LCCC ENGLISH DAILY NEWS BULLETIN
November 06/15
Compiled & Prepared by: Elias Bejjani
http://www.eliasbejjaninews.com/newsbulletins05/english.november06.15.htm
Bible Quotation For Today/Father,
I desire that those also, whom you have given me, may be with me where I am, to
see my glory, which you have given me because you loved me before the foundation
of the world.
John 17/24-26:"Father, I desire that those also, whom you have given me, may be
with me where I am, to see my glory, which you have given me because you loved
me before the foundation of the world. ‘Righteous Father, the world does not
know you, but I know you; and these know that you have sent me.
I made your name known to them, and I will make it known, so that the love with
which you have loved me may be in them, and I in them.’"
Bible Quotation For Today/Just
as sin came into the world through one man, and death came through sin, and so
death spread to all because all have sinned sin was indeed in the world before
the law, but sin is not reckoned when there is no law
Letter to the Romans
05/12-16: "Just as sin came into the world through one man, and death came
through sin, and so death spread to all because all have sinned sin was indeed
in the world before the law, but sin is not reckoned when there is no law. Yet
death exercised dominion from Adam to Moses, even over those whose sins were not
like the transgression of Adam, who is a type of the one who was to come. But
the free gift is not like the trespass. For if the many died through the one
man’s trespass, much more surely have the grace of God and the free gift in the
grace of the one man, Jesus Christ, abounded for the many. And the free gift is
not like the effect of the one man’s sin. For the judgement following one
trespass brought condemnation, but the free gift following many trespasses
brings justification."
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin analysis & editorials from miscellaneous sources published on
November 05-06/15
Turkey: Where Ice Cream Can Be More Dangerous than Bombs/Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/November 05/15
"We Did What We Learned: Attacking Christians"/Raymond Ibrahim/Gatestone
Institute/November
05/15
What Would Rabin Do/David Makovsky/Politico/November 05/15
The Manama Dialogue: Searching for Unity in the Face of Chaos/James F.
Jeffrey/Washington Institute/November 05/15
An Arab boycott of Palestine too/Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
Iran’s hardliners to Obama: Our house, our rules/Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/November
05/15
There can be no peace without justice in Syria/Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November
05/15
Russia and Iran: Different goals behind calls for Syrian elections/Manuel
Almeida/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
Titles For
Latest LCCC Bulletin for Lebanese Related News published on
November 05-06/15
Lebanon: Car bombing kills 10 in Lebanon’s Arsal
Deadly blast rocks Lebanon’s Arsal
More than Four Killed in Blast Targeting Muslim Scholars in Arsal
Report: Salam Studying British Proposal to End Garbage Crisis
Report: March 8 Camp Preparing Expanded Meeting at Rabieh
Jumblat Deems as 'Suicide' Boycott of Legislative Session
Report: Aoun Awaiting Clarification on Legislative Session as LF Confirms its
Boycott
Report: Central Bank Governor Meets Salam to Highlight Financial Dangers Facing
Lebanon
Soldier Shot in Hermel, Fugitive Arrested at Baalbek Hospital
European contingent heads to Lebanon to meet Hezbollah leader
Two Swiftly Arrested after Robbing Bank in Jnah
Acting U.S. Ambassador Richard Jones Arrives in Beirut
Titles For Latest LCCC Bulletin For Miscellaneous Reports And
News published on
November 05-06/15
Mustard Gas Used in Syria Fighting in August
Egypt, Russia reject bomb claim over crashed plane
Report: US intel suggests ISIS bomb most likely caused Russian plane crash in
Egypt
Israel begins easing some Jerusalem security measures
PalestinianTerrorist killed after attempting to stab IDF soldier at Gush Etzion
Junction
‘Operational intifada leadership’ urged by Hamas
Netanyahu distances himself from comments by new adviser who suggested Obama
anti-Semitic
Israel frees former hunger strike Palestinian
Syria Druze group: Regime has declared war on us
Russia reportedly sends missile systems to Syria
Syrian regime ‘profits from disappearances’
Pentagon welcomes advance by ISIS-fighting allies in Syria
France to Deploy Aircraft Carrier in Anti-IS Fight in Syria, Iraq
Russia’s Syria force grows to 4,000: U.S. officials
Syria Rebels Seize Key Regime Town on Hama-Aleppo Road
U.S., allies target ISIS with fresh round of airstrikes
France to deploy aircraft carrier in anti-ISIS fight in Syria, Iraq
Free Syrian Army reps to meet Russian officials next week
Syria rebels seize regime town on Hama-Aleppo road
U.S., UK Say Bomb May Have Downed Russian Jet, Cairo and Moscow Dismiss Concerns
Israel Frees Former Hunger Strike Palestinian
Bahrain jails five for Iran-linked militancy, strips their citizenship
5 Bahrain Shiites Get Life in Jail for 'Spying for Iran'
Sisi: Egypt ‘ready to cooperate’ to ensure tourists’ security
Egypt Court Postpones Mubarak Murder Retrial
Egypt court postpones Mubarak’s final trial over 2011 killing of protesters
Anti-air missiles in ISIS hands also imperil Saudi, Jordanian and Israeli skies
DEBKAfile Special Report November 05/2015
Saudi U.N. envoy optimistic about Yemen talks
Kurd rebels end unilateral ceasefire in Turkey
Turkey says plans anti-ISIS offensive in near future
Links From Jihad
Watch Site for November 05-06/15
Morocco: Muslims hack tourists with knives at holiday destination
EU teaching migrants that “religion cannot supersede state laws”
Ohio: Four Muslims charged with supporting al-Qaeda
Muslim cleric: “Jihad against the Jews, fighting them” is “mandatory”
University of California Merced: Smiling Muslim stabs four people
Georgetown’s John Esposito Shills for Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood
Russian court reverses ruling recognizing parts of Qur’an as “extremist”
Hindu human rights activist Narain Kataria dies at 85
Islamic State jihadis distribute candy to celebrate downing of Russian jet
Iranians rally around “Down with US” campaign, burn US flags
U.S. officials believe the Islamic State planted bomb on Russian plane
Robert Spencer in FrontPage: Muhammad Had “British Values”?
Lebanon: Car bombing kills 10
in Lebanon’s Arsal
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Thursday, 5 November 2015/At least 10 were
killed after a car bombing targeted an office belonging to Syrian religious
scholars on Thursday in the northeastern town of Arsal in Lebanon near the
Syrian border, Al Arabiya News Channel reported. The bomb detonated in the Sabil
neighborhood of Arsal, in an area where militants linked to the conflict across
the border in Syria have carried out attacks in the past. Emergency services
were working to rescue people from the rubble, local media said, according to
Reuters news agency.
Syrian scholars
Meanwhile, security sources said the blast was likely to have targeted an
independent religious society made up of Syrian scholars. The head of the
society, Sheikh Othman Mansour, was among the dead, the sources said. The last
significant security incident in the area took place on Saturday, when Lebanon's
army fired at a vehicle carrying Islamist militants, killing three of them. A
separate attack by the Lebanese Shiite Muslim group Hezbollah in October killed
five ISIS fighters elsewhere in the north of the country. Arsal is a Sunni
Muslim enclave in the mainly Shiite Bekaa Valley that hosts many Syrian refugees
as well as rebel fighters in the surrounding countryside.
Deadly blast
rocks Lebanon’s Arsal
Now Lebanon/November 05/15/BEIRUT – A deadly explosion has targeted a meeting of
Muslim clerics in Arsal, leaving at least four people dead in the latest violent
incident to rock the border town. Lebanon’s state National News Agency reported
early Thursday afternoon that the blast went off during a gathering of sheikhs,
mostly Syrian, at the Qalamoun Scholars Committee headquarters in the town’s
commercial market. The religious committee—which focuses on Syrian refugee
issues in the border town—has served as a mediator seeking the release of
Lebanese servicemen captured last year in Arsal by the Al-Nusra Front. Qalamoun
Muslim Committee chief Sheikh Othman Mansour, a Syrian national, was critically
injured by the explosion, according to local media reports. The nature of the
blast remains unknown, with the NNA reporting that the blast ripped through a
motorcycle outside the Committee’s headquarters. Lebanon’s state news agency
earlier said that the remains of a purported suicide bomber had been taken to a
local hospital. The Lebanese Armed Forces have yet to issue an official
statement on the matter, while Military Court Judge Saqr Saqr tasked security
forces to conduct a preliminary investigation into the blast. Lebanon’s army had
rushed to the scene of the explosion to set up a security perimeter, while local
residents and rescue teams worked to remove the rubble and pull out bodies.
Arsal has borne the brunt of the spillover of Syria’s conflict into Lebanon,
with a number of violent attacks rocking the border town that hosts more
refugees than Lebanese nationals. In past years, Syrian helicopters conducted a
number of airstrikes on the outskirts of the town, which has also been hit by
rocket attacks. Militants have also conducted ambushes against the Lebanese army
in the town. The most serious violence to beset the town came in August 2014,
when Syrian Islamists conducted a cross-border rain, taking dozens of security
personnel during 5-days of fierce battles.
More than Four Killed in Blast Targeting Muslim Scholars in
Arsal
Naharnet/November 05/15/More than four people were killed on Thursday in a
bombing that targeted a meeting of the al-Qalamoun Muslim Scholars committee in
the northeastern border area of Arsal, reported the National News Agency. The
head of the committee, Syrian cleric Sheikh Othman Mansour, survived the blast
but was in a critical condition, LBCI television said. NNA identified four of
the dead as the clerics Omar al-Halabi, Alaa Bakkour, Ali Rashaq and Fawaz Orabi.
It said several bodies that are yet to be identified were also found on the
scene. Several other people were injured in the blast. According to LBCI, all of
the casualties are Syrian. NNA said the explosives used in the attack were
hidden in a motorcycle that was parked near the meeting's venue. But a security
source told AFP that the attack was carried out by a “suicide bomber.” The
source said that the bomber entered the meeting of Syrian clerics and "detonated
an explosive belt, leaving five people dead and six wounded until now." "The
explosion definitely targeted this meeting... where usually no less than 15
people are gathered," Arsal resident Abu Ibrahim told AFP by telephone. He said
the committee's deputy head, Omar al-Halabi, had been killed. "I just went to
the hospital, and there were people crying and screaming," he said. Military
Examining Magistrate Judge Saqr Saqr tasked the military police and army
intelligence to carry out the investigations, said Voice of Lebanon radio
(100.5). The Qalamoun Muslim scholars committee is concerned with aiding Syrian
refugees and catering to the needs of their encampments. It was also tasked with
carrying out mediations to release servicemen kidnapped in Arsal in 2014. The
servicemen were abducted by al-Qaida-affiliated al-Nusra Front and Islamic State
militants in the wake of clashes in the northeastern town in August 2014.
Report: Salam Studying British Proposal to End Garbage Crisis
Naharnet/November 05/15/Prime Minister Tammam Salam is studying a
number of proposals on exporting Lebanon's waste, reported the daily An Nahar on
Thursday. The options include transporting the waste to Syria “based on
proposals made by businessmen affiliated with political parties,” it added. The
cost of transporting the waste would range between 210 and 220 dollars per ton,
while the price is lower for Syria, it revealed. Ministerial sources meanwhile
told al-Akhbar newspaper that Salam is examining a proposal made by a British
company to settle the trash crisis. They deemed the suggestion as “serious”,
saying that it needs about two weeks to materialize. Technical aspects of this
proposal need about three months of preparations. Lebanon was plunged in a trash
disposal crisis after the closure of the Naameh landfill in July. The closure
resulted in the pile up of waste on the streets throughout the country as
politicians continue to fail to find a solution to the problem.
Report: March 8 Camp Preparing Expanded Meeting at Rabieh
Naharnet/November 05/15/Intense contacts are being held to prepare for an
expanded meeting of members of the March 8 alliance, reported the Kuwaiti al-Anba
daily on Thursday. The meeting, which will be held at Change and Reform bloc
chief MP Michel Aoun's Rabieh residence, is expected to tackle various issues
related to the government, national dialogue, presidential elections, and
parliamentary electoral law, said the daily. The talks will serve as an
opportunity to address the discrepancies in political positions among the
various parties of the alliance, added al-Anba.
Jumblat Deems as 'Suicide' Boycott of Legislative Session
Naharnet/November 05/15/Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblat
stressed that MPs of his parliamentary bloc will attend next week's legislative
session, reported As Safir newspaper on Thursday. He told the daily that a
boycott of the meeting would be “suicide”. The Lebanese Forces and Free
Patriotic Movement have said that they will not attend the session because the
parliamentary electoral law was not included on its agenda. The Kataeb Party
said it would not attend before the election of a new president for the country.
“The chance to hold a legislative session does not happen everyday,” remarked
Jumblat. “We should take advantage of it without delay and we should stop our
self-destruction,” stressed the lawmaker. Head of the Musatqbal bloc MP Fouad
Saniora meanwhile denied to As Safir claims that the bloc will boycott the
session if the LF and FPM did not attend. “All sides must realize the importance
of attending the meeting,” he said. The Mustaqbal bloc sees the session as an
opportunity to transport Lebanon to safety, given the financial dangers it is
facing, added the former premier. “We still have hope to resolve the boycott
through political contacts,” Saniora said. Speaker Nabih Berri had called for a
legislative session to be held on November 12 and 13. The parliament had last
convened to address draft-laws on November 5,
Report: Aoun Awaiting Clarification on Legislative Session
as LF Confirms its Boycott
Naharnet/November 05/15/Head of the Change and Reform bloc MP Michel Aoun
revealed that his bloc is prepared to attend next week's legislative session,
reported As Safir newspaper on Thursday. He added however that he is “awaiting
some clarifications and explanations” over some issues before making a final
decision. The Lebanese Forces meanwhile reiterated its rejection of attending a
session that does not include the parliamentary electoral law on its agenda. A
prominent LF source told the daily that there was no convincing reason to omit
the draft-law from the agenda. It stressed that should nothing new emerge on
this front, then the LF and Free Patriotic Movement will stay committed to their
boycott of the legislative session. The two Christian parties had declared on
numerous occasions that they would not attend a legislative session that does
not include the electoral law on its agenda. Speaker Nabih Berri had set the
session for November 12 and 13.
Report: Central Bank Governor Meets Salam to Highlight
Financial Dangers Facing Lebanon
Naharnet/November 05/15/Lebanon is under threat of being classified as a failed
state due to the paralysis of its state institutions and ongoing presidential
vacuum, reported the daily An Nahar on Thursday. A prominent source told the
daily that Lebanon has to reach a radical solution to the trash disposal crisis
and parliament has to approve a number of draft-laws in order to avoid such a
fate. To that end, Central Bank Governor Riad Salameh held talks with Prime
Minister Tammam Salam. The daily said that he is also set to hold similar
discussions with Speaker Nabih Berri. Discussions will focus on the draft-laws
on the upcoming legislative session's agenda, most notably those on money
transfers from abroad and combating money-laundering. Media reports in recent
weeks have highlighted the threat of Lebanon losing its international grants and
loans due to the paralysis of the cabinet, which is linked to political
bickering. The legislative session is scheduled for November 12 and 13.
Soldier Shot in Hermel, Fugitive Arrested at Baalbek Hospital
Naharnet/November 05/15/An army intelligence agent was shot and wounded
Wednesday in the Bekaa city of Hermel as a fugitive was arrested at a hospital
in Baalbek. “Members of the Allaw family opened fire at an army intelligence
patrol in Hermel's al-Marah neighborhood, leaving a soldier wounded,” state-run
National News Agency reported. It said the agent was rushed to al-Assi Hospital
for treatment. Separately, security forces arrested a fugitive from the al-Effi
family at the Dar al-Amal Hospital in Baalbek, the agency said.
European contingent heads to Lebanon to meet Hezbollah leader
ARIEL BEN SOLOMON/J.Post/November 05/15/A delegation of European politicians and
cultural figures met with Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem during a
recent visit to Lebanon, according to the terrorist group’s Al-Manar TV. The
episode that aired on Monday asserted that a group of present and former
European MPs were part of the delegation that met with the Hezbollah leader in a
“show of solidarity with the resistance in its fight against terrorism,”
according to a report by MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute). One
member was former Belgium MP Laurent Louis, who said “the Western leaders’
collaboration with terrorism has been exposed despite their false claims that
they are protecting democracy and human rights.”“Your fight against terrorism
constitutes a comprehensive defense of humanity and of interfaith coexistence,”
said Louis, according Al-Manar. Emmanuel Navon, a lecturer in international
relations at Tel Aviv University and the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya,
told The Jerusalem Post that Laurent Louis is an anti-Semite and a failed
politician. “He joined the Belgian Islamist party, but even they came to
consider him an embarrassment,” said Navon, who is also a senior fellow at the
Kohelet Policy Forum. Louis has accused the Belgian prime minister of being a
pedophile and has accused the Jews of financing the Holocaust in order to
promote Zionism, he added. “Basically, he is an unstable loser looking for
publicity with this visit. It is meaningless.” MEMRI shared information with the
Post on Thursday that the delegation also met with former Lebanese president
Émile Lahoud. Another member of the delegation, Tunisian writer and political
scientist Riadh Sidaoui, who also has Swiss nationality, said they “came as a
delegation from Europe to Lebanon and Syria in order to support the
steadfastness of Syria and to support the resistance.”“President Lahoud said
that what is happening in Syria is a great conspiracy which has been waged for
years due to [Syria’s] support of the resistance. The first to benefit from this
is the Israeli enemy,” recounted the Tunisian writer as reported by the Lebanese
National News Agency. “We are surprised how the billions spent by Saudi Arabia,
Qatar and others are not paid to improve the living conditions in the Arab
countries and building a united Arab society, but are spent on the destruction
of the nationalism and pan-Arabism that was left by Gamal Abdel Nasser.”
MEMRI said that another Arab report indicated that the group was heading to
Damascus.
Two Swiftly Arrested after Robbing
Bank in Jnah
Naharnet/November 05/15/The Internal
Security Forces managed Thursday to quickly arrest two thieves who had robbed a
bank in the Jnah area in southern Beirut in the morning. “Around 10:30 am, two
men riding a motorcycle and carrying pistols entered an IBL bank branch in the
Jnah area and robbed $40,000 and LBP 40 million,” an ISF statement said. But
following close surveillance, an Intelligence Branch force carried out “a
special and abrupt operation at 5:00 pm and managed to arrest the two culprits
in Beirut's Salim Salam area,” the statement added. It identified them as
25-year-old A. S. and 23-year-old F. S. – both Lebanese. “During interrogation,
they confessed that they were behind the aforementioned robbery in addition to 3
other robberies including one of the same bank branch,” the ISF said. “A large
amount of the stolen money and three guns were seized in their possession, in
addition to the rented Renault car that they were riding when they were
apprehended,” the ISF added.
Acting U.S. Ambassador Richard Jones Arrives in Beirut
Naharnet/November 05/15/Acting U.S.
ambassador to Lebanon Richard Jones arrived Thursday in Beirut to replace
Ambassador David Hale pending the arrival of the new head of mission Elizabeth
Richard, state-run National News Agency reported. Jones served as ambassador to
Lebanon between 1996 and 1998. Informed sources have told al-Joumhouria
newspaper that the diplomat will temporarily take charge of Hale's duties until
U.S. administrative arrangements are completed for Elizabeth Richard to
officially begin her mission in Beirut. Hale left Lebanon on Saturday. Richard
is currently a deputy assistant secretary of state in the U.S. State
Department’s Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. She is expected to assume her post
at the start of next year once the U.S. Congress approves her appointment.
Mustard Gas Used in Syria Fighting
in August
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November
05/15/Weapons experts have concluded for the first time that mustard gas was
used during fighting in Syria in August, an official at the global chemical arms
watchdog told AFP Thursday. The deadly gas was used in the flashpoint town Marea
in the northern province of Aleppo on August 21, the source from the
Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) said. "We have
determined the facts, but we have not determined who was responsible," the
source said, asking not to be named. A confidential report has been sent to the
member states of the OPCW, which are due to meet for the U.N. body's annual
conference at the end of November at its headquarters in The Hague. Syrian
rebels and aid groups said that at the end of August dozens of people were
affected by a chemical attack on Marea, where moderate opposition rebels and
militants from the Islamic State (IS) group were battling. Doctors without
Borders (MSF) said it had treated four civilians from one family. According to
patients at an MSF hospital in Aleppo, a mortar hit their house and "after the
explosion a yellow gas filled the living room." According to rebels on the
ground, more than 50 mortar shells were launched on the town that day by IS
militants. The deadly, suffocating gas was first used by German forces in
Belgium during World War I in 1917. It was banned by the United Nations in 1993.
Allegations that the jihadist IS militants have been using chemical arms have
been increasing in recent months in both Iraq and Syria.
Egypt, Russia reject bomb claim over
crashed plane
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News
Thursday, 5 November 2015/Egypt and Russia on Thursday rejected claims that a
bomb has brought down a Russian passenger plane that crashed on Saturday.
Egypt’s civil aviation minister said investigators have found no evidence so far
that an explosion on board brought down the jet. “The investigation team does
not have yet any evidence or data confirming this hypothesis,” Hossam Kamal said
in a statement, adding that Egypt adheres to international security and safety
standards at all its airports. The statement said that flights were continuing
to arrive in Sharm al-Sheikh airport, with 23 set to land on Thursday from
Russia, eight from Ukraine, three from Italy and two from Saudi Arabia, in
addition to 22 domestic arrivals. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said
on Thursday after meeting British Prime Minister David Cameron that his country
is “completely ready” to work together with its partners to protect foreign
tourists. Meanwhile, the Kremlin dismissed any claims over the cause of the
passenger jet crash in Egypt as “speculation” after Britain and the U.S. said a
bomb may have downed the plane. “Any sort of version of what happened and the
reasons for what happened can only be put forward by the investigation and we
have not heard any announcements from the investigation yet,” Kremlin spokesman
Dmitry Peskov told journalists. “Any other proposed explanations seem like
unverified information or some sort of speculation.”Peskov said that Moscow
“cannot rule out any version” of what might have caused the crash but said no
definitive explanation had been presented. Britain and Ireland have temporarily
suspended flights to and from the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh,
where the plane took off from on Saturday bound for Saint Petersburg before
crashing minutes later, killing all 224 people on board. Peskov said that it was
Britain’s “sovereign right to fly or not fly somewhere” but said that “Russian
planes are continuing to fly.” Egypt said on Thursday Britain suspended flights
from Sharm al-Sheikh airport without consultation, despite close contacts
between the two countries and tighter security measures.“The British decision
was taken unilaterally and there were no consultations with Egypt over it
despite the high-level contacts that took place between the two countries hours
before,” the foreign ministry said in a statement on state news agency MENA.
ISIS could be behind crash
U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Homeland Security
Committee, said on Thursday evidence so far indicates there was an ISIS bomb
attack on the Russian passenger plane. McCaul acknowledged another theory - that
the plane’s tail had been worked on several years ago and may have broken off or
otherwise failed - had not been ruled out. “But I think the more likely scenario
where all indicators seem to be pointing, is that this was an ISIS attack with
an explosive device in the airplane,” McCaul told Fox News, using a common
acronym for the militant group. A U.S. official also told AFP that the
possibility that a bomb may have caused the plane crash on Saturday was “a
highly possible scenario.” ISIS jihadist group claims it caused the disaster.
Britain said on Thursday there was a significant possibility that ISIS’s
Egyptian affiliate was behind the suspected bomb attack on a Russian airliner.
The topic is sensitive for Russia, whose warplanes have launched raids against
ISIS in Syria, and for Egypt, which depends heavily on revenues from tourism.
Asked if he thought ISIS was responsible for the disaster, Foreign Secretary
Philip Hammond said: “ISIL-Sinai have claimed responsibility for bringing down
the Russian aircraft, they did that straight away after the crash. “We’ve looked
at the whole information picture, including that claim, but of course lots of
other bits of information as well, and concluded that there is a significant
possibility,” he said on Sky television. Cameron’s office also said that
authorities had “become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down
by an explosive device.” Russia has dispatched investigators to the crash site
in the restive Sinai peninsula to help the Egypt-led probe into the tragedy.
Russian Transport Minister Maxim Sokolov said Thursday that the first recording
from the black box on-board data collectors had been “received” by experts, news
agencies reported. Sokolov also said that Russia had sent Egyptian aviation
authorities a proposal to conduct an “additional audit” into air safety measures
in the country. Meanwhile the first funerals of those killed in the crash were
taking place in Russia on Thursday, with relatives and friends gathering to
mourn their loved ones.
Russia wants foreign planes to re-register
Russia’s airline regulator said on Thursday it was suspending the flying
certificates for foreign planes operated by Russian airlines because it wanted
them to be re-registered on home soil, RIA news agency reported. The crashed
plane was an Airbus A321 airliner registered in Ireland but operated by a
Russian firm.
Official replaced
Meanwhile, the head of Sharm el-Sheikh airport has been replaced amid growing
international concern. Adel Mahgoub, chairman of the state company that runs
Egypt’s civilian airports, says airport chief Abdel-Wahab Ali has been
“promoted” to become his assistant. He said the move late Wednesday had nothing
to do with media skepticism surrounding the airport's security. Mahgoub said Ali
is being replaced by Emad el-Balasi, a pilot.(With Reuters and AFP)
Report: US intel
suggests ISIS bomb most likely caused Russian plane crash in Egypt
JPOST.COM STAFF, REUTERS/J.Post/11/04/2015/A
US official said on Wednesday that the latest US intelligence suggests that the
crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane
planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a CNN report. The Russian
commercial airline crashed in Egypt's Sinai on Saturday, killing all 224
passengers on board. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device
planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN. The source
emphasized that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the US
intelligence community but the assessment that ISIS was involved was reached by
"looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's
plane crash and intelligence gathered since then," the American news outlet
reported. The official said that the US did not have credible or verified
intelligence of a specific threat prior to the crash, but that, "prior to the
incident, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our
attention."CNN quoted another US official who said the intelligence regarding
ISIS is in part based on monitoring of internal messages of the terrorist group,
separate from public ISIS claims of responsibility following the incident.
Britain said earlier on Wednesday that the Russian plane that crashed after
taking off from the resort town of Sharm al-Sheikh might have been brought down
by an explosive device. "While the investigation is still ongoing we cannot say
categorically why the Russian jet crashed," Prime Minister David Cameron's
office said in a statement. "But as more information has come to light we have
become concerned that the plane may well have been brought down by an explosive
device," it added. As a precautionary measure, the government has decided that
flights due to leave Sharm for Britain on Wednesday evening will be delayed to
allow time for a team of UK aviation experts, currently traveling to Sharm, to
make an assessment of the security arrangements in place at the airport.
Israel begins easing some Jerusalem
security measures
By AFP, Jerusalem Thursday, 5
November 2015/Israel has begun lifting some security measures in place over a
wave of violence that raised fears of a full-scale Palestinian uprising,
removing key roadblocks in annexed east Jerusalem, police said Thursday. A
number of checkpoints and roadblocks were dismantled in recent days, a police
spokeswoman said, calling the decision a "direct result of the stabilisation of
the security situation, which allows for this more lenient policy". The decision
would allow a return to "normal life," her statement added. Roadblocks were
installed in a number of locations in east Jerusalem last month after a wave of
Palestinian stabbing, shooting and car-ramming attacks against Israelis began on
October 1. The area of Jabel Mukaber, from where a number of the attackers came,
was largely blocked off by checkpoints. Some of these have been removed, the
statement said. Any deterioration in the relative calm of recent days, however,
will lead the police to "use all means at its disposal against the terrorists
who break the law and order," the statement warned. It said thousands of police
were ready to respond at short notice. Jerusalem was the scene of a spate of
attacks at the beginning of October, but the epicentre of violence has since
moved elsewhere, particularly the West Bank city of Hebron. The latest stabbing
in Jerusalem occurred Friday, after almost two weeks without an attack. Nine
Israelis, 69 Palestinians -- around half of them alleged attackers -- and an
Israeli Arab have been killed since October 1 in attacks in Jerusalem, the West
Bank and elsewhere. Israel occupied east Jerusalem in 1967 and later annexed it
in a move never recognised by the international community.
PalestinianTerrorist killed after attempting to stab IDF soldier at Gush Etzion
Junction
YAAKOV LAPPIN/J.Post/11/05/2015/A
Palestinian man who pulled out a knife and attempted to stab a soldier at the
Gush Etzion junction in the West Bank was shot dead by the army on Thursday.
Soldiers from the Shimshon Battalion, a part of the Kfir Infantry Brigade,
opened fire after seeing the attacker lunge forward with a knife. No soldiers
were hurt in the incident. In light of the continuous spate of Palestinian knife
attacks on Israelis in the Gush Etzion junction area, the IDF doubled the number
of units securing the area last week. Military sources told The Jerusalem Post
that the move is part of a wider effort by the Judea and Samaria Division and
Central Command to protect civilians from knife terrorism plaguing the Gush
Etzion junction very frequently in recent weeks. “We are preparing for this wave
of terrorism to become prolonged, and we are preparing for the potential of an
escalation,” one of the sources said. “We are adjusting the way we activate
forces to deal with knife attacks.”Col. Roman Gofman, commander of the IDF’s
Gush Etzion Brigade, issued instructions to step up patrols around a gas station
in the area, and at other spots prone to knife attacks. Concrete blocks have
been set up around bus stops and hitchhiking posts, and cameras, which dot the
area, help the IDF investigate past incidents and evaluate the security
situation. The Gush junction is an area where Jews and Palestinians frequently
interact, making it a terrorism hot spot in the West Bank.
‘Operational intifada leadership’
urged by Hamas
AFP, Gaza Thursday, 5 November
2015/Exiled Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal called on all Palestinian groups to form
a unified leadership of the current wave of violence against Israel, which he
called an intifada, or uprising. Speaking by video-link from Qatar, the head of
the Islamist group urged other organizations to join “an operational leadership
of the intifada... to put in place an agreed strategy for common struggle
covering all options.”Bloodshed that erupted at the start of October has claimed
the lives of nine Israelis, 70 Palestinians and an Arab Israeli. Much of the
violence has involved Palestinians allegedly attacking Israelis with knives, or
ploughing into them with vehicles, and about half the Palestinians fatalities
consist of attackers who have been shot dead. Neither Israeli or Palestinian
leaders are calling the current wave of violence an intifada, but there are
concerns on both sides that it could escalate into one. In the first two
intifadas, in 1987-1993 and 2000-2005, thousands of people were killed and many
more wounded in near daily violence. Meshaal called for “resistance in all of
its forms, armed or not” in order to “confront the settlers and defend the
Muslim holy places.” Simmering tensions boiled over in September regarding the
status of the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem, a site
holy to both Muslims and Jews, before spiraling into a series of attacks from
October 1. Palestinians accuse Israel of seeking to change the rules governing
the compound, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has insisted he will not
alter a status quo that forbids Jews from praying there.
Netanyahu distances himself from comments by new adviser who suggested Obama
anti-Semitic
J.Post/November 05/15/Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday denounced a number of past statements against
senior US officials made by his newly-appointed media adviser, Ran Baratz.The
Facebook posts written by Baratz came to light on Thursday after he was tapped
by Netanyahu to be his next spokesman and head of public diplomacy and media
relations in the Prime Minister's Office. In one such post, Baratz referred to
US President Barack Obama's response to the premier's Iran speech in Congress as
"modern anti-Semitism.""Allow me to be a bit blunt, which is a break from my
usual moderation," Baratz wrote. "This is what modern anti-Semitism in a liberal
Western country looks like. And, of course, it comes with a great deal of
tolerance and understanding for Islamic anti-Semitism. The tolerance and
understanding is so great that [Obama] is willing to give it a nuclear bomb,"
Baratz wrote. Baratz also referred to US Secretary of State John Kerry as
someone "whose mental age doesn't exceed 12." In a column that he wrote for an
online media magazine last year, Baratz offered a scathing critique of Kerry's
suggestion that the emergence of Islamic radicalism in the Middle East could be
traced to the lingering Israel-Palestine conflict. Netanyahu issued his first
response to the controversy on Thursday evening, after opposition politicians
called for the prime minister to cancel Baratz's appointment."I read for the
first time the comments published by Dr. Ran Baratz on the Internet about the US
president and public figures in the US. They are not worthy and don't reflect my
position or the policy of my government," Netanyahu said. Netanyahu said that
Baratz had apologized for the posts and clarified them in a meeting with him and
the two had agreed to meet again upon Netanyahu's return from his visit to the
US next week. During that visit, Netanyahu will meet with Obama at the White
House in an effort to repair damaged relations between the two leaders which may
be further challenged by Baratz's comments. Baratz, a former university
professor with right-wing views, founded the online Hebrew-language journal MIDA.
After Obama's re-election in 2012, he wrote: "For the next four years, a
pro-Arab, anti-Israel president will continue to rule. His upcoming term will be
even more extreme, and he has nothing more to lose or to hide. The Jews have
once again voted for Obama by a wide majority, and this just shows how wide the
gap has become between the Jews of Israel and the Jews of the US.""The Jews in
America who see Obama as pro-Israeli are the most extreme in their criticism of
Israel," he wrote. "The irresponsible Israeli policy which they seek raises the
question of how exactly they can define themselves as pro-Israel."Baratz himself
issued an apology for his comments on Facebook on Thursday evening, saying that
he was sorry he had not made the prime minister aware of their existence prior
to his appointment. "The things that I wrote were written thoughtlessly and in
some cases as jokes, in language fitting of social media networks and a private
individual. It is clear to me that in a public role, I must behave and express
myself differently. I asked the prime minister for a meeting to clarify the
comments in the coming days."**Arik Bender and Dana Somberg contributed to this
report.
Israel frees former hunger strike
Palestinian
AFP, occupied Jerusalem Thursday, 5
November 2015/Israeli authorities said late on Wednesday they had freed a
Palestinian detainee who survived a two-month hunger strike, after holding him
for a year without trial in a case that sharpened tensions in the West Bank.
“Mohammed Allan has just been released,” Sivan Weizman, a spokeswoman for Israel
Prisons Service, said in a message. Allan’s father Nasser al-Din Allan told AFP
earlier that he would take his son for a hospital checkup on Thursday. Allan was
arrested in November 2014 and held under a measure known as administrative
detention, which allows imprisonment without trial for six-month periods
renewable indefinitely. In June, he began a two-month hunger strike that brought
him close to death and heightened tensions in the occupied West Bank. Israel’s
High Court suspended his detention on August 19 while he was receiving medical
treatment following his hunger strike, which twice left him in a coma. His
detention was renewed in September after his health improved and he was
discharged from hospital. Allan then resumed his hunger strike, only to call it
off two days later. The Israeli army subsequently announced that his detention
would not be renewed and he would be released on November 4. The Islamic Jihad
group (PIJ) says the 31-year-old lawyer from Einabus, near the northern West
Bank city of Nablus, is a member. Israel’s Shin Bet internal security agency
says that before his arrest, Allan “was in contact with an Islamic Jihad
terrorist” with the aim of carrying out large-scale attacks. He was previously
imprisoned from 2006 to 2009 for allegedly seeking to recruit suicide bombers
and aiding wanted Palestinians. Allan’s release comes as a wave of violence
rocks the West Bank and Israel. Nine Israelis, 70 Palestinians - around half of
them alleged attackers - and an Arab Israeli have died since the start of
October.
Syria Druze group:
Regime has declared war on us
Now Lebanon/November 05/15/BEIRUT –
The Sheikhs of Dignity movement has angrily accused the Syrian regime of
“declaring war” against it after state media ran a report linking the
independent group to the death of a top Baath Party official in Suweida. “The
accusation that we killed the late Shibli Junoud is tantamount to a declaration
of war against us by the state,” the group said in a statement issued on its
Facebook page on Wednesday. Junoud—the Baath Party secretary in the
Druze-populated Suweida province—died after he was kidnapped by unknown men on
September 25, three weeks after Sheikhs of Dignity leader Waheed Balaous was
assassinated in a car bombing. The Sheikhs of Dignity movement, which calls for
reforms in Suweida and criticizes the regime, made a veiled threat in their
statement, warning that “we have shown patience of late in order to prevent
bloodshed but… our patience has run out, enough is enough.”“Any attack on the
Men of Dignity will be considered an attack on the whole mountain,” it further
warned. “The tables will be turned on the cowards who have ignited the fires of
sedition in the united house.” Tension spiked in Syria’s southern Suweida
province following Waheed Balaous’ killing, with an angry protest breaking out
during the Druze cleric’s funeral procession and the killing of six regime
security personnel in the days following his assassination. Balaous’ brother
Rafaat then took up his brother’s mantle, assuming leadership of the Sheikhs of
Dignity in October. In his first official statement he accused the regime of
being behind Waheed’s death, while Damascus, for its part, has insisted the Al-Nusra
Front perpetrated the car bombing.
Regime links Sheikhs of Dignity to Junoud killing
The Men of Dignity’s statement comes after Syria’s official Organization of
Syrian Arab Radio and TV (ORTAS) linked Rafaat Balaous to Junoud’s death. In the
detailed report, an official source from Suweida told ORTAS a state
investigation had revealed that the Baath party official was held captive in
Balaous’ house. The interrogations carried out with Atef Mallak, the Baath
official’s doctor, led to his admission that he inspected… Junoud during the
first days of his kidnapping,” the source said. “It became clear that Junoud had
suffered a heart attack as a result of tension during his kidnapping.”The source
claimed that the doctor had inspected Junoud twice and advised the kidnappers to
take him to a hospital, but they refused and threatened to kill him and his
family. “Doctor Mallak said that on the sixth day of Junoud’s kidnapping he
called the kidnappers to enquire about the patient’s health. They informed him
that Junoud had passed away and that he had been buried.”The source added that
according to both official investigations and Mallak’s admission “the captive,
Junoud, was in the residence of Rafaat Balaous.”OTRAS’s report also featured
praise of Junoud and condemnations of his death by Druze Sheikh Akl Hikmat al-Hajri,
and two of the sect’s other prominent sheikhs Youssef Jarbou, and Hammoud al-Hinnawi,
all of whom are known for their pro-regime stances. However, none of the three
sheikhs directly accused Rafaat Balaous of responsibility for Junoud’s
kidnapping and subsequent death.
Russia reportedly sends
missile systems to Syria
By Reuters, Moscow Thursday, 5 November 2015/Russia has sent missile systems to
Syria to protect its military forces there, the head of Russia’s air force said
on Thursday. Colonel General Viktor Bondarev said fighter jets could be hijacked
in countries neighboring Syria and used to attack Russian forces. “We have
calculated all possible threats. We have sent not only fighter jets, bombers and
helicopters, but also missile systems,” Bondarev told Komsomolskaya Pravda
newspaper. “We must be ready.”
Syrian regime ‘profits from disappearances’
AFP, Beirut Thursday, 5 November 2015/Syria’s government is profiting from money
charged to families of people trying to find loved ones forcibly disappeared in
what are crimes against humanity, rights group Amnesty International charged on
Thursday. The group said the Syrian state was benefiting from an “insidious
black market in which family members desperate to find out the fates of their
disappeared relatives are ruthlessly exploited for cash.” Amnesty said nearly
60,000 civilians are believed to have been “disappeared” since Syria’s conflict
began with anti-government protests in March 2011. Families are left with no
trace of their relatives and often face detention themselves if they contact
security services seeking information.
Rise of middlemen
That has given rise to a black market in which middlemen are paid sums up to
tens of thousands of dollars to collect information about missing loved ones.
“As well as shattering lives, disappearances are driving a black market economy
of bribery which trades in the suffering of families who have lost a loved one,”
said Philip Luther, director Amnesty’s Middle East and North Africa program.
“They are left with mounting debts and a gaping hole where a loved one used to
be.”Nicolette Boehland, the report’s author, said there was ample evidence that
the state was benefitting from the money being paid to brokers. “We are certain
that government and prison officials are profiting from the payments they
receive in relation to disappearances, as this has been corroborated by hundreds
of witnesses,” she told AFP.“The practice is so widespread that it is difficult
to believe the government is not aware of it and effectively condoning it by
failing to take action to stop it.”
False hopes
Amnesty said some families had sold property or spent their life savings trying
to find missing relatives, sometimes receiving false information in exchange. It
cited the case of one man whose three bothers disappeared in 2012 and who spent
$150,000 (138,000 euros) trying to find them.
He was unsuccessful and ended up in Turkey, working to pay back his debts, the
group said. Luther said the government’s campaign of enforced disappearances
amounted to crimes against humanity and urged the U.N. Security Council to refer
the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court. More than 250,000
people have been killed in Syria since the conflict began in March 2011 with
protests against President Bashar al-Assad’s rule. All parties to the
increasingly complex war have been accused of rights violations of varying
degrees of severity, ranging from arbitrary detention to the use of chemical
weapons.
Pentagon welcomes advance by
ISIS-fighting allies in Syria
AFP, Washington Thursday, 5 November 2015/A coalition including Syrian Arab
groups regained a swath of territory in northeastern Syria from ISIS militants,
a U.S. military spokesman said Wednesday, calling it an encouraging success. The
fighters, who are from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its Syrian Arab
Coalition subgroup, regained 87 square miles (255 square kilometers) near the
town of al-Hawl, U.S. military spokesman Colonel Steve Warren said. The group
"conducted an attack ... driving ISIL back," Warren said by videoconference from
Baghdad, using an alternate acronym for ISIS. "This is not a large tactical
action," he said, but "we are encouraged by what we saw." The spokesman said the
operation had pitted "well over a thousand friendly forces" against "several
hundred enemies" in the vicinity, after heavy U.S. airstrikes had cleared the
way. Warren said the U.S. intended to "reinforce" the action, seeming to hint at
further ammunition air drops to U.S.-allied groups after those that took place
last month. The Syrian Democratic Forces were formed in mid-October as an
alliance between the powerful Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) and other
Syrian rebel groups. The Pentagon's announcement came just a day after The New
York Times published an article calling into question the capabilities of the
SDF and the Syrian Arab Coalition. Referring to the SDF, The Times said that
"nearly all the group's fighting power comes from ethnic Kurdish militias" -
suggesting it was not quite the coalition of Arabs and Kurds it claimed to be.
France to Deploy Aircraft
Carrier in Anti-IS Fight in Syria, Iraq
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November
05/15/The French presidency on Thursday said it would deploy its Charles de
Gaulle aircraft carrier to boost its operations against the Islamic State group
in Iraq and Syria. The presence of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the
flagship of the French navy, will add to the six Rafale jets stationed in the
United Arab Emirates and the six Mirages flying out of Jordan. The Charles de
Gaulle did a two-month stint in the Gulf from February, from where strikes
against IS in Iraq were carried out, before returning to its base in the French
port of Toulon. During this time about 20 aircraft carried out 10-15 combat
sorties a day, according to the army. France launched air strikes against the
jihadists in Syria in October, after a year of bombing IS in Iraq, saying it was
acting in self defense. France was hit by a jihadist attack in January that left
17 dead and has foiled several other attempted attacks. The country fears
hundreds of citizens that have left to fight with IS in Iraq and Syria will
return to launch attacks on home soil. Since beginning operations in Iraq,
French fighter jets have carried out 1,285 aerial missions, resulting in 271
strikes and the destruction of 459 targets. Only two known strikes have so far
been carried out in Syria.
Russia’s Syria force grows to
4,000: U.S. officials
Reuters, Washington Thursday, 5 November 2015/Moscow’s military force in Syria
has grown to about 4,000 personnel, but this and more than a month of Russian
air strikes have not led to pro-government forces making significant territorial
gains, U.S. security officials and independent experts said. Moscow, which has
maintained a military presence in Syria for decades as an ally of the ruling
Assad family, had an estimated 2,000 personnel in the country when it began air
strikes on Sept. 30. The Russian force has since roughly doubled and the number
of bases it is using has grown, U.S. security officials said. The Russians have
suffered combat casualties, including deaths, said three U.S. security officials
familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, adding that they did not know the
exact numbers. The U.S. has extensive intelligence assets in the region, along
with satellite imagery and electronic eavesdropping coverage and contacts with
moderate Sunni and Kurdish rebels on the ground in Syria. Russia’s foreign
ministry declined to comment on the size of the Russian contingent in Syria or
any casualties it has suffered. It referred questions to the Russian Defense
Ministry, which did not respond to written questions submitted by Reuters. The
Kremlin has said there are no Russian troops in combat roles in Syria, though it
has said there are trainers and advisers working alongside the Syrian military
and also forces guarding Russia’s bases in western Syria. The only death the
Russian government has reported was that of a serviceman who the military said
died by suicide. The man’s parents have said they doubted this account. The U.S.
has strongly criticized President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in
Syria’s 4-1/2-year civil war, and President Barack Obama has predicted it could
lead to a quagmire for Russia. But Obama has had little success in affecting the
conflict himself. Washington has targeted ISIS in more than a year of air
strikes, and last week Obama ordered the first U.S. troops into Syria - a small
contingent of up to 50 special operations forces who will advise U.S.-backed
rebels.
Russia Sent Missile Systems to Syria, Says Air Force Chief
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/Russia sent anti-aircraft missile
systems to Syria to back up its air campaign, the commander of the air force
Viktor Bondarev said in an interview published Thursday. "We sent there not just
fighter planes, strike aircraft and helicopters but also anti-aircraft rocket
systems," Bondarev told Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid daily. He said that Russia
made the decision to bring missile systems to Syria because "we took into
account every possible threat.""There could be various force majeur situations.
Let's imagine a military plane is hijacked and taken to a neighboring country
and air strikes are aimed at us. And we have to be ready for this." The defense
ministry could not be immediately reached for comment. Bondarev said Russia has
"more than 50 planes and helicopters" in Syria, "precisely the number we need.
At the moment, we do not need more."He said that a Russian jet that strayed into
Turkish territory in October had done so because as it flew along the Turkish
border in dense cloud "the equipment showed that some ground-based air defense
systems were trying to capture the plane. "Therefore the pilot had to make an
anti-missile maneuver. So he passed into the Turkish air a tiny bit. As we
honestly admitted," Bondarev said. The defense ministry previously said only
that the plane strayed into Turkish air space on October 3 because of bad
weather conditions. Turkey said the Russian aircraft exited its airspace after
it was intercepted by two Turkish F-16 fighter jets.NATO called the incident a
"serious violation."
Syria Rebels Seize Key Regime Town on Hama-Aleppo Road
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/Syrian rebels, including jihadists,
seized the last government-held town on the main highway between second city
Aleppo and the city of Hama to the south, a monitoring group said. Jihadist
group "Jund al-Aqsa and opposition groups have seized full control of the town
of Morek after a fierce offensive," the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
said. Jund al-Aqsa hailed the victory on its Twitter account.
U.S., allies target ISIS with
fresh round of airstrikes
Reuters, Washington Thursday, 5 November 2015/The U.S.-led coalition fighting
Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) targeted the militants with 23 air
strikes on Wednesday, the U.S. military said in a statement. Twenty fresh
strikes in Iraq targeted the militant group in eight cities, including Sinjar,
Ramadi and Mosul, the statement released on Thursday said. In Syria, three
strikes hit near Mar'a, Al Hasaka and Al Hawl.
France to deploy aircraft
carrier in anti-ISIS fight in Syria, Iraq
Reuters, Paris Thursday, 5 November 2015/France will deploy its aircraft carrier
to support operations against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, President Francois
Hollande said on Thursday, bolstering Paris' firepower in the region amid
international efforts to launch Syrian peace talks. The carrier is usually
accompanied by an attack submarine, several frigates, refuelling ships, as well
as fighter jets and surveillance aircraft. “The aircraft carrier will enable us
to be more efficient in coordination with our allies,” Hollande said at the
inauguration of the new defence ministry headquarters in Paris
French warplanes struck their first targets in Syria at the end of September. It
was the first country to join the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq and has also
provided limited logistical support to Syrian rebels it considers moderate,
including Kurds. However, Hollande's government has faced criticism at home for
his Syria policy with some saying Paris has lacked flexibility and cohesion on
the crisis. A meeting on Thursday of France's defence cabinet, which includes
key ministers and officials from the intelligence services and military, aimed
to outline how France will proceed over the next months in Syria and Iraq on
both a political and military level. “The president underlined the importance of
supporting the Vienna process to move towards a political transition,” a
statement from the presidency following the meeting said, referring to
international talks held in recent weeks between key stakeholders. “He said the
core elements of any accord had to be the fight against Islamic State and the
end of the bombing of civilians. (Syrian President Bashar al-Assad) cannot be in
any way part of the future of Syria.”The talks have so far yielded no
breakthrough, although a new round is expected next week. France has also been
one of the main backers of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and
Opposition Forces, one of the main parties in international discussions to end
the four-year-old civil war. Diplomatic sources said its president Khaled Khoja
would meet French officials in Paris on Friday to discuss latest developments.
Free Syrian Army reps to meet Russian officials next week
Reuters, Moscow/Beirut Thursday, 5 November 2015/A Free Syrian Army delegation
has agreed to meet Russian officials in Abu Dhabi late next week to discuss the
Syrian crisis, a Russian news agency said on Thursday, but representatives of
four FSA rebel groups dismissed the report. The Sputnik news agency cited a
coordinator of the talks as saying the FSA delegation would meet Russian foreign
and defence ministry officials. In late October, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a
loose alliance of rebel groups, denied its delegations had visited Moscow amid
heightened diplomacy on Syria. The FSA does not operate with a centralised
command structure. According to the coordinator cited in the Sputnik report,
Mahmoud al-Afandi, 28 FSA brigades in the suburbs of Damascus, Quneitra, Hama
and the western suburb of Homs, as well as from the northern front and from the
suburbs of Aleppo and Idlib, had agreed to meet Russian officials. He was quoted
as saying that the meeting would discuss the creation of a joint operating
centre to fight Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the Nusra Front, as
well as the search for a political solution. But representatives of
FSA-affiliated groups that receive backing from foreign states opposed to Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad dismissed the report, with one saying the Russians had
been meeting Syrians who falsely claimed to be FSA. Bashar al Zoubi, a prominent
rebel figure, said there was no sign that the Russians wanted an ‘honest
solution’ to the war, and therefore there was no contact with them. Zoubi, who
is head of the political office of the FSA-affiliated Yarmouk Army, added that
he had not heard anything of the meeting and that Russia had been searching for
allies in the rebellion and political opposition to strengthen its position.
Fares al-Bayoush, head of another FSA group, Fursan al Haq, said no FSA
delegation was going to meet the Russians. “They are meeting with Syrians
who do not represent anyone, and claim they met representatives of the Free
Army,” he said. A member of the FSA-affiliated Sham Revolutionary Brigades’
leadership council, as well as the head of the FSA group 13th Division fighting
in western Syria, echoed the denials. Russia has recently stepped up its efforts
to broker a peace deal between Syrian government officials and members of the
country’s splintered opposition. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail
Bogdanov said on Tuesday the Kremlin would invite representatives of both sides
to meet in Moscow next week.
Syria rebels seize regime town
on Hama-Aleppo road
By AFP, Beirut Thursday, 5 November 2015/Syrian rebels seized the last
government-held town on the main highway between second city Aleppo and the city
of Hama to its south on Thursday, a monitoring group said. The blow to the
Damascus regime came just a day after it recaptured from ISIS forces an
alternative route further east that had provided its sole link to neighborhoods
of Aleppo under its control. Militant faction Jund al-Aqsa and opposition groups
have seized full control of the town of Morek after a fierce offensive, the
Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said. The Britain-based watchdog’s director
Rami Abdel Rahman said that clashes were still raging in the south and east of
the town, and that “dozens” of soldiers had been killed or wounded. Jund al-Aqsa
boasted of victory on its Twitter account, but a Syrian security source denied
any major setback. “There are clashes around Morek and there is some
infiltration but the fighting is ongoing and we are dealing with the situation,”
he told AFP. Morek has changed hands several times in Syria’s four-year civil
war. Government troops last retook it in October 2014. Last month, Syrian troops
launched a major fightback in Hama province with Russian air support, with the
main Aleppo highway a principal objective. It was one of a number of
counteroffensives the Damascus regime has launched since Moscow intervened in
its support on September 30. But they have faced fierce resistance, particularly
in Hama. “Instead of gaining ground, the regime has lost territory,” Abdel
Rahman said. On Wednesday, the Syrian army recaptured the alternative route it
was using to reach the government-held western sector of Aleppo city, relieving
tens of thousands of stranded civilians. Advancing ISIS forces had severed the
road late last month. There are several rival jihadist groups fighting in Syria.
As well as ISIS, there is al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front, with which it has
frequently fought. There is also Jund al-Aqsa, which last month withdrew from
the Army of Conquest alliance of Al-Nusra and Islamist factions, which controls
Idlib province in the northwest and parts of neighboring Hama and Latakia. In a
statement posted on its Twitter account, the group said the Army of Conquest was
not dedicated enough to establishing a Syria ruled by Islamic law.
U.S., UK Say Bomb May Have Downed Russian Jet, Cairo and
Moscow Dismiss Concerns
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/Britain probed security at Egypt's
Sharm el-Sheikh airport on Thursday and scrambled to repatriate thousands of
tourists as Cairo and Moscow dismissed fears a Russian plane was downed by a
bomb. Hours after Britain announced it was suspending flights in and out of the
Red Sea resort, where most tourists are British or Russia, Germany's Lufthansa
followed suit, citing "the current situation on the Sinai peninsula" as fears
grew over airline safety. And several European governments said they were also
reviewing the situation. British Prime Minister David Cameron held an emergency
cabinet meeting on the repatriations and spoke to Russian President Vladimir
Putin to explain the decision before talks with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
al-Sisi at Downing Street. Citing intelligence, Cameron said it was "more likely
than not that it was a terrorist bomb" that had caused a Russian passenger jet
to crash in the Sinai Peninsula on Saturday. "There are a relatively simple and
straightforward set of things that need to happen at Sharm el-Sheikh airport to
give us greater certainty of safety," he added. Flight KGL9268, which was
heading for Saint Petersburg, crashed soon after takeoff from Sharm el-Sheikh
airport, killing all 224 people on board. Washington also believes a bomb may
have caused the crash, but Cairo and Moscow contradicted that assessment. A U.S.
official familiar with the matter told CNN on Wednesday that the latest U.S.
intelligence suggests that the crash was most likely caused by a bomb on the
plane planted by the Islamic State group or an IS affiliate. The official
stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S.
intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device
planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official said. The assessment
was reached, the official added, by looking back at intelligence reports that
had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since
then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a
specific threat prior to the crash, however, the official said, prior to the
incident, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our
attention." Another U.S. official said the intelligence regarding the IS is in
part based on monitoring of internal messages of the extremist group. Those
messages are separate from public IS claims of responsibility, that official
said. Egypt's civil aviation minister Hossam Kamal said Thursday that
investigators "have as yet no evidence or data confirming the theory" of a bomb
attack. And the Kremlin dismissed the idea as "speculation." "The reasons for
what happened can only be put forward by the investigation," said Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "Any other proposed explanations seem like unverified
information or some sort of speculation."
Sisi, Cameron in talks
On Thursday, Cameron welcomed the Egyptian president to Downing Street on a
pre-planned trip -- his first visit to Britain since the overthrow of his
predecessor Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Around 200 protestors staged a demonstration
against Sisi's human rights record, some temporarily blocking the entrance to
Downing Street. Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Britain was planning
emergency measures to repatriate holidaymakers from Sharm el-Sheikh, starting
from Friday. There are an estimated 20,000 Britons currently at the Red Sea
resort. Hammond said the measures "will allow us to screen everything going onto
those planes, double-check those planes so we can be confident that they can fly
back safely to the UK."
A small British military team has been sent to the resort as part of the review.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry told CNN television it was "somewhat
premature" to reach conclusions and suspend flights. But Hammond said Shoukry
"hasn't seen all the information that we have." The Islamic State jihadist group
claims it caused the crash and said Wednesday it would reveal how at a time of
its choosing. The Russian jet was flying at altitude of 30,000 feet (9,150
meters) when it lost contact with authorities, 23 minutes after take-off.
Experts say the fact that debris and bodies were strewn over a wide area points
indicated the aircraft disintegrated in mid-air, meaning the crash was likely
caused by either a technical fault or a bomb on board. If confirmed, it would be
the first time Islamic State, which controls large areas of Syria and Iraq, has
bombed a passenger plane. The IS affiliate in Egypt is waging a bloody
insurgency in north Sinai that has killed hundreds of policemen and soldiers.
Egypt tourism threatened
The crash has sparked fears in Egypt over its vital tourism sector on the
peninsula. A string of major tour operators have suspended package flights to
its resorts, while analysts have warned the industry faces serious risk of
lasting damage. "Tourism in Egypt will simply die if it was a terrorist attack
that brought the plane down," said Hamada Nagi, a tour operator from the Red Sea
resort of Hurgada. Russia on Thursday began burying the first victims of the
crash, with several hundred people gathering in Veliky Novgorod, south of Saint
Petersburg. Russian air force commander Viktor Bondarev also said Moscow had
sent anti-aircraft missile systems to Syria to back up its air campaign in order
to counter "every possible threat.""Let's imagine a military plane is hijacked
and taken to a neighboring country and air strikes are aimed at us. And we have
to be ready for this," Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper quoted him as saying.
Israel Frees Former Hunger Strike Palestinian
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/Israeli authorities said late
Wednesday they had freed a Palestinian detainee who survived a two-month hunger
strike, after holding him for a year without trial in a case that sharpened
tensions in the West Bank. "Mohammed Allan has just been released," Sivan
Weizman, a spokeswoman for Israel Prisons Service, said in a message. Allan's
father Nasser al-Din Allan told AFP earlier that he would take his son for a
hospital checkup on Thursday. Allan was arrested in November 2014 and held under
a measure known as administrative detention, which allows imprisonment without
trial for six-month periods renewable indefinitely. In June, he began a
two-month hunger strike that brought him close to death and heightened tensions
in the occupied West Bank. Israel's High Court suspended his detention on August
19 while he was receiving medical treatment following his hunger strike, which
twice left him in a coma. His detention was renewed in September after his
health improved and he was discharged from hospital. Allan then resumed his
hunger strike, only to call it off two days later. The Israeli army subsequently
announced that his detention would not be renewed and he would be released on
November 4. The radical Islamic Jihad group says the 31-year-old lawyer from
Einabus, near the northern West Bank city of Nablus, is a member. Israel's Shin
Bet internal security agency says that before his arrest, Allan "was in contact
with an Islamic Jihad terrorist" with the aim of carrying out large-scale
attacks. He was previously imprisoned from 2006 to 2009 for allegedly seeking to
recruit suicide bombers and aiding wanted Palestinians. Allan's release comes as
a wave of violence rocks the West Bank and Israel. Nine Israelis, 70
Palestinians -- around half of them alleged attackers -- and an Arab Israeli
have died since the start of October.
Bahrain jails five for
Iran-linked militancy, strips their citizenship
Reuters, Cairo Thursday, 5 November 2015/Five Bahrainis were convicted of
conspiring with Iran to carry out attacks inside Bahrain, sentenced to life
imprisonment and stripped of their citizenship, Bahrain’s Public Prosecutor was
cited as saying by state news agency BNA reported. The Sunni Muslim-ruled
kingdom says Shiite neighbour Iran is trying to foment unrest among its majority
Shi’ite population. Tehran denies this. On Wednesday, the interior ministry said
it had arrested 47 members of a group it said had ties to “terror elements in
Iran” and was also plotting attacks. Public Prosecutor Ahmed al-Hammadi said in
a statement on BNA that two defendants were present at the sentencing at
Bahrain’s Criminal Court, while the rest were tried in absentia. The statement
said the five communicated with members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard with the
aim of carrying out attacks on banks and public buildings. Two of them had
trained in Iran with the Revolutionary Guard, while the others provided
financial and logistical support, it said. Last month Bahrain recalled its
ambassador to Iran, a day after the Gulf Arab state said its security forces had
discovered a large bomb-making factory and had arrested a number of suspects
linked to the Revolutionary Guard. Home to the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet, Bahrain
faced protests during the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings in which Shiites demanded
political reforms.
The government denies that it discriminates against Shiites.
5 Bahrain Shiites Get Life in Jail for 'Spying for Iran'
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/ A Bahraini court on Thursday
revoked the citizenship of five Shiites convicted of spying for Iran and
sentenced them to life imprisonment, a judicial source told AFP. The verdict
comes amid escalated tension between Bahrain and Iran, as Manama recalled its
ambassador and asked Tehran's envoy to leave last month claiming interference in
its affairs. It also came a day after Bahrain said it has uncovered a "terrorist
organization" linked to Iran and arrested 47 of its members, foiling imminent
attacks in the Sunni-ruled Gulf kingdom. The five defendants were convicted of
"spying for and seeking with Iran and its agents to carry out hostile acts
against the kingdom", the source said. They were found guilty of working with
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard to carry out attacks in Bahrain against public
facilities and banks. Two of them had received training in Iran on "the
manufacture and use of explosives and firearms in preparation for carrying out
these hostile attacks", according to the charges. Three of those convicted, one
of whom is in Iran, are being tried in absentia while the remaining two who
appeared in court Thursday said they were forced to confess "under torture", the
source said.
Dubai, United Arab Emirates | AFP | Thursday 11/5/2015 - 11:21 GMT | 320 words
ADDS IRAN REAX
A Bahraini court on Thursday revoked the citizenship of five Shiites convicted
of spying for Iran and sentenced them to life imprisonment, a judicial source
told AFP. The verdict comes amid escalated tension between Bahrain and Iran, as
Manama recalled its ambassador and asked Tehran's envoy to leave last month
claiming interference in its affairs. It also came a day after Bahrain said it
has uncovered a "terrorist organisation" linked to Iran and arrested 47 of its
members, foiling imminent attacks in the Sunni-ruled Gulf kingdom. The five
defendants were convicted of "spying for and seeking with Iran and its agents to
carry out hostile acts against the kingdom", the source said. They were found
guilty of working with Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard to carry out attacks in
Bahrain against public facilities and banks. Two of them had received training
in Iran on "the manufacture and use of explosives and firearms in preparation
for carrying out these hostile attacks", according to the charges. Three of
those convicted, one of whom is in Iran, are being tried in absentia while the
remaining two who appeared in court Thursday said they were forced to confess
"under torture", the source said. In Iran, a foreign ministry official rejected
the latest accusations against Tehran as "baseless."Repeating such charges "does
not change the reality," said the official, quoted by the ISNA news agency. "We
advise Bahraini officials to resolve their country's internal problems instead
of accusing others." Shiite-majority Bahrain has been hit by unrest since a
pro-democracy uprising in 2011, and it frequently accuses predominantly Shiite
Iran of meddling in its affairs. In August, Bahrain arrested five people
suspected of links with Iran in connection with a bombing that killed two
policemen.
Sisi: Egypt ‘ready to
cooperate’ to ensure tourists’ security
By Staff writer, Al Arabiya News Thursday, 5 November 2015/Egypt is “completely
ready” to work together with its partners to protect foreign tourists, Egyptian
President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said on Thursday after meeting British Prime
Minister David Cameron. Following talks in Downing Street, Sisi said he was
“completely ready to co-operate with all of our friends” to ensure the safety of
foreign tourists as fears grew that a weekend plane crash in Egypt’s Sinai
Peninsula may have been caused by a bomb.
Sisi said that the UK requested information on Egypt’s airports’ security 10
months ago. Cameron, meanwhile, said Britain is working extensively together
with Egypt on Sharm al-Sheikh crash. However, Egypt’s Tourism Minister Hesham
Zaazou said on Thursday that Britain’s decision to suspend flights from the
Sinai Peninsula following the Russian plane crash there was unjustified and
called for an immediate rethink. “The decision is unjustified and carries a lot
of question marks,” he said in remarks on the state news agency MENA.(With AFP,
Reuters)
Egypt Court Postpones Mubarak Murder Retrial
Agence France Presse/Naharnet/November 05/15/Egypt's top court began a retrial
Thursday of ex-president Hosni Mubarak over the deaths of protesters during the
2011 uprising that ousted him, but postponed the hearing after a brief session.
The Court of Cassation postponed the retrial to January 21. In June 2012 a court
had convicted the 87-year-old, who ruled Egypt with an iron fist for three
decades, for the deaths of hundreds of protesters and sentenced him to life in
prison. But that verdict was appealed and a new trial ordered. On November 29
last year, the judge in the case dropped the charges. The prosecution appealed
that ruling, and the Court of Cassation overturned it, ordering the retrial that
commenced on Thursday. The Court of Cassation itself is conducting the retrial
and its ruling will not be subject to appeal. Mubarak has been held for months
in a military hospital in Cairo due to ill health, his lawyer Fareed al-Deeb
said. Judge Ahmed Abdel Kawy adjourned the retrial "to take necessary measures
and procedures to move the trial to a suitable place and bring the defendant".
Deeb told Agence France Presse that his client is serving a three-year sentence
handed down in a separate trial that saw him convicted of embezzling 125 million
Egyptian pounds ($16 million) from funds meant for the maintenance of
presidential palaces. Mubarak and his two sons Alaa and Gamal were all arrested
in 2011, months after the former strongman was toppled in a popular 18-day
uprising.
Egypt court postpones Mubarak’s
final trial over 2011 killing of protesters
Reuters, Cairo Thursday, 5 November
2015/Egypt’s top court on Thursday postponed the final trial of former Egyptian
president Hosni Mubarak over the killing of protesters during the 2011 uprising
that ended his 30-year rule.
The Cassation Court adjourned Mubarak’s second and final retrial until Jan. 21
and ordered that it be moved from the High Court building in the center of Cairo
to a “suitable location”.Many high profile trials have taken place at Cairo’s
heavily fortified Police Academy since the 2011 uprising. The court did not
specify where it would move the trial. Mubarak, 87, was originally sentenced to
life in prison in 2012 for conspiring to murder 239 demonstrators, sowing chaos
and creating a security vacuum during an 18-day revolt which began in January
2011, but a retrial was ordered on appeal. In that retrial, an Egyptian court in
November dropped its case against him but public prosecutors appealed.
Mubarak-era figures are slowly being cleared of charges and a series of laws
limiting political freedoms have raised fears that the old leadership is
regaining influence. Many Egyptians who lived through Mubarak’s rule view it as
a period of autocracy and crony capitalism. His overthrow led to Egypt’s first
free election, which brought in Islamist President Mohamed Mursi. But Mursi only
lasted a year in office after mass protests against his rule in 2013 prompted
then military chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to take power. Sisi went on to win a
presidential election last year. He has since cracked down on Mursi and his
Muslim Brotherhood and thousands of Brotherhood supporters have been jailed.
Former Iraq environment minister
jailed for corruption
AFP, Baghdad Thursday, 5 November
2015/A former Iraqi environment minister has been sentenced to two years in
prison for corruption and ordered to pay some $280,000 to the state, the
judiciary said Thursday. Sargon Lazar Slewa, a Christian who served in former
premier Nuri al-Maliki’s government, was tried on charges “related to
corruption,” a judicial statement said. The statement did not give details on
Slewa’s actions, or say when he was detained. He served as a minister during
Maliki’s second term in office, which ended in 2014. Widespread public anger
over corruption and poor services led to weeks of protests earlier this year,
pushing Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to announce a series of reforms aimed at
streamlining the government and combatting graft. But the endemic nature of
corruption in Iraq and the fact that officials are limiting their own privileges
by implementing some changes are major obstacles to reform. And while officials
such as Slewa are periodically punished for graft, more powerful politicians who
have allegedly engaged in far greater corruption remain at large.
Anti-air missiles in ISIS hands also imperil Saudi, Jordanian and
Israeli skies
DEBKAfile Special Report November
05/2015
The British Cobra (emergency cabinet) decision of Wednesday, Nov. 4, not to send
airliners to or from Sharm El-Sheikh, where 20,000 British tourists are
stranded, further strengthens the assumption that the Russian Metrojet Flight
9268 was downed over Sinai Saturday by a terrorist missile. It confirms that air
traffic over Sinai and landings at Sharm are under threat from the ground - else
why leave a large group of Britons under virtual siege in the Egyptian Red Sea
resort? London said that the suspension of flights to Sharm was “indefinite.”
Moscow early Thursday accused London of being moved to this action out of
hostility to Russia rather than security concerns.
Downing Street released a statement Wednesday saying: "As more information has
come to light, we have become concerned that the plane may well have been
brought down by an explosive device.” This statement was criticized by Egypt as
“premature” – not a good omen for the conversation Prime Minister David Cameron
is due to hold with his visitor, Egyptian president Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi, later
Thursday.
The British government has therefore stubbed toes in Moscow and Cairo without
coming up with an emergency plan for evacuating its citizens from Egypt, whether
overland to Cairo by bus or by sea aboard ships picking them up at the Red Sea
resort and sailing through the Suez Canal.
This lack of initiative is a sign of confusion and uncertainty.
So far, the drawn-out deliberations and prevarications by officials in several
countries regarding the crash of the Russian plane are meant for one purpose: to
gain time for doing nothing about ISIS in Sinai. Neither the US, Russia or
Britain is ready to send forces to the peninsula to confront the terrorists
head-on.
The Ansar al Sharia terrorist organization in Libya, which attacked the US
consulate in Benghazi and murdered the American ambassador in 2012, has the very
missiles capable of shooting down large airliners flying at high altitudes:
Russian-made ground-to-air Buk missiles, which have a range of between three and
42 kilometers. This ultra-violent Islamist terror group has very close
operational ties with ISIS-Sinai, and very possibly smuggled the missile system
into Sinai from Libya.
A number of intelligence agencies are aware of this and so a flock of leading
European and Persian Gulf airlines lost no time in rerouting their flights to
avoid Sinai straight after the Russian air disaster.
By causing this disaster, the Islamist terrorists coolly aimed for four goals:
1. Retaliation for Russian intervention in Syria
2. An attempt to destabilize the regime of Egyptian President Fattah Al-Sisi
3. To show up the inadequacies of the 63-member coalition that the US formed in
its effort to fight ISIS
4. To parade before the world the Islamic State’s operational prowess, its
ability to shoot down the large passenger planes of the world’s biggest powers.
For five days, intelligence and flight safety experts dismissed the claim of
responsibility that ISIS issued on the evening of October 31, maintaining that
it was not to be taken seriously because no proof had been provided to support
the claim – as if the charred fragments of the plane spread across tens of
kilometers of desert were deniable.
In the second of its three messages, ISIS repeated its claim Wednesday, Nov. 4,
promising details of how it downed the plane at a later date.
While more and more Western governments are coming around to accepting that the
Russian airliner’s crash was caused by an explosive device, debkafile’s
counterterrorism sources repeat that they cannot rule out the possibility of a
missile. The argument made on Wednesday in Washington and London that terrorist
organizations do not have missiles capable of downing such planes is are simply
incorrect.
ISIS-Sinai’s possession of an advanced ground-air missile system does not only
endanger planes in the peninsula’s airspace, but also those aircraft flying over
the Suez Canal as well as parts of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel. One of the
Egyptian president’s main purposes in his London visit was to try and persuade
Prime Minister Cameron to join an Egyptian military operation against Ansar al
Sharia in Libya and so eliminate a major prop and arms supplier for ISIS-Sinai.
He does not hold out much hope of success.
Saudi U.N. envoy optimistic
about Yemen talks
AFP, U.N. Thursday, 5 November 2015/The Saudi ambassador to the United Nations
said on Wednesday he was optimistic that a new round of peace talks for Yemen
will get off the ground this month after many weeks of preparation. U.N. envoy
Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed has been laying the groundwork for talks between the
Saudi-backed Yemeni government and Houthi militias who seized the capital Sanaa
last year. "We are optimistic. We are hopeful that the talks will take place,"
Saudi Ambassador Abdallah al-Mouallimi said at a meeting with leaders of the
Yemeni community in the United States. Mouallimi said Houthi militias had sought
to sidestep demands in a U.N. resolution that they withdraw from territory
seized in their campaign, but that they had "recently backed down" and were
ready to negotiate a pullback. Saudi Arabia launched an air campaign in March to
push back the Houthi offensive. Yemen's Ambassador Khaled Alyemany said the
agenda for the peace talks should be finalized this week and that the U.N. envoy
will travel to New York to announce the talks next week. Ould Cheikh Ahmed told
AFP recently that he expected the new round to begin some time between November
10 and 15. Alyemany said negotiations would focus on a gradual withdrawal from
the capital Sanaa and other areas held by the Houthis. "This is the picture that
we have, and it's a positive picture," he said. A U.N. bid to launch peace talks
in June failed over demands for a Houthi withdrawal from seized territory, but
this time, much effort has been put in ensuring there is agreement on the
agenda. The Huthis overran Sanaa in September 2014 and went on to battle for
control of several regions, aided by renegade troops loyal to ousted president
Ali Abdullah Saleh. In July, loyalist forces backed by the Saudi-led Arab
coalition, evicted the rebels from five southern provinces, and have since set
their sights on the capital.
Kurd rebels end unilateral
ceasefire in Turkey
Reuters, Istanbul/Diyarbakir Thursday, 5 November 2015/Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
militants have ended an unilateral ceasefire in Turkey which they declared last
month, a news agency close to them cited the PKK umbrella group as saying on
Thursday. “The unilateral halt to hostilities has come to an end with the
(Turkish ruling) AKP's war policy and the latest attacks,” the Firat news agency
quoted the statement as saying. The group had declared the ceasefire on Oct. 10
ahead of a Nov. 1 parliamentary election. Turkish army kills 16 Kurdish rebels.
Meanwhile, 18 people were killed in clashes with the military in southeastern
Turkey on Thursday, lifting this week’s death toll to almost 40 in the mainly
Kurdish area and dampening prospects for a ceasefire. The military killed 16 PKK
rebels in a rural area near the town of Yuksekova near the Iraqi border, the
General Staff said in a statement on its website. The army killed 15 PKK
fighters and lost two soldiers there on Wednesday. In the town of Silvan, where
authorities imposed a round-the-clock curfew on three districts this week, two
men were shot to death in street clashes, security sources said. Two others were
killed earlier this week. The ruling AK Party regained its parliamentary
majority in an election last Sunday, five months after it was deprived of
single-party rule. In July, the long-running conflict against the
autonomy-seeking Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) reignited. President Tayyip
Erdogan, who had overseen a historic peace process that collapsed in July, vowed
on Wednesday to continue battling the PKK until every last fighter was
“liquidated.” An opinion poll by Ipsos released Wednesday said 13 percent of the
electorate switched their votes ahead of the snap election due to fears of
mounting PKK violence. The PKK, based mainly in northern Iraq, took up arms in
1984 and has scaled back its demands in recent years to greater political and
cultural rights. It also has deployed some 1,400 militants to fight against
Islamic State alongside U.S.-allied Syrian Kurds, Erdogan has said.
Turkey says plans anti-ISIS offensive in near future
By AFP, Ankara Thursday, 5 November 2015/Turkey has said it is planning to
launch a military campaign soon against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria
(ISIS) group which is accused of carrying out the deadliest attack in the
country’s history. “We have plans to act militarily against them in the coming
days,” Foreign Minister Feridun Sinirlioglu told a conference in the northern
Iraqi city of Erbil on Wednesday, describing the jihadists as a “clear and
present threat”. “You will see. We should all stand together against this
danger,” he said, according to the Anatolia news agency, but did not elaborate
further. Turkish prosecutors say a sleeper cell acting on the orders of the ISIS
group in Syria carried out the twin bombings last month on a peace rally in
Ankara which killed 102 people and wounded 500. They said the extremists had
wanted to disrupt Sunday’s election, which swept the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) back to power. Turkey’s NATO allies had long chastised
Ankara for not taking a tougher line against ISIS as the extremists seized
chunks of northern Iraq and Syria right up to the Turkish border. But following
months of Western pressure, Turkey became a full member of the U.S.-led
coalition against ISIS in August and now allows American jets to use its
Incirlik air base for raids, potentially making it a more likely target for
jihadist attacks. Turkey has also rounded up dozens of ISIS suspects in recent
weeks in police raids across the country. Sinirlioglu did not specify if
Ankara’s action would target ISIS militants in Turkey or in Syria. “The
occupation of one third of Iraq, and also vast areas of Syria, by Daesh has
undoubtedly created one of the most serious challenge,” he said, using another
name for ISIS. “It has threatened our security and, although the Daesh advance
has been checked with the support of the international effort which we are a
part of, the threat is far from over,” he added. “On the contrary, Daesh
continues to constitute a clear and present threat, aimed directly at our way of
life, our security, prosperity and stability.”
Turkey: Where Ice Cream Can
Be More Dangerous than Bombs
Burak Bekdil/Gatestone
Institute/November 05/15
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6820/turkey-ice-cream
Turkey has detained more people for
tweeting against the government than for being members of the Islamic State. —
Sezgin Tanrikulu, a Kurd, and a leading opposition member of parliament.
"Why did you all go to eat ice cream after prayers?" — Police interrogator in
Usak, Turkey.
Sometimes one small incident best tells how countries can go insane. The
pro-government Islamist psyche in Turkey has no limits in defying logic and
humanity.
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's native province, Konya, in central Anatolia,
has traditionally been an Islamist stronghold -- before and after Turkey's
ruling Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (AKP), was founded in
2001. In parliamentary elections on June 7, AKP won 65% of the vote in Konya,
compared to 40.7% it won on a national scale.
On October 13, three days after a twin suicide bomb attack in Turkey's capital,
Ankara, killed more than 100 Kurds and pro-Kurdish, leftist and secular Turks,
Konya hosted a Euro 2016 football qualifier between Turkey and Iceland. Before
the kick-off, both teams stood in silence for one minute to protest the bomb
attack -- a typical gesture to respect the victims. Sadly, the moment of silence
was marred by whistles and jeers: apparently the football fans of Konya were
protesting the victims, not their jihadist killers. This response was perfectly
in line with what the government has been doing since the attack took place.
The police found that the perpetrators belonged to a Turkish jihadist group
linked to the Islamic State (IS, ISIS or ISIL). But Davutoglu insists that the
bombing was an act of "cocktail terror" bringing together two hostile groups:
jihadists and Kurdish militants who fight against each other in Syria. The prime
minister cannot admit that jihadists could bring carnage to the heart of Ankara.
His government quickly instituted a gag order on the bombing, and told
journalists to shut up. "Is it so hard to say it was an ISIL attack," prominent
columnist Murat Yetkin asked in his column. It is. Because: a) It would be just
too embarrassing for an Islamist government to be hit by jihadists whom it had
so generously supported in the past, and b) it would be risky to say publicly
that Islamist Turks killed their own people just weeks before a critical
election and in a country where Islamist sentiments are strong -- as observed at
the kick-off ceremony in Konya.
A little bit of investigative journalism unveiled the Turkish reluctance in
confronting IS, although Ankara said it already joined the allied campaign
against jihadists in Syria. Tolga Tanis, a Washington-based Turkish journalist
for the daily Hurriyet, wrote in his column on Oct. 19:
"And while Turkey was not targeting ISIL, and focusing on other things, names
related to ISIL conducted the biggest bombing attack in the history of the
Turkish republic ... I talked to two different sources at the Pentagon. The
first official said, 'In the beginning they [the Turks] joined the operation,
but then for a long time they did not [participate in it].' In other words,
during the month of September, while Turkey earmarked its resources to the fight
with the [the Kurdish] PKK, it did not even try to hit ISIL. But the first
initial trials became unsuccessful. The second official pointed to the political
dimension of the issue and said, 'The priority for Turks is the PKK ...' In
other words, Turkey on the one hand used in the wrong way its resources by not
focusing on ISIL and on the other, was unsuccessful in hitting ISIL targets."
It was not surprising that Turkey has joined half-hearted only three US-led
airstrikes against IS.
At the hands of power-greedy Islamists, Turkey continues to be a bad joke, the
ridiculous cradle of black humor. Sezgin Tanrikulu, a leading opposition member
of parliament (and a Kurd himself) said that Turkey has detained more people for
tweeting against the government than for being members of the Islamic State. He
forcefully reminded everyone that Turkey did not categorize IS as a terrorist
organization until a court order to that effect on July 15. "Without
[government] protection this massacre [in Ankara] would not have happened," he
said.
In the same way the news of whistles and jeers for the terror victims sounded
surreal, the news on a police operation targeting "dangerous terrorists" looked
amusing if not utterly ridiculous. The police, who failed to prevent the bombing
attack in Ankara, detained 25 businessmen in the western province of Usak on
suspicion of terrorism. During their interrogation, the police asked them
questions including: "Why did you go to prayers together?," "Why did you all go
to eat ice cream after prayers?" and "Why did you go abroad 20 years ago?"
Welcome to Turkey, where ice cream can be more dangerous than bombs.
Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and
a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
© 2015 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. No part of the Gatestone
website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without
the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.
"We Did What We Learned:
Attacking Christians"
Raymond Ibrahim/November 5, 2015/Gatestone Institute
Muslim Persecution of Christians, August 2015
http://eliasbejjaninews.com/2015/11/05/raymond-ibrahim-we-did-what-we-learned-attacking-christians/
Western "mainstream media" and academia continued to exonerate Islam in
deceptive op-eds, such as the Huffington Post's "ISIS Violates The Consensus Of
Mainstream Islam By Persecuting Christians," by Qasim Rashid, a recipient of
Saudi largesse, by way of Harvard University's Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center.
A 12-year-old girl, raped by an Islamic State fighter, was told that "what he
was about to do was not a sin" because she "practiced a religion other than
Islam."
"In school I only learned about Islam. Parts of our teaching were about
destroying Christianity. So we did what we learned, by attacking Christians ...
Our teachers would tell us every time there was a new church in town and we were
told to go and attack the people and destroy the church. So that is what we
did." — Tofik, a former Muslim cleric who converted to Christianity.
Throughout the month of August, the Obama administration and the so-called
mainstream media kept insisting that Islam does not promote the persecution of
Christians -- all the while ignoring the direct testimonies of those who have
undergone it.
According to Chaldean Archbishop Bashar Warda,
All the statements [by U.S. government and media] have not condemned strongly
what damage it [persecution of Christians] is doing. What they are saying is
just "This is not the true Islam. This is violating the picture of Islam." The
issue for them is the image of Islam, but none of these statements speak about
the victims, about what has been done to the victims, they are not even
mentioned. And that is one of the questions our people have. [Author's
emphasis].
Warda added that persecuted Christians are "being denied visas, while others who
have participated [in the violence] or at least were silent, can go."Father
Douglas al-Bazi, an Iraqi Catholic parish priest from Erbil, who still carries
the torture scars he received nine years earlier at the hands of jihadis,
denounced the Western refusal to accept reality about Islam: I'm proud to be an
Iraqi, I love my country. But my [Muslim] country is not proud that I'm part of
it. What is happening to my people [Christians] is nothing other than genocide.
I beg you: do not call it a conflict. It's genocide... When Islam lives amidst
you, the situation might appear acceptable. But when one lives amidst Muslims
[as a minority], everything becomes impossible.... Wake up! The cancer is at
your door. They will destroy you. We, the Christians of the Middle East are the
only group that has seen the face of evil: Islam. Meanwhile, Western "mainstream
media" and academia continued to exonerate Islam in deceptive op-eds, such as
the Huffington Post's "ISIS Violates The Consensus Of Mainstream Islam By
Persecuting Christians," by Qasim Rashid, a recipient of Saudi largesse, by way
of Harvard University's Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Center. The rest of August's
roundup of Muslim persecution of Christians around the world includes, but is
not limited to, the following accounts:
Islamic State: Savagery and Sex Slavery
Mokhls Youssef Batk, an Iraqi Christian, was blinded by the Islamic State (ISIS
or IS) after he refused to convert to Islam.
The "caliphate" threatened that captive Christian women would become sex slaves
unless they were ransomed with money. It posted images of three Assyrian
Christian women who were previously abducted. The women hold pieces of paper on
which their names and a date -- July 27, 2015 -- are written: "It is feared they
will be sold to ISIS fighters if a ransom is not paid for them."A 12-year-old
girl, raped by an Islamic State fighter, was told that "what he was about to do
was not a sin" because she "practiced a religion other than Islam." IS also made
clear in a 34-page manual released by its Research and Fatwa Department that
"sex with Christian and Jewish women who were captured in battle is also
permissible."
Jihad on Muslim Converts to Christianity
Uganda: After he learned that his family had converted to Christianity, a Muslim
man went berserk. Issa Kasoono beat, strangled, and left his wife for dead. He
also severely beat their two teenage sons for the crime of apostasy. The
youngest son managed to flee and bring help from the church where, three months
earlier, the Muslim mother and sons had accepted Christ. Due to injuries from
the strangling, Kadondi, the mother, lost her voice, has difficulty eating, and
requires extensive surgery. According to a local source: "The mother and Ibrahim
[older son] Kasoono were seriously injured. Ibrahim was hit with a blunt object,
had his right arm broken and has stomach pains, while the mother was strangled
and sustained neck and throat injuries." Although Uganda's population is 85%
Christian and 11% Muslim, attacks on converts to Christianity are on the rise,
and include the recent murder by poisoning of a mother, and the gang rape of a
teenage daughter of a Christian pastor.
Somalia: A Muslim convert to Christianity (name withheld) managed to escape from
Al Shabaab -- the dominant Islamic front -- but only after the jihadis chopped
off four fingers from his right hand while interrogating him about his
conversion. Another man, 31-year-old Sharif, fled his home after his conversion
to Christianity was exposed: "My association with a visiting white missionary
landed me in trouble... I feel sad because I cannot see my family, because if I
return back to Somaliland, then the government will arrest me." His wife and
four children -- aged 8, 6, 4, and 1 -- have also relocated to an undisclosed
town: "I am not sure what will happen to my wife and four children. I am praying
that God will provide for their basic needs. Pray for me that one day I will see
them."
Pakistan: Khurram Naveed, 33, a Christian man, and Sobia, 25, a Muslim woman,
are on the run. Sobia discovered Christianity through Khurram and decided to be
baptized. Since they got married and had two daughters, her parents, Muslim
neighbors, and imams have repeatedly tried to convert them to Islam or face the
consequences. In the words of Khurram:
"Since we got married we have had to change places many times... Wherever we go,
people ask about my beloved wife's conversion. Sometimes, imams try to force us
to convert to Islam, issuing terrible threats.... My wife, I and our children
have had to flee from place to place. We feel threatened as soon as people find
out about my wife's Muslim past. However, running from one place to another is
not easy. There are so many problems.... Until now I have to change job six
times, and finding new employment is not easy. But we need security for our life
and we ask for help from the people of God.
Horn of Africa: A former Muslim cleric, who converted to Christianity and is
known as Tofik, explained in an interview what Islamic preachers teach about
Christians in mosques and what such converts can expect. For the previous 24
years, he had trained to become an imam at an Islamic madrasa: "In school I only
learned about Islam. Parts of our teaching were about destroying Christianity.
So we did what we learned, by attacking Christians once we finished our
training."
Tofik said he was taught that Christians are evil and that he and other students
should steal from and kill them: "We beat them, attacked the church and burnt
their Bibles. ... Our teachers would tell us every time there was a new church
in town and we were told to go and attack the people and destroy the church. So
that is what we did." Due to a series of dreams, he eventually embraced Christ.
News of his apostasy spread quickly, especially among his own tribe:
They reacted by coming to my home saying, 'This brother is dead.' In our
culture, when someone dies their property is shared. So they destroyed my house,
setting it on fire, and they took my cattle, and the remainder of my property.
They then falsely accused me of burning another house, so I was jailed and taken
to court. It was only in the court process that the witnesses proved their
dishonesty by having contradicting testimonies.
After being released from jail, Tofik continued preaching Christ and even
inspired more than 200 people to convert:
"As a result local villagers were upset. So again, they attacked me physically
and burned my house.... The attackers assumed I was dead, so they threw me into
the compound. Then they looted the small kiosk I owned and proceeded to loot and
burn my children's properties. They said they have killed the lead figure and
now our area is free of his activities. They started shouting and singing."
Jihad on Christian "Blasphemers"
Egypt: Medhat Ishak, a 35-year-old Christian, was arrested for handing out
Bibles to Muslims outside El-Arab Mall in Sixth of October City. Mall security
guards turned him over to national police, who accused him of evangelizing. The
day after his arrest, a judge amended the charge against Ishak to "defamation of
a revealed religion" and ordered him held for 15 days. After his term ended, the
judge extended his detention for another 15 days. Ishak's attorney, Rafik Rafaat,
suspects the judge will keep extending the detention order, in violation of
Egyptian law, until the case falls out of the public eye. Then he will hand
Ishak a prison sentence of one to five years, in accordance with the defamation
charge. This is because there are currently no charges against "evangelism"
under Egyptian law. Handing out Bibles or even promoting Christianity does not
constitute "defaming" Islam. "The word 'blasphemy' means that he was insulting
the other religion [Islam], but he didn't do that, and he didn't talk about
Islam or prophets or anything like that to be accused of blasphemy," said the
Christian's lawyer. "So, now we are surprised that the attorney general accused
him of blasphemy when he did not commit any act of blasphemy."
Pakistan: Protestant Christian Pastor Aftab Gill and three other Christians from
Gujrat were accused of blasphemy for having used the word rasool ("messenger" or
"apostle") during an event made public by their community, the Biblical Church
of God. Local Muslims grew angry, saying that, as rasool is one of the Muslim
prophet Muhammad's attributes, Christian use of the word is blasphemous. But
Christian activists say that because the word simply means apostle and appears
in Urdu Bibles as such, it was used in that generic sense, and that the
Christians were not trying to blaspheme. Muslims were nevertheless about to burn
Christian homes and a church, but police managed to restore calm before the
situation escalated. Unitan Gill, Pastor Aftab's younger brother, said that
local Muslim businessmen are jealous of the Christian family's success in
running a local grocery store, and that it was Muslim grocers who brought this
matter to the attention of the police.
Islamic State Destruction of Syrian Churches
The Islamic State "caliphate" released a video showing its militants razing the
ancient Mar Elian monastery to the ground. In the video, the jihadis can be seen
removing the remains of Saint Elian, after whom the monastery was named, from
their ancient stone sarcophagus, and then gleefully desecrating his bones. The
church was built on the spot where Saint Elian was killed by his father, a Roman
officer, for refusing to renounce Christ. Earlier, IS abducted an estimated 250
Christians from the monastery and its surrounding villages, many of whom were
women and children.
Islamic State jihadists in the midst of destroying the ancient Mar Elian
monastery in Syria. On Sunday, August 23, a rain of mortars fell on a Damascus
neighborhood. Two shells hit the roof of the Maronite church. Nine people were
killed and about fifty were wounded. A nearby Catholic parish was also damaged.
According to Maronite Archbishop Samir Nassar, "Part of the war in Syria is to
live under indiscriminate bombing, a kind of Russian roulette which is always
unpredictable." Survivors tell the archbishop that those who die are better off,
because they "will not have to see and live this cruel tragedy without end."
Pakistani Dhimmitude
The Christian minorities of the "Land of the Pure" continued to be treated as
third class, unwanted "citizens."Muslims attacked and severely beat a Christian
family after a Muslim boy mocked a Christian boy by saying that his pregnant
sister-in-law will "give birth as their cows and buffalos do." The Christian boy
reciprocated with an insult, and the Muslim boy began to beat him. Later in the
evening, the Muslim boy and his brothers went to the Christians' household and
attacked the entire family. While beating the pregnant Christian women, they
yelled, "You cannot be pregnant without permission of Muslim master who pays
you." After visiting the family, a human rights group stated that the "Christian
Community is facing all sorts of discrimination and disgrace from their land
Lords, neighbors, or where ever they live or work. Christians have no right to
respect, education, free living and now they are under observation/mockery of
giving birth, now our majority brothers [Muslims] will decide whether the
Christian women will give birth respectfully or like animals."
As torrential flooding spanned across various regions of Pakistan and washed
away thousands of homes, Christians in Kasur received little humanitarian aid
and were left to starve. Their two options -- to receive help from Muslims or
the government -- was either to convert to Islam or willingly accept becoming
modern-day slaves. According to Wilson Chowdhry, the president of the British
Pakistani Christian Association, while Muslims in the region have benefited from
temporary shelter, clean water and food provided by governmental agencies and
Muslim charities, Christians have been left without those bare necessities and
medication needed to fight illnesses. Said Chowdhry: We are aware that this
community has previously been offered aid from Muslim charities if they convert
but they never accept conversion. They hold strong to their faith. They believe
God will be their provider. These families have literally been struggling
without food. Churches have opened up their doors but can't provide them much
aid because the churches themselves in the region are struggling. We are talking
about a very rural part of Pakistan. Chowdhry added that as desperation started
to get the best of the Christian population in Kasur, many ended up signing
bonded labor contracts in order to receive aid from Muslim landlords. In a
separate incident, a few days after a Christian man stopped two Muslim brothers
from harassing Christian girls on their way to church, the two brothers broke
into the Christian's home, and beat and shot him. The man was later taken to a
hospital, where he was reported in critical condition.
Boko Haram's Slaughter of Christians
Jihadists from the Islamic organization Boko Haram slit the throats of sixteen
Christian fishermen on the shores of Lake Chad in the Nigerian state of Borno.
The increase in such incidents is supposedly in retaliation for the Chadian
government's efforts against Boko Haram around Lake Chad. According to Bishop
Ramolo, "The Chadian President Idriss Deby has declared open war against the
Islamists, and these acts represent an attempt at revenge."A Christian leader,
stabbed in April by rampaging young Muslims in Kaduna state, suffered a relapse
after an initial recovery. Pastor Emmanuel Danjuma of the Redeemed Christian
Church of God, while visiting a Muslim-majority region of Nigeria, was attacked
by Muslims reportedly angry about election results. "They called me an infidel
and attacked me." The pastor was clubbed and stabbed several times. A village
elder apparently ordered the youths to stop. "I don't know what happened then,
as next I found myself in a hospital in Saminaka town. After a few days, my
situation deteriorated and I was transferred to this Christian hospital."
About this Series
While not all, or even most, Muslims are involved, persecution of Christians is
expanding. "Muslim Persecution of Christians" was developed to collate some — by
no means all — of the instances of persecution that surface each month. It
documents what the mainstream media often fails to report.
It posits that such persecution is not random but systematic, and takes place in
all languages, ethnicities and locations.
http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6795/we-learned-attacking-christians
**Raymond Ibrahim is author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War in
Christians (published by Regnery in cooperation with Gatestone Institute, April
2013).
What Would Rabin Do?
David Makovsky/Politico/November 05/15
Twenty years later, the assassinated prime minister's hopes for Palestinian
separation still resonate.
The twentieth anniversary of Yitzhak Rabin's assassination on November 4 is a
dolorous reminder that the main issue he tried so hard to tackle -- and was
ultimately murdered over -- remains unresolved. Even as President Obama and
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meet for the first time in over a year
on Monday at the White House, the current wave of stabbings has reignited the
question of Israeli-Palestinian peace.
And that in turn has given rise to a new meme among pundits in honor of Rabin,
the prime minister who was shot to death in 1995 by a right-wing Jewish
extremist seeking to stop a peace deal with Palestinians: WWRD. What would Rabin
do?
While the Israeli-Palestinian issue has been eclipsed by violence in Syria and
elsewhere in the region, the latest violence inside Israel makes it hard not to
wonder whether Rabin, were he alive, might still be capable of inspiring people
over the possibilities of peace.
Of course, there are limitations to WWRD. Rabin did not have to cope with the
rebuilding of a trust that today has shattered due to a variety of reasons. (It
has been argued that if he was alive, the trust would remain intact, but this is
unclear.) He did not have to deal with the Arab world that is preoccupied with
other conflicts including the chaos emanating from Syria and the broader Sunni-Shia
strife.
Nonetheless, the current round of stabbings of Israelis by Palestinians would
not have fazed Rabin. As a candidate to return to the premiership, Rabin was no
stranger to Palestinian killings. In 1992, he edged out Yitzhak Shamir soon
after a fifteen-year-old, Helena Rapp, was fatally stabbed in Bat Yam. In the
aftermath, he said he wanted a separate entity from the Palestinians. He had no
illusions that peace would be easy, but he felt that Shamir, his political
opponent, had no answer, given that he did not want to divide the land.
Rabin's belief in separation meant that he was not going to wait for a
millennial peace that would solve all issues at once. The idea of separation was
that Israelis and Palestinians required their own political entities and this
was the overriding objective, even if the remaining issues of the conflict
(Jerusalem, refugees) had yet to be resolved. He believed it was not healthy for
Israeli decision-making to be held hostage by perpetual gridlock. After all,
Zionism came about because the Jews were committed to transforming their
predicament and refused to be paralyzed.
Politically Rabin was a centrist who might be best characterized as a security
dove. He understood there was no military solution to a political conflict. As a
war hero who helped to win the stunning Six Day War in 1967 and as a defense
minister between 1984 and 1990, Rabin definitely had an appreciation for
Israel's military force, but he saw its limits as well. At his inaugural speech
at the Knesset as premier in 1992, Rabin demonstrated his understanding that
Israel existed in a wider strategic context. The world was changing after the
end of the Cold War and Gulf War and Israel needed to redefine strength. Rabin
dispelled the notion that if you are weak, you cannot afford to compromise, and
if you are strong, you do not need to compromise. As Israel's Mr. Security,
Rabin believed that Israel could compromise from a position of strength. Current
Israeli security officials who know the military strength of Israel and the
weakness of its adversaries say Rabin's comments are as true today as they were
at that time.
Even more, he saw military action of any kind as a last resort. As a journalist
who interviewed him countless times, I remember him often saying how important
it was for him to be able to look into the eyes of mothers and tell them he had
tried all options before sending their sons into battle.
At the heart of Rabin's character was intellectual honesty, coupled with a
strong analytical bent. Rabin's analysis led him to believe that the "all or
nothing" approach to peace with the Palestinians was self-defeating, and that
one had to move in increments. When I once asked him why he did not try to solve
all the issues with the Palestinians in the secret Oslo negotiations, he
declared this was not possible and it was better to solve what was solvable
rather than merely lament that a grand deal could not be struck. He felt in
order for Israel to be both Jewish and democratic, it needed to move toward the
goal of separation, even if it could not achieve a grand peace all in one leap.
Rabin's incrementalism would give way not long after his death to even more
ambitious efforts to solve the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The U.S.
would spearhead three such major efforts: Camp David/Clinton Plan (2000), the
Annapolis process (2007/2008), and the Kerry Initiative (2013/2014). Yet for
differing reasons, the grand deal remained elusive.
While one is tempted to say that if Rabin were alive there would be peace today,
this seems uncertain at best. His relationship with Yasser Arafat was never
strong. More critically, given Rabin's policy positions -- at least the ones he
would publicly articulate -- it is far from certain that he could have closed
the gaps, especially when it came to security arrangements and Jerusalem. In his
last Knesset speech, and at times beforehand, Rabin emphasized that Israel
should retain security control of the eastern frontier of a Palestinian entity
in the Jordan Valley and said that he did not want to divide Jerusalem. He even
said he envisioned the Palestinians having "less than a state," but his views
may have evolved had he lived. (The gaps between Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu, who says he supports a two-state solution, and Palestinian President
Abbas on these same issues make a grand deal any time soon look very unlikely.)
However, the key distinction between Rabin and Netanyahu is that Rabin was
committed to telling his public -- as he often did -- in an unambiguous fashion
that the status quo was very bad for Israel, and it needed to be addressed.
In the Mideast, whenever it is all or nothing, it is almost always nothing. But
inaction also exacts a price. The alternative to incremental change is a
grinding status quo where Israel -- fairly or not -- faces increasing isolation
internationally and a de facto binational reality, which puts at risk the idea
of Israel as a nation state of the Jewish people that also guarantees equal
rights to all citizens. Moreover, a lack of territorial success is bound to mean
the eighty-year-old Abbas is accused of failure by Palestinian radicals.
If one cannot achieve the goal in one leap, Rabin's experience in 1993 could
provide an attainable model. It might be best to focus on the settler dimension
of the West Bank, while leaving the hard security, refugee, and Jerusalem issues
for the future.
It is interesting that Yitzhak Herzog, leader of the Labor Party once led by
Rabin, has referred lately to Rabin's idea of "separation," which the slain
prime minister often talked of without explicitly endorsing a Palestinian state.
In his recent major Knesset policy speech, Herzog sounded more pessimistic than
in the past about reaching a grand peace deal with Abbas. While Herzog would
prefer that Israelis and Palestinians work together toward an agreement on
delineating a territorial boundary in the West Bank, he seems to be suggesting
that Israel should pursue a West Bank pullout of non-bloc settlers (the 20
percent of the settlers who live in 92 percent of the West Bank east of the
security barrier), if an agreement is not possible.
In Rabin's last policy speech to the Knesset, shortly before his death, he
declared, "We know the chances. We know the risks. We will do our best to expand
the chances and reduce the risks." He could not reduce the risks to himself
personally, but his legacy continues to be about putting country first.
So given today's paralysis, WWRD? It's impossible to say for certain, but we
know he would want to do something to move beyond today's paralysis to avoid the
slide toward permanent binationalism with the Palestinians -- which to Rabin was
a direct threat to Israel's character.
**David Makovsky is the Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and director of the Project
on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute.
The Manama Dialogue:
Searching for Unity in the Face of Chaos
James F. Jeffrey/Washington Institute/November 05/15
The solidarity expressed at the latest regional gathering of senior U.S.,
European, and Middle Eastern defense officials, diplomats, journalists, and
analysts was encouraging, though some aspects of Washington's policies in Syria
and elsewhere still need clarification.
From October 30 to November 1, the International Institute for Strategic Studies
(IISS) convened its annual Manama Dialogue, the flagship forum for Middle
Eastern defense and security officials and their foreign partners. This year's
dialogue sought to inventory the multiple crises shaking the region and
demonstrate unity amid threats from seemingly all directions. One result was a
sense of solidarity, at least among government officials, as well as a new
reluctance to criticize the United States or the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
countries for the unhappy state of affairs. The main takeaway message was clear:
"Things are so serious that we all have to hang together."
Indeed, the 2015 dialogue took place in the most dramatic regional security
environment since the conferences began over a decade ago. While last year's
gathering focused on the critical ISIS threat, this year's discussions were held
in the shadow of many other stunning developments -- the Iran nuclear deal,
Russia's military engagement in Syria and de facto alliance with Iran, the
Saudi-led intervention in Yemen, political crisis in Turkey, potential conflict
between Israel and the Palestinians, and continued fears of American withdrawal
from the region or security rapprochement with Tehran. In various ways, the
conference demonstrated a new sense of unity and purpose among the United
States, its European allies, and the GCC states, four of whose six leaders had
voted with their feet by avoiding the Obama administration's Camp David summit
mere months ago in protest of the pending Iran deal.
HIGH ATTENDANCE
The attention that conferences like this generate beyond military officers,
defense firm representatives, and GCC officials typically signals the level of
concern among the states involved and the international media. This year's
unusually high attendance by senior officials and journalists suggests deep
concern. Egyptian president Abdul Fattah al-Sisi opened the proceedings with a
keynote speech. Although his remarks were routine -- and perhaps more in line
with the worldview of his GCC financiers than with his actual policies back home
-- his presence alone demonstrated the appeal of this year's conference.
The United States also sent a strong delegation led by CENTCOM head Gen. Lloyd
Austin and Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, while the European
officials in attendance included Germany's impressive defense minister Ursula
von der Leyen and British foreign secretary Philip Hammond. Among the usual
gaggle of Middle Eastern officials was Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir,
who came directly from the Syria talks in Vienna and was easily the most dynamic
presence at the event.
SYRIA, NOT ISIS, IS THE MOST PRESSING PROBLEM
The Syrian crisis was the dialogue's most salient theme, with a prominent role
given to Khaled Khoja, president of the National Coalition of Syrian
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. On that note, Jubeir provided a detailed
description of the Vienna talks. Although he was upbeat, he made clear that the
talks had not achieved any breakthrough, and that Saudi officials still believe
the solution boils down to two ultimatums: "When does Bashar al-Assad go?" and
"When do the 'occupying forces' (his definition: Iran and Russia) leave?" On
other Syria issues, he indicated room for compromise. But he insisted on a clear
timeline -- up to six months for a new government without Assad to be formed,
and eighteen to twenty-four months for that new government to produce a new
constitution and hold elections. He characterized the Iranian and Russian
position at Vienna as follows: Assad will only go if he is voted out in those
elections, an argument that Jubeir roundly rejected.
Blinken was also strong on the "Assad must go" theme but remained general on the
details. He presented the standard Obama administration line that the Russians
were not succeeding in Syria and would soon find themselves bogged down in high
costs and fading rapport with the Arab world. Many in the audience challenged
him here -- when he was accused of "subcontracting" the Syria job to the
Russians (i.e., in the belief that combat fatigue would eventually compel them
to compromise on Assad's fate), he cited the supposedly potent indirect effect
that new U.S.-trained anti-ISIS fighters would have on the Assad regime. When
pressed, however, he failed to clarify what exactly Washington's policy would be
if such fighters were to fight Assad's forces directly. He and Jubeir both
suggested that the Saudi and U.S. positions on major issues at Vienna were very
close, though other views sourced to Turkish officials suggested that there is
more divergence, with Washington taking a softer line on when Assad should go.
EMPHASIZING IRAN'S AGGRESSION, NOT THE NUCLEAR DEAL
Despite the specific focus on Syria, the real worry for most attendees was the
threat emanating from Iran's aggressiveness in the wake of the nuclear deal (or,
as Jubeir described it, Tehran's "thirty-year record of aggression"). Russia's
intervention garnered heavy criticism in large part because many saw it as a
deliberate empowerment of Iran's regional designs. Blinken confirmed that the
United States was ready to counter destabilizing Iranian activity throughout the
Middle East, citing numerous examples of cooperation with regional partners on
military, intelligence, and diplomatic matters, including Yemen.
The nuclear deal itself received little attention. Jubeir put the issue at least
temporarily to rest by claiming that the agreement had dealt with the Iranian
nuclear threat "for the moment." For his part, Blinken asserted that America's
role in placing nuclear restraints on Iran was further proof of its engagement
on regional security. He also asserted that the agreement was solely
transactional and would not engender U.S. reluctance to confront Iran.
AMERICA IS BACK -- MAYBE
While skepticism about U.S. intentions and staying power ran through the
audience, Blinken worked hard to emphasize Washington's engagement. His message
was blurred somewhat when he twice invoked the administration shibboleth that
those who call for a more active American military role in the region are
essentially longing for a new Iraq quagmire (i.e., when he spoke of
"large-scale, open-ended interventions" and "vast unintended consequences").
Nevertheless, he and General Austin wasted no opportunity to reinforce America's
commitment and presence.
Here again it was Jubeir who most effectively argued the "America is still with
us" theme. He rejected arguments that the temporary withdrawal of the last U.S.
aircraft carrier in the region signaled a wider pull-out, and spent considerable
time echoing Blinken's praise for the U.S.-GCC military and intelligence
cooperation that has flowed from the Camp David summit (which King Salman
pointedly did not attend). He even asserted that bilateral cooperation against
Iran had reached unprecedented levels. Recent U.S. military moves -- retaking
Kunduz, keeping forces in Afghanistan, having Special Forces participate in a
raid in northern Iraq, and the decision to deploy Special Forces on the ground
in Syria -- undoubtedly played a role in shaping this mood of solidarity.
ISIS NOT FORGOTTEN
The dialogue devoted considerable time and speaker power to ISIS and the violent
Islamic extremism that feeds it. Foreign Secretary Hammond was particularly
effective on this theme, and Minister von der Leyen, who has made a crusade out
of pushing her country to provide military assistance against the group, made an
exceptionally positive impression. Most of the formal and informal military
briefings led by General Austin also focused on defeating ISIS. Iraq's struggle
against the group was recognized in various ways as well -- the country's
foreign and defense ministers were invited to speak (though the former had to
cancel), and many attendees praised Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's internal
reforms and efforts against ISIS, with Jubeir promising to dispatch the
kingdom's long-withheld ambassador to Baghdad "within days." Even Afghanistan,
often an afterthought at Arab-centric gatherings, was well represented when its
foreign minister joined a panel on combating extremism.
POTENTIAL DISCORD ON ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN ISSUES
Policymakers will have to keep an eye on one problem that surfaced at Manama --
despite the plethora of more urgent items on the agenda, many of the Arab
defense representatives placed undue emphasis on the disturbing but relatively
limited violence between Israelis and Palestinians, and unfortunately they were
echoed by some of the European attendees. Although Blinken affirmed U.S.
readiness to reengage if the parties are serious about peace, he effectively
countered the widespread assertions that "everything is Israel's fault." Still,
the concerns expressed in Manama underlined the reality that America's vital
cooperation with its regional partners against unprecedented chaos can be
affected by what happens in Israel and the West Bank.
**James Jeffrey is the Philip Solondz Distinguished Fellow at The Washington
Institute and former U.S. ambassador to Iraq and Turkey.
An Arab boycott of
Palestine too
Abdulrahman al-Rashed/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
Palestinian citizens of Israel cannot enter Arab countries. This is how they are
rewarded for holding on to their land and tolerating decades of Israeli
oppression. It is prohibited to sell their products in Arab markets, while
Jewish Israelis can visit Arab countries if they carry other passports.
Israel prohibits Palestinians in the occupied territories from leaving the West
Bank and Gaza Strip, while most Arab governments prohibit them from entering
their countries unless they carry Egyptian or Jordanian passports. Most Arab
governments prohibit their citizens from visiting Palestinians in the occupied
territories to support their tourism or benefit from their services. A Saudi
football team recently refused to play a football match in the West Bank because
it is considered as dealing with Israel and recognizing the latter's authority.
Arab League
This strange and shocking treatment of Palestinians actually has legal
justifications. Arab League decisions oblige member governments not to deal with
Israel or with anything it controls. Over the course of 60 years, this has
harmed the Palestinians and their cause, and completely failed to harm Israel or
its occupation. It has harmed the Palestinians as much as Israel has harmed
them, sometimes more so. Arab decisions have impoverished and besieged the
Palestinians in their occupied lands, and in refugee camps in Lebanon, Syria and
Jordan, where they live on the little support provided to them by international
organizations. Palestinian citizens of Israel have better living conditions, but
the decades-old Arab boycott of them has isolated them. The Arab League must be
blind and deaf not to distinguish between the victim and the executioner,
between the occupier and the occupied. If I had not known who worked at the Arab
League when all these decisions regarding Palestinians were taken, I would have
thought it was run on the basis of a conspiracy by Tel Aviv. However, the road
to hell is paved with good intentions. The League's boycott has facilitated the
occupation's task of prohibiting dealing with Palestinians. More Jews than Arabs
have visited Jerusalem and its mosques and churches, as Arab governments
prohibit their citizens from visiting them. Palestinians no longer have any hope
in a political or military solution. Time and Arabs' attitudes toward the
Palestinian cause have proven that it is merely a soccer ball they play with to
serve their own interests. It is prohibited to buy from the Palestinians, to
sell to them, to visit them, to host them, to pray in their mosques or to play
football with them. The Arab League must be blind and deaf not to distinguish
between the victim and the executioner, between the occupier and the occupied.
It is time to reconsider the concept and policy on how to deal with Palestine
and Israel. This political absurdity established by naive Arab politicians - who
half a century ago thought the Israelis would pack their bags and return to New
York, Saint Petersburg and London - must end. Millions of Palestinians pay the
price every day as they continue to be besieged by both Arabs and Israelis.
Iran’s hardliners to Obama: Our house, our rules
Joyce Karam/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
Following the nuclear deal with Iran last July, there was a sense of hope in
Washington and Western capitals that the three-decades-old animosity between
Tehran and the United States would dissipate, and that the moderate camp who
championed the agreement would be strengthened. Four months later, this
sentiment is largely disrupted as Iran’s revolutionary guards redraw the old
lines of escalation with the United States by taking more prisoners, humiliating
the moderates and ramping up their regional role. Iran's latest detention of
U.S. resident and Lebanese tech professional Nizar Zakka and Iranian-American
businessman Siamak Namazi resets the clock internally to the pre- Hassan Rowhani
and Jawad Zarif victory in Vienna, and sends a clear signal that the hardliners
are still in charge and are clenching their fist towards the West. Regionally,
the hardliners have also staged a comeback post-nuclear deal with their
celebrated General Qassem Soleimani visiting Russia twenty days after the
agreement, and dispatching his proxies thereafter to Syria and Iraq. The message
from the hardliners, three months before the Iran’s legislative elections, is
the bad blood with the United States won’t fade away with business opportunities
and nuclear understandings in place, and that Tehran’s bellicose regional role
won’t be restrained by its openness to the West. From Bahrain to Iraq to Syria
and Lebanon, the post-nuclear deal Middle East is witnessing a deeper
polarization between Tehran and its Arab neighbors.
Political and economic red flags
In the aftermath of the nuclear deal, many U.S. businesses including Apple and
Boeing showed interest in the Iranian market and that the diplomatic detente
would open the doors of a vibrant consumer’s market. Not so fast is the response
from Iran’s hardliners who intend with the arrest of Namazi particularly to
disincentivize the U.S. business community from entering Iran. The two arrests
also humiliate the moderate camp in Iran who was behind inviting and building
bridges with both Zakka and Namazi. The Lebanese professional was invited to
Iran by the vice president for Women and Family Affairs, Shahindokht Molaverdi,
while Namazi was a leading advocate for rapprochement between U.S. and Iran and
ardent supporter of the deal. Their arrest is a slap in the face for the Rowhani
camp, and a rude awakening for the West on who is calling the shots inside Iran.
In a nutshell, the hardliners are making the case that the bet on the moderates
could end you up in jail in Iran, and that rebalancing the internal politics in
their favor can not be restrained by the West. Zakka and Namazi now join three
other U.S. prisoners in Iran: Saeed Abedini, Jason Rezaian, and Amir Hekmati.
Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter, was handed a “guilty verdict” last month by
a secretive Revolutionary court and could face up to 20 years in jail. While the
Obama administration officials stress their efforts to release the U.S.
prisoners, Iran is publicly defying Washington by detaining more Americans.
Regional escalation
Iran’s hardliners' dance is not only on display domestically but is also
happening in full force on the regional front where the IRGC is flexing more
muscle since July. From Bahrain to Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, the post-nuclear
deal Middle East is witnessing a deeper polarization between Tehran and its Arab
neighbors, and a more fierce confrontation in the proxy battlefields. In
Bahrain, and on several instances following the nuclear deal the last one being
in September, explosives smuggled by boats from Iran were reportedly seized by
the Bahraini authorities. While in Syria, Soleimani's trip to Moscow twenty days
following the deal, laid the groundwork for the Russian air offensive supported
by Iranian backed proxies on the ground in Aleppo and near Latakia. In Iraq,
more photos of Soleimani surfaced from Beiji last month while visiting
pro-Iranian militias that are fighting ISIS. Iran is also using its influence to
block attempts to form a tribal Sunni force funded by the Iraqi government
against ISIS. U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter told a Senate committee last
week that “[Iraqi Prime Minister] Abadi does not have complete sway over what
happens in Iraq.”Interestingly as well, Hezbollah's rhetoric against the United
States has dramatically escalated following the nuclear deal. In his last
speech, the Secretary General of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah lambasted the United
States policies in the region, accusing Washington of waging “ a new war, a war
on everyone who refused to submit to its hegemonic domination." No breakthroughs
are on the horizon in Lebanon as well in electing a President or bridging the
political divide. Whether the hardliners' comeback will last in Iran is
contingent on the parliamentary elections and the wishes of the Supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. During the nuclear negotiations with the West, it was
the Supreme Leader’s authority that gave Rowhani and Zarif the mandate to
negotiate a deal. This mandate does not appear to have been granted to the
moderates on regional issues and is being marginalized domestically by the
hardliners. Maintaining the animosity towards the U.S. that has charged the
revolution since 1979 is still the tool of the trade for the hardliners in Iran.
The IRGC is making the point through prisoners and proxies that Obama's
handshake with Zarif in New York can not translate into business as usual in
Iran.
There can be no peace without justice in Syria
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
The United States, European countries, Russia, Iran and Arab states met in
Vienna last week to try to resolve the Syrian conflict. Predictably they failed
to reach an agreement, but the meeting was reportedly not altogether fruitless,
and participants agreed to meet again in two weeks. Getting these countries to
agree on a course of action for Syria is easier than actually achieving peace,
because there is no guarantee that a deal agreed by these parties will be the
right deal for Syria. There can be no peace without justice - this has been the
lesson of so many other conflicts. However, it seems unlikely that Syrians will
get justice from the negotiations.
Accountability
The Shiite Alawite regime in Syria has committed crimes against humanity,
particularly toward the Sunni majority. Shiites fear brutal reprisals if the
regime falls, and not without reason. Meanwhile, Sunnis are unlikely to stop
fighting until they can be satisfied that justice will be served for the
hundreds of thousands dead and more than 10 million displaced. there needs to be
an agreement that all the leaders of the various factions should, as much as
possible, be held accountable for atrocities against civilians. Perhaps the only
recent example of a country that has successfully emerged from a similar civil
war is Bosnia in the 1990s. Its success was predicated on two factors: the main
instigators of the civil war and the worst abuses against civilians were handed
over to be tried for crimes against humanity at The Hague; and the country was
effectively partitioned along ethnic lines. Both these things will be necessary
in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad and his leading commanders need to be tried
for crimes against humanity. However, rebel groups - not least the Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) - are similarly guilty of such crimes. As such, there
needs to be an agreement that all the leaders of the various factions should, as
much as possible, be held accountable for atrocities against civilians. In
addition, the country may need to be federalized or partitioned along sectarian
lines. Assad’s fate is the main sticking point. Russia and Iran fear losing
their regional influence if his regime falls. Both countries have invested
hugely in the Assad dynasty for decades, and will not just give into demands to
have him removed. If they could be persuaded that Assad himself could be
disposed of, they would insist that the core group of people that constitutes
his regime remains de-facto in power in some shape or other. U.S. and European
negotiators could be persuaded to accept such an arrangement, especially in the
current climate where Russia and Iran seem to hold all the cards in terms of
military deployment on the ground in Syria. The problem is that if Syrian Sunnis
perceive that not all those responsible for the many unspeakable atrocities
against their community have been held to account, they will not stop fighting.
Partition
The idea of federalizing or partitioning Syria is not on the cards for any of
the negotiators. The West has a seemingly innate distaste toward adjusting
borders, even when it is patently clear that those borders are meaningless,
senseless, and only promote conflict. Russia and Iran have no interest in seeing
their client state diminished in such a way.Yet by now it should be clear to any
observer that there is no such thing as a “Syrian” people. Alawites, Sunni Arabs
and Kurds have made it amply clear in the past four and a half years of conflict
that they do not feel themselves to be part of the same national identity. They
are not a national community. They are a number of sectarian and ethnic
communities trapped in a perpetual struggle of us versus them within the prison
of the “national” borders of the Syrian state. Should we not even entertain the
notion that these communities should be allowed to go their separate ways in
peace?
Russia and Iran: Different goals behind calls for Syrian elections?
Manuel Almeida/Al Arabiya/November 05/15
Very few regular observers of the Arab world’s intricate politics would have
expected to see the day Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, and Iran’s
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, calling for elections in an Arab country.
Just a few days ago, Khamenei called for elections in Syria as the way to solve
the crisis that has brought the country to its knees, with terrible
repercussions in the region and beyond. "The solution to the Syrian question is
elections, and for this it is necessary to stop military and financial aid to
the opposition,” Iran’s Supreme Leader is reported to have said during the
annual address to Iran’s diplomats. The Iranian call for a new round of
elections in Syria after last year’s came, at first sight, to support the
Russian position. In late October, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister, had
argued in an interview with Russian state TV that all “external players” trying
to resolve the Syrian crisis should push for a political settlement involving
“both parliamentary and presidential elections.”The Russian need to push for a
favourable outcome of the Syrian crisis gained a sense of urgency with the
growing weakness of Assad’s forces, as well as the advances by the various armed
opposition groups and ISIS.
Lavrov’s comments followed Bashar al-Assad’s surprising visit to Moscow and,
save for the mention of presidential elections, reiterated a point Vladimir
Putin had already made. In September, the President of Russia had told reporters
that Assad was ready to hold parliamentary elections and share power with the
"healthy" Syrian opposition.
2014’s farce
If the Syrian presidential election in June last year is anything to go by,
another election of this sort would make a mockery of all Syrians unwilling and
unable to participate, including the Syrian opposition, the millions of Syrian
refugees and internally displaced people, as well as those who live in rebel- or
ISIS-held areas. According to Syria’s constitution, Assad was required to seek
re-election to remain in power before his second seven-year presidential term
expired in July 2014. Thus, elections were held amidst the brutal civil war. The
election, held only in regime-controlled areas, was backed and endorsed by
Russia and Iran. It featured only three candidates: Assad himself and two others
who tried to pose as independents. The result was predictable: according to the
government’s version, Assad got almost 88.7% percent of the vote, while the two
so-called challengers (Hassan al-Nouri and Maher Hajjar) together gathered 7.5%.
Perhaps the most sordid detail of all were the various parliamentarians and
other figures from populist regimes (including Brazil, Uganda and Venezuela) who
came to observe the election and endorsed it as “free and fair”, as did Iranian
and Russian observers. The fact the winner was a mass-murderer directly and
indirectly responsible for the death of over a quarter of a million people and
counting was irrelevant for them. Contrary to what President of Iran, Hasan
Rowhani, claimed before-hand about what kind of election Syria needed, the
process was anything but “free and fair”. A Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman
still noted the election was "naturally not 100 percent democratic" given the
circumstances, but then concluded there were no reasons to question the
legitimacy of the election.
Russia, the wild card
Until recently, the argument for holding elections as an almost miraculous
formula to address political turmoil in the Middle East was a typical feature of
Western governments’ and organizations’ approach to the region. This approach
had lost some its appeal after it was applied in Afghanistan to elect Hamid
Karzai or in the chaos of Iraq following the U.S. led invasion, but to an extent
the Arab uprisings revived the idea. So why are the leaders of both Russia and
Iran, who have a peculiar and rather instrumental relationship with the concept
of elections itself, now claiming that voting is the only way for the Syrians to
get out of their quagmire? The timing could explain much. With direct talks
involving all relevant regional and global players (for the first time since
2011) set to proceed, Iran and Russia are pushing for an outcome that in their
perspective most suits their interests while they still have the ability to do
so.
The Russian need to push for a favourable outcome of the Syrian crisis gained a
sense of urgency with the growing weakness of Assad’s forces, as well as the
advances by the various armed opposition groups and ISIS. This precipitated the
Russian intervention to prop-up the regime, which in turn allowed the various
pro-regime forces including the pro-Iranian militias to mount a
counter-offensive. An election in the near future could only result in one of
two outcomes: the victory of Assad or an approved regime insider. Either
scenario should allow Iran and Russia to continue to defend their key strategic
interests in Syria. It could, as some suspect, provide more ground to a plan to
push for a de-facto Alawite-controlled state in Western Syria that would
continue to leave the doors of the Eastern Mediterranean to Russians and
Iranians.
However, things may be more complicated. Russia and Iran might be calling for an
election but it is unclear whether they want the same thing out of that election
and when it should take place. Iran is unlikely to welcome an election that bars
Assad and his various family members from running, whereas Russia might be
amenable to the possibility of a new leadership that could appeal to the
moderate opposition. Earlier this week, the words of Russian Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Maria Zakharova that keeping Assad in power was neither crucial nor
a matter of principle for Russia received wide media coverage. Yet, as early as
2012, Putin himself said: “We aren’t concerned about Assad’s fate, we understand
that the same family has been in power for 40 years and changes are obviously
needed.” The question remains, does he mean it?