LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 09/15

Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.november09.15.htm 

Bible Quotation For Today/Who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit.
John 10/01-06: "‘Very truly, I tell you, anyone who does not enter the sheepfold by the gate but climbs in by another way is a thief and a bandit. The one who enters by the gate is the shepherd of the sheep. The gatekeeper opens the gate for him, and the sheep hear his voice. He calls his own sheep by name and leads them out. When he has brought out all his own, he goes ahead of them, and the sheep follow him because they know his voice. They will not follow a stranger, but they will run from him because they do not know the voice of strangers.’Jesus used this figure of speech with them, but they did not understand what he was saying to them."

Bible Quotation For Today/But Jesus has now obtained a more excellent ministry, and to that degree he is the mediator of a better covenant, which has been enacted through better promises
Letter to the Hebrews 08/01-06." The main point in what we are saying is this: we have such a high priest, one who is seated at the right hand of the throne of the Majesty in the heavens, a minister in the sanctuary and the true tent that the Lord, and not any mortal, has set up. For every high priest is appointed to offer gifts and sacrifices; hence it is necessary for this priest also to have something to offer. Now if he were on earth, he would not be a priest at all, since there are priests who offer gifts according to the law. They offer worship in a sanctuary that is a sketch and shadow of the heavenly one; for Moses, when he was about to erect the tent, was warned, ‘See that you make everything according to the pattern that was shown you on the mountain.’ But Jesus has now obtained a more excellent ministry, and to that degree he is the mediator of a better covenant, which has been enacted through better promises."

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on November 08-09/15
First theater play about the Lebanese emigres': "Al Muhajer"/Dr. Walid Phares/November 08/15
Vienna Failure: The Meaningless Race to Highjack the Political Solution in Syria/Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
After Dunford Visit, US Recalibrates Iraq Strategy/Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
Syria and Iraq Will Define the Future of the Middle East/Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
Washington’s New Dual Track Strategy for Syria and Iraq/Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
Turkey's Stockholm Syndrome/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/November 08/15
Germany: Migration Crisis Becomes Public Health Crisis/Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 08/15
Is a new Syria chemical weapons massacre looming/Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
Moscow needs an exit strategy for its Syrian quagmire/Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
Iraq, Syria and Libya no longer exist/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
Why don’t many Saudi graduates have skills for employment/Khaled Almaeena/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
No good news in the Mid East for Obama or Netanyahu when they meet Monday/DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 8, 2015

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on November 08-09/15
First theater play about the Lebanese emigres': "Al Muhajer"
Alain Aoun: FPM, LF Will Not Boycott Legislative Session
Spy Network Working for Israel Busted in South
Al-Rahi: Normal Legislation Cannot Take Place in Absence of President
Report: Berri to Hold Absentee Blocs Responsible for Failure of Financial Aspects of Legislative Session
Raad Says Void Better than President Elected by 'Majority Lacking Clear Vision'

Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And News published on November 08-09/15
Pope Deplores Vatican Leaks, Vows to Continue Reforms
Saint Petersburg Bells Toll 224 Times for Egypt Crash Victims
Kenya's Jackson Limo Wins 13th BDL International Beirut Marathon
Knife, Car Attacks in West Bank Wound 5, Attackers Shot
Saudi Executes Three Iranian Drug Traffickers
Probe team: bomb likely downed Russian jet
Iran appoints first woman ambassador since revolution
After lull, U.S.-led air campaign in Syria intensifies
Netanyahu stresses defence aid ahead of Obama meeting
UK seeks extra security abroad in wake of Russian jet crash
Iran plans to be ‘actively present’ in next Syria peace talks
Iran-Europe relations ‘enter determining stage’
Tunisians rally to support Palestine ‘uprising’
10 dead in Syria regime raids on ISIS-held town
Knife, car attacks in West Bank wound 5, attackers shot
Iran plans to be ‘actively present’ in next Syria peace talks
Iran-Europe relations ‘enter determining stage’
Iran-Backed Rebels Retake Positions in South Yemen
Jordanians mourn shock deaths of prominent sisters
As Green March turns 40, Moroccan king pledges more support to W. Saharans

Links From Jihad Watch Site for November 08-09/15
Muslims from UK linked to downing of Russian jet
Michigan: Majority Muslim city council elected, “Today we show the Polish and everybody else”
Report: UC Merced stabber was on terror watch list, had Islamic State flag
India’s VP: Western countries wrong to link Islam with terrorism
Pakistan’s spy service engages jihadis to vandalize Hindu sites in India

Alain Aoun: FPM, LF Will Not Boycott Legislative Session
Naharnet/November 08/15/Change and Reform bloc MP Alain Aoun revealed that the Free Patriotic Movement and Lebanese Forces are cooperating to “provide the conditions needed to attend the upcoming legislative session,” reported the pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat on Sunday. He told the daily: “The FPM and LF are not boycotting the meeting, but working on the necessary conditions for it.” Their demands should be taken into account seeing as they cater to the needs of Christians, explained the lawmaker. “We may attend the session and include the parliamentary electoral law on its agenda,” he added.
“We are still giving room for contacts to reach a solution and the demands of Christians,” stressed Aoun. Speculation has been rife in the media on whether the two main Christian blocs of the LF and FPM will attend next week's legislative session. The two rival parties have threatened to boycott the meeting over the failure to include the contentious parliamentary electoral law on its agenda. The session is scheduled for November 12 and 13. The Kataeb Party has announced its boycott over the ongoing failure to elect a new president.

Spy Network Working for Israel Busted in South
Naharnet/November 08/15/General Security announced on Sunday the arrest of a spy network working for Israel. It said that it arrested a Syrian, his Lebanese wife, and another Lebanese national in the South on espionage charges. The detainees confessed to gathering information on various security and military figures for the purpose of assassination. They photographed roads and other “sensitive” areas in the South, said the General Security in a statement. The images and films were then sent to their superiors.Military Examining Magistrate Judge Saqr Saqr oversaw the investigation and they have since been referred to the concerned judiciary. Efforts are ongoing to apprehend all members of the network.

Al-Rahi: Normal Legislation Cannot Take Place in Absence of President
Naharnet/November 08/15/Maronite Patriarch Beshara al-Rahi criticized on Sunday the upcoming legislative session, saying that attention should be focused on the election of a president. He said during his Sunday sermon: “Normal legislation cannot take place in light of the the presidential vacuum.” “Parliament's priority should be the election of a new head of state,” he added. He warned however of the financial dangers facing Lebanon because parliament had not held a legislative session since November 2014. In addition, al-Rahi underlined the distinction between the parliamentary electoral law and the law on restoring the nationality of expatriates. “I do not understand why these two issues are being linked together,” he said. Parliament is set to hold a legislative session on November 12 and 13 amid a boycott of the Kataeb Party over the failure to elect a new president. The Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement are also considering a boycott over the failure to include the parliamentary electoral law on the session's agenda. The two sides had recently signed an agreement on the draft-law on restoring the nationality of expatriates.

Report: Berri to Hold Absentee Blocs Responsible for Failure of Financial Aspects of Legislative Session
Naharnet/November 08/15/Speaker Nabih Berri will hold the boycotting parliamentary blocs accountable for the failure to meet the needed quorum to hold next week's legislative session, reported the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat on Sunday. Sources close to the speaker said: “The boycotting blocs will be held responsible for the failure to approve draft projects linked to Lebanon's financial situation.” The legislative session is set for November 12 and 13, amid speculation over the potential boycott of the Lebanese Forces and Free Patriotic Movement. The two blocs have voiced their objection to the failure to include the parliamentary electoral law on the session's agenda. Media reports in recent weeks have warned that Lebanon is in danger of losing international loans and grants due to the paralysis of its state institutions, prompting Berri to call for a legislative session. The Kuwaiti daily al-Anba reported on Sunday that 31 Christian MPs out of 64 will attend next week's session, which will “bolster its legality.”

Raad Says Void Better than President Elected by 'Majority Lacking Clear Vision'
Naharnet/November 08/15/Hizbullah's top lawmaker Mohammed Raad noted Sunday that his party prefers continued presidential vacuum over the election of a head of state by “a majority lacking a clear vision for confronting the threats that are facing the country.”“Betting on the election of a president by a majority lacking a clear vision for confronting the threats that are facing the country will make us lose our entire homeland, even if that happens in a constitutional manner,” Raad warned. “The country is now safeguarded, and we hope a constitutional act will come to preserve the achievements of the resistance fighters and the accomplishments of this country's people,” the head of the Loyalty to Resistance bloc added. Hizbullah, the Free Patriotic Movement and some of their allies have been boycotting electoral sessions aimed at choosing a new president for more than a year now. They are demanding that political parties agree on a candidate before heading to parliament for a vote. “We are very keen on electing a president for the Lebanese republic as soon as possible, but we don't tolerate crippling state institutions over the continued disagreement on the president's affiliation and characteristics,” Raad added, referring to the paralyzed cabinet and parliament. “We want the cabinet and the parliament to convene, and should we disagree over this necessity we must not disagree over the fact that this country must be for all its sons and that no one in it can eliminate or exclude others,” the lawmaker went on to say. Turning to Hizbullah's military intervention in Syria, Raad said his party has “made great progress in confronting the takfiris' threat.”"The current action in Syria is aimed at completing what we have already achieved in order to find a political settlement that does not involve the realization of any of these groups' objectives,” he said. Raad noted that the current Vienna negotiations over Syria's crisis “will definitely affect our situation in Lebanon.” “But with all due honesty, and without any illusions, we do not trust a lot of the parties who are meeting in Vienna … because we cannot be reassured about a party sitting around the negotiations table and, at the same time, supplying the takfiri terrorists with the most modern of weapons,” Raad added.

First theater play about the Lebanese emigres': "Al Muhajer"
Dr. Walid Phares/ November 08/15
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/11/08/dr-walid-phares-first-theater-play-about-the-lebanese-emigres-al-muhajer/
The first theater play (masrahiya) performed in Lebanon after 1943, and possibly the first ever, addressing the Lebanese emigres' was titled "Al Muhajer" (The emigrant). It was written by my father Attorney Halim Phares to honor the majority of Lebanese living in dozens of countries around the world
Father's admiration of the Lebanese Diaspora had roots in historical events he witnessed as a child. As World War One started when he was 5, he witnessed the Ottoman blockade of Mount Lebanon and saw death by famine and desolation across the Petit Liban. He was sent with our grandmother to Chekka where she worked at a bakery during the war. Upon his return to Ghouma (Batroun), our ancestral village he realized that some families had died of famine while many others had left. He was told they "emigrated" (haajaru). Since then the vision of tens of thousands who had to emigrate their motherland to survive, leaving behind them loved ones and dismembered families, impacted him. He lived the saga of the "Muhajirin" emigres, exactly a hundred years ago. He developed an emotional and intellectual interest in their fate, future and linkages to Lebanon and imagined sceneries of reunions taking place in Lebanon after their return. Halim believed in a return of the emigres', one day.
During his studies at Saint Joseph University, and a as a young lawyer, he often wrote poetry about and translated literature by emigrants, including Gebran. As France was leaving Lebanon after WWII, the young lawyer freshly married, decided to remind the public about those millions of emigres' and their descendants across the world. He was concerned that those who left were not given their nationality. Thus he wrote what was the first play centered on the leaving, life and return of emigrants, mainly from and back to their villages. The play was directed by Saad el Dine Sami Ramadan, and opened on June 24, 1948 at the Theater of the Cercle de la Jeunesse Catholique (CJC) and offered to the "valor of Lebanese soldiers" under the sponsorship of the Minister of Defense, Mir Majid Erslan.
It was attended by the "tout Beyrouth" (all Beirut) and among the attendance previous and future Presidents, Ministers and deputies, many among whom where Halim's students.
Father's admiration of emigres' was transmitted to me over the years as he recounted stories and tales about those who left and who became a world of its own. Ironically but not strangely I developed an interest in the emigres' communities via my lectures, travel and later on via my public service in the mother land and internationally at the service of this nation dispersed across the globe. I was perhaps continuing the work of my father.
Hopefully one day, we will be able to celebrate this play and the work of Maitre Halim Phares on behalf of Lebanon's emigres'.

Pope Deplores Vatican Leaks, Vows to Continue Reforms
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 08/15/Pope Francis on Sunday pledged to follow up reforms in the Church, despite what he called "deplorable" leaks revealing his fury over uncontrolled spending by the Vatican. "I want to assure you that this sad fact will not prevent me from the reforms which will proceed with my collaborators and the backing of you all," he said after Angelus prayers. The pope was speaking for the first time since the arrest last weekend of an Italian PR expert and a Spanish priest on suspicion of stealing and leaking classified documents to the media. "I know that many of you are perturbed by the recent news on the secret documents of the Holy See which were taken and published," he said. "Publishing these documents was an error," he added. "It was a deplorable act which does not help."

Saint Petersburg Bells Toll 224 Times for Egypt Crash Victims
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 08/15/Saint Petersburg on Sunday remembered the victims of the Sinai plane crash, with the bell of the iconic St. Isaac's Cathedral tolling 224 times in memory of each person killed. At an emotional memorial service at one of the former imperial capital's most famous symbols, a chamber choir sang as several hundred mourners looked on. Outside, the bell rang 224 times, the cathedral's majestic golden dome prominent in the grey autumn sky.
The ceremony was broadcast live on national television, with pictures of the victims accompanied by the sound of the bell. Staff at the St. Isaac's Cathedral, which is a museum, said that the catastrophe had claimed the lives of one of their employees, Irina Sharova, and her 13-year-old daughter. One of the mourners, Alla Mikhailova, said she could not stop thinking about the crash, Russia's deadliest aviation tragedy. "A week has passed but I still cannot come to my senses," the 38-year-old told AFP. "I believe this, this wound will remain with us forever." Maria Semenchuk, 50, said she had come to pray for the victims. "That's the only thing we can do for them," she told AFP outside the cathedral. An Airbus A-321 carrying 224 people, most of them Russian tourists, crashed in the Sinai Peninsula as it was returning from the Egyptian resort area of Sharm el-Sheikh to Saint Petersburg on October 31. Most of the passengers were from Saint Petersburg and the surrounding region. After Washington and London said they believed the Russian passenger jet might have been taken down by a bomb, Moscow on Friday halted all flights to Egypt.

Kenya's Jackson Limo Wins 13th BDL International Beirut Marathon
Naharnet/November 08/15/Kenyan runner Jackson Limo won on Sunday the 13th edition of the Banque du Liban International Beirut Marathon. He broke last year's record, clocking in at 2:11:05. Morocco's Kaltoum Bousayriya meanwhile won the women's 42 km race, with a time of 2:36:05. Edward Maalouf won the special needs race crossing it in 1:18:24 and Britain's Elizabeth Anne Mac Terman won the women's special needs 42 km race at 1:38:57. The marathon got underway on Sunday with participants from 85 countries. The race kicked off in the early morning hours with over 37,000 runners. The marathon consists of the main 42 km race, women's race, youth race, and half race. World record marathon holder Paula Radcliffe is serving as Beirut marathon's ambassador. She holds the record time of 2:15:25, which she set at the 2003 London Marathon. The British runner's prolific career has seen her win the London and New York marathons three times each and the Chicago marathon once. The 41-year-old retired earlier this year. Ethiopian athlete Fikadu Girma was the winner of the 2014 BDL Beirut International Marathon.

Knife, Car Attacks in West Bank Wound 5, Attackers Shot
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 08/15/
A car-ramming attack and a stabbing wounded five Israelis in the West Bank on Sunday while the two alleged assailants were shot, authorities said, the latest in a weeks-long wave of violence. In the first incident, a Palestinian rammed a group of Israelis with a car at a junction, wounding four of them, and was then killed by security forces, police said. The alleged attacker was said to have driven the car into an area south of Nablus where Israelis typically gather to hitch rides. A checkpoint is located nearby and Israeli border police opened fire. Israeli public radio described two of the wounded as in a serious condition. Later, a Palestinian woman stabbed a security guard near a West Bank settlement and was shot by the victim, the Israeli police and army said. The incident occurred at the entrance to the Beitar Illit settlement south of Jerusalem. The fate of the woman was not immediately clear. A wave of knife, gun and car attacks have hit Israel and the Palestinian territories since the start of October. The violence has left 73 Palestinians dead, around half of them alleged attackers. Nine Israelis have also been killed as well as one Arab Israeli. Violent protests have also erupted in annexed east Jerusalem, the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Unrest has waned somewhat in recent days, though sporadic attacks have continued. The latest violence came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to leave for Washington on Sunday to meet U.S. President Barack Obama. The meeting will be centered on U.S. defense aid to Israel following the July nuclear accord between major powers and Iran, but the recent Israeli-Palestinian violence is also expected to be discussed. At the start of a cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said he will speak with Obama about "possible progress with the Palestinians, or at least stabilizing the situation with them, and, of course, strengthening the security of the state of Israel".

Saudi Executes Three Iranian Drug Traffickers
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 08/15/Saudi Arabia on Sunday executed three Iranians convicted of drug trafficking, the interior ministry said, bringing to 145 the number of death sentences carried out in the kingdom this year. The three convicts had attempted to "smuggle a large amount of hashish by sea" into Saudi Arabia, the ministry said in a statement published on the official SPA news agency. They were executed in the eastern port city of Dammam, it said. Saudi executions are usually carried out by beheading with a sword. According to AFP tallies, their cases bring to 145 the number of locals and foreigners executed in the conservative Islamic kingdom this year, compared with 87 in 2014. Rights experts have raised concerns about the fairness of trials in the kingdom. London-based Amnesty International says Saudi Arabia had the world's third-highest number of executions last year, far behind China and Iran, but ahead of Iraq and the United States. Under the kingdom's strict Islamic legal code, murder, drug trafficking, armed robbery, rape and apostasy are all punishable by death.

Probe team: bomb likely downed Russian jet
By Maram Mazen and Nour Youssef The Associated Press Sunday, 8 November 2015/Investigators of the Russian plane crash in Egypt are “90 percent sure” the noise heard in the final second of a cockpit recording was an explosion caused by a bomb, a member of the investigation team told Reuters on Sunday. The Airbus A321 crashed 23 minutes after taking off from the Sharm al-Sheikh tourist resort eight days ago, killing all 224 passengers and crew. ISIS militants fighting Egyptian security forces in Sinai said they brought it down. “The indications and analysis so far of the sound on the black box indicate it was a bomb,” said the Egyptian investigation team member, who asked not to be named due to sensitivities. “We are 90 percent sure it was a bomb.”His comments reflect a much greater degree of certainty about the cause of the crash than the investigation committee has so far declared in public. Lead investigator Ayman al-Muqaddam announced on Saturday that the plane appeared to have broken up in mid-air while it was being flown on auto-pilot, and that a noise had been heard in the last second of the cockpit recording. But he said it was too soon to draw conclusions about why the plane crashed. Confirmation that militants brought down the airliner could have a devastating impact on Egypt’s lucrative tourist industry, which has suffered from years of political turmoil and was hit last week when Russia, Turkey and several European countries suspended flights to Sharm al-Sheikh and other destinations. It could also mark a new strategy by the hardline ISIS group which holds large parts of Syria and Iraq. Asked to explain the remaining 10 percent margin of doubt, the investigator declined to elaborate, but Muqaddam cited other possibilities on Saturday including a fuel explosion, metal fatigue in the plane or lithium batteries overheating. He said debris was scattered over a 13-km (8-mile) area “which is consistent with an in-flight break-up.”Game changer’“What happened in Sharm al-Sheikh last week, and to a lesser extent with the ... (Germanwings) aircraft, are game changers for our industry,” Emirates Airlines President Tim Clark said, referring to the crash of a Germanwings airliner in the French Alps in March, believed crashed deliberately by its co-pilot. “They have to be addressed at industry level because no doubt the countries -- U.S., Europe -- I would think will make some fairly stringent, draconian demands on the way aviation works with security,” he said at the Dubai Airshow. Clark said he had ordered a security review but was not suspending any flights as a result of the disaster. Emirates does not operate regular flights to Sharm al-Sheikh. British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond also said the incident could lead to changes in flight security. “If this turns out to be a device planted by an ISIL operative or by somebody inspired by ISIL, then clearly we will have to look again at the level of security we expect to see in airports in areas where ISIL is active,” Hammond told the BBC. ISIS, which wants to establish a caliphate in the Middle East, is also called ISIS or ISIL. ISIS militants fighting security forces in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula have said they brought down the aircraft as revenge for Russian air strikes against Islamist fighters in Syria. They said they would eventually tell the world how they carried out the attack. If the group was responsible, it would have carried out one of the highest profile killings since al-Qaeda flew passenger planes into New York’s World Trade Center in September 2001. Russia has returned 11,000 of its tourists from Egypt in the last 24 hours, RIA news agency said on Sunday, a fraction of the 80,000 Russians who were stranded by the Kremlin’s decision on Friday to halt all flights to Egypt. In St Petersburg, where the flight was headed on Oct. 31, the bell of St Isaac’s Cathedral rang 224 times and a service was held in memory of the victims. Russia has sent specialists to conduct a safety audit of Egypt’s airports and to provide recommendations on additional measures, Arkady Dvorkovich, deputy prime minister, was quoted as saying by Russian agencies. Dvorkovich, the head of a government group created on Friday to deal with suspended flights to Egypt, added a second group was going to Egypt on Sunday and a third would be sent later. Britain, which has 3,000 nationals waiting to return home, has sent a team of 70 people, including 10 aviation specialists working at Sharm al-Sheikh airport to make sure security measures are being followed. Eight flights were expected to take British tourists back home on Sunday.

Iran appoints first woman ambassador since revolution
AFP, Tehran Sunday, 8 November 2015/Iran has appointed its first woman ambassador since the 1979 Islamic revolution, naming foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham to head its embassy in Malaysia, the foreign minister announced on Sunday. “Choosing Afkham as ambassador took a few minutes but choosing her successor took four months,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said at a ceremony in Tehran for the 50-year-old career diplomat who will be replaced at the ministry by a man, Jaber Ansari. Iranian media first said back in April that Afkham was lined up for promotion to the rank of ambassador, but the reports were unconfirmed. Zarif paid tribute to Afkham, who was also the first woman in the Islamic republic to serve as foreign ministry spokeswoman, saying she had carried out her duties for two years with “dignity, bravery and particular insight.” In turn, the new ambassador to Kuala Lumpur, quoted by state news agency IRNA, praised Zarif for “the courage to take such a decision” and for his “trust in women.”After his 2013 election, Iran’s moderate President Hassan Rowhani called on ministers to appoint women to high posts and said his government would stand up against discrimination, naming three women to the country’s 11 vice presidential positions. Although deemed more liberal than those of many Arab countries, Iran’s laws since the revolution have been criticized as unfair to women in cases of marriage, divorce and inheritance. While women may hold key posts, including in parliament and the cabinet, they can not serve as judges and have not been allowed to run for president.

After lull, U.S.-led air campaign in Syria intensifies
David Alexander, Reuters, Washington Sunday, 8 November 2015/The U.S.-led air campaign against ISIS militants in Syria, which ground to a near halt in late October, has intensified in recent days. Coalition forces carried out 56 strikes against ISIS in Syria in the eight days from Oct. 30 to Nov. 6 after going the previous eight days with only three strikes, according to U.S. military figures. The strikes have focused on the towns of Mar’a, al Hawl, al Hasakah and Dayr az Zawr.The United States and its allies carried out a dozen strikes in Syria on Saturday, the U.S. military said in a statement on Sunday. The jump in air and rocket strikes in Syria coincided with Washington’s shift in approach to the conflict after efforts to train Syrian rebels to fight ISIS collapsed. Russia also deployed warplanes to Syria, adding pressure on Washington to take more effective action. The White House confirmed on Oct. 30 it would deploy dozens of special operations forces to Syria to advise and assist a coalition of rebels already on the ground. Defense Secretary Ash Carter also signaled his intent to intensify the air campaign. U.S.-backed forces in Syria have renewed their drive to capture the eastern town of al Hawl and to push ISIS away from the Turkish border along the Mar’a line north of Aleppo. The U.S. air campaign has been criticized by Republican lawmakers and others who say the intensity of the strikes is insufficient to reverse the advances of ISIS fighters, who overran large parts of Iraq and Syria last year. The air campaign reached a peak in July, when warplanes carried out 887 air strikes - 518 in Iraq and 369 in Syria, U.S. military data analyzed by Reuters shows. Since then, strikes in Iraq have remained in the range of 500 per month, while in Syria they dropped steadily each month, reaching a low of 117 in October, daily strike tallies show. U.S. military officials downplay the significance of the strike data, saying they represent the ebb and flow of battle and are affected by things like bad weather, which may prompt changes in targeting on a particular day. “We are not focused on numbers of strikes. We are focused on effects of our strikes,” Army Colonel Steve Warren, a U.S. military spokesman in Baghdad, said in an email. Coalition strikes since July in Syria have been concentrated around al Hasakah, a town near the northeastern frontier on the route to Sinjar, Tal Afar and Mosul in northwestern Iraq. About 37 percent of U.S. air strikes in Syria focused on that town. More than 11 percent of U.S. air strikes have hit the area around Raqqah, the ISIS’s Syria headquarters, and more than 10 percent have targeted the militants around Kobani, a city near the Turkish border ISIS tried to capture. U.S. bombing in Iraq has targeted Ramadi, Sinjar and Mosul. Eighteen percent of U.S. strikes hit ISIS militants near Ramadi, while 14 percent hit the group in the Sinjar area and 13 percent targeted it near Mosul.

Netanyahu stresses defence aid ahead of Obama meeting
By AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 8 November 2015/Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday he planned to discuss defence aid with President Barack Obama as he left for his first meeting with the U.S. leader in over a year. Netanyahu is due to meet Obama on Monday in Washington as the two leaders seek to set aside their testy personal relationship and turn the page after a sharp disagreement over the July nuclear deal between Iran and world powers. The talks are to focus on U.S. defence aid to Israel in a bid to assuage the Jewish state over the security challenges it says it now faces due to the nuclear accord, which Netanyahu firmly opposed. Israel already receives more than $3 billion per year in U.S. military aid in addition to other spending, such as on the Iron Dome missile defence system. The 10-year arrangement expires in 2017, and there have been reports that Netanyahu will seek a significant increase. “I believe that this meeting is important in order to clarify the continuation of American aid to Israel in the coming decade,” Netanyahu said at the start of a cabinet meeting on Sunday. “It will be another step toward realizing an understanding in this direction.”The new 10-year defence deal will not be finalized during the Obama-Netanyahu summit, and it would come into effect only after the current accord expires, U.S. officials have said. The Israeli premier argues that the nuclear accord will not block regional rival Iran’s path to atomic weapons. He also contends that the lifting of sanctions will allow Tehran to further back proxy militants in the region, including Israeli enemies Hamas and Hezbollah. Beyond defence talks, Netanyahu said he planned to discuss with Obama the conflict in Syria and “possible progress with the Palestinians, or at least stabilizing the situation with them.” A wave of violence since the start of October, including gun, knife and car-ramming attacks by Palestinians, have raised fears over the potential for a new Palestinian uprising. Obama has previously criticized Netanyahu for sending mixed signals over his commitment to a two-state solution and may press him on the issue. However, American officials say the president has lost any hope of a major peace accord being reached between the Israelis and Palestinians before he leaves office in January 2017. Netanyahu is expected back in Israel on Thursday.

UK seeks extra security abroad in wake of Russian jet crash
AFP, London Sunday, 8 November 2015/Britain’s foreign minister on Sunday said the government would push for higher security at foreign airports in risky areas even if it meant extra delays for passengers.
Britain suspended flights to Sharm el-Sheikh after saying it feared a bomb may have brought down a Russian jet shortly after it took off from the Red Sea resort last week, killing 224 people, and that security at the airport was lax. “What we’ve got to do is ensure that... airport security reflects local conditions,” Philip Hammond told the BBC on Sunday. “Where there’s a local higher threat, that will mean higher levels of security are required and that may mean additional costs and may mean additional delays at airports.”Efforts will be focused on areas where ISIS militants are known to operate if news reports are confirmed that they were behind the crash. “If this turns out to be a device planted by an ISIS operative, or by somebody inspired by ISIS, then clearly we will have to look again at the level of security we expect to see in airports in areas where ISIS is active,” Hammond said using another acronym for ISIS. The decision to suspend flights with immediate effect came after a team of British security experts made an initial security assessment in Sharm el-Sheikh, but the government has yet to identify ISIS as the perpetrators. Around 3,300 of the estimated Britons in Sharm el-Sheikh have been brought home on jets laid on by airlines in conjunction with the government, and a further 1,700 are expected home Sunday, according to Hammond. “The ambassador is telling me that the mood in Sharm is generally calm, people understand what is going on,” he told the BBC. “Many people will want to stay and complete their holiday,” he added. “At most people will experience a delay of two or three days.”

Iran plans to be ‘actively present’ in next Syria peace talks
Reuters, Dubai Sunday, 8 November 2015/Iran will attend the next round of Syria peace talks, a top advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Saturday, a week after Tehran threatened to withdraw from the process. World and regional powers including Iran met in Vienna on Oct. 30 to discuss a political solution to Syria’s civil war. Days later, Iran threatened to pull out of the next round of talks, blaming the "negative role" played by regional rival Saudi Arabia. “Iran will be actively present in (Syria peace) talks, while announcing its standards and preserving its red lines,” Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s top foreign policy advisor, was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency. “We will support our ally, Syria, not only in defence field, but also in political arena,” he added. Iran supports Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad against rebels backed by regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Diplomats have said the next round of international talks is likely to begin later this week. The Oct. 30 talks, which failed to reach a solution, marked the first time Iran and Saudi Arabia were at the same table to discuss Syria’s civil war, which has killed more than 250,000 people and displaced millions over nearly five years. The war has evolved into a wider proxy struggle between global powers, as Russia has joined the Assad-Iran axis and Western powers have stepped up support for Gulf Arab-backed rebels. Iran has said it could support Assad’s departure only if he is ousted in elections held after a ceasefire. Western and Gulf Arab powers say the Syrian strongman, whose crackdown on initially peaceful protests in 2011 triggered the war, must leave power as part of any credible peace process.

Iran-Europe relations ‘enter determining stage’
AFP, Tehran Sunday, 8 November 2015/Relations between Iran and the European Union are at a “determining stage” after Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers in July, European Parliament chief Martin Schulz said on Saturday. “We are now at the implementation stage of this agreement and at the end of this stage a door can be opened for economic cooperation and positive economic development,” he said at a news conference in Tehran with Iranian counterpart Ali Larijani. The European Union last month announced it had adopted the legal framework to lift its sanctions against Iran, once Tehran has curbed its nuclear activities. The EU announcement came shortly after President Barack Obama ordered the U.S. government to also take steps towards lifting sanctions on Iran. The EU and U.S. sanctions have proved very damaging, locking up billions in Iranian assets overseas and starving the oil-dependent economy of crucially needed technology and investment. Schulz was in Tehran on a one-day visit at the invitation of the Iranian parliament, the first by a head of the European Parliament. He also said Iran played a “key role” in regional stability, especially in Syria. He made the same point after meeting President Hassan Rouhani. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is an element of stability in a region full of instability,” Schulz said. “As a result of terrorism in Syria we are facing an influx of refugees in Europe. Right now our main and common goal is fighting Daesh,” the ISIS, he said. Iran joined talks with world powers on Syria for the first time in Vienna last month in a drive to end the more than four-year conflict. The Syrian regime and the opposition were not represented. Both Iran and Russia support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, while Western powers have pushed for the leader to step down. But on Saturday, Larijani said “reducing critical problems in the region to a person is a strategic mistake”. Russia in late September launched air strikes in Syria. Moscow says its strikes target ISIS militants and other “terrorists”, but the opposition accuses Russia of focusing on moderate and militant rebels. “A plan should be devised to create a region free of criminal terrorist movements,” Larijani said.

Tunisians rally to support Palestine ‘uprising’
By AFP, Tunis Sunday, 8 November 2015/Hundreds of Tunisians, including political figures, gathered in the capital Saturday for a demonstration called by the Islamist party Ennahda in support of the Palestinian "uprising" against Israel. The demonstrators assembled under close police surveillance in the city's main thoroughfare, Bourguiba Avenue, waving Tunisian and Palestinian flags as well as that of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas. Ennahda MP Sahbi Atig said: "This is essentially a symbolic action to show our support for the Palestinian cause and uprising."Houcine Jaziri, who had been in an Ennahda-led coalition government, said: "We are all united behind the Palestinian cause."Violence in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories since October 1 has killed 73 Palestinians -- around half of them alleged attackers -- an Arab-Israeli and nine Israelis. Attacks and violent protests throughout October raised fears and, for some, hope of a new Palestinian uprising, but violence had waned in recent days.

10 dead in Syria regime raids on ISIS-held town
By AFP, Beirut Sunday, 8 November 2015/At least 10 people were killed on Sunday in Syrian government air strikes on a town held by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) group in northern Aleppo province, a monitor said. The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a woman and child were among the dead in the strikes on Al-Bab, which has been held by ISIS since early 2014. Elsewhere in the province, the monitor said at least three people, including a child, had been killed in rebel fire on the government-held area of Aleppo city. Syria’s state news agency SANA put the toll at four dead. Aleppo city was once Syria’s economic hub, but it has been ravaged by war and divided between government control in the west and rebel control in the east since shortly after fighting there began in mid-2012. Government planes regularly bombard the eastern part of the city and rebels fire rockets into the west.
South of the city, meanwhile, government troops backed by Russian air strikes seized several villages from rebel forces, SANA said. The state news agency said the army had taken three villages south of Aleppo, with the Observatory confirming the advance. Syrian government troops have launched several ground offensives against rebel forces since Russia began a bombing campaign on September 30. So far, the offensives have registered only modest advances, though the Russian strikes have reportedly boosted morale among government troops.

Knife, car attacks in West Bank wound 5, attackers shot
AFP, Jerusalem Sunday, 8 November 2015/A car-ramming attack and a stabbing wounded five Israelis in the West Bank on Sunday while the two alleged assailants were shot, authorities said, the latest in a weeks-long wave of violence. In the first incident, a Palestinian rammed a group of Israelis with a car at a junction, wounding four of them, and was then killed by security forces, police said.The alleged attacker was said to have driven the car into an area south of Nablus where Israelis typically gather to hitch rides. A checkpoint is located nearby and Israeli border police opened fire. Israeli public radio described two of the wounded as in a serious condition.Later, a Palestinian woman stabbed a security guard near a West Bank settlement and was shot by the victim, the Israeli police and army said. The incident occurred at the entrance to the Beitar Illit settlement south of Jerusalem. The fate of the woman was not immediately clear. A wave of knife, gun and car attacks have hit Israel and the Palestinian territories since the start of October. The violence has left 73 Palestinians dead, around half of them alleged attackers. Nine Israelis have also been killed as well as one Arab Israeli. Violent protests have also erupted in annexed east Jerusalem, the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Unrest has waned somewhat in recent days, though sporadic attacks have continued. The latest violence came as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu prepared to leave for Washington on Sunday to meet U.S. President Barack Obama. The meeting will be centred on U.S. defence aid to Israel following the July nuclear accord between major powers and Iran, but the recent Israeli-Palestinian violence is also expected to be discussed. At the start of a cabinet meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu said he will speak with Obama about “possible progress with the Palestinians, or at least stabilising the situation with them, and, of course, strengthening the security of the state of Israel”.

Iran plans to be ‘actively present’ in next Syria peace talks
Reuters, Dubai Sunday, 8 November 2015/Iran will attend the next round of Syria peace talks, a top advisor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was quoted as saying on Saturday, a week after Tehran threatened to withdraw from the process. World and regional powers including Iran met in Vienna on Oct. 30 to discuss a political solution to Syria’s civil war. Days later, Iran threatened to pull out of the next round of talks, blaming the "negative role" played by regional rival Saudi Arabia. “Iran will be actively present in (Syria peace) talks, while announcing its standards and preserving its red lines,” Ali Akbar Velayati, Khamenei’s top foreign policy advisor, was quoted as saying by the Tasnim news agency. “We will support our ally, Syria, not only in defence field, but also in political arena,” he added. Iran supports Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad against rebels backed by regional powers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Diplomats have said the next round of international talks is likely to begin later this week. The Oct. 30 talks, which failed to reach a solution, marked the first time Iran and Saudi Arabia were at the same table to discuss Syria’s civil war, which has killed more than 250,000 people and displaced millions over nearly five years. The war has evolved into a wider proxy struggle between global powers, as Russia has joined the Assad-Iran axis and Western powers have stepped up support for Gulf Arab-backed rebels. Iran has said it could support Assad’s departure only if he is ousted in elections held after a ceasefire. Western and Gulf Arab powers say the Syrian strongman, whose crackdown on initially peaceful protests in 2011 triggered the war, must leave power as part of any credible peace process.

Iran-Europe relations ‘enter determining stage’
AFP, Tehran Sunday, 8 November 2015/Relations between Iran and the European Union are at a “determining stage” after Tehran’s landmark nuclear deal with world powers in July, European Parliament chief Martin Schulz said on Saturday. “We are now at the implementation stage of this agreement and at the end of this stage a door can be opened for economic cooperation and positive economic development,” he said at a news conference in Tehran with Iranian counterpart Ali Larijani. The European Union last month announced it had adopted the legal framework to lift its sanctions against Iran, once Tehran has curbed its nuclear activities. The EU announcement came shortly after President Barack Obama ordered the U.S. government to also take steps towards lifting sanctions on Iran. The EU and U.S. sanctions have proved very damaging, locking up billions in Iranian assets overseas and starving the oil-dependent economy of crucially needed technology and investment. Schulz was in Tehran on a one-day visit at the invitation of the Iranian parliament, the first by a head of the European Parliament. He also said Iran played a “key role” in regional stability, especially in Syria. He made the same point after meeting President Hassan Rouhani. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is an element of stability in a region full of instability,” Schulz said. “As a result of terrorism in Syria we are facing an influx of refugees in Europe. Right now our main and common goal is fighting Daesh,” the ISIS, he said. Iran joined talks with world powers on Syria for the first time in Vienna last month in a drive to end the more than four-year conflict. The Syrian regime and the opposition were not represented. Both Iran and Russia support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, while Western powers have pushed for the leader to step down. But on Saturday, Larijani said “reducing critical problems in the region to a person is a strategic mistake”. Russia in late September launched air strikes in Syria. Moscow says its strikes target ISIS militants and other “terrorists”, but the opposition accuses Russia of focusing on moderate and militant rebels. “A plan should be devised to create a region free of criminal terrorist movements,” Larijani said.

Iran-Backed Rebels Retake Positions in South Yemen
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 08/15/Yemen's Iran-backed rebels have regained several positions lost in recent months across the country's south, in a fresh push towards the Gulf-backed government's temporary headquarters in port city Aden, military sources said Sunday.
In Lahj province, which borders Aden, rebels are now positioned on a hill overlooking the strategic Al-Anad airbase, according to the sources. The base currently houses Sudanese forces from a Saudi-led coalition that has been battling rebels across Yemen since March. The rebel deployment near Al-Anad, which took place without fighting, "poses a real danger to pro-government and coalition forces," a military source told AFP. Backed by coalition strikes, supplies and troops, loyalist forces launched a major counter-offensive in July, pushing the rebels out of Aden and four other southern provinces -- Lahj, Daleh, Abyan, and Shabwa. Saturday fighting between the rebels and loyalist troops in Al-Madaribah in southwestern Yemen on the border between Lahj and Taez provinces meanwhile left casualties on both sides, according to pro-government sources. The rebels also retook the second city in Daleh province, Damt, after besieging it for hours and clashing with loyalist troops there, military sources said. These clashes left 16 people dead, including nine loyalists, the sources said, adding that many others were wounded. Forces fighting in support of President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi "were forced to withdraw from the city," one of the sources said. In the coastal city of Dhubab, near the Bab al-Mandab strait, the rebels seized a military base following clashes with pro-government troops that left six loyalists and 11 rebels dead, another military source said. Pro-government troops seized Dhubab early last month, giving them effective control of Bab al-Mandab, through which much of the world's maritime traffic passes. The Iran-backed Huthis, a Shiite minority from Yemen's north, seized control of capital Sanaa last year and then advanced south, forcing Hadi to flee to Saudi Arabia as they moved on to Aden. They have allied with forces loyal to ousted strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh. Ministers only returned to Aden in mid-September from six months in Saudi exile after fleeing with Hadi. Hadi designated Aden, where the humanitarian situation has drastically deteriorated during fighting, as the temporary capital. The rebel advance comes as the United Arab Emirates, which has lost 68 soldiers during coalition operations, welcomed the first of its troops returning from Yemen. While Emirati media reported that its soldiers had been replaced by a second deployment, Western sources this week indicated that only a limited number of UAE special forces will now remain in Yemen. An official of the Fourth Military Region in Aden told AFP that "the Huthis and their allies are seeking through their latest advances to return to Aden." He spoke of a shortage in arms and ammunition among pro-government fighters in the south. The United Nations says that around 5,000 people have been killed in Yemen's conflict since it escalated in March.

Jordanians mourn shock deaths of prominent sisters
Leila Alwan and Paul Crompton, Al Arabiya news Sunday, 8 November 2015/Jordanians this week mourned the passing of two prominent sisters who were found dead on Friday, as police in the capital Amman continued an investigation into their mysterious deaths. The bodies of Soraya Salti, 44, a mother of one, and Jumana, 37, were found together at the base of a building on Friday. An autopsy showed that the bodies had multiple fractures. Soraya had once led Injaz Al Arab, an education group that promotes entrepreneurship across the Arab world. Jumana was a UAE-based director at professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers.A janitor working nearby discovered their bodies after he heard a thud. According to an autopsy, the bodies had multiple fractures. According to family acquaintances, the sisters had been at a sports club in an Amman suburb on the same day. While some local media reported that the two sisters had committed suicide, others believe they had been murdered.“Their case is so far vague and mysterious,” Raed Omari, a Jordanian journalist and commentator told Al Arabiya News. Citing a contact who knew the family of the sisters, Omari added that the two had never showed symptoms of depression, casting doubt on reports of suicide. The Jordan Times reported that members of the Salti family could not be reached for comment. Marwan Muasher, a former deputy prime minister, wrote on Facebook that the two sisters were “an example of vitality, love of life and enthusiasm,” adding that he found it “difficult to believe that they have committed suicide.” A post on Injaz al-Arab’s Facebook said that the organization “is devastated” by Salti’s death. “She will be remembered as a dreamer that dared to create new opportunities for Arab youth across the region.” The sisters were uncomfortable with the attention their professional success had brought them, according to Rania Atalla, close friend of the pair who had also served as a former chief of staff for Queen Rania. “Both sisters were understated. They didn’t want the limelight,” she told Jordanian business magazine Venture.

As Green March turns 40, Moroccan king pledges more support to W. Saharans
Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Sunday, 8 November 2015/As Moroccans celebrated the 40th anniversary festivities of Morocco’s Green March, a peaceful protest which successfully brought an end to Spanish colonial presence in 1975, a large demonstration also took place outside a U.N. office in the Western Saharan city of Laayoune. Western Saharans, also known as Sahrawis, who took part in the protest criticized what they described as the lack of U.N. efforts and the international body’s failure to end the instability in the disputed territory. They asked for more progress and declared that they backed the Moroccan king’s proposal on autonomy as well as support for proposed investments in Western Sahara. King Mohammed VI, who was participating in the festivities passed through and the protesters cheered “Long live the King.”The Moroccan monarch was joined by tens of thousands of Moroccans who came out to celebrate the Green March and gave what was described as a “historic” speech on Friday night in Laayoune. Mohammed VI said Western Sahara was at the “dawn of a new era,” and further described the event as a “watershed moment in the process to complete the kingdom’s territorial integrity.” The king stressed that the Western Sahara would continue to benefit from “advanced regionalization” and the government’s “development model.”
Local investments
He added that proceeds from the region’s natural resources would be invested locally and he named several infrastructure projects that would be pushed ahead, including a desalination plant, transport links, energy projects and industrial parks. “I am keen to make sure we provide our fellow citizens in the southern provinces with all the necessary means to enable them to manage their own affairs and show they are capable of developing their region,” King Mohammed said. A U.N.-brokered ceasefire between Morocco and Western Saharan rebels - known as the Polisario Front - over the disputed area has been kept since 1991 but U.N. efforts to end the conflict were unsuccessful to date. Morocco has offered some autonomy but refuses to make any more concessions. “Those who are waiting for any other concession on Morocco’s part are deceiving themselves. Indeed, Morocco has given all there was to give,” the king said in Laayoune. The Polisario controls a small part of the desert interior of the Western Sahara but its main base is in Tindouf across the border in Algeria, where tens of thousands of Sahrawi refugees also live in desert camps. Observers say that the speech was important on several fronts. The king addressed Sahrawis on their own home ground and on their terms; and also stressed that he will not back away from the Moroccan claim of sovereignty over the territory. Prior to the anniversary, King Mohammad VI had issued a Royal Pardon which included 4,215 prisoners, including a number of convicted terrorists who have repented and denounced their extremist beliefs.(With AFP)

Vienna Failure: The Meaningless Race to Highjack the Political Solution in Syria
Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
4There are many strange stories in the Syrian drama. But what we heard lately from opposition sources stands apart as a particularly peculiar tale in the current diplomatic wrestling to shape a political solution to end the country’s civil war.
The story goes as follows: Oman is working on a proposal to form a transitional government made of representatives of the opposition and the regime. Omani officials discussed the idea with Syria’s President Bashar Al Assad, Qatari and Turkish diplomats and other players in a chain of contacts. Muscat proposed that the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) in Syria participate in the transitional government as representatives of the opposition while the regime of Assad will pick its representatives as well.
According to the report obtained from reliable sources in Syria’s armed opposition, the deal will entail dissolving the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), supposedly representing a good portion of the opposition. The transitional body will set a road plan ending with elections to determine the composition of a new government.
The Omani initiative was launched during a visit by Muscat’s minister of foreign affairs Yusuf Ben Alawi to Damascus on October 26 where he met Assad. The rare visit which was a surprise to all concerned parties, including other members of the GCC, ended with an agreement to launch the effort and see how far it could go.
Events seem to offer a response: Not very far. Taking a deeper look at the Omani proposal, one would find out almost immediately its considerable gaps.
Let us suppose that the Coalition was indeed dissolved. And let us suppose that Assad agrees to share power with the MBs, however far shot that supposition may appears. And let us also suppose that the regime, the Russians, the Turks and the Iranians all accepted the deal. The central question will remain: What is the real weight of the MB on the map of the armed opposition?
The political victory of Erdogan in the recent Turkish elections would have an impact on the north of Syria, but not to the extent of pushing all the armed groups working in that area to enter the bag of the proposed Omani deal. Qatar as well can move certain things in the north, yet putting the MBs ahead of all others is a very risky proposition.
Admittedly, there is a presence for the MB in the north. Yet, this presence is minimal compared to other Salafi groups. It will be difficult to convince other opposition groups that those who offered less will get more.
In addition to that, the other backers of the Syrian opposition were not even consulted before Oman starts its diplomatic endeavor. If those other backers do not approve of Muscat’s initiative, they will provide an alternative tools to the opposition groups in the north willing to continue the fight and to shoot down the Omani proposal. True that Erdogan’s enthusiasm to the Omani proposal, which means that the MB will share power in Damascus, may make other backers’ access to the north more complicated. Yet, that does not mean that there are no other ways.
The Omani track is only one of many. But all attempts to reach a compromise will have to deal with the thorny issue of Iranian presence in Syria. After all, this issue is one of the main reasons why many countries in the region are involved in the crisis. And for Iran’s presence, it seems that there is only one way to get them out: By force.
Reading the situation on the ground, it is almost inevitable to conclude that the Alawi community in Syria will be a collateral damage to the current confrontation between the Iranians and the Arabs in Syria. And the road of Vienna seems to be fading away in the intense fog of the crisis.
Saudi foreign minister said that there will be no deal without a clear time table for when Assad and the Iranians will leave Syria. Iran’s deputy foreign minister responded by threatening to pull out of the talks altogether. We will encounter many details in the story of Vienna, but the bottom line will always be that the energy to carry on the fight is still abundant and we do not see any immediate possibility to reach a deal.
The Russians made a mistake by interfering to support Assad and Iran for one simple reason: There is no way for either to win. It is a dead end for the Russians, the Iranians and Assad or that is how it appears from all the main facts of the conflict.
And the situation on the ground testifies to that in clear and short sentences. The Syrian army was not able to achieve any breakthrough even under the cover provided by Russia’s air raids. The Shia volunteers brought to Syria from Iraq, Iran and Central and South Asia are fighting in a terrain they do not know and in a hostile environment, attempts to divide the opposition backers as with Oman’s efforts will bear little effect on the flow of arms to different rebel groups, the Arabs seem to be determined to give Iran a lesson in Syria and the various international players do not have enough leverage to shape the picture differently.
ISIL made the position of the regime in Aleppo almost impossible to sustain for two weeks when it was able to cut the Khanaser Road which connects regime areas with its supporters in Aleppo. The regime forces regained control of the road later. Yet, that area will remain contested for some time. Supplying regime supporters in Aleppo with their needs is a more complex process now than before the Russians arrive to the war theatre.
Yet, the main battle that we may see very soon is the battle of Hama. The Army of Conquest declared few days ago that its first destination now is not the West Coast as the Russians are centered on the way going there, but Hama. The problem is that if the Army of Conquest advances to Hama, it will come face to face with ISIL. Hama will certainly be the next flaring point on the map of the Syrian war.
The Army of Conquest and other groups said clearly that they will not fight ISIL unless attacked by its fighters and never on its territories. While the Army of Conquest may advance rapidly towards Hama, there is another group, more moderate, called the Army of Victory (around 5000 fighters armed with TOW’s) is intent also on attacking Hama. The town and its environment may emerge as a main point of confrontation in the next few weeks. It was Qassem Suleimani, Iran’s Quds Brigades Commander, who personally supervised Hama defenses a couple of months ago.
In addition to Hama today, Dara will come tomorrow in response to Oman, Qatar and Turkey’s political plan. Certain backers of the opposition will want to abort the MB Omani track through opening the front of Dara. The regime as well wants to end any possibility for an opposition attack on Damascus from the South. The ingredients for a major battle in the South are gathering rapidly.
The sounds of Vienna drums seem to be completely lost in the noises of deployment, tanks and fighters getting ready for the battles of Hama, Aleppo and Dara. On the grounds in Syria no one seems to hear these drums anymore.
Why would anybody race for a political solution that is not ripe yet?

After Dunford Visit, US Recalibrates Iraq Strategy
Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
2Following his first fact-finding visit to Iraq, since taking over as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Oct. 1, Gen. Joseph Dunford has ordered some minor but critical changes in the US strategy against the Islamic State inside Iraq. After extensive consultations with US commanders in the field, the new Chairman came away with some valuable findings that will inform adjustments in the US military operations, and will also define some urgent diplomatic requirements.
The critical advantage that the Islamic State (ISIL) has been able to maintain inside Iraq is based on intelligence capabilities that run primarily through historic Baathist networks, present throughout the country. These Baathist networks extend into Syria as well. The Iraqi Army must rapidly develop improved intelligence capabilities, and US military advisors will be tasked on this priority, including identifying key ISIL leaders’ whereabouts. The fact that a growing number of Iraqis, including Shias, no longer trust their government in Baghdad is a serious complication for any improved intelligence operations.
Dunford also came away with the clear understanding that political reform is vital to any improved military campaign against ISIL. Prime Minister Abadi is still weak, and still is largely a captive of Iranian influence on his Dawa Party. The fact that former Prime Minister Maliki is still politically present underscores the depth of the Iran influence. In the Kurdish Region, the President is refusing to step down, despite the fact that his term has expired.
Political reforms must be complemented by a continuing reform of the Iraqi Armed Forces. This process of modernization and reform will, of necessity, be carried out on a local basis, given the political impediments to an overhaul of the entire Iraq military.
Dunford was told that the Iraq Shia militias, with their support from the Al Quds Brigade, have not been successful recently against ISIL forces. The Iran-backed Shia militias cannot defeat the Islamic State, and, in the recent period, they have lost virtually every battle they fought with ISIL. The Iraqi military and the Abadi government have been told that US air power will be made available to the Iraq Army, and not to support the Shia militias. But that support requires the boost in intelligence that is as yet an unfulfilled goal.
US commanders on the ground told Gen. Dunford that there are specific reforms that they are trying to implement in the Iraq Army, including command changes, better coordination with intelligence, and tighter control by qualified local commanders. The idea that local commanders of the Iraqi Army can be given orders by political officials back in Baghdad or by Iranian Generals, in the midst of combat operations, is a recipe for continued failure.
While none of these reforms have been successfully implemented on any substantial scale, US commanders emphasized that the Iraq Army needs to win some victories to advance the process of reform. Some targeted units of the Iraq Army are now ready to coordinate effectively with American advisors and US Air Force combat air support. Several new military operations are now expected to be launched by the Iraq Army within the immediate weeks ahead, in close coordination with the US forces in country.
In his meetings in Baghdad, Gen. Dunford succeeded in convincing both the Abadi government and top Iraq Army commanders that the US could not continue to provide support if the Russians are allowed in to conduct bombing operations. On Oct. 27, Gen. Dunford told Congress that he received firm assurances that the Russians will not be asked to join in the military campaign against the Islamic State.
Gen. Dunford is attempting to strike a balance between the needed “strategic patience” with the Iraq Army and the necessity to achieve some measure of near-term success in battle. With approximately 4,000 American troops now in Iraq, and a larger number of non-military personnel, the new Chairman is well-aware that he must operate within those manpower constraints for the time being. At the current rate of expansion, there could be 7,000 American troops in Iraq before the end of the Obama Administration, and that would be problematic.

Syria and Iraq Will Define the Future of the Middle East
Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
3The Iran nuclear deal was indeed a turning point in the balance of power in the Middle East. The impact of the deal was two folded. In reality, it gave Iran the opportunity to freeze its march towards a nuclear weapon for some 15 years, at best, in return for normalized international relations. It also freed it from the heavy chains of the sanctions, provided its coffers with substantial funds and injected its political establishment with self-confidence and confirmed that defiance and disrespect of international norms can indeed pay back generously.
And in perceptions, the nuclear deal magnified the prior impression that the US is pulling out of the region. The deal was indeed preceded by the decrease of US regional engagement. This context helped frame the Arab perception that the US took the side of Iran and that it abandoned its traditional allies in the region.
We saw some half-baked theories about the US working with Iran in the post nuclear deal Middle East. We also saw other theories exaggerating the impact of the deal on the positions of the moderates in Tehran and how it will help Rouhani. However, things went in a different direction.
Iran chose, after signing the deal, a more aggressive regional policy and a higher ceiling for its regional ambitions. Why were these erroneous assumptions of a cooperative Iran so far from apart from what really happened?
One of the reasons may have stemmed from a profoundly misconceived reading of Iran’s pre-deal intentions and the planned role of the nuclear program in its strategic trajectory in the Middle East.
Iran did not have any intentions, before or after the deal, neither to change its regional behavior nor to coordinate its policies with the US. Assuming that Iran’s intentions could be modified by the deal was totally out of context. The right assumption should have been that Iran’s aggressiveness will increase, rather than decrease, after the deal.
In any case, this situation resulted in a problem for both the US and the Arabs. The US, as a result of the prior strategy of reducing exposures to Middle East crisis and as a consequence of the nuclear deal managed to reduce its regional leverage to a worrying level. We wrote in “Middle East Briefing” just few months before signing the deal that the “US is Losing the Arabs and Not Winning the Iranians” (MEB-March 30 2015). We wanted to point out the dangerous levels of a reduced US influence in the region at that point.
However, the deal was signed anyway. In itself, the deal may not be objectionable as we said over and over again. Yet, it was precisely the link between signing the deal and its consequences on the one hand and Tehran’s regional strategy on the other that was worrying.
Therefore, the deal produced a context in which Iran was increasing its regional aggressiveness, the US was reducing its leverage and waiting for a gesture from Tehran expressing willingness to coordinate and the Arabs were feeling abandoned by their traditional ally. This configuration was pregnant with problems. Soon, a major problem on the ground appeared: Tehran’s invitation to President Vladimir Putin to go to Syria, then potentially to Iraq. It was clear that the regional agenda was being prepared for a leading role to be played by both Iran and Russia, in a moment of a voluntary self-imposed decision by the US to reduce its regional involvement.
The whole picture was ironic. While the US hoped that the nuclear deal will increase its regional leverage and reduce that of Russia, Mr. Putin, invited by Iran, was moving in the opposite direction.
In a way, the nuclear deal was a cross roads for the Middle East as viewed by the both the US and Russia. But now, the US is getting back gradually and cautiously to the Middle East. Reality was actively dismantling wishful thinking and idealist strategies.
With the picture of the post nuclear deal Middle East almost clear now, a platform is set for a stronger US-Arab coordination. This platform could be summarized in two words: containing Iran. The balance of power, understood in its concrete manifestation at this point in time in the Middle East, is playing out in Syria and Iraq. And in Syria and Iraq it should be set in order to spare the region future Iranian subversion.
For those who say that Iran is doing nothing “subversive” in the region, we would simply ask why did the Iranians infiltrate Iraq after the US invasion and killed both Americans and Iraqis to manipulate the political theatre in their favor? We will ask about terrorist rings arrested in Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia? We will ask about ships carrying arms to the Houthis in Yemen spotted and stopped off the Yemeni shores. We will also ask about IRGC in Lebanon, Syria and Bahrain. This is not tourism. It is subversion and terrorism.
The regional balance of power is now defined by the battle for Syria. Syria is where Russia, the US, Iran, the Arabs and Turkey are “testing” their abilities to shape the regional dynamics. The situation some 10-15 years ago was different. Then, it was only the US and the Arabs that were shaping these dynamics. The change was mainly due to three factors. The first is the earth quake of 2011 which seriously damaged the regional security order. The second is the progress Iran achieved in building both asymmetric warfare capabilities and military capabilities. And the third was the gradual reduction of the US regional role.
It is in Syria and Iraq that Iran should learn that its bridge to the region should be defined by trade, development and cooperation to build a joint regional future for all its countries instead of asymmetric warfare, subversion and intervention to bring about more disasters like those suffered by both Syria and Iraq.
And it is in Syria and Iraq that the Middle East balance of power will be recalibrated. For those who still believe a moderate Iran is possible, we simply say that they are on for more bad surprises. Iran is not being transformed into a less aggressive power. In the contrary, it is being transformed into a more aggressive power after the nuclear deal. And to help reshape Iran’s regional policies, it has to know that its subversion will bring only troubles to both its political establishment and people. Unfortunately, there is no other way to convince the IRGC to do anything differently. In fact, regional peace is in total opposition to the nature and “raison d’etre” of the Quds Brigades of Mr. Suleimani. If there would be regional peace, the most active component of the IRGC would be no more. What exactly could motivate the IRGC to seek stability and peace in the region? In fact, its Commanders main worry after signing the nuclear deal was that Tehran may be pushed to a more constructive regional role.
The US and the Arab countries have to rebuild their regional strategies and their working relations in order to teach the Iranians the one simple fact that they do not seem to understand: The Arab World is not Persian and attempts to make it Persian have a high price.
US – Arab working relations must not be reduced to arms deals. This is a prescription for more troubles. If Iran would not stop interfering and inviting other Putins to interfere, the regional crisis will be a black hole in the world order. Europe pre First World War should be avoided now in the Middle East. And to avoid it, Iran has to understand what it still does not. Clear measures should be publicly discussed to explain to the Iranians that their actions may cost them a high price. It is by talking loudly about this price that the world will discourage the Iranian people not to listen to the fanatics’ discourse. Both the international community and the Iranian people are putting the Middle East is a great risk if they believe the sugar coated statements of Tehran’s diplomats and some politicians. What counts is actions. And in actions, it says a lot to see Mr. Suleimani travelling in the region as if it has already been annexed to the illusive hallucination of the “Great Persian Empire” resurrected from ashes.

Washington’s New Dual Track Strategy for Syria and Iraq
Middle East Briefing/November 07/15
1It was no coincidence or diplomatic blunder that on the very day that Secretary of State John Kerry was sitting with representatives of 16 nations and international organizations to chart a diplomatic path forward for Syria, the White House was announcing that 50 US Special Forces will begin operations inside Syria. The Obama Administration has adopted a new dual track strategy for dealing with the Iraq and Syria wars. The new dual track strategy is a refinement of its previous plan (in fact, MEB reported weeks ago that US Special Forces were operating in Syria).
The first track is the new diplomatic initiative to draw in all of the regional and global “interested parties” to devise a solution to the Syria and Iraq conflict. The second track is to escalate the war against the Islamic State.
Under best-case conditions, the two tracks—diplomacy and intensified military operations against ISIL—will complement each other and, as hoped in Washington, may lead to a solution to the overall disaster in the next twelve months.
On Oct. 29, Kerry met separately with Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, who was only given permission to attend the talks in Vienna in the few days before the gathering, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. Kerry gave Zarif some specific proposals to be brought back to Tehran, to expand beyond the P5+1 deal on Iran’s nuclear program, towards cooperation on regional security issues. The proposal was, in effect, a test of whether Zarif’s participation indicates a genuine decision on the part of the Supreme Leader Khamenei to back the more reform-minded factions or not. Kerry reported back to President Obama that the Iranian participation and the statement afterwards by Syrian Foreign Minister Moallem maybe good signs that the embryonic process could move forward.
The Pentagon and the White House knew in advance that the simultaneous announcement of the deployment of the small initial contingent of Special Forces would cause a backlash. But under close consultation with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, President Obama concluded that it was necessary to put a small contingent of American “boots on the ground” in Syria to capitalize on some impressive advances made in recent weeks.
American commanders reported back to the JCS that Kurdish fighters are convinced that, with proper US backing, they can make a move on Raqqa and deliver a serious psychological blow to the Islamic State. Pentagon planners warned that such advances were possible—but only if there were experienced American advisors on the scene. Furthermore, they warned that a move by the Kurds alone into Arab Sunni land may produce negative results. The Special Forces sent in to Syria will coordinate the combat operations and will also assure deliveries of key military supplies and needed food, water and other basic necessities that will enable the US-backed forces to hold on to territory taken back from ISIL. In addition, given the ethnic tensions that have built over the past four-and-a-half years of fighting, the Special Forces will be on the scene as guarantors against ethnic cleansing on all sides.
From the outset, Pentagon planners made clear that the initial 50 Special Forces being deployed into Syria will be insufficient. The Administration is sensitive to accusations that the deployment of the initial contingent is proof of “mission creep” and proves that the US has entered a “slippery slope” of greater military involvement over time. The initial deployment of American trainers and advisors into Iraq was 300, and now there are 4,000 American troops in Iraq—not counting contractors.
While these arguments have some legitimacy, top American military commanders argue that, had President Obama followed the advice of then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and deployed a small force of American military advisors in 2011-2012, along with significant weapons, the situation on the ground today would have been radically different.
The results of Sunday’s elections in Turkey may give further impetus to the American dual track plan. President Erdogan’s AKP won a majority, but fell short of the kind of sweeping majority that would have enabled the broad constitutional changes that Erdogan coveted. Erdogan wanted to alter the constitution to give himself the sweeping powers.
Some American administration officials are hoping that Erdogan, to retain power and popular support, will go back to his earlier strategy of pursuing peace with the Kurds. The Vienna document signed by the 17 participants on Oct. 30, seeks to keep Syria as a unified state with full territorial integrity within the current borders. This means that there can be no separate and independent Kurdish state on Syrian soil.
Will that be enough to satisfy Erdogan? The answer to that critical question is unknown at this time. Kerry is betting that Erdogan will not wish to anger the US and the European Union, but Erdogan is unpredictable.
At least on paper, Kerry and Lavrov are both committed to moving towards a Geneva-3 conference to settle the Syria war, while pursuing the defeat of the Islamic State. Kerry knows that there were many self-serving participants in Vienna, and that months of patient diplomacy will be needed to make any headway. But he believes that a combination of American military participation in victories against ISIL in Syria, and patient diplomacy can ultimately pay off.

Turkey's Stockholm Syndrome
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone Institute/November 08/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6823/turkey-stockholm-syndrome
AKP supporters celebrated their victory on November 1 with chants of "Allahu Akbar" ["Allah is the greatest"], an Islamist slogan, indicating that for them the political race in Turkey is in fact a "religious war."
The Turkish "Sultan wannabe" runs an empire of fear. The November 1 vote will only help make him even more despotic.
A recent study found that only a quarter of Turks were NOT afraid of Erdogan. According to the research, even some of his own supporters are afraid of him.
"The rapidly diminishing choice of media outlets and restrictions on freedom of expression in general impacted the process and remain serious concerns." -- Ignacio Sanchez Amor, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe
The AKP's setback in last June's elections was because some nationalists disapproved of the AKP's peace process with the Kurdish minority. In July, the government scrapped the peace process and ordered the military relentlessly to bomb the strongholds of militant Kurds in northern Iraq.
Once again, after a brief pause, political Islam has won in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), earned nearly one out of every two votes in the renewed parliamentary elections on November 1. The AKP won more than 4.8 million new votes since the June 7 elections, in which it had lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since it came to power in 2002. The November 1 election gave the AKP a mandate to rule until 2019; by then Turkey's Islamists will have been in power uninterruptedly for 17 years. There are happy smiles on the faces of half the Turks.
The AKP's unexpected landslide victory can be explained in numbers. The party won by 9 percentage points more on Nov. 1 than on June 7, just five months before. How did this happen?
The nationalist party, MHP, shares more or less the same voter base with the AKP. Votes often go from one to the other. In the June election, some AKP votes shifted to the MHP, which won 16.3% of the national vote. This was because some nationalists disapproved of the AKP's peace process with the country's restive Kurdish minority. After a new spiral of violence started in July, the government scrapped the peace process and ordered the military relentlessly to bomb the strongholds of militant Kurds in northern Iraq. With the AKP boasting its newfound nationalist spirit, the MHP lost 4.1 percentage points on Nov. 1, all of which apparently went to the AKP.
The summer-long violence between the autonomy-seeking Kurdish fighters and the Turkish military, which has killed hundreds, apparently wore down Kurds with more loyalist sentiments to Turkey, and caused a shift of votes at the magnitude of 1.4 percentage points from a pro-Kurdish party to the AKP.
Two splinter Islamist and nationalist parties that won 2% of the vote on June 1 disappeared from the political scene, winning just a combined 0.5% on November 1. From them the AKP earned another 1.5 percentage points.
In the face of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's lavish, expensive palace, new private jets, extravagant spending of public funds; his assertive intervention in party politics (he must remain non-partisan, according to the Turkish constitution), and growing allegations of corruption and nepotism, some traditionally AKP voters abstained from voting on June 7. Typically, half of those who abstained in June were AKP voters. Apparently, they returned to the ballot box in November, earning the AKP another good 2 percentage points (the turnout rate was nearly 4 percentage points higher in November than in June).
All of this makes exactly 9 percentage points: the difference between what the Islamists got in June and November. That is worrying for everyone in the civilized (and shrinking) parts of Turkey -- and the world. AKP fans celebrated their victory on November 1 with chants of "Allahu Akbar" ["Allah is the greatest"], an Islamist slogan, indicating that for them the political race in Turkey is in fact a "religious war." The only non-Turkish flags at the celebrations were the Palestinian and Ottoman. It is worrying that the party that won half of the national vote celebrates with religious slogans and Palestinian and Ottoman flags.
True, even if there is not yet credible evidence of vote-rigging, the election campaign was totally unfair to the opposition. Erdogan and the AKP massively used a powerful pro-government media machine, including the state broadcaster and a semi-official news agency.
"While Turkish citizens could choose between genuine and strong political alternatives in this highly polarized election, the rapidly diminishing choice of media outlets and restrictions on freedom of expression in general impacted the process and remain serious concerns," said Ignacio Sanchez Amor, the special coordinator and leader of the short-term observer mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
The head of the delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, Andreas Gross, said: "Unfortunately, the campaign for these elections was characterized by unfairness and, to a serious degree, fear."
In fact, one could easily understand how democratic and fair the Turkish election campaign was from the words of Khaled Mashaal, head of Hamas's political bureau. He called both Erdogan and his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, to convey the Palestinian group's congratulations on Turkey's "democratic electoral environment."
Turkish President (then Prime Minister) Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, meeting with Hamas leaders Khaled Mashaal (center) and Ismail Haniyeh on June 18, 2013, in Ankara, Turkey. Mashaal, last week called Erdogan to convey Hamas's congratulations on Turkey's "democratic electoral environment." (Image source: Turkey Prime Minister's Press Office)
In a way, this is Turkey's Stockholm Syndrome. A recent study found that only a quarter of Turks were NOT afraid of President Erdogan. As many as 68.5% said they were afraid of the president. It is interesting to note that according to the findings of this research, even some of his own supporters are afraid of him: If Erdogan's supporters make up 50% of Turkey and those who say they are afraid of him stand at 68.5%, this means a good 18.5% of his own supporters are also afraid of him.
The Turkish "Sultan wannabe" runs an empire of fear. The November 1 vote will only help make him even more despotic.
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Germany: Migration Crisis Becomes Public Health Crisis
Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute/November 08/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6838/germany-migration-health-crisis
German hospitals are increasing security to protect doctors and nurses from violent attacks by migrants who are unhappy with the medical treatment they are receiving.
Critics are warning that German taxpayers will end up paying billions of euros to provide healthcare for a never-ending wave of asylum seekers. This is in addition to the billions of euros already being spent to provide newcomers with food, clothing and shelter.
In addition to the massive economic and social costs, as well as the burden of increased crime, including a rape epidemic, Germans are now facing the risk of being exposed to exotic diseases — and tuberculosis.
Roughly 5% of asylum seekers are carrying resistant germs. In real numbers, this works out to around 75,000 newcomers with highly infectious diseases. — Dr. Jan-Thorsten Gräsner, director of the Institute for Rescue and Emergency Medicine.
Twenty types of vaccines are now in short supply, and 16 others are no longer available at all. Because of production bottlenecks, some vaccines will not become available until 2017.
Muslim women refuse to be treated by male doctors, and many Muslim men refuse to be treated by females. — Max Kaplan, director of the Bavarian Medical Board.
German media outlets are downplaying the extent of the healthcare problem, apparently to avoid spreading fear or provoking anti-immigrant sentiments.
The influx of more than one million asylum seekers from Africa, Asia and the Middle East is placing unprecedented strain on Germany's healthcare system.
Hospitals, clinics and emergency rooms across Germany are being filled to capacity with migrants suffering maladies of all kinds, and medical personnel, including thousands of volunteers, are increasingly complaining of burnout.
Diseases are also reappearing that have not been seen in Germany for years. German public health officials are now on the lookout for Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever, diphtheria, Ebola, hepatitis, HIV/AIDS, malaria, measles, meningitis, mumps, polio, scabies, tetanus, tuberculosis, typhus and whooping cough. As refugee shelters fill to overflowing, doctors are also on high alert for mass outbreaks of influenza and Norovirus.
Compounding the challenge, tens of thousands of migrants arriving in Germany — particularly migrant children — have not been immunized, and German doctors are finding that needed vaccines are not readily available due to a lack of supply. Some German parents are panicking that there are not enough vaccines to immunize their own children.
Many migrants are also suffering from a host of traumas and mental illnesses. According to the Chamber of German Psychotherapists (Bundespsychotherapeutenkammer), at least half of all migrants arriving in Germany have psychological problems, including post-traumatic stress disorder and depression, and roughly 40% have contemplated suicide.
German hospitals are also being forced to hire a virtual army of interpreters so that doctors can communicate with asylum seekers, who speak dozens of languages, dialects and variants.
At the same time, German hospitals are increasing security to protect doctors and nurses from violent attacks by migrants who are unhappy with the medical treatment they are receiving.
Critics are warning that German taxpayers will end up paying billions of euros to provide healthcare for a never-ending wave of asylum seekers. This is in addition to the billions of euros already being spent to provide newcomers with food, clothing and shelter.
Many say the German government failed fully to consider the unforeseen consequences of opening the door to so many migrants. In addition to the massive economic and social costs, as well as the burden of increased crime, including a rape epidemic, Germans are now facing the risk of being exposed to exotic diseases.
German media outlets are downplaying the extent of the healthcare problem, apparently to avoid spreading fear or provoking anti-immigrant sentiments. But a growing number of German healthcare professionals are sounding the alarm.
In an interview with Die Welt, Dr. Michael Melter, the chief physician at the University Hospital Regensburg, said that migrants are arriving at his hospital with illnesses that are hardly ever seen in Germany anymore. "Some of the ailments I have not seen for 20 or 25 years," he said, "and many of my younger colleagues have actually never seen them."
Marc Schreiner, director of international relations for the German Hospital Federation (Deutschen Krankenhausgesellschaft), has echoed Melter's concerns:
"In the clinics, it is becoming increasingly common to see patients with diseases that were considered to have been eradicated in Germany, such as scabies. These diseases must be reliably diagnosed, which is a challenge."
Schreiner said that in cases of highly contagious diseases, including tuberculosis, patients must be quarantined, an expensive procedure, the costs of which are paid for by German taxpayers.
According to Schreiner, about 15% of the newly arriving migrants require immediate medical treatment. With 1.5 million asylum seekers expected to arrive in Germany in 2015, this means that 225,000 migrants will have an urgent need for medical attention.
Siegfried Hasenbein, director of the Bavarian Hospital Association (Bayerische Krankenhausgesellschaft), estimates that in 2015, between 25,000 and 30,000 migrants will be treated in Bavarian hospitals alone. In addition, this year between 75,000 and 90,000 migrants will receive ambulatory or outpatient care.
According to Hasenbein, these numbers appear insignificant when compared to the three million hospital visits that normally occur in Bavaria every year. The problem arises in that the migration crisis is straining the Bavarian healthcare system unevenly, with hospitals in migrant "hotspots" such as Deggendorf, Ingolstadt and Passau bearing the brunt of medical care.
Markus Beier, director of the Bavarian Association of Family Physicians (Bayerischer Hausärzteverband), says that doctors in areas with large concentrations of asylum seekers are being called upon all hours of the night and day, making it impossible for them to provide anyone with superior levels of care.
Max Kaplan, director of the Bavarian Medical Board (Bayerische Landesärztekammer), says that the challenges associated with medical treatment for migrants are exacerbated by language and cultural barriers, which are "tiresome, time consuming and sometimes impossible to overcome." Adding insult to injury, he says, many Muslim women refuse to be treated by male doctors, and many Muslim men refuse to be treated by females.
In an effort to prevent diseases from spreading, Kaplan has called on German public health officials to order medical exams for all asylum seekers at the initial point of entry into Germany, before they are sent to different parts of the country. "This is in the best interest of the refugees, and also of the native population," he said.
In a November 2 interview with Spiegel TV, Dr. Ralf Mütterlein, director of the Pulmonary Clinic (Klinik für Lungen- und Bronchialheilkunde) in Parsberg, estimated that between 8,000 and 10,000 asylum seekers in Germany have tuberculosis, but only a small fraction these are currently in quarantine.
Migrants who are taken to Mütterlein's clinic are held in quarantine for up to 18 months at a time to prevent the disease from spreading to the population at large. The costs to German taxpayers are astronomical: Between 10,000 and 12,000 euros per migrant per month. Over 18 months, the total cost often exceeds 200,000 euros per migrant.
A migrant from Africa is shown in a Spiegel TV news segment from this month, being treated in a special unit for the involuntary quarantine of tuberculosis patients, at Parsberg District Hospital #1, in Bavaria.
Meanwhile, a report by Die Welt describes efforts by German health officials to contain the spread of so-called resistant germs:
"Physicians are currently on high alert, because with the arrival of hundreds of thousands of refugees, infectious diseases could enter the country. This is not hysteria. It is simply a challenge our healthcare system has not faced for many decades.
"There is a danger that a refugee is 'colonized' — as doctors call it — with dangerous germs. Every person carries bacterial germs in and on the skin. For healthy people they are harmless. They become a problem when they spread among critically ill and immunocompromised patients in a clinic.
"The problem: In the refugees' countries of origin, resistant germs may spread more often than in Germany. So a refugee is immediately tested upon admission to a German clinic. Only when it is certain that there is no danger, it the patient moved to a shared room."
Dr. Jan-Thorsten Gräsner, director of the Institute for Rescue and Emergency Medicine (Institut für Rettungs- und Notfallmedizin), estimates that roughly 5% of asylum seekers are carrying resistant germs. In real numbers, this works out to around 75,000 newcomers with highly infectious diseases.
The Berlin-based Robert Koch Institute, a key governmental agency for the safeguarding of public health in Germany, has advised healthcare professionals, as well as those who are working as volunteers in refugee shelters, to update their immunizations.
But the Federal Institute for Vaccines and Biomedicines (Paul-Ehrlich-Institut), an agency of the Federal Ministry of Health, has warned that 20 types of vaccines are now in short supply, and 16 others are no longer available at all. Because of production bottlenecks, some vaccines will not become available until 2017.
Stefan Derix, director of the Chamber of Pharmacists North Rhine (Apothekerkammer Nordrhein), said the shortage of vaccines is due to the massive influx of asylum seekers. He said the Ministry of Health normally orders vaccine supplies one year in advance, and that no one in the government had anticipated that Germany would be taking in so many migrants this year.
Dr. Wolfram Hartmann, president of the Cologne-based Professional Association of Pediatricians (Berufsverband der Kinder- und Jugendärzte), has warned that many of the vaccines needed to immunize both native German children and migrant children for diphtheria, polio, tetanus and whooping cough are not available, neither in Germany nor in any other European country. He also said that basic vaccines against measles, mumps, rubella and varicella are in short supply.
In a statement, Hartmann wrote:
"We cannot provide native German children and refugees alike with the basic vaccines. The vaccine shortage, which is the responsibility of the pharmaceutical companies, must urgently be made a top priority of the Health Minister! Children have a right to vaccinations, especially for chronically ill children who need timely vaccinations against flu, especially if they are housed in communal accommodations.
"The federal government must now act urgently and enforce the right of children to vaccination. The vaccine supply is just as much of a national responsibility as is the supply of physicians."
Kordula Schulz-Asche, a politician with the Greens Party, warned against holding migrants responsible for the vaccine shortage. "The current tense vaccine situation must not be misused to stir up public opinion against refugees," she said.
In North Rhine-Westphalia, hospitals are requiring their personnel to attend courses on how to treat patients with exotic illnesses hardly ever seen in Germany. Hospital workers in Bielefeld and Siegburg are said to be groaning under the strain of having to examine up to 80 migrants a day for tuberculosis. "The workload has increased tremendously," a worker told Westdeutscher Rundfunk, a public broadcaster. Other hospitals in the state lack sufficient personnel and equipment, including the x-ray machines needed to examine patients with tuberculosis.
In Lower Saxony, public health officials, fearful of a mass outbreak of influenza, are struggling with the logistics of vaccinating tens of thousands of asylum seekers housed in refugee shelters across the state. With more than 1,000 new migrants arriving in Lower Saxony every day, initial medical exams of newcomers are backlogged by weeks, a period during which undetected diseases can spread.
In Berlin, police were forced to apologize for recommending that asylum seekers suffering from scabies, a highly contagious skin disease, be required to wear armbands to distinguish them from migrants who are healthy. The plan was for them to wear armbands with the capital letter 'K' for Krätze (German for scabies); their immediate family were to have worn armbands with the capital letter 'A' for Angehörigen (German for next of kin).
Meanwhile, reports of health-related scares, especially those involving tuberculosis, have become a daily occurrence in Germany.
In Krefeld, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia, a 27-year-old migrant was diagnosed with tuberculosis. He was being held in quarantine at a local pulmonary clinic. In Lünen, also in North Rhine-Westphalia, four migrants were diagnosed with tuberculosis.
In Nattheim, a town in Baden-Württemberg, asylum seekers at a refugee shelter underwent mass immunization after a child at the shelter fell ill with chickenpox. In Ellwangen, also in Baden-Württemberg, an asylum seeker diagnosed with tuberculosis escaped from a hospital. He remains at large.
In Gransee, a town in the eastern state of Brandenburg, a migrant was diagnosed with tuberculosis.
In Würzburg, more than 400 asylum seekers were mass immunized for chicken pox, diphtheria, measles, mumps, polio and tetanus. In Heidenheim, a town in Baden-Württemberg, public health officials are preparing for potential outbreaks of influenza and Norovirus at local refugee shelters this winter.
In Cologne, police cordoned off a refugee shelter housing more than 1,000 migrants in the Chorweiler district after a male refugee from Africa showed symptoms of Ebola. The man, who was coughing up blood for more than three days before anyone called a doctor, was rushed to a local hospital, where he was diagnosed with a gastrointestinal illness. Earlier, the same refugee shelter was the scene of an E. coli scare potentially affecting 800 migrants.
In Bochum, a 16-year-old migrant from Guinea showing symptoms of Ebola was placed in quarantine. In Saxony, public health officials are now testing all incoming asylum seekers for Ebola.
In Düsseldorf, a 30-year-old migrant from Algeria was diagnosed with tuberculosis and was being held in quarantine at a local hospital. Municipal health officials say that in 2014, there were 50 confirmed cases of tuberculosis in the city. In 2015, that number was surpassed in August, before migrants began arriving en masse in September and October.
In Tegernsee, a town in Bavaria, a 23-year-old migrant from Eritrea who was diagnosed with tuberculosis escaped from a refugee shelter. Local officials failed to inform the public about the incident for nearly one month, until they were confronted by a local newspaper, the Münchner Merkur. Wolfgang Rzehak, a local politician with the Greens Party, justified the media blackout: "We have to find a middle road between informing the public and not becoming a panic machine."
In Frankfurt, a 33-year-old migrant from Bulgaria who was diagnosed with tuberculosis escaped from a hospital and remains at large. Again, local officials kept quiet about the incident, until someone leaked information about it to the German newspaper, Bild.
In Berlin, a schoolteacher in the Steglitz-Zehlendorf district was diagnosed with tuberculosis; doctors say he was probably infected by one of his students. Also in Berlin, security guards at a refugee shelter in the Lichterfelde-Süd district locked nearly a dozen migrants in a bathroom after they were suspected of having tuberculosis. They were later transferred to a local hospital.
In Hamburg, public health officials quarantined a refugee shelter in the Jenfeld district after an outbreak of scabies. Also in Hamburg, a 17-year-old migrant from Sierra Leone was rushed to a local hospital and quarantined on suspicion that he had Ebola — just three days after arriving in Germany. Separately, at a refugee shelter in the Bahrenfeld district of Hamburg, firefighters wearing head-to-toe Ebola protection suits escorted migrants suspected of having Ebola to a local hospital.
In Bremen, after an asylum seeker was diagnosed with tuberculosis and doctors warned of the risk of contagion, all 200 migrants housed at refugee shelter on Steinsetzer Straße underwent chest x-rays to test for the disease.
In Munich, health officials are expecting more than 350 new cases of tuberculosis in 2015. The increase is being attributed to the large number of asylum seekers arriving in the city.
In Stuttgart, an average of 145 asylum seekers housed at the city's convention center seek medical attention every day. Common maladies include measles, chickenpox, flu infections, dysentery and scabies caused by mites.
In Rheingau-Taunus, a district in the state of Hesse, public health officials say they need more money and medical personnel to deal with the influx of migrants at 60 local refugee shelters. The health department expects to treat more than 1,500 newcomers this year, including a large number of children who lack proper immunization. The department has reported 60 cases of scabies and tuberculosis. According to Monika Merkert, a local health inspector: "The newly arriving asylum seekers bring diseases that occur only rarely in Germany."
**Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter. His first book, Global Fire, will be out in early 2016.

Is a new Syria chemical weapons massacre looming?
Brooklyn Middleton/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
Reports that ISIS used mustard gas in a recent attack underscores the looming threat of another major chemical weapon massacre in Syria. Since the U.S. and Russia-backed chemical weapons deal with the Syrian government – that was brokered in 2013 after the regime carried out the worst chemical weapon attack in the last 25 years – several deadly chlorine attacks have been documented. Grimly, the Assad regime carved out a way to continue using a chemical agent in a manner that does not trigger any response from the international community.
Meanwhile, multiple undeclared chemical weapon sites have been discovered, further discrediting the deeply flawed Russia-U.S. agreement. Since the Sarin massacre, the continued chlorine gas attacks have wreaked havoc on civilian lives while the continued existence of such agents represent a major security threat. With yet another actor now confirmed as using chemical weapons in Syria, the need to prioritize the halting of such attacks is further made clear.
On November 6, Reuters reported that officials with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed, “with the utmost confidence that at least two people were exposed to sulfur mustard" in Marea, located north of Aleppo, on August 21.
As the international community urgently attempts to assess how ISIS obtained the mustard agent, it should also demand the regime halt its own chemical weapon attacks
While the organization did not identify the party responsible for the attack, the same Reuters report stated that, “diplomatic sources said the chemical had been used in the clashes between ISIS and another rebel group taking place in the town at the time.” The report further indicated the attack “very likely” killed a baby. OPCW confirmation of the mustard gas attack followed Kurdish claims – and multiple photographs – indicating ISIS carried out several chemical weapons attacks against Peshmerga fighters in both Syria and Iraq. Further, international security assessments have seemingly triggered concern that ISIS indeed has the capability and will to carry out such attacks. Prior to the OPCW’s confirmation, reports noted that the Australian Defence Forces were stepping up efforts to protect troops from possible chemical weapon attacks by ISIS in Iraq. No such preparation is possible for civilians and the only way to prevent another massive attack in Syria is to identify and eliminate the chemical agents - a process that would be nearly impossible without far deeper international engagement.
Waiting game?
In May of last year, the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism published a paper exploring what it referred to as “The Strategic Significance of Syrian Regime’s Chemical Attacks.” The piece provides an overview of regime chlorine attacks from January-April 2014 (citing Eliot Higgins’ peerless work) and also makes the critical point that the Assad regime has set a new standard for chemical attacks in the Middle East.
The authors note, “In a way Assad gives legitimacy to non-state actors, including the rebel and terrorist groups active in the Syrian civil war, and beyond, to use the same methods.” The succinct point underscores the continued consequences of failing to adequately address the Assad regime’s usage of chemical weapons. As the international community urgently attempts to assess how ISIS obtained the mustard agent, it should also demand the regime halt its own chemical weapon attacks. The alternative option is waiting for one of the parties to carry out yet another mass-casualty chemical weapon attack in Syria.

Moscow needs an exit strategy for its Syrian quagmire
Raghida Dergham/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
Russia, on the surface, appears strong and triumphant in diplomatic meetings and its military adventures in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems confident about his ability to impose one fait accompli after the other on all sides. Putin is leading the war on ISIS and what he deems to be the Sunni terrorist threat to Russia, seeing as the Muslim minority in Russia is Sunni and the five Muslim republics surrounding Russia are also Sunni.
The Vienna talks on the Syrian crisis convened at Russia’s invitation, and secured some breakthroughs after inviting Iran to the international negotiations on the future of Syria with Saudi approval and participation for the first time. While Libya signified NATO and the GCC’s humiliation of Russia with blessing from the Arab League, Syria will be the place for Russia’s revenge and return to the Middle East, as well as the place where Russia will move to secure its position in reconfigured the regional and international order.
But Vladimir Putin’s bid entails a lot of adventurism. The Russian leader may feel overconfident as he obtains important concessions from the Gulf nations and Turkey, having had already guaranteed implicit U.S. consent to his Syrian policy. Putin might be reassured by what he has offered to Saudi Arabia, by refraining from obstructing and criticizing the Arab coalition fighting the war in Yemen. However, Putin will not be able to fight the war on ISIS and so-called Sunni terrorism by allying with the Iran-backed Shiite militias, including terrorist ones.
Indeed, by doing so, he is provoking the Sunni partners he needs to crush ISIS and other Sunni terrorist groups.
Secondly, Putin is making a great gamble by making Russia spearhead the fight on ISIS and similar groups, which are likely to retaliate against Russian interests. The Russian place that crashed over the Sinai after taking off from Sharm al-Sheikh could have been swift revenge from ISIS for what is taking place in Syria – if it is true that the radical group managed to plant explosives on the plane.
The achievements of the expanded Vienna meeting, which was attended by both Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif are significant. However, the Vienna process remains fragile because it has diluted the principles endorsed by the Geneva communique, including the establishment of a transitional governing body in Syria with full executive powers.
No breakthrough
Initially, Saudi-Iranian relations did not record a breakthrough in Vienna, save for the fact that the two foreign ministers sat at the same table for nearly nine hours and neither withdrew despite their sharp differences. This is in and of itself important given the accusations the two ministers exchanged and the extent of distrust between their two countries.
According to sources, the climate was very tense at the meeting. The gaps remain wide and the disputes do not only focus on Syria, but also involve conflicts in other Arab countries. The two sides have accused each other of sponsoring terrorism in the Middle East and beyond, and Zarif has even alluded to Saudi Arabia’s alleged role in the terrorist attacks of 9/11 on U.S. soil.
Moscow has achieved for the United States and the U.N. what they could never achieve despite numerous attempts, by convincing Tehran to sit at the negotiating table for the future of Syria. Riyadh agreed after initial reluctance, because Moscow has made a tradeoff between Syria and Yemen.
Russian sources said that in return for Saudi concessions on Syria, including agreeing to Iranian participation in the talks, Moscow has offered what may be described as the Chinese approach to tough conflicts: Non-interference, non-objection, non-obstruction and non-facilitation with regard to the Saudi-led Arab coalition’s actions in Yemen. According to sources in the Security Council, this development has been obvious in the Russian positions during the council’s meetings, where Moscow has replaced obstruction with non-interference.
Moscow did not promise to deliver Iranian cooperation in Yemen, because it is unable to rein in Iran in Yemen. However, Moscow is able to clarify that it does not support the Iranian role in Yemen, and can do a lot to facilitate the mission of the U.N. Envoy for Yemen Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, and it seems to have done exactly this. During the Manama summit, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said that while the Iranian role in Yemen did no change, the Russian role was positive as is the U.S. role.
Clearly, Saudi Arabia is prepared to implement the Yemen exit strategy through the U.N.-sponsored diplomatic process, welcomed by Moscow and Washington. Even Tehran is probably willing to trade the Yemeni card for the Syrian card, though this is still being sorted.
One reason is that Tehran is ultimately subject to the conditions of its agreement with the international community on the nuclear issue and the lifting of the sanctions imposed on Iran. Tehran is in a critical period, because rehabilitating it and lifting the sanctions is now contingent upon it proving its good faith in the region, and not just by fulfilling its nuclear obligations. So, while being present at the Syria negotiations has secured gains for Iran, it has also placed it under a microscope.
Iran achieved other things at Vienna. The Vienna statement issued after last week’s meeting made it clear that what Tehran practically won was the dilution of the Geneva communique. The Vienna statement did not mention any mechanism for transition of power from Bashar al-Assad to a transitional governing body with full executive powers.
The Vienna statement also assigned the top priority for fighting terrorism at the expense of the transitional process, which is the foundation of the Geneva communique. This was another achievement for Iranian and Russian positions.
Commitment to Assad
The difference between the Russian position and the Iranian position concerns the extent of commitment to Assad in power. Moscow is willing to relinquish Assad eventually, but Tehran is clinging to Assad because he is the center of gravity of its influence in Syria. Moscow is willing to abandon Assad as part of an equation to reconfigure the regime in Damascus, while Tehran considers him the linchpin of its interests in Syria.
Putin is making a great gamble by making Russia spearhead the fight on ISIS and similar groups, which are likely to retaliate against Russian interests.
The difference, practically speaking, is minute. Both powers believe the transfer of power from the regime and the president requires holding elections that are impossible in the current circumstances in Syria, unless they mean a referendum on keeping the regime and the president in power.
The main differences between the poles of the Vienna process involve the fate of Assad. Saudi Arabia insists on Assad eventually leaving, willingly or by force. Russia does not adhere to guarantees or a timetable, and is lobbying for elections, which are rejected by the other side because of their impossibility. However, Russia has hinted that it is not married to Assad but to the regime, so to speak, and therefore is working on shoring up the regime as an indispensable party to the war on terror.
The second difference, as Jubeir explained in Manama, is over the timing of the withdrawal of foreign forces, especially Iranians, from Syria. Russia declares that it does not have reservations in principle, but the issue will depend on the course of military operations and achievements against ISIS and other groups Russia designates as terrorist groups. For its part, Iran does not publicly acknowledge that it has military presence in Syria, as it is fully aware this would be in violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. Iran understands the U.S. can play that important card as those resolutions were adopted under Chapter VII of the U.N. Charter.
The third difference is over the definition of terrorist groups and opposition groups in Syria. Russia has lists containing both. The United States has avoided this game. The Syrian opposition is victim of both and victim of itself at once. The Gulf nations speak of terrorist groups run by Tehran, meanwhile, and call for them to be included on the lists of terrorist groups operating in Syria.
Now, one item that has imposed itself on the agenda of the next round of the Vienna talks, and on Russian strategy in Syria, will be the alleged bombing of the Russian passenger jet over Sinai. This will impose on Russia a thorough rethink of the consequences of spearheading the war on “Sunni terrorism” worldwide, and not just in the Middle East, including the Russian homeland and its Muslim-majority neighbors among the former Soviet republics.
There are indications breakthroughs are possible if Moscow plays its cards well in Syria. It is correct to say that Moscow has stirred the stagnant waters by intervening in Syria, imposed fighting terrorism as a priority, and mobilized support for its initiatives on Syria. Russia also obtained serious concessions, and has been shrewd in making the tradeoff between Syria and Yemen.
However, Moscow must think beyond its tactical achievements. It has installed itself as the instrument and leader of the war on Sunni terrorism by allying with anyone offering their help. Russia needs a strategy to avoid becoming implicated in quagmires.

Iraq, Syria and Libya no longer exist
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
In the West, we have a pretty good idea of what countries are. They are areas of land where nations or peoples live, and roughly correspond to states which cover the world map. And all of the world except Antarctica is covered by some state or another, because humans live permanently everywhere except Antarctica. The world map is thus made of countries and states.
Except that it is not. Neither states nor countries are natural things that simply exist wherever people exist. In fact, having an entire world covered in states and countries is a very recent phenomenon indeed. It has only become the norm with the completion of the West’s colonial designs on the rest of the world by the late 19th Century. Up to that point, the majority of inner Africa was stateless tribal lands. The same was true of the large part of the North American continent and the Amazon. As indeed it was of much of Siberia and Central Asia.
We associate stateless territories with wilderness and backwardness. And this is a very strong instinct going back to the empires of Antiquity. The lands north of the Rhine, beyond the Roman Empire were the stateless lands of the Barbarians. Just like the lands north of the Danube were the lands of the barbarians for the Greeks. Or the lands north of the Oxus river or the Caucasus Mountains for the Persians.
The artificial straight lines in the sand we drew when we “granted independence” to these states serve only to perpetuate these civil wars
For most of the time for which states have existed, the majority of the world was in fact not covered by states. And that is true for countries as well, even if for different reasons. For most of history, for as long as we have recorded history, most of the planet has not in fact been covered by patches of land which could be said to be properly inhabited in their majority by an overwhelmingly dominant nation or ethnic people. Quite the contrary: except in isolated states which lock their borders as a matter of policy and where such policy has been in effect for long enough that the population has coagulated into a single national identity, most areas of the world are in fact highly mixed and diverse. Most states are not national in character. They are multi-ethnic or imperial. And have been for most of history. The nation-state as a concept has only been invented during WW1, hoped to be a remedy to European countries chronic tendency to go to war with each other, after the Great War had ended.
Divided state-political loyalties
It should not come as a surprise then that certain places we think of as countries at the moment no longer exist. In the media we refer to places like Syria, Iraq and Libya as “failed states”. They are no such thing. They are no states at all. Any more than they are countries. In Iraq there is one, barely functional state: the Shi’a dominated state of Baghdad and Basra regions. Then then there is the feudal military force of ISIS who is attempting to establish a different state in the Sunni north-west. And then there is Kurdish country in the north which has its own proto-state structure in this region, but also in Kurdish dominated areas in Syria, Turkey and Iran. Upon the founding of the Kingdom or Iraq, King Faisal I noted that “there is no Iraqi people inside Iraq. There are only diverse groups with no national sentiments.” Iraq was never a country. And it is no longer a state either.
The exact same can be said of Syria and Libya. In both cases we at least had states. But these places were never countries. There are no such thing as “the Syrian people”. Even less, the “Libyan people”. Syria is a confessionally split, ethnically diverse mosaic of humanity and has been for its entire recorded history, due to its huge importance as a commercial and theological center. And Libya has always been a deeply tribal society with no notion of national identity. Once the states in charge of these territories have failed to uphold their claim to the monopoly of force in the lands they claimed, there was nothing to keep these places together as “countries”.
Nor should we try to. The people that live in these lands have no one, shared country, and have divided state-political loyalties. What they are fighting for, in all cases, is to prevent a rival people, a rival tribe, a rival religious group, to assert dominion over them through the political and military apparatuses of their respective states. And for as long as they do this they will continue to be in a perpetual civil war, whether this civil war is a hot war, or, as it has tended to be for most of their history since these countries were artificially invented at the end of the colonial era, a cold war. The artificial straight lines in the sand we drew when we “granted independence” to these states serve only to perpetuate these civil wars. We cannot fight to enforce these borders. They must be allowed to change, and new countries made up of people who share some kind of spirit of community with one another must be allowed to emerge.

Why don’t many Saudi graduates have skills for employment?
Khaled Almaeena/Al Arabiya/November 08/15
A knowledge-based society is pivotal for the sustainable growth of our economy. Dr. Asmaa Al-Fadala Director of Research at the Qatar-based World Innovation Summit for Education stressed the role that education plays in economic development.
According to Dr. Al-Fadala effective science, technology, engineering and mathematics education are vital for the future sustainable economic and social growth of the GCC countries.
“Successful diversification depends on education systems that equip students with the transferable skills and all attributes to become the rounded, globally competitive citizens needed to attain the new goal of thriving knowledge economies,” she said. This raises questions about our Saudi schools.
• Are we preparing graduates to cater to the needs of companies that require the solid, highly skilled, globally aware, knowledge-based workforce needed in this highly competitive world of business and industry?
• Have our schools instilled in our graduates the work ethics and the moral character needed in the business world?
• Has our focus on religious studies, history, literature, geography and other not very useful subjects lessened the impact of our education system?
We have to answer all these questions and ask ourselves whether we want to have a nation of scientists or clerks!
At the bottom of the table
According to statistics from the World Economic Forum, the GCC countries collectively have one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the world. To my mind the reasons for this include the apathy of young people and their lack of work ethics in addition to their inability to master the job descriptions required by the private sector.
A thorough change is needed, but despite a huge budget, changes in the education field move at a snail’s pace
How then can we guarantee our nation’s future prosperity without our students having the relevant skills needed for employment? But let us make it clear that we cannot blame the students. For years we have been discussing the issue of untrained and unmotivated teachers, ill-equipped schools, a lack of educational clarity and a system that does not encourage excellence.
A thorough change is needed, but despite a huge budget, changes in the education field move at a snail’s pace. Therefore, it is important that our overhaul of the educational system be done with the cooperation and understanding of all stakeholders, educators, parents, students and global companies.
We should also listen seriously to the words of Gulf educationist Dr. Asmaa Al-Fadala’s when she says that “society at large must embrace a shift in outlook that understands the vital link between economic opportunities and improved educational systems and classroom practice.”
Until we do that, we will still be at the bottom of the table of educational standards.

No good news in the Mid East for Obama or Netanyahu when they meet Monday
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 8, 2015
After more than a year, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu meets President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday, Nov. 9, with the deck heavily stacked against him – and not just because of the Islamic State, which is a universal bane, or Obama’s Iran policy - or even the evaporation of the peace process with the Palestinians. This time, Netanyahu is not getting a dressing-down over the disappearance of the two-state solution, because even the US president has decided to shelve it for the remainder of his presidency which ends in January 2017.
This is not because the Netanyahu government has missed any chances for talks with the Palestinians, as the Israeli opposition loudly claims, but because it is unrealistic.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Abu Mazen (Mahmud Abbas), who lost all credibility on the Palestinian street long ago, has been quietly but continuously encouraging the continuous Palestinian wave of terror by knives, guns and cars.
The Israeli prime minister had his most promising card snatched from him just ten days before he traveled to Washington. He had intended presenting the US president with the quiet alliance he had formed with key moderate Arab governments as a viable alternative for the deadlocked Palestinian peace process, with the promise of a measure of stability for its members in the turbulence around them.
However, the linchpin Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi’s position was suddenly shaken up badly by the downing of the Russian passenger plane over Sinai on Oct. 31, presenting him with his most dangerous crisis since he took power in 2013.
In addition, the security situation in Syria, including along Israel’s northern border, especially the Golan, has gone from bad to worse - especially since Russia built up its military presence in Syria.
Israel has been forced to forego most of its red lines for defending its security as no longer relevant. Although no Israeli official says so openly, Israel’s military options in Syria have shrunk, and even the overflights by its air force flights for keeping threats at bay are seriously restricted..
Iran and Hizballah, under Russian air cover, have been slowly but surely making gains in their attempt to retake southern Syria from the rebels and hand it over to the army of Syrian President Assad.
Israel is still insisting that it will not allow the deployment of Iranian or Hizballah forces on the Syrian side of the Golan, but these statements are losing their impact. If the coalition of Russia, Iran, Syria and Hizballah defeats the rebels in southern Syria and moves in up to its border, Israel will find it extremely difficult to prevent this happening.
It would also mark the end of more than three years of investment and building of ties with various elements in southern Syria as part of a strategic decision to transform those groups into a buffer between Israel and Iran in the Golan area.
Netanyahu’s struggle against the nuclear deal with Iran was not just aimed at Washington’s recognition of Iran’s nuclear program, but ever more at Obama’s acknowledgement of Iran as America’s strategic partner and leading Middle East power. But in this respect, the US president is most likely chafing over the setbacks to his own cherished plan, as a result of four developments:
1. Iran has plunged more deeply than ever predicted into the Syrian conflict. For the first time since the 19th century, Iran has not only sent its military to fight beyond its borders, but it is coordinating its moves with Moscow, not Washington.
Even if Israel needed to turn to the US administration for a helping hand against Iran, it would have no address because Washington too has been displaced as a power with any say in the Syrian picture.
2. Although the alliance by Israel and moderate Arab countries was designed by Netanyahu to serve as a counterweight to the US-Iranian partnership, that alliance too is far from united on Syria: Egyptian President El-Sisi, for example, supports President Bashar Assad, and is in favor of keeping him in power in Damascus.
3. The Islamic State continues to go from strength to strength in Syria and the Sinai Peninsula which share borders with Israel as well as in Iraq.
4. Israel’s political, defense and intelligence elite have badly misread or missed altogether four major events in the region:
Assad’s persistent grip on power
The deep Russian and Iranian military intervention in Syria
The strengthening of ISIS
The eruption of a new, deadly Palestinian campaign of terror which strikes unexpectedly in every town, highway and street.
These errors are taking their toll on Israel’s security, wellbeing and prestige.
Even if Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Obama, like Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon and Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, do reach an agreement on Israel’s security needs for the coming years and US military assistance, such an agreement may not withstand the test of Middle East volatility. The rapidly changing conditions are for now all to the detriment of the US and Israel.