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You are from your father the devil, and you choose to do your father’s desires
Holy Gospel of Jesus Christ according to Saint John 08/41-45: "You are indeed doing what your father does.’ They said to him, ‘We are not illegitimate children; we have one father, God himself.’Jesus said to them, ‘If God were your Father, you would love me, for I came from God and now I am here. I did not come on my own, but he sent me. Why do you not understand what I say? It is because you cannot accept my word. You are from your father the devil, and you choose to do your father’s desires. He was a murderer from the beginning and does not stand in the truth, because there is no truth in him. When he lies, he speaks according to his own nature, for he is a liar and the father of lies. But because I tell the truth, you do not believe me."

It is not the hearers of the law who are righteous in God’s sight, but the doers of the law who will be justified
Letter to the Romans 02/09-16: "There will be anguish and distress for everyone who does evil, the Jew first and also the Greek, but glory and honour and peace for everyone who does good, the Jew first and also the Greek. For God shows no partiality. All who have sinned apart from the law will also perish apart from the law, and all who have sinned under the law will be judged by the law. For it is not the hearers of the law who are righteous in God’s sight, but the doers of the law who will be justified. When Gentiles, who do not possess the law, do instinctively what the law requires, these, though not having the law, are a law to themselves.They show that what the law requires is written on their hearts, to which their own conscience also bears witness; and their conflicting thoughts will accuse or perhaps excuse them. on the day when, according to my gospel, God, through Jesus Christ, will judge the secret thoughts of all."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 17-18/15
Liberal Canadian Government: The Pile Of Wrong Election Promises/ Elias Bejjani/November 17/15
Fearless Father Throws Himself On A Suicide Bomber, Saving ‘Hundreds’ Of Lives In Beirut/WorldNov 16, 2015
The Terrorists Funded by the West/Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/November 17/15
National Security Threats vs. Defense Cuts/Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/November 17/15
Is it time for Israel to revisit its relationship with Sunni bloc/Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
Egypt rushes to bolster tourism after Sinai plane crash/Hala Ali/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
Why is Rouhani backing off from those profiting from sanctions/Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
After Paris, Iran spy chief warns Tehran could be next/Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
Erdogan’s march to one-man power/Kadri Gursel/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
Discussing the Middle East’s controversial crises/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
A new Cold War in the Middle East/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
World must act to destroy this terrorist disease/Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
Vienna communiqué on Syria needs additions/Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
The U.S. must send ground forces to eliminate the Islamic State/James F. Jeffrey/The Washington Institute.//November 17/15
Targeting Europe's Refugees Is Not the Answer/Aaron Y. Zelin/Washington Istitute/November 17/15

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on November 17-18/15
Liberal Canadian Government: The Pile Of Wrong Election Promises
Lebanese Army Carries Out Raids, Arrests in Wadi Khaled and Minieh
Report: Committee to Draft Electoral Law to be Formed Wednesday
Suicide Vests Seized in Tripoli as Suspects who Contacted Would-Be Bomber Held
Report: U.S. Military Official in Lebanon to Discuss Fight against Terror
Bassil Travels to Moscow to Address Presidential Elections, Combating Terrorism
Dialogue Parties Agree to 'Activate Cabinet, Export Garbage'
Mustaqbal Lauds Nasrallah Remarks, Says 'Real Solution' Begins by Electing President
Army Says Detainee Hujeiri Involved in Arsal Attacks on Clerics, Troops
Al-Nusra Demands 'Two Syrian Towns' in Return for Freeing Arsal Captives
Fearless Father Throws Himself On A Suicide Bomber, Saving ‘Hundreds’ Of Lives In Beirut

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 17-18/15
A Rush version of Phares' analysis
Germany-Netherlands Match Canceled over 'Explosion' Threat
French Police in Nationwide Raids as Global Resolve to Defeat IS Intensifies
Mogherini: EU Unanimously Supports France Assistance Request
Russia Confirms Bomb Downed Sinai Jet, Pounds IS as Egypt Says No 'Firm Conclusion' Yet
UK to Double Cyber-Security Funding, Push Syria Vote Post-Paris
Gulf Ministers Express Solidarity with France
New U.N. Libya Envoy Makes Security His Priority
King of Jordan Warns of 'World War' against Humanity
Hollande and Iran's Rouhani Discuss Syria by Phone
Births in Syria Down More Than 50% since War
Yemen President Returns to Aden from Saudi Exile
'French Jihadist' Made Audio Recording Claiming Paris Attacks
Iran army exercise simulates response to ISIS attack
Russia targets Raqqa, U.S. strikes more ISIS oil facilities
Israel to lift freeze on marketing of 454 settler homes in East Jerusalem
Kerry says ISIS feeling the pressure, losing ground
Russia ‘outraged’ at accusations it killed civilians in Syria
Palestinian official: Gaza border deal reached with Egypt

Links From Jihad Watch Site for November 17-18/15
UK Muslim couple planned jihad suicide bombing of subway or shopping center for the Islamic State
In response to Paris jihad attacks, Huffington Post calls for “elimination of all world religions”
Free speech victory: California school board allows students to draw Muhammad
German soccer match canceled after police discover bomb truck disguised as ambulance
Kerry: Paris jihad massacre “different” from Charlie Hebdo jihad murders, which had a “rationale”
Germany-Netherlands soccer game canceled, stadium is being evacuated — Merkel was set to attend match
Italy: Bob Dylan concerts to have armed guards
Robert Spencer in Front Page: Post-Paris, Obama Doubles Down: More Refugees Coming
Boston’s MBTA runs anti-Israel ads — as we take them to the Supreme Court for banning our pro-Israel ads
Syrian ambassador to India says that over 20% of refugees to Europe may have links to the Islamic State
Video: Robert Spencer on Hannity on the Syrian refugee crisis
BWI Airport: Flight about to take off called back to gate, four people of “Middle Eastern descent” removed from plane
UK Home Secretary Theresa May: the Paris jihad attacks ‘have nothing to do with Islam’
Syrian passports found at Paris jihad attacks scene were fakes made in Turkey
Now 24 governors have refused to take Syrian refugees

Liberal Canadian Government: The Pile Of Wrong Election Promises
Elias Bejjani/November 17/15
The unfolding terrorist bloody events in whole Europe, and specially in France proves that all the Liberal Party's election platform on Foreign Policy and Terrorism were uncalculated, unwise and far from reality. I even doubt they will be able to fulfill their childish promise to end the Canadian military role in Iraq and Syria if really they want Canada to remain a partner in fighting terrorism. Meanwhile while the whole world is trying to contain fanaticism and its symbols, especially the Arab countries, the Canadian Liberal PM, Mr. Trudeau oak's the NIQAB in Canada, What a naive approach.

Lebanese Army Carries Out Raids, Arrests in Wadi Khaled and Minieh
Naharnet/November 17/15/The army arrested several Syrian nationals in raids on the border town of Wadi Khaled and the northern district of Minieh, the state-run National News Agency reported on Tuesday. The army carried out raids on the Bqayaa neighborhood in Wadi Khaled and some residential compounds of Syrians where it arrested several, NNA added. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) also said that 33 Syrian nationals were arrested in army raids in Tripoli's Minieh, without giving any details. The army intensified security measures in all Lebanese regions particularly following Thursday's Bourj al-Barajneh twin blasts that left scores dead and hundreds injured.

Report: Committee to Draft Electoral Law to be Formed Wednesday
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Speaker Nabih Berri has called on the Parliament Bureau on Wednesday to form the committee charged with drafting a new electoral law within a two-month period, the March 14 alliance was informed according to al Joumhouria daily on Tuesday. The committee will be charged with drafting the law and to find common factors within the existing laws within a two-month period. Head of the Kataeb party MP Sami Gemayel will not take part in the parliamentary dialogue session to be held today, as he denounces the failure of the cabinet to convene in the wake of the terror attacks that hit the country. The 10th national dialogue session will be held at noon at Ain el-Tineh. According to the daily, an agreement has been reached and that the March 14 alliance will continue with prioritizing the presidential elections that pave way to resolve other pressing issues. On the other hand, today's dialogue session is set to address the cabinet paralysis as it went dysfunctional over the controversial trash file, unnamed ministerial sources told An Nahar daily. Twin suicide bombings rocked the area of Bourj al-Barajneh south of Beirut on Thursday killing at least 46 people and wounding more than 200.

Suicide Vests Seized in Tripoli as Suspects who Contacted Would-Be Bomber Held
Naharnet/November 17/15/“Large quantities” of explosives, “armed” suicide vests and detonators were seized Tuesday in the northern city of Tripoli as the Internal Security Forces arrested a number of suspects accused of having communicated with a would-be suicide bomber prior to his arrest, media reports said. A patrol from the Intelligence Bureau's Strike Force carried out raids in the city's al-Qobbeh district where it arrested several terror suspects, LBCI television said. The suspects had been “in contact with the detainee Ibrahim al-Jamal, who was arrested a week ago in al-Qobbeh carrying a suicide belt,” LBCI said. “Large quantities of explosives, armed suicide vests and detonators were seized,” it added. The ISF also raided Tripoli's al-Dam wal Farz area, arresting two men suspected of having ties to the two Islamic State suicide bombers who blew themselves up in the Beirut southern suburb of Bourj al-Barajneh, LBCI said. Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) identified one of them as Ahmed Merhi, noting that the raiding force had seized all CCTV footage from the area's cafes.

Report: U.S. Military Official in Lebanon to Discuss Fight against Terror
Naharnet/November 17/15/Commander of the U.S. Air Forces Central Command, Lieutenant General Charles Brown, arrived in Lebanon on Monday for talks with officials on means to combat terrorism, reported al-Joumhouria newspaper on Tuesday. Discussions will focus on coordinating efforts to confront terrorism and to properly equip the army, through weapons and the necessary training. The visit comes in wake of Thursday's Bourj al-Barajneh twin suicide bombing that left over 43 people dead. U.S. Charge d'Affaires Richard Jones had held talks on Monday with Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil to offer his condolences over the attack. Brown's visit was scheduled prior to last week's bombing.

Bassil Travels to Moscow to Address Presidential Elections, Combating Terrorism
Naharnet/November 17/15/Foreign Minister Jebran Bassil is scheduled to travel to Russia later on Tuesday on an official two-day visit, reported An Nahar daily. He is set to hold talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on combating terrorism, as well as the resolving presidential deadlock in Lebanon, revealed a diplomatic source to the daily. Russian deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov is also expected to attend the talks. Lebanon has been without a president since May 2014 when the term of Michel Suleiman ended without the election of a successor. Ongoing disputes between the rival March 8 and 14 camps over a compromise candidate have thwarted the polls.

Dialogue Parties Agree to 'Activate Cabinet, Export Garbage'
Naharnet/November 17/15/The country's political parties agreed during a national dialogue session on Tuesday to “activate the work of state institutions, especially the cabinet,” as reports said that they also decided to export the accumulating garbage as a solution to the waste disposal crisis. “The conferees stressed the need to activate the work of state institutions, especially the cabinet, in order to address the pressing issues,” said an official statement issued after the talks in Ain al-Tineh. Condemning the deadly suicide bombings that hit Bourj al-Barajneh, the parties lauded “the sweeping national consensus on deploring it and the solidarity that was expressed by all political parties in the face of terrorism.” They also praised the efforts of security agencies, “which managed to unveil all the details of this crime and arrest the culprits in record time,” underlining the importance of “maintaining coordination among them (security agencies) to preserve stability and foil any terrorist plots.”The next session will be held on November 25. Tuesday's session was attended by Change and Reform bloc leader MP Michel Aoun, who had sent a representative to many previous meetings, amid the absence of the Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb Party. According to information obtained by LBCI television, the conferees “discussed the issue of exporting garbage” and the need to “schedule a cabinet session” to approve this step upon the completion of the preparations. “The session was very beneficial but things need patience,” Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat told reporters after the dialogue session. During the meeting, Aoun said that the new electoral law must ensure “fairness and proper representation” and must “rectify the flaws without any ambiguity.” “The war of terrorism has become global,” he added, noting that “it must be confronted through a comprehensive plan, not partial solutions.”'

Mustaqbal Lauds Nasrallah Remarks, Says 'Real Solution' Begins by Electing President
Naharnet/November 17/15/Al-Mustaqbal parliamentary bloc welcomed Tuesday Hizbullah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah's recent call for a political settlement, while stressing that the “real political solution” must start with the election of a new president. Nasrallah's remarks were “good and positive, especially in terms of his commitment to the Taef Accord and the Constitution, away from the idea of the constituent assembly,” said the bloc in a statement issued after its weekly meeting. “Sayyed Nasrallah's statements must be utilized in the proper direction, specifically in the key issue of the presidential election,” it added. The bloc noted that an agreement on the presidency would “immunize Lebanon and protect it against the surrounding and impending threats.” “That must be accompanied by practical steps to defuse the tensions that are being aggravated by the practices and approaches of some parties,” it added. Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and some of their allies have been boycotting electoral sessions aimed at choosing a new president for more than a year now. They are demanding that political parties agree on a candidate before heading to parliament for a vote. Nasrallah had on Saturday reiterated his call for reaching a “comprehensive” settlement in Lebanon, saying that officials should take advantage of the “positive political atmosphere” that was reached after last week's legislative session. In an earlier speech, he had called for a “comprehensive political settlement” over the issues of the stalled presidential vote, the next government and the electoral law that should be approved for the parliamentary polls. Separately, al-Mustaqbal bloc called on the government to hold an extraordinary session to address “the security developments and the continued garbage disposal crisis.”

Army Says Detainee Hujeiri Involved in Arsal Attacks on Clerics, Troops
Naharnet/November 17/15/The detainee Mohammed Ibrahim al-Hujeiri, aka Kahroub, was involved in the bomb attacks that killed a number of Syrian Muslim clerics and wounded Lebanese troops in the northeastern border town of Arsal, the army said Tuesday. “Along with a man called Abou Ali al-Yabroudi, the detainee Hujeiri collected information about the time and place of the meeting that the Qalamoun Scholars Committee held in Arsal,” the Army Command said in a statement. “They then tasked the Syrian Abou Firas with booby-trapping a motorbike and parking it outside the meeting's venue and blowing it up on November 5,” it added. At least six clerics were killed and several others wounded in the explosion. Hujeiri was also involved in a bombing that targeted an army vehicle in Arsal the next day. “In collaboration with al-Yabroudi, Abou Firas and Abou Ali al-Asiri, he targeted a military personnel carrier with a roadside bomb,” the army said. Five soldiers were wounded in the bombing. The man has also confessed to booby-trapping “ten motorcycles with the aim of carrying out assassinations inside Arsal,” the army added. Hujeiri also has a long record of activities with several extremist groups. During his cooperation with al-Yabroudi, their group booby-trapped five cars with the aim of “targeting army posts, facilitating the entry of militants, and enabling them to reach Tripoli to seize control of an outlet to the sea.” Hujeiri, who had ties to the Islamic State's Qalamoun branch, had also been a member of the Seif al-Haq group led by the Syrian Amin Mohammed Ghourli, which comprises Lebanese and Syrian nationals, the army said. The group was behind firing rockets at Hermel, monitoring a judge's house with the aim of abducting him, and distributing ammo to militants during the deadly Arsal battles with the army. Hujeiri had also created an IS cell in the town in order to monitor individuals who cooperate with Lebanese security agencies, the army added.

Al-Nusra Demands 'Two Syrian Towns' in Return for Freeing Arsal Captives
Naharnet/November 17/15/Al-Qaida's Syria branch al-Nusra Front has demanded control over two regime-held Syrian towns near Lebanon and the release of five women from Lebanese jails in return for freeing the captive Lebanese servicemen, a spokesman for the hostages' families said on Monday.
“Al-Nusra's emir in Syria's Qalamoun, Abou Malek al-Talli, has sent a new demand with the families who visit their sons every now and then in the vicinity of (the Lebanese border town of) Arsal,” Hussein Youssef, the father of captive soldier Mohammed Youssef, told Turkey's state news agency Anatolia. Al-Talli wants “control over the towns of al-Maara and Flita and the release of five women from Lebanese jails in return for freeing the captives who are in his custody,” Youssef said. He revealed that the families had passed on the new demands to Prime Minister Tammam Salam during their meeting with him on Monday. “We have full confidence in the premier and in General Security chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and High Relief Council chief Maj. Gen. Mohammed Kheir, who are following up on the case with notable seriousness,” the spokesman added. Asked about the families' channels of communication with al-Nusra Front, Youssef said the messages are being exchanged through “mediators.”He however noted that contacts have been severed with the extremist Islamic State group for months now. “We don't know anything about our sons who are in the custody of this group,” he added. The towns of al-Maara and Flita are currently under the control of the Syrian regime and Hizbullah, according to Anatolia. Syria's civil war has regularly spilled over into Lebanon, with Nusra and IS jihadists briefly overrunning the town of Arsal in August 2014 after gunbattles with the Lebanese army. The jihadists withdrew after a ceasefire, but took with them several dozen hostages from the army and police, four of whom have since been executed.

Fearless Father Throws Himself On A Suicide Bomber, Saving ‘Hundreds’ Of Lives In Beirut
WorldNov 16, 2015
http://www.dailytimesgazette.com/fearless-father-throws-himself-on-a-suicide-bomber-saving-hundreds-of-lives-in-beirut/32714/
A father, with his young daughter watching, sacrificed himself to save others when Beirut was struck by terrorists last week.
Two assaults during rush hour in Lebanon’s capital city killed 45 and wounded more than 200 others, the day before the horrific massacre in central Paris left the world reeling. If not for the heroic activities of one man, the death toll would have been considerably higher. And now, days later, his heroism is being recognized. Amid the instant mayhem, Termos made the quick choice to undertake him to the ground, and spotted the second bomber preparing to blow himself up. The bomb went off, saving innumerable others, including his daughter’s, although killing Termos. “In a way, Adel Termos broke human nature of self-preservation. His heroism transcended his own life to save others,” Fares told The Washington Post in an email Monday. “To make that type of decision in a split second, to decide that you had rather save hundreds than to go back home to your family, to decide that the collective lives of those around you are more important than your own is something that I believe no one will ever comprehend.” Fares had instantaneously shared Termos’s story, and it was covered by local media there, particularly as the news cycle was rapidly consumed by news of the Paris assaults, but it went largely undetected by the international community. But in Lebanon, Termos was forthwith famous, memorialized in dialogs and Facebook posts, Fares told PRI last week.
After the Thursday attacks, Fares, on his own website, wrote about Termos: “Tonight, Adel is no longer of this world, but his legacy will live on for many years, along with the repercussions of his heroism will eventually be a narrative to tell: Adel is the reason we are not talking about fatalities in the three digits now, he is the reason some families still have their sons, daughters, fathers and mothers, he’s a Lebanese hero whose name ought to be front and centre in each factory outlet.”“When my people perished, they did not send the planet in mourning,” Fares wrote. “Their departure was but an insignificant fleck along the international news cycle, something which happens in those regions of the world.”Why, Fares said in his e-mail Monday, that is, it took several days for Termos’ story to be known, and shared, outside Lebanon. “When the attacks in which his heroism manifested are not heard about or emphasized enough, the details of these attacks will also get pushed to the side,” he said. “Adel contained.”

A Rush version of Phares' analysis
Walid Phares
Close to midnight I read a long commentary by nationally syndicated radio talk show Rush Limbaugh citing my interview on Fox News today. I had argued that the major reason why President Obama isn't crushing ISIS, and there are more than one reason, is the Iranian factor. Rush quoted several paragraphs from the transcript. Later I read on my twitter page and on my Facebook public page many fans and friends asking me: "now we see the big picture and it make sense. The US can dismantle ISIS militarily, of course, but there is something blocking such a decision. They asked me: If indeed it is because of the Iran Deal, why would President Obama accept the Iranian position on how to fight ISIS or how not to fight it? I had argued that the Iranian regime is vehemently opposed to any joint military campaign to seize Reqqa and Mosul. Why? Because if Arab moderates destroy ISIS, they will replace it and empower their Sunni partners in Syria and Iraq. This is exactly what Iran, Assad and Hezbollah are opposed to and they are fighting against. So President Obama has to make a tough choice. Would he invite the Arabs to attack ISIS and finish it? Or would he accept the Iranian position that no Arab Sunnis would be leading the fight? That's the bottom line and it is very simple. But more important, this assessment is very widespread in the Arab world. The only place where people are not aware of it, happens to be the United States, thanks to a selective mainstream media. As for the question regarding why would the Administration adhere to the Iranian demand, the answer is vast and is in my book "The Lost Spring" and in the one I am writing right now.

Germany-Netherlands Match Canceled over 'Explosion' Threat
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/German police said a credible bomb threat forced them to call off a football match Tuesday that was meant as a "symbol of freedom" after the Paris attacks and was to be attended by Chancellor Angela Merkel. Hanover city police chief Volker Kluwe said there had been "serious plans to cause an explosion" in the 49,000-capacity stadium, and that authorities had acted on "a concrete threat scenario.""We received a serious indication that a bomb attack was planned inside the stadium tonight," he told public broadcaster ARD. Thousands of fans were evacuated, without signs of panic, from Hanover's HDI Arena, as hundreds of police, some on horseback, secured the area. Merkel had already arrived at the venue but was quickly ushered out, while the national side had not yet arrived, media reports said. The German team was playing France in Paris last Friday when players and fans were shaken by the blasts of three jihadist suicide bombers outside the Stade de France that echoed through the venue.Head coach Joachim Loew had called Tuesday's planned match "a clear message and symbol of freedom and a demonstration of compassion, as well as sorrow, for our French friends -- not only in France, but throughout the world."Before the match, players had been practicing the French anthem "La Marseillaise", which they had been set to sing in a sign of solidarity with the shaken neighboring nation.
- 'Against fear and terrorism' -
"They wanted to make a statement against fear and terrorism, but it wasn't to be," said disappointed fan Philipp Beckermann, 38, who was heading away from the stadium.
"We didn't even get into the stadium before we heard it was called off," he said, walking away with his girlfriend Judith. "There was no information about why the game was called off, security has to come first I guess. But it's going to be a pretty sad journey back to Dortmund for us now for nothing." The victims of the Paris attacks -- which claimed at least 129 lives with more than 350 injured -- had been set to be honored by candlelight in what had been described as "a friendly in the true sense of the word."The German Football Association (DFB) had at the weekend already come close to calling off the match, while Belgium have canceled their friendly against Spain on Tuesday. "We want to take this opportunity to use light as a sign of sympathy to the world," the chairman of the Friends of Hanover, Roger Cericius, had told the Hannoversche Allgemeine newspaper. The German team are still coming to terms with what they experienced last Friday during their international against France. After the blasts, the Germans spent the night in the Stade de France changing room, as it was still considered too dangerous to cross Paris, before flying home early the next morning. "There was a lot of fear and anxiety in the dressing room that night," said Loew. "We were afraid."

French Police in Nationwide Raids as Global Resolve to Defeat IS Intensifies
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/French warplanes pounded Islamic State targets and Russia vowed to ramp up its bombing campaign in Syria on Tuesday as the devastating attacks on Paris galvanized international resolve to destroy the jihadists and end the Syrian war. In a grieving Paris, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said a "big transition" in Syria was probably only weeks away as he expressed solidarity with the French nation after IS gunmen and suicide bombers massacred 129 people in the capital on Friday night. Kerry said an agreement between deeply divided countries such as Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia on a path to elections in Syria at talks held in Vienna Saturday was a "gigantic step," and he expected rapid progress. "We are weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition for Syria," he said. The quickening political process came as French President Francois Hollande vowed to pursue IS mercilessly for their "acts of war" and Russia sought vengeance after finally confirming it believed a bomb attack did bring down a Russian passenger jet over Egypt last month that killed 224 people. The IS group which operates out of Iraq and Syria claimed responsibility for downing the airliner as well as a bombing in Beirut last week. "My sense is that everybody understands that... we have to step up our efforts to hit them (IS) at the core where they're planning these things," said Kerry. "We've agreed to exchange more information, and I'm convinced that over the course of the next weeks, Daesh will feel even greater pressure," he added, using another term for IS. Hollande will visit Washington next week to meet President Barack Obama, and is also planning a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming days. And as the probe into the horror intensified, French police carried out more than 100 raids for a second night running, as a manhunt continued for 26-year-old Salah Abdeslam, one of two Belgium-based brothers implicated.
Paris grieves
In Paris, stunned residents continued to flock to shrines of candles and flowers, while photographs of smiling young victims have been pasted at attack sites or outside their places of work. The city is palpably more shaken than after the January attacks which killed 17 people at Charlie Hebdo magazine and a Jewish supermarket, but many have defiantly returned to sidewalk terrace cafes where they can be heard poring over the details of the assault.But a shadow still hangs over the City of Light four days after IS suicide bombers and gunmen struck as Parisians watched a France-Germany football match, a concert by Californian group Eagles of Death Metal, or enjoyed a night out at restaurants and sidewalk cafes. In the Syrian city of Raqa, the stronghold of IS, French warplanes destroyed a command center and training center in its second series of airstrikes in 24 hours, according to Prime Minister Manuel Valls. Hollande said Monday that the Paris attacks were "decided and planned in Syria, prepared and organized in Belgium (and) perpetrated on our soil with French complicity."
Russia strikes
Hollande also said the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle would be deployed to the eastern Mediterranean to "triple our capacity to take action" against IS in Syria. Russia on Tuesday also staged a "significant number" of air strikes on Raqa. The focus of the investigation was Salah Abdeslam, whose sibling Brahim blew himself up outside a bar in Paris, seriously injuring one person. Police found a second car rented by Salah, while his brother was found to have rented an apartment in the gritty Parisian suburb of Bobigny a few days before the attack. Investigators believe Belgian jihadist Abdelhamid Abaaoud, who is based in Syria and knew Salah Abdeslam, may be the mastermind of the attacks. Five of the Paris assailants have already been identified, but it is not known how many fled.
'Sing for France'
IS has repeatedly urged assaults on France which has seen a litany of attacks and foiled attacks since January, from a man who beheaded his boss to another who was overpowered as he opened fire on a high-speed train. The French minister in charge of transport, Segolene Royal, said she wanted security gates at the access of all local and international trains. This proposal followed a raft of measures unveiled by Hollande in a historic speech to parliament on Monday, in which he called for an extension of the state of emergency by three months and announced 8,500 new jobs to help counter-terrorism. In the latest outpouring of international empathy for the French trauma, England fans have been urged to join in a rendition of the French anthem La Marseillaise before France return to action in a friendly match against England in London on Tuesday. The words "Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite" in the colours of the French flag lit up Wembley Stadium, where the match will be played. Big screens at the stadium will display the words, which were also printed on the back of The Sun and Daily Mirror tabloids. The Sun instructed readers to "sing for France."

Mogherini: EU Unanimously Supports France Assistance Request
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/European Union defense ministers on Tuesday unanimously backed France's request for help with military missions in the wake of the Paris attacks, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said. "France has requested aid and assistance in accordance with article 42-7. It's an article that has never been used before in the history of our union," Mogherini said, referring to part of the EU treaties that provides for solidarity of member states in the event one of them is attacked. "Today the EU through the voices of all the member states unanimously expressed its strongest full support and readiness to give the assistance needed," she told a press conference in Brussels with French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian. "France will be in contact bilaterally in coming hours and days to express the support it requires and the EU will ensure the greatest effectiveness in our common response," former Italian foreign minister Mogherini added. The French minister said the EU's support was a "political act of great significance".Le Drian said it would "allow us in the hours to come to have bilateral talks where necessary" with other EU states to establish what aid France needed. This aid could either be in support of France's Syria airstrikes but also in other theaters, adding that France "can't be everywhere at the same time." "I felt a lot of emotion from my colleagues" over the Paris attacks claimed by the Islamic State group which left 129 people dead, he said, adding that many of his counterparts had addressed him personally in French to pay their respects.

Russia Confirms Bomb Downed Sinai Jet, Pounds IS as Egypt Says No 'Firm Conclusion' Yet
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Russia on Tuesday pounded Islamic States targets in Syria after confirming that a bomb attack brought down its passenger jet over Egypt last month, killing all 224 people on board. President Vladimir Putin pledged to hunt down and "punish" those behind the attack but did not blame any specific group as he ordered an intensification of Moscow's campaign in Syria, vowing "vengeance."Russia's security agency announced a $50-million (47 million-euro) reward for information leading to the capture of those behind the attack but Egypt said investigators had yet to reach their conclusion about what brought down the Airbus jet. Cairo said that it was enhancing security in airports around the country over the possibility that the Russian plane that crashed in the Sinai peninsula shortly after leaving Sharm el-Sheikh resort on October 31 might have been destroyed by a bomb. "It is not the first time that Russia confronts barbaric terrorist crimes," Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a meeting with his security chiefs. "The murder of our people in Sinai is among the bloodiest crimes in terms of victims," he said in comments released Tuesday, vowing to hunt down those responsible. "We will search for them anywhere they might hide. We will find them in any part of the world and punish them," he said. Moscow's confirmation of the attack -- the deadliest against a Russian target since the Beslan school massacre by Islamist rebels from the North Caucasus in 2004 -- comes days after a chain of attacks claimed by the Islamic State group killed at least 129 people in Paris. Putin and French leader Francois Hollande agreed in a phone call to "ensure closer contact and coordination" on Syria between their armies and security services, the Kremlin said, as the Russian strongman ordered his navy to work with French forces in the Mediterranean "as allies."Russia is backing forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad in the fight against what it says are IS and other "terrorist" groups while France is part of a separate U.S.-led coalition targeting IS.
'Homemade' bomb
Russia's security chief Alexander Bortnikov told Putin that traces of explosives of "foreign production" had been found on the plane wreckage and that the jet carrying tourists back from Egypt was brought by a home-made bomb with a force equivalent to one kilo of TNT. "We can say unequivocally that this was a terrorist attack," Federal Security Service (FSB) head Bortnikov said. The FSB later said it would pay "$50 million for information helping to arrest the criminals" and Russia's foreign ministry announced it was asking its "overseas partners" to help track down the perpetrators. A group linked to IS had earlier claimed responsibility for downing the plane, and Russia had halted all flights to Egypt while refusing to initially endorse growing suspicions in Britain and the United States that the plane was blown up. An Egyptian-led probe has yet to confirm the bombing but the country's interior ministry said it was stepping up airport security across Egypt given "the possibility that it was targeted by a terrorist attack.""Taking into consideration all possible causes behind the plane crash, including the possibility that it was targeted by a terrorist attack, the Egyptian authorities have enhanced security measures in all airports," said the interior ministry. The statement came as an Egyptian minister said a probe had yet to reach any final conclusions about the disaster, in remarks shortly after Russia announced a bomb had brought down the aircraft. "Until now the (investigation) committee has not yet arrived to any results indicating the cause of the crash," Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamal told a news conference.
The plane, flown by Russian firm Kogalymavia, came down shortly after take off from resort Sharm el-Sheikh on October 31, killing all 224 people on board in Russia's worst air disaster. The disaster prompted Britain to restrict flights to the resort, and Moscow to all Egyptian airports while barring the country's national carrier EgyptAir from Russia. Egypt's interior ministry said on Tuesday that there was a review of screening measures for passengers and luggage, "and enhancement of search procedures for passengers and workers upon entry into the airport."The ministry added "security sweeps" of airplanes would be conducted as well as "reviews of flight crews' security permits."It is not known how a bomb would have been smuggled on the doomed plane before it set off from the popular Red Sea resort, but there have been suspicions of an inside job. The interior ministry said in a separate statement on Tuesday that there have been no arrests at the airport over the incident. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond had said failures in security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport may have enabled the attack. "You don't need a sophisticated capability to get a small bomb, and that's all you need to bring down an aircraft, a small bomb with a straightforward timer. "Sadly there are many, many people who can do that. The issue is about getting it air side in an airport that is supposed to be secure," said Hammond. "Where this points the finger is at the capability of the security on the ground at Sharm el-Sheikh."The UK-based PGI risk management group said in a report that the disaster had "cast a spotlight on the prospect of an insider threat at airports, which requires an alternative security response."Security changes could cause airport delays and extra costs, the group said. "There will likely be some resistance from the aviation industry to knee-jerk measures, for example proposals for passengers to identify their luggage before being loaded onto aircraft," the report said. "Nonetheless, airports will inevitably feel pressure to adopt tighter security practices due to reputational and competitive disadvantages of perceived non-compliance with new security norms."Putin did not expressly blame IS for the attack on the passenger jet but pledged to ramp up air strikes in Syria, "so that the criminals understand that vengeance is inevitable."Moscow on Tuesday for the first time sent its powerful long-range bombers to strike IS targets in the provinces around the jihadist strongholds of Raqa and Deir Ezzor and to fire cruise missiles at Idlib and Aleppo regions. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said 206 "terrorist" targets had been hit in the latest wave of strikes. France has also ratcheted up its strikes against IS targets around Raqa since the bloody attacks in Paris. Hollande will meet next week with Obama and Putin, as part of broad diplomatic push to end the war in Syria. Putin has called for a united coalition against IS in Syria and on Monday reiterated that the attacks in France showed it was "indispensable" to join forces against the jihadists.

UK to Double Cyber-Security Funding, Push Syria Vote Post-Paris
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Britain vowed Tuesday to double its investment in cyber-security to counter threats including from the Islamic State group following the Paris attacks claimed by IS which killed at least 129 people. Prime Minister David Cameron also announced he would make a fresh effort to build support for Britain to join air strikes on Syria, saying there was now a "compelling case" for doing so. Britain has so far stayed out of the strikes on IS group targets in Syria due to opposition from parliament. But Cameron said he would outline a "comprehensive strategy" to lawmakers soon in the hope of persuading opponents. At the headquarters of Britain's electronic spy agency GCHQ in southwest England, finance minister George Osborne said funding to tackle cyber warfare and crime would be doubled to £1.9 billion (2.7 billion euros, $2.8 billion) a year by 2020. Osborne added that, while IS jihadists did not yet have the capability for attacking Britain's infrastructure through the web, "we know they want it, and are doing their best to build it.""If our electricity supply, or our air traffic control, or our hospitals were successfully attacked online, the impact could be measured not just in terms of economic damage but of lives lost," he said. GCHQ was tackling twice as many cyber-attacks that posed a threat to national security than it was a year ago, Osborne said.On Monday, Cameron had announced plans to recruit an extra 1,900 security and intelligence staff to counter the terror threat following the Paris attacks.
'A strong vote'?
Dressed in a black suit and tie after signing a book of condolence for the Paris dead, the prime minister told the House of Commons in a statement on the attacks that he wanted to make a fresh case for a vote on joining air strikes in Syria. Britain is already taking part in air strikes on Iraq and Cameron's government has long wanted to extend this to Syria. But it has vowed to make any such decision conditional on parliamentary approval, and would face a tough battle in parliament with pacifist, left-winger Jeremy Corbyn at the helm of the main opposition Labor party. No vote on the issue has yet been called.
"My firm conviction is that we need to act against ISIL (another term for IS) in Syria. There is a compelling case for doing so," Cameron told the Commons. "I will set out our comprehensive strategy for dealing with ISIL, our vision for a more stable and peaceful Middle East. This strategy in my view should include taking the action in Syria I've spoken about."He added that he hoped that would lead to "a strong vote" on the issue while stopping short of a firm commitment to that. Cameron's reluctance to proceed without a parliamentary consensus is linked to a scarring defeat his previous government suffered in 2013 over its plan to join international military action against the Assad regime's use of chemical weapons in Syria due to Labor opposition.

Gulf Ministers Express Solidarity with France
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Gulf foreign ministers expressed solidarity with France Tuesday after attacks claimed by the Islamic State group killed at least 129 people in Paris. "The ministers affirmed the support of the Gulf Cooperation Council to France and her friendly people at this difficult moment," the six-nation bloc's secretary general said in a statement after a meeting in the Saudi capital. Friday's shootings and suicide blasts "will only reinforce the determination of France and the entire world to continue to combat terrorism and uproot these organizations hostile to human civilization," said GCC Secretary General Abdullatif al-Zayani. The statement came at a ministerial meeting to prepare for the GCC's annual summit in December. The GCC includes the Sunni-dominated monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar,Kuwait and Oman. Since September 2014, French warplanes based in the Gulf have been flying missions against the Sunni extremist Islamic State group in Iraq. France extended its attacks on IS to Syria in September this year. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE also carried out air strikes against IS in Syria as part of a United States-led coalition, although their participation in that campaign diminished after a Saudi-led alliance in March began bombing Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.

New U.N. Libya Envoy Makes Security His Priority
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Veteran German diplomat Martin Kobler took up his new job as U.N. special envoy for Libya Tuesday, saying security will be his priority as he presses a faltering peace deal. Kobler said he was "full of hope and determination" as he took over the position of head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) from Spaniard Bernardino Leon. "Only through dialogue and unity can stability be attained and the state’s authority restored," a statement said, adding that he will meet Libyan political players in the coming days in a bid to push for a peace deal. "I will listen to the members of the political dialogue and the proposed presidency council as well as various other Libyan partners to address and finalize the remaining small number of outstanding issues," Kobler said. "I am determined to build on the momentum to bring about an endorsement of the Libyan Political Agreement in the immediate future."Kobler said his priority would be "to discuss security-related issues with the various actors" in order to achieve "durable peace" in Libya, which has been wracked by violence since a 2011 uprising ousted dictator Moammar Gadhafi. "We cannot afford to waste the hard work already done," he added. In an apparent bid to bolster Kobler's efforts, Italian Lieutenant General Paolo Serra has been appointed as his "senior adviser" for security matters, the mission said. Serra had previously served as head of mission of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, which monitors a ceasefire line between Israel and Lebanon. After almost a year of arduous negotiations, Leon had proposed in early October a power-sharing deal aimed at establishing a unity government. Under the deal, Libya would be governed by a nine-member presidential council made up of a prime minister, five deputy prime ministers and three senior ministers.But Libya's rival factions have rejected the deal. Oil-rich Libya has two administrations since August 2014, when an Islamist-backed militia alliance overran Tripoli, forcing the internationally recognized government to take refuge in the country’s east. A former ambassador to Iraq and Egypt, Kobler led the U.N. peace mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo over the past two years and has represented the United Nations in Afghanistan and Iraq.

King of Jordan Warns of 'World War' against Humanity
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/King Abdullah II of Jordan warned Tuesday of a "third world war against humanity," in the wake of the Paris attacks, describing the Islamic State group as "savage outlaws of religion." During an official visit to Kosovo, Abdullah said both Europe and Islam were under attack from the "scourge" of terrorism that could strike at any time. "We are facing a third world war against humanity and this is what brings us all together," he told a press conference. "This is a war, as I've said repeatedly, within Islam," he said, adding: "Groups such as Daesh (IS) expose themselves daily as savage outlaws of religion devoid of humanity respecting no laws and no boundaries." "So therefore we must act fast and holistically to tackle and respond to the interconnected threats whether it is in this region, Africa, Asia or in Europe."Jordan -- like France -- is a member of the U.S.-led coalition battling IS, which controls swathes of land in its neighbors Iraq and Syria.

Kerry Says Syria could be 'Weeks Away' from Transition
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said Tuesday that Syria could be weeks away from a "big transition", following on from international talks in Vienna at the weekend. "We are weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition for Syria," Kerry said after talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris. Kerry said there was now a "genuine process with possibilities" to unlock the war in Syria, which has cost 250,000 lives over nearly five years. "We have found a common agreement on principles (and) established a concept of giving life to a negotiation with Iran and Russia at the table, which is unique in the last four and a half years," Kerry said.

Hollande and Iran's Rouhani Discuss Syria by Phone
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/French President Francois Hollande and his Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani discussed the war in Syria by telephone on Tuesday, in the wake of a devastating attack on Paris by Islamic State jihadists.The two leaders highlighted the importance of the Vienna process to end the nearly five-year war, after global diplomats on Saturday agreed on a fixed calendar for Syria to move towards elections in 18 months.

Births in Syria Down More Than 50% since War
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/The annual birth rate in Syria has fallen by more than half since the civil war broke out in 2011, al-Watan newspaper reported on Tuesday. Salah al-Sheikha, dean of Damascus University's faculty of medicine, told the newspaper that before the war Syria recorded around 500,000 births per year. This year, the number has plummeted to just 200,000, medical sources told Al-Watan, which is close to the government. The sources attributed the drop to "the reluctance of young people to get married, in addition to emigration... which has had the biggest effect on the number of births dropping to this low level."Since 2011, four million Syrians have fled abroad. Millions more have been internally displaced, while at least 250,000 have been killed. Syria's passport control office said a record 5,000 people per day had requested new passports in 2015, compared to 1,000 per day in 2014. Sheikha said the "steady drop" in the number of births was a result of "emigration outside of Syria, especially for young men who are old enough to get married." The impact of the war on purchasing power may also have discouraged parents from having more children, al-Watan said. Around half of Syria's workforce is unemployed and shortages have triggered high inflation.

Yemen President Returns to Aden from Saudi Exile
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/Yemen's president returned from exile to southern city Aden Tuesday as his troops and allies in a Saudi-led coalition press one of their most important offensives yet against Iran-backed Huthi rebels. After landing in the provisional capital, Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi went straight to the palace to "supervise" the offensive aimed at retaking Taez province, mostly-controlled by the rebels, a presidential source said. His return comes just days after Prime Minister Khaled Bahah announced the return of his government to Yemen. The president has tried to return before. In September, after six months of exile in Saudi Arabia, Hadi and Bahah returned to Aden but had to go back to Riyadh after a deadly attack on the provisional seat of government. Hadi declared the southern port city Yemen's temporary capital after he escaped house arrest in the rebel-held capital Sanaa in February. The following month, he fled into exile as the rebels and their allies entered Aden, prompting a Saudi-led coalition to launch a military intervention in support of his internationally recognized government. The U.N. says that some 5,000 people, more than half of them civilians, have been killed in Yemen since the intervention began. The president will be staying at the Maashiq presidential palace in the central Crater district of Aden. The palace was severely damaged in the fighting that gripped Aden until July but was recently repaired by the United Arab Emirates, which along with Saudi Arabia is taking a lead role in supporting Hadi's government. The coalition sent ground troops to Yemen in early August after months of air strikes. It has deployed significant reinforcements for the advance on Taez, Yemen's third city, military officials have said. Taez has seen heavy fighting in recent months between pro-government forces and the Huthi Shiite rebels and their allies. There are loyalist troops inside the city but they are besieged by the rebels. Pro-Hadi forces and their coalition allies pushed north towards Taez overnight, capturing the village of Waziaa, southwest of the city, military sources said. The rebel-controlled Saba news agency had said Monday that the insurgents repelled attempts to advance on four fronts towards Waziaa. Further south, pro-Hadi fighters advanced towards Rahida, the province's second-largest city, following fierce clashes at nearby Shuraija, a military source said. Loyalist forces deployed in Dhubab advanced towards the port city of Mocha on the Red Sea, an army officer said. "They are 30 kilometers (19 miles) away from Mocha," he said. The fighting, which has been accompanied by Saudi-led air strikes, has left 26 rebels and 33 loyalists dead since Monday, pro-Hadi military sources said. A 400-strong Sudanese force arrived in Aden this month in support of loyalist forces, joining 500 who arrived in October. Sudanese forces from the strategic Al-Anad airbase in Lahj were taking part in the Taez operations, sources said Monday. The fighting has thrown into question U.N.-brokered peace talks that had been planned for later this month. A U.N. bid to launch peace talks in June failed over demands for a rebel withdrawal from seized territory, but this time, much effort has been put into ensuring there is agreement in advance on the agenda. The humanitarian crisis in Yemen has been identified by the United Nations as one of the world's worst, with 80 percent of the country's population on the brink of famine.

'French Jihadist' Made Audio Recording Claiming Paris Attacks
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 17/15/A French jihadist named Fabien Clain made the audio recording of the Islamic State group statement claiming the Paris attacks that was published online, a source close to the investigation told AFP. The 35-year-old is a veteran of radical Islamist networks in the southern French city of Toulouse and was close to Mohamed Merah who shot dead seven people, including three Jewish children, in 2012. Clain was convicted in 2009 of recruiting jihadists and sentenced to five years in prison, after which he left for Syria. In April 2015 the daily Le Monde revealed he was a main suspect in a foiled attack on a church uncovered when assailant Algerian IT student Sid Ahmed Ghlam shot himself in the leg by accident. Gunmen and suicide bombers went on a killing spree in Paris on Friday night, attacking a concert hall, bars, restaurants and the Stade de France. Islamic State jihadists operating out of Iraq and Syria released a statement claiming responsibility for the coordinated attacks. The group said "eight brothers wearing explosive belts and carrying assault rifles" conducted a "blessed attack on... Crusader France." It said the targets of Friday's attacks "were carefully chosen."The statement also made reference to French air strikes on IS in Syria. It said France was guilty of "striking Muslims in the caliphate with their aircraft" and threatened further attacks "as long as it continues its Crusader campaign." Seven jihadists blew themselves up or were killed by security forces, and police are hunting for an eighth suspect.

Iran army exercise simulates response to ISIS attack
AFP, Tehran Tuesday, 17 November 2015/Iran’s army conducted exercises Tuesday close to its border with Afghanistan designed to simulate how it would respond if “terrorist groups” such as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) organization mounted an attack. The operation in the northeastern province of Khorasan came a day after a military commander said ISIS would be “neutralized” if it breached a 40 kilometer zone approaching Iran’s borders. Tanks, helicopters and planes took part in Tuesday’s manoeuvres, the ISNA news agency reported. The exercise followed ISIS attacks that killed 129 people in Paris last week. “One aim of the exercise was to practice methods and means to confront the possible actions of terrorist groups at the borders,” said General Amir Reza Azarban, an army commander in the province. Iran, the major Shiite power in the Middle East, is heavily involved in conflicts in Syria and Iraq against ISIS, primarily Sunni Muslims who denounce Shiites as apostates.
Neutralized
On Monday, General Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, the army’s head of ground forces, announced the 40 kilometer limit on the borders with Iraq and Afghanistan, which if breached would trigger action. “We have strongly warned that if any action is taken (by ISIS), it will face a decisive response from Iranian armed forces and we will do the same in Afghanistan,” Pourdastan said. “Before the enemy reaches borders, its actions will be neutralized.”His comments came after Iraq’s Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari said intelligence sources showed Iran was among countries ISIS planned to attack. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, which is independent of the army, has advisory missions in Iraq and Syria at the invitation of the Baghdad and Damascus governments. Pourdastan’s statement came just weeks before Iranian pilgrims prepare to travel to Iraq for the annual Arbaeen commemorations, which have been targeted by militants in past years. Almost one million Iranians have signed up online to attend this year’s 70-kilometre religious walk between Najaf and Karbala on December 2, marking the death of Imam Hussein.

Russia targets Raqqa, U.S. strikes more ISIS oil facilities
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Tuesday, 17 November 2015/Russia maybe have used cruise missiles to target Islamist militants’ stronghold in Syria on Tuesday and U.S.-led military coalition staged 23 air strikes against jihadists in Syria and Iraq. A U.S. defense official said Russia is waging a significant number of strikes in Syria on Tuesday and told Washington ahead of the attacks it would use both sea-launched cruise missiles and long-range bombers. Moscow gave the United States notice ahead of the strikes under an agreement with Washington on air safety protocols, the official said, adding at least some of the strikes targeted the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) stronghold of Raqqa. The U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, stressed that the United States was not coordinating with Russia and the Russian strikes had not prompted the United States to call off any coalition activities. Russia Tuesday also staged a “significant number” of air strikes on ISIS stronghold of Raqqa in Syria, the official said. The attacks may have included sea-launched cruise missiles and long range bombers, he added. Meanwhile, the Combined Joint Task Force leading the operations said the U.S.-led military coalition on Monday staged 23 air strikes targeting ISIS in Syria and Iraq, including oil facilities used by the militant group, In a statement released on Tuesday, the task force said six strikes near three Syrian cities hit several fighting positions as well as an Islamic State gas and oil separation point near Abu Kamal and three oil facilities near Dayr Az Zawr, the statement said.In Iraq, 17 strikes in Iraq near six cities hit numerous targets including militants’ fighting positions, roads, tactical units and a headquarters in Sinjar.(AFP, Reuters)

Israel to lift freeze on marketing of 454 settler homes in East Jerusalem
Reuters, East Jersualem Tuesday, 17 November 2015/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved the marketing of land for the construction of 454 homes in two settlements in East Jerusalem, a government official said on Tuesday. The building of 436 of the housing units, in the settlement of Ramat Shlomo on land Israel occupied in a 1967 war, was approved in 2012. But the project was later frozen in an apparent attempt to avoid friction with Washington.

Kerry says ISIS feeling the pressure, losing ground
Reuters, Paris Tuesday, 17 November 2015/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is losing territory in the Middle East and the Western-backed coalition is making inroads against the group, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday. “The level of cooperation could not be higher. We agreed to exchange more information and I’m convinced that over the course of the next weeks, Daesh will feel greater pressure. They are feeling it today. They felt it yesterday. They felt it in the past weeks. We gained more territory. Daesh has less territory,” he said, referring to the Arabic acronym for ISIS. Kerry, who confirmed French President Francois Hollande would travel to Washington next week to meet U.S. President Barack Obama, was speaking in Paris after a meeting with Hollande. He spoke as France stepped up air strikes in Syria in the wake of killings claimed by ISIS in the French capital on Friday.

Russia ‘outraged’ at accusations it killed civilians in Syria
Reuters, United Nations Tuesday, 17 November 2015/Russia has told the United Nations on Monday it was “outraged” by allegations that it had killed civilians in Syria and destroyed civilian infrastructure as a U.S.-based rights group accused Moscow’s air force of bombing 10 medical facilities in October. Russia launched air strikes in Syria to help bolster forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad at the end of September, but Western powers accuse Moscow of targeting anti-Assad rebels instead of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants. A U.S.-led coalition has been bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq for more than year. Physicians for Human Rights said there had been 16 attacks on medical facilities in Syria in October, the worst toll since the civil war began nearly five years ago. It blamed at least 10 of those attacks and one death on Russian air strikes. “We are outraged by different types of information regarding alleged civilian deaths and destruction of civilian infrastructure as a result of missile and air strikes by the Russian armed forces,” Russian Deputy U.N. Ambassador Vladimir Safronkov told a U.N. Security Council meeting on Syria. Citing recent meetings of an International Syria Support Group in Vienna that aims to end the conflict, he dubbed unacceptable what he called “the politicization of human rights and humanitarian topics.”Without laying any blame, U.N. aid chief Stephen O’Brien told the Security Council that attacks on civilian infrastructure continued unabated. “We need a firm commitment from the parties to the conflict to take all necessary measures to protect civilians and stop the targeting of civilian infrastructure, including medical facilities, schools and key infrastructure networks,” he said.

Palestinian official: Gaza border deal reached with Egypt
By AP, Ramallah (West Bank) Tuesday, 17 November 2015/A senior Palestinian official on Monday said the Palestinian Authority has reached an agreement with Egypt to reopen the Gaza Strip’s main border crossing in an arrangement meant to bypass the territory’s Hamas rulers. Azzam al-Ahmad, an aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, said the deal was reached recently in Cairo. He said it aims to open the Rafah crossing “to the maximum possible” to allow the movement of students, laborers, medical patients and even commercial goods. Such a deal could bring great relief to Gaza, whose borders are largely sealed by an Israeli and Egyptian blockade. It could also mark a setback for Hamas, which seized control of Gaza from Abbas in 2007. However, a top Hamas official gave the plan a cool reception, raising questions about its viability. The Rafah crossing is Gaza’s main gateway to the outside world. Few Gazans are permitted to travel through the Israeli border to the north, though Israeli crossings are used to transfer cargo into Gaza. Azzam said the deal would be implemented in stages beginning in the near future, but he gave no further details. Hamas remains in full control of Gaza while the internationally-backed Palestinian Authority, which governs in the occupied West Bank, has no presence there. Repeated attempts to reconcile the rival governments have failed.

The Terrorists Funded by the West
Bassam Tawil/Gatestone Institute/November 17/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6889/terrorists-funded-by-west
The French and other Westerners need to wake up to the reality that the Palestinians who are condemning the terror attacks in Paris are the same ones who are praising terrorists who murder Jews, and naming streets and squares after them.
Once again, Abbas's Western-funded loyalists are hoping to convince the world that there are "good" and "bad" terrorists. The good terrorists are those who murder Jews, while the bad terrorists are those who target French citizens. In fact, Abbas is doing his utmost to support the terrorists and their families.
For the war on terrorism to succeed, France and the rest of the Western countries also need to fight those who are harboring terrorists, glorifying murderers, and to stop financing the practitioners of terrorism who now regard it as a big, juicy cherished business.
Only a few hours before the terrorist attacks in Paris last week, Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas appeared at a joint press conference in Ramallah together with the president of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades.
The press conference was held shortly after a Palestinian terrorist murdered two Israelis near the West Bank city of Hebron: Rabbi Yaakov Litman, 40, and his son, Netanel, 18. Five other family members -- Litman's wife, three daughters aged 5, 9, 11, and a 16-year-old son -- suffered minor wounds. The Jewish family was driving to a pre-celebration of a fourth daughter's wedding when the Palestinian terrorist opened fire at their vehicle.
At the press conference in Ramallah, however, President Abbas again chose to ignore the terrorist attack that was carried out by a Palestinian. Although Abbas knew that a Jewish man and his son had just been murdered, he refused to condemn the attack.
Since the current wave of Palestinian terrorism against Israelis began in early October, Abbas and the PA leadership have refused to condemn the murder of Israeli civilians and soldiers. Instead, President Abbas has repeatedly condemned Israel for killing the terrorists who carried out the attacks.
As President Abbas was speaking at the press conference in Ramallah, hundreds of Palestinians attended a rally in the city to commemorate Muhannad Halabi, the Palestinian terrorist who murdered two Jews in the Old City of Jerusalem on October 3: Aharon Banita, 21, and Nehemia Lavi, 41.
The rally in Ramallah could not have been held without permission from President Abbas's security forces, who are armed and funded by the U.S., Europe and other Western countries. At the rally, Palestinians praised the terrorist as a "hero" and "martyr" and promised to follow in his path.
In yet another gesture to honor the terrorist, the Palestinian Authority decided to name a street after him in his village of Surda-Abu Kash, near Ramallah. By authorizing the move to name a street after the terrorist, President Abbas and the PA leadership are sending a message to other Palestinians that those who murder Jews will be honored and glorified by their people. The Palestinian Authority has also set up a monument for the "martyr" Halabi on the main road between Ramallah and the town of Bir Zeit. Less than three hours after Abbas appeared at the press conference in Ramallah with his Cypriot guest, he and his spokesmen issued statements condemning the terrorist attacks in Paris. Abbas's condemnation of the Paris attacks shows that the Palestinian Authority believes that there are good and bad terrorists. In the eyes of Abbas and the PA, the terrorists are "heroes" and "martyrs" when they murder Jews. But the terrorists who murder French nationals are bad and deserve to be strongly condemned.
This is the same Palestinian Authority that has refused over the past five weeks to denounce the terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians, including an 80-year-old woman, a father and his son, and a couple who were murdered in front of their four children. This position again exposes the hypocrisy and double talk of President Abbas and his Western-funded Palestinian Authority. By refusing to condemn the anti-Israeli terrorist attacks, President Abbas is giving his tacit approval for the murder of Jews. In fact, he is doing his utmost to support the terrorists and their families.Earlier this week, the Palestinian Authority announced that it would rebuild the homes of Hamas terrorists who murdered Eitam Henkin and his wife, Naama, in front of their children last month. The Israel Defense Forces demolished the homes as part of a policy to deter potential terrorists. The decision to rebuild the destroyed houses will only encourage terrorists to carry out more attacks against Jews because they know that President Abbas will take care of their families and even build them new homes.
Abbas's Fatah faction, which has been praising and endorsing as heroes the Palestinian terrorists involved in attacks on Jews during the past weeks, is now trying to tell the French people that it is opposed to the terrorist attacks in Paris. Once again, Abbas's Western-funded loyalists are hoping to convince the world that there are good and bad terrorists. The good terrorists are those who murder Jews, while the bad terrorists are those who target French citizens.The funniest episode in this show of Palestinian hypocrisy, however, can be found in the responses of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The two Islamist groups, whose ideology and aspirations are not particularly different from those of the Islamic State, were quick to publish statements "condemning" the terrorist attacks in Paris, claiming they are opposed to the killing of "innocent civilians." Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have long been involved in the business of targeting Israeli civilians. The two groups are responsible for the murders of hundreds of civilians during the past three decades. They have used all forms of terrorism against civilians, including the launching of rockets, shooting attacks and suicide bombings. Still, the two Palestinian groups have had the cheek to "condemn" the brutal killings of civilians in Paris.
Less than 24 hours before condemning the Paris attacks, Hamas and Islamic Jihad issued separate statements applauding the "heroic" shooting attacks that killed the Jewish father and his son near Hebron. Like President Abbas, the two terror groups draw a distinction between "good" terrorists who murder Jews and "bad" ones who target French civilians. The story of Palestinian hypocrisy and double standards is not new. In fact, it is as old as the 67-year-old Israeli-Arab conflict. Unfortunately, countries such as France avoid confronting Palestinian leaders about their lies and hypocritical policies. The French and other Westerners need to wake up to the reality that the Palestinians who are condemning the terror attacks in Paris are the same ones who are praising terrorists who murder Jews and naming streets and squares after them.The French government should have the courage to dismiss the Palestinian "condemnations" publicly, and send a warning to President Abbas, Hamas and Islamic Jihad to stop supporting and glorifying Muslim terrorists not only in Paris, but also those who live amongst them in Ramallah and the Gaza Strip.
Spot the difference...
Left: Emergency workers carry the dead body of a victim who was murdered by Islamist terrorists, who shot and stabbed civilians on a Jerusalem bus last month. Right: Medics carry a victim who was wounded by Islamist terrorists, who shot civilians at a Paris theater last week. For the war on terrorism to succeed, France and the rest of the Western countries also need to fight those who are harboring terrorists, glorifying murderers, and to stop financing the practitioners of terrorism who now regard it as a big, cherished business.
*Bassam Tawil is a scholar based in the Middle East.

National Security Threats vs. Defense Cuts
Peter Huessy/Gatestone Institute/November 17/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6895/defense-cuts-security-threats
The nation's media, who seem to assume that Americans are weary of war, rather than that they are desperately frustrated at being infantilized and lied to, rarely discuss what defense programs need more investment. If anything, they discuss what defense programs should be killed.
Defense spending grew from $265 billion in 1996 to $300 billion in 2000, a 13% increase, equivalent to a $76 billion annual increase today. And the plan to balance the budget reached its goal in 1997. Why can America not do that again? Reform tax policy. Restore a sound defense budget plan.
"You think defending this nation is expensive; try not defending it." — Senator Ted Cruz, Nov. 10, 2015.
Especially as ISIS, Iran and others openly threaten the United States, it seems increasingly urgent for this administration and the next to determine the level of defense spending America should support.
A new study by the American Enterprise Institute, (AEI), authored primarily by defense experts Tom Donnelly and Mackenzie Eaglen initially supports using as a minimum baseline the defense five year plan proposed in 2012, by then Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates.
Unfortunately, too often in Washington a discussion of defense spending frequently defaults into arguments over whether major tax rate increases must be part of the bargain. This failure is in part due to policy proposals to increase defense spending often being linked to with other proposals -- to cut tax rates, reform entitlements and balance the budget. Combined, these proposals are often described as unworkable and radical, and are thus easily dismissed.
A debate over how much to "tax the rich" lends itself to easy demagoguery. And that attracts politicians and their supporters to call for the redistribution of income. In short, if everything in the drive-by media newsroom can default to the progressive, Marxist narrative, it will.
In addition, the nation's media, who seem to assume that Americans are weary of war, rather than that they are desperately frustrated at being infantilized and lied to, rarely discuss what defense programs need more investment. If anything, they discuss what defense programs should be reduced or killed. For example, Keith Payne, the President of the National Institute of Public Policy in Fairfax, Virginia and a former top DOD official, told a conference on September 17, 2015 that during the past few years, media stories advocating cutting nuclear deterrent programs outnumbered those pushing for modernization by more than 200 to 1.
Retired Air Force Lieutenant General David Deptula, Dean of the Air Force Association's (AFA) Mitchell Institute and formerly the first Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, explained at an AFA conference on bomber policy on November 10, that the U.S. needs to have a discussion of "first principals" -- asking what defense of the country one should have, to accomplish what ends. Then one can determine what it would cost.[1] The first task in the Constitution is "to provide for the common defense." To be sure, it is also necessary to have an intelligent discussion on how to pay for such a defense. That raises the further question of how best to generate the economic growth and jobs needed to raise the revenues needed to pay for these defense bills. If the U.S. is serious about balancing the federal budget in the next decade, as the new Speaker of the House, Paul D. Ryan, supports, that debate should be held soon. The debate should be about what smart tax, regulatory and spending policies would yield highest levels of revenue. But does the U.S. really need to increase tax rates more on "the rich," to meet its defense obligations?
Already, the current tax system is extraordinarily progressive. For example, while the top 1% earned 18.9% of national income they paid an astounding 37.4% of all federal taxes, while the top 5% earned 33.8% of national income but paid 59.1% of all federal taxes. By contrast, the bottom half of Americans received 11.7% of national income yet paid only 2.4% of federal taxes. Few Americans, however, seem to know that every year -- with no change in Federal tax rates -- the U.S. government dramatically increases its "tax take" from the U.S. economy.
Despite the current economic recovery being the slowest in the post World War II era, revenue collected by the U.S. in 2014-2015 was still $230 billion higher than the year before.[2]
Obviously, a strong economy at near full employment would generate record levels of revenue, even when tax rates are lower (such as a 35% top tax rate) than in other years.[3]
The media and political discussion should include what to do with annual revenue increases that, even now in a slow-growth economy, are climbing each year by nearly a quarter of a trillion dollars.
For defense, if one accepts the recommendation of AEI that a $611 billion defense budget for FY2016 be adopted, as proposed by former Defense Secretary Robert Gates in 2012, it would boost the current administration's February 2015 defense request of $585 billion by $26 billion.
It appears, in fact, that Congress and the administration have finally agreed on a new defense spending level of $607 billion, which does bring the U.S. significantly closer to the initial goal of $611 billion proposed by AEI's Donnelly and Eaglen. This new annual increase in defense spending of about $60 billion above the previous budget caps is welcome, but amounts to the appropriation for more defense spending of only about 25% of the annual increase in federal revenue. In short, it does not appear "radical" at all to devote some of those resources for U.S. national security, especially at this time.
It also does not seem "radical" to question the debates about taxing the rich, which are usually accompanied by arguments about who pays what share of federal revenue, and whether "the rich" make "too much" money.
Recent history has some lessons for the U.S. In 1996, the U.S. cut capital gains tax rates; lowered taxes on inheritances; expanded individual retirement accounts and increased the child tax credit. Domestic non-defense spending was curtailed. Nevertheless, defense spending grew from $265 billion in 1996 to $300 billion in 2000, a 13% increase, equivalent to a $76 billion annual increase today. And the plan to balance the budget reached its goal in 1997. Why can America not do that again? Reform tax policy. Take people from welfare to work. Restore a sound defense budget plan. And balance the budget.
As said by U.S. presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz, "You think defending this nation is expensive; try not defending it." How radical is that?
[1] Lt Gen David Deptula, remarks at the AFA November 10, 2015 "What's Next for the Long-Range Strike Bomber?"
[2] The budget, tax and GDP numbers are from Christopher Chantrill's website. This site provides current and historical budget, tax and GDP data far superior in format and detail than any other source, government or private. You can also find the revenue numbers from the Treasury tables posted on the White House website.
[3] These revenue figures are for taxes collected from all tax rate levels. The top tax rates are for reference purposes and illustrate the key to greater revenue is greater economic growth.

Is it time for Israel to revisit its relationship with Sunni bloc?
Ben Caspit/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah gave yet another of his regular speeches on Nov. 14. This time, however, the timing was especially dramatic. It was just two days after the Islamic State’s (IS) deadly suicide attack in the Dahiyeh Quarter, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, and just a few hours after IS’ killing spree in Paris. After watching a live broadcast of the speech, a senior Israeli intelligence official made a remarkable comment, speaking on condition of anonymity: “[Nasrallah] sounds like he just joined [Israeli nongovernmental organization] Peace Now. How could we possibly have reached a point in which Nasrallah has become the responsible adult in the Middle East?” This question is heard more and more in the corridors of Israel’s defense establishment. Nasrallah’s speech lasted several minutes, but this time it did not include attacks on Israel (even though Israel was mentioned more than once as the source of all troubles in the region). In contrast, it contained numerous attacks on IS. Nasrallah employed the same jargon used by the West to describe IS’ atrocities. “The Islamic State’s attacks in Paris were intended to intimidate,” he said. “People of the region, of the Arab and Islamic countries, who are living under the brutality of [IS], including Lebanon which suffered a few days ago from it, are the most aware of and sympathetic to what hit the French nation last night. We offer our deep condolences, solidarity, sympathy [and] our moral and humanitarian stand to those innocents who are invaded by the barbaric criminal management of [IS].”
Referring to the car bomb in Dahiyeh, Nasrallah said, “We must find the people responsible for these car bombs and destroy those networks. … The Islamic State has a system. This system was implemented in Paris. They use cars and trucks because they want as many casualties and as much destruction as possible. They also want to sow fear, so they use suicide bombers. We must fight against this new wave of attacks by employing the same strategy that we used against the car bombs. We must get to the people in charge of these networks, the leadership that sends these suicide bombers. … I want to tell everyone who is following events in Lebanon and the region that the Islamic State has no future. The Islamic State has a short life ahead of it. It is a project of death and destruction. They have no plans for a state or life or recognition of the other. Their very thoughts are saturated with elements of self-destruction. The Islamic State has no future. Anyone who once supported the Islamic State is beginning to see how vicious they really are. There is no room for the Islamic State in any political arrangement anywhere, not in Iraq or Syria, not in Libya or Yemen. There is no room for anyone who bears the name of the Islamic State.”Almost all world leaders whose countries have been horrified by IS’ atrocities could sign on to Nasrallah’s remarks. “It proves that everything in life is relative,” said a senior Israeli defense official to Al-Monitor, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Compared to what we are seeing now, Nasrallah is practically a ‘righteous gentile’ [term describing non-Jews who saved Jews during the Holocaust]. I almost forgot,” he went on to admit, “that Hezbollah basically invented the car bomb and suicide bombers.” The Israeli defense official was referring to the car bomb attack on the headquarters of the Multinational Force in Beirut in 1983, which left 305 people dead, including 241 US Marines, and the car bomb that exploded beside the gate of the Israel Defense Forces command in Tyre, which killed 28 Israeli soldiers and border police and 31 Lebanese prisoners, etc. In Israel, it is often said that recent developments on the international terrorism front prove that everything is relative. Given IS, people already miss al-Qaeda. When all of this is taken into consideration, the Shiite axis, based in Iran and including Damascus and Beirut, has for quite a while now not represented the problem, but the solution. Israel is well aware that the Europeans and Americans have long reached this conclusion. The nuclear deal with Iran confirmed that it is a major power. According to political sources in Israel, the deal effectively gave Iran a “license to kill.” Recent events create a situation in which this license actually offers a glimmer of hope to the free world. As of now, at least, the only ground forces fighting IS are made up of the Shiite axis: Iran, Hezbollah and what is left of the Syrian army, in collaboration with the Kurds.
This brings us back to the old argument about the war between Sunni and Shiite Islam echoing through the corridors of the Israeli security establishment. Which is better, the Sunnis or the Shiites? That’s what people are asking in Israel. The official position sides with the Sunnis, at least for now. Israel has been maintaining clandestine and intelligence collaborations with the pragmatic Sunni states, headed by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan. It has no reason to give up on them. After all, Israel also regards Iran’s domination of the region and the growing strength of the Tehran-Beirut axis as a significant existential threat. A few weeks ago, I spoke with a high-ranking Israeli defense official who explained in great detail why Israel prefers this particular alignment. He also provided a lengthy account of the strategic dangers posed by the Shiite axis. He saw renewed Russian involvement in the region as a very serious problem, noting that it could indicate the beginning of a Shiite victory, resulting in its domination of the strategic space. According to that same source, Israel prefers the Sunni chaos.
IS’ recent outrages, culminating in the striking series of attacks over the last few days (the Russian airliner that was downed over the Sinai Peninsula, the Dahiyeh bombing in Beirut and the Paris attack) dangles a question mark over these assumptions. There is also a minority opinion in Israel, which is getting stronger given current developments. As I was told by one proponent of the minority position on condition of anonymity, “Imagine that the Islamic State manages to get its hand on a nuclear bomb, even the kind of primitive device that we call a dirty bomb. Does anyone doubt that they would use it? You can’t say that about the Shiites. Regardless of what we say about Iran, and rightfully so at that, the ayatollahs have no deep desire or joy for suicide and murder. They think systematically and logically. They have a rationale, which is familiar to us. The Sunni demon now emerging from its bottle is capable of anything. It has no red lines whatsoever. This should not only terrify us here in Israel. It should terrify the entire world.”
For now, however, IS’ terrorist achievements do not match its operational failures in the field. It lost assets to the Kurds in northern Iraq, and it is suffering blow after blow in Syria. The ideal of an IS caliphate, which has distinguished the movement from al-Qaeda and turned it into the current threat, is now at risk.
In a radio interview on Nov. 15, Shabtai Shavit, the former head of Israel’s Mossad, said that IS should be ravaged like Dresden during World War II. It should be annihilated, even if it costs numerous lives. Shavit got carried away, of course, but his statement reflects the way some defense officials regard IS. They see it as a different kind of threat: unpredictable, illogical and inhuman. It is not the kind of threat over which we can debate whether to destroy it or engage it in dialogue. It must be uprooted, plain and simple.
**Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers, and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel.

Egypt rushes to bolster tourism after Sinai plane crash
Hala Ali/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
CAIRO — Dozens of initiatives have been introduced by the Egyptian Interior Ministry, politicians, public figures, artists and media outlets to breathe life back into the tourism sector of Sharm el-Sheikh, which relies largely on Russian tourism. The efforts come after Russia, Britain and France decided to suspend their flights to the city and call back their citizens in the wake of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai Peninsula on Oct. 31.El-Watan newspaper described in its “I’m going to Sharm” campaign that the decision by Russia and Britain to ban flights to Sharm el-Sheikh is a conspiracy against Egypt. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry lashed out at the Western countries, mainly the United States and Britain, which had announced that the plane was likely brought down by an act of sabotage before the results of the Egyptian and Russian investigations were published.Egypt’s El-Watan newspaper had started the “I’m going to Sharm” initiative on Nov. 6, a few hours after Britain called on its citizens to return home. Britain was the first country to send airplanes to fly its citizens back from Sharm el-Sheikh without waiting for the results of the investigation. Eight flights were scheduled to transport the 20,000 British tourists from Sharm el-Sheikh, according to the statements of the Egyptian Minister of Civil Aviation Hussam Kamel.
On Nov. 7, Russia followed suit and sent 44 planes to transport its citizens from the city. On Nov. 7, the Russian Foreign Ministry's Federal Agency for Tourism told Russia Today that there are currently 79,000 Russian tourists in Egyptian resorts, and they will return to their country in several stages.
El-Watan newspaper called on Egyptians to visit Sharm el-Sheikh to support tourism and show solidarity with those employed in this sector. The newspaper stated that Egypt is facing an economic war and blockade and encouraged Egyptians to visit Sharm el-Sheikh during the Christmas holidays and asked them to send photos to be published in the newspaper to support tourism. El-Watan’s move inspired similar efforts by dozens of public figures and politicians, including the president of the Committee of 50 for the Amendment of the Constitution, Amr Moussa; head of the Democratic Egyptian Party Mohamed Abou el-Ghar; and head of Cairo University Jaber Nassar, among other political parties, athletes and artists.
Egyptian Al-Nahar TV broadcast live from Sharm el-Sheikh to support tourism on Nov. 8, and the Egyptian state TV broadcast several shows from the city. On Nov. 11, the Egyptian Cabinet consecrated a special budget of at least $5 million to implement an intensive international public relations campaign to stimulate tourism in Sharm el-Sheikh. Board member of the Chamber of Tourism Federation Naji Aryan told Al-Monitor that the efforts will boost the morale of workers in the tourism sector and will positively affect the business sector by improving local tourism. Still, the efforts remain morale oriented rather than financial, he said, adding that these activities will not play a major economic role because Egypt needs US dollars, which it will not receive from stimulation of local tourism. “The initiatives mainly aim to decrease the transportation and accommodation expenses in Sharm el-Sheikh to encourage Egyptians to visit, which means that the financial effect will be weak. Besides, the general environment in Sharm el-Sheikh is [directed at foreign tourists] and differs from what many Egyptians are accustomed to,” he added.
Aryan noted that recovery will depend on the results of the investigations. Aryan said that tourism in Sharm el-Sheikh will get back on track quickly because of pressure from all the foreign companies that contract with hotels there. He added that the suspension of flights by foreign governments is burdening these companies with massive losses daily. Therefore, they will pressure their governments to end the travel ban. Speaking to Al-Monitor, Ahmed Hamdi, vice president of the Tourism Promotion Authority, said he considered Russia’s decision to ban travel to Sharm el-Sheikh shocking and marked by political motives.
Hamdi asserted that the authority held several sessions to organize parties in Sharm el-Sheikh and plans to throw the first party on Dec. 20. An unidentified Egyptian star is supposed to sing, and the head of the Musicians Syndicate, Hani Shaker, will prepare an artistic program to be followed in cooperation with the authority to organize parties and shows in Sharm el-Sheikh.
Hamdi said he wished that all initiatives supporting tourism in Sharm el-Sheikh would be organized under the umbrella of the Egyptian Ministry of Tourism’s campaign, “Sharm el-Sheikh is in our hearts,” which will create a program to facilitate Egyptians traveling to Sharm el-Sheikh. Hamdi noted that this initiative will begin on Nov. 15 in Sharm el-Sheikh and will last until the end of the tourism season on April 30, 2016. It will work to repair the image of tourism and to encourage the Russian and British governments to lift their travel bans. Hamdi stated that the authority is also preparing a program to stimulate Arab tourism. He noted that the market for Arab tourism aligns more closely with general norms and traditions of Egyptians. The foreign countries that did not ban travel to the city, such as Ukraine, Italy, the Czech Republic and Hungary, will also be addressed. He said, “We will launch campaigns and head to new markets like Latin America, and we will try to learn from our mistakes. We should not focus on one market only, but rather aim at being present in various markets.” Mo’taz al-Sayed, head of Tour Guides in Egypt, told Al-Monitor that while these efforts look good on paper, he doesn't expect results. He described them as attempts at reassurance that will not bear fruit. Local tourism will not compensate for the losses that the sector will suffer from limited foreign tourism.
Sayed said that the efforts promise to benefit Egypt's image, especially following the plunge in foreign tourism to Sharm el-Sheikh. Local tourism will also prove useful in that sense, even if not immediately profitable.

Why is Rouhani backing off from those profiting from sanctions?
Alireza Ramezani/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
TEHRAN, Iran — Economists in Iran are encouraging the administration of President Hassan Rouhani to take a softer position on those who accumulated questionable wealth between 2005 and 2012, when the country enjoyed oil revenues totaling a record $700 billion — amid harsh sanctions. Indeed, some economists are now warning that capital flight will be exacerbated should the administration not allow this “new social class” to play a role in the Iranian economy.The advice appears to have been heeded by Rouhani. In an Oct. 12 address in the northern province of Mazandaran, he moderated his previously harsh tone toward the “dealers of sanctions” — a term referring to the individuals and influential firms affiliated with military and political organizations that made astronomical profits while the country was under crippling economic sanctions.
During his visit to the northern city of Sari, the moderate president reassured the “dealers of sanctions” that they will not make a loss when the external pressure is removed. “I swear to God: You will not make a loss. You, too, will enjoy the benefits of the sanctions relief. Don’t worry, your business won’t become stagnant,” said Rouhani, obviously to those opposing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the historic July 14 deal with six world powers that it set to put an end to nuclear-related sanctions by early 2016.
Indeed, the remarks can be interpreted as a fresh attempt by moderates to calm the domestic political atmosphere, which has been tense after the hammering out of a diplomatic resolution to the 12-year-long nuclear dispute with the West. However, it could also be an indication that the Rouhani administration has failed to push back the “economic mafia,” and is now begging for the latter’s participation in the revival of the ailing Iranian economy.
Rouhani’s efforts to avoid an increase in capital flight, however, is not a new trend in post-revolutionary Iran. The establishment has increasingly altered its anti-capitalism ethos over the years, providing a safe haven for those loyal to the rulers to gain wealth. Formerly disapproved of “capitalists” are now publicly hailed for contributing to job creation. In this vein, Rouhani may now intend to take maximum advantage of billions of dollars of hidden capital to boost the lackluster economy.
Although there is no official estimate of the extent of the capital held by individuals and firms loyal to the previous government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based political and economic analyst, says the figure is hovering around $500 billion — well more than Iran’s entire nominal gross domestic product. In an interview with leading economic magazine Tejarat-e Farda, Leylaz claimed that “some 20% of the national wealth is owned by about 100,000 families.” He believes that the Rouhani administration is too weak to ignore this powerful group, and therefore has to come to a compromise with it, arguing that such huge capital could benefit society — regardless of who owns it. Leylaz and other like-minded Reformist economists say the role of the “dealers of sanctions” in the economy should be redefined, but are warning that the small community, if confronted, is powerful enough to organize destructive campaigns against the Rouhani administration.
Yahya Al-e-Eshaq, a former president of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, shares these thoughts, and says certain state-linked firms should be allowed to continue business — but in a fair and competitive manner. “They must avoid rent-seeking, and their unlimited access to information must be denied,” he emphasized. This prescription would mean that people such as detained sanctions tycoon Babak Zanjani, currently on trial for fraud and economic crimes, should be freed — a decision that some believe would enable him to repay the $2.8 billion he is accused of pocketing during Ahmadinejad’s tenure. Zanjani is one of the middlemen who were allegedly co-opted by the previous government to circumvent oil sanctions in exchange for huge commissions. Leylaz says such businessmen must be freed and given another chance to repay their debts, arguing that putting them on trial would only scare capital.
However, as claimed by some media outlets, it appears that the Rouhani administration has found that stopping individuals engaged in fraud — some of whom are backed by military-related groups — is an effort that will fall in vain. Thus, it would be a better idea to focus on helping make the murky business environment more transparent by deregulating industries and boosting oversight. If given the green light by Rouhani, these notorious firms can act more transparently and even be provided with the opportunity to create joint ventures with smaller private companies to finance major projects — a type of cooperation that has not yet materialized due to the fear that the real private sector feels from the influential state-linked firms.
Al-e Eshaq, the former head of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, says the real private sector fears that the companies affiliated with political and military organizations abuse their influence and harm its interests. In this vein, it is argued that if the latter were not the case, the private sector would gladly forge partnership with state-linked firms, just as it has done with multinational investors. Indeed, the capital raised by consortiums consisting of Iranian private and state-linked firms could greatly address the government’s financial woes. Regardless of why the Rouhani administration has taken a softer line on “dealers of sanctions,” it is a good idea to let them spend profusely on manufacturing, rather than trade and speculative activity. Yet, Rouhani and his team will in the coming years continue to face the challenge of how to adopt production-friendly policies. Indeed, the “new social class” has gotten used to easy money from rent-seeking, cheap loans and low tariffs as well as monopolistic and oligopolistic practices. Changing this habit won’t be easy.

After Paris, Iran spy chief warns Tehran could be next
Arash Karami/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
After the series of attacks Nov. 13 that killed at least 129 people in France, Iranian Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi is warning that the Islamic State could have its sights set on Iran.At a Nov. 15 security conference in Tehran, Alavi warned that one of the most dangerous threats to Iran comes from the same terrorist group that attacked Beirut and Paris. While Alavi said Iran has taken the necessary precautions, he added, “The recent bombings are a serious warning to us that needs the consideration of specialists.”Alavi did not say whether the potential threat emanates from inside Iran or from groups in neighboring countries. Gen. Ahmad Reza Pourdestan, commanding officer of the Iranian army's ground forces, spoke Nov. 16 of concerns about having IS on Iran's western and eastern borders. He said attacks on Diyala province in Iraq, on Iran’s eastern border, led to the decision that if IS forces reach within 25 miles of Iran’s borders, its military will take action.
Pourdestan said that in northern Afghanistan, Taliban and IS forces have joined together to “invade Iran,” but he added that IS forces are currently unable to do so. Iran has forces in Syria and Iraq, fighting both IS militants and armed groups that oppose the Syrian government. Iran says its soldiers are “advisers,” but dozens of Iranians have died since large-scale operations began in September. Pourdestan said these soldiers are from the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force but if necessary, the Iranian army is also prepared to send in soldiers.
Though Pourdestan speaks of a military campaign, the threat of IS attacking Iran from within is certainly possible. According to Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Iraq had warned France, the United States and Iran that IS had plans to attack inside their countries. Iran has made a number of arrests that authorities claimed were related to IS. In June 2014, Iran’s Intelligence Ministry arrested 30 individuals it claimed were members of IS. In September, Turkish officials said three Iranians who had traveled to Turkey with the intention of joining IS in Syria were arrested. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani offered his condolences to France for the terror attacks. Hard-line Iranian officials and media have blamed Western policies in Iraq and Syria for the creation of IS. The head of Iran’s judiciary, Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, said Nov. 16 that US officials whose policies helped create IS should be tried. Hussein Amir-Abdollahian, deputy foreign minister for Arab and African affairs, said Nov. 16 that Iran had warned regional and Western countries that by supporting unrest in Syria, the "unrest would infect their own countries as well."Some of the most shocking media coverage after the Paris attack came from the hard-line Persian-language daily Vatan-e Emrooz. The newspaper's front page showed a body on a Paris street, covered in a white sheet, with the headline, “Here you are, Shaam.” "Shaam,” a reference to Syria, also means "dinner" in Persian. The headline is from a popular show in Iran, “Here you are, dinner.” The subheadline, alluding to French support for fighters opposed to the Syrian government, read, “The West finally tasted its cooking in Syria.”

Erdogan’s march to one-man power
Kadri Gursel/Al-Monitor/November 17/15
In a March 12, 2013, article for Al-Monitor, I wrote, “Turkey’s future is to be decided by the nation's three most powerful men, by the equilibrium they shape among themselves and by deals they forge with each other.” The three powerful men at the time were then-Prime Minister and Justice and Development Party (AKP) Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan; the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) jailed founding leader, Abdullah Ocalan; and Islamic preacher Fethullah Gulen, the head of the Hizmet Movement or “the Community,” who lives in self-exile in the United States.The three men owed their power to a number of common characteristics. They all wielded enormous clout and charisma over their followers, had extraordinary organizational talents and entertained distinct visions for the future and projects for an alternative society. Their interactions, I argued, would determine Turkey's course.
After all the extraordinary developments Turkey has been through since 2013, including the AKP’s unexpectedly big victory margin in the Nov. 1, 2015, elections, I can now assert that Erdogan, using all his power and doing whatever it takes, has managed to overcome all obstacles to become "the man." Gulen and Ocalan have emerged the losers, far behind where they stood in March 2013.
For Erdogan, 2013 was an annus horribilis. The first threat to his political power came in June with the Gezi Park protests, in which more than 3 million people took part in 80 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, according to police figures. The anger boiling over in the streets targeted Erdogan directly, rather than the AKP. Pushing aside the party’s moderates, Erdogan suppressed the monthslong demonstrations with disproportionate and bloody police violence that overrode the basic rights and freedoms enshrined in the constitution.
In December 2013, Erdogan was shaken again, this time with corruption probes that targeted government ministers, members of his family and business cronies. The resulting evidence, including wiretaps — apparently the product of an extensive pursuit and investigative work by the Gulen community’s network within the police and the judiciary — spoke of corruption and bribery at a scale unprecedented in Turkish history. It was an existential challenge not only to Erdogan’s rule but to him as a person, and it galvanized him to strike back with all the power he wielded over the state, politics and the media. The police operations and probes were blocked through overt and direct interventions with the judiciary and the de facto suspension of constitutional provisions.
Erdogan and the AKP emerged victorious from the all-out war they mounted against the Gulen community after the probes. Over the past two years, thousands of judicial officials and police officers deemed to be linked to the community have been removed from office, often unlawfully. Many have been expelled from their professions altogether, and some have been charged with membership in a “terrorist organization” led by Gulen.
The Gulenist media took some of the heaviest blows, including the seizure of the Koza Ipek business group, which owns two newspapers and two TV channels. Many journalists from Gulenist quarters were detained, including five who remain behind bars on charges of espionage and running a terrorist organization. Most recently, on Nov. 15, 13 television and radio channels of the community’s largest media group, Samanyolu, were removed from the state-owned Turksat satellite.
In a clear sign that the government’s war would not be limited to Gulenist media and Gulenist followers within the state, police on Nov. 6 raided the Ankara offices of the Turkish Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists, the umbrella group of Gulenist entrepreneurs. Similar raids on educational institutions linked to the community have already become a virtually routine occurrence.
In sum, Gulen is today a leader whose power and clout within state and society has dramatically diminished. The movement he built since the 1970s is being gradually dismantled by the Erdogan government. As for Ocalan, he has been in prison since 1999 but has perhaps been the world’s most influential inmate. One has to recall that “the peace and settlement process” had officially kicked off March 21, 2013, when a message from Ocalan urging the PKK’s armed units to pull out of Turkey was read to hundreds of thousands of Kurds at Nowruz celebrations in Diyarbakir. The government made a political decision to recognize Ocalan as an interlocutor and placed him at the center of the process. Hence, the process was named after the island of Imrali where Ocalan serves his life sentence in a special prison. The Imrali process, however, had one very important weakness that jeopardized its sustainability. That problem stemmed from Erdogan.
Erdogan built a link of conditionality between the Imrali process and the introduction of the Turkish-style presidential system he aspires to, with that bridge being a constitutional amendment. He made the PKK’s disarmament a precondition for any steps forward, thus deadlocking the process. Ankara refused to take any consensus-building or administrative steps during the process, which ended in July 2015 with Turkish warplanes launching massive raids on PKK targets in northern Iraq. Citing Ankara’s reluctance, the PKK had already suspended its withdrawal from Turkish territory in September 2013.
Erdogan’s ultimate decision to end the Imrali process was precipitated by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party’s (HDP) decision to approach the June 7 elections as a party instead of fielding independents and to build its campaign on the slogan “We won’t let you become an executive president.” As the HDP passed the 10% national threshold to enter parliament, the AKP lost a considerable number of seats, making Erdogan’s objectives more difficult to attain. To make up for the expected losses, Erdogan set his sight on the nationalist vote and changed his tune. He was now saying, "There is no Kurdish problem," thus knocking over the negotiating table. His ire led to a halt in meetings between Ocalan and his lawyers, who used to carry Ocalan’s messages to the PKK. Ocalan’s isolation, which began in April, continues to date.
Amid the reignited conflict, many cities and towns in the predominantly Kurdish southeast are today the scene of destruction and bloodshed. Even if the clashes were stopped tomorrow in favor of talks, the new peace process could hardly be called “the second Imrali process.” This is because Ocalan’s loss of ground and power did not result solely from Erdogan’s moves. In a new shift since the Islamic State’s (IS) seizure of Mosul in June 2014, the PKK leadership, based in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, and the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union Party have emerged as the real allies of the United States, Russia and Iran against IS on the ground. The new situation has empowered the PKK leadership as never before, making it harder for Ankara to have Ocalan as its only interlocutor and continue on its way relying on Ocalan’s power and clout over his organization.
In sharp contrast to 2013, 2014 was Erdogan’s annus mirabilis. In the municipal polls in March last year, the AKP lost 7 percentage points of its electoral support but retained the country’s two biggest cities, Istanbul and Ankara, thus emerging psychologically unscathed. Then, in August, Erdogan won 52% in the first round of the presidential elections, becoming Turkey’s first head of state elected by popular vote. No doubt the opposition’s ineptness played a big part in these election victories. Erdogan’s ascent to the top postmarked Turkey’s shift to “a de facto presidential regime,” as he put it.
By mid-2015, the strains of economic woes, the burden of corruption and the negative image of Erdogan’s new, pompous palace had a combined impact on the electorate, which led to a fatigued and worn-out AKP losing its parliamentary majority in the June 7 elections. Yet, Erdogan refused to give up. He stymied efforts to form a coalition government and took the country to another election Nov. 1.
Meanwhile, press freedom in Turkey had hit an unprecedented low under multifaceted government pressures employed as another election-winning tool. Gripped by fear over the revived conflict with the PKK and terrorist attacks attributed to IS, conservative and right-wing voters pinned their hopes on a strong, one-party government again and handed the AKP an election victory that exceeded even its own expectations. The process that made Erdogan Turkey’s “one and only powerful man” has taken a heavy toll on the country’s constitutional and legal order, its democracy and institutions. Each time Erdogan lost some power, he moved to regain it using all his remaining power, at whatever expense. He might have stepped back at times, but he never chose to reconcile, always playing the zero-sum game. As a result, the AKP government has today become an Erdogan regime. And after the Nov. 1 elections, the only things that can stop this regime now are its own mistakes and structural weaknesses.

Discussing the Middle East’s controversial crises
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
I was a participant at the annual Sir Bani Yas Forum, organized by the Emirati Foreign Ministry, which concluded its work on Sunday. The forum is distinguished by the quality of its subjects, in addition to the participation of elite politicians and intellectuals from across the world. It convened at the Qasr al-Sarab resort in the Liwa Desert of Abu Dhabi, and ran for three days. If it had not been held under Chatham House rules, I would have been able to inform you of many of its controversial discussions, as they are truly significant. One thing I can say without violating the forum’s rules is that all discussions tackled Arab and regional developments. Various comprehensive subjects were addressed, and discussions included scientific and intellectual debates that reflected people’s differences. Interlinked crises. It is no surprise that the region’s crises are linked. Chaos in the Afghan capital Kabul travelled 7,000 kilometers across Asia and Africa to Libya’s capital Tripoli. Why has this contagion traveled across two continents, Asia and Africa, without passing other countries along the way, such as Malta, the closer neighbor?
Although each country has a different cause, these crises remain similar. Disturbed societies all have problems related to governance, power and rights. What countries struck by crises have in common is backwardness. Failure and chaos unite Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and other countries. They have the same characteristics, which are linked to belief, tribes and history. Although each country has a different cause, these crises remain similar. Disturbed societies all have problems related to governance, power and rights. When countries and their leaderships collapse, chaos erupts due to a vacuum as there is nothing left of the state. One can die of cholera in the Iraqi city of Tikrit, or of thirst in the Yemeni city of Taiz, or of cold in the Syrian city of Aleppo - all due to the system’s weakness or collapse. However, disintegration is not a characteristic exclusive to the Middle East. For example, Yugoslavia broke apart in the 1990s, but the Europeans looked after the divided republics and, with U.N. help, supported them and granted them legitimacy. However, disintegration is not a characteristic exclusive to the Middle East, as some say. For example, Iraq is a country that's a combination of different blocs, like the Republic of Yugoslavia which broke apart after Tito's death. The difference between these two examples is in the countries surrounding them. In the case of Yugoslavia, the Europeans looked after the divided republics and, upon the United Nations' help, supported them and granted them legitimacy after a war that didn't last long. In Iraq, however, the country’s official frameworks did not break down due to America’s moves to solidify it. But societal ties were broken down, resulting in ethnic and sectarian divisions which further disintegrated society into smaller circles.
The region’s defects make intellectual gatherings the natural place to discuss alternatives to fighting.

A new Cold War in the Middle East?
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
When Russia attacked Georgia in 2008, commentators gingerly raised the prospect of a new Cold War between Russia and the West. In 2014, when Russia’s client in Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, was toppled from power by the popular uprising at the Euromaidan, a move warmly received by the West especially as the new regime sought integration in the EU and NATO, Russia responded by annexing Crimea and waging a covert war in the east of the country that is going on to this day – and that too intensified talk of a new Cold War. But somehow, Russia’s intervention in the Syrian Civil War has not invited the same analysis. Analysts are perhaps understandably weary of using the phrase “Cold War”, for fear that perhaps that will increase the likelihood that this is what will actually happen. What perhaps they fail to appreciate is the fact that we are in fact in the full swing of a Cold War. Russia believes it is locked in a new Cold War with the U.S. and its NATO allies so it behaves accordingly. And so long as that remains true, we are in a Cold War – however reluctant Western media and politicians might be to acknowledge the fact.
Historic rivals
Here is a short summary of the facts. Russia sees its survival as a state as dependent on being able to control the territories which allow for easy access into the Russian heartland in the eastern Great European Plain. The geography of Russia is such that if a large enough military force has the ability to assemble on any part of this plain, that force can quickly and swiftly go all the way to Moscow. Between the plains of Poland, Ukraine or Georgia, to Moscow, there is nothing to stop a would-be attacker. Hence why Moscow has been attacked and even captured many times throughout Russian history.
This may not be the Cuban Missile Crisis just yet, but it is very much the Cold War all over again. In order to control access to the Plain, Russia needs to control all the countries who used to belong to the U.S.SR and most of the countries who used to belong to the Warsaw pact. And as far as Russia is concerned, the U.S. remains its main rival, and NATO remains the prime strategic threat. The fact that Poland and the Baltic states have been absorbed into NATO in the 90s when Russia was imploding is bad enough. But the idea that NATO will be allowed to expand into Georgia and Ukraine when Russia is strong enough to do anything about it is, to Moscow, anathema. When Georgia signaled its intention to join the alliance, Russia invaded under a semi-arbitrary pretext, and has since frozen the conflict. The exact same scenario is playing out in Ukraine right now. These countries are thus caught in limbo and unable to exercise an independent foreign policy – as was the original strategic aim of the Russians. For its part, the U.S. and the EU have had to respond to the Ukraine crisis with an economic embargo, not much unlike the economic Iron Curtain in place during the Cold War. And trade routes are already reconfiguring accordingly, with the EU working double-speed to wean itself off its dependence on Russian energy imports.
If this isn’t enough to call this a Cold War, well perhaps a proxy war in some far-away “strategic” country will be enough to convince you. Enter the Syrian civil war. The Russians and the West ostensibly have the same objectives and goals in Syria: fighting and destroying ISIS. Except for the reality on the ground. The real conflict they are both interested in is that between the Assad government and what are euphemistically called “the moderate opposition.” Russia on the other hand, and Iran for that matter, are hugely invested in their client in the region, the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Bombs are occasionally dropped on ISIS targets, but the fight against ISIS has been largely left to the Kurds and the Iran-Iraq Shiite militias. The phony war that everyone is currently interested in is between the non-ISIS combatants in the Syrian civil war, and this is a situation not really that removed from Vietnam. It certainly has every potential to head that way. So there we have it: geopolitical alignments, trade politics and proxy wars over client states. Oh, and of course, reinforced NATO deployment in Poland and the Baltics. And Putin building 40 more nuclear missiles this year. This may not be the Cuban Missile Crisis just yet, but it is very much the Cold War all over again.

World must act to destroy this terrorist disease
Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
Paris is in mourning. We are all in mourning for those who thronged the glorious French capital on Friday evening little knowing it would be their last. All except the terrorists and their brain-diseased following who have taken to social media to gleefully celebrate the deaths of 129 innocent people and 300 who have been injured, many critically. My heart goes out to all Parisians and foreign visitors whose lives will for ever be impacted by the actions of evil creatures who have forfeited the right to be called humans let alone Muslims. The stories of survivors are pure horror. An eyewitness who managed to escape from the Bataclan concert venue where over 100 were held hostage by four gunmen wielding Kalashnikovs said: “They were shooting at us as if we were birds.”Predictions based on volleys of threats have come true. Terror nurtured in the war-torn Middle East has infected European soil causing France to declare lockdown, a move unprecedented since the end of World War II. Still reeling from the Charlie Hebdo attacks in January, French authorities were well prepared for a repeat performance. The country was placed on the highest alert.
French intelligence has already thwarted five similar plots but, as we have seen, even a state with a highly efficient security apparatus can be helpless in preventing extremists wearing suicide belts from striking ‘soft targets’ selected for maximum kill. Experts say it is only a matter of time before other European countries share France’s fate. The U.S. is tightening up its own security in its major cities. Many thousands of European nationals have joined ISIS and other terror organizations in Iraq and Syria. Thousands are believed to have returned home battle-hardened and eager to continue their killing spree in their own countries. President Obama could have and should have cut this disease at its roots while in its infancy but he blinked over and over again. Another concern is that ISIS fighters have infiltrated the floods of refugees fleeing bombs and barbarians and the fear is that those desperate people will be penalized as countries that once welcomed them are now pulling down the shutters on their own borders. Who can blame them when they are duty-bound to put their own citizens first! The international community is rallying around the French President Francois Hollande. President Barack Obama, who earlier that same day had praised the demise of ‘Jihadi John’ while announcing that the ISIS was now contained. He was one of the first world leaders to go on camera to express his condolences. “This is an attack on all of humanity and the universal values we share. We stand prepared and ready to provide whatever assistance the people of France need to respond,” he said.
Negligent approach to Iraq and Syria
But even as I heard the American president utter those comforting words, I could not help but contrast his willingness to help protect France with his negligent approach to Iraq and Syria where hundreds of thousands have been slaughtered. Firstly, although the U.S. broke Iraq in 2003, pitting Shiites against Sunnis, Obama has made no efforts to fix it. Instead of negotiating with the Iraqi government to leave a residual U.S. force in country in a serious fashion, he was out to beat a hasty retreat. When just 10,000 or so ISIS terrorists took Mosul, the then Iraqi leader, Nouri al-Maliki practically begged the West to come to his country’s aid and was rebuffed. Kurdish Peshmerga forces pleaded for weapons which were refused. By the time an air campaign was launched the ISIS had grown into a ruthless unstoppable force. And despite coalition bombs and a contingent of U.S. military advisers, this devil’s spawn hiding under the banner of Islam, controls almost a third of Iraq to this day.
Adding insult to injury
Libya has turned out to be yet another fiasco. Thanks to the U.S., France and Britain, Muammar Qaddafi was removed but nothing was done to assist the Libyan people to rid the country of feuding militias or ISIS terrorists posing a direct threat to Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. Worse, the Egyptian government was rapped on the knuckles for bombing the ISIS in Libya in retaliation for its beheading of Coptic Christians and the U.S. still bars the recognized government from importing heavy weapons. Adding insult to injury, not only has the U.S. and its European allies done nothing to free Lebanon from the boot of Iran’s terrorist proxy Hezbollah, earlier this year it, along with its Iranian influencers, was removed from America’s terrorist threat list! The U.S. administration’s approach to the carnage in Syria, where the regime has turned cities into rivers of blood and its country into a haven for terrorists, has been hopeless in the extreme. Obama erased his own “red line” on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons going back on his pledge to bomb regime targets at the nth minute sending opposition plans to gain an advantage up in smoke.
Since then, efforts by the CIA and the Pentagon to train and arm ‘moderate’ opposition elements was an embarrassing failure. Almost all either joined terrorist groups or handed over their American-made weapons in return for safe passage. For over a year, the U.S. and its coalition partners have supposedly been bombing ISIS strongholds with little result; that is until Russia joined the fray on the side of Assad. I am strongly against the Russian involvement to prop up Assad, but there is no getting away from the truth. Russia has wrought more damage on the ISIS in just a few months than the U.S.-led coalition achieved during a far longer period.
And now it appears that the U.S. and its Western partners have done a deal with Moscow to leave Assad temporarily in place with the promise of eventual safe passage out, which the majority of Syrians view as a betrayal of everything they have fought so valiantly to achieve over the past four and a half years.
President Obama could have and should have cut this disease at its roots while in its infancy but he blinked over and over again allowing the cancer to spread all over the Middle East and North Africa, until it reached Europe’s shores. EU states are now paying a very heavy price for his hesitancy in terms of refugees straining their finances and infrastructure as well as their increased vulnerability to terror attacks. Russia has accused the U.S. of knowing exactly where the terrorists are but were not bombing them. We must take that with a pinch of salt but it is possible. Europe is on edge. Britain worries its cities will be next. I am sad to say that the UK has possibly allowed itself to be at risk of such attacks with news last year of extremists marching in London’s streets, shouting threats and handing out recruitment leaflets. To this day, Prime Minister David Cameron has declined to place a terrorist label on what I believe to be the mother ship of just about all Takfiris, the Muslim Brotherhood – under the pretext that as long as they remain law-abiding there is no problem. He is tempting fate and I strongly believe his words will come back to bite him sooner rather than later, if attacks happen in Britain that are proven to have links with the Brotherhood. Will Paris be a game changer? Will major western powers be galvanized to erase this menace from the face of the earth? Will Arab leaderships show their mettle as they are now doing to save Yemen? If not, as much as I hate to say this, the world, as we have always known it, is staring at its doom.

Vienna communiqué on Syria needs additions
Raed Omari/Al Arabiya/November 17/15
For many observers, the outcome of the second Vienna conference on Syria was in favor of Russia’s stance because its ally, President Bashar al-Assad, was not condemned or even mentioned in the final communiqué. Moscow has succeeded in framing the conflict in terms of terrorism, as embodied by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The heavy Russian presence on the ground in Syria has also given Moscow a greater say in the war, as the manager rather than just a key player. The Vienna talks agreed that a gradual political process is the only way to resolve the conflict. This framework puts an end to talk of training and arming Syrian rebels, and makes the regime immune to military action against it.
Omissions
Assad’s fate is still the central issue. Including him in any transition is a nightmare scenario for most Syrians, who have paid such a high price in blood. The Vienna communiqué could have been well-received by the Syrian opposition if it was worded to stipulate at least a face-saving formula for Assad’s departure.
A supplementary attachment to the Vienna communiqué, detailing Assad’s fate and opposition representatives, would add more realism to diplomatic efforts. The communiqué has also not made clear which opposition groups will negotiate and cooperate with the regime. The West has not done enough to enable a fully-fledged Syrian opposition to rival the Russian-backed regime, not only militarily but politically as well. This is not helped by the fractious nature of the opposition both inside and outside Syria. Except perhaps for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), all other armed opposition forces on the ground might be deprived of a presence at the negotiating table. They are waiting to see if they will be blacklisted in a list of terror groups that will be made and then approved by the U.N. Security Council. Apart from the FSA, there are other moderate parties active on the ground, and if they are not well-represented at peace talks, they may have no reason to abide by a ceasefire. A lot still needs to be done to push for an end to Syria’s war. A supplementary attachment to the Vienna communiqué, detailing Assad’s fate and opposition representatives, would add more realism to diplomatic efforts.As the United States and its allies search for the most effective responses to the latest ISIS atrocity, four Washington Institute experts weigh in on key questions concerning refugee policy, increased Turkish participation in the war, the Islamic State's tactical shift toward international terrorism, and Russia's poor fit as an ally against the group. Why is Turkey staying out of the anti-ISIS fight, and how can Washington persuade it to be more helpful? — James F. Jeffrey
Turkey is a reluctant warrior against the self-styled "Islamic State" (a.k.a. ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh) for at least three reasons. First, while it sees ISIS as a threat, it is more concerned with two other priorities: countering Kurdish nationalism of the sort advocated by the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and its Syrian sister organization the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and ousting Bashar al-Assad's regime. Second, while Ankara does not directly support ISIS, it has turned a blind eye to some of its activities, including in Turkey, and it allows freedom of movement to individuals transiting its territory to fight Assad regardless of which group they might belong to. Third, Ankara is attempting to use the prospect of more forceful action against ISIS (beyond opening bases to U.S. operations and conducting a few desultory airstrikes) as leverage to gain Washington's acquiescence on the Turkish no-fly-zone idea in northern Syria, and to pressure the PYD to be more aggressive against Assad and less expansionist in Arab areas near the border with Turkey.
There is no pressure that can change President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's position on this issue. If the United States and its allies want a more active Turkey, then they must at least partially accommodate Ankara. That means taking more care in empowering the PYD and adopting a tougher position on Assad, most likely to include a no-fly zone. Ironically, Washington is reliant on the PYD not only because it refuses to commit U.S. ground troops, but also because it has not been able to enlist serious Turkish participation in the fight. The more Turkey can be persuaded to oppose ISIS actively, the less the United States will need to rely on PYD. The opposite is also true, however -- the more Washington embraces the Syrian Kurds, the more reluctant Turkey will be to enable such an alliance. Does ISIS truly want to create an Islamic State, and would it leave the West alone if the West left it alone? — Matthew Levitt

The U.S. must send ground forces to eliminate the Islamic State
James F. Jeffrey, a former ambassador to Iraq, Turkey and Albania, and deputy national security adviser, is a fellow at the Washington Institute.
The horrific Paris attacks , following a likely Islamic State bombing of a Russian airliner in the Sinai and coming in the midst of the crises emanating from the linked conflicts in Iraq and Syria, demand an answer to this question: When will the United States realize that it urgently needs to use real military force to defeat the Islamic State threat? After almost 18 months of the Obama administration’s half-measures, it’s obvious that defeat of the Islamic State is not going to happen absent a first-class, mobile ground force being launched to mate with overwhelming air power. That ground force does not have to be large — the main U.S. assault force in the largest battle of the second Iraq war, Fallujah in 2004, counted only seven to eight battalions, with reinforcement and support, for a total of 7,000 to 8,000 troops. Nor does it have to be all American. French and other experienced Western troops could complement U.S. forces, as could effective Iraqi and Syrian formations. But without U.S. ground forces, none of this will take place. The Islamic State will hold together its “state,” and its counterattacks — as well as Iranian-Russian exploitation of the Islamic State for their own aggression — will destabilize much of Eurasia and expose the United States again to mass terrorist attacks.
The fact that, even after last week’s Paris attacks, the administration, U.S. presidential candidates and outside experts generally did not embrace this new reality is striking. Former NATO commander James Stavrides and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, a leading establishment figure in the Republican presidential field, urged NATO to take charge of the anti-Islamic State campaign. Other Republican candidates suggested more effective air strikes, and Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton essentially argued for an expanded version of the current U.S. strategy before adding, “It cannot be an American fight.” Only Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) out of the large field of candidates has pressed for significant conventional U.S. ground forces. Why isn’t the obvious — a traditional military operation — getting serious discussion? In part it’s because of this administration’s “no military solution for anything” mantra, and in part it’s because many Americans, not to speak of our European allies (the British Parliament just opted out of air operations over Syria), consider military operations, and especially ground military operations, in the Middle East to be counterproductive at best and disasters in the making at worst.
Play Video2:20
Obama speaks about the Islamic State and refugees following the Paris attacks
President Obama made remarks and answered questions at the G-20 summit in Turkey on Nov. 13. Here's what he said about the path forward fighting the Islamic State, welcoming Muslims and protecting Syrian refugees. (AP) Even before the Paris attacks, polls showed that a large majority of Americans were disillusioned with the administration’s campaign against the Islamic State and recognized Islamic militancy as a dangerous threat, but more than half still opposed the use of U.S. ground troops. This mind-set was greatly strengthened by the struggles of our ground forces in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but its roots lie in the failed interventions in Somalia, Beirut and, of course, Vietnam. But that mind-set ignores the reality behind these failures. All of these were interventions in civil wars or counterinsurgencies, committing conventional U.S. forces to solving interminable social conflicts and nation-building. That’s not what a rapid takedown of the Islamic States’s quasi-conventional force would require. A second criticism is that use of ground forces requires convincing, detailed answers to the “day after” questions regarding how to organize large geographic areas, provide security to liberated populations and secure hope for a better future as an alternative to extremism. That is true, but however one responds to those questions, the answer must not include Western troops as an occupying force. Moreover, while figuring out the “day after” might be difficult and implementing any solutions costly, it likely would be easier and less costly than dealing long-term with an Islamic State “state.”
Another argument against U.S. ground troops is a possible alternative: truly serious, industrial-strength U.S. air power and an advisory effort linked to local ground troops, with liberal rules of engagement and forward-deployed U.S. Special Operations forces. While such approaches worked in Afghanistan in 2001, northern Iraq in 2003, Basra in 2008 and Kunduz a month ago, they have not really been tried against the Islamic State. The problem, however, is that we no longer have the time to see if such a suboptimal approach might work, nor do we have sufficient effective local partners. The various Kurdish elements, Iraqi security forces, Sunni tribes, Shiite militias and Syrian resistance fighters on the ground have no common loyalty; many of them confront one another as often as they do the Islamic State. We simply cannot resolve these issues in the time necessary to make this group the primary offensive force.
Finally, the imperative to avoid U.S. casualties usually ends debates about ground troops. While short, crisp offensive operations usually generate relatively limited losses, the truth is that no one can predict casualty levels, and any combat deaths are a tragedy and political risk. But we need to be honest. The Syrian civil war has generated millions of refugees and hundreds of thousands of civilian dead. The Islamic State itself has taken tens of thousands of innocent lives in the region, and now hundreds more civilian lives in Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon and France. At what point does such a growing river of gore justify risking American lives?
*Joel Dreyfuss: Being in the Stade de France attack was scary. So is France’s future.
*Richard Cohen: The Paris attacks change everything
**James F. Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz distinguished fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He served as U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2008 to 2010 and Iraq from 2010 to 2012
Unlike previous ISIS-inspired plots, the Paris attacks were "prepared and planned elsewhere, with outside involvement." That alone is a significant tactical shift for ISIS, and one that cannot be explained away as a response to gains made by the U.S.-led coalition in Syria and Iraq -- such attacks take much longer to prepare, and they were surely already in the works when ISIS suffered its most recent setbacks. Moreover, the attacks did not take place in a vacuum -- they followed a series of other international terrorist strikes claimed by ISIS in Turkey, Lebanon, and Egypt.
Yet while the recent foreign plots were a new step for the group, they should not have been unexpected. ISIS describes its goals as "enduring and expanding," but that is not all it seeks to accomplish. Its ideology is explicitly apocalyptic, looking to draw "the Romans" (i.e. the infidel West) into a dramatic battle that will presage Judgement Day. Prophecies about an end-of-days battle in the Syrian town of Dabiq permeate ISIS statements and literature. The group's English-language magazine is even called Dabiq; as its editors explain, "The area will play a historical role in the battles leading up to the conquests of Constantinople, then Rome." The prophecies to which ISIS adheres demand conquest not just in the Middle East, but all over the world. As Will McCants explains in his excellent book The ISIS Apocalypse, "The Islamic State has stoked the apocalyptic fire," fanning the flames of a dangerous ideology that respects no boundaries.
What happens if Europe turns up the heat on Syrian refugees? — Fabrice Balanche
Since the Paris attacks, several countries have decided to suspend the reception of Syrian refugees or allow entry to Christians alone, who are unlikely to be creatures of ISIS. This measure is partly an excuse to avoid taking their share of responsibility for the Syrian drama. If the decision stands and becomes a universal policy in Europe, it would engender feelings of hopelessness among many refugees that could in turn spur a huge wave of radicalization, particularly among those who fought the Assad regime.
In my many interviews with Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan over the past two years, I noticed their strong bitterness against Western countries: "You have pushed us to lift against Bashar al-Assad, you have promised us military help, but nothing came, as when Assad crossed the redline. Because we have trusted, we lost everything: we cannot come back to Syria, we are stuck in this miserable camp in Lebanon where we have no future."
Indeed, humanitarian aid is falling, and Lebanese authorities are exerting stronger pressure on refugees to return to Syria. Heading for Europe is often their only hope, even if the quest takes years. The complete closure of European borders would strike many Syrian refugees as a new betrayal by the West. "You have betrayed us, and only ISIS can help us regain our dignity": that is how most of my interviews ended in 2014, and one year later the situation is worse for the refugees.
How useful is Russia in combating ISIS? — Anna Borshchevskaya
Numerous reports indicate that the vast majority of Russia's airstrikes have not been directed against ISIS targets. Rather, Moscow's Syria intervention has exacerbated the flow of refugees fleeing Assad, emboldened ISIS by helping to eliminate its opponents (including those backed by the West), and disheartened U.S. regional allies in the absence of a coherent Western response.
Vladimir Putin's consistent support for Assad since 2011 also contributed to the growth of ISIS. According to an extensive July report by Elena Milashina of Novaya Gazeta, one of the few remaining independent newspapers in Russia, the Kremlin's special services have controlled the flow of Islamist radicals from Russia into Syria since 2011, and sometimes even assisted their entry. Other reports and private conversations with experts support this report. Rather than help solve the problem, Russia's Federal Security Service preferred to hand it off to others. As a result, terrorist attacks in Russia and elsewhere will likely increase once these fighters return home. Meanwhile, Russia's policies in the North Caucasus have done little to reduce the pool of potential recruits for ISIS and other terrorist groups. In the past, Putin has not shied away from supporting Islamists abroad. For instance, he did not object when Assad allowed radical Islamists to transit Syria into Iraq. It is in Russia's interest to genuinely fight ISIS, especially given the instability in the North Caucasus, but Putin's primary concern is to stay in power and divide the West. He is using the tragic Paris events as an opportunity to push the West to accept his agenda. A true global leader considers international security rather than pushing his own narrow interests at the expense of others, including his own people. In this context, Putin's Russia is a poor ally in the fight against ISIS.

Targeting Europe's Refugees Is Not the Answer
Aaron Y. Zelin/Washington Istitute/November 16, 2015
Refugee-baiters and their proposed policies will only further undermine future European security.
In light of Friday's terrorist attacks in Paris, the question of Syrian refugees fleeing to Europe has come into sharp focus -- and been politicized by European and U.S. politicians and commentators across the spectrum. Indeed, this past summer, an exponential increase occurred in the number of individuals making these difficult journeys. The flights were spurred in part by the Assad regime and its allies' continued assaults on civilian populations and in part by increasing territorial gains by the jihadist groups ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra. Many individuals living in refugee camps thus despaired that they would ever actually return home. Given that most refugees simply want a safer and better life for their children, and that current media and policy discussions are not considering this issue's many facets, clarification is essential on misconceptions related to ISIS, refugees, and potential future challenges within Europe in particular.
How ISIS Views Syrian Refugees. For those seeking to blame the Paris attacks on refugees, a look at ISIS's stance on refugees is instructive. Of particular note is how ISIS could be using these attacks to stoke tensions between European ethnic majorities and the Muslim minorities and newly arrived refugees. Equally important, the migrant flow is anathema to ISIS, undermining the group's message that its self-styled caliphate is a refuge. If it were a refuge, then hundreds of thousands of people would surely be settling in its lands instead of risking their lives on miserable journeys to Europe. The hostile reaction to refugees, therefore, only bolsters ISIS's contentions and risks spurring future, avoidable tensions.
As for ISIS's actual gestures regarding refugees, the group released twelve videos between September 16 and 19 aimed at inserting itself into a discussion highlighted by deaths at sea and, especially, the crushing image of Alan Kurdi, the child who washed up dead on a Turkish beach. These videos were released by the group's respective "provinces" in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen and aimed both at warning potential refugees of the risks and costs of traveling to Europe and urging them to take refuge in its caliphate.For example, in its video from Wilayat Salah al-Din (Iraq), ISIS argues that Muslims should leave the infidel's lands for the lands of Islam, but not vice versa, and that happiness can only be found in the ISIS caliphate. Moreover, in a message from its Wilayat al-Janub (Iraq), ISIS declares that Muslims cannot live or seek refuge in non-Muslim lands and that doing so amounts to apostasy, in effect legitimizing the refugees' spilt blood. ISIS's Wilayat al-Furat, on the Syria-Iraq border, militates against migration on the grounds that refugees would be subject to human laws rather than sharia. As a result, according to Wilayat al-Raqqa (Syria), the migrants' children would abandon Islam -- even though Europe's Muslim population has continued growing in recent decades through various waves of migration. Another claim holds that Europe is only accepting Muslim refugees as a tactic to increase the Shiite, Druze, and Christian population to defeat ISIS in Syria. Based in northwestern Syria, ISIS's Wilayat al-Barakah notes further that accepting refugees allegedly forces Muslims to work for Europe's interests, thereby weakening Islam.
In a video from Wilayat al-Khayr (eastern Syria), ISIS offers advice to those who have already left, stating Muslims should not mix or fraternize with infidels. It likewise suggests that such Muslims will be forced to convert to Christianity in exchange for money or citizenship and that they will be forfeiting their reward in paradise. ISIS's Wilayat al-Fallujah shows video clips of refugees being beaten by police and claiming that true happiness and dignity can only be had in Muslim countries. Further, in a message from Wilayat Hadramawt (Yemen), ISIS pushes refugees to actually imagine life once they leave Syria, including exposure to drowning and human smugglers, followed by the injustices and outrages to be experienced in Europe. In a video from Wilayat Homs (Syria), ISIS warns of the threat of conversion and then pivots to describe, by contrast, how ISIS has cared for refugees from the Syrian regime. Wilayat al-Jazirah (on the Syria-Iraq border), for its part, interviews individuals who fled the Kurdish Peshmerga for ISIS territory and boasts of the good life they are now living. Similarly, Wilayat Halab (northern Syria) released a video juxtaposing foreign fighters migrating to ISIS territory with scenes of refugees being mistreated in Europe. Finally, Wilayat Dijlah (Iraq) claims without any proof that many more Syrians are migrating to its caliphate than seeking refuge in places elsewhere internally in Iraq or Syria, in refugee camps, or in Europe.
What ISIS Hopes to Gain
zed society in Iraq and Syria, ISIS hopes to do the same in Europe by compelling individuals to take sides and fall back on more tribal, instinctive feelings -- or eliminating the "gray zone," as the group has previously described it. As ISIS and many others are aware, Europe has struggled to integrate many migrant communities in recent decades, leading some second- and third-generation residents to experience an identity crisis. Cognitive openings have followed, which jihadist recruiters have at times filled with a perceived new and stronger identity as well as a more black-and-white worldview. Therefore, an individual who does not feel completely Pakistani or British in Britain, Algerian or French in France, or -- possibly in the future -- Syrian or German in Germany can now identify solely as a Sunni Muslim.
As a consequence, it is essential to take steps to prevent individuals from giving in to emotional impulses that could further exacerbate Europe's security dilemma. As this relates to refugees, it is true that ISIS could exploit the crisis to insert operatives into Europe. At the same time, however, one must remember that the group already has thousands of members with European Union passports and has very good document forgers. Therefore, the sole reason for nesting additional operatives in the refugee flows would be to spark a backlash against Syrian and other refugees as well as the native Muslim populations of Europe. Even if this happens, the few jihadist operatives that slip through should not be used to tar the other 99 percent. Therefore, the United States and Europe should continue to carefully monitor entrants at their borders but also provide the necessary support networks and assistance so that newly arrived refugees feel welcomed and part of their broader society. Without a long-term vision for integrating refugees, and by relying solely on moral imperative, European countries will likely see problems similar to those that have already plagued their migrant policies. Refugees, meanwhile, must understand the ways in which responsibilities and expectations as a resident and future citizen of a liberal democracy differ from those as a subject in an authoritarian society. None of these steps will be easy, but with mutual respect, understanding, and education, Europe can look forward to a brighter picture in the long run. Needless to say, the refugee-baiters, their rhetoric, and their proposed policies will lead to self-fulfilling ends and make everyone less safe.
*Aaron Y. Zelin is the Richard Borow Fellow at The Washington Institute.

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