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Bible Quotation For Today/No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old.
Luke 05/33-39: "Then they said to Jesus, ‘John’s disciples, like the disciples of the Pharisees, frequently fast and pray, but your disciples eat and drink.’Jesus said to them, ‘You cannot make wedding-guests fast while the bridegroom is with them, can you?
The days will come when the bridegroom will be taken away from them, and then they will fast in those days.’He also told them a parable: ‘No one tears a piece from a new garment and sews it on an old garment; otherwise the new will be torn, and the piece from the new will not match the old.
And no one puts new wine into old wineskins; otherwise the new wine will burst the skins and will be spilled, and the skins will be destroyed. But new wine must be put into fresh wineskins. And no one after drinking old wine desires new wine, but says, "The old is good."".

Bible Quotation For Today/the inhabitants of the earth will gloat over them and celebrate and exchange presents, because these two prophets had been a torment to the inhabitants of the earth.
Book of Revelation 11/01-12: "Then I was given a measuring rod like a staff, and I was told, ‘Come and measure the temple of God and the altar and those who worship there, but do not measure the court outside the temple; leave that out, for it is given over to the nations, and they will trample over the holy city for forty-two months. And I will grant my two witnesses authority to prophesy for one thousand two hundred and sixty days, wearing sackcloth.’These are the two olive trees and the two lampstands that stand before the Lord of the earth. And if anyone wants to harm them, fire pours from their mouth and consumes their foes; anyone who wants to harm them must be killed in this manner. They have authority to shut the sky, so that no rain may fall during the days of their prophesying, and they have authority over the waters to turn them into blood, and to strike the earth with every kind of plague, as often as they desire.When they have finished their testimony, the beast that comes up from the bottomless pit will make war on them and conquer them and kill them, and their dead bodies will lie in the street of the great city that is prophetically called Sodom and Egypt, where also their Lord was crucified. For three and a half days members of the peoples and tribes and languages and nations will gaze at their dead bodies and refuse to let them be placed in a tomb; and the inhabitants of the earth will gloat over them and celebrate and exchange presents, because these two prophets had been a torment to the inhabitants of the earth.
But after the three and a half days, the breath of life from God entered them, and they stood on their feet, and those who saw them were terrified. Then they heard a loud voice from heaven saying to them, ‘Come up here!’ And they went up to heaven in a cloud while their enemies watched them.".

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on October 07-08/15
Micheal Aoun Is Not Christian in practicality or Mentality, Nor His Trojan FPM Commercial Company/Elias Bejjani/October 07/15
Junblatt says he could back Aoun for president/Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/October 07/15
Inciting a clash with Russia/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Children’s education: the silent victim of Mideast war/Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Syria: Russia’s Afghanistan 2.0/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Russian Overflight of Turkey: More Than Meets the Eye/James F. Jeffrey/WAshington Institute/October 07/15
A royal solution to Libya’s chaos/Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Putin's Syria Adventure Is an Opportunity for Washington and Ankara/Lt Col John R. Barnett/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Abbas Calls for Murder, Palestinians Attack/Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 07/15
Iraqi Writer, Farouq Yousef : Only Arab Societies Can Bring The Era Of The False Jihad To An End/MEMRI/October 07/15
Saudi prince alleges capture of Iranian military, Hezbollah in Yemen/Barbara Slavin/Al-Monito/ October07/15
Another Syrian nightmare, courtesy of the Russians/Fehim Taştekin/Al-Monito/ October07/15
Is the Oslo Accord at death's door/Daoud Kuttab/Al-Monito/ October07/15

Micheal Aoun Is Not Christian in practicality or Mentality, Nor His Trojan FPM Commercial Company
Elias Bejjani/October 07/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/10/07/elias-bejjani-micheal-aoun-is-not-christian-in-practicality-or-mentality-nor-his-trojan-fpm-commercial-company/
Christianity is not a mere tag as MP. Micheal Aoun alleges and evilly advocates for around the clock in a bid to deceive the Lebanese in general and the Lebanese Christians in particular. Christianity is a set of practical every day acts composed of love, forgiveness, humility, tolerance, fear of Almighty God and His Day of Judgment and sacrifices.
Therefore, and in accordance with all known Christian standards, MP. Micheal Aoun knows nothing about the core and essence of Christianity neither in his narcissistic on going greedy conduct, or in his vulgar rhetoric, hatred, grudges, aggressiveness, bizarre life style, alliances, relationship with others and worship of every thing that is earthly.
Accordingly in our eyes and patriotic convictions, as well as in the eyes and convictions of many Lebanese Christians in both Lebanon and Diaspora, and in particular Maronites, MP. Micheal Aoun is a mere false Messiah no more no less.
In the same context his family commercial company named for camouflage reasons, Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) has nothing to do with Christians or Christianity and definitely is not entrusted or qualified by any means or under any circumstances to defend their cause or advocate for any of their rights.
In Summary MP. Micheal Aoun and his commercial family FPM so called party, are mere temple merchants, Pharisees and mercenaries.
*Elias Bejjani
Canadian-Lebanese Human Rights activist, journalist and political commentator
Email phoenicia@hotmail.com
Web sites http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com & http://www.10452lccc.com & http://www.clhrf.com
Tweets on https://twitter.com/phoeniciaelias
Face Book https://www.facebook.com/groups/128479277182033 & https://www.facebook.com/elias.y.bejjani

Junblatt says he could back Aoun for president
Joseph A. Kechichian/Gulf News/October 07/15
Hanover, New Hamsphire: Lebanese Progressive Socialist Party leader Walid Junblatt dropped a bombshell on Tuesday night when he said that nothing preventing him from backing Free Patriotic Leader Michel Aoun as president, a position he has vehemently rejected in the past. In comments made to the Al Safir daily, the Druze leader infamous for his political flip-flopping, said electing Aoun as president will not change Lebanon’s difficulties because the president’s jurisdictions ‘have become limited’. “It is enough that he is forced to sign a decree within a specified period of time, while a minister has the ability to put it in the drawer,” he said. However, Junblatt’s comments begged two important questions: 1) Why did he field Henri Helou, an anti-Aoun candidate in May 2014 and 2) Why did he not coordinate with Hezbollah to assure a quorum and vote for Aoun during any of the past 28 sessions? Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when Michel Sulaiman’s term ended. Since then, political deadlock in the country, mainly due to the ongoing crisis in Syria has been rampant. Lebanon’s two main political camps have fielded their own candidates. The pro-Syrian March 8 movement, of which Hezbollah is a part of, continue to insist on Aoun for the seat. The anti-Syrian March 14 movement is fielding Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea instead. Deep mistrust between the two blocs has been the driving force of political stagnation in the country. This was the knot that Speaker Nabih Berri tried to untie, seeking to lower tensions by reaching deals over promotions and appointments for several military and security officers. Yet, and no matter the putative accords reached around the dialogue table, only the cabinet was empowered to approve the promotion of three senior army officers, among them Commando Regiment chief Brigadier-General Chamel Roukoz, a Aoun son-in-law, to the rank of major general. Given that Prime Minister Tammam Salam vowed not to convene such a meeting unless the FPM and Hezbollah ministers committed themselves not to sabotage the cabinet, chances were poor that such a gathering was in the offing anytime soon. Ever the survivor, Junblatt—who previously accused Syria of assassinating his father—believed that the publicly pro-Syrian Aoun could not change the body politic, although no one wished to take that chance. Lebanese officials were reportedly working on a new settlement on the promotion of military officers before October 15, the day Roukoz is scheduled to retire, with the hope that keeping the latter in the military institution would allow him to be eligible to become army commander. Few concerned themselves with the impact that a deal would have on the army where promotions was the norm for those who earned them.

Tweets For Today adressing Canadian Elections
Elias Bejjani
Fron now we can say Congratulations to PM. Mr Harper. He enjoys the support of 70% in the coming elections. Great, Just great
Very good news. 70% of the Canadians support Mr. Harper and the Conservative Party. This shows that the Canadians want Mr. Harper to form the new government. Great Just great

Nasrallah pessimistic over Lebanon political solution
Now Lebanon/07 October/15/The Hezbollah chief called on #YouStink to present “clear demands.”BEIRUT – Hezbollah’s leader has voiced his pessimism over breaking Lebanon’s political impasse as the country’s political leaders huddle for a three-day national dialogue. “There is no [possibility] for a solution in the country because everyone is waiting on the regional situation to finalize their decisions, despite the fact that they could make a decision and refrain from relying on the outside [world],” Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in comments published Wednesday. Amid a heavy security presence, leaders of all the country’s parties, except the Lebanese Forces, gathered at noon Wednesday in yet another attempt to hammer out a political understanding to elect a new president—a post vacant since Michel Suleiman’s term ended in May 2014—and find a mechanism to get Lebanon’s paralyzed cabinet to meet effectively again. Free Patriotic Movement leader MP Michel Aoun—who Nasrallah supports as a presidential candidate—has been at the center of the political deadlock, refusing to take part in most cabinet sessions until top ranking army officers—including his own son-in-law General Chamel Roukoz—are promoted. Negotiations to reach a deal over the promotions have so far reached a dead end, while Aoun’s Christian party plans to hold a mass rally outside the Presidential Palace in Baabda on October 11. Aoun has also supported electing a new parliament before a presidential vote, arguing that the current legislature lost its legitimacy after twice extending its mandate after a failure to approve an electoral law.
Nasrallah in his comments threw his support behind the Christian leader’s demand for a proportional electoral law, saying it “reflects correct representation.” “It is the March 14 alliance that rejects this law, especially the Future Movement, which fears the rise to prominence of new political forces and leaders,” Nasrallah said in comments published by Al-Akhbar. “They know that in the last elections they lost 35% of their votes to March 8’s Sunnis,” the Hezbollah chief further claimed. With regard to the popular #YouStink movement that has formed as a reaction to Lebanon’s trash crisis, Nasrallah said that “the demands are legitimate but we are in the middle of battle and at the moment we cannot enter in to an internal debate.”“Also, the movement must have clear leaders and goals before it calls [for action].”The cabinet last met on September 9 to agree on a waste management plan after trash built up on the streets of Beirut and surrounding areas of Mount Lebanon following the closure of the Naameh landfill on July 17. The government’s failure to initially address the trash crisis in the mid-summer sparked a growing protest movement that has seen civil society groups call for the resignation of Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk after security forces responded to a series of gatherings in a heavy-handed manner. Protesters last held a mass-rally in Downtown Beirut on September 25, while Lebanon’s government has yet to enact its own trash plan. Activists have held smaller street demonstrations since, while threatening renewed mass protests in the near future.

Five Soldiers Wounded in Shelling on Ras Baalbek
Naharnet/October 07/15/Several soldiers were injured on Wednesday in shelling on the outskirts of the northern Beqaa Valley of Ras Baalbek, the National News Agency reported. An army position in the neighborhood of Tallet Jarash came under shelling slightly, injuring five of its members. The Voice of Lebanon Radio (93.3) said that the shelling was carried out by Islamic State militants.The army responded to the source of fire targeting a position of terrorist militants, NNA added.

Thursday's Dialogue Session Canceled as Military Promotions Talks Collapse
Naharnet/October 07/15/A national dialogue session scheduled for Thursday has been called off and the next session will be held on October 26, state-run National News Agency reported after Wednesday's session ended at the parliament. “I submitted my paper on the characteristics of the next president in a bid to reconcile viewpoints. We won't be able to elect a president without a 'full package',” said Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat after leaving the dialogue session. Meanwhile, Tourism Minister Michel Pharaon said the Free Patriotic Movement “rejected discussing the (military) promotions settlement around the dialogue table.”LBCI television said FPM's representative MP Ibrahim Kanaan left the session “when the issue of the promotions settlement was raised.”“The settlement proposal has collapsed and (al-Mustaqbal bloc chief MP Fouad) Saniora and (Kataeb Party chief MP Sami) Gemayel are to blame,” LBCI quoted FPM sources as saying. Quoting ministerial sources, the TV network said “the cabinet will not convene anytime soon and the government's situation is very difficult.”Wednesday's talks tackled the presidential crisis although Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun did not attend the dialogue session. On Tuesday, Aoun attended the morning session but skipped the evening one over what were described as “health reasons.” His presence is necessary because Speaker Nabih Berri, who is chairing the sessions, has warned that the all-party talks would collapse if officials boycotted them. Aoun was represented by Change and Reform MP Ibrahim Kanaan in Wednesday's dialogue whose morning and evening sessions focused on the characteristics of the next president although officials have expressed pessimism on their ability to reach an agreement on the presidential crisis. The country's top Christian post has been vacant since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has paralyzed the parliament and sparked differences among the rival parties represented in Prime Minister Tammam Salam's government. Among the controversial issues are the cabinet's decision-making mechanism and the promotion of military officers.The rival leaders held on Tuesday backstage talks on the promotions were expected to do the same on Wednesday. Aoun wants to resolve the issue before his son-in-law Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz retires on October 15.The Change and Reform leader is hoping that Roukoz' promotion would keep him in the military and make him eligible to lead the institution.

Rivals Discuss Characteristics of Next President
Naharnet/October 07/15/Lebanon's rival leaders met again on Wednesday to hold talks on the presidential crisis although Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun did not attend the national dialogue session.On Tuesday, Aoun attended the morning session but skipped the evening one over what were described as “health reasons.”His presence is necessary because Speaker Nabih Berri, who is chairing the sessions, has warned that the all-party talks would collapse if officials boycotted them. Aoun was represented by Change and Reform MP Ibrahim Kanaan in Wednesday's dialogue whose morning and evening sessions are expected to focus on the characteristics of the next president although officials have expressed pessimism on their ability to reach an agreement on the crisis. The country's top Christian post has been vacant since President Michel Suleiman's six-year term ended in May last year. The Baabda Palace vacuum has caused parliament's paralysis and sparked differences among the rival parties represented in Prime Minister Tammam Salam's government. Among the controversial issues are the cabinet's decision-making mechanism and the promotion of military officers.
The rival leaders held on Tuesday backstage talks on the promotions and are expected to do the same on Wednesday. Aoun wants to resolve the issue before his son-in-law Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz retires on October 15. The Change and Reform leader is hoping that Roukoz' promotion would keep him in the military and make him eligible to lead the institution.

Hariri Accuses Nasrallah of 'Reversing Facts, Ingratitude' over Anti-Saudi Remarks
Naharnet/October 07/15/Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri hit back Wednesday at Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah over recent anti-Saudi remarks, accusing him of “reversing the facts” and “ingratitude.”“The remarks attributed to Hizbullah's secretary-general on Saudi Arabia's role in the July War are the peak of reversing the facts and ingratitude,” Hariri tweeted. Accusing Nasrallah of waging a campaign of “sectarian and political incitement,” the former premier said Hizbullah chief's “claim that Saudi Arabia is to blame for the killing in our region is both laughable and lamentable as well as ridiculous.” In remarks attributed to him in several local dailies on Wednesday, Nasrallah was quoted as telling a group of religious orators that “Saudi Arabia is to blame for the killing in our region and it was responsible for killing us during the July War” with Israel in 2006. He also accused Riyadh of “murdering the Yemeni people” and financing wars in Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Hariri snapped back on Wednesday, saying Nasrallah was trying to “justify his involvement in the bloody battlefields in Syria by launching accusations against others.”The ex-PM also asked Nasrallah about “the blood of hundreds of Lebanese youths that he sent to the inferno of war in Syria” and “the blood of thousands of Syrians that he killed together with (Syrian President) Bashar Assad and Daesh (Islamic State group).”
“Being Iran's political and religious agent in Lebanon does not give you an authorization to harm the interests of the Lebanese,” Hariri added.

Indictment Demands Death Penalty for George al-Rif's Killer
Naharnet/October 07/15/A Beirut judge issued on Wednesday an indictment demanding the death penalty against the murderer of George al-Rif, reported the National News Agency. It said that Judge Charbel Rizk made the indictment against detainee Tariq Yatim for stabbing Rif in July. His companion, detainee Lina Haidar was released from custody after “she served the legal amount of time in jail.”The case was referred to the Beirut criminal court for trial. In July, Yatim stabbed Rif in broad daylight over a traffic dispute. Identified by the media as a bodyguard of SGBL Bank chairman Antoun Sehnaoui, Yatim, has a history of violent attacks and a long criminal record, media reports said. He was among the group that beat up a valet parking attendant in 2009 outside the Sofitel Le Gabriel Beirut Hotel in Ashrafieh . In 2012, he was involved in an incident at the Zahrat el-Ihsan School in Ashrafieh, where Yatim and his associates beat up sports instructor Elie Farah and ripped off his ear after he did not allow a schoolgirl not donning sportswear from taking part in his class.

Report: Rising Optimism on Military Promotions
Naharnet/October 07/15/There was growing optimism on Wednesday on the controversial issue of military promotions amid efforts exerted by top officials to avert a showdown among rivals next week. As Safir daily quoted sources as saying that the cabinet could convene on Thursday, a sign that the efforts aimed at resolving the promotions crisis have made progress. Speaker Nabih Berri discussed the issue with Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun ahead of the national dialogue session on Tuesday. Reports that a deal struck among top officials last week included the appointment of an Internal Security Forces chief has infuriated Aoun. Despite efforts exerted by several officials to appease him by denying such reports, the cabinet has not yet met to approve the promotion of three senior army officers, among them Commando Regiment chief Brig. Gen. Chamel Roukoz, to the rank of major general. Roukoz is the son-in-law of Aoun who wants to keep him in the military institution so that he reaches the post of the army leadership. The promotion of the officer, who is set to retire on October 15, is rejected by several factions represented in the cabinet, including Defense Minister Samir Moqbel who is rejecting to sign any such decree under the request of former President Michel Suleiman. Despite the optimism that the cabinet could convene to settle the issue, highly informed sources told As Safir that the “race against time has reached a sensitive stage.” Al-Mustaqbal movement leader ex-PM Saad Hariri or the Saudi leadership should mediate to convince Suleiman to facilitate the approval of such a decree, they said.The sources warned that the government could collapse if the promotions do not take place before Roukoz' retirement.

Heavy Arms' Fired at Baalbek over Sunday Deadly Shooting
Naharnet/October 07/15/Unknown gunmen fired heavy- and medium-caliber weapons Tuesday from the Ras al-Ain area towards Baalbek in connection with Sunday's deadly shooting in the northeastern city, state-run National News Agency reported. The shelling was targeted at “the house of the father of Nader Yaghi,” where the latter's funeral was being held after he was killed in Sunday's incident. “Lebanese army troops intervened immediately and started pursuing the shooters,” NNA said. Yaghi and Hussein Tlais were shot dead Sunday as a personal dispute escalated into gunfire in a Baalbek market. “As Tlais was leaving al-Jana jewelery store which he owns in Baalbek's Serail Street, he was shot at the hands of A. N. Z.,” NNA said on Sunday. Yaghi was “passing in the area” at the time of the shooting, the agency added.

Shehayyeb and Safa Discuss 'Safe' Landfill Location in Bekaa
Naharnet/October 07/15/A meeting was reportedly held on Tuesday between Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb and Hizbullah's top security official Wafiq Safa to collaborate on finding a landfill location in Bekaa in light of the aggravating trash management crisis. The meeting between the two men was meant to find a “security and environmentally safe” location for a sanitary landfill in Bekaa, reports said. Shehayyeb's waste crisis plan has received momentum from the interlocutors at the national dialogue meeting a day earlier, where all parties have unanimously agreed to provide support which prompted PM Tammam Salam to wonder about the identity and the forces driving some parties to reject the plan, the reports added. Efforts to complete Akkar's Srar landfill are ongoing as part of Shehayyeb's plan, and Interior Minister Nouhad al-Mashnouq has received on Tuesday a delegation of mayors and municipalities of Akkar who approved the creation of the landfill. Implementing Shehayyeb's trash plan will start when a decision on creating a landfill in Bekaa is finalized completing a balanced chain to dump Beirut's waste in Naameh, Srar as well. The minister's proposal calls for the reopening of the Naameh landfill whose closure on July 17 sparked the country's unprecedented garbage crisis. It also envisions converting two existing dumps, in Srar and al-Masnaa, into sanitary landfills capable of receiving trash for more than a year. However the location in east Lebanon's Masnaa area was scrapped after a study showed it would contaminate the groundwater. After he announced his plan last month, the civil society and local residents of Akkar, Naameh, Majdal Anjar, and Bourj Hammoud protested against the step. Experts have urged the government to devise a comprehensive waste management solution that would include more recycling and composting to reduce the amount of trash going into landfills. Environmentalists fear the crisis could soon degenerate to the point where garbage as well as sewage will simply overflow into the sea from riverbeds as winter rains return.

Nasrallah Says No Prospect of Solution in Lebanon
Naharnet/October 07/15/Hizbullah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has accused Saudi Arabia of killing the Lebanese during the Israeli aggression on Lebanon in 2006 and expressed pessimism on the political situation of the country. Riyadh “killed us in the 2006 July war,” and is “responsible for all the killing in the region,” Nasrallah said. “Since its establishment, the role of Saudi Arabia and Israel has been to serve the U.S. interests in the region,” he stated. “There is no prospect of a solution in the country because everyone is awaiting the situation in the region to make his choices,” said Nasrallah. He stressed that Hizbullah and its allies are holding onto their demand for the implementation of an electoral law based on proportionality and which leads to the right representation. Differences between the March 8 and 14 alliances have stopped the parliamentary elections from taking place. Lawmakers extended their own terms last November after they failed to agree on an elections draft-law. Nasrallah said March 14, mainly al-Mustaqbal movement, is rejecting a law based on proportionality because in the last elections it lost 35 percent of the support of its electorates. The Hizbullah secretary-general also accused Riyadh of “trying to strike the axis of resistance all the way from Iran, to Russia and Venezuela by decreasing oil prices.”Saudi Arabia “is running the Islamic State group and al-Qaida in Yemen although these terrorists will pose a danger on it later,” said Nasrallah. Since March, Saudi Arabia has been leading a coalition of Sunni Arab countries battling the Iran-backed Huthi rebels who seized the capital Sanaa last year before moving south to take more territory. In his remarks, which were published in al-Akhbar daily on Wednesday, Nasrallah held Riyadh responsible for the death of pilgrims during the Hajj because of its “bad administration and because it hasn't learned of its past mistakes.”He accused it of intentionally not helping the victims of the September 24 stampede. Iran has also accused Saudi Arabia of incompetence in its handling of safety at the hajj, further souring relations already strained by the civil war in Syria and conflict in Yemen.The kingdom says 769 pilgrims died in the tragedy, but tolls provided by foreign officials and media from 24 countries add up to well over 1,000.

Hollande Did Not Suggest Assad-Free Syrian Army Alliance
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/French President Francois Hollande did not suggest forming an alliance between Syrian President Bashar Assad's forces and the moderate opposition Free Syrian Army, an aide said Wednesday, contradicting comments by Russian leader Vladimir Putin. "The president spoke of the necessary presence of the Syrian opposition around a future negotiating table. The rest is not a French idea," a member of Hollande's entourage told reporters during a visit to Strasbourg. Putin said earlier that Hollande had suggested "it might be possible to at least try to unite the efforts" of Assad's forces and the Free Syrian Army against the Islamic State group. The Kremlin leader said in televised remarks that his French counterpart made the proposal in Paris on Friday during a summit to boost the peace process in Ukraine also attended by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Ukrainian President Petro Porochenko. On Friday, Hollande said he had spoken with Putin about the need for a political solution enabling the government and opposition to form a consensus government and expressed the belief that Assad should eventually step down. France has often called for the moderate Syrian opposition to join future negotiations, particularly within the context of agreements drawn up in Geneva on setting up a political transition.

MSF Demands International Probe into Kunduz Air Strike
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Medical charity MSF Wednesday demanded an international probe into a deadly U.S. air strike on an Afghan hospital, after reports said NATO's top regional commander thought American forces broke their own rules of engagement. Three separate investigations -- by the U.S. military, NATO and Afghan officials -- are currently under way into Saturday's catastrophic strike in the northern Afghan city of Kunduz. But the charity, which condemned the attack as a war crime, stressed the need for an international inquiry, saying the bombing raid that killed 22 people was in contravention of the Geneva Conventions. "We cannot rely on an internal military investigation," Doctors Without Borders (MSF) chief Joanne Liu told reporters in Geneva, insisting that an "international humanitarian fact-finding commission" should probe the bombing. "This was not just an attack on our hospital, it was an attack on the Geneva Conventions. This cannot be tolerated," Liu said.Saturday's raid sparked international outrage, fueled by claims that patients had burned to death as they lay in their beds. Liu's remarks come a day after General John Campbell, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said the "hospital was mistakenly struck" when Afghan officials called for the raid. But MSF brushed aside that explanation, saying "a mistake is not answer for us" and insisting on knowing "the facts, the intention, the criteria" behind the more than hour-long raid. Campbell's admission was the latest in a series of shifting explanations the Americans have offered for the strike, which have ranged from dubbing the bombing "collateral damage" to saying it was carried out to protect U.S. troops. International aid groups, the United Nations and a growing tide of global revulsion have added to the pressure on Washington to come clean over the strike, which came days after the Taliban overran Kunduz. The New York Times on Tuesday, citing officials close to Campbell, said U.S. special forces in Kunduz were unable to verify whether the hospital was a legitimate target before the bombs were dropped. "Obviously, the investigation is still under way, but Campbell's thinking now is that the Americans on the ground did not follow the rules of engagement fully," the report quoted one of those officials as saying. But the official stressed that no final conclusions had been reached and a formal inquiry could yield a different conclusion. Under U.S. rules of engagement, air strikes are called in to eliminate insurgents, protect American troops and assist Afghans who request air support. But the U.S. special forces on the ground most likely did not ensure the required strike met any of those criteria, Campbell said in private discussions with his colleagues, according to the report. In testimony to the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, Campbell stressed that while it was the Afghans who called for the strike, ultimately the decision to launch rested with Americans. He said U.S. officials were communicating with MSF to get "all sides of the story".The remarks came as Campbell urged Washington to consider boosting its post-2016 military presence to repel a Taliban upsurge and stabilize a "tenuous security situation" in the war-ravaged nation. The White House is reviewing whether to press ahead with plans for the final exit of U.S. troops by late 2016, the end of Barack Obama's presidency, and leave an embassy-based force of about 1,000 in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is at "a decisive point" given the surge in violence, Campbell said, noting the growing presence of Islamic State and Al-Qaida fighters even while praising Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as a strong and willing U.S. partner. U.S. forces in Afghanistan currently stand at about 9,800. Campbell said Obama has provided him with "flexibility" to slow the drawdown.

Netanyahu curtails German trip to deal with worsening Palestinian terror crisis
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 7, 2015/After the Israeli cabinet launched measures Tuesday, Oct. 6, for “strengthening anti-terror defense” – such as cameras in the sky - and officials labored to spread word that the surge of Palestinian violence of the past week was beginning to ebb, Israel was hit that night from offside by a vicious pro-Palestinian upheaval in the Tel Aviv suburb of Jaffa. Hundreds of Israeli Arabs swarmed onto the streets to hurl rocks and burning containers at police, passing buses and Jews on the street. Six police officers were injured. Fired up by the radical Israeli Northern Muslim Movement, the rioters brandished Palestinian flags and yelled “Allah is Great!” and “With our blood we shall redeem Al Aqsa!”The Army Radio Station studio was besieged for five hours. At length, the police announced the disturbance had been brought to an end by negotiations with Arab community leaders in Jaffa. That strategy was part and parcel of the efforts made by IDF officers to bring an end to the surge of Palestinian violence besetting Jerusalem and the West Bank through revived negotiations with Palestinian security chiefs and soothing rhetoric poured out for the public by government and military officials. But the gap between that rhetoric and the unruly situation on the ground was impossible to bridge. The rocks and firebombs kept on flying – even after three killer-terrorists' homes were demolished in Jerusalem Monday night. Here too, the measure failed to impress as a deterrent because the punishment was meted out for terrorist crimes committed in 2014 and were therefore a year old – evidence of Israeli’s extremely slow response to murderous terror. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu finds himself cornered by two conflicting crises. While facing popular demands to quell Palestinian violence that caused four Israeli deaths and 30 people injured during the High Festivals, he is confronted with a mutiny within the government coalition and his own Likud party. At least half a dozen ministers angrily reject the line taken by the prime minister and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon for the past year - that the terror crisis must be handled “calmly and responsibly” - as nothing but softness on Palestinian terror. Netanyahu has shot back by threatening to break up the government, which is less than a year old – either by inviting the opposition parties to join a new national unity government or calling a snap election.
This threat is fairly hollow. Replacing the mutinous ministers with members of the Labor opposition is a non-starter since its leader Yitzhak Herzog scarcely controls his own party. A coalition with Yair Lapid’s Future party and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beitenu would be harder to control than the present lineup. Netanyahu finds himself in this corner because he is handling the two crises by political means as part of the same problem. This tactic is taken by Palestinian extremist leaders as a sign of Israeli weakness and encourages them to pour more fuel on the fire of anti-Israel violence. Ineffective measures, such as the cameras in the sky, which never worked on the 443 highway to Jerusalem, for instance, make things worse. The trickle of rockets from Gaza contradicts Ya’alon’s pledge to stop it. A proactive, creative hand against the escalating Palestinian violence would gain the support of all the ministers and ease the popular sense of pervasive insecurity.

Israel President Warns against Religious Incitement at Holy Site
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Wednesday warned against religious incitement at a flashpoint Jerusalem holy site, saying his country and Palestinians were "sitting on a volcano."Rivlin, whose post is mainly ceremonial, made the comments as unrest has spread in recent days, particularly in east Jerusalem and the West Bank. Clashes have also rocked the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, which is holy to both Muslims and Jews, who refer to it as the Temple Mount. Israeli police have raided the site and fired tear gas and stun grenades at masked youths throwing stones and firebombs while barricading themselves inside the mosque itself. Israeli officials have accused radical Muslim groups of inciting violence at the site. "Those who wish to turn the tragedy between us, Palestinians and Israel... into a religious war have blood on their hands," Rivlin told journalists. He criticized a statement from Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas, who said last month that Palestinians will not allow Al-Aqsa to be spoiled by "filthy feet". Palestinian officials later said he was referring to security forces who entered the mosque to shut the doors on rioters. Rivlin also made reference to the radical northern branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel and others accused of orchestrating some of the protests at the site. "We are sitting on a volcano," he said. The Al-Aqsa compound is the third-holiest site in Islam and the most sacred in Judaism. It is located in east Jerusalem, annexed by Israel in 1967 in a move never recognized by the international community. Muslims fear Israel will seek to change rules governing the site, which allow Jews to visit but not pray to avoid provoking tensions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said repeatedly he is committed to the status quo there, and Rivlin said the same on Wednesday. Palestinians however remain deeply suspicious, with efforts by a hardline Jewish minority to build a new temple there helping stoke such concerns. An increase in visits by Jews in recent weeks over a series of Jewish holidays have added to tensions.

Arab Coalition Faces New IS Foe in Yemen Conflict
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/An unprecedented attack on Yemen's government claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group has raised a fresh challenge for the Saudi-led coalition backing the embattled president, analysts say. IS bombings on Tuesday hit the government's temporary headquarters in the southern city of Aden and military installations used by the coalition which is fighting Shiite Huthi rebels, killing more than 15 people. The IS, which controls swathes of Syria and northern Iraq, has previously carried out several deadly attacks and suicide bombings against the Huthis.But it had not targeted forces loyal to President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi or Gulf troops deployed in Yemen as part of the coalition. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have contributed the bulk of forces to the campaign against the rebels, also both belong to a U.S.-led coalition bombing IS in Syria and Iraq. "Daesh is trying to expand its space in Yemen by apparently posing as an opponent of the coalition," said Jean-Pierre Filiu, an expert on contemporary Islam, using the Arabic acronym for IS. The spectacular attacks by IS allow its militants to "differentiate themselves once again from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula", following its deadly bombings of Shiite mosques in Sanaa, said Filiu, a professor at the School of International Affairs in Paris. The Soufan Group intelligence consultancy based in New York has said: "The ongoing war in Yemen has been a disaster for almost everyone involved, except the Islamic State ... "The war in Yemen is a perfect laboratory for a terror group seeking regional expansion like the Islamic State."Experts agree that the IS attacks further complicate the task facing the coalition, which despite seven months of air strikes and the deployment of thousands of troops on the ground has not managed to break the back of the rebels. The Huthi rebels and allied troops loyal to former president Ali Abdullah Saleh remain in control of northern Yemen and the capital Sanaa, which they overran in September 2014. The attacks are "likely to spark some debate within the coalition about the direction of policy," said Jane Kinninmont, deputy head of the Middle East program at London's Chatham House think-tank. They will also "place more emphasis on the need not just to confront the Huthi-Saleh alliance but to rebuild the Yemeni state", said Kinninmont, cautioning this was "easier said than done". Although IS is "new to Yemen," the conflict and the worsening humanitarian situation "create fertile ground for radicalisation", she said. The UAE, which lost four soldiers in Tuesday's attacks, blamed them on the Huthis and their allies, without any reference to IS. "In reality, these attacks were launched by tribal elements of IS, with old connections to the camp of Saleh," according to Mathieu Guidere, a professor and Middle East specialist at the University of Toulouse in France. His theory is that Saleh has "reactivated his old connections with those elements to divert the efforts of the coalition towards fighting terrorism".
"If the Saudis fall into this trap and change their priorities by targeting IS, the camp of Saleh and Huthis would win some respite."So far, the overall Saudi strategy remains unclear, said Neil Partrick from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Saudi Arabia’s lack of clear goals in Yemen is worsening the security vacuum and potentially undermining the kingdom's national security," he said. The coalition launched its air war in late March as the rebels advanced on Aden, where Hadi had taken refuge after escaping house arrest in Sanaa. He fled that month to Riyadh and returned to Aden in September after loyalists backed by coalition forces retook the port city and four other southern provinces. The United Nations says around 5,000 people have been killed and 25,000 wounded, many of them civilians, in Yemen's conflict since March.

Russia Warships Fire Cruise Missiles to Back Syrian Army Offensive
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Russian warships joined in strikes in Syria with a volley of cruise missile attacks Wednesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged his air force would back a ground offensive by government forces. Ships from the Caspian Sea fleet launched 26 cruise missile strikes against 11 targets, Moscow said. The Russian president also stressed the need for cooperation with a U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State jihadists, saying that without cooperation from the U.S., Turkey and Saudi Arabia the intervention was unlikely to work. Russian efforts "will be synchronized with the actions of the Syrian army on the ground and the actions of our air force will effectively support the offensive operation of the Syrian army," Putin said at a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Russian forces have struck 112 targets in war-torn Syria since last week launching a bombing campaign that Moscow says is targeting the IS group, Shoigu told Putin in the televised briefing. "Strikes have hit 112 targets from September 30 until today," Shoigu said. "The intensity of the strikes is increasing." In a sign that Russia was ramping up its involvement, Shoigu said that four Russian warships had hit sites in Syria on Wednesday with cruise missiles. "In addition to the air force, four warships of the Caspian flotilla have been involved," Shoigu said, adding that the warships had carried out 26 cruise missile strikes against 11 targets. Russia began air strikes in Syria a week ago following a request by long-standing ally President Bashar Assad. Moscow insists it is hitting IS targets but the U.S. and its allies fear that Moscow is aiming to bolster Assad's regime. Putin also said that French leader Francois Hollande had suggested a possible plan to get government forces to combine efforts with the Western-backed Free Syrian Army, the main moderate opposition group fighting the Damascus regime. A Hollande aide later denied he had said any such thing. "The president spoke of the necessary presence of the Syrian opposition around a future negotiating table. The rest is not a French idea," he told reporters in Strasbourg. "During my last visit to Paris, French President Hollande expressed an interesting idea according to which in his opinion it might be possible to at least to try to unite the efforts of the government troops of president Assad's army and the so-called Free Syrian Army," Putin said. Putin met with Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine in Paris last Friday.

Iraq Forces Retake Areas around Ramadi
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Iraqi forces have retaken several areas north and west of Ramadi as efforts to close in on the Anbar provincial capital seized by jihadists in May intensify, officials said Wednesday.An operation involving 2,000 troops backed by air strikes from the U.S.-led coalition led to the recapture of several neighborhoods from the Islamic State group. A brigadier general from the Anbar operations command said those included Zankura, Albu Jleib, Al-Adnaniyah and parts of Albu Risha and an area known as Kilometre 5. "The Iraqi security forces also took control of the main road west of Ramadi and they are now using it to support the forces positioned to liberate Ramadi," Adhal Fahdawi, a member of the provincial council, told Agence France Presse.According to the U.S.-led coalition's daily tally of air strikes in Iraq and Syria, a total of 27 strikes have been conducted in the Ramadi area since the start of October. "The coalition's air support has played a big part in this progress," Fahdawi said. "If operations continue at this pace, I expect the liberation of Ramadi to be possible by the end of the month." Ahmed al-Assadi, spokesman for the Hashed al-Shaabi paramilitary organisation also involved in the operation, even predicted it would happen "in the next few days". Iraqi officials, including Assadi and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, had said immediately after IS fighters blitzed the security forces out of Ramadi in mid-May that a reconquest would be a matter of days. The Iraqi forces' advance has been sluggish however, sparking mounting criticism of the U.S.-supported effort to train and equip Iraqi fighters in Anbar. Colonel Steve Warren, the Baghdad-based spokesman for the coalition, admitted last week that the Ramadi operation had essentially been on "pause" for some time. He said that the sheer amount of improvised explosive devices laid by IS around Ramadi had required extra training and added that U.S. advisers on the ground were now encouraging Iraqi generals to complete the task of retaking the city. "We are all urging them to begin with the utmost haste to finish this fight in Ramadi," he said. "It's a very important fight and it needs to be finished."

Turkey PM Says 'only Two' Russia Strikes aimed at IS
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu Wednesday said only two Russian air strikes in Syria had targeted Islamic State jihadists and warned that Ankara would not make any concessions about the security of its borders. His comments came after Russian warplanes twice violated the airspace of key NATO member Turkey in the last days. Davutoglu said only two out of 57 bombardments had targeted IS fighters with all the others targeting moderate rebels backed by Turkey and the United States. He said in televised remarks that the figures were based on military intelligence Turkey had received. If there's going to be a fight against Daesh, let's do it together," he said, using the Arabic name for the group. Davutoglu warned against any operation targeting civilians and the Syrian opposition which he said could lead to a new refugee influx. Russian aircraft also violated Turkish airspace on Saturday and on Sunday, prompting Ankara to summon the Russian envoy to the foreign ministry twice to protest the breach. Also, Turkish F-16 jets carrying out reconnaissance flights on the Syrian border were harassed and put on radar lock by unidentified MIG-29 planes in the last days. "We will not make any concessions in the context of our border and air space security," Davutoglu said. Davutoglu said Turkey's airspace was naturally NATO airspace, urging Russia to respect his country's border security while dismissing any tensions with its major trade partner. "We do not want any tensions with Russia but as I say, it is our most natural right to expect Russia to be careful about Turkey's airspace, borders and Turkey's interests in Syria," he added. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also warned Russia on Tuesday against losing Turkey's friendship, saying that Turkey cannot "remain patient" in the face of violations. NATO has extended support for Turkey, with its chief Jens Stoltenberg accusing Moscow of deliberately breaching Turkish airspace. The Russian ambassador "was invited" to the Turkish foreign ministry on Tuesday over the incursions, the Turkish foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. The envoy had already been summoned twice to hear Turkish protests over the Russian air incursions.Ankara said it was ready to meet with Russian military authorities to listen to what sort of measures would be taken to prevent further violations, the ministry said. Davutoglu also confirmed the meeting with the Russian ambassador, saying it came after divergences in information provided by the Russian authorities and intelligence on the ground over the incursions. "We are negotiating with the Russian side sincerely and friendly as two neighboring countries which respect each other, about how many minutes the violations lasted and under what circumstances," the premier said. "Military and diplomatic officials are negotiating," he said. The foreign ministry however denied reports from Russia the two sides had discussed creating a working group to prevent repeat incidents. Russia's defense ministry on Wednesday said it was continuing talks with Turkey over setting up a "mechanism" aimed at avoiding incidents in the airspace along the Syrian-Turkish border.

U.S.-Backed Syria Rebels Say Russia Raids Destroyed Arms Depots
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/October 07/15/Russian airstrikes in northern Syria have destroyed the arms depots of a U.S.-backed rebel faction and wounded several of its fighters, the group told AFP on Wednesday. "At 5:30 pm (1430 GMT) on Tuesday, our bases in the western parts of Aleppo province were targeted by Russian airplanes... which completely destroyed our warehouses," said Mustafa Halabi, a spokesman from the Suqur al-Jabal group. "They were storing arms, ammunition and other equipment," he said. "There are several injuries that range from light to moderate," Halabi told AFP via internet from Syria. He said that three air strikes carried out by Russian warplanes destroyed the "main warehouses used by the brigades". Russia began conducting air strikes in Syria a week ago and has insisted it is only targeting the Islamic State jihadist group and other "terrorist" factions. But moderate and Islamist rebels and their international backers accuse Moscow of targeting a range of armed opponents of the regime, not just jihadists. Fighters from Suqur al-Jabal (Falcons of the Mountain) have received training and equipment as part of a $500-million U.S. prograe to build up a force to combat IS in Syria. On October 1, the group accused Russia of targeting its bases in Idlib province with "more than 10 missiles". U.S. Senator John McCain also said last week that Russia had attacked a separate group trained by the Central Intelligence Agency.

Palestinian woman shot in Occupied Jerusalem stabbing attack
By Staff Writer | Al Arabiya News/Wednesday, 7 October 2015/An 18-year-old Palestinian woman stabbed an Israeli near a contested shrine in Jerusalem on Wednesday and was then shot and wounded by the injured man, Israeli police said, the third knife attack in the city in less than a week.
Police said the attacker struck in an alleyway near the Western Wall, a Jewish prayer site abutting the al-Aqsa mosque complex. Israeli police spokeswoman Luba Samri said the 35-year-old victim was armed and managed to draw his gun when she stabbed him in the back. Also on Wednesday, Israeli police shot dead an Arab man in central Israel after he allegedly wounded a soldier with a knife and took his weapon, authorities said. The soldier suffered a wound to the hand and was robbed of his gun in Kiryat Gat, while the alleged attacker hid in a building, where he was shot dead by police, the military and police said. As a result of recent clashes and attacks, Israeli border police have shut the gates to the Old City as of Wednesday noon, according to Al Arabiya News Channel's correspondent on the ground. West Bank violence. In a separate incident, Jewish settlers shot and seriously wounded a Palestinian in the occupied West Bank early on Wednesday, the Red Crescent and witnesses said. The 18-year-old was in intensive care but in a stable condition after the shooting east of Bethlehem, a medic told AFP. Israeli police confirmed that a Palestinian had been wounded when shots were fired in response to stone throwing but did not say who fired them. The shooting happened on a section of road linking two Jewish settlements that passes close to the Palestinian town of Beit Sahir and has been the scene of frequent clashes between settlers and Palestinians.[With AFP]

How Iranian general plotted out Syrian assault in Moscow
By Reuters | Beirut/Wednesday, 7 October 2015/At a meeting in Moscow in July, a top Iranian general unfurled a map of Syria to explain to his Russian hosts how a series of defeats for President Bashar al-Assad could be turned into victory - with Russia’s help. Major General Qassem Soleimani’s visit to Moscow was the first step in planning for a Russian military intervention that has reshaped the Syrian war and forged a new Iranian-Russian alliance in support of Assad. As Russian warplanes bomb rebels from above, the arrival of Iranian special forces for ground operations underscores several months of planning between Assad’s two most important allies, driven by panic at rapid insurgent gains. Soleimani is the commander of the Quds Force, the elite extra-territorial special forces arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, and reports directly to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Senior regional sources say he has already been overseeing ground operations against insurgents in Syria and is now at the heart of planning for the new Russian- and Iranian-backed offensive. That expands his regional role as the battlefield commander who has also steered the fight in neighbouring Iraq by Iranian-backed Shiite militia against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). His Moscow meeting outlined the deteriorating situation in Syria, where rebel advances towards the coast were posing a danger to the heartland of Assad’s Alawite sect, where Russia maintains its only Mediterranean naval base in Tartous. “Soleimani put the map of Syria on the table. The Russians were very alarmed, and felt matters were in steep decline and that there were real dangers to the regime. The Iranians assured them there is still the possibility to reclaim the initiative,” a senior regional official said. “At that time, Soleimani played a role in assuring them that we haven’t lost all the cards.”
“Send Soleimani”
Three senior officials in the region say Soleimani’s July trip was preceded by high-level Russian-Iranian contacts that produced political agreement on the need to pump in new support for Assad as his losses accelerated. Their accounts suggest planning for the intervention began to germinate several months earlier. It means Tehran and Moscow had been discussing ways to prop up Assad by force even as Western officials were describing what they believed was new flexibility in Moscow’s stance on his future. Before the latest moves, Iran had aided Assad militarily by mobilising Shi’ite militias to fight alongside the Syrian army, and dispatching Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps officers as advisors. A number of them have been killed. Russia, an ally of Damascus since the Cold War, had supplied weapons to the Syrian army and shielded Damascus diplomatically from Western attempts to sanction Assad at the United Nations. Their support did not prevent rebels - some of them backed by Assad’s regional foes - from reducing Assad’s control of Syria to around one fifth of its territory in a four-year-long war estimated to have killed 250,000 people. The decision for a joint Iranian-Russian military effort in Syria was taken at a meeting between Russia’s foreign minister and Khamenei a few months ago, said a senior official of a country in the region, involved in security matters. “Soleimani, assigned by Khamenei to run the Iranian side of the operation, travelled to Moscow to discuss details. And he also travelled to Syria several times since then,” the official said. The Russian government says its Syria deployment came as the result of a formal request from Assad, who himself laid out the problems facing the Syrian military in stark terms in July, saying it faced a manpower problem. Khamenei also sent a senior envoy to Moscow to meet President Vladimir Putin, another senior regional official said. “Putin told him ‘Okay we will intervene. Send Qassem Soleimani’. He went to explain the map of the theatre.”
Resident in Damascus
Russian warplanes, deployed at an airfield in Latakia, began mounting air strikes against rebels in Syria last week. Moscow says it is targeting Islamic State, but many of Russia’s air strikes have hit other insurgents, including groups backed by Assad’s foreign enemies, notably in the northwest where rebels seized strategically important towns including Jisr al-Shughour earlier this year. In the biggest deployment of Iranian forces yet, sources told Reuters last week that hundreds of troops have arrived since late September to take part in a major ground offensive planned in the west and northwest.
Around 3,000 fighters from the Iranian-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah have also mobilised for the battle, along with Syrian army troops, said one of the senior regional sources. The military intervention in Syria is set out in an agreement between Moscow and Tehran that says Russian air strikes will support ground operations by Iranian, Syrian and Lebanese Hezbollah forces, said one of the senior regional sources. The agreement also included the provision of more sophisticated Russian weapons to the Syrian army, and the establishment of joint operations rooms that would bring those allies together, along with the government of Iraq, which is allied both to Iran and the United States. One of the operations rooms is in Damascus and another is in Baghdad. “Soleimani is almost resident in Damascus, or let’s say he goes there a lot and you can find him between meetings with President Assad and visits to the theatre of operations like any other soldier,” said one of the senior regional officials. Syria’s foreign minister said on Monday that the Russian air strikes had been planned for months.

Hollande: Failure in Syria risks ‘total war’ for region
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News/Wednesday, 7 October 2015/Failure to act in Syria risks stoking a “total war” in the Middle East, French President Francois Hollande said in a landmark speech to the European Parliament alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel. “What happens in Syria concerns Europe, what happens there will determine the balance of the whole region for a long time,” Hollande told European lawmakers in Strasbourg. “If we leave these religious clashes between Sunnis and Shiites, they will grow. Don’t think we will be sheltered, this will be a total war.”Hollande, whose country has launched air strikes against ISIS in Syria, appeared to criticize Russia for its air attacks in support of President Bashar al-Assa’'s regime.“We have to construct in Syria, with all those who can contribute, a political future which gives the Syrian people an alternative to Bashar or Daesh,” Hollande said, using another name for ISIS. Hollande and Merkel were giving the first joint speech to the European Parliament by the leaders of France and Germany since Francois Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl in 1989. FSA, Assad army alliance ‘not French idea’In a related story, Hollande did not suggest forming an alliance between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces and the moderate opposition Free Syrian Army, an aide said Wednesday, contradicting comments by Russian leader Vladimir Putin. “The president spoke of the necessary presence of the Syrian opposition around a future negotiating table. The rest is not a French idea,” a member of Hollande’s entourage told reporters in Strasbourg. The aide dismissing the news came after Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a joint television appearance on Wednesday that Hollande had voiced the idea of uniting forces loyal to Assad and the so-called Free Syrian Army to fight ISIS.
France has repeatedly said that once a political transition has occurred and Assad has gone, government troops and moderate rebels would need to join forces to defeat ISIS.(With AFP and Reuters)

Kurds: ISIS used mustard agent in Iraq
By Isabel Coles and Babak Dehghanpisheh, Reuters/Wednesday, 7 October 2015/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) fighters fired mortar rounds containing mustard agent at Kurdish peshmerga fighters in northern Iraq during clashes in August, the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs said on Wednesday. Blood samples taken from the approximately 35 Kurdish fighters who were exposed in the attack southwest of the regional capital Erbil, along with an examination of injuries, showed "signatures of sulfur mustard", the body which oversees the Kurdish armed forces in northern Iraq said in a statement.

Inciting a clash with Russia
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Undoubtedly, most people in Saudi Arabia and the wider Arab world are angry at the Russian intervention in Syria, as it comes in the context of supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which has committed the most atrocious massacres in the history of the region. Despite that, urging young men to join the war under the pretext of jihad to fight the Russian invaders is a dangerous development that violates state laws. These men who will fight the Russians will later fight their own countries, governments and families. Who will be held responsible when security authorities capture a young man trying to sneak back into his country? Will it be the man who incited him, or the deceived young man himself? Unfortunately, those imprisoned today are the ones who were deceived, while those who incited them and misled them sleep soundly. Calling for murder is considered a dangerous act as per all systems and sets of rules. Therefore, due to the fact that it falls within the context of collective work, it is more than an individual opinion.
History repeating
The call to fight in Syria reminds us of the history of jihad in Afghanistan, which changed ideology in Saudi Arabia for the worse. Thousands of young men left Saudi Arabia to fight on behalf of the Americans. The war ended with the establishment of a new era of chaos as terror groups emerged. The world still suffers from these groups. We are all angry at Russian intervention in Syria. Despite that, we must not let history repeat itself in the form of calls for jihad. Saudi authorities continue to pursue Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda cells, which are extensions of jihad in the Afghan war. They planted the ideology of political extremism and the concept of using power outside the state’s rule to achieve change. We are all angry at Russian intervention in Syria, because it aims to support the Assad regime, Iran and its militias in this unjust war against people under the false pretext of a war on terrorism. Despite that, we must not let history repeat itself in the form of calls for jihad against the Soviets in Afghanistan, then against the Americans in Iraq, then Assad in Syria, and now the Russians in Syria.
Repercussions
The only party that has the right to call for war is the state itself. As such, calls for jihad challenge the legitimacy of state institutions, raise hostility against Saudi Arabia, and violate international decisions against inciting terrorism. Why do these people continue to incite others despite being warned against and prohibited from doing so? We used to think they were ignorant, but they have continuously incited until they succeeded in turning international public opinion against Saudi Arabia and Muslims in general. The damage is grave because this incitement serves hideous organizations such as ISIS, which have committed crimes in the name of Islam and Muslims, and harmed the Syrians and their cause. When the Syrian regime began committing its massacres against its own people in mid-2011, its wish was that extremists join the opposition so the world believes its allegations that it is fighting terrorists. Back then, most Syrians revolting against the regime were citizens defending their homes and lives, and foreign fighters had not joined them yet. In order to accuse the opposition of extremism, the Assad regime released detainees affiliated with terror groups, and justified its expanded murder operations by claiming that opposition forces were from Al-Qaeda. Its wish came true, as those calling for jihad got involved and began to send young men to Syria.
Wider war
These young men do not believe in any of the Syrian revolution’s principles. Their only concern is to establish an extremist religious state where there is no place for most Syrians. The features of this state are as brutal as the Assad regime. Assad and Iran want the battle to expand, and a clash to occur between Russia and the Gulf. As such, those inciting people in the Gulf to fight the Russians in Syria serve Tehran. Assad and Iran also want the battle to expand, and a clash to occur between Russia and the Gulf. As such, those inciting people in the Gulf to fight the Russians in Syria serve Tehran. As usual in every crisis, they do this either out of ignorance or their desire to widen the clash and undermine the society in which they live. As for the Russians in Syria, they will lose regardless of calls for jihad, as before their arrival in Syria, Hezbollah had gone there and failed, then the Iranians joined in and also failed. Now the Russians are trying to restore a system on the verge of collapse.

Children’s education: the silent victim of Mideast war
Yossi Mekelberg/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Wars hit the most vulnerable in society the hardest, and the conflicts of the Middle East and North Africa are no exception to this rule. Of particular concern is the impact of ongoing conflict in the region on youth, especially young children. In the last few years many thousands of young people have been killed, severely injured, or forced out of their homes in places like Syria, Iraq, Gaza, Yemen and Sudan. Others had to face traumatic realities of losing loved ones or becoming refugees in their formative years, which are so crucial for their physical and psychological development. Education is tragically one of these aspects of life that takes secondary priority at times of conflict. In time of war the immediate physical survival takes ultimate precedence over long term considerations. Education is tragically one of these aspects of life that takes secondary priority at times of conflict. Consequently the future of millions of young people is compromised for the rest of their lives and this results in unmeasurable harm to their societies.
Impact of war
A recent report by United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), sheds light on the impact of wars in the MENA region and depriving children of adequate schooling. According to the report, 13 million children are not currently attending school in countries in the region affected by armed conflicts.
In Gaza many schools are also used as shelters, following the destruction of many homes in the 2014 conflict with Israel. The report depicts an extremely grim situation of “8850 schools in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya that can no longer be used because they have been damaged destroyed, are sheltering displaced families or are occupied by parties to the conflicts.”In Gaza many schools are also used as shelters, following the destruction of many homes in the 2014 conflict with Israel. The Middle East and North Africa has a very young population. One third of people living there are under the age of 15, and another thirty percent are between the ages of 15 and 29. This large proportion of the population is the one that is most affected when access to education is blocked, or not up to acceptable standards. It makes it even worse considering that prior to the beginning of the Arab Spring, the region was heading towards the goal of universal education for both girls and boys.
Long term prospects
The impact of not attending school for these millions of children has a detrimental and immediate impact on their lives, and also on their long term prospects. As a consequence of the complete destruction of the world surrounding them, these young people need some source of stability and hope. Schools could and should have served this function, but not when they are under constant attack. In areas under ISIS control, for instance, the curriculum is being changed, while girls are forced to marry and stop their schooling. Many schools have lost their teachers, who were killed or fled in fear of their lives. Provisions for disabled school children are dwindling at a time when the horrors of war mean they are needed the most. This 13 million children, who could have received emotional support, time away from the daily misery and most importantly hope for a better future, find themselves wandering around in devastated cities and makeshift refugee camps. Their vulnerability makes them easy prey to those who want to exploit or radicalize them.
Schools perceived as a luxury
All evidence points to education as one of the key factors in advancing social mobility, improving employment, decreasing inequality in society and generally ensuring good citizenship. The most valuable capital that countries have is their human capital, and this asset is enhanced by education. However, when young children do not have the opportunity to develop literacy and numeracy skills, they are disadvantaged for the rest of their lives, and cannot contribute to the advancement of a more technologically savvy and innovative dynamic economy. Right now their families’ primary concern, and understandably so, is their physical survival; schools may almost be perceived as a luxury. Nevertheless, a generation of children that grows up outside schools, is a generation that is lost to society. As the report asserts, “In the midst of violence and instability, school is a place of learning and opportunity, a sanctuary for healing and health.” This is what these young people are missing. Worse, some of the schools are occupied or surrounded by armed forces, which makes it at many times a dangerous and a terrifying place for children. In countries such as Jordan, Lebanon or Turkey, the governments are making a genuine and generous effort to enable children to attend schools; however, language and cultural barriers are a real obstacle to success for these school-age children. In some places they face a ghastly combination of physical abuse, bullying and bad nutrition, all of which affect their academic performance. Since no one expects respite in the political strife in the region, it is paramount that the international community takes urgent measures to ensure that these children are back in the classroom. It is not only the responsibility of the countries in the region, but of the wider international community. It requires the creation of a safe environment for learning and the allocation of necessary resources. This can be done through cooperation with NGOs and international organisations that are familiar with the situation and present on the ground. They can assist in providing formal and informal education, in addition to training of teachers. This issue must be tackled with a sense of urgency and purpose, as many of these young people will lose the opportunity to become the accomplished individuals and citizens which they could be. This would not only result in a personal tragedy for them, but would also come back to haunt their societies, and beyond.

Syria: Russia’s Afghanistan 2.0?
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Russia’s airstrikes in Syria have dominated the news headlines. After Russian President Vladimir Putin’s moderate speech at the United Nations, in which he called for broad cooperation, hardly anyone could expect that the next day would mark the launch of one of the most controversial operations since the no-fly zone over Libya. The controversy lies in its coverage by the Russian side, the contradiction of Russian foreign policy and military doctrine, the goals declared, and the way the operation is being performed.
Cons
The coalition that Russia is forging - including Syria, Iraq, Iran and Hezbollah - will exacerbate the Syria crisis and regional sectarian tensions. The threat becomes even more dangerous when considering the ongoing Yemen crisis, and valid Saudi concerns over the growing power of Iran following the nuclear deal. This will tarnish the image of Russia in most of the Sunni Muslim world. The fact that Russia is forging its own coalition parallel to the U.S.-led one resolves the most difficult question of how to make rebel forces fight together against ISIS. Moscow’s perception of "terrorists” in Syria is too broad. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is not its only target. Most of the Russian airstrikes are against rebel forces, thus relieving the pressure on the Syrian army. This undermines the value of Russian declarations on Syria and on President Bashar al-Assad in particular, as the airstrikes look like an attempt to secure the regime on the ground. Moscow has hit odious forces such as Al-Nusra Front, but lumping all rebel forces together undermines Russia’s credibility and complicates the situation on the ground further. Another problem is the absence of a timeframe for the offensive and a concrete goal. Ambiguity does not contribute to the effective performance of the operation. Moscow’s aim in Syria, as described by its representative to the EU, is to “eliminate the terrorist threat to the region and to the world community.” As such, the operation could continue unsuccessfully for years, dragging Russia deeper into the conflict. Its economy is already weakened by Western sanctions and low oil prices. Furthermore, its offensive has made Russia a target for jihadists and other extremists. Their first attack is a matter of when, not if.
Pros
Russia has opened a Pandora’s box with unpredictable consequences. A positive outcome is possible. However, the risks are high and the gains not so obvious.
The fact that Russia is forging its own coalition parallel to the U.S.-led one resolves the most difficult question of how to make rebel and governmental forces fight together against ISIS. Also, Tehran-backed militias, or even direct Iranian involvement on the ground with Russian air cover, could be effective.
If Russia finally concentrates on ISIS positions, it could really contribute to the group’s destruction. To this end, cooperation with the international coalition is vital, at least on the level of data exchange and trust. Russia has opened a Pandora’s box with unpredictable consequences. A positive outcome is possible, and much depends on the international community’s approach and dialogue with Russia on the matter. However, the risks are high and the gains not so obvious. Syria could become Russia’s Afghanistan 2.0.

Russian Overflight of Turkey: More Than Meets the Eye?
James F. Jeffrey/WAshington Institute/October 07/15
The province that Putin's jets buzzed this weekend holds special demographic and historical significance, raising questions about the incident's potential significance as a warning to Ankara. Although modern military technology such as radar vectoring and GPS navigational aids make unintentional overflights of neighboring territory relatively rare, such incidents do occur in military operations. But what makes Russia's October 3 overflight of Turkish territory potentially worrisome is its location. According to an October 5 Turkish Foreign Ministry press release, the Russian aircraft flew over the Yayladagi/Hatay region. While that area is close to the Syrian border and not far from fighting between Assad regime and rebel forces, it has dramatic significance for other reasons. Hatay is populated in part by ethnic Arabs of the Alawite sect of Islam -- the same sect as Bashar al-Assad and most of his closest generals, advisors, and supporters. The province also has a convoluted history that could complicate Ankara's calculus about the Russian intervention. Hatay was known as Sanjak of Alexandretta until the early twentieth century, and its mixed population of Alawite and Sunni Arabs, Turks, Turkmens, Circassians, Armenians, Levantines, and Kurds was not part of Turkey as established by the post-World War I Treaty of Lausanne. Rather, the area was mandated to France along with Syria and Lebanon. Hatay enjoyed special status within the French mandate and the Syrian "state," with the Turkish community granted cultural and linguistic rights. The territory was later claimed by Turkey's first president, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and eventually became a "republic" in 1938 under joint French and Turkish tutelage. Soon thereafter, the Anglo-French-Turkish Treaty of 1939 established a mutual security pact between the three countries, and ceding Hatay to Turkey was seen as a quid pro quo for Ankara's accession to the pact. Although Turkey did not assist France and Britain in World War II -- due to a clause exempting it from any conflict that could lead to combat with the Soviet Union, which allied with Germany in 1939 -- it still kept Hatay.
Syria never officially acknowledged the loss of Hatay and its considerable Alawite community, however. Syrian maps still do not show Hatay as a part of Turkey (until recently, the regime maintained a similar cartographical attitude toward the entire country of Lebanon). While Damascus stopped emphasizing Hatay as its own territory during a thaw in relations a decade ago between Assad and then-prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, it did not officially recognize Turkey's sovereignty. And in previous years, Hatay was part of the complex of cold-war-like confrontations between Ankara and Damascus, which included Syrian support for the Kurdish PKK insurgent group and refuge for its leader, at least until Turkey threatened an invasion in the late 1990s. When asked about the Syrian threat to the province in the mid-1980s, Turkish president and military chief Kenan Evren answered in one word: "Gelsinler," or "Let them come." As Syria's president and the informal leader of the Alawite community, Assad obviously knows this entire story. But does Moscow? It is hard to believe that a country so obsessed with its past and its historical claims (Crimea being only one of many examples) would have missed this connection.
So can one conclude that the overflight was deliberate? A means of warning Turkey that if it does not behave on the Syrian issue, where it is deeply at odds with Russia and Assad, it might pay a high price one day? Perhaps. What one can say with more certainty is that a rational military organization, knowing the history, would have given special warnings to its pilots and radar controllers to not violate Hatay airspace, in part to avoid generating articles like this one suspecting the worst. At minimum, it seems unlikely that such warnings were given. More broadly, as Putin scrambles the deck with force in the Middle East, as he has done in Eastern Europe since 2008, the international community can no longer exclude any motivation for his actions.
**James Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at The Washington Institute and former U.S. ambassador to Turkey.

A royal solution to Libya’s chaos
Abdallah Schleifer/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
Over the past year Bernardino León, the U.N. Special Envoy to Libya, has been mediating between the internationally recognized Libyan government in Tobruk and the rival Islamist-dominated General National Congress (GNC) in Tripoli. The Libyan government fled to Tobruk when an alliance of militias known as Libya Dawn seized Tripoli and installed the GNC as a rival government, after the Islamists did poorly in the free elections for parliament (known as the House of Representatives, or HoR) last summer. León is to be replaced in the coming weeks, but he says his latest draft agreement is final and should be signed off and a “government of national accord” installed by October 20 when the mandate of the legitimate parliament expires. But this is the seventh draft, with each of the previous versions having been announced by León as final and about to be signed off by both sides. The prevailing political chaos is the source of ISIS’ apparent strength, not any significant support from the Libyan people. This latest draft emerged from negotiations León had been mediating in Morocco, and he had said there will be no more amendments. But it was amended because the GNC delegation withdrew from the talks in Morocco – and León had to accept amendments that strengthened the GNC’s role in the projected unity government. The executives of a unity government – a Prime Minister and two deputy Prime Ministers, have still to be negotiated. The Tobruk government suspected the GNC was dragging its feet on this last procedure, because if the HoR parliament loses its original mandate, then the Tobruk government would theoretically have no more legitimacy than the GNC in Tripoli. So the legitimate parliament on Monday voted to extend its term of office beyond October 20, without fixing any limit.
ISIS in Libya
Meanwhile more bodies keep washing up on the Libyan shoreline because Libya’s ports – the departure point for the hundreds of thousands of migrants attempting to cross the Mediterranean to reach Italy, are controlled by the GNC or ISIS. After nearly four years of increasing chaos and the growing strength of the Libyan affiliate of ISIS, more and more Libyans are fed up with what they perceive as a hopeless track to a stable and democratic country. The problems of governing Libya are not limited to the obvious rival political authorities. There are three very distinct rival regions – western, eastern and southern Libya. And on top of that there is the authority still exercised by the dozens of tribes in Libya, which with the collapse of Qaddafi’s highly centralized rule, have regained their strength as rival sources of potential conflict as well as a viable, comforting sense of identity and mutual aid. The third aspect in this political and security vacuum is of course ISIS. The prevailing political chaos is the source of ISIS’ apparent strength, not any significant support from the Libyan people. And indeed a significant percentage of ISIS fighters are foreigners, Salafi-jihadists coming from Libya’s many Arab and African Muslim neighboring countries.A growing sentiment – which has even been characterized as a grassroots movement – calls for the restoration of Libya’s 1951 constitution.
1951 constitution
There is a countercurrent to this political standoff. A growing sentiment – which has even been characterized as a grassroots movement – calls for the restoration of Libya’s 1951 constitution, which established the shape of then newly independent Libya as a constitutional monarchy, tied to a parliamentary system that was based on universal suffrage. Calls to restore the constitution have been heard in debates and conferences in Tripoli and Benghazi, and a growing number of advocates on social media. Libya’s royal family, deposed by Qaddafi in 1968, are the Senussi – leaders of the resistance to Italian colonialism.
In June leaders of Libya’s 40 tribes convened in Bayda, to pray for peace and unity, and to agree on measures the tribes can undertake in opposition to ISIS. It is widely believed that the inspiration of the gathering came from the self-claimed Crown Prince of Libya, Mohammed el-Senussi, who is the great-nephew – and disputed heir apparent – of King Idris, Libya’s first and only king. There is strong argument for federalism in Libya, which is a system that would recognize the three distinct regions. And the 1951 Constitution devolved significant authority to regional assemblies. But most importantly, a monarch transcends regional, partisan and ideological rivalries. A monarch becomes more than a symbol of unity, but a source driving unity – something Libya so desperately needs.

Putin's Syria Adventure Is an Opportunity for Washington and Ankara
Lt Col John R. Barnett/Al Arabiya/October 07/15
The bold military gamble in Syria surprised and confused the international community, but Putin has given the United States and Turkey a reason to more assertively counter Russia's ambitions in its own backyard. While all eyes are on Moscow's dramatic entry into the Syria conflict, policymakers and military planners should not forget about Vladimir Putin's ambitions in Russia's "near abroad," including the South Caucasus republics of Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. By capitalizing on existing structures and interoperability, the United States and Turkey can thwart Russia's efforts to expand its influence in the area, obliging Moscow to rein in its plans further abroad and allocate more resources closer to home. But it will not be an easy marriage. Over the past decade, relations between Ankara and Washington have ebbed and flowed. The rise of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party gradually distanced Turkey from the West, and both governments have had difficulty establishing shared interests on emerging issues in the Middle East and elsewhere. Moscow has sought to fill this vacuum by increasing its sway over Turkey's foreign policy decisions. Yet the latest events in Syria may encourage Ankara to change that equation and favor a lasting strategic alliance with the United States. The establishment of a Russian airfield on Turkey's southern flank, reports of Syria-based Russian jets violating Turkish airspace, and increasing concern over the intentions of Syrian Kurdish forces have all given Erdogan a reason to reassess his cooperation with Putin. Erdogan may not want to look westward, but he shares Washington's interest in containing Russia before it can broaden its footprint along Turkey's borders.
THE KREMLIN'S CALCULUS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
In Moscow's eyes, the South Caucasus should be under Russian dominion. Putin has openly described the Soviet Union's disintegration as a disaster and has not hidden his enmity toward Western interference in Russia's former Soviet neighbors. At the same time, he has methodically expanded Moscow's political, economic, and military influence over Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan, with little to no international backlash. In 2008, Russia intervened militarily against Tbilisi to support the separation of two Georgian enclaves, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Since then, it has steadily pushed for the annexation of both territories while quietly advancing their borders further into Georgian lands. During an August visit to Washington, Georgian defense minister Tinatin Khidasheli spoke candidly about this aggressive posture, highlighting a July incident in which the Russian border guard advanced South Ossetia's administrative boundary further south to encompass part of the Baku-Supsa oil pipeline. In addition, Russia has steadily augmented its air and ground forces at its military bases in Gyumri and Yerevan, Armenia, where it now has basing rights through 2044. Speculation continues about Moscow's intention to position "peacekeeping" troops in Nagorno-Karabakh under the pretense of preventing further conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Russia has simultaneously strengthened its relations with Azerbaijan via military sales, bolstering the perception that it will exploit both sides of the conflict to increase its military and political influence.
Coupling hard power with softer measures, Moscow has also sought to expand membership in the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union, with Armenia joining last January. Integrating Georgia and Azerbaijan would further increase Russia's sway over economic markets and the exploration and transit of vast natural resources.
TURKEY NEEDS INDEPENDENT NEIGHBORS
Ankara is heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas distribution and trade, and it has long been reluctant to challenge Moscow on significant geopolitical issues. Most recently, it treaded very carefully around Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia, then refused to endorse Western sanctions over the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Erdogan's September visit to Moscow reinforced this dynamic -- after meeting with Putin, he modified his "Assad must go" policy seemingly to placate his Russian host. Yet Turkey desperately needs less, not more, Russian intervention on its borders, especially in the South Caucasus. Ankara shares strong historical bonds with Georgia and Azerbaijan, and like Washington, it views the region as a geostrategic opportunity to work with likeminded, democratic, and independent states on numerous issues, such as increasing trade, diversifying energy sources, and fostering security alliances to counter transnational crime, nuclear proliferation, and terrorism. Using the South Caucasus as a transit point for key Turkish exports to Central Asia (e.g., machinery, iron and steel products, clothing) could become particularly important to Ankara over the next decade, as commerce with Middle East neighbors becomes less reliable amid conflicts in Iraq and Syria and open disagreements with Iran over the region's future. Most important, the South Caucasus is critical to Turkey's diversification of energy resources. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration indicates that Russian supplies account for almost 60 percent of Turkey's natural gas consumption, and demand is growing. Azerbaijan currently provides 10 percent of Turkey's gas needs, but the TANAP pipeline will eventually increase that figure so long as the route remains free of external interference (construction of the line began this year and is projected to conclude in 2018). If Moscow's influence in the Caucasus expands, Ankara may be forced to rely even more on Russian-controlled gas and petroleum resources, further strengthening Putin's sway.
THE U.S. ROLE
Washington seems to be in reactive mode following Putin's surprise adventures, but a more proactive approach involving relatively modest U.S. steps could accomplish much. Among them, a concise and visible American policy in the South Caucasus could strain Russia's economic and military capacity while increasing Washington's leverage. Any such policy must begin with a clear statement condemning Russia's intrusions on regional sovereignty and democracy, calling attention to its push for annexation of prior Georgian territories. Currently, local leaders seem uncertain of Washington's long-term position -- Vice President Joe Biden's 2009 visit to Tbilisi and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's trips in 2010 and 2012 were meaningful and well received, but the dearth of specific U.S. commitments may have come across more as mollifying Russia than fostering stronger U.S. engagement. Moscow's ensuing actions in Ukraine and Syria should be the impetus for more direct attention, however. In particular, offering a clear roadmap for Georgia's inclusion in NATO would reinforce the bilateral commitment and challenge Russia on its doorstep. NATO members in Europe and elsewhere are likely more willing to accelerate Georgia's timeline as concern grows over Moscow's unpredictable actions, but Washington needs to take the lead. Meanwhile, increased engagement could create the conditions for greater U.S. and Turkish private investment and services in the region, especially to support expanding fossil fuel exploration in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Such outreach could also reassure Azerbaijan and Georgia that the strategic value of their efforts in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the global counterterrorism campaign has not been forgotten.
This diplomatic line of effort should be accompanied by clear shows of strength. The recent American-led naval exercises in the Black Sea (dubbed "Sea Breeze") and joint land-based military exercises in Georgia ("Noble Partner" and "Agile Spirit") set a solid foundation, as did Turkey's "Caucasian Eagle" exercises with Georgia and Azerbaijan in June. Larger-scale exercises should be planned with both countries, sponsored by the United States and Turkey under the NATO banner. Ankara and Washington should also exploit their respective advantages -- proximity and fifth-generation aircraft -- with unannounced displays of force. Turkey's recent decision to let U.S. jets use Incirlik Air Base to target Islamist extremists in Syria was a limited deal, but it could facilitate more extensive joint efforts to give Russia strategic pause. Former U.S. ambassador James Jeffrey recently suggested that F-22 Raptors could be based in Israel to keep Moscow's objectives in check inside Syria, knowing that even the feared Russian S-300 air defense system can be defeated by U.S. stealth aircraft (see PolicyWatch 2492, "Obama at the UN"). Similarly, deploying the F-22 -- and, once operational, the F-35 joint strike fighter -- to Incirlik to support Syrian operations and conduct exercises with the Turkish, Georgian, and Azeri air forces would reinforce Washington and Ankara's commitment to the region. Erdogan's efforts to distance his country from the West tend to subside when Turkey's core security interests are at stake. Moscow's brazen military activities have left him uncomfortably in the middle of Russia's designs to restore itself as a regional and global power. Ankara likely realizes that it cannot impede those designs unless it strategically partners with the United States, as in the past. At a time when Moscow seems to be overextending itself, Ankara and Washington should exploit their potential advantage. Despite other global priorities, Washington has an opportunity to rein in Putin's ambitions with only a modest investment of resources, and Ankara should be part of that equation in the South Caucasus. *Lt Col John Barnett (USAF), a National Defense Fellow at The Washington Institute, has completed command tours in Turkey and South Asia. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Department of Defense, or U.S. government.

Abbas Calls for Murder, Palestinians Attack
Khaled Abu Toameh/Gatestone Institute/October 07/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6647/abbas-palestinians-murder
The terrorists did not need permission from Hamas leaders to murder the first Jews they ran into. The inflammatory rhetoric of Abbas and Palestinian Authority (PA) officials and media outlets was sufficient to drive any Palestinian to go out and murder Jews.
Instead of condemning the murder of the Jews, the PA denounced Israel for killing the two Palestinians who carried out the Jerusalem attacks.
The Palestinian Authority and its leaders are in no position today to condemn the murder of any Jews, simply because the PA itself has been encouraging such terrorist attacks through its ceaseless campaign of incitement against Israel.
The PA is playing a double game: it tells the world that it wants peace and coexistence with Israel; meanwhile it incites Palestinians against Israel, driving some to set out with guns and knives to murder Jews.
Although Abbas has repeatedly stated during the past few years that he does not want another intifada against Israel, his statements and actions show that he is doing his utmost to spark another wave of violence, in order to invite international pressure on Israel.
The Palestinian Authority (PA) and its leaders, including President Mahmoud Abbas, cannot evade responsibility for the latest wave of terror attacks against Israelis in Jerusalem and the West Bank.
True, in the end it turned out that Hamas was behind the murder of Eitam and Naama Henkin in front of their four children, but there is no ignoring the fact that the anti-Israel incitement of Abbas and other Palestinian leaders in Ramallah paved the way for the terrorists to carry out this and other attacks.
The incitement, which has been around for many years, intensified after the arson attack that killed three members of the Dawabsha family in the West Bank village of Duma in July.
Since then, Abbas and his senior officials have been waging an unprecedented campaign of incitement against Israel in general and Jewish settlers in particular, although the perpetrators of the Duma attack still have not been identified or caught. Palestinian Authority leaders have since accused the Israeli government of committing "war crimes," and have told their people that the arson attack was actually part of an Israeli conspiracy against all Palestinians.
Abbas has even gone as far as accusing Israel of promoting a "culture of terror and apartheid." That claim came in addition to threats by senior Palestinian officials to launch retaliatory "operations" against Israel in response to the arson attack.
The West Bank's Palestinian media, which are controlled by the PA, have also played a role in the massive campaign of incitement against Israel and settlers. Jewish settlers are depicted in Palestinian media outlets as "gangsters" and "terrorists" and the Israeli government is dubbed the "Occupation Government."
Official Palestinian Authority media outlets incite Palestinians, from a young age, to murder Jews. (Image source: Palestinian Media Watch)
The recent tensions at the Aqsa Mosque compound on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem have also been exploited by Abbas and the Palestinian Authority leadership to delegitimize Israel and demonize "Jewish extremists and settlers." For several months now, Abbas and his senior officials and media outlets have been accusing Jewish visitors to the holy site of "contaminating" and "desecrating" one of Islam's holiest shrines. Palestinian officials and journalists have been telling their people that the Jews are plotting to demolish the Aqsa Mosque. Moreover, they have been urging and encouraging Palestinians to converge on the Aqsa Mosque compound to "defend" it against purported Jewish schemes.
The campaign of incitement reached its peak recently when Abbas was quoted as accusing Jews of "defiling the Aqsa Mosque with their filthy feet." Abbas also announced that, "Every drop of blood spilled in Jerusalem is pure blood."
The Hamas terrorists who murdered the Henkins live in the West Bank, and were undoubtedly exposed to the incitement by Abbas and the PA. The terrorists did not need permission from the Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip or Turkey to go out and murder the first Jews they ran into. The inflammatory rhetoric of Abbas and Palestinian Authority officials and media outlets was sufficient to drive any Palestinian to murder Jews.
The two Palestinian assailants who carried out last week's stabbing attacks in Jerusalem wanted to kill Jews because they were led to believe that this was the only means to stop them from "contaminating" the Aqsa Mosque. After all, this is precisely what Abbas and other PA officials have been telling them for the past few months. Again, while the two stabbers were not Abbas loyalists (one of them, Muhannad Halabi, was affiliated with Palestinian Islamic Jihad), there is no doubt that the incitement of the Palestinian Authority played a major role in increasing their motivation to murder Jews.
Halabi, who stabbed and shot four Israelis in the Old City of Jerusalem, killing Rabbi Nehemia Lavi and Aharon Banita, and wounding Adele Banita and her baby, wrote on his Facebook page hours before the attack: "What is happening to al-Aqsa Mosque is what is happening to our holy sites, and what is happening to the women of al-Aqsa is what is happening to our mothers and women. I don't believe that our people will succumb to humiliation. The people will indeed rise up." Halabi's statements are not much different from those made by several senior PA officials in recent weeks and months.
The Palestinian Authority also bears responsibility for the wave of terror attacks: its leaders never condemned the murder of the four Jews near Nablus and in the Old City of Jerusalem. By refusing to denounce the attacks, Abbas and the PA leadership are sending a message to Palestinians that it is fine to murder Jewish parents in front of their children, or Jews on their way to pray at the Western Wall. Instead of condemning the murder of the Jews, the Palestinian Authority chose to denounce Israel for killing the two Palestinians who carried out the Jerusalem attacks. By doing so, the PA is actually inciting Palestinians to seek revenge for the "cold-blooded execution" of the two assailants.
The Palestinian Authority and its leaders are in no position today to condemn the killing of any Jews, simply because it is the PA itself that has been encouraging such terrorist attacks through its ceaseless campaign of incitement against Israel.
In this regard, the PA is playing a double game: on the one hand, it is telling the world that it wants peace and coexistence with Israel; on the other hand, it is continuing to incite Palestinians against Israel, and driving some to take guns and knives and set out to murder Jews.
The Palestinian Authority's fiery anti-Israel rhetoric has led to a wave of terrorist attacks that could easily deteriorate into a third intifada. Although Abbas has repeatedly stated during the past few years that he does not want another intifada against Israel, his statements and actions show that he is doing his utmost to spark another wave of violence in order to draw the world's attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and invite international pressure on Israel.
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Iraqi Writer, Farouq Yousef : Only Arab Societies Can Bring The Era Of The False Jihad To An End
MEMRI/October 6, 2015 Special Dispatch No.6175
On July 11, 2015,in the online daily Middle East Online, Iraqi writer Farouq Yousef criticized jihad fighters who, he said, sanctify death and view anyone desiring to live as an enemy who must be killed. Arguing that jihad is an absurd war, and that everywhere the jihad banner has been raised human dignity has been violated and liberties have been revoked, he stated that jihad fighters were combating the value of life itself. For this reason, he said, Arab societies will remain at risk as long as they, and they alone, do not bring to an end the lie of jihad.
Below are translated excerpts from his article:[1]
Farouq Yousef (Image: Middle-east-online.com, July 11, 2015)
"With the Afghanistan war against the Russians, jihad fighters began to surround us on all sides. They multiply and are renewed; their faces change, and they repeatedly [speak] eloquently on the opportunity to attain Paradise...
"Because jihad fighters fight to die as martyrs, war for its own sake has become their objective.
"The war [of jihad that began] in Afghanistan has in effect not yet ended, and it cannot end, because of its absurdity, and because it has lost its goals, and because the blind illusions of its participants who make up its steady stream of cannon fodder. These jihad fighters are of no specific age, and none reaches retirement age; they do not abandon the battle arena until they die...
"Jihad, the voice of which is now rising in many regions of the Arab world, is a form of suicidal war, waged not in defense of human dignity and liberty, to liberate land, to preserve women's honor, to protect natural resources, or to fight corruption. On the contrary: What the jihad fighters are doing sketches a picture of the complete opposite. Indeed, wherever the jihad fighters have raised their banner adorned the name of Allah, man's dignity is violated; his liberty is stripped away; his natural resources are looted; his women's honor is violated, and his land has been stolen from him.
"The jihad fighters are not rebelling against a corrupt regime. On the contrary: They are themselves the essence of corruption, created by a regime that seeks refuge in jihad. It [jihad] is a tool for deifying common folk, by means of the idea of war against the apostates, aimed at obtaining gratification in the next world – which is preferable to thinking of worldly matters such as homeland, natural resources, liberty, and other ideas imported from the West...
"The jihad war in Afghanistan against the Russians generated jihad wars against the Muslims, particularly against the Arabs... Were the jihad fighters supposed to abandon the profession of jihad just because the first Afghanistan war ended in a Russian defeat?... According to the view of the jihad fighters who devoted their lives to death, relinquishing the dream [of death]is a betrayal of the commandment to wage jihad. Perhaps this idea cannot be contained in societies who seek to integrate into the current era, because this era favors the idea of a life that provides an opportunity for liberty, equality, constructive progress; a world in which man is the crown of creation by virtue of his intellect and imagination, and by virtue of his constructive willpower.
"[The idea of] death for no reason, which is part of the concept of jihad, is not in the lexicon of these [modern] societies. As the jihad fighters see it, this makes them an enemy. The Muslim Brotherhood's war against the Egyptian people, the war of Hizbullah and Jabhat Al-Nusra against the Syrian people, and the war of ISIS and the Al-Hashd Al-Shaabi [Shi'ite Popular Mobilization Units] militias against the Iraqi people are predictable outcomes of this historic clash, that has become an inevitable decree.
"Indeed, the jihad fighters, who do not believe that their jihad era can end without death, refuse to accept the existence of anyone who prefers living to dying. As far as they are concerned, such a deviation from the correct path must not pass in silence.
"Jihad fighters are fighting life. They see it as representing deviation from the correct path. This is why our societies will remain threatened by death – as long as they themselves do not bring to an end the era of the false jihad."
Endnotes:
[1]Middle-east-online.com, July 11, 2015.

Saudi prince alleges capture of Iranian military, Hezbollah in Yemen
Barbara Slavin/Al-Monito/ October07/15
A former commander in the Saudi navy and expert in special operations said Oct. 6 that Saudi forces have captured Iranian military officers and Hezbollah members in Yemen despite Iran’s claims that it has not intervened militarily on the side of Houthi rebels.
Prince Sultan bin Khalid Al-Faisal, a grandson of the late Saudi King Faisal and a nephew of the kingdom’s recently deceased longtime foreign minister, Saud al-Faisal, told an audience on Capitol Hill that Saudi Arabia is prepared to lead the Middle East against a host of threats, including “increasing Iranian incursion into other states’ affairs” and the turmoil that has followed the so-called Arab Spring. Sultan, 48, who recently retired from active duty after 20 years in the Saudi military, said he was not speaking on behalf of the Saudi government. But his comments echoed accusations by Saudi officials that Iran is actively intervening in conflicts in Yemen and other Arab countries. According to Sultan, “Some of the prisoners [captured by Saudi-led forces in Yemen] are Hezbollah and Iranians.” Sultan said the Saudis also encountered members of Hezbollah during a previous conflict with Houthi rebels in 2009. He said that Hezbollah members were in Yemen then to upgrade launchers for Frog missiles that the Houthis were trying to adapt. “Hezbollah was very involved,” Sultan said. “They were there.”
The Iranian Mission to the United Nations had no immediate comment when asked about the validity of these allegations. In the past, however, Iran has denied military involvement in Yemen and said that its influence over the Houthis is minimal. Saudi bombing of Yemen, which began in March after the Houthis seized control of the capital, Sanaa, and marched south has aroused widespread criticism because of the humanitarian crisis it has caused in one of the world’s poorest states. However, Sultan, who had extensive training in the United States, including in the US Navy SEAL program, and led development of the Saudi navy's special forces, said the Saudi role in regional conflicts “is very much misunderstood by many in the international community and some of our Muslim brothers.” Situated “in a region of turmoil, revolutions and occupation … Saudi Arabia has to survive and maintain a stable and viable government,” Sultan said. “We do not seek to become an expansionist country … export revolutionary ideas [or] project power through far-off lands.”On the other hand, Sultan said, “When the national interests of Saudi Arabia are threatened, then Saudi Arabia has no qualms whatsoever in using its armed forces.” He pointed to past interventions, including protecting Kuwait from Iraq in the 1960s and “numerous border conflicts … most of them with Yemen.”
“We have had a lot of experience in combat,” Sultan said. “We have learned from our failures and built on our successes. We have a young leadership and a lot of enthusiasm and drive.” He also pointed to the growing role of special forces in the kingdom’s military, which previously stressed conventional warfare.
Sultan expressed alarm about the rise of instability in the region, which he traced to the US overthrow of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in 2003. “The level of violence has increased tenfold” since then, the prince said. Sultan also voiced doubt about whether the recently concluded nuclear agreement with Iran would actually stop it from developing nuclear weapons. “They have 10 years to accumulate riches and they can start up again,” he said. With the United States and other Western powers disengaging from Middle Eastern conflicts, “We are going to have to take care of ourselves,” Sultan said. Speaking fluent English, Sultan said with emphasis, “We are moving the armed forces to a level needed today to lead — lead — the Middle East.” In recent years in part because of concerns about Iran, Saudi Arabia has gone on a weapons buying binge. The kingdom ordered about $65 billion worth last year — making it the world’s top arms importer — and is in the middle of the largest US arms deal in history — $60 million in new fighter jets and helicopters. The Saudis are also buying more US Patriot missile batteries.
Asked by Al-Monitor whether the collapse of oil prices this year and consequent increase in the Saudi budget deficit would dampen the buying spree, Sultan noted that Saudi Arabia had experienced a similar crisis in the 1980s and we “learned how to tighten our belts. … We’re pretty good at getting the most out of our weapons. If we need to slow down our procurement, we will.”Al-Monitor also asked about allegations that the Saudis have rebuffed recent cease-fire proposals for Yemen and refused talks about Syria and other issues with the Iranians. Sultan replied that the Saudis had accepted humanitarian cease-fires but that the Houthis “chose to disregard those terms.” As for outreach by Iran, he said that the Saudis had been open to engagement except for “last week at the United Nations,” when Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir refused talks with Iran because of what Sultan said was “escalating rhetoric” in response to the deaths of Iranians and other pilgrims during a stampede at the hajj. The Iranians have accused the Saudis of incompetent management of the annual pilgrimage and the two sides have exchanged conspiracy theories about who caused the tragedy.
Relations between the two regional powers were already at rock bottom because of deep differences over the future of Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. Regarding Syria, the Saudis demand that President Bashar al-Assad step down as part of any peace agreement. Sultan told the Capitol Hill audience, “We are more than willing to sit down and talk to Iran. It’s a neighbor. We can’t be at each other’s throats forever.” However, he told Al-Monitor after the briefing, “There have to be good intentions on both sides.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told a New York audience Oct. 5 that to resolve regional disputes requires a “different paradigm” similar to the nuclear deal in which “we were able to define the problem in a non-zero-sum way. … The same applies to Syria, Yemen, Iraq. … Unless we change the paradigm, we will not be able to resolve our problems.”However, David Ottaway, a Middle East expert at the Wilson International Center for Scholars, told Al-Monitor, “I don’t think Saudi Arabia is in a talking mood. It’s in a fighting mood.”Asked when the time would be right for Saudi-Iranian dialogue, Nawaf Obaid, a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and an Al-Monitor contributor, set the bar high. He told Al-Monitor, “The time will be right when there is a final settlement in Syria and when the Iranian role there is destroyed.”
Laura Rozen contributed to this report.

Another Syrian nightmare, courtesy of the Russians
Fehim Taştekin/Al-Monito/ October07/15
Turkey is now having to cope with multifaceted ramifications of Russia’s intervention in Syria. What has made Ankara nervous is not only the failure of the government’s Syria policy, but the collapse of plans for a safe zone to house Syrian refugees and withering away of the idea to support opposition forces with Turkey’s rules of engagement. Now Turkey has to deal with new tensions created by the fleeing of armed Syrian militants from Russian bombings to Turkey.Before going into implications of the Russian violations, it will help to take a look at the situation along the border that has been off the Turkish agenda for a while.It is a fact that northern Syria acquires its logistics and manpower through Turkey. In earlier days, militants escaping from the Syrian army into refugee camps near the border had caused fatalities. Now the Russian air force is on the scene and the escape routes are once again active.
According to what Al-Monitor learned from local sources in Hatay on Oct. 5, 15 militants in full gear entered Turkey at the Turfanda village on the Syria-Turkey border and moved toward Antakya. Residents notified the gendarmerie but the men eventually disappeared in the company of soldiers.
On Oct. 3 at 11 p.m., a bus that entered Turkey from Yayladagi was forced to stop after crashing into a car at Hatay’s Harbiye district. The bus with nonmatching back and front license plates and passengers inside attracted attention. When the passengers left the bus with their belongings and began to disperse through the side streets, rumors spread that jihadists had reached Harbiye. Subsequently, the police took the passengers to a nearby school building, until police reinforcement arrived and the passengers were taken away. Nobody really knew who they were.
As Russia intensifies pressure on the Aleppo, Idlib and Raqqa areas, this kind of militant movement is inevitable. Hatay has always been a city that has been fervently opposed to Ankara’s Syria policy that backs jihadist groups.
Representatives of armed groups last week rushed to Istanbul to discuss how to respond to Russia's intervention. Ahrar al-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, Suqour al-Sham, Jaish al-Mujahideen and Sultan Murat Brigade attended the two-day meeting that concluded with a call from 41 organizations fighting the Bashar al-Assad regime to regional countries to unite against the Russia-Iran alliance.
Russia tested Turkish borders
As to Russian violations of Turkish airspace, what cannot escape notice is how Turkey’s rules of engagement against the Syrian military operating near the Turkish border were invalidated by airspace violations of Russian jets. On Oct. 3, a Russian Su-30 loaded with bombs violated the Turkish border south of Hatay-Yayladagi for two minutes, and Turkish warplanes scrambled to intercept. The violation was repeated the next day. Russia not only violated the airspace but also harassed the Turkish interceptors; according to a statement by the Turkish High Command, on Oct. 4, a MiG-29 jet locked its radar for five minutes and 40 seconds on two Turkish F-16s patrolling along the border. Russia’s Ankara-based Ambassador Andrey Karlov was summoned to the Foreign Ministry, and Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu called his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov to convey Turkey’s reaction. Turkey also engaged its NATO allies, and warnings issued to Russia multiplied. The Turkish government had concealed the developments until a TV broadcast on Oct. 5 informed the public of the recent events. Has Russia changed the rules of the game, despite saying that its actions are not intentional? If so, how?
Russia sent a message that its operations in Syria will expand to the Turkey’s border.
Russia showed its determination not only to target the Islamic State, but also the areas controlled by groups supported by the Gulf states and the West. Turkey reacted sharply to this development. Russia challenged the veracity of Turkey’s rules of engagement. After Syria had shot down a Turkish F-4 reconnaissance plane over the Mediterranean on June 22, 2012, Turkey had announced that it would hit Syrian military elements approaching its border. In the context of these rules of engagement, the Turkish air force shot down a Syrian helicopter on Sept. 16, 2013; a MiG-23 warplane on March 23, 2014; and a Syrian aircraft on May 16, 2015. But as the violating aircraft was a Russian plane, Turkey made do with an interception flight, thus suspending its rules of engagement.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu took a tough line after the incident. “Turkey’s rules of engagement are valid for Syria, Russia or any other country. Turkish armed forces have clear instructions. Even if it is a bird, whatever violates Turkey’s borders, it will be confronted,” he said, without really impressing anyone.
The Turkish public is inured to Davutoglu’s blustering statements of the sort that “nobody should try to test our power,” which have no bearing on the events. Although Ankara wants to make the issue again a NATO crisis, reactions by the alliance are far from meeting Ankara’s expectations. In short, Russia tested the limits of Turkey’s rules of engagement that also apply to NATO. The Western alliance that found it adequate to apply its Article 4, calling for consultations instead of Article 5 that calls for action when a Turkish jet is downed — which didn’t react to the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and that couldn’t take any deterrent position vis-a-vis the events in eastern Ukraine — will find it hard to do anything more than issuing warnings. Despite such warnings, Russians staged their third harassment action on Oct. 5. According to information provided by the chief of General Staff on Oct. 5, while eight Turkish F-16s were on air patrol along the border, they were harassed by a MiG-29 that locked its radar on them for 4½ minutes. At the same time, Syria-based surface-to-air missiles locked their radars on Turkish planes for four minutes and 15 seconds. This could well mean that Russia has established a de facto no-fly zone near the border. Has Turkey not tried so hard to declare a no-fly zone against the Syrian regime in this area? It has now become clearer how Russia has changed the rules of the game since Oct. 5, right after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned, “What has been done to Turkey, has been done to NATO. Our relations with Russia are there to see, but they will lose.”
These are signs that Russia is willing to take on all challenges and that it is ready to cope with whatever may happen.

Is the Oslo Accord at death's door?
Daoud Kuttab/Al-Monito/ October07/15
Two weeks before Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the 70th session of the UN General Assembly, he had warned on Sept. 16 of a "political bomb" he planned to drop in his speech. Commentators have argued that while Abbas did threaten to end Palestinian adherence to the 1993 Oslo Accord, he didn’t actually detail when and how he plans to end the legal commitment to the US-sponsored agreement. Abbas’ comments about the agreement were stated in diplomatic terms. “As long as Israel refuses to cease settlement activities and to release the fourth group of Palestinian prisoners in accordance with our agreements, they leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements.” Abbas’ lawyer-like language didn’t translate into a direct and unequivocal abandonment of the accord. Some commentators said that Abbas’ actions are tantamount to exposing a hand grenade but leaving it unexploded on the table without any date of when it might explode. Others said Abbas pulled the hand grenade’s pin but didn’t throw it, implying that it might blow up in his face. The conditionality of Abbas’ threat is worth digging into. What are the commitments that the Israelis have violated, and what are the clauses of the Oslo Accord that Abbas will stop honoring? The Palestine Liberation Organization’s Negotiations Affairs Department published on its website an undated document pointing out nine Israeli violations of the Oslo Accord, among them failure to honor the provisions for ending the occupation, settlements, continued restrictions on movement — including the safe passage between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank — and the refusal to release prisoners incarcerated before the signing of the September 1993 agreement at the White House.
Abdelrahman Barqawi, a member of the Palestine National Council and a retired Palestinian Ministry of Health senior official, told Al-Monitor that Palestinians should suspend security cooperation, division of land and economic issues. “The division of our land into Areas A, B and C, which inexorably affects our sovereignty and hurts farmers, must end. We should also end the Paris economic agreement, which has damaged our economy, making it subservient to the Israeli financial system.”
Barqawi added that as of 1999, the Oslo Accord had in fact already “expired” but what has kept it alive has been the uneven balance of power. “At present, the Palestinian Authority and the PLO can’t bypass the Oslo Accord in one step; they must do it gradually,” he said. Moheeb Barghouti, a poet and cultural editor at the pro-government Al-Hayat Al-Jadida, told Al-Monitor that the idea of suspending security cooperation is a mistake. “I don’t believe Abu Mazen [Abbas] will give up on security coordination, as it will put us all in a big prison and will also make it possible for Hamas to lead a coup against him in the West Bank.”
Barghouti argued that Abbas is more interested in “economic agreements, such as the Paris Protocol, than in the security ones.”Perhaps the most circulated comments about Abbas’ UN speech were posted on Facebook by the Islamic Jihad member who carried out an attack on Israelis Oct. 3 in Jerusalem's Old City. Muhannad Halabi, from al-Bireh, had posted Sept. 30 on his Facebook page veiled criticism to the Palestinian president in regard to his inability to put a stop to the daily humiliations Palestinians suffer at the hands of the Israelis. “Until when will we accept this humiliation and shame? How long will we keep silent?” posted Halabi on his Facebook page. Halabi, who was a law student at Al-Quds University, ends his post by asking a rhetorical question: “Is there a chance for peaceful resistance?” He then answers his own question. “The law gives one the right to defend himself and resistance is legitimate,” he argued hours before going to Jerusalem and getting killed after killing two Israelis. Nasser Atta, a Palestinian journalist, noted that the Oslo Accord actually died back in November 1995 when Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by a Jewish extremist. “When Rabin died, the Oslo Accord died with him,” Atta said, in reference to the fact that Rabin was committed to carrying out the agreement to its natural results.
But while Abbas’ speech produced a range of opinions as to what will happen next, a senior Fatah official confided to Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity that Abbas has no serious plans “at present” to abandon the Oslo Accord but wants to improve his position if and when he goes back to the negotiating table.“Abu Mazen does not believe in anything but negotiations. He is willing to get back to the talks if the Israelis honor their commitment to release the fourth batch of veteran prisoners and to suspend settlement activities,” the source told Al-Monitor. The source, who asked not to be identified as he is not authorized to speak to the press, added that unlike the late Yasser Arafat, Abbas “doesn’t play games and doesn’t try to shake up the talks using other means.”The source added that Abbas is having a hard time getting his way in the upcoming seventh Fatah congress, which is theoretically due to be held Nov. 29. “He wants to anoint chief intelligence officer Majed Farraj and chief negotiator Saeb Erekat as part of his succession team, but he is facing resistance from Fatah’s Central Committee,” the source noted.
Abbas’ political efforts might have received an unexpected boost as a result of the sharp escalation of tension this week and especially since early October. As the head of a strong security force, he is able to ensure the Israelis of containing the violence without having had any role in instigating it.
In his speech at the United Nations, Abbas appeared as a leader who is at the edge of desperation and unable to provide protection or freedom to his people. His attitude added to the general feelings of hopelessness among Palestinians and closed even further any political horizon that some might have hoped for. This desperation might not lead to much change on the ground unless the international community gets involved and puts pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make a dramatic policy change. Few Palestinians are holding their breath waiting for a rather busy international community to pay attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or for the hard-line Israeli leadership to retract its repression position toward Palestinian yearnings for independence. **Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist, a media activist and a columnist for Palestine Pulse. He is a former Ferris Professor of journalism at Princeton University and is currently the director-general of Community Media Network, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to advancing independent media in the Arab region. On Twitter: @daoudkuttab

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