English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 11/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
No one who believes in him will be put to shame. For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved
Letter to the Romans 10/01-13/:”Brothers and sisters, my heart’s desire and prayer to God for them is that they may be saved. I can testify that they have a zeal for God, but it is not enlightened. For, being ignorant of the righteousness that comes from God, and seeking to establish their own, they have not submitted to God’s righteousness. For Christ is the end of the law so that there may be righteousness for everyone who believes. Moses writes concerning the righteousness that comes from the law, that ‘the person who does these things will live by them.’ But the righteousness that comes from faith says, ‘Do not say in your heart, “Who will ascend into heaven?” ’ (that is, to bring Christ down) ‘or “Who will descend into the abyss?” ’ (that is, to bring Christ up from the dead). But what does it say? ‘The word is near you, on your lips and in your heart’ (that is, the word of faith that we proclaim); because if you confess with your lips that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved. For one believes with the heart and so is justified, and one confesses with the mouth and so is saved. The scripture says, ‘No one who believes in him will be put to shame.’ For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.’”

Question: "What was the star of Bethlehem?"
GotQuestions.org?/December 10/2021
Answer: The star of Bethlehem is associated with the birth of Christ and the visit of the magi (wise men) as recorded in Matthew 2:1–12. The text implies the star of Bethlehem appeared only to the magi in the East (most likely the area of Persia, or modern-day Iran). There is no biblical record of anyone else observing the star of Bethlehem.
The magi in the East saw something in the heavens—the star of Bethlehem—that alerted them to the fact that the Jewish Messiah was born. The magi do not call the star of Bethlehem by that name; in Matthew 2:2 they refer to it as being “his star,” since it was a sign to them that a king was born. The star prompted the magi to travel to Jerusalem, the capital of Israel. This would be the logical place to start looking for the birth of the King of the Jews for someone who did not know of Micah’s prophecy about Bethlehem.
In Jerusalem, the magi visited King Herod and were told that the new king they were looking for would be born in Bethlehem, not in Jerusalem (Matthew 2:5). The wise men left Herod’s palace, and the star of Bethlehem appeared to them once again. In fact, the star “went ahead of them until it stopped over the place where the child was. When they saw the star, they were overjoyed” (verses 9–10). The star of Bethlehem, apparently mobile, led the magi to the precise place where they could find Jesus.
Modern portrayals of the Christmas nativity scene usually show the wise men visiting Jesus on the night of His birth. That is likely not what truly occurred. King Herod discovered from the magi the “exact time” the star of Bethlehem had first appeared to them (Matthew 2:7), and he later ordered all male children two years old and under in Bethlehem to be killed (verse 16). Herod obviously thought the star of Bethlehem had first appeared when Christ was born; if he was right, then Jesus could have been up to two years old when the star of Bethlehem later guided the magi through the streets of Bethlehem. The Greek word translated “young child” in Matthew 2:9 can mean anything from a newborn infant to a toddler.
So, the magi may have first observed the star of Bethlehem the night of Jesus’ birth, or they may have first seen it up to two years beforehand. Either way, they found Jesus still in Bethlehem when they arrived. Joseph and Mary almost surely stayed in Bethlehem until Mary could travel again. In fact, they probably stayed there for the 40 days necessary to complete Mary’s purification. From Bethlehem, they could easily make the five-mile trip to Jerusalem for the sacrifice for Mary’s purification (Luke 2:22). The fact that the magi came to a “house” (Matthew 2:11) rather than the stable makes sense because Joseph naturally would have moved his family to a more protected place as soon as possible—the morning after Jesus was born, in all probability.
After seeing the star of Bethlehem, the magi traveled to Jerusalem to look for the Messiah. The question arises, how would Persian magi know about the Jewish Messiah? Undoubtedly, they would have been exposed to the writings of the Jewish prophet Daniel, who had been the chief of the court seers in Persia. Daniel 9:24–27 is a prophecy that gives a timeline for the birth of the Messiah. Also, they may have been aware of the words of the pagan prophet Balaam (who was from the town of Pethor on the Euphrates River near Persia) in Numbers 24:17. Balaam’s prophecy specifically mentions “a star” and “a scepter” rising out of Jacob.
What exactly was the star of Bethlehem? The Greek word translated “star” in the text is the word aster, which is the normal word for a star or celestial body. The word is used 24 times in the New Testament, and most of the time it refers to a celestial body. It can be used to denote angels, as in Revelation 12:4, where aster seems to refer to the fallen angels who followed Satan’s rebellion. Basic rules of biblical interpretation state that we should take the normal sense of a word unless there is compelling evidence to suggest otherwise. In that case, the star of Bethlehem should be considered an actual heavenly body. Many Bible scholars suggest a natural explanation for the star of Bethlehem, their theories ranging from a supernova to a comet to an alignment of planets. Something in the heavens provided a brighter-than-normal light in the sky.
However, there is evidence to suggest that the star of Bethlehem was not a natural stellar phenomenon, but something unexplained by science. First, the fact that the star of Bethlehem seemed to appear only to the magi indicates that this was no ordinary star. Also, celestial bodies normally move from east to west due to the earth’s rotation, yet the star of Bethlehem led the magi from Jerusalem south to Bethlehem. Not only that, but it led them directly to the place where Joseph and Mary were staying, stopping overhead. There is no natural stellar phenomenon that can do that.
So, if the normal usage of the word star doesn’t fit the context, what does? The star of Bethlehem in Matthew 2:1–12 was likely an angel or a manifestation of the Shekinah Glory. The Shekinah, which literally means “dwelling of God,” was the visible presence of the Lord. Prior to this, the most notable appearance of the Shekinah was the pillar of cloud that led the Israelites by day and the pillar of fire that led them by night (Exodus 13:21). The Shekinah can obviously lead people to specific locations, and it was seen later in connection with Christ’s ministry (e.g., Matthew 17:5; Acts 1:9). Either an angel or the Shekinah would fit the evidence. It shouldn’t surprise us that God would use a miraculous sign to signal the advent of His Son into the world. Those with eyes to see joyfully beheld His glory.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 10-11/2021
Lebanese Pound Nosedives after Central Bank Move
Saudi FM Says 'No Crisis between KSA and Lebanon'
'Unexpected Surprise' Might Resolve Govt. Deadlock
Berri Launches Fierce Attack on 'Conspirator' Bitar
Bitar Demands 'Immediate' Arrest of Ali Hassan Khalil
Father of Port Blast Victim Files Recusal Request against Bitar
4 Port Blast Detainees File Complaint to U.N. Arbitrary Detention Body
Deaths, Injuries in Hamas Arms Blast in al-Bourj al-Shamali
Anger in Lebanon as Palestinian refugees granted work rights
Lebanon’s PM Says He Asked Egypt for Support to Generate Electricity
Lukewarm Saudi response makes Macron's Lebanon initiative a non-starter
Disarray of Lebanon’s public sector breeds further corruption
EU Adopts Equivalence Decision for Lebanon on Digital COVID Certificate
Shea Presents U.S. Anticorruption Award to Riad Kobeissi
Lebanese Join Mideast Migrants to Europe, as Crisis Deepens
The nitrate government still rules over us/Mariam Kesserwan/Now Lebanon
Will Lebanon extend President Aoun’s term in 2022?/Sami Moubayed/Gulf News
Mar Mikhael’s secret garden: Inside Beirut’s last orchard/Mohamad El Chamaa/L'Orient Today

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 10-11/2021
Papal delegation attends inauguration of Gulf’s largest cathedral in Bahrain
Amnesty International launches Persian site amid Iran’s ‘escalating crisis of impunity’
One Year On, Iranian Dissident’s Execution Rattles Exiles
BBC Calls on Iran to End Campaign against Its Staff
Saudi Crown Prince, Bahrain’s King Review Historic Ties Between the Two Countries
US Congress Supports Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia
Sisi Receives Israel’s FM, Underscores Commitment to ‘Two-State Solution’
Arab Coalition Strikes Kill 145 Houthi Militants, One 'Hezbollah' Military Expert in Yemen's Marib
Aid Groups Warn of Rise in Darfur Violence, Dozens Killed
Biden's Summit for Democracy sparks questions in Middle East
Sudan Youth Radio Muzzled for 6 Weeks After Coup
France, NATO Urge Russia to Turn Back to Diplomacy
US Commander: Al-Qaeda Numbers in Afghanistan Up 'Slightly'
Canada imposes additional sanctions on entities affiliated with Myanmar military regime
Canada/Statement on Human Rights Day

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 10-11/2021
Understanding the Arab Strategy Towards Israel/Mordechai Nisan/New Englishg Review/December 2021
Iran: Exporting Oil or Revolution?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 10/ 2021
Olympic Boycotts Put China In a Quandary/Adam Minter/Bloomberg/Friday, 10 December, 2021
The Dhimmitude of the West: A New Trajectory?/Mark Durie/Markdurie.com/Middle East Forum
US pursuit of democracy in Mideast shows clear signs of fatigue/Oussama Romdhani/The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
War and peace in the showdown with Iran/Ali Sarraf/The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 10-11/2021
Lebanese Pound Nosedives after Central Bank Move
Agence France Presse/December 10/2021 
The Lebanese currency has plummeted on the black market after the central bank raised the exchange rate for U.S. dollar deposits held in the country's banks. "The central bank... has decided to raise the exchange rate for U.S. dollars from 3,900 to 8,000 Lebanese pounds," it said in a statement.
This new parallel rate affects dollar deposits that have been trapped in Lebanese banks by a capital controls policy that prevents people from withdrawing their savings. Depositors will now be allowed to withdraw limited amounts of their dollar deposits in Lebanese pounds at double the previous rate.
The move amounts to de facto recognition of the Lebanese pound's devaluation. The pound had been pegged -- and officially still is -- to the dollar since 1997 at a rate of 1,500. News of the central bank devaluation had an immediate ripple effect on the black market value of the pound which started slipping back towards last month's record of 25,700 to the dollar. "The market reaction has already started and the Lebanese pound continues its decline," financial analyst Henri Chaoul told AFP, criticizing what he described as the latest in a string of "unilateral and palliative measures".
Mike Azar, another financial analyst, said the new measure "will result in additional losses to the central bank and, by definition, further currency devaluation." Some observers predict the Lebanese pound could drop to a rate of 40,000 against the dollar or worse in the coming weeks.
The financial crisis that started in 2019 is the worst in the country's history and has left four in five Lebanese living under the poverty line.

Saudi FM Says 'No Crisis between KSA and Lebanon'
Naharnet/December 10/2021 
"There is no crisis between KSA and Lebanon," Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud told Kuwait's al-Qabas newspaper. Bin Farhan elaborated that the "crisis in Lebanon is between Hizbullah and the Lebanese people."He added that the Lebanese government should show "acts, not words," stressing that "real reforms should be done."

'Unexpected Surprise' Might Resolve Govt. Deadlock
Naharnet/December 10/2021
"An unexpected surprise" might lead to resolving the Cabinet crisis, a ministerial source said. The source told al-Liwaa newspaper, in remarks published Friday, that "the Shiite duo's condition to dismiss lead investigator into the Beirut port blast Judge Tarek Bitar might be settled." The deadlock might be unexpectedly solved, the same way Information Minister George Kordahi's resignation came as a surprising exit to a complicated row between Lebanon and the Gulf countries, the source said.

Berri Launches Fierce Attack on 'Conspirator' Bitar
Naharnet/December 10/2021
Speaker Nabih Berri has launched a fierce attack on Beirut port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar, describing him as a “conspirator.”Refusing to be blamed for the suspension of Cabinet sessions, Berri accused Bitar of being responsible for “all these judicial complications and what resulted from them, due to his mishandling of the file.” Slamming the judge as a “conspirator,” the Speaker charged that Bitar is “executing orders and receiving instructions that have undermined the course of the investigation into the port bombing.”

Bitar Demands 'Immediate' Arrest of Ali Hassan Khalil
Agence France Presse/December 10/2021
The Lebanese judge charged with investigating the Beirut port blast, Tarek Bitar, demanded Friday the immediate arrest of a former minister who has refused to appear before court, a judicial source said. The investigation into the massive explosion at Beirut port on August 4, 2020 resumed Wednesday after a two-month hiatus caused by multiple lawsuits seen as seeking to hamper the work of Bitar. The judiciary rejected the lawsuits against the judge -- filed primarily by senior political figures who have been targeted in his investigation -- allowing Bitar to resume his work. His first task was to submit to the top prosecutor an arrest warrant against former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil, the judicial source said on condition of anonymity. Bitar demanded the "immediate" arrest of Khalil, who is considered the right hand man of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri who heads the Amal Movement.
The director-general of the Interior Security Forces, Maj. Gen. Imad Othman, had refused an earlier request for the arrest of Khalil, citing an article of the constitution. "The refusal of a security apparatus to implement an arrest warrant constitutes a dangerous precedent that goes against the decisions of the judicial authority," the source said. In a country where political leaders determine judicial appointments, including in top courts, there is little room for the judiciary to work against Lebanon's ruling elite. Bitar's determination to question senior officials over the blast has earned him the respect of the victims' families -- and the enmity of the political elite, particularly the Shiite alliance of Hizbullah and Amal. Deadly clashes broke out in October after the two Shiite parties called for his removal as head of the probe. The two parties have since prevented the Lebanese cabinet from meeting in a bid to force Bitar's removal. The 2020 blast killed 216 people and injured more than 6,500 others, destroying much of the Beirut port and devastating entire neighborhoods of the capital. The explosion was caused by a huge stockpile of ammonium nitrate that had been improperly stored at the port for years, prompting accusations of gross negligence on the part of the authorities.

Father of Port Blast Victim Files Recusal Request against Bitar
Naharnet/December 10/2021
Youssef al-Mawla, the father of one of Beirut port blast victims, filed Friday a recusal request against the port blast investigator Judge Tarek Bitar. Al-Mawla's lawyer Salman Barakat filed on Friday morning the recusal request before the Criminal Court of Cassation headed by Judge Randa Kfoury.
The lawsuit accused Bitar of “causing delays in the investigation" and "hindering it" due to the judge's "selectivity in summoning some suspects and overlooking others,” the lawsuit stated.

4 Port Blast Detainees File Complaint to U.N. Arbitrary Detention Body
Naharnet/December 10/2021
Beirut port blast detainees Shafik Merhi, Badri Daher, Hassan Koraytem and Hanna Fares on Friday filed a complaint to the U.N. Working Group on Arbitrary Detention. The move coincides with the international Human Rights Day. The complaint was filed through the lawyer Rachel Lindon, who is a criminal law expert and a member of the Paris, Madrid and ICC bar associations. It says that the four detainees “are being detained by the Lebanese government in an arbitrary and illegal manner,” without being allowed to “defend themselves” nor to “effectively challenge the legality of the measures that have been taken against them.”“This contradicts with the rules of justice,” the complaint says. The four detainees “were first interrogated without the presence of their lawyers and they later appeared before a judge within unjustified timeframes. The detainees have also never been able to reach the file or the documents related to their detention,” the complaint explains. It also criticizes “the interference of the political class with the aim of obstructing any possibility to try them in an independent and impartial manner in this case,” noting that the complaint is “not asking the U.N. to determine the responsibilities regarding this massive blast that targeted Beirut,” but is rather asking it to “reaffirm that governments cannot mend the wounds of a certain country through unrightfully imprisoning individuals deemed to be guilty only because of their jobs, while the political class is being spared of any responsibility.”At least 216 people died in the explosion, caused by the detonation of hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a warehouse for years, apparently with the knowledge of senior politicians and security officials who did nothing about it. The explosion also injured 6,000 people and destroyed parts of the city. More than a year after the government launched a judicial investigation, nearly everything else remains unknown -- from who ordered the shipment to why officials ignored repeated warnings of the danger.

Deaths, Injuries in Hamas Arms Blast in al-Bourj al-Shamali
Naharnet/December 10/2021
Several explosions shook a Hamas arms depot in the Palestinian refugee camp of al-Bourj al-Shamali in southern Lebanon on Friday night, causing deaths and injuries, Lebanon’s National News Agency said. Ambulances rushed to the scene as initial reports said a fire had started in a diesel tanker and spread to a nearby mosque controlled by Hamas. The fire triggered explosions of weapons that were stored inside the mosque, residents said. The NNA said the army cordoned off the area, preventing people from entering or leaving the camp. The blasts were heard across the city of Tyre and the neighboring towns. South Attorney General Judge Rahif Ramadan meanwhile tasked security agencies and bomb technicians with inspecting the depot as a probe was launched into the incident to unveil its circumstances, the agency added. Lebanon is home to tens of thousands of Palestinians refugees and their decedents. Many live in the 12 refugee camps that are scattered around the small country.

Anger in Lebanon as Palestinian refugees granted work rights
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 10, 2021
Lebanon has issued a decree granting Palestinian refugees access to jobs in the country
BEIRUT: Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram finalized the decision on Wednesday, but it has been met with criticism, particularly from the Christian right, which has launched a campaign against the minister. The decision allows Palestinian refugees — many of whom are doctors, lawyers and nurses — to work in the managerial, business, tourism, industrial, information, health, education and service sectors. It includes “Palestinians born in Lebanese territories, born to a Lebanese mother or married to a Lebanese citizen, and non-registered Palestinians who were born in Lebanon,” but forbids them from joining state security services or free profession syndicates. Major political parties and figures criticized Palestinian refugees and condemned the decision, warning that it was the beginning of a push for naturalization. Gebran Bassil, head of the Free Patriotic Movement, said: “The decision violates the labor law and the constitution. It is veiled naturalization and it is rejected.”In a tweet, he called on labor syndicates to reject the decree and urged the Lebanese public to ignore it. “This is unacceptable and we will not allow the stealing of jobs from Lebanese in such circumstances,” he said.
Former labor minister Sejaan Kazzi said that Bayram’s decision “contradicts the decision issued in 2015,” adding: “This new resolution will increase the Lebanese people’s unemployment rate by 40 percent and open the door to settlement and naturalization.”The Kataeb Party said: “Instead of Bayram increasing the opportunities for Lebanese people to prevent their state of destitution — with hundreds of them being laid off — he allowed non-Lebanese to compete with them for their livelihoods.”A source examining the right of Palestinian refugees to work in Lebanon told Arab News that former labor minister Trad Hamadeh tried to push through a similar decree that was canceled by the next prime minister.
The source said: “There is no specific mechanism for the adoption of a ministerial decree. “Bayram’s decision does not affect Palestinians whose specializations require membership in powerful syndicates. These syndicates also prevent Lebanese who are not members from practicing their professions.
“This decision only allows the use of Palestinian labor in professions that do not require advanced degrees. These are modest craft and manual professions that the Lebanese do not want to work in. “Simultaneously, this decision prevents a social crisis in the camps as a result of the economic collapse and many unemployed young Palestinians turning to drugs and theft. In other words, it is a decision to defuse the situation.
“Palestinian refugees contribute to Lebanon’s economy; thousands of them are paid in dollars by the Palestine Liberation Organization or international organizations and they spend their money in Lebanon.” In a press conference on Friday, Bayram said: “What was prohibited by the constitution and laws is still prohibited for the non-Lebanese. Foreign workers in all sectors work under an exception license issued by the labor minister. However, the Lebanese people have the priority in all professions.”He added: “90 percent of people criticizing us have not read the whole decision. The Lebanese worker holds the priority, and the exception is granted to the foreign worker. Some sectors do not appeal to the Lebanese, such as the construction and agriculture sector, where we gave foreign workers priority. “The decree gives Palestinians privileges by exempting them from having a work permit and allowing them membership of social security. We are in trouble in the job market and trying to fill the gaps. The Lebanese market needs foreign labor.”
On social media, FPM supporters launched a campaign against Bayram. Some activists referred to the employment of “strangers,” a term that was used to describe Palestinian refugees during the civil war. Separately, at the end of his tour in Lebanon to examine the Palestinian refugee situation, UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini said: “The living conditions in the camps continues to deteriorate, and Palestinians, who are some of the most marginalized groups in Lebanon, are now extremely desperate, frustrated and angry.” He added: “I met graduates whose only hope for a better future is to emigrate. I met a young father who has nightmares about how to buy milk for his child. I heard of a man who killed his wife because she shared the family’s food basket with neighbors who were hungry. In addition, there is an increased child labor rate, divorce and the collapse of the social fabric.”Lazzarini welcomed any measures that would ease restrictions on the rights of Palestinian refugees and promised to “make an effort to increase the required funding.” He said: “The economic and financial collapse in Lebanon was accompanied by the UNRWA’s financial difficulties in maintaining the basic services of refugees, such as education, health and social networking.”

Lebanon’s PM Says He Asked Egypt for Support to Generate Electricity
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on his Facebook official account on Friday that he had requested support from Egypt in the field of natural gas to urgently generate electricity. Lebanon is grappling with crippling economic and fuel crises and has struggled with meager supplies of state-generated power for months. There has been little progress since PM Mikati’s government was appointed in September after more than a year of political deadlock that compounded the crisis. This came after Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi on Thursday affirmed his country’s keenness on the security and stability of Lebanon and on sparing Beirut the dangers of conflicts in the region. During a meeting with Lebanese Mikati in Cairo, Sisi hailed Egyptian-Lebanese relations at the official and popular levels. He then ordered the urgent supply of gas to Lebanon to help solve the country’s power shortage. Mikati arrived on Thursday in Cairo where he held talks with the Egyptian President, in the presence of Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouli, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and the general intelligence chief, Abbas Kamel.
During the meeting, Sisi expressed Egypt's keenness on the security and stability of Lebanon to achieve the interests of the Arab country, stave off more conflicts in the region and help the Lebanese people maintain the unity and protect the national fabric of their country. Presidential spokesman Bassam Rady said the meeting between the two men also dealt with the latest developments on the Lebanese arena and the means to develop relations between the two countries.
For his part, the Lebanese Prime Minister lauded Egypt's tireless and sincere efforts to mobilize international support for Lebanon, in light of the continuing difficult challenges facing the Lebanese people, particularly at the political and economic levels. Mikati went on to emphasize Lebanon's pride in the strong historical relations, based on foundations of solidarity and fraternity, that bind the two brotherly countries. He also highlighted his country's appreciation for the vital role Egypt plays as a cornerstone for maintaining stability in Lebanon and in the Arab region as a whole. The Lebanese PM then held talks with his Egyptian counterpart at the Egyptian government headquarters in Cairo, in the presence of Lebanese diplomatic advisor Boutros Assaker. Later, Mikati visited the headquarters of the Arab League from which he thanked Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit for his efforts in unifying the Arab stance and constantly supporting Lebanon. The Secretary-General expressed the league’s continuous support for Lebanon to get out of its deep crisis that the people are suffering from. An official source at the AL General Secretariat quoted Aboul Gheit as confirming that “achieving internal consensus should not be a window to disrupt the reform measures demanded by the Lebanese and international community.”

Lukewarm Saudi response makes Macron's Lebanon initiative a non-starter
The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
Analysts see a continuing difference of approach towards Lebanon between Saudi Arabia and France.
Saudi Arabia is said to have appointed a chargé d’affaires to Lebanon in a move betraying a lukewarm response to French President Emmanuel Macron's call on Riyadh, during his recent visit to the Gulf region, to join forces with France in a search for political and economic solutions in Lebanon. A Gulf source told The Arab Weekly that the Saudi decision is just a "token move" out of courtesy to Paris because Riyadh does not believe anything can change in Lebanon as long as Hezbollah and its patron, Iran, remain in control. The source considered the lower diplomatic representation, from ambassador to chargé d'affaires, a clear Saudi response to Lebanese attempts to have the kingdom end its trade boycott and to instead provide it with aid. Riyadh sees no point in mediation as long as the Lebanese political class chooses to stand by Hezbollah and its agenda.
The French president announced in Jeddah on Saturday that he had made a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, as part of an initiative aimed at resolving the crisis between Riyadh and Beirut.
The French president said before leaving Saudi Arabia at the conclusion of a short Gulf tour, that "Saudi Arabia and France want to fully engage" in the process of re-establishing the relationship between Riyadh and Beirut in the wake of the recent diplomatic dispute.
"With Saudi Arabia, we have made commitments towards Lebanon: to work together, to support reforms, to enable the country to emerge from the crisis and preserve its sovereignty," Macron said on Twitter.
However, no Saudi comment was issued in support of Macron's words, which shows that the initiative was a French idea that was subsequently presented to the Saudis. The absence of any reaction to Macron's statement by Riyadh reflected the lack of Saudi endorsement of the French initiative, according to diplomatic analysts. The analysts see a difference of approach towards Lebanon between Saudi Arabia and France. Paris wants to preserve its historical influence in Lebanon and appear as the party that has the confidence of everyone, including Hezbollah and behind it, Iran. But it is unable to provide help on the level which the Lebanese seek, so it has tried to persuade Riyadh to return to Lebanon as a donor country.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is no longer satisfied with playing the role of a generous benefactor with no regard to who ends up reaping the benefits of its help. It wants to return to Lebanon on its own terms and at the time of its choosing.
The Russian “Sputnik” agency attributed to a Lebanese official source a statement according to which “the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has decided to appoint Mr. Rajeh Al-Otaibi as new chargé d’affaires in Lebanon", pointing out that the chargé "will arrive in Beirut within a few days.” While no official Saudi statement has come out confirming the appointment of a new chargé d’affaires to replace its ambassador Walid Bukhari, Lebanese news websites close to Hezbollah and the Patriotic Movement sought to deny the report, asserting that Bukhari is still the ambassador. Their denial seemed to reflect a desire to see Saudi Arabia intervene urgently to save Lebanon from its dire financial and economic crisis.
Anti-Riyadh circles in Lebanon had not expected the magnitude of the Saudi response to the statements made by resigned information minister George Kordahi. This would seem to explain why Kordahi ended up stepping down from his position in conjunction with Macron's visit to the Gulf to suggest that his move was in response to a French request and not a concession under pressure. Kordahi said in his press conference last Friday that he resigned in the hope that it would help Macron ease the crisis between Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. Following Kordahi's sharp criticism of the Saudi role in Yemen, the kingdom summoned its Beirut ambassador, asked the Lebanese ambassador to leave Riyadh and decided to stop all Lebanese imports. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stressed at the time that “there is no point” in dealing with Lebanon in light of the continued “dominance of Iran’s proxies.”
“I think we have come to the conclusion that dealing with Lebanon and its current government is not productive and not helpful with Hezbollah’s continuing dominance of the political scene and with what we perceive as a continuing reluctance by this government and Lebanese political leaders in general to enact the necessary reforms, the necessary actions to push Lebanon in the direction of real change,” Prince Faisal said. “We have decided that I think engagement at this point is not productive or useful. And it’s not really in our interest.” He added, "I do not want to reduce the issue to statements made by any one particular person, as the problem is larger than that. The problem in Lebanon is Hezbollah’s continued dominance of the political system.”

Disarray of Lebanon’s public sector breeds further corruption
The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
Most Lebanese now struggle to put food on the table and are seeking to permanently leave the country.
Lebanon’s public sector has long been regarded as bloated, lethargic and rife with corruption. It’s now falling into further disarray due to an economic crisis that has left some eight in 10 people poor, according to UN agencies. Such an environment breeds corruption, said George Attieh, who heads Lebanon’s public sector watchdog. He accuses many government employees of using the growing disarray of the state to ask for bribes in return for issuing citizens’ crucial paperwork. “The situation is incomparable to before the crisis,” Attieh said. “If I look to how it was in 2018 and how it is now you can’t recognise the public sector. There are much more complaints, hundreds of complaints … mostly about bribery and intentional delays by employees in order to impose bribes.”Before the crisis, most civil servants earned salaries worth around $1,000 and up; today, most are earning around a tenth of that after a currency crisis led the Lebanese pound to lose more than 90% of its value. Some public sector workers have since the beginning of November been staging an open-ended strike over better pay and living conditions. Others simply can’t make it into work: A full tank of gas can eat up more than half of their monthly wage and benefits. Attieh said fuel shortages have also made the watchdog’s work more difficult as on-site visits needed to investigate alleged corruption have become impossible.
Patience running thin
After waiting in line for hours to register his car at a vehicle licensing agency in a suburb north of Beirut, Amine Gemayel’s patience is running thin. He has already visited the branch in Dekwaneh several times for what should be a simple procedure, without success. The only way to get his paperwork done any faster would entail breaking the law by paying someone off – a dilemma facing all Lebanese trying to access basic services as their public institutions buckle under a catastrophic financial crisis and perennial political paralysis. “It’s a great burden on citizens,” Gemayel said. “I know that to complete my procedure I need to use a middle-man.” Most Lebanese now struggle to put food on the table and are seeking to permanently leave the country, according to a recent poll by US-based polling company Gallup. To help its employees cope, Lebanon’s government has promised to triple their daily transportation allowance and provide public employees with an extra half salary per month, but has not yet done so. It has also been slow to provide other forms of badly needed social assistance despite funding being available. The cabinet has not met for nearly two months amid a row over the probe into the August 2020 Beirut port blast, leaving it unable to implement measures demanded by the international community to unlock aid.
‘Under the table’
Outside the vehicle registration office in Dekwaneh, Roy Mghames, 20, was also waiting in line. “You either come and wait like other people and they tell you to come back next week, or you get your things done on the quick,” he said. “You have to give it to them under the table.” The director-general of the Traffic and Vehicles Management Authority, Hoda Salloum, was herself charged with corruption, including illicit enrichment and wasting public funds in February 2020, allegation she denies. She was released on bail and remains in her position. Salloum said she had worked to increase transparency at the public institution by digitising procedures, but hours-long state power cuts and a shortage of funds to buy fuel for backup generators meant these systems were often offline. Hers is just one of Lebanon’s public institutions which do not know if they will still be operating in a month’s time. “We can continue our work till the end of the year,” she said. “Then, it’s up to God.”

EU Adopts Equivalence Decision for Lebanon on Digital COVID Certificate
Naharnet/December 10/2021
The European Commission on Friday adopted a new equivalence decision certifying that COVID-19 certificates issued by Lebanon are equivalent to the EU Digital COVID Certificate.
The EU Digital COVID Certificate is a proof that a person has either been vaccinated against COVID-19, received a negative PCR test result or recovered from COVID-19. It was launched by the European Commission on July 1, 2021 in order to facilitate safe free movement across the European Union during the pandemic. Fifty-six countries and territories in five continents have since joined the system, with non-EU countries connecting through an equivalence decision. “By achieving this equivalency to the EU Digital Certificate, Lebanon has joined the EU’s system. This means that individuals who were vaccinated in Lebanon and are traveling to the Schengen area can now use their vaccination certificates to move freely and safely across the continent,” the EU Delegation to Lebanon said in a statement. “Vaccines that are accepted for travel to Europe are those recognized by the European Medicines Agency i.e. Comirnaty (BioNTech and Pfizer), Spikevax (Moderna), Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca) and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen. At the same time, Lebanon agreed to recognize the certificates of people travelling to Lebanon with an EU Digital Certificate or a vaccine certificate from a country, which has also achieved the EU equivalency,” the Delegation added. “Beyond the resumption of safe travel, the equivalence decision is an important step for Lebanon in its response to the evolving pandemic. Over the past few months, the European Union has provided technical support to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health for the development of its own Digital COVID Certificate and mobile application,” it said. The mobile application, which is currently under review, provides the Ministry of Public Health with the needed technology to verify COVID vaccine certificates in a secured manner, for example at the airport or other public establishments. Vaccination certificates eligible in Lebanon are those recognized by local authorities. The Ministry of Public Health is currently exploring the possibility of including negative PCR test results and recovery certificates in the system.
Ralph Tarraf, Ambassador of the European Union to Lebanon, said: “Together with the Ministry of Public Health, we have developed the IT system and technology behind a certified and secure Digital COVID Certificate for Lebanon. It goes beyond facilitating travel from and to Europe. It will help Lebanon manage its response to the virus, particularly during the coming holiday period.” The Commission’s decision will enter into force as of December 10, 2021. “All decisions are available online. More information on the EU Digital COVID Certificate can be found on the dedicated website,” the statement said.

Shea Presents U.S. Anticorruption Award to Riad Kobeissi
Naharnet/December 10/2021
U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea has hosted civil society and international non-governmental representatives engaged in combating corruption, the U.S. embassy said. At the event, Ambassador Shea presented the Department of State’s Anticorruption Champions Award on behalf of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Riad Kobeissi, head of the investigative reporting unit at Al Jadeed TV. "Kobeissi was one of only 12 awardees globally, and the only award recipient in the Middle East, in this second year of this State Department award," the embassy said. “As President Biden has emphasized, ‘We must start with diplomacy rooted in America’s most cherished democratic values: defending freedom, championing opportunity, upholding universal rights, respecting the rule of law, and treating every person with dignity.’ Combating corruption is a key part of this commitment,” Shea stated. On December 6, the White House released the United States Strategy on Countering Corruption. "The Strategy outlines a first-ever whole-of-government approach to elevating the fight against corruption, placing particular emphasis on better understanding and responding to the threat’s transnational dimensions, including by taking additional steps to reduce the ability of corrupt actors to use U.S. and international financial systems to hide assets and launder the proceeds of corrupt acts," the U.S. embassy said. “As a fundamental threat to the rule of law, corruption hollows out institutions, corrodes public trust, and fuels popular cynicism toward effective, accountable governance,” the Strategy states.

Lebanese Join Mideast Migrants to Europe, as Crisis Deepens
Associated Press/December 10/2021
Ziad Hilweh knew his family might die on the way. But the risk was worth it, he said, to reach the shores of Europe for a new start with his wife and three kids, away from the daily humiliation of life in Lebanon. The country's economic meltdown had destroyed him. The currency crash meant that the value of his salary from working at a private security company fell from $650 a month to about $50 after the Lebanese pound lost more than 90% of its value in less than two years. It reached the point the 22-year-old could no longer afford milk and diapers for his children. But the young father's hopes of a better future were shattered last month, when the boat they were on board headed to Italy broke down in the Mediterranean Sea, hours after they set off from the outskirts of Lebanon's port city of Tripoli. Along with dozens of other would-be migrants on the boat, they were towed back to shore by the navy after a terrifying attempt at escaping. For years, Lebanon has been a host for refugees, mainly from Syria, but now it is a departure point. Hundreds of Lebanese have tried to reach Europe this year on boats from their country's shores, spurred by a devastating economic crisis that has thrown two thirds of the population into poverty since October 2019. It is not a route on the scale of the main sea path from Turkey to Greece used by many refugees and migrants. But it is a startling shift as Lebanese join Iraqis, Afghans, Sudanese and other Middle Eastern nationalities in leaving their homelands. Sea departures from Lebanon have increased starting in 2020, compared to previous years, said Lisa Abou Khaled, spokeswoman for the U.N. refugee agency. According to UNHCR figures, more than 1,570 people embarked or attempted to embark from Lebanon between January and November, most heading for Cyprus. The majority have been Syrians, but Abou Khaled said a notable number of Lebanese have joined them. "It is evident that these are desperate journeys undertaken by people who see no way of survival in Lebanon," said Abou Khaled.
The country is witnessing a frightening convergence of multiple crises, including political instability, the coronavirus pandemic and a massive explosion at the capital's main port in August last year that have all added to the financial unravelling of the country.
'I AM DEAD HERE'
Hilweh had been growing more desperate with each day. For months, he asked relatives and friends to help him financially. Chatting with friends one night, he heard that smugglers were taking people to Europe, and that some have already made it there. He and a close friend, Bilal Moussa, decided to give it a try. Hilweh decided to take his wife and children, while Moussa planned to go alone and apply for family reunification once he settles in Europe. They were told it would cost $4,000 for each adult and $2,000 for a child. Hilweh sold his apartment and his car and borrowed some from relatives. He was still short, but the smuggler gave him a discount and took the $10,000 Hilweh had, instead of $14,000. "I am dead here and might die on the way. But if I reach the destination, I can live a decent life," Moussa said.
The smuggler told them to meet at a location near Tripoli's Abu Ali river shortly before midnight on Friday, Nov. 19, and that 70 people would be on the boat. At the location, they were put into a covered produce truck and driven to Qalamoun, just south of Tripoli. There, at an abandoned resort, they boarded the wooden boat with their belongings. Around midnight, as they left shore, the smuggler began reading the names of people on board. There were 92, instead of 70, including about two dozen Syrian and Palestinian refugees.
A TERRIFYING RIDE
They quickly ran into trouble. A Lebanese navy ship approached the boat, ordering them through loudspeakers to turn back. The captain ignored their calls and kept moving west. The navy ship circled them, causing waves that shook the boat and threw water inside. The shaking grew more violent as the ship drew closer, filling it with more water that pushed it down. The screaming passengers spread out around the boat to balance it and threw bags into the sea to keep it afloat. Hilweh's wife and children were sitting near the engine, and when the boat flooded with water, thick smoke poured out. His 3-month-old son Karim stopped breathing and almost suffocated, he said. "He lived and died in front of me," he said, recalling the panic before Karim was breathing again. "I started reciting the shahada," said Hilweh's wife, Alaa Khodor, 22, referring to the profession of faith in Islam that Muslims recite when close to death. Eventually, the boat stabilized, and they kept moving west while the navy chased them. Looking at a screen, the boat's captain shouted that they had left Lebanon's territorial waters. Immediately, the navy ship turned back. "I felt very happy. I am out of Lebanon. I have crossed the line of humiliation," Hilweh recounted. He celebrated by hugging his wife and two daughters, Rana, 3, and Jana, 2.
BACK AND BROKEN
Their relief was short-lived. Shortly before sunrise, the water-logged engine gave out completely. Stalled in the darkness and silence, the frightened passengers frantically called relatives in Lebanon to tell the military they needed help. Hours later, the Lebanese navy finally arrived and towed the boat back. "Once the boat stopped, I felt everything go dark, I felt devastated," Hilweh said. "When we arrived back I had tears in my eyes." Back in Tripoli, the men were separated from the women and children and questioned for hours. The smuggler is still in detention, Hilweh said. Tripoli is Lebanon's most impoverished city. Its mayor, Riad Yamak, said that last year, several people drowned off the coast of Tripoli while trying to reach Europe. Last year, a boat taking migrants to Cyprus ran out of diesel and was stranded for eight days, during which at least six persons died. The U.N. peacekeeping forces in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, rescued the rest and handed them over to Lebanese authorities after giving them first aid. "This is suicide when someone takes his family by sea," Yamak said. Hilweh and his wife disagree. They have already lost their apartment, their car and Hilweh's job. They said they will keep trying until they make it to Europe even if this means putting their lives and those of their kids in danger again. "I will take any danger to get out of here. There is nothing here," Khodor said.

The nitrate government still rules over us
Mariam Kesserwan/Now Lebanon/December 10/2021
Activist Mariam Kesserwan warns against compromising on the fairness of the 2022 elections, as she says there are serious concerns over the Lebanese government’s impartiality and it should be under international scrutiny when organizing the parliamentary poll next year.
Two things are on the minds of the Lebanese, be they living in the country or diaspora. First, it’s the haunting fear of what tomorrow may bring amid a crippling economic crisis that has thrown three-quarters of the country’s population into poverty, and in the face of widespread impunity for murder and theft, as well as endemic corruption we can’t seem to shake despite our efforts, despite October 17. The second concern is elections. Constant political propaganda keeps telling us that change is coming. With a deadline: the 2022 polls. Some serious questions are worth raising as seconds fly towards this deadline: what change is so imminent after the elections if the same old guard that brought us to the streets in October 2019 is in charge of organizing and overseeing the polls, with no real international interference whatsoever?
How can anyone resume trust in those whom they shouted against during the demonstrations of February 11, 2020 when the parliament wanted to give confidence to – then unknown – Hassan Diab’s government? Hundreds of people were wounded back then when we shouted “No confidence” and opposed his cabinet. Mikati’s cabinet is no different. How to believe in effective change that will save the country from its collapse, when this process of change is compromising the very demands of the people who took to the streets two years ago?
The people of Lebanon expressed clearly then what they wanted. We wanted an independent government to organize honest, decent and transparent elections with international observers and an independent judiciary to give people back the money seized by Lebanese banks; we wanted to hold the corrupt accountable.
Those demands we shouted in October 2019 are currently used and abused by all political sides: the authorities, the government, the political parties – including some parties born from the October 17 movement – and the international community. But the real demands of the street have been forgotten. No one is standing up for them anymore. How did that happen?
Some alternative parties and social media pages presented themselves as candidates to take those demands to the Parliament, their right in doing so justified by their participation in the protests, some at a later stage. But we are witnessing a general focus on one single thing: elections.
The original demand was not met. The government is not independent. The prime minister is the same person who headed the government when the ammonium nitrate entered Lebanon and was stored in the port in 2013. The government is preparing for elections, but without international oversight to ensure transparency and fairness in the polls. Not only is it that participating in elections in these conditions contradicts everything people asked for, it is also a dangerous legitimization of a political class that should be held accountable. Yet, some of these new parties and individuals have gravely compromised on the streets’ demands. The original demand was not met. The government is not independent. The prime minister is the same person who headed the government when the ammonium nitrate entered Lebanon and was stored in the port in 2013.
They have accepted this murderous government, although the population is still suffering under the reckless policies implemented by this same cabinet.
They lifted subsidies on fuel, leading to skyrocketing gas prices – from 70,000 LBP to 310,000 LBP – which caused a 50 percent drop in demand. People can no longer afford to buy fuel. They lifted subsidies on medicines without any safety plan in place for patients. Medication that was once priced at 7,000 LBP is sold now for over 100,000 LBP. Subsidies were lifted first on drugs for chronic and incurable diseases. In parallel to this fatal blow, now patients can rarely find their medicines in pharmacies.
Deliberately set fires across Lebanon were never properly investigated, despite Civil Defense pointing out that they may have been caused by arson. No investigations were opened, no one was held accountable. This week, the government had planned to pass through Parliament an unjust, immoral Capital Control law. The bill heartlessly meant to legalize theft committed by banks on Lebanese depositors: the depositors were to receive the money they had deposited in dollars in Lebanese pounds at a rate decided according to a market that is constantly changing, amid skyrocketing inflation. Money they cannot really exchange back into dollars anywhere, money they cannot use abroad. Money they deposited two years ago when the rate was fixed at 1500 LBP per dollar, and money they have had no access to ever since.
Not only would this have legalized the theft, but the bill also meant to clear the banks from any responsibility. It was rejected by the Parliament committees for “incompatibility of the law with IMF standards” and after pressure from depositors’ associations. This should have felt like victory. But the truth is that in these policies, we can see what their intentions are. Are these same people supposed to oversee the organizations of the elections in 2022? Are we meant to trust that they will ensure an independent, transparent electoral process?
This government has done everything to kill the street movement: the fuel crisis suffocated daily life even when the Covid 19 lockdowns were eased; human rights and freedom activists have been harassed and called in for investigations; the Beirut blast investigation has been obstructed; the investigation into the October 14 incidents in Tayounneh was politicized and used as leverage to obstruct the Beirut blast probe.
Political activists, including some that rose during the October 17 uprising have been assassinated without any proper investigation. There was no accountability for those who may have committed the murders. Among the people we lost is Faysal Sfeir.
Another trend we’ve seen since this government was formed in September was a crackdown on the media. Before the diplomatic scandal with the Gulf countries, Minister of Information Georges Kordahi was attempting to pave the way towards more censorship. He warned against “hate speech against politicians”, and issued a circular on banning criticism against politicians, but religious figures and party leaders as well, specifying among them Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
State institutions are not the only ones silencing dissent. There is also a harsh online war on social media working to discredit any voice of dissent. An excessive amount of paid bots attacked opposition accounts on social media through organized false reporting; four Instagram pages were disabled in 1 week : @yalla_3al_tari2, @lebanon_the_dream, @lebpoliticaltalk and @nakedpolitics.lb. The Instagram pages @lebpoliticaltalk and @nakedpolitics.lb are still down at the time of publication.
Meanwhile, the promises made by the government to ease the effects of the crisis on the most affected among the Lebanese remain undelivered. Minister of Education Abbas El Halabi promised $90 for public school teachers, and PM Mikati announced that public workers would receive ” half a salary on November 1, and half a salary before the holidays”. These decisions are of an exceptional nature pending a review of the budget, which will be completed as soon as possible, they said. Not only is it that participating in elections in these conditions contradicts everything people asked for, it is also a dangerous legitimization of a political class that should be held accountable. Yet, some of these new parties and individuals have gravely compromised on the streets’ demands.
Last but not least, the government opened registration for ration cards on December 1. But the source of funding is still unclear, despite the government promising to make it available a year before. The complicated process of filling the form requires both computer literacy and the presentation of many documents that are difficult to obtain. Many people who desperately need that card don’t own a computer. The point here is, on February 11, 2020 we shouted “No confidence” as the Parliament was voting for the Hassan Diab cabinet. We shed blood to say it: 400 protesters were wounded in the demonstration. The politicians drew blood to show that they didn’t care.
Those who demonstrated against the government of Hassan Diab, a figure who was virtually unknown at the time, will also not accept a government led by Najib Mikati. The accusations of corruption against him are widespread enough to have their own section on his Wikipedia page. They were also exposed in the Jordanian parliament a few years back.
It is impossible to accept Mikati’s government, especially after the August 4 blast, and especially after the ammonium nitrate shipment entered the country and was stored in the port during his term in November 2013. Again, how can we trust his government to organize fair, transparent elections?
I am surprised that the same activists who once stood for an independent government are today participating in an election organized by this government without requesting any international interference and oversight. What are their guarantees?
On top of that, it was ridiculous to, or to pretend to, not notice that people’s unwillingness to register to vote is due to the fact that nothing has changed. At the end of the day, the names of the candidates were not even made public.
We’ve already witnessed many examples of what can go wrong in elections held at professional orders or in universities. First of all, there was a lack of transparency about the candidates: their names were announced only three days before election day. In the Lebanese American University the system was down for hours and forms were replaced without any investigations. At the Order of Dentists, Hezbollah and Amal supporters created chaos to destroy the ballot boxes. In many instances politically backed candidates ran as independents – including at the Beirut Bar Association.
Do the 2022 elections really serve the public interest? Or will they lead, as usual, to the return to power of politicians who have been the direct cause of suffering for so many decades?
Would they preserve impunity? Is a government that attempts to legalize its theft, and lifts subsidies without any social safety measures in place worthy to be trusted as the only authority overseeing the 2022 elections?
We should reinforce what we asked in October 2019, and request, at least, a thorough international observation mission that ensures the fairness and transparency of the 2022 elections. Otherwise, it was all in vain, and we are back to square one.
*Mariam Kesserwan is a Lebanese civic activist who was part of the 2015 You Stink movement. During the October 17, 2019 protests she founded the @LebanonUprising page on Instagram, a well-known outlet that exposes corruption and violations.

Will Lebanon extend President Aoun’s term in 2022?
Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/December 10/2021
Given the new situation, the president seems to have decided to shelve Basil’s nomination
It’s an open secret in Beirut that President Michel Aoun has been toying with the idea of extending his presidential term, when it expires in October 2022. By then, he would be 89. Many believed that this was Plan B for the octogenarian president, whose first choice was to bequeath power to his son-in-law and political heir, Gibran Basil, who also doesn’t hide his desire to become president. Basil’s chances have dropped to comically low levels, however, due to US sanctions, diminishing support within the Christian community, and no backing from Hezbollah. In light of that, President Aoun seems to have switched priorities: Plan A is now to extend his own term, and if that fails, Plan B is to make Basil president.
It is not uncommon for Lebanese presidents to seek a second term, starting with the country’s first president Charles Dabbas, who went for a second term as early as 1929. Others tried, with varying degrees of success, like Beshara Al Khoury, who amended the constitution to allow for himself a second term in 1947, triggering a nationwide uprising against his rule that ended with his resignation in 1952. It was repeated again after the civil war, under both presidents Elias Hrawi and Emille Lahhoud, but none of these presidents were as old as Michel Aoun when they went for re-election.
The idea of extending Aoun’s term was first peddled by MP Maron Aoun, a member of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). He said it in January 2021, insisting, however, that this was his own suggestion and was not mandated by the president. Last week, however, Aoun came out and said it openly: “If Parliament decides that I ought to stay at Baabda Palace, then I will stay.”
The parliamentary obstacle
Aoun forgot to mention what parliament he was referring to. That might be do-able if the current chamber remains in power until October 2022, since his party commands the lion’s share of seats (a total of 29). But even then, that’s still not enough to secure a majority vote, which needs 65 out of 128 MPs. He would still need support from Hezbollah (13 MPs), and a variety of smaller blocs to secure that majority. If his followers are still in power by October, and still command a majority, then they would probably vote for extending his term or for making Basil president.
But this parliament won’t be around in October 2022, given that Prime Minister Najib Mikati has called for early parliamentary elections on March 27, 2022. The chance of the Aounists winning a significant number of seats in any fair elections is slim, to say the least. People are furious with his administration, which among other things, is held responsible for the economic collapse, financial meltdown, and the Beirut port explosion of August 2020. On Election Day, they would either vote for civil society activists who triggered the October Revolution of 2019, or for traditional Christian parties like the Lebanese Forces (LF), the Lebanese Phalange, or the Marada Movement.
For that reason, the Aounists were trying to postpone the elections, claiming that due to security breakdown, it would be unsafe to hold a nationwide vote in March. When that failed, they tried to prevent expatriates from voting, since a large number of them had left Lebanon during the Aoun era and were certainly not going to vote for Aoun and/or his son-in-law.
Aoun seems to have now decided to shelve Basil’s nomination for the presidency, in order to protect him from what seems to be certain defeat in October. Instead, he and his advisers are now pushing for extension of the presidential term, citing Article 69 of the Lebanese Constitution as a legal pretext.
Article 69
That article says that a cabinet has to resign if a prime minister dies while in office, or at the start of a new presidential or parliamentary tenure. This means that Najib Mikati needs to step down by April 2022, although when appointed last September, he was brought to believe that he would stay in power throughout both the parliamentary and presidential elections. Unless a new replacement is immediately appointed, and subsequently approved by the Chamber of Deputies, then Mikati would stay in power in caretaker capacity from April to October 2022.
Cabinet formation is never quick in Lebanon and it often takes months, sometimes crossing the one-year benchmark. Former Prime Minister Hassan Diab resigned from office in August 2020 but was only replaced by Najib Mikati in September 2021, acting as caretaker premier for 13-months. And even if a prime minister is appointed swiftly, it might take him months to form a cabinet. That happened to Tammam Salam, who was tasked with the premiership in April 2013 but did not form his government until February 2014, holding the title of Prime Minister-designate for 10-months.
Neither a caretaker prime minister, nor a prime minister-designate can constitutionally approve of a presidential election, and nor can they attend a presidential inauguration. If Lebanese politicians are unable to decide on a replacement to Najib Mikati, which is very likely, then this mean no presidential elections, no new occupant at Baabda Palace, and a forced extension of Michel Aoun’s term.
Basil’s obstruction methods
What makes this scenario all the more horrifying is that Gibran Basis is well-trained when it comes to obstruction of cabinet formation. That is what he did to ex-Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri between November 2020 and July 2021, putting forth a series of impossible conditions that Hariri could not possibly meet. He asked for the lion’s share of cabinet posts, including all sovereignty posts like defence, foreign affairs, and interior (which has historically been in the hands of a Muslim Sunni).
When Hariri tried meeting him at midway, he raised the bar, insisting on the right to name all Christian ministers in the government, in total disregard to other Christian parties. After eight months of endless bickering, Hariri stepped down. Basil can do just that next spring, making sure that no prime minister is around to supervise the next presidential elections, in order to extend his father-in-law’s term.
*Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

Mar Mikhael’s secret garden: Inside Beirut’s last orchard
Mohamad El Chamaa/L'Orient Today/10 December 2021
Sitting under a tilting berry tree, the smell of damp soil, so easily recognizable in the winter, fills the air. The ground is soft underfoot. Ripe fruits are falling to the earth. It is tranquil. We start walking up the hillside. One would hardly think this is still Beirut, but it is.
As we reach the top, the verdant scenery is suddenly interrupted by the sight of Electricite du Liban’s headquarters and J. M. Bonfils’ Tower. You are reminded you are not in the Horsh, or Sanayeh, but in one of the busiest parts of town: Mar Mikhael. This is the Tobagi garden, Beirut’s last functioning orchard. Although older than most of the neighborhood, it is a little-known mass of flora and fauna set amidst a sea of concrete.
“This place has been running for over 100 years,” explained Marie Rose Tobagi, granddaughter of the garden’s founder, who grew up here. She has a lot of memories of “family lunches, picnics, barbecues, dinners and birthdays.”
And, if not for a twist of fate, this urban oasis would not be here today.
The land measures 4,695 meters squared, a size unheard of in Beirut today. It is largely hidden from the public, boxed in on all sides by rows of apartment buildings. An anonymous metal gate seals off its alley entrance from pedestrian view.
The three-level terraced orchard was built by Dr. Habib Tobagi, who bought the land on the hillside and transformed it. Some features were already there, such as the 150-year-old berry tree.
According to his grandson Joseph Tobagi, the elder Tobagi was one of the first people to move to Mar Mikhael in 1889. There he built a row of three houses. “You can tell this area was still a suburb back then because my grandfather did not include storefronts on the first building’s ground floor facing the street,” Joseph Tobagi said.
On the second floor of the building was Habib Tobagi’s private medical practice, and on the first was the family’s home.
Joseph Tobagi added that his grandfather was one of the founders of nearby St. George Hospital; the Greek Orthodox Bishop at the time asked him to establish the facility because he was a reputable doctor.
During the famine of 1917, Habib Tobagi planted wheat in the orchard and distributed it to the surrounding community to stave off hunger. Marie Rose Tobagi says this explains why a small portion of the garden is empty: “That’s where they planted the wheat.”
Her grandfather also built a shelter with a double wall, padded with sand so that it would protect the family from bombs during the First World War. On top of it, a gardener's shed was built. Both survive today.
During the Civil War, muggers would make their escape from Mar Mikhael through the garden, up the hill, to the safety of Achrafieh.
The garden cascades down the Achrafieh hill and covers a triangular footprint. The orchard was built using a technique called terracing, whereby several layers of flat surfaces were carved into the hillside to increase the surface area of arable land on what would otherwise be a sloped surface. They were mounted by a wall of drystone, soil, and grass. This technique allows for more cultivation and higher crop yield, and experts say it also helps conserve water and prevents soil erosion.
Halim Abi Ghanim, the orchard’s 78-year-old gardener, pointed out that more than 12 different types of fruits and vegetables still grow here.
“Over here is an avocado tree. We started planting it 15 years ago,” he said.
The terraces are planted with a mix of fruit trees on every level. The top layer has olive trees, while the second and third layers produce citrus fruits such as lemons, oranges, clementines, and Seville oranges. This is in addition to bananas, papaya, berries and loquat (acadinia). There’s also a small grapevine.
However, the garden hasn’t always had a secure presence; as Beirut became denser and green space became scarce, its survival has not been easy.
In 1964, the municipality of Beirut began planning a series of roads. This was back when roadworks were a cornerstone of government transportation policy. This transformation coincided with the rolling-back of the tramway system and an increase in the number of cars in Lebanon from 76,000 in 1962 to 130,000 in 1967.
The result was a massive change to Beirut’s urban fabric, splitting neighborhoods apart, including Achrafieh. A series of roads were built to form the intersection we know today as Sassine Square. It was cut out one road at a time from 1964 to 1975: First, the preexisting Furn el-Hayek road was widened and crossed with the newly paved Independence Avenue from Basta.
It was then followed by Alfred Naccache Road, which starts at Adlieh and ends at the Mar Mitr cemetery, connecting to a bridge that was never completed.
In 1975, there were plans to continue this bridge into Mar Mikhael and connect it to the Charles Helou highway via a 24-meter-wide road. These plans entailed bulldozing the Tobagis' garden and home, but construction never commenced, owing to the start of the Civil War.
Almost 40 years later, the second Mikati government resurrected the plan and revised it to a 30 meter wide, four-lane highway.
Spanning 1.3 kilometers, the project, named the Fouad Boutros Highway, would have destroyed 10,000 square meters of green space and thirty buildings, including the Tobagis’ home and garden. The Council of Development and Reconstruction and then-Mayor of Beirut Bilal Hamad claimed this would solve traffic congestion in the area.
Aside from being an outdated method for fixing traffic and the pollution it would create, the plan had another purpose: It was a way to claim more land for developers, as Beirut was in the middle of a real estate bubble at the time.
Urban designer and architect Abdul-Halim Jabr explained that the project would have opened up many inaccessible parcels of land that flank the proposed highway.
The improved accessibility and visibility of the parcels would have attracted developers thus increasing the density of the area.
Moreover, with a new highway, developers could use the building code to their advantage: “You can go as high as two and a half times the width of the street… If the highway is 30 meters wide, you can build 75 meters high with a certain angle for the slant,” depending on the size of the plot and the slope, Jabr added.
In response to this, activists such as Raja Noujaim, Antoine Atallah and Habib Debs mobilized. Their campaign utilized the 2006 amendment to Law No. 58 which specifies that projects intended for the public interest can be substituted with counterproposals, so long as they also benefit the public interest.
The result was a green spine, designed by Debs, connecting all the properties along the route where the highway would have gone.
It would start from the bridge and lead to the orchard, which would become the Dr. Habib Tobagi Botanical Garden, transforming it into a public space and allowing the family to continue to live in their home. It was a tradeoff.
This, on top of the environmental impact report that activists pressured the municipality into producing, ensured the demise of the highway project for the time being.
The Social Role of the Garden
Some of the trees were destroyed during the war and had to be replaced. In 2001, Joseph Tobagi's elder sister Doris launched a full restoration of the garden, revealing its former glory.
This revitalization paved the way for the family to host small events for family and friends, as well as community gatherings.
The garden also served as a meeting ground for the many experts and activists opposed to the highway project. Ali Ghaddar was one of a group of urban design and planning students studying the area at the time. He recalls Doris inviting them all in for lunch in the garden, where she told them stories of the old Mar Mikhael before the war and before the bars came.
Ironically, the Aug. 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion, which demolished much of the surrounding area, has breathed new life into the garden.
Because it overlooks many of the neighboring houses which were made inaccessible due to the severity of the damage, rescue workers and volunteers carved out a path through the orchard to access buildings and clear the rubble. It also became a place of rest once more.
Tanious Abou Khalil, who volunteered in the aftermath of the blast, recalled seeing many of the first responders using the garden to cool off during the sweltering Beirut summer.
“The fruit trees were groomed in a way to allow people to sit under their shade,” he said.
Currently, Live Love Lebanon has plans to fix up the building and the garden itself. Eddy Bitar, the group’s co-founder, told L’Orient Today that the garden is part of the Rmeil cluster that they are working on and that the intervention is still in the preparatory phase.
Although small in size and the last of its kind, the orchard is an integral part of the city.
“In an area that needs greenery, it has an impact on the microclimate and ecology, flora and fauna and birds, it needs to be protected,” Jabr emphasized.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 10-11/2021
Papal delegation attends inauguration of Gulf’s largest cathedral in Bahrain
Arab News December 10, 2021
LONDON: Bahrain has opened the largest Catholic cathedral in the Gulf, in a ceremony attended by members of the country’s government, a papal delegation from the Vatican, and Bahraini Christians. Construction of Our Lady Arabia Cathedral began in 2014 with the laying of a foundational stone donated by Pope Francis. Located about 15 miles outside Bahrain’s capital Manama, the cathedral can host 2,300 worshippers. Bahrain prides itself on its religious plurality, and has long provided Christian and non-Christian faiths places of worship and the freedom to practice their religion openly and freely. “We’re very proud to have this place of worship for the Catholic community. There are around 80,000 worshippers that will be using the church,” Dr. Shaikh Khalid bin Khalifa Al-Khalifa, chairman of the board of trustees of the King Hamad Global Centre for Peaceful Coexistence, said at the cathedral’s opening ceremony on Thursday. “Historically speaking, it’s not strange for Bahrain to support non-Muslims or people from other religions to worship here. Bahrain has had the freedom to practice other religions and worship for over 200 years.” He cited the existence of a Hindu temple constructed in 1819. Hala Ramzi Fayez, a Christian and a Shoura Council member in Bahrain’s Parliament, told Arab News: “In our country, people of all religions and beliefs live peacefully, practicing their religious rites freely and safely.” She added: “In the heart of Manama … you find the church and the temple next to the mosque and the ma’atam, in coexistence and harmony, for hundreds of years.” Christians make up around 15 percent of Bahrain’s population. The religion has a long history in the country, with the earliest recorded community dating back to the 12th century. While the majority of Christians now living in Bahrain are foreign expats, there are around 1,000 native Bahraini Christians, many of whom have roots in the country dating back centuries. Rev. Father Xavier D’Souza, a priest in Manama’s Sacred Heart Church, told Arab News that Our Lady Arabia Cathedral “is a symbol and sign of hope in the Middle East, and a testament to the peaceful coexistence in this part of the world.” He added: “On a practical level, it offers another convenient place of worship for those residing in this part of the island and the Catholic community in Saudi Arabia, who can just cross the causeway in the weekends and participate in the services.” D’Souza said the opening of the cathedral represents “a very positive and optimistic vision for the future of Christians in the Gulf.”

Amnesty International launches Persian site amid Iran’s ‘escalating crisis of impunity’
Arab News/December 10, 2021
LONDON: London-based rights group Amnesty International has announced the launch of a Persian-language website in response to “an all-out assault on human rights” in Iran. The new site, launched Friday to coincide with Human Rights Day, features the group’s “research and statements on Iran, particularly over recent years,” according to a press release. It will include legal analysis of reports of “shocking human rights violations” by Tehran, and will “collect, preserve and analyze evidence of the most serious crimes under international law committed in Iran to facilitate future criminal proceedings,” Amnesty said.
Deputy Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa at Amnesty International, Diana Eltahawy, said in the release: “The website arrives as Iran suffers from a deepening human rights crisis, with hundreds of individuals on death row following unfair trials — including those arrested as children — and thousands persecuted or arbitrarily detained for peacefully exercising their human rights. Meanwhile, the families of thousands of people killed or forcibly disappeared by the authorities are left waiting for truth and justice.”
Eltahawy continued: “Human rights defenders and dissidents who do speak out against repression and injustice endure grave human rights violations while the Iranian authorities have rained down bullets on protesters who take to the streets, inflicting deaths and serious injuries. Our new Persian-language website will serve as a torchlight that illuminates and exposes these crimes.”In Friday’s announcement, Amnesty also said it would continue to report on human rights violations and discrimination suffered by Persian-majority Iran’s ethnic minorities. “Reports on human rights violations and entrenched discrimination suffered by Iran’s ethnic minorities, including Ahwazi Arabs, Azerbaijani Turks and Kurds” will continue to be translated into Arabic, Turkish or Kurdish, the group said. Eltahaway said the launch of a Persian language website “signifies Amnesty International’s ongoing commitment to support the people of Iran in their courageous struggle against repression and discrimination, while bolstering calls for truth, justice and reparations for the countless victims of arbitrary detention, discrimination, enforced disappearance, torture and other ill-treatment, extrajudicial executions or other unlawful killings.”
Founded in 1961, Amnesty International has become one of the world’s most prominent human rights advocacy organizations. A statement by the group said: “Only when the last unjustly detained man, woman or child has been freed, when the last torture chamber has been closed, when the death penalty has been abolished everywhere and the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights is a reality for the world’s people, will our work be done.”

One Year On, Iranian Dissident’s Execution Rattles Exiles
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
One year after dissident Ruhollah Zam was executed in Iran after apparently being lured from France, his hanging strikes fear into Iranian opposition exiles over the reach of the Islamic Republic. Zam, the founder of a popular Telegram channel despised by the Iranian authorities for its use in November 2019 protests, was executed on December 12 last year just weeks after leaving France, where he had refugee status, on a mysterious trip to Iraq. Colleagues say he was abducted in Iraq by Iranian forces, taken over the border, paraded on TV, forced to take part in a televised "confession", convicted and then hanged with astonishing speed, AFP reported. Activists argue that his abduction and killing is part of a long history of reprisals carried out by Iran against opponents living outside its borders, dating back to the first months after the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Friends of Zam remain baffled how a man described as passionate in his work and devoted to his daughter chose to make the risky journey to Iraq, a country with a major Iranian presence, and want answers from France over what happened. Sepideh Pooraghaiee, an Iranian journalist living in exile in France who was a friend of Zam, told AFP that "many things are not clear. We do not know anything." "We demand justice for a journalist who was assassinated and work to keep his memory intact." The United For Zam association of friends and activists set up to keep his memory alive said that the French government "needed to clear up any ambiguities" about how Zam was abducted in Iraq. Echoing frustration from activists that human rights are not part of the talks over the Iranian nuclear crisis, they called on France "to make negotiations with the Islamic Republic conditional on the cessation of killings and brutal repression of political dissidents".
- 'Seriously increasing risk' -
Campaigners accuse Iran of killing and abducting hundreds of opponents during the four decade since the royalist government of the shah was overthrown. Among the most notorious was the knifing to death of the shah's last prime minister Shahpour Bakhtiar and his secretary outside Paris in August 1991. An Iranian man, Ali Vakili Rad, was convicted of the killing but in 2010 was paroled by France and returned to Iran where he was given a hero's welcome. The September 1992 killing of four Iranian Kurdish activists at the Mykonos restaurant in Berlin resulted in a German arrest warrant for the Iranian intelligence minister and a crisis in relations between Iran and the West. "The kidnapping and subsequent killing of Ruhollah Zam fits a decades-long pattern of intimidation, extrajudicial killings and abductions of dissidents by the Islamic Republic of Iran´s agents," said Roya Boroumand, executive director of the US-based Abdorrahman Boroumand Center. The Center has counted more than 540 Iranians whose successful assassination or kidnapping have been attributed to Iran, with a peak reached in the 1990s with more than 397 killed including 329 in Iraqi Kurdistan. Boroumand said that there had been a "slackening" of such activities after the international backlash that followed the Mykonos case. But a growing number of cases "indicate a seriously increasing risk" for Iranian dissidents abroad. She linked this to the growing number of web-based channels based abroad that have had an impact inside Iran -- like Zam's Amadnews -- especially during events such as the 2019 protests. In July this year, US prosecutors charged four Iranians in absentia over a plot to kidnap the dissident Masih Alinejad from New York in a speedboat and take her to Tehran's ally Venezuela. Alinejad, who has strongly campaigned against the obligatory hijab in Iran, is now part of a bipartisan US Senate effort to introduce legislation that would sanction those behind such attempts. Now living in a safe house after the plot was foiled, Alinejad said: "Even here in America I do not have a normal life. I am not a criminal. My crime is just to give a voice to the voiceless protesters of Iran."

BBC Calls on Iran to End Campaign against Its Staff
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
The BBC on Friday urged Iran to end what it said was a mounting campaign of threats and intimidation against its journalists and their families at home and abroad. The corporation said staff from its Persian-language service have endured a decade of harassment and attacks, including asset freezes and arbitrary arrest of relatives, reported AFP. "In the past year, threats against BBC News Persian staff and Persian-speaking journalists outside Iran have escalated," the broadcaster said in a statement. "Death threats and threats of extra-territorial harm have been made towards BBC News Persian staff in London, leading to police involvement and protection." The campaign has extended to journalists from other organizations perceived to be critical of the regime, forced returns from overseas and imprisonment, it added. The UN has voiced concern about treatment of BBC Persian staff, saying the authorities in Tehran were prepared to go to illegal lengths to silence reporters. The broadcaster's World Service operation is part-funded by Britain's Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office but is editorially independent of government. Diplomatic relations between the two countries are strained over Tehran's nuclear ambitions and its detention of dual nationals, said to be linked to a historic unpaid debt from a military deal before the shah was deposed in 1979. BBC World Service's lawyers Caoilfhionn Gallagher and Jennifer Robinson said Persian service staff "receive threats of death and violence simply for doing their jobs". "We call on the international community to take immediate, robust action to ensure Iran is held accountable, and BBC News Persian journalists can report without fear," they added. The general secretary of Britain's biggest journalists' union the NUJ, Michelle Stanistreet, also backed the call, saying Iran's actions were "despicable and must stop". "It is not only completely unacceptable for them to face such vicious personal intimidation, it is also a direct attack on press freedom," she said. "Journalism is not a crime, and journalists must be free to do their jobs." The appeal comes on International Human Rights Day, and after two journalists, Maria Ressa of the Philippines and Dmitry Muratov of Russia, received the Nobel Peace Prize. BBC News Persian has a weekly global audience of nearly 22 million people, including some 13 million in Iran itself, the corporation said.

Saudi Crown Prince, Bahrain’s King Review Historic Ties Between the Two Countries
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 December, 2021
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, arrived in the Kingdom of Bahrain on Friday on an official visit. Upon his arrival at Sakhir Air Base Airport, the Crown Prince was received by Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa. The Crown Prince was also received by Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, Bahrain’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister; and princes and ministers of the Bahraini government.
An official reception ceremony was held for the Crown Prince at Sakhir Palace, where the Saudi and Bahraini Royal anthems were played, and then reviewed the guard of honor. At the main hall at Sakhir Palace, the King of Bahrain welcomed the Crown Prince on his current visit to the Kingdom, while the Crown Prince expressed his appreciation to the King for the warm reception and generous hospitality. During the meeting, they reviewed fraternal and historic relations between the two countries, and ways to enhance cooperation in various fields. They also reviewed the latest developments in the region and the world.

US Congress Supports Arms Sales to Saudi Arabia
Washington - Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 9 December, 2021
The US Congress thwarted efforts to block the selling of arms to Saudi Arabia, and overwhelmingly approved the $650 million deal. A procedural motion by Rep. Sen. Rand Paul was rejected on a 30-67 vote. Senate members sharply criticized their colleagues who sought to obstruct the deal, pointing to the attacks launched by the “Iranian-backed” Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who supports the arms sale, said: “Saudi Arabia is literally surrounded by violent threats conceived, funded and orchestrated by Iran. A vote to block the sale of defensive military systems to Saudi Arabia would undermine one of our most important regional partners.”In a rare bipartisan consensus, Dem. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez backed McConnell’s comments, lashing out at members of the Senate who sought to block the arms sales and recalling the increasing Houthi attacks. “There is no doubt that the Houthis have deployed more advanced weapons, especially armed drones, to target civilians in Saudi Arabia. We also do not forget that there are 70,000 Americans in Saudi Arabia,” he stated. Menendez continued that the weapons would help Saudi Arabia defend itself against the Houthis’ attacks. “It is important that our partners know that we will honor our commitments and provide the necessary security measures to protect civilians. That is why I oppose efforts to block these sales,” he emphasized.
For his part, senior Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Jim Risch, accused Iran of destabilizing and threatening security in the region, stressing the importance of supporting Saudi Arabia to confront the threats facing it. But the most surprising vote was that of Dem. Senator Chris Murphy, who is known for his opposition to arms deals of this kind.“These are defensive arms sales, and with the increase in Houthi drone attacks on Saudi territory. It is very important that they have the ability to shoot down these planes,” he said.

Sisi Receives Israel’s FM, Underscores Commitment to ‘Two-State Solution’
Cairo: Mohammed Abdo Hsanein - Tel Aviv: Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
Israel’s Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, on his first diplomatic trip to Cairo, met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on Thursday who stressed Egypt's ongoing efforts to achieve a comprehensive and just peace based on the "two-state solution.”Lapid also met his Egyptian counterpart Sameh Shoukry.
Sisi stressed his country’s continued efforts to achieve comprehensive and just peace in the Middle East region based on the “two-state solution and the UN resolutions and international legitimacy.”He pointed to Cairo’s efforts to reconstruct the Gaza Strip and prevent the outbreak of tension between the Palestinians and Israeli sides. Shoukry, for his part, underlined Egypt’s firm stance to support peace and stability efforts in the region and revive negotiations between the Israeli and Palestinian sides as soon as possible.
These efforts are aimed at attaining a comprehensive and just settlement of the Palestinian cause based on the two-state solution and relevant international resolutions to achieve the aspirations of the peoples of the region for peace, security and prosperity, a foreign ministry statement read.
Both officials discussed various bilateral issues and means of strengthening cooperation in various fields. They further tackled the most prominent issues of common concern at the regional and international levels, the statement noted. Cairo will continue its efforts and contacts with all relevant parties to revive the aspired political path, Shoukry stressed. He urged Israel to refrain from carrying out unilateral measures, including those related to settlement in the Palestinian territories since they “represent an obstacle to peace efforts and the ability to achieve a two-state solution.”Lapid handed over to Shoukry 95 relics that had been smuggled into the country or found for sale in Jerusalem. He said Israel returned the items “at the request of Egyptian authorities and as a gesture of goodwill.”The Israeli delegation included director of the Israeli Foreign Ministry Alon Ushpiz and Israeli Ambassador to Cairo Amira Oron and Ministry Foreign Affairs Advisor and International Media Spokesperson Yair Zivan.

Arab Coalition Strikes Kill 145 Houthi Militants, One 'Hezbollah' Military Expert in Yemen's Marib
Aden - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
The Saudi-led Arab coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen continues to support the Yemeni national army and popular resistance with airstrikes targeting the Iran-backed Houthi militias in the oil-rich Marib province. More than 145 Houthi militants were killed and 16 military vehicles got destroyed in 29 operations in Marib during the past 24 hours, the coalition announced, SPA reported. Also, Yemen’s Information Minister Moammar Al-Eryani said that a Hezbollah military expert Akram Al-Sayed died when Yemeni army troops shelled Houthi positions south of Marib, inflicting a blow to a Houthi militia push to seize control of Marib city. “Sayed, 35, entered Yemen in August 2017 as part of a group of terrorists affiliated with Hezbollah. On December 3, he was sent with several Hezbollah experts to Marib’s southern fronts to lead operations and implement an Iranian scheme to escalate the pace of confrontations in the province,” the minister explained. The Hezbollah expert was killed alongside Houthi militia commander Abu Ashraf al-Asadi and eight other Houthi members, he noted. “His corps was evacuated in an ambulance to the al-Jouba area before being transferred to the Saada governorate, where the bodies of dozens of Iranian and Hezbollah experts and fighters are buried in full secrecy.”Al-Eryani called on the international community and UN Security Council permanent members, “to condemn this blatant interference, which undermines de-escalation efforts in Yemen, continues bloodshed, and exacerbates humanitarian suffering of Yemenis.” The minister urged an intensification of sanctions against Lebanese Hezbollah and demanded that the government in Lebanon curbs the influx of Hezbollah fighters to Yemen.

Aid Groups Warn of Rise in Darfur Violence, Dozens Killed
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
Dozens of people have been killed in violence this week in three separate areas of Sudan's West Darfur region and thousands of people have fled the violence, local medics said. The West Darfur Doctors Committee said in statements on Wednesday and Thursday that attacks in the Kreinik area killed 88 and wounded 84, while renewed violence in the Jebel Moon area killed 25 and wounded four. Meanwhile, violence in the Sarba locality killed eight and wounded six. "They have created a wave of displacement from the outskirts into the town, with a humanitarian situation that can be described at the very least as catastrophic," the committee said in a statement late on Wednesday, referring to Kreinik. One resident said a camp of displaced people had been flattened and thousands of people had sought refuge in government buildings. "The area is completely destroyed," the resident said, Reuters reported. Analysts say a peace deal signed by some rebel groups in October 2020 was one cause of unrest as local groups jostled for power. A joint United Nations-African Union peacekeeping mission stopped patrolling in January. Humanitarian groups said there had been a rise in conflict across the wider Darfur region recently. The Coordinating Committee for Refugee and Displacement Camps, a local NGO, said on Wednesday there was renewed violence in the Jebel Moon area, where aid workers reported 43 people killed and 10,000 displaced in violence last month. The Zamzam refugee camp was being encircled by militias on Wednesday and the Donki Shata area of North Darfur was also attacked, the committee said on Wednesday. The early-2000s conflict in Darfur between rebel groups on one side and government forces and allied militias on the other has caused an estimated 300,000 deaths. About 2.5 million people live in displacement camps across Darfur, according to UN refugee agency UNHCR. The Coordinating Committee and Darfur residents complain that the militias continue to carry out attacks on villages and camps. Some 430,000 people have been displaced over the past year, a four-fold increase over 2020, aid groups say. "National authorities and the international community must urgently deal with the bloody reality of this spiralling violence," Will Carter of the Norwegian Refugee Council said in a statement on Wednesday.

Biden's Summit for Democracy sparks questions in Middle East
The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
Elie Abouaoun told The Arab Weekly: "When elections are rushed in a sharply divided society going through a conflict, the outcome is usually further deterioration and civil wars".
President Joe Biden on Thursday opened the first White House Summit for Democracy by sounding an alarm about what he sees as a global slide for democratic institutions and called for world leaders to “lock arms” and demonstrate democracies can deliver.
In the Middle East, the summit sparked questions about whether it matters for a region that has not managed to embark on successful democratic transitions and just how the US intends to adjust its democracy promotion to MENA's realities.
Biden called the virtual meeting a critical moment for fellow leaders to redouble efforts on bolstering democracies. In making the case for action, he noted his own battle to win the passage of voting rights legislation at home and alluded to the United States’ own challenges to its democratic institutions and traditions.
“This is an urgent matter,” Biden said in remarks to open the two-day virtual summit. “The data we’re seeing is largely pointing in the wrong direction.”
“Make no mistake, we’re at a moment of democratic reckoning,” said Uzra Zeya, the Under Secretary of State for Civilian Security, Democracy, and Human Rights. “Countries in virtually every region of the world have experienced degrees of democratic backsliding.”The summit featured opening remarks from Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, with representatives from some 100 governments, as well as NGOs, private businesses, philanthropical organisations and legislatures attending. The gathering already has drawn a backlash from the United States' chief adversaries and other nations that were not invited to participate. There are concerns in Washington that democratic practices are fraying while the tide of authoritarianism is rising.
A Pew Research Centre report released this week said that while “people like democracy, their commitment to it is often not very strong.” Even wealthy countries, including the US, have some people who favour military rule, the report said. Another group, the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, said in its annual report that the number of countries experiencing democratic backsliding “has never been as high” as the past decade, with the US added to the list alongside India and Brazil.
US officials promise a year of action will follow the two-day conference but preparations have been overshadowed by questions over some invitees' democratic credentials and complaints from uninvited countries. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said Biden will call on participants to dedicate themselves to “reversing the democratic recession and ensuring that democracies deliver for their people." Biden has made promoting democratic values a focal point of his foreign policy and has repeatedly stressed the need for the US and other like-minded allies to demonstrate that democracies are a better vehicle for societies than autocracies. The White House declined to say how it went about deciding who was invited and who was left off the list. White House press secretary Jen Psaki said the invitation list was not meant to be a “stamp of approval or disapproval.”
“It’s just meant to have a diverse range of voices and faces and representatives at the discussion,” she said. In the Middle East, Turkey, a fellow NATO member and Egypt and Jordan, key US allies in the region, were left out. Israel and Iraq were the only MENA countries to be invited.
Tunisia, long perceived by the US and other Western nations as embodying hopes for successful democratic transitions in the Arab world, has not been invited either, with no explanations offered by Washington or Tunis. US concerns about the future of the Tunisian transition were reflected by a US House of representatives hearing held last October.
President Kais Saied has said, however, that the "state of exception" he installed in Tunisia since July 25 aims to save the Tunisian political system from corrupt practices. An invitation list published last month included countries whose leaders are accused by human rights groups of harbouring authoritarian tendencies, such as the Philippines, Poland and Brazil. It also included Taiwan, stoking anger from China, which considers the democratically-governed island part of its territory.
The guest list raises the question of the often unconvincing categorisation of countries of the world as democratic or not. There have been questions about governments and non-government organisations making that determination.
"There are multiple frameworks, indicators and attributes used to assess the extent to which a government is democratic or not. There are also multiple institutions doing these classifications. Some of these institutions are less independent than others, in some cases pushing for a partisan or partial political agenda. Therefore, the real value of these classifications lies more in what kind of patterns they reveal rather than taking them to the word, " Elie Abouaoun, director of the MENA programme at the US Institute Peace, told The Arab Weekly. Some in the Arab world reject Western categorisations as artificial or trying to impose democracy models with no connection to the region. "I would not put all the West in one basket. In my work, I have seen very rigid conceptual frameworks adopted by some Western organisations and pushed into some countries. But I have also seen several organisations and initiatives showing a great deal of understanding of the local dynamics, contexts, and nuances," says Abouaoun.
With the examples of Libya and Iraq in mind, regional analysts caution against the exclusive focus on electoral norms in MENA countries plagued by serious crises or internal divisions, as a yardstick to measure the success of democratic transitions. "Taking several examples from the region, I see a clear tendency by the international community (or most of its members) to focus on the technical aspects of democratic transition such as holding elections and expediting the process of adopting a constitution, " admits Abou Aoun. "When elections are rushed in a sharply divided society going through a conflict, the outcome is usually further deterioration and civil wars," he adds. Former Tunisian minister of foreign affairs Khemaies Jhinaoui believes "local populations should take ownership of the democratic process" and not see it as influenced by the outside.
Western democratic advocacy faces the additional challenge of being perceived by the Arab public as a form of foreign interference. "It is clear by now that mainstreaming democratic practices in any given country must start with local buy-in. Short of this, the whole endeavour becomes an imposed agenda by foreign powers, " noted Abouaoun. Despite US professions of faith in the democratic ideal, experts say. Washington's ambitions in the region seem to have taken a back seat in view of more urgent tasks, such as thwarting Iran's nuclear threat and worrying about the resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS).
White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, Brett McGurk, bemoaned “hard lessons learnt” from previous policies including pursuits of democracy in the region. He pointed out that the current administration is now focused on “the basics of building, maintaining and strengthening our partnerships and alliances here."
US credibility--
The US also faces the challenge of enhancing its own credibility as a democratic leader. The nation, which has long postured as a shining example of democratic rule, is itself seen as a backslider. Local elected officials in America are resigning at an alarming rate amid confrontations with angry voices at school board meetings, elections offices and town halls. States are passing laws to limit access to the ballot, making it more difficult for Americans to vote. And the January 6 attack at the Capitol has left many in one US political party clinging to Donald Trump’s false claims of a stolen election, eroding trust in the accuracy of the vote. “The United States has a thriving democracy, but it’s been hurting in recent years,” said Michael Abramowitz, the president of Freedom House, whose annual report marked a 15th consecutive year of a global democratic slide. “Right now, we’re going through a phase in America where it’s very difficult to get things done and to really prove that democracy can deliver."

Sudan Youth Radio Muzzled for 6 Weeks After Coup
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
A lively youth-run radio station, Sudan's 96.0 FM was muzzled for 46 days after authorities banished the channel from the airwaves following an October 25 military coup. "I felt like a person who had the ability to speak and suddenly stopped.. It's a painful feeling," Khaled Yehia, production manager of "Hala 96", told AFP from the station's headquarters overlooking the Nile in Khartoum. Sudan, with a long history of military coups, has undergone a fragile journey toward civilian rule since the 2019 ousting of veteran autocrat Omar al-Bashir following mass street protests. A joint military-civilian transitional government took over, but the troubled alliance was shattered on October 25 when General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan launched a military coup that sparked international condemnation, mass protests and deadly crackdowns. Despite the release of Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok from effective house arrest, several radio broadcasts were silenced. The information ministry refused to renew the license of Monte Carlo radio's Arabic service, which broadcasts from Paris, while the BBC's Arabic service was banned. "All of the other radio channels were back on air two weeks after the coup except for Hala 96, BBC and Monte Carlo (RMC)," said Abiy Abdel Halim, Hala's programming manager. "When we asked the authorities for the reason, we were referred to a military official who said there were orders from above regarding the editorial line of the station," he added. Hala 96 was finally allowed to go back on the air on Thursday. Founded in 2014 under the heavy-handed rule of Bashir, Hala Radio hit the airwaves with daily programs alternating between politics, culture and sports. "We started playing patriotic songs that would mobilize crowds," when the demonstrations against Bashir in December 2018 began, Abdel Halim said. "And we weren't even stopped back then save for one time and only for 24 hours". Boasting a staff of 35 on-air presenters, journalists, technicians and administrators all under 40, they mirror the demographics of Sudan.
Youth represent about 68 percent of the country's 48 million-strong population. On Wednesday, dozens of journalists protested in front of the radio channel's headquarters carrying banners with the words "Free Hala 96". Throughout Bashir's dictatorial reign, Sudan ranked 174 out of 180 countries on Reporters Without Borders' Press Freedom Index. Following his ousting, it marginally improved to 159. "What with propaganda, the Internet being disconnected and the crackdown on journalists, this military coup has jeopardized the fragile gains from the revolution," the Paris-based press freedom group said last month. It described Sudan as a "very hostile environment" for media to operate. Last week in a report submitted to the Security Council, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged Sudanese authorities to "respect freedom of speech and of the press".

France, NATO Urge Russia to Turn Back to Diplomacy
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
The crisis in Ukraine can only be solved through diplomacy and Russia must do its utmost to reduce tensions, NATO and French officials said on Friday, warning of serious consequences if Moscow were to launch a military intervention in Ukraine. Russia has amassed troops on its border with Ukraine, where Kremlin-backed rebels have been fighting the Kyiv government, raising fears that it might be preparing to invade. Russian President Vladimir Putin has denied he intends to attack Ukraine, but he has bridled against what he sees as NATO's eastward expansion and the deployment of military hardware close to its border, Reuters reported. "Russia must de-escalate, respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity (and) return to diplomacy. The crisis requires a political and diplomatic solution," NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference in Paris. Speaking alongside French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Defense Minister Florence Parly, he said the alliance stood by its position supporting Ukraine's bid to join NATO.
US President Joe Biden on Thursday promised Central European NATO members more military support as concern grows over a Russian troop build-up on the border with Ukraine, Lithuania's presidential advisor Asta Skaisgiryte said.
Biden also reassured the allies that Washington would not reach any agreement with Russia about the region behind their backs, Skaisgiryte told reporters.
"Any attack on the integrity of Ukraine would have massive strategic consequences," Le Drian told the news conference.

US Commander: Al-Qaeda Numbers in Afghanistan Up 'Slightly'
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 10 December, 2021
The al-Qaeda extremist group has grown slightly inside Afghanistan since US forces left in late August, and the country's new Taliban leaders are divided over whether to fulfill their 2020 pledge to break ties with the group, the top US commander in the region said Thursday.
Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of US Central Command, said in an interview with The Associated Press that the departure of US military and intelligence assets from Afghanistan has made it much harder to track al-Qaeda and other extremist groups inside Afghanistan.
We’re probably at about 1 or 2% of the capabilities we once had to look into Afghanistan,” he said, adding that this makes it “very hard, not impossible” to ensure that neither al-Qaeda nor the ISIS group's Afghanistan affiliate can pose a threat to the United States. Speaking at the Pentagon, McKenzie said it's clear that al-Qaeda is attempting to rebuild its presence inside Afghanistan, which was the base from which it planned the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks against the United States. He said some militants are coming into the country through its porous borders, but it is hard for the US to track numbers.
The US invasion that followed the Sept. 11 attacks led to a 20-year war that succeeded initially by removing the Taliban from power but ultimately failed. After President Joe Biden announced in April that he was withdrawing completely from Afghanistan, the Taliban systematically overpowered Afghan government defenses and seized Kabul, the capital, in August.
McKenzie and other senior US military and national security officials had said before the US withdrawal that it would complicate efforts to keep a lid on the al-Qaeda threat, in part because of the loss of on-the-ground intelligence information and the absence of a US-friendly government in Kabul. The US says it will rely on airstrikes from drones and other aircraft based beyond Afghanistan's borders to respond to any extremist threats against the US homeland. McKenzie said no such strikes have been conducted since the US completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan on Aug. 30. He added that America's ability to conduct such strikes is based on the availability of intelligence, overhead imagery and other information and communications, “and that architecture is still being developed right now.”
Al-Qaeda is among numerous extremist groups inside Afghanistan. After 2001, it lost most of its numbers and its ability to directly threaten US territory, but McKenzie said it retains “an aspirational desire” to attack the United States. During their first period of rule in Kabul, from 1996 to 2001, the Taliban gave haven to al-Qaeda and refused Washington's demand after 9/11 to expel the group and turn over its leader, Osama bin Laden. The Taliban and al-Qaeda have maintained ties ever since. “So we're still trying to sort out exactly how the Taliban is going to proceed against them, and I think over the month or two it'll become a little more apparent to us,” he said. Similarly, McKenzie said it's not yet clear how strongly Taliban will go after the ISIS group, also known as ISIS, which has violently attacked the Taliban across the country. The United States blamed ISIS for an Aug. 26 suicide bombing at Kabul airport that killed 13 American service members in the final days of the US evacuation.
ISIS was “reinvigorated," McKenzie said, by the release of numerous ISIS fighters from Afghan prisons in mid-August. He said both ISIS and al-Qaeda are recruiting from inside and outside Afghanistan. “So certainly we should expect a resurgent ISIS. It would be very surprising if that weren't the case,” he said, adding, “It remains to be seen that the Taliban are going to be able to take effective action against them.” He called al-Qaeda a more difficult problem for the Taliban because of their longstanding ties. “So I think there are internal arguments inside the Taliban about the way forward,” he said. “What we would like to see from the Taliban would be a strong position against al-Qaeda,” which they promised as part of the February 2020 Doha agreement that committed the United States to fully withdrawing from Afghanistan. “But I don’t believe that’s yet been fully realized.”
McKenzie declined to provide an estimate of the number of al-Qaeda operatives inside Afghanistan. “I think it's probably slightly increased,” he said. “There’s a presence. We thought it was down pretty small, you know, toward the end of the conflict. I think some people have probably come back in. But it’s one of the things we look at, but I wouldn’t be confident giving you a number right now.”

Canada imposes additional sanctions on entities affiliated with Myanmar military regime
December 10, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, today announced additional sanctions against 4 entities under the Special Economic Measures (Burma) Regulations in response to the Myanmar military’s ongoing repression of the people of Myanmar and the escalating violence, eroding human-rights situation and worsening humanitarian crisis in the country, as well as the regime’s refusal to take concrete action to restore democracy.
Taken in coordination with the United Kingdom and the United States, the additional measures target military entities responsible for supporting Myanmar’s armed forces, including by securing arms and military equipment and providing technical assistance. These sanctions also reinforce the international community’s call to suspend all operational support for Myanmar’s military and to cease the transfer of arms, materiel, dual-use equipment and technical assistance to Myanmar’s military and its representatives.
This announcement comes on a symbolic day, International Human Rights Day, which recognizes worldwide the principle of the inalienable rights to equality, justice and freedom for all. International Human Rights Day also shines a light on the continued oppression of the people of Myanmar and the denial of their civil liberties and democratic and human rights and freedoms.
The imposition of additional sanctions is consistent with Canada’s commitment to increase pressure on the military regime to initiate an inclusive political dialogue, end the crisis and restore democratic and civilian governance. The sanctions also highlight the urgent need for the military to implement the Five‑Point Consensus established by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
On this important day, Canada welcomes the coordinated actions of its like-minded partners, the United Kingdom and the United States, in expressing shared concerns, advancing shared values and taking concerted steps to address the situation in Myanmar.
Quotes
“Today’s announcement sends a clear message to the people of Myanmar that their resilience and quest for democracy and civil rights will not be diminished. Canada will not hesitate to take additional measures should Myanmar’s military continue to flout its international obligations.”
- Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs

Canada/Statement on Human Rights Day
December 10, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and the Honourable Harjit S. Sajjan, Minister of International Development and Minister responsible for the Pacific Economic Development Agency of Canada, today issued the following statement:
“All people deserve to have their fundamental human rights and freedoms respected. Today, we celebrate these basic principles on the day we enshrined this in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in 1948. Over the past 73 years, human rights have been the solid foundation upon which we have built a more equitable world. As the world recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada will continue to put human rights at the forefront of its efforts.
“COVID-19 has increased existing inequalities, and has had a particularly heavy impact on individuals and groups whose rights were already threatened. Because of this, Canada’s response to the pandemic and our international engagement will continue to address the rights of marginalized people and those in vulnerable situations.
“And our work has continued to advance human rights worldwide. Consistent with our feminist foreign policy and the Feminist International Assistance Policy, Canada will continue to fight for gender equality and human rights through trade, security, diplomacy and international development assistance.
“Human rights belong to everyone, regardless of race, colour, religion, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, language, ability, opinion, origin, property, birth or other status. Canada is committed to this principle and will continue to strive for a more equal world.”

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 10-11/2021
د.مردخاي نيسان: فهم استراتجية العرب بما يتعلق بدولة إسرائيل
Understanding the Arab Strategy Towards Israel
Mordechai Nisan/New Englishg Review/December 2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104677/mordechai-nisan-new-englishg-review-understanding-the-arab-strategy-towards-israel%d8%af-%d9%85%d8%b1%d8%af%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%8a-%d9%86%d9%8a%d8%b3%d8%a7%d9%86-%d9%81%d9%87%d9%85-%d8%a7%d8%b3%d8%aa/
Clausewitz wrote in On War, that “war is a mere continuation of policy by other means,” a virtual political instrument. In the same way is politics itself a method of warfare. Not war as an isolated event, rather war as a long strategic vector for victory. Even then, the strategy adopted does not necessarily entail violent warfare because the instrumentalities of politics can be sufficient to overwhelm the enemy.
Habib Bourguiba
Habib Bourguiba, president of Tunisia from 1957-87, fired the first political shot for a staged approach to vanquish the Jewish state of Israel. Here was an Arab personality proposing, in 1965, a peace plan based initially on the United Nations and international legitimacy. Resolution 181 from 1947 would leave Israel with less territory than her post-’48 borders; and Resolution 194 from 1948 would inundate Israel with hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. If Israel would reject these steps for conflict-resolution, then the Arab stance would earn global vindication. Israel’s political and legal legitimacy would erode.
While the inception of the PLO in 1964 awakened a call for revolutionary guerrilla warfare, Bourguiba offered a pacific solution with a vision of Arabs and Israelis living in harmony. His was a reasonable plan, eschewing demagoguery, and abandoning war. The Arab world, led by President Nasser of Egypt, resounded with horror at the mention of peace with Israel, denouncing Bourguiba for recommending that “we [Arabs] should respect stages.” Drawing upon his own personal and national experience in the long and successful Tunisian struggle for independence, and the expulsion of French colonialism, Bourguiba concluded that the dissolution of Israel required time and patience.
After the Six Day War in June 1967 with the Arab loss, Cecil Hourani, a former adviser to President Bourguiba, developed the theme of containing, Arabizing, and Orientalizing Israel as the optimal strategy. A combination of foreign and domestic pressures would convince the Jews to prefer a return to their status under Arab rule rather than pursue the impossible dream of a secure and recognized Jewish state in Palestine. In 1974, Boutros Ghali, Egyptian academic who was subsequently appointed Minister of State for Foreign Affairs under Sadat, considered Israel’s defense of its sovereignty to be “a very stiff attitude.”
We shall examine three cases of the strategy of stages in the context of the prolonged Arab-Israeli conflict, highlighting the primary Arab personalities who exhibited sophistication and creativity, with no small dose of duplicity. The common thread is the realization that rational analysis must replace emotional exhilaration, or deep despair, in choosing politics over war at least in the initial stage of the undertaking.
Anwar Sadat
Anwar Sadat, president of Egypt from 1970-81, chose diplomacy in 1977 after attacking Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
In the 1970s, various intellectual, cultural, and political figures in Egypt introduced the new thinking into the Israeli-Arab issue. Mohammad Sa’id Ahmed began his book When the Guns Fall Silent with a challenging statement: “The time has come to think about what we dared not to think.” He argued in favor of adopting peace with Israel as a method based on the model of superpower détente for which the culmination is not the resolution of conflict as such. The final goal, Sa’id Ahmed wrote, is “the extinction of the Zionist enterprise with the absorption of Zionism in the Arab expanse.” Incrementalism and struggle, international pressure and Israel’s withering from within, serve as the signposts for achieving a peace that would not signal the end of the conflict—but the end of Israel.
Other noteworthy Egyptian personalities who dangled the idea of peace with normalization of relations with Israel included Naguib Mahfouz and Ali Salam, but they really seemed to intend full acceptance of Israel. Rage, boycott, and assault, burst forth against this betrayal of an Arab consensus that negated the right of a Jewish state in the midst of the Arab world. Sadat, however, had other thoughts in mind, while his beguiling persona radiated with the aroma of political theatre.
Sadat traveled to Israel in November 1977 and launched his so-called “peace initiative” to chart a novel course in Middle East political history. His strategy, when unraveled, encompassed a stratagem that could trap Israel into submission.
Sadat had intimated in private conversations with fellow-Arabs, that he would sign a peace treaty—as he did in 1979—if that was the only way to recover the Sinai peninsula. Moreover, the Camp David Peace Treaty included a plan for Palestinian autonomy in Judea, Samaria, and Gaza [soi-disant West Bank and Gaza Strip], which would serve as the political route toward the establishment of a Palestinian state. The essential purpose of such a state is the platform provided for irredentist disruption, invasion, and destabilization in Israel. Sadat referred in his Knesset speech in Jerusalem to the need for Israel withdrawing back to the June 4, 1967 lines, and to the need for a resolution of the Palestinian Question. Presumably, the latter matter required an additional Israeli capitulation to advance toward peace.
Sadat skillfully placed Israel on a political vector of territorial withdrawal. The Israel-Egyptian peace remained cold, no people-to-people peace evolved, anti-Semitism was the popular narrative in Egyptian society and culture. In the deal, Egypt got Sinai and, as Sadat bitingly remarked of the Israeli Prime Minister: “Menachem [Begin] got a piece of paper.” Yet the deep significance of Sadat’s initiative was the underlying precedent of future withdrawals on other fronts. The clever Egyptian president had said in a 1975 interview: “The task of our generation is to return to the [pre-] 1967 borders; afterward the next generation will carry the responsibility.”
Yasir Arafat
Yasir Arafat assumed the leadership of the multi-faction Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) established in 1964. Its covenant stated that Palestine is an Arab land, Zionism is a foreign invader, and the Jews do not qualify as a people. The only way to liberate Palestine was “armed struggle” (Art. 9) against the racist, fascist, and Nazi-like state of Israel.
In 1974, a decade later, the PLO formulated its “phased plan” to persevere along the path of liberation, but as a staged process. It would begin with the establishment of a “combatant national authority” over any territory liberated from Israel, and then advance toward the founding of a democratic Palestinian state over all of Palestine—in place of Israel. The 1988 Palestinian Declaration of Independence, while mentioning the 1947 Partition Plan with the ominous implication of Israel relinquishing areas from its 1948 victory, seemed a sign of moderation and acceptance of Israel. However, this very generous interpretation—in the year when a militant and violent Palestinian uprising struck Israel—lacked validation.
Thereafter, the Oslo agreement in 1993 launched the PLO-phased plan onto the international and political stage. Israel recognized the PLO and Palestinian rights, and agreed to interim arrangements for Palestinian self-government in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Israel’s military control on the ground morphed into incremental territorial pullbacks in 1994, 1995, 1997, and 1998.
Despite this, Arafat’s overall response was incompatible with reconciliation: he called for jihad, recalled the 628 Hudaybiyyah episode in early Muslim history when Islam’s prophet Mohammad violated his agreement with the Meccans—foreshadowing Arafat violating his agreement with the Israelis. His authorized murderous terrorist operations against the Israeli civilian public. Prime Minister Rabin was lost in moral confusion when he epitomized Israel’s political drift from common sense by labelling Israeli victims of terrorism “sacrifices for peace.”
Arafat dared to take the big idea of Palestine and lodge it, as Fouad Ajami wrote, in the filth and misery of the Gaza Strip. He set up an administration, formed a police force, and dreamt that the flag of Palestine will fly on the walls of the Old City of Jerusalem. Palestinian personalities like Mahmud Darwish and Edward Said were aghast at what was in their eyes Arafat’s betrayal of the big idea; after all, Israel was not collapsing nor withering, and Arafat was grinning and cajoling with the enemy. They considered him a traitor for what was in their eyes the surrender of Palestine. However, Arafat knew better, playing to the Israeli and international audiences, displaying a gusto for histrionics (kafiyyeh, scruffy beard and all): he demanded, took, and asked for more. He designed a new political game and set in motion the PLO’s phased plan.
The social and economic interaction between Israelis and Palestinians after 1967 offered a political mechanism to undo the integrity of the Jewish state. With the emergence of the Palestinian Authority in 1994, cooperation acquired an official and institutional foundation. This provided Palestinian spokespersons with the idea that, in the end, one state would emerge for the two peoples. The disappearance of Israel and the rise of a secular democratic state including pre-’67 Israel and the post-’67 territories would be cast as a triumph for equality, reconciliation, and justice. Ziad Abu Ziad, Faisal Al-Husseini, and Abu Iyad, were among Palestinian figures who advocated the one-state solution. A shared sovereignty arrangement according to George Abed, or a cantonal framework in one state according to Emile Nahle, were some of the formulations that Palestinians elucidated. Underlying the spirit of such proposals was the partial and interim quality of the Oslo accords. Nabil Shaath, senior PLO negotiator, openly declared that any agreement achieved was only temporary and non-obligatory while pursuing the goal to emasculate Israel’s diminishing geo-strategic condition.
Meanwhile, considering the bottleneck on the West Bank political playing field, whose basic feature was Israeli settlement and military rule, the PLO/PA was relentless in demanding a two-state solution. This tactical move, with its air of Palestinian moderation and concession, mobilized international opposition to ongoing Israeli “occupation.” In itself, a Palestinian state in the West Bank contiguous to Israel would provide the PLO with its Ho Chi Minh trail on the road to conquering Tel Aviv.
Oslo, in sum, was a strategy for ongoing war, in part violent and in part diplomatic, rather than for achieving an authentic peace. A November 2021 confirmation of the PLO-Fatah position, in anticipation of the 104th anniversary of the Balfour Declaration, appeared in a Palestinian Authority newspaper that explicitly called for the need “to put an end to the colonialist Zionist project [Israel].” Even though the Palestinians deceived the Israelis, at other times they did not flinch from telling the truth.
Mansour Abbas
Mansour Abbas (not to be confused with Mahmoud Abbas/Abu Mazen president of the Palestinian Authority), deputy head of the southern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel, led his Ra’am (United Arab List) party in the March 2021 Israeli parliamentary elections to garner a commendable four seats. He then became a partner and participant in the Bennett-led coalition government and is playing an unexpected and critical role in Israeli politics. Abbas presented a pleasant demeanor, while yet committed to what he called a “civilian jihad” for the benefit of the Arab community in the country. The Israeli government had declared illegal and banned the northern branch of the Islamic Movement in 2015, for having provided funds to Hamas (the Islamic Resistance Movement) which in its Charter (Art. 2) identifies as a wing of the Muslim Brothers.
The contemporary Islamic Movement in Israel is one of the many ideological offshoots in the world of the Muslim Brothers founded in Egypt in 1928. Its doctrinaire patron demands militancy and warfare to establish Islam as the “whole of life,” in the words of Bernard Lewis. Secrecy and insurrection were part of the Brothers’ modus operandi. However, the Israeli branch within the pre-’67 borders, cognizant of the anomaly of non-Muslim dominancy over Muslims in the Jewish state, chose to focus on seemingly benign and unobjectionable issues: the re-Islamization of Arab identity through prayer, education, and social activities, modulated by law-abiding behavior to bolster the self-defined Palestinian citizenry.
Mansour Abbas related that he was raised on the legacy of Sheikh Abdallah Nimr Darwish who founded the Islamic Movement in Israel. A collection of Darwish’s writings and sermons, translated into Hebrew from the Arabic, appeared in 2021 under the title Islam is the Solution. Those four words constitute the quintessential theme that the founder of the Muslim Brothers, Hasan al-Banna, formulated. It is the slogan of the Islamic Movement, and recurs frequently when Darwish explained that Islam as a religion of peace and justice is the only true guide and remedy for all the ills of civilization. The Koranic revelation and the ensuing Sharia law, it follows, will provide a framework for co-existence and harmony between Muslims and non-Muslims (especially Jews and Christians), without oppression, occupation, and terror. Darwish presents Islam as a humanitarian religion and a bastion for tolerance and equality, ignoring that the Koran (Ch. 9: verse 33) obligates Muslims to make the true faith “triumphant over all religions.” Indeed, the sheikh confidently stated that the missionary/propaganda Islamic dawa assures that “the future belongs to this religion.”
Mansour Abbas took the sloganeering Darwish rhetoric to the forefront of a public campaign in the spring of 2021. This, with Ra’am joining the government coalition headed by Naphtali Bennett, leader of the rightist Yamina Party, signaled a revolutionary development for the Arab presence in Israeli politics. Abbas relegated to the margins of discussion the conventional and controversial Arab themes of Palestinian statehood, liberating Jerusalem, ending Israeli occupation, and calling for refugee return. He brought the discussion down to the non-political practicalities of local Arab government, personal security and gun controls, essential services, and infrastructure. Darwish had instructed his followers to respect the state and avoid any violence. These teachings from both the mentor and now voiced by the student were designed to foster an environment of moderation and accommodation, promote Jewish-Arab understanding, and advance integration of the Arab minority within the Jewish-majority society in Israel. This was in stark contrast to the shrill political language, spewing vitriolic attacks against Israel and its army, typical of the alternative Joint Arab List (JAL) with its snarling and confrontational Members of Knesset.
At root, Mansour Abbas chose to adopt a political strategy that allowed, to use a phrase from Fouad Ajami, “the conquered Palestinian citizens of Israel from 1948 to jump on the wagon of the successful Zionist enterprise.” This did not indicate acceptance of Zionism, as a broad Arab consensus never came to terms with the Jewish national revival and its culmination in statehood. The Arab narrative sees Zionism and its ’48 victory as the cause of the Arab catastrophe (Nakba). Contrary to MK Ahmad Tibi of the JAL, whose arrogance allowed him to tell President Rivlin to his face in September 2019: “We [Arabs] are the owners of this land,” Abbas meticulously avoided imperious and insulting language. For now, he ostensibly put the Palestinian Question on freeze, leaving it for a later stage. In public, he chose pragmatism over ideology.
Yet reticence has its limits. In his opening Knesset address on June 13, 2021, with the launching of the new government, Mansour Abbas referred to the “historic injustice that has been our [Palestinian Arab] fate over the years because of the [Israeli] policy of discrimination.” For him, was not the very founding of Israel in Palestine in 1948 the core injustice? On June 27, Abbas gave an interview with Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper in which he directed his present thoughts to “realizing our [Arab] civil, national, and religious rights” in the Israel of 1949. Echoing his mentor’s outlook, Abbas expected civil equality for the Arab citizens, without submission or inferiority, in peace and mutual security, with cooperation and tolerance between the two [Jewish and Arab] peoples. The language and tone were wrapped in a veil of secrecy around the long-term goal of the Islamic Movement. Boualem Sansal, a noteworthy Algerian novelist, had cautioned the public about Islam in France—perhaps also fitting for Islam in Israel—that initially “the threat is invisible.”
More than seventy years following Jewish statehood, the exceptional advances that Israel registered offered the Arab citizens opportunities to participate in the benefits of a modern society. In return for Ra’am’s pivotal role in providing Bennett with a majority in the Knesset, the 2021-22 budget committed a whopping 35 billion shekels for development in the Arab sector. Israel has never demanded that Arabs sacrifice their multiple Muslim and Palestinian identities as a sign of allegiance to the state, or as a condition for state funding. In short, integration ‘yes’, assimilation ‘no’.
The Muslim Movement in Israel declares its commitment to Israel as a formal and legalistic affirmation, but a recent news report in October 2021 related that two senior members of Ra’am ran a fund revealingly called “48 Aid” that transferred money to a Hamas outfit. The movement’s commitment to Islam is indeed absolute. Democracy is not the solution—because Islam is the solution. The green flags of Islam, symbolic of the Muslim Brethren and the Islamic Movement, adorned the stage at a speech by MK Mansour Abbas to his followers on April 3, after the dramatic achievement by Ra’am in the March Israeli elections.
Abdallah Darwish quoted the Koran (ch. 16) that, with the help of Allah, Muslims must be patient. Abbas does not boycott Israel nor publicly malign her. He just does not think she has a right to exist as a Jewish state as defined in the 2018 Basic Law: Israel the Nation-State of the Jewish People. Mansour Abbas has intimated that some matters, like a Palestinian state, should be left for later. Nonetheless, while his party and electoral agenda tackles problems in local Arab life in Israel, dealing with roads and transportation, electricity and housing, Abbas talked about political matters with King Abdullah II when he responded to an invitation to visit Amman in early November.
Deception & Delusion
The cumulative policies of Sadat, Arafat, and Abbas, over the last decades constitute a pattern, multiple links in a strategy of stages to diminish, demoralize, and finally demolish the Jewish state.
The comprehensive Arab campaign revolves around three circles. Egypt represents the external circle, to which we attribute the Sinai withdrawal, also pullbacks from south Lebanon in the year 2000, and the transfer on the eastern frontier of lands to Jordan in 2018. The Palestinians represent the internal circle with withdrawals from parts of Gaza and the Jericho salient in 1994; then from cities, villages and rural areas in Judea and Samaria in 1995, Hebron in 1997, parts of Samaria in 1998; then the total pullback from the Gaza Strip in 2005, including areas in northern Samaria. Arabs in Israel proper represent the domestic circle, launching a political flight from the Zionist bedrock of Israel’s existence. Now the ideological and national foundations of Israel are tottering with concessions to the Islamic Movement and accepting its participation at the heart of political affairs.
The domestic element draws the circle to the source of things in the Arab Grand Strategy. It constitutes the final phase, reaching the climax and pointing to the finale. The Arabs look to the future, though Israel is strapped to the present. Mansour Abbas would concur with Sheikh Abdallah Azzam, a Palestinian who journeyed from Jordan to Afghanistan to preach jihad against the Soviet invasion, who wrote that “Palestine is the foremost Islamic problem.” However, that problem can be resolved by politics and not necessarily—or only—through warfare.
Through Nietzsche, we can better understand how a democracy—like Israel’s—experiences a loss of will. An excess of tolerance and pluralism, with no hard sacred values, dilutes the judgment and seeps the energy from people in leadership. No matter how bizarre the demand, leaders in a democracy are sensitized to say “yes” to all and every disaffected and disgruntled groups. The combination of victimology and indoctrination fill the echo chambers, and the media engage in a brainwashing assault on behalf of the alleged underdog—the Arabs. Of a like mind with John Stuart Mill and Lord Acton, the activists and propagandists list the benefits of freedom and vitality that flourish in a country of many nationalities, lodged in a common union.
The Israeli experience, still unfolding, carries an alternative and ominous meaning. The fact that Arab citizens weigh in heavily in demographic proportions of crime and violence against both fellow-Arabs and Jews is a menacing sign. Poll findings revealing Arab rejection of a Jewish-majority state gain scant public attention. Alongside that, Arab employment in high-profile jobs, from professors to pharmacists, free from any discriminatory hiring practice, is a noticeable social reality. Active support from the Israeli Left combined with the tacit support of the Israeli Right accelerate the emerging peril to the integrity of the Jewish nation-state. Jews will increasingly not feel safe and at home in their own country.
Shmuel Trigano has written persuasively on the destructive potential of the ideology of multi-culturalism, post-modernism without truths, minority rights for all, and identity politics, as an immediate, present, and future danger to the state of Israel. The mayor of the Arab town of Taibe, who is close to Mansour Abbas, gave voice to what is obvious to him and his Palestinian fellow-compatriots: “Taibe is part of Palestine,” adding, “You [Israel] cannot erase our identity.”
Memory is at the root of identity. It can also serve as an impetus for action. It becomes unacceptable to forgive what is a scalding old grievance that future generations must address. Recall the struggle for justice in the story of the King of Amon in the Book of Judges, who after three hundred years went to war against Israel for having conquered his lands long earlier. The Arab strategy of stages against Israel is resolute and tireless. Is it too harsh to characterize the present stage in the Arab strategy as going for Israel’s political jugular?
The success of a sly deception depends not only on the skill of the deceiver but also on the indiscretion of the deluded. Sadat fooled Begin who thought there would be a warm peace with Egypt. Arafat fooled Rabin who thought there would be peace with the Palestinians. Abbas is now fooling Bennett who thinks it will be beneficial for Israel to conciliate and integrate the Arabs in Israel. The wheel turns and stops always with Israel’s misunderstanding.
*Dr. Mordechai Nisan lectured in Middle East Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He has written extensively on political topics.
https://www.newenglishreview.org/custpage.cfm?frm=190953&sec_id=190953

Iran: Exporting Oil or Revolution?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 10/ 2021
«The greatest achievement of Imam Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution!”
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104691/amir-taheri-iran-exporting-oil-or-revolution-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%b7%d8%a7%d9%87%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d8%a5%d9%8a%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%86-%d8%aa%d8%b5%d8%af%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%81%d8%b7/
This is how the daily Kayhan in Tehran, believed to reflect the views of Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei, describes what it labels a “Resistance Front” led by Iran.
The paper’s editorial does not say why it needs to raise the controversial issue at this time. One possible reason may be a behind-the-scenes debate about the need for reviewing a policy that has cost Iran billions over the past decades.
With Tehran facing a serious liquidity problem, the administration of former President Hassan Rouhani proposed to cut the “resistance” budget by around 10 percent in the next Iranian year starting March 2022. Such a cut would have affected the various members of the “front”, that is to say, the Assad regime in Damascus, the Houthi faction in Yemen, the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah, Hashd al-Shaabi and other Shiite militias in Iraq, plus the Afghan Hazara Fatimiyoun fighters, at a time that, according to Kayhan, they are all under pressure. The editorial indicates that the debate has ended with the victory of those opposed to reducing the cash flow to Tehran’s regional “allies”.
“Creating and maintaining the Resistance Front is the best investment that the Islamic Republic has made,” the paper asserts.
The new administration of President Ebrahim Raisi has rearranged the budget to prevent any cuts in “resistance funding” which is handled by the Quds Corps led by Major-General Ismail Qaani.
There is little doubt that the ultimate decision-maker, as in most other cases, was the “Supreme Guide”, who believes that the survival of his regime depends on the survival of the network that the late Gen. Qassem Soleimani created.
The editorial quotes Khamenei as saying: “The Quds Corps isn’t just a military, security, intelligence, diplomatic, economic, or public service force but all of them at once.”
In other words, the Quds Corps is an intra-national government for “Resistance Front” countries that is to say Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and, to be sure, Iran itself. The paper revives the old idea of creating what it calls “an institution” to supervise the governance of the countries concerned under Iranian leadership. It mentions the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as possible models.
It was in that spirit that the late Gen. Soleimani deployed units of his Iraqi militia to the Iranian province of Khuzestan during a massive flooding crisis that could have led to anti-regime revolts. Quds Corps has also been training an unknown number of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters in speaking Persian for possible deployment, when and if needed, to protect the regime against revolts inside Iran.
Researcher Reza Mohammedi suggests that Khamenei regards Hezbollah as his Praetorian Guard ready to kill and die for him even if he is abandoned by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and Baseej (Mobilization).
This may be an exaggeration but the Kayhan editorial says that without the “Resistance Front” there would be no Iran and, of course, no Iraq, no Syria, no Lebanon, and no Yemen. Control of four Arab countries is vital for protecting the Islamic Revolution.
It also boasts that “no one has quit the Resistance Front or joined the other side.”
It does not say what “the other side” is. The American “Great Satan” and the Israeli “little Satan” are obvious targets. But the editorial quotes the late Ayatollah Khomeini as airing much bigger ambitions: “We must create a global party of the mustadhafin (the dispossessed) and offer a third way to all mankind between East and West.” It is on that basis that the Islamic Republic has forged alliances with numerous non-Muslim groups in all continents, mostly on the left.
In that context, Tehran has been pumping cash and arms into regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and, until recently, Zimbabwe. It has also been in alliance with antiwar groups in Europe and North America while funding numerous non-Muslim politicians and celebrities across the Middle East.
Non-Shi’ite Palestinian outfits such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad have also been on the payroll of “The Resistance Front” for decades.
With the Islamic Republic facing its worst financial crisis one might have thought that the budget cut suggested by Rouhani for “exporting revolution” would have sailed through without opposition.
However, we now know that the” Supreme Guide” is ready to take the bread away from Iranians so that he can continue fattening Bashar al-Assad and Hassan Nasrallah and scores of other “for sale” personalities across the world.
To be able to do that, Khamenei is counting on US President Joe Biden to ease some sanctions imposed by Donald Trump.
A 35-page proposal presented by Islamic negotiators earlier this month at Vienna talks with the 5+1 group spells out Tehran’s need for cash in some detail.
This is based on a formula initially suggested by former Islamic Foreign Minister Muhammad Javad Zarif in talks with his French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian almost three years ago. Zarif estimated that Tehran needed a minimum of $60 billion a year to pay its military and security personnel, keep the “Resistance Front” afloat and continue “exporting” revolution”.
At the time Khamenei dismissed the formula as a trick by “New York Boys” to weaken the “Resistance Front”. He has now adopted it as core policy in the Vienna talks while the Raisi team multiplies signs that more concessions may be offered later.
Khamenei demands that the 5+1 deposit $3 billion a month in a German bank and another$1 billion monthly in a French bank from Iran’s frozen assets while allowing the Islamic Republic to increase oil exports to 2.5 million barrels a day. Depending on the price of crude oil, all that could provide Khamenei with around $80 billion extra income, higher than that envisaged by the Zarif-Le Drian formula.
The big concession that Khamenei’s formula offers is to make the arrangement subject to mutually agreed time limits. That could give the 5+1 the power to turn off the cash faucet at the end of an agreed time frame.
Khamenei has often talked of “heroic flexibility”, his catchphrase for beating the retreat when and if necessary. Thus, his regime has survived on the edge of the precipice for decades. His recipe is simple: Live from one day to another but, even if you can’t export oil, make sure that you can continue exporting revolution. The Khomeinist system can survive without exporting oil but can’t do so if it stops exporting revolution.
Thus the 5+1, knowingly or out of ignorance, are barking up the wrong tree when they seek a deal on how much oil Tehran can export and how much uranium it can enrich.

Olympic Boycotts Put China In a Quandary
Adam Minter/Bloomberg/Friday, 10 December, 2021
On Monday, the White House announced that American officials will boycott the Beijing Olympics in February over China’s human-rights record. Australia, Canada and the UK soon joined in. Other democracies will likely follow. Predictably, China has promised “resolute countermeasures.”
Whatever those might be, the US has little to fear. China’s global athletic ambitions leave it no choice but to continue engaging the rest of the world on the field of play.
For decades, China has used international sporting events to project its rise at home and abroad. Those efforts didn’t amount to much until the International Olympic Committee voted in 1979 to allow China to participate in the games (a single Chinese athlete had competed in 1952). Five years later, a Chinese team arrived at the Los Angeles games under the slogan “Break out of Asia and advance on the world.” The phrase hinted at China’s bold ambitions, and the team ended the games a surprising fourth in the medal table.
Since then, China’s investment in sports has only grown. In the Communist Party’s view, hosting the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing underlined not only China’s arrival, but the political cohesion that would be essential to its continued rise. Even 13 years later, backhanded comparisons between those games and subsequent Olympics (and the governments responsible for them) are common in Chinese news coverage, social media and street-corner conversations.
Yet this sports nationalism isn’t absolute, especially when it threatens the country's ability to compete in the world’s preeminent games. At this summer’s Tokyo Olympics, two Chinese athletes wore Chairman Mao pins during a medal ceremony, likely violating the IOC’s prohibitions on political expression. China’s state media initially celebrated the gesture — but after the IOC launched an investigation, censors edited out the pins from broadcasts and the Chinese Olympic Committee quickly promised that such displays wouldn’t happen again.
Pragmatism over patriotism also explains China’s willingness to seek foreign help to improve its athletes. Imported foreign coaches are increasingly commonplace, especially in sports in which China has yet to succeed internationally. It’s also common for China to send prized athletes abroad for training, including to American universities. Ever since Yao Ming was drafted into the NBA in 2002, China has helped its sports stars compete in top professional settings overseas.
Even on more sensitive matters, practicality usually prevails. When an NBA team executive tweeted support for Hong Kong's democracy movement in 2019, China reacted furiously, pulling the league’s valuable broadcasts from state-run television and private streaming services. Two years later, the government is quietly relenting in the face of the league’s immense popularity — and the awkward prospect that Chinese players might aspire to compete in a banned league.
In 2019, China’s ruling state council issued an “Outline for Building a Leading Sports Nation,” which envisioned the country becoming a “modern sports power” like the US by 2050. To get there, it called for boosting China’s global competitiveness, national physical fitness and domestic sports industry. Yet it also highlighted a quandary: Each of those goals requires engagement with international athletes, coaches and organizations who might say something offensive about China. Disengaging would only hurt Chinese athletes, sponsors and fans.
It’s a frustrating position for the authorities. For the past half-decade, they’ve prioritized national self-sufficiency in everything from semiconductors to soybeans. But there’s no realistic way for China to “decouple” its athletes from global leagues and competitions. Local alternatives won’t be enough.
That appears to be dawning on Chinese companies, if not the government. Last week, after the Women’s Tennis Association expressed concern for Peng Shuai — the Chinese tennis star who had accused a former government official of sexual assault — the streaming platform iQiyi Inc. asked that its logo be removed from the group’s website. It did not, however, seek to sever its lucrative digital-rights agreement. Quite likely, iQiyi is hoping that the controversy will pass and it can resume building tennis into one of the country’s most popular sports.
China is likely to take a similarly symbolic approach to the diplomatic boycott. For now, it can’t afford to alienate American broadcasters and global sponsors. It certainly can’t risk cutting off its athletes from world-class training and competition. For China, the games must go on.

مارك ديوري: ذمية الغرب…مسار جديد
The Dhimmitude of the West: A New Trajectory?
by Mark Durie/Markdurie.com/Middle East Forum/December 1, 2021
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/104683/104683/
This article appeared in Ruth Nicholls, ed. 2021. Perspectives on Islam and Politics. Occasional Papers in the Study of Islam and Other Faiths No. 9. Wantirna: MST Press, 85-95.
“The Prayer” by Yasha Shapira in Ramat Gan, Israel, commemorates Jews who were killed in the 1941 “Farhud” pogrom in Iraq.
Dhimmitude is an Islamic phenomenon. It describes the condition of submission to Islamic dominance, yet without conversion to the Islamic faith.
Under classical theological formulations, developed in the first centuries of Islam, the region where Islam rules is known as Dar al-Islam “the House of Islam.” From the very beginning the Dar al-Islam included many non-Muslims, indeed they were normally in the majority after initial conquest. Based on the example of Muhammad’s dealings with the conquered Jewish farmers of Khaybar, Fadak, Tayma and Wadi-l Qura, the institution of the dhimma pact was developed in Islamic law to define the legal status of those who refused to convert to Islam. The dhimma was granted by Muslim conquerors as a concession to the vanquished: an institutional legal framework which promised a measure of religious freedom, and determined the social and economic place of non-Muslims in the Islamic state. In return the people of the pact, known as dhimmis, were required to pay tribute in perpetuity to the Muslim Community (the umma), and to adopt a position of humble servitude to it.
The Koranic verse which dictates the fundamental character of dhimmitude is Sura 9:29:
Fight those who do not believe in Allah nor in the Last Day, and do not forbid what Allah and His Messenger have forbidden, and do not practice the religion of truth, of those who have been given the Book [i.e. Jews and Christians], until they pay the jizya [tribute paid as compensation] readily and are disgraced.
Within Islamic polity, all non-Muslims who are not objects of war or slaves are considered by the sharia to be dhimmis – communities who are allowed to exist within the Dar al-Islam by virtue of surrender under the conditions set by a dhimma pact. These are the permanently conquered peoples of Islam.
The term dhimma, often translated as “pact of protection,” is better translated as “pact of liability.”
The term dhimma is often translated as “pact of protection,” and the conquered non-Muslims are described as “protected.” This is misleading. The Arabic verb dhamma means “blame, find fault, censure for evil conduct,” so in its original use, the word dhimma implied blame or fault: it referred to a covenant, the non-observance of which would incur a liability. It is therefore better translated as “pact of liability.”[1]
The historian Bat Ye’or has documented the social, political, economic and religious conditions of dhimmi communities – Jews and Christians – in the Middle East.[2] This is a sad history of dispossession and decline. Legal provisions applying to dhimmis ensured their humiliation and inferiority, and to this was added the often crippling taxes which were allocated to support the Muslim community. Under conditions of dhimmitude there was also a constant risk of jihad conditions being reinvoked – of lawful massacre, enslavement and looting – if the dhimmi community was considered to have failed to live up to the conditions of their pact.[3] According to some jurists, a single non-Muslim’s failure to keep the dhimma conditions could result in the whole community losing its protection, and the jihad restarting.
History records many examples where dhimmis were attacked by their fellow Muslim citizens on such grounds, for example the massacres of the Jews of Granada in 1066, and of the Christians of Damascus in 1860.
A seminal work on the topic.
Like sexism and racism, dhimmitude is not only manifested in legal and social structures, but in a psychology of inferiority, a will to serve, which the dominated community adopts in self-preservation. This was described by Bat Ye’or:
THE LAW REQUIRED FROM DHIMMIS A HUMBLE DEMEANOR, EYES LOWERED, A HURRIED PACE. THEY HAD TO GIVE WAY TO MUSLIMS IN THE STREET, REMAIN STANDING IN THEIR PRESENCE AND KEEP SILENT, ONLY SPEAKING TO THEM WHEN GIVEN PERMISSION. THEY WERE FORBIDDEN TO DEFEND THEMSELVES IF ATTACKED, OR TO RAISE A HAND AGAINST A MUSLIM ON PAIN OF HAVING IT AMPUTATED. ANY CRITICISM OF THE KORAN OR ISLAMIC LAW ANNULED THE PROTECTION PACT. IN ADDITION THE DHIMMI WAS DUTY-BOUND TO BE GRATEFUL, SINCE IT WAS ISLAMIC LAW THAT SPARED HIS LIFE. THE WHOLE CORPUS OF THESE PRACTICES … FORMED AN UNCHANGING BEHAVIOR PATTERN WHICH WAS PERPETUATED FROM GENERATION TO GENERATION FOR CENTURIES. IT WAS SO DEEPLY INTERNALISED THAT IT ESCAPED CRITICAL EVALUATION AND INVADED THE REALM OF SELF-IMAGE, WHICH WAS HENCEFORTH DOMINATED BY A CONDITIONING IN SELF-DEVALUATION. … THIS SITUATION, DETERMINED BY A CORPUS OF PRECISE LEGISLATION AND SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS BASED ON PREJUDICE AND RELIGIOUS TRADITIONS, INDUCED THE SAME TYPE OF MENTALITY IN ALL DHIMMI GROUPS. IT HAS FOUR MAJOR CHARACTERISTICS: VULNERABILITY, HUMILIATION, GRATITUDE AND ALIENATION.[4]
[4]
As one Iranian convert to Christianity put it, “Christianity is still viewed as the religion of an inferior class of people. Islam is the religion of masters and rulers, Christianity is the religion of slaves.” Often dhimmi Christians can be seen to collude to conceal their own condition, finding themselves psychologically unable to critique or oppose it.
Western Dhimmitude
Today Islam is exerting an increasingly influence on the destiny of Western cultures. Through immigration, oil economics, cultural exchange and terrorism, the remnants of what was once Christendom have been compelled to attend to Islam and its distinctive understanding of inter-religious relations. It is no coincidence that there was a dramatic increase in the use of the word Abrahamic after 9/11, to refer to a supposed family connection between Judaism, Christianity and Islam, as the basis of European culture was discovered to be “Abrahamic” rather than Judeo-Christian. This reflects an Islamic understanding that Abraham was a Muslim, and the common core of Judaism and Christianity was in fact Islam all along.
Although many of the laws of dhimmitude were dismantled during European expansion and colonisation, they have been making a comeback in many Islamic societies, and ISIS even attempted to fully restore the dhimma system.
Within a religiously conservative Islamic worldview, there are limited options for the roles that non-Muslims communities can play. The classical alternative to “enemies of Allah” was the submission and submissiveness of dhimmitude.
The requirement that non-Muslims affirm and serve Islam, or else find themselves at war with it, greatly limits the repertoire of responses that dhimmified Christians can have towards it. Where there are grounds for confrontation, the only way of struggling permitted to the dhimmi is by saying soft things and employing praise. Such political correctness is itself an injustice that needs to be exposed and challenged. This dynamic, when combined with the meanings of “struggle” (jihad) that Islam claims as its divine right without apology of any kind, can intimidate and debilitate Christians who are free and do not live under Islam. The cumulative effect can be that the gross injustices come to seem as somehow excusable or unexceptional.
A glaring example is the weak international response today to the persecution of non-Muslims (not just Christians) under Islam. This is epitomised in the slavish attitude adopted by Mary Robinson, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, in a statement she read to an Organisation of Islamic Conference Symposium on Human Rights in Islam held at the Palais des Nations in Geneva in 2002. After offering praise, Robinson praised the inherent righteousness of Islam:
It is important to recognize the greatness of Islam, its civilizations and its immense contribution to the richness of the human experience, not only through profound belief and theology but also through the sciences, literature and art.
No one can deny that at its core Islam is entirely consonant with the principle of fundamental human rights, including human dignity, tolerance, solidarity and equality. Numerous passages from the Qur’an and sayings of the Prophet Muhammad will testify to this. No one can deny, from a historical perspective, the revolutionary force that is Islam, which bestowed rights upon women and children long before similar recognition was afforded in other civilizations.
…And no one can deny the acceptance of the universality of human rights by Islamic States.[5]
Observe here the dhimmi themes of gratitude, affirmation of moral superiority of Islam (with the implication of inferiority of the infidel), and the denial of any possible voice of protest against human rights abuses in Islamic states. It is a classical dhimmi strategy to avoid confrontation by affirming what is best in Islam. Change for the better is only allowed to arise from values which Muslims can see as springing from their faith itself. This strategy conceals and disempowers the moral worth of non-Muslim value systems. It is the strategy of those whose existence is marginal and threatened.
It is a classical dhimmi strategy to avoid confrontation by affirming what is best in Islam.
For those living in liberal democracies this cannot be a healthy way to engage with the “other” that is Islam. It establishes a framework in which Islam takes on the role of a dominator that expects to be praised, admired, and stroked. From the Islamic side, the reaction to deserved criticism of Islam can be shock, denial and outrage.
In 2007 a letter entitled “A Common Word between Us and You” was addressed by 138 Muslim scholars to the Christians of the world. It received an appreciative response from a group of Yale theologians in a full-page advertisement taken out in the New York Times, which was endorsed by 300 Christian leaders, including such well-known figures as David Yonggi Cho, Robert Schuller, Bill Hybels, Rick Warren and John Stott. Consistent with the worldview of dhimmitude, the Yale theologians adopted a tone of grateful self-humiliation and self-inculpation, using expressions such as:
• “It is with humility and hope that we receive your generous letter”;
• the Muslims’ letter was “extraordinary” and written in “generosity”;
• “we ask forgiveness of the All-Merciful One and of the Muslim community around the world.”
No comparable expressions of humble gratitude or confession of guilt had been offered from the Muslim side. No doubt the Christians believed they were relating from a position of strength, by invoking Christian virtues of humility and self-examination. However they appear not to have taken account of the dynamics of dhimmitude and the possibility that these statements could be understood by Muslims as a display of self-acknowledged inferiority.[6]
For Christians there is a challenge here. In adapting to this requirement of grateful service, Christians can interpret their own submissiveness in gospel categories of forgiveness and service. Yet from the Islamic side this just looks like “submission,” i.e. the program of “Islam” itself is working. Islam interprets such submissiveness as its rightful due, not an expression of grace, and affords itself the right to the feeling of generosity. Likewise international aid can be seen as tribute, a rightful due.
Another cost of this dynamic is a widespread Islamic pattern of claiming the role of victim, whilst inculpating others for problems not of their making. Since Islam is not confronted with its own difficulties, whilst having its virtues affirmed, Muslim communities have permission to feel themselves aggrieved. This is enormously costly for the ongoing social and economic development of Islamic nations, and it is costly for Western societies.
9/11 and other assaults triggered off waves of submissive gestures towards Islam from Western leaders.
9/11 was a horrific wake-up for the West. Just as, in the worldview of the sharia, the violence of jihad is intended to produce conditions leading to surrender to the dhimma, so 9/11 and other violent assaults triggered off waves of submissive gestures towards Islam from Western leaders, beginning with George Bush’s declaration immediately after 9/11 that Islam is “non-violent”: “The face of terror is not the true faith of Islam. That’s not what Islam is all about. Islam is peace.”
President Obama, in his turn, expressed gratitude for America’s supposed debt to Islam in a speech to the Turkish Parliament: “We will convey our deep appreciation for the Islamic faith, which has done so much over the centuries to shape the world – including in my own country.”
President Sarkozy of France declared that Islam is “one of the greatest and most beautiful civilisations the world has known”, and Tony Blair, announcing a grant for the study of Islam, rejected the possibility that Islam could be anything but peaceable: “The voices of extremism are no more representative of Islam than the use in times gone by of torture to force conversion to Christianity represented the teachings of Christ.” The great irony in Blair’s remarks is that Muhammad, the founder of Islam, unlike Christ, did use torture and violence to further his religious goals.
Dhimmitude and Law Enforcement
On the ground, agencies of government have been impacted by the climate of appeasement. One of the more notorious examples has been the poor response of British police services and other agencies to a pandemic of grooming and sex-trafficking gangs, in which the large majority of traffickers have been Muslims, and the victims non-Muslim young teenage girls. The number of victims is estimated to be in the tens of thousands, or more. Repeatedly, when the perpetrators have finally been brought to justice, the authorities have been shown to have been reluctant to pursue investigation and prosecution.
A number of harrowing testimonies have been presented of victims who attempted to get help from the police, without success. One Dr Ella Hill (a pseudonym adopted for reasons of safety) reported that when she approached the police five times after being trapped by a trafficking gang, with X-rays of broken bones in hand as evidence, they told her “there was nothing they could do about it.” Hill, who managed to escape the trafficking gang and went on to qualify as a doctor, has come to attribute police inaction to the training the police receive in the UK concerning race and religion. Her sexual abuse was expressed, in the words of her abusers, in terms of her race and religion: she was abused by her tormentors as a white Christian, but, as she explained,
How the police have been trained for a long time is to preserve inter-racial relations, to not raise any racial hatred, to not accuse people of doing something in the name of religion which could cause anti-Muslim prejudice, or anti-Islamic prejudice. So this is the way that the police have been trained for a long, long time – years and years and years – so they are looking at it from completely the wrong way around. They are looking at it from the perpetrator’s perspective, rather than from the victims’ perspective, where a victim has been a victim of identity-based violence, where they have been attacked because of their race, and they’ve been attacked because of their religious status, which is a non-Muslim … whatever it is that the perpetrators feel is the religious justification for that person deserving punishment. … … The way that the system has been set up, it has been set up to have protected groups, and white people and non-Muslim people are not a protected group.[7]
In the unfolding of this scandal, there has been an intersection of a broader social agenda of appeasement towards Islam in the UK with the grid of identity politics, in which white people are considered to be the oppressors of coloured people. By this understanding, Muslims are by definition victims, not perpetrators, and it even becomes taboo to identify them as perpetrators.
Trevor Phillips, the former head of the UK’s Equality and Human Rights Commission, was expelled from the Labour Party for emphasizing that members of Muslim grooming gangs share common religious beliefs.
In the wake of a series of media reports about these gangs in 2017, Trevor Phillips, the former head of the UK’s Equality and Human Rights Commission had said “What the perpetrators have in common is their proclaimed faith. They are Muslims, and many of them would claim to be practising. It is not Islamophobic to point this out, any more than it would be racist to point out that the most active persecutors of LGBT people come from countries where most people are, like me, black.”[8] However, in March 2020, Trevor Phillips was expelled from Labor party for expressing such views, which were alleged to be Islamophobic.
These developments must be seen against the background of rising concern in the UK about the formation of Muslim communities which pursue separation, a concern which has focused on the rise of sharia courts as an alternative legal system. In 2016 Prime Minister Theresa May committed an independent review of sharia law in the UK, to inquire whether their activities are compatible with British law, specifically in their treatment of women in relation to arrangement for divorce, domestic violence and custody of children.
Dhimmitude and Counterterrorism
In recent decades communities across Western nations have been subjected to a series of terrifying violent attacks linked, according to the testimony of the perpetrators, to Islam. At first the response to this violence of many Western leaders was to publicly praise Islam, and express gratitude for it.
In the 1930’s, psychologist Walter Cannon proposed that an animal, when stressed, can adopt one of two visceral reactions: “fight” or “flight.”[9] There are other alternatives. One is the “freeze” response. Another is what Shelley Taylor, psychology professor at UCLA in 2000 called the “tend and befriend” response, whereby an animal responds to stress by caring for offspring – “tending” – and by affiliating with others – “befriending.”[10] The impetus to “tend and befriend” can also be directed towards the source of the threat, as when a dog which is being chastised by his master lies down and begins to lick the master’s feet. Among humans, captive-captor bonding – the “Stockholm Syndrome” – is a manifestation of this visceral response.
Western displays of submissive respect for Islam have not led to the cessation of jihadi violence.
Over the longer term, “befriend” responses towards Islam, marked by expressions of affection and respect towards both Muslims and Islam, have proved unsatisfactory. Displays of submissive respect have not led to the cessation of jihadi violence, and growing numbers of citizens have settled into a deep and informed discontent with what they regard as a dangerous and unsuccessful policy of appeasement.
After finishing up as prime minister, Tony Blair came to a more critical view of Islam’s potential to drive violence. The rise of ISIS and the extraordinary devastation it unleashed focussed his mind, as it did for many. In response to ISIS, Tony Blair commented that “many millions” of Muslims hold views which are “fundamentally incompatible with the modern world.”[11] Rejecting claims that western policies have caused the rise of Islamic terrorism, Blair acknowledged that ISIS seeks, not dialogue, but dominance, which needs to be be forcibly resisted.
Other Western leaders have shifted in their position on Islam (or Islamism) from praise to resistance. President Macron of France’s responded to the ritual killing of schoolteacher Samuel Paty by calling the battle with “Islamism” an “existential” struggle. He also said that France would not renounce the caricatures of Muhammad which Samuel Paty had shown to his students to teach them about freedom of speech. Already before Paty’s assassination, Macron had announced a suite of proposals to contain the influence of radical Islam in France, including greater regulation of mosques and imams. He said “We don’t believe in political Islam that is not compatible with stability and peace in the world.”[12]
Undoubtedly Macron’s policy of resistance to Islamic dominance and rejection of Islamic separatism reflects a changing mood in the general French population, many of whom have lost whatever appetite for appeasement they once had. Macron’s statements have predictably been met with howls of outrage from the Muslim world.
Across the West, dhimmitude was the flavour of the decade following 9/11. However the continued manifestations of jihadi violence, the fallout from ISIS, and growing concern about what Trevor Phillips has called “sleepwalking our way to segregation”:[13] these are gradually awakening the West to the existential challenge conservative Islamic polity presents to Europe and the West.
There are signs that Europeans are increasingly rejecting this trajectory towards dhimmitude.
Europe is currently going through a period of realignment of popular attitudes to Islam and revision of expectations of how Muslim minorities should function. There are signs that the trajectory towards dhimmitude, of willing submission to Islamic dominance, is being increasingly resisted, even if it has not yet been fully overturned. Yet, it is late in the day for this change to be happening, and the eventual outcome for Europe is far from clear.
Mark Durie is the founding director of the Institute for Spiritual Awareness, a writing fellow at the Middle East Forum, and a senior research fellow of the Arthur Jeffery Centre for the Study of Islam at the Melbourne School of Theology.
Notes
[1] Durie, Mark. The Third Choice: Islam, Dhimmitude and Freedom. Melbourne: Deror Books, 2010, 123.
[2] Bat Ye’or. The Dhimmi: Jews and Christians Under Islam. Rutherford, NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press & Associated University Presses. 1985. _____. The Decline of Eastern Christianity Under Islam: From Jihad to Dhimmitude, Seventh–Twentieth Century. Rutherford, NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press & Associated University Presses, 1996.
_____. Islam and Dhimmitude: where civilizations collide. Cranbury, New Jersey: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press, 2002.
[3] Durie, The Third Choice, 155ff.
[4] Bat Ye’or. Islam and Dhimmitude, 103-104.
[5] Mary Robinson, March 15, 2002.
[6] Ironically, while this dialogue was being conducted in the New York Times, the Royal Aal al-Bayt Institute for Islamic thought, which hosted the Common Word process on the Muslim side, was broadcasting fatwas on its website by its Chief Scholar which condemned converts from Islam to Christianity as apostates, and saying they deserved death or else they should be stripped of all legal rights and treated legally as non-persons (because they ought to be dead). http://acommonword.blogspot.com/2008/02/apostasy-fatwas-and-common-word-between.html
[7] Ella Hill, Interview on Triggernometry, 19 July 2020. https://youtu.be/etpAtC2S0uQ
[8] https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/839905/Rotherham-Trevor-Phillips-child-sex-abuse-Muslim-men-political-correctness
[9] Cannon, Walter. Wisdom of the Body. New York, NY: Norton, 1932.
[10] Taylor, Shelley E. “Tend and Befriend: Biobehavioral Bases of Affiliation under Stress,” Current Directions in Psychology Science, 2006, 15(6): 273-277.
[11] https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/many-millions-muslims-fundamentally-incompatible-west-says-tony-blair-a6954796.html
[12] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/26/macrons-clash-with-islam-sends-jolt-through-frances-long-debate-about-secularism
[13] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/19/race.socialexclusion
Bibliography
Bat Ye’or. The Dhimmi: Jews and Christians Under Islam. Rutherford, NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press & Associated University Presses. 1985.
––––––. The Decline of Eastern Christianity Under Islam: From Jihad to Dhimmitude, Seventh–Twentieth Century. Rutherford, NJ: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press & Associated University Presses, 1996.
––––––. Islam and Dhimmitude: Where Civilizations Collide. Cranbury, New Jersey: Fairleigh Dickinson University Press, 2002.
Cannon, Walter. Wisdom of the Body. New York, NY: Norton, 1932.
Durie, Mark. The Third Choice: Islam, Dhimmitude and Freedom. Melbourne: Deror Books, 2010.
Taylor, Shelley E. “Tend and Befriend: Biobehavioral Bases of Affiliation under Stress,” Current Directions in Psychology Science, 2006, 15(6): 273-277.
Related Topics: Counter-terrorism, Criminality, Dhimmitude, Muslims in Europe, Muslims in the West | Mark Duriereceive the latest by email: subscribe to the free mef mailing list
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US pursuit of democracy in Mideast shows clear signs of fatigue
Oussama Romdhani/The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
In convening the first “Summit for Democracy” of his administration, US President Joe Biden intended to send a message of democratic commitment to the Middle East and North Africa, among other parts of the world.
But his initiative has raised many questions in the region. The first has to do with his guest list. Many wondered if the choice of the 100-plus nations that were invited, and those that were not, was part of the intended message.
The answer was muddled by the broad spectrum of countries left out. In the Middle East, only Israel and Iraq were included. Nobody was surprised by the selection of Israel, long described in the US as “the only democracy in the Middle East.” Iraq’s choice was, however, a little more problematic. Perhaps if other close US allies, such as Morocco and Jordan, had also been included, it could have been perceived as the result of political and strategic determination. The only reason for choosing Iraq was probably Washington’s need for a token Arab presence.
Further muddling the issue were some of the explanations given by Biden administration officials. One senior official involved in the planning of the summit told Reuters that diversity in “experiences of democracy” was an important criterion for Washington in preparing its guest list. “This was not about endorsing, ‘You’re a democracy, you are not a democracy,’” the official said. Such an explanation has the merit of offering plausible deniability regarding any US intent to divide the region’s rulers into democrats and despots.
And then, through the convenient blur of the US narrative, lurked the absence of Tunisia, the poster child of the "Arab Spring" revolts. Until late last year, there was speculation Tunis could even host the summit.
That was before July 25, when President Kais Saied, supported by public opinion, suspended parliament and established a “state of exception.” The measures were put in place in response to what he said was an imminent threat to the country. Since then, uncertainties about the Tunisian democratic transition have been a matter of open concern in Washington. But if the Biden administration excluded Tunisia from the summit as a means of pressuring Saied, it was probably making the wrong bet. Since his July move, Tunisia’s president has shown little proclivity to buckle under domestic or foreign pressure.
Whatever the rationale, the absence of Tunisia from the forum is laden with symbolism. It is a potent reflection of the hurdles met by the 2011 wave of popular protests in ushering in a new democratic era in the Arab world.
The evolution of Tunisia’s transition is indicative of the challenges that legitimate democratic aspirations face in the region.
The Achilles heel of the Tunisian experience was its inability to deliver on socio-economic demands. Populist narratives and short-term fixes, offered by successive governments, were no substitute for much-needed commitment to reform.
The failure of the political class in the past decade led to disillusionment among large segments of the population, especially the young, about the disconnected ruling elite and by extension the democratic process altogether.
For a while, there was the illusion that focus on the electoral process could in itself be sufficient to anchor faith in democracy. But it was not.
With Libya now in the throes of a cold civil war over holding elections, many in the region will grow even more sceptical of whether the ballot box alone can save the day when other conditions are not yet met.
Foreign powers and international NGOs can provide help in guiding a transition. But too much help can give the impression of a model imposed from the outside. Experience has shown in Tunisia that the public tends to be suspicious of foreign moves to influence domestic dynamics.
The Tunisian experience also highlights the difficulty of finding a durable common ground between Islamists and their opponents and more broadly bridging religion and politics. The chasm of suspicion and animosity remains dangerously wide.
The other dilemma is how to find a compromise between anchoring much needed authority and avoiding the slippery road to authoritarianism. In Tunisia and other parts of the Arab world, many yearn for a resilient authority that is respectful of citizen rights, impervious to corruption and able to protect them from both extremist threats and Hobbesian social environments.
The discouraging outcome of the Tunisian experience gives the inevitable impression that the Middle East and North Africa are sinking into irrelevance when it comes to the democracy conversation. The pre-summit debate was focused on the challenges faced by the Western construct of liberal democracy versus authoritarian models of Russia and China. The democratic future of the Arab world did not loom large.
With a sense of fatigue about its previous pursuits of pro-democracy activism in the Middle East, Washington feels today such involvement is out of place, too costly and too unnerving. After 2011, it would have meant providing transitioning countries in the region with economic and security support to the level provided to Eastern Bloc nations after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Despite Western goodwill, support on this scale was not forthcoming.
Washington has found out the hard way that the complex considerations at play in the Middle East might not warrant the revival of the pro-democracy agenda of past decades.
The US has accordingly updated its priorities, keeping its focus on a few issues such as the threat of terrorism and Iran’s nuclear programme. The ambitions of “regional transformation,” and much less that of regime change, will definitely not be hovering over Biden’s democracy summit.
The Middle East may not be impervious to democracy but it wants it on its own terms, regardless of what US policymakers have on their agenda.

War and peace in the showdown with Iran
Ali Sarraf/The Arab Weekly/December 10/2021
The countries of the region are not in a position to engage in a military confrontation with Iran.
The Emirati overture towards Iran preceded by the exploratory talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran, could provide a motive to reconsider the prevailing realities in the region and reconsider the risks they involve.
Gulf states need to be more careful in assessing their options in the face of an aggressive Iranian regime that does not hesitate to utter threats but is weak, isolated and fearful.
If the UAE is moving on more than one front to build bridges, it is because its “zero-problems” policy can serve everyone. It can help all players distance themselves from difficulties, address local development imperatives and act as a catalyst for regional stability.
If it is the Iranian aggressive policies that pose a challenge to the countries of the region, then there are conclusions that should be drawn in order to assess the reaction to these policies.
Iran is not only a regional problem. It is an international problem, in at least two meanings of the word. The first is that it is a terrorist state that does not shy away from supporting and feeding terrorist groups not only in the region, but throughout the world.
The Iranian nuclear issue relates to strategic balances in the region. These balances are maintained by the United States, with the purpose of protecting Israel in the first place and also safeguarding its role as an international power.
The countries of the region are not in a position to engage in a military confrontation with Iran and it is not in their interest to involve themselves in such a confrontation in the first place. It is true that they possess deterrent military capabilities, but they will still need the strategic support of their international allies. These allies will not provide support for free, even if the battle is also theirs.
The countries of the region do not want and it is not in their interest, to be the cannon fodder in the battle others need to wage, nor to pay the price for this.
The economic cost of any military confrontation will be at least two trillion dollars, according to the most modest estimates.
Any armed confrontation between the two shores of the Gulf will cut at least 20 percent of the world's oil supplies for an unknown period of time. This could push oil prices to around $150 a barrel or more. This, in turn, will crush all chances of an already meagre global economic recovery after nearly two years of stagnation due to the Coronavirus pandemic.
The political turmoil that results from any military confrontation could last much longer than the confrontation itself.
There are no guarantees that any military engagement, even if the United States takes part in it, will lead to the overthrow of the Iranian regime. This would keep the danger alive.
Iran is an economically exhausted country and even its infrastructure is in a state of deep ruin. With the exception of its successful and relatively advanced nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, it can boast of nothing worthwhile other than recycling raw materials.
Iraq is the only regional party that can go to war with Iran. Iranian officials have been working for two decades to destroy Iraq so that it does not rise again for at least another fifty years. The long border of about 1,200 kilometres provides a geographical base that no other country possesses. There are also psychological and historical reasons that provide incentives for war with Iraq which are not available to any other people in the region.
Israel will not engage in a military confrontation with Iran without the United States. Israeli leaders delude their people when they say they are capable of striking Iran. They want to raise their citizens' morale. Nothing more.
The main question that what the United States wants from Iran if war breaks out? Does it want to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities or bring down the regime? The realistic goal would be to bring down the regime because it is the only way to remove all dangers and threats. But this is a battle that cannot be fought only from the air or by missile strikes. The United States needs to destroy all systems of command and control, centres of military power, communications, missile sites and nuclear facilities. It needs also to deploy at least a million soldiers. An American president who can do that is not yet born. As for the Iraqi president who could do that, he was killed. The United States handed him over to Iran's gangs to kill him.
The United States deserves all the humiliation it suffers from Iran. Because it created a monster and did not know how to control it.
You can buy weapons from the United States, but you cannot buy the risks and mistakes you make. There are three things the Gulf states should do: stay out of the fray, build an independent deterrent force and win the battle of time.
The people of Iran should solve their problem with their own regime.
The step taken by the UAE towards Iran and the same approach it took towards Turkey, is sound and prudent. A culture of cooperation and the search for common interests can replace the culture of conflict. This is the only "game" from which everyone can emerge a winner. Other options offer nothing but risks and losses.