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Bible Quotation For Today/Parable of the Rich Man whose Land Produced abundantly/You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint Luke 12/16-21: 'Then he told them a parable: ‘The land of a rich man produced abundantly. And he thought to himself, "What should I do, for I have no place to store my crops?" Then he said, "I will do this: I will pull down my barns and build larger ones, and there I will store all my grain and my goods. And I will say to my soul, Soul, you have ample goods laid up for many years; relax, eat, drink, be merry." But God said to him, "You fool! This very night your life is being demanded of you. And the things you have prepared, whose will they be?" So it is with those who store up treasures for themselves but are not rich towards God.’

Bible Quotation For Today/Praise our God, all you his servants, and all who fear him, small and great.
Book of Revelation 19/01-02.05-09.11-13.16: After this I heard what seemed to be the loud voice of a great multitude in heaven, saying, ‘Hallelujah! Salvation and glory and power to our God, for his judgements are true and just; he has judged the great whore who corrupted the earth with her fornication, and he has avenged on her the blood of his servants.’ And from the throne came a voice saying, ‘Praise our God, all you his servants, and all who fear him, small and great.’Then I heard what seemed to be the voice of a great multitude, like the sound of many waters and like the sound of mighty thunder-peals, crying out, ‘Hallelujah! For the Lord our God the Almighty reigns. Let us rejoice and exult and give him the glory, for the marriage of the Lamb has come, and his bride has made herself ready; to her it has been granted to be clothed with fine linen, bright and pure’ for the fine linen is the righteous deeds of the saints.
And the angel said to me, ‘Write this: Blessed are those who are invited to the marriage supper of the Lamb.’ And he said to me, ‘These are true words of God.’Then I saw heaven opened, and there was a white horse! Its rider is called Faithful and True, and in righteousness he judges and makes war.
His eyes are like a flame of fire, and on his head are many diadems; and he has a name inscribed that no one knows but himself."He is clothed in a robe dipped in blood, and his name is called The Word of God. On his robe and on his thigh he has a name inscribed, ‘King of kings and Lord of lords’.

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 14-15/15
Yes for Revoking Citizenship for convicted Canadian Terrorists & Yes To Our MP. Mr. Harper/Elias Bejjani/October 14/15
Canadian Elections: Mr. Trudeau Lives in Another World/Elias Bejjani/14October/15
Aoun’s playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship/Michael Young/The National/October 14/15
Lebanon’s wet nightmare/Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/October 14/15
Hezbollah on alert in Lebanon/Now Lebanon/October 14/15
Why is Turkey's government choosing to protect itself instead of its citizens/Metin GurcanAl-Monitor/October 14/15
Islamic Jihad committed to truce...as long as Israel is/Mohammed Othman/Al-Monitor/October 14/15
Gaza tunnels, how did it all start/Fadi Shafei/ Al-Monitor/October 14/15
Iranian stocks continue two-year slump/Morteza Ramezanpour/October 14/15
Tunisia Nobel Peace Prize resonates across Middle East/Al-Monitor Staff/October 14/15
The One-Minute Guide to Obama's Foreign Policy/Daniel Pipes/Oct 13/15/
The Most Important Nobel Winner You've Never Heard Of/Sarah Feuer/Politico/Washington Institute/October 14/15
Whether Britain bombs ISIS or not, it will still be failing Syria/Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/October 14/15
West’s options limited against Russian escalation/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/October 14/15
The two U.N. speeches that hinted at Israeli-Palestinian escalation/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/October 14/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on October 14-15/15
Yes for Revoking Citizenship for convicted Canadian Terrorists & Yes To Our MP. Mr. Harper/Canadian Elections
Worth Watching/Tarek Fatah in an interview with the CBC/Canadian Elections
Canadian Elections: Mr. Trudeau Lives in Another World
Justin Trudeau's first idea/suggestion on how to deal with the genocidal actions of ISIS was to send winter coats/Dean Del Mastro/Canadian Elections
Aoun’s playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship
Lebanon’s wet nightmare
Report: Cabinet to Convene Friday to Adopt Shehayyeb's Trash Plan amid FPM Boycott
Report: Finishing Touches to Shehayyeb's Waste Plan to Be Placed Wednesday
Jumblat Holds In Saudi Arabia with its King and Saad Al Hariri
STL Sets Date for Start of Trial in Case against al-Amin, al-Akhbar
Sea of Mourners as Zahle Bids Farewell to Elias Skaff
Nasrallah: Attempts to Reactivate Govt. were Foiled for Personal, Partisan Reasons
Hezbollah on alert in Lebanon

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on October 14-15/15
Iran Broadcasts Footage of Underground Missile Base'
US: Iran likely violated international missile laws
Two Iranian Commanders Killed in Syria
Terror slowdown as Israelis absorb first shock and gear up for the next round
Israel Sets up East Jerusalem Checkpoints after Violence Spikes
Three Top Ankara Police Officials Sacked after Bombings
Turkey Summons U.S., Russia Envoys over Support for Syrian Kurds
Syrian Air Raids Pound Rebel Neighborhoods around Damascus
Iraqi Forces Say Ramadi Offensive Near
U.S., Russia to Hold Talks on Crowded Syria Skies
Kerry, Fabius to Discuss Israeli-Palestinian Violence
Saudi king and French PM seek to enhance ties
U.N. urges Iraq’s feuding Kurds to respect democracy
Iranian MPs arrive in Damascus before joint offensive
Two Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers reportedly killed in Syria

Yes for Revoking Citizenship for convicted Canadian Terrorists & Yes To Our MP. Mr. Harper
Elias Bejjani/October 14/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/10/13/elias-bejjani-yes-for-revoking-citizenship-for-convicted-canadian-terrorists-yes-to-our-mp-mr-harper/
Without any form of cowardice, hypocrisy, Dhimmitude or Taqqia, Mr. Steven Harper, our patriotic Canadian PM, and solidly supported by his Conservative Party took all the legal and well calculated needed measures and procedures to revoke the citizenship of those convicted terrorists who prove to be a real threat for Canada's set of values and for its peaceful life style of tolerance, law, order, democracy, and responsible freedom.
Mr. Harper put this deterring law (Bill C51) in action after very hard and laborious work. Recently this law was implemented practically by revoking the citizenship of a convicted terrorist who planned with others to hurt Canada and the Canadians.
Meanwhile the Liberal Party and its leader are cajoling and appeasing terrorism and terrorists openly.
This Harper-Conservative bravery, transparency and patriotism shows clearly how much, We, all Canadians need Mr. Harper to win a parliamentary majority to form the new government in a bid to keep our great country safe and well protected from terrorism and terrorists.
Let us all especially we, the Canadians who have tasted the bitterness, agony, destruction, humiliation, persecution and horror of terrorism and terrorists in our original countries vote strongly for Mr. Harper and for his party and at the same time advocate loudly for them.
Yesterday, on my Face Book page, A friend who is like me a Canadian-Lebanese citizen criticized my strong and loud advocacy for Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party and advised me as a friend not to bet on a losing horse. Below is my response:
Canadian Elections: I am a believer, not a Gambler
In life as I understand it, you have to decide where you stand, with who and for what reasons or objectives. Personally I do not bet because I am not a gambler, but a faithful person who lives strictly in accordance to a set of solid convictions and beliefs in each and every life domain including politics. Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party match these convictions and beliefs and that is why I support them all the way while at the same time loudly and openly advocate for the patriotic and ethical needs to vote for them. In summary losing or winning are not determining factors that motivate or dictate on me to change who I am, what I stand for, and most importantly who I am. Meanwhile, I will not have a problem with the elections' outcome, no matter what, because Canada is a free and democratic country, and who ever wins in the parliamentary elections will be the Canadians' majority free choice.
Long Live Canada
Long Live peace and freedom

NB: Worth Watching/Tarek Fatah in an interview with the CBC
13 October/15/Canadian Activist Tarek Fatah in an interview through the CBC explains the Saudi damaging role in all that has to do with the Niqab issue in the Canadian Parliamentary elections and confirms that Niqab has nothing to do with Islam.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=724263&binId=1.810401&playlistPageNum=1#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=Facebook&_gsc=abbWB6V

Canadian Elections: Mr. Trudeau Lives in Another World
Elias Bejjani/14October/15
Mr. Trudeau, leader of the Liberal Party is politically disconnected, completely detached and alienated from the actuality and reality of the Canadian Peoples' needs and from all the global unfolding events, especially in regards to terrorism and terrorists.
Sadly at the same time he is not ready, prepared or even qualified to be Canada's PM. Therefore We, Canadians from all cultures and walks of live and in all provinces are required to vote on Monday and give a respectable majority to Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party

Justin Trudeau's first idea/suggestion on how to deal with the genocidal actions of ISIS was to send winter coats.
Dean Del Mastro/October 14/15/In deciding who you are going to vote for on Monday please keep in mind that we are living in dangerous, not difficult times. Anyone that feels that Justin Trudeau or Maryam Monsef have either the experience or knowledge to deal with a rapidly crumbling international comunity is fooling themselves. Remember Justin Trudeau's first idea/suggestion on how to deal with the genocidal actions of ISIS was to send winter coats.

Aoun’s playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship
Michael Young/The National/October 14/15
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/aouns-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-brinkmanship
It was of questionable judgement for Michel Aoun to organise a triumphalist political rally last Sunday near Lebanon’s presidential palace in the Beirut suburb of Baabda. A quarter of a century ago, the palace was the site of Mr Aoun’s ignominious defeat at the hands of Syria’s military, from whom he fled to the safety of the French embassy. Much has changed since then. Mr Aoun is now politically allied with the Syrian regime and Hizbollah. In 1989, as commander of the army and head of a military government, Mr Aoun embarked on a so-called “war of liberation” to force Syria to withdraw its army from Lebanon. He failed when, on October 13, 1990, the Syrians bombed him out of the presidential palace.
And yet some things have not changed. Just as Mr Aoun sought to manipulate the anti-Syrian rallies of 1989-90 to bring about his election as president of Lebanon, so too, last weekend, did he view his march in Baabda as leverage to be elected. This determination has effectively blocked the Lebanese political system since May 2014. Unless guaranteed of winning the vote beforehand, Mr Aoun has prevented a quorum in parliament to elect a new president. He has also hindered cabinet work, arguing that as the Maronite Christian presidency is vacant, Christian ministers collectively represent him, therefore all government decisions must be taken by unanimity. Mr Aoun’s obstructionism notwithstanding, he has been supported in his efforts by Hizbollah, which has publicly said it backs him for the presidency. While some have argued the party is leading Mr Aoun on in pursuit of its own agenda, the reality is more nuanced. Hizbollah not only regards Mr Aoun as a politician who will defend its interests, it may well believe he will work to amend the constitution to the Shias’ advantage. Both Hizbollah and Mr Aoun feel now is the time to benefit from the recent nuclear accord with Iran. They have, rightly, interpreted the deal as a boost for the Islamic Republic, shifting the balance of power in the region to its benefit. Therefore, they believe, this balance must be reflected in Lebanon through a pro-Hizbollah president and, very probably, a constitutional order that can secure and expand Shia gains.
While Hizbollah has not openly defined its aims, party officials have long talked about an overhaul of the sectarian political system. According to Lebanon’s 1989 constitution, agreed in the Saudi resort of Taif, representation in parliament, the government and the civil service is 50-50 between Christians and Muslims. However, some Shia politicians have indicated that Hizbollah wants to put in place a system of thirds: a third for the Shia, a third for Sunnis and a third for Maronite Christians, with smaller communities receiving shares within this framework. Mr Aoun appears to agree with this. While Christians would lose representation through such a scheme, the rationale of Mr Aoun and his son-in-law, foreign minister Gebran Bassil, is that many Christian parliamentarians and ministers are already appointed or brought to office by Muslim politicians, therefore the reduction in representation would not be a net loss for communal influence.
More important, to Mr Aoun and Mr Bassil, a structural majority of the Christians who back him and Shia would maintain Sunnis at a permanent disadvantage. This reflects their innate fear of Sunnis, whom they regard as oppressors of regional minorities. The crude judgement has gained traction as the war in Syria has allowed jihadi groups to proliferate. It also explains Mr Aoun’s sympathy for Syrian president Bashar Al Assad. While Mr Aoun is over 80, Mr Bassil’s recent elevation to the post of president of the Free Patriotic Movement, Mr Aoun’s political party, opens up new possibilities for Hizbollah. Mr Aoun recently averted an FPM election he knew Mr Bassil would lose and, instead, imposed his victory undemocratically. Left unsaid is that if Mr Aoun were to die before becoming president, Hizbollah would probably shift its support to Mr Bassil. It has been a strange path for Mr Aoun. He has been most responsible for perpetuating the debilitating political vacuum since May 2014. While claiming to defend Lebanese sovereignty, he has partnered with a party, Hizbollah, that has created a state-within-a-state in Lebanon. While purporting to be above sectarian calculations, Mr Aoun has behaved in the most narrowly sectarian of ways, indifferent to the polarisation he has exacerbated, greatly harming Christian-Sunni relations in particular. Indeed, Sunni rejection of him, both in Lebanon and among the Sunni-majority Arab states, is now Mr Aoun’s greatest barrier to getting elected. Mr Aoun’s brinkmanship will continue and he will not relent until he is voted into office. Yet Mr Aoun’s red lines are defined by Hizbollah, which will back him to the hilt, but does not want Lebanon to be dangerously destabilised as a consequence. However, as Mr Aoun showed in 1990, in pursuit of the presidency, destructive inconsistency is no vice.
**Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star in Beirut

Lebanon’s wet nightmare
Alex Rowell/Now Lebanon/October 14/15
With huge quantities of garbage still strewn, uncollected, across the valleys, riverbanks, and roadsides of Beirut and Mount Lebanon as a result of the months-long waste disposal crisis, environmental experts have been warning for some time that the advent of the winter rain season could spark a grave health crisis, as showers drive pollutants from exposed trash into the groundwater, contaminating household water supplies. Following several rains in the past fortnight, some of them heavy, fears have been voiced by some specialists that damage may already have been done to water quality. The rock that forms Lebanon’s terra firma is highly permeable, meaning liquid on its surface absorbs comparatively quickly into the groundwater.
However, one governmental organization tasked with, among other things, monitoring water quality told NOW Tuesday that there was not yet any cause for concern above and beyond that which existed before the garbage crisis. “Currently, we don’t have evidence of [further] contamination,” said Dr. Paul Said, head of the laboratory department at the Establishment of the Water of Beirut & Mount Lebanon (EBML). “We are observing everything, and nothing has changed.”Which is not to say the water is free from any pollutants. Said told NOW that untreated water coming out of many natural springs at present is highly contaminated – and the problem is getting worse. “In some springs the contamination started to double […] we even found a new kind of bacteria that was not known before.” Disconcerting as that may sound, water quality expert Dr. May Jurdi of the American University of Beirut’s Environmental Health Department told NOW the state of untreated spring water mattered little, because the water used in households was almost entirely treated by chlorine.
“The water which is being pumped [goes through] pumping stations and water treatment plants, and disinfection by chlorination,” said Jurdi. “The water you get [is] treated, mostly, it’s not the water you get directly [e.g. from a spring].”Dr. Said, however, countered that chlorination itself carries potentially severe health risks. “If you want to increase the chlorine percentage then you will be using a cancerous substance in water,” Said told NOW. “This is our grave concern that we hope we will not reach.” There are cases, Said added, where chlorine has already been applied at what the EBML considers the maximum safe dosage, and the water has either had to be treated with other, less effective means, such as flocculation, or simply not used.
The potentially more serious hazard, however, said Jurdi – echoing what environmentalists have told NOW previously – is that of “leaching;” that is, of the rainwater mixing with toxic chemicals as it passes through the garbage and thus dragging them into the groundwater once absorbed. “I’ll be worried later on about the increase in the leaching of chemical substances, because rain is like a weak acid, and if you have all the trash scattered around, it may leach some of this,” said Jurdi. On the one hand, contrary to some reports that this prospect poses an immediate danger to the water supply, Jurdi told NOW it would take “years” for the leached chemicals to accumulate to a hazardous extent.
By the same token, however, any leachate that did make it into underground aquifers would also take a long time to be rooted out, according to Dr. Christian Khalil, assistant professor of environmental toxicology at the Lebanese American University.“The leachates (cocktails of chemicals and heavy metals) will have the potential to get to underground water,” said Khalil in an email to NOW. “This will spell disastrous consequences as the underground water, due to its low flow and not being exposed to sunlight, does not have the capacity to break down some of these chemicals and heavy metals. Contaminating the aquifers will take many, many, many years to be naturally purged and will definitely affect the quality and safety of drinking waters for years to come.”
Even where leachate doesn’t make it into the groundwater, such as largely concrete Beirut, its effects may plague Lebanon for a similar length of time in all kinds of other ways, Khalil added. “[In Beirut] the majority of contaminants will be transported mainly by surface water and end up in the Mediterranean Sea. That will be the main challenge, as the contaminants will become bioavailable and will biomagnify as they move up in the food chain. They will accumulate in the sediments. Future catches of fishes will have very high heavy metal and chemical concentrations, potentially posing risks to human health. […] The leachates from [the] Naameh landfill [are] already being trucked out and dumped off the coast of Beirut in Karantina, creating an environmental time bomb for people catching fish in the areas or in neighboring areas.”Unless and until the waste disposal crisis is resolved, and in the absence of municipal action, Dr. Said proposes that citizens take it upon themselves to ensure that garbage is removed from areas most susceptible to water immersion. “The solution is to protect the sources of water – to clean up and clear around the wells, springs, and irrigation canals,” he told NOW.
Otherwise, “God knows what will happen next.”
Alex Rowell tweets @disgraceofgod/Amin Nasr contributed reporting.

Report: Cabinet to Convene Friday to Adopt Shehayyeb's Trash Plan amid FPM Boycott
Naharnet/October 14/15/Cabinet is expected to convene on Friday to adopt Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb's waste disposal plan, reported the daily al-Mustaqbal on Wednesday. Ministerial sources said: “The session will be its last due to the obstruction of the Free Patriotic Movement.” FPM chief MP Michel Aoun stated on Tuesday that his ministers will not attend a cabinet meeting aimed at addressing the waste crisis due to his objection to the failure to tackle the contentious issue of security promotions and appointments. Other sources meanwhile told al-Mustaqbal that Hizbullah Ministers Mohammed Fneish and Hussein al-Hajj Hassan are expected to attend Friday's session. The party had informed concerned officials that FPM Ministers Jebran Bassil and Elias Bou Saab will be boycotting the meeting. Shehayyeb had held talks on Tuesday with Prime Minister Tammam Salam and Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq on the trash crisis. Aoun's insistence to have his son-in-law, Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, appointed as army commander has stalled the government and left it paralyzed as his ministers have boycotted the cabinet sessions.

Report: Finishing Touches to Shehayyeb's Waste Plan to Be Placed Wednesday
Naharnet/October 14/15/Joint efforts by Hizbullah and the AMAL movement have led to an agreement over two sites for possible landfills to be used according to Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb's waste disposal plan, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. Prime Minister Tammam Salam's sources told the daily that technical, geological, and environment experts are expected to visit the two sites later on Wednesday to determine their illegibility. Only one of the sites will be used for a Bekaa landfill, while the other one will be established in Srar in Akkar, explained the daily. Shehayyeb is keen to keep these Bekaa locations secret until the right moment, added al-Joumhouria given the objections of locals of various regions to allow their land to be used for garbage disposal. A meeting was held on Tuesday between Salam, Shehayyeb, Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq and concerned officials to follow up on the waste disposal crisis and efforts to resolve it. The officials and experts will hold a “final meeting” on Thursday to take a stand on the issue. “A cabinet session will be called to session based on their findings and to introduce any amendments to Shehayyeb's proposal,” said al-Joumhouria. Shehayyeb had announced on Tuesday that a landfill will be established in al-Bekaa after the necessary geological studies had been made. He stressed that it will be a sanitary landfill that will hold the waste of nearby areas, as well as those of Beirut and its suburbs. Lebanon was plunged in a waste disposal crisis following the July 17 closure of the Naameh landfill, which resulted in garbage piling up on the streets. Numerous proposals had been made by officials to dump the trash in various landfills throughout Lebanon, but they were met with rejection by local residents of those areas.

Jumblat Holds In Saudi Arabia with its King and Saad Al Hariri
Agencies/October 14/15/Progressive Socialist Party chief MP Walid Jumblat held talks on Wednesday with both the Saudi King and the head of the Mustaqbal Movement MP Saad Hariri in Saudi Arabia.A statement from the former premier's office said that the two officials met in Riyadh to discuss the latest local developments in Lebanon, most notably the political deadlock over the election of a president. Voice of Lebanon radio (100.5) had reported earlier that Jumblat had held a meeting with King Salman. The MP had traveled to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. He is accompanied by his son Taimur and Health Minister Wael Abou Faour. Regional and international issues will be the focus of talks between Jumblat and Saudi officials, who had recently paid visits to Moscow and Paris, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Wednesday. Jumblat's meeting with the Saudi king was a real achievement because the kingdom was angry and disappointed since Jumblat took a vital role in knocking down Hariri's government against the Saudi wishes. An official Saudi very short release announced the meeting and photo also was distributed.

STL Sets Date for Start of Trial in Case against al-Amin, al-Akhbar
Naharnet/October 14/15/Special Tribunal for Lebanon Contempt Judge Nicola Lettieri on Wednesday set a January 28, 2016 date for the start of trial in the contempt case against al-Akhbar newspaper and its editor-in-chief Ibrahim al-Amin, the STL said in a statement. “In a scheduling order issued today, the Judge set a date for a Pre-Trial Conference on 11 December 2015 at 3:30 pm (CET),” it added. “The Parties shall make opening statements and the Amicus Prosecutor shall present his case-in-chief from 28-29 January 2016 and 1-2 February 2016, as needed,” the court said. It added that “the Defense shall present its case, if any, from 25-26 and 29 February 2016 and 1 March 2016.” Al-Amin and Akhbar Beirut S.A.L are each charged with one count of contempt and obstruction of justice. The initial appearances of the Accused were held on May 29, 2014. On January 23, 2015, the STL Appeals Panel unanimously decided that the court does have jurisdiction to hear cases of obstruction of justice against legal persons in the case against al-Amin and al-Akhbar, reversing a previous decision by Lettieri. Al-Amin and al-Akhbar, as well as al-Jadeed TV and its deputy chief editor Karma Khayat, had been charged with contempt by the tribunal after they disclosed details of alleged STL witnesses. The initial hearing in the contempt case was held on May 13, 2014 at the STL's headquarters in The Hague, amid the absence of al-Amin who later appeared before the court via video conference. On September 28, Lettieri sentenced Khayat to a fine of 10,000 euros on charges of “interfering with the administration of justice” by failing to remove online content on alleged witnesses. The judge found Khayat guilty and Al-Jadeed S.A.L. not guilty with respect to the charges under Count 2, meaning for failing to remove the information on the alleged witnesses from al-Jadeed TV’s website and YouTube channel despite an order by the STL Pre-Trial Judge to do so. Lettieri found both Khayat and Al-Jadeed S.A.L. “not guilty with respect to the charges under Count 1 of the order in lieu of indictment.”The first count includes diffusing information that undermines public confidence in “the court's ability to protect the confidentiality of information about, or provided by, witnesses or potential witnesses.”However, Amicus Curiae Prosecutor Kenneth Scott announced in late September that he will appeal Lettieri's decisions. The STL has indicted five Hizbullah members for involvement in ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's Feb. 2005 assassination. Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah dismissed the court as a U.S.-Israeli scheme against his group and vowed that the accused will never be found.

Sea of Mourners as Zahle Bids Farewell to Elias Skaff
Naharnet/October 14/15/Mourners flooded the streets of Zahle and the neighboring towns on Wednesday for the funeral of late former minister and MP Elias Skaff, who was also the head of the Popular Bloc. A funeral mass was held at the Our Lady of Salvation Church, in the presence of former President Michel Suleiman, Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq and representatives of numerous political parties. "He was a man of moderation," Suleiman told reporters upon his arrival in Zahle. Mourners shot heavily into the air and launched fireworks as the coffin arrived in the Bekaa city. The convoy had moved slowly through several Bekaa towns after taking off in the morning from the American University of Beirut Medical Center in Hamra. It made brief stops in the town of Kahaleh outside Beirut and in the Bekaa towns of al-Mreijat, Jdita, Qob Elias, Chtaura, Saadnayel and Taalbaya, where it was received by popular delegations. Dozens of banners were installed to salute the late Zahle leader as his pictures decorated the balconies of a lot of houses in the region. Skaff passed away Saturday after a long battle with illness. He was 67. The late politician was first elected an MP in the eastern Bekaa Valley in 1992 following the death of his father ex-Minister Joseph Skaff and later in 1996. He was reelected for Zahle's Catholic seat in 2001 and 2005. He also served as minister in several governments between 2003 and 2009. Skaff was born in Cyprus on October 11, 1948 and spent his childhood in New Zealand with his mother where he received his primary eduction. He returned to Lebanon at the age of 16 and continued his education at a school in Shuweifat. He graduated in 1975 from the Faculty of Agriculture at the American University of Beirut. Skaff is survived by his wife Miriam Jebran Tawq and their two children Joseph and Jebran.

Nasrallah: Attempts to Reactivate Govt. were Foiled for Personal, Partisan Reasons
Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah lamented Wednesday the collapse of efforts aimed at reactivating the work of the paralyzed government, warning of a “more complicated situation” ahead. “All attempts to revive the government were foiled for personal and partisan reasons, which clearly means that we will face a more complicated situation,” said Nasrallah in a televised address marking the first night of the Ashura religious commemorations. “Those who torpedoed the solutions will realize that they have committed a big mistake,” he added. The Hizbullah chief cited “the paralysis of the institutions, the continued abduction of the servicemen, the social crises and the garbage crisis.”He, however, highlighted “the stable security situation and the ongoing dialogue” as “two positivities.”The cabinet is expected to convene on Friday to adopt Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb's waste disposal plan, reported the daily al-Mustaqbal on Wednesday. Ministerial sources said: “The session will be its last due to the obstruction of the Free Patriotic Movement.”Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun stated on Tuesday that his ministers will not attend the session due to his objection to the failure to tackle the contentious issue of security and military promotions and appointments. Other sources meanwhile told al-Mustaqbal that Hizbullah Ministers Mohammed Fneish and Hussein al-Hajj Hassan are expected to attend Friday's session. Turning to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Nasrallah said Hizbullah supports “the Palestinian people's resistance against the Israeli enemy in all its forms.” “We're witnessing a strong popular movement in occupied Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in what resembles the beginning of a third intifada,” he added. The upsurge in violence that began on October 1 has led some to warn of the risk of a third Palestinian intifada, or uprising. At least 30 Palestinians have been killed, including alleged knife attackers, some of them teenagers. Hundreds more have been wounded in clashes with Israeli security forces. On the Israeli side seven have been killed and dozens wounded in the attacks.

Hezbollah on alert in Lebanon
Now Lebanon/October 14/15
BEIRUT – Hezbollah has tightened security measures in Shiite-populated areas of Lebanon as the party ramps up its military presence in Syria while the Shiite holy day of Ashura nears, according to recent reports. The pro-Damascus daily As-Safir on Tuesday reported on Hezbollah’s heightened alert, saying it came amid growing fears of terrorist attacks in Lebanon following Russia’s military intervention in Syria backed by a coalition that includes the Lebanese Shiite party. “Hezbollah has tightened precautionary security procedures in certain Lebanese areas, the foremost of which is Dahiyeh,” the Lebanese daily said. It added that the new security measures had come at the same time as the party’s “widest ever participation in the Syrian war.”Pro-Hezbollah media outlets have all touted the party’s role in the “4+1 coalition” that also includes Russia, Iran, Syria and Iraq. Al-Akhbar reported that Hezbollah troops have been deploying to northwest Syria to take part in a major regime offensive, while a number of the party’s fighters, including two commanders, have been killed in recent days. On Wednesday, a Kuwaiti daily said that “Hezbollah is afraid of a terrorist reaction in the areas it controls in Lebanon after the Russian intervention that has imposed itself on the Syrian battlefield.” “The party has doubled the number of security personnel at checkpoints leading in to Beirut’s southern Dahiyeh area,” security sources told Al-Jarida. The source expressed concern over the possibility of “suicide attacks targeting the gatherings the party organizes to commemorate Ashura.” “Especially after the obscure incident that took place last week,” the source added, in reference to an October 5 roadside bomb attack in Lebanon’s eastern border against a minibus thought to be owned by Hezbollah. “A secret security meeting was held a few days ago between the party’s Liaison and Coordination Committee chief Wafiq Safa and [Lebanese] Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk to coordinate the implementation of the security plan which is supposed [to begin] in the days before [Ashura].” “Machnouk understands the concerns of the party’s security chief and has [appointed] [Internal Security Forces] Information Branch officers [to act] as… liaisons between the two bodies so that any information can be delivered in a professional and swift manner.” The Shiite holy day of Ashura—which commemorates the martyrdom of Imam Hussein in the Battle of Karbala in 680—has become a focal point for sectarian terror attacks in the past decade. Hezbollah has tightened its security measures in recent years during Ashura, while Lebanon’s security forces have foiled terror attacks aimed against the party on the occasion. Last week, Lebanese daily Al-Joumhouria reported that fears have mounted over the potential of a new terror campaign targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Lebanese daily Al-Joumhouria described the October 5 IED attack in the Bekaa border town of Chtoura as a “grave sign that indicates the return of bombings targeting Hezbollah convoys transferring fighters to Syria.”“Fears of a resumption of bombing operations have been renewed," a source told the daily. Meanwhile, Kuwaiti daily Al-Rai said that the Bekaa IED attack "may signal the possibility of a return to serial attacks targeting areas of high population and vehicle movement.”

Iran Broadcasts Footage of Underground Missile Base
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/Iranian state television broadcast unprecedented footage Wednesday of a deep underground tunnel packed with missiles and launcher units, which officials said could be used if "enemies make a mistake". The pictures were released just three days after Iran tested a new long-range missile that the United States said may have breached a U.N. Security Council resolution. The footage also came a day after Iran's parliament approved the country's July 14 nuclear deal with six world powers. Iranian officials have said the nuclear agreement will not affect its military forces, particularly its ballistic missile program. The missile launch and underground footage followed pressure from lawmakers to prove the military had not been weakened by the deal. The tunnel, hundreds of meters (yards) long and about 10 meters high, was filled with missiles and hardware. Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guards' aerospace division, said numerous such tunnels exist across the country at a depth of 500 meters. "The Islamic republic's long-range missile bases are stationed and ready under the high mountains in all the country’s provinces and cities," he said, according to the Guards' website. The commander said the missiles were ready to be launched from all over Iran, on the order of "the supreme commander-in-chief", Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. “This is a sample of our massive missile bases," he said, adding that "a new and advanced generation of long-range liquid and solid fuel missiles" would start to replace the current weapons next year. The commander seemed to suggest the show of strength was in response to Western powers, especially the U.S., which despite the nuclear deal, have said options against Iran, including the military one, remain on the table. "Those who pin hope on options on the table, should only have a look at the Islamic republic's army options under the table."Hajizadeh said Iran would not start any war but "if enemies make a mistake, missile bases will erupt like a volcano from the depth of earth."The U.S. on Tuesday said Tehran may have breached a Security Council resolution during Sunday's test of the new Imad missile. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said there were "strong indications" that Tehran "did violate U.N. Security Council resolutions that pertain to Iran's ballistic missile activities."Under a resolution passed days after the nuclear deal was reached, Iran was barred by the Security Council from developing missiles "designed to carry nuclear warheads."However the White House insisted the launch would have no impact on the nuclear agreement which is due to be formally implemented by the end of this year.

US: Iran likely violated international missile laws
J.Post/October 15/15/WASHINGTON – Iran has probably broken international laws against its experimentation with ballistic missile technology, the White House said. “We’ve got strong indications that those missile tests did violate a UN Security Council resolution that pertain to Iran’s ballistic missile activities.
Unfortunately, that’s not new,” White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters on Tuesday. “We have seen Iran almost serially violate the international community’s concerns about their ballistic missile program. And the UN Security Council resolution actually gives the international community some tools to interdict some equipment and material that could be used to advance their ballistic missile program.”Earnest was referring to a UN resolution prohibiting Iran from pursuing ballistic missiles that can deliver nuclear warheads. But Iran has called the resolution illegal, and has long vowed to ignore it.
Certain types of missiles, specifically intercontinental ballistic missiles, are designed for nuclear and not conventional military uses. They breach the atmosphere and speedily reenter over an intended target, are fashioned to carry the unique payload of a nuclear warhead and are not designed as precision weapons, given the nature of the intended strike. “This is altogether separate from the nuclear agreement that Iran reached with the rest of the world,” Earnest said. The Iran nuclear deal reached on July 14, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, lifts international restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program after eight years. At the State Department, a spokesman said the US would pursue punitive action against Iran within the parameters of the existing UN Security Council resolution, but not new sanctions.

Two Iranian Commanders Killed in Syria
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/Two senior Iranian commanders, one a general, have been killed fighting Islamic State jihadists in Syria alongside President Bashar Assad's forces, local media reported Wednesday. On Tuesday, an Iranian state television reporter working in Syria, in two posts on the Instagram photosharing service, named them as Brigadier General Farshad Hasounizadeh and Hamid Mukhtarband. The two belonged to Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards and were killed Monday, the reporter said. Mukhtarband, whose rank was not given, was formerly a brigade commander in the southern Iranian city of Ahvaz. There was no official confirmation in Tehran of the deaths. Iran's Fars and Tasnim news agencies and Tabnak, a news website, reported the state television reporter's account. Neither the reporter nor the agencies said where the deaths had occurred. If confirmed, they would come the same week the Guards announced their highest-profile casualty in the effort to shore up Assad. General Hossein Hamedani, who had undertaken 80 missions in Syria according to a eulogy at his funeral in Iran, was killed in the besieged Syrian city of Aleppo. Shiite-dominated Iran is Assad's strongest regional ally, sending military advisers from the Guards and other forces to help him against Sunni Muslim rebels seeking his overthrow. Lebanon's Tehran-allied Hizbullah has done much of the fighting to prop up the Syrian army. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards' foreign wing, Major General Qassem Soleimani, is said to be heavily involved in guiding military strategy.

Terror slowdown as Israelis absorb first shock and gear up for the next round
DEBKAfile Special Report October 14, 2015/Israelis have absorbed the first shock of the wave of Palestinian terror unleashed in the last two weeks. The Palestinians are likely absorbing the package of tough penalties for terror and deterrents the Netanyahu government began putting together Tuesday night. Wednesday, Oct. 14, saw relative calm after the deadly violence reached a new peak Tuesday with the first Palestinian shooting attack on a Jerusalem bus – this time by adults. The relative lull is expected to last only until the Palestinians and their Israeli Arab supporters take stock, before inevitably launching their next round of terror. Meanwhile, Jerusalem saw “only” two stabbing attacks. In the first, a terrorist wearing army fatigues tried to stab a Border Guardsman at Nablus Gate in Jerusalem, and was shot and killed by policemen and visitors. Two hours later, another terrorist attacked a woman bus passenger at the city’s central station. A police special ops officer ran after him up and shot him dead. One of the counter-terror measures that went into effect Wednesday morning was the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee’s approval of Emergency Order 8 authorizing the mobilization of an additional 600 Border Guards combatants from the reserves, over and above the 800 already called up. debkafile’s military experts note that the rapid processing of this new intake with equipment and operational orders will reduce the need to detach from their regular duties the 500 IDF soldiers allocated for manning the streets of Jerusalem. That is all to the good, because managing police officers and soldiers in harness is bound to be problematic. Israel is not the first country to inject military strength into its capital to fight terror. The British and French governments have been known to deploy paratroops and armed personnel carriers into the streets of London and Paris when they were beset by a rising level of terror. This deployment never lasted more than a few days - just enough to calm a terrified citizenry. But Jerusalem is different. The state of security is such that soldiers once in place may face a long-term stay in the capital to contend with a long-running security threat. Another difficulty is that the soldiers assigned to this mission have been pulled out of tank, artillery and engineering courses with no training for combating urban terror. Those who come from outside the city will furthermore need to familiarize themselves with a new environment and its rhythms. The Jerusalem Police are special. They must cope with complex, demanding and multi-tasking challenges to the town’s security. More than one terror attack may take place at different parts of the city. Unlike ordinary soldiers, they are trained and have the experience to quickly spot and take action against a terrorist in ordinary clothes who may pop up suddenly from among a large crowd to sow death. A seasoned police officer can judge when to cut the assailant down to save lives and when to arrest him. But the IDF servicemen to be recruited for anti-terror duties in support of security forces are much younger than the average policeman - on average around nineteen years old. Their firearms and kits are designed for conventional warfare on the Golan in the north or the Gaza Strip in the south – not for securing civilian buses or heavy vehicular and pedestrian traffic in a crowded city center. That Border Guards reservists were hastily mobilized at the same time as the military units indicates that someone had the sense to understand that the presence of IDF troops on the streets and buses was good psychological first aid for people jumping at shadows for fear of a lone terrorist, but hardly an effective operational arm for the war on terror.

Israel Sets up East Jerusalem Checkpoints after Violence Spikes
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/ Israel set up checkpoints in Palestinian neighborhoods of annexed east Jerusalem on Wednesday as it struggled to stop a wave of attacks that have raised fears of a full-scale uprising. With Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under immense pressure to halt the violence and frustrated Palestinian youths defying attempts to restore calm, police said 300 Israeli soldiers were joining their patrols. A wave of mainly stabbing attacks by Palestinians has spread fear in Israel, while a gun-and-knife attack on a Jerusalem bus on Tuesday killed two people and led to outrage among Israelis. A third Israeli was killed in Jerusalem on Tuesday when a Palestinian attacker rammed his car into pedestrians then exited with a knife, making it the city's bloodiest day in the current wave of unrest. All three attackers in the two incidents were from east Jerusalem, and two were shot dead. The move to install checkpoints followed a decision by Netanyahu's security cabinet overnight authorizing police to seal off or impose a curfew on parts of Jerusalem. Netanyahu has faced major criticism over attacks as well as violent Palestinian protests in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The upsurge in violence that began on October 1 has led some to warn of the risk of a third Palestinian intifada, or uprising. Seven Israelis have been killed and dozens wounded in the attacks. According to the Palestinian Center for Human Rights, 29 Palestinians have been killed, including alleged attackers, some of them teenagers. Hundreds of Palestinians have been wounded in clashes with Israeli security forces. While the stabbings and gun attack have led to anger and fear among Israelis, video footage shared online of security forces shooting dead alleged attackers has fed Palestinian anger, with protesters seeing some of the killings as unjustified. At the funeral on Wednesday for 28-year-old Moataz Zawahra, killed the previous day in clashes in the West Bank city of Bethlehem, youths with their faces covered in red keffiyeh head scarves carried his body and called him a "martyr." "He was on the front line close to the soldiers and he threw firebombs," his mother Diya said. "We are only at the beginning of the journey. As long as the occupation exists, there will be martyrs, prisoners and wounded."The number and extent of the checkpoints in east Jerusalem were not yet clear and appeared limited Wednesday. In the neighborhood of Jabel Mukaber, where three of Tuesday's attackers lived, an AFP journalist saw four armed police checking cars leaving the area. "This is normal for us," one Palestinian man in his mid-20s said with a wry smile after being stopped for about five minutes while officers searched his car and checked his ID. Four other checkpoints could be seen in other areas, but cars were mainly being waved through. Such checkpoints were used during past spikes in violence, much to the anger of Palestinian residents who consider it collective punishment. Meanwhile on the same bus route hit by Tuesday's attack, a Jewish man who looked to be in his 20s and who declined to give his name displayed a container of pepper spray in his pocket. "I'm very worried," he said as he traveled near the scene of Tuesday's attack, adding that he had to take the bus to work. The rising tide of violence, which has seen more than 20 stabbing attacks in addition to protests, has raised fears of a full-scale third Palestinian intifada, or uprising. In the intifadas of 1987-1993 and 2000-2005, hundreds of people were killed in near daily Israel-Palestinian violence. The unrest has led to international calls for calm, and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday condemned the "terrorist attacks" in Jerusalem."Naturally, we mourn the loss of any life, no matter who it is, but this violence and any incitement to violence has got to stop," he said. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged Israel to carry out a review of whether its security forces are resorting to excessive force in clashes with Palestinians. The violence began on October 1, when a suspected Hamas cell shot dead a Jewish settler couple in the West Bank in front of their children. Those killings followed repeated clashes at Jerusalem's flashpoint Al-Aqsa mosque compound in September between Israeli forces and Palestinian youths.

Three Top Ankara Police Officials Sacked after Bombings
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/The Turkish interior ministry on Wednesday fired Ankara's top police chief and two other officials as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan admitted security shortcomings may have led to a double suicide bombing in the capital that killed 97 people. There has been growing anger against Erdogan and the government for alleged security lapses over the worst attack in modern Turkey's history in which two suicide bombers blew themselves up in a crowd of peace activists on Saturday. Announcing the first dismissals in the wake of the disaster, the interior ministry said Ankara police chief Kadri Kartal as well the head of the city's police intelligence and security departments had been sacked. It said they had been removed on the suggestion of investigators "to allow for a healthy investigation" into the atrocity. In his first public remarks over the bombings, Erdogan admitted there were security shortcomings but said their magnitude would be made clear only later. "There must undoubtedly be a mistake, a shortcoming in some place. Of what dimension? This will emerge after examinations," he told reporters late Tuesday. He said he ordered the State Supervisory Council (DDK), an inspection body attached to the presidency, to undertake a special investigation "to handle (the attack) from a different perspective."Erdogan on Wednesday made his first visit to the site of the bombings outside Ankara's main railway station, laying flowers for the victims alongside visiting Finnish President Sauli Niinisto.
'Bombers identified'
The attack has raised political tensions to new highs as Turkey prepares for a snap election on November 1, with polarization within the country now greater than ever. The bombing targeted thousands of people gathering for a peace rally of union, leftist and Kurdish activists criticizing the government's current offensive against Kurdish militants. The pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), which lost several members in the blasts, has accused the authorities of, at the very least, severe negligence over the bombings. In protests after the blasts, demonstrators have held up banners such as "killer Erdogan" and "we know the killer!". The authorities have angrily ridiculed claims of state complicity. The government has said the Islamic State group is the prime suspect behind the bombings, which also injured more than 500 people. Erdogan has said the attack had its roots in Syria, where IS militants have captured swathes of territory up to the Turkish border. There have been growing indications that the authorities are focusing on possible parallels or even links to a July 20 suicide bombing at a peace rally in Suruc on the Syrian border that killed 34 people. The government blamed the IS group for that attack, which also targeted a gathering of pro-Kurdish and leftist activists. The Hurriyet daily reported that the authorities now believe one of the Ankara suicide bombers was Yunus Emre Alagoz, the brother of the Suruc bomber Abdurrahman Alagoz. The other is believed to be Omer Deniz Dundar who had twice been to Syria from 2013, it said, adding that both had arrived in Ankara in two separate cars from the southeastern city of Gaziantep close to the Syrian border. Over the weekend and on Monday, police arrested dozens of people with suspected links to the IS group in cities stretching from the Mediterranean resort of Antalya to the southern city of Adana. Turkey's NATO allies have long pointed the finger at Ankara for not taking a tougher line as IS militants seized swathes of northern Iraq and Syria. But following months of Western pressure, Turkey is now a full member of the U.S.-led coalition against IS and allowing American jets to use its Incirlik air base for raids, potentially making it a more likely target for IS attacks.
Arrests over tweet
But Turkish officials said two people with alleged links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) had been detained on suspicion of having prior knowledge of the attack and sharing the information nine hours beforehand on Twitter. "This is an interesting turn of events," an official told AFP. "We are questioning how they can have had advanced knowledge." Turkey has for almost three months waged an offensive against PKK militants who have responded with attacks of their own, killing over 140 members of the security forces. The foreign ministry said Wednesday it had summoned the ambassadors of Russia and United States to warn against support of Kurdish armed groups in Syria, including the main Democratic Unity Party (PYD).

Turkey Summons U.S., Russia Envoys over Support for Syrian Kurds
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Wednesday warned the United States and Russia against "unacceptable" military and political support for Syrian Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria. Turkey earlier summoned U.S. and Russian envoys to warn against supplying arms and support for Syrian Kurdish forces fighting the Islamic State (IS) group in Syria. "We have a clear position. That position has been conveyed to the United States and the Russian Federation," Davutoglu said in televised comments. "Turkey cannot accept any cooperation with terrorist organizations which have waged war against it." A Turkish foreign ministry official told AFP that the U.S. and Russian ambassadors were called to the ministry Tuesday "to convey Turkey's views" about Democratic Unity Party (PYD), the main Kurdish group in Syria. "Necessary warnings were issued," the official added. Turkey labels the PYD as the Syrian offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which has waged a bloody insurgency since 1984. U.S.-led coalition forces have parachuted in ammunition to anti-IS rebels in northern Syria, stepping their backing for groups battling jihadists. The move follows the Pentagon's announcement last week that it would halt its much-criticized program to train moderate rebels, and instead focus efforts on equipping pre-screened rebel leaders from groups actively fighting IS. Russia is intervening in Syria with bombing raids in support of the regime of President Bashar Assad. A top Russian official last week held talks with PYD leader Salih Muslim to discuss the fight against IS. The PYD's Kurdish fighters control large parts of northern Syria on the Turkish border, where they have for months engaged in bitter fighting with IS jihadists. Turkey is currently waging a two-pronged "war on terror" against both IS and the PKK, although so far air strikes have overwhelmingly focused on bases of the Kurdish militants in northern Iraq. Davutoglu said Wednesday that there was an "organic bond" between the PKK and the PYD. "We know that some of those who fled from (Turkish) operations against the PKK in northern Iraq joined the ranks of the PYD in Syria," he said. "We have a clear stance against terrorist organizations which waged a war against Turkey. We have the same attitude against their affiliates ," Davutoglu said. He warned the United States and other allies against any cooperation with the PYD. "Just as the United States and other friendly allies fight against Al-Qaida linked groups, Turkey is determined to fight against the PKK and its affiliates," he said. "Just as the United States and allies cannot tolerate arms support for Al-Qaida and its affiliates, Turkey cannot tolerate arms support for the PKK and its affiliates." He said that nobody could guarantee the ammunitions provided for Syrian Kurdish groups would not end up in Turkey. "We will never allow a weapons stockpile in Syria to be inserted into Turkey," he said.

Syrian Air Raids Pound Rebel Neighborhoods around Damascus
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/Syrian regime bombing raids struck rebel positions around Damascus on Wednesday in a bid to dislodge insurgents entrenched on the outskirts of the capital, a military source told AFP. "The army began a military operation this morning with the aim of expanding a security zone around areas controlled" by the government, the source said. "It began in Jobar with limited, precise and effective operations against lines of defense used by armed groups to observe the rest of the capital," the source said, adding that "Syrian aircraft are in action but not Russian ones". Russia has since last month conducted bombing raids in Syria.Jobar neighborhood, in eastern Damascus, has been a battleground for more than two years. Nearly all of its pre-war population has fled, and fighting between the Syrian army and rebel groups has devastated the suburb. The area is highly strategic as it sits near the Abbasid Square roundabout that leads directly to the heart of Damascus and also provides access to Eastern Ghouta, a region east of the capital also in rebel hands. The Syrian army has attempted on several occasions to retake Jobar. "Artillery fire, rockets and other projectiles started at around 6 am (0300 GMT) and lasted for three hours. It was very heavy," said an eyewitness who gave his name as Yussef. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said war planes conducted at least eight raids on Jobar on Wednesday. The Britain-based monitor said pro-regime forces including troops from Lebanon's Hizbullah were battling Syria's Al-Qaida affiliate Al-Nusra Front in the area. Air raids on Douma, a rebel-controlled suburb of Damascus, also killed two children, according to the Observatory.

Iraqi Forces Say Ramadi Offensive Near
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/Iraqi forces have made significant advances around Ramadi and an operation to retake the city captured by the Islamic State group in May is near, officers said Wednesday. "Great people, the hour of victory against the Daesh criminal gangs (IS) has come," said a statement from the Joint Operations Command for Anbar province, of which Ramadi is the capital. "Your heroic forces are advancing steadily from the northern side... they managed to reach Albu Farraj area," on the northern edge of the city center, it said. The head of the Anbar command, Major General Ismail Mahalawi, told AFP that "Iraqi forces have raised the Iraqi flag on Albu Farraj bridge," over the Euphrates. Since the start of October, Iraqi forces have been closing in on Ramadi, gaining ground west and north of the city in particular. IS fighters took Ramadi, about 100 kilometers (60 miles) west of Baghdad, in mid-May after a three-day blitz of massive suicide car and truck bomb attacks that forced a disorderly retreat by pro-government troops. After the most stinging setback suffered by Iraqi forces since they started a counter-offensive to regain the territory lost in mid-2014, officials vowed to swiftly retake Ramadi. Progress has been sluggish however, with Iraqi forces and the U.S.-led coalition supporting them in Anbar blaming a number of factors, including searing summer temperatures. The U.S.-led coalition's spokesman in Baghdad, Colonel Steve Warren, conceded two weeks ago there had been an "operational pause" in efforts to retake Ramadi. But on Tuesday he said Iraqi forces were now ready to launch an operation inside the city. "We now believe that battlefield conditions are set for the ISF (Iraqi security forces) to push into the city," he said, estimating between 600 and 1,000 the number of IS fighters remaining in Ramadi.

U.S., Russia to Hold Talks on Crowded Syria Skies
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/The United States and Russia were to hold new talks Wednesday on avoiding incidents in the skies of Syria, as regime forces launched heavy attacks against rebels near Damascus. Fighting was also reported in the northern city of Aleppo, where jihadists from the Islamic State group were making advances against other rebel fighters. The U.S.-Russia talks come after the Pentagon said American and Russian planes had come within kilometers (miles) of each other on Saturday, making visual contact as the countries wage separate air wars over Syria. Russia's air campaign, launched September 30, has raised fears of a military incident with the U.S.-led coalition that has been bombing IS in Syria and Iraq for more than a year. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the talks between the U.S. and Russian militaries would aim to ensure Moscow follows "basic safety procedures" over Syria. "Even as we continue to disagree on Syria policy, we should be able to at least agree on making sure our airmen are as safe as possible," Carter said. Colonel Steve Warren, the Baghdad-based spokesman for the coalition, told reporters that Saturday's incident saw coalition and Russian planes just "miles apart" over Syria. "Visual identification took place. All pilots conducted themselves appropriately and everyone went about their business," he said. "But this is dangerous right?... There's always going to be some risk if there are uncoordinated actors in the battle space."Despite the planned talks, Moscow said Wednesday that Washington had declined to host a high-ranking Russian delegation or to send a team to hold separate broader discussions on Syria."We have been told that they can't send a delegation to Moscow and they can't host a delegation in Washington either," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told parliament.
Offensive near Damascus
Russia's intervention has raised the stakes in the Syrian conflict, which has left more than 245,000 dead and forced millions from their homes since it erupted in March 2011. Moscow insists it is targeting IS, which has emerged as the preeminent jihadist group during the conflict and seized swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq. It said Wednesday that Russian jets had hit 40 IS targets in five Syrian provinces in the past 24 hours. But Washington and its allies accuse Moscow of targeting moderate Western-backed rebels and seeking to prop up President Bashar Assad, a longtime Russian ally. The regime began an operation Wednesday to dislodge insurgents entrenched on the outskirts of the capital, a military source told AFP. "It began in Jobar with limited, precise and effective operations against lines of defense used by armed groups to observe the rest of the capital," the source said. In Damascus on Tuesday, Russia's embassy was struck by two rockets reportedly fired from rebel-held territory on the eastern edges of the capital. There were no reports of dead or wounded. Jobar neighborhood, in eastern Damascus, has been a battleground for more than two years. Nearly all of its pre-war population has fled, and fighting between the Syrian army and rebel groups has devastated the suburb.The Syrian army has attempted to retake it several times.Residents of the area described heavy shelling and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group, said warplanes had conducted at least eight raids on the area. In Aleppo, the Observatory said IS had seized new territory from other rebels, blocking a key route between Aleppo and the Turkish border. It said the fighting had killed 13 IS fighters and seven rebels. "The rebels have suffered several reversals to IS in northern Aleppo and are caught between IS and the forces of the regime," said Maamun al-Khatib, editor of the rebel Shabha news agency in Aleppo.
Turkey warns on Kurds
Syrian regime forces have made key advances with the support of Russian air strikes. Much of the latest fighting has focused on the strategic Sahl al-Ghab plain, a gateway to Assad's coastal heartland of Latakia. Assad's forces are battling a wide range of opponents, including the jihadists of IS and Nusra, Western-backed rebel groups and Kurdish militia. Washington has been increasing support for rebel groups it backs in Syria, but backing for Kurdish forces has rankled Turkey. On Wednesday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu warned the United States and Russia against "unacceptable" military and political support for Syrian Kurdish forces fighting IS. "We have a clear position. That position has been conveyed to the United States and the Russian Federation," Davutoglu said in televised comments. "Turkey cannot accept any cooperation with terrorist organizations which have waged war against it."Turkey considers the Democratic Unity Party (PYD), the main Kurdish group in Syria, an offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) which has waged a bloody insurgency against Ankara since 1984.

Kerry, Fabius to Discuss Israeli-Palestinian Violence
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 14/15/French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius will discuss the recent wave of clashes in Israel and the Palestinian Territories with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry on Wednesday, France's government spokesman said. "There is an escalation that France wants to combat," said spokesman Stephane Le Foll, adding that Kerry and Fabius would discuss the situation in Jerusalem later in the day. "The situation has strongly deteriorated and France will do all it can avoid an escalation," he added. Jerusalem has seen a series of stabbing attacks and protests by Palestinians. Three Israelis were killed on Tuesday when attackers shot at a bus and another rammed a car into pedestrians. France, home to the largest Jewish community outside of Israel and the U.S., has condemned the violence as "extremely worrying and dangerous." Israel set up checkpoints in Palestinian neighborhoods of annexed east Jerusalem on Wednesday as it struggled to stop the attacks that have raised fears of a full-scale uprising.

Saudi king and French PM seek to enhance ties
By Staff writer | Al Arabiya News/Wednesday, 14 October 2015/Saudi Arabia’s King Salman held talks with French Prime Minister Manuel Valls in Riyadh on Tuesday. The two leaders reviewed bilateral relations and ways of enhancing them in various fields as well as the latest developments in the region. Valls, who wrapped up a two-day visit to Saudi Arabia, was leading a large delegation to the Second Saudi-French Business Opportunities Forum which concluded on Tuesday. Earlier on Tuesday, France announced a series of deals worth 10 billion euros ($11.4 billion) with Saudi Arabia. (SPA) The talks were attended, among others, by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Naif, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Riyadh Governor Prince Faisal bin Bandar, National Guard Minister Prince Miteb bin Abdullah and Minister of State Musaed bin Mohammed Al-Aiban. On the French side, it was attended by Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and a number of ministers and officials. Earlier on Tuesday, France announced a series of deals worth 10 billion euros ($11.4 billion) with Saudi Arabia. “France-Saudi Arabia: 10 billion euros in contracts,” Valls wrote in a tweet. The deals include contracts and letters of intent between the two countries whose economic and political bonds have been strengthening. The deals also cover energy, health, food, satellites and infrastructure, according to the prime minister’s office. The announcement came during the third high-level visit by French officials to the world’s biggest oil exporter this year. (With AFP)

U.N. urges Iraq’s feuding Kurds to respect democracy
By AFP | Baghdad/Thursday, 15 October 2015/Political parties in Iraq’s Kurdish region, whose president’s mandate expired in August, should respect democratic principles, the top U.N. envoy said Wednesday. Jan Kubis’ warning came after a week that saw protests against regional president Massud Barzani turn violent and the leading opposition party kicked out of government. What started as demonstrations over unpaid salaries in regions dominated by the opposition to Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party escalated into protests demanding he step down. At least four people were killed, dozens wounded and local offices of the KDP in several southern towns were burnt down. “Perpetrators of these acts of violence should be quickly brought to justice, following due judicial process,” Kubis, U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon’s representative in Iraq, said in a statement. But he also stressed that all parties in the northern autonomous region, a key partner in the global fight against the Islamic State group, should respect democracy. Kubis urged “the authorities and political forces of the region to ensure the proper functioning of the political system and its institutions, political parties and their offices, in full conformity with democratic principles and methods.”Barzani’s mandate expired in August but the 69-year-old, at the helm of Iraqi Kurdistan since 2005, wants to stay in power, arguing that his leadership is needed to fight terrorism. Negotiations between the parties sharing power have failed. Barzani’s camp accused Gorran, the second-largest party in Kurdistan, of instigating the protest violence. The KDP subsequently blocked Gorran’s leaders, including the parliament speaker, from reaching their workplace in the regional capital Arbil and declared the party to be out of government. The resurfacing of geographical and linguistic divisions has raised the spectre of the civil war of the mid-nineties that split the region into two entities administered separately for years.

Iranian MPs arrive in Damascus before joint offensive
By Reuters | Dubai/Wednesday, 14 October 2015/A delegation of Iranian lawmakers arrived in Damascus on Wednesday in the build-up to a joint operation against insurgents in northwest Syria, and said U.S.-led efforts to fight rebels had failed. The visit, led by the chairman of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, Alaeddin Boroujerdi, came as Iranian troops prepared to bolster a Syrian army offensive that two senior officials told Reuters would target rebels in Aleppo. The attack, which the officials said would be backed by Russian air strikes, underlined the growing involvement in the civil war of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s two main allies, which has alarmed a U.S.-led coalition opposed to the president that is bombing Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants. “The international coalition led by America has failed in the fight against terrorism. The cooperation between Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia has been positive and successful,” Boroujerdi was quoted as saying by Iran’s state broadcaster IRIB as he arrived at Damascus airport. The delegation was due to meet Assad, said officials. Iran has sent thousands of troops into Syria in recent days to bolster the planned ground offensive in Aleppo, the two officials told Reuters. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported two senior officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards - Major General Farshad Hasounizadeh and Brigadier Hamid Mokhtarband - were killed fighting ISIS militants in Syria on Monday, though it did not say where. Another senior Revolutionary Guards commander, Hossein Hamedani, was killed last week while advising the Syrian army near Aleppo. Assad’s government has been strengthened by two weeks of Russian air strikes that the Kremlin says are targeting ISIS. The United States says they have also targeted other rebel groups. With military support from Russian and Iran, the Syrian army is trying to drive insurgents from western areas crucial to Assad’s survival. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian said on Tuesday that Tehran was working with Russia on drafting a peace plan for Syria. But Western powers, and many countries in the Middle East, say Assad must go as a precondition for peace. Abdollahian said Syria’s deputy foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, would visit Tehran next week to discuss the peace plan.

Two Iranian Revolutionary Guards officers reportedly killed in Syria
By Reuters | Dubai/Wednesday, 14 October 2015/Two senior officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards were reportedly killed fighting ISIS militants in Syria, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported, ahead of a planned offensive by Syria’s army backed by Tehran. Major General Farshad Hasounizadeh and Brigadier Hamid Mokhtarband, commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), died in action on Monday, Tasnim said late on Tuesday. It did not say where they were fighting. Iran has sent thousands of troops into Syria in recent days to bolster a planned ground offensive against insurgents in Aleppo by the Syrian army, which will also be supported by Russian air strikes, two senior regional officials told Reuters. The government of President Bashar al-Assad has been strengthened by two weeks of Russian air strikes that the Kremlin says are targeting ISIS. The United States says they have also targeted other rebel groups. Another senior Revolutionary Guards commander, Hossein Hamedani, was killed last week while advising the Syrian army near Aleppo. Tehran is Assad’s main regional ally and has provided him with military and economic support during Syria’s civil war, now in its fifth year.

Why is Turkey's government choosing to protect itself instead of its citizens?
Metin GurcanAl-Monitor/October 14/15
Oct. 10 started out as a normal day. People of all kinds, mostly young, assembled slowly in front of the train station in Ankara to participate in the "Labor, Peace and Democracy" rally organized by the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). Also attending were members of the Confederation of Revolutionary Labor Unions, other leftist labor unions and professional nongovernmental organizations. At 10:04 a.m., two suicide bombers, separated by about 50 yards and three seconds, detonated their explosive-packed vests that were equipped with roughly 20-30 pounds of explosives, reinforced with RDX and steel balls to increase fragmentation. The human toll was high: According to the latest official data from the government, at least 97 were killed and 160 sent to hospitals, with 65 in serious condition. Security officials are certain the attack was carried out by live bombers because there were no craters where the blasts took place, as there would be if a car or parcel bomb had been used. Also, the fragments were particularly deadly. Investigators are focusing on identifying the attackers using evidence from the scene, coroner’s reports, closed-circuit TV recordings and cellular telephone records. But already the media is carrying reports, attributed to police, that one of the bombers allegedly was Yunus Emre Alagoz.
Who is Yunus Emre Alagoz? He was a good friend of Orhan Gonder, who on June 5 allegedly set off a bomb at HDP’s electoral rally at Diyarbakir, causing casualties. More importantly, he is the older brother of Seyh Abdurrahman Alagoz, who in July allegedly detonated a bomb in Suruc that killed 23 people.
According to an article by Ezgi Basaran of Radikal, police in Adiyaman — which gained notoriety as the city sending the most volunteers to the Islamic State (IS) — have a list of 15 youngsters who had gone to Syria. That list, which included Yunus Emre Alagoz, was sent to the entire police force with a request that the youngsters be arrested.
The fact that these 15 youngsters have evaded capture despite the high-profile Diyarbakir and Suruc attacks naturally raises the question of whether there is a prevailing security and intelligence weakness. Basaran ends her article with a basic question: “If journalists can track them down, how come the intelligence services of the state can’t?” Although all arrows point to IS as the perpetrator of the attacks, confusion reigns over who might have helped. So many people are looking for the answer in the country's political polarization as the Nov. 1 general elections approach. The HDP points to the state as the abettor and criticizes Justice and Development Party (AKP) elites and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. HDP Co-chairman Selahattin Demirtas, in his first reaction to the Ankara attack, blamed the state, saying it has become a "mafiosi" operating "as a serial killer.” On the AKP front, the favorite abettors are the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) or Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. To the latter two, IS "is but a subcontractor." The AKP also alleges possible links to the United States and Iran.
The current minister of EU affairs and also a professor of international politics, Beril Dedeoglu, points to IS as the abettor, but she is not certain that the true instigator is IS. Dedeoglu said, "When I looked at the location of the attack and people targeted, I noticed that the attack may not be confined to the region. It could be [IS]-PKK, or militants who united, but my feeling is that the decision was taken with the provocation of some other countries.”In short, the uncertainty surrounding the identity of the abettors has allowed both the HDP and the AKP to promote their own narratives and obtain the full support of their constituencies. The abettor debate will be one of the key dynamics of the approaching elections. Problems and uncertainties characterize investigations of cases involving IS perpetrators, such as the Nigde clash between IS militants and Turkish security personnel; the Diyarbakir bombing in June; and the Suruc bomb attack in July. All these cases illustrate the difficulties of achieving a correct, swift and impartial judicial process when IS is implicated. Although it is too early to know for sure, the judicial process of the Ankara attack appears to be infused with the same uncertainty. The public prosecutor asked for and received Oct. 12 a ruling that clamped down on judicial process secrecy.
The Turkish Penal Code in cases where the investigation may be jeopardized allows prosecutors, subject to decision of the judge, to restrict the access of lawyers to study files or copy documents. This certainly obstructs the accused's lawyers from obtaining data and documents. Several lawyers Al-Monitor reached by phone have vehemently emphasized the immediate need to cancel this ban, to ensure the legal process is free from political manipulation and open to public scrutiny. Meanwhile, it does not escape notice that IS is under heavy pressure from growing military cooperation between the United States and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party in northern Syria and by the Syrian army's move to expand eastward with air and ground support from Russia. IS seeks to ease the pressure by trying to expand its front lines toward Turkey. For Turkey, that reality — along with the efforts of IS militants and other opposition groups that want to flee Syria to Turkey — is a long, dark tunnel with no exit in sight. How, then, can Ankara overcome the shock waves of the bombing that have shattered state-society and state-individual relations?
It is important to learn the identity of the abettors in the bombing. It is also certainly the right time to seriously ask how Turkey could be so splintered. Many foreign ambassadors based in Ankara have visited the scene of the attack to express their condolences. No AKP, Nationalist Action Party deputies or political dignitaries have done so. Another reality that has emerged is the need to restructure Turkey's traditional security approach and replace it with a new security concept based on human elements. The Ankara attack has proved that when the state is excessively concerned with protecting itself, it may overlook the security of its citizens. The question Ankara has to deal with now is how to simultaneously deal with the PKK, which is challenging the state's legitimacy, and IS, which is manipulating the sectarian and ethnic fault lines of the country.

Islamic Jihad committed to truce...as long as Israel is
Mohammed Othman/Al-Monitor/October 14/15
RAFAH, Gaza Strip — The Islamic Jihad played a key role and was an essential partner for Hamas in the Israeli war on Gaza in summer 2014. It also took part in the indirect Israeli-Palestinian talks in Cairo that resulted in a truce agreement Aug. 26. It now seems, however, that in regard to negotiations with Israel, the group's partnership with Hamas has ended. On Oct. 4, Al-Monitor met with Nafez Azzam, a member of the Islamic Jihad’s political bureau, who spoke about the movement’s position on negotiations, intermittent military escalations between Gaza and Israel and his group's relations with Arab and regional parties.
The text of the interview follows:
Al-Monitor: The war between you and Israel ended over a year ago, after the signing of an open truce agreement, but we witness some escalation at times. What is on the horizon now? Will the truce continue or will it end soon? Azzam: We had approved an agreement at the end of the war over a year ago, and it still stands. We will keep abiding by it as long as Israel does the same. In this critical stage, we do not believe war would be in our interest for several reasons, first of which is that the devastating repercussions of the previous war have not been rectified or recovered from yet. In addition, the regional and international situation does not serve us. Al-Monitor: As a resistance movement, are there direct or indirect negotiations between you and Israel? Azzam: The negotiations took place during the war under Egyptian sponsorship. We only met with Egyptians, who would then meet with the Israelis. For the Islamic Jihad movement, there are no current direct or indirect negotiations between us and Israel.
Al-Monitor: Is there no plan to resume the negotiations from the 2014 war that were scheduled after the signing of the truce? Azzam: [Negotiations] were supposed to take place, but the Egyptians put forward points of view and justifications to stop the talks related to the current conditions in Egypt, which we understood. However, we wish they would communicate with Israel again and pressure it to stop the various forms of aggression it is practicing, specifically in the West Bank and Jerusalem. Al-Monitor: Is there any international action regarding the Israeli soldiers captured by the Palestinian factions or any files related to the truce or escalation? Is the Islamic Jihad being informed of the results of any actions? Azzam: The truth is, we do not have new information, and we are not part of these meetings. Sometimes, when we meet with Hamas, it talks about such matters, but only in general. Other than that, we do not have any knowledge or details regarding those negotiations. There is no doubt, however, that we should be included and involved in discussions about any step related to the future of the Palestinian cause and the living conditions of the Palestinian people. But we are not part of the ongoing negotiations between Hamas, the European Union and the representatives of the Quartet or other parties.
Al-Monitor: Since you were part of the decision on war and peace, are you Hamas’ partner in any decision related to the continuation of the truce or anything else?
Azzam: We are certainly a key party in the entire political process and in everything that happens, both in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in the sense that there is communication between us and the Palestinian Authority as well as between us and Hamas and other factions. This is why I do not think that any one [person or group] can exclusively make a decision regarding the future of the Palestinian cause or the interests of the Palestinian people. We do not know who is currently firing the rockets, and we do not think that these rockets serve the Palestinian cause and the people. We know that as long as there is a truce agreement, everyone should abide by it. Those launching rockets are unknown, and we do not believe this comes in the context of a vision or a strategy that serves the Palestinian cause.
Al-Monitor: What are your demands regarding lifting the Israeli siege on Gaza?
Azzam: The siege does not concern a specific Palestinian faction, as all Palestinians suffer from it. The people have made a lot of sacrifices, and they should not continue to suffer the way they are now. It is necessary to lift the blockade in all its forms; there must be freedom of travel, economy, trade, health care. Thus, lifting the siege cannot be used as a condition for concessions offered by the Palestinians. The siege must be lifted without restrictions or conditions, as it is illogical, illegal and inhumane. Al-Monitor: How is your relationship with Iran today? Is it still providing financial support to the Islamic Jihad?
Azzam: We prefer not to talk about such topics or about our relations with our friends and allies or with any parties related to the Palestinian issue. Al-Monitor: It is known that the Egyptian regime's relationship with Hamas, which is part of the [Palestinian] resistance, is bad. What about your relations with the Egyptian regime?
Azzam: We have a relationship with the Egyptian regime, and we are keen on preserving it. Egypt has done a lot for the Palestinian cause, regardless of who the Egyptian president is or the situation in the Egyptian arena. We distance ourselves from what is happening in the Arab countries, and this is better for us, for the Palestinian cause and for the people. Thus, we are keen on maintaining the relationship and communication, which never stopped, with the Egyptians. Al-Monitor: The border with Egypt [the Rafah crossing] is partially closed, and the Israeli siege is tight. How do you see the situation in Gaza in particular and in Palestine in general? Azzam: The situation is obviously disastrous. There is great suffering as a result of the occupation and its policies. Citizens are also suffering because of the internal conflict and bickering, which increases the burden imposed on the Palestinians in general and the people of Gaza in particular. We, along with the Egyptians and other parties, are seeking to ameliorate this atmosphere and alleviate the people’s suffering, and all Arab and Islamic parties should do the same. In addition, both parties of the internal division [Fatah and Hamas] are supposed to be taking steps to spare our people more suffering and pain. The crisis living situation in Gaza is never-ending, and our people in the West Bank are also suffering. The main reason for all this is the Israeli occupation, but there are other reasons related to our internal differences, and this is in our hands. We must put an end to it by fixing our internal issues to spare the people more suffering.
**Mohammed Othman is a journalist from the Gaza Strip. He graduated from the Faculty of Media in the Department of Radio and Television at Al-Aqsa University in Gaza in 2009. He has received a number of Palestinian and Arab awards, including first place at the Arab Press Awards in Dubai in the category of Youth Press during its tenth session in 2011 and the Press Freedom Award from the Palestinian Government Media Center during its first session in 2011. He also received the third place award for investigative reporting of corruption cases, organized by the Media Development Center at Birzeit University and the Anti-Corruption Commission in 2013.

Gaza tunnels, how did it all start?
Fadi Shafei/ Al-Monitor/October 14/15
RAFAH, Gaza Strip — Egypt's latest campaign to destroy the smuggling tunnels connecting to Palestine has significantly limited smugglers' efforts, which could change the types of goods being secreted across the border and the methods used to do so. Tunnels between the Palestinian and Egyptian sides of Rafah date back to the pre-blockade era in Gaza. Smuggling operations through primitive tunnels developed according to the political and economic status of the Gaza Strip, as well as varying Egyptian policies toward the Strip. Historically, the Egyptian and Palestinian sides of Rafah were one city until Egypt agreed to a peace deal with Israel in 1979. In 1982, Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula, and consequently, the Egyptian Rafah became politically and geographically separated from the Palestinian Rafah. Barbed-wire barriers were erected, and the Rafah land port was created to regulate movement between the two sides. Thus, Rafah turned into two cities linked by social relations of familial and tribal nature. These relations led to the smuggling activity between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. The underground tunnels became the most obvious means of this activity.
Abu Marwan, who refused to reveal his full name, is one of the first smugglers and has been working since 1997. He told Al-Monitor, “Smuggling started near the historic al-Zaarab hill on the Egyptian-Palestinian border, where the barbed wire [placed] in 1982 separated lands owned by one family. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Palestinian farmers were using asbestos and clay pipes to irrigate their crops on the Egyptian side, and the majority of agricultural irrigation wells were located on the Palestinian side of Rafah. As farmers lost hope to remove the new borders to oversee their farms, water fountains dried up after being abandoned by their owners. A few years later, these pipes were used as a primitive means to smuggle lightweight and expensive goods such as gold, drugs and light weapons spare parts.” He continued, “In the late 1990s, the smuggling activity [increased], and for the first time, small tunnels of a diameter not exceeding [20 inches] each were dug as an imitation of old agricultural irrigation pipes.”A worker who digs and restores tunnels told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Following Hamas’ takeover of the Gaza Strip in 2007 and the tightened siege on Gaza, the movement encouraged tunneling activity and opened smuggling operations with no restrictions. Tunnels were considered a means of resistance” and became more sophisticated and large enough to accommodate bigger items. Tunnel lengths ranged from 300 yards to more than 1 mile. Their circumference could reach more than 6.5 feet at a depth of 65-100 feet underground, the worker said. The outbreak in 2011 of the Egyptian January 25 Revolution and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi to power positively affected the relations between Egypt and Hamas, as Hamas believes itself to be a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine. Under Morsi’s era, Egyptian authorities turned a blind eye to the tunnel smuggling, allowing the quantities and types of goods smuggled into Gaza to increase in an unprecedented manner. The Hamas-led government in the Gaza Strip began imposing taxes in 2009 on goods received through the tunnels. The taxes became one of the group's important sources of funding. After the June 30, 2013, revolution that ousted Morsi and led to the ascent of former Egyptian Defense Minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the presidency, the feud between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Egyptian army intensified, affecting Egypt's policies toward Gaza. The relationship between Hamas and the Egyptian authorities deteriorated, and the Egyptian army tightened its grip on the border with the Gaza Strip to prevent smuggling, following Egyptian accusations of direct and indirect ties between Hamas and extremist groups active in the Sinai Peninsula that the Egyptian army was fighting, such as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis and Wilayat Sinai. Egyptian authorities fully closed down the Rafah land port, which since the beginning of 2015 has been open only 17 days, intermittently. Following the 2014 Israeli war on Gaza, the Egyptian army launched a military campaign to destroy the tunnels. In the first phase of this campaign, the army established a buffer zone with the Gaza Strip more than 8.5 miles long and stretching more than 500 yards inside Egypt along the borders with Gaza. In the second phase, Egyptian army vehicles laid down giant water pipes along the border with the Gaza Strip as a prelude to flooding the tunnels with seawater. Rafah resident Bisan Yahya told Al-Monitor, “The Egyptian side already started pumping large amounts of seawater through huge pipes that it had laid down in the past few weeks along the border.” Bisan’s house directly overlooks the Egyptian-Palestinian border.
It seems that Rafah smugglers are repeating the first underground smuggling experiment and are extending concrete and metal pipes inside the tunnels. Al-Monitor visited the Egyptian-Palestinian borders and met with a tunnel restoration worker, who stated on condition of anonymity, “We [initially] padded the tunnels with wood panels to prevent the collapse of the soil. After the Egyptian army pumped seawater, we started reinforcing the tunnels with metal and concrete pipes of a [1.5-foot] diameter … to prevent water from reaching the inside of the tunnel, which [would] lead to its collapse. Padding the tunnels with wood panels is no longer efficient.” He continued, “It is difficult to test the long-term efficiency of these metal and concrete pipes laid by smugglers. The Egyptian army operations significantly affected the smuggling of goods into the Gaza Strip, and the majority of Egyptian goods were depleted from Gaza’s markets. Smuggling is now limited to some lightweight and expensive goods such as cigarettes and shisha tobacco.”
**Fadi N. Shafei is a Palestinian writer and reporter, residing in the Gazan city of Rafah. He majored in history and political science and is interested in cultural, social, political and media issues. He writes for several Arab and international newspapers and news websites.

Iranian stocks continue two-year slump
Morteza Ramezanpour/October 14/15
TEHRAN, Iran — Lingering ambiguities, cuts in company earnings, high interest rates, stubborn inflation and Western sanctions have combined to send the Tehran Stock Exchange’s TEDPIX to its lowest point in over two years. According to Tehran Stock Exchange data, TEDPIX has been extending its monthslong rout, and is now hovering just above the 61,000 mark. Broad sell-offs, particularly in the important automotive sector amid negative adjustments in biannual company reports, have greatly contributed to the latest downturn. The TSE benchmark had gained some 6% in anticipation of a comprehensive nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers during the Iranian month that ended July 22. However, once the deal was clinched on July 14, the bubble burst. Accumulated gains gradually evaporated, stirring further concern among both retail and institutional investors. The benchmark TEDPIX tumbled over 4% last month, and a total of almost 12% since the nuclear deal was struck. The gloom currently hanging over Iran’s cash-strapped economy is broad, and encompasses many leading indicators. Mounting pain from falling commodity prices, the high level of nonperforming loans — estimated at up to $60 billion — the budget deficit of potentially 3.8% for the current Iranian year (which began March 21, 2015), the high rate of return being offered by banks and lingering sanctions are ensuring a bleak short-term outlook for the Iranian economy.
Oil and gas as well as petrochemicals dominate equity markets. Jointly, these sectors account for 38% of total market capitalization. They are followed by metals and minerals as well as the financial sector, which respectively account for 20% and 16% of market capitalization. Hence, any jitters in these sectors quickly rattle the market as a whole.
Among the many uncertainties, mining royalties, which have always been a subject of heated debate in the country, are weighing down the important mining sector. This industry has already been severely hit by China’s economic slowdown and the sanctions on Iran. Now, there are increasingly loud calls for a cut in the current 25% mining royalty, even though this would diminish the revenues of the government, which is already reeling from tumbling oil prices. About $550 million were to be collected in mining royalties in the current Iranian year. However, the amount has been reduced to $90 million following negotiations between parliament and Cabinet officials, said Jafar Sargini, the deputy minister of industries, mining and trade. Of note, the long-term royalty rate has not yet been fixed. Furthermore, ever-increasing ambiguities regarding feedstock prices are painting a hazy outlook for the significant petrochemical sector and pushing investors to the edge. Major Iranian petrochemical complexes are striving to convince the government to reduce feedstock prices and fix them for a 10-year period — currently 13 cents per cubic meter — in an effort to make the sector much more lucrative for foreign investors and help its performance. Iran is seeking almost $85 billion in foreign investment to overhaul its petrochemical industry. The looming rebound in oil prices along with feedstock price ambiguities are ratcheting up pressure mainly on shareholders.
Meanwhile, high interest rates for bank deposits are hanging over the stock market. In a bid to offset stock market losses or to cope with the pace of inflation, investors are fleeing to the safe haven of risk-free bank deposits and fixed-income instruments, including Islamic bonds — sukuk — and the newly debuted Islamic treasury bills. Given the situation, listed companies are feeling the pinch amid a strongly bearish sentiment. Also, the global commodities glut has dramatically diminished listed companies’ earnings in Iran’s export-oriented stock market. “Investment companies and funds are deleveraging and money is moving from equities to fixed-income instruments," Reza Soltanzadeh, CEO of Iran Industries Investment Company, told Al-Monitor:
Many state-owned commercial lenders are in an alarming state, as they hold high levels of toxic debt in their balance sheets. To replenish depleted resources, they have no choice except to lure investors with high interest rates, which can help them survive, Hossein Abdo Tabrizi, a member of the High Council of Exchange Market Representatives, told Al-Monitor. “Slashing the interest rate is a significant step to pique investors’ attention and send them back into the equity market,” Abdo Tabrizi said. He further elaborated that pension funds used to be the chief liquidity providers in the equity market. However, they now experience more cash outflows than inflows, which is pressuring them to dump shares instead of shoring up portfolios. When President Hassan Rouhani took office in August 2013, his economic team was geared to manage the rising liquidity issue in a bid to tame stubborn inflation. Hence, interest rates for bank deposits went up to swallow the liquidity. Money flocked to the banks as a safe haven for investments, with up to 25% in annual interest. This policy has been successful in terms of subduing inflation. However, it has been accompanied by a persistent liquidity drain in the equity market.
The credit crunch has ultimately curbed investors' enthusiasm about shoring up their portfolios and triggered sell-offs in the stock market, Mehdi Naji, a senior market analyst at Hafez brokerage, told Al-Monitor. "The money market is offering a risk-free investment with 25% yield annually, though the equity market's yield since the beginning of the current Iranian year has been even below zero with an average P/E ratio at almost five."The TSE, which has a market capitalization of close to $91 billion, has also seen its daily trade volume take a hit from the recent commodities glut. Daily trade volume used to be almost $90 million; however, the cloud of pessimism drove daily trade volume down to $20 million in the last week of September. Yet, despite the dark clouds, the Iranian economy is expected to experience a positive momentum by early 2016, when major Western sanctions are to be removed. Fresh stimulus, including foreign direct investment and repatriation of frozen assets abroad, are seen as likely to trigger a persistent upward trend at the stock market. However, until then, uncertainty appears set to continue at the Tehran Stock Exchange.

Tunisia Nobel Peace Prize resonates across Middle East
Al-Monitor Staff/October 14/15
Democracy activists across the Middle East are taking solace in the Nobel recognition for Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution while their own Arab Spring dreams remain unfulfilled. Political reformers from Morocco to Egypt to Syria say the Tunisian quartet’s peace prize win is a small but symbolic victory for a protest movement that has either fizzled out or exploded into chaos everywhere else. They hope it will recharge activists while showing Arab leaders the virtues of peaceful democratic change. “Tunisia was the only Arab Spring country that carried out the revolution correctly, thus it deserves to reap the benefits,” Tamer el-Kady, spokesman for Egypt’s Revolution Youth Union, told Al-Monitor. In Egypt, he said, “We have now been deceived, [we have] returned to something worse than the [Hosni] Mubarak regime, violating all principles of the constitution.”More than 330 Tunisians were killed during the December 2010 uprising that led to the fall of President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet of unionists, lawyers and human rights activists was formed in 2013 to save a democratic transition that threatened to go off the rails amid institutional gridlock and political assassinations.
Safwan Mohamed, a liberal activist who was among the first to sign a 2010 petition calling for political reforms under former President Mubarak, called the Nobel prize a “great achievement” for peaceful political transitions. He vowed that Egypt’s youth movement still had “more visions, ideas and alternate plans” to offer but that taking to the streets to protest “would be insane.”
“Although I am happy that Tunisia won the prize, we despair over what Egypt has come to,” liberal activist Safwan Mohamed told Al-Monitor. “We deserved to be pioneers of the Arab Spring.”Others, by contrast, took offense at what they deemed a Western “conspiracy” against countries that have cracked down on political Islamists. “The ones deserving of this prize are the Egyptian people, who eliminated a fascist religious regime,” Mohamed Nabawi, spokesman and co-founder of the anti-Muslim Brotherhood Tamarod Movement, told Al-Monitor. “We believe that Nobel Prize nominations are part of the global conspiracies.” And Tarek el-Kholy, founder of the Youth of the Third Republic Front that backs Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, called the prize “politicized and no longer neutral.”“I felt that Tunisia winning this prize was a type of ruse and a political message that the West is not satisfied with Egypt,” Kholy told Al-Monitor. “[It was meant to] suggest that Egypt had strayed from the path of the revolution.” Assaad Thebian, a leader of Lebanon’s You Stink movement protesting the government’s corruption and paralysis, applauded the Nobel as an “amazing honor” for the Tunisian people. He noted that the country’s “secular state” and “very liberal political life for decades” eased the transition away from strongman rule under Ben Ali.
“It is a strong message sent to the countries that witnessed an Arab Spring that peaceful change is the destiny and there is no other choice but dialogue between the components of any nation,” Thebian said in a statement to Al-Monitor, speaking only for himself. “Tunisia was remarkable in their democratic change process contrary to other Arab countries and should be a role model.” The Oct. 9 announcement also offered a flicker of hope for besieged Syrians whose own peaceful uprising has since given way to a civil war that has left more than 200,000 dead over the past 4½ years. Hassan Kattan, a 24-year-old activist who participated in the Aleppo mosque demonstrations in 2012, told Al-Monitor that recognizing peaceful protesters was “good and exhilarating.”
"Certainly, the Tunisians winning the Nobel Peace Prize motivates us,” Kattan said. “Perhaps we can say that it is the sole light amid the darkness and frustration we suffer from. The truth is that we [Syrian revolutionaries] have been disappointed by the whole world because of their silence."
Closer to Tunisia, Moroccan Green Party leader Fatima Alaoui took to social media to bemoan the lack of progress four years after a Tunisian fruit vendor set the Arab Spring in motion by setting himself on fire. “Thank you Nobel 2015 for the courage to remind us of our revolutions, our lost springs and our unrepresentative parliaments,” the longtime activist wrote on Facebook. Such reactions appear to be exactly what the Nobel committee was aiming for with this year’s peace prize.
“The Norwegian Nobel Committee hopes that this year's prize will contribute toward safeguarding democracy in Tunisia and be an inspiration to all those who seek to promote peace and democracy in the Middle East, North Africa and the rest of the world,” the committee said in its announcement. “More than anything, the prize is intended as an encouragement to the Tunisian people, who despite major challenges have laid the groundwork for a national fraternity which the Committee hopes will serve as an example to be followed by other countries.” Those wishes were echoed by Western leaders from US President Barack Obama to British Prime Minister David Cameron, who view democratic change as an antidote to radical Islam. Arab leaders also heard the message loud and clear, and for the most part responded with silence. Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who is seeking a leadership role in North Africa, was one of just a handful of leaders to publicly congratulate Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi — while sidestepping any mention of what the Nobel Prize means for the struggle for democracy in the wider region. "I seize this happy opportunity to welcome the privileged and exemplary relations between our two brotherly countries and reiterate Algeria's constant support to the Tunisian people and government and to the process of renewal and dialogue," Bouteflika said. “Algeria will spare no effort in building the great Arab Maghreb which will bring progress, prosperity, peace, security and stability to our peoples."
Queen Noor of Jordan, an early champion of the Arab Spring movement, was one of a very few Arab leaders to acknowledge Tunisia as a model for the region.
“I am so very proud that the Tunisian example for our region has been acknowledged in this way," she tweeted Oct. 9.
Human rights groups were also quick to celebrate the “hope” that the Nobel Prize offers to peaceful protesters who seek a middle way between authoritarianism and radicalism. “In a region torn apart by wars, sectarian violence and religious extremism, desperation and cynicism have become the new normal,” Ahmed Benchemsi, director of advocacy and communications for Human Rights Watch in the Middle East and North Africa, told Al-Monitor in a statement. “In that context, this Nobel Prize shows that hope is not dead, and offers a much-needed positive message: that peaceful conflict resolution and democracy building do work! Even better: such efforts can become a matter of national pride and international recognition.” Even the most patient Arab Spring revolutionaries, however, are left wanting much more. "I don't think there is any prize in the world befitting the extent of the sacrifices made by peaceful activists in Syria, after four years of patience and struggling with the terrorism of the Syrian regime and IS [Islamic State],” Kattan said. "Unfortunately, we as Syrian activists have lost hope in the international community, after many false promises to help us. The Nobel Prize is something symbolic, yet the international community must take real, serious steps to save the Syrian people.”

The One-Minute Guide to Obama's Foreign Policy
Daniel Pipes/Oct 13/15/Cross-posted from national Review Online, The Corner.We who follow U.S. foreign policy, and especially the Middle East, sometimes get asked whether Barack Obama is a community organizing naïf way out of his depth or a brilliant ideologue who knows exactly what he is doing? Is he inept or purposeful? Does he see his foreign policy as a failure or a success? My reply: Not one or the other but a bit of both. He is a leftist who sees the imperialism, militarism, and corporate greed of the United States as a menace to the outside world. He conceives of his role being to reach out to enemies, reduce America's cowboy ways, make it one of the pack, and render the world a safer place.But he is also the president on whose watch we find not security but anarchy and despotism. Reduced America's influence has lead to revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, renewed civil wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, conflagrations in Libya, Yemen, and Syria, Russian military intervention, and unfathomable future troubles from a nuclear Iran.

The Most Important Nobel Winner You've Never Heard Of
Sarah Feuer/Politico/Washington Institute/October 14/15
The Nobel Committee rightfully recognized the strong civil society institutions that mediated Tunisia's difficult political transition at a time when other regional states were falling into chaos.There's nothing flashy about this year's Nobel Peace Prize recipient. Outside Tunisia and the small community of Tunisia watchers, most people had likely never heard of the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet before the announcement. The group seems unglamorous compared to Pope Francis, Edward Snowden, Angela Merkel and others who were evidently up for consideration. And that makes it a superb selection.
In the summer of 2013, two years into its democratic transition, Tunisia was reeling from a series of high-profile political assassinations, jihadist attacks on military installations and nearly a month of mass protests calling for the resignation of the post-uprising government. Tunisian society had become more and more polarized -- a development I witnessed firsthand in 2012 while living there as a graduate student -- with public officials spouting increasingly hyperbolic rhetoric and citizens reporting diminishing trust in the transition. To prevent the collapse of the country's budding and still fragile democracy, the Tunisian League of Human Rights, the Tunisian General Labor Union, the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers (akin to a Bar Association) came together and formed a "Quartet" to mediate a compromise between the political parties.
As the Nobel Committee was careful to point out, this year's prize did not go to the individual organizations of the Quartet but to the quartet as a whole. There is a poignant message in Oslo's decision to award such a prestigious prize to a group of organizations made up of thousands of individuals, rather than to a single person or even to a single organization.
The academic literature has long stressed a high correlation between the strength of a country's democracy and the robustness of its civil society. The four organizations comprising the Quartet occupied that sacred space between the state and the family and that likely lent it the credibility needed to lead a national dialogue. One wonders if the Arab states that enjoyed their brief "spring" -- but later succumbed to seemingly irreconcilable political differences -- might have followed in Tunisia's footsteps had their civil societies been strong enough to support organizations capable of stepping in to mediate. In Tunisia, anyway, an academic theory became an empirical reality, and democracy scholars will likely be studying the Quartet's role in Tunisia's transition for years to come.
Though the award is shared equally amongst these groups, it is still worth spotlighting each member organization. These are, after all, the types of groups that less free countries need to build if they hope to make the transition from authoritarianism to democracy.
The Tunisian League of Human Rights, the oldest human rights organization in the Arab world (Tunisia boasts a long history of regional firsts), was founded in the mid-1970s by a group of liberals who had broken away from the increasingly autocratic ruling party of then-President Habib Bourguiba. After the state reluctantly granted the league formal recognition in 1977, its lawyers, professors, doctors and journalists spent decades investigating the regime's human rights violations. It also conducted and publicized studies on issues ranging from torture to freedom of speech to constitutional matters. And it advocated on behalf of the government's victims -- including some of the Islamists imprisoned under Bourguiba's successor, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, who would lose his grip on power during the unrest of 2011.
To expand labor rights, the league's activists often worked hand in hand with members of the Tunisian General Labor Union (widely known by its French acronym UGTT). The oldest of the four Quartet members, the UGTT was founded in 1946 by many of the same individuals who went on to secure independence from the French a decade later. The organization's involvement in the struggle for independence lent it an enormous legitimacy, and throughout the Bourguiba and Ben Ali eras it remained the only independent broad-based movement capable of mobilizing masses -- a fact that occasionally brought it into conflict (sometimes deadly) with the regime. Suffice it to say the UGTT has always been more than a simple labor union, and today it boasts some 800,000 mostly public-sector members, a sizable percentage of the population in a country with a little under 11 million citizens.
The third Quartet member was the nation's premier private-sector union, the Tunisian Confederation of Industry, Trade and Handicrafts (which is also known by its French acronym, UTICA). Founded in 1947, the UTICA represents nearly 150,000 businesses in the nonagricultural sectors (excluding tourism and banking). The organization represents the business community in negotiations with the government and has been working to develop partnerships with foreign companies, all with the aim of improving the investment climate in Tunisia as the country struggles to revive its economy.
Rounding out the Quartet was the Tunisian Order of Lawyers, an independent organization representing and advocating on behalf of the country's lawyers since the 1970s. Lawyers, perhaps not surprisingly, were prime targets of repression under the Bourguiba and Ben Ali periods, and since the 2011 uprising the Order (to which all lawyers belong) has been a central player in efforts to establish an independent judiciary and implement legal protections for the thousands of Tunisians taking up the legal profession.
These, then, were the organizations that came together in 2013 to seek a way out of the political impasse. The aim of the National Dialogue, as the talks arranged by the Quartet came to be known, was to pressure the parliament's Islamist and non-Islamist factions into hashing out a compromise that would break the gridlock and get the political process back on track. Glamorous work this was not. For nearly three months, the Quartet oversaw what was by most accounts a messy, exhausting and frustrating process. On more than one occasion, the talks broke down. But as a result of the Quartet's mediation efforts, the government that had come to power following the uprising, which was dominated by the Islamist Ennahda Party, agreed to step down and cede control to a caretaker government. In turn, a new constitution -- the most progressive in the Arab world -- was approved, direct elections were scheduled, and the country managed to avoid chaos.
The commentary on Tunisia following the National Dialogue tended to attribute the success of the talks to the dominant political participants rather than the dialogue's conveners. It was said, not unreasonably, that Ennahda and its co-founder Rached Ghannouchi displayed magnanimity in ultimately accepting many of the opposition's demands and allowing an unelected, technocratic government to take the reins in early 2014. Secularists like Beji Caid Essebsi, then leader of the Nidaa Tounes party and now the country's president, were applauded for dropping their insistence on dissolving the parliament and yielding to the Islamists' preference for a more robust legislature. In recent months, there were even rumors that the Nobel might go to Ghannouchi and Essebsi jointly, in recognition of their apparent, if grudging, willingness to work together.
I'm glad the Nobel Committee chose otherwise. Arguably the real leaders in that decisive moment were not the politicians, though their concessions should not be minimized. The most important political actors were the vigilant citizens of Tunisia's civil society, often with names unknown beyond their neighborhoods. When I was living in Tunis in 2012, I saw these citizens attending countless workshops -- organized by this or that civil society organization -- and debating the latest constitutional drafts up for consideration in parliament. Two years later, I saw them fanning out around the country to staff the polling stations and ensure a smooth, free and fair parliamentary election. It is only appropriate that Oslo recognized the organizations through which the people of Tunisia exercised this power.
The Nobel Committee's decision will give Tunisians a much-needed psychological boost as they continue to slog through the next phases of their transition and tackle serious economic and security challenges. The prize has already prompted renewed statements of support from the country's Western allies. As it should. Tunisia stands in contrast to the terrible trends taking hold across the region: witness the carnage in Assad's Syria, the expanding terror of the so-called Islamic State, regression in Egypt, chaos in Libya, a proxy war in Yemen, and an ossified regime in Algeria, to cite just a few examples. It is the only Arab Spring country to remain on a recognizable, if bumpy, path to democracy (though Morocco, it should be said, has embarked on gradual reform process.) In my travels across North Africa and my conversations with observers of the Arab world on this side of the Atlantic, Tunisia is often praised and then dismissed as "too small" to matter much for the rest of the region, let alone the world. Perhaps. But this small country is implementing some pretty big ideas.
One of those ideas takes aim at the dangerous zero-sum, winner-take-all approach to politics that has evidently become the governing method of choice across much of the Middle East -- to say nothing of the United States Congress, where toxic partisanship has made "compromise" a four-letter word. (The irony of a dysfunctional Congress holding up a request for greater assistance to a struggling democracy like Tunisia should be lost on no one.) The achievements of this year's Nobel Peace Prize winners are a testament to the often thankless, always messy and rarely glamorous work that must go into building and maintaining a healthy democracy.
**Sarah Feuer is a Soref Fellow at The Washington Institute and was an election observer during Tunisia's 2014 parliamentary vote.

Whether Britain bombs ISIS or not, it will still be failing Syria
Chris Doyle/Al Arabiya/October 14/15
A leading American commentator at a meeting in London joked not entirely without foundation that if British forces joined those bombing ISIS that would be significant reducing the American share from 93% of all strikes to about 92%. Harsh perhaps but given that 12 other countries have been bombing Syria over the last four years (including lest we forget Syria itself), one has to wonder whether a few Royal Air Force planes will be a game changer in the fight against ISIS. Yes, for the fourth time since 2010, the British Parliament is faced with a possible vote on intervention in the Middle East. For many, this is far from an easy decision. The British government is keen to get Parliamentary approval for expanding its anti-ISIS bombing in Iraq to Syria joining the French who started on September 27.The vote is far from guaranteed. David Cameron, the Prime Minister, arguably had his credibility damaged when he lost a vote on intervention in 2013 after the chemical weapons attacks in Syria had killed some 1400 Syrians. On that occasion he was defeated because of 30 rebels from his own Conservative party and a Labour party that refused to back him. Cameron has made it clear that he will not seek approval unless he is assured he will win. Two defeats would be unthinkable. The new Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is staunchly anti-war. He may or may not permit his Labour MPs a free vote. Labour party members voted only in September to support military action only if there was U.N. Security Council authorization, a position Even if not many are inclined to vote in favor. With this in mind, over 50 MPs have had briefings from the Defense Secretary on the military plans. Party whips estimate they need around 35 Labour MPs to vote in favor to offset the probably rebels on the Conservative side. Many on the Labour side are torn. Broadly speaking they are hugely concerned at the situation in Syria and the expansion of ISIS. Doing nothing is not appealing but they also question just what exactly is the purpose of yet more bombing from on high. Others are nervous about backing another failed military action.
A huge Achilles heel
In sign of significant internal party debate, it appears the Labour leadership could contemplate supporting action without a U.N. Security Council Resolution. Given three Security Council members are significantly engaged in military action for very differing reasons, getting a resolution is currently a non-starter and therefore a hollow position to demand it. he British debate is a perfect encapsulation of the paucity of the international debate on Syria. The government has a huge Achilles heel. The proposed military action requires an all-embracing political strategy, a clear definition of success. There is none. Philip Hammond, the Foreign Secretary, felt all too comfortable at the U.N. in stating that Britain will bomb ISIS in Iraq “for as long as it takes.” It is not clear what “it” means nor would it be in Syria. In private, ministers and officials know perfectly well that merely asking for an aerial intervention looks weak. Where are the ground forces that British planes would be supporting? There is the accusation that they will become merely another air arm of the Assad regime taking out ISIS as Russian forces take out other Syrian opposition forces in the West. Moreover, given ISIS has not buckled after over 7,000 airstrikes so far by the anti-ISIS coalition, it is clear the group has adapted effectively to bombardment. Another significant grouping in Parliament wants action to end the barrel bombing of Syrian cities either by a No-Fly-Zone or a No-Bomb-Zone. The latter is brought about by prohibiting bombing in declared areas and enforced by deterrent bombing from the sea. Any violation of the zone would bring about shelling of runways. The advantage over the No-Fly-Zone proposal is that it does not require substantive bombing and inevitable destruction to knock out the Syrian anti-air defense system. The aim is to address the biggest killer in this pitiless Syrian conflict – the indiscriminate use of barrel bombs. Yet skeptics argue, how this can be introduced without Russian consent or an American President willing to stare down his Russian counterpart? The harsh reality is that nobody has a strategy in Britain or internationally to resolve the crisis in Syria upon which groups like ISIS actually depend. The level of debate frequently plummets to the depths of just opting for Assad or ISIS, analogous to the choice of siding with Stalin or Hitler. Putin’s argument of supporting the Syrian regime to be the foot soldiers against the extremist group has its supporters. But just as toppling Assad does not end the conflict, nor will crushing ISIS.
Still failing Syria
Only an overall new political deal for Syria can work. Only when the international, regional and local actors can unite behind such a deal is there any chance of pulling the country out of the hellhole it now occupies. One of the few advantages of Putin’s high risk gamble in Syria is that the Assad regime is directly dependent on Russian support allowing the Russian President to call the shots perhaps for the first time. But even Putin, who cannot afford a protracted intervention, will need an exit and a political deal is the only key to it. Wise political actors will help him to find it. Arguably the biggest threat to both the regime and ISIS is an end of conflict. ISIS thrives on the conflict whilst the regime does not have to answer tough questions as long as the fighting continues. With no conflict, local support for ISIS will evaporate. Regime loyalist circles can do little with the leadership when under threat but ultimately they all know Assad and co have failed them and Syria.
The British debate is a perfect encapsulation of the paucity of the international debate on Syria. It is good versus evil, black and white approach, more concerned with posturing and positioning that grappling with the complexities at hand. International actors are divided between those invested in the war and those who simply have no clue how to end it. Britain is for now in the latter camp. Joining the fight against ISIS in Syria may have the appearance of toughness but all the reality of acute weakness. Whether Britain bombs ISIS or not, it will still be failing Syria. The bombs may all hit their targets but the aim will not be met.

West’s options limited against Russian escalation
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/October 14/15
The Russian offensive in Syria has been ongoing for almost two weeks. Whatever the reactions of the international community, all it can do is make declarations, threaten new sanctions, or appeal for a halt to the operation, none of which will be effective. Russian President Vladimir Putin played the game the international community thrust upon him, and it seems he has won, moving quickly and unpredictably. Moscow has filled the vacuum created by the West’s unrealistic, unconstructive approach to the Syrian conflict. Its plan is strong, but still dubious in terms of regional and global consequences. Putin has left little space for any counter-manoeuver by the West - a forceful response would cause World War III. He was sure from the start of the Russian escalation that the West would not reciprocate, but there is still a high risk of a proxy war between the United States and Russia. This would endanger regional and global stability. There are already signs of a proxy war, including the decision to continue supporting Syrian rebels on the ground. However, such support is unlikely to be tangible, and the Syrian army will likely push back its enemies with Russian help by the time U.S. aid arrives. A lack of support is not good either, as it will hinder the chances of a political transition.
Building bridges or walls?
So the international community is left with two options. Either it works in parallel with the Russian-led coalition, occasionally threatening Moscow with new sanctions in case Russian airstrikes do not target the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Or fruitful cooperation is launched, which would create a counterbalancing system and overcome antagonisms. Putin has left little space for any counter-manoeuver by the West - a forceful response would cause World War III. Russia is not expected to join the international coalition as it considers it illegitimate, and there is no use imposing anything or threatening Moscow. With the ongoing operation, Russia has already shown its military might, and the costs involved are not a problem. Storing weapons is also very expensive, while using them proves their capabilities, and provides the country’s military-industrial complex with new orders and opportunities. Russia has shown that it is back on the world stage, with a strong will to fight for its interests and counter the challenges it faces. Moscow has changed its military and foreign policies, and the West has to deal with that. The current manoeuvers of NATO and Western powers show that they will likely do so by building walls instead of bridges, thus increasing tensions. Syria is likely to be the catalyst.

The two U.N. speeches that hinted at Israeli-Palestinian escalation
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/October 14/15
One of the most futile exercises that any commentator on Israeli-Palestinian affairs can undertake at the moment is to consider whether we are witnessing the beginning of a third uprising. The resurgence of violence is a sad inevitability when there is no political horizon for a peaceful end to the conflict, nor even hope for a genuine prospect for peace negotiations. Whether there is already a third Palestinian uprising on its way depends on if we measure it by the intensity of violence or the level of motivation and resentment, especially among young Palestinians. Both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s addresses to the U.N. General Assembly provided a sense that neither leader possesses the necessary common ground or ability to avert a new uprising. They almost brace themselves for the fact that the near future harbors more bloodshed than any prospect for peace. What they mainly share at the moment, and was clearly reflected in their speeches, is a sense of despair.
Unfortunately, their speeches were more of an effort to galvanize their own constituencies at home and abroad, rather reaching out to one another. For those on both sides who resort to violence anyway, these speeches were neither here nor there. They have already made up their minds that the diplomatic route had its day long ago. Both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’s and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s addresses to the U.N. General Assembly provided a sense that neither leader possesses the necessary common ground or ability to avert a new uprising
Despair and mutual finger-pointing are where the parallels between Netanyahu’s and Abbas’s U.N. appearances cease. Abbas knows he is rapidly losing whatever is left of Palestinian popular support for his leadership and his policies. Despite lapses in his historical account, he came across as the more genuine of the two.
In the twilight of his leadership, not only is the two-state solution that he advocates quickly disappearing, but also his longstanding advocacy of non-violence is left with ever-dwindling support among many Palestinians. The veteran peace negotiator seems to be resigned to the fact that the next phase in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be confrontation on the streets, instead of sitting around the negotiating table. As for his scathing, and for the most part accurate, criticism of current Israeli government policies, particularly on the issues of settlements and Jerusalem, he sees no salvation but proactive involvement by the international community. However, with his experience he knows that unwillingness, incompetence, and a change of priorities in the region at the moment makes this option remote.
Diversion
Not surprisingly, Netanyahu devoted most of his speech to attacking the nuclear deal with Iran. It was an apocalyptic and overly theatrical speech that underlined, almost embraced, Israel as a country with very few friends around the world. He knows well that his diplomatic and military options are very limited.
Once again, his legitimate concerns over Iran vis-à-vis long-term verification, support of militancy and the unacceptable threatening language against Israel is falling victim to his own uncompromising approach and hollow rhetoric. His 45-second silent staring at the General Assembly could only be described as awkward and counterproductive. His concentration on Iran instead of the more urgent issue of relations with the Palestinians exposed, when he eventually referred to it, that Iran is also a convenient diversion from events much closer to home. Even then, he offered only old slogans with little substance.
His call for an immediate resumption of negotiations with no preconditions, immediately followed by two preconditions - a demilitarized Palestinian state that recognizes Israel as a Jewish state - deserved the skepticism it was met with in many international quarters.
Flawed leadership
Netanyahu prefers to deliver his big vision on Iran and what he sees as the danger to the world from militant Islam, rather than deal with advancing a peaceful solution with the Palestinians. He shows a complete lack of leadership and direction even in managing the conflict. It took him many months to prohibit members of his own government and the Israeli parliament from entering the Temple Mount, knowing all along that this violation of the status quo on Muslim holy sites provokes tension not only with the Palestinians, but potentially with the entire Muslim world. He was only prompted to act when violent clashes spread from East Jerusalem to the usually tranquil streets of Jaffa and Nazareth within Israel, and when a confrontation with thousands of Palestinians in Gaza, marching toward the fence separating them from Israel, ended with six Palestinians dead - yet another example epitomizing his reactive and strategically flawed premiership.
The most immediate concern for Israel, and to a large extent for the Palestinians, is if the Palestinian Authority (PA) implements Abbas’s threat at the General Assembly to free itself from the Oslo Accords. It might compromise the security coordination between the two, and place the onus on Israel to run the daily affairs of Palestinians in the West Bank, which as the occupying force it is required to do by international law. This is not an attractive prospect for either side. Yet the spate of indiscriminate violence on both sides requires more than anything else an attentive political response from all involved, and even more from the international community. Rousing speeches at the United Nations might make those who deliver them feel exonerated, but they do not change the unfortunate facts on the ground.

News Bulletin Achieves Since 2006 Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006

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