English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 04/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
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Bible Quotations For today
The
Parable of the Ten Virgins
Matthew 25/01-13:“At that time the kingdom of heaven will be like ten virgins
who took their lamps and went out to meet the bridegroom. Five of them were
foolish and five were wise. The foolish ones took their lamps but did not take
any oil with them. The wise ones, however, took oil in jars along with their
lamps. The bridegroom was a long time in coming, and they all became drowsy and
fell asleep. “At midnight the cry rang out: ‘Here’s the bridegroom! Come out to
meet him!’ “Then all the virgins woke up and trimmed their lamps. The foolish
ones said to the wise, ‘Give us some of your oil; our lamps are going out.’
“‘No,’ they replied, ‘there may not be enough for both us and you. Instead, go
to those who sell oil and buy some for yourselves.’“But while they were on their
way to buy the oil, the bridegroom arrived. The virgins who were ready went in
with him to the wedding banquet. And the door was shut. “Later the others also
came. ‘Lord, Lord,’ they said, ‘open the door for us!’ “But he replied, ‘Truly I
tell you, I don’t know you.’ “Therefore keep watch, because you do not know the
day or the hour.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on December 03-04/2021
Pope Francis in Cyprus Migrant Mass Condemns 'Slavery, Torture'
France’s Macron says hoping for progress on Lebanon ‘within next hours’
Kordahi Resigns, Says Lebanon More Important than Him
Lebanon: Political Parties Organize Ranks In Union Elections Ahead of
Parliamentary Polls
Lebanon’s Information Minister Quits to Ease Gulf Dispute
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry Condemns Houthi Attack on Saudi Arabia
Protesters Storm Public Works Ministry, Ask to Meet Minister
Lira Regains Some of Its Value after Kordahi's Resignation
Waste Collection Stops in Beirut, Mt. Lebanon Threatening New Crisis
Escaping Slow Death in Beirut, Lebanese Embrace Farm Life
A package deal/Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanont/Friday, 03 December, 2021
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published December
03-04/2021
Israel’s Bennett Postpones Visit to Abu Dhabi
US hits out at Iran for not coming to Vienna with constructive proposals
Europe disappointed at Iran’s stance in nuclear talks
Clashes Rock Arab Town in North Israel, Alleged Car-Rammer Killed
Israeli agents convinced Iranian scientists to blow up their own nuclear
facilities
UN General Assembly Says Any Action to Change Status Quo in Jerusalem Is Illegal
France Signs Weapons Mega-Deal with UAE as Macron Tours Gulf
Biden Warns Putin against Ukraine Invasion
Officials: Civilians Among 10 Dead In Iraq Attack Blamed on ISIS
UN Says ISIS Committed War Crimes at Iraqi Prison
UAE, France Sign Historic Deal for 80 Rafale Jets
Guterres Urges Sudanese to Support Hamdok
Libyan Court Says Gadhafi’s Son Can Run for President
Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC
English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published December
03-04/2021
Biden's Two-Faced Agenda on Turkey/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/December 3, 2021
NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting In Riga Came at a Time of All Kinds of
Happenings/Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2021
Putin Needs a Real Casus Belli to Invade Ukraine/Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December,
03/2021
Biden’s Doppelganger for the UN/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2021
Vienna and the United States’ Miscalculations/Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/December,
03/2021
PGM: Iran’s greatest threat to Israel after nuclear program/Jacob Nagel and
Jonathan Schanzer/The Jerusalem Post/December 02/2021
World must support Iranians when they rise up against the regime/Dr. Majid
Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 03/2021
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
December 03-04/2021
Pope Francis in Cyprus Migrant Mass
Condemns 'Slavery, Torture'
Naharnet/Friday, 03 December, 2021
Pope Francis on Friday condemned "slavery" and "torture" suffered by people
fleeing war and poverty, speaking at a prayer service for migrants on a visit to
the divided island of Cyprus. "It reminds us of the history of the last century,
of the Nazis, of Stalin, and we wonder how this could have happened," he said,
stressing the need to "open our eyes". Francis was expected to take 50 migrants
back to Italy -- a gesture that inspired dozens more to flock to the Church of
the Holy Cross, some in apparent hopes that they too may get the chance to start
new lives there. Christians from the Middle East, Africa and Asia filled the
pews of the Nicosia church next to the U.N.-patrolled buffer zone that divides
the Mediterranean island, a key destination for irregular migrants. "Your
presence, migrant brothers and sisters, is very significant for this
celebration," said the 84-year-old pontiff. He praised "the dream of a humanity
freed of walls of division, freed of hostility, where there are no longer
strangers, but only fellow citizens -- fellow citizens who are diverse, yet
proud of that diversity and individuality, which are God's gift." The plight of
migrants and the notion of fraternity have been key themes of the visit of
Francis, who Saturday travels on to Greece, including the key migrant hub island
of Lesbos. Francis -- on his 35th international trip since becoming pope in 2013
-- is the second Catholic pontiff to visit Cyprus after Benedict XVI in 2010.
'I need his help' -
In the church he thanked migrants who had shared their testimonies of journeys
from Iraq, Sri Lanka, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon, including
one migrant who had declared being "wounded by hate". One South Asian spoke of a
harrowing journey: "I have had to run away from violence, bombs, knives, hunger
and pain. I have been forced along dusty roads, pushed into trucks, hidden in
the trunks of cars, thrown into leaking boats -– deceived, exploited, forgotten,
denied. "I was forced on my journey."The pope said: "Your testimonies are like a
mirror held up to us, to our Christian communities. "We should not be afraid of
our differences, but of the closed-mindedness and prejudice that can prevent us
from truly encountering one another and journeying together."Waiting outside the
church was Nigerian migrant Kingdom Miracle Jonathan, 25. "I would like the pope
to conduct a prayer for me and to tell him how I need his help," he said. "I've
been suffering here ... I have no accommodation, no job, I'm struggling to feed
myself here in Cyprus, so I need help." Staff from the charity Caritas tried to
defuse tensions outside the church as around 100 migrants and asylum seekers,
some with their names on the list to enter, many others not, gathered to try to
go into the church to see the pope. Many others had patiently waited for their
chance to see Francis, who had earlier also addressed 7,000 faithful at a
football stadium. "He speaks about the problem of migration," said Prisca Kedi
Mbiada, 36, from Cameroon. Among the 50 migrants to be transferred to Italy are
10 being held in prison for illegal entry and two Cameroonian asylum seekers who
have been trapped for months in the no-man's land of the "Green Line" that
divides Cyprus, sleeping in a tent. "I feel good, today is my happiest day," one
of the two told AFP as he left the area. "All thanks to the pope!"
'Painful division' -
Cyprus has been split since 1974 when Turkish forces invaded and occupied the
island's northern third in response to a military coup sponsored by the Greek
junta in power at the time. Only Ankara recognises the self-proclaimed Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus, and tensions simmer between the two sides. The
majority-Greek speaking south accuses the north of sending migrants across the
Green Line and says it now receives the highest number of first-time asylum
seekers of any EU member country. The interior ministry in its statement charged
that Turkey, by sending illegal immigrants through the occupied north
"systematically instrumentalizes the migration issue against Cyprus". Francis on
Thursday bemoaned "the terrible laceration" of Cyprus while also urging greater
unity in Europe, instead of nationalism and "walls of fear", as the continent
faces an influx of migrants. "May this island, marked by a painful division,
become by God's grace a workshop of fraternity," he said in the church.
France’s Macron says hoping for progress on Lebanon
‘within next hours’
Reuters/December 03, 2021
PARIS: French President Emmanuel Macron said on Friday he hoped there would be
progress on the Lebanon crisis in the next hours. “We will do all we can to
re-engage the Gulf regions for the benefit of Lebanon... I hope the coming hours
will allow us to make progress.” Macron said during a visit to the United Arab
Emirates. Lebanon is facing a diplomatic crisis with Gulf states, spurred by a
minister’s critical comments about the Saudi Arabia-led intervention in Yemen
that prompted Riyadh, Bahrain and Kuwait to expel Lebanon’s top diplomats and
recall their own envoys. The UAE withdrew its envoys.
Kordahi Resigns, Says Lebanon More Important than Him
Associated Press/Friday, 03 December, 2021
Information Minister George Kordahi resigned Friday, saying he hoped the much
anticipated move will open the way for easing an unprecedented diplomatic crisis
with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries. That crisis has added to
immense economic troubles facing Lebanon, already mired in a financial meltdown.
Kordahi, a prominent former game show host, said he took the decision to step
down ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Saudi Arabia on
Saturday. The resignation, Kordahi said at a press conference in the Lebanese
capital, may help Macron start a dialogue to help restore Beirut-Riyadh
relations. The crisis erupted following Kordahi's televised comments aired in
October that were critical of Saudi Arabia's war in Yemen. The kingdom recalled
its ambassador from Beirut and banned all Lebanese imports in response to
Kordahi's remarks, affecting hundreds of businesses and cutting off hundreds of
millions in foreign currency to Lebanon. The minister said he meant no offense
with the comments, made before he was appointed to the Cabinet post, and for
weeks refused to resign, prolonging the crisis. "Lebanon is more important than
George Kordahi," he said at the press conference Friday. "I hope that this
resignation opens the window" for better relations with Gulf Arab countries, he
added.
The diplomatic spat over Kordahi has aggravated Lebanon's economic crisis, the
worst in its modern history. The country's financial meltdown, coupled with
multiple other crises, has plunged more than three quarters of the nation's
population of 6 million, including a million Syrian refugees, into poverty.
Prime Minister Najib Miqati welcomed Kordahi's resignation, saying it was
necessary and "could open the door for tackling the problem with the brothers in
the kingdom and the Gulf nations."The standoff with Saudi Arabia, a traditional
backer of the small Mediterranean country, has further paralyzed Lebanon's
government, which has been unable to convene since Oct. 12 amid reports that
ministers allied with Hizbullah would resign if Kordahi goes.The Saudi measures
have caused anxiety, particularly among the many Lebanese who work in the Gulf
Arab countries, and added to the country's economic woes. It is not clear
whether Kordahi's resignation would placate Saudi Arabia enough to reverse its
decisions and prevent further escalation, or whether it would open the door for
Lebanese Cabinet meetings to resume. Lebanon's government is embroiled in
another crisis triggered when Hizbullah and Amal Movement protested the course
of Judge Tarek Bitar's investigation into the massive Beirut port explosion last
year. Hizbullah and some of its allies have criticized Bitar, saying his probe
was politicized, and called on the government to ensure his removal. Local media
reported there were mediations to trade Bitar's removal from the probe with
Kordahi's resignation. Kordahi's resignation comes ahead of Macron's visit to
Riyadh on Saturday. Macron backs Miqati's government and has taken the lead
among the international community in helping the small Mideast country, a former
French protectorate. "I understood that the French want my resignation before
Macron visits Riyadh, which would help, maybe in opening the way for dialogue,"
Kordahi said. A senior official from the French presidency, speaking to
reporters earlier this week, said Macron will discuss strengthening cooperation
with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Arab countries "to prevent Lebanon from sinking
even further." The official spoke Tuesday on condition of anonymity in line with
policy.
After accepting Kordahi's resignation, Miqati said called on his Cabinet to
convene and end the deadlock that has paralyzed the government for weeks. Saudi
officials have said the crisis goes beyond Kordahi's comments and is rooted in
the kingdom's unease about the increasing clout of Hizbullah in Lebanon. Lebanon
has been caught in the middle of Saudi Arabia's years-old regional rivalry with
Iran, Hizbullah's chief backer, and the Lebanese-Saudi relations have been
steadily worsening over the years. Kordahi, in the televised interview, had said
the war in Yemen was futile and called it an aggression by the Saudi-led
coalition. The conflict began with the 2014 takeover of Yemen's capital, Sanaa,
by the Houthi rebels, who control much of the country's north. The Saudi-led
coalition entered the war the following year, determined to restore the
internationally recognized government and oust the rebels. Kordahi said Friday
he was resigning even though he was unconvinced that this was needed, adding
that "Lebanon does not deserve this treatment" from Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon: Political Parties Organize Ranks In
Union Elections Ahead of Parliamentary Polls
Beirut -Nazir RidaAsharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03
December, 2021
The recent union elections in Lebanon saw some of the major political parties
disregard their political differences and join forces in electoral alliances
that led to some victories, ahead of the upcoming parliamentary polls.
After a resounding loss that the parties in power encountered in union and
university elections over the last two years that followed the uprising of Oct.
2019, political blocs were able to achieve some success in union elections this
year, hand in hand, directly or by agreement with independent candidates. The
results affected the momentum of the civil groups, which were unable to form
strong fronts amid differences over electoral alliances, according to sources in
the opposition who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat. The Press Editors Syndicate’s
elections on Wednesday witnessed the success of a list supported by various
Lebanese political parties. Similarly, the elections of the Beirut Bar
Association saw disputing political parties agree on a list headed by Lawyer
Nader Gaspar, who achieved victory. However, according to political sources, the
agreement to support specific candidates in the union elections “cannot be built
upon as a full alliance”, given that each election “has its own circumstances
and calculations.”Sources close to the Amal Movement said that in the union
elections, “there was an intersection between the movement and other parties,
including Al-Kataeb, Al-Mustaqbal and the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), but
this was controlled by specific circumstances related to the nature of the
election. It cannot be generalized or built upon as preparations for the
parliamentary elections.” Political parties and forces deal with the union
elections differently, as the parliamentary elections include regional and
partisan criteria. Each party had set a framework for its alliances in the
upcoming parliamentary elections. While the PSP did not shut the door to an
alliance with the Lebanese Forces and Al-Mustaqbal, sources close to the Amal
Movement stressed that alliances were open with any party with whom it would
share converging stances. For his part, resigned MP Elias Hankash said that Al-Kataeb
party was committed to its decision to forge alliances only with figures from
outside the parliament and the government. “The closest to us are the resigned
deputies and groups with whom we agree on two issues: Lebanon’s sovereignty and
rejection of the ‘state within the state’, and the fight against corruption,”
Hankash told Asharq Al-Awsat.
Lebanon’s Information Minister Quits to Ease Gulf
Dispute
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
Lebanon's information minister resigned on Friday, saying he was putting the
country before his personal interest to help end a diplomatic dispute with Saudi
Arabia and other Gulf countries brought on by his comments. George Kordahi, a TV
host-turned-politican, said he had quit before Emmanuel Macron visited Saudi
Arabia in the hope that the French president would help ease the crisis
triggered by his offensive remarks. Saudi Arabia expelled Lebanon's envoy to the
Kingdom, recalled its ambassador to Beirut and banned Lebanese imports after
Kordahi's comments, which Riyadh said were a symptom of the wider issue of
Iran-backed Hezbollah's grip on Lebanon. mOther Gulf states, including the
United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait, followed Saudi Arabia's lead with
similar measures against Lebanon. Kordahi had refused to resign in the weeks
afterwards even as Prime Minister Najib Mikati asked him to put "national
interest" first. "I understood from Mikati...that the French want my resignation
to take place ahead of his (Macron's) visit," Kordahi told a news conference. He
said he believed Mikati had assurances that Macron would discuss Lebanon's ties
with Riyadh. "I refuse to be used as a reason to harm Lebanon and my fellow
Lebanese in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries," he said, adding he wanted to
prevent any punitive action against the hundreds of thousands of Lebanese living
in Gulf states. Macron said on Friday he hoped there would be "progress" on the
Lebanon crisis in the next hours and said France would "do all we can to
re-engage the Gulf regions for the benefit of Lebanon," in comments made during
a visit to the United Arab Emirates.
Lebanon’s Foreign Ministry Condemns Houthi Attack on Saudi Arabia
Beirut - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The Lebanese foreign ministry has condemned the attempted attacks by Yemen’s
Houthi militias on Saudi Arabia, stressing permanent support for the Kingdom.
The ministry “strongly condemned” Wednesday’s attempted terrorist attack on the
Kingdom through a booby-trapped boat, and earlier, through a drone. In a
statement, it affirmed the Lebanese government’s “permanent support for the
brotherly Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against all what affects the security,
stability and the safety of its citizens.”The Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in
Yemen said Wednesday it had destroyed an explosive-laden boat used by the
Iran-backed group in the south of the Red Sea. The Coalition had earlier
destroyed a drone which took off from Sanaa international airport.
Protesters Storm Public Works Ministry, Ask to Meet
Minister
Naharnet/Friday, 03 December, 2021
A number of protesters stormed Friday the Ministry of Public Works and Transport
in Hazmieh, asking to meet the minister. Minister of Public Works and Transport
Ali Hamiyeh told the protesters, after listening to their demands, that he
realizes the size of the gap between the government and people’s needs. “I will
not keep the port of Beirut a hostage to local or regional political conflicts”
he added. “The port must return to what it was before.”Hamiyeh declared that the
Ministry of Works’ budget is LBP90 billion and that it was used “to pave the
main roads that directly affect the citizens’ safety." “I will work according to
the law,” Hamiyeh said, adding that “the Central Inspection is welcome” and that
“it is the first and last authority to impeach employees.”
Lira Regains Some of Its Value after Kordahi's
Resignation
Agence France Presse/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The plummeting Lebanese pound on Friday regained some of its value against the
dollar after dropping to a record low last week, after Information Minister
George Kordahi announced his resignation, in a move that could defuse a major
diplomatic crisis with Gulf countries.
The pound, also known as lira, was trading at about 22,000 to the greenback, up
from more than 25,000 just days earlier. Kordahi's announcement coincided with a
visit to the Gulf by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has spearheaded
international efforts to help Lebanon out of its worst ever economic downturn.
Waste Collection Stops in Beirut, Mt. Lebanon
Threatening New Crisis
Naharnet/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The CityBlu and Ramco companies have stopped waste sweeping and collection
operations in Beirut and Mount Lebanon, which might lead to a new garbage crisis
in the country, al-Jadeed TV said. The TV network said the suspension comes in
protest at “the failure to settle the contracts” with the state-run Council for
Development and Reconstruction (CDR). Environment Minister Nasser Yassine
meanwhile met with Prime Minister Najib Miqati and discussed with him the need
for devising “a more sustainable plan for managing solid waste.”“We are working
to avoid the crisis resulting from the strike of the workers of waste collection
companies, seeing as there is a problem in the contracts between the firms and
CDR, and we discussed means to resolve it,” Yassine said after the meeting. “We
are trying to facilitate the companies’ contracts with CDR and to introduce
amendments taking into consideration the current (financial) inflation,” the
minister added, noting that he will follow up on the issue with the Interior
Minister in order to “avoid a crisis on the streets.”
Escaping Slow Death in Beirut, Lebanese Embrace Farm
Life
Agence France Presse/Friday, 03 December, 2021
At 28, Thurayya left behind the Beirut neighborhood where she was born and moved
to the family farm, not because of environmental concerns but forced there by
Lebanon's bruising crises. "Living in the city has become very miserable," she
told AFP from the lush south Lebanon farmland planted with avocado trees that is
now her home. "The quiet violence of city life sucks you dry of energy, of
money... It was just too much." Lebanon's unprecedented economic crisis, the
coronavirus pandemic and last year's massive and deadly explosion of chemical
fertilizer at Beirut's port have dimmed the cosmopolitan appeal of the capital.
Many are turning their backs on urban life and heading for their ancestral towns
and villages, where they can cut down on living costs and forge new connections
with a long-forgotten agricultural inheritance. In October, Thurayya moved to
the two-story house built by her father in the south Lebanon village of Sinay.
She took the step only weeks after her Beirut landlord said she would quadruple
the rent at a time when electricity generator bills and transportation costs
were already spiralling beyond reach for most. "It didn't make sense for me to
stay in Beirut," Thurayya said. "It's pitch dark, there is garbage everywhere
and you don't feel safe... it's hostile in its unfamiliarity."
YouTube farming tips
Now, when she's not working remotely for a non-profit group, Thurayya spends
much of her time in her family's farmland, discovering how plants look when they
need water and the feel of ripening fruit. She has turned to YouTube to learn
how to prune trees and pestered local farmers for tips on how to best tend to a
plot she hopes to one day take over. "We are about to plant the new season and
that's what I'm really excited for," Thurayya said. "I want to follow the
planting from seed to harvest and I want to be there for all of those steps."In
a country where no official census has been held since 1932, there is little
data on the demographic shift to rural areas, which are largely underprivileged
and underserved. But a long-standing trend towards rapid urbanization seems to
be slowing partly due to diminishing job prospects in major cities, where the
cost of living is 30 percent higher than in the countryside. A spike last year
in the number of construction permits outside Beirut suggest such a movement,
according to Lebanon's Blominvest bank. Information International, a consultancy
firm, estimates that more than 55,000 people have relocated to rural areas.
UN-Habitat Lebanon said that some mayors and heads of unions of municipalities
had also reported an increase in the number of people moving, although it said
it had no data to verify or quantify these claims. "The lack of rural
development plans and the highly centralised nature of Lebanon are expected to
ultimately deter a counter-urbanisation in the long run," said Tala Kammourieh
of the agency's Urban Analysis and Policy Unit.
'Suffocation' of city life
Another Beirut escapee, graphic designer Hassan Trad, was ploughing a craggy
field near the southern village of Kfar Tibnit and said he now steers clear of
the "suffocation" of city life. "My return to the village is an escape from
three crises," the 44-year-old said, scattering thyme seeds on a bed of soil. He
pointed to the country's economic collapse, the pandemic, and the so-called
trash crisis that has long left festering piles of garbage strewn across the
city. Trad, a father-of-four who works remotely as a freelancer for a daily
newspaper, started weaning away from the capital in 2016 but resettled full-time
after Covid-19 and last year's portside blast. Hassan said the cost of schooling
his children is about half what it would be in the city but, more importantly,
he can grow an agriculture business to supplement his salary. "I took advantage
of the crisis and grew closer to farming and working the land," he told AFP from
one of his many plots. "I now have a deeper attachment to my village."Writer and
essayist Ibrahim Nehme, 35, who was severely wounded when the Beirut port blast
ripped through his home, has sought solace in his family's north Lebanon village
of Bechmizzine. "An explosion that made me lose touch with my ground eventually
led me to realise how much I am connected to my land," he wrote in a recent
essay reflecting on the months he spent recovering there from his injuries. In
June, he left Beirut and rented a chalet by the sea, only a 20-minute drive away
from his family's olive grove. He is not yet ready to commit fully to village
life but Nehme said he is growing to realise his role in safeguarding an
agricultural legacy left to him by his forefathers. "I am connected here, I am
rooted," he said. "I have these olive trees, and one day I will have to take
care of them."
A package deal
Nicholas Frakes/Now Lebanont/Friday, 03 December, 2021
A month after past comments on the war in Yemen sparked a diplomatic crisis
between Lebanon and the Gulf, Information Minister George Kordahi resigned in
what analysts say is one part of a package deal to address more complex issues
facing Lebanese politics.
Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi whose remarks on the Saudi
intervention in Yemen’s war sparked a row with Gulf countries that exacerbated
Lebanon’s multiple crises resigned on Friday. After over a month of negotiations
among Lebanese political factions and diplomatic efforts to mend the friendship
with Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, Kordahi,
speaking during a press conference, said he hoped this decision “could open a
window… towards improved bilateral ties” with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies.
“I decided to give up my ministerial position because Lebanon is more important
than me and I do not accept to be used as a reason to harm the Lebanese in the
Gulf countries, because the interests of my country and my loved ones are above
my personal interests,” the minister told the press in a much-anticipated
announcement.
At the end of October, Saudi Arabia and several members of the Gulf Cooperation
Council withdrew their envoys and halted trade with Lebanon. The move came after
comments made by Kordahi in an interview aired on Al Jazeera condemning Saudi
Arabia’s role in the conflict with Yemen and defending the actions by the
Iran-backed Houthis. The Interview was recorded in August, a month before the
former host of the Arab franchise of “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” show was
appointed Minister of Information in Beirut. Analysts in Beirut say that,
as late as it comes, Kordahi’s resignation serves as an olive branch from the
Lebanese government to the Saudis and other Gulf countries, claiming that they
are serious about repairing the fractured relations. The announcement coincided
with a visit to the Gulf by French President Emmanuel Macron, who has
spearheaded international efforts to help Lebanon out of its worst-ever economic
downturn. Kordahi said the resignation, which he had initially ruled out, became
inevitable earlier this week when he met Prime Minister Najib Mikati. “I
understood from Prime Minister Najib Mikati… that the French want my resignation
before Macron’s visit to Riyadh because it could maybe help them start a
dialogue with Saudi officials over Lebanon and the future of bilateral ties,”
Kordahi told reporters, as quoted by AFP. Michael Young, senior editor at the
Carnegie Middle East Center and longtime analyst of Lebanese and regional
political developments, says that there is more than meets the eye when it comes
to Kordahi’s resignation. “This was already in response to a French condition
but it was also probably a response to a Hezbollah condition,” Young told NOW.
“Perhaps it was some kind of loosening on the Saudi’s side when it comes to
Lebanon. Had the Saudis not given anything, it’s unlikely that Kordahi would
have resigned,” he pointed out.
The olive branch
The diplomatic crisis first began when an interview with Kordahi recorded in
August aired months later. Saudi Arabia was the first to announce that it was
expelling the Lebanese ambassador in Riyadh, and that they were recalling theirs
from Beirut. Soon after, Bahrain, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Yemen
followed suit. Analysts were quick to point out that these actions from the Gulf
were far too extreme to be solely in response to comments made before the former
TV star was even selected to be part of Lebanon’s new government.
“The distrust runs much deeper than the comments of a minister,” Kristof
Kleemann, director of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom’s Beirut
office, told NOW. “This was kind of a pretext for the Saudis back then to
implement the measures that they took. The Saudi foreign minister said that.”
Indeed, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud said
himself that this was about Hezbollah’s expanding influence in Lebanon.
It’s a step that was necessary but certainly not sufficient to have the
possibility of an improvement of relations. Definitely, it’s not going to change
very much on its own. There is a process that would have to be in place and this
is a very first step that shows a Lebanese desire to improve relations.
“I think we have come to the conclusion that dealing with Lebanon and its
current government is not productive and not helpful with Hezbollah’s continuing
dominance of the political scene, and with what we perceive as a continuing
reluctance by this government and Lebanese political leaders in general to enact
the necessary reforms, the necessary actions to push Lebanon in the direction of
real change,” the Saudi minister told CNBC. Not many expected the Lebanese
government to immediately drop the hammer on Hezbollah, especially given that
the majority of the government is affiliated with the armed group.
However, many noted that Kordahi’s resignation would be the absolute minimum
that the government could do to try and patch things up with the Gulf.
Despite taking a month to happen, his resignation eventually came.
“His resignation was a first step,” Young explained. “It’s a step that was
necessary but certainly not sufficient to have the possibility of an improvement
of relations. Definitely, it’s not going to change very much on its own. There
is a process that would have to be in place and this is a very first step that
shows a Lebanese desire to improve relations.” Kleemann agreed that, while
Kordahi resigning is important for trying to better relations with the Saudis,
it is unlikely to change much in the long run. “They might reconsider some of
the measures that they have implemented like the export ban,” Kleemann said.
“But I don’t think that relations between the Gulf states and Lebanon would go
back to normal as they were before 2017 or a huge financial transfer would
happen from the Gulf states towards Lebanon.”
Mohanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, added that while
it will not solve the crisis it will help smooth things over with the Gulf.
“This kind of solves the impasse that we are seeing,” he told NOW. “Kordahi
resigns and this will kind of push for a truce with the Gulf region. So there
will not be any more escalation on the Gulf side of things.”
Relations are bound to remain sour
France’s Macron expressed hope that the resignation could open some doors and
lead to the end of the diplomatic crisis. “I remain cautious, but my wish is… to
be able to re-engage all the Gulf countries in their relationship with Lebanon,”
the French president told reporters while in Dubai. Even though there is still a
lot of work that needs to be done in order to renormalize relations with the
Gulf, Lebanon could see some of the tough measures taken by the Gulf lifted. One
of the most often mentioned is the ban on agricultural imports from Lebanon, but
Young is quick to point out that the ban has more to it than just a recent
punitive measure, and has more to do with curbing the smuggling of amphetamine
tablets, more commonly known as Captagon, into the Gulf. Young puts forth that
one of the most likely scenarios that Lebanon might see is the return of the
Gulf’s ambassadors to Beirut.
The only possibility for the relations between Saudi Arabia and other Gulf
states and Lebanon to go back on track on a significant level would be one after
an election where Hezbollah does not play a role in the future government. I
don’t see that as very realistic but I think that would be the only way to go
back to a real normalization of relations.
While that is helpful in thawing the icy relations, it is still a long way off
from normalization, something that is likely to occur only if the government
curbs Hezbollah’s influence and power in Lebanon. Both Young and Kleemann
believe that this is pure fantasy. “Obviously, Hezbollah is not going to
suddenly say ‘No, we’re going to give up and Iran as well,’ Young stated.
“That’s not going to happen.” “The only possibility for the relations between
Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and Lebanon to go back on track on a
significant level would be one after an election where Hezbollah does not play a
role in the future government. I don’t see that as very realistic but I think
that would be the only way to go back to a real normalization of relations,”
Kleemann added. “Believing that the role of Hezbollah will not diminish, I think
that the relations between the Gulf states will remain sour.”The Gulf may soon
show the Lebanese their appreciation for Kordahi’s resignation, but it was not
the only deal struck in the midst of the diplomatic crisis. Prior to Kordahi’s
resignation, Hezbollah leaders have pointed out that they backed the Information
Minister and their ministers would also resign with him. However, Hezbollah
remained silent when rumors of Kordahi’s impending resignation started
circulating, hinting that some sort of deal was being struck behind closed doors
between Lebanon’s political elite.
Back to Tarek Bitar
Besides the ongoing diplomatic crisis with the Gulf, there has been one other
issue that has continued to overshadow all of Mikati’s cabinet activity: Tarek
Bitar’s investigation into the August 4 Beirut port explosion. For nearly two
months, the government has been unable to meet since Hezbollah, Amal Movement
and Marada Movement’s refusal to do so until the issue of the investigation has
been addressed. “Everything will be stopped until they find some sort of way out
for the political class through shifting some of the Bitar powers when it comes
to pursuing political leaders and the port investigation, ” Hage Ali said. The
Kordahi debacle only added fuel to the fire and gave Hezbollah more leverage to
force Mikati to take action against Bitar. Young believes that Hezbollah and
others used Miktati’s desperate need to have Kordahi resign as a way of striking
a deal.
“In a sense, what began as a relatively simple thing, which was Kordahi and
getting rid of Kordahi, was complicated by the fact that there was also the
issue of Bitar which preceded Kordahi and was complicated by the fact that
Michel Aoun wants in on the deal and he wants guarantees on the elections which
eventually, in his mind, is tied to the succession question of Gebran [Bassil].
What was a simple issue has multiplied into a more complicated issue,” Young
explained.
While there have been no recent announcements about the Beirut Blast
investigation, there have been proposals put forward in which Bitar would be
dismissed and the ministers who are being investigated by Bitar would be
prosecuted in front of a special court for ministers and politicians,
effectively ensuring that they would face no consequences. However, in order for
a deal on this to be reached, this would need to be voted on in the parliament,
something that Hage Ali says would face fierce opposition from the Lebanese
Forces as well as anti-establishment parties and groups. In addition to this,
there are currently disagreements between President Michel Aoun and
Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri over when the elections should be held.
At the heart of the problem today is Bitar. The Bitar investigation.
Berri has been pushing for early elections in March while Aoun dismisses the
idea, saying that they should continue to be held in May. “The way out of this
is some kind of multifaceted deal has to be worked out where elections are
delayed until May,” Young stated. “They need some kind of agreement on what to
do with Bitar. At this point, they are still working on the mechanism to get rid
of him by essentially voting so that the ministers will be tried in front of
that special court for officials.” If an agreement can be reached on when to
hold elections, then members of Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement will vote in
favor of this new court for prosecuting ministers so that way Aoun’s son-in-law,
Gebran Bassil, is not tainted by the vote when he runs for president. Suleiman
Frangieh also would benefit from this sort of arrangement. Even though Kordahi
comes from Frangieh’s Marada Party, it is more important for the party leader
that the Bitar investigation be stopped. “At the heart of the problem today is
Bitar. The Bitar investigation,” Young said. “And Frangieh wants to get rid of
Bitar too because if [former minister and Marada member Youssef] Fenianos is
linked in any way to the blast, this would undermine or weaken [Frangieh’s]
claim to be president next year.”
*Nicholas Frakes is a multimedia journalist with @NOW_leb. He tweets @nicfrakesjourno.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published December
03-04/2021
Israel’s Bennett Postpones Visit to Abu Dhabi
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has decided to postpone a planned trip to
the United Arab Emirates this month amid the uncertainty surrounding the Omicron
variant. Sources close to the premier said that his decision comes in line with
the preventive measures taken by both countries to limit the risk of the new
variant’s outbreak. However, independent sources said Israel did not add the UAE
to its list of countries the citizens are banned to travel to. Therefore, it is
more likely that Bennett is facing severe criticism in the political circle
after his wife and children flew abroad for the Passover holiday. His family has
ignored his own guidelines just days after the Israeli leader urged citizens to
avoid international travel because of the new coronavirus variant. Their trip
came after Israel tightened travel restrictions in light of the omicron variant.
Israel closed its border to foreign visitors and barred travel to much of
Africa, but Israelis are still allowed to fly to other countries and must
quarantine when they return. His family’s decision has sparked an outcry and
raised questions about the public’s trust in leaders at a time of a major
crisis. Bennett was attacked by political rivals and everyday Israelis itching
to return to normalcy. He was asked about his family’s trip and said they were
not violating the new travel rules. He said they were expected to fly to a
country that subsequently was banned to travel for Israelis and then changed
their destination.More had been revealed about where the virus has spread since
his decision to limit travel, he noted. “I understand the criticism,” Bennett
wrote on Facebook. “Everyone is leaving while following the restrictions and
will of course quarantine as is required.”Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has also
been slammed for spending his vacation in France, especially that the Interior
Minister, Ayelet Shaked, and other ministers cancelled their trips following the
premier’s decision.
US hits out at Iran for not coming to Vienna with
constructive proposals
Joseph Haboush & Nadia Bilbassy-Charters, Al Arabiya English/03 December ,2021
The US criticized Iran on Friday after the seventh round of indirect talks over
the now-defunct 2015 nuclear deal, saying Tehran did not come to Vienna with
constructive proposals. “The first six rounds of negotiations made progress,
finding creative compromise solutions to many of the hardest issues that were
difficult for all sides. Iran’s approach this week was not, unfortunately, to
try to resolve the remaining issues,” a State Department spokesperson said in a
statement. “The new Iranian administration did not come to Vienna with
constructive proposals,” the official added. Later Friday, US Secretary of State
Antony Blinken slammed Iran for not being serious during this week’s talks.
“What we’ve seen in the last couple of days is that Iran, right now, does not
seem to be serious about doing what’s necessary to return to compliance, which
is why we ended this round of talks in Vienna,” he said during the Reuters Next
conference. Iran’s top diplomat was quoted as saying the Europeans and Americans
were not serious in their efforts to reach an agreement on a return to the deal,
also known as the JCPOA. But senior European diplomats said Friday they were
concerned over Iran’s new proposals, which were seen as a reneging on previous
agreements reached in earlier rounds of talks. Asked about this week’s talks in
Vienna, led by the US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley, the State Department
official said Washington’s delegation was returning to the DC. Citing Iran’s
“new round of nuclear provocations,” the State Department official said Tehran
had still failed to reach an understanding with the UN atomic watchdog to
restore transparency “they have degraded in recent months.”As has been customary
under the new US administration, the spokesperson blasted the Trump
administration’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA that has led to a “dramatic
and unprecedented expansion of Iran’s nuclear program.” “That cannot continue.
It will inevitably lead to a crisis,” the spokesperson said. Blinken said: “If
the path to a return to compliance with the agreement turns out to be a
dead-end, we will pursue other options.”
Europe disappointed at Iran’s stance in nuclear talks
Reuters/03 December ,2021
Senior diplomats from France, Britain and Germany taking part in talks on
reviving the Iran nuclear deal on Friday expressed “disappointment and concern”
at Tehran’s proposed alterations to a text that had been agreed on in previous
rounds. “Major changes (have been) demanded (by Iran),” the officials said in a
statement, adding that some were incompatible with the 2015 deal. It is “unclear
how these new gaps can be closed in a realistic timeframe on the basis of
Iranian drafts,” they said.
Clashes Rock Arab Town in North Israel, Alleged
Car-Rammer Killed
Associated Press/Friday, 03 December, 2021
A night of violence ignited when a man was shot and killed in an Arab town in
northern Israel ended on Friday with police shooting and killing a man involved
in an alleged car-ramming attack that wounded two officers, Israeli officials
said. The chaos in the town of Umm al-Fahm comes amid a wave of violent crime in
Israel's Arab community that shows no sign of abating, despite far-reaching
action announced in recent months by Israeli authorities. Armed clashes among
residents erupted after a man was shot and killed earlier on Thursday. Israeli
police and firefighters raced to the town as gunfire rang out and buildings were
set ablaze. Early Friday, paramilitary Border Police opened fire on a vehicle
speeding toward them, fatally shooting one man and wounding the other in the
car, who was arrested after receiving medical treatment, Border Police said.
They said the two officers suffered light to moderate wounds.
They said a gun and ammunition were found in the car, and that the two men were
suspected of involvement in violent family disputes that have rocked Umm al-Fahm
in recent months. Authorities said the car-ramming was not politically
motivated. Arab towns across Israel have seen a major escalation in violence in
recent years driven by organized crime and family feuds. At least 117 Arabs have
been killed in 2021, the highest number on record, according to the Abraham
Initiatives, which promotes Jewish-Arab coexistence. The crime rate among Arabs
far exceeds their 20% share of the population.
Arab citizens of Israel have the right to vote, most speak fluent Hebrew, and
they have a large presence in the country's universities and medical profession.
But they face widespread discrimination, especially with housing. They have
close familial ties to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, and
largely identify with their cause, leading many Jewish Israelis to view them
with suspicion. Jewish-Arab violence erupted across Israel during the Gaza war
in May. Arab activists have long accused police of ignoring crime in their
communities. Israeli officials have touted a number of initiatives in recent
years, including larger budgets for law enforcement in Arab communities, but
police say local leaders could do more to help them. Israel's current government
pledged major action against crime in Arab communities in August as it announced
a wave of arrests. That was a central demand of a small party that made history
this year by being the first Arab faction to join a ruling coalition. Israeli
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett expressed support for the police on Friday,
calling for improved security and further dialogue with Arab leaders.
Israeli agents convinced Iranian scientists to blow up
their own nuclear facilities
Arab News/December 03, 2021
LONDON: Agents from the Mossad convinced Iranian scientists to blow up their own
nuclear facilities by “posing as dissidents” and smuggling explosives disguised
as food into facilities, according to reports. According to The Jewish
Chronicle, Israeli agents convinced up to 10 scientists to destroy the Natanz
nuclear facility, wiping out 90 percent of its centrifuges – crucial for
research into nuclear weapons. They are said to have smuggled some explosives
into the plant in food lorries, while others were dropped in via drones and
picked up by scientists – who they convinced to use against the nuclear sites by
posing as Iranian dissidents. The attack on the facility is just one of a long
line of Israeli sabotages of Iranian nuclear facilities, a strategy that they
have engaged in more as Iranian nuclear research has progressed. The Natanz
facility, a critical nuclear research site, has been hit by at least three
attacks linked to the Israeli secret service, the Mossad.
In another incident, agents used a quadcopter drone to fire missiles at the Iran
Centrifuge Technology Company in an attempt to disrupt its research. In recent
years, following the US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Iran has
increased its atomic energy research, including enriching growing quantities of
uranium above the levels required for civilian nuclear activity such as energy
production. In April Iran said that it would start enriching uranium up to 60
percent after the attack on its Natanz plant which it blamed on Israel – that is
closing in on the 90 to 95 percent enrichment required for nuclear weapons.
This week – much to the ire of Israel – Iran and the US returned to the
negotiating table to try to find a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear activity in
exchange for relief from crushing economic sanctions imposed on the country by
the US and its allies. But on Thursday, Israeli officials called on the US
directly to cease those negotiations. In a phone call with US Secretary of State
Anthony Blinken, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett called for “concrete
measures” to be taken against Iran. He said that Tehran was carrying out
“nuclear blackmail” as a negotiation tactic and that “this must be met with an
immediate cessation of negotiations and by concrete steps taken by the major
powers,” according to a statement released by his office. The Israeli leader
also expressed his concern about a new report from the UN, issued during the
US-Iran talks in Vienna, which showed that Iran had “started the process of
enriching uranium to the level of 20 percent purity with advanced centrifuges at
its Fordo underground facility.”Israel, the only nuclear-armed state in the
Middle East, has pledged never to allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons.
UN General Assembly Says Any Action to Change Status Quo
in Jerusalem Is Illegal
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The United Nations General Assembly adopted a new resolution reiterating that
any actions taken by Israel, the occupying power, to impose its laws,
jurisdiction and administration on the Holy City of Jerusalem are “illegal.”The
Assembly stressed that a comprehensive, just and lasting solution the question
of the City of Jerusalem should take into account the legitimate concerns of
both the Palestinian and Israeli sides. The resolution urges halting incitement,
especially in religiously sensitive sites, with the need to preserve the
historical and legal status quo in the city. Also, a majority of 148 member
states voted for a resolution dubbed “Peaceful settlement of the Palestinian
cause,” while nine states objected it and 14 states refused to vote. The
Assembly reiterated its call for the achievement of a comprehensive, just and
lasting peace in the Middle East. The United States and Israel objected both
resolutions.
The lack of progress on this issue, despite it having been on the United
Nations’ Agenda since 1948, is “disheartening,” President of the General
Assembly Abdullah Shahid said in his opening remarks. “Year after year we speak
of the appalling humanitarian crisis in Palestine, especially the Gaza Strip,”
he noted, stressing that words are insufficient. “Words cannot substitute for
the lack of running water, electricity, proper sanitation and decent living
conditions that millions of Palestinians endure.”
Today marks 74 years since the General Assembly adopted Resolution 181, he said.
“We recall that this resolution provided the legal foundation for the formation
of the State of Israel – and a State of Palestine for the Palestinian People,
yet, until now, we have not achieved the establishment of a state for the
Palestinian people in line with international law.” The Permanent Observer for
the State of Palestine, Riyad Mansour, said it is time to end this deplorable
situation, calling for collective, responsible action to protect human life and
uphold the rule of law. “It is time to stop appeasing Israel and rewarding its
transgressions,” he said, stressing that the “absence of a credible political
horizon — and failure to enforce accountability for Israel’s systematic
human‑rights abuses and war crimes — has only prolonged the conflict.”Israel’s
ambassador to the UN Gilad Erdan slammed the vote on both resolutions stressing
that “valuable time, effort and resources are wasted, instead of focused on the
world’s most pressing challenges.”He said “Israel is the primary focus of the UN
and endures endless attacks,” he said. “The Iranian regime, which murders
thousands of its citizens, is hardly mentioned, along with Syria, which uses
chemical weapons on its citizens and has made millions of them homeless.”
France Signs Weapons Mega-Deal with UAE as Macron Tours
Gulf
Associated Press/Friday, 03 December, 2021
France announced multibillion-euro deals Friday to sell fighter planes and
combat helicopters to the United Arab Emirates, aiming to boost military
cooperation with its top ally in the Persian Gulf amid their shared concerns
about Iran.
The UAE is buying 80 upgraded Rafale warplanes in a deal the French Defense
Ministry said is worth 16 billion euros ($18 billion) and represents the
largest-ever French weapons contract for export. It also announced a deal with
the UAE to sell 12 Airbus-built combat helicopters.
They offer a shot in the arm for France's defense industry after the collapse of
a $66 billion contract for Australia to buy 12 French submarines that ultimately
went to the U.S. But the deals faced criticism by human rights groups concerned
about the UAE's involvement in the yearslong war in Yemen.
The UAE contracts were signed as French President Emmanuel Macron visited the
country on the first stop of a two-day visit to the Persian Gulf. France and
Gulf countries have long been concerned by Iran's nuclear ambitions and
influence across the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
France has particularly deep ties to the UAE, a federation of seven sheikhdoms
on the Arabian Peninsula. France has a naval base there and French warplanes and
personnel also are stationed in a major facility outside the Emirati capital,
Abu Dhabi. Speaking to reporters in Dubai, Macron said they are important
contracts for the deepening defense cooperation between France and the UAE that
will contribute to the stability of the region and enhance a common fight
against terrorism. In addition, "it's important for our economy because the
planes are manufactured in France," he said.
Macron and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi
and the UAE's de factor ruler, were present at the Rafale contract signing.
Manufacturer Dassault Aviation said the UAE is buying the upgraded F4 version of
its multirole Rafale combat aircraft. That will make the Emirates Air Force the
first Rafale F4 user outside of France, it said. Dassault Aviation boss Eric
Trappier called the sale "a French success story" and "excellent news for France
and for its aeronautical industry."The purchase marks a sizable step up for the
UAE's military capabilities in the oil- and gas-rich region. Charles Forrester,
a senior analyst at Janes, said the fighter "will significantly upgrade UAE's
airpower capabilities in terms of strike, air-to-air warfare, and
reconnaissance." Abu Dhabi also hopes to buy American stealth F-35 fighters
after diplomatically recognizing Israel last year.
Dassault said the Rafale will give the UAE "a tool capable of guaranteeing
sovereignty and operational independence" and that it will start delivering the
planes in 2027. French defense officials were jubilant. Defense Minister
Florence Parly said the Rafale deal "directly contributes to regional
stability." The additional sale of Caracal helicopters also illustrates "the
density of our defense relationship," she said. Human rights groups said weapons
the UAE provides to its Gulf allies could be used "for unlawful attacks or even
war crimes" in Yemen as well as Libya, a conflict that the UAE has been accused
of being involved in through proxies. "France's support for the UAE and Saudi
Arabia is even more objectional as their leaders have failed to improve their
countries' disastrous human rights records domestically, although their public
relations efforts to present themselves as progressive and tolerant
internationally is in full swing," Human Rights Watch said in a statement ahead
of Macron's trip to the Gulf.
Macron's keen interest in forging personal relationships with Abu Dhabi's crown
prince and his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
makes him a welcome guest in the region. Both Gulf leaders value a degree of
pragmatism when discussing democracy and human rights — issues on which their
countries have been heavily criticized by rights groups and European lawmakers —
while pursuing business opportunities. Months after Macron was elected in 2017,
he traveled to the UAE to inaugurate Louvre Abu Dhabi, built under a $1.2
billion agreement to share the name and art of the world-famous museum in Paris.
In September, Macron hosted Abu Dhabi's crown prince at the historic Chateau de
Fontainebleau outside Paris, which was restored in 2019 with a UAE donation of
10 million euros ($11.3 million).
The UAE and France also have become increasingly aligned over a shared mistrust
of Islamist political parties across the Middle East and backed the same side in
Libya's civil strife. A senior French presidency official who spoke to reporters
ahead of the trip on customary condition of anonymity said Macron will "continue
to push and support the efforts that contribute to the stability of the region,
from the Mediterranean to the Gulf."Gulf tensions will be discussed, the
official said, in particular the revived talks about Iran's nuclear deal with
world powers, following then-U.S. President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the
agreement. "This is a hot topic," the French official said, adding that Macron
discussed the issues in a phone call Monday with Iran's president. He will talk
about the call and the issues — including the nuclear deal talks in Vienna —
with Gulf leaders, who are "directly concerned by this subject, like all of us
but also because they are (Iran's) neighbors," the official said.
France, along with Germany and the United Kingdom, thinks the 2015 nuclear
agreement — with minor tweaks — is the way forward with Iran, analysts say. The
UAE and Saudi Arabia bitterly opposed the West's negotiated deal with Iran,
though now both have launched talks with Tehran to cool tensions.
"Although the Gulf countries did not like the West's deal with Iran, the
prospect of it falling apart acrimoniously is also bad for them and arguably
presents worse risks," said Jane Kinninmont, a London-based Gulf expert with the
European Leadership Network think tank. "Their view has always been the West
should have gotten more out of Iran before sealing the deal," Kinninmont said.
"But if the West walks away with nothing, the Gulf countries are beginning to
understand that their security will not improve as a result."
Biden Warns Putin against Ukraine Invasion
Associated Press/Friday, 03 December, 2021
U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday vowed to make it "very, very difficult" for
Russian President Vladimir Putin to take military action in Ukraine, saying his
administration is putting together a comprehensive set of initiatives to curb
Russian aggression. The president offered the measured warning to Putin amid
growing concern about a Russian buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border and
increasingly bellicose rhetoric from the Kremlin. "What I am doing is putting
together what I believe to be will be the most comprehensive and meaningful set
of initiatives to make it very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to go ahead and do
what people are worried he may do," Biden told reporters. There are signs that
the White House and Kremlin are close to arranging a conversation next week
between Biden and Putin. Putin's foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov told
reporters Friday that arrangements have been made for a Putin-Biden call in the
coming days, adding that the date will be announced after Moscow and Washington
finalize details. The Russians say a date has been agreed upon, but declined to
say when. Biden did not detail what actions he was weighing. But Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov, who met Thursday with Secretary of State Antony Blinken
in Sweden, said the U.S. has threatened new sanctions. He did not detail the
potential sanctions but suggested the effort would not be effective. "If the new
'sanctions from hell' come, we will respond," Lavrov said. "We can't fail to
respond."Deep differences were on display during the Blinken-Lavrov meeting,
with the Russia official charging the West was "playing with fire" by denying
Russia a say in any further NATO expansion into countries of the former Soviet
Union. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pushed for Ukraine to join
the alliance, which holds out the promise of membership but hasn't set a a
timeline. Blinken this week said the U.S. has "made it clear to the Kremlin that
we will respond resolutely, including with a range of high-impact economic
measures that we've refrained from using in the past." He did not detail what
sanctions were being weighed, but one potentially could be to cut off Russia
from the SWIFT system of international payments. The European Union's Parliament
approved a nonbinding resolution in April to cut off Russia from SWIFT if its
troops entered Ukraine. Such a move would go far toward blocking Russian
businesses from the global financial system. Western allies reportedly
considered such a step in 2014 and 2015, during earlier Russian-led escalations
of tensions over Ukraine. Then-Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said it
would be tantamount to "a declaration of war."
Officials: Civilians Among 10 Dead In Iraq Attack Blamed on
ISIS
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
At least three civilians and seven Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters have been
killed in northern Iraq in an attack blamed on ISIS, the forces said Friday. The
militants attacked the village of Khidir Jija, south of Erbil, late Thursday,
killing three civilians, a statement said. The peshmerga, Kurdistan's armed
forces, launched an operation in response, and seven fighters died when "an
explosive device planted by IS elements" blew up. The three civilians, siblings
aged 11-24, were children of a village official, a relative told AFP. ISIS
seized swathes of Iraq in a lightning offensive in 2014, before being beaten
back by a counter-insurgency campaign supported by a US-led military coalition.
The Iraqi government declared the ISIS group defeated in late 2017, but the
militants retain sleeper cells which continue to strike security forces with
hit-and-run attacks. Late last month, five Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga fighters were
killed and four wounded in a roadside bombing claimed by ISIS. That bombing,
south of the city of Sulaimaniyah, underlined the "serious threat" ISIS still
poses to the Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan region, the region's prime minister
Masrour Barzani said at the time.
UN Says ISIS Committed War Crimes at Iraqi Prison
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The head of a UN team investigating atrocities in Iraq said that ISIS extremists
committed crimes against humanity and war crimes at a prison in Mosul in June
2014 where at least 1,000 prisoners were systematically killed. Christian
Ritscher told the UN Security Council on Thursday that evidence collected from
mass graves containing the remains of victims of executions carried out at
Badush Central Prison and from survivors shows detailed preparations of the
attack by senior ISIS members followed by an assault on the morning of June 10
that year. "Prisoners captured were led to sites close to the prison, separated
based on their religion and humiliated," he said. "At least 1,000 predominantly
Shiite prisoners were then systematically killed." Ritscher said the
investigators´ analysis of digital, documentary, survivors and forensic
evidence, including ISIS documents, has identified a number of members from the
extremist group who were responsible for the crimes.
As a result of the investigations, he said the UN Investigative Team to Promote
Accountability for Crimes committed by the ISIS in Iraq has concluded that its
committed "crimes against humanity of murder, extermination, torture, enforced
disappearances, persecution and other inhumane acts" at Badush prison as well as
the "war crimes of willful killing, torture, inhumane treatment, and outrage
upon personal dignity."ISIS militants seized Iraqi cities and declared a
self-styled caliphate in a large swathe of territory in Syria and Iraq in 2014.
The group was formally declared defeated in Iraq in 2017 following a three-year
bloody battle that left tens of thousands dead and cities in ruins, but its
sleeper cells continue to launch attacks in different parts of Iraq.
In May, Ritscher´s predecessor Karim Khan told the council that investigators
had found "clear and compelling evidence" that ISIS extremists committed
genocide against the Yazidi minority in 2014. He also said the militant group
successfully developed chemical weapons and used mustard gas.
Ritscher hailed the "landmark moment" two days ago that saw the first-ever
conviction of an ISIS member for the crime of genocide at the regional court in
Frankfurt, Germany. The 29-year-old Iraqi was also convicted of crimes against
humanity, war crimes and bodily harm resulting in death over the death of a
5-year-old Yazidi girl he had purchased as a slave with her mother and then
chained up in the hot sun to die. "We now have the chance, collectively, to make
such prosecutions the norm, not a celebrated exception," Ritscher said. "In
cooperation with Iraqi authorities and those of the Kurdistan region, together
with survivors and with the support of this council, we are building the
evidence that can deliver meaningful justice for all those who suffered from
ISIS crimes in Iraq."
Ritscher said evidence collected relating to the Badush prison attacks
underlined the detailed planning by ISIS in carrying out their atrocities, The
Associated Press reported. The extremist group´s approach "is seen even more
clearly in two other key lines of investigation that have accelerated in the
last six months: the development and use of chemical and biological weapons by
ISIS, and the financial mechanisms through which it sustained its campaign of
violence," he said. The team´s evidence also "shows that ISIS clearly identified
and then seized chemical production factories and other sources of precursor
material, while also overtaking the University of Mosul campus as a hub for
research and development," Ritscher said. The extremist group´s program became
more sophisticated and investigators have identified more than 3.000 victims of
ISIS chemical weapons attacks as well as its use of rocket artillery projectiles
containing a mustard sulfur agent, he said. In his next briefing to the Security
Council, Ritscher said he will present the team´s findings on ISIS´s use of
chemical weapons including the crimes it committed. He also stressed the
critical importance of bringing ISIS financiers and those who profit from the
group´s crimes to justice. Ritscher said investigators have uncovered the inner
workings of the ISIS central treasury and a network of senior leaders who also
acted "as trusted financiers, diverting wealth that ISIS gained through pillage,
theft of property from targeted communities and the imposition of a systematic
and exploitative taxation system imposed on those living under ISIS control."He
said the team recently shared information with the Iraqi judiciary on the use of
money service businesses by the group "as key facilitators of their financing,"
and it looks forward to expanding this kind of cooperation.
UAE, France Sign Historic Deal for 80 Rafale Jets
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
The UAE signed a record 14-billion-euro contract for 80 French-made Rafale jets
and committed billions of euros in other deals as President Emmanuel Macron
kicked off a Gulf tour on Friday. The biggest international order ever made for
the Rafale jets came as Macron held talks with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh
Mohammed bin Zayed at the start of a two-day trip which also includes Qatar and
Saudi Arabia. The UAE also inked an order for 12 Caracal military transport
helicopters for a total bill of more than 17 billion euros. "This is an outcome
of the strategic partnership between the two countries, consolidating their
capacity to act together for their autonomy and security," the French presidency
said in a statement. Abu Dhabi's Mubadala sovereign wealth fund also pledged
eight billion euros in investments in French businesses, while the licence of
the UAE capital's branch of the Louvre art gallery was extended for 10 years to
2047. The Rafale order signed on Friday, while Macron met with Sheikh Mohammed
at Dubai's Expo site, is the biggest made internationally for the aircraft since
it entered into service in 2004, according to AFP. French Defense Minister
Florence Parly called it a "historic contract" which will contribute "directly
to regional stability". The F4 model Rafales, currently under development, will
be delivered from 2027.
Guterres Urges Sudanese to Support Hamdok
Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged the Sudanese people
to support Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok so the country can have “a peaceful
transition towards a true democracy.”His remarks were made during a joint press
conference with African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat on
Thursday. Guterres underlined the efforts made to free Hamdok, including his
phone conversation with Head of the military General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and
the PM. “For me, it was an important victory to see that the Prime Minister was
freed and could return to his post,” he stressed. Guterres said he understands
the “indignation” and outrage of Sudanese, who have seen a military coup that
called into question all of the agreements that had been reached. “But I would
like to appeal for common sense. We have a situation which is, yes, not perfect,
but which could allow for a transition towards democracy,” he said. Faki, for
his part, stressed that the AU continues to encourage both Hamdok and the
military to find a “compromise” on the political side with civil society and
political parties so they can conclude this transition. “In 18 months, in
theory, there should be elections and I think that our political parties should
be preparing for this,” he said.
Libyan Court Says Gadhafi’s Son Can Run for President
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 03 December, 2021
A Libyan court ruled Thursday that son of the late Libyan dictator Moammar
Gadhafi can compete in upcoming presidential elections, overturning a decision
by the country's top electoral body to disqualify him. A court in the southern
province of Sabha ruled in favor of Seif al-Islam Gadhafi, Libyan media outlets
reported. For almost a week, the court had been unable to convene to hear the
appeal after the building was surrounded by armed men who prevented judges from
entering, Last week, Libya´s High National Elections Committee had disqualified
him, citing past convictions linked to using violence against protesters. The
candidate had appealed the ruling. The first round of voting is meant to start
on Dec. 24, though a number of divisive issues need to be resolved before then.
It remains unclear whether any further legal challenges could be made to Seif
al-Islam's candidacy. In a Twitter post late Thursday, he thanked the judges for
risking their personal safety, saying they had done so "in the name of truth."
He also thanked his family and supporters, The Associated Press reported. Seif
al-Islam had been sentenced to death by a Tripoli court in 2015 for using
violence against protesters in the 2011 uprising against his father, though that
ruling has since been called into question by Libya´s rival authorities. He is
also wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of crimes against
humanity related to the uprising. The upcoming vote faces many challenges,
including disputes over the laws governing the elections and occasional
infighting among armed groups. Other obstacles include the deep rift that
remains between the country´s east and west and the presence of thousands of
foreign fighters and troops. Also Thursday, the country's high election
commission said that armed men had attacked four different polling stations in
the town of Azizia and one in the capital of Tripoli. The commission said they
stole or destroyed over 2,000 voting cards, that eligible voters are expected to
carry on the election day.
The Latest The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
December 03-04/2021
Biden's Two-Faced Agenda on Turkey
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/December 3, 2021
Since the summer, everything on the Washington-Ankara axis seems to have gone
wrong.
Is Biden the champion of human rights and universal democratic values that he
claims he is? Or is he an unpleasant cheat with a disappointing fake democratic
agenda?
U.S. President Joe Biden's increasingly hypocritical policy on NATO's
increasingly difficult ally, Turkey, is badly zig-zagging. Pictured: Biden meets
with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the G20 Summit on October 31,
2021, in Rome, Italy. (Photo by Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images)
U.S. President Joe Biden's increasingly hypocritical policy on NATO's
increasingly difficult ally, Turkey, is badly zig-zagging between the U.S.
leader's self-declared advocacy for universal democratic values and Biden's
secret agenda, which he prefers dishonestly to hide: appeasing Turkish President
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan behind closed doors and condemning Turkey's democratic
deficit in public. In less than two years Biden has swung from a pledge to oust
Turkey's autocratic leader to appeasing him behind closed doors.
In a December 2019 interview, then-presidential candidate Biden said that
Erdoğan should be ousted from power through a democratic process and that
support for the opposition was crucial. Turkey's human rights record has gone
downhill from there. The Council of Europe has said that if Turkish courts keep
ignoring rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, it would start
infringement proceedings against Turkey at the end of November.
All the same, on October 31, Biden and Erdoğan apparently had a 70-minute
meeting in a "very positive atmosphere" on the sidelines of the G20 summit in
Rome. They reportedly agreed to form a joint mechanism to improve ties. "During
the meeting," an Erdoğan aide told this author, "Biden's lecture on human rights
did not exceed two minutes." It seems that a U.S. delegation will soon arrive in
Ankara to work on that joint mechanism.
Since the summer, everything on the Washington-Ankara axis seems to have gone
wrong. During a Senate Committee on Foreign Relations hearing in July,
Republican and Democrat Senators criticized Turkish government policies and
demanded more action from the Biden administration. Democratic Senator Bob
Menendez of New Jersey and other Senators expressed concern over the Turkish
government's efforts to ban the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP).
"That's like if President Biden banned the Republican party from participating,"
Menendez said.
The Turkish Democracy Project (TDP) in September called on three U.S. companies
and one German one to cut ties with Baykar Makina, whose TB2 armed drones have
become a weapon of choice for repressive regimes worldwide. According to
Ambassador Mark D. Wallace, CEO of TDP:
"In refusing to cut ties with Turkey in the face of direct evidence of the
crimes the Erdoğan regime is committing using their products, these companies
are demonstrating that they do not take seriously the moral or legal
implications of their actions. Lawmakers must take this into account in
determining how these companies ought to be dealt with."
Before that, a coalition of 27 U.S. Congress members had signed a letter saying
that technology transfers such as the ones these companies show that Turkey
continues to clearly violate the terms of the CAATSA (Countering America's
Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions.
In October, U.S. lawmakers proposed legislation that would require the State
Department to investigate whether a Turkish ultra-nationalist group with links
to the Turkish government, the Gray Wolves, should be designated a Foreign
Terrorist Organization. The Grey Wolves are closely affiliated with the
Nationalist Movement Party, Erdoğan's staunchest political ally.
In late October, Erdoğan ordered 10 ambassadors in Ankara, including those from
the U.S., Germany and France, be declared personae non gratae. The order
followed a statement from the envoys calling for the urgent release of activist
Osman Kavala, who has been in prison for more than four years while supposedly
under investigation for participating in protests and a coup attempt, although
he has never been convicted.
Erdoğan stepped back only after the U.S. Embassy in Ankara stated:
"In response to questions regarding the Statement of October 18, the United
States notes that it maintains compliance with Article 41 of the Vienna
Convention on Diplomatic relations."
Article 41 stipulates that the internal affairs of other states should not be
interfered with.
When bilateral ties seemed to be moving from one low point to another, Erdoğan
shocked the world by saying that the U.S. administration proposed to sell Turkey
a batch of 40 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets -- a claim that quickly turned into a
puzzle. On October 23, the day after Erdoğan's claim, State Department
Spokesperson Ned Price stated that the U.S. had not made any financing offers on
Turkey's request to purchase F-16 warplanes. On November 15, however, a senior
U.S. diplomat told this author that all of the State Department, the Pentagon
and White House were "in agreement to encourage the F-16 sale to Turkey, but
could not guarantee Congress's approval."
Two days after that, on November 17, Turkey's Ministry of Defense said in a
statement that a high-level meeting between military delegations, held in
Washington, was "positive and constructive." Apparently, the F-16 talks will
continue on, with Biden ignoring the Congress.
Both Democratic and Republican U.S. lawmakers urged Biden's administration not
to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey and said they were confident Congress would
block any such exports. In an October 25 letter to Biden and Secretary of State
Antony Blinken, 11 members of the House of Representatives cited "a profound
sense of concern" about recent reports that Turkey might purchase 40 new
Lockheed Martin F-16s and 80 F-16 modernization kits.
Turkey's Ambassador to the U.S., Murat Mercan, an extremely skilful diplomat,
said in an October 27 speech:
"Turkey's increased contributions to the transatlantic community's efforts opens
a window of opportunity for a newly defined alliance relationship between Turkey
and the United States that can still operate under extreme duress, no matter
what the diverging opinions are."
There is something wrong about this Biden riddle. Is Biden the champion of human
rights and universal democratic values that he claims he is? Or is he an
unpleasant cheat with a disappointing fake democratic agenda?
*Burak Bekdil, one of Turkey's leading journalists, was recently fired from the
country's most noted newspaper after 29 years, for writing in Gatestone what is
taking place in Turkey. He is a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2021 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting In Riga Came at a Time of
All Kinds of Happenings
Omer Onhon/Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2021
NATO Foreign Ministers held their last meeting of the year in Riga on November
30-December 1, with lots to talk about. In 2020 Macron had declared that “NATO
is braindead”. He was upset about what he called insufficient consultation among
the Allies. What led him to come up with these comments was basically his
frustration at Turkey’s military operation in Syria. In other words, he was
upset that France was sidelined in an area where it somehow regards itself as
“the country with historical responsibilities”!
It is also worth noting that France, who came up with these complaints, has
always been the lead nation for “less NATO- more EU”. France, which has been the
most vocal proponent of autonomous defense identity for the European Union, has
also argued strongly that the right platform for political consultation is the
European Union and not NATO. In any case, NATO took these arguments seriously
and responded by initiating certain work. The first product was “NATO 2030
agenda” which was developed with a view to ensure that the Alliance could face
effectively the challenges of today and future.
The Alliance is now working on a new Strategic Concept, to be formally adopted
at the Madrid Summit in June 2022. The previous Strategic Concept, adopted in
the Brussels Summit, is eleven years old. Since then, a lot has changed. The new
concept will “define security challenges and outline the political and military
tasks NATO will carry out to address them”. This will be done by way of building
on elements of the old, which are relevant in present times. All these are
taking place at a time when there are various challenges and a worldwide
re-positioning.
The USA is shifting its focus and re-arranging its military assets. Doing this
without compromising in places of major importance, such as Europe and the
Middle East is a serious challenge.
On the other side, Russia and China are also re-positioning. China under
President Xi Jinping is more assertive. Russia is expanding its presence through
posturing, new weapons demos and at times, interference. Russia and China are
conducting joint military activities as well.
Russia and China also have partners and allies. Iran, for example, is on the
stage. In March, China concluded a major agreement with Tehran for 400 billion
dollars of investment over the next 25 years in exchange for steady shipments of
oil and gas. On another note, after so many years, Iran finally was accepted as
a full member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization in September.
With all the geo-strategic and technological developments, security no longer
has boundaries or regional limitations. New partnerships are on the horizon.
NATO Secretary General stressed that NATO should intensify its cooperation with
partners in the Asia-Pacific, namely, Australia, Japan, South Korea and New
Zealand.
That statement should be read in conjunction with developments in Asia and with
formations such as AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom, USA) and Quadrilateral
Security Dialogue/QUAD (India, Japan, Australia, USA).Russsia and China both
have full attention of NATO.
In its June 2021 communique, NATO referred to Russia as a “threat to
Euro-Atlantic security.” In the same document, it was stated that “China can
present challenges.”
Even in six months these references evolved. In the words of NATO Secretary
General in Riga a few days ago; “Russia and China are undermining the
international rules based on order. The Russian regime is aggressive abroad and
oppressive at home. The Chinese Communist Party is using its economic and
military might to coerce other countries and control its own people”.
Whereas China is relatively new to the Alliance, history with Russia goes way
back. In the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a new era
of relations between NATO and Russia. In 2002, the NATO-Russia Council was
established. It was a useful forum for consultation on a wide range of security
issues of common interest. However, Russian intervention in Ukraine in April
2014 and later, and the alleged election interference, cyberattacks and the
targeting of Russian opposition figures and dissidents changed everything.
Relations were strained. The last meeting of the Council was in 2019. After that
date, Russia did not respond to calls by NATO to hold a meeting.
NATO-Russia relations took a further dive when NATO cancelled the accreditation
of several Russian diplomats for alleged involvement in spywork. Russia
responded by suspending its mission to NATO and shutting down the Alliance's
liaison mission as well as its information office in Moscow.
NATO Ministers’ Riga meeting became dominated by recent escalation between
Russia and Ukraine relations, stemming from extensive Russian military build-up
near Ukraine. NATO Ministers stated solidarity with Ukraine and warned Russia
that any aggression against it, would have serious political and economic
implications.
Russia rejected these claims. Putin came up with Russia’s threat perceptions and
emphasized his country’s concern about NATO’s eastward expansion and deployment
of weapons close to its borders.
NATO has its hands full with a variety of issues and challenges both from within
and outside and on many fronts.
One other issue which marked the Ministers meeting was the evaluation which had
to be done as a result of the recent tragic developments in Afghanistan. The
result of the evaluation can be summarized as follows: even though military wise
there were some successes, as a whole and with special reference to nation
building, NATO was not well prepared and goals were not realistic. In case there
is a similar happening in the future, things must be done in a different way,
and a lot will have to be accomplished between now and the Summit in Madrid next
year.
Putin Needs a Real Casus Belli to Invade Ukraine
Leonid Bershidsky/Bloomberg/December, 03/2021
When Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, General Kyrylo Budanov, names
specific dates for a Russian march on his country — late January or early
February — it’s hard to believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will stick to
Budanov’s schedule as if it were embossed on an RSVP card. As I’ve argued
earlier, such action would jeopardize a major part of Putin’s grand natural gas
pipeline project, which is important to his legacy. And yet an all-out war in
Ukraine is far from impossible.
Putin’s previous attacks on Ukraine followed two distinct scenarios. The Crimea
annexation was a dazzlingly sudden grab. The Russian military involvement in
Eastern Ukraine was, by contrast, reactive and perhaps even somewhat reluctant.
It followed an attempt by armed groups of Russian nationalists with some initial
backing from hawks in Putin’s own entourage to break the region away from
Ukraine; after Ukrainian forces pushed back with surprising panache, Russian
troops were sent in to save the secessionists.
It would be reasonable to assume that Putin is weighing some kind of sudden
onslaught scenario in case his “red line” in relation to Ukraine is crossed. On
Nov. 30, he laid down the “red line” explicitly at an investment forum: If some
kind of strike capabilities emerge in Ukraine, flight time to Moscow will be
seven to ten minutes, and with the deployment of hypersonic weapons it goes down
to five minutes.
In other words, what Putin fears is US missile deployment in Ukraine, along the
lines of the anti-missile defenses placed in Eastern European member states of
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. As Fyodor Lukyanov, the most
clear-sighted of the Kremlin’s foreign policy explainers, wrote recently in the
journal he edits, Russia in Global Affairs, Ukraine wouldn’t even need to join
NATO to become a de facto US military beachhead. Lukyanov’s suggestion was that
Russia is seeking some kind of neutrality, or “Finlandization,” guarantee for
Ukraine — but, since it’s unclear what form such a guarantee could take, it’s
safe to assume Russia is preparing to use military force if Putin finds his “red
line” is about to be crossed.
It’s just as safe to assume that such preemptive action will not be semaphored
beforehand, and that its very threat is meant to be effective, forcing Ukrainian
leaders to think twice before expanding their military cooperation with the US
That Putin is making the threat explicit is part of the game.
In the meantime, Putin knows that if he attacks without a clear provocation, or
on the pretext of some artificially created incident, he stands to lose more
than he gains. In addition to the obvious costs of war, such a move would bring
back the currently eroded resolve of European countries to back up any
US-initiated sanctions on Russia, including bans on hydrocarbon exports, bond
issuance and cross-border financial operations. With a new German government
promising to pursue a much more activist foreign policy, Russia would find it
impossible to avoid heavy economic punishment. Increasingly dependent on China,
it would have no one else to turn to and would thus face a threat to its
sovereignty. The only potential winner in such a situation would be the US,
which would be able to weaken its adversary and strengthen its alliances. The US
would likely then step up its military presence in any part of Ukraine that
Russia cannot win or hold, as well as in other neighboring countries — the worst
possible outcome for Putin.
Attacking in response to real, provable hostile action, however, likely would
not entail such consequences, even in a post-truth world where any event can be
spun as its exact opposite. The 2008 Georgian-Russian war provides a relevant
example.
An independent international fact-finding mission set up by the European Union
in 2008 and headed by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini determined that Georgia
started the conflict by shelling the city of Tskhinvali in breakaway South
Ossetia. A Georgian general declared early on, the mission’s report pointed out,
that his country was moving to retake its lost territory, and though President
Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration immediately took a different line — that it
was acting to preempt a Russian aggression — those first words were never quite
erased.
Though the mission’s report also called the Russian response — a lightning-fast
attack that stopped just short of the Georgian capital, Tbilisi —
disproportionate, no real international consequences followed for Russia, and a
few years later, a far more cautious Georgian government took and held control
of the country. This precedent establishes Putin’s best-case scenario in
relation to Ukraine. As Lukyanov wrote in his commentary, “The gambit that led
to the 2008 war between Russia and Georgia could well be replicated.” Although
he made it sound as a warning to Ukraine against overestimating Western support
as Saakashvili did, it’s likely the Kremlin’s hope. If it can be established
with iron-clad clarity, as in the Tagliavini report, and not just broadcast on
the RT propaganda channel, that Russian military action is responsive in nature,
US threats of “serious consequences” could well turn out to be empty; without a
credible pretext, as when Russia used the fig leaf of deniability in Eastern
Ukraine in 2015, tougher sanctions are inevitable. An attack that most outsiders
will see as unprovoked is the last resort for Putin.
The situation along the contact line between the Russian-backed separatists and
Ukrainian forces heated up in November, with observers from the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe reporting a median of 403 ceasefire
violations a day in the Donetsk region, up from 218 in October. The Kremlin may
well be looking for a Ukrainian attack on the separatists that could be sold as
a casus belli; then the troops it has been massing on Ukraine’s borders to
maintain the impression that it’s serious about its “red line” could jump into
action. Clearly, however, no such pretext has been found. Not even Ukraine’s
highly publicized use of an armed drone against the separatists in late October
was deemed convincing enough as a reason for a counterstrike.
The Biden administration, which has been talking up the threat of a Russian
invasion, apparently is ready to start erecting new fences around Russia if it
strikes unprovoked — but it has never promised any military backstop for
Ukraine. And for Putin to attack without inordinately painful consequences, a
strong provocation is a must. As many times before in its post-2014 history,
Ukraine finds itself between a rock and a hard place. It falls to the Ukrainian
authorities to keep their country from suffering further devastation — no one
else can. Can President Volodymyr Zelenskiy keep calm enough to avoid the worst?
Unclear. On Nov. 26, he gave a wild press conference, alleging that a coup would
be staged against him on Dec. 1 or Dec. 2 — Ukrainian officials do have a
penchant for pinpointing doomsday scenarios on the calendar — and that the
wealthiest Ukrainian, billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, was being approached to back
this coup.
Yet even in Zelenskiy’s inexperienced and scandal-prone administration, the
survival instinct is likely strong enough to avoid Saakashvili’s ruinous
example. Ukraine, after all, would unquestionably be the worst off in case of a
Russian attack. And after his bruising experiences with the previous US
administration, Zelenskiy — unlike Saakashvili — won’t overestimate Western
support. His realism offers the best hope that, barring some kind of
catastrophic accident, Ukraine will keep trying to wait out Putin, and Putin
will keep trying to keep NATO out of Ukraine by threats rather than by sending
in tanks and bombers.
Biden’s Doppelganger for the UN
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2021
What do India, Iraq and the Solomon Islands have in a common?
The answer is that US President Joe Biden has certified all three as
“democracies” along with 106 other countries, by inviting them to a virtual
“democratic” world summit on 9 and 10 December.
Biden’s move reminds me of one of my favorite French phrases: Furnishing the
emptiness. In this case, when you lack a foreign policy, why not pretend that
you have one by holding a world summit?
And what is the summit going to discuss?
Well, three objectives have been set: Defending against authoritarianism,
fighting corruption, and promoting human rights. Something else forgotten- may
be apple pie and motherhood?
The trouble is that the entire project, a hasty and poorly thought public
relations gimmick, is built around concepts that are never defined.
To start with what does Biden mean by democracy?
In the absence of a definition, we must assume that he means democracy is what
he says it is. In that case, democracy which is a system of government that
comes in many different forms is reduced to an ideology that, in turn, makes it
anti-democratic.
The exercise reminds us of the creation by Stalin of the COMINTERN who pretended
that he and he alone could decide who was “a true Socialist.”
But if we adopt the non-ideological definition of “democracy” as a system in
which people govern themselves or a least have a share in governing themselves
through more or less freely elected legislative, the exclusion of some countries
from the Biden list becomes puzzling. For example, how could one exclude Kuwait,
Jordan, Tunisia, Morocco, and even Algeria but include Iraq?
By excluding Turkey and Hungry, two US military allies, Biden weakens NATO’s
pretension of being “an alliance of democracies.”
Excluding Russia is also puzzling.
Vladimir Putin may be a disagreeable fellow but Russia still has a multi-party
system, holds regular elections, is less oppressive, and has fewer political
prisoners than the Philippines under President Duterte whom Biden has invited.
And, if authoritarianism is the original sin in this case, why invite so many
African “strongmen” not to mention Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil?
Chile is also invited. But just 10 days after Biden’s summit it may well end up
with Jose Antonio Cast, a political heir to Augusto Pinochet as President.
Needless to say, The People’s Republic of China is also excluded.
To be sure, by no stretch of the imagination, one could regard the one-party
state in Beijing as a democracy. However, by our count, at least 20 of the
countries invited, including the Solomon Islands mentioned above, are little
more than satellites of the People’s Republic.
At the other end of the spectrum, Biden’s invitation excludes at least 20
long-standing allies of the United States.
Biden’s proposed “summit” is a double-barrel gun.
The second barrel is supposed to bring together representatives of civil society
and the private sector to help achieve the three objectives set for the summit.
This is puzzling.
If those to be invited come from countries already certified as democracies it
makes little sense to separate them from their democratic governments. If they
are to come from excluded countries, however, their inclusion in the Biden
scheme would mean transforming them into political opposition groups.
The biggest risk in Biden’s plan is that it may lead to the re-ideologization of
international relations, something that many thoughts ended with the end of the
Cold War.
After centuries of religious wars, Europe first opted for a rule-based
international system through the Westphalian treaties which led to some three
centuries of relative peace and stability.
After the Second World War, it was to de-ideologize international relations that
the US-led the effort to create a new world order built around the United
Nations, its charter, and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. That meant
equal rights for all member nations regardless of their system of government,
religion, and dominant ideology.
The rule-based Westphalian system was further developed to become a law-based
world order which, though certainly imperfect, ushered in the end of colonialism
and prevented the resurgence of ideologies preaching the cult of race, religion,
or class war.
For decades, US leadership, even when the US itself transgressed, was a key
element in sustaining the law-based world order. Biden’s scheme may signal a
radical shift in the United States’ global leadership ambitions- from leading a
law-based world order to heading a hodgepodge of “democracies” certified by
Washington. This is why Biden and his team speak of “values”, a subjective
concept, rather than concrete laws developed over decades thanks to painfully
shaped international consensus.
Originally, trying to duplicate the United Nations was part of the program of
ultra-conservative groups in the US and Western Europe. Under President Barack
Obama it morphed into an undeclared ambition of the ultra-left.
This was why Obama went around the UN and its agencies on a number of issues,
including the “nuke deal” with the mullahs of Tehran, the human catastrophe in
Syria, and the public-relations’ hoax known as “saving the planet”.
Biden, who casts himself as centrist may be re-appropriating Obama’s strategy by
trying to create a doppelganger for the UN. A less audacious version of that was
briefly marketed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the form of an
alliance of the “Anglosphere” nations.
I have never been a fan of the United Nations as an organization and have
written about its deficiencies for decades. However, no one could deny the role
it has played and should continue to play in upholding and enforcing the idea of
law-based international relations. What is needed is the conservative approach
which means keep what is working and cut what is not through a number of reforms
that have been debated for decades to adopt the UN to the exigencies of a
changing world. The creation of a pseudo-ideological parallel organ that
excludes more than 80 UN member states, including two permanent members of the
Security Council; and some 40 percent of humanity, will not do that.
The doppelganger may furnish the emptiness for a few days and furnish a
rudderless administration with a few favorable headlines. But it will provide no
answer to problems the world faces today, problems that cannot be tackled
without the participation of all nations within the framework of a world order
based on law, not ideology.
Vienna and the United States’ Miscalculations
Mustafa Fahs/Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 03/2021
Talks of the negotiations’ failure preceded the delegations of the participant
countries’ arrival to Vienna. However, for some of the participants, the very
fact that they are returning to the negotiating table inspires optimism that the
two main sides of the negotiations, “the United States and Iran,” will reach
some kind of settlement that will form the basis of future negotiations once
intentions are gauged. But do the two sides genuinely intend to find a solution?
Can they make difficult and painful concessions, or will both sides’ domestic
and foreign circumstances derail the opportunity presented by the seventh round
of talks in Vienna?
On the Iranian side, the negotiating team’s cohesion is obvious. And, this time,
it has all the pillars of the regime’s backing, with Tehran having set a series
of objectives that it wants to achieve. In addition, Iranian decision-makers
have already planned for the prospect of their negotiating team coming back from
Vienna empty-handed. On the other hand, the US team seems confused. This
confusion stems from the divergences within the administration on how to deal
with Iran in general and the nuclear deal in particular. A wider schism splits
the institutions of government in the US. This is particularly evident when we
look at Congress, which is also split. On the one hand, there are the
Republicans, who oppose any new deal or lifting sanctions. One the other, we
have the Democrats, who are caught between the need to get the Iranian question
out of the way and the Biden Administration’s lack of a strategic vision. That
has left some of them apprehensive about any step taken by the Biden
administration that could impact the midterm elections, as Trump’s
administration had succeeded in turning the negotiations with Iran into a major
public opinion issue domestically.
In practice, it could be said that the American side is behind the negotiation’s
dysfunction. It seeks to conclude a piecemeal agreement with Tehran that sets
the groundwork for a gradual return to the initial agreement, regardless of the
implications on the Middle East’s collective security. However, a faction within
the Biden administration seeks to grant Tehran major concessions under the
pretext of containing its nuclear weapons program, promoting Republican Senator
Bill Hagerty to tweet that “[It is] outrageous that Rob Malley, Biden’s
negotiator, wants to go beyond JCPOA & bribe Iranian regime with total lifting
of sanctions.”Before its delegation arrived in Vienna, the Iranian leadership
raised the bar, reiterating the goal it seeks to achieve through this round, the
lifting of sanctions. It will thus not go along with the principle of one step
for another and will not present any concessions regarding its nuclear program
besides those that had been part of the previous deal. Despite its impossible
demands, Tehran, given the state of its economy and its citizens’ living
conditions, cannot hide its desire to reach a deal that meets some of its terms.
Nonetheless, the nature of Iran's regime makes backing down under pressure to
internal liabilities and foreign pressure impossible. The Iranian
decision-makers, despite their pressing need for the benefits that the deal-
even if it is preliminary- would present, do not find making significant
concessions to be a viable option. That pushes us to believe that this round
will end like those that preceded it and that Iran will continue to insist on
taking more than the other side can give. Indeed, Tehran does not seem prepared
to return to full compliance with the nuclear deal before the sanctions imposed
on it are lifted.
Moreover, the Iranian negotiators want assurances from the US administration
that its decision to lift sanctions will be taken quickly. For Tehran, swift and
full compliance with the deal must be met with US commitments to swiftly lift
sanctions and guarantees that it will not withdraw from the agreement.
Despite the negotiations’ difficulty and the apprehensions around the details,
Tehran did not stop blackmailing the countries of the P5+1 group. The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday that Iran had started
the process of enriching uranium to up to 20 percent purity, using advanced
centrifuges, at the Fordow facility built inside a mountain. This plan
demonstrates the extent of Iran’s defiance and the United States’ reversal of
its position. And so, the simplified view adopted by some pillars of the Biden
administration regarding the containment of Iran’s nuclear activity could leave
the previous deal, with all the harm that would imply for the region,
reinstated.
PGM: Iran’s greatest threat to Israel after nuclear program
Jacob Nagel and Jonathan Schanzer/The Jerusalem Post/December 02/2021
It is by now well established that most of those incidents in Syria are Israeli
strikes targeting Iranian personnel or the transfer of precision-guided
munitions, PGMs.
Defense Minister Benny Gantz shocked Israelis last week when he revealed details
of a 2018 security incident during which an Iranian drone had crossed into
Israeli airspace. The Israelis downed the drone, which originated at the T4 Air
Base in Syria. This much was known. But Gantz revealed that the drone was
actually intended to deliver explosives to terrorist groups in the West Bank.
The episode was only one among many on the Syrian-Israeli border in recent
years. The Israelis have worked overtime to battle Iranian efforts to exploit
the fog of war to smuggle a wide variety of advanced weapons to terrorist
groups, primarily Hezbollah in Lebanon, but apparently other groups and
jurisdictions, too.In fact, the number of Israeli operations, according to
foreign press reports, has increased recently. Not a week goes by without
reports of something going “boom” in Syria. It is by now well established that
most of those incidents are Israeli strikes targeting Iranian personnel or the
transfer of precision-guided munitions, PGMs.
The Israelis call this the “war between wars” campaign. It is a concerted and
sustained effort, launched in 2012, to enforce Israel’s red lines in war-torn
Syria. Jerusalem has made it clear that it will not allow Iranian personnel or
Iran’s terrorist proxies to operate on Syrian soil. This includes Hezbollah, but
also a significant number of Shi’ite militias that answer to their paymasters in
Tehran.
Israel also insists that Syria cannot become a transshipment point for what are
often euphemistically described as “game-changing weapons.” More often than not,
the Israelis are referring to PGMs, PGM parts, production machines or the
personnel responsible for transferring knowledge of PGM production.
With Iran’s help, Hezbollah has been manufacturing PGMs or retrofitting older,
guided rockets to convert them to PGMs – all with the goal of targeting Israel.
Reports suggest that they have successfully produced several dozen of these
deadly munitions, or even several hundred. But they have paid a heavy price. The
casualties continue to mount, and the number of shipments that have been
destroyed are by now in the thousands.
Israeli officials at first kept quiet about their war between wars for fear of
stoking a wider conflict. But beginning in 2019, they have lifted the veil on
these activities. Political and military officials alike have revealed more and
more about the thousands of targets that Israel has destroyed in Syria over the
last few years. The message appears to be tailored to one particular audience:
the regime in Iran. Regime officials have repeatedly expressed their goal of
hastening Israel’s demise. Such rhetoric has been constant since the Islamic
Revolution of 1979. But in 2009, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei began directing his
lieutenants to invest heavily in the research and development of PGMs with the
understanding that these weapons would truly be “game changers.” They would
enable the regime or its proxies to strike Israeli targets within 20 feet of
their intended mark. They would also potentially be able to outmaneuver Israel’s
advanced air defenses. The goal would be to hit targets that would have a
meaningful impact on Israeli security.
Accordingly, the IDF has declared the PGM threat to be the country’s second most
dire, subordinate only to the Iranian nuclear program. Increasingly, Israel sees
these two programs as interconnected. They are part of a long-term Iranian plan.
Both must be stopped for Israel to live in peace. The shadow operations against
both programs continue apace.
Interestingly, the Russians, who operate anti-aircraft weapons in Syria with the
permission of the ruling regime, are not complaining about the ongoing Israeli
strikes. Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and current Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett have invested considerable time and effort in convincing Russian
President Vladimir Putin and his advisers that it is in Russia’s national
interest to oust Iran from Syria. The Russians are open to the idea. After all,
Israel has made it clear to Putin that as long as the PGM threat continues, and
as long as Iran violates Israel’s “red lines,” the strikes will continue.
Without stability in Syria, the Russian investments there will be at risk. Putin
understands this reality. Whether he is willing to take steps to edge Iran out
of the country remains to be seen.
The regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad itself, which would not be in power
were it not for Iranian intervention in the country’s civil war, is also quietly
cheering on the Israeli strikes. The Iranians have simply outstayed their
welcome in Syria, violating the sovereignty of an allied nation to use it as a
jurisdiction for smuggling these deadly weapons.
It is for this reason that Syria has started to engage in diplomacy with Arab
states, led by the United Arab Emirates, to come in from the cold. But in order
for that to happen, Assad must break from Iran. This is easier said than done.
Among other reasons, the Arab states are also increasingly concerned over how
the Iranian PGM project threatens Lebanon. The country is on the verge of
political and economic collapse. Should the PGM smuggling to Hezbollah continue,
Israel may have no choice but to destroy them. This could start a war that would
devastate the country that was once considered a bastion of liberalism and
wealth in the Middle East.
All of this is now occurring with the backdrop of renewed nuclear negotiations
between Iran and world powers. Israel would like nothing more than to see an
agreement that truly shuts down Iran’s drive for a nuclear weapon. But the Biden
administration’s negotiations are not talking about such a comprehensive deal.
Nor are they talking about ending the PGM program as part of these talks. This
leaves Israel with no choice but to continue to wage its war between wars.
Washington understands Israel’s position. The White House is quietly ignoring
the shadow campaign, while insisting that Iran could still return to
negotiations and quickly evolve into a responsible stakeholder in the Middle
East. This means that Israel has a window, perhaps a closing window, to deal
with the PGM threat. It can do so with the tacit approval of Washington and with
the almost-open endorsement of the Russians and the Syrians.
The war between wars campaign has been heating up for years. But it is now
reaching new levels of intensity. Israel sees this is the only way to defend
against Iran’s threats to the region. For the first time, other actors may
quietly agree.
*Brigadier General (Res.) Professor Jacob Nagel is a former Israeli acting
national security adviser. He is now a visiting professor at the Aerospace
Faculty of the Technion and a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies. Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president at FDD, a former
terrorism finance analyst at the United States Department of the Treasury, and
author of the new book Gaza Conflict 2021: Hamas, Israel and Eleven Days of War.
Follow Jon on Twitter @JSchanzer. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan
research institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
World must support Iranians when they rise up against the
regime
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 03/2021
The increasing frustration and discontent among the Iranian people over the
theocratic establishment in their country is a major concern for the ruling
clerics, who fear that another nationwide uprising will threaten their hold on
power.
Lately, many people in the province of Isfahan have risen up against the regime.
Tens of thousands have joined farmers and poured into the streets criticizing
government officials over water shortages.
People were heard chanting: “The people of Isfahan will rather die than give in
to disgrace,” “Zayandeh Rud (river) is our undeniable right,” and “We will not
go home until we get our water back.”
The regime does not appear to have a practical solution for the water shortages
as it continues to use a significant portion of the nation’s water resources on
government projects. In the face of the protests, the minister of energy
admitted: “We are not in a position to provide their water needs.”
Instead, the regime resorted to its modus operandi of employing brute force to
crack down on protesters. Police and security forces used tear gas and batons
and fired shotguns at them, which resulted in hundreds of people being injured,
while there were also many arrests. Mohammad-Reza Mir-Heidari, the chief of
Isfahan’s police, also threatened to deal forcefully with protesters.
It is important to recall that the regime deployed the same strategy during
previous uprisings. In the final days of 2017, protests broke out in Iran’s
second-most-populous city, Mashhad, and immediately spread to dozens of others,
with democratic change the rallying cry.
Another uprising in November 2019 presented the clerical regime with an even
greater challenge. Terrified by the breadth and organized nature of these
uprisings, authorities opened fire on crowds, killing approximately 1,500
people.
The protests are not limited to farmers concerned about water shortages. In
recent weeks, retirees and pensioners have staged more than a dozen protests,
each spanning multiple cities. The government has offered little or no response
to their demands for an economic policy that shrinks the gap between their
stagnant incomes and the rising cost of living. As a result, the most recent of
these protests adopted slogans such as: “We have seen no justice; we will not
vote anymore.”
Similar slogans were adopted during protests that focused attention on the
regime’s theft of people’s money invested in the stock market. For those who
have lost their savings and joined the massed ranks of impoverished Iranians, it
is clear that the regime’s graft permeates the political hierarchy and no one
has any interest in reforming the system.
Many people in Iran are indeed suffering financially. For the past 10 years, the
unemployment rate in the country has been in the double digits. Although Iran
has an educated youth population, which makes up more than 60 percent of the
total population, almost 30 percent of them are without jobs. More than 40
percent of the population, approximately 32 million citizens, live below the
poverty line.
People are also frustrated with the regime because of its egregious human rights
record. Human rights activists, defenders and lawyers have played an important
role in disclosing the violations taking place in the country.
The Iranian regime remains one of the worst abusers of human rights in the
world. The situation continues to worsen under the leadership of President
Ebrahim Raisi, who is known as the “Butcher of Tehran.” According to the latest
report by international human rights watchdog Amnesty International, Tehran
ranks top in the world in terms of the number of executions per capita.
More importantly, the political nature of the dissatisfaction with the regime
should not be disregarded. People are robustly opposing the ruling clerics’
authoritarianism and despotism. That is why many risk their lives by chanting
“Death to (Supreme Leader Ali) Khamenei,” a crime punishable with the death
penalty. Other common chants include “Shame on you Khamenei, step down from
power” and “Death to the dictator.”
It is clear that the regime’s graft permeates the political hierarchy and no one
has any interest in reforming the system.
People have also been seen during previous protests risking their lives by
tearing down banners for Iran’s previous and current supreme leaders, Ayatollahs
Khomeini and Khamenei.
In addition, many people appear to vehemently stand against the regime’s foreign
policies, as the following chants have become popular in the country: “Forget
about Palestine, forget about Gaza, think about us,” “Death to Hezbollah,” and
“Leave Syria alone, think about us instead.”
Western policymakers, and the entire international community, should make it
clear that they support any effort by the Iranian people to push back against
state repression and advocate for democracy. Only the immediate and overwhelming
threat of a coordinated international response can guarantee that the bloodshed
from future uprisings will not be worse than that which occurred during November
2019.
If international policymakers offer no such threat, they will be turning their
backs on the Iranian people, thereby solidifying the position of a nuclear-keen
theocratic dictatorship that is desperately struggling to find a lifeline.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist.
Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh