English LCCC Newsbulletin For
Lebanese, Lebanese Related, Global News & Editorials
For April 23/2022
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
#elias_bejjani_news
The Bulletin's Link on the lccc Site
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/aaaanewsfor2021/english.april23.22.htm
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Bible Quotations For today
Jesus Appears to His Disciples/Jesus said,
“Peace be with you! As the Father has sent me, I am sending you.” And with that
he breathed on them and said, “Receive the Holy Spirit.
John 20/19-23/On the evening of that first day of
the week, when the disciples were together, with the doors locked for fear of
the Jewish leaders, Jesus came and stood among them and said, “Peace be with
you!” After he said this, he showed them his hands and side. The disciples were
overjoyed when they saw the Lord. Again Jesus said, “Peace be with you! As the
Father has sent me, I am sending you.” And with that he breathed on them and
said, “Receive the Holy Spirit. If you forgive anyone’s sins, their sins are
forgiven; if you do not forgive them, they are not forgiven.
Titles For The Latest English LCCC Lebanese & Lebanese Related News & Editorials
published on April 22-23/2022
Beirut Port Blast Suspect Faces Extradition Hearing in Madrid
Report accuses Iran of sending port blast nitrates to Beirut
Bukhari Affirms 'Deep' Ties with Lebanon During Visit to Tripoli
Lebanese Security Forces Intensify Measures in Hezbollah Stronghold Following
Spike in Crime
Carlos Ghosn 'Surprised' by Reports of French International Arrest Warrant
Sudden exchange rate turmoil angers Lebanese ahead of parliamentary elections
Salam signs final report of negotiations with World Bank to secure wheat
Director of Al-Zahrani Plant: Deir Ammar, Al-Zahrani plants to resume operations
upcoming Tuesday/Wednesday
Protesters block Al-Zahrani Highway with burning tires
Nassar represents President Aoun at the inauguration of the ‘Phoenician Museum’
in Jounieh: Affiliation with the Council of Europe denotes the inclusion of
Lebanon on the Mediterranean tourism map
Sami Gemayel: We will hold accountable all those who killed the Lebanese,
squandered their money & the money of their children
Makhzoumi confers with Pakistani Ambassador over bilateral relations
Titles For The Latest English LCCC
Miscellaneous Reports And News published on April 22-23/2022
Pope Says June Meeting with Russian Orthodox Patriarch is Off
Iran Claims Arresting 3 Mossad Spies
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Reject US Proposals to Drop Plans to Avenge
Soleimani Killing
Iran: Teachers Demand Fair Wages, Better Working Conditions
UN Rights Office Cites Growing Evidence of War Crimes in Ukraine
Russia Pushes Offensive, Collects Corpses in ‘Liberated’ Mariupol
Russia will be a 'pariah state in the eyes of many people forever' and there'll
be no 'starting over' while Putin is still in charge, expert says
Mariupol 'continues to resist', Ukrainian president says
US intel says Putin believes he is winning the Ukraine war and the West will
give up on trying to isolate him, report says
Britain, India Call for Immediate Ceasefire in Ukraine
Erdogan Says Plans Calls with Putin, Zelenskiy for Leaders' Meeting
Two PKK-Linked Groups behind Attacks in Turkey, Says Minister
Turkey Might Cooperate with Assad without Recognizing Him
Bloody Fighting between Opposition Factions in N.Syria in Struggle for Power,
Influence
Tunisian President Seizes Control of Electoral Commission
Kuwait government’s resignation puts parliament on hold
Israeli police storm Jerusalem holy site after rock-throwing
Titles For The Latest LCCC English
analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on April 22-23/2022
New State Department Report Admits Iran May Be
Hiding Nuclear Activities/Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker/Policy
Brief/April 22/ 2022
How Israel’s Minority Government Can Stay in Power/Shany Mor/The National
Interest/April 21/2022 |
Are Biden and Putin agreeing on limits to the war? Just read their
statements./David Ignatius/The Washington Post/April 22/2022
What Does the West Want in Ukraine?Defining Success—Before It’s Too Late/Richard
Haass/Foreign Affairs/April 22/2022
'I’d Better Stay Quiet'/Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/April 22/2022
Putin’s Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan/Hal
Brands/Bloomberg/April,22/2022
Mariupol Could Be the Thermopylae of the 21st Century/Andreas
Kluth/Bloomberg/April,22/2022
Who Is Slaughtering the Hazaras of Afghanistan?/Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al
Awsat/April 22/2022
France: A Leap into the Unknown?/Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/April 22/2022
Question: "Is it wrong to be angry with God?"/GotQuestions.org?/Friday, 22
April, 2022
The Latest English LCCC Lebanese &
Lebanese Related News & Editorials published on April 22-23/2022
Beirut Port Blast Suspect Faces Extradition Hearing in Madrid
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
A Portuguese man faced an extradition hearing in Madrid over allegations he was
involved in the devastating 2020 port explosion in Beirut, authorities said on
Thursday. The man, named in court as Jorge Manuel Mirra Neto Moreira, flew to
Chile from the Spanish capital this week but was put on a plane back to Madrid
after Chilean authorities detained him at the request of global police agency
Interpol. Lebanon's justice minister Henry Khoury did not immediately respond to
a request for comment on whether Lebanon would seek the man's extradition.
Extradition processes in Spain can take several months. Moreira is not allowed
to leave Spain. His passport has been taken away and he must appear before
authorities on a weekly basis, a judicial source said. A juridical source told
Asharq Al-Awsat that Moreira came to Beirut in 2014 and examined the cargo at
Beirut port. Former Investigative Judge Fadi Sawan issued Interpol Red Notices
for Moreira and the captain, added the source. A source from Portugal's national
criminal investigation police unit PJ said Moreira had previously appeared
before a court in the northern Portuguese city of Porto as a result of the
Interpol notice, but the court shelved the case because Lebanon failed to send
the required documentation. The same could happen in Spain if Lebanon does not
send the needed documentation, the PJ source said. The massive port explosion on
August 4, 2020, which was due to the unsafe storage of large quantities of
ammonium nitrate, killed at least 214 people, while more than 6,500 were
injured, and devastated entire neighborhoods of the capital.
Report accuses Iran of sending port blast nitrates to
Beirut
Naharnet/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Iran sent to Beirut the hundreds of tons of ammonium nitrate that detonated in
August 2020 at the port of Beirut causing the world's biggest non-nuclear
explosion, according to a report by the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya's Al-Hadath TV.
Al-Hadath said it has learned from unnamed sources that Iran had sent the
shipment to the ports of Poti and Batumi in Georgia through Azerbaijan, then to
Madagascar instead of Beirut in an attempt to "cover-up" the transfer.
From Madagascar the shipment arrived to "its main destination, the port
of Beirut, where Hizbullah stored the ammonium nitrate along with rockets,"
Al-Hadath said. "Some quantity of the ammonium nitrate
was smuggled to Syria, another was used to make rockets," the report added. The
report stressed the Iranian presence in Azerbaijan, accusing Iran of forming a
Shiite militia there, called Huseynyun. It also said that Iran's intelligence
agencies heavily control the ports of Poti and Batumi in Georgia.
Bukhari Affirms 'Deep' Ties with Lebanon During Visit to
Tripoli
Beirut /Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
The Saudi Ambassador to Lebanon Walid Al Bukhari made a visit to Lebanon’s
northern city of Tripoli where he affirmed the strong ties between Lebanon, its
people and Saudi Arabia. Bukhari met in Tripoli with several of the city’s
religious leaders. He stressed the “deep relations with Lebanon and its people.”
In Tripoli, Bukhari met with Acting Mufti of Tripoli and the North Sheikh
Mohamed Imam, the former Mufti Sheikh Malik al-Shaar, the Maronite Archbishop of
Tripoli Bishop Youssef Soueif, and the Metropolitan of Tripoli, Koura and their
dependencies Archbishop Ephrem Kyriakos. Earlier, Bukhari had met with Lebanese
PM Najib Mikati at the Grand Serail in Beirut.
Lebanese Security Forces Intensify Measures in Hezbollah
Stronghold Following Spike in Crime
Beirut - Nazeer Rida/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Lebanon’s security forces carried out a series of raids in Beirut's southern
suburbs of Dahieh, the strongholds of the Shiite Hezbollah party and Amal
movement, following complaints by the local population over the security
situation. The security forces arrested dozens of individuals, who are wanted
for theft, armed robbery and drug trafficking. Pickpocketing and theft of
motorcycles and mobile phones have increased dramatically in recent months,
forcing the suburbs’ residents to restrict their movement especially during
nighttime. In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, a resident said she “hesitates to go
out at night to the markets to buy Eid al-Fitr necessities, due to fears of
being robbed.”The people of the district resorted to a sort of self-security
plan, with social media sites posting videos showing residents catching and
beating a person who tried to steal a motorcycle, before handing him over to the
state security forces. In view of the wide popular discontent, a security
campaign was launched last week, with the participation of the Lebanese Army,
the Interior Security Forces (ISF), State Security and General Security. The
residents of the suburbs have expressed some relief at the recent deployment of
security forces in the streets. Member of Amal's Development and Liberation
bloc, MP Fadi Alama said calls on the state to impose security measures in
Dahieh "had never ceased." He noted that the measures loosened as Lebanon
plunged deeper in crisis, leading to a rise in crime. Representatives of
Hezbollah, Amal, security agencies and the military held a recent meeting to
activate the role of the agencies in Dahieh, deploying patrols around the clock
and setting up checkpoints in various locations, said a joint statement by
Hezbollah and Amal. Lebanese sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the security
services were cracking down and arresting people based on data collected from
street cameras, and other security information that proves their involvement
armed robberies, shootings, drug trafficking and other illegal acts.
Carlos Ghosn 'Surprised' by Reports of French
International Arrest Warrant
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Carlos Ghosn, the former car executive at the helm of Renault and Nissan, was
"surprised" by earlier media reports which stated that French prosecutors had
issued an international arrest warrant for him, said a spokesperson for Ghosn.
"This is surprising, Ghosn has always co-operated with French authorities," a
spokesperson for Ghosn told Reuters. The spokesperson for Ghosn was reacting
after the Wall Street Journal and French media reported that French prosecutors
had issued an international arrest warrant for Ghosn. An investigating
magistrate issued five international arrest warrants against Ghosn and the
current owners or former directors of the Omani company Suhail Bahwan
Automobiles, a vehicle distributor in Oman, the prosecutor’s office in the Paris
suburb of Nanterre said to The Wall Street Journal. They allege Ghosn funneled
millions of dollars of Renault funds through the Omani car distributor for his
personal use, including for the purchase of a 120-foot yacht. The local
prosecutor for Nanterre could not be immediately reached for comment. Ghosn told
Reuters in an interview last year that he was prepared for a lengthy process to
clear his name with French authorities, and vowed to challenge an Interpol
warrant that is barring him from travel outside of Lebanon.
Sudden exchange rate turmoil angers Lebanese ahead of
parliamentary elections
Najia Houssari/Arab News/April 22, 2022
BEIRUT: A sudden upheaval in Lebanon's exchange rate has angered people ahead of
parliamentary elections. Economist Louis Hobeika said
the turmoil should motivate people to “vote for change and not re-elect those in
power.” He told Arab News that the ruling parties had
all the time they needed to issue laws but did nothing.
The Lebanese pound hit a sudden low, trading at LBP28,000 to the dollar
on Friday, with the country on official holidays until Tuesday for Orthodox
Easter. The exchange rate turmoil caused a clamor in
the markets, as people said on social media that shop owners had already started
pricing goods based on a rate of LBP30,000 to the dollar.
Protesters cut off the southern highway with burning tires, denouncing
the deteriorating living conditions, Lebanon’s National News agency reported.
Electricite du Liban, the state-owned electricity supplier, said on
Thursday that the Deir Ammar power plant had shut down. The Zahrani power plant
shut down last week, leaving the Lebanese with no electricity supply until a
ship carrying a fuel delivery is unloaded and tested.
Subscription fees for private generators that are charged in dollars continue to
rise. The two plants depend exclusively on Iraqi fuel
as part of an agreement concluded between the two countries last August.
The state is unable to secure dollars to import additional quantities of
fuel, while the agreement to draw electricity from Jordan and gas from Egypt is
yet to be implemented. According to the agreement with
Iraq, every month only one shipment of 40,000 tons of gas oil is supplied to
Lebanon, for the benefit of EDL.
The agreement expires in September, and EDL had pledged to ensure “a minimum
level of stability in electricity supply, until May 18,” that is after the
parliamentary elections on May 15. Lebanon was
supposed to start importing electricity and gas from Jordan and Egypt in March,
but the implementation was delayed due to the World Bank's failure to finance
the two agreements. Energy Minister Walid Fayyad said
he had not been officially notified by the World Bank of the decision to delay
funding. “We are constantly contacting the World Bank
and the US ambassador to Lebanon, Dorothy Shea, and her French counterpart Anne
Grillo, and the ball is now in the court of the US administration and the World
Bank to begin formal negotiations, which is an essential stage for financing,”
Fayyad said on Thursday. On Friday, the US-based
Al-Hurra TV channel quoted a State Department spokesperson as saying that the
government was awaiting final contracts and financing terms from the parties to
ensure the gas and electricity projects complied with US policy and address any
potential sanctions concerns. Egyptian gas will be
pumped to Lebanon via Jordan as well as Syria, which is subject to US sanctions
under the Caesar Act. Hobeika said the “political
confusion and failure to find solutions to the problems at hand, naturally leads
to chaos again.” He added that all signs indicated
that Lebanon was further deteriorating, including the value of the national
currency. “There is a clear political inability to
find solutions and deal with reality, and the best evidence is the chaos and
sub-standard effort that happened in the Parliament session that was held to
discuss the capital control bill. “We are only three
weeks away from the parliamentary elections, and such discussions should be
postponed until the elections are held. Until then, chaos will prevail, and the
national currency will further depreciate.“This is due to the bad impression the
ruling authority has left, which will increase demand for the dollar. The worst
thing the ruling parties are doing is trying to outsmart the International
Monetary Fund. They claim they are working on reforms, but things have remained
the same. Reform needs laws, and such laws don't exist yet in Lebanon.”
Salam signs final report of negotiations with World Bank
to secure wheat
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Following extensive meetings, the Ministries of Economy, Trade and Finance
concluded a round of negotiations with the World Bank, headed by Minister of
Economy and Trade Amin Salam, to draft a law accepting an emergency loan of $150
million for the purchase of wheat, in light of the crises that have negatively
impacted the availability of this commodity, including the Russian-Ukrainian war
and the monetary situation of the dollar in Lebanon. The program aims to secure
stable quantities required for national consumption while maintaining their
price.
Minister Salam has signed the final report of the negotiations, and after
obtaining the approval of the World Bank Board of Directors, the legal process
of this dossier will be finalized by the Council of Ministers and the concerned
authorities, in preparation for referring the project to the Parliament Council.
"We appreciate the World Bank for its quick response to support Lebanon in this
difficult stage it is going through, particularly over the issue of food
security," Salam said. He considered that amidst the
enormous challenges faced by Lebanon and the Lebanese, any harm to the citizen’s
food security and daily bread cannot be tolerated. “We will do everything
necessary to protect and secure bread as a strategic commodity, and we are also
working on several programs with other international parties that we will
announce successively,” the Economy Minister added, describing the overall
atmosphere as “positive”.
Director of Al-Zahrani Plant: Deir Ammar, Al-Zahrani plants
to resume operations upcoming Tuesday/Wednesday
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Director of Al-Zahrani Thermal Plant Ahmad Abbas indicated today that "the
tonnage of the incoming fuel ships is less than the consumption capacity of Deir
Ammar and Al-Zahrani plants, for each plant needs 60,000 tons per month."
"It is expected that the two plants will return to work by next
Tuesday-Wednesday," he added, stressing that "the fuel crisis continues and the
issue is related to the fresh dollar,” regretting that the current Electricity
de Liban power production is “zero hours."
Protesters block Al-Zahrani Highway with burning tires
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Al-Zahrani highway, at the Sarafand town junction, was cut off a short while ago
with burning tires, as angry citizens expressed their condemnation of the
deteriorating living conditions in the country,” NNA correspondent reported.
Nassar represents President Aoun at the inauguration of the
‘Phoenician Museum’ in Jounieh: Affiliation with the Council of Europe denotes
the inclusion of Lebanon on the Mediterranean tourism map
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
The "Phoenician Museum" was inaugurated today in Jounieh’s old market area
during a ceremony held at the municipality premises, which coincided with
Lebanon’s second day celebration for being the 35th member state of the
“Expanded Partial Agreement on Cultural Paths of the Council of Europe.”
The inauguration was held under the patronage of President Michel Aoun,
represented by Tourism Minister Walid Nassar, in presence of Culture Minister
Mohamed Al-Mortada, and Agriculture Minister Abbas El-Hajj Hassan, represented
by the Agriculture Ministry Director General Louis Lahoud, alongside a crowd of
dignitaries from the region. In his word on the
occasion, Minister Nassar said: "We celebrate Lebanon's affiliation with the
Partial Agreement on the Cultural Paths of the Council of Europe. Many ask,
especially in light of the economic situation, about the outcome or the basic
elements that can help the citizen as a result of this affiliation. Therefore, I
would like to say, first: that the Executive Body of the Council of Europe is
present in Lebanon, and we are the 35th member and the only non-European country
in this Council. This practically means that Lebanon has become today on the
Mediterranean tourism map. Previously, all the tour operators in Europe who were
working on plans to walk the four paths: Phoenician, Umayyad, Wine and Olive
tree, used to arrive in Cyprus, Greece and Turkey without continuing to Lebanon.
Today, Lebanon's affiliation with this Council has given more scope for these
international organizers to contract with Lebanese tour operators so that our
country becomes part of these trips."Nassar added that "this project is in
partnership and cooperation between the Ministries of Tourism and Culture, and
the affiliation came according to a decree that we worked on together.”
“We are carrying out vital projects that will directly affect the economic
wheel," he said. “The work of the Ministry of Tourism is not limited to the
capital and the main cities, but we have to go to remote and rural villages,
especially since after the Corona pandemic, we saw how domestic tourism has
become more active,” Nassar went on, referring to plans to launch sustainable
tourism for the city and district of Batroun, similar to Byblos.
“Despite the modest capabilities of the Ministry of Tourism, yet with the
enormous human resources we can carry out sustainable projects,” he added,
stressing that “the Tourism Ministry is not only the restaurant, hotel and
travel agency, knowing that these are very important parts of the tourism
sector, but we always strive to think of a sustainable and strategic policy for
all regions, thus helping citizens by creating job opportunities for them.”
Referring to the underway preparations for the upcoming visit of Pope Francis to
Lebanon on June 12 and 13, the Tourism Minister said: "He is the fourth Pope to
visit Lebanon since 1964, whereby the last visit was in 2012. We know that we
are not the only ones who will receive the Pope, all the Lebanese in neighboring
countries and expatriates will come to welcome and meet him as well, and this
means that all car rental companies, hotels, guest houses and travel agencies,
tour guides will be at work, and I invite all individuals, institutions,
charities, spiritual and ecclesiastical associations who would like to provide
assistance in preparing and organizing the visit, to approach our offices at the
Ministry." As for the parliamentary elections, Nassar
said: “The elections, God willing, will take place and a new parliament will
emerge...We hope that the summer will be heated with a new parliament, followed
by the presidential elections on time,” asserting that the cabinet views these
constitutional entitlements as “sacred”. For his part,
the Minister of Culture said: "Today, we assure future generations that the
legacy of that ancient civilization made by our ancestors will not remain in
ruins on deserted beaches, but will from now on become a guest of the
‘Phoenician Museum’, the foundation of which we celebrate today in the
municipality of Jounieh.”Minister Mortada recalled the many valuable
contributions made by the Phoenicians to civilization, saying: “In fact, they
gave a lot to civilization in its physical and spiritual appearance. Although
they did not establish a central state with unified authorities, their
commercial authority spread over the waves of the Mediterranean, and crossed
them through the Pillars of Hercules, i.e. the Strait of Gibraltar, to the Sea
of Darkness, i.e. the Atlantic Ocean, and studies indicate that they even
reached Brazil and knew America several centuries before Christopher
Columbus...”The Culture Minister regretted that such a “cosmic state” with
greatly significant contributions to the history of our civilized world, a
nation capable of being a point of intersection of cultures and the birthplace
of civilizations, would grieve a lot today seeing its children reminiscing about
its past and neglecting its future, as they launch calls that are far from their
unison. Minister Mortada concluded by stating that the
Phoenicians did not cross the sea by individuals, but rather their men from all
the sea cities intertwined and set sail together. He thus stressed that by being
united, we will be worthy of this country and proud of leaving it to our
children as a free, independent and sovereign nation. .
Sami
Gemayel: We will hold accountable all those who killed the Lebanese, squandered
their money & the money of their children
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Kataeb Party Chief, Sami Gemayel, stressed that the biggest challenge is to hold
accountable those who brought the country to its current status, squandered 70
billion dollars that cannot be compensated, blew up the port of Beirut and
assassinated our people for the past 15 years. He
referred to the endeavor to "form a political force completely independent of
the system in the next parliament, to form a broad, legitimate and elected
opposition bloc, which includes non-submissive MPs who stand in the face of
Hezbollah and the system and are committed to accountability until the last
breath, to find out where the billions were wasted and who smuggled money abroad
while the Lebanese suffer destitute and hunger, and how millions were wasted on
failed projects of electricity ships, dams and sea landfills.”“The Lebanese have
the right to know where their money and the money of their children have gone,”
Gemayel said. His words came during a dinner banquet held in honor of the mayors
of the northern Metn region, attended by members of the "Metn Change" ballot
list. Gemayel stressed that "the goal is to change the class whose decisions led
us to the catastrophe we are in, and to change the approach through which the
country is run, seeking to present people who have proven that they are working
in the interest of the country." He called for "considering these elections as
pivotal” and that “voting should come after evaluating the candidate in
accordance to his/her performance for the past years.”“It is not considered an
achievement to be in successive governments and later join the opposition after
October 17, but rather to oppose from the moment the country is handed over to
Hezbollah and voting on delusional budgets," Gemayel underlined. He reiterated
that “holding candidates accountable is the key to democratic practice, and it
is a step that the majority of the Northern Metn voters must take, and they will
not be affected by the electoral money that is spent unconsciously. They will
vote based on their convictions and they will be able to change a lot...”
Makhzoumi confers with Pakistani Ambassador over bilateral
relations
NNA/Friday, 22 April, 2022
MP Fouad Makhzoumi said via Twitter today that he was "honored to receive the
newly accredited Pakistani Ambassador to Lebanon, Salman Atar, and his deputy,
Mr. Amanullah, in the presence of Political Adviser Carol Zwein and Ambassador
Bassam Naamani."Makhzoumi congratulated Ambassador Atar on assuming his new
duties in Lebanon, with discussions touching on ways of strengthening
Lebanese-Pakistani relations and developing them for the benefit of both
countries.
The Latest English LCCC Miscellaneous
Reports And News published on April 22-23/2022
Pope Says June Meeting with Russian Orthodox
Patriarch is Off
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Plans for Pope Francis to meet in June with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill,
who has backed Russia's war in Ukraine, have been suspended, the pope has told
an Argentine newspaper. Reuters reported on April 11 that the Vatican was
considering extending the pope's trip to Lebanon on June 12-13 by a day so that
he could meet with Kirill on June 14 in Jerusalem. A Vatican source familiar
with the planning for the Jerusalem stop said on Friday that it had been at an
advanced stage, with even the location for the meeting chosen. Francis told La
Nacion in an interview that he regretted that the plan had to be "suspended"
because Vatican diplomats advised that such a meeting "could lend itself to such
confusion at this moment". It would have been only their second meeting. Their
first, in Cuba in 2016, was the first between a pope and a leader of the Russian
Orthodox Church since the Great Schism that split Christianity into Eastern and
Western branches in 1054. Kirill, 75, has given his full-throated blessing for
Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a position that has splintered the worldwide
Orthodox Church and unleashed an internal rebellion that theologians and
academics say is unprecedented. The 85-year-old Francis has several times
implicitly criticized Russia and President Vladimir Putin over the war, using
terms such as unjustified aggression and invasion and lamenting atrocities
against civilians. Asked in the interview why he has never named Russia or Putin
specifically, Francis was quoted as saying: "A pope never names a head of state,
much less a country, which is superior to its head of state". Putin, a member of
the Russian Orthodox Church, has described Moscow's actions as a "special
military operation" in Ukraine designed not to occupy territory but to
demilitarize and "denazify" the country. But Francis has specifically rejected
that terminology, saying it was a war that has caused "rivers of blood". Francis
said earlier this month that he was considering a trip to Kyiv, telling
reporters on the flight to Malta on April 2 that it was "on the table". He has
been invited by Ukrainian political and religious leaders. Asked in the
Argentine interview why he has not gone so far, he said: "I cannot do anything
that would jeopardize higher objectives, which are an end to the war, a truce or
at least a humanitarian corridor. What good would it do for the pope to go to
Kyiv if the war continues the next day?"
Iran Claims Arresting 3 Mossad Spies
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Iran’s intelligence ministry said it had arrested three Mossad spies, according
to a statement published by the semi-official Fars news agency. The statement
did not specify the nationalities of the Israeli Intelligence agency's spies but
it mentioned they were arrested in Iran’s southeastern Iranian province of
Sistan-Baluchestan. In January, Israel said it had broken up an Iranian spy ring
that recruited Israeli women via social media to photograph sensitive sites,
gather intelligence and encourage their sons to join Israeli military
intelligence. In July, Iran said it arrested members of an armed group linked to
Mossad after they sneaked into Iran across its western border.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards Reject US Proposals to Drop
Plans to Avenge Soleimani Killing
London, Tehran - Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Iran will not abandon plans to avenge the 2020 US killing of al-Quds Force
commander Qassem Soleimani, despite "regular offers" from Washington to lift
sanctions and provide other concessions in return, said a top Iranian official.
A State Department spokesperson told Reuters that if Iran wanted sanctions
relief beyond the 2015 nuclear deal, it must address US concerns beyond the
pact. "If Iran wants sanctions lifting that goes beyond the JCPOA, they will
need to address concerns of ours beyond the JCPOA," the US spokesperson said,
referring to the deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
"Conversely, if they do not want to use these talks to resolve other bilateral
issues beyond the JCPOA, then we are confident that we can very quickly reach an
understanding of the JCPOA and begin reimplementing the deal.""Iran needs to
make a decision," the spokesperson added. He stated that under any return to the
JCPOA, the US would retain and aggressively use its powerful tools to address
Iran's destabilizing activities and its support for terrorism and terrorist
proxies, especially to counter the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Al-Quds
Force is the foreign espionage and paramilitary arm of the IRGC that controls
its allied militia abroad. The Trump administration put the IRGC on the State
Department's Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list in 2019, the first time
Washington formally labeled another nation's military a terrorist group. The
IRGC's Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri said Iran's foes relayed a message that
if Tehran gave up revenge for Soleiman's killing, then "we will give that
concession and lift sanctions," reported Iran's state-run ISNA news agency. He
dismissed such hopes a "wishful thinking."Tangsiri said both Iran's Supreme
Leader Ali Khamenei and IRGC Commander Maj-Gen Hossein Salami are insistent on
avenging the assassination, but "we decide on its place and time."Last week, NBC
News reported that Iran rejected the proposal and responded about two weeks ago
with a counter-proposal, which remains unclear. The Biden administration has yet
to respond formally to the Iranian counter-proposal, the sources told the
channel. Reuters quoted an Iranian diplomatic source as saying that Tehran
rejected a US proposal to overcome this point by keeping the al-Quds Force
sanctioned while removing the IRGC, as an entity, from the list. Axios quoted US
and Israeli sources last month that Iran had rejected a US proposal to
de-escalate in the region in return for removing the Guards from the FTO list.
Last Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the
fundamental principle in Iran's foreign policy was formed after the cowardly
assassination. "The action taken by the perpetrators and advisers of this
cowardly act will not go unpunished."
Iran: Teachers Demand Fair Wages, Better Working Conditions
London -Tehran/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Teachers in Iran marched in several cities, including Tehran, to demand fair
wages, better working conditions, and the release of their jailed colleagues.
The Iranian Teachers Unions Coordination Committee stated that teachers
organized protests in front of the education departments' headquarters in about
50 Iranian cities. The committee's spokesman, Mohammad Habibi, wrote on Twitter
that the security forces had arrested 70 teachers in Tehran. The committee said
that due to the security measures in Qarni Street, the security forces prevented
gatherings and arrested about 40 teachers, and transferred them to a detention
center. One of the detainees was an 80-year-old retired teacher. Later, a
spokesman announced that the authorities released all 70 detained teachers. In
its statement, the Coordinating Committee demanded the immediate release of all
detainees and the dismissal of the minister of education. Earlier this week, an
Iranian court convicted and sentenced Rasoul Badaghi, a member of the teachers'
union, to five years in prison and banned him from residing in the capital,
Tehran, or its neighboring provinces. Badaghi was arrested last November after
participating in a protest. He is among the former detainees of the Green
Movement protests against electoral fraud in the 2009 presidential elections.
Badaghi was convicted in September 2009 and sentenced to six years in prison on
charges of "propaganda against the regime." The government and the parliament
are facing criticism from lawmakers for their inability to curb price hikes.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf blamed the
previous government for the price hike. Teachers chanted slogans against
Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
Ghalibaf is facing criticism after photos of his wife, daughter, and son-in-law
showed them at Istanbul airport. The pictures were taken after an issue between
the airline crew and Ghalibaf's daughter, who insisted on passing a shipment
consisting of the baby's clothing. Ghalibaf's eldest son, Elias, wrote on his
Instagram account that the trip was undoubtedly an "unforgivable wrongdoing"
given the economic conditions of the people, but he denied reports that the
visit was to buy baby supplies. The IRGC's Fars news agency said that the
Ghalibaf family's visit to Turkey was not to buy baby supplies, asserting that
the Speaker opposed his family's travel. The reformist "Ibtikar" newspaper
published a cartoon of the Speaker, while another daily demanded Ghalibaf to
submit his resignation. The case even divided the Speaker's allies, and his
media advisor criticized what he described as including the "children's mistakes
in the parents' record." A video circulated online of a televised debate between
Ghalibaf and former President Hassan Rouhani during the 2017 presidential
elections. During the debate, Ghalibaf blamed Rouhani after a minister's
daughter imported children's clothing from Italy.
UN Rights Office Cites Growing Evidence of War Crimes in
Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
The United Nations human rights office sounded the alarm on Friday about growing
evidence of war crimes in Ukraine, urging both Moscow and Kyiv to order
combatants to respect international law. "Russian armed forces have
indiscriminately shelled and bombed populated areas, killing civilians and
wrecking hospitals, schools and other civilian infrastructure, actions that may
amount to war crimes," the office of UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)
Michelle Bachelet said. UN human rights monitors in Ukraine have also documented
what appeared to be the use of weapons with indiscriminate effects, causing
civilian casualties, by Ukrainian armed forces in the east of the country, OHCHR
said in a statement. Russia, which describes its incursion as a "special
military operation" to disarm and "denazify" Ukraine, denies targeting civilians
or committing any such war crimes. The OHCHR said that from the start of the war
on Feb. 24 until April 20, monitors in Ukraine had verified 5,264 civilian
casualties - 2,345 killed and 2,919 injured. Of these, 92.3% were recorded in
government-controlled territory. Some 7.7% of casualties were recorded in the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions controlled by Russian armed forces and affiliated
armed groups, it added. "We know the actual numbers are going to be much higher
as the horrors inflicted in areas of intense fighting, such as Mariupol, come to
light, Bachelet said. "The scale of summary executions of civilians in areas
previously occupied by Russian forces are also emerging. The preservation of
evidence and decent treatment of mortal remains must be ensured, as well as
psychological and other relief for victims and their relatives," she added.
During a mission to Bucha on April 9, UN human rights officers documented the
unlawful killing, including by summary execution, of around 50 civilians, it
said. They have received more than 300 allegations of killings of civilians in
the regions of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy, all under the control of
Russian armed forces in late February and early March, it added.
Russia Pushes Offensive, Collects Corpses in ‘Liberated’
Mariupol
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Russia pressed its new offensive in eastern Ukraine on Friday while in the port
city of Mariupol, teams of volunteers collected corpses from the ruins after
Moscow declared victory there despite Ukrainian forces holding out. Ukraine's
general staff said Russian forces had increased attacks along the whole
frontline in the east of the country and were trying to mount an offensive in
the Kharkiv region, north of Russia's main target, the Donbas. A senior Russian
military commander said Moscow aimed to seize all of southern Ukraine, far more
expansive war aims than Moscow has lately trumpeted, and the latest sign that
Moscow may not relent after its latest campaign in the east. Russia says it has
won the battle of Mariupol, the biggest fight of the war, having taken a
decision not to try to root out thousands of Ukrainian troops still holed up in
a huge steel works that takes up much of the center of the city. Kyiv says
100,000 civilians are still inside the city, and need full evacuation. It says
Moscow's decision not to storm the Azovstal steel works is proof that Russia
lacks the forces to defeat the Ukrainian defenders. In a Russian-held section of
the city, the guns had largely fallen silent and dazed looking residents
ventured out on streets on Wednesday to a background of charred apartment blocks
and wrecked cars. Some carried suitcases and household items. Volunteers in
white hazmat suits and masks roved the ruins, collecting bodies from inside
apartments and loading them on to a truck marked with the letter "Z", symbol of
Russia's invasion. Maxar, a commercial satellite company, said images from space
showed freshly dug mass graves on the city's outskirts. Ukraine estimates tens
of thousands of civilians died in the city during nearly two months of Russian
bombardment and siege. The United Nations and Red Cross say the civilian toll is
still unknowable but at least in the thousands. Russia denies targeting
civilians and says it has rescued the city from nationalists. In Zaporizhzhia,
where 79 Mariupol residents arrived in the first convoy of buses permitted by
Russia to leave for other parts of Ukraine, Valentyna Andrushenko held back
tears as she recalled the ordeal under siege. "They (Russians) were bombing us
from day one. They are demolishing everything. Just erase it," she said of the
city. Kyiv said no new evacuations were planned for Friday. Moscow says it has
taken 140,000 Mariupol residents to Russia; Kyiv says many of those were
deported by force in what would be a war crime. The city's mayor, Vadym
Boichenko, who is no longer inside Mariupol, said: "We need only one thing - the
full evacuation of the population. About 100,000 people remain in Mariupol."
Continues to resist
Western countries believe President Vladimir Putin is desperate to demonstrate a
victory after his forces were defeated last month in an attempt to capture the
capital Kyiv. In a late-night address, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy
said Russia was doing all it could "to talk about at least some victories".
"They can only postpone the inevitable - the time when the invaders will have to
leave our territory, including from Mariupol, a city that continues to resist
Russia regardless of what the occupiers say," Zelenskiy said. Abandoning the
effort to defeat the last Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol - Donbas's main port -
frees up more Russian troops for the main military effort, an assault from
several directions on the towns of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, to cut off the main
Ukrainian military force in the east. While Russia now says its focus is on
separatist-claimed areas in the east, the deputy commander of Russia's central
military district, Rustam Minnekayev, was quoted by state media as saying Moscow
aimed to seize all of southern Ukraine. He described a goal as linking up with
Transdnistria, a Russian-occupied breakaway part of Moldova, which is on
Ukraine's southwestern border, hundreds of miles beyond the furthest Russian
advance so far. British military intelligence reported heavy fighting in the
east as Russian forces tried to advance on settlements, but said the Russians
were suffering from losses sustained early in the war and were sending equipment
back to Russia for repair. Russia calls its invasion a "special military
operation" to demilitarize and "denazify" Ukraine. Kyiv and its Western allies
reject that as a false pretext for a war that has killed thousands and uprooted
a quarter of Ukraine's population. The United States authorized another $800
million in military aid for Ukraine on Thursday, including heavy artillery and
newly disclosed "Ghost" drones that are destroyed after they attack their
targets. "We're in a critical window now of time where they're going to set the
stage for the next phase of this war," US President Joe Biden said.
Russia will be a 'pariah state in the eyes of many people
forever' and there'll be no 'starting over' while Putin is still in charge,
expert says
Erin Snodgrass,Kelsey Vlamis/Business Insider/April 22/2022
President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine has upended Russia's international and
domestic affairs.Reports suggest concerns about the invasion are growing even
within the Kremlin."It's suicidally bad what he's doing to his country" and "its
standing in the world," an expert said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing animosity both abroad and
at home as his war in Ukraine approaches two full months. Experts cite strategy
failures, mounting military losses, and the dire economic consequences of
Western sanctions — all blamed almost entirely on Putin — as evidence painting a
bleak picture of Russia's future. "It's suicidally bad what he's doing to his
country, its economy, and its standing in the world," said Robert English, a
professor at the University of Southern California who studies Russia, the
Soviet Union, and Eastern Europe.
The longtime Russian leader's decisions on the Ukraine invasion face rising
scrutiny as a small but growing number of Kremlin insiders have started to
express doubts about the war. Ten sources with direct knowledge of the conflict
conveyed their concerns to Bloomberg this month, saying they regarded the
invasion as a catastrophic mistake that'd set the country back decades. The
report described the critics as spread across senior positions in government and
state-run businesses.
While Putin continues to present a confident front — hand-waving the true cost
of Western sanctions and dismissing the political consequences of war — some
Russia insiders are said to be losing faith. English says they have good reason
to do so. He said Putin's foray into Ukraine had already proved more costly for
Russia than the Soviet Union's nearly 10-year war in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
"The USSR lost around 15,000-plus soldiers in Afghanistan in a decade of
fighting," English said. "And that was enough to be considered a 'bleeding
wound,"' he added. "Putin has lost close to that amount in one month — not one
year, much less 10 years — but in one month.""So, his reckoning is coming much
more quickly," English added.
Moscow acknowledged in late March — its most recent update — that 1,351 of its
troops had been killed and 3,825 others wounded in the invasion. NATO estimates
put the likely death toll closer to 15,000, while Ukraine says it has killed
nearly 20,000 Russian troops.
But the cost of Putin's war goes beyond the battlefield
Ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the economic pinch of tough Western
sanctions. Putin has conceded that sanctions have started to upset the country's
energy industry but has publicly maintained that Russia's economy has not been
undermined as a result.
The head of Russia's central bank, however, warned that the full impact of
sanctions had not yet been felt, and Moscow's mayor said this week that 200,000
residents could lose their jobs with Western companies pulling out of the
country en masse.
"He's set the country back economically," English said. "It's losing all of its
important trade ties and its resource customers in the West."The European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development estimated last month that Russia's gross
domestic product — a popular measure of the size of an ecomony — would shrink by
10% this year. Even as Russia readjusts its military strategy, pulling back from
the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, and focusing attacks on eastern Ukraine as part of
its "new phase" of the war, English said the damage to Russia's international
and domestic standing had already been done.
"Russia will be a pariah state in the eyes of many people forever — but at least
for a decade to come," he said. "Until Putin goes, there'll be no sense of
cleansing and starting over."But experts and insiders have also said Putin is
unlikely to go anywhere anytime soon. Bloomberg's sources said Putin viewed
himself as being on a historic mission — one he is said to believe has the
Russian public's support.
Mariupol 'continues to resist', Ukrainian president says
Agence France Presse/April 21/ 2022
The devastated city of Mariupol "continues to resist" despite Russian claims to
have captured it, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday as he
welcomed fresh US aid to help confront Moscow's eastern offensive.
Russia says it has "liberated" the city, with just a few thousand
Ukrainian soldiers left in the Azovstal plant complex, where thousands more
civilians are also believed to have taken refuge. But
Zelensky said the battle was continuing, with Russia "doing everything to have a
reason to talk about at least some victories." "They
can only delay the inevitable -- the time when the invaders will have to leave
our territory, in particular Mariupol, a city that continues to resist Russia,
despite everything the occupiers say," he said in a video address.
The southern port city has been the target of relentless Russian attacks
as Moscow tries to create a land bridge connecting annexed Crimea and the
Russian-based separatist statelets in the Donbas region.
Ukrainian officials have appealed for an immediate humanitarian corridor
to allow civilians and wounded fighters to leave the sprawling Azovstal steel
plant. "They have almost no food, water, essential
medicine," Ukraine's foreign ministry said. On
Thursday, three school buses carrying evacuees arrived in the city of
Zaporizhzhia after leaving Mariupol and crossing through Russian-held territory.
"I don't want to hear any more bombing," said Tatiana Dorash, 34, who
arrived with her six-year-old son Maxim. She said all
they wanted now was a quiet night and "a bed to sleep in".
Ukrainian officials had hoped to evacuate many more civilians, but accused
Russian forces of targeting a route used by fleeing civilians.
"We apologize to the people of Mariupol who waited for evacuation today
with no result," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshuk said on
Telegram.
"Shelling started near the collection point, which forced the corridor to close.
Dear Mariupol residents... we will not give up trying to get you out of there!
Hold on!"
- Putin hails Mariupol 'liberation' -
Zelenksy said Russia had rejected a proposed truce over the Orthodox Christian
Easter holiday this weekend. And he accused Russia of
laying the groundwork for a referendum to cement its control of areas in eastern
Ukraine, urging locals to avoid giving personal data to Moscow's forces.
"This is aimed to falsify the so-called referendum on your land, if an
order comes from Moscow to stage such a show," he warned.
In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin hailed the "liberation" of Mariupol
as a "success" for Russian forces, and ordered a siege of the Azovstal plant.
"There is no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground
through these industrial facilities. Block off this industrial area so that not
even a fly can escape," Putin said. With Moscow
intensifying its attacks in eastern Ukraine, the West is also stepping up
military aid, including $800 million in new assistance from Washington announced
Thursday by President Joe Biden. The Pentagon said the
package included howitzers, armoured vehicles to tow them, 144,000 rounds of
ammunition, and tactical drones developed by the US Air Force specifically to
address Ukraine's needs. "We're in a critical window
now... where they're going to set the stage for the next phase of this war,"
Biden said, pledging Putin would "never succeed in dominating and occupying all
of Ukraine.""That will not happen," he added. Zelensky
told leaders of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank on Thursday that
his country now needs $7 billion a month to function, accusing Russia of
"destroying all objects in Ukraine that can serve as an economic base for
life."In a fresh show of support meanwhile, the Spanish and Danish prime
ministers visited Kyiv, pledging more military assistance.
And Germany, under fire for not giving more to Zelensky's government,
said it had agreed with eastern European partners to indirectly supply Ukraine
with heavy weapons by replacing stock given to Kyiv.
Efforts to isolate Moscow continued, with Biden announcing a ban on
Russian-affiliated ships using American ports and the Organisation of American
States suspending Russia as a permanent observer.
Moscow announced its new countermeasures, slapping travel bans on US Vice
President Kamala Harris and dozens of other prominent Americans and Canadians.
- 'All being investigated' -
Around the Ukrainian capital meanwhile, the grim task of exhuming and
cataloguing bodies left behind after Russia's withdrawal continued.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, visiting Borodianka near the
capital, said he was "shocked to witness the horror and atrocities of Putin's
war".
Ukrainian officials say the bodies of more than 1,000 civilians have been
retrieved from areas around the capital, and they are working with French
investigators to document alleged war crimes. "It's
all being investigated," Oleksandr Pavliuk, head of the Kyiv regional military
administration told reporters. "There is no final number of civilians killed."
"The forensic experts are now examining the bodies, but what we saw was
hands tied behind the back, their legs tied and shot through the limbs and in
the back of the head," he said. And US private satellite imagery website Maxar
released photos that it said showed a "mass grave" on the northwestern edge of
Manhush, 20 kilometers (12 miles) west of Mariupol.
The violence has displaced more than 7.7 million people internally, with over
five million fleeing to other countries, according to UN estimates, in Europe's
worst refugee crisis since World War II. But returns
have also accelerated in recent weeks, reaching over one million, according to a
spokesman for Kyiv's border force, despite the risk.
In the village of Moshchun, northwest of Kyiv, returnees must sign waivers
acknowledging the risk of death or maiming by leftover munitions.
Olena Klymenko was willing to take the risk and return to the site of her
destroyed home as de-mining efforts continued in the village.
"We found a booby trap in our garden. It seems it was disarmed. We don't
know," she told AFP."Still, we need to look for our stuff."
US intel says Putin believes he is winning the Ukraine war
and the West will give up on trying to isolate him, report says
Tom Porter/Business Insider/April 21/ 2022
Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine, say US intel assessments cited
by the NYT. He may also lash out at the West in unpredictable ways, one US
intelligence official said. Putin had called Wednesday's "Satan 2" missile test
a warning to the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin believes he is winning the war in Ukraine and
that Western resolve to isolate him would crack over time, US intelligence
assessments say, according to The New York Times.
Intelligence assessments delivered to the White House concluded that Putin was
confident of the success of the military campaign despite multiple setbacks
including economic isolation, a high number of Russian casualties, and Russian
troops being driven back from Kyiv by Ukrainian forces, The Times reported,
citing a senior US official. Putin appeared bullish in a public statement on
Monday, claiming that punishing sanctions by the West had failed to
significantly impact the Russian economy. But the head of Russia's central bank
contradicted Putin's assessment that same day, saying the full impact of the
sanctions was yet to be felt. According to the assessments, reported by The
Times, Putin questions the long-term resolve of the West and believes that with
the help of China, India, and other Asian economies, he can avoid full
international isolation and the worst consequences of Western sanctions.
China and India, which have not sided with or against Russia in the Ukraine war,
have continued trading with Russia, thereby softening the blow of Western
sanctions. Putin has also menaced the West with the potential use of force. On
Wednesday, Russia tested its new intercontinental ballistic missile, dubbed
"Satan 2," which Putin said would "provide food for thought to those who in the
heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric try to threaten our country."One senior US
intelligence official told the Times that Putin's isolation may prompt him to
lash out at the West in unpredictable ways.
"We have been so successful in disconnecting Putin from the global system that
he has even more incentive to disrupt it beyond Ukraine," the official said.
"And if he grows increasingly desperate, he may try things that don't seem
rational."
Russia has in recent days refocused its campaign in a renewed assault in the
Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Kremlin insiders told Bloomberg in a Wednesday
report that Putin was not listening from warnings about the political and
economic cost of the conflict and regarded himself as being on an historic
mission in waging war in Ukraine.
Britain, India Call for Immediate Ceasefire in Ukraine
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
India and Britain on Friday called on Russia for an immediate ceasefire in
Ukraine as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced steps to help move New
Delhi away from its dependence on Russia by expanding economic and defense ties.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told reporters that both sides discussed the
situation in Ukraine, underscoring the importance of diplomacy and dialogue to
settle issues. "Both sides also called for a free, open, inclusive and
rule-based order in the Indo-Pacific,'' Modi said an apparent reference to
China's aggressiveness in the region. Johnson switched over to Hindi language to
describe Modi as a "Khaas Dost," or special friend, and said, "Our relations
have never been as strong or as good between us as they are now,´´ Johnson said
Britain will issue an Open General Export License to India, reducing bureaucracy
and shortening delivery times for defense procurement. "This is our first OGEL
in the Indo-Pacific region," he said. Johnson also announced $1.29 billion in
new investments and export deals in areas from software engineering and
artificial intelligence to health, creating almost 11,000 jobs across the United
Kingdom. The two countries are committing up to $96.80 million to roll out
adaptable clean tech innovations from India to the wider Indo-Pacific and
Africa, and working together on international development and girls´ education,
a British High Commission statement said. Soon after his arrival in India on
Thursday, Johnson said he was aware of the close ties that India and Russia have
shared. "We have to reflect that reality. But clearly, I'll be talking about it
to Narendra Modi," he told reporters in Ahmedabad, the capital of western
Gujarat state, where he landed. Modi recently called the situation in Ukraine
"very worrying" and has appealed to both sides for peace. While India has
condemned the killings of civilians in Ukraine, it has so far not criticized
Russian President Vladimir Putin, and abstained when the UN General Assembly
voted this month to suspend Russia from the Human Rights Council. Modi has also
responded coolly to pressure from US President Joe Biden and others to curb
imports of Russian oil in response to the invasion. Johnson said Friday that
"the world faces growing threats from autocratic states which seek to undermine
democracy, choke off free and fair trade and trample on sovereignty." "Our
collaboration on the issues that matter to both our countries, from climate
change to energy security and defense, is of vital importance as we look to the
future,'' he said. The British High Commission statement said Britain is
offering next-generation defense and security collaboration across five domains
- land, sea, air, space and cyber - to face complex new threats. This includes
support for new Indian-designed and -built fighter jets, offering the best of
British know-how on building aircraft. Britain will also seek to support India's
requirements for new technology to identify and respond to threats in the Indian
Ocean, the statement said. Johnson said he and Modi also discussed new
cooperation on clean and renewable energy, aimed at supporting India's energy
transition away from imported oil and increasing its resilience through secure
and sustainable energy. India receives relatively little of its oil from Russia,
but ramped up purchases recently because of discounted prices. India is a major
buyer of Russian weapons, and recently purchased advanced Russian air defense
systems.
Erdogan Says Plans Calls with Putin, Zelenskiy for Leaders'
Meeting
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday he was planning to hold phone
calls with his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in the coming days, adding
that he hoped the calls could lead to a leaders' meeting in Turkey to end the
Russia-Ukraine war. NATO member Turkey shares a maritime border with Ukraine and
Russia in the Black Sea, has good ties with both, and has taken a mediating
role. It has hosted talks between the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers in
Antalya, and negotiators from both countries in Istanbul, while pushing for a
leaders' meeting. "We are not without hope," Erdogan told reporters when asked
about the peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. "Our friends will get in touch
with them today, we plan to hold a call again with (Russian President Vladimir)
Putin and (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskiy today or tomorrow," he said.
"With the calls, we plan to carry the process in Istanbul to the leaders'
level," he added.
Two PKK-Linked Groups behind Attacks in Turkey, Says
Minister
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Two far-leftist groups with alleged links to the Kurdish militant group PKK
carried out two bombings in Turkey this week, Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu
said on Friday. A prison guard was killed in an explosion that hit a bus in
Turkey's northwestern province of Bursa on Wednesday. A day later, an attacker
placed a bomb in Istanbul's Gaziosmanpasa district outside the offices of a
non-governmental organization. "We identified the perpetrators of both attacks,
in Bursa and Istanbul. They are affiliated with two organizations subcontracting
for the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party)," Soylu told broadcaster NTV in an
interview. He said the MLKP and the DKP-BOG - groups that are banned in Turkey
for alleged links to the PKK had carried out the attacks. Although attacks have
declined sharply in recent years, similar actions have been carried out in the
past by Kurdish, leftist and Islamist militants. On Monday, Turkey announced the
start of a new ground and air campaign in northern Iraq, targeting PKK
militants. Dubbed Operation Claw-Lock, Ankara says the offensive is a measure to
prevent the PKK from using Iraq as a base to carry out attacks in Turkey. The
PKK is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and
the European Union and launched its insurgency for Kurdish self-rule in 1984.
More than 40,000 people have been killed in its conflict with the Turkish state.
Turkey Might Cooperate with Assad without Recognizing Him
Ankara - Saeed Abdulrazzak/Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Turkey said it was possible to cooperate with the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad,
on issues of terrorism and migrants without recognizing him. Turkey is
cooperating with Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq to secure Syrian refugees' voluntary
and safe return. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that his country
does not recognize the Taliban in Afghanistan but is cooperating with it to
prevent the spread of terrorists and the arrival of more immigrants. Cavusoglu
stressed, in a television interview, that his country supports the unity of the
Syrian territory, noting that the Syrian army has recently started fighting the
People's Protection Units, the most significant component of the Syrian
Democratic Forces (SDF), which he said, "plans to divide Syria." Turkey
classifies the Kurdish units as a terrorist organization and has recently
escalated its attacks against the SDF in northeastern Syria. The minister
announced that the intelligence services of both countries had met previously to
discuss security issues. He added that the European Union and the United Nations
High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) are currently holding meetings with the
Syrian government to resolve the issue of the migrants. He stressed that the
crisis must be resolved within international law, and the EU and international
organizations must deal with Assad in this regard. The Assad regime has issued
many amnesty decrees, but it does not guarantee the protection of the returning
Syrians and their basic needs, otherwise, no refugees would remain in Lebanon,
said the minister. The Turkish minister said that his country had started a new
stage to "voluntarily and safely" return refugees to Syria in cooperation with
Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq. The Foreign Minister said they must first ensure the
safety of the Syrians before they are returned to their country and that the
issue of the refugees must be considered from a political, humanitarian, and
social perspective. The Assad regime called on the citizens to return to Syria
despite not being able to provide enough essential services to citizens in the
areas under its control. He denied the possibility of a demographic change in
some states of Turkey due to the presence of Syrian refugees. Turkey hosts more
than 3.7 million Syrians, and the Syrians' issues have topped the country's main
agenda ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June
2023. Several parties and officials, even within the ruling Justice and
Development Party, have increased pressure on the government to begin the safe
return of Syrians to their homeland. Earlier, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
said, "We are not a country that shoots migrants. We embrace them," adding that
the Syrians will want to return to their homes when peace is established, and
the construction of brick homes is completed.
Bloody Fighting between Opposition Factions in
N.Syria in Struggle for Power, Influence
Idlib – Firas Karam/Asharq Al-Awsat/April 22/2022
Internal fighting continued between different factions of the Syrian National
Army, supported by Ankara, in the areas of Turkish military operations in
northern Syria. Disputes have erupted over a struggle for power and influence,
and for material gains that are reaped from ports and smuggling crossings.
Activists in the countryside of Aleppo said a member was killed on Thursday in
an armed clash between two groups of the Sultan Suleiman Shah Division,
affiliated with the Syrian National Army, in the city center of Jindires in the
countryside of Afrin, northern Aleppo. The dispute resulted in the serious
injury of other militants. On April 18, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said violent clashes, using with medium and light machine guns, erupted between
two groups of the Syrian Front faction, which is affiliated with the Syrian
National Army, near Al-Qabban roundabout in the center of Afrin city.
The dispute developed into violent clashes between the two parties, without
reports on human casualties. Husam al-Shihabi, a resident of the city of al-Bab
in the countryside of Aleppo, said violent clashes erupted on April 2, between
the Ahrar al-Sham and Al-Jabha al-Shamiya factions, near the city, located
within the Euphrates Shield area. The dispute erupted when a leader in Ahrar
al-Sham refused to give up his position in the Third Legion, which is affiliated
with the National Army. The clashes led to the killing and wounding of four
members of the factions, and the blocking of the roads leading to al-Bab,
prompting the residents to stage a mass demonstration in the city, calling on
the factions to stop the fighting and observe the sanctity of the month of
Ramadan. “About 17 members have been killed and more than 30 others wounded,
since the beginning of 2022, in bloody clashes between the factions affiliated
with the Syrian National Army, in the areas of the northern countryside of
Aleppo (al-Bab, Afrin Jandiris, Azaz and Al-Ra’i), which caused the closure of
roads and markets,” Shihabi said.
Tunisian President Seizes Control of Electoral Commission
Asharq Al-Awsat/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Tunisia's president seized control of the country's election commission on
Friday, saying he would replace most of its members in a move that will entrench
his one-man rule and cast doubt on electoral integrity. The commission head
Nabil Baffoun told Reuters that President Kais Saied's decree was a blow to the
democratic gains of the country's 2011 revolution and meant the body was no
longer independent. "It has become the president's commission," he said.
President Kais Saied has already dismissed parliament and taken control of the
judiciary after assuming executive authority last summer and saying he could
rule by decree in moves his opponents denounce as a coup. Saied, who says his
actions were both legal and needed to save Tunisia from a crisis, is rewriting
the democratic constitution introduced after the 2011 revolution and says he
will put it to a referendum in July. Tunisia's biggest political party, the
Islamist Ennahda which has opposed Saied's moves since last summer, said it
would hold consultations with other parties on how to respond. "Any elections
will lose all credibility with a body appointed by the president," said Ennahda
leader Rached Ghannouchi, speaker of the parliament which Saied said he was
dissolving earlier this month. In his decree on Friday Saied said he would
select three of the existing nine members of the electoral commission to stay
on, serving in a new seven-member panel with three judges and an information
technology specialist. He would name the commission head himself. The judges
would be selected by the supreme judicial council, a body he also unilaterally
replaced this year in a move seen as undermining the independence of the
judiciary. Commission head Baffoun had angered Saied by criticizing his plans to
hold a referendum and a later parliamentary election, saying such votes could
only happen within the framework of the existing constitution. This week,
referring to Saied's expected announcements, Baffoun said the president was not
allowed to change the membership of the electoral commission or to rewrite
electoral laws by decree. Although Saied's seizure of powers has angered most of
Tunisia's political establishment, it was initially very popular in a country
where many people were frustrated by economic stagnation and governmental
paralysis. However, while Saied has focused on restructuring Tunisian politics,
a looming economic crisis threatens to unravel his plans, as the government
struggles to finance its 2022 deficit and repay debts. Talks between Tunisian
negotiators and the International Monetary Fund for a rescue package resumed in
the United States this week. Tunisia's main Western donors have urged Saied to
return to a democratic, constitutional path.
Kuwait government’s resignation puts parliament on hold
Arab News/Thursday 21/04/2022
Recent statements by Kuwaiti Parliament Speaker Marzouq al-Ghanim's sparked
concerns in the country, especially since there are bills that are supposed to
be reviewed and passed before the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
The country's top lawmaker said on Tuesday that the resignation of Kuwait's
government, pending the emir's approval, has thrown parliament into abeyance. He
said the government had refused to attend parliament until the matter is
resolved. "The government has addressed an apology
letter to me over its refusal to attend sessions of parliament," Ghanim told
reporters, saying he had no knowledge about whether Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Nawaf
al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah would accept the government's resignation.
Parliament will only be allowed to resume under a "caretaker government
led by the Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khaled al-Hamad al-Sabah," Ghanim
said.
Kuwait's government submitted its resignation earlier this month to Crown Prince
Sheikh Mishaal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah, but the country’s emir will have the
final say in the matter. The government’s move came a
day ahead of a parliamentary vote on a letter of non-cooperation, which ten
lawmakers submitted against the premier after he had been accused of
“unconstitutional” practices, including corruption.
Oil-rich Kuwait has been shaken by disputes between lawmakers and successive
governments dominated by the ruling Al-Sabah family for more than a decade, with
parliaments and cabinets dissolved several times.Informed political sources said
that the country’s leadership represented by the emir and Crown Prince was
currently examining options to resolve the crisis before announcing the approval
of the government's resignation. The same sources
indicated that the Kuwaiti leadership is aware that there is a need for a
different approach, as it is pointless to accept the resignation of the
government and form another without finding a radical solution to the causes of
the crisis. Ghanim's decision to suspend parliament’s
sessions angered opposition MPs, who described the move as unconstitutional,
accusing the government of evading its obligations towards retirees.
Politician and former MP Saleh Muhammad al-Mulla considered that “the failure to
decide on the resignation of the government means that it still enjoys full
powers ... and it bears all constitutional responsibilities, including attending
the sessions of the National Assembly. “Failure to
call for sessions and dealing with the parliament as if it were a shop that
opens and closes by the order of its owner amounts to a situation that cannot be
accepted. This undermines the nation’s authority in supervision and
legislation,” Mulla added. On the prospect of paying
Kuwaiti retirees a one-time grant, the parliament speaker, however, said that a
special session needs to be devoted to such "urgent matters," a measure that
already has the backing of lawmakers. Kuwait is the
only Gulf Arab state with a fully-elected parliament, which enjoys wide
legislative powers and can vote ministers out of office.
In February, the country’s interior and defence ministers resigned in
protest over the manner of parliamentary questioning of other ministers.
Parliament had questioned Foreign Minister Sheikh Ahmed Nasser
al-Mohammed Al-Sabah, also part of the royal family, over corruption claims and
alleged misuse of public funds. Sheikh Ahmed survived
a no-confidence vote on February 16, but Defence Minister Sheikh Hamad Jaber
Al-Ali Al-Sabah said the lengthy grilling was an “abuse” of power.
“Interrogations are a constitutional right … but parliamentary practices
are hindering us from fulfilling the aspirations of the Kuwaiti people,” he was
quoted as saying at the time by Kuwaiti media. The
country’s last government was sworn in December, the fourth in two years, after
its predecessor resigned in November amid political deadlock.
Israeli police storm Jerusalem holy site after
rock-throwing
Associated Press/April 22/ 2022
Israeli police in full riot gear stormed a sensitive Jerusalem holy site sacred
to Jews and Muslims on Friday after Palestinian youths hurled stones at a gate
where they were stationed. The renewed violence at the site, which is sacred to
Jews and Muslims, came despite Israel temporarily halting Jewish visits, which
are seen by the Palestinians as a provocation. Medics said more than two dozen
Palestinians were wounded before the clashes subsided hours later.
Palestinians and Israeli police have regularly clashed at the site over
the last week at a time of heightened tensions following a string of deadly
attacks inside Israel and arrest raids in the occupied West Bank. Three rockets
have been fired into Israel from the Gaza Strip, which is controlled by the
Islamic militant group Hamas. The string of events has raised fears of a repeat
of last year, when protests and violence in Jerusalem eventually boiled over,
helping to ignite an 11-day war between Israel and Hamas, and communal violence
in Israel's mixed cities. Palestinian youths hurled stones toward police at a
gate leading into the compound, according to two Palestinian witnesses who spoke
on condition of anonymity out of security concerns. The police, in full riot
gear, then entered the compound, firing rubber bullets and stun grenades.
Israeli police said the Palestinians, some carrying Hamas flags, had
begun stockpiling stones and erecting crude fortifications before dawn. The
police said that after the rock-throwing began, they waited until after early
morning prayers had finished before entering the compound.
Some older Palestinians urged the youths to stop throwing rocks but were
ignored, as dozens of young masked men hurled stones and fireworks at the
police. A tree caught fire near the gate where the clashes began. Police said it
was ignited by fireworks thrown by the Palestinians.
The violence subsided later in the morning after another group of dozens of
Palestinians said they wanted to clean the area ahead of the main weekly prayers
midday, which are regularly attended by tens of thousands of Muslim worshippers.
The police withdrew to the gate and the stone-throwing stopped.
The Palestinian Red Crescent medical service said at least 31 Palestinians were
wounded, including 14 who were taken to hospitals. A policewoman was hit in the
face by a rock and taken for medical treatment, the police said.
The Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem's Old City is the third holiest site in Islam.
The sprawling esplanade on which it is built is the holiest site for Jews, who
refer to it as the Temple Mount because it was the location of two Jewish
temples in antiquity. It lies at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
and clashes there have often ignited violence elsewhere.
Palestinians and neighboring Jordan, the custodian of the site, accuse
Israel of violating longstanding arrangements by allowing increasingly large
numbers of Jews to visit the site under police escort.
A longstanding prohibition on Jews praying at the site has eroded in recent
years, fueling fears among Palestinians that Israel plans to take over the site
or partition it. Israel says it remains committed to the status quo and blames
the violence on incitement by Hamas. It says its security forces are acting to
remove rock-throwers in order to ensure freedom of worship for Jews and Muslims.
Visits by Jewish groups were halted beginning Friday for the last 10 days
of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, as they have been in the past.
This year, Ramadan coincided with the week-long Jewish Passover and major
Christian holidays, with tens of thousands of people from all three faiths
flocking to the Old City after the lifting of most coronavirus restrictions.
The Old City is in east Jerusalem, which Israel captured along with the
West Bank and Gaza in the 1967 Mideast war. Israel annexed east Jerusalem in a
move not recognized internationally and considers the entire city its capital.
The Palestinians seek an independent state in all three territories and view
east Jerusalem as their capital.
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New State Department Report Admits Iran May Be Hiding
Nuclear Activities
Anthony Ruggiero and Andrea Stricker/Policy Brief/April 22/ 2022
The Biden administration has “serious concerns” about “possible undeclared
nuclear material and activities in Iran,” according to an annual report the
State Department released on Tuesday. The administration’s admission that Tehran
continues to stonewall inspectors and conceal its nuclear activities shows why
it would be a serious mistake to revive a weaker version of the 2015 nuclear
deal, whose verification and enforcement mechanisms were already deficient. The
new findings on Iran are part of a larger publication that assesses countries’
compliance with agreements pertaining to arms control, nonproliferation, and
disarmament. The latest edition of this annual report discusses the
International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) investigation into Iran’s
undeclared nuclear activities at four locations. The State Department notes that
Tehran has not cooperated with the agency’s probe at those four sites, which
involved Iran’s possible use or storage of nuclear material and equipment or
undeclared nuclear activities. Questions also remain about the fourth location,
the site of the Islamic Republic’s alleged experiments with a uranium metal
disc. In the State Department’s previous annual report, which covered 2020, the
Biden administration warned that “even small amounts of undeclared uranium metal
in Iran would be of serious proliferation concern given its applicability to
nuclear weapons research and development.” Just last month, IAEA Director
General Rafael Grossi told the agency’s Board of Governors that Tehran did not
declare experiments relating to this nuclear weaponization activity, violating
Iran’s safeguards agreement with the agency. While Tehran’s behavior has not
changed, the new compliance report omits strong language that last year’s
edition used in reference to Iran’s undeclared nuclear activities. That report
stated: “These issues raise significant questions of what Iran may be trying to
hide, and whether Iran is in compliance with its safeguards obligations today.”
(Emphasis in the original.) The report covering 2020 also declared that “Iran’s
intentional failure to declare nuclear material subject to IAEA safeguards would
constitute a clear violation of Iran’s CSA [Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement]
required by the NPT [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] and would constitute a
violation of Article III of the NPT itself.” This is no less true today. The
most recent report assesses, like the previous edition, that “Iran is not
currently engaged in key activities associated with the design and development
of a nuclear weapon.” Yet other sections of this year’s report show Tehran is
moving toward weaponization. For example, regarding Iran’s production of 20
percent enriched uranium metal, the report states: “Although uranium metal has
civilian and conventional military applications, producing it is also a key
nuclear-weapons-related capability because Iran would need to convert
weapons-grade uranium from the gaseous form used in enrichment into metal to
make nuclear weapon components.”
In addition, subsequent revelations have shown that Iran hid and camouflaged
weaponization projects after restructuring its nuclear program in 2003. As such,
the U.S. government may not have adequate information to reliably report on such
activities. Of the four sites the IAEA now seeks to investigate, three came to
light only after the Mossad’s 2018 exposure of Tehran’s secret nuclear archive.
Furthermore, the IAEA has never visited several other sites mentioned in the
archive. In the previous edition of its compliance report, the State Department
emphasized that the “ongoing investigations and Iran’s failure for much of the
reporting period to provide the necessary cooperation with the IAEA in
connection with them raise concern with regard to Iran’s compliance with its
obligation to accept safeguards under Article III of the NPT.” That is no less
true today. Iran is violating its fundamental non-proliferation commitments, not
just the terms of the problematic 2015 nuclear deal. President Joe Biden should
not reward Tehran with sanctions relief worth tens of billions of dollars — and
possibly much more — while ignoring serious nonproliferation breaches. Instead,
the United States should lead an effort at the next Board of Governors meeting
to censure Iran for its non-compliance with its NPT obligations.
*Anthony Ruggiero is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of
Democracies (FDD), where Andrea Stricker is a research fellow. Anthony
previously served in the U.S. government for more than 19 years, including as
senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense (2019-2021) on the
National Security Council. They both contribute to FDD’s Iran Program,
International Organizations Program, and Center on Military and Political Power
(CMPP). For more analysis from the authors, the Iran Program, the International
Organizations Program, and CMPP, please subscribe HERE. Follow Anthony and
Andrea on Twitter @NatSecAnthony and @StrickerNonpro. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD
and @FDD_Iran and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research
institute focused on national security and foreign policy.
How Israel’s Minority Government Can Stay in Power
Shany Mor/The National Interest/April 21/2022 |
The loss of a majority in the parliament is a damaging setback for both Bennett
and Lapid. However, it is still too soon to count either of them out.
Israel’s “change government” is not yet one year old, but it has already lost
its parliamentary majority after the unexpected departure of a single lawmaker.
However, Prime Minister Naftali Bennett built his coalition on a solid
foundation of mutual mistrust and common dislikes—so solid, in fact, that it
just might hang on to power for the foreseeable future.
Two unusual features of Israel’s constitutional architecture, both of recent
vintage, ought to lend substantial resilience to Bennett’s coalition. First, a
simple vote of no confidence cannot bring down the government. Instead, there
must be a “constructive” vote of no confidence that installs a new coalition,
ready to govern. Second, in the event of early elections, the premiership would
automatically pass from Bennett to his understudy, Alternate Prime Minister Yair
Lapid. In tandem, these provisions have the unintentional effect of lending
considerable durability to coalitions based more on shared antagonism than
positive agendas.
Israel famously has no written constitution, just a set of easily amendable
Basic Laws.
This setup has led to constant tinkering with the rules of the political game,
including a brief—and, by most accounts, disastrous—experiment with direct
elections for prime minister. When the Knesset put an end to this experiment in
2001, it didn’t just cancel the direct election law; it also copied a reform
from Germany’s Basic Law that requires constructive votes of no confidence.
For the Germans, this provision precluded a repeat of the traumas of the Weimar
era, when Communists and Nazis could join up for repeated no-confidence votes,
even though their loathing for each other rendered impossible the formation of a
new government. In Israel, the idea that the Far Left and Far Right (or perhaps,
ultra-Orthodox and Arab, or some other odd-couple combination) might create a
similar sort of chaos started to seem like a distant but real possibility by the
early 2000s, enough to merit including the German provision in the Israeli basic
law.
In the Knesset, the opposition now has exactly sixty out of 120 seats. But even
if it had sixty-one, the ideological divides among them would make it all but
impossible to forge an alternative coalition. In addition to Benjamin
Netanyahu’s Likud, the opposition includes the far-right Religious Zionism party
and the three Arab parties of the Joint List, who mostly oppose the existence of
a Jewish state and whose leaders often make common cause with Israel’s enemies.
The latter, it is safe to assume, have no interest in returning Netanyahu to the
prime minister’s bureau.
As long as Netanyahu remains atop the Likud, he will need at least six or seven
or possibly more defections from Bennett’s coalition to form an alternative
government, which is an extreme long shot since resentment of Netanyahu is the
glue that brought Bennett’s coalition together.
In the meantime, Israel is governed by a minority government, a situation not
without challenges, but not without precedent either. During two pivotal years
preceding his assassination, Yitzhak Rabin governed without a majority. Besides
a constructive vote of no confidence, a government can fall if it fails to pass
a budget, but the Knesset just passed one for the next fiscal year. Moreover, a
majority coalition isn’t necessary to pass a budget, since abstentions or
defections from the opposition—for a price, of course—can squeeze a budget
through.
The second quasi-constitutional provision now lending durability to Bennett’s
government is the two-year-old rule that created the position of alternate prime
minister, an invention of the 2020 coalition agreement between Benjamin
Netanyahu and the Blue and White bloc led by Benny Gantz, which fought Netanyahu
to a draw in three consecutive elections in a span of twelve months. The
government that foisted this awkward constitutional formulation onto Israeli
politics didn’t last long enough to see it have any impact, but the provision is
still written into Israel’s Basic Law, and it formed the basis of the current
coalition agreement as well.
Coalitions in Israel have always been complicated and unwieldy, but until very
recently, they were generally dominated by one large party (except for the
various “unity governments” of 1984-1990). Yet parties have now become
personality vehicles rather than coherent ideological or social groupings, and
the Knesset has gradually transitioned from a collection of a few large parties
and many smaller ones to a collection of medium and mostly smaller parties.
As long as this remains the case, coalitions are likely to require rotation
agreements that allow two leaders to divide the prime minister’s tenure. The
current prime minister, after all, leads a party that won only seven seats in
the 120-seat chamber, so he could hardly insist on a full four-year term.
The alternate prime minister, then, is not just another made-up cabinet position
designed to smooth over coalition-making. It’s a dramatic, if under-appreciated,
constitutional reform that has effectively created a bicephalous regime, not
just in the last two governments, but in all likelihood for many more to come.
This kind of alternation may, in fact, become a model for other parliamentary
democracies struggling with increasingly fractious coalitions that have no
dominant members.
The law does more than just provide for a rotation in the role of prime minister
without needing the government to resign and regain the confidence of
parliament. Among its many provisions, perhaps the most relevant to the
stability of Bennett’s government is the one that triggers an automatic rotation
if a government’s term is cut short by early elections.
This means that if the opposition gains a sixty-first member who enables it to
dissolve the Knesset and hold new elections, it will be installing Yair Lapid as
prime minister, not Benjamin Netanyahu. And there he will stay as caretaker
until a new government is formed. There is little reason to believe that the
bloc of pro-Netanyahu parties can win the clear majority at the polls that
eluded them in four election cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2021. The longer the
stalemate, the longer the more moderate Lapid, not the rightist Bennett, remains
in power.
To be sure, the loss of a parliamentary majority is a damaging setback for both
Bennett and Lapid. Every bit of legislation will be a slog, and many worthwhile
initiatives are probably now doomed to defeat. But thanks to their parties’
shared antagonisms and the constitutional provisions that empower minority
governments, it is still too soon to count either of them out.
Shany Mor is an Adjunct Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and
a Research Fellow at the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility at Reichman
University. Follow him on Twitter @ShMMor. FDD is a Washington, DC-based,
nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
Are Biden and Putin agreeing on limits to the war? Just read their
statements.
David Ignatius/The Washington Post/April 22/2022
Take a careful look at presidential statements from Russia and the United States
this week, and you’ll see that the leaders of the two countries appear to be
clarifying their goals in Ukraine — as the war shifts to a concentrated, bitter
fight for control of the eastern part of the country.
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The latest statements by President Vladimir Putin and President Biden don’t
preclude a dangerous escalation. But they do offer public descriptions of each
side’s goals in ways that may reduce the risk of miscalculation — perhaps
setting parameters for what Cold War strategists would have called an “agreed
battle.”
Putin’s new message, implicit but unmistakable, is retrenchment. Having failed
in his initial push to seize Kyiv and topple the government, he now speaks of
controlling the Russian-speaking eastern part of the country, known as Donbas,
and neighboring areas along the coast. Biden’s message, by contrast, has become
more assertive: stepping up U.S. military aid to Ukraine and vowing to resist
Putin’s hegemony over Kyiv, even as he quietly recognizes certain limits.
Putin focused in two statements this week on the priority of securing the Donbas
region, which Russia views as independent of Kyiv. Protecting the separatists in
Donbas from the central government was Putin’s pretext for invasion when he
launched the war Feb. 24. But in the opening weeks of the war, he also appeared
to be seeking the overthrow of President Volodymyr Zelensky, with his
nonsensical talk of the “denazification” of Ukraine. With Russia’s failure to
capture Kyiv, that broader goal seems to have receded.
Image without a caption
Putin emphasized the Donbas mission on Wednesday, at a choreographed meeting
with a group that included a 12-year-old girl from that region. “As I said at
the very beginning, the purpose of this operation is exactly to help our people
living in Donbas, people like you. We will act consistently and achieve a
situation where life will gradually return to normal there,” he said.
Putin amplified this message in a meeting Thursday with Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu. Putin claimed victory in the southern coastal city of Mariupol and
praised the Russian troops there who have assaulted the city for weeks,
asserting that they “sacrificed their lives so that our people in Donbas live in
peace and to enable Russia, our country, to live in peace.”
But he ordered Shoigu not to storm Ukrainian fighters still entrenched beneath a
steel complex outside Mariupol, telling his defense minister to instead
“prioritize preserving the lives and health of our soldiers and officers.” That
didn’t sound like a president ready to pay the butcher’s bill for a bloody
campaign to capture all of Ukraine.
Biden offered a similarly pointed summary of American priorities in remarks
Thursday at the White House. He announced another $800 million in military aid
for Ukraine, matching a similar package just a week ago, and praised the
“fearless and skilled Ukrainian fighters” resisting Russia’s invasion. He said
that the United States could sustain its military support to Ukraine “for a long
time.” But Biden avoided, as he has since the beginning of the war, any
suggestion of direct U.S. military involvement.
Biden underlined NATO unity against Russia, another bedrock theme of U.S.
policy. The alliance, he said, was “sending an unmistakable message to Putin: He
will never succeed in dominating and occupying all of Ukraine. He will not —
that will not happen.” Biden’s statement, though resolute in tone, left open the
possibility that Putin might occupy some of Ukraine, in the southeastern region
where Russian attacks are now concentrated.
The comments this week in Moscow and Washington illustrate the way in which war
can sometimes clarify choices and reduce uncertainty. Finding such stability was
the premise of the “agreed battle” formula discussed by some Cold War
strategists. Herman Kahn of Rand Corp., famed as a “wizard of Armageddon," once
postulated a specific “escalation ladder” for superpower conflict. The ladder
had 44 rungs; nuclear weapons were to be used only at rung 15.
Putin’s renewed emphasis on Donbas, with its implicit message of limited war
aims, could reduce some of the pressures for escalation. But paradoxically, if
Putin’s forces fail in Donbas over the next few weeks, as they did in the battle
for Kyiv, the situation could become more unpredictable and potentially
dangerous. The odds of escalation might increase again.
As if to remind the West of his other options, Putin this week watched by video
the test of a new Russian intercontinental ballistic missile. This
nuclear-weapons delivery system “will be a wake-up call for those who are trying
to threaten our country in the frenzy of rabid, aggressive rhetoric,” Putin
warned. It was a staged event, more chest-thumping about Russian capabilities
than specific threat. But it offered another glimpse of the dangers that lie
beyond the current parameters of the Ukraine conflict.
Finally, an unlikely personal footnote: As I was drafting this column, Russia
announced that I was among 29 Americans who are banned indefinitely from
traveling to Russia. This sanctions list is an unusual group, including Vice
President Harris and her husband, fellow journalists George Stephanopoulos of
ABC and my Post Opinions colleague Robert Kagan, and tycoons such as Mark
Zuckerberg of Meta.
I guess that means the Foreign Ministry won’t be issuing the visa granted last
fall for me to travel to Russia. But, hey, at least my columns are being read in
Moscow.
War in Ukraine: What you need to know
The latest: Kyiv is moving with increased urgency to save 1,000 civilians who
are holed up in a steel plant in Mariupol with the last Ukrainian fighters in
the port city. Ukraine has offered to exchange Russian prisoners for the
evacuation of the civilians — and to send senior officials to Mariupol to
negotiate — but President Zelensky said Moscow has “so far” rebuffed the bid.
The fight: Russian forces continue to mount sporadic attacks on civilian targets
in a number of Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian prosecutors have been taking detailed
testimony from victims to investigate Russian war crimes.
The weapons: Ukraine is making use of weapons such as Javelin antitank missiles
and Switchblade “kamikaze” drones, provided by the United States and other
allies. Russia has used an array of weapons against Ukraine, some of which have
drawn the attention and concern of analysts.
In Russia: Putin has locked down the flow of information within Russia, where
the war isn’t even being called a war.
What Does the West Want in Ukraine?Defining Success—Before
It’s Too Late
Richard Haass/Foreign Affairs/April 22/2022
Vladimir Putin launched his war against Ukraine with expansive aims that, if
achieved, would have essentially ended that country’s existence as a sovereign
state. Faced with costly military setbacks, the Russian president has since
defined success down, refocusing the Russian military operation on consolidating
its hold in Ukraine’s east and south.
Curiously, Western aims in Ukraine have been far less clear. Almost all the
debate over what to do has focused on means: on the quantity and quality of
military aid to provide the country, on the wisdom of establishing a no-fly zone
over Ukrainian airspace, on the extent of economic sanctions on Russia. Little
has been said about what either side would have to concede in order to end the
war. Also left unsaid is whether an end to the conflict would need to be
formalized in a treaty signed by Russia and Ukraine or simply accepted as a
reality.
Answering the question of how this war should end is vital as the struggle with
Russia enters a critical moment, with a large battle looming. Wars can end when
a major gap emerges between the belligerents so that one side can impose terms
on the other, or when both sides realize that outright victory is not in the
cards and decide it is better to settle for less than bear the costs of carrying
on. In either situation, the end of the war can be codified in legal documents
that address questions of territory and political and economic arrangements, or
the conflict can simply wind down, coming to a de facto end without a formal
peace. World War II was an example of the former; the Korean and Gulf Wars, the
latter.
In principle, success from the West’s perspective can be defined as ending the
war sooner rather than later, and on terms that Ukraine’s democratic government
is prepared to accept. But just what are those terms? Will Ukraine seek to
recover all the territory it has lost in the past two months? Will it require
that Russian forces withdraw completely from the Donbas and Crimea? Will it
demand the right to join the EU and NATO? Will it insist that all this be set
forth in a formal document signed by Russia?
The United States, the EU, and NATO need to discuss such questions with one
another and with Ukraine now. Western goals will inevitably be influenced by
what happens on the ground, but what happens on the ground should not determine
those goals; instead, policy aims should influence what is sought on the ground.
To be sure, the Ukrainians have every right to define their war aims. But so do
the United States and Europe. Although Western interests overlap with Ukraine’s,
they are broader, including nuclear stability with Russia and the ability to
influence the trajectory of the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs.
It is also essential to take into account that Russia gets a vote. Although
Putin initiated this war of choice, it will take more than just him to end it.
He and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will both have to consider what
they require in the way of territory and terms to halt hostilities. They will
also have to decide if they are prepared not only to order an end to the
fighting but also to enter into and honor a peace agreement. Another complexity
is that some aspects of any peace, such as the lifting of sanctions against
Russia, would not be determined by Ukraine alone but would require the consent
of others.
Meaningful consultations are essential if policy is not to be made carelessly
and on the fly. And they are essential to preventing major fault lines from
opening up between Ukraine and the United States and Europe, and even within
NATO.
THREE FUTURES
It is impossible to know if the Russian military will be able to realize its
ambitions of asserting greater control in the Donbas region and establishing a
land bridge to Crimea—and, if it is able to, whether Putin will again revise his
war aims, in this case upward. What is almost certain is that no legitimate
Ukrainian government would formally accept an outcome so favorable to Russia.
The atrocities that Russian forces have committed during the fight have made it
far harder for Kyiv to let Moscow leave the negotiating table with anything that
would seem like a reward for its brutality. Zelensky may also believe (for good
reason) that allowing Russia to maintain a hold on Ukraine’s territory would
make it difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine to remain sovereign in any
meaningful sense. On this score, the West should continue to provide support to
Ukraine, to prevent Putin’s aggression from succeeding in Ukraine and from
setting a dangerous precedent that would constitute a challenge to order
everywhere. So even if Putin were prepared to cease major military operations in
exchange for keeping a large swath of Ukraine, the war would probably continue
at some level, much as it has in the so-called frozen conflict in the Donbas
since 2014.
One alternative to a scenario favoring Russia would be a stalemate. Things would
stand more or less where they did before the invasion, with Russia occupying
Crimea and exercising de facto control through its proxies over parts of the
Donbas. Such a future would come about if Ukraine clawed back some of what
Russia has gained over the past two months but if neither Ukraine nor Russia
were able to achieve decisive military progress. This outcome could be
acceptable to Ukraine, which has a powerful incentive to end a war that has
caused so much death and destruction. It would be peace at a price, but
potentially a price worth paying. And in principle, Putin, too, might support
such an outcome, judging that there was little to gain from continuing the
fight. If, as part of this scenario, Ukraine agreed not to join NATO, he might
also calculate he could persuade many Russians that the country had won the war,
even if it didn’t acquire much territory. If such a consensus emerged, it would
be one worth supporting.
The Ukrainians have every right to define their war aims. But so do the United
States and Europe.
But it seems overly optimistic to imagine that a military stalemate would pave
the way for a diplomatic settlement. Putin would be hard-pressed to make a
plausible case that such a muddied result justified the military, diplomatic,
and economic costs of his war. Moreover, given his past rhetoric, he seems
unlikely to sign away all claims to Ukraine, accepting its permanent separation
from Russia and letting it choose a liberal, Western-oriented path for itself,
including membership in the EU. The near certainty that such an outcome would
not result in major sanctions relief, an end to war crimes investigations, or
calls for reparations also argues against Putin accepting this scenario. A
stalemate would almost certainly become an open-ended conflict. And again, many
in Ukraine would reject any arrangement that left Russia in control of any
Ukrainian territory.
A third future would be defined by Ukrainian military success. Russia would be
forced to accept not merely the pre-2022 status quo but the pre-2014 status quo.
In theory, this would be an ideal outcome for Ukraine, which would regain all
the sovereignty it has lost in the past eight years, and for international
order, as it would reinforce the norm that territory must not be acquired by
force. In practice, however, things would be more complicated. Even if Ukraine
succeeded in ousting Russian troops, the country would still be vulnerable to
missile and artillery attacks emanating from Russia, to say nothing of
cyberattacks and political interference. Even more important, it is near
impossible to imagine Putin accepting such an outcome, since it would surely
threaten his political survival, and possibly even his physical survival. In
desperation, he might try to widen the war through cyberattacks or attacks on
one or more NATO countries. He might even resort to chemical or nuclear weapons.
It is far from certain that Russia has the mechanisms in place to prevent Putin
from ordering such escalation if he decided he had nothing to lose.
The potential for Russian escalation raises the question of whether at this
point it would be wise for Ukraine to attempt to take back all of the Donbas and
Crimea. Arguably, these aims are better left for a postconflict, or even a post-Putin,
period in which the West could condition sanctions relief on Russia’s signing of
a formal peace agreement. Such a pact might allow Ukraine to enjoy formal ties
to the EU and security guarantees, even as it remained officially neutral and
outside NATO. Russia, for its part, might agree to withdraw its forces from the
entirety of the Donbas in exchange for international protections for the ethnic
Russians living there. Crimea might gain some special status, with Moscow and
Kyiv agreeing that its final status would be determined down the road.
HISTORY’S ADVICE
As the United States contemplates its strategy for Ukraine, it is useful to keep
in mind two lessons of the Cold War. The first was to avoid direct armed
conflict with the Soviet Union unless vital U.S. interests were threatened. The
second was to accept less than optimal outcomes so as to avoid threatening vital
Soviet interests, something that could all too easily lead to war. This
recognition that there were limits to the United States’ goals meant deciding
not to roll back Soviet advances in Eastern Europe after Moscow crushed the 1956
revolution in Hungary and the 1968 revolution in Czechoslovakia. It meant
stopping Israeli forces from decimating the Egyptian Third Army after they
surrounded it near Cairo during the 1973 war between the Soviet-allied Arab
states and the U.S.-allied Israel. And it meant accepting communist rule in the
Soviet Union itself. Such restraint was articulated in the doctrine of
containment as developed by the diplomat George Kennan. But over time, as Kennan
suggested, the successful application of containment could add to pressures that
would undermine communism—as it eventually did, after four decades.
The first lesson of the Cold War is reflected in existing Western policy toward
Ukraine. From the outset of the crisis, the United States made it clear that it
would not place boots on the ground or establish a no-fly zone, since doing so
could bring U.S. and Russian forces into direct contact and raise the risk of
escalation. Instead, Washington and its NATO partners opted for an indirect
strategy of providing arms, intelligence, and training to Ukraine while
pressuring Russia with economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
As for the second lesson, the United States’ and NATO’s decision to pursue their
aims through limited means has worked to a considerable extent. That choice has
not prevented Russia from destroying Ukraine’s civilian centers, but the battle
between the armed forces of the two countries has favored Ukraine. The question
now is whether the West should embrace limited ends, eschewing military efforts
to oust Russia from all of Ukraine or demanding regime change in Moscow as a
condition of stopping the war.
Meaningful consultations are essential if policy is not to be made carelessly
and on the fly.
Whatever goals the West ultimately settles on, requiring that the war end with a
formal peace agreement should not be one of them. The problem is not that it is
impossible to come up with a plausible formula for mutual compromise that leaves
each side better off; it is that depending on the formula, one or both sides
might judge that they are better off continuing a war that holds out the
possibility of a better outcome than they would be signing a pact that rules it
out. With both countries still eyeing the possibility of military gains and
wanting to avoid appearing weak, a formal pact appears out of reach for the
foreseeable future.
All this points to a long war. It will likely be fought mostly in Ukraine’s east
and south, although Russia would retain the ability to attack other targets. The
elements of a strategy for a long-term, open-ended war are well known: provide
Ukraine with the weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence it needs to
defend itself against Russia; make sure that NATO remains strong enough to
discourage Russia from escalating the conflict or preventing supplies from
reaching Ukraine; reduce energy imports from Russia as much as possible and as
soon as possible.
The conclusion is clear: the United States and its NATO partners should consult
with one another and with Ukraine over the aims of the war. The United States
and NATO also need to refine their plans for deterring and responding to any
Russian attacks on other countries or any Russian use of weapons of mass
destruction. In the near term, Western success will be highly unlikely to
involve a peace treaty, a true end to the conflict, or regime change in Russia.
Instead, success for now could consist of a winding down of hostilities, with
Russia possessing no more territory than it held before the recent invasion and
continuing to refrain from using weapons of mass destruction. Over time, the
West could employ a mix of sanctions and diplomacy in an effort to achieve a
full Russian military withdrawal from Ukraine. Such success would be far from
perfect, just preferable to the alternatives.
'I’d Better Stay Quiet'
Tariq Al-Homayed/Asharq Al Awsat/April 22/2022
Last Sunday, I wrote about the lie of an axis of “resistance” and
“confrontation” in an article entitled From Mashaal to Nasrallah. It is a
longstanding lie whose credibility fluctuates like stock prices, except that
this fluctuation is propelled by the fortunes of constant campaigning and
attempts at manipulating public opinion, which is as volatile as the weather.
The most powerful weapon yielded by those pushing the “resistance and
confrontation” lie is character or moral assassination, which has become a
popular tool for slandering and discrediting people. The term moral
assassination will be used from here on out in order to avert confusing the
concept with physical liquidation and murder. It can be used against anyone who
tries to shed light on the threat of extremism or Iran’s foreign agents and
exposes those who are trying to destroy our countries. This is nothing new. It
has been used for a long time. Below are a few examples that happened within
living memory and continue to form part of the public debate to the present day.
The time of the false “jihad” in Afghanistan, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of
Kuwait and his campaign to “expel the polytheists from the Arabian Peninsula”
are two early examples. They were followed by the terrorism of Al-Qaeda, the US
invasion of Iraq, and the “misadventurous” Lebanon War of 2006.
Most recently, we saw wars waged by belligerents who trade in blood, which I
always called “tin rocket” wars; then ISIS and the big lie of the so-called Arab
Spring emerged, and too many other developments to mention here unfolded. What
all those events have in common is an effort to confuse the public through the
deployment of the most dangerous weapon available to the belligerents, moral
assassination at every level, committed in print, on podiums, and now on social
media, which has become the most popular platform from which to execute rivals.
In an article for the Al-Watan newspaper entitled The Intellectual Versus
Extremism, the studious Saudi researcher Mr. Khaled al-Adaad writes that, “the
intellectual has a role to play in eliminating extremism, and this role is often
not heavily relied upon in the case of Saudi Arabia.”
The reason for this, he claims, is that, “the Saudi intellectual has been
morally assassinated in his society, which sees intellectuals as antithetical to
religion, customs, and traditions. In the Saudi consciousness, the
intellectual’s role is to change society and reshape its identity, an impression
which extremists of all forms have sought to promote.” On that note, I will tell
a story I can never forget. One day I met the late writer Ali Salem, may God
have mercy on his soul, in Cairo to ask him to write an article for the
newspaper, on the last page, or what we called “the front page 2,” when I was
editor in chief. I asked him, one of the most prominent supporters of the peace
process who had been on board since Anwar Sadat’s era, how he dealt with the
campaigns against him- how he managed to stay standing and do great work despite
the viciousness.
Ali Salem told me: “Moral assassination is more dangerous that firing a bullet.”
He added that it is a bullet used in a dangerous manner, evolving until it
becomes something like a pistol with a silencer.
He explained the most advanced version of moral assassination available at the
time, saying: “You would be sitting with a group of people when a man comes
over, and a member of the group says: ‘I’d better stay quiet.’ Everyone stops
talking. Neither did the moral assassin explain nor did those in attendance pose
questions, and the reasonable man is thus morally assassinated without a single
claim about him being made.”
And so, the “bullets of moral assassination” keep flying to this day. Indeed
they are fired more heavily than ever before in the grand exclusionary arena
that is social media in the service of “resistance and confrontation” and
extremists seeking to recalibrate their position after having pretended to be
tolerant… the story goes on and on…
Putin’s Struggles in Ukraine May Embolden Xi on Taiwan
Hal Brands/Bloomberg/April,22/2022
One of the biggest questions of the Ukraine war concerns tensions half a world
away: What lessons will China draw from the Russian invasion?
Western observers hope that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s faltering
invasion of Ukraine will convince China to go slow — that it will discourage
President Xi Jinping from undertaking an invasion of Taiwan. Yet there’s a real
possibility that it could actually induce Beijing to go fast — to use force more
harshly and decisively in hopes of avoiding the type of quagmire into which
Moscow has stumbled.
Learning from other people’s wars is a time-honored tradition. In the early 20th
century, Western observers scrutinized the Russo-Japanese war for hints about
the dynamics of modern conflict. During the Cold War, lessons drawn from the
Arab-Israeli wars strongly influenced Moscow’s and Washington’s preparations for
a superpower showdown that, mercifully, never occurred.
Today, Chinese observers are surely scrutinizing events on the battlefield as
well as the global response to Putin’s assault. There are two conflicting
narratives about what they are learning. The first, touted by high-ranking
Pentagon officials and some other analysts, is that Ukraine offers a cautionary
tale for Beijing. In this telling, Chinese officials now see how hard it is to
conquer a country that is fighting for national survival. The People’s
Liberation Army, which has not waged a significant conflict in more than 40
years, has likely been sobered by how poorly another autocratic military has
executed the complex tasks associated with contemporary warfare.
Xi must also be stunned by the performance of US intelligence, which deprived
Putin of anything resembling strategic surprise and has thus given fair warning
that China, too, might have any aggressive plans laid bare. The economic costs
that the democratic world has imposed on Moscow, the unity it has summoned in
response to an unprovoked attack, and the fact that the conflict is creating a
larger, more invigorated North Atlantic Treaty Organization cannot escape Xi’s
attention, either. From this vantage point, a bloody war in Europe could help
preserve the peace in Asia. It could force Xi’s government to revisit a whole
range of assumptions about how well the PLA would perform under wartime stress
and what consequences a war might bring down on Beijing.
This is certainly the lesson Western officials want Xi to draw — a desire that
surely reflects some of the self-congratulation that has crept into the West’s
assessment of its own performance. If the democracies have stunned themselves
with their support for Ukraine, then surely Xi has been stunned as well.
Or perhaps China’s ruler is drawing a much different lesson.
Xi has presumably noticed that the US and other democracies have given arms,
training and money to Ukraine but refrained from joining the fighting. Beijing
may not be impressed with the sanctions imposed on Moscow, given Europe’s
reluctance to take more drastic steps, such as quickly halting purchases of
Russian energy, that would inflict pain on its own citizens. The Chinese know,
moreover, that their larger, more sophisticated economy would be far harder to
strangle than Russia’s.
And maybe, in Xi’s view, Putin’s mistake was not his decision to invade Ukraine
— it was that he conducted the invasion in such a bumbling, indecisive manner,
giving the Ukrainians the chance to fight back and Washington and its allies the
opportunity to make Moscow pay.
This interpretation might push Xi in a more dangerous direction. It could
convince him that the key to winning a potential Taiwan conflict is to use
overwhelming force — crippling missile barrages, coordinated cyberattacks,
assassination and subversion campaigns, followed by a decisive, large-scale
invasion — to break the country’s resistance before the US and other nations can
get in the way.
This conclusion would mesh well with a Chinese military tradition that has long
emphasized surprise attacks, and with doctrinal writings that call for asserting
control of a contest in its earliest moments. “Seize the battlefield initiative,
paralyze the enemy’s war command, and give shock to the enemy’s will,” one of
China’s authoritative military publications exhorts.
There is, unavoidably, some guesswork here. Even talented China watchers
struggle to pierce the opacity of the regime and know what is in Xi’s mind.
China’s lessons from Ukraine may evolve as the conflict does: Whether Russia
ultimately succeeds or fails could be critical.
The two narratives sketched here aren’t even necessarily contradictory. Putin’s
difficulties could give Xi pause about whether to invade Taiwan, while also
pushing the PLA to be more forceful in how it conducts any prospective assault.
Yet if Xi is as committed to unification with Taiwan as his public rhetoric and
the PLA’s feverish preparations suggest, then “go fast” is at least as plausible
a takeaway as “go slow.” American observers need to be wary of mirror-imaging —
of assuming that our rivals perceive reality as we do. In supporting Ukraine,
the world’s democracies may think they are convincing Xi not to invade Taiwan.
They may simply be encouraging him to do it faster and better.
Mariupol Could Be the Thermopylae of the 21st Century
Andreas Kluth/Bloomberg/April,22/2022
Remember Azovstal. Some phrase like that could soon take the part of “Remember
the Alamo” in Ukraine’s heroic war of self-defense against Russia.
Azovstal is a giant steel plant in Mariupol, the city in eastern Ukraine that
Russian forces are pounding into submission and, in effect, extinction. In it, a
couple of thousand Ukrainian troops, sheltering a smaller number of civilians,
are holding out. The Russians first tried to bomb them out, and may now try to
starve them out.
This week the defenders scorned a Russian ultimatum to capitulate or be
destroyed. In a video message, one of their commanders appealed to world leaders
to organize an “extraction procedure” to bring the remaining soldiers and
civilians to a safe third country. Such an evacuation would echo that at Dunkirk
in 1940, when the Allies rescued their own forces from the Germans to fight
another day. But it’s unlikely.
More probably, the defenders at Azovstal will have to decide their fate
themselves. Surrender is not an option, they’ve made clear. Their chosen end, it
appears, is to die for their country in this last redoubt.
Like heroism generally, such brave last stands appeared to belong to the past,
legend or even myth. At their best, they are valiant defeats that make eventual
victory all the more poignant. At the Alamo in 1836, the Mexicans besieged and
killed the Texans defending the mission. But rage at their atrocities rallied
other Texans to defeat the Mexicans the following month. The result was the
Republic of Texas. Something even grander took place in 480 BCE, when King
Xerxes brought his vast Persian army to the narrow mountain pass at Thermopylae
to attack and subjugate the Greek city states to its south. A tiny force
centered around 300 Spartans held the gap for three days until they were
betrayed and outflanked. All died. But they had slowed down the Persian assault.
The following year, the Greeks won the war.
When warriors give their lives, of course, they must always fear that their
sacrifice could be in vain. That uncertainty gives a last stand a more exalted
and even poetic meaning. It becomes defiance for its own sake.
So it did in the year 74, when a group of Jewish zealots held out at Masada, a
hilltop fortress by the Dead Sea, against an overwhelming Roman force. According
to a Roman historian, the 960 men, women and children committed suicide rather
than surrender.
In 1877, a samurai army, in effect, did the same thing. In the Satsuma
Rebellion, it rose against the imperial government of Japan and the
westernization it represented. With their ancient skills of war confronting the
mechanized weapons of the new industrial era, the samurai stood no chance. “What
happened to the warriors at Thermopylae?” the rebel commander asks his American
friend on the battlefield in the movie version. “Dead to the last man,” replies
the American, before they throw themselves exultantly at the enemy, and into
death.
Sometimes the only motivation for a last stand is loyalty to one’s
brothers-in-arms. The Nibelung Song, a Germanic epic, culminates in a slaughter
of the Burgundian knights by the Huns who are their hosts. Not self-defense but
murder, revenge and betrayal had led them to this point. But together they
fought, and died.
When the Germans in World War II needed a narrative for their defeat in
Stalingrad, they reached for that story. Hermann Goering, one of Hitler’s top
Nazis, likened the demise of the Wehrmacht’s 6th army to the death throes of the
Nibelungs. Propaganda chief Joseph Goebbels tried to turn Stalingrad into a new
legend, where Germans fought “to the last bullet” and “died so that Germany may
live.”
All of this was lies. The Third Reich did not live, and the Germans did not
fight to the last bullet. And unlike the ancient Spartans, they didn’t perish
because they voluntarily took a last stand in self-defense of their country, but
because their evil regime sacrificed them in a war of extermination and
enslavement.
If Putin’s propagandists had their choice, they’d paint the Ukrainian defenders
at Azovstal with the same brush. The Kremlin peddles the fiction that it must
attack Ukraine to “denazify” it. This claim is absurd — Ukraine is a pro-Western
democracy with a president of Jewish descent. But to Russian ears, the narrative
might superficially match some of the Ukrainian defenders in the steel factory,
who include the Azov Battalion, a nationalist regiment with alleged neo-Nazi
ties.
So the nobility of a last stand is inevitably at least in part in the eye of the
beholder. And yet, Azovstal does resemble Thermopylae. Each was, or is,
strategic — Thermopylae was the gate to invade Greece; Mariupol is a land bridge
that could connect Russian-held Crimea with the Donbas region the Russians are
now trying to swallow.
No matter the particular circumstances, for those of us in more humdrum life
situations, last stands remain mysterious. What motivates men and women to face
such overwhelming force, and near-certain death? It may be that they’re heeding
a primal instinct to fight injustice — even if it only means making the enemy
pay the highest possible price. If we sell our lives dearly now, the instinct
may whisper, future attackers will think twice about coming after our kin.
The Ukrainians at Azovstal are fighting for one another, for their country, and
for history. Maybe, like the rebel samurai and so many others before, they’re
also fighting just because the whims of fate placed them in a particular place
at a particular time, and they heard the call to take their last stand. If they
perish, it will be on their own terms, and with honor.
Who Is Slaughtering the Hazaras of Afghanistan?
Camelia Entekhabifard/Asharq Al Awsat/April 22/2022
The terrorist Haqqani group, a terrorist wing of the Taliban, has been
responsible for the bloodiest suicide attacks on the people of Afghanistan and
the foreign forces stationed in this country during the past two decades.
When the United States gave up Afghanistan to Taliban, Haqqanis entered the
government and Sirajuddin Haqqani, a terrorist fugitive wanted by the FBI, was
put in charge of the interior ministry. This is a man for whom a 10 million
dollar reward had been set.
Taliban came to power last summer. In the months since, despite what the US and
international organizations claimed, calm and security have not been restored in
Afghanistan.
Those who worked for the previous Afghan government are being murdered and
massacred. Targeted bombings come one after the other. The US-Taliban agreement
has meant only death, hunger and displacement for the Afghan nation. Popular
resistance continues in Panjshir, Andarab, Mazar Sharif, Khost and Kabul. But so
does the repression by Taliban. But massacring the Hazaras of Afghanistan in a
targeted suicide operation can be part of the strategy by Taliban to gain the
attention of the international community.
Eight months since it came to power, this hated government has not gained
recognition by international community. The only weapon it has is to vicitimize
itself, exaggerate the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and use the
name of ISIS to create terror amongst the Westerners.
Taliban has now created an imaginary group (which, in reality, consists of
suicide bombers trained by themselves) which it introduces as ISIS so as to not
take responsibility for murdering of innocent people.
Meanwhile, during a trip to Turkey, Taliban’s foreign minister claimed that
ISIS’s reach was exaggerated and the terrorist group had no base in Afghanistan.
The suicide bombers are a death brigade for Sirajuddin Haqqani. This is why,
last fall, he went to see the family of suicide bombers (martyrs, as Taliban
calls them) in Kabul’s Hotel Intercontinental. He praised the families of 1,500
suicide bombers in Afghanistan and dedicated a monthly salary for them. For the
first time, Haqqani openly admitted to Taliban running suicide bombers and
called them “heroes of the homeland.”
Haqqani was meeting these families in the very hotel that, in 1996, was the site
of an attack by five armed militants. Following hours of clashes, 22 were killed
and more than 40 wounded.
“The attack on Hotel Intercontinental Kabul was led by Prophet Mohammad and he
has issued a visa to paradise for the martyrs,” Haqqani says in a recently
released voice audio recording, without the time or place of its recording being
clear. Such words are considered heresy by the world’s Muslim population; but
for those who are brainwashed and trained for decades for suicide operations,
the word of Haqqani, who is a religious cult leader, counts for something.
Last month, the leader of the Haqqanis, for the first time, openly, and without
hiding his face, attended the graduation ceremony of a police academy in Kabul.
Speaking to the graduates, he said: “To win your confidence, I will appear by
you, openly, in media.” He went on to make mistakes in his recitation of the
Holy Quran. A man who has used the name of religion to train death platoons for
years, and to massacre the people of Afghanistan, started reciting a verse from
the Al Imran chapter of the Quran but failed to finish the verse.
The number of suicide bombers trained by Taliban and Haqqanis is not clear. But
based on the videos recently published of the suicide groups of Alfateh al-Mosakkar
(linked to Kandahar-based Taliban) and the Al-Mansouri in the north (linked to
the interior ministry or Sirajuddin Haqqani), it can be estimated that Taliban
boasts 2,000 to 3,000 brainwashed soldiers in its suicide or so-called martyrdom
units.
Recent suicide attacks on Hazara schools and mosques in Afghanistan, from Kabul
to Kunduz and Mazar Sharif, are similar to the suicide attacks that had taken
place in this country in the last 20 years.
Targeted killing of Hazaras can be a Taliban strategy to gain the attention of
international community by fake-creating an ISIS. Taliban uses massacres to
claim ISIS as an international and regional threat that also disrupts order and
security in Afghanistan. Taliban hopes that with repeated killings of innocent
Hazaras in mosques and schools it can gain recognition and aid from the West.
The country Joe Biden gave to Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mulla Baradar now threatens
all its neighbors, including Pakistan and Uzbekistan, with US-made weapons left
behind by the US military.
The worst oppression and medieval tortures is being committed against the people
of Afghanistan, including Hazaras, Tajiks Uzbeks, Hindus and Ismailis. The world
is blind to the crimes of this primitive group, which has descended upon the
country from its cave bases.
Taliban’s new policy, using the name of ISIS for suicide bombers, aims to
establish its sovereignty, built on the blood and suffering of the people of
Afghanistan.
In a joint project with human rights groups, the New York Times reported on the
killing or disappearance of 500 former government employees by Taliban. The
shocking torture of Colonel Qassem Qaem and the brutal killing of this young
man; disappearance of Alie Azizi, the former head of Herat’s women prison; mass
graves for Panjshiris; beating up women and girls; torture and arrest of
protesting journalists and citizens; these are just some of the news that speak
of a grand crime against the people of this country.
The main responsibility for these crimes is on the shoulder of those who, for 20
years, spoke of democracy and defending human rights, but ended up giving the
country to terrorists. The massacring of Afghanistan’s Hazras is part of this
criminal policy of oppression by Taliban against the wronged and honorable
people of Afghanistan.
France: A Leap into the Unknown?
Amir Taheri/Asharq Al Awsat/April 22/2022
Until even two weeks ago, most political analysts regarded France as the current
leader of the European Union with President Emmanuel Macron the point-man in
dealing with the crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Macron gave some credence to that analysis with almost daily calls to Vladimir
Putin and trips to various European capitals, refusing to take the campaign
trail in the presidential election.
Now, however, as the second round of the election on Sunday draws near, Macron
is crisscrossing France to secure, as he says, “every vote”.
Having won the first round with only four percent of the votes ahead of his
closest challenger, Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate, Macron is no longer
certain he would be able to sail to victory as he did five years ago against the
same rival. Today, even the most optimistic opinion polls show Macron winning
with a small majority that, given last minute surprises, might not even
materialize.
Several things have happened in the past five years.
To start with, having devoted much of his time to casting France as the leader
of the European Union and a big player in the international arena, to many
French people, Macron has appeared remote, if not struck by hubris-hence his
undeserved sobriquet of “Jupiter”. In a country where everyone thinks of himself
as the best of all creation and of France as the greatest nation on earth, being
cast as the Olympian Jupiter is a recipe for unpopularity.
In the same period, with the help of a Madison Avenue PR firm, Ms. Le Pen has
reshaped herself from a Passionaria of racial hatred into a cuddly maternal
figure capable of understanding all children of la patrie (fatherland).
To be sure, Le Pen still talks of shipping immigrants back to their original
countries, preventing Muslims from replacing French civilization with their
“barbarity”, and reserving certain social benefits to the “real French”.
However, she has centered her campaign on complaints about the cost of living
and a promise to preserve retirement age at 62 years, the lowest in European
Union. Commentators say Le Pen has “softened” her image just as the Medicis
sugar-coated their poison pills.
Even then, there is no doubt that Le Pen on the right and Jean-Luc Melenchon on
the radical left represent a large segment of French electorate (together they
collected more than 40 percent of the votes) that feels ignored if not
humiliated by Parisian elites with Macron as their current champion.
As always this feeling of humiliation, which also contributed to Donald Trump’s
victory in 2018 and later to Brexit, is partly subjective.
But a recent tour of some of Le Pen and Melenchon’s support bases, largely
confined to the de-industrialized deserts of the northeast and southern France,
revealed an appreciable gap between the prosperous France of most big cities and
the just-about-managing life-style of many in medium and smaller towns.
It was no accident that Le Pen and Melenchon won a good number of their votes in
constituencies that had supported the Socialist and Communist parties for
decades. Both also benefited from the melt down of classical centrist parties of
left and right. If one goes by numbers, in the first round of the election, 72
percent voted against Macron and 77 percent against Le Pen. The two finalists
collected just over half of the votes cast. Taken together, the three pro-Putin
candidates, Le Pen, Melenchon and Eric Zemmour, collected 53 percent of the
votes. This raises two important questions.
First, would a narrowly elected president have the political legitimacy to
embark on a course of radical reforms that France needs and the stature to claim
leadership in the European Union?
Secondly, would Le Pen, if elected, be able to form a credible government even
if the Zemmour supporters join her camp?
Le Pen talks of forming a government of “national unity”. However, her
ramshackle party, lacking structures in most parts of France, is unlikely to win
a majority in parliamentary elections while no other party is prepared to serve
in a government she might lead.
A Le Pen presidency could face other hurdles. She wants to take France out of
NATO’s military joint-command, a move that would upset relations with the US and
most other EU members. She no longer wants to quit the Euro but promises to
reduce France’s contribution to EU projects.
In the current campaign, Le Pen has tried to explain away her long abiding
admiration for Vladimir Putin as “the kind of strong leader that France needs”,
and her endorsement of the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
More importantly in terms of here-and-now she says she well oppose European
schemes to impose a total ban on gas imports from Russia, thus ensuring a
regular source of income for Putin.
There are other signs that her heart still belongs to Putin if not as daddy at
least as sugar daddy who financed the National Front and its new epiphany
National Assembling through low interest loans from Russian banks.
Le Pen has also tried to camouflage her party’s visceral anti-Americanism,
partly highlighted by her father Jean-Marie Le Pen’s admiration for the
Khomeinist regime in Tehran. (Jean-Marie, now in his 90s, attended Islamic
Revolution Day parties at the Iranian Embassy in Paris for over a quarter of a
century.)
In the current campaign Marine’s anti-Americanism has been present in filigree
with slogans such as “Macron is we an errand boy for Joe Biden.”
Desperate to shift attention from domestic issues, Macron has tried to present
the current election as a referendum on European Union.
But, although he is the most pro-EU French president since Valery Giscard
d’Estaing, his song and dance about Europe sounds contrived. His attacks on
Hungarian Premier Viktor Orban and his criticism of the Polish government’s
emphasis on national sovereignty are also ill-advised at a time that the issue
of national sovereignty moves center-stage throughout Europe.
Worse still, because the EU is no longer as popular in France as it was a decade
ago, talking of a referendum on Frexit in all but name is highly risky.
Would a loss by Macron open the thorny issue of French membership of EU?
Would a wafer-thin win by Macron give Frexiters, still a minority, fresh
incentive to push the issue top of the national agenda with the risk of heading
the country towards the unknown?
This is the third time in a generation that French electors are given a choice
between an incumbent they don’t specially like and a challenger that most find
unlikeable.
Many voters have told us in recent weeks that they still dream of a “real
election” in which one is able to choose with both head and heart. This time
round, however, the heart is out of the equation, leaving only the head. And
that may give Macron a second term - just.
Question: "Is it wrong to be angry with God?"
GotQuestions.org?/Friday, 22 April, 2022
Answer: Being angry at God is something that many people, both believers and
unbelievers, have wrestled with throughout time. When something tragic happens
in our lives, we ask God the question, “Why?” because it is our natural
response. What we are really asking Him, though, is not so much “Why, God?” as
“Why me, God?” This response indicates two flaws in our thinking. First, as
believers we operate under the impression that life should be easy, and that God
should prevent tragedy from happening to us. When He does not, we get angry with
Him. Second, when we do not understand the extent of God’s sovereignty, we lose
confidence in His ability to control circumstances, other people, and the way
they affect us. Then we get angry with God because He seems to have lost control
of the universe and especially control of our lives. When we lose faith in God’s
sovereignty, it is because our frail human flesh is grappling with our own
frustration and our lack of control over events. When good things happen, we all
too often attribute it to our own achievements and success. When bad things
happen, however, we are quick to blame God, and we get angry with Him for not
preventing it, which indicates the first flaw in our thinking—that we deserve to
be immune to unpleasant circumstances.
Tragedies bring home the awful truth that we are not in charge. All of us think
at one time or another that we can control the outcomes of situations, but in
reality it is God who is in charge of all of His creation. Everything that
happens is either caused by or allowed by God. Not a sparrow falls to the ground
nor a hair from our head without God knowing about it (Matthew 10:29-31). We can
complain, get angry, and blame God for what is happening. Yet if we will trust
Him and yield our bitterness and pain to Him, acknowledging the prideful sin of
trying to force our own will over His, He can and will grant us His peace and
strength to get us through any difficult situation (1 Corinthians 10:13). Many
believers in Jesus Christ can testify to that very fact. We can be angry with
God for many reasons, so we all have to accept at some point that there are
things we cannot control or even understand with our finite minds.
Our understanding of the sovereignty of God in all circumstances must be
accompanied by our understanding of His other attributes: love, mercy, kindness,
goodness, righteousness, justice, and holiness. When we see our difficulties
through the truth of God’s Word—which tells us that our loving and holy God
works all things together for our good (Romans 8:28), and that He has a perfect
plan and purpose for us which cannot be thwarted (Isaiah 14:24, 46:9-10)—we
begin to see our problems in a different light. We also know from Scripture that
this life will never be one of continual joy and happiness. Rather, Job reminds
us that “man is born to trouble as surely as sparks fly upward” (Job 5:7), and
that life is short and “full of trouble” (Job 14:1). Just because we come to
Christ for salvation from sin does not mean we are guaranteed a life free from
problems. In fact, Jesus said, “In this world you will have trouble,” but that
He has “overcome the world” (John 16:33), enabling us to have peace within, in
spite of the storms that rage around us (John 14:27).
One thing is certain: inappropriate anger is sin (Galatians 5:20; Ephesians
4:26-27, 31; Colossians 3:8). Ungodly anger is self-defeating, gives the devil a
foothold in our lives, and can destroy our joy and peace if we hang on to it.
Holding on to our anger will allow bitterness and resentment to spring up in our
hearts. We must confess it to the Lord, and then in His forgiveness, we can
release those feelings to Him. We must go before the Lord in prayer often in our
grief, anger, and pain. The Bible tells us in 2 Samuel 12:15-23 that David went
before the throne of grace on behalf of his sick baby, fasting, weeping, and
praying for him to survive. When the baby passed away, David got up and
worshiped the Lord and then told his servants that he knew where his baby was
and that he would someday be with him in God’s presence. David cried out to God
during the baby’s illness, and afterward he bowed before Him in worship. That is
a wonderful testimony. God knows our hearts, and it is pointless to try to hide
how we really feel, so talking to Him about it is one of the best ways to handle
our grief. If we do so humbly, pouring out our hearts to Him, He will work
through us, and in the process, will make us more like Him.
The bottom line is can we trust God with everything, our very lives and the
lives of our loved ones? Of course we can! Our God is compassionate, full of
grace and love, and as disciples of Christ we can trust Him with all things.
When tragedies happen to us, we know God can use them to bring us closer to Him
and to strengthen our faith, bringing us to maturity and completeness (Psalm
34:18; James 1:2-4). Then, we can be a comforting testimony to others (2
Corinthians 1:3-5). That is easier said than done, however. It requires a daily
surrendering of our own will to His, a faithful study of His attributes as seen
in God’s Word, much prayer, and then applying what we learn to our own
situation. By doing so, our faith will progressively grow and mature, making it
easier to trust Him to get us through the next tragedy that most certainly will
take place.
So, to answer the question directly, yes, it is wrong to be angry at God. Anger
at God is a result of an inability or unwillingness to trust God even when we do
not understand what He is doing. Anger at God is essentially telling God that He
has done something wrong, which He never does. Does God understand when we are
angry, frustrated, or disappointed with Him? Yes, He knows our hearts, and He
knows how difficult and painful life in this world can be. Does that make it
right to be angry with God? Absolutely not. Instead of being angry with God, we
should pour out our hearts to Him in prayer, and trust that He is in control of
His perfect plan.