English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 07/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december07.21.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Among those who are born of women there has not arisen anyone greater than John the Baptizer; yet he who is least in the Kingdom of Heaven is greater than he
Matthew 11/11-15: Most certainly I tell you, among those who are born of women there has not arisen anyone greater than John the Baptizer; yet he who is least in the Kingdom of Heaven is greater than he. From the days of John the Baptizer until now, the Kingdom of Heaven suffers violence, and the violent take it by force. For all the prophets and the law prophesied until John. If you are willing to receive it, this is Elijah, who is to come. He who has ears to hear, let him hear.”

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06-07/2021
President Aoun deliberates ways to address urgent issues with PM Mikati, meets National Defense Minister, Ambassador Ziadeh
Miqati Briefs Aoun on his Call with Macron, MBS
‘Progress’ on Resolving Govt. Crisis as FPM Shows ‘Flexibility’
Miqati Chairs Meeting on Border Measures, Economic Ties with Gulf
Minister: Miqati to Call for Cabinet Session Soon, Solution Has Matured
FPM Minister Says Progress Made in Talks to Resume Cabinet Sessions
Franjieh: We Won't Name Replacement for Kordahi
Kanaan: Capital Control bill not passed
Lebanese Army receives 70 tons of food aid from Qatar
Hariri Hospital: 43 Corona cases, 24 critical cases, no deaths
Mikati holds key meetings in effort to restore Arab trust in Lebanon
Maronites’ State -Plight Of Mind/Yusuf Al Khoury/December 06/2021
Will Lebanon’s energy crisis be solved by Israeli gas?/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 06, 2021
Macron is asking the moon from Lebanon
Coping mechanisms/Weekly roundup from NOW./Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/December 06/2021

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2021
Pope Ends Visit to Greece Focused on the Plight of Migrants
Iran Says Hopes to Turn Page in Ties with UAE
Iran Says Ready to Continue Nuclear Talks, Rejects 'Blame Game'
Iran Slams France for Selling Weapons to Gulf Arab States
Iranian President receives delegation headed by Tahnoun bin Zayed
Syrian Foreign Minister Visits Tehran
Iraqi Federal Court Postpones Hearing of Lawsuit to Annul Election Results
Iraqi Forces, Kurdish Peshmerga Retake Northern Village from ISIS Fighters
Peshmerga are the military forces of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Abul Gheit Calls on Revitalizing Arab-Euro Talks on Palestine
Palestinian Killed after Ramming Car into West Bank Checkpoint
Sisi Stresses Strong Relations Between Cairo, Abu Dhabi
Canada/Joint statement on detentions in Ethiopia

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2021
What Russia Wants in Ukraine/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 6, 2021
The Poisonous Shaming of ‘Lebanese Liberals’/Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
The Fear, the Window and the Train/Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
U.S. and Europe Must Counter Potential Weapons-Grade Enrichment by Iran/Andrea Stricker/FDD/December 06/2021
Lebanese Journalist Defends Morocco's Hosting Of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Purchase Of Israeli Weapons/MEMRI/December 06/2021
Palestinian support for one-state solution is surging/Joseph Dana/The Arab Weekly/December 06/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 06-07/2021
President Aoun deliberates ways to address urgent issues with PM Mikati, meets National Defense Minister, Ambassador Ziadeh
NNA/December 06/2021 
President of the Republic, General Michel Aoun, met Prime Minister, Najib Mikati, today at the Presidential Palace.
The general situation and governmental developments were discussed, in addition to several issues related to the work of government and ministerial committees. PM Mikati briefed the President about the details and discussions in the phone call he received last Saturday from French President, Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman. In addition, the procedures to be adopted to address some urgent issued were deliberated in the meeting. National Defense Minister: The President met National Defense Minister, Maurice Sleem, and addressed with security affairs, the work of institutions affiliated with the ministry and the needs of the Lebanese Army, under the current circumstances. President Aoun received Ambassador, Caroline Ziadeh, on the occasion of her appointment as Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, and Head of the UN Interim Mission in Kosovo. The President congratulated Ziadeh for assuming this international diplomatic position, and praised her competence and experience wishing her success in her new tasks. -- Presidency Press Office

Miqati Briefs Aoun on his Call with Macron, MBS
Naharnet/December 06/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati briefed Monday President Michel Aoun on the details of his call with French President Emmanuel Macron and Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. The two leaders met in Baabda and discussed the general situation in the country and the governmental developments.
Macron and Bin Salman had held on Saturday a joint phone call with Miqati.Macron later announced that there would be a French-Saudi initiative to resolve the diplomatic crisis between Riyadh and Beirut. Bin Salman “was clear in his commitment (to help the Lebanese people) and we together relayed the message to Miqati during the phone call,” the French leader added.

‘Progress’ on Resolving Govt. Crisis as FPM Shows ‘Flexibility’
Naharnet/December 06/2021
There is no solution to the governmental crisis unless the ruling parties, including the Free Patriotic movement, agree on restoring the role of the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, Amal and Hizbullah sources told al-Liwaa newspaper. The newspaper said that contacts between President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri, Prime Minsiter Najib Miqati, FPM and Hizbullah haven’t reached a final conclusion yet. “A progress has been made in the last couple of days,” according to the newspaper, without reaching a final consensus before the legislative session tomorrow. The FPM’s political council “showed flexibility” towards discussing the referral of the ex-PM and former ministers to the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers in parliament, al-Liwaa added. The newspaper quoted the FPM as saying that “the government is not responsible and has no authority to resolve the existing judicial dispute,” and that “finding a solution is within the competence of the judiciary or Parliament.”

Miqati Chairs Meeting on Border Measures, Economic Ties with Gulf
Naharnet/December 06/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati on Monday presided over a broad meeting aimed at following up on the issue of tightening border control and resolving the latest disputes with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. The meeting was attended by the ministers of defense, interior, foreign affairs, agriculture and industry, and the heads of Customs, Economic Committees, Association of Lebanese Industrialists, Beirut Traders Association, Union of Lebanese-Gulf Businessmen Councils.“We met today at PM Miqati’s invitation to follow up on the issue of resolving the disputes that concern the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf countries,” Interior Minister Bassam al-Mawlawi said after the talks. “We are required to take fast and practical measures that prove that the government is carrying out its duties in controlling the border, the airport, the port and all border crossings,” the minister added. “We should reach a result to curb the smuggling that is taking place from Lebanon, and as interior minister, I have stressed that several (smuggling) operations will be exposed soon,” Mawlawi went on to say, noting that an attempt to smuggle Captagon pills was thwarted on Sunday and that the culprits were arrested. France's president and Saudi Arabia's crown prince had held a joint phone call with Miqati during Emmanuel Macron's visit to the kingdom on Saturday, in a significant gesture amid an unprecedented crisis between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia.

Minister: Miqati to Call for Cabinet Session Soon, Solution Has Matured
Naharnet/December 06/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati will soon call for a Cabinet session and the solution has “matured,” Education Minister Abbas al-Halabi said. “The parties will come together to confront the difficult circumstances,” Halabi added, in remarks to al-Jadeed TV. He noted that a possible exit from the political crisis would be for parliament to summon the accused ex-PM and former ministers in the port blast case in order to try them before the Higher Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, which would defuse the governmental standoff over Judge Tarek Bitar’s investigations. “Information Minister George Kordahi’s resignation heralded a new phase and it will soon be crowned by a Cabinet session,” Halabi added, noting that the resignation was a “responsible step” that created a “breakthrough” in the diplomatic crisis with Saudi Arabia.'

FPM Minister Says Progress Made in Talks to Resume Cabinet Sessions
Naharnet/December 06/2021
Discussions to secure the resumption of Cabinet sessions have made some progress, Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar said.m“Things will return to normal and all Lebanese components are tackling the file of resuming Cabinet sessions,” Hajjar, who is loyal to the Free Patriotic Movement, said.
“All parties are exerting efforts and we hope for positive results,” the minister added, in a radio interview. Cabinet has not convened since October 14, when a political crisis erupted over Judge Tarek Bitar’s probe into the port blast, with Hizbullah and Amal demanding that a decision be taken in Cabinet to remove him over alleged bias. President Michel Aoun's camp and other parties had meanwhile voiced their rejection of political interference in the judiciary.

Franjieh: We Won't Name Replacement for Kordahi
Naharnet/December 06/2021
Marada Movement chief Suleiman Franjieh on Sunday announced that his party will not name a successor for Information Minister George Kordahi, who resigned on Friday over a diplomatic crisis with the Gulf states. "With our respect and love for all the names that have been raised in the press, our stance that we expressed in Bkirki about not naming a successor to ex-minister George Kordahi has not and will not change," Franjieh tweeted. Kordahi stepped down Friday in a move he said could open the way for easing an unprecedented diplomatic row with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab nations that has compounded Lebanon's multiple crises. The resigned minister had criticized the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen during an interview which was recorded before he became minister but was aired after he joined the Cabinet. His comments angered Saudi Arabia as well as Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, which responded by recalling their ambassadors from Beirut. Saudi Arabia also blocked imports and Kuwait said it would limit visas issued to Lebanese, prompting fears that a Gulf backlash could endanger the interests of millions of expatriates living in Arab states of the oil-rich Gulf.
The standoff marked a fresh blow for Lebanon, whose government was only formed in September after a 13-month deadlock.

Kanaan: Capital Control bill not passed
NNA/December 06/2021
Finance and Budget Committee Head, MP Ibrahim Kanaan, on Monday said in the wake of the joint parliamentary committees’ session: “We fully support the Capital Control bill, but it must provide clear numbers. The Central Bank and the government must commit to referring the Capital Control bill to Parliament with a clear plan.” Kanaan explained that the Capital Control Law, which had been referred to parliament outside the legislative and regulatory context, has not been passed due to the fact that it has been planned, once again, at the expense of depositors' rights

International Monetary Fund mission headed by Ramirez arrives in Lebanon
NNA/December 06/2021
A mission from the International Monetary Fund has arrived in Lebanon, led by the new head of mission, Ernesto Ramirez, who will assume his duties early next year, succeeding Martin Cerisola. The mission is scheduled to meet at 9 a.m. tomorrow with Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail, at the start of a few-day visit during which mission members will hold a series of meetings with senior Lebanese officials and members of the ministerial committee tasked to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund.

Lebanese Army receives 70 tons of food aid from Qatar
NNA/December 06/2021
The Lebanese Army announced via Twitter that it has received at Beirut’s Rafic Hariri International Airport 70 tons of foodstuffs as a donation from the State of Qatar.

Hariri Hospital: 43 Corona cases, 24 critical cases, no deaths
NNA/December 06/2021
In its daily report on the latest COVID-19 developments on Monday, Rafic Hariri University Hospital indicated the below:
Number of vaccines administered at the Covid-19 Vaccination Center at the Rafic Hariri University Hospital:
Pfizer: 1044
AstraZeneca: 338
- Number of examinations conducted in the hospital’s laboratories during the past 24 hours: 367
- Number of patients infected with Coronavirus currently in the hospital for follow-up: 43
- Number of suspected cases of being infected with Coronavirus during the past 24 hours: 12
- Number of recovered patients in the hospital during the past 24 hours: 1
- Total number of recoveries at the hospital to-date: 1426
- Number of cases transferred from the intensive care unit to the isolation unit after improvement: 0
- Number of critical cases inside the hospital: 24
- Number of death cases: 0
The report also reminded that the Covid-19 Vaccination Center at the Rafic Hariri University Hospital remains at the service of citizens Monday to Thursday, and can be reached at the land line number 01-832070.

Mikati holds key meetings in effort to restore Arab trust in Lebanon
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 06, 2021
BEIRUT: Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday held a number of meetings designed to help restore Arab trust in Lebanon, and the country’s diplomatic and economic relationships with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
It followed an agreement, announced in Jeddah on Saturday, by French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to work together to help the people of Lebanon.
The participants in extended meetings at the Grand Serail, the prime minister’s headquarters, included Defense Minister Maurice Selim, Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi, Foreign Affairs Minister Abdullah Bou Habib, Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan and Industry Minister George Boujikian.
Other officials who took part included Acting Director-General of Lebanon Customs Raymond Al-Khoury, Mohammed Choucair, the head of the Lebanese Economic Organizations, and representatives of the Federation of Lebanese-Gulf Businessmen Councils.
Choucair, who is also a former minister, stressed the need for the organizations to work on resuming exports to Saudi Arabia and said: “We discussed new ways of doing that.”
During the meeting, Mikati said that “Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are fed up of hearing slogans that are not implemented.”
A number of people who were present told Arab News that Mikati stressed the “need to address the gaps,” and that “some issues the Gulf states are complaining about are right. We must recommend measures to address them, such as the establishment of additional towers on the borders with Syria in order to control the border.”
Mawlawi said that discussions had focused on the issue of exports to Saudi Arabia and concerns about smuggling.
He said: “We will take practical measures for anything that might pose a threat to our relations with the Arab states, and I will follow up on all judicial proceedings related to smuggling and combating drugs and captagon.
“We must all take prompt action to control the borders, airport, port and all crossing points, and we must (address) the smuggling happening through Lebanon. We do not disclose all smuggling operations we bust.”
Mawlawi added: “We intercepted a captagon-smuggling operation on Saturday. We are following up on it, and the people involved have been arrested.
“We will give practical answers to the smuggling taking place, and what might pose a threat to our relations with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states in this regard.”
He also noted that “in the case of seized narcotic substances, even if they are manufactured outside of Lebanon and brought to Lebanon to change the manufacturing company’s name and repackage them, the company’s license will be revoked, its work discontinued and its name announced.”
Regarding a call for the restriction of weapons to Lebanese state institutions as a condition for the restoration of Saudi-Lebanese relations, Mawlawi said: “We are implementing the Lebanese state’s policy and highlighting its interests.”
Nicolas Chammas, head of the Beirut Traders’ Association, said that “the biggest problem remains contraband.” He added: “We will work to make Lebanon, once again, a platform for the export of goods, not contraband. We are required to take swift, serious measures and we will take successive measures in this regard.”
Fouad Siniora, a former president of Lebanon, described Saturday’s Saudi-French statement as being “of exceptional importance in these delicate circumstances.”
It “resolves the controversy regarding many issues raised in the Arab region, especially with regard to Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Lebanon,” he added.

Maronites’ State -Plight Of Mind
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/97779/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%ae%d8%b1%d8%ac-%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%83%d8%a7%d8%aa%d8%a8-%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b3%d9%81-%d9%8a-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ae%d9%88%d8%b1%d9%8a-%d9%85%d8%ad%d9%86%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b9%d9%82/
Yusuf Al Khoury/December 06/2021
Translated by: Elias Bejjani
Few days ago, I was visiting my dear friend Wael Khair, and while both of us were having our coffee on his balcony that overlooks a marvelous pine forest in the northern Matn, he seriously expressed his dire concern about the timing of Maronite Patriarch Al-Rahi’s call for an “international conference” for Lebanon. My spontaneous response was: “Is there any other way to save our occupied country, other than the “international conference”? He replied, “May be there is not, but I am afraid of the timing that might make us regret the call, and wish we have maintained the current status quo in spite of all its hardships and miseries”.
I asked him to explain more his concerns, and his actual fears. He said sarcastically “Sadly it is the Maronites’ “For Sale Time”, and Almighty God only knows what kind of horrible accords their leaders would compromise and agree on, in case they partake in any conference on Lebanon. Let us go back and list their previous disasters:
In year 1969, General Emile Al-Bustani, Head of the Lebanese Army, signed in Egypt “The Cairo Accord”, one year before the presidential election that was due in 1970. And since that date, I could not find in this sinful Accord any explanation for the relinquishment of sovereignty, in favor of the Palestinians, other than Al-Bustani’s selfish personal presidential agenda that revolved around his stupid calculations of the Sunni “MP’s” (Members Of Parliament), whom he thought might vote for him in the presidential election.
In year 1989, the “Taif Accord” was signed in Saudi Arabia, at a time that there was a presidential vacuum. Just Look thoroughly at this Accord that the Maronite MP’s returned to Lebanon with. I cannot find an explanation for their deadly total concessions, except that each of them was appeasing the Muslims to win their votes in the coming presidential election.
My friend Wael continued: Today, we are encountering the Patriarch’s call for an international conference, and the time is almost a year before the presidential election, and I would not be surprised with the disappointing “outcome” if the Maronite Leaders partake in a new “ Maronite Black Friday” to save Lebanon.
I said to Wael: aren’t you harsh on the Maronite MP’s, when all Lebanon’s MP’s participated in the “Taif Conference”?
He replied: Absolutely not, I am not harsh or unfair with anyone. The Maronite MP’s were the only ones who made significant concessions. Didn’t the Orthodox MP, Najah Wakim, who participated in the conference say:” We Fucked the Maronites”.
It is worth mentioning that Wael Khair is an orthodox too, but very gentle in manners, and does not utter insults, so he said “We saddled the Maronites” and not “Fucked them” as Wakim said. In any case, no one could have “Fuck” the Maronites unless the Maronites themselves wanted to be “Fucked”.
I contemplated carefully about what my friend had to say, and found that he was to a certain extent right. I wondered, If General Al-Bustani’s ambitions in the presidency post had prompted him to make such horrible concessions in Cairo, then where were the rest of the Christian and Maronite MP’s who did not oppose the “Cairo Accord” in the Parliament?! Where were Camille Chamoun, Suleiman Franjieh and Pierre Gemayel?!! Why they did nothing in this regard, and only MP Raymond Edde adopted an opposing stance in the parliament by loudly saying a resounding NO, to PM Rashid Karameh, who insisted on passing the “Cairo Accord” without letting the MP’s to read its context before approving it?!!!
Today I ask again where they were!? Apparently they were “in a “For Sale Status” and that is why they stayed merely silent.
With the “Taif Accord” the “For Sale Maronite Dhimmitude and shameful stances” were no less disastrous and surrendering than in the “Cairo Accord”.
There are documented genuine statements stating that the Parliament Speaker at that time, MP, Hussein al-Husseini, and in order to secure the quorum for the presidential election session in “Klayaat Airport” after the Taif Conference, he called each Maronite MP separately and said to him: “Prepare your presidential statement, and come to the session, and don’t tell anybody that I spoke with you .”
In fact, that was a shameful reality. The Maronites refused to elect MP, Michael Al-Daher for the presidency post , then they headed to “Al Taif”, in Saudi Arabia, where they practiced again “Their For Sale” Dhimmitude and self-centered stances.
I thank Almighty God that my friend Wael, the Orthodox, have missed the Maronites “For Sale Stances” in Doha, (Qatar) where with the rest of the corrupt Lebanese regime MP’s co-operated in adopting the unconstitutional “Doha Accord”, that handed over the state to Hezbollah.
I also thank Almighty God that my friend have missed the “Black Friday” story, that President Bechara El-Khoury put up in honor of the Palestinian refugees. As a coincident, I have heard this story from “Abu Arz, Etien Sakr”, leader of the “Guardians Of The Cedars Party”. Abu Arz heard this story from Judge Asaad Germanos, who personally confirmed it to me in a social get together event at Wael Khair’s residence in Duma.
Sheikh Asaad told me that: “Riad El-Solh summoned his late father (Sheikh Youssef) to his office at the prime minister’s headquarter, and said to him: Your friend, Sheikh Beshara El-Khoury, will okay the Palestinian refugees to take asylum in Lebanon, and this matter poses a grave future danger to the country. Pay him a visit, Sheikh Youssef, perhaps you can convince him not to do that, for I personally tried and did not succeed.
Immediately Sheikh Youssef went to the presidential Palace in Kantari, and found President Sheikh Beshara having his fish dinner. Sheikh Beshara invited him to share the fresh fish meal that “Daou family” sent to him from “Batroun City”. “He was hinting that the fish was a gift from Sheikh Youssef’s wife family in Batroun. Sheikh Youssef directly explained the reason of his visit, saying “I came to ask if you were really intending to allow thousands of Palestinian refugees to enter Lebanon?” The President replied, “I advise you to eat fish.” Sheikh Youssef apologized and insisted on hearing his answer. Then the President said: “In the last parliamentary elections, the “National Bloc Party” won over our, “Al Destour”, Party because of the Armenian votes. If we Okay the Palestinians entrance to Lebanon, they will vote for us in the next elections, and we will defeat our opponents.” Then Sheikh Youssef left, mumbling: “I will not eat fish anymore.”
This event took place one year before the end of the El-Khoury’s presidency term, and apparently he was planning to renew it for another term, so he thought that by allowing the Palestinians refugee in Lebanon, the Sunnis will hail his decision and support him for a second term.
It is indeed the Maronites’ Plight Of Mind.
In conclusion, the presidency post in Lebanon is the Maronites’ evil affliction, and the worst thing about this fallacy is they are still clinging to it, when in reality it is a mere wreckage.
My Lord Jesus Christ, I call on you to protect the Lebanese people, and keep away from them the specter of an international conference, one year before the presidential elections, and to safeguard them from the dangers of the Maronite “For Sale” race for the presidency post.
And Just as You dealt with Saint Paul when he dared to challenge You, deal with the Maronite leaders, blind their insights, and make them insane in a bid to overlook their differences and forget that there is an upcoming presidential election.
If they are in good shape, sane and healthy, they will definitely destroy us and the country…. Perhaps when they are insane, there will be a hope that we are really staying in our beloved Lebanon, so neither those deluded with the presidency nor the “for Sale” corrupt politician will be able to defeat us.

Will Lebanon’s energy crisis be solved by Israeli gas?
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 06, 2021
Gas will be flowing to Lebanon in the next three months. This is what Amos Hochstein, the US State Department’s senior adviser for global energy security and the officer in charge of maritime talks between Lebanon and Israel, announced last week. This step is part of President Joe Biden’s frozen conflict policy, which aims to keep Lebanon afloat and prevent its fall. However, it is interesting to see where this gas will come from. The current US government does not want to give a lifeline to the corrupt Lebanese government, but it wants to make the life of the people bearable. So it came up with the idea of supplying Lebanon with gas from Egypt. The energy crisis Lebanon has been suffering from risks totally crippling the country. The idea of supplying it with gas in the next three months aims to prevent the delay, or even cancelation, of the elections scheduled for March. The corrupt elite might have felt compelled to prevent the vote from going ahead due to it losing its grassroots base. However, Egypt receives natural gas from Israel. A 90-km pipeline transfers gas from the Israeli terminal of Ashkelon to the receiving station of Al-Arish as part of the so-called Peace Gas Pipeline. In October this year, an announcement was made about the construction of an additional $200 million pipeline to boost Israel’s exports of natural gas to Egypt by 3 to 5 billion cubic meters per year. The pipeline is partly expected to boost Egypt’s liquefied natural gas sales to Europe and Asia.
Basically, Egyptian natural gas is mixed with Israeli gas before it is exported. Under this new deal, it will be transported to Jordan through a Red Sea pipeline and from there on to Syria. In addition to the gas coming from Ashkelon via Egypt, the other supply to Jordan comes to the northern part of the country from Israel’s Leviathan field. Either way, the gas received by Jordan and subsequently sent to Syria is at least partially Israeli. The key question is: Will Lebanon be receiving Israeli gas?
According to sources, discussions were held with the Lebanese government over arranging a swap to avoid the embarrassment of the country being rescued by Israeli gas. This would mean that, as the supply arrives in Syria, it will be used there and replaced by Syrian gas. Hence, the gas that reaches Lebanon will be from Syria, while Syria will be using the Israeli gas. This would raise some important questions. What happened to the resistance rhetoric that is the fig leaf of the Syrian regime’s legitimacy? How could a regime that has failed to deliver for its people on all fronts and whose only claim to legitimacy is its resistance to Israel accept such a deal?
The irony is that Hezbollah, which has shown “resistance” to Lebanon’s talks with Israel over maritime demarcation — that could lead to a deal that would allow Lebanon to extract gas from its own waters — under the pretext of refusing any dealings with the “Zionist enemy,” seems OK with a deal that involves importing Israeli gas. While it wants to block the demarcation talks so that it does not lose the point of contention with Israel, it allows a deal that involves Israeli gas because it sees in it a lifeline for the system. After all, as one energy expert told me, gas molecules do not carry flags — Hezbollah can always claim it is Egyptian gas. Hence, this deal will not strip Hezbollah of the narrative that Israel is usurping Lebanese land, water and sovereignty, and that it is the defender of Lebanon against the Zionist enemy.
As one energy expert told me, gas molecules do not carry flags — Hezbollah can always claim it is Egyptian gas.
Another question is how such a deal can be passed without breaching America’s Caesar Act, which forbids any dealings with the Syrian regime? The Arab Gas Pipeline was a step taken by Jordan to indirectly normalize with the Assad regime. Helping Lebanon to get the energy it badly needs is the perfect narrative to start the process. Lebanon has been assured that the gas that passes through Syria will be exempt from the Caesar Act. However, such a step will receive some pushback in the US Congress. In August, Republican Rep. Bryan Steil and Sen. Joe Wilson requested a report on the economic benefits for the Syrian regime of operating the Arab Gas Pipeline. However, some proponents of the deal say it will prevent Lebanon from getting oil from Iran, which would entrench its captivity to the whims of Hezbollah and Tehran.
The deal has many dimensions. One is an indirect normalization with Bashar Assad — could that lead to an effort to rehabilitate Assad and push him to break from Iran? Another would be Israel’s indirect normalization, just as it is trying through economic and development projects to break its isolation from the Arab world. The third dimension is preventing a total collapse of Lebanon, as the US does not want to handle the repercussions of such a collapse. Despite all these aspects, one important point remains yet to be highlighted: How can Hezbollah and the Assad regime, whose entire legitimacy is based on resistance to Israel, accept a deal that involves Israeli gas?
*Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II. She is also an affiliate scholar with the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Macron is asking the moon from Lebanon
The Arab Weekly/December 06/2021
In every word of the statement issued after the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in Jeddah, there is confirmation that Lebanon is unable to regain its position in the region.
Lebanon cannot undertake any reforms, nor can it protect its borders, nor can the legitimate forces it possesses exert a monopoly on weapons. From this standpoint, it did not matter whether George Kordahi resigned from the Lebanese government or not. Kordahi is nothing but a small detail, rather a trivial one, in a situation that transcends him ... in a country that is in a state of flux. The main mistake of Prime minister Najib Mikati, who is undoubtedly making huge efforts to save what can be salvaged from the country, lies in accepting the appointment of someone like Kordahi. But Mikati, for his own reasons, is ready to form a government at any cost based on the understanding he has with French officials.
The remaining questions have to do with Lebanon's position in the region. Is it an Arab country or not? Is it a country that can be described as a friend of the civilised world, led by Europe, or is it just a satellite in the Iranian orbit?
This is the type of question that France is supposed to ask itself before it enters into a mediation between a country ruled and controlled by Hezbollah, on the one side and Arab Gulf states, led by Saudi Arabia, on the other.
Lebanon has shifted from being a country with a close direct relationship and common interests with the Arab Gulf states to a nation that is hostile to these countries, on which depends the livelihood of more than half a million Lebanese families. The words of someone like George Kordahi about Yemen are nothing but an expression of Lebanon's predicament and that of the country's ignorance. Lebanon has no interest in his kind of rambling at a time when the country is now a source of exports of narcotics and non-narcotics to the Gulf region.
What the French president and the Saudi crown prince are asking for is nearly impossible. Saudi Arabia did well by putting France to the test. Asking Lebanon to protect its borders is unrealistic. The Lebanese government can do nothing about that. The border between Lebanon and Syria is open. Only Hezbollah, that is, Iran, controls it.
Lebanon's predicament is in evidence when a TV personality with no political perspective, allows himself to speak about Arab politics. It is not enough to be a successful broadcaster and have a decent voice in order to become an opinion leader with views about politics and developments in Yemen, when part of Northern Yemen has turned into an Iranian missile and drone base. This part of Northern Yemen has a long border with Saudi Arabia. How can a Lebanese, any Lebanese, enter a Yemeni maze of this kind just to please Hezbollah ... or to prove his loyalty to the Syrian minority regime that is at war with its own people? If the events of recent weeks revealed anything, they have shown that Lebanon is dying. What is on the table is the fate of Lebanon, where President Michel Aoun has no interest but to confirm that he is at the disposal of Hezbollah, so as to perhaps ensure the succession of his son-in-law, Gibran Bassil, to Baabda Palace in 2022. Recent weeks have also revealed that French policy in Lebanon is hopeless. It may not be required to confront Hezbollah, but there is no need, either, to surrender to Iran's will in Lebanon. What Paris has done since the destruction of Beirut port on August 4, 2020, is to show complete acquiescence to Iran. It simply turned out that France no longer knows Lebanon, does not want to know what Hezbollah is and does not want to know about Iran's behaviour inside and outside its borders, including in Yemen.
George Kordahi's resignation will not change anything. This is what the Gulf countries know very well. They understand where Lebanon is and what Hezbollah is doing in the entire region, Yemen included. On the other hand, does France know that catering to Iran in Lebanon is a hopeless policy? The best that this policy could achieve is to impose the diktat of the “Islamic Republic” of Iran on the small country and on Beirut in particular! Nice words are only nice words. What can France do in Lebanon beside uttering nice words about a country where everything has changed, especially when Paris cannot turn its words into deeds? Once again, what is the weight of France and what is its impact on the “Islamic Republic” in these particular circumstances? Most of all, Iran wants a deal with the United States, a deal with the “Great Satan.” It does not care about France's position, nor does it care about Lebanon's fate, which is getting worse day by day!

Coping mechanisms/Weekly roundup from NOW.
Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/December 06/2021
Hasan Trad ploughs a field with his tractor as he prepares it to be planted in the town of Kfartebnit, south of Beirut on November 22, 2021. Many residents are ditching the urban grind for ancestral towns and villages, where they can cut on living costs and forge new connections to a long-forgotten agricultural inheritance. Photo: Joseph Eid, AFP.
Both Aunt Nicole’s sons are now jobless, despite their studying graphic design and engineering. Therefore, they both moved to their northern village and they work in the garden – planting vegetables, picking fruits and olives, filling jars with pickles and jams.
They’re now self-sufficient: they eat from their own garden, what remains they sell and exchange for other necessities. They also barter with family scattered throughout Lebanon. Everyone has something to offer: some make olive oil, others make wine or arak, figs, and quince for jam, pickles and keshek, loz and joz, and homemade olive oil soap.
Their countryside gardens have become a network that provides relief, a support network where the supermarket has become rather useless or only serves as a place to buy shampoo and, still, laundry detergent.
Some may call autarky, or self-sufficieny, primitive – although it’s not. It functions amidst collapse. Some might see it as somewhat romantic. It isn’t when you’re in need. People move to the countryside to survive on agriculture, start knitting and sewing to make their own clothes, they make their own soap and invent various small trades to get extra income. They also sell their old family memorabilia for extra cash. Most Lebanese, 80 percent, according to the most recent statistics live now in poverty. Most of them are new poor – former middle-class families who this holiday season are celebrating their second, possibly third, Christmas and New Year wondering how they are going to survive the next day.
Many families end up sacrificing the future of their eldest son, who drops out of school and starts working to be able to raise his younger siblings. That sacrifice is almost never enough: the family still struggles. Working children don’t get paid decent salaries to help their families.
A generation of children will bear the consequences of the sacrifice they were forced to make, and, together with that generation, the country itself will pay the price. But this is clearly not a priority for the Lebanese government. Politicians have been busy bickering over anything but the fate of millions of Lebanese who are managing to survive only by making incredible sacrifices.
Regional seas and a ship “en derive”
Kordahi out: The Lebanese Minister of Information, George Kordahi, who triggered a diplomatic crisis between Beirut and several Gulf countries, finally resigned on Friday after over a month of negotiations. The whole story ended with pompous statements over who’s more important, the country or the minister.
Most analysts say the former television anchor who held a rather useless portfolio in the Lebanese government was hardly the main problem on the map of a regional conflict where Lebanon is trying hard to remain strategic.
Marada’s leader says they will not name a replacement.
The main reason for discord remains: Kordahi has little importance in the whole political equation both in Lebanon and in the region.
The main issue preventing the Lebanese government from actually working is the Beirut blast investigation and Hezbollah’s rejection of the probe lead judge Tarek Bitar. Sixteen months after the tragedy that killed 227 people and wounded over 7,000, the probe is still blocked by politicians who are afraid that they will pay the high price for a whole group of corrupt, incompetent politicians and security officials. Sixteen months: The families of the Beirut port blast victims gathered on Saturday to commemorate yet another month since the tragedy.
Saudi Arabia back in: Saudi Arabia and France stressed in a joint statement issued after talks between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Saturday that the Lebanese government needs to “carry out comprehensive reforms”, but also that weapons should only be held by the Lebanese state, exclusively.
Tennis ball: “The Lebanese crisis is not just an internal conflict between rival factions or enemies. It is, above all, a crisis of the State as a moral body, as a body politic surrounded by close boundaries, regulated by uncontested representative political power, governed by law that guarantees the rights and obligations of all, but especially the State defended by armed forces that hold the exclusive right to use violence to defend rights and law,” Antoine Courban writes for Ici Beyrouth.
Lebanon as a State has long perished, he says. On the regional table, it has nothing to offer to a possible protector. The question is, indeed, what deal has France mediated between Riyadh and Tehran, especially with the fate of the region being negotiated in Vienna, where diplomats have been trying to revive a deal with Iran on its nuclear program.
Hezbollah keeps Lebanon as one of the bullet points left in limbo on that negotiation table.
As close as it gets: Pope Francis visited Cyprus last week to the relief of a small, but always growing (especially during the past year), Maronite community on the divided island. He said he was concerned for Lebanon.
A week before the visit he met with Lebanese PM Najib Mikati at the Vatican. His visit to Lebanon – although he said he would land in Beirut after the formation of a government – is still pretty far-fetched. Francis, a man with rather leftist ideas in terms of social justice, is unlikely to be inclined to give credit to sectarian Christian factions before the Lebanese elections.
New COVID-19 regulations: Lebanon has initially issued regulations for travellers arriving on the International Airport of Beirut starting January 1, 2022. However, the government realized that a rise from roughly 500 cases a day to roughly 1500 a day, is a reason for concern, on top of the new Omicron variant that has led to restrictions across the globe. Therefore, starting December 15, all travelers arriving in Beirut have to prove that they are either vaccinated or present a PCR text with a negative result when they board for Lebanon. Also, they have to register on the Ministry of Health platform and undergo a PCR test on arrival, regardless their vaccination status.
Ration cards: Following months of delays, and with only some of the funding secured, Lebanon opened registration on December 1 for two cash assistance programs to help 700,000 vulnerable families after lifting subsidies.
Lebanon+:
Elections and patriarchy:
Noone has really written about what happened to public policy expert, economist and Kulluna Irada managing director Diana Menhem on Sar el Wa2et (It’s about time), seasoned talk show anchor Marcel Ghanem’s program on MTV Lebanon (it has a paywall if you’re watching from abroad).
Her looks were most definitely discussed, because she’s a woman, clearly, and the other guests also interrupted her numerous – and some counted over 20 – times to mansplain one thing or another. She was also accused of being a “crypto-marxist” because she spoke about accessible healthcare and education.
It was embarrassing, obviously for the male politicians who did what they did, as Menhem not only stood her ground, but also gained a lot of support.
For a real and hearty conversation with Diana Menhem, without misogynist comments, mansplaining and interruptions, watch Ronnie Chatah’s interview with on his podcast The Beirut Banyan.
His hero:
Podcasts:
Sarde after Dinner hosted Kawkab Zuhal (Saturn), drag artist, comedian and astrologer.
Jad Ghosn spoke to Elias Saba, economist and twice Minister of Finance.
Agenda:
The Parliament is set to convene on Tuesday, December 7. It was set to discuss a new bill on Capital Control, which was requested by the International Monetary Fund. However, the draft was rejected by the joint committees and it should not reach the plenary session. The MPs are also set to discuss the delayed $246 million ESSN project by the World Bank meant to provide aid to Lebanese families in need.
The Road Transport Unions have announced a strike starting with Thursday.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 06-07/2021
Pope Ends Visit to Greece Focused on the Plight of Migrants
Agence France Presse/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Pope Francis on Monday wrapped up a landmark three-day visit to Greece which has been marked by his calls for better treatment of migrants in Europe and a visit to asylum seekers on the island of Lesbos. Francis visited the Saint Dionysius School of the Ursuline Sisters in Athens and met with young people at the Catholic school. The pope is due to leave Athens to return to Rome at the end of the morning. Since his arrival in Greece on Saturday, Francis has met with the head of the Greek Orthodox Church and visited the Mavrovouni tent camp on Lesbos, where he called the neglect of migrants the "shipwreck of civilization". Following his visit to the migration flashpoint, he celebrated mass for some 2,000 faithful in Athens, where he urged respect for the "small and lowly". In 2016, Francis visited the sprawling Moria camp on Lesbos, when the island was the main gateway for migrants heading to Europe. His visit to Mavrovouni was shorter than in 2016 but he was warmly welcomed by a crowd of migrants at the camp, which houses nearly 2,200 asylum seekers. People later gathered in a tent to sing songs and psalms to the pontiff, who listened to them, visibly moved.
"I am trying to help you," Francis told one group through his interpreter. The Mavrovouni camp was hurriedly erected after Moria, then the largest such site in Europe, burned down last year.
'Grim cemetery without tombstones'
In his speech, Francis warned that the Mediterranean "is becoming a grim cemetery without tombstones" and that "after all this time, we see that little in the world has changed with regard to the issue of migration". The root causes "should be confronted -- not the poor people who pay the consequences and are even used for political propaganda", he added. According to the International Organization for Migration, 1,559 people have died or gone missing attempting the perilous Mediterranean crossing this year. About 40 asylum-seekers, mostly from Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of Congo, participated in an Angelus prayer in a camp tent with the pope, in the presence of Greek President Katerina Sakellaropoulou, EU vice-president Margaritis Schinas and Greek Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi. "His visit is a blessing," said Rosette Leo, a Congolese asylum seeker carrying a two-month-old baby as she waited in line for the ceremony. However, Menal Albilal, a Syrian mother with a two-month-old baby whose asylum claim was rejected after two years on the island, said refugees "want more than words, we need help." "The conditions here are not good for a baby," she told AFP. "The Greek government should think about us, we've been here for two years without work or education," said Francois Woumfo, from Cameroon. The pope has long championed the cause of migrants and his visit came after he delivered a stinging rebuke to Europe which he said was "torn by nationalist egoism".Before arriving in Greece, the pope visited Cyprus, where authorities said that 50 migrants will be relocated to Italy thanks to Francis. The 84-year-old pope is himself from a family of Italian migrants who settled in Argentina.

Iran Says Hopes to Turn Page in Ties with UAE
Agence France Presse/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Iran expressed hopes Monday to turn the page in its ties with the United Arab Emirates during a rare visit by a senior official from the Gulf Arab country. UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al-Nahyan arrived in the country earlier Monday at the invitation of Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. His visit also included a meeting with ultraconservative Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, state media said. The trip was the first of its kind since relations between the two countries were downgraded in 2016. That came after UAE ally Saudi Arabia severed ties with the Islamic republic after protesters attacked Saudi diplomatic missions over Riyadh's execution of a revered Shiite cleric. "Good relations with the countries of the region are one of the priorities of the new government's foreign policy," Raisi said during the meeting, according to the official news agency IRNA. "We therefore welcome the development of relations with the United Arab Emirates," he said. "Relations between two Muslim countries should not be affected by the interference of foreigners," Raisi added. Shiite Iran and the Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, along with its allies in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, back opposite sides in various armed and political conflicts in the region, most notably in Yemen and Syria.
But in the past months there have been signs of rapprochement as Saudi Arabia and Iran have held several rounds of talks aimed at improving ties. Sheikh Tahnoun "expressed hopes that the visit... would be the start of a new period of relations between the two countries," an official statement said. He also said he hopes it would "pave the way to the consolidation and overall expansion of bilateral relations," the statement added. Earlier in the day, Tehran accused France of "destabilizing" the region by selling arms to Gulf countries, days after Paris struck a record 14-billion-euro deal with the United Arab Emirates for 80 Rafale fighter jets. The UAE security advisor's visit coincides with that of Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal al-Meqdad, who met his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on Monday. "We had a good discussion earlier," Amir-Abdollahian said at a joint news conference.

Iran Says Ready to Continue Nuclear Talks, Rejects 'Blame Game'
Agence France Presse/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Iran said Monday it was ready to resume nuclear talks but based on draft proposals it submitted last week, accusing Western powers of stalling negotiations in Vienna. Last week, the Islamic republic returned to international talks in Vienna aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal after a five-month pause. On Wednesday it submitted two draft resolutions on the lifting of US sanctions and nuclear-related measures. But at the weekend the United States, as well as European participants at the Vienna talks, accused Iran of back-tracking. A senior U.S. administration official said the proposals "walked back any of the compromises that Iran had floated" during the previous six rounds of negotiations. The official accused Iran of seeking to "pocket all of the compromises that others -- the US in particular -- had made and then ask for more." On Monday, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh hit back. "Our texts are fully negotiable," he told a news conference about the draft proposals," also charging that the other parties "want to play a blame game.""We are waiting naturally to hear the other side's opinion concerning these texts and whether they have a real (counter) offer to make to us in writing," Khatibzadeh added. The seventh round of nuclear talks ended Friday after five days in Vienna, with delegations returning to their national capitals and expected to go back to Austria next week. Khatibzadeh said the negotiations were expected to resume "at the end of the week," without elaborating. The landmark 2015 nuclear accord was initially agreed between Iran and Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States. The deal is aimed at putting curbs on Iran's nuclear program to ensure it could not develop an atomic weapon, in exchange for sanctions relief for Tehran. But it began unravelling in 2018 when then US president Donald Trump pulled out and reimposed sanctions, prompting Iran to start exceeding limits on its nuclear program the following year. Iran has always insisted that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Iran Slams France for Selling Weapons to Gulf Arab States
Agence France Presse/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Iran on Monday accused France of "destabilizing" the Gulf region after Paris signed a record 14-billion-euro deal with the United Arab Emirates for 80 Rafale fighter jets. "We must not ignore France's role in destabilizing the region," foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh told a news conference. "We expected France to be more responsible. "The militarization of our region is unacceptable and the weapons they sell in the region are the source of turmoil." France clinched the order for 80 Rafale fighter aircraft during a visit Friday by President Emmanuel Macron to the UAE. During the visit, Abu Dhabi also inked a deal to buy 12 Caracal military transport helicopters, for a total bill of more than 17 billion euros (more than $19 billion). The UAE was the fifth biggest customer for the French defense industry, with deals worth 4.7 billion euros, from 2011 to 2020, according to a French parliamentary report. France has faced criticism after some of these weapons were used in Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition that includes the UAE is fighting Iran-backed rebels in a war that has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Khatibzadeh also complained that "billions of dollars worth of weapons are being sold to Arab countries" without sparking global concern while Iran's missile program is condemned by world powers. His remarks came as UAE National Security Adviser Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al-Nahyan was on a rare visit to Tehran, as the two countries seek to ease relations downgraded five years ago.

Iranian President receives delegation headed by Tahnoun bin Zayed
WAM/Monday, 6 December, 2021
President Ebrahim Raisi of the Islamic Republic of Iran today received a delegation headed by H.H. Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, National Security Adviser. During the meeting, which took place in Tehran, the two sides discussed prospects of consolidating bilateral ties and explored an array of issues of common interest. Sheikh Tahnoun conveyed to the Iranian President the greetings of President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan; and His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, and their wishes of further wellbeing, prosperity and development for Iran and its people. The Iranian President reciprocated the greetings and wished the UAE leaders continued progress and development.—WAM

Syrian Foreign Minister Visits Tehran
Damascus - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Syria's Foreign Minister Faisal al-Mekdad arrived in Tehran on Sunday for a two-day visit at the invitation of his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The visit aims to boost strategic relations between the two countries, according to Syria's al-Watan newspaper. Deputy Foreign Minister Bashar al-Jaafari is accompanying Mekdad, who is heading an official delegation, on the trip. The visit comes days after Damascus received an Iranian economic delegation headed by the Iranian Minister of Industry, Mine, and Trade Reza Fatemi Amin. The delegation met several senior officials in Damascus at the opening of the exhibition of Iranian products and services in the capital. They also launched the Syrian-Iranian Investment Forum last week, in conjunction with the announcement of a joint bank to facilitate trade and financial exchange between the two countries. The Syrian-Iranian economic and diplomatic activity witnessed a remarkable increase, with the gradual return of Arab economic-diplomatic relations, especially from the United Arab Emirates. Last week, Damascus hosted its first Arab economic conference since the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011. Iran's state-owned IRNA reported that the UAE's National Security Adviser, Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, will visit Iran Monday at the invitation of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani to discuss expanding bilateral ties.

Iraqi Federal Court Postpones Hearing of Lawsuit to Annul Election Results
Baghdad - Fadhel al-Nashmi/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
The Iraqi Federal Supreme Court, which specializes in resolving constitutional disputes, postponed the hearing of the lawsuit to annul the results of the parliamentary elections. The lawsuit was submitted by the leader of the Fatah coalition, Hadi al-Amiri, who attended the court session along with the chairman of Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) and National Contract coalition, Faleh al-Fayyad. The session was also attended by the top officials of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq movement, Adnan Faihan, and Naim al-Aboudi, the head of the National Sindh bloc Ahmed al-Asadi, and State Law Coalition official Yasser al-Maliki. Earlier, Amiri accused the Iraqi Electoral Commission of several legal and technical violations, describing it as "incompetent."The Alliance submitted appeals to the Federal Court with evidence of forgery, and it has six reports on the Commission's violations of the law.
Fatah issued a statement announcing that the lawsuits filed about falsifying the election results were based on the report of the German company. Mohammed Majid al-Saadi, the plaintiff's lawyer, announced that the court postponed the case to December 13, after the team submitted three requests to support their claim to annul the election results. Saadi told Asharq Al-Awsat that they demanded to review the contract between the Commission and Hensoldt, the German company that examines the device (C1000). They also wanted to summon software experts from Iraqi universities only and to have access to the reports issued by the German company. Meanwhile, a member of the Fatah coalition, Mohammad al-Ghabban, said that the Federal Court would use experts to follow up on the details of the report of the German company, stressing that the coalition continues to challenge the results of the election at the Federal Court.

Iraqi Forces, Kurdish Peshmerga Retake Northern Village from ISIS Fighters
Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters have recaptured a village in northern Iraq on Monday after ISIS militants took it over the previous day, security and police sources said according to Reuters. Elite Iraq interior ministry forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters managed on early Monday to control Luhaiban village, though the militants have left some houses booby-trapped with explosive devices, the sources said. In a separate attack on Sunday, ISIS militants killed four Peshmerga soldiers and a civilian, and wounded six other people when they attacked Qara Salem village in northern Iraq, security sources said. The Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs said in a statement that the attack caused casualties, but did not confirm the toll.

Peshmerga are the military forces of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan.
One Peshmerga colonel said ISIS fighters were using hit-and-run tactics in night attacks on their positions. "They avoid holding the ground for longer time ... More reinforcement forces were dispatched to the area to prevent further attacks," the colonel said. Iraqi forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters reinforced their troops in the area on Monday where the attacks had been carried out by militant group with Iraqi military helicopters flying over to chase militants, two Iraqi security sources said. The two villages are in remote territory claimed by the Iraqi government in Baghdad and the government of the autonomous northern Kurdish region in Erbil where there are regular attacks by ISIS. But it is a rare incident of ISIS militants controlling a residential area near a main road, a highway that links Erbil to the city of Kirkuk. Iraq declared victory over the extremist militant group in December 2017. Although the group has largely been defeated, it continues to carry out sporadic attacks and operate limited cells in the country, particularly in the north.

Abul Gheit Calls on Revitalizing Arab-Euro Talks on Palestine
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Arab League Secretary General Ahmed Abul Gheit called Sunday on revitalizing Arab-European talks on Palestine. During a meeting with EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell on the sidelines of the Rome Med-Mediterranean Dialogue conference hosted by Italy, Abul Gheit asserted the importance of maintaining EU initial stances on the implementation of the two-state solution and establishing an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders. He called on Europe to play a more influential role to revive the Palestinian-Israeli talks. A statement from the Arab League general secretariat said the meeting covered a set of bilateral and regional issues of common concern especially the preparations for the sixth round of the Arab-European Ministerial Meeting, due to be held in Cairo in early 2022. It said the two sides tackled means of rendering successful the Arab-European round of talks in order to push Arab-European relations forward, the source added. Abul Gheit reiterated the importance of activating Arab-European consultations to bolster partnership and enhance coordination between the two sides.

Palestinian Killed after Ramming Car into West Bank Checkpoint
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian teenager who rammed a car into a military checkpoint in the occupied West Bank early on Monday, seriously injuring an Israeli guard, Israel's defense ministry said. There was no immediate Palestinian comment on the incident, which occurred at a roadblock between Israel and the central West Bank, near the city of Tulkarem. The injured Israeli guard was being treated at Sheba Medical Center, in Tel Aviv, and was expected to survive, the defense ministry said in a statement. The alleged Palestinian attacker was 16 years old, it added. Violence has simmered in the West Bank, part of territory Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war and that Palestinians seek for a future state, since US-sponsored peace talks broke down in 2014.

Sisi Stresses Strong Relations Between Cairo, Abu Dhabi
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 6 December, 2021
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has stressed the strong and solid relations between his country and the United Arab Emirates, greeting the Emirati people on the 50th anniversary of their country’s National Day. “I am pleased to greet the UAE leaders and people on the 50th anniversary of the UAE's National Day,” Sisi posted on his Twitter account. The Egyptian President also lauded achievements, progress and prosperity made by the Arab country over the past years in development, building and technological modernization. “Over the past years, the UAE has introduced a unique model of development, urbanization, and technological modernization,” he wrote. Sisi stressed that Egypt will enhance cooperation with the UAE to serve the interests of both countries’ peoples. “We will continue to enhance [these relations] in a way that achieves the interests of our two peoples and nations,” the president wrote. Late last month, Sisi received a phone call from Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces. The spokesman for the Presidency had stated that the call touched on a number of issues pertinent to bilateral cooperation and relations between the two countries. This is in addition to exchanging views on regional and international issues of mutual interest. There was agreement to continue coordination and consultation between the two sides to serve the interest of both countries and peoples and to support security and stability in the region.

Canada/Joint statement on detentions in Ethiopia
December 6, 2021 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
The text of the following statement was released by Canada, Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom and the United States:
We are profoundly concerned by recent reports of the Ethiopian government’s detention of large numbers of Ethiopian citizens on the basis of their ethnicity and without charge. The Ethiopian government’s announcement of a state of emergency on November 2 is no justification for the mass detention of individuals from certain ethnic groups.
Reports by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) and Amnesty International describe widespread arrests of ethnic Tigrayans, including Orthodox priests, older people and mothers with children. Individuals are being arrested and detained without charges or a court hearing and are reportedly being held in inhumane conditions. Many of these acts likely constitute violations of international law and must cease immediately. We urge unhindered and timely access by international monitors.
We reiterate our grave concern at the human rights abuses and violations, such as those involving conflict-related sexual violence, identified in the joint investigation report by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights and the EHRC, and at ongoing reports of atrocities being committed by all parties to the conflicts. All parties must comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law, including those regarding the protection of civilians and humanitarian and medical personnel.
It is clear that there is no military solution to this conflict, and we denounce any and all past, present and future violence against civilians. All armed actors should cease fighting and the Eritrean Defence Forces should withdraw from Ethiopia. We reiterate our call for all parties to seize the opportunity to negotiate a sustainable ceasefire without preconditions. Fundamentally, Ethiopians must build an inclusive political process and national consensus through political and legal means, and all those responsible for violations and abuses of human rights must be held accountable.

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 06-07/2021
What Russia Wants in Ukraine
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/December 6, 2021
In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article — "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" — in which he wrote that he was convinced that the "true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia."
"The Russian regime's foremost interest is its own hold on power. All policy, internal and external, stems from this overriding goal." — Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl, Center for European Policy Analysis.
"The Russian Federation...has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv's gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behavior of key Western actors." — Marek Menkiszak, Center for Eastern Studies.
The first important factor here is Moscow's likely perception of the relative weakness of the US. The Kremlin's initial fear of 'retribution' from the new Joe Biden administration for its interference in the 2016 presidential election seems to have given way to the belief that Washington is focused on domestic problems and the challenge from China, so it is seeking to improve relations with the Russian Federation. — Marek Menkiszak.
"Do not make the mistake of handing an essential part of Europe's future to a country that is demonstratively not the EU's friend. Time will not be kind to such decision or to those who made it." — Olexander Scherba, Ukrainian diplomat, Jamestown Foundation.
"Russia has a clear aim: to weaken Ukraine so much that it will be relatively easy to control the country's politics. Moscow can achieve this by forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreement on its terms — which would establish a de facto Russian veto on Ukrainian domestic affairs — and by starting...anti-government revolts. Alternatively, Moscow could pressure Washington to 'deliver' Ukraine by signing security guarantees that favored Russia. These guarantees would prohibit Ukraine from not only joining NATO but also engaging in any form of cooperation with the West that would strengthen its resilience. This would eventually force Ukraine back into Moscow's sphere of influence." — Gustav Gressel, European Council on Foreign Relations.
"If Russia's coercive strategy works well, there is no guarantee that it will stop with Ukraine." — Gustav Gressel.
"Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation.... Ukraine has a gun to its head, but the German government only seems worried about the survival of its pipeline.... This is just the kind of poor judgement that enables Russian military aggression." — Gustav Gressel.
A massive build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is fueling speculation of an imminent invasion. Pictured: A Ukrainian soldier observes Russia-backed separatists through a periscope at a position near Donetsk, on April 22, 2021. (Photo by Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)
A massive build-up of Russian troops along the Ukrainian border is fueling speculation of an imminent invasion. Western leaders have warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against military action, but, especially after the catastrophic American withdrawal from Afghanistan, they appear divided and weak and may be unable to stop him.
A Russian invasion of Ukraine, if successful, would expand Moscow's sphere of influence along its western border and pave the way for Eastern Europe and the Baltics to come under Russian domination once again.
On December 3, the Washington Post reported that it had obtained an American intelligence document which assessed that Russia is planning a multi-front offensive involving nearly 200,000 troops within the next few months. The unclassified document, which includes satellite photos, shows Russian forces massing in four locations near Ukraine.
The document states that Russia already has roughly half the units — 50 battlefield strike groups consisting of a total of 70,000 troops — it needs for an invasion deployed near the border. Most of those units have arrived since September. A Biden administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said:
"The Russian plans call for a military offensive against Ukraine as soon as early 2022 with a scale of forces twice what we saw this past spring during Russia's snap exercise near Ukraine's borders. The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery and equipment."
The American intelligence assessment — leaked on the same day that Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that Russia has amassed nearly 100,000 troops near the border and will be ready to invade in late January 2022 — comes after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed the Ukraine situation with his European counterparts. On December 1, after a NATO summit in Latvia, Blinken said:
"We don't know whether President Putin has made the decision to invade. We do know that he is putting in place the capacity to do so on short order should he so decide. We must prepare for all contingencies.
"We've made it clear to the Kremlin that we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high impact economic measures that we've refrained from using in the past."
On December 2, Blinken met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of a ministerial meeting of the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Stockholm. Blinken demanded that Russia withdraw troops from the Ukrainian border. Lavrov deflected by warning that his country regarded the eastward expansion of the NATO military alliance as a "fundamental" security threat.
"No one should strengthen their security at the expense of the security of others," Lavrov said. "NATO's further eastward expansion will obviously affect our fundamental security interests."
Putin, speaking at an investment forum in Moscow, warned that Russia would act if its "red lines" on Ukraine were crossed by NATO.
NATO has not agreed to grant Ukraine membership, nor has the alliance deployed troops or weapons to Ukraine. NATO views Ukraine as a "partner" and has provided training and other forms of military support.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg indicated that the alliance would not defend Ukraine if it was attacked by Russia:
"It is important to distinguish between NATO allies and partner Ukraine. NATO allies, there we provide [Article 5] guarantees, collective defense guarantees, and we will defend and protect all allies.
"Ukraine is a partner, a highly-valued partner. There's a difference between a partner Ukraine and an ally like, for instance, Latvia. We need to understand the difference between a NATO ally, Latvia, other Baltic countries, Poland, Romania, and a close and highly valued partner, Ukraine. We provide support for Ukraine ... for the NATO allies we have the security guarantees, Article 5."
NATO did not defend Ukraine after Russia's first invasion in 2014, when Moscow occupied and then annexed the Crimean Peninsula, nor did it defend Georgia, another NATO "partner," after Russia's invasion in 2008.
Stoltenberg hinted that the Western response to any Russian invasion would be limited to economic sanctions:
"There will be a high price to pay for Russia if they once again use force against the independent, sovereign nation Ukraine. We have demonstrated our ability to impose costs, economic, political actions."
Stoltenberg also said that Russia has no right to extend its "sphere of influence" over Ukraine:
"It is only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto. Russia has no say. And Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence, trying to control their neighbors....
"They try to re-establish some kind of acceptance that Russia has the right to control what neighbors do, or not do....
"I, myself, I'm coming from a small country bordering Russia. And I'm very glad that our NATO allies have never respected that Russia has the kind of right to establish a sphere of influence in the North, trying to decide what Norway, as a small, independent country can do or not do.
"And that's exactly the same for Ukraine. Ukraine is an independent, sovereign nation with internationally recognized borders, guaranteed by Russia and all the other powers. And those borders, those internationally recognized borders should be respected. And that includes, of course, Crimea as part of Ukraine, and Donbas as part of Ukraine. So, this idea that NATO's support to a sovereign nation is the provocation, is just wrong. It's to respect the sovereignty of, the will of, the Ukrainian people.
"So I think that tells more about Russia than about NATO."
On December 3, U.S. President Joe Biden said that his administration was "putting together...the most comprehensive and meaningful set of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do what people are worried he's going to do."
A spokesperson for the White House's National Security Council said that Washington was "deeply concerned by evidence that Russia is stepping up its planning for significant military action against Ukraine." He concluded:
"The Biden administration has been consistent in our message to Russia: the United States does not seek conflict, and the best way to avert a crisis and a negative spiral in the broader relationship is through diplomacy and de-escalation."
The London-based Financial Times reported that some European officials were "surprised" about the strength of the U.S. intelligence assessment and that authorities on both sides of the Atlantic have spent weeks comparing and contrasting their evaluations.
The newspaper added that the Biden administration is seeking to announce the consequences to Russia of a Ukraine invasion as part of a diplomatic push to deter Putin from deciding to act.
An American defense official told the Financial Times that the Biden administration was considering providing weaponry to Ukraine, but that inter-agency discussions were continuing and no decisions had yet been made.
On December 3, a Biden administration official said:
"Since the beginning of this administration we have demonstrated that the United States and our allies are willing to use a number of tools to address harmful Russian actions, and we will not hesitate from making use of those and other tools in the future."
On December 6, in an interview with the Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail, Reznikov, the Ukrainian defense minister, urged military support from Britain, Canada and the United States, even if it is outside NATO. He said that the "Anglo-Saxon allies" were more likely to challenge Putin's aggressive behavior than countries like France and Germany, which are more concerned about maintaining their economic relationships with Russia.
What Does Russia Want?
Analysts are divided on what is motivating Putin. Some believe that he is using the Ukraine issue to deflect from runaway inflation and a divisive push for Covid vaccine passports. Others say that Putin is fixated on restoring Russian control over Ukraine and other former members of the former Soviet Union.
Max Seddon, Moscow correspondent for the Financial Times, wrote:
"Analysts say Putin's desire to rid Ukraine of western influence is underpinned by a conviction that it is an inalienable part of the 'Russian world,' a Moscow-centric sphere of influence rooted in the Soviet Union and the Tsarist empire.
"Putin has described the collapse of the USSR, which separated millions of intermarried families on either side of the Ukrainian border, as 'the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century' and has questioned the grounds on which Ukraine broke off from Russia.
"Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin likened the Ukrainian peninsula, where Vladimir the Great — the first Christian ruler of Rus, a medieval state ruled from Kyiv — was baptized in 988AD, as 'Russia's Temple Mount' — a notion that has no theological basis but cast Putin as the protector of Russians everywhere."
In July, Putin published a 5,000-word article — "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" — in which he wrote that he was convinced that the "true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia." He vowed Moscow would never allow the country to become "anti-Russia."
Putin was apparently referring to laws introduced by the Ukrainian government in July 2019 that aim to promote the primacy of the Ukrainian language. Those laws limit the use of the Russian language in public settings and exclude Russians from a list of Ukraine's "indigenous peoples."
In an interview with the Financial Times, political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said:
"In Putin's understanding, the people of Ukraine are basically one with Russians, so they should support integration with Russia. But since the country is under the thumb of the West the people are being tricked — they're hostage to geopolitical games. If the Americans left, it'd be a unified state and everything would be great. Or so Putin thinks."
Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine's former foreign minister, added:
"Putin has a sense of mission on reinstalling a new kind of empire. It's sitting very deep in his mind. Not just Ukraine's success, but also any separate path of Ukraine would be highly damaging to the Russian mythology.
"The narrative in Russia is that there is no Ukrainian identity as such, including history, language, mentality and statehood. Putin's stance on Ukraine is highly irrational. Ukrainians and Russians have two different sets of values."
Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko said:
"Putin's article claims to be about history, but in reality it is about the future and not the past. Ukraine holds the key to Putin's dreams of restoring Russia's great power status. He is painfully aware that without Ukraine, this will be impossible.
"Putin's essay does not actually contain anything new. Indeed, we have already heard these same arguments many times before. However, his article does help clarify that the current conflict is not about control over Crimea or eastern Ukraine's Donbas region; it is a war for the whole of Ukraine. Putin makes it perfectly clear that his goal is to keep Ukraine firmly within the Russian sphere of influence and to prevent Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration."
Swedish scholar Anders Åslund warned:
"Make no mistake: by denying Ukraine's right to independence, Putin is setting the stage for war. The West must quickly decide what it is willing to do to prevent it."
Western Weakness, Energy Dependence
Putin appears to have become emboldened by perceptions that the West will most likely make public protests but do nothing to stop him.
In Europe, policies promoted for decades by Germany have allowed the European Union to become overly dependent on Russia for its energy supplies. If, in retaliation for a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the EU or the United States were to impose economic sanctions that threatened the survival of the Putin regime, Moscow could stop deliveries of oil and natural gas. Such a move would quickly bring the European Union to its knees and force the bloc to lift its sanctions.
Putin also appears to view the Biden administration as feeble and feckless. In July, for instance, the White House abruptly reversed long-standing bi-partisan policy consensus and reached an agreement with German Chancellor Angela Merkel that allows for the completion of a controversial natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
The deal to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which would double shipments of Russian natural gas to Germany by transporting the gas under the Baltic Sea, angered the leaders of many countries in Eastern and Western Europe; they argued that it will effectively give Moscow a stranglehold over European gas supplies and open the continent to Russian blackmail.
Both the Obama and Trump administrations opposed the pipeline on the grounds that, once completed, it would strengthen Putin's energy stranglehold over Europe.
The Trump administration was especially critical of the pipeline because it will funnel billions of dollars to Russia at a time when Germany is free-riding on the U.S. defense umbrella that protects Germany from that same Russia.
Just one day before the Biden-Merkel deal was announced, State Department Spokesman Ned Price criticized the pipeline as a "Kremlin geopolitical project that is intended to expand Russia's influence over Europe's energy resources and to circumvent Ukraine." White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki had also previously asserted that the Biden administration "continues to believe that Nord Stream 2 is a bad deal for Europe."
The Biden administration has not explained why or how completion of the pipeline would promote American or European strategic interests. The White House reportedly urged Ukraine to withhold public criticism of the deal with Germany and also asked Ukrainian officials not to discuss the agreement with members of the U.S. Congress. The Biden administration warned Ukraine that going public with opposition to Nord Stream 2 could "damage the Washington-Kyiv bilateral relationship."
In November 2021, a classified German government document leaked to Axios, an American news website, showed that Germany urged the U.S. Congress not to impose sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. The document stated that opposition to the pipeline would "weaken the credibility of the U.S. government" and "seriously weaken transatlantic unity on Russia." It also claimed that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline poses "no threat" to Ukraine.
Geopolitical analysts on both sides of the Atlantic say that the pipeline deal will: 1) weaken American and strengthen Russian influence in Europe; 2) heighten divisions between the Eastern and Western European members of the European Union; 3) push some of the EU's eastern periphery closer to China; 4) deprive Ukraine of the transit fees it now collects on gas pumped through an existing pipeline and thereby undermine Kiev's struggle against Russian aggression; and 5) allow Putin to strong-arm Germany and the European Union by turning off deliveries of natural gas whenever he wants.
Failed Peace Talks
Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in an armed conflict since February 2014, when Russia occupied and annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Russia subsequently occupied much of the industrial Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Russia is accused of arming and financing a separatist uprising in Ukraine. The conflict has cost over 14,000 lives and left millions displaced.
In September 2014, Russia and Ukraine signed a peace plan — the Minsk Protocol — for eastern Ukraine. The Minsk-1 agreement was drafted by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. It failed to stop fighting in Donbas. The Minsk-2 agreement, signed in February 2015, was mediated by the leaders of France and Germany in the so-called Normandy Format. The new agreement contained 13 provisions, hardly any of which have been implemented. Russia and Ukraine have each accused each other of failing to honor the agreement.
In 2021, Russia built-up troops on Ukraine's borders on two separate occasions. In May, Moscow deployed around 100,000 troops near the border and in Crimea. In September, Russia deployed nearly 200,000 troops to Belarus, which shares a long border with Ukraine. Some military analysts described the deployments as rehearsals for a full-scale Russian offensive.
On December 2, during their meeting in Stockholm, Blinken, sitting alongside Lavrov, called for Russia to resume negotiations with Ukraine over the Minsk-2 agreement within the "Normandy Format," sponsored by France and Germany. Lavrov demanded that the United States create an alternate channel of dialogue directly with the Kremlin.
Some analysts believe the latest Russian troop build-up on the border is designed, at least in part, to force direct negotiations between Moscow and Washington, according to David Herszenhorn, chief Brussels correspondent for Politico. A separate channel of dialogue could undermine the Normandy Format and further divide the West by prying apart Europe and the United States.
In a recent column, David Ignatius, foreign affairs commentator for the Washington Post, revealed that such a separate channel may already be in operation. The Biden administration, he wrote, "had signaled support for an eventual diplomatic deal on Ukraine that would give Putin much of what he wanted."
Select Commentary
In an essay published by the Center for European Policy Analysis, analysts Edward Lucas, Ben Hodges and Carsten Schmiedl wrote:
"The Russian regime's foremost interest is its own hold on power. All policy, internal and external, stems from this overriding goal. The Kremlin sees the West, the European Union (EU), and NATO as threats to this stability, and as potential instigators of 'color revolutions' that will exploit Russia's ethnic, religious, political, and other fissures.
"The long-term goal is, therefore, a polycentric or multipolar world in which multilateral, rules-based organizations are unable to dictate terms to Russia. Instead, the Kremlin aims to be the dominant power in Eurasia, using Russia's size to exert strong influence over its neighbors and over small countries, and to bargain with big countries on an equal basis....
"The ongoing war in Ukraine gives Russia a semi-permanent seat in European security discussions, and exploits underlying differences between France and Germany on one side, and the United States and other European countries on the other."
Writing for the Poland-based Center for Eastern Studies, Russia expert Marek Menkiszak noted:
"Recent weeks have brought further displays of Russia's escalating aggressive rhetoric and actions towards Ukraine, including troop movements near its border, as well as use of energy as leverage. This raises questions about Moscow's intentions. Both the statements of Russian leaders and the policy of the Russian Federation in recent years indicate that it has not abandoned attempts to achieve one of its main policy objectives: restoring control over Ukraine. This is despite the fact that its actions to date — both limited military aggression and political, economic, and propaganda pressure — have only moved it further away from this goal. In the current conditions, with the stalemate in the Donbas conflict continuing, the Russian Federation is faced with a choice of its future strategy towards Ukraine. It has two main options: to escalate the armed conflict in the Donbas in order to achieve a rapid breakthrough, or to intensify long-term pressure, i.e. to play for Kyiv's gradual exhaustion. The choice of strategy depends on the Russian perception of the situation, the attitude of Ukraine itself, and the behavior of key Western actors....
"There are several arguments in favor of the escalation scenario. Firstly, Moscow is apparently impatient with the lack of results from its previous policy of pressure on Kyiv. Secondly, the longer Ukraine remains outside Moscow's strategic control, the further it distances itself from Moscow in all respects, and the stronger its independent existence becomes. Third, the Kremlin may see the current international situation as conducive to the implementation of such a plan.
"The first important factor here is Moscow's likely perception of the relative weakness of the US — a key actor that could prevent it from pursuing aggressive action against Ukraine. The Kremlin's initial fear of 'retribution' from the new Joe Biden administration for its interference in the 2016 presidential election seems to have given way to the belief that Washington is focused on domestic problems and the challenge from China, so it is seeking to improve relations with the Russian Federation. This may be evidenced by, among other things, decisions to drop further restrictions targeting the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a rather mild response to dangerous Russian cyberattacks on the United States (including on elements of its critical infrastructure), and an intensification of political and security (including arms control) dialogue with Moscow."
In an essay published by the US-based Jamestown Foundation, Ukrainian diplomat Olexander Scherba wrote:
"It is now November 2021, and Ukraine's warnings about Nord Stream Two were not heard. The pipeline, whose main purpose is to make Europe more dependent on Russia, was built — on Europe's dime but under Russian Gazprom's ownership and control. Nord Stream Two has yet to be certified, but it is already causing substantial problems.
"Because of the pipeline, the European Union is divided and Russia is all the more convinced that the EU is weak and corruptible. Moscow lobbyists around the world pontificate that, with energy demand as well as prices soaring, the West's 'green delusion' is finally over, and the world is back to an era of rule by nations that have what really counts: oil, gas and coal.
"For quite a while, Moscow has pursued a three-fold strategy: fool Europe, corrupt Europe, seduce Europe. The Nord Stream Two saga included all three elements. It fooled Europe by promising an unnecessary pipeline that was rooted in geopolitical expediency. It corrupted Europe, by hiring its former leaders to lucrative advisory contracts and allowing Europe to finance what it promised would eventually be a cash cow. With the pipeline certification under consideration, Russia is now in the seduction phase, promising that once Nord Stream Two is certified, gas supply problems, will go away. Of course, that is like saying that one more bottle of vodka will make alcoholism go away....
"Do not make the mistake of handing an essential part of Europe's future to a country that is demonstratively not the EU's friend. Time will not be kind to such decision or to those who made it."
In an essay published by the European Council on Foreign Relations, analyst Gustav Gressel concluded:
"Russia has a clear aim: to weaken Ukraine so much that it will be relatively easy to control the country's politics. Moscow can achieve this by forcing Kyiv to implement the Minsk agreement on its terms — which would establish a de facto Russian veto on Ukrainian domestic affairs — and by starting and exploiting anti-government revolts.
Alternatively, Moscow could pressure Washington to 'deliver' Ukraine by signing security guarantees that favored Russia. These guarantees would prohibit Ukraine from not only joining NATO but also engaging in any form of cooperation with the West that would strengthen its resilience. This would eventually force Ukraine back into Moscow's sphere of influence.
"Given these considerations, Kyiv may believe that it can either fight for independence now or be forced to do so later — probably in more challenging circumstances. Therefore, Kyiv may believe that it is worth standing up against a militarily superior enemy....
"If Russia's coercive strategy works well, there is no guarantee that it will stop with Ukraine. Russia's current alteration of the force structure in its Western Military District is partly directed against NATO. With Chinese-Russian military cooperation increasing, today's imponderables may become tomorrow's possibilities. American generals have long warned Europeans that, in the coming decades, the US may not be in a position to simultaneously protect its Asian and European allies against the threat of both China and Russia....
"Many European leaders do not seem to grasp the seriousness of the situation. One can see this in the defense of Nord Stream 2 in recently leaked German cables to members of the US Congress: Ukraine has a gun to its head, but the German government only seems worried about the survival of its pipeline. Berlin and Paris are resistant to a stronger NATO reaction — citing fears that Russia may feel threatened by a military capable Ukrainian state that has the support of the alliance. This is just the kind of poor judgement that enables Russian military aggression.
"For now, many eastern and central European nations may feel secure in the assumption that Washington will protect them by placing Moscow under diplomatic and military pressure. But they should not be complacent: while certain groups of think-tankers have been arguing for concessions to Russia since 2014, their ideas have gained a new resonance this time. A Washington preoccupied with countering Beijing may soon be willing to turn these arguments into policy — not for their brilliance, but for their convenience."
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
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The Poisonous Shaming of ‘Lebanese Liberals’
Hazem Saghieh/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
From time to time, there emerge those who shame “Lebanese liberals” (!?) for allying, sympathizing or going along with illiberal forces, both Lebanese and non-Lebanese. If we were to recall the initial meaning of liberalism, weakening the state and reducing the scope of its role, these “liberals” should work on weakening and shrinking the Lebanese state, and that applies to the economy, the army and the judiciary...In the actual Lebanese context, this shaming seems farcical. For what is demanded of these “liberals” is that they weaken the state, which is extremely weak in the first place, while the parallel state, which is devastatingly powerful, Hezbollah, grows stronger. According to those mocking them, only thus would they be genuine liberals at peace with their ideas and themselves.
On top of that: these “liberals” should rid themselves of any support for or alliance with non-liberals, whether they are domestic or foreign forces. They must reject the “conflict of axes” on their soil and renounce any ties to factions that had once been armed militias. Isn’t liberalism opposed to militias and weaponry? Complying with these “innocent” demands means at least two things: first, that the “liberals” forget that there is one axis threatening life in Lebanon today, the Iranian axis and its vassals, given its control over decisions of war and peace and the fact that it is responsible for Lebanon’s isolation, and so the lion’s share of the responsibility for the ongoing catastrophic economic crisis and plummeting living conditions. As for the second, it is that they also forget that the only militia that remains so, a militia that is gaining strength and expanding, is Hezbollah.
Only by complying with these two recommendations does their “liberalism” become commendable and genuine, as it leaves them equivocating between the defunct militias that the Phalangists (Kataeb), Lebanese Forces, Progressive Socialist Party, and Amal Movement had been and the 100,000-man army that the Hezbollah secretary-general told us, or warned us, about recently.
Here, a clarification must be made: the primary criteria for separating friend from foe in Lebanon today is: who is immersing us in war? Whose strategy is based on the assumption of war, if not its inevitability, and operates on the principle of “defending us against our will?”
Naturally, it would be preferable if the forces who do not intend to immerse us in war, the supposed allies of the “liberals,” were supportive of liberty, individualism, gender equality, bridging the gap between classes, anti-racism and other known virtues. However, if they are not, that does not deprive them of the virtue of combating wars that would ravage the country and its people (and wars, by the way, are liberalism’s staunchest enemy). That is because the most pressing danger today is not the state’s encroachment on citizens’ lives and freedoms, but the parallel state’s encroachment on the state and the vast majority of its citizens. It is precisely here that we find the specter of being dragged into a deadly war without our opinion on the matter being asked after having been dragged into a superficial peace built on totally unequal access to the tools of force.
In truth, liberalism, perhaps with the partial exception of the letters concerning ‘toleration’ written by the “father of liberalism,” John Lock, has not faced circumstances like ours, that is, threats to a country’s existence, besides its sovereignty, and the rise of an armed state stronger than that of the country it arose in, a country whose state is supposedly democratic and represents its people.
Facing such challenges, liberalism neither helps nor impedes. It emerged, in eighteenth-century Europe, from tensions between the state and collective on the one hand and the individual and liberty on the other. What applies to liberalism also applies to all the other modern ideologies when they are faced with genocide or semi-genocidal circumstances: did the rise of Nazism in nineteen-thirties Germany not lead to Moscow and the communists of the world’s adoption of national and popular front theories that left them fighting alongside the “bourgeoisie”, or Stalin’s reconciliation with the Russian church during the Second World War? Didn’t Mao Zedong reconcile with Chiang Kai-shek to face the Japanese occupation?
However, the “ruse” is not complete before we remember that those doing the shaming are not defending liberal purity or orthodoxy. Indeed, they sympathize with Hezbollah and the Wilayat e-Faqih system of governance, and they strive to provide the most suitable terms for them. Every breath they take exudes hatred for liberalism and Lebanon at the same time. With that, they could see these “liberals” fondly if the latter were to abandon every friendship and sympathy they may have and focus on working to shrink and weaken the Lebanese state! Such shaming is more of a hypocritical war tactic backed up by a culture that distinguishes between what is permissible to “us,” everything, from combining Bakunin and Khomeini to blending Marx and Khamenei, and what is not permissible to those who are not “us.” They are prohibited from everything. That is because “we” hold the truth, the entire truth, and the weapons, all the weapons, and we leave them with only treachery and slander.

The Fear, the Window and the Train
Ghassan Charbel/Asharq Al-Awsat/December 06/2021
Opening the window doesn't necessarily mean entering the storm, approaching chaos or threatening one's identity. There is no room in the new world for the fearful, for those who hesitate in trying or taking chances or risks, for those who do not accept competition or are unprepared for them.
Countries are no longer judged based on the strength of their armies or their ability to wage attacks or worry their neighbors. This is a world of numbers, not of fears or delusions. Your real fortress is a vibrant economy that belongs to the present moment of the world and that is open to progress. Your strength lies in flexibility and renewal, not in remaining unchanging. It lies in taking the initiative and innovating, not on looking back to eras gone by. Your identity deepens and becomes richer by embracing diversity and differences. Your immunity is consolidated by having the youth join in shaping the future.
It is a new world with new conditions. The first condition is an education that teaches about successive scientific and technological revolutions. Gone is the age of closed fortresses that fear interacting with the unknown and those who are alien to them. There is a need for a university that hones capabilities and provides opportunities, not just jobs. A university that consolidates skills and creates others. Graduates must be readily capable to constantly learn and renew themselves. There is no room for early contentment that is akin to early retirement.
Opening the window allows the individual to learn and for his capabilities to give him an opportunity to land a job. Opening the window allows him to become a productive partner in shaping a dynamic economy that provides a decent life that can provide success, hope and joy.
Opening the window is part of a clear vision that repels dangers, instead of attracting them. China today boasts the world's second strongest economy and is alarming Washington withe advent of the "Chinese age". The land of Mao Zedong could not have reached this position without Deng Xiaoping, the son of the Chinese revolution with a keen eye on spotting weaknesses. He realized that failure to open the window will spell the end of the regime and drown the world's largest country in poverty and despair. Can we even imagine a China that is being torn apart and exporting refugees to its neighbors and the world?
Opening the window was not easy. There was always the "old guard" that prefers to be weighed down by concerns over taking the initiative to go through a test. The old guard fears different ideas and new ways. But change demands a vision and someone who can light the flame and attract determined people. It demands trial and error and pumping new blood in society. It also needs to overcome walls that have long thought to be insurmountable or built to last forever. Opening the window needs a convincing idea, an attractive dream and an extraordinary man. Above all, it needs to uproot the trees of fear that have dug themselves deep in the soil and the people's minds.
As I visited Riyadh, which has become a destination for several events and source of initiatives, I recalled how the Chinese window was opened. I remembered, as an Arab journalist, cities that are burdened by fear and that continue to take pills that have long expired.
Cities are living creatures. They can feel joy and sadness, fatigue and regret, they grow up and become wiser. They grow old and begin to show their age. They can hide their emotions for a long time before suddenly erupting. They destroy symbols and remove road signs. In these cities, this wandering journalist met many people. He met decision-makers and those who would harm them if they had the chance. In the majority of Arab capitals, this journalist met with an Arab citizen called fear, who enjoyed the rank of general.
I am not exaggerating. The smell of fear would engulf me before I returned to my hotel room. It used to accompany me at my farewell at the airport after a trip in search of an interview or a story. It was no secret that this trip of fear destroyed several maps and capitals. It can also be said that it has destroyed entire generations. Fear captures the imagination before it captures people. The captured imagination drowns in bitterness and spite. The father worries that he would transmit his infection to his children, whose dreams would be paralyzed by fear. Students grow up in the cradle of fear. They fear their fellow colleagues at university and at work. The citizen constantly feels that he is being watched from morning to night; that his dreams are being monitored and that reports about him are being sent to the side that never sleeps.
Cities used to be afraid of tourists. They feared that they would expose their fragility or sell their secrets. Security agencies used to recruit taxi drivers to keep their eyes on the tourists if they took a photo this place or that. Men with concealed weapons used to shadow the strangers just as radars detect infiltrating planes. There are many kinds of fear: The fear one map has of another map; a small fear and a large fear; fear of poverty and fear of the rich; fear of civilians from the military; fear of the military from the military; the fear of one side of the other; the fear of minorities and the fears of the sons of the poverty belt; fears that the constitution would be molded to the whims of the strong. Fear has devoured institutions and depleted budgets. Fear has devoured the capabilities of the regular citizen and their right to smile and enjoy life. Fear has devoured the capabilities of universities and research centers and the right to ask questions and innovate. Fear has hollowed out normal life and left collapse as the only choice against any change.
The worst thing committed by fear is assassinate hope. It is guilty of the crime of giving off the impression that there is no hope and nothing on the horizon. Closing off the horizon will only pave the way for extremism, a clash and an explosion. Suicidal tendencies are born out of the dark maps. Light helps find hope. Opening the windows will reopen horizons and liberate the minds.
Arabs long that all our capitals can kill an old enemy called fear of the age of progress, openness and engaging with the world. I visited Riyadh Boulevard and witnessed a place that was flooded with people and different colors. The will to live and progress without fear and with absolute confidence. A river of visitors from different parts of the world. Companies, investment, songs, tourists, art and dedication to the environment and climate. The Saudi youths are racing to build an experience that inspires the region and world.
The Saudi state is awake, is bold and is taking the initiative. The numbers validate its ambitions. This country has opened the window and embarked on the train headed towards the future. Progress, success and quality of life. Mohammed bin Salman lit the spark of renaissance and the youth have embraced it to shape a different fate. Every country has the right to find its way. The Saudi experience certainly confirms the Arabs' ability to advance, compete and shape a better future for their children. Breaking the fear is a condition for joining the train and hope is the best advisor.

U.S. and Europe Must Counter Potential Weapons-Grade Enrichment by Iran
Andrea Stricker/FDD/December 06/2021
Israel has shared intelligence with the United States and other allies indicating the Islamic Republic of Iran plans to enrich uranium to 90 percent purity, the level necessary for nuclear weapons. This unprecedented move would test whether there is any Iranian nuclear advance that would spur the Biden administration and its European allies to impose punitive measures rather than pursue negotiations regardless of Tehran’s provocations.
Both Axios and CNN reported Jerusalem’s warning, yet the only specific basis they identified for the Israeli conclusion was a broad finding that Iran is taking “technical steps” to prepare for 90 percent enrichment. Israeli analysts further assess that Tehran’s plan represents an effort to gain leverage at the indirect talks between Iran and the United States aimed at reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. The talks resumed in Vienna on Monday.
Separately, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Wednesday that Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20 percent purity in a cascade of advanced centrifuges at the deeply buried Fordow plant. At Fordow, separate cascades of 1,044 early-model centrifuges known as IR-1s already enrich uranium to 20 percent purity. The new model, or IR-6, is far more efficient, thus reducing the number of centrifuges required. The new arrangement at Fordow could enable Iran to quickly enrich 20 percent uranium to weapons-grade purity in a facility that is fortified against air strikes. Twenty percent enrichment represents more than 90 percent of the effort required to make weapons-grade material.
Since May 2019, Tehran has deliberately escalated its violations of the 2015 nuclear accord, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), from which the Trump administration withdrew in May 2018. During U.S. and European efforts to revive the JCPOA over the past year, Iran’s nuclear advances have become more egregious and its appetite for brinkmanship more pronounced.
In January 2021, Iran resumed enriching uranium to 20 percent purity, which it had not done since 2013. Just days after nuclear negotiations started in early April, Tehran began enriching uranium to 60 percent, which it had never done before.
At its quarterly meetings, however, the IAEA Board of Governors has declined to admonish Iran. The board has the authority to demand Iranian compliance with its nonproliferation obligations and, if necessary, to refer Tehran to the UN Security Council. Prior to each IAEA gathering this year, Iran has threatened to reduce international monitoring of its nuclear activities, destroy IAEA safeguards data, or refrain from negotiating restraints.
The passivity of the international community contrasts with its response to earlier provocations. In 2010, for example, when Tehran first began producing 20 percent enriched uranium, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1929, which imposed far-reaching sanctions, including arms and missile embargos and a ban on Iranian missile tests.Iran’s 20 percent enrichment also set off a wave of U.S. sanctions, including key penalties against Tehran’s petroleum and financial sectors. The European Union followed suit with measures of its own. Arguably, this resolute response and the subsequent roiling of the Iranian economy led Tehran to negotiate an interim nuclear deal by 2013. Washington and its European partners are sorely overdue in scheduling a special IAEA board meeting to censure Iran for its nuclear advances and other safeguards violations to date. Such censure ought to include a deadline after which Tehran’s failure to comply would result in board referral of Iran’s case to the UN Security Council.
*Andrea Stricker is a research fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where she also contributes to FDD’s Iran Program, International Organizations Program, and Center on Military and Political Power (CMPP). For more analysis from Andrea, the Iran Program, the International Organizations Program, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Andrea on Twitter @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

Lebanese Journalist Defends Morocco's Hosting Of Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, Purchase Of Israeli Weapons
MEMRI/December 06/2021
Lebanon, North Africa | Special Dispatch No. 9664
The historic visit to Morocco by Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz in November 2021, and the signing of a security cooperation agreement between the two countries, sparked considerable criticism against Morocco in the Arab world, in particular from Palestinians. A statement issued by Fatah denounced the "normalization" agreements between the "Israeli occupation" and Morocco, and accused Morocco of "stabbing Jerusalem in the back," especially given that this country has headed the Jerusalem Committee of the Organization for Islamic Cooperation since 1975. The statement added that "these moves pave the way to Morocco's relinquishment of its national and religious duty towards Palestine."[1] Hamas too issued a statement "harshly condemning" the agreement, and stating that "Morocco's retreat in the direction of the enemy" only "contaminates the sovereignty" of this Arab country.[2]
In response to the criticism, Lebanese journalist Khairallah Khairallah published an article in the London-based Emirati daily Al-Arab in which he defended Morocco's hosting of Gantz and signing of the security agreement with Israel. He wrote that the critics, spewing "populist slogans and trapped in the defeats and complexes of the past," do not understand that Morocco is merely looking out for its interests and seeking to benefit its people. He also accused the critics of exploiting the Palestinian cause, noting that even Yasser Arafat signed the Oslo Accords with Israel, which meant mutual recognition between the two sides. Morocco's enemies, he said, are disappointed that President Biden has not revoked his predecessor's recognition of Morocco's sovereignty over the Western Sahara. But Morocco, he concluded, is entitled to purchase Israeli weapons to defend itself against Algeria, which is seeking to escalate the conflict between them.
Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita (right) and Israeli Foreign Minister Benny Gantz (Source: Elaph.com, November 24, 2021)
The following are translated excerpts from Khairallah's article:[3]
"The populist slogans brandished by Arab or Palestinian elements against the visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Benny Gantz to Morocco are amusing, but loathsome. As if Morocco ever kept anyone from liberating Palestine. Morocco is [simply] putting its own interests above anything else. It wants [to promote] the good and wellbeing of the Moroccan people, and it has [indeed] become an advanced country with infrastructures at the level of any respectable European state. Morocco respects itself and does not need lessons from anyone – especially from chronically ill people who are still impressed with defeats, of from the ones who plan these defeats.
"The brandishing of these populist slogans stems first of all from ignorance, which exists at every level, regarding Morocco, [a country] that has a special status but at the same time has different ambitions. [The chief of these ambitions] is to belong to the 21st century and continue to combat poverty and backwardness, so as to strengthen the kingdom in light of the challenges it faces.
"The brandishing of populist slogans against Morocco these days proves that there are two Arab worlds: one that seeks to embrace the future and the technological revolution, and another that is trapped in the past and in every kind of backwardness. Those who brandish populist slogans against Morocco remember nothing, not even the fact that Egypt – the greatest Arab country – signed a peace agreement with Israel in March 1979, and that Jordan signed a similar agreement in October 1994, but only after Yasser Arafat, executive council head of the PLO, signed the Oslo Accords… Abu Amar [i.e., Arafat] did not sign this agreement with ghosts, but with Yitzhak Rabin, Israel's prime minister at the time. The only real significance of the Oslo Accords… was mutual recognition between the Israeli government and the PLO. So what is the problem with Morocco welcoming an Israeli official or obtaining Israeli technology, given that [even] the PLO recognizes Israel, and when every Palestinian official in the West Bank needs Israeli permission to leave it and special permission to return?
"These populists forget that the PLO was recognized as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people at a 1974 Arab summit that was held in in the Moroccan capital of Rabat, not anywhere else.
"The main thing is that the Moroccan caravan should move on, disregarding what is being published by all those wretched people who trade in the Palestinian cause. These people know nothing of Morocco and of the history of its culture. They do not understand that Morocco makes progress because it refuses to trade in the Palestinian cause. In fact, Morocco promotes this cause in its own special ways, especially since Israel has one million citizens of Moroccan origin who still have ties with their original homeland and a sense of loyalty to it… But the most important thing of all is that a spirit of tolerance prevails in Morocco, and that [its] king, Mohamed VI, is the Commander of the Faithful [i.e., the caliph], responsible for every Moroccan citizen, Muslim or Jewish, and for everyone living on Moroccan soil.
"One year ago, before Donald Trump left the White House, the U.S. administration recognized the [Western] Sahara as Moroccan territory. At that time Morocco renewed its relations with Israel, which were suspended in late 2000 because of the [Second] Palestinian Intifada. Morocco's enemies were counting on the new American administration to reconsider the Trump's administration's decision. But a meeting between Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed that the U.S. has not changed its position on the Sahara. The chagrin felt by Morocco's enemies explains why these wretched people renewed their campaign against it. The U.S. administration realized that the Moroccan proposal regarding the Sahara was 'the only game in town,' as the Americans say, and this upset [Morocco's enemies]. [Today] there is increasing American and international support for the plan, proposed by Morocco several years ago, of expanded autonomy [for the Western Sahara] under Moroccan sovereignty.
"Defending the Moroccan interest has remained the top priority. This interest requires being prepared for any surprises originating in Algeria or anywhere else, for [Algeria] has long been acting to escalate the situation with its peaceful neighbor [Morocco], which has never attacked anyone. If Israeli weapons, such as drones, serve the Moroccan interest, why is that a problem? The main point is the effectiveness of these weapons in case of an attack on Morocco. Such an attack is not unlikely, considering some of the statements made by the Polisario [i.e., the Sahrawi Nationalist Liberation Movement, claiming independence for the Western Sahara], which is nothing but an Algerian tool. Escalation vis-a-vis Morocco will certainly not help Algeria overcome its crisis, nor will it solve any of the problems of [the Algerian] regime, which has been overtaken by the military establishment, unless this regime shows willingness to first of all make peace with its own people.
"Yes, in our present era there are two Arab worlds: one that looks to the future and sees Morocco as one of its leading symbols, and another which insists on staying trapped in the defeats and complexes of the past. Morocco is not the only [country] looking to the future. Those who brandish populist slogans must understand that the entire region is changing. Who would have thought that Jordan and Israel would reach a UAE-brokered deal to swap solar energy and desalinated water?... Jordan is considered to be one of the world's most water-poor countries. [So] why shouldn't it find a practical way to obtain water and end the suffering of its citizens? Is it [a better] solution to let the Jordanian agriculture die? Or does the solution lie in seeking beneficial ways to give the Jordanians hope of a better future?"
[1] The statement also condemned Morocco's hosting of Gantz, "who prayed in a [Moroccan] synagogue for the occupation soldiers, who murder Palestinians every day and desecrate the sanctity of Al-Aqsa." It added that "the establishment of security ties between the Israeli occupation and Morocco is a crushing blow to the Arab peace initiative, which is based on the principle of territory for peace," and wondered "what benefit Morocco derives from security agreements with the Israeli occupation at this time," especially given that "it is presently in a state of conflict with [Israel]." Twitter.com/fatehorg, November 28, 2021.
[2] Hamas.ps, November 27, 2021.
[3] Al-Arab (London), November 29, 2021.
https://www.memri.org/reports/lebanese-journalist-defends-moroccos-hosting-israeli-defense-minister-benny-gantz-purchase

Palestinian support for one-state solution is surging
Joseph Dana/The Arab Weekly/December 06/2021
For close observers of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the latest opinion polling concerning support for the two-state solution among Palestinians should not be surprising. According to data released last month by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre, backing for establishing a Palestinian state alongside Israel is steadily decreasing. At the same time, support for a one-state solution and ending the occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem is surging among Palestinians.
The trend lines of Palestinian public opinion have been crystalising around these sentiments for years. The question now is how long the leadership on both sides of the conflict will maintain the status quo before Palestinians return to the streets in force. The crown jewel of the status quo is the Palestinian Authority.
It is not challenging to see why support for the two-state solution is tanking. Palestinians have watched Israel entrench its occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem to an unprecedented degree over the last two decades with little or no pushback from the international community. What is left of the peace process is barely given lip service from all sides after Donald Trump acquiesced to several Israeli demands, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem.
Even more disturbing for Palestinians is that many Arab states established relations or set up robust peace agreements with Israel in the absence of an equitable solution to the conflict. A significant carrot for Israel to strike a genuine peace agreement with the Palestinians was the normalisation of relations between Israel and the Arab world as well as the American recognition of Israel’s claims over Jerusalem. Both have happened with zero change to Israel’s occupation of Palestinian land or control over Palestinian life. If anything, Israel has been encouraged by this new international support to solidify the occupation.
The picture is equally bleak when it comes to internal Palestinian matters. The Palestinian leadership is disconnected and out of touch with the stewing anger on the street. Having failed to stop Trump’s destruction of the peace process or Israel’s rapprochement with Arab countries, many Palestinians have been left wondering how their ageing leadership can guide them going forward.
At the same time, the gap between the Hamas leadership in Gaza and the Palestine Liberation Organisation leadership in the West Bank does not show any sign of closing. The 86-year-old Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, is approaching his 20th year of a four-year term, having recently cancelled legislative elections. More than 70 percent of those polled said that Abbas should swiftly announce a new date for elections. Despite the severe nature of Palestinians’ challenges, these problems are not fundamentally new.
While significant changes to the status quo do not appear imminent, Israel is so concerned about the long-term stability of the Palestinian Authority that it is frantically lobbying European and Arab allies to raise their donations to Abbas. On the surface, Israel’s calls for financial support for the PA might seem counterintuitive, but they reveal the internal logic of the occupation.
The PA has become Israel’s most effective tool for the continued suppression of the Palestinian people. The PA security forces, trained and equipped by Israel, the United States and Jordan, are the first line of defence for Israeli interests in the West Bank. Any Palestinian protest against the occupation is met first with PA security forces. Through donations from European and Arab countries, the PA can dole out enough money to keep Palestinian civil servants docile and unwilling to risk everything with a new intifada. Palestinians would be free to wage a sustained non-violent campaign against the Israeli occupation without the PA standing in the way, much like the First Intifada that started in the late 1980s. Israel has done everything in its power to ensure that nothing like the First Intifada ever returns to the streets of the West Bank and Gaza.
It will keep this strategy alive through more support of the PA. In recent years, donations to the Palestinian Authority have dwindled from $1.3 billion in 2011 to a few hundred million. This has caused some in the Israeli government, like Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Frej, to directly lobby European countries to increase donations saying that it was in Israel’s interest for the PA to be “strong and stable.”
One does not need an advanced degree in Middle East politics to see how the dynamics of fed-up Palestinians who cannot get away from the long arm of Israel’s occupation are creating a tinderbox. Israel learned well how to maximise its control over a restless population from the examples of apartheid, South Africa and Rhodesia. Its unique model of domination has shown much more longevity than other similar regimes. History, however, teaches us that such minority regimes based on unequal and discriminatory behaviour do not last forever. The occupation might appear ironclad, but it will change and transform in the future. The stability of the Palestinian Authority is the best barometer of when change will take root in Palestine. When the PA crumbles, the conflict will enter a new and uncharted chapter.