English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 10/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
No one who believes in him will be put to shame. For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved
Letter to the Romans 10/01-13/:”Brothers and sisters, my heart’s desire and prayer to God for them is that they may be saved. I can testify that they have a zeal for God, but it is not enlightened. For, being ignorant of the righteousness that comes from God, and seeking to establish their own, they have not submitted to God’s righteousness. For Christ is the end of the law so that there may be righteousness for everyone who believes. Moses writes concerning the righteousness that comes from the law, that ‘the person who does these things will live by them.’ But the righteousness that comes from faith says, ‘Do not say in your heart, “Who will ascend into heaven?” ’ (that is, to bring Christ down) ‘or “Who will descend into the abyss?” ’ (that is, to bring Christ up from the dead). But what does it say? ‘The word is near you, on your lips and in your heart’ (that is, the word of faith that we proclaim); because if you confess with your lips that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved. For one believes with the heart and so is justified, and one confesses with the mouth and so is saved. The scripture says, ‘No one who believes in him will be put to shame.’ For there is no distinction between Jew and Greek; the same Lord is Lord of all and is generous to all who call on him. For, ‘Everyone who calls on the name of the Lord shall be saved.’”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 09-10/2022
Al-Rahi says ready to hold dialogue with every party over presidency
Rahi meets former President Aoun in Bkerki
KSA, China say Lebanon shouldn't be launchpad for 'terrorism'
Why can't Lebanon elect a president?
British Ambassador visits Tripoli: Reforms needed to unleash Lebanon’s great talent
Lebanon detainees stuck in limbo as judges' strike drags on
Bassil urges consensus on president, says Geagea refusing dialogue
Stephanie Saliba arrested over Riad Salameh's case and released after questioning session
Geagea urges govt. meeting over Hezbollah arms reports
Geagea hits back at Bassil over dialogue, Bkirki laments response
Bassil turns to Maronite patriarch for support amid Lebanon stalemate
Bassil: We will continue our efforts in Lebanon, abroad to end crisis
EXPLAINER: Why can’t Lebanon elect a president?/Kareem Chehayeb/AP/ 09 December 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 09-10/2022
Iran faces condemnation, more protests after execution
Iranian women in anti-regime protests being targeted in breasts and genitalia, say medics
Canada sanctions Iran, Russia and Myanmar over 'gross rights violations'
Putin says Russia could adopt US preemptive strike concept
Putin says other swaps with US 'possible' after Griner-Bout exchange
Israelis rapped for blocking Christian permits to visit Bethlehem
Netanyahu gets 10 more days to form government
Arab leaders welcome China’s cooperation in development at Riyadh summit
As Xi visits, resource-rich Gulf seeks stronger China ties
Saudi Arabia and China to prioritize relations

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 09-10/2022
Democracy at Work: Supporting Israel Regardless of its Government/Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/December 09/2022
Is Armenia, the world’s first Christian nation, in danger of disappearing?/Raymond Ibrahim/December 09/2022
Neither Here Nor There... Jordan and the Abraham Accords/Jonathan Schanzer/FDD/December 09/2022
A story for the next US presidential election/Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 09, 2022
Missiles and drones will not solve Iran’s problems/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/ December 09/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 09-10/2022
Al-Rahi says ready to hold dialogue with every party over presidency
Naharnet/December 09, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi said Friday that Monday's caretaker cabinet session "shouldn't have happened" especially that many parties were absent. A caretaker cabinet session was held on Monday despite being boycotted by the Free Patriotic Movement and the Tashnag party, triggering tensions between long-time allies Hezbollah and the FPM as MP Jebran Bassil blasted Hezbollah for attending the session and the latter responded that Bassil's comments were "inappropriate" and "unwise". On Friday, Bassil visited al-Rahi in Bkirki to discuss presidential matters. Al-Rahi said, after the meeting, that "dialogue is the only solution.""We have always been calling for dialogue, whether it's a bilateral dialogue between every party and me or an all-party dialogue," the patriarch said, in response to Bassil's demand to hold a Christian dialogue in Bkirki. But he considered that "an all-party dialogue would entail difficulties."

Rahi meets former President Aoun in Bkerki
NNA/December 09, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Bechara Boutros Rahi, is currently meeting in Bkerki with former President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun.

KSA, China say Lebanon shouldn't be launchpad for 'terrorism'
Agence France Presse/December 09, 2022
After talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and King Salman and his 37-year-old son Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, China and KSA expressed their keenness on stability and unity in Lebanon.
In a joint statement from Riyadh, they stressed the importance of making the required reforms and holding dialogue and consultations to overcome the crisis in Lebanon. The statement said that Lebanon shouldn't be a launchpad for "terrorist acts"and drug smuggling.
The two sides also stressed "the importance of stability" in oil markets, and spoke of "focusing on emissions rather than sources" in tackling climate change. Forty-six agreements and memorandums of understanding were announced on everything from housing to Chinese language teaching, as both sides are seeking economic and strategic benefits by deepening cooperation. President Xi Jinping will also meet Arab leaders in Riyadh. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas and Sudan's de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan had all arrived by Thursday afternoon.
Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has confirmed his attendance. Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, Tunisian President Kais Saied, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and Moroccan Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch have also confirmed their attendance.

Why can't Lebanon elect a president?
Associated Press/December 09, 2022
Lebanon has been without a president for over a month, its legislators unable to agree on a new head of state.
The impasse is holding up a range of initiatives, from putting into place structural reforms for an International Monetary Fund program to allowing the country's state-owned television channel to broadcast the World Cup. Here is a look at the latest episode of political paralysis in the crisis-hit country.
WHAT IS BEHIND THE DEADLOCK?
President Michel Aoun completed his six-year term on Oct. 30. Lebanon's deeply-divided parliament has met nine times to elect a successor and failed every time, worsening political paralysis and stalling measures to alleviate a crippling economic crisis that has pulled three-quarters of the population into poverty.
The weekly sessions have become farcical with most legislators casting blank ballots. Others have written in mock candidates, including late former presidents Nelson Mandela of South Africa and Salvador Allende of Chile. Parliamentarians often leave the session midway through, resulting in no quorum.
The tiny country's latest spell of paralysis also comes as it is scrambles to rekindle strained ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, which once kept Lebanon flush with cash. Hezbollah's dominance in Lebanese politics over the past decade and their backing of Yemen's Houthi rebels against the Saudi-led coalition has angered Riyadh. In 2021, Saudi Arabia banned agricultural exports from Lebanon, nominally due to shipments being used to smuggle drugs, and later that year banned all Lebanese exports after a minister called Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen "absurd."Experts say the impasse is somewhat linked to ongoing Saudi Arabia and Iran talks in Baghdad, Iraq, aiming to restore diplomatic ties.
"Saudi Arabia is clearly linking Yemen and Lebanon dossiers in its negotiations with the Iranian side," Carnegie Middle East Senior Fellow Mohanad Hage Ali said. "It's trying to assert itself as a main stakeholder, and that renewed interest could relate to them seeing a potential benefit that could be translated in Yemen."Lebanon's paralysis in parliament reflects that stalemate. "In order to elect a president in Lebanon, you first need to find a consensual figure who is not vetoed by major Lebanese players, and who is vetted and okayed by regional powers," said Karim Emile Bitar, Professor of International Relations at Beirut's Saint Joseph University. "So far you have a tug-of-war between the Iranian-Syrian axis backing Hezbollah and on the other hand the alliance that is closer to the United States and Saudi Arabia."The country has frequently witnessed political paralysis in its short and troubled history, including a presidential vacuum of over two years before Aoun's election in 2016. In 2008, armed clashes erupted for a week, before politicians gathered in Doha, Qatar to reach a settlement for a consensus presidential candidate. Ibrahim Mneimeh, an independent reformist legislator, says the impasse has become the "status quo" and believes traditional parties are waiting for "foreign interference" for a settlement. "Unfortunately this is happening over and over again." Mneimeh said.
WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
Under Lebanon's power-sharing system since its independence from France in 1943, a president has to come from the Maronite Catholic sect.While Hezbollah has yet to publicly name a candidate, public perception is that the group backs Suleiman Franjieh, a close ally of the party and of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The nominal candidate of the camp opposing Hezbollah and that often describes the group as a state-within-a-state is parliamentarian Michel Mouawad. Both candidates come from established political families.
Mouawad has received more votes than any other candidate, but has failed to garner a majority and is widely seen as too divisive a figure to reach the presidency. Meanwhile, Lebanese army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun has reportedly been discussed as a possible consensus candidate, though his name has not yet appeared on the ballot.
Parliamentarian Jebran Bassil, the son-in-law of President Aoun, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement party, and an ally of Hezbollah, has long been seen as Aoun's successor of choice. Though he appears out of the running due to limited popular support and being targeted by U.S. sanctions, he and his party have not yet endorsed another candidate.
WHAT ARE THE REPERCUSSIONS?
With no developments to break the impasse, most experts say that political blocs will focus on trying to extract maximum political concessions, including divvying up the appointment of ministerial and senior government posts. A Western diplomat who had met with most of Lebanon's political blocs told The Associated Press that they are playing a "waiting game."Hage Ali likens the current deadlock to a game of poker. "You keep your cards hidden, you don't blink or flinch, and wait until the side breaks down," he explained. "Everyone is maneuvering at this point, either showing up with a blank ballot or choosing a candidate who isn't viable."Meanwhile, tensions between hostile political groups in Lebanon continue to worsen. Hezbollah deputy secretary general Naim Kassem said the group would not accept a candidate who opposes its stockpile of arms and supports "the American-Israeli project" in Lebanon.
In the opposing camp, Mouawad has slammed Hezbollah and its allies for ruining ties with the Gulf and the wider international community, and at a discussion panel said would prefer paralysis over a new president affiliated to them. "We're seeing a repeat of the past where Hezbollah and allies give Lebanon two choices: either accept their candidate or have a presidential vacuum," said Charles Jabbour, a spokesman for the Lebanese Forces party, a Mouawad ally. There are also fears that a prolonged paralysis will further delay a possible IMF deal to recover its economy and renew investor confidence in the country.
The IMF has set conditions following a tentative agreement last April, including amending its banking secrecy law, restructuring its banks, and formalizing capital controls. Lebanon needs a president to ratify any laws that parliament passes. In the meantime, Lebanon is set to have the second highest inflation rate worldwide in 2022. "We are already on the verge of state collapse," Bitar said. "If the paralysis lasts more than just a few weeks or months it could lead to a complete collapse."

British Ambassador visits Tripoli: Reforms needed to unleash Lebanon’s great talent
Naharnet/December 09, 2022
The British Ambassador to Lebanon, Hamish Cowell, has visited the city of Tripoli for the first time. The visit aimed at understating the impact of the socioeconomic crisis on Tripolitans, and how UK funded projects are supporting livelihoods and community cohesion, the British Embassy said in a statement. Ambassador Cowell met a range of individuals working to promote reconciliation, social cohesion and opportunities for young people in Lebanon’s second city, the statement said. This included the Tripoli Mayor Engineer Ahmad Kamareddine, security officials, project partners and beneficiaries, and U.N. agencies.Ambassador Cowell visited the Northern Command and Control Center, which is funded by the UK Government’s Conflict, Security and Stability Fund (CSSF). Here Ambassador Cowell heard about how the center enables the ISF to better prevent and combat crime, handle threats, and provide safety and security for the community. At the UK CSSF-funded MARCH Cafe, young Tripolitans’ shared their inspiring stories of how the project has helped transform their futures, by creating a safe space for dialogue and supporting their communities. With the British Council-led project ‘Tripolives’, Ambassador Cowell learnt about the real Tripoli, including its rich heritage, culture and history and the need to combat stereotypes. At the British Council’s Shift Social Innovation Hub, Ambassador Cowell heard from Civil Society Organisations and about the Hub’s efforts to decrease tensions. Ambassador Cowell also attended a roundtable discussion with the International Organisation for Migration, the U.N. Refugee Agency and the Lebanese Red Cross where he heard about the challenges and tragedies associated with irregular migration in the north and support to survivors. Finally, Ambassador Cowell met vulnerable families living in Hay Al Tanak, one of the city’s most deprived neighborhoods, and heard about how they have been supported through the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund. "I was delighted to visit this beautiful, historic and vibrant city for the first time," Ambassador Cowell said, at the end of the visit. He went on to say that "the dire economic situation in Lebanon has left the people of Tripoli in unprecedentedly difficult living conditions." "I saw the devastating impact this is having throughout my engagements," he added. Cowell said that despite the tough conditions, he was encouraged to hear from young people who have benefited from UK-funded projects about their hopes for the future. "There is enormous human and economic potential in Tripoli, as there is throughout Lebanon." "It is crucial to implement the reforms needed to unleash the country’s great talent and potential, and achieve the better future Lebanon’s people deserve," he added.

Lebanon detainees stuck in limbo as judges' strike drags on
Agence France Presse/December 09, 2022
Taxi driver Youssef Daher has languished for months in prison without charge, one of scores stuck after Lebanese judges launched an open-ended strike in August to demand better wages in a collapsed economy. Judges have suspended their work as rampant inflation eats away at their salaries, paralyzing the judiciary and leaving detainees in limbo -- the latest outcome of Lebanon's years-long financial crisis. From his jail cell in the northern city of Tripoli, Daher sends daily messages to his lawyer asking him whether judges have ended what is already the longest strike for their profession in Lebanese history.
"My family lost their sole breadwinner and must now rely on aid to survive," he told AFP. Daher has not seen his wife and three children since he was arrested eight months ago because they cannot afford transportation to get to the prison, he said. Security forces arrested Daher after he gave a ride to a passenger accused of kidnapping -- unbeknownst to him, he said. Authorities did not press charges against Daher after questioning, so his lawyer requested his release. Then judges began their strike. His request has been pending ever since. Bureaucracy and rampant corruption have long delayed verdicts and judicial proceedings in Lebanon, where 8,000 people are estimated to be jailed, most of them awaiting a verdict. But now, underfunded public institutions have taken a hit after the country's economy went into free-fall in 2019, with basic state services like renewing passports or completing a real estate transaction often taking months to complete.
'A decent life'
Although judges' salaries are expected to triple as part of Lebanon's 2022 budget, their wages are currently worth only around $160 on average due to soaring inflation. "How can a judge live with his family on such a salary?" one striker asked, adding that some of his colleagues with chronic illnesses could no longer afford medication. "Judges were forced to launch this strike because their financial situation has become unbearable," he said. Judges who spoke to AFP said they also wanted better working conditions as they had been forced to toil without electricity or running water and buy their own office supplies like pens and paper. Lebanon's state electricity provider produces an hour of daily power on average, forcing residents to rely on private generators that public institutions often cannot afford. The judges' strike has compounded an already bleak reality for detainees, many of whom spend months or years awaiting a verdict. Lawyer Jocelyn al-Rai said her client, a Syrian youth, was arrested two months ago on drug trafficking charges without a warrant and has yet to face questioning, because the public prosecutor's office has stopped working. Despite the strike, certain courts continue to function.
In Beirut on Thursday, a criminal court sentenced Hassan Dekko, a man known as the "Captagon King", to seven years in prison with hard labor for producing and trafficking the stimulant, a judicial source said. Dekko had been arrested in April last year. Yet the judges' strike is also contributing to overcrowding in the already cramped prisons, stretching detention facilities that have seen increasing numbers of escape attempts, a source at the Palace of Justice in the Beirut suburb of Baabda told AFP. "About 350 people used to be released from prison every month... that number has now been reduced to about 25," said the source, adding that most are released after "mediators intervene with the judge handling the case". About 13 inmates who completed their sentences two and a half months ago have been stuck in the Palace of Justice's cells because criminal courts have not met to sign off their release, he added. A judicial source who declined to be named said detainees were bearing the brunt of the strike's knock-on effects. "Judges have a right to a decent life," he said, but "detainees are also suffering from injustice, even those whose only crime was stealing a loaf of bread".

Bassil urges consensus on president, says Geagea refusing dialogue
Naharnet/December 09, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Friday visited Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkirki and called for an agreement on the country’s new president. “I continued with Patriarch al-Rahi the discussion of the issue of the presidency and the agreement on a candidate and I call on everyone to agree on a name,” Bassil said after the meeting. “We discussed carrying out a certain effort to exit the current situation and we are open, but if the others are not showing openness we cannot force them,” Bassil added. “We will keep trying to find a solution inside and outside the country and I won’t say more than this,” he said. Asked about the possibility of nominating someone from the FPM for the presidency, Bassil said: “These statements are for entertainment.” And asked if he would endorse a candidate proposed by al-Rahi, the FPM chief said: “The patriarch does not accept and we do not accept to put him in such a position that would hold him responsible for anything that might happen during the six-year presidential tenure.”Responding to another question on whether he would propose a Bkirki-sponsored Christian meeting and whether Lebanese Forces leader Samir Gegaea would accept attending the meeting, Bassil said: “Geagea is rejecting everything. He neither wants to come to Bkikri nor to engage in dialogue.”As for the controversy over the latest caretaker cabinet session, the FPM chief said “what happened in the governmental issue and the issue of decrees was a blow to the entity and the republic, not only to the presidency.”Asked whether the exchange of tirades between him and Hezbollah has come to an end following the latest statements, Bassil said: “This is up to them, I’m a peaceful man.”

Stephanie Saliba arrested over Riad Salameh's case and released after questioning session
Agence France Presse/Associated Press/December 09, 2022
Lebanese actress Stephanie Saliba, who has links to Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh, was arrested on Friday, a judicial official and the state-run National News Agency said. The development is the latest in the controversy surrounding Salameh, who is being investigated for corruption as an economic meltdown and financial collapse convulse the tiny nation. According to the National News Agency, a judge, acting on a request by Financial Prosecutor Judge Ali Ibrahim, ordered that Saliba be placed in custody after she showed up earlier in the day at the prosecutor’s office in Beirut for questioning. The report gave no reason for her arrest. A judicial official said investigative Judge Iman Abdallah questioned Saliba over "illicit enrichment and money laundering." Another judicial source meanwhile told Agence France Presse that Saliba "is currently detained pending investigation following orders from the financial prosecutor." Saliba arrived in Lebanon on Wednesday after taking part in a film festival in the Saudi city of Jeddah and was detained after previously failing to appear for questioning, the judicial source added. Salameh is being investigated in several European nations, including Switzerland, France, Luxembourg, and Liechtenstein, for potential money laundering and embezzlement. He has repeatedly denied corruption charges. Reports in Lebanese media say the governor gave Saliba expensive gifts. But a second judicial source with knowledge of the Salameh probe said there was no proof the central bank chief had directly transferred any money to Saliba. "The gifts she received from Salameh, whether it was a house or jewelry, do not amount to money laundering," the source added. Earlier this week, Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun, who has been investigating Salameh, issued a search warrant for Saliba's home as part of her investigation of the governor. Aoun refused to comment on the case when contacted by The Associated Press on Friday, saying only: "I did not issue the arrest warrant. I know nothing." Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had on Thursday denied a media report claiming that he had mediated with security agencies to prevent Saliba’s arrest at the Rafik Hariri International Airport. The daily had reported that Judge Aoun had circulated the search warrant to security agencies and that “political interferences at a high level, especially by caretaker PM Najib Mikati, prevented Saliba’s arrest upon her arrival… to Beirut’s airport.” Since 2019, Lebanon has been in the grips of the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history, rooted in decades of corruption and mismanagement by the country's political class. Many hold the 72-year-old Salameh responsible for the crisis, citing policies that drove up national debt and caused the Lebanese pound to lose 90% of its value against the dollar. The Central Bank governor, who has held the post for the past three decades, still enjoys the backing of top politicians.

Geagea urges govt. meeting over Hezbollah arms reports
Naharnet/December 09, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday called for an emergency cabinet meeting over media reports claiming that Hezbollah is using Beirut’s airport to bring weapons from Iran. “This is a delicate, dangerous and emergency matter that requires an urgent and necessary meeting by the caretaker cabinet in order to gather all the needed information and take all the necessary measures to preserve the security and stability of the Lebanese,” Geagea said in a tweet. “Some matters cannot withstand postponement, procrastination or a cover-up if they are true, that’s why the caretaker cabinet must act quickly, seriously and effectively,” the LF leader added. Israel’s Channel 12 has reported that Israel is tracking a new Iranian attempt to establish a weapons smuggling route via civilian airline flights to Beirut. The network said Tehran is using the airline Meraj, which recently started flying a direct route between the two nations’ capitals. The unsourced report said the new smuggling route is a result of Israel’s activities to thwart Iranian weapons transfers via Damascus. It also said that Israel has “warned that it could carry out strikes at Beirut’s international airport to thwart weapons deliveries as it has done in Damascus.”Quoting unnamed sources, the Saudi-owned al-Hadath television has reported that the Iranian airline, which has alleged ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, might transfer arms and sensitive equipment to Hezbollah, noting that the air company’s first flight had taken place on November 14. The Israeli Intelli Times blog identified the Meraj aircraft flying between Tehran and Beirut as EP-AJI. Flight tracking from Flightradar24 shows that the aircraft has made a number of flights to Beirut recently, “turning its transponder on over Baghdad and over Syria, but keeping it off in much of Iraq and Iran,” Israeli media reports said.

Geagea hits back at Bassil over dialogue, Bkirki laments response
Naharnet/December 09, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea on Friday snapped back at Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil over accusations related to the possibility of holding dialogue over the country’s next president. “Dialogue requires advocates of dialogue,” Geagea tweeted, responding to Bassil’s remarks. Bassil had earlier lamented that Geagea is “rejecting everything.”“He neither wants to come to Bkikri nor to engage in dialogue,” Bassil added, after talks with Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi in Bkirki. Commenting on Geagea’s remarks, Bkirki sources told MTV: “This is not the time to settle personal scores.”“The situation is delicate and requires both parties to rise above trivialities, especially by the heads of the biggest two Christian blocs,” the sources added.

Bassil turns to Maronite patriarch for support amid Lebanon stalemate
Najia Hussari/December 09, 2022
BEIRUT: Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros Al-Rahi hinted on Friday that some obstacles were hindering dialogue aimed at ending the political stalemate over the presidential vacuum. Al-Rahi’s remarks came as he received Lebanese MP Gebran Bassil, son-in-law of outgoing President Michel Aoun and head of the Free Patriotic Movement party. In light of the political dispute with Hezbollah, Bassil turned to Al-Rahi in an attempt to strengthen his position. Bassil also rejects the holding of Cabinet sessions by a caretaker government amid the presidential vacuum. “The decrees issued by the caretaker government constitute a harsh blow to the president’s position,” Bassil said following the meeting. “Over 10 decrees were issued harming this position. The mechanism for signing these decrees strikes down the partnership formula.”Bassil raised the issue of how to approach the presidential election with Al-Rahi in Bkerke hours before Aoun headed there in his non-presidential capacity. The FPM and other Christian forces are apprehensive about any political step that contradicts their positions because they believe that this could threaten their existence, as highlighted by the FPM, as well as the Lebanese Forces Party, repeatedly. The FPM disagreed with Hezbollah’s approaches regarding presidential candidates. The dispute recently emerged after Hezbollah showed its support for Suleiman Franjieh, whom it considers an ally. The FPM rejects Franjieh while it seeks to be the decision-maker in the presidential race since its bloc has the most Christian representation in parliament. Bassil said: “I completed with Al-Rahi what we started with the issue of the presidency, to find a figure who enjoys the support of two-thirds of the votes of parliament.”Bassil also underlined the need for Christian-Christian dialogue to reach an understanding on one or several candidates to run for the elections. “The FPM is open to dialogue, regardless of the positions of other forces, and if others are not open, we cannot force them,” he said. The call for Christian dialogue came the day after Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called the parliamentary blocs that represent all sects to hold talks, starting next Thursday, in a bid to bridge points of view and produce a consensual president. So far, Hezbollah and its allies are sticking to the blank vote, and the FPM no longer wants to do so. FPM’s votes went to several candidates in the latest voting session in an attempt to send a political message to Hezbollah. After meeting Bassil, Al-Rahi stressed that he had been calling for dialogue since 2009. He supported Bassil’s position that the Cabinet session should not have taken place, especially in the absence of many ministers.
“We have always been advocates of dialogue, and there is no solution except through dialogue between the parties, either through a bilateral dialogue between myself and each party, or through an inclusive dialogue, but some obstacles hinder this option.”LF head Samir Geagea indirectly commented on Bassil’s call in a tweet, saying: “Dialogue requires people suitable for dialogue.”Richard Kouyoumjian, LF’s head of foreign relations unit and former minister, questioned Bassil’s departure from the Hezbollah axis, despite the dispute between them. He said: “If his attack on the party and his defense of Christianity are sincere, then he ought to let Geagea be a presidential candidate.”Dialogue is unnecessary because our positions as LF are clear, said Kouyoumjian. “We have preserved as much as possible our reconciliation with the FPM but they are the ones who ruined it.” Caretaker Information Minister Ziad Makari, who is affiliated to Franjieh, said that Bassil knew that there was no consensus on him as a candidate, even by his allies. “His chances are zero, while Franjieh has more chances than Bassil,” he said.

Bassil: We will continue our efforts in Lebanon, abroad to end crisis
L'Orient Today / 09 December 2022
"I am not here to talk about the presidential election," Michel Aoun told reporters after a Friday meeting with the Maronite patriarch. BEIRUT — Following a Friday meeting with Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai in Bkerki, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) leader Gebran Bassil said he will continue the dialogue in Lebanon and abroad to find a solution for the country's political crisis. Bassil told reporters in Bkerke that he had "continued discussions with the patriarch on efforts to get out of the crisis," the MP said via a Friday tweet. "We are open-minded, but if others are not, we cannot force them [to be]," he added. "We will continue to seek a solution, both inside the country and abroad."
Bassil is expected to discuss Lebanon's presidential vacancy at greater length in a televised interview on Sunday evening. Later in the afternoon on Friday, Maronite Patriarch Bechara Rai also received former president Michel Aoun.
"I am not here to talk about the presidential election," Aoun told the press after meeting with Rai. "The national pact is not respected, the Constitution and certain rights are not respected either." Lebanon continues to face a double executive vacancy. Baabda Palace remains without a president since Aoun's departure on Oct. 30 while Prime Minister Najib Mikati's cabinet remains in caretaker status following failed attempts at cabinet formation. Bassil visited Paris and Doha in recent weeks to discuss the ongoing political crisis. Though he's said he considers himself a "natural" presidential candidate, he has never officially announced his candidacy. Since the beginning of the presidential election period, nine consecutive parliamentary sessions have failed to elect a new head of state. Hezbollah and its allies appear to be leaning toward Marada Movement leader Sleiman Frangieh, but the FPM has made it clear they have no intention to vote for him. Meanwhile, the candidacy of Zgharta MP Michel Moawad remains unanimous, especially among Forces of Change MPs.
'A blow to the Republic'
Mikati convened his caretaker cabinet on Monday, prompting a political tug-of-war between the caretaker PM and the Aounist camp, which accuses Mikati of wanting to seize the prerogatives of the president following the Aoun's departure. "What happened concerning the government issue and the decrees [issued] is a blow to the Lebanese entity and the Republic and not only to the Presidency of the Republic," Bassil said Friday. The cabinet meeting was also criticized by Patriarch Rai who said the meeting "should not have taken place, especially since several parties were absent."

EXPLAINER: Why can’t Lebanon elect a president?
Kareem Chehayeb/AP/ 09 December 2022
Lebanon has been without a president for over a month, its legislators unable to agree on a new head of state.
The impasse is holding up a range of initiatives, from putting into place structural reforms for an International Monetary Fund program to allowing the country’s state-owned television channel to broadcast the World Cup.
Here is a look at the latest episode of political paralysis in the crisis-hit country.
WHAT IS BEHIND THE DEADLOCK?
President Michel Aoun, an ally of Iran-backed Hezbollah, completed his six-year term on Oct. 30. Lebanon’s deeply-divided parliament has met nine times to elect a successor and failed every time, worsening political paralysis and stalling measures to alleviate a crippling economic crisis that has pulled three-quarters of the population into poverty.
The weekly sessions have become farcical with most legislators casting blank ballots. Others have written in mock candidates, including late former presidents Nelson Mandela of South Africa and Salvador Allende of Chile. Parliamentarians often leave the session midway through, resulting in no quorum.
The tiny country’s latest spell of paralysis also comes as it scrambles to rekindle strained ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, which once kept Lebanon flush with cash. Hezbollah’s dominance in Lebanese politics over the past decade and their backing of Yemen’s Houthi rebels against the Saudi-led coalition has angered Riyadh. In 2021, Saudi Arabia banned agricultural exports from Lebanon, nominally due to shipments being used to smuggle drugs, and later that year banned all Lebanese exports after a minister called Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen “absurd.”
Experts say the impasse is somewhat linked to ongoing Saudi Arabia and Iran talks in Baghdad, Iraq, aiming to restore diplomatic ties.
“Saudi Arabia is clearly linking Yemen and Lebanon dossiers in its negotiations with the Iranian side,” Carnegie Middle East Senior Fellow Mohanad Hage Ali said. “​​It’s trying to assert itself as a main stakeholder, and that renewed interest could relate to them seeing a potential benefit that could be translated in Yemen.”
Lebanon’s paralysis in parliament reflects that stalemate.
“In order to elect a president in Lebanon, you first need to find a consensual figure who is not vetoed by major Lebanese players, and who is vetted and okayed by regional powers,” said Karim Emile Bitar, Professor of International Relations at Beirut’s Saint Joseph University. “So far you have a tug-of-war between the Iranian-Syrian axis backing Hezbollah and on the other hand the alliance that is closer to the United States and Saudi Arabia.”
The country has frequently witnessed political paralysis in its short and troubled history, including a presidential vacuum of over two years before Aoun’s election in 2016. In 2008, armed clashes erupted for a week, before politicians gathered in Doha, Qatar to reach a settlement for a consensus presidential candidate.
Ibrahim Mneimeh, an independent reformist legislator, says the impasse has become the “status quo” and believes traditional parties are waiting for “foreign interference” for a settlement.
“Unfortunately this is happening over and over again.” Mneimeh said.
WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES?
Under Lebanon’s power-sharing system since its independence from France in 1943, a president has to come from the Maronite Catholic sect; the prime minister is a Sunni and the parliament speaker a Shiite.
While Hezbollah has yet to publicly name a candidate, public perception is that the group backs Sleiman Frangieh, a close ally of the party and of Syrian President Bashar Assad. The nominal candidate of the camp opposing Hezbollah and that often describes the group as a state-within-a-state is parliamentarian Michel Moawad. Both candidates come from established political families.
Moawad has received more votes than any other candidate, but has failed to garner a majority and is widely seen as too divisive a figure to reach the presidency. Meanwhile, Lebanese army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun has reportedly been discussed as a possible consensus candidate, though his name has not yet appeared on the ballot.
Parliamentarian Gebran Bassil, the son-in-law of President Aoun, the head of the Free Patriotic Movement party, and an ally of Hezbollah, has long been seen as Aoun’s successor of choice. Though he appears out of the running due to limited popular support and being targeted by U.S. sanctions, he and his party have not yet endorsed another candidate.
WHAT ARE THE REPERCUSSIONS?
With no developments to break the impasse, most experts say that political blocs will focus on trying to extract maximum political concessions, including divvying up the appointment of ministerial and senior government posts.
A Western diplomat who had met with most of Lebanon’s political blocs told The Associated Press that they are playing a “waiting game.”
Hage Ali likens the current deadlock to a game of poker. “You keep your cards hidden, you don’t blink or flinch, and wait until the side breaks down,” he explained. “Everyone is maneuvering at this point, either showing up with a blank ballot or choosing a candidate who isn’t viable.”
Meanwhile, tensions between hostile political groups in Lebanon continue to worsen.
Hezbollah deputy secretary general Naim Kassem said the group would not accept a candidate who opposes its stockpile of arms and supports what he alleged was “the American-Israeli project” in Lebanon.
In the opposing camp, Moawad has slammed Hezbollah and its allies’ for ruining ties with the Gulf and the wider international community, and at a discussion panel said would prefer paralysis over a new president affiliated to them.
“We’re seeing a repeat of the past where Hezbollah and allies gives Lebanon two choices: either accept their candidate or have a presidential vacuum,” said Charles Jabbour, a spokesman for the Lebanese Forces party, a Moawad ally.
There are also fears that a prolonged paralysis will further delay a possible IMF deal to recover its economy and renew investor confidence in the country.
The IMF has set conditions following a tentative agreement last April, including amending its banking secrecy law, restructuring its banks, and formalizing capital controls. Lebanon needs a president to ratify any laws that parliament passes.
In the meantime, Lebanon is set to have the second highest inflation rate worldwide in 2022.
“We are already on the verge of state collapse,” Bitar said. “If the paralysis lasts more than just a few weeks or months it could lead to a complete collapse.”

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 09-10/2022
Iran faces condemnation, more protests after execution
AFP/December 09, 2022
PARIS: Iran faced international condemnation Friday after carrying out its first known execution over protests that have shaken the regime for nearly three months, leading to calls for even more demonstrations. Protests have swept Iran since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian Kurd who died in mid-September after her arrest for an alleged breach of the country’s strict dress code for women. Mohsen Shekari was hanged Thursday after being convicted for blocking a Tehran street and wounding a paramilitary on September 25, after a legal process that rights groups denounced as a show trial.
The judiciary said the 23-year-old was arrested after striking a member of the Basij — a paramilitary force linked to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — with a machete, a wound that required 13 stitches. He was convicted last month of “moharebeh,” or “enmity against God” — a capital offense in the Islamic republic. The announcement sparked an international outcry and warnings from human rights groups that more hangings were imminent. Amnesty International said it was “horrified” by the execution, which followed Shekari’s condemnation in a “grossly unfair sham trial.”“His execution exposes the inhumanity of Iran’s so-called justice system” where many others face “the same fate,” it added. Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, director of Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights (IHR), urged a strong international reaction to deter the Islamic republic from carrying out more executions. “Mohsen Shekari was executed after a hasty and unfair trial without a lawyer,” he said. Shekari’s body was buried 24 hours after his execution in the presence of a few family members and security forces in Tehran’s Behesht-e Zahra cemetery, the 1500tasvir social media monitor reported.
His execution has triggered fresh protests and calls for more demonstrations. Overnight, protesters took to the street where Shekari was arrested, shouting, “They took away our Mohsen and brought back his body,” in a video shared by 1500tasvir. Elsewhere, chants of “Death to the dictator” and “Death to Sepah” were heard at a demonstration in Tehran’s Chitgar district, in reference to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. Hamed Esmaeilion, an Iranian-Canadian activist who has organized mass protests in Berlin, Paris and other cities, said more demonstrations would be held at the weekend. “Regardless of belief and ideology, let’s join these gatherings in protest against the brutal execution of #MohsenShekari,” he tweeted. 1500tasvir said Shekari’s execution happened with such haste that his family had still been waiting to hear the outcome of his appeal. It posted harrowing footage of what it said was the moment his family learnt the news outside their home in Tehran, with a woman doubled up in pain and grief, repeatedly screaming the name “Mohsen!“
Western governments also expressed anger.
Washington called Shekari’s execution “a grim escalation” and vowed to hold the Iranian regime to account for violence “against its own people.”Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed indignation at “this unacceptable repression” which, she said, would not quash the protesters’ demands.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had a similar message.“The threat of execution will not suffocate the will for freedom,” she tweeted, criticizing a “perfidious summary trial.”“The Iranian regime’s contempt for human life is boundless,” Baerbock added. Germany also summoned the Iranian ambassador, a diplomatic source said, without providing further details.UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly expressed outrage and urged the world not to ignore “the abhorrent violence committed by the Iranian regime against its own people.”The office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said it deplored Shekari’s hanging. According to rights group Amnesty International, Iran executes more people annually than any nation other than China. IHR, which says the security forces have killed at least 458 people in the protest crackdown, this week warned Iran had already executed more than 500 people in 2022, a sharp jump on last year’s figure. At least a dozen other people are currently at risk of execution after being sentenced to hang in connection with the protests, human rights groups warned.

Iranian women in anti-regime protests being targeted in breasts and genitalia, say medics
Arab News/December 09, 2022
LONDON: Women are being targeted at anti-regime protests by Iranian security forces focusing their shotgun fire at faces, breasts and genitals, according to interviews with medics across the country. Doctors and nurses, working in secret to avoid arrest and potential punishment, said they have noted the practice after noticing women arriving for treatment with different wounds. The medics said men more commonly had shotgun wounds to their legs, buttocks and backs, while shots to the eyes of women, men and children were also common. The Guardian reportedly spoke to 10 medical professionals, who warned that the severity of the injuries could leave hundreds of young Iranians with permanent damage. “I treated a woman in her early 20s, who was shot in her genitals by two pellets. Ten other pellets were lodged in her inner thigh,” one doctor told the newspaper. “These 10 pellets were easily removed, but those two were a challenge because they were wedged in between her urethra and vaginal opening.”Photographs seen by The Guardian showed bullet wounds all over bodies from so-called birdshot pellets, with X-rays showing evidence of tiny shot-balls in flesh. Another doctor from Karaj, a city near Tehran, said medics believed security forces were shooting at the genitals of women because they have “an inferiority complex and they want to get rid of their sexual complexes by hurting these young people.”Protests have been raging across Iran demanding the overthrow of the clerical rulers of the country following the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Amini. The Iranian woman was arrested for not properly covering her hair, and the doctor who treated her wounds told The Guardian they found the experience of treating Amini “harrowing,” adding: “She could have been my own daughter.”Meanwhile, the first death penalty on a demonstrator involved in the recent protests was carried out on Thursday by the Tehran regime.

Canada sanctions Iran, Russia and Myanmar over 'gross rights violations'
Agence France Presse/December 09/2022
Canada announced Friday sanctions against 67 individuals and nine entities in several countries, including members of Iran's judiciary and prison system for alleged "gross and systematic human rights violations." The sanctions also target Russia and Myanmar.
The penalties affected 22 senior members of Iran's judiciary, prison system and police forces, as well as senior aides to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and state-directed media came after the clerical regime's first execution of a protester, which has triggered global condemnation. The measures were timed to mark world days for anti-corruption and human rights. "Dignity, freedom and justice are pillars of Canada's foreign policy," Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said in a statement. "As the world witnesses the trampling of human rights of people in places such as Russia, Iran and Myanmar, we are reminded that we can only create change by standing up and defending the values that we hold dear."Sanctions were also leveled against 33 current and former officials and six entities in Russia for cracking down on its citizens for speaking out against Moscow's "illegal invasion of Ukraine and anti-democratic policies." Twelve individuals and three entities in Myanmar were also slapped with sanctions for enabling the junta's attacks on civilians and facilitating arms shipments to the regime.

Putin says Russia could adopt US preemptive strike concept
AP/December 09, 2022
MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Friday that Moscow could adopt what he described as a US concept of using preemptive military strikes, noting it has the weapons to do the job, in a blunt statement amid rising Russia-NATO tensions over Ukraine. “We are just thinking about it. They weren’t shy to openly talk about it during the past years,” Putin said, referring to the US policy, as he attended a summit in Kyrgyzstan of a Moscow-dominated economic alliance of ex-Soviet nations. For years, the Kremlin has expressed concern about US efforts to develop the so-called Conventional Prompt Global Strike capability that envisions hitting an adversary’s strategic targets with precision-guided conventional weapons anywhere in the world within one hour. “Speaking about a disarming strike, maybe it’s worth thinking about adopting the ideas developed by our US counterparts, their ideas of ensuring their security,” Putin said with a thin smile, noting that such a preemptive strike was intended to knock out command facilities. He claimed that Russia already has commissioned hypersonic weapons capable of carrying out such a strike, while the US hasn’t yet deployed them. He also claimed that Russia now has cruise missiles that surpass their US equivalents. While Putin appeared to refer to conventional precision-guided weapons when he talked about possibly mimicking the US strategy, he specifically noted that the US hasn’t ruled out the first use of nuclear weapons.
“If the potential adversary believes that it can use the theory of a preemptive strike and we don’t, it makes us think about the threats posed by such ideas in other countries’ defensive posture,” he said.
In Washington, advisers to President Joe Biden viewed Putin’s comments as “saber-rattling” and another veiled warning that he could deploy a tactical nuclear weapon, according to a US official who was not authorized to comment and spoke on the condition of the anonymity. The official noted that Russian military doctrine has long stated that Moscow reserves the right to first use of a nuclear weapon in response to large scale military aggression. John Erath, senior policy director for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, also viewed Putin’s statement as yet another attempt to raise the nuclear threat.
“He doesn’t quite say we’re going to launch nuclear weapons, but he wants the dialogue in the US and Europe to be, ‘The longer this war goes on, the greater the threat of nuclear weapons might be used,’” Erath said. Putin was asked Wednesday at a Kremlin conference whether Russia could commit to forswearing a first strike and responded that such an obligation might prevent Russia from tapping its nuclear arsenal even if it came under a nuclear attack. “If it doesn’t use it first under any circumstances, it means that it won’t be the second to use it either, because the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be sharply limited,” he responded. He elaborated on that answer Friday, saying Russia’s nuclear doctrine is based on the “launch on warning” concept, which envisions nuclear weapons’ use in the face of an imminent nuclear attack spotted by its early warning systems.
“When the early warning system receives a signal about a missile attack, we launch hundreds of missiles that are impossible to stop,” he said, smiling. “Enemy missile warheads would inevitably reach the territory of the Russian Federation. But nothing would be left of the enemy too, because it’s impossible to intercept hundreds of missiles. And this, of course, is a factor of deterrence.”Russia’s nuclear doctrine states the country can use nuclear weapons if it comes under a nuclear strike or if it faces an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence” of the Russian state. Since sending Russian troops into Ukraine in February, Putin has repeatedly said that Moscow was ready to use “all available means” to protect its territory and has rejected Western criticism of nuclear saber-rattling. “I understand that ever since nuclear weapons, the weapons of mass destruction have appeared, all people — the entirety of humankind — have been worried what will happen to the planet and all of us,” he said. At a ceremony Friday at US Strategic Command, which has responsibility for the nation’s nuclear weapons, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Putin’s repeated threats were irresponsible. “As the Kremlin continues its cruel and unprovoked war of choice against Ukraine, the whole world has seen Putin engage and deeply irresponsible nuclear saber-rattling So make no mistake, nuclear powers have a profound responsibility to avoid provocative behavior and to lower the risk of proliferation and to prevent escalation and nuclear war.”

Putin says other swaps with US 'possible' after Griner-Bout exchange
Agence France Presse/December 09/2022
Russia President Vladimir Putin said Friday that other prisoner swaps with Washington were possible after Moscow exchanged US basketball star Brittney Griner for convicted arms dealer Viktor Bout. "Are other (exchanges) possible? Yes, everything is possible. This is the result of negotiations and the search for compromises. In this case, compromises were found and we aren't refusing to continue this work in the future," Putin told reporters during a press conference in the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Israelis rapped for blocking Christian permits to visit Bethlehem
Hazem Balousha/Arab News/December 09, 2022
GAZA CITY: Christians in the Gaza Strip hope to celebrate Christmas each year and reunite with their families, but Israeli restrictions on movement are preventing thousands from taking part in the occasion. Israel has been accused of strictly limiting permits to pray in the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem to a limited number of worshipers. The Palestinian Civil Affairs Authority — the body responsible for communicating with Israeli officials at Erez crossing — said that Israel rejected more than 260 applications. An anonymous source told Arab News that the authority received approval for only about 640 people from the more than 900 applications submitted. A senior Israeli security official told journalists in a phone briefing that about 200 people were denied access to Israel after being denied security clearances. About 1,100 Christians live in the Gaza Strip, according to statistics issued by the Latin Monastery Church in Gaza. The number of Christians in Gaza has fallen in past years as a result of migration, owing to the dire economic situation, siege and successive Israeli offensives. Many have moved to the West Bank or emigrated abroad. “We feel very sorry that not all Christians were granted the necessary permits,” Kamel Ayad, director of public relations at the Greek Orthodox Church in Gaza, told Arab News. “It is our right as Christians to witness Christmas celebrations in the birthplace of Christ in Bethlehem as it is available to all Christians of the world to travel to,” said Ayad. Ayad added that the usual practice every year was to send a list of the names of Christians who wish to obtain a permit to travel during the Christmas period. In most cases the issuance of permits is random, meaning that only some members of Christian families can visit Bethlehem, said Ayad. The YMCA in Gaza lights up a large Christmas tree each year at the association square with participation of Christians and Muslims. Israel has imposed a strict blockade on the Gaza Strip since Hamas took control of the area by the armed force in mid-2007. Hani Farah, secretary-general of Gaza’s YMCA, said that Israel “practices all forms of repression and violations against the Palestinians, regardless of their religion or gender.”He added: “Just as Israeli bombs and missiles do not differentiate between the Palestinian and the Palestinian, the blockade and its repressive measures do not differentiate between a Muslim and a Christian. We are all trapped in Gaza and we share pain and suffering.”Sanaa, a Gaza Strip Christian, received approval for a permit, but her husband and her three children did not. She said: “What should I do with the permit alone without my family?” Sanaa told Arab News: “The spirit of Christmas is for all family members to gather in one place. I cannot attend the Christmas celebration in Bethlehem alone. This happens every year. One or two members of the family only get a permit.”Israel controls the entry and exit of Palestinians through the Erez crossing in the northern Gaza Strip, and grants permits only to humanitarian cases and several thousand daily workers, in addition to some aid workers in international organizations. Hamas condemned the Israeli ban of Christians from traveling to the West Bank during Christmas. “We condemn the Israeli occupation’s banning of Christian Gazans from accessing sacred places in Jerusalem and Bethlehem on religious holidays,” said a statement. “As the Israeli move restricts the Palestinian Christians’ access to holy places, we deem it a flagrant violation of the right to worship.”

Netanyahu gets 10 more days to form government
Agence France Presse/December 9, 2022
Israel's presidency on Friday granted prime minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu a 10-day extension to clinch a coalition deal, as post-election negotiations with his right-wing allies grind on. The November 1 election put Netanyahu in a position to form a stable government after an unprecedented period of political deadlock that forced five elections in less than four years. President Isaac Herzog on November 13 tapped veteran politician Netanyahu to form a government with a majority backing of extreme-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. The premier-designate appealed to the president Thursday to extend the coalition deadline, which had been set to expire at midnight (2200 GMT) Sunday, and give Netanyahu two more weeks to finalize coalition deals. Herzog told Netanyahu on Friday he has decided "to extend the timeframe given to you to complete the task of forming a government by 10 days", according to a letter released by the presidency. The president, who has already expressed reservations about some controversial members of the prospective coalition, said the new government "must work for the entire public in Israel." In negotiations so far, Netanyahu has already granted top posts to figures like Itamar Ben Gvir, infamous for his anti-Arab views, and the vocally anti-LGBTQ politician Avi Maoz. Netanyahu's Likud party has signed deals with three extreme-right factions, and must now finalize agreements with the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties by December 21. By law, the president can grant up to four additional days for negotiations after the extended deadline. "We are in the midst of negotiations and have made much progress, but judging by the pace of things, I will need all the extension days provided by law in order to form a government," Netanyahu said in his Thursday letter to Herzog. One of the hurdles that remain is the conviction of Shas leader Aryeh Deri for tax offences, which, according to Israel's attorney general, bars him from a ministerial position. Netanyahu and his allies may seek to pass legislation allowing Deri to serve in cabinet before firming up a coalition deal.

Arab leaders welcome China’s cooperation in development at Riyadh summit
Rashid Hassan/Arab News/December 10, 2022
RIYADH: Arab countries wish to enhance cooperation with China and look forward to a new phase of partnership, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman said at the inaugural Riyadh Arab-China Summit for Cooperation and Development on Friday. The event was one of two conferences held back to back on the last day of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia. “The Kingdom is working on enhancing cooperation (with China) to serve international stability,” the crown prince said in the presence of Arab leaders and Xi, who referred to the summit as a historic moment in relations between the Arab countries and China. Addressing the gathering of leaders, the crown prince, who chaired the summit on behalf of Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, said: “We welcome you to the first Arab-Chinese summit aimed at raising the level of joint cooperation among the member states of the Arab League and China, in a way that serves the common interests of our countries.”Xi said both China and Saudi Arabia must focus on economic development and strengthen cooperation based on mutual gains. (KSAMOFA)
He added: “We look with great interest at the steady growth and rapid technological progress achieved by China, which has made it one of the world’s leading economies. “The convening of this summit establishes a new phase for advancing the relationship between our countries and strengthening partnership in areas of common interest.”
For his part, Xi expressed hope that the summit would “lead to a brighter future,” adding that China sought “comprehensive cooperation” with Arab states to serve Chinese-Arab common interests.
He described the Riyadh summit as a development in the history of Chinese-Arab relations that promises a brighter future amid cooperation between China and Arab states. The Saudi crown prince said the Kingdom especially values the cooperation of, and partnerships with, the participants of the summit in the context of the Middle East Green Initiative. Together with the Saudi Green Initiative, the MGI was launched by the crown prince last year as part of efforts to reduce regional carbon emissions. “We are aware of the challenges posed by climate change and we believe in the need to find more sustainable and comprehensive solutions, while maintaining the levels of growth of the global economy, as we aim to reach carbon neutrality,” the crown prince said. “We appreciate the role of China in putting forward a number of valuable initiatives, the most important of which is the Friends of Global Development Initiative, which matches many aspects of Saudi Arabia’s priorities toward supporting sustainable development and promoting food security.”
Appreciating China’s position in supporting the two-state solution in dealing with the Palestinian issue and the Arab Peace Initiative, the crown prince said: “Saudi Arabia affirms the need for a just and permanent solution to the Palestine issue in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative, in a way that guarantees the Palestinian people’s right to establish an independent state on the pre-1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”In his speech, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi highlighted the significance of Arab-Chinese ties, saying coordination with China must be increased to resolve regional and international crises.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said he stands with China against the “malicious campaigns” it is facing. He also condemned what he called Israel’s attempts to alter the Arab identity of Jerusalem, and demanded that Israel be held accountable for its violations.
Moving on to Syria and Libya, the Saudi crown prince said that the Kingdom attached great importance on doubling efforts aimed at finding political solutions to the current crises, and to ensuring security, stability and prosperity in the two countries. Reaffirming the Kingdom’s support for efforts aimed at a comprehensive political solution in Yemen, he commended Beijing’s solidarity with Saudi initiatives in Yemen.
Speaking about the long history of Chinese-Arab relations, Xi said: “The friendship continues with its roots in the depths of history, where they met and got to know each other through the old Silk Road. Saudi crown prince said the Kingdom especially values the cooperation of, and partnerships with, the participants of the summit in the context of the Middle East Green Initiative. (AFP) “The friendship persisted through the struggles for national liberation, and economic globalization, and continues to uphold the right and just of a changing and volatile world. “The spirit of Chinese-Arab friendship of solidarity, synergy, equality, mutual benefit, inclusiveness and mutual benefit were developed through it.” Making a strong pitch for the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Xi said: “The Palestinian cause concerns peace and stability in the Middle East and puts the moral conscience of humanity at stake.
“The historical injustice suffered by the Palestinian people cannot continue. We look forward to the establishment of an independent state that does not accept rejection, and the international community must consolidate faith in a two-state solution.”
Xi reaffirmed that the Chinese side steadfastly supports the establishment of an independent and fully sovereign state of Palestine on 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in addition to supporting Palestine’s attainment of full membership at the UN.
He said China will continue to provide humanitarian aid to the Palestinian side with the aim of supporting it to carry out livelihood projects, in addition to increasing donations to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East. “China and the Arab states trust each other and have brotherly feelings,” Xi said. “We share unwavering support for issues related to the vital interests of the other side. We unite and progress together on the cause of achieving renaissance and solidarity in the spirit of one team against the COVID-19 pandemic.”
He said that during the last 10 years the volume of trade exchange had exceeded $300 billion; the balance of mutual direct investment amounted to $27 billion. More than 200 projects had been implemented within the framework of cooperation in building the Belt and Road Initiative, which has eventually benefited nearly 2 billion people. He added: “The Chinese side is keen to deepen mutual strategic confidence with the Arab side and exchange firm support for the efforts of the other side to preserve the country’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity. “The two sides adhere jointly to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, the application of true multilateralism, and the defense of right and the legitimate interests of developing countries.” Xi said both China and Saudi Arabia must focus on economic development and strengthen cooperation based on mutual gains. He pointed out that the Chinese side supports the Arab side in finding political solutions to thorny issues and in building a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security system in the Middle East. He highlighted China’s keenness to work with the Arab side to implement joint actions over the next three to five years, covering eight areas: development, food security, health, green development and innovation, energy security, dialogue among civilizations, youth rehabilitation, and security and stability.
He added that Islamophobia and extremism must be confronted.

As Xi visits, resource-rich Gulf seeks stronger China ties
Agence France Presse/December 09/2022
Arab Gulf countries, strategic partners of Washington, are bolstering ties with China as part of an eastward turn that involves diversifying their fossil fuel-heavy economies. As a Gulf-China summit takes place in Riyadh on Friday, AFP examines key areas of economic cooperation between the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council and the world's second-largest economy.
Energy
By 2020, China had risen to become a primary trading partner with the GCC states, especially in the field of energy. China imports hydrocarbons from Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which alone accounted for 17 percent of the Asian giant's oil imports in 2021. Qatar supplies China with liquefied natural gas -- trade that has been bolstered by the global energy crisis resulting from the war in Ukraine. In November, Qatar announced a 27-year natural gas deal with China worth more than $60 billion, saying it was the longest such agreement to date.
Free-trade talks
In July 2004, China and the GCC announced the launch of negotiations for a free-trade agreement. Nearly two decades later, and after nine rounds of talks, the parties have yet to clinch a final deal, despite pledging in January to "accelerate the process". Friday's Gulf-China summit is widely seen as an opportunity to jumpstart the negotiations. Chinese trade relations are particularly strong with the UAE, which is the largest Middle East market for Chinese products and is a major export hub for Chinese goods, especially to the rest of the Arab world.
Investment
Between 2005 and 2022, Chinese companies invested more than $107 billion in GCC states, according to data collected by the American Enterprise Institute. The largest share of Chinese investment went to Saudi Arabia, the Arab world's biggest economy. Investments in the kingdom were valued at around $49.6 billion over the past 17 years, according to the think tank. For its part, Saudi Arabia was the 12th-largest investor in China in 2019, with nearly $2.3 billion, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. Gulf sovereign wealth funds are also increasingly looking to Asia. In 2015, China and the UAE agreed to create a $10 billion joint investment fund. The UAE-China Joint Investment Cooperation Fund is managed by the Abu Dhabi state fund Mubadala and two Chinese state institutions.
Weapons and technology
As Washington watches closely, the GCC has also turned to China for technology and arms as part of the region's efforts to diversify its suppliers. In February, the UAE said it would purchase 12 attack planes from China, a few weeks after threatening to cancel its purchase of F-35s from the United States. In March, Saudi Arabia and China signed an agreement to jointly develop military drones in the oil-rich kingdom, according to Saudi-owned media. Eager to curb their dependence on hydrocarbon sales, GCC rulers are also turning to China for technological collaboration. Since 2019, most GCC telecom firms have signed 5G contracts with Huawei. The firm is controversial in Europe and the United States over accusations that it is close to China's military and that its technology could be used for espionage, charges Beijing has denied.

Saudi Arabia and China to prioritize relations
Arab News/December 09, 2022
Both countries to continue to firmly support each other’s core interests
Joint efforts to defend the principle of non-interference in their internal affairs
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia and China vowed to prioritize relations as part of their foreign policy and set a model of cooperation and solidarity for developing countries, according to a joint statement released by both parties after the Saudi-Chinese summit.
The two sides reaffirmed they will continue to firmly support each other’s core interests, support each other in maintaining their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and exert joint efforts to defend the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of states, rules of international law and basic principles of international relations. The Saudi side reaffirmed its adherence to the one-China principle, state news agency SPA reported.
Moreover, the Chinese side expressed support for the Kingdom in maintaining its security and stability and affirmed its opposition to any actions that would interfere in the internal affairs of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and rejects any attacks targeting civilians, civilian facilities, territories and Saudi interests.
The two sides expressed their satisfaction with the progressive stages of bilateral relations during the past three decades.
Moreover, they stressed the importance of continuing joint action in all fields, deepening relations within the framework of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, and reaching new and promising horizons.
The two sides praised the positive and fruitful outcomes of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to the Kingdom in January 2016, as well as King Salman’s visit to China in March 2017, in addition to the visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in February 2019 to China. Visits that contributed to expanding the scope of cooperation between the two countries in various fields.
Regarding bilateral relations, the two sides stressed the importance of continuing to expand Saudi-Chinese relations in their international framework, and setting an example of cooperation, solidarity, and mutual gain for developing countries. The Saudi side congratulated China on the success of convening the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. In addition, the Chinese side congratulated the Kingdom for the great achievements made in the field of national development within the framework of Vision 2030.
The two sides stressed the importance of enhancing cooperation through high-level Saudi-Chinese Joint Committee to achieve common goals, enhancing cooperation between the two countries in all fields, and intensifying communication between the government and private sectors in the two countries to discuss economic, trade and investment opportunities and translate them into tangible partnerships, and enhancing cooperation in areas that aim to elevate the economic and developmental relationship between the two countries to broader horizons.
Regarding energy field, both sides affirmed that their enhancement of cooperation in this field is considered an important strategic partnership.
The two sides commended their oil trade volume and the great foundations of the cooperation due to the Kingdom’s ample oil resources and China’s broad markets.
They also indicated that the development and consolidation of cooperation in the field of oil is in conformity with the common interests of both sides. In addition, they stressed on the importance of stability in the world oil markets.
China welcomed the Kingdom’s role as a supporter of the balance and stability in the world oil markets, and as reliable major exporter of crude oil to China. The two sides agreed to explore the common investment opportunities in petrochemicals sector, develop promising projects in petrochemical conversion techniques, and enhance joint cooperation in a number of fields and projects including electricity, PV energy, wind energy, and other sources of renewable energy.
The two sides also agreed to develop related projects, innovative uses of hydrocarbon resources, energy efficiency, localization of energy sector components and its supply chains, in addition to cooperate in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and the development of modern technologies such as artificial intelligence, as well as innovation in energy sector.
The two sides stressed the importance of deepening joint cooperation in regard to “Belt and Road Initiative”, welcoming the related Saudi companies involvement in various energy and investment partnerships within the framework of “Belt and Road Initiative”, enhancing the Kingdom’s location as a regional center for Chinese companies in producing and exporting the products of energy sector, as well as the joint investment in energy projects in the countries of the region and energy consuming countries in Europe and Africa. All of this will contribute in developing Saudi local content, and achieve self-sufficiency for China in the field of petrochemicals through its related investment in the Kingdom.
Regarding climate change, the Chinese side welcomed the Kingdom’s launching of “Saudi Green” and “Middle East Green” initiatives, and expressed its support for all the efforts exerted by the Kingdom in the field of climate change through the application of circular carbon economy approach launched by the Kingdom and approved by the G20 leaders. Both sides emphasized the importance of the principles of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement, as well as the importance of implementing climate conventions through focusing on emissions rather than sources. The two sides agreed to continue their coordination on energy policies through the use of circular carbon economy as a tool to manage emissions and achieve climate targets.
They also agreed to urge developed countries to take their historic responsibilities seriously, through the fulfillment of their obligations by greatly reducing emissions before the target date, and to tangibly help developing countries through financial, technical, capacity building support.
The two sides commended the growth of intra-trade and investment between their two countries, which embodies the depth and sustainability of their economic relations.
They also affirmed their willingness to increase the volume of non-oil trade, facilitate the Kingdom’s non-oil exports to China, as well as to increase the joint quality investment between the two countries.
The two sides agreed to enhance the work to benefit from the available trade and investment opportunities, intensify the capacity of aircraft carriers, motivate private sectors investment partnerships in both countries, consolidate efforts to create attractive, supportive, and incentive investment environment within the framework of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and “Belt and Road Initiative”, through deepening cooperation in a number of fields including automotive industry, supply chains, logistics, water desalination, infrastructure, manufacturing, mining, and the financial sector.
The Saudi side expressed its aspiration to attract Chinese expertise to participate in the future mega-projects in the Kingdom, in addition to its keenness to enable Saudi investments in the China and overcome the difficulties such investment may face.
The Saudi side also stressed the importance of attracting international Chinese companies to open regional headquarters in the Kingdom, and appreciated the interest of a number of companies in that regard as they are obtaining licenses to establish their regional headquarters in the Kingdom, to ultimately benefit from the exceptional Chinese experiences and capabilities for the benefit of the economies of the two countries.
The two sides expressed their satisfaction with signing “harmonization plan” between the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and the “Belt and Road Initiative”. The two sides agreed on the importance of accelerating the pace of harmonization between their projects in the two countries, employing integrated advantages, and deepening practical cooperation between the two sides so as to obtain mutual benefits and common development.
The two sides also welcomed the signing of 12 agreements and government memoranda of understanding for cooperation in the fields of hydrogen energy, the judiciary field, Chinese language education, housing, direct investment, radio and television, digital economy, economic development, standardization, news coverage, tax administration, and anti-corruption. In addition to the signing of 9 agreements and memoranda of understanding between the government and private sectors, and the signing of 25 agreements and memoranda of understanding between companies in the two countries.
The Chinese side invited the Saudi side to be the guest of honor for the sixth session of the Arab-Chinese Exhibition for the year 2023.
The Chinese side also expressed its keenness to deepen investment cooperation with the Saudi side in digital economy and green development, enhance cooperation in e-commerce, and explore means of joint economic and trade cooperation with Africa.
The Saudi side also welcomed Chinese companies’ investments in the Kingdom, through the mega investment opportunities provided by Vision 2030 in various sectors. On the other hand, the Chinese side welcomed the enhancement of investments of sovereign wealth funds and Saudi industrial capitals in China.
The two sides agreed to encourage building partnerships between investment funds in the two countries.
Regarding financial field, the two sides stressed the importance of joint cooperation to support the success of the “Common Framework for Debt Treatment beyond the scope of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative”, which was endorsed by the G20 leaders at the G20 summit headed by the Kingdom.
The two sides also confirmed the need to coordinate relevant positions in international forums such as G20, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and Asian Bank, in order to invest in infrastructure and other areas, in a manner that enhances efforts aimed at increasing the effectiveness and governance of these groups and institutions.
The two sides also confirmed the importance of enhancing cooperation in the field of tax policies, thus contributing to enhancing financial, trade and investment cooperation between the two countries.
Regarding water and agriculture field, the Saudi side welcomed the establishment of direct partnership between Chinese private sector and Saudi private sector concerning the investment opportunities available in the Kingdom in the fields of desalination plants, drinking water, water transport lines, sewage treatment plants, dams, and the organization of commercial activities between representatives of the private sector in both countries to discuss investment possibilities in the agricultural sector as well as agricultural and food industries, and the development of agricultural investment projects.
Regarding communications and information technology field, the two sides stressed the need to strengthen partnership in areas related to communications, digital economy, innovation and space to achieve a better digital future for the future generations in both countries.
Regarding transportation and logistics field , the two sides stressed the importance of enhancing cooperation and joint action on developing the air and sea transport sectors, modern transport modes and railways, and expediting the completion of studies on the Saudi land bridge project.
The two sides also stressed the importance of strengthening and developing cooperation in the industrial and mining sectors, in a way that serves their common interests.
Regarding the defense and security field, the two sides affirmed their determination to develop cooperation and coordination in defense fields, enhance and raise the level of exchange of information and expertise in the field of combating organized crime, including terrorist crimes, prevent violence and extremism, in addition to enhance cooperation and coordination of efforts and exchange of expertise in the areas of early- warning risk intelligence, security risks assessment and combating cybercrimes, in a way that serves and achieves the common interests of the two countries.
The two sides reaffirmed the rejection and denunciation of terrorism and extremism in all its forms, the refusal to link terrorism to any particular culture, race or religion, the refusal to practice double standards in combating terrorism, and the importance of spreading moderation and tolerance.
The two sides also praised the level of security cooperation between the two friendly countries in the field of combating terrorism and its financing.
The two sides agreed to enhance joint international cooperation to combat cross-border corruption crimes in all its forms, ensure the achievement of common goals related to consolidating the principles of transparency, integrity, communication and effective cooperation between the agencies concerned with combating corruption in the two countries, and benefit from the principles endorsed by the G20 regarding combating corruption and pursuing fugitive criminals and recovering proceeds of crime, and the Riyadh Global Initiative for Anti-Corruption Law Enforcement Authorities in the field of investigations of corruption cases, prosecution of perpetrators, and recovery of proceeds of crime.
Regarding health field, the two sides stressed the importance of strengthening cooperation between them in health fields, and raising the level of coordination between them to combat current and future health threats and pandemics.
Regarding cultural field, the two sides discussed ways to enhance cooperation between them within the framework of the historical and cultural relations that unite the two friendly countries, and expressed support and appreciation for many cultural initiatives that express the strength of Saudi-Chinese relations, they also welcomed the launch of the first edition of the Prince Mohammed bin Salman Award for Cultural Cooperation between the two countries.
The two sides also stressed the importance of jointly organizing Chinese-Saudi Digital Cultural Year, implementing the memoranda of understanding signed in a number of cultural fields. In addition, the two sides stressed the importance of cooperation in the field of tourism and promotional activities between the two countries, exploring tourism potentials that both countries have, and promoting joint action in sustainable tourism sectors for the benefit of the tourism sector and its development.
The Chinese side announced endorsing the Kingdom as an outbound tourist destination for the Chinese tourist groups.
Regarding sports field, the two sides stressed the importance of strengthening cooperation and partnership in sports programs and activities between the two countries.
Regarding education field, the two sides welcomed the raising the level of scientific and educational cooperation between the two countries. They commended the progress achieved in cooperation between them in this field, agreed on continuing to encourage direct communication between universities and academic, scientific and research institutions in the two countries, to promote cooperation in the areas of digital education and teaching Arabic and Chinese languages in schools, universities and educational institutions in the two countries.
The two sides stressed the importance of cooperation and enhancing the level of partnerships and sharing experiences and information in various areas of work and human resources in order to achieve their mutual interests.
Regarding media field, the two sides agreed to strengthen the existing media cooperation between the two countries, discuss opportunities for its development in the areas of radio, television, news agencies and the press, and exchange experiences and media visits in order to promote the development of joint media action.
The Chinese side commended the efforts exerted by the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in serving Chinese pilgrims, and its cooperation in organizing Chinese Hajj campaigns and facilitating the performance of Hajj and Umrah for Chinese pilgrims.
Regarding regional and international matters, the two sides welcomed the holding of the first China-GCC summit, and the first Arab-Chinese summit in the Kingdom in the city of Riyadh on Friday Dec. 9, and expressed their aspiration for the two summits to achieve their desired goals to serve the Gulf and Arab-Chinese relations.
They also stressed that holding China-GCC summit and Arab-Chinese summit is of particular importance in light of the current international situations , and affirmed their support for “China-Arab community with a shared future in the new era” initiative.
Furthermore, they commended the important role of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in promoting collective cooperation between China and Arab countries, and expressed their willingness to participate in building and developing the Forum. They also stressed the importance of joint action to strengthen strategic partnership relations between the GCC States and China, conclude a free trade agreement between the GCC and China, and work towards holding GCC-China Meeting of Ministers of Economy and Trade 6 + 1 between GCC and China.
The two sides reaffirmed their determination to continue coordinating and intensifying efforts to maintain international peace and security, continue their coordination in the relevant organizations, call for constructive dialogue in order to achieve the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the fundamental principles of international relations.
They stressed that the situations of the region are related to security and stability in the world , and that working towards peace and prosperity in the region is in conformity with the common interest of international community. They also agreed on the importance of finding peaceful and political solutions to the region’s urgent issues through dialogue and consultation based on respect for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of the States of the region.
The Chinese side commended the Kingdom’s positive contributions and outstanding support for the promotion of regional and international peace and stability. The Saudi side commended the efforts and initiatives of the People’s Republic of China to achieve security and stability in the Middle East. The two sides also agreed on the importance of strengthening their cooperation and partnership in order to support stability and development in the African continent.
The Saudi side expressed its support for Global Development Initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping and looked forward to participating in cooperation within the framework of the Initiative, thereby contributing to accelerating the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The Saudi side also expressed its appreciation for the Global Security Initiative launched by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The two sides also discussed the most prominent global economic challenges, and the role of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the People’s Republic of China in supporting international efforts to address these challenges. They also stressed the importance of joint action to advance comprehensive global development for the benefit of all, and the importance of stabilizing global energy markets and food supply of wheat and grains to all countries without any disruption, as well as maintaining oversupply and stable prices.
Regarding political issues:
The two sides affirmed their full support for efforts to reach a political solution to the Yemeni crisis.
The Chinese side commended the Kingdom’s initiative to end the war in Yemen and its numerous efforts and initiatives aimed at encouraging dialogue between Yemeni parties.
The two sides also stressed the importance of supporting the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council to enable it to perform its functions and reach a political solution to the Yemeni crisis in accordance with the Gulf Initiative and its executive mechanisms, the outcomes of the Yemeni National Dialogue, and Security Council Resolution No. 2216 (2015). They also stressed the importance of the Houthis’ commitment to a truce, cooperation with the UN Special Envoy for Yemen, and serious engagement with initiatives and efforts for peace in order to reach a permanent and comprehensive political solution to the Yemeni crisis. The Chinese side valued the Kingdom’s humanitarian relief and development aid to the Yemeni people through King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre together with the Saudi Program for the Development and Reconstruction of Yemen.
Regarding Iran:
The two sides agreed on the need to strengthen joint cooperation to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.
The two sides also called on Iran to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency, maintain the non-proliferation regime, and emphasize respect for the principles of good-neighborliness and non-interference in internal affairs of states.
Regarding Palestine:
The two sides discussed the developments in the Palestinian cause, and stressed the need to intensify efforts to achieve a comprehensive and just settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and find a real horizon for resuming serious and effective negotiations in order to achieve peace in accordance with the principle of two-state solution, the relevant international legitimacy resolutions, and Arab Peace Initiative, in a way that guarantees the rights of Palestinian people to establish their independent state on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Regarding Syria:
The two sides stressed the need to intensify efforts to reach a political solution to the Syrian crisis that preserves Syria’s unity and territorial integrity, restores its security and ends terrorism, and creates the necessary conditions for the voluntary return of refugees.
They also affirmed their continued support for the efforts of the United Nations and its Special Envoy for Syria.
Regarding Lebanon:
The two sides affirmed their concern for the security, stability, and unity of the Lebanese territories. They also stressed the importance of carrying out the necessary reforms, dialogue and consultation to ensure that Lebanon overcomes its crisis, in order to avoid being the starting point for any terrorist acts, becoming incubators for terrorist organizations and groups that destabilize the security and stability of the region, or to be a source or crossing point for drug smuggling.
Regarding Iraq:
The two sides affirmed their continuation in providing support to the Republic of Iraq, and welcomed the formation of the new Iraqi government, wishing for it success in achieving the aspirations of the Iraqi people for security, stability, and development.
Regarding Afghanistan:
The two sides stressed the importance of supporting efforts that would achieve security and stability in Afghanistan, ensuring that Afghanistan does not become a haven for terrorist and extremist groups.
They also stressed the importance of strengthening humanitarian efforts exerted by the international community to stop the ongoing deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, and to deliver humanitarian aid to the Afghan people.
Regarding Ukraine:
The two sides stressed the importance of resolving the conflict by peaceful means, and exerting all possible efforts to reduce escalation in a way that contributes to restoring security and stability, and limits the negative consequences of this crisis.
The Chinese side pointed out its six- point initiative regarding the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, its provision of humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and its call for preventing a large-scale humanitarian crisis.
The Chinese side expressed its appreciation for the humanitarian and political efforts made by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in providing humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the release of a number of prisoners of war of different nationalities.
The Chinese side also praised the additional humanitarian aid package which the Kingdom recently provided to Ukraine in the amount of 400 million US dollars, which will contribute in alleviating the suffering of the Ukrainian people.
In conclusion, the Chinese President expressed his gratitude and appreciation for King Salman and the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and their warm reception and hospitality accorded to President Xi and the accompanying delegation.
President Xi invited the King Salman to visit China at a mutually convenient time, and the Saudi king accepted the invitation. King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wished the Chinese president and the people of China best wishes, good health, and happiness in addition to further progress and advancement.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 09-10/2022
Democracy at Work: Supporting Israel Regardless of its Government
Alan M. Dershowitz/Gatestone Institute/December 09/2022
Israeli governments come and go based on the results of elections; Israel has had five of them in the last four years. But one's support for Israel should not vary with whether one agrees or disagrees with the outcome of a particular election, any more than one's support for the United States depends on whether Democrats or Republican are in control at a given time. One can be a patriotic American who stands and salutes the star-spangled banner even when one disagrees with policies of the government. One can work hard to change such policies. Sometimes they change. Sometimes they do not. That is democracy at work. One can also be a fervent Zionist, which simply means that one strongly believes in the concept of a secure and democratic nation-state for the Jewish people. That is all Zionism means. It does not entail support for particular Israeli policies....
As then-President Bill Clinton once complained: "Israel is a democracy, damn it!" His point was that he could simply call the leader of a non-democratic ally and tell him what do. He could not do that to Israel, where the citizens decide what their government should do.
Democracy does not assure good outcomes. It only assures a fair process.
Those who understandably disagree with the outcome of the recent Israeli election should recognize that it is the product of factors that generally affect democratic elections: changing demography, economic considerations, external threats and numerous other variables.
So please, as Israel approaches its 75th birthday, look at the big picture: no country has contributed more to the world in its first three quarters of a century than has Israel; no country faced with dangers comparable to those faced by Israel has had a better record of human rights, compliance with the rule of law and concern for enemy civilians than Israel.
Governments and policies change. Support for the only democracy in the Middle East should remain constant.
Israel's prime minister-designate is brilliant, hardworking and dedicated to the survival of the nation-state of the Jewish people. One may not like all the ministers in his likely new government. Neither do other longtime supporters of Israel. Some have questioned whether they can continue to support Israel in the face of certain policies proposed by some potential ministers. It is important to continue to support Israel even if one disagrees with some policies of a particular government.
Israeli governments come and go based on the results of elections; Israel has had five of them in the last four years. But one's support for Israel should not vary with whether one agrees or disagrees with the outcome of a particular election, any more than one's support for the United States depends on whether Democrats or Republican are in control at a given time. One can be a patriotic American who stands and salutes the star-spangled banner even when one disagrees with policies of the government. One can work hard to change such policies. Sometimes they change. Sometimes they do not. That is democracy at work. One can also be a fervent Zionist, which simply means that one strongly believes in the concept of a secure and democratic nation-state for the Jewish people. That is all Zionism means. It does not entail support for particular Israeli policies, including the occupation of Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) or a two-state solution to the Palestinian issue. In a democracy, the citizens decide such issues, and those of us who are not citizens have the right to disagree with their decisions.
One can continue to support the security of Israel against external enemies such as Iran, as well as terrorists such as Hamas and Hezbollah. One can continue to invest in its economy. And one can continue to defend it on campuses against false accusations.
At the same time, one can protest ill-conceived efforts to weaken the Supreme Court and to strengthen the powers of the religious establishment. One can support gay rights and equality for Arab and other non-Jewish citizens. But one can do it in the spirit of constructive criticism, just as one would for one's own country.
One does not need to abandon Israel as a result of a single election. Nor does one need to threaten to do so if the Israeli government adopts policies with which one strongly disagrees. As then-President Bill Clinton once complained: "Israel is a democracy, damn it!" His point was that he could simply call the leader of a non-democratic ally and tell him what do. He could not do that to Israel, where the citizens decide what their government should do.
We must respect Israeli democracy, even when we disagree with its outcome, just as those who have lost presidential elections in our country should respect the process and accept the result. Democracy does not assure good outcomes. It only assures a fair process. As Churchill quipped, "democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time...."
Those who understandably disagree with the outcome of the recent Israeli election should recognize that it is the product of factors that generally affect democratic elections: changing demography, economic considerations, external threats and numerous other variables. The results of the future elections may be very different. So please, as Israel approaches its 75th birthday, look at the big picture: no country has contributed more to the world in its first three quarters of a century than has Israel; no country faced with dangers comparable to those faced by Israel has had a better record of human rights, compliance with the rule of law and concern for enemy civilians than Israel. Governments and policies change. Support for the only democracy in the Middle East should remain constant.
**Alan M. Dershowitz is the Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus at Harvard Law School, and the author most recently of The Price of Principle: Why Integrity Is Worth The Consequences. He is the Jack Roth Charitable Foundation Fellow at Gatestone Institute, and is also the host of "The Dershow" podcast.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Is Armenia, the world’s first Christian nation, in danger of disappearing?
Raymond Ibrahim/December 09/2022
Written by Nicole Jansezian, the following, edited article first appeared in AllArabNews:
Armenia recently marked its 31st Independence Day (Sept. 21), celebrating its freedom after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
But, these days, many Armenians are more concerned with their existence than with their independence.
A diminishing Armenia succumbed to vast territorial gains by Turkey in 1920 and more recently to Azerbaijan in 2020 after a brief but devastating war.
Armenia is home to just less than 3 million residents who live in a hostile neighborhood in the South Caucus. The predominantly Christian country borders Georgia to the north and on its other borders are Muslim nations, including its arch enemies Turkey and Azerbaijan, and its ironic ally, Iran.
It is a complex region in which Iran and Russia are Armenia’s allies – yet both of them have their own complicated relations with Turkey.
One of Armenia’s deep concerns now, Djernazian said, is Azerbaijan moving into Armenia’s Syunik region – a sliver of land disconnecting Azerbaijan from its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. Doing so could cut off Armenia geographically from Iran.
But that is not the only territory at stake, apparently. In 2018, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said the Armenian capital, “Yerevan is our historical land, and we, Azerbaijanis, should return to those lands.”
“This is our political and strategic goal, and we should gradually reach it,” he added in a speech in which he also claimed the Zangezur region, in southern Armenia and the region surrounding Lake Sevan.
TERRITORIAL DISPUTE OR JIHAD?
Is the ongoing Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict a historic territorial dispute or, as some Christian advocates say, religious?
“On the surface, and as widely reported by media, this is yet another territorial dispute, this time between (Christian) Armenia and (Muslim) Azerbaijan. Beneath the surface, however, lurks that old Muslim-Christian divide, typified by jihadist hate for ‘infidels,’” writes Raymond Ibrahim, an author who frequently speaks about persecution of Christians by Muslims.
Ibrahim, who has been following the conflict, contends that the evidence of Azeri soldiers’ alleged atrocities, which have gone largely unreported, point to Islam. Take for instance last week’s rape and mutilation of a female Armenian soldier – which appears to have only been reported in Armenian media outlets and could not be independently confirmed by ALL ARAB NEWS.
“They committed atrocities in our combat positions against our servicemen, including women soldiers,” said Army Chief of Staff Edward Asryan in a briefing to diplomats. “I cannot find words to describe how they dismembered a female soldier, cut off her legs, fingers and stripped her naked. This is unheard of cruelty.”
Ibrahim writes that the “severing of this woman’s fingers is a telltale sign that jihadist motives were behind the mutilation.”
THE ARMENIAN CONNECTION TO MODERN AND ANCIENT ISRAEL
The Armenians as a people group date back to the 7th century B.C. In 301 A.D., King Tiridates III declared Christianity the national religion and thus it has remained through the centuries. It was this decision that sparked pilgrimages to Jerusalem to see the sites where Jesus was crucified, buried and rose again. And this is what led to the modern-day Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem’s Old City.
The Museum of the Bible in Washington, D.C. plans to open an exhibit focusing on Armenia’s unique connection to Christianity and the Bible, translated in Armenian as “breath of God.”
“In 2023, Museum of the Bible will open a groundbreaking exhibition focusing on the significance of the Armenian Church and people to the history of the Bible. The Bible, or the ‘breath of God’ in Armenian, is deeply ingrained in Armenia’s culture. In this exhibition, guests will explore the Bible’s history in Armenia and see that it is ancient, exceptional, and resilient,” the Museum says on its website.
For Djernazian – the grandson of genocide survivors – and other Armenians in Jerusalem, the connection to their homeland remains deep.
“The Armenian Quarter in Jerusalem is like a little Armenia,” he continued. “We all care for its future and the continuation of the Armenian presence here and Armenia as well. Both places complete each other, both places are home to all Armenians and, as much as we care about our home here, we care also for our homeland, Armenia.”

من موقع مؤسسة الدفاع عن الديمقراطيات، دراسة مهمة للغاية باللغة الإنكليزية للباحث جوناثان شانزرمهمة تتناول دور الأردن المشكوك به والملتبس بما يتعلق بالإتفاقات الإبراهيمية بين إسرائيل والعرب
Neither Here Nor There... Jordan and the Abraham Accords
Jonathan Schanzer/FDD/December 09/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113936/jonathan-schanzer-fdd-neither-here-nor-there-jordan-and-the-abraham-accords-%d9%85%d9%86-%d9%85%d9%88%d9%82%d8%b9-%d9%85%d8%a4%d8%b3%d8%b3%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af%d9%81%d8%a7%d8%b9-%d8%b9%d9%86/
The Middle East witnessed remarkable change in August and September 2020 with the Abraham Accords. It began with decisions taken by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain to enter into peace agreements with Israel. Sudan and Morocco followed soon thereafter.1 Seemingly overnight, a rare sense of optimism washed over the Middle East.
These agreements were certainly not the first of their kind. In 1979, Egypt made peace with Israel. In 1993, the Palestinians entered the Oslo diplomatic process with Israel, initiating more than a decade of attempted peacemaking. In 1994, Jordan made its own peace with Israel.
For the two decades that followed, observers referred to Jordanian-Israeli ties as the “warm peace,” particularly compared to the frosty ties Israel maintained with Egypt and the collapse of Oslo. However, since 2020, if not before then, the Jordanian peace has turned decidedly cold. It is especially frigid now compared to the rapidly growing ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco. Even relations between Israel and Egypt have improved. With rhetoric that increasingly echoes the sentiments of rejectionist Arab nationalists or even Islamists, Jordan’s current policies appear to run counter to the current trendlines of the Middle East.
After the recent electoral victory of Israeli politician Benjamin Netanyahu, along with other right-wing Israeli politicians, Jordan issued an unprovoked and blistering statement warning Israel not to alter the status quo on the Temple Mount, invoking its role as custodian of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. The statement signaled the likely renewal of acrimonious ties between the king and Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.2
All of this should come as unwelcome news to the United States and to America’s Middle East allies. In anticipation of intensifying great power competition with China, and perhaps to a lesser extent Russia, it is crucial for Washington to project unity among allies in the Middle East. No less important for the Middle East is the prospect of stability, prosperity, and positive change, which will require Jordan as a willing partner. This is especially the case amidst the continued havoc that the Islamic Republic of Iran is exporting across the region.
The following memo assesses Jordan’s recent and escalating antagonism toward Israel. It also explores the regional friction created by Jordan’s abstention from the Abraham Accords alliance structures. The memo concludes with recommendations to tackle this challenge, which could hinder U.S. national security interests if not addressed.
Regional Changes
Several events led to the profound regional change in the last decade. The first was the Arab Spring, which began in 2011. While the first waves of unrest initially challenged the corrupt and ossified authoritarian regimes that dominated the region, Israel and several Arab governments stood opposed to the emergence of Muslim Brotherhood movements that sought to hijack the protests. Concerns about regional stability deepened in 2013, with the announcement of the interim Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA). The Israelis, under the leadership of then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, were stridently opposed to this U.S.-led effort. In many ways, Israel’s active public diplomacy gave voice to the concerns of the rest of the region, which is traditionally less vocal. Israel further inspired some of the surrounding states when it began to wage the “war between wars,” an asymmetric campaign targeting Iranian military assets across the region.3
Israel also emerged in recent years as a regional (if not a global) power in the realms of technology, intelligence collection, missile defense, desalination, agriculture, life sciences, cyber, and more.4 The Arab world increasingly seeks to benefit from Israel’s capabilities. Israel’s natural gas discoveries, which could serve to provide additional funds for these advancements, only make a stronger case for integration.
Concurrently, Arab governments have grown less zealous about the Palestinian cause. This does not mean that the Arab world has given up on the idea of Palestinian state. But a growing number of Arab states are exasperated with the ineffectual Palestinian leadership that has squandered Arab financial and political support. Slowly and steadily, Arab countries have deprioritized the Palestinian cause and are now increasingly pursuing their own national interests. With leading Arab states stressing “stability and prosperity,”5 there are clear opportunities for other normalization agreements to follow. Jordan appears to be ambivalent about this.
The Benefits of Peace
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan was opposed to the creation of the Jewish state in 1948. Jordan joined the Arab war against Israel and conquered the West Bank and East Jerusalem during that clash. Conflict between the two countries simmered for the next two decades before erupting again in 1967, when Israel captured the West Bank and East Jerusalem. What followed were decades of public enmity but secret diplomacy. In 1963, King Hussein established a direct channel with a senior Israeli diplomat in London.6 Seven years later, Israel mobilized to thwart Syrian aggression against the Hashemite Kingdom during the Black September crisis.7 In 1973, King Hussein even warned Israel of an impending Arab attack on the eve of the Yom Kippur War.8 Even though the two countries harbored severe political disagreements, they came to see one another as assets. In 1987, they nearly reached a peace agreement, but the First Intifada scuttled that opportunity.9 When the Palestinians entered into the Oslo Accords in 1993, that was the last barrier to agreement for Hussein. He made peace with Israel in 1994.
The personal relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein was key to the initial warm ties.10 By 1997, however, there were signs of strain. One reason was the attempted assassination of Hamas official Khaled Meshaal by the Israeli Mossad in Amman. The attempt on Meshaal’s life sparked a diplomatic crisis that forced Israel to provide the antidote (and the release of Hamas founding leader Ahmed Yassin from Israeli prison) in exchange for Jordan’s release of the captured Israeli spies.11 Tensions also spiked that year when a Jordanian soldier opened fire on a group of Israeli students visiting the “Island of Peace” — land leased to Israel as part of the 1994 arrangement. In a dramatic moment, King Hussein visited Israel and knelt before the victims’ families.12
After the death of King Hussein and the ascension of his son, Abdullah, in February 1999, ties began to deteriorate more significantly. The new king appeared to harbor more overt distrust for Israel. This is abundantly clear in Abdullah’s 2011 autobiography, in which the monarch asserts that “Israeli policies are mainly to blame for [the current] gloomy reality.”13 Tensions soared with the outbreak of the Second Intifada in 2000. This campaign of terrorism, carried out by scores of Palestinian terrorist groups, was met with zero tolerance by the Israeli government. Protesting the Israeli response, Jordan recalled its ambassador. Diplomatic ties were not restored until 2005, after the violence subsided.14.
Fortunately, what followed was nearly a decade of relatively stable relations. The commitment to an enduring peace has benefitted both Israel and the Hashemite regime. Military, intelligence, economic, and other cooperation have undeniably helped both sides. For Israel, the predictability and relative stability along its longest border certainly enables the military pivot toward more pressing concerns.
For Jordan, the economic perks are particularly clear. As an inducement to enter the peace agreement, President Bill Clinton promised to forgive $700 million of Jordan’s debt15 (though the sum was later reduced as it passed through Congress).16 In November 1997, the U.S. established a Qualifying Industrial Zone (QIZ) in Jordan. Goods manufactured in the QIZ could be exported to the United States duty free, provided they had Israeli inputs. The agreement helped create 60,000 jobs and facilitated substantial growth in trade.17 Jordanian exports to the United States are now more than $1 billion.18.
In 2001, Washington signed a free trade agreement with Jordan, America’s first with an Arab country, which came into effect in 2010. Trade between the U.S. and Jordan increased by more than 30 percent between 2009 and 2013 alone.19 Today, the United States is Jordan’s largest supplier of aid.20 While not all of this resulted directly from the 1994 agreement, Washington unquestionably intended to provide perks for maintaining peace with Israel.
Israel also contributed to Jordan’s economic growth following the 1994 agreement. Tourism in Jordan expanded significantly following the peace agreement. This includes a marked uptick in visitors from the United States and Israel.21 Currently, Israel and Jordan are negotiating the construction of the joint Jordan Gateway Industrial Park to create more jobs and to strengthen both economies.22
Israel has likewise contributed significantly to Jordan’s well-being through the provision of water and energy. The 1994 accords stipulated that Israel sell Jordan a specified amount of water annually. Israel, a world leader in desalination technology, has held up its end of the bargain and last year even agreed to double its contribution.23 Meanwhile, in 2014, after discovering gas off its Mediterranean coast, Israel agreed to export $500 million worth of gas to Jordan.24 Texas-based Noble Energy and Jordan’s National Electric Company signed a 15-year, $10 billion gas deal in 2016. The deal provides for 40 percent of Jordan’s electricity needs.25 Noble sent its first shipment of gas to Jordan in 2020.26 Israel and Jordan also agreed to a water-for-energy deal in November 2021, whereby Israel will provide Jordan with 200 million cubic meters of water in exchange for solar energy.27 The two countries reaffirmed the agreement at the United Nations COP27 climate conference in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh in November 2022.28 At the conference, Jordan and Israel also signed an agreement to mitigate pollution of the Jordan River, which borders both countries.29.
Israel and the United States have also cooperated closely with the Jordanians on a wide range of security-related issues.30 Not all of this activity has been made public. But the training, intelligence-sharing, and other military activity has been hailed by all three militaries. In 2015, Jordanian pilots flew alongside their Israeli counterparts in a Red Flag exercise (advanced aerial combat training hosted by the United States Air Force). This was the first time the parties publicly acknowledged joint air force training.31 Last year, Jordan also participated in an Israeli-hosted Blue Flag exercise, air force training designed to simulate realistic combat scenarios.32
Increasingly Open Hostility
Despite all of this, Jordan remains relatively poor and somewhat unstable. Of course, the country’s perennially tenuous economic and political challenges would have undeniably been far worse without the assistance made possible by the 1994 agreement. But this offers little consolation.
Driven by a combination of domestic political considerations, unrealistic expectations, and both legitimate and illegitimate grievances, Amman has pulled away from Israel in recent years. The official rhetoric about Israel has grown increasingly negative, if not vitriolic. The same can be observed in Jordan’s government-censored media. And despite the ongoing cooperation on a range of challenges, diplomatic ties are in a deep freeze. Israeli officials are keenly aware of this dynamic. They have shared their frustration in closed-door meetings.33
In recent years, senior Israeli officials quietly attributed tensions to a personality conflict between King Abdullah II and Benjamin Netanyahu.34 Trump administration policies that Israel welcomed did not sit well with Jordan, either. Specifically, Jordanian officials warned that moving the American embassy to Jerusalem was a “red line” that would have “catastrophic” impact.35 Ties were strained further when Netanyahu prepared to annex portions of the West Bank in 2020, with Abdullah warning of a “massive conflict” as a result.36
When Netanyahu left office in 2021, officials in Jerusalem expected ties to improve. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed that Netanyahu “destroyed” Israel’s relationship with Jordan and declared that his government was “fixing the relationship.”37 Alternate Prime Minister Yair Lapid similarly acknowledged Jordan’s role as “an important strategic ally for Israel” and pledged to “work with” Abdullah to “strengthen the relationship between our two countries.”38 According to Israeli officials, relations improved during the Bennett/Lapid government’s time in office.39 However, Jordanian rhetoric toward Israel did not markedly improve. New tensions are now expected with the return of Netanyahu, given the king’s unabashed distaste for the Israeli leader. Ties could be further strained with reports that Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal has been spending more time in Jordan with the approval of the Hashemite Kingdom.40
The Palestinian Issue
In an oversimplification of the current dynamics, Jordanian officials invariably blame Israel’s ongoing military presence in the disputed West Bank for the recent tensions. Officials in Amman have grown sharply critical of policies they associate with the “Israeli occupation.” Of course, the status quo has not changed dramatically since Jordan entered into its agreement with Israel in 1994. Moreover, if it were simple to fix the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, it would have been solved long ago. Nevertheless, Jordan blames the failure of the Palestinians to achieve statehood on Israeli policy. The Israelis dispute this, insisting that a combination of Palestinian corruption, poor governance, irredentism, disunity, and extremism have made this file even more challenging to address.
The Palestinian issue is undeniably the driving force behind Jordan’s rhetoric. An estimated 50 percent of Jordan’s population of 10 million is Palestinian, owing to migration from the 1948–1949 Israeli War of Independence (or the Palestinian “Nakba,” depending upon one’s view of history). Jordanian politicians and diplomats will cite this figure behind closed doors, but the government has in the past attempted to adjust this figure downward. The Palestinian Authority-run Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics estimated in 2015 that 2.2 million Palestinians were living in Jordan.41 Whatever the precise number, the Palestinians make up a substantial portion of the population in Jordan.
While Jordanian officials may not say so explicitly, the animosity harbored by Jordan’s Palestinian population toward Israel has a significant influence on the kingdom’s foreign policies. Despite its reliance upon Israel for security, intelligence, and a range of products and services, and despite the trilateral relationship with Israel and the United States that is a core pillar of Jordan’s relationship with Washington, Amman simply cannot embrace Israel openly. This has become abundantly clear in recent years.
In a speech before the United Nations General Assembly in 2016, King Abdullah placed the blame for the lack of diplomatic progress between Israel and the Palestinians entirely on Israel. “No injustice has spread more bitter fruit than the denial of a Palestinian state,” he said. “Peace is a conscious decision. Israel has to embrace peace or eventually be engulfed in a sea of hatred in a region of turmoil.”42
In 2017, a Jordanian stabbed an Israeli security guard at the residential complex at the Israeli embassy compound in Amman.43 The guard — Ziv Moyal — shot his attacker in self-defense. The Jordanian landlord was also shot and eventually died from his wounds. A standoff ensued after the shooting.44 Invoking diplomatic immunity, Israel would not permit Jordanian authorities to question Moyal. Jordan, however, would not allow Moyal to leave the country without being investigated. The impasse ended after diplomatic interventions by U.S. officials. The warm public reception that Prime Minister Netanyahu gave Moyal did not help improve matters.45
Notably, that incident occurred amidst the tensions that flared at the Temple Mount compound, where Israel had installed metal detectors after Israeli-Arab gunmen killed two Israeli policemen. The move unleashed a wave of public outrage, including a direct intervention by King Abdullah, invoking his role as custodian of the religious authorities on the Temple Mount, pursuant to the 1994 peace agreement. After Moyal returned to Israel, Israel removed the metal detectors.46 After that, Israel reopened its embassy in Amman and agreed to pay reparations.47
The frictions between Jordan and Israel were far from settled after this. In fact, disagreements over the Temple Mount were just heating up. Jordan, citing its role of custodian over the Temple Mount, continues to assert itself. Israel, which has sovereignty over the holy site that holds great significance for Jews and Muslims alike, continues to coordinate with Jordan. But it refuses to cede full control. This should come as no surprise. Israel has legitimate security concerns. And the Israelis want to convey that they maintain full control over their capital. Jordan, which lost Jerusalem to Israel in the 1967 Six-Day War, understands this dynamic full well. Nevertheless, Israel’s security presence, the role and numbers of Jordanian personnel assigned to monitor the compound, and other related issues continue to irk officials in Amman, who openly express their frustrations.
But it is the fate of the Palestinian national project that remains the focus of Jordanian officials. In 2020, amidst reports that Israel might annex parts of the disputed West Bank, the king effectively warned that he was considering nullifying the 1994 peace agreement. “I don’t want to make threats and create an atmosphere of loggerheads, but we are considering all options,” he stated.48 What is notable here is that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain were equally opposed to such an Israeli move. However, the UAE and Bahrain leveraged Israel’s desire to deepen ties with the Arab world to thwart the move. Indeed, the UAE secured Israeli guarantees to prevent annexation by entering into the Abraham Accords.
During the 2021 war between Israel and the Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Jordan effectively took Hamas’ side in the global battle for public opinion. Just before the eruption of conflict, a government statement accused “Israeli police and special forces” of being “barbaric.” Amidst coordinated unrest on the Temple Mount, including rock-throwing and other forms of violence, Jordan “rejected and condemned” the responding Israeli security forces for what it described as “violations against the mosque to attacks on worshippers.”49 When war broke out several days later, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi slammed Israel at the Arab League, saying the Jewish state was “playing with fire.” At the Arab League’s emergency meeting, Safadi said, “The Israeli Occupation authorities will not enjoy security if the Palestinians do not enjoy it.”50
When tensions flared between Palestinians and Israelis during Ramadan in 2022, including actions taken by Israel to neutralize extremist group activity, Safadi again claimed that Israel was trying to change the status quo in Jerusalem and that this amounted to “playing with fire.”51
During the king’s speech before the United Nations General Assembly on September 20, 2022, King Abdullah made the disputable claim that, “Christianity in the Holy City is under fire. The rights of churches in Jerusalem are threatened.”52 The statement drew contestations and condemnations from a range of Christian groups.53
More recently, the Jordanian government has excoriated Israel for actions in lawless pockets of the West Bank. Secretary-General of the Royal Committee for Jerusalem Affairs Abdullah Kanaan condemned Israel in harsh terms for its ongoing battle against extremists. The Jordan Times, a government-censored outlet, cited a litany of purported Israeli crimes: “killing, imprisonment, confiscating lands, expelling Palestinians from their lands, raiding Palestinians’ Islamic and Christian holy sites, and imposing restrictions on the freedoms of worship and culture.”54
Jordan’s concerns may be sincere. However, such rhetoric has failed to solve any of the region’s problems. If anything, it may be exacerbating them.
Diplomatic Rejectionism
Jordan has made no attempt to hide its rejection of the new regional order marked by Israeli peace agreements with surrounding Arab states. Shockingly, despite its peace agreement with Israel and its warm relations with the UAE and Bahrain, Jordan refused to send diplomatic representatives to the White House ceremony marking the Abraham Accords.
After the deal was announced, Safadi stated: “If Israel considers the agreement as a means to end the occupation and meet the Palestinians’ rights to freedom and the creation of a viable independent state with East Jerusalem as its capital on the pre-1967 borders, the region will move ahead towards realizing peace, or else Israel will deepen the conflict that will jeopardize the entire region’s security.”55
After the 2021 war between Israel and Hamas, relations between Jordan and Israel were sufficiently tense that a senior Emirati official told a Washington audience that the UAE was actively urging a “reconnection” between the two countries. The official underscored the need for a “channel to influence Israel positively.”56
In March 2022, Amman sent a jarring message: it declined to participate in the Negev Summit, a diplomatic conference held in Israel with its peace partners. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Egypt all attended, along with the United States. The goal was to formalize collaboration across a range of fields. Efforts to that end are ongoing.
Under increased scrutiny for eschewing regional peace efforts, Jordanian officials have provided two different reasons for declining to join the Negev Summit. The first was a scheduling conflict. Several articles attribute Jordan’s absence to Safadi’s schedule. The Jerusalem Post claimed that Safadi was in a “pre-scheduled meeting in Doha” and that he was “more likely to attend future meetings.”57 Later, it was reported that Safadi had instead accompanied the king to a meeting with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah.58
The second explanation for Jordan’s failure to participate in the Negev Summit was its insistence that the Palestinians be included. Then Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was apparently hesitant to agree for fear that the Palestinian issue would upstage the broader, regional priorities.59 The UAE reportedly had similar concerns.
Domestic conditions may have also contributed to Jordan’s decision. Days before the Negev Summit convened, Jordanian officials arrested dozens of political activists commemorating the anniversary of the Arab Spring.60 Other sources suggest that the government feared political instability, particularly from Islamists and the dominant Palestinian population but also among East Bankers (Jordan’s traditional tribal power brokers not of Palestinian origin) if Jordan participated.61
Not Only Israel
The Jordanian government is not only potentially imperiling its valuable relationship with Israel. It has also, at times, snubbed the pragmatic Arab states that have either entered into alliances with Israel (the UAE) or are taking steps to mitigate hostilities with the Jewish state with an eye toward regional stability (the Saudis).
While Jordan has not come out and directly challenged the UAE for its decision to normalize with Israel, the absence of closer cooperation between the three countries reveals a fault line. Until now, the UAE and Israel have exhibited patience toward Jordan. That patience appears to have paid off. In November, the three countries announced plans to move ahead with a deal involving water and solar energy.62
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and Jordan have been more obvious at times. Friction emerged in 2021 amidst a purported coup plot involving the king’s half-brother Hamza that was allegedly disrupted by Jordanian authorities. One figure arrested was Bassem Awadallah, a former Jordanian official with ties to senior Saudi leadership, feeding unsubstantiated suspicions that Saudi Arabia was behind the plot.63 Saudi officials denied their involvement. But ties were strained enough to spur a Saudi delegation to travel to Amman to “refute in person” whatever charges were being leveled.64
Based on background conversations with informed figures in Jordan this summer, the Royal Court may still be adjusting to a new generation of Arab leaders.65 Figures like Mohammed Bin Zayed (MBZ) of the UAE and Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) of Saudi Arabia are peers of King Abdullah. Yet, because their countries enjoy greater wealth and stability, they have leapfrogged him to emerge as the new leaders of the region. Jordan certainly does not appear to resent their wealth or success. Still, a complicated triangle has formed. While MBZ enjoys warm ties with Abdullah, the king’s relationship with MBS is decidedly cooler. MBZ has reportedly worked to help bridge the differences between the Jordanian and Saudi rulers.
Jordan’s Economic Challenges
If Jordan is indeed ambivalent about the wealthier Gulf states and their ties to Israel, this is the wrong time to articulate that. Even with their assistance, Jordan’s economy has not performed well. In 2019, Jordan’s GDP growth rate hovered at roughly 2 percent for the fourth year in a row. This is a marginal decrease from 2010–2015, when Jordan’s GDP grew by an average of 2.6 percent, and significantly lower than 2000–2009, when the average growth rate was 6.4 percent.66 In 2019, Jordan’s public debt reached 99 percent of GDP67 and then ballooned to 113 percent in 2021.68
Some of this is due to the impact of a series of regional crises. Turmoil in Iraq and Syria has caused critical trade routes to close. The Arab Spring severely disrupted the country’s energy supply.69 Jordan has also suffered from a massive influx of refugees, as many as 1.3 million, seeking to escape the civil war in Syria.70 Covid-19 further battered Jordan, causing the economy to contract by 1.6 percent in 2020.71 The economy has bounced back, but economic growth is still expected to hover at a meager 2 percent.72 And despite this growth, unemployment in Jordan rose from 18.6 percent in 2018 to 23.3 percent last year.73
In September 2022, Jordan and the U.S. signed a seven-year memorandum of understanding, allocating $1.45 billion annually to Jordan beginning in 2023.74 The aid may help Jordan tackle some of the above challenges, but Jordanian officials admit that it will likely be insufficient to meet the country’s economic and military needs.
The Saudis and Emiratis serve as Jordan’s most important Arab financial patrons. In 2011, the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, established a $5 billion development program for Jordan.75 Other Saudi investments in 2015 included $50 million for the construction of a fiber optic internet network and $30 million to support industrial cities in Tafilah, Madaba, Jerash, and Al-Salt. 76
In 2018, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait pledged an additional $2.5 billion to help revive Jordan’s economy.77 Fulfillment is another story, of course. In 2019, the UAE provided $500.2 million in aid to Jordan, primarily through the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development.78 The UAE also deposited $333 million in the Jordanian Central Bank to address Jordan’s budget deficit. That was converted into a soft loan in 2022.79
In 2020, the UAE sent several shipments of medical aid to help Jordan combat the pandemic.80 In 2022, Jordan, the UAE, and Egypt established the Industrial Partnership for Sustainable Economic Development — a $10 billion investment fund backed by the Abu Dhabi holding firm ADQ.81 The three countries signed an agricultural agreement under which the UAE will invest in grain production in Jordan at a time of possible grain shortages stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.82 The Jordanian Ministry of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship and ADQ launched a $100 million technology investment fund in 2022.83
Recently, Saudi Arabia ramped up its investments in Jordan. In June, the Saudi Public Investment Fund took a $185 million stake (23.97 percent) in the Capital Bank of Jordan.84 Jordanian and Saudi companies also signed several agreements at a convention organized by the Amman Chamber of Commerce and the Council of Saudi Chambers.85 The Saudi Jordanian Investment Fund backed a $400 million healthcare project for an academic hospital and a medical school in Amman.86
Some in Jordan believe the Gulf states are still holding back in terms of total amounts and fulfillment, but they are still unquestionably important for Jordan’s economic well-being. Indeed, Saudi Arabia and the UAE rank among Jordan’s top partners in energy, as well as other products and services.87
External Security Challenges
To the extent that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are well positioned to buttress Jordan economically, Israel is the natural partner to help combat some of the country’s security threats.
Chief among the kingdom’s threats right now is the influx of Captagon. Jordan sits at the nexus of trafficking routes between Syria and the Gulf. Shipments of the illicit drug increased by 87 percent between 2013 and 2018 and have since accelerated.88 In 2020, the Jordanian army seized 1.4 million Captagon pills. Seizures for 2022 reached a whopping 17 million pills. And while Jordan was once considered just a transit point for pills destined for the Arabian Gulf, the drugs have become increasingly popular among Jordanian youth, with addiction cases on the rise.89
In 2022, amidst several reports of violent incidents, a clash along the Jordan-Syria border left 27 smugglers dead.90 King Abdullah blamed Iran-linked militias for the uptick in violence.91 Smuggling operations are reportedly backed by the Syrian military’s Fourth Division, led by Maher al-Assad. Several Iran-aligned militias are also complicit.92
Drugs are only part of Jordan’s Iran problem. In a May 2022 conversation with former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, King Abdullah voiced concerns that Iranian forces in Syria could soon destabilize his country. With Russia expected to redeploy assets and forces from Syria to the mired war effort in Ukraine, the monarch expressed concerns that Iran could seek to fill the void. “That vacuum [left by the Russians] will be filled by the Iranians and their proxies. So unfortunately, we are looking at maybe an escalation of problems on our borders,” Abdullah said.93 Jordan also faces a threat from Iran-backed militias in Iraq to the north. Additional threats loom in the south, with Iranian assets reportedly operating in the Red Sea.94
The close military cooperation between Jordan and Israel is not always made public. But officials in both countries (and in Washington) attest to the fact that these ties are both wide and deep. Cooperation must continue, or even increase, particularly as Iran’s malign activity grows across the Middle East. Closer ties would likely require a shift in Jordan’s approach toward Israel.
Conclusion
King Hussein was willing to test the boundaries of the contract between sovereign and subjects, particularly as it related to Israel. Under Abdullah, this is increasingly not the case. If anything, Abdullah appears to want to validate the concerns of the Palestinians living in Jordan. He may be trying to placate the country’s Islamist, Palestinian, and other opposition groups as well after a decade of political and economic challenges. This could come at a cost.
This is not to say that Jordan’s concerns are not occasionally worth voicing. Israeli policies sometimes justify such rhetoric. No country is perfect. However, Israel is not alone in encumbering the path to Middle East peace. The Palestinians, the Iranians, and other malign actors deserve plenty of blame. Nor is Israel to blame for some of the recent violent episodes on the Temple Mount. Palestinian rejectionist groups are too often responsible, both historically and recently.
The motivation for Jordan to advocate urgently for a two-state solution is certainly understandable. The frustration among Jordanians of Palestinian descent threatens Jordanian stability. But it is not at all clear that openly clashing with Israel, a guarantor of Jordan’s regional stability, will solve Jordan’s Palestinian problem. If anything, harsh rhetoric could make conditions worse.
Moreover, there has been little consideration of the security threats that a West Bank Palestinian state could pose, should one be created. The Palestinian Authority lacks the ability to govern, let alone to secure its own borders. The current Palestinian Authority chairman, Mahmoud Abbas, took power in 2005 and has refused to hold elections ever since, raising troubling questions about political legitimacy. Jordan rarely, if ever, voices these concerns.
In fact, there is insufficient Jordanian criticism of the Palestinian Authority, let alone the violent terrorist groups Hamas or Islamic Jihad. Whereas the role of Jordan was once seen as a bulwark against the extremism that was all too common across the Middle East, the Hashemite Kingdom increasingly ranks among the region’s more strident voices as it relates to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
To be sure, Jordan should not be counted among the Iranian axis that actively calls for Israel’s destruction (Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon). However, Jordan today does not fit within the bloc of pragmatic states, such as the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt, and even Saudi Arabia. Instead, it appears to have found its place among the nonaligned states of the Arab world (for example, Algeria and Kuwait). These are states that advocate stridently for the Palestinian cause and reject normalization. But there is one difference between Jordan and the other states that fit this description: The others do not urgently require sustained assistance from America, Israel, or the Gulf states. This should give the Hashemite Kingdom pause.
Historically, political and diplomatic independence has not been a deleterious thing for Jordan. This fierce sense of independence has steered the kingdom away from toxic nationalist, religious, and ideological trends, such as Islamism and Nasserism. However, in this case, it is difficult to discern what Jordan gains, apart from appeasing some of its own subjects at the expense of greater regional instability and increased prosperity.
A pragmatic bloc of allied states beckons. These states seek a better future for the Middle East.
For the sake of a stable and prosperous future, the continued influence of the United States in the Middle East, and strong governments in both Amman and Jerusalem, stronger ties between Jordan and Israel must be restored. Multiple actors have roles to play in this regard:
The United States: Washington must work to restore better ties between Israel and Jordan. This relationship is important to the success of broader normalization efforts, Iran containment policies, and great power competition. Washington must therefore convey to Amman that while privately expressed opprobrium is well within bounds, needlessly hostile public rhetoric is not helpful. Such statements are rare in Washington, where officials often view Jordan as beyond reproach thanks to a prevailing view, based on Jordan’s geopolitical position, that it is “too weak to fail.” Washington must change this paradigm while also identifying ways to encourage economic and military ties between the two countries. This can be done in ways that strengthen America’s position globally, such as encouraging jointly produced products that bypass China and create more trustworthy supply chains. Pharmaceuticals is one obvious place to start.95 In the meantime, the U.S. should also encourage the parties to create mechanisms to maintain calm on the Temple Mount and to better monitor the borders of both countries to counter the flow of the weapons and narcotics that threaten both nations.
Israel: Jerusalem should coordinate more closely with Jordan on matters concerning the Temple Mount. Jordan takes its role as custodian of the Al-Aqsa Mosque seriously. Granting Jordan what it requests to regulate the holy site (admitting agreed-upon numbers of religious authorities, guards, and other officials) is smart policy, so long as Jordan respects Israel’s right to intervene during events that threaten Israeli security. A three-way mechanism with the United States should be considered. In the meantime, Israel must continue to look for ways to continue to strengthen Jordan, both militarily and economically. The Jordan Gateway project,96 the Blue Green Prosperity project,97 and efforts to grant Jordan more access to West Bank markets98 deserve support. Military and intelligence cooperation should continue apace. Jordan remains a vital ally to Israel, and it should be treated as such. This does not grant Jordan the right to whip up anti-Israel sentiment around the region. When this occurs, Israel should address that activity through the appropriate channels.
The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Egypt: All four countries must continue to find ways to encourage Jordan to integrate into the Abrahamic architecture in the Middle East. Jordan’s bilateral and multilateral cooperation with these countries, and perhaps even its economic ties, should be contingent, at least in part, upon its participation in these regional constructs. They are crucial to the future of the region, and they should not be held hostage by Palestinian maximalist demands.
Saudi Arabia: Riyadh is not a party to the Abraham Accords. Nor is it an avowed enemy of Israel any longer. The Saudis can demonstrate to Jordan (and the rest of the Arab world) that Arab governments can maintain a principled position on the Palestinian issue while tempering public criticism and quietly cooperating on common threats. The Saudis should work with Amman to identify ways to deepen the trilateral relationship, even if a solution to the Palestinian issue is delayed.
Jordan: The status quo, one in which Jordan enjoys the perks of peace while simultaneously excoriating Israel for real and imagined transgressions, does not portend stability in the region. Nor does it bode well for Jordan, given its dependence upon Israel or the other countries that have committed to a fundamental transformation of the Middle East. The Hashemite Kingdom must conduct a strategic review of its peace with Israel, with an eye toward openly acknowledging and further strengthening the security and trade ties that are indispensable for Jordan. Such a review should also assess the potential dangers of allowing ties with Israel to deteriorate, particularly as Jerusalem loses patience with such scathing public rhetoric. Jordan should also conduct a review of the benefits of joining Abraham Accords structures, with the goal of pursuing stability, security, and prosperity.
Ties between Jordan and Israel are currently at a low point. But they have certainly not deteriorated beyond repair. The structures stood up by Washington, not to mention by Amman and Jerusalem, remain firmly in place. A return to the fundamentals, with a concurrent embrace of the new regional order, are key to a prosperous and secure future for both American allies. Moreover, they are key to the continued security of a U.S.-led Middle East.
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A story for the next US presidential election
Dr. John C. Hulsman/Arab News/December 09, 2022
Back in the 2000s, during the month-long book tour for our best-selling “The Godfather Doctrine,” my co-author and great friend Wess Mitchell came upon a hypothesis as to why our book had done so unexpectedly well. Since time began, Wess hypothesized, human beings have primarily learned about life through the telling of stories.
For example, the first two great works of Western civilization were, respectively, about a war, “The Iliad,” and a guy just trying to make it home, “The Odyssey.” Our book, a parable about US foreign policy told through the story of the never-bettered American film “The Godfather,” was merely following in this well-established human way of thinking. Following in this Homeric tradition, I would like to tell you a story about the 2024 US presidential election that goes a long way toward predicting what is likely to happen and — more importantly — why it is going to happen.
Let us start our tale with the crucial fact that the present front-runners for the two party nominations are Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the two least-popular leaders since Gallup polling began in 1935. A Nov. 14 Morning Consult poll made this very clear. A decisive 65 percent of those polled did not want Biden to run for reelection, while the exact same number said the same of Trump’s efforts.
So, both parties have a succession crisis. The first to solve theirs and pivot away from the deep unpopularity of their present standard-bearer is likely to win the next election. That is, if the Democrats can get rid of Biden, they are likely to beat Trump, just as a GOP without Trump is likely to best the aging president.
Paradoxically, the midterms have made it more likely that the Republicans and not the Democrats are on their way to sorting out their succession problem. This is because the Democrats did a good deal better than was expected, having the fourth-best midterm result for a new presidency in the past 100 years. Narrowly losing the House as was predicted, the Democrats surprisingly managed to retain the Senate, even picking up a seat to hold a narrow 51-49 advantage. Why did the Democrats, despite Biden’s dismal approval rating of 43 percent, manage to do so well?
Rather than the 2022 vote serving as a traditional referendum on the new presidency, as was expected to be the case, instead the Democrats adroitly pitched it as a choice between Trump and Biden, ground they could win on.
The first party to pivot away from the deep unpopularity of their present standard-bearer is likely to win
Trump also helped build their case in a number of ways. First, he hand-picked terrible, flawed Senate candidates like Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and the egregious Herschel Walker in Georgia. Second, Trump hoarded the money his political action committee had raised, selfishly saving it for himself rather than helping the GOP’s hard-pressed candidates. Third, Trump’s acolytes had to agree to push his pathetic conspiracy theory about the 2020 vote being stolen from him; these election deniers were punished across the board.
In many ways, the emergence of Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida is the answer to the GOP’s basic succession crisis; he provides the party with Trumpism (which is popular nationally) without Trump (who is not). On a night of Republican disappointments, DeSantis won reelection by a whopping 19.5 percent. He achieved this political feat by governing effectively and taking on the leftist mainstream media over social issues (such as so-called wokeism and immigration) and economic matters (keeping Florida open during much of the pandemic). As a man with a successful record of putting the Trumpist agenda into actual effect, DeSantis is the bright new hope of the party.
The governor ticks a lot of boxes. Graduating from Yale and Harvard Law School, DeSantis is a serious thinker about the issues. Serving in Iraq, he won the Bronze Star Medal, while Trump skipped Vietnam because of bone spurs. The governor also has a telegenic wife and young family. Along with all these pluses, he retains faith in the Trumpist agenda, being broadly for deregulation, America not fighting stupid wars, an anti-woke social stance and a patriotic, interest-based foreign policy, with the populist concerns of his working-class constituents at the center of his efforts. Indeed, this represents Trumpism without Trump, which must be the GOP formula for future success.
On the other side of the ledger, Biden, incredibly, feels the 2022 midterms vindicate his often-disastrous first years in office, despite the fact that 65 percent to 70 percent of the country blame him for the rampant inflation that has caused the present cost-of-living crisis. Encouraged, the president is more likely than ever to run for reelection and no modern president has lost his party’s nomination once he has entered the race. Doomed, the Democrats seem to be shackled to the fading Biden. The moral of our story, then, is simple and profound, like the best of literature. Based on the midterm outcome, it is far more likely that Biden will run again and ruinously gain his party’s nomination, while Trump can be thwarted from attaining the GOP nod. As such, the Republicans are in a far better position to solve their succession crisis than are the Democrats. The White House in 2024 is theirs for the taking.
• John C. Hulsman is the president and managing partner of John C. Hulsman Enterprises, a prominent global political risk consulting firm. He is also a senior columnist for City AM, the newspaper of the City of London. He can be contacted via johnhulsman.substack.com.

Missiles and drones will not solve Iran’s problems
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/ December 09/2022
At last, the West woke up to Iran's missiles and drones, just as it woke up to the internal crisis that the “Islamic Republic” faces. The crisis in Tehran stems from the fact that the regime could not ever reconcile itself with the Iranian people. What can be understood from the recent summit in Washington between President Joe Biden and President Emmanuel Macron is that there is a new Western perspective on the Iranian issue. This perspective takes into account Iran’s internal dynamic on the one hand and the Iranian involvement in the Ukrainian war, on the other.
The West has begun to admit that missiles and drones cannot feed citizens in a country where more than half of the population lives below the poverty line. Even Robert Malley, who is in charge of the Iranian file in Washington, has begun to reconsider his position on Tehran’s behaviour, after being one of the most supportive voices for a deal with the “Islamic Republic” regarding its nuclear programme.
Malley spoke of a greater American focus on Iranian arming of Russia in Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine and of US attention to the oppression that Iranians face. He pointed out that this focus on the relationship between Iran and Russia and on Iran’s domestic situation has come to outweigh the drive to revive the 2015 agreement on the Iranian nuclear programme. Since its inception in 1979, the Iranian regime has endeavoured to export its internal crisis beyond its borders. Today, thanks primarily to Iranian women, we can see that this policy has backfired, especially after the regime lost its authority and was forced to abandon one of its pillars, the morality police.
It is unfortunate that successive US administrations, especially the Obama White House, were preoccupied with the Iranian nuclear programme and how to appease the “Islamic Republic” instead of confronting the reality represented by the danger posed by the Iranian regime to the countries of the region on the one hand and to world peace on the other. Iran's involvement in the Ukrainian war in support of Putin, allowed the West to finally discover how serious the regime established by Ayatollah Khomeini, was about “exporting the revolution,” that is, exporting ruin, misery and sectarian impulses to the countries of the region. It seemed permissible for a while to export ruin to Arab countries, but the US and Europe could not let Iran enter the fray of Russia’s showdown with the West through the war that Putin is waging against Ukraine.
Ballistic missiles and drones do not change anything on the regional level, except spooking Iran's neighbours and pushing them to look for whatever means to protect themselves. Iran has used its missiles to target Iraqi cities between 1980 and 1988 during the Iran-Iraq war and to justify Israeli attacks on Lebanon or the Gaza Strip at a later stage.
There is no purpose in revisiting the past now as history alone will tell us whether Saddam had any other choice but to launch an insane war that backfired on him and which the Khomeini regime did everything to spark. Most importantly, Iran is currently using missiles and drones for political purposes, in the service of its expansionist project.
In so doing it is also confirming that there is no major difference between an Iranian president and his successor, as long as the “Revolutionary Guards” control the country and its economy. There were several Arab attempts to alert the United States to the danger of the Iranian expansionist project. However, those efforts fell on deaf ears in Washington and even in Paris. How will the US administration respond to the Iranian challenge, which has begun to take a different shape in the light of what is happening inside the “Islamic Republic”?
It is a big question with great significance.
It could mean a lot to the Iranian regime itself, which is still searching for an outside enemy that does not exist. It wants to prove once again, to Iranians first, that it does not fear the United States, but is in fact in the middle of a confrontation with America.
Do such hollow slogans still deceive anyone?
It is no coincidence that the Iranian regime is seeking these days to escape from its internal crisis through accusations that have nothing to do with reality. It pins blame on all governments in the US, Europe and the Arab Gulf countries, holding them responsible for the ongoing popular uprising that has erupted on September 16 with the death of Kurdish young woman. Mahsa Amini at the hands of the morality police.
In the final analysis, the overwhelming majority of Iranian people adhere to a culture of life. Iranians are not North Koreans. They know that the nuclear bomb as well as missiles and drones will not provide them with bread. What instead will bring food to the table for Iranians is the return of the country to being a normal state that cares about its internal affairs instead of investing in sectarian militias that have so far destroyed Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and parts of Yemen.