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Very truly, I tell you, whoever keeps my word will never see death
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/51-55: "Very truly, I tell you, whoever keeps my word will never see death.’The Jews said to him, ‘Now we know that you have a demon. Abraham died, and so did the prophets; yet you say, "Whoever keeps my word will never taste death."Are you greater than our father Abraham, who died? The prophets also died. Who do you claim to be?’ Jesus answered, ‘If I glorify myself, my glory is nothing. It is my Father who glorifies me, he of whom you say, "He is our God", though you do not know him. But I know him; if I were to say that I do not know him, I would be a liar like you. But I do know him and I keep his word."

Together they have become worthless;There is no one who shows kindness, there is not even one
Letter to the Romans 03/01-12: "What advantage has the Jew? Or what is the value of circumcision? Much, in every way. For in the first place the Jews were entrusted with the oracles of God. What if some were unfaithful? Will their faithlessness nullify the faithfulness of God? By no means! Although everyone is a liar, let God be proved true, as it is written, ‘So that you may be justified in your words, and prevail in your judging.’ But if our injustice serves to confirm the justice of God, what should we say? That God is unjust to inflict wrath on us? (I speak in a human way.) By no means! For then how could God judge the world? But if through my falsehood God’s truthfulness abounds to his glory, why am I still being condemned as a sinner? And why not say (as some people slander us by saying that we say), ‘Let us do evil so that good may come’? Their condemnation is deserved! What then? Are we any better off? No, not at all; for we have already charged that all, both Jews and Greeks, are under the power of sin, as it is written: ‘There is no one who is righteous, not even one; there is no one who has understanding, there is no one who seeks God. All have turned aside, together they have become worthless; there is no one who shows kindness, there is not even one.’"

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 19-20/15
Is ISIS looking to move in on the Arsal-Ras Baalbek area/Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/November 19/15
Trashed/Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/November 19/15
Al Azhar and ISIS: Cause and Effect/Raymond Ibrahim/November 18/15
IAEA: Iran increased stock of uranium/Yitzhak Benhorin/Ynetnews/News Agencies/November 19/15
Will Iran pursue high-cost strategy in Syria/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
Is it time for China to step up its engagement in the Middle East/Mohammad Ali Shabani/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
In the battle against IS, where is the Arab coalition/Bruce Riedel/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
Will Nidaa Tunis' troubles boost Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt/Rami Galal/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
Can Syrian opposition defend both Hama and Aleppo at the same time/Cynthia Milan/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
The EU's Embarrassing Little Secret in Labeling Israeli Products/Malcolm Lowe/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
Fake Protests/Jagdish N. Singh/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
Turkey Destroys Kurdistan, World Silent/Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
Iraq May Repeal Child Conversion Law/AINA/November 19/15
Punishing Syrian refugees will only help ISIS/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/November 19/15
Paris attacks cause strategy change against ISIS/Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/November 19/15
The Paris tragedy and Bashar al-Assad's future/Manuel Almeida/Al Arabiya/November 19/15

Security Council Urges Lebanese to Elect President, End 'Any Involvement in Syrian Crisis'
Naharnet/November 19/15/The U.N. Security Council on Thursday issued a press statement urging all Lebanese parties to “cease any involvement in the Syrian crisis” and calling on Lebanese politicians to “urgently” elect a new president. “The members of the Security Council were briefed on 18 November 2015 by the Special Coordinator for Lebanon of the Secretary-General, Sigrid Kaag, on the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolution 1701 (2006),” said the statement, which was issued Thursday by Council President Matthew Rycroft. The members reiterated their condemnation in the “strongest terms” of the deadly suicide bombings that hit the Beirut southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh. The attack, among the worst in years, left 43 people dead and around 240 others wounded and was claimed by the extremist Islamic State group, which has seized vast swathes of Iraq and Syria. The members of the Security Council said they renew in “these challenging circumstances” their “strong support for Lebanon’s State institutions, including the Lebanese Armed Forces and security services, in their efforts to safeguard the security and stability of the country.” They also expressed their “continuing concern at the negative impact of the Syrian crisis on Lebanon’s stability and the immediate threat to its security.” Highlighting the importance of Lebanon’s so-called policy of disassociation towards the Syrian crisis, the members called on all Lebanese parties to “cease any involvement in the Syrian crisis,” reminding them of “their commitment in the ministerial declaration of the current Government and in the Baabda Declaration.” Turning to the lengthy presidential vacuum that started in May 2014, the members expressed “deep concern,” warning that the void “seriously impairs Lebanon’s ability to address the security, economic, social, and humanitarian challenges facing the country.”They called on all Lebanese leaders to adhere to “Lebanon's Constitution and to the Taef Agreement and National Pact, to put Lebanon's stability and national interests ahead of partisan politics.”They also urged them to “act responsibly and with leadership and flexibility to urgently convene a parliamentary session and proceed to the election of a President.”Separately, the members of the Security Council “noted with concern the deep socioeconomic impact of the refugee crisis on Lebanon,” urging members states to increase assistance to Lebanon. The members also reiterated full support for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), calling on all parties to “abide scrupulously by their obligation to respect the safety of UNIFIL and other United Nations personnel.”

Army Intercepts Car Carrying Explosives in al-Bourj al-Shamali
Naharnet/November 19/15/The army on Thursday stopped a car carrying a small amount of explosives at the entrance of a Palestinian refugee camp in the southern town of al-Bourj al-Shamali, east of Tyre. “An army unit intercepted a Renault Centro car carrying a fake license plate at the entrance of the al-Bourj al-Shamali camp,” the Army Command said in a statement. The driver, Lebanese citizen Ahmed Jihad Alawiyeh, and the passengers Lebanese national Hussein Hamad Alawiyeh and Palestinian national Wissam Ali Dahwish were arrested. “Two kilograms of explosives and a duct tape used in detonation were seized in the car,” the army added. The detainees were referred to the relevant authorities as an investigation was launched, it added. Explosives and suicide vests were seized in recent days as security forces launched a massive nationwide crackdown in the wake of deadly suicide blasts in the Beirut southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh. The attack, the worst in years, killed 44 people and wounded 240 others and was claimed by the jihadist Islamic State group.

Kanaan Meets Geagea, Says to Coordinate with LF on Electoral Law
Naharnet/November 19/15/Change and Reform bloc secretary MP Ibrahim Kanaan announced Thursday that the Free Patriotic Movement will coordinate with the Lebanese Forces on the issue of the new electoral law. Kanaan voiced his remarks after a meeting in Maarab with LF leader Samir Geagea in the presence of LF media officer Melhem Riachi. The lawmaker was delegated by Change and Reform bloc chief MP Michel Aoun, according to OTV. “We discussed the outcome of the legislative session, especially the developments that accompanied it at the national level,” said Kanaan. “We have proved that we can be productive when we unify the priorities and reach a common vision,” he added. The MP stressed that the new electoral law must “fully respect the Constitution and national partnership.” Asked if the FPM will coordinate with the LF on the issue of the electoral law, Kanaan said: “We have a common vision regarding the fairness and proper representation that we are seeking, and of course there will be FPM-LF coordination to devise a draft law or reach a common vision on the electoral law.” On Wednesday, a 10-member parliamentary panel was set up to devise a new electoral law, as part of the political settlement that had led to holding a legislative session on Thursday and Friday after around a one-year interruption. Both the FPM and the LF had earlier threatened to boycott the session should Speaker Nabih Berri fail to put the issue of the electoral law on its agenda. Ongoing disputes among the rival political parties over the electoral law forced parliament to extend its term the first time in 2013 and a second time in 2014. Media reports have said that the subcommittee would have two months to reach an agreement over the electoral draft law.

Suicide Vest, Bomb-Making Material Found in Garbage in Sidon
Naharnet/November 19/15/A suicide vest, bomb-making material and a tactical vest were found Thursday during garbage sorting in the southern city of Sidon, media reports said. “Workers found a suicide vest containing explosives, a timer and a tactical vest as they were sorting garbage at the Sayniq waste management plant in south Sidon,” state-run National News Agency reported. “Security forces immediately arrived on the scene and launched an investigation,” NNA added. Several suicide vests were seized in recent days as security forces launched a massive nationwide crackdown in the wake of deadly suicide blasts in the Beirut southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh. The attack, the worst in years, killed 44 people and wounded 240 others and was claimed by the jihadist Islamic State group.

Portolano: Cooperation with Army is Close, Situation Stable in the South
Naharnet/November 19/15/United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon Commander Maj. Gen. Luciano Portolano hailed on Thursday the cooperation between the peace keeping forces and the Lebanese army, stressing that the security situation in the south is stable. “I have hailed the close cooperation between the UNIFIL forces, the Lebanese army and its intelligence forces which would very much help us in solving the problems that could endanger security and calm in the South,” said Portolano after a meeting with Defense Minister Samir Moqbel. “The security situation is stable now.”He also extended his condolences over the victims of the Bourj al-Barajneh twin blasts. Last week, twin blasts claimed by the Islamic State, rocked the Bourj al-Barajneh neighborhood south of Beirut leaving 43 dead and more than 200 injured. Portolano hailed the close cooperation between the UNIFIL, residents of the southern villages and the Lebanese army.

Salam: Time has Come to Activate Political Activity
Naharnet/November 19/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam said on Thursday that the time has come to restore political activity in Lebanon, urging the political forces to agree on facilitating the cabinet's work in wait for the “big political settlement that begins with electing a president.”“It is about time to end the current chaos and to restore the political activity by activating the work of the constitutional institutions,” said Salam at the opening of the Annual Arab Banking Conference. “Political forces are urged to agree to facilitate the cabinet activity in wait for the big political settlement that begins with electing a president,” he added. Lebanon has been without a president since the term of President Michel Suleiman ended in May 2014. Conflicts between rival political camps have thwarted all attempts aiming at electing a successor. “I hereby urge the political factions to communicate together and agree on what facilitates the cabinet's work for the good of the Lebanese,” the Premier stated. Pointing to the latest legislative session that addressed mainly financial draft laws, Salam said: “The parliament was able, in an exceptional session last week, to pass several laws which secured a legal umbrella to address issues of money laundering, transfer of funds and financing terrorism. “For its part, the executive authority will carry out its duties. There is a long list of important decisions that need to be made including adopting and implementing the plan to solve the trash management issue.”Prior to last week's meeting, parliament had not held a legislative session since November 2014. It held legislative session last week to tackle pending draft laws.

Report: Kataeb Ministers to Refrain from Signing Laws
Naharnet/November 19/15/The Kataeb Party has taken the decision to abstain from signing laws and projects at cabinet in protest against the ongoing presidential vacuum, reported the daily An Nahar on Thursday. The party deemed last week's legislative session as illegal due to the ongoing vacancy in the presidency, which therefore renders as “unconstitutional” addressing the decrees and laws that were tackled at the session.
Such a step will complicate the adoption of the laws, especially since some of them require the signatures of all ministers because the cabinet is playing the role of the president in the absence of a head of state, explained An Nahar. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls. The parliament held a legislative session last week to tackle pending draft laws. The meeting was boycotted by the Kataeb Party because it deems holding legislative sessions in the absence of a president as illegal. It said that parliament should have convened to elect a new head of state instead of approving draft laws. Prior to last week's meeting, parliament had not held a legislative session since November 2014.

Report: Electoral Law Committee to Hold First Meeting in December
Naharnet/November 19/15/A panel established on Wednesday to devise a new parliamentary electoral law will hold weekly meetings in order to resolve a dispute that has resulted in the extension of parliament's term on two occasions. The committee will hold its first meeting on December 1, revealed the daily An Nahar on Thursday. Its discussions will continue until mid-March 2016, which marks the beginning of parliament's regular session. The ten-man panel consists of MPs Michel Moussa, Ali Fayyad, Alain Aoun, Georges Adwan, Serge Toursarkissian, Marwan Hamadeh, Robert Fadel, Ahmed Fatfat, a representative of the Kataeb Party and another representing Marada Movement chief MP Suleiman Franjieh, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper Thursday. Deputy Speaker Farid Makari said after the committee's formation on Wednesday that it will not be tackling previously submitted draft electoral laws, but it will be addressing new ones. “It will seek an agreement on the characteristics of the new law … It will not study the 17 draft laws” that have so far been submitted to parliament, he said. Ongoing disputes among the rival political parties over the electoral law forced parliament to extend its term the first time in 2013 and a second time in 2014.

Report: IS Resorting to Brainwashing Youth to Make New Recruits
Naharnet/November 19/15/The Islamic State has resorted to forming “cluster cells” of members in order to expand its ranks and adopting religious “brainwashing” to recruit new members, reported As Safir newspaper on Thursday. Widely informed sources told the daily: “Confessions of some detainees have revealed that the IS has effective religious and security bodies that brainwash youths, who are mainly teenagers, in order to turn them into terrorist extremists within two months.” “Such practices have created surprise among the family members of these youths who are shocked by the change in their relatives from regular people carrying on with their normal lives to extremists,” they added. They gave the example of detainee Ibrahim al-Jamal, who “disappeared” from his family at around Eid al-Fitr in August before “reappearing” around Eid al-Adha in September, justifying his absence to having work in Beirut. He returned to his family a changed man, demanding that his sister wear the hijab and objecting to several of his father and his brothers' actions, continued the sources. His relatives said that he returned to them as a different person. He then disappeared again before being arrested with an explosive vest in his possession, said the sources. Al-Jamal was arrested about a week ago in al-Qobbeh neighborhood in the northern city of Tripoli. The same scenario was repeated with detainee Ahmed M., known as “Abou Othman,” who used to work as a valet at an up-scale restaurant in the Dam wal Farz area in Tripoli, reported As Safir.
His job allowed him to form ties with several clients, security, political, and social figures who frequented the restaurant on an almost daily basis. His coworkers did not sense any change in his manner, except that he had become more conservative religiously in recent weeks, continued the daily. Al-Jamal had at one point handed “Abou Othman” an explosive vest, but the latter did not recognize him because he was masked, said As Safir. “Abou Othman” was consequently indifferent to al-Jamal's arrest because he had not really known or recognized him, leading security forces in the case to conclude that the IS was establishing “cluster cells,” whose members do not know each other except through a certain code, explained the sources. Information obtained by As Safir said that “Abou Othman” was likely connected to the IS leadership in Syria's al-Raqa. He became affiliated with it through “Abou Baraa al-Lubnani,” a Lebanese IS member in the outskirts of the northeastern border region of Arsal who originally hails from Tripoli and is directly overseeing the actions of the IS in the North. Meanwhile, As Safir said that a security forces member has been found to be linked to the IS. Shawqi S. was tasked with receiving explosives and detonators from the outskirts of Arsal and delivering them to Tripoli. He made the deliveries while dressed in his military uniform in order to avoid raising suspicious. A quantity of bomb-making material and arms was seized Wednesday and a Lebanese suspect was captured as several Syrians were arrested in raids across the country, as part of a massive crackdown launched in the wake of the Dahieh blasts. The Internal Security Forces said four Lebanese were arrested and around 180 kilos of explosives and three suicide vests were seized during the raids that were staged Tuesday in the Tripoli districts of al-Dam wal Farz and al-Qobbeh.Weapons, steel balls, detonators, and fuses used in the making of suicide belts were also confiscated in the raids. The ISF noted that “more than 50 suicide vests” could have been produced from the seized bomb-making material. The four arrested on Tuesday are accused of having communicated with the al-Jamal. The five men are members of the IS network that carried out a twin suicide bombing last week in the Beirut southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh. The blasts killed 44 people and wounded 239 others, in the worst such attack in years.

Shehayyeb: Negotiations to Export Waste to Kick Off with European Firms
Naharnet/November 19/15/Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb revealed that negotiations with European companies to export Lebanon's garbage will kick off on Thursday, reported As Safir newspaper. He told the daily: “The negotiations rely on very critical calculations and technical details.”The negotiations will be carried out with four firms. “We are seeking to obtain the cheapest price with the best conditions,” he added without disclosing the names of the companies.“Exporting the waste should adhere to international laws that Lebanon is committed to,” continued the minister. “There are several technicalities that need to be agreed upon before taking the final decision to export the trash,” he explained, such as the weight and nature of the waste. The waste being addressed are those of Beirut and the Mount Lebanon region that are under the jurisdiction of the Sukleen garbage collection company, said Shehayyeb. The export will take place over an 18-month period, which should be followed with the implementation of the waste disposal plan that he had devised. A meeting was held on Wednesday between Prime Minister Tammam Salam, Shehayyeb, and the concerned technical committee to address the latest progress made in resolving the waste management crisis that erupted in July with the closure of the Naameh landfill.The landfill was shut with officials failing to find an alternative to it resulting in the pile up of garbage on the streets of the country and the emergence of arbitrary landfills that pose health and environmental hazards.

Militants Incur Casualties in Hizbullah 'Ambush' in Arsal Outskirts
Naharnet/November 19/15/ Two jihadist militants were killed and five others were wounded Thursday in a “Hizbullah ambush” in the outskirts of the northeastern border town of Arsal, media reports said. “A group of militants fell into an ambush set up by the mujahideen of the resistance in the Wadi al-Kheil area in Arsal's outskirts,” Hizbullah's al-Manar television said. Quoting “the militants' sources,” the TV network said “they have admitted that two of their members were killed and five others were wounded.” Meanwhile, Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) said the militants belong to al-Qaida-linked al-Nusra Front, also saying that two were killed and five others were wounded. Most of the Syrian regions near Lebanon's border were captured over the past year by Syrian regime troops and Hizbullah fighters. Militants from al-Nusra and the extremist Islamic State group are still however entrenched the outskirts of Arsal and other border areas. Syria's civil war has regularly spilled over into Lebanon, with Nusra and IS jihadists briefly overrunning Arsal in August 2014 after gunbattles with the Lebanese army. The jihadists withdrew after a ceasefire, but took with them several dozen hostages from the army and police, four of whom have since been executed.

Kuwait Busts Int'l IS-linked Cell Led by Lebanese Mastermind
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/Kuwaiti security authorities have busted an international cell led by a Lebanese man that was sending air defense systems and funds to the Islamic State group, Kuwait's interior ministry said Thursday. The cell's Lebanese chief, identified as Osama Mohammed Khayat, confessed that he raised funds and provided logistical support for the group, which has carried out deadly attacks in Lebanon and France in the past week, the ministry said. He acted as coordinator for the IS in Kuwait and arranged arms deals and FN6 portable air defense systems from Ukraine, which were shipped to IS in Syria through Turkey. The ministry did not provide details about the size of the arms deals. Besides the Lebanese mastermind, authorities arrested three Syrians, an Egyptian and a Kuwaiti and said four others were outside Kuwait -- two Syrians and two Australians of Lebanese origin. Several suspected IS members and sympathizers were tried in the Gulf emirate for a suicide bombing in June claimed by the group. A court sentenced seven men to death and jailed eight others to between two and 15 years for assisting the Saudi bomber. An appeals court is to issue its verdict in the case on December 13. Earlier this month, Kuwait's lower court sentenced five men to 10 years in jail each for raising funds for IS. They were charged with raising about 400,000 Kuwaiti dinars ($1.3 million) and sending it to IS, which has seized control of large parts of Syria and Iraq and carried out attacks throughout the Middle East. Over the past year, Kuwaiti courts have issued several rulings against IS supporters.

US House of Representatives honors Beirut terror victims
Now Lebanon/November 19/15/BEIRUT – The US House of Representatives has observed a moment of silence in remembrance for the victims of the deadly terror attack that rocked Beirut last week and in solidarity with Lebanon. Representative Darrell Issa took to the floor of the legislature Wednesday to request the remembrance, which was introduced as a resolution by Richard Hanna, a fellow lawmaker of Lebanese descent. “Over 400 murders have been claimed by ISIS in the period of less than two weeks,” Issa—a Republican from California—said in reference to not only the Beirut bombings, but also the deadly attacks in Paris as well as the bombing of a Russian airliner over Egypt’s Sinai. Issa then thanked the House of Representatives for “this opportunity to remember the innocent lives lost at the hands of ISIS terrorists,” and urged the Barack Obama administration to do “everything in its power to bring those responsible to justice.”In a separate statement issued prior to the commemoration, Debbie Dingell—who represents the city of Dearborn that hosts a large population of Lebanese immigrants—paid tribute to her constituents that died in the twin suicide blasts that hit Beirut’s Bourj al-Barajneh. “For me these were attacks on my town, my community,” she said. Three Dearborn residents--Leila Taleb, Hussein Mostapha and Leila Mazloum—were killed in the November 12 blasts in south Beirut that left over 45 people dead. “In this time of conflict, it is more important than ever that the House of Representatives join together to condemn the violent attacks in Beirut, Paris and around the world,” Representative Richard Hanna said in a statement. “We express solidarity with the peoples of Lebanon and France and pledge our continued support to helping all of our allies confront and ultimately defeat radical extremism.”

Is ISIS looking to move in on the Arsal-Ras Baalbek area?
Nicholas Blanford/Now Lebanon/November 19/15
On 2 August last year, a combined force of some 700 militants, mainly drawn from Jabhat al-Nusra and ISIS, stormed into the eastern Bekaa town of Arsal, overrunning army positions and triggering a bitter battle lasting several days. Eventually the militants retreated, beaten back by the Rangers and Air Assault regiments and units of the 5th Intervention Brigade. But they took with them a large amount of captured weapons and ammunition as well as 36 soldiers and police, of whom 25 still remain hostage. The Lebanese Army has since imposed a ring of steel around Arsal with fortified outposts, strengthened checkpoints and hilltop observation towers. But according to residents in Arsal, the militants have slipped back in and are now the dominant influence in the town. “Daesh [ISIS] and Jabhat al-Nusra are all over Arsal and treating the people very badly,” says one resident, an active supporter of Syrian rebel groups who refused to be identified because of the security situation in the town. He added that there are tensions between ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra and they have clashed in areas outside Arsal. Sources close to the army say that soldiers manning checkpoints on the roads and tracks that radiate out from Arsal are strict in allowing or denying access. But if no weapons are found in a vehicle and the occupants have valid identification there is little reason to deny them passage even if in fact they are Islamist militants.
The discovery over the weekend by the Internal Security Forces of 10 explosive-rigged vehicles and a larger number of explosive-rigged motorcycles suggests that considerable planning has been underway for some time to cause instability in the town or directed from the town. That belief is strengthened by the arrest of Mohammed Ahmad Hujairy, a self-confessed member of the Islamic State in Qalamoun, who stands accused of assembling some of the bomb-rigged vehicles and being behind the deadly suicide attack on 5 November targeting a meeting of the Committee of Qalamoun Scholars that left four people dead. He is also believed to be responsible for a second bomb attack the next day, when an explosive-rigged motorcycle blew up beside an army armored personnel carrier, wounding five soldiers. The motorcycle bombs were also reportedly intended to target senior figures in Arsal.
The seizure of car bombs and arrests have once more raised in the media the notion that the militants in Arsal were seeking to break out to reach Tripoli and Akkar to establish some form of stronghold on the Mediterranean coast. However, the likelihood of such a scheme achieving success is even less likely now than in the past. The army has locked down the transport routes leading out of Arsal with its fortified checkpoints. Ras Baalbek, eight kilometers north of Arsal, is similarly protected by the army, making it almost impossible for a car bomb to be driven undetected into the Bekaa, let alone large numbers of armed militants. To the south of Arsal, the terrain backing on to the Shiite-populated villages of Younine and Nahle is under Hezbollah’s control. On Thursday, a Hezbollah unit ambushed militants in Wadi Khayl, south of Arsal, killing two and capturing several others.
Even if militants were able to blast their way through army lines around Arsal to reach the Bekaa, they would then have to traverse extremely hostile territory to reach Tripoli and the coast. The northern Bekaa is the fief not only of Hezbollah but powerful Shiite tribes who can be expected to ferociously defend their villages against marauding Sunni jihadists. There are only three drivable routes meandering across the mountains linking the northern Bekaa to the Tripoli region and Akkar. All it would take to thwart access to the coast is a bulldozed pile of rocks cutting each route. Added to that, the roads pass through territory riddled with Hezbollah training camps and populated by hostile Shiite clans.
Still, the Bourj al-Barajneh suicide bomb attacks last week and the subsequent arrests of around a dozen linked suspects and the seizure of some 300 kilograms of explosive and associated bomb-making equipment would appear to confirm fears that ISIS is seeking to destabilize Lebanon, ending a 17-month hiatus in bomb attacks. Arsal’s role in all this is still unclear, but perhaps we should be looking for answers to the east of the town rather than to the west. According to residents of Arsal and sources close to Hezbollah, ISIS still has the ability to traverse the border to reach areas around Jarajeer and Qarah in the northern Qalamoun. In a possibly connected development, ISIS at the beginning of the month advanced west from the town of Qarytayn in Syria’s eastern Homs Governorate to seize the villages of Mheen and Hawarin, 16 kilometers to the west, and then attacked Sadad, 14 kilometers northwest of Mheen.
It is unclear why ISIS embarked upon a frog-jumping advance west of Qarytayn now. Heading west further extends its supply lines at a time when Russian aircraft are roaming the skies above Syria. The advance did at one point bring ISIS to within 14 kilometers of the Damascus-Homs highway, but it is doubtful that the group was seeking to cut the critical route, which connects the capital to the Mediterranean coast. Any threat to the highway would immediately draw a strong response from the Syrian regime. Indeed, ISIS was unable to take Sadad and on Tuesday reportedly lost control of Hawarin.
Sadad is populated by Assyrian Christians and its defense was aided by Russia airlifting reinforcements from the Assyrian Sotoro militia from Hasake in the northeast. A perhaps inadvertently-too-revealing televised briefing on Tuesday by the Russian Defense Ministry to Russian President Vladimir Putin showed a map that marked the Russian army’s 120th artillery brigade equipped with 152mm howitzers deployed in the vicinity of Sadad. On Sunday, Russian helicopters attacked suspected ISIS targets in the region of Qarah in the northern Qalamoun and possibly even on Lebanese soil east of Ras Baalbek.
While ISIS appears for now to be on the back foot in Mheen, perhaps the explanation for punching west of Qarytayn in the first place was to hook up with their brothers roaming the hills around Qarah and across the border in the Ras Baalbek-Arsal area. It is speculative, for sure, but if a logistical supply line could be established it might strengthen ISIS’s influence in the Arsal-Ras Baalbek area. The Qarytayn move combined with the recent suicide bomb attack against the Committee of Qalamoun Scholars and reports that Hujairy’s cell was planning to hit senior Arsal figures suggests that ISIS may be attempting to secure the town as a base of operations, using marginally more subtlety than its headlong all-guns-blazing charge of August last year.
**Nicholas Blanford is Beirut correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor and author of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel.
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentary/566253-is-isis-looking-to-move-in-on-the-arsal-ras-baalbek-area

Trashed
Ana Maria Luca/Now Lebanon/November 19/15
The trash has been in Sed el Bouchrieh’s borderline with the Bourj Hammoud and Dekwaneh suburbs of Beirut for five years. It wasn’t very obvious that the municipality had a trash collection point there. The facility was fenced in and passersby and residents could not see what went on inside. The semi-industrial neighborhood hosts several small factories, workshops and car repair shops and is always crowded with customers in search of bargains among the chaotic traffic. It’s also expanding, with several construction sites in the immediate vicinity erecting tall office buildings. Very few people noticed the trash until it started to grow into a heap three to four months ago, when the government closed down the Naameh landfill that collected waste from Beirut and Mount Lebanon. The tip of the heap has reached well over the fences surrounding it — its peak now looks down on the building that shelters the personnel offices.
“The mountain has been here for three, maybe four months,” says Elias, a man in his late 20s who runs a car part shop with his father across the street. It reeks, but Elias says he doesn’t even notice it anymore. Nobody wears a mask. “It’s been here for months, we got used to it. It’s the municipality that runs the place. You can go up to the factory — I think you can see the whole mountain from there. Imagine that this is like and iceberg: there is as much in the ground. It’s like a building with a deep foundation. But what can we do? It’s political,” he says bitterly.
The heart of the problem
The trash crisis in Lebanon is not getting any closer to a solution, with piles of uncollected waste just like the one in Sed el Bauchrieh growing around Beirut and its suburbs. Agriculture Minister Akram Shehayyeb revealed that negotiations with European companies to export Lebanon's garbage are to kick of today and the government is negotiating with four companies for the lowest price possible. He also explained that it’s also a matter of what kind of waste would be sent abroad and in what quantities, and that it was a matter of political consensus. “My proposal was obstructed for political reasons as well as reasons linked to various areas in the country,” Shehayyeb said today. “There are other causes that I will not divulge,” he added. A committee formed at the Health Ministry issued a series of scientific recommendations at the beginning of November pledging to monitor the repercussions of the crisis on public health. “What I can say is that the damage did happen and it’s not small, but until this moment it can’t be specified — meaning that we can’t say what its extent is, but we are trying to monitor its effects,” Health Minister Wael Abou Faour said. The committee was formed right after heavy rain flooded the streets of the Lebanese capital, dragging piles of domestic waste accumulated over weeks and raising concerns of pollutantscontaminating household water supplies. It also came as media reports signaled a higher number of patients hospitalized with conditions that could be related to the trash crisis: diarrhea, nausea, allergies, vomiting and abdominal pain were just a few of large number of symptoms. But the effects of a prolonged trash crisis might be more serious in the long term than allergies or even cholera.
The land of poison
Italians living in the Campania region have been living for decades what the Lebanese have been going through in the past four months. According to areport by Legambiente, an Italian environmental organization, Campania has a poisoned environment with over 5,000 illegal waste sites. The waste crisis in Campania started in 1994, when the Italian Council of Ministers declared the landfills in the region saturated and incapable of accepting any more municipal solid waste. But the crisis had been there for many years already, according to Amalia de Simone, an investigative journalist at www.corirere.it, who has been covering the trash crisis in her native Naples and Campania region for over a decade. “In fact, this is not just about waste,” she told NOW. “It began many years earlier when entrepreneurs Northern Italy agreed with the clans of the Camorra [an infamous crime syndicate in Campania] to spill industrial and toxic waste in Campania, in illegal dumps as well as in landfills, that were authorized to accept only municipal waste.”Business owners were saving money on waste treatment and the mafia families made money, with the tacit agreement of politicians, administrators, and consultants who turned a blind eye on the problem. “In some areas of Campania, textile waste, tannery, chemical and construction waste were and still are dumped and set on fire. The fires cause toxic clouds that poison the environment,” she said. The waste problem has never been really solved: commissioners were appointed, corruption investigations started, candidates spoke about it in electoral campaigns, but dumps were opened and turned into heaps of waste that over the years have rotted and started to infiltrate leachate in the soil and water. Landfills remain saturated, agricultural lands are poisoned. “Naples is no longer invaded by trash because of recycling, the creation of ecological islands and the transfer of some waste outside the region,” de Simone said. But it's just to hide the dust under the carpet. In short, the problem of municipal waste is not visible now, but the spill from toxic industrial waste is very serious.”
The trash-related health problems
In some areas of Campania, especially close to landfills, there was an increase in tumors, cancer and respiratory diseases. Children are the most vulnerable, reports say, as ministers have blamed the “wrong lifestyle of these people” rather than the toxic spills. “Unfortunately, there were already hundreds of deaths,” de Simone explained. “The problem is that it is difficult in both scientific and legal terms to establish proof of a relationship between the garbage problem and the diseases, also because the health authorities have never opened a cancer registry. Families living near landfills [authorized or unauthorized] could not get any compensation, even when the judge could identify those responsible for the toxic spills.” What is worse, she says, is that the waste problem hasn’t been contained; it is constantly spreading. Since Campania is already ‘the land of poison,’ the enterprises reoriented towards other regions to dump the waste. “There are cities such as Brescia where a worrying level of radioactivity has been detected,” she said. “In short, the problem of waste and pollution is attributed mainly to Campania, but in fact is an issue that concerns many areas in Italy, even unexpected areas such as Tuscany and Umbria.”
Meanwhile, in Beirut
Nareg, a man in his late 40s who owns a shop across the street from the Sed el Bauchrieh trash heap, is not as resigned as some of his neighbors are. “We have fights with the people from the municipality and the guys who come with the trucks every single day. There is always a fight over there, at the gate. We’re going to get sick. All of us. They bring at least 10 trucks every day! Look at all these flies!” he says, his voice rising in ager as he speaks. Beyond the fence of the compound, a dozen workers wearing white medical masks and gloves stand on piles of waste and stuff it all in plastic white bags. “We were told not to burn it. So we’re putting it in bags to prevent the smell from spreading,” says the manager, a short man wearing soiled jeans, with a shrug. In his office, he turns down the volume of the television and points at something outside, right under the window: “Look, we have a recycling machine. But it doesn’t work right now. It’s broken.”He says that at the municipality they are doing what they can in the situation: people from the surrounding neighborhoods prefer to bring the trash here than leaving it on the streets. Before the Naameh landfill closed, Sukleen trucks would pick it up every day. But now they have nowhere to take it. “What we can do is to pack it and not let the smell spread,” the manager says, adding that they have protection suits for the workers as well as masks and boots. But none of the workers wanted to wear them. “They prefer the usual medical masks,” he shrugs. “What can we do? We have to wait for the politicians to agree.”
https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/566252-trashed

Toronto Muslim charged with carrying concealed meat cleaver into Parliament
Jiad Watch/November 18, 2015/You know how this kind of thing can happen: how often have you rushed out of the house, late for where you need to be, and forget that you’re carrying your meat cleaver? But not to worry: it had nothing to do with terrorism. He’s mentally ill, you see. Authorities repeat that claim with increasing frequency, never pausing to ponder why Muslims who are mentally ill tend to do things like put on suicide vests and carry meat cleavers into Parliament much more frequently than mentally ill non-Muslims do. the-centre-block-on-parliament-hill-for-story-on-tenders-bei

“Toronto man, 56, charged with carrying concealed cleaver into Parliament,”
by Andrew Seymour, Ottawa Citizen, November 18, 2015 /A Toronto man who allegedly tried to carry a meat cleaver onto Parliament Hill is to undergo a psychiatric assessment. A lawyer for Yasin Ali asked for the assessment in court Wednesday after the 56-year-old appeared by video from the courthouse cellblock on a charge of carrying a concealed weapon. He will remain in jail until his next appearance on Friday, when he is to appear in court in person. A man had a ticket to visit the Peace Tower, and was in line to go through the visitors’ entrance at about 11:30 a.m. on Tuesday when a House of Commons security guard asked him to open his coat. The guard found the man was concealing a large cleaver with an approximately six-inch-long blade. The man never made it as far as the metal detectors. RCMP Commissioner Bob Paulson told reporters that Ali is known to authorities, but “not in the sort of counter-terrorism context.”In fact, Paulson does not believe that the man’s actions were politically motivated or an act of terror. “I understand it is less a concern around so-called national security considerations as it is a mental health issue,” he said. “There is a history of behaviours that are odd.”” Paulson added that he was “very pleased with the response of the security service. That’s exactly what they are supposed to do. They did that. They did it well.”Ali’s court appearance Wednesday was slightly delayed after it became apparent he might need the assistance of an interpreter as he speaks Somali Arabic. It is not known why he was in Ottawa or on Parliament Hill….

Al Azhar and ISIS: Cause and Effect
By Raymond Ibrahim/November 18/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/11/19/raymond-ibrahim-al-azhar-and-isis-cause-and-effect/
Sheikh Muhammad Abdullah Nasr, a scholar of Islamic law and graduate of Egypt’s Al Azhar University—regularly touted as the world’s most prestigious Islamic university—recently exposed his alma mater in a televised interview. After being asked why Al Azhar, which is in the habit of denouncing secular thinkers as un-Islamic, refuses to denounce the Islamic State as un-Islamic, Sheikh Nasr said: It can’t [condemn the Islamic State as un-Islamic]. The Islamic State is a byproduct of Al Azhar’s programs. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic? Al Azhar says there must be a caliphate and that it is an obligation for the Muslim world [to establish it]. Al Azhar teaches the law of apostasy and killing the apostate. Al Azhar is hostile towards religious minorities, and teaches things like not building churches, etc. Al Azhar upholds the institution of jizya [extracting tribute from religious minorities]. Al Azhar teaches stoning people. So can Al Azhar denounce itself as un-Islamic? Nasr joins a growing chorus of critics of Al Azhar. Last September, while discussing how the Islamic State burns some of its victims alive—most notoriously, a Jordanian pilot—Egyptian journalist Yusuf al-Husayni remarked on his satellite program that “The Islamic State is only doing what Al Azhar teaches… and the simplest example is Ibn Kathir’s Beginning and End.”Ibn Kathir is one of Sunni Islam’s most renowned scholars; his Beginning and End is a magisterial history of Islam and a staple at Al Azhar. It is also full of Muslims, beginning with Muhammad, committing the sorts of atrocities that the Islamic State and other Islamic organizations and persons commit. In February, Egyptian political writer Dr. Khalid al-Montaser revealed that Al Azhar was encouraging enmity for non-Muslims, specifically Coptic Christians, and even inciting for their murder. Marveled Montaser: Is it possible at this sensitive time — when murderous terrorists rest on texts and understandings of takfir [accusing Muslims of apostasy], murder, slaughter, and beheading — that Al Azhar magazine is offering free of charge a book whose latter half and every page — indeed every few lines — ends with “whoever disbelieves [non-Muslims] strike off his head”? The prestigious Islamic university—which co-hosted U.S. President Obama’s 2009 “A New Beginning” speech—has even issued a free booklet dedicated to proving that Christianity is a “failed religion.” In short, the phenomenon known as “ISIS” is not a temporal aberration within Islam but rather a byproduct of what is considered normative thinking for Al Azhar—the Islamic world’s most authoritative university.

IAEA: Iran increased stock of uranium
Yitzhak Benhorin/Ynetnews/News Agencies/Published: 11.19.15
Iran's stockpile of of low-enriched uranium has spiked in the last three months; Diplomat: increase is a normal fluctuation.
Iran has increased its stockpile of low-enriched uranium in the last three months, despite the nuclear agreement stipulating that Tehran must reduce its quantities to a level sufficient for research but not for creating a nuclear weapon.
The assessment was in a report presented Wednesday by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to members of the UN Security Council and a restricted number of other nations. A senior diplomat, however, said the increase was a normal fluctuation. "There is nothing special in that. It's the normal way," he said.The quantity of low-enriched uranium has increased by 460.2kg in the past three months to 8,305.6kg, the report said. Under the deal with major powers, that stockpile must be slashed to no more than 300kg. The IAEA dsid Iran has started cutting back on nuclear programs, which could have been reengineered into making weapons, in line with the deal reached with the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and China, signed in July. Implementation day for the July 14 nuclear deal was October 18. Since then, the report shows that in spite of the increase of its low-enriched uranium stockpile, Iran has reduced the number of centrifuges it uses to enrich uranium, a potential pathway to nuclear arms. The report said 11,308 centrifuges were standing at Iran's main enrichment center as of November 15, more than 3,000 fewer than before the implementation day. It also noted reductions at a smaller facility. The report also said Iran had moved around 4,500 centrifuges from their positions at the Fordow and Natanz enrichment sites between October 18 and November 15. The IAEA also said that Iran has disconnected almost a quarter of its uranium-enriching centrifuges in less than a month suggesting it is racing to implement the agreement. Officials have been speculating about the speed at which Iran can dismantle the centrifuges, sensitive machines that spin at supersonic speeds to purify uranium to levels at which it can be used as fuel in power stations or, potentially, weapons. Disconnecting and moving the machines is a time-consuming process if it is to be done without damaging the equipment, making it one of the steps most likely to delay implementation of the deal, and therefore the lifting of sanctions. "They have been dismantling centrifuges that did not contain hexafluoride," a senior diplomat said, referring to uranium hexafluoride, the feedstock for centrifuges. "Dismantling centrifuges that have or have had hexafluoride is a much more complicated thing than the clean ones."How fast can they go? The speed at which Iran dismantles the centrifuges is central to the question of whether Tehran can implement the deal before parliamentary elections in February. Under the July deal, Iran agreed to reduce its number of installed centrifuges to around 6,100 from 19,000, according to the United States. Of the remaining 6,100, only about 5,100 will be used to enrich uranium. Iran was also carrying out an annual inventory at all its enrichment sites, meaning that enrichment had stopped across the country, the report said. "This is the first time at this point in time that none of the three enrichment plants are operating," the senior diplomat said.

Iran Says 'Path Clear' for Nuclear Deal Implementation
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/Iran's atomic agency chief said Thursday the path was clear for final implementation of a nuclear deal with world powers after "guarantees" were received on the redesign of a controversial reactor. Ali Akbar Salehi's remarks came a day after U.N. inspectors reported that Iran had started to dismantle parts of its nuclear program in compliance with the agreement struck in July with the United States and five other leading states. However his statement spoke mostly of planned alterations to Iran's heavy water reactor at Arak, which under the deal is to have its core removed and filled with concrete so that it cannot produce substantial quantities of plutonium. The changes, made with foreign help, will cut off a possible route to an atomic bomb, with the reactor being used for research. All its spent fuel is to be shipped out of the country. Iran has always denied seeking to develop a nuclear weapon. Salehi, quoted by the official IRNA news agency, said foreign ministers of the P5+1 group -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the U.S. plus Germany -- had now signed a formal document relating to the Arak reactor's "redesign and modernization.""The other side has guaranteed to cooperate. The path is clear for full implementation of JCPOA," Salehi said, referring to the nuclear deal by its official name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. In exchange for scaling back its atomic activities the six world powers have agreed to lift nuclear-related sanctions imposed on the Islamic republic. The July accord was formally adopted by all parties on October 18 and "Implementation Day", when it enters into force, is expected in the coming months. On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has started to remove centrifuges -- giant spinning machines that enrich uranium -- and related atomic infrastructure at its Natanz and Fordo nuclear sites. The IAEA report said Iran had taken out 4,500 centrifuges, around a quarter of its estimated 19,000 total, showing Iran has some way to go before all its commitments are met. Under the deal Iran is to keep 5,000 active centrifuges. No preparatory work has yet taken place at Arak, the IAEA's report added, and Iran's stock of enriched uranium grew to about 8.3 tonnes (18,300 pounds), an increase of 460 kilos. Asked about the IAEA report, Salehi said the necessary work was "time consuming" but under way. "It pointed out that Iran has met its commitment without deviation," Salehi said of the report. As well as verifying that Iran downscales its activities, the Vienna-based IAEA is still probing allegations that at least until 2003, Iran conducted research into developing nuclear weapons. The U.N. agency aims to compile a final report on these so-called "possible military dimensions" of Iran's activities by December 15, although diplomats say it could be released earlier. Iran says the allegations are false and based on bogus intelligence.

Clinton Backs Sweeping U.S.-led Global Fight against IS
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/Hillary Clinton called Thursday for a U.S.-led global fight to defeat the Islamic State group and shut down its flow of fighters, propaganda and weapons in the wake of the Paris attacks. The lead Democratic presidential candidate outlined a three-pronged strategy to defeat IS, disrupt and dismantle the infrastructure that facilitates the flow of arms, fighters and propaganda across the world, and to bolster international defenses against radical jihadism. It would require every pillar of American power -- military, diplomacy and economic development -- she said, in a sweeping speech that called on Arab and European allies to do more. "The entire world must be part of this fight, but we must lead it," she told the Council on Foreign Relations think tank in New York. She called for a more effective and broader U.S.-led coalition to intensify air strikes on IS targets in Syria and Iraq, an intelligence surge and a no-fly zone to stop the Syrian regime bombing civilians. The relatively hawkish Clinton stopped short of calling for a large-scale U.S. military deployment on the ground, instead demanding greater support for local and regional ground forces. She called for political pressure to lay the groundwork for a second Sunni awakening in Iraq to join the fight and said the United States needed to work with Russia to enforce a no-fly zone.
Twice she singled out Turkey.
"We need to get Turkey to stop bombing Kurdish fighters in Syria who are battling ISIS and become a full partner," she said while also calling on Ankara to lock down its porous border with Syria. The Saudis, Qataris and others need to stop citizens from directly funding extremist organizations, and the U.N. Security Council needs to update its terror sanctions list, she said. After the 9/11 attacks, she said the United States had made a lot of progress breaking down barriers but that Europe was "way behind." "The United States must work with Europe to dramatically and immediately improve intelligence sharing and coordination," she said. "European nations don't always alert each other when they turn away a suspected jihadist or when a passport is stolen," she said. "Too often the dots never get connected. I appreciate how hard this is, but this has to change."Turning to encryption, she called on Silicon Valley "not to view government as an adversary" and to "develop solutions that will keep us safe and protect our privacy."She also spoke about the need to combat radical jihadism more broadly and that ordinary Muslims cannot be considered a threat. "We are in a contest of ideas against an ideology of hate and we have to win. Let's be clear though, Islam is not our adversary," she said.

Hungary Orders Deportation of British Muslim 'Hate Preacher'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/A Hungarian judge ordered on Thursday the deportation to Britain of two British nationals who spent time in jail for financing terrorism and who were detained trying to enter Romania. Trevor Brooks, 44, also known as Abu Izzadeen, a Muslim activist dubbed a "hate preacher" by the British press, and Simon Keeler, 40, were not allowed to leave Britain without permission. Hungarian police apprehended the pair on Saturday on a train on the Hungary-Romanian border because they did not have correct documentation and later realized they were subject to European arrest warrants. Both men, appearing in separate hearings in Budapest flanked by armed guards on Thursday, were jailed for financing terrorism and were released in 2009. It was unclear what the planned final destination of the men had been, with Hungarian media speculating that they intended to travel to Syria via Bulgaria and Turkey. Keeler told judge Eva Varhegyi he was on his way to Turkey to join his family, and that security measures imposed against him in London were "too tough." Asked by the judge if he understood the ruling, Brooks replied "igen" ("yes" in Hungarian). "It's a shame you won't stay in Hungary longer to learn more Hungarian," Varhegyi said. "I'll come back one day, legally," Brooks replied, complaining however about the "awful food" he was given in custody and that the tap water "makes me ill."

Obama Says Assad Must Go to End Syria Civil War
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/U.S. President Barack Obama on Thursday said Syria's civil war would not end unless Bashar Assad leaves power, discounting suggestions the Middle Eastern leader could take part in future elections. "I do not foresee a situation in which we can end the civil war in Syria while Assad remains in power," Obama said on the sidelines of a trade summit in Manila. Assad's fate has become a key stumbling block to peace in Syria and a point of contention between the West and Assad's backers in Moscow and Tehran. Obama's comments come days after meeting Assad's top backer, Russian President Vladimir Putin, which appeared to see the two sides edge closer to an agreement. Russia, seeking to maintain its foothold in Syria, has strongly opposed Assad's ouster. But Obama insisted Syrians would not accept Assad staying in power, after a brutal civil war that has seen his regime carry out indiscriminate attacks on civilians. "Even if I said that was okay, I still don't think it would actually work," Obama said. "You could not get the Syrian people -- the majority of them -- to agree to that kind of outcome."Ending the four year war in Syria has taken on increasing urgency as the Islamic State group has gained more and more territory, assets and recruits. The militants are suspected of carrying out large-scale terror attacks in Paris, Beirut and the bombing of a Russian airliner, killing hundreds of civilians

Paris Attacks 'Mastermind' Killed in Police Raid
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/
The Islamic State jihadist suspected of orchestrating the Paris attacks was killed in a major police raid, prosecutors confirmed Thursday, as French lawmakers extended emergency powers imposed after the carnage.Abdelhamid Abaaoud, a Belgian of Moroccan origin linked to a series of extremist plots in Europe over the past two years, died in Wednesday's assault by elite police units on an apartment in northern Paris. A second person also died in the raid, but their identity remains unclear. The 28-year-old Abaaoud was thought to have been in Syria -- where he had boasted of planning attacks on the West -- and his presence in France raises troubling questions about a breakdown in intelligence and border security. Confirmation that such a high-profile figure from the Islamic State group had managed to slip undetected into France prompted a sharp response from Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve, who demanded Europe step up its response to the terror threat. Abaaoud was involved in four out of six attack plots foiled in France this year, he said, but Paris had received "no information" from other European countries about his arrival on the continent."It is urgent that Europe wakes up, organizes itself and defends itself against the terrorist threat," he told reporters. The Islamist was the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by Belgium -- where a court had in July sentenced him in absentia to 20 years in prison for recruiting jihadists for Syria. It was only on November 16, three days after the Paris bloodbath, that "intelligence services of a country outside Europe indicated they had knowledge of his presence in Greece," the minister said, without specifying which country.
Abaaoud was linked to a foiled April plot to attack a church near Paris, Cazeneuve said, and police were also probing possible links to a thwarted assault on a high-speed train from Amsterdam to Paris in August. As the Paris probe widened to countries across Europe, Belgian police arrested nine people in Brussels, seven of them in raids linked to a suicide bomber who blew himself up outside the French national stadium last Friday, prosecutors said. Italy was also hunting five suspects after an FBI tip-off about possible jihadist attacks on landmark sites including St Peter's Cathedral in the Vatican, the foreign minister said. - A miraculous escape - Paris prosecutor Francois Molins said handprint analysis was used to confirm the identity of Abaaoud's body, which was found riddled with bullets in the rubble of the shattered building in Saint-Denis following a seven-hour police siege.
Molins said it was not yet clear whether Abaaoud blew himself up. Another body found after the ferocious shootout is thought to be that of a woman who detonated an explosives vest. Eight suspects were arrested in the massive Saint-Denis raid, which took place after authorities received a tip-off about Abaaoud on Monday, but another key suspect, Salah Abdeslam, remains unaccounted for. Abdeslam is thought to be one of the only surviving members of the group of assailants behind the Paris massacre. His suicide-bomber brother Brahim Abdeslam blew himself up at a café without killing anyone. Chilling CCTV footage has emerged in which a gunman can be seen pointing his weapon at a woman lying on the floor of a cafe -- but it jams, allowing her to flee. Prime Minister Manuel Valls hailed Abaaoud's death but warned that France still faced threats as lawmakers voted to extend an extraordinary package of security measures for three months."We must not rule anything out. There is also the risk from chemical or biological weapons," Valls said.
The measures include allowing police to carry weapons when they are off duty and use them in the event of an attack -- providing they wear a police armband to avoid "any confusion", according to a directive seen by AFP. French MPs also voted to give the government the power to block websites and social media accounts promoting or inciting terrorist acts.At least 129 people were killed in the shootings and suicide bombings that targeted a concert hall, bars and restaurants and the Stade de France national stadium. French President Francois Hollande spoke to his U.S. counterpart Barack Obama by phone to brief him on the attacks probe. Warning in May?U.S. intelligence meanwhile published a report showing it warned in May that IS could carry out the kind of large-scale coordinated attacks seen in Paris, specifically referring to Abaaoud as a ringleader of Belgian plotters. IS released a new video threatening New York, and specifically Times Square, although police said there was no "current and specific" threat. France is coming to terms with being attacked for a second time in less than year. In January, jihadist gunmen killed 17 people at Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine, on the streets and in a Jewish supermarket. Hours after Hollande urged the nation not to resort to anti-Muslim or anti-Semitic reprisals in the wake of the attacks, a Jewish teacher was stabbed and wounded in Marseille by three people shouting anti-Semitic obscenities and expressing support for IS.

France Says Russia Open to Cooperation in IS Fight in Syria as Moscow Demands Sovereignty Be Respected
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Thursday that Russia was sincere in wanting to cooperate in the fight against the Islamic State group in Syria."There is an opening, so to speak, with the Russians. We think they are sincere and we must bring together all our forces," Fabius told France Inter radio. Relations between France and Russia have deteriorated since last year's Ukraine crisis. But both countries have suffered major terror attacks at the hands of IS in recent weeks -- the coordinated gun and bomb attacks last Friday in Paris, and the bombing of a Russian passenger jet over Egypt last month. President Francois Hollande called this week for the "bringing together of all those who can realistically fight against this terrorist army in a large and unique coalition", while his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin ordered his navy in the Mediterranean to establish contact with its French counterparts and work together "as allies". Later on Thursday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Moscow is ready to work with the Western coalition fighting the IS if its members respect Syria's sovereignty. "We...are ready for practical cooperation with those countries which are part of the coalition and are ready to develop with them such forms of coordination that of course would respect Syria's sovereignty and the prerogatives of the Syrian leadership," Lavrov said in an interview with state-run Radio of Russia. "I am convinced that such forms can be found if we take a pragmatic approach." Russia first launched air strikes on Syria in September at the request of its long-standing ally President Bashar Assad, while a U.S.-led coalition of countries opposed to the Syrian strongman is conducting a separate air campaign against IS. In the aftermath of the Paris attacks on Friday, French President Francois Hollande called this week for a broad anti-IS coalition, echoing an earlier call made by Putin made at the U.N. General Assembly in September. Hollande said he would next week discuss his proposal with U.S. President Barack Obama and Putin, who has ordered his navy in the Mediterranean to establish contact with its French counterparts and work together "as allies". Putin has been seeking to capitalize on shifting dynamics in the West following the Paris carnage and the bombing of a Russian passenger plane over Sinai in October, arguing that Russia and the West should unite against a common enemy. Lavrov said he first detected a change in the Western position after Putin called for a broad coalition to fight the IS jihadists in Syria. On Wednesday Russia submitted a revised draft U.N. resolution on fighting the IS group that France said could be partially included in its own Security Council proposal. "Right now sensible politicians are putting secondary things aside and understand that it's necessary to focus attention on the priority: to prevent efforts by ISIL to conquer positions on the huge territory on Earth," Lavrov said, using another acronym for IS.
Lavrov reiterated Russia's traditional stance that Assad protected the interests of "a significant part of Syrian society" therefore it would not be possible to reach a settlement "without his participation.""Our Western partners realized the lack of prospects for the approach that many of them had taken," Russia's top diplomat said, referring to the insistence in the West that Assad should immediately step down.He also praised signs of rapprochement between Russia and the West following months of tensions over Ukraine. "Our Western partners have put some formats on ice," he said, referring to venues such as the NATO-Russia Council. "But this process is already returning to normal, the work of these mechanisms is resuming." Also on Thursday, Russia's chief of general staff held talks with his French counterpart on combating the IS in Syria, in the first such contact since the start of the Ukraine conflict last year. Valery Gerasimov and Pierre de Villiers "discussed on the phone the coordination of military troops' actions against IS terrorists in Syria," the Russian defense ministry said in a statement, adding that the conversation lasted an hour. The two military chiefs "exchanged their evaluations of the current situation in the country" following calls to unite efforts against IS group by presidents Putin and Hollande. "The terrorist acts in Paris and on board of the Russian passenger plane are links of one chain," Gerasimov was shown by state television as saying on the phone to his French colleague. "Our grief and our wrath must help join efforts of Russia and France in the fight against international terrorism."Putin on Tuesday ordered his navy in the eastern Mediterranean to cooperate with a group of French ships set to arrive in the area Friday and "treat them as allies," which would be the first such joint operation since World War II. De Villiers and Jean-Yves Le Drian, the defense minister of NATO member France, had no contact with Russian counterparts since Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in March 2014, according to a French source familiar with the situation.
Moscow and Paris announced close cooperation against the Islamic State group following the bombing of a Russian airliner over Egypt and the attacks in the French capital, which killed 224 and 129 people respectively.

French PM Warns of Risk of Chemical, Biological Attack
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 19/15/Prime Minister Manuel Valls warned Thursday that France was at risk of a chemical or biological weapons attack, as lawmakers voted to extend a state of emergency imposed after the Paris carnage. The fate of the suspected mastermind of Friday's attacks was still uncertain after a huge police raid in a northern district of the French capital on Wednesday that left at least two people dead. Investigators have yet to confirm whether the body of Abdelhamid Abaaoud was among the rubble of a shattered apartment block after police rained fire and grenades on the building in a seven-hour siege. Prosecutor Francois Molins said the raid in Saint-Denis had stopped a "new team of terrorists" who were ready to launch another attack in a city still mourning 129 dead, and they believed that senior Islamic State operative Abaaoud was at the building. At least two other people were killed in the ferocious shootout, including what is thought to be a woman who detonated an explosives vest. Valls warned of the dangers still faced by France as he opened a parliamentary debate that later saw lawmakers extend an extraordinary package of security measures for three months."We must not rule anything out," Valls said. "There is also the risk from chemical or biological weapons." He called on France's European Union partners to urgently adopt measures to share airline passenger information. "More than ever, it's time for Europe to adopt the text... to guarantee the traceability of movements, including within the union. It's a condition of our collective security," he said. The state of emergency will be in place for three months from November 26 after lawmakers approved the extension.
- Raids in Belgium -At least 129 people were killed in the shootings and suicide bombings that targeted a concert hall, bars and restaurants and the Stade de France national stadium, Europe's second deadliest terror attack in history. As the Paris probe widened to countries across Europe, Belgian police staged six raids in the Brussels area linked to a suicide bomber who blew himself outside the French stadium, prosecutors said. Italy was also looking for five suspects after an FBI tip-off about possible jihadist attacks on landmark sites including St Peter's cathedral in the Vatican, the foreign minister said.
Under one of the measures being adopted in France, police officers will be allowed to carry weapons when they are off duty. Officers will be allowed to use their guns in the event of an attack providing they wear a police armband to avoid "any confusion", according to a directive seen by Agence France Presse. Eight suspects were arrested in the massive Saint-Denis raid, but neither Abaaoud, the Belgian suspected of orchestrating the Paris attacks, nor another key suspect, Salah Abdeslam, were among them. Abdeslam is thought to be one of the only surviving members of the gang. His suicide-bomber brother Brahim Abdeslam blew himself up in a cafe but did not kill anyone else. As international efforts to fight the Islamic State group stepped up, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Russia was "sincere" in wanting to cooperate against IS in Syria. "There is an opening, so to speak, with the Russians. We think they are sincere and we must bring together all our forces," he told France Inter radio. But world powers remain deeply divided over the future of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has strong backing from Moscow. US President Barack Obama said Thursday that Syria's brutal civil war could not end while Assad remained in power.
- U.S. warning -
U.S. intelligence meanwhile published a report showing it warned in May that IS was capable of carrying out the kind of large-scale coordinated attacks seen in Paris. The assessment from the Office of Intelligence and Analysis, in coordination with the FBI, specifically refers to Abaaoud as a ringleader of Belgian plotters and warned Europe was more at risk of attack than the United States. Abaaoud was previously thought to be in Syria after fleeing raids in his native Belgium earlier this year. IS released a new video threatening New York, and specifically Times Square, although police said there was no "current and specific" threat. Hours after President Francois Hollande had urged the nation not to resort to anti-Muslim or anti-Semitic reprisals in the wake of the attacks, a Jewish teacher was stabbed and wounded in Marseille by three people shouting anti-Semitic obscenities and expressing support for IS.
France is coming to terms with being attacked for a second time in less than year. In January, jihadist gunmen killed 17 people at Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine, on the streets and in a Jewish supermarket. Citing security fears, the government has cancelled two mass rallies scheduled for November 29 and December 12 -- the days before and after a key UN climate summit to be held outside Paris.

Will Iran pursue high-cost strategy in Syria?
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
Since major operations began in late September in Syria, Iran has lost dozens of military officers — just under 50, according to Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani. The coordinated offensive in Aleppo with Russian air power, the Syrian army and Iranian advisers has resulted in major victories, but at a heavy cost. And Iran's game plan doesn't seem likely to change. The Syrian civil war is treated as a national security issue in Iran and by Iranian media. Media critical of Iran’s involvement in the 4½-year-old conflict typically refrain from controversial coverage of the topic, making it difficult at times to gauge public opinion. In some ways, the Syrian war is treated the same as the nuclear deal was treated under the administration of former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in that there was little discussion or internal debate, particularly in the media. While President Hassan Rouhani’s tenure has brought a relatively robust and sometimes destructive debate on the nuclear issue, the topic of Syria still appears off-limits. This is why the statements of Iranian officials can be revealing and shed light perhaps not on public opinion, but on some of the internal discussions taking place in the military and political leadership.
Mashregh News, a hard-line website believed to be affiliated with Iran's security services, recently published some of the contents of a February speech by Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani. Hamedani died Oct. 9 in Syria, making him the highest-ranking Iranian general to be killed in the country. Mashregh did not say why the content of the speech had not been published until now, but the sections of the speech chosen for publication suggest an attempt to explain the increasing number of Iranian casualties and involvement in Syria.
Assertions by Hamedani, who had been responsible for organizing the Syrian paramilitary units for a number of years and had only recently returned to Syria for the large-scale offensive, cannot be independently verified and may at times appear as an attempt to frame a costly civil war in a positive light. But the speech reveals what some Iranian officials view as significant transformations and events in the war.
Contrary to most perceptions, Hamedani suggested that the Syrian civil war is actually Iran’s war, saying, “While there are whispers in Iran about why we are paying the costs of Syria,” it is actually the Syrians who are paying the cost of Iran’s war. Hamedani believed the war is actually against the “arrogant” countries, a term Iranian hard-liners use for the United States and other world powers. He added that all Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would have to do is make nice with the United States, and presumably cut relations with Iran, and the war would come to an end.
According to Hamedani, Syria is Iran's buffer zone, and today plays a more significant role for Iran than Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain for a number of reasons, including Syria's shared border with Israel. Many analysts believe Syria also is important because it provides Iran access to the Lebanese group Hezbollah. Hamedani also claimed that before the war, Assad’s Baath Party had put “iron walls” around Iran’s activities in the country. But given the transformations in the country in the past few years, the former secular army that used to punish people for praying now has Syrian generals praying behind the leader of the Quds Force, Cmdr. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, and Syrian soldiers fasting during Ramadan. Regarding his work organizing the militias, Hamedani said most of them are Sunnis. Iran had organized 42 brigades and 138 battalions, and 30,000 Sunni soldiers were trained in Iran, he said.
Hamedani insisted that Iran only sends advisers to Syria and that they are at the front line under Syrian command, saying relations are so close that Syrians will name their children after the Iranian commanders. Given the statements by Iranian officials and despite the rising casualties, Iranian officials have not signaled any change in their strategy.

Is it time for China to step up its engagement in the Middle East?
Mohammad Ali Shabani/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
Chinese economic might is not a prospect in the distant future, but a current reality. Last year, China’s economy — in terms of purchasing power parity — overtook that of the United States for the first time. Yet, this momentous recalibration of the global economic power balance has not translated into a commensurate political shift. Nowhere is this more evident than in the Middle East, where China holds the position of top trading partner of several states, yet is effectively a third-rate power in terms of its political influence. If China wishes to become a true global power, it needs to step up to the plate, and it should do so on the foremost stage of geopolitical showdowns: the Middle East. In recent conversations with Al-Monitor, several Chinese experts on the Middle East, on condition of anonymity, acknowledged the mismatch between China’s economic and political influence. One leading academic with close ties to the ruling elite pinned it down to what he referred to as core principles of Chinese foreign policy: “mutual respect, dignity and noninterference.” Yet, the trajectory of Chinese involvement in places such as Africa tells a different story. While short of relegating their stated noninterference to a thing of the past, it is apparent that the Chinese have been assertive when their interests in Africa have been threatened.
Indeed, the most striking example of China overlooking its noninterference policy is Beijing’s response to the instability in oil-rich South Sudan, where Chinese state firms have important energy interests. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has been directly involved in conflict resolution efforts there, while Beijing earlier this year took the unprecedented step of sending hundreds of combat troops to join the UN peacekeeping mission in the country.
In contrast, while China has maintained a high-level diplomatic representation in the multilateral forums on the two most recent and pressing crises engulfing the Middle East — the Iranian nuclear issue and the Syrian civil war — it has taken the backseat in deference to the United States and Russia. Indeed, this fits with the pattern of China’s criticism of Western policies toward the region while in effect relying on Western hard power to ensure its energy security. Despite this dynamic, the potential for a greater Chinese role in the region should not be underestimated — even though it may appear far-fetched.
China should utilize its economic gravitas and turn it into political power by adopting a more proactive posture toward West Asia. China should do this not only to pursue a position as a true global power, but also to secure core Chinese interests, including energy security and addressing the threat posed by the Islamic State (IS). Indeed, in various conversations with Al-Monitor, it became apparent that Chinese officials and Middle East experts view militant Islamism as a key concern. In this vein, it should not be overlooked that China has an Islamist problem of its own, and that individuals linked to the unrest in the western Xinjiang region are reported to have joined IS. Several Chinese experts on the Middle East who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity all separately expressed deep cognizance of the threat posed by the prospect of these militants returning home — and more of their kin joining. Of note, reports surfaced Nov. 18 of the execution of a Chinese hostage by IS.
Beijing’s policy of mutual respect, dignity and noninterference has had its dividends. Yet, these dividends are what paradoxically have put China in the unique position of now being able to play an important role as a proactive facilitator of dialogue. The Saudi-Iranian cold war is one of the most important challenges facing the region today. China is uniquely equipped to facilitate direct engagement to address this rivalry for two main reasons.
First, China is the only permanent member of the UN Security Council that enjoys good relations with both Iran and Saudi Arabia. In response to this observation, one Beijing-based Chinese expert on the Middle East quipped to Al-Monitor: “We don’t have good relations [with Iran and Saudi Arabia]. We have normal relations.” Yet, this normalcy may very well be the key to effective conflict resolution. Indeed, in a climate where other major powers carry unhelpful baggage and are faced with deep mistrust by their own regional allies — Saudi Arabia’s hesitance about the United States is not very different from Iran’s reservations about Russia — China has a far greater flexibility due to its “cleaner” scorecard. The deep anxieties in Tehran and Riyadh about the potential for US-Russian collaboration over their heads should not be underestimated; even if great power convergence helps calm the situation in Syria, the anxieties it could unleash can very well spell trouble elsewhere.
Second, current economic realities also boost China’s unique opportunity to truly step up to the plate. Oil exports from South Sudan, where Beijing has not hesitated to roll up its sleeves, only account for a few percent of total Chinese oil imports. In comparison, Tehran and Riyadh have at some points this year provided one-quarter of China’s crude imports. The Chinese may view this as a liability that prevents interference rather than an asset that offers it great influence. However, in the context of the current climate of low crude prices, an oversupplied oil market and, consequently, troubled Iranian and Saudi economies, it is apparent that Chinese energy ties with regional powers could very well be the key to China’s successful adoption of a more proactive posture toward the region. Beijing has several options to work to forge Saudi-Iranian engagement. Among these is using available multilateral forums to press for a Chinese-facilitated Saudi-Iranian channel and also pushing for such engagement in a trilateral setting. There are many other innovative approaches to jump-start Iranian-Saudi engagement. China has the potential and capability to transform its role to become a true global power and, in this vein, convert its economic influence into political clout. Along with great power comes great responsibility; it is time for Beijing to assume this responsibility within the framework of mutual respect, dignity and noninterference.

In the battle against IS, where is the Arab coalition?
Bruce Riedel/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
In the wake of the Islamic State's (IS) attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, Beirut and Paris, there is an urgent need to mobilize resources to deal with the threat, especially resources in the Arab world. Instead, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are devoting their resources and efforts to a floundering and expensive military campaign in Yemen.When the air campaign against IS began more than a year ago, the Royal Saudi Air Force was an early participant. But it has not flown a mission against IS targets since September, according to The New York Times. Bahrain last flew a mission against IS in February. The United Arab Emirates stopped in March — even Jordan stopped in August. There has been no formal or public announcement of the stand-down. The Arab governments all reiterate their strong opposition to IS. This week, Riyadh's skyscrapers were lit in the French colors to express solidarity with Paris. King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud told President Barack Obama in Ankara that Saudi Arabia will play a major role in Syria. But in practice, American military officials report the war in Yemen has drained Arab air power away from the fight with the terrorists in Syria and Iraq. Yemen is the priority even if some token operations occasionally are taken to strike IS targets. The absence of Arab air forces creates a political — not military — void, even though Russia, France and America are fully capable of waging an air war against IS. The coalition is missing the Muslim answer to the self-proclaimed "Caliph Ibrahim." This is a waste of symbolically important resources. The war is also expensive. No official estimates of the cost have been released, but it must now be running into the tens of billions in armaments, maintenance and other expenses.
For example, this week the Pentagon announced the sale of $1.29 billion in air-to-ground munitions and associated equipment to restock RSAF bombs used in the Yemen campaign. The sale provides close to 20,000 new munitions to replace those used already. The United Kingdom, another major source of the RSAF's inventory of aircraft, is also replenishing Saudi stocks. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have raised questions about the use of these weapons and possible war crimes.Saudi Arabia has itself been targeted by IS repeatedly, as IS has carried out suicide bombings in both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. It promises to overthrow the House of Saud and raise its black flags over Mecca. Hundreds of Saudi citizens are fighting with the terrorist group in Iraq and Syria, while Jordan has been a target of IS, with one of its pilots locked in a cage and burned to death. These states have a stake in this war.
But Riyadh's attention and resources are focused on Yemen as the war there has come to a stalemate. After some successes over the summer, the Saudi-led coalition had promised to capture Sanaa, Yemen's capital, this fall. That looks unlikely today. The war is also a humanitarian catastrophe for 25 million Yemenis, as the blockade prevents the supply of food and medicine.
Even worse is that the major beneficiaries of the war so far are al-Qaeda and Iran. Al-Qaeda has seized control of large parts of southeastern Yemen since the war began. Its black flags fly in Aden, the temporary capital of the pro-Saudi government. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has grown stronger in the months since it attacked Paris in January, not weaker. That is a disturbing portent for those now promising to defeat IS. Iran is fighting to the last Houthi, laughing at the Saudis and Emiratis as they spend resources in what Tehran hopes will be an endless quagmire. Iran gains in Iraq and Syria from the Sunni forces' diversion to Yemen. Washington and Paris have both indulged Riyadh's Yemen mission, as both have hosted Saudi Defense Minister Prince Mohammed bin Salman — the 30-year-old architect of the Yemen war — and have done far too little to bring an end to this disaster. They have the leverage, along with London, since they control the pipeline of military resupply to the RSAF and its allies, but their half-hearted attempts to start a political process need much greater urgency. Both sides have accepted UN mediation and the UN Security Council resolution for a cease-fire, but the conflict drags on without pause.
After the Charlie Hebdo massacre in January, there were promises that the terrorists in Yemen who launched the attack would face a global response. Instead, they are stronger than ever and Yemen has become another battleground in the sectarian Sunni-Shiite war that is devastating the Islamic world.

Will Nidaa Tunis' troubles boost Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt?
Rami Galal/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
CAIRO — The resignation of 32 Nidaa Tunis members from their party’s parliamentary bloc in Tunisia on Nov. 9 has observers wondering whether the resignations represent the early stages of the disintegration of Nidaa Tunis and the possible re-emergence of Ennahda and what effect such a scenario might have, if any, on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. The resignations stem from a dispute over leadership of the party between the supporters of party General Secretary Mohsen Marzou and those of Hafedh Essebsi, party deputy chair and son of Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi. Ennahda had been the most influential party in Tunisia from 2011 to 2014, but Nidaa Tunis won the elections held in October 2014, taking 86 seats. Ennahda, with 67 seats, agreed to being represented in the government by a single minister. The resignations drop the number of Nidaa Tunis parliamentarians to 54, making Ennahda the largest bloc. The next moves are yet to be announced. Ennahda, led by Rachid Ghannouchi, takes the position that the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi remains the legitimate president of Egypt, brought down by the military. This has raised questions about whether the Nidaa Tunis resignations and a potentially resurgent Ennahda will influence the Brotherhood.
Waheed Abdel Meguid, deputy head of the Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, told Al-Monitor, “Such influence is linked to the answers to three questions: Is Ennahda willing to rule? Will the resigning MPs oppose [Prime Minister] Habib Essid’s government? Will the resigning MPs support Ennahda in parliament?” Abdel Meguid then said, “The answer to the three questions is no. All signs indicate that the balance of power will remain unchanged in parliament. Change will, however, occur on the political map, whose features will be revealed following Tunisia’s municipal elections in early 2016.”
According to Abdel Meguid, “[Ghannouchi] does not want Ennahda to take power at present. He is well aware of the difficulties and pressures under which an Ennahda government would have to work. He has benefited from the Brotherhood's experience in Egypt, and he wants to preserve Ennahda and lay its foundations in state institutions to be ready to assume responsibility.”Said Sadek, a political sociology professor at the American University in Cairo, told Al-Monitor, “Political Islam has an international ideology, just like communism. The fall of its main branch in Egypt, namely, the Brotherhood, is similar to the fall of communism in the Soviet Union, which affected all the communist parties in Eastern Europe. Thus, Ghannouchi’s statements in which he expressed sympathy for the Egyptian Brotherhood were a means of defending the Brotherhood’s ideology. Such statements will gain him a number of supporters for this ideology both in Tunisia and abroad. Ennahda in Tunisia will not allow the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to die out, because this would pose a threat to Ennahda as well.”
Sadek added, “The influence that Tunisia’s Brotherhood has on the Egyptian Brotherhood is different from that of Turkey’s Brotherhood. This is because Turkey is home to fugitive leaders of the Egyptian Brotherhood and because the Brotherhood’s satellite TV stations broadcast from Turkey. Moreover, the Brotherhood freely holds protests against Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in the Turkish streets, which does not happen in Tunisia.”
Amin Shalaby, executive director of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs, told Al-Monitor, “The Brotherhood views the decline of liberal forces [in Tunisia] as support for their movement, because it is a sign indicating that the Islamist tendency among the people is still present, strong and influential.”
Said al-Lawandi, an expert on international relations and professor at Cairo University, told Al-Monitor, “The rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in neighboring countries, whether in Tunisia, Turkey, Morocco, Yemen or Libya, will not make any major difference for the majority of the Egyptian people. The latter perceive that the one-year rule of the Brotherhood was a black year, during which Egypt was hijacked.”Lawandi further stated, “All forms and parties of political Islam are unacceptable [unpopular] in Egypt. This seemed clear in the recent [October first-round] parliamentary elections, where the Salafist Nour Party won 12 seats, two of which were challenged in the judiciary during the first round of voting. But, in the 2012 parliamentary elections, [Nour] won 112 seats, that is, 22% of the total number of seats. The reason [for the drop] is that the Egyptian people view the Nour Party as the other side of the Brotherhood. The results indicate that the Brotherhood’s problem is with the people, not with the regime.”Kamal Habib, an expert on the group’s affairs, told Al-Monitor, “The Muslim Brotherhood will not disappear from Egypt. It is necessary to think of a way to accommodate and integrate them into the political system, which Ghannouchi is demanding. He is also trying to persuade Saudi Arabia to mediate a reconciliation between the Brotherhood and Sisi, because the alternative will be ongoing acute polarization and hatred, upon which nations cannot be built.” In Habib's view, “Ghannouchi is dealing with the Egyptian Brotherhood issue as a statesman, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is taking it personally and even has the Rabia symbol on his desk.”

Can Syrian opposition defend both Hama and Aleppo at the same time?
Cynthia Milan/Al-Monitor/November 19/15
ALEPPO, Syria — Opposition fighters have made progress in their critical quest to reach the central Syrian city of Hama, but now are being weakened by their efforts to defend Aleppo at the same time.Hama is controlled by regime forces and their allies, who hope to use that position to access the towns of Kafriya and al-Fuah in Idlib’s countryside. Should that happen, the regime would penetrate the heart of opposition-controlled areas in northern Syria. On their way south to Hama, opposition forces are reclaiming towns and hills that regime forces controlled for a long time. The most significant progress came Nov. 5, when it took over the city of Murak, which the regime had controlled since late October 2014. Also on Nov. 5, opposition factions declared control over the base of Tell Othman and al-Shanabra checkpoint, west of Kafr Nabuda. On Nov. 6, the opposition took over Qubaybat, Tell al-Tawil, Tal Skik, Atshan and Umm al-Haratein, which it had lost during the regime’s Oct. 10 attack under Russian air cover.
Despite Russian air support for the regime, the opposition took control over an estimated 40 square miles in the Hama governorate in just the first week of November. Yet, it seems opposition forces will have difficulty reaching Hama. Murak, their closest stronghold to Hama, is still 15 difficult miles away.
Hama, in central Syria, would provide a link from the capital Damascus, in the south, to northern Syria. Hama is also Syria's fourth-largest city in terms of population, where about 750,000 people live (according to 2010 statistics). The opposition sees an opportunity to gain the people's trust in Hama, where in 2011, hundreds of thousands of citizens protested against the regime. However, the city remained under the regime's control and has not seen any armed action, unlike cities in northern Syria. Despite all their progress in Hama governorate, opposition forces are falling behind in the countryside south of Aleppo as regime forces advance, backed on the ground by Lebanese Hezbollah and Iran. This is why the opposition was forced to withdraw troops from the battle for Hama and send them to defend Aleppo. On Nov. 14, Jaish al-Nasar, one of the most prominent forces affiliated with the Free Syrian Army in Hama, declared a full public mobilization to defend Aleppo. A similar step was taken Nov. 15 by Jaish al-Fatah, the Army of Conquest, which includes several opposition factions such as Ahrar al-Sham, Sham Legion and Jabhat al-Nusra. “These reinforcements will repel the regime forces and their allies’ progress and push them back,” Ahmed al-Ahmad, the public relations officer for Sham Legion, told Al-Monitor on Nov. 15.
The regime forces had taken control of a number of important towns in Aleppo’s southern countryside in an offensive launched Oct. 16. They continued to progress until Nov. 13, when they gained control over the towns of al-Hadir and al-Eis, and the strategic al-Eis hill, which overlooks parts of the Aleppo-Damascus international road and is within firing distance of large areas of Aleppo’s southern countryside. In this regard, Ahmad noted, “The regime forces’ progress in Aleppo’s southern countryside was due to the great Iranian role in leading the battle along with the wide participation of Shiite militias, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Iraqi Nujaba movement.”He added, “The opposition neglected Aleppo’s southern countryside and coordination is weak between the opposition battalions. This is how the regime was able to progress on this fragile point."There's little doubt that, by sending reinforcements to Aleppo’s southern countryside, the opposition is weakening its position in Hama, but Ahmad asserted, “There are still enough fighters and munitions in Hama to repel the regime.”

The EU's Embarrassing Little Secret in Labeling Israeli Products
Malcolm Lowe/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6921/israel-eu-product-labeling
The EU alleges that the "Interpretive Notice" has nothing to do with a boycott of Israel, and the U.S. has officially concurred in that assessment. The EU says the Interpretive Notice merely responds to "a demand for clarity from consumers, economic operators and national authorities." But this is disingenuous.
There is a long list of separatist movements in the EU, some demanding independence, others demanding greater autonomy. It is easy to imagine that some Jews in Israel have corresponding sympathies with such movements and "demands for clarity" about the products of the respective European states. Surely some Israeli Jews would like to buy Scotch whisky only from the few firms that are still in Scottish hands. How can Israelis' right to know fairly be denied? Israel is entitled to request that Europeans label their products accordingly. What has happened is another manifestation of the infuriating zeal of the European Commission to issue endless directives to all member states in order to impose uniformity in cases where most Europeans never imagined that uniformity was necessary.
On November 11, 2015, the Commission of the European Union issued the "final" version of its "Interpretative Notice on indication of origin of goods from the territories occupied by Israel since June 1967." It recommends the labelling of all such goods as originating in an "Israeli settlement." The decision aroused dismay and anger not just in the parties constituting the current Israeli government but also in most of the parliamentary opposition in the Knesset. After all, the original settlement program in all those areas was the Allon Plan. This plan was adopted shortly after 1967 by the then Labour Alignment, which was the direct ancestor of the chief current opposition party. So the European Commission has succeeded in alienating also those whom it would like to replace the Netanyahu government.
One current Knesset member, Michael Oren, reacted to the "Interpretative Notice" by getting himself photographed in an Israeli supermarket where he was sticking homemade "Made in Europe" labels on the appropriate products. His evident aim was to dissuade Israelis from buying them.
Superficially, Oren's reaction conforms with one of the four anti-boycott strategies that this author recently defined, namely, to organize boycotts of boycotters. But Oren's hasty reaction, if it should succeed, would achieve the opposite of his aim. Oren is correct in his perception that Israel has little power to influence decisions of the European Union (EU), but every power to impose its own labelling requirements. But he overlooked the basic fact that, currently, only three members of the EU require such labelling: Belgium, Denmark and the United Kingdom. What has happened is another manifestation of the infuriating zeal of the European Commission to issue endless directives to all member states in order to impose uniformity in cases where most Europeans never imagined that uniformity was necessary. This behaviour, together with the propensity of European courts to overrule UK law, is what mainly propels the increasing desire of Britons to leave the EU. We should not rush, as Oren did, to punish all the EU states for the follies of the Commission.
Consequently, the Israeli reaction should be directed only toward EU states that implement the "Interpretive Notice," thus encouraging the other member states to ignore it. Indeed, the "Interpretive Notice" itself states that "enforcement of the relevant rules remains the primary responsibility of Member States."
A "senior European official" has admitted that the European Commission restricted itself to giving advice. As for the member states, he remarked: "If they don't do it, most likely not much will happen. But 16 member states did ask for clarification so I assume this will be partly implemented." Already, implementation of the "Interpretive Notice" has been rejected by the Hungarian minister for foreign affairs and trade, and by the ruling CDU faction in the German parliament. So Israel is entitled to draw up its own labelling requirements, but should apply them only to imports from EU states that impose labelling requirements on Israel. Michael Oren himself could introduce appropriately targeted Israeli regulations by submitting a private member's bill in the Knesset. (Obviously, this path is more tactful than legislation initiated by the government itself.) If that is more trouble than Oren needs, there are over a hundred other Knesset members who could do it. To that end, let us first examine the provisions of the "Interpretive Notice" and then employ them as a precedent for the Israeli response.
Rights and Wrongs of the "Interpretive Notice"
The Interpretive Notice begins by noting that the EU "does not recognise Israel's sovereignty over the territories occupied by Israel since June 1967, namely the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem." Indeed, all the trade agreements between the EU and Israel were made on that assumption, which Israel respects. Consequently, Israel agreed a decade ago that goods produced in those areas should not enjoy, for instance, the same tax exemptions as goods produced in pre-1967 Israel. Thus far the Commission is within its rights, also when it notes that EU legislation requires goods to show their "country of origin" or at any rate their "place of provenance." Where the Commission goes astray is in its attempt to define the implications of that requirement in the present case. The Interpretive Notice states (Section 10):
"For products from the West Bank or the Golan Heights that originate from settlements, an indication limited to 'product from the Golan Heights' or 'product from the West Bank' would not be acceptable. Even if they would designate the wider area or territory from which the product originates, the omission of the additional geographical information that the product comes from Israeli settlements would mislead the consumer as to the true origin of the product. In such cases the expression 'Israeli settlement' or equivalent needs to be added, in brackets, for example. Therefore, expressions such as 'product from the Golan Heights (Israeli settlement)' or 'product from the West Bank (Israeli settlement)' could be used."
Consider the case of Inon Rosenblum, which was recently featured in the Times of Israel. Rosenblum was told by his Palestinian neighbours in the Jordan Valley that nothing could grow in the intensely salty soil. Undeterred, he spent decades improving the soil, which now produces "dates, grapes and ten kinds of fresh herbs, all for export." Apart from himself and his son, everyone else working there is Palestinian. He also gave his Palestinian neighbours date palm seedlings so that they could start their own production. Result: the circa 7,000 Israelis and 10,000 Palestinians living in the Jordan Valley now "account for 40% of the medjool dates around the world." Next, consider whisky production in Scotland. According to the Distillery Owners Guide, Scotland's distilleries are today overwhelmingly owned by non-Scots. The biggest owner is Diageo, with headquarters in London, but other owners include huge corporations whose headquarters are in India, Thailand and Japan, not to mention Trinidad and other countries. Typically, most of the workers in the distilleries are Scots, but the top management may come from outside Scotland. The European Commission wants to distinguish between Rosenblum and the Palestinian neighbours whom he helped, by labelling his dates "Israeli settlement." By the same token, those distilleries in Scotland and the residences of their managers constitute English settlements, Indian settlements, Thai settlements, etc. For that matter, if an Indian company purchased Rosenblum's plantations and installed an Indian manager, they would then also become an Indian settlement.
On the Golan Heights, the situation is somewhat simpler. The area belonged to the sovereign state of Syria, as defined by the boundary between the former French and British Mandates, except for where the Syrian regime had encroached beyond that boundary in the years before 1967. There is a clear distinction between Syrian citizens, who live in the four Druze villages, and Israeli citizens. Not so in the West Bank. Before 1967, the Palestinians living there were Jordanian citizens. They and their offspring mostly continue to hold Jordanian passports. So if Rosenblum's dates are to be labeled "Israeli settlement," the dates grown from the plants that he gave his neighbours should be labeled "Jordanian settlement." This is no joke: the Jordanian regime has formally renounced claims to the territory, but it continues to seek influence there. In particular, it is proud that Jordan, not the Palestinian Authority, officially administers the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
In so-called "East Jerusalem," the situation is even more complicated. A considerable number of Israeli Arabs, especially from the Galilee, have taken up residence there. So any business of theirs is an "Israeli settlement," according to the European Commission. The Jordanian citizens that Israel found there in 1967 were all given Israeli identity cards. In the meantime, thousands of them have taken out Israeli citizenship, which required renouncing their Jordanian citizenship, and thousands more have submitted applications. Thus, according to the European Commission, any business of theirs instantly becomes an "Israeli settlement" when their application is accepted, and they must re-label their products accordingly. (The same applies to those Golan Druze who have taken out Israeli citizenship, but they are numbered in hundreds rather than thousands.)
This is so ridiculous that the European Commission would be advised quietly to forget about "East Jerusalem" in promoting its "Interpretive Notice." The geographic term itself has become ridiculous. Jerusalem is located on a mountain ridge running from north to south, so since 1967 the Jewish population has expanded in those directions, not to the east. Because the European bureaucrats repeat their archaic vocabulary rather than consult the map, they imagine that such neighbourhoods as Ramot (Northwest Jerusalem) and Gilo (Southwest Jerusalem) lie in a mythical pre-1967 "East Jerusalem."
Boycotting products made by Jews, now, and then.
Potential Israeli Regulations
The "Interpretive Notice" of the European bureaucrats, seeking to clarify regulations, has ensnared itself in absurdities. Precisely those absurdities provide a precedent for ingenuity in formulating corresponding Israeli regulations.
The European Commission alleges that the "Interpretive Notice" has nothing to do with a boycott of Israel, and the U.S. Administration has officially concurred in that assessment. It merely responds, says the "Interpretive Notice" to "a demand for clarity from consumers, economic operators and national authorities." But this is disingenuous. The Commission has indicated (although this is not stated in the "Interpretive Notice" itself) that the first products to be labeled will be fresh food and cosmetics. It can hardly be a coincidence that Jordan Valley dates and an Israeli cosmetic firm have been favourite targets of boycotters. These were exactly the consumers who demanded such clarity and the Commission is satisfying their wishes.
There is a long list of separatist movements in the EU, some demanding greater autonomy, others demanding independence. As many Jews in Israel have European connections, it is easy to imagine that some of these Jews have corresponding sympathies and "demands for clarity" about the products of the respective European states. Surely one can imagine Israeli Jews who would like to buy Scotch whisky only from the few firms that are still in Scottish hands. How can Israelis' right to know fairly be denied? Israel is entitled to request that Europeans label their products accordingly, both in this case and in innumerable other like cases.
The countries whose separatist movements are most conspicuous are Spain and France. But -- as suggested above -- they should be left out for the moment, since they have not yet adopted regulations of the kind called for by the European Commission.
A bill in the Knesset would therefore have to formulate three main requirements for action by the appropriate Israeli government ministry. First, to draw up for each EU member state a list of the relevant regions. This is relatively easy. Second, to formulate detailed regulations for the three states that already label "settlement products." Third, a statutory duty to formulate like regulations for any other EU state, but only if and when it decides to adopt the "Interpretive Notice." Even Denmark has separatist movements in Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Bornholm. The cases of Belgium and the UK hardly need explaining, except that Belgium has its German minority and the UK has a separatist movement in Cornwall, which should therefore be added to England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It may seem rather silly to label many Scottish distilleries as "English settlements," although one can probably find Scots who feel that way about them. This author is on record as not favouring separatism in the UK, but only (as a Welsh speaker) due provision for regional cultural differences. But the silliness merely reflects the silliness of the European bureaucrats and their "Interpretive Notice." In practical terms, imitating the silliness has a sensible effect: it imposes a counter-burden upon the original sillies for the burden that they impose upon Israel.
A Possible Compromise? To be precise, the "Interpretive Notice, as quoted above, asserts that "the expression 'Israeli settlement' or equivalent needs to be added." That is, it does not absolutely require that particular expression, so is there some alternative mutually acceptable to the European Commission and Israel? For instance, replacing "Israeli settlement" with "Israeli product" would be less offensive to Israelis. Only, it would be anathema to Scots to label any whisky as an "English product." Perhaps the European Commission and Israel could settle for "Israeli-owned enterprise" on Rosenblum's dates and "English-owned enterprise" on Scotch whisky, respectively. This form of description is accurate; it should satisfy the Commission's desire not to "mislead the consumer as to the true origin of the product." The remaining problem is that -- whatever formula is used – this is an unnecessary expense imposed by bureaucrats on business. But since the Commission has decided to go down that path, the Israeli Knesset may have no choice but to follow with its own parallel legislation.

Fake Protests
Jagdish N. Singh/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6923/fake-protests
When no one is out there to protect freedom and democracy, groups masquerading as democratic forces move in to serve the designs of their masters. Anyone questioning the authorities' interpretation of Islam is dealt with in a barbaric fashion, from the 2am "knock on the door" to sham trials, public floggings, protracted imprisonment, rape, beatings, torture and extrajudicial murder. In some countries, the lawyers who represent such clients are also murdered. Mauritania passed a new anti-slavery law this year, but has yet to start jailing slave-owners instead of anti-slavery activists. The government has yet to release award winning anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, arrested last year for organizing a peaceful demonstration against slavery. Many theocracies have little-to-no respect for law; freedom of expression; equal justice under the law; freedom of (or from) religion; for women's rights; tolerance of homosexuals or other sexual preferences -- but they condone the sexual assault of children. One of the reasons democracy has not really taken roots in much of the contemporary world is that some groups still remain aligned to the status quo -- reactionary forces in our society. They apparently prefer to join a democratic system, and then invent ways to hijack its terminology and misuse its tools to destroy it from within. As such groups can be found the world over, sadly India is no exception. A case in point is the protest, organized by the All India Muslim Majlis-e Mushawarat, the Jamaat-e-Islami Hind, the Association for Protection of Civil Rights and the Students Islamic Organisation of India, against the recent visit of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to New Delhi to attend India-Africa Forum Summit.
The organizers said in a press statement:
"Abdel Fattah el-Sisi is guilty of occupying power after ousting a democratically elected legitimate government in an illegal and immoral way and is responsible for brutally killing and arresting thousands of people. It is, therefore, extremely sad that India, a bastion of democracy, has invited an anti-democracy and fascist dictator such as Sisi. This move by the government goes against the nature and will of the democracy-loving masses, and is therefore condemnable and reprehensible. "[T]he dictatorial regime of Sisi continues to wreak havoc upon the people of Egypt, with thousands killed and tens of thousands illegally detained and punished without a fair trial. The Egyptian economy is in shambles, and inflation and unemployment have reached unmanageable levels."
Although many of those words appear aligned with democratic values, it is not hard to see that such groups are hardly democratic. These groups have, in their statement, shown a preference for the reactionary Muslim Brotherhood at the expense of the relatively moderate Sisi regime that replaced it.
The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in 1928, in reaction to the abolition of the Caliphate by Turkey's legendary reformist ruler, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, in 1924. The credo of the Muslim Brotherhood is: "Allah is our goal, the Quran our constitution, jihad our path and to die for Allah our highest aspiration." The organization's coat-of-arms displays two swords, presumably symbolizing its militant mission. Its goal is seemingly the unity of all Islamic nations under the wings of Sharia [Islamic religious law] and the return of the Caliphate.
According to at least one Middle Eastern expert based in Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood has spawned a number of organizations, including Hamas and al Qaeda. In Egypt it is represented by the Jihad, Al-Takfir wa al-Hijra; Al-Nagounmin al-Nar; in the Palestinian territories, by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Islamic Army and People's Army; in Tunisia by al Nahda; in the Philippines by Abu Sayyaf; in Indonesia by al Jamaa al Islamiya; in Syria by Jabhat al Nusra; in Israel by the Islamic Movement. Hundreds of other organizations and commercial companies have also branched out from the Muslim Brotherhood.
In addition, the Muslim Brotherhood seems to have inspired the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, notorious for the trampling of human rights of those who do not toe the Muslim Brotherhood line -- in particular, minorities such as the Christians, Yazidis, Shiites, Alawites and Kurds. Tellingly, the groups protesting against the Sisi visit did not protest against any other leader who attended the summit from all 54 African nations (except Libya). The human rights situation across Africa remains grim, especially regarding the democratic process and fair trials. Violations of rights also include extrajudicial execution, mutilation, and rape. And although basic universal rights for children include sanitation, clean water, and education, most Sub-Saharan countries barely provide them.
The same groups chose not to protest against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, who attended the summit. The International Criminal Court has long sought his arrest on charges stemming from the conflict in the Darfur region in western Sudan from 2003 onwards; they include war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. Bashir's regime has also been accused of repression and the ethnic cleansing of Darfur's non-Arab population. The groups also failed to protest against Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, a leading figure in a coup d'état in August 2005 that deposed President Maaouya Quid Sud'Ahmed Taya. In August 2008, he led another coup that toppled President Sidi Quid Cheikh Abdallah. Afterwards, Aziz became President of the High Council of States as part of a political transition leading to a new election. He resigned from that post in April 2009, contested in the July 2009 presidential election and manipulated the whole process to win it.
The situation of human rights in Mauritania is also appalling. More than 155,000 people still remain in slavery there. Mauritania, in fact, has the highest prevalence slavery in the world: an estimated four percent of its population. Slavery is apparently entrenched in Mauritanian society by tradition; and the Mauritanian government seems to have no intention of ending it. Apparently as lip service to eradicating slavery, Mauritania passed a new anti-slavery law this year, but has yet to start jailing slave-owners instead of anti-slavery activists. The government has yet to release award winning anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, arrested last year for organizing a peaceful demonstration against slavery.
People are taught in Mauritania's Islamic religious schools that slaves are the property of their masters and can be passed along as inheritance, and that women slaves must submit their bodies to their masters. And they did not protest against Burundi's President, Pierre Nkurunziza, who just won a contested third term. Britain, the U.S. and others have condemned the election as not credible due to the harassment and intimidation of the opposition, rights activists, journalists and voters. Burundi's constitution stipulates that a president can serve for two terms only. The opposition claims Nkurunziza's decision breached a 2006 accord to end a disastrous civil war that lasted 13 years and left at least 300,000 people dead. According to The Guardian, ever since he announced he would stand for office again, the country has been gripped by dread. Street protests were put down by a brutal police response in April. "Treating largely peaceful demonstrators and entire residential areas as part of an insurrection was counter-productive and escalated rather than defused protests," according to Amnesty International.
The Amnesty International report goes on to say that, since April, more than 167,000 people have fled the country; and that a number of dissident army generals, journalists, opposition politicians and members of the president's CNDD-FDD party who opposed Nkurunziza remain in exile.
But members of the organizations who protested Sisi evidently do not care. In India, they have continued to disregard or gloss over reports of gross rights violations, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other theocracies that have at best little respect for the rights of anyone other then members of their own ruling religious sects. Many theocracies have little-to-no respect for law; freedom of expression; equal justice under the law; freedom of (or from) religion; for women's rights; tolerance of homosexuals or other sexual preferences -- but they condone the sexual assault of children. Anyone questioning the authorities' interpretation of Islam is dealt with in a barbaric fashion, from the 2am "knock on the door" to sham trials, public floggings, protracted imprisonment, rape, beatings, torture and extrajudicial murder. In some countries, the lawyers who represent such clients are also murdered. One hopes that the enlightened sections of civil society in India will remain ever vigilant about the activities of such groups. When no one is out there to protect freedom and democracy, groups masquerading as democratic forces move in to serve the designs of their masters.
Jagdish N. Singh is a senior Indian journalist based in New Delhi, India.

Turkey Destroys Kurdistan, World Silent
Uzay Bulut/Gatestone Institute/November 19/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6922/turkey-destroys-kurdistan
If Kurds left their homes, they would be shot. If they stayed in their homes, they would be bombed.
In 1990s, the Turkish military used to burn down Kurdish villages; today they burn down Kurdish towns.
This month, three neighborhoods in the Kurdish city of Silvan in Diyarbakir Province -- Tekel, Konak and Mescit -- were put under military curfew and then attacked from November 3 to November 14. Telephone lines, water, and electricity were cut. The neighborhoods, besieged by armored police vehicles, were then bombarded by tanks and artillery shooting from the hills. Many houses were hit by bullets and bombs; some houses were burned. [1] Representatives of the governor's office in Diyarbakir claimed that the military operations aimed to "remove the ditches and barricades" set up by some Kurdish youths, but reports coming from the town showed that the operation actually seemed to aim at ethnically cleansing the town from its indigenous population of more than two thousand years, the Kurds. [2] "We cannot get information from those neighborhoods in any way." Firat Anli, the co-mayor of Diyarbakir, told Firat News Agency (ANF). "We cannot send in any food or humanitarian aid. Dialysis patients, children, the elderly... We have no information about their situation. They have been disconnected from the rest of the world." Edip Erk, a former deputy of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party, HDP, told the Bianet News agency:
"Three HDP deputies have been in those neighborhoods. They say there are many wounded. Even martial law permits the wounded to be taken to hospitals but in Silvan they [Turkish officials] are not allowing that. "The public institutions in those neighborhoods, such as the health care center, are closed. There is a huge food shortage. We have informed the authorities that we would like to send in a truck with food but we have not yet received their response. So the truck is still waiting. "The chief of police of the city told us he is not administering the operation. The Ministry is. It is a military operation. Here, it used to be like an open prison; now it is an open torture center."[3]. The special operations police, from their mosques and armored vehicles, told the residents of the town to "evacuate the neighborhoods or we will shoot all of you."
If Kurds left their homes, they would shot. If they stayed in their homes, they would be bombed.
Silvan was not the first target of the Turkish military after the 7 June elections. Many towns and cities that are the strongholds of the Kurdish national movement -- such as Diyarbakir, Cizre, Sirnak and Hakkari -- have been attacked.[4] The Kurdish town of Cizre in Turkey was indiscriminately bombarded by Turkish security forces in September. Many homes were heavily damaged or destroyed. Photographic evidence shows many buildings and vehicles in the town riddled with bullet holes. "This must be the 'new Turkey' they promised," said Abdullah Zeydan, a deputy of the city of Hakkari. "Now they target and wound even the MPs. I do not know where they get this power from. Before elections, the AKP promised stability and peace; their view of stability and peace is using violence against MPs."[5] Ziya Pir, a deputy of HDP, said that an official from the Ministry of Interior told him that "they will erase these three neighborhoods in Silvan from the map... Special operations teams open fire at everything they see as alive."[6]. Pir added that their talks with authorities bore no results; the governor and district governor told them that "they have received the orders from higher authorities."
The governor office of Diyarbakir nevertheless announced, "In the town centre, it has taken all kinds of precautions to provide life and property security of citizens, to preserve the current peace and stability, to protect citizens from all kinds of terror acts and to guarantee safety and order in accordance with all relevant legislation." Pro-government media outlets celebrated the attacks. The newspaper Haberturk, for instance, joyfully reported: "A great operation joined by tanks has been started in Silvan."
Silvan has been turned into a ghost town. 20,000 people have reportedly fled a city of 86,600. And after Silvan, the new target of the government is the Kurdish town of Nusaybin, which voted 89.4% for the pro-Kurdish HDP party in 1 November elections. A military curfew was declared in the town on November 13 and is still going on. People are stuck in their homes. Ramazan Kaya, a doctor working at Nusaybin State Hospital, told BBC that one of his relatives had to put his child in the refrigerator to reduce his fever. Those who go outside are shot by police. Selamet Yesilmen (44), a mother of five and pregnant, was one of them. She was shot dead in front of her house by a sniper on November 15. Her two children were badly wounded and hospitalized. Yilmaz Tutak, who tried to run to her help, was also shot and wounded by police.
Tahir Elci, president of the Diyarbakir Bar Association, confirmed that Yesilmen was shot with a weapon whose bullet is used by snipers; it goes faster and explodes in the body.
On November 18, Hasan Dal, 45, was murdered in the garden of his house. 13 people have been wounded so far. One was Gule Tutak, the mother of Yilmaz Tutak, killed earlier by police.[7]. This is the second curfew to which the town has been exposed since the June 7 elections. The first was declared on October 1 and lasted six days. Ahmet Sonmez (61) and Sahin Turan (25) were killed by police. Most of the people in these towns have resisted the decades-long assimilation imposed by the Turkish state. They still speak Kurdish, and still demand national rights and self-rule. Those are reasons enough for the Turkish state to see these towns as enemies that should be destroyed.
The Turkish state has never treated a non-Turkish or non-Muslim group morally or justly. Murder and destruction have become centuries-long traditions of the Turkish rule. Today, the oppression in Turkey against minorities continues unabated. A hundred years ago, the Turkish regime slaughtered Armenians, Anatolian Greeks and Assyrians while the world was mostly silent. Now it is Kurds' turn. The world is still silent. **Uzay Bulut, born and raised a Muslim, is a Turkish journalist based in Ankara. [1] See photos and videos of the curfew here: "'Erasing from map'? Scenes of destruction as Turkish military besiege Kurdish town of Silvan (VIDEO)", 11 Nov 2015, Russia Today. [2] "There is no doubt that a Kurdish people had existed as an identifiable group for possibly more than two thousand years," wrote the researcher David McDowall in "Modern History of the Kurds," I. B. Tauris; 2004.
[3] The week of November 3, six Kurds -- Muslum Tayar, Sertip Polat, Engin Gezici, Ismet Gezici, Mehmet Gunduz ile Yakup Sinba – were shot dead by police. One of them, Engin Gezici, a 24-year-old father of three, was murdered in front of his house. His aunt, Ismet Gezici, 55, ran to his aid but was also shot dead. HDP deputies and other Kurdish representatives tried to get his body, but the police did not allow them to enter the neighborhood. After that, three relatives of Gezici, despite intensive attacks, entered the neighborhood and took it. But they were stopped and arrested by police who then seized the dead body. Engin and Ismet Gezici were laid to rest in Diyarbakir under the sounds of explosions and gunshots.
[4] The newspaper Ozgur Gundem reported that police opened fire at a coffee house in the Feridun neighborhood, not under curfew. Mehmet Yavuz (45), Seyfettin Kurt (44) and Abdulsamet Kesici (50) were badly wounded. Yavuz died on the way to hospital. Abdullah Guney, 7, was wounded by bullets, and Ibrahim Yazkent, 12, by a grenade. Meanwhile, university students in the Kurdish province of Hakkari organized a protest that was also joined by two HDP deputies. Both of them, and Selma Irmak, were wounded by the police. "We joined the demonstration as the deputies of Hakkari," said Zeydan. "Panzers stopped us and without giving a warning, they started to attack us. It was a targeted attack. My hand was broken; there are rashes, and scars over my body.
[5] "While we were talking to the police, they shot their guns," said Irmak, who was also wounded. "A plastic bullet hit my ear. They targeted and shot us within spitting distance. All of a sudden, they used both gas bombs and plastic bullets." (Video)
[6] Pir continued: "And this is what they are doing right now. They are opening fire at everywhere -- including civilians discriminately. The soldiers, police or some unregistered people that I call "head hunters" rake through everything from top to bottom where they see life." Pir said that heavy weapons were used in those neighborhoods, tanks were deployed in the hills facing the region; the buildings were hit with artillery fire, civilians in groups of 10 or 15 took shelter in the basement floors of their houses. [7] Dicle News Agency reported some of the wounded. Suleyman Altekin, 65, was shot and wounded by police while trying to go to his son's house. Faysal Cakar and his 10-year-old son Cano Cakar were wounded by shrapnel from a grenade launched by the police. Sirin Bilgin was shot in the back on the balcony of her house. Abdulkadir Yilmaz, 65, had a heart attack and died because he could be taken to hospital only 3 hours later due to the blocked roads. Halime Guner (35), a mother of 3, was shot in the foot, in front of her house. Fatma Kulat, 42, was shot and badly wounded by police while she was in her kitchen.

Iraq May Repeal Child Conversion Law
2015-11-19/(AINA) -- The Iraqi Council of Representatives passed a resolution yesterday requiring modifications to the National Card Law that was approved on October 27, and which included a paragraph that will force Christian and non-Muslim children to become Muslims if the male parent converts to Islam or if their non-Muslim mother marries a Muslim. Non-Muslim step-children of a Muslim father would be forced to become Muslims (AINA 2015-11-07).
The law was specified in Article 26, paragraph 2, which says "children shall follow the religion of the converted parent to Islam."Salim Jibouri, the President of the Council, asked the non-muslim Parliamentarians who had boycotted the meetings to return to the sessions of the Council and contribute to the rewriting of the law, noting that the Council will take the necessary steps to amend the law and work to ensure that all ethnic groups enjoy the rights guaranteed by the Constitution. Assyrians, Yazidis, Mandeans, Kakai and Bahai leaders vigorously fought the law and their representatives walked out of the Parliament session in protest after it was passed. They had requested to add the following sentence to paragraph 2: "minors will keep their current religion until the completion of 18 years of age, then they have the right to choose their religion" -- but this was rejected. At the outset of the session yesterday, which was attended by 206 parliamentarians, Jubouri said "the Presidency of the Council took into account the boycott of the council meetings by the Parliamentarians of the religious groups and their demand of amending the national card law in order to achieve justice for their constituents, expressing the Council is eager for these parliamentarians representing other components to resume their work with their other colleagues."The council's decision to rewrite the law, which received the support of 140 votes of the total present, was the effect the boycott of the parliamentarians of non-Muslim religious groups of the parliament meetings as well as vigorous opposition by churches and civic leaders. Kadhim al-Shammari, MP from the National Coalition, said on Wednesday the decision of the Council to take the necessary measures to amend the national card law to ensure the rights of minorities is an important step to restore national unity and strengthen the social fabric. in a statement published by Sky Press, Al-Shammari said "Iraqi society represents a diverse and beautiful mosaic of various nationalities and religions, and this diversity is a strength of the country when building the right foundation for a peaceful coexistence and respect for the rights of others."
He added the "Parliament's decision to take the necessary measures to amend Article 26 of the national card law, represents an important and bold step to pave the way towards giving all the components of civil and religious rights without marginalization."
He praised "...all efforts made within the Parliament of political blocs and the private representatives of minorities and their strong stand to regain the rights for their constituents in addition to the efforts of the Presidency and religious endowments to succeed. We hope it culminates with the amending the article once and for all, including giving full freedom for all groups in the selection of the religion that suits them according to the principle of no compulsion in religion."
http://www.aina.org/news/20151118204346.htm

Punishing Syrian refugees will only help ISIS
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/November 19/15
The sheer terror that hit Paris on the 13th has everything to do with a monstrous ideology that has found a safe haven in the troubled pockets of the Middle East, and is spreading its vicious tentacles into Europe. It has little to do, however, with the refugee influx escaping Syria, Iraq, and Libya, which happens to be a victim of the same monster. Punishing Syria’s refugees for ISIS’ blood quest in Europe and the United States is a distraction that plays right into the hands of the terror group and undermines fighting its threat globally. What is needed is a comprehensive approach in structuring and managing the refugee problem, while strengthening border security and surveillance over more than 3000 Europeans who have joined ISIS.
Identified Paris attackers: No refugees
The backlash targeting the Syrian refugees following the Paris attacks has more to do with the pre-existing fear and xenophobia towards Muslims in Europe and the United States than with the horror in Paris. The logic of the anti-refugee campaign is detached from the actual facts of the terror plot in Paris, and distracts from the security gaps that contributed to its occurrence. When political leaders in the West use fear mongering and single out Muslim refugees leaving Syria, they are inadvertently supporting ISIS’ argument that the Muslim population is not welcome in the land of “infidels”. One week into the attack, the facts from the investigation points to European nationals and not Syrian refugees as the terrorists behind the operation. Their ties to ISIS, history of criminal activity in Europe, and having visited Syria suggests a two-pronged threat from the attack: 1-The flow of European fighters to and from ISIS territory 2-Surveillance, criminal activity and extremism inside Europe. Five out of the nine terrorists (seven dead, two remain at large) were identified as French citizens, and three of them lived in Belgium. The theory of the alleged Syrian refugee passport found next to one of the attackers outside Stade de France has been debunked by the German, U.S. and French intelligence. Agence France Press (AFP) quoted French investigators that all indications regarding the name on the passport (Ahmad Al-Mohammad) “point towards the fact he was a soldier loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad” who died months ago. A U.S. intelligence official told CBS that “the passport did not contain the correct numbers for a legitimate Syrian passport and the picture did not match the name.”
The passport narrative was further shred by the German authorities and Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere that saying "there are indications it (Greece) is a false trail." The German official told AFP, adding that “it still cannot be ruled out that a terrorist headed for Europe and to France, probably via Germany.”
While the Syrian component and threat is very much present in the Paris plot, with five of the attackers believed to have visited Syria, there is nothing credible thus far that links the plot to the refugees. All the known attackers are European with criminal history in Europe, and three of them were on the radar screen of suspected terrorist connection. These facts should beg questions about internal European security and surveillance, and ISIS’ operational reach through European recruits to the continent.
Blaming Refugees helps ISIS
Deflecting attention from the core problem of ISIS recruiting and dispatching terrorists from Syria into Europe via Turkey undermines efforts to address the border threat. Focussing on a refugee population escaping barrel bombs, rape and starvation instead of Europe’s internal homegrown threat works also in the favor of the terrorists. The perpetrators of the Paris attacks come from the same ranks of those oppressing the Syrian people and turning them into refugees. Politically, the hostile language towards the refugee population perfectly fits the narrative of ISIS who labeled those fleeing Syria as “sinners” going “to the land of the war-waging crusaders.” Last September, and as the world was mourning the 3-year-old Aylan Kurdi washed up on the shores of Turkey, ISIS accused in its magazine Dabiq those leaving of apostasy for being “under the constant threat of fornication, sodomy, drugs and alcohol.”
For ISIS, holding the Syrians and the Iraqis hostage in its state of thugs and rapists is key to its survival. Subjugating entire cities and indoctrinating a new generation of Syrian and Iraqi children with an ideology of hate and terror is how the group will sustain itself and its future. The rulers of the so-called Caliphate could care less about the fate of the refugees irrelevant of their religion. In Paris, ISIS is attempting to incriminate a whole population with a cowardly terrorist hiding behind a fake passport.
When political leaders in the West use fear mongering and single out Muslim refugees leaving Syria, they are inadvertently supporting ISIS’ argument that the Muslim population is not welcome in the land of "infidels". While security concerns are valid towards anyone crossing the borders from Syria, and while more regional countries have to do their share in taking in refugees, vetting and structured resettlement programs is the way to address the crisis. Singling out and blocking the refugees, or marginalizing them in camps and under miserable living conditions is a recipe for ISIS’ infiltration.
The perpetrators of the Paris attacks come from the same ranks of those oppressing the Syrian people and turning them into refugees. Confusing the victim with oppressor is no way to defeat the terrorists or do justice for those murdered in cold blood in Paris, and others risking everything to flee ISIS.

Paris attacks cause strategy change against ISIS
Maria Dubovikova/Al Arabiya/November 19/15
More than 600 Iraqis have been killed in terrorist attacks so far this year. The number of victims of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in both countries runs into the thousands. This does not make the international community tremble. Internet users do not change their profile pictures to show support for those suffering. No one brings flowers to embassies, or rallies to pay tribute. Facebook does not launch its safety alert function. By calling the Paris massacre “an attack on the civilized world,” U.S. President Barack Obama has split the world into two pieces: one important and privileged, the other doomed to suffer and die. Thus we are ready to fight in Syria until the last Syrian, as they are not from the civilized world. France has shown readiness to cooperate with Russia, and has called for a global coalition with Russian participation. Far-right parties are strengthened by acts of terror in Europe, as more people are ready to see a terrorist in each Muslim. Xenophobia and Islamophobia rise, aggravating an already complex situation in Western countries. The West blames Islam and Muslims, not taking into account that the roots of the ongoing mess are in the West itself.
Jihadist roots
The roots come directly from the colonial era, and have been strengthened by global powers using the Muslim world as a chess board for their geopolitical games. Al-Qaeda was established following U.S. support for jihadist fighters against the foolish Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. ISIS appeared not due to the bloody Syrian regime, as we are used to hearing, but following the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.The Paris attacks have changed the strategy of the international community. France has shown readiness to cooperate with Russia, and has called for a global coalition with Russian participation. For the first time, the United States has started to target ISIS’s economic infrastructure. After the Paris attacks and the G20 summit, Russia announced that its plane that crashed over the Sinai was brought down by an explosion on board. Following this news, Moscow has doubled airstrikes in Syria.
All these new efforts, together with a chance to end the Syrian conflict, give hopes that ISIS will be destroyed in Syria and then Iraq. However, even ISIS’s destruction does not guarantee stability and security. The extremist and jihadist menace will continue to prevail worldwide, but will fade if strategies are developed to promote civil and religious education in the Middle East. All these efforts against ISIS could have been undertaken long ago. This could have saved 131 precious lives in Paris, and the Russian plane could have landed in Saint-Petersburg with happy tourists returning from Egypt. Hundreds or even thousands of lives could have been saved in the Middle East.

The Paris tragedy and Bashar al-Assad's future
Manuel Almeida/Al Arabiya/November 19/15
After the tragic events in Paris last week, a more muscular strategy from France, the U.S., and other governments already involved in operations in Syria and Iraq against ISIS was both expected and necessary. In words reminiscent of the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks, Prime Minister François Hollande classified the ISIS attacks in Paris as “an act of war”. From the outset of the Syrian crisis, the French government took a firm stance on Bashar al-Assad, who it saw as the main problem in Syria. When it became clear regime forces were systematically bombing the civilian population, France was the first Western state to cut ties with Damascus and recognize in 2012 the opposition Syrian National Council as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. The French government was also vocal about its willingness to use military force to establish safe zones for the Syrian opposition, under the conditions of a U.N. approval and other Western partners join in.
However, after the Paris attacks the French and other Western governments could be pushed to focus most of their military and, most importantly, political capabilities on the fight against ISIS, while wrongly heeding the arguments that Assad is a problem that can be dealt with later.
Hollande has rightly noted that Syria has become “the greatest factory of terrorists the world has ever known.” Yet that factory has a manager, Bashar al-Assad, who clearly needs retirement. In his speech to both houses of parliament on Monday, Hollande recalled that France is “seeking resolutely, tirelessly a political solution in which Assad cannot be a part but our enemy, our enemy in Syria, is Daesh [ISIS]”. In Western democracies, public opinion can go a long way to influence how elected governments deal with crises abroad. Particularly in the case of the Syrian conflict, the global threat represented by ISIS seems to have far more potential to shape public opinion than the refugee crisis or the more than a quarter of a million people killed in the conflict. Assad himself knows it. "The question that is being asked throughout France today is, was France's policy over the past five years the right one? The answer is no,” he said just a day after the Paris attacks, blaming it (as ISIS did) on French foreign policy.
Flawed logic
The notion that ISIS should be number one priority while the genocidal President of Syria is a matter to be dealt with when and if ISIS is defeated, is deeply flawed for a number of reasons beyond the obvious moral one. The key to defeat the radical group is a government willing and able to do so and with the capacity to bring on board much of the opposition; all the Assad regime is not. Any Syria expert will tell you Assad has avoided as much as possible to confront ISIS, focusing instead the regime’s military effort on the myriad of opposition groups that are not bent on exporting jihad. Not only that, Assad has struck deals with ISIS to buy oil and gas on the cheap from the radical group, as highlighted in a recent report by the Financial Times based on interviews with various Syrians employed in the energy sector. Thus, the regime gets the supply of energy to meet its electricity needs while providing a key source of income for the group’s terrorist activities. ISIS controls eight power plants in Syria, including three hydroelectric facilities and Syria’s largest gas plant.
In the early stages of the uprisings against his rule, Assad released hundreds of jihadists from Syria’s jails, contributing to his strategy of portraying the war as an existential battle between secular forces of moderation and fanatic religious militants. Yet for that desperate narrative to have any grounding, it would be necessary to ignore the thousands of groups and sub-groups that form the Sunni opposition. Plus, with Iranian forces and all the Shiite militias from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan fighting for the regime, Assad can hardly claim to be non-sectarian. The Assad regime is also responsible for the great majority of civilian casualties, a great portion of which via its incessant campaign of airstrikes on urban areas. This has been part of the strategy to radicalize the opposition and make the urban areas not controlled by the regime are almost unlivable. Ironically, Assad and ISIS need each other to survive. As Hussein Ibish, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington D.C., recently put it: “The key factor in the rise of ISIS in Syria has clearly been its politically symbiotic relationship with the Assad dictatorship in Damascus. On paper, these two entities despise each other and could hardly be more ideologically and politically hostile. Yet in practice, they share an overwhelming interest in ensuring that the conflict in Syria is as brutal and sectarian as possible.”
New problems, old tactics
Extreme brutality against its own population and the use of terrorism and jihadists in Syria and beyond to achieve its goals are old strategies of the Assad regime, going back to the days of Bashar’s father, Hafez. In 1982, in the city of Hama north of Damascus, the Syrian army and security forces under the command of Hafez’s younger brother, General Rifaat al-Assad, put a brutal end to an uprising against the government led by the Muslim Brotherhood. In less than a month, at least 30.000 people were killed in Hama, the majority of them civilians. In 2004-2005, when the investigation into the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was knocking on Bashar’s door, he encouraged Hezbollah to steer trouble in Lebanon and assassinations of anti-Syrian regime figures and bombings continued. Assad also intensified the regime-managed flow of militants to Iraq, as counterweight to the Bush doctrine and payback for the Syrian Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of December 2003.Hollande has rightly noted that Syria has become “the greatest factory of terrorists the world has ever known.” Yet that factory has a manager, Bashar al-Assad, who clearly needs retirement. Otherwise, the war against ISIS or whatever radical group emerges from its remainings is likely to last a few generations.

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Click Here to go to the LCCC Daily English/Arabic News Buletins Archieves Since 2006