English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 06/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december06.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Among those who are born of women there has not
arisen anyone greater than John the Baptizer; yet he who is least in the Kingdom
of Heaven is greater than he
Matthew 11/11-15: Most certainly I tell you, among those who are born of women
there has not arisen anyone greater than John the Baptizer; yet he who is least
in the Kingdom of Heaven is greater than he. From the days of John the Baptizer
until now, the Kingdom of Heaven suffers violence, and the violent take it by
force. For all the prophets and the law prophesied until John. If you are
willing to receive it, this is Elijah, who is to come. He who has ears to hear,
let him hear.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December 05-06/2022
Cabinet meets as Boujikian secures quorum for FPM-boycotted session
Mikati to FPM: Protecting constitution can't be achieved through people's death
Hezbollah ministers say keen on constitution and 'people's pain'
FPM MP lashes out at Mikati-Shiite Duo 'doika'
Bukhari to Lebanese-Saudi Business Council: KSA keen to ensure Saudi-Lebanese
relations at their best
Bou Saab chairs joint session over Capital Control bill: Old deposits shall keep
their actual value
Berri broaches political developments with MP Skaff, meets Bahia Hariri, chairs
“Development and Liberation” bloc meeting
Rahi begins Jordan visit
Lebanon set for $1.5 billion cash boost from influx of 700,000 visitors
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 05-06/2022
Iran: Almost Three Months of Anti-hijab Protests
Iranian City Shops Shut to Step up Pressure on Clerical Rulers
Israeli intelligence chiefs see Tehran surviving protests, for now
Iraq Tightens Border Security with Iran
Algerian President, Jordanian King Sign 5 Cooperation Agreements
Russia Launches New Missile Attacks, Ukrainians Head For Shelters
Kremlin Says Western Oil Price Cap Will Not Hinder Military Operation in Ukraine
Putin drove across a newly fixed bridge to Crimea that was blown up. It is the
closest he's come to his war in Ukraine.
Blasts reported at Russian air base where satellite images showed an 'unusual'
amount of activity
Russia to sell discounted crude to Pakistan -minister
UAE leader makes surprise visit to Qatar following boycott
Two dead as protesters, police clash in southern Syria
Israeli army kills Palestinian during West Bank arrest raid
Sudanese Civilian Parties Sign Framework Deal for New Political Transition
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 05-06/2022
World War III Begins With Forgetting/Stephen Wertheim/The New York
Times/December, 05/2022
Daesh continues its inexorable rise to ascendancy in Africa/Baria Alamuddin/Arab
News/December 05, 2022
Iranian women deserve full support/Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/December 05, 2022
on December 05-06/2022
Cabinet meets as Boujikian secures quorum
for FPM-boycotted session
Naharnet/Monday, 5 December, 2022
The caretaker cabinet convened Monday morning at the Grand Serail after two
ministers defied a declared Free Patriotic Movement boycott and secured quorum
for a session described by caretaker PM Najib Mikati as an emergency meeting. A
statement released overnight had declared a boycott of the session. The
statement carried the names of the caretaker ministers of foreign affairs,
justice, defense, economy, social affairs, energy, tourism, industry and the
displaced. A two-thirds quorum was however secured for the session by caretaker
Industry Minister George Boujikian of the Tashnag Party which is allied with the
FPM. Caretaker Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar later joined the session
and voiced an opposing stance before walking out of it after failing to convince
Mikati to stop it. "I understand the humanitarian issues but the problem is
somewhere else and this government has not won (parliamentary) confidence, and
we should have consulted with each other to run the country's affairs," Hajjar
said after his withdrawal. "I asked caretaker PM Najib Mikati to make a step
backwards, but he insisted on continuing the session, so I voiced my stance and
walked out," Hajjar added. Speaking after the session, Mikati said decisions
were taken in the file of the cancer, dialysis and incurable diseases patients
and in the file of OGERO's funds. Social aid for servicemen and pensioners was
also approved according to caretaker Information Minister Ziad Makari. Mikati
also said that some agenda articles were dropped based on the request of some
ministers, revealing that there will be a meeting at 3pm for the ministers who
attended and those who boycotted to "agree on a work mechanism."Responding to
media reports in some newspapers, Mikati stressed that there is no "king
minister" and that all ministers are "servants of the Lebanese."
Mikati had argued that the caretaker cabinet needs to approve urgent matters,
including a decree related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis
patients. The FPM has meanwhile repeatedly warned against holding cabinet
sessions amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack
on the president’s powers.
Mikati to FPM: Protecting constitution can't be achieved
through people's death
Naharnet/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Monday strongly defended a cabinet
meeting boycotted by the Free Patriotic Movement and suggested that the FPM does
not care about the “death” of cancer and dialysis patients. “The session that we
are holding today is extraordinary par excellence and the most urgent thing in
it is the medical file, which necessitated it, and it is related to the rights
of cancer and dialysis patients,” Mikati said at the beginning of the session at
the Grand Serail. “If it wasn’t for this file, we would not have called for this
session, but if some are taking the constitution and coexistence as an excuse,
we tell them that they cannot be achieved through the people’s death, and in any
case this will not take place at our hands,” the caretaker PM added. “Today we
have reached a point at which we are no longer capable to spend on cancer and
dialysis patients, so do some want us to commit a mass crime against them? If
this is what’s needed, then let’s refrain from shouldering responsibility and
let every party bear the responsibility for its actions and their
repercussions,” Mikati went on to say. Addressing all Lebanese and all
spiritual, parliamentary, political and social leaders, Mikati added: “If they
want the country to fully collapse, I’m not pleased with this mission in which I
receive hundreds of requests while being unable of fulfilling them.” He added:
“We will carry on with shouldering our responsibilities no matter the
difficulties and I reiterate the call for speeding up the process of electing a
president.”An FPM ally, caretaker Industry Minister George Boujikian of the
Tashnag Party, secured quorum for the session amid the boycott of seven
ministers. Caretaker Social Affairs Minister Hector Hajjar briefly attended the
meeting to voice an opposing stance. The FPM has repeatedly warned against
holding cabinet sessions amid the ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a
move as an attack on the president’s powers.
Hezbollah ministers say keen on constitution and 'people's
pain'
Naharnet/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Two Hezbollah ministers on Monday defended their participation in a caretaker
cabinet session boycotted by the ministers of the Free Patriotic Movement and
ex-president Michel Aoun. “We are keen on the constitution and all its details,
because it is the regulator of the lives of the Lebanese, and on the other hand
we address the people’s interests,” caretaker Labor Minister Mustafa Bayram said
after the session. “Our call for the election of a president who would reflect
the aspirations of the Lebanese is constant, and the government is meanwhile
concerned with acting in caretaker capacity. Accordingly, we respect those who
attended and those who boycotted but in the first place the constitution should
have been respect,” Bayram added. “We call for dialogue for resolving all
matters,” the minister went on to say. “The situation is extraordinary and a
prior discussion took place over the agenda, which was exclusively limited to
the urgent matters,” Bayram added. Caretaker Public Works Minister Ali Hamiyeh
for his part said “people’s pain” was what brought Hezbollah’s ministers to the
session. “We rejected the items related to VAT and the new customs tariff and we
added urgent items to the session,” Hamiyeh added. Caretaker PM Najib Mikati had
argued that the caretaker cabinet needs to approve urgent matters, including a
decree related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis patients. The
FPM has meanwhile repeatedly warned against holding cabinet sessions amid the
ongoing presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack on the
president’s powers.
FPM MP lashes out at Mikati-Shiite Duo 'doika'
Naharnet/Monday, 5 December, 2022
MP Salim Aoun of the Free Patriotic Movement on Monday blasted caretaker PM
Najib Mikati for holding a meeting for the caretaker cabinet despite the FPM’s
boycott and rejection, noting that Mikati “should have formed a cabinet” in the
five months that followed his appointment as PM-designate. Ridiculing Mikati’s
argument that the session was held for humanitarian reasons related to cancer
and dialysis patients, Aoun said that “he whose heart is this tender should have
formed a government throughout five months.”“It seems that we are heading to the
approach of challenge and provocation,” the MP added, in an interview on al-Jadeed
TV. “PM Mikati, those behind him and those who agree with him must realize the
gravity of what happened today, which is considered hegemony over power, and the
previous troika (Elias Hrawi, Nabih Berri, Rafik Hariri) is better than the
Mikati-(Shiite) Duo ‘doika,’’” Aoun said. Moreover, the lawmaker warned that the
issue is “not a joke.” “This file will have very major repercussions and the
danger lies in the fact that we have broken something very dear to the hearts of
half of the Lebanese, which is partnership,” Aoun added. “This government does
not enjoy parliament’s confidence and there is no conformity to the National
Pact in terms of Christian representation. Let us imagine what would have
happened had the issue been in reverse,” the legislator said. Mikati had argued
that the caretaker cabinet needed to approve urgent matters, including a decree
related to medical services offered to cancer and dialysis patients. The FPM has
meanwhile repeatedly warned against holding cabinet sessions amid the ongoing
presidential vacuum, labeling such a move as an attack on the president’s
powers.
Bukhari to Lebanese-Saudi Business Council: KSA keen to
ensure Saudi-Lebanese relations at their best
NNA/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon, Walid Bukhari, on Monday welcomed a delegation
representing the Lebanese-Saudi Business Council. Ambassador Bukhari welcomed
the Council's delegation and stressed that the KSA was keen to ensure that
Saudi-Lebanese relations were at their best. “The KSA is keen on helping Lebanon
and on developing its economic relations with it, but it also looks forward to
having the Lebanese state play its role in dealing with systematic smuggling
operations, especially those of drugs to the KSA, and for Lebanon to adhere to
international standards that allow it to safely export Lebanese products to the
Kingdom and the rest of the Gulf countries,” Bukhari added. "Despite the many
difficulties in Lebanon, I am optimistic that the coming period will bring about
breakthroughs that will help alleviate the suffering of the Lebanese and help
them live in safety, peace, and prosperity,” the KSA diplomat added.
Bou Saab chairs joint session over Capital Control bill: Old deposits shall keep
their actual value
NNA/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Joint parliamentary committees on Monday held a session over the Capital Control
bill chaired by Deputy House Speaker, Elias Bou Saab. “It has turned out that we
unanimously agree on the Capital Control method to guarantee that old deposits
preserve their actual value,” Bou Saab said in the wake of the session. “We’ve
reached an understanding over the texts that confirm that old deposits shall
keep their actual value (…) and discussed the means to restore confidence in the
country,” he added. Bou Saab also noted that a decision has been made to form a
committee of financial experts to be tasked to follow up on the capital control
bill and decide on its working mechanism. “It is true that the Minister of
Finance is a member of it, but the bulk of the work will be done by a group of
financial experts, who will be appointed by the government as a whole,” Bou Saab
added, noting that their appointment is not solely limited to the prime
minister.“We have reached a formula that protects old money and new deposits,
and it will be discussed in the next session. We have entered a serious stage,”
Bou Saab explained. “There remains a point involving lawsuits and complaints
against banks. There are many ideas that will be proposed to us to strike a
balance. We do not want funds to travel outside Lebanon and delay
implementation; we seek to protect depositors in Lebanon, yet at the same time,
we encourage investments,” the deputy house speaker added.
Berri broaches political developments with MP Skaff,
meets Bahia Hariri, chairs “Development and Liberation” bloc meeting
NNA/Monday, 5 December, 2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Monday received at the Second Presidency in Ain
El-Tineh MP, Dr. Ghassan Skaff. Discussions reportedly touched on the current
general situation and the most recent political developments in the country.
Speaker Berri also met with President of the Hariri Foundation for Sustainable
Human Development, former MP Bahia Hariri, with whom he discussed the current
general situation and an array of developmental affairs. On the other hand,
Speaker Berri presided over a periodic meeting for the “Liberation and
Development” parliamentary bloc, at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh. The
meeting reportedly discussed the current general situation in the country and
the latest political, economic, daily living and health developments, in
addition to legislative affairs. In an issued statement read out by MP Ayyoub
Hmayyid, it said that the bloc renewed its call to all parliamentary blocs to
adopt the logic of dialogue in order to reach consensus on a unified
parliamentary approach that leads to getting out of the vacuum crisis of the
concept of the state and its powers and achieving the election of a president of
the republic capable of bringing together the Lebanese and facing challenges.
Rahi begins Jordan visit
NNA/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Beshara Rahi on Monday started an official and
pastoral visit to Jordan. In Amman, he visited Saint Charbel Parish, where he
was received by Jordanian Culture Minister Hayfa Najjar, Lebanese Chargé
d'Affaires Youssef Rajji, a number of Jordanian ministers and MPs, and members
of the Lebanese diaspora. In his word, the prelate heaped praise on the historic
ties and solid friendship between Lebanon and Jordan.
Lebanon set for $1.5 billion cash boost from influx of 700,000 visitors
Najia Houssari/Arab News/December 05, 2022
Despite session boycott, Lebanese Cabinet approves $35m spending on medicines,
assistance for military, pensioners
BEIRUT: Lebanon was on Monday preparing for a much-needed $1.5 billion cash
injection with tourist chiefs predicting an influx of around 700,000 visitors
over the coming days.
With the festive holiday season fast-approaching, hoteliers were reporting an
upsurge in bookings on last year as the country temporarily began to put its
economic and political woes to one side.
Decorative lights and trees, traditional markets, music festivals, and other
popular events and activities were set to lift the nation’s gloom as Lebanese,
expats, and foreign trippers were expected to flood into Beirut and coastal
resorts.
And there was even some cheer on Monday from Lebanon’s caretaker Cabinet after
it accepted a request for the central bank to release $35 million to buy
medicines for dialysis and cancer patients, milk for children, plus financial
assistance for the military and pensioners.
However, the Cabinet session was not held without acrimony as ministers of the
Free Patriotic Movement boycotted the meeting over the continued political
deadlock in Lebanon.
Addressing the session, Prime Minister Najib Mikati said: “We can no longer
spend money to help cancer and dialysis patients. Do they (the FPM) want us to
commit a collective crime?
“If that is what they are asking, then we won’t assume our responsibility and
let everyone assume the consequences of their actions. “If they want the country
to collapse completely, I will not contribute to the crime of killing patients.”
Although the upcoming holiday season would provide a welcome cash boost, most
experts said the revenues would act only as painkillers for the country’s ailing
economy unless followed by a political breakthrough.
But in downtown Beirut decorative streetlights raised spirits among
the thousands of visitors flocking to markets selling food, drink, toys, books,
and flowers.
One shopper said: “Beirut doesn’t fall, and these activities encourage the
re-opening of the markets. People need to feel alive again.”
In Achrafieh, Sassine Square was being trimmed up in readiness for the holidays
with traders planning to erect a Christmas tree alongside stalls selling festive
products.
Preparations were also in full swing for the Beirut Chants music festival. The
free event will run over 26 days in churches and souks around the capital and
artistic director, Toufic Maatouk, said the festival, now in its 15th year, had
received support from foreign ambassies and the participation of Lebanese bands.
Beirut Gov. Marwan Abboud said a host of activities had been lined up for
visitors to the city.
Officials at Rafic Hariri International Airport noted that many Lebanese expats,
especially from the Gulf region, were returning to spend the festive period with
their families.
The airport, that has been acting as a transit point for football fans heading
to Qatar for the World Cup, had also seen some supporters opting to stay in
Lebanon on their way back from the tournament.
Jean Abboud, president of the Association of Travel and Tourist Agents, said
flights were fully booked from Dec. 10 to 25 with the number of Arab tourists on
the rise, particularly from Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq. Abboud added that bookings
had increased by 38 percent compared to the same period last year.
The Lebanese Ministry of Tourism has predicted that around 700,000 tourists will
arrive in the country over the coming days.
Pierre Achkar, chairman of the Lebanese Federation for Tourism and president of
the Hotel Owners Association, expected hotel bookings to reach 60 percent.
Many luxury hotels are still undergoing restoration following the Beirut port
blast, but the iconic Phoenicia hotel recently celebrated its reopening.
And on Beirut waterfront, close to the explosion site, the Arab Cultural Club
and Syndicate of Publishers Union in Lebanon has inaugurated the 64th edition of
the Beirut International and Arab Book Fair with more than 133 publishers taking
part.
Salwa Siniora, head of the Arab Cultural Club, said: “Enlightened intellectuals
have a prominent role to play in shaping the destiny of the nation, and that
knowledge and intellect are the flame that will remove the abhorrent blackness
impeding visibility and the creative imagination.”
But signs of the ongoing crises in the country remain prominent with another
protester staging a sit-in at a Lebanese bank, this time in Antelias, demanding
the release of savings.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 05-06/2022
Iran: Almost Three Months of Anti-hijab
Protests
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini following her arrest and alleged assault by
Iran's notorious morality police almost three months ago sparked the biggest
protests in the Iranian republic in years.
Women and girls have led the charge against compulsory headscarves. A general in
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has said more than 300 people, including
security force members, lost their lives in the protests, AFP reported. The
Oslo-based Iran Human Rights group gives a toll of at least 448 people "killed
by security forces".
Here is a timeline of the events:
- Sept. 13: Amini's arrest -
Amini is visiting Tehran with her family when she is detained by the Gasht-e
Ershad (Guidance Patrol), the police unit that enforces strict dress rules for
women, including the mandatory hijab or headscarf.
She is rushed to hospital later that day. Police claim she "suddenly suffered a
heart problem". CCTV footage from the police station appears to show her
collapsing.
- Sept. 16: death -
After three days in a coma, Amini is declared dead.
Rights activists say she suffered a fatal blow to the head while in custody, a
claim echoed by a relative of Amini living in Iraq, but denied by officials.
President Ebrahim Raisi orders an inquiry.
- Sept. 17: first protests -
Amini is buried in her hometown of Saqez in Kurdistan province of northwest
Iran. Police use tear gas after some residents demonstrate.
In the following days, the hashtag #Masha_Amini clocks up more than one million
tweets, including many videos of Iranian women cutting their hair to protest her
death.
Demonstrations break out at several universities in Tehran.
- Sept. 20: first deaths -
Three people are reported killed during protests in Kurdistan province.
Videos posted on social media show women removing their veils and chanting
"Woman, life, freedom" or "Death to the dictator", a slogan directed at Ali
Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.
- Sept. 22: social media muzzled -
Iran blocks access to Instagram and WhatsApp, the two platforms most widely used
in Iran. It imposes drastic restrictions on internet access.
The US places the morality police on its sanctions blacklist.
- Sept. 23: counter-demonstrations -
Thousands take part in pro-hijab counter-demonstrations in Tehran and other
cities, in response to a call from the authorities.
On September 25, Raisi vows "decisive action" to end the anti-hijab protests. A
day later, more than 1,200 protesters are arrested.
- Oct. 3: Khamenei accuses US -
Khamenei accuses arch-foes the United States and Israel of fomenting the unrest.
- Oct. 8: death by illness -
An official medical report concludes Amini's death was caused by illness, due to
"surgery for a brain tumor at the age of eight", and not police brutality.
Activists hack a state television live news broadcast, superimposing crosshairs
and flames over an image of Khamenei.
- Oct. 15: prison blaze -
A fire erupts during clashes at Tehran's notorious Evin prison, where hundreds
of those detained during the demonstrations are being held.
The blaze kills eight inmates, according to authorities.
- Oct. 26: mass rally in Amini's hometown -
Crowds pour into Amini's hometown to pay tribute at her grave to mark the end of
the traditional 40-day period of mourning.
As protests break out, Iranian security forces open fire on the crowd.
- Nov. 13: first death sentence -
A Tehran court hands down the first death sentence over the protests to a
demonstrator accused of "corruption on earth", one of the most serious
categories of crimes in Iranian law.
- Nov. 15: strike -
Protesters hold strikes and demonstrations to mark three years since a deadly
crackdown on unrest sparked by a fuel price hike in 2019 -- the last time
Iranians took to the streets in large numbers.
- Dec. 4: morality police scrapped
"Morality police have nothing to do with the judiciary and have been abolished,"
Attorney General Mohammad Jafar Montazeri is quoted as saying by the ISNA news
agency.
Iranian City Shops Shut to Step up Pressure on Clerical
Rulers
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Iranian shops shut their doors in several cities on Monday, following calls for
a three-day nationwide general strike from protesters seeking the fall of
clerical rulers, with the head of the judiciary blaming "rioters" for
threatening shopkeepers.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide unrest following the death of Iranian Kurdish
woman Mahsa Amini on Sept. 16 in police custody, posing one of the strongest
challenges to the republic since the 1979 revolution. Amini was arrested by
Iran's morality police for flouting the strict hijab policy, which requires
women to dress modestly and wear headscarves. The semi-official Tasnim news
agency reported on Monday that an amusement park at a Tehran shopping center was
closed by the judiciary because its operators were not wearing the hijab
properly. The reformist-leaning Hammihan newspaper said that morality police had
increased their presence in cities outside Tehran, where the force has been less
active over recent weeks. Iran's public prosecutor on Saturday was cited by the
semi-official Iranian Labor News Agency as saying that the morality police had
been disbanded. But there was no confirmation from the Interior Ministry and
state media said the public prosecutor was not responsible for overseeing the
force. Last week, Vice President for Women's Affairs Ensieh Khazali said that
the hijab was part of the country’s general law and that it guaranteed women's
social movement and security. In the shop protests, 1500tasvir, a Twitter
account with 380,000 followers focused on the protests, shared videos on Monday
of shut stores in key commercial areas, such as Tehran's Bazaar, and other large
cities such as Karaj, Isfahan, Mashhad, Tabriz, and Shiraz. Reuters could not
immediately verify the footage. The head of Iran's judiciary, Gholamhossein
Mohseni Ejei, said that "rioters" were threatening shopkeepers to close their
businesses and added they would be swiftly dealt with by the judiciary and
security bodies. Ejei added that protesters condemned to death would soon be
executed.
The Revolutionary Guards issued a statement praising the judiciary and calling
on it to swiftly and decisively issue a judgement against "defendants accused of
crimes against the security of the nation". Security forces would show no mercy
towards "rioters, thugs, terrorists", the semi-official Tasnim news agency
quoted the guards as saying. Witnesses speaking to Reuters said riot police and
the Basij militia had been heavily deployed in central Tehran. The semi-official
Fars news agency confirmed that a jewellery shop belonging to former Iranian
football legend Ali Daei was sealed by authorities, following its decision to
close down for the three days of the general strike. Similar footage by
1500tasvir and other activist accounts was shared of closed shops in smaller
cities like Bojnourd, Kerman, Sabzevar, Ilam, Ardabil and Lahijan. Kurdish
Iranian rights group Hengaw also reported that 19 cities had joined the general
strike movement in western Iran, where most of the country's Kurdish population
live. Hundreds of people have been killed in the unrest since the death of Amini,
a 22-year-old woman who was detained by the morality police for flouting hijab
rules.
Israeli intelligence chiefs see Tehran surviving
protests, for now
Dan Williams/Reuters/ December 5, 2022
Iran's clerical rulers are likely to survive protests sweeping the country and
could stay in power for years, the chief analyst for Israeli military
intelligence said on Monday, prompting his commander to predict the enemy regime
would eventually fall. Locked in a Cold War-style conflict with Iran, Israel has
closely monitored the unusually protracted and violent unrest and offered some
statements of support for the protesters. But Israeli officials, their focus on
Iranian nuclear projects and regional guerrilla allies, have been circumspect
about any prospects for Tehran being topped by a popular uprising. "The
repressive Iranian regime will, it seems, manage to survive these protests,"
Brigadier-General Amit Saar, who as head of research for Israel's military
intelligence is responsible for national strategic forecasts, said in a speech.
"It has constructed very, very strong tools for dealing with such protests," he
told the first public conference by the Gazit Institute, a think-tank that
operates under his corps. "But I think that even if these protests wane, the
reasons (for them) will remain, and thus the Iranian regime has a problem for
years to come."Addressing the forum later, military intelligence commander
Major-General Aharon Haliva recapped Saar's remarks but added: "Seen long-term,
it would appear this regime will not survive." "I'm not in a position to give a
date. We are not prophets," he cautioned. "I recommend that we all be far more
modest, with far more caveats, when it comes to the conduct of societies." The
upheaval, sparked by the death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini on Sept. 16
in police custody, poses one of the strongest challenges to the Islamic Republic
since the 1979 revolution. Tehran brands the protests as a Western-backed plot.
Iraq Tightens Border Security with Iran
Baghdad - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Days after his visit to Iran, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani
ordered the military to tighten security along the zero point along the borders
with Iran and Türkiye. An official Iraqi source told Asharq Al-Awsat that border
security was “among the most important issues that Al-Sudani discussed with
Iranian officials.” Major General Yahya Rasool, spokesman for the
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, announced that the latter ordered the
border guards to hold the zero line with Türkiye and Iran to put an end to
violations, attacks and clashes between the armed forces of the two countries
and Kurdish parties opposed to Ankara and Tehran. During a press conference in
Baghdad on Sunday, Rasool added that the prime minister ordered the armed forces
to provide the border command with weapons, equipment and human capabilities to
ensure that the borders are well maintained.
“Iraq refuses for its land be used to attack any neighboring country,” he
stressed. “We have good relations… and we seek to develop them in a way that
serves the interests of Iraq and all its neighbors.”On whether Iraq can maintain
security at the border to prevent Tehran from attacking Iraqi territory under
the pretext of targeting dissidents, retired Major General Imad Alou, Director
of the Accreditation Center for Security and Strategic Studies, told Asharq Al-Awsat:
“The zero line is the geographically established border line agreed upon between
Iraq and Iran… What is required is the deployment of the border guards.”
“However, this region has been suffering since 2003 from lack of border
outposts, which are necessary to monitor violations and infiltrations by
smugglers or any groups that could threaten security and stability between
neighboring countries,” he remarked. “The presence of these forces is necessary
to remove any justifications or pretexts by neighboring countries, such as
Türkiye and Iran, to infiltrate the Iraqi borders,” he added, condemning the
attacks as violations of international law and Iraqi sovereignty.
Algerian President, Jordanian King Sign 5 Cooperation
Agreements
Algeria - Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Jordan's King Abdullah II bin Al Hussein met with Algerian President Abdelmadjid
Tebboune and signed five cooperation agreements in various sectors. Abdullah
arrived Saturday in Algiers for a two-day visit at the invitation of the
Algerian President. The Algerian presidency said in a statement that the two
leaders held "private talks" without providing further details about the talks.
The agreements included a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on bilateral
political consultations, an agreement on the mutual visa exemption for holders
of diplomatic passports, and an MoU between the two countries' diplomatic
institutes. It also included a draft memorandum of understanding between the
Jordan Institute of Diplomacy and the Algeria Institute of Diplomacy and
International Relations, a cooperation program between Petra News Agency and the
Algerian Press Service, and the mutual recognition of maritime qualification
certificates for seafarers, education program, and level of maritime training
between the two countries. At his residence in Algiers' western suburbs, King
Abdullah received Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Said Chanegriha, Prime
Minister Aymen Benabderrahmane, President of the People's National Assembly
Brahim Boughali, and speaker of the upper house of parliament Salah Goudjil. The
President awarded King Abdullah the national order of merit "El-Athir," said the
Presidency in a statement. Later, the Jordanian monarch visited the "Martyr's
Shrine," where he paid respects to the martyrs of the liberation revolution
(1954-1962). The state-owned newspaper, el-Masaa, reported that the King's visit
is expected to give a new push to bilateral ties, especially in the economic
aspect, as the two countries prepare for the upcoming meetings of the Joint
Higher Committee. The newspaper pointed out that the visit constitutes an
opportunity to embody the common will to push bilateral relations to higher
levels based on solid ground for cooperation. The newspaper quoted Algerian
Foreign Minister Ramtane Lamamra, during his meeting with Jordan's foreign
minister Ayman Safadi in October, that many bilateral agreements need to be
activated and implemented. The two countries are discussing ways to establish a
real and sustainable partnership in various fields to face future economic
challenges, said el-Masaa.
Russia Launches New Missile Attacks, Ukrainians Head For
Shelters
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Russia unleashed a new barrage of missiles on Ukraine on Monday, causing people
to head to shelters across the country as air defenses went into action. Air
raid sirens blared in the capital Kyiv and across the whole country in what
Ukrainian officials described as the latest wave of Russian missile strikes
since its Feb. 24 invasion. "Missiles have already been launched," air force
spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said. There was no immediate word of any damage or
casualties but officials were quoted by Ukrainian media as saying that
explosions could be heard overhead in some areas as aid defense systems went
into action. "Don't ignore the alarm," said Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian
presidential staff. Russian forces have increasingly targeted Ukrainian energy
facilities in recent weeks as they faced setbacks on the battlefield, causing
major power outages as winter sets in.
Kremlin Says Western Oil Price Cap Will Not Hinder Military Operation in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
The Kremlin said on Monday that a Western price cap on Russian oil would
destabilize global energy markets but would not affect Moscow's ability to
sustain its military operation in Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said
Russia was preparing how it would respond to the move by the G7 and allies to
ban countries and companies from dealing with Russian sea-borne exports of oil
where the price is above $60 a barrel. "Russia and the Russian economy have the
required capacity to fully meet the needs and requirements of the special
military operation," Peskov told reporters on Monday when asked whether the
price cap would affect Russia's military campaign in Ukraine. Russia calls its
actions in Ukraine a "special military operation." He added that the price cap
would "completely destabilize" the global energy markets, and told Europeans
that should brace themselves for higher prices. Global benchmark Brent crude was
up 1.7% at $87.01 a barrel on Monday, following the European Union's move to
adopt the price cap on Russian oil - which also bans European insurers from
providing coverage policies to tankers carrying Russian oil at prices above the
threshold. Several Russian officials have previously said Moscow will not sell
oil to countries that abide by the cap.
Putin drove across a newly fixed bridge to Crimea that was
blown up. It is the closest he's come to his war in Ukraine.
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/December 5, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin drove across a newly repaired bridge in Crimea
on Monday.
The Kerch Bridge was rocked by an explosion on October 8, causing significant
damage.
Putin's visit is the closest he's been to the front lines of the devastating war
he started.
It's been over nine months since he started his devastating war in Ukraine, and
Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to visit the front lines. He is getting
a bit closer though. On Monday, Putin drove across a newly repaired bridge to
the occupied Crimean peninsula that was blown apart a couple months ago. It's
the closest he's come to the bloody conflict that has cost the lives of tens of
thousands of Ukrainian and Russian troops, as well as numerous civilians. The
Russian leader drove on the Kerch Bridge, which was damaged by a truck bomb in
early October, and spoke with workers and government officials who are involved
in the repair process, according to the Associated Press. Agence France-Presse
reported that Putin's visit on Monday came as the bridge re-opened to traffic.
Videos circulating on social media purportedly showed Putin driving what
appeared to be a Mercedes car with an unidentifiable passenger in the seat next
to him. Footage published by a Kremlin media pool also showed the Russian leader
walking on the bridge. Insider was unable to immediately verify the imagery. The
bridge, which connects Crimea with mainland Russia, was rocked by an explosion
early on October 8 — just one day after Putin's 70th birthday — leaving several
people dead. The blast caused a section of the westbound lane to collapse, while
damaging part of the eastbound lane and a rail bridge. Moscow blamed Kyiv for
the incident, although Ukraine did not immediately take responsibility. The
12-mile-long bridge, which is the longest in Europe, was built after Putin
illegally seized Crimea in 2014 and was touted both by the Russian leader and
his state media as a major achievement. As for its involvement during the
ongoing war, the bridge was used by Russian troops to move military equipment.
Putin's visit to the bridge on Monday marked the first known appearance he's
made to a location somewhat close to the war that he started in late February.
Not only has he kept his distance from the war, but he has even kept war-related
engagements at a distance on the domestic front, often meeting with world
leaders and Russian officials at very long tables. Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy, by contrast, has made numerous visits to communities along the war's
front lines — including newly liberated cities and towns. Putin's visit to the
bridge to Crimea comes as Russian forces gamble big on their defense of
territory in the Kherson region just north of the occupied peninsula. Recent
satellite images show Russia has fortified positions along critical ground lines
of communication like roads and highways, instead of focusing on open territory,
as Moscow tries to hold ground in the face of Ukrainian advances
Blasts reported at Russian air base where satellite images
showed an 'unusual' amount of activity
Charles R. Davis/Business Insider/December 5, 2022
Explosions were reported Monday at a military air base inside Russia.
A Russian official said the apparent blasts were being investigated by law
enforcement. Last week, Der Spiegel reported that an "unusual" amount of
activity was occurring at the base. Explosions were reported Monday at Russian
air base that is home to the country's supersonic strategic bombers just days
after satellite imagery suggested the site was being used to prepare for a
massive new bombing campaign in Ukraine. Writing on Telegram, Roman Busargin,
governor of the Saratov region, appeared to confirm that several blasts
occurred. "The incidents at military facilities [are] being checked by law
enforcement agencies," he wrote, stating that no civilian infrastructure was
damaged. The Russian Ministry of Defense later issued a statement attributing
the blasts a Ukrainian attack. According to the ministry, Ukraine used
Soviet-era "unmanned aerial vehicles" to strike at its Engels base, in the
Saratov oblast, and another airfield, Dyagilevo. Two aircraft were "slightly
damaged," the ministry claimed, from "fragments" of the attacking vehicles,
which it claimed to have destoryed. Four soldiers were also injured, it said.
The Engels air base, located more than 370 miles from the Ukrainian border, is
used by Russia's fleet of strategic bombers, including the Tupolev Tu-160 heavy
bomber, also known as the Blackjack, which can travel at speeds greater than
1,500 miles per hour. News of the explosion comes days after the German news
outlet Der Spiegel reported on satellite imagery depicting an "unusual" amount
of activity at the airport, which it suggested was a prelude to a "new heavy air
attack on Ukraine." Images posted Monday by the commercial satellite firm Maxar
shows the base hosting the Tu-160 as well as the Tu-95, or Bear, strategic
bomber. Both planes are capable of carrying nuclear and conventional missiles.
Russian bombers have fired long-range cruise missiles as part of the
intensifying barrages on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, while taking care to
steer clear of Ukraine's airspace out of what military analysts believe are
fears they could be shot down by the enemy air defenses. In the separate
reported attack, a fuel tanker exploded at the Dyagilevo airbase, southeast of
Moscow. The base is also home to strategic bombers. The Moscow Times reported
that three people were killed and two planes damaged by the blast, citing state
and independent media. Mykhaylo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelensky, obliquely referenced the explosions in a post on social
media, writing: "if something is launched into other countries' airspace, sooner
or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point."
Have a news tip? Email this reporter: cdavis@insider.com
Russia to sell discounted crude to Pakistan -minister
Asif Shahzad/Reuters/December 5, 2022
Russia will sell crude oil to Pakistan at a discounted price, Pakistan's state
minister for petroleum said on Monday, days after he led a government team to
Moscow to negotiate the deal. Russia will also supply discounted petrol and
diesel to Pakistan, Musaddiq Malik told a news briefing in Islamabad.
He did not specify the price of the discounted Russian oil or say whether the
imports would comply with a $60 per barrel cap imposed by the G7 nations and the
EU on Russian seaborne oil from this week over Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Moscow has said it will not sell to countries that comply with the cap.
There was no immediate comment from Russia's energy ministry on a discount for
Pakistan. "Their government has also invited Pakistan to initiate talks on
long-term contracts to buy liquefied natural gas (LNG)," he said, adding that
Islamabad was already in talks with Russian private companies over the import of
LNG. Malik led the delegation to Moscow on Nov 28. Pakistan has been unable to
procure LNG from the international market because spot prices remain out of its
range and shipments under long-term deals remain insufficient to match rising
demand.
With dwindling local gas reserves, the country has begun to ration supplies to
residential and commercial consumers. Local media has also reported that oil
supplies remain tenuous owing to difficulties in paying for imports. Oil and
energy make up the largest portion of Pakistan's imports bill. Owing to foreign
reserves as low as $7.5 billion as of Nov 25, hardly enough for a little over a
month of imports, and a widening current account deficit, the South Asian
economy has been facing a balance of payment crisis. Moscow and Islamabad have
also long been working on a gas pipeline project with little success. As part of
efforts to diversify energy production toward renewables to lower import bill, a
U.S.-funded project to refurbish and improve power generation capacity at the
Mangla hydro power plant was inaugurated jointly by Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif and U.S. ambassador Donald Blome. The $150 million project will add 300
megawatts of additional power to the plant's capacity, enough to provide power
to 100,000 households and 2 million Pakistanis, according to a statement from
the U.S. embassy in Islamabad.
UAE leader makes surprise visit to Qatar following boycott
Associated Press/Monday, 5 December, 2022
The leader of the United Arab Emirates made a surprise visit on Monday to Qatar
as it is hosting the World Cup — his first since leading a yearslong four-nation
boycott of Doha over a political dispute that poisoned regional relations.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who also serves as the ruler of Abu Dhabi,
made the trip at the invitation of Qatar's ruling emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad
Al Thani, the state-run WAM news agency reported. "The visit builds on the
existing brotherly relations between the two nations and their people," WAM said
in its brief report. Sheikh Mohammed was widely viewed by analysts as one of the
main architects of the boycott of Qatar by Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the
United Arab Emirates that began in 2017. At the height of the Qatar crisis,
newspaper columns even suggested digging a trench along the 87-kilometer
(54-mile) border with Saudi Arabia and filling it with nuclear waste. While
rhetorical bluster, it showed how deeply the anger ran in the region amid the
dispute — which Kuwait's then-ruler suggested nearly sparked a war. The anger
was rooted in Qatar's stance in supporting Islamists who rose to power in Egypt
and elsewhere following the 2011 Arab Spring. While Qatar viewed their arrival
as a sea change in the gerontocracies gripping the Mideast, other Gulf Arab
nations saw the protests as a threat to their autocratic and hereditary rule.
During the 2011 protests, Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent troops to help a violent
crackdown on demonstrations in Bahrain.
The boycott, during which the four nations shut off air and sea routes to Qatar,
only ended in January 2021 just ahead of President Joe Biden taking office in
the United States. The boycott began immediately after a visit to the region by
then-President Donald Trump early in his presidency. The opening ceremony of the
World Cup, which coincided with Qatar facing Ecuador in the tournament's first
match, was attended by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian
President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi. Also on the dais with leaders was Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who provided a vital lifeline to Qatar during
the crisis. Dubai's ruler also attended along with his son, while Sheikh
Mohammed did not attend. However, he called Sheikh Tamim the following day and
"congratulated" Qatar on hosting the World Cup — something that would have been
unthinkable at the height of the diplomatic crisis.
Two dead as protesters, police clash in southern Syria
Agence France Presse/Monday, 5 December, 2022
A protester and a policeman were killed Sunday in Syria's southern city of
Sweida as security forces cracked down on a rare demonstration by hundreds
against deteriorating living conditions. Tensions were high in the regime-held
city after protesters threw rocks at a government building and stormed it,
removing a large picture of President Bashar al-Assad from its facade, the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. "At least one protester and one police
officer were killed," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP. The
protester was shot dead when security forces opened fire after demonstrators
entered the building, he said, adding that government forces have fanned out in
the city, dispersing protesters. Local news outlet Suwayda24 confirmed the two
deaths and said four others were taken to hospital with gunshot wounds in the
Druze-majority city. The Sweida region south of Damascus is the heartland of the
Druze, who made up less than three percent of Syria's pre-war population and
have largely kept out of the country's civil war. That war has killed nearly
half a million people since it began in 2011 with the brutal repression of
anti-government protests, fragmenting the country and causing economic collapse.
'Pursue the outlaws'
Suwayda24 posted images on social media earlier in the day that showed
protesters calling for the fall of the regime as security forces stood guard
outside the building. Other images showed a military vehicle on fire and burning
tires on main streets of the city. Gunshots could be heard in some of the
footage. Syria's interior ministry said a "group of outlaws" killed one
policeman while they tried to storm police headquarters. Some protesters carried
weapons, the ministry said. "We will pursue the outlaws, and take legal measures
against anyone who tries to tamper with the security and stability of the Sweida
governorate and the safety of its citizens," the ministry said in a statement on
Sunday. State television said "lawbreakers" had stormed the provincial
government building and "set fire to official documents and files". Syria's
economy has been pummeled by both its long-running civil war and Western
sanctions against Damascus, and the value of the local currency has plummeted.
Ninety percent of the population now lives below the poverty line and 12.4
million people are food insecure, according to the United Nations. Sweida and
other cities have been hit hard by nationwide electricity rationing and chronic
fuel shortages that severely hamper daily life. The government in recent days
announced further austerity measures, including more electricity rationing. In
February, hundreds took to the streets in Sweida to demand better living
conditions and democratic rule, the Observatory said at the time. Smaller
protests were held there in 2020.
Israeli army kills Palestinian during West Bank arrest
raid
Agence France Presse/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian man Monday when clashes broke out during
an arrest raid in the occupied West Bank, official sources on both sides said.
The Palestinian health ministry said "a citizen was killed by live bullets in
the chest in Dheisheh refugee camp in Bethlehem" in the southern West Bank near
Jerusalem. The Palestinian Prisoners' Club advocacy group identified the dead
man as Omar Manaa, 22, and said 14 others were arrested in overnight raids
across the West Bank. Israel's army said its troops opened fire during the
arrest operation targeting alleged members of the Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine. "During the operation suspects threw stones, firebombs
and explosive devices at the forces, who responded with fire," the army said. "A
hit was identified," the army added in its statement, without confirming an
individual death. The PFLP group, which has Marxist roots, has been banned by
Israel and is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and
European Union. In the northern West Bank, Israeli forces arrested Yahya al-Saadi,
"a senior member of the Islamic Jihad suspected of terror activity," the army
said. At least 146 Palestinians and 26 Israelis have been killed so far this
year across the West Bank, Israel and the contested city of Jerusalem. Israel
has occupied the West Bank and east Jerusalem since the 1967 Six-Day War. Those
killed amid the surging violence in recent months include Israeli soldiers,
Palestinian militants and civilians on both sides.
Sudanese Civilian Parties Sign Framework Deal for New
Political Transition
Asharq Al-Awsat/Monday, 5 December, 2022
Sudan’s ruling generals and the main pro-democracy group on Monday signed a
framework deal until elections. The deal pledges to establish a new,
civilian-led transitional government to guide the country to elections and
offers a path forward in the wake of Sudan's stalled transition to democracy
following the October 2021 coup. The deal — the first of at least two planned
accords — was signed by Sudan’s two ruling generals, Abdel-Fattah Burhan and
Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, and the leaders from the country's largest pro-democracy
group, Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change, at the Khartoum
Republican Palace. However, several of Sudan’s key dissenting political forces
have boycotted the deal, including Sudan’s grassroots pro-democracy network,
known as the Resistance Committee, which has continually refused to negotiate
with the ruling generals.
According to the draft, the deal envisions Sudan’s military step back from
politics. The agreement also stipulates that the “revolutionary forces” that
signed the deal will decide upon a new prime minister to oversee a two-year
transition, a 24-month period that begins after a premier is appointed. In
response to the signing, the pro-democracy Resistance Committee leaders called
for demonstrations against the agreement. The deal is roughly based on a draft
transitional constitution proposed Sudan’s Bar Association in September. It does
not address details concerning thornier political issues, such as a transitional
judiciary system and the implementation of military reforms, which have been
left for a follow-up accord. It also stipulates that the military will form part
of a new “security and defense council” under the appointed prime minister. The
agreement also vows to unify Sudan’s armed forces and subject controls on
military-owned companies. Sudan has been plugged into turmoil since its leading
military figure, Burhan, mounted the October 2021 coup that upended the
country’s former democratic transition after three decades of rule by Omar al-Bashir.
The former leader was toppled in April 2019 following a popular uprising. The UN
special envoy to Sudan, Volker Perthes, attended Monday's signing and later, at
a speech at the palace, described the deal as “Sudanese-owned and Sudanese-led.”The
United States and its partners welcomed the agreement and urged all parties to
make a concerted effort to finalize negotiations on a new civilian-led
government. "This is the key to unlocking the resumption of international
development assistance and deeper cooperation between the government of Sudan
and international partners," the countries said in a joint statement. "We are
working with partners to coordinate significant economic support to a
civilian-led transitional government to help address the challenges facing the
people of Sudan."Participating countries include Norway, Saudi Arabia, the
United Arab Emirates, Britain and the US. Monday's development came after months
of negotiations between the military and the Forces for the Declaration of
Freedom and Change, facilitated by a four-part mediating team, including the US,
the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Britain. The deal will hope to drawn in new
international aid, after donor funds dried up in response to the coup. In recent
months, bread and fuel shortages, caused in part by the war in Ukraine, have
become routine in Sudan.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 05-06/2022
World War III Begins With Forgetting
Stephen Wertheim/The New York Times/December, 05/2022
In March, as President Biden was facing pressure to intensify US involvement in
Ukraine, he responded by invoking the specter of World War III four times in one
day.
“Direct conflict between NATO and Russia is World War III,” he said, “something
we must strive to prevent.” He underscored the point hours later: “The idea that
we’re going to send in offensive equipment and have planes and tanks and trains
going in with American pilots and American crews — just understand, and don’t
kid yourself, no matter what you all say, that’s called World War III, OK?”
More than any other presidential statement since Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Biden’s
warning signaled the start of a new era in American foreign policy. Throughout
my adult life and that of most Americans today, the United States bestrode the
world, essentially unchallenged and unchecked. A few years ago, it was still
possible to expect a benign geopolitical future. Although “great power
competition” became the watchword of Pentagonese, the phrase could as easily
imply sporting rivalry as explosive conflict. Washington, Moscow and Beijing
would stiffly compete but could surely coexist.
How quaint. The United States now faces the real and regular prospect of
fighting adversaries strong enough to do Americans immense harm. The post-Sept.
11 forever wars have been costly, but a true great power war — the kind that
used to afflict Europe — would be something else, pitting the United States
against Russia or even China, whose economic strength rivals America’s and whose
military could soon as well.
This grim reality has arrived with startling rapidity. Since February, the war
in Ukraine has created an acute risk of US-Russia conflict. It has also vaulted
a Chinese invasion of Taiwan to the forefront of American fears and increased
Washington’s willingness to respond with military force. “That’s called World
War III,” indeed.
Yet how many Americans can truly envision what a third world war would mean?
Just as great power conflict looms again, those who witnessed the last one are
disappearing. Around 1 percent of US veterans of World War II remain alive to
tell their stories. It is estimated that by the end of this decade, fewer than
10,000 will be left. The vast majority of Americans today are unused to enduring
hardship for foreign policy choices, let alone the loss of life and wealth that
direct conflict with China or Russia would bring.
Preparing the country shouldn’t begin with tanks, planes and ships. It will
require a national effort of historical recovery and imagination — first and
foremost to enable the American people to consider whether they wish to enter a
major war if the moment of decision arrives.
Navigating great power conflict is hardly a novel challenge for the United
States. By 1945, Americans had lived through two world wars. The country emerged
triumphant yet sobered by its wounds. Even as the wars propelled the United
States to world leadership, American leaders and citizens feared that a third
world war might be as probable as it today appears unthinkable. Perhaps that is
one reason a catastrophe was avoided.
For four decades, America’s postwar presidents appreciated that the next hot war
would likely be worse than the last. In the nuclear age, “we will be a
battlefront,” Truman said. “We can look forward to destruction here, just as the
other countries in the Second World War.” This insight didn’t keep him or his
successors from meddling in third world countries, from Guatemala to Indonesia,
where the Cold War was brutal. But US leaders, regardless of party, recognized
that if the United States and the Soviet Union squared off directly, nuclear
weapons would lay waste to the American mainland.
Nuclear terror became part of American life, thanks to a purposeful effort by
the government to prepare the country for the worst. The Federal Civil Defense
Administration advised citizens to build bomb shelters in their backyards and
keep clean homes so there would be less clutter to ignite in a nuclear blast.
The film “Duck and Cover,” released in 1951, encouraged schoolchildren to act
like animated turtles and hide under a makeshift shell — “a table or desk or
anything else close by” — if nukes hit. By the 1960s, yellow-and-black signs for
fallout shelters dotted American cities.
The specter of full-scale war kept the Cold War superpowers in check. In 1950,
Truman sent US troops to defend South Korea against invasion by the Communist
North, but his resolve had limits. After Gen. Douglas MacArthur implored Truman
to blast China and North Korea with 34 nuclear bombs, the president fired the
general. Evoking the “disaster of World War II,” he told the nation: “We will
not take any action which might place upon us the responsibility of initiating a
general war — a third world war.”
The extreme violence of the world wars and the anticipation of a sequel also
shaped President John F. Kennedy’s decisions during the Cuban missile crisis,
when the Soviet Union moved to place nuclear weapons 90 miles from Florida.
Kennedy, who had served in the Pacific and rescued a fellow sailor after their
ship went down, grew frustrated with his military advisers for recommending
preventative strikes on Soviet missile sites. Instead of opening fire, he
imposed a naval blockade around Cuba and demanded that the Soviets withdraw
their missiles. A one-week superpower standoff ensued. Approximately 10 million
Americans fled their homes. Crowds descended on civil defense offices to find
out how to survive a nuclear blast. The Soviets backed down after Kennedy
secretly promised to remove US Jupiter missiles from Turkey. The world had come
so close to nuclear Armageddon that Kennedy, citing the danger of a third and
total war, took the first steps toward détente before his death in 1963.
But memory is never static. After the Soviet Union collapsed and generations
turned over, World War II was recast as a moral triumph and no longer a
cautionary tale.
As international relations have deteriorated in recent years, critics of US
global primacy have frequently warned that a new cold war was brewing. I have
been among them. Yet pointing to a cold war in some ways understates the danger.
Relations with Russia and China are not assured to stay cold. During the
original Cold War, American leaders and citizens knew that survival was not
inevitable.
Daesh continues its inexorable rise to ascendancy in Africa
Baria Alamuddin/Arab News/December 05, 2022
The life expectancy of Daesh’s “caliphs” gets ever shorter. The group has been
forced to acknowledge the second death of a leader in just a few months.
Militants are not even particularly grieved about these losses because they know
nothing about either the new or the old leaders; they simply blindly pledge
cult-like loyalty to these shadowy figures. In Iraq and Syria, Daesh’s murderous
activities mercifully appear to be in terminal decline, with sharply reduced
numbers of attacks confined to a dwindling number of localities — in particular,
areas like Kirkuk, Nineveh and Salahuddin, where Iran-backed Hashd
paramilitaries appear happy to turn a blind eye. Daesh sees these
Tehran-affiliated paramilitaries as its most promising route back to
preeminence, given their unceasing efforts to destabilize the Iraqi state and
trigger sectarian tensions. Hezbollah and the Hashd never tire of demonizing all
Sunnis as Daesh supporters, despite the group’s actual presence in Lebanon being
vanishingly small. Despite daily reports of the arrest and killing of
extremists, Daesh’s demonic predecessors have rebounded from strategic defeat in
the past. Dazzled by their millennial worldview, they believe that history is on
their side and, if they are on the back foot today, victory is assured in five,
20 or 100 years. The confused and unresolved situation in Syria, where parties
like Turkiye, Iran, Russia and a confusing spectrum of extremist groups jostle
for control, is ripe for a Daesh comeback in the near future, particularly if
the group succeeds in its ambition of “breaking the walls” of vast camps where
tens of thousands of militant suspects are held.
In Afghanistan, Daesh’s “Khorasan Province” has gone on the rhetorical
offensive, improbably denouncing the Taliban as sellouts to the West who have
massively compromised on their Islamic principles. By staging bloody attacks
against Shiites and other minorities, Daesh cynically claims that the Taliban
has made itself the protector of “apostates” and “infidels.” Such narratives may
be paying off in conservative tribal areas on the Afghan-Pakistan border, where
many erstwhile Taliban supporters question why they have not benefited from the
group’s return to power. Just in the last couple of days, Daesh tried to
assassinate Pakistan’s ambassador to Kabul.
However, it is in Africa where Daesh is most conspicuously and aggressively
expanding. In 2018, more than 80 percent of Daesh’s activity was concentrated in
Iraq and Syria, now the majority of its attacks are staged in Africa. Its
extremists dominate vast regions of central Mali, northern Burkina Faso and
Niger, with attacks reaching as far as Benin and Togo. Because these forces have
focused on recruitment along tribal lines, they have been able to expand
rapidly, with devastating attacks featuring hundreds of motorcycle-riding
fighters deployed against other tribes, self-defense militias and state forces.
Some of the biggest battles have been between Daesh and Al-Qaeda personnel, both
groups seeking to dominate these vast ungoverned spaces. In recent weeks, Daesh
published grizzly images of dozens of Al-Qaeda fighters it had killed.
Meanwhile, Daesh franchises in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the
Congo continue to flourish, carrying out almost daily attacks against
Christian-majority villages, slaughtering dozens of people at a time. The group
claimed about 300 attacks in these two states during 2022. In northern
Mozambique, scarcely a month goes by without the group boasting of expansion
into new areas.
Daesh’s largest and best-established branch dominates vast territories
throughout the Lake Chad region, particularly in northeastern Nigeria, with the
group claiming about 500 attacks in 2022. In propaganda videos, the group has
demonstrated how it is training and indoctrinating new generations of young
fighters, while engaging in vigorous campaigns of preaching, propaganda,
taxation and outreach to win over local communities in remote areas outside
state control. Those accused of collaborating with the military are brutally
slaughtered.
Throughout 2022, Daesh has embarked on an ambitious initiative to expand to new
areas of central and western Nigeria, with a succession of attacks in areas
where the group has never been seen before and an ambitious prison break near
Abuja in July that freed hundreds of extremists.
The group has demonstrated how it is training and indoctrinating new generations
of young fighters
Such is the scale of these gory achievements that Daesh’s victory-starved
leadership in Syria and Iraq has been heavily promoting its African victories in
its worldwide propaganda, glorifying its African territories and encouraging
extremists to migrate. One of the biggest “success” stories for militants is in
Somalia, much of which is dominated by the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab. On the
back of a continuous string of high-profile attacks, Al-Shabab fighters last
week targeted a popular hotel next to Mogadishu’s presidential palace, killing
nine people. Despite all this, Western states have been disengaging from the
Sahel region and surrendering influence to Russian Wagner Group mercenaries. One
could be forgiven for thinking “better Russia than nobody” — yet these Wagner
forces have made a bad problem worse through grotesque massacres of civilians
that further drive communities into the arms of extremists. Moscow’s efforts to
exploit vulnerable states for countering Western influence further fuels a
climate of instability, disinformation and chaos. Throughout the 1990s, the
Clinton administration shortsightedly ignored the expansion of Al-Qaeda and
related groups in Sudan, East Africa, the Maghreb and Afghanistan, setting the
scene for 9/11 and two decades of the “war on terror.” We are still living with
the consequences of these mistakes, including with Joe Biden’s ignominious
retreat from Afghanistan, surrendering the country to the Taliban, Al-Qaeda and
Daesh. I am frequently shocked in conversations with Western officials about
governments’ lack of bandwidth for dealing with more than one crisis at a time;
as if the Ukraine crisis makes it impossible to focus on comparably momentous
developments in Iran, Afghanistan and Palestine. Yet, without urgent attention,
extremist expansion throughout Africa will erupt in all our faces.
As these malignant forces consolidate their positions to the south of Europe’s
frontiers, the predictable next step is for militants to exploit this strategic
depth by staging attacks against Europe, America and the Middle East. Must we
really watch history repeat itself?
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle
East and the UK. She is editor of the Media Services Syndicate and has
interviewed numerous heads of state.
Iranian women deserve full support
Dalia Al-Aqidi/Arab News/December 05, 2022
Despite all the atrocities committed by the Iranian regime against its own
citizens since they began their protests in September — following the death of
Mahsa Amini in the custody of Iran’s so-called morality police — the free women
of Iran, supported by their husbands, families, neighbors and fellow citizens of
all backgrounds, have shown extreme bravery and courage. As the days pass and
the number of victims continues to rise, no international effort has succeeded
in stopping the Iranian government’s acts of violence against the Iranian
people. According to Oslo-based nongovernmental organization Iran Human Rights,
the security forces have killed at least 448 protesters, most of them in Sistan
and Balochistan province on Iran’s southeastern border with Pakistan. The
group’s director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam stressed to AFP that the ongoing
protests are “the beginning of a revolution of dignity.” He added: “Women and
minorities, who have for more than four decades been treated as second-class
citizens, are empowered through these protests to come out to the streets and
demand their fundamental human rights.”
However, the country’s judicial authorities have proudly announced that
thousands of Iranians and about 40 foreigners have been arrested and more than
2,000 people have been charged over the unrest. It is well known that detainees
in Iranian prisons often disappear or are killed without an accurate official
explanation. On Saturday, President Ebrahim Raisi praised his country for
protecting the people’s rights and freedoms, defending the ruling regime amid
its crackdown on anti-government protesters. “The constitution guarantees the
existence of the Islamic system,” he said, adding that it also “guarantees
fundamental rights and legitimate freedoms.”
This is the usual method and vocabulary used by dictators when they are trying
to brainwash their people and cover up the crimes perpetrated against everyone
who demands human rights and justice in a state that resembles a large prison.
It is not surprising that the oppressor points to foreign entities, accusing
them of interfering in his country’s internal affairs, instead of taking
responsibility for his bloody crimes. The whole world has become aware of how
the regime treats the free people of Iran.
Civilians around the globe can make a difference by reaching out to their
representatives and lawmakers.
The radical, totalitarian Iranian government has blamed the revolt on its
enemies. These false accusations reflect the regime’s fears of losing its grip
on the country, making it blind to the international support expressed during
the ongoing FIFA World Cup in Qatar.
Ahead of their first match, the brave players in the Iranian team refused to
sing the national anthem in solidarity with their people. Lo and behold, they
were all threatened by their government and warned not to repeat this stance.
CNN reported that the team members’ families were threatened with imprisonment
and torture. However, the players’ actions were globally respected and
appreciated. Previously, some protesters asked the national team to refrain from
participating in the World Cup in protest against the regime’s repression. But
the players did not respond to their calls and decided to participate, angering
the demonstrators. That led to cross-country celebrations of the team’s defeat
against its American rival, with the loss being used as new fuel for the Iranian
opposition.
That type of behavior in turn angered the government, which considered it an act
of betrayal and disloyalty. One man, Mehran Samak, was apparently executed for
celebrating the Iranian team’s elimination from the World Cup. According to the
BBC, security forces shot him in the head while he was honking his car’s horn.
Pro-reform news outlet IranWire shared a video showing crowds at Samak’s funeral
chanting “death to the dictator.”
What can ordinary people do to help?Instead of relying on other countries,
civilians around the globe can make a difference by reaching out to their
representatives and lawmakers to take a stand, attend pro-Iranian demonstrations
and donate to legitimate organizations.
The only way to save the brave women and men of Iran is to show solidarity and
support from anywhere in the world. Regime change will be the only way out.
Women, Life, Freedom.
• Dalia Al-Aqidi is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy. Twitter:
@DaliaAlAqidi