English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 07/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
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Bible Quotations For today
Is there unrighteousness with God? May it never be! For he said to Moses, “I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion
Romans 09/14-18/ What shall we say then? Is there unrighteousness with God? May it never be! For he said to Moses, “I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion.” So then it is not of him who wills, nor of him who runs, but of God who has mercy. For the Scripture says to Pharaoh, “For this very purpose I caused you to be raised up, that I might show in you my power, and that my name might be proclaimed in all the earth.” 18 So then, he has mercy on whom he desires, and he hardens whom he desires.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06-07/2022
What to make of Hezbollah's silence in Lebanon's tussle over the presidency/Michael Young/The National/December 07, 2022
Over half of Lebanon's GDP comes from remittances, report says/Nada Homsi/The National/December 07, 2022
Bassil says yesterday’s cabinet session “illegal”
Bassil won't break ties with Hezbollah despite 'strong blow'
Bassil lashes out at Hezbollah and others over 'partnership'
Tashnag says Boujikian's move 'shall not pass' without consequences
Kataeb: We will not partake in any unconstitutional parliamentary activity
LF says won't attend parliament session unless it's for president election
Ministers say decrees of Monday session may create new row
Jumblat sues Judge Aoun over 'WikiLeaks' tweet
Finance committee calls for exchange rate correction, salary taxes review
FPM MP lashes out at Mikati-Shiite Duo 'doika'
LGBTQ people in Lebanon: There’s no protection, but there’s existence
Army Commander broaches Lebanese Army affairs with EU Ambassador
American University of Beirut celebrates liberal education, peace, and hope on its 156th Founders Day

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2022
Confusion over Iran's religious police as women drop hijab
Five protesters sentenced to death by Iran regime
Israel Exercises Right to Self-Defense in Attack on Border Policeman
Prisoner Swap With Ukraine Sees 60 Russian Soldiers Freed
Russia blames Ukraine for 3rd drone strike on airbase in 2 days
Ukraine leader defiant as drone strikes hit Russia again
EU, Western Balkans to boost partnership amid Ukraine war
Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions
The EU price cap on Russian oil is already disrupting the market - tankers are piling up off Turkey after Ankara demands insurance paperwork
Moscow and other Russian cities are scaling back or canceling New Year parties to spend the money attacking Ukraine
Ukraine leader defiant as drone strikes hit Russia again
Russian Officials Fear Deserter on the Run Just Went Full Rambo With a Machine Gun
Macron seeks to reassure over French power cut fears
Al Jazeera submits slain journalist's case to ICC
China says U.S. nuclear weapons report is speculation

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2022
Biden Is Betraying Freedom-loving Protesters in China and Iran/Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 6, 2022
Will Bibi Make the Left’s Nightmares Come True? It’s Never Happened Before/Shany Mor and Einat Wilf/Haaretz/December 06/2022
No, Iran didn’t ban morality police — it duped press, and Biden administration/Richard Goldberg/New York Post/December 06/2022
Iran’s domestic woes might accelerate international confrontation/Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 06, 2022
Iran regime’s concessions meaningless unless they are applied/Hassan Al-Mustafa/Arab News/December 06/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06-07/2022
What to make of Hezbollah's silence in Lebanon's tussle over the presidency
Michael Young/The National/December 07, 2022
There are murmurings over a new-found flexibility in the militant party, but any optimism should be cautious.
n the past three years since Lebanon’s financial collapse, almost nothing has been done by the country’s political class to remedy the situation. None of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reforms have been implemented (except indirectly), and almost nobody believes the politicians will reverse this in the foreseeable future. That’s not to say the country’s finances and the economy haven’t changed. Economic realities, particularly dwindling foreign currency reserves, have forced the state to cut back on most subsidies. The mass departure of civil servants from the public administration due to the radical depreciation of the Lebanese pound has effectively led to an administrative purge. And the collapse of the pound, which has lost 96 per cent of its value since November 2019, has reduced the value of the domestic debt.
However, the politicians’ indolence has led to enormous suffering, pushing the World Bank to describe the economic situation as a “deliberate depression”. Yet until now, there has been no accountability for those responsible. In last May's elections, leading politicians and their allies were re-elected to parliament, as many voters returned those who had robbed them.
As it observes the situation, how might Hezbollah react? The question has more than academic value since the party has been on a sharp learning curve in the past six years. In 2016, it imposed Michel Aoun as president and essentially took control of most of the major posts in the state. The president was an ally, as was the speaker of parliament, while the prime minister was largely circumscribed by Hezbollah and its allies in the government. Yet this enhanced control did the party little good. The financial crises and Mr Aoun’s catastrophic presidency showed Hezbollah the risks of supporting one side against the other in a divided and volatile country. By the end of the president’s term, Hezbollah was looking for a way to avoid being blamed for the deteriorating situation, which is why it has not backed Mr Aoun’s son in law, Gebran Bassil, to succeed him.
However, beyond that, does Hezbollah need to plan for a more transformative period ahead in the country? That may sound like an odd question when Lebanon appears immune to change. Yet the party cannot be indifferent to the current uprising in Iran, which has shown a fundamental rift between the country’s leadership and a significant part of Iranian society. Even if the authorities reimpose order, many observers believe the system will have to change to survive.
Hezbollah has also learnt that the Lebanese sectarian system can be treacherous. Last year alone, the party and its allies found themselves caught up in three sectarian incidents – with the Sunnis, Druze, and Christians – any one of which could have had serious repercussions not only for internal stability, but also on Hezbollah’s relations with other communities.
In this context, might Hezbollah try to secure its role in Lebanon by placing it on a stronger footing? Might this imply concessions on its part? The sceptics say no, and they may well be right. Hezbollah will not budge on any of its principles – retaining its weapons, the alliance with Iran, and the need to control the commanding heights of the state – until it is forced to. However, it’s equally conceivable that by that time things may be too late. Some of the things to watch for in the near future will help us to better assess how Hezbollah views the future. The refusal to endorse Mr Bassil has already shown the party doesn't want to be burned again by imposing a president. However, Hezbollah is widely understood to back Suleiman Franjieh today, but has not ruled out other candidates, including the army commander Joseph Aoun, who enjoys wider national and international support.
It will be interesting to see if Hezbollah would be willing to go so far as to support Joseph Aoun’s election, if Mr Franjieh fails to get enough votes. If it does, it would be a calculated risk. The army commander’s election would be a sign to other parts of the region that the party is willing to compromise over a candidate. At the same time, it remains evident that no president, no matter how popular, could govern against Hezbollah. That reality may make the party more amenable to Joseph Aoun.
Second, might the party support an IMF plan for Lebanon? Most people assume there is nothing Hezbollah would like less. However, in an interview with Reuters last June, the party’s deputy secretary general was more ambiguous, saying that financial recovery was a priority, and that an IMF deal was a “necessary bridge” towards other funding. A third sign to watch out for is how Hezbollah deals with other Arab states. Until recently, it had reacted with hostility to whatever these states did. However, there have been signs lately that Hezbollah may seek a compromise with Saudi Arabia. Most recently, this involved having a journalist with ties to Hezbollah proposing a presidential quid pro quo, whereby the president would be close to the party and the prime minister close to Riyadh.
There are contradictory reports on the Saudi reaction. Some argue the Saudis have rejected this idea, while others are saying they may be willing to consider it. Whatever the truth, the fact that the idea was floated shows Hezbollah may be altering its attitude.
It’s best not to be over-optimistic about the party's flexibility. However, facing real challenges inside Lebanon and in the region, Hezbollah may wonder about whether it can sustain its current ascendency indefinitely, or whether change is needed. The coming weeks will tell us if that is indeed the case, or whether Hezbollah sees no need to loosen its grip.

Over half of Lebanon's GDP comes from remittances, report says
Nada Homsi/The National/December 07, 2022
As the country continues to suffer from a prolonged economic crisis, families and communities have become increasingly reliant on outside help. Outside remittances are fuelling more than half of Lebanon’s national income — making it the most remittance-dependent country in the world, a report has found. The Mercy Corps' 2021 findings are in stark contrast to the previous year when Lebanon ranked as the 12th-most remittance-dependent nation globally. The report, published on Tuesday, defines the struggling country's dependence on remittances as a coping strategy in the absence of political decisions to enact a recovery plan or bring about economic reforms. Remittances accounted for 53.8 per cent of the nation's gross domestic product in 2021, the report stated, estimating that between 15 and 30 per cent of families rely on them as a source of income. Of those households, 32 per cent reported that without remittances, they could not cover expenses. Forty-one per cent told the Mercy Corps, a humanitarian NGO, that they could not cover most basic needs without financial help from abroad. Households receive remittances from relatives abroad through methods including money sent intermittently through transfer services and also by individuals travelling back to Lebanon from abroad.
The report said a large proportion of these remittances — up to 70 per cent according to some experts — are carried in person through Beirut's airport. Lebanon is battling an economic crisis that the World Bank describes as one of the worst in modern history, now in its fourth year. The crisis nearly eradicated Lebanon’s middle class, with about two-thirds of the population now living in poverty, according to UN estimates. Meanwhile, people have been locked out of their savings due to informal capital controls imposed by Lebanon's commercial banks. The Lebanese pound has plunged and is worth just a fraction of what it was, losing more than 95 per cent of its value since 2019. The currency's value against the dollar fluctuates on a near-daily basis, causing most businesses to price up in order to cover potential losses. Inflation is at a record high. Subsidies on basic goods and services such as fuel, medicine and food have been lifted and are now priced in line with the US dollar or its parallel market equivalent.
As a result of the severe financial crisis and currency crash, the Mercy Corps report found that food prices increased by 700 per cent between 2019 and 2021 and remained on an upward trajectory into 2022. Remittances are not keeping pace with the rising cost of living, the report said, adding that purchasing power of foreign transfers decreased rapidly amid the removal of Lebanon’s central bank subsidies in 2021. Salaries have not kept pace with the currency’s devaluation and subsequent exponential inflation, the report found. It said by 2021, families in Lebanon were spending more than five times the minimum wage on food alone. A previously middle-class Lebanese family told Mercy Corps in July that their food budget was “at least” five times the minimum wage, while their income had devalued so substantially that they had resorted to rationing food and fuel. Although they keep struggling families afloat, the effect of remittances on Lebanon’s economy "has been minimal", the report concluded, and may in fact "divert spending away from productive sectors toward services and consumption".

Bassil says yesterday’s cabinet session “illegal”
NNA/December 07, 2022 
Free Patriotic Movement leader, MP Gebran Bassil, said that yesterday’s cabinet session was unconstitutional and illegal. “It was an execution of the constitution, a fatal blow to the Taif accord, and a stab at the national agreement that had been announced in Parliament,” Bassil told a press conference held in the wake of the "Strong Lebanon" Parliamentary bloc’s weekly meeting in Mirna Chalouhi. "Yesterday, they announced that they are issuing decrees without the signature of the President of the Republic based on Article 62 of the Constitution, which entrusts a fully convening Council of Ministers with the powers of the President of the Republic,” Bassil said. However, he stressed that his political party “will not accept what happened”, deeming the session a premeditated robbery of the presidency of the republic. He also accused Mikati of intentionally failing to form a cabinet in a bid to reach a point when the council of ministers could confiscate the powers of the president. “The President of the Republic is indivisible, as the powers practiced by his person are not to be exercised by anyone on his behalf; as for the powers attached to his signature, they are to be exercised by all the cabinet’s ministers as had been the case between the years 2014 and 2016,” Bassil added. He explained further that "a third of the government ministers did not participate in yesterday’s session, which also lacked the required specifications to be considered complete.”

Bassil won't break ties with Hezbollah despite 'strong blow'
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
Hezbollah’s cover for Monday’s cabinet session was a “strong blow to the Free Patriotic Movement and its head Jebran Bassil, who will hold a press conference today and is expected to mainly address Hezbollah in it,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported on Tuesday. Bassil “will not break ties with Hezbollah and he will wait to see if Hezbollah will break ties with him,” senior FPM sources told al-Akhbar. Monday’s session was “a strong step from Hezbollah in this direction, and the party’s clinging to Suleiman Franjieh’s nomination is also insistence by the party on deepening the separation,” the sources added. “As long as Hezbollah is clinging to the political establishment and to aiding it in the implementation of its agenda, the (Mar Mikhail) Agreement will be exhausting itself,” the sources said. The growing differences had started with “the electricity file and then the expat voting file, whose price was paid by Hezbollah itself, all the way to the parliamentary alliances whose price was also paid by the party,” the sources pointed out, while also citing “the pressure to designate (Najib) Mikati as premier, not pressing him to form a government all the way to yesterday’s session.”MP Salim Aoun of the FPM had announced Monday that the caretaker cabinet session was “a blatant message from our allies.”“This obligates us to reevaluate these alliances, seeing as the Lebanese Forces has taken a stance that resembles ours despite the differences between us,” Aoun added. MP Asaad Dergham of the FPM meanwhile said that “the Shiite Duo is impeding the presidential election sessions and is betting on our fatigue in order to negotiate over its candidate Suleiman Franjieh.”“As an advice, I tell them that this matter will increase Christian resentment towards them,” Dergham added.

Bassil lashes out at Hezbollah and others over 'partnership'
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil on Tuesday blasted Hezbollah, caretaker PM Najib Mikati and other parties over the caretaker cabinet session that was held on Monday, threatening to seek "broad administrative decentralization" should the other forces continue with the same course. “If someone thinks that they can press us over the presidential issue, we tell them that this matter won’t work because it leads to further stubbornness,” Bassil added at a press conference. “Mikati is weaker than being able to call for a cabinet session without his ‘handlers’ and he doesn’t dare to do so. Our problem is not with him, but rather with the honest parties who didn’t honor the agreement, the promise and the guarantee,” Bassil went on to say, referring to an agreement in parliament that no cabinet sessions would be held amid the presidential vacuum unless it is extremely necessary. “A return to the pre-2005 period requires either banishment, imprisonment or extermination and as long as we are alive there will be no return to that period,” a defiant Bassil pledged. “Our free existence is more precious than any understanding,” he stressed, in a jab at the FPM’s memorandum of understanding with Hezbollah. He added that what happened “proves that Najib Mikati was required not to form a cabinet.”“This is what we told everyone when we rejected his designation,” Bassil said. “We will not accept what happened and the issue shall not pass. What happened is a deliberate robbery against the presidential post,” the FPM chief added. Moreover, he described Monday’s session as “a death penalty against the constitution, a lethal blow to the Taif Accord and a stab against a national agreement that was declared in parliament.”“Yesterday’s session was unconstitutional, illegitimate and non-conforming to the National Pact,” Bassil added.

Tashnag says Boujikian's move 'shall not pass' without consequences
Naharnet/LCCC/December 07, 2022
Tashnag Secretary-General Hagop Pakradounian slammed Tuesday caretaker Industry Minister George Boujikian for defying the Tashnag Party. Boujikian had attended Monday a caretaker cabinet session, despite a declared Free Patriotic Movement boycott and a decision by the Tashnag party not to attend. By attending, Boujikian secured quorum for the session. "This shall not pass without consequences," Pakradounian said. He told al-Jadeed TV that "for personal reasons, Boujikian did not abide by the party's decision," adding that hospitals had asked him to attend as he owns a medical equipment company.
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati had called for an emergency session, arguing that the caretaker cabinet needs to approve urgent matters, including a decree related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis patients. The FPM considers that cabinet should not convene amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack on the president’s powers. Later on, this afternoon the Tashnag Party fired Boujikian from The Armenian Parliamentary bloc, because he was compliant with the parties decree not participate in yesterday's Cabinet session

Kataeb: We will not partake in any unconstitutional parliamentary activity
NNA/December 07, 2022
Kataeb Party Political Bureau on Tuesday warned in a statement issued following its periodic meeting chaired by Party Leader, MP Sami Gemayel, against normalizing the concept of presidential vacuum. “There shall be no regularity in the country’s constitutional life at the absence of a president of the republic; he is the head of power who is entrusted with the responsibility of calling for government consultations, issuing decrees to form a government, signing laws and decrees, and thus regulating the work of institutions,” the statement read, calling for full compliance with the constitution, which stipulates in Articles 73, 74, and 75 that the Council should meet immediately by virtue of the law and elect a head of state prior to any other measures. The Kataeb Party’s statement then affirmed that its deputies will not participate in any parliamentary activity that isn’t under the constitution.

LF says won't attend parliament session unless it's for president election
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
Lebanese Forces bloc MP Ghassan Hasbani stressed Tuesday that “amid the presidential vacuum, parliament can only convene to elect a president.”Underscoring the LF’s “permanent keenness on accountability with all its forms and mechanisms,” Hasbani announced that his party will not attend a Wednesday parliamentary session dedicated to referring the file of suspected violations in the telecom sector to the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers. “When all parties shoulder their responsibilities and elect a president, which must take place as soon as possible, legislative and executive life can return to normal,” the lawmaker added.

Ministers say decrees of Monday session may create new row
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
The signatures that the decrees issued in Monday’s cabinet session need might lead to a new dispute between the Free Patriotic Movement and the rest of the government parties, ministerial sources said. “Will (caretaker) PM (Najib) Mikati settle for the signatures of the ministers who attended the session, adopting a constitutional interpretation that says that the signatures of two thirds of ministers are enough to cover for the president’s signature?” the sources wondered in remarks to al-Binaa newspaper published Tuesday.
The sources reminded that the governments that existed following the tenures of each of Emile Lahoud and Michel Suleiman had established a “norm” stipulating that the signatures of “all ministers” are necessary to substitute for the president’s signature during a presidential void period. “What if the FPM ministers file an appeal against the decrees considering them unconstitutional from this angle?” the sources asked. “What if the Constitutional Council endorses the norm in light of the absence of a clear text?” the sources went on to say, noting that it is too early to say who won and who lost Monday’s round.

Jumblat sues Judge Aoun over 'WikiLeaks' tweet
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Jumblat on Tuesday filed a lawsuit against Mount Lebanon Prosecutor Judge Ghada Aoun over a tweet alleging that Swiss banks had frozen accounts belonging to Jumblat and other Lebanese political figures. State Prosecutor Judge Ghassan Oueidat referred the lawsuit to the general commission of the Court of Cassation based on the complaint that had been filed by Speaker Nabih Berri and others over the same tweet. Higher Judicial Council chief Judge Suheil Abboud meanwhile received the lawsuit to take the necessary legal measures. Aoun had published a list of names of Lebanese officials who allegedly have frozen accounts in Switzerland, citing “WikiLeaks” as a source. She captioned the list with a call for the mentioned politicians to lift secrecy off their accounts, "for the sake of transparency." "I do not know how true this information is, but why don't they disclose their accounts in the Swiss banks," Aoun said. The name of Jumblat ranks ninth on the list with an alleged $4.6 billion. Experts have argued that the sums of money that the alleged accounts contain are totally unrealistic seeing as major depositors tend to put their money in several accounts. Others have stressed that the alleged information has not been published by WikiLeaks.

Finance committee calls for exchange rate correction, salary taxes review
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
The Finance and Budget parliamentary committee, headed by MP Ibrahim Kanaan, convened Tuesday to discuss circulars and decisions issued by Finance Minister Youssef Khalil. After listening to the minister, the committee decided to delay the implementation of two salary taxes resolutions. "Resolutions 686 and 687 will be reevaluated, in a way that secures people's interests," Kanaan said after the session. He added that the committee does not support the retroactive effect on salary taxes, and called for adopting an acceptable and fair exchange rate.

FPM MP lashes out at Mikati-Shiite Duo 'doika'
Naharnet/December 07, 2022
MP Salim Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement on Monday blasted caretaker PM Najib Mikati for holding a meeting for the caretaker cabinet despite the FPM’s boycott and rejection, noting that Mikati “should have formed a cabinet” in the five months that followed his appointment as PM-designate. Ridiculing Mikati’s argument that the session was held for humanitarian reasons related to cancer and dialysis patients, Aoun said that “he whose heart is this tender should have formed a government throughout five months.”“It seems that we are heading to the approach of challenge and provocation,” the MP added, in an interview on al-Jadeed TV. “PM Mikati, those behind him and those who agree with him must realize the gravity of what happened today, which is considered hegemony over power, and the previous troika (Elias Hrawi, Nabih Berri, Rafik Hariri) is better than the Mikati-(Shiite) Duo ‘doika,’’” Aoun said. Moreover, the lawmaker warned that the issue is “not a joke.” “This file will have very major repercussions and the danger lies in the fact that we have broken something very dear to the hearts of half of the Lebanese, which is partnership,” Aoun added. “This government does not enjoy parliament’s confidence and there is no conformity to the National Pact in terms of Christian representation. Let us imagine what would have happened had the issue been in reverse,” the legislator said. Mikati had argued that the caretaker cabinet needed to approve urgent matters, including a decree related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis patients. The FPM has meanwhile repeatedly warned against holding cabinet sessions amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack on the president’s powers.

LGBTQ people in Lebanon: There’s no protection, but there’s existence
Associated Press/December 07, 2022
Throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds, either government neglect or outright hostility toward LGBTQ people, said Rasha Younes, a senior researcher with Human Rights Watch who investigates anti-LGBTQ abuses in the Middle East and North Africa. In some countries, apparent advances for LGBTQ people have been followed by pushbacks. Lebanon is an example. Over recent years, its LGBTQ community was widely seen as the most vibrant and visible in the Arab world, with advocacy for greater rights by some groups, and gay bars hosting events such as drag shows. Yet many in the community have been reeling from a wave of hostility this year that included an Interior Ministry ban on events described as aiming to promote “sexual perversion.” Online, some people have railed against Pride events, at times citing religious beliefs, both Muslim and Christian, to denounce LGBTQ activism. Someone posted an image of a knife slicing through a rainbow flag. At one point, security force members showed up at the Beirut office of the LGBTQ-rights organization Helem, executive director Tarek Zeidan said. Some LGBTQ activists called for a protest, distributing an invitation that said, “We will continue to love and to live as we wish.” But the demonstration was postponed, with organizers citing safety concerns. The crackdown has rattled LGBTQ people already straining due to Lebanon’s economic crises, which activists say have disproportionately fueled unemployment and homelessness in vulnerable groups. In November, activist groups reported with relief that the Interior Ministry’s ban on LGBTQ events had been suspended. “We are on the battlefield and part of the conversation,” said Zeidan. “In Lebanon, the conversation is fiercely being debated. In other parts of the region, the conversation has been completely quenched.” Sahar Mandour, Amnesty International’s researcher on Lebanon, elaborated. “There is a space. We have organizations. Nightlife exists,” Mandour said. “But it’s always under negotiation, where and when. There’s no protection, but there’s existence.”In Turkey, which is overwhelmingly Muslim, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has shown increasing intolerance toward any expression of LGBTQ rights, banning Pride marches and suppressing the display of rainbow symbols. Among Arab nations, most explicitly outlaw gay sex, including Qatar. It has faced intense international scrutiny and criticism before and during the World Cup over rights issues, including questions on whether LGBTQ visitors would feel safe and welcome. Other Arab countries, such as Egypt, prosecute LGBTQ people under charges of immorality or debauchery. The situation is similar in Iraq; Human Rights Watch says lack of an explicit ban on gay sex there has not protected LGBTQ people from violence and discrimination, nor from occasional charges of immorality or public indecency. Looking ahead, leading LGBTQ-rights advocates salute the courage of activists trying to operate publicly in countries such as Lebanon and Tunisia. But they are not optimistic about major LGBTQ advances any time soon in most of the Arab and Muslim worlds. “In many countries, where civil society is not allowed, where there’s complete lack of rights and free association, activism cannot be viewed in the public realm,” Younes said. “People cannot protest or express support online for LGBTQ rights, so there’s total repression of LGBTQ rights.”Kevin Schumacher, whose current work focuses on advancing women’s rights in Afghanistan, spent seven years as Middle East and North Africa program coordinator for OutRight Action International, a global LGBTQ-rights organization.
“You can’t just talk about LGBTQ rights if the straight people are oppressed, if the women have no rights,” he said. “The discourse should be about bodily autonomy — the right over your body and decisions over your sexual rights, not specific to men, women, gay, straight."

Army Commander broaches Lebanese Army affairs with EU Ambassador
NNA/December 07, 2022
Lebanese Armed Forces Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Tuesday welcomed at his Yarzeh office European Union Ambassador to Lebanon, Ralph Tarraf, who visited him with an accompanying delegation. The pair discussed the best means to support the Lebanese army in light of the challenges it faces to maintain national security and stability.

American University of Beirut celebrates liberal education, peace, and hope on its 156th Founders Day
NNA/December 07, 2022
The American University of Beirut (AUB) celebrated the 156th anniversary since it was founded on December 3, 1866, this year with Mayor of Pafos Phedonas Phedonos as keynote speaker. The ceremony at AUB’s iconic Assembly Hall brought together students, staff, deans, and upper administration and included the traditional procession, awarding of student essay contest winners, and musical performances. “One thing that was true in 1866 and remains true today is that philanthropy remains a critical element of our impact and sustainability: from the original donors who made launching this university a reality, to the generous thousands who support us today, whether via our highly successful fundraisers, individual gifts, grants and scholarships from our partner foundations and supporting institutions, or through the many inspiring examples of empathy and humanity,” said AUB President Fadlo Khuri in his inauguration speech. The president added that AUB’s long history of philanthropic support is celebrated by organizing Giving Day on Founders Day as AUB’s whole community of alumni and friends around the world show their support for this institution and its ongoing mission to serve. Emphasizing AUB’s sense of responsibility and purpose, Khuri spoke about the founding of a new twin campus in Pafos, Cyprus, named the American University of Beirut – Mediterraneo, and its role in the transformation of higher education and continuity in the service of the region. For the essay contest for this year, the students were asked to study and select the qualities of the university they deemed most vital to preserve in order to ensure the sustainability, impact, and transformational influence of AUB. Three contest winners were awarded by the president. First place winner was Fadi Salaheddin, a MEPI - Tomorrow’s Leaders scholar from Syria in his senior year studying psychology and business administration. In his essay entitled “Where Free Minds Flourish,” he shares his personal experience, transformation, and journey as he navigates a holistic and engaging liberal arts education at AUB.
“AUB has been a force of change and liberation and has served and continues to serve the peoples of the region,” read Salaheddin. “Now the responsibility is even greater to include the different community members especially those who cannot afford an AUB education, to nurture freedom and plant the seeds of civic responsibility.”
Winning second place was Rudy Zalzal, a biology senior on the premedical track who wrote an essay titled “Words Taken to Heart: That they may have life and have it more abundantly.” In his essay, Rudy links the Berytus red of AUB’s updated brand identity to the soil of his grandfather’s land in the Beqaa and “its services to the ecosystem, its successes against a concatenation of crises, and the empowerment it gives to all forms of life.”Third place winner, Hussein Moussa, is a senior economics and applied mathematics student who for the second year in a row was among the top 3 winners of this contest. Hussein’s essay this year, titled “AUB Transcending…,” casts light on the opportunities of coexistence, inclusivity, and diversity offered at AUB, and the ways this institution transcends the shackles to reaching one’s full potential and accessing true liberal education. After a musical interlude played by AUB medical student Khalil Chahine, President Khuri introduced Mayor Phedonos who addressed the audience with a keynote speech about “Education as a pillar for peace and prosperity: The Eastern Mediterranean’s best hope.”“Here and now, passionate and committed, we must collectively promote university education throughout our region, provide the opportunity for such high-level achievement, open the doors to everyone,” he said. “If we can only manage to raise access to universities in our region by 15% in the coming years and promote excellence through high-level education in the production chain of innovation and entrepreneurship, then we shall indeed forge strong foundations of peace and prosperity.” “Your great contribution for the realization of a common vision. It will bear the fruit that will spread the seeds of peace and prosperity in the Eastern Mediterranean. We need them now more than ever. In marking this remarkable milestone, I share this belief with you. By joining forces, by sharing our knowledge and capabilities, we pave the road to long term prosperity. Peace and progress unto you. All the best for AUB. Here’s to the next century and a half,” added the mayor. The ceremony concluded with the Alma Mater and a recession that took the audience to AUB’s plaza in an ambiance of saxophone live music celebrating serving and giving.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2022
Confusion over Iran's religious police as women drop hijab
Associated Press/December 06/2022
Confusion over the status of Iran's religious police grew as state media cast doubt on reports the force had been shut down. Despite the uncertainty, it has appeared for weeks that enforcement of the strict dress code has been scaled back as more women walk the streets without wearing the required headscarf.
The mixed messages have raised speculation that Iran's cleric-run leadership is considering concessions in an attempt to defuse widespread anti-government protests that are entering the third month. The protests were sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained by the religious police.
Monday marked the start of another three-day nationwide strike called by protesters. In Tehran's Grand Bazaar, about a third of the shops were closed, witnesses said. In response, Iran's judiciary chief, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejehi ordered the arrest of anyone encouraging the strike or trying to intimidate shops into shutting down. The morality police, established in 2005, are tasked with enforcing Iran's restrictions on public behavior and strict dress codes — particularly on women, who are required to wear the hijab, or headscarf, and loose-fitting clothes. Outrage erupted after Amini's death in the force's custody in mid-September, after she was arrested for allegedly failing to meet the dress code. Since then, the protests have expanded into calls for the ouster of Iran's clerical rulers. On Saturday, Iran's chief prosecutor, Mohamed Jafar Montazeri, said the religious police "had been closed," in a report published by the semi-official news agency, ISNA. He was also quoted as saying that the government was reviewing the mandatory hijab law.
"We are working fast on the issue of hijab and we are doing our best to come up with a thoughtful solution to deal with this phenomenon that hurts everyone's heart," he said, without offering details. But late Sunday, Arabic-language state outlet Al-Alam issued a report suggesting Montazeri's comments had been misunderstood. The report said the religious police were not connected to the judiciary, to which Montazeri belongs. It underlined that no official has confirmed the closure of the religious police. It also pointed to Montazeri's further statement that "the judicial branch will continue its monitoring of behavioral reactions at the community level."The hard-line SNN.ir news website said the morality police "has not come to an end and has not closed." But it added that "its mechanism would possibly change, a point that was under discussion before the riots." The site is close to the Basij, the feared paramilitary force under the powerful Revolutionary Guard, which is dedicated to protecting Iran's cleric-led system.
The status of the force could not be confirmed. Officials have avoided comment. When asked about Montazeri's statement by journalists in Belgrade, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian gave no direct answer. Still, for weeks, fewer morality police officers have been seen in Iranian cities. Across Tehran, It has become common to see women walking the city's streets without wearing the hijab, particularly in wealthier areas — but also to a lesser extent in more traditional neighborhoods. At times, unveiled women walk past anti-riot police and Basiji forces. The anti-government demonstrations have shown few signs of stopping despite a violent crackdown in which, according to rights groups, at least 471 people were killed. More than 18,200 people have been arrested, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group monitoring the demonstrations. Protesters say they are tired of decades of social and political repression, including the dress code. Women have played a leading role in protests, stripping off their headscarf. Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said an informal relaxation of the hijab law may be the government's current policy. ''For the time being, rather than changing the hijab law, the Islamic Republic will most likely not enforce the law, in order to reduce tension with society,'' Alfoneh said. Meanwhile, residents said security was heightened in the Grand Bazaar on Monday, the first day of the strike. There have been two previous strikes in the Bazaar in solidarity with protesters. One shop owner who was open Monday said he had been warned by authorities not to join the strike after he shut down during a previous one. Others said they just can't afford to join in. "I cannot close my shop though I support the cause of the protests," said the owner of a headscarf shop, speaking on condition of anonymity for his safety.

Five protesters sentenced to death by Iran regime
Arab News/December 07, 2022
JEDDAH: Iran’s regime on Tuesday sentenced five people to death for allegedly killing a member of a paramilitary force affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Eleven others received prison sentences. The 13 men and three minors had been charged with killing Ruhollah Ajamian, a member of the Basij, a paramilitary volunteer branch of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard. The five sentenced to death Monday were charged by Iran’s Revolutionary Court, along with eight others. Three boys were charged by Iran’s Criminal Court. Judiciary spokesman Masoud Setayeshi provided no evidence to support any of the accusations in an official report. Officials did not disclose the identities of the 16. They said their sentences can be appealed, the longest being 25 years. The alleged killing took place In Karaj, near Tehran, on Nov. 12 when a group of men chased and attacked Ajamian with knives and stones, the regime claims. The sentencing comes amid months of anti-government demonstrations that have been violently suppressed by Iran’s security forces. The protests, now entering their third month, were sparked by the death in police custody of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was detained for allegedly violating the country’s strict dress code. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards on Tuesday arrested 12 people accused of being linked to overseas agents and planning “subversive action,” the elite force said. Tehran has accused Western intelligence services of fomenting the protests and seeking to instigate a civil war in Iran.

Israel Exercises Right to Self-Defense in Attack on Border Policeman
FDD/December 06/2022
Latest Developments
The killing of a Palestinian assailant by an Israeli border policeman, caught on camera, has drawn diverse responses. Israel is unbowed in asserting its right to self-defense, while the Palestinian Authority accused it of another “cold-blooded murder.” United Nations envoy Tor Wennesland voiced horror over what he described as a “scuffle” turned lethal.
Expert Analysis
“The West Bank has seen a surge of bloodshed due to Israel’s stepped-up security sweeps in response to the spree of terrorist attacks against Israelis this past spring. Israel’s priority is to protect its citizens. But it will be more important than ever for the Israeli government also to protect the legitimacy of its countermeasures. And to do so, it needs to explain quickly and accurately, when these incidents occur, that these security steps are legitimate responses to increased Palestinian terror.” – Mark Dubowitz, FDD CEO
“The adage of a picture being worth a thousand words has again fallen short in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There is clear footage of a man behaving in a manner that would have invited a lethal response from police anywhere on earth, yet Palestinian officials refuse to admit it. Israel was correct to stand by its officer, who prevented further bloodshed.” – Joe Truzman, Research Analyst at FDD’s Long War Journal
An Unprovoked Palestinian Attack
According to Israeli authorities, Friday’s incident near the flashpoint Hawara junction in the West Bank began with 22-year-old Ammar Mifleh slashing the face of a policeman in a patrol car, attempting to knife an Israeli couple in another car, and then blindsiding another policeman who gave chase. Bystander video showed Mifleh and the policeman — whose name has been barred from publication in Israel — grappling as two other Palestinians briefly try to intervene. Mifleh is seen repeatedly hitting the policeman in the face with one hand while holding the officer’s assault rifle with the other. Some 20 seconds later, the policeman, his face bloodied, draws a backup pistol and shoots Mifleh four times.
Israeli Leaders Unified in Defending Policeman
Israelis, including officials from the outgoing centrist government and their likely successors in the incoming nationalist-conservative coalition, praised the policeman for appropriate tactics that prevented Mifleh’s escalation of his rampage. But the Palestinians sought to cast the killing as an illegal resort to excessive force — a familiar refrain from the past seven years since the so-called “knife intifada” erupted, when they regularly disputed Israeli assertions that Israel had killed Palestinian assailants who were armed.
Rocket Fired from Gaza
A rocket was fired into Israel from Gaza on Saturday night, with no Palestinian factions claiming responsibility. It caused no damage but ended a relative lull in such launches. In addition, Israel struck a Hamas weapons manufacturing site, a tunnel, and later a military site in response to an anti-aircraft missile launched against Israeli fighter jets. So far, there is no indication the rocket fire was linked to the knife attack at the border.

Prisoner Swap With Ukraine Sees 60 Russian Soldiers Freed
Storyful/December 06, 2022
In a prisoner swap, 60 Russian and 60 Ukrainian soldiers were returned to their respective homelands on Tuesday, December 6, after being released from captivity, officials said. The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage of the 60 freed Russian soldiers on buses and said they would be taken to Moscow for treatment and rehabilitation in medical institutions. Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak said the returned Ukrainian POWs included 34 soldiers who had fought to defend Mariupol, with 14 of those associated with the Azovstal steel plant. Credit: Ministry of Defense of Russia via Storyful.

Russia blames Ukraine for 3rd drone strike on airbase in 2 days
Justin Klawans/The Week/December 06/2022
Attacks continued to batter Russian infrastructure on Tuesday, as another drone strike targeted an airfield in the country's Kursk region, Axios reported. This marks the third reported drone strike on a Russian military base in the past two days. "An oil storage tank caught fire near Kursk airfield as a result of a drone attack," Kursk regional Governor Roman Starovoit said, per Politico. "There were no casualties. The fire is being localized. All special services are working at the site." The airfield is reportedly about 60 miles from the Ukrainian border. The drone strike comes just one day after a pair of Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a pair of Russian military bases. The two bases, located in Russia's Saratov and Ryazan regions, were located about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. One of the bases attacked, Engels-2 air base, reportedly "housed strategic bombers that have previously been used to launch strikes on Ukraine and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons," Axios reported. While Russia said it had intercepted the drones, it confirmed that three service members had been killed by the falling debris, adding that a pair of bombers had also been severely damaged. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, though Russia has blamed them for all three. Politico noted that, if confirmed, the ability of Ukraine to target strategic sites within Russia would represent "a major evolution in the war."However, Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted a cryptic message seeming to confirm that Ukraine was behind the attacks.

Ukraine leader defiant as drone strikes hit Russia again
Associated Press/December 07, 2022
In a new display of defiance from Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to an eastern city near the front line Tuesday, while Russia reported that strategic sites inside the country were hit by drone attacks for a second day.
A fire broke out at an airport in Russia's southern Kursk region that borders Ukraine after a drone hit the facility, the region's governor said Tuesday. In a second incident, an industrial plant 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the Ukrainian border was also targeted by drones, Russian independent media reported, apparently missing a fuel depot at the site.
Federal authorities did not immediately blame Ukraine. But Tuesday's reported strikes were carried out a day after Moscow blamed Kyiv for unprecedented, similar attacks on two air bases deep inside Russia. The attacks on the Engels base in the Saratov region on the Volga River and the Dyagilevo base in the Ryazan region in western Russia were some of the most brazen inside Russia during the war. In the aftermath, Russian troops carried out another wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian territory struck homes and buildings and killed civilians.
Marking Ukraine's armed forces day, Zelensky traveled to the eastern Donetsk region Tuesday and vowed to push Russian forces out of all of Ukraine's territory. "Everyone sees your strength and your skill. ... I'm grateful to your parents. They raised real heroes," Zelensky said in a video address to Ukrainian forces from the city of the Sloviansk, a key Ukrainian stronghold in the east. Ukrainian officials have not formally confirmed carrying out the drone attacks, maintaining their apparent policy of deliberate ambiguity as they have done in the past when it comes to high-profile attacks on Russian targets. But presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak taunted Moscow in comments on Twitter.
"If something is launched into other countries' airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to the point of departure," Podolyak wrote. "The earth is round."
The attacks on Russian bases — more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the border with Ukraine — were deeply embarrassing and exposed the vulnerability of some of Russia's most strategic military sites, raising questions about the effectiveness of their air defenses. They also threatened a major escalation of the nine-month war. One of the airfields houses bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
Russian military bloggers once again took their anger online, criticizing the perceived lack of proper fortifications that allowed the attacks to happen. A Russian pro-war blogger posting on the Telegram channel "Milinfolive" on Monday hit out at Russian military leadership, alleging that incompetence and lack of proper fortifications at the airbases made the alleged Ukrainian drone strikes possible. Another blogger pointed to the reputational damage inflicted by the attacks.
Russia's Defense Ministry said three Russian servicemen were killed and four others wounded by debris, and that two aircraft were slightly damaged. The Engels base hosts Tu-95 and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers that have been involved in strikes on Ukraine. Dyagilevo houses tanker aircraft used for mid-air refueling.
In a daily intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, Britain's Defense Ministry said Russia was likely to consider the base attacks as "some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine."It said the bombers would likely be dispersed to other airfields. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian authorities will "take the necessary measures" to enhance protection of key facilities in view of the latest Ukrainian attacks.
Speaking in a conference call with reporters Tuesday, Peskov said that "the Ukrainian regime's course for continuation of such terror attacks poses a threat." Peskov reaffirmed that Russia sees no prospects for peace talks now, adding that "the Russian Federation must achieve its stated goals." Russia, meanwhile, maintained intense attacks on Ukrainian territory, shelling towns overnight near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that left more than 9,000 homes without running water, local Ukrainian officials said. The towns lie across the Dnieper river from the nuclear plant, which was seized by Russian forces in the early stages of the war. Russia and Ukraine have for months accused each other of shelling at and around the plant. The head of Ukraine's northern Sumy region, which borders Russia, said that Moscow launched over 80 missile and heavy artillery attacks on its territory. Governor Dmytro Zhyvytsky said the strikes damaged a monastery near the border town of Shalyhyne. Ukrainian air force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said the country's ability to shoot down incoming missiles is improving, noting there had been no recent reports of Iranian-made attack drones being used on Ukrainian territory. He refused to comment on damage caused at the two Russian air bases, adding: "We will have to wait for satellite photos and open-source information."

EU, Western Balkans to boost partnership amid Ukraine war
Associated Press/December 06/2022
European Union leaders and their Western Balkan counterparts worked to strengthen their partnership at a summit Tuesday as Russia's war in Ukraine threatens to reshape the geopolitical balance in the region. Even though their goal of joining the bloc remains a distant one, Albania, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia were given concrete signs that their future is within the EU instead of mere promises of eventual membership. European Council President Charles Michel, who jointly chaired the summit in Albania's capital Tirana, hailed it as a "symbolic meeting" that will cement their futures within Europe. As proof of the bloc's commitment, Michel underscored EU energy support to the region in light of the war's impact on supplies and prices, as well as a mobile telephone roaming charges agreement. "I am absolutely convinced that the future of our children will be safe and more prosperous with the Western Balkans within the EU, and we are working very hard in order to make progress," he told reporters. The EU last admitted a new member — Croatia, which is also part of the Balkans — in 2013. But since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, EU officials have been repeating that stepping up the bloc's engagement with the six nations is more crucial than ever to maintaining Europe's security. As Europe's relationship with Russia deteriorates further because of the war, tensions have also mounted in the Balkans and the EU wants to avoid other flashpoints close to its borders in a neighborhood that was torn by conflicts following the disintegration of Yugoslavia in the 1990s. "The war is sending shockwaves, it affects everybody, and especially this region," the EU's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said.
According to a draft of the declaration to be adopted at the summit, the EU will repeat "its full and unequivocal commitment to the European Union membership perspective of the Western Balkans" and call for an acceleration of accession talks with the incumbents.
In return, the EU expects full solidarity from its Western Balkans partners and wants them fully aligned with its foreign policies.
That particular point has been problematic with Serbia, whose president, Aleksandar Vucic, claims he wants to take Serbia into the European Union but has cultivated ties with Russia. Although Serbia's representatives voted in favor of various U.N. resolutions condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Vucic has refused to explicitly condemn Moscow. His country has not joined Western sanctions against Russia over the war. "The Western Balkans have decided to embark on the European path, this is a two-way street," Borrell said. "And we also expect the region to deliver on key reforms, and certainly to show the will to embrace the European Union's ambition and spirit. Many do, but we see also hesitations."European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen also warned of China's growing influence in the Western Balkans. "We notice very clearly that the Ukraine war is not only Russia's cruel war against Ukraine, but also a question of whether autocracies and the law of the strongest will prevail. Or whether democracy and the rule of law will prevail," Von der Leyen said. "And this struggle is also noticeable in the Western Balkans. Russia is trying to exert influence, China is trying to exert influence."
The EU remains the Western Balkans' main trade partner, accounting for over two-thirds of the region's total trade, according to the bloc's data. "We are the closest partner and that is why the discussion is also about you having to decide which side you are on," the Commission president said.
Although the progress of the six nations toward EU membership had stalled recently, there has been some progress over the past few months. This summer, the EU started membership negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia following years of delays. And Bosnia moved a small step closer on its path to joining the bloc when the commission advised member countries in October to grant it candidate status despite continuing criticism of the way the nation is run. Kosovo has only started the first step and said it would apply for candidate status later this month. "We need the EU to move from words to deeds," said Kosovo president Vjosa Osmani. To help households and businesses weather the impact of Russia's war on energy and food security, the EU has earmarked one billion euros in grants to the Western Balkans, hoping the money will encourage double the investment.
Leaders also discussed migration issues that remains one of Europe's biggest concerns in light of the number of migrants trying to enter the bloc without authorization via the Western Balkans, notably through Serbia. The EU's border agency Frontex said it had detected more than 22,300 attempted entries in October, nearly three times as many as a year ago. Around 500 Frontex officers are working along the EU's borders with Balkan nations but staff will soon be deployed inside the region itself. One cause of the movements is that Serbia, which wants to join the EU, has not aligned its visa policies with the bloc. People from several countries requiring visas to enter the bloc arrive in Serbia without such paperwork then slip through. Many from Burundi, Tunisia, India, Cuba and Turkey enter the EU this way.

Russian Cruise Missiles Were Made Just Months Ago Despite Sanctions
John Ismay/The New York Times/December 06/2022
Some of the cruise missiles that Russia launched at Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure in late November were manufactured months after the West imposed sanctions intended to deprive Moscow of the components needed to make those munitions, according to a weapons research group. Experts examined remnants of Kh-101 cruise missiles found in Kyiv, the capital, after an attack Nov. 23 that knocked out electricity and shut down water systems in large areas of the country. One of the missiles was made this summer, and another was completed after September, markings on the weapons show, according to a report released by investigators Monday. That Russia has continued to make advanced guided missiles such as the Kh-101 suggests that it has found ways to acquire semiconductors and other materiel despite the sanctions or that it had significant stockpiles of the components before the war began, one researcher said. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times. The findings are among the most recent by Conflict Armament Research, an independent group based in Britain that identifies and tracks weapons and ammunition used in wars. A small team of its researchers arrived in Kyiv just before the attack at the invitation of the Ukrainian security service. In four previous research trips to Kyiv since the invasion, the investigators found that almost all of the advanced Russian military gear they examined — including encrypted radios and laser range finders — was built with Western semiconductors.
The investigators were unable to determine whether the Kh-101 remnants they studied were from missiles that reached their targets and exploded or were intercepted in flight and shot down.
The Kh-101 missiles were marked with a 13-digit numerical sequence. Investigators said they believe that the first three digits represent the factory where the missile was made, followed by another three-digit code indicating which of two known versions of the Kh-101 it is and two digits indicating when it was manufactured. A final string of five numbers is believed to denote the missile’s production batch and serial number. Piotr Butowski, a Polish journalist who has written extensively about Russia’s warplanes and military munitions, said the group’s numerical analysis matched up with his research.
“The first three digits are always ‘315’ — this is the production facility code,” Butowski said in an email. “Kh-101 missiles are developed and manufactured by the Raduga company in Dubna near Moscow.” In an interview before the report was released, a U.S. defense intelligence analyst said that Butowski’s analysis was consistent with the government’s understanding of how Russian missile producers — including those that make the Kh-101 — mark their weapons. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, said Russia was generally believed to be experiencing ammunition stockpile problems and may be using newer munitions alongside those that are much older. The analyst said that reports from Russia indicate that the government has ordered employees at munition plants to work additional hours in an effort to produce more ordnance, and that it is clear that Russia is now firing fewer long-range weapons such as cruise missiles at a smaller number of targets in Ukraine. Pentagon officials say Russia has fired thousands of long-range weapons including cruise missiles as well as short- and medium-range ballistic missiles at targets in Ukraine since the war began.
Whether Russia has depleted its inventory of older cruise missiles is unclear. But militaries often use older munitions first in combat because they typically make up a majority of a nation’s stockpile. On Nov. 23, the same day as the cruise missile attack on Kyiv, Lloyd Austin, the U.S. secretary of defense, told reporters that Russia’s supply of precision-guided weapons had been “significantly reduced” and that it would be more difficult for Russia to rapidly produce them “because of the trade restrictions they have on microchips and other types of things.” But Damien Spleeters, who led Conflict Armament Research’s investigation, said it would be difficult to say that the Russians are running short on weapons.“Those claims have been made since April,” he said, “so we’re just pointing to the fact that these cruise missiles being made so recently may be a symptom of that, but it’s not a certainty.”
© 2022 The New York Times Company

The EU price cap on Russian oil is already disrupting the market - tankers are piling up off Turkey after Ankara demands insurance paperwork
Business Insider/Huileng Tan/December 06/2022
The EU's price cap on Russian crude and its ban on seaborne Russian crude kicked in Monday.
Oil tankers have begun piling-up off Turkish shores, as Ankara demands proof of insurance coverage.
Shipping insurers rejected the request, as Turkey's asking for coverage that could expose them to a breach of sanctions.
A European Union price cap on Russian oil kicked in on Monday and it's already causing shipping disruption — oil tankers are piling up off the coast of Turkey as Ankara is demanding paperwork that the vessels are fully insured, according to the Financial Times.
The pile-up comes just as an EU price cap of $60 a barrel price cap for Russian crude kicked in. As 90% of the world's shipping insurance is provided by a group largely based in Europe, the aim is to curb Russia's oil revenue by limiting how much coverage the insurers can provide — that's because only those vessels carrying cargo priced below the EU cap can access Western maritime insurance. But the Turkish government wants full insurance coverage for the ships — resulting in a standoff and traffic jam of 19 crude oil tankers waiting to cross Turkish waters, according to the FT which cites ship brokers, oil traders, and satellite tracking services. In a notice issued on November 16, Turkey's government is insisting on documentation of shipping insurance coverage "under any circumstances" — even when the ships breach sanctions "whether knowingly and intentionally or unknowingly and unintentionally", according to a statement posted on Monday by Gard, a Norwegian shipping insurer that covers half of the global merchant fleet. Such requirements go beyond general information that is usually contained in a letter of entry for the ships, so the International Group of P&I Clubs — the protection and indemnity providers which represents a group of shipping insurers — has assessed that it "should not issue such a letter" to ships. "Issuing a confirmatory letter under these circumstances would expose the Club to a breach of sanctions under EU, UK and US law," according to the statement. The International Group of P&I Clubs is negotiating with the Turkish government. This standoff in turn has affected traffic around the Turkish straits of Bosphorus and Dardanelles as they connect exports from Russia's Black Sea ports to global markets. The first ship to arrive at the location has been waiting since November 29, the FT reported.
Turkey's ministry of transport and infrastructure did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment sent outside regular business hours. Moscow, on its part, has said it would not sell its crude oil under the $60 a barrel level, with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak calling the price cap an "interference" that could cause "destabilization, shortages of energy resources and reduction of investment" in the market, according to TASS, the state-owned news agency. "It may be applied not only to oil but to other products on the market, and not only to Russia but to other countries as well," Novak said on Sunday. US West Texas Intermediate oil futures were up 0.8% at $77.55 a barrel at 10.14 p.m. ET Monday, while international Brent crude oil futures were 0.8% higher at $83.36 a barrel.

Moscow and other Russian cities are scaling back or canceling New Year parties to spend the money attacking Ukraine
Sophia Ankel/Business Insider/December 06/2022
Russia's military is still struggling with a number of problems on the frontlines in Ukraine.
As a result, some Russian cities have canceled or scaled down their New Year's celebrations.
Moscow is still holding a New Year celebration — but it will not include fireworks, its mayor said.
Several Russian cities are axing New Year celebrations to redirect funds to the Russian military as it continues to struggle in Ukraine, according to multiple reports. Officials in Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl, Kaluga, Nizhny Novgorod, Siberia's Tomsk region, and the Republic of Sakha have called off their celebrations, The Telegraph reported. Complaints in Russia are widespread that soldiers on the front lines lack proper equipment, compelling officials to avoid lavish displays at home. Dmitry Denisov, the mayor of Kaluga — a city in the western part of Russia — said on social media that he had canceled all New Year's Eve concerts, fireworks, and decorations. "We will direct all these freed-up funds to supporting the mobilized Kaluga residents," he said, according to The Telegraph. "Our men must be adequately equipped, better than the standard provision demands." Vladimir Mazur, the governor of Tomsk, said there should be no "corporate" New Year's parties for officials, but that children "cannot be left without holidays and gifts," the Evening Standard reported. In Russia, gifts are commonly given on January 1, several days before most Russians mark Christmas on January 6 in keeping with the Orthodox calendar. In Moscow, Mayor Sergey Sobyanin said the capital would hold a toned-down celebration, forgoing the usual firework show and mass concert. There would still be events and celebrations, he said, with a portion of profits diverted to the military. In September, Moscow officials were criticized for holding a lavish firework display to celebrate the city's 875th anniversary. A spokesperson for the Kremlin did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has become increasingly unpopular. Some Russian activists last week accused him of spending billions on Russia's military while many of them freeze back home, The Daily Beast reported. "They take young men—the only breadwinners—away and send them back in coffins. The guys freeze on the front, get sick, die while their families live in poverty," Valentina Melnikova, an activist with the Soldiers' Mothers Committee, told The Beast.

Ukraine leader defiant as drone strikes hit Russia again
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)/December 06/2022
Drones struck inside Russia’s border with Ukraine Tuesday in the second day of attacks exposing the vulnerability of some of Moscow’s most important military sites, observers said. Ukrainian officials did not formally confirm carrying out drone strikes inside Russia, and they have maintained ambiguity over previous high-profile attacks. But Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak taunted Moscow in comments on Twitter, and Britain’s Defense Ministry said Russia was likely to consider the attacks on Russian bases more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the border with Ukraine as “some of the most strategically significant failures of force protection since its invasion of Ukraine.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russian authorities will “take the necessary measures” to enhance protection of key facilities. Russian bloggers who generally maintain contacts with officials in their country’s military criticized the lack of defensive measures. “If something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to the point of departure,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak taunted Moscow in comments on Twitter. “The earth is round.”
A fire broke out at an airport in Russia’s southern Kursk region that borders Ukraine after a drone hit the facility, the region’s governor said Tuesday. In a second incident, an industrial plant 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the Ukrainian border was also targeted by drones, which missed a fuel depot at the site, Russian independent media reported. “They will have less aviation equipment after being damaged due to these mysterious explosions,” said Yurii Ihnat, spokesman for the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. “This is undoubtedly excellent news because if one or two aircraft fail, then in the future, some more aircraft may fail in some way. This reduces their capabilities.”
Moscow blamed Kyiv for unprecedented attacks on two air bases deep inside Russia on Monday. The attacks on the Engels base in the Saratov region on the Volga River and the Dyagilevo base in the Ryazan region in western Russia were some of the most brazen inside Russia during the war.
In the aftermath, Russian troops carried out another wave of missile strikes on Ukrainian territory struck homes and buildings and killed civilians, compounding damage done to power and other infrastructure over weeks of missile attacks. Approximately half of households in the Kyiv region remain without electricity, the regional governor said Tuesday, while authorities in the southern Odesa say they have managed to restore power to hospitals and some vital services. In a new display of defiance from Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to an eastern city near the front line. Marking Ukraine’s Armed Forces Day, Zelenskyy traveled to the eastern Donetsk region and vowed to push Russian forces out of all of Ukraine’s territory. “Everyone sees your strength and your skill. ... I’m grateful to your parents. They raised real heroes,” Zelenskyy said Tuesday in a video address to Ukrainian forces from the city of Sloviansk, a key Ukrainian stronghold in the east. The Tu-141 Strizh (Swift) drone entered service with the Soviet air force in the 1970s and was designed for reconnaissance duties. It can be fitted with a warhead that effectively turns into a cruise missile.
Unlike modern drones, it can only stay in the air for a limited amount of time and fly straight to its designated target.
Its outdated technology makes it easily detectable by modern air defense systems and easy to shoot down. Another Soviet-built drone in the Ukrainian armed forces’ inventory, the Tu-143 Reis (Flight) has a much shorter range of about 180 kilometers (about 110 miles). A Russian pro-war blogger posting on the Telegram channel “Milinfolive” on Monday hit out at Russian military leadership, alleging that incompetence and lack of proper fortifications at the airbases made Ukrainian drone strikes possible. Russia’s Defense Ministry said three Russian servicemen were killed and four others wounded by debris, and that two aircraft were slightly damaged. Pro-Kremlin political analyst Sergei Markov said the strikes “have raised questions about security of Russian military air bases.” The Engels base hosts Tu-95 and Tu-160 nuclear-capable strategic bombers that have been involved in strikes on Ukraine. Dyagilevo houses tanker aircraft used for mid-air refueling. In a daily intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, Britain’s Defense Ministry said the bombers would likely be dispersed to other airfields. Speaking in a conference call with reporters Tuesday, Peskov said that “the Ukrainian regime’s course for continuation of such terror attacks poses a threat.”Peskov reaffirmed that Russia sees no prospects for peace talks now, adding that “the Russian Federation must achieve its stated goals.”Russia, meanwhile, maintained intense attacks on Ukrainian territory, shelling towns overnight near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that left more than 9,000 homes without running water, local Ukrainian officials said. The towns lie across the Dnieper River from the nuclear plant, which was seized by Russian forces in the early stages of the war. Russia and Ukraine have for months accused each other of shelling at and around the plant. The head of Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, which borders Russia, said that Moscow launched over 80 missile and heavy artillery attacks on its territory. Governor Dmytro Zhyvytsky said the strikes damaged a monastery near the border town of Shalyhyne. Ihnat, the Ukrainian air force spokesman, said the country’s ability to shoot down incoming missiles is improving, noting there had been no recent reports of Iranian-made attack drones being used on Ukrainian territory.

Russian Officials Fear Deserter on the Run Just Went Full Rambo With a Machine Gun
Allison Quinn/The Daily Beast/December 06/2022
A suspected Russian deserter dressed in full camouflage and a ski mask opened fire on police officers in Russia’s Rostov region on Tuesday, sparking frantic calls for residents to take cover indoors as a manhunt was underway. The incident—just the latest evidence of Vladimir Putin’s flailing war beginning to blow up within Russian borders—occurred in Novoshakhtinsk, just 12 miles or so from the border with Ukraine. Law enforcement sources cited by Russia’s TASS news agency and Komsomolskaya Pravda identified the gunman as a deserter, without giving further details. The disgruntled gunman was hiding out in a wooded area like Syvester Stallone’s troubled Vietnam veteran in the original Rambo movie. Mash reported that he came from the direction of the border with Ukraine before opening fire on police officers using a machine gun. The two officers were injured, with one of them hospitalized, according to local authorities. Routes into and out of the city have been blocked off while security services hunt for the gunman. Residents have also been urged to remain indoors and lock their doors, local media reported. The Russian Telegram channel Baza reported that police first noticed the man while they were conducting an investigation into a missing person nearby. As they approached him, he opened fire. Novoshakhtinsk is home to a key border checkpoint between Ukraine’s occupied Luhansk and Rostov-na-Donu in Russia. Just over the border in Ukraine, hundreds of Russian soldiers who refused to fight have forcibly been held in basements and cold garages in recent months, according to human rights groups and family members who’ve spoken to independent Russian outlets. Attacks continued to batter Russian infrastructure on Tuesday, as another drone strike targeted an airfield in the country's Kursk region, Axios reported. This marks the third reported drone strike on a Russian military base in the past two days. "An oil storage tank caught fire near Kursk airfield as a result of a drone attack," Kursk regional Governor Roman Starovoit said, per Politico. "There were no casualties. The fire is being localized. All special services are working at the site." The airfield is reportedly about 60 miles from the Ukrainian border. The drone strike comes just one day after a pair of Ukrainian drones reportedly targeted a pair of Russian military bases. The two bases, located in Russia's Saratov and Ryazan regions, were located about 300 miles from the Ukrainian border. One of the bases attacked, Engels-2 air base, reportedly "housed strategic bombers that have previously been used to launch strikes on Ukraine and are capable of carrying nuclear weapons," Axios reported. While Russia said it had intercepted the drones, it confirmed that three service members had been killed by the falling debris, adding that a pair of bombers had also been severely damaged. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks, though Russia has blamed them for all three. Politico noted that, if confirmed, the ability of Ukraine to target strategic sites within Russia would represent "a major evolution in the war." However, Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted a cryptic message seeming to confirm that Ukraine was behind the attacks.

Macron seeks to reassure over French power cut fears
Agence France Presse/December 06/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday called growing fears of winter electricity outages overblown, even as authorities prepare for possible targeted power cuts if consumption is not reduced and cold snaps strain the grid. France's network is under pressure as state power company EDF races to restart dozens of nuclear reactors taken down for maintenance or safety work that has proved more challenging than originally thought. Reduced gas exports from Russia as it cuts supplies in retaliation for Western sanctions over the Ukraine war have added to worries that gas-burning power plants might have to trim production. "Stop it -- we're a major power, we have a great energy system, and we're going to get through this winter despite the war," Macron told reporters ahead of an EU/Balkans summit in Tirana, Albania. "This debate is absurd, the role of the public authorities is not to breed fear," he added. Macron had already urged people "not to panic" over the weekend, saying power cuts could be avoided if overall usage this winter was reduced by 10 percent. But last week the government told local officials to begin preparing contingency plans in case targeted cuts were needed, possibly including closing schools until midday. France is usually one of Europe's largest electricity exporters thanks to its network of 56 nuclear reactors, which supply around 70 percent of its electricity needs. But this winter it will be a major importer of power from Britain, Germany, Spain and other neighboring countries, grid operator RTE said last week. RTE's chief Xavier Piechaczyk told Franceinfo radio that the risk of power cuts could not be excluded, "but it will essentially depend on the weather." Normally France's 56 nuclear reactors can produce 61 gigawatts but with around half of the fleet offline, just 43 gigawatts are expected to be available by end-January, he said. And while France has the capacity to import up to 15 gigawatts, winter usage can surge to 90 gigawatts at peak hours, prompting the calls for energy "restraint" such as lowering thermostats and using washing machines and other appliances at night. "Rule number one is that nothing is inevitable... Together we have the capacity to avoid any risk of cuts, no matter how the winter turns out," government spokesman Olivier Veran told France 2 television on Tuesday.

Al Jazeera submits slain journalist's case to ICC
Naharnet/December 06/2022
TV network Al Jazeera submitted the case of slain journalist Shireen Abu Akleh to the International Criminal Court on Tuesday, saying she was killed by Israeli forces. The Qatar-based channel said it had "unearthed new evidence" on the death of the Palestinian-American, shot while covering an Israel army raid in Jenin on May 11. Any person or group can file a complaint to the ICC prosecutor for investigation, but the Hague-based court is under no obligation to take on such cases. Al Jazeera said its submission highlighted "new witness evidence and video footage (that) clearly show that Shireen and her colleagues were directly fired at by the Israeli Occupation Forces." "The claim by the Israeli authorities that Shireen was killed by mistake in an exchange of fire is completely unfounded," the channel said. An AFP journalist saw a lawyer representing Al Jazeera's case entering the ICC's headquarters to hand over their submission. The ICC last year launched a probe into war crimes in the Palestinian territories, but Israel is not an ICC member and disputes the court's jurisdiction. Israel said it would not cooperate with any external probe into Abu Akleh's death. "No one will investigate IDF (Israeli military) soldiers and no one will preach to us about morals in warfare, certainly not Al Jazeera," Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said in a statement. The Israeli army conceded on September 5 that one of its soldiers had likely shot Abu Akleh after mistaking her for a militant.
The veteran reporter, who was a Christian, was wearing a bulletproof vest marked "Press" and a helmet when she was shot in the head in the Jenin refugee camp, a historic flashpoint in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. After receiving complaints from individuals or groups, the ICC prosecutor decides independently what cases to submit to judges at the court. Judges decide whether to allow a preliminary investigation by the prosecutor, which can then be followed by a formal investigation, and if warranted, charges. In the majority of cases such complaints do not lead to investigations, according to the ICC.

China says U.S. nuclear weapons report is speculation
BEIJING (Reuters)/December 06/2022
China's defence ministry on Tuesday dismissed a Pentagon report about the pace of its nuclear weapons programme as unfair "gesticulation" and speculation. The Pentagon said in a report last month that China would likely have a stockpile of 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035 if it continues with its current pace of its nuclear buildup. The figure underscores mounting U.S. concerns about China's intentions for its expanding nuclear arsenal, even though the projections do not suggest China is accelerating the pace of its already-brisk warhead development. Responding to the report, China's defence ministry said the United States was "gesticulating and absurdly guessing about the modernisation of China's nuclear forces". The United States should reflect on its own nuclear policy, especially as it has the world's largest nuclear arsenal, the ministry added. The United States was "vigorously" developing and seeking to deploy front-line tactical nuclear weapons, had reduced the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons and was conducting nuclear proliferation through its security partnership with Britain and Australia, it said. "It should be emphasised that China firmly pursues a self-defence nuclear strategy, always adheres to the policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons at any time or under any circumstance, and maintains its nuclear forces at the lowest level required by national security." The United States has a stockpile of about 3,700 nuclear warheads, of which about 1,740 were deployed, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) think-tank. The Chinese ministry said it was the United States that was the "biggest trouble maker" when it came to global security. "It has fanned the flames for its own self-interest, creating divisions and confrontation in the world, and bringing turmoil and disasters wherever it goes," the ministry said.

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2022
Biden Is Betraying Freedom-loving Protesters in China and Iran
Con Coughlin/Gatestone Institute/December 6, 2022
In one demonstration at Beijing's Tsinghua University earlier this week, students were recorded chanting the slogan "Democracy, rule of law and freedom of speech."
Yet, rather than supporting the brave protesters who are defying the tyranny of their Communist masters, the Biden administration appears reluctant to comment on the turmoil. President Joe Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have all avoided commenting on the unrest.
Biden's reticence about commentating on the disturbances in China may be explained by his recent three-hour meeting with Xi at the G20 summit in Indonesia, when the two leaders agreed to de-escalate tensions on contentious issues, such as Taiwan, as well as by a growing body of evidence that he appears to have been seriously politically compromised by lavish deals between "CCP-linked Individuals & Companies" and the Biden family.
Such craven conduct typifies the response of American officialdom to the malign rule of the ayatollahs, which has seen an estimated 500 Iranians killed -- including women and children -- during the regime's brutal repression of anti-government protests, with another 18,000 protesters taken into detention.
The Biden administration's unwillingness, moreover, to lend its support to anti-regime protesters in despotic states such as China and Iran is certainly short-sighted, as it encourages regime officials in the belief that they can act with impunity against their opponents.
At a moment when China and Iran, two of the world's most despotic regimes, are being consumed by waves of protests, the Biden administration's overly cautious approach is sending entirely the wrong signal to those campaigning for freedom and liberty in their respective countries. Pictured: People protest against the Chinese Communist Party's "zero-Covid" policy on November 28, 2022 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)
At a moment when China and Iran, two of the world's most despotic regimes, are being consumed by waves of protests, the Biden administration's overly cautious approach is sending entirely the wrong signal to those campaigning for freedom and liberty in their respective countries.
In what is being hailed as the largest anti-government protest movement China has experienced since the unrest in 1989 that culminated with the Tiananmen Square massacre, nearly all of China's major cities have witnessed large crowds taking to the streets to protest against the Communist Party's dictatorial rule.
The protests initially began in response to the deaths of ten people in a fire at an apartment block in Xinjiang province. The fires were blamed on Beijing's draconian "zero-Covid" policy, which has resulted in millions of Chinese suspected of being in contact with the virus being locked in their apartments for weeks on end.
Since then they have grown into a nationwide protest movement which increasingly is calling for radical changes in the way the country is governed rather than demanding an easing of the Covid restrictions.
Of particular concern for China's Communist rulers will be the prominent role the nation's students are playing in the disturbances, where they are protesting against the regime's restrictions on freedom of speech and heavy-handed political control.
In one demonstration at Beijing's Tsinghua University earlier this week, students were recorded chanting the slogan "Democracy, rule of law and freedom of speech."
The emergence of China's restless student population in the anti-government protests will be a matter of deep concern for the authorities, as students were in the vanguard of the 1989 pro-democracy movement that ultimately resulted in the Tiananmen Square massacre.
The Chinese authorities have worked hard to clamp down on student protests in the intervening decades, so the fact that the students are once more playing a central role in the unrest would be deeply disconcerting for the country's Communist masters.
It should also send a signal to US President Joe Biden that the position of his Chinese opposite number, Xi Jinping, is not as secure as he would like the outside world to believe. Only last month, Xi was awarded an unprecedented third term as leader at the Communist Party's 20th National Congress.
From Washington's perspective, the eruption of a protest movement that is directly challenging the Communist Party's autocratic rule should be seen as a positive development, as it demonstrates that there are significant political divisions in a country that has become America's main superpower rival.
Yet, rather than supporting the brave protesters who are defying the tyranny of their Communist masters, the Biden administration appears reluctant to comment on the turmoil. Biden, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have all avoided commenting on the unrest.
The "see no evil, hear no evil" approach of the Biden administration certainly contrasts sharply with that adopted by Beijing when the U.S. experiences its own political challenges. Following the storming of the US Capitol last year, commentators in the state-owned Chinese media indulged in a wave of mockery, comparing the violence with anti-government protests in Hong Kong and accusing Washington of hypocrisy.
Biden's reticence about commentating on the disturbances in China may be explained by his recent three-hour meeting with Xi at the G20 summit in Indonesia, when the two leaders agreed to de-escalate tensions on contentious issues, such as Taiwan, as well as by a growing body of evidence that he appears to have been seriously politically compromised by lavish deals between "CCP-linked Individuals & Companies" and the Biden family.
Iran is another country that is experiencing enormous political turmoil, but where American officials are also proving reticent to support the wave of anti-regime protests, as is evident from the craven behaviour of the US Soccer Federation (USSF) at the World Cup currently taking place in the Gulf state of Qatar.
Prior to America's game with Iran on Tuesday, the USSF's website briefly displayed Iran's national flag without the emblem representing the Islamic Republic. But after Tehran reacted furiously to the omission, which was taken as a gesture of support with anti-regime protesters in Iran, the USSF quickly deleted the graphic, reinstating the Islamic Republic's emblem.
Such craven conduct typifies the response of American officialdom to the malign rule of the ayatollahs, which has seen an estimated 500 Iranians killed -- including women and children -- during the regime's brutal repression of anti-government protests, with another 18,000 protesters taken into detention.
The Biden administration's unwillingness, moreover, to lend its support to anti-regime protesters in despotic states such as China and Iran is certainly short-sighted, as it encourages regime officials in the belief that they can act with impunity against their opponents.
This is a grave miscalculation, as the most effective way of challenging autocratic regimes such as those in power in China and Iran is to lend encouragement to those seeking to challenge the legitimacy of their rule.
For it is only when these regimes are forced to acknowledge they no longer enjoy the support of the people that they will ultimately be persuaded to undertake wholesale reforms.
*Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Shillman Journalism Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Will Bibi Make the Left’s Nightmares Come True? It’s Never Happened Before
Shany Mor and Einat Wilf/Haaretz/December 06/2022
Translated from Hebrew
Since the electoral upheaval of 1977, in which the possibility of a change in government in Israel became real for the first time, every elected government has been received with utter shock by the defeated side, which conjured up scenarios of horror and failure to come in the immediate aftermath of electoral defeat. But only two governments since 1977 have justified the nightmare scenarios illustrated by the other side: the Begin government of 1981 and the Rabin government of 1992. The Netanyahu governments have never justified the threat the defeated side attributed to them, especially after the 1996 and 2015 elections.
Many believed that the rise to power of Menachem Begin and Likud would lead to a war against the Arab armies and a crisis with the superpowers. Given that there were only six years between the previous two wars, the assumption was entirely reasonable. But apart from the trauma of the loss itself after three decades of uninterrupted rule by Labor, there was nothing in Begin and Likud’s leadership from 1977 to 1981 to justify the concerns of the old Labor guard. Begin’s first coalition included elements that still came from the old Israeli establishment, such as the liberal Dash party of Yigael Yadin and the ultimate symbol of “Israeliness,” Moshe Dayan, who left Labor to serve as Begin’s first Foreign Minister. In any case, Begin did not annex territories. Furthermore, not only was there no war, his was the government of the peace agreement with Egypt, the bombing of the reactor in Iraq, and increased funds to underprivileged neighborhoods.
In 1981, after Dayan’s death and Ezer Weizman’s resignation, there were no more elements from the old establishment in the coalition or in Likud itself. The right won its majority in a difficult and violent election campaign without parallel in the history of Israeli democracy, and the government that was formed set out to abandon its commitments under the Camp David Accords to pursue negotiations that would lead to autonomy for the Palestinians.
It was Begin’s short second term from 1981 to 1983, quite unlike the first, that realized the darkest nightmares of the old guard’s voters. These were the years of the disastrous invasion of Lebanon, the end of the autonomy talks, the rampant inflation that led to the collapse of symbolic fortress of Labor Zionism — the kibbutzim. These were also the years of the loosening of all restraints on the construction of settlements, and the expansion of the minimal exemption that Ben-Gurion granted to ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students into a blanket exemption that turned yeshivas into refuges from military enlistment and the State of Israel to the most generous benefactor there ever was to the world of unemployed Torah study. In these years, Begin and Likud did indeed change the face of the country and lead it in a direction that was further and further away from the vision of its founders. If there were any years when the lament “they stole our country” was justified, those were the years of the second term of Begin and Likud.
In this sense, Labor’s 1992 electoral victory is the mirror image of Likud’s in 1981.
Likud under Yitzhak Shamir came to the 1992 elections with no fighting spirit. Six years of unity governments with Labor without notable achievements attributed to Likud ministers or its clearly uncharismatic leadership did not benefit Likud’s status. Two years of a narrow right-wing government after the no-confidence crisis of 1990 were characterized by repeated crises with the American government, principally on the issue of the settlements, and helplessness in the face of the rising violence of the First Intifada. On the one hand, the absorption of the large aliyah from the USSR had not yet been credited to Shamir, and on the other hand, the intifada and the changes in the world after the collapse of the USSR caused Shamir to be perceived as obsolete.
Yitzhak Rabin was elected in 1992 to change Israel’s priorities from investing in the territories to investing in Israel proper. But from the point of view of the right, Rabin’s government went much further than shifting priorities and brought the right’s worst nightmares to fruition.
It gave the PLO international legitimacy just as the organization was facing collapse and was subject to a global boycott after supporting Saddam Hussein in the Gulf War. With the Oslo Accords, the government began an irreversible process of building an independent Arab political entity west of Jordan while committing to conduct future negotiations — including over Jerusalem — thereby closing the door on the dream of a “Greater Land of Israel” as it existed in the 1980s. Worse, despite all the talk of peace, the period was characterized by a number of murderous attacks against Israelis — although Baruch Goldstein was responsible for a heinous attack against Palestinians — that Israel had not known since the 1950s and perhaps even since the establishment of the state.
Along the way, there were many other governments that surprised, disappointed, and failed. But there were only two governments that actually justified the anxieties and concerns of the other side. What stands out is that Netanyahu’s governments, all of which, without exception, were greeted with tears by the defeated side, never implemented these nightmare scenarios, and sometimes even the opposite occurred.
The mourning after Netanyahu’s first victory in 1996 was especially heavy because it came against the background of Rabin’s assassination on the one hand, and the disappointment, or perhaps the denial of disappointment, from the Oslo process on the other. At the same time, in the 1996 government, Netanyahu was responsible for a significant decrease in terrorist attacks along with the continuation of the Oslo process, which he opposed. He also did what even Peres would not — and withdrew from Hebron. In the 2009 government, Netanyahu froze settlements, gave the Bar-Ilan speech, and removed most of the roadblocks in the territories erected during the Second Intifada, while reducing the number of attacks and victims. In the following government he conducted advanced negotiations with the Palestinians (where again the Palestinians were the ones who said no), and in the last government with Gantz, he agreed to an American proposal whose essence was the division of the country into two states (when again of course the Palestinians said no) and brought normalization agreements with four Arab states.
In all of his governments, including the one formed in 2015 that was considered extreme right-wing, Netanyahu, unlike any prime minister before him, except perhaps for Shamir, evinced a clear tendency to contain and de-escalate violence. His terms of office stand out as years of relative security in which the number of Jewish and Arab casualties from violent conflict was one of the lowest in the history of the conflict. In domestic matters, the years of Netanyahu’s rule were generally characterized by economic prosperity, the expansion of the circle of participants in the Israeli economy, and the expansion of the secular liberal space. For decades, the left has had alternating demons: Begin, Sharon, Lieberman, Bennett, the political success of each of whom was seen at the time as the end of Zionism. Today every one of them stars in one way or another in the gallery of heroes of the left. But Netanyahu remains a demon whose political victory instills an atmosphere of raging pessimism on the defeated side.
It is impossible to rule out the possibility that this time, the Netanyahu 2022 government, due to its reliance on the Religious Zionism faction in the Knesset (and especially on Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party) — which unlike Netanyahu, is not inclined to contain violence — and due to the expressed willingness to take sweeping measures to overturn Netanyahu’s trial, will be similar to the 1981 Begin government and will realize the nightmares of the defeated side. Even in the parable of the boy who cried wolf, the wolf eventually comes. Yet, given that the nightmares of each defeated side came true only once, and not during a Netanyahu government, it raises the question of whether it is truly justified to sound the alarm this time, or whether to allow for the possibility that it is, in fact, not justified.
*Shany Mor is an Adjunct Fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Einat Wilf served as a member of the Knesset from 2010-2013.

ريتشارد غولدبرغ/نيويورك بوست: لا ، إيران لم تلغي شرطة الأخلاق، بل خدعت الصحافة وإدارة بايدن
No, Iran didn’t ban morality police — it duped press, and Biden administration
Richard Goldberg/New York Post/December 06/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113893/%d8%b1richard-goldberg-no-iran-didnt-ban-morality-police-it-duped-press-and-biden-administration-%d8%b1%d9%8a%d8%aa%d8%b4%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%af-%d8%ba%d9%88%d9%84%d8%af%d8%a8%d8%b1/
For a few hours this past weekend, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism pulled off a global disinformation operation to undermine a popular revolt, falsely suggesting the regime in Tehran had moderated its position on women’s rights.
The truth: Iranian women are still subject to the oppression of a radical theocracy in Tehran, millions of Iranians want to see an end to the Islamic Republic of Iran and President Joe Biden needs to finally pick a side.
How did it happen? More than 11 weeks ago, the brutal killing of a young woman arrested for not properly wearing an Islamic head-covering set off what increasingly appears to be a national revolution in Iran — with more than 1,800 protests documented around the country and more on the way despite hundreds already murdered and thousands more detained by the regime.
Knowing that underground activists were urging a three-day national strike this week, state media ran a series of quotes from Iran’s chief prosecutor, which sent mixed signals about whether the mullahs would continue cracking down on women who do not wear a hijab according to the regime’s religious specifications.
By Sunday morning in the United States, the New York Times sent a breaking news alert declaring that Iran had abolished its so-called morality police. The Wall Street Journal soon followed. On CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Margaret Brennan opened her interview with Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying, “I want to start with some breaking news overnight out of Iran: They have abolished the morality police.”
Within minutes of the Sunday’s breaking news, Persian-speaking reporters took to Twitter to expose the regime’s gambit. Iran’s state television and its official Arabic-language channel soon denied the reports. A few hours later, Reuters filed a more carefully crafted story, clarifying that there was “no confirmation of the closure from the Interior Ministry which is in charge of the morality police” and that the chief prosecutor “was not responsible for overseeing the force.” Other outlets would soon follow.
As of today, the regime in Tehran has yet to pull back on a single element of its brutality and repression — whether it be targeted at women or millions of other Iranians, including minors.
Based on the convoluted statement of one official in a regime that bans all basic freedoms, including freedom of the press, Western reporters and editors irresponsibly pushed a misleading narrative designed by Tehran to undermine the people in the streets demanding freedom.
Fortunately, the ruse didn’t work. Thousands of businesses around Iran are now closed. Workers are on strike. Students are bringing upheaval to their schools. More and more people are joining the revolt.
Media criticism in this case is warranted, with the need to reassess how newsrooms cover deceitful and repressive dictatorships like Iran. But coverage of the Biden administration’s Iran policy must improve as well. The White House and State Department are trying to have it both ways — claiming support for the people of Iran while holding the door open to an economic bailout for their oppressors.
Blinken expressed solidarity with the protesters during his CBS interview Sunday. But in a separate appearance on CNN, Blinken was asked if nuclear negotiations with Iran were still ongoing. His response? “We continue to believe that ultimately diplomacy is the most effective way to deal with this, but that’s not where the focus is.”
In other words, an appeasement pact that would generate $274 billion for the regime in its first year — $1 trillion by 2030 — remains on the table for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to accept at a time of his choosing. Contrary to Biden’s pre-election declaration that he would “free Iran,” Blinken’s comment signals a willingness to sacrifice the Iranian people if their oppressors would agree to delay a nuclear weapon by a few short years — ignoring other potential options to achieve the same goal without paying Tehran’s extortion racket
How demoralizing to millions who might be contemplating joining the revolt. President Biden should be put to a choice: The Iranian people or their terror-sponsoring, anti-American oppressors. Maximum support for Iran’s new revolution starts with taking the nuclear deal off the table and working with European allies to restore UN sanctions on the regime. From there, Biden could authorize the provision of supplies, money, and intelligence to the protest movement — all with an explicit goal of precipitating the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Other active measures, including cyberattacks to disrupt security force crackdowns, could be considered, too.
The Islamic Republic is an enemy of the United States, directly responsible for the murders of hundreds of U.S. citizens and actively plotting to assassinate former officials. A regime that chants “Death to America” is now being challenged by people who honk their horns when Team USA defeats Iran in the World Cup. It’s a moment America has been waiting more than 40 years to see — one the Biden administration appears comfortable letting slip away.
*Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, served as a National Security Council official, deputy chief of staff to former US Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) and US Navy Reserve Intelligence Officer. He was sanctioned by Iran in 2020.
https://nypost.com/2022/12/05/iran-didnt-ban-morality-police-it-duped-press-and-biden-administration/

Iran’s domestic woes might accelerate international confrontation
Yossi Mekelberg/Arab News/December 06, 2022
It is now nearly three months since protests broke out in Iran following the death of a young woman in police custody, and protesters in the streets are holding their ground despite the regime’s brutality. The spontaneous and unprecedented protests indicate not only accumulated frustration and anger toward the regime in Tehran, but also a belief that this could be a turning point in relations between the Iranian people and their rulers, and possibly the end of that regime.
The current domestic upheaval is taking place concurrently with a stalemate in attempts to revive the nuclear deal, while clandestine — sometimes not so clandestine — hostilities are escalating between Iran and its enemies, notably Israel. One of the possible consequences of these volatile conditions is that, should the anti-regime movement persist and gain further momentum, Iran’s leadership might attempt to divert attention by pursuing a more aggressive foreign policy, which would also provide an excuse to tighten the screw on dissent at home with more brutality.
History provides many examples of political leaders who, when faced with domestic challenges to their authority, decide to initiate external conflict and exaggerate threats from state and nonstate actors in what is known as “diversionary conflict” to enhance their chances of survival. Such attempted distractions are driven either by the hope of achieving a rally-round-the-flag effect, which also gives an opportunity to suppress any opposition, or with the aim of providing an opportunity for the leadership to prove its competence and hence restore domestic support.
The regime in Tehran has repeatedly employed this survival strategy, as it enjoys very little support among its own people; hence, its aggressive actions in Yemen, its support for the murderous regime in Syria, its sponsorship of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its conflict with Israel all serve to justify its oppressive policies at home in its quest to maintain its hold on power.
One sign of this ramping up of aggression is that, despite good progress in negotiations earlier this year, there is increasing evidence that Tehran is not inclined to alter its behavior in order to secure the revival of a nuclear deal that the US would once more be party to and would lead to the removal of sanctions. By now, hardly anyone believes a deal is possible. Instead, the West, led by the US, has shifted its focus to supporting the Iranian people and piling the pressure on the regime to stop suppressing the rights of its own people.
It might be wishful thinking, naive, even premature, but it reflects a perception in the West that, for the first time since the 1979 revolution, there are forces within Iran that are willing and able to bring down the current regime, or at least extract considerable concessions from its much-weakened leadership. Moreover, Tehran is doing very little to help its cause by supplying deadly drones to Russia and therefore aligning itself with Moscow’s brutality in Ukraine and finding itself once again on the wrong side of history.
This general deterioration of the situation in Iran and its relations with the world at large also feeds into its relations with Israel, which are expected to worsen with the return of Benjamin Netanyahu to the prime minister’s office at the head of the most right-wing coalition government in the country’s history. This development brings a tangible risk of the friction between the two countries expanding and intensifying, with increased attacks on each other’s interests.
The general deterioration of the situation in Iran and its relations with the world at large also feeds into its relations with Israel.
Last month’s drone attack on an Israeli-owned oil tanker in the Arabian Gulf did not cause any loss of life or much damage, but it signaled Iran’s frustration with Israel’s ongoing strikes on weapons convoys sent from Iran to Hezbollah and on other Iranian targets in Syria and elsewhere. The attack on the tanker seemed to be in retaliation to a deadly Israeli strike on a convoy carrying fuel across the Iraqi border into Syria as part of the “war between the wars” that Israel has waged against Iran and its regional allies for years in its bid to stop Tehran’s aggression and its drive to regional hegemony.
Moreover, Iran’s attacks on tankers, particularly during a severe energy crisis, could easily transform bilateral hostilities into a wider confrontation with the West, especially if it affects the latter’s war effort against Russia.
Israeli strategists are still baffled over Iran’s nuclear military intentions. It is generally assumed that it is, by now, a nuclear threshold country or at least very close to it. Last month, Israel’s military intelligence chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva assessed that Iran “toys” with uranium enrichment to 90 percent — a level considered to be weapons-grade. Israel is certain about Iran’s technological ability to achieve nuclear breakthrough, but less so about whether its leaders are interested in crossing this international red line in a move that would doubtless lead to more sanctions and other forms of pressure from the international community, and most definitely from Israel.
According to the most recent International Atomic Energy Agency report, Iran has also been planning a massive expansion of its enrichment capacity by enriching uranium to 60 percent at a second plant, a level of enrichment which is regarded as not far away from weapons-grade. And some experts have already warned that Iran has enough 60 percent-enriched uranium to reprocess into fuel for at least one nuclear bomb.
In an interview last week, Netanyahu declared that his No. 1 priority was “to prevent Iran from annihilating us.” This will set the tone for the duration of the incoming Israeli government and, between the actual Iranian threat and Netanyahu’s own need to divert attention from his corruption trial, it will remain the joker in his pack as he presents himself as the defender of Israel against complete destruction by Iran.
Without diminishing the need to restrain and contain Iran’s regional adventurism, both nuclear and conventional, the reality of Iran and Israel soon being governed by leaderships that are rigid in their thinking and see their enmity in absolute terms is a danger to stability in the region. This will require the more stable regional and other international powers to ensure that this situation does not escalate into a full-blown war that drags in the entire Middle East.
• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg

Iran regime’s concessions meaningless unless they are applied
Hassan Al-Mustafa/Arab News/December 06/2022
The ongoing protests in many Iranian cities indicate a structural imbalance in the relationship between the ruling regime and a broad segment of the people. This includes some supporters of the revolution, who believe that the method of managing the crisis and interfering in people’s personal lives will lead to further social unrest, especially with the high rates of inflation and unemployment and the spiraling cost of living.
The killing of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, on Sept. 16 was not the beginning of the protest movement. Rather, it was preceded by labor movements of a purely economic nature. Now we see the wide sociocultural protests, which the ruling regime seeks to portray as a tool in the hands of the “enemies of the regime,” accusing external parties of working to direct and support them.
The Iranian political opposition, including Mojahedin-e-Khalq and radical separatist organizations that seek autonomy of an ethnic nature — as is the case with some Arab, Kurdish and Balochi factions — may have the desire to benefit from the broad popular movements, but it cannot lead or direct them. The most it can do is benefit from them in the media or involve some armed elements in order to stir up riots in certain areas, which are practices rejected by the overwhelming majority of Iranians, who object to the behavior of the ruling regime and the armed opposition at the same time.
So, the sociocultural movement, which is based on the belief in the individual’s right to free choice, has transcended the classical narrative of power and opposition and now has its own logic and slogans, which include the desire to be free from the authority of the clergy and for Iranians to lead a modern, civil lifestyle without any commandments.
When the Iranians rebelled in 1979 and before, and the widespread demonstrations denouncing the regime of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi took place, the goals that moved them were not religious and did not stem from a desire to establish a jurisprudential rule that would seize power and replace the civil ruler. Rather, people were protesting against political and economic practices, which they believed the shah was unfair about. Therefore, people took to the streets to demand reform, freedom and the consolidation of the rule of the people.
Leftists, communists and liberal personalities participated in the revolution. Unveiled women marched side by side with veiled women, chanting against the shah’s regime and welcoming Ayatollah Khomeini’s return from France when he arrived in Tehran in 1979.
This mixture, which made the revolution, began to shrink after the clergy took control of the scene. Gradually, the revolutionary religious youth began working to impose their strict vision. Although they were not the majority, they were the loudest and most powerful.
At the beginning of the revolution, the radicals sought to isolate girls from boys in universities and to impose the veil, despite Khomeini’s apparent opposition to that. Then, there were bad events in which incendiary materials were thrown at unveiled women. Slowly, with the start of the Iran-Iraq war and the rise of revolutionary and religious fervor, the extremists tightened their grip and the veil was imposed on women.
The war, and the dead and wounded returning from the battlefields, made sadness and a black color hang over Iran’s homes. This led to an increase in the religious legitimacy of imposing the veil, amid a general weakness of the patriotic and leftist figures, many of whom fled abroad, while those who stayed were either imprisoned or stripped of any real power.
The people have their methods of circumventing the regime and obtaining greater freedoms.
Hassan Fahs, a researcher specializing in Iranian affairs, indicated in an article titled “Iran: Religion in the Service of Politics” that “the regime moved to implement compulsory hijab in mid-1982, about two and a half years after leaving matters without interference or making hijab mandatory. Whoever visited Tehran in the early summer of that year, it was not difficult to notice the presence of some unveiled women in the streets of the capital, which soon disappeared with the increase of religious police patrols. These patrols consisted of two cars, one of which included four young men, and the other included four girls belonging to the revolutionary committees, or the ‘Guards.’ They would pursue any couple whose legitimate relationship was in doubt, arrest those caught being involved in a forbidden relationship or companionship and even reprimand women wearing headscarves but revealing some of their hair.”
These patrols tried to make the veil part of the regime’s identity, claiming that, without it, the regime would lose its prestige and ability to regulate society. Therefore, the regime sought to cling to it, especially in religious cities such as Mashhad and Qom and in conservative circles, in which clerics have greater influence.
During the rule of former President Mohammed Khatami, and despite his coming to power with an open reform program, “a plan entitled ‘The Comprehensive Chastity Plan’ was approved, after Khatami issued a decision to prepare 16 strategies for veiling and chastity. These strategies were approved by the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution, which is chaired according to the law by the president of the republic,” according to a report published by the Jadeh Iran website.
However, the government of Khatami, on whom the conservatives exerted extensive pressure, did not want “to bear the burden of implementation and, for this reason, he left its implementation to the next government, led by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was affiliated with the fundamentalists at the time.” Therefore, with the formation of “the ninth government headed by Ahmadinejad, the police implemented this program under the title ‘Plan to Strengthen Social Security’ in full cooperation with the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards, the Ministry of Intelligence, and later the Basij Mobilization Force.”
So, there is a historical biography to the events that the world is witnessing today in Iran, up to the era of the current president, Ebrahim Raisi, during which “many religious authorities’ offices in different provinces announced the establishment of a disguised morality police, in addition to the forces present in the streets that supervise how the veil is worn through the use of advanced tools, including surveillance cameras, which record violations and punish them with financial penalties or summons and the opening of a judicial file.”
So, there is a socioreligious control that has increased day after day. At a time when Iran’s neighboring countries are heading toward more openness, development and social freedoms, Iranians find themselves under tighter government control and some social networking applications are banned as if the ruling regime is unaware of the rapid changes.
The apparent move to freeze the so-called morality police, announced this week by the Iranian Public Prosecutor Mohammed Jafar Montazeri, is an attempt to absorb popular tension. However, despite its great symbolism and the Iranian Guardian Council’s declaration of its intention to discuss the issue of compulsory hijab, all these steps will not be meaningful unless they are applied on the ground and people are allowed to live their lives the way they want.
The Iranian regime will seek to alleviate popular anger and present ideas that try to solve the crisis through violence, imprisonment and repression at times, and dialogue and leniency at others. However, the people also have their methods of circumventing the regime and obtaining greater freedoms. This process will continue between the regime and its critics. It may lead, after a while, to real gains for the Iranian people, but the opposite is also possible, with the level of repression increasing, especially with the growth of the “conspiracy theory” among the regime’s extremist leaders.
• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran.