English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For December 01/2020
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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Bible Quotations For today
Chief tax-collector, Zacchaeus receives Jesus in His House, Repents and offers the Penances
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 19/01-10/:”He entered Jericho and was passing through it. A man was there named Zacchaeus; he was a chief tax-collector and was rich. He was trying to see who Jesus was, but on account of the crowd he could not, because he was short in stature. So he ran ahead and climbed a sycomore tree to see him, because he was going to pass that way. When Jesus came to the place, he looked up and said to him, ‘Zacchaeus, hurry and come down; for I must stay at your house today.’So he hurried down and was happy to welcome him. All who saw it began to grumble and said, ‘He has gone to be the guest of one who is a sinner.’ Zacchaeus stood there and said to the Lord, ‘Look, half of my possessions, Lord, I will give to the poor; and if I have defrauded anyone of anything, I will pay back four times as much.’Then Jesus said to him, ‘Today salvation has come to this house, because he too is a son of Abraham.For the Son of Man came to seek out and to save the lost.’”


Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 30-December 01/2021
Ministry of Health: 1618 new cases, 9 deaths
U.N. Special Coordinator Briefs Security Council on the Implementation of Resolution 1701
Qatar Pledges to Help Lebanon, Urges it to Resolve Crisis with Gulf
Lebanon wants ‘best relations’ with Saudi Arabia, GCC, Aoun says
Berri meets WB’s Kumar Jha, UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Cuban Ambassador
Mikati meets UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, EBRD delegation
President participates in Arab Football Cup opening ceremony, will return to Beirut tonight
Beirut Fire Brigade Pleads for Help, as Fire Spreads in Bshamoun
Hamra, Sanayeh Roads Blocked by Taxi Drivers Reopened
Miqati Raises Solution with Berri amid Reports of Possible Parliamentary 'Settlement'
Reports: Miqati to Proceed with Negotiations in Hope of Relaunching Govt.
Fayad, Qatari counterpart tackle Qatar's gas supply for Electricité du Liban
UK Ambassador announces further support to Lebanese Army of 1.4 million USD
Geagea warns vote delay could condemn Lebanon to ‘slow death’
Bou Habib partakes in UfM 6th Regional Forum
Hezbollah still trying to deliver fuel to Lebanon - analysis/Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/November 30/2021
Healthcare as luxury/Dana Hourany/Now Lebanon/November 30/2021
The Lebanese Information Center Gives Two Million in Aid to Lebanon

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 30-December 01/2021
Iran's Raisi Says Ending Sanctions Key to Vienna Talks
Iran Makes Maximalist Demands as Vienna Nuclear Talks Open
Report: Iran May Use its Cyber Tool to Achieve Regional Interests
Iraq’s Sadrist bloc confirmed biggest election winner
UN Security Council Discusses War Crimes in Syria
Palestinian President: We May Be Forced to Take New Course of Action to Counter Israeli Practices
Morocco's King Calls for Rebuilding Trust Between Palestinians, Israelis
Arab Coalition Strikes Iran Revolutionary Guards Targets in Sanaa
Probe in Iraqi PM Assassination Plot Reaches Significant Leads
Erdogan Says Also Plans Steps with Egypt, Israel after UAE Visit
Congress Adheres To Targeted Sanctions In Sudan
Anti-military Protesters to March on Sudan’s Presidential Palace
Has Abu Dhabi crown prince’s visit to Ankara prompted Erdogan to operate a foreign policy reset?
Omicron Brings COVID-19 Vaccine Inequity 'Home to Roost'

Titles For The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 30-December 01/2021
Biden’s Democracy Summit Is a South Asian Diplomatic Flub/Mihir Sharma/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 30/2021
The Temporary Is Permanent… Disputes that Repel Resolutions/Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 30/2021
Germany's Coalition Agreement: A "Lowest Common Denominator" Deal/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 30/2021
Turkey is Collateral Damage in Erdoğan’s Hostage Diplomacy/Eric S. Edelman and Aykan Erdemir/The Dispatch-FDD/November 30/2021
The two Arab worlds/Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November 30/2021

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on November 30-December 01/2021
Ministry of Health: 1618 new cases, 9 deaths
NNA/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021  
The Ministry of Public Health announced 1618 new coronavirus infection cases, which raises the cumulative number of confirmed cases to 670,656.
Nine deaths have been recorded.

U.N. Special Coordinator Briefs Security Council on the Implementation of Resolution 1701
Naharnet/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
U.N. Special Coordinator for Lebanon Joanna Wronecka, Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and UNIFIL Force Commander Maj. Gen. Stefano del Col briefed Tuesday the U.N. Security Council on the implementation of Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) and the situation in Lebanon, with a focus on the latest report of U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. Wronecka recognized the formation of a government as "a positive development" while regretting that "it had not resulted in progress in the implementation of a reform agenda in Lebanon" since her last briefing to the Security Council in July 2021.Noting the deteriorating socio-economic conditions in Lebanon and their acute impact on people’s daily lives, Wronecka said she hoped the Lebanese Cabinet would resume its meetings that have been suspended since October 12 and take urgent measures in the interest of the country and the people. “Commitments must translate into actions if Lebanon’s leadership intends to overcome the country’s deep crisis, recover Lebanon’s political and institutional stability and address the needs and rights of the Lebanese people,” the Special Coordinator said.
In this regard, she stressed that “fair and transparent elections within constitutional timelines are the linchpin of democracy, an integral part of reform and place Lebanon on a path of recovery,” and reiterated international readiness to support the electoral process. Members of the Security Council welcomed "UNIFIL’s efforts to maintain peace and security in south Lebanon and its close coordination with the Lebanese Armed Forces." They also emphasized "the importance of all parties honoring their commitments to fully implement resolution 1701 and respect the cessation of hostilities."Encouraging additional international support to the Lebanese Armed Forces, the Special Coordinator commended "the critical role played by the army in safeguarding Lebanon’s security and stability despite the impact of the socio-economic crisis on the military institution and its servicemen."
Noting recent tensions related to the investigation into the Beirut Port explosions, the Special Coordinator reiterated the U.N.’s calls for justice and accountability through the swift conduct of an impartial, thorough and transparent investigation. The Special Coordinator also highlighted the U.N.’s "ongoing efforts to support Lebanon during this difficult period" and its "steadfast commitment to Lebanon’s security, stability and territorial integrity."

Qatar Pledges to Help Lebanon, Urges it to Resolve Crisis with Gulf
Doha - Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani stressed on Monday that Doha “stands by Lebanon, and is ready to assist it in all areas.”Sheikh Tamim received on Monday Lebanese President Michel Aoun, who said the support provided by Qatar to Lebanon “is exemplary and confirms the brotherly and cooperative relations between the two countries.” Aoun had arrived in Doha on Monday upon an official invitation from Qatar for the opening ceremony of an Arab football tournament. The two officials reviewed means to strengthen bilateral relations and discussed regional and international developments.
The Qatar News Agency said Aoun briefed Sheikh Tamim on the latest developments in Lebanon, and “noted the depth of the old and solid Qatari-Lebanese relations, which have been growing and developing year after year.”A statement issued by the Lebanese presidency said the Emir of Qatar underlined that his country “stands by Lebanon, and is ready to help it in all areas to overcome the difficult conditions it is experiencing.”Sheikh Tamim spoke of the “difficult conditions the Lebanese people are enduring and their ability to rise again,” emphasizing that his country was ready “to contribute to investment in Lebanon after completing the appropriate laws.” Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani will visit Beirut soon to review the means to provide the necessary assistance to Lebanon, the statement added. Sehikh Tamim hoped the crisis between Lebanon and a number of Gulf countries will be resolved in the near future, “especially since Lebanon has always been on the side of all Arab and Gulf states.”Aoun, in turn, welcomed any “investment made by Qatar to implement development projects in Lebanon in the fields of energy, electricity, banking, and others, where opportunities are many and varied.”The statement said that the discussion between the two sides covered several topics, including the reconstruction of Beirut Port, the provision of electrical power and cooperation in the field of oil and gas. Following a closed-door meeting, Aoun said he called on Sheikh Tamim “to direct Qatari businessmen to invest in Lebanon, where opportunities are available in all fields, especially in the energy sector.”Later on Monday, Aoun said in an interview with Al-Jazeera television that he did not agree with Hezbollah on calls to dismiss the investigator in the Beirut port explosion case. He added that the party was “committed to UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and has not committed any violation since 2017.” He also announced that he would leave the presidency at the end of his term, “but if parliament decides I should stay, then I will stay.”

Lebanon wants ‘best relations’ with Saudi Arabia, GCC, Aoun says
Al Jazeera/November 30/2021
President Michel Aoun tells Al Jazeera, Lebanon is seeking to mend ties with Saudi Arabia and other GCC states amid an ongoing diplomatic rift.
Lebanese President Michel Aoun says his country wants the “best relations” with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries amid an ongoing diplomatic rift with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Aoun said on Monday evening that his country is seeking to reconcile with Saudi Arabia, which severed diplomatic ties with Beirut last month.
The crisis erupted last month after video footage circulated online from an August interview in which Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi made critical remarks about the Saudi-led coalition’s war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Kordahi, a former game show host, said the Iran-aligned Houthis are “defending themselves … against an external aggression”. Kordahi is a member of a small Christian party allied with Hezbollah, which backs the Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia has distanced itself from Lebanon in recent years, often criticising it for Hezbollah’s growing influence in politics. Riyadh considers Hezbollah a “terrorist” organisation.
Hezbollah has praised Kordahi for his remarks.
Lebanese PM urges minister to ‘take right decision’ over GCC rift
In response, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain recalled their envoys from Beirut and expelled their Lebanese ambassadors. Saudi Arabia also banned all Lebanese imports into the kingdom in a big blow to Beirut’s already crippled economy.
Bahrain and the UAE called on their citizens to leave the country, while Yemen has also since recalled its envoy from Beirut.
The Lebanese authorities have called for dialogue with their Saudi counterparts.
President Aoun has dismissed Kordahi’s comments and said they do not reflect the Lebanese government’s position.
But he clarified that he has not asked Kordahi to resign from office over the remarks. He added that Kordahi will act in Lebanon’s best interest.
“When a Saudi journalist insulted me on the air, no action was taken against him,” Aoun, whose Free Patriotic Movement party is in alliance with Hezbollah movement, said.
The Lebanese president on Monday met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani during which they discussed the GCC crisis, among other things.
Aoun met Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and discussed the latest developments in his country [AP Photo]
Qatar, also a GCC member, reportedly offered to mediate talks between the two sides. However, Al Jazeera could not independently verify the report.
The two talked about developments of mutual interest regionally and internationally, as well as ways to enhance bilateral relations.
Aoun urged Qatar to invest in Lebanon amid ongoing civil unrest over the economic situations at home, saying his country desperately needed multiple investments in various fields.
Dwindling economy
Aoun also spoke about other issues, including the investigation into the 2020 Beirut port blast, and the role of the powerful armed Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Speaking about the investigation into the deadly Beirut port explosion, which took place on August 4, 2020, Aoun said he did not agree with Hezbollah’s stance.
The group had repeatedly called for replacing Judge Tarek Bitar, who has been leading the investigations, over the allegations of “bias” that have been widely dismissed by rights groups and families of blast victims.
Last month, Bitar was forced to stop work for a third time over a lawsuit brought forward by a former minister who had been summoned for questioning.
Aoun also said Lebanon’s central bank is under a criminal investigation. Luxembourg judicial authorities had opened “a criminal case” in relation to Governor Riad Salameh – who Aoun said is responsible for all the money lost.
Lebanon: Worsening living conditions spark more protests
The Lebanese pound has lost almost 90 percent of its value since late 2019 – the main driving force that has crushed the country’s economy which is now in tatters.
Earlier this year, the World Bank said Lebanon’s economic and financial crisis could rank as one of the three severest the world has seen since the mid-19th century.
In the wide-ranging interview to the Doha-based network, the Lebanese president reiterated that parliamentary elections will be held as scheduled and that measures are being taken to organise the March 27 event.
Due to the ongoing political and economic crisis, as well as the controversial electoral law – which stipulates that Lebanon’s parliament is proportioned based on the state’s multiple religious and sectarian denominations – there has been speculation that the election could be postponed.

Berri meets WB’s Kumar Jha, UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Cuban Ambassador
NNA/November 30/2021
House Speaker, Nabih Berri, on Tuesday received at the Second Presidency in Ain El-Tineh, the World Bank's Regional Director of the Mashreq Department, Saroj Kumar Jha, and they discussed the World Bank’s projects and programs in Lebanon, including the financing card project.
On emerging, Kumar Jha described his meeting with Speaker Berri as good over the World Bank's programs in Lebanon. “As you know, the World Bank is working on projects and programs in Lebanon, especially in the economic fields and the development of social safety nets. I presented to Speaker Berri a summary of these projects, most important of which is the emergency social safety nets project. We agreed with Speaker Berri to launch a campaign to encourage registration on the platform for families who can benefit from this program.”Kumar Jha indicated that he looks forward to launching this platform tomorrow to secure this urgent and essential assistance as of next January. On the other hand, Speaker Berri met with the United Nations Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon, Najat Rochdi, over the current general situation and programs undertaken by the United Nations in Lebanon. This afternoon, Berri received Cuban Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Moraga, who came on a farewell visit upon the end of his diplomatic mission in the country.

Mikati meets UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, EBRD delegation
NNA/November 30/2021 
Prime Minister Najib Mikati met Tuesday at the Grand Serail with UN Deputy Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Najat Rochdi, over the current general situation on the local scene. Mikati also met today with Cuban Ambassador to Lebanon, Alexander Pellicer Moraga, who came on a farewell visit upon the end of his diplomatic mission in the country. Among the Grand Serail's itinerants, was also Lebanon's Ambassador to Oman, Alberts Samaha. Mikati later received MP Ali Darwiche, with whom he discussed the means to revive the work of the public institutions and administrations. The pair also tackled an array of affairs relevant to the northern city of Tripoli. The Prime Minister also met with a delegation of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

President participates in Arab Football Cup opening ceremony, will return to Beirut tonight
NNA/November 30/2021
The President arrived at Al Bayt Stadium this afternoon, Qatar time, and sat on the main podium alongside Qatari Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the heads of delegations of the countries participating in the activities of this competition, and official officials and athletes of the International
Football Association "FIFA". The celebration took place on the grounds of the "Al-Bayt" stadium, where the opening match of the tournament was held, which brought together the national teams of Qatar and Bahrain. In addition, President Aoun commended Qatar for securing everything necessary for hosting this tournament and its success, wishing success for the Lebanese team in its matches, and for all participating Arab teams. mThe opening ceremony started at 7:15 pm Doha time, and included glimpses of virtual personalities and musical stations, films about nature and Qatar, musical songs by Feiruz, and excerpts from the national anthem of each country participating in the tournament. The President and the accompanying delegation will return at night to Beirut, concluding their visit to Qatar, which came in response to an official invitation from Prince Sheikh Tamim. -- Press Office

Beirut Fire Brigade Pleads for Help, as Fire Spreads in Bshamoun
Naharnet/November 30/2021
The Beirut Fire Brigade pleaded Tuesday for help to extinguish a fire that has ripped through a forest in Bshamoun. The firefighters urged those who can help to secure water for the fire engines, as the wind caused the fire to spread.
The schools in the area evacuated the students because of the smoke, amid fears that the flames may reach electricity lines. A Civil Defense firefighter was meanwhile injured and transferred to hospital. “The wind speed is preventing us from controlling the fire,” Director General of the Civil Defense Raymond Khattar decried, adding that the conditions are not favorable for the firefighters. “This fire is premeditated,” Khattar said. Beirut Governor Judge Marwan Abboud had asked the fire brigade to help the Civil Defense to douse the fire in Bshamoun that erupted Monday night and reignited today, Tuesday. Environment Minister Nasser Yassine, who inspected the area, reiterated the calls for help and asked for water reinforcements from the governor of Mount Lebanon. He said that the wind had worsened the situation, endangering the safety of the team operating the army’s helicopters. “The helicopters were forced to stop,” Yassine said.

Hamra, Sanayeh Roads Blocked by Taxi Drivers Reopened
Naharnet/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Taxi drivers blocked roads with their vehicles Tuesday during a protest against the increasing prices of gasoline, consumer goods and the crash of the local currency. The taxi drivers protested in front of the Interior Ministry, blocking Hamra's main street and also Martyrs Square in downtown Beirut.
All the roads leading to Hamra and Sanayeh were later reopened, the National News Agency said. Scores of protesters had also blocked major roads on Monday to express anger at the country’s political class for the worsening economic crisis and harsh living conditions. Lebanon’s economic crisis deteriorated in recent weeks with the Lebanese pound hitting a new low, eradicating the purchasing power of most of the country’s residents, who get paid in Lebanese pounds. Prices have been skyrocketing as the government lifted subsidies on fuel and some medicines, making them out of reach for many in Lebanon. The crisis has been made worse by the coronavirus, the August 2020 explosion in Beirut's port and a recent diplomatic row with the Gulf countries.

Miqati Raises Solution with Berri amid Reports of Possible Parliamentary 'Settlement'
Naharnet/November 30/2021
Prime Minister Najib Miqati visited Ain el-Tineh following his return from abroad to seek Speaker Nabih Berri’s help in holding a Cabinet session in which “some” Shiite ministers would take part, informed sources said. The other Shiite ministers would “boycott” the session, the sources added, in remarks to Nidaa al-Watan newspaper published Tuesday. Berri, however, maintained his insistence on the Shiite duo’s stance which calls for “resolving the issue of (Judge Tarek) Bitar first,” the sources said. Media reports meanwhile said that there could be a parliamentary “settlement” to the crisis resulting from the Shiite duo’s insistence on Bitar’s removal. Under the reported settlement, the accused ex-PM and former ministers would be referred to a parliamentary panel of inquiry and a “bargain” would be made with the Free Patriotic Movement under which it would provide a “Christian” cover to a parliamentary session that would approve the panel, the reports said. The FPM would in return get “electoral gains, especially as to the amendments of the electoral law and the six expat seats,” the reports added. Nidaa al-Watan meanwhile said that “presidential and political consultations between the Grand Serail, Ain el-Tineh and Mirna Chalouhi will intensify over the next few hours and days to crystallize the outlines of the sought bargain, especially that the Parliament Speaker will soon call for a legislative session.” Noting that the session might be held next week, to approve a host of draft laws, the daily added that should the FPM agree to the proposed “bargain,” Berri would then put the panel’s proposal to a vote.

Reports: Miqati to Proceed with Negotiations in Hope of Relaunching Govt.
Naharnet/November 30/2021 
Prime Minister Najib Miqati will proceed with calm negotiations to relaunch his government soon, sources said. Well informed sources told al-Joumhouria newspaper, in remarks published Tuesday, that Miqati is still optimistic about ending the Cabinet’s disruption.
“It is unlikely that Miqati will resign for he is certain that rescue steps can still be taken,” the sources said. On another note, the sources said that President Michel Aoun, Speaker Nabih Berri and Miqati will hold talks, after Aoun’s return from Qatar, to follow up on what the three leaders “had agreed on” during the independence meeting in Baabda. The sources, however, doubted that positive outcome could be reached because of the “complications” caused by the Judiciary’s decision to reject all the lawsuits filed against the state by former PM Hassan Diab and former ministers accused in the port blast case.

Fayad, Qatari counterpart tackle Qatar's gas supply for Electricité du Liban
NNA/November 30/2021
Minister of Energy, Walid Fayad, discussed with his Qatari counterpart Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi, issues of common interest to Lebanon and Qatar. A statement from Fayad's media office read: "With regard to securing gas for electricity plants, it was agreed on the importance of gasification of Qatari liquefied gas to feed the Electricité du Liban Corporation. It was also agreed that the easiest way to do so would be through the gasification of liquefied gas in a place other than Qatar. The Aqaba area in Jordan was chosen for this process takes place, after which the gas would be transported to the north of Lebanon via Syria." The statement indicated that "the gasification of Qatari liquefied gas in Aqaba needs Jordanian approval, of course, and Minister Fayad has started discussions thereon with his Jordanian counterpart. Talks are positive, and should be followed by practical implementation agreements to be concluded between the two sides.""The second point that was discussed during the meeting was about FSRU gasification stations, and this matter requires a final plan for the location, number and sizes of the stations. Minister Fayyad sensed Qatari interest in following up on this issue through the possibility of supplying liquefied gas and gasification services, and the Vice President of Qatar Energy Company for Commercial Affairs was appointed to follow up on this topic."
The issue of oil and gas exploration in exclusive economic waters was also discussed. "The Qatari side is awaiting positive news after the completion of drilling in Block 10 in Cyprus, and on its basis the extent of Qatari interest in oil and gas exploration in Lebanon and the extent to which there are opportunities to contribute to this will be determined." The Qatari side expressed all interest in cooperation with regard to the energy and gas strategy, and assistance in planning and working to help Lebanon at all levels.

UK Ambassador announces further support to Lebanese Army of 1.4 million USD
NNA/November 30/2021
At the High Level Steering Committee today, British Ambassador to Lebanon, Ian Collard, along with the US Ambassador, Dorothy Shea, and Canadian Ambassador, Chantal Chastenay, met the Lebanese Armed Forces’ commander, General Joseph Aoun, to discuss the security of the Lebanese-Syrian border. The discussions focused on the Lebanese Armed Forces’ mission to secure the entirety of the Lebanese-Syrian border and the challenges they are facing during Lebanon’s many crises. During the meeting, Ambassador Collard announced a $1.4 million uplift to strengthen LAF’s resilience with spare parts for Land Rovers previously donated by the UK Government and for protective personal equipment for female soldiers deployed on border operations. After the meeting, Ambassador Collard said: ‘It was a privilege to meet General Aoun, and to attend my first High Level Steering Committee. I congratulated General Aoun on the positive role that the Lebanese Armed Forces continue to play in safeguarding the country, as the sole legitimate defender of Lebanon’s people. Lebanon is experiencing an unprecedented crisis and the Lebanese Armed Forces are pivotal to ensure stability and safety for all citizens.
I am pleased to announce a donation of $1.4 million of spare parts for the Land Border Regiments as a part of the UK’s continuing support to the LAF. Since 2010, the UK has committed over £84 million, allowing the LAF to optimise its capabilities, develop and modernise to become a respected, professional armed forces able to defend Lebanon and provide security along its border with Syria. We remain proud partners of the Lebanese Armed Forces and we look forward to strengthening our military and security relations further.’
The joint border project has seen the deployment of four Land Border Regiments (and the Land Border Training School) from the North in Arida to the south in Jebel Al Sheikh in Protected Border Observation Posts and Forward Operating Bases, reinforcing the authority of the Lebanese state along its land border with Syria. -- UK Embassy

Geagea warns vote delay could condemn Lebanon to ‘slow death’
The Arab Weekly/November 30/2021
One of Lebanon’s main Christian politicians accused foe Hezbollah and its allies of working to postpone a parliamentary election set for March over fears of electoral losses, warning such a move would condemn Lebanon to a “slow death.”Western donors that Lebanon is relying on to stem its financial implosion have said the vote must go ahead. Politicians from all sides, including Shia Hezbollah, have repeatedly said it should happen otherwise the country’s standing would be dealt a further blow. But Samir Geagea, leader of the Lebanese Forces and an ally of Saudi Arabia, pointed the finger at Hezbollah and its ally President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement for moves to delay it “because they are near certain that they will lose their parliamentary majority.”Aoun said this month he would not sign authorisation for the vote, approved by parliament, to be held on March 27 as the date was too early.
Downward spiral
Asked whether a postponement would lead to more fighting after clashes last month between the Lebanese Forces and Hezbollah, Geagea, said: “Not fighting, but to more slow death.” “With the current way things are going, state institutions – and so the state – is dissolving day by day,” he said in an interview with Reuters at his residence in the mountains overlooking the coastal town of Jounieh. Lebanon has no reliable opinion polling but should the election take place, Geagea’s party is widely expected to make gains, with the Free Patriotic Movement expected to lose seats, potentially robbing Hezbollah of its majority.
Without an election to shake up parliament “you will see more of the same,” Geagea said. The United Nations says the economic meltdown has left nearly 80% of people in poverty. Lebanon’s government, formed from most major political parties in September following a 13-month period of political paralysis, has already not convened in nearly 50 days amid a push by Hezbollah and its allies to remove the judge investigating the deadly August 2020 Beirut port blast. Adding to the economic peril, Lebanon is facing a blast of Gulf Arab anger after a prominent broadcaster-turned-minister levelled blunt criticism at Saudi Arabia, in a row that has further strained Beirut’s ties with once generous benefactors. Geagea, who maintained close contact to the Saudi ambassador in Beirut, said Hezbollah’s increasing influence was the main problem behind the rift that is harmful to Lebanon’s economy.
“We see Saudi and the Gulf as economic lungs for Lebanon,” he said.
Street clashes
Geagea’s Lebanese Forces is the second largest Christian party in parliament. It has stayed out of the cabinet since a popular uprising against the sectarian elite in 2019. But the group was thrust back into the headlines when tensions over the probe erupted into the worst street violence in more than a decade last month, reviving memories of the country’s 1975-90 civil war. Seven people, all followers of Hezbollah and its ally Amal, were killed. Hezbollah accused the Lebanese Forces of ambushing its supporters at the protest. Geagea confirmed supporters of his party, along with others, were involved in the clashes, but denied the move was pre-meditated and blamed Hezbollah for entering Beirut’s mostly Christian Ain al-Remmaneh neighbourhood, a strong support base for the Lebanese Forces. During Lebanon’s civil war, the Lebanese Forces, under Geagea, was a right-wing militia that controlled swathes of territory including eastern Beirut. Following October’s clashes, Hezbollah’s leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah accused it of seeking to start a sectarian conflict and warned Hezbollah had 100,000 fighters at his disposal. Geagea denied Nasrallah’s allegation that the Lebanese Forces had 15,000 fighters, saying the party had 35,000 members of whom only some had personal arms and perhaps more than 10,000 – “the whole old generation” – had military training. Geagea said the Lebanese Forces did not seek a physical confrontation with Hezbollah and were not concerned about the breakout of sectarian violence due to the role of the Lebanese Army in maintaining civil peace. However, he said he had limited his movement and was not leaving his mountain residence in Maarab due to security threats, without giving further details.

Bou Habib partakes in UfM 6th Regional Forum

NNA/November 30/2021
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants, Abdallah Bou Habib, has participated in the sixth Regional Forum of the Union for the Mediterranean held in Barcelona. On the sidelines of the event, Bou Habib held talks with his Spanish counterpart Jose Manuel Albares, over the bilateral relations and the assistance Spain is providing Lebanon with, especially in the field of education. The pair also discussed the Spanish Minister's imminent visit to Beirut. Moreover, Bou Habib met with his Montenegrin counterpart over the means to improve the bilateral ties between Lebanon and Montenegro.
He later held a meeting with UfM Secretary General Nasser Kamel.

Hezbollah still trying to deliver fuel to Lebanon - analysis
Seth J. Frantzman/Jerusalem Post/November 30/2021
This is a ploy to let Hezbollah control Lebanon’s energy needs and help it in its mafia-like stranglehold over Lebanon.
Iranian media said the “second phase” of distribution of Iranian diesel fuel to Lebanon would occur as winter begins. The claims portray Lebanese Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah as helping Lebanon during a fuel crisis. In fact, this is a ploy to let Hezbollah control Lebanon’s energy needs and help it in its mafia-like stranglehold over Lebanon. Iran wants to gain influence and fame for “helping” Lebanon. “Speaking to Al-Ahd News website about the Hezbollah plan to distribute diesel fuel to hundreds of thousands of families, Hajj Ali al-Zain, the mayor of a district in southern Lebanon, said that the plan was being pursued by 77 municipalities to provide heating services to the people, especially residents,” Tasnim reported. In September, the BBC reported that Hezbollah also brought fuel to Lebanon.
“The process of distributing diesel is also carried out away from any regional, sectarian or political considerations, and the officials of each region, if they contact Hezbollah for fuel, will receive the services after conducting the necessary checks,” the report says. In a sense what is revealed here is that Hezbollah, which has only 12 of 128 of seats in Lebanon’s parliament, now not only controls a parallel communication network, runs its own terrorist army in Lebanon, conducts Lebanon’s foreign policy, and now controls banking, housing, supermarkets and fuel in the country. “Iranian diesel is distributed in 50 stations, equivalent to 400,000 liters per day at the request of municipalities, and based on this, people can receive diesel from stations designated by ‘Al Amaneh’ company at a specified price,” the report says.
Hezbollah is doing a heating project in the Bekaa Valley. This Amaneh company is now distributing fuel to people in various places, the report claims.
“Municipalities will spare no effort to support the people and try to reduce the cost of distributing fuel among the people, and Hezbollah seeks to support poor families,” the report says. Hezbollah wants make itself essential this winter, sitting astride fuel needs so everyone will need Hezbollah and it will become more powerful and profit from the suffering of the people. Hezbollah officials said, “On the advice of Hassan Nasrallah, diesel would be distributed to the people through municipalities that cooperate with fuel stations in villages and cities.”
Supposedly, hundreds of thousands of families will benefit from the scheme within a month. The report goes on to list some municipalities that signed up to get Iranian fuel. “Sources familiar with the project explained that Hezbollah’s plan to distribute diesel among Lebanese families was carefully planned and that it should be ensured that applicants use this diesel only for heating their homes. Two days ago, Lebanese sources reported that the Lebanese subsidized diesel supply project, which is part of Hezbollah’s initiative to solve the country’s problems, will begin in a few days.”
Hezbollah poses as helping nursing homes and orphanages and that it is helping some 320 municipalities “build water wells.” It also helps supply 22 government hospitals and 71 fire brigades. It seems Hezbollah now has a state named Lebanon within its network of control. Hezbollah’s secretary-general added, “A barrel of diesel will be sold to Lebanese households for less than the official price of one million lira, will be paid in lira, and according to our estimates, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese households will benefit from this project.”

Healthcare as luxury
Dana Hourany/Now Lebanon/November 30/2021
Between shortages and skyrocketing prices, a trip to the pharmacy in Lebanon exposes huge inequalities, while a trip to a charity clinic for treatment has become the norm for hundreds of thousands of people.
A box of medicine at a local pharmacy with the price tag scratched off due to the spike in prices. Photo credit : Dana Hourany, NOW.
Layla Kanso, 65, lives alone in her apartment in Haret Hreik, Beirut. She has no source of income besides what her three brothers are able to spare for her.
For months, since the economic crisis worsened as the state ran out of money for subsidies on fuel and basic needs, including food, her expenses dwindled to just food and medicine.
Health minister Firas Abiad announced earlier this month the partial lifting of subsidies on medicine, including on some drugs for chronic illnesses. This resulted in a price hike on most medicines.
According to Abiad, the Lebanese state now spends $35 million on medical subsidies each month, down from $130 million prior to subsidy cuts. But that means that most Lebanese, like Kanso, have to spend much more on medicine, and many have to simply give up treatment.
“I suffer from high blood pressure and I’m currently on my last box of medication. But if I can’t afford it then I’m going to stop it,” Kanso told NOW.
Kanso has already stopped treating her stomach ulcers and degenerating eyesight because of the increasing prices. One box of vitamins prescribed to improve her eyesight now costs 80 percent of the minimum wage in Lebanon.
“I used to take specific vitamins for my eyes that are now worth 400,000 LBP, compared to their previous price of 30,000 LBP,” she said.
And that isn’t the only sacrifice she’s made.
“I no longer buy meat or chicken and rarely buy cheese. I eat very basic food made up of rice, lentils, and eggs. I save up the money to be able to afford medicine,” she stated.
Proper healthcare and medication have become luxuries for most Lebanese, as treating a chronic illness now costs most of an average income. This is assuming the medicine is available in the first place.
At the top of a new priority list
Lebanon experienced a medicine shortage in the summer, with pharmacies closing their doors as importing companies stacked up vital subsidized medicine and waited for subsidies to be lifted and prices to increase. The state was running out of resources, payments were late, and businesses, including medicine importers, did not trust that the government would pay in time.
Former interim Health minister Hamad Hassan raided numerous medicine storage facilities in search of violations. Meanwhile, as NOW reported during the shortage, diaspora initiatives helped provide lifesaving medicine, delivered by expats in suitcases.
But while most medications are now once again available in pharmacies, albeit at much higher prices, various inequalities have become much more pronounced, pharmacists say.
“It’s not only about the price of the medication, it’s also about the availability. Not all pharmacies carry all medicines so people have to look everywhere,” Tareq, a pharmacist in Beirut, told NOW. For example, medicine that treats diabetes is scarce at the moment, he said.
Two women entered the pharmacy. The first one held a prescription in hand and said she was shocked to find the medicine she asked for.
“I’ve been looking all over for this blood pressure medicine for my mom, I can’t believe I finally found it. I don’t care about the price, I just need it,” she told NOW. She then rushed to get the money from her car.
The second woman then entered with another prescription in hand for a strong pain killer to soothe a toothache. When she heard the price she then asked for an ice cube.
“I see these people all the time. She knew she couldn’t afford the medicine, she was just using it as an excuse to get free ice. Some people can’t even afford that,” the pharmacist said.
Tareq also explained that, while inequalities have become more apparent, the number of people coming to his pharmacy did not drop. The reason, he says, is that most people save money by skimping on food and other goods to be able to afford the necessary medication.
“Some people used to prioritize outings, certain food, and some even luxurious products. Now they can only afford the bare necessities. So people’s priorities changed, now medicine is no longer taken for granted on the monthly budget list, it’s the top priority.”
Annoir Shayya, 31, a doctor of Hematology and Oncology at LAU Medical Center, explained that buying medicine is already, for most Lebanese, a matter of sacrifice. Many use the last of their life savings to buy needed medications, while some parents must choose to feed their children, rather than afford medication for their own illnesses.
Staying afloat
Shayya, 31, says he just started out his career, just seven months ago.
“You start wondering why you even studied medicine, you can’t help people nor can you do your job well,” the doctor told NOW.
“With cancer treatments, there are also other medications used to treat side effects such as intestinal problems and nausea. Leukemia, for example, renders the person’s immune system weak and makes them more susceptible to infections,” the doctor explained.
In order to procure these medicines for patients in need, Shayya says he had to develop a new skill: navigating his social network to find ad-hoc solutions through friends, other patients and charities.
His latest attempt was at procuring Venetoclax, a drug used to treat leukemia, through another patient that had kept it hidden. He also relied on NGOs such as Barbara Nassar Association for Cancer Patient Support to help with the sourcing process.
Shayya described a growing disparity amongst the Lebanese classes where the dollar-earning citizens and residents are unfazed by a 10 million LBP (the high end of the current average salary in Lebanon) deposit for hospital admission, while others are unable to afford 400,000 LBP for a test.
Locally manufactured medicines have been around for years, and are more affordable than imported medicines. Pharmacists and patients alike, however, have only recently turned to the local producers, and remain wary over the unregulated industry and lack of supervision that has allowed fake painkillers and placebos to be sold on the market.
“We have really good medicines that we should invest in, instead of putting our money on imported ones. But we have a culture that fears everything Lebanese made. We probably blame it on the lack of supervision on a lot of things,” Shayya stated.
Tareq also explained that his pharmacy always carried local alternatives but that not everyone was interested in them, due to doubts over quality.
Shayya considers the personal efforts made by the Lebanese abroad, NGOs and healthcare centers that offered cheap consultations the only things that have kept the healthcare system afloat.
“The number of patients isn’t going down, because we have fewer doctors now so we have more workload. There are ways to get a good consultation for little to no money but treatment through the right medicine is still questionable,” the doctor explained.
Charity clinics have seen a spike in number of patients since 2019, with many Lebanese not able to afford medical care. Photo credit : Courtesy of Oumayma Farah.
Relying on charity
Kanso, who faces the impossibility of treating her blood pressure, heard that there were some health centers that offered free consultations and medication, but she says she doesn’t know where to find them.
The ministry of health has 248 centers spread out all over the country that provide primary health care services that the ministry detailed as such; mother and child health, nutrition, environmental health, communicable and non-communicable diseases, immunization, mental health, awareness campaigns, and dental health.
The Order of Malta in Lebanon has nine Community Health Centers that follow the Primary Healthcare Program set by the Ministry of Public Health in Kobayat, Khaldieh, Barqa, Zouk Mikael, Kefraya, Roum, Siddikine, Yaroun and Ain El Remmaneh, and two in collaboration with the Lebanese Army in Rmeich and Raas Baalbek, as well as seven mobile medical outreach operations in Kefraya, Ras Baalbek, Akkar, Siddikine, Yaroun and Zgharta and Roum.
“Following a vulnerability assessment, the patient’s participation of his fees vary between 18. 000 LBP, 3.000 LBP or completely for free ” Oumayma Farah, head of communication at the Order of Malta Lebanon told NOW.
So far, the centers have been able to navigate through medicines provided by the ministry – mainly the ones provided for chronic illnesses- as well as alternatives they receive using their channels of donations. They also maintained their minimum consultation symbolic participation fee of 3,000 LBP whenever applied according to the vulnerability assessment so that “the patients don’t feel like they’re begging for their health basic rights ” Farah explained.
The organization has to rely on donations to be able to cover the patients’ fees. The process begins with a checkup with the family doctor that then refers the patient to the required specialist or medical exams if needed, and prescribes medication, to be taken from the center’s pharmacy.
Farah described a spike in the number of medical acts performed in the centers rising from 200,000 in 2019 to 450,000 in 2021.
She also said that because of the rising needs, the charity is going beyond primary healthcare and is launching on December 1st a specialized clinic for neurodegenerative diseases, mental health and oncology consultations and exams, in Achrafieh (facing Hôtel-Dieu de France). The plan is to later relocate it to a revamped center in Ain el Remmaneh in the first quarter of 2022.
Another issue such health centers face is the hesitancy of many patients. The reasons, Farah explains, vary from feeling undignified due to the shock of suddenly finding themselves in need of asking help from a charity, to dreading the tiresome process of having to wait in line for hours before receiving consultation due to the high volume of patients.
“Many people used to have insurance and didn’t need anyone to help them with their medical coverage and now it feels weird for them to start asking for help [from a charity]. Our message to these people is your health is your priority, we stand by your side, just show up and we’ll take care of you in the best possible way,” Farah said
*Dana Hourany is a multimedia journalist with @NOW_leb. She is on Instagram @danahourany and twitter @danahourany

The Lebanese Information Center Gives Two Million in Aid to Lebanon
November 30, 2021
For Immediate Release/Contact: joanna@theresolute.group
WASHINGTON, D.C.— Beginning in August 2020 and throughout the first half of 2021, the Lebanese Information Center (LIC) and its sister organization Children of Mary Inc. (COM) raised two million dollars in cash and in-kind donations to extend humanitarian aid to Lebanese families and citizens affected by the ongoing political and economic crises gripping Lebanon. The Beirut port explosion, the rapid devaluation of the Lebanese lira, and the lack of meaningful economic reform have left those living in Lebanon without access to medicine, food, fuel, electricity, and many basic goods and services.
Beginning in August 2020 and throughout the first half of 2021, LIC and COM distributed the funds to vetted humanitarian organizations working on the ground in Lebanon. The funds were distributed as follows:
$650,000 to Ground Zero to rebuild homes in Beirut following the port blast
$400,000 to Red in Circle Association to provide food rations to needy families
$320,000 to Cedars Medical Association for medical equipment and COVID-19 vaccines
$100,000 to sponsor 1,000 families for one year providing for their everyday essential needs
$500,000 of in-kind donations, including two ambulances, wheelchairs, and other desperately needed medical equipment to Lebanese hospitals and medical institutions
We at the LIC would like to extend our deepest gratitude to our network of fundraisers who made this humanitarian drive organized, effective, and transparent. They used every means possible, including GoFundMe, PayPal, matching funds, car raffles, and private donations, to bring much-needed aid to Lebanon. We are grateful for the generosity of our partners and the LIC grassroots chapters nationwide, as well as the trusted local and international organizations with whom we partnered in this effort. But more importantly, we want to extend our heartfelt gratitude to the Lebanese-Americans and friends of Lebanon that were moved by the cries for help from Lebanon's devastated people. Without you, none of this would have been possible.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 30-December 01/2021
Iran's Raisi Says Ending Sanctions Key to Vienna Talks
Agence France Presse/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Iran's president has assured his French counterpart that his government is serious about resumed talks on reviving a 2015 nuclear deal but stressed that lifting U.S. sanctions is the absolute priority. President Ebrahim Raisi's comments in a phone call with Emmanuel Macron on Monday evening were his first after the reopening of the talks in Vienna earlier in the day. Raisi said that Washington has a special responsibility to rebuild confidence in the agreement as it was then U.S. president Donald Trump who had brought it to its knees in 2018 by pulling out and reimposing sweeping sanctions. "Those who have started to violate the nuclear deal must gain the confidence of the other party for the negotiations to proceed in a real and fruitful manner," he said. Raisi said Iran was serious about the talks on reviving the agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and expected its negotiating partners to be so too. "Sending a full team to the talks shows Iran's serious will in these talks," he said. "If the Americans lift the sanctions and the Europeans honor their commitments... Iran will meet its obligations too." Raisi said Iran stood ready to resume "full cooperation" with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, which was tasked with monitoring Iran's implementation of the strict limits on its nuclear activities it agreed to in 2015 in return for the lifting of international sanctions.
- 'Resume obligations' -
A statement issued by the French presidency after the phone call said that France's goal in the talks was to "see Iran return to full respect for all of its commitments under the JCPOA and that the United States return to the agreement". Macron "underscored the need for Iran to engage constructively in this direction so that the exchanges allow a swift return to the agreement," it said. "Iran must return without delay to compliance with all its commitments and obligations... and quickly resume cooperation that allows the (UN atomic) agency to fully carry out its mission."In a separate phone call with UN chief Antonio Guterres on Monday evening, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian promised that Iran would resume its obligations under the nuclear deal as soon as the other parties did so too. "The other parties must resume their obligations in full," he said. "When that happens, Iran will halt its compensatory measures."
He was referring to Iran's tit-for-tat suspension of key undertakings in the 2015 deal that has seen it enrich uranium in larger quantities and to higher levels of purity than it had originally promised. The talks in Vienna are the first since Iran paused them after Raisi's election in June and then ignored Western appeals to restart them for several months. The remaining parties to the 2015 agreement Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia are participating directly. At Iran's insistence, the United States is doing so only indirectly. The EU chair of the talks, Enrique Mora, said after the first session on Monday that he felt "extremely positive", although he acknowledged that "difficult issues" had yet to be tackled.

Iran Makes Maximalist Demands as Vienna Nuclear Talks Open
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Iran struck a maximalist tone Tuesday after just one day of restarted talks in Vienna over its tattered nuclear deal, suggesting everything discussed in previous rounds of diplomacy could be renegotiated. Iranian state media reported the comments by Ali Bagheri, Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, and Mohammed Eslami, the country's civilian nuclear chief. It remained unclear, however, whether this represented an opening gambit by Iran's new hard-line president or signaled serious trouble for those hoping to restore the 2015 deal that saw Tehran strictly limit its enrichment of uranium in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions.The United States left the deal under then-President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran in 2018. Since the deal’s collapse, Iran now enriches small amounts of uranium up to 60% purity — a short step from weapons-grade levels of 90%. Iran also spins advanced centrifuges barred by the accord, and its uranium stockpile now far exceeds the accord’s limits. President Joe Biden has said America's willing to re-enter the deal, though the negotiations continue with US officials not in the room as in previous rounds of talks since Washington's withdrawal.
Speaking to Iranian state television, Bagheri referred to the previous rounds of talks only as a “draft.”
“Drafts are subject to negotiation. Therefore nothing is agreed on unless everything has been agreed on,” he said. "On that basis, all discussions that took place in the six rounds are summarized and are subject to negotiations. This was admitted by all parties in today’s meeting as well.”
Another state TV segment saw Bagheri in Vienna also saying Iran demanded a “guarantee by American not to impose new sanctions” or not re-impose previously lifted sanctions. Eslami, speaking to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency, reiterated that demand.
“The talks (in Vienna) are about return of the US to the deal and they have to lift all sanctions and this should be in practice and verifiable,” he said. He did not elaborate. Talks in Vienna resumed Monday after an over five-month hiatus as hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi took power. Raisi, a protégé of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, campaigned on getting sanctions lifted. However, fellow hard-liners within Iran's theocracy long have criticized the nuclear deal as giving too much away to the West. Iran's comments Tuesday stood in stark contrast to the optimistic tone offered by the European Union diplomat leading the talks. “I feel positive that we can be doing important things for the next weeks,” Enrique Mora told reporters on Monday.
Mikhail Ulyanov, Russia's top representative to the talks, also tweeted Tuesday that the resumption of negotiations was “quite successful.” “Participants decided to continue without delay the drafting process in two working groups - on sanctions lifting and nuclear issues," he wrote. "This work starts immediately.”
Israel, Iran's regional, nuclear-armed rival, kept up its own pressure amid the negotiations. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, in a video address delivered to nations negotiating in Vienna, warned that he saw Iran trying to “end sanctions in exchange for almost nothing.”“Iran deserves no rewards, no bargain deals and no sanctions relief in return for their brutality,” Bennett said in the video that he later posted to Twitter. “I call upon our allies around the world: Do not give in to Iran’s nuclear blackmail.”Iran maintains its atomic program is peaceful. However, US intelligence agencies and international inspectors say Iran had an organized nuclear weapons program up until 2003. Nonproliferation experts fear the brinkmanship could push Tehran toward even more extreme measures to try to force the West to lift sanctions.Making matters more difficult, United Nations nuclear inspectors remain unable to fully monitor Iran’s program after Tehran limited their access. A trip to Iran last week by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, failed to make any progress on that issue.

Report: Iran May Use its Cyber Tool to Achieve Regional Interests
Dubai/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Iran will use its cyber tools much more aggressively to promote regional interests and will continue to target Israel and others in the Middle East, a recent report warned. The report by Mandiant Research Company, entitled "14 Cyber Security Predictions for 2022 and Beyond," said that the Iranian-backed parties have shown their capability and willingness to use destructive malware, so "we expect them to take advantage of any opportunities that are presented.""Ultimately, we'll see Iran trying to create more of a power balance shifted to its own interests. We have seen them targeting abroad, but their targeting will most likely be regional throughout 2022." The annual report pointed out that with the assertion of Taliban control and departure of US forces from Afghanistan, "we can expect further cyber espionage and information operations.""We will start to see the usual information operations actors—Iran, China, Russia—push narratives to support their interests through the end of 2021 and into 2022."The report warned that they would also play up negative perceptions around the events, notably the perception that failed to live up to commitments to organizations and countries. It indicated that the ransomware threat had grown significantly throughout the past decade, and it will continue its upward trend. The ransomware business is simply "too lucrative" unless international governments and technology innovations can fundamentally alter the attacker's cost-benefit calculation. VP MEA at Mandiant Gordon Love said that the only constant is the uncertainty in the cyber realm. "Attackers keep evolving – getting more sophisticated and changing their tactics, techniques, and procedures to try to get one up on the defenders," said Love. "Organizations have a lot to keep in mind for next year, but remaining vigilant will enable them to defend against upcoming threats—and respond to those that inevitably get through."Mandiant noted that throughout 2021 low sophistication threat actors learned that they could create significant impacts in the operational technology space, perhaps even more extensive than they intended. "Actors will continue to explore the operational technology space in 2022 and increasingly use ransomware in their attacks."The report suspects that organizations using cloud and cloud-hosted providers may become more vulnerable to compromises, as well as errors, vulnerabilities, mis-configurations, or outages affecting cloud resources. "In the coming years, we expect to see a continued growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) devices, many of which will be inexpensive and created without real consideration given to security."

Iraq’s Sadrist bloc confirmed biggest election winner
The Arab Weekly/November 30/2021
Iraq’s Shia firebrand cleric Moqtada Sadr was Tuesday confirmed the biggest winner of last month’s parliamentary election that had sparked charges of voter fraud from pro-Iranian factions. Sadr’s movement won 73 out of the assembly’s 329 seats, the election commission said, after a lengthy manual recount of hundreds of ballot boxes. A distant second in the Shia camp with 17 seats was the Fatah (Conquest) Alliance, the political arm of the pro-Iran Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces PMF) paramilitary organisation, which is now nominally integrated into Iraq’s state security apparatus. PMF leaders had rejected the preliminary result, which was sharply down from their 48 seats in the outgoing assembly, as a “scam”, and their supporters have held street protests chanting “No to fraud”. Their activists have staged sit-in protests outside Baghdad’s ultra-secure Green Zone district, where the government, the assembly and many foreign embassies are located. Analysts have warned that — in a country still recovering from decades of war and chaos, and where most parties have armed wings — political disputes could spark a dangerous escalation. On November 7, Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi — leader of the outgoing government — escaped unhurt when an explosive-packed drone hit his Baghdad residence. The attack was not claimed by any group.
Backroom negotiations
The final results must now be sent to the federal court for ratification.
The formation of Iraqi governments has involved complex negotiations in the multi-confessional and multi-ethnic country ever since a US-led invasion toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003.Posts and ministries have typically been handed out according to compromises reached by the main blocs in backroom talks, rather than to reflect the numbers of seats parties have won. Sadr, a former leader of an anti-US militia who has often surprised observers with his political manoeuvres, has called for a “majority” government which, analysts say, could include Sunni and Kurdish parties. Iraq, an oil-rich country of 40 million, is still recovering from years of conflict and turmoil. Major fighting has stopped since a military alliance including the Hashed defeated the Islamic State jihadist group in 2017, but sporadic violence continues. Military bases housing US troops have been targeted with dozens of missile and drone strikes which Washington blames on pro-Iran factions.Tensions culminated weeks after the election with the unclaimed drone attack against Kadhimi.

UN Security Council Discusses War Crimes in Syria
Washington - Elie Youssef/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
The UN Security Council held a special session to discuss the war crimes in Syria for the first time in several years. The Security Council Arria-formula meeting on accountability in Syria was held under direct sponsorship from Estonia, France, the UK, and the US, with additional co-sponsors Belgium, Canada, Germany, Georgia, Liechtenstein, the Netherlands, Qatar, Sweden, and Turkey. They held an informal briefing of the Security Council on increased efforts to establish full accountability for the most severe international crimes committed in Syria. The Security Council said that it hopes to deal with the relevant institutions to play their role to bring justice for the serious crimes that took place in Syria, adding that despite efforts made by the UN, some countries, and other actors, the response was poor compared to the atrocities committed.
Speakers at the opening session included head of the International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism (IIIM) Catherine Marchi-Uhel, Syrian refugee, public speaker, and human rights activist Omar al-Shogre, and Syrian journalist and film director Waad al-Khatib. The Syrian Emergency Task Force (SETF) welcomed the efforts of the Security Council members on the need to take action after years of silence as the "[Bashar] Assad regime and its allies continue to commit the most heinous international crimes."In a statement, it said "it will stress the importance of accountability to prevent further atrocities, as well as in the attempts to deliver justice to the countless victims and their families." The Task Force confirmed that the regime is responsible for the atrocities of the last decade in Syria, "ninety percent of which were committed by the Assad regime, are the worst crimes of this 21st century."
"Fortunately, individuals are now being tried in Germany and elsewhere, including for the tortured evidenced by the Caesar photos." The Security Council session is a "chance to revitalize discussions towards creating a dedicated court or tribunal to address the worst crimes under international law and the need for greater collective action by to hold the major perpetrators to account and to deter these crimes in the future," read the statement. Head of the SETF Mouaz Moustafa told Asharq Al-Awsat that the session is crucial because it was held many years after Syrians, affected by war crimes committed by the regime, were prevented from taking action. He indicated that hearing the members of the Council discussing evidence suggesting the regime's responsibility for the majority of war crimes committed in Syria during the ongoing war gives hope for accountability for those involved.

Palestinian President: We May Be Forced to Take New Course of Action to Counter Israeli Practices
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas warned Monday that Israel’s continued undermining of the two-state solution and its apartheid regime will force the Palestinian Authority to take different and important decisions next year. “We reiterate our absolute rejection of the continuation of the Israel's occupation of the land of the State of Palestine, and of racial discrimination and ethnic cleansing against our Palestinian people,” Abbas said in a televised speech at the conference on "Self-Liberation of the Palestinians: Producing Resistance Knowledge". Abbas said the PA is still reaching out to achieve a just and comprehensive peace according to the two-state solution and international resolutions and under the auspices of the International Quartet. However, he warned that Israel's ongoing undermining of the two-state solution and its apartheid practices "will force us to resort to other options if the occupation does not reverse its actions.""We may be forced to take important decisions which we will discuss in the next PLO Central Council meeting, which will be held early next year." The PLO Central Council is expected to hold a meeting next January to place a work plan for the initiative that Abbas launched last September at the UN, where he called on the Secretary-General to convene an international peace conference. Abbas’ threats come amid growing frustration with the US administration’s slow approach in supporting political efforts aimed at ending the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

Morocco's King Calls for Rebuilding Trust Between Palestinians, Israelis
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Morocco's King Mohammed VI called Monday for building trust between Palestinians and Israelis with a view to resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. He stressed Rabat will press ahead with its efforts in order to ensure the right conditions for a return of the two sides to the negotiating table.
"I call, once again, for the launching of an intensive and effective diplomatic effort to get the parties back to the negotiating table in order to settle the Palestinian issue within the framework of the two-state solution and thus build a promising future for upcoming Palestinian and Israeli generations," he said in a message to the Chairman of the Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People, Cheikh Niang, on the occasion of the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People. The monarch called on the international community to help the two parties build trust and refrain from any practices that undermine the peace process, recalling that seven years have now passed since direct negotiations between the Palestinian and Israeli sides stopped. "During that period, trust between the two parties has vanished. That trust could have been leveraged to implement the solution desired by the international community," he stressed, adding that the impasse in the Middle East peace process places a heavy burden as well as a great responsibility on the international community - and more particularly on the influential countries - to overcome the complex, intertwined obstacles that prevent any breakthrough in the political domain. King Mohammed said Morocco will press ahead with its efforts in order to bring about the right conditions for a return to the negotiating table as the only means to put an end to the conflict and ensure security and stability in the Middle-East region. "However, no matter how sincere the intentions may be, no effort can succeed in the face of unilateral measures that destroy the chances of peace and fuel violence and hatred," he warned, reaffirming Morocco's immutable position regarding the justness of the Palestinian cause. He added that the Moroccan position does not change according to circumstances, nor is it governed by some pointless political outbidding tactics. Rather, he said: “It is the embodiment of a conviction which is deeply rooted in the consciousness of the Moroccan people and which is backed by serious, purposeful diplomatic endeavors as well as tangible work on the ground for the benefit of the just cause of Palestine and Jerusalem.” The King called for the preservation of the Arab and Islamic identity of Jerusalem as well as its legal, demographic and historical status. "It is important to make sure the holy city is open to the followers of the monotheistic religions, who should coexist in an environment where fraternity, affection and peace prevail," he said. King Mohammed also expressed his full support for the Palestinian Authority, under the leadership of President Mahmoud Abbas, in its efforts to fulfill the aspirations of the Palestinian people for freedom, independence, unity and prosperity.

Arab Coalition Strikes Iran Revolutionary Guards Targets in Sanaa
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
The Saudi-led Arab coalition said on Tuesday that it has carried out air strikes against "legitimate military targets" of the Iran-backed Houthi militias in Yemen's Sanaa. The coalition said it struck a secret location for Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) experts in Sanaa. It also destroyed a location that was used to store and build ballistic missiles inside the Houthi-held capital city. The coalition called on civilians against gathering close to or approaching the targeted areas. Tuesday's operation is in line with international humanitarian law, stressed the coalition. Earlier this month, the coalition had warned that Sanaa International Airport has been transformed by the Houthis into a military base for their operations and those of the IRGC and Hezbollah party. On Sunday, the coalition said the Houthis were exploiting areas that enjoy legal immunity to carry out cross-border attacks. It vowed to take the necessary legal measures to drop this immunity if required in order to protect civilians.

Probe in Iraqi PM Assassination Plot Reaches Significant Leads
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Iraq's national security advisor, Qassem al-Araji announced on Monday that the investigation into the failed assassination attempt against Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi had reached significant leads. During a press briefing, he said the probe has acquired evidence, but fell short of determining the perpetrators.
Moreover, he added that the investigating team was surprised that the forensic evidence team had detonated a second unexploded ordinance used in the attack before it could lift fingerprints from it. The people involved in detonating the device have since been referred to the interior ministry, he revealed. Kadhimi had survived a drone attack on his residence earlier this month in what was seen as an attempt on his life. The unexploded device was found on the roof of his house the day after the attack. The investigation needs more time to pursue the leads to uncover the truth, stressed Araji. The team has managed to determine the coordinates from where the drones that targeted the PM's house were flown, he continued. The drones dropped two explosives on the house: one fell on the roof and the other in the yard. On the political debate the attack has sparked and the suspicions harbored by pro-Iran factions that Kadhimi had set up the attack himself, Araji said the investigators invite anyone to provide evidence.The team is carrying out its tasks away from pressure because this is its national duty, he stressed. The team has yet to accuse a party or suspect as it needs more time, he stated.The prime minister has ordered the team to be objective and professional and for national interest to be its ultimate goal, he added.

Erdogan Says Also Plans Steps with Egypt, Israel after UAE Visit
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey would take steps to improve ties with Egypt and Israel similar those in recent weeks with the United Arab Emirates, which led to investments, NTV and other broadcasters said. Ankara and Abu Dhabi signed accords for billions of dollars of investments last week and Erdogan said they would herald a "new era" in ties.As part of a charm offensive launched last year, Turkey has also moved to repair ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia but those talks have yielded little public improvement. Earlier this month, Erdogan also held a rare phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett after Turkey's release of a detained Israeli couple. "They (UAE) put up a $10 billion investment plan. By putting this $10 billion into place, we will have built a very different future," Erdogan was cited as telling reporters on a flight back from Turkmenistan, adding he would visit the UAE in February. "Whatever kind of step was taken with the UAE, we will also take similar ones with the others (Israel and Egypt)," he said, in response to a question about ties with Tel Aviv and Cairo.

Congress Adheres To Targeted Sanctions In Sudan
Washington – Rana Abtar/Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
The US Congress has returned to convening its sessions after a week-long holiday on Thanksgiving. The governing body awaits tackling an agenda saturated with outstanding issues that lawmakers have vowed to address quickly. One of the most prominent files to be handled by Congress is the subject of sanctions against “destabilizers” in Sudan. Despite the agreement reached between Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and Chairman of the Sovereignty Council Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, members of Congress did not abandon their insistence to present the draft of individual sanctions to “obstructers of democracy, peace, and accountability in Sudan.” As soon as the Senate met on Monday evening, it began discussing the defense budget bill and the amendments attached to it, such as the mentioned sanctions bill that Democratic Senator Chris Coons included in the budget bill. Coons had introduced a draft resolution imposing sanctions on any military officials found responsible for obstructing Sudan’s democratic transition. “The legislation mandates the imposition of targeted sanctions against individual actors that undermine a civilian-led democratic transition, peace, and human rights in Sudan,” said a statement released by Senator Coons. The member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee further condemned the brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters after the 25th of October coup. “This is unacceptable and unconscionable, and those responsible must be held accountable for the blood on their hands,” he said. Coons, who the US president had previously entrusted with tasks related to the Horn of Africa, considered that the Sudanese people will decide whether the agreement between Hamdok and Al-Burhan “constitutes progress for the country.”

Anti-military Protesters to March on Sudan’s Presidential Palace
Asharq Al-Awsat/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
Protesters plan to march across Sudan and on the presidential palace on Tuesday in the latest protest against military rule following last month's coup. Neighborhood resistance committees called the protests despite an agreement last week that reinstated civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and brought the release of most top politicians detained since the coup. The Oct. 25 takeover ended a partnership with civilian political groups since the toppling of Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and drew condemnation from Western powers who have suspended aid. The committees and political parties have rejected the deal, but Hamdok said it would bring the release of dozens of detainees, end a crackdown on protesters that has seen 42 people die, and preserve billions in foreign aid. Wagdi Salih, popular leader of a controversial anti-corruption taskforce, was released late on Monday night, according to his Twitter account and sources close to him. However, Salih and others including still-detained politicians Ibrahim al-Sheikh and Ismail al-Tag, face charges of inciting the armed forces, lawyer Moiz Hadra said. "There are still detainees in Soba prison in Khartoum, men, women and children who were arrested during the protests under the state of emergency and we demand their release along with others across Sudan's states," he added. "We will continue the popular escalation along with all the true revolutionary forces, until the complete demise of the junta," said the civilian coalition, known as the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), in a statement early on Tuesday.Referencing top military generals, the Khartoum committees said on Monday they "do not differentiate between Hamdok or Burhan or Hemedti and the rest of the generals, they are all participants in the coup and belong in the gallows."
Military ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has said the takeover was needed to set Sudan's transition back on track and that peaceful rallies are allowed. Deaths during protests are being investigated, he has said, blaming police and armed political factions.

Has Abu Dhabi crown prince’s visit to Ankara prompted Erdogan to operate a foreign policy reset?
The Arab Weekly/November 30/2021
The Turkish president said on Monday that he would visit the UAE, Egypt and Israel. The recent visit by Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to Turkey seems to have had a clear impact on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said on Monday that he would visit the UAE, Egypt and Israel. This, observers said, conveyed the impression of a foreign policy reset by the Turkish president. Abu Dhabi’s crown prince visited Ankara last week, making his first official trip to Turkey since 2012 and the highest-level visit by an Emirati official since relations between the two countries hit a low. Analysts said the crown prince’s trip encouraged Erdogan to shed some of his illusions and to put interests ahead of slogans. They pointed out that during the visit, the UAE made promises of substantial investments in Turkey. Sheikh Mohammed also avoided directly blaming Ankara for its past hostility towards the Emirates.The Turkish president announced on Monday that he intended to visit the UAE next February and said his country will take steps with Egypt and Israel, that are similar to those it is taking with the UAE. It is not known what initiatives the Turkish president might produce to show his determination to shed the policies that have caused his country many problems and contributed to the severe economic crisis Ankara faces today. It remains to be seen, however, if and how he can regain the confidence of regional leaders.
The UAE is perceived by experts to have taken the initiative on rapprochement with Turkey. This is based on its own strategy of reducing problems with regional neighbours to the minimum in order to devote itself to national development projects. But other countries in the region will undoubtedly wait for clearer signals from Erdogan over his regional agendas and his willingness to introduce sufficient confidence-building concessions with them.
Erdogan is usually keen to suggest that overtures to other states such as Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, come at the request of the opposite side, not his. This approach has cast doubt on the sincerity of his willingness to break out of the isolation into which he has thrust his country since the wave of “Arab Spring” protests. “God willing, I will make a return visit to the UAE in February,” Erdogan told journalists. He added, “They (UAE) put up a $10 billion investment plan. By putting this $10 billion into place, we will have built a very different future,” Erdogan was cited as telling reporters on a flight back from Turkmenistan, adding he would visit the UAE in February. “Whatever kind of step was taken with the UAE, we will also take similar ones with the others (Israel and Egypt),” he said, in response to a question about ties with Tel Aviv and Cairo.
He pointed out that, “mutual talks have continued at the level of the intelligence services (between Turkey and the UAE), as did our commercial relations”.
Erdogan voiced his confidence that the provisions of the agreement signed during the visit of Abu Dhabi Crown are a step towards a “new era” between Turkey and the UAE and maintaining it thereafter.
He said that Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan will visit the UAE in preparation for his next UAE visit.
The coming period is expected to test the Turkish president’s intent to change course in dealing with regional issues. His visit to Egypt, if it takes place, will force him to provide clear answers regarding his support for the Muslim Brotherhood and whether he is willing to tell the Islamist organisation’s leaders, who turned the city of Istanbul into a headquarters for their regional activities, to leave and dismantle the financial and media networks they operate out of Turkey
Analysts see his visit to Israel as providing him with another reality check. Despite inflated rhetoric in defence of the Palestinians, Erdogan has maintained strong security and intelligence cooperation with Israel. Business between Israeli and Turkish companies has also gone on unhindered.
The analysts add that Israel does not attach much importance to his statements about Jerusalem or Gaza, but follows closely the pace of his cooperation with Hamas and wants Ankara to close all Hamas offices on Turkish soil.
For many years, Turkish-Israeli relations have been based on separating economic bonds from politics. Official data issued by the Statistics Institute and the Turkish Central Bank confirm that the economic relations and the volume of trade between Turkey and Israel have not been interrupted, but on the contrary have increased, as did the volume of direct investments between the two countries. In 2020, Turkey exported $4.7 billion to Israel. This made Israel its ninth largest export destinationy. In the first four months of 2021, Turkey’s exports to Israel rose to $1.85 billion, an increase of 35 percent compared to the same period last year.

Omicron Brings COVID-19 Vaccine Inequity 'Home to Roost'
Associated Press/Tuesday, 30 November, 2021
The emergence of the new omicron variant and the world's desperate and likely futile attempts to keep it at bay are reminders of what scientists have warned for months: The coronavirus will thrive as long as vast parts of the world lack vaccines. The hoarding of limited COVID-19 shots by rich countries — creating virtual vaccine deserts in many poorer ones — doesn't just mean risk for the parts of the world seeing shortages; it threatens the entire globe.
That's because the more the disease spreads among unvaccinated populations, the more possibilities it has to mutate and potentially become more dangerous, prolonging the pandemic for everyone.
"The virus is a ruthless opportunist, and the inequity that has characterized the global response has now come home to roost," said Dr. Richard Hatchett, CEO of CEPI, one of the groups behind the U.N.-backed COVAX shot-sharing initiative.
Perhaps nowhere is the inequality more evident than in Africa, where under 7% of the population is vaccinated. South African scientists alerted the World Health Organization to the new omicron variant last week, though it may never be clear where it first originated. Researchers are now rushing to determine whether it is more infectious or able to evade current vaccines.
COVAX was supposed to avoid such inequality — but instead the initiative is woefully short of shots and has already abandoned its initial goal of 2 billion doses. Even to reach its scaled-back target of distributing 1.4 billion doses by the end of 2021, it must ship more than 25 million doses every day. Instead, it has averaged just over 4 million a day since the beginning of October, with some days dipping below 1 million, according to an Associated Press analysis of the shipments. Shipments in recent days have ramped up, but nowhere near the amount needed.
Meanwhile, richer nations often have a glut of shots, and many are now offering boosters — something the WHO has discouraged because every booster is essentially a dose that is not going to someone who's never even gotten their first shot. Despite the U.N. health agency's appeal to countries to declare a moratorium on booster shots until the end of the year, more than 60 countries are now administering them. "What it highlights are the continuing and fundamental risks to everyone associated with not seriously addressing the inequalities still at play globally in the fight against disease and poor health," said Dr. Osman Dar, director of the One Health Project at the Chatham House think tank.
Anna Marriott, health policy manager for Oxfam, said COVAX was limited from the outset after being pushed to the back of the vaccine queue by rich countries.
"The COVAX team may be delivering as fast as they can, but they can't deliver vaccines they haven't got," Marriott said.
Just 13% of vaccines COVAX contracted for and 12% of promised donations have actually been delivered, according to calculations by the International Monetary Fund from mid-November. About a third of the vaccines dispensed by COVAX have been donations, according to the vaccine alliance known as Gavi, and the initiative is now partly a clearinghouse for those donated doses, the very situation it was set up to avoid. Last week, COVAX sent out a news release praising a European Union pledge to ship 100 million vaccines to Africa by the end of the year — but only 1/20 of that amount was actually on planes.
Asked about the logistical challenges of distributing the other 94 million doses in only six weeks, Aurelia Nguyen, managing director of COVAX maintained that arrangements "are in place to move a vast number of doses between now and the end of the year."In a statement, she said the issue was ensuring that "conditions are right on the ground for doses to be administered."
In minutes released ahead of an executive meeting this week, Gavi fretted that the perception that rich countries are dumping older or lesser vaccines on poor countries could undermine the whole project. On Monday, in a joint statement with WHO and the African Union among others, it admonished that "the majority of the donations to date have been ad hoc, provided with little notice and short shelf lives." Fury over dose dumping is already very real. In Malawi and South Sudan, tens of thousands of out-of-date doses were destroyed.
But it's not just getting the vaccines into poorer countries that's a problem, according to some experts. COVAX is "falling short on getting vaccines from the (airport) tarmac into people's arms," said Dr. Angela Wakhweya, senior director for health equity and rights at CARE. Authorities in Congo, for instance, returned their entire COVAX shipment this summer when they realized they would not be able to administer doses before they expired. In a "risk management" report on COVAX, Gavi warned that "poor absorption" of vaccines by developing countries could lead to "wastage" of some doses. One problem is logistics — just getting the doses in the right country at the right time. But just as important is the ability of often underfunded national health systems to distribute the shots where they're most needed, along with syringes and other necessary gear. A third issue is persuading sometimes hesitant people to get the vaccines. World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, however, has disputed distribution is a problem, saying the only obstacle to immunization in poor countries is supply.
Most COVAX doses distributed so far have been AstraZeneca's vaccine, a shot that has yet to be authorized in the U.S. and whose botched rollout in Europe helped fuel anti-vaccine sentiment when the vaccine was linked to rare blood clots. The vaccines mostly used in the U.S. and much of Europe — made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna — have only been available in tiny amounts via COVAX.
The U.S., which blocked vaccine sales overseas and exports of key ingredients for months, has donated 275 million doses in all, more than any other country but still less than a third of what the Biden administration pledged. The European Union, which has in general allowed vaccines manufactured in the bloc to be sold anywhere in the world, has actually delivered about a third of its 400 million promised doses.
Efforts to ramp up global production beyond a select group of manufacturers have stalled, which many activists and scientists blame on pharmaceutical companies' opposition to waive intellectual property rights for the highly lucrative vaccines.COVAX's failure to deliver anywhere close to enough vaccines has led some to wonder if it's worth the effort to fight for the shots, given that the pandemic has so far not devastated Africa as many had initially feared — and has often been the worst in richer nations. That's a strategy few public health officials would endorse.
"I think what Africa could do to really shame the world is to stop asking for vaccines," said Christian Happi, a Nigerian virologist who sat on the scientific advisory board of CEPI. "The vaccines have not arrived, and anyways it may turn out that we don't need them as much as the West."

The Latest The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 30-December 01/2021
Biden’s Democracy Summit Is a South Asian Diplomatic Flub

Mihir Sharma/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 30/2021
Supposedly, US President Joe Biden’s “Summit for Democracy” — which begins Dec. 9 — would show America was back as leader of the free world. Unfortunately, the Biden administration isn’t big on either thoughtfulness before the fact, or justification after. And in many parts of the world, including here in South Asia, the summit is likely to do more harm than good. India, the world’s largest democracy – albeit one not quite as robust these days as once it was – will naturally be there. But Sri Lanka, which has comparable democratic credentials, is not.
Most puzzling, perhaps, is the choice to exclude Bangladesh while inviting Pakistan. Neither is a particularly shining example of democracy at the moment. Bangladesh’s last election took place after the principal opposition leader had been jailed for corruption, and was described as “improbably lopsided” by the State Department. Pakistan’s last election, meanwhile, took place after its principal opposition leader had first been disqualified and then, for good measure, sentenced to jail. The election itself was, the State Department noted, marred by “pre-election interference by military and intelligence agencies that created an uneven electoral playing field.”
So why has one flawed democracy been invited, and the other not? If anything, Bangladesh scores better on various objective indicators of institutional strength than Pakistan. It scores 39 out of 100 from Freedom House, while Pakistan gets 37. Bangladesh is ranked 76th in the world by the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index, just marginally missing out on “flawed democracy” status. Pakistan is much further down the list, at 105th, just below Turkey, a nominal US ally that has not been invited.
So how should one read this sort of blunder? Perhaps it’s just carelessness, one more post-Afghanistan reminder that Biden’s promises to restore competence to US foreign policy have been unfulfilled.
On the other hand, perhaps it’s deliberate. The US might have determined it still “needs” Pakistan to help manage Afghanistan — and thus cannot officially admit that Prime Minister Imran Khan was effectively selected by the country’s all-powerful military establishment, and not simply elected. Such cynicism somewhat undermines the notion that the summit is about “renewing shared purpose.” Certainly, it will give countries like India the sense that it doesn’t matter whether our own democratic credentials erode over time — the US will still call us a democracy, because they need us.
So do you prefer to think the Democracy Summit is about incompetence, or about cynicism? Actually, you may not have to choose. Because even if the decision to leave out Bangladesh and Sri Lanka while inviting India and Pakistan was pure realpolitik, it’s still a big error.
After all, any pragmatic argument for a democracy summit centers on demonstrating to wavering democracies the benefits of keeping Beijing at arm’s length; and, in the process, reminding China’s leaders that their political system is still not the one to which most countries aspire.
So countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka — flawed democracies that are being wooed by the People’s Republic with money and flattery — are precisely the countries you want in the room. These are two crucial swing nations in the geopolitical competition to determine the course of this century, and the Biden administration has decided to tell them they don’t matter.
The fact is that once you turn a conference invitation into a certificate, then it is the certificate that matters and not the conference. A certificate from the US president plays into national self-image and domestic politics in complicated ways. The Pakistani regime’s position vis-à-vis its embattled liberal dissidents has been strengthened; and Bangladeshi politicians have been given a reason to distrust the US Its foreign minister first said that the conference was for countries “with weak democracies,” and later added that the US “likes to put pressure on countries “in the name of democracy, good governance or terrorism.” He might as well have added that when the Chinese leadership insults a country, it is at least straightforward about it.
Derek Grossman of Rand Corp. has said the administration “basically blew up [its] Indo-Pacific strategy overnight with the Summit for Democracy.” He’s not wrong. The US strategy for the region, like everybody else’s, makes the case for common democratic principles underpinning alliances to constrain illiberal actors like Beijing. Now, however, when American diplomats — or their European and Indian counterparts — go to Colombo and Dhaka and talk about “shared values,” their hosts can shut them down in seconds. Why should we listen to you blather about values, they will ask. The American president doesn’t even think we’re a democracy.

The Temporary Is Permanent… Disputes that Repel Resolutions
Sam Menassa/Asharq Al-Awsat/November, 30/2021
What outcomes are expected from the seventh round of the negotiations in Vienna aimed at reinstating the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as the nuclear degree, between Iran and the P5+1?
It is difficult to describe the atmosphere around the talks as encouraging, whether from the US or Iranian side, while most of the others taking part in the negotiations are sending positive messages. It would not be surprising if this round was followed by an eighth, ninth, tenth or maybe more, and for diplomacy to take its course and expand based on the positions adopted and the actions taken on the ground.
To start with, it could be easy to generally understand the United States' foreign directions, in contrast to those of Iran, which are more obscure and complicated. Washington's insistence and determination to reach an agreement with Iran that averts the spread of the nuclear contagion to other countries in the region, which will not hesitate to succeed Iran, are obvious. This is the priority of the US administration, any US administration.
At the same time, the United States is, at this stage, more preoccupied with its domestic issues, which have become more pressing, taking more of the administration's attention and time than they had before. Joe Biden's administration is giving particular attention to maintaining and renewing the country's infrastructure, allocating over one trillion dollars to this end, which is of critical importance domestically. Moreover, the administration has its eye on the midterm elections that will be held less than a year from now, while most party members are cautious regarding Iran and its policies, both its nuclear activity and its actions in the region. The third important factor shaping Washington's policy on this issue is that the president himself, as it seems, is not enthusiastic about an unconditional return to the agreement framed in accordance with Iran's agenda. His position differs from that of most of his team, which is enthusiastic about any framework that would ensure the agreement's resumption.
In this context, a dilemma perhaps worries President Biden and Washington's allies, especially those in the region, is their uncertainty that the agreement will prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear power. Giving an unequivocal answer to this question is impossible despite the capacities and efficiency of Western intelligence agencies.
That is on the US side, but regarding Tehran, understanding where it stands, as we mentioned before, is more complex. There are many hard-liners opposed to the agreement. Their statements could be part of the preparations for the negotiations, or they could actually reflect their positions and convictions. In addition, there are doubts about Iran's commitment to complying with the agreements it signs. Washington, as well as some of its allies in the West and in the region, who have to deal with Iranian negative non-nuclear behavior on a daily basis, believe that ideology plays a significant role in Tehran's decision-making and it could, without preventing the agreement from being concluded, lead to its circumvention, with some of its clauses breached and its spirit deviated from.
That shapes our reading of the expected impact on the region, whether the agreement is returned to or not, or if the middle ground solution making the rounds is reached. Most Iranian- US relations experts believe that some kind of settlement between Tehran and Washington will be reached, with or without the agreement. They base this projection on their conviction that half of the United States' concerns regard domestic matters, and a large part of the second half focuses on Russia, China and how to manage its relationship with them. That means there is little concern, very little, for the region, its affairs and tribulations. The US is only concerned with one thing, avoiding problems, containing conflicts, and distancing itself from getting involved in wars.
What precedes points to two things: the first is a reiteration of what we keep repeating; there is no specific strategy beyond preventing upheaval, limiting it or containing it, whatever the cost. If that is true, then a vacuum is the alternative, and this is what the region has been suffering from for more than a decade. We don't have to also reiterate what we have said about Moscow's weakness and inability to fill the void. That was apparent after its intervention in Syria and its disappointing outcomes. Meanwhile, it seems that China is currently neither equipped nor willing to put its energy into the region at this stage.
What we can conclude is that the current "status quo," which is built on an imbalance caused by the United States' absence and the force Iran has used in all directions, whether directly or through its allies and vassals, will persist.
Some reply saying that this scenario ignores Israel's influence on Washington's policy in the region, but everyone can see that Washington's habitual stance of unequivocally supporting Israel is not what it had been in the past.
This shift has pushed Tel Aviv to adopt a policy of direct retaliation in the event that it is attacked and to expand and enhance its relations in the region, especially its joint action with the neighboring countries that have normalized ties and those that are on track to normalize ties. As for the other Arab countries, either their force is scattered, or they are unable to use their strength as they should. Regarding Israel, the region's countries, especially those that have normalized ties with it, are fully aware of the direction US policy is taking and are reducing their reliance on the US to the greatest extent possible. Israel and Morocco's defense memorandum of understanding signed in Rabat last week is only the first of the many that the region will witness.
As for Turkey, which has scattered its forces in several regions and intervened in several conflicts, its economic and financial problems have become increasingly worrying to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his team, which could push them to reconsider their policies and devote more attention to domestic affairs.
In the end, the region is unlikely to see its problems end whether a nuclear agreement between Washington and Tehran is reached or not. If only, as some hoping that the agreement is reinstated claim, that would open the eyes of the Western states keen on reaching it to Iran's destabilizing actions in the region and push the West in general, especially Western European states, to stop acting like aid organizations and associations.

Germany's Coalition Agreement: A "Lowest Common Denominator" Deal

Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 30/2021
It remains to be seen how long the new government — to be formed by a fractious three-way coalition consisting of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) — will last.
Olaf Scholz has said that the new government will not seek "the lowest common denominator" but its coalition agreement appears to be just that. Far from ending the Merkel era, the next government may end up being a continuation of it.
"When it comes to money, the coalition agreement lacks specifics. It is completely unknown how the coalition will finance all of its plans." — Michael Hüther, Director, German Economic Institute.
"In future, the task of the police is no longer to prosecute and prevent criminal offenses, but to give politically correct preference to certain groups of offenders.... Reality is a foreign word. Inflation? Crisis on the Polish border? Energy shortages? Unemployment? Budget deficits? Not an issue. The main thing is that grazing animals and humans make room for the wolf." — Roland Tichy, German commentator.
"In reality, none of them really agrees on anything very much except that they think it is about time they had a go at running a ministry or two." — Michael Lynn, The Spectator.
"If this all sounds lacking in ambition, that's because it is.... Germans voted as if they want a government that would sit out major arguments about the country's economic or strategic direction." — Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal.
"Perhaps the biggest worry about the new coalition is that it may spend too much of its time arguing." — The Economist.
Olaf Scholz, who narrowly won Germany's general elections in September, has said that his new government will not seek "the lowest common denominator," but its coalition agreement appears to be just that. Far from ending the Merkel era, the next government may end up being a continuation of it. Pictured: Party leaders of the coalition (from L to R) Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats, Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats, and Annalene Baerbock and Robert Habeck of the Greens, on November 24, 2021 in Berlin.
The three parties planning to form a new federal government in Germany have presented a coalition agreement that is to serve as a pre-agreed policy roadmap for the next four years.
The platform for the new government indicates there will be little substantive change from the policies pursued by outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The lack of bold fresh ideas is the direct consequence of an inconclusive election in September and that the parties seeking to form a new government are ideological rivals that do not agree on almost anything.
Germany's current finance minister, Olaf Scholz, who narrowly won the general elections on September 26, is expected to be inaugurated as chancellor in the first week of December.
It remains to be seen how long the new government — to be formed by a fractious three-way coalition consisting of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentalist Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) — will last.
The 178-page coalition agreement, presented in Berlin on November 24, was finalized after two months of haggling (negotiators reportedly spent "hours" debating single sentences). It contains eight main sections that focus on a panoply of domestic and foreign policy issues to be pursued over the next four years.
The document indicates that the next federal government will prioritize domestic issues, such as modernization, digitalization, and the environment. The agreement, which promises a "decade of future investments," is vague on how much such plans will cost. It does not envision higher federal borrowing or tax increases, so it remains unclear how such investments will be financed.
The agreement calls for phasing out coal-fired power plants by 2030, eight years earlier than previously planned, becoming carbon neutral within a generation, and installing solar panels on "all suitable roof surfaces." It pledges to increase the minimum wage, build 400,000 new homes each year, and legalize cannabis.
In a section on the environment and nature protection, the document states: "We are committed to consistent insect protection.... Our goal is to organize the coexistence of grazing animals, humans and wolves...."
On immigration, the new government will make it easier for refugees to bring family members to Germany. Asylum seekers will be able to apply for jobs. Those seeking German citizenship will no longer be required to renounce other citizenships.
The document is replete with so-called progressive rhetoric including calls for "introducing a holistic diversity strategy with specific funding measures, targets and measures for cultural change."
In foreign policy, the document promises a "feminist" foreign policy to ensure more inclusive perspectives, but, with few exceptions, it also calls for a continuation of the policies pursued by Merkel.
The agreement calls for transforming the European Union into "a federal European state." It states that the EU's foreign policy chief should be given real power as a bona fide EU foreign minister to represent the bloc on the world stage. The document does not say how such a plan, which entails abolishing sovereign nation states, will be implemented. Such reforms to the EU would require unanimous support from the EU's other 26 member states. This is unlikely to happen.
The document states that NATO and the transatlantic alliance will remain the foundation of German security but fails to commit to NATO's defense-spending target of 2% of GDP. The coalition agreed that Germany will remain part of NATO's nuclear sharing agreement. Germany hosts U.S. nuclear weapons that German fighter jets are to carry for nuclear missions for NATO.
The SPD and Greens have long called for the removal of U.S. nuclear weapons from German soil. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently said that the weapons might be moved further east if Germany dropped out of the nuclear sharing deal — a move that would anger Russia. The coalition agreement states: "As long as nuclear weapons play a role in NATO's strategic concept, Germany has an interest in participating in strategic discussions and planning processes."
On the Middle East, the document states that while Israel's security will be a priority (Staatsräson), the coalition government will emphasize the so-called two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The SPD and Greens are frequent critics of Israel, while the FDP has been a staunch defender of the Jewish state.
The agreement also states that Germany will increase its contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for so-called Palestinian refugees. Educational textbooks produced by UNRWA have been found to be openly anti-Semitic and encourage violence, jihad and martyrdom.
The agreement states that the coalition will be committed to the Iran nuclear deal and calls for Tehran's full compliance with its obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
The new government will seek "substantive and stable" relations with Russia and "constructive dialogue" with Moscow on climate and environmental issues. It calls for Russia to end its "destabilization efforts" in Belarus and Ukraine. At the same time, the new government wants to eliminate visa requirements for Russians who wish to travel to Germany. The Greens have been outspoken opponents of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline while the Social Democrats support the pipeline. It remains unclear how the coalition partners will reconcile this rift.
The document calls for a collective EU China policy that is coordinated with the United States. It also bizarrely states that "within the framework of a One-China Policy" it would support Taiwan's membership in international organizations.
Olaf Scholz has said that the new government will not seek "the lowest common denominator" but its coalition agreement appears to be just that. Far from ending the Merkel era, the next government may end up being a continuation of it.
In terms of the distribution of ministerial posts, the SPD will receive seven, including the chancellery and the interior and defense ministries. The Greens will appoint the next vice-chancellor and get five ministries, including the foreign ministry. The FDP will receive four ministerial posts, including the powerful finance and justice ministries.
SPD leader Olaf Scholz, a 63-year-old career politician, is set to become Germany's next chancellor. Trained as a lawyer, he served as the mayor of Hamburg for six years before being appointed federal finance minister and vice chancellor in 2018 as part of Merkel's fourth government. During the election campaign, the SPD portrayed Scholz as a level-headed statesman who would be Merkel's natural successor.
Greens leader Annalena Baerbock is set to become Germany's first female foreign minister. She has repeatedly urged a harder line on China, but it remains unclear how far she can go considering Germany's economic overreliance on that country. China is Germany's main trading partner, according to Destatis, Germany's official statistics agency. Baerbock surely will face tremendous pressure from German industry to maintain the status quo on China.
FDP leader Christian Lindner, a hawk on fiscal policy issues (he places great importance on keeping government spending under control), will become finance minister, Germany's most powerful office. He has no background in business or finance and has never run a government ministry. Lindner, who is opposed to tax increases, wants to improve conditions for private investment in Germany. He has been a critic of Merkel's open door migration policy, and favors limited government and less regulations, positions that are the polar opposite of his coalition partners.
Evaluating the Coalition Agreement
Analysts and commentators generally agree that Germany's next government will face tremendous challenges in working together to turn its plans into reality. Many have asked how the coalition will pay for its policy program.
The head of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher, estimated that the coalition plans will cost at least 500 billion euros. In an interview with Rheinische Post, he said:
"The coalition agreement not only does not resolve the contradiction of tax cuts, compliance with the debt brake [Schuldenbremse, a constitutionally enshrined debt limit] and higher government spending but intensifies it. The financing of the social systems, especially the statutory pension, whose costs will explode in the future and require early countermeasures, also remains unsolved."
The director of the German Economic Institute (IW), Michael Hüther, agreed:
"When it comes to money, the coalition agreement lacks specifics. It is completely unknown how the coalition will finance all of its plans."
Writing for Politico, Karl Mathiesen and Aitor Hernández-Morales noted that the incoming coalition's plans to decarbonize Germany come with a catch:
"The three parties aiming to form the next German government just announced one of the most ambitious transitions away from fossil fuels in the world.
"But there's a dirty reality to pledges of 'ideally' ending coal use by 2030, scrapping combustion engine cars by 2035 and aligning all government policies with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees — Germany will continue to rely on natural gas and nuclear power for many years....
"First is the problem of how to finance the transformation of Europe's largest economy....
"Then there's the problem of how to get rid of coal — which generated 27 percent of Germany's electricity in the first half of this year — in just eight years. That's much faster than the previous target of 2038, which already caused howls of outrage in Germany's declining coal regions....
"An even bigger issue is how to power Germany during the transition.
"The coalition proposes a 'massive' expansion of clean energy by raising the current goal of having renewables account for 65 percent of electricity generation by 2030 to 80 percent by the end of the decade....
"But clean energy won't be enough to cover demand by 2030, and that means the coal phaseout will oblige Germans to embrace two things they love to hate: Russian gas and French nuclear energy."
Commentator Roland Tichy criticized some of the social aspects of the coalition agreement:
"This coalition wants to change Germany. Marginal groups who are at home with the Greens are favored, refugees are given the right to vote after three years, large areas of nature are sacrificed to wind turbines. .... The coalition agreement reads like the paper of a Greens party congress. There is constant talk of transformation, hardly an area of ​​life in Germany that should not be changed, gendered and socially rebuilt from above.
"In chapters there is talk of 'queer ways of life' that should be promoted, protected and subsidized; of Muslims whose persecution has ended and of immigrants who receive citizenship after three years who should also be constantly promoted. Families of those who have lived here for a long time do not matter. It is a coalition agreement for 'rainbow families,' not for those who used to be called normal people: they will be transformed away....
"What is said about dwindling internal security and the increase in extreme violence also reads like a mockery. Gang rape and threats from knife attacks are offset against bicycle theft, so that one is led to believe: 'Germany is one of the safest countries in the world. We want to make it even safer.' But the police are not being strengthened for this.
"In future, the task of the police is no longer to prosecute and prevent criminal offenses, but to give politically correct preference to certain groups of offenders, who should be the subject of training courses....
"Reality is a foreign word. Inflation? Crisis on the Polish border? Energy shortages? Unemployment? Budget deficits? Not an issue. The main thing is that grazing animals and humans make room for the wolf."
Politico's Matthew Karnitschnig described the coalition agreement as an "aspirational document" which serves as a "marketing prospectus" that party leaders can use to sell the deal to their bases. He added:
"One of the most striking features of the coalition's sales pitch is how much space it devotes to progressive causes. The parties say they want to lower the voting age to 16, legalize cannabis and make it easier for foreigners not just to become German, but to have dual citizenship. Those are all red-meat issues for conservatives, especially the citizenship plan, suggesting that Germany could soon see a return to the divisive migration debates triggered by the refugee crisis in 2015.
"If that's not enough controversy, the parties have also resolved to tackle the minefield of gender identity. The pact's chapter on 'queer life' is nearly three times as long as the section on Jews, a fact that prompted raised eyebrows in some quarters given the recent surge in anti-Semitic attacks in Germany....
"Given the central role of the Greens in the proposed coalition, it's not surprising that climate policy is a dominant theme. What is surprising, however, is how unrealistic some of the targets are.... Keep in mind that Germany's renewable push has already left the country with some of Europe's highest electricity prices. With inflation already rising and working people complaining about their heating bills, accelerating the coal pullout could soon prove politically untenable....
"The Bundesrat is Germany's federal upper chamber, where the 16 states have a big say on important legislation. Without it, the coalition's agenda is nothing more than a pipe dream. Trouble is, the three parties don't have anything close to a majority there, meaning that they will need buy-in from the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) on all of their big projects....
"If there's one thing that Merkel's tenure should have taught her successor, it's that in Germany's modern politics, nothing goes according to plan. None of the issues that dominated Merkel's time in office, whether the banking crisis of 2008, the European debt crisis, refugees or the pandemic, were mentioned in any of the carefully prepared coalition agreements. There's little reason to believe Scholz will have any more luck.
"And as with Merkel, he will be judged not according to how many chapters of the coalition agreement he managed to pass, but on his leadership when the Scheiße hits the fan."
Writing for the UK-based The Spectator, Michael Lynn noted:
"The Social Democrat leader Olaf Scholz... has put together an unlikely grouping of the Social Democrats, a lumbering left-of-center, trade union party with a rising Corbynista wing, the Greens, and the pro-business, pro-market Free Democrats.
"In reality, none of them really agrees on anything very much except that they think it is about time they had a go at running a ministry or two. The platform for government is likely to be a bland mix of infrastructure spending, phasing out coal power, and slightly easing the debt brake that limits the ability of any German government to borrow money. Here's the problem, however: the new government is bad news for Germany.
"The dynamics of the European bloc are in a rare state of flux. Under Mario Draghi, Italy has embarked for the first time in a generation on serious reforms. It has also skillfully negotiated the lion's share of the European Union's Coronavirus Rescue Fund, allowing it to turbo-charge its economy with lots of money borrowed from other people. The result? Italy is forecast by the IMF to expand by 5.8 per cent this year.
"Across the border, France's president Macron gets plenty of flak, not least in the UK, and his record as a reformer has been tepid, to put it mildly. And yet he has managed to inject some entrepreneurial vigor into the French economy and spent lavishly enough to keep demand growing. The IMF forecasts it will grow by more than six per cent this year.
"But Germany? With a declining auto industry, which accounts for ten per cent of total GDP, few digital start-ups, and a reliance on exports to China, it is only forecast to grow by 3.1 per cent as it struggles to recover from the pandemic. With a fresh lockdown looming, it may not even reach that.
"We are used to the cliche that Germany is the euro-zone's strongman, with the mightiest economy, easily outpacing the crisis-prone South. And yet that view is increasingly out-of-date. Germany is in danger of turning into the weakest major economy in the bloc; as that happens, power will inevitably shift from Berlin to Paris and Rome.
"Sooner or later, Germans will vote for a Chancellor who will reform the economy, and get the economy moving again. But it won't be Scholz, and it won't be the fractious coalition he unveils today. It will condemn the country to the slow lane."
Writing for Eurointelligence, Wolfgang Münchau, a veteran analyst of European affairs, expressed skepticism about the coalition:
"I find it hard to square what I know to be the ambitions of the traffic lighters [Greens and FDP] with what I know about Scholz. Something will have to give here. Maybe Scholz will go through a transformation. But I really struggle to see him standing up to Vladimir Putin when he threatens to cut off Germany's gas supply. Will he be telling the Russian leader that the future of Nord Stream 2 now rests squarely with independent regulators, the European Commission, and possibly the Court of Justice of the EU? Will he tell President Xi Jinping that Germany's solidarity is with the government of Lithuania and MEPs subject to Chinese sanctions, rather than German exporters? Angela Merkel did not."
The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal wrote:
"Germans declined to endorse any one politician, party or platform in their election in September—and that's the government they're getting in the coalition agreement unveiled Wednesday. Europe's largest economy will be led by a consortium of Social Democrats, Greens and free-market Free Democrats, and don't ask where they're heading.
"The new chancellor to replace Angela Merkel will be Olaf Scholz, leader of the center-left Social Democratic party (SPD) and finance minister in Ms. Merkel's administration. His relative success in the September poll, reviving a party many had written off after a poor showing in 2017, was built on a perception he'd deliver a little change after the Merkel era but not too much. The coalition agreement he's crafted confirms that perception.
"On the policy merits, the most important elements of the coalition deal concern climate. The parties have agreed to phase out coal-fired power by 2030 and to encourage the use of electric vehicles. This was the price Mr. Scholz had to pay to keep the Greens on board.
"This is popular with German voters, despite previous rounds of climate subsidies, taxes and regulations that are driving German energy prices to the highest in Europe. Will these policies remain popular if prices keep rising? At least the new government means voters will understand the Greens are responsible if and when that political bill comes due....
"The personnel in the new government are likely to matter more than the policy program. FDP leader Christian Lindner will take charge of the Finance Ministry, allowing him to exercise restraint on the budget and represent Germany at European Union meetings as leaders debate greater fiscal interventions.
"Green co-leader Annalena Baerbock will become Foreign Minister, from which vantage she can reinforce her party's displeasure with human-rights abuses in Russia and China. Policies might not change much, including on Russia's contentious Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but a sterner tone would be a modest improvement over Ms. Merkel.
"If this all sounds lacking in ambition, that's because it is.... Germans voted as if they want a government that would sit out major arguments about the country's economic or strategic direction. Voters' wish has become Mr. Scholz's coalition."
The UK-based Financial Times noted:
"The advantage of Germany's long-winded coalition talks is that much of the difficult bargaining has now been done. But it remains to be seen how much will survive the challenges of office, not least an alarming fourth wave of Covid-19 infections and deaths that is sweeping across the country.
"There are real incompatibilities between the three parties' electorates, in particular the FDP and the other two.... Green and liberal foreign policy thinking is visible in a program whose tone on Russia, China, and the rule of law is sharper than what the rest of Europe had learnt to expect from Berlin under Merkel. But in practice they will face resistance from the SPD, which was after all part of the outgoing government. Inevitably some voters will feel betrayed."
The London-based magazine, The Economist, concluded:
"Perhaps the biggest worry about the new coalition is that it may spend too much of its time arguing. On many issues, Mr. Scholz can expect his liberal partners to pull in one direction, and his Green partners in another. The laboriously hashed-out plan provides a baseline of agreement, but there will always be things it failed to foresee, or simply ducked. Covid-19 is again raging in Germany and Vladimir Putin is a menace. But the methodical and disciplined way the three parties have worked through their differences gives reason to hope that they will be able to go on doing so. Viel Glück! [Good luck!]"
*Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.
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Turkey is Collateral Damage in Erdoğan’s Hostage Diplomacy

Eric S. Edelman and Aykan Erdemir/The Dispatch-FDD/November 30/2021
Mordy and Natalie Oknin, an Israeli couple visiting Istanbul, filmed a video last week to dispel fears among Israelis too scared to visit Turkey. Natalie said, “There is nothing to fear. It is fun in Turkey, safe in Turkey, you can speak Hebrew openly. They love us Israelis.” Her husband added, “Come, everything is okay.” Shortly after, however, the Oknins ended up in solitary confinement for six days on spurious charges of espionage and were able to return home only following backchannel talks between Ankara and Jerusalem. The swift resolution of the latest episode of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s hostage diplomacy should not gloss over the harm it does to the detained victims and its collateral damage to Turkey.
What got the Oknins into trouble with Turkish authorities was their visit to one of Istanbul’s tourist attractions, the Camlica telecommunications tower. Erdoğan inaugurated the building in May amid great fanfare, bragging that it symbolizes “the country’s vision in the modern era.” As the Israeli couple enjoyed the tower’s restaurant and observation deck, they also took photos of another nearby tourist attraction, Erdoğan’s Istanbul residence. Fast forward four days: Turkey’s interior minister implicated the Oknins by stating his expectation that the Oknins would be charged with “political and military espionage” for taking the photos.
Just as with North Carolina pastor Andrew Brunson, who spent two years in Turkish prisons on similar bogus charges while Erdoğan used him as a pawn to extract concessions from Washington, Turkey’s pro-government media pronounced the Oknins guilty. Yeni Akit, a newspaper known for its incendiary antisemitic coverage, not only branded the couple as “Israeli spies,” but also targeted Turkish journalists who highlighted the ludicrous nature of the accusations. In 2018, the same daily smeared Brunson as “Spy Brunson” and the “USA’s terrorist priest.”
Erdogan’s hostage diplomacy became a mainstay of his foreign policy after a failed July 2016 coup attempt. In a report we wrote for Foundation for Defense of Democracies in 2018, we documented the victimization of more than 50 Western nationals or permanent residents by dubious political charges and lengthy pretrial detention. These include three U.S. foreign service nationals, the term for local staff the State Department employs abroad.
While Americans, Europeans, and Israelis have become ensnared in Turkey’s Kafkaesque courts, Ankara does not inflict such abuse on visitors from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Chinese nationals have enjoyed similar immunity unless they happened to be exiled Uyghur dissidents criticizing Beijing’s genocidal campaign in Xinjiang. This underscores that the fate of Brunson, and other Western nationals who also became scapegoats, is no accident.
Erdogan’s blatant attempts to use hostages as bargaining chips prompted one of us (Edelman) to urge the Trump administration, in a Washington Post op-ed, not to swap Brunson for Reza Zarrab, the confessed ringleader of a multibillion dollar scheme to evade U.S. sanctions on Iran, which Erdoğan personally facilitated, per Zarrab’s testimony in federal court. Trump did not trade Zarrab to free Brunson, yet Erdoğan succeeded in leveraging Brunson to free a Hamas suspect from Israeli custody, a favor Trump reportedly sought from the then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Besides the lives shattered by Erdoğan’s kangaroo courts, Turkey and its citizens are the collateral victims of Erdoğan’s hostage diplomacy. The Turkish lira lost another 5 percent against the dollar during the six-day detention of the Oknins, exacerbating a meltdown in Turkey’s national currency that has seen it lose 40 percent of its value since January, making it the worst-performing major emerging market currency this year. This tumble, along with double-digit inflation, are caused by Erdoğan’s erratic decisions that scare away not only individuals but also foreign capital from what was once seen as an attractive emerging market.
Erdogan’s hostage diplomacy also hits Turkey’s tourism sector, an important source of foreign currency for a country that suffers from a chronic current account deficit. The Jerusalem Post’s Herb Keinon warned Israelis recently “Don’t go to Turkey,” and urged Israel to “embark on a campaign in other countries – the US, the UK, Germany – warning of what awaits tourists to Turkey if they take a selfie in front of a building about whose sensitivity they are unaware.” Turkey’s tourism workers must have watched the Oknin drama with dread, wondering how many would lose their jobs to Erdoğan’s latest episode of hostage diplomacy.
This time around, Israel’s backchannel diplomacy at the highest levels moved Erdoğan to intervene to release the Oknins ahead of their December court date, for which Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Foreign Minister Yair Lapid thanked “the President of Turkey and his government for their cooperation” in a statement. Israeli President Isaac Herzog phoned Erdoğan to convey his appreciation “for his personal involvement and contribution.” Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Erdoğan sought a public expression of gratitude from the Israeli leaders to help secure the release of the Oknins. This is yet another reminder of the Turkish president’s absolute control over Turkey’s legal system, for good or ill.
The Turkish president and his senior aides frequently breach the constitution to condemn suspects even before prosecutors can come up with an indictment. During the trial of Die Welt’s Turkey correspondent Deniz Yucel, Erdoğan not only smeared him as a “spy” and “terrorist,” but vowed never to release him as long as he was president. Meanwhile, his government was also busy demanding military technology from Germany in exchange for Yucel’s freedom, which prompted the German journalist Arnd Henze to warn Berlin in a Tagesschau piece not to offer such concessions.
Ultimately, the Turkish president’s calculated cruelty hurt not only the Oknins and the other political hostages who have preceded them but also Turkey’s global image, struggling economy, and more importantly its people. It is time for Erdoğan’s Turkey to end the insane and uncivilized practice of using foreign nationals as bargaining chips.
*Eric S. Edelman, a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey (2003-2005), is a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Aykan Erdemir is senior director of the Turkey program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former member of the Turkish parliament. Twitter: @aykan_erdemir

The two Arab worlds
Khairallah Khairallah/The Arab Weekly/November 30/2021
The one-upmanship of some Palestinians or other Arab actors criticising Morocco’s hosting of Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz is ludicrous if not in bad taste. It is as if Morocco has in the past prevented anyone from trying to liberate Palestine.
Morocco places its own interests above any others. Top of these are the well-being of the Moroccan people and the transformation of Morocco into a developed country with an infrastructure at a European level. Self-respecting Morocco does not need lessons from anyone.
The one-upmanship that we now see shows, above all else, ignorance about Morocco. It is ignorance at all levels about the realities of a country with a special position and with its own concerns. At the forefront of these are anchoring the country in the twenty-first century, continuing the war against poverty and backwardness and shielding the kingdom in the face of the external challenges it faces.
The false claims targeting Morocco these days confirm the existence of two Arab worlds. A world that seeks to connect itself with the future and the technological revolution and another world that remains hostage to the past. Those attempting to condemn Morocco have no memory, including the fact that Egypt, the largest Arab country, signed a peace treaty with Israel in March 1979. Jordan did not sign such a treaty until October 1994 after Yasser Arafat, the chairman of executive committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, signed the Oslo Accords.
Where is the problem in Morocco receiving an Israeli official or obtaining Israeli technology when the PLO recognises Israel and when any Palestinian official in the West Bank needs Israeli permission to leave the territories and a special permission to return there?
The important factor is that Morocco is moving ahead without paying attention to what is said by those who have made the Palestinian cause their stock in trade. These people do not know Morocco and its history. They do not know that Morocco is progressing because it refuses to trade on the Palestinian cause.
Morocco has focused on its own development. It was able to establish an advanced infrastructure linking all its cities and regions. Such infrastructure, which any visitor to Morocco can see with his own eyes, is at the core of the kingdom’s growth. Most important of all is that Morocco is a country where notions of tolerance prevail and where King Muhammad VI, who bears the title of Commander of the Faithful, is responsible for every Moroccan citizen, whether Muslim or Jew, just as he is responsible for every resident in the land of Morocco.
A year ago, before Donald Trump left the White House, the US administration recognised Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara. At the same time, Morocco restored relations with Israel, which had been frozen since the Palestinian uprising in the late 2000s. There was a bet among Morocco’s enemies that the new US administration would reconsider the decision taken by the Trump on the sovereignty of the Sahara.
The meeting held by Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken revealed that there is no American change of heart regarding the Sahara.
The disappointment suffered by the enemies of Morocco explains the renewed campaign against the kingdom by those were disturbed by the American administration’s view that there is no other game in town, as the Americans say, except for the Moroccan proposal regarding the Sahara. There is increasing American and international support for the project of expanded autonomy, within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty, which was proposed by Rabat several years ago.
The priority of priorities for Rabat remains the defence of Moroccan interests. These interests require full preparedness against any surprises, whether they emanate from Algeria or elsewhere. Algiers has been trying for a long time to ratchet up tensions with its peace-seeking neighbour. What is the problem if weapons, such as drones from Israel, can serve Moroccan interests? What matters at the end of day is that these weapons prove to be effective in the event of an attack on Morocco.
As I said previously, there are two Arab worlds at the present time. There is today a world that strives to be linked to the future, a world that considers Morocco among its most prominent symbols. There is also another world that is determined to remain a captive of the hang-ups of the past and of its defeats.
Morocco is not alone in looking ahead to the future. Those engaging in false claims should realise that the whole region is changing. Who would have imagined that Jordan and Israel would reach, under Emirati sponsorship, an agreement on solar energy in exchange for water desalination? Jordan produces solar energy, which is clean energy, provided that Israel uses it to desalinate quantities of water that the Hashemite Kingdom badly needs. Jordan is considered one of the poorest countries in the world in terms of water supplies. What is wrong with it finding a practical way to obtain water in order to end the suffering of its people? Is the death of farming in Jordan a better solution … or is it instead finding practical means of providing hope for a better future to Jordanians?