English LCCC Newsbulletin For Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 21/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news

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http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.august21.22.htm

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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Said To The Canaanite Woman: Great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her daughter was healed instantly
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Matthew 15/21-28/:"Jesus left that place and went away to the district of Tyre and Sidon. Just then a Canaanite woman from that region came out and started shouting, ‘Have mercy on me, Lord, Son of David; my daughter is tormented by a demon.’ But he did not answer her at all. And his disciples came and urged him, saying, ‘Send her away, for she keeps shouting after us.’He answered, ‘I was sent only to the lost sheep of the house of Israel.’ But she came and knelt before him, saying, ‘Lord, help me.’He answered, ‘It is not fair to take the children’s food and throw it to the dogs.’She said, ‘Yes, Lord, yet even the dogs eat the crumbs that fall from their masters’ table.’Then Jesus answered her, ‘Woman, great is your faith! Let it be done for you as you wish.’ And her daughter was healed instantly."

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on August 20-21/2022
Saddam Relative Arrested in Lebanon, Family Pleads Against Turning him over to Iraq
Rahi discusses historical relations in Bcharre, Koura with Maher Hussein
Geagea: No one abroad cares if presidential elections take place, except for Iran
Abyad announces an investigation into the file of cancer drug interruption
General Directorate of State Security issues clarification statement
Corona: 1088 ew cases and 3 deaths
Raad: Constitutional vacuum weakens national stance
Lebanese municipality rapped over decision to move army memorial in Bekaa
In pitch-dark Beirut National Museum of Beirut, visitors use cellphones to shine light on artifacts
Fouad Chehab or Elias Sarkis: What kind of presidents for Lebanon?/Mounir RABIH/L'Orient-Le Jour/August 19/2022
Aoun’s last ditch effort at making Gibran Bassil Lebanese president/Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/August 20, 2022

Titles For The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published August 20-21/2022
Authors and friends rally and read for Salman Rushdie
Eight dead as Somali forces battle Al-Shabaab at besieged hotel
Iran Deal Tantalizingly Close, but US Faces New Hurdles
Drone shot down at Russia's Black Sea fleet headquarters
Russia Accuses US of Pursuing Issues Unrelated to Iran Nuclear Deal
Israeli Mossad Hires Woman to Lead Battle against Iran
US Senators Urge Extension of Iran Energy Sanctions
Ukraine's daring attacks on Crimea are having a major 'psychological impact' on Russian forces, report says
Russian shelling, Ukrainian airstrike reflect broadening war
Russians down Ukrainian drones in Crimea as war broadens

Titles For The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published August 20-21/2022
Biden Admin’s Appeasement of Iran Mullahs Risking American Lives/Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/August 20/2022
Biden, Putin and Xi? A Good G-20 Turnout, But Not Enough/Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/August 20/2022
Iran Talks of a Changing Landscape in Which Tehran Plays an Active Role/Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Al-Awsat/August 20/2022
Türkiye and the German Dream/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 20/2022
Time for the US to show Khamenei how wrong he is/Rabbi Abraham Cooper/Rev. Johnnie Moore/Arab News/August 20/2022

The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials published August 20-21/2022
Saddam Relative Arrested in Lebanon, Family Pleads Against Turning him over to Iraq
Beirut - Youssef Diab/ Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
News broke out in Lebanon on Friday of the authorities’ arrest of Abdullah Yasser Sabawi al-Hassan, the grandson of Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan, the step-brother of late Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein. Abdullah was arrested according to an Interpol arrest warrant that was requested by Iraq. He was detained in Lebanon on July 11, revealed Saddam’s nephew, Saad Sabawi Ibrahim al-Hassan through posts on social media. He pleaded with Arab and international rights groups to intervene to determine the fate of his nephew, whom he was said was “spitefully” arrested. Lebanon’s General Security chief Abbas Ibrahim was quick to respond to the post, telling Iraqi television that he was arrested on charges of “carrying out criminal acts that left thousands dead.”“We are working according to international law and repatriation agreements between nations,” he added. He stressed that Iraq is a fraternal state to Lebanon and “we reject any act of impunity. We support the implementation of the law without any pressure. This is our duty towards the people of Iraq.”In an attempt to cast doubt over the charges against Abdullah, Saad said his nephew had left Iraq in 2003 when he was just eight years of age. He has since never returned to his country for several reasons, including being deprived of Iraqi nationality and all of his civil rights, continued Saad. Abdullah had joined Saad when he was living in Yemen, which they were forced to quit due to the worsening security situation. Abddullah chose to settle down in Lebanon, revealed Saad. Upon his arrival, he was keen on submitting a request for protection from the United Nations. His request was approved. Abdullah holds another nationality that is non-Iraqi. He lived in Lebanon for four years without coming under any harassment of pressure. He lived a calm life and did not cause any security or political tensions, continued Saad. An informed judicial source in Lebanon revealed to Asharq Al-Awsat that General Prosecutor Ghassan Oueidat had received an Iraqi notice for Abdullah’s arrest through Interpol. He ordered that Abdullah be arrested as soon as he was found. After his arrest, he was turned over to the General Security, which will determine whether it is still legal for him to remain in Lebanon or whether he should be deported. The source revealed that both Iraq and Yemen are demanding that he be turned over to them. The decision now lies in the hands of the General Security chief and the judiciary is no longer involved, it added. Abdullah’s family fears for his safety should be deported to Iraq. Saad appealed to international organizations to intervene and “free” him.

Rahi discusses historical relations in Bcharre, Koura with Maher Hussein
NNA/August 20, 2022
Maronite Patriarch Cardinal Mar Beshara Boutros Rahi received in Diman the Second Deputy Chairman of the Supreme Shiite Islamic Council Sheikh Maher Hussein. The pair discussed about the historical brotherly relations that exist between the five villages and their surroundings in the districts of Koura and Bcharre, and the deep ties that unite the Shiites in the villages with the patriarchal chair.

Geagea: No one abroad cares if presidential elections take place, except for Iran
NNA/August 20, 2022
Head of the Lebanese Forces Party Samir Geagea stressed on Saturday that no one abroad cares if presidential elections take place, except for Iran.
"No foreign country is fundamentally interested in whether the presidential elections in Lebanon will take place or not, and if they happen, they do not care who will be the president," Geagea said. "The Iranians can influence this event through Hezbollah, which has a parliamentary bloc, but for other countries, how can they influence?," he asked. "What determines the direction of the presidential elections are the local parties, and only Iran among foreign countries can influence and that exclusively through Hezbollah, no more or less, and if the party has only two deputies, the size of its influence will be equivalent to only two deputies," Geagea concluded. Geagea's words came during his meeting, at the party's headquarters in Maarrab, with a group of activists.

Abyad announces an investigation into the file of cancer drug interruption
NNA/August 20, 2022
Health Minister Firas Al-Abyad affirmed that "the ministry takes the issue of losing medicines to cancer patients with a great degree of seriousness." He added: "In the event of any violation of the law and medical, humanitarian and moral commitment, the file will be referred to the Public Prosecution to take the appropriate action."Abyad concluded by saying that what the pharmaceutical file witnessed since the beginning of the financial crisis confirms the validity of what the Ministry of Public Health seeks to achieve in terms of a strategic change in how to track and control the movement of medicines through modern automated programs and systems.

General Directorate of State Security issues clarification statement
NNA/August 20, 2022
The General Directorate of State Security - Media, Guidance and Public Relations Department denied in a statement, the news circulated by one of the media outlets that "a member of the General Directorate of State Security was arrested on suspicion of corruption, and then released after political interference."
"Therefore, the directorate clarifies that the aforementioned news is false, and that the element, Muhammad Othman, is the first qualified retiree since 6-6-2022, and no investigation has been conducted with him," ot added.Finally, the directorate called on all respected media outlets to review them before publishing any news, in the interest of media credibility, which is a noble goal for every pen holder in Lebanon.

Corona: 1088 ew cases and 3 deaths
NNA/August 20, 2022
In its daily report on COVID-19 developments, the Ministry of Public Health announced Saturday the registration of 1088 new Coronavirus infections, which raised the cumulative number of confirmed cases to-date to 1203404, adding that 3 deaths were recorded during the past 24 hours.

Raad: Constitutional vacuum weakens national stance
Naharnet/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
MP Mohammed Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, has warned that presidential vacuum would “weaken the national stance in the face of the external threats.”“Every group in Lebanon has the legal and constitutional right to have its approach towards this juncture, but according to our vision of the balances of power of the political, parliamentary and constitutional forces in this country, and according to our evaluation of the (national) interest, we call on everyone to preserve security and stability in the country through expediting the accomplishment of this juncture and leading a new president to the Baabda Palace,” Raad said. He added: “From our side, we strive to keep the country ready for confronting the hostile junctures that are threatening us from an external enemy.” “Constitutional vacuum weakens the national stance in the face of the external threats, that’s why we hope everyone will try to accomplish this juncture on time,” Raad went on to say. As for the sea border demarcation file, the Hezbollah lawmaker said his party will not accept that Israel “exploit gas looted from Palestine to sell it for high prices to Europe.”“We will confront this juncture in the coming days,” he vowed.

Lebanese municipality rapped over decision to move army memorial in Bekaa
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 20, 2022
BEIRUT: The decision of Taraya municipality, Bekaa, to move a memorial for Lebanese armed forces personnel from the town’s entrance to the side of the road has come under criticism. It was claimed that the memorial was moved to not disturb a photo associated with a political party. The monument — a military armored vehicle — was given as a token of loyalty to the townspeople who had died while defending the country. The Al-Islah’ Al-Baladi (Municipal Reform) organization in Taraya said the decision to put the monument on the side of the road was inappropriate. It said that opinions were divided during the municipal council’s meeting, with some supporting the decision and others rejecting it. Taraya is 75 km from Beirut and is a stronghold for Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement, similar to most villages and towns in Central and North Bekaa that are home to a majority of Shiites. Al-Islah’ Al-Baladi condemned the behavior of the town’s mayor, Rifaat Hamiya, who is a retired army brigadier general with more than 25 years of service.
“We hoped that he would use national principles, enforce laws, hold corrupt people accountable, and apply and commit to the national army’s regulations, instead of committing to parties’ orders and exploiting the municipal council and its members for personal gain.” While the organization stressed its support for diverse political affiliations, it said it opposed militias and parties’ decisions which proliferated hostility toward the Lebanese army. Taraya currently suffers socially and economically like other towns in Bekaa while waiting for the enforcement of a development policy.
Parties have taken over these towns’ municipalities, notably Hezbollah, which has infiltrated social lives, imposed traditions, and even controlled decisions in these places.
Ali Al-Amin, editor-in-chief of Janoubia, told Arab News: “What happened comes in the framework of Hezbollah’s well-defined path on the Lebanese level, and its (the party’s) focus on the Shiite sect after its relations were shaken with the forces it has allied with since Oct. 17, 2019, when people took to the streets and protested against everyone.”Al-Amin said Hezbollah was trying to benefit from its authority over the state and society to pass on its ideologies. It did not care about the opposition, which reflected the state’s vulnerability. Al-Amin added: “However, I think Hezbollah is trying to focus on minor issues since it is unable to answer strategic questions.
“It is practicing the same options as it does not have any answers to what kind of state and economy it wants for Lebanon and how to address corruption. Those are people’s questions, and it (the party) is taking advantage of the sectarian structure.”
Hezbollah on Friday celebrated by laying the foundation stone for a tourist monument in Janta, in Baalbek governorate, similar to the Mleeta Landmark in the south — the party’s ideological landmark where it tells the story of resisting Israeli occupation from the party’s point of view.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech that the outcome of nuclear talks in Vienna would have no impact on maritime talks aimed at delineating Lebanon's border with Israel.
"Whether a nuclear deal with Iran is signed or not, if the US mediator does not give Lebanon what it asked for in terms of its rights, we are heading toward an escalation — we are heading toward a problem," said Nasrallah. He called for keeping an eye on the Karish field, the Lebanese borders, and the US mediator, adding that the mediator was currently wasting time and running late. Hezbollah loyalists in the “civil campaign to protect the maritime wealth” have called for a march on Aug. 28. The march will start from all Lebanese ports and head toward the maritime borders in Ras Al-Naqoura. Campaign coordinator Hani Suleiman said every Lebanese citizen was concerned with this event to ascertain “our right to our water, as our right to our land.”Suleiman said the ports of Tripoli, Beirut, Sidon, Tyre, and Al-Naqoura would be ready this week and final preparations had been organized. The march will start with boats and yachts of different sizes, with numbers expected to exceed 100. They will bear the Lebanese flag to send a message to the international community and demonstrate the situation of the people at the heart of the conflict with the Israelis.

In pitch-dark Beirut National Museum of Beirut, visitors use cellphones to shine light on artifacts
Najia Houssari/Arab News/August 20, 2022
The National Museum of Beirut is in darkness as the diesel allocated by the Ministry of Culture to turn on the generators at this major tourism facility has run out. The museum has seen fewer tourists since the beginning of the summer. Its management has changed its opening hours, based on the sunlight that bathes its halls through the windows. It is now open from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m. — it used to be open from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Visitors at the National Museum of Beirut use their cellphones to light up displayed pieces. An Arab News photographer saw tourists using their cellphones to shine light on artifacts.
During a ministerial meeting, Culture Minister Mohammed Mortada complained that he was unable to provide funds allocated for buying fuel to turn on the museum’s generators after they ran out of fuel, and that the credit allocated for fuel was used up.
“Just like many other institutions, the national museum is suffering from the power crisis,” Mortada told Arab News. The crisis has become acute at a time when the tourism season is in full swing with the arrival of thousands of expats in Lebanon for the summer holidays, he said. “It’s unacceptable that they can’t visit the museum,” he added. “It’s a reflection of the poor state of affairs of the country.” Tourists discover archaeological pieces from Phoenician and Roman times at the Lebanese National Museum in Beirut. The museum has no electricity due to the economic crisis. Visitors use mobile phone light to view the displayed pieces. Apart from the power crisis, the museum also lacks a proper security system, such as the ones found worldwide that link a museum’s cameras to the nearest police station. An official from the caretaker government told Arab News: “The problem with the government is that it’s working without a budget. There are no credits to buy fuel and operate the state’s institutions.”The official said: “During the ministerial meeting, it was suggested that a support committee for the museum be established to raise the entrance fee to 100,000 Lebanese pounds ($3) from its current 15,000 … It’s true that this suggestion is bad. However, this is one way out to collect funds to buy diesel and ensure the continuity of this important tourism facility.”However, Mortada said the suggestion is “illegal as any entry fee received must directly go to the Ministry of Finance. This can’t work.”

Fouad Chehab or Elias Sarkis: What kind of presidents for Lebanon?
Mounir RABIH/L'Orient-Le Jour/August 19/2022
Several diplomatic circles and local actors would like to find a consensus not only on the name of Lebanon’s next president, but also on a two-person team
Fouad Chehab or Elias Sarkis: What kind of presidents for Lebanon?
On the left is former Lebanese President Elias Sarkis. On the right is former Lebanese President Fouad Chehab.
Officially, the constitutional deadline to elect a president starts in two weeks. As of Sept. 1, Nabih Berri can convene Parliament to elect Michel Aoun’s successor.
But this is unlikely to be a quick or easy process. Historically, electing a Lebanese president is often the result of a consensus, both internally and regionally. The talks are currently going well, and give the impression that several local and international actors have in mind two typical profiles: either a “new” Fouad Chehab or a “new” Elias Sarkis.
Chehab, a former army commander-in-chief who was elected president in 1958, is perceived as the president who modernized the Lebanese state by establishing several solid institutions. He also represented a sense of balance when it came to regional conflicts.
Meanwhile, Sarkis, a former central bank governor, was elected in 1976 as a result of his economic skills and for achieving consensus at a time of acute crisis with the outbreak of the Civil War.
Current regional developments, including a possible revival of the Iran-US nuclear deal, suggest that the upcoming new Lebanese president will be a consensus figure like Chehab or Sarkis.
Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rai was the first to pave the way for a candidate that has no partisan affiliation, publicly criticizing the concept of the “strong president” in a sermon on July 10. “We need to elect a president who is above the fray, above political and partisan alignments, a president who is not provocative, nor driven by personal interests, a president capable of serving a national and constitutional reference, with firm ethics,” said the patriarch. He thus ruled out the candidacies of the three Christian leaders who are looking to assume office: Samir Geagea, Gebran Bassil and Sleiman Frangieh.
The first two are now aware that they have zero chances in the current context. The third, close to Hezbollah and Damascus, hopes to be accepted as a consensus figure, which seems complicated.
Neither Geagea nor Bassil appears ready, for the moment, to support Marada leader Frangieh. The patriarch is also opposed to his accession to Baabda. According to information obtained by L’Orient-Le Jour, a meeting could take place soon between Rai and former presidents and prime minister to develop a roadmap for the designation of a candidate. During a meeting held on Saturday between the patriarch and Bassil, Rai stressed the need to agree on candidates who inspire confidence and trust, L’Orient-Le Jour also learned.
Hezbollah seems to have decided on Frangieh as its candidate, albeit without announcing them for the moment. “Hezbollah will not have a candidate for the presidential election, but could support one,” the party’s secretary general said in late July.
Can Hezbollah accept a compromise? This is the reason behind the initiative of Progressive Socials Party leader Walid Joumblatt, who met last week with two Hezbollah representatives in order to discuss the option of a consensus candidate.
Joseph Aoun and Jihad Azour
In parallel to the domestic activity, regional and international powers are at work. France is the country most involved in this issue and is keen to avoid a presidential vacuum at all costs.
French President Emmanuel Macron raised the issue with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman when they met in Paris last month. “Macron proposed some names to MBS,” an Arab diplomat, who declined to be named, told L’Orient-Le Jour. But it seems that the crown prince has not paid sufficient attention to the issue of Lebanon’s next president. Riyadh is expected to decide by September whether or not it will be more involved in the Lebanese scene, especially in view of the presidential election, L’Orient-Le Jour learned from a Saudi official.
The names that were leaked in the media and circulated in political circles include that of HSBC Middle East chairman Samir Assaf, who is considered close to Macron. There is also Salim Edde, co-founder of Murex and shareholder of L’Orient-Le Jour, although he is not involved in Lebanese politics. The names of Jihad Azour, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the International Monetary Fund, and former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud were also reportedly mentioned.
The non-political figure whose name is raised most often, however, is the commander-in-chief of the army, Joseph Aoun. “He has the advantage of being able to talk to everyone and could garner unanimity in the event of an agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue,” said a Western diplomat, who declined to be named.
During his talk on Saturday with the Patriarch, Bassil asked Rai for his opinion following the latter’s recent meeting in Beirut with French ambassador Anne Grillo, during which several names were mentioned.
“Bassil heard that Samir Assaf would not enjoy unanimity because he does not know the country and is far from politics,” a source close to the Free Patriotic Movement’s leader told L’Orient-Le Jour on condition of anonymity.
Our newspaper also learned that Hezbollah told the French, the UN and all those communicating with it that it is in favor of a person who will be parachuted in from abroad and who does not know the Lebanese landscape. “We can’t accept anyone who doesn’t know the meaning of the resistance,” said a Hezbollah official, who declined to be named in this article. According to him, Hezbollah has set its conditions: it will not accept a candidate who brings up the issue of the resistance’s weapons and provokes a conflict over this issue.
Back to the original equation, though: Fouad Chehab or Elias Sarkis?
Fouad Chehab’s specifications fit Joseph Aoun. “If social disorganization sets in, the army chief seems to have the best profile to stabilize the situation,” said the Western diplomat.
However, if the priority is to sign an agreement with the IMF, a president who has Elias Sarkis’ profile seems more suitable — namely Jihad Azour, who is also trusted by international forces but could face political difficulties with Hezbollah.
Several diplomatic circles and local actors would like to find a consensus not only on the name of the president, but also on a two-person team. Lebanon’s former ambassador to the UN, Nawaf Salam, is being considered for the post of prime minister in order to strengthen Lebanon’s credibility with international institutions. L’Orient-Le Jour learned that the diplomat is currently in Beirut and is intensifying contacts, mainly with Joseph Aoun. This ticket could be endorsed by the international community, and more arduously by Hezbollah.
*This article was originally published in French on L'Orient-Le Jour. Translation by Joelle El Khoury.

Aoun’s last ditch effort at making Gibran Bassil Lebanese president
Sami Moubayed/Gulf News/August 20, 2022
Move to make son-in-law the new president is entangled in the maritime talks with Israel
Michel Aoun and Gebran Bassil. Aoun wants to secure the presidency for his son-in-law and political heir Bassil. But the leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) lacks the 65-vote majority in parliament needed to secure his nomination.
Image Credit: AFP file
Constitutional jurisprudence is in full gear in Beirut, as Lebanese legal experts are asked whether their octogenarian president, Michel Aoun, can stay in office beyond the expiration of his six-year term, which ends on October 31, 2022. His supporters insist that he can, based on an article in the Lebanese Constitution, which prevents the inauguration of a new president unless sworn-in before a full-fledge cabinet of ministers, one that has received a vote of confidence from parliament. Prime Minister Najib Mikati, tasked with creating his fourth cabinet last June, is yet to form one.
If no government is ready, then there won’t be a presidential election in October, meaning an automatic extension of Aoun’s term. That means that Aoun would get to stay at Baabda Palace for an indefinite period, they say.
This claim is facing a strong counter-argument, led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was never happy with the Aoun era and wants to make sure that it ends on October 31. His initiative says that if no full-fledged cabinet is in place between now and then, then Prime Minister-designate Mikati would temporarily assume presidential powers, meaning a definite end to Aoun’s term and the temporary transfer of presidential powers from a Maronite Christian to a Lebanese Muslim.
Aoun needs to abort the [maritime] decree that has been sitting on his office desk for more than a year, waiting to be signed. Aoun will only change his position if he is given assurances for Bassil by the Americans.
Aoun has given the Lebanese public contradicting statements, insisting that he has no intention of staying in power beyond his presidential term but also saying that he won’t leave the country in a political vacuum. Those close to the ageing president confirm that he really doesn’t want to stay in power but is simply using the extension of his term as a pressure card to secure the presidency for his son-in-law and political heir Gibran Bassil, leader of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM).
That is his real goal, and ultimate objective.
Bassil, however, lacks the 65-vote majority in parliament needed to secure his nomination. Losing faith in any domestic breakthrough, Aoun is now turning to the United States, hoping to secure support of the Joe Biden Administration for Bassil’s presidential bid. That is easier said than done, due to US sanctions imposed on Bassil under former President Donald Trump back in November 2019.
The president seems to believe that he can now put that on the negotiating table, along with the political future of his son-in-law. He is using Lebanon’s maritime talks with Israel as a pretext, commenced under UN auspices, with US mediation, back in October 2020.
Aoun’s impossible conditions
Those talks were initiated based on official claims of disputed territorial waters, registered formally at the UN. Lebanon had fixed its disputed waters at 860 sq km, only to suddenly change that claim to 2,300 sq km — nearly tripling the area — at the orders of Aoun. Lebanon’s negotiating team questioned the sudden change, saying that it had no legal pretext. So did Speaker Berri, who had handled talks with the US since 2011.
Aoun had personally pushed for this amendment, in coordination with his allies in Hezbollah, forcing the cabinet of then-prime minister Hasan Diab to put it into law, which ought to have been sent to the UN as Lebanon’s new terms of reference for any future round of talks with Israel. The decree was signed by Diab and his defence minister Zena Akar and then sent to Aoun for ratification into a presidential decree.
It has been on his table ever since. He has neither signed the decree, and nor has he aborted it. Aoun is using this as his last card, waiting for the Americans to come knocking on his door, seeking his formal abandonment of the new disputed territory, in exchange for lifting sanctions on Bassil and supporting his bid for president.
The Hezbollah factor
The US envoy Amos Hochstein was in Beirut in early August, where he said that Lebanese authorities had promised him to drop demands for controlling parts of the Karish gas field, (which is an Israeli reservoir), in exchange for full control of the Qana gas field in Lebanon’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). This is the position of the Mikati cabinet, but not of Hezbollah or of Iran. With no Hezbollah support, it will not pass in any future round of negotiations, regardless of what the president does or says.
Hezbollah hopes to drown the talks altogether, insisting on the expanded territorial waters that it knows Israel would never accept. It knows that Karish is an Israeli field that no Israeli leader can abandon.
Aoun, however, is promising the US that he can talk Hezbollah into a compromise. But in return, expects a hefty reward from the Americans. To date, Hezbollah’s demands have been clear: no gas field swap with Israel, no shared fields, and no direct talks, while specifically insisting on 2,300 sq km of disputed waters, rather than 860 sq km.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, tasked with creating his fourth cabinet last June, is yet to form one.
It is highly doubtful that Aoun has enough leverage to convince Hezbollah into abandoning its conditions. The two sides reached a tactic alliance in February 2006, where in exchange for Aoun’s support for Hezbollah arms, they would support making him president. Both have lived up to their sides of the agreement, and now, with Aoun’s term coming to an end, the Iran-backed party feels that it is under no obligation to accommodate Aoun any further.
It is an open secret that the party does not support Bassil for president, preferring instead their long-time ally Suleiman Frangieh of the Marada Movement.
When the maritime talks began in 2020, Aoun tried to impose himself on the negotiations, but came against a brick wall from Hezbollah. He called expanding the negotiating team by seeking to insert staffers from Baabda Palace, which was flatly rejected by Hezbollah. So was a suggestion to attach politicians and ex-foreign ministers to the Lebanese delegation, which would automatically make Bassil a member given that he is a former foreign minister.
Nasrallah is simply uninterested in giving the talks any legitimacy, wanting them to come to collapse. He has recently gone a step further, giving Israel a deadline by the end of September to stop potential drilling at Karish, threatening war if they don’t. On July 2, drones were flown over Karish, sent either by Iran or Hezbollah, bringing the two sides to a near confrontation. Those drones were “only the beginning,” warned Nasrallah. But that was on July 13, after the JCPOA talks had collapsed earlier this summer. Now with them back on the table in full gear, it is highly unlikely that Iran would push Hezbollah into any military confrontation with Israel, certainly not if the Vienna talks bear fruit.
In his most recent comments, Hochstein said that he was “optimistic” about reaching a deal, based on promises he had heard from President Aoun on August 1. Mikati wants the deal to materialise, desperate for a success story to give legitimacy to his premiership. Aoun too wants them to bear fruit, but only if his conditions are met.
The Americans are trying to meet him halfway, promising that Israel would not start drilling before the talks are concluded. The US envoy added that there was also no intention of sharing disputed territory with Israel, a statement that hopes to soothe Hezbollah worries. Aoun replied that Lebanon’s position was now all waters up to Line 23 (slightly north of the Karish field), including the entire Qana field.
That, however, is still not enough for a deal to pass with Hezbollah.
For this deal to pass, Lebanon needs to formally abandon its claim to Karish, thus returning to the original 860 sq km of disputed waters. For that to happen, Aoun needs to abort the decree that has been sitting on his office desk for more than a year, waiting to be signed. Aoun will only change his position if he is given assurances for Bassil by the Americans — which to date, don’t seem forthcoming.
*Sami Moubayed is a Syrian historian and former Carnegie scholar. He is also author of Under the Black Flag: At the frontier of the New Jihad.

The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous Reports And News published August 20-21/2022
Authors and friends rally and read for Salman Rushdie
Associated Press/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
Friends and fellow authors spoke out on Salman Rushdie's behalf during a rally on the steps of the main branch of the New York Public Library, one week after he was attacked onstage in the western part of the state and hospitalized with stab wounds. Rushdie's condition has improved, and, according to his literary agent, he has been removed from a ventilator. Jeffrey Eugenides, Tina Brown and Kiran Desai were among those who shared wishes for a full recovery, told stories of Rushdie as an inspiration and defender of free expression, and read passages from his books, essays and speeches, including from "The Satanic Verses," the 1988 novel that was condemned by some Muslims as blasphemous. Rushdie spent years in hiding after Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini issued a 1989 edict, a fatwa, calling for his death, but had traveled freely over the past two decades.
The hourlong "Stand With Salman" gathering was presented in part by the library, by Rushdie's publisher, Penguin Random House, and by the literary and human rights organization PEN America. Hundreds were in attendance, many affiliated with PEN, of which the 75-year-old Rushdie is a former president. "He's been a constant, indefatigable champion of words and of writers attacked for the purported crime of their work," said the day's first speaker, PEN CEO Suzanne Nossel. "Today, we will celebrate Salman for what he has endured, but even more importantly, because of what he has engendered — the stories, characters, metaphors and images he has given to the world."The rally did not include any new words from Rushdie, but Nossel said he was aware of the event and even made suggestions for what to read. Rushdie's son Zafar Rushdie, who has been with his father, tweeted that "it was great to see a crowd gathered" outside the library. "Stand With Salman" took place the day after a judge in Mayville, New York, denied bail to 24-year-old Hadi Matar, who has pleaded not guilty to attempted murder and assault. While in jail, Matar told the New York Post that he disdained Rushdie as anti-Muslim and expressed admiration for the Ayatollah. On Friday, other readers included the author and journalist Gay Talese, author and former PEN president Andrew Solomon, and the poet, lawyer and activist Reginald Dwayne Betts. Actor Aasif Mandvi read from Rushdie's upcoming novel, "Victory City," which he completed before the attack and includes the passage "I myself am nothing now. All that remains is the city of words. Words are the only victors." Eugenides, whose novels include the Pulitzer Prize-winning "Middlesex," remembered traveling to London in the early 1980s. Eugenides was 20 and Rushdie's breakthrough novel "Midnight's Children" had recently been published. He knew Rushdie lived there and decided he wanted to meet him. It was years before "The Satanic Verses," and Eugenides found his name and address in the phone book.
"I took the tube out to his house. As it turned out, Salman wasn't at home; he was in Italy, vacationing," said Eugenides, who was greeted by Rushdie's then-mother-in-law and left a note for the author.
"That was the world we used to live in," Eugenides added.

Eight dead as Somali forces battle Al-Shabaab at besieged hotel
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
At least eight civilians have been killed in an Islamist militant attack on a popular hotel in the Somali capital, an official said Saturday, as security forces continued to battle gunmen barricaded inside. Fighters from the al-Qaida-linked Al-Shabaab stormed the Hayat Hotel in Mogadishu on Friday evening in a hail of gunfire and bomb blasts, trapping scores of people. Sporadic gunfire and loud explosions could still be heard early Saturday. It is the biggest attack in Mogadishu since Somalia's new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, was elected in May after many months of political instability. "The security forces continued to neutralize terrorists who have been cordoned inside a room in the hotel building. Most of the people were rescued but at least eight civilians were confirmed dead so far," security commander Mohamed Abdikadir told AFP. "The security forces rescued dozens of civilians including children who were trapped in the building." Al-Shabaab, which has been waging a deadly insurgency against Somalia's fragile central government for about 15 years, claimed responsibility for the attack and said it was still in control of the hotel Saturday. Dozens of people have been gathering outside the four-story hotel to discover the fate of loved ones. "We have been looking for a relative of mine who was trapped inside the hotel, she was confirmed dead together with six other people, two of them I know," said one anxious witness Muudey Ali. There has been no official comment from the government about the attack.
Two blasts
Witnesses reported at least two large explosions as the gunmen stormed the hotel, a popular spot frequented by government officials and ordinary Somalis in a bustling area on the airport road. Police spokesman Abdifatah Adan Hassan had told reporters late Friday that the initial blast was caused by a suicide bomber who forced his way into the hotel with several other gunmen. Witnesses said a second blast occurred just a few minutes later, inflicting casualties on rescuers and members of the security forces and civilians who rushed to the scene after the first explosion. The militants claimed responsibility in a brief statement on a pro-Shabaab website, saying its fighters were carrying out "random shooting" inside the hotel. Al-Shabaab spokesman Abdiaziz Abu-Musab told the group's Andalus radio on Saturday that its forces were still in control of the building and that they had "inflicted heavy casualties". Earlier this week, the United States announced that its forces had killed 13 Al-Shabaab fighters in an air strike in the central-southern part of the country as the Islamist militants were attacking Somali forces. The US has carried out several air raids on the militants in recent weeks. In May, President Joe Biden ordered the re-establishment of a US troop presence in Somalia to help local authorities combat Al-Shabaab, reversing a decision by his predecessor Donald Trump to withdraw most US forces.In recent weeks, Al-Shabaab fighters have also launched attacks on the Somalia-Ethiopia border, raising concerns about a possible new strategy by the jihadists.
- Decades of chaos -
Somalia's new president Mohamud said last month that ending Al-Shabaab's insurgency required more than a military approach, but that his government would negotiate with the group only when the time was right. Al-Shabaab fighters were driven out of the capital in 2011 by an African Union force, but the group still controls swathes of countryside. It continues to launch deadly strikes on political, civilian and military targets, with popular hotels and restaurants frequently hit. Earlier this month, new Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre announced the appointment of the group's former deputy leader and spokesman, Muktar Robow, as religion minister. Robow, 53, publicly defected from Al-Shabaab in August 2017, with the US government at one point offering a $5 million bounty for his capture. The Horn of Africa nation has been mired in chaos since the fall of the military regime of President Siad Barre in 1991. His ouster was followed by a civil war and the ascendancy of Al-Shabaab. The deadliest attack in Somalia occurred in October 2017 when a truck packed with explosives blew up in a bustling commercial district of Mogadishu, killing 512 people. As well as the grinding jihadist insurgency, Somalia is also in the grip of a devastating drought that has driven one million people from their homes and left the country in the shadow of famine, according to the United Nations.

Iran Deal Tantalizingly Close, but US Faces New Hurdles
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
Last week’s attack on author Salman Rushdie and the indictment of an Iranian national in a plot to kill former national security adviser John Bolton have given the Biden administration new headaches as it attempts to negotiate a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. A resolution may be tantalizingly close. But as the US and Europe weigh Iran’s latest response to an EU proposal described as the West’s final offer, the administration faces new and potentially insurmountable domestic political hurdles to forging a lasting agreement. Deal critics in Congress who have long vowed to blow up any pact have ratcheted up their opposition to negotiations with a country whose leadership has refused to rescind the death threats against Rushdie or Bolton. Iran also vows to avenge the Trump administration’s 2020 assassination of a top Iranian general by killing former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Iran envoy Brian Hook, both of whom remain under 24/7 taxpayer-paid security protection. Although such threats are not covered by the deal, which relates solely to Iran’s nuclear program, they underscore deal opponents’ arguments that Iran cannot be trusted with the billions of dollars in sanctions relief it will receive if and when it and the US return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, a signature foreign policy accomplishment of the Obama administration that President Donald Trump withdrew from in 2018, reported The Associated Press.
“This is a tougher deal to sell than the 2015 deal in that this time around there are no illusions that it will serve to moderate Iranian behavior or lead to greater US-Iran cooperation,” said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The Iranian government stands to get tens of billions in sanctions relief, and the organizing principle of the regime will continue to be opposition to the United States and violence against its critics, both at home and abroad,” he said. Iran has denied any link with Rushdie’s alleged attacker, an American citizen who was indicted for attempted murder and has pleaded not guilty in the Aug. 12 stabbing at a literary event in Western New York. But Iranian state media have celebrated Iran’s long-standing antipathy toward Rushdie since the 1988 publication of his book “The Satanic Verses,” which some believe is insulting to Islam. Media linked to Iran’s leadership have lauded the attacker for following through on a 1989 decree, or fatwa, calling for Rushdie to be killed that was signed by Iran’s then-Supreme Leader Khomeini.
And the man who was charged with plotting to murder Bolton is a member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps. The Justice Department alleges the IRGC tried to pay $300,000 to people in the United States to avenge the death of Qassam Suleimani, the head of its Quds Force who was killed by a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020. “I think it’s delusional to believe that a regime that you’re about to enter into a significant arms control agreement with can be depended on to comply with its obligations or is even serious about the negotiation when it’s plotting the assassination of high-level former government officials and current government officials,” Bolton told reporters Wednesday. “It certainly looks like the attack on Salman Rushdie had a Revolutionary Guard component,” Bolton said. “We’ve got to stop this artificial division when dealing with the government of Iran between its nuclear activities on the one hand and its terrorist activities on the other.”
Others agree.
“Granting terrorism sanctions relief amid ongoing terror plots on US soil is somewhere between outrageous and lunacy,” said Rich Goldberg, a former Trump administration national security council staffer and longtime deal critic who is now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which has also lobbied against a return to the JCPOA. While acknowledging the seriousness of the plots, administration officials contend that they are unrelated to the nuclear issue and do nothing to change their long-held belief that an Iran with a nuclear weapon would be more dangerous and less constrained than an Iran without one. “The JCPOA is about the single, central challenge we face with Iran, the core challenge, what would be the most threatening challenge we could possibly face from Iran, and that is a nuclear weapon,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said this week. “There is no doubt that a nuclear-armed Iran would feel an even greater degree of impunity, and would pose an even greater threat, a far greater threat, to countries in the region and potentially well beyond.” “Every challenge we face with Iran, whether it is its support for proxies, its support for terrorist groups, its ballistic missiles program, its malign cyber activities — every single one of those — would be more difficult to confront were Iran to have a nuclear weapons program,” he said. That argument, however, will be challenged in Congress by lawmakers who opposed the 2015 deal, saying it gave Iran a path to develop nuclear weapons by time-limiting the most onerous restrictions on its nuclear activities. They say there's now even more tangible evidence that Iran’s malign behavior make it impossible to deal with. Two of the most outspoken critics of the deal, Republican senators Ted Cruz of Texas and Tom Cotton of Arkansas, have weighed in on what the Rushdie attack should mean for the administration. The Iranians “have been trying to murder Salman Rushdie for decades,” Cruz said. “Their incitement and their contacts with this terrorist resulted in an attack. This vicious terrorist attack needs to be completely condemned. The Biden administration must finally cease appeasing the Iranian regime.”“Iran’s leaders have been calling for the murder of Salman Rushdie for decades,” said Cotton. “We know they’re trying to assassinate American officials today. Biden needs to immediately end negotiations with this terrorist regime.”Under the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, or INARA, the administration must submit any agreement with Iran for congressional review within five days of it being sealed. That begins a 30-day review period during which lawmakers may weigh in and no sanctions relief can be offered. That timeline means that even if a deal is reached within the next week, the administration will not be able to start moving on sanctions relief until the end of September, just a month from crucial congressional midterm elections. And, it will take additional time for Iran to begin seeing the benefits of such relief because of logistical constraints. While deal critics in the current Congress are unlikely to be able to kill a deal, if Republicans win back control of Congress in the midterms, they may be able to nullify any sanctions relief. “Even if Iran accepts President Biden’s full capitulation and agrees to reenter the Iran nuclear deal, Congress will never vote to remove sanctions,” the GOP minority on the House Armed Services Committee said in a tweet on Wednesday. “In fact, Republicans in Congress will work to strengthen sanctions against Iran.”

Drone shot down at Russia's Black Sea fleet headquarters
Agence France Presse/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
A drone was shot down over the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in annexed Crimea on Saturday, a local official said. "The drone was shot down just above the fleet headquarters" in the city of Sevastopol, city governor Mikhail Razvojaev wrote on Telegram, blaming the attempt on Ukrainian forces. "It fell on the roof and caught fire," he said, adding that there was no major damage or victims. It was the second attempted attack against the fleet headquarters in less than a month. On July 31 a drone attack in the headquarters courtyard wounded five people and led to the cancellation of celebrations that had been planned for Fleet Day. It also marked the latest attack to target Russian military infrastructure in Crimea, a Black Sea peninsula that Moscow seized and annexed from Ukraine in 2014. On Saturday, air defense systems were activated in Evpatoria in western Crimea. On Thursday, Russian forces shot down a drone near an air base in Sevastopol. On Tuesday, explosions ripped through a military base and ammunition depot in Crimea. In early August, a blast at the Saki air base killed one person and wounded several others.

Russia Accuses US of Pursuing Issues Unrelated to Iran Nuclear Deal
Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
Russia blamed on Friday the United States of seeking agreements on issues unrelated to the nuclear file in its negotiations with Tehran over its nuclear deal. Russia's Governor to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mikhail Ulyanov expected diplomatic efforts to conclude in the coming days. Conflicting reports have emerged that Washington would soon respond to a package of suggestions proposed by Iran in response to the European Union’s "final" proposal over the nuclear deal. Ulyanov said the parties to the nuclear talks could reach a unanimous agreement about reviving the deal on September 1. He revealed that "several issues" have been reached to revive the 2015 pact, which sought to limit Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. The EU is trying to bridge divides, but "we have the impression that Washington wants to resolve issues that are unrelated to the nuclear deal," he added.
On Monday night, Tehran announced that it had submitted its "written response to the text proposed by the European Union," saying that an agreement would be reached if the American answer was realistic and flexible. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Tuesday the administration is reviewing Tehran’s response. The EU also said it was studying Iran's response. After 16 months of fitful, indirect US-Iranian talks, with the EU shuttling between the parties, a senior EU official said on Aug. 8 the bloc had laid down a "final" offer and expected a response within a "very, very few weeks". Washington has said it is ready to quickly seal a deal to restore the accord on the basis of the EU proposals.

Israeli Mossad Hires Woman to Lead Battle against Iran
Tel Aviv - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
The Israeli Mossad appointed a woman as deputy chief of the intelligence agency that handles operations against Iran. The new official joins another woman, who is in charge of the information collection and analysis department, with Iran being one of the main targets. With that, the Mossad has now tasked women with leading the battle against Iran. The agency currently runs Israeli operations against Tehran, including collecting intelligence, carrying out assassinations and strikes that the foreign media largely attributes to Israel. A recent report revealed that women make up 40 percent of the Mossad. The Mossad issued a statement, for the first time in its history, to announce the appointments. It did not reveal the name of the two women, but referred to them with the first letter of their first names. A., took up her role recently as head of the Mossad’s Intelligence Department, which is equal to the level of the head of Military Intelligence in the Israeli army, reported the Jerusalem Post. She will be tasked with the formation of the strategic intelligence picture at the national level on a series of topics, including the Iranian nuclear threat, global terrorism and normalization with the Arab world. The second woman, K., was appointed to head the Iran Department. She is responsible for the organization’s “strategy against the Iranian threat in all its forms” and for coordinating between the operational, technological and intelligence branches of the Mossad in conjunction with the army and other relevant security branches, the statement said.
The Mossad’s Intelligence Department, currently managed by two women, A. and her deputy, H., is considered one of the organization’s core anchors and growth engines, added the Post. Mossad chief David Barnea welcomed the move, saying, “as soon as one enters the gates of the organization, there is complete equality between men and women. Many women serve in all roles in operations, as agents and operators of agents, and are integrated into the core of operations and intelligence, with talent, professionalism and energy.”

US Senators Urge Extension of Iran Energy Sanctions
London - Washington - Asharq Al-Awsat/Saturday, 20 August, 2022
A bipartisan group of senators on Friday introduced a bill to permanently extend the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996, which allowed the US to impose sanctions on Iran’s energy sector. The bill was introduced by Republicans Tim Scott and Bill Hagerty, and Democrats Maggie Hassan and Jacky Rosen. It aims to extend the restrictions imposed in the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) of 1996 beyond 2026, when they are set to expire. The US Congress has extended the Act numerous times since it first expired in 2011.On December 1, 2016, ISA was extended for a further ten years. “The United States, Israel, and our Arab partners remain concerned about the looming threat that a nuclear Iran poses to the stability of the region,” said Senator Scott in a statement on Friday. He added that US sanctions are a necessary deterrent for this dangerous and unstable regime, which is why the bill will make the cornerstone of sanctions on Iran permanent. For her part, Rosen argued that the 1996 bill “helped bring Iran to the negotiating table”, and that the new legislation “ensures we maintain the full range of our economic and diplomatic tools to prevent Iran from ever acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.”Last Tuesday, Senator Hagerty issued a statement to announce his support for the bill. “As Iran increases its nuclear and ballistic missile threats and its support for terrorism and militancy in the Middle East, the United States should not ease sanctions and make it easier for the regime to continue its malign behavior,” he said. Also, Senator Hassan stressed that this bipartisan legislation is important for restraining Iran's ability to pursue weapons and technology that threaten the US national security. In 1996, ISA allowed the president to impose secondary sanctions on Iran’s energy sector. Throughout the years, ISA provisions were expanded to include other Iranian industries. In 2010, the Act was amended to require the United States to slap sanctions on foreign companies that invest more than $20 million a year in Iran's oil or gas sector. The bipartisan bill comes as the US and Iran appear to be close to a nuclear deal, after the European Union sent a final offer for reaching a deal on nuclear talks that started between both sides 16 months ago.Iran responded to the text, and reportedly asked for reassurances that the US respects Tehran’s red lines.

Ukraine's daring attacks on Crimea are having a major 'psychological impact' on Russian forces, report says
Alia Shoaib/ Business Insider/August 20, 2022
A series of strikes have been carried out on Crimea, which Ukraine has claimed or implied responsibility for. The attacks are having a major psychological and operational impact on Russian forces, Western officials said. More than half of Russia's Black Sea fleet's naval jets are out of action, the report said.
Ukraine's attacks on Crimea are having a significant psychological and operational impact on Russian forces, Western officials told journalists, according to the BBC. In recent weeks, a series of audacious strikes have been carried out on Crimea, including explosions at the Saki airbase, explosions at an ammunition dump, and multiple alleged drone attacks on Sevastopol. On Saturday, footage circulated on social media appeared to show smoke billowing from a fresh drone attack on Russia's Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. Ukrainian officials have avoided claiming public responsibility for all of the attacks but have often implied responsibility. An unnamed Ukrainian official told The New York Times that an "elite" military unit "behind enemy lines" was responsible for the blasts in Saki. The attacks could be the work of Ukrainians who have trained closely with US special operators since 2014, Insider's Stavros Atlamazoglou previously reported. The Western officials, who spoke to the media unattributably on background, said that the strikes had depleted Russia's Black Sea fleet, with more than half of their naval jets now out of action, the BBC reported. The once revered fleet has also suffered significant losses of its ships at the hands of Ukraine, including the sinking of its Moskva warship in April. The setbacks have forced the fleet to adopt a defensive posture, officials said. Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, which most of the international community considered illegal. Up until August, Crimea has been considered out of reach of Ukrainian attacks, officials said, per the BBC. The attacks on the Saki air base on August 9, which destroyed eight fighter jets, caused Russian tourists to flee from the peninsula and psychologically affected Moscow, officials told the BBC. Crimea has provided the main supply route for Russian invasion forces in southern Ukraine, and the recent attacks have weakened this. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reported to have replaced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet following the explosions, demoting admiral Igor Osipov in favor of his former deputy, Viktor Sokolov, state news agency RIA said, according to Reuters. If confirmed, Osipov's demotion would mark the most major sacking of a military official since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine in February.
According to the BBC, Russian state media reported that Sokolov told officers they would receive 12 new vessels, indicating that Moscow is attempting to re-arm its weakened fleet. Following the recent attacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the war must end with Crimea's liberation. "Crimea is Ukrainian, and we will never give it up," the president said, according to the BBC, without directly mentioning the blasts.

Russian shelling, Ukrainian airstrike reflect broadening war
PAUL BYRNE and JOANNA KOZLOWSKA/ Los Angeles Times/August 20, 2022
Russian forces stepped up their battle to seize one of the dwindling number of cities in embattled eastern Ukraine not already under their control while continuing to fire on towns and villages in the country's north and south, Ukrainian officials said Saturday.
Russian shelling collapsed balconies and blew out windows in the southern region of Mykolayiv, injuring at least nine civilians, authorities said. A five-story apartment building and private homes in the town of Voznesensk were badly damaged, the Black Sea region's governor said. “As of 13.30 p.m. [local time] — nine wounded, including four children. All children in a serious condition. Ages range from 3 to 17 years,” Gov. Vitaliy Kim wrote in a Telegram post. He added that a young girl lost an eye as a result of Saturday's attack. Reflecting the broadening front lines of the nearly 6-month war in Ukraine, a Ukrainian airstrike hit targets in the largest Russian-occupied city in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, according to Ukrainian and Kremlin-backed local officials. The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol said preliminary reports pointed to “a precise hit” on a Russian military base. The head of the Kremlin-backed administration said the attack damaged residential areas and slightly injured one civilian. In its daily update, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said intensified combat took place around Bakhmut, a small city whose capture would enable Russia to threaten the two largest remaining Ukrainian-held urban centers in the eastern Donbas region. Bakhmut has for weeks been a key target of Moscow’s eastern offensive as the Russian military tries to complete a months-long campaign to conquer all of the Donbas, an industrial region that borders Russia where pro-Moscow separatists have self-proclaimed a pair of independent republics. A local Ukrainian official reported sustained fighting Saturday morning near four settlements on the border between Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, which together make up the contested region. Luhansk Gov. Serhii Haidai did not name the settlements or mention Bakhmut, which lies around 16 miles from the border between the two provinces. Russian forces overran nearly all of Luhansk last month and since then have focused on capturing Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk. Russian shelling killed seven civilians Friday in Donetsk province, including four in Bakhmut, Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote Saturday on Telegram. Taking Bakhmut would give the Russians room to advance on the province’s main Ukrainian-held cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The General Staff update said Sloviansk and Kramatorsk also were targeted Friday along with the Kharkiv region to the north, home to Ukraine's second-largest city.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv commented on the airstrike aimed at Russian-occupied Melitopol in southern Ukraine. Earlier Saturday morning, the Russian Defense Ministry's spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, claimed that pro-Russia forces had shot down Ukrainian shells near the city, as well as near a key power station in the Kherson region, which the Russians seized early in the war.
The head of the Kremlin-installed administration in Melitopol confirmed Saturday that the city had come under Ukrainian fire. “During the night, the Kyiv regime launched two attacks on our beautiful Melitopol, on residential areas of the city. Russian air defense systems shot down missiles, but as a result of the shelling, the houses of residents on [two] streets were partially destroyed and damaged,” Galina Danilchenko said on Telegram. The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Ferodov, said local Ukrainian authorities were gathering information on the strike.
“Tonight, there were powerful explosions in Melitopol, which the whole city heard," Ferodov said. "According to preliminary data, [it was] a precise hit on one of the Russian military bases, which the Russian fascists are trying to restore for the umpteenth time in the airfield area.”
Shortly after Dalnichenko’s post, Ferodov reported that residential areas in the city were hit but he blamed that strike that destroyed about 10 homes on the Moscow-backed forces stationed in Melitopol. He also reiterated his earlier claim that a Ukrainian airstrike badly damaged a Russian military base.
The Ukrainian governor of the southern Zaporizhzhia region, which is partly controlled by Russia and where Melitopol is located, said late Friday evening that a child was seriously injured by Russian shelling on the outskirts of the regional capital that day.
The governor, Oleksandr Starukh, said on Telegram that the 8-year-old girl remained on a ventilator following surgery, but was in “stable” condition. Starch added that the same attack in the city of Zaporizhzhia left two adult civilians with “injuries of moderate severity.”Ukrainian officials have indicated plans for a counter-offensive to win back occupied areas in the country's south while Russia had most of its focus on the east. Local authorities reported renewed Russian shelling overnight along a broad front, including of the northern Kharkiv and Sumy regions, which border Russia, as well as of the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and Mykolayiv.
*This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Russians down Ukrainian drones in Crimea as war broadens
KYIV, Ukraine (AP)August 20/2022
— Russian authorities on Saturday reported shooting down Ukrainian drones in Crimea, while Ukrainian officials said Russian forces pressed ahead with efforts to seize one of the few cities in eastern Ukraine not already under their control and kept up their strikes on communities in the north and south.
In Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, Russian authorities said local air defenses shot down a drone above the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. It was the second drone incident at the headquarters in three weeks and followed explosions at a Russian airfield and ammunition depot on the peninsula this month. An aide to Crimea’s governor, Oleg Kryuchkov, also said Saturday that “attacks by small drones” triggered air-defense systems in western Crimea. He did not elaborate. Russia considers Crimea to be Russian territory now, especially after building a huge bridge to the peninsula from the Russian mainland, but Ukrainian officials have never accepted its annexation by Russia.
Mikhail Razvozhaev, the governor of Sevastopol, the Crimean city where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based, said the drone that was shot down there fell on the roof of the fleet headquarters and did not cause casualties or major damage.
But the incident underlined Russian forces’ vulnerability in Crimea. A drone attack on the Black Sea headquarters on July 31 injured five people and forced the cancellation of observances of Russia’s Navy Day.
This week, a Russian ammunition depot in Crimea was hit by an explosion. Last week, nine Russian warplanes were reported destroyed at an airbase on Crimea.
Ukrainian authorities have stopped short of publicly claiming responsibility. But President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alluded to Ukrainian attacks behind enemy lines after the blasts in Crimea, which Russia has blamed on “sabotage.”
Meanwhile, fighting in southern Ukrainian areas just north of Crimea has stepped up in recent weeks as Ukrainian forces try to drive Russian forces out of cities they have occupied since early in the six-month-old war.
Russian shelling shelling injured at least nine people and damaged houses and an apartment block in the town of Voznesensk in the Mykolaiv region, the region’s governor Vitaliy Kim said Saturday.
A Ukrainian airstrike hit targets in Melitopol, the largest Russian-controlled city in the Zaporizhzhia region, 100 kilometers (65 miles) north of Crimea, according to Ukrainian and Russia-installed local officials.
Ukraine’s military General Staff said Saturday that intensified combat took place around Bakhmut, a small city whose capture would enable Russia to threaten the two largest remaining Ukrainian-held cities in the eastern Donbas region.
Bakhmut for weeks has been a key target of Moscow’s eastern offensive as the Russian military tries to complete a months-long campaign to conquer all of the Donbas, where pro-Moscow separatists have proclaimed two republics that Russia recognized as sovereign states at the beginning of the war.
A local Ukrainian official reported sustained fighting Saturday near four settlements on the border of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces, which together make up the contested Donbas region. Luhansk Gov. Serhii Haidai did not name the settlements. Russian forces overran nearly all of Luhansk last month and since then have focused on capturing Ukrainian-held areas of Donetsk.
Russian shelling killed seven civilians Friday in Donetsk province, including four in Bakhmut, Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote Saturday on Telegram. Taking Bakhmut would give the Russians room to advance on the province’s main Ukrainian-held cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Ukraine's General Staff said Sloviansk and Kramatorsk were targeted Friday, along with the Kharkiv region to the north, home to Ukraine’s second-largest city.
Neither Moscow nor Kyiv commented have commented on the Melitopol airstrike, but the head of the Russia-installed administration in Melitopol, Galina Danilchenko, confirmed Saturday that the city had come under Ukrainian fire.
The Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Ferodov, said local Ukrainian authorities were gathering information on the strike. “Tonight, there were powerful explosions in Melitopol, which the whole city heard,” Ferodov said. “According to preliminary data, (it was) a precise hit on one of the Russian military bases, which the Russian fascists are trying to restore for the umpteenth time in the airfield area.”
Ukrainian officials have indicated plans for a counteroffensive to win back occupied areas in the south while Russia had most of its focus on the east.
Local authorities reported renewed Russian shelling overnight along a broad front, including of the northern Kharkiv and Sumy regions, which border Russia, as well as of the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and Mykolaiv.
Kozlowska reported from London.
Paul Byrne And Joanna Kozlowska, The Associated Press

The Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published August 20-21/2022
ماجد رفي زاده/معهد جيتستون: تملق ادارة الرئيس بايدن واسترضائها الذليل لملالي إيران يخاطر بحياة الأميركيين
Biden Admin’s Appeasement of Iran Mullahs Risking American Lives
Majid Rafizadeh/Gatestone Institute/August 20/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111376/majid-rafizadeh-gatestone-institute-biden-admins-appeasement-of-iran-mullahs-risking-american-lives-%d9%85%d8%a7%d8%ac%d8%af-%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d8%b2%d8%a7%d8%af%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%b9%d9%87%d8%af/
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was reportedly the second target of the Iranian regime. The IRGC member reportedly offered $1 million for his murder.
The Biden administration remains silent and evidently continues to see "diplomacy" -- read: appeasement -- as the only path to deal with the Iranian regime. "I continue to believe, Biden said on July 14, "that diplomacy is the best way to achieve this outcome."
If the White House does not send a strong message to the Islamic Republic-- specifically, halting the nuclear talks and imposing sanctions on top Iranian officials -- Iran's rulers will be further empowered and emboldened to carry out extraterritorial assassinations on US soil, and if the Americans are starry-eyed enough to sign a "nuclear deal" with the mullahs -- a deal that only one side will honor -- the mullahs will also be immensely enriched.
As seen from the previous windfall provided to them by the Obama administration, Iran's mullahs did not use the money for food banks or battered women's shelters; they used it to have the Houthis terrorize Yemen, an American ally and attack Saudi Arabia; seize ships in international waters, build at least 12 bases in Syria; send funds and arms to Hamas and Islamic Jihad to obliterate Israel. Ever since Israel turned over all of Gaza to the Arabs in 2005, more than 22,5000 rockets have been fired at it from there. In 2021, Israel was bombarded by 4,340 rockets; this month, Islamic Jihad, in only two days, launched 400 rockets toward Israel. Suppose just one rocket was fired into London, Paris, New York or Berlin....?
Iran, called by the US Department of State a "top sponsor of state terrorism," recently inked a 20-year "cooperation deal" with Venezuela, after long history of "sending arms and troops" there.
A deal, besides soon allowing the mullahs as many nuclear bombs -- legitimately -- as they would like, would also lead to the removal of major economic sanctions, enhance the regime's global legitimacy, unfreeze Tehran's assets, and give the ruling clerics access to the global financial system. If the Europeans and Americans imagine that at some point the Iranians will not use their gentle persuasions on them, they are in for a sobering surprise. The Iranian regime's highest priority, apart from staying in power, is to "export the revolution." Europe and America will not be overlooked.
Apparently thanks to the hapless appearance of the Biden's administration's appeasement policy with the ruling mullahs of Iran, the regime is escalating its attempts to murder US officials and citizens on American soil.
A member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Shahram Poursafi, aka Mehdi Rezayi, 45, of Tehran, was charged on August 11, 2022 with a terrorist plot to pay an individual in the United States $300,000 to murder a former US government official, Ambassador John Bolton.
Bolton previously served as the 25th US Ambassador to the United Nations from 2005 to 2006 under the Bush administration, and as the 26th US National Security Advisor from 2018 to 2019 under the Trump administration. According to the US Department of Justice:
"An Iranian national and member of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was charged by complaint, unsealed today in the District of Columbia, with use of interstate commerce facilities in the commission of murder-for-hire and with providing and attempting to provide material support to a transnational murder plot."
Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was reportedly the second target of the Iranian regime. The IRGC member reportedly offered $1 million for him murder. In addition, a man armed with an AK-47 assault rifle showed up at the Brooklyn, NY home of Iranian-American author and human rights activist Masih Alinejad. Last year, she was the target of a kidnapping plot in which she says she would have been killed. There are more likely other US citizens on the regime's murder list as well.
"An attempted assassination of a former U.S. Government official on U.S. soil is completely unacceptable and will not be tolerated," said Steven M. D'Antuono, Assistant Director in Charge of the FBI Washington Field Office. The Biden administration remains silent and evidently continues to see "diplomacy" -- read: appeasement -- as the only path to deal with the Iranian regime. "I continue to believe, Biden said on July 14, "that diplomacy is the best way to achieve this outcome."
These attempts to kill US citizens on American soil by the Tehran regime are unprecedented. The Iranian regime is not just targeting former US officials on the American soil; it is also targeting activists and journalists who criticize the theocratic establishment.
By attempting to assassinate American citizens on American soil, Iran is deliberately violating US sovereignty. In case of the attempted kidnapping of Alinejad, prosecutors charged four Iranians, Alireza Shavaroghi Farahani, aka Vezerat Salimi/Haj Ali, 50; Mahmoud Khazein, 42; Kiya Sadeghi, 35; and Omid Noori, 45, who are believed to be intelligence operatives for the Iranian regime. A fifth person, Niloufar Bahadorifar, a California resident, also originally from Iran, was charged with allegedly providing financial assistance for the plot, sanctions violations conspiracy, bank and wire fraud conspiracy, and money laundering conspiracy.
The US Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Audrey Strauss, said:
"As alleged, four of the defendants monitored and planned to kidnap a U.S. citizen of Iranian origin who has been critical of the regime's autocracy, and to forcibly take their intended victim to Iran, where the victim's fate would have been uncertain at best."
These types of orders to carry out extraterritorial assassinations most likely come from the top of the political ladder in the Islamic Republic. But the Biden administration is not taking the security of all the American people seriously. Even The Washington Post pointed out that the attempted kidnapping should be a serious warning to the Biden administration:
"The message for the Biden administration, which has frequently proclaimed its intention to defend pro-democracy dissidents, is that Iran and other foreign dictatorships won't shrink from launching attacks inside the United States unless deterred..."
If the White House does not send a strong message to the Islamic Republic-- specifically, halting the nuclear talks and imposing sanctions on top Iranian officials -- Iran's rulers will be further empowered and emboldened to carry out extraterritorial assassinations on US soil, and if the Americans are starry-eyed enough to sign a "nuclear deal" with the mullahs -- a deal that only one side will honor -- the mullahs will also be immensely enriched.
As seen from the previous windfall provided to them by the Obama administration, Iran's mullahs did not use the money for food banks or battered women's shelters; they used it to have the Houthis terrorize Yemen, an American ally and attack Saudi Arabia; seize ships in international waters, build at least 12 bases in Syria; send funds and arms to Hamas and Islamic Jihad to obliterate Israel. Ever since Israel turned over all of Gaza to the Arabs in 2005, more than 22,5000 rockets have been fired at it from there. In 2021, Israel was bombarded by 4,340 rockets; this month, Islamic Jihad, in only two days, launched 400 rockets toward Israel. Suppose just one rocket was fired into London, Paris, New York or Berlin....?
The Biden administration seems focused on reviving the lethal nuclear deal which will doubtless lead to nuclear weapons, missiles to deliver them, and attempts to take over still more countries.
Iran, called by the US Department of State a "top sponsor of state terrorism," recently inked a 20-year "cooperation deal" with Venezuela, after long history of "sending arms and troops" there.
A deal, besides soon allowing the mullahs as many nuclear bombs -- legitimately -- as they would like, would also lead to the removal of major economic sanctions, enhance the regime's global legitimacy, unfreeze Tehran's assets, and give the ruling clerics access to the global financial system. If the Europeans and Americans imagine that at some point the Iranians will not use their gentle persuasions on them, they are in for a sobering surprise. The Iranian regime's highest priority, apart from staying in power, is to "export the revolution." Europe and America will not be overlooked.
*Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a business strategist and advisor, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, and president of the International American Council on the Middle East. He has authored several books on Islam and US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
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Biden, Putin and Xi? A Good G-20 Turnout, But Not Enough
Clara Ferreira Marques/Bloomberg/August 20/2022
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has long put domestic concerns ahead of diplomacy. He’s now about to host one of the most significant geopolitical gatherings in years. On Thursday, he told Bloomberg News that Russia’s Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping plan to attend the Group of 20 summit. For the image-conscious Jokowi, as he is known, that counts as a win — the two leaders have hardly traveled since early 2020, and bringing together US president Joe Biden and the world’s two leading autocrats in Bali could help tackle compounding global security, energy and climate crises.
But the hard work ahead of November’s summit is only just beginning.
Indonesia, hosting the G-20 presidency for the first time this year, will no doubt have hoped for a status-enhancing mandate. It could not have turned out more differently. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to threaten Europe and put global food supplies at risk, and Moscow is still actively sowing divisions among emerging nations. Then there’s the rising tensions between the US and China over Taiwan and much else. The world is on edge.
For now, the global plan — and Indonesia’s — appears to be to keep the show on the road and the G-20 together. That’s important, given the deep differences that have opened up between mostly wealthy allied governments backing Ukraine and the Global South, and the scant opportunities for engagement. There is symbolism in coming together, and Indonesia has already circumvented the vexed question of Putin’s presence by inviting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who will likely join remotely, to attend. Bilateral conversations, like the potential head-to-head between Xi and Biden, can be consequential.
Whatever happens, though, simply avoiding the worst is a worryingly low bar.
There’s certainly no real prospect that the Russian war, the single biggest issue overshadowing the global agenda, will be resolved in Bali, even if plenty can happen between now and November. It’s also true that the G-20 needs to get through a crisis that threatens to definitively split its members between those aligned with international sanctions and efforts to isolate Russia over Ukraine, and the rest. But all involved can do better.
Indonesia, for one. Jokowi’s state of the nation address this week described a country that has reached “the pinnacle of global leadership,” which can act as a “bridge of peace” between Ukraine and Russia. He must follow through on these laudable diplomatic ambitions, and make far more of historic political and military ties to Russia and economic connections with Ukraine. Jokowi’s trip to Kyiv and Moscow earlier this summer was an important step — he was the first Asian leader to visit both since the conflict began — but where did it lead? Indonesia is a significant grain and fuel importer. Putin, apparently, made broad promises around security guarantees for food and fertilizer supplies. Why, then, after June’s shuttle diplomacy does Jakarta appear to have played no significant role in brokering a grain deal to facilitate Ukrainian exports? The US, for its part, can encourage Indonesia to act on its intentions, and really hold the middle ground. Indonesia was a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement during the Cold War. Today, that position should involve speaking up against a war that violates Jakarta’s foreign policy, and pointing out that Moscow talks up food security on the one hand and bombs grain silos with the other. It struck the port of Odesa a day after the grain deal was reached. Doing otherwise is to support the Kremlin’s narrative.
To have the credibility to make those demands, Washington must develop a far more proactive and holistic policy towards Indonesia, Southeast Asia and the emerging world in general. It is not enough to say, as Antony Blinken did last week in South Africa, that choices will not be dictated, meaning countries will not be made to choose sides between China and the US. An alternative, coherent vision is required — and not simply in opposition to Beijing.
Finally, there are areas where all G-20 nations can and should make progress, including climate, which is on the global agenda in November as the United Nations conference gathers in Egypt. Last year, the G-20 fell short. Drought is hurting industries and agriculture from Sichuan to Texas, and the global energy system is creaking. Talking up democracy is laudable, but there would be few better ways to demonstrate the commitment of the rich world to the rest than by finally paying up to ensure everyone can fight global warming, and adapt to it.

Iran Talks of a Changing Landscape in Which Tehran Plays an Active Role
Abdulrahman Al-Rashed/Al-Awsat/August 20/2022
Iran’s ILNA news agency quoted Major General Rahim Safavi, the top military adviser to the Supreme Leader, saying that his country’s forces were ready for a “hybrid” war. “The political, economic, cultural, and security landscape in West Asia is changing and evolving, and Iran must play an active role in this change,” he said. West Asia includes Arab countries in the Levant and extends to the shores of the Red Sea.
As Tehran inches closer to strengthening its nuclear capabilities, its hostile mentality escalates. In the last few weeks, Tehran has once again repeated that it is not planning on building a nuclear bomb but is rather content with achieving a state of readiness to produce one.
Willingness here means that Iran has enough enriched uranium, production equipment, and knowledge to make it an imminent nuclear power at any moment without getting entangled in the web of international sanctions. It also reduces the justifications of a potential Israeli attack feared by Tehran. It aligns with an earlier article I wrote about how the Iranian regime does not plan to stop but is instead intent on expanding and waging wars against our countries. Recent statements by Iranian officials further elucidate this bellicose mindset.
Speaking recently to a crowd of military leaders at an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps conference in Qom, Major General Safavi conveyed the regime’s directions, saying: “Comprehensive relations between Iran, Russia, China, and India can be developed within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to form an Asian or Eurasian power that creates a new perspective of a multipolar world.”
Of course, it is unlikely that the regime will be able to form such a significant bloc against the United States and its allies, given the difficulty of bringing India, Russia, and China, each having different objectives and interests, under the same umbrella. Yet Safavi’s explicit belligerent statements targeting West Asia do not come out of thin air.
Iran’s regime is on the verge of having a deterrent nuclear framework that will reinforce its confidence on the ground, given the protection it grants Tehran from any significant counterattack. Before this nuclear readiness, Iran had been content in past confrontations with using proxies, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, its militias in Iraq, and the Islamic Jihad in Gaza, to realize its aggressive projects without risking a direct war. In the West Asian system, the Tehran regime’s primary target will be Iraq, then the Gulf states. It indeed does not threaten other countries any less. King Abdullah II of Jordan warned last week of Iran’s threat, saying that Tehran’s increased influence in Iraq is putting it directly on his country’s borders. As for Israel, throughout Iran’s years of activity in Lebanon. The regime never aimed to attack Israel in Syria and Gaza because the Israeli nuclear arsenal could decimate Iran’s regime. It instead aimed to cripple Israel’s capabilities to prevent it from becoming a regional player against Tehran on the region’s battlefields and neutralize it in confrontations in Iraq, the Gulf and Syria. By “hybrid warfare,” Major General Safavi means, in addition to military force, the “economy, culture and new technologies,” all geared toward war efforts, not local development.

Türkiye and the German Dream
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al-Awsat/August 20/2022
It was almost exactly 20 years ago when Kemal Dervis told a group of reporters in Ankara that in “in 20 years”, Türkiye would be one of Europe’s two biggest economies alongside Federal Germany.
Shortly after that remark, however, Dervis’s brief tenure as Türkiye’s “economic miracle worker” in Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit’s government was over. Dervis was not to become Türkiye’s Ludwig Erhard, the man who shaped West-Germany’s postwar economic revival, and Ecevit himself soon took his own curtain call.
Yet, at the time Dervis’s prediction didn’t sound too outlandish.
The radical reforms started under Turgut Ozal were given a wider scope helping to curb runaway inflation and attracting the largest inflow of direct foreign investment in Turkish history. The corruption that had gangrened the state-dominated rentier economy was also brought under control while Dervis’s clever measures saved the banking system from collapse.
So, why is Türkiye today, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) just above half that of Spain, still in the lower league in Europe?
Today Türkiye is returning to the nightmarish inflation that it had sacrificed so much to control. The national currency, the lira, stabilized after long yoyo periods, is once again on a downward slope. For the third year running Türkiye’s foreign trade deficit is expanding at an unprecedented rate while unemployment is also rising at rates unknown since the 1990s.
To put it mildly, the Turkish economy is in dire straits; a fact that a walk in Istanbul streets reveals with shops having no or few customers, hotels that report fewer reservations, more and more people riding bicycles because they cannot afford to fill their cars with petrol, and crowds of job-seekers moving around parks and bazaars. The latest estimates from the Central Bank show that the average personal debt is above 110 percent of the annual income.
Some causes of the current crisis are conjectural. Türkiye depends on energy imports at a time when oil and gas prices are shooting up. Erhard’s economic miracle in Germany happened when oil was priced at $2.70, the equivalent of $32 in current terms. Today, Türkiye faces prices well above $100.
At the same time, Türkiye, unlike “emergent” economies like Brazil has few exportable natural resources. Still accounting for 25 percent of the GDP, Türkiye’s agriculture has been facing growing problems in European markets because of stiffer regulations and the chill in relations with Brussels. When it comes to exports of manufactured goods, the “dumping strategy” adopted under Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership, means that Turkish consumers pay a higher price than foreign buyers to cover the cost of state subsidies. That in turn adds to inflationary pressure.
Worse still, part of earnings from industrial exports is lodged in foreign banks at a time that the flow of foreign direct investment is getting thinner. With the global Covid crisis now in its third year, Türkiye has also lost a good part of its income from foreign tourism. In many places now most of the foreign tourists are low-spending Russians trying to get away from the impact of the Ukraine war.
In the past four years foreign investment, much of it from oil-rich Arab countries, Iran and Russia, has been directed at real estate projects that create bubbles like the ones that pushed Spain to the brink in the 1980s.
Interestingly, the Turkish diaspora, estimated to be around 12 million, is cutting back remittances and investing less in the old homeland. The grim economic prospect has encouraged emigration, especially by better-educated and more skilled workers needed for new technology-based industries. This compounds the problems created by the fall in national research and development budgets to just above 1 percent of the GDP compared to almost 4 percent in Federal Germany when Erhard (The Fat One) was in charge of the economy.
However, the current crisis may also have deeper political reasons. In his wanton quest for faux-grandeur, President Erdogan has embarked on an adventurous and costly foreign policy. He has wasted a lot of money trying to get a seat at the top table in Libya with zilch for result.
Another costly chimera got Türkiye involved in the Transcaucasian conflict, again with no benefit to the Turkish economy. Despite Ankara’s massive support in the war against Armenia, Azerbaijan (Baku) isn’t even ready to sell oil to Türkiye with the same discount that Russia and Iran offer.
Instead of negotiating a fair share of newly found oil and gas reserves in the Aegean Sea with Greece, Erdogan has opted for pseudo-nationalistic saber-rattling that drives away would-be investors.
Erdogan has also got Türkiye involved in glory-chasing but costly gesticulations in Kosovo, Northern Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Albania, not forgetting the decades-long involvement in Northern Cyprus which has proved to be an increasingly costly but growingly ugly mistress for the pashas. Another ugly but expensive mistress is the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan al-Moslemeen).
Erdogan brought it under Turkish thumb at the cost of damaging ties with Doha and by bribing the Egyptian and Tunisian leftovers of the “Brotherhood” leadership.
Taking over the “Brotherhood” was supposed to complete Erdogan’s victory over the Fethullah Gulen’s movement, leaving “ the Sultan” as the unchallenged aspirant for the leadership of politicized Islam in and around the Mediterranean.
But that is not all. Erdogan has expanded the war that Türkiye has waged against Kurds for almost half a century to parts of Iraq and Syria. For the past five years, he has been trying to carve out a Turkish glacis in northern Syria’s largely Kurdish region. Turkish experts believe that the adventure is costing around $10 billion a year, almost twice what Ankara gets from Brussels to keep Syrian refugees away from the EU dreamland.
Erdogan’s obsession with getting chunks of Syria and Iraq has prevented Türkiye from playing a constructive role in stabilizing its two neighbors one way or another. Meanwhile, corruption at all levels is returning with a vengeance reminding many Turks of the late 1990s when Ankara was dubbed a den of thieves.
Erdogan apologists claim that he has put himself “at the center” of the new geostrategic “big game”. Türkiye, they say, remains a member of NATO but also a respected interlocutor for Russia. It can talk to the mullahs in Tehran and the mandarins in Beijing. Erdogan can also sell drones to Russians and Ukrainians to kill each other.
Well, maybe. But anyone who tries to sit between two, not to say several, chairs risks ending up between chairs right on the floor.

Time for the US to show Khamenei how wrong he is
Rabbi Abraham Cooper/Rev. Johnnie Moore/Arab News/August 20/2022
The term “paper tiger” derives from an old Chinese idiom and means a “blustering, harmless fellow.” It first gained global notoriety in 1956, when Chairman Mao Zedong labeled the US a paper tiger.
Fast forward to 2022 and it is not (yet) Xi Jinping dubbing the US a paper tiger, it is Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is treating America with the utter contempt one would reserve for a toothless, harmless fellow.
At the core is the spectacle of the US’ desperation to reach a near-useless nuclear deal at 10 past midnight: Iran is already at the nuclear threshold and its satellite and ballistic missile programs continue unimpeded.
At the helm of this diplomatic fiasco is the same person who negotiated the first nuclear deal for President Barack Obama: Rob Malley. One Iranian expert put the whole thing quite elegantly into a simple tweet: “Rob Malley is like an American tourist entering the Tehran Bazaar with pockets stuffed with banknotes, shouting, ‘I’ll not leave here without a carpet!’”
Malley believes he is delivering the long-coveted compromise that will make the world a safer place. But for Tehran, compromise equals weakness. The regime has expanded its goals: Not only does the regime seek more billions in sanctions relief, but to humiliate the “Great Satan” in the homes and on the streets of the US.This month, the US government indicted the Iranian mastermind of a series of assassination plots against a who’s who of former senior government officials, including Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, Brian Hook and Mark Esper. The indictment detailed that the would-be assassin literally stalked Bolton in the nation’s capital. Just before this news, authorities arrested an armed suspect outside the Brooklyn, New York, residence of Iranian activist Masih Alinejad. That suspect was surveilling Alinejad’s home, not unlike the surveillance described in the Bolton indictment. The would-be killer was caught with an AK-47 just outside her door. Earlier this year, another team of terrorists was plotting to kidnap Alinejad, take her to a boat and send her to Venezuela before transferring her to Iran. What is Alinejad’s crime? She has dared to protest Iran’s mandatory hijabs for women.
Power — and the willingness to deploy it — is the only language that this nefarious Iranian regime understands
Then, there was last week’s heinous attack perpetrated by a New Jersey man, who nearly killed renowned author and freedom of speech icon Salman Rushdie. Rushdie will likely lose an eye, but his 20/20 vision of the threat of violent Islamists remains intact. Days before the brutal attack, Iranian state media reissued its call to kill Rushdie. The $3.3 million bounty placed on Rushdie’s head by the ayatollah himself is funded by a subsidiary of a foundation called the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order. That same foundation would reportedly have received sanctions relief had Iran agreed to the latest absurd offer made on behalf of the US via European interlocutors as a bribe for Iran to reenter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Is there evidence linking these shocking developments?
Bolton, who tops the Iranian hit list, noted this week that “nearly four months passed between (Secretary of State Antony) Blinken’s public corroboration of Iran’s threat and the filing of criminal charges. The only reasonable explanation is that the president feared revealing the accusations would imperil his all-consuming goal of reviving the Iran nuclear deal.”
Bolton is right. Instead of plying Iran with diplomatic niceties at five-star hotels in Vienna, the US should be using every tool in its arsenal to deliver a clear message to the mullahs: Stop destabilizing the world.
In fact, we should not even be in Vienna while Iranian drone technology is being transferred to Moscow to aid its invasion of Ukraine or while Beijing’s oil purchases from Iran supersede totals prior to the (unenforced) sanctions. There should be no deal in Vienna while Iran builds its terrorist infrastructure in South America — as evidenced by the US Justice Department’s efforts to seize a grounded Boeing 747 affiliated with Iran’s IRGC and while Colombia’s new government holds widely publicized meetings with Iranian officials. Why make a deal in Vienna when the US Congress has to continue to appropriate funds to assist Morocco with air defense systems to protect itself from the Iranian-aligned Polisario Front or as long as the Saudis continue to be threatened by Houthi drone strikes?
And there should be no deal in Vienna with an Iran that denies the Holocaust, threatens the annihilation of Israel, promotes global antisemitism and continues to arm and fund Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist lackeys.
If you are looking for help from the Europeans, forget it. Last year, the US State Department released a list of 360 Iranian dissidents killed in Europe by Iranian operatives. European governments, ever mindful of lucrative Iranian markets, have done next to nothing to stop the carnage.
It is up to the US alone to reestablish its dormant deterrence. Power — and the willingness to deploy it — is the only language that this nefarious regime understands. Without it, God forbid, we can expect more brazen attacks against the world’s superpower, which the ayatollah has come to believe is little more than a toothless paper tiger.
• Rabbi Abraham Cooper is the associate dean and director of the Global Social Action Agenda at the Simon Wiesenthal Center.
• Rev. Johnnie Moore is president of the Congress of Christian Leaders and founder of the KAIROS Company.