English LCCC Newsbulletin For Le

English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 02/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.december02.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus said to the Canaanite woman:, “For this saying, go your way. The demon has gone out of your daughter. She went away to her house, and found the child having been laid on the bed, with the demon gone out.
Mark07/24-30/From there he arose and went away into the borders of Tyre and Sidon. He entered into a house and didn’t want anyone to know it, but he couldn’t escape notice. For a woman whose little daughter had an unclean spirit, having heard of him, came and fell down at his feet. Now the woman was a Greek, a Syrophoenician by race. She begged him that he would cast the demon out of her daughter. But Jesus said to her, “Let the children be filled first, for it is not appropriate to take the children’s bread and throw it to the dogs.” 28 But she answered him, “Yes, Lord. Yet even the dogs under the table eat the children’s crumbs. He said to her, “For this saying, go your way. The demon has gone out of your daughter.” She went away to her house, and found the child having been laid on the bed, with the demon gone out.

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on December 01-02/2022
Lebanon MPs again fail to fill vacant presidency
Same old same old: Parliament fails for eighth time to elect a president
European Council approves €6 million in support of Lebanese Army
Report: Macron will visit Lebanon on eve of Christmas
Report: Macron to propose three presidential choices in Biden talks
Report: Doha hasn't been able to open Washington's doors to Bassil
Mikati's intention to convene cabinet rekindles tensions with FPMLF MP accuses Berri of dealing lightly with presidential vote 'obstructors'
LF MP accuses Berri of dealing lightly with presidential vote 'obstructors'
Report: France, US, KSA inch closer to backing Franjieh
Army chief meets Canadian Joint Operations Commander
Berri meets UN High Commissioner for Refugees, receives invitation to visit Armenia
US Department Of The Treasury Imposed Sanctions on Hizballah Accountants and Weapons Facilitator
Lebanese know there is little Macron, Biden can do for them/Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/December 01/2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 01-02/2022
Iranian Security Opens Fire on People Celebrating World Cup Defeat
US Hints at Military Option to Prevent a 'Nuclear Iran'
Pentagon Warns Türkiye Against New Military Operation in Syria
Iran Warns Türkiye Against Launching Military Operation in Syria
Iran Reportedly Asks Iraq to Continue Efforts to Mediate between Regional Countries
Man Reportedly Killed By Iran Cops For Celebrating World Cup Loss Had Ties To Player
Netanyahu Backs Army Against Ben-Gvir
Israel Kills 2 Palestinians, Including Militant Leader, in West Bank
Arab League Denounces Israeli Escalation in Palestine
Putin Must Not Win, But Zelensky Must Not Win Too Much
Satellite images show Russia is making a big gamble on how it plans to defend territory near Crimea from Ukraine
Ukraine has wrecked Russia's invasion plans, and these game-changing weapons have helped them do it
Biden, Macron pledge 'unwavering' alliance, but trade dispute looms

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 01-02/2022
Belgium's World Cup Football Riots: A Symbol of the Failure of the Migration Policy/Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/December 01/2022
A Presidential Trojan Horse: The Inflation Reduction Act/Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/November 30, 2022
On Fundamentalism of the October 17 Revolution!/Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 01/2022
Is Ankara Mending Fences with Cairo and Damascus?/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/November 01/2022
Iran’s problems are caused by the regime’s lack of pragmatism/Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 01, 2022
Today’s Iran protests have echoes of 1979 revolution/Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 01, 2022

on December 01-02/2022
Lebanon MPs again fail to fill vacant presidency
AFP/December 01, 2022
Lebanon has been without a head of state for a month after president Michel Aoun left office at the end of October
BEIRUT: Lawmakers in crisis-hit Lebanon failed to elect a new president on Thursday for an eighth time, despite the deepening impact of the political deadlock on the country’s economic woes.
Lebanon has been without a head of state for a month after president Michel Aoun left office at the end of October with no successor. Parliament is split between supporters of the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah movement and its opponents, neither of whom have a clear majority.
Lawmaker Michel Moawad, who is seen as close to the United States, won the support of 37 lawmakers Thursday — well short of the required majority — while 52 spoilt ballots were cast, mainly by pro-Hezbollah lawmakers. Only 111 of parliament’s 128 lawmakers showed up for the vote. Some MPs wrote in mock choices on their ballots, with one vote cast for Brazil’s leftist president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Parliament is “not shouldering its responsibilities,” charged lawmaker Antoine Habchi of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party opposed to Hezbollah. Electing a president, naming a prime minister and forming a government can take months or even years of political horse-trading. Lebanon can ill-afford a prolonged power vacuum as it grapples with a financial crisis dubbed by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history, with a currency in free fall, severe electricity shortages and soaring poverty rates.
The country’s caretaker government is unable to enact the sweeping reforms demanded by international lenders as a condition for releasing billions of dollars in bailout loans. Hezbollah opposes Moawad’s candidacy, and the Iran-backed group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah called last month for a president ready to stand up to the United States. Moawad has good relations with Washington and has repeatedly called for the disarming of Hezbollah — the only faction to keep its weapons after the end of Lebanon’s 1975-1990 civil war. Former president Aoun’s own election in 2016 followed a more than two-year vacancy at the presidential palace as lawmakers made 45 failed attempts before reaching a consensus on his candidacy. By convention, Lebanon’s presidency goes to a Maronite Christian, the premiership is reserved for a Sunni Muslim and the post of parliament speaker goes to a Shiite Muslim. Parliament is expected to convene for a new attempt to elect a president on December 8.

Same old same old: Parliament fails for eighth time to elect a president
Naharnet/December 01/2022
Parliament convened on Thursday and failed for the eighth attempt to elect a president who will succeed former President Michel Aoun.Fifty two blank votes were cast and MP Michel Mouawad garnered 37 votes, a few votes less than the past sessions. Nine MPs voted for New Lebanon, four for prominent historian and academic Issam khalifeh, and two for former Minister Ziad Baroud. There was nothing new, except for the two new MPs Faisal Karami and pro-reformist candidate Haidar Nasser who attended their first presidential election session. Karami is replacing activist Rami Fanj who had been supporting Mouawad for president, following an appeals process before the country's constitutional council, and Nasser is replacing Alawite MP Firas Salloum. Nasser said he will cast a blank vote. "I voted for Consensus," Karami said after the session. Only 111 of parliament's 128 lawmakers showed up for the vote. Some MPs wrote in mock choices on their ballots, with one vote cast for Brazil's leftist president-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Parliament is split between supporters of Hezbollah and its opponents, neither of whom have a clear majority. The Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party and some change and independent MPs are endorsing Mouawad, while Hezbollah and its allies including Amal and the Free Patriotic Movement are casting blank ballots, as they are calling for dialogue and for a consensual president. LF leader Samir Geagea blamed Tuesday Hezbollah and its allies for the crises gripping the country and said that "dialogue with them is a waste of time." Jumblat responded to Geagea remarks, describing them as absurd. "Talking to all parties is necessary to reach a new president," he said. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri cancelled last month an invitation for a national dialogue that he had called for, following objections from the FPM and the LF. In all eight sessions, Mouawad's tally fell well short of the required majority and was exceeded by the number of blank ballots cast by pro-Hezbollah lawmakers who would leave the session before the second round, causing a lack of quorum. Some MPs say the two-third quorum is not required in the second round of voting, and others accuse Hezbollah and its allies of obstructing the voting for leaving before the second round. Some suggested open sessions until a president is elected. There have been delays in electing previous Lebanese presidents, but the failure to elect a successor to Aoun comes with Lebanon mired in an economic crisis the World Bank has dubbed one of the worst in modern history. Parliament will convene for a ninth attempt to elect a new president on December 8.

European Council approves €6 million in support of Lebanese Army
Naharnet/December 01/2022
The European Council has adopted an assistance measure worth €6 million to the benefit of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). “The assistance measure will enhance the capabilities and the resilience of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) to ensure the national security and stability of Lebanon through the enhancement of their military medical capacities, and the provision of equipment for the LAF’s operational personnel,” the European Peace Facility, which was created in 2021 to support partners around the world in the areas of military and defense, said in a statement. “To achieve this objective, the assistance measure will finance healthcare equipment to support military medical services, and individual equipment,” the statement added. The assistance was requested by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lebanon in October 2022.

Report: Macron will visit Lebanon on eve of Christmas
Naharnet/December 01/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Lebanon in late December, a media report said on Thursday. “Between December 20 and December 22, Macron will hold the Baghdad-2 meeting in Amman in a joint chairmanship with Jordanian King Abdullah II,” informed French sources told Annahar newspaper. The meeting will bring together the leaders of the region’s countries, including Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. “During his presence in the region, Macron will head to Lebanon for a few hours to inspect the troops of the French contingent operating within the UNIFIL force in south Lebanon,” Annahar added.

Report: Macron to propose three presidential choices in Biden talks
Naharnet/December 01/2022
French President Emmanuel Macron who is currently visiting Washington will try to convince U.S. President Joe Biden to separate the Lebanese presidential elections from the Iranian nuclear deal, a diplomatic source in Paris said. The source told Nidaa al-Watan newspaper, in remarks published Thursday, that Macron will discuss with Biden the urgent need to prioritize the presidential election file, suggesting three presidential choices. According to the source, the first choice is Army Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun. The second is reaching a compromise in which Marada leader Suleiman Franjieh would be elected as President, and in return, a Prime Minister from the opposition forces would be appointed. The third choice would be a moderate candidate. The source expected that Macron would get a U.S. green light to continue his mission regarding the Lebanese presidential file and to communicate with Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Report: Doha hasn't been able to open Washington's doors to Bassil
Naharnet/December 01/2022
Free Patriotic Movement chief Jebran Bassil has expressed relief over his “firm relation” with Qatar, its support for him and its efforts to lift the U.S. sanctions off him, a media report said on Thursday. But according to ad-Diyar newspaper, Bassil has said in meetings with his friends that Doha “has not been able until now to open Washington’s doors to him, despite the intervention of (Qatar’s ruler) Emir Tamim.”“The U.S. response was that the measures against Bassil are judicial and no one can interfere in files related to lifting sanctions except through a judicial course,” the daily added. As for the presidential file, Bassil is still rejecting Suleiman Franjieh’s election as president and “has not so far accepted all the advices that have been given to him from allies and friends to ease his stance, although he is stressing the depth of his relation with Hezbollah and coordination in the various fields,” ad-Diyar said.

Mikati's intention to convene cabinet rekindles tensions with FPM
Naharnet/December 01/2022
Reports about caretaker PM Najib Mikati’s inclination to call for a caretaker cabinet session have reignited his standoff with the Free Patriotic Movement, which refuses that any session be held amid the ongoing presidential vacuum. In a statement issued overnight, the FPM had warned that such a session would “violate the constitution,” stressing that it will not “bow to any blackmail.”Ministerial sources linked to the FPM meanwhile told al-Akhbar newspaper that the Movement is inclined to boycott any cabinet session, amid reports that FPM chief Jebran Bassil will hold a meeting soon with the ministers who are close to him and those who are loyal to ex-president Michel Aoun. “The call for a cabinet session would deepen the rift between the FPM and its ally in the government Hezbollah,” informed sources told the daily, adding that the participation of Hezbollah’s ministers in such a session has not been confirmed until the moment. “The Aounists will escalate the situation should Mikati decide to hold a cabinet session,” the sources added. Sources close to Mikati meanwhile said that “the decision to call for a cabinet session has not been taken yet” and that the premier is still mulling “the stances of ministers” over such a session.
The sources, however, added that “Mikati will not back down from this right, because there are living and social matters that require this.”“The mission now is to secure a two-thirds quorum for the session, as per the stipulations of Article 65,” the sources added.

LF MP accuses Berri of dealing lightly with presidential vote 'obstructors'
Naharnet/December 01/2022
Parliament is "not shouldering its responsibilities", charged lawmaker Antoine Habchi of the Lebanese Forces, before an eighth session that failed to elect a new president. Habchi slammed the MPs leaving the session before the second round of voting, saying that "obstruction is not an acquired right."In all eight sessions, pro-Hezbollah lawmakers left the session before the second round, causing a lack of quorum. "The ball is in your court," Habchi told Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, adding that the obstructors are very "close" to the speaker. The remark upset Speaker Berri who responded that among the MPs, he is the most keen to elect a president. Habchi urged Berri to ask the MPs to stay in the session for the second round of voting. "It is a dangerous situation but we're dealing with it very lightly, Habchi said.

Report: France, US, KSA inch closer to backing Franjieh
Naharnet/December 01/2022
There is an “intersection” between the Shiite Duo and the West – represented in the French who are coordinating with the U.S. – over the election of Suleiman Franjieh as president, seeing as he does not represent any provocation to the international community, a media report said on Thursday.
“Some of them consider that the current period requires dialogue, not provocation, and also requires political balance in the Lebanese interior. Accordingly, Franjieh is nearly the only Maronite political figure who embodies this in its performance,” al-Joumhouria newspaper reported. Sources informed on the ongoing domestic and external contacts and consultations meanwhile told the daily that “the United States and France are fully keen on involving the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the process of agreeing on the new Lebanese president.”
The newspaper added that Riyadh is becoming more convinced of the equation calling for a March 8 president and a March 14 premier, noting that this is the result of the “direct French discussions” with the kingdom. The informed sources also told the daily that this equation has made “significant progress behind the scenes of the presidential discussions, especially between France, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah.”

Army chief meets Canadian Joint Operations Commander
NNA/December 01/2022
Lebanese Army Commander, General Joseph Aoun, on Thursday received at his Yarzeh office, Commander of the Canadian Joint Operations Command, Vice Admiral J.r. Auchterlonie, in the presence of Canadian Ambassador to Lebanon, Stefanie Mccollum, and Military Attaché Colonel Gino Chretien.Discussions reportedly touched on cooperation relations between the armies of both countries.

Berri meets UN High Commissioner for Refugees, receives invitation to visit Armenia
NNA/December 01/2022
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Thursday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, the Armenian Ambassador to Lebanon, Vahagn Atabekyan, who handed him a congratulatory letter on the occasion of Lebanon’s Independence Day, from his Armenian counterpart, Alen Simonyan, and an open invitation to visit Armenia. Speaker Berri also met with UN High Commissioner for Refugees, Filippi Grandi, whereby they discussed the general situation, especially the issue of the displaced Syrians. Berri stressed to the UN envoy that "The burdens endured by Lebanon as a result of the displaced Syrians' crisis have become very huge, and they warn of serious consequences for Lebanon and the refugees."

US Department Of The Treasury Imposed Sanctions on Hizballah Accountants and Weapons Facilitator
December 01/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113757/113757/
WASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) took action against two individuals and two companies based in Lebanon for providing financial services to Hizballah, along with an additional individual involved in facilitating weapons procurement for Hizballah. These designations target individuals and companies that manage and enable Hizballah’s overarching financial apparatus operating throughout Lebanon, including Al-Qard Al-Hassan (AQAH) and Hizballah’s Central Finance Unit. U.S.-designated AQAH is Hizballah’s quasi-financial institution, and Hizballah’s Central Finance Unit oversees the terrorist group’s budget within Hizballah’s Executive Council at the direction of Hizballah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
“The individuals and companies being designated today have enabled Hizballah’s financial apparatus operating throughout Lebanon,” said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson. “Their public personae as financial professionals and institutions is just another way Hizballah hides its abuse of the financial system to support its destabilizing agenda.”
Today’s action also underscores how Hizballah remains, at its core, a terrorist organization determined to procure weapons that undermine Lebanon’s security and stability even as the country suffers a dire financial crisis. OFAC is designating these targets pursuant to E.O. 13224, as amended, which targets terrorists, terrorist organizations, leaders and officials of terrorist groups, and those providing support to terrorists or acts of terrorism.
Adel Mohamad Mansour (Mansour)
Mansour is being designated for his position as the leader of AQAH, a U.S.-designated Hizballah-run quasi-financial institution. Mansour has served as the Executive Director of AQAH for years. In addition to his role within AQAH, Mansour has used his personal bank accounts to conduct transactions with various Hizballah institutions.
Al-Khobara for Accounting, Auditing, and Studies (Al-Khobara)
Al-Khobara is being designated for being owned, controlled, or directed by Mansour, who serves as the company’s CEO. Al-Khobara is located in the AQAH building, has provided accounting services to AQAH, and was managed by senior AQAH officials, including Mansour. Other senior officials at Al-Khobara include U.S.-designated senior Hizballah official Hussein al-Shami, who previously headed AQAH and another U.S.-designated Hizballah financial institution, Bayt al-Mal, as well as Ahmad Yazbeck, who was designated in May 2021 for acting for or on behalf of AQAH. For years, Hizballah financial elements have assisted Al-Khobara employees in dealing with Lebanon’s Ministry of Finance regarding tax payments.
Auditors for Accounting and Auditing (Auditors)
Auditors is being designated for being owned, controlled, or directed by Ibrahim Daher (Daher). Daher, who was designated in May 2021 for acting on behalf of Hizballah in his capacity as the chief of Hizballah’s Central Finance Unit, is a majority owner and managing partner of this company and has held a senior managerial function within the company for years. Additionally, Auditors provides financial services to Hizballah’s Central Finance Unit.
Naser Hasan Neser (Neser)
Neser is being designated for having acted or purported to act for or on behalf of Auditors. Neser managed Auditors along with Daher. Neser was a managing partner at Auditors, held minority ownership in the company, and was listed as an authorized signatory, manager, and legal representative of the company. In addition, Neser reports to senior Hizballah Executive Council and Central Finance Unit officials, including Daher, about the activities of Auditors.
Hassan Khalil (Khalil)
Khalil is being designated for having materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services to or in support of, Hizballah. Khalil, a Lebanese national, has been actively working to procure weapons on behalf of Hizballah.
SANCTIONS IMPLICATIONS
As a result of today’s action, all property and interests in property of these persons, which are in the United States or in the possession or control of U.S. persons must be blocked and reported to OFAC. In addition, any entities that are owned, directly or indirectly, 50 percent or more by one or more blocked persons are also blocked. OFAC regulations generally prohibit all dealings by U.S. persons or within the United States (including transactions transiting the United States) that involve any property or interests in property of designated or otherwise blocked persons.
In addition, persons that engage in certain transactions with the persons designated today may themselves be exposed to sanctions or subject to an enforcement action. Furthermore, unless an exception applies, any foreign financial institution that knowingly facilitates a significant transaction or provides significant financial services for any of the targets designated today could be subject to U.S. sanctions.
Additionally, Adel Mohamad Mansour, Al-Khobara for Accounting, Auditing, and Studies, Auditors for Accounting and Auditing, and Naser Hasan Neser, are subject to the Hizballah Financial Sanctions Regulations, which implement the Hizballah International Financing Prevention Act of 2015, as amended by the Hizballah International Financing Prevention Amendments Act of 2018. Pursuant to these authorities, OFAC can prohibit or impose strict conditions on the opening or maintaining in the United States of a correspondent account or a payable-through account by a foreign financial institution that, among other things, knowingly facilitates a significant transaction for Hizballah or certain persons designated for their connection to Hizballah.
The power and integrity of OFAC sanctions derive not only from OFAC’s ability to designate and add persons to the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List (SDN List), but also from its willingness to remove persons from the SDN List consistent with the law. The ultimate goal of sanctions is not to punish but rather to bring about a positive change in behavior. For information concerning the process for seeking removal from an OFAC list, including the SDN List, please refer to OFAC’s Frequently Asked Question 897. For detailed information on the process to submit a request for removal from an OFAC sanctions list, please refer to OFAC’s website.
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1135

خالد ابو ظهر/عرب نيوز : يعرف اللبنانيون جيداً بأن إمكانيات ماكرون وبايدن قليلة جداً في مساعدتهم
Lebanese know there is little Macron, Biden can do for them
Khaled Abou Zahr/Arab News/December 01/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/113753/khaled-abou-zahr-lebanese-know-there-is-little-macron-biden-can-do-for-them-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%af-%d8%a7%d8%a8%d9%88-%d8%b8%d9%87%d8%b1-%d8%b9%d8%b1%d8%a8-%d9%86%d9%8a%d9%88%d8%b2-%d9%8a%d8%b9/
Until a few years ago, the visit of a French president to the US was analyzed in the streets of Beirut as if the entire trip was about the future of Lebanon. The news and insider information would be shared as if Lebanon was the top priority of the summit. Some might add spice to it by stating that the two world leaders had called a local politician to inform him of the outcome. I cannot recall how many times Lebanon buzzed with news of a mythical decision about its fate during summits between the two most powerful countries in the world.
The news would always be in the form of an absolute; a miraculous uplift to the forces of opposition or a catastrophic end. The first formulation would be that they had agreed on removing Hezbollah’s weapons and imposing all the UN resolutions on Syria to make Lebanon a free and independent country. Variations of this news could include regime change in both Syria and Iran and a green light for Israel to strike militarily.
The second formulation would go the absolute opposite way. It would claim that the Western leaders had decided to deliver the country to Hezbollah and Iran. Variations of this version might include that Christians would be relocated elsewhere or that Lebanon was a reward for the nuclear deal that was about to be signed.Depending on the global geopolitical situation and how local forces were positioned each time, people would choose the most plausible version. It would always include a line of truth or the repetition of a past event or conflict resolution somewhere else. Funnily enough, in both there was a constant, which was the recognition of Israel by Lebanon and a peace agreement. Unfortunately or fortunately, there are no absolutes in the Middle East.
This time around, as French President Emmanuel Macron visits his US counterpart, the rumor mill is strangely inactive among the Lebanese. Besides a few headlines, no one is speculating on a change in Lebanon or even that the topic will be seriously mentioned in Washington. Everyone knows that there are much more important topics, starting with the energy situation in Europe and probably ending with a reset of EU-US relations. The Lebanese also notice that they are no longer the favorite international image of modernity and freedom against oppression — they lost this spot to the Ukrainians.
This loss of priority on the global stage mirrors the general mood of the Lebanese domestically. It is a mood of renunciation. Moreover, the de facto situation resembles the second outcome of an Iranian occupation. And despite the fact that Lebanese and their state are even more under the thumb of Hezbollah, they are silent regarding this oppression. Despite the fact that the economic, financial, social and healthcare situation is catastrophic, they are silent against the ones responsible. It is as if they have given up on resisting and fighting this occupation. Despair has set in.
One could have imagined that the protests in Iran might ignite something in Lebanon. This has not been the case. It is maybe because they have tried this route many times, every time unsuccessfully. This is the ruthlessness of the occupation; it removes even the light of hope. And hope is the engine of change, not despair. Protests against Hezbollah from its own community, even if it is suffering as much as all the others, cannot and will not happen. The balance between minorities acts as a protection even there.
This time around, as the French president visits his US counterpart, the rumor mill is strangely inactive
Nothing shows the desperation better than the series of bank holdups and sit-ins by ordinary people. They have to become criminals to reclaim their own deposits. The objective is no longer to build a better future, fight for freedom or any such grandiose goal. It is only to survive; to get through the next day; to be able to put food on the table and give proper healthcare to their loved ones.
This is happening at a critical time, as the country is in the process of choosing its next president. The continuous deadlock and stalling have been artificially created by Hezbollah. While Lebanese despair, Hezbollah is looking to silence any potential threat to its dominance once and for all. And there is the broader fear of Hezbollah backing its ally the Free Patriotic Movement against Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces as a way to achieve its goals. Also, as Hezbollah’s patron Iran is cornered domestically, increasing its hold on the Mediterranean for leverage makes even more sense.
And so, beyond declarations and expressions of sympathy, there is little that the Lebanese expect from Macron or US President Joe Biden. They now understand that there is little change they could bring to their situation. Yet, they are still dreaming and waiting for the absolute geopolitical bullet that will save them. Just as they dream that the gas deal with Israel will solve the economic situation and bring back their deposits. This adds to their despair.
This is a grave mistake. Not one historical cycle that Lebanon has gone through has brought them this deliverance. And in practice, all the gas deal has achieved is to increase Hezbollah’s status, much like most agreements with Israel. So, the only lesson we can learn from all these cycles and other arenas is that the outcome is decided on the ground in Lebanon and not in international capitals.
• Khaled Abou Zahr is chief executive of Eurabia, a media and tech company, and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on December 01-02/2022
Iranian Security Opens Fire on People Celebrating World Cup Defeat
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/December, 01/2022
A human rights organization confirmed that at least one person was killed in the renewed Iranian protests, early on Wednesday, as Iranians took to the streets to celebrate the defeat of the their national football team in front of the United States. Several Iranian cities witnessed protests to celebrate the exit of the Iranian national team from the World Cup. Reports noted that the Iranian national team players were subjected to pressure from officers in the Revolutionary Guard after their first match against England, which they lost by six goals. The Iranian team tried to restore some of its balance in the match with Wales, winning 2-0, before being defeated by the US and eliminated from the world tournament. After the defeat of the team, which some Iranians called the “national team of the Islamic Republic”, residents in north and west Tehran chanted slogans against the regime, while numerous videos on social networks showed the celebrations in roads and residential neighborhoods. The Oslo-based Iran Human Rights confirmed the killing of Mahran Sammak, 27, during a festive gathering in the port of Anzali in the north of the country, noting that he was wounded in the head after security forces opened fire on the demonstrators. Reports said he was hit while driving his car. Meanwhile, documents obtained by hackers from an agency affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard revealed that 84 percent of Iranians believe that the protests were the way out of the current situation. The Black Reward group sent a number of secret letters, statements and recordings obtained from Fars agency. One of the documents refers to a confidential news brief prepared by the agency for the commander of the Guard, Hossein Salami, and contains internal news, official statements and figures, including statistics on the protests. The report says that 84 percent of Iranians believe that the protests are the way out of the current situation, and 56 percent believe that the demonstrations should continue. Fifty-one percent of Iranians demand “the freedom of the veil.”

US Hints at Military Option to Prevent a 'Nuclear Iran'
Washington - Ali Barada/Asharq Al Awsat/November 01/2022
US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley revealed on Wednesday that President Joe Biden was ready to resort to the military option to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon in case sanctions and diplomacy failed. Speaking to Foreign Policy, Malley hinted at several measures.
“We will have the sanctions; we will have the pressure; [and] we will have the diplomacy… If none of that works, the President has said, as a last resort, he will agree to a military option, because if that’s what it takes to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, that’s what will happen. But we’re not there,” the US envoy said. He added that the Biden administration was still hopeful Iran would change its current path. Malley noted that the indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran stopped after Iran made additional demands that had nothing to do with the essence of the nuclear agreement. The US envoy for Iran has recently reiterated that Washington no longer saw Tehran’s nuclear program as separate from other issues. “Our focus on the agreement is not moving forward”, in light of the widespread popular protests taking place in Iran and the “brutal repression of the regime against the protesters,” he remarked. After pointing to Iran’s selling of armed drones to Russia, Malley stressed his country’s commitment to “liberating our hostages,” referring to the three American citizens held in Iran. For his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the Iranian regime “profoundly” misunderstands its citizens by blaming external parties for the protests that have swept the country since mid-September. “What’s happening in Iran is first and foremost about Iranians, about their future, about their country. And it’s not about us,” Blinken told CNN. “And one of the profound mistakes that the regime makes is to try to point the finger at others, at the United States, Europeans, claiming that we’re somehow responsible for instigating or otherwise fanning the flames of the protests. That is to profoundly, fundamentally misunderstand their own people.”The US Secretary of State noted that the world “is rightly focused on what’s happening in the streets in Iran,” adding that the US has worked to ensure the Iranian people have “the communications technology that they need to continue to communicate with one another and stay connected to the outside world.”“There are other steps that we’re taking diplomatically, across international organizations and with many other countries, to make clear how the world sees the repression that’s going on in Iran, to try to hold down those who are simply trying to peacefully express their views,” he told the channel.

Pentagon Warns Türkiye Against New Military Operation in Syria
Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 01 December, 2022
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday told his Turkish counterpart of his "strong opposition" to a new Turkish military operation in Syria and voiced concern over the escalating situation in the county, the Pentagon said. Austin, in the call, expressed condolences over a Nov. 13 attack in Istanbul, the Pentagon said. "He also expressed concern over escalating action in northern Syria and Türkiye, including recent airstrikes, some of which directly threatened the safety of US personnel who are working with local partners in Syria to defeat ISIS," it said in a statement, Reuters reported. "Secretary Austin called for de-escalation, and shared the Department's strong opposition to a new Turkish military operation in Syria."

Iran Warns Türkiye Against Launching Military Operation in Syria
London, Brussels – Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 01 December, 2022
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and his Turkish counterpart, Mevlut Cavusoglu, in a phone conversation, exchanged views on the latest border developments and military conflicts between Türkiye and Syria. During the talks, Amirabdollahian said Iran understands Türkiye's security concerns and stressed the need to end them. However, Amirabdollahian said that "achieving that goal necessitates constant security talks between the two countries, said the Iranian foreign minister, adding that a resort to ground military operations will not only fail to solve the problems but will cause damage and complicate the situation."According to the German news agency, the Iranian foreign minister also expressed Tehran's readiness to provide any assistance to reach a political solution to the existing problems between Türkiye and Syria. For his part, Cavusoglu explained his country's position on the current situation in Syria, describing Iran's role as "constructive." Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on Türkiye to refrain from any ground invasion of northern Syria or military strikes against the north of Iraq, according to Reuters. Turkish officials said Monday that its forces need just days to be ready for a ground incursion into northern Syria, which they have been attacking with long-range weapons and warplanes for days. "I have urgently appealed (Türkiye) to refrain from measures that would further escalate violence – such as a potential ground invasion of northern Syria or military action in northern Iraq," Baerbock said on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Bucharest. Turkey's bombardments of a Kurdish militia across the border in Syria come after months of threats by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of a new ground invasion against Kurdish forces, which he considers to be terrorists. "International law applies, of course, when it comes to the protection against acts of terrorism," Baerbock said. Syria sees Turkey as an occupying force in its north, and Damascus has said it would consider any new Turkish incursions to be "war crimes."

Iran Reportedly Asks Iraq to Continue Efforts to Mediate between Regional Countries
Baghdad/Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 01 December, 2022
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has met with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and discussed strengthening political and economic relations. An official Iraqi source said Wednesday that Tehran had asked Sudani to stick to Iraq's role in bringing views between regional countries closer. On Tuesday, Sudani arrived in Tehran on an official visit where he met senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi. Sudani's media office said the meeting with Amir-Abdollahian discussed the bilateral ties and their development, affirming Iraq's pivotal regional role and its efforts to strengthen security and stability. The meeting addressed boosting economic and trade relations through constructive cooperation and partnership. The source indicated that the Iranian leaders assured their full support for the new Iraqi cabinet to overcome obstacles.
He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the meetings addressed border safety, including the security between the Kurdistan region, Iran, and Iranian opposition bases, noting that they agreed on coordinating on drug control, among other topics such as economy and trade. Iran requested that Iraq continued its role in the region to bring different views closer, according to the source. Under the former cabinet, Iraq sponsored an Iranian-Saudi dialogue and held five rounds of dialogue between Riyadh and Tehran. Iraq was preparing to complete the diplomatic aspect of the dialogue, but the leaders were busy with the government formation. Professor of political science at al-Nahrain University Amer Hassan Fayyad said that Iraq can continue to mediate, noting that it enjoys a unique position among Arab and regional countries, especially in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Fayyad told Asharq Al-Awsat that Iran is aware that only Iraq can mediate with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia. Iraq can also mediate between Iran and the US, said Fayyad.

Man Reportedly Killed By Iran Cops For Celebrating World Cup Loss Had Ties To Player
AP/December 1, 2022
An Iranian man was shot dead after honking his car in support of the U.S. win after Tuesday’s match in the city of Bandar Anzali in northwest Iran. Oslo-based Iran Human Rights reported he was “shot in the head by state forces when he went out to celebrate the Islamic Republic’s loss.”The victim, Mehran Samak, 27, was a childhood friend of Iranian midfielder Saeed Ezatolahi (also spelled Saeid by some outlets), who mourned his death on social media and shared a photo of them as teammates when they were children. Saeid Ezatolahi is consoled after the loss to the United States at the World Cup. But Ezatolahi received criticism from activists for not explicitly stating Samak was killed by government forces. Iranian celebrities have been targeted by the government with arrest or other measures for speaking out on behalf of protesters, who have continued to demonstrate following the police custody death of a woman arrested for wearing her hijab too loosely in September. Iranian officials acknowledged but downplayed compatriots celebrating the U.S. win. Gen. Hossein Salami, chief of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said those who had celebrated were doing so on “behalf of the enemies,” adding “it is not important to us.” His comments appeared in the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Iran was eliminated from the tournament in Qatar following the loss to the U.S. on Tuesday that saw the players scrambling to score a goal in the last remaining minutes of the game. Striker Sardar Azmoun told reporters he was not satisfied with his performance in the last match.

Netanyahu Backs Army Against Ben-Gvir
Ramallah - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 December, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister-designate Benjamin Netanyahu has joined the critics of Ultra-nationalist Jewish Power leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, calling for Israel's military to be "left out of any political argument". "The Israeli army is the people's army, I call on everyone, right and left, to leave it out of any political debate," Netanyahu tweeted. His tweet was in response to Ben-Gvir’s criticism of a decision by Israel’s army to sentence soldiers who taunted activists in the West Bank city of Hebron last week. "We will not allow intervention by any politician, left or right, in commanders' decisions, nor use of the military to promote a political agenda," Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi slammed Ben-Gvir. Ben-Gvir responded to Kohavi, saying that he respected him, but “I would expect from the chief of staff that just as he demanded that a soldier not express himself politically, he himself would refrain from political statements.” Earlier, the army arrested several soldiers who assaulted activists in Hebron and threatened them that when Ben-Gvir is assigned to the ministry of public security the rule will be imposed. A soldier told an activist, “I am the law… Ben-Gvir is going to sort things out in this place.”“The fun is over,” the soldier added. Another footage showed a soldier tackling an activist to the ground, punching him in the face, and pointing a weapon against him. Ben-Gvir said that there was nothing unacceptable about the soldier’s behavior and asked to visit him in the military prison on Wednesday. For its part, the army reiterated that the Givati Brigade soldiers who beat and cursed at left-wing activists in Hebron on Friday were found at fault. “The violent behavior toward the civilian was unacceptable… and the soldier is not permitted to express himself in a belligerent manner while expressing a political affiliation,” the army added.

Israel Kills 2 Palestinians, Including Militant Leader, in West Bank
Asharq A-Awsat/Thursday, 1 December, 2022
Israeli forces killed two Palestinian militants during an arrest raid Thursday in the occupied West Bank, according to the military and the Islamic Jihad militant group. The Palestinian Health Ministry identified the men as Naeem Jamal Zubaidi, 27, and Mohammad Ayman Saadi, 26 and said they were killed in a pre-dawn raid in the Jenin refugee camp. The military said Saadi was a prominent Islamic Jihad member while Zubaidi was involved in shooting attacks against Israeli troops. Islamic Jihad said the two men were members. The military said troops were carrying out an arrest raid and were met by gunfire. The forces responded, and the two men were killed in the exchange of fire. The Palestinian Health Ministry said 210 Palestinians have been killed this year, including those who died during a brief conflict in Gaza in August. They included militants and civilians.

Arab League Denounces Israeli Escalation in Palestine
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Thursday, 1 December, 2022
The Arab League (AL) has condemned the recent Israeli escalation in Palestine. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit warned in a press release on Wednesday against targeting and killing Palestinians in cold blood. He called on the international community to intervene to protect the civilians in the occupied territories and to stop the Israeli “killing machine.”The secretary-general’s spokesman, Jamal Rushdie, noted that the violence has increased since the beginning of this year. In his statement published on the AL website, Rushdie said five Palestinians were killed in separate incidents by Israeli orces on Tuesday. Aboul Gheit linked the systematic escalation to the rise of the Israeli right wing and its dominance over Israeli politics. He warned that “highly extremist members” have preoccupied the political scene in Israel, warning that this could have “dangerous” consequences. The secretary-general considered that jeopardizing the Palestinians’ security and depriving them of any political prospect could ignite the situation in a manner “that serves no one”. His statement came amid the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian people which falls on November 29. The Arab League witnessed several events on this occasion in addition to the release of official statements from the UN and some countries calling for relaunching the peace talks between the Palestinians and Israel.

Putin Must Not Win, But Zelensky Must Not Win Too Much
Josef Joffe/Time/December 01, 2022
In the first phase of the War, the Russians made it to the outskirts of Kyiv, and Ukraine looked a goner. In phase two just four weeks later, the victim was on a roll, regaining some thousand settlements while decimating an outclassed foe slugging it out far from home. Now act three, which opened with a miraculous Ukrainian victory that drove the Russians from Kherson, a first-rate strategic prize in the south. But the stage may soon darken.
Sure, the Ukrainians continue to dominate the battlefield thanks to superior motivation and massive injections of Western cash and arms. They are fighting for survival whereas Russians are bolting by the hundred-thousands to escape the draft.
Ukraine’s jubilant President Volodymyr Zelensky now faces a threat that was always lurking in the background. It comes from his big-hearted friends in the West. In November, Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, met with his Russian counterpart for a “confidential conversation,” which the administration promptly leaked as a message to Kyiv. They probably discussed the “compromise” Joe Biden would broach after the fall of Kherson. Of course, the President was “not going to tell [the Ukrainians] what they have to do.” But the hint is hard to miss. Reining in a client is what great powers do to avoid entrapment in a deadly conflict, in this case with a wild-eyed Russian adversary backed by an overkill arsenal.
That Vladimir Putin would unleash nuclear weapons was never credible. Start with a single tactical weapon, and you end up with a catastrophic strategic duel. Even in a pre-nuclear age, fabled Prussian strategist Carl von Clausewitz warned against taking the “first step without considering what may be the last.” During the Cuban Missile Crisis, John F. Kennedy cribbed from Clausewitz: “It isn’t the first step that concerns me, but both sides escalating to the fourth and fifth, and we don’t go to the sixth because there is no one around to do so.”
If Putin were serious, U.S. intelligence would know. It would see tactical warheads being hauled out of their tightly guarded bunkers to marry them to delivery vehicles like missiles and planes. These systems would disperse. Coded communications would rise above normal. But it does not end here. Putin would have to take out strategic insurance and place his intercontinental weapons on a war footing. His risk soars because the U.S. would go to DEFCON 2: ICBMS and ballistic submarines ready to go in six hours. At this stage, misperception and miscalculation could trigger strategic war.
Putin has carefully avoided these steps. NATO has warned him, and so have even his so-so allies, the Chinese: “Nuclear wars must not be fought.”
Still, Putin’s threats did rattle the West. Who would want to die for Kyiv? Or freeze while Russia is cutting gas to Europe to a trickle? Paris and Berlin have tried to mediate from day one. Western leaders may be tiring of the war after nine months. In the U.S., Republican opposition to America’s entanglement is rising. Paradoxically, the angst reflects too much of a good thing. Ukraine’s victories might trigger unbounded Russian revenge, whatever the cost. But the strategic realities may be tilting against Kyiv. In this third act, those brave Ukrainians may not easily duplicate their amazing advances during the second.
Why not? As the Russians pull back into fortified positions, they profit from their short “interior lines,” as Clausewitz had it. To dislodge dug-in troops is harder than to outwit an invader out in the open. As rule of thumb, it takes a 3-to-1 manpower advantage to overcome tank traps, bunkers, and sheltered artillery farther back. President Biden has subtly put his Kyiv counterpart on notice: Time to start talking to Putin. About what—a cease-fire? About accepting Russia’s landgrab in the Southeast prior to its full-scale invasion on 24 February?
Cold-eyed strategists would counsel: “Not so fast, Mr. President!” An armistice always favors the faltering side. A pause would allow the Russians to consolidate with fresh troops and materiel. Why then would Putin match Kyiv’s restraint instead of preparing for a counter-offensive during the lull?
Past Russian behavior is not reassuring. After annexing Crimea and occupying the Donbas region in 2014, Moscow pledged to respect a cease-fire in the southeast and to withdraw heavy weapons. It would honor Ukraine’s sovereignty there and engage in a political process. Instead, Moscow kept Russifying the Donbas and then invaded the rest of Ukraine. Reluctant to arm the victims, the West responded with sanctions after 2014. To Putin, the reticence signaled: Go while the going is good.
What should the West want to accomplish above and beyond serving a compelling moral imperative. It is to save an innocent nation from depredation last seen in World War II when Nazi armies systematically slaughtered civilians. Alas, humanitarian duty is an unreliable guide in statecraft. Self-serving interest comes first. So, let’s look beyond morality and consider the political imperative. At stake is a 77-years old European order that had at last done away with rape and ruin. The rule was: rivalry and balance yes, imperial conquest no. Putin’s Russia, though, is a revisionist power out to overturn a salutary status quo. He wants a certified sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and the revival of the old Soviet empire, as he keeps repeating.
The strategy is opportunistic—push your pawns forward where the risks are calculable, as they were in Georgia, Crimea and in the Donbas. Who will be next if Western resolve falters? Assume, the U.S. and its allies leash Zelensky by tightening the flow of arms. The Kremlin would conclude that it is safe to crush Ukraine with high-flying jets, missiles, and long-range artillery. The prize would be gain without pain. This is the deadly dilemma for the West. Putin must not win, but Zelensky must not win too much. Right now, while Ukraine is advancing and Russia is flailing, negotiations will not soon bring about a lasting settlement. So how to crack the dilemma? Only the principle is easy to lay out. The West is not doing the Ukrainians a one-sided favor by helping them to drive back Putin. The beleaguered nation also happens to fight for a precious European system unhinged by Russian expansionism. So, Ukraine is returning the favor big-time by defying him. It is also defending the rest of the West. The point is not to dethrone Putin, which only his own people can do. It is to sober him up and to deter adventurism over the long haul. Crimea is presumably lost. But conceding his other conquests in this third act, would embolden him. On the global level, other ambitious revisionists like China and Iran are watching.

Satellite images show Russia is making a big gamble on how it plans to defend territory near Crimea from Ukraine
Jake Epstein/Business Insider/December 1, 2022
In the wake of its recent humiliating defeat in Kherson, a key southern city that was under Russian occupation since the early days of the war, Russia is now gambling big on how it intends to defend against further Ukrainian advances.
Recent satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Insider show multiple Russian defensive positions in the eastern Kherson region, above the occupied Crimean peninsula, as Moscow tries to hold ground in the face of Ukraine's rolling battlefield successes.
Russian defensive positions have been built along critical ground lines of communication like roads and highways and connect Russian forces at the Dnipro River with other occupied areas to the southeast, like Crimea and the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, according to an assessment this week from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank. These positions exist in the form of trenches and dragon's teeth anti-tank defenses, the ISW assessment said, referring to a decades-old strategy consisting of hardened fortifications that are built to slow and stop heavy armor. But instead of connecting communication lines across the battlefield, the positions appear more like "elaborate roadblocks" that don't stray too far from the roads or into the fields. ISW assesses that the defensive positions indicate that Russian military leadership is concerned that Ukrainian forces could advance across the Dnipro River and into the lower Kherson region. The nature of these positions is a gamble, however, because while Russia is focusing on defending roads and highways, it is ignoring the real possibility that Ukraine could advance across open terrain. Ukraine's tanks and tracked vehicles could cut through fields and bypass them or assault the Russian positions from their more vulnerable flanks. "They are not arrayed in such a way to create necessarily long, coherent defensive lines that cut across cross-country into the fields and things of that nature," George Barros, an expert with the ISW, told Insider. This "suggests that the Russians expect that they have vulnerabilities on the road and the highways, and they're not expecting a cross-country drive." Given the "battlefield geometry" and how the positions are set up, Russian forces may also be vulnerable to Ukrainian encirclement if they're able to advance from the eastern and western flanks in southern Kherson, Barros said. Additionally, Ukraine could use precision strikes to threaten Russia's communication lines. Beyond this, Barros said that in establishing these defensive lines, Russian forces are also limiting themselves in their ability to conduct offensive operations in the area. It remains to be seen exactly how Ukraine will build off its success in retaking Kherson — a counteroffensive that began months ago and went hand-in-hand with lightning-fast advances in the country's northeastern Kharkiv region. Since late summer, advancing Ukrainian forces have managed to liberate thousands of square miles of territory from under Russian occupation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously and repeatedly vowed to expel Russian troops from the entirety of Ukraine's territory, including Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. On Thursday, a top Ukrainian military official said Russia does not plan to relinquish territory adjacent to the occupied Crimean peninsula, signaling that a tough fight lies ahead given Russia's reluctance to abandon these holdings. Brig. Gen. Oleksiy Hromov, the deputy chief of the main operational department at the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told reporters, per state news agency Ukrinform, that "the priority of the Russian Federation remains to maintain positions in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as the land corridor to the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea."

Ukraine has wrecked Russia's invasion plans, and these game-changing weapons have helped them do it
Business Insider/Thu, December 1, 2022
Throughout Russia's nine-month-long war in Ukraine, Western countries and NATO allies have outfitted Kyiv's forces with various weapons and systems to help them not only stop enemy forces from advancing but at times actually drive them back.
Among these weapons are shoulder-launched anti-tank weapons, unmanned combat aerial vehicles, and mobile rocket launchers — game-changing systems that have helped Ukraine derail Russian President Vladimir Putin's campaign, whether it was defending Kyiv in the early spring or keeping Russian forces at bay in eastern Ukraine over the summer. The US is the largest provider of security assistance for Ukraine. According to a November 23 Pentagon assessment, the Biden administration has committed over $19 billion in military aid since Moscow invaded on February 24. The next-highest contributor is the UK, which has committed £2.3 billion ($2.7 billion) as of early November. Additional sources of firepower committed to Ukraine include Germany, Turkey, Australia, and Canada, among others.
"There's been several weapons systems that Western security partners of Ukraine have provided that have played a crucial role," George Barros, an expert with Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War, told Insider. "If it were not for Western security assistance to Ukraine, Russia would've already won the war."Here are some of the game-changing weapons that have helped Ukraine spoil Putin's invasion plans and even turn the tides of the war. During the early stages of the war, invading Russian forces quickly advanced on the Ukrainian capital city, Kyiv, after Russia spent months of gathering troops and equipment along the border. In the face of stiff Ukrainian resistance, Putin's troops were, however, forced to withdraw from the region and refocus their efforts on eastern Ukraine.
In the early stages of the war, shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles — like the UK-provided Next Generation Light Anti-tank Weapon (NLAW) and US-provided FGM-148 Javelin — became crucial tools for Ukraine to defend against approaching armor and tanks. These weapons were "very important to provide individual Ukrainian soldiers firepower to be able to defeat Russian armor as they were approaching during the initial phase of the invasion," Barros said.
The Pentagon estimates that Russia has lost half its main battle tanks in Ukraine.
Another important shoulder-launched weapon was the FIM-92 Stinger, which is an American-made portable air-defense system. These weapons, Barros said, were capable of downing Russian helicopters and aircraft conducting airborne assault operations.
Among some other systems, such as artillery systems, these three lightweight weapons helped Ukrainian forces defend Kyiv and other regions in the early days of the war.
Small arms and ammunition
Although they have received far less attention than some other weapon systems, certain small arms and their ammunition were critical for Ukraine early on in the war. These weapons were used to arm members of the Ukrainian armed forces and territorial defense units, as well as some civilians.
"It's not a sophisticated system or anything like that, and it's not uniformly standard, but that aid was very important during the initial phase of the invasion as well, because it was very unclear exactly how far the Russian invaders would get," Barros said.
According to the Department of Defense, the US so far has committed over 11,000 grenade launchers and small arms, as well as more than 104,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition.
Kyiv's forces have used a variety of small arms, some from the West and some of alternative origin. These include rifles, submachine guns, light machine guns, sniper rifles, and handguns manufactured domestically and also abroad in Austria, Israel, and even Russia.
By contrast, many Russian reservists troops have arrived in Ukraine with what Western intelligence has called "barely usable" rifles. Some carry Soviet-era weaponry, which Britain's defense ministry previously said was kept in poor storage conditions.
As the war in Ukraine pivoted to a new phase, one of brutal artillery battles and grinding attrition in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, the Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone became a decisive weapon for Kyiv's forces, though it also saw successes early on.
This famed unmanned combat aerial vehicle — which saw action aiding Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict — has been highly regarded by global militaries and even had a multi-year-long wait to obtain one. These systems became legends in Ukraine, even inspiring songs that went viral.
The TB2 drone allowed the Ukrainians to carry out precision strikes and target vulnerable Russian positions and have been used to destroy military equipment like tanks, howitzers, and infantry fighting vehicles.
For example, the TB2 was used successfully during Ukraine's efforts to recapture Snake Island in the Black Sea, where ground communication lines were unavailable. The drones were used to target occupying Russian forces, who eventually decided that they could no longer hold their positions.
Barros said that "this is a tactic that, frankly, the Ukrainians have used very effectively ever since they've had access to precision munitions that are capable of striking deep into critical vulnerable Russian areas."
In the late summer, Ukraine launched a lightning-fast counter offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region — liberating thousands of square miles of territory previously occupied by Russian forces.
One weapon that helped here was the US-supplied AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile (HARM), an air-to-surface missile that can hunt and target enemy radar systems.
Ukraine used these missiles to threaten and hamstring Russian air-defense radars and systems, before going on to deploy tactical aircraft in what Barros described as a "limited but effective capacity."
"The Ukrainians," he said, "were able to use the HARM missile to strike Russian air defense assets in the Kharkiv area of operations. Not a lot of people talk about the HARM, but it's sort of a very specific tool for a very specific job, and the Ukrainians were also able to use that well."
Perhaps the most prominent of Ukraine's game-changing weapons is the US-provided High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
These systems, which were much-sought-after by Kyiv, are long-range and high-precision rocket launchers capable of striking targets up to 50 miles away with the munitions provided by the US, though they have the ability to strike farther. With GPS-guided rockets, these weapons have been able to target Russian command posts, ammunition depots, and bridges. Ukraine celebrated the arrival of the HIMARS in June, and the systems quickly became revered among top Ukrainian officials and the country's armed forces because they were so effective at a time when the war was a fast becoming a WWI-style artillery duel. The HIMARS gave Ukraine range beyond the M777 Howitzers provided by the US earlier in the conflict.
"The HIMARS stopped the bleeding in eastern Ukraine with regards to the rolling Russian offensive that was picking up steam in sort of late spring, early summer," Barros said, pointing to two specific examples where these weapons proved to be a "game changer" on the battlefield.
When the HIMARS arrived in Ukraine, Russian forces were relying on an artillery superiority to obliterate Ukrainian defensive positions in various small towns. They would then press forward into the area and "slowly sort of systematically grind their way" deeper into Ukraine, Barros said.
For this to work, Russia needed lots of artillery near their firing positions, Barros added. But Ukraine was able to use their HIMARS to target Russian ammunition depots that were providing Moscow with the consistent artillery ammunition needed to sustain a high volume of firepower.
HIMARS also played an important role during Ukraine's campaign to retake territory in the southern Kherson region, Barros said. There, Kyiv used this weapon to successfully strike a handful bridges — cutting off bands of Russian troops and creating a logistical headache for Putin.According to an assessment of the war by the UK-based Royal United Services Institute, the introduction of the HIMARS — as well as the US-made M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System — into Ukraine "can be seen as the point where the Russian offensive on Donbas ended and the war entered a new phase."

Biden, Macron pledge 'unwavering' alliance, but trade dispute looms
Agence France Presse/December 01/2022
President Joe Biden greeted President Emmanuel Macron at the White House on Thursday with full-scale military honors and a pledge to uphold the "unwavering" U.S.-French alliance ahead of talks on Ukraine, China and a looming trade dispute. Service members from the marines, army, air force and even a detachment of soldiers in 18th century Revolutionary War garb paraded in front of the White House. Artillery fired off a 21-gun salute, sending puffs of white smoke into the clear, chilly December sky. Standing on a red-carpeted podium with Macron, Biden said "France is our oldest ally, our unwavering partner in freedom’s cause."Like Biden, Macron noted that the two countries had stood side by side through many wars. Referring to the Western alliance helping Ukraine to confront the Russian invasion, Macron said "we need to become brothers in arms once more." The two presidents then met in the Oval Office for discussions on Ukraine, handling the rise of China and European fears that Biden's economic policies will lead to a trade war. Biden and Macron were then to give a joint press conference before winding up the day with a lavish dinner featuring French favorites of wine and cheese -- but in both cases American-made.
Subsidies dispute
The visit symbolizes how Washington and Paris have buried last year's bitter spat over the way Australia pulled out of a French submarine deal in favor of acquiring US nuclear subs instead. However, Macron has made clear, in unusually blunt language, that he is not just in Washington for the niceties. On his first day of the visit Wednesday, when he toured NASA headquarters, Arlington National Cemetery and met US lawmakers, the French leader surprised his hosts with a bitter attack on Biden's signature policy to boost the US green economy, saying it would "kill" European jobs. On Thursday, right before arriving at the White House, he repeated his criticism in an ABC television interview where he said Biden's policy would remove "a level playing field." The legislation, called the Inflation Reduction Act or IRA, is set to pour billions of dollars into environmentally friendly industries, with strong backing for US-based manufacturers. The White House touts the IRA as a groundbreaking effort to reignite US manufacturing and promote renewable technologies. However, European Union governments are crying foul, threatening to launch a trade war by subsidizing their own green economy sector. "The consequence of the IRA is that you will perhaps fix your issue but you will increase my problem. I'm sorry to be so straightforward," Macron said on Wednesday, warning Biden could "split the West." The White House responded by insisting that European companies have nothing to fear from the IRA. US advances in the clean energy economy will help Europeans too, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said. The IRA "presents significant opportunities for European firms as well as benefits to EU energy security. This is not a zero-sum game."
Menu and music
Aside from the trade dispute fireworks, most of the visit revolves around kindling the long, if often slightly prickly U.S.-French diplomatic friendship. On Wednesday evening, Macron and his wife Brigitte joined Biden and First Lady Jill Biden at an upscale Washington Italian restaurant. The state dinner at the White House will return grand-scale entertainment to Washington in a way not seen since the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the capital's typically busy schmoozing scene. Grammy-award-winning American musician Jon Batiste will perform at the banquet, which the White House said will kick off with butter-poached Maine lobster, paired with caviar, delicata squash raviolo and tarragon sauce. The main course features beef and triple-cooked butter potatoes, before leading to the cheese course of award-winning U.S. brands, and finally orange chiffon cake, roasted pears with citrus sauce and creme fraiche ice cream.
Washing all that down will be three different wines -- all from US vineyards.
China high on agenda
Trade tensions, however, are only part of the uncomfortable flip side to the red carpet occasion. Another gripe in Europe is the high cost of US liquid natural gas exports -- which have surged to help compensate for canceled Russian deliveries. There is also divergence on how to deal with the rise of superpower China. The question -- with Washington pursuing a more hawkish tone and EU powers trying to find a middle ground -- is unlikely to see much progress. "Europe has since 2018 its own, unique strategy for relations with China," tweeted French embassy spokesman Pascal Confavreux in Washington. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said China will be "very high on the agenda" this week but stressed that both countries share a broad approach. "We believe that not only France, but every other member of the G7 -- frankly, our NATO allies too -- see the threats and challenges posed by China in the same way."

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on December 01-02/2022
Belgium's World Cup Football Riots: A Symbol of the Failure of the Migration Policy
Alain Destexhe/Gatestone Institute/December 01/2022
In Brussels, Moroccans outnumber people of Belgian origin in the under-18 age group; many schools are attended exclusively by children of non-European origin. In those public schools where parents have the choice of religion classes, Islam is now followed by a majority of pupils. Whether one describes these changes as "diversity" or as a "great replacement" is of little importance; over a few decades the evolution has been considerable and has modified the social fabric of Belgium's cities.
The hijab (Islamic veil) is increasingly present and is worn by a majority of women in some municipalities. During the month of Ramadan, almost all shops and restaurants are closed during the day in some areas. The number of mosques is exploding and all currents of Islam are represented in Brussels, where tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, or even between Moroccans and Turks, are sometimes high, especially within the Muslim Executive of Belgium, a structure that the federal government set up in order to have a single interlocutor for the Muslim community, but which has been going from crisis to crisis.
During trials or elections, it is common to see women arriving with their husbands, and explaining that they cannot be retained as jurors or assessors because they do not speak any of Belgium's official languages, thus attesting to a completely failed policy of integration. The "vivre ensemble" ("live together") praised by the Belgian political world is a myth, with communities living side by side but not mixing with each other. Moroccans marry Moroccan women and Turks marry Turkish women...
In France, the country's colonial past is regularly evoked to justify the anger of young North Africans. It is an explanation that does not hold: similar incidents take place in Belgium, a country that has no historical link with North Africa.
What is most distressing is the denial and the total absence of debate on the issues of immigration and integration, mainly on the French-speaking side of the country. Neither the media nor the political parties talk about it. Sunday's riots were attributed by the mayor of Brussels to "thugs and scoundrels", a discourse that was widely repeated without any precision or analysis.
While in France and elsewhere in Europe there is a lively debate around this theme, it is as if Belgium has given up, accepting its destiny as a multicultural country with a Muslim majority in its capital and from time to time a "new normal" made up of urban riots, shootings and terrorist attacks.
Violent clashes took place in Belgium after the Morocco-Belgium football match during the World Cup in Qatar. In Brussels, Moroccans outnumber people of Belgian origin in the under-18 age group. While elsewhere in Europe there is a lively debate around immigration and integration, it is as if Belgium has given up, accepting its destiny as a multicultural country with a Muslim majority in its capital and from time to time a "new normal" made up of urban riots, shootings and terrorist attacks. Pictured: Police work to clear a street amid violent riots on November 27, 2022, in Brussels, Belgium.
Violent clashes took place in Belgium after the Morocco-Belgium football match during the World Cup in Qatar.
Riots took place in Brussels, Antwerp and Liege, where a police station was attacked by about 50 "youths", and also in several cities in the Netherlands. Beyond these incidents, the popular jubilation in the predominantly Moroccan neighborhoods of Brussels, especially in Molenbeek, revealed that in these areas, the Moroccan identity has remained much stronger than the Belgian one, even though most of the inhabitants have dual nationality.
One would have to be blind and trying to fit reality into the ideology of "living together at all costs" not to see that the sympathies of Moroccans in Belgium were with the Moroccan team and not with the team of their "second homeland". Some journalists tried to do so, with headlines like "No matter who wins between Belgium and Morocco, it will be a party".
The party did take place, in Molenbeek, Anderlecht, Schaerbeek and Brussels, municipalities where Moroccan immigrants and their descendants are more numerous than other people, including the native Belgians. One could see the enthusiasm of these supporters honking their horns and displaying Moroccan flags in the streets of the capital in their cars with Belgian plates.
For many native Belgians, this spectacle broke the myth of integration into the host country, perhaps because the celebrations may have seemed excessive and even indecent for Belgium, which has allowed these Moroccans to live in a prosperous country and to benefit from the advantages of the welfare state.
The television channels did not show images of a man taking down a Belgian flag from a building to the applause of the crowd, nor a striking face-to-face between hundreds of Moroccans dancing and singing just a stone's throw from the Grand-Place in Brussels, blocked by a cordon of police officers, helmeted and baton-wielding, blocking them from access to the city center.
According to Statbel, the official Belgian statistics office, 46% of the population of Brussels is now of non-European origin (in the sense of the European Union plus the United Kingdom) and only 24% of Belgian origin. Moroccans represent 7% of the population of Belgium, but 12% in the Brussels-Capital Region, most of whom also hold Belgian nationality. The growth in the number of Moroccans in Belgium has been exponential: only 460 in 1961; 39,000 in 1970, and 800,000 forty years later; a large number for a country of only 11 million. As a result of this demographic evolution and the ease of acquiring Belgian nationality (in some instances after three years of residence without any other conditions), the country now has 26 regional or federal deputies of Moroccan origin and several mayors, who often encourage communitarianism, or "belonging to one's community."
In Brussels, Moroccans outnumber people of Belgian origin in the under-18 age group; many schools are attended exclusively by children of non-European origin. In those public schools where parents have the choice of religion classes, Islam is now followed by a majority of pupils. Whether one describes these changes as "diversity" or as a "great replacement" is of little importance; over a few decades the evolution has been considerable and has modified the social fabric of Belgium's cities.
The hijab (Islamic veil) is increasingly present and is worn by a majority of women in some municipalities. During the month of Ramadan, almost all shops and restaurants are closed during the day in some areas. The number of mosques is exploding and all currents of Islam are represented in Brussels, where tensions between Sunnis and Shiites, or even between Moroccans and Turks, are sometimes high, especially within the Muslim Executive of Belgium, a structure that the federal government set up in order to have a single interlocutor for the Muslim community, but which has been going from crisis to crisis.
While the slaughter of animals without first stunning them is forbidden in Flanders and Wallonia, the Muslim lobby in the Brussels Parliament has succeeded in blocking a legislative proposal in that direction. During trials or elections, it is common to see women arriving with their husbands, and explaining that they cannot be retained as jurors or assessors because they do not speak any of Belgium's official languages, thus attesting to a completely failed policy of integration. The "vivre ensemble" ("live together") praised by the Belgian political world is a myth, with communities living side by side but not mixing with each other. Moroccans marry Moroccan women and Turks marry Turkish women, whom they often bring over from their native country. Family reunification is now the primary source of immigration in Belgium, as in France.
In France, the country's colonial past is regularly evoked to justify the anger of young North Africans. It is an explanation that does not hold: similar incidents take place in Belgium, a country that has no historical link with North Africa. It was a 1964 convention that paved the way for economic immigration, the need for which has long since ceased to exist, but which continues indefinitely through family reunification, which the Americans rightly call "chain migration".
What is most distressing is the denial and the total absence of debate on the issues of immigration and integration, mainly on the French-speaking side of the country. Neither the media nor the political parties talk about it. Sunday's riots were attributed by the mayor of Brussels to "thugs and scoundrels", a discourse that was widely repeated without any precision or analysis. The link with excessive immigration, proportionally greater than that of France, is never made again. While in France and elsewhere in Europe there is a lively debate around this theme, it is as if Belgium has given up, accepting its destiny as a multicultural country with a Muslim majority in its capital and from time to time a "new normal" made up of urban riots, shootings and terrorist attacks.
*Alain Destexhe, a columnist and political analyst, is an honorary Senator in Belgium and former Secretary General of Médecins Sans Frontières / Doctors Without Borders.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

A Presidential Trojan Horse: The Inflation Reduction Act
Lawrence Kadish/Gatestone Institute/November 30, 2022
U.S Senator Joseph Manchin has been playing both sides against the middle for the past year and it appears that game is about to end.
This year Manchin offered his vote to pass the so called "Inflation Reduction Act" in return for Senate leadership support of legislation that would loosen regulations now impacting energy pipeline construction in his home state of West Virginia. In some earlier era in Washington, that kind of Capitol Hill give-and-get would have gone unnoticed, just another deal being cut with taxpayers' money before lunch in the Senate dining room.
That was then. This is now.
Manchin's vote essentially gave the Biden Administration a blank check, spending hundreds of billions of dollars wherever and whenever they want as the White House ramps up their reelection bid. If one is permitted to say so, a citizen would have to be beyond naïve to believe that this blizzard of federal cash will all be accounted for on behalf of projects that actually strengthen the republic. No one knows that better than Manchin, as he cut his deal with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer in a scene from "Advice and Consent."
Now, Manchin's side deal is in trouble. Political observers say his Republican colleagues spotted his political expediency some time ago and have little reason to support his proposal even if less regulation is a shared ideology
Manchin should not be surprised that his side deal is in serious trouble: he has wobbled across the political spectrum during 2022. It became obvious that he had no north star that guides his political goals. Rather, he seeks to cut deals with whomever he can for the purpose of advancing his own immediate agenda or, as he should, what he perceives as that of his state and constituents. Perhaps that worked in another era but not when, due to justifiable widespread skepticism over election integrity, the future of our democracy is at risk.
One wonders if Manchin wanted a Senate legacy: at 75, he will face a spirited challenger in 2024, whomever the Republicans select. If permitting reform was approved by the Senate he would use it as the cloak needed to ward off voter anger over an "Inflation Reduction Act" that could well be a Presidential Trojan Horse filled with dollars for states that are important when counting electoral votes.
One news report suggests that Manchin suffered a setback recently when Rep. Mike Rogers, (R-Ala.), a the top-ranking Republican on the House Appropriations Committee, said there was "zero chance" of adding reform to the annual defense authorization bill, permitting energy pipelines in West Virginia -- a reform that Manchin was promised and that would have given him a serious political win in his state.
Manchin's pending legislative defeat should send a strong message to those who believe they can place politics over principle and then mask it as a service to the nation. We do, in fact, badly need regulatory reform for the purpose of strengthening our nation's energy reserves. However it will need to be accomplished by those who pursue policies that are right for our nation.
Lawrence Kadish serves on the Board of Governors of Gatestone Institute.
© 2022 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

On Fundamentalism of the October 17 Revolution!
Hanna Saleh/Asharq Al Awsat/November 01/2022
Is it true that fundamentalism dominates the climate created by the October 17 revolution, hindering the crystallization of “solutions” through the election of a president who could save the country and set it on the right track?
Is it fair, at a time when collapses are destroying the lives of the Lebanese people, during which the majority of them were impoverished, to say that Lebanon’s October is “dogmatic” and “moves unilaterally, refusing to acknowledge other versions of the truth?” Some of those spewing this nonsense have gone as far as claiming that the October forces “greatly oversimply matters and have a dogmatic understanding of the collapse.” Some have gone even further, claiming that these forces seek to evoke the “fury of the hoards and exploit their animosity for the others.” This nonsense totally ignores the fact that collapse has shattered people’s lives, holding citizens responsible for the opportunism of the country’s rulers and the hijacking of the state. It leaps over the reality of the situation affirmed by the World Bank, which called the crisis an ongoing crime perpetrated by the political class and stressed that the elites dominating the country have not taken any steps to mitigate it.
There are many questions and just as many pre-prepared answers. Panic has taken hold of the regime, both those who are “pro-government” and those in the “opposition,” after the message they received from the ballot boxes, which suggested that the political scene could potentially change radically. They worry that the era in which sectarian forces monopolize parliamentary seats and share the wealth of the country could come to an end. That is why a comprehensive reading of what the revolution stands for its strong emphasis on integrity, citizenship, and respecting the constitution, as well as its repudiation of moral contamination and political corruption- demands that we think deeply about the events of the past two decades. October 17 found its way into every community in Lebanon, even seeping into “safe environments.” This took Hezbollah by surprise, and so it hurled an array of accusations against the Octoberists, to whom it attributed a series of egregious crimes, including treachery. They did so for no other reason than the October revolution’s bend to build the modern state of law and take Lebanon out of the hell it is currently in!
Two junctures shaped the past two decades. The first was the Independence Uprising of 2005, which shook the security apparatuses in Beirut and Damascus, forcing the occupying Syrian army out of the country. As for the second, it is the October 17 revolution of 2019, which led to the first historical reconciliation turning the page on the civil war. Through it, people discovered what unites them, allowing them to overcome decades of sectarian incitement during which they were living in physical proximity to one another but as sectarian rivals and when the language of “us and them” dominated! Their coming together thus made the difference when they demanded their rights from “all of them means all of them.”
The people’s massive achievement on March 14, 2005, exceeded expectations. An estimated 1.5 million citizens took to the streets that day, while the organizers had expected a third of that figure! Men and women of all ages came together to raise their country’s flag and demand justice and the foundation of a modern state that can safeguard its citizens and ensure equality of opportunity, as well as a single, united army. Most importantly, they wanted to see an end to violations of the constitution and the law, and they insisted on freedoms and social justice.
The Independence Insurgency spooked its sectarian leadership, and it was thus prevented from becoming a revolution. And so, the decade of domestic “wheeling and dealing” began. It guaranteed the interests of the members of the Quadripartite Alliance that brought March 8 and March 14 forces together, leaping over the interests of the people and the hopes that they had pinned on reimplementing the constitution and building a state of law. This alliance sent shockwaves across the Christian community, shaking their confidence. Meanwhile, it isolated the Shiites opposed to the thuggery of Hezbollah, which would have negative repercussions in the future. Despite this, voters gave March 14 a parliamentary majority in 2005 and 2009. However, March 14 did not even try to rule in the name of the majority.
The Independence Insurgency was deliberately aborted, and the national balance of power it spoke to was broken after the “rivals” came together. This reinforced the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime and disregard for the constitution, which has become treated like a point of view. The “deal” has always had apologists and supporters. They claim that after the civil war, the Lebanese regime came to be based on a “consensus” among the main sects: Maronites, Sunnis, and Shiites- in practice, between their leaders. The lack of a “consensus,” they add, would have sparked civil conflict! This argument was based on the assumption that sectarian quotas are based on estimates of the size of each community with respect to the others. It thus disregards the rights of the people and the interests of the country, allows the statelet to chip away at the state, and mainstreams corruption.
They came together under the roof of a single government, putting their hands on the state’s resources and sharing power. They did this under the guise of mendacious claims, the most prominent of which is defending sects’ rights. They looked the other way as Hezbollah took control of the country’s land crossings, its airport, and its port and expanded its parallel economy, and robbed the state.
Over a decade before the revolution erupted, they put they seized the deposits in the country’s banks, close to 120 billion dollars, to cover deficits, build clientelist networks, and share the spoils of billions going into the country’s electricity while it offered absolutely nothing. As a consequence, the collapse accelerated, unemployment grew, and tens of thousands of skilled workers left the country because they found no alternative solutions. The country became closed off because of the policies that Hezbollah had imposed on it, especially the presidential “deal,” and the systemic pillaging of the country aggravated to the extent that it now threatens its survival.
The October 17 revolution did not erupt in a vacuum. A criminal clique laid the groundwork for it. The great collapse pushed the revolution that erupted in the country’s four corners. The broad sense of resentment to the parties exploded: the overwhelming majority was pitted against a political class, its supporters, and its associates.
From the very first moment, their slogan was: “all of them means all of them” are responsible for bringing the Lebanese to their knees. The compass of the revolution set the destination: liberating the hijacked state and reinstating the constitution. and retrieving sovereignty. The formation of a government independent of the regime is a necessary prerequisite. The Octoberists did not lose sight of the significance of building a mass movement for the confrontation of the forces in power led by Hezbollah. The latter was on the frontlines defending the sectarian-quota-based spoil-sharing regime, declaring that that parliament would not be overthrown and that Aoun would remain in Baabda. Eventually, the number of votes for the Octobirsts would confirm that the “historical bloc” of their political project is the alternative!
Three years after the revolutions and the snowballing of crises, the priorities of the “pro-government” and “opposition” forces of the regime are to abort any attempt to save the country. Meanwhile, the ruling clique has united in endorsing the violation of the constitution and the abandonment of sovereignty and wealth to the enemy, all to polish its image abroad and strengthen its position domestically! As those who are lucky smuggled their money abroad, the people received a hidden “haircut” to their deposits, aggravating the collapse of the currency’s value, the state’s bankruptcy, the unemployment crisis, and inflation!
All of this affirmed that no reforms are possible from the inside. This theory has failed and lost out to the privileges of the men clinging to their seats and using their positions of power to build their wealth. When they looted the country’s private and public wealth, starved the people, and broadened the crisis, they showed just how strongly they would stand against any reforms. Indeed reforms are an existential threat, and so the political class cannot be part of the push for change.
After October 17, people are no longer afraid. It brought down the attempts to terrorize, crush, and co-opt it. It will soon become organized within a framework. It is fundamentalist in its loyalty to the people and their hopes. It knows that electing a paper tiger president is not as significant as liberating the state, retrieving its capacity to make its decisions and rebuilding the country. The illegitimate arms would thus become scrap metal, and it will not lose sight of the need to force the opportunists who depended on these arms into early retirement.

Is Ankara Mending Fences with Cairo and Damascus?
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Asharq Al Awsat/November 01/2022
Why were Egypt and Syria at the bottom of the Turkish government’s reconciliation list?
Turkey seems to be mending fences: the decade-long (and, in Syria’s case, bloody) conflict between the governments is apparently ending.
The last breakthrough was initiated by Turkish President Erdogan, following the failure by technical negotiators to reach an agreement on the last remaining file. Attempts to repair the relations between Cairo and Ankara had been afoot since the fever of reconciliations took AlUla by storm in early 2021.
The Egyptian and Turkish sides had reached significant agreements, but the reconciliation was only formally completed at the leadership level during the World Cup opening ceremony, which brought together Abdelfattal el-Sisi and Erdogan under Qatari sponsorship. Seated between the two Presidents, the United Nations Secretary General was far from being a barrier. Both Egypt and Turkey had probably been preparing this for weeks, choosing the World Cup as the occasion in honor of Qatar, who served as the mediator between them.
But protocols aside, the Egyptian-Turkish reconciliation bears special significance, given its effect on some of the hottest issues in the region.
The conflict between the two countries had started after Mohammad Morsi’s government was decisively toppled in 2013. The late President had run the country with the [Muslim] Brotherhood mindset, which led to the establishment of a firm alliance between the enraged streets and the military establishment, thus putting an end to the Muslim Brotherhood’s time in power.
The group’s shunned leaders found in Istanbul their makeshift capital, and from their new Turkish base, started laying the foundations for what looked like their project to reclaim power. Cue a diplomatic crisis between the two countries that only intensified with time.
For a year and a half, the two governments ran a series of meetings aimed at tackling points of contention, every now and then making great strides at the security and media levels, with Turkey putting an end to nearly all opposition activities on its territory. Yet it was still unclear why the two parties failed to complete the reconciliation, especially in terms of two dossiers: the disagreement on conflict management in Libya, where each party backs one of the two warring forces; and the dispute on the territorial waters of the Mediterranean Sea between Egypt, Greece, and Turkey after the discovery of gas in what are thought to be large quantities.
Libya is vital for both Egypt’s security and Turkey’s economy, with huge debts from Gaddafi’s era still waiting to be settled. Therefore, the reconciliation between the two countries draws its significance from its potential to end the civil war in Libya, which is reason for optimism in and of itself. The Muslim Brotherhood, from their opposition halls abroad, will be the ones to pay the price of such reconciliation.
In contrast, the path towards reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus seems to be a long and winding road. Even if Erdogan himself goes to Damascus, like he said he would, reconciliation is still far-fetched given the complexity of the situation. The two countries have been indirectly engaged in a military war for a decade.
The Syrian ground is a battlefield for one too many forces: Iranian, Russian, and American armed forces, multinational militias, remnants of ISIS and al-Qarda, separatist Turkish Kurds, and the Syrian armed opposition, to count a few. Many of the regions outside Damascus’ authority still struggle in a continuous vacuum. Throw into the mix the millions of Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons, who must be part of any solution.
Everybody wants the conflict to end, but no one knows just how it will.

Iran’s problems are caused by the regime’s lack of pragmatism
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib/Arab News/December 01, 2022
Regimes that are built on ideology are doomed to fail. The greatest example in modern history is the Soviet Union. Not having a fixed ideology means a country is flexible enough to capture and answer the needs of society. In ideological regimes, the society is modeled to fit the dogma. This is not sustainable. It failed in the Soviet Union and today we see it failing in Iran.
Clearly, the ongoing demonstrations, which were sparked by the death in morality police custody of Mahsa Amini after she was detained for not properly wearing her hijab, extend beyond women’s attire. They are a sign of the bankruptcy of the ideology and the inability of the rigid system to adapt to society.
The Soviet Union failed because of the inefficiencies that are inherent in an ideological regime. While the Soviet Union collapsed, communist China prevailed. This was due to the visionary leadership of Deng Xiaoping. He realized that, to survive, the system needs to adapt to the requirements of society and not vice versa. He changed communism instead of trying to change the Chinese people.
Like the protests that erupted in the US following the death of George Floyd, the Iran protests are part of a movement that has been brewing for years; it just needed a trigger to express itself. It goes beyond discontent with being told what to wear and what not to wear. It is a sign that people are fed up with a totalitarian system that does not cater to their need for economic prosperity and personal freedom.
The Iranian leaders are now in a tough spot. One might ask why they do not just cede to the protesters on their hijab demand and calm the anger. However, the regime knows the situation is beyond this point. Any sign of weakness will encourage the protesters to demand ever more. The leaders see how in other countries like Egypt and Tunisia, when the regimes tried to compromise with the protesters, they ended up collapsing. In Syria, when the regime brutally crushed the protests, it was able to survive, at least until now.
Now, the Iranian regime feels like it is at the point of no return. The important question is how did the regime reach this point? Iranian officials blame the protests on international sanctions, which are creating hardship, and on invisible foreign hands. However, we are where we are because the regime lacks pragmatism. Mohammed Khatami, the Iranian Deng, was not given a chance. He spoke about reinterpreting the revolution, but the rigid deep state and its jaded ideology did not allow him to introduce the changes that could have catered to the Iranian people’s needs.
Reforms in an ideological regime are very hard because the ideology or principles are its raison d’etre
Every ideology loses its glow with time. Initially, people are infatuated with its big principles, but later on they forget about these and want to live in dignity. However, the ideology as set by the Khomeinist regime is above the well-being of the people. Ayatollah Khomeini himself said “we did not rise up to get cheaper melons.” This means that the revolutionary ideology is above the people and not a tool to serve them, hence the lack of pragmatism.
The lack of pragmatism is what has driven Iran to this point, where people can no longer accept the regime. Despite the repression, the protests are continuing. Those in the regime who protested against the shah back in 1979 understand what popular discontent means. They know that repression has its limits. Excessive force might, at a certain point, stop the protests. However, they also know that, even if this happens, the regime will be living on borrowed time, just like the regime of Bashar Assad.
It is now a bit too late to become pragmatic. The popular discontent has reached a level that is difficult to control. What the regime did not understand is that, with each round of repression — starting with the Green Movement in 2009 — the anger was growing. Squashing the protests was not a sign of success. On the contrary, it was a demonstration of the regime’s inability to satisfy the needs of the people.
It is easy to say “if.” If the regime showed flexibility and conducted reforms, it would not have reached this stage. Nevertheless, the reality is much harder than this. Reforms in an ideological regime are very hard because the ideology or principles are its raison d’etre. Some, like China, have managed to keep the appearance of the ideology, while totally changing the regime to be competitive on the global market and to fulfill the economic and social needs of the people. China is the exception rather than the norm. Ideological regimes are not able to be pragmatic and this is the reason for their eventual downfall.
So, will the regime in Iran fall? Maybe and maybe not. If it uses excessive force and if the army does not defect, the regime might survive for now. But again, it is living on borrowed time. The turmoil in Iran shows us how ideological regimes lack pragmatism, which leads to a disconnect between the masses and the leadership and this is the recipe for unrest and eventual collapse.
• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is an affiliated scholar at the Hoover Institution, Stanford, and is president of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.

Today’s Iran protests have echoes of 1979 revolution
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh/Arab News/December 01, 2022
Many Iranians are characterizing what is occurring across the country as a revolution, not just scattered protests and demonstrations as the authorities insist. While revolutions have taken place in less than a month in some countries, if Iran’s history offers any guidance, a revolution there is often preceded by many months, if not years, of growing protests.
Iran’s historical, sociopolitical and socioeconomic landscapes appear to be somewhat different from those of other countries in the region, including Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran has had three major revolutions since the beginning of the 20th century: The 1906 Constitutional Revolution, the oil nationalization movement led by Mohammed Mossadegh in the early 1950s, and the 1979 revolution. The mullahs’ rule is only an aberration in the larger context.
Iran is now in its third month of continuing protests. This is unprecedented in the four-decade rule of the Islamic Republic. Protesters are not asking for policy changes; instead, they are calling for regime change. As an Iranian woman pointed out in an interview with Reuters: “Hey world, hear me: I want a revolution. I want to live freely and I’m ready to die for it. Instead of dying every minute under this regime’s repression, I prefer to die with their (security forces) bullets in protests for freedom.”
The fear of a potential revolution is being felt by some of the Iranian authorities. Mohammed Reza Tajik, a member of the reformist faction, warned in an interview with the state-controlled Bahar News: “The current political situation in today’s society has passed the era of fear and entered the era of rage. The current movement is associated with a kind of happiness and zeal for life. Today’s activist is prepared to sacrifice his or her life to achieve freedom.” He added: “Today’s activist thinks only the language of anger is the solution and that other languages are not answered and are not heard. Over the years, we have planted the seeds of hate and now we are reaping a lot of wrath.”
The more the Iranian regime uses violence against protesters, the stronger the protests will get
It is worth noting that Iran’s 1979 revolution did not happen in a short period of time, unlike others such as Egypt’s 2011 revolution, which began on Jan. 25 of that year and, by Feb. 11, Hosni Mubarak had resigned as president. In fact, protests in Iran began in October 1977, nearly a year and half before the revolution, and continued until 1979, when the shah’s dynasty was overthrown.
In 1978, ordinary people and various oppositional groups came together. But the international community did not believe that these protests could result in a revolution. This is most likely due to the fact that the shah was successful in creating a desirable image of himself outside of Iran as a king who enjoyed legitimacy, a powerful military and the support of the people. However, the more the shah’s security forces killed people, the more the resistance campaign and protests grew. Ultimately, Ayatollah Khomeini’s fundamentalist organization co-opted the revolution in February 1979, after the shah had fled the country.
Today, the more the Iranian regime uses violence against protesters, the stronger the protests will get. It is worth noting that, in Iran, funeral ceremonies are held on the third day (sevom), seventh day (haftom) and 40th day (chehelom) after the burial of the deceased. These ceremonies have now become a platform for mass protests, further challenging the regime’s hold on power. As the regime kills more protesters, it is finding itself in an uncontrollable circle of rage and resistance.
Some elements of the people’s ongoing civil disobedience and resistance resemble those that existed in 1979. For instance, most Iranian people at that time were struggling to set up a representative and democratic system of governance. They were dissatisfied with Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi due to the widespread political and financial corruption and human rights violations.
Besides those factors, people are currently fed up with the restrictive rules imposed by the ruling clerics, the so-called morality police and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its paramilitary group, the Basij. Many people do not want to have a theocracy that imposes its extremist beliefs and teachings on society. In addition, many people demand better living standards and economic equality.
It is ironic that the Islamic Republic, which has sought to export its revolution to other countries for more than four decades, is now resorting to every possible brutal tactic to prevent a revolution at home.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian-American political scientist. Twitter: @Dr_Rafizadeh.