English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 03/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december03.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Those who are well have no need of a physician, but those who are sick; I have
come to call not the righteous but sinners to repentance
Saint Luke 05/27-32/:”After this Jesus went out and saw a
tax-collector named Levi, sitting at the tax booth; and he said to him, ‘Follow
me.’And he got up, left everything, and followed him. Then Levi gave a great
banquet for him in his house; and there was a large crowd of tax-collectors and
others sitting at the table with them. The Pharisees and their scribes were
complaining to his disciples, saying, ‘Why do you eat and drink with
tax-collectors and sinners?’Jesus answered, ‘Those who are well have no need of
a physician, but those who are sick; I have come to call not the righteous but
sinners to repentance.’”
Question: “Should a Christian celebrate holidays?”
GotQuestions.org?/December 02, 2022
Answer: The Bible nowhere instructs Christians to celebrate holidays. Days such
as Thanksgiving, Valentine’s Day, Memorial Day, Labor Day, Independence Day,
birthdays, anniversaries, etc., are not mentioned in Scripture. The Bible does
not even mandate Christmas or Easter observances. The lack of any biblical
command or precedent regarding the celebration of modern holidays has led some
to refrain from observing these days, even those holidays that are considered
Christian.
The only holidays mentioned in Scripture are the Jewish feast days: Passover
(Mark 14:12), Unleavened Bread (Leviticus 23:6), Firstfruits (Leviticus 23:10; 1
Corinthians 15:20), Pentecost (Acts 2:1), Trumpets (Leviticus 23:24), the Day of
Atonement (Leviticus 23:27), and Tabernacles (Leviticus 23:34). Many scholars
believe the feast mentioned in John 5:1 is Purim, although it is unnamed. The
Old Testament also mentions the New Moon festival, which marked the consecration
to God of each new month in the year. New Moon festivals involved sacrifices,
the blowing of trumpets (Numbers 10:10), the suspension of all labor and trade
(Nehemiah 10:31), and social or family feasts (1 Samuel 20:5). None of these
holidays, although “biblical” in the sense that they are in the Bible, are
mandated for Christians. Jesus Christ came to fulfill the law (Matthew 5:17) and
establish a new covenant (Luke 22:20), and the Jewish feasts find their
fulfillment in Him. While there is no command in the Bible for New Testament
Christians to celebrate holidays, neither is there a prohibition from doing so.
The Bible never speaks against celebrating holidays. On the basis of that alone,
it is allowable for Christians to celebrate holidays.
Some Christians avoid celebrating holidays because many of the holidays
celebrated today—even those usually labeled as “Christian” holidays—are of
questionable origin. It’s true that the Christian celebration of certain
holidays may represent a reclamation of pagan celebrations—an ancient pagan
holiday was “redeemed” for God’s glory, imbued with new meaning, and adorned
with different traditions designed to worship the Lord. Some Christians cannot
overlook the historical pagan associations of those holidays; others have come
to terms with the history and praise God for the modern opportunity to magnify
God’s name. Some holidays are more overtly compatible with Christianity than
others. Christmas and Easter, of course, are Christian celebrations of Jesus’
birth and resurrection. Thanksgiving Day promotes the biblical ideal of
gratefulness. Such holidays give Christians plenty of reason to celebrate. Other
holidays, such as Halloween and Groundhog Day, are a little more difficult to
associate with biblical beliefs.
Christians trying to decide whether or not to celebrate a holiday should
consider a few things: a) Does the holiday in any way promote false doctrine,
superstition, or immorality (Galatians 5:19–23)? b) Can we thank God for what we
observe on a holiday (1 Thessalonians 5:16–18)? c) Will celebrating the holiday
detract from our Christian testimony or witness (Philippians 2:15)? d) Is there
a way to “redeem” elements of the holiday and use them to glorify God (1
Corinthians 10:31)? In asking all these questions, we should pray to God, asking
Him for guidance (James 1:5).
In the end, the celebration of holidays is a matter of conscience. Romans
14:4–6a makes this clear: “Who are you to judge someone else’s servant? To their
own master, servants stand or fall. . . . One person considers one day more
sacred than another; another considers every day alike. Each of them should be
fully convinced in their own mind. Whoever regards one day as special does so to
the Lord.” We can draw several principles from this passage:
1) Christians may have sincere disagreements about the observance of holidays,
and such disagreements are not to be a source of conflict.
2) Each of us must give an account to God for our own actions.
3) We do not have the right to judge another believer in the matter of
celebrating holidays.
4) In any day that we consider “special,” our observance must be “to the Lord.”
For Further Study: Putting God Back in the Holidays: Celebrate Christmas,
Thanksgiving, Easter, Birthdays, and 12 Other Special Occasions with Purpose by
William & Penny Thrasher
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on December 02-03/2022
US sanctions Hezbollah accountants and weapons buyers in Lebanon
Former partner of Lebanon's central bank chief indicted in France/The move is
part of an investigation opened last June by the French judiciary to investigate
the governor's wealth
Macron tells Biden 'most work was yours' in Lebanon's border deal
Al-Rahi slams those blocking president election pending 'foreign' instructions
Doha 'adopts' US-French initiative: Aid in return for 'army chief's election'
Qassem: We won't agree to a president who would stir strife
Mikati calls for Monday cabinet session
Macron might meet with Lebanese officials during Christmas visit
Geagea says it's Berri's responsibility to stop blocs from obstructing election
sessions
Berri broaches latest developments with former Vice Speaker, meets Caretaker
Finance Minister, former Minister Aridi, Arab Contractors Union...
Army Chief meets Australian Deputy Secretary of Department of Foreign Affairs
and Trade
UN study advocates for Lebanese local authorities to be key enablers of local
economic development
Bou Habib participates in opening of Mediterranean Dialogue Conference in Rome,
meets Italian officials
Salam: I will not sign any additional charges on imported products if that
increases burden on the Lebanese
The painful Lebanese political deadlock
Lebanon's ailing health system grapples with cholera outbreak near Syrian border
On Fundamentalism of the October 17 Revolution!/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/November
02/2022
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 02-03/2022
Macron, Biden Agree on Establishing European Defense
Biden’s Offer to Talk to Putin Is a Trial Balloon to End War in Ukraine
Eyeing Iran, the U.S. and Israel Conduct Combined Air Exercise
Kremlin: Putin is Open to Talks on Ukraine
UN Nuclear Chief Says Iran Ties Need to Get Back on Track
Paris Slams Iran Foreign Ministry’s Summoning of Its Ambassador to Tehran
Tight Security Measures in Iranian Kurdistan, Raisi Pushes for Calm
Women Join Protests in Iran’s Conservative Southeast
Palestinians Welcomes UN Resolution to Commemorate Nakba amid Israeli Anger
Israeli Officer Kills Palestinian Assailant in West Bank, Police Say
Türkiye: Russia, US Failed to Clear Militia from Syria Border
Syrian rebels did not know Iraqi militant killed was IS head
Syria Resisting Russia’s Efforts to Broker Türkiye Summit, Sources Say
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 02-03/2022
China Operating Illegal Police Stations Worldwide/Judith Bergman/
Gatestone Institute/December 02, 2022
A US Confession: We Failed With Iran/Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al Awsat/November
02/2022
Islamic Socrates, or a Prankster?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 02/2022
Is Ankara Mending Fences with Cairo and Damascus?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed//Asharq
Al Awsat/November 02/2022
on December 02-03/2022
US sanctions Hezbollah accountants and weapons buyers in Lebanon
The National/December 02/2022
It is the latest in a line of financial penalties designed to thwart the
terrorist group.
The US has announced further sanctions on individuals and companies accused of
providing financial services or helping with weapons procurement for Hezbollah.
The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned two people
and two companies based in Lebanon for providing financial services to
Hezbollah, and one person involved in facilitating weapons procurement for the
group, it said in a statement. “The individuals and companies being designated
today have enabled Hezbollah's financial apparatus operating throughout
Lebanon,” said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian
Nelson. “Their public personae as financial professionals and institutions is
just another way Hezbollah hides its abuse of the financial system to support
its destabilising agenda.”Those sanctioned on Thursday were Adel Mohamad Mansour,
who the US says led a Hezbollah-run quasi-financial institution; Hassan Khalil,
who is said to have worked to procure weapons on behalf of Hezbollah, and Naser
Hassan Neser, who worked with an entity that provided financial services to the
group. The two companies sanctioned on Thursday for providing financial services
to Hezbollah were named Al Khobara and Auditors for Accounting and Auditing,
known simply as Auditors. The company is run by Mr Mansour and the US said it
provided services to and operates out of the building of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a
charity-licensed banking institution formerly run by Mr Mansour and previously
sanctioned by the US for being a Hezbollah front. “Other senior officials at Al
Khobara include US-designated senior Hezbollah official Hussein Al Shami, who
previously headed AQAH and another US-designated Hezbollah financial
institution, Bayt Al Mal, as well as Ahmad Yazbeck, who was designated in May
2021 for acting for or on behalf of AQAH,” the US said. The US said Auditors was
designated as it is owned, controlled or directed by Ibrahim Baher, who was
designated in May 2021 for being a member of Hezbollah and the head of its
central finance unit. Mr Neser worked in Auditors alongside Mr Baher. Founded in
1982 by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and classified by the US and
other Western countries as a “terrorist organisation,” Hezbollah is a powerful
group in Lebanon because of a heavily armed militia that fought several wars
with Israel. It grew stronger after joining the war in Syria in 2012 in support
of President Bashar Al Assad. OFAC regulations generally prohibit all dealings
by “US persons” or within the US that involve any property or interests in
property of designated entities. Last month, the US issued sanctions against an
international oil smuggling network it said supports Hezbollah and Iran's Quds
Force, targeting dozens of people, companies and tankers.
Former partner of Lebanon's central bank
chief indicted in France/The move is part of an investigation opened last June
by the French judiciary to investigate the governor's wealth
Nada Atallah/The National/December 02/2022
Anna Kosakova, 46, a former partner of the governor of Lebanon's central bank,
is under formal investigation in France for criminal conspiracy, organised money
laundering, and aggravated tax fraud laundering, French investigative journal
Mediapart reported on Thursday. The indictment was confirmed to The National by
an informed sourcey. "This kind of decision usually does not stay isolated:
other indictments will follow," the source said. The French Financial
Prosecutor’s Office said it does not comment on ongoing cases. Antigraft judge
Aude Buresi issued the decision on July 14 as part of her investigation into
Riad Salameh’s fortune and alleged embezzlement of public funds opened after two
complaints filed by anti-corruption organisations. Ms Kosakova, a Ukrainian
woman who lives in France and has a daughter with the central bank governor, is
the first person to be prosecuted in the case. Under French law, an indictment
means that there is serious evidence that the person under investigation has
participated in a crime or an offence: it is not a judgment, and the presumption
of innocence applies. Once praised as the man who kept Lebanon’s banking sector
thriving, Mr Salameh now faces investigations for alleged money laundering in
several European countries.After a joint investigation team was set up, the EU's
Hague-based criminal justice agency last March froze €120 million ($124.3
million) worth of assets belonging to Mr Salameh and members of his family. If
proven guilty, Mr Salameh faces up to 10 years in prison and the confiscation of
his assets in Europe.
More than $330 million allegedly embezzled
The Swiss attorney general’s office opened the first criminal inquiry targeting
Mr Salameh in October 2020. The prosecutor suspects Mr Salameh of embezzling
about $330 million in public funds through Forry Associates, a company
registered in the Virgin Islands, whose owner is the governor’s brother, Raja
Salameh. Under a brokerage contract signed in 2002, commercial banks paid
commissions to Forry when they bought certificates of deposit from the central
bank, an investment instrument offered to banks. While central banks sometimes
use intermediaries to sell their financial products, the total opacity of this
contract raised suspicions among Lebanese financiers. The exact services
provided by Forry are still unclear. Swiss prosecutors found that most of the
commissions were transferred to Raja Salameh’s account in Switzerland, then
partly wired to his accounts in five Lebanese banks.
Mediapart reported that Ms Kosakova is one of the direct beneficiaries of
Forry's commissions through Forri (for First Overseas Relation for Realty and
Investment Ltd), a company she created in Cyprus in 2004, according to the
country's trade register. The French judiciary is trying to determine if the
profits from the alleged embezzlement of public funds were channelled through
investments in France, where Mr Salameh's entourage owns important real estate
properties. The real estate investment company run by Ms Kosakova since 2015,
SCI ZEL, has acquired real estate in Paris worth at least €14.3 million,
according to deeds of sale seen by The National. This includes offices on the
upmarket avenue des Champs-Elysee worth €8.7 million and two apartments in
Paris’s 16th arrondissement on Avenue Georges-Mandel, where Ms Kosakova lives.
SCI ZEL was initially managed by tRaja Salameh before he left the management and
transferred his 1 per cent share to Ms Kosakova in 2015. BET SA, an asset
management company established in Luxembourg in 2007, whose sole shareholder is
Ms Kosakova, owns the 99 per cent of remaining shares. In 2020, she transferred
the bare ownership to her son while keeping the right of usufruct, which is the
right to benefit from the company. According to Mediapart, the French judiciary
has traced an alleged money laundering scheme from the Swiss account of Forry to
SCI ZEL through numerous banking operations between BET SA, Forry, and Raja
Salameh's accounts in Switzerland. The Central Bank spokesman did not reply to a
request for comment. Riad Salameh has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing. He said
that his wealth, which he estimates at $23 million, has been lawfully acquired
and comes from investments he made while working at Merrill Lynch as a banker,
before becoming the central bank governor in 1993.
Macron tells Biden 'most work was yours' in Lebanon's
border deal
Agence France Presse/Friday 02 December, 2022
"Dear Joe, you elegantly thanked France for the role we played in the historical
agreement between Israel and Lebanon," French President Emmanuel Macron said,
referring to a recent deal to demarcate the sea border between the two
countries. "Let me be honest: I think most of the work was yours." But U.S.
Presiedent Joe Biden batted the same compliment back yet again."Well, thank you
Emmanuel. I began to refer to you in private as my 'closer,' of that deal with
Lebanon and Israel. We did negotiate, but we needed a closer to get the job
done, and you did it." The leaders, with aides, had met on Thursday for about
three hours after taking part in a formal ceremony with hundreds of people
gathered on the South Lawn on a sunny, chilly morning. There was a 21-gun salute
and review of troops, and ushers distributed small French and American flags to
the guests. The state visit marked a return of a White House tradition of
honoring close foreign allies that dates back to Ulysses S. Grant's presidency.
Al-Rahi slams those blocking president election pending
'foreign' instructions
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi has called on those casting blank votes in
the presidential election sessions to declare the name of their candidate. “Who
is your candidate? Why don’t you declare his name and vote for him? If there are
names you can negotiate on you would call for negotiations,” al-Rahi said in an
interview from Rome with Radio Free Lebanon. “Why are you doing this only to the
Maronite Christian president, whereas the parliament speaker gets elected in one
session and the premier gets designated immediately after the parliamentary
consultations, as if you are saying that you can without a president,” the
patriarch added.“If you are keen on the (National) Pact, where is the Christian
element while you are blocking the president’s election and where is the
separation of powers? This is all against the constitution and tyranny and
oppression against Lebanon,” al-Rahi decried. Responding to a question, the
patriarch said: “If they were able to resolve the presidential issue
domestically, they would have elected a president, and this indicates, week
after week, that they are awaiting the keyword from abroad, unfortunately.”“The
Christian majority has proposed a candidate for the presidency, so let others
propose a name instead of saying that Christians have not agreed yet. Until now,
it seems that there is no consensus over a candidate pending foreign
instructions… but the Lebanese officials must hold consultations and vote,
seeing as this is how the pope and the patriarch get elected,” al-Rahi said.
“Should we seek an agreement prior to election, we will have neither a pope nor
a patriarch,” the patriarch added. “I say that Lebanon has the right to have a
president and no one has the right to block this election, because the absence
of a president means that there is a body without a head and also stands for the
disintegration of the state,” al-Rahi went on to say.
Doha 'adopts' US-French initiative: Aid in return for 'army
chief's election'
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
Free Patriotic Movement leader Jebran Bassil and other politicians have been
informed, in meetings inside and outside Lebanon, that the major capitals are
willing to offer guarantees to all political forces should they endorse the
presidential nomination of Army chief General Joseph Aoun, a media report said
on Friday. “The Qataris are not distant from this choice and a top official in
Doha has openly said this to Lebanese visitors, reiterating that his country is
willing to strongly contribute to the Lebanon aid program should there be
consensus over the army chief with U.S. and French blessing and a direct cover
from the Maronite patriarchate,” al-Akhbar newspaper reported. Separately, the
daily said that Riyadh’s stance is still ambiguous but the indications point
that it wants a “comprehensive settlement.”“The Saudis have not endorsed
Suleiman Franjieh but their stance was not negative, and they prefer that the
coming premier be ex-ambassador Nawwaf Salam, something that Paris is opposing
seeing as it prefers the re-designation of (caretaker) PM Najib Mikati,” al-Akhbar
added.
Qassem: We won't agree to a president who would stir strife
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
Hezbollah deputy chief Sheikh Naim Qassem on Friday stressed that the country’s
next president must have two main concerns: “rescuing the country economically
and cooperation with all parties.”“As for the controversial political issues,
they should be referred to a calm dialogue, including the defense strategy,”
Qassem tweeted. He added: “We will not agree to a president who would stir
strife and who wouldn’t appreciate the blessing of liberation and the martyrs’
blood.”We will not agree to a president who would “serve the American-Israeli
scheme,” Hezbollah number two emphasized. “Say what you want about us but we
will not surrender Lebanon to the foreigners,” Qassem went on to say.
Mikati calls for Monday cabinet session
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Friday officially invited ministers to
hold a session for the caretaker cabinet at 11am Monday. “There is some sort of
a tacit agreement between Mikati, the Shiite Duo and the parties represented in
the government – except for the Free Patriotic Movement -- that no cabinet
sessions shall be held unless it is extremely necessary, and this is what the
current situation has actually reached,” sources close to Mikati had told al-Joumhouria
newspaper. The session will have "an emergency agenda, topped by the
hospitalization situations, in terms of… implementing the fee increases
stipulated in the state budget, seeing as the Finance Ministry has said that it
will not be able to dispense these overdue payments without a decree,” the
sources added. The agenda will meanwhile be “non-controversial” so that the
political parties can agree on, the sources went on to say. Noting that the call
for the session “will be embarrassing to the Free Patriotic Movement’s ministers
before anyone else,” the sources revealed that some of these ministers “have
acknowledged the necessity to hold sessions, especially that the agenda is
related to people’s security.”
Macron might meet with Lebanese officials during Christmas
visit
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
The approach of the Washington summit between the U.S. and French presidents
regarding the situation in Lebanon is considered “a step in the right direction,
but it does not exempt the Lebanese of the responsibility of holding a dialogue
or reaching an understanding over a speedy election of a new president,” highly
informed political sources said. U.S. President Joe Biden thanked French
President Emmanuel Macron for Paris’ assistance in reaching the agreement over
the demarcation of the Lebanon-Israel sea border, which the U.S. leader
described as “historic,” sources informed on the summit told al-Liwaa newspaper
in remarks published Friday. According to al-Hurra television, Biden and Macron
stressed their determination to continue their joint efforts to urge Lebanon's
leaders to "elect a president and carry on with drastic reforms."Responding to a
question from the daily, a Lebanese diplomatic source did not rule out that
Macron might meet with Lebanese officials during a visit to inspect his
country’s troops in south Lebanon “between Christmas and New Year’s Eve.”The
French president will be in the Middle East for a regional summit that will be
held in Amman this month.
Geagea says it's Berri's responsibility to stop blocs from obstructing election
sessions
Naharnet/Friday 02 December, 2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea has called Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to
ask the blocs who are hindering the presidential election to stop the
obstruction, before Thursday's session. "From now on we cannot tolerate any more
delays," Geagea said. He added that exiting the session before the second round
is no longer an acquired right, accusing "the Axis of Defiance" of making of it
a habit that has persisted for three months and for eight sessions. LF lawmaker
Antoine Habchi had said Thursday, before an eighth session that failed to elect
a new president, that Parliament is "not shouldering its responsibilities",
which upset Berri. In all eight sessions, pro-Hezbollah lawmakers would leave
the session before the second round, causing an intentional lack of quorum. In
the first round, they would cast blank ballots, which is also criticized by
their opponents who accuse them of obstruction and ask them to name their
candidate. Hezbollah and its allies still haven't agreed on a name for the next
president and are calling for consultations, dialogue, and a consensual
president. They consider that naming a candidate who cannot become a president
is a waste of time and "will not lead to any results."
Berri broaches latest developments with former Vice
Speaker, meets Caretaker Finance Minister, former Minister Aridi, Arab
Contractors Union...
NNA/Friday 02 December, 2022
House Speaker Nabih Berri, on Friday received at the Second Presidency in Ain
El-Tineh, former Vice Speaker, Elie Ferzli, with whom he discussed the current
general situation and the latest political developments, especially the
presidential elections. On emerging, Ferzli indicated that consensus is a
fundamental issue in yielding a Lebanese president of the republic, stressing
that this can only happen through dialogue among the various parliamentary
blocs. Speaker Berri also met with former Minister Ghazi Al-Aridi, over the
latest political developments in the country. Aridi left Ain El-Tineh without
making a statement.
Berri also received a delegation representing the "Union of Arab Contractors",
led by Union head, Ali Sanafi. Discussions reportedly touched on relevant
syndical affairs. This afternoon, Berri met with Caretaker Minister of Finance,
Dr. Youssef Khalil.
Among Speaker Berri’s itinerant visitors for today had been Dr. Marwan Iskandar.
Army Chief meets Australian Deputy Secretary of Department
of Foreign Affairs and Trade
NNA/Friday 02 December, 2022
Lebanese Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Friday received at his Yarzeh
office, the Deputy Secretary of the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade, Michelle Chan, accompanied by Australian Ambassador to Lebanon, Andrew
Barnes. Discussions reportedly touched on the bilateral relations between the
armies of both countries.
UN study advocates for Lebanese local authorities to be key
enablers of local economic development
NNA/Friday 02 December, 2022
This week, in-depth studies on local economic development results and outcomes
were presented to the Urban Community Al-Fayhaa, the Federation of
Municipalities of the Northern and Coastal Matn and the Union of Tyre
Municipalities, municipalities, local community, and private sector during a
series of three launching events in the targeted regions. This study is within
the framework of the Municipal Empowerment and Resilience Programme(MERP) and in
line with its efforts to support local authorities in addressing current
socio-economic and basic service challenges. Funded by the European Union, the
study is implemented by the United Nations Human Settlements Programme
(UN-Habitat) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Local
Economic Development (LED) study is the first and to date the only analysis of
the impact of the economic and financial crisis at the local level and its
implications for unions and municipalities. “Much information, research and
analysis exist at the national level in terms of economic development. Yet, it
is absolutely imperative to also understand where we are in terms of economic
development at the local level”, said Taina Christiansen, UN-Habitat Head of
Country Programme in Lebanon. The regional economic analysis shows that
the private sector is suffering from unhinged losses and poor productivity.
Faced with increasing costs, dwindling sales and a compromised production
capacity, a third of the three hundred seventy-five (379) firms surveyed in the
selected regions had laid off workers. 95% of the firms surveyed in the Union of
Tyre Municipalities suffers from the volatility of the Lira whereas 80% of the
sampled firms in Matnwitnessed a significant drop in sales and 42% had to lay
off part of their workers to put a break on their losses.
The studies found that there are looming health and education crises, whereby
more and more people are being barred from accessing necessary medical and
educational services. Household survey and sampled firms have specifically
expressed a demand for electricity provision and health services. The economic
crisis has left households with major losses in income and purchasing power,
malnutrition, and housing insecurity. Key figures show that 93% of Matn
households have seen their living standard affected and a significant share of
households consider themselves now to be poor while 91% of households in Tyre
region earn in Lebanese pounds and the majority of households earn below USD120
per month. In the Urban Community of Al-Fayhaa, 93% of households have adopted
negative coping strategies related to nutrition. Furthermore, 70% of the
respondents under 29 years plan to immigrate. “If emigration materializes on a
large scale, the long-term outcome for human capital in the region – and across
Lebanon more widely – would be devastating”, added Taina Christiansen.
The study calls for the protection of human capital, the support of local firms,
the strengthening of municipal systems (institutional capacity, finance,
technology), and the promotion of good territorial planning and land use
practices. The LED study is a timely opportunity for unions of municipalities,
the local private sector and the local community to better understand key
challenges threatening sustainable economic development, mobilize support and
set the foundations for an adequate response that would set the path for
recovery. “This study sheds the light on the needs and priorities and can be
considered as a roadmap for strategic planification for local economic
development”, said Engineer Dima Homsi, on behalf of Hassan Ghamaroui, president
of urban community of Al-Fayhaa. “Despite the crises and the difficulties we are
facing, the LED studyintroduced a new way of working starting with assessing
people's needs, through surveys and interactions with members of the local
community. It serves as a roadmap for projects implementation” said Antoine
Gebara, Vice President of the Federation of Municipalities of Northern and
Coastal Matn and Mayor of Jdeideh- Bauchriye- Sedd municipality.
Hassan Dbouk, President of the Union of Tyre Municipalities stressed on the
importance of working as unions: “Unions provide municipalities with mutual
benefits to share knowledge, work on larger and complementary projects and
benefit from economy of scale”.
Concluding her words, Taina Christiansen highlighted the criticality of local
economic development for the future of the country and its economic recovery and
the importance that it is done in an inclusive fashion: “We hope that the
publication of this study and the disseminations of its findings contribute to
the development of a serious local economic dialogue and process within the
unions. A dialogue and a process that are inclusive and fair, and that include
all concerned groups: official, private, informal and community actors”, said
TainaChristiansen. The research work is conducted in partnership with Union
Cities of Lebanon/ Bureau Technique des Villes Libanaises with support from the
Municipal Empowerment and Resilience Project (MERP). MERP is a joint initiative
implemented by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the United
Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat) and is funded by the European
Union through its Regional Trust Fund in Response to the Syrian Crisis “Madad
Fund”.-- UNDP
Bou Habib participates in opening of Mediterranean Dialogue
Conference in Rome, meets Italian officials
NNA/Friday 02 December, 2022
Caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Dr. Abdallah Bou Habib,
participated in the opening of the Mediterranean Dialogue Conference in Rome, in
the presence of the Presidents of Italy, Mauritania and Niger, as well as a
large number of ministers from the Mediterranean basin countries.
Moreover, Caretaker Minister Bou Habib met with Italian Defence Minister, Guido
Crosetto, who expressed his country’s full readiness to cooperate and assist the
Lebanese army and security apparatuses, especially in the south and the maritime
region.
Bou Habib also held talks with the new President of Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee of the Italian Senate, Stefania Craxi, who highlighted the importance
of the bilateral cooperation between the two countries.
Salam: I will not sign any additional charges on imported products if that
increases burden on the Lebanese
NNA/Friday 02 December, 2022
Caretaker Minister of Economy and Trade, Amin Salam, on Friday held a press
conference at his ministerial office, in which he tackled the issues of the
customs dollar and price control. During the press conference, Minister Salam
said he will not sign any decision on additional charges specifically on
imported products, if this increases the burdens on citizens. He also said that
clear lists of basic consumer products will be issued next week.
The painful Lebanese political deadlock
Gulf today/December 02/2022
The economic meltdown that Lebanon has suffered in recent times is beyond
description.
Lebanon’s political watchers know that the failure of Lebanese legislators to
choose a president after eight rounds is nothing unusual. Michel Aoun, who
stepped down at the end of October, was chosen president in 2016 after 45 rounds
and that it took two years to do so. The election of the president becomes
crucial because the president will appoint the prime minister, who of course has
to prove his majority in parliament after forming the government. But the
process of government formation cannot even begin without a president in place.
Lebanon cannot afford a political vacuum at the top at a time when the country
is going through an acute economic crisis, and important and urgent decisions of
economic reform have to be taken because the economy is broken down and the
country is in a paralytic state.
The Lebanese president is by convention a Maronite Christian even as the prime
minister is a Sunni Muslim and the speaker of the parliament is a Shia. The
deadlock is due to the fact that none of the two opposing factions – the
Iran-backed Hizbollah group nor the Sunni faction have enough numbers to elect
their candidate.And they are unwilling to reach a compromise. Hizbollah leader
Nasrallah insists that the president has to be someone who will stand up to the
United States, while Michel Moawad polled just 37 votes while 52 were spoilt
with some members of parliament choosing even Brazilian President Luiz Inacio
Lula da Silva, which showed sheer desperation. Michel Moawad is seen as being
close to Washington. The Lebanese parliament has a strength of 128 members. The
crisis in Lebanon is existential because it seems that it cannot be independent,
and that it has to be either in the Iranian camp or in that of the west, with
the general support of the neighbouring Arab states. The influence of Iran in
the internal politics of Lebanon is anathema to the Arab states in the region
because there is struggle between Iran and others, excluding Israel, who are
vying for regional leadership. So each side is not willing to yield ground to
the other.The economic meltdown that Lebanon had suffered since the catastrophic
explosion of ammonium nitrate held in a warehouse near the Beirut airport in
August 2020 had not only destroyed buildings around the site and killed and
injured hundreds, but the economic damage has been immense, running into
billions of dollars. That was the trigger for the economic collapse of Lebanon.
And with the government caught in the crisis, with the people blaming the
political leaders for the mishap and its disastrous consequences, Lebanon had
not come out of the politico-economic slump.
It is the inability of the three Lebanese factions – Sunni, Shia, Christian to
cooperate with each to save Lebanon that is the problem facing the country. The
influence of America in the affairs of Lebanon is as palpable as that of the
Iranians. Recently, America has mediated the Lebanon-Israel maritime boundary
and the gas fields found in the sea. At the same time, Israel feels that
Hizbollah poses a danger to its security. So, Lebanon’s problems are only
internal, but they spill over into the neighbourhood. Saud Arabia and others
accused Lebanon of allowing illegal drugs being smuggled into their countries.
The Lebanese government had to undertake to prevent the traffic of illegal drugs
across the border. In more ways than one, political and economic stability of
Lebanon is a concern of the neighbouring countries as well. As Lebanese
politicians struggle to elect a president to take the political process of
choosing a prime minister and a government, both the people of Lebanon and the
governments in the neighbourhood are forced to await the crucial political
outcome.
Lebanon's ailing health system grapples with cholera
outbreak near Syrian border
Jamie Prentis/The National/December 02/2022
Country distributing hundreds of thousands of oral vaccines as winter closes in.
In a freezing classroom in Arsal, an isolated Lebanese town perched 1,500 metres
above sea level near the Syrian border, one by one children line up for their
cholera vaccine — taken orally, a quick gulp down the throat. The teacher marks
their hands with a pen, and now the jacket-clad children have an extra layer of
protection against Lebanon’s first cholera outbreak in three decades. Arsal, a
largely Sunni Muslim town in the north-eastern reaches of the Baalbek-Hermel
governorate, is one area of Lebanon that has been a focal point of the cholera
spread — and efforts to fight the disease. A poor, overcrowded town where
informal settlements sit alongside houses, it’s the perfect place for the
disease to take hold. And while Lebanon is — at the moment largely successfully
— countering cholera, there are fears that the looming winter could isolate
Arsal, where the proportion of Syrian refugees is double that of the Lebanese
population. By the end of November nearly 450,000 vaccines had been
administered. Since the outbreak in early October, there have been about 4,600
suspected or confirmed cases and 20 deaths. The cholera strain found in Lebanon
is similar to the one in neighbouring Syria, itself struggling with a much
larger outbreak. The World Health Organisation describes cholera as "an acute
diarrheal disease that can kill within hours if left untreated”.
It can be easily treated with oral rehydration salts but in severe cases
immediate medical attention is needed.
Lebanon's economic crisis means the country lacks a sufficient supply of
medicine, clean water and electricity. Organisations such as Medicines Sans
Frontiers, which recently opened a cholera treatment unit in Arsal, are going
door-to-door in a bid to get people vaccinated.
One of those to take the vaccine was the family of Salah, a middle-aged Lebanese
man from Arsal who lives near one of the small refugee camps that merge with the
older homes. Normally the family gets their water from lorries and a nearby
well. “You never know. Waste management is not properly functioning, so you
never know if this water is clean or if the water in the well is clean,” he
said. Salah said waste management and infrastructure were already in a bad state
before a series of crises hit Lebanon, including a devastating economic crisis
that first became apparent in 2019 and an influx of refugees fleeing the war in
nearby Syria that began more than a decade ago. “It became worse with
overcrowding but it was already bad,” he added. For now, suspected and confirmed
cholera cases are somewhat stable — and are even potentially going down
slightly, according to government statistics.
The focus has been on prevention — whether through awareness or efforts to
ensure that the water is safe — and on treating those who fall sick.
While cases have largely not been as severe as initially predicted, fears remain
that cholera could be around in Lebanon for longer. It is also believed that
Lebanon’s health system would struggle to tackle a larger or more serious
outbreak. So, the focus is on ensuring that it does not become an epidemic, said
Farah Nasser, medical co-ordinator for MSF Lebanon. “If we want to describe [the
situation] it would be we are still in control, as the cases are still mild to
moderate. The phase we are in now, we still have the hospitals prepared, there
are still places in the hospitals. So it is still under control,” she said,
contrasting the current situation to that when cholera first broke out in
Lebanon when authorities and humanitarian organisations had to rapidly mobilise.
“But now it is controllable and we are having the time to really work on the
prevention arm of the outbreak. The idea is we should focus really on
prevention. If we really worked on prevention, then we will be in a good
place.”Lebanon’s economic capitulation has been described as one of the worst in
modern history by the World Bank, with much of the population plunged into
poverty. It has led to shortages of vital medicine, a lack of clean water and
hospitals impaired by power cuts. “And then with the economic crisis, it put a
huge burden on that system, which is near collapse. They are not getting what
they need [financially] and it's a huge burden on the patients themselves.” All
of Lebanon’s eight governorates have detected cholera, but it is most prominent
in the areas neighbouring Syria, where the border between the two countries is
porous. While Akkar to the north-west of Arsal has recorded more cases, the
latter is bereft of a public hospital — although MSF does operate a clinic — and
relatively isolated.
Akkar and Arsal, which briefly came under the control of ISIS in 2014, have
particularly weak infrastructure and their residents have particularly poor
access to clean water. Winter is expected to be grim in impoverished Arsal —
previous years have seen refugee camps covered in blankets of snow amid below
freezing temperatures. One family The National spoke to said they were forced to
burn plastic to fuel their heater, despite the fact that it would likely worsen
a heart condition of one of their young children. Recent flooding, blamed on
blocked pipes, was yet another issue to hit the area. One of those affected was
Raida, a mother of five who lives in a Syrian refugee camp in Arsal that was
flooded. She was in an isolation unit and had taken her youngest — only three
months old — to the MSF clinic when she had diarrhoea, a classic symptom of
cholera. “Two days ago I realised I was changing her diapers more than usual,”
Raida said. For now, Lebanon’s embattled health system is responding — but a
wider, more serious outbreak could prove too much. “With a bigger outbreak, I
think we would be not in a good place,” said Ms Nasser. "The efforts since day
one to prepare government hospitals to accept patients … most of the hospitals
were prepared within the first two weeks of the outbreak.“But if we had a really
large outbreak, as we've seen in other countries, that would be a super-big
burden on our health system.”
On Fundamentalism of the October 17 Revolution!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 02/2022
Is it true that fundamentalism dominates the climate created by the October 17
revolution, hindering the crystallization of “solutions” through the election of
a president who could save the country and set it on the right track?
Is it fair, at a time when collapses are destroying the lives of the Lebanese
people, during which the majority of them were impoverished, to say that
Lebanon’s October is “dogmatic” and “moves unilaterally, refusing to acknowledge
other versions of the truth?” Some of those spewing this nonsense have gone as
far as claiming that the October forces “greatly oversimply matters and have a
dogmatic understanding of the collapse.” Some have gone even further, claiming
that these forces seek to evoke the “fury of the hoards and exploit their
animosity for the others.” This nonsense totally ignores the fact that collapse
has shattered people’s lives, holding citizens responsible for the opportunism
of the country’s rulers and the hijacking of the state. It leaps over the
reality of the situation affirmed by the World Bank, which called the crisis an
ongoing crime perpetrated by the political class and stressed that the elites
dominating the country have not taken any steps to mitigate it.
There are many questions and just as many pre-prepared answers. Panic has taken
hold of the regime, both those who are “pro-government” and those in the
“opposition,” after the message they received from the ballot boxes, which
suggested that the political scene could potentially change radically. They
worry that the era in which sectarian forces monopolize parliamentary seats and
share the wealth of the country could come to an end. That is why a
comprehensive reading of what the revolution stands for its strong emphasis on
integrity, citizenship, and respecting the constitution, as well as its
repudiation of moral contamination and political corruption- demands that we
think deeply about the events of the past two decades. October 17 found its way
into every community in Lebanon, even seeping into “safe environments.” This
took Hezbollah by surprise, and so it hurled an array of accusations against the
Octoberists, to whom it attributed a series of egregious crimes, including
treachery. They did so for no other reason than the October revolution’s bend to
build the modern state of law and take Lebanon out of the hell it is currently
in!
Two junctures shaped the past two decades. The first was the Independence
Uprising of 2005, which shook the security apparatuses in Beirut and Damascus,
forcing the occupying Syrian army out of the country. As for the second, it is
the October 17 revolution of 2019, which led to the first historical
reconciliation turning the page on the civil war. Through it, people discovered
what unites them, allowing them to overcome decades of sectarian incitement
during which they were living in physical proximity to one another but as
sectarian rivals and when the language of “us and them” dominated! Their coming
together thus made the difference when they demanded their rights from “all of
them means all of them.”
The people’s massive achievement on March 14, 2005, exceeded expectations. An
estimated 1.5 million citizens took to the streets that day, while the
organizers had expected a third of that figure! Men and women of all ages came
together to raise their country’s flag and demand justice and the foundation of
a modern state that can safeguard its citizens and ensure equality of
opportunity, as well as a single, united army. Most importantly, they wanted to
see an end to violations of the constitution and the law, and they insisted on
freedoms and social justice.
The Independence Insurgency spooked its sectarian leadership, and it was thus
prevented from becoming a revolution. And so, the decade of domestic “wheeling
and dealing” began. It guaranteed the interests of the members of the
Quadripartite Alliance that brought March 8 and March 14 forces together,
leaping over the interests of the people and the hopes that they had pinned on
reimplementing the constitution and building a state of law. This alliance sent
shockwaves across the Christian community, shaking their confidence. Meanwhile,
it isolated the Shiites opposed to the thuggery of Hezbollah, which would have
negative repercussions in the future. Despite this, voters gave March 14 a
parliamentary majority in 2005 and 2009. However, March 14 did not even try to
rule in the name of the majority.
The Independence Insurgency was deliberately aborted, and the national balance
of power it spoke to was broken after the “rivals” came together. This
reinforced the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime and disregard for the
constitution, which has become treated like a point of view. The “deal” has
always had apologists and supporters. They claim that after the civil war, the
Lebanese regime came to be based on a “consensus” among the main sects:
Maronites, Sunnis, and Shiites- in practice, between their leaders. The lack of
a “consensus,” they add, would have sparked civil conflict! This argument was
based on the assumption that sectarian quotas are based on estimates of the size
of each community with respect to the others. It thus disregards the rights of
the people and the interests of the country, allows the statelet to chip away at
the state, and mainstreams corruption.
They came together under the roof of a single government, putting their hands on
the state’s resources and sharing power. They did this under the guise of
mendacious claims, the most prominent of which is defending sects’ rights. They
looked the other way as Hezbollah took control of the country’s land crossings,
its airport, and its port and expanded its parallel economy, and robbed the
state.
Over a decade before the revolution erupted, they put they seized the deposits
in the country’s banks, close to 120 billion dollars, to cover deficits, build
clientelist networks, and share the spoils of billions going into the country’s
electricity while it offered absolutely nothing. As a consequence, the collapse
accelerated, unemployment grew, and tens of thousands of skilled workers left
the country because they found no alternative solutions. The country became
closed off because of the policies that Hezbollah had imposed on it, especially
the presidential “deal,” and the systemic pillaging of the country aggravated to
the extent that it now threatens its survival.
The October 17 revolution did not erupt in a vacuum. A criminal clique laid the
groundwork for it. The great collapse pushed the revolution that erupted in the
country’s four corners. The broad sense of resentment to the parties exploded:
the overwhelming majority was pitted against a political class, its supporters,
and its associates. From the very first moment, their slogan was: “all of them
means all of them” are responsible for bringing the Lebanese to their knees. The
compass of the revolution set the destination: liberating the hijacked state and
reinstating the constitution. and retrieving sovereignty. The formation of a
government independent of the regime is a necessary prerequisite. The
Octoberists did not lose sight of the significance of building a mass movement
for the confrontation of the forces in power led by Hezbollah. The latter was on
the frontlines defending the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime,
declaring that that parliament would not be overthrown and that Aoun would
remain in Baabda. Eventually, the number of votes for the Octobirsts would
confirm that the “historical bloc” of their political project is the
alternative!
Three years after the revolutions and the snowballing of crises, the priorities
of the “pro-government” and “opposition” forces of the regime are to abort any
attempt to save the country. Meanwhile, the ruling clique has united in
endorsing the violation of the constitution and the abandonment of sovereignty
and wealth to the enemy, all to polish its image abroad and strengthen its
position domestically! As those who are lucky smuggled their money abroad, the
people received a hidden “haircut” to their deposits, aggravating the collapse
of the currency’s value, the state’s bankruptcy, the unemployment crisis, and
inflation!
All of this affirmed that no reforms are possible from the inside. This theory
has failed and lost out to the privileges of the men clinging to their seats and
using their positions of power to build their wealth. When they looted the
country’s private and public wealth, starved the people, and broadened the
crisis, they showed just how strongly they would stand against any reforms.
Indeed reforms are an existential threat, and so the political class cannot be
part of the push for change.
After October 17, people are no longer afraid. It brought down the attempts to
terrorize, crush, and co-opt it. It will soon become organized within a
framework. It is fundamentalist in its loyalty to the people and their hopes. It
knows that electing a paper tiger president is not as significant as liberating
the state, retrieving its capacity to make its decisions and rebuilding the
country. The illegitimate arms would thus become scrap metal, and it will not
lose sight of the need to force the opportunists who depended on these arms into
early retirement.
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on December 02-03/2022
Macron, Biden Agree on Establishing European Defense
Washington - Heba El Koudsy/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday,
2 December, 2022
US President Joe Biden announced his readiness to meet with Russian President
Vladimir Putin on the condition that Putin is ready to end the aggression on
Ukraine. The President stressed that the only way to end the war was Russia's
withdrawal from Ukraine, ruling out that Russia would be able to achieve victory
in the war. Biden was speaking during the first state visit of his presidency in
the presence of French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron focused on showing the
massive infrastructure damage in Ukrainian and the impact of the war on European
countries. Both leaders reiterated their continued support for the Ukrainian
people, ensured their steadfastness in the face of Russia, and asserted the need
to equip the Ukrainian forces with the necessary financial and military aid.
They also agreed to support the defenses of NATO and its members, but there
appeared to be a big gap between Macron's desire to end the Russian-Ukrainian
war through negotiations and Biden's desire to support Kyiv until the
restoration of all lands from the control of the Russian forces. Macron
confirmed in an interview with ABC channel that he would hold talks with Putin
in the coming days, noting that he wanted to visit Washington and have in-depth
discussions with Biden. On Thursday, the French President called for a "lasting
peace" to end the conflict, noting that a "good peace is not a peace which will
be imposed to the Ukrainians by others," adding, "A good peace is not a peace
which will not be accepted on the mid-to-long run by one of the two
parties."Macron believes negotiation is still "possible" with Putin to end
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which he described as a "huge mistake.""[Putin] is
in charge, and he's been in charge for quite a long time … He knows his people.
I think he made a mistake," Macron said. "Is it impossible to come back [to] the
table and negotiate something? I think it's still possible."The last official
talks between Macron and Putin dated back to Sept. 11, and the French President
announced that he intends to have "direct contact" with the Russian President on
several issues. The Elysee Palace stated that Macron would remind Putin of
France's demands, which are the exit of Russian forces from Ukraine, and
restoring Kyiv's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Meanwhile, Biden and
Macron disagreed on several issues, including China and stability in the Indian
and Pacific oceans.
Macron favored a pragmatic rapprochement with China to achieve a breakthrough,
while Biden adhered to the policy of competition with Beijing on some issues and
cooperating on others. The disparity between the two leaders was apparent
regarding the most pressing issues, as Biden refused to apologize for enacting
the Inflation Reduction Law, despite Macron's attempts to convince him of its
negative impact on French and European companies.
The French and US Presidents agreed on the Iranian nuclear program, as Biden
stressed that both countries are determined to ensure that Iran can never
develop or acquire a nuclear weapon.
They also expressed their respect for the Iranian people who are "bravely
protesting" to gain the freedom to exercise their human rights and fundamental
freedoms, which Iran itself has subscribed to and is violating.
Paris and Washington continue to work with other international partners to
address Iran's nuclear escalation, its insufficient cooperation with the IAEA,
including on severe and outstanding issues relating to Iran's legal obligations
under its Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, and its destabilizing
activities in the Middle East. In a joint statement issued before the press
conference, the Presidents recognized the importance of a stronger and more
capable European defense that contributes positively to transatlantic and global
security and is complementary to and interoperable with NATO.
The statement stressed the speedy provision of significant resources to support
Ukrainian civilian resilience through the winter, including stepping up the
delivery of air defense systems and equipment needed to repair Ukraine's energy
grid.
The United States and France plan to continue working with partners and allies
to coordinate assistance efforts, including at the international conference in
Paris on Dec. 13, 2022. They also intended to continue providing robust direct
budget support for Ukraine and to urge international financial institutions to
scale up their financial support. The US and France are strengthening their
partnership in the Indo-Pacific region to advance prosperity, security, and
shared values based on a rules-based international order, transparent
governance, fair economic practices, and respect for international law,
including freedom of navigation. They would continue to coordinate on concerns
regarding China's challenge to the rules-based international order, including
respect for human rights, and work with China on critical global issues like
climate change. They also strongly condemned North Korea's unprecedented number
of unlawful ballistic missile tests this year that violated multiple UN Security
Council resolutions and threatened regional peace and stability. Concerning
Africa, the presidents renewed their resolve to work with African partners to
pursue shared governance, security, and economic priorities on the continent.
Paris and Washington are determined to work closely to support peace and
prosperity in the Middle East. The Presidents welcomed the historic breakthrough
of the October 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime boundary agreement. The Presidents
welcomed the successful first year of the US-France Bilateral Clean Energy
Partnership, which convened most recently in October 2022, as the high-level
platform to advance energy and climate cooperation.
Biden’s Offer to Talk to Putin Is a Trial Balloon to End War in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
President Joe Biden has floated a trial balloon to President Vladimir Putin to
determine whether Russia, after months of battlefield losses and stalled gains,
is ready to end its invasion of Ukraine. Biden has avoided talking to Putin
since the Russian leader sent his armed forces into Ukraine last February,
called him a war criminal responsible for thousands of deaths, and atrocities
and said he "cannot remain in power." But at a news conference with French
President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday, Biden offered what appeared to be a
diplomatic opening. "Let me choose my words very carefully," Biden said. "I'm
prepared to speak with Mr. Putin if in fact there is an interest in him deciding
he's looking for a way to end the war. He hasn't done that yet." The Kremlin
shot back that Putin is "open to negotiations" but that the West must accept
Russian demands, a sign that Moscow is sticking to its desire to control part of
Ukraine and show the Russian people that his "special military operation" is not
in vain. Biden and his national security advisers have wondered for months
what it would take to entice Putin into a diplomatic off-ramp. The United States
has sent more than $18 billion in American weaponry to Ukraine to help repel
Russia, and tens of billions of dollars in other aid. "We're trying to figure
out what is Putin’s off-ramp...Where does he find a way out? Where does he find
himself in a position he does not, not only lose face but lose significant power
in Russia," Biden said at a Democratic fundraiser in New York in October.
Speculation about talks to end the war have accelerated as Moscow's war gains
have stalled, while its missile strikes against electric power facilities in
Ukraine have raised the possibility that millions of Ukrainians will face the
winter without electricity. US Army General Mark Milley, chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff, has reflected a view within the Biden administration that
Ukraine has made about all the gains it can on the battlefield at this stage.
"The probability of a Ukrainian military victory - defined as kicking the
Russians out of all of Ukraine to include what they claim as Crimea - the
probability of that happening anytime soon is not high, militarily," Milley told
reporters on Nov. 16. Biden, who talks regularly to Ukraine President
Volodomyr Zelenskiy, has previously been clear he defers to Ukraine's wishes.
"There’s no — nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," Biden said Nov. 14, when
asked about possible negotiations. He reiterated US support for Ukraine at
his news conference with Macron. "We’ll continue the strong support for the
people of Ukraine as they defend their homes and their families and their
sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russian aggression, which has been
incredibly brutal," he said. He called the idea that Putin could defeat Ukraine
"beyond comprehension." On negotiations, though he mentioned NATO allies, not
Zelenskiy. "I'm prepared, if he's willing to talk, to find out what he's willing
to do, but I'll only do it in consultation with my NATO allies. I'm not going to
do it on my own." But Macron, standing next to Biden, made the point that "we
will never urge the Ukrainians to make a compromise which will not be acceptable
for them." Biden's remarks could play well among many countries wary of being
stuck in the middle of a stand-off between the United States and Russia and
paying the price for Moscow's war, which the United Nations says has fueled a
global food crisis. In Kyiv last month, US Ambassador to the United Nations,
Linda Thomas-Greenfield noted Zelenskiy had said he was willing to undertake
diplomacy with Russia under certain conditions.
Eyeing Iran, the U.S. and Israel Conduct
Combined Air Exercise
FDD/December 02/2022
Latest Developments
The United States Air Force and the Israeli Air Force began a combined air
exercise in Israel on Tuesday that includes fighter aircraft from both countries
and a U.S. air refueling tanker. The exercise helps build the readiness of both
air forces and their ability to operate together while honing some of the exact
capabilities Israel would need to conduct a successful kinetic strike against
the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program. While a Pentagon spokesperson
portrayed the exercise as routine, statements from the Israeli prime minister
and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) left little doubt about their intended
audience in Tehran.
Expert Analysis
“Demonstrating the ability to conduct successful strikes against the Iranian
nuclear weapons program sends a valuable deterrent message to Tehran. Americans
and Israelis should significantly expand combined military exercises focused on
ensuring the leading state sponsor of terrorism never acquires the world’s most
dangerous weapon.” – Bradley Bowman, Senior Director of FDD’s Center on Military
and Political Power
Fighters and Air Refueling
The exercise has included four American F-15 fighters, four Israeli F-35i “Adir”
aircraft, several Israeli F-16i aircraft, and at least one American KC-135
refueling tanker, according to an IDF release on Wednesday. The F-35i and F-15
aircraft flew through Israeli airspace together, while the KC-135 refueled F-16i
fighters in flight. The IDF Intelligence Directorate simulated a campaign
against “distant countries” as part of the exercise, testing intelligence
gathering, target determination, and intelligence distribution capabilities.
Another Usual Exercise at An Unusual Time
“They are exercising fighter escort and aerial refueling,” Pentagon spokesman
Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder stated on Tuesday. “It’s also not something that’s
unusual,” he added. The Department of Defense and the IDF have conducted many
similar exercises in the past, but Iran’s continued progress toward a nuclear
weapons capability makes this exercise more salient.
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid monitored a portion of the exercise on
Wednesday in an underground control center. “The strategic cooperation with the
United States and other countries strengthens the capabilities of the IDF
against the challenges in the Middle East, led by Iran,” Lapid said at the end
of the visit.
Building Israel’s Long-Range Strike Capabilities
Given the distances from Israel to Iran, Israeli aircraft attacking Iran’s
nuclear program and attempting to return to their bases would require air
refueling, assuming landing en route for refueling outside of Iran is not
feasible. Israel relies on decades-old 707 refuelers that are increasingly
expensive and difficult to maintain. That is why Israel plans to procure the
KC-46 air refueling tanker from the United States. The first KC-46, however, is
unlikely to arrive in Israel before 2025. The Pentagon could help Israel prepare
for the arrival of its KC-46s and expedite their availability for combat by
taking several steps now, including by sending an American KC-46 to future
exercises, like the one occurring this week.
Kremlin: Putin is Open to Talks on Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
President Vladimir Putin is open to talks on a possible settlement to the
conflict in Ukraine and believes in a diplomatic solution, the Kremlin said on
Friday after Joe Biden suggested he was prepared to speak to the Russian leader.
Biden, speaking beside French President Emmanuel Macron, said the only way to
end the war in Ukraine was for Putin to pull troops out and that if Putin was
looking to end the conflict then Biden would be prepared to speak to the Kremlin
chief, Reuters reported. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov struck a dovish tone
when asked about Biden's remarks, saying that Putin remained open to
negotiations but that Russia would not pull out of Ukraine. "The president of
the Russian Federation has always been, is and remains open to negotiations in
order to ensure our interests," Peskov told reporters. Putin has said he has no
regrets about launching what he calls Russia's "special military operation"
against Ukraine, casting it as a watershed moment when Russia finally stood up
to arrogant Western hegemony after decades of humiliation in the years since the
1991 fall of the Soviet Union. Ukraine and the West say Putin has no
justification for what they cast as an imperial-style war of occupation. Ukraine
says it will fight until the last Russian soldier is ejected from its territory.
Russia has claimed around a fifth of Ukraine's post-Soviet territory,
annexations the West and Ukraine say they will ever accept. Peskov said that the
refusal of the United States to recognize "the new territories" as Russian was
hindering a search for any potential compromise. Asked if the way Biden was
framing potential contacts meant that negotiations were impossible from a
Russian perspective, Peskov said: "In essence, that's what Biden said. He said
that negotiations are possible only after Putin leaves Ukraine."The Kremlin,
Peskov said, could not accept that - and the Russian military operation would
continue in Ukraine. "But at the same time - it is very important to give this
in conjunction – President Putin has been, is and remains open for contacts, for
negotiations. Of course, the most preferable way to achieve our interests is
through peaceful, diplomatic means."The conflict has left tens of thousands of
soldiers dead on both sides and triggered the biggest confrontation between
Moscow and the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile crisis.
UN Nuclear Chief Says Iran Ties Need to Get Back on
Track
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
Iran appears to be at odds with the UN nuclear watchdog over information it
should be providing regarding its atomic program, the head of the International
Atomic Energy Agency said on Friday. "We don't seem to be seeing eye-to-eye with
Iran over their obligations to the IAEA," Rafael Grossi told a conference in
Rome, adding that he was concerned over a recent announcement by Tehran that it
was boosting its enrichment capacity. "We need to put our relationship back on
track," he said. Grossi said he was "still hopeful" Tehran would give an
explanation for the unexpected discovery a few years back of traces of uranium
traces at three undeclared sites. A recent IAEA report said Iran had agreed to a
visit by the UN watchdog in November to start giving long-waited answers.
However, the meeting has not yet happened. The issue of the unexplained uranium
particles has become an obstacle in wider talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear
deal with world powers since Tehran is now seeking a closure of the IAEA's
investigation as part of those negotiations, Western powers say. Grossi said the
talks appeared to have stalled. "At the moment it does not seem to have the
momentum it needs to (get) back to life," he said. He added that he was
concerned by Iran's announcement last month that it had begun enriching uranium
to 60% purity at its Fordow nuclear plant. "Iran informed us they were tripling,
not doubling, tripling their capacity to enrich uranium at 60%, which is very
close to military level, which is 90%" he said. "This is not banal. This is
something that has consequences. It gives them an inventory of nuclear material
for which it cannot be excluded ... that there might be another use. We need to
go. We need to verify," he said. Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons, saying its
nuclear technology is solely for civil purposes.
Paris Slams Iran Foreign Ministry’s Summoning of Its
Ambassador to Tehran
Paris - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
France slammed on Thursday Iran’s summoning of the French ambassador to Tehran,
Nicolas Roche, to its foreign ministry. “The Ministry for Europe and Foreign
Affairs deplores the Iranian authorities’ summoning of France’s ambassador to
Tehran on Nov. 30, in response to the National Assembly’s adoption of a
resolution on Nov.28 expressing its support for freedom in Iran,” the statement
read. “Once again, France condemns the current crackdown and the multiple
attacks on basic freedoms in Iran in the strongest possible terms.”It reiterated
that the protestors’ desire for greater freedom and the respect of their rights
are legitimate and must be heard. Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned Roche on
Wednesday following a unanimous vote by lawmakers in Paris earlier this week
condemning infringement of liberties and women's rights, state media said. The
ambassador heard Iran’s “strong protest against the baseless accusations” and
“unacceptable interventions” in Iran’s internal affairs, the official IRNA news
agency reported. Legislators in France’s National Assembly unanimously approved
a nonbinding resolution supporting the protesters.
The measure strongly condemns what French lawmakers call “the brutal and
generalized repression by the security forces ... toward non-violent
demonstrators, which constitutes a blatant and unacceptable violation of the
right to demonstrate and freedom of expression.”It also denounces laws and rules
restricting the rights of women and minorities in Iran. It calls for the release
of seven French citizens detained in Iran, too. During the debate on the
resolution in the French parliament on Monday, Foreign Minister Catherine
Colonna condemned “the Iranian regime's massive use of arbitrary detention,
censorship, and violence.”She said Iran was responding with “repression” to the
“legitimate aspirations of Iranian women and men.”On the sidelines of the G20
Summit in Indonesia in November, French President Emmanuel Macron denounced
Tehran's “increasing aggressiveness” towards France through “unacceptable”
hostage-taking and called on Tehran to return to calm and the spirit of
cooperation.
Tight Security Measures in Iranian Kurdistan, Raisi Pushes
for Calm
London – Tehran – Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
As the twelfth week of Iranian protests approaches, President Ebrahim Raisi
headed on Thursday to the capital of Kurdistan Province, Sanandaj, amid tight
security measures in the city that has become the cradle of demonstrations in
the west of Iran. “During the recent riots, the enemies miscalculated in
believing that they could cause chaos, insecurity, and riots,” said Raisi on the
sidelines of his inauguration of a water supply project in Sanandaj. “People are
facing economic and social problems, but they know how to face the enemy with
their solidarity,” added the president. Raisi pledged that Kurdistan province
would be a “major” destination for his upcoming visits. Since September 17, the
region has been rocked by more than 100 deaths during authorities’ crackdown to
quell the protests sparked by the death of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini,
who died in police custody. Rage over Amini’s death turned into a popular
uprising by Iranians from all walks of life, posing one of the most daring
challenges to the ruling establishment since the 1979 revolution. At least 459
protesters have been killed so far by security forces during the unrest in Iran,
including 64 minors, according to the activist HRANA news agency.The agency said
that it is closely monitoring human rights violations in Iran. At least 18,195
individuals have been arrested in 157 cities and 143 universities that were
stormed by anti-regime protests. Raisi did not mention sending reinforcements
from the Revolutionary Guard ground forces to Kurdish areas, but he said: “In
Kurdistan, we stood against the counter-revolutionary groups. They tried to find
a foothold for themselves, but the people of Kurdistan thwarted their
efforts.”“The brutality and cruelty of those behind the riots reminds us of the
behavior of (ISIS),” the state-run ISNA news agency quoted Raisi as telling the
family of one of the security forces killed in the protests.
Women Join Protests in Iran’s Conservative Southeast
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
Black-clad women in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province on Friday joined
nationwide protests sparked by Mahsa Amini's death, in what a rights group
called a "rare" move in the staunchly conservative region. Online videos showed
dozens of women on the streets of the provincial capital Zahedan holding banners
that declared "Woman, life, freedom" -- one of the main slogans of the protest
movement that erupted in mid-September. "Whether with hijab, whether without it,
onwards to revolution," women dressed in body-covering chador garments chanted
in videos posted on Twitter and verified by AFP.
Women-led protests have swept Iran since Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish
origin, died following her arrest in Tehran for an alleged breach of the Islamic
republic's dress code based on sharia law. Security forces have killed at least
448 protesters, with the largest toll in Sistan-Baluchistan on Iran's
southeastern border with Afghanistan and Pakistan, according to Iran Human
Rights, an Oslo-based non-governmental organization. "It is indeed rare," IHR
director Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam said of the protests by women in Zahedan, which
has seen men take to the streets after Friday prayers for more than two months.
"The ongoing protests in Iran are the beginning of a revolution of dignity," he
told AFP. "Women and minorities, who have for more than four decades been
treated as second class citizens, are empowered through these protests to come
out to the streets and demand their fundamental human rights."
Baluchi women were among the "most oppressed" in Iran and their protests were
the most organized by them so far since demonstrations broke out across the
country, Amiry-Moghaddam added. Scores of men also took to the streets again on
Friday, chanting "we don't want a child-killing government", footage posted
online by activists showed. Security forces were seen opening fire with bird
shot and tear gas on male protesters in Taftan, a locality in Sistan-Baluchistan,
in a video published by IHR.
'Bloody Friday'
Mainly Sunni Muslim Sistan-Baluchistan is Iran's poorest region whose ethnic
Baluch inhabitants feel discriminated against. At least 128 people have been
killed in Sistan-Baluchistan during the protest crackdown, according to IHR, by
far its biggest toll for deaths recorded in 26 of Iran's 31 provinces.
More than 90 of them were killed on September 30 alone -- a massacre that
activists have dubbed "Black Friday". Those protests were triggered by the
alleged rape in custody of a 15-year-old girl by a police commander in the
province's port city of Chabahar. Analysts say the Baluchi were inspired by the
protests that flared over Amini's death, which were initially driven by women's
rights but expanded over time to include other grievances. "Iran's Baluchi
minority face entrenched discrimination that curtails their access to education,
health care, employment, adequate housing and political office," Amnesty
International said on Tuesday. "The Baluchi minority have borne the brunt of the
vicious crackdown by security forces during the uprising that has swept across
Iran since September," Amnesty said in a statement. The second province on IHR's
list is Amini's home province of Kurdistan on Iran's western border with Iraq,
another epicenter of the protests with a Sunni majority, where 53 people died.
Iran accuses its arch enemy the United States and its allies Britain and Israel
of fomenting what it calls "riots". State news agency IRNA on Friday reported
that authorities had summoned foreign diplomats 12 times since the protests
erupted "in reaction... to unprecedented pressure" imposed on Tehran by their
countries. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian meanwhile complained, in a
phone call with UN chief Antonio Guterres, about "actions carried out by the
United States and other Western countries to incite riots in Iran", IRNA said.
Iran has blamed protest-related violence in Kurdistan on separatists, and has
repeatedly launched deadly cross-border strikes on Kurdish groups exiled in
Iraq. An Iranian general said this week that "more than 300 martyrs and people"
have been killed in the unrest. Thousands of Iranians and around 40 foreigners
have been arrested during the demonstrations and more than 2,000 people have
been charged, according to the country's judicial authorities. On Friday, UN
experts urged Iran to release prominent rights activist Arash Sadeghi from
"unlawful" detention, saying he suffers from "life-threatening bone cancer".
Palestinians Welcomes UN Resolution to Commemorate Nakba
amid Israeli Anger
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
The United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday voted to adopt a
pro-Palestinian resolutions, including to commemorate the “Nakba,” a step
welcomed by Palestine and slammed by Israel. The UN resolution calls for a
“commemoration of the 75th anniversary of the Nakba, including by organizing a
high-level event at the General Assembly Hall” in May 2023. It also urges the
“dissemination of relevant archives and testimonies.” Egypt, Jordan, Senegal,
Tunisia, Yemen and the Palestinians sponsored the initiative, which passed by a
vote of 90 in favor, 30 against and 47 abstentions.
Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad al-Maliki said the step is considered a UN
recognition of Palestine’s tragedy that led to the displacement of Palestinians,
most of who became refugees in the diaspora or repressed by the apartheid regime
and colonialism. The vote is a step towards acknowledging the historical
injustice that befell the Palestinian people. The vote in favor of the
resolutions indicates the international consensus on the Palestinian cause and
the right of the Palestinian people to live in freedom and dignity, their right
to self-determination, the independence of the State of Palestine, and the
return of refugees.
The Assembly also adopted the “Peaceful settlement of the Palestine cause,” the
“Division for Palestinian Rights of the Secretariat,” the “Special information
program on the Palestinian cause of the Department of Global Communications of
the Secretariat,” and the “Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights
of the Palestinian People.”The resolutions adopted infuriated Israel. Israel’s
ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, slammed the vote, asking delegates at the
General Assembly, “What would you say if the international community celebrated
the establishment of your country as a disaster (the meaning of Nakba in
Arabic)? What a disgrace,” he added. Erdan claimed that “a completely false
story about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been told for 75 years in the
UN building. They tell a story about the Palestinian refugees, which of course
disregards the Jewish Nakba, which is the real Nakba.”
Israel, Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy,
the Netherlands, the UK and the US were among the countries that voted against.
Ukraine did not vote. Kyiv sparked a diplomatic spat with Jerusalem by voting in
favor of an anti-Israel resolution earlier this month. “This year regrettably
marked 55 years since the illegal Israeli military occupation of the Palestinian
territory, including East Jerusalem, and other Arab territories in 1967,” the
assembly said.
“This year also marks the 75th anniversary of the General Assembly’s adoption of
the resolution 181 (II) partitioning Mandate Palestine and the 74th anniversary
of the 1948 Nakba that tragically befell the Palestinian people.”The partition
plan adopted by the General Assembly in 1947 called for independent Jewish and
Arab states in what was then British-controlled Mandatory Palestine. Jewish
representatives accepted the plan, but the Arab world rejected it and launched
the 1948 war. Palestinian envoy to the UN Riyad Mansour said at the event: “We
are at the end of the road for the two-state solution. Either the international
community summons the will to act decisively or it will let peace die passively.
Passively, not peacefully.”He called on the international community to pressure
Israel, for the UN to grant the Palestinians full recognition and for a
Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
Israeli Officer Kills Palestinian Assailant in West Bank,
Police Say
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
An Israeli officer shot dead a Palestinian assailant in the occupied West Bank
on Friday, border police said, an incident which the Palestinians denounced as
an execution. The man had stabbed and lightly wounded a border policeman
after which another officer overpowered him. The man then fought with the
officer and tried to snatch his rifle before the officer shot him dead, border
police said in a statement. The Palestinian Health Ministry confirmed his death.
The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said it was tantamount to an execution meant to
escalate already spiraling violence in the territory, which Palestinians seek
for a state. Border police distributed a photo of a knife on the ground and
another of a border policeman with what appears to be a stabbing wound to his
head. A video circulating on social media showed an officer holding a man in a
head-lock by a road as two other men try to wrestle him away. The man then
appears to strike the officer and attempt to take hold of his rifle before the
officer pulls out a handgun and shoots him several times as he falls to the
ground. The video, taken from a distance as vehicles cross the frame, could not
be independently verified by Reuters. It does not show what had transpired prior
and whether the man had been holding a knife or any other weapon before it was
filmed. A border police spokesman did not respond to Reuters requests for
comment on the incident, which took place close to the city of Nablus. The city,
along with nearby Jenin, has seen intensified and often fatal Israeli military
operations, since a spate of deadly Palestinian street attacks in Israeli cities
in March. The worst violence in the West Bank in years has deepened diplomatic
stagnation since US-brokered peace talks aimed at establishing a Palestinian
state there, in Gaza and in East Jerusalem, collapsed in 2014. The incoming
Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu looks likely to include far-right
politicians who oppose Palestinian statehood and want the Palestinian Authority
(PA), which wields limited self-rule in the West Bank, dismantled.
Türkiye: Russia, US Failed to Clear Militia from Syria
Border
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 2 December, 2022
Türkiye’s foreign minister charged Friday that the United States and Russia have
failed to meet promises to clear Syria’s border with Türkiye from Kurdish
militants, forcing Ankara to intervene. Speaking at the Mediterranean Dialogues
forum in Rome, Italy, Mevlut Cavusoglu also said Türkiye was seeking
reconciliation with Syria’s government to facilitate the return of refugees,
cooperate in fighting extremists and end the conflict in Syria. Cavusoglu’s
comments came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed last month to
launch a new land invasion of northern Syria to target militant Kurdish groups,
following a Nov. 13 explosion in Istanbul that killed six people. The Turkish
military has launched a barrage of airstrikes on suspected militant targets in
northern Syria and Iraq in retaliation. The Kurdish groups have denied
involvement in the bombing and say Turkish strikes have killed civilians and are
threatening the fight against the ISIS group. “We reached an understanding with
the United States and the Russian Federation,” Cavusoglu said. “They committed
to push those terrorists further south from our border ... But since then, they
haven’t met their commitments.” He was referring to separate deals reached with
Moscow and Washington in 2019, under which both agreed to push Syrian Kurdish
fighters from a wide swath of territory south of Türkiye’s border. “We need to
continue our operation to clean these areas from terrorists and terrorist
organizations,” the minister said. Turkey has carried out a series of incursions
into Syria since 2016 and already controls parts of northern Syria. Both Moscow
and Washington, which have forces in northern Syria, have voiced opposition to a
possible new Turkish incursion. Türkiye, which had once sought Syrian President
Bashar Assad's removal from office and has strongly backed the opposition in the
Syrian conflict, has more recently said it is open to dialogue and
reconciliation with Damascus. Turkish and Syrian security officials have held a
series of talks, Turkish officials say. Cavusoglu said Türkiye needs to “engage”
with Syria’s government for a “voluntary, safe and dignified return” of some of
the 3.6 million Syrians that have found refuge in Türkiye. “We need to also
cooperate in our fight against terrorist organizations without any
discrimination,” Cavusoglu said. He added: “I hope the (Syrian) regime will
understand this: Without such reconciliation, there will be no lasting peace and
stability in the country.”
Syrian rebels did not know Iraqi militant killed was IS
head
Associated Press/Friday 02 December, 2022
When Syrian rebels attacked a hideout in mid-October in the southern Syrian
village of Jassem, they had no idea that a militant commander who was killed in
the operation was the leader of the Islamic State group. Syrian opposition
activists and state media apparently did not know that the man killed was IS
leader Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi and identified him as Abu Abdul-Rahman
al-Iraqi. The operation lasted two days and started on Oct. 14, the day after a
bombing on a bus in a suburb of the capital Damascus. That attack killed 18
Syrian soldiers and wounded at least 27 others. Syrian state media at the time
reported that authorities received information that IS members have hideouts in
the northern neighborhoods of Jassem, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) south of
Damascus. In the operation, Syrian troops were joined with former rebels who had
reconciled with the government in 2018 and were allowed to stay and keep their
weapons in the southern province of Daraa. State news agency SANA has said it
was a joint operation against the suspected militant hideout. Amid the intensity
of the fighting, an Iraqi IS commander known as Abu Abdul-Rahman al-Iraqi, made
his family escape from the house where he was staying and once they were out and
he was totally surrounded, the Iraqi citizen detonated an explosive belt he was
wearing, killing himself, according to Rami Abdurrahman who heads the
Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor. In
a nearby house, rebels surrounded and blew up the hideout of two other IS
militants, a Lebanese and a Syrian, killing both of them, Abdurrahman said.
According to Syria's state news agency SANA, three rebels were killed and seven
others were wounded in the battle in Jassem that lasted since the late hours of
October 14 until the next day. During the fighting, Syrian troops imposed a
curfew on the village, SANA said. The operation did not get much attention
outside Syria at the time but on Wednesday, an IS spokesman released an audio
saying that the group's leader al-Qurayshi was killed in battle recently without
giving further details. "We were taken by surprise that the man killed was the
leader of Daesh," said Ahmed al-Masalmeh, who used an Arabic acronym for the
Islamic State group. Al-Masalmeh is an opposition activist from Daraa who now
lives in Jordan but remains in contact with rebels back home. He added that the
information they had at the time was that the man killed was Abu Abdul-Rahman
al-Iraqi who was believed to be the IS commander in southern Syria. Al-Masalmeh
said rebels in southern Syria had reliable information that a senior IS
commander was based in the country's south after another commander was killed in
the summer in the region. Hours after IS made the announcement, the U.S.
military said al-Qurayshi was killed in mid-October adding that the operation
was conducted by Syrian rebels in Daraa. The latest killing shows that the three
IS leaders, who were all Iraqis, were killed in Syria in recent years outside
the areas the militant group once purported to rule. Two were killed by the U.S.
military in Syria's rebel-held northwestern province of Idlib while the third
was killed in southern Syria far from the former domains of the so-called
caliphate. Little had been known about al-Qurayshi, who took over the group's
leadership following the death of his predecessor, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi,
in a U.S. raid in February in northwest Syria. The group's founder Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi was hunted down by the Americans in a raid in Idlib in October 2019.
IS spokesman Abu Omar al-Muhajer said in the audio that Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini
al-Qurayshi was named as the group's new leader.
Syria Resisting Russia’s Efforts to Broker Türkiye Summit,
Sources Say
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday 02 December, 2022
Syria is resisting Russian efforts to broker a summit with Türkiye’s President
Tayyip Erdogan, three sources said on Friday, after more than a decade of bitter
enmity since the outbreak of Syria's war. Erdogan's government supports
opposition fighters who tried to topple President Bashar al-Assad and has
accused the Syrian leader of state terrorism, saying earlier in the conflict
that peace efforts could not continue under his rule. Assad says it is Türkiye
which has backed terrorism by supporting an array of fighters including
extremist factions and launching repeated military incursions inside northern
Syria. Ankara is readying another possible operation, after blaming Syrian
Kurdish fighters for a bombing in Istanbul. Russia helped Assad turn the tide of
the war in his favor and says it is seeking a political end to the conflict and
wants to bring the two leaders together for talks. Erdogan has signaled
readiness for rapprochement. "There can be no resentment in politics," he said
in a televised discussion at the weekend. However, three sources with knowledge
of Syria's position on possible talks said Assad had rejected a proposal to meet
Erdogan with Russia's President Vladimir Putin. Two of the sources said Damascus
believed such a meeting could boost Erdogan ahead of Turkish elections next
year, especially if it addressed Ankara's goal of returning some of the 3.6
million Syrian refugees from Türkiye. "Why hand Erdogan a victory for free? No
rapprochement will happen before the elections," one of the two said, adding
that Syria had also turned down the idea of a foreign ministers' meeting. The
third source, a diplomat with knowledge of the proposal, said Syria "sees such a
meeting as useless if it does not come with anything concrete, and what they
have asked for so far is the full withdrawal of Turkish troops." Turkish
officials said this week the army needed just a few days to be ready for a
ground incursion into northern Syria, where it has already carried out artillery
and air strikes. But the government has also said it is ready for talks with
Damascus if they focus on security at the border, where Ankara wants Syrian
Kurdish YPG fighters pushed from the frontier and refugees moved into "safe
zones". An Assad-Erdogan meeting could be possible "in the not too distant
future", a source with knowledge of Türkiye’s approach to the issue said. "Putin
is slowly preparing the path for this," the source said. "It would be the
beginning of a major change in Syria and would have very positive effects on
Türkiye. Russia would benefit too...given it is stretched in many areas."
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on December 02-03/2022
China Operating Illegal Police Stations Worldwide
Judith Bergman/ Gatestone Institute/December 02, 2022
China has set up at least 54 overseas police stations in 30 countries, including
in the United States (New York), Canada, Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands,
the United Kingdom, Hungary, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Argentina and
Nigeria, according to a recent report from Safeguard Defenders, a human rights
NGO.
The police stations are part of China's campaign to "persuade" Chinese citizens
suspected of criminal acts – particularly telecommunications fraud, but also
political "crimes" such as political dissent – to return to China to face
criminal prosecution. China not only threatens the Chinese citizens themselves
but also members of their families who have stayed behind in China. Such threats
have been continuing for years, as FBI Director Christopher Wray pointed out in
2020, when he mentioned a case from the US in which a Chinese government
"emissary" visited a target in the US and told him that he could choose between
returning to China or committing suicide.
China's overseas police stations purport merely to have administrative or
consular functions, but function as means of threatening Chinese abroad to
return to China, thereby skipping the necessary legal requirements under
international law.
Crucially, the police stations operate without the consent and knowledge of the
host countries, such as in the Netherlands, where one of the police stations
operates out of a plain ground-floor apartment in Rotterdam belonging to a small
Chinese handyman business.
Beijing, not surprisingly, has denied all wrongdoing. "The organizations you
mentioned are not police stations or police service centers," Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian Zhao insisted. "Their activities are to assist
local Chinese citizens who need to apply for expired driver's license renewal
online...."
Safeguard Defenders has appealed to countries to take swift action against the
police stations.
"Action needs also be taken to protect a quickly growing Chinese diaspora in the
target countries, unless the latter are content with having a foreign government
police minority groups on their territory, often to the intentional detriment of
the target country and its policies, and aimed at intimidating the diaspora into
obedience to the CCP anywhere in the world. Dedicated reporting and protection
mechanisms must urgently be made available." – Safeguard Defenders, January 18,
2022.
China has set up at least 54 overseas police stations in 30 countries, including
in the United States (New York), Canada, Spain, Italy, France, the Netherlands,
the United Kingdom, Hungary, Portugal, the Czech Republic, Brazil, Argentina and
Nigeria, according to a recent report from Safeguard Defenders, a human rights
NGO. Most of these police stations are located in Europe, with nine such police
stations in major Spanish cities, four in Italy, and three in Paris, among
others.
According to Peter Dahlin, director of Safeguard Defenders, those are just the
tip of the iceberg:
"We are convinced that there are many more, because these only belong to two
jurisdictions – Fuzhou and Qingtian, where most of the Chinese in Spain come
from – and China itself admits that it has launched the project in ten. So it
could be up to five times more."
The police stations are part of China's campaign to "persuade" Chinese citizens
suspected of criminal acts – particularly telecommunications fraud, but also
political "crimes" such as political dissent – to return to China to face
criminal prosecution. China not only threatens the Chinese citizens themselves
but also members of their families who have stayed behind in China. Such threats
have been continuing for years, as FBI Director Christopher Wray pointed out in
2020, when he mentioned a case from the US in which a Chinese government
"emissary" visited a target in the US and told him that he could choose between
returning to China or committing suicide.
On August 17, China's Ministry of Public Security stated:
"The number of cross-border telecom fraud cases targeting Chinese residents has
been significantly decreased in China, with 230,000 telecom fraud suspects being
educated and persuaded to return to China from overseas to confess crimes from
April 2021 to July 2022..."
"Official guidelines explicitly outline the different tools made available to
'persuade' the targets to voluntarily return to China to face charges,"
Safeguard Defenders wrote.
"These include targeting the purported suspects' children in China, denying them
the right to education, as well as targeting family members and relatives in a
similar fashion. In short, a full-on 'guilt by association' punishment to
'encourage' suspects to return from abroad."
China's overseas police stations purport merely to have administrative or
consular functions, but function as means of threatening Chinese abroad to
return to China, thereby skipping the necessary legal requirements under
international law. According to Safeguard Defenders:
"These methods allow the CCP and their security organs to circumvent normal
bilateral mechanisms of police and judicial cooperation, thereby severely
undermining the international rule of law and territorial integrity of the third
countries involved... In eschewing regular cooperation mechanisms, the CCP
manages to avoid the growing scrutiny of its human rights record and the ensuing
difficulties faced in obtaining the return of 'fugitives' through legal
proceedings such as formal extradition requests. It leaves legal Chinese
residents abroad fully exposed to extra-legal targeting by the Chinese police,
with little to none of the protection theoretically ensured under both national
and international law...
"Openly labeled as overseas police service stations... for example in renewing
Chinese driver's licenses remotely and other tasks traditionally considered of a
consular nature... [the stations] also serve a more sinister goal as they
contribute to 'resolutely cracking down on all kinds of illegal and criminal
activities involving overseas Chinese.'"
The police stations are obviously also used to target Chinese abroad who
disagree with the regime.
"One of the aims of these campaigns, obviously, as it is to crack down on
dissent, is to silence people," Laura Harth, a campaign director with Safeguard
Defenders said. "So people are afraid. People that are being targeted, that have
family members back in China, are afraid to speak out."
Crucially, the police stations operate without the consent and knowledge of the
host countries, such as in the Netherlands, where one of the police stations
operates out of a plain ground-floor apartment in Rotterdam belonging to a small
Chinese handyman business. Several countries, such as Canada, the Netherlands,
the UK, Portugal and Spain, are now investigating the matter and some have
already demanded the closure of the Chinese overseas police stations on their
soil.
"[We] have asked the Chinese ambassador for full clarification on the so-called
police service stations carrying out tasks in the Netherlands on behalf of the
Chinese government," Dutch Foreign Minister Wopke Hoekstra wrote on Twitter.
"As no permission was sought from the Netherlands for this, the ministry has
informed the ambassador that the stations must close immediately. In addition,
the Netherlands itself is also investigating the stations to find out their
exact activities."
In the US, FBI Director FBI director Christopher Wray said that the FBI was
investigating the matter.
"We are aware of the existence of these stations. To me, it is outrageous to
think that the Chinese police would attempt to set up shop, you know, in New
York, let's say, without proper coordination. It violates sovereignty and
circumvents standard judicial and law enforcement cooperation processes."
Wray added that the FBI was "looking into the legal parameters," and stated that
the FBI has opened charges related to Chinese government harassment, stalking,
monitoring and blackmailing Chinese in the US who were critical of China's
President Xi Jinping.
"It's a real problem and something that we're talking with our foreign partners
about, as well, because we're not the only country where this has occurred."
Beijing, not surprisingly, has denied all wrongdoing. "The organizations you
mentioned are not police stations or police service centers," Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian Zhao insisted.
"Their activities are to assist local Chinese citizens who need to apply for
expired driver's license renewal online, and activities related to physical
examination services by providing the venue."
Nevertheless, the Spanish newspaper El Correo quoted an unnamed official from
the Chinese Foreign Ministry in Shanghai, who reportedly acknowledged that the
police stations abroad are part of how China operates:
"The bilateral treaties are very cumbersome, and Europe is reluctant to
extradite to China. I do not see what is wrong with pressurizing criminals so
that they are brought to justice."
Safeguard Defenders has appealed to countries to take swift action against the
Chinese police stations.
"We call on Members of Parliament to raise this issue with their Governments:
ask if and how this practice is being monitored; to what extent such operations
take place in their country, and what measures are being formulated to counter
them. Action needs also be taken to protect a quickly growing Chinese diaspora
in the target countries, unless the latter are content with having a foreign
government police minority groups on their territory, often to the intentional
detriment of the target country and its policies, and aimed at intimidating the
diaspora into obedience to the CCP anywhere in the world. Dedicated reporting
and protection mechanisms must urgently be made available."
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do
not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No
part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied
or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
A US Confession: We Failed With Iran
Elias Harfoush/Asharq Al Awsat/November 02/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113784/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%8a%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%ad%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%88%d8%b4-%d8%a7%d8%b9%d8%aa%d8%b1%d8%a7%d9%81-%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d8%a8%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%b4%d9%84-%d9%85%d8%b9-%d8%a5%d9%8a/
The recent statements that Robert Malley made regarding the nuclear deal
negotiations with Iran should come as no surprise. Since Biden came to office,
the current administration has had its sights on reviving the deal that Donald
Trump had buried. However, as Malley has said himself, diplomacy does not always
bring results. With the current negotiations potentially faltering after a long
series of rounds of negotiation held in the luxurious Palais Coburg in Vienna,
Malley has said that all options are on the table.
However, what is surprising is that speaking openly about the current impasse is
simultaneously a declaration of the failure of the current administration’s
policy. It also shows that the theory that Malley- a conflict resolution expert
keen on appeasing the political movements and parties that do not always support
US policy- has followed is misguided. In fact, a figure like Malley, in the
position he is in, coming to this conclusion means that the foundations on which
the Biden administration’s Iran policies were not sound since the beginning.
This policy was built on a strange framework for prioritizing ties with other
countries, based on wishful thinking. Indeed, the Biden administration bet that
showing Iran good faith would change the latter’s behavior, both domestically
(in terms of how it treats its citizens) and internationally, concerning
armament and interfering in the affairs of the countries of the region, which
has been a pillar of the regime that has always been determined to “export the
revolution.”
As he wrote in an article he published on CNN’s website in September 2020, two
months before the presidential election that propelled him to the White House,
Biden believed there was “a smarter way to be tough on Iran.”
In a "New York Times" interview with the American journalist Thomas Friedman a
week after his election, Biden criticized Trump’s Iran policy. He made two
points. First, he claimed that withdrawing from the deal allowed Iran to enrich
Uranium at higher levels, rendering its nuclear program a graver threat to its
neighbors and US interests. Second, he asserted that the decision to withdraw
from the deal isolated Washington from its allies, who refused to follow its
lead and withdraw as well. He then went on to tell Friedman that he understands
why Iran’s neighbors, especially the Gulf states, are apprehensive about a
return to the policy appeasement pursued by Barack Obama, who totally ignored
them despite that they are the countries closest to and most threatened by his
policy. Biden promised that his administration, on the other hand, would give
them a seat at the negotiating table this time around.
However, the negotiations eventually resumed without the regional allies of the
US, and their positions on the policies of Iran were not taken into
consideration. On the contrary, the US pulling back from countries like Iraq,
Syria and Lebanon strengthened Iran’s influence in these countries, allowing
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to boast of “victories” in these countries
despite the billions spent by the US.
Iran’s resultant triumphalism pushed it to raise the bar, adding the removal of
the IRGC from US terror lists to its demands, which froze the negotiations
between the two countries.
Moreover, Iran did not commit to ending its nuclear program or freezing its
Uranium enrichment- a fact confirmed International Atomic Energy Agency, which
said has recently asserted that Iran is enriching Uranium at 60 percent in its
Fordow Plant. This level of enrichment is close to that needed to produce a
nuclear weapon. In a joint statement by Britain, France and Germany (part of the
P5+1 negotiating with Iran), the Agency said that this step cannot be justified
if the intention to use it for “peaceful purposes”.
However, Tehran sees nuclear armament as a means for strengthing its position in
its clash with the powers of “global arrogance” led by the US. In this frame,
its supposed battle against the US and Western states is Iran’s only concern.
Any opposition is automatically accused of acting as arms for foreign forces
being played by the US. The regime ignores the fact that the protests are
directed at domestic policies and the behavioral norms imposed on society. The
response to Mahsa Amini’s murder and the killing of over 300 citizens attests to
this. Instead of turning his attention to the domestic grievances that propelled
the recent protests, Ali Khamenei congratulated the IRGC on having repressed the
protesters after he had accused the latter of being rioters and terrorists who
do not represent the people of Iran.
That covers the domestic side of things. As for matters tied to foreign policy,
in addition to instilling militias loyal to Iran in neighboring countries where
Khamenei claims he has achieved “victory” and undermined US interests, we also
have the matter of Iranian drones. Iran uses these drones to support its
militias, undermine stability, and terrorize residents. It has also been
exporting them to previously unchartered territory. We saw this in Ukraine,
where Iran intervened on the side of Russia against the Ukrainian people in a
battle that is not its own. It did so to merely make a point, implicating itself
in a war in a country that the “Iranian revolution” cannot be exported to.
Islamic Socrates, or a Prankster?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/November 02/2022
Has the Islamic Republic in Iran fallen into a trap set by a prankster
masquerading as a philosopher?
A new book published in Tehran and praised by officials as “a major
philosophical treatise” may suggest yes as an answer. The book by Islamic
academic Jalal Sobhani, and titled “From The Day Before Yesterday to the Day
After Tomorrow”, is marketed as “a journey in the political thoughts of Ahmad
Fardid.”
Fardid who died in 1994 aged 85 had established himself as the ruling
ayatollahs’ house philosopher with a series of television appearances and
lectures in the 1980s about what he termed “preparations for the return of the
Hidden Imam” at “the end of times”.
As the Khomeinist regime’s pet philosopher he was praised as “the Socrates of
Islam” although his sole resemblance to the Greek sage was his refusal to put
his thoughts on paper.
I came to know Fardid in the early 1970s before the mullahs seized power when we
participated in a series of televised debates in Tehran. He had a sharp sense of
humor and regarded life as a series of games, if not pranks, never to be taken
too seriously. He mocked the mullahs and regarded religion as an attempt to
fence in human imagination and creativity. In 1979, on the eve of the mullahs
seizing power, all those who knew him would have described him as an
anti-clerical, not to say outright anti-religion, thinker.
Claiming that he was “in conversation with Martin Heidegger, a German
philosopher of the Weimar and Nazi eras, one theme he harped on was the quest
for a “strong leader” to give society the moral backbone it needed. Without
saying whom he meant as “the strong leader”, the establishment in Tehran assumed
that he meant the Shah. This was one reason, perhaps, that he became one of
Empress Farah’s favorite philosophers in the so Royal Society of Philosophers.
At the same time, Fardid covered his left flank by warning against liberal
democratic values and coining the phrase “Westoxication” which became a
shibboleth for those who cherish instant-coffee concepts.
The problem was that one could never know when Fardid was serious and when he
was pulling your leg.
Two decades after his death that problem remains. Fardid’s disciples, including
Reza Davari Ardakani and Muhammad-Taqi Givechi
(alias Mesbah-Yazdi) have presented him as a visionary who foresaw the advent of
the Islamic Revolution as a new beginning for mankind.
In his new book, Sobhani goes further by casting Fardid as a propagandist for
the Khomeinist regime’s weirdest illusions.
According to Sobhani, the late “ Socrates of Islam” divided human history into
five epochs: the day before yesterday, yesterday, today, tomorrow and the day
after tomorrow.
According to this reading, the entire creation was a prelude to the messianic
Return of the Hidden Imam (the Mahdi) which will happen in the “day after
tomorrow” episode at the end of times. Led by Ayatollah Khomeini, the Islamic
Revolution marked the beginning of a phase in which Satan is “pushed out of” the
path of humanity and Walayat al-Faqih (rule by the jurisconsult) is established.
Then the “Wali al-Faqih” sets in motion a train that moves towards the final
station where the Hidden Imam boards it. On the way to that destination one
nation after another board the train until all humanity is on board.
That “manifest destiny” is taking shape at a time that the train is run by Grand
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Imam of the Age.
One reviewer recalls that many “true believers” saw the image of the previous
“Imam”, Ayatollah Khomeini, in the full moon just weeks before he returned from
exile in France. Today, the reviewer asserts that those who wish to see
Khamenei’s face must look to the sun where his image “scintillates with greater
force each day.”
According to Sobhani, Fardid regarded “liberal democracy” as the most vicious
enemy of the project to fulfill the “Islamic destiny of mankind”. This is why
the Islamic Republic must face the Western powers with determination, always
with “the finger on the trigger.” This is meant to justify the Islamic
Republic’s growing closeness to Russia and Communist China which, though
repressing their Muslim citizens, compensate for that misdeed by also combating
the West and its liberal democracy.
Having conversed with Fardid on numerous occasions I have a sneaky feeling, if
not an actual conviction that he decided to play one of his devilish jokes on
the mullahs.
Before the mullahs seized power he was content with being described as “ostad”
(master) Ahmad Fardid, a modern man who wore Tyrolean folkloric attire and
advertised his encyclopedic knowledge of oenology. During the 13 months of
turmoil that ended with Khomeini seizing power, when many thought that the
ayatollah may turn out to be a Trojan horse for Marxist-Leninists, Fardid
encouraged his disciples to call him “doktor” (doctor in Persian). Once the
mullahs had won and started killing the Marist-Leninists, Fardid remembered that
he was a descendant of Imam Ali and thus one of the Ahl al-Beit and started
signing himself as “sayyed Ahmad”.
To be fair, Fardid never chased position or money. He lived in a small rented
flat owned by one of our reporters, Ali-Akbar Khayrakhah. Nor did he fall for
the third “oriental obsession”: winning favor with ladies. He lived a life
which, though not Spartan, bore no relations to his status as a celebrity in the
glamour-obsessed pre-revolution in Iran.
Half a century later, one may see Fardid as a born prankster who saw life as a
jumble of beautiful but meaningless and forlorn imperatives beyond our
comprehension. If life were a game why not play games with it? Where better than
philosophy to do that?
Today, Fardid reminds me of Ariel the airy spirit attendant to Prospero in
Shakespeare’s “Tempest”, a master of pranks; magical deeds and practical jokes
that spare no one. Ariel’s secret goal is to gain absolute freedom from all
rules, doctrines and systems. I have a feeling that Fardid mocked both the Shah
and the ayatollah and enjoyed every moment of it in secret.
Islamic Ariel or Islamic Socrates?
Fardid would have laughed at the question. But what would he have said if we
called him the Islamic Archilocus, after ancient Greece’s pioneering cynic?
Even then, from what we know of him, Fardid would have taken the mickey out of
us, too, as he did out of the Empress, the Imam and the “Supreme Guide”.
Is Ankara Mending Fences with Cairo and Damascus?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed//Asharq Al Awsat/November 02/2022
Why were Egypt and Syria at the bottom of the Turkish government’s
reconciliation list?
Turkey seems to be mending fences: the decade-long (and, in Syria’s case,
bloody) conflict between the governments is apparently ending.
The last breakthrough was initiated by Turkish President Erdogan, following the
failure by technical negotiators to reach an agreement on the last remaining
file. Attempts to repair the relations between Cairo and Ankara had been afoot
since the fever of reconciliations took AlUla by storm in early 2021.
The Egyptian and Turkish sides had reached significant agreements, but the
reconciliation was only formally completed at the leadership level during the
World Cup opening ceremony, which brought together Abdelfattal el-Sisi and
Erdogan under Qatari sponsorship. Seated between the two Presidents, the United
Nations Secretary General was far from being a barrier. Both Egypt and Turkey
had probably been preparing this for weeks, choosing the World Cup as the
occasion in honor of Qatar, who served as the mediator between them.
But protocols aside, the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation bears special
significance, given its effect on some of the hottest issues in the region.
The conflict between the two countries had started after Mohammad Morsi’s
government was decisively toppled in 2013. The late President had run the
country with the [Muslim] Brotherhood mindset, which led to the establishment of
a firm alliance between the enraged streets and the military establishment, thus
putting an end to the Muslim Brotherhood’s time in power.
The group’s shunned leaders found in Istanbul their makeshift capital, and from
their new Turkish base, started laying the foundations for what looked like
their project to reclaim power. Cue a diplomatic crisis between the two
countries that only intensified with time.
For a year and a half, the two governments ran a series of meetings aimed at
tackling points of contention, every now and then making great strides at the
security and media levels, with Turkey putting an end to nearly all opposition
activities on its territory. Yet it was still unclear why the two parties failed
to complete the reconciliation, especially in terms of two dossiers: the
disagreement on conflict management in Libya, where each party backs one of the
two warring forces; and the dispute on the territorial waters of the
Mediterranean Sea between Egypt, Greece, and Turkey after the discovery of gas
in what are thought to be large quantities.
Libya is vital for both Egypt’s security and Turkey’s economy, with huge debts
from Gaddafi’s era still waiting to be settled. Therefore, the reconciliation
between the two countries draws its significance from its potential to end the
civil war in Libya, which is reason for optimism in and of itself. The Muslim
Brotherhood, from their opposition halls abroad, will be the ones to pay the
price of such reconciliation.
In contrast, the path towards reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus seems
to be a long and winding road. Even if Erdogan himself goes to Damascus, like he
said he would, reconciliation is still far-fetched given the complexity of the
situation. The two countries have been indirectly engaged in a military war for
a decade.
The Syrian ground is a battlefield for one too many forces: Iranian, Russian,
and American armed forces, multinational militias, remnants of ISIS and al-Qarda,
separatist Turkish Kurds, and the Syrian armed opposition, to count a few. Many
of the regions outside Damascus’ authority still struggle in a continuous
vacuum. Throw into the mix the millions of Syrian refugees and internally
displaced persons, who must be part of any solution.
Everybody wants the conflict to end, but no one knows just how it will.