LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
May 08/2018
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani

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The worst is yet to come for Iran
Abdullah bin Bijad Al-Otaibi/Al Arabiya/May 07/18
Observers of the Iranian situation can clearly see that Iran is not living its best days during this historical phase in the region and the world.
Iranian decision makers have not yet understood or comprehended that what’s happening today on the domestic, regional and international levels against Iran is not a conspiracy but it’s simply a natural result of the regime’s policies and strategies over the past four decades.
On the domestic level, the Iranian people have been protesting on and off despite all the oppression and the expansion of dictatorial apparatuses following the Green Movement in 2009. There are still protests which have spread to different cities instead of decreasing.
The people have reached a point where they realize that there’s no hope from the regime of the guardian of the jurist which they know it will never be reformed or amended.
On the regional level – and with reservations over the clerics’ interferences in politics – we can notice three interesting cases in Arab countries which the Iranian regime has bragged that it controls their decision making process.
In Iraq, the highest Shiite marja (reference) in the country Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a fatwa (religious edict) warning of corrupt people and of those who failed from among the political category that dragged the Iraqi state and the people to the abyss and allowed the spread of sectarianism and terrorism and looted all of Iraq’s fortunes.
Sistani also said that this category has direct contact with what he called foreign states, i.e. the Iranian regime that’s violating Iraq’s sovereignty and hijacking the political decision.
The size of the dispute between Sistani and the traditional reference he represents, and which maintains the spirit of the Shiite sect, with what the guardian of the jurist’s regime represents as a version of a political Islam version within the Shiite sect, and which does not have any real religious roots, is well-known.
Iranian regime will find itself alone before a world that’s uniting against it and against its policies and it will realize that the worst is yet to come
Uncalculated adventures
In Lebanon, many Lebanese citizens have complained about the political process in the country and voiced their rejection of Hezbollah’s hijacking of the Shiite sect and state and its monopoly of the Shiite representation by force, violence and threats.
Hezbollah has engaged Lebanon’s Shiites in uncalculated adventures and sent youths to be killed in battles which they have nothing to do with, such as in Syria and Yemen, and involved them in international crimes related to terrorism and drug trafficking. The attempt to end Hezbollah’s monopoly of the Shiite representation thus carries significant symbolism at this stage.
In Yemen, the Houthis’ fate has become semi-finalized on the short term. On the long term, it’s definitely finalized. The world is talking in details about the militias’ crimes, brutality, bloodiness and ideological stubbornness which have led to their political failure and incapability to engage in any political settlement. The fall of the Houthi model in Yemen is just around the corner and it’s only a matter of time.
Morocco has recently severed its ties with Iran – a move that was widely supported by Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. Morocco’s decision is a natural result of the Iranian regime’s behavior and its military support of the separatist Polisario Front. Morocco has been well-aware of the non-sectarian political and cultural Shiism which Iran has been managing in the country.
However, the situation reached a decisive phase due to direct military support. Morocco’s rejection of the Iranian project in the region is a success to be added to many previous successes. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has documents which prove Iran has not stopped developing its nuclear program despite the deal it signed with the P5+1 group.
Threatening stability
If this is proven right, it will undermine this bad deal which the Obama administration reached with the Iranian regime and which allowed Tehran to expand, play with ballistic missiles and threaten the stability of Arab countries, primarily the Saudi kingdom. If these documents are true, they will support the vision of the Trump administration towards the Iranian regime’s evil role in the region and the world and its threats against the future of the world.
On the international level, the world is heading in the direction of condemning the Iranian regime and confronting it with all the required force over its flagrant violations of international laws and its policies which support chaos, extremism and terrorism.
In this significant historical phase on the level of international conflicts, North Korea is headed towards openness towards its southern neighbors and is attempting to communicate with the world and end a period of decades when it represented a factor for instability in East Asia and the world.
Following serious threats of military escalation between the US and North Korea, the latter seems to be in a phase in which it’s responding to pressure and opening a new page. A meeting between the American president and the North Korean president is being arranged in the next few weeks.
After mitigating North Korea’s crisis and international role, and after Trump unified his administration to make it more harmonious towards the Iranian regime – via the appointment of Mike Pompeo as Secretary of State and John Bolton as national security advisor – Iran seems to be living its worst days.
Meanwhile, Europe’s resistance in Britain, France and Germany has lessened as they begun to acknowledge the defects in the Iranian nuclear deal and to voice the importance of developing it upon pressures from the Trump administration, Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries. Iran’s days are thus headed towards what’s worse.
On May 12, Trump will announce his final position from the nuclear deal with Iran – a deal he described as the worst in history. The Iranian regime will find itself alone before a world that’s uniting against it and against its policies and it will realize that the worst is yet to come.
The new Saudi Arabia has worked hard to expose the threat of the Iranian regime and sought to besiege its destructive activities via political, diplomatic and military professional approaches which included both hard and soft power. The kingdom has also garnered major gains that are increasing with time, and it has associated these efforts and decisiveness with wisdom and patience.

Saudi Arabia’s quality of life program vs skeptics
Salman al-Dosary/Al Arabiya/May 07/18
Saudi Arabia’s Quality of Life program alongside its 234-page executive summary, announced by the Economic and Development Board last week, was a down-to-the-letter exceptionally gratifying read.
Why? ! In short, because the program goes beyond a vision and into noting down operational details with clear-cut numbers, specific timelines and initiatives set for fulfilling the ultimate goal of making Saudi Arabia the best place to live in for citizens and residents alike.
The program relies on two axes: the first being the development of the individual's lifestyle and the second being the enhancement of overall quality of life in the kingdom.
Upgrading the local environment so that it offers a new array of options that get citizens and residents involved in cultural, recreational and sporting activities is a part of the program’s plan for developing an individual’s lifestyle in the Kingdom.
On the second hand, widening the scope of activities inside the kingdom, diversifying the economy, and planning for at least three Saudi cities to rank top worldwide, will advance the Kingdom’s agenda on improving the overall quality of life in the kingdom.
Quality of Life 2020 aims to include at least three Saudi cities in the list of the top 100 cities in the world to live in by 2030. The program isn’t only focused on long-term goals but has set immediate goals to work.
Year 2022 is the deadline for promoting social sports activities, achieving excellence in several regional and global sports, and developing and diversifying recreational opportunities, meeting the needs of the population.
Upgrading the local environment so that it offers a new array of options that get citizens and residents involved in cultural, recreational and sporting activities is a part of the program’s plan
Rehabilitating economic zones
These goals are set to indirectly improve services provided in Saudi cities such as utilities, public transport, and urban landscape, as well as push the establishing of special areas and rehabilitating economic zones.
More so, the initiative is that it is only one of twelve other key programs identified by the Economic and Development Council as strategically vital for Saudi Arabia to achieve the goals of Kingdom Vision 2030.
Implementing programs in Saudi Arabia is being backed with effective cooperation between state ministries and institutions—nationwide, initiatives cannot be achieved if state bodies operate on an isolated-island principal.
In order to achieve satisfactory results on improving main aspects of life, such as infrastructure, transport, housing, urban design, environment, health care, economic and educational opportunities, security and the social environment, progress must be tightly tied to strict performance indicators.
It goes without saying that improving quality of life in Saudi cities will reflect positively on the welfare of citizens and residents, as well as visitors and tourists.
Developing strong infrastructure in Saudi cities, providing comprehensive services, enhancing social interaction, and offering both quality and diverse lifestyle choices are factors that motivate people and enhance social livelihood. It goes without saying that Saudi Arabia is stepping into an astounding future.
However, some skeptics choose to focus on the obstacles. Pessimists at every corner watch out closely for the smallest misfortunes to put to question the validity of change. They remain hesitant to believe that positive change is actually happening in Saudi Arabia.
It is true that the same people were blaming Saudi Arabia for its steadfastness and lack of flexibility in change, have now become full-time skeptics. They themselves never believed that Saudi Arabia would have a vision and a future project of such astronomical scale.
Nevertheless, doubters aren’t to be blamed-- it is not easy for them to imagine that a new Saudi Arabia is launched and won't slow down until it achieves listed aspirations. The proof of the pudding is in the eating, and skeptics will day by day be dismissed with ground-hard facts.

Iran’s not so straightforward exit from JCPOA
Dr. Mohamed A. Ramady/Al Arabiya/May 07/18
The world is waiting in suspense for May 12 to find out whether Iran sanctions will be waived or not.
US President Donald Trump has made no secret of his disdain for the 2015 nuclear accord negotiated by the Obama Administration between the “P5+1” – comprising the UN Security Council permanent five members, US, UK, France, Russia, China, plus Germany – and Iran.
Referred to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, or alternatively, he has even described it as “the worst deal ever”.
A narrower “EU-3” of British, French, and German negotiators, in close consultations with Brian Hook, the US State Department director of policy planning, have in recent weeks been negotiating a new framework to address the US concerns with JCPOA, incorporating and adding to its existing terms that may eventually be accepted by the White House. However, it is a very big bet.
France’s President Emmanuel Macron presented the broad outlines of that proposal to President Trump, with a follow-up by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. It calls for a series of separate new agreements, in effect a “JCPOA Plus,” although the White House may prefer to present it as an entirely new, more comprehensive “Framework Agreement.”
Following his rather extraordinary state visit and over-effusive show of friendship between the two presidents, Macron suggested that Trump might choose to exit the JCPOA anyway.
Even if Trump refuses to extend the specific waivers on Iran sanctions up for review on that date, sanctions may not be immediately reinstated
Not a binary choice
But it is not as simple as it sounds, as that would not be an immediate May 12 binary choice – yes or no. Even if Trump refuses to extend the specific waivers on Iran sanctions up for review on that date, sanctions may not be immediately reinstated and enforced.
And the US could, in theory – as Secretary of State designee Mike Pompeo suggested in testimony before the Senate – even continue to renegotiate the existing JCPOA.
An announcement of the re-imposition of the 2012 National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) would pull Iranian-oil importing countries Japan, South Korea, India, and China back into the US sanctions cross fire, even if not immediately. That would almost immediately put a chill on Iran’s ability to export oil.
Under the 2012 National Defence Authorization Act, an announcement to end the waivers would re-start the process of requiring countries to “significantly reduce” oil imports from Iran, and requiring any countries that do import from Iran to seek exemptions to avoid secondary financial sanctions from the US on their own state-owned financial institutions and central banks.
Even with those exemptions, they will still be required to “significantly reduce” their oil imports from Iran. In the past, the most directly affected countries have been China, Japan, South Korea, and India. Sanctions may not be immediately enforced, and they will require the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) to re-designate and tag affected entities.
New sanctions
An agreement in principle between the EU-3 and US should ideally come before the deadline on May 12 for the president to renew the waiver on a set of sanctions on Iran as agreed to by the Obama Administration after the 2015 JCPOA deal.
But that is just one in a series of rolling waivers. US sanctions on Iran came in four major pieces of legislation, each with its own mandated review period. The May 12 review will be for sanctions imposed under the 2012 NDAA (National Defence Authorization Act).
The other three sets of US sanctions are on a 180-day review period, and will come up for waivers in July. Those are for sanctions imposed under the ISA (Iran Sanctions Act), adopted in 1996 as the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act, the 2012 TRA (Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act), and the 2012 IFCA (Iran Freedom and Counter proliferation Act).
These acts broadly impose restrictions on investments in Iranian oil production, terrorism financing, revolutionary guard activities, shipping, and insurance. When push comes to shove, it is entirely within the US rights legally to unilaterally re-impose any, or all, of those sanctions.
The White House could in theory even decide to find a reason to declare Iran in non-compliance under Sections 36 and 37 of the JCPOA and set the clock ticking on a multistage international review process towards the “snap back,” or re-imposition, of a different series of UNSC sanctions.
Whether or not an agreement comes in time for President Trump’s May 12 deadline for the extension of a set of US sanctions, if the trans-Atlantic partners are close, the May 12 deadline can be glossed over by the White House until the next series of sanction waivers comes due in July.
Even with a new deal, however, the path forward is fraught with substantial risk. First, an EU3 proposal must not only pass muster with the White House, but will need approval of the member states of the EU as well. It is already broadly assumed that UN Security Council member Russia will not agree to additional new measures, nor will fellow P5 member China.
But the biggest wild card may now lie in Iran, namely in how Tehran responds to what looks increasingly certain – at a minimum – will be an additional series of “measures” imposed on the regime – whether threatened against future potential actions, or enforced right off the bat.
Needless to say, it would all also cast a pall over negotiations the US is about to enter into with North Korea, especially after the successful North- South Korea talks on ending their state of war. With one potential world crisis being doused, the international community will not wish for another to take its place.

Qatar and the two Koreas’ experience
Mohammed Al Shaikh/Al Arabiya/May 07/18
The Qataris say: Why don’t we take the two Koreas experience as a model and sit for dialogue and solve our problems as they did? Let us rationally address this comparison and its differences.
North Korea has nuclear power and its large population as a bargaining chip while South Korea has one of the world’s top 10 economies. Peace between them was thus justified and encouraged by mutual interests.
Qatar, however, has nothing but a satellite television channel, so the question here is: How could this small and marginal crisis be compared to that other crisis which was about to spark a third world war?
Exploiting wealth
Qatar is destined to go back to its Arab and Gulf depth but it must be disciplined for its own benefit and the benefit of its people first and then for the interests of Gulf states.
The ruling regime thinks that it can become an influential regional force thanks to its wealth. To achieve this illusion, it adopted the approach of harming others.
For Qatar to solve its problem, it has to go back to rationality and be politically realistic. It should realize that it is losing on all levels while its opponents are not losing anything worth mentioning.
For Qatar to solve its problem, it has to go back to rationality and be politically realistic. It should realize that it is losing on all levels while its opponents are not losing anything worth mentioning
The core of the problem is Qatar’s adoption of the Muslim Brotherhood, which all terrorist movements emerged from. The Brotherhood organization may have been an element that helped gain popularity in the past, however, after it was defeated in the so-called bloody Arab revolutions, it turned into an ill and exhausted pack that cannot keep up with the rest of the herd.
There is no salvation for Qatar and a solution for its crisis except by ending its support of the group and no longer financing it. Ending this support, if it is carried out with true intentions, would be a serious and important step to minimize the gap between Qatar and its neighbors.
Blackmailing neighbors
The masters of the regime of Hamad bin Khalifa and Hamad bin Jassim, which governs Qatar must realize that what was successful yesterday in blackmailing its neighbors through media outlets, has now become, probably one of the main reasons behind its crisis which it does not know how to get out of.
This crisis is also draining it on all levels and it is not getting anything in return of this major exhaustion. Politics, in many cases, sometimes call on one to accept the smallest harm to avoid a greater one.
Qatar, however, is ruled by what is called there the father emir, i.e. Hamad bin Khalifa, who is a mentally unstable man who no longer trusts even his closest associates so he hired a Turkish force to protect him from any coup, especially that the history of the ruling family there is full of coups and power struggles.
According to the news I have heard from inside Qatar, the Qataris are pessimistic and assert to anyone who asks them about their circumstances that the problem revolves around the father emir.
They await for his death as a solution to their crisis, especially that he is unwell and suffers from different health problems. They say that his death would give Emir Tamim the opportunity to regain power and repair what his father has corrupted.
The question the Qataris avoid answering is: What if he lives for long and continues with this this stubbornness and arrogance and continues to squander Qatar’s wealth? Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said: If the US transfers its base from Qatar to another country, the regime would fall within a week.
There is no solution for Qatar and its crisis except to cut it short and accept the conditions of Saudi Arabia and the boycotting countries.
Qatar should remember that it is not North Korea and no one will support it and oppose the other four boycotting countries, which are 10 times stronger. This is the truth that the Qataris must keep in mind.

Mike Pompeo and US diplomacy victories without bullets
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/May 07/18
“We are experiencing tough times, we have to face the challenges courageously and strongly… we need powerful diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to control Iran’s destabilizing actions in Syria, Yemen and the region”. This was a part of new US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech to his staff, who amount to more than 70,000.
The US has a huge capability to weaken and possibly eliminate any regime it opposes, without shooting a single bullet, Pompeo said. Which almost happened to the Iranian regime when Washington imposed further sanctions in 2006 after a Security Council resolution in response to the regime’s insistence on pursuing its nuclear project.
Sanctions included banning the export of many goods, including refined oil products to Iran, preventing banking transactions, suspending financial transactions between Iran and most of the world’s banks, and pursued international oil companies to prevent them from production in Iran. Washington prohibited insurance for the Iranian oil tankers and built an electronic wall that blocked all dealings including registering websites and internet services. Without dollars, information, banks and insurance the Iranian regime was stuck; it could not trade, import nor fulfill the needs of its people.
The events required complicated diplomatic work, political patience, and well-informed intelligence agencies to make sure that the decisions were being implemented; this is what Washington succeeded in during this period. Due to these immense pressures, the Iranian regime resorted to communicate in private with, after three years of Obama’s administration asking to negotiate.
These communications coincided with the Green Revolution in Tehran, which strongly impacted the regime. Then a long set of talks started between the two sides. Iran then had to be more submissive after the revolution in Syria, its strategic ally in the region. In exchange for Iran to suspend its nuclear project for military purposes, the US administration agreed along with its European allies to make a secret deal to lift economic sanctions on Iran while refraining from toppling the Syrian regime. The Iranians, who are skilled in bargaining, had realized that President Obama is ready to give them more in return for the agreement. Thus they took double what they wished for, including large amounts of financial payments which suspended all the hostile campaigns against them and overlooked their military expansion in the region.
Even with Washington’s serious mistakes, the diplomatic work it led for years had resulted in an important agreement that forced Khamenei’s regime to yield without shooting a single bullet.
Power of diplomacy
Even with Washington’s serious mistakes, the diplomatic work it led for years had resulted in an important agreement that forced Khamenei’s regime to yield without shooting a single bullet. This is the power of US diplomatic tools as described by Pompeo in his speech a few days ago. It seems it is doing the same thing with the North Korean regime. What’s worrying is that the same mistakes made in dealing with Iran might be repeated with North Korea, since the circumstances are identical. The current administration needs an urgent preliminary assessment of the situation before November, when the midterm elections will take place. The president’s party should win one of the two chambers, or else he will lose a lot of his authority and be victim to his Democrat opponents.
However, using diplomacy only to force the regime in Tehran to respect UN principles by suspending its activities and interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen would succeed but will not achieve quick results. The advantage of diplomacy is that there is no blood nor bullets, but it is very slow and its results would be too late for heated issues, such as wars.
The fear is that the North Korean regime would use Washington’s pressing desire, to have a historic nuclear agreement to exert more pressure. I do not rule out that the North Korean leader would try to rescue Khamenei, his ally, by convincing the Americans that if they retreated in any of their commitments to the Iranian deal it would affect their credibility in their negotiations with him. My fears might not be real, but we know the relationship between the two extreme regimes.