English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For August 18/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.august18.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
But know this, that if the master of
the house had known in what hour the thief was coming, he would have watched,
and not allowed his house to be broken into. Therefore be ready also, for the
Son of Man is coming in an hour that you don’t expect him.”
Luke 12/32-48: Don’t be afraid, little flock, for
it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the Kingdom. Sell that which you
have, and give gifts to the needy. Make for yourselves purses which don’t grow
old, a treasure in the heavens that doesn’t fail, where no thief approaches,
neither moth destroys. For where your treasure is, there will your heart be
also. “Let your waist be dressed and your lamps burning. Be like men watching
for their lord, when he returns from the marriage feast; that, when he comes and
knocks, they may immediately open to him. Blessed are those servants, whom the
lord will find watching when he comes. Most certainly I tell you, that he will
dress himself, and make them recline, and will come and serve them. They will be
blessed if he comes in the second or third watch, and finds them so. But know
this, that if the master of the house had known in what hour the thief was
coming, he would have watched, and not allowed his house to be broken into.
Therefore be ready also, for the Son of Man is coming in an hour that you don’t
expect him.” Peter said to him, “Lord, are you telling this parable to us, or to
everybody?” The Lord said, “Who then is the faithful and wise steward, whom his
lord will set over his household, to give them their portion of food at the
right times? Blessed is that servant whom his lord will find doing so when he
comes. Truly I tell you, that he will set him over all that he has. But if that
servant says in his heart, ‘My lord delays his coming,’ and begins to beat the
menservants and the maidservants, and to eat and drink, and to be drunken, 46
then the lord of that servant will come in a day when he isn’t expecting him,
and in an hour that he doesn’t know, and will cut him in two, and place his
portion with the unfaithful. That servant, who knew his lord’s will, and didn’t
prepare, nor do what he wanted, will be beaten with many stripes, but he who
didn’t know, and did things worthy of stripes, will be beaten with few stripes.
To whomever much is given, of him will much be required; and to whom much was
entrusted, of him more will be asked.“
Titels
For English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News
& Editorials published on August 17-18/2022
Full Support To Amer Fkhoury's Family/Elias Bejjani/August 16/2022
Family to proceed with suit alleging man tortured in Lebanon
Video/Text Report/Click Here/Lawsuit against Iran filed by family of New
Hampshire man-Amer Fakhoury, can go forward
Aoun calls on judiciary to confront 'Salameh and partners'
Report: Hochstein to visit Israel soon, agreed with PM on 'positive framework'
Aoun, Mikati meet over govt. line-up, ending month-long deadlock
Aoun says keeping Syrians in Lebanon would be a 'crime'
Geagea rejects presidential 'settlement' with Hezbollah-led camp
Geagea accuses Hezbollah, FPM of pressuring Constitutional Council
FPM denies Bassil has asked to meet Geagea
Yacoubian, Noon urge MPs to vote for laws to resume blast probe
Sami Gemayel says opposition meeting over president, vows 'new approach' with
Hezbollah
Lebanese woman set on fire by husband in row over unwanted pregnancy dies in
hospital
Lebanon is not resilient, it is traumatized/Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/August
17/2022
Titles For LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on August 17-18/2022
Pope Tawadros Calls for Moving or Expanding ‘Crowded’ Egyptian Churches
after Abu Sifin Fire
Syria Denies It Is Holding American Journalist Austin Tice
Leaders of Ukraine, Turkey and UN to meet Thursday in Lviv
Tehran Ready to Swap Prisoners, Urges US to Free Jailed Iranians
Egypt says central bank governor resigns amid economic woes
Iraqi Leaders, Bar Sadr, Agree to Work on Political Roadmap
Sadr takes a step back, cancels ‘mass demonstration’ in bid to de-escalate
US Mediates between Libya’s Parliament, High Council of State
Syria denies it is holding American journalist Austin Tice
Damascus Announces Establishing Syrian-Iraqi Business Council
Ukraine war: Insolence of Russian troops in Kherson appears to confirm officers
have fled, source says
'How can anyone live that way?': Ukrainians flee grim life in Russian-occupied
Kherson
Titles For The
Latest LCCC English analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on August 17-18/2022
Biden Exploits Muslim Murders to Play Identity Politics/Raymond Ibrahim/August
17/2022
Islamic State conducts second major prison break in Congo/CALEB WEISS & RYAN
O'FARRELL/FDD's Long War Journal /August 17/ 2022
Reporters in Gaza have never been free/Clifford D. May/Washington Times, August
17/ 2022
How Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan Gambit Backfired/Craig Singleton/Foreign Policy/August
17/2022
China Is Winning the Economic Race with the US – The Consequences Will Be
Profound/Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/August 17/2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published
on August 17-18/2022
Full Support To Amer Fkhoury's Family
Elias Bejjani/August 16/2022
May Almighty God Bless, Amer Fakhoury's soul, help His devoted,
loving and courageous Family to bring justice to all that concerns his case, and
put those who were behind his arrest, torture and death on trial to be
accountable for their horrible crimes. Full support to Fakhoury Family
Amer Fakhoury Foundation/U.S. Judge: Director of
Lebanese General Security’s Request is Rejected, Case Moves Forward
Amer Fakhoury Foundation/August 16/2022
https://eliasbejjaninews.com/archives/111299/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%82%d8%b6%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%a3%d9%85%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%83%d9%8a-%d9%8a%d8%b1%d9%81%d8%b6-%d8%b7%d9%84%d8%a8-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d9%88%d8%a7%d8%a1-%d8%b9%d8%a8%d8%a7%d8%b3-%d8%a5/
Press Release
Request by The Director of the Lebanese General Security, General Abbas Ibrahim,
for his name to be removed from the Fakhoury vs. Iran Lawsuit was denied by a
U.S. District Court Judge
Washington, DC – The Family of Amer Fakhoury moves forward with Lawsuit against
Iran over Amer Fakhoury’s jailing and death, despite unsuccessful protest from
the Director of the Lebanese General Security, General Abbas Ibrahim.
After the family’s lawsuit against Iran was filed and became part of the public
record General Abbas Ibrahim filed a motion to remove his name from the
complaint and the name of the facility in Lebanon where Amer Fakhoury was
tortured. His argument was that this ruins his reputation in the United States.
Fortunately for the Fakhoury Family, the judge denied General Abbas’s motion to
intervene and strike his name from the complaints.
“We are pleased that the complaint against the perpetrators will proceed as it
was filed,” said Zoya Fakhoury. “Through this process we will have the
opporunity to bring some justice to for Amer’s brutal torture by Lebanese
officials and agents of Iran that resulted in his death,” added Macy Fakhoury.
The facts presented in the complaint explain how the late US hostage was
tortured in the Lebanese General Security directed by General Abbas Ibrahim and
how he was forced to sign false documents that were later used to illegally
detain him for 7 months. The torture he received in the Lebanese General
Security, and the maltreatment that followed in the military prison led to the
death of Amer Fakhoury few months after he was released.
Attorney Robert Tolchin stated: “We are very encouraged that the Court dismissed
the Lebanese intelligence agency, the GDGS’ motion to intervene and strike our
complaint. The judge correctly found that our allegations of the GDGS’s
connections to Iran and Hezbollah go to the very heart of our factual case and
must be allowed to be adjudicated. Abbas Ibrahim tried very hard to conceal his
agency’s involvement and squelch our case but the court wasn’t having it. We
fully understand how concerned Lebanon must be that this civil proceeding will
reveal the role it’s officials played in the illegal arrest and torture of
American citizen Amer Farkhoury in Beirut. And we are determined to pursue
Justice and expose all the crimes that the Iranians and the GDGS engaged in.”
As Amer Fakhoury’s second year memorial is approaching, this is a big win and a
big step towards accountability.
Video/Text Report/Click Here/Lawsuit
against Iran filed by family of New Hampshire man-Amer Fakhoury, can go forward
Grace Finerman/WMUR NEWS 9/News
Anchor/Reporter/ August 16/2022
MANCHESTER, N.H. —
https://www.wmur.com/amp/article/lebanon-amer-fakhoury-death-lawsuit/40907872
A lawsuit against Iran filed by the family of a New Hampshire man who died
shortly after being released from Lebanese custody will continue.
Amer Fakhoury died in the United States in August 2020 of Stage 4 lymphoma. Last
year, his family filed a lawsuit in Washington against Iran, claiming he
developed the illness and other medical issues while imprisoned during a visit
to Lebanon.
The family claims Lebanon was operating at the behest of Iran.
Fakhoury was detained in Lebanon in 2019 after going back to the country decades
after he had originally left. The government in Lebanon took him into custody,
claiming he had been involved in murder and torture years before, which he
denied.
He was eventually released by the Lebanese Supreme Court and returned to the
United States, but he died several months later.
His family sued Iran, saying they controlled the situation in Lebanon.
This week, a judge ruled that the case will continue against Iran and denied
Lebanon's request to remove a Lebanese general and the country's name from the
lawsuit.
The Fakhoury family said the ruling is a win because of the way the overall case
is developing.
"The judge denied the (General Directorate of) General Security and Gen. Abbas
Ibrahim motion to remove Lebanon and their name from the lawsuit because these
are facts," said Gulia Fahoury, Amer Fakhoury's daughter. "My father was
tortured in Lebanon …, and we're happy to say the judge took the right decision,
and now the case is moving forward."
The family has created a foundation focused on accountability and financially
helping families of illegally detained people or hostages..
Aoun calls on judiciary to confront 'Salameh and partners'
Naharnet/August 17/2022
President Michel Aoun on Tuesday called on the judiciary to confront “anyone
restraining its justice, at the central bank as well as in the Beirut port blast
case.”
In a statement addressed to the judicial authority, the president reminded that
on June 9, the relevant judicial authorities “charged Central Bank Governor Riad
Toufic Salameh and his partners with dangerous financial crimes, specifically
the crimes of embezzlement, falsification, the use of forged documents, money
laundering, illicit enrichment and tax evasion.”“Ever since, the concerned
judges have shared responsibility evasion without filing a lawsuit according to
legal norms, which pushes me, from my position and role as the head of the state
and under my constitutional oath, to call on the judiciary to fully liberate
itself from any inducement or intimidation,” Aoun added. “I call on the
judiciary to confront anyone restraining its justice at the central bank as well
as in the Beirut port blast case,” he went on to say. Addressing judges, the
president added: “Rise up for your dignity and authority and do not fear those
who have influence.”
Report: Hochstein to visit Israel soon, agreed with PM
on 'positive framework'
Naharne/August 17/2022t
U.S. mediator Amos Hochstein has told the Lebanese parties that all the reports
about a "negative atmosphere" regarding the demarcation negotiations are coming
from Lebanon's side. Al-Akhbar newspaper said Wednesday that Hochstein has
denied the reports, saying that he and Israel have nothing to do with them.The
daily quoted Hochstein as saying that he will visit Israel in the coming days
and that he had agreed with the Israeli prime minister on "a positive
framework.""Officials in Israel were preoccupied with the war on Gaza when I
visited Tel Aviv and the mini-ministerial meeting did not discuss the border
demarcation," Hochstein reportedly said. Meanwhile, al-Joumhouria newspaper
reported that reaching an agreement soon is highly probable. It added that
Washington and Tel Aviv are taking Hezbollah's threats very seriously.
Aoun, Mikati meet over govt. line-up, ending month-long
deadlock
Naharnet/August 17/2022
After more than a month of stalemating the Cabinet formation negotiations, Prime
Minister-designate Najib Mikati and President Michel Aoun met Wednesday in
Baabda. Mikati and Aoun discussed a Cabinet line-up that the PM had submitted in
late June. "There will be another round of talks," Mikati said after the
meeting. A war of statements had erupted between Aoun and Mikati, since the
latter handed the President a line-up that was leaked to the press on the same
day and that was not convenient to the Free Patriotic Movement who had not named
Mikati as a PM. Christian FPM Energy Minister Walid Fayyad was replaced by a
Sunni candidate. Mikati accused the Presidency of leaking the line-up and
accused the FPM of obstructing the electricity reforms, while the FPM accused
him of corruption and of obstructing the government formation. It said that
Cabinet is responsible for the energy crisis, and not the FPM.
Aoun says keeping Syrians in Lebanon would be a 'crime'
Naharnet/August 17/2022
President Michel Aoun warned Wednesday that “the effort of some countries to
integrate the displaced Syrians present in Lebanon into the Lebanese society is
a crime that Lebanon will not accept no matter what happens.”Aoun voiced his
remarks in a Baabda meeting with Canadian International Development Minister
Harjit S. Sajjan. “Lebanon is preparing a legal study that will be submitted to
the U.N. about the issue of Syrian displacement, and we hope the friendly
countries will support us, especially that the current situations in Syria allow
for securing the return of the displaced to their country,” the president added.
“Lebanon can no longer bear the economic, social, health and security burdens
resulting from the presence of around 1.5 million displaced Syrians on its
soil,” Aoun went on to say.
Geagea rejects presidential 'settlement' with Hezbollah-led
camp
Naharnet/August 17/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea stressed Wednesday that “an understanding or
a settlement with the Axis of Defiance over the presidential file is rejected,
because it will certainly lead to prolonging the crises that the country is
suffering from.”
“The concerns and interests of Hezbollah contradict with the interests of
Lebanon the state and the country,” Geagea added, in a meeting in Maarab with
Swedish Ambassador to Lebanon Ann Dismorr. “As for the LF, there are two paths
that can be taken: the first is the easiest and faster, which would be a
settlement with Hezbollah’s camp, while the second path, which is the more
correct one, would be a no settlement,” the LF leader went on to say.
Geagea accuses Hezbollah, FPM of pressuring Constitutional
Council
Naharnet/August 17/2022
Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea said Wednesday that Hezbollah and the Free
Patriotic Movement are exerting pressure on the Constitutional Council in order
to transfer four seats from the opposition to the March 8 Alliance.
"They are trying to manipulate the parliamentary appeals in different regions
especially in Tripoli and Marjayoun," Geagea said in a tweet. He added that
their aim is to change the balance of power in Parliament before the
presidential elections.
FPM denies Bassil has asked to meet Geagea
Naharnet/August 17/2022
The Free Patriotic Movement on Wednesday denied that FPM chief Jebran Bassil has
asked to meet with Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea over the presidential
file. “Whenever the FPM chief is asked about his readiness to meet with those
with whom he has political differences, he answers that he is ready to meet with
anyone for the sake of the public interest,” the FPM’s central media committee
said in a statement. “This is a point of strength and impartiality, and when he
wants to request any meeting, he will not shy away from doing so without
equivocation,” the statement added.
Lebanese Forces MP Antoine Zahra had claimed Tuesday that Bassil had asked to
meet with Geagea. "I think that Bassil has equivocally asked to meet with Geagea
over the presidential file, and the latter has refused," Zahra said.
Yacoubian, Noon urge MPs to vote for laws to resume blast
probe
Naharnet/August 17/2022
MP Paula Yacoubian called Wednesdays the MPs to vote on draft laws that would
resume the Beirut port blast probe and prevent future obstructions. In a press
conference at the Parliament, Yacoubian said she had contacted the parliamentary
blocs, except for Amal and Hezbollah, as she said that the Shiite Duo's position
is clear concerning the probe. Yacoubian asked William Noon, whose firefighter
brother died in the blast, to join her behind the mike. Noon said that the
Kataeb and the Lebanese Forces parties had told him that they would vote for the
draft laws. He urged the MPs to take their decision based on a humanitarian
approach instead of a political one. "The Progressive Socialist Party, the LF
and the Free Patriotic Movement said their MPs would vote for the draft laws,"
Yacoubian said, adding that when it's time to vote, the Lebanese will know who
is really supporting the probe and who is not.
Sami Gemayel says opposition meeting over president, vows
'new approach' with Hezbollah
Naharnet/August 17/2022
Kataeb Party chief MP Sami Gemayel said Wednesday that the opposition forces are
forming a coordination framework in order to reach a common agreement on a
candidate for Presidency. "We are communicating with the Lebanese Forces, the
Progressive Socialist Party and other new MPs in order to agree on a President
who is able to rescue Lebanon," Gemayel said. He went on to ask Hezbollah if it
will continue with its policies of taking over Lebanon, threatening that the
opposition would have to change its traditional approach in case Hezbollah will
continue to "take Lebanon hostage."
Lebanese woman set on fire by husband in row over
unwanted pregnancy dies in hospital
Bassam Zaazaa/Arab News/August 17/2022
DUBAI: A pregnant Lebanese woman who was badly beaten and set on fire by her
husband because she would not have an abortion died in hospital on Wednesday.
Hana Mohammed Khodor, 21, lost her fight for life at Al-Salam Hospital in
northern Lebanon where she had been for the past 11 days.
A doctor from the hospital said on Tuesday that Khodor was admitted on Aug. 6
and had been receiving treatment for burns to her entire body. He added that her
unborn child died in the womb and had to be surgically removed, and described
Khodor’s chances of survival as “very bleak.”
A family friend, Abdul Rahman Haddad, told Arab News that Khodor died on
Wednesday. A hospital official confirmed the news and said her body had already
been claimed by her family. According to local media reports, Khodor’s husband,
identified only by the initials A. A., beat his wife because she refused to
abort their unborn child. He was reported to have said the couple — who came
from a poor background in the northern city of Tripoli — could not afford to
raise it. Speaking to Al-Jadeed TV on Tuesday, Khodor’s aunt said: “When she
refused to abort the baby, he took her home and set her on fire using the gas
cylinder.” Haddad said A. A. had been arrested by Lebanese Internal Security
Forces as he was planning to flee the country. Prior to her death, Khodor’s
family made several appeals for financial support to help pay for her hospital
treatment, which included multiple operations and blood transfusions
Lebanon is not resilient, it is traumatized
Nadim Shehadi/Arab News/August 17/2022
How does a whole society become submissive, overtaken by apathy and unable to
react or protest, while exhibiting signs of confusion, defeatism and
incoherence? Lebanon is not a resilient country, as is often claimed. Rather, it
is deeply traumatized by the events of the last two decades and has lost the
will to resist or the ability to revolt.
It is no longer satisfactory to blame the crisis on the entire political class,
the corrupt elite or the banking system. They may be the victims too. Our minds
become captive to certain slogans that are repeated robotically until they lose
their meaning. No country or society can survive the constant bullying that
Lebanon has been subjected to by Hezbollah.
Years of systematic violence and paralysis have taken their toll; society is
broken and so is the political system, the economy, the banking system and all
the services and institutions that allow a country or a society to function.
This is due to the assassinations and constant state of war, with Hezbollah
holding the country hostage, paralyzing all institutions until they submit. And
then there is the nuclear-scale explosion that destroyed large parts of Beirut
in 2020 and the brutal Israeli attack of 2006.
One is mystified to find the right words to describe the phenomenon. It has
similarities with the way a drug cartel, a criminal organization or a
revolutionary movement gets hold of a population. Totalitarian states can
exercise similar control — their grip over society is the result of long-term
suppression and indoctrination. Individuals in a long-term, toxic and abusive
relationship exhibit similar symptoms.
Some theories in social and political psychology may help, but this is not the
place to explore them, nor am I the right person to do so. What follows are some
anecdotes and concepts gathered informally from friends that could help
illustrate the problem.
My first story is from a Brazilian journalist who was covering the Sandinista
revolution in Nicaragua in 1979. He found the junta frantic that a
counter-revolution was inevitable — all textbooks said so. Advice came from
allies behind the so-called Iron Curtain: To preempt a counter-revolution, you
should start your own. This would trigger reactions; society would expose itself
and the spectrum of opinions would then be mapped with a plan to neutralize the
opposition. The tools are there too: Some would be accused of treason or
corruption, others would be framed, bribed, blackmailed, jailed, exiled or
assassinated. These instruments of control, together with capturing the moral
high ground of the revolution, would eventually result in a submissive society.
When a criminal organization takes over, it uses similar tools. A drug cartel in
Latin America creates its own enabling environment by taming politicians, the
police, the judiciary and the army. Its members terrorize the rest of the
population, who also become dependent on them. Their tight grip on society is
reinforced by the fact that the population cannot trust the authorities because
they can never be sure they are not working for the cartel. Cartel heads become
heroes to their victims because they protect them from the corrupt authorities
they themselves corrupted.
The same control happens in long-term abusive relationships. Victims are broken
and trapped, unable to stand up to their tormentors. The victim’s
self-confidence is eroded and a combination of physical and psychological
manipulation leaves them blaming themselves, feeling inadequate and guilty, and
forgetting what healthy alternatives exist. Psychologists call this
“gaslighting” after the 1944 film “Gaslight” starring Ingrid Bergman.
Political psychologists have come up with an explanation for submissive
behavior, in that people do not like uncertainty and would rather adapt to a
gradually worsening situation than risk a jump into the unknown.
One can observe many of these elements in Lebanon. Since the assassination of
former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005, the country has been battered into
submission. The Cedar Revolution that brought more than a million people onto
the streets demanding the truth and the withdrawal of Syrian troops has fizzled
out. When the truth was delivered by the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, which
accused Hezbollah, it was ignored out of fear. It was like a prisoner having his
cell door opened but refusing to escape.
Hezbollah is a combination of all the examples given above. As an extension of
the Iranian revolution, it is partly Sandinista, partly a totalitarian regime,
partly a drug cartel with global connections and partly a guerilla force calling
itself the resistance against an occupation.
Hezbollah is also that partner in an abusive relationship, with the victim
unable to break away. The total grip that Hezbollah has over its own community
makes partnering with it indispensable in a country built on partnership and
coexistence. After the Syrian withdrawal in 2005, reconstituting the country led
to a series of compromises.
In speech after speech, Hassan Nasrallah wags his finger, capturing the moral
high ground and threateningly accusing any critics of treason or of being agents
of foreign embassies. He maintains the state of war by threatening Israel four
to five times a year, thus sustaining a state of mobilization.
Another interesting symptom can be observed in the period during and after the
revolution of 2018. From Day 1, Hezbollah declared itself to be against the
movement and accused it of being driven by foreign, particularly American,
interests. It also sent its thugs to the streets to beat up the protesters. Yet
the revolutionaries rarely mentioned Hezbollah by name, instead using euphemisms
like “the powers” (sulta) or the slogan of “all means all” against the whole
political class.
In May’s elections, a group of 13 independents won seats as “Change” MPs and
this was hailed as a defeat of the “sulta,” breaking the monopoly of the
traditional parties. On the one hand, these MPs wanted justice for the Beirut
Port explosion, the investigation of which was openly blocked by Hezbollah. On
the other hand, they totally ignored the verdicts of the Special Tribunal for
Lebanon, which proved beyond any reasonable doubt the involvement of a Hezbollah
hit squad in many assassinations.
Where the trauma is most obvious, it is in the circles of former Prime Minister
Saad Hariri, the head of the Future Movement founded by his father. The victims
of assassinations included his advisers, members of his parliamentary bloc,
allies, participants in the international tribunal’s investigation and his
friend and adviser Mohammed Chatah, who held the whole group together and was
its main strategist.
No country or society can survive the constant bullying that Lebanon has been
subjected to by Hezbollah.
The Future Movement was the main target of the paralysis and its institutions
the main target of the attack on Beirut by Hezbollah’s black shirts in 2008. The
reforms that were blocked were mainly associated with the movement’s political
program. In January 2011, Hariri was ousted as prime minister when Hezbollah
reportedly threatened Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, forcing him and his
parliamentary group to change sides.
For 29 months, the country remained without elections, without a president and
without a government, with parliamentary sessions postponed dozens of times
until Hariri accepted the compromise to elect Hezbollah’s candidate for the
presidency, Michel Aoun. He is mostly blamed for that move and advisers blame
themselves for going along with it.
The second anniversary of the Beirut Port explosion passed this month, but what
was expected to be a mass protest full of rage was more like a whimper and the
low turnout was only made notable by the spectacular collapse of one of the
damaged grain silos. The investigation is still blocked, so is the formation of
a government, and the paralysis of the last three years has cost the country as
much as the paralysis of the last 20. Lebanon is a broken country, traumatized
by a feeling of utter failure and battered into submission by a combination of a
revolutionary movement and a criminal drug cartel.
*Nadim Shehadi is a Lebanese economist. Twitter: @Confusezeus
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not
necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published
on August 17-18/2022
Pope Tawadros Calls for Moving or Expanding ‘Crowded’ Egyptian Churches
after Abu Sifin Fire
Cairo - Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Egypt's Coptic Pope Tawadros II of Alexandria joined government calls to move
churches in overcrowded areas to “wider places,” days after a major fire
engulfed a church in the Giza governorate, killing dozens. “There are small
prayer places compared to the number of Copts in the area, and the church that
witnessed the fire did not exceed an area of 120 meters,” Pope Tawadros told a
local Egyptian channel over the phone. “I ask responsible agencies to pay
attention to the matter, either by expanding or moving to a wider place,” he
added. On Sunday, Social Solidarity Minister Nevin el Qabbaj controversially
called for replacing churches in densely populated places in the North African
nation. She told Al Arabiya television that the state is in the process of
reviewing the conditions of old churches, and the matter is not related to
legalization only, but also extends to closing churches and replacing them with
new ones.
Egypt is still grieving the church tragedy. On Sunday morning a fire broke out
at a packed church, killing 41 people, the majority of whom were children, and
leaving many others injured. The blaze started just before 9 a.m. in the Abu
Sifin church where about up to 1,000 people had gathered. “A field assessment of
the conditions of churches is being carried out with great sensitivity,” Qabbaj
told Al Arabiya. For his part, Tawadros praised “the efforts of state agencies
and the solidarity and condolences of the officials.”He spoke about the church's
efforts to support the victims of the fire. He confirmed the formation of a
committee of clergy to visit the injured, including a Muslim man who
participated in the rescue efforts.
Syria Denies It Is Holding American Journalist Austin Tice
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Syria denied on Wednesday it is holding US journalist Austin Tice or other
Americans after President Joe Biden accused the Syrian government of detaining
him. The Syrian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Damascus “denies it
had kidnapped or is holding any American citizen on its territories.”
Biden’s comments last week came in a statement released by the White House to
mark the 10th anniversary of Tice’s abduction, which took place when he was in
Syria covering its lengthy conflict. Biden's remarks were the clearest
indication so far that the US is certain Tice is being held by the government of
President Bashar Assad. Tice went missing shortly after his 31st birthday on
Aug. 14, 2012 at a checkpoint in a contested area west of the capital Damascus.
A video released a month later showed him blindfolded and held by armed men,
saying “Oh, Jesus.” He has not been heard from since.
Jerusalem Post: Kushner's Promise to UAE Confused Israeli
Plans to Annex Parts of West Bank
Tel Aviv - Nazir Magally/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
New reports in Tel Aviv, including a secret letter sent by former US President
Donald Trump to then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, revealed that
everything was ready in Washington to authorize the annexation of about a third
of Palestinian land in the West Bank to Israel. The third of Palestinian
territory that were up for annexation included the Jordan Valley and northern
Dead Sea areas and Jewish settlements in the West Bank. In exchange for the
annexation, Israel would agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state in
the remaining two thirds of the West Bank, revealed the Jerusalem Post in a
report. The deal was supported by the entire Trump administration. This resulted
in Trump sending a letter confirming his approval and Netanyahu traveled to
Washington for a final agreement. Two Jewish settlement leaders traveled with
Netanyahu. One of the leaders backed the then-prime minister’s direction, but
the other leader considered the deal a wrong decision because it would grant
sovereignty to a Palestinian state. But Trump's son-in-law and former senior
adviser Jared Kushner was planning for Israel a strategic gift, which was to
establish normal and peaceful relations with new Arab countries. It was later
discovered that the United Arab Emirates demanded the annulment of annexation to
join the normalization plans with Israel. So Kushner delayed giving approval for
the annexation, at first on the pretext of the coronavirus pandemic, and in the
end revealed the truth of his agreement with the UAE to cancel the takeover. In
a three-page letter dated January 26, 2020, two days before Trump presented his
Vision for Peace in the White House, the president summarized some of its
details, reported the Post in its exclusive report.
The details included that Israel would be able to extend sovereignty to parts of
the West Bank, as delineated in the map included in the plan if Netanyahu agreed
to a Palestinian state in the remaining territory on that map. Trump asked
Netanyahu to adopt "the policies outlined in... the Vision [for peace] regarding
those territories of the West Bank identified as becoming part of a future
Palestinian state." "In exchange for Israel implementing these policies," the US
president continued, "and formally adopting detailed territorial plans not
inconsistent with the Conceptual Map attached to my Vision – the United States
will recognize Israeli sovereignty in those areas of the West Bank that my
vision contemplates as being part of Israel." The letter did not delineate a
timeline for sovereignty recognition. Netanyahu’s response was that Israel would
move forward with sovereignty plans “in the coming days,” according to his
spokesman, who did not provide the letter. The letter calls into question the
narrative set out in "Breaking History: A White House Memoir", a new book by
Kushner. In it, Kushner asserts that former US ambassador to Israel David
Friedman went behind his and the president’s back and "assured Netanyahu that he
would get the White House to support annexation more immediately." "He had not
conveyed this to me or anyone on my team," Kushner said. Friedman and Netanyahu
viewed the matter differently. Netanyahu’s spokesman said: "The charge that
prime minister Netanyahu surprised the president and his staff with an
uncoordinated announcement... is utterly baseless."
Israel says will restore full diplomatic ties with
Turkey
Agence France Presse/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid said Wednesday his government will restore
full diplomatic ties with Turkey, following years of strained relations between
the Mediterranean nations. "It was decided to once again upgrade the level of
the relations between the two countries to that of full diplomatic ties and to
return ambassadors and consuls general from the two countries," said a statement
from Lapid's office. The prime minister hailed the diplomatic breakthrough as an
"important asset for regional stability and very important economic news for the
citizens of Israel". The announcement follows months of bilateral efforts to
mend ties which began to fray in 2008, following an Israeli military operation
in Gaza. Relations then froze after the deaths of 10 civilians following an
Israeli raid on the Turkish Mavi Marmara ship, part of a flotilla trying to
breach a blockade by carrying aid into Gaza in 2010. A 2016 reconciliation
agreement that saw the return of ambassadors all but collapsed in 2018-2019,
when more than 200 Gazans were shot dead by Israeli forces during border
protests. During a landmark visit by Israeli President Isaac Herzog to Ankara in
March, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proclaimed the meeting marked "a
turning point in our relations". Israel did not immediately detail when its
ambassador would be posted to Ankara.
Leaders of Ukraine, Turkey and UN to meet Thursday in
Lviv
Associated Press/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan have accepted an invition from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to
meet Thursday to review the deal allowing Ukrainian grain to be shipped to world
markets to help alleviate the global grain crisis and discuss ways to end the
six-month-old war. U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric told reporters Tuesday that
he has no doubt the three leaders will also discuss the situation at the
Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, where Russia and Ukraine
have accused each other of shelling.
Dujarric said they also will likely talk about a U.N. fact-finding mission to
investigate the killings at the Olenivka prison in a separatist region of
eastern Ukraine that the warring nations accuse each other of carrying out. He
said he expects "the need for a political solution" to the war to be raised
during the meeting in the western city of Lviv, not far from the Polish border.
It comes after the signing of an international agreement in Istanbul on July 22
clearing the way for Ukraine to export 22 million tons of corn and other grain
stuck at its Black Sea ports and in silos since Russia invaded the country on
Feb. 14. A separate memorandum between Russia and the U.N. signed the same day
was aimed at clearing roadblocks to its shipments of food and fertilizer to
world markets. Erdoğan's office confirmed that he leader will be in Lviv on
Thursday to meet with Zelenskyy and Guterres to discuss the grain deal as well
as ways to end the war through diplomatic means. Guterres first proposed the
grain deal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Zelensky at
separate meetings in Moscow and Kyiv in late April. The U.N.'s Dujarric said the
secretary-general's trip to Ukraine is "a chance for him just to see first-hand
the results of an initiative … that is so critically important to hundreds of
millions of people." After the three-way meeting, and likely bilateral talks
between Erdogan and Guterres, the U.N. chief will travel to Odesa, one of the
three Ukrainian ports now operating to ship grain, on Friday, Dujarric said. He
will then travel to Istanbul on Saturday to visit the center coordinating the
Black Sea shipping, which includes the four parties to the deal -- Ukraine,
Russia, Turkey and the United Nations. Russia was not invited by Zelensky to the
meeting in Lviv. Dujarric said the secretary-general had "a very good
conversation" Monday with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, which touched
on the grain shipments from both Ukraine and Russia. During the phone call,
Guterres and Shoigu also discussed "the conditions for the safety operations of
the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant" and a fact-finding mission to the Olenivka
prison, Dujarric said. The war and a halt to all Ukrainian grain shipments and
most Russian shipments of grain and fertilizer added significantly to the global
food crisis because both countries are major suppliers to world markets.
Developing countries have been especially hard-hit by supply shortages and high
prices. Even though ships are now leaving Russia and Ukraine and some prices
have dropped, the food crisis has not ended.
Tehran Ready to Swap Prisoners, Urges US to Free Jailed
Iranians
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Iran is ready to swap prisoners with the United States, its foreign ministry
spokesman was quoted as saying on Wednesday, calling on President Joe Biden's
administration to "act instead of performing theatrical shows". Tehran has
sought the release of over a dozen Iranians in the United States, including
seven Iranian-American dual nationals, two Iranians with permanent US residency
and four Iranian citizens with no legal status in the United States. "We are
ready to swap prisoners with Washington ... The US must release jailed Iranian
citizens without any conditions," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted
foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani as saying, according to Reuters. On
Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted that Siamak Namazi had now
spent 2,500 days "wrongfully detained" in Iran and Washington was determined to
secure the freedom of all Americans held by its Middle East adversary. Kanaani
spoke with Tehran and Washington trying to revive a 2015 nuclear pact after
lengthy negotiations. The European Union and United States said on Tuesday they
were studying Iran's response to what the EU has called its "final" proposal to
save the deal, after Tehran called on Washington to show flexibility.
Egypt says central bank governor resigns amid economic woes
Associated Press/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Egypt's central bank governor resigned Wednesday as the country struggles to
address its economic woes. President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi accepted the
resignation of Tarek Amer and named him a presidential adviser, the Egyptian
leader' office said in a statement. The brief statement offered no reasons for
Amer's resignation. He had been appointed as governor of the central bank in
November 2015. No replacement was immediately named. Amer has been criticized
over handling the country's financial challenges which have seen the local
currency slide against the U.S. dollar in recent months. The pound has lost much
of its value. The U.S. currency has been traded at over 19.20 pounds in Egypt's
banks, up from average of 15.6 pounds for $1 before the central bank's decision
to devalue the pound in March. Inflation also increased in recent months partly
because of the repercussions of Russia's war in Ukraine. Egypt is the world's
largest wheat importer, and most of its imports come from Russia and Ukraine.
The annual inflation in Egypt reached 14.6% in July, increasing the burdens on
consumers especially lower-income households and particularly for everyday
necessities. Amer's resignation came as the government in talks with the
International Monetary Fund for a new loan to support its reform program and to
help address challenges caused by the war in Europe.
Iraqi Leaders, Bar Sadr, Agree to Work on Political Roadmap
Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
Iraq's main political leaders -- but not firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr
-- agreed Wednesday to work on a roadmap aimed at ending the country's political
impasse, after talks called by the premier. They also pledged to keep talking,
and urged Sadr to join what Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi called the
"national dialogue". Ten months after a general election last October,
war-scarred Iraq still has no government, new prime minister or new president,
because of disagreement over forming a coalition. Tensions have been rising
since July between the two main Shiite factions, one led by Sadr, the other by
the pro-Iran Coordination Framework. Attempts to mediate have so far proved
fruitless. Sadr wants parliament dissolved to pave the way for new elections,
but the Coordination Framework wants to set conditions and demands a
transitional government before new polls. After Wednesday's talks, a statement
from Kadhimi's office said the meeting resulted in "several points agreed upon".
These included a commitment to finding a solution through a continuing dialogue
"to present a legal and constitutional roadmap to address the current crisis".
Early elections were not ruled out, with the statement saying that "resorting to
the ballot box once again through early elections is not an unprecedented event
in the history of democracies", but without explicitly calling for them. The
Coordination Framework was represented at Wednesday's talks by two former
premiers, Haidar al-Abadi and Nouri al-Maliki. Also present were Hadi al-Ameri
and Faleh al-Fayyad, senior officials in the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF)
of former paramilitaries, now part of the national forces. Maliki is a longtime
foe of Sadr, the influential populist cleric whose bloc emerged from last
October's elections as parliament's biggest, but still far short of a majority.
Sadr supporters have been staging a sit-in outside parliament in Baghdad's high
security Green Zone for more than two weeks, and the Coordination Framework
began a rival Baghdad protest on Friday. President Barham Salih and
parliamentary Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi also attended the talks, as did
officials of the two main Kurdish parties and the UN envoy in Iraq, Jeanine
Hennis-Plasschaert. As the meeting got under way, a terse press release from the
Sadr faction said simply that it was not taking part "in the national dialogue".
Announcing the talks on Tuesday, Kadhimi's office had said they aimed "to start
a profound national dialogue and deliberation; to find solutions to the current
political crisis". Earlier Tuesday, Sadr had backtracked after previously urging
his supporters to join a massive rally as the standoff appeared to be getting
worse. He said a "million-man demonstration" planned for Baghdad on Saturday was
being postponed indefinitely.
Sadr takes a step back, cancels ‘mass demonstration’ in
bid to de-escalate
The Arab Weekly/August 17/2022
“If you had been betting on a civil war, I am betting on preserving social
peace. The blood of Iraqis is more precious than anything else,” Sadr said.
Iraq’s firebrand Shia cleric Moqtada Sadr backtracked Tuesday after earlier
urging his supporters to join a massive rally as a stand-off with his political
rivals appeared to be getting worse. The populist cleric’s announcement came
amid behind the scenes talks aimed at steering Iraq out of crisis, with the
country’s two Shia camps jockeying for political dominance. More than ten months
on from elections, Iraq still has no government, new prime minister nor a new
president, because of disagreement between factions over forming a coalition.
Sadr wants parliament dissolved to pave the way for fresh legislative elections,
but his rivals, the pro-Iran Coordination Framework, want to set conditions and
are demanding a transitional government before new polls. Iraqi analysts said
that Sadr is not completely confident that street pressure will compel the
Coordination Framework to accept the dissolution of parliament and the holding
of new elections. They add that some of Sadr’s allies have become convinced that
the use of popular demonstrations as a political tool may end up being
counterproductive as the wider public becomes increasingly resentful of the two
rival camps’ obstruction of normal political life and the work of government.
There is also fear that further escalation and counter-escalation moves, if left
unchecked, could lead to a full-fledged civil war. The cleric’s bloc emerged
from last October’s elections as parliament’s biggest, but still far short of a
majority. Sadr, whose supporters have been staging a sit-in protest outside
parliament in Baghdad’s high security Green Zone for more than two weeks, had
called for a “million-man demonstration” in the capital on Saturday.
But on Tuesday he announced on Twitter “the indefinite postponement of
Saturday’s protest”. “If you had been betting on a civil war, I am betting on
preserving social peace. The blood of Iraqis is more precious than anything
else,” Sadr said.
Late on Monday, a committee organising demonstrations in support of the
Coordination Framework also announced new gatherings, but without setting a
date. The Coordination Framework launched their own Baghdad sit-in on Friday,
camping out on an avenue in the capital. The Coordination Framework comprises
paramilitaries of the Tehran-backed Hashed al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation
Forces) network and the party of former premier Nuri al-Maliki, a long-time Sadr
foe. So far the rival Shia protests have been peaceful, with attempts at
mediation ongoing. Hadi al-Ameri, leader of a Hashed faction, has also called
for calm and for dialogue. He has had a series of meetings with political
leaders including allies of Sadr. Also on Tuesday, Finance Minister Ali Allawi
who is in the current government submitted his resignation to the Council of
Ministers, the INA state news agency reported. Allawi resigned during a cabinet
meeting on Tuesday to protest the political conditions. They said Oil Minister
Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar will become acting finance minister. Iraq has been ravaged by
decades of conflict and endemic corruption. It is blighted by ailing
infrastructure, power cuts and crumbling public services and now also faces
water shortages as drought ravages swathes of the country. Despite its oil
wealth, many Iraqis are mired in poverty and some 35 percent of young people are
unemployed, according to the United Nations.
US Mediates between Libya’s Parliament, High Council of
State
Cairo - Khaled Mahmoud/Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
The Libyan Presidential Council sought US mediation to resolve the ongoing
disputes between the Speaker of Libya’s House of Representatives (HoR), Aguila
Saleh, and the Chairman of the High Council of State (HCS) Khalid al-Mishri. The
US and the international and local community fear an outbreak of a new armed
conflict in Tripoli between militias loyal to the interim Government of National
Unity (GNU), headed by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, and militias loyal to
parliament-appointed Fathi Bashagha, who chairs the "stability" cabinet. Member
of the Presidential Council Abdullah al-Lafi discussed with US Ambassador
Richard Norland the Council’s efforts to address Libya's political and security
situation. During a phone call, Lafi and Norland agreed that parties should
avoid any step that could provoke violence. Lafi sought to convince Norland to
mediate between Saleh and Mishri after sources close to the two parties
confirmed the failure of their recent meeting in Cairo. Lafi and Norland
commended the Council for its work in promoting national reconciliation and
welcomed the African Union (AU) role in this regard. The ambassador applauded
the Presidential Council's engagement with key leaders and noted the intensive
discussions that were held in Ankara, Cairo, and Libya. "The US urges the GNU to
continue engagement with Libyan institutions to pave the way for presidential
and parliamentary elections as soon as possible," he remarked. They stressed
that work would continue to resolve all political issues that are impeding
stability, paving the way for holding presidential and parliamentary elections
and avoiding any escalation that might threaten the political process and the
safety of civilians. On Monday, Saleh and Mishri arrived in Cairo for a meeting
aimed at discussing the Libyan crisis. Saleh’s media advisor Abdul Hamid al-Safi
said the meeting addressed the contentious constitutional issues, namely the
case of dual nationals and the right of military personnel to vote. Safi noted
that Saleh and Mishri agreed to return to their councils for further
consultation and to reach a final agreement on the draft constitution regarding
the constitutional framework. Well-informed sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that
Saleh and Mishri would return to Cairo after ten days.
Syria denies it is holding American journalist Austin
Tice
DAMASCUS, Syria (AP)/ August 17, 2022
— Syria denied on Wednesday it is holding U.S. journalist Austin Tice or other
Americans after President Biden accused the Syrian government of detaining him.
The Syrian Foreign Ministry said in a statement that Damascus “denies it had
kidnapped or is holding any American citizen on its territories.”
“The U.S. issued last week misleading and illogical statements by the American
president and secretary of state that included baseless accusations against
Syria that it had kidnapped or detained American citizens including former U.S.
Marine Austin Tice,” the statement said.
Biden’s comments last week came in a statement released by the White House to
mark the 10th anniversary of Tice’s abduction, which took place when he was in
Syria covering its lengthy conflict. Biden’s remarks were the clearest
indication so far that the U.S. is certain Tice is being held by the government
of President Bashar Assad.
“We know with certainty that he has been held by the Government of Syria,” Biden
said in his statement last week. “We have repeatedly asked the government of
Syria to work with us so that we can bring Austin home.”
State Department Spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Tuesday that the U.S.
government has pushed Syria to return every American. On Tice’s case
specifically, he said, the Biden administration has “engaged extensively – and
that includes directly – with Syrian officials and through third parties.”
“Syria has never acknowledged holding him,” Price said of Tice, adding that “we
are not going to be deterred in our efforts. We are going to pursue every avenue
for securing Austin’s safe return.”
The Syrian Foreign Ministry denied in its statement having any secret contacts
with U.S. officials on the missing Americans, adding that “any official dialogue
with the American government will only be public based on the respect of Syria’s
sovereignty.”
In May, top Lebanese security official Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim met with U.S.
officials in Washington as part of mediation efforts between the U.S. and Syria
for Tice’s release. Ibrahim, the chief of Lebanon’s General Security
Directorate, has mediated complicated hostage releases in the past.
Tice went missing shortly after his 31st birthday on Aug. 14, 2012, at a
checkpoint in a contested area west of the capital Damascus. A video released a
month later showed him blindfolded and held by armed men, saying “Oh, Jesus.” He
has not been heard from since. Tice is one of two Americans who went missing in
Syria. The other is Majd Kamalmaz, a psychologist from Virginia, who vanished in
Syria in 2017.
Damascus Announces Establishing Syrian-Iraqi Business
Council
Damascus – Asharq Al-Awsat/Wednesday, 17 August, 2022
The Syrian Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade issued a decision on Tuesday to
establish the Syrian-Iraqi Business Council. The Ministry designated Mohamed
Nasser al-Sawwah as the President of the Council and Ziad Aubrey as a
vice-chairman from the Syrian side.
According to a Ministry statement, the Council aims to strengthen the role of
the private sector and to take advantage of its potential to develop economic
relations between Syria and Iraq in various fields of trade, investment,
industry, agriculture and tourism. The statement underscored the importance of
the Iraqi market for Syrian export products that meet the needs of the Iraqi
consumer. Until 2010, Iraq imported around 46.5 percent of Syria’s overall
exports to Arab States. The Syrian and Iraqi sides maintained their economic
relationship, despite the war and the turbulent situation in both countries.
Iraq is an important and close market, which remained open to Syrian products in
light of international economic sanctions imposed on the Syrian regime. The
establishment of the Syrian-Iraqi Business Council coincides with the
government’s decision to establish dozens of commercial companies in Syria owned
by Iraqi, Iranian and Lebanese investors, the latest of which is the Nabaa Al-Maaref
Company for Office Supplies, owned by Iraqi investors and headquartered in the
Damascus countryside. Still, the flow of goods between both countries faces many
problems related to shipping and certificates of origin. Those difficulties were
discussed last week between the Chairman of the Damascus Countryside Chamber of
Industry, Samer Al-Dibs and commercial attaché at the Iraqi embassy in Damascus
Khattab Ali Ismail. Both tackled the mechanism of economic and commercial
cooperation and the ways of flowing Syrian goods to Iraq markets, in addition to
organizing exhibitions, securing the shipment of Syrian goods to Iraq and
solving the problems that hinder the process of exchanging goods. The Bukamal
crossing, which is controlled by the Syrian regime and located in the Iranian
sphere of influence in Syria, is the most important crossing for transporting
goods from Syria to Iraq. The average commercial freight movement between the
two countries is estimated at 25 trucks per day, most of which are local goods
heading towards Iraq. According to official Syrian figures, the total revenues
of the crossing in 2020 amounted to about $276,000.
Ukraine war: Insolence of Russian troops in Kherson
appears to confirm officers have fled, source says
Sky News/August 17, 2022
The city of Kherson, on the banks of the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, was
taken by Russian forces without much fight in early March, days after the
invasion started.
It remains Russia's biggest victory in the war and still one of the only major
cities that its forces have managed to capture. In recent weeks, however,
Ukrainian forces have struck three key bridges over the river, making them
virtually impassable for heavy vehicles - the aim being to slowly strangle
Russian supply lines and cut off thousands of soldiers in the city. Ukraine
'kills 200 Russians in a day' - war latest
A full-on Ukrainian counteroffensive is thought to be imminent.
Making contact with anyone still trapped in Kherson is hard - most people are
understandably either too frightened to take the risk, or simply do not have a
phone or internet connection with the outside world. Ukrainian mobile phone
networks have been shut down and replaced with insecure Russian equivalents that
are bugged and do not allow international calls. Websites such as Google,
Instagram and YouTube are blocked and access to international news is almost
impossible.
There is one small area in the city, known to a few people, that still connects
with Ukrainian phone networks - people go there to send and receive messages
when they can. In the villages outside Kherson city, people climb on to roofs in
search of phone signal. Meeting friends or family takes planning and courage.
"We agree in advance on the exact time, exact hour and exact meeting place, and
we cannot cancel the agreements, because it is very difficult," one resident
told us.
"We write notes, leave them. We use coded language."
A resistance newspaper has recently been launched - it is pushed through
letterboxes after dark and Ukrainian resistance inside the city keeps people
updated with the location of Russian checkpoints. We've spent weeks speaking to
people who have recently escaped from Kherson and heard their stories of Russian
occupation.
They told us accounts of people disappearing every day and rumours of a Russian
crematorium to burn the bodies of Russian soldiers to cover up their losses and
to get rid of the corpses of Ukrainians they tortured and killed.
"Black cars come in the middle of the night and take people away," one resident
said. Some return weeks later, and many have never been seen again.
Basic services - food and medicine - are either in short supply or now
prohibitively expensive and life is becoming "desperate", we were told.
Scarcity of affordable meat has turned people vegetarian, and one person we
spoke to said they are now "on the verge of starvation".
"There is almost no medical care left there, medicines are a big problem,"
Liliya told us from Odesa. She had just arrived from Kherson and had to pass
through 19 Russian roadblocks before she could escape. "Now they have started
importing food products from [Russian-occupied] Crimea, but they are very
expensive," she said. "This is the problem - the products have appeared, but you
can't buy them because you don't have money." They all speak about living in
fear of the Russian occupiers.
"It's scary," says Olena. "You don't know what's in their heads. You don't know
what they will do to you. You are afraid to say something. You always filter
your speech because you can't call a spade a spade. Maybe there is a Russian
soldier sitting next to you on a bench listening to you. "We never use names and
exact addresses in conversation and correspondence, it is forbidden. Sometimes
we agree on code words during a personal meeting."
Olena continued: "If you mention the movement of enemy equipment, then you must
delete all correspondence so that you have nothing on your phone. Because you
can be stopped on the street and asked to show your phone."
She told us stories of people who are taken and held in basements and
electrocuted for displaying the Ukrainian flag. Despite this, the yellow and
blue colours of Ukraine have been sprayed on walls and painted on to pillars in
defiance of the occupation. After trying many different routes, and failing, we
finally made contact with someone still inside Kherson. Dmytro, not his real
name, is a journalist and unable to tell the story of his city himself, so he
asked us to. Over a fragile internet connection, he pleaded for the world not to
forget Kherson. "I understand that for people it is somewhere far away," he
said. "Maybe they are tired of reading about Ukraine every day in the news. We
still want to reach every European, every citizen of the world, so that they
talk about us, know about us, in particular about Kherson."He said that in the
suburbs, Russian soldiers walk through the streets drunk, "a bottle of alcohol
in one hand, a machine gun in the other".
Perhaps in anticipation of the coming counteroffensive, Dmytro said that the
behaviour of Russian soldiers had changed in the past couple of weeks.
Longer range missiles sent by US and UK are making Russia change tactics
HIMAR system: The new US weapon being used by Ukraine against Russian targets
"There is a checkpoint at almost every intersection," he continued. "All cars
and buses are checked. Everyone is asked for their passports. They tear down
garage doors and gates. They are looking for weapons, they are looking for some
equipment. They are very afraid of partisans."It has been widely reported that
the families of Russian soldiers who moved to Kherson in the days after it was
captured have now left, fearing a counteroffensive. And we have been told by
Ukrainian military sources that Russian commanders in Kherson city have
withdrawn to the other side of the river.
Dmytro said: "To be honest, if maybe two generals or five colonels left Kherson,
it's not very noticeable. But the ordinary soldiers, the Russian occupiers, have
begun to behave very insolently. "It's clear that they have absolutely no
discipline. This indirectly confirms that the top officers must have escaped.
But no one saw it, because it is impossible to see. How they got to the other
side [of the Dnipro river] must have been some kind of secret operation." Sky
can't independently verify these accounts. The Russians deny the claims, but
they are from multiple sources over the course of several months. Longer-range
HIMARS missiles, donated by the US and UK, have allowed Ukrainian forces to hit
strategic targets further away than previously.
The targeting of the three road and rail bridges that cross the Dnipro River in
Kherson has been a deliberate strategy to cut off resupply routes and to put
fear into the Russian soldiers. It's working. The balance in Kherson is slowly
tipping in favour of Ukraine.
'How can anyone live that way?': Ukrainians flee grim life
in Russian-occupied Kherson
HANNA ARHIROVA/LA Times/August 17, 2022
FILE - Russian soldiers guard an area as a group of foreign journalists visit in
Kherson, Kherson region, south Ukraine, May 20, 2022. The southern city of
Kherson was the first to fall to Russia's invasion. But Kherson remains at the
heart of the conflict and Ukraine's efforts to save its vital access to the sea.
Russian soldiers stand guard in Kherson, an occupied city in southern Ukraine.
(Associated Press)
It was early one morning when life under Russian occupation became too much for
Volodymyr Zhdanov: Rocket fire aimed at Ukrainian forces struck near his home in
the city of Kherson, terrifying one of his two children.
His 8-year-old daughter “ran in panic to the basement. It was 2 o’clock in the
morning and [she] was really scared,” said Zhdanov, who later fled the city on
the Black Sea and has been living in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, for the last
three weeks.
Kherson, located north of the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed by Moscow in
2014, was the first city to fall after Russia's invasion began Feb. 24. The port
remains at the heart of the conflict and Ukraine’s efforts to preserve its vital
access to the sea. For Russia, Kherson is a key point along the land corridor
from its border to the peninsula. Zhdanov and others who made the hazardous
journey to escape from the region describe increasingly grim conditions there,
part of a heavy-handed effort by Russia to establish permanent control. The
streets in the city, which had a prewar population of about 300,000, are mostly
deserted. Rumors swirl about acts of armed resistance and the sudden
disappearance of officials who refuse to cooperate with the Russian authorities.
Occupation forces patrol in markets to warn those trying to use the Ukrainian
currency, the hryvnia, in transactions. Pro-Moscow officials have been installed
in local and regional governments, as well as on the police force. Workers at
various municipal services face pressure to cooperate with Russian managers.
Most schools have closed. Supplies of essential goods are uneven, halting most
commercial activity. There are shortages of medicines and spikes in the price of
other commodities.
Many residents had been determined to hold out as long as possible for a
promised Ukrainian counterattack that hasn't materialized.
“There was physical danger in the city, because there were many soldiers,”
Zhdanov said. A referendum on the region becoming a part of Russia has been
announced by Moscow-installed officials, although no date has been set.
Meanwhile, officials are pressuring those remaining to take Russian citizenship.
Income from Zhdanov's family flower business dried up after the currency change,
although he kept growing plants anyway. “It’s difficult to survive with no money
and no food,” he said. “Who would want a Russian government if your life,
business and kids’ education are taken away from you? They’ve all gone.”
When he left Kherson with his family, Zhdanov risked arrest by hiding a
Ukrainian flag in the bottom of his pack. He had kept the flag from a public
protest of the Russian troop presence. Journalist Yevhenia Virlych also stayed
for five months and kept working, writing about officials who had allegedly
cooperated with the Russians. But she worked while in hiding and feared for her
safety, frequently changing apartments and posting photos of Poland on social
media to give the impression she had already fled. Protester wrapped in
Ukrainian flag in Kherson, southern Ukraine
A woman wrapped in a Ukrainian flag stands in front of Russian troops during a
rally against Russian occupation in Kherson, Ukraine, in March. (Uncredited /
Associated Press)
“They have tied a knot around Kherson, and it’s getting tighter,” Virlych said,
adding that locals were being pressured to accept Russian passports. “Russia,
which came under the banner of liberation, but came to torture and take us
captive. How can anyone live that way?”
Last month, Virlych finally fled to Kyiv with her husband.
Those wanting to leave Kherson must pass a series of Russian military
checkpoints. Soldiers search belongings, identity papers and mobile phones, with
anyone suspected of supporting the resistance facing interrogation at so-called
filtration camps.
As Kherson sinks into poverty, it's getting harder to leave. A bus ticket to
Zaporizhzhia, a city 185 miles to the northeast, now costs the equivalent of
$160. Before the war, it was $10.
Virlych said she admired the bravery of those who are staying behind as well as
of those who risked their lives to join anti-Russian protests in the early
stages of the occupation. She recalled a major demonstration March 5 attended by
more than 7,000 people. “In all my life, I’ve never seen people take such
action,” she said. By April, the protests had stopped as occupying troops began
responding to them with lethal force, Virlych said, adding: "The Russians were
opening fire [at crowds] and people were getting wounded.”Moscow wants to
maintain its hold on Kherson, strategically located near the North Crimean
Canal, which provides water to the Russian-annexed peninsula. Ukraine had shut
down the canal after the annexation eight years ago, but the Russians reopened
it after they took control of the region. Like Zhdanov, Virlych is still holding
out hope for a Ukrainian counteroffensive to wrest the region away from Russia.
“I believe only in God and the Ukrainian armed forces,” she said. “I no longer
have faith in anything else.”This story originally appeared in Los Angeles
Times. Our goal is to create a safe and engaging.
The Latest LCCC English analysis &
editorials from miscellaneous sources published
on August 17-18/2022
Biden Exploits Muslim Murders to Play Identity Politics
Raymond Ibrahim/August 17/2022
The Left — from the media to the White House — thrives on identity politics,
hypocrisy and double standards. Especially on questions of race, ethnicity, and
“diversity.”
On August 5, a murder victim became the fourth Muslim to be killed in
Albuquerque since November 2021. Even though the identity of the killer and his
motives were unknown, many rushed to denounce the killings as “hate crimes,”
conjuring up images of the left’s blame-all bogeyman: white supremacists.
In a post on Twitter that started, “I am angered and saddened by the horrific
killings of four Muslim men in Albuquerque,” Joe Biden affirmed, “my
Administration stands strongly with the Muslim community. These hateful attacks
have no place in America.”
Fifteen minutes later, Kamala Harris parroted the president: “I am deeply
disturbed by the killings of four Muslim men in Albuquerque. … [W]e stand with
the Muslim community in New Mexico and around our country. Hate has no place in
America.”
Then reality hit: on August 9, police arrested a man in connection to the four
murdered Muslims — and he himself, Muhammad Syed, is from the same supposedly
beleaguered “Muslim community” that Biden and Harris “stand strongly with.”
Now, let’s consider the noteworthy and instructive aspects of this debacle.
First, on average, about 42 people are reportedly killed every day in America,
by just guns alone (meaning significantly more people are killed every day by
all methods). The overwhelming majority of these — victims of black-on-black
violence — receive zero mention in the media.
So why did the killings of four men, over the course of nine months, get so much
media and political attention? Because they were Muslim and could be exploited
by those who thrive on identity politics to further their favorite narrative:
that white supremacists, racists, and other “deplorables” — in short, Jan. 6
types — are running amok in America. If it was known from the start that a
Muslim murdered Muslims, this story would have received zero coverage — just as
it is quickly now being buried down the memory hole.
Then there is the sheer hypocrisy: ideologically driven and religiously inspired
hate crimes and murders do exist; but because the overwhelming majority of them
do not fit the Left’s narrative, they are routinely ignored, suppressed and
distorted.
Consider the Muslim persecution and murder of Christians. According to one
report, 360 million Christians around the world are currently persecuted for
their religious identity — and the overwhelming majority of that persecution,
some 80%, occurs in Muslim nations. On average, every day, thirteen Christians
are killed for their faith; twelve are illegally arrested or imprisoned; five
are abducted; and twelve churches or other Christian buildings are attacked and
often destroyed. Again, that’s every day.
Indeed, because the media rarely touches on this phenomenon, since July 2011, I
began to compile a monthly report, collating and summarizing the many accounts
of persecution that surface every month. Every one of these now 130 reports
typically feature the bombing, burning or banning of churches; the rape and
forced conversion of Christian women; murderous attacks on and long prison
sentences for apostates and blasphemers; generic but institutionalized
discrimination and exploitation; and, of course, the outright slaughter of
Christians (usually dozens every month).
And yet, the same media figures and politicians that were quick to showcase four
of the countless murders that occur in America because they seemed to support
the idea that Americans are targeting and murdering Muslims, say nothing about
these disturbing trends, even when the atrocities are of a “sensationalist”
nature. Thus, a video of ISIS carving off the heads of 21 Christians because
they refused to recant their faith received six times less media coverage than
the inadvertent killing of a gorilla.
Other times, when the attacks are so spectacular that omitting them risks
exposing the media’s bias—for example, a Muslim terror attack on a church that
leaves dozens of “infidels” dead—media do everything possible to, not only take
the “hate” out of the equation, but to suppress the religious identities of both
the (Christian) victims and (Muslim) murderers.
Most recently, on Pentecost Sunday, June 5, 2022, Muslims stormed a church
during mass and massacred more than 50 Christians in Nigeria. Even though
jihadist-driven Muslims are purging Nigerian Christians in a genocide—with one
Christian being killed every two hours—and even though ideologically-driven
Muslims have attacked, torched, or destroyed some 20,000 churches and Christian
schools, in describing the Pentecost Sunday church massacre, the words “Muslim,”
“Islam,” or even “Islamist” never appear in the AP report. Rather, we are told
that “It was not immediately clear who was behind the attack on the church.”
(Such dissembling is an ancient “mainstream media” tactic, especially for the
New York Times.)
Others, such as Ireland’s president, Michael Higgins, suggested that “climate
change” was the true culprit behind the Pentecost Sunday attack—and scolded
anyone who dared accuse Muslims. A decade earlier, Bill Clinton said that
“inequality” and “poverty” are “what’s fueling all this stuff” (“this stuff”
being the ongoing massacre of Christians at the hands of Muslims in Nigeria).
When Muslims bombed three churches in Sri Lanka during Easter Sunday, 2019,
killing some 300 Christians, Democratic leaders, including Barack Obama and
Hilary Clinton, could not even bring themselves to identify the slain victims as
“Christians.” Instead, they condemned a “terror” attack on “Easter worshippers.”
Compare and contrast this with Biden/Harris’s emphasis on Muslims being killed
due to hate.
When an Australian man attacked two mosques and killed 51 Muslims in 2019 in New
Zealand, the world stood up in condemnation; the handwringing has not stopped
since. In response to that one lone and aberrant attack, the United Nations
inaugurated a “combat Islamophobia” initiative. On the other hand, and as
documented here, Muslims have massacred more than a thousand Christian
worshippers inside their churches, over the course of several attacks across a
variety of nations, since 2011. And yet, that is not enough for the UN to see a
pattern and promulgate, say, a “combat Christianophobia” initiative.
In short, when Muslims kill Christians and others in hate crimes—which is a
regular occurrence, especially in the Muslim world—the powers-that-be do
everything to conceal the religious identities of the killers and their victims.
Conversely, they do everything to make the reverse—that Americans and Westerners
in general are persecuting and murdering Muslims—appear to be true, even though
it’s not.
And the White House is fully in bed with this false narrative.
Islamic State conducts second major prison break in
Congo
CALEB WEISS & RYAN O'FARRELL/FDD's Long War Journal /August 17/ 2022
On Aug. 10, jihadists belonging to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), the local
name for the Islamic State’s Central Africa Province (ISCAP), raided the central
prison in the eastern Congolese city of Butembo. The attack, the group’s first
major foray inside Butembo, freed almost 800 inmates. This marks the second
major prison break conducted by the group since 2020.
The Islamic State was relatively quick to take credit, describing in a short
communique released the next day through its Amaq News that “fighters of the
Islamic State yesterday stormed the central Kakwangura prison in Butembo city in
the territory of North Kivu of eastern Congo, succeeding in liberating dozens of
Muslim prisoners.”
A longer, more detailed statement from the jihadist group goes on to describe
the assault in more detail, contending it was a coordinated assault performed by
three separate fighting groups.
According to the Islamic State “the first [group] attacked a barracks of the
guards and killed at least two members while other guards fled; the second group
stormed the prison after breaking its walls and burning it down; at the same
time the third group spread along the roads leading to Butembo with the goal of
cutting off any enemy reinforcements.”
The statement goes on to say that the jihadists divvied up the freed prisoners
among the different units involved in the break before ultimately withdrawing.
The ADF’s raid on the Kakwangura Prison was the first of its kind for the group
inside Butembo. While the ADF maintains a support network inside the city, it
had so far not conducted a major attack inside Butembo until Aug. 10.
According to Congolese officials, a group of around 80 ADF fighters assaulted
the Kakwangura prison after having infiltrated the city from the Mwalika valley,
a part of Virunga National Park approximately 30km northeast of Butembo in North
Kivu’s Beni territory. The ADF has maintained a series of camps in the Mwalika
valley since the late-1990s, most prominently serving as the primary site where
new recruits are inducted and trained.
This route to Butembo from the Mwalika valley would have taken the ADF through
Bashu Chiefdom, a hilly highland area with a significant population and several
large towns. The ability of such a large group of fighters to traverse this
terrain without reports or interception by security forces illustrates the ADF’s
continued ability to mount bold operations in challenging environments.
Congolese security officials stated that the jihadists were attempting to free
their members imprisoned within, particularly a specific member known as Kizito.
Kizito is reported to have been rearrested sometime following the jailbreak.
The prison assault was conducted during the night, which involved a firefight
between the jihadists and prison security guards. Officials stated that at least
five ADF members, two policemen, and one civilian were killed in the ensuing
clashes.
Over 800 inmates were freed in the 15-minute operation, though the Congolese
military now states that over 250 have since been recaptured. According to
inmates who have been recaptured, the ADF has also attempted to recruit some of
the non-members it freed from the prison by offering a monthly salary for new
recruits. The ADF made similar offers to non-members freed during the October
2020 assault on Kangbayi prison in Beni.
Map of Butembo and surrounding areas in North Kivu’s Beni territory, showing
relevant villages, landmarks, the ADF’s Mwalika camps location, and its
approximate route of egress from Butembo following the prison break.
As the ADF members withdrew eastwards through Butembo city and rural villages in
Bashu Chiefdom back into the Mwalika valley, the group clashed with security
forces and civilians alike. At least 3 ADF members involved in the prison break
were reportedly lynched by civilians in an eastern district of Butembo after
being detained by locals during their withdrawal from the city.
Local media reports that clashes with the Congolese military persist across
several villages in Beni territory’s southern Bashu area as the militants
continue their retreat back to their camps in their more typical areas of
operation. At least three civilians have been killed in such attacks. The
Islamic State has formally claimed one such clash in Bashu following the prison
break.
The assault on Kakwangura prison comes in the context of significant instability
in Butembo and surrounding areas. Protests demanding the withdrawal of the
United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of
the Congo (MONUSCO), the world’s largest UN peacekeeping mission, have spread to
much of eastern Congo, and in Butembo resulted in the deaths of seven
demonstrators and three peacekeepers on July 26.
Another prison break in line with the Islamic State’s “Breaking the Walls”
Last week’s prison break in Butembo represents the second such operation
conducted by the ADF since 2020. In Oct. 2020, the ADF raided the Kangbayi
prison inside Beni city, to the north of Butembo, freeing at least 1,200
inmates.
The ADF quickly claimed responsibility for that operation in the name of the
Islamic State on its social media channels before the Islamic State issued its
own formal communique. The ADF stated that Kangbayi raid was in response to a
then-recent Islamic State call for the liberation of Muslim prisoners.
Another jailbreak, a relatively minor one in which almost 20 inmates were freed
by the ADF, was conducted earlier this year. However, that raid, which took
place in the town of Nobili, a border town between Congo and Uganda, is not of
the same scale or significance as the prison breaks in Beni or Butembo.
All three prison breaks, however, exist as part of the Islamic State’s core
overall global strategy that it dubs “Breaking the Walls,” as the group’s
central leadership has routinely emphasized the importance of and need for
prison break operations around the world.
Jailbreaks can often act as a boon for jihadists. In addition to the major
propaganda value of such operations, jailbreaks can swell ranks, reinforce
capabilities by freeing more highly-trained individuals, and provide new senses
of direction by freeing leaders or key personnel. In addition to the
aforementioned breaks in Congo, the Islamic State’s global wings have also
recently mounted such operations in Nigeria, Syria, and Afghanistan, while
recent operational expansions by the Islamic State in Mozambique have raised
fears of future jailbreak attempts in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado
Province. It is too early to tell what the long-term impacts will be of this
week’s jailbreak in Butembo. The Kangbayi break in 2020 was a major boon for the
jihadist group, boosting morale, troops numbers, and capabilities as important
members were freed. It is possible that the raid in Butembo may too be a
harbinger for more violence conducted by the ADF across eastern Congo.
*Both authors are senior analysts at the Bridgeway Foundation, a philanthropic
organization dedicated to ending and preventing mass atrocities.
Reporters in Gaza have never been free
Clifford D. May/Washington Times, August 17/ 2022
Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood branch that rules Gaza, sat out this month’s
conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, a smaller Gaza-based
terrorist group tied to Iran’s rulers. However, perhaps to show it still rules
the roost, Hamas issued sweeping restrictions on foreign journalists working in
Gaza.
Among them: a prohibition against reporting on Gazans killed by misfired
Palestinian rockets and a requirement that Israel be blamed for the battle.
In addition, Hamas ordered all foreign correspondents to employ Palestinian
“sponsors” who must submit full reports on where those correspondents go, what
they do and any “illogical questions” they ask.
The new rules warned that sponsors must “demonstrate national spirit, defend the
Palestinian narrative and reject the foreigner’s bias to the Israeli narrative.”
The Foreign Press Association protested these “severe, unacceptable and
unjustified restrictions on the freedom of the press.” Discussions ensued and,
before long, the FPA was happily announcing that Hamas officials had come
around.
Salama Marouf, director of the government media office in Gaza, agreed. “There
are no restrictions,” he said. “We welcome all foreign journalists and media
into Gaza, and we call on them to come.”
A happy ending, right? Not exactly. The Associated Press, one of the media
organizations represented by the FPA, pointed out: “Even if the rules are
officially withdrawn, Hamas has still signaled its expectations, which could
have a chilling effect on critical coverage.”
That, too, fails to reflect a reality which is this: Reporters in Gaza have
never been free and are not now.
Since Hamas wrested control of Gaza from rival Fatah in 2007, foreign
journalists have been unable to work in the territory without Palestinian
sponsors (more commonly known as “minders,” “stringers” or “fixers”) answerable
to Hamas. They endanger both themselves and these hires if Hamas disapproves of
their reporting.
Matti Friedman, a former reporter and editor in the Jerusalem bureau of The
Associated Press has revealed all this and more in articles he wrote for Tablet,
The Atlantic and more recently Sapir (a journal covering Jewish issues).
His pieces exposed Hamas’ intimidation and censorship, as well as the limits
most journalists covering the Palestinian-Israel conflict impose on themselves
based on ideology, bias and the desire for acceptance within social circles
dominated by U.N. officials and employees of nongovernmental
How Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan Gambit Backfired
Craig Singleton/Foreign Policy/August 17/2022
Beijing’s shock-and-awe military response has created a new normal in East Asia.
History is replete with unintended consequences, few of which mattered much. Not
so in the case of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent layover in Taipei,
Taiwan’s capital. The trip, which garnered rare bipartisan support in
Washington, aimed to demonstrate U.S. confidence in Taiwan’s leadership.
Instead, the visit and China’s reaction to it left the region reeling, with
Beijing apparently more confident than ever that it could retake the
self-governed island nation by force if necessary.
Simply put, Pelosi’s ill-timed gambit backfired—and badly. Worse yet, its
destabilizing effect was entirely predictable and completely preventable, which
explains why White House and U.S. Defense Department officials repeatedly
requested that she postpone, not cancel, her travel to Taipei. Sure, Pelosi
faced political pressure not to back down once her plans became public. But it
was always clear that China would exact a high price for her meeting with
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, which need not have taken place in Taiwan or
coincided with the 95th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s
Liberation Army (PLA) to achieve its stated objective.
For all her good intentions, picking up the pieces after Pelosi’s tactical
misstep will not be easy. Understandably, the Biden administration has
downplayed the trip’s significance and reaffirmed its commitment to the United
States’ long-standing “One China” policy, which recognizes Beijing as “the sole
legal government of China” while ignoring its claims to rule Taiwan. Although
“nothing has changed” per se in Washington, the same cannot be said for the
Taiwan Strait, where China’s dramatic, expertly orchestrated show of military
force was no mere aberration.
Welcome, instead, to the next normal in East Asia.
China cannot veto if, when, or how foreign governments, companies, or other
entities engage Taiwan. But make no mistake: Beijing certainly gets a vote,
which it wielded hours after Pelosi left Taipei. China has long sought to erode
the status quo in the strait, aiming to coerce Taipei into accepting that the
path to peace and prosperity runs through Beijing, not Washington. Nevertheless,
the military spectacle that followed Pelosi’s trip was without precedent in
scope and scale. Think less salami tactics and more shock and awe. Nor did these
maneuvers appear out of thin air. They were likely devised in recent years by
PLA planners with the understanding that Beijing would one day enjoy, however
briefly, the political cover to justify such provocations.
To be fair, Pelosi’s trip did not occur in a vacuum. Beijing and Washington have
been talking past each other on the Taiwan issue since U.S. President Joe Biden
assumed office, with each side believing that the other is unilaterally seeking
to alter the status quo. Unquestionably, China has endeavored to find a
reason—any reason—to justify its increasing belligerence toward Taiwan. But
Beijing’s growing skepticism about Washington’s adherence to the “One China”
policy can, in large part, be attributed to Biden’s repeated mischaracterization
of the United States’ security commitments as outlined in the Taiwan Relations
Act, including his claim that the United States has a “commitment” to aid Taiwan
in the event of a Chinese invasion—whereas the act only requires Washington “to
provide Taiwan with arms of a defense character” without any guarantee the
United States will intervene militarily. Certainly, these gaffes do not excuse
Beijing’s behavior. But the regime’s response to Pelosi’s trip—coming just
months before a major Chinese Communist Party leadership shake-up—was hardly
surprising.
Whereas Russia’s foolhardy invasion of Ukraine stalled, in part, because of
Moscow’s third-rate planning and faulty assumptions, Beijing may not be
condemned to the same fate.
What is surprising is just how far the PLA’s capabilities have evolved since its
second-rate performance during the 1996 Taiwan missile crisis. This time, the
PLA put on a nearly flawless four-act play as its air and sea assets
crisscrossed Taiwan’s sovereign territory with impunity. First, China clearly
defined its areas of operation, after which civilian aircraft and commercial
shipping quickly obliged by vacating these zones. Next, in waves, the PLA
launched 11 Dongfeng ballistic missiles into the waters surrounding northern,
southern, and eastern Taiwan. Four flew directly over Taipei, marking one of
many firsts for China during these exercises. More than 120 Chinese aircraft
also crossed the informal maritime border that exists down the median line of
the Taiwan Strait.
Encountering no resistance, a PLA joint force then conducted, also for the first
time, simulated attacks on Taiwan in the actual airspace and territorial waters
where such an attack would likely begin. Finally, for good measure, China
announced additional drills in the Yellow Sea north of Taiwan. The goal: to
demonstrate that the PLA could prevent U.S. forces stationed in Japan’s Okinawa
Island or Seoul from coming to Taiwan’s aid during a crisis. In all, it was a
master class in strategy and tactics—one that involved thousands of personnel
who will spend the next few years refining their operational assumptions,
calculating down to the decimal how much fuel, food, and other supplies might be
needed to pull off an actual attack in the future. Whereas Russia’s foolhardy
invasion of Ukraine stalled, in part, because of Moscow’s third-rate planning
and faulty prewar assumptions, Beijing, it appears, may not be condemned to the
same fate.
Of course, these drills paid psychological dividends too. China confirmed that
it could, at a time and place of its choosing, severely disrupt—if not outright
block—critical global air and sea trade routes, including those involving
Taiwanese-produced semiconductors. The drills also served to shake Taiwan’s
confidence in the very sources of its political and economic survival by raising
the stakes for friendly governments that might be considering whether or how to
deepen their ties to Taipei. Already, some U.S. firms are reportedly eyeing a
Taiwan exit, and others will likely follow. The region’s mixed response was also
telling, with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations issuing a post-drill
communique that managed to omit the words “Taiwan” and “China.” Just as
deafening was the silence out of New Delhi to Beijing’s drills.
But China’s greatest triumph by far is that its leaders likely believe, rightly
or wrongly, that an invasion may now be practical, not purely theoretical. That
does not imply that an invasion is imminent or that Beijing intends to
accelerate its reunification timetable. Rather, it simply suggests that China is
on its way to overcoming what is arguably the greatest psychological barrier to
any invasion: internal doubts about its will and disposition to fight, keep
fighting, and win.
Regrettably, the U.S. intelligence community has proven incapable of accurately
assessing this most human fundamental of war, similar to its flawed predictions
that Russia would quickly overrun Ukraine and the U.S.-equipped Afghan military
could hold off the Taliban. These analytical shortcomings increase the potential
for serious miscalculations from here on out, compounded by China’s reckless
decision to sever key communications channels with the West. Adding to the
danger, the PLA will now almost certainly operate closer to Taiwan’s shores, in
effect shrinking the buffer zone and the corresponding margin of error that
previously existed in the strait.
Still, Beijing may prove unable to translate recent successes in its envisioned
battlefield into a new and lasting status quo. Instead, the post-Pelosi era can
be described, at best, as the next normal. There will be no going back to the
way things were before her visit, but the road to a possible invasion is hardly
a straight line. Although China capitalized on Pelosi’s bad timing, there remain
myriad opportunities for Taiwan and its friends to shape the lasting legacy of
today’s crisis in ways that benefit Taipei’s cause. Washington’s biggest hurdle
lies in its rapidly dwindling set of military options to deter China as the
latter approaches near-peer status. Of course, efforts must be made to speed up
deliveries of defensive weapons to Taiwan—but those investments alone will
likely prove insufficient in the long run. What should trouble Taiwan’s
supporters is the lack of evidence that the U.S. military is augmenting its
regional force or rapidly fielding new capabilities to maintain its edge.
Going forward under these new and less stable conditions, Washington and its
allies must develop more intelligent, less risky ways to aid Taipei.
Translation: fewer symbolic visits and more strategic substance. U.S.
policymakers must also recognize that forcefully responding to each and every
Chinese provocation is a fool’s errand that could lead to war—one that the
pro-Taiwan bloc may well lose. Refraining from taking Beijing’s bait is not a
sign of “passivity,” as some charge, but pragmatism as the balance of power
temporarily shifts in Beijing’s favor. Look no further than former U.S.
President Ronald Reagan’s example in occasionally pulling punches while
remaining steadfastly committed to undermining the Soviet Union.
The same practical mindset should also be applied to urgently establish a
de-escalation ladder between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, much like the
channel employed by then-U.S. President John F. Kennedy and then-Soviet Premier
Nikita Khrushchev during the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Granted, those exchanges
largely took place in secret, which shielded both leaders from charges of
capitulating to their countries’ sworn enemy. Ultimately though, both sides
ceded some ground, a calamitous war was averted, and a useful precedent was
established for subsequent U.S. leaders to dial down tensions without
sacrificing their values or strategic goals.
Today’s leaders may not benefit from the privacy enjoyed by Kennedy and
Khrushchev. But regardless, the next photo op involving U.S. and Chinese
politicians should be one focused on instilling confidence rather than
needlessly undermining it.
*Craig Singleton is a senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies and a former U.S. diplomat. Twitter: @CraigMSingleton. FDD is a
Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national
security and foreign policy.
China Is Winning the Economic Race with the US – The
Consequences Will Be Profound
Judith Bergman/Gatestone Institute/August 17/2022
The [Harvard Belfer Center] report, "The Great Economic Rivalry: China Vs. the
US," predicts that at the current rate China will overtake the US economically
within a decade.
When it comes to trade, China has now displaced the US. "When this century
began, China was knocking on the door of the WTO and the U.S. was the leading
trading partner of most major economies. Today, China has overtaken the U.S. to
become the largest trading partner for nearly every major nation... by 2018, 130
countries traded more with China than they did with the U.S....." — The Belfer
Report.
China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for
China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power
and other countries' dependency on it.
Today, the U.S. is the world's largest debtor; China is the largest creditor.
When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago.
"China is now the world's largest manufacturer and exporter of scores of
essential goods, including 90% of refined rare earth minerals, 80% of solar
panels, 50% of computers, and 45% of electric vehicles." — The Belfer Report.
Crucially, China is severely challenging the US when it comes to innovation....
In 2013, the US was the number one top innovating country, according to the
Bloomberg Innovation Index, but by 2020, it was not even in the top 10, having
fallen to number 11.... China's laser-like focus on frontier technologies has
positioned it to dominate races like 5G and AI in the future.
China is determined to see this development to its goal of becoming the dominant
power in the world by 2049.
What this new world economic order means for the future is probably difficult to
imagine for the many who have grown up with the US as the leading world power
and the accompanying celebrated values of freedom, democracy, and capitalism,
taken for granted by so many.
China's economic rise and the US response -- or lack of such -- will determine
the predominant values of the 21st century -- will it be China's
authoritarianism and disregard for freedom, democracy, and human rights or those
of the US and the West?
Today, the U.S. is the world's largest debtor; China is the largest creditor.
When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago.
China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for
China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power
and other countries' dependency on it.
China has closed the gap with the U.S. "in most economic races, even overtaking
it in some," according to a recent report from Harvard's Belfer Center for
Science and International Affairs. The report, "The Great Economic Rivalry:
China Vs. the US," predicts that at the current rate, China will overtake the US
economically within a decade.
Measured by purchasing power parity (PPP) -- which compares national economies
in terms of how much each nation can buy with its own currency at the prices
items sell for in its market -- China has already surpassed the US to become the
world's largest economy.
"When measured by PPP, in 2000, China's economy was 36% the size of the United
States,'" the report noted.
"In 2020, the IMF found it was 115% the size of the U.S. economy, or one-seventh
larger. While Presidents Obama, Trump, and now Biden have talked about a
historic 'pivot' to Asia, the seesaw has shifted to the point that both of
America's feet are dangling entirely off the ground."
When it comes to trade, China has now displaced the US, according to the report:
"When this century began, China was knocking on the door of the WTO and the U.S.
was the leading trading partner of most major economies. Today, China has
overtaken the U.S. to become the largest trading partner for nearly every major
nation... by 2018, 130 countries traded more with China than they did with the
U.S., and more than two-thirds of those countries traded more than twice as much
with China. With the launch of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
in January, China has also now surpassed the U.S. as the leader of the world's
largest free trade block."
The RCEP consists of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the
10 members of ASEAN and is expected to add $500 billion to world trade by 2030.
China's trade policies are not a matter of simply creating more wealth for
China, but as with most things that China does, a way to increase China's power
and other countries' dependency on it:
"As Xi Jinping explained last April, China's strategy in thickening trading
relationships is not just to spur its own economic growth. It is to increase
other nations' reliance on China," the Belfer center concluded. "China's goal –
in Xi's words – is to tighten 'international production chains' dependence on
China... Xi's strategy is working—not only with others but with the U.S. In
2021, purchases of products from China accounted for nearly half of America's $1
trillion trade deficit. Today, the U.S. is the world's largest debtor; China is
the largest creditor. "
When it comes to manufacturing, China already displaced the US a decade ago:
"China has created a manufacturing ecosystem that allows it to dominate the
production of almost everything," the report found. "Initially a low-cost
producer of inexpensive consumer goods, China became the world's largest
manufacturer in 2010 and accounted for 29% of global manufacturing value added
in 2019 – a 20-point increase over 2000."
China accounts for one-third of global manufacturing today, while the US
manufactures less than one-fifth. While the US was the primary trading partner
for most countries in 2001, today China holds that position. As such, China has
become the crucial link in the world's critical global supply chains:
"Despite the rhetoric about decoupling, foreign economies have become more
dependent on China during the coronavirus pandemic, not less," the report noted.
"China's trade surplus with the world hit a record $675 billion in 2021, a 60%
increase from pre-pandemic levels in 2019... China is now the world's largest
manufacturer and exporter of scores of essential goods, including 90% of refined
rare earth minerals, 80% of solar panels, 50% of computers, and 45% of electric
vehicles."
China has even replaced the US as the driver of world economic growth.
"Perhaps the most surprising fact for Americans who have not kept track of
recent developments is that China has displaced the U.S. to become the primary
engine of global growth. Since the Great Recession of 2008, approximately
one-third of all growth in the world's GDP has occurred in just one country:
China. Thus when nations around the world assess their prospective growth in the
year ahead, the first economy they think about is China. In sum, in the past two
decades, China has joined the U.S. and the EU as the third backbone of the
global economy."
Furthermore, in 2020, for the first time, China, not the US, was home to the
largest number of the most valuable global companies on Fortune's Global 500.
"For the first time since the magazine began listing its Global 500 rankings,
China topped the list with 124 companies—ahead of the U.S.'s 121. Twenty years
ago, this list included only ten Chinese companies," the Belfer report noted.
Crucially, China is severely challenging the US when it comes to innovation:
"The U.S. and China have been neck and neck in R&D spending since 2017, together
accounting for nearly half of global R&D expenditure," the Belfer center
concluded. "Measured by PPP in 2010 dollars, between 2000 and 2019, U.S R&D
expenditure almost doubled, growing from $360 billion to $610 billion. Chinese
R&D investments, meanwhile, grew by a factor of 13, from $40 billion to $515
billion."
In 2013, the US was the number one top innovating country, according to the
Bloomberg Innovation Index, but by 2020, it was not even in the top 10, having
fallen to number 11. China still lagged behind at number 16, but, according to
the report:
"It is catching up. As our earlier report on the 'Great Tech Rivalry' noted,
China's laser-like focus on frontier technologies has positioned it to dominate
races like 5G and AI in the future. Moreover, in former Deputy Secretary of
Defense Robert Work's apt summary, 'A lot of people still believe that all China
does is steal technology and copy it. They still do that, and they're quite good
at it. But also their technological ecosystem and their innovation ecosystem is
really, really good. And it's getting better all the time."
While the report points out that China has not yet overtaken the US and that the
dollar remains the world's dominant reserve currency, accounting for 60% of
foreign exchange reserves, in addition to a few other areas, it seems
increasingly difficult to see how the US could possibly turn things around with
the current trajectory. Especially because China is determined to see this
development to its goal of becoming the dominant power in the world by 2049.
"What this means for global geopolitics is profound. At the end of World War II
and for the decade that followed, the U.S. accounted for roughly half of global
GDP. From this position of dominance, the U.S. took the lead in...what became
the global economic order. When establishing alliances like NATO... the U.S.
could cover the costs without thinking about burden-sharing. But by the end of
the Cold War in 1991, America's share of global GDP had shrunk to one-fifth.
Today it stands at one-sixth.... China's rise has created a new world economic
order."
What this new world economic order means for the future is probably difficult to
imagine for the many who have grown up with the US as the leading world power
and the accompanying celebrated values of freedom, democracy, and capitalism,
taken for granted by so many.
China's economic rise and the US response -- or lack of such -- will determine
the predominant values of the 21st century – will it be China's authoritarianism
and disregard for freedom, democracy, and human rights or those of the US and
the West?
*Judith Bergman, a columnist, lawyer and political analyst, is a Distinguished
Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.
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