdollahian and European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell will be among the officials at the meeting along the Dead Sea. "I hope that according to the approach of the Americans in the last three months, we will see a change of approach and the American side will behave realistically," Amir-Abdollahian stressed. "I clearly say to the Americans that they must choose between hypocrisy and the request to reach an agreement and the US return to the JCPOA," he added. The 2015 agreement gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program to guarantee that Tehran could not develop a nuclear weapon -- something it has always denied wanting to do. But the US unilateral withdrawal from the accord in 2018 under then-president Donald Trump and the reimposition of biting economic sanctions prompted Iran to begin rolling back on its own commitments.

Three Jordanian policemen killed during raid: Statement
Reuters/19 December ,2022
Three Jordanian police were killed on Monday as they raided a hideout of militants suspected of gunning down an officer during riots in the southern city of Maan, police and security sources said. One suspect was killed, nine others were arrested and a large cache of weapons was found in the operation near the desert city, police said. The three officers were “martyred in a raid on a terrorist sleeper cell that holds Takfiri ideology,” the police statement said, referring to militants who accuse Muslims who don’t follow their beliefs of being apostates. The raid took place four days after unrest over fuel price rises boiled over into riots in Maan and several cities across southern Jordan, in some of the worse unrest seen there in years. A senior policeman was shot dead on Thursday evening as security forces clashed with crowds. Security sources, who asked not to be named, said there was evidence that the group raided on Monday followed the ideology of ISIS and were trying to exploit the unrest to destabilize the country. The government has vowed to take tough steps and deploy more anti-riot police against people who protest violently against a squeeze in living conditions. Police have said more than 40 security personnel were wounded in the clashes where protesters smashed cars, burnt tires and mounted road blocks to close a highway. The authorities said they have arrested 44 people in connection with the unrest and more than 200 suspects were wanted in connection with the troubles. The unrest and a string of other attacks have shaken Jordan, which was comparatively unscathed by the uprisings, civil wars and militant violence that have swept the region since 2011.

Russia's Wagner Group officers hide in cover and watch with drones as 'expendable' troops are sent to die in Ukraine, UK intel says
Business Insider/December 19, 2022
The Wagner Group paramilitary, known for brutality, is fighting on behalf of Russia in Ukraine.
Per a UK intel update on the Donetsk region, even low-level officers are far from combat, watching. It said they issue harsh commands to troops, often ex-prisoners, and send them to die from afar. In an intelligence update on Wednesday, the UK's Ministry of Defence said the notorious Wagner Group paramilitary is likely protecting its officers letting them stay far from combat and lead via drone.Instead, the ministry said, the private militia relies on "expendable" troops, often recruited straight from prisons, to march into harm's way.
Wagner is one of the many feuding factions carrying out Russia's invasion of Ukraine alongside its main armed forces. It is led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who got close to the halls of power in the Kremlin by providing catering for its events. The UK update said his Wagner militia was taking a "major role in attritional combat" in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region. Its tactics there involve commanders remaining under cover to "give orders over radios, informed by video feeds" from drones. It described the orders given as simplistic and inflexible: a map with a route drawn on it which recruits have to follow. Sometimes they get help from artillery and armored vehicles, the update said, and sometimes they don't. "Wagner operatives who deviate from their assault routes without authorization are likely being threatened with summary execution," the update said.
UK officials presented this as a way to "make use of a large number of poorly trained convicts it has recruited." "These brutal tactics aim to conserve Wagner's rare assets of experienced commanders and armored vehicles, at the expense of the more readily available convict recruits, which the organization assesses as expendable," it added. Prigozhin, was seen traveling to prisons and penal colonies in September to recruit soldiers after Russian troops suffered major losses in Ukraine. He told the prisoners that even serious crimes would be forgiven in exchange for fighting in Ukraine — but that anyone who deserted would be killed. The group, which has been repeatedly accused of war crimes and human rights abuses, has long been active in Syria and multiple African countries where Russia is seeking to project its power. Since fighting in Ukraine, the group has been forced to lower its standards in order to replenish its ranks.
"Very limited training is made available to new recruits," the British Ministry of Defense said in a July 18 assessment, adding that the trend "will highly likely impact on the future operational effectiveness of the group and will reduce its value as a prop to the regular Russian forces."

Kremlin: Russia still considering response to oil price cap - TASS
Reuters/December 19, 2022
The Kremlin said on Monday it was still considering what measures it would adopt in response to the West's imposition of a $60-a-barrel price cap on Russia's oil exports, the state-run TASS news agency reported. Moscow had originally planned to publish a presidential decree outlining its response - including a possible ban on selling oil to countries that comply with the cap - last week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had told reporters. Officials including President Vladimir Putin have heavily criticised the move and vowed to block exports to those that observe the cap, but Peskov said on Monday Russia was still weighing up other options. "There is some groundwork that has been put down on paper, but there are also additional proposals that are being considered and discussed," he told reporters on Monday. "We still have the task of working out what measures will best suit our interests. The work is ongoing, but it is close to completion." The price cap, imposed by the United States, European Union and Australia, bans companies from providing insurance or logistics for Russia's seaborne oil exports where the price paid is above $60 a barrel. The EU - which previously accounted for almost half of Russia's crude and petroleum exports - has separately imposed its own embargo on Russian oil, which it says will reduce purchases by 90%. Russia's Urals crude blend has been trading at a steep discount to the global benchmark Brent since Russia invaded Ukraine, and most recently below $60 cap, according to Russian government data. Despite the EU cutting imports, oil remains Russia's main export and source of government revenue.

Kyiv says Russian 'kamikaze' drone flies over South Ukraine nuclear plant
KYIV/Reuters/December 19, 2022
The Ukrainian atomic energy agency accused Russia on Monday of flouting nuclear safety by sending a "kamikaze" drone over part of the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant in the Mykolaiv region just after midnight. Energoatom said the Iranian-made Shahed drone had been detected at 00:46 early Monday over the station and said it was calling on the international nuclear community to protect atomic sites from the risks of war. "This is an absolutely unacceptable violation of nuclear and radiation safety," Energoatom wrote on the Telegram messaging app.Invading Russian forces currently occupy another Ukrainian nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhzhia complex, Europe's largest, near front lines in Ukraine's southeast. Talks are ongoing to establish a safety zone around the plant. Both sides have accused the another of shelling the Zaporizhzhia site and Ukraine has said Russian forces are pressuring its Ukrainian staff, including through violence, to sign contracts with a subsidiary of Russia's atomic agency. Moscow is not known to have commented directly on these accusations. In October, President Vladimir Putin issued a decree transferring the Zaporizhzhia plant from Energoatom to a subsidiary of Rosatom, a move Kyiv said amounted to theft.

Putin lands in Belarus for talks amid fears of new assault on Ukraine
Tom Balmforth/Reuters/December 19, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarus on Monday along with his defence and foreign ministers, fanning fears in Kyiv that he intends to pressure his ex-Soviet ally to join a fresh ground offensive that would open a new front against Ukraine. Putin, whose troops have been driven back in Ukraine's north, northeast and south since invading in February, is taking a more public role in the war. He visited his operation headquarters on Friday to sound out military commanders. His trip for talks with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was his first to Minsk since 2019 - before the COVID pandemic and a wave of pro-democracy protests in 2020 that Lukashenko crushed with strong support from the Kremlin. Russian forces used Belarus as a launch pad for their abortive attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv in February, and there has been Russian and Belarusian military activity there for months.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian news agencies that Belarus was Russia's "number one ally" but that suggestions Moscow aims to pressure Minsk into joining what it calls its "special military operation" were "stupid and unfounded fabrications".Ukrainian joint forces commander Serhiy Nayev had said he believed the talks would address "further aggression against Ukraine and the broader involvement of the Belarusian armed forces in the operation against Ukraine, in particular, in our opinion, also on the ground". Ukraine's top general, Valery Zaluzhniy, told the Economist last week that Russia was preparing 200,000 fresh troops for a major offensive that could come from the east, south or even from Belarus as early as January, but more likely in spring. Moscow and Minsk have set up a joint military unit in Belarus and held numerous exercises. Three Russian warplanes and an airborne early warning and control aircraft were deployed to Belarus last week. But Lukashenko, a pariah in the West who relies heavily on Moscow for support, has repeatedly said Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine. Foreign diplomats say committing Belarusian troops would be deeply unpopular at home.
SANCTIONS
Already, Western sanctions have made it hard for Belarus to ship potash fertilisers, its top export, via Baltic ports. Western military analysts say Lukashenko's small army lacks the strength and combat experience to make a big difference - but that by forcing Ukraine to commit forces to its north it could leave it more exposed to Russian assaults elsewhere. The Pentagon said on Dec. 13 that it did not see "any type of impending cross-border activity by Belarus at this time".Putin's visit was announced on Friday after a surprise Dec. 3 trip to Belarus by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, where he signed an agreement with his Belarusian counterpart whose details were not disclosed. Adding to the ominous mood music, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, one of the few officials in Lukashenko's government with any rapport with the West, died suddenly last month. No official cause of death was announced.
His successor, Sergei Aleinik, met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Monday. Lukashenko said he and Putin would discuss a long-running effort to integrate their respective former Soviet republics in a supranational Union State. The talks are seen by the Belarus opposition as a vehicle for a creeping Russian annexation. Belarus's state news agency, BelTA, said they would answer questions from reporters after their talks. At a government meeting after the talks with Putin were announced, Lukashenko unexpectedly said that any ceding of sovereignty would be a betrayal of the Belarusian people.
"Particularly after these large-scale negotiations, everyone will say: 'That's it, there are no longer any authorities in Belarus, the Russians are already walking around and running the country'," Lukashenko said. "I want to again underline this in particular: No one other than us runs Belarus."He said he would discuss economic cooperation, energy supplies, defence and security with Putin. Russian agencies quoted Peskov as saying "no one is pressuring anyone to integrate".

Russian military releases propaganda pop song fantasizing about its nukes wiping out NATO and the US
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/December 19, 2022
A branch of Russia's defense ministry released a pop song celebrating its vast nuclear arsenal.
The song celebrates the power of the "Sarmat" missile, also known as the "Son of Satan."
As its conventional invasion of Ukraine faltered, Russia has repeatedly flexed its nuclear might.
The Russian military released a pop song Saturday fantasizing about wiping out NATO and the US with its nuclear weapons.
The song and music video celebrates the Sarmat ICBM, affectionately referred to as "Sarmatushka" in the title.
It is the latest in a series of increasingly overt celebrations of its weapons of mass destruction, which have increased in salience as Russia struggles with its land invasion of Ukraine.
The music video for the song was published by ParkPatriot.media, an arm of the Russian defense ministry focused on propaganda.
It features footage of the Sarmat and what appear to be uniformed Russian soldiers. The fearsome missile can carry large nuclear warheads and has been dubbed the "Son of Satan" for its destructive power. The song is by Denis Maidanov, a popular singer who also serves in the Russian legislature as a part of President Vladimir Putin's United Russia party. He has been a staunch supporter of the war.
The four-and-a-half-minute video of the song celebrates the efforts to construct the missile, which is the latest in Russia's arsenal and is being integrated into its military in 2022.
It shows images of the Sarmat missile being test-fired and, at one point, showed Maidanov watching Putin speak on TV.
"We are carefully placing our Sarmat / Into a steel container / The dashboard is sleeping / The missile is awaiting command. The Russian Sarmat is ready/ To strike our enemy," Maidanov sings in the video, translated by Insider. "It's ready to carry out an order / To turn the enemy into dust," he continues. "It has one joy / To disturb NATO's sleep." Maidanov also says the Sarmat is "looking into the distance ... at the United States."
The song's release coincided with Russia's Strategic Missile Forces Day, dedicated to the units responsible for nuclear weapons.
The missile, which Russia said it successfully tested in April 2022, is expected to carry 10 to 15 individual payloads, each of which can carry several nuclear warheads.
It is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) designed to reach most places on the planet.
Russia's Ministry of Defense did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.
Through the war in Ukraine, Putin has relied on state TV and popular entertainment to project his propaganda onto the Russian population.
Russia has the world's largest arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. Putin has touted his nuclear arsenal on numerous occasions since starting the war in Ukraine, including a speech in September where he insisted he was "not bluffing" about being ready to use them.
Hardline Russian politicians, including former president Dmitry Medvedev, have been more forthright in touting the ability of Russia to wipe out the world with its nukes.
Last week Russia's defense ministry shared a menacing video of an ICBM being loaded into a launch silo, also linked to the strategic-missile-forces day. The ministry said the missile was a "Yars," which has can deliver a nuclear warhead.
However, Russia has taken some steps to nuance its nuclear rhetoric. Earlier this month, Putin said that Russia had not "gone mad" about their use, and would not be the first country to use them, the BBC reported.

Russian President Vladimir Putin joins President Biden in sounding the alarm on the risk of nuclear war — here's what Warren Buffett says about the ‘greatest danger’ facing the world
Jing Pan/MoneyWise/December 19, 2022
Investors often watch the markets and the economy. But in this day and age, you might also want to pay attention to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine — because the consequences could be dire. After Russian officials spoke of using tactical nuclear weapons, U.S. President Joe Biden warned that the risk of nuclear “Armageddon” hasn’t been this high in 60 years.“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” he said at a Democratic fundraiser in October. “He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological and chemical weapons, because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming,” Biden added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “I don’t think there’s any such thing as the ability to easily use tactical nuclear weapons and not end up with Armageddon.”
That’s a scary picture. And what's scarier is that Putin agrees that the risk of nuclear war is increasing. Speaking at a meeting of Russia’s Human Rights Council in December, he didn't rule out the idea of using nuclear weapons first, but said he viewed Russia's nuclear arsenal primarily as a deterrent. "We have a strategy… namely, as a defense, we consider weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons – it is all based around the so-called retaliatory strike,” he said. “That is, when we are struck, we strike in response.”Still, the possibility of nuclear war makes all other problems seem trivial in comparison.
Legendary investor Warren Buffett once called it “the ultimate problem of mankind.”
Warren Buffett is not a doom-and-gloom type of investor. He’s not shy about expressing his seemingly endless optimism over the U.S. economy. But if there’s one threat that keeps the investing legend up at night, it’s most certainly the threat of nuclear war.
“It is the ultimate problem of mankind,” Buffett said at his company Berkshire Hathaway’s annual shareholders meeting back in 2006. “And it will happen someday.”
He explained how weapons have evolved through human civilization. “We've always had people who wish evil on others. Thousands of years ago, if you were psychotic or a religious fanatic or a malcontent, and you wished evil on your neighbor, you picked up a rock and threw it at them, and that was about the damage you could do,” he said. “We went on to bows and arrows and cannons. But since 1945, the potential for inflicting enormous harm on incredible numbers of people has increased at a geometric pace.”
Buffett expressed similar concerns in 2017. “I've been concerned since 1945 when the first atomic bomb was used,” he said during a CNBC interview.“We have developed over these 72 years, since August of 1945, the ability around the world to almost destroy civilization. It's the only real cloud on the horizon.”
What to own in times of crisis
Given this geopolitical crisis and other uncertainties looming in the distance — like an extremely hawkish Fed — it might be tempting to hide out in cash. After all, the stock market has been pummeled in 2022. Buffett doesn’t exactly believe in stashing your savings under the mattress. “The one thing you can be quite sure of is if we went into some very major war, the value of money would go down — that's happened in virtually every war that I'm aware of,” he told CNBC in 2014, the last time Russia invaded Ukraine. “The last thing you'd want to do is hold money during a war.”Of course, consumers have already learned first-hand the risk of holding money over the past year. With rampant inflation, the purchasing power of your cash savings can deteriorate rapidly.
What should investors own then?
Buffett has always believed in owning productive assets. And his suggestion for times of crisis is no different. “You might want to own a farm, you might want to own an apartment house, you might want to own securities.”It’s easy to see the appeal of farmland. Whether boom or bust — or World War III — people still need to eat. These days, it’s also easy to invest in farmland even if you know nothing about farming. Apartment buildings could be another hedge against inflation and uncertainty. Sure, real estate has its cycles, but no matter how much economic growth slows down, people need a place to live. And with real estate prices rising to unaffordable levels in many parts of the country, renting has become the only option for many people. The segment is also becoming increasingly accessible to retail investors. As for securities, Berkshire discloses its holdings every quarter so you can see which stocks the Oracle of Omaha favors.

Exclusive-Russian-annexed Crimea showers Syria with wheat, Ukraine cries foul
Jonathan Saul, Maha El Dahan and Maya Gebeily/LONDON/DUBAI/BEIRUT/Reuters/December 19, 2022
Using a low-profile fleet of ships under U.S. sanctions, Syria has this year sharply increased wheat imports from the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea that Russia annexed from Ukraine, a sign of tightening economic ties between two allies shunned by the West. Wheat sent to Syria from the Black Sea port of Sevastopol in Crimea increased 17-fold this year to just over 500,000 tonnes, previously unreported Refinitiv shipping data shows, to make up nearly a third of the country's total imports of the grain.
With sanctions making it more complicated for Syria and Russia to trade using mainstream sea transport and marine insurance, the two countries are increasingly relying on their own ships to move the grain, including three Syrian vessels that are subject to sanctions imposed by Washington, the data shows.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russian forces invaded more of Ukraine on Feb. 24 and despite military setbacks they still control a swathe of the country's agricultural heartlands of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Both Ukraine and the Russia-installed authorities agree that some grain has been exported from occupied Zaporizhzhia via Crimea. Ukraine though says grain was stolen by the occupiers, a charge Russia denies. Ukraine says at least a part of the grain that passed through Sevastopol was taken from Ukrainian territories after Russia invaded. Ukraine's embassy in Beirut, which has been tracking shipments coming to Syria, estimates that 500,000 tonnes of what it calls plundered Ukrainian grain has arrived in Syria since the invasion, shipped from several ports.
The embassy said these calculations and Ukrainian authorities' allegation that grain was stolen was based on information from field and silo owners in occupied territories, satellite data of truck movements to ports and the tracking of ships. Russia's agriculture and foreign ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment for this story. In May, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described as "fake" the allegations Russia has stolen grain during what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine. Reuters could not independently verify the origin of the wheat being shipped from Crimea or whether the farmers and traders who handled it were paid.
"CRIMEAN HARVEST"
Yevgeny Balitsky, the Moscow-appointed governor of the Russian-occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region said in June that Crimean ports had been used to export grain from Zaporizhzhia. However, he said farmers would be paid via a company set up by his administration, Russia's Interfax news agency reported. Additionally, Crimea's Russia-installed administration said 1.4 million tonnes of wheat by bunker weight were harvested from Crimea's own fields, in comments on social media in August. Ukraine disputes these figures, saying Crimea does not produce nearly that much. "The so-called 'Crimean harvest' includes grain exported from the territory of mainland Ukraine," the Ukrainian agriculture ministry said in a statement in response to Reuters' questions. Prior to the current war, Syria had imported grain from Crimea on previous occasions since Russia took control of the peninsula, Reuters reported. According to the Refinitiv data, Syria imported about 501,800 tonnes of wheat from Sevastopol this year until the end of November, up from about 28,200 tonnes in the whole of 2021. Shipments picked up from May onwards with the largest monthly consignment of 78,600 tonnes in October, according to the data, which is collated from port inspection reports provided by port operators.
RISE OF THE GHOST FLEET
Increasingly, Syria is relying on a fleet of its own cargo ships or Russian-flagged ships to bring in food via government-to-government deals that eschew the usual tender and charter process for moving commodities by sea. Analysis from maritime and commodities data platform Shipfix showed the number of cargo orders – global requests for available ships to transport grains - to Syria fell by two thirds to 54 in the year to Nov. 30 versus the whole of 2021.
Instead, the wheat cargoes are typically moving to Syria's Latakia and Tartus ports on three Syrian ships, according to two grain trade sources familiar with the journey, the Ukrainian embassy in Beirut, other Ukrainian diplomats, and an analysis from Shipfix.
The ships - the Laodicea, the Finikia and the Souria - are owned by the state-owned Syrian General Authority for Maritime Transport, according to Equasis and the U.S. Treasury. All three have been sanctioned since 2015 by the United States for their alleged role in the conflict in Syria over the last decade.
Ships that have been designated are typically less well maintained and older due to prohibitions on accessing top tier insurance and certification services. They are able to operate more easily between countries also under sanctions, a possible explanation for the rising trade between the two allies.
Russia has repeatedly complained that the sanctions imposed on it this year have limited its ability to ship grains to countries across Africa and the Arab world that rely on its produce to feed their people.
The thicket of Western sanctions on Syria and Russia don't formally target food but can in practice complicate such trade, in part because they make it difficult for some grain-trading houses to do business with them, especially due to financing constraints.
Syrian maritime authorities did not respond to Reuters requests for comment about the vessels.
Some shipments also arrived on Russian-flagged vessels, including the Mikhail Nenashev, Matros Pozynich and Matros Koshka, which Equasis, a shipping database, shows are owned by a subsidiary of a Russian state-owned company called United Shipbuilding Corporation.
Washington, the European Union and Britain imposed sanctions on the United Shipbuilding Corporation in April after the Russian invasion.
United Shipbuilding Corporation did not respond to a request for comment.
CLOSER TO MOSCOW
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government began to rely on grain imports when the country's civil war dealt a blow to domestic harvests that once produced enough for the country's staple of subsidised flat bread as well as surpluses for export. More recently, drought has made the crop even smaller. Russia has backed Syria's government for decades and since 2015 helped Assad's troops recapture most of the country from opposition fighters. The sanctions and more than a decade of conflict mean Syria is also short of cash, potentially making Russia's relatively cheaper wheat attractive. During a visit to Crimea in January, Syria's economy minister said his country needed 1.5 million tonnes of wheat imports, with Russia providing the majority.
Actual imports will be close to that, according to one trade source familiar with Syria's grain purchases who said the harvest this year was the worst in Syria's history. Refinitiv data shows all but a fraction of the imports were from Russia and territory it controls, unlike previous years, when Syria augmented supplies with purchases from other countries including Romania.
The first grain trade source said at least one million tonnes of grain imports from Russia during 2021 and 2022 had been financed through a line of credit extended by Moscow to Damascus. Last year, Russia's deputy prime minister said Moscow had provided a loan to Syria in part for food. Syrian government officials and the state grains agency Hoboob did not respond to requests for information for this story. Russian authorities have not disclosed grain supplies to Syria for a number of years.

'Offside': Macron stirs critics with World Cup final role
Naharnet/December 19/2022
From leaping from his seat in the VIP box to consoling crestfallen players on the pitch, French President Emmanuel Macron delivered a wide-ranging performance at the World Cup final that was not to everyone's taste. The 44-year-old was an unmissable presence at the game at the Lusail stadium in Qatar on Sunday, even making an appearance in the team's changing room to deliver an emotional post-game pep talk. "You're an amazing team," Macron told the players, pounding his fist in his hand for effect. "No other team would have got here and come back on two occasions and being so close to winning it. "You had the heart, the hunger, the desire and the talent to get here and that's why I wanted to come and say thank you," he added, according to a video posted on his social media accounts. France were 2-0 behind until the 80th minute before a quickfire double by Kylian Mbappe levelled the game. In extra time, Argentina went ahead 3-2 thanks to a second goal from Lionel Messi before another Mbappe penalty led to a shoot-out to settle the final. Macron strode onto the pitch after the game, notably grabbing Mbappe in front of the TV cameras and holding the striker's head to his chest. He talked animatedly to the distraught player who showed little inclination to exchange pleasantries with the head of state on the pitch and barely acknowledged him. "It was a bit disturbing to see him stuck like glue to Mbappe," the far right opposition MP Sebastien Chenu told the LCI channel.
'Over the top'?
The famously tactile leader also stood next to the emir of Qatar in the line of VIPs as they handed over awards and medals to the players in the closing ceremony. "We must not politicize sport," the incoming leader of the ultra-left France Unbowed party Manuel Bompard, wrote ironically on Twitter, using a phrase used by the president himself on November 11. Macron had made the comments about the World Cup when asked about Qatar hosting the competition despite its human rights record. "Macron did he go over the top?" asked the BFM news channel, adding he had acted like France's "12th man" throughout the evening. Macron is a passionate follower of the national team who also made headlines in 2018 leaping to his feet in the stands as France won the World Cup in Russia. "The president is not on the pitch," read a commentary in the SoFoot.com website under the headline "Macron, miles offside". "His role and position should not be seen like this, at these sort of moments which, whether tragic or glorious, belong only to the players and maybe to the staff," it added. The president also travelled to Qatar to watch France beat Morocco in the semi-final on Wednesday, after which he made another changing-room appearance. As the team travelled back to Paris on Monday, the president travelled to the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, which is anchored off the coast of Egypt, for the traditional Christmas meal with French troops. Sports Minister Amelie Oudea-Castera told France Inter radio he would formally congratulate the players in the New Year.

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The Iranian theocracy’s downfall is a goal worth working toward
Reuel Marc Gerecht/ Washington Examiner/December 19/2022
Fate is sometimes kind to America. Such merciful intervention happened last summer when Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, rejected the Biden administration’s effort to revive former President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal , the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It would have been a very bad look for the United States to be lifting sanctions and releasing billions of dollars to the clerical regime while it was killing, beating, and imprisoning young women and girls protesting for freedom.
It’s not crystal clear, however, that the White House and the State Department appreciate their good fortune. Comments by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Iran envoy, Rob Malley, suggest that President Joe Biden’s Iran team would still go to Vienna, ready to sign, if Khamenei would just say “yes.” Although the administration would surely be thrilled to see the theocracy fall, the White House view likely aligns with the Central Intelligence Agency’s assessment: the current Iranian rebellion isn’t regime-threatening.
Team Biden still wants to hope that the supreme leader will come to his senses — after the regime crushes its domestic enemies. If Khamenei won’t revive the deal, which loses most of its utility in 2025, perhaps he would still agree to something less. Even with the North Korean failure of “freeze-for-freeze” just behind us, it’s not inconceivable Biden could offer a Persian equivalent. The administration, and the Democratic Party as a whole, don’t yet seem able to let go of arms control as a prime directive.
They really should. They don’t have anything to lose. The president has never conveyed a serious intention to attack the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites, and the regime has methodically crossed red lines since an Iranian opposition group publicly revealed the nuclear weapons program in 2002. (The CIA, like Western European intelligence services and Mossad, knew the theocracy had a clandestine atomic program earlier; they just didn’t know how far Iran had come.) Why the Left even pretends that it could attack Iran as a last resort if diplomacy fails when it has exuberantly excoriated for years those who have suggested that military strikes are, or at least were, viable, reveals impressive disingenuousness if nothing else.
For 20 years, the pattern has remained: Tehran advances and we look the other way, defaulting to diplomacy, sanctions, or one but not the other to slow the speed and range of further progress. Occasionally, Washington threatens something more severe, always letting the clerical regime know that the military option is, like water in a mirage, just over the horizon.
The Iranian people have given us another chance to stop this insanity — that is, doing the same actions over and over again and expecting a better result. We ought to admit to ourselves, even if our elected leaders understandably decline to do so publicly, that there is only one way the Iranian nuke now gets aborted: regime change.
This has been a dirty phrase in Washington, on both the Left and Right, since the Second Iraq War went south. I and my frequent writing partner, Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations, have been regularly pilloried as “the regime-change boys” for simply pointing out what should have been obvious to anyone reading and listening to the Persian pouring out of Iran since the reform movement was crushed in 1999: an ever-growing majority of the Iranian people want to off the theocracy.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that Washington needs to embrace some massive effort to topple the mollahs. Whatever the United States does to aid the Iranian people — if it can decide to do anything at all — needs to have bipartisan support, especially if any aspect of that aid is clandestinely delivered. The age of large-scale CIA covert-action programs is probably past. Bipartisan support on the critical committees in Congress is obligatory if any program of scale is to take off and last. Congressmen and their staff need to appreciate the common cause, vote on the money, and not leak.
And we ought to be able to come together on two fundamentals: The Iranian people — the Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Baluch, and Arabs, to name the big ethnicities — are trying to unite against their Islamist overlords. They are also trying to take another run at popular sovereignty. Iranians have been trying to put institutional, constitutional checks on arbitrary power for nearly 120 years. They have explicitly yearned for democracy since the fall of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979. That yearning was co-opted and betrayed by Iran’s theocrats; it remains a driving force behind the nationwide protests that started in September.
Iranians’ failure so far to establish representative government shouldn’t dishearten Westerners about the prospects for future success. European democracies repeatedly floundered before they finally got it right — for some, only after the Yanks intervened. Democracy-seeking Iranians have too often had to act against a dismissive, even resistant West, which could feel comfortable with monarchical despotism or accepting of an “authentic” religious dictatorship.
The second fundamental is this: an Iranian democracy would be a blessing for the Middle East. Its arrival could well produce a bigger shock wave than the Islamic Revolution in 1979.
If Democrats and Republicans can come together on that at least, and adjust their rhetoric to say unequivocally and loudly that the Iranian people have earned the right to elect leaders who reflect their mores, that would be a huge step forward for Washington and the Iranian people.
We can then fight among ourselves about whether aid to the rebellion might help, hurt, or be utterly irrelevant.
*Reuel Marc Gerecht, a former Iranian-targets officer in the Central Intelligence Agency, is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Follow him on Twitter @ReuelMGerecht. FDD is a nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Iranian regime left feeling perplexed by China
Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami/Arab News/December 19, 2022
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia received an intense backlash from Iranians, but the most prominent reaction by Iranians and government officials was to the visit of China’s deputy prime minister to Tehran last Tuesday. This article will review how Iranian media outlets covered this visit.
Jomhouri-e Eslami newspaper mentioned that China’s support for the Gulf states, particularly when it came to the UAE’s claim on three islands — Abu Musa, Lesser Tunb and Greater Tunb — received scathing criticism from Iranian politicians and experts. Iranians seriously asked China’s government to apologize and change its position. However, Beijing did not change its position during the visit of its deputy prime minister.
Donyaye-Sanat said that an Iranian official in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, when explaining the purpose of the visit, said that Iran had prepared for the visit a long time ago, adding that it had nothing to do with the latest developments — referring to the Chinese president’s visit to Riyadh.
Another Iranian newspaper, Mardom Salari, said that, when the visit of China’s deputy prime minister was announced, it was expected that Iranian government officials would take a stronger stance on the positions adopted by China’s president during his visit to Saudi Arabia. However, these expectations were mere pipe dreams, the newspaper added. Further, it argued that the Iranian government adopted a lackluster position on China when it called the “summoning” of the ambassador to Tehran as a “meeting,” unlike its commonly used rhetoric with the diplomatic representatives of other countries.
As for Shargh newspaper, the deputy prime minister’s visit was a Chinese gesture to ease Iran’s discontent; and it could be viewed as a good move from China after Xi’s trip to Saudi Arabia — which stirred criticism in Tehran.
Ebtekar newspaper said that China had tilted toward the Arab countries because of Iran’s isolation. Beijing, according to Ebtekar, was no longer motivated to entrench its relations with Iran, given the fact that the nuclear deal has not yet been revived. With another interpretation, Etemad newspaper argued that the new Chinese approach aims to expand “China’s regime” across the region and the world; and it won’t hesitate to trigger tensions if needed. China only takes into account its national interests and the strategic capabilities of its counterparts.
Iran newspaper blamed the government of former President Hassan Rouhani because it did not pay attention to the rising powers and Asian countries. Accordingly, the strategic partnership between the two countries had been shelved for years. Rokna News Agency explained that the strategic patience of the current Ebrahim Raisi government toward the Chinese president’s latest move was because Beijing is a strategic partner to Iran.
Ebtekar newspaper said that China had tilted toward the Arab countries because of Iran’s isolation.
Unlike the aforementioned scathing criticism of China, Quds newspaper said that the three-day visit by China’s high-level delegation to Tehran mainly focused on following up the implementation of the Iran-China 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement. Arman Melli newspaper agreed, saying that the two countries are planning to take major steps toward implementing their strategic cooperation. EcoIran website stressed that the visit of China’s deputy prime minister to Tehran had been prepared before and was not related to China’s newly stated position on the three islands.
The conflicting positions inside Iran reflect the complexities of Iranian domestic politics and the fact that the country is suffering political and diplomatic isolation, with even its closest friends such as China and Russia distancing themselves from Tehran.
Pirouz Mojtahedzadeh, an Iranian academic and political analyst, in an article published in Arman-e Melli, said that Russia does not need Iran’s military technology, even though Moscow got Tehran to participate in its adventure in Ukraine. As a consequence, Iran has endured high political and economic costs in the international arena. Some countries that have condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine consider Iran to be a partner in this crime.
China, through its relations with Iran, aims to reap the maximum political, economic and geopolitical benefits from Tehran. Although it is true that China is mainly looking at the host of economic benefits that it can secure from the economic agreements it has concluded with Iran, it is also aiming to make Tehran a subordinate country, politically and geopolitically. In the same vein, Mohammad-Hossein Malaek, a former Iranian ambassador to Beijing, said in an interview with ISNA that the 25-year agreement remains a dead letter. “We have to be realistic and announce the true relations’ level to the public,” he said.
Malaek added that the Chinese work thoroughly in international politics and they have plans to be the premier economy in the world. However, Russia’s adventure in Ukraine and China’s support for Moscow in the initial stages of the attack contributed to Beijing losing its international momentum and the West turned against it.
As for China’s declining interest in Iran, the Iranian diplomat said that, when reviewing the internal developments in Iran and the various assessments and surveys on Iran-China relations, he feels that Iran will not have anything in China in 10 to 15 years’ time. This is why China adopted an anti-Iran position in Saudi Arabia. Abdullah Kenji, editor-in-chief of Hamshahri newspaper, said: “It is normal for China to kick us. It wants to earn the trust of Arabs and not to provoke America.”
The Iranian regime has become quite fragile in front of its own people and the whole world, with its position worsened by the long-standing wave of protests across the country. If the regime does not tackle its internal and external crises as soon as possible, it will pay even higher costs and the whole political system may not be able to resist its inevitable, deadly fate.
• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is president of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami

How US political scene has shifted
Aziz Huq and Tom Ginsburg/Arab News/December 19, 2022
Last month’s midterm elections in the US were surprising in more ways than one. The Democrats’ unexpectedly strong performance has not only shifted the political terrain for the next two years, but has also revealed that a substantial number of voters across party lines, many of them young, are deeply concerned about the fate of American democracy. However, no one has offered these voters a credible agenda for improving and strengthening self-governance.
Popular support for defending democratic norms was already evident in pre-election surveys. In a Pew Research Trust poll published a week before the vote, 70 percent of respondents ranked “the future of democracy in the United States” as “very important” to them, compared to 79 percent who cited the economy as a major concern. Similarly, an NBC exit poll found that 68 percent of voters described American democracy as “threatened,” as opposed to “secure.”
Even some Republicans prioritize democracy over political power. Recent research by the Polarization Research Lab — a joint project of Dartmouth College, the University of Pennsylvania and Stanford University — demonstrates that disregard for democratic norms within the Grand Old Party is limited to Donald Trump’s “MAGA” faction. It is no surprise, then, that Trump’s reelection campaign announcement failed to excite establishment Republicans. Even Fox News covered only part of it, while the conservative New York Post was withering, running the line “Florida Man Makes Announcement” on its cover and burying the story on Page 26.
The concern for American democracy is particularly prevalent among younger cohorts. A Harvard Kennedy School exit poll found that, for voters aged 18 to 29, only the economy and abortion rights were more important issues than “protecting democracy.” These voters were likely pivotal to the Democratic Senate victories in Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, as well as the gubernatorial win in Wisconsin. Strikingly, just 5 percent of young people described American democracy as “healthy.”
Young Americans’ democratic zeal has surprised some observers. An influential 2017 study by Yascha Mounk and Roberto Foa suggested that support for democracy was ebbing among young people around the world. Could it be that five years of observing democracies under strain has made younger voters more attuned to the dangers?
Whatever the cause of the midterms’ democratic dividend, capitalizing on it does not seem to be a high priority. Before the election, President Joe Biden emphasized the importance of “standing up” for democracy. It was a decent pep talk, but it offered no clear agenda for mitigating the risk of democratic backsliding. In December 2021, the Biden administration released a fact sheet touting a grab bag of policies to protect US democracy. Certainly, some of the measures — from increasing broadband access to “reminding schools” of their obligation to teach civics — would help to protect democratic norms in the long term. The overall impression left by the administration’s list, however, is that an overworked White House intern ransacked to-do lists issued by pro-Democratic think tanks.
Whatever the cause of the midterms’ democratic dividend, capitalizing on it does not seem to be a high priority.
But the threat is too great to do so little. While many adherents of Trump’s so-called Big Lie that the 2020 election was “stolen” were defeated in the midterms and shut out of the state offices where they could do the most damage, American democracy remains in peril. Given that numerous election deniers won state and federal elections and remain in Congress, there is no reason to believe that the danger of political violence has abated. Nor can we trust that election losers will not try to use the federal courts to flip elections in their favor, as Trump did in 2020.
Yet, when it comes to concrete legislative efforts, it is the advocates of the Big Lie who have been most active, cynically exploiting — if not inventing — concerns about election integrity to push for new voter suppression laws in 19 states. Perversely, the most effective legal reforms executed in the name of protecting democracy today are actively seeking to undermine it.
Given the sophistication of anti-democratic forces at home and abroad, the Biden administration must move, both unilaterally and through Congress, to bolster democratic institutions. The problem is not a shortage of ideas. Numerous organizations and scholars across the political spectrum have proposed dozens of reform measures. But the window to act will narrow as the 2024 election cycle heats up.
Even without Democratic control of the House of Representatives, the Biden administration can use executive orders to bolster democratic governance. It could strengthen rules against the White House communicating with the Internal Revenue Service about pending or possible investigations, building on the rules that Attorney General Merrick Garland already issued for the Department of Justice in July 2021. It could also shore up the status of inspectors general within the administrative state. It should also introduce new regulations to protect the independence of special prosecutors investigating possible conflicts of interest at the DOJ. It is crucial to prevent a repeat of former Attorney General William Barr’s partisan efforts to bury Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. Barr’s conduct during the final stages of the investigation, from his prematurely conclusory remarks before the report was released to the excessive redactions in the public version, earned him a reprimand from a federal judge.
Democrats could also use Congress’ lame-duck session to reform the Electoral Count Act of 1887 in line with the recent bill introduced by Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican. At the same time, they should also consider targeted legislation addressing a case argued before the Supreme Court earlier this month that could severely destabilize US federal elections.
The case, Moore v. Harper, concerns a previously fringe theory that the constitution grants “independent state legislatures” the exclusive authority to manage federal elections. If the court rules in favor of this approach, legislatures could disregard state constitutions and districting laws and potentially override the popular vote. Congress must use its broad power under Article I of the Constitution to ensure the integrity of elections. The Democrats’ stalled 2019 voting rights bill, HR1 (also known as the For the People Act), should also be mined for provisions that could still win bipartisan support.
Many other countries have clawed their way back from democratic decay. The US midterms showed that most Americans favor strengthening civic institutions. But Democrats — and democratically minded Republicans — must act now. Given the proven popularity of such measures, what is the Biden administration waiting for?
• Aziz Huq, Professor of Law at the University of Chicago, is the author of “The Collapse of Constitutional Remedies” (Oxford University Press, 2021).
• Tom Ginsburg, Professor of International Law and Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, is a research professor at the American Bar Foundation.
Copyright: Project Syndicate

Biden Administration and the Two-State Delusion
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/December 19, 2022
The results of several public opinion polls, including the most recent one, demonstrate that Blinken and his team are either engaging in self-deception or simply fail to understand or see what most Palestinians want: Killing more Jews and the obliteration of Israel.
This is not the first poll to show that a majority of Palestinians oppose the "two-state solution." That is because they are clamoring for a Palestinian state not alongside Israel, but instead of Israel.
The rising popularity of Hamas among the Palestinians is a clear sign that most of them identify with the Islamist group's goal of destroying Israel.
According to the latest poll, if new presidential elections were held today, the Biden administration's favorite Palestinian interlocutor, Mahmoud Abbas, would receive 36% and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would get 54%. In addition, 75% said they want the 87-year-old Abbas to resign.
The Palestinians, in short, are telling Blinken and the Biden administration that they can keep dreaming about the two-state fantasy for as long as they wish, but that they prefer "armed struggle" and terrorism to peace negotiations with Israel.
It would have been a good idea if Blinken had listened to what Hamas leaders clearly said in the past few days during rallies to celebrate the 35th anniversary of the founding of their group.
Marking the anniversary occasion, Hamas issued a statement on December 14 that basically refutes claims by some Westerners that it has become a "moderate" group that is ready to accept the "two-state solution."
Anyone who supports the establishment of a Palestinian state would be paving the way for the Palestinians to use the West Bank and Gaza Strip as launching pads to attack and destroy Israel.
The way for the international community -- starting with the US -- to turn the problem around is through insisting that any aid is strictly conditioned upon the Palestinians abandoning their calls for terrorism... If there is any non-compliance, payments must actually be withheld.... Otherwise, all of the aid that does not "disappear" is openly being used to bankroll terrorism, jihad and killing Jews.
The results of several public opinion polls, including the most recent one, demonstrate what most Palestinians want: Killing more Jews and the obliteration of Israel. The rising popularity of Hamas among the Palestinians is a clear sign that most of them identify with the Islamist group's goal of destroying Israel. Pictured: Hamas gunmen parade on trucks with rockets in a street in Khan Yunis, in the southern Gaza Strip on May 27, 2021.
Days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the Biden administration's commitment to the "two-state solution," the Palestinians responded by repeating their rejection of the idea and their support for more terrorism against Israel.
The Palestinian response came through a public opinion poll published on December 13 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research and statements by the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas that controls the Gaza Strip.
The poll found that 69% of Palestinians believe that the "two-state solution" is no longer practical or feasible. Another 72% believe that the chances for the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years are slim or nonexistent.
The Palestinians, in short, are telling Blinken and the Biden administration that they can keep dreaming about the two-state fantasy for as long as they wish, but that they prefer "armed struggle" and terrorism to peace negotiations with Israel.
When asked about the most effective means of building an independent state, 51% of the Palestinians chose the "armed struggle." Another 55% supported a return to armed confrontations and an intifada (uprising) against Israel.
Even more concerning is that 72% of the Palestinian public said they are in favor of forming terror groups such as the Lions' Den, whose members have carried out shooting attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the northern West Bank over the past few months.
Earlier this month, Blinken said in a speech before the J Street National Conference that the Biden administration will continue to strive for "realizing the enduring goal of two states." He added:
"We support this vision because it's pragmatic. We continue to believe, as the President said on his trip to the Holy land this summer, that two states – based on the 1967 lines, with mutually agreed swaps – remains the best way to achieve our goal of Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace and security."Last month, Blinken reaffirmed the Biden administration's two-state fantasy – especially along the notoriously indefensible 1949 armistice lines, where the fighting at the time just so happened to stop --- in a phone call with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
The results of several public opinion polls, including the most recent one, demonstrate that Blinken and his team are either engaging in self-deception or simply fail to understand or see what most Palestinians want: Killing more Jews and the obliteration of Israel.
This is not the first poll to show that a majority of Palestinians oppose the "two-state solution." That is because they are clamoring for a Palestinian state not alongside Israel, but instead of Israel.
Moreover, this is not the first poll to show that most Palestinians continue to support Hamas, the terror group whose charter openly calls for jihad (holy war) and the elimination of Israel.
The Hamas charter quotes Muslim Brotherhood spiritual founder Hassan al-Banna as saying: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it."
The rising popularity of Hamas among the Palestinians is a clear sign that most of them identify with the Islamist group's goal of destroying Israel.
Like Hamas, these Palestinians want to replace Israel with an Islamist state whose borders stretch from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.
According to the latest poll, if new Palestinian Authority presidential elections were held today, the Biden administration's favorite Palestinian interlocutor, Mahmoud Abbas, would receive 36% and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh would get 54%. In addition, 75% said they want the 87-year-old Abbas to resign.
It would have been a good idea if Blinken had listened to what Hamas leaders clearly said in the past few days during rallies to celebrate the 35th anniversary of the founding of their organization. The Hamas leaders repeated their threats to "uproot the Zionist enemy" from Israel through terrorism. They also praised the terror groups in the Palestinian Authority-controlled areas of the West Bank that are carrying out attacks against Israelis.
Marking the anniversary occasion, Hamas issued a statement on December 14 that basically refutes claims by some Westerners that it has become a "moderate" group that is ready to accept the "two-state solution":
"On the 35th anniversary of its founding, the Islamic Resistance Movement [Hamas] confirms the following: Palestine, from its [Jordan] River to its [Mediterranean] Sea, is the land of the Palestinian people. We will continue to cling to it completely, and to our legitimate right to defend and liberate it by all means, foremost of which is armed resistance."
If the Palestinians really wanted their own state next to Israel, they could have had one many years ago. However, Mahmoud Abbas and his predecessor, Yasser Arafat, rejected all the peace offers they received from Israeli leaders over the past 22 years without even a counteroffer.
"Palestinian rejectionism won the day whenever a concrete partition was on the agenda, such as the one offered by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak in 2000, or the one proposed by former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in 2007," said Efraim Inbar, President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. "Any Palestinian state will be dissatisfied with its borders and intent on using force to attain its goals."
Barak's proposal to Yasser Arafat included the establishment of a Palestinian state on some 92% of the West Bank and 100% of the Gaza Strip, as well as the establishment of a Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem. Arafat said no.
Olmert offered to withdraw from 93% of the West Bank, all of the Gaza Strip and large parts of east Jerusalem. Abbas said no.
Blinken and his advisers could learn a lot from former US President Bill Clinton, who hosted the 2000 peace summit at Camp David. In it, Arafat turned down the generous offer he received from Barak. When Arafat said no, Clinton banged on the table and said: "You are leading your people and the region to a catastrophe."Since then, the Palestinians have done their utmost to fulfill Clinton's prophecy. They continue to resort to terrorism, glorify terrorists and support their families financially, and back Hamas in its jihad to destroy Israel.
Anyone who supports the establishment of a Palestinian state would be paving the way for the Palestinians to use the West Bank and Gaza Strip as launching pads to attack and destroy Israel.
The last thing Israel and its Arab neighbors need is an Iranian-controlled terror state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip that would be used to launch attacks against both Israelis and Arabs. Such a state would be a recipe for war, not peace in the Middle East.
Today, it is evident that the desire to kill Jews and eliminate Israel remains, for many Palestinians, more important than building a state that would live in peace and security side-by-side with Israel. It is time for the Biden administration to wake up to the fact that Clinton understood more than 20 years ago – that the rejectionism of the Palestinian leaders is dragging the Palestinian people, and the entire Middle East, toward a bloody and dead-end future.
The way for the international community -- starting with the US -- to turn the problem around is through insisting that any aid is strictly conditioned upon the Palestinians abandoning their calls for terrorism, which now infest the entire Palestinian society, even in crossword puzzles. If there is any non-compliance, payments must actually be withheld. If one goes to a bank and asks for a loan, there are conditions attached; why not with aid? Otherwise, all of the aid that does not "disappear" is openly being used to bankroll terrorism, jihad and killing Jews.
*Bassam Tawil is a Muslim Arab based in the Middle East.
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Berlin steps in to help Athens, Ankara mend ties
Menekse Tokyay/Arab News/December 19, 2022
ANKARA: A surprise high-ranking meeting in Brussels between Turkiye, Greece and Germany has raised hopes that strained ties between Athens and Ankara can be improved through the mediation of the EU’s political and economic powerhouse. Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin, German Chancellery Foreign and Security Policy Adviser Jens Ploetner and Greek Prime Ministry Diplomatic Office Director Anna-Maria Boura met in an effort to strengthen communication channels between Turkiye and Greece, two NATO allies. No further information was released about the Berlin-brokered meeting that was held at the office of the German representation to the EU. The meeting followed recent threats by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Ankara’s newly tested domestic short-range ballistic missile, Tayfun, could hit Athens if “it doesn’t stay calm” and if Athens “arms the islands.”
Turkiye and Greece have disagreed over several deep-rooted issues ranging from overflights to the military buildup in the Greek islands near Turkiye’s coastline, the exploration of mineral resources in the Aegean and competing claims for offshore waters.
Previous agreements between the two countries required that the islands remain demilitarized. Erdogan repeatedly issued direct threats over the Greek military presence on the islands, saying: “We might suddenly come one night.” The Greek Foreign Ministry, however, released a statement in early December: “The statements made by Turkish officials on the demilitarization of the Aegean islands have been repeatedly rejected in their entirety on the basis of a series of arguments, which are also contained in the relevant letters that Greece has sent to the UN secretary-general.”During the dispute, Germany has always tried to appease the two NATO partners and act as a mediator in the standoff.
In October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged Ankara to end its threats against Greece over the islands and called on both sides to solve the dispute through international law. Jannes Tessmann, head of Germany’s Stiftung Mercator’s Istanbul office, said that Germany has a strong interest in resolving the Mediterranean conflict between Greece and Turkiye for a number of reasons. “However, there are reasons not to have high expectations of the talks: Elections in both countries make concessions difficult. Moreover, Germany has lost credibility as a mediator after German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s last visit to Turkiye and Greece. Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu accused her of partisanship,” Tessmann told Arab News. During a joint press conference in Istanbul last July, the Turkish and German foreign ministers argued over disputes between Ankara and Athens, with Cavusoglu claiming that Germany had lost its impartiality in mediating between Turkiye and Greece. According to Tessmann, there are few countries outside the EU with which Germany has as close a relationship as Turkiye.Therefore, developments in Turkiye often have a direct impact on Germany, economically, socially and politically, he said.
From this perspective, experts note that any normalization of ties between Ankara and Athens could deepen cooperation prospects in other spheres and would bring benefits to all.
Kristian Brakel, head of office at the Heinrich Boll Foundation Turkiye, said that the meeting was a promising step toward getting the parties back to the table. “With elections upcoming in both countries in 2023, for now deconfliction is the priority,” he told Arab News. “I believe neither country wants a real conflict, so agreeing on a simple mechanism or some red lines that would ensure that heated rhetoric will not lead to accidental clashes would be worth a lot,” he added. In a situation where NATO is needed more than ever, Brakel added that Germany, as an ally to both Turkiye and Greece, is interested in building cohesion against Russia amid the war in Ukraine. Tessmann agreed, saying that Russia’s war has increased Turkiye’s importance as a geopolitical actor and NATO partner.
“Decision-makers in Europe are aware of this, but the eastern Mediterranean conflict makes constructive cooperation with Turkiye difficult on many other levels,” he added.
Communication channels between Athens and Ankara closed, especially after Erdogan said that Greek premier Kyriakos Mitsotakis “no longer exists” for him after the latter reportedly lobbied to block sales of F-16 fighter jets to Turkiye during his visit to the US. Ebru Turhan, associate professor of European Studies at Turkish-German University, drew attention to earlier attempts by Germany under Angela Merkel to mediate between the two NATO allies. “During 2020-2021, Germany served as a central mediator between Greece and Turkiye in the mitigation of the so-called east Med crisis,” she told Arab News. “Due to its balanced stance toward both countries and its rejection of imposing hard sanctions on Turkiye, the then German federal government was perceived as a credible mediator by Ankara,” she added. However, after Scholz’s visit to Athens in October and the prospects of an arms deal between Athens and Berlin, Turhan said that Germany’s role as a trustworthy and balanced crisis manager deteriorated in the eyes of Turkish political elite and mass media. “With a nuanced and constructive approach both toward Turkiye and Greece, the German federal government could regain its role as a balanced and reliable mediator in the east Med crisis,” she said. “This would also moderate and weaken the politicization and mediatization of German-Turkish relations ahead of upcoming Turkish elections, and improve German-Turkish bilateral relations,” Turhan added. In order to restore their strained relations, Turhan said that Greece and Turkiye should focus on depoliticizing and removing media influence from their dialogue. “The political elite in both countries should negotiate and deliberate on common challenges behind closed doors in a professional setting rather than reverting to harsh public statements — what we also call megaphone diplomacy,” she said.

When Christendom Learned to Fight Fire with Fire
Raymond Ibrahim/December 19, 2022
The following book review by Lucine Kasbarian, a journalist and editorial cartoonist, recently appeared on American Thinker.
Raymond Ibrahim’s Defenders of the West: The Christian Heroes Who Stood Against Islam, chronicles the lives of eight great Crusaders who defended Christians against Islamic extermination, savagery, occupation, and slavery. These heroes demonstrated great courage on the battlefield and a fierce devotion to their Christian faith. Raymond Ibrahim, an expert in Islamic history and doctrine and a frequent contributor to American Thinker, spotlights Duke Godfrey of Bouillon, France; El Cid (Roderick Diaz of Spain); King Richard the Lionheart of England; St. Ferdinand of Spain; St. Louis of France; John Hunyadi of Wallachia; Skanderbeg, the Albanian Braveheart; and Vlad III Dracula, the Lord Impaler of Romania. The valor of these Christian ironmen who met toe to toe with such warmongers defies belief.
Written in an engaging style using accessible language, these remarkable, factual incidents leave the readers on the edge of their seats. Raymond Ibrahim conducted an impressive amount of research from first-hand sources, not only to furnish comprehensive biographies but also to present what was going on historically, politically, culturally, and socially to give the reader a fuller understanding of what was at stake.
Ibrahim devotes particular attention to each protagonist’s upbringing to provide further insight into what shaped that man’s character. Defenders of the West brings to life the daring and dynamic exploits of kings and knights who have either been misrepresented in modern history books—through ignoring and even contradicting what primary sources (Muslim and Christian) have said about the times—or by eliminating these exploits from official narratives altogether.
Audiences may recognize the names El Cid, Richard the Lionheart, St. Louis, and Vlad the Impaler (who was not a vampire like the fictional Count Dracula created by Bram Stoker). However, in the last century, these individuals have been subjected to discrediting campaigns in films, books, and even protests (think St. Louis, Missouri). The rest have mostly slipped into oblivion due to a blind-eye treatment, thus making the case for why these eight giants richly deserve to be exhumed and reanimated from the dustbin of history.
What further sets the book apart is that it sets the record straight about the Crusades—widely maligned by certain interest groups and lobbies as being inspired by greed, xenophobia, racism, colonialism, and a penchant for violence, humiliation, and conquest. That false assertion actually describes the mission of the Jihadists. Using copious eyewitness testimonies, Ibrahim backs the thesis that the Crusades—which sought to restore lands that were Christian before Jihadists invaded and forcibly Islamized them—were a defensive response and a form of resistance against Islamic attacks against Christendom.
Defenders of the West also shows how Jihadist behavior has existed on a historic continuum beginning in ancient times. This is sure to open the eyes of those who view and even excuse the atrocities of the 1915 Turkish Genocide of indigenous Armenians, Assyrians, and Greeks as a singular event mired in the circumstances of the times. By allowing the primary sources to speak for themselves, the author gives readers the opportunity to compare Jihadists’ moral values to the Crusaders’ values so that they can draw their own conclusions.
Once read, these stirring, heartbreaking and fantastic tales are not easily forgotten. Rather than elaborate on the incredible and often terrifying exploits, suffice to say that these monarchs and military leaders learned from history and bitter experience that only by fighting fire with fire could they hope to establish peace and protect fellow Christians. That makes this book perfect for anyone who is fascinated by the power of knighthood and wishes to witness how far some Christians were willing to go to secure their rights to live and worship in freedom and dignity.
Ibrahim concludes by evaluating what is taking place now, including the mainstream media suppression of the global war on Christians. If we ignore his cautionary words, we do so at our own peril.
Today, powerful nations employ erroneous “both-siderism” in what they think will placate Jihadists, even as civilians are physically and spiritually devoured as peace offerings to their oppressors. A decline in morality, virtue, and discipline in the 21st century means that it will be difficult to imagine the courage of these eight great heroes appearing again in the modern day.
For those interested in the author, Raymond Ibrahim was born and raised in the U.S. by Coptic Egyptian parents who were born and raised in the Middle East. He is the author of several books about Islam and can be found at www.raymondibrahim.com.