English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 14/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Chooses 4 of his
Disciples, Peter & Andrew his brother, & James Son Of Zebedee & His Bother, John
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 04/18-25:
“As he walked by the Sea of Galilee, he saw two brothers, Simon, who is called
Peter, and Andrew his brother, casting a net into the lake for they were
fishermen. And he said to them, ‘Follow me, and I will make you fish for
people.’ Immediately they left their nets and followed him. As he went from
there, he saw two other brothers, James son of Zebedee and his brother John, in
the boat with their father Zebedee, mending their nets, and he called them.
Immediately they left the boat and their father, and followed him. Jesus went
throughout Galilee, teaching in their synagogues and proclaiming the good news
of the kingdom and curing every disease and every sickness among the people. So
his fame spread throughout all Syria, and they brought to him all the sick,
those who were afflicted with various diseases and pains, demoniacs, epileptics,
and paralytics, and he cured them. And great crowds followed him from Galilee,
the Decapolis, Jerusalem, Judea, and from beyond the Jordan.”
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on December 13-14/2021
Aoun Sees 'Urgent Need' for Cabinet Sessions Resumption
President Aoun meets Head of Tripoli Bar Association, tackles developments with
Defense Minister
Mikati meets UN Special Envoy for Syria, France’s Duquesne, Bar Association
delegation
UNIFIL’s top official discusses challenges and opportunities along the Blue Line
at tripartite meeting
Miqati Tells Duquesne Won't Convene Cabinet before Resolving Dispute
No Positive Developments Expected in Lebanon before Year's End
Constitutional Council resumes discussion of FPM's election law challenge
Minister of Finance, Dukan discuss reforms, economic recovery plan, IMF
negotiations
Lebanon’s Currency Continues to Tank amid Monetary Chaos
Soaid Turns Up for Interrogation over Anti-Hizbullah Tweet But Session Postponed
Mawalwi Says Parliamentary Elections Likely in May
Political rift between Hezbollah and political rivals widens in Lebanon
Lebanon’s Rahi Warns Against Obstructing Legislative, Presidential Elections
Manama Regrets Beirut’s Hosting of Press Conference for Figures who Are Hostile
to Bahrain
French Court Orders Lebanese Bank to Pay $2.8 Mln to Locked-Out Depositor
Of sovereignty and explosions/The weekly roundup from NOW.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 13-14/2021
Abu Dhabi crown prince voices hope for Mideast stability in talks with
Israel PM
Saudi King Receives Messages on Bilateral Ties from Rulers of Oman, Bahrain
Satellite images, expert suggest Iranian space launch coming
Turkey not yet ready to give up on Muslim Brotherhood
Syria Says US Forces 'Kidnapped Civilians' Near Deir Ezzor
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, Israel’s Bennett Stress Importance of Boosting
Cooperation
Trump Praises Abbas, Considers him Willing to Make Peace
Israel to Remove Security Detail for Netanyahu Family
EU Draws Up Massive Economic Response to Deter Russia
Taliban Seek Ties with US, Other Ex-foes
Australia and South Korea Sign Defense Deal as Leaders Meet
Race to Find Survivors as US Tornadoes Kill Dozens
Putin Says he Was Forced to Moonlight as Taxi Driver after Soviet Union’s
Collapse
Sudan security forces fire tear gas at anti-coup protesters
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
December 13-14/2021
The Arab Apartheid No One Talks About/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone
Institute/December 13, 2021
Biden is losing contest of wills with Iran over nukes/John Bolton/The
Hill/December 13, 2021
Gulf Arab states that opposed the Iran nuclear deal are now courting Tehran
Karen DeYoung and Liz Sly/The Washington Post/December 13, 2021
The U.S. Must Better Explain Al-Qaeda to the Public/Thomas Joscelyn/The
Dispatch/December 13, 2021
Turkey not yet ready to give up on Muslim Brotherhood/Pinar
Tremblay/Al-Monitor/December 13/2021
Vienna and the Shadow Negotiations/Tariq Al-Homayed/December 13/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December 13-14/2021
Aoun Sees 'Urgent Need' for Cabinet Sessions Resumption
Naharnet/December 13, 2021
President Michel Aoun lamented Monday that “the continued failure to hold
Cabinet sessions has paralyzed the various aspects of governmental work,” while
also decrying the “obstruction of the judiciary’s work.”“There is an urgent need
to hold a Cabinet session, especially that a lot of issues have accumulated and
require decisions from the government,” Aoun added, in a meeting with a
delegation from the Tripoli Bar Association. Cabinet has not convened since
October 14, when a political crisis erupted over Judge Tarek Bitar’s probe into
the port blast, with Hizbullah and Amal demanding that a decision be taken in
Cabinet to remove him over alleged bias. Aoun's camp and other parties have
meanwhile voiced their rejection of any political interference in the judiciary.
President Aoun meets Head of Tripoli Bar Association,
tackles developments with Defense Minister
NNA/December 13, 2021
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, asserted that the need has
become urgent to hold a cabinet session, “Especially since there are numerous
entitlements which have accumulated which require decisions by the Council of
Ministers”. The President also stated that the continuous non-convening of
cabinet sessions disrupted government work in its various aspects, in addition
to disrupting judicial work”.
Moreover, President Aoun emphasized the follow-up on necessary procedures for
holding the parliamentary elections on time, and pointed out that the renewal is
what leads to the desired change. Positions of President Aoun came while meeting
with Head of the Tripoli Bar Association, Marie-Therese Kawwal, accompanied by a
delegation from the Bar Council. The visit came on the occasion of Kawwal’s
election as new Head of the Bar in Tripoli, in addition to the election of 3
members of the Tripoli Bar Council and 3 members of the retirement committee.
Mary-Therese Kawwal:
“Your Excellency, President of the Lebanese Republic, General Michel Aoun.
Following the Union election, the new Head of the Syndicate, along with former
heads and council members, comes to the Presidential Palace to visit the
President of the Republic, in a tradition which goes beyond the frameworks of
protocol, so that it becomes an occasion to deliberate the conditions related to
the profession, in its pros and cons.
Concerning the positives, Tripoli Bar Association celebrated its first centenary
of establishment this year. It is our joy that your Presidential term, Mr.
President, had witnessed three consecutive centenaries: the centenary of the
Beirut Bar Association 2019, the Centenary of Greater Lebanon 2020, and the
centenary of our Bar this year. Your term is a bridge across the nation and its
two human rights institution from century to century. We hope that this will
represent a real transition for a better tomorrow, in an image which our rising
generations desire.
Also among the positives is that the Union, after a full year delay imposed by
public mobilization procedures, held its elections. Perhaps this will also apply
to political and national life, so parliamentary elections will be held on their
constitutional date, and women will have a large share in these elections.
However, how can this positive aspect erase the numerous negative aspects which
are horrific on the homeland and people, reflected badly on all sectors,
especially lawyers. Mr. President, you know we have been suffering from an
almost complete halt in professional work in the courts and departments since
the beginning of 2019. This has continued to this day and has worsened more and
more. Most of the officials are on strike, some judges do not attend, sessions
do not take place and few judgments are issued. Everything worsened as the
national currency collapsed, so the fees of lawyers, salaries of judges and
employees, and all people rights were lost.
Mr. President, it is certain that you hear the same complaint over and over in
one day, but beyond the complaint we ask: Where to? And when will constitutional
authorities dispense with their national responsibilities towards citizens,
protect their deposits, and develop a comprehensive socio-economic plan, in
order to preserve the young generations whose aspirations are a solid boat which
can cross the sea to the opposite shore to escape what they are in?
Yes, Mr. President, this is the situation in Tripoli, the north and all of
Lebanon. Till when? As a syndicate that carries within its formation the
concerns of public affairs, we will not hesitate to do what can be done in order
to activate national life at all levels, instead of disrupting it and despairing
citizens. For this reason Mr. President, we must first urgently demand the
completion of judicial formations in which the North is equitable, so that its
courts are not preoccupied with assignments, as is the case now in many judicial
positions. Judicial formations in which judges are also treated fairly, so they
do not bear the costs of moving between their homes and their arches. New
judicial formations that are issued quickly in accordance with legal principles,
and in which these criteria are taken into account, which are no longer
acceptable to be ignored, will be an actual starting point for serious work to
activate the judiciary, in the interest of justice as a lofty human value, and
the interests and dignity of citizens, and of course lawyers. I should also
point out to a major crisis that we see coming, and we are still finding ways to
confront which is the health insurance crisis that, in light of the conditions
that you know, will leave lawyers without protection from common diseases,
unless we find a way to return the money to the Syndicate, lawyers, and other
citizens, money which is held in banks.
This is an issue that must be addressed by means that guarantee the preservation
of depositors’ rights, because its continued disregard exacerbates the social
crisis, and permanently destroys the already shaky confidence in the banking
sector, one of the most important pillars of the Lebanese economy.
Finally, we are all confident, Mr. President, in your wisdom, and your
insistence on handing over the homeland better than what you have received, as
you have stated on many occasions. Hence, all citizens, and lawyers in specific,
call to reconvene the Council of Ministers, and push the government to work. We
all hope that this will be achieved in the near future”.
President Aoun:
President Aoun praised what was stated in the speech of Kawwal, and stressed the
heavy legacy and accumulations inherited by his presidential term which greatly
affected his career and the implementation of his rescue plan.
The President pointed to the collapse of the financial situation in Lebanon, as
a result of the past method of governance, which led to a significant increase
in the value of the public debt, in addition to what happened in the banking
sector and the smuggling of funds abroad. President Aoun emphasized his
permanent demand for some time to implement the Capital Control, “However, a
project has been drawn up to allow for the lifting of responsibility for banks
that evaded their responsibility as part of the collapse”.
“All these accumulations coincided with several disasters that occurred in the
region and had a great impact on Lebanon and its political and financial
situation, especially the war in Syria and the resulting closure of all doors,
especially on the part of the Arab countries, in addition to the high number of
displaced Syrians who were hosted on Lebanese land, followed by the “revolution”
and then the outbreak of the “Corona” virus, leading to the catastrophic Beirut
Port blast, without forgetting the geographical location of Lebanon and the
“ocean” that surrounds it, from the occupying state, Israel, to Syria, which was
living in major disturbances. We have only one outlet left, which is the sea”
President Aoun said.
“However, on the other hand, we have been able to achieve some important
achievements, especially in terms of fighting terrorism and purifying Lebanon of
sleeper cells” President Aoun added.
Regarding the government situation, President Aoun asserted that the need has
become urgent to hold a cabinet session, “Especially since there are many
entitlements that have accumulated that require decisions by the Council of
Ministers, foremost of which are financial affairs and securing credits for
several sectors, the last of which was funding for the purchase of medicines and
medical supplies and the payment of hospital dues, among others, noting that the
continued failure of the Council of Ministers to convene gas disrupted
government work in its various aspects, in addition to disrupting the work of
the judiciary”. “This is not a pessimistic view on my part, but this is the
reality we live in Lebanon, and this is not an evasion of responsibility, and
you are all people of the law and you know the limitations of the President’s
powers, and that the procedural, legislative and judicial authority is known to
be in the hands of whom, and all of them are combined institutions which
complement and control each other, but the balance does not exist, and there are
many things in the system that need to be changed” the President continued.
The President then assured the delegation that “All the steps we are taking are
to move towards change and God willing, we have started implementing these
steps. It is renewal that leads to the desired change” President Aoun added.
In conclusion, President Aoun talked about the ongoing negotiations with the
International Monetary Fund, and coordination with this institution to reach the
implementation of the economic recovery plan and then start the reconstruction
phase, focusing on the parliamentary elections, “Which he confirmed will take
place on time”. The President reiterated that all the necessary preparatory
measures will be taken to hold these elections, noting that “We hear constantly
from some people skepticism about the occurrence of these elections, as if
someone is working to undermine them”. The meeting was attended by former Heads
of Bar: Rashid Derbas, George Mourani, Khaldoun Naga, Abdul Razzak Dubeliz,
Antoine Ayrout, Bassam Al-Daya, Michel Khoury, Fahd Moghadam, Mohammed Al-Murad,
and members: Mohammed Nashaat Fattal, Mahmoud Harmoush, Marwan Daher, Pascal
Ayoub and Botrous Faddoul.
National Defense Minister:
The President met National Defense Minister, Maurice Sleem, and deliberated with
him security and political developments, in addition to the needs of the
Lebanese Army and institutions affiliated with the Defense Ministry.
The meeting also addressed the methods to be adopted to improve the conditions
of the Army, in light of the difficult economic and living conditions which
Lebanon is witnessing.
Condolences to US President:
The President condoled his United States counterpart, President Joe Biden, for
the victims of the hurricane which struck the US state of Kentucky, asking God
for mercy on their souls and recovery for the injured.
President Aoun expressed his hope that more survivors would be found, and that
the US will succeed in overcoming this tragic catastrophe and its repercussions.
Congratulations for Lebanese Writer Dima Zein De Clerc: The President phone
called the writer of Lebanese origin, Dima Zein De Clerc, and congratulated her
on winning the 2021 grand prize for the competition organized by the Arab World
Institute in Paris for a book she prepared with writer, Stephane Malsagne, on
the 1975-1990 Lebanese war, published by Beilin Publications. The award is
sponsored by the Royal Academy of Morocco. -- Presidency Press Office
Mikati meets UN Special Envoy for Syria, France’s Duquesne,
Bar Association delegation
NNA/December 13, 2021
Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, on Monday affirmed that "contacts are ongoing for
the resumption of the sessions of the Council of Ministers, especially since the
coming period requires holding intensive Cabinet sessions to resolve many files
under study and to keep pace with the ongoing negotiations with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) .”Premier Mikati stressed during his reception
of the French presidential envoy and the Coordinator of International Aid for
Lebanon, Ambassador Pierre Duquesne, that "contacts are ongoing to find a
solution to the government situation, and that negotiations with the IMF are
going well, and results are expected to appear soon. "The Premier stressed that
“calling for a cabinet session without securing the proper conditions can cause
more political tension and further complicate solutions. Thus, we will continue
the contacts before taking a decision in this regard.” Premier Mikati met at the
Grand Serail with French Presidential Envoy, Pierre Duquesne, in the presence of
French Ambassador to Lebanon Anne Grillo. After the talks, Duquesne left without
making a statement. On the other hand, Premier Mikati met with the UN Special
Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, who briefed him on the international talks on
the crisis in Syria.
Discussions also touched on the displaced Syrians’ dossier. Moreover, Mikati met
with the newly-elected Beirut Bar Association Dean, Nader Kaspar, accompanied by
the Bar Association Council members. Separately, Mikati met with former
Minister, Walid Daouk and an accompanying delegation, with talks reportedly
touching on the current general situation. The PM also received Internal
Security Forces' chief, Major General Imad Othman.
UNIFIL’s top official discusses challenges and
opportunities along the Blue Line at tripartite meeting
NNA/December 13, 2021
UNIFIL Head of Mission and Force Commander Major General Stefano Del Col chaired
a Tripartite meeting with senior Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and Israel Defense
Forces (IDF) officers today in Ras Al Naqoura. In his remarks, Major General Del
Col reflected on developments in UNIFIL’s area of operations over the past
twelve months, including serious incidents along the Blue Line, air space
violations and breaches of the cessation of hostilities. “These incidents
clearly demonstrate how vulnerable the Blue Line is to regional dynamics,” said
Major General Del Col. “We must do all within our means to shield the Blue Line
from these dynamics and ensure our actions are focused on maintaining the
cessation of hostilities and stability.” Updating the parties on Security
Council consultations on the latest Secretary-General’s report on the
implementation of resolution 1701, he noted that the Security Council continues
to support UNIFIL through the implementation of resolution 1701.Noting a number
of incidents with the potential for escalation, he urged the parties to avoid
provocative acts, maintain open channels of communication with UNIFIL, engage
with the Mission to find mutually beneficial arrangements to prevent increasing
tension and avail of the mission’s liaison and coordination mechanisms. “I call
on the parties to engage in Blue Line talks to address and solve contentious
Blue Line points as urged by the Security Council,” said the UNIFIL chief.
“Let’s build on the momentum created through the Blue Line marking process and
complete those markers you have previously agreed on.”Major General Del Col
expressed his thanks for the extension of the arrangement supporting olive
growers whose orchards are bisected by the Blue Line to harvest their crops. “I
am hopeful that the extension of the Blida arrangement can be built on for other
contentious issues along the Blue Line,” Major General Del Col stated. Since the
end of the 2006 war in south Lebanon, UNIFIL has chaired regular Tripartite
meetings with the LAF and IDF. This has proven to be essential to conflict
management and confidence-building. Through its liaison and coordination
mechanisms, UNIFIL remains the only forum through which Lebanese and Israeli
armies officially meet.”—UNIFIL
Miqati Tells Duquesne Won't Convene Cabinet before
Resolving Dispute
Naharnet/December 13, 2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati on Monday told French presidential envoy Pierre
Duquesne that “the contacts are still ongoing to resume Cabinet sessions,
especially that the upcoming period requires holding intensive Cabinet sessions
to take decision on numerous files.”Miqati, however, noted that “calling for a
Cabinet session without securing the appropriate circumstances might lead to
further political tensions and might complicate the solutions.”“That’s why we
are continuing our contacts before taking a decision in this regard,” the
premier added. He also noted that the talks with the International Monetary Fund
are “going well.”The French envoy for his part said during the meeting that he
has noticed “the presence of a lot of positive developments, including the
continuation of the negotiation between Lebanon and the IMF in a positive
manner.” Calling on the Lebanese parties to agree on the “general principles for
addressing the Lebanese crisis before reaching an agreement with the IMF,”
Duquesne stressed that “the deal must be reached before the date of the upcoming
parliamentary elections,” adding that “an agreement with the IMF might open the
door to dialogue over the CEDRE Conference projects.”
No Positive Developments Expected in Lebanon before
Year's End
Naharnet/December 13, 2021
The current week will not witness any breakthroughs in the economic, financial,
political and judicial crises, a media report said on Monday. Informed political
sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper that “no significant positive developments
are expected before the year’s end,” noting that “the region’s situations are
still complicated and the Vienna negotiations are slow, which means that Lebanon
will automatically get affected by this situation.”The sources added that Prime
Minister Najib Miqati is “trying to pass this transitional phase with the least
possible losses,” noting that “the issue of his visit to Saudi Arabia is being
mulled” and that “there are requirements and conditions for this visit that
exceed Miqati’s ability to fulfill.”“Miqati is seeking to prepare the
appropriate groundwork for the visit, based on reconciling between the
particularity of the Lebanese situation and the Lebanese demands,” the sources
added.
Constitutional Council resumes discussion of FPM's
election law challenge
NNA/December 13, 2021
The Constitutional Council convened in a session on Monday in the presence of
all its members, and resumed the study of a motion filed by the Free Patriotic
Movement challenging the amendments made to the electoral law.
The Council is expected to issue its judgement by the end of the week.
Minister of Finance, Dukan discuss reforms, economic
recovery plan, IMF negotiations
NNA/December 13, 2021
Finance Minister, Youssef El-Khalil, on Monday welcomed the Coordinator of the
International Aid for Lebanon, Ambassador Pierre Dukan, who visited him in the
company of head of the Regional Economic Services Department at the French
Embassy, Francois De Ricolfis. According to a statement issued by the Ministry
of Finance’s press office, the meeting mainly discussed "the required reforms,
as well as the economic recovery plan and negotiations with the International
Monetary Fund."
Lebanon’s Currency Continues to Tank amid Monetary Chaos
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Lebanon’s national currency further collapsed Monday, trading on the black
market at nearly 20 times its value two years ago, worsening inflation and
people’s despair. The Lebanese pound was trading at 27,000 to the dollar on the
black market, hitting a new low in its downward trajectory since October 2019 as
the Lebanese economy went into a tailspin. The currency is officially pegged at
1,500 pounds to the dollar. The economic collapse has been described as one of
the worst in the world in over 150 years. Inflation and prices of basic goods
have skyrocketed in Lebanon, which imports more than 80% of its basic goods.
Shortages of basic supplies, including fuel and medicine, and restrictions on
bank withdrawals and transfers, particularly in foreign currency, have increased
the desperation of the Lebanese in the once middle-class country. Poverty has
exponentially increased while the political class, blamed for years of
corruption and mismanagement, has failed to offer drastic solutions to the
crisis. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a recovery plan
have been bogged down in political disagreements and blame trading. The latest
fall in the currency exchange rate follows a central bank directive last week
that changed the rate used when depositors make withdrawals from existing dollar
accounts to 8,000 pounds to the dollar, up from the previous 3,900 to the
dollar. The directive allowed people to recover money they have not been able to
access because of informal capital controls introduced by the banks at the
outset of the crisis. But experts said it put more pressure on the national
currency because the central bank will print more pounds, further decreasing
their value and purchasing power.
Soaid Turns Up for Interrogation over Anti-Hizbullah Tweet But Session Postponed
Naharnet/December 13, 2021
A session to interrogate ex-MP Fares Soaid was postponed Monday, due to a strike
by judicial assistants. The session was scheduled for today after Hizbullah
filed a lawsuit against Soaid, because of a tweet that Hizbullah said “stirred
sectarian sentiments and civil war.”Soaid had accused Hizbullah of "storing
weapons in Hangar 12," holding them accountable for the Beirut port blast. The
upcoming session’s date wasn’t specified, the National News Agency said. “We
respected the Judiciary’s decision for today’s session, and we respect its
decision to postpone the interrogation,” Soaid said. “We hope that nothing
happens in Lebanon before the next session, otherwise (Hizbullah) might be held
responsible for any consequences,” the ex-lawmaker added. “The plaintiff is not
an ordinary party,” Soaid stressed, adding that the disagreement “is not over
money” but over a political dispute in a “chaotic and insecure country.” Soaid
said he fears “a security incident” if the session is postponed for long. Soaid
had come to the Justice Palace in Baabda, with his lawyer, to appear before the
First Mount Lebanon Investigative Judge Nicolas Mansour. A group of supporters,
including ex-MPS Marwan Hmedeh and Ahmad Fatfat, had staged a sit-in in front of
the Justice Palace.
Mawalwi Says Parliamentary Elections Likely in May
Naharnet/December 13, 2021
Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi told Egypt’s MENA news agency that he
expects the elections to take place in May. “The elections won’t take place in
March, unless President Michel Aoun agrees to sign, before December 27, the
decree amending the electoral law and rescheduling elections for March 27,”
Mawlawi said. “But Aoun is firm on his refusal to sign the decree,” the minister
affirmed. “The decree must be signed by the President, Prime Minister and
Interior Minister, and must be published in the official Gazette, three months
ahead of the elections' scheduled date,” he clarified. Mawlawi won’t use his
jurisdiction to issue an official decree appointing a date for elections and
send it to the President, before an agreement is settled with Aoun and Miqati.
“I wish to reach a minimum of political consent” and to “avoid political
bickering,” Mawlawi said.
Political rift between Hezbollah and political rivals widens in Lebanon
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 13, 2021
President Aoun responds after Maronite patriarch criticizes ongoing Cabinet
obstruction.
Prime minister calls for investigation following official protest from Bahrain
over ‘hostile’ press conference.
BEIRUT: Lebanese President Michel Aoun complained on Monday about the “continued
failure” of the country’s Cabinet to convene, disrupting government and judicial
work amid a widening rift between Hezbollah and the rest of the political
establishment. Aoun, an ally of Hezbollah, made his remarks after Maronite
Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi attacked “those who obstruct the Cabinet
(from) meeting … against the interests of the state and the people,” in a sermon
on Sunday. The continued stalemate over the Cabinet stems from a refusal by
Hezbollah to adhere to a stance preventing Lebanon from interfering in the
affairs of Arab countries. The Cabinet initially stopped meeting on Oct. 12,
after Hezbollah and the Amal Movement decided to boycott its sessions in a bid
to force the removal of Judge Tarek Bitar from the investigation into the
explosion at the Port of Beirut last year. Lebanon is going through stifling
economic conditions in light of the collapse of the Lebanese pound against the
dollar. Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Monday in the presence of the French
presidential envoy, Ambassador Pierre Dukan, that “contacts are continuing to
find a solution to the government’s situation.” But he added that “calling for a
Cabinet session without securing the appropriate conditions may cause more
political tension and complicate solutions more and more.”The French envoy — who
is also coordinator of international aid for Lebanon — stressed “the necessity
of laying down general principles to address the Lebanese crisis before reaching
an agreement with the International Monetary Fund.” The ambassador said that the
agreement with the IMF should be completed before the next parliamentary
elections. On Sunday night, Mikati strongly condemned “affronting the leadership
and the people of Bahrain,” after a complaint was lodged by Bahrain’s Ministry
of Foreign Affairs over a press conference held in Beirut for “hostile elements
classified as supporting and sponsoring terrorism, for broadcasting and
promoting abusive and malicious allegations against Bahrain.”
Mikati described what happened as “behavior that does not express the opinion of
the largest segment of the Lebanese people,” and asked the Public Prosecutor’s
office “to conduct immediate investigations regarding this press conference,
which included allegations offensive to Bahrain, and to take appropriate
measures in accordance with the laws in force.” The Lebanese Foreign Ministry
stressed that Lebanon “will not be a seat or a corridor of abuse or infringement
on brotherly Bahrain and all Arab countries.” The ministry confirmed Lebanon's
“full commitment to the Charter of the Arab League in terms of non-interference
in the internal affairs of the Arab brothers.”
Lebanon’s Rahi Warns Against Obstructing Legislative,
Presidential Elections
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi slammed on Sunday the cabinet paralysis,
accusing certain politicians of seeking to obstruct Lebanon’s legislative and
presidential elections scheduled for next year. Lebanon's cabinet has not met
since Oct. 12 amid a row over a probe into the 2020 deadly Beirut port blast. In
his Sunday sermon in Bkirki, Rahi said: "The state cannot operate without an
executive authority.” He rejected a government that paralyses itself. Rahi also
warned against a plan for capital control that leads to citizens losing the rest
of their bank deposits under the pretext of distributing losses. Addressing the
socio-economic crises, Rahi described the situation as “catastrophic.” Also, the
patriarch touched on the issue of Palestinian refugees, criticizing the latest
decision of the Labor Minister to allow Palestinians to work in Lebanon.Rahi
considered the Minister’s decision as contradicting the constitution, which
rejects the naturalization of Palestinians.
Manama Regrets Beirut’s Hosting of Press Conference for
Figures who Are Hostile to Bahrain
Manama, Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Bahrain's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed on Sunday its "deep regret" over
and denunciation of Beirut’s hosting of a press conference for "hostile persons
designated as supporters and sponsors of terrorism, with the purpose of
disseminating and promoting abusive and malicious allegations against the
kingdom." In a statement carried by the Bahrain news agency (BNA), the Ministry
announced that a "strongly-worded formal protest note had been submitted to the
Lebanese government regarding this unacceptable act, which is a flagrant
violation of the principles of respect for the sovereignty of states and
non-interference in their internal affairs, in contravention of international
charters and the charter of the Arab League." The Ministry added that an
official note verbale of protest had been sent to the Secretariat General of the
Arab League in this regard, expressing Bahrain's condemnation of this
"unfriendly step" by Lebanese authorities. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs
called on the Lebanese government "to prevent such reprehensible practices that
aim to offend the Kingdom of Bahrain, and are inconsistent with the most basic
diplomatic norms and the brotherly relations between the two peoples."
In Beirut, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was informed of Manama's
formal complaint, saying he had urgently referred it to the concerned
authorities and demanded that an immediate probe be launched in the incident so
that it can be avoided in the future.
Mikati strongly condemned any offense against Bahrain, its leadership and
people, rejecting any meddling in the kingdom's internal affairs. He also
refused to have Lebanon be used as a platform to launch abuse against Bahrain or
any other Arab country, especially the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
He stressed that he is keen on the "historic and close ties" that bind Lebanon
and Bahrain, adding that what they share "is deeper than any wrong behavior that
does not reflect the position of the vast majority of the Lebanese people."
Bahrain had in October expelled the Lebanese ambassador over offensive comments
made by a Lebanese minister against Saudi Arabia. The minister has since
resigned.
French Court Orders Lebanese Bank to Pay $2.8 Mln to Locked-Out Depositor
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
A French court has ordered a Lebanese bank to pay $2.8 million to a client
residing in France, in the first-known international ruling against informal
capital controls imposed by Lebanese banks since 2019. The Nov. 19 ruling, not
yet published but seen by Reuters, orders Lebanon's Saradar Bank to pay the
Syrian claimant all the funds she had deposited in two accounts at the bank in
2014. Saradar Bank will appeal the judgment, "which results from a
misapplication of the Lebanese law," the bank said in a written statement to
Reuters. Lebanon's financial system collapsed in 2019 after years of
unsustainable financial policies, and banks imposed tight controls on accounts,
including a de facto ban on withdrawals of dollar-denominated deposits and
limits on withdrawals in the local currency. These controls were never
formalized with legislation and have been challenged in local and international
courts by savers who have sought to gain back their money promptly in hard
currency, rather than in the Lebanese pound which has lost more than 90% of its
value in two years. Attempts to formalize capital controls have repeatedly
failed, including last week by a parliamentary committee amid opposition from
groups representing depositors' rights, who said the draft legislation would
immunize banks from prosecution while failing to secure people access to their
money. "This ruling means that Lebanese depositors clearly have recourse in
international courts, and while every case is different from the other, it is an
encouraging step for a number of claims spanning from Europe to the Gulf and
US," lawyers for the depositor Nada Abdel Sater and Jacques-Alexandre Genet said
in joint written remarks to Reuters. They asked that the claimant's name be
withheld over privacy concerns. Abdel Sater is representing several clients in
similar cases spanning three continents and said British courts recently
accepted three cases put forward by depositors against Lebanese banks. Saradar
had argued that the case brought in France should be reviewed by a Lebanese
court, but the French court said it was competent because the claimant had been
approached by employees of the bank and signed contracts in Paris and was a
long-time resident of France. Saradar had terminated her accounts and deposited
the funds in cheques with a Beirut notary. The French ruling said that the
unilateral move by the bank, opposed by the claimant, meant the bank had not
fulfilled its obligations. Due to the informal controls in Lebanon, cheques
cannot be cashed out in dollars and are instead sold on the market at a discount
of about three-quarters of the total price, meaning the claimant would have lost
much of her money, had she accepted. "As a result, the bank will be deemed to
have failed to fulfill its obligation of restitution (of funds) incumbent upon
it," and is ordered to make the payout, the ruling said.
Of sovereignty and explosions/The weekly roundup from NOW.
Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/December 13/2021
I know the international system is supposed to be anarchic. Formally, it is.
Informally, however, in practice, it’s a patron-client system, where small and
developing states navigate informal subordination mechanisms.
Obviously, sovereignty is one thing, dependence is another. Sovereignty is a
concept that belongs to the formal sphere of international relations, a
principle that should not be compromised. It has to do with the state holding
monopoly over the use of weapons and violence to ensure law and order. When a
state gives up that right, it’s no longer a state. When it partially gives up
that right over various patches of territory, it may survive as a state, but it
will be constantly fearing for its existence and over-policing the areas it is
able to control. In Lebanon, the problem is that the principle of sovereignty,
that prerogative of one state to use violence to maintain law and order on the
territory it governs, is at stake. Also, in Lebanon, the violation of
sovereignty is misunderstood and equated by some commentators with informal
relations and practices, diplomacy and negotiations that are normal for a global
world. That is part of the transactional, where things change, mutate. The
informal side of international relations, whether we look at it from a global or
regional perspective, is made of pyramids where smaller and weaker states adhere
to the ideology of stronger, more developed states. The reasons are various,
there is a large variety of situations: there is informed consent, there is
blackmail, there is threat, but there are also charm and soft power. In short,
having a proxy army is a matter of violation of sovereignty just like air raids
by an enemy army. If the country’s land is sacred, sovereignty is sacred. They
transcend. If they no longer transcend, they become part of the transactional:
everyone will want a proxy army in one form or another and the state will not be
able to argue coherently for allowing one proxy army but not another to police
certain territory. Political influence, accepting France’s help or US help,
negotiating with the Gulf, pressure to enforce rule of law and complete
investigations, liberal freedoms versus theocratic norms, allowing press
conferences, and then apologizing, are matters of the transactional. No one is
immune to trading influence. But they should be rejecting a non-state military
presence that restricts citizen rights in various regions, that doesn’t answer
before the state law, and, when it suits it, it doesn’t recognize state law at
all. Because sooner or later its presence will tear the whole country apart.
Bottom line is – if Hezbollah can compromise Lebanon’s sovereignty, no one will
ever see it as inviolable again. Without Hezbollah’s knowledge and permission in
South Lebanon, Hamas could not have stored anything, be it oxygen or anything
else, under a mosque, in an overcrowded refugee camp. And there is nothing any
state institution can do to investigate it, leaving everything to everyone’s
imagination.
The explosion
One man died after being injured on Friday night when an explosion rocked Bourj
al Shemali Palestinian refugee camp in the vicinity of Tyre, South Lebanon. The
immediate explanation for the deflagration that came from sources in the
Lebanese security institutions (they never speak on the record) was that an arms
depot in the basement of a local mosque exploded after a nearby fuel tank had
caught fire. Friday night’s explosion also left a few people wounded, said a
Palestinian official in the camp. Oxygen: Hamas denied the initial media reports
that an arms depot had blown up. “An electrical short circuit in a storage depot
containing a quantity of gas and oxygen canisters for coronavirus patients”
caused the blast, it said. “The fire caused damage to property but the impact
was limited,” it said, without detailing casualties. The explosion, which
blackened the walls and shattered windows of a nearby mosque, was caused by an
electrical short circuit that sparked a fire in a store containing the oxygen
tanks, it said in a statement. Officially, Lebanon hosts some 192,000
Palestinian refugees, most of whom live in the country’s 12 camps, according to
the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA).
Unclear: If there are more victims, noone really knows. But someone blamed the
Islamist organization for the explosion that might have done more damage than
any media outlet was able to verify. The shooting: Someone opened fire on Sunday
on the funeral procession of the Hamas militant who died on Saturday after
sustaining wounds in the explosion. Hamas official Raafat al-Murra said
militants from the rival Fatah movement “shot at the funeral procession.” Three
Hamas militants were killed, six people were wounded, he added. Talal al-Abed
Kassem, an official from security forces affiliated with Fatah in the camp, said
that “the shooter is neither a member of the Fatah movement nor the security
forces”, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported. Over a decade of skirmishes:
Hamas and Fatah, the secular party led by Mahmoud Abbas, have been at odds since
2007 when the Islamists seized Gaza after a week of deadly clashes. The Lebanese
army said later that Palestinian security officials had handed over a
Palestinian man accused in the shooting and that an investigation had been
opened. Hamas late Sunday issued a statement that blamed security forces of the
Palestinian Authority, which is led by Abbas. Those forces held “direct
responsibility” for what it said was “murder and assassination”, and that PA
security forces in Lebanon and leadership in Ramallah were “fully responsible
for this crime”.Reactions: Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea asked Sunday for
an official version from the Lebanese authorities concerning the explosion that
took place Friday evening. As a reminder, the Christian leader was summoned for
investigation after the October 14 clashes between some LF supporters and
Hezbollah and Amal gunmen, with the Lebanese Army also caught in the middle.
We’re not going to hold our breath for any investigation to take place and for
any results to be made public in a spurt of transparency from the Lebanese
state.
The right to work: Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram finalized last Wednesday a
decision to grant Palestinian refugees the right to work in Lebanon. Many
Palestinian refugees born and raised in Lebanon are doctors, lawyers and nurses,
but are unable work in the managerial, business, tourism, industrial,
information, health, education and service sectors. Most were employed illegally
and underpaid. The decision announced by the minister was met with criticism
from the Christian right, historically opposed to Palestinian presence in
Lebanon.
The new ministerial decision includes “Palestinians born in Lebanese
territories, born to a Lebanese mother or married to a Lebanese citizen, and
non-registered Palestinians who were born in Lebanon”. It forbids them from
joining state security services or free profession syndicates.
A fisheye view of the region
The first visit: Israeli PM Naftali Bennet made the headlines when visiting the
UAE and meeting the crown prince, but no one mentioned Iran in any media report
about the meetings. The UAE was one of the Gulf countries that broke ties with
Lebanon after Saudi Arabia got angry at Hezbollah’s grip over state
institutions. Only the Israeli ambassador said the topic of Iran was on the
agenda. Bahrain complains: A group of Bahraini opposition activists held a press
conference in the southern suburbs of Beirut last week to criticize the
rapprochement between the government in Manama and Israel. The Kingdom of
Bahrain issued a complaint on Sunday and sent it to the Lebanese Ministry of
Foreign Affairs. Lebanese PM Najib Mikati issued an apology. A step closer
to normalization: Syria opened the border crossings with Lebanon, which had been
closed due to the Covid -19 pandemic. Jordan also announced in September it had
opened the border with Syria. Syria agreed to transfer Egyptian gas and
Jordanian electricity to Lebanon through its territory. It remains unclear when
Lebanon will start importing the resources, given the fact that the electricity
grid, as well as the gas pipeline, have been damaged during the war in Syria and
need serious repairs.
The Beirut Blast probe
Arrest warrant: Beirut port blast chief investigator Tarek Bitar called on
Friday for the immediate arrest of former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil.
The investigation into the massive explosion at Beirut port on August 4, 2020
resumed Wednesday after a two-month hiatus caused by multiple lawsuits seen as
seeking to hamper the work of judge Tarek Bitar. Complaint to the UN: Several
suspects in the Beirut port explosion case claimed that the Lebanese government
was detaining them arbitrarily and illegally, filing a complaint to the United
Nations on Friday, to protest their detention since August 5, 2020 “without any
reason other than that they occupy their current or previous positions.” The
complaint was filed by Head of Customs Badri Daher, former Head of Customs
Chafic Merhi, port Director-General Hassan Koraytem, customs authority director
Hanna Fares, all of whom knew about the presence of the ammonium nitrate in the
Beirut port before the explosion. Meanwhile, in a different court: Former Byblos
MP and general secretary of the March 14 alliance Fares al-Souaid was called in
for investigation after Hezbollah filed a complaint against him for defamation
and inciting to civil war. The reason for Hezbollah’s complaint was that Souaid
tweeted on September 6 and 18 that Hezbollah was responsible for the Beirut port
blast. His interrogation was postponed on Monday due to a strike of court
employees.
Elections corner
Probably in May: Minister of Interior Bassam Mawlawi told Egyptian agency MENA
that Lebanon’s legislative elections will most probably take place in May. The
reason is that President Aoun, who has rejected the March 27 date set by the
parliament, would not sign a decree before December 27. To be able to hold the
poll on March 27, the decree needs to be signed at least three months before.
Whenever, wherever: Hezbollah also said they want elections, whenever they may
happen. MP Hassan Fadlallah said the party didn’t yet choose candidates.. but
they will be announced as soon as the leadership makes a decision.
In other news
Telecom on strike: Employees of the companies Alfa and Touch, the only mobile
telephony companies in Lebanon, have announced an open-end strike starting on
Monday in protest of “infringements on their rights, including the lack of
health coverage amid a grueling economic crisis”. The employees gathered in
front of the headquarters of each company, halting all customer services and
closing down official retail stores. The mobile telephony companies remain among
the few that still provide subsidized services at the 15,00 LBP/US$ rate.
Another nosedive for the pound: The Lebanese currency plummeted on the market
Thursday after the central bank raised the exchange rate for US dollar deposits
held in the country’s banks. The exchange rate for US dollars was raised from
3,900 to 8,000 Lebanese pounds. This new parallel rate affects dollar deposits
that have been trapped in Lebanese banks by a capital controls policy that
prevents people from withdrawing their savings. Depositors will now be allowed
to withdraw limited amounts of their dollar deposits in Lebanese pounds at
double the previous rate. No progress: The Parliament rejected a capital control
bill last Wednesday, after pressure from depositors’ associations. The
first two Omicron cases: The Lebanese health ministry said Thursday that it had
confirmed the country’s first two cases of the Omicron variant of Covid in
passengers tested upon arrival at the airport. Detention of a journalist:
Lebanese authorities released US journalist Nada Homsi last Wednesday, after
several human rights organizations, including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty
International, called for her to be let go. Nada Homsi, a freelance journalist
currently working with National Public Radio (NPR), had been arrested by the
Lebanese General Security on November 16 following a raid on her apartment that
took place without a judicial order, Amnesty International and Human Rights
Watch said in a joint statement. She was held on security charges. The General
Security released a statement explaining why she was held. Homsi dismantled them
all. One by one. A big deal out of satire: On Tuesday, citizen Jean-Paul
Samaha filed a complaint before the public prosecution office against activist
Amani Danhash, a.k.a Ammounz, for “disrespecting the presidency of the
republic,” adding that he is doing so because he is “a citizen with dignity.”
The case was transferred to the Criminal Investigation Department. The reporting
follows several campaigns launched by FPM supporters against Ammounz since the
October 17 uprising, Megaphone reported. One campaign went as far as demanding
that the company which employs her in Dubai should fire her.
Lebanon+:
#metoo growing in Lebanon: Harassment cases have been making headlines more
often in Lebanon, after the first case ever to make it to court. Lats week,
students in Tripoli protested against a teacher accused of sexual harassment,
demanding his dismissal. The Ministry of Education announced they would assign a
new principal for the high school in North Lebanon. In South Lebanon, a scuba
diving teacher has been accused of harassment. Acknowledgement: Monika Borgmann,
filmmaker and co-director of UMAM Documentation and Research, a Lebanese NGO
that focuses on issues related to civil violence and the collective memory of
the Lebanese civil war, was awarded the Franco-German Human Rights Prize.
Podcasts: Many podcast hosts have already started their holiday vacations. Only
Sarde after Dinner hosted Big Hass, the host of Laish Hip Hop, the first and
only Hip-Hop show in Saudi Arabia. But among the best podcasts I have listened
to this year, is Mike Azar’s 6:08, which he read on The Beirut Banyan. Brace up,
it will take its toll on you. He recorded it on the one-year anniversary of the
Beirut blast. It may be triggering, but it was also necessary. For him to heal,
and for us to remember. Until next week, stay safe. Follow NOW Lebanon on
Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and LinkedIn, and subscribe to our weekly
newsletter.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on
December 13-14/2021
Abu Dhabi crown prince voices hope for Mideast stability in talks with Israel PM
Reuters/December 14, 2021
The Palestinians, whose diplomacy with Israel has been stalled since 2014, have
deplored the Israeli-UAE rapprochement
ABU DHABI: Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan hosted
Israel’s Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Monday in the first ever public
meeting between the UAE’s de facto ruler and an Israeli leader.
Israel’s ambassador to Abu Dhabi said the issue of Iran was on the agenda for
their talks, which follow the formalization of Israel-UAE relations last year
under a US-led regional initiative. While shared concern about Iranian activity
was among reasons for the diplomatic moves, the UAE has also been trying to
improve relations with Tehran. Releasing photographs of Bennett and Sheikh
Mohammed smiling and shaking hands, the Israeli leader’s office described the
meeting as “historic.”A statement on state news agency WAM said Sheikh Mohammed
voiced hope for “stability in the Middle East” and that Bennet’s visit would
“advance the relationship of cooperation toward more positive steps in the
interests of the people of the two nations and of the region.”The Palestinians,
whose diplomacy with Israel has been stalled since 2014, have deplored the
Israeli-UAE rapprochement. Israeli Ambassador Amir Hayek declined to elaborate
on any discussion of Iran but he told Israel’s Army Radio: “The prime minister
did not only come here solely to address the Iranian issue.” With world powers
now trying to renew the Iran nuclear deal, Abu Dhabi last week sent an envoy to
Tehran. A US delegation is due in the UAE this week to warn Emirati banks
against noncompliance with sanctions on Iran. Iran has not been mentioned
publicly by Bennett since he set off on Sunday to the UAE with pledges to
promote bilateral commerce and other forms of civilian cooperation. The Israel
Hayom newspaper, quoting unnamed officials, said Bennett was expected to brief
Sheikh Mohammed on intelligence regarding Iranian-supplied militias and drones
in the region. Israel last month broached setting up joint defenses against Iran
with Gulf states. Hayek said military sales to UAE are in the works, though
Israeli industry sources say advanced Israeli air defense systems have yet to be
offered. “Israel is in cooperation with a new friend, with a partner for the
long-term, and the considerations will be both considerations of defense and
also considerations of how you work with a country which is very, very, very
friendly to Israel,” Hayek said. Israel-UAE bilateral trade in goods alone
reached nearly $500 million so far in 2021 — up from $125 million in 2020 — and
is expected to continue growing rapidly.
Saudi King Receives Messages on Bilateral Ties from
Rulers of Oman, Bahrain
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz received on Monday
written messages from the rulers of Oman and Bahrain tackling bilateral
relations and the close bonds that tie them to Riyadh. Prince Faisal bin Farhan
received Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq's message during a meeting in Riyadh
with his Omani counterpart Badr Albusaidi. The meeting at the headquarters of
the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) covered bilateral ties and ways to bolster
them in all fields. They also tackled regional and international issues of
common interest. Prince Faisal also met with Bahrain's Foreign Minister Dr.
Abdullatif al-Zayani, who handed him a message from King Hamad bin Isa Al
Khalifa. Their talks focused on bilateral relations between Riyadh and Manama,
as well as regional and international developments.
Satellite images, expert suggest Iranian space launch
coming
Jon Gambrell/DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP)/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Iran appears to be preparing for a space launch as negotiations continue in
Vienna over its tattered nuclear deal with world powers, according to an expert
and satellite images.
The likely blast off at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport comes as Iranian state
media has offered a list of upcoming planned satellite launches in the works for
the Islamic Republic’s civilian space program, which has been beset by a series
of failed launches. Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard runs its own
parallel program that successfully put a satellite into orbit last year.
Conducting a launch amid the Vienna talks fits the hard-line posture struck by
Tehran’s negotiators, who already described six previous rounds of diplomacy as
a “draft,” exasperating Western nations. Germany’s new foreign minister has gone
as far as to warn that “time is running out for us at this point.” But all this
fits into a renewed focus on space by Iran’s hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi,
said Jeffrey Lewis, an expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies who studies
Tehran’s program. With Iran’s former President Hassan Rouhani who shepherded the
nuclear deal out of office, concerns about alienating the talks with launches
that the U.S. asserts aids Tehran’s ballistic missile program likely have faded.
“They’re not walking on eggshells,” Lewis said. “I think Raisi’s people have a
new balance in mind.” Iranian state media did not acknowledge the activity at
the spaceport and Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not respond to a
request for comment. The U.S. military, which tracks space launches, did not
respond to requests for comment. Satellite images taken Saturday by Planet Labs
Inc. obtained by The Associated Press show activity at the spaceport in the
desert plains of Iran’s rural Semnan province, some 240 kilometers (150 miles)
southeast of Tehran. A support vehicle stood parked alongside a massive white
gantry that typically houses a rocket on the launch pad. That support vehicle
has appeared in other satellite photos at the site just ahead of a launch. Also
visible is a hydraulic crane with a railed platform, also seen before previous
launches and likely used to service the rocket. Other satellite images in recent
days at the spaceport have shown an increase in the number of cars at the
facility, another sign of heightened activity that typically precedes a launch.
A building also believed to be the “checkout” facility for a rocket has seen
increased activity as well, Lewis said. “This is fairly traditional pre-launch
activity,” he told the AP.
The activity comes after Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency on Dec. 5 published
an article saying its space program had four satellites ready for launch. It
described one, the low-orbit imaging satellite Zafar 2, as being “under the
final phase of preparation.” Zafar, which means “victory” in Farsi, weighs some
113 kilograms (250 pounds). The Zafar 1, however, failed to enter orbit after a
February 2020 launch at the spaceport. That launch used a Simorgh, or “Phoenix,”
rocket, but it failed to put the satellite into orbit at the correct speed,
according to Iranian officials at the time. Iran had spent just under 2 million
euros to build the satellite. Iran’s civilian space program has seen a series of
setbacks and fatal explosions plague it in recent years. One mysterious blast
even caught the attention of then-President Donald Trump in 2019, who tweeted
out what appeared to be a classified U.S. spy satellite picture of the
explosion’s aftermath with the caption: “The United States of America was not
involved in the catastrophic accident.” Meanwhile, the Guard in April 2020
revealed its own secret space program by successfully launching a satellite into
orbit. The head of the U.S. Space Command later dismissed the satellite as “a
tumbling webcam in space” that wouldn’t provide Iran vital intelligence — though
it showed Tehran’s ability to successfully get into orbit.
Over the past decade, Iran has sent several short-lived satellites into orbit
and in 2013 launched a monkey into space. But under Raisi, Iran’s Supreme
Council of Space has met for the first time in 11 years, according to a recent
report by state-run television. Raisi said at the November meeting that it
“shows the determination of this government to develop the space industry.” A
high-ranking member of the Guard who runs its aerospace program, Gen. Amir Ali
Hajizadeh, attended the meeting along with Foreign Minister Hossein
Amirabdollahian.
The U.S. alleges such satellite launches defy a U.N. Security Council resolution
calling on Iran to undertake no activity related to ballistic missiles capable
of delivering nuclear weapons. Iran, which long has said it does not seek
nuclear weapons, maintains its satellite launches and rocket tests do not have a
military component. Tehran also says it hasn’t violated the U.N. resolution as
it only “called upon” Tehran not to conduct such tests. But the possible launch
also comes as tensions again rise over Iran’s nuclear program. Since Trump
unilaterally withdrew America from Tehran’s nuclear accord with world powers in
2018, Iran slowly abandoned all the limits the deal put on its program. Today,
Tehran enriches uranium up to 60% purity — a short technical step from
weapons-grade levels of 90%. Its stockpile of enriched uranium also continues to
grow and international inspectors face challenges in monitoring its advances.
Lewis said he expects to see the space program accelerate given Raisi’s
interest.
“They’re not constrained by worries about the Iran deal in the same way that
Rouhani was,” he said.
Associated Press writer Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.
Follow Jon Gambrell on Twitter at
www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.
Turkey not yet ready to give up on Muslim Brotherhood
Pinar Tremblay/Al-Monitor/December 13/2021
Turkey has shown a willingness to repair relations with Israel, Egypt, and other
countries in the Middle East. But Ankara’s relations with the Muslim
Brotherhood, a sticking point for almost all of these bilateral ties, are more
complicated than meets the eye.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has often said that he wants to reconcile
with the Gulf countries, Egypt and Israel. On Dec 7, Erdogan reiterated that
better relations with Israel would benefit the regional peace. But all these
countries would like Ankara to curb its enthusiasm for the Muslium Brotherhood
(MB), a global organization with different groups and political entities under
its broad umbrella. MB has been declared a terrorist organization in countries
such as Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE and Syria. Turkey has become a
hub for exiled MB members after the Arab Spring. And today as Turkey wants to
rebuild relations in the region, its support for MB is a major issue. Since
2013, Qatar and Turkey have emerged as main supporters of MB. Unlike Qatar,
whose support was mostly financial, Ankara’s relations are multilayered and
complex. Reports have emerged that Israel has asked Turkey to close Hamas
offices in Istanbul. But a senior bureaucrat, speaking on condition of anonymity
in Ankara, told Al Monitor, “This is not even an option open for negotiation for
us.”
In Turkey, MB has domestic support and organic growth. Erdogan’s pragmatism is
well known, but on MB issues over the last two decades his support has not
wavered. But Turkey’s foreign policy options in the Middle East are dwindling.
Ankara wants to break its isolated stand. Erdogan’s need for higher domestic
approval compels him to speak more amicably about different Middle Eastern
rivals. Turkey’s bargaining chips are scarce, and its support for MB is probably
one of the few that still matters. But although it may be willing to agree to
curb activities of certain MB opposition voices, for Ankara it is too soon and
too risky to cut off links with MB. Even if Ankara has the political will to end
its support, what would happen to homegrown MB? The senior bureaucrat commented,
“If we close Hamas’s offices and expel members of MB, then what will be the next
demand, shut down IHH and others and prosecute them? MB’s reach is wider than
meets the eye. In May 2010, the Mavi Marmara flotilla was raided by Israeli
commandos, and 10 Turkish citizens were killed in a mission to end the Gaza
blockade. That ship was owned by IHH, Humanitarian Relief Organization, a
Turkish Islamist NGO active in over 115 countries. Israel declared IHH a
terrorist organization in 2008 because of IHH’s support for Hamas to fund its
military activities. Indeed, IHH was under legal scrutiny in the 1990s, before
AKP assumed power. AKP has allowed several Islamic organizations to operate
freely, filling in gaps for education and for social and economic aid both at
home and abroad. IHH, for instance, is a force to be reckoned with for any
politician. At the end of November, four young IHH volunteers lost their lives
in a car accident, and their funerals drew condolences for IHH from all
political party leaders and different Islamist NGOs.
On Nov. 29, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu tweeted support for
Palestine. Yet Turkey’s support for Palestinians is neither unconditional nor
for all Palestinians. Since 2019, Turkey has a $700,000 bounty on Mohammed
Dahlan, a former Fatah leader who fled to UAE. Dahlan is seen as Hamas’ rival in
Gaza. Given Turkey's economic and regional struggles, it would be unrealistic to
expect an expansion of support for Hamas, but Ankara is not yet ready to bid
Hamas goodbye. Erdogan’s recent meetings with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin
Sultan Al Nahyan, crown prince of UAE, give the illusion of Turkey’s willingness
to realign its policies in the region. However, a senior Turkish diplomat who
spoke on condition of anonymity said, “Turkey’s ‘good relations’ with any Middle
Eastern country is like a sandcastle on the beach. Only a matter of time for the
next wave to knock it over.” He added that “Qatar’s dependency on Turkey is
diminishing fast as they go back into the GCC fold. Now, people should be aware
all Turkey is left with is MB, therefore, I expect a stronger embrace, maybe
less visible, less audible but definitely MB is the best tool and ally Turkey
has right now.”
Syria Says US Forces 'Kidnapped Civilians' Near Deir
Ezzor
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
US forces carried out a "large airborne operation" near Deir Ezzor in eastern
Syria on Monday at dawn, Syrian state news agency SANA said. The American forces
landed in the town of Busayra, east of Deir Ezzor, and "kidnapped a number of
civilians", it said. There was no independent confirmation of the report. The
province of Deir Ezzor, along the Iraqi border, is a strategic supply route for
Iranian-backed militias who regularly send reinforcements into Syria to support
President Bashar al-Assad. US forces are deployed at a base in al-Tanf region,
south of Deir Ezzor, as part of combat mission against ISIS militants who
continue to wage a low-level insurgency in Iraq and Syria.
Abu Dhabi Crown Prince, Israel’s Bennett Stress Importance of Boosting
Cooperation
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met on Monday with visiting Israeli Prime
Minister Naftali Bennett.
Sheikh Mohamed expressed hope that the Israeli Prime Minister's visit, which is
the first to the United Arab Emirates, would contribute to further cooperation
for the benefit of the peoples of the two countries and the peoples of the
region, Emirates News Agency (WAM) reported.
It said Sheikh Mohamed and the Israeli Prime Minister reviewed bilateral
cooperation and means to further develop them under the framework of the Abraham
Accords Peace Agreement that the two countries signed last year. The meeting
also touched on the importance of Expo 2020 Dubai, especially for countries in
the Middle East to take advantage of the opportunities and the latest
sustainability solutions and innovations offered by the participating states.
During the meeting, Sheikh Mohamed highlighted that the UAE’s foreign relations
are based on firm principles of mutual respect, cooperation and upholding the
values of coexistence and peace, noting that this is the best way to achieve the
aspirations of peoples. The Israeli Prime Minister commended the level of
cooperation between the two countries and the steps they are taking based on the
Abraham Accords. The two sides highlighted the keenness to boost bilateral
cooperation and joint action to enhance mutual interests and contribute to the
consolidation of stability, security and development in the region. They also
shed light on the importance of broadening qualitative investment and economic
partnerships that serve the priorities of sustainable development in the two
countries and the wider region. The Abraham Accords Peace Agreement constituted
a vital move towards achieving peace, enhancing security, and promoting
stability in the region, WAM reported Monday. A year after the signing of the
Agreement in September 2020, the bilateral relations between the two countries
have achieved remarkable development, it said. The value of intra-UAE trade with
Israel amounted to more than AED3.5 billion until the end of September, and the
value of non-oil foreign trade between the two countries exceeded AED2.9 billion
during the first nine months of this year, WAM added. Bennett has affirmed that
the Agreement established a "new, deep and solid structure for diplomatic,
economic and cultural relations" in this region based on cooperation that
achieves prosperity for the societies and well-being of the people.
In an exclusive interview with WAM, Bennett said: "In my opinion, this is what
the peace and the new reality this region is witnessing, and we are working
together to ensure a better future for our children." Bennett said that the
relations that bind Israel with the UAE cover every possible field, pointing out
that ministries in the two countries work with each other, as well as many
companies and businessmen, and delegations from both sides pay reciprocal
visits. He added: "I expect that our relations will remain good, especially in
the economic field. In my opinion, cooperation in the field of health and food
security will constitute a major part of the mutual cooperation."
Trump Praises Abbas, Considers him Willing to Make Peace
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
After lashing out at Benjamin Netanyahu and accusing him of disloyalty, ex-US
President Donald Trump spoke about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in newly
released interview excerpts Saturday, accusing the former Israeli leader of
obstructing peace. In the latest comments broadcast by Israel’s Channel 12,
Trump said he believed Netanyahu “did not want to make peace. Never did.” The
former US President said that when Netanyahu stated at the Bar-Ilan University
his support for a two-state solution, he was not serious. “Bibi did not want to
make a deal,” Trump said, using Netanyahu’s nickname. “Even most recently, when
we came up with the maps” as part of his administration’s peace plan,
Netanyahu’s reaction was “‘Oh this is good, good,’ everything was always great,
but he was never… he did not want to make a deal.”“Now I don’t know if Netanyahu
didn’t want to make it for political reasons, or for other reasons. I wish he
would have said he didn’t want to make a deal, instead of…. Because a lot of
people devoted a lot of work. But I don’t think Bibi would have ever made a
deal. That’s my opinion. I think the general [Defense Minister Benny Gantz]
wanted to make a deal.” Here, before starting to praise Gantz, Trump surprised
his Israeli interviewers by praising Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud
Abbas. “He wanted to make a deal more than Netanyahu. And I will be honest, I
had a great meeting with him, Abbas, right. I had a great meeting with him. And
we spent a lot of time together, talking about many things. And it was almost
like a father. I mean, he was so nice, couldn’t have been nicer.” Trump recalled
he then told Netanyahu that “I had a very good meeting with Abbas. We can
definitely do a deal.”And when asked about the Israeli leader’s response, he
said, “‘Well, let’s think about it. Let’s not move too fast, you know.’ After he
started talking, I said, wait a minute, you don’t want to make a deal. And he
said, ‘Well, uh, uh, uh.’ And the fact is I don’t think Bibi ever wanted to make
a deal.”The former US President said he had thought the Palestinians were
impossible, and the Israelis would do anything to make peace and a deal, but
later found that not to be true. Later, Trump offered his favorable opinion on
Gantz, saying he wanted to make a deal. “I really like him a lot. I thought he
was great. He came to the White House. He was someone that, in my opinion, it
would have been much easier to make a deal with the Palestinians… The
Palestinians hate Netanyahu. They hate him with a passion. They did not hate
Gantz. They didn’t hate him.”
Israel to Remove Security Detail for Netanyahu Family
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
An Israeli parliamentary committee voted Sunday to stop providing personal
security for former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's wife and adult sons. The
decision, which goes into effect Monday, came despite pleas from Netanyahu that
his family is regularly subjected to threats on their lives.
Netanyahu was unseated from the prime minister's office in June after a
constellation of political parties united in their opposition to him succeeded
in forming a government without his long-ruling Likud party. The one-time
leader, who served as prime minister for 12 consecutive years, is now the
opposition leader and continues to have a state-issued security detail. Under
standard procedures, security and a chauffeured vehicle are granted to the
family of a former prime minister for the first six months after he leaves
office. But in January, at Netanyahu's insistence, that limit was extended by a
ministerial committee to one year. On Sunday, the same ministerial committee
adopted a recommendation from the Shin Bet security service to reduce the period
back to six months, The Associated Press reported. It said there were no
imminent threats to Netanyahu's wife or children. Netanyahu's sons Yair and
Avner, and wife Sara, lost their security detail on Monday. "When the Shin Bet,
Israel Police, and the Mossad say that there is no threat to the Netanyahu
family, the decision is easy," Public Security Minister Omer Barlev tweeted
following the vote. "I am counting on the Shin Bet and police that if there is
such a threat, it will be uncovered and dealt with." Netanyahu criticized the
anticipated decision as political in a Facebook video released Friday, saying
there were regular threats made against the lives of his family and that "the
writing is on the wall." He called on members of the committee, which included
security officials, not to "abandon the security of my wife and children."
EU Draws Up Massive Economic Response to Deter Russia
Agence France Presse/Monday, 13 December, 2021
European foreign ministers met Monday to coordinate what they warn would be an
unprecedented economic sanctions regime if Russia launches a new military
assault into Ukraine. Following a meeting of G7 ministers in Liverpool at the
weekend, where the U.S. and major allies warned the Kremlin of "massive"
consequences, the 27 EU ministers gathered in Brussels. They were expected to
approve a list of names and companies associated with Russia's private military
company Wagner to be added immediately to existing sanctions regimes. And they
will signal their readiness to impose huge new measures targeting Russia's
economy if a troop build-up near the Ukrainian border leads to direct military
action. The ministers are also expected to discuss whether or not European
capitals will join a US-led diplomatic boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics in
February, to protest Chinese rights abuses. "Yesterday we had the G7," EU
foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said, arriving at the talks. "There was a
strong agreement, position in order to have a strong stance behind Ukraine,
defending their sovereignty and territorial integrity. "We will send a clear
signal that any aggression against Ukraine will have a high cost for Russia," he
said, insisting that Brussels will coordinate any action with London and
Washington. Lithuania's Gabrielius Landsbergis stressed that the sanctions
threat was a deterrent but that, if they proved necessary, they would have to be
on an "unprecedented scale".The meeting on Monday was the first EU foreign
affairs council for Germany's foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, a Green
politician who came to office last week in Chancellor Olaf Scholz's new
coalition.
Persecuted minority
Berlin holds one of the most important cards in the sanctions deck, if it
decides that President Vladimir Putin's actions warrant blocking the Nord Stream
2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. Asked about the threat to Ukraine before
heading to Brussels, Baerbock told ZDF television that "in the event of further
escalation, this gas pipeline could not come into service." The talks on Monday
will also help prepare for the EU leader's meeting with the "Eastern
Partnership" -- Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Azerbaijan -- on
Wednesday. Belarus has been excluded from this group after the EU accused
strongman Alexander Lukashenko of rigging his re-election, but opposition leaser
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is in Brussels Brussels wants to present its eastern
neighbors with a united front against what it sees has Russia's destabilizing
meddling in the region, a senior European diplomat told AFP. But against China
-- accused of persecuting the Uyghur minority, threatening Taiwan and cracking
down on freedoms in Hong Kong -- there is less agreement between EU capitals.
The United States and some of Washington's allies have announced that it will
not send diplomats or top officials to the Winter Olympics in Beijing, in
protest against China's actions.
But Europe is divided. "I am always in favor of a European approach, but
sometimes it is hard to find," admitted Landsbergis, whose government is in
dispute with China over the opening of a Taiwanese mission in Vilnius. His
Luxembourg counterpart, Jean Asselborn said a diplomatic boycott would not be
helpful. "I share France's position," he said. French President Emmanuel Macron
said last week that a purely diplomatic boycott would be "a very small and
symbolic measure."
Taliban Seek Ties with US, Other Ex-foes
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Afghanistan’s new Taliban rulers are committed in principle to education and
jobs for girls and women, a marked departure from their previous time in power,
and seek the world’s “mercy and compassion” to help millions of Afghans in
desperate need, a top Taliban leader said in a rare interview.
Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi also told The Associated Press that
the Taliban government wants good relations with all countries and has no issue
with the United States. He urged Washington and other nations to release upward
of $10 billion in funds that were frozen when the Taliban took power Aug. 15,
following a rapid military sweep across Afghanistan and the sudden, secret
flight of US-backed President Ashraf Ghani. “Sanctions against Afghanistan would
... not have any benefit,” Muttaqi said Sunday, speaking in his native Pashto
during the interview in the sprawling pale brick Foreign Ministry building in
the heart of the Afghan capital of Kabul. “Making Afghanistan unstable or having
a weak Afghan government is not in the interest of anyone," said Muttaqi, whose
aides include employees of the previous government as well as those recruited
from the ranks of the Taliban.
Muttaqi acknowledged the world's outrage at the Taliban-imposed limitations on
girls' education and on women in the work force. In many parts of Afghanistan,
female high school students between the grades of seven and 12 have not been
permitted to go to school since the Taliban took over, and many female civil
servants have been told to stay home. Taliban officials have said they need time
to create gender-segregated arrangements in schools and work places that meet
their own severe interpretation of Islam.
When they first ruled from 1996-2001, the Taliban shocked the world by barring
girls and women from schools and jobs, banning most entertainment and sports and
occasionally carrying out executions in front of large crowds in sports
stadiums. But Muttaqi said the Taliban have changed since they last ruled.
“We have have made progress in administration and in politics ... in interaction
with the nation and the world. With each passing day we will gain more
experience and make more progress,” he said. Muttaqi said that under the new
Taliban government, girls are going to school through to Grade 12 in 10 of the
country's 34 provinces, private schools and universities are operating
unhindered and 100% of women who had previously worked in the health sector are
back on the job. “This shows that we are committed in principle to women
participation," he said. He claimed that the Taliban have not targeted their
opponents, instead having announced a general amnesty and providing some
protection. Leaders of the previous government live without threat in Kabul, he
said, though the majority have fled. Last month, the international group Human
Rights Watch published a report saying the Taliban summarily killed or forcibly
disappeared more than 100 former police and intelligence officials in four
provinces. However, there have been no reports of large-scale retribution.
Muttaqi charged the Afghan government that took power after the US-led coalition
ousted the Taliban regime in 2001 carried out widespread revenge attacks against
the Taliban. Hundreds disappeared or were killed, causing thousands to flee to
the mountains, he said. The Taliban were ousted for harboring al Qaida and Osama
bin Laden who masterminded the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US. Muttaqi
insisted poverty and the dream of a better life — not fear — drove thousands of
Afghans to rush the Kabul airport in mid-August in hopes of getting to America.
The crush of people had generated searing images of men clinging to a departing
American C-17 aircraft, while others fell to the ground as the wheels retracted.
He said the Taliban have made mistakes in their first months in power and that
“we will work for more reforms which can benefit the nation." He did not
elaborate on the mistakes or possible reforms.
Muttaqi pushed back against comments by US Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie who told
the AP last week that the al-Qaida extremist group has grown slightly inside
Afghanistan since US forces left in late August. McKenzie is Washington’s top
military commander in the Middle East. In a February 2020 deal that spelled out
the terms of a US troop withdrawal, the Taliban had promised to fight terrorism
and deny terrorist groups a safe have. Muttaqi said Sunday that the Taliban have
kept that promise, along with a pledge not to attack US and NATO forces during
the final phase of the withdrawal which ended in late August. “Unfortunately,
there are (always) allegation against ISIS of Afghanistan , but there is no
proof,” said Muttaqi. “If McKenzie has any proof, he should provide it. With
confidence I can say that this is a baseless allegation.”
Meanwhile, ISIS militants have stepped up attacks on Taliban patrols and
religious minorities in the past four months. The IS affiliate in Afghanistan
has targeted Shiite mosques in the provincial capitals of Kunduz and Kandahar,
and carried out frequent attacks on Taliban vehicles. Muttaqi however said the
Taliban have gained the upper hand in recent weeks, saying there had not been a
major attack in the last month. Washington’s ability to track IS activities in
Afghanistan has been handicapped since the troop withdrawal. Muttaqi said he
does not envision cooperating with the US in the battle against the ISIS group.
However, he did express hope that with time, “America will slowly, slowly change
its policy toward Afghanistan” as it sees evidence that a Taliban-ruled country
able to stand on its own is a benefit to America. “My last point is to America,
to the American nation: You are a great and big nation and you must have enough
patience and have a big heart to dare to make policies on Afghanistan based on
international rules and relegation, and to end the differences and make the
distance between us shorter and choose good relations with Afghanistan.”
Australia and South Korea Sign Defense Deal as Leaders
Meet
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
Australia and South Korea signed a $720 million defense deal Monday as South
Korean President Moon Jae-in became the first foreign leader to visit Australia
since the pandemic began. Worth about 1 billion Australian dollars, the deal
will see South Korean defense company Hanwha provide the Australian army with
artillery weapons, supply vehicles and radars, The Associated Press reported.
It's the largest defense contract struck between Australia and an Asian nation,
and comes at a time of heightened tensions between Australia and China.
Australia recently announced a deal to build nuclear-powered submarines in a
partnership with the US and Britain — a move that China has strongly condemned.
Moon met with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison during his visit, and the
two leaders agreed to upgrade the formal ties between their nations to a
“comprehensive strategic partnership." The leaders also said they would work
together on developing clean energy technologies, including hydrogen, and on
facilitating the supply of critical minerals, which Australia has in abundance.
Morrison said the new defense contract would create about 300 jobs in Australia,
where a division of Hanwha operates. “The contract that we have signed today, I
think, speaks volumes about what we believe are the capabilities of the Korean
defense industry," Morrison said. Moon said South Korea had similar values to
Australia when it came to its geopolitical outlook, but also that its
relationship with China was important, particularly when it came to pursuing
peace with North Korea. “Therefore, South Korea is focused on the steadfast
alliance with the US and also with China," Moon said. “We want a harmonized
relationship.”Australian Defense Minister Peter Dutton said his government was
committed to keeping the region safe and the new contract would help modernize
the Australian army. “The prime ability of the new vehicles is to fire and move
quickly, avoiding enemy counterattack,” Dutton said. “This project will mean a
significant increase in the level of firepower and security for Australian
artillery capability.”South Korea is Australia’s fourth-largest trading partner
and fourth-largest export market under a free trade agreement that has been in
force since 2014. This year marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties
between the two countries.
Race to Find Survivors as US Tornadoes Kill Dozens
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
US emergency workers searched Sunday for survivors of ferocious tornadoes that
killed dozens of people across several states and left towns in ruins, but the
governor of hard-hit Kentucky warned that cadaver dogs were still finding
bodies. President Joe Biden called the rare late-season burst of twisters in the
US heartland "one of the largest" storm outbreaks in American history, and both
federal and local officials cautioned the death toll, for now at 94, could still
rise. The Democratic president sent the heads of the Homeland Security
Department and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to Kentucky to
assess the situation, and promised the full gamut of federal aid. Indeed, local
authorities were starting to get aid to stunned residents sifting through the
rubble of their homes and businesses -- but the devastation was intense. "The
very first thing that we have to do is grieve together and we're going to do
that before we rebuild together," Kentucky's Governor Andy Beshear told an
afternoon news conference. More than 80 people are dead in the state alone, many
of them workers at a candle factory in the ravaged town of Mayfield, Beshear
said Sunday, telling CNN: "That number is going to exceed more than 100." Later
in the day, the governor said the factory's owner believed more of the workers
had been located, and it would be "pretty wonderful" if the toll were to be
revised down, but stressed he could not verify that information. "Remember,
we're still finding bodies. We've got cadaver dogs in towns that they shouldn't
have to be in," he said. At least six people died in an Amazon warehouse in the
southern Illinois city of Edwardsville, where they were on the night shift
processing orders ahead of Christmas. Emergency crews worked through the night
into Sunday at both locations, and FEMA agents and Red Cross volunteers were on
the scene in Kentucky. But Edwardsville fire chief James Whiteford told
reporters the operation had turned from rescue to focus "only on recovery,"
fueling fears the toll will rise. Four were killed in Tennessee and two died in
Arkansas, while Missouri recorded two fatalities. Tornadoes also touched down in
Mississippi.
- 'Unlike anything I have seen' -
Emergency crews were helping stunned citizens across the US heartland clear out
the rubble of their homes and businesses. David Norseworthy, a 69-year-old
builder in Mayfield, said the storm blew off his roof and front porch while the
family hid in a shelter. "We never had anything like that here," he told AFP.
But as a nondenominational church in Mayfield was handing out food and clothing
to storm survivors, it was also providing space for the county coroner to do his
work, pastor Stephen Boyken of His House Ministries told AFP. People "come with
pictures, birthmarks -- they talk now about using DNA samples to identify those
who have been lost," he said. The storm system's power placed it in historic
company. Storm trackers said it had lofted debris 30,000 feet (9,100 meters) in
the air, and the deadly Mayfield twister appeared to have broken an almost
century-old record, tracking on the ground well more than 200 miles (320
kilometers). "The devastation is unlike anything I have seen in my life,"
Beshear said. As Americans grappled with the immensity of the disaster,
condolences poured in, with Pope Francis saying he is praying "for the victims
of the tornado that hit Kentucky." Biden's Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin,
in a break from tense bilateral relations, said his country "shares in the
grief" of those who lost loved ones.
- 'Hope for a miracle' -
Mayfield, a town of about 10,000 near the westernmost tip of Kentucky, was
reduced to "matchsticks," its mayor Kathy O'Nan said. Still, she told NBC on
Sunday, "there's always hope" of finding survivors among the missing.
"We hope for a miracle."
Troy Propes, the CEO of the company that owned the candle factory, defended his
decision not to close it as the storm neared. "We did everything that was
supposed to happen," he told CNN on Sunday. "My heart bleeds for absolutely
everyone." Mayfield was described as "ground zero" by officials, and appeared
post-apocalyptic: city blocks were leveled, historic homes and buildings beaten
down to their slabs, tree trunks stripped of their branches and cars overturned
in fields. Some Christmas decorations could still be seen by the side of the
road.
- 'New normal' -
Reports put the total number of tornadoes across the region at around 30. "This
is going to be our new normal. And the effects that we're seeing from climate
change are the crisis of our generation," Deanne Criswell, the administrator of
the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told CNN on Sunday. Biden said he
planned to soon travel to the affected areas, once his presence would not
infringe upon relief efforts.
Putin Says he Was Forced to Moonlight as Taxi Driver after
Soviet Union’s Collapse
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 13 December, 2021
President Vladimir Putin has lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union three
decades ago as the demise of what he called "historical Russia" and said the
economic crisis that followed was so bad he was forced to moonlight as a taxi
driver. Putin's comments, released by state TV on Sunday, are likely to further
fuel speculation about his foreign policy intentions among critics, who accuse
him of planning to recreate the Soviet Union and of contemplating an attack on
Ukraine, a notion the Kremlin has dismissed as fear-mongering. "It was a
disintegration of historical Russia under the name of the Soviet Union," Putin
said of the 1991 breakup, in comments aired on Sunday as part of a documentary
film called "Russia. New History", the RIA state news agency reported. "We
turned into a completely different country. And what had been built up over
1,000 years was largely lost," said Putin, saying 25 million Russian people in
newly independent countries suddenly found themselves cut off from Russia, part
of what he called "a major humanitarian tragedy.” Putin also described for the
first time how he was affected personally by the tough economic times that
followed the Soviet collapse, when Russia suffered double-digit inflation.
"Sometimes (I) had to moonlight and drive a taxi. It is unpleasant to talk about
this but, unfortunately, this also took place," the president said. Putin, who
served in the Soviet-era KGB, has previously called the collapse of the Soviet
Union, which was ruled from Moscow, as the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe"
of the 20th century, but his new comments show how he viewed it specifically as
a setback for Russian power.
Sudan security forces fire tear gas at anti-coup protesters
AP/December 14, 2021
CAIRO: Security forces fired tear gas on Monday to disperse protesters in
Sudan’s capital in the latest street demonstrations against the October military
coup and subsequent deal that reinstated deposed Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.
Thousands of people took to the streets in Khartoum and other Sudanese cities as
part of relentless demonstrations that have engulfed the country since the
military seized power on Oct. 25. The coup upended a fragile planned transition
to democratic rule more than two years after a popular uprising forced the
removal of former President Omar Bashir and his government in April 2019. Hamdok
was reinstated last month amid international pressure in a deal that calls for
an independent technocratic Cabinet under military oversight led by him. The
agreement included the release of government officials and politicians detained
since the coup. The Nov. 21 deal, however, was rejected by the pro-democracy
movement, which insists power be handed over to a civilian government to lead
the transition. Their protests follow the slogan: “No negotiations, no
compromise, no power-sharing” with the military. Footage circulated on social
media Monday purportedly showed demonstrators marching in different locations in
Khartoum and its sister city Omdurman. One video showed thousands of protesters
in Khartoum’s district of Bahri, many of them waving Sudanese flags. Activist
Nazim Sirag said security forces used tear gas to disperse people marching in a
street near the presidential palace in Khartoum. Protesters were seen in online
videos throwing tear gas canisters back at forces. There were no immediate
reports of casualties. The US Embassy in Khartoum said in a tweet: “We stand
with the Sudanese people as they seek freedom, peace, and justice in today’s
demonstrations, and welcome their government’s commitment to protection of
peaceful protesters.” Monday’s protests were called by the Sudanese
Professionals Association and the so-called Resistance Committees, which
spearheaded the uprising against Bashir and then the military coup. The protests
came a few days ahead of the third anniversary of the start of the uprising
against Bashir. In past rounds of demonstrations security forces used violence,
including firing live ammunition at protesters, according to activists. At least
44 people were killed and hundreds wounded in protests triggered by the coup.
The protests have increased pressure on the military and Hamdok, who has yet to
announce his Cabinet. The prime minister on Sunday appointed new acting
governors of the country’s provinces to replace those named by coup leader Gen.
Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the ruling Sovereign Council, after the coup.
The Latest The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 13-14/2021
The Arab Apartheid No One Talks About
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/December 13, 2021
"Not all of the professions will be opened to Palestinians under the new
decree...." — L'Orient Today, December 8, 2021.
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon "are socially marginalized, have very limited
civil, social, political and economic rights, including restricted access to the
Government of Lebanon's public health, educational and social services and face
significant restrictions on their right to work and right to own property." —
UNRWA, September 2020.
There are several reasons why the Lebanese do not want the Palestinians. One
reason is that since the 1970s, the Palestinians have brought war and
destruction to Lebanon and turned refugee camps into bases for terror groups.
"It is time to end this history of discrimination and systematic segregation...
Qualified Palestinians should be allowed to practice their professions,
especially in fields where they are most needed.... Very few Lebanese would
share my view." — Sawssan Abou-Zahr, senior Lebanese journalist, Reliefweb,
August 1, 2021. What is clear...is that the international community has long
been ignoring the abuses and human rights violations by an Arab country against
the Palestinians.
The demonization of Israel by so many journalists, officials and so-called
human-rights groups leaves little time to ask why a Palestinian in Lebanon is
not permitted to practice medicine while a significant portion of the medical
staff at Israeli hospitals consists of Arab doctors and nurses.
The international community has long been ignoring the abuses and human rights
violations by Lebanon against the Palestinians. There are several reasons why
the Lebanese do not want the Palestinians. One reason is that since the 1970s,
the Palestinians have brought war and destruction to Lebanon and turned refugee
camps into bases for terror groups. Pictured: Palestinians in Ain el-Hilweh,
Lebanon's largest Palestinian refugee camp, protest on January 31, 2020.
The issue of Arab apartheid and discrimination recently resurfaced after a
Lebanese minister announced that his country decided to allow Palestinians to
work in several sectors that were until now reserved just for Lebanese
nationals.
The announcement by Mostafa Bayram, Lebanon's Minister of Labor, came as a
surprise to many Palestinians who have been banned for the past four decades
from working in many professions.
Palestinians are hoping that the decision would end decades of discrimination
and marginalization by an Arab country -- Lebanon.
Some Lebanese, however, expressed fierce opposition to Bayram's decision to ease
the labor restrictions imposed on the Palestinians. These Lebanese seem afraid
that the Palestinians will either take their jobs or become full citizens of
Lebanon.
On December 8, Bayram, who is affiliated with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah
terrorist group, published a decree allowing Palestinians to work in
trade-union-regulated professions.
The decree states that Palestinians born on Lebanese territory and officially
registered with the Ministry of Interior may work in professions requiring union
membership from which they had previously been barred.
These union-regulated jobs include professions such as medicine, law, and
engineering, as well as public transport and tourism-related jobs.
This does not mean, however, that Lebanon has decided completely to end
discriminatory measures against Palestinians.
"Not all of the professions will be opened to Palestinians under the new decree,
as some require legal changes or changes to the unions' bylaws in order for
non-Lebanese workers to be allowed into the field," according to L'Orient Today,
which describes itself as an independent platform that aims to examine the
failures of the Lebanese system.
"The history of Palestinian refugees' interactions with restrictive employment
policies in Lebanon dates back to the period preceding the Lebanese Civil War,"
according to a study of Palestinian employment in Lebanon.
The study noted that the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs proposed in 1964
to regulate the participation of foreigners in the Lebanese labor market.
Consequently, the Palestinians were classified as foreigners and required to
obtain a work permit.
In 1982, the Lebanese authorities further restricted the list of professions
open to Palestinians. They were barred from working in 70 commercial and
administrative professions.
The study also noted that the restrictions were lifted slightly in 1995, with
the introduction of a new amendment to the ministerial decree. It exempted from
these restrictions foreigners who were born in Lebanon, born to Lebanese mothers
or married to Lebanese women.
According to the United Nations Relief and Work Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA):
"[Palestine refugees in Lebanon] are socially marginalized, have very limited
civil, social, political and economic rights, including restricted access to the
Government of Lebanon's public health, educational and social services and face
significant restrictions on their right to work and right to own property."
UNRWA noted in addition that Palestinian refugees are still prohibited from
practicing 39 professions, mainly due to a precondition that requires them to
hold Lebanese nationality and obtain a work permit. The professions include the
sectors of healthcare, law, transportation, engineering and tourism.
The latest decree by the Lebanese Minister of Labor was received with mixed
feelings.
While some Palestinians and Lebanese welcomed it as a positive step towards
ending the discrimination and apartheid, others said it was insufficient and did
not provide clear mechanisms for enforcement. According to senior PLO official
Ahmad Tamimi:
"The decree represents an important turning point in the lives of the
Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, as it constitutes an end to their hardship and
a significant development in changing their human conditions towards a decent
life and a normal life."
Tamimi also said that the Lebanese decision "had a positive impact on the hearts
of the Palestinians in general and the refugees in Lebanon in particular."
Critics, however, are less enthusiastic about the prospects of ending the system
of apartheid and discrimination in Lebanon.
"Like everyone else, I am critical and wary of this decision," wrote a social
media user called Islam-#GoldStrike.
"One of its very first and major flaws is that it is a decision made by the
minister himself so it is tied to him being in this position, meaning it can be
easily revoked by the next minister."
Some Lebanese seem especially worried that the Palestinians will take over the
jobs of Lebanese citizens in a country where the rate of unemployment is
estimated at more than 40%.
These Lebanese appear worried that the decision would pave the way for the
permanent settlement of the Palestinians in Lebanon. There are several reasons
why the Lebanese do not want the Palestinians.
One reason is that since the 1970s, the Palestinians have brought war and
destruction to Lebanon and turned refugee camps into bases for terror groups.
The Lebanese are afraid that the continued presence of the Palestinians in
Lebanon would have economic and demographic implications on Lebanon. They argue
that Lebanon is facing an acute economic crisis and cannot afford to absorb
non-Lebanese nationals, including the Palestinians, who are already living in
harsh conditions in several refugee camps.
The Lebanese are also afraid of tawteen ("resettlement"). Some suspect that
there are Arabs and other international parties, who would like to see Lebanon
become a homeland for the Palestinians. That is why these Lebanese regard the
Palestinians as "foreigners."
The Lebanese, in short, are saying that the Palestinians are not welcome to stay
in Lebanon.
The heads of Lebanon's physicians' and pharmacists' unions, who opposed the
easing of restrictions imposed on the Palestinians, expressed "shock" over the
minister's decision.
They pointed out that the laws of their unions state that no doctor has the
right to practice medicine on Lebanese territory until he or she is accepted as
a member of the unions.
Lebanon's Kataeb Party, a Christian political party, warned that the decision to
allow Palestinians to work in several sectors would have grave repercussions on
the political and economic situation in Lebanon:
"Opening the door for refugees in Lebanon to practice dozens of professions is
an assault on the right of the Lebanese, and a consolidation of their permanent
presence in Lebanon while the Lebanese are emigrating... This step will
contribute to reducing the salaries in the mentioned professions in line with
the supply and demand market. It will also require institutions and employers to
register [Palestinian] employees for social security, which will accumulate
unbearable burdens that will lead to bankruptcy."
The Lebanese Party also warned that the decision has "hidden and malicious
intentions," such as permanently settling Palestinians in Lebanon.
Despite these clear anti-Palestinian views by Arabs, there are nevertheless some
Lebanese who are not afraid to express their shame over Lebanon's mistreatment
of, and discriminatory measures against, the Palestinians.
"It is time to end this history of discrimination and systematic segregation,"
wrote senior Lebanese journalist Sawssan Abou-Zahr.
"Qualified Palestinians should be allowed to practice their professions,
especially in fields where they are most needed. I dare to say it is time to
grant Palestinians some kind of representation at municipalities at the very
least. Very few Lebanese would share my view. Some might accuse me of treason; a
large number would refuse considering this suggestion, either out of racism or
fear that improving the living conditions of refugees is the equivalent of
permanently settling them in the country."
It is not clear at this stage if the Hezbollah-affiliated minister's decision
will indeed end Lebanon's long-standing apartheid policies and laws against
Palestinians. What is clear, however, is that the international community has
long been ignoring the abuses and human rights violations by an Arab country
against the Palestinians.
Journalists covering the Middle East generally ignore the plight of the
Palestinians in the Arab countries, including Lebanon. For them, Lebanon's
actions and policies against the Palestinians is not newsworthy.
The demonization of Israel by so many journalists, officials and so-called
human-rights groups leaves little time to ask why a Palestinian in Lebanon is
not permitted to practice medicine while a significant portion of the medical
staff at Israeli hospitals consists of Arab doctors and nurses.
Imagine the uproar that would have erupted at UN institutions or university
campuses in the US or Canada had such measures been taken by Israel. Yet when an
Arab country subjects Palestinians to deep-seated discrimination and violates
their basic human rights, the only sound you can hear is a deadly silence.
*Khaled Abu Toameh is an award-winning journalist based in Jerusalem.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
Biden is losing contest of wills with Iran over nukes
John Bolton/The Hill/December 13, 2021
https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/585318-biden-is-losing-contest-of-wills-with-iran-over-nukes
Finally, the last whimper seems at hand for President Biden’s effort to revive
the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement. Inherently flawed, with grievously inadequate
verification provisions, and now overtaken by events, the deal’s demise comes
not a moment too soon.
We face two closely related, urgent questions: Why has America failed to stop
Iran’s nuclear-weapons program? And, with time running out, how does Washington
avoid final defeat?
Biden’s advisers, sensing their Holy Grail is unattainable, blame America’s 2018
withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), thereby
signaling their continuing cluelessness that the deal itself was mistaken, not
the withdrawal. The JCPOA was riddled with flaws, but one original sin doomed
the entire enterprise to failure. If Biden acknowledged this reality, we might
be able to craft a new, broadly agreed U.S. policy. If not, get ready for
“Groundhog Day”-style failure.
That central error was allowing Iran any uranium enrichment capability, a bright
red line until the Obama administration. In seven resolutions from 2006 to 2010,
the United Nations’ Security Council demanded that Iran halt all uranium
enrichment, the physical work necessary to raise the concentration of uranium’s
fissile isotope, U235, to increasingly higher levels relative to non-fissile
U238. (In natural uranium, U235 occurs 0.7 percent of the time, while U238 is
99.3 percent.)
Earlier negotiators, following the Security Council’s resolutions, rejected all
Iranian demands to continue enrichment activity. During 2012, however, President
Obama bent his knee; the U.S. ultimately accepted Iran’s continued uranium
enrichment to reactor-grade levels (3-to-5 percent of U235) if Tehran would stop
enrichment to 20 percent (allegedly needed to fuel an aging research reactor).
This concession rested on fundamental misperceptions of what varying enrichment
levels mean. Obama’s negotiators feared that 20 percent enrichment was too close
to weapons-grade levels (typically, 90 percent U235), but asserted that limiting
Iran to reactor-grade enrichment would minimize the risks of “breaking out” to
nuclear weapons.
This was a critical mistake, one we must not repeat in a post-JCPOA world.
Enriching “merely” to reactor-grade levels accomplishes 70 percent of the work
required to reach weapons-grade uranium. Enriching from reactor-grade to 20
percent U235 means completing roughly 20 percent of the remaining work to reach
weapons-grade levels, by definition, therefore, closer to the danger point.
Far more important, however, and obvious except to Obama’s negotiators, is that
70 percent of the work is greater than 20 percent. If Iran were forbidden to
undertake the first 70 percent (i.e., to reactor-grade levels), the subsequent
20 percent would be irrelevant, as would be any higher U235 percentages.
Obama’s negotiators were blind to this point. They thus won a small negotiating
victory but lost the diplomatic war. By allowing reactor-grade enrichment, Obama
ensured Tehran would always be just baby steps from weapons-grade capabilities,
a lethal concession. His negotiators were wholly wrong, moreover, in believing
that reactor-grade levels (specifically, 3.5 percent in the JCPOA) were far
enough from weapons-grade that monitoring and constraints on production and
stockpiling would permit an effective international response before Iran could
break out to actual weapons.
But any possibility of restraining Iran by agreement requires effective
verification, which the JCPOA never supplied, demonstrated by Iran’s
restrictions on International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring. Equally
important, the additional time needed to reach weapons-grade levels from 3.5
percent rather than 20 percent enrichment is a matter of weeks, and depends more
on the number of centrifuges spinning than the variance between these starting
points. Moreover, in negotiating the JCPOA, Obama abandoned efforts to ascertain
the “prior military dimensions” of Iran’s nuclear program, contrary to French
and other public statements about needing to do just that.
Iran got what it wanted: No real disclosure of its prior military programs,
later revealed by a daring Israeli intelligence raid; no effective verification
of its JCPOA compliance; and, the jewel in the crown, license to do 70 percent
of the work toward weapons-grade uranium.
Looking ahead, Iran will flatly reject any deal not embodying these three
points, among others. The inescapable conclusion is that Tehran is so determined
to get nuclear weapons, and so practiced in deceit and deception, that the
regime cannot be allowed even “peaceful” nuclear programs.
Democrats worry their grip on Hispanic vote is loosening
Iran reportedly preparing for space launch amid nuclear talks
For decades, U.S. presidents have proclaimed it “unacceptable” for Iran to have
nuclear weapons. They said the same about North Korea. They largely failed with
North Korea, and are poised to fail with Iran, too. Economic sanctions, without
more, have failed — and China in particular is poised to buy all the oil Iran
can sell, and either veto or ignore future Security Council sanctions.
If a nuclear Iran is truly unacceptable, the only paths open are regime change
in Tehran and military/intelligence measures rendering Iran’s nuclear programs
harmless. Accordingly, and very late in the day, Washington must decide who will
win this contest of wills. Tehran is ahead. Over to you, Mr. President.
*John Bolton was national security adviser to President Trump from 2018 to 2019,
U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006 and held senior State
Department posts in 2001-2005 and 1985-1989. His most recent book is “The Room
Where It Happened" (2020). He is the founder of John Bolton Super PAC, a
political action committee supporting candidates who believe in a strong U.S.
foreign policy.
Gulf Arab states that opposed the Iran nuclear deal are
now courting Tehran
Karen DeYoung and Liz Sly/The Washington Post/December 13, 2021
Persian Gulf countries that once vociferously opposed the nuclear deal with Iran
now say they support its revival, even as they have embarked on their own
efforts to engage with Tehran during a period of uncertainty about U.S. staying
power in the region.
The Biden administration has expressed approval of what one senior official
described as a “quite striking” about-face, and credited it in large part to
U.S. diplomatic outreach.
The official pointed to a statement issued last month after talks between the
United States and the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council that urged a “mutual
return to full compliance with the JCPOA.” The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action between Iran and world powers began to fall apart when President Donald
Trump withdrew the United States from the pact.
But while regional governments share the administration’s desire to prevent Iran
from developing nuclear weapons, their enthusiasm for removing sanctions varies.
And any change in their perspective, according to regional officials and
experts, has as much to do with their unease about Washington as it does with
Tehran. Governments such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates worry that
failure to achieve a negotiated return to the original terms of the nuclear
agreement, in which the United States lifted economic sanctions in exchange for
strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities, could lead to a direct confrontation
between the United States and Israel against Iran, in which they would bear the
brunt of the conflict.
As Iran nuclear talks fail to make headway, Biden administration suggests
increasing openness to a Plan B
Their initial belief that the United States would protect them began to dissolve
under Trump, who courted their leaders but then seemed to lose interest in them,
and it has diminished further under President Biden.
Biden campaigned with a promise that the United States would no longer provide
Saudi Arabia with offensive weaponry to prosecute its war against Iranian-backed
Houthi rebels in neighboring Yemen, and would exact more of a price for Saudi
human rights abuses.
Shortly after he took office, Biden lifted the U.S. terrorist designation of the
Houthis, and promised to reinvigorate efforts to negotiate a settlement in the
war.
Those negotiations have achieved little so far. Last week, renewed Houthi
missile and drone attacks on Saudi territory were hailed in Iran, even as the
Saudis depleted their stocks of U.S.-supplied ground-launched missile
interceptors, and the Senate debated whether to disapprove a proposed
administration sale of air-to-air defensive weaponry.
Progress in the U.S. sale of F-35 Stealth aircraft to the Emirates, approved
under Trump as an incentive for their establishment of relations with Israel, is
now lagging amid disagreements over what sophisticated technology the United
States is willing to install in the planes.
“We want to measure twice and cut once,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price
said this past week of the pending UAE purchase. “There are still some things to
work out.”
The UAE this month signed a $20 billion deal to purchase 80 French fighter
planes.
The Gulf Arab states have long been more immediately concerned with Iran’s proxy
wars in the region and its development of ballistic missiles that can reach
their territory than with its nuclear program. Just as those issues were put
aside during the discussions over the original JCPOA, the United States and its
partners in the negotiations have said their first priority is to return to
compliance with the deal, with hopes to turn to other concerns later.
Iran has said it has no intention of discussing those regional issues at any
time.
Due in part to what they see as the lack of immediate U.S. concern about their
worries, the regional states have begun a new effort to set aside the
decades-old enmities that have helped fuel conflicts among them, officials in
the region say.
The most significant engagement came this past week with a visit to Tehran by
the UAE national security adviser, Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed al-Nahyan, who was
received by Iran’s new hard-line president, Ebrahim Raisi. It was the most
senior-level encounter between Iranian and Emirati officials in a decade, and
marked what one senior Iranian official called “a new chapter” in relations.
“We have taken steps to de-escalate tensions, as we have no interest in a
confrontation. The whole region would pay the price of such a confrontation for
decades to come,” Anwar Gargash, a senior UAE foreign policy adviser, told the
Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate conference ahead of the meeting.
Saudi Arabia has launched its own dialogue with Iran in Baghdad, mediated by the
Iraqi government. Those talks are ongoing, although they appear to have made
less progress.
The United States welcomes “any direct talks that lead to greater peace and
stability in the region,” Jennifer Gavito, the deputy assistant secretary of
state for Iran and Iraq, told CNBC in October.
The nuclear agreement, the subject of ongoing negotiations among its signers in
Vienna, is not the focus of the Arab talks, however. Arab officials have made it
clear that they are not prepared to serve as a conduit for parallel negotiations
around the nuclear deal, which could undercut the Vienna process, according to a
person familiar with the thinking of Gulf leaders.
Iran requested that they do so but was rebuffed, the person said.
Rather, the Gulf states have decided to independently pursue ways of averting
conflict, said Riad Kahwija, a Dubai-based defense consultant.
In addition to Iran, the Emiratis are also reaching out to Turkey and Syria —
from which they have been estranged for years — and to Qatar, where they joined
with Saudi Arabia in a 2017 Trump-fueled spat that resulted in severed
diplomatic relations.
This past week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi
ruler, made a major ice-breaking visit to Doha, the Qatari capital, part of a
Gulf-wide tour that some analysts interpreted as a move to solidify Saudi
dominance.
The chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, the failure of the United States
to respond to Houthi drone strikes against Saudi oil facilities and Riyadh, the
Saudi capital, along with signals of disinterest in the Middle East from
Washington have all contributed to a sense that Arab countries need to take
“preemptive” action, Kahwija said.
“Each country is trying to adopt policies that will secure their own interests,”
he said. “They are no longer tying their ship to the U.S. rope, because this
ship seems to be floating without direction in its dealings with Iran.”
Although Gulf countries were enraged by the failure of the Obama administration
to consult them on the terms of the original JCPOA, they have been somewhat
mollified by the extensive regional consultations undertaken by Biden on the
revived nuclear talks, said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a Dubai-based political
analyst. But their outreach to Iran “is not something American-driven. It’s
something the region is investing in regardless of whether there is a nuclear
deal or not,” Abdulla stressed. “We no longer take orders from Washington.”
U.S. officials have said that they believe the promise of increased economic
relations with others in the region is an incentive to Iran for the Vienna
negotiations to succeed. “Many of them are ready to trade with Iran the minute”
sanctions are lifted as part of an agreement, said one of several senior
administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity about the
sensitive diplomacy.
But the downside is an increase in U.S. sanctions if the talks go south. Gargash,
speaking this past week to the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said
that “there are already enough sanctions,” and expressed the hope that Iran
would respond to the “new environment” the Gulf States are trying to foster by
doing more on regional issues. Iran could be particularly helpful in pushing for
a cease-fire in Yemen, he said, while noting he has seen no real progress in
that direction.
Still, the Emirati shift has already resulted in a significant revival of its
trade with Iran, which plunged after the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal
but is now on track to exceed its pre-2018 levels by March, according to trade
figures from both countries.
Some of the increased trade suggests that the UAE, a regional banking hub, also
appears to be playing a role in helping Iran access foreign currency by
facilitating Iranian oil exports to China, said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, who
heads the London-based Bourse and Bazaar think tank and is a visiting fellow at
the European Council on Foreign Relations. Although the moves technically
violate U.S. sanctions, the Biden administration appears to have turned a blind
eye, he said.
The U.S. Must Better Explain Al-Qaeda to the Public
Thomas Joscelyn/The Dispatch/December 13, 2021
The government is doing too little to inform Americans about the threats
presented by suspected terrorists it is targeting.
On December 3, the U.S. military targeted a suspected “senior al-Qaeda leader
and planner” in a drone strike near the city of Idlib in northwestern Syria. The
bombing proved to be controversial almost immediately. The alleged jihadist was
traveling on a motorbike near a car carrying a family of six, all of whom were
wounded in the blast. A 10-year-old boy reportedly suffered the worst injuries,
including to his head.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) quickly recognized that the drone strike,
launched by a MQ-9 Reaper, may have caused unintended civilian casualties. “We
abhor the loss of innocent life and take all possible measures to prevent them,”
Capt. Bill Urban, a CENTCOM spokesperson, said in a statement. “We are
initiating a full investigation of the allegations and will release the results
when appropriate.” Before CENTCOM could release its findings, pictures of the
family and their damaged car circulated online, meaning the public could draw
its own conclusions.
The U.S. military has hunted senior al-Qaeda personnel in Syria for years, but
often provides few details concerning those targeted. This is a problem.
Civilians are being killed in U.S. drone strikes in Syria and elsewhere, but the
U.S. government often does not provide clear justifications for those bombings
in the first place. Sometimes it is clear why an al-Qaeda figure was targeted.
On other occasions, however, it isn’t obvious at all.
The December 3 air strike is a case in point. During a press briefing on
December 6, Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby explained that the target was a man
known as Musab Kinan and he was “a senior leader with Hurras al-Din, which is an
al-Qaeda affiliated group.” Other reports disputed this version, saying Kinan
was a former member of Hurras al-Din, but not currently active within the
organization.
Either way, the truth is we know little about Musab Kinan or why he was
targeted. A family was wounded in the bombing, but we have no idea why the U.S.
military thought it was necessary to incur this risk.
The U.S. likes to target terrorists driving alone, or with other suspected
terrorists. This is suspposed to minimize the risk to others. Kinan was riding
alone on a motorcycle. But even in this instance there was the potential to do
harm to others nearby. Drone strikes are intended to minimize collateral damage,
but even the most careful operator is going to make mistakes and there are going
to be unintended consequences.
Hurras al-Din (HAD), meaning the “Guardians of Religion,” is indeed an al-Qaeda
group. HAD openly signals its loyalty to al-Qaeda’s top men in its media and
messaging. And while Kinan was an obscure figure and previously unknown to the
public, other HAD leaders are well-known al-Qaeda veterans.
In early 2018, HAD broke away from the much larger Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),
which was formerly an official al-Qaeda branch. There is still much we don’t
know about the disputes between the two and the role played by al-Qaeda’s senior
leadership. But HAD is thought to have a few thousand members in Syria.
Why did Kinan command the U.S. government’s attention? We don’t know. Beyond his
alleged role within HAD, the U.S. military hasn’t offered any details concerning
his activities. Did he specifically threaten the U.S. or American interests in
some fashion? Again, we don’t know.
And this isn’t the first time the U.S. has offered little information about a
target in Syria or elsewhere.
In September, CENTCOM said it targeted another senior “senior al-Qaeda leader”
in Idlib, Syria. “Initial indications are that we struck the individual we were
aiming for, and there are no indications of civilian casualties as a result of
the strike,” LT Josie Lynne Lenny said in a statement. That was it – no other
information was provided. We learned the identity of the target, another HAD
figure, only because jihadists discussed the airstrike on social media.
In October, the U.S. killed still another “senior al-Qaeda leader” in a MQ-9
Reaper strike in Syria. That jihadist was identified as a man known as Abdul
Hamid al-Matar. CENTCOM’s announcement provided a bit more justification for
targeting al-Matar, but still offered only generalities. CENTCOM explained that
al-Qaeda “continues to present a threat to America and our allies” and is using
“Syria as a safe haven to rebuild, coordinate with external affiliates, and plan
external operations.”
“Al-Qaeda also uses Syria as a base for threats reaching into Syria, Iraq and
beyond,” the statement read. “The removal of this al-Qaeda senior leader [al-Matar]
will disrupt the terrorist organization’s ability to further plot and carry out
global attacks threatening U.S. citizens, our partners, and innocent civilians.”
Still, the U.S. military didn’t elaborate on Abdul Hamid al-Matar’s specific
role within al-Qaeda, or why he was thought to present a threat to Americans.
The media and various non-governmental organizations understandably scrutinize
American airstrikes for civilian casualties. In September, the New York Times
reported that the U.S. military’s airstrike in Kabul during America’s chaotic
withdrawal hadn’t killed an ISIS planner, as the government claimed, but instead
an innocent man and his family. Only then did the U.S. military admit it was a
“tragic mistake.” Two months later, the New York Times reported that dozens of
civlians were killed when the U.S. bombed one of the Islamic State’s last
strongholds in Baghuz, Syria in March 2019. This prompted CENTCOM to acknowledge
the misbegotten strikes “for the first time.”
But there is another aspect of America’s ongoing drone campaign that deserves
additional scrutiny. The U.S. government does an exceptionally poor job of
explaining al-Qaeda to the public. So we often don’t know much about the alleged
terrorists who are being hunted in the first place.
Thomas Joscelyn is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
and the Senior Editor for FDD’s Long War Journal. Follow Tom on Twitter @thomasjoscelyn.
FDD is a Washington, DC-based, non-partisan research institute focusing on
national security and foreign policy.
Turkey not yet ready to give up on Muslim Brotherhood
Pinar Tremblay/Al-Monitor/December 13/2021
Turkey has shown a willingness to repair relations with Israel, Egypt, and other
countries in the Middle East. But Ankara’s relations with the Muslim
Brotherhood, a sticking point for almost all of these bilateral ties, are more
complicated than meets the eye.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has often said that he wants to reconcile
with the Gulf countries, Egypt and Israel. On Dec 7, Erdogan reiterated that
better relations with Israel would benefit the regional peace.
But all these countries would like Ankara to curb its enthusiasm for the Muslium
Brotherhood (MB), a global organization with different groups and political
entities under its broad umbrella. MB has been declared a terrorist organization
in countries such as Egypt, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE and Syria. Turkey
has become a hub for exiled MB members after the Arab Spring. And today as
Turkey wants to rebuild relations in the region, its support for MB is a major
issue.
Since 2013, Qatar and Turkey have emerged as main supporters of MB. Unlike
Qatar, whose support was mostly financial, Ankara’s relations are multilayered
and complex. Reports have emerged that Israel has asked Turkey to close Hamas
offices in Istanbul. But a senior bureaucrat, speaking on condition of anonymity
in Ankara, told Al Monitor, “This is not even an option open for negotiation for
us.”
In Turkey, MB has domestic support and organic growth. Erdogan’s pragmatism is
well known, but on MB issues over the last two decades his support has not
wavered.
But Turkey’s foreign policy options in the Middle East are dwindling. Ankara
wants to break its isolated stand. Erdogan’s need for higher domestic approval
compels him to speak more amicably about different Middle Eastern rivals.
Turkey’s bargaining chips are scarce, and its support for MB is probably one of
the few that still matters. But although it may be willing to agree to curb
activities of certain MB opposition voices, for Ankara it is too soon and too
risky to cut off links with MB.
Even if Ankara has the political will to end its support, what would happen to
homegrown MB? The senior bureaucrat commented, “If we close Hamas’s offices and
expel members of MB, then what will be the next demand, shut down IHH and others
and prosecute them?
MB’s reach is wider than meets the eye. In May 2010, the Mavi Marmara flotilla
was raided by Israeli commandos, and 10 Turkish citizens were killed in a
mission to end the Gaza blockade. That ship was owned by IHH, Humanitarian
Relief Organization, a Turkish Islamist NGO active in over 115 countries. Israel
declared IHH a terrorist organization in 2008 because of IHH’s support for Hamas
to fund its military activities. Indeed, IHH was under legal scrutiny in the
1990s, before AKP assumed power.
AKP has allowed several Islamic organizations to operate freely, filling in gaps
for education and for social and economic aid both at home and abroad. IHH, for
instance, is a force to be reckoned with for any politician. At the end of
November, four young IHH volunteers lost their lives in a car accident, and
their funerals drew condolences for IHH from all political party leaders and
different Islamist NGOs.
On Nov. 29, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu tweeted support for
Palestine. Yet Turkey’s support for Palestinians is neither unconditional nor
for all Palestinians. Since 2019, Turkey has a $700,000 bounty on Mohammed
Dahlan, a former Fatah leader who fled to UAE. Dahlan is seen as Hamas’ rival in
Gaza. Given Turkey's economic and regional struggles, it would be unrealistic to
expect an expansion of support for Hamas, but Ankara is not yet ready to bid
Hamas goodbye.
Erdogan’s recent meetings with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan,
crown prince of UAE, give the illusion of Turkey’s willingness to realign its
policies in the region. However, a senior Turkish diplomat who spoke on
condition of anonymity said, “Turkey’s ‘good relations’ with any Middle Eastern
country is like a sandcastle on the beach. Only a matter of time for the next
wave to knock it over.” He added that “Qatar’s dependency on Turkey is
diminishing fast as they go back into the GCC fold. Now, people should be aware
all Turkey is left with is MB, therefore, I expect a stronger embrace, maybe
less visible, less audible but definitely MB is the best tool and ally Turkey
has right now.”
Vienna and the Shadow Negotiations
Tariq Al-Homayed/December 13/2021
There are two kinds of negotiations with Iran for a nuclear deal. We have the
negotiations of the meeting in Vienna and what I called the Vienna meeting’s
shadow negotiations. The former is attended by Iran, the US and Western powers.
As for the negotiations in the Vienna meeting’s shadows, they are an effort by
Israel to convince the United States and Western powers that the time has come
to take decisive steps against Iran, from economic sanctions to military
strikes. Of course, we cannot rely on what the administration is now saying, but
we must read developments according to the statements being issued and the
information coming out while keeping in mind that the United States has been
adopting a lenient position to ensure that a deal with Iran is reached, whatever
the cost.
The shadow negotiations led by Israel put pressure on both Washington and
Tehran. It seems that Israel is making progress on this front, as the Israeli
defense minister and the director of the Mossad are visiting Washington to
discuss the deal. According to Israeli media reports, the minister and the
Mossad chief will try to push Washington to take military action against Iranian
interests, not necessarily targeting nuclear facilities, to send a message that
the US administration is serious about preventing Iran from reaching the
“nuclear threshold.”
All that comes after Reuters quoted a senior US official, without naming him, as
saying that American and Israeli defense leaders would discuss the prospect of
military exercises in preparation for destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities if
the worst-case scenario played out and diplomacy failed.
There is also the declaration by the White House, according to the AFP, that
President Biden has begun making “preparations” from the possibility of
diplomatic means failing. Thus, these shadow negotiations are becoming very
serious. All right, what about our region and Iran? Where can it strike Iranian
interests? Those following the joint statements issued during Saudi Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman’s visits to Gulf Cooperation Council countries will find
that their stance on Iran is aligned.
The Gulf countries are making clear demands regarding the need to reach a
serious nuclear deal, preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and the
need to confront Iran’s regional projects and ballistic missile program.
Regarding Iran and strikes to undermine its interests without targeting nuclear
facilities, it is clear that Iran has adopted a policy of negotiating the
nuclear issue on the brink and that its eyes are more focused on the inside than
they are on Israel or US because the regime is incapable of being moderate.
Iran’s interests in the region are spread across four countries, what Karim
Sadjadpour calls the axis of aggrieved nations, with militias being present in
Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Recent reports have claimed that Israel has destroyed
two-thirds of the Iranian weapons in Syria, and so Iranian interests are
expected to be the first target, with targets in Yemen and Iraq likely to show
the seriousness of its effort to confront Iran. Nonetheless, we cannot overlook
what Israel is doing in Iran itself, whether it is military or intelligence
operations. And so, we are looking at what I call the negotiations in the Vienna
meeting’s shadows, and their outcomes might emerge faster than those expected
from the Vienna meeting itself.